Seriously?

KIDDING modified

Over the last two days dozens of people posted the same article in the comments section of this blog, in hopes I’d be proven an idiot. While that’s a low bar to clear, this didn’t do it. Let me tell you why.

For those who think Canada’s being overrun with rich people speaking Mandarin, the headline said it all: “Chinese investors buy one-third of Vancouver homes: National Bank estimate.” It was just what a lot of them wanted to read, as it confirmed their bias, observations, prejudice or the urban myth they’ve adopted. And, wow, it came from a bank. Gotta be true, right?

Actually the National Bank, the sixth largest, based in Quebec, should be ashamed of its analyst, Peter Routledge – who spends most of his career dissing Canadian bank stocks. This report was arguably the worst ever to leave a research shop. It was even more pathetic than one done by a Van-based real estate company who counted the “Chinese ethnic-sounding names” on sales reports to determine the nationality of buyers.

Unbelievable, that was. Fantastic, this is.

The report’s headline conclusion: a third of Van houses are falling into Chinese hands. That compares with the 5% estimate adopted by both the BC government and the provincial realtors’ association, plus a survey of members done by the local real estate board. In other words, what Routledge ‘discovered’ would be a six-fold jump over the best estimate of everybody else.

So, how did he do it? Where did this data come from?

He made it up. Routledge admits it was a “back of the envelope” conclusion that he drew from 100% non-Canadian data that “could have built-in biases that overstate (or understate) the amount of capital inflows.” So, the methodology, whatever it was, probably sucked.

But, wait. We actually do know the methodology. Routledge took total sales figures for purchases by non-US residents from the American National Association of Realtors, which showed a big jump last year in Chinese action. He then found a completely unrelated survey done by the UK-based Financial Times which (in a multiple choice format) queried 77 high net worth Chinese guys who had purchased real estate abroad. Yes, 77 people. “Admittedly not a statistically significant sample size,” Routledge admits. No kidding.

Anyway, he took the results of the Times survey then applied the ratios of buyers in Vancouver (there were nine of them) and multiplied the US numbers by this factor to come up with a total probable dollar investment value for the YVR market – assuming any of this was representative of the larger wholes.

That led him to this: “One could hypothesize that for every four high net worth buyers from China who purchase a U.S. residence, one purchases a residence in Toronto; and, for every three high net worth investors from China who purchase a U.S. residence, one purchases a residence in Vancouver.” Of course, given the fact Routledge had zero Canadian stats to go on, he could only deal in probable dollar values. That means, even if he were correct, there is no way of knowing how many homes in Vancouver went into Chinese nationals’ hands. It certainly was not 33%.

“Due to the lack of Canadian data, the analyst based his estimate on a Financial Times survey and data from the US,” blog dog Roberta writes. “Makes me wonder who was actually paying for this thing.” Me, too. Bogus report.

But is there any other explanation why Canadian real estate costs a stupid amount, especially on the wet coast? The International Monetary Fund thinks so. Here it is…

DEBT LEVEL modified

Cheng Hoon Lim is an assistant director in the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department and concludes that houses here are too expensive because money is too cheap.

“Low mortgage rates are an important factor feeding the housing market boom,” she writes in a report. “This has helped keep interest payments low even as the size of the average mortgage has risen. As the chart shows, the share of interest payments in households’ disposable income declined from 9% in 2008 to 6% in 2015, while the average size of mortgages increased by some 40% over the same period. This means more households are able to afford more expensive homes, which, in turn, prompts households to borrow more money and get further into debt, while house prices continue to be pushed upward.”

As this blog has pointed out with utterly boring, mind-euthanizing regularity, rates and prices are negatively correlated. Houses are not intrinsically worth a greater amount, but the carrying costs have fallen with the rate plunge – so prices have shot higher to fill the gap. The end result is clear – (a) houses have never cost more, (b) household debt’s never been higher and (c) property risk is extreme, as rates will eventually normalize and debt servicing costs swell.

But, but, but, the deniers and garth’s-a-weenie crowd protest. If it were just cheap rates then why wouldn’t houses in Regina cost the same as in Kitsilano? That’s easy. Normal people live in Regina.

YVRers are the most property-obsessed hornies in the nation. It’s a cult, evidenced by BC having the only negative savings rate. Layered over that is the heavy Asian presence that has always characterized the city, but now exacerbates and visually magnifies the impact of foreign buyers. Do they exist? Of course, and are concentrated in certain neighbourhoods. But this is hardly unique to Vancouver. Toronto’s the same – as is ever major city on the continent. And yet, no moans from 416.

I know this won’t change a single mind. Foreigners are great scapegoats, and give guaranteed media exposure to slagging careers. Ask Peter Routledge.

244 comments ↓

#1 TheSpangler on 03.24.16 at 5:29 pm

Close to the top!

#2 3s on 03.24.16 at 5:35 pm

Well what do the know… They make it up over here in Australia too! To the extent that International Criminal Investigation shops warn that the land down under is a laundromat for dirty yellow money. Falls in the same league as corrupt politicians I guess – no data to support any of it right, just a hunch;)

#3 Alberta Ed on 03.24.16 at 5:35 pm

Is T2 using Routledge’s methodology on the new Liberal budget?

#4 Randy on 03.24.16 at 5:40 pm

So it’s just a bunch of greedy millennials and their parents blowing into the bubble ?

#5 Johnny D on 03.24.16 at 5:43 pm

Normal people live in Regina? That’s not what I hear.

#6 Westvan on 03.24.16 at 5:49 pm

Stupid study full of holes no denying that, also not the first piece of fiction from either camp peddled as fact. Take the cmhc study of “purpose built full rental buildings” which then the media and this blog took and twisted into a study of all strata condos also totally irrelevant comparisons to Victoria . Both sides twist facts and figures to drive their agenda this blog included. There is currently no data to support either claim.

#7 acdel on 03.24.16 at 5:49 pm

Good Blog Garth, foreign money has some influence but the underlining fact is plain greed, you reap what you sow.

T2 budget- god help us; how much of this 30 billion deficit is actually going to infrastructure?? Last I heard 3.5 billion, unless someone out there is going to challenge this.

On a depressing note; we lost another great one; RIP Gary Shandler!

#8 Malik on 03.24.16 at 5:51 pm

Garth Sir, I apologize and again agree to disagree, but interest rates will not rise in near for seen future, at least next 15 years, for multiple reasons.
A) Govt will not want to be blamed and neither will want to lose on taxes.
B) For past 30 years, interest rates are in declining trajectory.
C) Canada will have a negative interest rate model adopted after next 5 years, and that will be kind of tax the rich.
I really admire your intelligence and foresight but in this era there is no value for savers and intelligence.
House prices will only go up here as they have been going, forget about the boomers as there are scores of people ( Rich by Canadian standard of living) living in developing countries who will pay the high price to migrate to Canada aka CANADIAN IMMIGRATION.
Those people will be awarded immigration and houses will keep on going as they will cover the tab.
Think about it there are no jobs, no industries, only biggest job market is HOUSING and you still claim that houses will go down. Not going to happen here.

The Bank of Canada will raise rates starting next year, according to most analysts. Get ready for it. — Garth

#9 ILoveCharts on 03.24.16 at 5:51 pm

The analyst from Quebec put together a shoddy research report. It does not actually have any impact on the reality in the Vancouver area and should not be a part of the conversation. Forget the report – it does’t confirm or deny anything.

Garth:
Take a look on realtor.ca and do a filter for homes in the Vancouver/Burnaby/North Shore, etc. region under $1.4 million and you get 237 listings – most of which are in Port Moody, Coquitlam, etc.
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/map.aspx#CultureId=1&ApplicationId=1&RecordsPerPage=9&MaximumResults=9&PropertySearchTypeId=1&PriceMax=1400000&TransactionTypeId=2&StoreyRange=0-0&BuildingTypeId=1&BedRange=0-0&BathRange=0-0&LongitudeMin=-123.43249952793103&LongitudeMax=-122.88901960849743&LatitudeMin=49.19342605349809&LatitudeMax=49.38019182307305&SortOrder=A&SortBy=1&viewState=m&Longitude=-122.949996948242&Latitude=49.25&ZoomLevel=13&CurrentPage=1

Now look for homes above $1.4 million in the same region. 1378 listings!
https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/map.aspx#CultureId=1&ApplicationId=1&RecordsPerPage=9&MaximumResults=9&PropertySearchTypeId=1&PriceMin=1400000&TransactionTypeId=2&StoreyRange=0-0&BuildingTypeId=1&BedRange=0-0&BathRange=0-0&LongitudeMin=-123.43249952793103&LongitudeMax=-122.88901960849743&LatitudeMin=49.19342605349809&LatitudeMax=49.38019182307305&SortOrder=A&SortBy=1&viewState=m&Longitude=-122.949996948242&Latitude=49.25&ZoomLevel=13&CurrentPage=1

You can’t buy a $1.6 million home on a mortgage with a Vancouver job. Are you actually willing to stand behind a statement that 4 out of 5 home buyers in Vancouver is taking out a mortgage to buy these homes at these $1.4m+ prices? Have you seen the open houses here? These are not locals (and yes, I know the difference between a local Asian dude and a foreign one and this isn’t a discussion about race.)

When you say “certain neighbourhoods” do you mean the entire cities of Vancouver, North Vancouver, Richmond, Burnaby, and West Vancouver?

Some more fuel for the fire…
http://www.traveldailynews.com/news/article/71149/xiamen-airlines-to-land-in

Meaningless. People purchasing $1.6 million houses are moving up. They’re not first-timers trying to buy on $70,000 incomes with million-dollar mortgages, but rather buy with equity from previous homes. Duh. — Garth

#10 TRUMP on 03.24.16 at 5:51 pm

Peter Routledge……

For advertising false information….

I’M COMING TO SUE YOU.

#11 Frank on 03.24.16 at 5:55 pm

Don’t expect any change. Interest rates will hold Pat in Canada for another 5 years.

Don’t gamble on that. — Garth

#12 gut check on 03.24.16 at 5:58 pm

ha ha haaaaa!

As soon as I saw the Peter Routledge article today I said to myself, “Well, I know what Garth is scrambling to write right now.”

If there were clearly demonstrable facts about this issue then all one would need do would be to point to them.

It’s only when the facts are in dispute, or data non-existent (such as in this matter) that one needs to repeat oneself and propagandize.

Shame that we can’t clear this up once and for all with real numbers collected from real transactions by a real 3rd party agency.

#13 ILoveCharts on 03.24.16 at 6:07 pm

“Meaningless. People purchasing $1.6 million houses are moving up. They’re not first-timers trying to buy on $70,000 incomes with million-dollar mortgages, but rather buy with equity from previous homes. Duh. — Garth”

So your hypothesis is that a majority of people buying the$1.6m+ homes are simply moving up and that the entire thing is a pyramid fueled by mortgage debt?

It doesn’t really make sense…

Let’s assume a guy buys a house for $800k with a huge mortgage. A few years later he hasn’t paid down much of the mortgage but the house is worth $1.2 million. He then sells and now has a $400k down payment for his next house – which will also be worth $1.2 million so he hasn’t actually climbed the ladder at all. Also, who bought his house for $1.2 million? Where did they get the money. It’s not adding up. The only way this equation works is if outsiders are putting in significant amounts at the top. At one time, that may have been limited to neighbourhoods but it is now entire cities.

I do strongly encourage you to spend a weekend at open houses here.

You don’t quite understand the market, do you? Of course people are buying with equity and new debt. — Garth

#14 S.Bby on 03.24.16 at 6:07 pm

We really do need higher interest rates.

#15 West Coast on 03.24.16 at 6:11 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/dont-let-your-bigger-home-own-you/article29362519/

Finally a bit of real estate honesty from the G&M!

#16 Malik on 03.24.16 at 6:14 pm

Garth Sir comment
“The Bank of Canada will raise rates starting next year, according to most analysts. Get ready for it. — Garth ”

Sir
Interest rates will not go up here for at least next 15 years, it does not matter what USA does ( which I guarantee will only have at the most one increase this year of .25%).
Canadian economy is not in a condition to raise rates, no jobs, no manufacturing, no industries, very less intelligence around, fragile economy cannot bear the pain of housing collapse.
Canada has learned a lesson from US, Europe, Japan, etc.
No interest rate rise, guaranteed. I can bet my life on it. :)
People who have bought in last eight years, even two months ago have made money and they have equity in their homes now, even if they bought on a very high leverage.
Point is only housing sells here :)
My humble opinion and off course you might know more but so far I have been renting here and have accumulated almost 200K in 7 yrs, but I still regret deeply not buying here 7 yrs ago when I arrived here.
I will buy it next year when my lease is over

#17 pathcontrolmonk on 03.24.16 at 6:14 pm

Garth, a “heavy Asian presence” has not always characterized the city.

#18 mitzerboy aka queencitykid on 03.24.16 at 6:14 pm

we r very normal out here Seriously?

#19 gut check on 03.24.16 at 6:15 pm

Has anyone taken a look at the homepage of the realtor.ca website? The have the slogan “NO REGRETS” and a picture of a couple carrying a table – the faces on the couple are priceless.

I wonder if they did it on purpose.

#20 acdel on 03.24.16 at 6:16 pm

Interesting!

http://calgaryherald.com/business/energy/billionaire-murray-edwards-changes-residency-from-calgary-to-united-kingdom

#21 Smoking Man on 03.24.16 at 6:17 pm

#4 Randy on 03.24.16 at 5:40 pm
So it’s just a bunch of greedy millennials and their parents blowing into the bubble ?
………………………
Exactly

#22 Scumop on 03.24.16 at 6:17 pm

HAM. So lets see if I care (spoiler: no)…

A bona fide Asian arrives to buy an overpriced shack for $5mill.

A seller collects $5mill, makes say $3mill, retires to scenic Nova Scotia.
Thats called a win.

A person who wanted that house bitches and moans because that house was 4.5mill last year. He (she? they?) could not afford it then.

That’s called whining without cause.

The score:

Asian: Owns a crappy house. -1

Seller: Smiling in Nova Scotia. +1

Whiner: Arrives here to b&m. 0

Canada: $5million in new money injected. +1

Its really too bad the HAM myth is not true. Would be good for Canada if it was.

#23 ILoveCharts on 03.24.16 at 6:20 pm

“You don’t quite understand the market, do you? Of course people are buying with equity and new debt. — Garth”

At the average rate you can pay down a mortgage with a $70,000 job, how much equity can you build in a few years?

Your new equity is maybe $50-$60k + any increase in the value of the property.

When you sell and go to buy a new place, you will get the same size mortgage you had at the last place but you’ll buy a place that is $50-60k more expensive + any increase in property value at your last place.

For average folks in Vancouver to be moving up into $1.6m+ homes, that increase in property value has to be astronomic – and that has to trickle down from new outside money coming in. There is no way for the equation to work as a closed system. Someone has to start the process by being able to pay a premium without needing a $1.6m mortgage.

And when the vast majority of houses increase in value at such an incredibly rapid rate, the influence of the outside money can not be denied.

We probably actually have enough info from the real estate board and CMHC to model the impact of the outside money – it is significant.

#24 Mean Gene on 03.24.16 at 6:20 pm

But but but…. Buttheads abound in Vanity City.

#25 saskatoon on 03.24.16 at 6:21 pm

#206 BlackDog

“Further to my prior comment, your attitude is what is disgusting, not the three women who were brave enough to come forward with their experiences of abuse. To clarify for you, the women were not the ones on trial, though it sure did SEEM that way.

Ghomeshi was found not guilty, but that doesn’t mean he was innocent (read the Maccleans article I referenced to give you some idea of his character).”

—————————————

these women were not “brave enough to come forward with their experiences of abuse”…

they are lying, devious, slutty scum…who conspired to put an innocent in prison for many years.

jian has been found NOT GUILTY in a court of law–evidence was presented…and THIS EVIDENCE was entirely “incapable” of supporting a guilty verdict.

yet, you say this:

“Ghomeshi was found not guilty, but that doesn’t mean he was innocent”

YES. IT DOES MEAN THIS:

IT MEANS THAT HE IS INNOCENT.

your irrationality disgusts me.

you are the most dangerous people.

#26 NextYear on 03.24.16 at 6:21 pm

If Foreign buyer have no impact in Vancouver Market then why not ban it completely and prove it… I mean the market should be no different after they ban foreigner to buy as apparently foreigner are not buying anyway? This way we can all just stop talking\speculating about it.

They tell us that there is a minuscule amount of foreign buyer and that it has no impact on the market and price so banning it completely should be no big deal right??

#27 joe f on 03.24.16 at 6:23 pm

Garth, I normally agree with most of what you say, however your information about foreign buyers is supported by nothing, which makes you no different than the reporters making claims otherwise. Obviously cheap, lax lending has been a major contributor Canada wide, but that does not explain the rabid bidding wars in Vancouver. It would be really helpful to get some transparency on this issue from a reputable source.

#28 paul on 03.24.16 at 6:27 pm

Anybody whom seriously believes that Chinese Dudes with money is the cause of the building real estate bubble in this country is dreaming , i happen to know a couple of these dudes both have told me they wouldn’t buy a piece of real estate in Toronto or Yvr Reason High Risk Investment that is over valued Seems that Chinese Dudes With Money have more common sense than the most of us

#29 Bobby13 on 03.24.16 at 6:29 pm

Yes, people are buying with equity and taking on more debt chasing prices up. I’m not sure how they are going to raise rates though with the position they are in and where it looks likes we’re headed, by next year even mainstream may admit to being in recession. Its a laugh planning a year from now the way markets are chopping along now may as well go to the casino.

#30 Souvereigninternational on 03.24.16 at 6:31 pm

Just watched Kevin O’leary on BEN trashing the useless foreign buyers research. Mr. Wonderful for next PM of Canada. Go Kevin!!!!

#31 cmj on 03.24.16 at 6:31 pm

I’m disgusted with this report from Peter Routledge. It reflects poorly on National Bank since Routledge produced sloppy research. Bloomberg’s interview made it clearly evident that he had nothing to really substansiate his findings.
Fortunately with today’s internet, we are able to get to the root of what is fact. Our YVR real estate market doesn’t need any fueling to heighten the frenzy. How irresponsible!

#32 understood by few on 03.24.16 at 6:35 pm

#8 Malik on 03.24.16 at 5:51 pm

A) Govt will not want to be blamed and neither will want to lose on taxes.

—————-

What? You know the government doesn’t make the decision, right?

BoC rate will increase as soon as it’s feasibly possible. As for fixed rate mortgages, that’s tied to the bond market.

The only tools the gov has to try to keep the bubble going (if that were their goal) is to extend amortization and allow 0% down. Both would be stupid.

#33 economictsunami on 03.24.16 at 6:36 pm

More importantly 2/3rds of Van houses must have been bought by…?

Central banks are already doing the unthinkable – you just don’t know it

“”For the first time in the history of central banking, private-sector agents will be able to borrow money from the ECB and give back less than the capital borrowed,” says Mahe. ”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/03/17/central-banks-are-already-doing-the-unthinkable—you-just-dont/

#34 BC on 03.24.16 at 6:43 pm

I am always amazed when I read through the comments here at the number of readers who are “positive” that rates will not increase anytime soon for a whole variety of “logical” reasons.
Despite your best attempts to educate Garth, these people are betting everything that they are right and that we will not see rate increases.
I hope they are right but just stop to think if they are wrong (at least a 50% chance) and they will be saddled with enormous debt and increasing payments costs on a decreasing valued asset!! What a risk just to have a house!!!

#35 Goldie on 03.24.16 at 6:45 pm

HAM, and their proxy buyers, are without a doubt a major force in the greater Vancouver area. You outsiders can deny it all you want but those that live here know better.

Disclaimer: I support a free market for real estate, so HAM itself is not a big deal to me. I’m mostly involved in the debate because I can’t stand the PC narrative/denial and the race baiting. Telling the truth is not “racist”.

#36 Jordan on 03.24.16 at 6:47 pm

No other way of explaining that Vancouver is far beyond any other city in terms of housing costs.

#37 acdel on 03.24.16 at 6:47 pm

#22 Scumop

Good post! Cannot blame an individual that purchased low and are holding out for the best price to sell; but to completely blame it on foreign money is ludicrous.

I have been reading posts from the west coast for the past few months and noticed a pattern; the smart one’s are selling out and moving to an affordable location.
The others are holding out which intern causes real-estate prices to rise and makes it unaffordable for all the young bright minds who are leaving in record numbers.

It’s a catch 22 situation; hold out and make the most you can to help out your children or sell for the good life.

Make your millions, and move to a location where one can enjoy one’s retirement as well as help your children in a part of Canada that is affordable. Vancouver is lost, it’s gone and it will never go back to what it once was, get over it!

What do I know; I just a normal guy out there!

#38 Nemesis on 03.24.16 at 6:51 pm

#I’llSeeYourChenHoongLim… #AndRaiseYouOneProfessorLey,Or… #Aren’tGraphsFun!

[SCMP] – Immigration, property prices and Vancouver: An expert’s view

http://www.scmp.com/comment/blogs/article/1440792/immigration-property-prices-and-vancouver-experts-view

#39 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 03.24.16 at 6:51 pm

“The Bank of Canada will raise rates starting next year, according to most analysts. Get ready for it. — Garth”

Make a Garth dot plot!
___________________________________________
#11 Frank on 03.24.16 at 5:55 pm

Don’t expect any change. Interest rates will hold Pat in Canada for another 5 years.

Don’t gamble on that. — Garth
____________________________________________

History is with you Frank

https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-8W9wAI_p0AA/VvNC2AiW0vI/AAAAAAAAQgY/fMQaU9woz-MipRNKHglt38TGgUGmVfMpQ/s1600/Screen%2BShot%2B2016-03-22%2Bat%2B2.26.13%2BPM.png

#40 Neil M on 03.24.16 at 6:53 pm

A lady at work recently priced her Richmond home 200k above what market value was showing, held off offers for a week, 5 Asian offers came in and poof 200k over value achieved. Great time for people to cash in but this city may as well float across the pacific because it is no longer Canadian. As for me, it opened my eyes and I have requested a transfer to Victoria. No hope for a 35 year old with 2 kids to have a family home here

What’s an ‘Asian offer’? From Asia, or from Asians living here? Or don’t you care? — Garth

#41 Malik on 03.24.16 at 6:55 pm

Too bad sir, totally against the image I had imagined of yours. If somebody makes an honest attempt to make a point on your blog and if that opinion/attempt is strong enough to raise some question marks about your free advises here on your blog, your answer to that person is “you will not publish that opinion”

Why did not you answer or publish my comment about Gold, preferred shares, or gold miners and simply discarded my comment.
I am not sure if that is a deliberate attempt of what???
CPD — preferred shares are losers
Gold and Gold miners are winners
At least right now.

Not a gold blog. Period. — Garth

#42 tundra pete on 03.24.16 at 6:57 pm

In 1885 Canadian Parliament passed the Chinese Immigration Act to discourage Chinese people from entering Canada after the completion of the C.P. Railway.

The tax was abolished by the Chinese Immigration Act of 1923. The original Act had stopped all Chinese Immigration except for business people, clergy, educators and students. The “head tax” started at $50 in 1885 and went to $500 by 1904. A total of $33 million was paid by more than 81 000 Chinese.

To this day Chinese Canadian Community continues to seek redress from the Canadian Government for the Chinese head tax.

Fortunately there is no tax for anyone to enter Canada and purchase YVR shacks.

#43 Jhonny on 03.24.16 at 6:57 pm

You know Garth- you are a real daisy. You devout an entire article attempting to rebuke the idea that foreigners are using Canadian real estate as a money laundering facility. ALL LIES. Chinese ‘Hot Money’ has NOTHING to do with real estate prices?? Of course it does. Canadians who have any nationalism left don’t like it- and we are all racist bigots?? NO- I am Canadian- I am proud of my country and my heritage- I am pissed off that people who did not create their wealth in Canada are screwing my bottom line by jacking prices of housing- By forcing me to change the rules that I live by- For forcing me to install a bisexual bathroom in my business- For wanting to live in my country but not by our heritage!!
You want to come live here- abide by OUR laws- play by our rules- don’t think you can by up parcels of our land and then continue to live by the rules of the country you came from.
“Look over here- but but don’t look over there!” If the government and media LIE about one small aspect of the economy- What would stop them from lying about other. ?? The WHOLE FRICKN STOCK MARKET IS A BUNCH OF FICTION!! Manipulated to the last breath just before it blows up! The bail-in legislation is there to confiscate our bank accounts!! The world is run by a group of psychopathic billionaires like the Rockefellers, Rothschilds, Bush’s, Soros’s, Ect.
Oh- and the rabbit hole goes much deeper then this- just ask Philip Schneider but the sheeple are no where near that mind fk! How the hell can you possibly argue that they lie and make stuff up ONLY in selective areas. You have to be working on behalf of the globalist. HAVE TO BE. NO one could be this inept.
I love a good whiskey on a Thursday!

#44 Bottoms_Up on 03.24.16 at 7:00 pm

Definitively skewed to the high side, abnormal year for money inflow to USA, plus the Chinese would rather reside in the USA (higher demand for USA than Canada). Hence his 6x over-estimate.

#45 understood by few on 03.24.16 at 7:05 pm

#27 joe f on 03.24.16 at 6:23 pm
..lax lending has been a major contributor Canada wide, but that does not explain the rabid bidding wars in Vancouver.

—————
So it has to be foreign money? That’s what you’re implying.

It doesn’t have to be anything. The belief there is foreign money (regardless of it existing) is enough to push panic. People are afraid of being priced out of the market and they desperately want to own.

Same thing is happening in Victoria. Homes being big up 100K+ over asking with asking prices that would have been laughed at 6 months ago as being absurd. It’s definitely not foreign money. There may be some Vancouver money in the mix, but not enough to justify the fear and panic we are seeing.

#46 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.24.16 at 7:07 pm

While I agree with what Garth has said.
What boggles my pea(pee?) sized brain is…..
Why isnt there quantifiable data on sales. purchases. etc.
I realize the Harper govt gutted Stats Canada but one would think that other govt agencies ( CRA for instance) would be a tad interested in potential tax revenue…….
In this day and age when everything is emailed, copied, saved, etc. it shouldne be a quantum leap to correlate data and reach an unbiased, objective statement about the 604 area code real estate market.

#47 For those about to flop... on 03.24.16 at 7:09 pm

Well, as I stated yesterday, I just got back from a short spring break jaunt and over the course of the week we ate out over a dozen times ….didn’t hear the topic of real estate come up once.

First meal out in the Couv ,wife took me to a Thai place on main st ,two dudes sat down at the next table and proceeded to have a 15 minute discussion about whether it was a good time to buy now and how ” the government needs to more to make things affordable “.

They did laugh a couple of times about how crazy things are here ,but one of them still sounded like a Greaterfool in the making.

My wife said ” I know your gonna put this on the blog”

She was right…

P.S. Thanks to Common ,MF and Boom for giving me a warm welcome back,as I said I checked in a couple of times but my sausage fingers could not type on my wife’s phone so I thought Id give it a rest,back on the iPad now so lookout!

M41BC

#48 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.24.16 at 7:11 pm

@#30 Jhonny
Apparently your reading and comprehension skills are lower than your whiskey tolerance…….
Enjoy the weekend.
Nothing more impressive than boiled easter eggs and whiskey farts

#49 ed on 03.24.16 at 7:11 pm

NB must belong to the same reasoning club as the Trump (here he is at his best):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DnpO_RTSNmQ

#50 understood by few on 03.24.16 at 7:16 pm

#26 NextYear on 03.24.16 at 6:21 pm

They tell us that there is a minuscule amount of foreign buyer and that it has no impact on the market and price so banning it completely should be no big deal right??

——————–

Same impact whether it’s real or not. If the perception is it’s foreign money (everyone is buying hoping someone from Asia with more money than sense will make them a millionaire) then banning it makes that dream go poof and the bottom drops.

Whether HAM is real or not, you ban HAM the tide of speculation recedes and we’re left with a lot of Vancouverites standing there pantsless with nothing but their d*cks in hand. It ain’t gonna be pretty.

#51 spaceman on 03.24.16 at 7:18 pm

Garth Sir comment
“The Bank of Canada will raise rates starting next year, according to most analysts. Get ready for it. — Garth ”

Sir
Interest rates will not go up here for at least next 15 years

Dam, can I borrow your crystal ball? Mine seems to be broken… Interest rates are at rock bottom… there is only one direction they can go… and thats up…

Long term Bonds are dead in the water, go short term, and long on Equitys with a good balance.

My Crystal ball just told me a down turn is coming…. now if it would only tell me when ?????

#52 Kilt on 03.24.16 at 7:18 pm

Garth. Doesn’t it seem strange that there is a correlation between house prices and Chinese-Canadian populations in Canada. In the end it is supply/demand that drives the market. I think Canada’s immigration policies (specifically the Investor one) has added a lot of fuel to the fire. I agree that foreign ownership is probably in the single digits, depending on the neighborhood. But I also believe that Canadians who purchased their citizenship dominate the market when it comes to higher end homes. Normally I would have said million dollar plus homes, but that only gets you a tear down now.
I’ve read the blog for 8 year now. You’ve been right the whole time. People buying houses at these prices are crazy. You’ve changed your perspective over the years though. And you have been wrong the whole time. Someone making a stupid decision and purchasing a home with 5% down or a cash back mortgage a few years back would have made a killing in Toronto and Van. And that would have easily outperformed your 7% a year.
Kilt.

Incorrect after closing and sales costs. Financial assets still outperform. Besides, it is not a contest (why do I have to keep saying this?). The correct goal is balance, and not having net worth concentrated in a single asset. Sigh. — Garth

#53 blusterbuster on 03.24.16 at 7:19 pm

Garth

I like the methodology….seems much more accurate than the election forecast mehtodology of your from last year..
juist saying…don’t bite my head off now….

There was no forecast here, but a poll of reader voting intentions. I am sure that’s exactly how they cast their ballots. — Garth

#54 Gregor Samsa on 03.24.16 at 7:21 pm

Our thinking on interest rates is perverse and backwards. Everyone wants rates to stay low, even though this is the VERY THING that is choking our economy. Why do you think the U.S. desperately wants to raise rates? Because they know that if they leave them low too long, economic ruin is the result.

The only problem is that no politician is willing to take the short term pain of doing the right thing in exchange for long term gain. Maybe Trump, if he gets in…

What Canada’s economy actually needs is an immediate and severe RATE HIKE. Make it 3% right now. Get off the zombie condo economy and start building a real economy again.

If interest rates are in fact not raised for 5 years, I can guarantee you that Canada’s economy will also suck for 5 years.

#55 spaceman on 03.24.16 at 7:25 pm

my wife is Chinese, and has lots of chinese clients, some have come with investment income, and where do they put it, million dollar properties and business’s.

With the US housing slump, and ours seemingly healthy, yes the Chinese are moving their money from China to Vancouver, Victoria, and Toronto, and buying property. Nobody knows for sure, the real numbers, and all it takes is for a small down turn, and they will flee like rats from a sinking ship….

#56 Conspiracy Theory on 03.24.16 at 7:27 pm

Wouldn’t even 5% foreign money put significant pressure on a market that has no significant room for expansion? Not in one year but if you cumulate it over time it adds up:

5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30 (This would be the total effect over 6 years of a 5% influx per year assuming no sales by the new owners.)

However I seriously doubt it’s that high and once prices move down significantly this is the market segment that is likely to bail out first, especially if they have unrealized gains.

To really get good idea of the effect of HAM on the market I think we would have to do a survey of who actually owns the housing stock in a given region and how they utilize it, not who’s buying and selling. For example if 30% of the current housing stock in BC is currently now owned by HAM and sitting vacant, then yes this would have a significant impact. However if it is owned by HAM but rented to the locals it probably doesn’t have much impact, because it isn’t taking the property out of the market.

#57 For those about to flop... on 03.24.16 at 7:28 pm

Things might have topped out in my neck of the woods.
Houses that were going on the market for 1.2/1.3 in the last year or so were gone in under a month.

This year so far the similar ones on the market for 1.5/1.6 trying to get that little bit extra of lemon juice out of the market are not selling as yet.

If they lower the price to 1.4 some fool with probably think they are getting a bargain but as Mr T said ,I pity the fool.

The knock downs for new builds are still going strong, I almost need to wear my sunglasses all the time as the orange death mesh is on every block,not even an exaggeration as the wave sweeps east towards Burnaby.

As usual no HAM in this hood just a few rotten eggs…

M41BC

#58 Notorious on 03.24.16 at 7:29 pm

National Bank, separatist and based in Quebec, can’t be serious.

#59 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.24.16 at 7:31 pm

if analyst Peter Routledge can get a job, anyone can get a job – even unemployed ppl w 2 tech degrees in a booming industry

#60 Nemesis on 03.24.16 at 7:31 pm

#ThursdayMischief,Or… #”NationalDignity!”

[WSJ] – In Bid to Protect ‘National Dignity,’ China Cracks Down on Foreign Place Names

“Democracy is a foreign word. What are you going to do with Democracy Street?” – Commentator on China’s Weibo social network

http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2016/03/23/in-bid-to-protect-national-dignity-china-cracks-down-on-foreign-place-names/

#61 Panhead on 03.24.16 at 7:33 pm

The arse ain’t out of her here in 604land quite yet boys, and by the way, what ever happened to the “Calgary death watch?”
I’ll give you a warm welcome back too Flopper … have and Dos Equis darks stateside?

#62 sockeye sam on 03.24.16 at 7:37 pm

Moving Up?
Al my friends and neighbors in my hood over here on the west side of Van that have sold their houses haven’t moved up. Theirs no where to move up to after owning a house on the west side. This is the upest you get.Most people that I’ve talked to have moved into larger condos, Sunshine coast, Chilliwack,Pender island, South delta, Kelowna. Every one has sold to off shore Chinese buyers. Every house has been torn down and replaced with a new house.With the exception of the Vancouver special that was purchased by China and is about to be rented for $6000.00 per month. Every one of these homes now sits vacant. I should know. I live here and the houses I’m mentioning are all on my street. I wish I knew how to post pictures on this site.

Troll much? — Garth

#63 Bond...James Bond on 03.24.16 at 7:38 pm

https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/en/rates-and-analysis/economic-analysis/special-report-10june2015.pdf

Read this to realize why debt concerns are overblown

#64 Smoking Man on 03.24.16 at 7:40 pm

Garth Fat Check Please.

Ezra Levant emailed me this, True or False

Did you see what Justin Trudeau slipped into the budget this week, hidden away on page 223?
It’s called a bank “bail-in regime”.

That means if a Canadian bank starts to fail, it would be allowed to seize your bank account to pay its bills. Seriously.

Ezra just seriously discredited himself. That was taken, word-for-word from Flaherty’s last budget. No depositor’s money will ever be seized. — Garth

#65 gut check on 03.24.16 at 7:40 pm

question for you, OH SAGE,

does “best before” mean “bad after?”

and importantly what does your opinion on it say about what level of scum you reside on?

#66 gut check on 03.24.16 at 7:41 pm

my last comment was for #25 saskatoon on 03.24.16 at 6:21 pm

#67 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.24.16 at 7:43 pm

Garth.
Totally off subject but any comment on the upcoming British “Brexit” referendum?
Possible EU implosion if the Brits decide to leave? Financial implications for balanced portfolio investors?

UK stays. Of course. — Garth

#68 David on 03.24.16 at 7:43 pm

Besides, it is not a contest (why do I have to keep saying this?).

Because all of life is viewed as a viscious contest and anyone not winning is losing.

Kudos on the shoddy research takedown though.

#69 Moldcoast on 03.24.16 at 7:44 pm

“Meaningless. People purchasing $1.6 million houses are moving up. They’re not first-timers trying to buy on $70,000 incomes with million-dollar mortgages, but rather buy with equity from previous homes. Duh. — Garth”

How do you know this? According to which stats?

#70 p123 on 03.24.16 at 7:46 pm

I agree with your analysis Garth, looking at the sales numbers, home sales in YVR were around 100 or fewer every single day till Poloz and his brain trust decreased the rates, now they’re at around 200-300+ sales daily.

However, you’ve been dead wrong about the interest rates normalizing, you’ve been saying the gov’ts would increase rates for years, and all they’ve done is reduce rates.

The 5 year terms have not been impacted in fact they’ve gone done since the US increased it’s interest rates.

#71 David on 03.24.16 at 7:46 pm

*vicious, eff…

#72 BlackDog on 03.24.16 at 7:48 pm

@saskatoon, you misunderstood what I meant when I said, ” Ghomeshi was found not guilty, but that doesn’t mean he was innocent.”

First, I did not say the judge made the wrong decision based on the evidence as presented. I don’t even have an opinion on that as I have not followed the trial closely enough to have formed one.

Second, let me add a few clarifying words to my statement which caused you to be “disgusted with the irrationality” (cause you are right it sounds illogical on the surface).

What I should have wrote was:
“Ghomeshi was found not guilty in a court of law, but that doesn’t mean he did not assault the three women.”

Nothing irrational about that statement, I don’t think. I’m not playing judge or jury here, just saying that justice is not necessarily always served, and there is good reason to think it may not have been in this case.

There is a very good possibility, that these three women (although they may have lied/forgotten/been inconsistent about some details ) may still have been telling the truth about the punching and the choking. Certainly, Ghomeshi’s past suggests that he fits the profile.

The women were not on trial here, but victims of sexual assault are typically raked through the coals. Other women who are victims of assault will look at the Ghomeshi trial and be even more scared of coming forward. That is the sad reality for abuse victims, whether or not Ghomeshi is TRULY innocent (i.e. not just innocent in a court of law).

How do we fix the problem so that abusers are brought to justice? A 2012 study from University of Ottawa criminology professor Holly Johnson looked at Statistics Canada data and found that of the 460,000 sexual assaults annually in Canada, only roughly 15,000 are reported to police. Of those, charges are laid in just over 5,000 with convictions arising in roughly 1,500 cases

So Saskatoon, looking at the forest through the trees, the bigger problem is not that women lie and accuse men of sexual assault in a court of law. It is that men sexually assault women on a regular basis, and most of them get away with it.

#73 Daisy Mae on 03.24.16 at 7:52 pm

“Layered over that is the heavy Asian presence that has always characterized the city, but now exacerbates and visually magnifies the impact….”

********************

Nope. I was born and raised in Vancouver, and it has always had its Chinatown. However, there was not a single Asian student in all the years I attended school. Rarely did I see Asians on the streets of downtown Vancouver. The ‘heavy Asian presence that has always characterized the city’ is relatively new.

You liked segregation better, I guess. — Garth

#74 Don Watson on 03.24.16 at 7:57 pm

On another note, have you heard this one from Martin Armstrongs daily blog……Socialism is dead. The new proposal for failed banks moving forward will be for the bank to seize the money of its depositors and issue them stock in its place. This is a “bail-in” that pretends to be more compassionate. This is the new proposal circulating around in Canada championed by Justin Trudeau. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/blog/
In a world of so much change, so much uncertainty, so much angst…..everyone take a deep breath and enjoy the long weekend…..

Martin Armstrong is ill-informed. Shame on him for shoddy research. No deposit will ever be converted into equity. What an moronic presumption. And this was not a Trudeau budget inclusion. — Garth

#75 james on 03.24.16 at 7:58 pm

#61

Good lord, can we stick to the topic. This is not a general political affairs blog.

Low interest rates and the entire incentive structure (e.g., CMHC, RRSP withdrawal programs, etc) are largely to blame. There is also the bubble psychology which came over from the USA and never really went away.

Overvaluation types from expectations of future price increases. That psychology is still very much in play in Canada, save for markets where prices are clearly decreasing (e.g., Calgary).

When the popular wisdom shifts, big changes can happen to asset prices. We saw that with Tulip Mania, the South Seas Bubble, the Dot Com crash, etc.

#76 Moldcoast on 03.24.16 at 8:00 pm

“Fortunately there is no tax for anyone to enter Canada and purchase YVR shacks.”Tundra Pete.

If a foreigner buys property and his family lives in Canada then they should be taxed on the World Income since they would be deemed residents. But is that happening?

#77 RayofLight on 03.24.16 at 8:05 pm

Warren Buffet’s thoughts on why economic “bubbles “form. Originally, an investment may be a good buy, but as people pile on, the price action takes over, and the reasons why it was originally a good buy is lost in the enthusiasm. The original premise that housing prices go up, and are a good investment, may have worked 30 years ago.

Warren Buffet said, ‘You can get in a whole lot more trouble in investing with a sound premise than with a false premise. ‘If you have some premise that the moon is made of green cheese or something, it’s ridiculous on its face. If you come out with a premise that common stocks have done better than bonds [… that] became the underlying bulwark for the [1929]
Bubble. People thought stocks were starting to be wonderful and they forgot the limitations of the original premise [….]
So after a while, the original premise, which becomes sort of the impetus for what later turns out to be a bubble is forgotten and the price action takes over.”

#78 sockeye sam on 03.24.16 at 8:05 pm

#43 jhonny

Thanks you’ve just said everything I’ve always wanted to.
You are right. Our country, our heritage. This is all so twisted. You have to live it to understand it. And I’m living it right here, right now on my very street. The one across the street from me has two addresses and is vacant. My friend Dave who was the previous land owner was kind enough to go through all the paper work at city hall to get the address changed from 3394 to 3388.

When ‘heritage’ means ‘race’ we are in trouble. — Garth

#79 The dude on 03.24.16 at 8:08 pm

I wonder if Peter is better at analyzing interest rate movements?

#80 sockeye sam on 03.24.16 at 8:09 pm

Troll Much? What does that even mean?

#81 A belieber on 03.24.16 at 8:09 pm

#62 sockeye sam on 03.24.16 at 7:37 pm

I wish I knew how to post pictures on this site.

————

Post them on imgur.com or another free image sharing site. Then post the link to the album on here.

you must be a wrinklie.

I told you vancouver was going to run into problems without any young people. I’m still offering my services. This one is free.

#82 eddy on 03.24.16 at 8:10 pm

Some here have a bad attitude.
I’m a Canadian, I’m selling a house, I don’t care where the money comes form: I get the money, I spend it back into the economy, other Canadians benefit.
This “it’s foreign money (unproven) the government should do something” is sad. You really want more government? Truth is losers, your government sent your jobs to others elsewhere, now they have more money than you.
A Chinese agent leaving a house does not mean foreign money bought the house, and dark skinned agent leaving a house does not mean foreign Iranian money bought the house; all that is true is that someone bought the house with cash or credit, the blend is only known to the parties involved. Count your own money.

#83 Mark on 03.24.16 at 8:13 pm

“So it’s just a bunch of greedy millennials and their parents blowing into the bubble ?”

Not at all. Its largely a case of speculators hoarding properties in significant numbers, aided and abetted by previous significant gains. Trying to unload their properties into the declining price environment by conjuring up hype. Evidence of foreign inflows into the Canadian RE marketplace is scant. But leverage is off the charts.

For example, I’ve quoted “Khalid”, a Vancouver Realtor, who proudly claimed to the Globe and Mail that he owned “15 to 20 properties” in Vancouver a few times. Since Vancouver/Toronto prices peaked in 2013 and have been falling since, its no surprise that people like him are awfully eager to unload before the losses become even more severe.

What makes Toronto/Vancouver “different” is that there are simply far more speculators in those cities than you’d find elsewhere. More speculators in dire straights — more “hype” and nonsense which cannot be supported by the facts of the situation (stagnant and declining RE across Canada).

The whole situation and narrative that has been concocted is pretty sad, and an awfully poor reflection on those who promulgate it. Ranks right up there with Trump blaming Mexicans and Muslims for the ills which beset the United States.

#84 Smoking Man on 03.24.16 at 8:18 pm

I need to be honest

I’m a man and I love the curves of woman, the hair, their beauty, to say I don’t feel a tiny bit of lust towards really good looking ones would make me a liar.

That’s how men are wired. The less clothes woman have on, the more the intrigue. Sort of glad in this day and age I have destroyed my sex drive by abusing Alcohol and Tobacco. I can just have fun shit disturbing now without worrying about that primal distraction.

But can some one please explain to me why that lady would go topples at the Ghomeshi news conference. Why is she giving these guys cheap thrills like that?

I don’t get it.

#85 Daisy Mae on 03.24.16 at 8:19 pm

The Canadian-born Asian population didn’t suddenly explode. Most would appear to be immigrants. And what riles Richmond, and Vancouverites in general, is the exclusion of the English language on Richmond store fronts. This problem isn’t going away. Metro town in Burnaby? Asian shoppers far outnumber all other nationalities.

Toronto has had non-English-only signage for decades. Yawn. Grow up. — Garth

#86 For those about to flop... on 03.24.16 at 8:22 pm

#60 Panhead on 03.24.16 at 7:33 pm
The arse ain’t out of her here in 604land quite yet boys, and by the way, what ever happened to the “Calgary death watch?”
I’ll give you a warm welcome back too Flopper … have and Dos Equis darks stateside?

///////////////////////////////

Hey Panhead,it’s funny you should say that.
Dos Equis Lager in the green bottle is my favourite beer with a wedge of lime.Great for the belly not so good for your teeth.Dos Eqius Amber in the brown bottle, I am not a fan of.

New Mexico has just started to get its Microbrewery legs in the last couple of years and is rated number 10 in the list of American cities to go on a Microbrew tour,and I think I read somewhere that the state has 40 Microbreweries now which is good for employment in the area.

I noticed there is some old warehouse land that could be transformed into a Brewery district near the train tracks in downtown Albuquerque, which could be good for the local economy.

I tried a few local beers for the first time including Santa Fe lager and I try as much to eat at local restaurants to support the local businesses.

Anyway,not a beer blog but if you’ve done the Phoenix/ Palm Springs thing and want to do something different but similar then try New Mexico.Santa Fe regularly gets voted in the top 5 most beautiful small American cities and now I know why.

Attention: This blog post was not paid for by the New Mexico tourism board,just some dude who couldn’t justify flying halfway around the world and spending 10k on spring break…

M41BC

#87 Mark on 03.24.16 at 8:24 pm

“This is a “bail-in” that pretends to be more compassionate. This is the new proposal circulating around in Canada championed by Justin Trudeau.”

I wrote this yesterday, and I’ll write it again today. Before even the common equity of the Canadian Schedule 1 banks is even meaningfully at risk, the adjustable rate borrowers (ie: 40% of the money borrowed from the Canadian banks) will see their interest costs rise dramatically.

Why? Because each individual Canadian bank controls, at their sole discretion, the “Prime” rate. They can, and will keep raising such rate until such a time that either they’ve de-leveraged significantly (ie: people refinance elsewhere), or they’ve roped in enough cash to defeat whatever crisis they may face.

The real risk to Canadian bank common stockholders is that the government taxes them (ie: to pay for CMHC bail-outs), or enacts rules to make their future growth relatively slow. ie: higher capital requirements. But bail-ins, sheesh, not a chance in Canada unless the whole economy was one big smoking hole in the ground.

#88 Don Watson on 03.24.16 at 8:27 pm

The 2016 Budget States: Introducing a Bank Recapitalization “Bail-in” Regime

To protect Canadian taxpayers in the unlikely event of a large bank failure, the Government is proposing to implement a bail-in regime that would reinforce that bank shareholders and creditors are responsible for the bank’s risks—not taxpayers. This would allow authorities to convert eligible long-term debt of a failing systemically important bank into common shares to recapitalize the bank and allow it to remain open and operating. Such a measure is in line with international efforts to address the potential risks to the financial system and broader economy of institutions perceived as “too-big-to-fail”.

The Government is proposing to introduce framework legislation for the regime along with accompanying enhancements to Canada’s bank resolution toolkit. Regulations and guidelines setting out further features of the regime will follow. This will provide stakeholders with an additional opportunity to comment on elements of the proposed regime.

In Cyprus bail-in included certain depositors. Austria abolished bank deposit guarantee. Many other G20 type examples Garth. Sorry, I’d rather read between the lines than believe I can trust government to not want to further erode my personal wealth.

Two-year-old news. No deposits will ever be touched. Try to keep up. — Garth

#89 JP on 03.24.16 at 8:34 pm

#45 understood by few

DING DING DING we have a winner. You my friend are absolutely correct its the fear of missing out that is in the driver seat sure ham may be in the baby seat in the back but this is the main driver of the YVR bubble.

#90 Dominik Fung on 03.24.16 at 8:42 pm

Typically, the Real-tards and sycophant parasites who feed in the same trough don’t want the gravy train to stop regardless of the truth behind the train wreck HAM has unleashed in this country. Countries around the world have put a stop to the deluge of stolen money flooding out of China, but panty waist Canada can’t seem to get it’s act together, pathetic.

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2016/3/24/No-explanation-for-this-Critics-pan-patchwork-approach-on-housing.aspx

People with more money than you must have stolen it? Sad. — Garth

#91 Smoking Man on 03.24.16 at 8:43 pm

Thank you dogs

What I love about this pathetic blogs comment section, it’s the rich in diversity of opinions. Now if your trying to write the fiction novel of century you got to do it in a certain way.

You need to build rich diverse characters that reads love and hate, for example; You need a character that a crazed cuts his nuts off Femanizi will fall in love with, then you need to balance that and have others like misogynist porn addicted perverts that others can relate too. Characters that Capitalist like, and characters commies will cheer for.

But I’m getting close to the end of a 6-year journey, I would just like to thank all the participants in the comment section for helping with all the charter development in my book. Modeled after many passionate blog dogs.

Probably have chapter 9 done by end of this week end. 3 more to go.

Charters in my book inspired by these dogs.

Holy Crap Where is my Tylonal
Old Man
Beach Girl
Gut Check, you anit in yet but you will be.
My Crazy wife
Gartho-the wise one
Laughing Con
Mark- of course the robot
Black Dog
Freedom First
Turner Nation
and the latest james. Your my fav.

#92 Kilt on 03.24.16 at 8:49 pm

Incorrect after closing and sales costs. Financial assets still outperform. Besides, it is not a contest (why do I have to keep saying this?). The correct goal is balance, and not having net worth concentrated in a single asset. Sigh. — Garth

Financial assets outperform if you have the money. I have neighbors who bought two years ago in Van with 10% down on a home just shy of a million. They could easily get 1.4 for it now. After costs… they would still be walking away with a 300% gain on their initial investment. I trade options on margin, so I fully understand the risks they are taking, especially if interest rates go up 2%. But you can’t deny that it hasn’t worked for them and anyone putting down 5% has outperformed even the best hedge funds.
For the nuts who buy cash, yes, I agree, a balanced fund is a way better option. But the highly leveraged fools have done well. You can’t deny that. Whether that trend will continue, I struggle to understand how. I’m in the top 5% of incomes in Canada, thanks to hard work and dividend paying stocks, but I can’t afford half a house in my neighborhood. So we agree, this can’t end well.
Kilt.
ps – everything is a contest

#93 Kilt on 03.24.16 at 8:50 pm

Thanks for your time Garth.
And Happy Easter weekend.

Kilt.

#94 Rick on 03.24.16 at 8:54 pm

Comment on non English signs. Don’t patronize their businesses:)

#95 toby on 03.24.16 at 8:54 pm

@69 Moldcoast
” income tax averages C$1,400 per millionaire”

“Among other things it reveals that 10 years after admission, the average annual income tax paid by millionaire migrants’ primary breadwinners was C$1,400. No, that isn’t missing a zero. The true average is even lower – since one third did not file tax returns.
Compare that to the C$10,900 paid by skilled worker immigrants, or the C$7,500 paid by Canadians on average.”

http://www.scmp.com/comment/blogs/article/1929324/study-reveals-awfulness-canadian-investor-immigration-income-tax

Source (Fed Govt 2014):

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/evaluation/bip/index.asp

#96 Smoking Man on 03.24.16 at 9:00 pm

oh damn, I forgot one.

Sheryl Valentine you made the book, you get a lead roll toward the ending and a ride on the flier, and its a happy ending. I could not leave you out. You make a man out of Charles Ashman- ak Laughing Con

#97 Don Watson on 03.24.16 at 9:00 pm

http://www.budget.gc.ca/2016/docs/plan/ch8-en.html#_Toc446106870

BAIL-IN

I am keeping up Garth – here is link to 2016 federal budget – sorry, not 2 year old news. I guess “Growing the Middle Class” to T2 means taking from those who create wealth and jobs. Oh well, have great weekend

It is two years old and was taken directly from a Harper budget. No depositor’s money will ever be converted into bank equity. Give your head a shake. And try to keep up. — Garth

#98 acdel on 03.24.16 at 9:08 pm

#90 Smoking Man

WHAT? No Shirley Valentine the mysterious mistress; not sure if I will purchase your book without the mysterious one included in the plot. :)

#99 Suck It Up on 03.24.16 at 9:12 pm

Well Garth I work in the industry here in the most horny part of country and I gotta say you are right. About ten years ago interest rates were higher and it sure seemed like it was was a lot harder to qualify. After the “emergency” low mortgage rates a flood of mortgage brokers and realtors entered the industry as the market rebounded. And rebounded. But those couple of times F tried to tighten up or some type of restriction was implemented it actually slowed the housing market down until rates would drop again and every time they dropped the market would go crazy. Now lending is crazy and everyone thinks rates will never go up. Never. Even the homeless guy on the corner says so (and is trying to qualify with the bank he panhandles outside of. They keep asking to see his loot cup at the end of each day for income verification.) So people are using their homes to buy others as their investment strategy, move up, family are helping out with down payments for their first timers, people are renting out spare rooms (in addition to the basement suite), but let’s all blame HAM. There are rich foreigners who buy nice homes in certain areas. I don’t dispute that. But like Garth said this is not the only city in the world where this is happening. And Its overblown. And if you think that’s denial of HAM then ask yourself why the frenzied bidding wars are now in some pretty scuzzy areas 1-2 hours outside of Greater Vancouver where most people would not even consider buying a year ago? Is that HAM? And please don’t tell me we are running out of land. So suck it up people and admit you really are banking (pun intended) on interest rates staying low. Ironically this includes Asians who live here and are not HAM but part of the herd. All I can say is debt’s a bitch no matter what nationality. It doesn’t discriminate like some posters here.

#100 BlackDog (resurrected WhiteKat) on 03.24.16 at 9:15 pm

@Smoking Man,

You told me a long time ago, in my previous life as a Kat, that I would be in your book. Now that I am a dog, you are still saying the same thing….yeah right…will believe it when I pee on it.

#101 BlackDog (resurrected WhiteKat) on 03.24.16 at 9:18 pm

@SmokingMan.

Notice I did not bite at your remark about getting excited at the exposed breasts of the protester.

#102 IHCTD9 on 03.24.16 at 9:18 pm

#22 Scumop on 03.24.16 at 6:17 pm

Bang on. Of course, it is early Gen X and Boomers cashing in, and Millennials doing the pissing and moaning.

Damn, with this weeks’ Budget selling Canadian youth into debt slavery, along with this housing insanity, I’m damn glad I’m over 40.

#103 hope & ruin on 03.24.16 at 9:24 pm

@ smoking man

can’t wait to read this book. if nothing else it will shed some light on your posts.

here’s a plot idea: shirley valentine, smoking man and mark are all the same character. like edward norton, tyler and marla in fight club.

Except instead of visiting support groups. They are going around looking at open houses. And the internal monologue is shirley and smoking man going at it while mark worries about the sales mix.

just an idea. either way. I’m looking forward to it.

#104 carboy on 03.24.16 at 9:27 pm

well when I see how one sided opinions can be about asian investor class influence on house demand and price I would rather not take a chance on that bank bailin Those people in Cypress did not see it coming either.Why Take a chance. Can I avoid this risk by having equities instead?

#105 Retired Boomer WI on 03.24.16 at 9:27 pm

So let them raise interest rates by a factor of 10. a 100% interest rate rise will flush out the system, and bring house prices down dam fast.

They say demographics are destiny, if so the Gen Y, or millennial those born 1985-2005 comprise an EVEN LARGE generation than us Boomers. While we had to compete for a job at suck wages, and the (then) highest interest rates ever, and high home prices, so shouldn’t they, right?

Misery loves company…

When they are beginning to pass from the scene they might just be able to sell their overpriced homes to the next (larger) generation. We had Gen X who was smaller, and skewed things up a tad.
Who knew??

#106 Smoking Man on 03.24.16 at 9:31 pm

#100 BlackDog (resurrected WhiteKat) on 03.24.16 at 9:18 pm
@SmokingMan.

Notice I did not bite at your remark about getting excited at the exposed breasts of the protester.
…………

You buggers are on to me, can’t get a rise out of anyone anymore. I should lay low for awhile, get some newbees in here, then Smoke em.

#107 Asian Fetish? on 03.24.16 at 9:33 pm

Do you have some sort of Asian fetish Garth? We seem to offend you anytime there’s true talk of people’s personal experiences or the media’s hint of Chinese buying power.

You demand that ALL of us who live in YVR are ignorant. Maybe I should introduce you to a realtor I know who has flown in 6 different mainland Chinese buyers into YVR over the last 4 months to view and buy homes. Perhaps he can enlighten you?

You accused me of being jealous of people wealthier than me last time I tried defending my city. Fact is, my husband and I in our 30s own our home (yes, with land) that has increased over $1,000,000 since he bought it a decade ago. There’s no need for me be to be jealous of anyone. Frustrated that all our friends are stuck moving out to farm country in order to afford a home worthy of raising a family in. Yes. Frustrated. I’m sure you would be frustrated too if you watch the neighbourhood you belong to become void of any sense of community.

Sounds like the fetish is yours. — Garth

#108 Shirley Valentine on 03.24.16 at 9:34 pm

#95 Smoking Man on 03.24.16 at 9:00 pm

oh damn, I forgot one.

Sheryl Valentine you made the book, you get a lead roll toward the ending and a ride on the flier, and its a happy ending. I could not leave you out. You make a man out of Charles Ashman- ak Laughing Con
xoxoxoxxox

Well this is good and bad news… a happy flier ride is all I seek… but yikes I have been assigned to a laughing con.. whatever is that! Cons have no sense of fun… sad bunch they are…. Kenney, Harpo, Anders… cringeworthy … certainly no smoking men in the con ranks.

No, I seek a private ride with studly beast of a captain of the alien ship…. so three more chapters to go… lotsa of time to increase my screen time…. there is gonna be a movie no?

The hot pursuit of the studly smokey man continues….

#109 jaybee on 03.24.16 at 9:35 pm

I’m not sure if it would be possible to collect the kind of data we would need to truly understand what kind of impact foreign buying from China has on the RE market in Vancouver. It’s just not going to happen. Collecting data is tough at the best of times…

But Garth, do you in your heart of hearts truly believe that foreign ownership doesn’t play a significant role in the price of RE in Vancouver?

As this blog attests, the role is psychological. And it’s destroying a cool city. — Garth

#110 Squish on 03.24.16 at 9:39 pm

#45 (and 50) understood by few

Perfectly put. It really is the prevailing belief that matters, regardless of the truth.

I sit here listening to a guy at the next table talk about how he’s using a HELOC on his first house to buy another house as an “investment” because foreign money’s just going to keep coming. His companion sitting across from him nods, says she’s finally convinced her mom to sell her home out east (even though she’ll “lose some money on the sale”) and buy here in BC, so down the road she can “retire on the profit” she’ll make.

#111 Linda on 03.24.16 at 9:40 pm

#71 BlackDog

Hear, hear. Well said.

It is indeed sad to see that misogynist rape culture is still so prevalent across Canada today, blaming victims of such widespread assaults. Including some of the commenters on this blog.

#112 bobs uruncle on 03.24.16 at 9:41 pm

Garth,

I’m the real Bob’s Urunlce. I’m a Canuck and I live in NYC. I’m tired of my Canadian brethen moaning about how unfair they think life is to them. Buck up pilgrims!

#113 Renter's Revenge! on 03.24.16 at 9:44 pm

#93 Rick on 03.24.16 at 8:54 pm
Comment on non English signs. Don’t patronize their businesses:)

Wouldn’t know how! Lol

#114 Smoking Man on 03.24.16 at 9:44 pm

DELETED

#115 Herb on 03.24.16 at 9:49 pm

“Toronto has had non-English-only signage for decades. Yawn.” Garth, at #84

Noticed that when trying to find a specialist we were referred to in Markham. Made it kind of difficult, and I did not yawn.

#116 Dirt dog on 03.24.16 at 9:49 pm

#47 For those about to flop… on 03.24.16 at 7:09 pm
Well, as I stated yesterday, I just got back from a short spring break jaunt and over the course of the week we ate out over a dozen times ….didn’t hear the topic of real estate come up once.

First meal out in the Couv ,wife took me to a Thai place on main st ,two dudes sat down at the next table and proceeded to have a 15 minute discussion about whether it was a good time to buy now and how ” the government needs to more to make things affordable “.

They did laugh a couple of times about how crazy things are here ,but one of them still sounded like a Greaterfool in the making.

My wife said ” I know your gonna put this on the blog”

She was right…

P.S. Thanks to Common ,MF and Boom for giving me a warm welcome back,as I said I checked in a couple of times but my sausage fingers could not type on my wife’s phone so I thought Id give it a rest,back on the iPad now so lookout!

M41BC
//////////////::::::::::::::

You need a hobby!!!

#117 TRON on 03.24.16 at 9:56 pm

It’s tough to argue statistics but statistics can be and are wrong in some cases.

The markets love to talk about the ‘Fear and Greed’ index because emotion do play a huge part in ‘consumer trading’. However, most of the bulk of trading is done by institutions and little emotion goes into those trades.

The housing market is not traded by institutions but by emotional consumers. I worked on the westside of Vancouver for years in a consumer market that got me into many homes just purchased or under construction.

One thing I noticed over the years was that over time the customer went from a multicultural professional person with a good income then to Hong Kong business people and finally to mainland Chinese people with ‘new money’.

I don’t know one person on the westside who doesn’t think that if they list their home it will not be bought by a mainland Chinese person with new money.

That ‘perception’ is real yet it contradicts the stats. Statistics can be like a bikini where they hide all the good parts.

#118 Smoking Man on 03.24.16 at 9:57 pm

#106 Shirley Valentine on 03.24.16 at 9:34 pm
#95 Smoking Man on 03.24.16 at 9:00 pm

oh damn, I forgot one.

Sheryl Valentine you made the book, you get a lead roll toward the ending and a ride on the flier, and its a happy ending. I could not leave you out. You make a man out of Charles Ashman- ak Laughing Con
xoxoxoxxox

Well this is good and bad news… a happy flier ride is all I seek… but yikes I have been assigned to a laughing con.. whatever is that! Cons have no sense of fun… sad bunch they are…. Kenney, Harpo, Anders… cringeworthy … certainly no smoking men in the con ranks.

No, I seek a private ride with studly beast of a captain of the alien ship…. so three more chapters to go… lotsa of time to increase my screen time…. there is gonna be a movie no?

The hot pursuit of the studly smokey man continues….
…………..

Shirley it’s like this, so long as I have not had a smoke for eight hours and no booze in my system, the physical part of a space ship ride will work. But my mind will not be into that.

Now if I hammered out of my mind, and chain smoking, anything is possible. However I can’t fly drunk.

Better off with Ashman, he’s young and can fly sober or drunk. We can create a life like mask of me with the bald scared head and missing tooth, smoker flavored breath mints for Ashman. Bit of imagination and I’m sort of yours babe.

#119 Dirt dog on 03.24.16 at 9:58 pm

#57 For those about to flop… on 03.24.16 at 7:28 pm
Things might have topped out in my neck of the woods.
Houses that were going on the market for 1.2/1.3 in the last year or so were gone in under a month.

This year so far the similar ones on the market for 1.5/1.6 trying to get that little bit extra of lemon juice out of the market are not selling as yet.

If they lower the price to 1.4 some fool with probably think they are getting a bargain but as Mr T said ,I pity the fool.

The knock downs for new builds are still going strong, I almost need to wear my sunglasses all the time as the orange death mesh is on every block,not even an exaggeration as the wave sweeps east towards Burnaby.

As usual no HAM in this hood just a few rotten eggs…

M41BC
??????????????

Really???

#120 acdel on 03.24.16 at 9:59 pm

#107 Shirley Valentine

but yikes I have been assigned to a laughing con..

—————————————————-

Hell no! The two of you are on a way different level then I am; I love it, keeps me guessing on what the hell is going on between the two of you; this is why I personally think that it is crucial that you are involved in the plot. Absolutely no offense directed to either one of you. Keep it going! :)

#121 Spiltbongwater on 03.24.16 at 10:02 pm

Am I the only one who reads deniers as pronounced like Grand Marnier?

#122 CiCi on 03.24.16 at 10:02 pm

18 mitzerboy

He was speaking relatively…you ARE in fact normal in comparison to Vancouverites

#123 For those about to flop... on 03.24.16 at 10:05 pm

#115 Dirt dog on 03.24.16 at 9:49 pm
#47 For those about to flop… on 03.24.16 at 7:09 pm
Well, as I stated yesterday, I just got back from a short spring break jaunt and over the course of the week we ate out over a dozen times ….didn’t hear the topic of real estate come up once.

First meal out in the Couv ,wife took me to a Thai place on main st ,two dudes sat down at the next table and proceeded to have a 15 minute discussion about whether it was a good time to buy now and how ” the government needs to more to make things affordable “.

They did laugh a couple of times about how crazy things are here ,but one of them still sounded like a Greaterfool in the making.

My wife said ” I know your gonna put this on the blog”

She was right…

P.S. Thanks to Common ,MF and Boom for giving me a warm welcome back,as I said I checked in a couple of times but my sausage fingers could not type on my wife’s phone so I thought Id give it a rest,back on the iPad now so lookout!

M41BC
//////////////::::::::::::::

You need a hobby!!!

/////////////////////////////

I’ve got one ,it’s hanging out on here!

Play nice or I will shred you like a pulled pork sandwich….

M41BC

#124 ole Doberman on 03.24.16 at 10:07 pm

Great discusion and blog post today.

Since vancouverites are rightly disgruntled over what has happened to their city why doesnt someone like the government of BC track a handfull of $2m crack shacks sold and get the parties identity and where the money is coming from? Isnt that simple enough? And a great way to fight crime if it is indeed laundered $$$.

Why is the canadian RE like this? I see sold signs in Calgary, but what did it go for? That would be fair to the mkt wouldnt it?

#125 Craiger on 03.24.16 at 10:07 pm

Smoking man did you see this Microsoft robot go off into various racist rants? Out of control but hilarious for AI. I don’t think the robots are taking over just yet.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-24/microsofts-twitter-chat-robot-devolves-racist-homophobic-antisemitic-obama-bashing-p

#126 Shirley valentine on 03.24.16 at 10:17 pm

#102 hope & ruin on 03.24.16 at 9:24 pm

@ smoking man

can’t wait to read this book. if nothing else it will shed some light on your posts.

here’s a plot idea: shirley valentine, smoking man and mark are all the same character. like edward norton, tyler and marla in fight club.

Except instead of visiting support groups. They are going around looking at open houses. And the internal monologue is shirley and smoking man going at it while mark worries about the sales mix.

just an idea. either way. I’m looking forward to it.

Threesomes with mark.. are NOT in the cards!!!..but alas if he’s a cheery robot he’s welcome aboard

Twosomes with the studly captain smokey man is VERY much in the cards

#127 acdel on 03.24.16 at 10:22 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/morneau-expects-to-raise-3-billion-a-year-by-cancelling-more-tax-credits/article29389778/

_________________________________

Let me guess; the windfalls will go to bum,bum, I mean Bombardier!! Good-night all…

#128 JP on 03.24.16 at 10:22 pm

#98 Suck It Up

100% correct

#129 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.24.16 at 10:25 pm

Damn, with this weeks’ Budget selling Canadian youth into debt slavery, along with this housing insanity, I’m damn glad I’m over 40.

government is here to serve those who have and spend $

trudo is no diff

#130 Neta on 03.24.16 at 10:25 pm

Garth,
Respectfully disagree with the statement that houses are so expensive because money are so cheap. Not in Vancouver, and not in Toronto any more. Even at 2.5%, million dollars mortgages are not cheap, and they are our of reach of vast majority of Canadians.
I don’t know whether 30% is the right number, but 2%?…. Really? Just look at line-ups to sale offices and look at the number of unoccupied condos (with no electricity consumption).

#131 Smoking Man on 03.24.16 at 10:26 pm

Damn I already got delete up there, the fuzzy bald head, last post before I go night, night and disappoint my sweet wife again.

In my research today on twitter re Gohmeshi, I was clicking on the profiles of the most rabid feminazis. To my amazement. Their hobbies, Writer, reader, love reading. Book lover. They all like cats, that was weird for me.

On all the dudes profiles that were on full, take that bitch.

Not one of them, with the word I read.

Sorry dudes, I may need to through you pricks under the bus. Nothing personal, Business is business.

We got an amazing artist blog dog who lives in this country, she did my book cover for free. I’ve grown to love her spirit and encouragement, this mom of a daughter Deserves fame and recognition for her talent. A true feminist. Entrepreneur, not a victim or man hater.

I question her judgment on helping me. But hell, like a good dog, I need mission.

I love you all. Good night, happy Easter. Celebrating when a good man was nailed to a cross.

Hum?

#132 45north on 03.24.16 at 10:31 pm

as interest payments have declined, households have borrowed more money, to buy more expensive homes

chart shows interest payments and total debt level as a percentage of disposable income

correlation is causative ( in this case ). If rates rise not only do households have to pay more but the Canadian Government does too since it has decided to borrow more.

#133 BK on 03.24.16 at 10:32 pm

I just want to comment on a couple things people said on yesterdays blog.

Many people saying millennials should move to the us. Easier said than done! How do you propose millennials do it?

Other than having that rare transferable job eg. Doctor or marrying someone down there, you aint getting in.

Secondly

VEGETA

its over 9000!

Im probably the only one on this blog that understood you lol.

#134 IHCTD9 on 03.24.16 at 10:33 pm

#16 Malik on 03.24.16 at 6:14 pm
Garth Sir comment
“The Bank of Canada will raise rates starting next year, according to most analysts. Get ready for it. — Garth ”

Sir
Interest rates will not go up here for at least next 15 years, it does not matter what USA does ( which I guarantee will only have at the most one increase this year of .25%).
Canadian economy is not in a condition to raise rates, no jobs, no manufacturing, no industries, very less intelligence around, fragile economy cannot bear the pain of housing collapse.
Canada has learned a lesson from US, Europe, Japan, etc.
No interest rate rise, guaranteed. I can bet my life on it. :)
People who have bought in last eight years, even two months ago have made money and they have equity in their homes now, even if they bought on a very high leverage.
Point is only housing sells here :)
My humble opinion and off course you might know more but so far I have been renting here and have accumulated almost 200K in 7 yrs, but I still regret deeply not buying here 7 yrs ago when I arrived here.
I will buy it next year when my lease is over.
————

You my friend, have a few things to learn about what drives mortgage rates.

Also, assuming you live in the GTA – if it took you 7 years to accumulate 200K, it does not look like you can afford to buy the average priced GTA house without some pretty severe financial rationing (ie. Not saving or investing jack squat).

Another consideration is that rates really have nowhere to go but up, and getting into a mortgage means a couple of decades worth of financial commitment. And as you say, if the economy is that bad, your job security and earning potential aren’t working to your benefit. IMHO, wages in the GTA are only going to keep going down as long as immigration remains high – especially in one of the big enclaves.

If you buy now, and need the cheap rates to allow you to save and invest, it essentially means a 25 year bet that everything stays as shitty as it is right now, or you’re euchred.

If you arrive at 40 years old with no significant savings, and still owe on your house, you are screwed for life.

#135 CiCi on 03.24.16 at 10:34 pm

58 Notorious

Sorry dude, but National Bank is a very federalist institution. And you don’t know diddly about Quebec.

#136 acdel on 03.24.16 at 10:38 pm

#7 acdel

Larry Sanders not Barry; Dam fat fingers. RIP……….. Ok, perhaps a few beers were involved; but either way, dam!!
Great entertainer!

#137 Smoking Man on 03.24.16 at 10:46 pm

#124 Craiger on 03.24.16 at 10:07 pm
Smoking man did you see this Microsoft robot go off into various racist rants? Out of control but hilarious for AI. I don’t think the robots are taking over just yet.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-24/microsofts-twitter-chat-robot-devolves-racist-homophobic-antisemitic-obama-bashing-p
….
I might have had something to do with that.

#138 acdel on 03.24.16 at 10:47 pm

Ok, I am officially cutoff;Gary,Gary,Gary Shandling.. Man, what a night. I think it has to do with Smoking Man and his mysterious sidekick Shirley that took me to my alternative dyslexic side thinking about their next chapter.

#139 Smoking Man on 03.24.16 at 10:49 pm

#125 Shirley valentine on 03.24.16 at 10:17 pm
#102 hope & ruin on 03.24.16 at 9:24 pm

@ smoking man

can’t wait to read this book. if nothing else it will shed some light on your posts.

here’s a plot idea: shirley valentine, smoking man and mark are all the same character. like edward norton, tyler and marla in fight club.

Except instead of visiting support groups. They are going around looking at open houses. And the internal monologue is shirley and smoking man going at it while mark worries about the sales mix.

just an idea. either way. I’m looking forward to it.

Threesomes with mark.. are NOT in the cards!!!..but alas if he’s a cheery robot he’s welcome aboard

Twosomes with the studly captain smokey man is VERY much in the cards.
…….

I may need you help, not for me my addictions work for me. I’m running out of moves to keep Mrs Smokey from being in an frustrated man hating mood.

#140 IHCTD9 on 03.24.16 at 10:53 pm

#77 sockeye sam on 03.24.16 at 8:05 pm
#43 jhonny

Thanks you’ve just said everything I’ve always wanted to.
You are right. Our country, our heritage. This is all so twisted. You have to live it to understand it. And I’m living it right here, right now on my very street. The one across the street from me has two addresses and is vacant. My friend Dave who was the previous land owner was kind enough to go through all the paper work at city hall to get the address changed from 3394 to 3388.
——–

I’ll bet Dave was pretty happy to make an outlandish profit on his house thanks to the “HAM” no?

Dave did what you should:

“Make hay while the sun is shining.”

It won’t last forever.

Don’t get me wrong, I like living in a homogeneous culture as well, everyone does. Look at the huge cultural enclaves in Toronto.

You got it better than most, you can leave like the Vancouver youth are – but, you get to leave a millionaire!

Retire to small town BC, but you better get on that soon.

#141 conan on 03.24.16 at 10:55 pm

Hey Smoking man, When is your book going to get done?
If you can get the forward written by John Garth Turner I will buy a copy.

PS what are you writing on this blog so that Garth has to write “deleted”?

Must be bad…….

#142 JP on 03.24.16 at 11:03 pm

Everyone needs to watch this and instead of Australia substitute Canada

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CiaHiU6Otk8

#143 Puzni on 03.24.16 at 11:06 pm

Garth if you believe that BC government and BC provincial realtors association numbers are close to being correct than you also must believe that all CREA numbers are correct as well. All parties involved in publishing the 5% number have vested interests ! BC realestate association will not bite the their own hand and government needs to get re elected.

What do they have to gain? — Garth

#144 Shirley Valentine on 03.24.16 at 11:08 pm

#117 Smoking Man on 03.24.16 at 9:57 pm

#106 Shirley Valentine on 03.24.16 at 9:34 pm
#95 Smoking Man on 03.24.16 at 9:00 pm

oh damn, I forgot one.

Sheryl Valentine you made the book, you get a lead roll toward the ending and a ride on the flier, and its a happy ending. I could not leave you out. You make a man out of Charles Ashman- ak Laughing Con
xoxoxoxxox

Well this is good and bad news… a happy flier ride is all I seek… but yikes I have been assigned to a laughing con.. whatever is that! Cons have no sense of fun… sad bunch they are…. Kenney, Harpo, Anders… cringeworthy … certainly no smoking men in the con ranks.

No, I seek a private ride with studly beast of a captain of the alien ship…. so three more chapters to go… lotsa of time to increase my screen time…. there is gonna be a movie no?

The hot pursuit of the studly smokey man continues….
…………..

Shirley it’s like this, so long as I have not had a smoke for eight hours and no booze in my system, the physical part of a space ship ride will work. But my mind will not be into that.

Now if I hammered out of my mind, and chain smoking, anything is possible. However I can’t fly drunk.

Better off with Ashman, he’s young and can fly sober or drunk. We can create a life like mask of me with the bald scared head and missing tooth, smoker flavored breath mints for Ashman. Bit of imagination and I’m sort of yours babe.
xoxox

I’m thinking just riding the alien party ship will be a hormone filled extravaganza for all…

Masks… hmm, is that like in Eyes Wide Shut… ? masks can be hot fun!… let out who you really are beastly smokey man!

OK, enough. — Garth

#145 Smoking Man on 03.24.16 at 11:19 pm

#140 conan on 03.24.16 at 10:55 pm
Hey Smoking man, When is your book going to get done?
If you can get the forward written by John Garth Turner I will buy a copy.

PS what are you writing on this blog so that Garth has to write “deleted”?

Must be bad…….
….

Words that require safe spaces, and counseling.

But what I think, Garth’s a good shit and don’t want anyone stealing my shtick. He’s an addict of my insanity.

Think of him as a sort of a demented guardian angle. I could be wrong.

This is why I love him. but not in a young street sort way.

#146 DON on 03.24.16 at 11:22 pm

#98 Suck It Up on 03.24.16 at 9:12 pm

Nicely put!

I hear Surrey is having its fair share of gun battles these days, not hitting the news, police recruitment and retention is a problem (or so I hear via blogs as the media no longer investigates).

Battle royal in the million dollar neighborhoods.

BC is a product of realtors/developers winning an election in 2001, and the pillaging began. People in the know started buying up properties in preparation. Most of the city believes they are special and will never leave the trendy lifestyle until the big bang occurs.

#147 Shirley Valentine on 03.24.16 at 11:27 pm

138 Smoking Man on 03.24.16 at 10:49 pm

#125 Shirley valentine on 03.24.16 at 10:17 pm
#102 hope & ruin on 03.24.16 at 9:24 pm

@ smoking man

can’t wait to read this book. if nothing else it will shed some light on your posts.

here’s a plot idea: shirley valentine, smoking man and mark are all the same character. like edward norton, tyler and marla in fight club.

Except instead of visiting support groups. They are going around looking at open houses. And the internal monologue is shirley and smoking man going at it while mark worries about the sales mix.

just an idea. either way. I’m looking forward to it.

Threesomes with mark.. are NOT in the cards!!!..but alas if he’s a cheery robot he’s welcome aboard

Twosomes with the studly captain smokey man is VERY much in the cards.
…….

I may need you help, not for me my addictions work for me. I’m running out of moves to keep Mrs Smokey from being in an frustrated man hating mood.
xoxxo

Well threesomes with the mrs smokey man!! could be engagin.. but no, no…. far too many references to swords and knives with her… she clearly defends her beastly stud…tight leash for the slot machine provider I’m finding

This must be an age problem… but viagra, copius amounts of booze, and endless cigarettes is not to be recommended

She needs a cabana pool boy.. I’m sure you won’t mind given the rentals…did you not just buy a cottage…. a lawn boy.. a hot gardener… yes yes this could be good as she would then ease off on the chain and release the studly smokey man… for free rein on the party alien ship

She needs a pool boy! it has worked for me I tell ya!!…. – then she will unleash you!

“And here’s to you, Mrs. Smokey Man,
Jesus loves you more than you will know.
God bless you, please Mrs. Smokey Man.”

#148 Mark on 03.24.16 at 11:30 pm

“Garth if you believe that BC government and BC provincial realtors association numbers are close to being correct than you also must believe that all CREA numbers are correct as well. All parties involved in publishing the 5% number have vested interests ! BC realestate association will not bite the their own hand and government needs to get re elected.”

I’ve dished out a lot of criticism of CREA members (colloquially known as Realtors), but one thing I’ve never accused them of is lying. Yes, some of the analysis that comes out of Realtors is for lack of better words, “creative”. Especially when the media translates their transactional averages into news articles claiming widespread “house price” increases. (when it is really just the sales mix that has shifted so significantly driving changes in the transactional averages!) And their refusal to release data certainly has drawn their objectivity into question. But lying, no, I haven’t any evidence that they’re lied, either in the past, or in the present.

In order for one to come to the conclusion that there’s widespread foreign participation in Canada’s RE market, basically one would have to be calling the Realtors a bunch of liars. One would have to be calling the financial intermediaries and lawyers involved criminals (for not filing FINTRAC reports). One would have to believe the border guards are corrupt for being highly concerned with outbound currency flows at airports like YVR and YYZ. One would have to believe that magically all the allegedly imported wealth could fly beneath StatsCan’s radar, and not infuse into any other asset class other than RE (because everyone knows the rest of Canada’s economy is doing very poorly!). Not to mention the results of various researchers who were unable to find any evidence of meaningfully statistically significant foreign participation in Canada’s RE marketplace.

Just so many independent sources of data point to little to no foreign participation. So either its a giant conspiracy to cover it up. Or the far more plausible truth, that is, there simply is little to no foreign participation.

Also, assuming you live in the GTA – if it took you 7 years to accumulate 200K, it does not look like you can afford to buy the average priced GTA house without some pretty severe financial rationing (ie. Not saving or investing jack squat).

If history is any indication last time there was a giant housing bubble, investing $200k (ie: a 20% downpayment on a Toronto SFH) in index funds will, after a decade, with the combination of price drops and investment returns, be enough to buy outright, in cash, a house. The guy is far from screwed. Being able to save ~$30k/year after-tax is a feat which few other Canadian families are able to accomplish these days.

#149 Shirley Valentine on 03.24.16 at 11:58 pm

OK, enough. — Garth


Well true enough host Garth…. but that smokey man stud sure does fire things up .. no? and he does need material for the book, the book. I hear you are writing the foreword to it…

And you can’t be having a financial blog with endless references to moist millennials and thirsty-underwear boomers… and not expect things to well go off the rails..

This of course – the stream of free verse – is what brings in the millions of followers.. it can’t be debates about RE!

#150 Burt on 03.25.16 at 12:03 am

Heck of a lot of “local” equity sloshing around…

Houses listed at $1.5 are going for over $2.0.

The reality on the ground is such that people are routinely paying $500,000 over ask on the handful of houses that are for sale.

The MoM and YoY comps will be beyond parabolic – on prices that are by far the highest in the nation.

#151 Bottoms_Up on 03.25.16 at 12:09 am

#11 Frank on 03.24.16 at 5:55 pm
———————————
Garth do you secretly work for the banks or just have a hankering for seeing rates actual normalize? I acted on similar advice you provided at the end of 2009 and rates have gone in the opposite direction since (over 6 years now).

Are there metrics you look at that prove to you rates will be significantly higher in 5 years? Are you putting odds of that happening at about 80:20 or?

#152 bobs uruncle on 03.25.16 at 12:11 am

Gang,
Ivey Biz Skool or Rotman Biz Skool? What say u all?

#153 Chaddywack on 03.25.16 at 12:24 am

There has always been a large Chinese presence in Vancouver. In the 1970s when my mom was going to high school in East Vancouver she told me that 50% of her school was of Chinese background. The difference then was that most of the students of Chinese background were from Hong Kong, not mainland China. There were also a lot of Italians in the neighbourhood who left Italy after WWII due to lack of employment there. The neighbourhood was mixed, Chinese, Italians, Polish, Ukranians along with “old stock” Scots, English, Irish.

I remember reading somewhere that during the Gold Rush there was a higher population of Chinese in Vancouver (percentage wise) than even now. Not sure if that’s true or not, but the Chinese have been in Vancouver for a long time, since the founding of the city basically.

I agree that the demographic makeup of the city has changed over the years, but there always have been a lot of different groups here. The Mainland Chinese thing will stop someday and a new wave will start coming in……it has always been this way in Vancouver…ebbs and flows from different groups.

#154 Eggberta on 03.25.16 at 12:52 am

We are in a Japanese style capitialist end game no recovery scenario…NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES ARE COMING….DO WHAT RICH PEOPLE DO USE LEVERAGE…WHY…because all hard assets will continue to rise in this environment…no one is going to butcher the pig or pop the bubble…deleveraging at this point is impossible…it would unleash chaos at these levels…the coordinated global banking system is working together to avoid deflation and they will do what ever it takes…the whole system is predicated on expanding debt…

#155 Entrepreneur on 03.25.16 at 1:12 am

I wish this would all go away so we all can live a normal live, the basics. It is so forgotten.

#142 Puzni…you might be onto something, self-interest in play at the top. They do seem to be asleep at the wheel as if something to hide. I wonder!?!

I disagree that it is low interest rates, the banks are turning people down. I don’t believe it is moving up either, that has all stopped. People only have certain amount of money, not only that, but energy.

Will the real villain stand up?

#156 fishman on 03.25.16 at 1:15 am

OS Chinese (Overseas Chinese) control say 75% of the liquidity around the Pacific Rim. I’d guess (because I’m so provincial)on the east side the biggest chunk is in Vancouver: but still,Seattle, Frisco, L.A., Lima, Panama City? Nothing like the west side though. Indonesia, Malaya,Thailand,Vietnam.Singapore. Philippines, Burma, Laos? When the peasants get restless there, the elites let them conduct mini pogroms,by burning down chinese businesses & killing a few chinamen. Here in Vancouver its been a little over 100 years since we grabbed some clubs & went smashing chinese stores & hunting chinamen. Luckily they weren’t standing on Pender with a “safe place” protest sign. They went a hiding and nobody got killed. I’d suggest we could have a repeat pogrom here on the west side, burn a few chinese mansions down to give a good “vent”. Trouble is that 30 years after the Vancouver Chinese riots, burning a couple dozen jews to death in their temple in a pogrom turned into a couple of million in the ovens. These kind of things can get out of hand. We’ll have to come up with a less catastrophic method of “venting”. Maybe this blog will work in strange & mysterious ways.

As a note of interest to Canadian history freaks. A very young assistant secretary, Mackenzie King was sent by the federal government to Vancouver to evaluate the compensation to be paid to the aggrieved store owners.
Most claims were in the $400 range but about a dozen were $1200-$1800. When he asked why ,he was told that it was because they were opium dens. He asked to see them & when he returned to Ottawa he wrote up Canada’s first narcotic laws.

#157 Karl hungus on 03.25.16 at 1:35 am

It’s about balance? Not plowing your money into a single asset? Disagree. It’s about what gonna give you the best ror.

#158 Blacksheep on 03.25.16 at 1:47 am

Garth / Don #96,

“It is two years old and was taken directly from a Harper budget.”
————————————————–
Not that I have a dog in this fight, but I’ve got to point out:

1) You’ve repeatedly reassured the Dogs, this form of action would never occur and thus presents as, wholly unnecessary.

2) It’s obvious to all that, T2 is hell bent on taking his policies, in a significantly different direction than his predecessor.

3) Why then, “was it taken directly from”
a conservative budget and used “word for word”, as you point out, In a liberal Budget ?

And I don’t think “they’ve got a lot on their plate” is a viable explanation. When a simple omission would have done the job.

This doesn’t add up….

#159 westsider on 03.25.16 at 2:24 am

I love the Asian investors. I have a house on my right that has been empty for 10 years. The house across the street has been empty for 3 years and the house to my left was asking $3.1 mill, sold in 2 days for $3.6 mill, and is empty. No parking problems, no noise. No problems. I wish the whole street was sold to Asian investors. I’d be rid of all my nosey neighbours and live in a park like setting.Welcome to Vancouver. Ni how!!!

#160 Hugh Jass on 03.25.16 at 3:02 am

Even China just put in their own rules to prevent foreign buyers driving up the market.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-25/shanghai-tightens-rules-for-non-local-home-buyers-as-prices-soar

Yet in Vancouver, no one wants to take on this issue in a serious way. Why don’t we have a real debate about how this issue is impacting our city and how our tax laws are antiquated and not keeping up with the new global world. Foreigner buyers pay no income tax yet enjoy much of the benefits our society provides. Locals have to pay 50% tax on income and then try to compete for the same homes with foreign nationals. Christy should wake up, because this will be the key election issue in the next election. I own my own home in Vancouver and have benefited greatly (on paper) from price rise, but i would still vote for someone that will tackle this issue. Paper gains are worthless. Sell and go where? Job and family and all my roots are here in VanCity.

#161 Interest Rate Cooling RE...Maybe on 03.25.16 at 3:03 am

Using BCREA (…calm down Garth) March 2016 Forecast of 5 Year Fixed Term rates (2016 Q1 at 4.64% vs. 2017 Q4 at 4.93%) here is the mortgage math:

$1 million mortgage, a payments increase $1,961/year.
$500K mortgage, a payments increase $981/year.

Either way and in YVR, people will find that money. What will stop the YVR RE speculation, large price increases is (broken record time) a:

Job Loss Recession.

For now, the interest rate math does not support your assertion of the YVR RE market cooling due to interest rate increases.

MSM have COMPLETELY ignored the last few dismal Labour Force Survey’s (Nov. 2015: -0.2%, Dec. 2015: 0.1%, Jan. 2015: 0.0%, Feb. 2016: 0.0%).

If job creation like this continues, YVR RE will cool some time this year…another economic shock like that of oil, it will cool sooner.

#162 Vangrrl on 03.25.16 at 3:25 am

Wow, heads in the sand. ‘Our city’??
Migration is only going to increase in the future, be it people fleeing their homelands in places like Syria or fleeing for environmental reasons (seen photos of China’s pollution problems lately?). I don’t blame them for buying property in Canada. Go for it. Just because we were born there doesn’t give us dibs on owning land- be glad you were born and raised there and had it so good.
Anyone can become Canadian and that is one of the best things about our country. I’m currently living where my mum was born and though it’s a very pretty, sunny island I am thankful she immigrated and I grew up n Canada.
With over 7 billion people on earth and counting, you’re going to see a lot more ‘foreigners’ moving in. Deal with it!

#163 the Awakened One on 03.25.16 at 3:28 am

#108 – But Garth, do you in your heart of hearts truly believe that foreign ownership doesn’t play a significant role in the price of RE in Vancouver?

“As this blog attests, the role is psychological. And it’s destroying a cool city”. — Garth

It’s in human psyche: nesting instinct. Everyone is doing it – not just the Chinese. However, particularly Asian / Oriental cultures have always emphasized on the pride & importance of owning a house. Thus the mayhem now in Vancouver… prices are being pushed & blown up like a cancerous balloon, with realtors running around like horny wh*res in heat.

And the @#*&$** banks ! Man, they are the true PIMPs!

Perhaps foreign money does represent one spoke of the wheel, but oh boy… other spokes are all created by greed and local people – us – no matter what skin colour you have – you jump in and buy, and re-sell it for big $$$.

Everyone wants easy money that keeps ballooning up like nothing else. And with a mortgage helper suites and lane way houses – we’ll keep climbing up this #@&*ing mad ladder, right ?

Go on youtube and search ” China ghost cities ” – you’ll see some very interesting bubbles documentaries. But we must be special here in Vancouver, right ? Sure, the whole world wants to come here and live: beautiful sceneries, the oceans, the cherry, the mountains… and MASSIVE mortgage. Time will tell…

BTW: I’m not making this up – my friend was qualified last week for $ ONE MILLION mortgage based on his 100K income by one of the Big Five banks – Someone kick me in the balls and tell me I’m crazy…. or didn’t hear that right ?

Why the $%@* would the bank do that to someone who desperately wants a house and has baby fever ???

Now I can see why a couple with decent combined income over 100K can easily / and likely will risk everything to mortgage themselves to death & jump into a house!

The shit will hit the fan folks… just wait for it !

#164 Dominik Fung on 03.25.16 at 3:47 am

“I do strongly encourage you to spend a weekend at open houses here.”

That won’t happen because the deniers have to stick to their fiction to support the notion that race riots will break out if anyone tells the truth about foreign nation of Chinese ethnicity. The deniers think that all Canadian born Chinese will freak out if any one says anything, while in fact we are as pissed off at being shunted out of our homes as everyone else. The crooks are foreign nationals not Canadian Chinese, but to the HAM eniers, we all look the same.

Speaking of fiction:

“People with more money than you must have stolen it? Sad. — Garth”

China has reported that 1.3 trillion dollars has been stolen by corrupt players in that country. The Chinese government has giant posters all over the world hundreds of Most Wanted pictures. China has signed extradition treaties with 62 countries in the past two years . They are repatriating crooks from those countries as we speak. But Canada refuses to abide by international standards on money laundering and proceeds of crime law.

China has asked the Canadian government many times very publicly to return the crooks they want in Canada, numbering in the tens of thousands.

#165 Zed in Geneva on 03.25.16 at 5:04 am

How is it different to have HAM coming to Canada to buy a house or an apartment from a canadian buying in Florida or Arizona?

In both cases the foreign buyer is creating a demand on the local RE and proping up the prices.

Maybe regular peoples in FL and AZ would like cheaper RE but because of canadians buying, there is less oversupply to keep prices down.

#166 Sc on 03.25.16 at 5:07 am

Garth, you do not live in Vancouver, you have no idea what you are talking about. It’s 50%+ Chinese money.

#167 family beagle on 03.25.16 at 5:16 am

Nice pic… “Honey, let’s double down on real estate.”

#168 maxx on 03.25.16 at 6:48 am

#14 S.Bby on 03.24.16 at 6:07 pm

“We really do need higher interest rates.”

Absolutely, however the grotesquely over-sized egos who created this mess in the first place would have to admit: a) their humongous error, and b) employ a solution recklessly glossed over in favour of (historically) easy money. Now that tax locomotive is slowing down and eventually the world’s fiscal topography will be pock-marked with debt and deficit.

There is currently no evidence of sufficient maturity and adequate cojones to kick-start this solution.

#169 NigelM on 03.25.16 at 7:22 am

Does the lack of quality data impact the 5% ownership level quoted by the other parties? I agree with you that 33% is dead wrong but I’m not convinced the 5% argument has a great foundation either. I think it’s higher and that money is likely flowing into Canada from Asia through relatives that are now settled here and are PR/Citizens. Looking solely at foreign nationals isn’t the full picture. It’s too black and white. Thanks

#170 WUL on 03.25.16 at 8:06 am

So, Calgary billionaire Murray Edwards is taking up British domicile. The press is spinning this as a move to avoid oppressive tax regimes in Alberta and Canada.

Fact is, if I was compelled to watch his NHL team as often as he is, I would move to Brighton as well (the comfort of the owner’s box notwithstanding).

#171 George S on 03.25.16 at 9:01 am

When the data is bad you can’t say anything. You have no idea what is going on. There is no use even commenting on what is going on. Especially in the real estate industry where RE agents may be unscrupulous occasionally and make more money when the sale prices are higher.

That is why the previous government removed the mandatory requirement from the census, it made the information from the census not statistically valid so they could make up whatever crap they wanted about the economy and other things and not be proven wrong.

#172 Garht on 03.25.16 at 9:06 am

Please open your eyes drive around the GTA and then tell me outside money is not buying real estate. Oakville is being bought by middle east people, Markham by Chinese. Again before you sit at your computer and look at numbers go for a drive, visit sales offices, look at store signs..etc. The days of bubbles is done, sure I missed the boat to put my family out of a middle class that is sinking.

Dumbest comment of the day. And, man, there’s stiff competition. — Garth

#173 Boomer Death Counter on 03.25.16 at 9:36 am

Garry Shandling. Gone at 66.

David Letterman. Looking like a ghost.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/23/entertainment/david-letterman-beard-santa-feat/

Bowie marked the beginning of the end for Boomers. The overwhelming majority will be dust by 2025, only 8.5 years away.

But as far as real political influence?

Boomers will be toast by 2019. That’s about 2.5 years away.

All that self-serving trickle-down ideology will be toast.

All the talk of “pull yourselves up by your own bootstraps, like we did – after inheriting the easiest pathway to middle class life ever” – will be just a distant, fraudulent memory of a generation born on third base, thinking it hit a triple.

In the interim, massive wealth taxes, inheritance taxes and appropriation of ill-gotten gains, to benefit the real, broader society, will be a necessity.

It’s what Jesus would do.

So will the new J.

Justin.

Boomers were born between 1946 and 1964. The oldest is 70 and the youngest is 52. You have at least 30 more years of oppression ahead, kid. — Garth

#174 A man about a dog on 03.25.16 at 10:10 am

Here’s another article “proving” that wealthy chinese really are driving home prices.

http://www.scmp.com/comment/blogs/article/1929324/study-reveals-awfulness-canadian-investor-immigration-income-tax

Summary:
– Quebec admits 1750 millionaire immigrants every year through a federal program
– Ian Young asserts that the majority of these are chinese
– Who then make their way to Vancouver and buy real estate.

The hongcouver club are going to love this. Should make for a fun holiday friday on the blog. I’ll throw out a few questions:

Comparing yearly sales volumes in vancouver to 1750 millionaire immigrants. Not sure if it’s significant.

How does it compare with volume of high-end sales?

Since this is a federal program. Some data should exist about how many of these millionaire immigrants are actually chinese. Ian Young says it’s the majority. Doesn’t seem to be supported though.

Not sure about his data that most of these immigrants then make their way to vancouver to buy real estate. Too lazy to look closer but I’m sure the blog dogs can debate this out.

I personally would be a lot more comfortable with this discussion if it was focused on wealthy immigrants. Not wealthy chinese immigrants. Just because Canada has an extensive history of racism towards the chinese.

#175 b riding dirty on 03.25.16 at 10:13 am

Garth, great fun vacation for you, come out to vancouver. And let’s tour open houses one weekend. Then sunday write your blog post about your findings.

Your a writing a point of view with out seeing it first hand.

Reminding me of brian williams.

Better weather out here your dog would love it

A tour of open houses shows lots of people of Asian heritage, as in Toronto. They could be from Richmond (or Markham) as easily as Beijing. No insights there. Just prejudice. — Garth

#176 Ret on 03.25.16 at 10:25 am

Sorry teacher haters, I don’t see any classroom teachers making $157,000 on the just released Ontario Salary Disclosure List.

But here is an Asphalt Raker in Hamilton who made that much. Eight people in Hamilton made more than Premier Kathleen Wynne last year.

One in five workers broke the $100,000 list. One Deputy Chief on the list has over $30,000 of taxable benefits which don’t include pension contributions. Another Deputy Chief has over $28,000 of benefits. Luxury cars for the two Deputy Chiefs maybe? What is going on?

Come voting time, city workers know where their bread is buttered. They vote Liberal!

I love the way the Councillors in Hamilton are always blaming social services (poor people) for escalating property taxes while they added another 674 workers to the Sunshine List.

The top 100 from Hamilton,

http://www.thespec.com/news-story/6405531-one-in-five-city-workers-is-in-the-100-000-club/

#177 Daisy Mae on 03.25.16 at 10:30 am

#72: “You liked segregation better, I guess. — Garth”

******************************

Hardly. It’s what Vancouver and area has become — Richmond is another Chinatown, becoming exclusively Asian. The new Canadians do not integrate. Richmond belongs to BC, BC belongs to Canada. Canada has two official languages. Mandarin is not one of them.

People are free to speak, write and think in any language they wish. Canada, BC and Vancouver belong to all of the people who live there, not just those who have dwelled there the longest. If that were the case only aboriginals would have rights. — Garth

#178 The Lazy Taoist on 03.25.16 at 10:32 am

The article meant to say: “33% of homes were purchased by Greater Fools”.

#179 Bytor the Snow Dog on 03.25.16 at 10:51 am

BlackDog @ 71 sez- “…the bigger problem is not that women lie and accuse men of sexual assault in a court of law. It is that men sexually assault women on a regular basis, and most of them get away with it.”

Well ya see Doggie, us men have to do this. Why? Because there was a resolution passed by the Patriarchy Council that directs men to, and I quote “sexually assault women on a regular basis”. Getting away with it was not specifically mentioned but I’m sure it’s an extra added bonus.

Just following orders Ma’am.

#180 MoneyMyHoney on 03.25.16 at 11:01 am

The problem is those working in the bank know who is going to finish the mortgage fast (in less than a year) and who will struggle to pay.
I don’t work in the banking industry but do have friends in the mortgage section of the banking industry. Understand that those who pay in one year time are not limited to Chinese. There are Russians who take a 6 month mortgage. They do this to avoid the question of where did the money come from. Then at the end of the 6th month, the mortgage is fully paid. How?
At least one bank is trying to throw some light into all these transactions. Don’t shoot the messenger or don’t close your eyes and say that it is dark. If it was not for the foreign cash, the market would have stabilized long back.

There is no evidence of that, when over 90% of all transactions are local in every market in Canada. — Garth

#181 Rich Young on 03.25.16 at 11:06 am

WE give up. Paying $1125 rent here in Calgary. We have hired a realtor. With rates like this we can have little skin in the game and get a home for $1700 a month which is nicer than our rental and more suited to our needs. We currently sock a ridiculous amount away each month. The province is going bankrupt and nobody cares. Our realtor sent a list. We wanted to look at 3 properties today and now the one we liked the most just sold ahead of our viewing. This market is far from dead. Money is simply too cheap and will stay cheap. JAPANADA here we come!

Buy if you want, but don’t fall for the deception of comparing your monthly rent to a monthly mortgage payment. You must factor in closing costs, selling costs, property tax, increased insurance, maintenance, renos plus the lost earning power of your down payment. — Garth

#182 Boomer Man on 03.25.16 at 11:07 am

#171 Boomer Death Counter on 03.25.16 at 9:36 am

Garry Shandling. Gone at 66.

David Letterman. Looking like a ghost.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/23/entertainment/david-letterman-beard-santa-feat/

Bowie marked the beginning of the end for Boomers. The overwhelming majority will be dust by 2025, only 8.5 years away.

But as far as real political influence?

Boomers will be toast by 2019. That’s about 2.5 years away.

All that self-serving trickle-down ideology will be toast.

All the talk of “pull yourselves up by your own bootstraps, like we did – after inheriting the easiest pathway to middle class life ever” – will be just a distant, fraudulent memory of a generation born on third base, thinking it hit a triple.

In the interim, massive wealth taxes, inheritance taxes and appropriation of ill-gotten gains, to benefit the real, broader society, will be a necessity.

It’s what Jesus would do.

So will the new J.

Justin.

Boomers were born between 1946 and 1964. The oldest is 70 and the youngest is 52. You have at least 30 more years of oppression ahead, kid. — Garth

…..
Hey kid, what a load of tripe. Ever hear of stagflation…. T1 was a big part of it… T2 ain’t gonna walk on water for long… debt til ya drop.

#183 For those about to flop... on 03.25.16 at 11:09 am

#80 A belieber on 03.24.16 at 8:09 pm
#62 sockeye sam on 03.24.16 at 7:37 pm

I wish I knew how to post pictures on this site.

————

Post them on imgur.com or another free image sharing site. Then post the link to the album on here.

you must be a wrinklie.

I told you vancouver was going to run into problems without any young people. I’m still offering my services. This one is free.

//////////////////////////////

Hey Beebs ,I signed up for an account at imgur but I couldn’t work out how to load the photos into an album.My usual tech teacher ,my wife can’t help me this time as she has no need to do that this way.

Help the semi wrinklie out with some more details as I want to show some photos of a house that is around 15 years old getting ready to be bulldozed, which makes no sense at all.

Here’s what you might be able to help me with.
How do I take photos out of my iPad photo section and upload them to imgur ….when I tried to mail them to my account it said ” not a valid email address”

Also on imgur ,when I was in the create an album section ,when I clicked on ” select an image ” nothing happened,besides being stupid what do you reckon my problem is?

Thankyou for this community service ,and I will try to laugh a little less at your b-grade tattoos and a friendly reminder that socks go on your feet, not your head…

M41BC

#184 WallOfWorry on 03.25.16 at 11:16 am

Garth,

I would be interested in your view of the chart below that shows that wages as a % of GDP has been declining in the US since 1970’s and as a result, the middle class has been gutted. In fact, the middle class that once existed in the US was due to the growth of net worth from housing and with the housing burst there that pretty much decimated the middle class. However, aren’t the structural issues there much different than here? Even with the stock market rebound, the vast majority of Americans have benefitted as they have not held significant equities. Thus, that is why we are seeing the dichotomy of an apparent recovery in the US economy coupled with the fact that they have over 25% of their population on food stamps and other subsidies. In fact, if you unpack the most recent consumer spending component of GDP growth, a lot of it comes from healthcare spending (as the US includes the Obamacare tax in their consumer spending metric) which is not included in any comparison to Canada.

http://www.oftwominds.com/photos2015/GDP-wages8-15a.png

US unemployment has fallen by half in six years, the federal deficit is shrinking, the GDP is expanding, corporate profits are on track and the slow recovery continues. You worry too much. — Garth

#185 Woke To The Sounds Of Horking on 03.25.16 at 11:17 am

Blog dogs got to read “The Age Of Stagnation” published in 2015 by Satyajit Das, a former financier and banker from Australia, to understand how we’ve entered a new economic paradigm and why growth’s gonna be limp — or outright strangled to death — from here on in. He even talks about the bloated housing markets in developed economies.
It’d be wise to adjust your expectations of 7-9% avg annual gain from balanced, diversified portfolios. We’re somewhere else now. The kids have good reason to not fully truss it. Pass the marshmallows!

Actually financial assets will do far better than real ones. You have it backwards. — Garth

#186 TurnerNation on 03.25.16 at 11:29 am

Once again B. Lamb showed up, at Drumpf last nite. I guess there’s only so many joints in this lil town. Buzzkill.

#187 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.25.16 at 11:41 am

@#171 B. D. C.

“most boomers will be dust by 2025”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Bwahahahahahaha.
Keep dreaming my delusional, inheiritance coveting, jealous “Generation Y bother”.
Apparently you havent noticed the amount of centenagerians’ birthdays announced daily on the news. Most of them are 104 on average and there was a lady a few weeks ago who was 107.
We plan on drooling and eating porridge while you change our thirsty underwear for many many decades yet to come……my only suggestion…..invest in a pair of rubber gloves.

#188 WallOfWorry on 03.25.16 at 11:42 am

Garth…#182….you are quite mistaken. Corporate profits are declining….you need to look at data more objectively. Also, GDP growth is anemic relative to government debt, so the bullish view that you have on interest rates should be somewhat muted for it is obvious that the US cannot afford normal interest rates based upon current GDP growth. Finally, the employment growth that you reference is disproportionately skewed to low income jobs. Perhaps you need to expand your myopic view that the only risk we should focus on is Canadian housing?

Portfolio management is risk management. It’s what I do daily. You have nothing to teach. — Garth

#189 Toronto Steve on 03.25.16 at 11:49 am

Garth & Blog Dogs,

Did anyone make it to the Global Risk Institute’s “Myth vs Reality: Is Canada’s Housing Market Overbuilt or Overheated?” seminar last night? (linked via name)

Anything interesting to report?

#190 jess on 03.25.16 at 11:56 am

…who will they sell to of median income after tax 74k?
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/famil108a-eng.htm

Seven of the 10 municipalities with the highest proportion of seniors were in British Columbia.
https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/as-sa/98-311-x/98-311-x2011001-eng.cfm

#191 TurnerNation on 03.25.16 at 11:56 am

The de-industrialization of Kanada continues. Of course our politicians will do nothing. This all is decided higher up in the pyramid. Their jobs is distractions. Handing our money away, promising JobsForWorkingFamilies (like you and me) and most importantly passing 1001 new laws against us each year. Tax farm slavery.

And KeepingUsSafe from VeryBadMen overseas, strangely who have no demands to us. Which means they are quite fat and happy on CIA payroll. A Strategy of Tension. Terror around every corner! Papers Please. Still works.

From Edmonton to Estevan, anger flares in oil-patch regions ignored by EI changes
Edmonton Journal – 15 hours ago
The number of Albertans collecting EI rose 91 per cent in January year-over-year, says Statistics Canada. Candace Elliott. Share Adjust Comment Print.
Alberta’s brutal EI number: Jobless benefits are now up 91% The Globe and Mail
Number of Albertans colecting EI jumps 91% year-over-year bnn.ca

#192 Grantmi on 03.25.16 at 12:09 pm

http://ow.ly/3zqXHE

Rich man poor man saying the crash is coming. Based on your boomer cash out.

Every time someone wishes to sell a new book they predict a market collapse. The only thing that comes true is a book collapse. — Garth

#193 jess on 03.25.16 at 12:10 pm

will reverse mortgages be at the top of the next headlines e.g.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/15/business/reverse-mortgages-costing-some-seniors-their-homes.html?_r=0

#194 family beagle on 03.25.16 at 12:17 pm

#185 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.25.16 at 11:41 am
@#171 B. D. C.

“most boomers will be dust by 2025”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Bwahahahahahaha.
Keep dreaming my delusional, inheiritance coveting, jealous “Generation Y bother”.
Apparently you havent noticed the amount of centenagerians’ birthdays announced daily on the news. Most of them are 104 on average and there was a lady a few weeks ago who was 107.
We plan on drooling and eating porridge while you change our thirsty underwear for many many decades yet to come……my only suggestion…..invest in a pair of rubber gloves

….

Not dust… powder.
https://youtu.be/9IKVj4l5GU4
If you can’t cough up $10k/month for a TFW to change your depends, your options shalt be limited.

#195 A belieber on 03.25.16 at 12:22 pm

#181 For those about to flop… on 03.25.16 at 11:09 am
@ sockeye sam
—————————-
Here’s what you might be able to help me with.
How do I take photos out of my iPad photo section and upload them to imgur ….when I tried to mail them to my account it said ” not a valid email address”

—————————————-

Mail them to your account? as in e-mail them? If you’re using an iPad you don’t need to do this. You can just upload the images from your iPad photo section straight to your imgur account.

Are you trying to email photos from your iPad to a home computer? I would say just do everything on the iPad. It’s easier. Some times you wrinklies really over-complicate things. I’m going to add in some extra steps for sockeye sam.

Register your account with imgur. Enter a username, email addy, password. Did you do this?

It should take you straight to the imgur home page on your iPad. You don’t need to verify the email address. Now, on your iPad on the imgur homepage. In the top right corner there’s a little symbol, it looks like a cloud. Press it.

A little ad might pop up asking you to download the imgur app. I would just close it. Now there will be a white screen. In there center there is a black circle that says “upload from device” underneath.

Press and hold that button. 3 options will come-up “take photo” “photo library” or “iCloud Drive”. If you press “photo library” if will go to all the galleries ON your iPad. From there you can select the photo’s you want to upload.
——————————–

Also on imgur ,when I was in the create an album section ,when I clicked on ” select an image ” nothing happened,besides being stupid what do you reckon my problem is?
—————————————-

If you’re working from your iPad click Upload. Not select an image. I don’t have anything that says “select an image” on my iPad.
———————————–

Thankyou for this community service ,and I will try to laugh a little less at your b-grade tattoos and a friendly reminder that socks go on your feet, not your head…
————————————-

No problem. I like helping out. But that doesn’t mean I am going to lay-off all you slowing-driving wrinklies.

#196 Death for Metal on 03.25.16 at 12:32 pm

Hey Garth,
I rent in SW Mississauga (Winston and 403) A semi detached, almost identical to my rental has gone up for sale. Asking $699K. I worked out the monthly with 5% down about $2800 (assuming no bidding war, there were like 6 nice benzs’ outside my place, I guess realtors) plus prop tax gotta be $3500 a month. Add in a dream kitchen and I’d be underwater.

Costs me $1600 to rent the same place. I invest the rest.

My wife and I are in pretty good jobs in demand everywhere (Electrician, Nurse) Do you think moving to Halifax is a good strategy? we could raise our kid there. And have a ton of extra cash if we are both working. If the market in the GTA does tank and we have $ to buy an investment property at a good value in the future great. It could take another 1,2,3,4,5-10 years who knows? I’m not waiting anymore. I don’t care about making money off a house, I just want my own. Just cuz. Around Halifax property taxes are like 1000 a year. F Ontario. I dont want my kid learning about gay sex. I voted conservative, but I will take advantage of these Liberal policies. One week wait time for EI thank you. I’m out YO.

#197 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.25.16 at 12:33 pm

lotsa dummies posting on this

more than typical

#198 Ole Doberman on 03.25.16 at 12:37 pm

Pretty intense debate today as expected – keep’em coming!

Thought provoking question – seems the consensus is that Asians are driving prices to these unbelievable levels, whether it’s local or foreign, either way it’s Asians. And folks living in Vancouver are attesting to this.

Garth is it safe to assume that our government is allowing more wealthy migrants into the country as opposed to typical middle class ones?

Is it possible that money connections/relatives are wiring money from China to family/”friends” in Vancouver?

Good views on both ends, don’t see how we can come to a for sure conclusion.

#199 Sun Tsu on 03.25.16 at 12:52 pm

Don’t you ‘climate change’ crazies feel stupid now that the past has caught up with ya’ll?

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/this+week+history+1913+series+storms+dump+biblical/11808906/story.html

#200 Ole Doberman on 03.25.16 at 12:55 pm

In addition to my previous post – why are people saying it’s all Asians showing up at these bidding wars in Vancouver and GTA?

Why not fleets of caucasian whites? Isn’t this fact significant…..

Over 45% of Vancouver’s population is of Asian heritage, with a cultural predisposition to real estate. — Garth

#201 Ace Goodheart on 03.25.16 at 1:09 pm

RE: “Asians driving house prices in Canada” – bunch of racist rubbish. Not worth commenting on.

Interesting fact, though: The Province of Ontario is actually this tiny little place, around the same size as the State of Maine, and it has very few metropolitan areas.

What? everyone asks. That is not true, Ontario is huge, it is 1.076 million Km square. It is gigantic. You could fit all of Western Europe into it. What are you talking about?

While the above is true, about 95% of Ontario is actually uninhabitable wasteland, that cannot even be visited unless you have a float plane with long range fuel tanks and good weather. There are no roads, no towns, not even an outpost. The lakes and rivers don’t have names. No person has set a foot on the land, basically ever.

So maybe real estate is expensive because it is rare. In Ontario anyway.

#202 maxx on 03.25.16 at 1:19 pm

#19 gut check on 03.24.16 at 6:15 pm

“Has anyone taken a look at the homepage of the realtor.ca website? The have the slogan “NO REGRETS” and a picture of a couple carrying a table – the faces on the couple are priceless.”

It’s the “what the hell did we just do look.” Wait ’till one of the jobs gets toasted.

#203 IHCTD9 on 03.25.16 at 1:24 pm

If history is any indication last time there was a giant housing bubble, investing $200k (ie: a 20% downpayment on a Toronto SFH) in index funds will, after a decade, with the combination of price drops and investment returns, be enough to buy outright, in cash, a house. The guy is far from screwed. Being able to save ~$30k/year after-tax is a feat which few other Canadian families are able to accomplish these days

———–

Buddy was not talking about investing it, he was talking about buying a house, and deeply regretting not doing so 7 years ago.

Investing the 200k would be the smart thing to do, but he said plainly that when his lease is up, he is buying.

Monthly payment on a million dollar mortgage well exceeds what he had been able to save monthly so far.

If you took his monthly savings and turned that same amount into a mortgage payment, he could get into a half million dollar house, aka a shack in Toronto.

Buddy is probably into his thirties already.

If he buys, and can’t save because he did so – he’s done like dinner at retirement.

That’s not even considering a downturn in housing in the next two and a half decades.

#204 Daisy Mae on 03.25.16 at 1:28 pm

“People are free to speak, write and think in any language they wish. Canada, BC and Vancouver…”

********************

Of course, they do. I didn’t say otherwise. Richmond belongs to every Canadian — not just the ones who live there — and all Canadians should feel welcome. We do not. In large part, because of the signage.

Immigrants do not integrate. I’ve witnessed this before. East Indians moved into a Vancouver neighbourhood off Kingsway many years ago — which is their right, by the way, before anyone goes off half cocked — buying up all the homes on the street as they became available. My relatives were the only remaining Caucasians left. This is not ‘integration’.

You ‘own’ Quebec in the same way you own Richmond. Try going there and telling them how to write their signs. That would be fun to watch. We are a nation of different peoples. Get used to it. — Garth

#205 eggberta on 03.25.16 at 1:39 pm

Yah its all these Chinese buying houses in Canada pushing up prices …just look at the rise in house prices in Toronto when all of those European immigrants moved into Toronto in the 1950s and 60s ….they puched up house prices 3000%..it’s just not fair….yah it’s those immigrants doing all the damage…I do not want to risk anything…it’s Hard-Hot-Heavy and it Hurts..no…Not I said the Cat…Not I said the Dog…No Not Not I said the Pig….then I will said the little Red Hen and she did!

#206 HellandBack on 03.25.16 at 1:43 pm

I always believe numbers from the BC government and real estate agent boards. They have no bias…ever. LOL

What would they have to gain by lying to you? — Garth

#207 Brazil ex-pat on 03.25.16 at 1:47 pm

#196 Ole Doberman on 03.25.16 at 12:37 pm

Is it possible that money connections/relatives are wiring money from China to family/”friends” in Vancouver?

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The answer is “Yes” and it does not matter where the money is coming from. It is money laundering. They have been discussing it in the media and blogs in Vancouver all week. Gee…is there an election coming? My buddy worked as a foreign banker professional at one of the major banks on Burrard in Vancouver in the 90s. This is 20 years ago. And would tell me about how the men would dump the wife and kids in Vancouver with RE and make their money (no tax) overseas. Did I mention this was 20 years ago? It is 100 fold since then.

Wiring money from elsewhere does not constitute ‘laundering.’ People in Vancouver are losing their collective mind. — Garth

#208 For those about to flop... on 03.25.16 at 1:49 pm

Beebs at 193

Thanks Beebs ,you gave good instructions.
I am now able to upload photos into my account but I have yet been able to post a photo on here ,I will keep plugging.

I just want to be able to show all the orange death mesh in my hood it has reached an all time high since I arrived here in 2002.

Thanks for your help and thanks for not throwing eggs at my house you little delinquent…

M41BC

#209 White Crock BC on 03.25.16 at 1:51 pm

Garth, why are you so insistent that the BoC will raise rates next year?

I mean seriously, if next year, unemployment is at 9% , GDP is barely above zero…oil around $45…no pipelines, no LNG terminals…. you really think they would still raise?

Ask the bond market. — Garth

#210 retired Boomer WI on 03.25.16 at 1:58 pm

Must be snowing in Canada. More flakes than usual here today.

Good luck with your housing BS in 2 not too fantastic cities.

In the meantime I’ll just relax here in “What, me worry land?” collect them dividend checks. Where else are you going to find 4-6% raises these days? Investments that pay you while you own them, unlike a house…

#211 WUL on 03.25.16 at 2:00 pm

It seems to me, and please correct my failing memory if I am wrong, but when Albertans purchased recreation properties at Invermere, Radium and Kootenay Lake between Creston and Balfour, B.C. with their Hot Ab. Money, they paid higher municipal property taxes than B.C. residents. That was about 30 years ago.

Is that still the case?

Perhaps a simple fix to deter suspicious and unlikeable outsiders with bags of money.

#212 Calgarian on 03.25.16 at 2:00 pm

Who is the fool now?

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/toronto/millennials-home-ownership-canada-1.3507247

Wow. A poll from a mortgage-peddling bank. Who knew? — Garth

#213 Daisy Mae on 03.25.16 at 2:03 pm

#202 – “You ‘own’ Quebec in the same way you own Richmond. Try going there and telling them how to write their signs.”

****************

I wouldn’t be interested in doing that. Quebec is a province. Richmond is a municipality.

#214 For those about to flop... on 03.25.16 at 2:07 pm

Wiring money from elsewhere does not constitute ‘laundering.’ People in Vancouver are losing their collective mind. — Garth

///////////////////////////

If this was the case I will be doing 5/10 years in the big house for wiring money to my Superannuation account in Oz….as long as I get wifi in jail I will be o.k…

M41BC

#215 liquidincalgary on 03.25.16 at 2:08 pm

the implications of a ‘bail in’ have cropped up again.

http://www.therebel.media/handsoffmymoney

Ezra really jumped the shark this time. More soon. — Garth

#216 saskatoon on 03.25.16 at 2:20 pm

#71 BlackDog

“I’m not playing judge or jury here.”

yes, you are–this is exactly what you are doing.

either you simply don’t realize that this is what you are doing…or you are being manipulative.

i vote for number two.

“The bigger problem is…that men sexually assault women on a regular basis, and most of them get away with it.”

this is absolutely false, and (if you have a shred of empathy) you should feel ashamed of propagating such hatred:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2014/09/22/rape-cdc-numbers-misleading-definition-date-forced-sexual-assault-column/16007089/

“men are raped by women at nearly the same rate that women are raped by men”

“that these three women (although they may have lied/forgotten/been inconsistent about some details ) may still have been telling the truth about the punching and the choking.”

exactly–and they liked it.

“A 2012 study from University of Ottawa criminology professor Holly Johnson…”

seriously? holly johnson? LOL.

this is her job description:

holly studies “intimate partner violence and sexual violence, including prevention, criminal justice and social responses, and methods of measurement; feminist theory and gender theory.”

her JOB is dependent upon manipulating students/data to continue the needless hate.

there is NO RAPE CULTURE in the west.

you have no consistent moral principles.

you are irrational.

you are the most dangerous of people.

#217 For those about to flop... on 03.25.16 at 2:21 pm

Testing ,testing 123.

Beebs ,I took a photo of a hat,let’s see what happens

My wife says I must be the only person on the planet that can include Paul Allen and EA as former employers and not know much about computers.

Sad but true…

M41BC

http://imgur.com/5b00Zkn

#218 Daisy Mae on 03.25.16 at 2:23 pm

“We are a nation of different peoples. Get used to it. — Garth”

********************

Yes, we definitely are. But we don’t integrate. We live in separate ‘pockets’ of Canada.

#219 kommykim on 03.25.16 at 2:24 pm

RE:The International Monetary Fund thinks so. Here it is…

I see no correlation between total debt and interest payments in that chart. In fact, the rise in total debt seems to be leveling off as interest rates have decreased. No matter how you look at it, total debt seems to have been increasing regardless of whether the interest payments were increasing or decreasing.

#220 conan on 03.25.16 at 2:30 pm

The official stats might show that 90% of all real estate transactions are of local origin, but come on………. that is the way money launderers want it to look.

We need a reality check on this not cooked stats.

PS Are you going to write the forward for Smoking Man’s book?

#221 Looking For Yield on 03.25.16 at 2:30 pm

US Corporate earnings are showing a declining trend which could affect their ability to invest for growth or maintain dividend payouts. Corporate bonds are showing the result of this. Not sure what data you are looking at Garth?

United States Corporate Profits 1950-2016 | Data | Chart | Calendar

Corporate profits in the United States decreased by 8.4 percent to 1380.4 USD Billion in the fourth quarter of 2015 from 1507.7 USD Billion in the previous period, the lowest since the first quarter of 2011. For the whole 2015, corporate profits fell 5.1 percent after 0.6 drop in the previous year. Corporate Profits in the United States averaged 395.06 USD Billion from 1950 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 1642.70 USD Billion in the third quarter of 2014 and a record low of 14.40 USD Billion in the first quarter of 1951. Corporate Profits in the United States is reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economics Analysis.

 Export Data  API Access

United States Corporate Profits

 Forecast

Watch

 Embed

#222 TurnerNation on 03.25.16 at 2:31 pm

Happy Allegorical Belief day? Can’t say for sure but it’s the Spirit who counts.

As Steppenwolf sang in “The Pusher’

“But I never touched nothin
that my spirit could(nt) kill (-ed.)

You know I’ve seen a lot of people
walking around with tombstone in their eyes
But the pusher don’t care, ah
if you live or if you die”

#223 Al on 03.25.16 at 3:06 pm

According to FINTRAC; http://www.mortgagebrokernews.ca/news/vancouver-at-high-risk-of-launderingfintrac-204908.aspx
A large number of BC Real Estate Brokers have failed to comply with FINTRAC’s reporting requirements. This allows a criminal organization to launder cash by providing a law firm with a large cash deposit for the purpose of buying real estate (lawyers do not have to report this to FINTRAC because of Lawyer-client confidentiality). Cash deposit to RE Broker who does not report this. The real estate is then re-sold through the same broker and the criminals get a cheque for the proceeds back from the lawyer – Presto cash has been laundered!

#224 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.25.16 at 3:06 pm

@#192 Family Beagle
“If you can’t cough up $10k/month for a TFW to change your depends, your options shalt be limited….”
******************************************

Charlston Heston …the Ben Affleck of his day…..neither one could(can) act their way out of a wet paper bag…..
But I digress.
I remember when Soylent Green was at the movie thee-a-ter. Corny, cheesey plot overacted by the aforementioned Heston.
A historical side note. It was the last movie of Edward G Robinsons career. Not a fitting end for an actor who worked with the greats of Hollywoods golden era.

As for me paying 10k/month for care….nah.
Your taxes will pay for it because even if you wanted to “go eskimo” the iceflows and polar bears will be gone by then…..another perk of global warming.

#225 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.25.16 at 3:12 pm

@#205 Brazil ex pat

Enough of little Vancouver’s “money laundering” issues.
Hows the impeachment of the current President of Brazil going? How many protesters are showing up at the rally’s ? 500,000? 1,000,000?
Has the former President been released from police custody yet?
Didnt the guy accused of bribing them just get sentenced to 20 years in a Brazilian jail?
I hear the economy is in its worst recession since the 1930’s depression? Is that true?

Dont be too smug my portugese swearing expat.
You’ve got waaaaaay bigger problems there than an overpriced bubbly housing market.

#226 waiting on the westcoast on 03.25.16 at 3:21 pm

#214 Daisy Mae on 03.25.16 at 2:23 pm
““We are a nation of different peoples. Get used to it. — Garth”
********************
Yes, we definitely are. But we don’t integrate. We live in separate ‘pockets’ of Canada.”

Get over it. Every immigrant community has a locus for a generation or two but it’s the children of those immigrants that truly integrate. My family and friends initially migrated to East Van (Italians) but now we are spread out throughout Vancouver and the Valley. I love watching how my kids have many friends with many ethnicities and it’s great to visit Richmond and enjoy some diversity (and dim sum too).

Hey, in Abbotsford, BC, they even have a gang that is called the UN gang because it was multinational.

#227 Brazil ex-pat on 03.25.16 at 3:25 pm

DELETED

#228 Brazil ex-pat on 03.25.16 at 3:33 pm

The answer is “Yes” and it does not matter where the money is coming from. It is money laundering. They have been discussing it in the media and blogs in Vancouver all week. Gee…is there an election coming? My buddy worked as a foreign banker professional at one of the major banks on Burrard in Vancouver in the 90s. This is 20 years ago. And would tell me about how the men would dump the wife and kids in Vancouver with RE and make their money (no tax) overseas. Did I mention this was 20 years ago? It is 100 fold since then.
Wiring money from elsewhere does not constitute ‘laundering.’ People in Vancouver are losing their collective mind. — Garth

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

then I guess the mind losing includes the law professors, bankers and politicians who have all been saying it – as it pertains to Foreign Purchased Real Estate in the audio and written interviews they have been giving all week.

#229 A belieber on 03.25.16 at 3:34 pm

#206 For those about to flop… on 03.25.16 at 1:49 pm

Thanks for your help and thanks for not throwing eggs at my house you little delinquent…

————————-

throwing eggs at houses?? I don’t get it, is that what you wrinklies did to get turnt back in the day? that’s cray. who goes outside? a playa’s got investment accounts to manage. ya know?

#230 cramar on 03.25.16 at 3:35 pm

#193 A belieber on 03.25.16 at 12:22 pm

No problem. I like helping out. But that doesn’t mean I am going to lay-off all you slowing-driving wrinklies.

———-

Every time I’m out driving and someone is holding up the train I always say to my wife, “Must be a little old lady!” When I see the driver sometimes its a man, but a lot of times the driver looks younger than me!

Last Oct. was visiting my aunt and uncle. My uncle was in the hospital so my aunt said let’s go see him. I offered to drive, but she said she would drive her car and I could follow. I was aghast that she is still driving. I don’t know how she can see over the dash. She took off with me in hot pursuit through the city. When we got to the hospital I was relieved and thought Unbelievable, she is 91!.

A few years back went to a Corvette meet and I met a older gentleman from Ohio that was displaying his late-model supercharged ZR-1. I told him the only problem with that model is that it does not come in automatic. He replied with half distain that “Real Corvette owners use both feet.” We both laughed. I then said that he was obviously a younger man, but at my age I no longer want to shift gears. He shouted, “I’M 75 YEARS OLD!!” We both roared. Then he told me he has taken it to the drag strip, and though he cannot shift quite as fast as the younger guys he did 10.8 at 128. When we parted I said I sure hope I can drive a ZR-1 like that at 75.

#231 HellandBack on 03.25.16 at 4:00 pm

“What would they have to gain by lying to you? — Garth”

Gee I wonder why.

“An assessment of Vancouver’s housing market by the Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre (FINTRAC) revealed that dozens of real estate companies in the city do not comply with regulations.”

That makes no sense. And FINTRAC has found identical results across Canada, because the regs are stupid. I opposed their introduction as an MP. — Garth

#232 For those about to flop... on 03.25.16 at 4:03 pm

#227 A belieber on 03.25.16 at 3:34 pm
#206 For those about to flop… on 03.25.16 at 1:49 pm

Thanks for your help and thanks for not throwing eggs at my house you little delinquent…

————————-

throwing eggs at houses?? I don’t get it, is that what you wrinklies did to get turnt back in the day? that’s cray. who goes outside? a playa’s got investment accounts to manage. ya know?
//////////////////////////////////

Hey Beebs,the real Beebs got in trouble a couple of years ago for throwing eggs at his neighbors house,not to sure if he got fined or was sentenced to releasing a half decent song or what.

Didn’t you get woken up in the middle of the night with an update on your tweety bird account?…

M41BC

#233 BlackDog on 03.25.16 at 4:04 pm

The phrase, ‘regular basis’ in some contexts, can be an attempt to infer a measure of statistical significance. Whereas, ‘regular basis’ in other contexts could be used to suggest something happens all the time, to everyone, by everyone.

The way to discern the true intent behind phrases such as ‘regular basis’, particularly when used by an anonymous person in the commenting section of a pathetic blog like this one, is not to zero in on just that one sentence containing that annoying, not so clear phrase, but to look at the sentences that precede and follow so as to gain a better understanding of context and the overall point of the message.

#234 sockeye sam on 03.25.16 at 4:04 pm

I couldn’t give a SH$*t what country your from or whether your skin is purple or red. I do have a problem with you tearing down that beautiful old house across the street, building your McMansion, filing up your garage with expensive cars then FU*&ing off for a year or two while I have to look at your out of control weedy front yard spreading dandelion seeds on my yard and watching the wet soggy news print build up on your front steps and listening to your stupid house alarm go off at all hours. Then when you do bring your sorry ass back into town from your communist country you put the thing up for sale hoping to make a profit in which you most likely will. Is that a community. Why do I have to move? I live here your just parking your stolen peoples money. Your a party member. You make the rules.
Waiting for the sarcastic comment.

Bitter much? — Garth

#235 Bitter Much on 03.25.16 at 4:16 pm

Thanks for that. Now I’ve got a new handle.

#236 S.Bby on 03.25.16 at 4:36 pm

#232 sockeye sam
I wish I had your problems.

#237 waiting on the westcoast on 03.25.16 at 4:48 pm

Sockeye Sam / Bitter Much…

Sounds like you don’t like your neighbourhood… I’d move if I were you.

#238 understood by few on 03.25.16 at 4:55 pm

#211 Daisy Mae on 03.25.16 at 2:03 pm


I wouldn’t be interested in doing that. Quebec is a province. Richmond is a municipality.

—————–

Erm. So you attempt to be pedantic then fail miserably. Richmond is a city not a municipality. Has be since 1990.

Here’s the thing: You are racist. You don’t think so, but you are. If anything you are the one failing to “integrate”. Don’t like that Vancouver is multicultural? Move to some tiny town in interior BC where you can be surrounded by people that are primarily white and share your “values” (i.e. just as racist as you). You can go to Timmies and bitch about how all the yellow and brown people forced you to move from Vancouver (“All the hard working people got priced out!”) and you’ll get sympathetic nods and they’ll agree that the people with different coloured skin need to “integrate”.

#239 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.25.16 at 5:12 pm

@#225 Brazil ex-pat
“Deleted”
******************************************

:)

#240 Is a recent immigrant a Canadian? on 03.25.16 at 5:28 pm

I’m surprised no one else commented on this:
The NAR’s definition of an international buyer includes non-resident foreigners and resident foreigners — that is a recent immigrant (who has been in the country for less than two years) or a temporary visa holder (who has been living in the country for at least six months).

If you are a recent immigrant with a permanent residence, are you a Canadian?

Because the 1/3rd Chinese who bought real-estate… might actually be Canadian (just newly minted Canadian).

The 33% number is totally fabricated. — Garth

#241 Tamsen on 03.25.16 at 6:10 pm

“202 Daisy Mae on 03.25.16 at 1:28 pm

“People are free to speak, write and think in any language they wish. Canada, BC and Vancouver…”

********************

Of course, they do. I didn’t say otherwise. Richmond belongs to every Canadian — not just the ones who live there — and all Canadians should feel welcome. We do not. In large part, because of the signage.

Immigrants do not integrate. I’ve witnessed this before. East Indians moved into a Vancouver neighbourhood off Kingsway many years ago — which is their right, by the way, before anyone goes off half cocked — buying up all the homes on the street as they became available. My relatives were the only remaining Caucasians left. This is not ‘integration’.

You ‘own’ Quebec in the same way you own Richmond. Try going there and telling them how to write their signs. That would be fun to watch. We are a nation of different peoples. Get used to it. — Garth”

Speaking of Quebec and our other official language, French, we see that our Canadian chartered banks’ signs especially in Richmond are only in Mandarin, Cantonese and English – no French.

What’s more telling is the change in language on real estate signs throughout the Lower Mainland over the years. Nowhere do we see more evidence of what’s happening here than on RE signage …

#242 Daisy Mae on 03.25.16 at 8:16 pm

#236: What is a municipality:

“A city or town that has corporate status and local government. synonyms: borough, town, city, district, precinct, township “the municipality of Springfield”

#243 Anon on 03.26.16 at 11:44 am

Garth,

In 2011, one of the largest realtor groups on the west side of Vancouver out out their own stats. 70% of single-family homes they sold went to mainland Chinese buyers. I still have a copy of it somewhere. This was before many people were concerned about foreign interest. A recent estimate showed the same stat for the west side in 2015, 70% as well.

Have you driven through Vancouver recently? Point grey, Marpole, Kits….almost every realtor sign has Mandarin and English. You routinely see huge ads on busses here for a Chinese realty company – all in Mandarin.

If you speak to realtors in Vancouver – the sales on the westside (half of Vancouver) are almost always mainland Chinese.

The recent government research looked at condos, attached homes etc. and not single-family homes.

Yes the locals are driving it from a volume perspective – I agree with you on that point. The thing is, the best parts of Vancouver are being snapped up in cash by people who are not earning an income here. So what you say? Well, those huge sales have been pushing up prices everywhere else. Foreign buyers were the tipping point. Half of Vancouver is completely unaffordable for 99.9% of people living and working here. The rest of Vancouver is headed that way.

I know you scream racism – but I scream fairness. I don’t mind foreign competition if I have a chance at competing. Can I earn money in Mainland China? No. I certainly can’t earn enough here in Vancouver to compete with foreign money. Hell, I make 300k a year and I can only afford an attached home in a greasy part of Vancouver.

Why is it that businesses are protected from foreign competition re: earning profits (energy, airlines, cell companies etc). yet consumers of the housing market do not?

Additionally, I don’t think you’d be crying racism if it were Canadians complaining about Americans. Maybe those that are upset with foreign competition are upset from an economic perspective vs a. Skin color perspective. Just a thought.

#244 Ace Goodheart on 03.27.16 at 6:16 pm

From CD Howe institute paper on Canadian Household debt:

“The percent of mortgage indebted households with a primary mortgage debt-to-disposable income ratio in excess of 500 percent has climbed from 3 percent in 1999 to 11 percent in 2012. That is far from the majority of Canadians, but it does represent half a million households.”

So what? 500,000 people have decided that a mortgage is not debt, but rather an asset, have borrowed more than they can ever repay in their lifetimes, and will no doubt go down in flames in the next interest rate shock.

Good for them. The rest of us are fine.