The confused

TRUMP 1 modified

Worried about what T2 will do in the budget tomorrow? Don’t. Fret instead over the poor, wretched, confused, tormented and diddled people who read this pathetic blog. Let’s visit a few.

“Long time listener first time caller….or however this works with blogs,” says Stephen.

“I’m a 38 year old guy with a now estranged wife and pregnant girlfriend. I am in the process of separating from my wife of 7 years and selling our home in Squamish BC. The crazy speculation in Vancouver has spilled north to our little community and especially recently my home value has skyrocketed.  Assuming the bottom doesn’t fall out in the next 6 weeks I will have some money that I need to invest.

“My wife and I’s assets are spread out between the equity in our home 380k after fees, 38k RRSPs, 6k TFSAs and around 6k in locked-in pension.  We have a variety of debts, loans, lines of credit and credit cards that amount to approximately 87k. So after we pay things off and split things up we should each walk away with around 170k. We are in the early stages of a lawyer writing up a separation agreement and I wanted to reach out to you now in order to make sure I don’t miss any strategic moves.”

So, he’s left his wife, taken up with another woman, started a second family, amassed few assets, and has no agreement to formalize the separation or protect his position. Let’s have a moment of silence for the squishable Squamish Stevo.

Obviously, dude, do nothing until you and the ex have come to a meeting of the minds, and papered it. Will this be an equal division of assets? Does she still live in the house? How will you handle any financing against it? Who signed for that $87,000 in debts? Could an outstanding or disputed secured LOC hold up the sale? Have you discussed spousal support? And what do you have to offer the new babe, who’s about to produce a new dependent and take a year off for mat leave, when you’re walking away with just $170,000 (if you’re really, really lucky)? Which head came up with this plan?

Hormones alone won’t do it, Steve. You need a lawyer. Then a financial strategy. And stop writing to blogs. Sheesh.

“I am a big fan of your blog but would like some clarification on you rule of 90,” says Nancy. To remind, I have suggested deducting your age from 90 to ascertain a reasonable amount of your net worth to have in a house. The theory is young people can tolerate more debt and risk. Wrinklies, not so much

“Does the 90 minus your age have to do with the equity in your home or with the mortgage for it? I have a mortgage of 50k on a home worth about 400k (I live in Edmonton so not sure how accurate that will be in another year), in addition to about 75k my husband and I have in TFSA’s or RRSP’s.  We are both late thirties, so is too much of our worth tied to the home?  Should we borrow a small amount against the home and invest?  How do you feel about borrowing against your home for investing purposes, we don’t need the RRSP deductions because our income is too small, but could still increase our TFSA’s?”

Looks like Nancy and hubs have a net worth of $425,000, of which $350,000, or 82%, is in a single asset. Not smart, especially in Edmonton where the real estate wobble has really just begun. At their age, about 50% of net worth in a house should be the max amount.

So, to clarify, net worth is assets less debt. A $400,000 house with a fifty grand mortgage means $350,000 in equity. Add in the liquid assets, and that gives total NW. Of that (in this instance) the house dominates. Thus, she and her squeeze have a serious lack of diversification and balance.

Borrow against the home to invest? Sure, it’s a strategy, and rates have never been lower – which means you can get money at less than 3%, enjoy 100% tax-deductible interest, and hopefully invest for returns which are double the cost of borrowing. But leverage also brings risk. You have to ignore market volatility, keep a long-term focus, maintain a liquid portfolio, be prepared for higher borrowing costs down the road (all LOCs are variable rate) and ensure your portfolio is balanced and well-maintained.

Bottom line: every mortgage payment makes you more invested in one asset. A better strategy: sell, invest the proceeds to pay your rent, and avoid what’s coming.

Or you could, like unsuspecting Sebastien, walk straight into the maw of the storm.

“I’m hoping you read this and can give me some input on my dilemma. I’m a 23 year old tradesman living at home. My income is roughly $70,000 however, I am not yet a journeyman so I can expect around $80-100k within a year or so and I have $33,000 in cash and investments. My grandfather whom is a decamillionare real estate investor/businessman has given me $25,000 to invest and more after I can show I’ve done good with it in a year. He isn’t one for the markets and all I know how to do is invest in index funds.

“So, I’ve looked at getting a $450,000 house with a suite in the Fraser Valley so I could live in the bottom and rent the top using the leverage to help pay the mortgage and voila an investment. Assuming a buy and hold strategy, I don’t think it would be the worst possible thing. I know from reading your blog, these aren’t the best of times and I would normally refrain from any sort of real estate but given the circumstances do you think it could be a wise decision to lock in?”

Oh, Seb, you innocent. Mom has sure protected you from the real world, hasn’t she?

Listen, kid, you’ve barely enough money to cover the closing costs on a $450,000 house, which will total more than six times your annual income. You have to qualify at the posted bank rate (doubtful), then shoulder a mortgage, property tax, insurance and maintenance, plus repairs and utilities. All for living in a basement – and hoping you can be cash-flow positive after buying an asset inflated in value because rates are low and demented people live down the highway in Vancouver.

After a year there’s no way you’ll have made a dollar, since liquidating the asset would mean paying a fat commission. Besides, why the hell does a 23-year-old want to be $400,000 in debt? What if your trade falls on hard times, or you have to move to find work? Not to mention you’ll have to be washing your own undies now.

I doubt your zillionaire grandfather made his money buying anything at the top of the market with a trainload of debt destined to reset at higher rates. Did you ask him? Invest your money in good ETFs inside a tax shelter and relish the freedom, mobility and spirit of your youth. That’s the way to make old men impressed. And achingly envious.

177 comments ↓

#1 Sickening Truth on 03.21.16 at 5:37 pm

Anyone that followed the rule of 90 missed out on the greatest bull run in Canadian real estate history with what’s happening in Vancouver.

And for those wanting to follow it in Vancouver, it could hurt you even more. Shenzen prices tripled in a matter of a few years. Who thinks that can’t happen here? Prices increases are currently on that trajectory.

That was funny. — Garth

#2 pathcontrolmonk on 03.21.16 at 5:44 pm

I regretfully visited Vancouver yesterday and took some friends for a barely edible lunch at the Sandbar in Granville Island, P.S. don’t go there. We had 3 tables in earshot and all of them talked YVR RE as they tried to swallow their 3 day old fresh seafood. My European friends couldn’t stop making condescending comments about bad Canadian food and how gauche Canadians are as we drove back to Seattle. I don’t think I can go to Van anymore, it is too embarrassing.

#3 Newbie on 03.21.16 at 5:45 pm

Young, rich and beautiful …

#4 Dave on 03.21.16 at 5:49 pm

What I want to know is what trade pays 24 year old j men 80 to 100 per year??

#5 economictsunami on 03.21.16 at 5:51 pm

Chart of the Week: One city is propping up Canada’s housing market

“Canada’s market as a whole saw gains of 0.6% in the month, but it would have dropped to a lacklustre -1.1% without the inclusion of Vancouver in the 11-city index.

The only problem?

The city, which has been a primary beneficiary of rampant foreign buying, is continually cited as the market most ripe for a deep correction, as it continues to defy all common sense.”

http://www.businessinsider.com/one-city-is-propping-up-canadas-housing-market-2016-3

#6 hope & ruin on 03.21.16 at 5:56 pm

Listen, kid, you’ve barely enough money to cover the closing costs on a $450,000 house, which will total more than six times your annual income. You have to qualify at the posted bank rate (doubtful)
_____________________________________

A 70k income for a 450k house? As long as this kid has a decent credit score and a little bit of savings. I guarantee that the bank would fall over themselves to give him a mortgage.

#7 HellandBack on 03.21.16 at 5:59 pm

Squamish Stevo, you are F’ed, get a vasectomy ASAP.

#8 Peter on 03.21.16 at 6:07 pm

While we’re asking for advice here’s mine:

Partner and I rent in Van for $1700/month. Our income is $200K. We’re trying for a baby and are fine raising children in an apartment for awhile while they’re small. In 5-10 years we’d like to move to Victoria. We can expect our income to fall to $160K. We have the option there to buy my mother’s property for a sweetheart deal, we currently have a networth of $300K on investments. Her house is in bad shape and we would rebuild. Where it gets interesting: I’m a fan of my mother and she’d like some work done to the house for her comfort. How could I help finance the rebuild now? Does that even make sense?

#9 Vundo on 03.21.16 at 6:09 pm

Stephen’s story reads like an advertisement for the Freedom First lifestyle.

#10 Dean on 03.21.16 at 6:13 pm

What I want to know is what trade pays 24 year old j men 80 to 100 per year??

HVAC

#11 Nemesis on 03.21.16 at 6:14 pm

…”and relish the freedom, mobility and spirit of your youth.” – HonGT

#TheNew’Emancipated’…

[VancouverSun] – Blame politicians for Metro Vancouver’s housing price crisis: Affordability crunch is ‘collateral damage’ of economic stimulus measures, says UBC study

…”VANCOUVER — Canadian politicians, keen to stimulate B.C.’s economy, are responsible for creating the conditions that have lead [sic] to Metro Vancouver’s housing affordability crisis, according to a new study…

…The inflated housing prices that have resulted in large part from new East Asian wealth are especially devastating for young and middle-aged Metro Vancouverites, Ley said in a recent talk sponsored by City in Focus.

A study by SFU researcher Andy Yan found that Metro’s university-educated adults earn the lowest wages on average in Canada’s 10 largest cities, Ley said. Many are “disillusioned” and leaving the city.”…

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/blame+politicians+metro+vancouver+housing+price+crisis/11797902/story.html?__lsa=fcde-9de1

#BonusMobilityTrack,Or… #[email protected]

https://youtu.be/Mc7qmE5CiuY

#12 Millmech on 03.21.16 at 6:23 pm

#4 Dave
Usually any of the “industrial ones”,usually $38+/hr plus overtime.

#13 MGTOW on 03.21.16 at 6:31 pm

I sure hope Steve’s new girlfriend is hot because this is going to cost him a lot of money, especially if he already has kids with the ex.

The best age to get divorced with kids is never. But if you must the best age is less than 30 so you have some years to rebuild after the kids are grown and before retirement. The second best time to divorce is after the kids have grown, but it’s still going to seriously degrade your lifestyle. Oh and never divorce a stay at home mom it’s suicide.

#4 Dave

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/lists-and-rankings/best-jobs/2014-skilled-trades-jobs-top-10/

If he’s an operator or an electrician and works overtime frequently Sebastian could get to $80g pretty easy, $100g was probably an exaggeration. People tend to do that.

#14 Metaxa on 03.21.16 at 6:32 pm

I’ve always assumed you, Garth, gave away the general stuff but sold the detail.

Do these folks asking for details ever offer to pay you?

#4 Dave:
Plenty of trades pay that well and better. Those vans full of Shaw and/or Telus installers running about? Those guys can easily make 6 figures.
Being a courier in a largish downtown route can get you there as well. Gross, not net tho.

I know a house painter who has three employees, all of whom make large incomes yearly although not 6 figures all the time.

The electrician I use only works 7-8 months of the year and he makes high 5 figures.

This list could go on and on…use Google and find out what a sawyer in a shingle mill makes.

Most of those guys run under the philosophy of “It is better to be rich than appear to be rich.”

#15 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 03.21.16 at 6:37 pm

#1 Sickening Truth on 03.21.16 at 5:37 pm

Sickening Lie.

#16 james on 03.21.16 at 6:45 pm

“Assuming a buy and hold strategy, I don’t think it would be the worst possible thing”

Ah, so that’s our metric. The distance of our likely outcome from the worst possible outcome.

I suppose a meteorite hit or zombie outbreak would be worse than buying a property in Vancouver. I’m not sure that is a useful strategy.

I rather think ‘buy low sell high’ is a better guide.

And Garth is right. At that age, with that income, he has something that is priceless: the ability to attract hordes of 18-21 year old women without looking like a creep. Most men can only dream. Save your money, date up a storm and take lots of photos for when you are 40 and saddled with more responsibility.

#17 wallflower on 03.21.16 at 6:49 pm

What would be most interesting is to reveal the extent of illegal activity around housing in YVR.
I received this from the City people today
“Licensing a residence for a short-term rental (less than 30 days) for an Air BnB is not permitted unless the property is a hotel or bed and breakfast.”

Have you SEEN the number of airbnb rentals listed?

Check out wimdu. And these are what is easily viewable. What about all those longer-term rental rooms and basements for which people collect unreported revenue? Holy Schmack. Gotta be epic $$$$$ in this “underground housing” economy.

#18 Give us this Blog our daily Garth on 03.21.16 at 6:51 pm

Someone switched the books. But good one.

I keep saying Trump doesn’t stand a chance. However, if he somehow pulls it off we are all in big trouble.

#19 tundra pete on 03.21.16 at 6:52 pm

#4 Dave.

As a Plumber/Gasfitter I was making far more than that years ago and I haven’t even started bragging yet.

I have 3 sons and a daughter. Do you think I could convince any of them to go into the trades? Not a chance. My daughter has done the best, she is a nurse. The boys are still stocking shelves and thinking x-box is gonna make them rich.

#20 james on 03.21.16 at 6:54 pm

#2 “My European friends couldn’t stop making condescending comments about bad Canadian food and how gauche Canadians are as we drove back to Seattle.”

What, on a sample size of one outing? That says little for the intelligence of your friends.

Vancouver and Toronto have excellent food. Far superior to what we have here in Seattle.

As for gauche Canadians, there is a large grain of truth in that comment. Vancouverites in particular have nothing to talk about apart from real estate.

PS: Might want to point out to the Europeans that their little paradise isn’t exactly a great place to be a woman, homosexual (etc) these days.

#21 lulu on 03.21.16 at 6:57 pm

Garth, this question is from my grams, they have a 40k TFSA and don’t know what to do, they want to invest it with steady growth yet won’t lose out the principle, they want to do this for the grandkid college fund, Suggestion?

#22 Rainclouds on 03.21.16 at 6:58 pm

#2 “My European friends couldn’t stop making condescending comments about bad Canadian food and how gauche Canadians are as we drove back to Seattle. I don’t think I can go to Van anymore, it is too embarrassing.”

Wow! I have never witnessed idiotic commentary or bad food in Europe or USA.
News Flash, nobody give a shit what you or your whiney continental friends think

P.S. tourism record last year and expect more for 2016. You wont be missed……….

#23 not 1st on 03.21.16 at 7:06 pm

So, he’s left his wife, taken up with another woman, started a second family,…

—-

Doesn’t sound like it was in that order…

#24 typical boomer parents.... on 03.21.16 at 7:08 pm

#16 tundra pete on 03.21.16 at 6:52 pm

As a Plumber/Gasfitter I was making far more than that years ago and I haven’t even started bragging yet.

I have 3 sons and a daughter. Do you think I could convince any of them to go into the trades? Not a chance. My daughter has done the best, she is a nurse. The boys are still stocking shelves and thinking x-box is gonna make them rich.
________________________________________

Plot Twist: tundra pete’s boys are 14 & 16 years old.

#25 Yuus bin Haad on 03.21.16 at 7:11 pm

Hi Garth. I’m 42, live in my parents basement, and all I can afford to eat every day is Kraft Dinner. Should I go out and get a burger or something?

#26 Chris on 03.21.16 at 7:12 pm

Cannot understand why housing price in GTA and Vancouver are going crazy? Imgaine US is reduced down to New York and San Francisco. That is what happens when you only have two desireable big metropolitan areas to live in and you bring in 200k-300k new immigrants every uearm they are not going to peterborough or sudbury. They will almost 100% end up in GTA or Vancouver. So buy a house and live in it and be done with it. This does not mean there is no end to the increase. At some point, Canada is going to lose its competitiveness due to its housing cost. Currently, Australia is even worse I hear.

#27 not 1st on 03.21.16 at 7:14 pm

Garth if T2 starts sprinkling around $180 billion in infrastructure funds, RE sure isnt going to go down.

And the TSX is likely to jump 5000 points because of it too.

Have you thought this through?

Yes. Deficits today mean taxes tomorrow. And the infrastructure commitment was factored into the TSX a while back. — Garth

#28 Bottoms_Up on 03.21.16 at 7:14 pm

#8 Peter on 03.21.16 at 6:07 pm
———————
Give her some money. Better yet, give her the money plus sign a purchase agreement on her house on a negotiated price that takes into account the money you are giving her. Interesting question, how far in the future can the closing date be on a purchase agreement? Is there a limit?

#29 Walmart of Sadkatoon on 03.21.16 at 7:24 pm

#204 Sheane Wallace on 03.21.16 at 10:12 am

wow toronto real estate prices are truly insane. glad I don’t live there no more. $1 million for a staircase filled matchbox w no land. there’s no redemption for ppl in that city

#30 Prairie Oysters for All on 03.21.16 at 7:25 pm

#23 not 1st on 03.21.16 at 7:06 pm

So, he’s left his wife, taken up with another woman, started a second family,…

—-

Doesn’t sound like it was in that order…

Minor details!

#31 mishuko on 03.21.16 at 7:26 pm

So another question of your rule of 90… I’m 27 (a few months shy of 28) so let’s say 62% of my NW should be in real estate at most based on your general rule of thumb… so…

Would REIT etf’s count toward that or are you talking about a personal real estate like a condo/town/cardboard box type thing?

Physical real estate only. REITs are financial assets. — Garth

#32 Damifino on 03.21.16 at 7:28 pm

#8 Peter

Peter… I’m retired and live in downtown Vancouver. I live off a healthy investment income plus CPP and OAP. Rent is $2800. Place is very comfortable. You don’t get much for $1700/mo in this town. That can color your thinking when mulling over the idea of purchasing.

With a combined income of $200K you should easily be able to afford $3200/mo. That will get you something well maintained and professionally managed. It will be comfortable with plenty of potential for children when they arrive.

Don’t monkey around pouring money into a house that you might not even be living in for ten years if at all. Even if it is your mother’s place and even if you are the greatest mutual fans. Things can and do change. Fast.

Start living at a comfort level commensurate with your income then start saving and investing the rest. Get help with that. Top quality fee-based help.

PS: Get your mother to sell now too. Don’t try building comfort unless you yourself are a professional contractor with tons of experience and sub trade contacts! It’s way more expensive than you can imagine. Rent it.

#33 sockeye sam on 03.21.16 at 7:29 pm

Comparing Trump to Hitler? So sad! Anybody that campaigns on protecting it’s citizens jobs would have my vote. Try phoning TELUS and ask to speak to an agent in Canada. I can’t even understand them telling me, “we don’t have anyone in Canada”.I used to feel sorry for those people I’d pick up at the Telus head office on Kingway when they would tell me they had two weeks left before they were canned.”Make Canada great again”.Tear up the trade agreements!

#34 conan on 03.21.16 at 7:40 pm

Warning!!!

Do not drink milk and read following sentence at the same time.

“Which head came up with this plan?”

#35 Grey Dog on 03.21.16 at 7:40 pm

Is defined benefit pension number included in net worth when abiding by your rule of 90?

Of course not. — Garth

#36 Smoking Man on 03.21.16 at 7:45 pm

Wow this extend road trip is costing a fortune
I now find myself in the center suite in Niagarafalls NY.

Avoiding going home. Fifty cigarette butts on the lawn need picked up.

At any rate I watched alot of tv usa politics. For you philosophy junkies I figure out the big picture on this trip.

People that hate see themselves as victims.
People that love see themselves as creators.

That’s it. See a hater you know why. See a lover. Thet create things.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics.

Now we’re are the keys to the mini bar.

#37 wallflower on 03.21.16 at 7:47 pm

#19 tundra pete on 03.21.16 at 6:52 pm
#4 Dave.

As a Plumber/Gasfitter I was making far more than that years ago and I haven’t even started bragging yet.

I have 3 sons and a daughter. Do you think I could convince any of them to go into the trades? Not a chance. My daughter has done the best, she is a nurse. The boys are still stocking shelves and thinking x-box is gonna make them rich.
=======

My niece is 25. Shortly, she will be a mill wright. Employable globally.

For those who can get their heads of their digital media and gaming, there is enormous opportunity out there.

#38 Daisy Mae on 03.21.16 at 7:48 pm

“So, he’s left his wife, taken up with another woman, started a second family, amassed few assets, and has no agreement to formalize the separation or protect his position. Let’s have a moment of silence for the squishable Squamish Stevo.”

*****************

What a stupid bugger…..

#39 New Garth Fan on 03.21.16 at 7:52 pm

One more quick clarification on the rule of 90, if you have the patience for it.
Would you include the commuted value of a defined benefit pension in the net worth calculation?

Not unless it’s sitting in your investment account. — Garth

#40 joblo on 03.21.16 at 7:53 pm

I miss lala

#41 Grey Dog on 03.21.16 at 8:01 pm

Stevo S l o w D o w n…consciously plan your next move/s.

Seb, get a library card, start reading investment books, successful living within your means, personally, I think once you,ve got the investment lessons learned, I kinda think you Grandfather would love to spend some time with you sharing his wisdom, we all need mentors, yours is in the family. Learn the life lesson from Stevo tonight.

#42 Ace Goodheart on 03.21.16 at 8:03 pm

RE: Squishable Squamish Stevo: This is not going to end well, not well at all.

RE: Rule of 90 and: “Bottom line: every mortgage payment makes you more invested in one asset. A better strategy: sell, invest the proceeds to pay your rent, and avoid what’s coming.”

I still say this philosophy is nuts. Why would you rent when a house that you own costs peanuts to live in? I think people who are planning on selling their houses to follow the “rule of 90” need to have a serious discussion about what they figure their expenses will actually be. Because you can live in a paid for house in Toronto for under 10K per year (I do it for around 5k per year). If you are paying 5K per year to live in your house, then even if you are a couple of pensioners making CPP and OAS, you still come out ahead of someone with investments who is renting.

And bottom line is, if you own the house, you are not subject to the economic forces that can wipe out investments and destroy your net worth. A recession (and even a depression) does not wipe out a house. It’s still there, with bedrooms you can sleep in, a kitchen you can cook in, a living room for you to put your favourite chair in. It doesn’t disappear when it’s value is cut in half. It is still there.

Your rental unit WILL disappear when the value of your investments is cut in half.

Just more fairy dust for children, that is all that this is. Pixies and make believe.

If you want a place to live, that is guaranteed and that you know will always be there for you, then you need to own a piece of land and the building on it. There is no substitute.

Nobody lives in a paid-off house for $5,000 a year. You are ascribing no value to your equity or its ability to generate income. Rookie mistake. — Garth

#43 Bram on 03.21.16 at 8:03 pm

#34 wallflower on 03.21.16 at 7:47 pm
My niece is 25. Shortly, she will be a mill wright. Employable globally.

Yes, but I think Canada (and maybe US) are the only countries with super-protected trades.
This increases their wages.
So abroad, their income may be far less.

Here in Vancouver, I’m not allowed to do anything myself to my own home.

Heck, I could not even apply for an electrical inspection, because only licensed electricians are allowed to order inspections with the city of Vancouver. We’re not even talking actual electrical work here, but just ordering inspection services from the city. Even paperwork handling is a protected skill here.

If you monopolize trades as badly as we do here, the wages sky-rocket.
I doubt an electrician in China costs an arm and a leg to employ.
Government regulations and unions make wages go up a lot.

Bram

#44 TurnerNation on 03.21.16 at 8:05 pm

Someone pointed out they only hold this Earthhour brainwashing event on Saturday nights – to cut into our leisure time. Example given was, would they shut down a Leafs game for an hour at night? Hell no, Sports – owned by elites – is hugely profitable to them.

We are in an era of unlimited technology: newish Wi-fi is basically free in public places. GPS (owned by US military) is Free. Think about that for a min.

But the *150 year old technology* of electricity? Nope.
With easy generation via nuclear, sun, wind and tidal bore? Or even wireless transmission? Nope the elites won’t let us have that technology. A scientific dark ages. Can you think of any other old ancient technology costing that much? Why.

We get free wifi and GPS to track us on our “smart” phones and in cars; but we get “smart” hydro meters, highest fees in the world, and overpaid Crown electricity corps.

We’ve living the dark ages ruled by feudal elites. Back to work on the tax slave farm:

“Toronto Hydro says equivalent of 36000 homes off the grid for Saturday night
CBC.ca – 20 hours ago
A lot of people across Ontario heeded the Earth Hour call and turned off lights between 8:30 and 9:30 p.m. on Saturday night. Canada joins countries around the world in turning off the lights.”

#45 Julia on 03.21.16 at 8:13 pm

“Is defined benefit pension number included in net worth when abiding by your rule of 90?

Of course not. — Garth”

Can you explain why it wouldn’t be included? I can contribute very little to RRSPs because of my DB pension. My DB pension has a cash value in the event I leave my employer.

Then when it is in your possession, include it. Not before. — Garth

#46 wallflower on 03.21.16 at 8:15 pm

#43 Bram on 03.21.16 at 8:03 pm
#34 wallflower on 03.21.16 at 7:47 pm
My niece is 25. Shortly, she will be a mill wright. Employable globally.

Yes, but I think Canada (and maybe US) are the only countries with super-protected trades.
This increases their wages.
So abroad, their income may be far less.

Here in Vancouver, I’m not allowed to do anything myself to my own home.
========

My other mill wright relative earns US$150,000 per annum on contracts in countries around the world. Doing better than here because it’s US$$$$$$.

#47 Ace Goodheart on 03.21.16 at 8:20 pm

Oh and don’t tell me that ETFs and mutual funds can weather recessions. ETFs and mutual funds get slaughtered in recessions the same as house prices do.

Stock markets, and the funds that feed them, work on the “bigger idiot” theory and “pump and dump”. Any stock that has been successfully listed, has a “list value” even if the company has no employees, earns nothing per year and hasn’t been active for decades. People still trade the stock for pennies (hence the “penny stock” strike it rich folks). Knowing this, wise investors in stock markets (which by the way, are not fund managers with their large, hard to trade holdings, but small folks like you and me), look for stocks that are “on sale”.

Most people trade on the concept that if everyone else is buying it, they should too. Those of us who make money in the stock market know that sooner or later you reach the “head idiot” and the price goes back down (once the “pump and dump” is expired).

You are always trading into a web of insiders busily cashing in their earned options. Buying a stock is really just paying the corporate folks for their work (they are selling it to you for more than they got it for through their options).

So you buy distressed, good companies on sale, and then hold onto them. The insiders aren’t trading their options (because their shares are not worth anything) and you are actually getting the company for close to what it’s worth.

But even with this method (which ETFs and mutual funds can’t use, due to the large volumes they must carry and the fact that they have to keep investing all of the time, regardless of whether it is a good time), you still are subject to market forces which will repeatedly trash your investment, its dividends, its distributions, its value. Remember, if you were smart, you bought all of your stocks when they were being trashed by market forces.

So your investments are going to have unstable values and unstable payouts.

Why would you want to live in a house which will fall down and be unlivable every ten years or so? That is exactly what will happen to your investments.

Better to have a building you can live in, with land that you own.

If you want to have additional income through investments, go ahead. But never, ever, ever, ever sell a paid for house to invest the money. That is nuts.

I’d love to respond, but have no idea where to begin. You need a serious education, but I sense it would fall on deaf ears. — Garth

#48 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 03.21.16 at 8:21 pm

Garth if T2 starts sprinkling around $180 billion in infrastructure funds, RE sure isnt going to go down.

And the TSX is likely to jump 5000 points because of it too.

Have you thought this through?

Yes. Deficits today mean taxes tomorrow. And the infrastructure commitment was factored into the TSX a while back. — Garth
____________________________________________

We do not know the impact, so it is not factored in quite yet. Even for Keynesians, there is good infrastructure spending and bad. Taxes will be collected from all the economic activity generated, and the debt will be paid in future taxes. However, future productivity and benefits could result from smart spending.

Canada is unique in its handoff from Monetary policy (which has failed – proof here http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc160321.htm) to Fiscal policy.

Alas, governments suck at spending wisely on infrastructure, education etc…

#49 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 03.21.16 at 8:28 pm

#42 Ace Goodheart on 03.21.16 at 8:03 pm

I think my house taxes are more than 10K per year and rising. Luckily, I am not retired, cause then in your scenario I would need 2 million bucks earning 1%, to generate 10K after tax.

If house prices rise further, its cat food for the retirees as their property taxes take an ever bigger bite that OAS and CPP cannot cover.

#50 Femdom Fist on 03.21.16 at 8:33 pm

Hmm, how does one go about relishing the ‘spirit’ of their youth?

Start with not taking a mortgage. — Garth

#51 Ace Goodheart on 03.21.16 at 8:35 pm

RE: “Nobody lives in a paid-off house for $5,000 a year. You are ascribing no value to your equity or its ability to generate income. Rookie mistake. — Garth”

I do.

And yes, I ascribe no value whatsoever to the “equity” in my house. I have no clear idea what it’s worth (though I believe the old axiom is “it’s only worth what someone will pay for it”). I don’t care. It keeps me dry when it rains, warm in the winter, cool in the summer, and happy all of the time. If it’s worth a dollar, then that’s fine. A million dollars, that’s fine too. I don’t care. It’s worth a place to live for me, and I don’t have to worry about keeping up with rental payments, or investments, or anything like that.

It is unfortunate how few people ever actually experience the freedom that comes from owing a house outright. Once you have experienced it, it is not something you give up willingly.

Sounds like you need to get out more. A building is not the goal of life. — Garth

#52 Smoking Man on 03.21.16 at 8:40 pm

The 4 shades of Trump. You saw shade 3 tonight at AIPAC. He killed it. Obviously good advisory team. The 4th shade is for Hillary.

#53 Ace Goodheart on 03.21.16 at 8:41 pm

RE: #47 Rock Beats Paper: That’s why you need to live in a big city like Toronto. We have reasonable property taxes.

Little places, always seem to have some crazy tax scheme which makes houses unaffordable.

And yes, I agree I am worried about this silly housing bubble that is threatening to increase my property taxes.

Fortunately Garth thinks it’s going to burst soon. And I think he’s right.

Here’s to low house prices, and cheap property taxes! Hipsters be damned.

#54 BG on 03.21.16 at 8:42 pm

Have you guys seen the new message at mls.ca?
They’re basically not pretending anymore to provide accurate data.

“MLS® Systems are cooperative selling systems operated by real estate Boards and Associations in Canada. They are accessible to REALTOR® Members of those Boards and Associations […]”

” It is important to note that REALTOR.ca is not an MLS® System. It is an advertising website that The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) created to give REALTORS® across Canada greater listing exposure to a national and international audience.”

#55 Tim on 03.21.16 at 8:45 pm

DELETED (anti-Asian)

#56 Tim on 03.21.16 at 8:48 pm

RE #19 tundra pete”

Some of us don’t want to fix toilets all day. There is a reason trades pay well.

#57 Damifino on 03.21.16 at 8:52 pm

#51 Ace Goodheart

“It is unfortunate how few people ever actually experience the freedom that comes from owing a house outright. Once you have experienced it, it is not something you give up willingly.”

You are so wrong, Ace. I lived in a paid off house for fifteen years and I let it go in a heartbeat. The freedom came after I sold. I still have every scrap of capital from the sale and more. I resurrected a ton of dead capital and put it to work. I’ve never looked back.

#58 Entrepreneur on 03.21.16 at 8:53 pm

Stephen’s story is probably typical today: leave marriage, find a girlfriend, pregnant all before financial settlement. What a muddle mess, financially and emotionally. Know too many people that did this throughout our marriage, and you know what, it does not get better (there are exceptions). Hope you stay with this partner, Stephen, as that baby needs a dad (hope you had no kids from the last marriage) and marriage has its up downs/ups.

#4 Dave…a journeyman electrician for one but have to travel to job.

As for the 23 living at home…enjoy life a little, learn about investing but don’t rush.

I still don’t hear too much of the TPP from T2. Oh, he was standing beside Tom Mulcair, NDP before the election like he was really concerned but obviously a phoney. Wonder if the First Nation got their water yet and what about that road!?! The First Nation should have voted for the NDP and got the job done.

#59 Smoking Man on 03.21.16 at 8:54 pm

Another amazing observational moment.

On twitter the biggest critical opinions of Trump are attractively challenged fowl mouth females.

The ones supporting him. Hot stunning babes.

I give you.

Victims vs Creators.

#60 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 03.21.16 at 8:57 pm

#51 Ace Goodheart on 03.21.16 at 8:35 pm

For you, your house will be worth what the government states is its market value, and then they will tax you accordingly. I assume you have a brand new roof and furnace.

You are a great example of math illiteracy that I can show my 12 year daughter.

#61 betamax on 03.21.16 at 8:59 pm

“I’m a 38 year old guy with a now estranged wife and pregnant girlfriend.”

So you’ve really thought it through, then.

“We have a variety of debts, loans, lines of credit and credit cards that amount to approximately 87k”

OMFG how do people live like this?

Stop trusting your own judgment, Steve. You obviously don’t have a clue.

#62 Linda on 03.21.16 at 9:01 pm

Have to say, Squamish Steve (if for real) has issues way beyond what to do with the assets as divorce looms over his hapless self. I’d feel for the girlfriend, but presumably she entered the relationship knowing the score. If he has somehow kept her from knowing he has a current wife…. Not going to end well. Have to say, I’ve never understood why anyone would enter into a relationship with someone who already has a partner. The one thing you know for sure about them is, they will cheat on their partner.

#63 Retired Boomer WI on 03.21.16 at 9:05 pm

Due to circumstances beyond our control tonight’s opinion has been delayed until further notice.

Continue to spend beyond your means, and see if digging out the bottom reduces the size of your fiscal hole.

If so, buy another home, or your first if you qualify either through regular channels, or a sleazy mortgage broker who never has to account for lack of repayment. That’s why you have tax payer’s in Canada, to support those refuse to live modest, and support themselves.

Tomorrow’s opinion will be on the humbleness of one Donald T. Rump, American for president, and his VP Hillary.

Thanks for watching the Delusional Broadcasting Network.

#64 hope & ruin on 03.21.16 at 9:06 pm

#47 Ace Goodheart on 03.21.16 at 8:20 pm
Oh and don’t tell me that ETFs and mutual funds can weather recessions. ETFs and mutual funds get slaughtered in recessions the same as house prices do.

Stock markets, and the funds that feed them, work on the “bigger idiot” theory and “pump and dump”. Any stock that has been successfully listed, has a “list value” even if the company has no employees, earns nothing per year and hasn’t been active for decades. People still trade the stock for pennies (hence the “penny stock” strike it rich folks). Knowing this, wise investors in stock markets (which by the way, are not fund managers with their large, hard to trade holdings, but small folks like you and me), look for stocks that are “on sale”.

Most people trade on the concept that if everyone else is buying it, they should too. Those of us who make money in the stock market know that sooner or later you reach the “head idiot” and the price goes back down (once the “pump and dump” is expired).

You are always trading into a web of insiders busily cashing in their earned options. Buying a stock is really just paying the corporate folks for their work (they are selling it to you for more than they got it for through their options).

So you buy distressed, good companies on sale, and then hold onto them. The insiders aren’t trading their options (because their shares are not worth anything) and you are actually getting the company for close to what it’s worth.

But even with this method (which ETFs and mutual funds can’t use, due to the large volumes they must carry and the fact that they have to keep investing all of the time, regardless of whether it is a good time), you still are subject to market forces which will repeatedly trash your investment, its dividends, its distributions, its value. Remember, if you were smart, you bought all of your stocks when they were being trashed by market forces.
____________________________________

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKjxFJfcrcA

#65 Jfish on 03.21.16 at 9:06 pm

So please, tell me again how the good old US of A is doing.Housing Crash?: U.S. Existing Home Sales Fall By The Most In Six Years
By Michael Snyder, on March 21st, 2016. Site:http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/housing-crash-u-s-existing-home-sales-fall-by-the-most-in-six-years

#66 bdy sktrn builder bob on 03.21.16 at 9:08 pm

Here in Vancouver, I’m not allowed to do anything myself to my own home.

Heck, I could not even apply for an electrical inspection…

—————-
so don’t ask.

i have done extensive elec (entire new kitchen/bath wiring plus more), plumbing, gas fireplace install 2x (did get a guy to run the new line-no inspection), woodstove install, doors windows , gutted rooms, new big decks, you name it.

[email protected] the city , it’s my house. shove the permits up you know where.

#67 Smoking Man on 03.21.16 at 9:10 pm

There was a reporter at the star. Can’t remember her name.

She’s basically saying Canada is heading for the smart economy. Tough shit for the Un schooled rough necks in Alberta. Ok bimbo. What of there families, pitty you are a coward with no comment section.

Bet she’s popular by the water cooler at the star.
Their buddies at Gawker just got slammed down by Hulk hogan to the tune 140 million.

It’s a pity rob ford won’t be around to watch em go bunkrupt . Rob is now in palatine care. I’m not religious but am praying for him every few minutes, he was a creator.

But Rob I’ll be at your funreal. And guarantee if I recognize any one of those star whores that stocked you on your driveway, we’re having words.

#68 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.21.16 at 9:17 pm

My niece is 25. Shortly, she will be a mill wright. Employable globally.

For those who can get their heads of their digital media and gaming, there is enormous opportunity out there.

totally agree. for some people, opportunity is everywhere and 6 figures in their 20s is just the start. for others, they can’t get a job with 2 professional tech degrees in a booming sector. life skills. some have it. others don’t.

#69 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.21.16 at 9:21 pm

“It is unfortunate how few people ever actually experience the freedom that comes from owing a house outright. Once you have experienced it, it is not something you give up willingly.”

that’s stupid thinking. freedom doesn’t come from a primary residence. and I’m saying this from the perspective of someone who sold their anchor of a primary residence to be able to do whatever I want anywhere I want

#70 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.21.16 at 9:28 pm

#65 Jfish on 03.21.16 at 9:06 pm

nice irrelevant doomer site. US still booming.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-homebuilding-trends-are-having-a-major-impact-on-the-us-economy-2016-03-21

you don’t have to read it if it makes u cry lol

sorry, thanks for playing rofl

#71 Good paying jobs on 03.21.16 at 9:30 pm

21st century, G7 country – the good paying jobs: HVAC, electrician and similar trades… WTF?!

Points to low-tech, unimaginative economy, professions protected by useless “taxi license”-like laws, regulation.

By the way, they are al related to the broader constuction/housing industry.

I would say all Canadian political parties are incompetent with zero vision.

Perfect match to create, fuel “house lust” for the masses.
Garth may chastise the commons as much as he wants, he sure misses the bigger macro-economic picture.

Well, that’s the limitation of the small c conservative ideology.

#72 BK on 03.21.16 at 9:32 pm

Garth, could you please dedicate a post to the millenials/early genX’s of Vancouver.

There are many things going on in Van that don’t apply to the rest of the nation (including Toronto)

A great number of younger Vancouverites support your blog and would love to hear what you have to say.

If you were in your younger years in Vancouver, what would you do?

Thanks

#73 the creator Ford family on 03.21.16 at 9:47 pm

#67 Smoking Man
Rob is now in palatine care. I’m not religious but am praying for him every few minutes, he was a creator.

Wishing Rob Ford well and speedy, full recovery.

Not sure though what makes in the alien world a “creator”.

Just to make sure, I am not missing something, I double-checked…

http://torontolife.com/city/rob-ford-family-tree/

Creator sounds like a huge word, even on the small Earth…

#74 Tony on 03.21.16 at 9:53 pm

Re: #4 Dave on 03.21.16 at 5:49 pm

Electrician with some overtime.

#75 Thule on 03.21.16 at 9:54 pm

Pathcontrolmonk and James I will settle this. Seattle kicks the f&c* out of Van in all ways including the food scene. Our food scene in Vancouver receives the accolades it does because it doesn’t suck as badly as the rest of Canada’s. Vancouver’s food is great. Seattle’s is much better. All we talk about here in Van is RE 24/7. It is a sad state of affairs. Go to Seattle and they talk sports, what they did over the weekend, new business coming into their city, changing politics, education, and so on. Seattle is more dynamic and that is impossible to refute. Seattle is also better educated which is probably why they do not talk RE. The two cities are constantly compared when they should not. It is like comparing a diamond to a cubic zirconia. Seattle is a shining diamond and Vancouver is the CZ. We try very hard in Vancouver to be noticed for everything we are not nor will ever be. The reason we have developed a reputation as a “surface city” is because our city is totally surface. There is really nothing going on here. Go to Seattle for a day and you will find most items of consideration are generally better if not much better and more interesting. They do need a new waterfront but they are working on it and the plan are leaving us in the dust. Granville Island? Meh. Try Pike Place for a day and you will walk away with a better understanding of our neurotic complex. Our neighbour to the South will continue to keep the crown as the Jewel of the PNW. Think it over and ask yourself why we never stop comparing our city to Seattle. The reason is obvious. We have managed to create segregated ghettos of demographics while they’ve managed to create a better sense of community and belonging.

#76 Boaty McBoatface on 03.21.16 at 9:54 pm

No LNG for BC. No pipelines for Alberta plus rising unemployment. Brad Wall asking for money back from equalization. Manitoba has first nations crisis. Ontario hasn’t balanced a budget in years. Bombardier asking for money. Hospitals out east desperately need to be upgraded. All while the feds are already swimming in red ink.

And people still think that Canadian real estate is special?

#77 Jfish on 03.21.16 at 10:02 pm

Nice handle there Walfart of Sadsack. Guess facts of a situation are irrelevant to the irrelevant.

#78 Smoking Man on 03.21.16 at 10:16 pm

#76 Boaty McBoatface on 03.21.16 at 9:54 pm
No LNG for BC. No pipelines for Alberta plus rising unemployment. Brad Wall asking for money back from equalization. Manitoba has first nations crisis. Ontario hasn’t balanced a budget in years. Bombardier asking for money. Hospitals out east desperately need to be upgraded. All while the feds are already swimming in red ink.

And people still think that Canadian real estate is special?
.

T2 is a two year old pilot trying to land a broken 747 on the short island airport runways , distracted with his adoring passengers, he leaves to cockpit to have selfies with them.

Don’t worry this plane will land itself.

#79 Millmech on 03.21.16 at 10:23 pm

#46 Wallflower
Your correct,in 1994 did a job in the southern states,grossed $33,000 for a months work as a millwright.Lots of good pay in Africa,Arab States as well.

#80 pulling an Uber on electrician trade on 03.21.16 at 10:24 pm

74 Tony on 03.21.16 at 9:53 pm

Re: #4 Dave on 03.21.16 at 5:49 pm

Electrician with some overtime.

—-

I can create the technology that can pull an Uber on the electrician trade.

Any investor interest?

#81 Smoking Man on 03.21.16 at 10:26 pm

#73 the creator Ford family on 03.21.16 at 9:47 pm
#67 Smoking Man
Rob is now in palatine care. I’m not religious but am praying for him every few minutes, he was a creator.

Wishing Rob Ford well and speedy, full recovery.

Not sure though what makes in the alien world a “creator”.

Just to make sure, I am not missing something, I double-checked…

http://torontolife.com/city/rob-ford-family-tree/

Creator sounds like a huge word, even on the small Earth…

…..

Chirping the guy on his death bed. Lefties is all I’m saying.

#82 bad internet advice guy on 03.21.16 at 10:28 pm

#72 BK on 03.21.16 at 9:32 pm

A great number of younger Vancouverites support your blog and would love to hear what you have to say.

If you were in your younger years in Vancouver, what would you do?
=================

there’s this new invention called an ‘airplane’. get on one and travel somewhere sane and live there for a few years. on the timespan of 10 years something will happen either vancouver gets annexed by china (they’re building an island in the south china sea) or prices correct. either way it’ll take a while for sanity to be restored why hang around? you must like watching car crashes.

if you’re a reasonably smart person which is not a good assumption when reading the comments at this blog……what the hell is TurnerNation rambling about tonight? what a dumbass……..then use your intelligence and figure out if it’s a good idea to stay somewhere as insane as vancouver.

what do you want garth to tell you? he already told you the whole goddamn thing is nutz. do you want a trophy? this shit is bananas. b.a.n.a.n.a.s. figure something out. go somewhere its a big ass earth. take a shot. if you land flat on your face you’ll be young enough to recover. do you think buying a house now in the peak of the insanity is safer? you know what. buy the house. that’s definitely the safest thing you can do. that could never end badly. ever.

#83 Bram on 03.21.16 at 10:29 pm

#66 bdy sktrn builder bob on 03.21.16 at 9:08 pm
so don’t ask.

I was naive. I got a letter from the city asking to inspect my house, built one year earlier.
I thought inspections couldn’t hurt: the more the better? (naive new immigrant here.)

However, I had installed an Ikea kitchen in my basement, as the builder had left the kitchen room empty.
Ikea is pretty cheap: Three grand of materials and my own labour.

Inspector tells me I now own an illegal basement.
I tried to get it legalized, but could not, due to width of walkway next to house.

The city made me remove my kitchen, and renew permits.

If I had only known, I would NEVER have let them in my house.
That inspection was purely to see if I had added kitchen to my basement or garage.
The letter did not state the purpose of the inspection. I felt misled.
Note: the fact that I use this basement for visiting family only, did not help: kitchen had to be removed.

I wonder what would have happened if I had never let them into my house.
Meanwhile, my neighbour lets a 100yr old house rot away with collapsing shed, and the city does nothing.

Bram (Not a fan of this random Nanny-style governance by Vancouver.)

#84 Mark on 03.21.16 at 10:34 pm

“But the *150 year old technology* of electricity? Nope.
With easy generation via nuclear, sun, wind and tidal bore? Or even wireless transmission? Nope the elites won’t let us have that technology. A scientific dark ages. Can you think of any other old ancient technology costing that much? Why.”

You can have all those technologies you want. Nobody’s stopping their development. But capital costs are enormous. We have cheaper alternatives at the moment. We are likely to have cheaper alternatives for the considerable future. There is no elite conspiracy.

If you were in your younger years in Vancouver, what would you do?

Rent, and use your money to invest in assets and asset classes with inverse correlation to Vancouver RE. If paying rent and having some savings is a problem on what you can earn, then probably looking elsewhere would be a good idea.

If previous RE collapses in Canada are any indication, a mere downpayment invested in such assets today, will buy you a paid-off house a decade in the future.

for others, they can’t get a job with 2 professional tech degrees in a booming sector.

There are almost no booming tech sectors in Canada or the US, and haven’t been for many years. Stop talking out of your arse. Most of us can see right through your trolling.

#85 Toronto Dweller on 03.21.16 at 10:44 pm

I promise I come here for my dose of doom and gloom porn you all guys spit out. Live a little, leave our nice Canada for a while and see how the other world lives. There is so much land in his country to build and you all want to live in Vancouver and Toronto, just dumb and naive.

#86 the creator Ford family on 03.21.16 at 10:45 pm

#81 Smoking Man

Chirping the guy on his death bed. Lefties is all I’m saying.

Questioning the assessment you brought up.
Pretty provincial labeling for a supposedly un-schooled alien.

#87 Unhinged Loon on 03.21.16 at 10:50 pm

So what again is the problem with Trump?

He’s like a Ross Perot that has a chance of slaying the Hillbeast.

The only grievances I’ve heard so far are about his bellicosity, usually from limp-wristed nu-males and cucks, you know the type, novelty glasses and grotesque facial hair.

#88 Hicksville Alberta on 03.21.16 at 10:50 pm

Been looking at some real estate in the Maritimes because it might be time for a fundamental lifestyle change and maybe the maritimes would be an interesting experience.
The things that seem to stand out to me are the apparent high taxation and the apparent quite severe lack of meaningful private sector employment which means quite a bit of poverty to marginal living for many and thus the difficulty in seeing a lot of younger persons moving to other places because of better living/ earning capacity.
In addition in quite a few places, the property taxes seem often quite high to very high in relation to the market value of a lot of properties. This suggests a real lack of a property tax base in those cases and this can become a self feeding downward spiral in property values over time because of the property tax burden required by the city or municipality to obtain the income they require to operate.
By the time Nothead and the new Federal Government are through with Alberta in four or five years or more, this place will likely be a shell of what it once was and at my age, it ain’t worth hanging around here, so a fundamental change might be refreshing.
Would appreciate anyone’s comments or thoughts on the maritimes because i am really quite attracted to it.

#89 april on 03.21.16 at 10:51 pm

#49 – If i’m correct people over 55 can defer their taxes till the sell or die. Interest is applied but I don’t think it’s alot considering how much houses have risen in price.

#90 Smoking Man on 03.21.16 at 10:54 pm

#84 Mark on 03.21.16 at 10:34 pm

You can’t get a job cause you haven’t figured out the art of bull shit.

I get 300 k gigs easily. Of the 30 skill set requiremens I only have 3 but say I got em all.

With the full knollage that my interviewer don’t have one of them.. He’s got degree of some kind. Which means nothing today. Thats Not true. Your an expert at PC .

Disarmed vs a smoker.

#91 salmon rear end arm on 03.21.16 at 11:04 pm

http://bultaco.com/en/motos
they live. i dont think the Chief would understand

#92 Sue Me on 03.21.16 at 11:15 pm

Does this mean that my investments should have increased along with the rise of real estate? The price I bought real estate at was way less than the value today putting me out of balance for the rule.

#93 Blanche on 03.21.16 at 11:16 pm

#90 Smoking Man on 03.21.16 at 10:54 pm

#84 Mark on 03.21.16 at 10:34 pm

You can’t get a job cause you haven’t figured out the art of bull shit.

I get 300 k gigs easily.
————-
300 k – theres the bs

#94 cto on 03.21.16 at 11:21 pm

#4 dave

Your right! I have a sneaky feeling that an awefull lot of these young fellers seem to feel that they will be judged by the income they declare on here.

Its OK if you don’t make 100 large…it ok….you can be honest, we understand.

#95 Love my Kia on 03.21.16 at 11:24 pm

#59 Smoking Man

Another amazing observational moment.
On twitter the biggest critical opinions of Trump are attractively challenged fowl mouth females.
The ones supporting him. Hot stunning babes.
I give you.

Victims vs Creators.
****************************
‘fowl mouth females’. Well they would be unattractive if they had poultry beaks for a mouth.

#96 Paul on 03.21.16 at 11:37 pm

#2 pathcontrolmonk

Why would you bring out of town guests to Sandbar?

For what it’s worth, my wife’s colleague is retiring and they recently listed their Westside home that they’ve owned for 30 years. Lots of bids over the listed the price.

They negotiated to stay there until December rent free as part of the deal. They have since bought their dream home in Gonzalez Bay, Victoria. Nice spot -and I think they played this as well as it could be played.

I hesitate to share the story because of the nationality of the buyer – but I still think the issue is over-extended Canadians are the big story here. I live in SE Van, Little India area. The Vancouver Special across the street sold a few months back for 1.2. Local teachers. Nice folks – but it’s not hard to discern the feelings of regret when speaking with them.

#97 cramar on 03.22.16 at 12:15 am

#56 Tim on 03.21.16 at 8:48 pm
RE #19 tundra pete”

Some of us don’t want to fix toilets all day. There is a reason trades pay well.

———–

True!

But . . . some of us would rather fix our own toilet than pay an expensive plumber.

#98 Sheane Wallace on 03.22.16 at 12:27 am

Living in denial land:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/regulator-urges-canadian-banks-to-review-oil-and-gas-reserves-1458576613

from WSJ:

Energy loans totaled 49.7 billion Canadian dollars ($38.2 billion) for the country’s six biggest banks during the November-to-January quarter, according to a report by TD Securities Inc. Bank of Nova Scotia, Canada’s third-largest bank by assets, has the biggest direct oil and gas exposure at 3.6% of total loans.

Some analysts are skeptical about the lenders’ reserving practices in part because U.S. banks, including J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Co., have set aside millions more for their reserves as they brace for bigger energy-related losses.

Mr. Rudin declined to say whether Canadian banks are under-reserved compared with their U.S. peers. Nor did he offer an opinion on whether analysts voicing such criticisms were misinformed.

“We have no comment on this specifically, but are confident in our current provisioning practices,” said Ali Duncan Martin, a spokeswoman for Toronto-Dominion Bank, Canada’s No. 2 lender by assets, in an email.

For their part, Canad’s banks did what they also do: float in a sea of denial. A spokeswoman for an industry group representing the lenders, the Canadian Bankers Association, said that Canadian banks aren’t under-reserved. Well, they clearly are, but admitting as much would unleash the market’s realization just how wrong its valuation of Canadian banks has been.

Not only are Canadian banks under-reserved, they are also purposefully opaque to prevent investors from making a comprehensive health assessment:

Canadian banks tend to disclose their energy exposures as a percentage of total loans, but it is difficult to make a direct comparison with U.S. lenders. For instance, Canadian portfolios include large amounts of insured residential loans that are essentially risk-free because they are backstopped by the federal government.

Canada’s banks have also been criticized by analysts for providing varying degrees of detail about their energy lending books—such as the proportion of reserve-based loans and the amount considered “investment grade”—and about their stress-testing of loan portfolios.

“I’m concerned about this,” said James Shanahan, an equity analyst with Edward Jones, in a recent interview. “The banks aren’t really saying a whole lot about the true underlying quality of these [energy] portfolios,” he later added. He’s among the analysts calling on Canadian banks to provide more disclosure on their energy exposure, including how much covenant relief is being provided to distressed borrowers.

That could prove to be a key issue in the spring borrowing base redeterminations. Mr. Rudin declined to specify what role, if any, OSFI would play in those upcoming reviews, saying only banks are expected to have a “robust credit assessment process” that is frequently reviewed by the regulator. Issues, such as covenant relief, are “business decisions” best left to the individual banks, he added.

#99 BK on 03.22.16 at 1:02 am

#82 bad internet advice guy

You should get a trophy for dumbest answer!

Get on a plane and leave! Give me a break!

If you had kids in the same situation as most other people, would you send them off on a plane?

Your blog name serves you well…

#84 Mark

Thank you for your appropriate comment. It is appreciated :)

#100 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.22.16 at 1:17 am

There are almost no booming tech sectors in Canada or the US, and haven’t been for many years.

failure suits u

u have my pity :(

#101 Randy Randerson on 03.22.16 at 1:22 am

What happened to the age old adage “Hope for the best, but plan for the worst”? Seems like everyone is living in unicorn land.

#102 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.22.16 at 1:28 am

There are almost no booming tech sectors in Canada or the US, and haven’t been for many years.

definitely not for u mr 2 degrees but can’t get a job

failure suits u

u have my pity :(

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/03/16/chick-trouble/

#103 Precognition on 03.22.16 at 1:28 am

For anyone who thinking Vancouver real estate is bubbly, just take a look at the stock market, its getting crazy.

Caterpillar’s world sales is crashing, its Year-over-Year sales is the worst since 2010 when the world was still pulling out of the Great Recession, and things are getting worse quickly at Caterpillar. Yet its stock price is up 30% from the lows just 2 months ago.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-18/simply-does-not-compute-if-caterpillar-data-right-industrial-depression-has-never-be

The chart data shows me that we will soon reach a peak on the S&P 500 so I’ve just placed a sell stop on all of my U.S. stock ETF holdings.

Take the high of the day, take the low of the day and that is the ‘range’.
Take the low of the day and subtract this range, and use that value as the sell stop for any and all of your DOW or S&P 500 ETF holdings.

We’ve pretty much reached the near term peak and for the next 2 months I think stocks will be falling from here.

The drop will start sometime this week.

#104 Seb's Free Advisor on 03.22.16 at 1:43 am

@Seb the soon to be journeyman:

So you have $25,000, and you will be given more if you prove you can invest it smartly? Sounds like an easy gain to me. So 30% in Canadian Equity index, 30% in global
Index, 20% in bond ETF, 10% REIT ETF, 10% Preferred Share ETF. In a year you might make 6%, but you will be given more! That’s the real way to milk this investment!

#105 bdy sktrn on 03.22.16 at 1:50 am

but it’s not hard to discern the feelings of regret when speaking with them
——————————–
don’t worry too much, they’ll feel much better in 6 months as van dirt ain’t cooling off for a while yet. the blossoms are out and they will love the next assessment

the flood over here is local, high income, west side refugees snatching up any and all.

ham and global cash displaced them.

nutin wrong with that

#106 Sherry Diaper on 03.22.16 at 1:53 am

Great Lib-Tard strategy, place a picture of Donald beside Adolph, hoping weak minds will conflate the two.

Instead, if you looked into the message the two authors, O’Reilly and Trump are trying to get across is that massive debt and politically correct Lib Tards are the problem. But Lib Tards would rather cast aspersions that perhaps Trump wants to build incinerators for climate change advocates, just like Adolph did the Jews.

The Nat Post asked us all last week to extend the courtesy to Junior and the Lib Tards of not constantly berating them for their idocy, but, it’s obvious Lib Tards and Panty Waist PMs are not deserving of respect they haven’t earned.

#107 Langley Lad on 03.22.16 at 2:08 am

#88 Hicksville Alberta on 03.21.16 at 10:50 pm

Been looking at some real estate in the Maritimes because it might be time for a fundamental lifestyle change and maybe the maritimes would be an interesting experience.
The things that seem to stand out to me are the apparent high taxation and the apparent quite severe lack of meaningful private sector employment which means quite a bit of poverty to marginal living for many and thus the difficulty in seeing a lot of younger persons moving to other places because of better living/ earning capacity.
In addition in quite a few places, the property taxes seem often quite high to very high in relation to the market value of a lot of properties. This suggests a real lack of a property tax base in those cases and this can become a self feeding downward spiral in property values over time because of the property tax burden required by the city or municipality to obtain the income they require to operate.
By the time Nothead and the new Federal Government are through with Alberta in four or five years or more, this place will likely be a shell of what it once was and at my age, it ain’t worth hanging around here, so a fundamental change might be refreshing.
Would appreciate anyone’s comments or thoughts on the maritimes because i am really quite attracted to it.

____

I posted yesterday about being a couple days away from moving our family of 5 from BC to Nova Scotia, so I can certainly shed some light on what you’re considering.

Your assessments regarding the taxes and such are correct. The maritime provinces have their problems just like the rest of the country. The county we’re moving to is called Pictou County, which is 45, 000 people. Outside of Halifax, the province has the lowest priced real estate in the country. If people are going to move there, I suggest they contextualize things differently than how they would if they’re living in another part of the country. The average household salary in most parts of Canada is around the 75,000 mark. In Pictou County, it’s 45,000. At first glance, a person would think it stupid to consider such a drop in income. As someone that has gotten on a plane and viewed a bunch of properties, I can tell you that there is much to be considered. The pace is beautifully relaxed. It has the feel of towns the size of Red Deer, Prince George, Brandon, etc. We bought a terrific brick house for only $150,000, but we needed a lot of size. (2600 sq. ft.) There a lot of properties in the 1200 to 1500 range that cost less and are well cared for homes. (Yes there are dumps of course :))

I saw a couple of 70’s split levels, around 2000 sq ft that had asking prices in the 160’s that were beautifully kept.

If you’ve only lived in the west, you might look at a map of the region and think that everything is spread out…it’s not. Nova Scotia fits into BC over 17 times. It’s not like the prairies in that you leave one town and you really feel like you’re in the middle of nowhere.

As someone who has only lived in western Canada my whole life, the reputation for friendliness is well deserved. I was on the ground for 3 and a half days and I was treated marvelously by the people. People acknowledge your existence when you go in or out of a store. The clerks don’t look like zombies when you go to purchase something. They are sincerely engaged and warm.

The area has a disproportionate number of seniors which is a concern for the economy but also an opportunity. These areas need people. The population in these areas is declining, hence the low real estate prices.

We’re excited for our 18 year old son who is going to become an auto mechanic. He has the ability to learn the trade and not be under some crazy pressure to earn absurd amounts of money just to put food on the table and a roof over his head.

I hope that helps.

#108 Lobster Man on 03.22.16 at 2:36 am

#88 Hicksville Alberta

Decades ago, I moved from Alberta to the Maritimes, but not for reasons based on the relative economic outlooks of the two regions. In fact, at that time Alberta was booming. Like you just said, I also found the Maritimes very attractive, and the when the right job opportunity came along, I went for it.

I lived there for over six years, and I enjoyed the time/people/places while I was there. It was a real life experience, especially for someone relative new to Canada at that time.

But I also saw what you just described as the not-so-positives. So I decided to leave. I now live in the Wet Coast, too used to that ocean smell I guess.

I only have one advise for you. Go for it, but be very sure that if and when you decide to leave the Maritimes, you can walk back through that door with relative ease.

#109 Canadida Fursternot on 03.22.16 at 4:13 am

Confused is the Liberal novice who voted for the Rockellers when they ‘thought’ they were voting for Junior T

“Calling itself, “a global online community of consumers, investors, and workers holding corporations accountable and pushing the global economy in the direction of equity, sustainability and justice,” SumOfUs is part of the Tar Sands Campaign, a well-heeled international effort to sway investment capital away from Canada and tarnish the appeal of Alberta oil by generating a “highly negative media profile” and a “steady drumbeat of bad press.”

Since 2008, Tides has paid at least $28 million to 75 Canadian First Nations and environmental groups involved in the Tar Sands Campaign.”‘

Some big concepts there, so pay close attention, “To sway international investment capital away from Canada’.

Does not mean that the same international money wasn’t invested in energy elsewhere, just ‘swayed’ by Canada’s competitors to another jurisdiction for the benefit of the Tides people, Rockefellers, Obama, etc.

So what now? Tomorrow Canada is going to let the Liberals borrow us into a swirling toilet of permanent debt in order to let Junior burnish Obama’s ‘legacy’.

100% taxation here we come.

#110 Canadida Fursternot on 03.22.16 at 4:21 am

#43 Bram

“#34 wallflower on 03.21.16 at 7:47 pm
My niece is 25. Shortly, she will be a mill wright. Employable globally.

Yes, but I think Canada (and maybe US) are the only countries with super-protected trades.
This increases their wages.
So abroad, their income may be far less.”

*****So right, this girl is unemployable in all but a very few countries.

Recently I saw an ad for a registered nurse with ten years experience for work in the UAE, paying $1000.00 per month. The same nurse qualifications in Canada would be making a union salary with full time and pay and early retirement with double dip privilege benefits and pension of approx $200,000 per year all in. Why do you think our healthcare costs are so high and nurses like this are a dime a dozen in the ROTW?

I went to a dentist recently to fix a broken tooth which in Canada would cost me at least $1200. I paid $40.

#111 Vangrrl on 03.22.16 at 4:25 am

#61 Betamax:
Yup, my reaction too. I started feeling panicky just reading about this guy’s life. Had to pour another cup of coffee before reading past the $87K debt thing. But I know people like this- pushing 40 or older, acting like they’re still 25. But hey- Live for the day and all that. It’s a very dominant attitude on the ‘wet coast’, and a nice way to live…. within reason.

#112 earthboundmisfit on 03.22.16 at 6:36 am

Stephen …. in case Garth wasn’t clear about it ……… you are so f***ed.

#113 Devin Spoonfed on 03.22.16 at 6:48 am

“I regretfully visited Vancouver yesterday and took some friends for a barely edible lunch at the Sandbar in Granville Island, P.S. don’t go there. We had 3 tables in earshot and all of them talked YVR RE as they tried to swallow their 3 day old fresh seafood. My European friends couldn’t stop making condescending comments about bad Canadian food and how gauche Canadians are as we drove back to Seattle. I don’t think I can go to Van anymore, it is too embarrassing.”

**** Yup, and don’t forget that Vancouver LOST the Department of the Environment court battle to force the COV to stop dumping millions of liters a day of raw untreated fecal laden sewage and toxic hospital waste into the ‘pristine waters of False Creek, Burrard Inlet and English Bay’.

The tidal waters surrounding Vancouver are a sewage dump where 99% of all ground fish have obvious cancerous lesions that have to be shaved off before presentation by the purveyors for aesthetic reasons, yummy seafood buffet coming out of the waters surrounding Vancouver.

If anyone in Vancouver tells you to ‘Eat Shit and Die’, they mean you should go and have a seafood plate at one of the local restaurants and then a nice walk along the fecal coliform soaked sand. Enjoy the sunsets.

#114 cto on 03.22.16 at 7:54 am

Garth
I like reading your blog…but sometimes I have to call bullshit on some of your stories from blogger here. Blogs can be infotmative but the are a great place to bullshit as well.
Most young tradesman make 45 – 65 k a year .
I find trades do rival or do better than many U grads
One thing though the younger ones like all young people these days they tend to exagerate their earnings…

#115 MF on 03.22.16 at 8:01 am

-Brussels airport, subway hit with suicide bombers/gunmen, killing 28.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/brussels-airport-explosion-reports-1.3501831

Just disgusting and everyone knows full well who is responsible. Trump’s support should soar. Our PM looking more and more clueless, which most of us already knew.

RIP to all the victims.

MF

#116 Bottoms_Up on 03.22.16 at 8:04 am

#104 Seb’s Free Advisor on 03.22.16 at 1:43 am
—————————
That’s right, this is a test–is he content with a 6% gain, or will he throw caution to the wind and risk 100% loss in real estate?

#117 the left coast on 03.22.16 at 8:09 am

trump is trying to protect America from acts such as this. but shame on him not not being a politically correct leftist. a naughty naughty man for not welcoming and embracing all. If you condone this act, you are racist by PC definition

http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/blasts-at-brussels-airport-subway-at-least-28-dead-1.2826965

#118 Bottoms_Up on 03.22.16 at 8:16 am

#87 Unhinged Loon on 03.21.16 at 10:50 pm
———————————–
I don’t claim to be a Trump expert but here’s what I’ve heard:
1) no platform
2) no advisors
3) reckless policies with little in-depth thought
4) flighty
5) lack of diplomacy
6) lack of respect, especially toward women, minorities, colleagues, other governments and their leaders, cultures and institutions

I’m sure this is just the start of such a list.

#119 Millmech on 03.22.16 at 8:24 am

#114 cto
No bs,got a friend working out of the hall at $45/hr,lots of OT over six figures,with OT at my job I hit six figures,my last job on the coast with maxed out OT was clearing$3500/cheque,and most of the tradesmen were making that much(although seven days a week of work sucks after a couple of months).

#120 Ret on 03.22.16 at 8:28 am

‘meanwhile Pierre (sic) Trudeau is waving thousands through the border to the north of us’

I didn’t say it. Fox news did in the last 15 minutes. What can it all mean?

#121 Jan Next to Stan on 03.22.16 at 8:54 am

Thule, we do have Stanley Park, a unique experience for any of us living in the city. Seattle however has the most fantastic Japanese gardens anywhere in the world. They have Kubota gardens, Washington Park Arboretum, the Japanese Gardens at the Arboretum, the very interesting Olympic Sculpture Park along the water, and their version of our Stanley Park called Discovery Park. Come to think of it maybe they do have us TRUMPED in parks too. Get it? TRUMPED?

Their city is changing rapidly. My husband and I visit often and the growth they are experiencing seems impossible. The core difference between our two fine cities is Seattle seems to do a much better job of planning and getting in and out of the city makes more sense. All the styles of their buildings are much nicer as well. Why does every building have to look the same here? It is like no creativity at all goes into every condo tower that springs up here. When we drive back home from Seattle we find ourselves comparing both places. Inevidibly we too find ourselves longing to live there someday. Seattle really is just a nicer place to be all around even though it is so much bigger. It is unusual to find one metro so much larger than another like Seattle and Vancouver, but it is so much better at managing itself.

One thing instantly noticeable is how much cleaner Seattle is. If you visit both towns in a day you will notice the differences instantly. Here in Vancouver there actually is a lot of litter and trash laying around. We need to do a better job keeping our beautiful town cleaner.

#122 rjrt81 on 03.22.16 at 9:13 am

Seriously smoking man. Anyone as successful or intelligent as you constantly tell everyone you are doesn’t spend every waking hour trolling a blog. I put my
money on you being a 50+ loser living in his mothers basement with a large porn collection.

#123 Unhinged Loon on 03.22.16 at 9:20 am

@Bottoms Up

Trump comes from the corporate world. Building consensus and surrounding himself with the right people is almost as critical a skill as asset management.

Hilarious that a business lightweight like Garth would take the side of the cuckold left against the man.

#124 Herb on 03.22.16 at 9:26 am

#115 MF

There couldn’t be a more encouraging reaction for terrorists than lower markets!

Hope this isn’t news to you, but they want us to be afraid, disgusted and knowing who is responsible.

#125 LP on 03.22.16 at 9:27 am

#66 bdy sktrn builder bob on 03.21.16 at 9:08 pm

[email protected] the city , it’s my house. shove the permits up you know where.
***************
And in the event you should ever want/need to sell your house, what will you do when the buyer’s agent stipulates that you produce those very permits for all the after-market work that has been done on said house?

At the very least, permits and inspection should have been obtained for heating/hvac and electrical work. Problems in those installations can lead to serious illness and, at worst, to death in the event of a malfunction.

#126 get it right idiots on 03.22.16 at 9:31 am

DELETED (anti-immigrant)

#127 cecilhenry on 03.22.16 at 9:31 am

China is in trouble, and it creates troubles here too.

How China Is Causing Real Estate Bubbles Around the World

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/1998355-how-china-is-causing-real-estate-bubbles-around-the-world/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXVnoIThq-A

#128 Penny Henny on 03.22.16 at 9:35 am

#2 pathcontrolmonk on 03.21.16 at 5:44 pm
I regretfully visited Vancouver yesterday and took some friends for a barely edible lunch at the Sandbar in Granville Island, P.S. don’t go there. We had 3 tables in earshot and all of them talked YVR RE as they tried to swallow their 3 day old fresh seafood. My European friends couldn’t stop making condescending comments about bad Canadian food and how gauche Canadians are as we drove back to Seattle. I don’t think I can go to Van anymore, it is too embarrassing.
/////////////////////////////////////

Good, go back to Seattle you douchebag.
We don’t need you or your Eurotrash friends.
Good Riddance.

BTW- It smells much better up here since you left.

#129 bad internet advice guy on 03.22.16 at 9:49 am

#99 BK on 03.22.16 at 1:02 am

You should get a trophy for dumbest answer!

If you had kids in the same situation as most other people, would you send them off on a plane?
==========================

well dumb questions get dumb answers. and obviously you would go with them dipshit, you’re not going to send them alone.

ya, if the insanity got so bad i would go in a heartbeat. kids are surprisingly adaptable. i lived in 3 different countries before I was 8. most of the time it’s the parents who are too scared to move. afraid to step outside their little box so the kids are the reason for staying. my parents kept going till they found somewhere better.

I wonder if there are syrian refugees emailing garth: “hey garth, ISIS is bearing down on our city. what do you think we should do? our kids are in school and have made lots of friends.”

the point is that you’re not doing your kids any favours by staying. if house prices continue to disconnect from reality then your kids will grow up and have to move away to find work and housing. if the bubble pops it will be catastrophic and take years to recover from. try to use your brain, how long do you think it will take vancouver to recover from this bubble popping now? the economy will be in the shitter for 10+ years. Or it never pops. then what? I think some ppl in vancouver think that there is somehow a good ending for all this. there isn’t. and you think that this is the best possible thing you could do for your kids? try growing a pair. think this through. then make a decision.

i’ve watched housing bubbles pop and relatives get caught up in it. it’s not a quick recovery. takes years for the economy to get back on track. not pretty. years and years of youth unemployment. little job creation kids have to move away from their families. built lives far away from their networks aunt and uncle stayed in ireland for its bubble. now 2/3 kids have built lives in australia. maybe get home once every 2-3 years. at least they have skype. kid who stayed can barely stayed employed. wasting her youth and can’t get any experience.

The point is that i am sick of listening to vancouverites whine on this blog every night about how unaffordable their city is. it’s like somebody built a wall around the damn city. Leave! it’s a big ass world. you don’t even have to go that far. just a more affordable city. yes take the kids. they are allowed on planes too believe it or not.

but stop coming here to whine. do you think garth has some magic solution. he already told you it’s nutz. what more do you want? stay, leave, lie to yourself: “it’s for the kids”. whatever. i’m just giving you a third option because vancouverites are apparently morons. literally can’t find their way out of their own city.

#130 Ronaldo on 03.22.16 at 9:52 am

#121 Jan next To Stan

”One thing instantly noticeable is how much cleaner Seattle is. If you visit both towns in a day you will notice the differences instantly. Here in Vancouver there actually is a lot of litter and trash laying around. We need to do a better job keeping our beautiful town cleaner.”

Visited Vancr after several weeks in Europe and that is the one thing that struck me was the unceanliness of Vancouver streets and side streets. Broadway especially is filthy with litter and main not much better. Not very classy for a place where average house prices in excess of 1 million.

#131 Shawn on 03.22.16 at 10:33 am

Don’t Let the Terrorists Win

It would be easy to react to terrorism by canceling travel plans.

I have a trip planed for July to Amsterdam which is in the same country as Brussels.

I am happy to report that my reaction is more of defiance than fear. I will not for one moment consider canceling my trip.

The reality is that the chances of being harmed in a terrorist attack are extremely tiny. And if it happens, well, then I will have been a sort of soldier against terrorism and there is honor in that.

If some people cancel travel plans or otherwise take actions that allow the terrorists to win, I can see why they would that but I don’t think it is the best reaction.

(I have broken my self imposed two month hiatus from posting to spread the word that the best reaction is to go about life as usual.)

#132 cramar on 03.22.16 at 10:36 am

#84 Mark on 03.21.16 at 10:34 pm

for others, they can’t get a job with 2 professional tech degrees in a booming sector.

There are almost no booming tech sectors in Canada or the US, and haven’t been for many years. Stop talking out of your arse. Most of us can see right through your trolling.

———————–

Was just reading an article about this company in my old home town. They are growing dramatically and have customers in 40 countries. Real growth industry. If I was still in the workforce, I would be banging on their door to assess their needs. They are looking to hire quite a few.

http://www.clearpathrobotics.com/

#133 Smoking Man on 03.22.16 at 10:51 am

#115 MF on 03.22.16 at 8:01 am
-Brussels airport, subway hit with suicide bombers/gunmen, killing 28.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/brussels-airport-explosion-reports-1.3501831

Just disgusting and everyone knows full well who is responsible. Trump’s support should soar. Our PM looking more and more clueless, which most of us already knew.

RIP to all the victims.

MF
……………..

Barbarians!

Wonder how this will be sold in the Liberal kum-biy-a narrative. Will they actually use the word radical Islamic wack jobs.

Trump said in a speech a few months ago , Brussels is a hell hole. They just gave him another 5% up in the poles.

#134 Smoking Man on 03.22.16 at 11:03 am

#117 the left coast on 03.22.16 at 8:09 am
trump is trying to protect America from acts such as this. but shame on him not not being a politically correct leftist. a naughty naughty man for not welcoming and embracing all. If you condone this act, you are racist by PC definition

http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/blasts-at-brussels-airport-subway-at-least-28-dead-1.2826965.
…………….

That’s the thing with liberalism. They use fear and shaming as a tool to keep the false fairy tail narrative alive.

Today things you can be shamed for:
Question the screening process of 25k war zone refuges
Being a strait white masculine man.
Having a blue collar job in the oil sands.
Being a Climate change skeptic.
Living in rural communities.
Feeling sorry for Rob Ford.
Reading the Toronto Sun.

I could go one forever.

#135 TurnerNation on 03.22.16 at 11:09 am

What’s the meme? That they hate our freedoms? Or we fight so little girls go to school?

Since time began humans have fought over only two issues:
– A chance to pro-create
– Land and resources.

Human behavior is fixed. In that sense going into a city and acting makes no sense without demands for the above.
Therefore, who is behind these senseless actions? Is it elites hoping to shock us further into submission and end our freedom of travel? Adding 101 new laws against freedom each year? Check. That’s a common theme.

The actors today have no demands. This is the dog that didn’t bark.

(Remember the old days of Take this plane to Cuba. Now there’s a real demand)

#136 fancy_pants on 03.22.16 at 11:10 am

I have a trip planed for July to Amsterdam which is in the same country as Brussels.

was there last summer. Amsterdam, Netherlands Brussels, Belgium – separate countries but yeah, @3 hours drive away from each other, doesn’t impact your point.

#137 Smoking Man on 03.22.16 at 11:13 am

RIP Rob Ford.

You where best mayor Toronto ever had.

#138 dosouth on 03.22.16 at 11:25 am

“…Assuming the bottom doesn’t fall out in the next 6 weeks I will have some money that I need to invest…..”

I just can’t get up off the floor after reading this line. No wonder this generation is doomed…… BWAAAHAAAA!

Thanks for the entertainment

#139 Iconoclast on 03.22.16 at 11:39 am

#115 MF

> Just disgusting and everyone knows full well who is
> responsible. Trump’s support should soar. Our PM looking
> more and more clueless, which most of us already knew.

The SJWs will blame those despicable Gamergate nerds. Or the KKK. They probably don’t like Belgians very much.

#140 Penny Henny on 03.22.16 at 11:46 am

Garth do you remember that blog from months ago where you told us of a couple who were sending out letters to homeowners expressing their interest in buying that persons house without the need for a real estate agent to get involved.

Well I would bet that that couple were adding an assignment clause in the offer and then graciously offering a long closing to the seller. This way the could have a minimal amount of cash in the deal (deposit of 50-100 k) and gain from any upside in the house without having to deal with Toronto’s double land transfer tax.
Smart!

#141 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.22.16 at 11:49 am

#131 Shawn on 03.22.16 at 10:33 am
Don’t Let the Terrorists Win

It would be easy to react to terrorism by canceling travel plans.

I have a trip planed for July to Amsterdam which is in the same country as Brussels.

I am happy to report that my reaction is more of defiance than fear. I will not for one moment consider canceling my trip.

The reality is that the chances of being harmed in a terrorist attack are extremely tiny. And if it happens, well, then I will have been a sort of soldier against terrorism and there is honor in that.

If some people cancel travel plans or otherwise take actions that allow the terrorists to win, I can see why they would that but I don’t think it is the best reaction.
————–
Agree with you.
Enjoy fewer tourists and lower prices.
BTW, Brussels is in Belgium. Though just a few hours train ride from Amsterdam.
If you find Amsterdam too crowded and expensive, try Haarlem.

#142 Saskatchewanite on 03.22.16 at 11:54 am

So looking at Nancy’s Rule of 90 situation:

It would have been better if they DIDN’T pay down so much of their mortgage but invested the money in a balanced portfolio instead?

So, are we saying that if you buy a house, don’t rush to pay off the mortgage, just make the minimum payment and invest the rest so you can stay within the Rule of 90?

That’s counter-intuitive for us because we don’t like debt.

What should we do?

We’ve got $140K in RRSPs & TFSAs and no debt.
Family income: $72K net
We’ve got 2 kids (yes, we’ve got about 6K in a family RESP but don’t include it in net worth because it’s for the offspring).

We’re currently renting a very small 2 bedroom house with unfinished basement for $825 + utilities.

We’d like to move into a bigger space (say 1,000 square feet) with 3 bedrooms, but here’s what we’d be looking at, if we’re modest about it:
Average rent: $1400
Average purchase: $200,000 (we might be able to snag a carpenter’s special for $150,000 and my husband is handy, but that means pouring more $ into the house)

The PRICE TO RENT RATIO indicates we should buy, right?
The RULE OF 90 also indicates we should buy as long as we put the minimum amount down and make the minimum mortgage payments? Can that be right?!?!?!

It doesn’t feel right. Help me out here.

#143 Judy on 03.22.16 at 11:55 am

To Peter buying mother’s house in Victoria: Since she was generous with the sale price, and you appear to be generating ample income, it seems quite right to try to improve your mother’s comforts in this 5-10 year window. Perhaps $20k ($) fixes would make a big difference, and you’d preserve more options for yourself 5-10 years down the road. However you might also consider building a nice carriage house on the property, with living space that would suit your long term rebuild master plan anyway. She could live in it meanwhile. Might be a better use of money than modifications to the existing structure.

Talk to a clever architect. Either way you’ll discover more about your long term building options. Good luck.

#144 Saskatchewanite on 03.22.16 at 11:56 am

I forgot to mention: My husband and I are 35 years old.

Here’s my original post:

So looking at Nancy’s Rule of 90 situation:

It would have been better if they DIDN’T pay down so much of their mortgage but invested the money in a balanced portfolio instead?

So, are we saying that if you buy a house, don’t rush to pay off the mortgage, just make the minimum payment and invest the rest so you can stay within the Rule of 90?

That’s counter-intuitive for us because we don’t like debt.

What should we do?

We’ve got $140K in RRSPs & TFSAs and no debt.
Family income: $72K net
We’ve got 2 kids (yes, we’ve got about 6K in a family RESP but don’t include it in net worth because it’s for the offspring).

We’re currently renting a very small 2 bedroom house with unfinished basement for $825 + utilities.

We’d like to move into a bigger space (say 1,000 square feet) with 3 bedrooms, but here’s what we’d be looking at, if we’re modest about it:
Average rent: $1400
Average purchase: $200,000 (we might be able to snag a carpenter’s special for $150,000 and my husband is handy, but that means pouring more $ into the house)

The PRICE TO RENT RATIO indicates we should buy, right?
The RULE OF 90 also indicates we should buy as long as we put the minimum amount down and make the minimum mortgage payments? Can that be right?!?!?!

It doesn’t feel right. Help me out here.

#145 TurnerNation on 03.22.16 at 11:59 am

A nameless and faceless enemy using old technologies (small arms) rendering superpowers impotent? I take that back: their pictures will be splashed across newspapers tomorrow. Funny how that works.
Only 100 new laws will save us…

Anyway, evidence Canada is a corrupted Second World country:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/montreal-decline-neil-macdonald-1.3501352

#146 get it right idiots on 03.22.16 at 12:26 pm

#126 get it right idiots on 03.22.16 at 9:31 am

DELETED (anti-immigrant)
……………………………………………………………
All right now since we were censored, how about posting the truth about this ridicules anti immigrant double standard. Three years ago, Montoya filed an application for permanent residency for himself, his wife and his two children. The fact that his son Nicolas had Down Syndrome was disclosed at the outset and confirmed by doctors the family visited for the medical exams required for the application process. Montoya said Nicolas, along with all the rest of the family, was found to be perfectly healthy. Now they will not allow the family to become landed immigrants. Come on Garth!

http://www.timescolonist.com/news/national/professor-s-family-may-have-to-leave-canada-over-son-s-down-syndrome-1.2201787

#147 Amsterdam is not in Belgium! on 03.22.16 at 12:37 pm

#131
“I have a trip planed for July to Amsterdam which is in the same country as Brussels.”

You must be a Trump supporter. What is this world coming to, sigh.

#148 maplemonarchs on 03.22.16 at 12:39 pm

Garth

I am surprised that you don’t advise people to move offshore and become legal non-residents, and come home for the summer, kind of like the monarch butterflies. If the correct jurisdiction is selected, all the US market capital gains are tax free and dividends at 15-30%….alot simpler than all of the restrictions of the TFSA etc….maybe you could write an article on it, or are you afraid on p*ssing off the Feds,….

#149 Entrepreneur on 03.22.16 at 1:08 pm

About Vancouver and Seattle…I think that is what Vancouver residents are complaining about the mess from lot of these empty houses. I also remember reading/news about the increasing of rats in that city. I imagine that is a concern today.

Seattle is American and in U.S. the unions are not that strong as Canada plus in Canada the unions are very strong. When working with union members the famous saying is “not in the contract” and when Canada is mostly union, what do you get……!

Another point but is about the shootings in schools & how everyone is so surprised, which I am the least. Schools hush, hush (or turn a blind eye) about bullying, fighting, name calling, etc. which comes through experience. When younger the teachers watched and corrected but they were not union (or not as strong) at that time and wanted a nice school but now it is “not in the contract.”

#150 Shawn on 03.22.16 at 1:13 pm

My mistake Brussels is Belgium. Couple people here pointed that out respectfully one anonymous dink chose to insult rather than get the point. Which was don’t let the terrorists win by changing our free travel behavior

#151 Priarie Oysters for All on 03.22.16 at 1:16 pm

147 Amsterdam is not in Belgium! on 03.22.16 at 12:37 pm

#131
“I have a trip planed for July to Amsterdam which is in the same country as Brussels.”

You must be a Trump supporter. What is this world coming to, sigh.

It may as well be if you’ve been enjoying some coffee…..

#152 Shawn on 03.22.16 at 1:18 pm

Netherlands and Belgium are also closely related I recall from high school 40 years ago were called the Benelux countries. See I am not totally ignorant. Unlike one anonymous responder to me.

#153 Mr. Frugal on 03.22.16 at 1:20 pm

#147 Amsterdam is not in Belgium! on 03.22.16 at 12:37 pm
#131
“I have a trip planed for July to Amsterdam which is in the same country as Brussels.”

You must be a Trump supporter. What is this world coming to, sigh.

——————–

Glad to see that you have enough free time on your hand to correct other people’s errors. I would bet you’re a T2 supporter.

#154 Don Derc on 03.22.16 at 1:27 pm

Interesting photo – especially since I just finished reading a book, borrowed from a conspiracy theory buddy. The book is called “The Rise of the Fourth Reich” by Jim Marr.

It’s obvious we are just as ignorant about global/amerikan politics as we are about consumer financing in real estate.

I’m now looking at buying a house in Chilliwack for under $250K – why? Because it will be worth a million dollars in the market by 2038 – just in time for me to cash out and hit the senior care home to make romantic passes at blue haired beauties.

Sr care rooms start at $2K a month plus a la carte options. Wonder what they’ll charge when I arrive at their buffet in 20 years.

That’s Garth’s steel toed boot print on my rear end as I’m escorted out the door of this blog room. Looks like an 8M wide to me.

#155 Hicksville Alberta on 03.22.16 at 1:30 pm

# 107 Langley Lad
Thanks for your post on the Maritimes. It basically confirms my thoughts as well and i guess i have no real problems with the thought process. I am a senior so i would be adding to that bunch but i just think it may be time to look at things differently. There is so much history and so many interesting things to look at out there.
For you, with your younger family, even with lower incomes in the private sector, it likely would be much easier for your children to establish themselves over time and end up with an affordable home if they decided to stay or if not, an affordable good education which would enable them to move on as others have if there were better prospects elsewhere.
Who knows, because of the relatively affordable nature of things , a real opportunity may come available to start a new business out there.
Good luck to you and your family.

# 108 Lobster Man
Thanks for your post as well.
I probably fall more into your camp because of age and the ability to be more flexible now with my kids mostly grown and doing their own things for better or worse.
Funny you moved from Alberta to the Maritimes and now out to the West Coast.
I moved years ago from B.C. to Alberta and it’s definitely time for a change and even though i have a B.C. place on the Sunshine Coast sitting mostly empty i just am drawn much more to the Maritimes, at least for now.

It’s a lot of work and effort trying to let go of the past and move on, but if i can get that done, i think the Maritimes opportunity may be more appealing and interesting. Just so many interesting things out there for an old geezer.

#156 Former Intel CEO Andrew Grove on 03.22.16 at 1:40 pm

RIP – Nyugodj bekeben, Andras.

Former Intel CEO Andrew Grove has died, aged 79.

Grove’s story is in many ways an American classic. Born András István Gróf in Hungary in 1936, Grove was Jewish. He and his mother survived World War Two by hiding under assumed identities. His family then fled the failed Hungarian revolution of 1956, which saw the Soviet Union crush attempts to overthrow its puppet regime.

Having survived Nazism and Communism, Grove’s family migrated to and flourished in the United States. Within years the young man had learned English, earned a bachelor’s degree in chemical engineering, added a PhD in the same field and then scored a job on the bleeding edge of science and industry at Fairchild Semiconductor.

At Fairchild Grove rubbed shoulders with Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore, respectively Fairchild’s founder and R&D chief. In 1968 Noyce and Moore left Fairchild to found Intel. Grove, by 1968 Moore’s assistant, was present at the company’s founding and was hired as employee number one.

In Intel’s early years, it mostly made memory. But by the late 1970s the company saw margins falling in that field and made a move for the central processing unit market. Grove was at the heart of that decision, as by 1979 he was the company’s president, a position he held until 1997.

By 1987 he was CEO, a post he held until 1998. During that time Intel’s x86 architecture came to dominate the computer industry, thanks in part to IBM’s decision to base its PC design on Intel CPUs but also because Grove made sure Intel cranked out excellent product. During his tenure as CEO Intel moved from the 5MHz 8088 that powered the IBM PC to the Pentium II that introduced the Celeron and Xeon sub-brands Intel still uses today.

Intel grew to a market capitalisation of US$197 billion during his tenure as CEO and became one of the world’s ten most valuable companies. Revenues went from $1.9bn to $26.7 billion on his watch.

#157 Karl hungus on 03.22.16 at 1:43 pm

Garth, thoughts on Peter Schiff ?

#158 Langley Lad on 03.22.16 at 2:06 pm

#155 Hicksville Alberta on 03.22.16 at 1:30 pm

If you do decide to move out to the maritimes, there is a one of a kind real estate service and website that Garth has spoken about several times called http://www.viewpoint.ca
It’s only available for Nova Scotia properties, but it is the equivalent of Zillow in the states. It gives a ton of great information for free. You just need to sign up and you get tons of data like sales history, length of time on market, etc. It’s the kind of data the regular mls site doesn’t want people to have. They make their money through the realtors that are part of their organization. I highly recommend them. I used Peter Fraser for the purchase of our home in Pictou County and he was tremendous…no b.s.

#159 mishuko on 03.22.16 at 2:31 pm

@#114 cto -> I broke 50k this year. like realsies…. I’m not exaggerating. barely but still counts. not 49999… like fiddy. not that it was much more than that though.
now am I exaggerating or talking truth?

#160 Move on VREU on 03.22.16 at 2:51 pm

The Victoria market and surrounding communities are on fire with a 40% increase in sales and a 15% increase in benchmark prices in a month.

The plague of Vancouver has finally descended upon the Island just as it has in the Fraser Valley and the Okanagan.
Vancouver has become a bedroom community for the rich and the local population is fleeing.

As someone that fled Vancouver several years ago due to a decimation for the city from high house prices, after living there for a decade, I am seeing a repeat of what occurred in Vancouver in Victoria. Houses being sold immediately, sellers listing way above assessment with accepted offers, and a changing demographic.

Does Victoria have a bustling economy, massive population growth, or international ties to other countries? No – it does not. Population growth is anemic, in part because there are no industries left here. We do not have international connections nor world class amenities to draw the cash rich.

We have had the same low rates for 8 years, and the market has remained stagnant. Yet, in the past year, the market has turned with a vengeance as witnessed by the sales and price growth.

Hmmmm….what could possibly be the reason? Did the locals all of a sudden realize how low rates are, despite being the same level for many years? Did Victoria just become the next New York with massive international attraction?

Unless the Vancouver market stops, this trend will continue as all ships rise with a rising wave (and the last to rise is also the first to fall though). The sleepy population of Victoria has no clue what is about to happen to them.

Bears, including myself, always look at fundamental analysis when conducting asset valuations. And while some naive posters will tell you local incomes will not support these prices, I reiterated the same when commenting on the Vancouver market. And 12 years later, incomes make no difference in that market.

We live in a globalized economy where we actively court the rich to ‘invest’ in our Province with no economic benefit. Our boomers are happy to sell out to the highest bidder and create a indentured service class made up of their kids.

As they say, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. I know what is about to happen, and this time, I am investing in the market. I will not be pushed out again…

#161 Sebastian on 03.22.16 at 2:51 pm

#4

I’m a union steamfitter. At a rate of $42/h in town industrial guys make around $80k and going out of town and working overtime I’ve seen guys pull up to $140k if they work 7 days a week nearly all year.

#162 cramar on 03.22.16 at 3:00 pm

#144 Saskatchewanite on 03.22.16 at 11:56 am

I forgot to mention: My husband and I are 35 years old.

Here’s my original post:

So looking at Nancy’s Rule of 90 situation:

It would have been better if they DIDN’T pay down so much of their mortgage but invested the money in a balanced portfolio instead?

So, are we saying that if you buy a house, don’t rush to pay off the mortgage, just make the minimum payment and invest the rest so you can stay within the Rule of 90?

That’s counter-intuitive for us because we don’t like debt.

What should we do?

We’ve got $140K in RRSPs & TFSAs and no debt.
Family income: $72K net
We’ve got 2 kids (yes, we’ve got about 6K in a family RESP but don’t include it in net worth because it’s for the offspring).

We’re currently renting a very small 2 bedroom house with unfinished basement for $825 + utilities.

We’d like to move into a bigger space (say 1,000 square feet) with 3 bedrooms, but here’s what we’d be looking at, if we’re modest about it:
Average rent: $1400
Average purchase: $200,000 (we might be able to snag a carpenter’s special for $150,000 and my husband is handy, but that means pouring more $ into the house)

The PRICE TO RENT RATIO indicates we should buy, right?
The RULE OF 90 also indicates we should buy as long as we put the minimum amount down and make the minimum mortgage payments? Can that be right?!?!?!

It doesn’t feel right. Help me out here.

—————–

Where are you getting the down payment from? It seems that you are keen to plan for the future since all your investments are in registered funds. Are you are raiding your TFSA for the down payment?

Since you eschew debt, I think you might have answered your own question. If you can afford $1400/month rent and still sock money away for future and retirement, that is the easy side of the equation. In buying, you would have to spend far less every month to compensate for taxes and other factors down the road (new roof, furnace, etc.). What if there is a job loss or other factors that force you to sell in 5-10 years? If the house is worth more then, you win. If it is worth less than your mortgage, you loose. Buying is doable, but are you comfortable with if?

Just remember you are buying at a RE peak and with a historic interest rate low. Likely in future these will change dramatically. How will that effect you down the road?

#163 bad internet advice guy on 03.22.16 at 3:00 pm

#160 Move on VREU on 03.22.16 at 2:51 pm

ireland once thought that dublin was a “world-class” city. The next new york. prices could only soar. people bought an hour outside the city on speculation. they were bitterly disappointed.

#164 Roial1 on 03.22.16 at 3:02 pm

69 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.21.16 at 9:21 pm

“It is unfortunate how few people ever actually experience the freedom that comes from owing a house outright. Once you have experienced it, it is not something you give up willingly.”

that’s stupid thinking. freedom doesn’t come from a primary residence. and I’m saying this from the perspective of someone who sold their anchor of a primary residence to be able to do whatever I want anywhere I want
—————————————————————–

And I can say just the opposite. My wife and I travel.
A lot.
Europe x many times, Asia x2, Australia, Canada, (coast to coast) total circumference of the U.S., the Caribbean, Alaska and soon Africa.
All of this on a shoe sting budget and all of it fun.

Our paid off home is a great base and comfort to come home to.
We plan to die here in due coarse. (not to rush things.) (BUT!)
By following Garth’s advice in investment planning we should be able to live as we wish for a long time to come.
Thanks Garth.

#165 Lobster Man on 03.22.16 at 3:08 pm

155 Hicksville Alberta

You are welcome! Do enjoy the Maritimes. While you’re there, also try out the US Northeast. There are many gorgeous places there too. And London, England is only a short hop from Halifax…..

Always a contrarian at heart, I left Alberta in 1974 (the year of the Arab oil embargo). Before that, I lived in Ottawa/Montreal/Toronto. Like the old pendulum swinging ever wider, my next move could well be to Newfoundland. Just kidding.

In the meantime, enjoy the lobsters and the PEI mussels.

#166 JP on 03.22.16 at 3:08 pm

Teardowns in Surrey being sold in bidding wars for over $650k-$750k, same teardowns were $450k-500k less than a yr ago. This is sheer madness.

#167 cramar on 03.22.16 at 3:09 pm

156 Former Intel CEO Andrew Grove on 03.22.16 at 1:40 pm

RIP – Nyugodj bekeben, Andras.

Former Intel CEO Andrew Grove has died, aged 79.

[snip]

————–

What I remember Grove for most was his 1998 book title, Only the Paranoid Survive. Luv it!

Should be the mantra for anyone feeling the Dark Side pulling them to buy RE in the GTA or Vancouver.

#168 Move on VREU on 03.22.16 at 3:30 pm

#160 Move on VREU on 03.22.16 at 2:51 pm

ireland once thought that dublin was a “world-class” city. The next new york. prices could only soar. people bought an hour outside the city on speculation. they were bitterly disappointed.
—————————————-

Yes, and their boom bust was done within a few years with only a minimal influence of foreign capital. It was primarily a locally built and dismantled housing boom.

Vancouverites, if you can actually call them that because it implies a sense of community, have been in a multi-decade bull market attributable to foreign capital, low interest rates, and economy historically built on real estate speculation.

There is no political will to clamp down on the influence of foreign capital in the city. The city has accepted its fate as a bedroom community for the international rich because that is deemed to be economic advancement. There are more people willing to park their ill-gotten gains in Vancouver and ‘benefit’ from its overly generous social welfare system than there are homes available.

As more and more ‘Vancouverite’ realize that the city does not want or need them, they will relocate to greener pastures. This will be a multi-year relocation of its citizens and they will go somewhere, usually in BC.

When they relocate, they add pressure to local prices. And when the prices rise and a community becomes desirable, well, that is when the foreign capital comes. Rinse and repeat and the plague of Vancouver spreads like a virus.

We always critique indebted Canadians as having not learned from their mistake of over-leveraging from the American experience. Well British Columbians should be critiqued from not learning from the impact of foreign capital on the liveability of their communities.

By the way, Victoria will never be a ‘world class city.’ When you are parking money, it only needs to be a city that is safe, supportive, and with a great social welfare system. Vancouver is not a ‘world class city’ and look at what has happened there…

#169 Mixed Bag on 03.22.16 at 3:43 pm

Rest in Peace, Mr. Ford.

Our sincerest condolences to your family, especially for the young children who lost their father, and his mother who lived to see her son die.

#170 Saskatchewanite on 03.22.16 at 3:52 pm

#162 cramar

Thanks for your response to my question at:
#144 Saskatchewanite on 03.22.16 at 11:56 am

We’ll consider everything that you’ve said.

Yes, we would be mostly raiding our TFSA for the down payment. We secretly hope our local housing market will correct so we can get a deal if we buy or see rents come down and snap up a larger house for a nice affordable monthly rent.

In small cities like ours, will we just see a timid version of the price corrections that Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto will see? OR will the small cities freak out and over correct because, hey, they’re small and unpopular relative to the big centres?

Will oil creep be enough? We have 3 small oil projects not far from our town. 1 has just been completed with 2 more in the works and all 3 of them can produce a profit for the oil company even with oil at this low price – that’s what the big cheese said in the newspaper the other week.

All our investments are in registered accounts because we figured our priorities should be:
1. TFSAs (maxed)
2. RRSPs (working on it)
3. Margin (not started yet)

Right now, we invest $1700 monthly.
If our rent increased from $825 to $1400, our monthly investment contribution would go down by the difference.

If we purchased instead, total monthly bill would be under $1400 (property taxes would be around $2000/year) but then we’d have the uncertainty of maintenance costs plus we’d be anchored to a mortgage.

We very much enjoy the freedom of being debt free and being mobile. But it’s also getting tight in this tiny house. *Sigh* If only rent prices came down – that would be ideal!

OR if we won the lottery and built a passive/net zero house/duplex. That would be SWEET! Guess we’d have to buy a lottery ticket first and we just can’t bring ourselves to do that. Lottery = tax for people who are bad at math.

Where are you getting the down payment from? It seems that you are keen to plan for the future since all your investments are in registered funds. Are you are raiding your TFSA for the down payment?

Since you eschew debt, I think you might have answered your own question. If you can afford $1400/month rent and still sock money away for future and retirement, that is the easy side of the equation. In buying, you would have to spend far less every month to compensate for taxes and other factors down the road (new roof, furnace, etc.). What if there is a job loss or other factors that force you to sell in 5-10 years? If the house is worth more then, you win. If it is worth less than your mortgage, you loose. Buying is doable, but are you comfortable with if?

Just remember you are buying at a RE peak and with a historic interest rate low. Likely in future these will change dramatically. How will that effect you down the road?

#171 Bram on 03.22.16 at 4:07 pm

#134 Smoking Man on 03.22.16 at 11:03 am
Being a Climate change skeptic.

That indeed shows ignorance.
Please let climate science to the climate scientists, and don’t try to be an armchair expert.

If you go to 20 doctors, and 19 of them say you have cancer, will you be skeptical, and insist you need no treatment?

As long as you don’t have a Phd in sciences, I have no interest in what you have to say about the climate. Chances are, that you will just parrot some Oil-shills.

Bram

#172 S.Bby on 03.22.16 at 4:13 pm

#51 Ace Goodheart

“It is unfortunate how few people ever actually experience the freedom that comes from owing a house outright. Once you have experienced it, it is not something you give up willingly.”

I had a paid-off house and I gave it up willingly and have never looked back. I much prefer the freedom of renting.

#173 Capt. Obvious on 03.22.16 at 4:32 pm

I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that markets have already fully priced in terrorism. Barely a shrug today.

#174 bad internet advice guy on 03.22.16 at 4:45 pm

#168 Move on VREU on 03.22.16 at 3:30 pm

When they relocate, they add pressure to local prices. And when the prices rise and a community becomes desirable, well, that is when the foreign capital comes. Rinse and repeat and the plague of Vancouver spreads like a virus.

that’s some pretty interesting logic there. You assume that foreign capital will spill over into less attractive regional BC cities. So you are banking on infinite foreign capital into BC?

I have to point out the circular nature of your reasoning. If many BC locals believe that this will happen and take the same course of action as you. Prices could rise in Victoria. bubble started. No foreign capital needed. All locals.

It would end up looking a little like the irish guy who bought an hour outside of dublin on the speculative hope that prices would rise. Actually. what you’re doing is more or less the same thing.

Which is a local, buying regionally on speculation. Only difference is that you ASSUME that foreign buyers are a LARGE percentage of the buyers right now in vancouver.

When in reality it is probably a combination of foreign money + locals driving each other up. I think you should nail down just what percentage of the buyers are actually ‘foreign capital’ in vancouver. Because 10-20% foreign + locals VS infinite foreign money are very different scenarios for your plan.

if foreign buyers represent only a small percentage. And that percentage gets removed. then…..

#175 JoeK on 03.22.16 at 4:59 pm

#42 Ace Goodheart on 03.21.16 at 8:03 pm
I still say this philosophy is nuts. Why would you rent when a house that you own costs peanuts to live in?
———————————————————–
Why? Because I live 10km from work in a fairly new 2 bedroom basement suite w/ 10ft ceilings, for $1000/month. This allows me to live on less than 1/2 months pay and bank the rest.

A close friend lives 5km from me, and owns in a ritzy part of Burnaby (next to Vancouver). His city taxes are almost $7K and house maintenance is on top of that. And he can no longer get a homeowner grant as his place is now valued over 1.3mil – but he’s not willing to ca$h in.

I loose my job… “Hello Costa Rica” or other sunny climes for a few months, or other parts of Canada if not the world. Him… job hunting options are rather restricted.

#176 Chris B on 03.22.16 at 5:31 pm

I enjoy reading your blog, Garth, but it would be improved if you avoided the temptation to be snide. Substituting the word “successful” for “rich” is irritating for those of us who make a decent living, but are implied to be failures by you.

Canadians earning $200,000 are not rich. — Garth

#177 Darth Vader on 03.23.16 at 2:26 am

Darn it! I told Hitlery not to use so much force lighting!! Now she looks like Palpaltine and damn it Trump will win have you seen his wife? No signs of force lighting there. They are putting photos up of Trumps wife when she was a model and saying “do you want this for your next first lady??” and I am saying “hell yes” so long as she doesn’t get into the force lightning.