Chick trouble

DOG CHICKS modified

From Seattle, one of the pricier US cities, Canadian housing prices look sick. Sick bad, I mean. Not the old kind. And not just Vancouver. So what’s a Yank to do when he falls for a Canadian delicacy and is suddenly dragged to Toronto?

Thus, the Perils of Jake.

“Love the blog, but I need help,” he says. “I’m a 27 year old software engineer in Seattle with girlfriend (soon to be wife) in Toronto. My salary is $120k USD/yr and girlfriend’s is 45k CAD/yr. Thanks to my great job and frugal ways, I’ve been able to accrue $120,000 CAD. No other debt, no car. My girlfriend has around $60,000 CAD plus we have around $50k in cash in a savings account.

“I’m planning on coming to Toronto within a year and it’ll be easy for me to get a job but the Canadian tech pay is crappy relative to Seattle. I’ll probably be making 90-100k CAD/year. Should we just buy a 500k townhome at that point? I’m being pressured by family/girlfriend but my gut tells me to just rent and invest. Help!”

So the house-pumpers (and the babe’s family) would say Jake, dude, buy that property! After all, you have almost half the purchase price in cash, which would mean you’d end up with a $280,000 mortgage carrying for a little less than $1,300 a month. Where ya gonna rent for less?

Of course, that’s a Frankenumber. Add in insurance, property tax and the lost earning potential on the $230,000 downpayment, and the real monthly cost is more like $2,750. And for almost three grand in Toronto you can rent a far better place than you can buy for five large. But, this does not tell the whole story, Jake.

Let’s talk risk.

First, if you do the half-million townhouse thing, there’s the risk of having a one-asset strategy. All of your liquid assets will be gone (along with your larger US salary), which means a market correction, job loss or unexpected event could hit you hard.

There’s babe risk. What if the relationship doesn’t work out after you’ve poured every dollar into a property with a person you have not yet really come to know? Once you’re both on the deed, there’s no changing the outcome.

There’s future risk. After all, $230,000 invested at age 27, especially inside tax shelters like TFSAs over a couple of decades, is going to multiple faster than mold in East Van. By the time you’re fifty it should be a million bucks – which is sweet, given the fact most IT people have zilch in the way of corporate pensions. If you buy the townhouse instead, you might end up with… a townhouse. Wow.

And there’s market risk.

While the award-winning macroeconomists who come here don’t buy it, it appears the Fed will be raising rates twice this year, and the Bank of Canada will follow in due course. That means no more 2.5% five-year mortgages in 2017. But even without that upward pressure on rates, we’re headed for a wall in Canuckistan, home of the tax-and-spenders. Credit counselling agencies have never been busier. Chairs in high-end hairdressing salons are sitting empty. RV sales are cratering. Wages are hardly budging, so the legacy of the real estate binge has been an unimaginable pile ($1.9 trillion) of debt. Household finances are far more tenuous than they appear, a fact borne out by the collapse in RRSP contributions, a vapid savings rate and half of all families admitting they’d fold with a modest hike in monthly payments.

Meanwhile, Jake, the house lust spreads. The nation’s realtors just announced the average shack has crossed the $500,000 mark for the first time – quite a feat considering you can buy a nice place for $200,000 in Nova Scotia or $300,000 in Montreal. That’s a 16% rise in a single year, when inflation was 2% and salaries increased 1%. Says BeeMo economist Bob Kavcic, “It’s starting to look a little too hot for comfort.” No guff.

Toronto prices, we’re told, rose 15% over the year, vastly distorted by a historic lack of supply – barely over a month’s worth. This is so characteristic of an unhealthy and unbalanced market in which people don’t sell, out of fear of having to buy again, while buyers are forced into competition. History tells us that conditions will change. Common sense should tell you to wait. We’re not at the beginning of a buy-now-or-buy-never escalation, but nearing the end of a greater-fool slugfest.

If you truly love this girl, J, do the right thing. Make her bitterly disappointed. We’re right behind you.

214 comments ↓

#1 The Donald on 03.16.16 at 5:48 pm

First to get the delegates! and First to post here.

#2 Exilled on 03.16.16 at 5:52 pm

Sir Garth: To Jake: Don”t do it, The Townhouse, that is. Marry her but don”t buy her a house!

#3 calgaryPhantom on 03.16.16 at 5:52 pm

If you truly love this girl, J, do the right thing. Make her bitterly disappointed. We’re right behind you.

—————————————————-

HAHAHAHAH

#4 Randy on 03.16.16 at 5:53 pm

Fake Story Garth. He’s supposed to be a millennial and it that was true the whining would be unbearable.

#5 Bank of Millennial on 03.16.16 at 5:58 pm

Jake don’t get capitulate and swing at these crappy pitches, you can afford to wait for a good pitch to hit a home run. There are no foul balls or strikes in this game.

Less than a month until the Blue Jays are back.

#6 Canadian on 03.16.16 at 5:59 pm

Speaking of the RV economy one of the larger RV dealers here in Alberta, Sunridge RV located in oilbuck-soaked Airdrie closed up shop overnight and declared bankruptcy with a full lot.

#7 understood by few on 03.16.16 at 6:00 pm

Seattle isn’t cheap. I mean, ya, compared to Vancouver and Toronto, sure. Amazon has driven up housing near lake Union. Rent isn’t particularly cheap either. A bit more expensive than Victoria last time I checked (though the current froth may have changed that).

Seattle does pay better though. So Seattle is MUCH MUCH cheaper than Vancouver and cheaper than Victoria as well when wage is taken into consideration. As Jake noted, a low 6 figures USD position there would pay high 5 figures CAD (give or take). With the current exchange rate that’s huge. Add in the difference in income tax and it’s an even bigger deal.

Portland is the place to be right now. Housing is still quite cheap and plenty of good paying tech jobs. The housing prices are adjusting quickly though thanks to the huge influx of tech companies.

#8 Rick on 03.16.16 at 6:00 pm

Why take that huge hair cut on your salary? Have her move to the US. Better weather by the way:)

#9 Canadian on 03.16.16 at 6:03 pm

Love the link to the general store (just noticed it for the first time) settling in for a quaint retirement running and a mom and pop and pup shop?

#10 molsson99 on 03.16.16 at 6:08 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bmo-porter-housing-crash-1.3493809

#11 Victoria Real Estate Update on 03.16.16 at 6:10 pm

REAL ESTATE “PROFESSIIONALS“ CLAIMED VICTORIA WAS A BIG TECH TOWN IN 2010

In 2010 you would have heard Victoria real estate “professionals” go on and on about how Victoria’s tech industry was booming and that Victoria was a big tech town and that this was supposed to push house prices higher in Victoria for years.

They presented no facts to back their claims, yet they insisted they were right and that house prices in Victoria would be on a permanent upward trajectory, making all 2010 buyers rich.

Were they right? Did those 2010 buyers who rushed in, motivated by the fear of “missing out”, get to watch the value of their homes rise year after year, as claimed by real estate “professionals”?

Decide for yourself. The performance of Saanich East’s single family home market is presented in the chart below.

. . . . . . . Single Family Home Prices. . . . . . . . .
. Percent Above/Below March 2010 Price Level. .
. . . . . .x = Toronto, * = Saanich East. . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+25%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x. . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+20% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+15%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .x. . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+10% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
….0%. . . x*. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . *. . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-10%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . *. . .
——————————————————————————
. . . . . . March. . . . . . . March. . . . .December.
. . . . . . .2010. . . . . . .. 2012. . . . . . .2013. . .

(sources: indices of Victoria’s R/E board, Toronto’s R/E board)

We can safely assume that single family home prices in Saanich East fell more than the 10% that the local board’s frankenumber price index claims since real estate “professionals” have a vested interest in keeping house prices high.

House prices across Greater Toronto increased by 23% over the same period of time.

(Continued)

#12 Interstellar Old Yeller on 03.16.16 at 6:10 pm

Easy out, Jake: you need to be mobile to chase lucrative job opportunities. I assume, for the right price, the two of you could be lured away from Toronto. No sense buying a house if you might have to turn right around and sell it again (with the accompanying hassle and costs.)

#13 Victoria Real Estate Update on 03.16.16 at 6:12 pm

MORE OF THE SAME IN 2016

You may have read this recent “news” article that gave the impression that Vancouver techies are moving to Victoria and Kelowna where housing is cheaper and pushing house prices higher in Victoria.

In typical house pumping fashion, this “news” article provided no factual information to substantiate the claim that there has been an increase in the number of Vancouver techies moving to Victoria in recent months.

The article also gave the impression that Victoria’s tech industry has grown substantially in recent months, but no facts were provided to back that claim either.

The article ended by quoting a techie who had moved from Vancouver to Victoria in 2014 as saying, “I don’t know how many more good things I want to say about Victoria… Then more people will come and push housing prices up.”

Just like they did in 2010, right? Not.

The author is clearly house pumping by claiming (with no facts to support the claim) that there has recently been an increase in the number of techies leaving Vancouver and moving to Victoria and giving the impression that this will lead to higher house prices.

Sounds like 2010 in Victoria. We all know how that worked out.

This article is obviously one-sided, favouring rising house prices no matter what.

Let’s follow the author’s logic. If house prices are supposed to rise in Victoria with an increase in the number of techies moving here from Vancouver (no proof provided by the author to support this claim), then it’s logical that house prices in Vancouver will be falling as a result of losing techies to Victoria and other cities. Of course the author didn’t go there.

There was no mention either about the certainty of rising 5-year mortgage rates in Canada (beginning soon) and that house prices fall as rates rise.

These things just seem too factual for this article.

Market conditions can change quickly (think 2010). Victoria’s deep price bottom awaits.

#14 Freedom First on 03.16.16 at 6:12 pm

I hope everyone had a ssuper duper Alberta day today. I know I did. I feel like a Tulip in the spring. I love myself.
Freedom First.

#15 Interstellar Old Yeller on 03.16.16 at 6:12 pm

Also: have you tried getting her excited about a portfolio of financial assets?

#16 8102 on 03.16.16 at 6:13 pm

Once again, solid advice from the Man.

#17 Frank on 03.16.16 at 6:18 pm

You’re talking out of both sides of your mouth: rates are going up soon and the Canadian economy is crap, inflation is low. You can’t have it both ways.

The only threat to the Toronto real estate market is jobs and the Ontario jobs picture looks great.

Ever heard of the bond market? — Garth

#18 Caught In The Grip on 03.16.16 at 6:19 pm

I don’t get the GTA market. Insanity. Where is the $ coming from? Everything is going for above asking.

#19 Basil Fawlty on 03.16.16 at 6:20 pm

The Fed could not tighten. Get ready for QE to infinity.
Per the US Census Bureau; total business sales down 5% from July 2014 peak.

#20 Kidding, Right? on 03.16.16 at 6:21 pm

120K USD to 90k CAD?

I love my partner but if I faced that choice I would tell her, you come to Seattle instead because I’m not taking a pay cut larger than your entire take home pay.

FFS is this story even real, Garth? It doesn’t seem real. Seattle is one of the nicer places to live in the States, and house prices are low. What kind of moron won’t enjoy his 120k USD in a place where houses cost the same as some village in PEI?

#21 Fact Checker on 03.16.16 at 6:22 pm

Question on the $1.9 trillion of debt outstanding you refer to – is this mortgage debt or total consumer debt? The Bank of Canada’s website seems to say that this is $1.9 trillion CAD of aggregate “household credit” (http://credit.bankofcanada.ca/householdcredit), of which $1.3 trillion CAD is mortgage debt. As an interesting comparative datapoint, total US mortgage debt stands at $13.9 trillion (http://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/releases/mortoutstand/current.htm), so roughly 10x Canada’s without factoring in currency, which seems reasonable given relative population sizes.

Wouldn’t this imply on the aggregate that we are no worse off than our US cousins?

#22 Freedom First on 03.16.16 at 6:23 pm

#226 Freedom First

How can we tell? -Garth
…………………………………………………..

True enough Garth.

Easy to impersonate me. But I will always be #1 in my world . As hard as I try in my personal life, it is difficult to escape other’s jealousy and envy. The Socialists are everywhere in today’s world.

#23 lulu on 03.16.16 at 6:24 pm

Train is coming, Please stand behind the yellow line!
Train is coming, Please stand behind the yellow line!

Hold out, Jake, tell your girlie sit pretty and wait, the train is approaching the peak of the ride, it’s gonna fall fast and hard like no tomorrow. Keep saving and renting if you have to stay in the T dot, No one will buy in this crazy out of touch market. Rent a year or two if this craze continue, and you still able to put aside a good chunk of saving away and wait for the harvest.

Train is approaching! Passenger stand behind the yellow line.

#24 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.16.16 at 6:26 pm

To “sleepless in Seattle”.
You actually have to ask what to do after reading this blog?
Rent for at least two years.
If you both can still stand the sight( not to mention the smell, the uncapped toothpaste, nylons on the shower curtains, underwear on the lampshade…dont ask….Toronto’s blizzards, Toronto’s humidity, etc.,etc.,etc.) of each other an still want to “buy a house”.
Prices should have melted a tad by then.
Good luck

#25 Harry on 03.16.16 at 6:28 pm

No Jake,
stay in that country with gun culture, random shootings, massive inequality, poor social programs, and the Republican party.

#26 pathcontrolmonk on 03.16.16 at 6:28 pm

Jake, you seriously considering moving from SEA to YYZ? You are the breadwinner and you are going to take a 40% cut in pay to live in a fugly city where the cost of RE is double? You have to question the intelligence of your partner if she thinks that is a smart move for your collective future. Show her a remodeled Craftsman in Ballard or Green Lake for 650k, and she may change her mind.

#27 Joe on 03.16.16 at 6:30 pm

One word of advice for you Jake, especially with the coin you are pulling in: PRENUP!

#28 small minds on 03.16.16 at 6:32 pm

You guys are all sweating the small stuff and don’t see the tons of brick coming that changes everything as we know it in a few decades.

Professor Doctor Hugo De Garis on who Should Rule? Humans or Machines?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKTCQCSzf30

Ben Goertzel: Transitioning to a Post-Employment, Post-Scarcity, Post-Money Economy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=427hMX2LQqA

#29 Ronald on 03.16.16 at 6:36 pm

Jake – as someone in the opposite situation (guy from TO in Seattle) all I ask is: WHY??

Here’s what you get in Seattle:
-Higher salary
-In a better currency
-No state income tax, only federal
-Houses that are appreciating yet still cheaper than what they were 10 years ago instead of being up in unprecedented and dangerous levels
-Mortgage interest, property tax and even sales tax (!) deductible from federal income tax
-Growing tech sector with many great employers (MSFT, AMZN, EXPE) all actively fighting for your talent
-Legal weed
-All of the “outdoor lifestyle” stuff the Van people love to talk about, none of the crippling debt and taxes

What you get in TO:
-T2 and Wynn taxes pushing highest marginal rates above 52%
-Slowing economy, if not shrinking
-Better maternity leave I guess? Not that your future wife makes significant income and MSFT/EXPE/FB/NFLX just massively expanded their parental leave benefits, expect AMZN to follow
-A subway that works sometimes? Except that the Seattle light rail is literally opening two more major stops this month with more to follow.
-No socialists in city hall? Only Rob Ford.
-Free health care? Wait, you probably got that anyway through your employer that I will guess is AMZN
-Hotter politicians now that Rubio’s out?

You could pay for flights out here for all of your in-laws every year and still come out massively ahead. They will love it here in the summer.

#30 RWZM on 03.16.16 at 6:39 pm

My two biggest mistakes were (and continue to be) doing the wrong field of engineering and living in Canada.

With $120K USD salary at that age + your savings, you could basically come back here and retire before you even have kids…

#31 Mean Gene on 03.16.16 at 6:41 pm

Jake is going from making $157,000CAD in Seattle to max $100K in Canaduh… sounds like the skirt should move not him… Financially, working is the states would be the more intelligent choice.

Dump the broad and find someone else or get a dog.

#32 tundra pete on 03.16.16 at 6:42 pm

DELETED

#33 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.16.16 at 6:43 pm

@#151 Sally Turner re yesterdays “millenial slam”

Methinks thou doth protesth too much about thy millenials.
Take an english mint colonic and call Dr. Elevatorfartz in the “mourning”……..

#34 MoneyDriven on 03.16.16 at 6:46 pm

Simple have the gf move to Seattle and go to Yoga & Zumba classes all day, while you make more money in Seattle.
You can buy a house sooner, avoid the harsh winter and have a hot wife !
A bonus feature of this plan: Your future in-laws are in a different timezone.

#35 Gramps on 03.16.16 at 6:48 pm

Can’t stop staring at picture.
I can hear the chirping of the chicks and the excited kids showing all their friends in the background.
And the dog just being a dog.
Nothing better!

#36 Dr. Phil on 03.16.16 at 6:48 pm

Jake, listen to me very carefully.

You’re an IT guy. Like Mark. Or Smoking Idiot.

You are already practically undateable, just like those two losers who come to this blog to relieve their sexual tension from decades of being geek freaks.

The future does not look bright for IT guys like you, especially when it comes to women. At any given moment, you could be replaced by a robot who would be a lot smarter as well as more attractive to the opposite sex, and perform better in the sack as well.

IT guys should take the first woman to come along willing to put up with their pathetic realities, without exception.

If she happens to be your sister, like in Smoking Idiot’s case, just grin and bear it. You are lucky to get anyone. Love her and help get her teeth fixed, too.

So shut up. Buy the townhouse. Do whatever she wants.

And be very, very grateful.

#37 understood by few on 03.16.16 at 6:55 pm

#13 Victoria Real Estate Update
Victoria’s deep price bottom awaits.

——————-
Ha. What you think SFH are going to drop to 300K or some nonsense? Come on, put a number out there. What number are you waiting for?

You missed the most recent chance to buy relying on your stale data and not actually looking at individual sales. 2013-2014 was the time to pull the trigger. Now you have to wait out this current cycle (could be just the spring, could be another 4-5 years).

The big drop you are hoping for isn’t coming. After this current rally you’ll be lucky if the next correction is back to 2010 levels.

#38 Smartalox on 03.16.16 at 7:01 pm

If you’ve never lived in a city where you’re being re-located, better to rent before buying. Buying is such a big decision, and you can’t accurately survey properties, neighbourhoods, commutes, in a few short visits. Better to get a feel for the place on a low-risk basis, figure out what you’re going to want from any property that you purchase, and then make a concerted effort ‘on the ground’ to find as much of what you want as possible.

Of course, if your GF is Canadian, she might have grown up in Toronto, and have family (parents) there who are all ready to decide where you should live, and what you should live in. Heck, they’re probably ready to ‘help’ you pay for it.

If this is the case, ask yourself how comfortable you are signing up for a long list of life choices made by someone else. Also, expect a long life of abdicating decisions to that person, or those people (like where to get married, what to wear, whom to befriend). It may seem like the benefits outweigh the risks, but resentment can quickly add up.

Better to take these challenges on ‘as a team’ and with mutual give and take than simply fall for someone else’s lifestyle hook, line and sinker.

#39 NoName on 03.16.16 at 7:02 pm

#203 Smoking Man

I dont thik that i got it wrong. If he wins nothing major happens unless he runs a dictatorship, if losses he will be blamed for decimateing republicans as a party and unfortunatly it will be years before republicans can put them self together. Kind of like what happened here with pc, look what kind of gov we have provincialy because pc cant get it $#!+ together, and federaly we got our weather cruasader, because guy before him tought, dont know what he was thinking… that is why I dont think that it will be any diferent south of the boreder.

I wish someone would show this video to trupm supporters.
And this video to hillaris supporters.

#40 Freedom First on 03.16.16 at 7:07 pm

Jake

You are about to destroy your life. Keep your girlfriend. Don’t ever live with her. She and her family will control you forever. Keep total control of your life Jake. Thank me later. No charge. I’m living it. As always, my Freedom First.

ps. #14 Freedom First is an impostor.

#41 NoName on 03.16.16 at 7:11 pm

Link to 2nd video

https://youtu.be/IC4owhBrEtw

#42 Sixtyfourk on 03.16.16 at 7:13 pm

You are some kind of stupid if you leave Seattle with a $120k USD job for Toronto and a $90k CAD job.

#43 Doug t on 03.16.16 at 7:18 pm

Jake my boy it’s free advice day so lucky you. First put this crazy idea of marriage off for at least 4 years. Second do not move here – Toronto is a DUMP compared to Seattle (compared to anywhere practically). Third – travel my friend – get out there and see the world. And finally please vote for Trump – your country needs to destroy the Goldman Sachs Fascist control system that has cursed your people for decade – cheers and good luck

#44 Retired Boomer WI on 03.16.16 at 7:21 pm

Take a tip from an old goat, Jake. Follow your dads, but don’t buy. The house, I mean… or, townhouse.

Enjoy Toronto, great city. Enjoy the lady, too. Rent have fun, watch the exploding, soon to be imploding market.

If things are still sweet at 30, well reassess the situation. Seattle isn’t a bad town, a bit moldy, but there is way more to life than you can see presently.

rent, save, love… then reassess. ok kid, do your thing!

#45 Retired Boomer WI on 03.16.16 at 7:21 pm

…”follow your nads. dam auto correct…

#46 Millmech on 03.16.16 at 7:23 pm

Wow
Taking a $2,000,000 cut In pay lifetime for her.Dont worry have a few kids,buy a big house with meddling/pressuring inlaws nearby telling you how to live,get sick and tired of married life and pay out another $2,000,000 for spousal and child support and “her”house.When sitting down to a poker game and your wondering who the mark is,it’s you.

#47 Sheane Wallace on 03.16.16 at 7:23 pm

http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKCN0VX1KT

#48 common sense on 03.16.16 at 7:24 pm

Buy her the damm house? Why not?

Just about everything is in a huge bubble, there is no true price discovery and the leaders of the Financial free world, the US FED are totally out to lunch. 100% Nuts.

Enjoy it while you can and live for today because when it finally blows it will be a lonnnnnnnnnnnnng time til the next party like we’ve been having the past 7 plus years.

A .25% raise and again they are gun shy? Aloha middle class…be upper or lower or pay for everyone.

Good Luck all….

#49 Siva on 03.16.16 at 7:24 pm

I am seeing lot of ads for Remax. There were none few years ago. Sign of things to come?

Btw why would anyone move from Seattle to Toronto? Please don’t.

#50 jay on 03.16.16 at 7:24 pm

Don’t forget Jake will also get $1.15 litre gas, $4.00 loaf of bread ,$1,500.00 car insurance, etc etc .That’s here in Van.

#51 Grey Dog on 03.16.16 at 7:25 pm

Dear Jake,
Why are you clipping your wings financially and professionally to come to Cananda….my goodness, you are living the dream, why get employment in Canada where you may not be challenged and have the career advancement opportunities…no brainer….your wife needs to move to the States with you.

If she cannot leave her family….you have much BIGGER PROBLEMS you really need to look at.

Seattle gets a lot of rain days and I know my husband,s California associates IEC and IECEE were warned resettling from California your spouse will NOT LIKE Seattle, but heck your future wife is Canadian, she will adapt easily to Seattle.

Do the math…your American income makes up for her measily Canadian income…

My fortune cookie advice for you…You really need to do a much better analysis of where the family of you and your lady NEED to be.

If for some bizarre chance you choose Canada….Toronto…you don’t know where you will be working, Toronto,s commute times can be horrendous, why by a townhouse before you know where you will be working?

#52 A Yank in BC on 03.16.16 at 7:27 pm

Washington State has no income tax, and sales tax is only 8%. The scenery and climate is beautiful. C’mon Jake. Be serious with us.

#53 New Canadian on 03.16.16 at 7:27 pm

#195 bdy sktn on 03.16.16 at 12:23 pm
35 New Canadian on 03.15.16 at 6:55 pm
,,,,,,,,,,
Nice story but you save approx 30k for maybe 10 years and have a 1.3m nw?
Did you leave out the part about the inheritance or lottery win?
———————————————————
New Canadian said they have been renting for 2 decades and they are in their late 30s. If they saved $37K per year for 15 years with an 8% return rate it works out to $1M. So, this is entirely doable. It’s not easy but it’s possible – event in Canada.

/////

Re NW, there is nothing magic about it, it is a result of simple dollar cost averaging into growth equities over more than 15 years with a high savings rate at the time when we did not have children yet. I actually started by individually picking up stocks in my early 20s, committed all the possible and impossible behavioral sins of an average investor (I highly recommend books and even articles by Tversky and/or Kahneman), and luckily discovered low cost ETFs early on into my investing. Also we arrived into Canada with USD denominated portfolio and kept it that way, figures provided here were in CAD. As I still know little about the Canadian investment space, I have very little exposure to it, except for the fixed income, which is all levered in CAD.

But what is really striking is that even if we had 0 NW, we could still have a very decent family life on quite low salaries by simply renting a nice apartment / townhouse in good neighborhoods which are readily available for about CAD1,000 + hydro .

#54 cto on 03.16.16 at 7:27 pm

Holy cow Jake. Tell her you will buy a nice house in Seattle. Why would anyone want to come and live in this god forsaken city (toronto) is beyond me.
Seattle has a future and a nice ocean. To me toronto is headed off the cliff…

#55 Smoking Man's Old Man on 03.16.16 at 7:34 pm

My first wife got a condo after things fell apart (paid for by me)

The second (common law) got a four bedroom all brick house (paid for by me)

If you enjoy working hard to set women up with nice things. Ignore all of Garth’s advice and buy the place. Your young dumb and full of cum. So you’ll probably have to learn the hard way like most of us…

#56 JimNS on 03.16.16 at 7:36 pm

Garth-you should be warning US citizens, who may not be aware of the tax laws for US citizens living outside the US, about the IRS and a TFSA. Growth is taxed and withdrawals are taxed and depending on what is owned there maybe additional reporting requirements.

#57 UVIC ELEC on 03.16.16 at 7:41 pm

#29 RWZM

What kind of engineering are you in that isn’t software?

I’m an electrical (still student) in Victoria, and share the same sentiment often; that SENGies have it made!

#58 Cici on 03.16.16 at 7:41 pm

JAKE, please slow down…I’m so worried about the decision your about to make that I couldn’t even finish reading the blog.

OK, listen to this before you jump off the cliff:

You make $120 US.
She makes $45 CAD.

Her salary is the shits; your salary is incredibly good (around $157,500 CAD).

And you want to move to Toronto? Could you not find love in Seattle? If not, why don’t you get the girl to move to Seattle? Here are excellent reasons why:

– You’ll both be richer
– House prices are lower
– The cost of living is lower
– The climate is better

Tell her that, and show her photos. Tell her she can grow organic vegetables for your future babies year-round. Heck, tell her she can be a stay-at-home mom (you’d actually be able to afford that possibility).

If she says NO, she is either dense or just using you to get into the property game (you know, find a nice guy with a good salary on the Internet, make him believe that he’s the only one for you, get him to buy you a house, leave him a few years later, get half the house with no effort (required), and him…who cares? He can stay or go. Maybe I’m wrong (hope so for your sake), but I still say there’s a very high chance you could be putting your future on the line.

At the very least, if you really must go through with this relationship and move, tell the parents to blow off and mind their own business about housing. RENT for at least three years to see where the relationship is going, and don’t have babies right away. And marriage…really? Do you not know that half of everything you’ve got is going to be hers as soon as you put that ring on her finger?

If she and her parents don’t get this and keep putting on the pressure, you may want to call the whole thing off. And/or tell them that if the house is so important, they should buy it for her, and leave you out of it.

Anyways, hope you know her well, and have at least been “dating” for a long time. If not, break the vows and call the suicide hotline (866-4CRISIS (427-4747).

#59 Ray Skunk on 03.16.16 at 7:42 pm

#41

You are some kind of stupid if you leave Seattle with a $120k USD job for Toronto and a $90k CAD job.

One billion percent this.

Has Jake looked into income taxes here? Oh, and HST. And the health premium. And hydro. Don’t forget ever-increasing property taxes. Oh yeah, not to mention upcoming delights such as carbon tax, cap-and-trade, enhanced CPP, ORPP, capital gains tax increase, HOT lanes, grocery and communication duopolies, cartels controlling food staples such as dairy. Those are just the ones off the top of my head.

I’d be more than happy to take his place in Seattle if we could undertake a citizenship trade. Sounds like a hellhole compared to the utopia we have here.

#60 MoneyMyHoney on 03.16.16 at 7:47 pm

What market RISK? What interest rate hike?
You have been dishing out market RISK and interest rate hike for the past 7 years. Forget interest rate hike, it is not going to happen.

The only valid risk is the possibility of a divorce.

#61 Yelen speak.... on 03.16.16 at 7:49 pm

Janet Yelen’s response to Liesman’s question
re: Fed Credibility;

“Well, let me start — let me start with the question of the Fed’s credibility. And you used the word “promises” in connection with that. And as I tried to emphasize in my opening statement, the paths that the participants project for the federal funds rate and how it will evolve are not a pre-set plan or commitment or promise of the committee. Indeed, they are not even — the median should not be interpreted as a committee-endorsed forecast. And there’s a lot of uncertainty around each participant’s projection. And they will evolve. Those assessments of appropriate policy are completely contingent on each participant’s forecasts of the economy and how economic events will unfold. And they are, of course, uncertain. And you should fully expect that forecasts for the appropriate path of policy on the part of all participants will evolve over time as shocks, positive or negative, hit the economy that alter those forecasts. So, you have seen a shift this time in most participants’ assessments of the appropriate path for policy. And as I tried to indicate, I think that largely reflects a somewhat slower projected path for global growth — for growth in the global economy outside the United States, and for some tightening in credit conditions in the form of an increase in spreads. And those changes in financial conditions and in the path of the global economy have induced changes in the assessment of individual participants in what path is appropriate to achieve our objectives. So that’s what you see — that’s what you see now.”

you’re a smart guy GT, can you expain what she said?

#62 Dee on 03.16.16 at 7:52 pm

Jake — American immigrant (now dual citizen) tech worker living in Toronto here, who also used to work in Seattle.

Do -not- buy property here right out of the gate. Garth’s reasons all make sense in terms of markets and all, but I’d also add: the process for things like permanent residency through marriage OR through work (whichever way you go) are neither as easy nor as quick as they used to be. And the economy here is kind of butts right now, too. You’ll probably find jobs, but the pay isn’t great and the commute might be nightmarish. And who knows how stable they are.

Stay liquid and mobile. Even if there’s a 100% chance your relationship works out (which there never is, but everyone thinks there is, so let’s go with that), you may have to move for work. I did; I started in Vancouver and moved to Toronto when Vancouver dried up.

The number one thing you need in order to succeed as an immigrant is an ability to roll with things. Part of being an immigrant means not having as much freedom of choice, in a lot of ways, as you’re used to.

When you have the permanent resident card in your hand, feel free re-assess the question of rent vs own and see what makes sense for you. The world may look very different by then.

And good luck! It’s a long journey, but Toronto, and Canada, are worth it.

#63 Mike C on 03.16.16 at 7:53 pm

“We’re not at the beginning of a buy-now-or-buy-never escalation”

No not at all. We are just a lot closer to buy-now-or-rent-forever.

#64 SWL1976 on 03.16.16 at 7:55 pm

Wow!!!! She must be one helluva catch to peel you away from a sweet gig in Seattle to settle in the big smoke Toronto

Hope you know what you’re getting into

Good luck

#65 MF on 03.16.16 at 7:58 pm

Obviously everyone is telling Jake to stay in Seattle, but we have to remember he is in love. Young guys in love will do anything for their girls so I understand why he would consider moving here to the GTA for her.

2 things:

A) If you are going to make this commitment, you better be sure she is a real rocket. Think past the immediate physical, which you will 1000% get bored of after about a year, and try to objectively see if she is wife material. You were usually know deep down inside if this is true (but not always). If she is native to Toronto you have to be careful. Ideal mates are from East Europe, South East Asia and South America.

2) Forget Toronto real estate. It’s a bubbling cauldron of speculation based off of nothing. Rent and enjoy it all collapse.

MF

#66 IKnow on 03.16.16 at 8:01 pm

Dear Victoria real estates update,

BC single family house prices are primarily driven by speculative demands by ethnic Chinese (foreign or local).
Local Canadians may also in turn participate in such speculation.

So Victoria house prices may benefit from some far range diffusion effect, rubbing off of the lottery winnings enjoyed by some lucky Vancouverites.

I appreciate your effort to denounce the pumping by your local Island realtors.

#67 MF on 03.16.16 at 8:05 pm

#48 common sense on 03.16.16 at 7:24 pm

“Buy her the damm house? Why not?

Just about everything is in a huge bubble, there is no true price discovery and the leaders of the Financial free world, the US FED are totally out to lunch. 100% Nuts.

Enjoy it while you can and live for today because when it finally blows it will be a lonnnnnnnnnnnnng time til the next party like we’ve been having the past 7 plus years.

A .25% raise and again they are gun shy? Aloha middle class…be upper or lower or pay for everyone.”

-I now agree with this. The FED has almost zero credibility left and is out of ammunition, just like all central bankers and their failed policies. Look at how dead the market is. After Yellen cited “global risks” the equity markets rallied. Lol laughable. They got their “stimulus” so green light. To me, that “stimulus” sounds like the one that automatic ventilators provide for patients unable to breath/live on their own.

MF

#68 Mark on 03.16.16 at 8:05 pm

Easy for this guy to get a job? Hardly. Software pay in Canada is low, and that’s for a reason. Realistically, if he can find a job (and that’s a big “if”), he’s looking at a roughly 50% cut in compensation going from the US to Canada. Even $90k is wildly optimistic for most software people in Canada.

“I’m an electrical (still student) in Victoria, and share the same sentiment often; that SENGies have it made!”

My condolences. Its a wasteland out there. The communications/IT/controls side of things is relatively dead on both sides of the border, and even more traditional electrical stuff is pretty dead with a lot of the short-medium term demand in the past decade driven by OHS requirements around “arc flash”

Even software isn’t doing all that well. We hear of the $120k packages, but there are typically hundreds of applicants for each job. Its more of the luck of the draw finding a job in the software sector, than it is of skill. Also, if history is any indication, once a company finds out that the individual has been working for $120k (or $155k if translated back to CAD$), most Canadian firms, accustomed to hiring people at a similar career/skill level for half price will consider such a candidate (“too expensive”, “will just leave once a better opportunity comes along”, etc.)

Its sort of a lot like the Vancouver housing sector. The Realtors are quick to overstate a few random occurrences of transactions that go for big increases, particularly at the very high end, in a small handful of neighbourhoods, but they’re largely silent on the majority of houses which are not experiencing any increase in value.

. If house prices are supposed to rise in Victoria with an increase in the number of techies moving here from Vancouver

Techies are practically a non-factor in either Victoria or Vancouver. May as well go back to talking about those mythical Chinese with suitcases of cash. Often talked about, but rarely, if ever seen.

Growing tech sector with many great employers (MSFT, AMZN, EXPE) all actively fighting for your talent

If by ‘fighting’ you mean receiving a thousand resumes per position advertised, and ignoring 990 of them, I agree.

#69 Can we trade? on 03.16.16 at 8:08 pm

I would move to Seattle or Portland in a heartbeat and i am in Portland. You can drive to California ffs. 5 hour flight to Hawaii where u have USA hospitals not the all you can eat the canadians are so proud to go to.
Don’t come here trudeau utopia is worse than trump’s

#70 understood by few on 03.16.16 at 8:09 pm

@#57 UVIC ELEC

Learn to code. As in really learn to code. Someone that can do end to end hardware->firmware->software is indispensable. Someone has to be able to:

1. determine if it was the outsourced hardware that’s at fault (oops, data corruption due to poor multi-layer layout.. send it back for a redesign)
2. Fix the garbage firmware
3. Code against patched firmware and iterate between this and fixing the firmware (to code around issues that got though on the production board)

Limited market, but since you can code you can always take a pure coding job too. Don’t have to be SEng to get a coding job and in my opinion you’ll have a better breadth of knowledge. I know a few EEs and CEs that are great coders. Don’t limit yourself to what you are trained in.

#71 A belieber on 03.16.16 at 8:10 pm

Jake, forget about asking these wrinklies for advice. here’s what you do buddy.

Step 1) download this thing called Tinder
Step 2) limit search radius to 50mi of Seattle
Step 3) write in bio: “27. $120k Salary. 6 figure net worth”
Step 4) ??????
Step 5) Profit

jeez kids these days. think the techies would know about tinder. In a few months you won’t even remember that girls name. You can thank me when you’re swimming in…………a very nice pool.

#72 Bat Flipper on 03.16.16 at 8:12 pm

There are women everywhere in all different shapes and sizes. You really don’t need to move half way across the country for one and especially don’t need to change countries. Literally, there are billions of women…

If this one don’t fit your lifestyle, there are more available at the touch of a button on your phone…

#73 NTH on 03.16.16 at 8:18 pm

Jake, if your sweetheart is at all sensible she will at least consider a trial move to Seattle. Perhaps you can pitch that option & be sure she falls hard for the city…..every decision has a currency and a ‘price’ so make damn sure Seattle blows TO out of the water. Shouldn’t be too hard, TO is blah (at best) ;-). If her family is the barrier, fly them in and wine them-dine them like they’ve never known before….it’s amazing what folks will do for free food!
Work It.

Good luck to you both!!

Not Tonight Honey

#74 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 03.16.16 at 8:24 pm

“While the award-winning macroeconomists who come here don’t buy it, it appears the Fed will be raising rates twice this year, and the Bank of Canada will follow in due course.”
____________________________________________

The problem is that the actual “award” winning macro economists have no clue why their policies are failing the real economy. In December they said four more raises in 2016, 10 weeks later their dot plot thickens to only two raises. Not exactly the utopian economy you mentioned yesterday. Wait another 10 or 20 weeks and we should be down to a measly raise this year.

The US economy is a pig with lipstick. Gold and the CAD$ are catching on to this. The voters down south, both Republican and Dems are lashing out as they sense the narrative unravel.

If the facts change (and they have) do you, sir, change your tune?

The bond market and the housing market are two sides of the same coin, both bubbles. The bond market in many western countries are not only at multi decade extremes (Canada, US etc…) but are at mutii century extremes (Germany, Japan etc…)!! Which means every time you correctly note that real estate is in a bubble, that a lot of the “safe stuff” as you call it, is also in a bubble…

#75 Rexx Rock on 03.16.16 at 8:31 pm

Come to Victoria,its a tech town with lots of high paying jobs.Get a nice house for over $600,000.Toronto sucks and the weather is terrible.Everybody wants to come to Victoria,the pride of Canada.

Bonus reason: when you die, nobody notices. — Garth

#76 learningfromyou on 03.16.16 at 8:31 pm

So you ask for ask for advices.

1-The salary you will make in Canada will be known when you’ll search and get a job, not what you think it will be.

2- >I’m being pressured by family/girlfriend
If the girlfriend’s family influence is enough to change your path in life then go to the gym and grow and be a man.

3-If she really love’s you and mathematically speaking will be better for you in US, then why you come here and specially in one of the priciest cities with crazy expenses in rent, car insurance and house prices?

4-I used to live in Toronto before, I’m also a computer analyst and developer, I moved from that city because I did not find the right place for me (It does not have to be your destiny if you come)

5-Make conscious decisions and live with its results ( even if it implies dumping her)

#77 Smoking Man on 03.16.16 at 8:33 pm

Dr. Phil and James

Have a sceen in my book dedicated to angry lesbians.
You two will enjoy it.

#78 Tony on 03.16.16 at 8:34 pm

Jake will find out he can’t even get a job at McDonald’s in Toronto. I wonder who fed him the line about how easy it is to get a job here?

#79 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.16.16 at 8:34 pm

“I’m a 27 year old software engineer in Seattle with girlfriend (soon to be wife) in Toronto. My salary is $120k USD/yr and girlfriend’s is 45k CAD/yr. Thanks to my great job and frugal ways, I’ve been able to accrue $120,000 CAD. No other debt, no car. My girlfriend has around $60,000 CAD plus we have around $50k in cash in a savings account.

thumbs up to jake and his gf. tech is an awesome profession. amazing savings for someone so young. congratulations!

#80 pathcontrolmonk on 03.16.16 at 8:36 pm

#29 Ronald

Yep, what you said + not only is weed legal, but beer is cheaper, better and in greater variety.

…seems there are a lot of GT/GF followers living in Seattle, go figure!

#81 vb on 03.16.16 at 8:36 pm

Jake don’t do it !

Rent and try it. Invest your money in the mean time. Double land transfer tax alone is a big enough slap to not want to buy. Get that rent paid for by investing in monthly paying ETF’s, REIT’s etc… thats what I do.

Good luck.

#82 waiting on the westcoast on 03.16.16 at 8:36 pm

#13 VREU – Re: Tech scene growing in Victoria

The article is accurate. My wife and I started looking at the Island for farmland a couple of years ago so I started snooping around the tech scene (for Angel investing) and the growth has been solid. I was on a recent tour with Angel Investors and Venture Capitalists from around the NW ( and as far away as LA and Toronto) in Victoria. Lots of companies, incubators, and improving high end talent to scale the businesses around.

In the past, a start-up from Victoria would typically migrate to Vancouver as it started to grow. Now they are staying put and getting people to move over there. Easy sell for many young software developers to make the move and older exec types too.

I agree with some of the other posters. The market is improving to a minor degree in Victoria (even though prices are very high) so I would suggest changing your tack to how crazy people are to buy rather than defending a position that is not tenable. Otherwise, you begin to sound like a certain robust posting troll who has taken the name of a saint… ;-)

#83 common sense on 03.16.16 at 8:37 pm

#67 MF and #74 Rock Beats Paper

Glad someone else sees this too…

I doubt the FED will NEVER raise the rates again.

The entire globe is in a deflationary slow free fall and the ONLY reason for the DEC hike was to show a shred of credibility….Today the FED had all the reasons in the world to raise as their “Data dependent” stats were met and didn’t.

Now today Japan’s exports are falling again, basically wiping out any gain from going NIRP.

Basically there is no real GROWTH out there, especially with such huge debt levels especially in this country.

Invest in essentials of life and hope whoever is debt free or on a good pension can pay for them, as most everyone else is paying off debt and has near to none extra disposable income….

Where else can you really put your money? GOLD?

#84 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.16.16 at 8:38 pm

I don’t get the GTA market. Insanity. Where is the $ coming from? Everything is going for above asking.

don’t try understanding Vancouver and Toronto real estate prices. just accept that they are rising with no basis in reality. and then run away

#85 Smoking Man on 03.16.16 at 8:40 pm

Jake. Got news for you sun shine. It’s impossible to keep a woman satisfied and happy over the long hall.

Only thing you can hope for is respect. This is how you get it.

There’s an old saying, let your woman see you lose your shit, grab a random cat, bite off its head. Show her what happens when you are pissed.. She will never mess with you going forward.

In my case Mr Smoking Man, well , she got to the cat before I did.

#86 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.16.16 at 8:42 pm

jake shouldn’t come to Toronto. I agree.

#87 AK on 03.16.16 at 8:42 pm

#61 Yelen speak…. on 03.16.16 at 7:49 pm
Janet Yelen’s response to Liesman’s question
re: Fed Credibility;

“you’re a smart guy GT, can you expain what she said?”
====================================

She was trying to say: “Next question please”….

#88 economictsunami on 03.16.16 at 8:44 pm

Notwithstanding the Fed’s ever more negatively portrayed global/ domestic economic forecasting, the markets have basically told the Fed only two well telegraphed hikes can be tolerated. (As little as 3 months ago 4 hikes were being considered.)

FED KEEPS KEY RATES UNCHANGED; FORESEES FEWER HIKES IN 2016

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_FEDERAL_RESERVE?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2016-03-16-17-24-10

Will the BoC raise rates in the face of an economy soon to be running mostly on tax payer funded stimulus and low rates; as consumers appear to be close to total debt saturation?

Part-time employment gains in Canada mask a larger problem

http://tgam.ca/EOGa

Not if the BoC also remains “data dependent”…

#89 AK on 03.16.16 at 8:45 pm

“If you truly love this girl, J, do the right thing. Make her bitterly disappointed. We’re right behind you.”
===================================

The best thing for Jake is to stay single…

#90 Dennis Vain on 03.16.16 at 8:51 pm

Nut Job Trudeau Liberals plan to spend more on ‘social infrastructure’ than any other project with the massive 30 +++ Billion dollar deficit.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/canadian-pension-funds-urge-trudeau-to-think-big-on-infrastructure-were-looking-for-projects-of-scale

That means useless appointments to the civil service for people who aren’t otherwise employable. Pandering for votes among the immigrants by Trudeau Liberals”? Say it ain’t so. The apple doesn’t fall far from the tree. The Trudeau Liberals using population as a weapon against democracy, what a concept.

#91 45north on 03.16.16 at 8:55 pm

I’m a 27 year old software engineer in Seattle with girlfriend (soon to be wife) in Toronto.

Jake let’s talk job first and marriage second

corporate culture is huge. huge. I’m thinking corporate culture in Seattle is completely different than Toronto. I’m thinking ManuLife. Like everything you like and believe in is not going to be there in Toronto. Now if you’re in Toronto for a year it won’t kill you but at the end of the year you want your options open.

In a marriage the man adopts the wife’s family or more accurately they adopt him. So you move to Toronto. You have supper with her parents, you hang out with her brothers and sisters. This is a good thing but it doesn’t mean that you buy a house there.

#92 Greg Hauck on 03.16.16 at 8:58 pm

It’s no longer anecdotal here in Calgary. I get mailed new house listings near downtown because I’m planning on upsizing once the market drops enough (20% is my goal).

Yesterday was the first update I received with no new listings, just a collection of people freaking out that nothing has sold in 60 days and price dropping.

MLS#: C4015705 Price: $699,900
Price Reduced Status: Active
72 GLAMORGAN DR SW
Beds: 6 Baths: F:3 H:1

MLS#: C4040636 Price: $679,900
Price Reduced Status: Active
3517 1 ST NW
Beds: 4 Baths: F:3 H:1

MLS#: C4040746 Price: $745,000
Price Reduced Status: Active
1776 6 AV NW
Beds: 3 Baths: F:3 H:1

MLS#: C4046714 Price: $779,900
Price Reduced Status: Active
2013 20 AV SW
Beds: 4 Baths: F:2 H:1

#93 retired Boomer WI on 03.16.16 at 9:03 pm

Jake, Now that I’ve had a cold shower, and have evaluated your situation in a more serene light…

Are you NUTS?

Leaving a 120K job in Seattle for an as yet unknown position in Toronto for maybe 90K.

The lady. Makes 45K Cdn. in Toronto, that pay for your parking, and gym membership there.

Toronto is a ‘4’ city. Seattle is a ‘9’ on my scale. Having been to both, and spent time in each, why bother with TO? While Canadian money is more colorful, it isn’t worth much, they tax the shit out of you, and Canadians, while polite, are a tad vacuous. (Not all, but a good many).

If the lady is worth keeping, she is worth keeping in Seattle. If she won’t some to Seattle… my guard goes up.

Sorry, pal seen this movie played out many times in the past. You’re trading a great city for a mediocre one. Decent living, for a basic existence. Sure, the lass is everything you ever wanted… the life may not be.

If you do go to the Big Smoke don’t buy. Rent. At 27 too many changes, hormones, and life gets in the way.

Good Luck Jake… you’ll probably need it.

#94 hope & ruin on 03.16.16 at 9:04 pm

#67 MF on 03.16.16 at 8:05 pm

-I now agree with this. The FED has almost zero credibility left and is out of ammunition, just like all central bankers and their failed policies. Look at how dead the market is. After Yellen cited “global risks” the equity markets rallied. Lol laughable. They got their “stimulus” so green light. To me, that “stimulus” sounds like the one that automatic ventilators provide for patients unable to breath/live on their own.
______________________________

If I didn’t know better I’d say you’ve been watching a lot of peter schiff videos. Be honest. Is that it?

Either way I’m interested in some new reading materials. What do ya got?

#95 Washed Up and Off Topic on 03.16.16 at 9:09 pm

Jake:

YOLO. Pedal to the metal. Your gal pal could have been from Fort McMurray. Count your blessings.

Garth:

Red letter day here in The Mac. Found myself at a business session in the building that houses the Wood Buffalo Regional Library. I dropped in and some of your books had been returned so I borrowed 2 of them. I think I will steal them.

#96 Mark on 03.16.16 at 9:11 pm

“Someone that can do end to end hardware->firmware->software is indispensable. “

Good theory, but in practice, there’s not that much demand for those types. Processors are now a lot more powerful, entire SoC’s are a few bucks. What used to be a case of implementing firmware down to the bare metal, even relatively low-power/light weight ’embedded’ applications, is now a matter of simply getting the Linux kernel running on something, and leveraging that codebase using fairly routine system calls. Few low-level skills really required there. There are many, many software engineers, if not most, who will go their entire careers not even writing a single line of assembly or machine code professionally. Even 20 years ago, this was an almost unthinkable concept.

In addition, basically there’s only ~2 architectures really in use these days of any significance. x64 and ARM. The vendors very enthusiastically provide most of the low level code needed. Not only is it silly to try and re-invent the wheel in most cases, but it is very unlikely that any individual or even small team effort could improve meaningfully on the low-level codebases available in the public domain for those platforms.

But enough about that. Only a relatively small fraction of the people who work for tech companies are actually engineers or technical people. Most are marketing, sales, etc. Even Google has a lower than 1:5 engineer ratio (1 engineer for every 5 non-engineers), and they’re considered one of the most engineer-heavy companies around (often to the detriment of their paid customer base!). Why not go to HR and ask that they give (err, “strongly consider”) the girlfriend/wife for a job in Seattle? I didn’t see what her occupation is/was, but surely there’s gotta be something she can do for a tech behemoth?

#97 X on 03.16.16 at 9:13 pm

If the US Fed raises a quarter point in (say) June and December, the bond market takes mortgages higher.

How much of a spread would the BoC need, even with a crappy economy, to be forced to start raising their own lending rates? Yes, employment, inflation, the dollar are all factors as well…..but simply put…how long can they keep rates low, when the US slowly raises, that is a lot of time for investment $ to flow out of Canada.

#98 Victoria Real Estate Update on 03.16.16 at 9:15 pm

# 82 waiting on the west coast

Exactly what did I write that you think needs changing? Please procide specific quotes.

Otherwise you’ll either sound like you can’t read or you are making things up.

You provided no quotes in your comment, only accusations that are false.

What exactly is accurate about the article? This would involve statements from the article that are backed by facts. Again, I don’t think you read carefully enough but were quick to post a comment aimed at making me look bad.

I expect you to be able to answer my questions and your replies willl need exact quotes, otherwise you will sound like some of the other angry Victoria posters who apparently can’t read.

What have you got?

#99 Too good not to share on 03.16.16 at 9:16 pm

#230 Freedom First on 03.16.16 at 5:40 pm

Any other posts in my name other than #10 are Dickhead impostors.

How can we tell? — Garth

#100 Estrella on 03.16.16 at 9:23 pm

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-16/canada-s-new-hope

Trudeau is being compared to john Kennedy (above). Gag.

He wants Canada to have a seat with the UN, but in 2021 the question is will he still be around?

I recall Robespeire did not end too well…

#101 Smoking Man on 03.16.16 at 9:28 pm

The Left Brain vs the Right Brain.

The Left Brain spent to many years getting schooled, see itself as a victim.

Has no real knowledge on how to get rich, so it makes the rich it mortal enemy. Rather than opening its eyes, and ears and learn from the ones that do it, they have hallucinations that anyone who has money cheated, justifying there lack of earning knowledge and feeling of stupity.

The left brain embraces social issues, lets face it, it’s lonely to be the only loser in the room, this beast needs community because it can’t survive as an individual.

The left brain is terrified of competion and risk, horrified of placing a bet and losing in front of the community further instilling the self loathing of the brain itself.

Its biggest fear is being judged negatively by the fellow loser left brained. The only time it’s brave is in large mobs with fellow losers. Its good at name calling a group shaming. Other than that, its pretty much useless.

Now The Right Brain

The Right Brain, well it’s a bit of a cowboy. A Total individual and its only fear is giving up trying to hit the jackpot after several attempts and failures.

The Right brain gives no shit about what anyone thinks of it. Doesn’t have time actually, as it is always trying new things for that elusive jackpot the left brain is so terrified of.

The right brain is a good brain, it always tries to help the left brain, but the left brain is too dip shit stupid to even see it. How can it, 16 years of schooling?

The right brain gives up trying to help the left, so it does what it can and just creates new companies, pays them crumbs and hopes one day the moron will grow a right brain, come up with an idea and right brain can partner with and share the bounty.

Go Trump

#102 SI2K on 03.16.16 at 9:36 pm

Couples like this are currently leaving Toronto in droves, especially if they have kids or even a couple dogs. You can’t hack it here in any kind of comfort on that money. Move to Hamilton, Waterloo, or Guelph near a Go train, or have her come to the U.S.. Especially with the exchange rate the way it is, you’ll be taking a massive salary cut just on the .75 dollar. Trust me, Spouse and I have been here in downtown Toronto 17 & 20 years, since we were in our 20s. The time to make the move to Toronto and make a comfy, techie, bohemian lifestyle was in 1997. It’s intolerable here for us now. The live music venues are all ripped out, you can’t get a seat at a cafe, nothing but condos in their place. No one we know in IT lives in the core anymore. They all commute, and we’re about to join them.

#103 lee on 03.16.16 at 9:37 pm

Personally I think Jake is a stooge. With the exchange rate he is taking about a 60 percent pay cut. I hope he moves up the pay scale ladder quickly. I understand moving up in IT is quite tough especially in terms of salary. They say you’re dead at thirty in that business because things change so fast everyone is always looking for recent grads since the skill set they graduate with is almost as good as a veteran’s. I think his story is a tad embellished. Are the savings all in a 401k or whatver they call an RRSP, in which case it’s really only half whathesays. And is 120 K his salary or an unusually high earning year where he was bonuses up? He seems to be making an odd decision!

#104 Chris on 03.16.16 at 9:43 pm

Get her to move to SEA. No one should trade Dick’s burgers for shoveling brown slush half the year.

#105 Freedom First on 03.16.16 at 9:47 pm

#46 Millmech

Well said. You are brilliant.

#106 Mark on 03.16.16 at 9:48 pm

“How much of a spread would the BoC need, even with a crappy economy, to be forced to start raising their own lending rates? Yes, employment, inflation, the dollar are all factors as well…..but simply put…how long can they keep rates low, when the US slowly raises, that is a lot of time for investment $ to flow out of Canada.”

The mistake is thinking that money simply chases “higher interest”. If that were the case, then the banana republics with their double-digit “rates of interest” would be attracting capital from around the world. If anything, a higher interest rate (and the necessity thereof) is a signal of inflation and currency weakening in an economy. Capital has a tendency to chase relative states of monetary stability (ie: low rates, but not necessarily negative rates), rather than merely migrate to the highest rate possible.

An investor in CAD$ obligations, particularly government-backed ones, can look forward to a significant amount of price stability, if not deflation in Canada’s economy as the RE bubble continues its deflation and consumer demand (ie: imports) are truncated. The sort of appreciation in the CAD$ implied by such deflation can easily overwhelm even 100-200bp of spread between Fed Funds and BoC’s policy target. After all, if we accept that the long-term equilibrium for the CAD$/USD$ pair is around par, and undershoot has occurred down to $0.63, we must accept that, at some point in the overall long-term economic cycle, there must be overshoot — ie: the CAD$ being “worth” $1.58 USD$ at some point.

IMHO, CAD$ rates will be low, very low, until much of the housing sectors’ excess capacity is liquidated through price reductions and the resulting insolvencies. In previous notes, I stated that the BoC probably will be “on hold” with future rate cuts until the CAD$/USD$ pair is back at $1.25 or so. That level is now starting to come into view, with the Canadian housing market continuing to weaken in the coming quarters and years.

#107 Smoking Man on 03.16.16 at 9:49 pm

James:

I have noticed a relentless attack on me, the idiot, the joking man. There is a website, google it. You cut and paste sentences and it can determine the gender of the writer. Every time I cut and paste your insults, it returns Jamie every time.

What’s going on toots, tell me about the patriarchy, those evil animal white men who so hurt you.

Real dudes don’t type like you. We aint wired like that.
Give it up, You a pal of Kathleen’s wife, or are you Kathleen’s wife?.

People on twitter tell me Kathleen’s wife is really pissed at me and shes going to get me.

The right minded want to know.

Notice how this dude never attacks you personally. Read my right brain essay and learn wee grasshopper.

I love every one, but hate stupid ideas.

#108 Panhead on 03.16.16 at 9:50 pm

Jake: why don’t you move up to Vancouver and really get screwed?

#109 cramar on 03.16.16 at 9:52 pm

Jake, you need a dose of reality. Seriously! RETHINK your plans!

Stay in Seattle. Do NOT move to Toronto (you will regret it financially)! Marry the girl. As your wife, take her to Seattle where she can get a job there.

Staying put will put you light years ahead in future over moving to Toronto. Good luck.

#110 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.16.16 at 9:53 pm

#102 SI2K on 03.16.16 at 9:36 pm

when did u leave?

#111 Herf on 03.16.16 at 9:55 pm

#57 UVIC ELEC

“I’m an electrical (still student) in Victoria, and share the same sentiment often; that SENGies have it made!”

I laugh (Ha Ha); I spit (Ptttui). I have a hard time thinking of software engineers as “engineers”. Pixel Pilots maybe; but “engineers”? Nah. Well, maybe if they’re developing, testing and verifying code for avionics black boxes. Or writing code for performing DSP (Digital Signal Processing). But I.T.? Not even in the same league. Glorified programmers. Pixel Pilots.

I think a mechanical engineer is more of an “engineer” than a “software engineer”; even more than an electrical engineer. Mech Eng’s – more adaptable and into more interesting stuff than “software”. Mech Eng = machines, hydraulics, aerodynamics, aeronautics, aircraft structures, materials, automobiles, gas turbines (jet engines), engines; rockets – “space” – neat (serious) stuff.

I.T. (“IT”) = microscoft, goo-gul; face-schlock; Windoze; video games; aka frivolous crap.

#112 SI2K on 03.16.16 at 9:57 pm

By the way, we’re vacating a non-moldy $3300 a month 2 1/2 bedroom apartment in the fancy schmancy Annex in summer if you want us to put in a good word. Only catch is the noisy students who live in the attic and Pot Guy in the basement. Oh, and the jet noise, (tens of thousands of jets a month,) and the fact they’re leveling the entire adjacent city block for condos starting next year. Toronto *was* fantastic, but now it’s pretty awful. Even some of the longest running dance club DJs are picking up and leaving town – their venues are shut, how can they not? I could go on. It’s not a great time to be 20 – 45 here. We’re sad to see the fabric of our neighborhoods ripped apart, but, as most of our friends have already, we’re just moving on.

#113 Mark on 03.16.16 at 10:00 pm

“They say you’re dead at thirty in that business because things change so fast everyone is always looking for recent grads”

Have to disagree with you on the ‘looking for recent grads’ part. Most tech jobs you see these days advertised have long laundry lists of “skills” required, and want people to have an arbitrary 5-7 years of “experience” (which is usually code word for “we don’t want young people”). Entry level jobs in the sector have largely disappeared or simply are given to foreigners because firms don’t want to deal with the locals and their salary requirements. Blame high RE prices for making it impossible to really live in Canada’s major cities without making $100k+/year.

As most involved with the tech sector in Canada and even in the US know, basically a neutron bomb went off in 2001 or so. Workforces of junior entrants were purged. If one got in prior to about 1998, then you’re probably sitting pretty as a sort of manager these days, having survived the purge. But hires after that were mostly purged out, or graduates after 2001 or so simply not hired. Its rather bizarre to see jobs that used to, in the late 1990s, only ‘require’ a diploma/degree of some sort or even some self-taught skills, now ‘requiring’ 5+ years, and a proprietary vendor certificate or two. Same companies and everything as well. And even then, firms are receiving 50-100 applications, sometimes more, for such positions.

#114 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.16.16 at 10:03 pm

#96 Mark on 03.16.16 at 9:11 pm

u can’t even get your resume noticed and you’re giving advice about tech employment? lol might boost credibility if u can get human resources to call u back. like jake said, he has no problems finding a tech gig. cuz its booming. 27 years old and making $157k CAD and prospects galore. very nice. now go find a job

#115 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.16.16 at 10:05 pm

#113 Mark on 03.16.16 at 10:00 pm

stop projecting. you’re speaking about yourself. jake is 27 years young and killin it. you can’t even get a job. your advice is as worthless as your resume. no credibility and low bar life skills. get a job first before speaking nonsense.

#116 preet89 on 03.16.16 at 10:07 pm

Why is this blog so anti-women??? If your partner wants to buy a place there should be compromise. The banks don’t have any issues with lending some money so why do you EXPERTS have a problem???

It is nice to have your OWN place to build equity, not get tossed out because a landlord wants to.

Still jealousy I sense, wrinklies come here to whine not the millennials.

#117 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.16.16 at 10:07 pm

the only tech ppl who can’t get a job in tech are losers
like WalMark who have low bar life skills. all these 20-somethings are killin it. and it’s only gonna get better. WalMark will be crying about the 2001 tech crash until he’s a senior citizen

#118 Smoking Man on 03.16.16 at 10:18 pm

#116 preet89 on 03.16.16 at 10:07 pm
Why is this blog so anti-women??? If your partner wants to buy a place there should be compromise. The banks don’t have any issues with lending some money so why do you EXPERTS have a problem???

It is nice to have your OW.eni place to build equity, not get tossed out because a landlord wants to.

Still jealousy I sense, wrinklies come here to whine not the millennials..
…………..

When do you her me whine about millennials. I rent millennials, they all pretend to love me.

To bad no business sense. they could easily charge more.

But you fks are to consumed with labels and fitting into the narrative not designed by you, but your exploiters, your evil teachers.

How are you ever going to figure out how to screw that invisible elephant in the room and win.

I should start a university…

#119 Derek R on 03.16.16 at 10:25 pm

I have to agree with the other blog dogs, Jake. Moving to Toronto would be crazy for you. Not only would you have to take the cut in pay, not only would you have to pay the higher Canadian taxes, you would also have to submit a US tax return and maybe pay US taxes on top because the Tax-Free Savings Account might be tax-free for Canadians but it won’t be tax-free for you.

So get her to move to Seattle. You’ll both benefit big time.

#120 Shirley valentine on 03.16.16 at 10:34 pm

Hey hot smokey alien man…. that is one AWESOME picture for your book… I guess there is no DUI for spaceships …..swigging back the JD…..will look great on the cover…. sure puts the pressure on you to make sure the writing is just as good!!

A celebratory release for when Trump wins?

#121 WUL on 03.16.16 at 10:35 pm

Garth, if I may.

Jake:

In retrospect, my earlier comment was hasty and ill advised. Fundamentally, you came to the wrong blog for advice on balancing affairs of the heart and finances/retirement/real estate. Garth’s advice is generally sound but some of the Dogs here belong in a Home for the Bewildered.

If their advice was correct, no rich people would ever get divorced.

You might receive more sound advice on balancing romance/money at the Seattle Chamber of Commerce.

You are young. Follow your heart, move to Hogtown and read some W. Somerset Maugham (“The Razor’s Edge” and “Of Human Bondage”).

You’ll be broke but you will have had one hell of a life.

#122 MF on 03.16.16 at 10:40 pm

#100 Estrella on 03.16.16 at 9:23 pm

Gag is right.

My post from earlier (with the language toned down)

“As an example, today Trudeau is courting one of the ultimate of all time hypocritical and failed systems: The UN.

How can I guy with a straight face proclaim he stands for equality/freedom from persecution/opportunity etc. support this crap organization run by third world tyrants, terrorist funding and supporting dumps, and currupt banana republics?”

The “refugees”, the refusal to revoke terrorist citizenship, the cozying up to terrorist states, the UN pandering, the poor fiscal management, the fake “statesmanship”, the sickening platitudes “it’s 2015”.

Trudeau is out of control.

#83 common sense on 03.16.16 at 8:37 pm

That’s right. Why not raise now if everything is so rosy? Why are we still at “emergency rates”? Truth is I think they should have raised rates in 2014 and now are stuck in a corner it. That’s why I think their ZIRP policy (and that of all central bankers) was a mistake, and it’s clear they are desperately trying to prolong the inevitable popping of asset bubbles they have created. I’m not a goldbug but I do think RE will fall precipitously here in the GTA and the US stock market will crash not correct at some point.

#94 hope & ruin on 03.16.16 at 9:04 pm

Ha no Peter Schiff (honest!)

And no reading materials for you, sorry man. I just read the news and watch the markets and I think it’s pretty obvious. Like common sense said, the whole world looks like it is struggling with growth and these central bankers really have nothing left. Markets rallying after these admissions of failure is also a sign of how detached it has all become IMO.

MF

#123 MGTOW on 03.16.16 at 10:57 pm

Jake, you nerdy looser, here are a couple of slaps for you. (Wham wham wham.)

Ok first off don’t ever more anywhere for less money. What are you some sort of Goth? Life has plenty of pain you needn’t be looking for it.

Second off you are moving to a lower paying job for a woman that makes less than half what you do??? Are you crazy? The lower income earner always makes the move and follows the higher earner. She can replace her job as a customer service rep at Home Depot far easier than you can replace yours. If she can’t see that point it’s because her mother is running the show which leads to wham 3:

Never get involved with a girl whose mother has more say than you do.

Do yourself a favor my friend. Enjoy your job, enjoy Seattle, get a motorcycle and stay off the internet dating sites! Sure, you can get killed on a motorcycle (so buy a small displacement one to start, it makes a big difference), but the motorcycle isn’t trying to kill you. Everything you meet online is.

#124 DON on 03.16.16 at 11:04 pm

Did Garth not speak of the rush to beat the new down payment rules. Perhaps that might account for the recent uptick.

As for Vic IT – really. The big boys outsource to India for Programmers – offshore rate is much lower – hard to beat. I hope the smaller and medium sized companies stay with local talent…I really do. Good jobs equals healthy society to some extent – until greed and fear enter the equation.

As for Jake…no brainer, unless her family is dependent on her, have her move to Seattle, you can always move to Toronto later, when you move up the ladder. But eh, love is love…just rent in Toronto.

#125 DON on 03.16.16 at 11:06 pm

Perhaps Jake needs a talking to from Freedom First. Take him out to the wood shed.

#126 Smoking Man on 03.16.16 at 11:10 pm

Man I just looked at the news on CTV.

Justin at the UN

Justin don’t worry , I’m reaching for the sharp knife in my sharp knife drawer.

I’m chopping it off.

Good thing I’m drunk and sensible.
.

Glad I hate groups. my wife can settle for softy vs nothing.

It’s all about the bed time hug. Nothing else matters

#127 Mark on 03.16.16 at 11:11 pm

Walmark are you ill or something? Because the tone of your comments, the truth of your comments, and even your punctuation these days is all out of kilter. Everything I say is the truth and can be backed by facts. You just spew jibberish almost every chance you get.

There’s people who can help you if you would just let them. But a good start would be to actually try and bring something to the table here. Or not at all.

#128 Smoking Man on 03.16.16 at 11:26 pm

#120 Shirley valentine on 03.16.16 at 10:34 pm
Hey hot smokey alien man…. that is one AWESOME picture for your book… I guess there is no DUI for spaceships …..swigging back the JD…..will look great on the cover…. sure puts the pressure on you to make sure the writing is just as good!!

A celebratory release for when Trump wins?

Trying to pull this off with out fame.

#129 Financial Samurai on 03.16.16 at 11:49 pm

Yeah, I wouldn’t jump in now either. Seems so dicey in Canada. That said, at least the USD currency is strong and can buy more CAD!

Wait a couple years and save more cash! Winter is coming.

Sam

#130 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.17.16 at 12:13 am

#127 Mark on 03.16.16 at 11:11 pm

shud focus on fixing your resume instead. too many gaps of unemployment. i know u can do better. tech is booming. there’s still time to catch the train.

#131 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.17.16 at 12:13 am

SM is making me a believer. maybe drumph can win. prolly not tho. shillary has the banks in her pocket.

#132 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 03.17.16 at 12:15 am

Garth,

I was wondering if these ivory tower central bankers make any sense to you. Here is a piece from the zero guys (who are prone to wild exaggeration and speculation). Nevertheless, I am pulling the quote as perhaps you could explain in common sense terms:

__________________________________________
The jarring cognitive dissonance appears to have finally hit Liesman, who asked the following question:

“Madam Chair, as you know, inflation has gone up the last two months. We had another strong jobs report. The tracking forecasts for GDP have returned to two percent. And yet the Fed stands pat while it’s in a process of what it said at launch in December was a process of normalization.

So I have two questions about this. Does the Fed have a credibility problem in the sense that it says it will do one thing under certain conditions, but doesn’t end up doing it? And then, frankly, if the current conditions are not sufficient for the Fed to raise rates, well, what would those conditions ever look like?

The answer was a 261 word jumbled nightmare of James Joyceian stream of consciousness interspersed with high-end econobabble that we, for one, were completely unable to follow. This is what Yellen responded verbatim:

Well, let me start — let me start with the question of the Fed’s credibility. And you used the word “promises” in connection with that. And as I tried to emphasize in my opening statement, the paths that the participants project for the federal funds rate and how it will evolve are not a pre-set plan or commitment or promise of the committee. Indeed, they are not even — the median should not be interpreted as a committee-endorsed forecast. And there’s a lot of uncertainty around each participant’s projection. And they will evolve. Those assessments of appropriate policy are completely contingent on each participant’s forecasts of the economy and how economic events will unfold. And they are, of course, uncertain. And you should fully expect that forecasts for the appropriate path of policy on the part of all participants will evolve over time as shocks, positive or negative, hit the economy that alter those forecasts. So, you have seen a shift this time in most participants’ assessments of the appropriate path for policy. And as I tried to indicate, I think that largely reflects a somewhat slower projected path for global growth — for growth in the global economy outside the United States, and for some tightening in credit conditions in the form of an increase in spreads. And those changes in financial conditions and in the path of the global economy have induced changes in the assessment of individual participants in what path is appropriate to achieve our objectives. So that’s what you see — that’s what you see now.”

#133 Bram on 03.17.16 at 12:24 am

So it turns out that right now, we need a ‘beautiful deleveraging’ in Canada.

Check out this top documentary on how the economy works:
http://www.economicprinciples.org

Bill Gates had this to say on it:
“This knowledge would help everyone as investors and citizens. Watching is a worthwhile 30 minutes investment.”

Bram

#134 smart on 03.17.16 at 12:43 am

Our Calgary based landlord announced this week he is selling our vancouver condo. I don’t blame him ..he’ll make a wack on it. Now to find another landlord to subsidize is

#135 Fad occupation on 03.17.16 at 12:52 am

Pay $1k to be a mortgage broker. Take a 3 week course to me come a real estate agent. It seems like everyone wants to become a mortgage broker or re agent.

#136 Carsclay on 03.17.16 at 12:54 am

Jake, before you commit to the move think about the money you make and the cost of living comparison. Look at Runzheimer.com to get a fair quote. I did it eleven years ago and thank god i did :) 35% better or more!

#137 A Yank in BC on 03.17.16 at 12:55 am

To further add to the ridiculousness of what Jake is considering, as an American citizen, he will still owe taxes to the IRS every year from his Canadian wages. She cannot possibly be that hot.

#138 6y on 03.17.16 at 1:05 am

Yeah eh

#139 Death Defying Logic on 03.17.16 at 1:19 am

Is this guy a total stopped up loser engaged to the only vagina in the world? Why would he forego a great salary in a country with a zillion times more opportunity, mobility and better weather for a Toronto snatch with a clerk salary? Give this guy a wall socket enema and tell the gal pal to lose Toronto instead of ruining this guys life.

#140 Anon on 03.17.16 at 1:49 am

Bought 9 months ago into East Van at 920 and just sold for 1,325….

The market is unbelievable right now and I’m happy to have been in a situation where I was able to sell and pocket a nice healthy return.

I hope I’ll be able to buy back in someday

#141 Matt on 03.17.16 at 2:25 am

Garth, I’ve been meaning to ask you about your logic for including the “lost earning potential” of down payment funds when considering the cost of renting vs owning.

In a hypothetical scenario of $100k down payment on a $500k house, you could consider a 5% return (60/40 portfolio, guess at a long term average return) or $5k/ annum of “foregone income”.

However, if you also consider a 1% return on the $500k house (my guess at a long term average appreciation rate excluding recent 10 years or so of madness), that also works out to $5k.

Unless you’re assuming zero growth on the house, a massive down payment or a relative higher return of market vs. (higher leverage by multiple of 3-4x) home price growth, I’m not sure I follow. Can you explain, pls?

#142 No Canada, No on 03.17.16 at 2:36 am

There is no IT in Toronto – compared to Seattle

#143 dh on 03.17.16 at 2:44 am

120K in Seattle vs 90Kin TO for a basic tech job. That’s nothing. I went from 180K in the bay area to offers of 60 to 65K in Van. Canada is really only a pretend first world country.
It pulls a immigration fraud on the rest of the world too. It brings in all these people that on a net basis it really has no use for, other than blowing their life savings on massively overpriced goods and services. Once the prospective immigrant figures out what a mistake they’ve made, the government hopes they’ll go back where they came from. It’s a form of corruption at the highest levels, something the Canadian aristocratic excels at.

#144 observer on 03.17.16 at 3:53 am

The truth is no government wants to be the one that put a prick into the bubble.

Therefore they are kicking the can down the road, hoping the bubble real estate economy will continue.

They all know the trouble the market is in.

Remember what the Ponzi King said Maydolf (???)

Near the end game he said, he knew he had a bubble but knew it was too late to correct it, because they gone too far.

Therefore he continued living the lie and reaping the benefits from the Ponzi pyramid and living large at the same time….

#145 jane 24 on 03.17.16 at 3:59 am

Well the British budget is out and there is a HUGE increase in yearly allowance for tax free savings accounts, what you folk call TFSA and we call ISA. Each person can put £20,000 that is $38,000 Cdn in one each year now. So for hubby and I, we can shelter $76,000 Cdn per year in stocks and income trusts.

If I add to that the yaerly income tax personal allowance of £11,500 or $21,850 Cdn per person plus the yearly capital gains exemption of £11,000 or $20,900 Cdn per
person, then this middle class boomer couple are basically out of the paying income tax business.

Yeah, couldn’t have happened to nicer folk.

Fellow Canadians are so over taxed in Canada it is unreal. I ask again, why aren’t you rioting in the streets?

EU Referendum debate has gone very quiet, I and everyone I know can’t wait to vote out!!

#146 nubbers on 03.17.16 at 3:59 am

Jake,

Buy her the most expensive house you can afford. Soon you will be commuting back to the US to make ends meet and importing lots of lovely foreign cash into Canada, just when it needs it. Your future wife and Canada will both be grateful for the HAM (Hot American Money).

Just kidding. For goodness sake, don’t do it.

#147 drydock on 03.17.16 at 4:22 am

#79 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.16.16 at 8:34 pm

“I’m a 27 year old software engineer in Seattle with girlfriend (soon to be wife) in Toronto. My salary is $120k USD/yr and girlfriend’s is 45k CAD/yr. Thanks to my great job and frugal ways, I’ve been able to accrue $120,000 CAD. No other debt, no car. My girlfriend has around $60,000 CAD plus we have around $50k in cash in a savings account.

thumbs up to jake and his gf. tech is an awesome profession. amazing savings for someone so young. congratulations!

010101010101010101

You give me a headache.

#148 drydock on 03.17.16 at 4:25 am

#101 Smoking Man on 03.16.16 at 9:28 pm

The Left Brain vs the Right Brain.

The Left Brain spent to many years getting schooled, see itself as a victim.

Has no real knowledge on how to get rich, so it makes the rich it mortal enemy. Rather than opening its eyes, and ears and learn from the ones that do it, they have hallucinations that anyone who has money cheated, justifying there lack of earning knowledge and feeling of stupity.

The left brain embraces social issues, lets face it, it’s lonely to be the only loser in the room, this beast needs community because it can’t survive as an individual.

The left brain is terrified of competion and risk, horrified of placing a bet and losing in front of the community further instilling the self loathing of the brain itself.

Its biggest fear is being judged negatively by the fellow loser left brained. The only time it’s brave is in large mobs with fellow losers. Its good at name calling a group shaming. Other than that, its pretty much useless.

Now The Right Brain

The Right Brain, well it’s a bit of a cowboy. A Total individual and its only fear is giving up trying to hit the jackpot after several attempts and failures.

The Right brain gives no shit about what anyone thinks of it. Doesn’t have time actually, as it is always trying new things for that elusive jackpot the left brain is so terrified of.

The right brain is a good brain, it always tries to help the left brain, but the left brain is too dip shit stupid to even see it. How can it, 16 years of schooling?

The right brain gives up trying to help the left, so it does what it can and just creates new companies, pays them crumbs and hopes one day the moron will grow a right brain, come up with an idea and right brain can partner with and share the bounty.

Go Trump

010101010101010101010101

Lately you’ve been knocking them out of the park bud.

#149 Gerry Gerry on 03.17.16 at 6:10 am

Hot robot wants to get into real estate and destroy humans…just like Justin

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000502094

#150 Toronto Sucks on 03.17.16 at 6:42 am

Why anyone would leave the beautiful city of Seattle of this piece of shit third world hell hole is beyond me. Everyday I pray I can get out of here.

#151 Bottoms_Up on 03.17.16 at 7:23 am

Personally, not sure I’d be so keen on losing an adjusted $60,000 in yearly salary, plus moving from a country with the lowest cost of living to one with the highest…

#152 Bottoms_Up on 03.17.16 at 7:39 am

#141 Matt on 03.17.16 at 2:25 am
——————————–
I think there’s a few issues that also need to considered in that analysis of yours.

1) 1 asset strategy (mainly Garths point)
2) selling cost to get your “gains” back (5 years of gains are wiped out just by selling your house)
3) and yes of course in many markets house prices aren’t moving and therefore is a loss to inflation and Garths rationale holds

#153 Bottoms_Up on 03.17.16 at 7:45 am

#132 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 03.17.16 at 12:15 am
——————————-
That reads fine to me, in summary, forecasts are subject to change based on prevailing conditions, and in this particular case global growth has slowed which has made USA policy makers more weary of raising rates.

#154 Mr.Frugal on 03.17.16 at 7:46 am

Jake you are nuts! She doesn’t even make enough to offset your lost income and increased living expenses by moving to Canada. If she’s not willing to move to Seattle then she ain’t a keeper.

#155 Bottoms_Up on 03.17.16 at 7:51 am

#116 preet89 on 03.16.16 at 10:07 pm
————————–
I’m fairly certain the advice would be the same if their genders were switched…..lower paying job moves to higher paying job, in the land of lower cost of living and better lifestyle and quality of life. As many said on here before it is a no-brainer.

#156 Mr.Frugal on 03.17.16 at 7:57 am

#101 Smoking Man on 03.16.16 at 9:28 pm
The Left Brain vs the Right Brain.

——————————————————

A very good post!!!

#157 mishuko on 03.17.16 at 8:14 am

Everyday I wake up to a job I’m fairly grateful to have (far less than this blog though!)

Not a single moment passes that I wish to be on the board. Not a single moment passes where I want to be in a position to make some ‘operational overhead changes’. Not a single day do I blame anyone but myself for my own position.

I want the government to back off, get their sticky grimy hands out of my pockets (unless it’s a hot lass) and let me be.

Everyday I decide for myself what I want to do with my life. I don’t need some nut job telling me how to live. I drink, I smoke, I swear, I ramble, I have opinions, I’m politically incorrect, I call a spade a spade. I do what I want as catman would say.

Oh I saw a report about how Canada doesn’t even break the top 10 solar energy #’s. So much for ‘green’ energy. friggin dinks.

#158 hope & ruin on 03.17.16 at 8:19 am

#133 Bram on 03.17.16 at 12:24 am
#101 Smoking Man on 03.16.16 at 9:28 pm

Check out the book the “Originals: How Non-conformists move the world”

it has a chapter on “Groupthink” and the culture Ray Dalio formed at Bridgewater. I bet the PhD of Herdonomics would approve. The chapter stands alone. Don’t need to read anything else in the book.

Here’s a little piece.

“In the investment world, you can only make money if you think differently from everyone else. Bridgewater has prevented groupthink by inviting dissenting opinions from every employee in the company. When employees share independent viewpoints instead of conforming to the majority, there’s a much higher chance that Bridgewater will make investment decisions no one else has considered and recognize financial trends no one else has discerned…….my goal isn’t to analyze Bridgewater’s brilliant financial decisions, but to take a deeper look at the culture that underlies those decisions. It starts with Bridgewater’s billionaire founder, Ray Dalio. Although he has been called the Steve Jobs of investing, employees don’t communicate with him as if he’s anyone special. Here’s an email that Jim, a client advisor, sent to Dalio after a meeting with an important potential client:

“Ray—you deserve a “D-” for your performance today….you rambled for 50 minutes….it was obvious to all of us that you did not prepare at all because there is no way you could have and been that disorganized at the outset if you had prepared. We told you this prospect has been identified as a “must-win”….today was really bad…..we can’t let this happen again.”

#159 MF on 03.17.16 at 8:26 am

#143 dh on 03.17.16 at 2:44 am

Not entirely true. Look I’m not saying Canada is some utopia, nor that I agree with the immigration system we have set up, but I think you are being a little harsh.

My SE Asian gf is happy here and are all her friends. The reasons:

-social safety net. In her home country you are either rich or poor and there is nothing in between. Medicine and food can take up all your income meaning you have to borrow and then possibly owe to survive.
-Lots of jobs available (if you are willing to work). Compared to back home, the amount of jobs, even if it means working at tim hortons for minimum wage, is high here. You can also be over 30 and still start a new career/switch jobs. In many parts of the world you are considered too old to do that and are basically screwed if you lose your job/get sick/cannot work.
-Less corruption. I am not saying we don’t have any here, but back home it sounds clear absolutely no one trusts the Government. The government back home is always only out for itself and it is very obvious and blatant with its stealing, nepotism, bribing, mismanagement, wastage, suspicion and even violence.

We complain about civil servants here but imagine seeing your town mayor or random official driving a Mercedes and living in a mansion that takes up a city block while the rest can barely afford food. This is even though his salary, which is made public, is supposed to be less than a clerk at the dollar store.
-Stability. There is less of a threat of social upheaval, less violence and less threats from natural disasters than many many places on earth. It seems safe to raise families here.

It also depends on the type of immigrant too. The vast majority I know (from this community at least) work like dogs once they are here and are grateful for it.

Again no utopia but definitely not a “pretend” first world country.

MF

#160 Alistair McLaughlin on 03.17.16 at 8:48 am

The easy solution is to get married and then take wifey back to Seattle. In fact, it is the ONLY solution. Because ANYONE who would even consider leaving Seattle for Toronto has to be completely nuts. Seattle is the ultimate liveable city. It is everything Vancouver aspires to be, and should be, but never will be. If I had my choice, there is simply no other city in North America that I would rather live in. And Washington is one of 7 US states with no state income tax. Plus, you can file your federal taxes in the US jointly and split your income down the middle, saving even more money. This is a big deal since your squeeze earns much less than you. (In Canada, income splitting requires all sorts of fancy footwork and is still nowhere near as tax-efficient as straight joint filing in the US.) Yet you would move to Kathleen Wynne’s Ontario – in Justin Trudeau’s Canada – for a 40% pay cut, a 30% hike in income taxes, (more once you consider the inability to file jointly), and higher living costs??? For what? Universal healthcare? Even a premium, gold plated health insurance package for the both of you will not cost you nearly as much as the move to Toronto will. If honey doesn’t want to leave Toronto and move to Seattle, then she’s crazy. Get a new honey.

#161 MF on 03.17.16 at 8:50 am

#153 Bottoms_Up on 03.17.16 at 7:45 am

Yeah right. It’s now the boy who called wolf.

There will always be “global risks”. That’s why they use that pathetic excuse.

but more telling is things are relatively calm currently. No Greece in the news, no brexit, less commodity fears, less China slowdown, no dow correction. Plus we are constantly told about the “improving” US economy. There is even some inflation finally. Now would have been the perfect time for the second raise so why didn’t they?

They seem clueless to me, sorry.

MF

#162 Paul on 03.17.16 at 8:56 am

Justin taking lessons from Obama!!

http://conservativefans.com/2016/03/15/new-refugees-already-have-iphones-will-recieve-1-25m-worth-of-laptops-from-liberals/

#163 The Other Chris on 03.17.16 at 9:29 am

@162 Paul on 03.17.16 at 8:56 am

Why are they giving free laptops to the refugees?

I could understand it if they were giving free laptops to everyone on social assistance, but just the refugees? Who comes up with these policies?

#164 Yanniel on 03.17.16 at 9:37 am

Jake,

Toronto’s Software Engineer here (full-time) and part time marriage counselor.

Your estimated salary expectancy in Toronto is about right. Notice that you’re leaving a technology hub (Seattle) to come to a city in which the tech talent is not appreciated money wise.

I think you guys should be moving in the other direction, south of the border. The person making the less money should go to live with the one making the big bucks.

If your fiancé does not love you enough to live in the US, then you should reconsider your marriage.

Plus, you won’t have the in-laws nagging all the time about buying a house if you live in Seattle.

On the weather side, Seattle is rainy but Toronto is way colder.

#165 Smoking Man on 03.17.16 at 9:39 am

The main reason Trump is surging. The right brain has had enough.

In order to grow a political moment you need a common enemy that everyone can rally against.

Modern day liberalism has selected the straight white males and there traditional values and families as the enemies of the state..

This below from the National Review. And take the uhal where is what I want to know.

“The truth about these dysfunctional, downscale communities is that they deserve to die. Economically, they are negative assets. Morally, they are indefensible. Forget all your cheap theatrical Bruce Springsteen crap. Forget your sanctimony about struggling Rust Belt factory towns and your conspiracy theories about the wily Orientals stealing our jobs. Forget your goddamned gypsum, and, if he has a problem with that, forget Ed Burke, too. The white American underclass is in thrall to a vicious, selfish culture whose main products are misery and used heroin needles. Donald Trump’s speeches make them feel good. So does OxyContin. What they need isn’t analgesics, literal or political. They need real opportunity, which means that they need real change, which means that they need U-Haul.”

#166 Calgary Rip Off on 03.17.16 at 9:59 am

I grew up in Bellevue.

First thing, Seattle sucks. I remember thinking I was the only one encountering people that were antisocial there. I realized wrong. “Seattle freeze” is a very real thing.

I remember in 1990 when I lived in Haggett Hall at UW seattle. On fridays my friend from highschool would drive back home over the 520 bridge. He would stand up on the counter and gesture to the suicide proof windows that he had the solution, he would drive drunk over the bridge. He’s still around today, after all these mishaps. People on Friday nights would either study or watch Star Trek the Next Generation. Saturday nights most people would be at home or studying(again).

Seattle is rainy, pretty much all year around.

There are so many social contradictions there and a screwy culture. Yes, Calgary is much better. After having grown up in the Seattle area, I always wondered why people are so friendly in Calgary(do they want something? Why are they talking so much? Seriously, being in Seattle warps your mind-there is a reason why most grunge music superstars are dead-ice cold people).

Vancouver is in no way anything like Seattle, and that includes rain(different mountain cover which means different rain patterns).

There’s a reason why computer techs thrive in Seattle. Its called antisocialism. Microsoft and the dotcom threw the housing values through the roof there. I remember in 1985 when things started to skyrocket due to the influx of Californians in Bellevue. Then Microsoft took off and everything went up. I remember my parents renting a house in Eastgate beginning in 1977 for $385/month. In 1990 it was $385 a month, for a 1200 sq foot property, one bathroom, on .3 acre of land. That same house today is $500K+ The rent was cheap because the landlord was a higher up in Rainer Bank. Seattle and Bellevue were a lot like “Northern Exposure” and “Twin Peaks” and bands like Queensryche and Seventh Force came out in the 1980’s. http://www.metal-archives.com/bands/Seventh_Force/35702

Note to readers: Seattle? No. Dont go there now. It sucks.

#167 hope & ruin on 03.17.16 at 10:06 am

#122 MF on 03.16.16 at 10:40 pm

the whole world looks like it is struggling with growth and these central bankers really have nothing left.
___________________________________

still waiting for tpp to be passed though. Could be a game changer. I see a number of companies lining up to take advantage. Battle lines have been drawn. Still a couple billion people in the world to buy ipads, cars and ikea furniture. I don’t think growth is done yet. But canadians will be neck deep in real estate assets instead.

#168 dodgedbullet on 03.17.16 at 10:10 am

the sleaziest of sleazy blog dog drool I’ve seen yet.

#169 Yanniel on 03.17.16 at 10:13 am

By the way Jake, as you, I relocated to Toronto when I was 27. It took me some time to get a job offering more than 90k as software developer; mainly because I did not have the “seniority or experience” required. What I am trying to say is that it might be not that easy to get a job above 90k as a software engineer if you don’t have more than ~7/8 years of experience as developer (in Toronto that is). If you do, great, if not, then your salary cut (marriage tax) might be even greater.

#170 family beagle on 03.17.16 at 10:14 am

“I’m being pressured by family/girlfriend but my gut tells me to just rent and invest. Help!”

….

Define “pressured”. I recommend a second girlfriend for balance and diversity.

#171 Retired Boomer WI on 03.17.16 at 10:16 am

MF-

Yellen is a ‘fiscal dove’ which means the lady is, and will always hesitant to raise the FED rate, without regard to how bright the sun may be shinning. It is merely easier to do nothing.

You understand that a lot of countries have borrowed US dollars for whatever purposes, and now our dollar has appreciated materially compared to their home currencies, making pay back even tougher for those countries.

Our rates affect far more than us here in the States. Besides, we have our own stupids pickled in debt, be it student, auto, consumer, or mortgage debt, or any combination.

While I would LOVE to see rates races back to historical levels of 2-3% over any inflation, alas that is not to be for the foreseeable future.

You will note there is an eerily similar interaction between prosperity, and rising interest rates. They both reside “just around the corner.”

In the meantime, there is money to be made elsewhere…

RB

#172 Martin on 03.17.16 at 10:24 am

“If you truly love this girl, J, do the right thing. Make her bitterly disappointed. We’re right behind you.”

If you truly love her, get her out of this dump called Toronto and bring to Seattle. You will thank me later. Wish I had a US passport or GC.

#173 WallOfWorry on 03.17.16 at 10:26 am

Garth….#17….if you are paying any attention to the bond market, look no further than the repo and it is telling you a lot more than mortgages are going up? Wake up my friend.

#174 Suzie Q on 03.17.16 at 10:31 am

Give your head a shake, Jake.

I am a Canadian woman, making just over 50k per year, and have very close ties to my family and community – but I would NEVER ask a man I loved to take a 30 or 40k haircut (before exchange!!!) to come to me! If we absolutely had to be together, I would go to him, no question.

In fact, if I were with a man who would even consider something that ridiculous, I’d probably find a new man…

#175 mid on 03.17.16 at 10:46 am

Jake
Have to echo what others have said. Can’t recommend moving to Toronto. Born and raised here. Lived most of my life here, but Toronto has many many problems. Media and politicians paint Toronto as a world-class city but do not talk about the real problems.

70% of the middle-class neighbourhoods have disappeared since I was a kid. (google>toronto three cities). Another study a few years ago found that 50% of employment in the Greater Toronto area is part-time or short-term contract. There is a lot of crime (again read Toronto 3 cities/jobs part-time).

http://www.urbancentre.utoronto.ca/pdfs/curp/tnrn/Three-Cities-Within-Toronto-2010-Final.pdf

The infrastructure is failing. Toronto is collapsing under its own weight. All they do is argue for years about building public transit and taking down the Gardiner. They ruined the waterfront, it is virtually unaccessible.

Traffic congestion is hell. Also wouldn’t recommend long commute. And it is ugly with tons of glass tower condos. Those go up fast enough with no thought to urban planning. In fact Toronto is run by developers. No decent parks, or green space, all concrete. And no thought to creating civic places for all or a civilized environemnt.

Yes we have lots of cultural events, but don’t go to them anymore because of the mobs of people. Every year more of my friends leave Toronto. Toronto is becoming an unliveable city.

Also the rental stock is shit. They haven’t built rental in over 40 years. Very difficult to find decent rental in a crime-free neighbourhood.

#176 Tony on 03.17.16 at 10:50 am

Re: #150 Toronto Sucks on 03.17.16 at 6:42 am

The air pollution will kill you, the noise pollution will drive you insane and going a bit farther south you can see the water pollution in Lake Ontario. Jake would hightail it back to Seattle in a New York minute as he got off the plane at Pearson without ever even seeing Toronto.

#177 Brian Richards on 03.17.16 at 11:01 am

Not only is love blind, it is stupid. The prospective groom is young and inexperienced. When considering marriage, always think “divorce”, and resultant costs. Best wishes.

#178 IHCTD9 on 03.17.16 at 11:44 am

Jake,

A few things to think about:

The average salary for a Software Engineer in Toronto, Ontario is C$68,491 per year. No matter where you look, you rarely see a software engineer reporting much more than 70K/yr – especially one just starting out like yourself.

Immigrants are a significant source of supply for this profession. This means if you live in Toronto – you are not going to just walk into a job easy, for big (or even medium) wages. I’d knock 35-40 grand off of your income expectations. Toronto is LOADED with immigrants – good ones – that are educated, and T2 is increasing immigration levels from here on out.

Divorce rate in Ontario is probably 45-50%.

Nearly 70% of all divorces are initiated by women.

No fault divorce means all that matters is who gets the money and the kids.

Of all recipients of alimony, 97% are women.

Jake, you are going to Vegas, the odds are 50/50.

Heads: You live a below average existence in a below average city, with no savings, and brokeass retirement. You and your wife just will not make enough in Toronto to get ahead given the costs.

Tails: You lose everything, with no chance to ever make it back to where you are right now. Double the pain if you had kids with her.

#179 Smoking Man on 03.17.16 at 11:45 am

Happens every time the left brain trys to run a business.

http://business.financialpost.com/fp-tech-desk/torstar-corp-posts-234-5-million-loss-in-fourth-quarter-mostly-from-writedowns?__lsa=cd6e-db94

#180 Marc on 03.17.16 at 11:58 am

I don’t mean to spread bad Karma but divorces in Ontario means half the value of the house is to be shared by both parties through equalization!!! Get a pre-up!!!!

Ask me how I know!

#181 Smoking Man on 03.17.16 at 12:02 pm

The thieving left gets their just rewards.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/upac-arrests-list-1.3495338

Wynnes day is coming.

#182 waiting on the westcoast on 03.17.16 at 12:08 pm

SM – great post on left vs right brain. I disagree with your follow up post that the right brains are rising up…

I think that Trump (right brain) has found a way to tap into the hallucinations of many low income, white left brains who blame their leadership, the system, free trade, immigrants, etc., for their troubles. He doesn’t even pay them crumbs… Just offers them an enemy and hope that he can change everything.

Smart guy.

#183 Mr. Frugal on 03.17.16 at 12:28 pm

#169 Yanniel on 03.17.16 at 10:13 am
By the way Jake, as you, I relocated to Toronto when I was 27. It took me some time to get a job offering more than 90k as software developer; mainly because I did not have the “seniority or experience” required. What I am trying to say is that it might be not that easy to get a job above 90k as a software engineer if you don’t have more than ~7/8 years of experience as developer (in Toronto that is). If you do, great, if not, then your salary cut (marriage tax) might be even greater.

——————————————————-

I would have to agree with Mark here. I’ve hired software developers with lots of experience for considerably less than $90K. Jake might get lucky and catch a break. But, there’s a good chance he will have to settle for $75K or less. There are lots of talented developers looking for work and employers are reluctant to hire young workers with grand salary expectations.

#184 No Brain on 03.17.16 at 12:48 pm

#165 Smoking Man on 03.17.16 at 9:39 am

The main reason Trump is surging. The right brain has had enough.

In order to grow a political moment you need a common enemy that everyone can rally against.

Modern day liberalism has selected the straight white males and there traditional values and families as the enemies of the state..

This below from the National Review. And take the uhal where is what I want to know.

“The truth about these dysfunctional, downscale communities is that they deserve to die. Economically, they are negative assets. Morally, they are indefensible. Forget all your cheap theatrical Bruce Springsteen crap. Forget your sanctimony about struggling Rust Belt factory towns and your conspiracy theories about the wily Orientals stealing our jobs. Forget your goddamned gypsum, and, if he has a problem with that, forget Ed Burke, too. The white American underclass is in thrall to a vicious, selfish culture whose main products are misery and used heroin needles. Donald Trump’s speeches make them feel good. So does OxyContin. What they need isn’t analgesics, literal or political. They need real opportunity, which means that they need real change, which means that they need U-Haul.”
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
So why are you a surging Trumpett? You have neither a left or a right brain.

#185 Switzerland on 03.17.16 at 12:52 pm

Do it like in Swiss chesse country:

The rates for capital gains are usually progressive and the longer the property is owned, the lower the taxes. A shorter owning period would require a surcharge and both cantonal and municipal levels are applicable. The following are the cantonal rules for the disposal of immovable property:

The standard rate is applicable after the holding period of four to five years. The top burden usually ranges from 25% to 50%.
Tax is gradually reduced after exceeding the four to five years of ownership. The maximum relief allowed is 50% to 70% of the payable tax.
A surcharge of up to 50% of the normal tax may be imposed on short term gains i.e. properties sold within the first four or five years.

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/Switzerland/Taxes-and-Costs

#186 Ronaldo on 03.17.16 at 1:13 pm

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-exports-first-freely-traded-oil-in-40-years-1452643962

Here’s what my crystal ball is telling me.

Oil to $50 min. u.s. by end of June
AU 1600 us
AG 20 us
CAD 90
TSX 16,000
XIU 24

And Jake, listen to what the blog dogs are telling you.

#187 IHCTD9 on 03.17.16 at 1:16 pm

#116 preet89 on 03.16.16 at 10:07 pm

Still jealousy I sense, wrinklies come here to whine not the millennials.

_________________________________________

Says the dude(ette) who thinks the more debt you have, the more money you’ll make. We should brag about who was able to accumulate the most debt!

Keep saying it until you believe it. No one 40+ gives a crap about Civics or iphones FFS grab a brain.

#188 waiting on the westcoast on 03.17.16 at 1:17 pm

#177 Brian Richards re: love is blind and stupid

I have been blind and stupid in both love and business (working on startups). I would say that while a very disciplined and secure life would be cautiously fruitful, it sure would be boring (for me).

In addition to being more fun, I have learned that by increasing my risk tolerance, I am more capable/comfortable in high risk situations and receive higher compensation for that ability.

So – there is no one size fits all model. If you take a lower risk path, it will have strengths and benefits… Same for a higher risk profile. And both will have challenges as well.

#189 RyYYZ on 03.17.16 at 1:28 pm

The more I think about it, the more I think I should sell the town house I bought ~3 years ago and find something similar to rent. Renting would cost me more per month, actually, and it would be a big hassle, but not as much of a hassle as losing $40-50k (~20%) or more in equity would be if house prices retreat.

Risk: house prices don’t retreat, and I miss out on continuing increases in values. And I would pay more to rent a similar place than my current combined mortgage and property taxes.

Upside: if house prices do retreat significantly, a buying opportunity down the road. I might even come out a bit ahead if I sell now, even after closing costs, commissions, moving costs, etc.

I’m still thinking about. I’m pretty happy with where I live now, it’s comfortable for me. But I don’t know what might happen down the road. If the economy tanks (even more so than it is already) and house prices fall, I could find myself out of job and needing to move for work, and stuck with a house that’s underwater, or at least worth a bunch less than I paid for it.

#190 JamesA on 03.17.16 at 1:41 pm

Jake (if you exist),

I did CS and have been a programer in Canada for > 15 years. Most of which has been video games. I can assure you that most of the comments above are wrong (if you are self taught or from some 6 month course your milage may vary). It quite easy to make over 100k in Toronto as a programmer. The problem is, its at a bank. Which is just dreadful busy work and pointless meetings. There are some really interesting startups but the salary is lower (get options). Also Google is opening (opened?) a tech outpost in KW. Ubisoft is here and few other half decent game companies. There is lots going in here and if you have any ideas you can probably find backers for a startup.

Life is short. Try to be happy. If she is the one and has laid down the lady law. What can you do? She must be one hell of women to get you to move from Seattle to TO though. Seattle is great (job wise and looks).

SuzyQ men who are infatuated do strange things. I am sure under the right circumstances, you could drive someone half crazy too. We have no control of the dumb ideas that jump into our heads when under the influence of beautiful women. C’est la vie, i would not want it any other way.

#191 conan on 03.17.16 at 2:02 pm

I thought that chipmunk was a chick magnet. Look at this guy……. a living legend.

#192 Mixed Bag on 03.17.16 at 2:11 pm

Watching Breakfast Television this morning, the ticker at the bottom of the screen summarizing the scene:

“Patrick’s Day Parade”.

Is the “St.” part now politically incorrect? :(

#193 James on 03.17.16 at 2:13 pm

One must be crazy to move from US to CA.

Many Canadians try win green card lottery to US,
because of much more opportunities, higher salaries, low housing prices

#194 Prairieboy43 on 03.17.16 at 2:14 pm

Left Handed=Right Brained. Right Brained are creative type people. They create change. Keep your eyes open for Left handedness. Government Interview. LH need not apply.

PB43

#195 waiting on the westcoast on 03.17.16 at 2:31 pm

Looks like the Liberals are following through with another bonehead policy change. Even though I will be benefiting, it is the wrong move for the country, and frankly, for workers. We can and should work longer as most jobs are not that physically demanding and having purpose is powerful.

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/news/economy/liberals-will-return-age-of-eligibility-for-old-age-security-to-65-in-next-weeks-budget-trudeau&pubdate=2016-03-17

#196 jess on 03.17.16 at 2:42 pm

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/mar/17/democracy-is-a-joke-says-china-just-look-at-donald-trump

#197 Rexx Rock on 03.17.16 at 3:25 pm

Nice joke,yes there is lots of elderly in Victoria but if your under 50 you feel still young.Oh yes,Victoria is very boring but that’s why everybody has the max cable tv package.

#198 lee on 03.17.16 at 3:38 pm

Rest assured that if one reads between the lines from what JT was saying today, it will not be long before TFSA withdrawls and dividend income from publicly traded Canadian corporations will be used to calculate the clawback on OAS. I really don’t care, but this is where it is headed. In this way all income, be it RRSP income, pension income and normal income will be used to calculate the threshold for clawbacks. I think it will not be long before he pulls the TFSA.

#199 Smoking Man on 03.17.16 at 3:42 pm

#196 jess on 03.17.16 at 2:42 pm
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/mar/17/democracy-is-a-joke-says-china-just-look-at-donald-trump

Ha China lecturing The USA on Democracy. Now I heard everything.

#200 WalMark of Sadkatoon on 03.17.16 at 3:45 pm

FYI left brain right brain is a myth. for those who are still working with 1970s science.

https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/brain-myths/201206/why-the-left-brain-right-brain-myth-will-probably-never-die

https://www.braindecoder.com/neil-degrasse-tyson-elegantly-debunk-right-left-brain-myth-1120713524.html

#201 SWL1976 on 03.17.16 at 3:51 pm

Left vs Right brain

The right brain is very liner in its approach to things, is very rigid and likes to move in a straight line. Sometimes referred to as the male side of the brain. The right brain deals with math and sciences very well and can easily make a decision sometimes right, sometimes wrong, but once the right brain decides it works in a very linear way to get there.

The left brain does not follow such a liner path and is more open to its surroundings and does not follow such a linear path. Also sometimes referred to as the Female side of the brain. The left side of the brain feels emotion can reason, and does not need to follow such a linear path. It is more focused on art and spirituality and usually has a deeper connection to the earth and the spirit world.

Now with everything in life, things work much better when we have balance and moderation. So just like being entirely left brained is not a good thing, being entirely right brained is also not good. One needs balance to see this, focusing on the extremities in either is narrow minded and short sighted.

I had a conversation with a friend over dinner last night who I hadn’t talked to in quite sometime. Normally he and I were on the same page with geopolitics and what was going on in the world. However, now like with Smoking Man he is simply mesmerized by Trump and he seemed quite content with the racial divide and the spreading of hate that surrounds the Trump campaign.

To each their own, but we need balance more than anything these days

#202 mishuko on 03.17.16 at 4:03 pm

what say you to switch/ambidexterous people?

or in my special case I use both hands for different tasks… I write with the right. sports I’m left dominant… except golf.

when I cut my rare steak I forget which hand is the right hand to cut with. they both feel right.

#203 nimsy on 03.17.16 at 4:15 pm

love must be strong… at the current exchange rate, $120k USD is approx $156k CAD. moving to Canada and earning $90k CAD is a $66k CAD pay cut. he’s better off staying in Seattle and having his girl move to Seattle… even if she works at starbucks they are still better off (financially). Note: Not reflecting living in a society that votes for the likes of Donald Trump

#204 TurnerNation on 03.17.16 at 4:21 pm

Life long Toronto resident. It’s become a stratified leftist socialist programmed S_hthole.
Glad to have choices as a renter.
Rich are hated here. Poor, lazy and destitute define this city and its ersatz culture.

My problem is Wall St where also I could work is cold climate too: NY and Chicago (La Salle st.)

#205 Balmuto on 03.17.16 at 4:24 pm

No matter what, Jake should not move to Toronto until and unless he has secured a job there. Jobs that pay C$150k are not easy to replace and he is going from being a known entity to just another resume. Nobody cares what you made or said you made somewhere else. What they care about is your particular experience and skill-set and your overall fit with the organization. There is no guarantee that employers in Toronto will want to hire someone with his profile, even at the reduced salary that he’s willing to accept. Good employers also don’t tend to favour unemployed people. Get the job first!

#206 TurnerNation on 03.17.16 at 4:29 pm

HOW PATHETIC and neutered TORONTO IS:

http://notable.ca/toronto-area-man-post-creepy-public-letter-to-call-out-women-who-reject-him/

#207 Vundo on 03.17.16 at 4:36 pm

Advertisement for townhouses in a neighborhood in the deep southwest of Edmonton: https://tpc.googlesyndication.com/daca_images/simgad/15870152621995923365

Real estate never goes down? The expression on her face is the one she made when she realizes it does.

#208 Nuke on 03.17.16 at 4:49 pm

Have too much unused RRSP room that I want to use up. Simple tax shifting strategy.
In Dec 2016 make $60,000 spousal RRSP contribution. Claim 20k in 2016, 2017, 2018 for maximum marginal tax rate savings. Uses up all contributions by 2018.

In Jan 2019, non-earning spouse starts withdrawals but stays in lowest or non-tax position as over 65 with all credits including $2k pension credit and age credit. She moves funds to her TFSA. The tax difference over 25 months is about 20% to 36% between mine and hers give or take spousal deduction loss etc.

Is there something I am not seeing other than giving my wife $60k?

#209 conan on 03.17.16 at 5:02 pm

I think your girlfriend needs to move to Seattle. Great jobs with staying power are not be taken for granted.
You might hate Toronto. Here are some highlights,
20 hours a week stuck in rush hour traffic
The winter is not delightful, its all “snirt” snow plus dirt.
The Wynne Government.
The Toronto Maple Leafs
I could go on but many readers are from Toronto.

#210 Too much fraud in stocks on 03.17.16 at 5:24 pm

Valeant latest example of fraudulent stock values. How does a stock go from $347 to $36??? And this was a top 10 market cap stock in Vancouver?

No wonder people are piling into rea estate. You see what you get and with a growing population, it will only go higher. Definitely not plunge 90%.

Simpler solution: don’t buy individual stocks. This is why ETF index investing makes so much sense. And there’s no mortgage, no condo fees, no realtor, no house insurance, no grass, no property tax or raccoons. — Garth

#211 Exilled on 03.17.16 at 5:39 pm

Sir Garth:
Thinking of you, How you stood up to Hiel Harper. Last night i watched on TVO no less, a documentery called The Forecaster! A very smart guy named Martin Armstrong who saw the means to tell everybody what was coming, but nobody was listening! Sound familar!! It went on to tell the story on how the big banks and the legal profession tried to get him to break on his methods of Forecasting the future! Sounds Familiar, again. I suggest you see this episode, because it is what you saw coming, just you didn’t have to spend seven years in jail to prove it. Welcome to Canada. P.S. The people who tried to do him in all got employed at Goldman Sachs!! Sir you don’t have to post this! its just for your information. Have a great evening. i wish your family and Bandit well. PS look for the dogs in the story, they shine!!

#212 Yanniel on 03.17.16 at 5:44 pm

Mr. Frugal and Mark, some stats for you.

This is Canada wide:

Developer/Programmer Analyst 85,000 – $125,000

Source: https://www.roberthalf.ca/sites/roberthalf.ca/files/rht-pdfs/robert_half_technology_2016_salary_guide.pdf

In Toronto is even higher. Look up in that PDF for the “Local Variance” in Toronto.

I am sure developers can be found for less money in Toronto, but I can tell you I know lots of developers making more than 90k in Toronto.

Employers in Toronto many times take advantage of the newcomers (immigrants) who don’t know better. But newcomers learn fast and start switching jobs and in so, they (we) get a better pay and working conditions.

I know this first hand: both my wife and myself are software developers and both are immigrants. Our first jobs were crappy, but it has improved a lot.

#213 M on 03.18.16 at 2:16 am

Jake buddy.. do you have shit instead of brains ?
Babe comes stats in Seattle and forget about that idiotic place called Toronto. There’s nothing here buddy.. Just idiots in real estate.

My 5cents..

#214 Freeman on 03.19.16 at 2:23 am

Video: ‘Housing Bubble and Risk of Economic Collapse in Toronto, Canada 2015’

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Siqe-x8djrY