Mike Holmes is a great marketer. Bet more people know his name than Justin’s. Bieber, that is. And he looks so damn fetching in coveralls and tats.
His net worth is estimated at $25 million, pretty good for a guy from the wrong end of Toronto who started doing renos at 19 (he’s now 53, divorced, three kids). He’s done reno books, reno reality TV shows and is a voracious media hound, also with a track record of self-promoting charity work. His latest venture is another reno show on US cable.
Mike’s self-penned bio says: “Fueled by a larger-than-life personality, Holmes is the powerhouse behind a media empire that encompasses several award-winning television series, syndicated newspaper columns, bestselling books, DVDs, magazines, and his own line of personal protective equipment manufactured by 3M. Dubbed “Canada’s most trusted contractor,” his reputation for quality, integrity and honesty have international appeal.”
So, yes, rich and famous. But he also dropped out in Grade 11 and has made his money mainly as a media dude, trucking on his self-made rep as ‘trusted’ for his ‘integrity and honesty’. You bet. We need more guys like Mike.
But we also need people who live up to their own ethical icon. This is where Pascal has an issue.
“I read your blog every day,” he says, in the necessary suck-up. “I got this in the mail today about a real estate event at the Delta Ottawa City Centre. I have attached the letter because I am sure you will be very happy to read it… No limits, free cash, free breakfast, pre-approved fund and gifts. It looks like the real estate guys will continue until everything blows off because when you read this, it is pathetic.”
Here it is, one of many such events now sprouting like mold spores across Canada:
(Click to enlarge)
Anyone who doubts absurd housing valuations (up 17% in the past year, while inflation’s 2% and savings accounts pay .5%) are not the result of public speculation needs help. It’s not shadowy realtors, Chinese guys or the fact we’re running out of land. It is limited supply and swelling demand fueled by rampant real estate lust that poses the greatest risk – combined, of course, with money too cheap for our own good.
The seminar in Ottawa’s a good case in point, expected to attract hundreds of folks. Poor souls. They will come expecting insights, free info and muffins. They’re get an aggressive sales pitch, vapours and vultching techniques developed for the United States. Perhaps they just don’t understand their own market – so emblematic of every Canadian city outside of the GTA and YVR.
Ottawa real estate’s going nowhere fast. There is currently a whopping 206-day supply of resale houses (compared to 41 days in the GTA and 51 in Vancouver). In the last year average house prices relative to inflation have actually declined. Condos have been a disaster, falling in value almost 7%. And now, because things are unraveling, new listings are flooding onto the market – more than 2.300 fresh ones in February alone, an 11% year/year increase. In short, this is not the kind of market where consistent price increases help wipe away the risk of buying to flip. Nor it is the environment in which owners give up hope, walk away and let their houses be auctioned off for unpaid property taxes.
In fact, the US-based companies invariably behind these kinds of get-rich-without-effort real estate seminars don’t even try to Canadianize their offerings. In the Ottawa event people are told “tax deed auction properties” can be “turned into cash” when such auctions don’t exist. Additionally, securing $750,000 in “pre-approved real estate funding”, even if your credit score matches the IQ of a poodle, lacks credibility. And the kicker: “flip properties overnight”? Really?
Well, Pascal, pathetic is a good description. After the greatest advance in modern history for house prices, this come-on proclaims, “purchase real estate at all-time low prices.” Uh-huh. Like I said, this is American flotsam, prepared by the guys behind it all, Pathway Events, of Palm Springs, California. When they’re trotted Mike Holmes out in places like Jupiter or Fort Lauderdale in Florida (or Mississauga on March 18th), it’s precisely the same pitch. Pathway, of course, knows that human nature is the same on both sides of the border. Greed is greed, after all.
“Do you want to come and see TV star Mike Holmes? Can I book you a seat?” asked the young man when I called. What’s the pitch, I queried. “Mike will show how to generate quick cash flow and make a better financial future.” He said.
He forgot to mention it was Mike’s future.
194 comments ↓
THE OAK BAY PRICE CRUMBLE
The recent performance of Oak Bay’s housing market has shown us that SFH prices can fall at any time in that neighbourhood.
The Oak Bay price data for this chart was put together using the Victoria R/E board’s frankenumber price index so we can safely assume that Oak Bay’s 10.6% price plunge was worse than that.
. . . . . . . . . . . .House Prices. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .Percent Above/Below March 2010 Price Level. .
. . . . . . . . x = Regina, * = Oak Bay. . . . . . . . .
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+20% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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+15%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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….0%. . . x*. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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– 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . *. . . . . . . . . . . . .
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—————————————————————————–
. . . . . . March . . . . . . .March. . . . . .January. .
. . . . . . .2010. . . . . . .. 2012. . . . . . .2014. . .
(sources: indices of Victoria’s R/E board, Regina’s R/E board)
ALL OTHER MAJOR CANADIAN CITIES SAW STRONG PRICE GAINS OVER THE SAME PERIOD OF TIME
Regina, for example, saw house prices climb 16% while prices sank in Oak Bay.
INTEREST RATES FELL FROM 2010 TO 2014 WHICH STIMULATED CANADA’S HOUSING MARKET
Highly stimulative falling 5-year mortgage rates should have pushed house prices higher in Oak Bay, but that didn’t happen. Instead, Oak Bay mortgage holders got price rot.
All other Canadian cities reacted to the heavy stimulus in the expected way – by posting strong price gains.
This leads us to ask the question: what happened in Oak Bay?
VICTORIA REAL ESTATE “PROFESSIONALS” MADE PROMISES OF BIG PRICE GAINS IN 2010
Instead Victorians got 4 years of cascading house prices.
The same “professionals” are at it again. It’s part of what they do to get paid.
The same result will be realized: many Victoria families will buy near the peak and sell after prices have fallen significantly – sustaining heavy financial damage in the process.
NOTHING HAS CHANGED IN GREATER VICTORIA (OR OAK BAY) IN THE YEAR OR TWO THAT HAS PASSED SINCE THE LAST HOUSING PRICE DECLINE
Of course real estate “professionals” will say it’s different in Victoria this time – but they always say that. And they’ll always be wrong.
HOUSE PUMPERS CLAIMED BUYERS FROM CHINA DISCOVERED VICTORIA IN EARLY 2015 AND WERE DRIVING THE MARKET
I’ve seen no sales or price data from 2015 that supports that claim.
It’s interesting that this claim became a thing at the same time that interest rates were lowered in early 2015.
Real estate “professionals” prefer to talk about (false) market factors that they can spin as sustainable (for example: buyers from China suddenly discovering Victoria) while they avoid talking about the (true) market factors that obviously aren’t sustainable – such as today’s record-low mortgage rates.
Some things don’t change.
As a renter ($1800/mo), I thought, hmmm, maybe buying a home ($650k) at these low rates (3.5%) was a good idea… I put in my numbers and low-and-behold, IT’S BEST TO RENT!
Try it yourself and see what you get.
http://www.getsmarteraboutmoney.ca/tools-and-calculators/buy-or-rent-calculator/buy-or-rent-calculator.aspx
CANADIANS LOVE THE WARM WINTER WEATHER OF THE SOUTHERN US
In 2013-14 Canadians were the largest foreign investors in Florida real estate.
For Canadians, buying winter homes in US cities with warm winter weather is a popular thing. To deal with this demand, websites have been set up to help Canadians purchase homes in these desirable locations.
“Helping Canadians Purchase Real Estate In Naples, Fort Myers,… Cape Coral”
Arizona for Canadians
BEAUTIFUL HOMES CAN BE PURCHASED IN THESE AMERICAN DESTINATIONS FOR A FRACTION OF THE COST OF A SIMILAR HOME IN VICTORIA, FOR EXAMPLE
Let’s compare prices of similar homes:
House criteria:
* Min. 1,800 sq. ft. of main (primary) living area (above ground)
* Min. 3 beds, 2 baths, no older than 10 years with a double attached garage.
A house like this in bubbly Victoria would likely cost $750 K or more.
$144 K, Jacksonville, FL,
$133 K, Palm Bay, FL
$146 K, Vero Beach, FL
$146 K, Lehigh Acres, FL
$128 K, Loris, SC
(Continued)
I don’t remember having muffins at your last event in Vancouver, Garth. You need to up your game.
Garth: I am torn. I am a saver at heart but it is clear that low interest rates are going to be with the world for a long time – especially given the statements from the ECB today. It’s also clear that Canada will rely heavily on immigration (more than 300,000 new PRs this year if I remember correctly,) and that people will continue to move money out of China. If I buy this weekend in Vancouver, I can expect prices to go up a bunch in the next few months at least.. and then even if they go down or stagnate after that, I will have some protection from the immediate short-term appreciation and I will have a house. I will have eliminated the risk of being priced out. I only need one house (no plans like kids that require changing houses,) and I want to live in Vancouver for the rest of my life.
It is a stretch to pull together the $1.2 million or so I will need but I can pull it off. Given that the status quo seems like it will continue, hard to continue to wait it out.
It’s amazing what we can talk ourselves into, no? — Garth
I should start a pitchfork store before this whole RE bubble goes tits up. Of course I’ll give one to you for free, Garth. Want your name engraved on it?
$125 K, Atlanta, GA
$114 K, Gulfport, MS
$159 K, Semmes, AL (Mobile)
$128 K, Houston, TX
$123 K, Fort Worth, TX
$139 K, San Antonio, TX
$120 K, Coolidge, AZ (Phoenix)
$138 K, Coolidge, AZ
$150 K, Las Vegas, NV
THERE’S SIMPLY NO COMPARISON
* These beautiful US locations offer summer-like winter weather for Canadians.
* Anyone who lives in Victoria knows how much the locals complain about the 6 months of cold, rainy weather we get every year.
* The above US homes cost $100 K – $150 K.
* A similar home in Victoria would cost approximately 5 times as much – around $750 K or more.
ALL CANADIAN CITIES HAVE HOUSING BUBBLES
A comparison of prices of similar homes in any major Canadian market to the above US homes will make this clear. Remember that incomes in Canada and the US are approximately equal.
I remember attending your event in Toronto Garth. I was expecting hot babes and Harley’s.
the rich get richer
promoters promote. they can get thousands to give them thousands.
some ppl can’t even get a call back from their resume
that’s life
The size of a watch face is inversely proportional to the trustworthiness of the individual wearing it.
Haven’t there always been real-estate seminars?
You miss the point. Flipping is pure risk. Dangling $750K in front of credit-challenged people is unethical. And Mr. Holmes is using himself up. — Garth
Hate to be picky watched T2 at the White House he’s the one in the BROWN shoes. Lol
Vancouver and Toronto is where most immigrants come to and foreign money comes to. Not Ottawa.
This is like beating a dead horse.
With a population of a million, Ottawa is a major market. Try not to be a dick. — Garth
Prices continue to tumble in Oak Bay, BC.
3-bed house next door sold 18 months ago @ $735K.
Crashed to $1.010 million after being on the market two (2!)days.
Next street over house sold $525K 14 months ago. Big reno costing $400K. This one tanked to $1.35 million after 10 days on the market.
1990s pink stucco box plunged to $300K over ask two weeks ago.
OB market is as dead as a dodo, right?
To paraphrase Justin T., “It’s 2016.”
Or, it’s not 2010. It’s not even 2014. But you would have to be out on the ground to know that, not holed up in a basement with a Hello Kitty calculator.
Victoria Real Estate Update on 03.10.16 at 5:45 pm
ALL CANADIAN CITIES HAVE HOUSING BUBBLES
—————————————————-
Your comments are bang on,
The fact that it is far cheaper to build a house in the US, almost anywhere, with lumber likely grown and cut and transported from Canada, just shows how vastly overpriced ‘all’ real estate in Canada is.
YVR and the GTA?
Well them folks buying houses right now are living in some other distorted reality.
I posted a link to an article from the Montreal Gazette – for some reason it seems you don’t want this link published. I am wondering why? No DELETED, no nothing, just not published. Hmmm…
Because it’s been posted several times. Try to keep up. — Garth
Speaking of get-rich seminars anchored by Canadian Media Mavens, isn’t it time for another Greaterfool.ca roadshow / blog dog reunion?
Ottawa has been dead for some time now, about a year or so, prices have declined and condos plummeted.
What about Hamilton’s rental market? Insane cap rates, is it the next place to be? Anyone has any insights?? I’ve seen homes for 250K that can rent for $1,500 – $2,000 pe month.
DELETED (disrespect)
Why had I never been exposed to the “rent vs own” argument before this year? I never even realized it was an option to not buy a house. Millennial ignorance at its finest.
Do yourself a favor VICTORIA REAL ESTATE and just find a good deal on a house in Victoria and wait 3 to 5 years.Sell it in the spring and it will be the easiest $150,000 you’ll ever make.Then come back to this blog and thank me.
Do you think … just maybe … Mike took lessons from Tom Vu?
Dear Victoria real estate daydreamer,
RE Oak Bay,
Do you get out much? Seriously take the tin foil hat off and go for a little jog around Oak Bay. You might be surprised.
The more amazing part of it all will be the numbers of people that sign up for it thinking that they are going to become a flipper and Ottawa is going to become Vancouver or Toronto overnight. Kind of the way they suck people into timeshares while on vacation.
The scary part is when they tell these “believers” that they will just require a small deposit in the form of a bank draft from the LOC they just learned how to open at the bank in order to start their new career. To bad stupid doesn’t hurt.
Looks like Tom Vu has licensed his BS.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Vu
Vu’s investment theory involved finding “distressed” properties — foreclosures, bankruptcies, divorces, tax liens — and selling them at a profit.
China’s outflow. Some of it has landed in TO and especially in Vancouver
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/02/13/business/dealbook/china-exodus-flows-currency.html
Pascal, Fortran, and C.
Memories…
“It’s amazing what we can talk ourselves into, no?” — Garth
—————————————————————
He makes valid observations about the state of things. Particularly, that: 1) massive immigration will continue and 2) interest rates will remain super low for a very long time. So, there is no sense in waiting for RE to come down in price. Buy now. It’s a valid conclusion. What he gets from you Garth, is a flippant comment.
A) immigration remains at about .8% of the population, b) rates will be rising again in the U.S. this year and following later in Canada, c) if he has to struggle to buy, he’s courting undue risk. He’s rationalizing and got the reply he deserved. — Garth
Albertans and grasshoppers owe a lot of money! http://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/consumer-debt-skyrockets-21-3-per-cent-in-edmonton
I also talked with an HR person for a medium sized general contractor today. He said that in 2 weeks they received 3000 resumes for heavy equipment operator positions, and they have about 6500 emailed applications for the 19 job postings they have right now in Alberta and the territories. I couldn’t believe it, and neither could he.
Can Mike add the word “Whore” to his name?
C’mon…when is enough cash enough?
What a dick like I always thought he came across as.
Thanks for confirming it.
#14 Oak Bay Catastrophe on 03.10.16 at 6:11 pm…
It’s a sure sign that agents are getting desperate in Victoria when they start posting under multiple names and resort to name-calling.
Sad, very sad.
Any insight why construction cost – ignoring the price of land – is more expensive in Canada than in the US?
Materials, labor or tax?
Your old if you know who Tom Vu is.
Ben Carson endorsement is going to Trump. I’m calling he’s going to be his running mate.
Hi. I appreciate this blog for its financial advice. Having said that, I am deeply concerned with stifling various opinions here.
I own a home in Vancouver worth about $6 million at current market rates. Won the lottery you say? Hardly. I have 3 sons who will one day want a home in the neighbourhood they grew up in. At current prices, they will be priced out of this area.
What foreign investment has done to Vancouver is akin to a crime. I’m concerned that this blog tries to stifle discussion whether this is good for Vancouver. Oh, none of my new neighbours speak English or they would have acknowledged my approaches.
Fine. You just discussed it. Now sell. — Garth
“…new listings are flooding onto the market…” Garth
Montreal has more listings for sale than the sum of the next 5 biggest cities in Canada; chart:
http://www.chpc.biz/sales-listings.html
Ottawa has the least number of listings for sale compared to the other 5 cities; and Ottawa’s residential sales are tied with Edmonton at the bottom.
Ottawa listings have doubled. Look at momentums as well as totals. — Garth
I always thought that John Holmes was much more of a talented individual than Mike Holmes.
#2 Canadian Abroad
Thanks for the sight,my calculations from that sight are renting is better by $1,400,000,liking those numbers.
12 Paul on 03.10.16 at 6:04 pm
Hate to be picky watched T2 at the White House he’s the one in the BROWN shoes. Lol
…
I caught that too. It was just wrong
#29 Mike in Edm on 03.10.16 at 6:58 pm
This appears worse than Alberta 1982. Problem now is that there are more contractors than there were back in the 1980’s, which is masking the true unemployment rate.
I think Holmes is great – the guy knows how to do it. I mean it’s almost too easy – with a rep like his and peeps wetting their shorts to pray at his alter lol. Capitalism at its finest – not making anything useful but selling to a crowd that drank the koolaid and can’t get off the train. It’s like the time I was in Mexico 18 years ago and they offered free bottles of tequila if you “listened” to their seminar for time share LMAO
As Daryl Sutter would say “you can’t make chicken salad out of chicken sh*t”, although many scammers try!
What if the money flow really stop?
http://www.chinalawblog.com/2016/03/getting-money-out-of-china-the-reality-has-changed.html
On the other hand smart money are selling, let’s say some ex boss of a large equity firm is selling his house in Kitsilqno. Maybe just maybe he knows something the plebes don’t know… Like simple math
#33 Smokie
If Trump really wanted fun he’d pick Edward Snowden as a running mate..Ben Carson just for the black vote? What else does he bring?
As for the get together at the White House today and considering Michelle called The Mrs. her “soul mate”, I wonder if cross border trade will take on a whole new meaning tonight.
One last word on these “Flipper” ads..whenever I hear one on the radio, I just feel like I need to shower as I’ve been ear raped.
#40 Doug T.
I think I was at the same Time share boiler room (cough) seminar.
I was the guy who got kicked out for asking something called a “valid question.” Call me crazy, I was on vacation and just having fun.
It would be funny if a group of us showed up at Mikey’s big event and asked a few pointed questions as well. What’s the over/under in minutes we’d be asked to leave? I’d say 2.
No Tequila for moi.
Any word on how much his honesty, trust, and integrity sold for?
Wow thanks for letting me know about the Mike Holmes seminar breakfast- I was very lucky to get one of the last reservations at the Marriott for March 20th, So my best friend and I will be flying out on the Sat. to Attend.(Must have a spouse or business partner to attend. whats an extra plane tkt. thousands to be made). Will be glad to pass on the free gifts we recieve
#36 JSS
I know there’s a “big dick” joke in there somewhere…
http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/were-not-realtors-former-wholesaler-reveals-hidden-dark-side-of-vancouvers-red-hot-real-estate-market
Interesting article in the Post today, after living in North Van I had a few of these come to the owner of the basement suite I lived in. Makes you ponder about the 95% local claim.
Question one might want to ask Mike Holmes:
– do you actually have a ticket in any of the work you do on your TV show?
Yes, Justin had brown shoes. Sigh. However, I noticed that he was quick to fasten his top button. What’s the rule from the top button down: always, sometimes, never?
http://mikeholmesinspections.com/
These guys charge more than Carson Dunlop…
“Gee, Honey, I was expecting to meet Mike”
#12 Paul on 03.10.16 at 6:04 pm
#38 Smoking Man
Hate to be picky watched T2 at the White House he’s the one in the BROWN shoes. LOL
——————
T2 and his wife were also the ones in light grey and camel coats for the Remembrance Day and Corporal Nathan Cirillo Memorial Ceremonies.
I’ve never been so embarrassed about a Canadian PM.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/article27208468.ece/BINARY/w620/SKP512-Remembrance+Day+2015A.JPG
VREU,
As admirable as it is to want to rely on fundamental analysis, take it from a long time, now regretful bear, that fundamental analysis does not work.
If fundamentals really worked, Vancouver would not be 16 times family income.
Unfortunately, other variables come into play: foreign capital flows, mass immigration, boomers subsidizing offspring purchases.
Relying on 2014 data does not work anymore. The market was stagnant for some time, and you would like to believe it, but a lot can change and HAS changed in 1.5 years. The reality is that the Vancouver price contagion has spread to all parts of BC, including the Island.
Oak Bay Catastrophe is right….the market is moving. There might be a little bit of pent up demand from the new down payment rules, but the reality is that if this keeps up in the next month or two, the market is being driven by other factors.
I grew tired of the ‘flipper’ and ‘reno’ adverts on US TeeVee just before the US market peaked. It peaked all because of interest rates, and mortgage makers saying that new to their vocabulary “NO” ….
Not sure our Canadian neighbors have heard the word “NO” often enough regarding refinancing, HELOCas, LOC, even auto loans.
When the borrowing trough runneth dry, the indebted will be TOTALLY hosed!
(Please hurry with the liquidity crisis, by country or continent)!!
The only job in Canada that requires a high school diploma is police officer. You can get into college and university without grade 12. Even the securities and real estate exam for a license in those industries, doesn’t require grade 12. High school is really a waste of time. Instead of book smarts and liberalism, we should be teaching work ethic and how to get ahead in the world. I have a dog, I practice a simple training method, nothing in life is free. My dog wants out, he does something for it. He wants food, again he does something for it. Even affection, he does something. We need to NILIF kids!
We have a immigrant Korean man started work for us he had no prior income or past work history here, he took two months of paystubs to the bank and now has bought a 650,000 dollar home in Calgary and a new 60,000 truck. No risk apparently has been noticed from the bank. Sadly its going to cost us in the end.
Jeez Louise……I guess I haven’t been watching enough ‘Mike Holmes’ reno shows. I always thought of Mike as the guy who showed us all how poorly built so many Canadian homes were………from crappy foundtions to leaky roofs, mangled plumbing, to mouldy drywall……..half an hour of watching any of Mike’s shows had the effect of turning me off Canadian home ownership for good. Hey, Mike and Garth are the 2 guys who I can honestly say turned me off property ownership big time.
Ah well, beauty, as they say, is in the eye of the beholder.
42 What if on 03.10.16 at 7:18 pm
mr brown is very rarely on the wrong side of a deal….
Uh oh Mike drank the kool aid ,he’s believing his own b.s.
Personally, I think Gregor Robertson is more of a charlatan, but what do I know. Anyway, a 6 pack of Labatts to the first blogdog to post Garth’s post on Mike Holmes’ FB page! Sadly, I am still hoping Mike will renovate my moldy bungalow.
https://www.facebook.com/make.it.right.mike
#3:
One of the property sold for $1.95 million, eight months later flipped for $3.60 million. Few months later crashed to $144k, then to $50k. Now listed for $145k. Why Canadians think something like that will not happen in Canada?
Met a monstermortgage sales rep yesterday at a function, not RE related, in small talk he mentioned he thinks mortgage rates in Canada will stay the same for 3 years give or take, he recommends people going variable at this time. Thought it was interesting.
Personally I hope valuations come back to reality, with higher taxes coming, and even less $ for retirement, or to fill up my tank for that matter, less overall debt for the average Canadian is a good thing.
It’s official, the Trudeau Liberals are starving people.
http://business.financialpost.com/news/retail-marketing/troubled-safeway-acquisition-by-sobeys-slams-empire-with-1-36-billion-loss
Trudeau’s Zirp , Tax increases , dollar killing and high unemployment via a dead economy have brought in the good old ‘starve ’em till they vote for welfare’ that kept Newfoundland Liberal for decades.
But, just like Dada, Trudy’s managed to effectively use the well bribed Public Broadcaster to tell the Big Lie, that he was popular, when in fact all he’s getting from the public is a middle finger salute.
#31 Snowboid on 03.10.16 at 7:03 pm
It’s a sure sign that agents are getting desperate in Victoria when they start posting under multiple names and resort to name-calling.
———-
Uhh.. Oak Bay Catastrophe has it right. And I highly doubt he/she is a realtor. VREU has 0 clue and his posts are annoying.
Until recently he kept going on about prices in Victoria going down until it became impossible to deny they are increasing. Now it’s “Uh oh, another 2010! Things are going to crash again!”
Impossible to tell if we have hit another peak. Bottom could fall out tomorrow or it could keep up for a while.
Definitely bad time to buy in Victoria (40% sales to listing ratio last month, I’ll bet this month is worse). Plenty of buyers, very limited supply and that’s why everything is being bid up (along with cheap money and possibly some Vancouverites that have cashed out).
It goes in cycles. Prices go up, they correct. They go up, they correct. If you want a house now you pay the current price and take the risk. Oh well. If you can’t afford to buy and save for your retirement, then don’t buy. Easy peasy. If you can afford both, then measure your risks and make a choice.
For me the risks are too high right now (if I were in the market). Way too much bidding. I was watching pending listings roll in Monday and Tuesday (from places listed Friday). Crazy. Absolutely crazy. As long as the SF house was clean and in and in a decent area it went over asking. 10% or more. Place near me had around 50 viewings between Friday and Sunday. House inspection Monday and pending by Tuesday.
http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/untamed+torrent+well+water+threatens+multi+million+dollar/11775190/story.html?__lsa=f331-0fa9
I’m sure there will be comments about this link (sink hole threatens Vancouver!), but I couldn’t resist…….
Why would I want to believe a media man like Mike Holmes when I can get real estate advice from a true “flipper”:
https://pathwayevents.com/gallery-bruce/scottsdale-az/
#52 Goofy 2 Shoes on 03.10.16 at 7:55 pm
#12 Paul on 03.10.16 at 6:04 pm
#38 Smoking Man
Hate to be picky watched T2 at the White House he’s the one in the BROWN shoes. LOL
——————
T2 and his wife were also the ones in light grey and camel coats for the Remembrance Day and Corporal Nathan Cirillo Memorial Ceremonies
———————————————————-
Did you ever get the feeling that the world is a tuxedo and you’re a pair of brown shoes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efHVcgUajtA
Ottawa is a hole anyway. I don’t want to share a city with Trudeau. Plus it’s full of government employees….yuck.
#4 Angela
I don’t remember having muffins at your last event in Vancouver, Garth. You need to up your game.
/////////////////
Hahaha! +1
@#65 West Coast on 03.10.16 at 8:41 pm
http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/untamed+torrent+well+water+threatens+multi+million+dollar/11775190/story.html?__lsa=f331-0fa9
That fine example just goes to prove the saying, “If you can’t afford to hire a professional, just wait until you hire an amateur.”
FYI:
Teranet HPI shows house prices in Ottawa have been perfectly flat for the last 4 yrs (other than seasonal swing.)
As Teranet HPI is unadjusted for inflation, the real value has indeed been declining a little bit. (But not much, since inflation has been so low.)
Bram
@JSS36… #ForgetHolmes,YouWantReems!… #WayBackNostalgia,Or… #WhyDoSoManyPornStars… #Become[redacted]™…
[DailyMail] – Deep Throat star Harry Reems dies aged 65 after renouncing the adult industry, finding God and becoming a successful realtor
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2296700/Deep-Throat-star-Harry-Reems-dies-aged-65-renouncing-adult-industry-finding-God-successful-realtor.html
“Any insight why construction cost – ignoring the price of land – is more expensive in Canada than in the US?
Materials, labor or tax?
“
Far, far less competition in the supply chains if you’ve ever gone shopping in the US vs Canada. A freakin’ good set of bathroom faucets can be $300-$400 in Canada. Seen identical units that I was looking at, at a Home Depot in Minneapoolis, for a normal price of half.
“I also talked with an HR person for a medium sized general contractor today. He said that in 2 weeks they received 3000 resumes for heavy equipment operator positions, and they have about 6500 emailed applications for the 19 job postings they have right now in Alberta and the territories. I couldn’t believe it, and neither could he.”
Just par for the course in the tech/IT sector for the past many years. Well, not quite that bad, just hundreds of resumes. With that quantity, well, its gonna be pretty hard to be courteous to the applicants, even if the business wanted to.
What if the money flow really stop?
What if there never really was any ‘money flow’?
He’s using Don Cherry’s thumbs up sign.
#55 max on 03.10.16 at 8:04 pm
You can get into college and university without grade 12.
—————————————-
Maybe College of Business from back of a matchbook or Beaticians college or maybe Trump U.
If you want a ‘real’ degree (not Native Studies, Women’s Studies or Arts) you better have at least 85% average in core subjects.
Nursing students needed to have over 90% to get in a couple of years ago.
#34 Long time reader First time poster
“I have 3 sons who will one day want a home in the neighbourhood they grew up in.”
You have no idea what your 3 sons will want in the future. They may land jobs in England or meet and marry someone in Australia.
It sounds like you are using your children as an excuse to not make a rational grown up decision about your house. It is a drywalled box that someone may, incredibly, give you 6 MILLION dollars!
You will be a multi-millionaire! Rent, retire, enjoy life, take your sons on a round-the-world trip, if you like. You’re sitting on a life changing winning lottery ticket. All you have to do is sell. What’s the real problem? What do YOU fear?
Let go of the rice.
#34 Long time reader First time poster
Garth, I have the same problem as Mr. Long-time-reader-First-time-poster. HAM desperately want to buy my house for $6 mil but my wife doesn’t want to move because she likes living close to Lululemon HQ. What should I do?
# 64 understood by few
You’ve provided no proof to back what you’ve said about my previous comments.
Please post those quotes.
Also, I doubt that you actually read and understood my posts from today. If you had read and understood them you wouldn’t have written what you did.
There simply is no unbiased price data for Victoria. I’ve said this before several times. The local board stopped publishing the valuable and reliable median price data for individual areas of Greater Victoria at the end of 2013.
You’re provably a real estate “professional” so you obviously believe the biased frankenumber published by the local board.
All we know from the frankenumber is that SFH prices in Oak Bay fell at least 10.6% from 2010 to 2014. As I’ve said many times, if there has been any price improvement since 2014 it certainly wouldn’t be as much as what the local board claims through their frankenumber price “index”.
You seem very angry. Did you post under another name in the past until you made an @ss of yourself arguing unsuccessfully with me? I wouldn’t be surprised if that was true.
I take it Mike’s not familiar with the concept of “counterexample”.
The more I hear from the Liberals ,the more of an impression I get that they think Canada was in a cold civil war scenario with itself during the last decade and they are the big thaw.
But I thought they wanted to fight global warming…
M41BC
Common core curriculum = Radical Tree Huggers.
Go Trump
#7, Victoria real estate update
The houses you are showing are all crap. Where are the granite counter tops, marble floors, foriegn whirl pools, margaratelli hardwood floors, stainless steel appliances – all the things every new bride in Woodbridge expects?
#34 Long time reader First time poster on 03.10.16 at 7:05 pm
=======
Interesting what you say about your three sons. I reside Ontario. Was talking with my second year UBC son today. Said, basically, “Enjoy the ride because the only way you can afford splendiferous Vancouver is as a student where living on campus makes your life dreamily affordable!” And he said, “You know, funny thing you are saying this because my friends and I, we have been talking a lot about this and it seems to be talked about everywhere here… about how none of us can stay in the city we attended for our education… and many of my friends come from well off families.” I then said to him, “Ha, guess what? Your professors are all having the same conversation! They can no longer afford to be there either. Vancouver is a total disaster.”
long time reader: I own a home in Vancouver worth about $6 million at current market rates.
What foreign investment has done to Vancouver is akin to a crime. I’m concerned that this blog tries to stifle discussion whether this is good for Vancouver.
Fine. You just discussed it. Now sell. — Garth
he can sell it and discuss it. All he wants.
from yesterday: Sally Turner: In California, regulators voted in January to preserve so-called net metering, which requires utilities to purchase surplus power generated by customers with rooftop solar panels. But neighboring Nevada scrapped the policy – prompting solar companies to flee the state.
California and Nevada both get more sun than anywhere in Canada. Here’s a chart:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9f/SolarGIS-Solar-map-North-America-en.png
Sally makes another point: Utilities have argued that solar subsidies benefit more affluent homeowners at the expense of everyone else. With solar users buying less power – or even selling it, through net metering – that leaves fewer ratepayers to share the cost of traditional power generation, utilities say.
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/03/09/the-stimulators/comment-page-1/#comment-437365
Donald Trump. I hereby award you the platinum belt in Herdonomics.
He knows the herd as good as I do.
#52 Goofy 2 Shoes
”T2 and his wife were also the ones in light grey and camel coats for the Remembrance Day and Corporal Nathan Cirillo Memorial Ceremonies.
I’ve never been so embarrassed about a Canadian PM. ”
But it’s 2016. Get used to it.
Any thoughts how high gold can go up? i think 1,350 max.
Reminds me of Tom Vu back in the 80s.
“Do you want to be poor for the rest of your life?
Of course not, my fend.
What you neeed is income poducing poperty.”
#65 West Coast on 03.10.16 at 8:41 pm
”I’m sure there will be comments about this link (sink hole threatens Vancouver!), but I couldn’t resist…….”
Oh well, with the prices being paid for houses in that area, some were bound to be underwater with their mortgages eventually.
#12 Paul on 03.10.16 at 6:04 pm
Hate to be picky watched T2 at the White House he’s the one in the BROWN shoes. Lol
————————————–
But they are in navy blue suits. Black with navy? Really?
Ottawa real estate’s going nowhere fast. There is currently a whopping 206-day supply of resale houses (compared to 41 days in the GTA and 51 in Vancouver). In the last year average house prices relative to inflation have actually declined. Condos have been a disaster, falling in value almost 7%. And now, because things are unraveling, new listings are flooding onto the market – more than 2.300 fresh ones in February alone, an 11% year/year increase.
————————————————–
Feels like this on the streets for sure.
More condos on the way. More housing in FARHaven burbs!
206 day supply! What does that equal in actual units?
I share the title of tonight’s title.
Hammed! :)
97% conciseness that humans are causing climate change, that number has been the same since Al Gore started his new business.
You would think that as time goes by, you would lose a few, or gain a few, change the stat. 95% or 99 %.
MF, to you and to the Jews of the world, can you imagine if some wing nut looking at spread sheets, said it was 5.999 million Jews where killed in the holocaust.
That bastard would have his head ripped off, with elephant turd down his neck.
Climate entrepreneurs have stolen your shtic,
Holocaust happend, 100%. My dad told me, he was in the same camps.
But see how the copy cats think this tactic will work for them. They hi jacked education.
The only elephant in the room wants you bent over, not to pine you, that is a given, the trunk is going for your wallet, your kids wallet, and your grand kids wallet.
97% woo hoo they must be right.
Dr Smoking Man
Phd Herdonomics.
#32 Construction & #73 Mark
I don’t think construction costs are so much higher in Canada vs. US because of less competition in supply chain. We’ve got tons of competitors out there who are willing to sell at low margins and close up shop (bankruptcy) and reopen the next week with a new name.
I work in construction related industry and it’s just my 2 cents but I’d say in speaking to others in my industry in the US; it’s a combination of dollar exchange, additional import regulations and fees on non North American made goods, transportation, taxes, and the final nail is cumbersome government regulations. Take the changes in requirements for WSIB implemented in 2013 in Ontario specifically, it resulted in an increase in our subs labour rates to cover their added cost. Trades from out West starting to trickle back are shocked at the government imposed requirements to work with us. Plus with the number of people in construction rates are lower in Ontario than what they’re used to from Truck-nutz provinces. We also had a visit from ministry of labour during their “safety blitz” on working at heights last summer… we are a retail store with no ladders and thus no work taking place off the ground but because we’re associated with construction trades we still had to jump through the hoops and be good to get our gold star. All these regulations cost money to police and be in compliance with, that cost gets passed on one way or another.
VREU, I wish you would stop sucking and blowing at the same time.
If prices have been declining since 2010 in Victoria as you say, then how is it a bubble?
The definition of a bubble involves large price INCREASES over a short period of time. I don’t think price declines over the past 6 years would meet the definition.
But hey, don’t let facts or logic get in the way of your arguments
Not many people renovate on the west side of Vancouver anymore.I’m starting to see a lot of houses starting to get that run down look. If the attitude in the rest of the hood is anything like mine it is just keep the place going with as little money input as possible. No one is looking to buy a mediocre 1926 house. But a piece of property with a view will go in a day. Once the deal is done and the family moves out the excavator will have the house chewed up and hauled away in hours. Sad really! The appraised value of this house is $14,000.00
#14 Oak Bay Catastrophe on 03.10.16 at 6:11 pm…
It’s a sure sign that agents are getting desperate in Victoria when they start posting under multiple names and resort to name-calling.
Sad, very sad.”
#31 Snowboid
Yes the Victoria agents fighting over the slim listings and in panic mode as their clients lose another bidding war. Trouble in the Tea Garden.
Speaking of aquifers…………(#65)
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-oakridge-centres-15-billion-redevelopment-significantly-reduced/article28139865/
Oakridge development in Vancouver scaled back due to aquifer…
“the complications surrounding the Oakridge redevelopment were unique.The company said problems related to building around an aquifer underneath the site, as well as the difficulties of keeping tenants on board during eight years of construction, were both factors.”
……….at least someone, somewhere did their due diligence regarding the redevelpment of Oakridge in Vancouver.
# 94
You obviously can’t read.
I’ve recently explained that since 2000 in Victoria increases in house prices have far exceeded increases in rents and incomes. That makes it a bubble.
Please find the exact quote to back your claim that I said house prices have been declining every year since 2010. You can’t find quotes that done exist so don’t waste your time looking.
I’ve said that prices in Victoria are lower than in 2010 and that the local boards frankenumber index is upward biased.
You are likely a real estate “professional”, even though you’ll deny it. It seems to be a thing with your type that you have problems reading and understanding basic English.
You only make yourself look bad when you continually do this.
Perhaps I’ll post more charts for you do you actually understand what I write.
bout a house in saskatchewan for 90 grand, and the lady in the basement pays all the bills, for 700 a month. so i live for free forever. best of both worlds, no rent and upside on the house.
location is everything and in real estate the same thing. banks are reluctant to lend money these days, its not like it used to be they are quite conservative now.
life is cash flow, nothing else until you die, everything you insure and love all goes to well, with you in the end, in the dirt.
personal health doesnt mean anything, you either day as early as 60 as late as 95. who needs big trucks and rv’s etc anyway they all go to zero.
education, well i got some, great, so does 1 billion other people in the world with letters behind their names. no competitive advantage.
the only advantage to get ahead is to find stupid people ,and take advantage of them, back to sales. its everything, nothing happens without it starting as a sale, a house, a wife, a job etc. its all about selling. nothing has changed.
But, just like Dada, Trudy’s managed to effectively use the well bribed Public Broadcaster to tell the Big Lie, that he was popular, when in fact all he’s getting from the public is a middle finger salute.
—
Have you watched private broadcaster CTV lately?
Like tonight? Looks like Bell has been bribed heavily…
Maybe to maintain mobile, etc.cartel pricing?
Just par for the course in the tech/IT sector for the past many years.
I hire for this industry. You are wrong. You’re constantly wrong about this. Please stop lying repeatedly.
US continues booming
http://qz.com/636528/american-household-net-worth-just-hit-another-record-high/
#87 ES on 03.10.16 at 10:12 pm
”Any thoughts how high gold can go up? i think 1,350 max.”
In what currency are you speaking of? Canadian, Australian,?????
#92 Smoking Man on 03.10.16 at 10:50 pm
Modern day deniers have shifted tactics. Holocaust denial is taboo and socially unaccepted. As a result, the new enemies have shifted to holocaust trivialization.
(It happened but it wasn’t that bad, that many people weren’t killed it’s exaggerated…)
Things like that.
But it’s the same sh*t: Jews are manipulating/controlling/untrustworthy and “deserve” it. Still has it’s roots in the cesspools of Russian pograms and European ghettos from 150 years ago, when the Protocols proclaiming international Jewry as the evil enemy working behind the scenes for its own benefit were spawned.
Look at the disgusting drivel posted when 9/11 was mentioned here as evidence.
MF
Yup, Mike Holmes is taking the cash as a paid guest speaker to sell bogus real estate investments. Reminds me of Justin Trudeau’s old job where he skimmed 10s of thousands as a guest speaker for charities and non profits while he was a paid politician.
I’m originally a Vancouver boy but moved away in the mid nineties to work overseas and have just returned to the area. Luckily I have US status, and even luckier to discover the harbour town of Blaine, Washington, which is right on the border. There are many fully serviced, build able lots here in the 40 to 60k range. 150k gets you an ocean view. The West Side of Vancouver is approximately 40 minutes from here. It has the same climate, similar quality of infrastructure, schools and public institutions. Yet land there is changing hands at approximately 30 to 35 times the price of similar sized lots here in Blaine. Now one would obviously expect a big price differential between Vancouver’s West Side and Blaine, Wa..but more than 30x? This defies rational explanation.
#94 Okanagan Man on 03.10.16 at 11:02 pm
VREU, I wish you would stop sucking and blowing at the same time.
If prices have been declining since 2010 in Victoria as you say, then how is it a bubble?
The definition of a bubble involves large price INCREASES over a short period of time. I don’t think price declines over the past 6 years would meet the definition.
But hey, don’t let facts or logic get in the way of your arguments
**********************************
Guess you never considered the ‘slow melt’. Victoria Real Estate mentions Oak Bay (it is a desirable trendy neighborhood) – although I don’t really find it that appealing – to each their own though.
The rest of Victoria went through recent rise due to the down payment rules.
At the street level, coffee shops once full now sit empty most days. People packing their own lunches – making coffee at home. The slow melt is upon us. Remember what happened yesterday is not guaranteed tomorrow. Remember the US…nope most likely not!
Wait for it…
Re: #18 LifeXpert on 03.10.16 at 6:21 pm
Hamilton is way overpriced and not the place to buy anything to rent. Belleville would probably be the best place to buy and rent out a house since the property taxes are tax deductible. Taxes are on the high side but property prices there won’t tumble like other cities will.
T2’s Brown Shoes – so refreshing that we are commenting on the man’s wardrobe! But, on a substantive note, the brown shoes are all the rage right now. T2 is hip and marching to the beat of his hip tribe drummers. I know, it looks totally off, but there you have it. The blog dogs need to get out more. Just go to any trendy men’s fashion store and cast your eyes down to the footwear….it is all T2. I bet Putin and Trump will follow soon. This subject is truly ridiculous, but since you brought it up…..
Re: #87 ES on 03.10.16 at 10:12 pm
Strangely gold hasn’t really been monkey hammered by the U.S. FED this year. Someone big is about to get squeezed out at the U.S. $1291 level next week. Once it breaks the $1300 mark it should run to $1340 the next business day or two. As the U.S. election nears the U.S. dollar can only fall in value which will make silver not gold the best money maker of this year. December this year should be the best month for gold and the worst month for the stock market.
Houses in USA costs 150k for land and house but in Raincouver, to build a lane way will cost at least 250k all the way up to 400k. What’s are people driving here???
Who exactly is buying single family homes Vancouver as the average price approaches 2 million dollars?
And what do they do for a living?
I make 100k a year and can’t afford one.
A stool has three legs:
1st leg: confiscatory income tax rates. Were already there with 54% on incomes above 200,00. This income is not a lot by U.S. standards since salaries of government bureaucracs seem to start at 200,000.
2nd leg: Confiscatory capital gains taxation. Already mooted http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/taxes/why-a-capital-gains-tax-hike-might-be-on-the-table-in-the-march-22-federal-budget
3rd leg: confiscatory wealth taxes. Norway has .85%, France now .5% to .125% starting at 800,000 Euros.
Most people do not understand how the wealth tax works. They think it is just .5% or .85% but it is not. For instance an apartment that producing a cash flow of 100,000 with a cap rate of 5% is valued at 2m. The wealth tax of .85% would be 17,000 or 17% of cash flow which is already subject to confiscatory levels of income tax! If a wealth tax is only applied to financial assets such as stocks or bonds and not to revenue producing property then it would be highly discriminatory.
In every single instance; whether it be income taxes or sales taxes the taxes were introduced at a low level and then increased massively. This has also been the case with the wealth tax in France which was introduced at a rate of .25%.
The path to financial doom is clearly seen in Europe. Why would we be oblivious to its coming in Canada?
Nice now that they are un-employed and cashed strapped with a house and mortgage. Get them to join the millitary so they can be in the front lines of WW-III.
http://www.fortmcmurraytoday.com/2016/03/10/at-shell-place-job-fair-fleeing-town-not-an-option-for-most
#34 Long time reader First time poster on 03.10.16 at 7:05 pm
Hi. I appreciate this blog for its financial advice. Having said that, I am deeply concerned with stifling various opinions here.
I own a home in Vancouver worth about $6 million at current market rates. Won the lottery you say? Hardly. I have 3 sons who will one day want a home in the neighbourhood they grew up in. At current prices, they will be priced out of this area.
What foreign investment has done to Vancouver is akin to a crime. I’m concerned that this blog tries to stifle discussion whether this is good for Vancouver. Oh, none of my new neighbours speak English or they would have acknowledged my approaches.
Fine. You just discussed it. Now sell. — Garth
_____________________________________________
Any asset that goes up as a parabola ends the same way. Most people who win the lottery blow it, and you will be no different. Too bad for your sons, each of whom could have had nice security with a $2M balanced portfolio (5% gold of course).
Maybe you can carve the house in 3 pieces for the boys to fight over. I guess they will need to learn Mandarin.
The Vacant Condos in Vancouver
http://investmentwatchblog.com/the-vacant-condos-in-vancouver/
Lust, Chinese, Outside Money….no way
So let’s recap what went wrong/right for Canada in 2015, house prices up 15%-30%
WRONG
1) Oil Lower
2) Lower good paying jobs
3) Stock Market Lower
4) Pref index smashed
5) FX smashed
6) Higher taxes
7) Lower retail sales – i.e Target exit
So an economic storm, not something locals would a pump for a raging bull market for houses
RIGHT
1) Lower rates
So people are see this in daily lives, economic pain and they need to understand why Garth – cue the Chinese, Criminals or whoever……
It has to be clear that this raging bull market is simply caused by the lowest debt service ratio in the world! The money has to come from somewhere…
Domestic household debt numbers (a very large year/year increase) answer your question. It came from us. — Garth
Ahh yesss
Mike Holmes, the “honest contractor that tells it like it is”………
Well he found the schtick and played it for millions.
Basically a promo show for other trades.
A salesman.
Nothing more
#52 Goofy 2 Shoes on 03.10.16 at 7:55 pm
#12 Paul on 03.10.16 at 6:04 pm
#38 Smoking Man
Hate to be picky watched T2 at the White House he’s the one in the BROWN shoes. LOL
——————
T2 and his wife were also the ones in light grey and camel coats for the Remembrance Day and Corporal Nathan Cirillo Memorial Ceremonies.
I’ve never been so embarrassed about a Canadian PM.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/article27208468.ece/BINARY/w620/SKP512-Remembrance+Day+2015A.JPG
=====================================
I suppose that we should just be grateful that T2 didn’t show up wearing a German helmet like his asshole father did in order to protest our involvement in WWII.
Today’s headlines are awash with photos of our glorious elite leaders cavorting. Oh what future prosperity they will bring us. Jobs for working families like you and I. Always in the future they will make this country great again!
Fresh from hanging with elite actors in Davos. Sometimes they become our leaders. Actors, Ronald Regan, Arnold Schwarzenegger. Drama teacher anyone?
While T2 eats Steak in Washington, Alberta eats cake.
Employment Change FEB -2.3K
Full Time Employment Chg FEB -51.8K
Unemployment Rate FEB 7.3%
Teachers; Wynne and T2 are oblivious to the elephant in the room. Hard ass un schooled men out of work in Alberta.
7 Harsh Realities Of Life Millennials Need To Understand
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-10/7-harsh-realities-life-millennials-need-understand
canada’s most expensive rental market, 2012
http://www.nunatsiaqonline.ca/stories/article/65674iqaluit_canadas_most_expensive_rental_market
Great post today Garth.
The thing these people attending the seminars don’t realize is that if there was a sure fire way to make easy money, then people wouldn’t be giving seminars on how to do it, they’d be out making that easy money themselves.
I should start a seminar explaining this, and charge $199.99 admission, with a free breakfast.
This should settle the extremely important debate:
QUOTE: “As a general rule, a Black Formal shoe will go with nearly all suit colours. However, you can make more of an impact if you go for a brown or tan shoe when wearing either a Navy/Blue or Light Colour suit.”
Ronaldo on 03.10.16 at 11:57 pm
#87 ES on 03.10.16 at 10:12 pm
”Any thoughts how high gold can go up? i think 1,350 max.”
In what currency are you speaking of? Canadian, Australian,?????
================================
USD. Thanks
CBCUpdated
Jobless rate near 3-year high, as Canada loses 2,300 jobs in February
CBC Update: ” Jobless rate rises to 7.3% in February as Canada loses 2,300 jobs”
The price of r/e on Toronto is the new norm. Thanks to this taking advice from the greaterfool, I am the real fool. Priced out and pan handling.
Batman Alert !!!!!!
Bet accordingly.
Hey Garth –
‘…(compared to 41 days in the GTA and 51 in Vancouver)’
The other day you accused me of ‘elitism’ (!) when I pointed out that most people would rather live in YYZ and YVR, rather than some snow-covered, rock-infested hinterland. Yet whenever you talk about hot housing markets where buyers are lining up, it’s always YYZ and YVR you mention.
Vindication is a nice feeling.
That is ugly. Not all the job losses are in either AB or SK.
Then BC real estate listings are slowly increasing as expected. Time to cash in on the hype is now, or was actually last year depending on location or the quality of the shack.
Picture of BHO and T2… why are Americans angry at their President? T2 is a kid. Who is responsible for this crazy mess?
Maybe Mike Holmes is really smart! Maybe he sees what is coming and is trying to milk the system one last time for all its worth, before the house of cards comes crashing down.
Who talked some sense into that pompous, idiot, ingrate, degenerate Donald Trump last night? Incredible, I did not hear “Little Marco” or “Lyin’ Ted” and in general it was boring. Watching Trump on the stage before last night was entertaining in so many ways. Sort of like the old days of going to the circus and watching the clowns spray water on each other. This debate was calmer. Where is Trumps idiocy and goofiness with those repeated lines? The others on the stage pretty much passed him up. Marco Rubio wanted nothing to do with him, John Kasich with his hope and optimism platform, ignored Trump. Ted Cruz occasionally debated Trump by pointing out that his political knowledge is naïve. Trump didn’t bite and in fact cowered in the corner probably trying to figure out what to say and look intelligent however by the time he could come up with something the question was long dead. Trumps policy knowledge is at best lackluster and built up on audience feedback. He blatantly died on the stage with Cruz debating him on his skimpy policy elucidations. Trump’s was carpet bombed on Cuba. Completely uninformed about Cuban policy. Rubio has an astoundingly profound knowledge, which he used on Trump. The Trump supporters are simpleton and appear uninterested in the intricacies of his policies. All they know is he beats his chest as the biggest baboon in the house.
Potash seems like a steal at these levels.
18 LifeXpert on 03.10.16 at 6:21 pm
“What about Hamilton’s rental market? Insane cap rates, is it the next place to be? Anyone has any insights?? I’ve seen homes for 250K that can rent for $1,500 – $2,000 pe month.”
I was in the Hamilton rental market until recently, now completely out. It’s been a while since it was identified as the “REIN”’s “Hottest Rental Market” (or whatever). That was crap, but maybe it was a good place to invest at one point. It’s over now, anyway, many neighbourhoods are overpriced.
Where are these homes for $250,000 that can rent for $1,500 – $2,000? Mountain? East Hamilton? If the latter, I’m guessing they’re actually cut-up into a few units. I think one should anticipate tenant issues in those.
There are a lot of neighbourhoods worth avoiding in Hamilton. Those that are not worth avoiding, I don’t think many homes can be had for $250,000.
Maybe Brantford? I dunno, I think things are too expensive there, too. Starting out as an amateur (like I am) right now is probably a bad idea. If you’re really experienced maybe you can find good deals. Maybe.
#34 Long time reader First time poster on 03.10.16 at 7:05 pm
I own a home in Vancouver worth about $6 million at current market rates. Won the lottery you say? Hardly. I have 3 sons who will one day want a home in the neighbourhood they grew up in. At current prices, they will be priced out of this area.
What foreign investment has done to Vancouver is akin to a crime. I’m concerned that this blog tries to stifle discussion whether this is good for Vancouver. Oh, none of my new neighbours speak English or they would have acknowledged my approaches.
———————
We sure are an entitled bunch of whiners here in Canada!
The Chinese are your meal ticket. Sell and then you are really worth $6Mil. Move and live off the investment. When the time comes, each son gets an inheritance of well over $2mil.
That is unless each son learned from his myopic father that Vancouver is the centre of the universe!
I don’t see what’s wrong with having a bunch of empty condos in Vancouver. In fact, it’s the best of both worlds if you live there. There’s a whole bunch of condo owners who are paying condo fees and property taxes, but not using any of the services they’re paying for. Meanwhile, with less people on the street, it’s easier for the people who actually live there to get to work and the beach!
Trudeau celebrates in Washington with the guy mainly responsible for driving Canada into recession. But despite the reality of starvation for millions of Canadians his Trudeau Liberal Party calls his kow tow to Obama ” a victory”.
That may be so for the elite civil service and CBC Canada Haters, but for Canadians Trudeau is a disaster. He’s purposeful in making things worse for Canada and Canadians.
“We’re back” he says. Right back to the 1930’s. Maybe if the Trudeau Liberals drive enough people into poverty they will turn Canada into a liberal ‘voting welfare by necessity’ state like they turned Newfoundland into. This is what Liberal social engineering looks like people. An elite civil service devised poverty for the people and desperate immigrants arriving who’ll vote for welfare over progress.
Isn’t that why the Trudeau Liberals will bring in more than 350,000 new unskilled uneducated third world escapee’s this year?
http://www.bnn.ca/News/2016/3/11/Canada-sees-a-loss-of-jobs-in-February-unemployment-rate-ticks-higher.aspx
VREU….#98 “…..I’ve said that prices in Victoria are lower than in 2010”
Okay, I get it now, so let us show data from 2010 to 2014 when it is 2016 to show the market is declining.
Yeah that makes a lot of sense in relation to where the market is today. I guess we will have to wait for the official spring data to see where the market is in 2016.
My observations have been that is has been brisk due to limited product and ample demand.
VREU
Here are the February numbers;
“The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in February, 2015 was $557,000. The benchmark value for the same home in February 2016 has increased by 14.7 per cent to $638,700”
Yeah that sure shows a decline.
Sorry folks, but home prices have nowhere to go but up from here, that’s because it is official that interest rates around the world will not be going up for AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 YEARS. Yes, that’s right, interest rates in Canada, Europe, and the U.S. are stuck at near zero for the next 10 years or more. That’s going to have the effect of making homes the ONLY investment vehicle for the masses for the next 10 years, easily making almost all houses rise by 10% per year for each year of the next 10 years.
Don’t just take my word for it, read it here:
( Markets betting on near-zero interest rates for another decade ) http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKCN0WB1QG?sp=true
QUOTE: “LONDON (Reuters) – World markets may have recovered their poise from a torrid start to the year, but their outlook for global growth and inflation is now so bleak they are betting on developed world interest rates remaining near zero for up to another decade.”
So what does that mean for people in Toronto where houses cost $900,000 ? It means that a house will cost $900,000 x 1.1)Y10 = $2.33 Million in 10 years from now, a gain of 159% from current prices, all in just 10 years.
I just called my lady friend who has a condo on the Toronto lakefront. She is struggling to meet the monthly payments on her current condo and desperately wants to find a way to earn some extra cash to make the payments. She has been thinking of buying two townhouses and then renting them out for some extra cash. I originally told her it was a bad idea, but now that I know that houses will almost triple over the next 10 years I just told her to go ahead, so she’s using her $30,000 in savings to put a down payment on a $1.1 Million townhouse in Toronto. Houses are the best bet in town these days.
Has anyone seen any news articles about more layoffs at Enbridge this week? I can’t find anything, but know a massive round of layoffs just happened as I have a very close friend working there. He originally told me early 2016 that he figured another round was coming in Feb, but looks like he was off by about 1 month. He estimates it’s in the hundreds
#39 JSS on 03.10.16 at 7:16 pm
#29 Mike in Edm on 03.10.16 at 6:58 pm
This appears worse than Alberta 1982. Problem now is that there are more contractors than there were back in the 1980’s, which is masking the true unemployment rate.
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Oh I fully agree. As I just commented about Enbridge, they LOVE to hire contractors (my friend is one of them) rather than employees. When they get let go, no severance, no pension, and no EI (unless they contribute themselves)
Victoria RE update:
If you showed those space wasting charts in my company you’d be fired. Useless when you could say the same thing in a few words.
So basically Mike Holmes is to houses what David Suzuki is to the environment. Just another leech.
Read more books, less articles.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/03/08/read-more-books-and-fewer-articles-read-more-histo.aspx
“I hire for this industry. You are wrong. You’re constantly wrong about this. Please stop lying repeatedly.”
Not lying at all. No need to, the fact that most IT firms that do even the most rudimentary of advertising are being buried in resumes speaks for itself. There have been many posters to the greaterfool comments board alone who have verified everything I’ve said about the Canadian IT sector and its employment situation.
“It is limited supply and swelling demand fueled by rampant real estate lust that poses the greatest risk – combined, of course, with money too cheap for our own good.”
Garth: Finding situations like that is PRECISELY what smart speculation is all about!
And you derride it?!!!!
And praise the ‘Balanced portfolio’ B.S.?!
Get back to us when you learn about risk. — Garth
Some things you just can’t avoid … like food, energy, consumer staples, weapons/technology, financial services, and yes, shelter. It’s why smart money always has a stake in these areas.
#144 Mike in Edm on 03.11.16 at 11:03 am
#39 JSS on 03.10.16 at 7:16 pm
#29 Mike in Edm on 03.10.16 at 6:58 pm
—
Contractor role is great if you’re retired, collecting company pension, want some more money, and the economy is running hot – like Alberta back in 06/07.
The payrate was great back then. Project controls $65+/hr; project mgmt $100+/hr. Nice gig for up to two years of contract work.
Well, guess we won’t see these kinds of days for at least another 15 years. God, I miss those days…
#134 James on 03.11.16 at 10:10 am
Who talked some sense into that pompous, idiot, ingrate, degenerate Donald Trump last night? Incredible, I did not hear “Little Marco” or “Lyin’ Ted” and in general it was boring. Watching Trump on the stage before last night was entertaining in so many ways. Sort of like the old days of going to the circus and watching the clowns spray water on each other. This debate was calmer. Where is Trumps idiocy and goofiness with those repeated lines? The others on the stage pretty much passed him up. Marco Rubio wanted nothing to do with him, John Kasich with his hope and optimism platform, ignored Trump. Ted Cruz occasionally debated Trump by pointing out that his political knowledge is naïve. Trump didn’t bite and in fact cowered in the corner probably trying to figure out what to say and look intelligent however by the time he could come up with something the question was long dead. Trumps policy knowledge is at best lackluster and built up on audience feedback. He blatantly died on the stage with Cruz debating him on his skimpy policy elucidations. Trump’s was carpet bombed on Cuba. Completely uninformed about Cuban policy. Rubio has an astoundingly profound knowledge, which he used on Trump. The Trump supporters are simpleton and appear uninterested in the intricacies of his policies. All they know is he beats his chest as the biggest baboon in the house.
……………
You are mentally disarmed and ripe for a financial rape heading for your wallet. T2 is nothing more than an embarrassing fairy, selling his tinker bell narrative hoping for kisses and hugs. What a moron, did you see him speak at the American University today. I’m a Feminist. I can see all CTV Social viewers the 20 to 30 year olds that are emotionally 5 to 9 years old eat up this fairy tale he sells.
Narrative, it’s a story, fiction, void of reality. He kept bringing it up, over and over. What is it with you over schooled lefties that keeps you blind to the financial asteroid that T2 , Wynne, Butts, and Notaly have directed to crash on to your house and destroy everything you hold dear.
Build the god damn pipelines.
Suzuki, Butts, T2, Wynne, and Notaly should all be charged with treason, economic terrorism. Lock them up and throw away the key
Alberta’s unemployment rate surpasses Quebec’s for first time in nearly 30 years
Prairie province saw its jobless rate jump to 7.9 percent.
http://www.macleans.ca/economy/business/albertas-unemployment-rate-surpasses-quebecs-for-first-time-in-nearly-30-years/
#150 young & foolish on 03.11.16 at 12:56 pm
Some things you just can’t avoid … like food, energy, consumer staples, weapons/technology, financial services, and yes, shelter. It’s why smart money always has a stake in these areas.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
the smart money has been in these areas because for thousands of years these areas have been held in a monopoly by tyrants and bankers.
The technology based sharing system and micro corporations like uber drivers etc is taking over and will replace inefficient govt and corporate systems.
To clarify:
I am not a real estate agent. Never have been.
I am a retired speechwriter.
I have lived in Oak Bay since 1995 in the same house.
I’m not in the market, I like my house.
I also go out and walk around.
I talk to people in the community, too.
It is amazing that there are some properties in the GTA that are listing for higher this week than last. It appears “buy now or buy never” has turned into “buy this morning not this afternoon”. Admit it people, this type of demand will never relent. It’s like demand for Justin Bieber tickets. If you can’t buy now in TO, try Belleville. I hear its nice in the summer.
Make no mistake people are broke, Everyone wonders why all the homes for sale are staged. Well it’s because the owners furnishings are crap or none existing.
All the closets are filled with BROWN shoes. lol
Canadian Housing & Mortgage Investment Corporations – Time To Worry?
http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/03/canadian-housing-no-bubble/?all=1
We are not convinced that the housing market is about to crash. Nonetheless, we remain extremely cautious.
Canada is vulnerable because its households are heavily indebted and its housing market is overheated. The CMHC just released its quarterly Housing Market Assessment report, which found the following among its conclusions: “Overvaluation and overbuilding are the most prevalent problematic conditions observed across the 15 centres covered by the HMA. Overvaluation is detected in 8 centres while overbuilding is detected in 7”.
There will always be real estate scams, there will always be financial scams. If it seems too good to be true it is, and if you are wondering who the guy being scammed at the poker table is, you are the guy. Always has been, always will be, nothing new to see here.
As for you blogdogs who can find nothing better to comment on but the Prime Minister’s choice of footwear, you are even more pathetic than you appear.
125 Daisy Mae on 03.11.16 at 9:18 am
I heard brown shoes dont make it….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQe9B_VBVqM
#56 Bobby13 on 03.10.16 at 8:05 pm
We have a immigrant Korean man started work for us he had no prior income or past work history here, he took two months of paystubs to the bank and now has bought a 650,000 dollar home in Calgary and a new 60,000 truck. No risk apparently has been noticed from the bank. Sadly its going to cost us in the end.
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Classic example of rich family abroad co-signing or wiring funds to Canada.
I just saw the latest Canadian consumer debt numbers. Yikes!
#210 Retired Boomer WI on 03.10.16 at 4:08 pm
or there is NO incentive for the able bodied to work.
Just my opinion, and I am sort of a hard hearted SOB when it comes to living off the sweat of others -sorry-
_______________________________________
I agree completely boomer. I actually posted something along these lines a couple of weeks back. The guys at the plant, where I work, would quit in a heartbeat to stay home and play x-box all day. As long as they have smokes and mcdicks.
I’m not educated on public policy. But sometimes I see a large disconnect between those “representing” the working class and the views of the people in it. I think there are too many academics and left-wing advocates who haven’t spent much time in these people’s shoes. Or if they did it was many, many years ago. Rachel Nutley comes to mind.
May explain the rise of Trump. A working class of people sick of being told that somebody else knows what’s best for them.
These are truly evil people
Attorney General Loretta Lynch Wants to Prosecute Climate Change Deniers.
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/03/11/attorney-general-loretta-lynch-wants-to-prosecute-deniers-heres-why-shell-fail/
#147 Kenchie on 03.11.16 at 11:50 am
Read more books, less articles.
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That’s good advice. I focused more on reading books a year ago. Definitely increases depth of knowledge.
One problem I had, along with a lot of people, was I lacked the attention span to read books cover-to-cover. What can I say? I’m a millennial.
Found a little trick to get around it though. I just open up books and read chapters at random. I don’t even try to read in order anymore. I find it holds my attention span and I don’t have to read prologues, etc. If it’s interesting and I’m missing background I backtrack.
#112 Joe2.0 on 03.11.16 at 1:55 am
Who exactly is buying single family homes Vancouver as the average price approaches 2 million dollars?
And what do they do for a living?
I make 100k a year and can’t afford one.
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Exactly. And what bank would lend anywhere near that amount to a 100K salary guy?
It’s obvious our politicians have sold the country out – Vancity in particular – opened the flood gates to sheltering foreign money from taxes.
Unless the whole population is on a little housing musical chairs, but when will the music stop?
VREU
Here are the February numbers;
“The Multiple Listing Service® Home Price Index benchmark value for a single family home in the Victoria Core in February, 2015 was $557,000. The benchmark value for the same home in February 2016 has increased by 14.7 per cent to $638,700”
Yeah that sure shows a decline.
————–
VREU is having a ‘does not compute’ moment when the fundamentals do not make sense, yet prices keep going up.
Welcome to the world of Vancouver housing analysis VREU.
Nothing has seemingly changed right VREU? Rates are the same, migration is the same, the economy is the same in Victoria, but what could possibly be different? Hmmm…
Look to Vancouver VREU, because the domino effect is here coupled with the nasty influx of foreign capital that will soon make Victoria even more unaffordable then it already is.
Take a trip to West Vancouver VREU – it is foreshadowing what will happen to your lovely town. High priced homes that sit empty or replace character homes; empty houses used a store of (illegal) wealth, spiking rental rates; private schools being overwhelmed by non-local demand; communities that slowly disappear as mom and pop shops are driven out of business because buyers fail to contribute or support the local economy (because they don’t live there); and the installation of high end stores that cater to, well, not your crowd VREU, nor local incomes.
You have officially been warned that the Vancouverization process as begun. And your ‘does not compute’ moment will last years as they do with the best of us bears, but in the end, you will be left out in the dust. Take it from a long time bear.
Unknown hackers got away with about $80 million, one of the largest known bank thefts in history.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-bangladesh-malware-idUSKCN0WD1EV
#156 Oak Bay Catastrophe
“I am not a real estate agent.”
That what all real estate agents who post comments say.
Prove it.
It’s always the same story with real estate agents – agent posts lies, false information (with no links or facts) and false accusations on Garth’s blog. Then the agent says they’re not an agent. When agent gets busted for lying and posting false information the agent drops the current name and posts under another.
Some things never change.
#106 Paul Johnson on 03.11.16 at 12:24 am
I’m originally a Vancouver boy but moved away in the mid nineties to work overseas and have just returned to the area. Luckily I have US status, and even luckier to discover the harbour town of Blaine, Washington, which is right on the border. There are many fully serviced, build able lots here in the 40 to 60k range. 150k gets you an ocean view. The West Side of Vancouver is approximately 40 minutes from here. It has the same climate, similar quality of infrastructure, schools and public institutions. Yet land there is changing hands at approximately 30 to 35 times the price of similar sized lots here in Blaine. Now one would obviously expect a big price differential between Vancouver’s West Side and Blaine, Wa..but more than 30x? This defies rational explanation.
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Politicians have sold the city out – money under the table anyone?
#140 Okanagan Man
You reply can’t read. This is getting ridiculous.
Are all real estate “professionals” as clueless?
Again, I invite you to read my post that contains the chart. What does it say?
If you can’t figure it out and tell me what it says I’ll post more charts for you.
#134 James on 03.11.16 at 10:10 am
Who talked some sense into that pompous, idiot, ingrate, degenerate Donald Trump last night? Incredible, I did not hear “Little Marco” or “Lyin’ Ted” and in general it was boring. Watching Trump on the stage before last night was entertaining in so many ways. Sort of like the old days of going to the circus and watching the clowns spray water on each other. This debate was calmer. Where is Trumps idiocy and goofiness with those repeated lines? The others on the stage pretty much passed him up. Marco Rubio wanted nothing to do with him, John Kasich with his hope and optimism platform, ignored Trump. Ted Cruz occasionally debated Trump by pointing out that his political knowledge is naïve. Trump didn’t bite and in fact cowered in the corner probably trying to figure out what to say and look intelligent however by the time he could come up with something the question was long dead. Trumps policy knowledge is at best lackluster and built up on audience feedback. He blatantly died on the stage with Cruz debating him on his skimpy policy elucidations. Trump’s was carpet bombed on Cuba. Completely uninformed about Cuban policy. Rubio has an astoundingly profound knowledge, which he used on Trump. The Trump supporters are simpleton and appear uninterested in the intricacies of his policies. All they know is he beats his chest as the biggest baboon in the house.
—————————————————————-
It’s really pretty sad that you are trying to sound all “intellectual” by trash talking Americans. If their views differ from your own then by definition they MUST BE STUPID. Under different circumstances I’m sure you would be freaking out and condemning that same sort of behaviour. But I get it, it’s a one way street with you guys. You’ve probably got a closest full of brown shoes.
#78 Victoria Real Estate Update on 03.10.16 at 9:23 pm
All incorrect assumptions. I definitely do not work in real estate (if you’ve read anything I’ve posted you’d know that) and I haven’t “argued” with you before and I’m not angry. The fact you’d assume such things is revealing of your ego though (as is your handle). Changing handles to attack you? I’m surprised you can fit into the same room as your ego. You are mistaking my criticism of your posts as ad hominem. But when your ego is so tied up in your online presence that isn’t surprising. It’s common in basement dwellers.
The whole conspiracy of real estate “pumpers” is tiring. Of course realtors are going to talk favourably about real estate and cling onto any grasp of anything positive for housing prices. One person commuting from Nanaimo to Vancouver and it’s “better get in before all the Vancouver people buy up island real estate!”. Yeah it’s BS, but it’s just their skewed perspective. People have to choose to believe it for it to affect prices. It’s not like you can ban realtors from talking about real estate.
Currently people in Victoria are hyped, for whatever reason. Human nature. People get scared/excited and react emotionally. Moaning about it does nothing. Pointing fingers does nothing. It’s the people who are bidding places up that are to blame, but you can’t stop human nature (just like you can’t stop stupid people from breeding).
Anyone who was holding out on buying in Victoria hoping for prices to drop further missed out on this cycle.
#152 Smoking Man
Narrative, it’s a story, fiction, void of reality. He kept bringing it up, over and over. What is it with you over schooled lefties that keeps you blind to the financial asteroid that T2 , Wynne, Butts, and Notaly have directed to crash on to your house and destroy everything you hold dear.
Build the god damn pipelines.
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I think I love you. LOL
#152 Smoking Man on 03.11.16 at 1:39 pm
#134 James on 03.11.16 at 10:10 am
Who talked some sense into that pompous, idiot, ingrate, degenerate Donald Trump last night? Incredible, I did not hear “Little Marco” or “Lyin’ Ted” and in general it was boring. Watching Trump on the stage before last night was entertaining in so many ways. Sort of like the old days of going to the circus and watching the clowns spray water on each other. This debate was calmer. Where is Trumps idiocy and goofiness with those repeated lines? The others on the stage pretty much passed him up. Marco Rubio wanted nothing to do with him, John Kasich with his hope and optimism platform, ignored Trump. Ted Cruz occasionally debated Trump by pointing out that his political knowledge is naïve. Trump didn’t bite and in fact cowered in the corner probably trying to figure out what to say and look intelligent however by the time he could come up with something the question was long dead. Trumps policy knowledge is at best lackluster and built up on audience feedback. He blatantly died on the stage with Cruz debating him on his skimpy policy elucidations. Trump’s was carpet bombed on Cuba. Completely uninformed about Cuban policy. Rubio has an astoundingly profound knowledge, which he used on Trump. The Trump supporters are simpleton and appear uninterested in the intricacies of his policies. All they know is he beats his chest as the biggest baboon in the house.
……………
You are mentally disarmed and ripe for a financial rape heading for your wallet. T2 is nothing more than an embarrassing fairy, selling his tinker bell narrative hoping for kisses and hugs. What a moron, did you see him speak at the American University today. I’m a Feminist. I can see all CTV Social viewers the 20 to 30 year olds that are emotionally 5 to 9 years old eat up this fairy tale he sells.
Narrative, it’s a story, fiction, void of reality. He kept bringing it up, over and over. What is it with you over schooled lefties that keeps you blind to the financial asteroid that T2 , Wynne, Butts, and Notaly have directed to crash on to your house and destroy everything you hold dear.
Build the god damn pipelines
________________________________________
Sorry dumb-ass I wasn’t discussing T2 so what has that to do with the idiot south of the 49th? Oh I forgot your his fake Canadian mouthpiece or should I say fake hair piece. Go to your Casino, drink heavily then send us a rebuttal.
Brought to you by TRUMP FOR THE CHUMPS!
Interesting read on the heals of the headlines this morning extolling how Canadians debt-to-income has hit a record breaking 165%.
Canadian Housing & Mortgage Investment Corporations – Time To Worry?
“For the purposes of this report, highly indebted households are those whose debt-to-income ratios exceed 350% (or the pink and red segments in the previous image). These households held ~21% of all household debt from 2012-14. This is concerning because their financial positions tend to be relatively bad. The ensuing table demonstrates that highly indebted households:
Tend to have lower income and wealth,
Are younger,
Are less likely to have a bachelor’s degree and
Are more likely to live in BC, AB or ON.
These numbers are problematic because adverse economic events will reduce their ability to service their debts.”
http://www.valuewalk.com/2016/03/canadian-housing-no-bubble/?all=1
I know it’s been written about before in this forum but it is worth repeating…
#113 john on 03.11.16 at 3:29 am
” Most people do not understand how the wealth tax works.”
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And neither do you. The wealth tax is a tax on net worth. It usually kicks in at certain net worth levels. It is separate from income tax.
So, a portfolio of a million and a wealth tax of 0.5% owes $5000/a. No problem, as Garth’s promised returns of 7% produces $70,000/a – taxable as income after dividend tax credits and capital gains allowances of course.
#10 Danger Dan on 03.10.16 at 5:58 pm
The size of a watch face is inversely proportional to the trustworthiness of the individual wearing it.
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Now THAT is a brilliant piece of advice, and I agree with it wholeheartedly!
VREU, you want me to prove I am not a Realtor? You seriously need some help.
You think, I am a realtor because I have stated that real estate prices in Victoria are NOT falling.
Whether you like it or not, prices currently are up over last month / year. What they do next year, well who knows.
#64 understood by few on 03.10.16 at 8:34 pm…
I really hadn’t delved into the VREB stats for Oak Bay, so here goes:
SFH
July 2008 $926,025
July 2009 $867,980
July 2010 $869,810
July 2011 $862,345
July 2012 $779,944
July 2013 $975,631
July 2014 $772,700
July 2015 $829,600
Feb 2016 $881,500
So by the real estate boards own stats, prices have not even kept pace with inflation.
Of course, VREB switched to the HPI in 2014 and I don’t know how that compares to the actual sales figures.
At the very least you must agree the market is flat in Oak Bay, but IMHO it’s as bad as the area I used to own by the inner harbour.
I do agree entirely with the rest of your post.
#177 economictsunami on 03.11.16 at 4:37 pm
Interesting read on the heals of the headlines this morning extolling how Canadians debt-to-income has hit a record breaking 165%.
______________________________________
good read.
“This makes them more vulnerable to corrections and bear markets because asset values can fall while debts values remain the same.”
Who posted yesterday about the Kiyosaki seminars? That was a good read too. I have people close to me who attend those…
So this person came back and told me that the next seminar costs ~$2000 and teaches you how to go out and find the millionaires who will lend you the money so you can make millions too. Using other peoples money!!!!! I am not making this up.
I bet there are a few millionaires on this blog? Any takers? I promise my buddy is super smart and handy….
#82 come on on 03.10.16 at 9:39 pm…
I can assure you there are thousands of listings for homes as you describe in the Phoenix area, all for about 40-50% less than the equivalent in Canada.
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#96 HellandBack on 03.10.16 at 11:08 pm…
I’m scared enough when I bid at a regular auction or Barrett-Jackson, but while bidding up the price of a house is great for the sellers and agents, the buyers are totally insane!
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#141 Okanagan Man on 03.11.16 at 10:37 am…
I guess RE in Victoria is a great long-term investment, that would explain why the average SFH in Victoria core was $ 630,183 in February 2010!
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#156 Oak Bay Catastrophe on 03.11.16 at 1:55 pm…
I probably know who you are then, but you do realize that the key ability of a speechwriter is to excel at bafflegab?
Can we please ban the use of the word ‘denier’
If you dont know the meaning look it up.
The burden of proof lies with the person making the claim.
Any ‘denial’ legislation is the intellectual equivalent of kicking
over the chess board when you are losing the game.
“Interesting read on the heals of the headlines this morning extolling how Canadians debt-to-income has hit a record breaking 165%.”
Of course. Now if “Chinese” money were showing up in Canada, would the leverage ratio be so high? Of course not. Canadians would be able to pay off their debt with the proceeds of selling RE to the Chinese. Leverage would be falling, not rising, in a scenario with credible foreign inflows.
Leverage is rising because we have a lot of speculators, like that Vancouer Re/Max “Khalid” dude I like to quote a lot out of the Globe and Mail, who “own 15 to 20 houses, all destined for resale”. There must be hundreds, if not thousands of people just like him out there believing that they’re prudent and successful investors, sitting on landmines in their unbalanced portfolios. Its typical behaviour post-bubble peaks (Canada RE declining for 3 years now pretty much nationwide) to panic.
@#185 Me Again.
Liar liar pants on fire yer nuthin but a closet denier…..
@#156 Oak Bay catastrophe
“To clarify:
I am not a real estate agent. Never have been.
I am a retired speechwriter.
I have lived in Oak Bay since 1995 in the same house.
I’m not in the market, I like my house.
I also go out and walk around.
I talk to people in the community, too.
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Tony Robbins lives in Oak Bay?
Oh well, I guess its understandable since he stole his new wife from a guy in Surrey…. “Can take the gal outta the “hood” but cant take the “hood” outta the gal….”
#126 ES on 03.11.16 at 9:19 am
Ronaldo on 03.10.16 at 11:57 pm
#87 ES on 03.10.16 at 10:12 pm
”Any thoughts how high gold can go up? i think 1,350 max.”
In what currency are you speaking of? Canadian, Australian,?????
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USD. Thanks
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There are many predictions by many who believe that the price could go to $1500 by years end but that would likely mean that the USD would have to drop from where it is now. Currently in CAD, gold is at around 1650 which is only about 11% below its all time high of June 2011. Many people look only at what the price is doing in USD as gold is priced as such. In other currencies, a different story. One of the reasons people get burned investing in precious metals. They don’t understand this. Some funds are up near 35% this year but many were down over 75% or more. PM’s are a very volatile play and not for the inexperienced.
Oh should also mention my budget is well above average! So I’m buying in a much less competitive market. As an example four houses on my current list have been on the market since the 2013/14 time frame. All higher end of the market.
Christine Hughes, Canada, Chief Investment Strategist, OtterWood Capital:
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/02/21/canadas-white-hot-housing-market-gets-jingle-mail/
Hello guys,
Can anyone, please, explain me how a housing supply in days is calculated?
For example, the 206-day house supply of Ottawa vs 56-day supply of Vancouver.
I tried searching for it, but always got irrelevant results.
Number of sales in last calendar month, averaged by day, divided into total number of active listing at month’s end. — Garth
Poor Garth. Maybe politics wasn’t such a bad gig after all?
Actually, as someone who’s met Mr. Holmes a couple of times, this appearance actually is sadly, a sign of decline for him and his brand. He has no show currently on in the states. even in rerun. People got tired of watching him deal with nothing but one endless Canadian mouldy basement after another within an hours’ driving distance from their headquaters in Toronto.
He’s had no further entry into the major US market beyond a couple of contest shows few watch, and has aged out and been replaced by the younger hotter “Property Brothers”, an underwear model and failed Vegas magician (deadly serious) who, between them, have not a single real estate or contractors’ license. So much for the “reality” of “lifestyle” TV. Seems Holmes initial appeal was based more on his often shirtless younger partner Shawn Morren who left after several succesful seasons to be replaced by Damon Bennett, and later, Mike Holmes Jr., neither ever shirtless, losing him even more brownie points with the HGTV execs in Nashville.
And so it goes. TV is an even dirtier biz than politics. Hard to imagine, but true.