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Some days ago this cheeky blog (the facial kind) said don’t dump maple. Good call, as it’s turning out.

Sure, I know our country of Justinastan is somewhat pooched. When a $7.8 million house in the rich part of Van sells for a million over asking (with 11 offers) even as the economy descends, you know what lies ahead. It ain’t good. Where house lust, family borrowing and consumer finances come into play, there’s a lot of pain ahead.

But for others, a whole other tale. It’s quite simple. Even the dudes who wrote the Bible got it: “The rich rule over the poor, and the borrower is slave to the lender.” So, suck it up all you lefty Millennials who think mortgages aren’t debt, rates will never rise, and the rich are for eating. In the period which lies ahead, investors will rock. Debtors will roll.

So I told you weeks ago the commodity price rout was likely overdone. After all, the value of oil, nickel, copper, grain and other stuff we all need plunged to 1990s levels, completely illogical given the fact global growth is positive, not negative. Tanking prices for hard stuff were understandable in the dark days of 2009, but not now. Look at the world’s two biggest economies – the US is in recovery (more on that in a jiff) and China will grow by 6.5% this year. Sure, everybody’s got problems (at least the Chinese are largely spared Adele) but the light at the end of the tunnel’s no longer a train.

Since then, oil has popped and at $36 a barrel is almost 30% higher than a month ago. In other words, all those who shorted oil stocks or Canadian banks are being handed their derrieres. At the same time the Canadian dollar has advanced rapidly even against a strong American currency, and sits above 75 cents. Meanwhile the TSX has recovered lots of lost ground, which has been reflected in exchange-traded index funds like XIU – advancing 11% since Bandit’s new knee was installed.

In fact, did you know Bay Street now hosts one of the best-performing markets? It’s up almost 2% on the year, while Wall Street is negative by an equal amount. The advance this year has been dramatic, from deeply negative to bragging rights in ten weeks.

Now, what’s next?

Predictions are hard, so let’s stick with what we know. The American economy is doing exactly what was forecast here – swelling methodically, steadily and predictably. In the end, it will probably drag the entire world to a better place, which will includ higher interest rates.

We know this: Job creation surged in February. Employment numbers for the previous two months have just been restated, and they’re substantially higher. The American unemployment rate, steady at 4.9%, is now half what it was six years ago. By the way, this is an eight-year low. Last month the labour force expanded by half a million people. They all found jobs.

The US workforce is now growing at the fastest pace in more than a decade, and the share of the population holding down a job is at the highest level since 2009. The labour participation rate jumped last month, to a level not seen in a year. This rate has increased now for three months in a row – something which has not happened since 2006. In fact, it’s the largest such gain in 16 years.

The doomers will moan that many jobs are entry-level, don’t pay enough and wage gains have averaged just 2% annually. They want everyone to be a vice-president with a six-figure income and a defined benefit pension. But the reality is any job is better than no job, and with three million more Americans working than one year ago, no wonder car sales are torrid and US real estate has stabilized.

These are some of the reasons commodity prices are swinging back. Strong jobs market. Improved growth outlook. Better corporate earnings. The return of inflation. And, later this year, higher US rates.

So oil is going up, aided by the Saudi-Russia freeze deal, lower US production and speculation that when something the world really, really needs sheds 80% of its value, it was probably a stupid thing.

Naturally, turmoil could return and crude could crater again. Our dollar would fall and more truck nutz be retired in Edmonton. But reversals will probably be shallower and shorter, since there’s no valid indication the States is going down, the world will slip into deflation or the cost of money will stay where it is.

Those people astute enough to cash out of an asset at a speculative high, popped up by epic debt, and diversify into liquid securities with growth potential, shall inherit the earth. Literally. In time you won’t believe how much dirt is for sale.

210 comments ↓

#1 Squamish on 03.04.16 at 5:59 pm

Blog dogs, what do you think of this Squamish house:

It appears that it sold in Jan 2013 for $390k (although that doesn’t show up in BC Assessment – but maybe it’s just outside the window)
http://squamishhome.com/blog.html/i-have-sold-a-property-at-38074-westway-ave-in-squamish-2333809

It just got listed for $750k
https://www.locatehomes.ca/bc-real-estate-listings/squamish/mls-R2041800/38074-Westway-Avenue-Squamish-V0N3G0?id=262063427

That’s a 92% increase in three years.

No helper suite. Kind of a blah neighbourhood in a small town with very few local jobs about 60 km (one hour) north of Vancouver. Also note that new developments are still occurring in this town (there is still new land to be developed.)

My wife and I were very tempted and it’s well within our ability but this seems a little nutty.

How much further upside could there be at 750k?

#2 I Stand Corrected on 03.04.16 at 6:02 pm

Garth, you left the best part of that Point Grey story out. It’s a tear down for the nice family that bought it!

“Just before we listed [the house] two agents approached the sellers offering $7.6 million with deposit cheques in hand, so we thought we’d try for $7.8.”

Eleven offers were submitted on the property, which had been with the same owner for over 30 years.

“[It was] more like a teardown,” Park said.

“We had 10 offers from Chinese families,” Park said. “I believe they all had Vancouver home addresses. A good half didn’t speak English at all well.”

In the end, the house was purchased by a young Chinese couple with two children, who, Park says, had been looking for the perfect Point Grey plot for over a year.

“What’s unique about this property is the view is spectacular, you can see from downtown all the way to Horseshoe Bay.”

She said as far as she knows, the buyers plan to rent out the house for a year or two while they go through permit applications to build a new one.

In Vancouver “Chinese” does not mean “from China.” What a sad thing real estate done to civility and society. — Garth

#3 Goofy 2 Shoes on 03.04.16 at 6:02 pm

Sold for 1 million over asking price.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-real-estate-over-asking-bellevue-point-grey-1.3476617

#4 Kev on 03.04.16 at 6:04 pm

First!

Hey Garth! What is the best time to convert USD TO CAD? CAD seems to be keep falling.

#5 Bmac on 03.04.16 at 6:05 pm

Blastoff!

#6 Vancouver update on 03.04.16 at 6:06 pm

11 offers for that house. All on same day it was listed.

ALL CASH!!!

This is not locals for pete sake.

You don’t know that, nor is it even relevant unless you were a bidder. — Garth

#7 Frank on 03.04.16 at 6:11 pm

In Vancouver “Chinese” does not mean “from China.” What a sad thing real estate done to civility and society. — Garth

To be fair, having a Vancouver address doesn’t make you “From Canada”. Not enough context here, not that it matters. It’s a legal transaction, who cares.

What’s your beef with Adele? She’s got a great set of pipes.

#8 And what about a Fed rate increase? on 03.04.16 at 6:13 pm

You are awfully quiet about it. Does that mean you believe there will be no increase this month in the US, in spite of the good labour numbers? If so, why?

Market odds of a March rate increase are less than 10%. — Garth

#9 zedgt87 on 03.04.16 at 6:13 pm

And here garth gloats about a rally lol. Bear markets have the most violent bounces.

Often true. But this is no bear market. — Garth

#10 Mark on 03.04.16 at 6:14 pm

“since there’s no valid indication the States is going down, the world will slip into deflation or the cost of money will stay where it is.”

Let’s see. Falling wages. Full time jobs being replaced with part time jobs. A bond market that clearly is pointing towards deflation. Inventories of oil and gas that are on the verge of overflowing. Debt recoveries after default being dimes on the dollar, instead of the more typical recovery factors. A comatose job market for non-healthcare professionals. Not sure how any of this can be spun positive.

Oh yeah, I guess CPI hasn’t been coming in as bad as many believed. Guess why? Because foreigners are dumping their USD$, and such is representing incremental demand on the hollowed out US economy that otherwise would be experiencing falling prices on account of collapsing input prices and the strong USD$.

Some economies, like Canada, with falling RE prices, over-investment in export related sectors (in the case of Canada, the O&G sector), and significant exposure to countercyclical asset classes (ie: gold) will experience deflation. Some, particularly those which staked their economies heavily on finance will experience inflation. Just a natural part of rebalancing the global economy. Deflation isn’t exactly that bad of a thing — especially for those without debt. The 1930s deflation was one of the biggest transfers of wealth, at the time, in human history — from the over-leveraged, to the underleveraged. People who owned the gold miners, at one point, saw them rise in value 100X relative to the stock market and other assets and were able to pick up assets galore at distressed prices.

Give it up. There is no deflation in NA. Rates here will never go negative, and US wages are rising, not falling. — Garth

#11 MSM-Free Zone on 03.04.16 at 6:17 pm

Perhaps someday I’m going to abandon human nature and learn to buy during misery and sell during euphoria.

After all, I missed the last ride since 2008.

#12 mitzerboy aka queencity kid on 03.04.16 at 6:19 pm

never bet against the usa

#13 ILoveCharts on 03.04.16 at 6:19 pm

“In Vancouver “Chinese” does not mean “from China.” What a sad thing real estate done to civility and society. — Garth”

So what’s the deal Garth? Someone is born and raised in China, earns wealth in China and still has a family member in China earning wealth there and sending it to Canada. The moment that person is granted a PR card or a student visa, we can no longer say they are Chinese? Your HAM denial is getting a little silly.

Besides, most people aren’t actually talking about “Chinese people” they are talking about “Foreign money that is largely originating from China.” We love the people. We even love the money (money coming into a local economy is good.) We just have some concerns about what it does to the livability of the city.

I’m born and raised here. The province spent huge sums of money on me (health care, education, etc.) Now I will leave because of the housing prices. It’s bad policy.

I guess it’s all local money paying $9 million for tear downs? Of course not – foreign money is pouring in across the lower mainland. That is having two effects 1) Lots of locals now have new wealth that they can use to spend on houses and 2) The increased demand makes it a more competitive market and so local families are fully extending themselves on cheap mortgages.

Actually it is speculation, on the part of everyone, you should fear the most. The whole region is obsessed with one thing. — Garth

#14 Lead Paint on 03.04.16 at 6:24 pm

In Garth We Trust!

#15 gut check on 03.04.16 at 6:27 pm

OMFG I agree with much of what Mark just wrote.

time for me to reassess or … perhaps these things are just that much of a no-brainer?

#16 steerage steward on 03.04.16 at 6:27 pm

The lesson, as ever, is have a financial plan and stick to it while ignoring short term fluctuations in the markets.

I’m more pessimistic then Garth seems to be about near term market risk. Doesn’t mean it’s time to start messing with savings rates and allocations.

#17 crappy armchair economist on 03.04.16 at 6:30 pm

On the US jobs report:

Would you rather work part time in America or full time in China? Who has the better quality of life? Less work, more stuff vs more work, less stuff.

Gg

#18 espressobob on 03.04.16 at 6:33 pm

Buying into fear? Tastes bad and works everytime.

#19 Vancouver update on 03.04.16 at 6:33 pm

Those bashing Garth for rate forecasts are dumb. The goalposts change as the economy changes daily. As it stands, there will be rate increases. But mosts think economy slowing in USA, so then Garth will reassess the rate increases at that point.

#20 horseshoes on 03.04.16 at 6:35 pm

What a sad thing real estate done to civility and society. — Garth

Stating this from you the way you have treated bloggers to this post in very rude terms even banning them is like the pot calling the kettle black!

This is a moderated blog. Live with it, buttercup. — Garth

#21 bdy sktrn on 03.04.16 at 6:37 pm

#1 Squamish on 03.04.16 at 5:59 pm
Blog dogs, what do you think of this Squamish house:…
How much further upside could there be at 750k?
——————–
thats what we said about east van a few years ago.

if you work there sure.

good friends bought in brakendale few yrs back – biiiiig yard is very nice, was 550ish, decent house too.

there is ‘some’ new land available but it’s not exactly the praries, it’s very , very limited.

#22 OffshoreObserver on 03.04.16 at 6:38 pm

Verily, Verily…

http://www.investopedia.com/features/crashes/

#23 Retired Boomer WI on 03.04.16 at 6:39 pm

Another week in the books. Snowing lightly here this last afternoon. I thought after a Florida break nature might take the hint, silly me…

The markets appear to have had a decent week. Is this the beginning of a trend, or just a decent week? Nobody knows, but why not enjoy it anyways.

Saw the rather disturbing report on American savings (for retirement) from Business Insider (yesterday I believe).
Those age 56-61 “average savings” are $163,557. The mean however is A Mere $17,000 which means even assuming NO DEBT, without some other type of defined benefit plan, or wealth other than in a retirement account (always a possability) these soon to be geezers are on target for being impoverished geezers.

Whether it is housing, cars, or lifestyle if you are living solely on the government’s ‘promises’ I can promise you, you will not be happy. Lots of reasons for the low savings numbers I am sure, but the end result will be the same…it sucks!

#24 bdy sktrn on 03.04.16 at 6:40 pm

#2 I Stand Corrected on 03.04.16 at 6:02 pm.

“What’s unique about this property is the view is spectacular, you can see from downtown all the way to Horseshoe Bay.”

——————-
that realtor needs to get out more, without xray vision to see thru a mountain you ain’t seeing hsb from anywhere in the city

#25 sockeye sam on 03.04.16 at 6:44 pm

Re: the Point Grey house.
How about I jump in my car and go and ask them if they live in China?
Renting it out for one year should be a clue.
Not to many non mainlander non communist Chinese could afford to go a mil. over. More than likely another factory owner with a bundle of Chinese cash with wings.
I’d also like to ask the owners of the four vacant houses in my block where they’re living currently. But they haven’t been around since last summer.

#26 Nemesis on 03.04.16 at 6:44 pm

“In Vancouver “Chinese” does not mean “from China.” — HonGarth

#InWashington… #Saying”China”DoesNotMean… #You’reChinese

https://youtu.be/RDrfE9I8_hs

#27 tundra pete on 03.04.16 at 6:48 pm

West Broadway, Point Grey, University Endowment Lands, have all never been “middle class” properties. Butchers, Bakers and Candlestick Makers never could afford those properties and School Teachers, Nurses, Plumbers or Walmart Greeters never will afford them. They will have to move to some place they can afford.

Who the hell would ever want to compete against anyone for anything in the Lower Mainland. Wait till it all blows up soon then vultch. There certainly is a lot of good Maple deals out there right now. Scoop some of that up then head for a Mexican beach and let the Joneses attempt to keep up with each other.

#28 Barry Soetoro on 03.04.16 at 6:49 pm

“Those people astute enough to cash out of an asset at a speculative high, popped up by epic debt, and diversify into liquid securities with growth potential, shall inherit the earth. Literally. In time you won’t believe how much dirt is for sale.”
Bravo- Well said. Cash out of debt instruments like stock and bonds and buy physical Gold and Silver. Done pretty well so far this year- eh Garth! “Just the tip”

Owning the TSX through an ETF is enough precious metals exposure. — Garth

#29 Intuitive Missus on 03.04.16 at 6:49 pm

#4 – Kev

Best time to cash out some US$ for C$ was about 3 weeks ago :}

That’s what I did.

#30 Canadian on 03.04.16 at 6:53 pm

#9 zedgt87 on 03.04.16 at 6:13 pm

Often true. But this is no bear market. — Garth

No but it sure feels like a bull trap to me. I’ll be sitting this rally out.

#31 pathcontrolmonk on 03.04.16 at 6:58 pm

…This is not locals for pete sake.

You don’t know that, nor is it even relevant unless you were a bidder. — Garth

But we do know that, 66% of buyers on YVR’s Westside last year were from Mainland China.

http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2015/11/vancouver-westside-homes-sold-to-chinese-buyers-study/

#32 BobC on 03.04.16 at 6:58 pm

4.8 % unemployment and yet 1 in 7 Americans can’t feed themselves without taxpayer funded food stamps. Something doesn’t add up.

Just saying…

Learn more about food stamps. Just sayin.. — Garth

#33 MF on 03.04.16 at 7:04 pm

Meh wake me up when the losses in 2015 are reversed.

And why are fed rate hike odds at 10% if everything is all rosy AND the usd has fallen?

Do the central bankers have any credibility left? Markets a joke. Maybe Draghi can speak and provide more “stimulus” from that disaster Europe so we can lie to ourselves some more.

MF

#34 Steve on 03.04.16 at 7:11 pm

Long time reader here. Correct if I’m wrong, this is what I gather from your recent posts:
– don’t dump maple
– keep maple exposure small (global portfolio)
– maple is still a dangerous place

Oui?

Create a properly balanced and diversified portfolio and stick with it. You have no idea what’s coming. Unlike the geniuses who post here. — Garth

#35 acdel on 03.04.16 at 7:13 pm

Betting against Canada, never have, never will. We have it all, the speculators will get weeded out. We have what the world needs, brains, talent, resources, food (farming) fish,water, etc. Eventually we will elect someone who gets it! In the meantime, create!

#36 Cici on 03.04.16 at 7:18 pm

Garth, you forgot to mention that the Canadian government is liquidating what’s left of its gold reserves…

Not worthy of comment. — Garth

#37 Ray Skunk on 03.04.16 at 7:20 pm

What was the name of that woman who sold everything at the bottom again?

Oh dear.

#38 max on 03.04.16 at 7:20 pm

In the U.S. even if you have a job, you can still get food stamps. Most teachers in Washington State can qualify for food stamps. Hence why you have so many using them even when employment is high.

Now onto Canada and Vancouver real estate. There is smart money and dumb money, the later always looses! I can see wanting to be in the city, but people are paying crazy money to do it. Even worse a lot see this as an investment. I see it like Tulips!

Why pay Vancouver prices, when 30 minutes away you have this:

http://www.rew.ca/properties/R2040068/4018-213a-street-langley?property_search=368232740

or a lot more:

http://www.rew.ca/properties/search/368232740?property_search%5Binitial_search_method%5D=single_field&property_search%5Blist_price_from%5D=2000000&property_search%5Blist_price_to%5D=&property_search%5Bnum_bathrooms%5D=&property_search%5Bnum_bedrooms%5D=4&property_search%5Bonly_open_house%5D=0&property_search%5Bquery%5D=Langley

Some of these have been for sale for months, even a year or more. There is even a couple big house on acreage pocket listings! Why buy a crap house? Especially when way better is available. Same story in Victoria, in the city million dollar crap houses selling over list, when 20 minutes away, under $950k executive homes, even new build waterfront for under $2million. There is no logic in todays real estate market. Recipe for disaster in my opinion.

#39 Old stock Canadian on 03.04.16 at 7:28 pm

when mention 1 percent of rich people, it means 0.001 percent. 300 wealthy should pay the high taxes out of 30 Million Canadians. Please don’t bring the doctors into it. That is very much divisive politics playing between patients and Doctors.

Canadians turn to second-hand market as they cope with tepid economy
Canadians look to ‘MacGyver a better quality of life’ with what they’ve got, as Kijiji report finds roughly 85 per cent took part in a second-hand transaction last year.
http://www.thestar.com/business/2016/03/04/canadians-turn-to-second-hand-market-as-they-cope-with-tepid-economy.html

Superyacht builders ride wave of demand from super-rich

http://www.thestar.com/business/2016/03/04/superyacht-builders-ride-wave-of-demand-from-super-rich.html

#40 Caught In The Grip on 03.04.16 at 7:40 pm

Do you think the FED will hike more times than the BOC in 2016?

#41 tundra pete on 03.04.16 at 7:43 pm

#32 bobc

Dude its called SNAP

Nutrtion assistance. To assist Americans in eating better or trying to.
Instead of KFC and Dunkin Donuts.

#42 The American on 03.04.16 at 7:45 pm

At #32: BobC, Canada doesn’t even provide its citizens the benefit of a SNAP (foodstamp) program. The program has been widely expanded since Katrina to also include anyone who is impacted in a natural disaster, which accounts for 20% of that number. Additionally, SNAP provides benefits for elderly, college students, part-time employed who may not meet certain thresholds of income, persons with disabilities, areas where crop output is below normal, etc. It isn’t solely a bunch of poor folk sitting around in poverty who cannot feed themselves. In fact, this is the group who accesses it the least of those who do opt to enroll in the program. Common misconception. Being that 14% of the population participate, this is a remarkably LOW number, given the demographics for whom it is available. Educate yourself.

#43 Mark on 03.04.16 at 7:48 pm

“US wages are rising, not falling”

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t24.htm

Average weekly earnings fell from $720.62 in January to $718.48 in February. Sure looks like falling to me. Utility wages cratered by $40/week month over month.

Wages have increased 2% or more annually since 2010. One month of data is irrelevant. — Garth

#44 Yuus bin Haad on 03.04.16 at 7:49 pm

The Bible? Don’t forget “thou shalt not covet …”.

#45 mike in W van on 03.04.16 at 7:52 pm

“Garth, you forgot to mention that the Canadian government is liquidating what’s left of its gold reserves…

Not worthy of comment. — Garth”

I sold 3 of my properties close to UBC and with the proceeds bought all of it as a long term investment.

#46 sixtyfourk on 03.04.16 at 7:58 pm

Dead cat bounce?

#47 Squish on 03.04.16 at 7:59 pm

#1 Squamish…

https://www.propertyinsight.ca/38074-westway-avenue-squamish-bc-xvxhrckksy0e

Sold for $269 about ten years ago. Has virtually doubled (if it sells at the list price) in the last 3 years, and is now trading at 3/4 of a million. Currently assessed at about $410k.

There are thousands of residential units approved to move forward – according to council about 4000 already approved, with thousands more waiting for the go-ahead. The Nexen lands are starting to be developed now… that’s 6500 residential units planned to be built over the next 15+ years. They’re releasing SFD lots a dozen at a time above Quest. If they open up the Cheekeye fan lands that’s huge, same with GAS. Unprecedented development going on here.

Squamish is ridiculous. The people selling that house hit the small town jackpot; whoever buys it may well earn the greaterfool crown.

#48 Smoking Man on 03.04.16 at 7:59 pm

When never needing to worry about money. You’ve do it it all many times over. This song keeps playing in your head.

God I’m board.

I can’t get no satisfaction
I can’t get no satisfaction
’cause i try and i try and i try and i try
I can’t get no, i can’t get no

When i’m drivin’ in my car
And that man comes on the radio
He’s tellin’ me more and more
About some useless information
Supposed to fire my imagination
I can’t get no, oh no no no
Hey hey hey, that’s what i say

I can’t get no satisfaction
I can’t get no satisfaction
’cause i try and i try and i try and i try
I can’t get no, i can’t get no

When i’m watchin’ my tv
And that man comes on to tell me
How white my shirts can be
But he can’t be a man ’cause he doesn’t smoke
The same cigarrettes as me
I can’t get no, oh no no no
Hey hey hey, that’s what i say

I can’t get no satisfaction
I can’t get no girl reaction
’cause i try and i try and i try and i try
I can’t get no, i can’t get no

When i’m ridin’ round the world
And i’m doin’ this and i’m signing that
And i’m tryin’ to make some girl
Who tells me baby better come back later next week
’cause you see i’m on losing streak
I can’t get no, oh no no no
Hey hey hey, that’s what i say

I can’t get no, i can’t get no
I can’t get no satisfaction
No satisfaction, no satisfaction, no satisfaction

#49 White Rock Jerry on 03.04.16 at 8:00 pm

#27 tundra pete
“West Broadway, Point Grey, … have all never been “middle class” properties. Butchers, Bakers … never could afford those properties and School Teachers, Nurses, Plumbers … never will afford them.”

Very wrong. In the 1960s and 1970s schoolteachers, etc. were easily able to buy houses on the west side of Vancouver. When I lived in the Dunbar and Point Grey neighbourhoods as a teenager during those years, we were literally surrounded by teachers. My parents bought a nice house west of Dunbar in 1965; they both worked as CLEANERS. In 1973 they bought a bigger house on a bigger lot in West Point Grey. And no, they hadn’t ever inherited any money or won the lottery.

Dude. Half a century ago. Get over it. — Garth

#50 max on 03.04.16 at 8:01 pm

Or go 40 minutes out and you could have this for the same money:

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/16243848/30709-NORTH-BURGESS-AVENUE-Abbotsford-British-Columbia-V4X2A6

You’d be living just like a rock star in that one. As its the former home of Chad Kroeger of Nickelback fame. Been on the market since 2014.

#51 For those about to flop... on 03.04.16 at 8:02 pm

So I drove by the 1.5 million beater on the way to work and to my surprise instead of seeing a big sold sticker,they had actually taken down the realtor sign.

The white stake remained which I interpreted as the house had been taken off the market to be put back on at a later stage.

It was only for sale for one week ,which seems abit strange.Maybe they are going to hold out for two million…

#52 jay on 03.04.16 at 8:06 pm

Yeah, I guess that’s why Trump is going to be elected POTUS because thing’s are so good in the U.S.

#53 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.04.16 at 8:07 pm

@#20 horseshoes and handgrenades
“Stating this from you the way you have treated bloggers to this post in very rude terms even banning them is like the pot calling the kettle black!”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

bwahahahahaha . Would you like some cheese with that whine?
Seriously.
Last time I checked it was HIS blog not yours……..
Dont like it?
Start your own politically correct boring blog and be prepared to listen to ……..crickets.

#54 For those about to flop... on 03.04.16 at 8:09 pm

#183 CJBob on 03.04.16 at 3:01 pm
For those who disagree with Mark.

“Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and then beat you with experience.” – Mark Twain

///////////////////////////////////////

I have a saying that is a bit similar.

Never argue with a fool in public as people might not notice the difference…

M41BC

#55 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.04.16 at 8:10 pm

@#47 Smoking Man

Hitting the JD a little early tonight are we Smokey?

#56 common sense on 03.04.16 at 8:12 pm

#44 Mike in W Van

You must be a troll…ALL of it in Gold?

Please.

#57 Smoking Man on 03.04.16 at 8:13 pm

#43 Mark on 03.04.16 at 7:48 pm
“US wages are rising, not falling”

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t24.htm

Average weekly earnings fell from $720.62 in January to $718.48 in February. Sure looks like falling to me. Utility wages cratered by $40/week month over month.

Wages have increased 2% or more annually since 2010. One month of data is irrelevant. — Garth
……

If your a bad ass code smith and consulting for a US corp. It’s pays double and in usd what you can fetch on Bay Street.

What the hell talking about mark.

Oh by the way dogs next week I will be releasing my multi twitter news scanner. Must have for anyone trading the news. Or consumed with us politics.

Free for blog dogs only. Email me. And I’ll send you a free copy. Just don’t share it with anyone.

#58 common sense on 03.04.16 at 8:17 pm

#52 Jay

Just starting to think after last night’s debacle, have we hit “Peak Trump” or is this thing just getting started?

For what it’s worth, still think US market is in bubble range til after or close to election… then hand off mess like most every other election.

#59 Ronaldo on 03.04.16 at 8:17 pm

#36 Cici on 03.04.16 at 7:18 pm

”Garth, you forgot to mention that the Canadian government is liquidating what’s left of its gold reserves…

Not worthy of comment. — Garth”

Exactly, totally insignificant. 3.4 tonnes, lol. Value of this would not be quite enough to buy two 757’s like the one Donald Trump owns for his personal use. The media likes to play this up like it was some sort of big deal.

#60 espressobob on 03.04.16 at 8:30 pm

Dead cat bounce? Diversified global investors ignore all the noise. We stay invested.

Cheaper prices in the broad based indices provide buying opportuniies for a few of us contrarians.

Investing short term or worse, speculating in individual
stocks are a crap shoot at best. How much risk are you willing to take? Is a short term home run really going to outperform ones long term time horizon?

The art of rebalancing actually presents more upside long term than gambling.

#61 heartsutra on 03.04.16 at 8:33 pm

life is so short and we actually own nothing from this world. All you can get from this short life are to find peacefulness and joyfulness that inside us. Outside are illusions and so temporal.

#62 Smoking Man on 03.04.16 at 8:41 pm

#55 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.04.16 at 8:10 pm
@#47 Smoking Man

Hitting the JD a little early tonight are we Smokey?
….

Self-discipline is not one of my stronger charcteristics.
Suffering from rural America syndrome. Lost in a casino in the Allegany mountains. Band on stage butchering stones tunes.

Wife desparatly trying to win back 3gs she blew last night. And if she says it was 3 . More like 10.

She’s still cute after all these years.

I really should man up and say “Bitch enough is enough.”

But then when I’m here I don’t need to sneak drinks like I do in my back yard at home.

I just flush JD down like it’s water and I’ve run a marathon in Navada in July. Smoke double.

God’s a bastard. No boardom tolerance , no disaplin, bad habits and shit spelling.

But I’m pretty happy at the moment all the same.

#63 Bdwy sktn on 03.04.16 at 8:41 pm

Big, and I mean big, house fire here. 1st Ave closed. Dozens of trucks. Choppers. Gridlock.

It spread fast.. Too fast. When it was just one hose the guys were losing bad. By the time 7 or 8 lines got going it became a fair fight. Wasn’t much lleft by then. Think it was empty , awating, ahem, renos.

Can hardly blame a guy with all the city cost and bull crap to remove ones house these days.

#64 Ok on 03.04.16 at 8:42 pm

Ok, a young Chinese looking couple, with a Chinese looking kid bought a house barely speaking English, can you guess? Are they Canadian or are they Chinese?
I know that one is too difficult for you Garth!

Some days I hate this blog for forcing me to rub shoulders with trashy people like you. Go away. — Garth

#65 JP on 03.04.16 at 8:42 pm

2 maybe 3 US fed rate hikes coming this year, watch and see.

#66 mike in W van on 03.04.16 at 8:42 pm

@COMMON SENSE..

“#44 Mike in W Van

You must be a troll…ALL of it in Gold?

Please.”

Just following Garth’s investment philosophy..Sell high, ie RE and buy low ie gold…You have a problem with that?? It’s abt 40% of my net worth….How do you think I got rich? Buying term deposits??

#67 Gerry on 03.04.16 at 8:47 pm

More evidence of a risking market–even in the smaller centers
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/millionaire-boomers-decamp-vancouver-pocketing-housing-windfalls-as-city-becomes-a-commodity

Garth, when would you advise buying on Vancouver Island? Should we wait another three years until it becomes more unaffordable?

#68 horseshoes on 03.04.16 at 8:50 pm

This is a moderated blog. Live with it, buttercup. — Garth

Sure thing sweety-pie. Whatever the moderator decrees!

Hail Caesar…….or Trump whatever.

Free journalism ?…… if you can stop from getting deleted.

Like that was worth typing. — Garth

#69 poundingsand in Peachland on 03.04.16 at 8:52 pm

I love the rock and roll

#70 sockeye sam on 03.04.16 at 8:58 pm

RE:#27 White Rock Jerry.
I still live and own in Dunbar on Vancouver’s west side.I have since 1990. I’m a transit operator and my wife is a teacher’s aid.We bought for $225,000.00 and stayed put. Most of the people on my street with the exception of the absent owners were here when we moved here. We have a teacher next door a plumber across the street another retired teacher a carpenter a retired mail man a mechanic a dog trainer. We stayed and didn’t sell. We all have the same size lots(33x 120). We are trying to keep a community of non vacant houses and speculators.

#71 I love real estate on 03.04.16 at 8:59 pm

In a very real way, the biggest “slaves” are those who are lackeys to doomers, the real estate naysayers predicting a crash that will never happen. Hilliard MacBeth and his ilk are simply wrong, year after year after year after, now, decade.

On the other hand, here’s another wise voice from Toronto today, usually left-leaning business commentator Armine Yalnizyan talking on CBC:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/programs/metromorning/hot-housing-market-1.3475893

As Armine says about Toronto real estate prices, “the sky’s the limit!”

Agreed. She is correct. The forces driving up real estate in Toronto as well as Vancouver are pretty well unstoppable.

“What makes the Vancouver housing market different?”

http://startouch.thestar.com/screens/2260f80e-1a1d-476a-9599-d0ca4e1f3964%7CShc0~8eRfyq_.html

The horribly sad thing about this growing cult of doomerism is how so many thousands, perhaps millions of mostly younger people are waiting and waiting and waiting for a crash that never comes, and being left out of the most secure financial opportunity of their lifetimes, home ownership.

Doomers are causing so much harm, so much pain to more and more people every week.

There will be much to apologize for, doomers, in the decades ahead, as your own children and grandchildren are left out of the best opportunity for building wealth they passed by because of your cult of negativity.

Always mice to hear from Re/Max. — Garth

#72 JSS on 03.04.16 at 9:05 pm

Hey guys, check out JT’s new hairdo!

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/politics/justin-trudeau-honoured-on-tsuutina-first-nation-as-the-one-that-keeps-trying/ar-BBqmdMV?li=AAggNb9&ocid=mailsignoutmd

#73 Ok on 03.04.16 at 9:06 pm

Sorry Garth but discrediting with insults doesn’t make your argument better. People insult when they are wrong.
If you don’t want to see, then you are not going to see, Vancouver is turning into a Chinese province and I don’t like it because I don’t like communism, am I trashy for that? Don’t think so!

#74 sanddancer on 03.04.16 at 9:07 pm

Unless your actually going to do some research into how/ why the lower mainland has gone completely nuts then stop dismissing the idea that foreign $$ could be responsible for a lot of what is happening here…..people who live and work here are trying to tell you what is happening !!
People I trust are saying that 80%+ of deals done on the west side of vancouver are foreign $$ deals…..that a lot more than 5% !!!
Vancouver is changing drastically and foreign $$ are largely responsible. …fact! !

More importantly, so what? None of you whiners will change market forces, so be smart about the situation. — Garth

#75 broader mind on 03.04.16 at 9:07 pm

Tonight’s post – Amen !

#76 horseshoes on 03.04.16 at 9:08 pm

#53 crowdedelevatorfartz
bwahahahahaha .
Would you like some cheese with that whine?
Seriously.
Last time I checked it was HIS blog not yours……..
Dont like it?
Start your own politically correct boring blog and be prepared to listen to ……..crickets.
——————————————————————–

I watch CNN, Fox News and MSNBC for the best show on earth featuring great political minds vying to convince the American public they have the answers as I spend the winter in Florida.

During the commercial breaks I read the greatest comical entertainment on Canadian internet featuring comparable participants such as crowdedelevatorfartz.

Thanks!

#77 Smoking Man on 03.04.16 at 9:08 pm

Trumps assent incredible to 99% of you.

I can tell you his every next move, I wrote the manual for christ sakes.

But I won’t , too many pink shirt fairy liberals in this room.

They will give Hillary the edge , oh Hillary I know you would love to hire the grand master of Herdonomics but I’m on contract till the end of November.

And you don’t have enough loot to turn me into a whore.

#78 espressobob on 03.04.16 at 9:09 pm

Gold as an investment? It,s a commodity, like any other. The gold standard was rescinded way back in 1971. Think about it.

It,s easy to reel in DIY mentality and capture ignorance on this matter. By the way there are far more precious elements on the periodic table.

Experianced traders own the miners. Proven to be a brutal bet as of late. Ouch.

So why fixate on shiny metals?

Diversified investors own other sectors like financials, materials, telecoms, pharms. energy, etc etc.

We own them all. That,s what index investors do best. We kick the crap out of professional mutual fund managers just by owning their benchmark.

Ignore the hype.

#79 Kreditanstalt on 03.04.16 at 9:12 pm

“Not entry level”?

True. But when the only work available is waitressing, shelf-stocking, Walmart greeting, part-time delivery or bartending there’s only ONE level and you’re in it.

#80 Joe on 03.04.16 at 9:15 pm

DELETED

#81 common sense on 03.04.16 at 9:24 pm

#70 Real Estate man

It’s not if but when…always…

This funny thing called ummm Gravity.

#82 For those about to flop... on 03.04.16 at 9:25 pm

DELETED (vulgarity)

#83 joblo on 03.04.16 at 9:28 pm

Hey Learning from you:

“Please could somebody provide a reliable source for comparison of living cost among all the Canadian cities?”

Google Numbeo Canada
Cheers!

#84 family beagle on 03.04.16 at 9:29 pm

#22 OffshoreObserver on 03.04.16 at 6:38 pm
Verily, Verily…
http://www.investopedia.com/features/crashes/

….

The Florida crash rings a bell. Popular destination for people who don’t like cold, growth, prices up exponentially, double and triple valuations, speculators… then pfft. No price support = no buyers. Twenty years from now the joke might be, “I have some BC bog land I could sell you.” Or not.
http://www.investopedia.com/features/crashes/crashes4.asp

#85 wow on 03.04.16 at 9:34 pm

Jesus christ i don’t believe it, a very positive post from the garth man

#86 For those about to flop... on 03.04.16 at 9:39 pm

#81 For those about to flop… on 03.04.16 at 9:25 pm
DELETED (vulgarity)

///////////////////////////

Good to see one of us has standards…
Have you heard of that saying before?

M41BC

#87 barnz0rz on 03.04.16 at 9:45 pm

@#1 – Squamish

Squamish is Vancouver Westside for the lower middle class who want to commute but don’t want to pay the toll to cross the Port Mann everyday. It’s where people buy when they love outdoor activities and don’t want to move to Langley.
Squamish is the bubble where the lower middle class is going to get creamed when it goes.
The highway traffic that way is getting brutal. Summer is going to be ridiculous.

#88 Smoking Man on 03.04.16 at 9:48 pm

Meanwhile back on Nectonite sky pilots are though of as low class . Dirt a under a deformed toe nail.

That’s why I love Earth so much. The janitor gets stuck with that distinction.

Sky pilots get a bit more respect here.

https://youtu.be/BP0IXOr9O8U

#89 Smoking Man on 03.04.16 at 10:11 pm

The band on stage. Americans? beautiful people. The day they picked up an insterment they were shoting for stardom like em all.

The fact that they are stuck playing gigs in shit Salimenca. Well they fk up somewhere on that journey.

Now if the goal starting out was to be a rock star. They lose.

But if they just did it for the art. Major winners.

Can’t stress that enough. Happy Ness is doing what you love. If your lucky you make a bit of loot. But that’s not why you do it.

#90 Smoking Man on 03.04.16 at 10:18 pm

The band at the casino

Dyslexicsmokingman.blogspot.CA

If the link don’t work click my name it’s in phone memory writen sobar.

#91 DON on 03.04.16 at 10:22 pm

Oh by the way dogs next week I will be releasing my multi twitter news scanner. Must have for anyone trading the news. Or consumed with us politics.

Free for blog dogs only. Email me. And I’ll send you a free copy. Just don’t share it with anyone.

*************

I’d like to see that – email address on your blog.

and

Trump should have an ad of him running through the streets like Rocky…may just work…the underdog. America loves the underdog. He is speaking unfettered and people can tell. Nutty but eh! Shift happens in stages – I’m still waiting for the other shoe to drop. Even the mention of the KKK isn’t working as planned. What next!?

#92 DON on 03.04.16 at 10:26 pm

#33 MF on 03.04.16 at 7:04 pm

And why are fed rate hike odds at 10% if everything is all rosy AND the usd has fallen?

**************************

I wouldn’t mind knowing as well…over to you Mark?

Just kidding…Garth

How’s Bandit progressing?

#93 Bonhomme Carnaval on 03.04.16 at 10:28 pm

@ #70 I love real estate on 03.04.16 at 8:59 pm

Wow! Can you pour me a glass of that Kool-Aid you’re drinking buddy?

#94 For those about to flop... on 03.04.16 at 10:30 pm

#33 MF on 03.04.16 at 7:04 pm
Meh wake me up when the losses in 2015 are reversed.

And why are fed rate hike odds at 10% if everything is all rosy AND the usd has fallen?

Do the central bankers have any credibility left? Markets a joke. Maybe Draghi can speak and provide more “stimulus” from that disaster Europe so we can lie to ourselves some more.

MF

//////////////////////////

Hey MF ,when I was young and dumb( last year) I was unsure what to do with the last $1500 in my TFSA.

The first $35k I did the vanilla thing but I thought I’d diversify abit and put it info an India Fund.
The result….down 30% for the year but because it was as all amount of money I held my nerve and stayed in the game.

This week alone it went up 9.6% ,and so I am still down but it helps that the vanilla stuff is doing alright and I get comfortable with my risk tolerance at the same time.

Keep feeding your account when you can,and when the market takes off again you will be rewarded for your patience.

You didn’t write much this week,I hope all else is o.k

Peace brother.

M41BC

#95 Tony on 03.04.16 at 10:31 pm

Re: #65 JP on 03.04.16 at 8:42 pm

The consensus is nearly 100 percent NIRP by 2017 at the latest in America.

There is no such consensus, nor will there be negative rates. — Garth

#96 Smoking Man on 03.04.16 at 10:31 pm

Holly shit, might have another god sighting tonight. How the hell can I still type with no errors when I’m not sure I can walk.

I’ve made it to writerdom.

Take that you scum bag stamp collectors.

#97 Dups on 03.04.16 at 10:34 pm

Garth is right about the markets becoming healthier every week, but one thing: How about BOC rate cut comming this month. Wouldn’t that send our loonie down 5cent or so vs. the greenback?

No cut before the budget. — Garth

#98 Tiger1960 on 03.04.16 at 10:50 pm

Hey all you losers out there , chinease are kicking your ass ! What your doing wrong is your lack of work ethic!
You want all for free , losers all of you!
Cry baby cry! Your gen is smoke weed, losers all of you ,you vote for the weed and your dum as f.
Zombie nation is here !
That’s why only 1% of people on this earth will succeed and and thrive!

#99 piccaso on 03.04.16 at 10:52 pm

From Alberta and looking for work… the wages in Vancouver are shit

#100 Rabbit One on 03.04.16 at 10:54 pm

#69 sockeye sam

I heard Dunbar used to be blue color owners, hard worker ones.
As you say, most lots are same sized.

Pretty much same in Kits.
Kits used to be centre of the multi unit detached, although they almost extinct quite rapidly.
You don’t see luxury built old houses there.
You can compare the old houses in PG, Mackenzie Height, or of course Shaughnessy, their structures and size are for upper middle and up.

Now, we cannot tell much in Dunbar, because so many tear downs and new builds, even many combined lots happening in Dunbar area.

It is funny, developers require to preserve 10 years old tree in the property (pretty orange cages), but can demolish 80 years old liveable house.

As for Squamish, I heard pending development for ski resort like Whistler, but closer to town.

#101 Ban real estate agents on 03.04.16 at 10:56 pm

Garth is their any way of banning realtors from your blog !! I do believe in free speech but their contribution to your excellent blog really brings down whether I won’t to continue following this blog with their realtors bullshit propaganda.
I get so bloody incensed with realtors and how they represent them selves on your blog its driving me nuts. Anyway just wanted to vent on a Friday night.

I do appreciate your honest and forthright opinions.

#102 Kilt on 03.04.16 at 11:03 pm

Yes they forgot to mention that the people making the offers were “Chinese” Canadians. Or maybe they just didn’t know, or they couldn’t ask them because “A good half didn’t speak English at all well.”
Next thing you know we will be imposing a Chinese Head Tax on everyone from Richmond.

Kilt.

Change ‘Chinese’ to ‘black’ or ‘Jew’ and see how it sounds. Chinese people are from China. You may be shocked to learn these are Mandarin-speaking citizens of Asian heritage from the burbs of Van. — Garth

#103 BS on 03.04.16 at 11:05 pm

White Rock Jerry on 03.04.16 at 8:00 pm
#27 tundra pete
“West Broadway, Point Grey, … have all never been “middle class” properties. Butchers, Bakers … never could afford those properties and School Teachers, Nurses, Plumbers … never will afford them.”

Very wrong. In the 1960s and 1970s schoolteachers, etc. were easily able to buy houses on the west side of Vancouver. When I lived in the Dunbar and Point Grey neighbourhoods as a teenager during those years, we were literally surrounded by teachers. My parents bought a nice house west of Dunbar in 1965; they both worked as CLEANERS. In 1973 they bought a bigger house on a bigger lot in West Point Grey. And no, they hadn’t ever inherited any money or won the lottery.

The people you are referring to as teachers were one half of a dual income couple. Back in the 60s and 70s the vast majority of families were single income. Being dual income put you in the 1% of family income, where you could afford a Westside house. Since most families now are dual income you are comparing apples to oranges.

People were moving to the Fraser Valley for a reason in the 60s and 70s too. It was not because they liked the commute.

#104 chillywilly on 03.04.16 at 11:13 pm

thanks a lot Garth for this blog… your insights are very helpful.

#105 Amanda Fawcell on 03.04.16 at 11:15 pm

Garth, your analysis would be correct in an ideal world. But the problem is that we live in a democracy where the majority of the voters are now chronic debtors. The government itself is heavily in debt. The monetary policy is geared towards causing massive inflation so that the debts can be paid off easily. It’s foolish not to take debt at these low interest rates. The interest rates will not increase by more than 0.5% over the next 2-3 decades. My advice is: Don’t bet against the majority and the government. Incur debt like they are doing, and live lavishly. Go with the flow. Savers = Losers.

Of course rates will rise. Capitalist governments do not set them. — Garth

#106 Rabbit One on 03.04.16 at 11:33 pm

#102
Change ‘Chinese’ to ‘black’ or ‘Jew’ and see how it sounds. Chinese people are from China. You may be shocked to learn these are Mandarin-speaking citizens of Asian heritage from the burbs of Van. — Garth

Garth,
Why in this case, reference is black / jew?

How about “Italian” or “American” sounds different, too.

Besides, jew is not a race or color of the skin.

Calling new Canadians / or born Canadian with Chinese background Chinese bad, why?

#107 Hopeful but realistic on 03.05.16 at 12:08 am

#76 horseshoes
During the commercial breaks I read the greatest comical entertainment on Canadian internet featuring comparable participants such as crowdedelevatorfartz.

Thanks
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Great response. This crowdedelevatorfartz character is a continuing windbag on this blog and needs more wraps on the knuckle to awaken any sense of maturity hopefully he/she may be able to exhibit.

#108 Smoking Man on 03.05.16 at 12:09 am

DELETED

#109 White Rock Jerry on 03.05.16 at 12:14 am

#103 BS

“The people you are referring to as teachers were one half of a dual income couple.”

No, the people I was referring to were in most cases single-earner households. I know because most of my classmates who lived in the neighbourhood had mothers who were full-time homemakers. The fathers were teachers, blue collar workers, junior managers, engineers, firefighters, etc. In other words, middle class or even working class. And even as recently as 1990, a transit operator and a teacher’s aide were able to buy a west side house, as #70 sockeye sam, who lives next door to a retired mailman, explained above.

#110 Rexx Rock on 03.05.16 at 12:34 am

We need a government like New Zealand where rich Chinese or Japanese can’t come into the country and buy everything to distort price and impoverish its own people from owning a home.Where is the logic to devalue your currency,emergency zirp forever and 40 year mortgages.Pretty destructive policies if you ask me?

#111 MF on 03.05.16 at 12:34 am

#94 For those about to flop… on 03.04.16 at 10:30 pm

Thanks for the nice message.

Things are actually really good on my end. I’ve been busy at work after we had a few people leave in the last month (I work in health care). Now I finally have hours that are more reliable and even some overtime, which I never refuse. All that equates to less daily moaning about my portfolio and arguing with conspiracy theorists in the steerage section here though :)

The vanilla approach you mention is the only thing that honestly seems to work. That and holding your nose and buying when everyone else is selling, which apparently I suck at! I still have not contributed my TFSA amount for this year, or invested anything since re-balancing in early December out of this “fear” I’ve developed. Basically the paralyzing fear Garth mentions that people experience during downturns. That is the only way to describe it. I’ll even have my computer open and ready to go with the “submit order” button in front of me and I hit cancel. I’ve got cash accumulating that needs to be put to use, but I just can’t do it.

Too many rookie investor problems.

Hope everything is okay on your end as well,

MF

#112 MF on 03.05.16 at 12:50 am

#92 DON on 03.04.16 at 10:26 pm

Exactly. I’ve said this a few times but, to be honest, I think that central bankers have lost a lot of credibility and increasingly look like they are basically winging it and are clueless.

Negative rates = failure of “policy”.

Even talk of negative rates is failure of “policy”. So why even mention a failed policy? What a joke.

Here’s a billion dollar idea: Why don’t we raise rates? Send a message that the economy is healthy, get people spending, and give them interest money from their investments to spend on junk made in Bangladesh. That will also “slowly” deflate the dangerous asset bubbles that the other failed policy that ZIRP has created.

Is that so hard to understand? Do I need to go to Princeton or Harvard economics to figure that out? Nope.

It’s so hilarious/sad/pathetic that in order for the FED to raise a quarter point everything in the entire world has to be going absolutely perfect 1000% for months on end before the decision (Chinese market, our market, us market, Europe, jobs reports, pay rolls, currency, mid east wars, Greece, Ukraine, Ebola/Zika blah blah blah)

With the economy so good, why are we still hesitant to raise and basically zerobound?

MF

#113 Snatch McItch on 03.05.16 at 12:59 am

“The American unemployment rate, steady at 4.9%, is now half what it was six years ago. By the way, this is an eight-year low. Last month the labour force expanded by half a million people. They all found jobs.”

Somewhat disagree, Obama extended EI for four years and now all those people have got the boot from the dole, so they no longer show up as unemployed, ergo the ‘unemployment numbers have shed millions who were once getting welfare and free phones and are now on another government program, or in prison.

I agree with Trump, the unemployment rate in reality is probably more than 40% and ‘the recovery’ is all a kabuki theater orchestrated for the election and Obama’s smooth Spielbergesque exit from the White House so that he makes ‘the first black president ‘ thing look like it was a good thing rather than the abysmal failure that he really was.

#114 jenn on 03.05.16 at 1:11 am

Thanks for your posts, Garth. One could go crazy living in Vancouver without you to counter all of the fear and real-estate obsession we hear about every day. I come here often just to reassure myself that we are making the right financial decisions.

#115 Sydneysider on 03.05.16 at 1:22 am

G’day peeps.

After 14 years away, I have finally returned to Canada (Burnaby). Rental houses here are much cheaper then Sydney, and better quality.

I asked the housing agent what is going on in the market. He mentioned that some people buy houses here with loans secured against foreign assets. When the owner defaults on the loan, the foreign assets are seized, while the owner gets to keep the house. That seems to be a reasonable explanation for some of the crazy Vancouver house prices in the last week.

#116 conan on 03.05.16 at 1:30 am

Hearing that the Saudi’s have decided to supply the Syrian “Rebels” with state of the art ground to air missiles. This is will put more pressure on oil and we could get a nice bump in price over the next few weeks. World War 3 might happen but WTF right?

#117 data on 03.05.16 at 1:37 am

LOL….

Today we have media talking about Canadian geezers selling out of homes. One example is a family in Vancouver

Bought: 30,000$ 1970
Sold 3,000,000$ 2016

That would mean for this growth rate to continue (10.5%) which is outstanding by any measure from “shelter”

For the buyer of that home today in 2016 to have the same profile, would mean that in 46 years, that house in Vancouver will be, wait for it….

300,000,000 MILLION DOLLARS in 2062! in an environment that is basically zero rates for 30 year bonds! Here we the classic law of small numbers (the buyers price) and the law of large numbers (going nuts with valuations)

We continue to hear stories everyday of homes being flipped 3-4X on craigslist before even closing of the first sale…..so the question is – WHO IS THE GREATERFOOL at the end of this chain? Can someone on these blog sites find one and bring back the story? I understand points to human lust, but it would great to hear some real stories of people pay these nut prices…

#118 Gonkman on 03.05.16 at 1:49 am

@ #105 Amanda Fawcell on 03.04.16 at 11:15 pm

The interest rates will not increase by more than 0.5% over the next 2-3 decades. My advice is: Don’t bet against the majority and the government. Incur debt like they are doing, and live lavishly. Go with the flow. Savers = Losers.
————————————-

Did I just got called a Loser for saving my money?

I own my Home.. I am debt free and building my Stash.

I Guess I am a loser?

We will see how it works out when I retired and Living with a Pile Liquid assets in an Paid off home and paying minimal taxes in a few years.

You let me know how your Huge mortgage/loans and devalued “Asset” is working out for you at increased rates.

I plan on giving this new retarded government as little as my Tax Dollars as possible when I retire in a few years. I am planning down the road as much as possible to pay as little as possible in taxes.

You can pay my share… and bitch about it too.. lol

Don’t forget all that interest you will be paying your bank will pop up my dividends nicely.

But hey… only losers save…

#119 Mark on 03.05.16 at 2:48 am

“I get so bloody incensed with realtors and how they represent them selves on your blog its driving me nuts. Anyway just wanted to vent on a Friday night. “

What good would an echo chamber be? I don’t know about the rest, but I come here because there is a diversity of views which can be aired. Okay, some border on the bizarre. Some are torn straight from the RE sell side’s typical propaganda playbook. But Garth has been remarkably tolerant of the diversity of opinions, charlatans, and just outright trolls that come here. (although it would be nice if one troll in particular would tone down the abusive behaviour and seek mental help!)

The fact that there isn’t a really good buy-side “forum” for Canadian residential RE almost tells you something. That the sell side has utterly dominated the agenda and discussion. At 70%+ ownership rates, there really aren’t many RE bears even left in Canada. Unadulterated sell-side BS, such as the claims of rapidly rising prices “nationwide” thus gets morphed, almost unchallenged, into headline news. Garth et al are right — people have gone absolutely bonkers.

“It’s foolish not to take debt at these low interest rates. The interest rates will not increase by more than 0.5% over the next 2-3 decades.”

If interest rates stay that low for the next few decades (which they may very well may), look out for significant long-term asset deflation. And remember that the long-term return on investment in a leveraged asset is the *spread* between the asset’s return, and the cost of financing it.

How about BOC rate cut comming this month. Wouldn’t that send our loonie down 5cent or so vs. the greenback?

Although the CAD$/USD$ pair has had an impressive (and entirely predictable) run over the past few weeks, it probably still needs to go into the mid 1.2-1.3 range for the BoC to pull the trigger. A very weak or even negative CPI number likely would also be required. Don’t think we’re quite there yet.

#120 NoName on 03.05.16 at 4:55 am

time flys…

Exactly 18yrs ago, i arrived to Canada, i was was cold and damp march day (by my standards back then) with heavy overcast.
Friend of mine that i knew from high school picked me up, and as he drove i watched around, and for some stupid reason only things that i steel vividly remember, was wet and gray looking concret and ugly square looking brown and burgundy k-cars.
Now 18yrs later i can say that we a canadians live most boring life in world, or it’s just me who does that. As my friend sad yesterday, “to busi working for living, not enough time left to live…”
Anyone who is a working stiff as i am know what i am talking abut.
Only thing that i would like to see different in this country of ours, is that prov. and fed. gov. get its $#!7 in order. In my humble opinion both level of gov are using us (Canadians) as a whipping boy because some dikc haed nations somwhere are poluting sencesly, gov. can you plz stop taxing us for their sins.

There you have it, strait from a cranium of not schooled enough, working stiff.

#121 Nobody on 03.05.16 at 5:31 am

#74 sanddancer on 03.04.16 at 9:07 pm
Unless your actually going to do some research into how/ why the lower mainland has gone completely nuts then stop dismissing the idea that foreign $$ could be responsible for a lot of what is happening here…..people who live and work here are trying to tell you what is happening !!
People I trust are saying that 80%+ of deals done on the west side of vancouver are foreign $$ deals…..that a lot more than 5% !!!
Vancouver is changing drastically and foreign $$ are largely responsible. …fact! !

More importantly, so what? None of you whiners will change market forces, so be smart about the situation. — Garth
__________________________________

So, I guess Garth doesn’t believe in government regulation and, more importantly, in the democratic process as a force for change.

Citizens should just suck it up and let market forces ( read greed and corruption ) do as they wish. I suppose by that thinking, labour unions for improving the lives of workers should have never been formed, and citizen movements for bettering society have never succeeded historically.

#122 Cap'n Canuck on 03.05.16 at 5:32 am

Garth you need to spend a little time down here in the US of A.
Regarding the “big” employment numbers here yesterday:
A quick dive into the details shows the report is a lot weaker than the headline number indicates. Of the 242,000 jobs added, 304,000 of them were part time. That means the economy actually lost 62,000 full-time jobs. And by the way the BLS calculates a part time job as any job that is more than 1 hour per week. Hmmmmm…Recession ahead if we are not in it already!!

#123 mark on 03.05.16 at 5:43 am

http://www.theprovince.com/business/vancouver+real+estate+mainland+chinese+buyers+market+study+says/11485289/story.html

“We’re still at the point where we won’t even admit we have an issue, while other jurisdictions have studied this or taken action,” Eby said. “It’s my hope this data shows that this money has a profound influence.”

Canada does not collect data on foreign ownership, and the citizenship of buyers in Yan’s study is not clear. But Yan established that 66 per cent of all buyers had “non-anglicized” Mainland China names.

Ethnic Chinese comprised 73 per cent of all buyers. Five per cent of buyers were corporations, but the people behind the investment vehicles were not identified. Of 32 homes sold for more than $4 million, 94 per cent of owners were ethnic Chinese and the rest were corporations.

The study also showed that five of eight homes owned by “students” were bought outright with cash at an average value of $3.2 million.

Tax experts have raised concerns that offshore investors are exploiting tax code loopholes to evade GST and capital gains. Housewives and students with little or no declared income can live briefly in Vancouver and flip properties tax-free, reports say, while claiming a home is a primary residence. In some of these so-called “astronaut” family arrangements, the real homebuyer lives and works in China while flowing money through relatives into Vancouver in order to store wealth.

#124 mark on 03.05.16 at 5:52 am

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/rbc-mortgage-limit-size-1.3299631?cmp=rss

The Royal Bank of Canada scrapped an internal limit on mortgage loan size for immigrants in the spring to tap into surging demand for financing on multi-million dollar houses by newcomers to Vancouver.

Wealthy buyers, mostly from China, are fueling a booming mortgage business in Vancouver, where the median price for a detached home on the desirable west side jumped 31 per cent to $2.87 million in the last two years.

RBC, Canada’s largest bank, removed its $1.25 million cap on loans to borrowers with no local credit history in May, said Christine Shisler, the bank’s Director of Multicultural Markets, who works with an immigrant clientele.
A case study released on Monday, which looked at six months worth of detached home sales in prime neighbourhoods near the University of British Columbia (UBC) main campus, found that two-thirds of buyers had names typical of people from mainland China and 88 per cent of those people also had a mortgage. The mortgages, on homes ranging in value from $1.25 million to more than $9 million, were mainly backed by three banks — HSBC Canada, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) and Bank of Montreal (BMO).
While there is no official data on foreign ownership in Canada, realtors who work in Vancouver’s luxury market say more than 80 per cent of buyers have ties to mainland China, with demand strong despite this summer’s Chinese stock market plunge and President Xi Jinping’s corruption crackdown.

#125 Unbearable Cognitive Uncertainties on 03.05.16 at 7:40 am

Garth, you may have read (or heard) about the “Vollgeld Initiative” undertaken by the sovereign Swiss people within the broader framework of Monetary Modernization (MoMo) endeavor. If, we canadians, by a large stretch of imagination, were to be inspired by this and followed suit, do you genuinely think this to be a cause worth standing up for?

#126 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.05.16 at 8:26 am

@#107 Hopeful but realistic.

“Great response. This crowdedelevatorfartz character is a continuing windbag on this blog and needs more wraps on the knuckle to awaken any sense of maturity hopefully he/she may be able to exhibit”
*******************************************

Seriously? That was a great responce coming from a person that absorbs the non stop drivel brought to us by the lame stream media? Yeesh.
Windbag? Well at least I come by it honestly.
F.Y.I……I ate pork and beans last night for dinner and plan on a huge bowl of bran this am all while washing it down with a gallon of coffee.
THAT is the defininion of “windbag”.
As for “maturity” well……thats up to the moderator…..I find the whole “mature” thingy a tad too politically correct aka BORING!
As for “Horsehoes and handgrenades” ….time to start your own blog where I can come and visit?….I promise I wont stink up the place too badly.

Well my tummy is gurgling and there are elevators in openhouse condominiums to ride so ………….au revoir.

#127 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.05.16 at 8:27 am

Hows the head this am Smokey?
You were getting pretty garbled there at one point and I dont mean the internet connection…….

#128 Retired Boomer WI on 03.05.16 at 8:44 am

Latest U.S. employment numbers smell to me of overcooking…

Many countries around the world who borrowed in US currency are finding it much harder to repay that debt.
Appreciating US Dollar, plus their own currencies actions are putting severe pressure on their abilities to repay.

That, IS a factor in deciding when, and how much to raise your interest rates when you are the US.

Economy here appears ‘ok’ for the present…

#129 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.05.16 at 9:05 am

@#107 Hope and ruin

For verbose and voluminous comments ( aka windbag) please see “Mark” at #10, 43, 112 and 119…….

Oh, almost forgot.
Whenever I’m not up to “snuff” and lack “windbaggage” I always carry a backup…

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=7&cad=rja&uact=8&sqi=2&ved=0ahUKEwif1dHq2anLAhUO9GMKHYk3AhMQFgg7MAY&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.amazon.com%2FRhode-Island-Novelty-Stink-Bombs%2Fdp%2FB0017S4BEU&usg=AFQjCNH7Mu9m2UyNPDruhSVbfwa-09GC7A&sig2=eqsh43KWRPML-SHV16YTCQ&bvm=bv.116274245,d.cGc

And , judging by the amount of people interested in purchasing…..I’m not the only immature plebe on the planet.

#130 salonist on 03.05.16 at 9:16 am

Giving up Canadian residence

http://www.taxplanningguide.ca/tax-planning-guide/section-2-individuals/giving-canadian-residence/

#131 For those about to flop... on 03.05.16 at 9:36 am

#74 sanddancer on 03.04.16 at 9:07 pm
Unless your actually going to do some research into how/ why the lower mainland has gone completely nuts then stop dismissing the idea that foreign $$ could be responsible for a lot of what is happening here…..people who live and work here are trying to tell you what is happening !!
People I trust are saying that 80%+ of deals done on the west side of vancouver are foreign $$ deals…..that a lot more than 5% !!!
Vancouver is changing drastically and foreign $$ are largely responsible. …fact! !

///////////////////////////////////

I too believe it is higher than 5% , but nowhere near 80 that’s for sure.
A lot of westsiders that owned before 2005ish have been able to move up the ladder using their equity.

I have repeat clients that have played the game and have won for now.A lot of them started off in average houses and now have some of the nicer houses in their area and so they realize they are lucky and have stopped moving as there is no where better to go unless they pull 10 million from somewhere.

As I have stated on the blog before in the last 5 years from Granville st west I believe the number of foreign buyers to be between 10/15%.

I don’t have any data, I just live it everyday.
I only get to witness a tiny percentage of the deals but as everyone seems obsessed with what going on the topic comes up with other contractors.

Everyone has their own guesses as to what is going on and if a few Chinese buyers move into their street then they are being taken over.

As pointed on this blog endlessly,it seems to be a combination of cheap credit,foreign investment,move up buyers and local speculators.

I am grateful for the work ,but I don’t like to see these lovely homes sitting empty and neighborhoods getting new shiny houses yet sliding into decline…

M41BC

#132 For those about to flop... on 03.05.16 at 9:41 am

I was going to do this comment last night ,but after the boss thought I took it too far I thought I’d save it for today.

Look at the picture…not only is the guy in the green t-shirt getting an eyeful but the guy with the red collar is doing alright as well…

M41BC

#133 Doug in Delhi (no, not Delhi, ON) on 03.05.16 at 9:46 am

So commodities are recovering, including oil, recently. So, what about those “experts” who said oil was going to $20 per barrel? I’m still impatiently sitting here, tapping my foot, waiting for that prediction to come true.

That came from Goldman Sachs. Oil is notoriously volatile. Anything can happen, so don’t wear your foot out. — Garth

#134 Retired Boomer WI on 03.05.16 at 9:48 am

#105 Amanda Fawcell

I wish I could understand where your ideas are based.

Apparently, you never lived during really inflationary times have you? I am a ‘saver’ at least I have been over the last 35 years or so.

I think one needs to have some ‘savings’ to cover unforeseen emergencies without incurring debt.

One also needs to put aside a reasonable portion of income toward their retirement years. (10-15% is good).

So, assuming one puts 10-15% of their gross income into long term investments, and a few bucks into savings for emergencies, car downpayments, whatever… you should be able to live on 80% of your income.

If you can’t you fall into the ‘dumbass group’… simple, really.

#135 Ontario's Left Coast on 03.05.16 at 10:33 am

#105 Amanda Fawcell – Incur debt like they are doing, and live lavishly. Go with the flow. Savers = Losers.

I’m assuming you are saying this in jest. Make no mistake, the person with no debts and a cash hoard (properly invested, of course) behind them will be holding all the cards. They will have endless options and the kind of peace of mind you will never know.

Good luck with that, though.

#136 zee on 03.05.16 at 10:54 am

Garth

All of us want you to acknowledge that foreign money is a much bigger influence on the housing market in certain areas, like Vancouver and parts of GTA, then this 5% that you continue to maintain.

It could be that your definition of foreign money is too narrow.

When was the last time you actually went looking to buy a house?

Foreign buyers are a fact of life in a globalized society. In Toronto nobody actually cares if an Iranian warlord buys a $14 million estate or that most of Brampton is from South East Asia, or all of suburban Unionville has gone from anglo to Asian. It’s just reality that nothing is static, especially in an economy full of cheap money and sauced with house lust. All Vancouverites are doing right now is showing an urban immaturity by whining that things are different from the way they were decades ago. Get over it. Deal with it. Cash in and use the money in a more effective manner. Alter your purchase plans, to delay or relocate. Wait for the inevitable swinging-back of the pendulum. But don’t expect any government regulation to change the current situation, as that simply will not occur. And moaning here is the most useless of exercises. — Garth

#137 Penny Henny on 03.05.16 at 11:13 am

The S&P 500 closed the week at 1999.99.
It’s on sale!

#138 OttawaGuyRenting on 03.05.16 at 11:46 am

Ok, a young Chinese looking couple, with a Chinese looking kid bought a house barely speaking English, can you guess? Are they Canadian or are they Chinese?
I know that one is too difficult for you Garth!
————-

This is just stupid !
Racist much?

#139 tkid on 03.05.16 at 11:49 am

#105 Amanda Fawcett – do you remember the scene from the Empire Strikes Back? The scene where Princess Leia is screaming ‘it’s a trap!’ That’s what debt is.

Want to avoid the trap? Avoid debt.

Debt makes you unhappy. It makes you stay in an apartment instead of taking a year off and seeing the world. It makes you stay with an employer because you can’t afford to quit. It makes you live like a pauper because you can’t afford the occasional steak.

And why would they trap you? Because the earlier you avoid debt, the earlier you start saving, the more and more independance you make for yourself.

When I finally graduated (24 years of age) and got The Job (loading paper into printers – entry level job natch), I made sure to toss $25 bucks into an RRSP savings account every month. It was a nothing amount that took a year to turn into something worth tossing into a GIC. When I became eligible for the Shares program at work, I signed up. I signed up for the contributory pension plan. I gave up my apartment close to work to go live with mom again.

I pay mom rent, and go through a 5 hour commute every other day. Why? So I can toss extra into savings. Do you know how much fun a 5 hour commute isn’t? But watching my savings grow means when the Boss of Bosses saunters around the floor, making demands that I train Others From Elsewhere on how to do my job, I have the freedom to tell them where to go and how to get there.

Credit cards, mortgages, car loans, they are all traps. Be savvy, avoid ’em.

#140 LP on 03.05.16 at 11:58 am

#132 For those about to flop… on 03.05.16 at 9:41 am

Boy, that’s way more immature than I’ve come to expect from you.

F68ON

#141 Come on now on 03.05.16 at 12:15 pm

#138 OttawaGuyRenting
“Racist much?”

What a cheap cop out.

An instinctive thought terminating cliche (look up the term) used by conservatives to shut down any objection to selling out our country and our common interests.

Is it “racist” to question how much influence foreign nationals have on the affordability of our housing markets? Prices are determined at the margin, even a 5% increase in demand can double prices if the demand is sufficiently inelastic. But now we’re getting too deep in the economic weeds, and there’s little point getting academic with people that prefer to converse at the Toews level.

Is it racist to prioritize the affordability of housing for Canadians of, say, Chinese ancestry over the investment needs of Chinese nationals also of Chinese ancestry?

What does race have to do with anything? We’re talking about citizenship here, something that conservatives insist shouldn’t be taken for granted, and this whole citizen-of-the-world bullshit applies only to multi-millionaires.

For the rest of us, we are Canadians and have to worry about Canada’s well being, because we are stuck with the consequences. Unlike the rich, we are not in a position to jump from country to country like a bee from flower to flower in search of lower tax rates and more suitable environments.

That’s why for us Canadians with loyalty to Canada and without desire to move, the environment matters, our local economy matters, lots of things matter and should be prioritized before the profits of multinationals or the desire of the very rich to feel like they’re citizens of every nation, with full rights but no responsibilities.

Poster 138 was correct. The comment he reacted to was 100% race-based. Do not try to justify it. — Garth

#142 common sense on 03.05.16 at 12:29 pm

#132 Flopper

Good eye Flopper! Always have to LOOK to see the entire picture don’t you.

Keep your eyes on the prize!

#143 common sense on 03.05.16 at 12:33 pm

#128 Boomer

Smelly numbers? Check out David Stockman’s view for a good laugh on the topic. Like Realtors, Governments massage numbers in their favour as well. Does ANYONE and I mean ANYONE tell the truth any more?

Glad your back and enjoyed Memphis..been there twice and enjoyed it both times…have a chance to visit the Civil rights museum? If not, a must visit.

#144 Bottoms_Up on 03.05.16 at 12:56 pm

#136 zee on 03.05.16 at 10:54 am
————————-
I am glad Garth has addressed this head on. It is what it is, much like Canada’s overall inflated housing market. Adapt, is really all you can do.

#145 For those about to flop... on 03.05.16 at 1:11 pm

#140 LP on 03.05.16 at 11:58 am
#132 For those about to flop… on 03.05.16 at 9:41 am

Boy, that’s way more immature than I’ve come to expect from you.

F68ON

//////////////////////////

Hey LP,yeah I thought I might get a chirp about that one.
That one was for the boys on the blog.

Anyway I do have a mischievous streak as I am the Tasmanian Devil, but that is why some people are attracted to the blog…it is finance with some Frank’s red hot sauce on the side.

Besides all that, I don’t believe we’ve spoke since New Year’s Eve and I hope your 2016 is going alright and your new dog is now an established part of the family.

M41BC

#146 LeisureFreak Tommy on 03.05.16 at 1:45 pm

Love the article. I am happy to finally read a common sense perspective. It seems that fear mongering has been the strategy of late, possibly to cause panic based market movement. Opps, a conspiracy theory slip. Being debt free (no stupid debt), having a short term cash bucket, along with income producing and long term investments has a proven track record for financial success. During the first months of 2016 market drop and selloff I was reminded of the saying: Be careful when you follow the masses, sometimes the “M” is silent.

#147 Mark on 03.05.16 at 2:01 pm

“WHO IS THE GREATERFOOL at the end of this chain? Can someone on these blog sites find one and bring back the story? “

This guy, and probably dozens, if not hundreds of other people just like him, would be whom I nominate:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/investigations/the-real-estate-technique-fuelling-vancouvers-housing-market/article28634868/

““It worries me a lot that this could all come crashing down. I worry about it all the time,” said one Re/Max agent, Khalid Hasan, who said he owns or co-owns 15 to 20 properties, all destined for resale.”

Yes, good old fashioned “at home” (no pun intended) Canadian citizen speculators. Not “Chinese”.

With the declining housing market in Vancouver, no wonder they’re getting to desperate to put on a show and unload “inventory”.

#148 meslippery on 03.05.16 at 2:28 pm

Food Stamps
How many people use SNAP in the United States?

As of January 2016, 45.4 million persons were participating in SNAP.
http://www.snaptohealth.org/snap/snap-frequently-asked-questions/

#149 Mark on 03.05.16 at 2:34 pm

“So commodities are recovering, including oil, recently. So, what about those “experts” who said oil was going to $20 per barrel? “

Oil prices still need to be at levels that provides for a gradual reduction in global production to match demand. The current move, in light of inventory numbers, which appear on track to get far worse, seems a bit over-done to me. Likely a sort of ‘bear raid’ if you’re into trader lingo. Back into the mid-low $20s is still entirely plausible. The CAD$ probably won’t follow oil down as severely this time as falling RE prices are gradually working to truncate Canadian consumer demand.

“88 per cent of those people also had a mortgage.”

Very true, hence, its not people (ie: “Chinese”) with suitcases of money driving the Vancouver market, but rather credit emitted from local lenders.

Not to allege any conspiracy, but a few of these sales may very well be going through simply in an attempt to set higher reference valuations so that the credit lines can be expanded further. After all, lots of small and medium sized businesses (and mini RE empires) in China are in severe trouble at the moment on account of the economic slowdown. The big concern at YVR these days it not illicit currency importation, but rather, illicit exports of currency. The “foreign” community, as small as it is, is probably looking to sell, not buy RE at this point.

#150 BobC on 03.05.16 at 2:37 pm

Garth, #38 and #42
Whatever justification you try to come up with, I’ll never agree it’s the governments right to take, using as much force as needed, one persons money or property and hand it over to another person. I feel that charity groups, churches and families should take care of those that need help.
Guess I’d make a lousy Canadian.

#151 sockeye sam on 03.05.16 at 2:54 pm

Nice riding the Ponzi Scheme to the top when your one of the first people in over here on the bent side of Van.If it folds I’m still safe. Greedy little bastards! And I hope it does fold then maybe my taxes will go down. I’m getting tired of looking at all these Bentley’s and Mercedes while I drive around in my beat up old pick up truck.

#152 monm on 03.05.16 at 2:54 pm

The real estate market reminds me of the storage wars you see on TV where one smiling bidder keeps over biding another and then backs out at the last minute in order to inflate the price of the unit. I wonder who this over bidder is working for.

#153 nubbers on 03.05.16 at 3:00 pm

Squamish @1

My wife and I were very tempted and it’s well within our ability but this seems a little nutty.

How much further upside could there be at 750k?

Well within your ability, but at what interest rate?

After a 92% rise to 750K, the upside is a warm fuzzy feeling that you will have paid for someone to retire who would otherwise might have had to live in poverty.

#154 Siva on 03.05.16 at 3:30 pm

On HGTV Fixer Upper a house in Texas is listed for $140k and didn’t sell for two years. Finally it’s sold for $50k.

#155 LP on 03.05.16 at 3:35 pm

#145 For those about to flop… on 03.05.16 at 1:11 pm
Besides all that, I don’t believe we’ve spoke since New Year’s Eve and I hope your 2016 is going alright and your new dog is now an established part of the family.
M41BC

I can go for the Frank’s Hot Sauce as long as that vacuous old woman who does the ads for Frank’s isn’t part of the equation. She drives me crazy and I mute her every time; in fact, I’m boycotting the stuff until she’s off the air!

As to Robin, our new dog, she is wonderful, adapting seamlessly into our rather staid and quiet retired life. For a while we thought we might have to rename her “Bungalow” because she would not attempt the stairs. However, after all these weeks she will finally consent to come up to the bedroom level (where our only television is) but only after much coaxing. Yesterday we took her to the nursing home where my mother lives and she charmed one and all with her calm demeanour and happy disposition. Of course, being a female, she prefers and defers to my husband over me but that’s okay…I expected that. When we had males in the past, it was the other way around.

I’ve been taking a break from the blog comments a lot lately. The quasi economic experts, the racists, and garden-variety yahoos are wearying. I’m no economic expert; I have to pay a professional to manage my investments (such as they are); and I readily confess to a [very] occasional bout of xenophobia too. But for a while now some of the posts here have been way over the top. Some things you just can’t un-read, you know what I mean?

Anyway, good to hear from you and thanks for asking about my dog.

F68ON

#156 Squamish on 03.05.16 at 3:54 pm

@153 nubbers:
“Well within your ability, but at what interest rate?

After a 92% rise to 750K, the upside is a warm fuzzy feeling that you will have paid for someone to retire who would otherwise might have had to live in poverty.”

We’d be doing 50% down payment so no real risk to us except the opportunity cost.

#157 Ontario's Left Coast on 03.05.16 at 3:56 pm

#131 For those about to flop… on 03.05.16 at 9:36 am
Re: Percentage of foreign owned

Hey Flop. For what it’s worth, I trust your ‘boots on the ground’ estimate way more than all of the other crap you read out there combined. Thanks for sharing your experience in an absolutely crazy market.

I do have one question for you… Do you find yourself missing Freedom First, even a little bit? For me things just aren’t quite the same. Cheers brother.

M48ON

#158 Harbour on 03.05.16 at 3:58 pm

Does anything come closer to the The Tulip and Bulb Craze than the Canadian Real Estate Craze?

When: 1634-1637
Where: Holland

The amount the market declined from peak to bottom: This number is difficult to calculate, but, we can tell you that at the peak of the market, a person could trade a single tulip for an entire estate, and, at the bottom, one tulip was the price of a common onion.

Synopsis: In 1593 tulips were brought from Turkey and introduced to the Dutch. The novelty of the new flower made it widely sought after and therefore fairly pricey. After a time, the tulips contracted a non-fatal virus known as mosaic, which didn’t kill the tulip population but altered them causing “flames” of color to appear upon the petals. The color patterns came in a wide variety, increasing the rarity of an already unique flower. Thus, tulips, which were already selling at a premium, began to rise in price according to how their virus alterations were valued, or desired. Everyone began to deal in bulbs, essentially speculating on the tulip market, which was believed to have no limits.

The true bulb buyers (the garden centers of the past) began to fill up inventories for the growing season, depleting the supply further and increasing scarcity and demand. Soon, prices were rising so fast and high that people were trading their land, life savings, and anything else they could liquidate to get more tulip bulbs. Many Dutch persisted in believing they would sell their hoard to hapless and unenlightened foreigners, thereby reaping enormous profits. Somehow, the originally overpriced tulips enjoyed a twenty-fold increase in value – in one month!

Needless to say, the prices were not an accurate reflection of the value of a tulip bulb. As it happens in many speculative bubbles, some prudent people decided to sell and crystallize their profits. A domino effect of progressively lower and lower prices took place as everyone tried to sell while not many were buying. The price began to dive, causing people to panic and sell regardless of losses.

Dealers refused to honor contracts and people began to realize they traded their homes for a piece of greenery; panic and pandemonium were prevalent throughout the land. The government attempted to step in and halt the crash by offering to honor contracts at 10% of the face value, but then the market plunged even lower, making such restitution impossible. No one emerged unscathed from the crash. Even the people who had locked in their profit by getting out early suffered under the following depression.

The effects of the tulip craze left the Dutch very hesitant about speculative investments for quite some time. Investors now can know that it is better to stop and smell the flowers than to stake your future upon one.

#159 Harbour on 03.05.16 at 4:16 pm

The Florida Real Estate Craze

When: 1926
Where: Florida

The amount the market declined from peak to bottom: Land that could be bought for $800,000 could, within a year, be resold for $4 million before crashing back down to pre-boom levels. The prices were so inflated that to buy a condo-style property in 1926, you would’ve had to pay the same as you would now have to pay for a luxury home in the guard-gated communities in Miami ($4,500,000) – without adjusting for inflation!

Synopsis: In the 1920s, the United States of America was chugging along like the British Empire of the 1700s, and it was only natural that people were beginning to believe such prosperity was infinite. But it wasn’t the stock market that was the recipient of a bubble. It was the real estate market.

In 1920, Florida became the popular U.S. destination/residence for people who don’t like the cold. The population was growing steadily and housing couldn’t match the demand, causing prices to double and triple in some cases, which was not exactly unjustified at this point. But, news of anything doubling and tripling in price always attracts speculators. So, once people began pumping huge amounts of money into the real estate market it took off. Soon everyone in Florida was either a real estate investor or a real estate agent.

Unfortunately, the rules are the same whether you pay too much for a stock or for a piece of land: you have to make that much more to claim a profit. This did happen for awhile, and land prices quadrupled in less than a year. Eventually, however, there were no “greater fools” to buy the disgustingly overpriced land, and prices began to adjust ever so subtly. Speculators realized there was a limit to the boom, and began to sell their properties to solidify their profits while they could.

Then everybody simultaneously saw the writing on the wall, and panic selling ensued. With thousands of sellers and very few buyers, prices came down with a sickening thud, twitched a bit, and then crawled down even lower.

#160 Victoria on 03.05.16 at 4:37 pm

Compliance and foreign exchange ….

Foreign exchange companies in Canada have very strict compliance rules that they must follow. They HAVE to know where the money is coming from.

The banks for that matter have to follow the same rules. Often they do not follow the rules by FINTRACK etc. and happily pay fines as they are making more money on huge mortgage loans than if they turned people away.

Obsessed. — Garth

#161 Victoria on 03.05.16 at 4:41 pm

Canadian banks helping clients bend rules

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/the-law-page/canadian-banks-helping-clients-bend-rules-to-move-money-out-of-china/article26246404/

They simply pay the fines. My husband owns a foreign exchange company and is very aware of this.

Obsessed. — Garth

#162 Victoria on 03.05.16 at 5:00 pm

I spent 13 years working at the OECD and the organisation has done exentsive studies on money laundering – worth a read.

http://www.oecd.org/tax/exchange-of-tax-information/42223621.pdf

http://www.oecd.org/ctp/crime/realestatesectortaxfraudandmoneylaunderingvulnerabilities.htm

FINTRAC on money laundering in Vancouver – underreported.

http://www.rcinet.ca/en/2015/08/25/chinese-money-laundering-in-canadian-real-estate/

Obsessed. — Garth

#163 sanddancer on 03.05.16 at 5:03 pm

Garth,
It’s not about whining, it’s about reality and accepting the situation. I have , but you keep sticking to your line that foreign $$ in the lower mainland is an “urban myth” …..it’s not !!
The money flowing into this area and being invested into real estate is having as great an impact as low rates, debt accumulation and leverage. Please try to look into this further so that you may able to give a more ” balanced” approach that the one you keep trying to present.

There is no point ‘looking into’ buyer statistics because nothing short of changed economic conditions will affect the market. Every week I preach balance, investment alternatives and strategies. Follow them. Ignore them. Moan abut what you cannot afford. Your choice. — Garth

#164 Mark on 03.05.16 at 5:26 pm

“Many Dutch persisted in believing they would sell their hoard to hapless and unenlightened foreigners, thereby reaping enormous profits. Somehow, the originally overpriced tulips enjoyed a twenty-fold increase in value – in one month!”

Not only that, but it wouldn’t surprise me if there was a bifurcated market in tulips. One “price” quoted by the vendors of tulips who had a vested interest in inflating the tulips. And another price quoted by actual owners of tulip bulbs transacting in the market. Of course, the high tulip prices made the headlines because the speculators of the day likely controlled or heavily influenced the media.

The tulip bulb mix likely also was an issue at the time. Most buyers of tulips really don’t care if tulips are perfectly symmetrical, or if they’re absolutely cleaned of every spec of dirt possible. Put them in the ground with some good soil, water them, and they all grow up to be nice looking tulips. Yet these ‘perfect’ specimen/show tulips likely came to dominate the public discourse. Owners of lower-quality tulip bulbs likely were led to delude that their imperfect tulips had also experienced massive appreciation along with the tulips that were capturing the headlines. Perhaps even taking out credit or going on spending binges on the alleged (but deluded) “wealth” of holding inventories of lower-grade tulip bulbs.

#165 BE FEARFUL VERY FEARFUL on 03.05.16 at 6:04 pm

Suicide and depression is rampant, people are on anti-depressant tablets … you’re never shown this side of the story.

http://www.domain.com.au/news/what-to-do-when-property-bubbles-burst-35-million-in-the-red-20160223-gn086p/

#166 AfterTheHouseSold on 03.05.16 at 6:13 pm

Gotta love this:
“… Alberta won’t be buying power from B.C. if it can’t get its oil to the coast.”

http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/b-c-premiers-proposal-to-export-power-to-alberta-looks-dead-on-arrival?__lsa=e0b6-8051

#167 Penny Henny on 03.05.16 at 6:22 pm

#158 Harbour on 03.05.16 at 3:58 pm
Does anything come closer to the The Tulip and Bulb Craze than the Canadian Real Estate Craze?

When: 1634-1637
Where: Holland

The amount the market declined from peak to bottom: This number is difficult to calculate, but, we can tell you that at the peak of the market, a person could trade a single tulip for an entire estate, and, at the bottom, one tulip was the price of a common onion.

Synopsis: In 1593 tulips were brought from Turkey and introduced to the Dutch. The novelty of the new flower made it widely sought after and therefore fairly pricey. After a time, the tulips contracted a non-fatal virus known as mosaic, which didn’t kill the tulip population but altered them causing “flames” of color to appear upon the petals. The color patterns came in a wide variety, increasing the rarity of an already unique flower. Thus, tulips, which were already selling at a premium, began to rise in price according to how their virus alterations were valued, or desired. Everyone began to deal in bulbs, essentially speculating on the tulip market, which was believed to have no limits.

The true bulb buyers (the garden centers of the past) began to fill up inventories for the growing season, depleting the supply further and increasing scarcity and demand. Soon, prices were rising so fast and high that people were trading their land, life savings, and anything else they could liquidate to get more tulip bulbs. Many Dutch persisted in believing they would sell their hoard to hapless and unenlightened foreigners, thereby reaping enormous profits. Somehow, the originally overpriced tulips enjoyed a twenty-fold increase in value – in one month!

Needless to say, the prices were not an accurate reflection of the value of a tulip bulb. As it happens in many speculative bubbles, some prudent people decided to sell and crystallize their profits. A domino effect of progressively lower and lower prices took place as everyone tried to sell while not many were buying. The price began to dive, causing people to panic and sell regardless of losses.

Dealers refused to honor contracts and people began to realize they traded their homes for a piece of greenery; panic and pandemonium were prevalent throughout the land. The government attempted to step in and halt the crash by offering to honor contracts at 10% of the face value, but then the market plunged even lower, making such restitution impossible. No one emerged unscathed from the crash. Even the people who had locked in their profit by getting out early suffered under the following depression.

The effects of the tulip craze left the Dutch very hesitant about speculative investments for quite some time. Investors now can know that it is better to stop and smell the flowers than to stake your future upon one.
//////////////////////////////////////

What about the squirrels ?

#168 Penny Henny on 03.05.16 at 6:26 pm

#164 Mark on 03.05.16 at 5:26 pm
“Many Dutch persisted in believing they would sell their hoard to hapless and unenlightened foreigners, thereby reaping enormous profits. Somehow, the originally overpriced tulips enjoyed a twenty-fold increase in value – in one month!”

Not only that, but it wouldn’t surprise me if there was a bifurcated market in tulips. One “price” quoted by the vendors of tulips who had a vested interest in inflating the tulips. And another price quoted by actual owners of tulip bulbs transacting in the market. Of course, the high tulip prices made the headlines because the speculators of the day likely controlled or heavily influenced the media.
/////////////////////////////////////

Don’t forget about the sales mix on the tulips Mark.

#169 For those about to flop... on 03.05.16 at 6:30 pm

#157 Ontario’s Left Coast on 03.05.16 at 3:56 pm
#131 For those about to flop… on 03.05.16 at 9:36 am
Re: Percentage of foreign owned

Hey Flop. For what it’s worth, I trust your ‘boots on the ground’ estimate way more than all of the other crap you read out there combined. Thanks for sharing your experience in an absolutely crazy market.

I do have one question for you… Do you find yourself missing Freedom First, even a little bit? For me things just aren’t quite the same. Cheers brother.

M48ON

//////////////////////////

Hey OLC,the number I throw out of 10- 15% is just my guesstimate.
I have no agenda ,no dog in the fight.
I Am just a blue collar worker who deals with these issues daily and by communicating with other colleagues I find out what’s happening in the market.
People just start blurting out facts and figures with out me even asking because things have been so good ,I guess.
When I started to read this blog I thought I could contribute a little bit on this subject which is part of the reason I chose to have a handle.

I don’t read the news paper, don’t have any social media accounts and will work for you if you are blue collar like me or are a billionaire as long as you pay me,I really don’t care.

I disclosed on the blog the other day that I used to work for the second richest man on the planet but in Vancouver when I work for famous people I pretend I don’t know who they are.

They find it refreshing and feel a t ease with me because I don’t talk about their careers are ask for autographs or anything cheesy like that.They are my boss at that point so I act professionally and treat them and their property with respect.

Regarding FF, I said a couple of weeks ago I wasn’t quite the same.
He enjoyed the attention and we had some good jokes at each other expense ,but when I had surgery at Xmas time he wished me well and when I fold him my wife was my best friend ,he said i was a lucky man and was sincerely happy for me.

Only he knows why he stopped posting but I did not find the whole imposter thing funny at all.
Sure pretend to be someone’s wife / old man whatever but you should never post under someone else name.

People have said on here you should post only under your birth name, but I am not posting anonymously as the boss knows my full name and my wife’s.
I need a handle to protect myself a little bit.

It would not be to hard to find out who I was as there are not too many people with the details I have disclosed here in the past.

Anyway that sounds all too serious ,Freedom First come back so I can tear you apart like a piñata…

Candy anyone?

M41BC

#170 Tomjones on 03.05.16 at 7:41 pm

Garth for conservative party leader?

#171 Craiger on 03.05.16 at 7:42 pm

#136

Foreign buyers are a fact of life in a globalized society. In Toronto nobody actually cares if an Iranian warlord buys a $14 million estate or that most of Brampton is from South East Asia, or all of suburban Unionville has gone from anglo to Asian. It’s just reality that nothing is static, especially in an economy full of cheap money and sauced with house lust. All Vancouverites are doing right now is showing an urban immaturity by whining that things are different from the way they were decades ago. Get over it. Deal with it. Cash in and use the money in a more effective manner. Alter your purchase plans, to delay or relocate. Wait for the inevitable swinging-back of the pendulum. But don’t expect any government regulation to change the current situation, as that simply will not occur. And moaning here is the most useless of exercises. — Garth

———————

Garth well said, yet again. You should perhaps post this on your main page. To those blog dogs who suffer from excessive house lust – read the above again very carefully and slowly, heck print it out and recite it out loud before bed. Be savvy with your investments and seize opportunities when they arise … and as always have a plan B, stay diversified and try to protect your capital as best you can.

Thanks Garth.

#172 BillyBob on 03.05.16 at 7:52 pm

I find our host’s attempts to portray all concern about foreign influence on local markets as either whining, or something that only occurs in Vancouver, a bit odd.

I can assure that there are plenty of folks in Ontario just as worried about future affordability due to distorted markets as those in BC. Or is this just the usual Toronto-centric superiority complex at play? How boring, and a bit unexpected.

Glib dismissiveness with a shrug and “globalization”, as if laissez-faire were a foregone conclusion, is simplistic. As much of a fan as I am, and now somewhat of an outsider to Canada, I have to say the over-sensitivity to mentions of race is somewhat quaint. If one wants to champion globalization, it should be acknowledged that race and culture absolutely play roles, given the many different ones there are around the globe. Can’t have it both ways. Not everything about allowing money to flow in unimpeded is sunshine and ponies.

The political correctness of Canada is its weakness, not its strength. It is currently being exploited to the max.

The advice here seems to be to adapt to the situation. There is no competing for the average Canadian with outside money. I could not beat them, so I have joined them, and left, and return only to take as much as I can from the system in Canada and contribute as little as possible. Because believe me, that is how Canada is viewed from outside of her borders.

A place to be exploited. Abetted by the passiveness, wilful ignorance, and attitude that anything that attempts to defend against foreign influence is “racist”.

Someone admitting to taking as much as possible from Canada and contributing as little as possible has no lessons for us. — Garth

#173 sockeye sam on 03.05.16 at 7:54 pm

#149 Mark. Your the second person I’m offering to drive around my hood over here on the Bent side of Van.You need to see with your own eyes to really get a grasp on this madness. A young family with a child bidding a mil. over. I was living here when Kenny Rogers sold the most expensive house in North America for a mil.

#174 Victor V on 03.05.16 at 8:01 pm

#77 Smoking Man

After he picks his running mate, he adds a female for Secretary of State …

#175 MoneyMyHoney on 03.05.16 at 8:03 pm

For the fools who are waiting for a crash: If you are not in Alberta or neighbouring provinces, sorry, you are out of luck

http://www.fool.ca/2016/01/13/why-2016-wont-be-the-year-canadas-housing-bubble-bursts/

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/5-reasons-toronto-house-prices-won-t-crash-in-2016-1.3393299

#176 TRT on 03.05.16 at 8:36 pm

So why do you label anti-immigrant policies as racist? Many people don’t want rampant population growth. Care to respond?

Foreign buyers are a fact of life in a globalized society. In Toronto nobody actually cares if an Iranian warlord buys a $14 million estate or that most of Brampton is from South East Asia, or all of suburban Unionville has gone from anglo to Asian. It’s just reality that nothing is static, especially in an economy full of cheap money and sauced with house lust. All Vancouverites are doing right now is showing an urban immaturity by whining that things are different from the way they were decades ago. Get over it. Deal with it. Cash in and use the money in a more effective manner. Alter your purchase plans, to delay or relocate. Wait for the inevitable swinging-back of the pendulum. But don’t expect any government regulation to change the current situation, as that simply will not occur. And moaning here is the most useless of exercises. — Garth

#177 IHCTD9 on 03.05.16 at 8:50 pm

#73 Ok on 03.04.16 at 9:06 pm
Sorry Garth but discrediting with insults doesn’t make your argument better. People insult when they are wrong.
If you don’t want to see, then you are not going to see, Vancouver is turning into a Chinese province and I don’t like it because I don’t like communism, am I trashy for that? Don’t think so!
——

Honestly, when shopping the globe for new immigrants for Canada, we could do a whole lot worse than normal working, and especially, millionaire Chinese.

They make some lucky regular Canadians millionaires overnight that would never have been otherwise. They seem to work hard, seem to be family oriented, they are big on education, don’t see many of them ending up in jail either.

On top of all that, they don’t seem to mind paying (bonus: and capable of paying it) what will certainly be a sizeable tax load to fund my retirement in 20 years or so – this is a concrete reality of immigrating to Canukistan. They don’t seem to mind the idea of losing millions in equity when various housing bubbles pop and bid like crazy much to the joy of Canadian boomers everywhere. They borrow and spend like no one else on earth (at least in the GTA). Go to a few academic competitions, you’ll see that the Chinese always do well, but they also don’t mind taking what they’re giving when it comes to salary.

To me, just about any Asian (South Asians, Koreans, and Philipinos all seem to exhibit this good stuff too, except just not as loaded with cash as the Chinese) is a good bet for Canada, just as good as a European, especially if they’re loaded to the gills with cash to spend here – it’s not all just going into mega million dollar teardowns.

Immigration is a foregone conclusion in Canada, we have not been having enough kids to keep the financial ball rolling since the 70’s. It’s not about some progressive “multiculturalism” BS, it’s about money. Do you want to end up like Japan? We need them here to grow the economy, spend all their money here, have kids here, and most important of all, pay taxes here – and the more, the better. Rest assured, the CRA will eventually get whatever is due from the offshore earners, and China will be helping to that end. When finally the SHTF, I’m guessing Dad will be making a run for our shores to join his family – with whatever he can stuff in his bugout bag.

I ask you given this reality – who is going to dump more money into Canada than millionaire Chinese?

We are going to get more immigrants of some description no matter what.

Hell, Asians even get along great with us whiteys, and Asian women are hot! Lot’s of WMAF couples all over the place, even out in rural Canada. They are culturally compatible, many even follow traditional Western Religion, even the same basic denominations thereof.

Getting a crapload of family oriented, well educated, money laden, big spenders into this country is just plain good for the rest of us (yes, you might have to move to a cheaper area – do it, you’ll be glad you did).

That concludes my bigoted opinion for the day :)

#178 TurnerNation on 03.05.16 at 9:08 pm

I know a poor, whipped man my age who spends over 2hrs a day commuting to and fro his mid-town job and some soulless burb of the GTA. Stress tolls. Is this what he signed up for? (For his familia.)

Tag this #freedomfirst, #Mgtow?

#179 Vancouver Minority on 03.05.16 at 9:29 pm

It’s still too easy and simplistic to blame all of this bubble on foreign money here. The same kind of thing has been happening in many places, too easy to pin it on one group. Vancouver, Kits in particular, is okay but not fantastic as a place to live, nowhere near as interesting as when I lived in Montreal. Real estate here has a long way to fall, imho.

T38BC

#180 justin the job killer on 03.05.16 at 9:59 pm

US media ( like AP) are saying that Justin is coming to the US to kow tow to Obama and burnish his legacy. Does this mean the million jobs lost since the Liberal election are permanent? Aren’t we lucky to have voted in a clueless baby whose celebrity means more to the Liberals than the desperation of Canadian job seekers?

#181 Retired Boomer WI on 03.05.16 at 10:17 pm

Bernie Sanders wins Kansas caucus, and is the projected winner in Nebraska.

Hillary fit to be tied. Bill agrees to tie her up, which river to dump her into, yet to be determined.

Film at 11…

#182 DON on 03.05.16 at 10:26 pm

Property crash fears prompt banks to offload risk onto taxpayers
Banks and speculators are attempting to offload mortgage default risk onto unsuspecting taxpayers and pension funds amid fears of a looming property crash in London, ethical finance campaigners have warned
https://www.rt.com/uk/

#183 Smoking Man on 03.05.16 at 10:36 pm

Rubio such a man on his knees, mouth open wide . Be carful of a strog wind.

Those ears air o dynamic, bastard can fly well.

When the men in black had me and Barrington in the room asking about the usb krunt gave me in the strip joint , that had 911 shit on the usb

I replyed no. Didn’t need to see it. Videos of 911 . Buliding 7 That’s where I formed an opinion.

Humans in power dumb as shit

I told en I’m not taken you out. Even though you deserve it. Just can’t let your idiology make it to the next galaxy.

Nothing personal.

I’m a drunken nectonite. Take it for what it is.

#184 Bread Winner on 03.05.16 at 10:39 pm

Polls show Donald Trump winning the US election by a wide margin

http://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2684860854

What is that going to do to Canada after Justin has been shooting his mouth off and offensive name calling Mr Trump? Maybe Juniors pollsters should have shut him up before he dug our graves on the US relations front. Trudy’s zeal to meet with the swan song president might have caused him to say stupid things that we will all pay for when Trump gets into office.

#185 Bottoms_Up on 03.05.16 at 10:45 pm

Just saw another ontario doctors commercial. While I love our access to healthcare and the quality of care, there are some things that irk me. Can’t see my doctor without 3 or more days notice….the docs that work the walk-ins don’t show up until after all their waiting rooms are full….and when you finally get to see the doc, you’ve got about 30 seconds to plead your case.

I looked into it…they’ve been dinged by the province for 3.9% of billing fees. Thus, a doc that use to bill $350,000 is now billing $336,000 (or needing to see more patients to bill 350k). Is this something they need to be up in arms about?

#186 Peter S on 03.05.16 at 11:01 pm

Hey Smoking Man
We know Hunter Thompson invented Gonzo Journalism.
Did you invent Gonzo Blogging?

#187 Gaaaaaaaaaaaaaarth? on 03.05.16 at 11:10 pm

Sales in the Toronto area climbed more than 21 per cent in February from a year earlier. Even factoring in the extra leap year day, sales topped the previous February, 2010, record, the Toronto Real Estate Board said Thursday.

Toronto home prices soar 15%; sales post double-digit gain (BNN Video)

The average home price in the Toronto area climbed almost 15 per cent to $685,278, while the MLS home price index, deemed a better measure, showed a gain of 11.3 per cent.

In Toronto’s 416 area, the average price of a detached home is now above $1.2-million. In the surrounding 905 area, it’s now $816,705, according to TREB statistics.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/toronto-home-prices-surge-as-sales-far-outpace-new-listings/article29007589/

#188 OttawaGuyRenting on 03.05.16 at 11:19 pm

Poster 138 was correct. The comment he reacted to was 100% race-based. Do not try to justify it. — Garth
————

This is why I read daily. A former member of parliament with brains and common sense.

I participate in the forums very little. Reading as of late the Jingoistic diatribe from some with cues of racism is a real downer.

But I put up with it to read Canada’s most educational blog

#189 Rabbit One on 03.05.16 at 11:41 pm

>Wait for the inevitable swinging-back of the pendulum. But don’t expect any government regulation to change the current situation, as that simply will not occur. – Garth

Thank you for the great comment, Garth.

I also can see government will not tighten mortgage or immigration policy any time soon.
(very minor tightening happened in 2013,14, but with loopholes)

Mortgage lending policy, it seems government doesn’t mind banks lend more and more money to possibly non-qualified borrowers just a few years ago.
Appraisal is incredibly generous.

As Mark mentioned, almost all borrowers guaranteed to receive same best mortgage rates.

Even to refinance, HESLOC with fixed term rate option (Line accessible after pay down = more risks to the bank, but same rate as conventional mortgage).

Given to new hires, or to high turn over jobs, as far as they have current salary confirmation and good credit record
– in old days, those borrowers couldn’t borrow as much as now, and possibly be asked higher mortgage rate.

So, my understanding is with now so much debt in Canada, risks to invest in R/E are very high. At least higher than last year.

Staying put, be liquid still seem best deal to me.
(low seven is enough for me, I don’t want to sink lots of money in R/E)

But with your word, government doesn’t see as much risks ahead, correct?
(They will not do anything)

What is going to happen to this country?

So many blind participants in R/E games.

“Inevitable swinging-back of the pendulum” really happening some day?

#190 Ronaldo on 03.05.16 at 11:54 pm

#138 OttawaGuyRenting on 03.05.16 at 11:46 am

”Ok, a young Chinese looking couple, with a Chinese looking kid bought a house barely speaking English, can you guess? Are they Canadian or are they Chinese?
I know that one is too difficult for you Garth!”
——————————————————–

Ok, here’s one for you OttawaGuy:

Ok, a young French looking couple, with a French looking kid bought a house barely speaking English, can you guess? Are they Canadian or are they French?
I know that one is too difficult for you OttawaGuy!

#191 Ronaldo on 03.06.16 at 12:07 am

Correction to my previous post, should have been directed to #64 Ok, not #138 Ottawa Guy. Sorry OttawaGuy. Should have read:

Ok, here’s one for you #64 Ok:

Ok, a young French looking couple, with a French looking kid bought a house barely speaking English, can you guess? Are they Canadian or are they French?
I know that one is too difficult for you #64Ok!

There’s a prize for the correct answer.

#192 Steal of a deal on 03.06.16 at 1:05 am

1/2 DUPLEX can be yours for 1.1million. Boasting two floors and three bedrooms in beautiful Raincouver Buy now or be priced out 4ever!!!

#193 Nemesis on 03.06.16 at 3:03 am

“But don’t expect any government regulation to change the current situation, as that simply will not occur.” – HonGT

#FunnyYouShouldSayThat…

SCMP] – Citizenship revamp: New Canadians no longer have to intend to live in Canada: Trudeau government’s ‘total reversal’ of Tory policy also slashes residency requirements and gives credit for time spent as visitors or students

…”The proposed amendments to the Citizenship Act, unveiled last Thursday, remove the requirement that new citizens must intend to live in Canada after obtaining citizenship. According to the government, the intent-to-reside provision “created concern among some new Canadians, who feared their citizenship could be revoked in the future if they moved outside of Canada”.

Previously, citizenship was harder to obtain and easier to lose; now it’s easier to obtain and much harder to lose.

The proposals also shorten the period of physical presence required of new citizens to three years (1,095 days) out of the previous five, compared to four years out of six under the Tories; allow periods of non-permanent presence in Canada – for instance, time spent as a student, temporary worker or even a visitor – to be credited among those three years (albeit up to a maximum of one years’ credit, with each full day of non-permanent residency counting as half a day); and shrink the age band for applicants who must pass language tests, from 18-54, compared to 14-64 previously.”…

http://www.scmp.com/news/world/article/1919566/citizenship-revamp-new-canadians-no-longer-have-intend-live-canada

#194 hope & ruin on 03.06.16 at 3:33 am

#107 Hopeful but realistic is NOT hope & ruin

But you’re crowdedelevatorfarts stink.

You’re opinions do too.

#195 hope & ruin on 03.06.16 at 3:38 am

#164 Mark

I can’t tell if you’re rant on the ‘tulip bulb sales mix’ is satire or not.

But it is funny.

#196 Nobody on 03.06.16 at 6:34 am

Someone admitting to taking as much as possible from Canada and contributing as little as possible has no lessons for us. — Garth
_________________________________

Right, and all the talk about tax avoidance strategies for the rich that you so often spout here is somehow different? Isn’t that also about contributing as little as possible?

The poster made a totally valid point about how the system is being played, and you’re talking from both sides of your mouth again, me thinks.

The commenter in question presumably pays no tax to Canada and consumes services here because of citizenship. Tax avoidance by the resident wealthy still assumes they pay about 50% of their incomes in tax. You have no point. — Garth

#197 Jeff Dennis on 03.06.16 at 6:38 am

“Foreign buyers are a fact of life in a globalized society. In Toronto nobody actually cares if an Iranian warlord buys a $14 million estate or that most of Brampton is from South East Asia, or all of suburban Unionville has gone from anglo to Asian. It’s just reality that nothing is static, especially in an economy full of cheap money and sauced with house lust. ”

Well buddy, I can’t agree. In Thailand, foreigners, especially Chinese ( Chinese nationals are also excluded under many rules against buying/owning in Singapore and Australia) are excluded from buying land. They can buy condo’s up to 40% of a building but never land.

And I say specifically Chinese because the governments of both China and Thailand agree that Chinese graft money is a bad thing and are working hard over here to control the flow. Big signs at the airport warn Chines nationals specifically not to get up to any funny business.

The Chinese government does it’s part by banning any of their citizens from future travel who have thwarted the rules, so it’s not me being racist.

I gotta tell you friend, things work remarkably well for people here. Home ownership is local only and functions well without foreign interference. Thailand has a lot more ‘globalized’ businesses than Canada ( Head office abound, I work for one).

No one misses foreign ownership, there is no HAM and locals can buy a house no problem. There is no hyperinflation of hot money effect on property as in Vancouver. There is no hot money desperate to hidey hole in a safe jurisdiction from national laws in the home country.

Take a look at Vancouver and wonder why we’re so stupid not to keep our land for citizens and foreign buyers out like so many other countries do.

#198 steerage steward on 03.06.16 at 6:49 am

China ‘not heading for hard landing’.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35739295

Sometimes all you can do is laugh

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wfamPW3Eaw

#199 Rabbit One on 03.06.16 at 8:31 am

> #177 IHCTD9
>we could do a whole lot worse than normal working, and especially, millionaire Chinese.

>They are culturally compatible, many even follow traditional Western Religion, even the same basic denominations thereof.

Maybe you mentioned about old modern Chinese immigrants who came mostly in ’70~’90’s from Hong Kong, Taiwan and some from Singapore- M’sia (Oversea Chinese)?

if you think Mainland China shares similar value to western worlds, you don’t know them well yet.
(it is due to to communist history. opposite of the western value)
Canadian naiveness?

#200 For those about to flop... on 03.06.16 at 8:34 am

#195 hope & ruin on 03.06.16 at 3:38 am
#164 Mark

I can’t tell if you’re rant on the ‘tulip bulb sales mix’ is satire or not.

But it is funny

///////////////////////////////

What is normal?
My new definition of normal is next to Mark I look normal.
Arguing about something that happened in the 17th century as if your lunch today depended on it is not normal.
You want Trollstoy nee Toiletspray to get help maybe you can get a 2 for 1 deal.

Not real sure if you do it to spoil the blog or just to see if you can get a bite…you don’t need to argue about every point of every subject,you like to debate…we get it but do you not have any self control?

Pull your head out of your Marse…

M41BC

#201 Rabbit One on 03.06.16 at 8:43 am

Just to add: Emigration of Mainland is fairly new.
It is happening in large scale all over the world.

Agree that we Canada mostly has wealthy ones, which is good for this country.

Also, value would keep changing especially now many people expose to the western world, it just takes time.

#202 Siva on 03.06.16 at 9:22 am

//Chinese nationals are also excluded under many rules against buying/owning in Singapore and Australia//

That didn’t stop RE bubble in Singapore and Australia, particularly Australia where RE is in a huge bubble. May it’s not the Chinese then, may it’s just locals involved in speculation and flipping, some of whom happened to be of Chinese ethnicity.

#203 unbalanced on 03.06.16 at 10:16 am

To Victoria and Nobody. You are dead on. I have learnt long time ago that the truth hurts. I just stay quiet and play by my rules. Does Mulroney or the Bronfmans ring a bell!!!!

#204 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.06.16 at 10:34 am

@#197 hope and ruin
“But you’re crowdedelevatorfarts stink.

You’re opinions do too.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

And yet…. you encourage Mark…….
The world is doomed.

#205 Sam the Sham on 03.06.16 at 11:14 am

#59 Ronaldo

It’s not the fact that the Canadian government sold off all its (our) gold, it’s the fact that they bought U.S. fiat dollars to be Canada’s reserves. Can you think of a better investment than that? There are some pretty smart people at Finance for sure. LOL!!

You think hunks of rocks are better than the global reserve currency? That’s funny. — Garth

#206 hope & ruin on 03.06.16 at 12:12 pm

@ crowdedelevatorfartz

just joking. I like your posts. But I had to say it. Not sure how you mixed us up tho.

#207 aintnofool on 03.06.16 at 3:33 pm

#27 tundrapete
“Who the hell would ever want to compete against anyone for anything in the Lower Mainland. Wait till it all blows up soon then vultch. There certainly is a lot of good Maple deals out there right now. Scoop some of that up then head for a Mexican beach and let the Joneses attempt to keep up with each other.”

Late to the party and just read this. Admittedly not a Vancouverite but know those who are and I still love this last part. Let the joneses compete indeed and whine about the weather…while you live off interest income. Luckily for the most part we can work remotely. Husband unit is looking for soft retirement but likes what he does and only wants a bit more ‘hammock time’ by the water where location takes priority over ‘must have’ granite and stainless (per the Joneses). Another good Garth post.

Enjoy the coming warm front in most of Ontario for those of us who havent escaped yet.

#208 john on 03.06.16 at 4:08 pm

Why is it that the incomes in Vancouver are at best average, in Canada, yet homes are stratospheric? In the end, prices have to be tethered to the rest of the country, unless there is some other factor at play. Locals can’t afford those prices.

#209 Centre Wing on 03.07.16 at 10:32 am

What with “free” degrees for kids from households under 50k, your phrase that any job is better than no job isn’t always true here in Ontar-we-owe.

#210 Patrick on 03.08.16 at 11:24 am

Rate increase? (lol); and yes living in Toronto or Vancouver equals to a life of (debt)slavery.