The meme

COLLEGE modified

There are 358 houses (not condos) in central GTA listed for between $750,000 and a million. Some are dogs. Some okay. Some look great. Detached, all-brick, ample lots, decent locations, no dead cadavers in the basement or attic. No biker clubhouses next door.

Currently just under 10,000 houses are on Toronto’s MLS, down 14% from last year. Last month about 500 sold in the hot dollar zone mentioned above. The average price for all detached houses in the GTA was just under $850,000. As of Friday, buyers had 128 SFH properties to choose from for less than $500,000 – houses, not condos, most of them with grass and parking.

This is worth mentioning because it’s true. The greatest number of sales last month occurred in the $600,000 price range (350). The next strongest category (with 318 sales) was between $500,000 and $600,000. And detached houses, by the way, accounted for almost half of all property sales in the GTA in January, while just a third were condos.

Simply put, it’s a realtor-fueled myth the country’s biggest real estate market (by a huge margin) is a cauldron of ever-rising prices and dwindling affordability, with the average house coursing higher by double-digit amounts. For example, the average detached home in epicentre of 416, at $1,061,789, costs almost exactly what it did last spring. Could it be that housing’s peak has passed?

So let’s bring in Allan and Roxy. Here they are, as they appeared in blog dog Paul’s Willowdale (north Toronto) mailbox yesterday:

ROXY modified

Aren’t they cute? Who wouldn’t want to sell them a house? “We just got married and are looking for a home in your area where we can start our family.” Awww. “If you’re interested in selling your home, we’d love to learn more.” And to show that you can actually trust them: “We are not working with an agent.”

So what’s the deal?

Al & Rox did not return my phone call, sadly. Nor did a return email show up. So perhaps you can give it a try – and let us know. But there’s something odd about these two. Roxy, as it turns out, is a wedding planner-marketer who also trained as an urban planner.

Allan is more complex. He’s an American-educated lawyer with an MBA from Wharton business school and is now a senior advisor at Toronto’s MaRS business incubator. Check this bio out: “He was the president and co-founder of LeapPay, the online lending platform acquired by Funding Circle; the CEO and co-founder of HomeSav, a leading home decor flash sale site acquired by American Capital; and the co-founder of Mavencare, an on-demand senior’s care platform.”

He and Rocks also like publicity, as well as apparently being Very Bad at house-buying. This is not the first time they’ve pulled the postcard-blanketing-Toronto stunt. In fact after dumping thousands over six big neighbourhoods about a year ago they ended up featured in the Toronto Star. So this is what they really look like:

STAR PICTURE

The newspaper painted the two professionals as victims of a real estate market gone completely insane, in which anyone shopping for a place with less than a million is screwed. Here is how the story was spun last May:

After 18 months of open houses, eight failed bidding wars and bully offers that left them feeling helpless, yet again, Allan and Roxy Fisch have gone postal in their quest to find a house where they can start a family. In the last two weeks they’ve hand delivered 1,000 custom-crafted postcards in a handful of Toronto neighbourhoods.

The unusual effort is meant to put a face — two, in fact — on the enormity of the challenges facing young buyers in a market where sellers have all of the advantages thanks to demand that continues to far outstrip the number of houses listed for sale. The couple — like all young buyers looking to break out of condos and into houses — know that every failed bid is costing them time and money, given that real estate prices were up a staggering 10 per cent in April over a year earlier.

“It’s just become excruciatingly painful to go through this process, so we thought, let’s go out and speak to people directly because we know the areas we want to buy in and it’s not like we’re looking for anything unreasonable,” says Allan. “We just don’t want to go through this same game over and over again.”

But they are. Or claim to be. Nine months later, the kids keep pumping out the highly expensive mail. Since last spring over a thousand properties in their price range have changed hands, but these two spend their time marketing. Feeding the realtor meme that GTA houses are rare things that must be pounced upon.  You know, buy now, or buy never.

Brilliant. They teach good stuff at Wharton.

233 comments ↓

#1 Chaddywack on 02.19.16 at 6:38 pm

Vancouver’s Bentall Centre now owned by Chinese investors! Can’t wait to hear the spin.

http://www.nationalpost.com/chinese+investors+snag+vancouver+biggest+real+estate+prize+four+towers+bentall+centre/11725989/story.html

#2 Jimmy on 02.19.16 at 6:38 pm

One potato!

#3 Andy on 02.19.16 at 6:42 pm

If the Toronto market flat lines or gradually cools, this will be the best possible outcome in my mind!

#4 Furst on 02.19.16 at 6:43 pm

First?

#5 Rick on 02.19.16 at 6:45 pm

Only in Canada, pitty. For the moist ones look up Red Rose Tea.

#6 Smartalox on 02.19.16 at 6:45 pm

Probably a scam: they aren’t wearing wedding rings in the ‘real life’ picture.

#7 Jimmy on 02.19.16 at 6:47 pm

Why are they sideways?

#8 Kentaro Fujiki on 02.19.16 at 6:48 pm

Ichiban, bitches!

#9 Jimmy on 02.19.16 at 6:49 pm

Roxy and Allen
Allen and Roxy
Which is which

#10 Doug t on 02.19.16 at 6:50 pm

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah

Whew I almost wet myself reading this – LMFAO WTF – this is the new economy folks – not producing anything actually real or useful – just feeding the machine and growing the artificial bubble – thanks to peeps like these two coconuts the masses continue to blindly drink the koolaid. Hahahahahahahahaha it just doesn’t get any better – look at those two characters – I wouldn’t leave my dog with them

#11 Jimmy on 02.19.16 at 6:52 pm

They look better sideways.

#12 PEAK on 02.19.16 at 6:53 pm

Housing peaked sometime 2015 across all of Canada. Probably across the US and Europe as well.

Psst.. don’t tell the lemmings who are trying to sell this year and still hoping to catch a higher bid.

Why are the BC Liberals tinkering with the land transfer tax and introducing a 750k threshold?

Panic.

#13 bicepsnikes on 02.19.16 at 6:53 pm

Countdown until Nemesis shares off-topic schizophrenic ramblings filled with hastags that would never actually work on twitter… Hmmm, I’d say 40 posts.

#14 Lulu on 02.19.16 at 6:54 pm

Scammer gonna scam!! I never trust these mail or any sort from the”oh please help me with this, we are a family looking for a decent price house, NOT work with realtor, A BIG red flag!!

Let’s see how this gonna end!

#15 Scumop on 02.19.16 at 6:56 pm

I live near a (horse) race track.
I can smell something… stinky.

Is it the horses, or is it Roxy and Allan’s spiel?
Not really sure.

#16 Vicpaul on 02.19.16 at 6:57 pm

Hehe…the pic is laughably ironic. Who does stuff like that?

#17 Brian Ripley on 02.19.16 at 6:59 pm

Quote form Martin Armstrong “The high-end will now decline. The average home will make the transition, but will not be making new highs. In real terms, the high is in. Real estate varies tremendously based upon location. This is due to capital inflows that drive certain markets like Vancouver and Toronto in Canada or New York and Miami in the States.”

Last week I mashed up interviews and quotes and charts from Martin Armstrong, Hilliard Macbeth and Charles Hugh Smith … as well as my own “real” price pf real estate chart:

http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/armstrong-and-macbeth

“The key take-away: focus on owning income-producing assets, not a primary residence. The second key take-away: Don’t finance your assets with debt; finance your income-producing assets with savings and sweat equity, not borrowed money.” said Charles Hugh Smith

#18 incoming lawsuit on 02.19.16 at 7:00 pm

Prepare, they will call your lawyer and get all the proceeds from the ads on this blog. Hmmm you said don’t have ads? Will accept Smoking Man

#19 Rick on 02.19.16 at 7:01 pm

pity:)

#20 Big Mie on 02.19.16 at 7:02 pm

So he has sold two companies he founded and probably looking to sell the third. He should be able to afford anything he wants in 416 with the kind of money made from M&A. Where has all that money gone? Something smells fishy here and its not just his boxer/briefs!

#21 will on 02.19.16 at 7:03 pm

It’s all so vulgar. I can’t stand it.

#22 Hurtin' Albertan on 02.19.16 at 7:06 pm

Oil and the loonie are still in the toilet. Time to buy gold ETFs?

Miners or bullion?

#23 MBS on 02.19.16 at 7:09 pm

Wharton is going to be ” HUGE “

#24 Cici on 02.19.16 at 7:09 pm

Well, they’re probably flipping them, sans agent.

I mean if she were really serious about babies, she would’ve just gotten pregnant last year, or 18 months before that right? After all, babies and toddlers really don’t need backyards.

They’re just using the sob story about wanting to start a family to appeal to the thirsty folks whose life purpose revolved around house and family.

Presto! They get a bunch of calls from sympathetic old farts willing to sell them their house at or under market value with no threat of agents, bidding wars or bully offers that would probably accompany an MLS listing.

I bet they picked up at least a handful of houses last spring using Allan’s .com$$, then turned around and flipped them for a tidy 10% to 20% profit.

It’s pretty low, but then again, kind of savvy.

#25 Big Dipper on 02.19.16 at 7:14 pm

“no dead cadavers in the basement or attic”

————————————

What about live cadavers? Are you discriminating against live cadavers?

Sorry…

#26 Link on 02.19.16 at 7:14 pm

Scammers. Unfortunately their victims aren’t aware of it

PS … #1

#27 Signal on 02.19.16 at 7:16 pm

Comments, anyone?

#28 paul a on 02.19.16 at 7:17 pm

interesting story sounds like a classic case of ricers with a marketing angle ….

#29 Ray Skunk on 02.19.16 at 7:17 pm

The only victims here are the Ontario taxpayer, paying for Al’s no-doubt-bloated salary at the dead dog known as MaRS. What’s he advising them on, how to waste even more money?

Naturally the Red Star will be quick to promote and glorify one of the ruling party’s Comrades.

#30 Goldie on 02.19.16 at 7:19 pm

“…they’ve hand delivered 1,000 custom-crafted postcards…”

*snicker*

#31 Rick on 02.19.16 at 7:27 pm

hand delivered…not their hands:)

#32 Goofy 2 Shoes on 02.19.16 at 7:28 pm

#21 Will

And just a few minutes ago I have RBC calling me to book an appointment for a ‘financial review’. Asking what kind of review, the rep said they noted I qualified for a LOC. Worse than used car salesmen at that crappy corner establishment.

I agree with you, it’s all vulgar.

#33 Smartalox on 02.19.16 at 7:30 pm

DELETED

#34 Smoking Man on 02.19.16 at 7:33 pm

Garth remember that shack in Vancouver listed for 2.3 Million you talked about last week.

Just sold for 2.5 Million. Ouch….

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-19/remember-vancouver-teardown-shack-it-just-sold-25-million-80000-over-asking

Bottom line is this, Canadians have a problem, they hate to pay rent to enrich others, even to the point of it not making any economic sense.

Even son number 1 included, no matter what I say to him. And he don’t have an extortionist wife anymore pushing him in this direction.

“I’m an executive now, Number one sales rep in North America 3 months in a row, I need a house” He said.

“I agree, so Transfer to Charlotte, get paid in USD, buy a house, and find a good old fashion southern girl to make babes with. Only thing left for you here is Man hating bat shit crazy woman, high prices and crazy taxes on people that make your kind of loot.” I Said.

He’s thinking about it.

#35 Lead Paint on 02.19.16 at 7:36 pm

Strange…. my wife is pregnant and we rent. Perhaps we need to give them a lesson?

#36 Ashley Khadir on 02.19.16 at 7:37 pm

Damn, those two are ugly as sin in real life.

#37 joe on 02.19.16 at 7:38 pm

Could someone please forecast the CAD direction in next month or so please? I have few thousand USD to bring in and I m wondering if it will go back down to $1.45 against USD or I should cash in now at $1.35 (USDCAD).
thanks very much

#38 David on 02.19.16 at 7:38 pm

Funny that he works at the real estate farce that is MaRS.

#39 Paully on 02.19.16 at 7:38 pm

I have the original post-card, suitable for framing!

If they really want to start a family, rather than trying to buy a house for somewhat less than market value, maybe they should make a date and bring along some Jose Cuervo…

#40 Goofy 2 Shoes on 02.19.16 at 7:39 pm

#6 Smartalox

They look like they are married… at least from what’s posted on his fully public facebook page.

#41 Daisy Mae on 02.19.16 at 7:45 pm

#21: “It’s all so vulgar. I can’t stand it.”

****************

Todays version of the ‘snake oil salesmen’ of days past. Some things never change….buyer beware.

#42 TurnerNation on 02.19.16 at 7:52 pm

Another greenwashing scam. Still don’t believe the elites’ goal is robbing us blind? They use hobby horse endless and un-measureable goals like ‘anti terrorism measures’, ‘ending war’, ‘climate change’.
If we balk another scary made-for-TV event is unleashed until we are begging.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/n-s-steel-manufacturing-plant-to-close-after-56m-investment-1.2784811

TRENTON, N.S. — A steel manufacturing facility in northeastern Nova Scotia that received $56.3 million in provincial money is shutting down, ending an ambitious plan to create hundreds of jobs in the wind energy sector

The company has indicated it has no customer orders, is operating in a maintenance mode with 19 employees and is paying about $400,000 a month to stay open.

The previous NDP government announced in 2010 it had taken a 49 per cent equity stake in the firm, committed $60 million to the manufacturing plant and predicted 500 jobs would be created within three years.

#43 Entrepreneur on 02.19.16 at 7:54 pm

Or is that a cover-up.

Still would like the truth, the real truth, and only the truth.

By now, words do not cut it anymore, need detail investigations. Enough talk, get to the bottom of it.

A leader is for everyone and the truth has to be found and dealt with accordingly, loss of equity or not.

OMG

#44 Ronaldo on 02.19.16 at 7:57 pm

#22 Hurtin’ Albertan on 02.19.16 at 7:06 pm

”Oil and the loonie are still in the toilet. Time to buy gold ETFs?

Miners or bullion?”
———————————————————

A bit late. The party is half over. September was the time to get in.

#24 Cici

”I bet they picked up at least a handful of houses last spring using Allan’s .com$$, then turned around and flipped them for a tidy 10% to 20% profit.

It’s pretty low, but then again, kind of savvy.”
————————————————————

This stunt was common in the early 70’s housing bubble.

#45 Fed-up on 02.19.16 at 7:58 pm

“For example, the average detached home in epicentre of 416, at $1,061,789, costs almost exactly what it did last spring.”

Nothing to feel good about. Still obscenely overpriced and more than double from a mere 8 years ago. It would have to correct by 40-50% to make any sense.

#46 Shawn on 02.19.16 at 8:14 pm

Steel Manufacturing in Nova Scotia, you say?

Turner Nation

A steel manufacturing facility in northeastern Nova Scotia that received $56.3 million in provincial money is shutting down, ending an ambitious plan to create hundreds of jobs in the wind energy sector

****************************************
Big surprise? Steel manufacturing in Cape Breton has been dead for decades.

Sydney Nova Scotia had a big old steel plant with blast furnaces. When that became obsolete or uneconomic they put in an electric arc furnace to melt scrap steel – forgetting that there was no scrap around to melt. That closed I think some decades ago now. But cleaning up the Sydney Tar ponds provided work for some years.

Trenton some decades ago had a rail car manufacturing operation. I believe that has been gone for decades.

Both of these operations received tons of government money before finally shutting down.

So they tried again?

#47 Pete on 02.19.16 at 8:14 pm

Capitalism, Canadian style.
They found a niche, and they exploited it.
Sleazy, but brilliant.

#48 GTA girl on 02.19.16 at 8:14 pm

A TO developer has his house for sale in Bayview/S.of 401, N of Elgin. A McMansion w/a gate surrounded by ranch homes. He bought it freshly built from a Post Road realtor for $5.2. Now, a few years later, he’s got it up for sale at…..just under $10mil. Been on the market for 4 mos…has a fancy video too.

Except for Conrad Blacks house on acreage over on Post, the developers house is the 2nd most expensive home in the entire area. Doesn’t explain why his neighbor is selling his slightly older home for $3mil (still hasn’t sold either).

When asked why he is keeping the price so high he claims to be waiting for rich Chinese or Iranians…and, “They’d be lucky to live in a house I lived in!”

Seems the RE bubble has also been pumping some major ego

#49 cto on 02.19.16 at 8:16 pm

just a thought….
I wonder if crea association fees are paying these two to plant a crazy seed in the obsessed???…Just askin???

#50 sockeye sam on 02.19.16 at 8:33 pm

#1 caddywack

I think what he meant to say was,”it’s a TAX haven in a safe financial area”. Soon the lights will all be going off in these buildings because like Denman street no one will be able to pay their outrageous rents.
“Welcome to Vancouver the lights are off and everyone has gone back home to their factories. We’ll send someone around to clean the flyers off the front steps.
What a f$#kin mess.

#51 tundra pete on 02.19.16 at 8:35 pm

UPDATE. The little pup I rescued the other day is doing great. He has a great bill of health, neutered, vaccinated and is still at the shelter but has been adopted and will be going to his forever home in the next few days. Don’t get much more detail because of confidentiality but was great news and made my day!

A little off topic but wanted to share the news. Thanks for the great post Garth. Enjoy your weekend blog dawgs!

#52 will on 02.19.16 at 8:45 pm

#32 Goofy 2 shoes

I used to get more calls like that when I had a landline. Not so much now. But when I did I handled the call this way:

“Yes thank you for calling. I have been expecting your call and I would like you to put me on your Do Not Call List. Thank you.”

#53 For those about to flop... on 02.19.16 at 8:51 pm

#50 tundra pete on 02.19.16 at 8:35 pm
UPDATE. The little pup I rescued the other day is doing great. He has a great bill of health, neutered, vaccinated and is still at the shelter but has been adopted and will be going to his forever home in the next few days. Don’t get much more detail because of confidentiality but was great news and made my day!

////////////////////////////
Your a good man Pete, but next time can you take Mark with you to get neutered as well…

M41BC

#54 WalMark on 02.19.16 at 8:59 pm

found a new nick that I luv. leo ToiletSpray and Trollstoy are good too. will keep those. this is marketing 101. find a belief (young couple priced out by bully bids, foreign owners pushing Canadians out, etc.) and flog it. easy money. society eats it up. no questions.

#55 Joe2.0 on 02.19.16 at 9:02 pm

RE friend of mine wants to start up a fast tracking ESL course targeting Chinese RE investors.
The courses main theme is focused on “communicating with english speaking tenants and CND RE law.

#56 WalMark on 02.19.16 at 9:07 pm

inflation under control everybody

http://www.vancouversun.com/mobile/story.html?id=11730533

#57 eddy on 02.19.16 at 9:23 pm

Need a career?
When I watched this I thought it was a satire, it’s not.
just say no to the military

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20wNxj8UJDc

#58 Smoking Man on 02.19.16 at 9:28 pm

Lately I find myself in a zone of numbness . I’m trying hard to save humanity but have come to the relization that humanity don’t want to be saved. Maybe it’s the February lack of vitamin d

Woman hating men, men hating woman cause they hate them cause they spot danglers.

Left vs right

Old vs young

Fk I’m getting burnt out trying to rationalize this phenomenon

Haven’t write much this week to the deight of James2 and Big Dipper.

Mind you I had the flu . Hight fever.

Hope that’s all it is. I have a few fans on here and I feel presure not to let them down.

At leased if I was a first rate celebrity I could get some slack.

But being a worthless idiot posting drinken rants is not in fashion.

Perhaps I could be an adiance participant in the social on ctv …

Good thing I don’t own a gun. It’s a solo Russian Roulette night to night.

Fk I feel so numb.

#59 AfterTheHouseSold on 02.19.16 at 9:30 pm

Retail sales fell 2.2% in December, the biggest drop since 2008.
New vehicle sales fell 4.1% in December. Expect car sales to be flat this year.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/surprise-uptick-in-inflation-unlikely-to-sway-bank-of-canada-off-course-economists-say

#60 Joe2.0 on 02.19.16 at 9:39 pm

Smoking Man
Are you sure it’s a fever or is your liver sending out smoke signals?

#61 lala on 02.19.16 at 9:41 pm

What our host is saying is:
Allan and Roxy are the winners, adopt kiddos. Google is your friend.

#62 For those about to flop... on 02.19.16 at 9:44 pm

Geez ,if I knew the comments section was going to be this low key on a Friday night I would have posted my my HAM story I told this morning now.
Just like a honeymooner ,I went too hard too early…

M41BC

#63 Josh Bugman on 02.19.16 at 9:45 pm

Trudeau Liberals are convinced that only be destroying Canada will a ‘New Liberal Canada’ emerge.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/environment-minister-pushes-for-carbon-pricing-despite-worries-it-could-kneecap-energy-sector

Given the fact that they’re killing the economy by taxing out industry, we can only imagine that 100% taxation is just around the corner.

Maybe Junior has a new name in mind, something cool, like ‘Phoenix’. It’s Anti Harper.

#64 common sense on 02.19.16 at 9:53 pm

#57 Smokie..

Sad to hear your numb but are you comfortable?
Enjoy this,
https://scontent.fyqr1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/12733981_1037776072949854_4412729255119979842_n.jpg?oh=5992aee70ab4dfb7ba90af2b1575e6a4&oe=576A04C7

#65 A Canadian Abroad on 02.19.16 at 9:53 pm

#37 joe “Could someone please forecast the CAD direction in next month or so please? I have few thousand USD to bring in and I m wondering if it will go back down to $1.45 against USD or I should cash in now at $1.35 (USDCAD).”

I am doing FOREX trading in USD/CAD. Right now it’s very volatile. Short term, you’ll see a resistance level around 1.38, mid-term, 1.43.

Oil and the CAD are linked as is the USD strength index. It’s hard to forecast, but many analysis are bullish on the USD/CAD.

The question you have to ask, are you happy with a 1.37603 exchange it is currently at?

*The above is not trading advice and should not be taken as such. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

#66 Sebee on 02.19.16 at 9:54 pm

V-neck as T-shirt? What’s worse hipsters or boomers?

#67 Smoking Man on 02.19.16 at 9:55 pm

Even Nectonites suffer bouts of depression, no way I’m blaming the booze in-spite of scholars pounding their chests, the science is settled.

I’m going with the flu.

Three things left on my bucket list.

1) walking into the cheetahs strip club in Vegas, it’s a big scene in my book but I’ve never been in, how can I write about something I’ve never experienced. On the last four attempts, I got as far as the door. Then chickened out, don’t want to be judged as the old perverted bastard. Fortunately my wife, the major Gamblaholic has said, you take me to Vegas again , I’ll go in with you. I booked within 2 minutes of that offer.

2) The line on Groom lake road, area 51, you cross it, 600 dollar fine and the possibility snipers will take you you out. April 16 to 24 Cameldudes, I’m coming.

3) Publish the book, I know GF fans will make it a best seller on day one, I will become famous. That scares the shit out of me. I’m already sort of rich. But fame that a scary prospect to a logical mind.

I need a blog dog name to put as the author, no god damn why my real name is getting tagged.

Book is getting close to almost finished.

#68 Shawn on 02.19.16 at 9:57 pm

Were December Retail Sales Up or Down?

#58 AfterTheHouseSold on 02.19.16 at 9:30 pm said:

Retail sales fell 2.2% in December, the biggest drop since 2008.
New vehicle sales fell 4.1% in December. Expect car sales to be flat this year.

**********************************
And that is the way Statistics Canada chose to spin the story.

But those were the “seasonally adjusted” changed versus November. And seasonally adjusting anything is just an estimate.

Here is a different “spin” on the same report

Canadian retail Sales were UP 2.6% in December ’15 versus December of ’14 (Nothing to write home about but not terrible).

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/160219/t001b-eng.htm

New auto sales were UP 8.9% year over year and used car sales were UP 19.2%. (So good times for auto dealers)

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/160219/t002b-eng.htm

So were the December retail sales figures good or bad? Depends how you want to spin it. Are you looking to confirm gloom, you can. To confirm things are pretty good, you can do that too.

Are you looking to generate headlines? Well then focus on the dip versus November.

#69 Shawn on 02.19.16 at 10:01 pm

Conrad Black’s House…

I think $10 million was mentioned. Looks like a heck of a bargain actually. Certainly compared to Vancouver prices. Was it priced low to generate above asking bids?

Going to auction I think but has a reserve bid.

#70 Lobster Man on 02.19.16 at 10:03 pm

#45 Shawn on 02.19.2016 at 8:14 pm

Ah, yes! That was SYSCO. And along with DEVCO, millions and millions were spent by the Fed and Province. But in the end we ended up with nothing, except being entertained by a game of political football, stretching over decades.

#71 Spaccone on 02.19.16 at 10:04 pm

If that’s what someone of his calibre can land then the average guy is absolutely screwed.

#72 UncleFester on 02.19.16 at 10:05 pm

Eeeeeeeeek……. Photoshop and saturation does miracles.

#73 Smoking Man on 02.19.16 at 10:07 pm

#63 common sense on 02.19.16 at 9:53 pm
#57 Smokie..

Sad to hear your numb but are you comfortable?
Enjoy this,
https://scontent.fyqr1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/12733981_1037776072949854_4412729255119979842_n.jpg?oh=5992aee70ab4dfb7ba90af2b1575e6a4&oe=576A04C7

…..

Perfect

#74 Bottoms_Up on 02.19.16 at 10:10 pm

#221 Nass on 02.19.16 at 5:00 pm
———————————-
CPI doesn’t factor in cost to buy a home, and regarding food, it doesn’t compare identical goods every time (which it should) but rather looks at whether consumers can substitute item B in place of item A, where item B might be of similar or lessor quality but cheaper, thus keeping the CPI suppressed.

#75 Bottoms_Up on 02.19.16 at 10:21 pm

#32 Goofy 2 Shoes on 02.19.16 at 7:28 pm
——————————-
If you qualify for a LOC, they can email the doc to you, you sign it (decline the insurance), and presto, done. No need to visit the branch other then perhaps to hand in the form.

#76 Smoking Man on 02.19.16 at 10:23 pm

#59 Joe2.0 on 02.19.16 at 9:39 pm
Smoking Man
Are you sure it’s a fever or is your liver sending out smoke signals?
…………

Alien DNA, The morning wee wee. As clear as a whole food urbanite.

Yellow not in my DNA

#77 Vers on 02.19.16 at 10:27 pm

Bot not ethics.

#78 Scully on 02.19.16 at 10:36 pm

Hey smokey, take care of that flu it’s going around. It’s not affecting your powers of observation though. I see a definite fracturing in herd as well. I think it could be a side effect of the US political (bowel) movement brought to you by 24/7 MSM and our obsession with social media (we’ve become passive aggressive bullies under the guise of PC comments) or the divide between rich and poor or a combination, who knows…but it’s there. Please continue to post here. As a blog bitch I find your undeleted comments refreshing from all the PC bullshit out there.

#79 Shawn on 02.19.16 at 10:42 pm

Cape Breton Follies

#69 Lobster Man on 02.19.16 at 10:03 pm
#45 Shawn on 02.19.2016 at 8:14 pm

Ah, yes! That was SYSCO. And along with DEVCO, millions and millions were spent by the Fed and Province. But in the end we ended up with nothing, except being entertained by a game of political football, stretching over decades.

***********************************
Indeed so, my own grand fathers both worked in the coal pits prior to DEVCO back when it was actually profitable to mine coal in Cape Breton.

I hear they are finally opening the DONKIN mine. Just in time for extra low coal prices. oops.

One thing that bothers me, Cape Breton has some economic coal that can be strip Mined. (Or at least it was economic some years ago) But residents of Boulandarie (spelling?) island refused and years ago so did residents of Gardiner Mines (circa 1990). But they don’t mind Alberta doing strip coal mining (which they do for coal fired power plants) and sending over some money. Quebec I believe banned natural gas fracking as did New Brunswick. Please Alberta, you do this and send over money.

I am a Canadian citizen and don’t consider myself to be a “citizen” of any province, just a resident. I believe in equalization and think it somewhat unfair that under the constitution the provinces (even those carved out of the North West Territories formally owned by the original four provinces) get to own the resources. But in any case each province has to try to help itself before begging for equalization.

#80 Shawn on 02.19.16 at 10:47 pm

CPI Infaltion

#73 Bottoms_Up on 02.19.16 at 10:10 pm
#221 Nass on 02.19.16 at 5:00 pm
———————————-
CPI doesn’t factor in cost to buy a home,

******************************************
Yeah, but the “cost” to buy a house is driven in good measure by interest rates and NOT just the price and yes CPI has a component for annual housing costs in that sense.

I said earlier that people believe what they want to believe. If the reported CPI does not conform to their own belief they say it is wrong or distorted.

People seldom let facts or evidence get in the way of what they wish to believe. Emotion and dogma trump logic most every time.

#81 Rural Rick on 02.19.16 at 11:28 pm

SM how about Nick Patch?

#82 koenig on 02.19.16 at 11:35 pm

I’ve already made this comment, but it fits better here.

Now if you check the MLS for Vancouver, in all areas of the lower mainland, its difficult to find a house listed for under one million. Only under are very crappy and in bad areas. Now asks in Langley, Aldergrove and Abbotsford are on the rise. Now if the banks keep lending and doing for mostly over a million, to keep it affordable, borrowing a million today will cost the same as borrowing $800k 3 months ago.

Word travels fast, once the people in Toronto here how cheap Vancouverites are borrowing a million, they’ll all want to refinance. Since houses are now speculative invests, not only will I refinance, I’ll tap some of that equity that makes us all rich! Suddenly Torontonians discover their house hasn’t risen in value or if it has not enough to satisfy.

I know a guy who bought a collector car last year. Over the last six months, some collector cars have risen in value and this model has been on a real tear. They decided to sell it at a big collector car auction in the states. They paid $60k CDN for the thing and netted $140k U.S, at auction. That’s $100k profit in a year, not bad. Thing is they are very disappointed, they thought it would do $200k U.S.

When people see houses as an investment, with grand slam returns and don’t get it. Things start to fall apart. Vancouverites need a reality check. Especially in the condo and townhouse market. They never stay up long term.

#83 A belieber on 02.19.16 at 11:37 pm

dumb sh-t godth says: (not quite verbatim. but close)

https://imgflip.com/i/zhpyl

#84 drydock on 02.19.16 at 11:40 pm

Smoking Man on 02.19.16 at 9:28 pm

Lately I find myself in a zone of numbness . I’m trying hard to save humanity but have come to the relization that humanity don’t want to be saved. Maybe it’s the February lack of vitamin d

Woman hating men, men hating woman cause they hate them cause they spot danglers.

Left vs right

Old vs young

Fk I’m getting burnt out trying to rationalize this phenomenon

Haven’t write much this week to the deight of James2 and Big Dipper.

Mind you I had the flu . Hight fever.

Hope that’s all it is. I have a few fans on here and I feel presure not to let them down.

At leased if I was a first rate celebrity I could get some slack.

But being a worthless idiot posting drinken rants is not in fashion.

Perhaps I could be an adiance participant in the social on ctv …

Good thing I don’t own a gun. It’s a solo Russian Roulette night to night.

Fk I feel so numb.

0101010101010101010101010101010101010101010101

Screw humanity,
Present version of humanity spells pity pitty,damn dam,loser looser.
It makes me weep.
Cull coming.
We turned cheep plentiful oil into 7 billion people on planet capable of supporting 1 billion.
Now time to pay piper.
Buy lead bullion.
Have nice weekend.

#85 drydock on 02.19.16 at 11:43 pm

Oh no spelt cheap cheep.
It’s all over.

#86 future Expatriate on 02.19.16 at 11:50 pm

There’s money in non-sex prostitution.

Who knew?

#87 A belieber on 02.20.16 at 12:01 am

I think this one is my favourite.

Dumb sh-t godth says. Verbatim.

https://imgflip.com/i/zhtyl

#88 RimJabba on 02.20.16 at 12:42 am

Poor babies, mommie and daddy got them expensive degrees, now they want a house to fill with useless crap from Ikea, working their useless jobs that produce no real value for society. Boo hoo.

They could move 2 hours outside the city and have a farm, with 100 acres easy. But wait, their weak, limp Toronto wrists can’t handle real work.

I looked at the business the MBA is trying to start, it’s a series of middleman website businesses that are deep in the red and produce no real value. They are trying to be the Uber of senior care, not exactly cutting edge.

Don’t even get me started on the urban-planner girl, I work with some, they are the most entitled communists I’ve met. They are so communist they make chairman Mao look bad.

For professionals, they aren’t very good at solving problems. But they sure are good at whining.

#89 AisA on 02.20.16 at 12:42 am

I think it’s time for my quarterly reminder that there is no way in hades this ends with a mythical soft landing. Prices have crashed into the sky, oh the oxymoron. There is only one direction left to hurtle towards.

#90 Joe2.0 on 02.20.16 at 12:55 am

75 Smoking Man
Try 5000 mg vitamin C that will bring you back to earth.

#91 zudnic on 02.20.16 at 1:08 am

I don’t believe in equalization, especially when two provinces alone decide our government. As a Canadian, I’m free to live in any province. Giving billions of tax dollars to keep Quebec in the country, is a waste of my money. If they don’t like Canada leave. If your province is suffering economically, either suck it up or move to a more successful one. Equalization is governmental socialism, a tool for friendly dictators like the moron Trudeau to stay in power. Maybe we can sell Ontario and Quebec to America and the west can keep its money! Even Clark can manage our economy better then the drama teacher!

A friend of mine was a very successful business man. He was working as a welder just after the war. As in WWII. European immigrants, flooding into Canada. Most wanting to learn how to drive. My friend started a driving school, he had an advantage, he could speak Italian. Soon his students started asking him where to buy cars. My friend then began selling cars in little Italy in Toronto. Being mostly Europeans in that neighborhood, they all wanted Italian cars. Since this was back in the 1950’s, European cars, well not many used ones around. Every weekend, my friend would load his wife and young kids into a car and off to the states they’d go. They would go to people, he’d pretend to be a family guy looking for a cheap family car for transportation. It worked, he got the cars cheap. Since he was the only one selling used European cars in Canada, he owned the market. A few years later, those poor immigrants, now had money, they wanted better European cars, Ferrari’s, Lamborghini’s and even Rolls Royce’s. My friend made another fortune supplying these cars. Most of the big players in the car business today in Toronto, got their start working for my friend. By the 1990’s, he was basically retired. Now the other thing most people don’t know and you wouldn’t think driving by his car lot, he was a very rich man! See he also realised the immigrants he dealt with, most of them rented their house.

Thus, my friend began buying up houses with his car lot profits. A house came on the market in the little Italy neighborhood, he bought it. He also bought buildings, the immigrants also opened businesses and rented their location. In the 70’s, he’d have a mechanic doing some work on his car, the mechanic wanted to open a shop, my friend would buy a building and then rent them space. My friend was bringing in over a million dollars a year in rent. Just imagine the cost of houses in 1950’s Toronto and what those houses are worth now. But my friend is an investor in real estate, not a buyer and seller. My friend said houses, apartments, condo’s, townhomes, warehouses, go up and down. You know many houses you’d have to sell to make over a million a year after taxes, a lot. You also lose money. Sometimes there is no buyers. But there is always renters. He said if he cashed out, what would I do with all that money? He lived in the same house he bought in the 1960’s and its paid for. Has lots of cars, 15 to 20 Rolls Royce’s. It would earn less return earning interest from the bank.

That’s real estate investment, not buy, hold, hope to sell for a profit!

#92 Heisenberg on 02.20.16 at 1:34 am

I bet that couple aren’t even looking at buying a house. They look like the type that are looking to get invited into people’s houses and then they’re going to pull out the Amway and try to sell you on a pyramid “financial freedom” scheme that involves selling crap to your friends who will never respect you again.
Their photo is embellished, their resumes are embellished, everything about them is insincere.

#93 Lobster Man on 02.20.16 at 2:03 am

#78 Shawn on 02.19.16 at 10:42 pm

Cape Breton Follies…..

Are the major employers in the Windsor/Oshawa area following the footsteps of the Cape Breton industries of the past?
They appeared to be playing out in the same way, with a time delay of more than half a centaury. I hope I am wrong. Otherwise, we will be talking about huge bailout money, in the years to come.

#94 Josh Bugman on 02.20.16 at 2:07 am

Proof that the ‘Poloz Plan’ is not only wrong, but it is a total starvation inducing jobs killer.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/canadians-cut-back-on-spending-as-prices-rise

The only guys getting a ‘bang for their buck’ are the few extra tourists Poloz has managed to entice to watch our titty shows that employ TFW Lithuanian girls. What crap. Between Trudeau Liberals and Poloz we ar ein for a very rough ride. This isn’t election talk, I’m just pasting the facts.

#95 pwn3d on 02.20.16 at 2:07 am

You may have finally jumped the shark Garth, your post today sounded like it was penned by Mark. If you honestly think because January prices were the same as last spring the market has leveled off, you truly have no idea how the GTA market works.

I can guarantee you that Feb will be higher than Jan, and higher than last Feb. The same will happen in March, then April, then May. June will probably then go down, but still higher than last year. Same for July, and August. And so on. When will it end? Who knows, but I know when it won’t end and that is any time in the next few months.

#96 family beagle on 02.20.16 at 2:26 am

#37 joe “Could someone please forecast the CAD direction in next month or so please? I have few thousand USD to bring in and I m wondering if it will go back down to $1.45 against USD or I should cash in now at $1.35 (USDCAD).”

….

Here’s what RBC CM sent out in an email Feb 03…
Q1 – 1.45
Q2 – 1.40
Q3 – 1.36
Q4 – 1.33

#97 M on 02.20.16 at 2:39 am

so …Gartho baby… no negative rates huh..?

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/canada-could-adopt-negative-interest-rates-within-the-next-two-years-citi-says

…you are so sweet :)

#98 Truth hurts.. on 02.20.16 at 3:03 am

Super detective work Garth & meaningful stats!

Would love to read a similar blog about YVR.

The truth shall set us free and boy, did you deliver today.

#99 My dog has issues on 02.20.16 at 3:28 am

Sucks to live in the GTA or Van where you can’t even afford a place. I’m humming and hawing about buying a house here in Sask, the market seems to be on the decline. $250,000 can buy a somewhat decent place, that’s about 2.5 times my yearly income. Are prices going to keep falling?

#100 My dog has issues on 02.20.16 at 3:53 am

What are peoples opinions on the Canadian banks? Earnings are starting next week

#101 Old Man Too on 02.20.16 at 3:53 am

#78 Shawn
Give us back our $200 Billion, then go suck an egg!
http://edmontonjournal.com/opinion/columnists/gary-lamphier-how-much-money-has-flowed-out-of-alberta-to-ottawa-a-lot

#102 Babbler on 02.20.16 at 4:06 am

I know a fellow who brags about how much money he’s made in the last 10 years in TO RE. That’s how long he’s been in Canada, having immigrated from the middle east. His net worth, including equity, is now north of $900K and he credits RE for it all. His job pays less than $60K. What’s my point? Well, no matter how much you malign Realtors and their questionable marketeering methods, TO RE has been an incredibly wise and lucrative proposition. The fellow in question here is loudly scornful of Canadians that rent. He doesn’t understand why they would be paying someone else’s mortgage. This is the perception that most people have and I find it increasingly difficult to argue against. Especially considering what’s happened these last 8 years.

#103 Chaz Cramer on 02.20.16 at 4:38 am

SCAM ALERT

Al & Rox are flippers or didn’t anyone get this trick? They want a better deal than they can get through and agency by purchasing below average cost plus commission price, seriously one of the oldest in the book.

My pal Tom was at this years ago in Vanc, parked his vette out of site and knocked on doors telling people he was a carpenter with a family and he was “just trying to find a home for his family”.

Check this couples past record and find that ‘assignment’ is written all over their ‘family home buy”. Quite pukey really, and if the blog dogs didn’t catch on, then fear for the old ladies and elderly couples who’ve been sucked in.

#104 Hope & Change (Canada) on 02.20.16 at 6:33 am

I am a Canadian citizen and don’t consider myself to be a “citizen” of any province, just a resident. I believe in equalization and think it somewhat unfair that under the constitution the provinces (even those carved out of the North West Territories formally owned by the original four provinces) get to own the resources. But in any case each province has to try to help itself before begging for equalization.

In 2009, Albertans paid 36B in federal income taxes on a population of about 3.5M people.

The feds, spend 20B in Alberta that same year. For a deficit of 16B$. About half the size of the provincial budget of 33B$ left Alberta, went out into the Federal black hole never to be seen again.

Oh but wait, I think I found it. That same year, Quebecers paid 39B$ in federal income taxes (on a population double that of Alberta) . The feds spend 54B$ in Quebec that same year. For a profit of 15B$.

So yes, Alberta is a rich province and it DOES help itself because it has DEVELOPED it’s resources and has put many people to work at much HIGHER wages, unlike other whinny, ungrateful provinces.

#105 Ronaldo on 02.20.16 at 7:23 am

#97 My dog has issues on 02.20.16 at 3:28 am

”Sucks to live in the GTA or Van where you can’t even afford a place. I’m humming and hawing about buying a house here in Sask, the market seems to be on the decline. $250,000 can buy a somewhat decent place, that’s about 2.5 times my yearly income. Are prices going to keep falling?”

Given the low interest rates and the 2.5 times your income, and if you plan to be in the place for a long time, does it really matter if the prices falls a bit further? I doubt that a drop in Van and To would have any affect on that already obviously low price. Lock in at these low interest rates and I’ll bet that owning in this case is lower than renting.

#106 Ronaldo on 02.20.16 at 7:28 am

#98 My dog has issues on 02.20.16 at 3:53 am

”What are peoples opinions on the Canadian banks? Earnings are starting next week”

Buy XFN and forget about it. Banks are already down 20% or more from their highs. Can’t win um, buy um.

#107 Saint Herb on 02.20.16 at 7:33 am

Prices are crazy. House across the street sold last summer for $850,000, neighbour just sold yesterday for $1.1mil and that was $20,000 over asking. These are builder homes in the farther suburbs of the GTA with very few upgrades on 40ft lots. Nothing special in my book.

Sadly, I rent my house and get reminded often how happy my landlord must be. Worst part is that my portfolio is down 6 figures and definitely not paying the rent as planned.

Unless something drastic changes soon, I may have to admit that the contrarian move of selling my home and rental house 3 years ago, investing the money, and renting may have backfired.

I come here to be reminded why I did it, but lately it’s been harder and harder to believe.

If this plan really does work, you need the patients of a saint to see it through.

#108 Ronaldo on 02.20.16 at 7:38 am

#101 Chaz Cramer

”Check this couples past record and find that ‘assignment’ is written all over their ‘family home buy”. Quite pukey really, and if the blog dogs didn’t catch on, then fear for the old ladies and elderly couples who’ve been sucked in.”

If these two are scammers, I hope this reveals them for what they are and the next headlines in the paper represent that. Have no use for people like that. Bottom feeding scum suckers.

#109 earthboundmisfit on 02.20.16 at 7:59 am

@50 tundra pete
Good on ya’ mate. Thanks for caring. We adopted a couple of rescue kittens a few weeks ago. Absolute riot, especially with a laser pointer.

#110 davikk on 02.20.16 at 8:02 am

Forget Deflation. Stagflation Arrives in Canada. Worst Plunge in Retail Sales since 2008 as Inflation Whacks Consumers.

http://investmentwatchblog.com/forget-deflation-stagflation-arrives-in-canada-worst-plunge-in-retail-sales-since-2008-as-inflation-whacks-consumers/

#111 Bottoms_Up on 02.20.16 at 8:32 am

#79 Shawn on 02.19.16 at 10:47 pm
———————————-
You think it makes sense CPI accounts for the percent increase in controlled rental cost, but does not factor in a family might now make 30 years of payments to buy a house where it use to take only 10 or 15?

In a rapidly rising housing market like we’ve experienced in the past 15 years, this way of calculation CPI is broken. Sure it worked for decades when housing was flat.

#112 Bottoms_Up on 02.20.16 at 8:35 am

#88 Joe2.0 on 02.20.16 at 12:55 am
————————-
Actually vitamin D is the new vitamin C, it can help activate the immune system. Smokie was on to something.

#113 Ontario's Left Coast on 02.20.16 at 8:52 am

#66 Smoking Man on 02.19.16 at 9:55 pm

I need a blog dog name to put as the author, no god damn why my real name is getting tagged.

Smokey, I give you permission to publish under my real name, which is Turd Ferguson.

#114 James on 02.20.16 at 8:55 am

Love your blog Garth – we need leaders like you in office!

#115 Truther on 02.20.16 at 9:11 am

This Allan and Roxy Fisch thing sounds suspicious based on his past/present earnings. If anyone has easy access to a title search, I’d love to know if they have secretly been flipping houses over the last year or so.

#116 Fine Wild Roatsed Gonads on 02.20.16 at 9:23 am

Be careful of rum drinking monkeys in brazil !

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/world/knife-wielding-monkey-terrorizes-men-at-brazilian-bar-after-guzzling-some-rum

#117 roxyrollers on 02.20.16 at 9:41 am

I once knew a gal named Roxy….she was a fine dancer…..especially if there was a brass pole in the room…

#118 MF on 02.20.16 at 9:55 am

#101 Babbler on 02.20.16 at 4:06 am

Just luck and nothing else. Central bankers have zero idea what to do next and are In a corner. This dude Wasn’t here for the last downturn and won’t see the next one coming. That’s what always happens wth those people. Everyone over exaggerates their gains in RE and people like that inevitably get caught when they overleverage themselves one last time.

MF

#119 Mark on 02.20.16 at 9:56 am

“In a rapidly rising housing market like we’ve experienced in the past 15 years, this way of calculation CPI is broken. Sure it worked for decades when housing was flat.”

CPI is calculated with an input called “owners equivalent rent” (OER). Basically OER is a calculation of the market equivalent rent that a consumer of residential real estate will “pay” if they were to rent an equivalent property.

The fact that it hasn’t risen much is a testament to the relative long-term inflation tracking stability of real estate rents. What you’re seeing, with inflated housing prices, is not a reflection of some sort of physical shortage of supply, but rather, a dramatic change to the sort of discount rates that are used by investors in housing to evaluate the value of future cashflows arising from ownership.

The presence of cheap debt financing features prominently, but also, there is a significantly diminished expectation for return on equity amongst owners of residential RE.

Garth has told everyone how to avoid this dramatic escalation of house prices experienced over the past decade or two — simply rent, and invest one’s incremental savings in a balanced portfolio.

your post today sounded like it was penned by Mark.

#120 Mark on 02.20.16 at 9:58 am

your post today sounded like it was penned by Mark.

Lol. I laughed, but seriously, nope. But the facts of Toronto RE (and largely the same replicated in Vancouver) do speak for themselves if one spends a little bit of time digging beneath the Realtor propaganda.

#121 MF on 02.20.16 at 10:02 am

#106 Saint Herb on 02.20.16 at 7:33 am

I feel your pain. Investing hasn’t rewarded me anything either, and it’s hard to continue to argue its merits. I’m down thousands too. I guess we just to accept we took risk and ended up losing this time. Take comfort in knowing that investments under water are easier to reverse than being stuck in an underwater mortgage.

MF

#122 Godth on 02.20.16 at 10:03 am

hahaha, keep going and prove me correct. I bet you get lots of likes on facebook.
http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2014/10/adventures-in-flatland.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2YllipGl2Is

#123 Hot Albertan Money on 02.20.16 at 10:04 am

So these people are wasting time handing out postcards all over Toronto instead of browsing MLS and working with a realtor? What’s the catch here? Why aren’t they doing what 1000’s of other do on a regular basis?

Nothing more than narcissistic snowflakes

#124 Julia on 02.20.16 at 10:06 am

Justin is knocking it out of the park!

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/02/19/forum-research-poll-liberals-would-win-70-of-seats-in-election-today.html

Anyone who has voted themselves conservative should be looking in the mirror to see why this has happened.

You just cannot enrich the 1% at the detriment of everyone else for so long and not expect backlash like this.

This is generational. I don’t see conservatism raising its ugly head to govern in this country in any meaningful way until most of the readers of this blog are long dead.

The Libs have been in office for 120 days, have delivered no budget, and the economy’s deteriorated considerably since. Don’t get too preachy yet. — Garth

#125 MF on 02.20.16 at 10:08 am

British referendum asking whether to stay in the EU or not set for June.

Let’s hope they do the right thing and leave. No point in staying in that sinking ship and epic failure. If Britain exits it’s going to set precedent for other countries to do the same.

MF

#126 broader mind on 02.20.16 at 10:28 am

Anybody want to guess the value of the list generated by Allan and Roxy’s adscam to the listing agent that hired them.

#127 Siva on 02.20.16 at 10:30 am

//#101 Babbler on 02.20.16 at 4:06 am
I know a fellow who brags about how much money he’s made in the last 10 years in TO RE. That’s how long he’s been in Canada, having immigrated from the middle east. His net worth, including equity, is now north of $900K and he credits RE for it all. His job pays less than $60K. What’s my point? Well, no matter how much you malign Realtors and their questionable marketeering methods, TO RE has been an incredibly wise and lucrative proposition. The fellow in question here is loudly scornful of Canadians that rent. He doesn’t understand why they would be paying someone else’s mortgage. This is the perception that most people have and I find it increasingly difficult to argue against. Especially considering what’s happened these last 8 years.//

Indian Motel Owners Association in the US were bragging their net was worth north of $100 billion, yes billion. Then 2008 happened and lot of them filed for bankruptcy. Those who managed to stay afloat saw their net worth evaporate by 2/3rd. Then forced to spend more on their properties – to renovate and modernize to be competitive. This is the struggle owners of income generating commercial properties are going through. God save those that make $60k but are holding RE north of $900k. They have no idea what they are doing. Ignorance is bliss only until reality blows up in the face.

I know a famous heart surgeon who invested a million dollars in L.A. RE during boom times and lost it all. He was so distressed he made a terrible mistake during a routine surgery and the patient died. The deceased patient’s family sued the doctor and the hospital and won the case. Doctor was stripped off his license as a surgeon and suspended from practicing medicine altogether for five years. When his suspension ended his medical malpractice insurance was so astronomical it made no economic sense for him to practice medicine. When he was flying high he built the largest house in his town and during bad times he couldn’t sell it as no one can afford to buy it. To make matters worse his wife divorced him during the turmoil. RE has destroyed many families.

#128 crossbordershopper on 02.20.16 at 10:30 am

well, houses are sold not bought. unless you were living in a cardboard box under a bridge we all live somewhere currently. like 99.9% of people. So… its marketing, we can all stay where we are. I know people who dont even know their relationship, they live apart, have a child, and live seperately. hook up once and a while and basically live a part. no one really needs to move. its all marketing, but new stuff, change etc, borrow money to do it who cares, just do it. marketing 101. I dont know why people are against realtors so much, stock brokers are the same way, they have to have a story to tell their clients every day, a tip, a change of direction, an idea. just like realtors, or else we would all be like my parents, living in the same house they built and still live in after 50 years. My dad said he is leaving in a box. As it should be. dont buy the hype, but yes people wake up and need to create hype to sell stuff to make money for themselves every day. nothing changes.

#129 MF on 02.20.16 at 10:33 am

#123 Julia on 02.20.16 at 10:06 am

The star: liberal spouting BS agenda. Just like the CBC.

Anyone who reads and believes anything in these publications is a straight up moron (SRS)

MF

#130 Keith in Calgary on 02.20.16 at 10:48 am

The current state of the economy is not a result of the liberal government being elected into power 120 days ago.

The fact that there is no budget yet is also not an issue to me, or I imagine most of their voter base.

More importantly though, should be the approach going forward. It is time to stop subsidizing banks and the RE industry. Bring back “moral hazard”. Let some banks fail and businesses fail. Throw some bankers in jail. Let the RE market find its natural level.

Iceland is doing just fine…….thank you very much.

#131 lawboy on 02.20.16 at 10:52 am

How white of them.

#132 Suckin Lemons on 02.20.16 at 10:54 am

RE: #66 – Smoking Man

How about the following nom de plumes?

Al Cohall
Liv R. Spotz
Tennessee Bourbon

#133 Keith in Calgary on 02.20.16 at 10:58 am

Forgot to add…..

Write off unjust and usurious debts. Default on our bonds. Make our creditors take a huge haircut or give them nothing. Cancel all these stupid trade treaties (NAFTA and TPP, etc) which killed our economic base by shipping jobs overseas and allowing corporations to profit, but the citizens to suffer. Lower taxes by 15% at a minimum.

If North Korea has been around for this long the way they do things, we can certainly be more self sufficient and prosperous without being so extreme. Who cares what the rest of the world does ? Seriously ? The entire financial market is a giant ponzi scheme. It’s time to call it a day.

#134 The American on 02.20.16 at 11:07 am

What an amazing voice greeting Allan has! How pathetic is he (and Rox). So I called his phone number at 11:02 a.m. EST, a reasonable time to call anyone on a Saturday. Instead of instructing the caller to leave a voice mail, he guides the caller to send an email as he states that is the best way to reach him. Seriously? Clearly they’re both scammers. Thanks for exposing them for what they are, Garth. They’re tragic examples of how easy it is to play the real estate marketer scamming game in Canada, and testament to how easy it is to buy anyone’s name (and reputation) by the fraudulently over pumped real estate agents.

#135 For those about to flop... on 02.20.16 at 11:10 am

#123 Julia on 02.20.16 at 10:06 am
Justin is knocking it out of the park!

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/02/19/forum-research-poll-liberals-would-win-70-of-seats-in-election-today.html

Anyone who has voted themselves conservative should be looking in the mirror to see why this has happened.

You just cannot enrich the 1% at the detriment of everyone else for so long and not expect backlash like this.

This is generational. I don’t see conservatism raising its ugly head to govern in this country in any meaningful way until most of the readers of this blog are long dead.

The Libs have been in office for 120 days, have delivered no budget, and the economy’s deteriorated considerably since. Don’t get too preachy yet. — Garth

////////////////////////////////

Darn ,I think I married the wrong woman.
Julia you are impressed very easily, if I take my feet of the coffee table does that make me a good husband?

Message to the Metrosexual Messiah…less waxing ,more action.Either that or pretend your back in drama class and this is the scene where we need a hero and your country needs you.This is an action movie not some cheesy comedy,get in character now…

M41BC

#136 Penny Henny on 02.20.16 at 11:12 am

Simply put, it’s a realtor-fueled myth the country’s biggest real estate market (by a huge margin) is a cauldron of ever-rising prices and dwindling affordability, with the average house coursing higher by double-digit amounts.-GT

??????????????????????????????????????

Penny Henny reporting for duty Garth.
Here in boring Etobicoke, original bungalows in my area are now trading hands in the mid sevens. Two years ago prices were in the mid sixes.
Penny Henny over and out.

#137 Noel D on 02.20.16 at 11:14 am

Here is the problem with averages…my head is in the freezer and my feet in an oven….on average I’m comfortable.

#138 unbalanced on 02.20.16 at 11:26 am

I read this blog daily. I have found a certain contributor’s comments boring,bragging and just down right nauseating. I just scroll past them. This morning I keep reading— get better,get some rest,get well. All I can say is GET LOST !!!!!!

#139 AB Boxster on 02.20.16 at 11:29 am

Garth,

Given the recent volatility of rate reset preferred shares due to GOC rate fluctuations, would you still consider preferred shares to be a portion of a fixed income portion of a balanced portfolio, or would you consider these to be part of the growth part of a portfolio?

Or perhaps they fit somewhere in between?

Thx

Of course preferreds are FI. — Garth

#140 WalMark on 02.20.16 at 11:29 am

allan and roxy’s marketing pulls buyers forward. get over it. at least they know how to get a response from their target market. some ppl can’t even get a job interview.

#141 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.20.16 at 11:33 am

@#124 MF

While a “Brexit” from the EU would be a shock to many in the Economic Union ….I’d say the refugee crisis in the Middle East this Spring and Summer will be the nail in the EU Schengen”experiment’.
A “borderless Europe” has been a disaster for controlling the flow of reugees from the Mediterreanean “have not” countries (Greece, Italy, Spain) to the destinations of choice( Germany, France, England).
Nationalist anti immigrant parties are on the rise in France, Germany, Sweden, Belgium, Greece, Italy, etc.etc.etc.
So much so that several countries are scrambling to reimplement borders and start checking for passports again while other countries issue bus and train tickets to shift the migrant problem from their taxpayers to someone else…..
All while Angela Merkels approval rating plummets from soaring heights to the lowest depths. So goes the Chancellor of Germany with other countries leaders nervously watching her fate………
Nothing focuses a politicians attention like similar politicians’ demise.
Several countries are dreading the reintroduction of a National currency and are toying with the idea of “e” money or a cashless society.

Stay tuned. This summer will be epic on the shores of Europe.
The negative press will play right into the British seperatists’ hands.

#142 Bram on 02.20.16 at 11:33 am

For example, the average detached home in epicentre of 416, at $1,061,789, costs almost exactly what it did last spring.

That is demonstrably not true.
Darn it Garth, did Mark get into your head?

Look at the Teranet HPI for Toronto.
A steep difference between the two springs.

Pre-emptive comments:

(1) No! Sales mix has no influence on Teranet: it resale data only.

(2) No! There is very little lag in the figures, as demonstrated by the fact that the pattern of a flat winter, rise in summer shows clearly through in their graphs, each and every year like clockwork.

Did you get confused with month-over-month data?
Month over month, Toronto is flat.
Year over year, Toronto is up a lot.

Bram

TREB statistics: Average 416 detached May 2015: $1,115,120. Average 416 detached January 2016: $1,061,789. I said the average detached costs about the same as last Spring. I am correct. — Garth

#143 Shawn on 02.20.16 at 11:43 am

EQUALIZATION IS THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT’S BUSINESS NOT ALBERTA’s

#103 Hope & Change (Canada) on 02.20.16 at 6:33 am helpfully points out:

In 2009, Albertans paid 36B in federal income taxes on a population of about 3.5M people.

The feds, spend 20B in Alberta that same year. For a deficit of 16B$. About half the size of the provincial budget of 33B$ left Alberta, went out into the Federal black hole never to be seen again.

***************************************
So, Albertan’s pay more in federal taxes than gets spent back in Alberta. Oh, the humanity!

That is exactly analogous to a multi-millionaire Canadian pointing out that they pay far more in federal taxes than gets spent on them personally.

Without governments (you know providers of useless things like laws to keep us safe and to enforce contracts and police and such) what few people could exist in Canada would live as primitive savages. We ALL owe our incomes and really our very lives to an economic system that happens to include governments as a necessary feature. (Can you think of any prosperous country without a government?)

Paying federal income tax is a small price to pay for being allowed to live as we do.

And there should be no expectation that the federal government must spend your share on you, your town’s share on your town or your province’s share on your province.

Sure if you think federal taxes are too high or spent in the wrong places you have a right to complain. But there never should have been any expectation that all Alberta federal taxes would flow back to Alberta. You have a right to promote that expectation but it simply is not a valid expectation. People can always invent ways to feel aggrieved. Does not mean they are valid.

I am a Canadian citizen who happens to have lived in Alberta for the last 27 years. I feel in no way aggrieved by my situation here or the fact that I pay higher than average federal taxes due to a higher than average income. Nor do I have any particular big issues with where or how the federal government spends the taxes it collects.

I feel privileged to live in a Country and a province that has allowed me and my family to be safe to walk the streets and that has an economic system that rewarded quite well my particular skills and education.

The only thing worse than having to pay a lot of income tax in this country is perhaps getting in a situation where you don’t have to pay income tax due to lack of income.

#144 MF on 02.20.16 at 11:49 am

#135 Penny Henny on 02.20.16 at 11:12 am

Pretty soon those houses are going to be 10 trillion and everyone can go by a yacht, wear Versace/LV, and drive a lambo!!

MF

#145 Penny Henny on 02.20.16 at 11:59 am

Hey Garth, re Toronto prices dropping? Have you been drinking Mark’s kool-aid?

I did not say if they are rising or falling, but rather provided you the latest realtor stats. — Garth

#146 TurnerNation on 02.20.16 at 12:00 pm

Toronto housing market appears in Backwardation: people’s willingness to pay way more for delivery today, versus what a house should be worth 5 years down the road accounting for carrying costs.

Just to Get into the market (25 years as working slaves to banks, insurance companies, taxation).

Still thinking this will be Year of the TSX. For schlock pickers I like Air Canada, Westjet and TCK.B to accumulate on dips for a 3-6 month trade.
Dip the buys. Share the buybacks.

#147 boomers suck on 02.20.16 at 12:00 pm

#125 Keith in Calgary on 02.20.16 at 10:58 am
Forgot to add…..

Write off unjust and usurious debts. Default on our bonds. Make our creditors take a huge haircut or give them nothing.
__________________________

I thought pensioners and pension funds hold a lot of our bonds. Read somewhere that only 30% of our bonds are held by foreign investors. Maybe someone can answer this. Who holds Canada’s debt?

If that’s the case. Might explain the ‘we hate keith club’.

I think latin america has experimented with defaulting on debt. Not sure if it has worked out for them.

#148 TurnerNation on 02.20.16 at 12:01 pm

^ Today’s photos. This is why I’ll never do online dating. Hello goodbye.

#149 jess on 02.20.16 at 12:02 pm

advertisement in the spring of 1937 depicted a preferable world, in which a youngster with an icecream cone stood outside a cape cod cottage, waving an arm and shouting “Dad’s got a Job again.”

Houses for All: The Struggle for Social Housing in …
https://books.google.ca/books?isbn=0774804955
Jill Wade – 1994 – ‎History
The Struggle for Social Housing in Vancouver, 1919-50 Jill Wade. Houses. for. All. Houses for All is the story of the struggle for social housing in Vancouver

The Bruce Report and Social Welfare
Leadership in the Politics of Toronto’s
“Slums”, 1934 – 1939

century of social capital
lense of the self me myself and I and the empathy deficit
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xDzAnc3yKMI

————–>to the panopticon?
http://www.moyak.com/papers/michel-foucault-power.html

#150 Herb on 02.20.16 at 12:04 pm

#124 MF,

for once I agree with you. It might be fun to watch a replay of the Inner Six and the Outer Seven. Remember the UK founding the Outer Seven to compete with the Inner Six, then having to admit failure and apply to join the Inner Six after all?

#151 Don Derc on 02.20.16 at 12:38 pm

smoking man – 1) walking into the cheetahs strip club in Vegas, it’s a big scene in my book but I’ve never been in, how can I write about something I’ve never experienced. On the last four attempts, I got as far as the door. Then chickened out, don’t want to be judged as the old perverted bastard. Fortunately my wife, the major Gamblaholic has said, you take me to Vegas again , I’ll go in with you. I booked within 2 minutes of that offer.

Remember SM – if you take a cab to Cheetah’s it’s a $25 USD cover – if you walk in off the street no cover. At least that’s what I overheard on the skytrain today….really.

#152 A belieber on 02.20.16 at 12:39 pm

sh-t godth says:

https://imgflip.com/i/zhs7c

#153 Brian Ripley on 02.20.16 at 1:12 pm

re: #37 joe “Could someone please forecast the CAD direction in next month or so please?

Part of Bob Hoye’s historical investigation of previous bubbles and their inevitable busts is that in a post-bubble contraction the pattern has been that the senior currency (now the USD) becomes chronically strong relative to most commodities most of the time and relative to other currencies most of the time. Bob’s technical analyst Ross Clark currently has a target for the US Dollar Index to test 109 (last seen in 2002).

Trading Economics chart of USD (expand the time frame): http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency

One of the reasons that the “senior” currency becomes strong in a post bubble credit contraction is that a lot of global debt in the boom is created in the senior currency and is repaid in kind, hence the demand now for USD,

Fair warning, I am the promoter of Bob Hoye’s work and the above is not to be considered investment advice. Consult your investment advisor.

#154 TurnerNation on 02.20.16 at 1:12 pm

#90 zudnic excellent story. While no such screaming real estate deals obviously appear here today I believe we now may replicate this performance using ETFs. Financial Engineering.

REITs, other income ETFs, even amped up ones using covered call option income strategy (options – first calls – came into being in 1973).

#155 Godth on 02.20.16 at 1:20 pm

#151 A belieber on 02.20.16 at 12:39 pm

Smile or Die
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PJGMFu74a70

#156 Mark on 02.20.16 at 1:35 pm

“Look at the Teranet HPI for Toronto.
A steep difference between the two springs.”

As explained to you a few times in the past, Teranet is a lagging indicator. Garth, OTOH, cites real-time figures which are not susceptible to the sort of lag that the averaging/low-pass filtered Teranet data is.

You are correct though, Teranet’s methodology does adjust for the sales mix. Its just that the method of adjustment, comparing identical properties over the span of many years, inherently renders the index not that useful for studying real-time pricing changes.

Of course, with Garth’s data, you have to make the implicit assumption that the mix of resale properties listed is similar year over year. May or may not be a reasonable assumption. Any arguments one way or another? Garth, do you happen to have median TREB numbers to match?

#157 Mark on 02.20.16 at 1:44 pm

“One of the reasons that the “senior” currency becomes strong in a post bubble credit contraction is that a lot of global debt in the boom is created in the senior currency and is repaid in kind, hence the demand now for USD,”

True, but if you followed the rest of Bob Hoye’s discussion on the topic, the CAD$ may very well be somewhat of a special case. As he routinely cites gold, along with the USD$ as examples of those ‘senior currencies’.

As gold strengthens in such a scenario, as a ‘senior currency’, the CAD$, which benefits through a higher gold price, may very well come along for the ride. Even when domestic fundamentals don’t otherwise dictate a higher CAD$.

Then Canada has the debt deflation problem in spades on account of the RE bubble and its deflation. Debt deflation being extremely good for a currency. Since Canadian consumers are significantly more indebted than US consumers, especially in real estate, the scope for demand truncation is dramatically greater in a Canadian RE decline/crash than it is in the USA.

This is why, IMHO, despite the USD$ being so high, inflation is actually starting to pick up in the US, while its been fairly weak in Canada despite the CAD$ falling so much. Canada has a huge deflationary runway ahead of it. The US already went down that runway with its RE collapse in 2008/2009 and has very little left until they’re into inflation. This is also why there will be a significant disconnect between Fed interest rate policy (higher rates), and BoC policy rate (likely to go zero or even slightly negative).

What this all does to the currency is hard to predict, as lots of competing factors cancel each other out. So a reasonable risk mitigation strategy is to dollar cost average if feasible, and maintain a balanced portfolio overall.

#158 So smart..... on 02.20.16 at 1:47 pm

Godth, Do you have any of your own thoughts or do you just puppet what you hear on youtube?

Seems like most of your posts just defer to non-credible sources.

#159 Shawn on 02.20.16 at 1:50 pm

Have Balance People, Have Balance…

AB Boxster on 02.20.16 at 11:29 am asked:

Garth,

Given the recent volatility of rate reset preferred shares due to GOC rate fluctuations, would you still consider preferred shares to be a portion of a fixed income portion of a balanced portfolio, or would you consider these to be part of the growth part of a portfolio?

Or perhaps they fit somewhere in between?

Thx

Of course preferreds are FI. — Garth

*****************************************
Agreed, preferreds are in the Fixed Income Category

But “Fixed Income” is a broad category and just like equities needs to be carved up into different components. We carve equities into growth and value, small cap, large, Canadian, U.S. and rest of world. Developed countries and emerging markets.

Similarly Fixed Income can be carved into categories that include bonds, preferred shares and REITs.

Looking just at preferred shares we can carve that up as well.

Many preferred shares have perpetual fixed dividends. If held indefinitely you get a true fixed income just like a bond. You take inflation risk however. Your return after inflation is not fixed. You have absolutely no guarantee as to the principal value, it could fluctuate up or down a lot.

Other preferred shares are variable rate. There is better protection against inflation since interest rates are driven partly by inflation. Your income was likely to be somewhat more fixed in terms of real dollars but not nominal dollars. The share price might be more stable. But the coupon was constant in real dollars only if changes in interest rates were driven by inflation. If as has happened in the last few years interest rates came down far more than inflation did then your dividend income dropped not only in nominal dollars but in real dollars. And the share price also dropped because of the decline in the real value of the dividend.

Then came rate reset shares. These really should have behaved like more traditional variable rate preferred shares and were expected to be reasonably stable in principal vale. But interest rates dropped for reasons unrelated to inflation. For a variety of reasons the market spread on these increased and the market values dropped. When they reset you got a lower nominal dividend and it was also far lower in real dollars because inflation had not changed much.

So in the end various types of preferred shares belong in Fixed Income but as Garth preaches always in balance. Don’t fill your whole fixed income allocation with REITs or rate resets or bonds, have allocations to each and to regular fixed rate prefs as well or have ETFs that do that for you. It’s part of Garth’s recommended portfolio as I recall.

Part of the problem with Fixed Income is that they may well be bought for income (especially by retired people) but nevertheless your account will show the daily capital gains and losses and those are hard to ignore.

Others (those not retired) buy Fixed Income not so much for the income but to add stability to a portfolio. Ideally they are more stable in value, but not always. Ideally the fixed income part of the portfolio goes up or stays stable when equities drop. But not always. And even when fixed income does its job we still regret it when doing that job involves a capital loss and when we see that loss in our face on the broker statement.

Ideally we set a balanced portfolio and then stick with it and rebalance periodically and try to ignore the ups and downs. But, being human (well most of us) we can’t ignore the ups and downs.

So, again, as Garth says be Balanced.

#160 MF on 02.20.16 at 2:05 pm

#149 Herb on 02.20.16 at 12:04 pm

Yup. The Brits don’t like being told what to do by Germany. That’s how it’s perceived. The migrant rapeugees crisis has turned the EU inside out, and everyone blames Merkel for this completely idiotic open door policy. The open border idea, meant for the free exchange of goods, is being exploited by the migrants pretending they are fleeing war in Syria (but are really people from all over the Mid East and Africa looking for a free ride). Never mind the terror threat they bring.

The new group that leaves should be called “the enlightened 27” when the EU finally crumbles.

MF

#161 Shawn on 02.20.16 at 2:06 pm

Bank Profits Likely to Soar

Imagine how bank’s costs are going to plummet as we phase out cash. To process all our inflows and outflows from our accounts all the bank will need is one gigantic computer system. No human intervention needed. No need for branches for that. No bank machines too.

And as far as lending money that is becoming increasingly determined by computers. So again, need a loan? enter your request and all details in the banks giant computer system and if the computer approves it then the “money” will be credited to your account. Payments will come out of your account. No human intervention needed.

The reason to have bank branches could disappear fast.

Bank costs will drop like a stone.

Branches could be replaced by smaller mutual fund sales offices. And even that along with credit card sales could perhaps be done far more efficiently by electronic marketing.

But what of bank profits? Will they be competed away? Hard to say but most of us will still find it inconvenient to switch banks.

With the vastly lower costs and despite new competitors I think bank profits will remain strong for years to come.

Sadly, tens of thousands will lose their jobs as well. But, ultimately the economy benefits from technology, we must not be luddites about it.

You do own some bank shares somewhere in your portfolio directly or in ETFs, correct?

#162 WalMark on 02.20.16 at 2:07 pm

I did not say if they are rising or falling, but rather provided you the latest realtor stats. — Garth

ppl seem to have a hard time reading

#163 MF on 02.20.16 at 2:32 pm

#140 crowdedelevatorfartz on 02.20.16 at 11:33 am

Yessir. Completely agree with everything you said. The “refugees” will mark the end of the EU.

MF

#164 MF on 02.20.16 at 2:38 pm

#153 TurnerNation on 02.20.16 at 1:12 pm

Lol “schlock” pickers.

Someone must be a fan of The Donald, AKA the next POTUS.

MF

#165 The greatest fool.ca on 02.20.16 at 2:42 pm

Allen and Roxy got them some moxy

#166 WalMark on 02.20.16 at 3:16 pm

i wonder what the total sales volumes are. avg prices aren’t interesting to anybody

#167 Hope & Change (Canada) on 02.20.16 at 3:28 pm

#142 Shawn on 02.20.16 at 11:43 am
EQUALIZATION IS THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT’S BUSINESS NOT ALBERTA’s

#103 Hope & Change (Canada) on 02.20.16 at 6:33 am helpfully points out:

Paying federal income tax is a small price to pay for being allowed to live as we do.

And there should be no expectation that the federal government must spend your share on you, your town’s share on your town or your province’s share on your province.

Sure if you think federal taxes are too high or spent in the wrong places you have a right to complain. But there never should have been any expectation that all Alberta federal taxes would flow back to Alberta. You have a right to promote that expectation but it simply is not a valid expectation. People can always invent ways to feel aggrieved. Does not mean they are valid.

[Shawn talks about his love for Canada]

Lovely. I think we should all stand up and sing Oh Canada and watch a hockey game.

The fact is that Alberta has developed it’s resources over decades and this has allowed a higher standard of living for all of Canada.

Some provinces have decided that they will not develop their resources, and instead live on someone else’s back.

So when the ROC says they don’t benefit from the Oil sands, that they want to get their ‘fair share’ from every pipeline, then now you know, that in fact, in 2009 alone they did benefit to the tune of 16B$.

The comment was not directed at you and whether you agreed with it or not. It’s just a fact that needs to be out there because a lot of people have no idea.

#168 Welcome to Slurrey on 02.20.16 at 4:06 pm

#106 Saint Herb

Currently feeling your pain. Markets haven’t been great, I argue with people around me and currently they are winning when it comes to housing. People buying real estate as in investment, selling for a profit (and a big one) within months then buying more real estate (or trading in for depreciating assets nice cars etc…). Either way they are on top.They don’t understand the risk because in their minds real estate is a winning bet and it has been. Can’t time the markets ….my question is when will the housing boom flatline or start declining and when will my financial assets start outpacing housing as it is historically supposed to. Bitter basement dweller in Slurrey.

#169 zudnic on 02.20.16 at 4:24 pm

When people believe they can buy and sell houses like stocks. The market is over! The couple is doing a smart move, buy wholesale and sell retail. The problem most of the speculators are looking for high short term profits. We have foreign “investors” who don’t know North American real estate. They are buying and holding houses, condos and townhomes. These assets, like all assets, they fluctuate. If they understood the lower mainland, they’d realise we have lots of farmland that isn’t farmed. We can make more houses, condos and townhomes. Supply and demand 101. Its foolish to hold an dwelling.

Back in the 80’s, I was in high school. For business class, we studied the stock market. We had to pick stocks and where given a pretend $50k. I jokingly said to my teacher, I only know how to sell stocks, can I short and do private placements with my money. I had to explain both to my teacher and class.

If you are buying and selling anything, if you are paying retail, you are doing it wrong. So can’t blame the couple for trying.

#170 Bram on 02.20.16 at 4:28 pm

#155 Mark on 02.20.16 at 1:35 pm
Its just that the method of adjustment, comparing identical properties over the span of many years, inherently renders the index not that useful for studying real-time pricing changes.

Like I said, there is no lag, otherwise how could the seasonal pattern show up so clearly in TO graph? I challenge you to explain those high frequency pattens in the data if there was a multi year lag.

Yes I agree with one point: there is a gap of many years between sale and re-sale of each data-point. Absolutely!

No, that does not mean that the graph does not show high frequencies: every month Teranet gathers many data-points of re-sales. So, yes, the graph shows per-month changes. There is no three-year long averaging filter going over this data.

Guys, it really is no rocket science. With a little back ground information on their methodology, it is not that hard to get real insights from that data.

Anyway, I give up now. It’s the last time I try to convince you of this.
Teranet gives me an ear on the pulse of the market. It’s good enough for me.
If you don’t trust it, so be it.

bram

#171 Godth on 02.20.16 at 4:32 pm

#157 So smart….. on 02.20.16 at 1:47 pm

So you apparently don’t like to read either, or like many have poor reading comprehension. There’s a moron breaking it down for the ADD facebook friendly hairspray huffers of late…maybe you’re a fan of theirs.

Read widely and think for yourself ding – dong. Question everything ’cause we be screwed – if your corn-pone sensibilities can handle that. Try Realism, that would be novel.

#172 Karl hungus on 02.20.16 at 4:47 pm

Since when is January spring? And you are comparing May to January? Bad reporting garth

The fact 416 houses cost less now than last year is a blow, I guess. Try to cope. — Garth

#173 understood by few on 02.20.16 at 4:58 pm

#161 WalMark

Look up the Canadian stats on functional illiteracy. It’s scary.

My anecdotal experience is even highly educated people (PhD) can have poor reading comprehension. Follow simple instructions in bullet-point form? Nope. Read a full paragraph and retain more than the first sentence? Nope.

Working with technical people I’ve been generally shielded from this (damn distributor makes up for it though).

#174 A Canadian Abroad on 02.20.16 at 4:59 pm

#167 Welcome to Slurrey on 02.20.16 at 4:06 pm
#106 Saint Herb “….my question is when will the housing boom flatline or start declining and when will my financial assets start outpacing housing as it is historically supposed to. Bitter basement dweller in Slurrey.”

Market vs Real Estate pros:

1. Markets are building society, industry and making a positive contribution outside of your local street address. You provide jobs and a future to more than a few.

2. Market investments are very liquid and global in nature. You want to sell? Under 24hrs, even in a bad market. Compare that with trying to sell a house in a bad market.

3. Markets have diversification. Housing is local.

4. A house is a one-asset strategy ripe with speculation and risk at the top of the peek. Technical asset analysis says any parabolic move “hockey stick” never lasts and comes down 67%.

No one asset strategy ever does well long term.

Google: 1981 Vancouver Housing Crash.

58% LOSS in 3 years.

“The first and most dramatic
boom began in the first quarter of 1979
and extended through the first quarter of
1981. Over this two-year period, the real
price of a representative house in
Vancouver increased by 119%. This was
followed by a longer, but equally dramatic,
bust that saw prices fall to close to their
original pre-boom level, nearly wiping out
the gains of 1979-1981.”

http://www.sauder.ubc.ca/Faculty/People/Faculty_Members/~/media/Files/Faculty%20Research/Publications/Helsley-Paper-BoomsBustsBubbles.ashx

#175 Penny Henny on 02.20.16 at 5:09 pm

Hey! Heads up.
I know everyone here is smart with their money but here is a heads up.
Went to fill up at Shell today for 87.9/l and I couldn’t help but notice that premium was 20 cents more per litre (yes Mark, it was 107.9/l).
What a fricken rip off!!
So just because the sign shows a low price for regular don’t ASSume (yes you Leo) that the price for premium is priced accordingly.

20 cents per litre, RIP OFF!

#176 Babbler on 02.20.16 at 5:13 pm

#117 MF on 02.20.16 at 9:55 am

Luck certainly had a role in his gains, but the gains are his to keep regardless. As far as the next downturn, I just don’t see one coming any time soon. I also don’t see that it would be a big one because Central Banksters certainly won’t be raising rates. I believe that’s the only thing that would drop RE.

BTW, my son knows this fellow also and he values his opinion more than mine:-( He quotes this fellow as he scornfully ridicules a former multi-generation Canadian tenant of his (basement) asking him if he wanted his rent paid “in cheque or cash”. This has made an impression on my son and he is loathe to pay any landlord’s mortgage. As such, my son will be buying a house within the next few months. I can’t talk him or his fiancé out of it.

#177 Shawn on 02.20.16 at 5:18 pm

And One More Thing About Those Transfer Payments From Alberta

The implicit assumption is that if Federal taxes collected in Alberta were spent back in Alberta that it would benefit you personally.

That is highly doubtful.

We often implicitly assume we are on some Team Alberta or Team Canada. The reality is that economically we are individuals.

Federal money spent in Alberta does not necessarily have any more benefit at all to an individual Albertan than money spent in Quebec.

Look after yourself. Pay your taxes and be grateful for the wonderful opportunities of life in 2016 in whatever part of Canada you are lucky enough to live in.

Any complaints around taxes are minor things in the big picture. Be grateful you have the income to pay those taxes.

Remember Teams are for sports, for entertainment, that is, you are on Team You and Your family, not on Team Alberta or Team Quebec.

#178 eddy on 02.20.16 at 5:41 pm

The fact 416 houses cost less now than last year is a blow, I guess. Try to cope. — Garth

—-

I’m looking in 416, virtually every listing agent is holding off offers and selling for over list, which is more than last year. my feet are on the ground

#179 jess on 02.20.16 at 6:39 pm

World | Sat Feb 20, 2016 10:29am GMT
Related: World
Six arrested in ICBC money laundering case ordered to jail
MADRID/BEIJING
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-icbc-idUKKCN0VS13U

https://www.europol.europa.eu/content/directors-chinese-bank-arrested-spain-money-laundering-probe

“Igor Angelini, Head of Financial Intelligence Group at Europol said: “Operation Shadow shows all the challenges that modern transnational financial investigations entail: criminal activities that generate cash which is then injected into the financial system through the misuse of complex corporate structures; the complicity of several professionals who move the funds across different jurisdictions completes the picture. Money laundering is today a service that criminals offer to other criminals and that requires combined efforts of many public actors both at national and international level to be prevented, investigated and prosecuted.”

#180 Bottoms_Up on 02.20.16 at 6:47 pm

#133 The American on 02.20.16 at 11:07 am
———————————
If just 10% of us that visit this blog emailed them, we could flood the inbox to the point where he wouldn’t be able to pick out a ‘real’ deal. They are disgusting really.

#181 WalMark on 02.20.16 at 6:50 pm

#169 Bram on 02.20.16 at 4:28 pm

WalMark of Sadkatoon doesn’t understand stats. he was schooled on stats regularly on RFD. as I’ve said before he’s very low bar life skills. hard to believe until u see it. he’s spent more time unemployed than most ppl his age because of it. it’s sad but life always punishes the dumb. poor guy can’t get a job or a girl. lives w cats

#182 Tony on 02.20.16 at 6:51 pm

Re: #12 PEAK on 02.19.16 at 6:53 pm

I have March of 2012 pegged as the peak of real estate prices Canada wide.

#183 WallOfWorry on 02.20.16 at 6:56 pm

Hey Garth,

How about a break from the real estate debate? I am trying to understand how global government debt doesn’t implode. We have every major economic zone in the world in financial trouble. You have Japan with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 280%. You have China at 300% debt-to-GDP. China has over $34 trillion of debt and the banking system is flooded with bad loans. The most recent estimates peg they have $11 trillion of bad loans in the banking system. $11 trillion is the annual GDP of China. We have US debt that exceeds GDP and trending in the wrong way. Additionally, the energy crisis may just be the tipping point for a series of financial defaults that could create contagion in the US banking system. At least in 2008 it was contained to sub-prime mortgages? How does this possibly end well?

#184 Ace Goodheart on 02.20.16 at 6:56 pm

“As of Friday, buyers had 128 SFH properties to choose from for less than $500,000 – houses, not condos, most of them with grass and parking.”

Been saying this for years. Watched friends, family and complete idiots I don’t even know, attempt to “speculate” in the Toronto and Mississauga real estate market, and get burnt like a marshmallow in a bonfire.

They buy into “prime neighbourhoods” because they’re popular, there’s a Starbucks down the street and prices will keep going up forever. A million and a half for a crap semi, with no parking, a leaky roof and a kitchen that would look old in a “Leave it to Beaver” episode. Then max out the lines of credit, renovating. Remember contractors charge more in the Beach than they do in the scuzzier areas (like, at least 50% more).

Real estate speculation for the uninitiated, does not involve buying a house in a “prime neighbourhood” next to a school your kids can’t go to because it’s full, with a Starbucks walking distance down the street. That is like buying a Caddy with all the fixin’s, you lose money as soon as you drive off the lot…

If you are going to speculate in Toronto, buy one of the under 500K houses in the “not so prime” neighbourhoods. There are tons of them. I picked up a cool detached for $329,000 and a semi for $279,000.00. Then Rob Ford got booted, transit City came back to life, and now they are building a cool little subway station about a minute walk from the front door of both of my purchases.

That is real estate speculation. Bet on something. Like horse racing. Bet on a horse that is an underdog and you think they’ll win. Or bet on a house, that is in a crappity crap area, that you think will turn “prime” and gentrify. If you are right, you clean up big time.

#185 Tony on 02.20.16 at 6:57 pm

Re: #175 Babbler on 02.20.16 at 5:13 pm

The myth about interest rates will put virtually all millennials who bought in the last ten years into personal bankruptcy. Canada will end up exactly like Japan and German with falling interest rates and falling real estate values as the worldwide economy goes off the edge of the abyss.

Then they can join you. — Garth

#186 WallOfWorry on 02.20.16 at 7:00 pm

Kind of reminds you of the Big Short?

http://gainspainscapital.com/2016/02/19/this-is-the-template-for-how-bail-ins-will-come-to-the-us/

We have had Greece, Cypress, Iceland and US cities default and bail in legislation in Canada, US, UK and Germany.

Do you even know what the Canadian proposal is? No bank will fail, but if one did, nobody’s deposits would be affected. Worry about stuff that may actually happen. — Garth

#187 Tony on 02.20.16 at 7:06 pm

Re: #152 Brian Ripley on 02.20.16 at 1:12 pm

America will have negative interest rates starting around the very end of this year or around the start of next year. I can’t see the dollar index reaching 109. Basic economic cycle such as were seem in history are the thing of the past making the future far different.

There will never be NIRP in the U.S. — Garth

#188 For those about to flop... on 02.20.16 at 7:17 pm

This time yesterday I was looking for a hotel in Orlando for spring break,the wife and I went there last year and had a good time.
The wife said to me last night it would be good to go some where different,that we haven’t been before.
Whilst we haven’t been everywhere, we’ve done our fair share and I said half jokingly” What about Albuquerque and Santa Fe ?” expecting to get one of my eyeballs gouged out… She says ,yeah that sounds good!
I was going to put out a missing persons bulletin …Has anyone seen my wife ?

One of the reasons we hadn’t been was it can be cold, but they have cancelled the ski season and it is above 20 degrees because of the world switching over to Granola.

Anyway she books the flights today and I start looking at maps …this is what I found interesting ,some of the main streets are a metal heads delight.
Granite
Marble
Copper
Slate
Gold
Silver
Iron
Lead
Coal
I’m not sure where we are staying yet but I don’t want to stay at the corner of Lead and Coal…

M41BC

#189 Ronaldo on 02.20.16 at 7:30 pm

#142 Shawn on 02.20.16 at 11:43 am

Nutbush, Tennessee

#190 Shawn on 02.20.16 at 7:48 pm

Japan’s High Debt

#182 WallOfWorry on 02.20.16 at 6:56 pm said:

Hey Garth,

How about a break from the real estate debate? I am trying to understand how global government debt doesn’t implode. We have every major economic zone in the world in financial trouble. You have Japan with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 280%.

*****************************************
Japan’s debt may no longer be a problem. Debt is not a big deal when it seems you can borrow new money at negative interest rates to pay off the old debt as it come due or the higher interest in the old debt as well.

We are apparently not in Kansas anymore, Toto.

When you figure out how all this is working, a Nobel Prize in Economics may await you.

I am hoping Warren Buffett might have something to say on the matter of NIRP in his letter next week or his comments after the letter.

Many years ago he wrote about how investors in the late 1940’s were nuts to have bought tax exempt muni bonds at that time that paid only 1% when companies on the stock market were trading at book value and earning 10% or more ROEs. Those muni-bond investors got killed. Investors sometimes do strange things, like lend money at 1% for 10 years or now even at negative rates. Insane.

#191 Buddha on 02.20.16 at 7:49 pm

Cashless society is coming…will be sold hard and bought easy by the sleepwalking masses.
This will mark the true end of freedom.

Then NIRP to the moon as Debt is truly monetized and Orwell spins in his grave.

Your grandchildren will work in the Chinese factories.
…if they are lucky.

Buddha

#192 Shawn on 02.20.16 at 7:51 pm

All the Other kids were doing it…

Buffett has explained that a lot of very strange corporate behavior is explained by the tendency of corporations to mindlessly imitate each other. he calls it the institutional imperative. It seems it is imperative for institutions to imitate each other. Always safe to fail while doing what is popular.

This may explain NIRP to some extent.

#193 President trump on 02.20.16 at 8:08 pm

That half-Canuck Cruz is a TOTAL LOSER. Billairy you’re next.

#194 TurnerNation on 02.20.16 at 8:17 pm

MF in that upper level of the pyramid power is given to bloodlines and family dynasties. It’s not about actor Trump. Since early 80s a Clinton or Bush has been VP or Pres.

(Not right now but she’s been in the news every single day and is getting ready to become Ms. President. (Obama was was an interim meme as if a black guy can become head then why not a woman. Softened us up. )

Other elite families were not so lucky. A bloody coup of RFK, JFK, JFK jr. Leaving a powerless red nosed elder souse teddy bear.

#195 april on 02.20.16 at 8:24 pm

#177 – Are you sure they’re not listed for below market value to get a bidding war going and how many times have they been on the market recently, taken off and relisted??

#196 WUL on 02.20.16 at 8:27 pm

FLOP

The Wind ‘neath My Wings and I toured a bit of New Mexico in ’93 when she was preggers with my heir. In April. We had poolside heat and biting cold. The Silver Circle was grand. North from Alberquerque through Santa Fe to Taos, through the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and then a return south through Cimmaron. In the latter town stop at the St.James Hotel for a lemonade. Bullet holes in the ceiling of what was the bar when the hotel housed every great gunfighter of the time. Wyatt Earp, Bat Masterton, Doc Halliday (please excuse all spelling errors), etc. Google it. Take some warm clothing.

#197 For those about to flop... on 02.20.16 at 8:46 pm

#135 Penny Henny on 02.20.16

Penny Henny reporting for duty Garth.
Here in boring Etobicoke, original bungalows in my area are now trading hands in the mid sevens. Two years ago prices were in the mid sixes.
Penny Henny over and out.

///////////////////////
I thought you said it was boring there?
I turn on the news and there is bank robberies ,people gettin’ shot.
How much more excitement do you want?
Flopper over and out.

M41BC

#198 Smoking Man on 02.20.16 at 8:53 pm

Trump takes SC jeb drops out. Guess those 911 questions got to him.

Nice

#199 Bram on 02.20.16 at 9:04 pm

#173 A Canadian Abroad on 02.20.16 at 4:59 pm
Google: 1981 Vancouver Housing Crash.

58% LOSS in 3 years.

The UBC article you linked shows a drop in real price from 460K to 250K, which is 46% and not 58%.

However, this is in real money, thus adjusted for inflation (which was high back then.)

So the nominal drop is much less than even that 46%.
A quick calculation shows that inflation over those 3 yrs was 27% total.

So in conclusion, that price drop of the real dollar price was more the effect of inflation than it was nominal prices going down.

Now ask yourself: How likely is 3 yrs of inflation of 8% in current times?
A 1982-scenario of the same magnitude in 2016 would thus mean a -18% drop in real dollars, if we assume 0% inflation (and a bit more with 2% inflation.)

If you are waiting for a -58% in YVR as a signal to jump in the market: very unlikely, and would need some catastrophic event.

Bram

#200 Bram on 02.20.16 at 9:28 pm

#173 A Canadian Abroad on 02.20.16 at 4:59 pm
http://www.sauder.ubc.ca/Faculty/People/Faculty_Members/~/media/Files/Faculty%20Research/Publications/Helsley-Paper-BoomsBustsBubbles.ashx

Very interesting article, though.
In 2005, Robert Shiller predicted the 2008 housing crisis BUT at that time he identified Vancouver as “the most bubbly city in the world” (!)

Interesting stuff!
In hindsight, Vancouver bubble in 2005 seems pretty tame by today’s standards. I wonder what he calls 2016 Vancouver then. The most bubbly in the Galaxy?

#201 MF on 02.20.16 at 9:47 pm

175 Babbler on 02.20.16 at 5:13 pm

I feel your son’s pain. Renting sucks. I would say that right now I am renting a condo and I take comfort in knowing condos don’t appreciate anywhere near as fast as houses. Actually I don’t think they have really appreciated at all if you factor in rising maintenance fees. TBH that takes the sting out of it all a little.

I agree with the central bankers except I think they have truly lost control and have no idea what they are doing moving forward. I think ZIRP was a failure that just blew asset bubbles everywhere that are now going to pop massively. They won’t be able to stave off a collapse regardless of what they try. They are powerless.

I thus Continue to rent this shoe box.

MF

#202 WUL on 02.20.16 at 9:57 pm

FLOP:

Before I turn to the topic at hand in Garth’s latest, namely corporeal hereditaments in the GTA, another comment on travel to New Mexico. If you and your gal decide to sojourn there, spend some time on the Wikipedia entries for Georgia O’Keefe and D. H. Lawrence. Unless the AFL has wiped out your artsy streak.

Turning to real estate, I am following the listing of a house in Haysboro in SW Calgary which is 4 houses away from the shack I grew up in. First listed for $575K. I assume a realtor thought it could sell at that price. Then reduced by $55K. Then reduced by $40K. So, now at $480K.

Sign of the times on the Great Plains.

#203 For those about to flop... on 02.20.16 at 10:14 pm

Washed Up,thanks for the advice.
I’m taking a jacket and my wife to keep me warm.
Check out the weather there at the moment 10 degrees above seasonal.
By the way ,I didn’t know you married Bette Midler…nice catch!

M41BC

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/albuquerque-nm/87102/daily-weather-forecast/349680?day=3

#204 Smoking Man on 02.20.16 at 10:19 pm

Wonder how Larry Silverstean is sleeping tonight now that Trump killed it in SC

Larry , the assassin’s bullet won’t do you any good. He’s got the generals backing him.

Best you shut up. Beg for mercy for being in on the crime of century on 911 and rat out the ring leaders. It will preserve your life to a glorious natural death.

You and your boys kill trump. You will face a millatry coup and a natural death will not be in the cards.

Prediction, when trump wins MSM gets broken up into small pieces. Real journalists make a come back. Garth gets a dream job. Fk this financial planning gig.

MF leaving the tribe comes to smoking man’s school of fk the man and my preacher, and all those uncle’s who mind fkd me and he learns to trade Forex.

My father killed Nazis from the hills of Serbia. No way he was letting my mom remove the hoody. Now you know.

I could have had it all.

But I chose long branch with a vice grip shower control.

#205 Nagraj on 02.20.16 at 10:25 pm

When I first saw that picture of Allan and Roxy on the flyer, I thought: Hey! VIKINGS!
Don’t they look like Vikings though? Add horned helmets.

– like some ERICKO and FRICKA, maybe lesser Norse gods kicked outa Asgard cuz Thor objected to them gittin hitched. So they come to Toronto (not Thoronto, eh) and start – littering.

What weirdos.

If they was albino Rastafarian poli-sci post-grads kicked outa Jamaica (and denied US entry) cuz of their anti-capitalist rhetoric – who knows, who can tell nowadays, eh?

Allan and Roxy jes don’t look right.
I wouldn’t sell ’em a yurt on the Bruce Peninsula.

#206 zudnic on 02.20.16 at 10:25 pm

Hong Kong real estate has plunged 80%, its the worst there since 1991. When foreign investors home market falls apart, and your foreign purchases are also down 30% due to the currency exchange. What do you do? What might happen, people flee to safe havens like Canada. Most of foreign buyers bought to live in the home, just in case. Smart money always has an escape, why do you think Canadian corporations have $120 billion in assets in the Cayman Islands. As an investment? No. Its to flee silly over taxing liberals like Trudeau.

I hear people say Vancouver is like a mini Hong Kong, well the collapse there should remind us all, no boom lasts forever.

#207 45north on 02.20.16 at 10:35 pm

Shared Services: Combined with other ongoing projects – such as collapsing 63 email systems into one, and streamlining government telecommunications – Shared Services predicts it will save more than $400 million per year by 2020 compared to its original budget allocation in 2011, the year it was established.

But here’s the problem: The savings can’t be fully booked until the new systems are up and running. And none of this is likely to happen soon.

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/shared-services-other-big-problem-data-centres

you can’t make this stuff up

As I’ve said before Shared Services is solving a problem that the Government doesn’t have. Running an email system is not that hard.

Government IT infrastructure can be upgraded in the cloud:

Consistent with the Cloud First policy, agencies will modify their IT portfolios to fully take advantage of the benefits of cloud computing in order to maximize capacity utilization, improve IT flexibility and responsiveness, and minimize cost.

http://www.gsa.gov/portal/content/190333

Even though I’ve referenced the gsa.gov website, I believe it’s entirely possible to foster Canadian expertise and competitiveness through cloud computing. Paradoxically.

#208 For those about to flop... on 02.20.16 at 10:37 pm

#188 Ronaldo on 02.20.16 at 7:30 pm
#142 Shawn on 02.20.16 at 11:43 am

Nutbush, Tennessee

////////////////////////
Ronnie,you reminded me of this old song…

M41BC

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ipOz_k9zvzo

#209 For those about to flop... on 02.20.16 at 11:05 pm

#201 WUL on 02.20.16 at 9:57 pm
FLOP:

Before I turn to the topic at hand in Garth’s latest, namely corporeal hereditaments in the GTA, another comment on travel to New Mexico. If you and your gal decide to sojourn there, spend some time on the Wikipedia entries for Georgia O’Keefe and D. H. Lawrence. Unless the AFL has wiped out your artsy streak.

////////////////////
Ha ,I love the AFL joke …that cracked me up.
I wasn’t the smartest guy before my football career ,but I definitely killed a few brain cells during that time.
Probably had 10/15 serious concussions.
Those names ring a bell so I’ll take a guess before I Wikipedia to see how wrong I was.
Georgia Okeefe- country and western singer.
D.H Lawrence – sounds likes a writer.
Probably 0 for 2 but I got guts to embarrass myself.

M41BC

#210 Sabrina on 02.20.16 at 11:06 pm

There will never be NIRP in the U.S. — Garth

How do you know this?

Wait and see. — Garth

#211 45north on 02.20.16 at 11:07 pm

capital flight: Now that the tide of capital has reversed, nobody wants yuan: not foreign firms, not FX punters and not the Chinese holding massive quantities of depreciating yuan.

This is why “housewives” from China are buying homes in Vancouver BC for $3 million. That $3 million could fall to $2 million as the yuan devalues to the old peg around 8.3 to the USD.

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/charles-hugh-smith/why-chinese-yuan-will-lose

capital flight of biblical proportions

#212 So smart..... on 02.20.16 at 11:52 pm

#170 Godth on 02.20.16 at 4:32 pm
#157 So smart….. on 02.20.16 at 1:47 pm

So you apparently don’t like to read either, or like many have poor reading comprehension. There’s a moron breaking it down for the ADD facebook friendly hairspray huffers of late…maybe you’re a fan of theirs.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxx

you posted a song, a youtube link to a talk and a non-peer reviewed article from a website titled: “decline of the empire”. lol. You’re just brimming with scientific credibility.

I think you’re the ding-dong with corn-pone sensibilities.

Good literary skills and vocab tho. I hear they’re looking for writers over at the National Enquirer.

#213 koenig on 02.21.16 at 1:13 am

I’m not too worried about the banks. I’m more worried about how the drama teacher and his trained seals are going to handle things when they get bad.

Most people who trade stocks, have no clue how to make real money doing it. There is an old saying in stocks, when everyone on the street wants it, sell if you own it or short if you don’t. Too bad we couldn’t short houses. The only speculators that make real money, are those who buy vacant land. Low risk, high returns. The next best thing, is being a developer, little more risk, but high returns. Cost of building hasn’t risen that much over the last 30 years. A big developer, gets materials, etc. wholesale, an individual builds a house, everything is retail. Hence some developers in the states, have given luxury cars with a new home purchase, so they make a hundred grand less. They also have a full inventory to sell, once a few are sold they are in profit, a few don’t sell who cares, I still made money. Worst case, they rent them out. Most speculators now, don’t have capital and don’t have an inventory. If people rush out to Langley for townhomes, the demand will be short lived because the builders and raw land folks will catch up. All those townhome speculators, well they’ll lose their shirts. They can’t make more land, but we can build infinite number of homes.

#214 Ronaldo on 02.21.16 at 1:17 am

Here is what was being said about Asians and Vancouver real estate back in 1989, 27 years ago. Does anything sound familiar? ‘The more things change the more they stay the same.’

http://globalnews.ca/news/2444980/this-1989-documentary-on-asian-investment-in-vancouver-shows-how-little-has-changed/

#215 WUL on 02.21.16 at 1:23 am

FLOP:

Your guesses are close. I suspect that Georgia O’Keefe could sing a country and western tune, but she is probably better known for her Presidential Medal of Freedom and her painting that sold for $44,000,000 in 2014.

D. H. Lawrence was no Garth Turner but he was a fair to middling wordsmith.

#216 Ronaldo on 02.21.16 at 1:26 am

Landlords in Alberta having a tough time. Check this out.

http://globalnews.ca/video/2529351/alberta-landlords-offering-big-incentives-to-attract-tenants/?utm_source=Article&utm_medium=MostPopularVideo&utm_campaign=2016

#217 maxx on 02.21.16 at 7:24 am

#85 future Expatriate on 02.19.16 at 11:50 pm

“There’s money in non-sex prostitution.

Who knew?”

Anyone who ever read advertising copy or watched TV.

#218 Consultor y Asesor en Asuntos Patrimoniales on 02.21.16 at 7:56 am

Celine’s majestic private island-Château property near Jesus Island has sold. A 15% discount was conceded.

Although, high-end real estate tends to be mostly a local affair, could this mean that the upper-upscale segment has perhaps reached an inflection point (at least as far as La Belle Province is concerned) ?

#219 Sabrina on 02.21.16 at 8:21 am

Regarding NIRP in US, why are they talking about it Garth? They’ve had multiple rounds of bond buying, a balance sheet they’ve yet to unwind, a puny rate hike after 7 years of ZIRP and look at what it’s accomplished?

I think you need to concede a few points on this Garth, the US economy isn’t a strong as you thought, and rate hikes going forward aren’t a lock.

Additionally, Central Bankers can’t actually solve any problems, they just push them into the future, and make them worse. It’s finally now obvious to most who read this blog, and with the next Fed induced crisis (later this year perhaps) it will be obvious to you.

#220 Hope & Change (Canada) on 02.21.16 at 9:34 am

#176 Shawn on 02.20.16 at 5:18 pm

Look after yourself. Pay your taxes and be grateful for the wonderful opportunities of life in 2016 in whatever part of Canada you are lucky enough to live in.

.

Well we used to live in Calgary but we moved to the US in 2014.

When we moved to Alberta it had a bright future and it was the only place that wasn’t drowning in debt.

Any complaints around taxes are minor things in the big picture. Be grateful you have the income to pay those taxes

Unfortunately, we’re not rich enough to just pay our taxes and not worry about it. Every dollar we manage to save we worked hard for.

As well we don’t have government pensions to fall back on so our incomes are not guaranteed just because we wake up in the morning.

#221 Herb on 02.21.16 at 10:48 am

#213 Ronaldo,

in 1992 I was in Germany thinking of repatriation to Canada when the Canadian Forces pulled out. A lot of my colleagues talked up BC, so we considered it and even took up with a BC real estate agent. Prices had gone up, and kept going up over the two years we considered it.

With some exposure to international affairs and military matters, it was obvious to me that the price push in BC was Hong Kong residents seeking safety overseas. It had been known for several years that Hong Kong would revert to China in 1997, there were a lot of rich Asian business men in Hong Kong, and it was by no means certain that Red China would allow business as usual in the former Crown Colony. An exodus seemed inevitable, and there were many people with reason and the means to leave Hong Kong. So Vancouver increasingly became “Hongcouver” (politically incorrect, but that’s what we called it at the time).

Perhaps I should have ignored the increase in real estate prices. Certainly could have traded our nice house in Ottawa for an equivalent in Vancouver, but I expected that prices there would revert to normal when Asian money pulled out after it became clear that China would not carry out a Cultural Revolution in Hong Kong. No one foresaw that Hong Kong “refugees” would be followed by mainland businessmen who got immensely rich, knew better than to put their trust in Chinese governments, and would established “refuges” overseas.

Still waiting for someone to account for the increase in Vancouver real estate prices without reference to “HAM”.

I have done so repeatedly. — Garth

#222 ryan on 02.21.16 at 10:51 am

“Rapeugees”? Far to many /pol/s on this board. Back to le 4chan please.

#223 MF's landlord on 02.21.16 at 11:57 am

I thus Continue to rent this shoe box.

MF

————–

Good boy.

#224 MF on 02.21.16 at 12:12 pm

#222 MF’s landlord on 02.21.16 at 11:57 am

While I have you here, I need you to call a plumber. Had some issues last night in the loo and now the toilet is severely clogged.

I’ve already decided to add more fiber to my diet in the form of cauliflower (it’s cheaper now) so this shouldn’t happen again.

Thanks again.

MF

#225 MF's landlord on 02.21.16 at 12:20 pm

Even though I’ve referenced the gsa.gov website, I believe it’s entirely possible to foster Canadian expertise and competitiveness through cloud computing. Paradoxically.

——-

Paradoxically cloud computing means renting server capacity from US owners, physically located probably in the US, even if in Canada, without any guarantee that the data does not slip over to other countries.

#226 MF on 02.21.16 at 12:21 pm

#221 ryan

The story broke out some 4 days prior to its appearance on liberal mouthpieces like the CBC.

Those same papers reluctantly acknowledged the situation, and then quickly tried to bury it again by instead telling us how “great” Trudeau is doing. The damage was already done at that point.

MF

#227 Herb on 02.21.16 at 2:43 pm

“I have done so repeatedly.” — Garth (at #220)

And so you have, Garth, attributing it to easy credit, low rates and house lust. What you have not done is account for the ability of Vancouverites to raise the money to flip million-dollar houses to each other, considering their statistical incomes. And to increase prices, they must be trading up, not down.

If that money is generated locally, StatsCan has a lot of catching up to do. And if another credible source can’t be established, there is no basis to rule out “HAM” as an explanation.

Small case in point. A couple I know in Toronto have a combined income of over $200 K. They now live in an owned condo, and could raise a clear downpayment of $700 K. The area they are looking at has house prices in the 2 M range. They estimate that their ownership costs would be around $10,000/mt, and they think they can’t afford it. So how do Vancouverites do it?

#228 MF's landlord on 02.21.16 at 3:32 pm

#222 MF’s landlord on 02.21.16 at 11:57 am

While I have you here, I need you to call a plumber. Had some issues last night in the loo and now the toilet is severely clogged.

I’ve already decided to add more fiber to my diet in the form of cauliflower (it’s cheaper now) so this shouldn’t happen again.

Thanks again.

—————

Sorry to hear that you had an issue in my toilet.
Make sure to be responsible, as the tenancy agreement under ‘tenant’s responsibilities’ clearly says renters are responsible for clearing stoppages in any sink or basin or toilet or waste pipe if they become blocked with the tenant’s waste.

Let me know if there is anything else I can do for you, we can chat when I get back from vacation.

Great decision on the cauli! Good boy…

#229 The meme - Realties.ca on 02.21.16 at 4:36 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/02/19/the-meme/ […]

#230 Iconoclast on 02.22.16 at 11:56 am

> Justin is knocking it out of the park!

>You just cannot enrich the 1% at the detriment of
>everyone else for so long and not expect backlash like
>this.

Young Prince Justin was born into the 1%, if not the 0.1%, and has never spent a single day of his life not being in the 1%.

The election just transferred the reigns, temporarily, to a different bunch of 1%ers. Best not get your hopes too high.

One advantage is if they decide they need to start taxing the rich, they don’t have to go very far to find the tricks used to hide the money.
They can just ask Justin – I’m sure he will tell.

#231 Samantha on 02.22.16 at 2:45 pm

>> For example, the average detached home in epicentre of 416, at $1,061,789, costs almost exactly what it did last spring.

Garth, this is highly misleading statement as the TREB reported price for January 2015 was 948,713, which is more than 10% less compared to the January 2015 number. Now if you are comparing the peak of Spring market 2015 with January 2016 (Spring vs. Winter), this is simply useless comparison, but I guess you knew this :).

#232 zudnic on 02.22.16 at 3:32 pm

I like to watch the MLS, mostly my old neighborhoods, west Van (British Properties) and Tsawwassen.

One of the listings last year, I knew the owner back in the 80’s. In fact their son was my brothers best friend in elementary school. It was a nice house, on the beach, the father was a dentist. They also had a condo in Whistler. Anyway, the father died several years ago, the kids all old now. The house was listed at $3.8 million and sold quickly. I said I knew them, but I don’t know their financial situation.

But lets assume no real savings and living off retirement like income for the last 20 years. Even if she owed nothing on the house. $3.8million isn’t a lot of money these days. She is obviously downsizing

Well in Tsawwassen downsizing doesn’t leave a retiree much to live on. Even if you sell for $3.8million.

http://www.rew.ca/properties/V1137452/5110-cedar-springs-drive-delta

http://www.rew.ca/properties/R2004806/407-5011-springs-boulevard-delta?page=7&property_search=365550907

Note they are surrounded by lots of vacant land. These prices are going to lose the downsizer retiree’s, its not worth the squeeze to downsize. Also losing the buyer that can’t afford a house. Just how many foreign investors are there? Not enough to support the low end of the market. Last to rise first to crumble.

#233 zudnic on 02.22.16 at 3:47 pm

Oh just to show how crazy the market in the lower mainland has become.

Now granted its new, but the point, less then 3months ago, huge houses on bluff listed for less money. You could buy a small detached property right on the beach for way less. Id rather have a 20year old house over a townhouse or condo any day of the week. I digress, price have gone beyond realistic levels here.

today, http://www.rew.ca/properties/V1112750/604-5055-springs-boulevard-delta?page=7&property_search=365550907

3 or 4 months ago http://www.priceypads.com/seaside-tsawwassen-bc-retreat-seeks-1-988-million-photos-video/