Unloved

CAR FACE modified

When 22, I had a wife, a car and no fear. At the time I was editor of a small-city newspaper. “I can do this better,” Dorothy heard me say, modestly. Three months later the first edition of our own paper was being thrown on doorsteps, the car was hocked and we had nothing save a converted fish-&-chips storefront and eight hungry employees who expected to be paid.

Thanks to a small bank loan there was enough money to get by for six weeks. After that, cash flow had to kick in. The wife worried. “No problem,” I said. “It’ll work.” It did. Three years later we sold the operation, by then expanded to three community papers, and made a bundle. Best of all, I still had a spouse.

It came to mind this week when the long-established, chain-owned daily newspaper we went up against so many years ago declared financial failure. The last edition comes out on Friday – after 149 years of continuous publishing and one irritating, testo-drenched bearded, barbarian competitor four decades ago.

Lately Postmedia laid off a bunch of people, and so did Rogers. Papers in Vancouver are merging facilities, and CHCH in southern Ontario fired all its employees one Friday last month. It’s now estimated half of all local TV stations will be off the air by 2020. In Montreal La Presse stopped pumping out papers after 131 years and in Toronto the massive Star is mothballing its printing plant and punting 400 ink-stained workers. In a couple of years over a hundred newspapers could shut down, more or less simultaneously, after all the mergers that resulted from financial stress.

The old media’s dying. This pathetic blog’s an example of what comes next, which should scare us all. No editors. No 10-year-old delivery boys. No photogs or compositors. No press guys. No building, newsprint, trucks or drivers. Just one laptop and a crazy old guy. Terrifying.

It’s an example of economic change, of course. We’re going through a period of time not unlike that of the early years of the last century, when cars and telegraphs became more common and the airplane was invented. Bad news for horses. These days it’s bad news for oil, as well as media workies, realtors, travel agents and banks – all being relentlessly replaced with electrons.

So it’s been a relentless few days for oil, rising and crashing by double digits in just hours. Sentiment late last week was that crude was ridiculously cheap and bound to rise – to somewhere between $45 and $70 by year’s end, depending on who you believe. This week concern about Iran pumping furiously overwhelmed confidence, and there was more talk of the black stuff down at $20, before it shot back above thirty. Meanwhile Canadian oil sands crude is selling at a deep discount, while Alberta bitumen has been as low as eight bucks a can. Yikes.

Is the century of oil finally ending, what with the Paris climate change manifesto, carbon taxes in the Socialist Republik of Albertistan, Tesla fever and the run into green tech?

Nope. Of course not. Consumption of oil has been at record levels right along with supplies. The appetite from developing economies like China is undiminished as the middle class swells and with it the number of vehicles on the road. In fact, 2015 in the US set an all-time record for sales of cars and trucks, of which a weensy little slice were electrics. The real issue is production, especially in the US, which has ramped up at warp speed.

First it was fracking – blasting oil out of rock rather than finding pools to the stuff to suck – but that led to wells which were quickly depleted. Now we have refracking, which is mining the same wells again, multiple times, for additional loads of crude at a fraction of the cost. Unlike the costly oil sands process in Alberta, where dirt is dug, cooked and sautéed to extract the goey bitumen, fracking yields a higher quality at far less expense. But there’s just too much of it.

So the commodity boom, with inflated prices and the cute notion of peak oil, has turned into a commodity bust. Some have likened the collapse to that of the subprime mortgage meltdown in the US – disorderly and wildly uncontained, spilling over to infect whole economies. Sure seems to be the case, as $140 oil was repriced at less than $30, and has yet to stabilize at whatever the market price should be. Just like houses – which lost 32% of their value in the US in the space of three years, and 70% in certain areas (like Las Vegas and the Gulf side of Florida).

The bottom line?

Oil’s not obsolete. Yup, prices are almost certain to finish the year higher. And, yes, they could go lower first. This ancient habit we’ve had of burning stuff to make engines go is not over yet, and those who hold some maple in their portfolios will be well rewarded. Think of Canada like a house in Cape Coral. Unloved, unhip, bacon-scented, but you still get to live in it.

Meanwhile, there’s a reason Postmedia stock has gone from $15 to 24 cents. Next stop zero.

$ $ $

The GreatFool Balls for Life Award goes to Edmonton’s Pacesetter Homes. This outfit recently had the cajones to attract first-time, impoverished, moist, virginal Millennials into its new units with an offer to “pay off your debt!”. Seriously. Just buy a house and swallow a mofo of a mortgage, and this friendly builder will give you $25,000 to retire some of the consumer debt that holds you back from, well, buying home.

By the way, recent surveys have indicated that young homebuyers today don’t consider mortgages to be ‘debt’. Did I ever mention this won’t end well?

PAY OFF DEBT - EDM modified

 

212 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 01.26.16 at 6:29 pm

Dawgs, finally, opened FX account for USD/CAD.
Know what I’m getting into. Did a bit of retail FX support years ago, was licensed, have Derivatives Market Specialist designation.

All technical trading and vs. Oil’s price.  Man do they try and run stops on FX.

$1000 account.  Two trades completed.  Net profit $200. More importantly max drawdown was like $30. Not bad for for a few hours’ working.

#2 Twistie McLean on 01.26.16 at 6:32 pm

First

#3 happy endings on 01.26.16 at 6:33 pm

1st firstttttttttttt

#4 Canadian on 01.26.16 at 6:33 pm

So its a price drop without having to state it as such.

25K price drop makes the Edmonton RE board weap, 25K CASH BACK!!!! is a “buy now or never” ploy.

#5 Jimmy on 01.26.16 at 6:34 pm

First!!!

#6 BRL on 01.26.16 at 6:34 pm

First. Hope your dog is has healed up nicely.

#7 paul on 01.26.16 at 6:36 pm

Canada’s First LADY

http://www.therebel.media/watch_sophie_gregoire_s_participation_in_fake_infomercial

#8 Vlad on 01.26.16 at 6:36 pm

First finally

#9 Only-inflation-to-reduce-debt-burden on 01.26.16 at 6:37 pm

Rates are headed down very soon….

#10 ed on 01.26.16 at 6:38 pm

Amazing how many “adults” consider a home to be an assets, how Canadian debt is nothing to worry about because the value of assets (homes) has also risen. What a massive non sequitur.

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/debt/the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly-of-canadian-household-debt-should-we-be-worried

#11 Fed-up on 01.26.16 at 6:39 pm

Hey great marketing. Burn the client alive with 300k mark-ups and then offer to pay 25k of their debt off.

Awesome country.

#12 Panhead on 01.26.16 at 6:40 pm

Sumbitch … the price of oil is gonna go back up before the price of gas goes down out here in 604land. Guess we all knew that was gonna happen though …

#13 JSS on 01.26.16 at 6:42 pm

CN Rail hikes dividend 20%. Get on board for the long term, and collect rising dividends.

When’s the last time YOU received a 20% raise???

http://www.thestar.com/business/2016/01/26/cn-rail-hikes-dividend-20.html

#14 I Won't Tell Anybody on 01.26.16 at 6:45 pm

Dear Garth, in your opinion and in light of portfolio reports now being mailed out, what should a balanced portfolio expext to return last year all things considered? Net of fees of course. Just seeking a benchmark

#15 Silent the people on 01.26.16 at 6:46 pm

Garth,

Thanks for the post!

That is sad! Pay off your debt for what???

#16 Chris on 01.26.16 at 6:47 pm

Harold the jewelry guy is running tv ads for mortgages. Calling himself a mortgage closer. I guess poeple were selling jewelry to fund their down payment or monthly payment. Families are too stretched.

#17 KM on 01.26.16 at 6:47 pm

Light on maple! Light on maple!
Ohhhhh hold on…
“and those who hold some maple in their portfolios will be well rewarded”
So we’ve reached the turning point for maple?

#18 Sunshine on 01.26.16 at 6:48 pm

oil companies are definitely a good bargain – there was lot of greenery in market and good signs cor investors that OPEC is talki g about prod. cuts.

Btw Do you recommend currency hedged funds for foreign holdings? Even though they r expensive than no -hedged etfs

#19 MSM-Free Zone on 01.26.16 at 6:50 pm

“….Meanwhile, there’s a reason Postmedia stock has gone from $15 to 24 cents. Next stop zero….
_________________________

This is what happens when the Competion Bureau allows a biased media baron to control the message, instead of provide the message. Canadians want to read the truth in print, not some blatantly editorialized mouthpiece for the last undemocratic dictatorship.

Of course, it doesn’t help when you have a pompous, convicted felon writing on your payroll.

#20 Sugarlips on 01.26.16 at 6:52 pm

Please can you have yourself cloned Garth and posted to various other Western countries, your voice of reason is desperately needed by the moist millenials in a land down under (for example).

#21 Don Derc on 01.26.16 at 6:52 pm

Death of the printed page? I sure hope not. How about death of the printed currency? First the penny, with immediate talk of the nickel. Our half foot in the digital currency age is a half step in the grave.

Please file under conspiracy theory #73b

#22 bill on 01.26.16 at 6:52 pm

Hi Garth
how is Bandit doing?
Fine we hope!

Surgery + five and he’s hobbling something wicked. Serious badass stubble, too. — Garth

#23 bcc7 on 01.26.16 at 6:52 pm

I’d take the $25,000 RRSP option,
if I had the room.

#24 Rob on 01.26.16 at 6:53 pm

Prices in the greater Vancouver area keep rising. Doesn’t make any sense.

#25 Steve on 01.26.16 at 6:58 pm

How come i still feel sick that i never followed my guy and bought real estate 10 years ago ? Instead moved to Owen Sound / my house has not risen in value / i’m 50
my friends with no education have homes worth 500k plus / did i do it all wrong ?

#26 Yuus bin Haad on 01.26.16 at 7:00 pm

DELETED (first)

#27 tundra pete on 01.26.16 at 7:01 pm

It’s about time mass media with their lies and fabricated stories the joe public is supposed to believe, bite the dust. Poetic justice to say the least.

The public is slowly starting to wake up to the lines of crap they have been fed for the last many decades. The big start to this was Harpers ass being sent out to pasture. Good god damn riddance to that waste of tax money.

The sheeple can now start to see the truth through the non programmed media that is finishing off the fabricated lies and b.s. of the oligarchs and the establishment.

#28 acdel on 01.26.16 at 7:08 pm

All I can say; hey T2 is Canada a country or not? Times are very different from when your father was in charge. Western (so called ) Canada will not lay back and die. Make a fricken decision (beside selfies) or we will. Grow up; the clock is ticking!!!

#29 Linda on 01.26.16 at 7:11 pm

Maybe to the youth of today debt is the buggy whip that was replaced by the Model T. Housing is a commodity that can be used to finance – well, whatever your little heart desires. As long as you pay the VIG – ah – mortgage you can keep on living la dolce vida.

#30 LL on 01.26.16 at 7:11 pm

Beansprout index is a $1.10!

#31 Sunny Halifax on 01.26.16 at 7:11 pm

Garth, don’t forget that the Halifax Typographical Union is on strike – not a sign of sunny days.

#32 Rick on 01.26.16 at 7:16 pm

Wow! Just wow. I was a Realtor in the DC area, as the bubble started to burst. Isaw people offering cars and vacations to sell homes. They say history repeats it’s self. Checked my portfolio today… maybe a mattress is a good idea:). Great pic Garth!

#33 steve on 01.26.16 at 7:20 pm

Am I reading this right?

Assume someone has $25k in debt in the form of line of credit, credit cards, etc. and they also have $25k in cash.

A home builder builds a bunch of new homes. Since these are new homes, valuation can be a little arbitrary and I’m going to assume that it wouldn’t be that hard to list them $25k higher than they are arguably worth and to have the bank/CMHC agree to grant the mortgage at that price. After all, houses routinely sell above listed prices and assessed values and the bank and CMHC go along with that.

A home buyer then secures a mortgage (let’s call it $500k) using their $25k cash as a downpayment. There is no risk to the company that built the homes or to the bank – the mortgage is insured by the taxpayers through CMHC.

The home builder then takes $25k of that $500k and gives it back to the home buyer. I’m assuming that $475k was actually a reasonable price for the houses from the perspective of the home builder and that they wouldn’t have sold at $500k without this special money-back offer and so there is no actual loss to the home builder.

In effect, the consumer was able to convert $25k of high interest short-term debt into low interest mortgage debt without actually building up any equity in their home that would normally be required to take out a HELOC. They end up with a $475k mortgage on an asset that is worth $475k and all the risk is borne by the taxpayer through the CMHC.

If this is what is happening, it must be shut down immediately. The CMHC should only be willing to grant mortgages for $25k less than the price if the owner immediately receives a $25k kick-back.

#34 The Greater Cauliflower on 01.26.16 at 7:20 pm

Here is my vote for the next “The GreatFool Balls for Life Award”

The ‘Virtual Down Payment”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/condos-without-down-payments-could-be-sold-by-b-c-developer-1.3400084

In Canukistan, Down Payment come to you !
What a Country !

This blog actually broke that story, which the CBC picked up on. See what I mean about the media? — Garth

#35 Smoking Man on 01.26.16 at 7:24 pm

#1 TurnerNation on 01.26.16 at 6:29 pm
Dawgs, finally, opened FX account for USD/CAD.
Know what I’m getting into. Did a bit of retail FX support years ago, was licensed, have Derivatives Market Specialist designation.

All technical trading and vs. Oil’s price. Man do they try and run stops on FX.

$1000 account. Two trades completed. Net profit $200. More importantly max drawdown was like $30. Not bad for for a few hours’ working.
……………………

No !!!! Ha do you have any idea how dangerous this is for humans?

You need ESP, be a news junky with home made software with muti keyword twitter feeds for news before bloomberg gets it.

Steel balls, can tell difference between bull shit vs bull shit, pick the better lie.

May the force be with you…..

#36 Retired Boomer WI on 01.26.16 at 7:26 pm

Pacesetter Homes did something great!! It’s called devising an idea to sell a product currently, not in favor!
MARKETING!!!

Yes, we have had well paid advertising guys on Madison Ave. (that’s NY) selling the American Herd bullshit by the Box Car, later Truckload, now Container load (as it almost all imported CRAP) for YEARS!!!

So, the Moist must learn to “READ” through the advertising. That may also apply to the “value” of any purchased product, be it the degree, the spouse, the new car, the latest phone. Just make a wish… it may come true, just ask your new PM.

Meanwhile, none of my ‘buy’ orders were filled as stocks moved well away from my buy prices. Guess I must wait until Oil heads toward that $20 mark. I’m Patient. (sigh)

#37 Derek Holmes on 01.26.16 at 7:29 pm

Trudeau will bail out young homeowners if we get a real crash in our Canadian real estate markets.

It will work by many tactics to make sure they can stay n their property for years and not be responsible for mortgage payments.

This is probably why they don’t consider mortgages debt. It happened under Obama.

Dreamer. — Garth

#38 Abe Vigoda on 01.26.16 at 7:30 pm

I’m tellin’ ya, and no one believes me – I really AM dead this time!!! All those damned false alarms, sheesh!

Remember, you house-crazy canucks – it ain’t different this time, for me or any of you. We all croak. Bubbles all burst.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d30Y0n1nDH4

#39 IHCTD9 on 01.26.16 at 7:33 pm

#17 KM on 01.26.16 at 6:47 pm
Light on maple! Light on maple!
Ohhhhh hold on…
“and those who hold some maple in their portfolios will be well rewarded”
So we’ve reached the turning point for maple?
____________________________________________

Maybe the bottom – I’d hold off on any predictions regarding a turnaround.

I work in manufacturing, and I can say I still get my butt kicked competing with the southern states for work – even with the big exchange. Northern states are a different story (non right to work areas). We are based in Ontario, so evidently there is just too much cost associated with business here if we can’t steal work from anywhere in the US with a ~.70 Loonie. Based on recent work lost to the southern states, it’s going to take a .50 Loonie to be competitive.

#40 Freedom First on 01.26.16 at 7:33 pm

Great pic today of 2 never ending high maintenance lifestyle choices.

Great title too. Unloved. Got me thinking. Honestly lost track of the number of women who said they loved me. Didn’t have the heart to tell them that I loved me enough for the both of us.

#41 Hey Smoking Man on 01.26.16 at 7:37 pm

#35 Smoking Man on 01.26.16 at 7:24 pm

#1 TurnerNation on 01.26.16 at 6:29 pm
Dawgs, finally, opened FX account for USD/CAD.
Know what I’m getting into. Did a bit of retail FX support years ago, was licensed, have Derivatives Market Specialist designation.

All technical trading and vs. Oil’s price. Man do they try and run stops on FX.

$1000 account. Two trades completed. Net profit $200. More importantly max drawdown was like $30. Not bad for for a few hours’ working.
……………………

No !!!! Ha do you have any idea how dangerous this is for humans?

You need ESP, be a news junky with home made software with muti keyword twitter feeds for news before bloomberg gets it.

Steel balls, can tell difference between bull shit vs bull shit, pick the better lie.

May the force be with you…..
——————————————

Fascinating. I would love to know more about your set-up…

Any more tid-bits of FX wisdom for us poor but aspiring traders?

#42 IHCTD9 on 01.26.16 at 7:45 pm

#237 Herb on 01.26.16 at 5:22 pm
#224 IHCTD9,

you write good fiction for a dipstick!
_________________________________________

Actually Herb, I like to think of facts as non-fiction :)

Get used to it, I’m expecting Trudeau to keep me in loads – I mean heaps – of material for at least another 3.75 years.

#43 Scumop on 01.26.16 at 7:47 pm

In the ongoing race to the bottom, who is likely to recover first?
Brazil, China, or Canada?

At least Brazil produces coffee, which is much better tasting than ‘black gold’ or coal fired smog.

#44 bill on 01.26.16 at 7:53 pm

Ok !
dont let him get too frisky eh?

#45 espressobob on 01.26.16 at 7:55 pm

Please Mr. market, please give us another leg down.

Anticipation is a killer emotion.

#46 IHCTD9 on 01.26.16 at 7:55 pm

#25 Steve on 01.26.16 at 6:58 pm
How come i still feel sick that i never followed my guy and bought real estate 10 years ago ? Instead moved to Owen Sound / my house has not risen in value / i’m 50
my friends with no education have homes worth 500k plus / did i do it all wrong ?
___________________________________________

We bought in small town Ontario as well – 15 years ago. My house is paid for, my investments are substantial, my expenditures for taxes and utilities (less hydro) are reasonable, my emergency fund is prepared for a tornado. I think we did it right.

If you did not take the massive savings in mortgage cost, taxes, cost of living etc.. thanks to small town living (and any years without a mortgage) and invest it – then I guess you did do it wrong.

#47 joblo on 01.26.16 at 7:58 pm

“GreatFool Balls for Life Award” candidate #2?

TD promo will waive appraisal fee on HELOC
(approx $400) if you transfer DEBT of $50,000 to your Heloc from another source. Must be minimum of $50K.
Fees for setting up Heloc now over $700, used to be free.

TNLATB ” well, the volatility in the housing market is the reason for the fees.” uh huh, whats it gonna be when it really hits the fan?

#48 mike in kelowna on 01.26.16 at 7:59 pm

Garth, your buddy Benjamin Tal was excoriating Canadians for holding so much cash, $75 Billion. He wants us to go out and spend it, go crazy, buy like never before, get the economy moving…However, large corporations are holding one heck of a lot more cash than we poor individuals are. I wonder why…Could it be that big biz is feeling the same as the little guy…scared? Seems a lot of folks as well as businesses want to keep their ‘Benjamins’ rather than give them away..maybe people are cutting back on spending their hard earned ‘Bengies’just as Benjie is in cutting back on staff at his bank…What do you think?

#49 Daisy Mae on 01.26.16 at 8:00 pm

#37: “Trudeau will bail out young homeowners if we get a real crash in our Canadian real estate markets.”

**********************

This will not happen. Give your head a shake. They’ve made a decision of their own volition…and they’ll have to live with it.

#50 Daisy Mae on 01.26.16 at 8:04 pm

#40: “Didn’t have the heart to tell them that I loved me enough for the both of us.”

****************

Did you actually believe them? Talk is cheap… LOL

#51 learningfromyou on 01.26.16 at 8:07 pm

Thank Garth for this post

Let me try to give a hand to Mark here because some of you think that he is a kind of punching bag accepting your critics.

I have to admit that I’d love to have enough financial knowledge to analyze all said by him but it’s not the case, in all the scenarios I respect everyone and their opinions.

With Internet, a lot of people feel entitled to criticize others even in unknown subjects, let’s do it, nobody see my face at the end!! :)

#41 BG on 01.25.16 at 7:06 pm
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/01/25/thick/#comment-427931

Mark,
I’d really like to see your sources on that:
“Even Google’s efforts at ‘self-driving’ has produced a dramatically increased rate of accidents compared to human-driven vehicles, under idealized conditions.”

https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/www.google.com/en//selfdrivingcar/files/reports/report-0515.pdf

● Autonomous mode: 1,011,338 miles
● Manual mode: 796,250 miles
● We’re currently averaging ~10,000 autonomous miles per week on public streets

http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/181508-googles-self-driving-car-passes-700000-accident-free-miles-can-now-avoid-cyclists-stop-for-trains

So BG, how many more miles do you need to change your mind?

Computer with sensors in car allow to have faster reactions that humans, also they can be duplicated systems to keep the same performance in case of temporal failures, they do not get tired even if they work 24/7

Garth mentioned that the newspapers are putting their people on the streets? then look the possibility of this technology for our future.

1-You do not need to own a car (sad for the Harley and people who like to put multiple cars in the driveway), you can use your cell phone to schedule all your week pick ups and the type of car you need and they will be most of the time in perfect schedule, after every trip the car leave to serve other citizen or maintenance or clean up, or better (RECHARGE).

2-no more police officer hiding behind the trees to cash you speeding, the cars will obey all speed limits

3-no more taxi drivers, maybe even better, no more bus drivers.

4-all the cars electric, no gas station and all related things

5-no more tickets for parking, sorry Montreal for your beloved industry.
NO MORE PARKING SPACES, lets plan flowers instead.

6-no more pollution on the cities, traffic jams, the computers can organize the traffic in a faster way

7-no more stupid traffic lights making you stop for 3 minutes burning gas even at midnight and empty streets

8-Maybe the thieves will decide to stay at home because they won’t control the cars like before

9-no driving license fees, no need to study any law about it.

?do yo want me to continue? I do not think so

?don’t you feel living on the stone era in the current situation?
I do!!!

The drawbacks, some of us will become more incapable and stupid having more time and less stress for you, others like me could do more science.

It’s easier for me to imagine and prepare this type of environment than creating a managing my own balanced portfolio.

So BG, do you want more, here a bonus

https://www.thevenusproject.com/

#52 joblo on 01.26.16 at 8:10 pm

Hey Jane 24…..
The places in Italy and Albania where abouts? please advise,
need to start research don’t think I can take much more.

#53 IHCTD9 on 01.26.16 at 8:12 pm

#37 Derek Holmes on 01.26.16 at 7:29 pm

…It happened under Obama.

____________________________________________

Hell no, it did not.

#54 Daisy Mae on 01.26.16 at 8:16 pm

#40: Further to last….I figured you’d be looking for a reaction so I thought I’d give it to you….you’re funny! ;-)

#55 jaybee on 01.26.16 at 8:20 pm

Hey Garth,

Great post. These types of posts are second only to your dog posts (Please do another, by the way). Your followers are worried about Bandit.

Also, The Halifax Chronicle Herald has locked out their news room. Or they went on strike. It depends who you ask.

Oh, and I remember a TV show I used to watch, starring yourself. You ended every episode with….”looking out for your financial health; I’m Garth Turner”. Or something like that. What was that called?

“Jeopardy.” — Garth

#56 Estrella on 01.26.16 at 8:24 pm

listened to cbc today. T2 had some tough opposition in parliament. Many people are starting to wonder when the infrastructure spending will begin to make a difference in their lives. Ended with this song which I found amusing and thought to share….

Truly Canadian Stomping Tom
http://www.shazam.com/track/128374082/honeymoon-is-over-poochie-pie

#57 Tony Schmitt on 01.26.16 at 8:25 pm

My brother-in-law and my sister sold their house for $750,000 in 2013 in Toronto after paying all real estate commission, lawyer fees, H.S.T. etc.

They bought a house in Hamilton for $300,000 after all land transfer taxes, lawyer fees, H.S.T. etc.

They had no mortgage and took the $450,000 profit and maxed out all their RRSPs, TFSAs with all of it.

They have them all in 30 year strips at 4.5 to 4.6% which will accrue averaged out to $41,200 a year in interest each year in tax deferred, tax free RRSPs, TFSAs.

Now with their monthly $2,500 a month in savings from their paychecks it will all go into a joint non-registered account with 25% in REIT’s, 25% in U.S. stock ETFs, 25% in Canadian stock and dividend ETFs, 25% in corporate bond ETFs.

#58 acdel on 01.26.16 at 8:27 pm

#43 Scumop

Oh let me think about this one!
I vote Canada, we produce an enormous amount of food (grains) (livestock etc) that feed an enormous amount of people throughout the world. Luckily we can still afford good Brazilian coffee for now.

#59 Unloved - Realties.ca on 01.26.16 at 8:34 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/01/26/unloved/ […]

#60 schadenfruede! on 01.26.16 at 8:34 pm

25 Steve on 01.26.16 at 6:58 pm

How come i still feel sick that i never followed my guy and bought real estate 10 years ago ? Instead moved to Owen Sound / my house has not risen in value / i’m 50
my friends with no education have homes worth 500k plus / did i do it all wrong ?
====================================
Don’t sweat it Steve , they are worth the 500 grand if and when they have a buyer ,otherwise paper worth is SFA .They have to sell to enjoy the actual wealth. Bin there done that!!!
If you have no /little debt and a balanced portfolio you may well be ahead of your friends.

#61 young & foolish on 01.26.16 at 8:36 pm

“The sheeple can now start to see the truth through the non programmed media that is finishing off the fabricated lies and b.s. of the oligarchs and the establishment.”

You’ve got to be kidding. How are Mr. and Mrs. Sheeple going to find out what’s really going on in the world (and at city hall)? Let me guess …. non biased participants will be happy to post the real goods for you … and for free?

#62 Vundo on 01.26.16 at 8:44 pm

This may be a first for RE, but not for debt-financed assets in Edmonton. City Ford regularly blasts the airwaves with offers of CREDITCARDCASH if you sign up for an affordable biweekly payment. The difference is that it is easier to climb out of your truck loan that is an order of ten cheaper than a house or condo. Scary indeed.

#63 Smoking Man on 01.26.16 at 9:01 pm

#41 Hey Smoking Man on 01.26.16 at 7:37 pm
#35 Smoking Man on 01.26.16 at 7:24 pm

#1 TurnerNation on 01.26.16 at 6:29 pm
Dawgs, finally, opened FX account for USD/CAD.
Know what I’m getting into. Did a bit of retail FX support years ago, was licensed, have Derivatives Market Specialist designation.

All technical trading and vs. Oil’s price. Man do they try and run stops on FX.

$1000 account. Two trades completed. Net profit $200. More importantly max drawdown was like $30. Not bad for for a few hours’ working.
……………………

No !!!! Ha do you have any idea how dangerous this is for humans?

You need ESP, be a news junky with home made software with muti keyword twitter feeds for news before bloomberg gets it.

Steel balls, can tell difference between bull shit vs bull shit, pick the better lie.

May the force be with you…..
——————————————

Fascinating. I would love to know more about your set-up…

Any more tid-bits of FX wisdom for us poor but aspiring traders?
….

Yes, don’t do it.

Unless you have practiced for a few years, trade one pair only, look how news, economic announcements, and the understanding fundemetals affect price movements. Then see them change when you think you got them figured out. Re-Tool. Do over.

And most of all, UCC little voice inside your head..

May the Force be with you.

I’m already working with an apprentice, one per year. Two ahead of you. So in three years, by then, paraticing everyday you won’t need my help

#64 SmallBusiness on 01.26.16 at 9:03 pm

Pacesetters offer is not a surprise to me.

They have over 250 speculation homes in the market or soon to be in the market.

Hope they have some serious bankroll because it’s going to take a long time for these homes to move.

#65 Arfmooocat on 01.26.16 at 9:07 pm

God I love Global Warming

3C and raining at night in Edmonton in January

#66 jaybee on 01.26.16 at 9:10 pm

“Jeopardy.” — Garth

Haha. It was a serious question. Although I do love jeopardy.

#67 Paul on 01.26.16 at 9:10 pm

Trump
Just dropped out of the next debate

#68 Drill Baby Drill on 01.26.16 at 9:14 pm

Dear Pathetic Blog;
It is very impressive being a young guy starting out and making (or not) a success of a risky business venture. Kudos to you and your wife once again I am impressed.

#69 Leo Trollstoy on 01.26.16 at 9:18 pm

#51 learningfromyou on 01.26.16 at 8:07 pm

stop picking on mark. do u pick on disabled ppl? didnt think so. he has clearly said getting picked for interview by hr is hard. thats low bar. no need to kick him lower. he doesnt understand selfdriving. that ok. not every can understand. wrong on usdcad. that ok. wrong on inflation. that ok. wrong on gold. that ok. no need to use selfdriving to pick on poor man. life already punishes dumb. dont need yor help. mov on pls

#70 young & foolish on 01.26.16 at 9:21 pm

Value … just how do you determine what is fair value for anything in a time where volatility and black swan events rule?

What black swan? — Garth

#71 The New Oil on 01.26.16 at 9:22 pm

Oil will not go away easily as the infrastructure for electric vehicles has not been fully developed; however, as an investor you have to look at where technologies are on their product growth chart. Electric vehicles are in the early adapter stages with three new battery megafactories approaching liftoff in Nevada who will require large amounts of lithium carbonate and cobalt which are in short supply. These commodities will become the new oil in the not to distant future. Hopefully, Canada’s resourcefulness will develop this resource. Perhaps our leaders were too busy posing for pictures to understand that the new battery technology industry just gave gave Canada a pass.

#72 boopsie on 01.26.16 at 9:22 pm

Who knew? Garth in Guelph when?
I live here now, chose it in fact as a place to retire. The Merc was great, so sad, they had a community editorial board of volunteers who added many points of view to the discourse. Will always feel right at home in this town. Quite different from that town which Garth knew back in the day.

#73 BG on 01.26.16 at 9:23 pm

What are going to do all these people replaced by machines? As more and more jobs get automated, what kind of value can people bring to society to earn a living?

There so much software to engineer and hardware to maintain.
I really don’t see where this is going on the long term.

#74 Water Cat on 01.26.16 at 9:25 pm

10 Huh’s in here. It has begun.

It remains unclear if this pipeline will jive with Canada’s new approach to climate change Huh

http://www.nationalobserver.com/2015/12/17/news/kinder-morgan-urges-neb-approve-its-pipeline-expansion

#75 Smoking Man on 01.26.16 at 9:29 pm

#67 Paul on 01.26.16 at 9:10 pm
Trump
Just dropped out of the next debate.

The man knows how to deal. Two issues, demands no Magin Kelly, want fox to donate the extra loot they bring in from the ratings he brings in to go to Vets.

Its going to be President Trump, or Dead Trump next year.

He’s rattled the machine to it’s core.

#76 Water Cat on 01.26.16 at 9:30 pm

Huh

Water thick with sand and sediment has fouled a fish-bearing creek after heavy rain washed out an active construction site on Burnaby Mountain last week. Huh

Ali Hounsell, a spokeswoman for Trans Mountain, said company crews and consultants began to monitor the scene as soon as they were notified about the washout. The company uncovered a section of the pipeline after speaking to city engineers, but finding no damage, the pipeline continued to operate as normal, Hounsell said. Washout? Huh

I thought a washout only occurred when drilling down around 1400 ft. Huh

http://www.vancouversun.com/construction+site+washout+kills+salmon+burnaby+mountain/11499824/story.html?__lsa=afce-6962

#77 TRT on 01.26.16 at 9:36 pm

If housing ever crashes in Vancouver, the Feds and Provs will allow interest only payments for a few years at least. No payment of principal will be required. This basically cuts the monthly payment in half. $2500 payment becomes $1250!!

This is after QE that brings mortgage rates down.

Those that think the gov won’t do anything are dreaming. We are owned and run by the FIRE complex.

Delusion is not a rare commodity here tonight. — Garth

#78 TRT on 01.26.16 at 9:43 pm

@post #51 learning from you

Your predictions are so naive. You really think self driving cars are coming? Hate to break it to you but self driving cars are not ever going mainstream.

Self flying airplanes are here already…yay!! we don’t need pilots…wait…

And you’re probably one of the rookies who think electric cars are just around the corner. Good luck fighting the Trillion dollar Oil industry. Why is Tesla stock a multi-year lows?? Hmmmmm lol

#79 TRT on 01.26.16 at 9:45 pm

Delusion is not a rare commodity here tonight. — Garth

Its 2008 now and if the stock market ever crashes or investment banks fail, the FED will lower rates to zero for almost a decade and introduce a never before seen program called QE. Then QE2, QE3, …

Delusion is not a rare commodity here tonight. — Younger Garth

Thinking the Feds will abolish interest payments on loans to private banks so people can stay in places they could never afford maks you certifiable. Will never happen. — Garth

#80 Balmuto on 01.26.16 at 9:47 pm

#71. The New Oil

“Electric vehicles are in the early adapter stages with three new battery megafactories approaching liftoff in Nevada who will require large amounts of lithium carbonate and cobalt which are in short supply. These commodities will become the new oil in the not to distant future. ”

Interesting. Can you suggest any stocks that would profit from this development?

#81 Randy Randerson on 01.26.16 at 9:49 pm

#1 TurnerNation on 01.26.16 at 6:29 pm

What Canadian brokerage did you sign up with, if you don’t mind me asking?

#82 Smoking Man on 01.26.16 at 9:57 pm

Delusion is not a rare commodity here tonight. — Garth

Gives my life meaning.

#83 Water Cat on 01.26.16 at 9:57 pm

Not sure about this but ships ordered by Kinder Morgan in Vancouver Port.
Line 3& 4
Jan 26
https://pilot.kleinsystems.com/public/ppa/ppa_currenttraffic.aspx

#84 Hang Dog Shavers on 01.26.16 at 10:01 pm

Bloggers might like to assume the recency effect of watching newspapers die and lay off zillions, but it’s not a great blogosphere that’s killing print media, it’s an ongoing recession in advertising.

This happens when the advertisers and government pay for stories about an improving economy, but don’t purchase pages of advertising, simple. Bottom line, we’re still in a major recession and the PTB are trying their level best to pull the wool over our eyes.

The media is experiencing what a famous stock picker once said, Jesse Livermore, “The market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay liquid”.

Will the recession last forever midst phony jobs numbers and BS from the cheerleaders who want to leave office with a ‘legacy”, no, but it ain’t over yet all the same. The market is being heavily manipulated, so is the message from sleazy politicians.

Way in the background we see China doing some fancy footwork of it’s own, driving down expectations so that they can bargain hunt commodities, of which they are stockpiling like MOFO’s right now, on the sly, while screaming poverty….all BS. The smart money is buying the copper kings and iron ore magnates for pennies on the dollar.

What may happen is that we’ll see Canadians panic into capitulation as they did in the 80’s. We’ll struggle through another 3.5 years of Liberal incompetence when Canadians realize they were bamboozled into voting for a CBC tirade against the most reasonable and stable PM they’d ever had. Hate Harper will turn into Hang Trudeau, that’s politics. As Lincoln said “You can fool some of the people some of the time, but you can’t fool all of the people all of the time”.

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/john-robson-liberals-are-fooling-no-one-with-flim-flam-on-pacific-free-trade

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/michael-den-tandt-time-for-liberals-to-stop-the-platitudes-and-start-governing

#85 Herb on 01.26.16 at 10:02 pm

#42 IHCTD9,

“… I like to think of facts as non-fiction :)”

As they are, and I’m sure the “New Government of Canada” (if the CPC trademark has expired) will give you some to write about, with editorial opinion, of course.

BTW, where were you during the last nine years? I know, right here, creating Conservative “facts” under another handle.

#86 Frank on 01.26.16 at 10:04 pm

I’ve noticed a diversion away from talk about real estate to the economy as a whole. I think there’s a realization that the crash we’ve all been waiting/hoping for isn’t going to happen in 2016. It was looking good for that early December but now it’s likely that rates will inch up, if at all, and scaredy-cat investors will pour more into real estate instead of the big bad markets.

#87 Water Cat on 01.26.16 at 10:05 pm

Bingo
Shipped ordered by Kinder Morgan cannot ship oil
Pacific Northwest Ship and Cargo Services

#88 Big Dipper on 01.26.16 at 10:06 pm

Postmedia is dying because they have been oversupplying the market with right-wing crap. Canada is largely a progressive, left of center Country. Canadians have rejected the far right Sun News crap and blatant National Post Con ideologies at the last election.

Except for some prairie rednecks, and the perpetual malcontents on this blog, Postmedia is a disconnect with the market. Notice that the Globe and Mail is still successful.

Good riddance.

People who do not agree with you don’t deserve jobs? Ain’t socialism great? — Garth

#89 Sheane Wallace on 01.26.16 at 10:08 pm

Recovery in oil prices?

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-outlook-world-bank-idUSKCN0V41XJ

The World Bank has slashed its forecast for crude oil prices by $14 to $37 per barrel for 2016, it said on Tuesday, amid growing supply and weak demand prospects from emerging markets.

They will revise it again downwards.

#90 Water Cat on 01.26.16 at 10:11 pm

Hang on delete bingo post. Need research

#91 Drill Baby Drill on 01.26.16 at 10:21 pm

As I have stated on this pathetic blog several times in the past (look it up) Alberta will rise again. The oil price will stabilize shortly (it has to because whether you are Shite or Sunni they need the stable source of cash) in the $40 – $50 USD/bbl range. The only real fly in the ointment is the Ruskies. They will initially resist but will fall in line because even commie pinkos need stable funding.

#92 Randy on 01.26.16 at 10:23 pm

Meanwhile Trudeau stills owes the CBC Union Hacks $150 Million of Taxpayers Monies for producing his campaign.

#93 Investx on 01.26.16 at 10:25 pm

So maple is good to buy now?

That’s quite an abrupt change. Kinda market timing-ish.

Where did I say that? Maintain the weighting suggested earlier. And try not to be a dick. — Garth

#94 Smoking Man on 01.26.16 at 10:27 pm

#88 Big Dipper on 01.26.16 at 10:06 pm
Postmedia is dying because they have been oversupplying the market with right-wing crap. Canada is largely a progressive, left of center Country. Canadians have rejected the far right Sun News crap and blatant National Post Con ideologies at the last election.

Except for some prairie rednecks, and the perpetual malcontents on this blog, Postmedia is a disconnect with the market. Notice that the Globe and Mail is still successful.

Good riddance.

People who do not agree with you don’t deserve jobs? Ain’t socialism great? — Garth

Typical fkg commie, the word big dipper. Gives me a visual of some fat lazy entitled Brat feminist ball less man with their hand reaching for my thick wallet.

Its not padded from hand outs, it’s padded with balls to the wall risk taking.

Try and get..

#95 WUL on 01.26.16 at 10:30 pm

Speaking of delusions, the Alberta budget of October, 2015 was predicated on $50 per bbl for WTI for the balance of this budget year (ends in about 60 days).

Then for the fiscal year starting April Fool’s Day, the projection was $60 per bbl. I do not think the price of the black stuff is going to double in about 8 weeks. The year to date average is $31.15.

Sadly for this lovely province, the 12 miles of rough logging road ahead of us has lengthened to 16.

#96 Alberta Blue Blood on 01.26.16 at 10:32 pm

There’s not enough kickback from Pacesetter a/o neither enough gin in that town to ever entice me to live in Redmonton.

Nothing says middle of nowhere like seeing YEG from the air. And nothing says going nowhere fast like being the bastion of the Orange Crash.

Speaking of Orange Crash, the Edmonton Journal changed their brand colours to orange shortly after the NDP were elected. They deserve to go down first with the ship they charted.

#97 Water Cat on 01.26.16 at 10:32 pm

The broker Pacific Northwest Ship and Cargo services broker sulphur, grain, concentrates, coal, livestock. No oil. Ordered by Kinder. So that is safe to say at this point.

#98 Smoking Man on 01.26.16 at 10:39 pm

#89 Sheane Wallace on 01.26.16 at 10:08 pm
Recovery in oil prices?

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-outlook-world-bank-idUSKCN0V41XJ

The World Bank has slashed its forecast for crude oil prices by $14 to $37 per barrel for 2016, it said on Tuesday, amid growing supply and weak demand prospects from emerging markets.

They will revise it again downwards.

How does one decern bull shit from truth.

Must be a good liar. A master liar. Only then can you see the truth. You know all the tricks.

Sadly, school punishes the liar, elivatates the fool.

When I retire, thinking about opening a school that teaches this fine art.

Billionaires would probably take me out. They will lose all advantage over the herd.

Bad idea.

#99 Mark on 01.26.16 at 10:40 pm

“#69 Leo Trollstoy ”

Not posting here tonight other than this brief note, as I have a severe earache and it wouldn’t be fair to greaterfool readers to read “economic” stuff written under the influence. However, I can say, with a high level of certainty, that something is severely wrong with you. I mean, its one thing to troll me when I’m around, but trolling me when I’m not around? Seriously?

#100 Nagraj on 01.26.16 at 10:43 pm

Oh gosh, oh dear me.
The venerable “Guelph Mercury” having been in business for nine hundred and forty-nine years is kaput.
How tragic.

The Guelphs just didn’t buy that paper often enough to keep it in printed form, eh? Now why would that be? Not enough bird cages or fresh fish for sale in that venerable little city?

The name “Guelph” as far as I know recalls the North Italian medieval conflict between the Bavarian Welfs (Guelphs) and the Swabian Wibellingen (Ghibellines). Guelph was named Guelph in 1827 in honour of the House of Hanover (how very English) because the royal Hanoverians are Guelf descendants. See?

Guelph sports one of Canada’s most impressive churches.
That humongous RC church on the hill dominating Guelph as far as the eye can see, was the brainchild of the Confessor of Emperor Maxmilian of Mexico (Archduke of Austria and younger brother of Franz Josef I). Maxl of course didn’t last too long – Juarez had him shot in 1867.
The thing is: this gargantuan church is actually only one seventh the size of the original plan – those Old World aristos planned BIG.

If yer gonna talk about “The Royal City” yas wanna know this stuff, you do, don’t you.

So now the “Guelph Mercury” newspaper is no more. A historic tragedy, no doubt.

#101 Water Cat on 01.26.16 at 10:44 pm

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/details/ships/shipid:712402/mmsi:538003057/imo:9454503/vessel:YASA_EMIRHAN

#102 ben on 01.26.16 at 10:44 pm

Shanghai composite down again. All boomers to report to the bridge. Repeat. All boomers.

#103 BG on 01.26.16 at 10:45 pm

#51 learningfromyou

Well thank you for writing my name so many times your comment but you are really, really confused.

Mark was the one being skeptical toward driverless cars.
I was the (slightly) optimistic one.

You also seem to accuse me of taking Mark for a “punching ball” but you really picked the wrong guy to make your point.
It’s the first time Mark and I exchange on any topic, and it was nothing but civil.

#104 Smoking Man on 01.26.16 at 10:46 pm

Jd defenatily makes my tumb type harder. I’m so close to cracking the screen on my dumb phone.

#105 Smoking Man on 01.26.16 at 10:55 pm

#95 Mark on 01.26.16 at 10:40 pm
“#69 Leo Trollstoy ”

Not posting here tonight other than this brief note, as I have a severe earache and it wouldn’t be fair to greaterfool readers to read “economic” stuff written under the influence. However, I can say, with a high level of certainty, that something is severely wrong with you. I mean, its one thing to troll me when I’m around, but trolling me when I’m not around? Seriously?
..

I see a future bro-mance developing.

#106 cramar on 01.26.16 at 10:55 pm

#34 The Greater Cauliflower on 01.26.16 at 7:20 pm

This blog actually broke that story, which the CBC picked up on. See what I mean about the media? — Garth

———–

Big Brother is watching you! Now that is a scary thought.

#107 TSX Fair Market Value ? on 01.26.16 at 10:58 pm

Last month Brian Acker was on BNN Market Call recommending US Stocks And someone asked him about buying a Canadian Index Fund or ETF since the TSX has taken quite a beating. He said that he wouldn’t look at the TSX until it reached his firms fair market value which he said was the 2009 lows. We’re talking down around the 7567 level here folks. How can one possibly come up with a FMV this low ?

#108 pwn3d on 01.26.16 at 10:58 pm

#88 Big Dipper on 01.26.16 at 10:06 pm
Postmedia is dying because they have been oversupplying the market with right-wing crap. Canada is largely a progressive, left of center Country. Canadians have rejected the far right Sun News crap and blatant National Post Con ideologies at the last election.

Except for some prairie rednecks, and the perpetual malcontents on this blog, Postmedia is a disconnect with the market. Notice that the Globe and Mail is still successful.
——————————
Oh look, a lying sack of sh!t socialist, how novel.

“The Globe has undertaken a number of cost-saving initiatives recently, including unpaid days off, buyouts and a reduction of more than 100 staff since September 2012. It has also left some vacancies unfilled.

“While these measures have helped, they are not sufficiently offsetting print revenue declines. As mentioned at the town hall today, we need to further reduce costs through employee layoffs,” Crawley said in the memo.”

#109 MF on 01.26.16 at 11:00 pm

#238 TurnerNation on 01.26.16 at 5:30 pm

I think it’s clear you need to have a bald head, big ears and bad teeth to see this elusive signal. Congrats on the FX account btw. I always pegged you as a Baystreet FX trader anyways. Keep us updated on progress.

#245 Craiger on 01.26.16 at 8:17 pm

Lol thanks. At least once a month I think I need to blow off steam. I own ZRE. Bought it in April and since then it has gone down considerably. Now might be a good time to buy if you think rates are going to stay put for longer.

#230 Retired Boomer WI on 01.26.16 at 4:06 pm

I think I’ll go with cow pies and chicken droppings since they have never led anyone wrong yet!

“The more stocks go UP, the likelihood of making money from buying more of them diminishes.

The more stocks go DOWN the higher the likelihood to make money buying MORE of them.

in essence, buy low(er), sell high(er)……”

-Sound advice as always. Thanks again.

MF

#110 The New Oil on 01.26.16 at 11:08 pm

#80 Balmuto

Here is a link to a Tesla story featuring the Lithium etf and others:
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/tesla-plans-boosting-lithium-etf-lit-tsla-roc-fmc-sqm-cm330674

Nemaska Lithium in Quebec could be a good speculative buy with the support of the government and first nations. They use a technology that is “green” but unproven with Lithium. The technology is used with other materials with great success

#111 Water Cat on 01.26.16 at 11:09 pm

Lol. Tell me about it. Finger are sore and brain.

End the night with a quote.

Drop a pebble of goodness in the ocean and the ripple effects will spread throughout the world.

Enough. — Garth

#112 waiting on the westcoast on 01.26.16 at 11:10 pm

#91 Drill Baby Drill on 01.26.16 at 10:21 pm
“As I have stated on this pathetic blog several times in the past (look it up) Alberta will rise again. The oil price will stabilize shortly (it has to because whether you are Shite or Sunni they need the stable source of cash) in the $40 – $50 USD/bbl range. The only real fly in the ointment is the Ruskies. They will initially resist but will fall in line because even commie pinkos need stable funding.”

I was reading an article that showed that the price of oil historically has tracked at about $30bbl. As they asked there… What if oil spiked but has returned to normal and we are oil stay here for another 10-15 year window.

There is going to be progressively more pressure to keep prices down. Whether increased efficiencies, new alternatives, or nuclear technology finally returning to form….

Not saying there won’t be more spikes but maybe fewer ones that provide the opulence of flying in workers weekly…

#113 Smoking Man on 01.26.16 at 11:10 pm

Got to hand it to gartho.

He saw the future, this pathetic blog, he knew where shit was going…

My favorite sun word Smith. Lori Goldstein, I believe the bugger has a drinking problem..

That why I like him.. he’s really shitty at hiding it. Massave amount of posts on twitter in a short span of time.

Been there, done that.

My favorite, when he chirped Conrad Black as a Fellon.

#114 waiting on the westcoast on 01.26.16 at 11:15 pm

#99 Mark on 01.26.16 at 10:40 pm
“Not posting here tonight other than this brief note, as I have a severe earache and it wouldn’t be fair to greaterfool readers to read “economic” stuff written under the influence.”

I think you should definitely post while under the influence. In fact, take an extra pill. I am looking forward to reading the real Mark… ;-)

#115 Jason on 01.26.16 at 11:20 pm

What’s with the realtor panic on here? Sales are stalling hard in the GTA. Hmmmm that couldn’t be why they are worried? Oh yeah the government will just save people. Lol realtors are truly ignorant liars.

#116 TurnerNation on 01.26.16 at 11:21 pm

#81 Randy – one that’s CDIC insured.

#117 TurnerNation on 01.26.16 at 11:23 pm

Sorry I mean CIPF insured. Been a while since I’ve been in that space.

#118 Smoking Man on 01.26.16 at 11:23 pm

MF I can save you,

But all the shit in your head, your programming has got to go…Might be a shit show in the community.

Look up, That orange plazma flyet that Sherly Valintine wants to go down with is not your God. Its drunck flying plasma fliers

Real God comes from from nectonite, thay smoke from an atmosphere thing,

Nectonites gets pissed when idiots worship.

In nectonite school, they teach, ass kissing is bad, farting in the class is a Nobel prize.

A real God wants no ass kissers.

Its your programming.

#119 Keith in Calgary on 01.26.16 at 11:25 pm

I for one am personally taking great personal pleasure over the painful death of the old media structure that for years stood pompous and arrogant, spewing their manufactured bullshit as dictated by their advertisers and political patrons…..the “state organs” as Lenin referred to them.

#120 laughing on 01.26.16 at 11:27 pm

I repost your photos in my office everyday. They love it. They think I’m a comedic genius.

#121 TurnerNation on 01.26.16 at 11:31 pm

Ah yes the Sun. As a paperboy I enjoyed reading its columns by Dunf, Max Haines. Comics. Didn’t read Gartho’s column, too young. What was with that creepy US Doctor and his syndicated column.

http://torontosunfamily.blogspot.com/

I wonder if our forum host perhaps re-visited the Upfront Bar & Grill before its closure last year?

#122 Leo Trollstoy on 01.26.16 at 11:39 pm

Big Brother is watching you! Now that is a scary thought.

why scary? we shud be used to it by now

#123 Leo Trollstoy on 01.26.16 at 11:40 pm

#99 Mark on 01.26.16 at 10:40 pm

i defend u. always. low bar needs support. i give it. bromance arrived

#124 Leo Trollstoy on 01.26.16 at 11:41 pm

#99 Mark on 01.26.16 at 10:40 pm

i defend u. always. low bar needs support. i give it. bromance arrived. and thx for respoding. my name is best. nobody can resis

#125 Brian on 01.26.16 at 11:48 pm

I’m still reeling from yesterday s post. It’s like Garth threw in the towel. Rates to stay low for a loong time. So cash is of little value, savers punished, homeowners continue their skyward trajectory in the 604. Great. At this point I may have more to lose by staying on the sidelines than admitting defeat and joining the fools.

#126 Investx on 01.26.16 at 11:48 pm

#93 Investx:
So maple is good to buy now?

That’s quite an abrupt change. Kinda market timing-ish.

Where did I say that? Maintain the weighting suggested earlier. And try not to be a dick. — Garth

– – – – – –

Here:

“…and those who hold some maple in their portfolios will be well rewarded.”

Quite the change in sentiment.
But feel free to clarify without getting so dramatic.

#127 Timing is Everything on 01.26.16 at 11:50 pm

Meanwhile, at the bar…

Having already downed a few power drinks, she turns around, faces him, looks him straight in the eye and says, “Listen here, good looking. I will screw anybody, anytime, anywhere, their place, my place, in the car, front door, back door, on the ground, standing up, sitting down, naked or with clothes on… It doesn’t matter to me. I just love it.”

His eyes now wide with interest, he responds, “No kidding… I’m in Government too. You federal or provincial?”

#128 Nodebt on 01.26.16 at 11:55 pm

#57 Tony Schmitt
Hey Garth what do you think of strip bonds? Is tony full
Of shit?
Thanks

#129 Wicked as it seems on 01.27.16 at 12:02 am

I’m in Bangalore India presently…lets talk about using gas, this city of 7 million is gridlocked pretty much permanently, having gone from two wheels to four in 15 years with no infrastructure updates…..all those coders (350K) working for the multinationals are commuting in hell around 3 hours a day!

#130 marty mcfly on 01.27.16 at 12:03 am

Interesting article here. Homeowners can’t make the monthly payments.
http://www.mississauga.com/news-story/6248929-mansion-auction-in-mississauga-could-be-a-steal-for-buyer/

#131 liquidincalgary on 01.27.16 at 12:03 am

certain car dealerships have the same type of offering “cas back financing”.

up to 20000 cash back, OAC

#132 liquidincalgary on 01.27.16 at 12:07 am

here’s a link to one in edmonton; however, i did receive a flyer for one based in BC.

http://carcorneredmonton.com/cash-back-car-loans.php

#133 HJD on 01.27.16 at 12:15 am

That roof over your head:
http://truepublica.org.uk/global/3411/

#134 Big Dipper on 01.27.16 at 12:17 am

“People who do not agree with you don’t deserve jobs? Ain’t socialism great? — Garth”

—————————-

I identified the market place at work. Pure capitalism. Survival of the fittest. Thought you’d love it. Where do you get the socialist angle?

#135 Big Dipper on 01.27.16 at 12:28 am

#94 Smoking Man on 01.26.16 at 10:27 pm

“Typical fkg commie, the word big dipper. Gives me a visual of some fat lazy entitled Brat feminist ball less man with their hand reaching for my thick wallet.”

———————————

Nailed me!

Do you even know what a communist is, you ignorant dipshit? You’ll will find out soon cause we’re building re-education camps in nothern Alta. Have you IP address. Free transportation! Need labour to dig up the tar sands… It will cure your alcoholism – manly-man.

#136 Love my Kia on 01.27.16 at 12:34 am

So Smokey, having an apprentice then makes you a TEACHER!

Well wonders never cease….

#137 learningfromyou on 01.27.16 at 1:03 am

#73 BG
>What are going to do all these people replaced by
>machines? As more and more jobs get automated, >what kind of value can people bring to society to earn >a living?

BG, a simple piece of software can replace thousands of people doing the same repetitive task.
The software and robots

1-almost never get sick
2-when they get sick you have ready the replacement without hiring another worker
3-well structured they do not ask for raise, on the contrary more they work could be cheaper for you (The opposite right?)
4-The never go on strike
5-they never get tired
6-They do they task as it was instructed
7-they do not smoke
8-no dental appointments, sick days, etc, the replacement is there at not cost.
9-etc.

To answer your question I do not have a fr…. idea where the human beings will be once replaced, honestly it hurts me like you cannot imagine.

The website I mentioned try to solve that problem saying that the humans will be free from work to have more time for other creative activities.

>There so much software to engineer and hardware to >maintain.
>I really don’t see where this is going on the long term.
Come on, be creative, it’s not in long term but in short terms, I do that for living, it’s happening, I automate computer processes.

>#78 TRT on 01.26.16 at 9:43 pm
>@post #51 learning from you
>Your predictions are so naive. You really think self >driving cars are coming? Hate to break it to you but >self driving cars are not ever going mainstream.

At one point I had to admit that I was agreed with you, thinking about a lot of references on the road for the cars, until I see google doing all that with only sensors in the car

All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.
Arthur Schopenhauer

>Self flying airplanes are here already…yay!! we don’t >need pilots…wait…
I’m agree to keep the pilot sleeping on the cockpit, just in case.
We already have drones with the pilot anywhere in the planet.

>And you’re probably one of the rookies who think >electric cars are just around the corner. Good luck >fighting the Trillion dollar Oil industry. Why is Tesla >stock a multi-year lows?? Hmmmmm lol

I’d rather not answer this one, just respect, we never shared a coffee before, didn’t we?

People need to change before the industry change, for that I love California, in Canada more restricted rules blocks innovation.

At least with this blog I plant a seed on you, hopefully you do your own research and let it grow.

Electric cars where before the polluters we use on the daily basis.

#138 boonerator on 01.27.16 at 1:30 am

#70 What black swan? — Garth

I thought the thing about black swans is that they are what Rumsfeld called “unknown unknowns”.

We can speculate on what a successful terrorist attack on Saudi refineries would do to the price of oil, but it’s not something you can base a trading strategy on.
Unless you are prepared to lose money waiting.

#139 jane 24 on 01.27.16 at 2:01 am

Well 52 Joblo you asked about cheap EU living.

We spend summers in Basilicata in the South of Italy although Calabria is also very cheap. We are one hour from Bari airport in a hill town. RE here never goes up or down, so it is not an investment buy but a lifestyle one. We have the top section of a 1550 renaissance palazzo which I would estimate is worth about $150,000 Cdn. Our home is big but basic as we use it like a cottage but for the same money you can buy smaller and in better shape. Life there is simple and cheap but the word is getting out and we probably have about 50 mostly retired expat families living in our village now. 1000 euros a month is a happy lifestyle. Nice restaurants and about one hour from the coast.

If you have any EU heritage, even grandparents then you could become resident and get cover for health care without travel insurance. My friend from South Africa had a Greek grandmother and that worked for permanent residency visa.

Hill towns are bloody cold in the winter though due to alitude, Spanish islands or southern mainland are better then. We are going shopping for one of these next year. We expect to pay about $200,000 Cdn for a 2 bed detached villa.

To get to Albania you take the ferry from Bari. Here life is very cheap and you can get a small renovated seaside house for about $100,000. As regards other costs there as the song says ‘life is too cheap to mention’.

Get out of Canada and go exploring. I hope this answers your question.

We have your blizzard here now in England. Buckets of rain coming down.

#140 Tony on 01.27.16 at 2:11 am

The auto loan fiasco in America will be the sequel to the NINJA loans debacle that ended with the housing crash. Warmer climate, Americans are overweight a lot of people will soon be doing a lot of walking.

#141 Tony on 01.27.16 at 2:19 am

Re: #107 TSX Fair Market Value ? on 01.26.16 at 10:58 pm

It’s probably less than half that if the American indexes ever reach fair market value. If you exclude the gold index probably one-third that.

#142 tkid on 01.27.16 at 3:00 am

Garth, please don’t tell me the newspapers are going the way of the dodo bird. With all the hassles going on at work, and all the hassles going on with my teeny tiny retirement fund, it’s hard to find the motivation to put one’s socks on and start the day.

But I do it with the hope that one day I’ll get to wake up, pour a cup of coffee, pick the newspaper up from the front door, and spend a few hours reading every morning. This little fantasy scenario of mine helps me endure the current stresses of each day.

What will I have to keep me going if the Nat Post and others go under?

#143 davikk on 01.27.16 at 4:20 am

‘Footprint Rationalization’: Sears adds to Woes of Canada’s Malls

http://investmentwatchblog.com/footprint-rationalization-sears-adds-to-woes-of-canadas-malls/

#144 Buy baby Buy on 01.27.16 at 5:11 am

OPEC is crying the blues as cash runs out after the ‘Kill Canada’ campaign runs their collective economies onto the rocks.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/opec-makes-strongest-plea-yet-for-deal-with-rivals-to-stop-oils-72-free-fall?__lsa=7234-bd9d

My bet is that we’re damned close to a bottom. I am buying SU, CVE, HSE, IMO ZJO and XEG in equal measures. The upside from here is enormous.

#145 Buy baby Buy on 01.27.16 at 5:13 am

http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/opec-makes-strongest-plea-yet-for-deal-with-rivals-to-stop-oils-72-free-fall?__lsa=7234-bd9d

I’m edging in every month. I don’t know what the bottom looks like, but I do know when OPEC is sucking hind tit.

#146 cropgrower on 01.27.16 at 7:09 am

DELETED

#147 Clochard Kuujjuaq vs Wall Street on 01.27.16 at 7:31 am

#79 TRT on 01.26.16 at 9:45 pm

Delusion is not a rare commodity here tonight. — Garth

Thinking the Feds will abolish interest payments on loans to private banks so people can stay in places they could never afford maks you certifiable. Will never happen. — Garth

————————–

Actually a similar household debt relief plan has been quite successfully implemented in South Korea. Is such a “scheme” to be ruled out entirely at this point of time in Canada?

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d297623e-9841-11e2-a853-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3yRkBOKaL

http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21603047-korean-households-are-struggling-under-mounting-debt-hole-won

Yes. 100%. Will not happen. — Garth

#148 Tony on 01.27.16 at 8:20 am

Looks like a 72 cent dollar today and another big day up for gold and silver.

#149 LP on 01.27.16 at 8:22 am

#25 Steve on 01.26.16 at 6:58 pm
How come i still feel sick that i never followed my guy and bought real estate 10 years ago ? Instead moved to Owen Sound / my house has not risen in value / i’m 50
my friends with no education have homes worth 500k plus / did i do it all wrong ?
******************************************

Steve, go back and read your post again. You’re living in OWEN SOUND for Pete’s sake, maybe one of the most livable, pretty, accessible small cities in Ontario. You’ve got live theatre, a weekly farmers’ market, a beautiful library with attached art gallery, great fishing, spectacular Christmas light display throughout the whole downtown along the river, a modern hospital, great schools, lots of shopping outlets, several churches and a synagogue (maybe by now, even a mosque). And, apparently, your own house.

What on earth more could you possible want?

#150 LP on 01.27.16 at 8:29 am

And further to above, yes…it does sound as if I wished I lived there.

Actually, 17 years ago we owned a retirement lot near the water about 10 minutes outside Owen Sound. But the grand-kids started arriving and our daughter’s eyesight began to leave her. We figured we better be close to help her when/if her sight finally gave out so we sold the lot.

After paying taxes and water usage (don’t ask about that one!) and interest on the purchase loan, we made exactly $34 profit at sale. So three years of dreaming and designing houses on paper didn’t cost us anything at all and it had been a lot of fun while it lasted.

#151 Roanie McLerner on 01.27.16 at 8:56 am

Garth, What affect will the Fed have today? And are you saying you like Maple now because gold is going higher and Maple has a good amount of gold so we can benefit from this Market tailwind? Thanks Garth!

No. — Garth

#152 LP on 01.27.16 at 8:56 am

#142 tkid on 01.27.16 at 3:00 am

Or, do what I do. There are hundreds, maybe even thousands, of newspapers published daily or weekly on the web. Every day, starting early since I don’t sleep much, I read “all the news that’s fit to post” in several papers.

Even the pay wall papers are accessible if you first clear your browsing cache every day.

#153 Jason on 01.27.16 at 9:08 am

Sales stalling in the GTA as realtors are in a panic. You can see this by the propaganda in the media.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/rrsp/homebuyers-learning-plans-1.3364482#commentwrapper

#154 Randy Halton on 01.27.16 at 9:10 am

Nodebt, the information I got from his post just stating 4.5%, 4.6% interest rates. On $450,000 the only way they can accrue interest of $41,200 a year is by compound interest over 30 years.

Back in 2013 long term interest rates were much higher than today.

#155 The Dude on 01.27.16 at 9:12 am

Spending some time in sunny Florida.. visiting grandparents in a seniors community.

If 1 CAD equalled 1 USD, gas would be the equivalent of .45-.50 cents/litre at $1.75/gallon.

Which the killer exchange I believe it’s something like 90 cents/litre.

Most of the Americans here have no idea how rich they really are, and how much purchasing power their USD has.

A small part of me enjoys watching some of my fellow Canadians who were overly smug when the dollar was at 1.05 vs the USD take some pain now.

I guess I just cringe at the all too frequent, and yet confusing, superiority/inferiority complex Canucks display towards the USA.

And yes, I would have no problem moving to the USA if push came to shove.

#156 fancy_pants on 01.27.16 at 9:13 am

The current oil glut is setting the stage for a potential future supply shock, with prices lurching from one extreme to another in a deranged market that is in the interests of nobody but speculators (why go to the casino when you can play the stock market mentality).

Low prices are slashing investment as projects are being shelved which could be setting the stage for a future supply shortage.

your speculation may vary.

#157 House's in Cape Coral and other things. on 01.27.16 at 9:40 am

“Think of Canada like a house in Cape Coral. Unloved, unhip, bacon-scented, but you still get to live in it.”

I’m hoping Garth knows that anyone who bought a place in Cape Coral in April 2011 is quite happy they did. The sailboat access to the gulf house I bought for $180,000 USD, if I sold today, its worth is $563,300.94 CAD. On top of that I get a place to spend out of Canada in a stable country where the winter temperature is 25 Celsius. As the CAD dollar drops more and the US economy improves the house will be worth more.

You have to do contrarian things people, like buy into the stock market today, when others are fleeing. Change CAD to USD when the US is lower than CAD and vice versa. Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.

#158 Bat Flipper on 01.27.16 at 9:40 am

Money has never transferred faster from the rich to the poor, with the top 67 individuals owning as wealthy as the bottom 3.5 billion. I just wonder how wealthy the top 100 companies are compared to the rest of the planet with Apple having more than 200 billion in cash.

Why this big transfer of wealth? Automation. Large companies like Apple only employ a fraction of the amount of people a company that large used to employ. They have 80K employees, but 25 years ago, they would have required much more people to earn the same amount of revenue. Even Microsoft has grown in revenue, number of employees has not gone up that much.

Even now, we are just on the brink of seeing what true automation will do. From self-driving cars to law discovery automation. We now can order food, coffee, full meals from our smart phones and pick it up with out ever talking to anyone. You can even rent cars and pick them up without any human interaction.

Soon Amazon will fulfill product orders without a single human. Order comes in machines track down the product, bring it to a smart delivery device (auotmated car), and it drives it to you, and calls you upon arrival.

As more and more jobs are eliminated, the wealth transfer accelerates.

Also with real estate and mortgages, like in the US, soon you will be able to buy a home and get a mortgage on your smart phone with little more than a push of a button. Realtors, mortgage brokers, bankers, all poised to be easily replaced with technology in a few short years.

#159 Investorz on 01.27.16 at 9:54 am

“A new report from HSBC shows 74 per cent of pre-retirees who are aged 45+ want to retire in the next five years, but almost half of them can’t – and you won’t be surprised to learn why. Seventy-fiver per cent say they haven’t saved enough and 35 per cent say they’re loaded down with debt, among other reasons. ” – BNN

At some point:
1- They will be forced to sell their house
2- Buy dividend stocks

#160 IHCTD9 on 01.27.16 at 9:54 am

#85 Herb on 01.26.16 at 10:02 pm
#42 IHCTD9,

“… I like to think of facts as non-fiction :)”

As they are, and I’m sure the “New Government of Canada” (if the CPC trademark has expired) will give you some to write about, with editorial opinion, of course.

BTW, where were you during the last nine years? I know, right here, creating Conservative “facts” under another handle.
___________________________________________

Naw, I’m fairly new here at the GF. FWIW, I do not think Harper was perfect by any measure, but he was predictable, and reliable – and he was chopping the deficit. That last point pretty much made him the only guy in a leadership role in the entire country that gave a damn about public debt.

For me – deficit and debt are my number one concerns. I like a government that runs its finances like I run mine. Harper ran up some debt true – about half of what Ontario ran up. He ended up with a deficit while he ran a minority government through the GFC,- but was chopping it in splendid form while he had a majority. He was an asshole, but smart like a fox. I couldn’t care less if he was secretive, muzzled his subordinates, was a big meanie, – who cares? I care about results, and Harper produced.

Trudeau is fresh out of the gate – and right off the bat he has an appalling start with blowing money down the shitter. I don’t see an ounce of respect for working Canadians’ hard earned money coming from Trudeau. He hasn’t got a clue what to do, and surrounded himself primarily with folks so new to running a country, that they can’t even put though a routine money bill without screwing it up.

Trudeau is going to spend until the bond market screams, and at the end of it all; we will have a handful of “infrastructure” (remember T2 thinks social programs and daycare constitute infrastructure) projects ongoing, and tens of Billions worth of additional debt that everyone from the Millennials on down will have to pay for. For that horrifying expenditure, Federal GDP will not budge. It will be more revenue neutral Trudeau math where a little public spending will magically erase 10’s of Billions worth of lost economic activity in the private sector.

I’m looking forward to more gender neutrality, new lyrics for the National Anthem, more Climate Change bullshit, and a host of other absolutely useless policies that will do squat outside of sinking us up to the eyeballs in debt.

#161 cramar on 01.27.16 at 10:19 am

Now this is an conundrum!

1. Canadians’ personal household debt at record levels (171%):

http://www.pbo-dpb.gc.ca/en/blog/news/Household_Debt

YET:

2. Canadians hoarding cash and not spending!

http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2016/01/canadians-hoarding-money-cibc-report/

???

#162 Penny Henny on 01.27.16 at 10:20 am

#25 Steve on 01.26.16 at 6:58 pm
How come i still feel sick that i never followed my guy and bought real estate 10 years ago ? Instead moved to Owen Sound / my house has not risen in value / i’m 50
my friends with no education have homes worth 500k plus / did i do it all wrong ?
///////////////////////////////////////

Right move but bad timing re the money aspect.
Right move and good timing re the quality of life.

#163 BillyBob on 01.27.16 at 10:25 am

The software and robots

1-almost never get sick
2-when they get sick you have ready the replacement without hiring another worker
3-well structured they do not ask for raise, on the contrary more they work could be cheaper for you (The opposite right?)
4-The never go on strike
5-they never get tired
6-They do they task as it was instructed
7-they do not smoke
8-no dental appointments, sick days, etc, the replacement is there at not cost.
9-etc.

====================================

*sigh*

So stupid.

1. Machines most certainly do get “sick”. They break, malfunction, cease functioning. Always. And then humans fix them. The same humans who designed and built them.

2. A replacement machine is not “cost neutral” any more than a replacement worker is.

3. They do not demand a raise, but they do demand constant upgrades, improvements, and innovations. Which are not free. And are performed by humans.

4. No, and neither can they reason. A malfunctioning machine will quite cheerfully chew itself to bits, without a single cognitive reason to not do so. Protective systems can be put into place to prevent this, but the machine itself cannot “know” that it is damaging itself unless a human sets the parameters.

5. They most certainly do get “tired” (worn out) and cease functioning, either partially or totally.

6. No, they do the task as PROGRAMMED. By a human. And if the programming is incorrect, they will not know or care. An autopilot will quite precisely fly an airplane straight into the side of a mountain if that is what it is programmed to do. The ability of machines to perform repetitive tasks mindlessly is both their strength and great weakness.

7. Uh, ok. They don’t smoke.

8. They most certainly do take “sick days”, or at least there certainly do seem to be a large number of aircraft in our hangars having repairs and maintenance performed on them at any given time!

9. etc. ??

Machines and automation are great at certain things: force multiplying, repeitive tasks, vast amounts of computations quickly. But they have still not crossed the line from tools for humans to equals of humans, and that is why driverless cars/planes/trains that can truly replicate the full ability of a human operator are not really close at all. In some limited applications in controlled environments, sure.

#164 Mike in Edm on 01.27.16 at 10:32 am

No wonder the sheeple continue to say “house prices haven’t dropped in Edmonton (or Calgary) very much, if at all). I’m sure this little marketing ploy by Pacesetter doesn’t affect average home prices, so the RE agents probably love it.

You see crafty marketing schemes like this all over Edmonton though from home builders, and RE agents alike. I mentioned a couple weeks ago about the RE agents that are giving a 1 out of 20 chance to their clients half off their realtor fees or some crap. lol

#165 A Canadian Abroad on 01.27.16 at 10:53 am

#45 espressobob on 01.26.16 at 7:55 pm
Please Mr. market, please give us another leg down. ”

If you are a technical trader, then watch the market next week, Tuesday to Friday. It’s the 4th leg down.

#166 Soothsayer on 01.27.16 at 11:01 am

My strategy has been to do the exact opposite of what the mass media was promoting at the time.

It’s worked!

#167 Capt. Obvious on 01.27.16 at 11:11 am

I couldn’t care less if he was secretive, muzzled his subordinates, was a big meanie, – who cares? I care about results, and Harper produced.

I think you probably care very much about your tax rate and nothing else. Back during the depression you would have been screaming to stop spending. Eff FDR, right?
And ironically debt to GDP grew dramatically under the conservative government. Bad conservatives if you ask me.

#168 Penny Henny on 01.27.16 at 11:12 am

Crude down, CDN up?
Turner Nation, hows the trade working?

#169 Julie K. on 01.27.16 at 11:24 am

My much loved, almost 30 and beautiful, daughter told me Monday she had done up her “budget”.

Did not react much in the moment (because I know that math was probably not pretty AND because I am learning to keep it zipped when my adult kids talk about finance unless directly asked) but secretly it was such a proud moment to hear her utter the B word; kids DO listen! And learn (eventually).

Then, just this a.m., driving her to work in DT Van as a favor (yup, still do the kid-carpool thing when she asks being her Dad & I still couch surf at her place couple nights a week — rent free, duh) she tells me she has now dropped her daily Starbucks habit because, “five bucks times 10 visits a wk is a lot of $, Mom!”.

Yup. Proud.

#170 Derek R on 01.27.16 at 11:28 am

#159 cramar on 01.27.16 at 10:19 am wrote:
Now this is an conundrum!
1. Canadians’ personal household debt at record levels (171%):
YET:
2. Canadians hoarding cash and not spending!
???

Weird, eh? But it starts to make sense when you remember that Canadians’ debt was caused by their greed a few years ago, whereas their saving is caused by their fear now. And Canadians who built up a lot of debt previously have a lot of fear now.

#171 BeSmartRich on 01.27.16 at 11:28 am

I have been buying oil&gas stocks for a while and I totally agree with you. The price of oil will come back up and when it does, my investments will be rewarded. Until then, I will have to just ignore the noises and be patient until the glorious day comes.

Cheers!

BeSmartRich

#172 long spectacles on 01.27.16 at 11:45 am

#165 Capt. Obvious on 01.27.16 at 11:11 am

that is your deduction? … that all he cares about is the tax rate? what is obvious is you are due for a name change. I think underpants is available.

#173 John 1:23 on 01.27.16 at 12:08 pm

#63 Smoking Man on 01.26.16 at 9:01 pm
#41 Hey Smoking Man on 01.26.16 at 7:37 pm
#35 Smoking Man on 01.26.16 at 7:24 pm
#1 TurnerNation on 01.26.16 at 6:29 pm
Dawgs, finally, opened FX account for USD/CAD.
Know what I’m getting into. Did a bit of retail FX support years ago, was licensed, have Derivatives Market Specialist designation.
All technical trading and vs. Oil’s price. Man do they try and run stops on FX.
$1000 account. Two trades completed. Net profit $200. More importantly max drawdown was like $30. Not bad for for a few hours’ working.
……………………

No !!!! Ha do you have any idea how dangerous this is for humans?
You need ESP, be a news junky with home made software with muti keyword twitter feeds for news before bloomberg gets it.
Steel balls, can tell difference between bull shit vs bull shit, pick the better lie.
May the force be with you…..
——————————————
Fascinating. I would love to know more about your set-up…
Any more tid-bits of FX wisdom for us poor but aspiring traders?
………………………………………….

Yes, don’t do it.
Unless you have practiced for a few years, trade one pair only, look how news, economic announcements, and the understanding fundemetals affect price movements. Then see them change when you think you got them figured out. Re-Tool. Do over.
And most of all, UCC little voice inside your head..
May the Force be with you.
I’m already working with an apprentice, one per year. Two ahead of you. So in three years, by then, paraticing everyday you won’t need my help
,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

Smoking Man I thought you left this miserable land of Going Long in Long Branch for Boston. Selling house, liquefying assets. Now your back to a day trader teacher. We all thought you had the coat tails of the leader in Boston within your grasp. What happened?

#174 pwn3d on 01.27.16 at 12:08 pm

#115 Jason on 01.26.16 at 11:20 pm
What’s with the realtor panic on here? Sales are stalling hard in the GTA. Hmmmm that couldn’t be why they are worried? Oh yeah the government will just save people. Lol realtors are truly ignorant liars.
———————–
GTA Jan mid-month sales were up 15%. I guess if you’re going to make shit up may as well be way off. Better luck next month I guess :)

#175 joblo on 01.27.16 at 12:11 pm

139 jane 24:

Thanks for the info and taking the time.
Much appreciated!
Cheers

#176 Jules on 01.27.16 at 12:22 pm

Young people and others continue to get the message from all directions there is good debt (mortgage) and bad debt (credit cards etc). As soon as they hear good debt they stop considering it to be debt at all. They hear it from the real estate industry and their parents but also from so called financial experts on TV like Amanda Lang.

#177 Mixed Bag on 01.27.16 at 12:25 pm

#88 Big Dipper on 01.26.16 at 10:06 pm

Postmedia is dying because they have been oversupplying the market with right-wing crap. Canada is largely a progressive, left of center Country. Canadians have rejected the far right Sun News crap and blatant National Post Con ideologies at the last election.

Except for some prairie rednecks, and the perpetual malcontents on this blog, Postmedia is a disconnect with the market. Notice that the Globe and Mail is still successful.

Good riddance.

People who do not agree with you don’t deserve jobs? Ain’t socialism great? — Garth

——————–

Sometimes the left is less tolerant than the right. Paradoxical, and sad.
Another Social Justice Warrior?

Started reading this book, “SJW’s Always Lie: Taking Down the Thought Police”. Should be interesting, hope it’ll be enlightening. Smokey and FF might like it.

http://www.amazon.ca/SJWs-Always-Lie-Taking-Thought-ebook/dp/B014GMBUR4

As for the actual point of media outlets dying – I’d love to have the time to read the paper, but I just don’t.

#178 TurnerNation on 01.27.16 at 12:28 pm

#166 Penny I’d never hold FX overnight! Day only.
Oil’s well that ends well today. That’s where action is. And in US financials ETF.

#179 IHCTD9 on 01.27.16 at 12:46 pm

#165 Capt. Obvious on 01.27.16 at 11:11 am
I couldn’t care less if he was secretive, muzzled his subordinates, was a big meanie, – who cares? I care about results, and Harper produced.

I think you probably care very much about your tax rate and nothing else. Back during the depression you would have been screaming to stop spending. Eff FDR, right?
And ironically debt to GDP grew dramatically under the conservative government. Bad conservatives if you ask me.
——————————————————–

My tax rate? That is a number that is highly malleable my friend. I am much more concerned about the future Canadians who will (are) have (ing) much tougher job prospects, lower pay, but will have to suffer under higher taxes, and less services.

As far as your depression comment goes – I’m talking about future generations of Canadians, not ones from the turn of the previous century.

If I’m wrong about Trudeau blowing Billons to no good end – just go ahead and tell me :)

Do you deal with your household debt by borrowing more?

Honestly, if my modestly early retirement plans work out, I won’t be paying a dime towards the fiscal fallout resulting from Trudeau and Co.’s boneheaded policies.

I think Harper is going to look pretty damn good in 4 years to anyone who does live within the Trudeau Happy-Time continuum…

#180 BG on 01.27.16 at 1:06 pm

#137 learningfromyou on 01.27.16 at 1:03 am
#73 BG
>What are going to do all these people replaced by
>machines? As more and more jobs get automated, >what kind of value can people bring to society to earn >a living?

[…]
The website I mentioned try to solve that problem saying that the humans will be free from work to have more time for other creative activities.
———————————————————-

People living on welfare with no disposable income and a lot of time to be “creative”.

Guillotine someone?

#181 BS on 01.27.16 at 1:07 pm

Bat Flipper on 01.27.16 at 9:40 am

…As more and more jobs are eliminated, the wealth transfer accelerates…

That is not correct. As jobs are eliminated in one sector they are created in another. Usually better and more rewarding jobs. Efficiency is good for everyone. Although this may help the wealthy gain more wealth it also improves the life of everyone by lowering costs of those goods or services. People can then spend money on other things.

#182 Bottoms_Up on 01.27.16 at 1:08 pm

#174 Jules on 01.27.16 at 12:22 pm
————————————-
The thing is, if rent is not considered a debt, then a mortgage payment shouldn’t either. Much like the cost of food, most people have to meet the monthly nut for shelter.

Also, a mortgage is backed by the underlying value of the house. Thus, it is a debt that for all intents and purposes can be eliminated by selling.

#183 SunShowers on 01.27.16 at 1:15 pm

#159 cramar on 01.27.16 at 10:19 am
Now this is an conundrum!

1. Canadians’ personal household debt at record levels (171%):

http://www.pbo-dpb.gc.ca/en/blog/news/Household_Debt

YET:

2. Canadians hoarding cash and not spending!

http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2016/01/canadians-hoarding-money-cibc-report/

???

——————————–

Those two things are not mutually exclusive.

Keep in mind that the $75b figure includes cash floating in the chequing accounts of people living paycheck to paycheck, and panicked Sams and Sues who sell and sit on cash at the first whiff of market trouble.

#184 fixie guy on 01.27.16 at 1:29 pm

“People who do not agree with you don’t deserve jobs? Ain’t socialism great? — Garth”

Conservative entitlement reasoning at play. Where are those bootstraps? They reaped what they earned selling a product too few wanted. Market efficiency strikes again.

#185 Julia on 01.27.16 at 1:30 pm

ETF question from a novice investor:

Vanguard VUS and VUN. Look like same assets, 1 hedged, 1 not. Can someone explain why one would be better than the other in the current environment?

#186 conan on 01.27.16 at 1:31 pm

The advent of the car decimated the popular use of horses. Notice, that the horses did not migrate to other forms of employment. A few raced, some became pets, most became soylent.

The illustrated future value of real estate will look like a giant chess board. Some squares will maintain value, while other squares, will become worthless. The only silver lining is that Government will not have to build more affordable housing.

The fourth industrial revolution is going to be a societal game changer because this time it is people who are the horses.

#187 Stoopid Idiot on 01.27.16 at 1:41 pm

those who hold some maple in their portfolios will be well rewarded

Gold Maples that is

#188 Trey on 01.27.16 at 2:02 pm

Sounds like the energy board says crude to hit $105…..in 2040! – LOL

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2016/1/27/NEB-predicts-crude-prices-will-rise-above-US100-by-2040.aspx

#189 Rational Optimist on 01.27.16 at 2:21 pm

Ugh: http://www.thestar.com/business/2016/01/27/condo-buying-frenzy-in-waterloo-as-google-moves-in.html

“[Wekerle] finishes his speech. Then all hell breaks loose. Prospective real-estate investors surge to the back of the room, submitting paperwork for offers on one or more units as agents in suits shout and gesture to clients, who anxiously pace the aisles. Three hours later, the 250-unit, $85 million District Condos project is sold out and 170 people are added to a waiting list.”

Awesome reporting on the Star’s part. Wonder if the writer bothered traveling to Waterloo? Torstar probably couldn’t afford to send him. Wow, there’s a dozen Starbucks in the area now. Yeah, surefire bet.

The nincompoops peddling this development are promising 40% ROI.

#190 Tom on 01.27.16 at 2:24 pm

Calgary real-estate market now has ‘strong’ evidence of problems: CMHC

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-real-estate-cmhc-q1-assessment-2016-1.3422069

The headline of the story should be that Toronto has strong evidence of problems…

#191 Stoopid Idiot on 01.27.16 at 2:25 pm

CN Rail hikes dividend 20%. Get on board for the long term, and collect rising dividends.
When’s the last time YOU received a 20% raise???

What a great way to pull people into the market…. Baltric Dry Index is at an all-time low since its inception, what do they plan on moving during this economic upturn?

#192 Sue Jasquie on 01.27.16 at 2:26 pm

To Nodebt #128

There are Investors Group 2031 strip bonds with 4.37%, Bell Canada 2041 strips with 5.20% and Enbridge 2025 strip bonds at 3.73%.

All strip bonds are compound interest and payout at maturity with full interest and capital but accruing interest year after year in an RRSP, RESP, TFSA.

For each $10,000 invested the Investors Group strip accrues $600 interest per year, Bell Canada strip accrues $1,063 interest per year and Enbridge strip accrues $442 interest per year.

Nodebt, the longer the maturity date of the strip bond the higher annual interest it accrues.

#193 Smoking Man on 01.27.16 at 2:30 pm

#176 TurnerNation on 01.27.16 at 12:28 pm
#166 Penny I’d never hold FX overnight! Day only.
Oil’s well that ends well today. That’s where action is. And in US financials ETF.
……………………..

I’m out, liquidated all my USDCAD long bets.

Fed is going to Cut the rate and Putin and OPEC in talks to slow oil production. Putin makes shit happen.

I always said, One and done then reverse.
………….

Plus it’s tax time again. FK I hate this time of the year.

#194 Pete on 01.27.16 at 2:39 pm

The famous Saxony Court faux-mansion, featured in this blog on several occasions, is on sale (yet) again.

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/16528793/2290-SAXONY-CRT-Mississauga-Ontario-L5H4B5-Sheridan

#195 IHCTD9 on 01.27.16 at 2:42 pm

Harper puts controls on public servant compensation, Trudeau repeals it, and blows another Billion per year in the process.

How do Canadians benefit?

Well, we get the bill as per usual, and that’s pretty much it if you happen to work in the private sector.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/collective-bargaining-liberals-900-savings-1.3421701

I can literally dial up the CBC at any given time and there will be a brand new series of Billions being flushed for nothing. And the CBC is being as nice as possible about it.

Next thing we’ll probably see is Trudeau forking over public funds to public Unions to cover their “negotiating costs” just like Wynne did here in Ontario…

#196 Brazil ex-pat on 01.27.16 at 2:44 pm

Speaking of snow, I can’t wait to hear the “ya but’s” in the rain and snow in California putting an end to the so called drought. Yes because a State bigger than Canada has nothing to do with them running out of water right?

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-california-snowpack-increases-20160127-story.html

I understand the same lame ass excuse (so called drought) was used in Vancouver this past summer – when no extensions to water have been put into the ground or lakes around Vancouver in 20 years.

#197 AfterTheHouseSold on 01.27.16 at 2:45 pm

Fiat Chrysler plans to announce ‘huge shake up’ today.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2016/01/26/fiat-chrysler-plans-announce-huge-shake-up/79371162/

On month ago announced 2 billion for Windsor, wants to end two-tier wage (not upward).

http://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/detroit-auto-show/2015/01/12/fiat-chrysler-windsor-canada-minivan/21626831/

5.3 billion for US plants announced 4 months ago.

http://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/chrysler/2015/09/17/fiat-chrysler-invest-53-billion-us-plants/32551215/

Withdraws request for Ontario plant funding 2 years ago, not interested in strings attached commitments.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/chrysler-withdraws-request-for-government-funding/article17278957/

No mention of the Brampton plant. Depending on union contract outcome, think they may be off to Mexico or Michigan.

#198 Herb on 01.27.16 at 2:53 pm

#165 (and 177) IHCTD9,

tap me gently with a 2×4, but the fact that Harper HIMSELF created the deficit he subsequently reduced did not sink into your creative mind. Perhaps it was too hard to reconcile with your job of writing paeans for the CPC and its former leader. Anyway, the crayon version is here for you – http://www.cbc.ca/news/multimedia/canada-s-deficits-and-surpluses-1963-to-2015-1.3042571

Are you suggesting that Harper’s deficit was forced upon his minority government by the Opposition majority? I don’t recall him being held to ransom in Parliament, but do tell. As to the quality of Trudeau’s cabinet, do you remember the Harper round table of bobbleheads? Surely you jest, Sir!

Trudeau hasn’t been in office long enough to send any billions “down the shitter”, so don’t count his wasted billions until they’re spent, or at least allocated. You can always resurrect Harper to unseat him. You’ll have to wait four years, but you might find Harper still unoccupying an MP’s desk in the Commons.

Don’t know if being a fiction writer for the CPC is lucrative enough to permit early retirement, but I’m rooting for you.

#199 Smoking Man on 01.27.16 at 2:56 pm

#135 Big Dipper on 01.27.16 at 12:28 am
#94 Smoking Man on 01.26.16 at 10:27 pm

“Typical fkg commie, the word big dipper. Gives me a visual of some fat lazy entitled Brat feminist ball less man with their hand reaching for my thick wallet.”

———————————

Nailed me!

Do you even know what a communist is, you ignorant dipshit? You’ll will find out soon cause we’re building re-education camps in nothern Alta. Have you IP address. Free transportation! Need labour to dig up the tar sands… It will cure your alcoholism – manly-man.
…………………..
…………………………….
Educate yourself we need to drop this girly man shit right now, who will be left to defend woman when this shit starts to make it’s way here.

Europe has been feminized, no men left in the streets of Germany to beat the living shit out of those migrant rapists.

Can you imagine what would happen to those migrants had they tried to rape woman in Glasgow or Belgrad.

Men burn your pink shirts become men again, and get ready to defend.

https://youtu.be/fYOORimbpUs

#200 HCWTT on 01.27.16 at 3:10 pm

#177 IHCTD9 on 01.27.16 at 12:46 pm

#165 Capt. Obvious on 01.27.16 at 11:11 am
I couldn’t care less if he was secretive, muzzled his subordinates, was a big meanie, – who cares? I care about results, and Harper produced.

I think you probably care very much about your tax rate and nothing else. Back during the depression you would have been screaming to stop spending. Eff FDR, right?
And ironically debt to GDP grew dramatically under the conservative government. Bad conservatives if you ask me.
——————————————————–

My tax rate? That is a number that is highly malleable my friend. I am much more concerned about the future Canadians who will (are) have (ing) much tougher job prospects, lower pay, but will have to suffer under higher taxes, and less services.

As far as your depression comment goes – I’m talking about future generations of Canadians, not ones from the turn of the previous century.

If I’m wrong about Trudeau blowing Billons to no good end – just go ahead and tell me :)

Do you deal with your household debt by borrowing more?

Honestly, if my modestly early retirement plans work out, I won’t be paying a dime towards the fiscal fallout resulting from Trudeau and Co.’s boneheaded policies.

I think Harper is going to look pretty damn good in 4 years to anyone who does live within the Trudeau Happy-Time continuum…
………………………………………………………………….
Pretty good deal with the KID (T2) spend us into oblivion, kills important oil pipelines, sides up with left-wing nut-bar climate idiots, gives away billions of our tax dollars for some delusional carbon tax, bring in tens of thousands of unemployed foreigners while Canuckistan sinks deeper into poverty. Oh well at least the newcomers will feel a home on the streets with the rest of us unemployed. So glad I moved most of my $$ out of Canada.

#201 Leigha Organa on 01.27.16 at 3:46 pm

Garth please we need your help – how much lower will the DOW go…..

#202 Alistair McLaughlin on 01.27.16 at 4:01 pm

Honestly lost track of the number of women who said they loved me. Didn’t have the heart to tell them that I loved me enough for the both of us.

@#40 Freedom First: Sooner or later you’ll tire of manual self-stimulation and want a warm body next to you.

#203 Rick on 01.27.16 at 4:20 pm

Leigha, the market will go down until it goes up:)

#204 USDCAD on 01.27.16 at 4:21 pm

I don’t think the story is finished..

******
Smoking Man:
I’m out, liquidated all my USDCAD long bets.

Fed is going to Cut the rate and Putin and OPEC in talks to slow oil production. Putin makes shit happen.

I always said, One and done then reverse.

*******

1) it’s not Putin talking but someone at a Russian oil company.. even if Putin was behind it, the Iranians, Iraqis and Saudis aren’t interested. How do they trust each other? Blowing smoke however did accomplish a bit of a run over $32 today.

2) USDCAD is forming at this level and will either stay here or go higher to the next. Look at the charts and you see how quick each dip is bought back. Maybe big banks have algos programmed to keep USDCAD over 1.40?

3) Canadian economy is NOT just oil. It’s 1/3 of our exports to the US and USDCAD seemed to go lock step with declining oil. The other story is debt and Canada’s financials. BNS was downgraded. What is a safe bank?

4) US economy is growing but not red hot. There’s potential for a slowdown and that would kill what is left of the Canadian manufacturing and growth dream for this year at least.

5) FED is not lowering rates again. Their mandate is to keep the Dollar attractive. This low rate environment was an anomaly and rates will rise.

Keep your powder dry!

#205 waiting on the westcoast on 01.27.16 at 4:23 pm

#171 John 1:23 on 01.27.16 at 12:08 pm says “Smoking Man I thought you left this miserable land of Going Long in Long Branch for Boston. Selling house, liquefying assets. Now your back to a day trader teacher. We all thought you had the coat tails of the leader in Boston within your grasp. What happened?”

He sobered up… ;-)

#206 T.J.BONES on 01.27.16 at 4:34 pm

To 197, Smokingman @ 01.27.16 @ 12:28

Right On !!!!

#207 Henry Miller on 01.27.16 at 4:39 pm

Well my spouse and I have just retired in December last year after 38 long years. We have no very well paid government pensions but did have decent incomes and saved the maximum in our RRSP, TFSA.

We just started collecting our C.P.P and OAS this month of $3,000. We have no mortgage, no other debts and all our monthly expenses, taxes etc. is more than covered at $2,250 a month.

We sold our home and bought a smaller home a little out of the city, 30 minutes or so and have pocketed $250,000. This money maxed out our son and daughter-in-law’s RRSP, TFSA contribution room $215,000 and the remaining $35,000 is in an RESP for our grandson.

Our $700,000 RRSP was just converted to a RRIF at Duca Credit Union for 3%, 80 months GIC with a $44,000 annual payout. This will last us until we are ages 93. All of $102,000 TFSA is in 3%, 80 month GIC’s too.

#208 Nagraj on 01.27.16 at 4:45 pm

This Garth Turner person is an INVESTOPOMP.

POMP, as in PSYCHOPOMP, is derived from the Greek POMPOS meaning guide, or leader.

And this has nothing to do with LOONYPOMP which describes Mr.Poloz where POMP is the acronym for Pseudopotentate Of Monetary Policy.

Well, today Snow White and her gaggle of Gnomes warbled an insufficiently coo-ey ditty at Wall Street, and the sopranos and tenors of that Casino Chorus responded presto & sotto voce with “You aint nuthin but a psychopomp, pompin pompin allatime!” (An old Presley tune actually.)
BUT, be it noted, that in this case the PSYCHO doesn’t so much imply PSYCHE per se as it does the general implication of PSYCHO as in, say, the popular horror flick “American Psycho”. AND the POMP in this case is just short for plain old POMPOUS. (Notwithstanding Snow White’s self-effacing demeanor.)

If Snow White don’t die of no poisoned apple, she might indeed, as Shedlock has suggested, resign for reasons of health. (The lower-for-longer choristers is really cheesed off.)

I say put all of ’em, all the Pseudopotentates of Monetary Policy, in a defective self-driving limousine styled the IPSOPOMP.

#209 Penny Henny on 01.27.16 at 4:50 pm

#180 Bottoms_Up on 01.27.16 at 1:08 pm
#174 Jules on 01.27.16 at 12:22 pm
————————————-
The thing is, if rent is not considered a debt, then a mortgage payment shouldn’t either. Much like the cost of food, most people have to meet the monthly nut for shelter.

Also, a mortgage is backed by the underlying value of the house. Thus, it is a debt that for all intents and purposes can be eliminated by selling.
//////////////////////////////

well said

#210 jean on 01.27.16 at 5:05 pm

Condo madness in Waterloo.

http://www.thestar.com/business/2016/01/27/condo-buying-frenzy-in-waterloo-as-google-moves-in.html

“…Ring drove two hours to attend the event and buy a one-bedroom unit. It’s his first condo investment, which he intends to flip to another buyer before it’s completed, taking advantage of the advertised 40 per cent return. “I don’t want to invest in stocks because they’re crazy and real estate is a solid, safe investment.”…

#211 Mark on 01.27.16 at 5:20 pm

“Our $700,000 RRSP was just converted to a RRIF at Duca Credit Union for 3%, 80 months GIC with a $44,000 annual payout. This will last us until we are ages 93. All of $102,000 TFSA is in 3%, 80 month GIC’s too.”

Wow. Please do diversify beyond “just” GICs. And if you have to stick with GICs, at least don’t stick it all in one bank, nevermind a credit union with no meaningful deposit insurance. You are exposing yourself to a huge amount of unnecessary risk with your one-asset-class strategy.

#212 Steerage Bilge on 01.27.16 at 5:22 pm

Wasn’t there a regular to this blog who said buy Bombardier!! Less than a CDN peso now!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/bombardier-to-report-worst-year-for-orders-since-2009/article28418856/