Drama queens

DRAMA modified

The coveted Organics Award here at GreaterFool is going this year to Andrew Roberts, credit chief guy at Royal Bank of Scotland, and the dude who single-handedly last week cured millions of people of their constipation. When Andy wrote a headline-grabbing note saying “sell everything except bonds!” you could hear loos flushing from Edinburgh to Oakville as investors suddenly cleared the pipes, then dialed their financial guys.

“I want to go to cash,” Linda told me hours later, her voice rising a note or two every minute, “immediately. This has never happened before – oil, the losses, what’s coming – I can’t take it.”

First let’s talk about the next few days. On the weekend the US forgave Iran for being a dickhead state and lifted economic sanctions, meaning the world’s fourth-largest oil producer is back in business. The extra supply will help overwhelm demand and lead to a further decline in the price of crude, although the Iranian thing is already somewhat built in to valuations. Nonetheless, oil will fall more.

So on Wednesday, given our oil-dependent economy and the mess Canadian markets are in, the central bank will probably drop its rate, and diddle the dollar more (although forex markets have been anticipating this). Meanwhile Monday is a US holiday, so Tuesday will be a heavy trading day on North American markets after all the butt-covering selling on Friday. In short, it’ll be a perfect week to take your dog to Cuba.

But what of all the doomer talk, and Andy Roberts’ perfectly-timed appeal to base emotion? Well, he’s wrong. And reckless. The best course of action is to do ziltch, not sell anything that might have declined, nor bury your cash in frozen hole in the backyard – where inflation and bacteria will eat it.

By the way, Linda’s like most folks alive today. Zero perspective and a thin grasp of history. People like to think they live in unchartered waters, that this time it’s different, and nothing in the past comes close to our experience. What drivel. Recent market declines don’t even come close to making it into the top 20 one-day hit list. Oil was at $10 a barrel in the late 1990s and the world motored ahead with nice stock market gains. More to the point, there’s no reason to think more risk exists now than in 2011, when stocks crashed 20% and we all survived. What a load of drama queens we’ve become.

Look, even Canadian perma-bear David Madani believes things are overdone. “We think investors are over-reacting and expect oil and other commodity prices to recover some lost ground later this year,” he told clients over the weekend. “Accordingly, we expect the Canadian dollar to end this year higher than it began.” His target for eleven months from now is 75 cents.

Regarding our market, now down 13% since this time last year and swimming in negativity, any bounce in oil will likely have a dramatic impact. Energy stocks have been pounded, money has been fleeing and Chicken Littles like Linda have been cashing out their mutual funds and ETFs at the bottom of the curve. It’s a classic pattern. History tells us what will happen in a world that still runs on oil, where we don’t all own Teslas or run our houses off solar panels.

Then there’s stimulus, most decidedly coming. First the Bank of Canada will cut its rate, taking it close to zero and goosing stocks. Second, the Libs in Ottawa are close to announcing a fat-deficit, mega-spending program which will rustle the loins of the bond market and inject tens of billions into the economy building stuff. Whether you believe this is the role of government or not doesn’t matter. It’s coming, baby.

“Fiscal policy will play a more active role,” adds Madani. “Everything we have seen from the Liberal federal government indicate that they are willing to run larger budget deficits to support a flagging economy.”

By the way, Scotiabank economists had this to say the other day about Canadian banks: “In our view this is the best buying opportunity in the space since February 2009 and we would be aggressively buying the group. We expect a significant rally in bank stocks as the market gets greater clarity on the Canadian economy as it adjust once again to the commodity cycle.”

Hmmm. And she wants to go to cash, when those banks are paying 0.6% interest? Brilliant.

ROBERTS

The argument for thinking RBS published an idiot report builds when you look at the US. There is no recession coming. Not even close. No indication US consumers are rolling over, paying debt instead of buying things – as always happens before a recession takes hold. In fact, more vehicles rolled off dealer lots in 2015 than any other year on record. Preceding every recent US recession car sales went negative for at least eight months, while this time there has not been even one.

In December US airplanes were at near capacity. Consumer confidence levels are at eight-year highs. Last month 292,000 new jobs were created, and more than three million in the past year. The US unemployment has halved since 2010. The federal deficit is at a nine-year low. Bond spreads are at a post-2008 low.

Sure, there are problems. China’s apparently run by idiots. The US Fed will raise rates again in 2016, and corporate earnings will be struggling over the next couple of quarters. But the US economy is 70%-based on consumer spending, and because of cheap gas and lots more jobs, people are feeling pretty cool right now.

So what to do?

Nothing. Especially if you have a balanced portfolio with the kind of asset mix this blog has suggested. It’s already shielded you from the losses most fellow beavers are experiencing, and is well positioned for the eventual snapback.

Stop looking at your portfolio every hour, every day or even every week. It’s irrelevant to your life unless you need the cash later this month. Selling everything, as the RBS chief numbnuts suggested, ensures you lock in temporary losses making them permanent. The financial guys will love it, of course, since they make money on transactions, but it’s an utterly dumb move for most investors. Remember that 73% of the time markets give an annual gain. If you have a balanced portfolio, the odds rise to 90%.

This is not a 10% moment. Even if the Chinese mess up. If Trump gets elected. If oil goes to twenty bucks. If Adele releases another single. Life will carry on, until that day when human nature changes and people stop being motivated by fear or greed.

Now go do something useful.

240 comments ↓

#1 common sense on 01.17.16 at 4:46 pm

Sadly enough dogs in Cuba and very few look healthy.

Maybe bring one back from vacation and have a cool looking unique dog.

Barks in Spanish too.

#2 George B on 01.17.16 at 4:53 pm

It Had Gone Up For So Long, We Needed A Reset

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=9459

#3 Rick on 01.17.16 at 4:55 pm

Oh, my God!!! No post from Garth yesterday! LOL:)
I agree, do nothing.

#4 Brazil ex-pat on 01.17.16 at 4:55 pm

I’m just happy to be making US cash and paying zero taxes here in Brazil.

#5 so true on 01.17.16 at 4:59 pm

My financial adviser has been saying this for months; don’t panic, leave everything alone. It just takes a small measure of discipline and perspective. Anyone ‘selling everything except bonds’ right now deserves the losses they lock in.

#6 WallOfWorry on 01.17.16 at 5:00 pm

Garth,

Can you comment on the Atlanta Fed coming out after markets closed on Friday forecasting Q4 GDP at 0.6%?
If the economy is chugging along, creating jobs etc why is the US failing to see any level of acceptable growth?

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx?panel=1

#7 Smoking Man on 01.17.16 at 5:00 pm

Drama Queens?

I’m the best !!!!!!

To all you ass wipe commies busting my balls yesterday, I’m glad you skip my posts. That’s why you are all poor. and some of my fans are now millionaires.

BOOM I give you my call from June 26th 2015

No one, I mean no one has a better crystal ball than me.

Read it and weep.
……………………………..

#43 Smoking Man on 06.26.15 at 9:17 pm
We all know the duck, can’t spell Lonnie, , is going to get crushed, boc will cut, fed might spike. If they do.

It’s a worthy bet, 50k in a forex account. Buy USDCAD On margin, only 50 contracts..

Welcome to the millionaires club. Next year.

#8 Philburt on 01.17.16 at 5:04 pm

Go to CASH? Idiot…to late…I said that 4-5 months ago when it was appropriate. Before the majority of losses are price nto the market….Yes be apart of the herd and get trampled and whipped out.
When its main stream and your neighbors are telling you to do something its way to late…Like buy GOLD right at the top…

#9 Richard Cranium (formerly Halifax Observer but now in Cowtown) on 01.17.16 at 5:07 pm

New name due to recent move but been on the blog since the beginning. I went to cash with a few hundred g’s last summer and I have avoided about a $30k loss so far. Was that a bad choice Garth? I am trying to time my return but the sidelines seem like the greenest pasture right now.

In other news, I also just bought a house in Alberta that I believed had reached a more realistic price point. Should have waited longer…. :/

So much for your market timing. — Garth

#10 canmex on 01.17.16 at 5:11 pm

@Brazil expat #4

Maybe you should be paying taxes in Brazil as well as in the USofA. Better stay anonymous!

#11 Philburt on 01.17.16 at 5:11 pm

Cash at my 2% was way better then 10-20 losses.
I will be happy to buy back in when the dust settles and it will be the equivalent of capturing a 10-20% gain without the pain of waiting 6-12 months to break even.
Markets go do down 5-8x faster then they go up…

#12 BS on 01.17.16 at 5:13 pm

“I want to go to cash,” Linda told me hours later, her voice rising a note or two every minute, “immediately. This has never happened before – oil, the losses, what’s coming – I can’t take it.”

The irony is people like Linda are the ones who voted in T2. They thought it would be cool to have a hot PM who takes selfies, will oppose pipelines and be a rock star to third world nations by giving them cash to save the planet. She never realized she would be paying for it starting with her portfolio and higher cost of goods and eventually with higher taxes.

#13 Rexx Rock on 01.17.16 at 5:19 pm

Bargain hunting for stocks and etfs for the next few months.Buy small as you never get all in at the bottom.Trade in and out of UVXY and TVIX to hedge a tanking market.I’ll be buying oil etfs between $15 -$25 but small.Don’t you love it when the market tanks!!

#14 Jack Smith on 01.17.16 at 5:20 pm

My spouse and I have made 85 different individual government bond purchases at 5.5% to 6.1% net yields that we bought for $95 to $99 over the 12 years 1997 to 2009 and are now worth,$143 to $149 net market value of commission.

Why would we sell my bonds as we are getting our $58,000 in interest income in tax free income from our cash accounts.

This is because of personal amounts, age amounts, disability amounts, RRIF, pension income amounts and TFSA’s for both of us combined.

We already cashed in most of our RRSP’s over the 6 years and paid modest income taxes, 18% on average.

We only have $80,000 in RRSP’s converted to RRIF’s this year taking out $4,000 which is tax free because of pension income amount I mentioned earlier.

We will be getting our C.P.P, OAS in 2017 which will be $24,000 a year and be around $5,000 a year in income taxes.

We will have $77,000 a year in net income and we will save $22,000 in TFSA’s a year, us, two adult sons and $20,000 a year outside TFSA’s, cash accounts. We are completely debt free.

#15 WUL on 01.17.16 at 5:21 pm

In my hour of darkness
In my time of need
Oh Garth grant me vision
Oh Garth grant me speed

#16 Apocalypse2016 on 01.17.16 at 5:25 pm

Nice words, Garth, but things are far, far worse.

Tomorrow is Blue Monday, the most depressing day of the year.

This year, it will seem like Groundhog Day, endlessly repeating catastrophe as the economies of the world implode.

Phil Connors said it best,

“You want a prediction about the weather, you’re asking the wrong Phil. I’ll give you a winter prediction: It’s gonna be cold, it’s gonna be grey, and it’s gonna last you for the rest of your life. “

#17 Josef on 01.17.16 at 5:25 pm

#3 Rick on 01.17.16 at 4:55 pm

Oh, my God!!! No post from Garth yesterday! LOL:)
I agree, do nothing.
———————————-

Garth is Jewish, He was keeping the Sabbath Holy.

#18 Smoking Man on 01.17.16 at 5:27 pm

On Jun 26 USDCAD was 1.233, How do I know this I bought some.

The risk reward factor was huge in your favor.

Back then 50 Contracts would yield right this second around 1,129,250.00,

Cost of bet around 13.5 K in real money.
………………

Keep skipping my post, plan your rebuttals and name calling at your favorite Starbucks.

Oh and by the way, USDCAD gapped up and just shy of 1.46 on the open today.

Thank You T2 , and Wynne.

#19 Drill Baby Drill on 01.17.16 at 5:31 pm

The markets are rattled by falling oil prices however at some point very soon the markets are going to be very pleased with low oil prices.

#20 Nick on 01.17.16 at 5:32 pm

When one considers the falling RE prices in Alberta (and a few other places), account for the surging USD…. RE prices are shaping up for a 50% discount in cities like Calgary (in USD of course). Once in a lifetime opportunity there…

#21 Harbour on 01.17.16 at 5:37 pm

Have you ever seen someone more in love with himself than smoker, besides DT of course.

LOL… skip

#22 common sense on 01.17.16 at 5:38 pm

Well talking about that CDN $…

Someone at the opening bell dropped it’s value by another .6 of a cent…

WOW.

#23 earlybird on 01.17.16 at 5:39 pm

The first paragraph is fricken hilarious! Great post again…Thanks for the sanity!

#24 The Great Gazoo on 01.17.16 at 5:44 pm

Lots of bluster about Iran bringing on 1/2 million barrels of oil per day overnight then another 1/2 million shortly after. The reality is something much different. Here is a link to an article from the respected Oil & Gas Journal on this very topic. The following excerpt sums up the key message:

“This should deliver an aggregate 400,000 b/d of new supply by the end of 2016,”

http://www.ogj.com/articles/2015/11/apicorp-iranian-output-targets-achievable-but-uncertain.html

The Iranians pushed the message that they could simply turn on the taps and oil would begin to flow overnight. I believe they were posturing within OPEC – but it really just hurt them and other producers. Recent messaging out of Iran is more subdued.

I don’t doubt that oil will fall further since sentiment has gotten so bad. But it simply can’t continue to fall by ~5% per day.

#25 common sense on 01.17.16 at 5:47 pm

Smoking Man

Never been to Starbucks, never plan to..

Just planning to enjoy the next few years happily south with Forex $, and oil short $.

And to any financial advisor who tell you so confidently NOW..

“The end is near in oil price declines…” Salute them and say “Nice work genius. We only have another $30 to get to zero.”

Going UP they make $, going DOWN they make money…NEVER forget that. EVER.

Thanks again.

#26 Smoking Man on 01.17.16 at 5:50 pm

#21 Harbour on 01.17.16 at 5:37 pm
Have you ever seen someone more in love with himself than smoker, besides DT of course.

LOL… skip
……………..

Another liberal idiotic post. You know what separates the wealthy from the poor.

Self-esteem.

That simple. Richard Branson, Trump, and anyone else you can think of who is successful have huge mega ego’s.

Oh ya, forgot about school and socializing, they don’t like big egos.

After all they are not in the business to make Richard Branson’s, They are making employees for him to exploit.

Keep skipping

#27 John on 01.17.16 at 5:53 pm

Somebody’s wrong. Let’s see who’s lining up at the loo this week for a quick preview….

#28 Marcus on 01.17.16 at 5:58 pm

Iran just entered the oil war and Saudi is losing billions.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/12104064/Iran-sanctions-Middle-East-stock-markets-crash-as-Tehran-enters-oil-war.html

#29 Biff on 01.17.16 at 5:59 pm

If anyone knows

#30 The real Kip on 01.17.16 at 5:59 pm

I think I’ll just keep the house.

#31 Biff on 01.17.16 at 6:01 pm

RBS said it was going to be a cataclysmic year. If anyone should know about calamity it’s them. For details see their stock price over the last ten years.

#32 Love my Kia on 01.17.16 at 6:02 pm

I’m staying put and hoping my gold will lift off.

Interesting to see what Iran brings to the equation.

#33 espressobob on 01.17.16 at 6:02 pm

#11 Philburt

Keeping those “core positions”, globally speaking is always prudent, along with a cash position.

Corrections rock! Buy fear.

Contrarians always do.

#34 Suede on 01.17.16 at 6:02 pm

Nothing to see here with the markets people. In fact, the big six cdn banks are starting to look ripe for some accumulation.

Also, YVR SFH will have a gap up record year. Crowds walking into open houses today like crazy.

#35 Fed-up on 01.17.16 at 6:04 pm

“Accordingly, we expect the Canadian dollar to end this year higher than it began.” His target for eleven months from now is 75 cents.

——————————————————————————-

Ummm ya OK. Let’s not start taking this person seriously.

#36 prairiegopher on 01.17.16 at 6:15 pm

Gee Garth I am very disappointed, when I saw your title I thought this post was all about Glam Boy.

#37 Julie K. on 01.17.16 at 6:17 pm

#11 Philburt on 01.17.16 at 5:11 pm ~

What he said.

As an aside, went all cash last few weeks. Not because of fear or greed just random timing of a few major life events. However, in light of all indicators last month or so, going to hold off making any reinvestment decisions.

Call me a Phylissburtha.

F55BL45BC

#38 not 1st on 01.17.16 at 6:17 pm

The dumbass consumer was buying houses right up until the recession in 2006, just like they are doing in canada right now so looking at them as a bellweather is misguided. The may be buying cars on 9 year loans and flying super discounted air fares from oils drop but thats not the real economy.

Ships and trains are parked, companies are not turning over capital and exports are tanking from lack of demand and an inflated dollar. 100k part time santas will be laid off now and that will be reflected in the next jobs report.

#39 Emma Zaun - GreaterFool Unpaid Intern #007 on 01.17.16 at 6:19 pm

Garth, you said we wouldn’t have to put up with this anymore, but it keeps on happening.

Already tonight, 10% of the posts are by or about Smoking Man, in his usual auto-fellatio routine.

Can’t we just delete this idiot for a few days?

You know we can file a human rights complaint……

#40 Mark is my Enabler on 01.17.16 at 6:21 pm

…China’s apparently run by idiots….

Not really. US war on Russia is – cheap oil.
Deprive Russia of money.( like that helped before LOL)
If Russia goes down China is next..they know

You see nobody anymore in the world wants to be milked by US to sustain exuberant lifestyle of North America.
No Japan Not China not even Europe ( they are learning now lesson through euro-QE … basically printing Mario-money)

On the other side, time told us that US always finds way to prevail… but for how long?

#41 Fine wild roasted gonads on 01.17.16 at 6:32 pm

Looks to me like smoking man just roasted a bunch of commies on a stick.

#42 Chris on 01.17.16 at 6:34 pm

A significant bond rate reversal will clearly be the pin to the pop. The RBS fellow has it backwards, sell the bonds now and raise cash. Liquidity issues abound, nothing wrong with going to cash before the crash.

Chris

#43 Nik on 01.17.16 at 6:35 pm

Fantastic blog, thank you!

#44 Sam on 01.17.16 at 6:36 pm

‘Dickhead state’… It was our allies that overthrew their democratically elected government in the 50’s because their choice didn’t cater to our whims. Look it up, we even admit to it. Can you imagine if say China did the same to us. What lengths would we go to to defend our rights from being usurped again?

#45 Worthless fiat on 01.17.16 at 6:39 pm

This guy knows what he is talking about , Canada gets mention in this article .
http://thewealthwatchman.com/uh-oh-the-last-time-this-happened-the-global-financial-system-went-into-freefall/

#46 A box in the Sky on 01.17.16 at 6:43 pm

This article should be the final word on all of these wannabe market timers.

“going to cash” always works out very badly over the long run.

you might get lucky once or twice with your timing, but the more calls you make, the higher likelihood you’re going to end up worse off.

https://theirrelevantinvestor.wordpress.com/2016/01/15/what-if-you-were-the-worlds-best-market-timer/?curator=thereformedbroker&utm_source=thereformedbroker

#47 move along, nothing to see here.... on 01.17.16 at 6:47 pm

“We don’t think this is the end of the bull market. Over time, stocks are supported by economic and earnings growth. We expect the economy to continue to grow modestly, and we think corporate profits will rebound as oil prices and the dollar stabilize over 2016. Don’t let the shaky start to the year undermine your confidence in the longer-term outlook.”

#48 takla on 01.17.16 at 6:51 pm

hopefully the market onslaught cess’s soon but garth you keep advocateing holding/sitting tight
for those of us that need a new Harley for spring can you give us an early heads up on a market turn around…got some ETF cash burning a hole in my pocket
time to diversify..

#49 Freedom First on 01.17.16 at 6:56 pm

Thanks for the pat on the back Garth. Even though I am a humble man and know I am doing everything right.

This is in spite of my being surrounded by an assortment of the mind blowing and sucking Andy’s, Linda’s, Beth’s, Brad’s, Sherry’s, etc. etc. etc……It is always refreshing to come here to read the truth with the added feature of public disclosures of insanity at work. And all delivered with kindness, compassion, wit, and tact. Unlike me.

My goal this year is to become as politically correct as Smoking Man. I know, it’s a tall order. But it beats lofty common sense.

#50 Harbour on 01.17.16 at 7:04 pm

#41 Fine wild roasted gonads on 01.17.16 at 6:32 pm
Looks to me like smoking man just roasted a bunch of commies on a stick.

………………………………………………………………………

Hi stupid

#51 Nanaimo Bar on 01.17.16 at 7:05 pm

BOC rate cut -“although forex markets have been anticipating this)

I think you are right Garth, I sold USD on Friday. Sitting this one out. This has been building for a awhile. Thinking maybe somebody with deep pockets comes along and turns it the other way. Might be a lot of people coming to the party late. They won’t get far though. Still USD long. That is the beauty about currencies. You can get in and out anytime. Just have to be on the right side on the trade. And the other thing, there is no US fed meeting unti March after Jan 27. Nothing anticipated there. Weak hands might buckle waiting for USD to rise. Also refinery maintenance coming. Oil will pop a little maybe. And oil priced in with Iran.

#52 Sebee on 01.17.16 at 7:09 pm

Cubans don’t let animals in. :-)

#53 Metaxa on 01.17.16 at 7:10 pm

You don’t need two scoops of raisins in every box.
That is just advertising.

One scoop is just fine, in every situation.

Additionally to the fine advice above, while you sit and wait why not find where you can earn 2/3rds of what you make now but pay less than 1/2 for it?

My property taxes are under $2,000 per and my mail gets delivered to my door by a person I know.

I don’t grimly grip my steering wheel, chugging down Metamucil to wash down the Xanex while I drive for three hours to get home either.

One scoop is just fine.
Unless you need granite I guess.

#54 Sheane Wallace on 01.17.16 at 7:13 pm

I will take Jeff Gundlach, James Bullard and Bill Gross even the usually notoriously wrong Jim Cramer’s words in this case.

This baby – the US market is going down maybe 30 % from the top, so 20 % more to go. Maybe 40 %. It is nothing unusual for a bear market which is way overdue after 7 years of bull market.

Other markets could sink more.

CA market can show temporarily nominal gains but in constantly declining and soon possibly worthless currency.

Mid term even in nominal terms CA market could go down. It is already 20 % down from the top.

If you keep your money in CA markets predominantly you are at huge risk mid to short term. The real value of your investment as measured in stable currency as the USD/Euro could shrink significantly.

Inexperienced investors could freak out losing 50 % of their investment and might not wait it out.

With oil heading further down (over 7 % today, ‘rebound’ could happen from $ 15 to $ 18 levels) it could stay around and bellow $ 25 for a decade.

I would not advise people to try to pick pennies in front of a steamroller. Wait it out, the bottom will be clearly visible this time.

The Fed will not change their policies at least until S&P hits 1500 or Dow 12000. As Bullard said their role is NOT to prop the stock markets but to maintain proper monetary and fiscal policy and specially the role of USD as reserve currency.

We have had bull market in stocks for quite a while, normally bear market follows and we are ripe and overdue for that.

Maintaining stable portfolio in USD, Euro and CHF, preferreds, some bonds while minimizing stock market exposure is not bad idea for me.

There is not blood on the streets yet. The time to buy will come.

Our macros do no justify .75 but rather .55 cents loonie. Oil exacerbates the problem. We were at .62 in 1999 and I gave a feeling our economy is in much worse state today.

Being optimist and realist are two different things, I would not advise on investing in current conditions, specially if you need some of the money in short to mid term.

The markets could ‘recover’, but you might not have the stomach to wait it out.

No bear market in the U.S. — Garth

#55 Jimmy on 01.17.16 at 7:13 pm

Jimmy says Smoking Man is an astute businessman and a valuable addition to this blog. I am thankful that our host allows him to freely contribute so frequently.
#39 = baaaa… baaaa….

#56 Interstellar Old Yeller on 01.17.16 at 7:14 pm

Now go do something useful.

Guilty as charged, I have been checking the shrinking value of my portfolio daily. I’ve also been reading the comments section here. Oh, the shame!

#57 Worthless fiat on 01.17.16 at 7:14 pm

Its easier to fool people than to convince them they have been fooled;-
Mark Twain .

#58 AB Boxster on 01.17.16 at 7:15 pm

Garth,
I personally think that there are some interesting buys to be made in preferred shares.
Certainly not as part of an overall intelligent investing strategy, but just because some of the current yields seem bizarrely good.

I mean I am looking at a rate reset preferred, with the current features:

1. Annual dividend is currently over 11%
2. Price of the preferred has fallen by 1/2 since January 2015.
3. At the rate reset in 2019, even if the 5 year BOC goes to 0%, the share will pay a dividend of about 8% thereafter.

Perhaps some of these rate resets are vastly oversold due to:

1. Irrational Fear in the markets
2. The fact that Preferred shares were supposed to move inversely to rate, but the opposite is happening with rate resets.
3. Purchasers bailing out due to #1 and #2.

Yes, I know, CPD and XPF are less volatile, more liquid, etc., and are likely good buys right now as well, if they fit in your balance.

But, I think I will be buying a small number of these individual company shares (speculative for sure) just to see what happens to them over the next few years.

If I were one of those who bought these shares at the original price of $25 and for an annual dividend of 5.5%, I would be a little peeved.
Yes, the dividend is good, and rising rates will eventually help the share values as it will with preferred ETF’s.

But the share price has cratered and preferred’s were supposed to be less volatile. Not.

If these shares were sold to investors at $25 with a dividend promise of 5.5% , I’m not sure why they would not be a buy at 1/2 the price and a dividend of 11%.

If the company was a piece of junk, I could see the risk.
A share of a defunct company is worthless, no matter what the dividend.

But it seems many of these shares are now not being priced according to real fundamentals, but mainly due to fear, misunderstanding, and trying to time interest rates.

It will be an interesting experiment.

#59 espressobob on 01.17.16 at 7:20 pm

#13 Rexx Rock

Sounds like a sector play? What’s the point? That’s a big gamble.

XEG was all the hype a short while ago, and I wonder how that is working out over the last decade?

http://www.blackrock.com/ca/individual/en/products/239839/ishares-sptsx-capped-energy-index-etf

Nice chart if your a masochist.

#60 Sheane Wallace on 01.17.16 at 7:21 pm

Junior minors in gold, down 90 % from top might be in for a surprise.

#61 ok.... on 01.17.16 at 7:23 pm

#19 “The markets are rattled by falling oil prices however at some point very soon the markets are going to be very pleased with low oil prices.”

you mean when the FED becomes dovish again, and nothing else will matter?

#25 “Smoking Man, Never been to Starbucks, never plan to..”

find one that has a ‘Clover’ machine, try it, and you’ll change your mind…or not…

#62 Sheane Wallace on 01.17.16 at 7:32 pm

#51 Interstellar Old Yeller on 01.17.16 at 7:14 pm
Now go do something useful.

Guilty as charged, I have been checking the shrinking value of my portfolio daily. I’ve also been reading the comments section here. Oh, the shame!

————————

My portfolio is actually gaining and that is the scary part… In CAD…

——————–
No bear market in the U.S. — Garth

I think bear market is imminent and absolutely normal.

#63 Scully on 01.17.16 at 7:32 pm

Garth,
For all the doomers I went and checked out Cottenelle flushable wet wipes at Costco. $19.58 for 500 wipes or better yet Kirkland brand a buck cheaper for 600 wipes! Works better than regular toilet paper when needed. Also checked out the six pack of tuna – skipjack for $8.50 – good to stock up the bunker. ;)

#64 Sheane Wallace on 01.17.16 at 7:36 pm

There is no recession in US, absolutely, the current market dive is not related to recession but to overpriced equities due to monetary and fiscal policies, aka QE,
now with QE taken out we will see one time repricing to reflect the changing value of money/USD in which equities are measured. 30 or 40 % is the question.

#65 and the band played on.... on 01.17.16 at 7:40 pm

#38 “100k part time santas will be laid off now and that will be reflected in the next jobs report.”

no, it will be ‘seasonally adjusted’ as always….see here for the best explanation of this I’ve seen:

http://nypost.com/2016/01/11/the-breakdown-of-decembers-extremely-misleading-job-report/

there were only 11,000 actual jobs added in the Dec report, the rest of the 292K were added via ‘seasonal adjustment’….

#66 common sense on 01.17.16 at 7:40 pm

# 49 Freedom First

I’m flattered…..

#67 Me Holidays in Kanadastan on 01.17.16 at 7:41 pm

“The markets go up and down, no worries mate! The markets go up and down. Don’t ya know about that, mate?”

The previous sentiment doesn’t carry it for me anymore it seems.
The markets worldwide seem to be hitting one stop-loss trigger after another. Great buying opportunity? Maybe. More declines and more stop-loss triggers to be hit in coming days? Maybe. For myself, I’m only in the market when I perceive things to be more calm then they are right now.

Many Canadians are very vulnerable now. Especially those among us of limited assets, myself included, as we head into retirement. If you believe there is a coming storm it might be wise that folks of age and limited financial strength consider becoming as fully liquid as possible. Like real soon.

Nearing retirement, Wifey and I bailed out of a (somewhat) mortgaged house during 2012 and removed ourselves from the frozen Winterlands du Canada and proceeded with trepidation to South Vancouver Island (Wow! Canada with no snow!!) The Wonderful One found us a perfect rental penthouse (Lots of seeking; rare to find though.) after a very noisy and annoying first year in another apartment rental (gotta start somewhere). Next we bailed on the equity markets in early September 2014. (TSX @ 15,265. Mind-etched.) I felt at the time that the market had been going up way too fast for too long. Put most of those rescued funds into US$. Just a week ago we sent another C$25K into US$ as well. US Dollars have been good to us. Just the same, the stock market was good to us when we were there, but bailing from the market when we did has been positive.

The declining sawtooth lines on the recent market charts don’t bother us at all, nor the declining Canadian dollar. We’ll eventually go back into the markets when things settle down again. Right now it’s “USA TFSA! A-OK!!” (Well at least as much as we have TFSA room to fit.) Our only gains are US/C$ exchange rates. Also we avoided any losses from TSX=15,265.
Note: We convert C/US$ within a bank connected (TD Waterhouse,etc) investment account. Saved on bank account exchange rates. We convert C/US$ inside Waterhouse, but don’t invest. The bank expects you to invest your US money after conversion I guess (Strange that). We leave it alone to sit and gain within an investment TFSA account.

Others with a big asset base have the luxury to carry on, whatever happens in various markets whichever way they choose. A big drop will not change their future lifestyle in any meaningful way. Folks like myself; not so much. I’m watching from the sidelines now, but still mostly seeing daily C$ asset appreciation upon US dollar conversion as we wait for all the pensions to kick in.

To GT who freely puts his time and intellect out there so that we can all benefit. A big thank-you from me. If justice prevails, the Order of Canada for you. (BTW, don’t stay up all night staring at the phone waiting for this call to come through.) But you’ve at least got a lot of us seriously thinking about finance in its multitudinous forms for the first time.

Gracias. We need more Canadians like you. All the Best to you and yours.

#68 Big Dipper on 01.17.16 at 7:50 pm

#44 Sam on 01.17.16 at 6:36 pm

“‘Dickhead state’… It was our allies that overthrew their democratically elected government in the 50’s because their choice didn’t cater to our whims.”

——————————————

Aw, you’re putting nuance, historical perspective, and facts in your comment. Also, note that any reference to the nuclear deal is missing. Can’t have people like you here!

#69 Daisy Mae on 01.17.16 at 7:52 pm

“The coveted Organics Award here at GreaterFool is going this year to Andrew Roberts, credit chief guy at Royal Bank of Scotland, and the dude who single-handedly last week cured millions of people of their constipation. When Andy wrote a headline-grabbing note saying “sell everything except bonds!” you could hear loos flushing from Edinburgh to Oakville as investors suddenly cleared the pipes, then dialed their financial guys.”

**********************

You are so funny! But…it’s not funny. Bad advice, of course, and the masses fall for it time and time again. Some things never change….

#70 George Hutter on 01.17.16 at 7:54 pm

Talk about ‘drama queens’. Our feckless leader has dissolved into a self imposed exile of selfies and the paid for groupies his handlers have chosen to bus in for ‘publicity’.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/michael-den-tandt-where-is-the-resolve-to-fight-back-liberal-governments-silence-on-terrorism-is-deafening

This countries in big trouble both domestically and internationally and yet, all we get is cutsey pics? Revolution is brewing if the number of media articles asking the same question…”Where is Justin on the issues?”

It seems our frightened little drama teacher is out of his depth.

#71 A box in the Sky on 01.17.16 at 7:55 pm

#54 Sheane Wallace on 01.17.16 at 7:13 pm

I will take Jeff Gundlach, James Bullard and Bill Gross even the usually notoriously wrong Jim Cramer’s words in this case.

This baby – the US market is going down maybe 30 % from the top, so 20 % more to go. Maybe 40 %. It is nothing unusual for a bear market which is way overdue after 7 years of bull market.

————————————

this is why doomers are poor.

If it goes down 20% you won’t buy because you’ll say it’s going to go down 30%

If it goes down 30% you won’t buy because you’ll say it’s going to go down 40%

If it goes down 40% you won’t buy because you’ll say it’s going to go down 50%

If it goes down 50% you won’t buy because you’ll say it’s going to ZERO

By the way, Options on SPY would imply the odds of the S&P losing 40% from here over the next 1 year to be less than 5%.

#72 Fine wild roasted gonads on 01.17.16 at 7:55 pm

#50 Harbour on 01.17.16 at 7:04 pm
#41 Fine wild roasted gonads on 01.17.16 at 6:32 pm
Looks to me like smoking man just roasted a bunch of commies on a stick.

………………………………………………………………………

Hi stupid


Is that it? Come now dude, surely you can do better than that. That was remarkably unimaginative. Put yer heart into it.

#73 Doug t on 01.17.16 at 8:02 pm

History has a way of repeating itself – we are headed to an economic depression world wide – it’s been building for years slowly but it eventually will happen – we are due for a correction that’s all – deal with it

Nope. No depression. Put feel free to have one on your own. — Garth

#74 kommykim on 01.17.16 at 8:07 pm

RE:

#58 AB Boxster on 01.17.16 at 7:15 pm
I mean I am looking at a rate reset preferred, with the current features:
1. Annual dividend is currently over 11%

I’ll bet that one doesn’t even have a rating for credit worthiness. You get paid for risk.

#75 AfterTheHouseSold on 01.17.16 at 8:11 pm

#15 WUL
“In my hour of darkness…”
Dear friend in the frozen north, maybe this will cheer you up. (hope I have posted right links, as have hoisted a few)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOMQKAFMuJ8&index=43&list=PLMsXhK9jKOTcfNQh3HvK2UZvqvpsGVDr0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKkslvYtc-c&index=29&list=PLMsXhK9jKOTcfNQh3HvK2UZvqvpsGVDr0

#76 Leverage on 01.17.16 at 8:14 pm

Re: FOREX trading and Smoking Man stairway to heaven.

Be careful with leverage. I understand you are well intended, SM, but leverage is a widow maker. 50 contracts mean $500 per pip. 100 pips wipe a 50k account instantly. What goes up can come down. Tonight open 50 pips up could have been 50 pips down.

#77 Ontario's Left Coast on 01.17.16 at 8:15 pm

Best advice ever, Garth.

#78 For those about to flop... on 01.17.16 at 8:15 pm

Freedom First ,get married and then if she starts to annoy you just do this…

M41BC

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/488312/Bloke-leaves-wife-at-petrol-station-drives-60-miles-without-realising-awkward-viral-funny

#79 Millmech on 01.17.16 at 8:22 pm

#48 Takla
You on HBC.

#80 Sheane Wallace on 01.17.16 at 8:23 pm

#71 A box in the Sky on 01.17.16 at 7:55 pm
#54 Sheane Wallace on 01.17.16 at 7:13 pm

I will take Jeff Gundlach, James Bullard and Bill Gross even the usually notoriously wrong Jim Cramer’s words in this case.

This baby – the US market is going down maybe 30 % from the top, so 20 % more to go. Maybe 40 %. It is nothing unusual for a bear market which is way overdue after 7 years of bull market.

————————————

this is why doomers are poor.

If it goes down 20% you won’t buy because you’ll say it’s going to go down 30%

If it goes down 30% you won’t buy because you’ll say it’s going to go down 40%

If it goes down 40% you won’t buy because you’ll say it’s going to go down 50%

If it goes down 50% you won’t buy because you’ll say it’s going to ZERO

By the way, Options on SPY would imply the odds of the S&P losing 40% from here over the next 1 year to be less than 5%.

—————————

Rejecting the notion of bear markets when you clearly see one is dangerous to one’s financial wealth.
If you qualify Bill Gross or Jeff Gundlach and specially Jim Cramer as doomers then you are on the wrong planet.

Japan, EU, Canada are officially in bear markets, China is moving around – above and bellow the 20 % mark.

Of course I won’t see you face when the markets decline by over 25-30 % which is absolutely normal, even insufficient for a meaningful correction and has nothing ‘doom’-ish in it.

Markets will need juice to revert the trend and that juice would be clearly recognizable as new form of monetary of fiscal policy, e.g. tax cuts in US.

Averaging back to the markets in the -35 %-25 % range seems logical to me.

#81 Ponzius Pilatus on 01.17.16 at 8:23 pm

Garth,
With the upcoming Chinese New Year being the Year of the Monkey, I’d suggest you build up a library of funny monkey pictures.
Should not be to hard to get.
By the way, the Drama Queen dog looks a lot like a dragon that the Chinese use to usher in the CNY.
A

#82 Freeman on 01.17.16 at 8:24 pm

YUP, CANADIANS ARE PANICKING AND SELLING STOCKS:

“Market Meltdown Rattles Canadian Investors, Panic Sets In” :

http://calgaryherald.com/business/energy/market-meltdown-rattles-investors

(You know, often the best time to buy is when everyone else is selling.)

#83 Smoking Man on 01.17.16 at 8:24 pm

#39 Emma Zaun – GreaterFool Unpaid Intern #007 on 01.17.16 at 6:19 pm
Garth, you said we wouldn’t have to put up with this anymore, but it keeps on happening.

Already tonight, 10% of the posts are by or about Smoking Man, in his usual auto-fellatio routine.

Can’t we just delete this idiot for a few days?

You know we can file a human rights complaint……
…………………

I’m puzzled ? Is it the Vegan diet that totally distorts the minds of radical liberal Urbanites. Eat a some rare steak and shake yourself out of the madness.

Are you jealous of my popularity? my wealth? Probably my good looks.

Those that hunt for themselves or want to learn to hunt tend to appreciate my posts.

Those that spent their entire lives as prey and have no intention of learning another way have issues with them.

Hate all you wan’t

#84 Big Dipper on 01.17.16 at 8:26 pm

“#26 Smoking Man on 01.17.16 at 5:50 pm

#21 Harbour on 01.17.16 at 5:37 pm
Have you ever seen someone more in love with himself than smoker, besides DT of course.

LOL… skip
……………..

Another liberal idiotic post. You know what separates the wealthy from the poor.

Self-esteem.

That simple. Richard Branson, Trump, and anyone else you can think of who is successful have huge mega ego’s.”

———————————————–

With your ongoing comments on feminization, I’m surprised the Fembos have not got you and are now using you head as a door stop.

This blog is about conservative investing. Maybe you missed that. Your macho bs on currency speculation might tempt some the attendant weaker minds who understand dick about the extreme risk they’ll be taking. (i.e losing their initial investments and much more).

Successful speculators never brag about their current contract positions. Your language about the subject is weak. You never mention contract expiry dates and your margin numbers our out to lunch. Why don’t you pyramid your positions? Are you just playing “what if” with funny money?

Anybody who’ll base their contract decisions on the politicians they loathe, will crash and burn. I’ll call BS on your winnings!

#85 Smoking Man on 01.17.16 at 8:26 pm

#76 Leverage on 01.17.16 at 8:14 pm
Re: FOREX trading and Smoking Man stairway to heaven.

Be careful with leverage. I understand you are well intended, SM, but leverage is a widow maker. 50 contracts mean $500 per pip. 100 pips wipe a 50k account instantly. What goes up can come down. Tonight open 50 pips up could have been 50 pips down.
…..

Agreed, entry point is critical. Jun 26 2015 was a pretty good entry, don’t you aggree. USDCAD Never went below that.

#86 BG on 01.17.16 at 8:29 pm

I just received 29k, available to invest right now in my balanced portfolio, and I’m not sure whether I should go all in this Tuesday or go to Cuba with my dog this week only to invest everything next Monday.

#87 Jimmy on 01.17.16 at 8:29 pm

Sure, markets will bounce back and this shows little signs of a classic bear market, but how do you explain the fact that we’ve had the worst start to a year in history, especially when this is traditionally one of the strongest times for markets?

Oil. — Garth

#88 Chancouver on 01.17.16 at 8:30 pm

Re #11 IF you wait to buyback when “the dust settles” you are too late. Buy the time the situation stabilizes, markets have always already rebounded.

#89 Brazil ex-pat on 01.17.16 at 8:34 pm

#10 canmex on 01.17.16 at 5:11 pm
@Brazil expat #4

Maybe you should be paying taxes in Brazil as well as in the USofA. Better stay anonymous

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I don’t work for a Brazilian company I just live in Brazil. IT is awesome isn’t it?

#90 Gulf Breeze on 01.17.16 at 8:35 pm

I sold my townhouse in the SW, for a number of reasons, none having to do with capitalizing on the rising US dollar — though I hoped to break even with a slight bump up in Yankee buck strength.

Luckily, I still have the funds in US dollar account and will see a 40% appreciation over what I paid when Cad/U.S dollars were near par.

Gold also doing very well, in Canadian dollars — acting as a hedge and attracting some safe haven money, pulled out of markets. I sold mine at 1480., but bought in at an average of 750.00, Canadian. Tonight it is around 1600. Canadian. That’s down only just over 200.00 from it’s 2011 peak, in Canadian funds. The important thing to do, with any asset, is to check it’s value in your own currency, not in the usual American dollar value. This gives a negative and false reading, for Canadians. It’s as disingenuous as declaring the value in Nigerian currency, to make gold appear to be crazy expensive.

There is terrific upside potential for gold right now. I would hardly sink every dime into it, but certainly acquire some, and will — the next time I go to the bank. It IS a solid hedge against inflation. Look at a ten year gold chart, in Canadian funds. Then ask yourself, what might happen in the future. This isn’t doomer talk, it’s just sensible.

I just bought another place in a recreational part of Southern B.C. and paid cash. After 8 years of decline, these areas are, “on fire”. While I was watching prices, I noted the shift, not month by month, but in one week.

The bubbly areas may see tepid growth or declines, but places that have been depressed in Southern B.C., near ocean are very active right now. Lots of techie families moving there. Americans buying second homes for cheaper than San Juan island prices. Asians buying commercial property. Europeans, too. Vancouver remains horribly overpriced, even at half the price, but rural recreational that’s well serviced and not far from civilization is strong. A home in these areas is twice the house for a third or less the price.

#91 Drama queens - Realties.ca on 01.17.16 at 8:37 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/01/17/drama-queens/ […]

#92 Nanaimo Bar on 01.17.16 at 8:38 pm

One red flag I noticed without reading or understanding the article is that it is written by the Arab Petroleum Investments Corp. so probably they are marketing to potential clients to invest in the Iran Oilfield.

On their website it states, “Apicorp was created by the Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) in 1975 as a commercially-focused financial institution that can help provide nuanced and efficient financing options to the Arab energy industry.”

Organization is spelt wrong in the above, so credibility goes down a little.

Yes, like Garth mentioned, oil can’t go down forever. At some point it will stabilize. However, there is no computer program that measures human emotion. If there was, no market would be oversold or overbought.

I main reason that I come here is that Garth does not give his advice to solicit the buying or selling securities of any type. Garth gives me a great market commentary that is unbiased. He point my ship in the right direction. That is a hard thing to find on the Internet. For my technical research on the oil industry, I use a 30 year former oil trader for a technical analysis. On his site he states. “Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, or other information contained on this website or other promotional material is provided as general market commentary, and does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities of any type.”

I guess what I’m trying to say, is that we are all here because we are all not there.

You have to careful who listens to on the Internet. With ClickBait ads, the Internet can tell you what you just what to hear. Not the truth.

#93 Soothsayer on 01.17.16 at 8:39 pm

Caesar, Caesar…Beware the Ides of March!!!!

#94 Irannumberonerussianumberoneamericahatu on 01.17.16 at 8:42 pm

Now that Iran can openly sell oil, you think they will accept lower and lower prices? More poopoop will hit the middle east thanks to their underhanded ways….oil to rise sooner than we all think…. all the bad already priced in

#95 lee on 01.17.16 at 8:44 pm

Doug T,

How so?

#96 BC_Doc on 01.17.16 at 8:45 pm

“Now go do something useful.”

Some men buy their wives jewelry or fancy cars. On Friday, I bought my wife a thousand shares of VXC. The day before, I bought her 500 shares. It’s scary out there in the equity and commodity markets– I’ve never gone wrong buying when the world as we know it appears to be falling apart.

My position is long outside of Canada. I still can’t get myself to pinch my nose and buy Canada (VCN). Stormy seas ahead for Canada– first energy, then real estate anf financials. That doesn’t leave much left.

#97 Gulf Breeze on 01.17.16 at 8:45 pm

Smoking Man,

You know what separates big egos and normal egos? Pathologies….and prison bars, if we’re lucky.

Your thundering, hairy chest pounding is curious. Why? Somebody have a big but fragile ego?

#98 Dominoes Lining Up on 01.17.16 at 8:47 pm

I think the big retail domino is starting to topple over in Canada. Everywhere I go, malls and stores seem almost empty unless they have some kind of ridiculous sale on.

Then I read this. Yikes. Goodwill stores had an emergency closure today.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/goodwill-gta-lockout-1.3407732

It’s not at all certain if any of these stores might re-open as there is a “cash flow crisis”. Lots of donated stuff, just no buyers.

Strangely, the optics of this makes me a lot more nervous about our economy than Target closing a year ago.

#99 espressobob on 01.17.16 at 8:48 pm

#54 Sheane Wallace

Do yourself some justice and hire a pro.

Analysis leads to paralysis.

#100 common sense on 01.17.16 at 8:48 pm

For those wondering about being over leveraged on Forex or anywhere…

Ever heard of this funny new fangled thing called a STOP LOSS?

Just curious…

#101 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 01.17.16 at 8:49 pm

Ideally Garth is correct and oil plummets further. It is already the largest decline in history (>72%) from peak to now. The faster it falls the quicker it will rebound!

As for the consumer, Garth is incorrect. Outside of auto sales (think subprime auto) the consumer in the US sucks and has not opened the wallet, especially with the Gas “dividend”. No, they are saving and final sales in 2015 was meagre.

In fact, the FED made the same mistake in ’37, and auto sales were great in ’36. They raised rates ito a recession.

Don’t take my word, or Garth’s. Take John Hussman’s:

He has more cred than most.

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc160118.htm

#102 Sheane Wallace on 01.17.16 at 8:49 pm

#87 Jimmy on 01.17.16 at 8:29 pm
Sure, markets will bounce back and this shows little signs of a classic bear market, but how do you explain the fact that we’ve had the worst start to a year in history, especially when this is traditionally one of the strongest times for markets?

USD policy changes and the end of easing. The oil slump is just one of the symptoms, not the reason.

#103 Gulf Breeze on 01.17.16 at 8:55 pm

#94 whateveryournameis! Lol

As long as OPEC is battling internally for market share, Saudi Arabia being the worst offender, Iran will have to accept what it is being offered in a competitive market. It’s a buyer’s market. I can sit back and fold my arms and ‘not accept’ what the market will bear for a house, too. But if I have to sell and the market is glutted I am not in control.

#104 Sheane Wallace on 01.17.16 at 8:55 pm

#100 common sense on 01.17.16 at 8:48 pm
For those wondering about being over leveraged on Forex or anywhere…

Ever heard of this funny new fangled thing called a STOP LOSS?

Just curious…
—————————————
STOP loss in FOREX futures/options?

What are you smoking? Pass it around.

#105 Smoking Man on 01.17.16 at 8:56 pm

#84 Big Dipper on 01.17.16 at 8:26 pm
“#26 Smoking Man on 01.17.16 at 5:50 pm

#21 Harbour on 01.17.16 at 5:37 pm
Have you ever seen someone more in love with himself than smoker, besides DT of course.

LOL… skip
……………..

Another liberal idiotic post. You know what separates the wealthy from the poor.

Self-esteem.

That simple. Richard Branson, Trump, and anyone else you can think of who is successful have huge mega ego’s.”

———————————————–

With your ongoing comments on feminization, I’m surprised the Fembos have not got you and are now using you head as a door stop.

This blog is about conservative investing. Maybe you missed that. Your macho bs on currency speculation might tempt some the attendant weaker minds who understand dick about the extreme risk they’ll be taking. (i.e losing their initial investments and much more).

Successful speculators never brag about their current contract positions. Your language about the subject is weak. You never mention contract expiry dates and your margin numbers our out to lunch. Why don’t you pyramid your positions? Are you just playing “what if” with funny money?

Anybody who’ll base their contract decisions on the politicians they loathe, will crash and burn. I’ll call BS on your winnings!
………………….

“You never mention contract expiry dates”

They are call CFD’S contracts for difference. (Guess your liberal teachers never taught you about derivatives, how could they? , clueless)

Pure Gambling, your the one that don’t know shit.

My claim to 1250 CFD’s is 100 % bull shit. You called that one right. It’s a hell of a lot higher.

But I see the future, and have built a wall around that bet. That I will never share publicly or privately without serious encryption, catch me if you can. Those bets were done in JAN go find my posts.

“Successful speculators never brag about their current contract positions.” I agree with you on that.

I’m more of a Successful bat shit crazy drunken Alien from Nectonite.

Call bull shit on that one and I’ll arrange a flyby.

#106 Cloudy on 01.17.16 at 8:56 pm

Garth,

I know you don’t say that there will [for sure] be a large crash in housing, but for the sake of argument lets say there is a sizeable and fairly rapid correction, or even a small crash. What do you think the goverment’s response would be?

This was the topic on our walk tonight (wife, dog and baby). My wife, who wants us to quit renting a buy a place, seems to think the government would go to great lengths to protect housing and people who got in over their heads – even go as far as to forgive portions of debt through free gov’t money. I feel there isn’t a whole lot they could do other than make allowances for longer mortgage amortizations, periods of interest only payments or something that just spreads the pain out.

Does your wife also believe in unicorns? — Garth

#107 rawdiswar on 01.17.16 at 8:56 pm

#84 Big Dipper

You mad bro?

Your language about the subject sounds like someone who has read all about forex in books but never had the set of stones to do it for themselves.

You can’t stand it that other people are smarter than you and have the stats to back it up so you resort to trying to belittle someone else. Pathetic really.

That’s ok, if I knew other people were making mad cash on something I was afraid to do, I’d probably be upset too.

#108 Sheane Wallace on 01.17.16 at 8:57 pm

#99 espressobob on 01.17.16 at 8:48 pm
#54 Sheane Wallace

Do yourself some justice and hire a pro.

Analysis leads to paralysis.
——————-
I did hire a pro for my portfolio, in fact one of the best.

Thanks for the advice.

#109 Ole Doberman on 01.17.16 at 8:57 pm

Gartho what about the US medical and pension social system – too much liability and debt there, it will be the catalyst to destroy the country.

#110 Chris on 01.17.16 at 8:58 pm

The market has corrected in a meaningful and significant way 5 times in the past 4 decades.

Each time illiquidity become an eventuality for various instruments/assets.

Cash is the most important part of a portfolio during illiquidity events.

Apportioning a portion of a portfolio to cash is purdent & a viable strategy as in the “long term” illiquidity events are inevitable.

Chris

This is no illiquidity event. — Garth

#111 Sheane Wallace on 01.17.16 at 9:02 pm

#100 common sense on 01.17.16 at 8:48 pm

just teasing you.. :)

#112 common sense on 01.17.16 at 9:06 pm

#104 Shane Wallace

Yes..100% Dead serious..

#113 common sense on 01.17.16 at 9:08 pm

#111 Shane Wallace

You GD S.O.B. !!! Got me!

Pick on someone else’s freedom.

:)

#114 espressobob on 01.17.16 at 9:10 pm

#108 Sheane Wallace

Maybe you have a put or call in foresight based on the advice of your financial advisor?

This would be most insightful?

#115 Ole Doberman on 01.17.16 at 9:16 pm

I remember when we use to predict that Garth would be the next Peter Schiff calling for RE to decline.

So lets see here:

Peter Schiff:

RE – right
USD – wrong
US stock mkts – wrong
Gold – wrong

Garth Turner:

RE – eventually will be right
USD – right
US Stocks – right
Gold – right

Conclusion – it’s an insult to Garth to call him the next Peter Schiff – lol!

Gartho is the best out there.

#116 slick on 01.17.16 at 9:16 pm

TRI GUY
#285 from Jan.15
You paid $570K for the house in 2008
still owe $415 K now.
assuming 10% down, you have paid off$98K in 7 years.
That is about $14K/year or a little over $1100 per month.
What the hell have you been doing with interest rates about 3-4%???
You are damned lucky that house prices have done the heavy lifting for you.

good luck
slick

#117 Frank on 01.17.16 at 9:18 pm

So much conflicting advice here.

Madani, the guy who’s called for a housing bubble crash for years now says it’s all okay. Why believe a single prediction he makes?

This blog is all about housing so if the bottom is coming shortly why not load up on Calgary real estate?

#118 Smoking Man on 01.17.16 at 9:29 pm

#97 Gulf Breeze on 01.17.16 at 8:45 pm
Smoking Man,

You know what separates big egos and normal egos? Pathologies….and prison bars, if we’re lucky.

Your thundering, hairy chest pounding is curious. Why? Somebody have a big but fragile ego?
….

Bit to hammered on a sunday night to discern if that was a compliment or insult.

Bottom line, any hostility you feel toward me was your educated slave training.

I can save you if you let me. Spread them.

Your ears, shit that’s wrong, you can’t hear this.

Your eyes, go cross eyed for a bit, the shit you will see.

#119 Big Dipper on 01.17.16 at 9:29 pm

#107 rawdiswar on 01.17.16 at 8:56 pm

#84 Big Dipper

“You mad bro?

Your language about the subject sounds like someone who has read all about forex in books but never had the set of stones to do it for themselves.

You can’t stand it that other people are smarter than you and have the stats to back it up so you resort to trying to belittle someone else. Pathetic really.”

——————————————

Nah, I’m long retired and did this shit long before you existed. Did well, but always with $$ I could lose. Admittedly before CFD’s were invented. Different name same principles.

My concern is that pathetic folks like you want to make some easy money and get slaughtered. A-holes like smoked ham never talks about their losses. Percentage of winners is bleak. But do your own thing.

Waiting for Smoked Ham to show with my fly swatter. Looking forward to shove his plasma gun where the sun don’t shine.

#120 Yuus bin Haad on 01.17.16 at 9:33 pm

Never mind the Okefenokee swamp; we’re living in a New Era surreal movie.

Luis Buñuel on developing the script for Un Chien Andalou (1929):

“No idea or image that might lend itself to a rational explanation of any kind would be accepted.”

#121 AB Boxster on 01.17.16 at 9:37 pm

# 74 KommyKim
I’ll bet that one doesn’t even have a rating for credit worthiness. You get paid for risk.
————————————–
And you would be wrong.
Not the top rating but certainly not the lowest.
This item is also held in CPD and ZPR and the company common stock gets a 5 star morningstar (not that this is a great indicator).

I agree that risk and return should be correlated.
But some of these prices seem out of whack due to other factors.

#122 Smoking Man on 01.17.16 at 9:43 pm

#119 Big Dipper on 01.17.16 at 9:29 pm
#107 rawdiswar on 01.17.16 at 8:56 pm

#84 Big Dipper

“You mad bro?

Your language about the subject sounds like someone who has read all about forex in books but never had the set of stones to do it for themselves.

You can’t stand it that other people are smarter than you and have the stats to back it up so you resort to trying to belittle someone else. Pathetic really.”

——————————————

Nah, I’m long retired and did this shit long before you existed. Did well, but always with $$ I could lose. Admittedly before CFD’s were invented. Different name same principles.

My concern is that pathetic folks like you want to make some easy money and get slaughtered. A-holes like smoked ham never talks about their losses. Percentage of winners is bleak. But do your own thing.

Waiting for Smoked Ham to show with my fly swatter. Looking forward to shove his plasma gun where the sun don’t shine.
………………

Cause you were not smart enough to succeed, everyone else that attempts what you failed at is a loser.

Ok

#123 Dr. Bill Admanson on 01.17.16 at 9:43 pm

Tomorrow will be a good chance to buy a few % worth on weakness..add slowly and enjoy adding on this heavy heavy weakness. This is what holding onto all those MacDonalds (Benjamins) was for. Times like these! Why do nothin’ when you can Bayh Bayh Bayh! But in very small amounts babayh!

#124 Darren on 01.17.16 at 9:43 pm

Stock Market Sell-Offs Without a Recession

Note the returns following sell-offs in the second chart….

http://awealthofcommonsense.com/stock-market-sell-offs-without-a-recession/

#125 amazon girl on 01.17.16 at 9:47 pm

Amazon girl @39
Can’t we just delete this idiot for a few days?
what is a idiot? The one can learn ?The one can listen?
or the one can be happy for the joy of others?
Amazon [email protected] man
June 26 25k invested first time on forex
felt like I lost my mind ,just listened to a man I never
met. it took a few days to recover. then I became a fan 51.I am greatfull for what I learn here.
and for the people who contribute to this blog.
WAY TO GO SMOKING MAN THANKS TO YOU .

#126 A box in the Sky on 01.17.16 at 9:47 pm

#80 Sheane Wallace on 01.17.16 at 8:23 pm

Of course I won’t see you face when the markets decline by over 25-30 % which is absolutely normal, even insufficient for a meaningful correction and has nothing ‘doom’-ish in it.

Averaging back to the markets in the -35 %-25 % range seems logical to me.

————————————-

I’m not going anywhere big boy. I certainly am not arrogant enough to think that I have an edge over the market and am able to time when to buy and sell, therefore I stay invested at all times.

If it goes down 30% so be it. It happens all the time and life goes on.

You’re the one that has to figure out when to buy back in. You’ll probably screw it up.

http://thereformedbroker.com/2016/01/10/the-farce-awakens/?curator=thereformedbroker&utm_source=thereformedbroker

http://awealthofcommonsense.com/to-win-you-have-to-be-willing-to-lose/

#127 espressobob on 01.17.16 at 9:48 pm

ZPR & CPD

Lets take a look at this asset class, say in ten years and wonder why it is not a strong buy at current price?

Short term thinking comes to mind.

#128 Arfmooocat on 01.17.16 at 9:48 pm

Beautiful historic home on one acre for 430K in Indiana

https://www.yahoo.com/realestate/photos-seriously-cool-mccray-mansion-100841536/photo-the-home-built-for-elmer-1452852530537.html

Yet in Alberta with a 6.5% unemployment rate we pay that much for a match box on a 50′ lot

#129 Smoking Man on 01.17.16 at 9:59 pm

#125 amazon girl on 01.17.16 at 9:47 pm
Amazon girl @39
Can’t we just delete this idiot for a few days?
what is a idiot? The one can learn ?The one can listen?
or the one can be happy for the joy of others?
Amazon [email protected] man
June 26 25k invested first time on forex
felt like I lost my mind ,just listened to a man I never
met. it took a few days to recover. then I became a fan 51.I am greatfull for what I learn here.
and for the people who contribute to this blog.
WAY TO GO SMOKING MAN THANKS TO YOU .

If my teeth were not so bad, I’d French kiss you.. but then we got to deal with Sherly Valentine.

Ill stick with the wife, she’s use to them.

#130 Sheane Wallace on 01.17.16 at 10:09 pm

No bread? Let them eat cake (cabbage)

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/01/17/why-canadians-need-not-fret-over-the-low-loonie-walkom.html

the ‘simple solutions’ that Poloz can not see:

Yes, imported cauliflower may now cost $8 a head. But there is relatively simple solution: Don’t buy cauliflower. Eat cabbage instead.

In the meantime, the best way for Ottawa to ease the adjustment back to a low-loonie world is to do what it promised.

First, borrow to spend. Business isn’t investing enough yet to end the slump. Government has to take up the slack.

More to the point, there are useful public works projects that should be built, as well as social needs, such as child and long-term care, that remain unmet.

Second, take a hard, critical look at trade deals such as the as-yet unratified trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
Most of these pacts are predicated upon the idea that Canada will continue to focus on raw material exports. The TPP in particular would make it harder for Canadian firms to challenge the technology monopoly of existing U.S. pharmaceutical giants.

Eventually, the loonie will rise again as Canadian non-oil exports pick up. (i.e. NEVER)

With encouragement, it will stabilize at its so-called purchasing power parity rate of about 81 cents (U.S.) — low enough to encourage exports, high enough to allow the occasional trip south.

In the meantime, as we ponder ways to escape the staple trap, enjoy your cabbage. Prepared properly, it can be quite tasty.

/stupidity off.

…………………………..

#131 Sheane Wallace on 01.17.16 at 10:15 pm

#126 A box in the Sky

If you are cool enough, so market decline of 30 % does not deserve your attention then why do we worry about paltry 10-15 % potential Canadian housing market decline and why do we have this blog at all?

It will recover, don’t worry, eventually…

Just ride it on along with the decline of the CAD and the stock market.

I am not picking on you, just replying and trying (hard) to make sense.

#132 Doug t on 01.17.16 at 10:19 pm

#95 Lee

Garth gave me a “nope” on my suggestion which is just a brush off – societies always go through corrective measures in order to purge – the world has been growing massive debt and living on credit for far too long – it’s time to purge itself – might take a little time but it has started already

What did you not understand about no? This is hardly a purge. — Garth

#133 will on 01.17.16 at 10:31 pm

The market is down 7.19% this year. I am down 3.6%. I guess that means I’m beating the market.

#134 Sideshow Rob on 01.17.16 at 10:33 pm

Gulf Breeze

“You know what separates big egos and normal egos? Pathologies….and prison bars, if we’re lucky.”

/////////////////////////////////

Know what else separates big egos from small egos? About 6 zeroes in the old net worth.

#135 TRT on 01.17.16 at 10:41 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/world/richest-62-people-own-same-as-half-worlds-population-oxfam-davos-1.3408049#commentwrapper

Time for wealth taxes to supplant income taxes.

Biggest scam is low capital gains/dividends tax rates. Make them equal to income taxes for a start.

Wake up sheep!?!?!?

You are foolish and naive. Taxing investment capital more harshly in Canada will simply drive it elsewhere, along with your job (which it funds). Taxation on working capital is less because the owners of it assume a level of risk that employees or savers would never stomach. — Garth

#136 David on 01.17.16 at 10:47 pm

Talking about history. RBS was a 300 year old institution that didn’t make to 301 years after the 2008 recession. The largest financial collapse in British history.
For students of economic history the sell everything made a big splash by market technician Joe Granville in 1981. That was an era when having a programmable HP calculator with the Reverse Polish Notation algorithm was de rigeur for all aspiring MBA students. Paul Volcker had raised the US Feds Fund Rate from 11% to 21% in about the space of 5 months. Even at 21% interest rates investors in debt instruments wanted even better yields. Junk bond debt grew from investor novelty to industry led my Mike Milliken. S&L’s like Vernon (aka Vermin) in rural Texas were hocking premium rates on jumbo CDs during the oil collapse.
It’s tough to tell people to keep their heads when everyone else is running for the exits.
Garth may well be right about the Drama Queens. They usually have exaggerated responses to everyday occurrences.

#137 kommykim on 01.17.16 at 10:47 pm

RE:

#121 AB Boxster on 01.17.16 at 9:37 pm
# 74 KommyKim
I’ll bet that one doesn’t even have a rating for credit worthiness. You get paid for risk.
————————————–
And you would be wrong

What’s the ticker?

#138 45north on 01.17.16 at 10:48 pm

Cloudy: My wife, who wants us to quit renting a buy a place, seems to think the government would go to great lengths to protect housing and people who got in over their heads – even go as far as to forgive portions of debt through free gov’t money. I feel there isn’t a whole lot they could do other than make allowances for longer mortgage amortizations, periods of interest only payments or something that just spreads the pain out.

your wife is right In the US, the government has put in place mortgage modification programs. Here’s one:

https://www.makinghomeaffordable.gov/steps/pages/step-2-program-hamp.aspx

and you’re right: mostly the mortgage modification programs just kick the can down the road. Mark Hanson writes about them. In fact when considering the depth and breadth of knowledge and experience on the internet, it’s a veritable ocean.

There will never be a mortgage modification in program any more than we will ever see deductible mortgage interest. The delusion continues. — Garth

#139 JSS on 01.17.16 at 10:54 pm

Guess who bought cauliflower today at Superstore for $5.99…

Gonna make aloo gobhi recipe tonight. Yum yum.

#140 JSS on 01.17.16 at 10:57 pm

…in addition to the cauliflower, I also bought some BAnk Nova Scotia, and Fortis common shares last Friday.

If no one wants, I’ll take some. Excuse my reach.

#141 espressobob on 01.17.16 at 10:57 pm

Why do individuals invest? As if the major indices go up in a straight line? But that’s the expectations most demand. Any wonder why most panic on the downside?

The bulls & the bears, nothing new there. It’s a tug of war. Currently the bears are feasting. What’s the problem? The bulls will have their turn.

Emotional mindsets are generally juxtaposed with investors as the pendulum swings. Typical! It works every time! Selling on downside sucks!

On the other hand, Globally diversified & balanced investors could not give a rats ass one way or the other how the markets move. Discard the emotional baggage.

Now positive returns are possible.

After reading Garths blog for too long, I had to say something based on history.

#142 Ronaldo on 01.17.16 at 11:00 pm

More on Calgary RE

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/calgary/calgary-real-estate-forecast-creb-sales-2016-prices-1.3401999

#143 AB Boxster on 01.17.16 at 11:18 pm

#137 KommyKim
—————–
TA – common
TA.PR.J preferred

#144 45north on 01.17.16 at 11:23 pm

There will never be a mortgage modification in program any more than we will ever see deductible mortgage interest. The delusion continues. — Garth

Personally I am against the idea of mortgage modification programs but I argue that the programs in the US are the result of political pressure and it’s only reasonable to assume that we would have the same kind of pressure here.

If we are not to have them then it seems to me that the correction in Canada will be harsher and more severe than it was in the US. It also seems to me that the banks will be the agents of this harshness. Ready or not.

#145 Shirley Valentine on 01.17.16 at 11:31 pm

#129 Smoking Man on 01.17.16 at 9:59 pm

#125 amazon girl on 01.17.16 at 9:47 pm
Amazon girl @39
Can’t we just delete this idiot for a few days?
what is a idiot? The one can learn ?The one can listen?
or the one can be happy for the joy of others?
Amazon [email protected] man
June 26 25k invested first time on forex
felt like I lost my mind ,just listened to a man I never
met. it took a few days to recover. then I became a fan 51.I am greatfull for what I learn here.
and for the people who contribute to this blog.
WAY TO GO SMOKING MAN THANKS TO YOU .

If my teeth were not so bad, I’d French kiss you.. but then we got to deal with Sherly Valentine.

Ill stick with the wife, she’s use to them.
—–
Smokey man is taking some serious heat tonight.. whole lotta jealous dogs I’m thinking.. I’m just in heat for the alien beast.. and obviously there are quite a few other vixens out there who get the beast’s kavorka with a side-order of a mean plasma nozzle and done very nicely ….thank-you very much.

Rotten teeth.. hmmm, ok fix teeth before shower…. with all those mega $$$ that are pissing everyone off

#146 jane 24 on 01.17.16 at 11:54 pm

Be careful boys and girls as we are moving into the ‘falling knives’ part of the RE cycle when due to ‘recency’ houses look cheap in comparison to last year.

Knives keep falling though and if you catch one (buy a house) before the knife actually hits the floor, you will bleed financially too in company with the original owner. As an example – buying in Alberta now is just pain stupid. Those financial knives have a long way to fall further and can cut you to ribbons for years to come.

On the plus side we are all still alive in a wonderful world. Treasure today.

#147 Big Dipper on 01.18.16 at 12:04 am

#122 Smoking Man on 01.17.16 at 9:43 pm

“Cause you were not smart enough to succeed, everyone else that attempts what you failed at is a loser.

Ok”

——————————————

What made you think I did not succeed? I did crap like that before you were born. Not just currencies either. You haven’t lived until you pyramid on a trend. It’s casino stuff. Nothing to do with investing

Difference is that I never found a need to brag about it. You had a lucky run and that’s it. Knew lots of guys like you. All testosterone driven. Enormous egos. Motor mouths. Early demise most of them. Good night.

#148 Chris on 01.18.16 at 12:05 am

Currently on a shopping spree….buying REITs that pay 11%, banks at a 40% discount, oil companies going below book value….life is good. Bring on the recession, everything goes on sale. Good companies, going dirt cheap. Makes me remember 2008….when I bought my cottage for 1/2 its value in the middle of the crash. I love recessions.

#149 Rich Young on 01.18.16 at 12:17 am

Garth,

How can you not think this time is not different? Since the 90s we have seen house prices rise as Government desperately manipulated bond markets and interest rates lower. This also caused the stock market bubble we are in. This is different as when things start to collapse they can not lower rates to save us. That game is over. Therefore, you have to think this is the END GAME.

Don’t want to write on forever. I do have a B.Comm and have been in business for self since 1995. This is a mess and it is one we can not be bailed out of with cheaper credit and re-financing.

#150 Vundo on 01.18.16 at 12:28 am

#144 45north: you ask a good question. Garth has answered it definitively “no” several times now, but I don’t recall him ever sharing why he thinks that way. The opportunity for a party to pander to homeowners seems like it would be a difficult thing to pass up if enough of them were panicked and paying attention.

#151 Fortune500 on 01.18.16 at 12:41 am

A bit of insider perspective from the Gulf. Those of you in Oil and Gas, or invested heavily in this sector, do not doubt the current Saudi governments resolve to see this thing through. They have taken the gamble and losing face is a big deal around here. They will keep pumping for a long time yet.

The changes taking place in the GCC are unprecedented as the Saudis prepare for a long fight. We are seeing increases in fuel prices, subsidies being removed, and all sorts of areas that were considered ‘no go’ just a year or two ago (privatizing part of Aramco … seriously!?)

They are fully aware that they are playing with fire as much of the loyalty for the house of Saud comes from handouts, but it appears to be a now or never gamble. Either way, do not hold your breath for a ‘return to normal’ for years to come.

#152 Regjeg on 01.18.16 at 12:50 am

Let’s not put too much faith in the recent U.S. job creation #s as an indicator that all is swell with the U.S. economy. Employment gains are a lagging, not leading, indicator of underlying strength of an economy. Weekly jobless claims have risen 20% y-o-y at December 31, 2015.

#153 T.P.L. on 01.18.16 at 12:51 am

Federal stimulus spending = pushing on a string?

Wondering what portion a federal government dollar spent in 2016 transfers into the economy/GDP. The trend has been a declining percentage for years.

#154 kommykim on 01.18.16 at 1:02 am

RE:

#143 AB Boxster on 01.17.16 at 11:18 pm
#137 KommyKim
—————–
TA – common
TA.PR.J preferred

Moodys recently downgraded TransAlta’s credit rating to Ba1 which is a notch above junk status.
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Downgrades-TransAlta-to-Ba1-Outlook-Stable–PR_341612
This might explain the slightly larger slide in TransAlta’s pref prices compared to others. The market obviously thinks so, and has priced them accordingly.

#155 Practical_Logical on 01.18.16 at 3:04 am

How many nicks does this Smoking Man have on this blog?…sheesh
Or could it all be elaborate Garth T alter egos?lol

#156 Meanwhile in Victoria on 01.18.16 at 3:34 am

The mayor and people of this city (mayors are elected after all) are actively enabling what the rest of the world would label as a slum:

http://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/tent-city-residents-say-thank-you-with-open-house-1.2152837

After reeling from the absurdity of the mayor referring to a shanty made of shipping paletes as a micro-housing unit, check out the tent city’s Facebook page and give their list of needs a read.

The home-moaners in the neighborhood are stuck here. I on the other hand can bail on this madness with 60 days notice if need be, praise be to Garth. Thank you for supporting the sanity of us renters here in Vic!

#157 Doomed out on 01.18.16 at 4:33 am

Worthless fiat:

Classic doom and gloom. There are people and websites that make money on pumping fear. They are regular news on testosterone.

I saw cauliflower 2 for $5 in Vancouver. Cauliflower is following supply and demand. Issues producing it caused raise in price. If it was our dollar, then other produce would be ridiculously high as well. Produce is more expensive than last year but not crazy like cauliflower.
He references zero hedge, if you listen to them and prepared for doom after 2008, you would have missed the run from 2008 till now. Everything is a cycle. Nothing good will last forever as well as nothing bad

#158 Shady Tree and His Acorns on 01.18.16 at 6:38 am

Those who buy energy equities soon, could – in January 2017 – look like those today who bought cauliflower futures in USD six months ago.

#159 Another Canuck Expat on 01.18.16 at 6:51 am

@155
How many nicks does this Smoking Man have on this blog?…sheesh
Or could it all be elaborate Garth T alter egos?lol
—-

IMO I view SM’s postings in this blog as free psychotherapy, keeping him occupied and preventing himself from getting into real trouble out there in the big bad world. Sure, he’s abrasive, obnoxious, and completely self-absorbed…a cautionary tale of the consequences of easy money and years of QE hysteria.

All in all, as far as free entertainment goes, he’s passable, that said we’re all free to ignore his manic ramblings. ;)

#160 Chris on 01.18.16 at 7:07 am

“That game is over. Therefore, you have to think this is the END GAME.” -awesome….sell me all your stocks. I’ll take them at 1/2 what you paid for them.

#161 Ontario's Left Coast on 01.18.16 at 7:55 am

#125 amazon girl on 01.17.16 at 9:47 pm
Amazon girl @39
June 26 25k invested first time on forex
felt like I lost my mind ,just listened to a man I never
met. it took a few days to recover. then I became a fan 51.I am greatfull for what I learn here.
and for the people who contribute to this blog.
WAY TO GO SMOKING MAN THANKS TO YOU .

I won’t begrudge anyone who’s made a successful bet, but all this forex euphoria is starting to sound like a pyramid scheme as the easy money with USD/CAD has already been made. “Thanks Smokey, you changed my life… now I can put my kids through college…!” Give me a break.

Those who have been around know what comes next. Careful, folks.

M48ON

#162 John Jacobs on 01.18.16 at 8:28 am

DELETED

#163 economictsunami on 01.18.16 at 8:34 am

In the short term :

Act surprised.

Show concern.

Do nothing.

It’s not a bad short term regrouping strategy; considering that ‘paper profits’ are waaay out of whack with economic reality.

Too many years of artificial CB stimulus. (Think back to a time when bad economic news was seen as good financial markets news and would spike bets on what monetary policy CBs would or wouldn’t deploy. Little else drove markets.)

Throw in some bottom line cost cutting/ hinky accounting and voila; further boosting the wealth effect.

Speaking of doing nothing:

Perhaps The BoC (with only two precious 1/4 pt bullets left in the chamber) might want to consider holding off on pulling the trigger. Negative rates would be a rather nasty proposition but competitive devaluation may force you to do things you never fathomed.

As for the Libs: Stimulus will not solve the mountain of debt held by consumers that needs to unwind.

Debt, demographics, and deleveraging, during the current wind down of the Third Industrial Revolution will be a rather tricky process for the intertwined global economy to negotiate…

Strong China property data masks big problem: unsold homes :

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-property-idUSKCN0UW178

Something Strange Going on in Housing:

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/01/13/something-strange-going-on-in-housing.aspx

#164 TurnerNation on 01.18.16 at 9:00 am

“Never let a good crisis go to waste? ”

Alberta’s always been a bit to big for its britches.
How about fashioning its broken workforce into a “Mexico North” production zone replete with isolated work camps (now empty) and indentured type company workers. New PST could help.

#165 fancy_pants on 01.18.16 at 9:07 am

ok, so sit tight on your investment portfolio. got it. understood. but your general sentiment for RE on this blog has been get the hell out while you can… touché on such duplicity.

Wrong. The watchword here has always been balance, so the caution has been to avoid a one-asset strategy. Those will all net worth in real estate should, indeed, sell near the top. Nothing wrong with having a house if you also have liquid assets. — Garth

#166 Powder_hound on 01.18.16 at 9:21 am

No bear market in the U.S. — Garth

Garth, several USA indices are already in bear markets.

In fact almost ever index on the planet is in a bear market save the S&P and Dow.

A correction is a scratch, not a bear bite. — Garth

#167 Apocalypse2016 on 01.18.16 at 9:39 am

Wealth of the top 1% is now equal to the bottom 99%.

Can you say “global insurrection coming”?

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35339475

http://www.oxfam.ca/our-work/publications/an-economy-for-the-1

The violence and destruction that lies ahead will make WWII look like a skirmish.

#168 Just saying on 01.18.16 at 10:32 am

Cauliflower for 2.59$ at the local Montreal market today – just saying!

#169 fancy_pants on 01.18.16 at 10:35 am

Those with all net worth in real estate should, indeed, sell near the top. Nothing wrong with having a house if you also have liquid assets. — Garth

I get what you are saying but to be the devil’s advocate:
what top? Today’s top? As opposed to the top of 2008 or 10, 12, 14 … finding peaks and valleys is clearly a crap shoot of sorts, doesn’t matter what medium your $ finds itself.

It matters little if you have a one-asset strategy. You are best to change that as soon as you wake up to the risk. — Garth

#170 Sam Wonderful on 01.18.16 at 10:43 am

“ZPR & CPD

Lets take a look at this asset class, say in ten years and wonder why it is not a strong buy at current price?

Short term thinking comes to mind.”

Yup, but with Trudy and Poloz at the helm the dollar will continue to get slashed until Canada enters a kind of 1940’s nightmare scenario and taxpayers pay 100% in taxation to support the status quo civil service, and, the Prefs won’t recover as long as we have incompetents in government willing to extend the ZIRP to borrow. Don’t beat your head against the wall.

I have 4 stocks that have beat the down draft every week of the past 16, but Garth says stocking is bad, so I won’t write ’em down.

#171 For those about to flop... on 01.18.16 at 10:45 am

#161 Ontario’s Left Coast on 01.18.16 at 7:55 am

I won’t begrudge anyone who’s made a successful bet, but all this forex euphoria is starting to sound like a pyramid scheme as the easy money with USD/CAD has already been made. “Thanks Smokey, you changed my life… now I can put my kids through college…!” Give me a break.

Those who have been around know what comes next. Careful, folks.

M48ON

////////////////////////////////////
Hey OLC ,I wrote a post on Friday with a similar theme.
My main concern is not really for the regulars on this blog but for the hundreds/ thousands? of people that are lurkers here and are mainly young and impressionable and could see fx as being their ticket out of the basement suite.
I guess it’s human nature to brag ,but with the anonanimity of this blog it wouldn’t hurt if occasionally there was some truth about some sizeable losses to balance out the picture a little bit.
I came out pretty much even last year but if I record some losses this year I will post them.
I am glad some regulars have made some money but I am more interested in investment advice than gambling ,if I want to do that I will just go to the River Rock Casino and roll the dice ,so to speak…

M41BC

#172 45north on 01.18.16 at 10:54 am

economictsunami: from your first link: Three, population growth has shifted from suburbs to cities. This is driven in part by the decline of factories (located in rural areas) and the rise of information jobs (located in cities), and in part by millennials rejecting the commuting lifestyles of their parents. It’s a big shift:

one of my interests is the pattern of growth of cities. The author Morgan Housel is talking about cities in the US but I think the shift also applies to Canada. All the provincial capitals have a concentration of information jobs. I mean relative to the rest of the province. Ottawa in particular as the national capital has a concentration of information jobs. In contrast, cities like Peterborough and North Bay don’t.

#173 BS Meter Reader on 01.18.16 at 11:13 am

“They blew the surplus within thirty days of coming into power”

Rona Ambrose today on CP24, speaking of the Liberals.

Is it any wonder that people have lost all confidence in conservative bullshit with statements like this?

Like any government could have such an impact so quickly?

Of course the reality is that Ambrose and Harper lied about the economy, and the Liberals merely uncovered the truth.

Oh the irony, of Harper’s greatest desire to “change Canada” and ruin the Liberal party.

Instead, the Conservatives will be outsiders for a generation and more, and Liberals will be more entrenched than ever.

Conservatives=Losers. Epic Fail.

#174 cramar on 01.18.16 at 11:15 am

Was talking to a realtor I know in Windsor on the weekend. I mentioned about BoC dropping rates come Wed. He said he got a call last week from a mortgage broker he deals with. The guy told him, “I can now offer five year mortgages for 2.5%”

Let the Cdn RE party continue!

#175 Ontario's Left Coast on 01.18.16 at 11:44 am

#171 For those about to flop… on 01.18.16 at 10:45 am

Cheers Flopper, I’m glad I’m not the only one… it’s about the fundamentals and I get concerned whenever anyone gets caught up in the latest get rich quick scheme. Good for Smokey, though, if he can do it.

On the plus side, I’m enjoying a rare snow day in my neck of the woods. Take care and have a good one!

M48ON

#176 AB Boxster on 01.18.16 at 11:50 am

“We will bring in 25,000 Syrian refugees by Dec 31, 2015”

Justin Trudeau Liberals.

Is it any wonder that people have lost all confidence in Liberal bullshit with statements like this?

Like any government could make such a statement and believe it.?

Of course the reality is that Trudeau and Mccallum lied about these numbers, and the everyone knows the truth.

Oh the irony, of Trudeau’s sunny daze and new ways of doing politics in Canada.

Instead, the Liberals have reverted back to their old ways of promising the world, (fix global warming, solve native affairs, growing the economy, prudent financial management) without really doing anything at all.

This will guarantee a 1 term Liberal gov’t.

Liberals=Liars. Epic Fail.

#177 common sense on 01.18.16 at 11:56 am

#171 Flopper

I agree..Fx is a form of gambling (Or should I be politically correct and call it GAMING “We’re just playing a fun, innocent game like Monopoly” but that’s another story.

Unlike Investing which should always be done with a longer time horizon , unless you buy in properly, Fx can be risky. Yet if you manage your risk which you should do in ALL situations and IF you have the funds to trade currency it can be and has been good for me so far after getting a late start on this current USD/CDN run.

So as a novice public service announcement in the vein of brother Flopper…”Do NOT invest in Forex unless you can lose the money invested, know how to put in stop losses to cover your butt. At least time getting into it is
basically too late unless I’d estimate $50000 to start with.”

But Flopper as for a casino and gaming (Hate that word) that is absolutely nuts. The odds/risk is not in your favour. Ever. Unless you get lucky fast, cash out and leave asap. Good Luck.

MON54

#178 M on 01.18.16 at 11:58 am

Gartho baby..u re upside down again … but u re sweet anyway..
This crap hitting is not the big IT. The big IT will come later in 2016 when the fracking morons will have to dish a few trillion (yup…with a big T)… THEN my friend the show will really start.

Now.. Andy Roberts is one of the few honest guys in investment out there… this is exactly what the plebe should do now…git in cash !

And by the way… stop watching CNN/CBC/BBC crap… on that one US was the dickhead state not Iran :)

And yes..the best thing to do NOW (for a few months at least ) is buy gold.

..and yes… when China takes the plunge watch that bond market :)

I just love it. Amazing times are ahead of us with lots of fat morons waited to be shorted.

..and again..just for you to look good:
Wednesday prime canadastan rate will go down.
Baby Jen will not backtrack on rates. She’ll just wet another two pair of depends then launch bravely QE4.

..and yes..Wednesday + 6 months canuk housing is off the cliff.

.. just for you..Gartho baby

#179 Dups on 01.18.16 at 12:03 pm

TSX including the dollar and housing are experiencing a good size bear market (not a crash).

DOW, S&P, Nasdaq are just going sideways waiting for some stability to start their new bull market.

CAD will take about 3-4 years before it reaches above 75 US cent again.

#180 Keith in Calgary on 01.18.16 at 12:13 pm

The government has done it before, which means they could always do it again because the all encompassing political precedent has been set.

In the early to mid 80’s the Alberta government had a program that paid you the difference on a monthly basis between their perception of acceptable market rates, and the your current much higher mortgage rates, if you could prove that you were unable to service the debt and would lose your house to foreclosure.

I was a mortgage banker back then for First City Trust company.

#181 M on 01.18.16 at 12:15 pm

fracking morons:

http://www.economist.com/news/business/21656671-americas-shale-energy-industry-has-future-many-shale-firms-do-not-fractured-finances

http://kingworldnews.com/former-white-official-warns-another-derivatives-nightmare-shock-world/

http://dailyreckoning.com/oil-sector-debt/

yup.. 2 years ago:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2014/12/19/who-will-get-caught-when-the-oil-debt-bubble-pops/#2715e4857a0b22ea7d8d58a8

US Morons:
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/28406-russia-blamed-us-taxpayers-on-the-hook-as-fracking-boom-collapses

… throw away the TV and you ll know what s happening in the world. AND make a decent buck on it :)

#182 Ronaldo on 01.18.16 at 12:17 pm

So you see, everything is fine in Toronto, prices going to rise even more in 2016. According to these dudes anyway.

http://www.thestar.com/business/2016/01/18/toronto-housing-sales-may-set-record-in-2016-report.html

#183 fancy_pants on 01.18.16 at 12:21 pm

#149 Rich Young on 01.18.16 at 12:17 am

spot on. the bailouts will quantify as more QE. and that will once again put upward pressure on everything with a price tag or any bubble you can park your $.

until rates ‘normalize’ (whatever that means now) there is no end in sight. this debt fueled, credit driven wagon will be driven until the wheels come off at which point RE (any physical hard assets) will be no worse off than other investments.

some people just value a home as a place to live. invest in life and a place to hang your hat and love your cat. At least you can curl up with a book in that ‘portfolio’.

#184 Nelson on 01.18.16 at 12:22 pm

“The argument for thinking RBS published an idiot report builds when you look at the US. There is no recession coming. Not even close.”

The above sounds like the same thing that the Central Bank would say when history will eventually show that it was already in a recession. True, US has been stronger, but it’s still rather anemic/fragile so it won’t take much to slide into recession, including just talk itself into a self fulfilling prophecy

#185 M on 01.18.16 at 12:23 pm

oh yes.. this is really good :) almost 2 years old :)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-12-18/bankers-see-1-trillion-of-investments-stranded-in-the-oil-fields

informative:
http://www.globelawandbusiness.com/SHG/sample.pdf

http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2014/12/19/who-will-get-caught-when-the-oil-debt-bubble-pops/2/#2715e4857a0b57dd4758325e

.. so now you know. Go short those bastards :)

#186 Henry Stein on 01.18.16 at 12:25 pm

To TRT #135

Let’s get the wealth of those 62 richest people and everyone else who has some money and give it to you and see what you do with it.

The whole world will be poor and more stupid. Socialism and Communism, wealth, income distribution ( nice way of saying stealing peoples money to give to others) and your all out income, wealth distribution folly will be much worse than what mixed up economic, financial system we have today.

Instead making people work and save, invest and pass down money to their families which is their money not yours and anyone else, just say people can’t keep your money that you earn in the first place by limiting how much they can earn, save, invest, pass on etc.

Have guts instead of being a coward of sneaking around after 10, 20, 30 years and making laws that steal people’s money after the fact they earned, saved, invested and pass down their money not yours.

Say, a $1 a day for everyone and the rest goes to the TRT’s of the world and other socialists, communists and generally legal thieves by a dictatorial power and overreaching in power so we can all be living as poor poppers. This way we can all be equally poor and all equally done for just like you like it and others that just like you that are so destructive in your thinking.

By the way, your Obama wealth, income distribution pal spent 70 million U.S. dollars in 7 years of power going on 23 vacations with his family at taxpayers expense. An all time spending record from the president for the working class, poor. What a bunch of B.S. just like TRT.

You don’t get it, power will always be abused but you just want others to be poor and depressed as you are TRT. The world tried it your way for decades in U.S.S.R. Cuba, Venezuela, Argentina, India in the past, Greece, Nazi Germany, fascist Italy etc. etc.

It failed big time TRT and others like you!

#187 For those about to flop... on 01.18.16 at 12:27 pm

Hey OLC and Common sense thanks for the sensible messages.
Although I may never meet anyone on this blog I wish to see nobody financially crippled through greed or desperation .
For what it’s worth my idea of a good time gambling is to put on some of my best clothes,grab a heap of friends and hit the horse racetrack for the afternoon.
I haven’t done it here but I used to do it regularly back in oz.Placing a bet on a horse and see / hear them rumbling by is a pretty cool experience.
In the city where I am from ,the main race day of the year it is even a public holiday and even a good place talk business if you are not into gambling.
Garth talks about balance,everything in moderation is also not the worst advice…

M41BC

#188 Henry Stein on 01.18.16 at 12:28 pm

I meant to spell paupers not poppers. Oops!

#189 Roial1 on 01.18.16 at 12:48 pm

China’s apparently run by idiots.
——————————————–
Well, does this statement mean that you have given up on being “Mr. World”
next year when they have the show in Bejing, Garth?

You might look good in a “G” string???????

(how to get Canada banned EVERYWHERE.)

#190 Mike in Edm on 01.18.16 at 12:51 pm

Word from our exec’s today is that many drilling companies are going to hold off their budgeted money / drilling for later in the year. No point in drilling when oil is $28 and have to pay for all the extra (heating) costs associated with -30C weather, when they can do it in Q3 or Q4 when they’re optimistic oil prices will be higher…. But then again, these are all the same guys that said 1 year ago that oil would be back up to $70 by Q3 2015. Now I think they’re hoping for $40-$50 by Q3 2016, but I still have not seen one ounce of reasoning why/how that’s going to happen. The feeling from everyone I talk to is that we haven’t seen the light at the end of the tunnel yet.

#191 pinstripe on 01.18.16 at 12:51 pm

The coffee shop was buzzing this morning and the buzz did not slow down until we were told to make room for the lunch crowd.

the topic was focused on kevin oleroy jumping into the leadership race for the CPC. 100% support for kevin. no support whatsoever for any of the harpo hacks. there was even mention of GT stepping into politics and taking on the role of finance minister.

The cpc must go through a TOTAL rebuild. harpo policies forced many Canadians to lose ALL trust and confidence in politics. A name change to the party is not good enough.

#192 Condo Minion on 01.18.16 at 12:55 pm

Hmm. This likely won’t help flagging condo sales.

Apparently, getting older in a condo and having a heart attack means you will almost certainly die. Penthouse views are especially deadly.

http://www.thestar.com/life/health_wellness/2016/01/18/heart-attacks-in-highrises-a-deadly-combination-toronto-study-shows.html

Good things the sellers promise condos are such a fabulous “investment” – you better rent it out and live in a townhouse!

#193 TurnerNation on 01.18.16 at 1:02 pm

Lighter comment load today. Maybe some here are Americans with the day off. Agitators who apparently have tired of their freedoms and come here to blast us Kanadians.

#194 BC RE - gov't interest on 01.18.16 at 1:04 pm

Yep keep buttering up that BC RE – we wouldn’t want common folks to lose equity.

https://vreaa.wordpress.com/2016/01/12/bc-finance-minister-owns-8-properties-warns-against-state-intervention-in-re-market/

#195 Retired Boomer WI on 01.18.16 at 1:17 pm

#167 Apocalypse 2016

According to the Oxfam “report” my assets total enough to be included in the “Top 1%” of the world?

Gee, why do I feel so… more like the 99% that I know.

From the numbers, Americans & Canadians would fare mighty well compared with the rest of the world. That said, what are we bickering over then?
A mere dip in oil, and some stock “values.” Oh, poor us.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35339475

#196 FX on 01.18.16 at 1:19 pm

@forthose about to flip and Obtario’s left coast:

F/X is not for amateurs. You need to absorb incredible amounts of information just to have a better than 50% probability of getting the correct trend.

It’s a dog eat dog world out there. You state that impressionable minds may be swayed into forex and lose? Well impressionable minds may end up buying and holding a TSX ETF for the last 10 years. How has that worked out for them in US Dollars. Zero return except the dividends.

FX is extremely difficult. It should be done by a professional.

Having said that, the CND decline was a no brainer this past year or two. My dog could have done it.

#197 Dups on 01.18.16 at 1:22 pm

Gas in the US is under 1$ for a Gallon (3.8 L)

We get only one litter here for that price.

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2016/01/18/gas-prices-fall-below-1-in-michigan.html

#198 Eddie on 01.18.16 at 1:30 pm

No Bear market in US . Only Bull markets allowed from now on . 7 years and counting … it will just keep going up after this minor correction… do nothing just like the last crash…

Every economic number form the US government is accurate and true. All jobs created are high paying quality jobs , GDP is great , Cars are not financed, total Corporate debt is no big deal, huge corp. buybacks are normal and will continue. The FED raising rates in a 0.1 % GDP quarter “proves” there are green shoots everywhere and the recovery is going well.

All figures regarding Canadian Real Estate are false. All figures regarding US housing are true.

Just keep picking the stats you want to believe, and disregard all others … it’s easy … Party On.

#199 Renter's Revenge! on 01.18.16 at 1:31 pm

#140 JSS on 01.17.16 at 10:57 pm
“…in addition to the cauliflower, I also bought some BAnk Nova Scotia, and Fortis common shares last Friday.

If no one wants, I’ll take some. Excuse my reach.”

How rude! j/k but don’t brag too much about your good stock purchases or down the road when you’re rolling in it people will accuse you of being a “greedy capitalist” LOL

#200 Briana on 01.18.16 at 1:37 pm

What does all of this mean for the Toronto housing market? When will it “correct” or bust”? Still waiting and hoping, and heeding Garth’s advice, while saving my cash. Something has to give at some point…..

Either I invest my cash now in these volatile markets or I keep it in the bank earning pennies in interest or join the first time home buyers club and support the housing market? I have about 120k in liquid savings and save 4k each month (kept money on hand in case I decided to jump into housing market).

It seems I’ve already missed the boat on the housing market and investing in the market/benefiting from lower CAD — as Garth has outlined. Def kudos to him on some great calls…

Here is the latest from the Financial Post, and an enlightening report on the history of the Canadian housing market:

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/homeandproperty/first-time-buyers-driving-toronto%E2%80%99s-hot-housing-market/ar-BBomIet?li=AAgh0dA&ocid=mailsignout

http://business.financialpost.com/features/boom-and-bust

I don’t think the YYZ/YVR has many more legs to stand on, but I have thought this for years (like Garth) and the markets keep booming. Housing does not go up forever. What gives?

#201 not 1st on 01.18.16 at 1:52 pm

I’m not sure how infrastructure spending is going to help our long term economy. I mean we have enough roads and rails to get our stuff to market. Maybe invest in that energy east pipeline or maybe a cross country high speed rail or hyperloop or something.

#202 marnic on 01.18.16 at 1:56 pm

Economists at a large bank say, “Buy the banks.” Astonishing.

#203 neo on 01.18.16 at 1:57 pm

Garth,

You still haven’t explained why in the face of The Fed raising rates and the economy growing, the US 10 year will be sub 2% shortly. The 30 year is sub 3%. I’ve said this for a long time. But I will believe in this recovery when the bond market isn’t at recessionary levels.

#204 Marcus on 01.18.16 at 2:06 pm

Oil under $28 now.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-17/brent-oil-extends-decline-below-28-as-iran-set-to-worsen-glut

#205 For those about to flop... on 01.18.16 at 2:16 pm

#202 marnic on 01.18.16 at 1:56 pm
Economists at a large bank say, “Buy the banks.” Astonishing.

////////////////////////////////
Yeah I hear what you are saying.
I’ve got 10k ready to invest in my TFSA ,with that money I’m told it’s a good time to buy a house ,buy a car ,buy oil,buy banks ,buy gold ,buy prefs and with whatever’s left I am going to try my hand at F/X ,what could possibly go wrong…

M41BC

#206 Jack Smith on 01.18.16 at 2:29 pm

To Neo

It is all about falling oil prices, commodity prices which impact gasoline prices, heating oil prices, etc. etc.. The Fed and other central banks look at that as a deflationary force or at least falling prices, disinflation.

You can just imagine when Canadian real estate prices fall then watch out!

The falling Canadian dollar to the U.S. dollar is being ignored as inflationary by the Bank of Canada. Remember, Poloz said work for free.

#207 Smoking Men on 01.18.16 at 2:43 pm

I’m puzzled ? Is it the Vegan diet that totally distorts the minds of radical liberal Urbanites. Eat a some rare steak and shake yourself out of the madness.

Are you jealous of my popularity? my wealth? Probably my good looks.

Those that hunt for themselves or want to learn to hunt tend to appreciate my posts.

Those that spent their entire lives as prey and have no intention of learning another way have issues with them.

Hate all you wan’t

*************

For a guy that’s so intelligent and is so busy getting rich, you’re spelling and grammar are terrible and you’re posting often almost 10 times a day, like a person that has absolutely nothing to do with his life.

To bad we don’t have an ignore function on this board.

SM

#208 HFT Dude on 01.18.16 at 2:43 pm

James Hymas has an interesting chart on his blog showing that yields on fixed-reset preferreds have decoupled from GoC 5-year bonds. Most (all?) issues will reset at a rate equal to the 5-year yield + some spread. His conclusion:

“So why is this happening? I believe that a sudden realization that low Canada yields would be reflected in dividends of FixedResets, that started with the reset of TRP.PR.A announced in early December, 2014, turned into unreasonable fear in the spring of 2015 and escalated into blind panic.”

http://prefblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/PL_160108_Body_Chart_17.jpg

#209 Big Dipper on 01.18.16 at 3:14 pm

I vote for more from: #39 Emma Zaun – GreaterFool Unpaid Intern #007.

This poor underpaid sweatshop worker has come up with the best zingers on this blog. She needs to unionize.

Todays winner was:

“Smoking Man, in his usual auto-fellatio routine.”

Perfect description, although it does leave a disturbing mental picture.

Lets hear it for Emma!

#210 confused on 01.18.16 at 3:19 pm

When is the Toronto real estate board going to stop this facade that prices are still rising and Toronto keeps setting sales records? Did it tell everyone that 2015 was likely the worst year on record for properties that were listed and never sold except at a deep discount. Did it tell people stripped of rebuilds prices are probably down since 2014? Ask people how long it takes them to sell and how many price drops they go through on average properties. There are condos that have been listed in the downtown core for over 20 months.

#211 Nagraj on 01.18.16 at 3:24 pm

GT: “China’s apparently run by idiots.”

SINGAPORE TIMES BREAKING NEWS: RAFFLES HOTEL
Mr. G. Turner, a Canadian citizen, has disappeared. Last seen in Raffles Hotel courtyard fanning himself.
Mr. Turner was in town shopping for ginseng roots, and is known to have planned a further sojourn to Hong Kong tomorrow to record the Noonday Gun.
The Canadian ambassador to China, Mr. Bob Rae, contacted by alarmed friends of Mr. Turner expressed no concern, saying in a brief written statement that Mr. Turner was probably just out walking his dog.
(The last person to have seen said dog is a Filipino butcher visiting domestically employed relatives here. This gentleman left Singapore to return home yesterday.)

#212 Dollar Daze on 01.18.16 at 3:46 pm

#207 Smoking Men on 01.18.16 at 2:43 pm

I’m puzzled ? Is it the Vegan diet that totally distorts the minds of radical liberal Urbanites. Eat a some rare steak and shake yourself out of the madness.

Are you jealous of my popularity? my wealth? Probably my good looks.

Those that hunt for themselves or want to learn to hunt tend to appreciate my posts.

Those that spent their entire lives as prey and have no intention of learning another way have issues with them.

Hate all you wan’t

*************

For a guy that’s so intelligent and is so busy getting rich, you’re spelling and grammar are terrible and you’re posting often almost 10 times a day, like a person that has absolutely nothing to do with his life.

To bad we don’t have an ignore function on this board.

SM
………………………………………………………………….
Are you jealous of my popularity? my wealth? Probably my good looks.
Apparently not, you are supposedly a smelly cigarette breathed, toothless old guy. No matter how much cash you have you are still lipstick on a pig!

#213 Ontario's Left Coast on 01.18.16 at 3:55 pm

Hey, the TSX went up today!!! No wait, it went down. Red means down… Um, never mind.

#214 Harbour on 01.18.16 at 3:55 pm

Almost 200,000 previously-owned, or “used,” vehicles from Canada were imported into the United States in 2015, more than double the total from a year earlier.

These buyers wouldn’t go to Canada for a 10 percent difference, but they will for a 30 percent difference.

http://www.reuters.com/article/canada-autosales-currency-idUSL2N14Y20U20160114

#215 Penny Henny on 01.18.16 at 4:00 pm

#192 Condo Minion on 01.18.16 at 12:55 pm
Hmm. This likely won’t help flagging condo sales.

Apparently, getting older in a condo and having a heart attack means you will almost certainly die. Penthouse views are especially deadly.

http://www.thestar.com/life/health_wellness/2016/01/18/heart-attacks-in-highrises-a-deadly-combination-toronto-study-shows.html
/////////////////////////////////////

Cardiac arrest not heart attack. Big difference.
Stupid toronto star.

#216 For those about to flop... on 01.18.16 at 4:04 pm

Awww Geez,with all this Joking Man bashing ,tonight I’m gonna have to read how he pulled the cigarette lighter out of his car dashboard sold it on kijiji for $3.25 and then went and turned it into 6.8 million dollars using a series of manoeuvres….thanks for nothing guys….

M41BC

#217 Ronaldo on 01.18.16 at 4:08 pm

#204 Marcus

”Oil under $28 now.”

That’s where we were in March of 2000.

#218 Penny Henny on 01.18.16 at 4:09 pm

#210 confused on 01.18.16 at 3:19 pm
When is the Toronto real estate board going to stop this facade that prices are still rising and Toronto keeps setting sales records? Did it tell everyone that 2015 was likely the worst year on record for properties that were listed and never sold except at a deep discount. Did it tell people stripped of rebuilds prices are probably down since 2014? Ask people how long it takes them to sell and how many price drops they go through on average properties. There are condos that have been listed in the downtown core for over 20 months.
//////////////////////////////////////

Dear Confused.
You are confused because you have been listening to Mark.

#219 Paul on 01.18.16 at 4:11 pm

#212 Dollar Daze on 01.18.16 at 3:46 pm
To bad we don’t have an ignore function on this board.
————————————————————-
We do it’s that little thing in your right hand!

Better clarify the mouse scroll on by.

#220 No Canada, No on 01.18.16 at 4:13 pm

Sure why sell anything at all, ever
:)

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CL&p=m1

#221 Mark on 01.18.16 at 4:19 pm

“When is the Toronto real estate board going to stop this facade that prices are still rising and Toronto keeps setting sales records?”

Well, the TREB isn’t lying. Average prices, in the stuff they transact in, have been rising. And they are setting sales records.

What the TREB isn’t telling you is that the average house has actually gone down over the past few years. And that the numbers they’re parroting reflect a significant shift to the sales mix — away from less expensive units or used units, and more towards more expensive and new(er) units, rather than the older stuff. They also aren’t telling you that the number of units in Toronto proper has risen significantly, so of course sales figures are going to rise independent of how vibrant the market is.

Its no surprise that they’re doing this, but it speaks to their credibility in representing (or claiming to represent) the buy-side of the market. Additionally, properties that are not realistically priced by Realtors mis-interpreting the “data” provided by their industry group cause real losses to investors as they sit on the market and continue to lose value, not to mention incur expenses of upkeep and other opportunity costs.

James Hymas has an interesting chart

Very smart man, and basically Canada’s “God” when it comes to preferred share analysis.

Economists at a large bank say, “Buy the banks.” Astonishing

I said that a few years ago when I was posting on another forum. And anyone who listened, did well (but perhaps didn’t do so well on where I thought the gold market was going). But the banks are already 40% of the TSX index, and historically, this has been close to the upper-bound of index exposure.

#222 Homeowner on 01.18.16 at 4:21 pm

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-new-home-sales-rose-4-3-in-november-1450883236

Median price for new home in USA is now $448,000 CDN.

In Canada is it $455,000 CDN.

Wow. How the price has narrowed, just as expected.

#223 Ronaldo on 01.18.16 at 4:22 pm

#201 not 1st on 01.18.16 at 1:52 pm

”I’m not sure how infrastructure spending is going to help our long term economy. I mean we have enough roads and rails to get our stuff to market. Maybe invest in that energy east pipeline or maybe a cross country high speed rail or hyperloop or something.”

Or, we could build a huge dam along the 49th somewhere and create a huge water resevoir which we could then sell at a huge cost once the supply to the south starts to dry up. Water is worth more than oil right now is it not?

#224 Paul on 01.18.16 at 4:26 pm

Boy it’s tough when you can’t make a go of it when your inventory is free.

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2016/01/18/goodwill-retail-shutdown-is-unavoidable-says-toronto-ceo.html

#225 Deb Harry on 01.18.16 at 4:30 pm

# Henry Stein

Easy, easy… are you one of those 1%-ers? What do hell are you doing here then?

If you are not, why are you so worked up? Are you just a worker bee, on minimum wage, with the mission of defending the interests of the 1%-ers?

#226 Nanaimo Bar on 01.18.16 at 4:58 pm

#221 Mark
“I said that a few years ago when I was posting on another forum”

————————————————————–

You crack me up. You think of everything. Amazing.

#227 Philburt on 01.18.16 at 5:08 pm

#83 Smoking Man on 01.17.16 at 8:24 pm
Ya know Smoky. Its obvious to me that its going to take humans beings maybe a 1000 yrs to reach some type of enlightenment. AND your certainly living proof of that.
I’ve got enough loot to go anywhere or do what I want….But I’m not and screaming asshole about it..
The Donald is a criminal by the way…But probably no worse then anyone else running things…
We should get a beer?

#228 Mark on 01.18.16 at 5:09 pm

“I mean we have enough roads and rails to get our stuff to market. Maybe invest in that energy east pipeline or maybe a cross country high speed rail or hyperloop or something.””

Ummm, Canada’s rail infrastructure is decrepit. Could easily absorb $100B just to bring it up to modern “freight” standards. And Canada’s telecom infrastructure needs another $100B or more to equip everyone with optical connections and reasonable wireless connectivity.

Cultural industries have also been severely neglected. Engineering R&D has been slashed to the bone. And municipal infrastructure in Canada’s major and even secondary cities is a slow-motion disaster.

Also pipeline capacity for domestic refined supply needs a lot of improvements. The fleet of nuclear reactors probably needs a few additions just to provide for fuel diversity and for long-term ‘time’ diversity (ie: to keep Canada’s industrial know-how “alive” for the inevitable future when the existing fleet wears out).

No shortage of places to spend money or to incent investment. The key under a Liberal government is to make sure it actually ends up as investment, and not wasted on administration and other boondoggles that the Liberals are famous for.

#229 Fine Wild roasted gonads on 01.18.16 at 5:10 pm

Turn up the speakers..timber!

Rockets are fun

https://www.instagram.com/p/BAqirNbwEc0/?taken-by=elonmusk

#230 Bobs ur uncle on 01.18.16 at 5:23 pm

#186 Henry Stein on 01.18.16 at 12:25 pm

***

I’d be interested to hear your thoughts on where the world would be post-08 if the scum-sucking vulture commies of the government hadn’t bailed out AIG et al?

Maybe the raging capitalists don’t have it all figured out after all?

*Every* type of power needs controls, checks and balances. None is purely good or evil. Same as people. Ideological folks need to be reminded of that, be they left or right-leaning.

#231 Fed-up on 01.18.16 at 5:47 pm

#222 Homeowner on 01.18.16 at 4:21 pm
http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-new-home-sales-rose-4-3-in-november-1450883236

Median price for new home in USA is now $448,000 CDN.

In Canada is it $455,000 CDN.

Wow. How the price has narrowed, just as expected.

—————————————————————————

You really can’t use those metrics. Americans earn and spend USD and Canadians earn and spend CAD. If I were to buy a $1,000,000 crap shack in Toronto, I don’t kid myself into thinking that I “only” paid $690,000 USD.

Also, compare what Americans are getting for the $448K or far less in most US cities vs garbage we’re getting for our money.

#232 salonist on 01.18.16 at 5:59 pm

For a guy that’s so intelligent and is so busy getting rich, you’re spelling and grammar are terrible and you’re posting often almost 10 times a day, like a person that has absolutely nothing to do with his life.

sm,makes the best smoked double garlic kelbasa in long branch,hangs out with the nectonites
and puts up with trite little twerps like yourself that have never showered in the wind

To bad we don’t have an ignore function on this board.

#233 family beagle on 01.18.16 at 6:03 pm

This odd and unnerving missive came through on a Telefunken U-47 which I had wired to my sat dish…

“The issue is consumption and consumers. These parasites feel entitled to plunder our shared existence for self satisfaction. They are thieves, claiming ownership through lies and violence. They have little regard for life, other than pets they keep for amusement. Their narcissism crosses cultural and economic borders. Their poor are slovenly and their wealthy are gluttonous. None of them provide any tangible benefit to planetary health. Even their mortal remains are toxic. Every consumer is running around like a little imperialist buying junk to fill their joy hole. They have death camps and floating kitchens where they process other species into food. They plow the planet surface to erect artificial walls and ceilings. They kill their own young for vanity and ideology. Their delusions are reinforced by their governments and institutions. The only means to regain balance is through mass consumer extinction with waste material ejected back to the sun from whence it came. I recommend only keeping a handful of specimens for identification… in case they pop up again, heaven forbid,” said General Qward of the Galactic Guard, in his pronouncement to the Joint Solar Committee for Sector 7 (translated).

I hope this won’t affect condo prices? I’m doing a bathroom reno.

#234 sockeye sam on 01.18.16 at 6:05 pm

R.I.P.

Glenn Frey: band member of the Eagles passed away today
after a long battle with Colitis. He was only 67. Much to young.

#235 family beagle on 01.18.16 at 6:09 pm

Ooh… I got a special invitation in the mail… for a “Dinner Conference” with the glamorous Hilary Farr, star of Love it or List it on HGTV. Should I go? What to wear? A spiffy new collar, no doubt.

#236 waiting on the westcoast on 01.18.16 at 6:13 pm

Mark says… No shortage of places to spend money or to incent investment. The key under a Liberal government is to make sure it actually ends up as investment, and not wasted on administration and other boondoggles that the Liberals are famous for.”

While I don’t agree with some of your assessments on the state of our infrastructure, I do agree with you that government investment is generally poorly done (doesn’t matter which party is in power).

I think T2 should lower taxes and let companies/individuals invest/spend on the goods and services that they need/want.

#237 Ronaldo on 01.18.16 at 7:32 pm

#228 Mark

”Ummm, Canada’s rail infrastructure is decrepit. Could easily absorb $100B just to bring it up to modern “freight” standards.”

Are you referring to the CN and CP mainlines? If so, can you provide some backup in writing for those claims?

#238 Prince Polo on 01.18.16 at 7:44 pm

I vote for more from: #39 Emma Zaun – GreaterFool Unpaid Intern #007.

This poor underpaid sweatshop worker has come up with the best zingers on this blog. She needs to unionize.

Todays winner was:

“Smoking Man, in his usual auto-fellatio routine.”

Perfect description, although it does leave a disturbing mental picture.

Lets hear it for Emma!

}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}}

LOL! I think Emma Zaun is one of Garth’s alter egos.

#239 maxx on 01.18.16 at 7:55 pm

#223 Ronaldo on 01.18.16 at 4:22 pm

” Water is worth more than oil right now is it not?”

Water is and always will be worth more than oil.

#240 Paul Stamos on 01.18.16 at 8:01 pm

To those that think capitalism in whatever form we have sucks go move to Greece, Cuba, North Korea, Venezuela, Argentina etc. and more socialistic countries in Europe and see how it is working out.

Maybe you already are living off the government dole, taxpayers money in Canada. Wait until it runs out.