Priorities

TIGER modified

Poor Bill.

The baby finance minister looked out across the table at a smallish group of non-invasive, tightly-controlled invitees at an event in Toronto Wednesday billed as a ‘pre-budget consultation.’ The goal, he says, is to “seek ideas and comments on how best to support the middle class, grow the economy, and create long-term prosperity.”

There are three more days the guy has to endure the peeps, with the staged encounters ending in Surrey this Saturday. Of course, the federal budget is already largely written. Nothing anyone says in any meeting will find its way into legislation. This is about optics. But at the same time, the feds are in panic mode.

On the day T2 was elected, the dollar was worth 76.8 cents. Less than 90 days later it’s at 69.7 US pennies, or a stunning decline of more than 9%. A big contributor has been oil, which was trading at $46.90 on election day and has since wilted 34%, or $19 a can. This has materially impacted the national economy, with the stock market tumbling more than 11% since the hopey-changey, dump-Harper thing happened on October 19th.

Meantime the Parliamentary Budget Officer has found that our federal deficit will likely be 60% higher than forecast by the incoming government. Minister Morneau has already admitted the modest middle-class tax cut cannot be financed, after all, by soaking the mere 264,000 wealthy people in Canada, so this will cost $1.4 billion. As of last week, of course, all citizens are able to shelter less of their savings in tax-free accounts, as the contribution limit was cut by almost half.

The trade deficit it up. So’s inflation, because the dollar has croaked. Investors have been kicked around as commodities, markets and the currency fall. Western Canadian bitumen is now trading at the lowest level in history – under $10 US a barrel. And now savers are about to be dealt another wicked blow.

Back on the night the new prime minister was promising ‘sunny days ahead’ virtually no economist in Canada was forecasting an interest rate drop. In fact, we were just weeks away from the US Fed pulling the trigger and ending a decade-long era of emergency interest. But by Tuesday of this week, with the dollar on the ropes – dipping below 70 cents – things had changed. Now a third of top analysts, including one from the TD Bank, are warning the Bank of Canada will slice its rate come Wednesday.

In anticipation, the dollar cratered to 69 cents, Government of Canada bond yields plopped, preferreds took another kick in the gut, and pessimism about this funny little nation of condo-dwelling beavers grew apace. David Doyle of Macquarie Capital Markets, scored some headlines with his forecast the loonie will be at 59 cents by the end of the year. Yeah, the lowest ever – guaranteed (if it happens) to make $7 cauliflower look like an awesome bargain. Worse, Doyle says the dollarette could stay at that level for a couple of years, and he thinks interest rates will hit zero.

So what happens Wednesday?

Capital Ecomomics also believes a cut is coming, of a quarter point, which will effectively drop the bank rate by half. If you think today’s dollar decline was mesmerizing, just wait a few days. Blame a contraction in the economy, David Madani says, plus the oil crisis and a deteriorating outlook for Selfie Nation.

“It’s hard to believe how quickly the outlook has darkened since the Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz last spoke officially on the economy and monetary policy in early December,” says Madani. “Overall, the recent plunge in commodity prices has thrown a proverbial spanner in the works, with grim implications for investment and employment prospects this year. We doubt that the Bank will risk waiting for the Federal government to deliver its promised stimulus plan. Accordingly, we think that there is a good chance that the Bank will cut its key policy rate next week. And if oil prices fail to recover later this year, then we wouldn’t rule out another rate cut before year end.”

BILL modified

A third rate cut in twelve months is an admission of economic failure, especially when our partner and neighbour is now moving in the opposite direction. Of course, the collapse in oil, the crushing of the dollar, mounting inflation, investment losses, layoffs, job stress and disappointment weren’t caused by a government elected three months ago. But neither are they being addressed. The prime minister may not have moved to restore confidence in Canada, or even to speak on the issue, but he’s started the process towards legalizing weed. He knows who elected him.

Poor Bill.

335 comments ↓

#1 Rick on 01.13.16 at 6:03 pm

First, Oh Yeah!!!!!

#2 Randy on 01.13.16 at 6:03 pm

Canadian Liberal Media = Corrupt Liars #canpoli https://www.facebook.com/NoLibs/photos/a.183276415056069.54428.183275355056175/1039102329473469/?type=3&theater

#3 Penny Henny on 01.13.16 at 6:05 pm

Catch a tiger by the tail. Makes me think of trying to call a bottom in the markets. GTA and Van are safe though, they only go up.

#4 Love my Kia on 01.13.16 at 6:06 pm

And gold goes up, up, up!

Not T2’s fault the dollar is in bad shape, it’s Harper’s die that was cast and struggling before the election as well. Oil prices are internationally set, so again, not T2’s fault either.

I also believe in a diversified and balanced portfolio, but I see from today that those safe havens are very hard to find. My USD account is very happy though.

#5 Smartalox on 01.13.16 at 6:08 pm

Which Bill is the poor one?

The finance minister, Bill More-n’-owe,
Or the Pot point man, Bill Blair?

#6 Josh in Calgary on 01.13.16 at 6:08 pm

Garth I know you say it’s best not to try to time the market, but man it looks compelling to just get out of the way of this train wreck for a few months. At least convert all maple equity into US dollars.

The best action is no action. — Garth

#7 Love my Kia on 01.13.16 at 6:08 pm

Given the turmoil also happening in the US I can also see the reserve dropping rates again. Volatile days.

#8 lifeisgood on 01.13.16 at 6:09 pm

“To me, the idea that buying a home is such a great idea is just wrong. They may very well decline for the next 30 years in real terms.” Robert Shiller

“From 1890 through 2012, home prices adjusted for inflation literally went nowhere. Not a single dime of real growth. For comparison, the S&P 500 increased more than 2,000-fold during that period, adjusted for inflation. ” Robert Schiller

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/05/04/the-uncomfortable-reason-your-home-is-not-a-great.aspx

#9 Tom from Mississauga on 01.13.16 at 6:10 pm

The Fibs are trying to do an infrastructure stimulus that doesn’t copy Harpo’s in 2009. Good luck with that!

#10 zedgt87 on 01.13.16 at 6:11 pm

Oh and thank goodness he is legalizing weed. Finally some common sense from our leaders on marijuana.

#11 Freedom First on 01.13.16 at 6:11 pm

First in every way – even today.

#12 Rick on 01.13.16 at 6:11 pm

Well, my balanced portfolio has taken a beating since mid December. I’m so happy my money is invested:(

#13 Canadian on 01.13.16 at 6:11 pm

Going back to 2002 won’t be that bad. I’ll take 1 2002-era Avril Lavigne please.

#14 Caught In The Grip on 01.13.16 at 6:12 pm

Jesus Chryyyyyst…

#15 Retired Boomer WI on 01.13.16 at 6:13 pm

Until OIL prices recover, perhaps it would be the thing Canada could do, legalize weed, and tax the snot out of it.

Look, nobody is “forced” to add revenue to the Feds coffers, and likely the provincial coffers by using the shit.

IF you have a better idea to expand potential revenue sources that -maybe- your elected representative won’t fritter away, let us hear your ideas.

In the meantime, what might there be to lose here?

Yes, oil could recover in 2016, maybe not. Same with the current crazy investment scene. People ARE nuts!

#16 Lulu on 01.13.16 at 6:14 pm

Don’t worry, Garth, we still have the housing market stand still here, Vancity and Tdot cannot go down, government won’t let that happen…haha

It’s time to find a piece of land build a tiny house and grow my own food, rain water catchment and practicing composting toilet…. Hmmmm!!!!

#17 Mark on 01.13.16 at 6:14 pm

This time around, I’ll personally join the “no rate cut” camp. Although current inflation is minimal (food increases are more than offset by falling energy and transportation costs), there is still enough slope to the CAD$ yield curve that the Bank of Canada doesn’t need to overly worry about triggering a recession if they fail to cut. Additionally there are inflationary pressures in the system which, given the current severity, cannot be ignored. The low CAD$/USD$ itself should be providing stimulus to export-driven sectors (or allowing it to survive, such as O&G). The BoC won’t want to be seen fomenting a further drop in the CAD$/USD$ pair, which, although largely outside of the purview of interest rate policy, “perception is reality”.

So, for one of the rarest occasions in a while, put me down in the camp of “no rate cut” on the 20th. I know, Troll will tell everyone to trade against me. And that’s his right (and he’s probably done reasonably well on such). But Garth does put forward a fairly solid set of reasons why the BoC shouldn’t, and arguably, won’t cut the policy rate.

#18 A Contrarians Contrarian on 01.13.16 at 6:15 pm

Didn’t everyone here mock the few bold posters who predicted that the BOC would cut rates, and that they would not walk lock-step with the US as it has done over 90% of the time?

I think its time to follow the contrarians to the contrarians….

When the rate cut comes this Wednesday, I think that those posters should identify themselves and flag their previous posts. Time to see if they predicted the market correction as well.

#19 old gringo on 01.13.16 at 6:15 pm

With this economic tsunami bearing down on Canada, how is it even possible Canadians believe house prices will hold?
I do believe that, “Those inside the bubble, cannot see it”.
This will be a severe learning curve for many.
Let’s hope they do learn from it.

#20 Mark on 01.13.16 at 6:18 pm

“From 1890 through 2012, home prices adjusted for inflation literally went nowhere. Not a single dime of real growth. For comparison, the S&P 500 increased more than 2,000-fold during that period, adjusted for inflation. ” Robert Schiller”

Exactly. Housing is where capital goes to die. Not where you see growth. Unfortunately, this face is lost on so many people in Canada who, instead of feasting on the smorgasbord of bargains in the contemporary market for businesses assets (including some generational buys in the inversely correlated sectors), their capital is locked up in housing.

#21 DontHaveaMilinVan on 01.13.16 at 6:19 pm

Anyone else from BC incensed about premier Christy Clark’s brilliant comments on how to deal with the housing affordability issue??

“Some of the proposals that the city has brought forward would be taking a bite out of the equity that people have already invested in their homes, and we don’t want to do that. That’s for sure,” Clark said.

“We have to careful about any solution that we come up with, while they help make housing more affordable particularly for people entering the market for the first time, that they don’t devalue the price of a home that somebody’s already in,” Clark said.

http://www.metronews.ca/news/vancouver/2016/01/12/bc-premier-does-not-support-actions-to-lower-housing-prices.html

“If somebody owns a $400,000 condo, and government makes a move that reduces the value of that, they’ve got a mortgage on $400,000, not on $350,000,” says Clark.

http://www.news1130.com/2016/01/12/affordable-housing-budget/

Translation: our wonderful premier will protect current homeowners’ and real estate industry’s interests and do everything in her power to prevent prices from falling. Anytime is a good time to get into the market because she will ensure prices never fall and we’re definitely not in a real estate bubble.

#22 Nanaimo Bar on 01.13.16 at 6:22 pm

Please help me understand this one

The Canadian Dollarette is around 70 cents and dropping. Western Canada Select is hovering around $10 US per barrel. Hash Oil is $35.00 per gram. Why isn’t Canada legalizing marijuana right now and promoting Marijuana Eco Tourism? Vancouver is a much more beautiful city than Amsterdam. Come on T2, forget about infrastructure spending.

#23 Frank on 01.13.16 at 6:22 pm

Jesus, stop cutting rates. 2015 showed that it didn’t stop the inevitable, just debatably slowed it. What it did do is run up debt and create asset bubbles.

Oil is on the pooper and we’re gonna hurt. Get used to it. We’ll gut it out but the longer and lower our rates start the more it hurts us long term. Having money worth nothing distorts markets completely, it’s unhealthy.

Accept the pain and let’s bear down together, taking rate cuts as painkillers just hurts our long term recovery as we get addicted to cheap money and can’t move off

#24 Ted on 01.13.16 at 6:23 pm

Does anyone have any good squirrel recipes they can share?

#25 Silent the people on 01.13.16 at 6:23 pm

Garth, Thanks for the post! CDN/USD is going to crash!
Hang on for the ride! T2 has not been told yet! He’s planning for the state dinner! More important things to do….

#26 pathcontrolmonk on 01.13.16 at 6:23 pm

#4 Love My Kia – “Given the turmoil also happening in the US I can also see the reserve dropping rates again. Volatile days.”

What “turmoil” do you speak of? Is it the Yall Qaeda in Oregon you speak of? Or have you been watching too much Alex Jones? Trying to convince yourself that the US is going down with the $0.50 Loonie and $20 oil, is not going to make it so. Canada dug its hole in the tar sands, now its yours to climb out of.

#27 DontHaveaMilinVan on 01.13.16 at 6:24 pm

#6 Josh in Calgary on 01.13.16 at 6:08 pm
Garth I know you say it’s best not to try to time the market, but man it looks compelling to just get out of the way of this train wreck for a few months. At least convert all maple equity into US dollars.

The best action is no action. — Garth

Exactly, the smart money has already made that move long ago, as early as 2 years ago and as recently as a few months ago. Making that move now could prove disastrous should both Canadian equities and the CAD turnaround (they both will eventually) and your timing is off by a bit.

#28 Nanaimo Bar on 01.13.16 at 6:24 pm

Just wanted to warn everyone about hidden inflation scams that are beginning to surface.

Today, I was shopping at Save On Foods and noticed a sign that read, “Cauliflower – $2.99.” With Garth Turner’s advise about hoarding Cauliflower ringing in my ears, I ran up to the bin. Yes, it was $2.99 but they had cut the Cauliflower head into four pieces. So the $2.99 was for only a quarter of a Cauliflower head. So this will be the beginning of fewer potatoes in a sack. Less parsley leaves in a bunch. Less nicotine in a pack of cigarettes. Less fructose corn syrup in a bottle of ketchup. Less words in the new Danielle Steel book. Less calories in a Weigh Watchers Meal. Less logic in Mark’s posts.( just kidding, Mark). Phrases like “cheaper than borscht”, will be replaced with, “not as expensive as Cauliflower.” All designed to deceive and hide true inflation. Be careful out there when shopping. Things are not what they seem to appear on the surface.

#29 zee on 01.13.16 at 6:24 pm

Hey Garth

What will a rate cut do though for the economy. I keep hearing it will happen but all this will do is increase the housing bubble. So why do this.

And the reason we are in this mess is Harper’s mishandling of the economy, cant blame T2. Harper pushed Housing and was doing it in his last election campaign.

#30 I'm stupid on 01.13.16 at 6:25 pm

No one will care… We’ll just follow the me PM’s lead and get high and go on vacation. Apparently 3 months on the job is deserving of a vacation, while the economy implodes around him.

#31 S.Bby on 01.13.16 at 6:25 pm

No problems here in Vantown. Crispy & Co. will introduce aid for first time home buyers in the next budget which will goose prices says a Sauder Business prof.

Vancouver building permits are the highest ever on record.

Ozzie Jurock says China stock market turmoil will drive even more cash into safe BC real estate.

People cashing out of their US recreational property to take advantage of the low dollar so say two US realtors who were interviewed for the local news. More dollars to bring home to Canada.

Royal LePage predicts another banner year for YVR real estate.

Move along, nothing to see here…

#32 Jimbo on 01.13.16 at 6:26 pm

There goes my trip to Fargo

#33 Lead Paint on 01.13.16 at 6:27 pm

Not the right forum to discuss the new Star Wars film, except to say that the Empire keeps investing in real estate, and it never works out well for them either.

#34 Fred on 01.13.16 at 6:27 pm

I think JT said “sunny ways”, but meant to say “sunny days”.

#35 Doug t on 01.13.16 at 6:27 pm

Meh just wait for China to continue devaluing it’s currency this year – and once the “media” finally realizes all this McJob creation in the U.S. Really doesn’t add anything of value to to their economy, well folks it will make 2008 look like a walk in the park

#36 Black and White Cat Black and White Cake on 01.13.16 at 6:27 pm

What to do, in these volatile times, for those fortunate enough to have some cash available for the TFSA? This question comes to mind while thinking of the haunting call of the loons, during late evenings at the lake last summer.
Invest now or wait? And if the decision is to do it now, should it be hedged or non-hedged on U.S. and global equities? And if it’s adding to maple in a diversified portfolio, is it best to add now or could we shortly see the TSX below 12,000? Strange days have found us.

#37 broader mind on 01.13.16 at 6:27 pm

So the mighty U.S. wants to sell some oil. Guessing Saudi wants to make bloody sure they don’t make a single penny selling reserves. Saudi’s going to make large Texans look like ants. The term “big hat no cattle” comes to mind.

#38 Robert on 01.13.16 at 6:28 pm

Garth i do respect much of what you say in regards to Real Estate and to Demographics but your mantra of don’t worry about the markets makes me shake my head. I have been in cash since just before Xmas based on what the charts were telling me. Royal Bank of Scotland sent a letter out to their entire customer base recommending their clients sell everything. The last time they did this was leading into 2008 and as a result they saved their clients alot of pain. At what point would you throw in the towel and recommend the same for your clients? Dow 7000?

Fear is the enemy of successful investors. Get over it. — Garth

#39 Joe Schmoe on 01.13.16 at 6:28 pm

This is going to be a mess.

Market volatility is what it is…up/down…rinse repeat, but our economy is going to suck for more than a few years.

I met with my wife’s accountant last night…some interesting tales to say the least. This tax grab on the 1% will be very short lived. There will be a positive increase in 2015 YE….then nothing. People with sole proprietorships are collapsing retained earnings. Saving 8% by taking it all out in 2015.

Most are paying down debt which means nothing to the economy. Nothing to the TSX. Nothing to the local BMW dealers.

Thankfully I am non indebted and inherently cheap. Be interesting to watch from the sidelines for the next 2-3 years.

#40 Jonathan on 01.13.16 at 6:28 pm

And yet you’d think our economy would have been better managed through all the years of Conservative federal and provincial governments that talk about fiscal responsibility, but do the opposite.

Garth, I’m curious – you have spent time in politics and are familiar with both major parties……

What is it, in the very DNA of Conservatives, that makes them such complete and utter mental defectives when it comes to leadership and stewardship of an economy?

#41 David on 01.13.16 at 6:28 pm

But neither are they being addressed.

You’ve made your aversion to accommodative fiscal and monetary policy very clear. So an honest question then: what would be your policy prescription to address the economic situation? How would you increase demand?

I’m genuinely interested in a post on this should you be interested in fleshing out your position.

#42 Anthony on 01.13.16 at 6:31 pm

Weed tourism will save Canada! Seriously though, the legalization of weed will be a benefit to government finances but will be a drop in the bucket.

In Toronto we need to grow our health and technology industries to create some exports. Tory has been on it, he spoke at TechToronto last night.

Tory said more needs to be done to support entrepreneurs and that “kids need be taught how to create a job instead of taught to get a job”. He gets it. Hopefully he shared some of that today with Trudeau.

#43 Burnaby Boy on 01.13.16 at 6:32 pm

Oh! Sunny days ahead. I thought he said, “Sunni days ahead.” Silly me!

#44 Fed-up on 01.13.16 at 6:33 pm

#12 Rick on 01.13.16 at 6:11 pm
Well, my balanced portfolio has taken a beating since mid December. I’m so happy my money is invested:(

—————————————————————————–

FYI the best action is no action. And concerns over a balanced portfolio returning nothing in almost 2 years , makes you a short term thinker. I’m not sure when short term becomes a long term issue, but I’m told that we are not there yet.

A balanced portfolio returned about 8% in 2014 and about 1% last year. In other words, it did what it was designed to do. — Garth

#45 prairiegopher on 01.13.16 at 6:34 pm

Interesting how the Conservative brand inspired confidence. Everyone here and abroad knows we are more concerned with weed, selfies and being a rock star than minding the store. In four years we will be the “joke” of the world. Be careful what you wish for folks!

#46 Freedom First on 01.13.16 at 6:35 pm

#11 Freedom First

This is an impostor. You can probably tell though. What they wrote is stupid. And, dishonest. Shame on you. Speak like a man. Pussy.

#47 JG on 01.13.16 at 6:35 pm

I think we will all be potheads by the time the Fibs are done with us. how else are we gunna cope? LOL

#48 Penny Henny on 01.13.16 at 6:36 pm

#6 Josh in Calgary on 01.13.16 at 6:08 pm
Garth I know you say it’s best not to try to time the market, but man it looks compelling to just get out of the way of this train wreck for a few months. At least convert all maple equity into US dollars.

The best action is no action. — Garth
////////////////////////////////////////

Those would not be considered words of wisdom if a train was coming down the tracks you were walking on.

Should I throw a LOL on the end of that like Daisy Mae?

What train, drama queen? — Garth

#49 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 01.13.16 at 6:38 pm

Oil drop is now is -71% peak to bottom. That makes it the worst in history. Worse than ’09 at -68%, worse than ’98 at -54%, worse than ’93 or ’86 (-65%, -63%).

All while global demand and global GDP are increasing. The glut will turn into a major deficit if there is no Global recession.

#50 Rates on 01.13.16 at 6:40 pm

Lowering rates when the dollar is plunging. This is a dangerous game they are playing, what if there is a run on the currency and it gets below 60… or lower?

Price of everything will then rise very fast. But hey, as long as they post the CPI at 1% then I guess there is no inflation. If they say so it must be true.

#51 Ex-Cowtown on 01.13.16 at 6:41 pm

Not sure about your oil prices in the article, O Bearded One. You may be mixin’ and matchin’ numbers. The Western Canada Select price differential is still around $15/bbl, so oil the price TODAY is around $16, not $10. Not that it makes a difference, as the oilpatch is deep in the death zone anyway.

Also,when T2 and the Sunshine Band were elected WCS differential it was around $14, so $46.90 -$14.00 = $32.90, not $19.

Sorry to nit-pick, but much more math like that and your blog dogs will think you’re trying to get on permanent with the Canadian Real Estate Board, or that you want to be one of Nutley’s, Whynes, and T2’s Carbon Tax advisors.

All oil numbers in US$, and correct. — Garth

#52 Spaccone on 01.13.16 at 6:42 pm

Trying to find a similiar past pattern/”energy” in the TSX, feels like we are mimicking 2001-2002…if so I think we are anywhere from Feb-Apr ’01 and would have 20% down to go if it matches the late Sep ’01 flush. Market went down more during that time frame because it had gone up relatively more in 2000 than the current TSX bull. Of course, next week/month to me it will look like a completely different pattern from a different time period.

#53 MSM-Free Zone on 01.13.16 at 6:43 pm

“…..Of course, the collapse in oil, the crushing of the dollar, mounting inflation, investment losses, layoffs, job stress and disappointment weren’t caused by a government elected three months ago……”
_____________________________

Tell that to all the illiterate RoFo-luvin’, gun-totin’, truck-drivin’, freedom-luvin’ banjo-pickers with nowhere to post, now that Sun Media has shut down the comments section to their heavily editorialized ‘news articles’.

Seems Sun News didn’t like the idea of ‘freedom of speech’ exposing their ideologically-twisted mindset. With nowhere to post now, these coolaid-drinking Tonald Dump wannabes have recently flocked to the Globe and CBC to pillage those message boards with their mindless, ignorant vitriol.

#54 Mike on 01.13.16 at 6:45 pm

The government could hurry and go buy a load of powerball tickets tonight.

#55 Harper's Fault on 01.13.16 at 6:45 pm

But, Garth, can we at least agree that the economic mess we are in in largely to blame on the Harper government? It created a housing bubble and made our economy over-dependent on oil/commodity industries. As you say, the firsr is not a real/healthy economy. So Harper made us a one-trick pony. Now the pony is dying and we have no other animals to fall back on. (No, our pussy PM does not count.) Harper simply had to go, for this and many other reasons.

#56 Coolie nation on 01.13.16 at 6:46 pm

Seriously Canada is the only 1st world G7 nation whos currency value plummets by significant amounts every decade or so.

Why is that? Partly because this country is run by dopes (regardless of party).

The other major reason is we would rather scuttle the difficult long term investment jobs like tech, bio, space, green engineering etc.. in favor of oil drilling and other “pull crap from the ground” jobs.

All so people in this country can drive around in a massive american pickup trucks with skidoos in tow.

In other words we’re a nation of coolies.

#57 That guy on 01.13.16 at 6:48 pm

Why so butthurt about not continuing the war on weed? You think people should be “free” from the burden of things like CPP and EI because grrr taxes, and starve to death if they didn’t get private third party financial advice (such as what you offer), yet the same people should not be free to smoke “unwholesome” herbs that are less toxic than cigarettes?

I never took you for a social conservative/reactionary, Garth. Then again, you did use to write for The Sun, no? Old habits die hard.

I’d rather you focus on the issues, between stuff like selfie nation and your faux concern with the price of thoroughly unappetizing vegetables, lately you’ve been writing like people with Tourette’s talk. Do try to stay focused, you wouldn’t want to be lie the ADD-riddled millennials you love to make fun of because they don’t share the exact same worldview you have.

#58 Cici on 01.13.16 at 6:48 pm

True-dope better put out his joint and come to Bill’s (and the rest of the nation’s) rescue…sorry Justin, I know it’s not your fault, but still…time to come out of hiding.

Now I truly understand why Harper “lost” the last election and the reason behind the Elfin deity’s early demise (yes, he saw this trainwreck coming at him full speed)

#59 slick on 01.13.16 at 6:52 pm

#17 Mark;
I’ll take the opposing view.
I think the BOC has to cut, just to show they are doing something in regards to the price of oil, stock markets flopping, and the drooping dollarette.
Oddly, I paid down most of our business loans last year.
Kinda wish I had borrowed more instead of paying off debt.

slick

#60 majoritymeansneverhavingtosayimsorry on 01.13.16 at 6:53 pm

“Of course, the collapse in oil, the crushing of the dollar, mounting inflation, investment losses, layoffs, job stress and disappointment weren’t caused by a government elected three months ago.”

d’uh

“But neither are they being addressed.”

It’s probably possible to work towards legalizing pot at the same time as rushing infrastructure projects and planning how to bring the GST back to normal, you know, because those are three things done by three ministers.

This is a change from the Neo-fascist we endured prior to JT, but hardly anything to complain about.

If the liberals had locked kicked all the reporters out and locked the doors for 3 months, then passed every policy initiative in one mega-omnibus bill, that would have been more to your liking?

Anyway, this is just another entry in “The Right-Wing Agenda that Cried Wolf”; why don’t you wait until there is actually something to complain about, rather than just making everyone tone-out the noise of your bleating?

#61 Freedom First on 01.13.16 at 6:54 pm

Yes. As I said 2 years ago, Canadians have been sleeping.

Canadians are arriving at the moment of truth. Handling ones financial affairs is much like sailing a boat. A good skipper will sail smoothly through the choppy waters with a calm skillful confidence, making everything look easy and graceful. He will have checked that his boat is in excellent condition, and know exactly what to do in every situation.

The savvy true investors will be properly diversified and balanced, have liquidity, cash and cash flow, 0 debt, and will be feasting on the opportunistic bargains as they arise. As always.

The ill informed and unaware will be shipwrecked. As always.

It is why there is only a 1%.

#62 JSS on 01.13.16 at 6:56 pm

I am tempted to borrow from HELOC and buy US currency.
Anyone else in?

#63 Nanaimo Bar on 01.13.16 at 6:56 pm

#17 Mark

“The BoC won’t want to be seen fomenting a further drop in the CAD$/USD$ pair, which, although largely outside of the purview of interest rate policy, “perception is reality”.
——————————————————————
I am in the camp that there will be a rate cut with the USD/CAN at 1.4360 as of today. But, I also share your thoughts as to why there will be no rate cut. However, there are five currency/oil trading until Wednesday. Five days ago, the USD/CAD was trading at $1.4060 or so. Five days can sometimes be a long time in the currency market. If the CAN drops significantly further before Wednesday, the rate cut could be off.

#64 broader mind on 01.13.16 at 6:59 pm

Preferreds are now at the level in which they are pricing in negative interest rates from the BOC gang. Do you still believe this will not happen?

#65 Freeman on 01.13.16 at 7:00 pm

If this transport index chart is any indication, the stock markets are going to fall between 35% and 50% over the next 12 months:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRAN&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p95696037966

When stock markets crash like that, it usually results in a NASTY RECESSION, and that usually results in a huge drop in house prices, of at least 30% also.

#66 waiting on the westcoast on 01.13.16 at 7:00 pm

The BoC shouldn’t cut but they will… the dollar be damned. They may be preserving some of the commodity jobs but they are creating a massive incentive for our knowledge workers to bail… that is sad.

The problem is that our leaders (and therefore we who elected them) followed a strategy that provides some solid short term gains. We should be building out economy on building things that are hard. Getting good at doing hard things is what makes individuals, companies and countries great!

One good thing about the drop in price of oil is that all the companies are learning to become significantly more efficient. That will translate into better productivity once the cycle switched back.

Mark – nice to see the acknowledgement on foodstuffs’ inflation.

#67 Ed on 01.13.16 at 7:00 pm

I checked the price of cauliflower today in San Diego…$3.99 each USD ….not quite a pound each I estimated…so like $6.50/lb CAN each….I guess the US is in trouble too?

#68 gut check on 01.13.16 at 7:03 pm

It’s so true what they say about Mark.
His posts are the anti-reality

#69 Sheane Wallace on 01.13.16 at 7:03 pm

el idiotas will cut the rates, he is that stupid.
CAD will plunge.

This will generate sufficient momentum to surpass the 1.5 mark. (.67)
We will hit 1.6, no worries. (.61) and even go lower.

As for the ‘no action’ advise:

Markets could be further down 20-25 % and stay there for few years so if you need the money or some of it sooner, convert to stable (non CAD!) bonds/stable currencies.

On the LONG TERM outlook I agree with Garth, just ride it on with whatever portion of your portfolio that will not give you hearth attack down when it dives.

But I can not stress enough the importance of staying away from ANY CAD nominated paper – stocks or bonds.

Target Europe and US, even Japan and Euro, CHF, USD.

#70 Kreditanstalt on 01.13.16 at 7:04 pm

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-13/canadians-panic-food-prices-soar-collapsing-currency

But these governments all WANT price inflation…despite telling us “inflation is negligible”.

“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon”.

#71 Only-inflation-to-reduce-debt-burden on 01.13.16 at 7:05 pm

Thanks to PM Fear (S.harper), the only contributor to the mess Canada finds herself in has been dirty oil, which was trading at $46.90 on election day and has since wilted 34%, or $19 a can.

The lower dollar will soon translate into jobs, jobs. Stimulating the economy by building cities translates into jobs, jobs.

Lower interest rates translates into jobs, jobs.

Ideal geographic location (fresh water) attracts migrations which translates into jobs, jobs.

Prepare, prepare and they will come….

Belittling those who are bringing on positive change only demonstrates the joke the speaker is becoming…

And legalizing weed will keep many of our sons and daughters out of prison, keep cops focus on real crime, take jobs away from lawyers and judges and bring in a whole lot of money to the Canadian economy…..

#72 Smartalox on 01.13.16 at 7:07 pm

@Tom from Mississauga (#9)

Harper’s infrastructure program (circa 2009) was to give everyone tax breaks for investing in their on homes: the “Home Renovation Tax Credit” did little for the wider economy but encourage people to max out their home equity lines of credit so that they could upgrade to granite countertops and stainless steel appliances. Now personal indebtedness is at record levels, with foreclosures up 30% in Alberta.

A responsible infrastructure program invests in the types of projects that improve economic efficiency and competitiveness. Projects like roads that transport goods to markets, vital transportation links like bridges that promote trade, projects that reduce the costs of doing business, like reducing the cost of power generation.

#73 Sheane Wallace on 01.13.16 at 7:07 pm

#70 Kreditanstalt

Yep, I consider anyone listening to Poloz (the half brained in charge of BOC) and believing him that there is no inflation and that he knows what he is doing as a complete certifiable idiot.

#74 Sheane Wallace on 01.13.16 at 7:11 pm

#71 Only-inflation-to-reduce-debt-burden on 01.13.16 at 7:05 pm
Thanks to PM Fear (S.harper), the only contributor to the mess Canada finds herself in has been dirty oil, which was trading at $46.90 on election day and has since wilted 34%, or $19 a can.

The lower dollar will soon translate into jobs, jobs. Stimulating the economy by building cities translates into jobs, jobs.

Lower interest rates translates into jobs, jobs.

———————–

Lower interest rates translate into inflation.

Just watch going forward how there would be NO NEW JOBS, on the contrary- JOBS WILL BE LOST and the economy will keep contracting in real terms accompanied by horrific inflation.

We can not compete with foreign cheap labour (S. Harper’s wet dream) in the current economic environment.

#75 TRT on 01.13.16 at 7:12 pm

Libs and Poloz are idiots.

Kicking the can further down the road with the RE bubble inflated by foreign money and immigration.

Pop the bubble quickly, reset the economy and move on.

Only with low RE can rates be moved higher ever again. That’s why the forecast for 59 cent loonie cuz they know these idiots can’t do the right thing for Canada.

#76 April. on 01.13.16 at 7:13 pm

Well, let’s get on with legalizing weed then. We know that the tax revenues on that alone would finance any amount of pie in the sky. But, oh no, let’s continue to tie our hopes to the leaden balloon of oil. Geeeeeez.

#77 Sheane Wallace on 01.13.16 at 7:16 pm

This is why you stay away from anything denominated in CAD:
—————————-
No “Jack Nasty” it’s not The Great Depression, but as we highlighted three weeks ago, it is Canada’s depression and it’s likely to get worse before it gets better. “Last year, fruits and veggies jumped in price between 9.1 and 10.1 per cent, according to an annual report by the Food Institute at the University of Guelph,” CBC said on Tuesday. “The study predicts these foods will continue to increase above inflation this year, by up to 4.5 per cent for some items.”

If you thought we were being hyperbolic when we suggested that if oil prices don’t rise soon, Canadians may well eat themselves to death, consider the following from Diana Bronson, the executive director of Food Secure Canada:

“Lower- and middle-class people — many who can’t find a job that will pay them enough to ensure that they can afford a healthy diet for their families” — also feel the pinch of rising food prices”

“The wrong kind of food is cheap, and the right kind of food is still expensive.”
In other words, some now fear that the hardest hit parts of the country may experience a spike in obesity rates as Canadians resort to cheap, unhealthy foods. As we put it, “in Alberta it’s ‘feast or famine’ in the most literal sense of the phrase as those who can still afford to buy food will drown their sorrows in cheap lunch meat and off-brand ice cream while the most hard hit members of society are forced to tap increasingly overwhelmed food banks.”

And the rub is that there’s really nothing anyone can do about it.

Were the Bank of Canada to adopt pro-cyclical measures to shore up the loonie, they would risk choking off economic growth just as the crude downturn takes a giant bite out of the economy – no food pun intended.

#78 Ilovejustin on 01.13.16 at 7:19 pm

Trudeau is going to save the day just wait. Marijuana sales will fill government coffers the way oil never could these old economy boomers view of the way the world should work is over. Bring on hope and change !

#79 Rainclouds on 01.13.16 at 7:25 pm

About that weed thingy.

This little establishment Generated 500k in Tax in a 12 month period.

http://www.cannarex.net/index.php

Not sure how much in policing, Judicial, and penal costs were also saved but assuming an equal amount probably isn’t out of line.

Pretty sure every jurisdiction will be eager to realize this new source of revenue…………

Think Ill wait a bit before condemning T2.

#80 Jack Smith on 01.13.16 at 7:29 pm

Canadian and U.S. bond yields were supposed to going higher over the last 2 years but they are getting more dismal and lower by the day.

Canada 2, 5, 10, 20, 30 years are 0.30%, 0.51%, 1.21%, 1.98%, 2.01%.

They were as high as 2.45% just 2 months ago in November-2015.

Last year Canada’s 30 year reached as low as 1.83% with all the Greece drama and falling oil prices. So we will have more downward pressure on yields over the next few weeks.

#81 Wpg_Bubble on 01.13.16 at 7:30 pm

There will be no real estate crash in Winnipeg? Really?

December 2015 Update:
http://members.shaw.ca/shomimore/december_wpg_re.jpg

#82 John on 01.13.16 at 7:33 pm

Just received mail from the TD, which explains that as of March 1, transferring your TFSA to another financial institution will cost. Instead of zero cost for transferring a cash TFSA to another bank it will cost $75 plus taxes………. So if some little saver has about $8,000 in a TD TFSA and earns about $44 bucks in interest annually and moves it to say, BeeMO, that cost will exceed the annual interest paid out by TD by almost double. But I suspect that their little investment package products marketed and stashed inside the TD TFSA are loaded with pay nothing Canada savings bonds, topped up with CCC rated oil frackers agony or other such high yield treasures, and they’re getting wacked. And when/if folks ditch all of that garbage they may just move the money out of TD period. Well if you don’t like it and are with TD, move it before March 1, 2015. Other banks may be sending out the same messages. Best strategies always welcome, Garth. Thanks in advance

#83 Retired Boomer WI on 01.13.16 at 7:34 pm

#273 For Those About to Flop….

Hi Flop, Yes, while I have some dry powder now, I am a tad reluctant to deploy it, quite yet.

We are in the low 16’s on the Dow, and I have no idea where it might be headed. So, there is no loss (just now) in waiting.

From all the ‘noise’ available both from MSM as well as the alternates, nobody seems to have a clue! Why be in a hurry to lose money? So what if I don’t catch the ‘bottom’ just now, nobody knows where that bottom might be. Sort of like swimming in a lake you don’t know you walk off a drop off, you don’t know if it goes from 5 feet to 15 feet, or 25 feet. You just know there is ‘no bottom’ just now…

Quarries are famous for the because of the way they were mined out.

Anyhow, don’t know if that made any sense, as for the dry cannon, not, but., Slow cannon…

Anyway, when things move up, they will re-test the lows they almost always do… then I tend to dive back in.

So far, not drowning.

#84 Balmuto on 01.13.16 at 7:36 pm

The CAD has closed down every single day so far in 2016. That’s one heck of a run. I figure it’s due for a dead-cat bounce. Followed by more selling if they cut rates next Wednesday.

#85 Millmech on 01.13.16 at 7:37 pm

I’m trying to figure out how legalizing pot is going to make so much revenue.The grower/dealer selling his 100lbs of pot for tax free money isn’t going to declare his income from it.When it’s legal no worry about cops,hydro,rip offs etc,what’s to stop every guy and his dog from growing something now innocuous as a pepper plant.Why would I buy it from the govt when I can clone my own,as for the tourist they can buy seeds from a guy and get them shipped to them and grow their own.Its not like it hasn’t been done before.

#86 Bobs ur uncle on 01.13.16 at 7:37 pm

For all the white-knuckle folks out there, I found this comment online regarding the RBS call:

“RBS says “Sell Everything!” after carefully securing short positions in everything.”

Made me smile…

#87 tundra pete on 01.13.16 at 7:40 pm

Oil getting closer to $10. T2 and Blair should learn how to make oil out of all that weed they are soon to be growing. In the neighbourhood I come from I think they are getting $25 per gram for that oil. Price that out into a 45 gallon barrel!

The middle east countries are profitable at well under $30. The US is profitable at $65. You could bet the difference between the two, to the exponent of 10 that the Saudis will continue to put downward pressure until we get to $10. Unless of course some other country is also aiding in the downward pressure………..

#88 Arfmooocat on 01.13.16 at 7:42 pm

http://oilpro.com/post/21484/exclusive-husky-energy-to-shut-down-alberta-cold-oil-production-d

#89 Paul on 01.13.16 at 7:45 pm

#30 I’m stupid on 01.13.16 at 6:25 pm

No one will care… We’ll just follow the me PM’s lead and get high and go on vacation. Apparently 3 months on the job is deserving of a vacation, while the economy implodes around him.
————————————————————-
Come on give the poor guy a break! I saw him today worked to the bone he has all the selfies to prove it.
Even his hair doesn’t look nice anymore.

#90 mark on 01.13.16 at 7:46 pm

Hey if WTI goes to $10 what’s the price of WCS? Free and you get a $5 note for your trouble?

#91 fancy_pants on 01.13.16 at 7:48 pm

it smells a bit like 2008. hard to describe. almost like printing presses being warmed up

#92 Herf on 01.13.16 at 7:48 pm

#30 I’m stupid

“No one will care… We’ll just follow the me PM’s lead and get high and go on vacation. Apparently 3 months on the job is deserving of a vacation, while the economy implodes around him.”

He hasn’t even been on the job that long – elected Oct. 19th; sworn in about two weeks later; shut down government for a week or two for Christmas. More like a month-and-a-half, if you want to include his one-week Paris climate-change summit boondogle as “work” rather than as a vacation. I’ll cut him some slack for vacationing for ten days in the Caribbean, justifying the holiday as prepping himself to start the job as PM after a overly long election campaign. I just hope he gets down to brass tacks and works hard at the job and doesn’t turn into even more of an Obama-clone by running away to play golf or vacation (with his entire family) in Hawaii, every time some political or economic crap hits the fan.

#93 takla on 01.13.16 at 7:51 pm

lower low’s and lower High’s continue.watch the s&p for a breach of 1880…then make like a rat off a sinking ship

#94 JimH on 01.13.16 at 7:53 pm

#17 Mark on 01.13.16 at 6:14 pm
“… Although current inflation is minimal (food increases are more than offset by falling energy and transportation costs)…”
================================
Bullshit once more, Mark!

Last Jan 2015, the Canadian overall inflation rate was 1.0%

It hit a low of 0.8% in April, 2015.

The current overall inflation rate is currently running at 1.4%, after running at 1.0% throughout September and October.

” Year-on-year, food prices were up 3.4 percent, after rising 4.1 percent in October. The index for food purchased from stores registered a 3.7 percent gain, following a 4.6 percent increase the previous month. While prices for fresh vegetables and meat contributed the most to the gain, they increased less year over year in November than October. Prices for food purchased from restaurants were up 2.8 percent, following a 2.7 percent increase in October.

The shelter index increased 1.2 percent, following a 1.1 percent gain in Ocober.

The clothing and footwear index increased 2.1 percent, after rising 0.8 percent in October. This acceleration was led by men’s clothing prices, which increased more in the 12 months to November (+3.0 percent) than in October (+0.7 percent). In addition, the jewellery index rose 7.8 percent, its largest increase since October 2013.

The transportation index was down 1.1 percent, after decreasing 3.2 percent the previous month. This smaller decline was mainly attributable to gasoline prices, which fell less in the 12 months to November than in October.”

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/inflation-cpi
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/core-consumer-prices

See a trend? Even with all the lay-offs, fewer driving miles and fewer customers in the retail stores?

Ignorance is supposed to be blissful. If so, you must be on cloud 9.

#95 Frank on 01.13.16 at 7:53 pm

“From 1890 through 2012, home prices adjusted for inflation literally went nowhere. Not a single dime of real growth. For comparison, the S&P 500 increased more than 2,000-fold during that period, adjusted for inflation. ” Robert Schiller”

As a portfolio line item sure but this completely discounts the fact that most people buy a house to fulfill their most basic of needs: shelter. If you count rent inflation into play then home ownership starts to make sense. It’s no coincidence that even rich people own their own homes. You have to live somewhere and based on the underlying fundamentals a home purchase can be a great decision.

It doesn’t make sense to buy in Vancouver but rent is up another 3% this year so those that bought 10 years ago are insulated against a 40% hit and are still laughing.

Look at everything on a case-by-case basis, don’t write a whole category off.

#96 David on 01.13.16 at 7:55 pm

One consolation for falling stock prices is that it my lower my income just enough to allow me to avoid the over $200,000 supertax. I can’t sell because capital gains taxes would nuke me and I’d lose my mostly secure dividend income. So I’ll just sit tight and do nothing, as I did in 2008.

#97 at least I won't have to eat my veggies... on 01.13.16 at 7:55 pm

I’m going to start studying up on survival techniques from the depression era….

#98 Rick on 01.13.16 at 7:56 pm

Fed-up,

I made a very nice profit I crystallized in 2015. Just hate watching my balanced portfolio drop this year. I am a long term investor, been retired since 2004:)

#99 Warren - the lagging indicator on 01.13.16 at 7:58 pm

The way I see it is that the FED/BOC rate policy decisions are mirrored back to the crash in 2000 where after a massive simultaneous series of rate cuts (they ran out of room this time and did not want to go negative which is partially why the recovery is taking so long). Then, the BOC diverged from the FED, raising rates only to drop once again from where they started the misfire of rate increases. The fed began liftoff a few months ahead of the BOC after this reversion but Canada surely followed. Look at the FED/BOC actions mid 2003 onward for a year or two to get insight to exactly what is going to occur hence forth. For gods sake, make some money off it and be happy ok.

#100 Marc in Montréal on 01.13.16 at 7:58 pm

Real Estate in the Province of Quebec / 2014 to 2015

# of condo sales: -9%
# of single-family house sales: -2%

Median price for condos: 0%
Median price for single-family houses: +2%

http://www.tvanouvelles.ca/2016/01/11/les-ventes-de-condos-ont-chute-de-9–en-2015

#101 Arfmooocat on 01.13.16 at 7:59 pm

So it costs you more to fill your gas tank then it costs for six barrels of Canadian Western Select

#102 Herf on 01.13.16 at 8:01 pm

#58 Cici

“Now I truly understand why Harper “lost” the last election and the reason behind the Elfin deity’s early demise (yes, he saw this trainwreck coming at him full speed)”

If you also include Mark Carney, that makes three that bailed out – Larry, Curly and Moe!

#103 Smoking Man on 01.13.16 at 8:03 pm

Love today’s post by Sir Gartho.

Four months ago and going forward Been saying this shit would happen. Been Calling more BOC rate cuts, Called the FED one and done, then reverse. That’s not obvious yet but will be soon.

Yet no accolades for The Great Smoking Man.

Just wondering Garth, did Gloomer Doomer pay up.
………………………………..
Redo
#174 Smoking Man on 12.16.15 at 8:53 am

Love the smell of Money in The Morning !!!!!
USDCAD, locked loaded since June, and waiting for 2pm Lift off. Hell I’m already in Orbit.

Come on Gloom…
Hey Gloomer Doomer, bet your happy you didn’t take my bet.
He took mine. — Garth

#104 JamesA on 01.13.16 at 8:03 pm

The pot trade begins:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/heavy-trading-in-canadian-marijuana-stocks-upon-liberal-victory/article26897954/

and:

http://business.financialpost.com/investing/etfs/dude-wheres-my-pot-etf?__lsa=70b7-b7a8

Its like they say (no idea if its true) that gambling and booze do well in a recession. Some bay street BSD(ipshit) should create a ETF for Pot, Booze and Gambling. I wonder if the ETF symbol EVL is taken.

Whats next on the vice list that we start to promote and tax? I will resist the urge to speculate.

Oh, what a wonderful world.

#105 Popeye the Sailor Man on 01.13.16 at 8:03 pm

Can some one show a link to the Canadian oil being under $10 US

What I find for WCS is around $16

Sure. Here you go. — Garth

#106 Ilovejustin on 01.13.16 at 8:04 pm

#85 Millmech on 01.13.16 at 7:37 pm
I’m trying to figure out how legalizing pot is going to make so much revenue.The grower/dealer selling his 100lbs of pot for tax free money isn’t going to declare his income from it.When it’s legal no worry about cops,hydro,rip offs etc,what’s to stop every guy and his dog from growing something now innocuous as a pepper plant.Why would I buy it from the govt when I can clone my own,as for the tourist they can buy seeds from a guy and get them shipped to them and grow their own.Its not like it hasn’t been done before.
——–
You can grow your own veggies to but I bet ya buy em at the store ? No?

#107 HJD on 01.13.16 at 8:06 pm

Garth, What’s going on? Are you competing with Kevin O’Leary? Can’t you open your mouth without always making snide remarks about our new Liberal and NDP governments? What’s the point of the smart-ass comments you keep directing at Trudeau, Notley and Morneau? You recently lost an election or two. Get over it. The mess left behind by your Conservative friends will take time to straighten out. There are serious challenges ahead. It’s time to be positive and supportive.

I am a political agnostic, as my background attests. Being ‘positive and supportive’ of a government which is doing little so far in the teeth of a storm is to be an ideological sycophant. We’re better than that here at GreaterFool, no? — Garth

#108 Squidly77 on 01.13.16 at 8:06 pm

http://oilpro.com/post/21484/exclusive-husky-energy-to-shut-down-alberta-cold-oil-production-d

And so it starts.

#109 Leo Trollstoy on 01.13.16 at 8:08 pm

it’s like the boc is conspiring to make my fl multiplexes and rent revenue more valuable

#110 SWL1976 on 01.13.16 at 8:09 pm

Of course, the collapse in oil, the crushing of the dollar, mounting inflation, investment losses, layoffs, job stress and disappointment weren’t caused by a government elected three months ago. But neither are they being addressed.

Good point. This comments section is a beast lately.

I can say first hand for sure that things are getting depressing here in Alberta and one can easily see the worry and desperation

#111 salonist on 01.13.16 at 8:12 pm

#74 Millmech

it’s the purse
nobody subtracts from the purse without consequence

besides how do you know about cloning and buying seeds delivered to your door

oh, I see…the nectonite is freelancing on the side,1 off grow and run seminars

#112 experienced.optimist on 01.13.16 at 8:12 pm

“Canadians Panic As Food Prices Soar On Collapsing Currency”

Just got to love the “Zero Guy”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-13/canadians-panic-food-prices-soar-collapsing-currency

Did I get to quote him “first” this time?

#113 Daisy Mae on 01.13.16 at 8:14 pm

“….but he’s started the process towards legalizing weed.”

***********************

Our downfall is beyond Trudeaus’ control. It will take a long time to get back on an even keel. Five years of hell? Legalized marijuana will generate much needed revenue. It’s a medicinal alternative, anyway — used freely.

You miss the point. Is this the current priority? – Garth

#114 For those about to flop... on 01.13.16 at 8:15 pm

With their acquisition of Shaw media at least Corus got something for their 2.65 billion dollars ,unlike Terry Taxpayer who got a bag full of air for their 2.6 billion…

M41BC

#115 Mark on 01.13.16 at 8:16 pm

“It hit a low of 0.8% in April, 2015.

The current overall inflation rate is currently running at 1.4%, after running at 1.0% throughout September and October.

Yeah, quite minimal indeed. Consistent with my point that inflation of any significance (ie: greater than the BoC’s stated 2% mandate) is non-existent, as the food inflation has been counterbalanced with energy deflation.

So what’s your point? I do believe some pressures are building further out in time which may cause the BoC to pause and not cut rates in the present. But such pressures should abate in the next few quarters and the BoC, with a CAD/USD$ back in the 1.2-1.3 range, will have the all-clear to reduce the policy rate eventually down to zero.

#116 Fed-up on 01.13.16 at 8:17 pm

A balanced portfolio returned about 8% in 2014 and about 1% last year. In other words, it did what it was designed to do. — Garth
————————————————————————–

What it was designed to do?

Those tiny “returns” gone as of today’s carnage. And last year’s supposed 1% gain can be considered a significant loss when we remove the USD stomping the CAD.

If I invested $100K USD that exchanged at $1.15 CAD (so $115,000 CAD) on Dec 1st 2015 then that fell to 90K USD that exchanged at $1.40 CAD (so $126,000 CAD) on Dec 31st 2015, that’s still a $10,000 USD or $14,000 CAD loss, not an $11,000 overall gain to pump up performance figures, I’m sorry.

Let’s leave the franken-numbers to the realtors.

The 10-year return of such a portfolio is a little over 7%. Most people are happy with that. I am. — Garth

#117 Fed-up on 01.13.16 at 8:19 pm

#98 Rick on 01.13.16 at 7:56 pm
Fed-up,

I made a very nice profit I crystallized in 2015. Just hate watching my balanced portfolio drop this year. I am a long term investor, been retired since 2004:)

——————————————————————–

Glad to see you were pro-active last year Rick.

Enjoy your retirement and let’s hope for the best.

#118 common sense on 01.13.16 at 8:19 pm

Smoking Man…

Once again a sincere thank you for introducing me to the joys of FX Trading….I don’t t need a million to retire but I’m well on the way to my humble goal thing I set.

It’s like shooting fish in a barrel right now even without a 800 IQ. A once in a lifetime opportunity!

Thank you from me and my lovely daughter.

Grasshopper.

I’m buying at Seneca whenever!

#119 james on 01.13.16 at 8:25 pm

#95 Frank – the realtor troll

“As a portfolio line item sure but this completely discounts the fact that most people buy a house to fulfill their most basic of needs: shelter. If you count rent inflation into play then home ownership starts to make sense.”

Huh? What kind of gobbledygook is that, Frank?

You invented a new term to try to scare renters into buying, “rent inflation”.

LOL!

Any evidence rents have gone up by more than inflation? Didn’t think so……

“From 1890 through 2012, home prices adjusted for inflation literally went nowhere. ” (Schiller)

Of course, being very careful, Schiller does not even include other major home costs that we all know about:

-maintenance (massive over decades)
-upgrading/exchange of appliances
-property taxes (rent DOES include these, which further erodes your realtor-speak argument)
-transactions costs of @ 5% per sale
-special assessments on condo-type properties

Add in THOSE real $$ items that owners must pay, and homes over time do even WORSE than the inflation rate – they lose money based on these omissions in Schiller’s analysis.

Of course most homeowners, and their enabling realtors, like Frank, casually gloss over all these expenses which reduce actual returns on capital.

You are such an obvious trolling goof, Frank.

#120 common sense on 01.13.16 at 8:30 pm

Shaene Wallace:

Always love your posts..clear , concise and smart.

MARK. Take note. Please. For all of us.

Freedom First #61

I love to grind you but you write a good post when you state a truth without bringing your PERSONAL lifestyle choices into them…Solid post. Thanks.

#121 Why Why Jay on 01.13.16 at 8:30 pm

@#85 Millmech
“I’m trying to figure out how legalizing pot is going to make so much revenue… Why would I buy it from the govt when I can clone my own?..”

I know right? Just like everyone grows their own tobacco and brews their own beer and vints their own wine and distils their own liquor.

Selling marijuana through stores will generate tax revenue and it will kill most of the illegal market.

Do you buy loosies and moonshine? Most people are going to go the legal route.

#122 Murphy on 01.13.16 at 8:31 pm

“When a government is dependant upon bankers for money, they and not the leaders of government control the situation, since the hand that gives is above the hand that takes.
Money has no motherland; financiers are without patriotism and without decency; their sole object is gain”.
—Napoleon Bonaparte

#123 Daisy Mae on 01.13.16 at 8:31 pm

#16: “It’s time to find a piece of land build a tiny house and grow my own food, rain water catchment and practicing composting toilet…. Hmmmm!!!!”

****************

Well, we went on our merry way– spending and consuming. Now it’s ‘payback’ time. We’ll revert to the norm. The pendulum swings, as it always does.

#124 Priorities - Realties.ca on 01.13.16 at 8:33 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/01/13/priorities/ […]

#125 Trojan House on 01.13.16 at 8:34 pm

#8 lifeisgood on 01.13.16 at 6:09 pm
#20 Mark on 01.13.16 at 6:18 pm

http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Adjusted_Stock_Price/NYSE_Inflation_adjusted_stock_price.asp

http://www.moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm

http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-total-returns.htm

#126 BG on 01.13.16 at 8:35 pm

If the economy is going to suck that much, we might as well all start smoking weed.
So maybe Trudeau is actually a visionary.

The drop in stock markets today finished wiping out anything I had earn since starting investing a the end of 2013.

My portfolio will be all red tomorrow.
MF, we should start a club.

Stop investing. You’re obviously not cut out for it. Go visit the Jar Lady. — Garth

#127 DON on 01.13.16 at 8:37 pm

“Of course, the collapse in oil, the crushing of the dollar, mounting inflation, investment losses, layoffs, job stress and disappointment weren’t caused by a government elected three months ago. But neither are they being addressed.”
*************************
I think we have to feel the pain before this can be turned around. What can be done, reinstate the TFSA contributions, income splitting or just a slow grind back in another direction?

“The prime minister may not have moved to restore confidence in Canada, or even to speak on the issue, but he’s started the process towards legalizing weed. He knows who elected him.”

I always thought that legalization in Canada would be triggered by the need for a new income stream.

#128 Daisy Mae on 01.13.16 at 8:38 pm

#28: “Today, I was shopping at Save On Foods and noticed a sign that read, “Cauliflower – $2.99.” With Garth Turner’s advise about hoarding Cauliflower ringing in my ears, I ran up to the bin. Yes, it was $2.99 but they had cut the Cauliflower head into four pieces. So the $2.99 was for only a quarter of a Cauliflower head. So this will be the beginning of fewer potatoes in a sack. Less parsley leaves in a bunch…”

****************

Kinda reminds me of the metric conversion — smaller portions, same price.

#129 Smoking Man on 01.13.16 at 8:39 pm

#118 common sense on 01.13.16 at 8:19 pm
Smoking Man…

Once again a sincere thank you for introducing me to the joys of FX Trading….I don’t t need a million to retire but I’m well on the way to my humble goal thing I set.

It’s like shooting fish in a barrel right now even without a 800 IQ. A once in a lifetime opportunity!

Thank you from me and my lovely daughter.

Grasshopper.

I’m buying at Seneca whenever!
….

Your welcome, off to Seneca Friday night. No need to buy me a drink. I get them for free….

Glad your doing well, just keep a close eye on, the Saudi vs Iran shit…

Only thing that can bite you hard at this moment in time.

Enjoy the ride….

#130 common sense on 01.13.16 at 8:40 pm

We are living in interesting times…

If you have the money that you can AFFORD to lose in the case of an unforseen situation ..aka war, etc that could turn the CDN economy aka oil around in a second and would like to take a risk, the time is upon us…

The above is not a prudent text book financial 100 piece of advice that ANY investment advisor would give but as a person who saves, etc waiting years and seeking the right special opportunity, it seems now is right to fully long the USD….with minimal risk.

Comments?

#131 Shelly Bong on 01.13.16 at 8:40 pm

DELETED

#132 George on 01.13.16 at 8:43 pm

15.96
▲ 0.33 (+2.1%)
WCS USD/bbl where do you get under ten from?

Crude at $10 already a reality for Canadian Oil-Sands Producers” — Garth

#133 Freedom First on 01.13.16 at 8:43 pm

#62 JSS

That would be known as buying at the top, or close to it.
Probably better off by simply stocking up on non-perishables you use in your household. Then relax. Stay calm. No fear.

#134 conan on 01.13.16 at 8:44 pm

Time for innovation!!

Doing my bit…… I am currently working on a process that will turn oil into cauliflower.

Counting the dollars Baby!!!

#135 common sense on 01.13.16 at 8:45 pm

As I am in such a thankful mood tonight..

Kudos for Garth for this fine blog and to those who mentioned Zero Hedge and David Stockman to round out my daily reading…Between the 3 forums and the comments that they generate, I’ve gained so much more knowledge and understanding.

And the truth received is somewhere in the mix of the various viewpoints given daily.

Thank you all. I sincerely appreciate it!

Two too many. — Garth

#136 Tax Hash Oil Candy.... on 01.13.16 at 8:45 pm

the next big fad….big bucks for the Maple gov….

go for it T2….

#137 Julie K. on 01.13.16 at 8:46 pm

Sh*t.

I want the Greater Fool Complaint Department please.

Would like to suggest a disclaimer posted clearly at the top of the daily feed that warns one may fall ill after reading.

Thank you kindly for your consideration.

#138 Ontario's Left Coast on 01.13.16 at 8:46 pm

Another day, another drop… So, which do you think it’s going to be this year?

1) As goes January, so goes the year, or
2) U.S. election-driven stock rebound

One thing’s for sure: Worst. Santa. Rally. Ever!

#139 crossbordershopper on 01.13.16 at 8:47 pm

cant wait till this powerball thing is over and real crossborder people have less of a line up. thats why i want the dollar to go down, traffic.
yes canada is toast, from coast to coast. next handle is a 5 on the dollar. we havent even seen the effects of lower rates, and poor growth ahead, if were at 69.5 now, we havent even started, it can go to 1.6 to 1.7 range on the cross.
so….. if your a 1% er or want to be one, then pack your bags and make real money and pay less taxes. does anyone know the increased 2015 taxes at the fed and provincial level.
if the 264000 people leave, or say 10%, tax revenue decreases 2%. deficits in the 20 billion before you even start ever year from here on end. no oil royalties and all the little people will receive more money for more babies.

#140 Ronaldo on 01.13.16 at 8:50 pm

Everything is so temporary.

Especially the time we waste worrying about that which we cannot control. — Garth

#141 common sense on 01.13.16 at 8:52 pm

Witnessed in Buffalo, Ny this afternoon..

Literally a MOB of Canadians buying POWERBALL tickets at a 7-11 (get this) because they were taking CDN MONEY at par for the ticket purchases!!!!!!

I wonder where the manager is working tomorrow when he didn’t read the memo on exchange rates.

Busiest I’ve seen the Peace Bridge this year to date.

Un – Real. Only in America.

#142 Bottoms_Up on 01.13.16 at 8:56 pm

I wonder if Colin bought half a house?

After yesterday’s comments section, I hear he’s in therapy. — Garth

#143 common sense on 01.13.16 at 8:58 pm

#135 Mr. Turner

Respectfully, they (HEDGE – STOCKMAN) are truly SALES PEOPLE as you have claimed in the past but they do have some valid charts and info once you get past the BS and slant.

We’re all sales people to a degree aren’t we?

#144 Trailer Park buoy on 01.13.16 at 8:59 pm

Wheel guessn hafta eat the cheep foodz
til me hellth dateareerates,
good thing i gotz the free Canadien health care,
till itz knot

#145 Brian Ripley on 01.13.16 at 9:02 pm

“…the recent plunge in commodity prices has thrown a proverbial spanner in the works, with grim implications for investment…” David Madani

I have several charts tracking deflation. My “TSX” chart looks like 2008 except as many here have noted, 4Q 2015 is much different than 2008…not in a good way:

http://www.chpc.biz/tsx-indexes.html

And I have my Housing Starts Charts updated with the latest data:
http://www.chpc.biz/housing-starts.html

Canada -24% M/M
ON -43% M/M
AB -47% M/M
QC +22% M/M
BC +25 % M/M

Actually Y/Y data is all up (up 3.3% nationally), but I imagine the marginal developers are rethinking their plans for 2016 as Madani warns.

#146 Only-inflation-to-reduce-debt-burden on 01.13.16 at 9:03 pm

#74 Sheane Wallace—-

The US has used our economy before and will yet again as we are as close to being Yankee as they get… With a cheap CDN $ they get American quality goods which means jobs, jobs, jobs for the young Canadian…

We’ve been here before with a low dollar and so we’ll grow out of this mess yet again….

All this cauliflower fear is so vegetable stew… get over it and get to work….

Same as before,,, Commodities growing our economy is over for a period… Ontario jobs to the rescue…

#147 Give a mortgage to anyone on 01.13.16 at 9:05 pm

I got my first pay stub for 2016 today and noticed the Trudeau tax cut. Given the Canadian dollar has dropped so much, I’m not sure I’ll be much better off, though. I expect I’ll be paying a lot more for food and imported goods.

#148 Ronaldo on 01.13.16 at 9:06 pm

#62 JSS on 01.13.16 at 6:56 pm
”I am tempted to borrow from HELOC and buy US currency.
Anyone else in?”

Your a bit late to the party aren’t you JSS? I just cashed mine in 1.4147 for a 47% return. Bought May 1st 2011 when dollar was at 1.06.

#149 dosouth on 01.13.16 at 9:07 pm

Third rate cut in 12 months brought to you by the previous louts in gov’t…..should be the lead in. But hey, I see negative rates a comin’

#150 Smoking Man on 01.13.16 at 9:07 pm

#107 HJD on 01.13.16 at 8:06 pm
Garth, What’s going on? Are you competing with Kevin O’Leary? Can’t you open your mouth without always making snide remarks about our new Liberal and NDP governments? What’s the point of the smart-ass comments you keep directing at Trudeau, Notley and Morneau? You recently lost an election or two. Get over it. The mess left behind by your Conservative friends will take time to straighten out. There are serious challenges ahead. It’s time to be positive and supportive.

I am a political agnostic, as my background attests. Being ‘positive and supportive’ of a government which is doing little so far in the teeth of a storm is to be an ideological sycophant. We’re better than that here at GreaterFool, no? — Garth
….

Dear HJD. I’m not politicaly agnostic. I hate liberals.
For good reason. They’re idiots and thieving back room crooks.

I bet your young, probably like that show my wife always puts on that pisses me off, the social. Makes you feel safe, just like when you were on school.

Well in the real world, you dont fell that safe, eat or be eaten is how it is.

Teacher never put that lesson on the black board I bet.
obey me, I will certify you as a worthy slave. And you can get that good job, that white picket fence.

You lose.

Liberals are clueless, they brain wash fools like you into thinking, yeah social justice.

T2 taken Lear jets to island’s, Economy is going to shit, what’s it been, 8 weeks? You ain’t seen nothing yet.

Read me as much as you can.

Think of my as the excorist that beats out stupidity and brings in pure logic.

My methods, a bit unconventional.

#151 BG on 01.13.16 at 9:07 pm

#126 BG on 01.13.16 at 8:35 pm

Stop investing. You’re obviously not cut out for it. Go visit the Jar Lady. — Garth

—————————————————————-

If you read fear or a rant against a balanced portfolio in my comment, you were mistaken.

I am scrupulously sticking to my 25-25-25-25 Canadian Couch Portfolio, regardless of “experts” forecasts (No offense but that includes yours).

Too much maple. — Garth

#152 Drill Baby Drill on 01.13.16 at 9:08 pm

So you think T2 will legalize Mexican tabacco do you ?

Check the front page news on MSN “Trudeau: I want to legalize weed, but they won’t let me” some little thing called trade deals you know the trade deals he spoke about in the election.

#153 Yitzhak Rabin on 01.13.16 at 9:09 pm

Regarding deficits, it ain’t just Canada:

“The US federal deficit totalled $14.4 billion in December, the Treasury Department reported Wednesday. That compares to a small surplus of $1.9 billion in December 2014.

For the first three months of this budget year, the deficit stood at $215.5 billion, an increase of 22 per cent over the same period a year ago.”

Something further to ponder:
The stock market and US Federal revenues have never been correlated more strongly than they are today.

#154 For those about to flop... on 01.13.16 at 9:09 pm

#126 BG on 01.13.16 at 8:35 pm
If the economy is going to suck that much, we might as well all start smoking weed.
So maybe Trudeau is actually a visionary.

The drop in stock markets today finished wiping out anything I had earn since starting investing a the end of 2013.

My portfolio will be all red tomorrow.
MF, we should start a club.

Stop investing. You’re obviously not cut out for it. Go visit the Jar Lady. — Garth

///////////////////////////////////

If it makes you feel better BG I will tell you a tale
I left Australia in 1999 , I thought for a year or two but have not been back since.
During that time a couple of meltdowns have happened and it took around 5 years for my evidently unbalanced portfolio to recover from the GFC but in the last 3 years it has made up for lost time with double digit returns.
I still pay into this particular fund once a month and will do until it expires in 2029.
How much will it be worth? Not much but at least I can look myself in the mirror and say I tried to be self sufficient .
Signed up in 1992 and will move it over here most likely 2029… If that’s not long term investing ,then I don’t know what is !
It won’t be a lavish retirement but I trust myself and my wife more than I trust anyone in Government.
I earn small potatoes ,but I’m the boss of me…

M41BC

#155 Wpg_Bubble on 01.13.16 at 9:12 pm

The average Winnipeg real estate price is down 6.82% year over year in December.

“In December alone 87% of all single family home sales sold below list price.”

http://www.winnipegrealestatenews.com/Resources/PressRelease?fileID=389

#156 chapter 9 on 01.13.16 at 9:12 pm

#76 April
Well,let’s get on with legalizing weed then…….

Not a problem, all Junior has to do is walk away from Canada’s obligation to the three international drug treaties,extradition treaties and totally revamp the controlled drug and substance act. Maybe he can have his picture taken putting the legal documents in the shredder!
By the way, Urugary is the only “country” to legalize the growing,sale,distribution and smoking of weed and they are not bordering the USA.

#157 ben on 01.13.16 at 9:13 pm

ZeroHedge post a load of over-the-top guff but it’s interesting they are picking up on this.

Excited yet boomers?

#158 Clearwater79 on 01.13.16 at 9:15 pm

Last!!!!

Not sure why so many peeps keep trying to be right about garths 10$ oil statement. He is referencing oilsands goop. WCS is heavy oil and not bitumen wich all the SAGD and miners make unless they have an upgrader.

Stop trying to be right when you dont know what u speak of.

Thanks to all about the cools spots in the kootenays to live last week. Lots of places I had never heard of. Anyone live or hace thoughts about golden, it got a great ski hill and is close to calgary?

M37 AB/BC

#159 TurnerNation on 01.13.16 at 9:16 pm

Oil bottom’s almost here…..you know.

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2016/01/13/this-energy-analyst-just-suspended-coverage-of-all-his-oil-stocks/

#160 Ronaldo on 01.13.16 at 9:17 pm

#72 Smartalox –

”A responsible infrastructure program invests in the types of projects that improve economic efficiency and competitiveness. Projects like roads that transport goods to markets, vital transportation links like bridges that promote trade, projects that reduce the costs of doing business, like reducing the cost of power generation.”

Exactly. If only we could have people like Bill and Wacky Bennett in charge things would be so much better. Especially in BC.

#161 Drill Baby Drill on 01.13.16 at 9:17 pm

T2 will not legalize pot. Get over it !!

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/trudeau-i-want-to-legalize-weed-but-they-wont-let-me/ar-CCvT8H?ocid=spartandhp

#162 vb on 01.13.16 at 9:18 pm

dollar and oil are oversold. I like having stuff that pays monthly when this type of stuff happens…rates down, reits up. not too many places to hide.

#163 BS on 01.13.16 at 9:27 pm

You can grow your own veggies to but I bet ya buy em at the store ? No?

Veggies sell for about $2 per pound. Pot sells for $2000 per pound. The return on growing your own pot is slightly better than veggies. You must be a T2 advisor.

#164 Smoking Man on 01.13.16 at 9:27 pm

#162 vb on 01.13.16 at 9:18 pm
dollar and oil are oversold. I like having stuff that pays monthly when this type of stuff happens…rates down, reits up. not too many places to hide.

Get a tattoo on your for head…..

NEGATIVE RATES

Its really that bad.

#165 Millmech on 01.13.16 at 9:29 pm

#106
I do grow my own vegetables,freeze and can them,I worked in food processing plants and avoid that stuff at all costs.

#166 not sold on trudeau on 01.13.16 at 9:31 pm

“poor bill”.

I say, poor Cdn-folk who think T2 is this messiah.

This article is laughable in fantasizing T2 as some Middle East Kissinger type.

https://nowtoronto.com/news/how-justin-trudeau-could-help-remake-middle-east-politics/

#167 Smoking Man on 01.13.16 at 9:32 pm

#159 TurnerNation on 01.13.16 at 9:16 pm
Oil bottom’s almost here…..you know.

http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2016/01/13/this-energy-analyst-just-suspended-coverage-of-all-his-oil-stocks/
….

Ha, Barrington Analyst. SM (energy)

UCC at work..

#168 WUL on 01.13.16 at 9:33 pm

I just Googled “polo ponies” for sale in Calgary on Kijiji. Not a single result. Maybe it is similar to 2007 – 2009 (the GFC) when insurance claims in the US for dead show jumping horses spiked incredibly.

#169 BS on 01.13.16 at 9:35 pm

Daisy Mae on 01.13.16 at 8:14 pm
“….but he’s started the process towards legalizing weed.”

***********************

Our downfall is beyond Trudeaus’ control. It will take a long time to get back on an even keel. Five years of hell? Legalized marijuana will generate much needed revenue.

Revenue from where? Pot consumption will be local only. It can’t be exported. It will just take revenue from alcohol or other parts of the economy. Just more stoned people diverting money to pot instead of going out for dinner or a drink. The government taxes those already. There will be nothing gained in the economy from pot legalization.

#170 Ronaldo on 01.13.16 at 9:39 pm

Especially the time we waste worrying about that which we cannot control. — Garth

Absolutely.

#171 BG on 01.13.16 at 9:43 pm

#154 For those about to flop… on 01.13.16 at 9:09 pm

If it makes you feel better BG I will tell you a tale
—————————————————————-

Thanks for the story.
I’m actually not too worried and keeping on investing every dollar I can on a balanced portfolio.
Trying to become the boss of me too, eventually.

(And yes Garth, I hear you “too much maple”, but my #1 rule is to keep it stupid simple and forecast free until I know better by myself)

M33QC

#172 Twila McEnemy on 01.13.16 at 9:43 pm

Garth, Are preferred still tasty to add or maybe hang on for a bit or add somewhere else (like gold maybe?) Thank-You Sir!

#173 BC Working Guy on 01.13.16 at 9:46 pm

From CBC:

“The Okanagan’s Lake Country set a record for construction in 2015, with $68 million in building projects — the busiest year in its 20-year history.

The figure represents a 36 per cent increase over the previous year, according to the district, which says it is the fastest growing community in British Columbia.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/lake-country-in-okanagan-sets-record-for-construction-1.3402375

#174 Big Dipper on 01.13.16 at 9:47 pm

“Of course, the collapse in oil, the crushing of the dollar, mounting inflation, investment losses, layoffs, job stress and disappointment weren’t caused by a government elected three months ago. But neither are they being addressed.”

——————————————

I believe the feds are planning a massive govt infrastructure spending program. Big deficits – you don’t like – but they certainly are planning to do something.

No doubt you got better ideas. I’ll start the list for you. Major government cut backs, much lower taxes for the very rich (rainmakers!), and doubling tax free savings accounts. Is there more?

Why don’t you write a blog called, “if I was prime minister and not that dopehead”, and let us in on your plans and the consequences.

#175 Retired Boomer WI on 01.13.16 at 9:48 pm

Well, even after the lousy day on Wall St. I actually had 5 holdings that went UP!

Yeah, still lost a bit on the overall day, but nearly as bloody as I thought. Three bond funds up, XOM and VNR up both oil related – go figure, eh?

Still crap start, but at least I got kissed, then got the black eye. on the day … She loves me!

We all get lathered up when our investments look grungy, but it is never forever. BG and MF relax, go do something constructive, or fun for 90 days then look again.

#176 Leo Trollstoy on 01.13.16 at 9:48 pm

looking at those articles about grocery prices it seems that deflation in canada is dead. not that it was much alive anyway. its funny that gold bugs are using fiat currency arguments to justify the worth of their worthless investments. lol. as i predicted the ndp and libs will preside over the economic collapse of alberta and canada. that’s all history will remember. love how die hards keep trying to drag the cpc into it but nobody cares. embrace the legacy. cpc sit on the sidelines and quietly watch the show. the smoking one has been spot on the cadusd. brilliant

#177 the Jaguar on 01.13.16 at 9:50 pm

Regarding this continuous boring issue about the legalization of pot. Let’s just get it out there:::
It’s for losers. Period. For those who want to escape their reality.
Have a glass of wine. A bourbon. A martini. Or just an iced cranberry cocktail. But people who smoke pot are suspect to me. Weak. Losers. Soft. I don’t really want to know them. Their statements are suspect as is their intellect. I don’t care who is offended by these statements. Don’t go away mad. Just go away.
A deal breaker in regards to any serious friendship. I would lose respect instantly.

#178 WUL on 01.13.16 at 9:50 pm

Re: Horse Murders and Insurance Fraud

Big scandal, although this Wikipedia entry references an earlier period (the ’70’s), the same thing took place during the GFC.

People losing wealth will do anything, no matter how cruel, to save their wallets.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Horse_murders

#179 Balmuto on 01.13.16 at 9:52 pm

#90 mark
“Hey if WTI goes to $10 what’s the price of WCS?”

If WTI goes to $10 there will be no WCS.

#180 Smoking Man on 01.13.16 at 9:53 pm

Offend, and express your little voice inside your head.

Cause if you don’t, you deserve that horny elephant seeking up behind you.

Some might like it..Most won’t.

#181 rawdiswar on 01.13.16 at 9:57 pm

A lot of people getting snarky on a blog comment section.

Passive aggressive are we?

These same people would pucker up tighter than a field mouse’s ear the moment someone raised their voice at them. Side effect of far too many years of schooling. Wouldn’t want to get “in trouble” would we?

The well worn Liberal line of “We won the election, get over it”, just goes to show what the end game is for these closet commies. Being in power. Which, by the way, is a classic symptom of psychopathy/sociopathy, a trait many share. Some more, some less, but all have it.

Besides, if you are only realizing things are bad now, odds are you only pay attention to MSM. Because you need to be told what to think, and how to think about it. If you wiped the pigeon poo out of your eyes, you would have realized the economies been in the shitter for some time now. The wages lost in the oil patch will not replaced by some $12 temp agency manufacturing jobs in Ontario.

But, smile, nod, cue nervous laughter. Just like you learned in school.

Better learn to swim.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=neGdoqsuiN8

#182 Investx on 01.13.16 at 9:58 pm

T2 to legalize pot? What a saviour!
Lol at Liberal priorities.

#183 Investx on 01.13.16 at 9:59 pm

Whatever happened to bond market pressures forcing rates well up by now?

Three banks raised mortgages last week. — Garth

#184 willworkforpickles on 01.13.16 at 10:02 pm

“this funny little nation of condo-dwelling beavers”
….sounds peaceful.

#185 Fine Wild Roasted Gonads on 01.13.16 at 10:02 pm

Way to go Owetario… $2 billion for smart meters…. that don’t work… should stick to building bridges… oh right that didn’t work either!

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/astonishing-hydro-one-pulling-plug-on-36000-rural-smart-meters-after-years-of-complaints

#186 Fine Wild Roasted Gonads on 01.13.16 at 10:09 pm

Apparently that fancy new pension plan you are getting in Owetario is going to let you jump rivers!!!

You are so screwed!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2OGQ866Dj8

#187 Fine Wild Roasted Gonads on 01.13.16 at 10:11 pm

#158 Clearwater79 on 01.13.16 at 9:15 pm

Last!!!!

Not sure why so many peeps keep trying to be right about garths 10$ oil statement. He is referencing oilsands goop. WCS is heavy oil and not bitumen wich all the SAGD and miners make unless they have an upgrader.

Stop trying to be right when you dont know what u speak of.

Thanks to all about the cools spots in the kootenays to live last week. Lots of places I had never heard of. Anyone live or hace thoughts about golden, it got a great ski hill and is close to calgary?

M37 AB/BC

Revy beats Golden…

#188 rawdiswar on 01.13.16 at 10:13 pm

Sold some of my CIB484 ETF when North Korea dropped whatever it was they dropped/blew up.

What is a better alternative for a US equity ETF? CIB484 is for the Wilshire 5000 index.

Oh, and Smokey’s been bang on about the USDCAD. Yet because he lacks polished grammar, most will scroll past his remarks to find something they already agree with.

Learn to see beyond the packaging folks…

I recommend taking a squeegee to your pineal gland.

#189 Panhead on 01.13.16 at 10:14 pm

#160 Ronaldo on 01.13.16 at 9:17 pm
Exactly. If only we could have people like Bill and Wacky Bennett in charge things would be so much better. Especially in BC.

I think Gracie is still around … with her famous finger.

#190 Smoking Man on 01.13.16 at 10:15 pm

Cant believe I’ve gotten so soft.

Trying to save liberals rather than eating them.

I guess losing my nephew mind fked me in a way.sort of my fault, clime the mountain kid, you got this.

These poor kids have no idea the dinner invite, well they’re the dinner.

I’m fortunate, I have no human friends, I drink, and smoke like a mad man.

No better place on earth if you ask me even when sobar.

#191 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.13.16 at 10:15 pm

Whew!
Sorry folks. Just got out of a 3 day elevator entrapment. A hazard of my “hobby” i guess.
It would have been a traumatic experience but Apocalipto2016 was there to talk me through it. An ofaculatory extravaganza that he eventually admitted he actually enjoyed….
What’d I miss?

#192 meslippery on 01.13.16 at 10:21 pm

#106You can grow your own veggies to but I bet ya buy em at the store ? No?

I do buy potatoes 10lbs @$3.00
$10.25 I think Ont. min. wage per potato now its time
to grow your own.

#193 robert on 01.13.16 at 10:25 pm

Just talked to a friend in Calgary today who is a Finance Director in a medium size Car Dealership. He told me he is fielding approximately 10 calls a week from lenders looking to repo vehicles. When they cannot find the owner they often call the Dealership to see if they have had contact with the owner. This is just one Dealership so you have to wonder how bad is it and is it about to get worse? There are huge losses attached to this and could we get a surprise on loan loss ratios this quarter? I believe TD Bank has the largest portfolio of car loans originated at the Dealership level.

#194 meslippery on 01.13.16 at 10:27 pm

See what happens on Wall St. and every where else
when you raise interest rates??
Dont do it again.

#195 HJD on 01.13.16 at 10:28 pm

Smoking Man: #107 HJD on 01.13.16 at 8:06 pm
………………………………………………..
Garth, What’s going on? Are you competing with Kevin O’Leary? Can’t you open your mouth without always making snide remarks about our new Liberal and NDP governments? What’s the point of the smart-ass comments you keep directing at Trudeau, Notley and Morneau? You recently lost an election or two. Get over it. The mess left behind by your Conservative friends will take time to straighten out. There are serious challenges ahead. It’s time to be positive and supportive.
……………………………………………………………….
I am a political agnostic, as my background attests. Being ‘positive and supportive’ of a government which is doing little so far in the teeth of a storm is to be an ideological sycophant. We’re better than that here at GreaterFool, no? — Garth
………………………………………………………..

Smoking Man: Dear HJD. I’m not politicaly agnostic. I hate liberals.
For good reason. They’re idiots and thieving back room crooks.

I bet your young, probably like that show my wife always puts on that pisses me off, the social. Makes you feel safe, just like when you were on school.

Well in the real world, you dont fell that safe, eat or be eaten is how it is.

Teacher never put that lesson on the black board I bet.
obey me, I will certify you as a worthy slave. And you can get that good job, that white picket fence.

You lose.

Liberals are clueless, they brain wash fools like you into thinking, yeah social justice.

T2 taken Lear jets to island’s, Economy is going to shit, what’s it been, 8 weeks? You ain’t seen nothing yet.

Read me as much as you can.

Think of my as the excorist that beats out stupidity and brings in pure logic.

My methods, a bit unconventional.
…………………………………………………………..

Dear Smoking Man, You’re wrong – the grey hair on my head proves I’m old. And like Garth I’m agnostic, which is why I smile when reading the silly dogma that fills so many of your unconventional comments.

Garth, Why jump on the Liberals so quickly? My suggestion is not that we become sycophants but, rather, propose and discuss potentially useful ideas in response to our serious economic situation.

“Of course, the collapse in oil, the crushing of the dollar, mounting inflation, investment losses, layoffs, job stress and disappointment weren’t caused by a government elected three months ago. But neither are they being addressed. The prime minister may not have moved to restore confidence in Canada, or even to speak on the issue, but he’s started the process towards legalizing weed.” Garth

Do you really think the Prime Minister is mainly focused on weed? That’s something Smoking Man is more likely to have said. HJD

#196 Mark on 01.13.16 at 10:28 pm

““Hey if WTI goes to $10 what’s the price of WCS?”

If WTI goes to $10 there will be no WCS.

Sort of true, sort of not. There are a number of refiners, on account of their configuration, that are captive to using WCS. Particularly in Alberta (nearly 100% WCS based feedstock), Saskatchewan, Minnesota, and a few other places. So these customers will not spend money to reconfigure their refineries for what is widely believed to be a short-term pricing situation.

However, the point, that production in the oilsands will likely drop dramatically over time, is well stated.

Pot sells for $2000 per pound.

Nearly all of that $2000/pound is basically a risk premium on account of the substance being illegal. If marihuana was legalized, its cost would likely drop to being similar to other vegetables with similar growing characteristics.

#197 waiting on the westcoast on 01.13.16 at 10:29 pm

#94 JimH on 01.13.16 at 7:53 pm
“#17 Mark on 01.13.16 at 6:14 pm
“… Although current inflation is minimal (food increases are more than offset by falling energy and transportation costs)…”
================================
Bullshit once more, Mark!”

Baby steps… Baby steps… At least he acknowledged that there was foods inflation… ;-)

#198 Ronaldo on 01.13.16 at 10:30 pm

#189 Panhead on 01.13.16 at 10:14 pm
#160 Ronaldo on 01.13.16 at 9:17 pm
Exactly. If only we could have people like Bill and Wacky Bennett in charge things would be so much better. Especially in BC.
—————————————————————
I think Gracie is still around … with her famous finger.
—————————————————————

Gracie was quite the gal wasn’t she?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grace_McCarthy

#199 TRT on 01.13.16 at 10:31 pm

Alberta Oil at around $16USD/barrel. There is never a price for it. Just a discount from WTI.

Not $8. That is Bloomberg index price that contains rocks, sands , various condensates, and oil. Got to sell ‘news’.

Let’s keep some sense of credibility here.

#200 Brian on 01.13.16 at 10:34 pm

My coworker sold his north east Richmond house in 10 hours. Over asking. Said dozens of bids from people with asian names came flooding in. We. Are. Doomed.
It’s a shame because the 604 used to be a nice place.

When it was white, you mean? — Garth

#201 Quicksilver on 01.13.16 at 10:34 pm

PM Zoolander had no clue that legalizing pot would violate several international treaties.
http://www.newsweek.com/justin-trudeau-legal-weed-marijuana-canada-415384
How do you say clueless en francais
Nick hair though

#202 Leo Trollstoy on 01.13.16 at 10:34 pm

now if only vancouver and toronto real estate prices would start dropping. could this be the year? #fingerscrossed

#203 Smoking Man on 01.13.16 at 10:37 pm

#195 HJD on 01.13.16 at 10:28 pm
Smoking Man: #107 HJD on 01.13.16 at 8:06 pm
………………………………………………..
Garth, What’s going on? Are you competing with Kevin O’Leary? Can’t you open your mouth without always making snide remarks about our new Liberal and NDP governments? What’s the point of the smart-ass comments you keep directing at Trudeau, Notley and Morneau? You recently lost an election or two. Get over it. The mess left behind by your Conservative friends will take time to straighten out. There are serious challenges ahead. It’s time to be positive and supportive.
……………………………………………………………….
I am a political agnostic, as my background attests. Being ‘positive and supportive’ of a government which is doing little so far in the teeth of a storm is to be an ideological sycophant. We’re better than that here at GreaterFool, no? — Garth
………………………………………………………..

Smoking Man: Dear HJD. I’m not politicaly agnostic. I hate liberals.
For good reason. They’re idiots and thieving back room crooks.

I bet your young, probably like that show my wife always puts on that pisses me off, the social. Makes you feel safe, just like when you were on school.

Well in the real world, you dont fell that safe, eat or be eaten is how it is.

Teacher never put that lesson on the black board I bet.
obey me, I will certify you as a worthy slave. And you can get that good job, that white picket fence.

You lose.

Liberals are clueless, they brain wash fools like you into thinking, yeah social justice.

T2 taken Lear jets to island’s, Economy is going to shit, what’s it been, 8 weeks? You ain’t seen nothing yet.

Read me as much as you can.

Think of my as the excorist that beats out stupidity and brings in pure logic.

My methods, a bit unconventional.
…………………………………………………………..

Dear Smoking Man, You’re wrong – the grey hair on my head proves I’m old. And like Garth I’m agnostic, which is why I smile when reading the silly dogma that fills so many of your unconventional comments.

Garth, Why jump on the Liberals so quickly? My suggestion is not that we become sycophants but, rather, propose and discuss potentially useful ideas in response to our serious economic situation.

“Of course, the collapse in oil, the crushing of the dollar, mounting inflation, investment losses, layoffs, job stress and disappointment weren’t caused by a government elected three months ago. But neither are they being addressed. The prime minister may not have moved to restore confidence in Canada, or even to speak on the issue, but he’s started the process towards legalizing weed.” Garth

Do you really think the Prime Minister is mainly focused on weed? That’s something Smoking Man is more likely to have said. HJD
…….

Dogs, we now know…

Hello David Suzuky

I knew it was only a matter of time before you came to play…

Is that the best you got.perhaps Skype meeting with Gore is needed. Remember $$$$

#204 Mark on 01.13.16 at 10:42 pm

“Baby steps… Baby steps… At least he acknowledged that there was foods inflation… ;-)”

I never denied it, although I certainly challenged the claim that food prices were going up in lock-step with the USD$/CAD$ paid. As USD$ prices are falling, and transportation costs, a significant component, are also falling. Retail margins are likely also falling as well.

And food, of course, is just a small portion of the overall consumption basket of Canadians. So the surge in food, combined with reductions in other areas of the overall CPI basket, is what gives you the below-BoC target CPI inflation of 1.4% YoY.

#205 vb on 01.13.16 at 10:44 pm

164 smoking man

ok? my point is holding stuff that pays divs lessens the drama of times like now… cheers

#206 Fine Wild Roasted Gonads on 01.13.16 at 10:44 pm

More Owetario tax dollars at work… retirement bridges!!

Maybe they should concentrate on the real bridges they can’t build

This is what is coming to all of canada… Wynne and T2… Lousy teachers running the show

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QGaeUxO6-E

#207 zeeman1 on 01.13.16 at 10:47 pm

Ah, HJD, like a typical lib astroturfer you’re ignoring the points made and attacking those who made them.

Pathetic.

“The whole point of astroturf is to try to convince you there’s widespread support for or against an agenda when there’s not.

The language of astroturfers and propagandists includes trademark inflammatory terms such as: anti, nutty, quack, crank, pseudo-science, debunking, conspiracy theory, deniers and junk science. Sometimes astroturfers claim to “debunk myths” that aren’t myths at all. They declare debates over that aren’t over. They claim that “everybody agrees” when everyone doesn’t agree. They aim to make you think you’re an outlier when you’re not.

Astroturfers and propagandists tend to attack and controversialize the news organizations, personalities and people surrounding an issue rather than sticking to the facts. They try to censor and silence topics and speakers rather than engage them. And most of all, they reserve all their expressed skepticism for those who expose wrongdoing rather than the wrongdoers. In other words, instead of questioning authority, they question those who question authority.”

#208 Frank on 01.13.16 at 10:49 pm

You invented a new term to try to scare renters into buying, “rent inflation”.

It’s not a new term. The price of anything can inflate. No one hear talks about rent prices going up too. Housing overall is getting more expensive, not just real estate.

Any evidence rents have gone up by more than inflation? Didn’t think so……

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-rental-market-survey-cmhc-1.3302004

Double inflation last year. 1.8x the year before, been this way for awhile.

At no point did I suggest buying a house right now. However under the right conditions it’s a good purchase. If you think that renting housing will allow you to always come out ahead you’re wrong. Stupidly wrong.

#209 Cheech and Chong on 01.13.16 at 10:56 pm

It appear the house of Saud is up in smoke. Perhaps they should spend a little less time smoking their bong and drinking tea.

http://www.thedailybell.com/news-analysis/36735/Saudi-Arabia-The-Meme-Expands/

The fall of the House of Saud may be provoked by a reduction in the price of oil. Incapable of reforming its life-style, the kingdom is borrowing hand over fist, to the point that according to financial analysts, it will probably collapse within two years. The partial sale of Aramco may temporarily postpone its demise, but this will only be possible at the cost of a loss of autonomy.

#210 MF on 01.13.16 at 10:59 pm

#126 BG on 01.13.16 at 8:35 pm

I’m in. Now we just need a name for the club. I’ll let you decide the name but here are some of my suggestions:

“Dumb and Dumber Investments”
“Beavis and Butthead Investments”
“Ren and Stimpy Investments”

Our specialty will be “inadvertent identification of bear market trends”. Write that down.

Okay I’m joking. Sorry to hear that the gains you achieved have been eroded. It’s a crappy feeling.

In the last year or so, when I have vented my frustration here, you, Garth, and other posters helped calm my nerves with words of wisdom. I’ll try to do the same.

-Garth and the more seasoned guys on here have seen all of this before. You can pick up the calm in their comments when they mention that fact. Flop had a nice message tonight as an example. This is not the first time, and will definitely not be the last time the market swoons. The market (and our money) will eventually recover and we are young so no need to worry as long as you don’t sell. After bear markets come bull markets.

-Just remember that equities don’t always go up. Sounds stupid but sometimes I need to remind myself that. It’s hard to not take it personally as losses mount. Chances are many others have the same bad luck though. I began to lament my bad luck a few weeks back but Retired boomer had a really nice message for me. In it he reminded me that we are ALL getting hit hard these days. Misery loves company.

-I try to look at this as a hard lesson in investing. It’s easy to make money in a bull market like we’ve had since 09′, but will be harder moving forward. Hopefully we will learn some valuable lessons early at this time that we can use to capitalize on when crappy markets arise in the future. I can see see it now. In five years time, we will have our own stories “of the bear market of 16′” for the brave newbie investors.

Hope this helps my friend,

MF

#211 Keith in Calgary on 01.13.16 at 11:08 pm

Current revenue from cigarette taxes in Canada was $7.4 BILLION in 2012-2013.

Weed will bring in probably the same amount, if not more. I know 3 times as many folks who smoke weed, than smoke cigarettes.

That is 1% of the national current debt per year in “found money”

In Ontario alone tobacco revenues are almost $2 billion. The direct health care costs are $1.8 billion annualy, with $4.4 billion in lost productivity and 500,000 days in hospitalization. This is a social disease. Why do we need more? — Garth

#212 Ronaldo on 01.13.16 at 11:09 pm

#202 Leo Trollstoy on 01.13.16 at 10:34 pm

”now if only vancouver and toronto real estate prices would start dropping. could this be the year? #fingerscrossed”

Sounds like you’ve been waiting to jump in for quite some time now. We’re likely a couple hundred thousand away from the top yet. Be patient.

#213 Smoking Man on 01.13.16 at 11:11 pm

DELETED

#214 Keith in Calgary on 01.13.16 at 11:18 pm

Forgot to add for all those weak arguments against legal weed, such as have bene posted here.

1 – It’s always been around, so you’re not making it available to anyone new.

2 – The economy has functioned with the existing non-taxable dollars being spent on weed, so the money will not be diverted from other parts of the economy into weed. The government will just get their slice.

3 – Health care costs will not go up because there is absolutely no solid medically acceptable and verified tested proof that it affects people like cigarettes. It just does not exist. Cigarettes are tobacco that is processed chemically. Weed grows in the ground and is merely dried and smoked.

4 – Crime goes down and the cost to society does as well because our jails are emptier.

Etc, etc…..every single thing that someone tries to tell you who is against it is “preaching” from an idealogical perspectified pulpit without any of their arguments anchored in facts. It’s all hyperbole, lies and wailing.

Thank you Justin. My vote finally counted for something that I can quantify.

#215 MF on 01.13.16 at 11:20 pm

#4 Love my Kia on 01.13.16 at 6:06 pm
#29 zee on 01.13.16 at 6:24 pm
#40 Jonathan on 01.13.16 at 6:28 pm
#53 MSM-Free Zone on 01.13.16 at 6:43 pm
#55 Harper’s Fault on 01.13.16 at 6:45 pm

Look at these people. Still blaming Harper after the election. How pathetic.

Hey no comment on the Saudi Arms deal from any of you eh????

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tories-press-liberal-government-to-justify-saudi-arms-deal/article28125150/

But man did we hear about the F35’s FOREVER. The silence on this issue from you people is deafening.

Read Garth’s comment above again: “The prime minister may not have moved to restore confidence in Canada, or even to speak on the issue, but he’s started the process towards legalizing weed. He knows who elected him.”

Exactly. Who voted for this guy? Please give me a real leader and get this fool and his posse of clowns bent on damaging Canada out.

MF

#216 Vundo on 01.13.16 at 11:22 pm

http://hellogiggles.com/birkin-bag-investment/

Damn, they never go down in value. To hell with gold and Vancouver RE, I’m buying Lego and Birkins.

#217 MF on 01.13.16 at 11:24 pm

#207 zeeman1 on 01.13.16 at 10:47 pm

Exactly.

Must have grown up playing this game:

http://web.eecs.umich.edu/~gameprof/gamewiki/index.php/Lemmings

MF

#218 DON on 01.13.16 at 11:27 pm

#177 the Jaguar on 01.13.16 at 9:50 pm

Regarding this continuous boring issue about the legalization of pot. Let’s just get it out there:::
It’s for losers. Period. For those who want to escape their reality.
Have a glass of wine. A bourbon. A martini. Or just an iced cranberry cocktail. But people who smoke pot are suspect to me. Weak. Losers. Soft. I don’t really want to know them. Their statements are suspect as is their intellect. I don’t care who is offended by these statements. Don’t go away mad. Just go away.
A deal breaker in regards to any serious friendship. I would lose respect instantly

********************
Funny post…as the same can be said about alcohol as a mechanism to escape reality. It appears you have your ideological blinders on. I always turn my back on ideological driven folks as that is a sign of a closed mind. But I do look over my shoulder to see what nutty is doing.

#219 DON on 01.13.16 at 11:27 pm

oh yah.

M44BC

#220 Me Holidays in Kanadastan on 01.13.16 at 11:29 pm

Testing, Testing, Achtung, Achtung. Out of zee Vay!! I am trying to driving Zee car!!!

Sorry folks… Just a test to see if I can access this Blog…

(pending, pending….)

#221 Another Albertan on 01.13.16 at 11:31 pm

Re: WCS vs Bitumen.

Western Canadian Select is a heavy oil blend. One of the major components is bitumen from McMurray.

The rub is that if you expect to pump bitumen, you need to dilute it with a lighter hydrocarbon – hence the term “dilbit” (diluted bitumen).

For practical purposes for readers, consider WCS is 70% heavy oils and 30% lighter diluents, priced as a discount to WTI at a specific terminal in east central Alberta. If you want the rough price for the heavy components, take the WCS price and multiply by 0.7. Then subtract CAD$3 to $4 for Enbridge’s pipeline toll.

WCS @ USD$16 = USD$11.2 for the heavy component.

A $4 Toll is around USD$2.75, yielding around USD$8.45 at the point of custody transfer at the oil sands facility.

There’s your bitumen math. Good enough for anyone who isn’t running an oil company or who is trading the stuff.

Everyone else’s mileage may vary.

#222 Fine Wild Roasted Gonads on 01.13.16 at 11:32 pm

#209 Smoking Man on 01.13.16 at 11:11 pm

DELETED


Something about large elephants and teachers most likley!.. and another bottle of JD clang

#223 Quebec is Great on 01.13.16 at 11:33 pm

Current exchange rates are VERY highly correlated to oil price. see link here (screenshot I took from a DailyFX video).
Might see small percentage fluctuation with BOC comments and rate changes, but by and large usd/cad rate is basically a bet on oil price in short to mid term. Poor economic conditions resulting from factors outside of oil price will probably decrease oil correlation in mid to long term though hard to justify that price is currently reflective of economic risk (ie housing crash, dropping GDP).My take is this: if you are currently trading usd/cad, don’t assume CAD is dropping because of anything other than the price of oil. Economic woes independent of oil prices are not (currently) priced in and usd/cad will turn on a dime if oil does the same.

#224 kommykim on 01.13.16 at 11:50 pm

RE:

#150 Smoking Man on 01.13.16 at 9:07 pm
Dear HJD. I’m not politicaly agnostic. I hate liberals.

I really hate how some Canadians have adopted the American version of the word Liberal. This rabid right wing, Fox News Republican, tea-party hijacking, of our political dialog is really irritating.

#225 Love my Kia on 01.13.16 at 11:52 pm

pathcontrolmonk on 01.13.16 at 6:23 pm

#4 Love My Kia – “Given the turmoil also happening in the US I can also see the reserve dropping rates again. Volatile days.”
#26 Poster
What “turmoil” do you speak of? Is it the Yall Qaeda in Oregon you speak of? Or have you been watching too much Alex Jones? Trying to convince yourself that the US is going down with the $0.50 Loonie and $20 oil, is not going to make it so. Canada dug its hole in the tar sands, now its yours to climb out of.
************************************
The DOW is losing quite a bit more than the TSX these days. The board numbers don’t show ‘how’, it just shows ‘what’.

#226 quicksilver on 01.13.16 at 11:57 pm

How can the BOC defend the Cdn dollar when news articles like this signal investors to flee to more business friendly environments.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/ruling+could+affect+more+than+northern+gateway/11649767/story.html?__lsa=4548-56d2

Nov 13 PM Zoolander had his transport minister place a moratorium on oil tanker traffic for Northern BC.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/crude-oil-tanker-traffic-moratorium-bc-north-coast-1.3318086

With BCs Clark gov’t, Notleys NDP and the Feds led by Zoolander and Enviroment Minister McKenna all vowing to reduce the Oilsands production through tougher environmental standards and pipeline regulation Big Oil is deciding that its easier to play elsewhere.

http://oilpro.com/post/21484/exclusive-husky-energy-to-shut-down-alberta-cold-oil-production-d

These Parasites are determined to kill the Host. It will take a generation to recover once they bankrupt the system. All part of the plan I’m sure…..

#227 Suede on 01.14.16 at 12:05 am

Spring to Remember,

No caution to the wind. YVR in store for historic house price increase if a 1.6M Burnaby tear down is any indication. Sold in 3 days, 200k over asking.

My oh my.

Hockey stick chart time. If rates go down, insanity will hit.

#228 Capt. Obvious on 01.14.16 at 12:15 am

What do you expect T2 to do? He could back track on promises, but in politics you get killed for that. If we wanted logical policy making, we wouldn’t be using this system. Fact is T2 can’t fix world commodity demand, so there isn’t much point in pretending there is a simple solution. Indeed, poor Bill, it’s out of his hands.

#229 Leo Trollstoy on 01.14.16 at 12:20 am

Baby steps… Baby steps… At least he acknowledged that there was foods inflation… ;-)

lol reality always punishes the dumb

#230 A box in the Sky on 01.14.16 at 12:28 am

#96 David on 01.13.16 at 7:55 pm

One consolation for falling stock prices is that it my lower my income just enough to allow me to avoid the over $200,000 supertax. I can’t sell because capital gains taxes would nuke me and I’d lose my mostly secure dividend income. So I’ll just sit tight and do nothing, as I did in 2008.
———————–

wtf are you talking about. Dividends have a tax credit they’re not income.

#231 edmontonboy on 01.14.16 at 12:48 am

I though that the Finance Ministers job with the bank of Canada was to keep inflation at 2%, and keep our currency from being devaluated. Isn’t he sworn in to dod this? It seems like since Steven Harper took over 8 years ago (and starting plunging us into debt even though he started office with an 3 billion dollar surplus) that the Finance Minister has become a puppet of sorts, eh?

#232 Chris in Nanaimo on 01.14.16 at 12:59 am

I hear banks are now offering downpayments on Cauliflower..

#233 You are wrong on 01.14.16 at 1:00 am

Garth,
What is the answer to canada’s economic problems? What policies should T2 announce?

From
You are wrong

#234 Rexx Rock on 01.14.16 at 1:00 am

DELETED

#235 waiting on the westcoast on 01.14.16 at 1:10 am

Mark says… “I never denied it (food inflation), although I certainly challenged the claim that food prices were going up in lock-step with the USD$/CAD$ paid.”

I don’t have time to search the myriad of posts (leave that to Trollstoy) where you state that it is merely that people are shopping at whole foods, etc and have been dismissive of inflation of foodstuffs.

I guess it was the grocery retailer mix… ;-)

#236 Ferdinand Magellen on 01.14.16 at 1:18 am

DELETED

#237 Jerry on 01.14.16 at 1:18 am

” the Bank of Canada will slice its rate come Wednesday…
..In anticipation… preferreds took another kick in the gut”

Could some kind soul (Garth? Bueller?) explain why this should be so? Speaking on behalf of the legions of simple-minded souls who come here to be enlightened, we would have thought that plunging government bond rates would send people flocking to the yields which preferreds offer.

#238 David on 01.14.16 at 1:58 am

That the Liberals can not finance middle class tax cuts should be no surprise. I absolutely refused to believe all that magical thinking coming out of the Liberal campaign room. The Liberals have a long history of pseudo progressive talk during election campaigns and once in office it is all we looked at the books and it’s impossible. Ditto with any improvements in Canada Pension. Cannabis legalisation won’t happen in most people’s natural lifetime. Why put someone like Blair in charge of this file?
If Trudeau wan’t such a Janus faced empty vessel he would publicly sack Poloz just like Diefenbaker publicly sacked Coyne.
Think I might grow some gourmet Sicilian Purple cauliflower this summer. Wonder how it tastes with Velveeta melt??

#239 jon29 on 01.14.16 at 2:29 am

New technologies and building infrastructure stimulate economic growth. Move past petrol…build for the future of alternative energy sources…remember, alternative today is mainstream tomorrow. Alberta should be full of wind turbines, as with the rest of the prairies. It’s easier done than you think. It just takes a shift in authority (I’m not talking about any government we have now) and the infrastructure…which we can shift to. We will be pushed into it, like it or not. 20 more years, boomers gone for good. Useless millennial hipsters and their “all participants are winners” attitude, down the drain with their craft beer…and then enter an educated generation who doesn’t have the toxic residue of the flabby post war generation lingering, pulling them back into a debt hungry society. Three generations out from now, we’ll be good, because we will be irrelevant. Just a crappy example of what not to be. Way to go society. The best boomer is still a boomer, piling on the pounds. The best gen x is weak, believing in the authority of their parents and the best millennial is reading a blog about Miley. Keep moving forward people. The last three generations were a waste. Our under educated, overworked great grand parents are turning in their graves, in the memory of breaking the land, for what. Fat cry babies. Stuffed full of formula. No one claps.

#240 Raging Bull on 01.14.16 at 3:54 am

“dollar and oil are oversold. I like having stuff that pays monthly when this type of stuff happens…rates down, reits up. not too many places to hide.”

There have been a few individual issues that continue to do well, relatively speaking. But Garth rages against stock picking so whats the use of telling people that safety is a click away.

The Wilders RSI Index is grossly oversold below 30 across the TSX, at 26.5, historic lows, which means that it is more prescient to look for buying opps as opposed to selling at this point. The RSI many continue to fail, as there are many instances where 50 or more breakdowns occurred between RSI 50 and 60 before marked stabilization. However, individual issues that break above 30 and hold should be watched and stalked with incremental buying, just sayin’.

This is much harder to do than ETF investing. It is something you have to do every day. But, with the TSX at -26.5 the index is becoming a compelling target and an ETF would cover the potential gains ahead at that point. What is that point?

No one knows when they’ll ring the dinner bell, that’s why watching every day becomes the intelligent investors game. There is no historical precedent for today’s action greed and fear come in equal measure.

#241 Heads in the Sand on 01.14.16 at 4:23 am

Thanks for all the good news Garth.

Fun to read the “straw grasping” by YVR/416 RE optimists (and the odd AB rent optimist) that cannot see the writing on the wall. Somehow they think their RE value = money in the bank. Your RE valuation will not put food on the table. Reverse mortgage and your net worth goes down.

Our economy is a mess and getting worse.

China is stemming capital outflows (Google it) and they have a habit of jailing billionaires that do not comply, in fact one in Dec. had a heart attack on the jail toilet whilst consulting with the government. The Chinese Warren Buffett disappeared off the face of the planet for about a week whilst doing the same.

Christy Clark is on crack if she thinks she can control the RE market with no fiscal or monetary levers to do so, let alone control external economic shocks. All she can do is hire more academics (which she eviscerated as the Higher Ed Minister) or build more highways and dare I say it, lower the BC tax rate? All very likely I am sure.

My oh my, it is going to be an ugly year…forget about 416, 420 here I come…well, 419.9 until T2 legalizes.

#242 Fed-up on 01.14.16 at 4:42 am

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/loonie-set-for-unprecedented-plunge-to-59-cents-u-s-top-forecaster-warns

TSX officially in a bear market and 43% of stocks in the S&P 500 trading below bear market value.

More to come?

#243 Jim Brown on 01.14.16 at 5:21 am

Another rate cut?

How is that going to help anything?

#244 Charles Ponzi on 01.14.16 at 5:24 am

‘The time to move towards the exit is while others still believe the spin from an industry acting out of self-interest and over-confidence.’ http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/time-to-make-an-orderly-exit-from-this-market/2016/01/13/

#245 Bobby on 01.14.16 at 5:47 am

When will markets defend the dollar instead of the gov. thats ruinung it? T2 has no experience we are in need of, we need major policy overhauls and tax codes need to be shortened and revamped.

#246 Editrix on 01.14.16 at 6:40 am

Okay, so if interest rates keep falling, do you really think the moisties will stop buying houses and condos in Van and T.O.? Don’t think so, not unless they lose their jobs first.

#247 Rapier Wit on 01.14.16 at 7:23 am

Well, seems like someone has it figured out. The RE piece – I mean – besides Garth. This is the most cogent argument that I’ve seen. And, it appears that we would be on top of that little pimple on the R of the RE vs adjusted inflation graph just now – opinions to the contrary notwithstanding.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/05/04/the-uncomfortable-reason-your-home-is-not-a-great.aspx

#248 Bottoms_Up on 01.14.16 at 7:31 am

#227 Suede on 01.14.16 at 12:05 am
————————————
Foreign investors coming into canada’s real estate market are also getting hurt by our falling dollar. Not sure it’s a wise move (yet) to convert their currency into canopoly money.

#249 maxx on 01.14.16 at 8:01 am

“Of course, the federal budget is already largely written. Nothing anyone says in any meeting will find its way into legislation. This is about optics.”

Precisely. So why waste our breath?
Best to take the approach of managing one’s own affairs by saving, saving, saving, investing wisely and avoiding tax as much as possible.
Emphasis on the highest quality of one’s life is also the point of existence and de rigueur.

Put very simply, the terminal illness of our entire economic system is that globally, we all seem to have forgotten the value of money. We don’t take it seriously any more. Why? Because it’s too damned CHEAP!

Fools borrow their brains out when money’s worth almost nothing – and that puts government at all levels squarely on the radar of stupidity. People take their cues from their leaders and we are in a mess that no amount of “infrastructure projects” and “stimulus” will ever fix. We could have sailed through this mess with almost no resultant debt had interest rates been the focus.
When money’s worth zip, fools will indebt themselves beyond the point of no return and eventually take the economy at large down with it.

Oil and many commodities are catastrophic and this will not change any time soon. Nor will manufacturing.

Government affects an almost “who knew” stunned pecker attitude whilst mired in debt and deficit. The icing on the cake is the lip-service of a phony request for help from the people this mess has damaged, in some cases (I know many) irretrievably.

So, ask away Mr. Morneau. But I certainly won’t be interested in wasting my breath at these foolish tête-à-têtes.

The value of money and its perception has got to be restored.

Period.

#250 TurnerNation on 01.14.16 at 8:23 am

Still Bay St. Is bleeding.

“GMP announced 73 job cuts on Wednesday, including 29 positions in Canada, 22 in Britain, 12 in Australia and 10 in its United States energy business. Ninety-seven positions have been eliminated since the end of the third quarter, bringing GMP’s global head count down to 291. GMP is not the only independent brokerage hitting hard times. In November, its larger competitor, Canaccord Genuity Group, axed 15 bankers in its U.S. operations. Earlier this week, that firm parted ways with a senior executive, and more job cuts are thought to be coming soon.

© 2016 Canjex Publishing Ltd.”

#251 broader mind on 01.14.16 at 8:26 am

Worry not. El Chapo to the rescue,after his extradition to the U.S. he is going to do consulting work for T2.

#252 Millennial Realist on 01.14.16 at 8:31 am

Kim Mitchell just had a heart attack – good luck, Kim!

Alan Rickman has just died at 69

David Bowie gone

Natalie Cole gone…………………….and so it continues…

Farewell and RIP to the tidal wave of baby boomers who have begun to pass away every week in increasing numbers, notably the names like these we have all heard of.

Generational change is upon us. The boomers, while still respected and appreciated, are fading into political irrelevance. Boomers will never dictate the outcome of any election again, anywhere.

As much as the haters here hate to hear it, Trudeau IS Canada now. It really IS 2016.

Boomer neo-conservatism, a fraudulent, degenerate, stupid and derivative set of half-baked ideas that were never true is quickly on the way out, and will not come back.

Higher levels of tax fairness, more investment in the infrastructure of our society, better treatment of all peoples, respect for our environment, and an end to the pathology of “growth” of the economy in a finite world, these things are all on the way out.

It’s time to join the change, boomers. You will be welcomed with open arms and hearts if you do.

Your influence, boomers?

It will adapt or die.

But if you insist on being stubborn neo-cons who refuse to understand, and all you do is die, we’re cool with that, too.

Every shot you take at Justin Trudeau, Rachel Notley et. al. is merely another nail in your own coffins.

Wake up.

That is just so darn cute. Reminds every Boomer of when they were moist. We saved the world, stopped a war, rebuked our parent’s conservativism, pushed for social justice, championed equality, resisted corporatism, voted for change, rocked out, sought peace and embraced weed. Then we grew up. Comforting to see not much has changed. — Garth

#253 davikk on 01.14.16 at 8:43 am

Canada Getting Hammered

http://investmentwatchblog.com/canada-getting-hammered/

#254 Kaganovich on 01.14.16 at 8:43 am

“I am a political agnostic, as my background attests. Being ‘positive and supportive’ of a government which is doing little so far in the teeth of a storm is to be an ideological sycophant. We’re better than that here at GreaterFool, no?” — Garth

Not that you were trumpeting the ‘hands off’ governing approach, but I am finding it humorous how so outspoken believers in ‘laissez faire’ governments are now finding interventionist religion with regard to Alberta. Too funny.
Kudatah!!

#255 Ashraf on 01.14.16 at 8:55 am

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/real-estate-council-bc-cancels-205200596.html

#256 Millennial Realist on 01.14.16 at 8:57 am

That is just so darn cute. Reminds every Boomer of when they were moist. We saved the world, stopped a war, rebuked our parent’s conservativism, pushed for social justice, championed equality, resisted corporatism, voted for change, rocked out, sought peace and embraced weed. Then we grew up. Comforting to see not much has changed. — Garth
—————————————————————–

Thank you again for this blog, Garth, and for posting contrary messages such as mine.

At the same time, I am afraid that for many of us, the “irony” meter just went into the red zone!!

Surely you must realize that your comment exemplifies exactly the kind of neo-con boomer denial that I was just speaking of….no?

I could not have given a better example if I tried.

Boomer conservatism is simply not something that evolved as you suggested, a process of “maturation” as so many right-wingers would like to believe. And I doubt you were ever even remotely left-of-centre, Garth. I’ve read your stuff….you’ve been one of those right of centre voices your whole life when it comes to most things, especially economic matters. Good for you, it’s a free country, but your blanket statement shows no awareness of the many moderate and left-leaning boomers who have spent productive lives working for change within our huge system, and have not given up or found handy rationalizations for switching back to the status quo.

We have lived through 35 years of bankrupt neo-con nonsense, from Reagan onwards. It has never worked. Trickle down is crap. A total fraud to help the few at the expense of the many.

Now, we have people like Trump (and apparently Kevin O’Leary, according to news today) who want to direct the anger people have at this systemic failure against even more marginalized poor groups like immigrants, rather than at the rich elites who caused it all and are snickering on the sidelines.

This is the last gasp of the boomer neo-con era.

Those who grasp this, and work for change will do well for their society and themselves.

The rest will be forgotten quickly.

Your arrogance (agree with my position, or be wrong) is on full display. You may belong to a group of progressives who despise sexism, racism or social and economic inequality, but you are blindly ageist. Generalizations like this will marginalize you, if it has not already transpired. — Garth

#257 NorthOf49 on 01.14.16 at 9:01 am

I figured I knew the answer but I was curious anyway. Sure enough…

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cheapest-crude-oil-on-the-planet-can-be-found-here-2016-01-14

#258 (2'D')'D2 Big Boy on 01.14.16 at 9:04 am

Garth –

I was writing to commend you on the last paragraph in your blog – ‘He knows who voted for him’ – until I saw your response to No. 251 Millennial Realist. Brilliant!

#259 45north on 01.14.16 at 9:22 am

free trade deal with China:

The proposition of a full-blown free trade deal with the Beijing regime wasn’t something Trudeau let us in on during the recent election campaign, for instance. But that would appear to be the end game now.

http://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/columnists/glavin-cut-the-propaganda-on-a-free-trade-deal-with-china

when the tariffs on clothing were abolished, the needle trade in Montreal was decimated. I mean it was destroyed

it’s a matter of trust or in the case of Justin Trudeau mistrust

#260 The American on 01.14.16 at 9:22 am

At #200: Brian, damn, dude. That was just blatantly hateful comment of yours. It cracks me up how Canadians call Americans racist, all the while ignoring or not recognizing their very own xenophobic behaviors. Very sad indeed.

#261 Dups on 01.14.16 at 9:33 am

We have a prime minister without balls.
He needs to man up and do what is best for the country and not to worry about being politically correct at all times.

#262 You're Nuts on 01.14.16 at 9:33 am

#251 Millennial Realist on 01.14.16 at 8:31 am

“But if you insist on being stubborn neo-cons who refuse to understand, and all you do is die, we’re cool with that, too.”

Best comment on this blog to date.

“That is just so darn cute. Reminds every Boomer of when they were moist. We saved the world, stopped a war, rebuked our parent’s conservativism, pushed for social justice, championed equality, resisted corporatism, voted for change, rocked out, sought peace and embraced weed. Then we grew up. Comforting to see not much has changed. — Garth”

The values of the boomer generation in youth and now in elder years were/are drastically different from those of the Silent Generation (1923-1944 as per Google). It’s not like the boomers grew up and re-adopted the values of that generation. Times change – millennials have a lot to learn, but boomer Neo-Conservatism is dying quicker than any of you will care to acknowledge. Sorry, not sorry!

#263 sallonist on 01.14.16 at 9:35 am

mr,wonderful to run for the leadership of the pc party

#229 Leo Trollstoy
dumb as dumb gets

#264 45north on 01.14.16 at 9:39 am

Smartalox: A responsible infrastructure program invests in the types of projects that improve economic efficiency and competitiveness. Projects like roads that transport goods to markets, vital transportation links like bridges

you mean like the Nipigon Bridge which just failed. I mean it didn’t totally fail – the deck just got pulled up a little. The deck is held up by steel cables but they contract as it gets cold ( -30℃ ). Who woulda thought?

#265 45north on 01.14.16 at 9:39 am

oh yeah and the link to the Nipigon Bridge

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/thunder-bay/nipigon-river-bridge-closed-transcanada-1.3397831

#266 Hope & Change (Canada) on 01.14.16 at 9:40 am

That is just so darn cute. Reminds every Boomer of when they were moist. We saved the world, stopped a war, rebuked our parent’s conservativism, pushed for social justice, championed equality, resisted corporatism, voted for change, rocked out, sought peace and embraced weed. Then we grew up. Comforting to see not much has changed. — Garth

Lol so true. Remember that millenials have no concept of what happened before Facebook, circa 2007.

They truly think that they are the first generation to have invented anything.

I’m barely 40 and one millennial asked me if I knew how to text. Another asked me if I’ve heard of AirBnB.

For the record I’ve been on the internet before the first browser. But that was way before Facebook so I guess it didn’t happen.

#267 Confused on 01.14.16 at 9:46 am

Every house site in York Region appears to start from the low million range. Many have the gall to say the low 1.9 million range. With 20% down that’s $7000 a month alone for mortgage payments. By my guess a couple would need a $180,000 pre-tax income to keep that house including taxes etc., assuming they walk to work and don’t eat. They can drink water out of the tap for hydration I guess. How can there be that many houses being built aimed at the 1-2% ers? These builders all got rich being smart. What’s going on pushing this much high-end inventory out there? Whose buying these houses?

#268 HCWTT on 01.14.16 at 9:49 am

#251 Millennial Realist on 01.14.16 at 8:31 am

Kim Mitchell just had a heart attack – good luck, Kim!

Alan Rickman has just died at 69

David Bowie gone

Natalie Cole gone…………………….and so it continues…

Farewell and RIP to the tidal wave of baby boomers who have begun to pass away every week in increasing numbers, notably the names like these we have all heard of.

Generational change is upon us. The boomers, while still respected and appreciated, are fading into political irrelevance. Boomers will never dictate the outcome of any election again, anywhere.

As much as the haters here hate to hear it, Trudeau IS Canada now. It really IS 2016.

Boomer neo-conservatism, a fraudulent, degenerate, stupid and derivative set of half-baked ideas that were never true is quickly on the way out, and will not come back.

Higher levels of tax fairness, more investment in the infrastructure of our society, better treatment of all peoples, respect for our environment, and an end to the pathology of “growth” of the economy in a finite world, these things are all on the way out.

It’s time to join the change, boomers. You will be welcomed with open arms and hearts if you do.

Your influence, boomers?

It will adapt or die.

But if you insist on being stubborn neo-cons who refuse to understand, and all you do is die, we’re cool with that, too.

Every shot you take at Justin Trudeau, Rachel Notley et. al. is merely another nail in your own coffins.

Wake up.

That is just so darn cute. Reminds every Boomer of when they were moist. We saved the world, stopped a war, rebuked our parent’s conservativism, pushed for social justice, championed equality, resisted corporatism, voted for change, rocked out, sought peace and embraced weed. Then we grew up. Comforting to see not much has changed. — Garth
____________________________________________

Really good to see what our Prime Ministers priorities were. He wanted to simple be able to do a couple of joints legally. Justin Trudeau is a pot head, ha now who would of believed that. So that is the millennial edge? Marijuana. Wow I am so glad our new Prime Minister that is in charge of running Canada is a pot head. I am so glad he is not in charge of a real country like the USA, could you imagine when the news comes in of an impending attack while hes blowing a couple of dubies with the wife up in the bedroom. “Come back later dudes I’m high right now”

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/08/22/justin-trudeau-marijuana-mp_n_3792208.html

#269 HCWTT on 01.14.16 at 9:57 am

#255 Millennial Realist on 01.14.16 at 8:57 am
Sorry your such a sore loser, boomers did make your life difficult, get out their and make something of yourself. We did it. You can do it too, adapt or sit in your puddle of tears.

#270 AB Boxster on 01.14.16 at 10:02 am

#257 You’re Nuts
boomer Neo-Conservatism is dying quicker than any of you will care to acknowledge
————————————————–
Yes, the new generation is so much more ‘progressive’
Your comments about Neo conservatism are so cute.

As Mr. T said, every boomer grew up in the 50’s, 60’s and 70’s.
You know that ultra-neoconservative time of peace, ‘make love not war’, free love, free sex, ‘turn in, drop in and drop out’.

Where women got the pill, controlled their bodies, fought for equal rights to work and pay.
The generation that fought battles against the ‘man’ for equal rights for minorities.
The generation that rejected the music of their parents, the war-making of their governments, the societal and cultural norms of the past.

Yes, the good old ultraconservative days of the 50’s and
60’s.

And the new generation is progressive how?
Cuz they snapchat, take selfies, sext, tweet and listen to Beyonce? Yes, very progressive. World changing.

But you are right, the millennials do have a lot to learn.

#271 Penny Henny on 01.14.16 at 10:11 am

Interesting article on Mr. Wonderful (No, not you Freedom First)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-magazine/kevin-oleary-hes-not-a-billionaire-he-just-plays-one-on-tv/article4564334/?page=all

#272 conan on 01.14.16 at 10:34 am

#260 Dups on 01.14.16 at 9:33 am

“We have a prime minister without balls.
He needs to man up and do what is best for the country and not to worry about being politically correct at all times.”

What might that be? What needs to be done?
I assume you have the cahonies to write about it in this blog.
Does not have to be elegantly written.

#273 Kothar on 01.14.16 at 10:38 am

What the he’ll is going on with world markets and currency? Everyday since the end of 2015 to now has been a down day. Our currency has fallen every single day. Who is responsible for this? Why is this happening …it needs to stop!

#274 Millennial Realist on 01.14.16 at 10:39 am

Appreciate the dialogue, Garth. You said:

“You may belong to a group of progressives who despise sexism, racism or social and economic inequality, but you are blindly ageist.”

I accept that one should try to resist any temptation to broadly categorize groups, and we all can do that, me too. You also, witness any number of comments made by or allowed by you about millennials, wives, non-Conservative politicians, etc… Your hands are far from clean in this regard, Garth. I don’t claim to be perfect either.

But blindly ageist, in my comment? I said:

“….your blanket statement shows no awareness of the many moderate and left-leaning boomers who have spent productive lives working for change within our huge system, and have not given up or found handy rationalizations for switching back to the status quo. ”

Clearly, I am not categorizing an entire age group as showing the problem in this statement. The opposite, in fact. My “blind” vision recognizes the diversity within the broader group I am addressing. Does yours?

There is diversity among boomers. Sadly, most of those who publicly claim to speak on behalf of boomers today come from a neo-con/hey the system has worked for me, what’s your problem(?) sort of viewpoint. Many speak here on this blog and elsewhere in the worlds of finance and politics.

Plus, we truly have a media and business elite who for decades have drowned out the voices of progressives, buying up the real estate of social discourse that used to be much more diverse and available to all.

This is all part of the horrible distortion that has been emblematic of the neo-con era. Notions about markets and capitalism have been twisted and manipulated for four decades, betraying the very essence of ideas attributed to Adam Smith and others.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwQEgOKEEXI

When I read the words of “freedom-loving libertarians” on this blog, I realize these people are the saddest kind of slaves.

But millennials are leaning much more in the other direction. The older groups, especially the boomers, have made this inevitable as those in power have reengineered the system to benefit themselves.

Boomer Poloz says ‘we’ should all be happy to work unpaid internships for years while boomers all get full pensions by 65.

Boomer Harper said we had to compete against hundreds of thousands of temporary foreign workers who never dare ask for wage increases, and created a real estate bubble that froze us out.

Boomer Garth derides Trudeau at every turn, yet in spite of his personal mistreatment by Stephen Harper, still seems to prefer him. Maybe because he’s a boomer, and he was not changing the neo-con message that has dominated for so long?

When the real estate melt fully takes hold, when our dollar is weakened and our unbalanced jobs picture tips over, people will not vote to return to the old ways that brought us here in the first place.

There’s too many of us who already have learned that that old system wasn’t working for us anyway.

So we’ll take our chances, thanks. Whatever that brings.
Think about it:

Is that not the most damning condemnation of the last four decades of wrongful, idiotic neo-con rule over our society? People who see so little future for themselves in a society that they will take a chance on much greater unknowns rather than carry on as usual.

The neo-cons, yes, most of the boomer voices out there, have brought this on by their own actions. Congratulations, I guess, you have made a difference. Just not the one you thought.

But good things can come out of situations like this. America, for one, in 1776. It’s far from a negative overall. And boomers, everyone, can be part of the future.

You’ve only seen some of the earliest results of that commitment. Much more is coming. Keep on
bloggin’ and you’ll read about it!

#275 Hope & Change (Canada) on 01.14.16 at 10:48 am

We have lived through 35 years of bankrupt neo-con nonsense, from Reagan onwards. It has never worked. Trickle down is crap. A total fraud to help the few at the expense of the many.

You live in an alternate world and even then, in the wrong Country. Most provinces in Canada are left leaning and they are bankrupt.

You ideal society is already unfolding in front of you. From runaway taxes, and fees, the impossibility to build and sustain industries and businesses because of foreign pressure groups and internal fighting, peso dollar, real estate speculation rampant because it’s the only opportunity for people to make money AND cauliflower inflation!

Enjoy! And don’t forget to blame it on Harper!

#276 pwn3d on 01.14.16 at 10:50 am

#224 kommykim on 01.13.16 at 11:50 pm
RE:
#150 Smoking Man on 01.13.16 at 9:07 pm
Dear HJD. I’m not politicaly agnostic. I hate liberals.
I really hate how some Canadians have adopted the American version of the word Liberal. This rabid right wing, Fox News Republican, tea-party hijacking, of our political dialog is really irritating.
———————-
Was that supposed to be ironic? Lol.

#277 He4rb on 01.14.16 at 10:52 am

@264 45north,

interesting case in point. Who is responsible for such a failure? The various levels of government, who may or may not have had the necessary engineering experts on staff, the engineers who designed it, or the contractors who built it?

Maybe there is a role for government in the Right wing universe after all.

#278 Leo Trollstoy on 01.14.16 at 10:55 am

US economy lookin sexy good baby!

http://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-q4-earnings-call-2016-1

#279 Broken record on 01.14.16 at 10:56 am

The TFSA limit was $10,000 for a year and you talk like T2 destroyed a sure thing. Should never have been $10,000 – $5500 x ~ 50 years is more than enough savings room for the average working Canadian.

#280 MF on 01.14.16 at 11:05 am

#261 You’re Nuts on 01.14.16 at 9:33 am

The Boomers were different than the silent generation because the silent generation wanted it that way. Remember the silent generation went through the depression and two world wars. They were determined to create a better future for their children.

Sorry but it’s the same thing with us millennials. We are just following exactly what our boomer parents want us to follow….. and that’s to be a copy of them. I don’t think you see that fact. You make it sound like we are changing something. We are not. As a generation, we are just easily duped (as evidenced by our recent election) into believing we are something different.

Facebook illustrates my point perfectly. Go on Facebook and see the person who is always having fun, on vacation etc. Dig a little deeper and realize they are boring and simple.

That’s our generation. A facade.

MF

#281 Leo Trollstoy on 01.14.16 at 11:09 am

That is just so darn cute. Reminds every Boomer of when they were moist. We saved the world, stopped a war, rebuked our parent’s conservativism, pushed for social justice, championed equality, resisted corporatism, voted for change, rocked out, sought peace and embraced weed. Then we grew up. Comforting to see not much has changed. — Garth

agree

“The children now love luxury. They have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love chatter in place of exercise.” – Socrates

over and over and over again. until we go extinct

#282 MF on 01.14.16 at 11:14 am

#271 conan on 01.14.16 at 10:34 am

Sure I’ll jump in.

Why not actually stay in the country and say something about.

“Our leader” hasn’t said a word. Just jetted off on “vacation” like Obummer down south does when something needs to be done/said.

That would be a good start.

MF

#283 Retired Boomer WI on 01.14.16 at 11:24 am

Millennial Realist, enjoyed your posts.

Naturally, not certain I agree 100% with each stance, but like the overall direction & theme. You millennial realist are witnessing what we, the boomers, have made of, and in the world during ‘our time.’ This includes a hell of a lot of people from 1945 to 1963 -18 years- no matter whether you measure it from 46-64. The oldest boomer about 70 retired, the youngest 52 just into their peak earnings years typically. Quite a broad view of aspirations as well as needs.

What our societal dreams were, say in the early 60’s and 70’s were far from the reality that we have built thus far to 2016. Sorry about that one, millennial. Trouble seems we don’t get a “redo” in having spent the time. After having spent ‘time’ it is gone, you just don’t get that dam stuff back you see. I hope you will understand.

Wish we had done better, but you’re the ones coming forward now -don’t blow it!

#284 Kenchie on 01.14.16 at 11:34 am

Interesting read…

http://www.scribd.com/doc/294654490/Nevsky-Newsletter-151231

#285 For those about to flop... on 01.14.16 at 11:38 am

#278 Broken record on 01.14.16 at 10:56 am
The TFSA limit was $10,000 for a year and you talk like T2 destroyed a sure thing. Should never have been $10,000 – $5500 x ~ 50 years is more than enough savings room for the average working Canadian.

//////////////////////////////////
You are entitled to your opinion and I’m not even gonna waste my time to lobby you I just want to point out one thing that really pisses me of about the TFSA .
The TFSA is in its infancy, well I think it’s turning 8 actually people are still thinking of it as 5500 per year they are not thinking decades down the line as a way to shelter money in retirement.
I have been able to keep up at this stage ,but if I bought some real estate or another major purchase ,I would not be able to contribute as much if at all.
I personally have a fund that expires in 2030 and I would have liked to have put this in my TFSA .
Who knows what’s gonna happen ,but it’s nice to have options.
The average stiff will do 50 years hard labour with many twists and turns ,why get all shitty if you aren’t able to contribute now there is along way to go.
If you think short term you shaft yourself in the long run.
With record debt and the Silver Tsunami about to wash over Canada ,let the people who want to fend for themselves do just that.
I don’t contribute to my RRSP but I don’t demand that be abolished, I am glad people are trying to look after themselves and enjoy their twilight years.
That’s my view on the matter ,you can keep yours.
Peace.

M41BC

#286 TurnerNation on 01.14.16 at 12:08 pm

Yes Smoking man and here’s the bounce in oil.
Nonsense news story like that one marks folly.
My FAS.US target was 21.50 and today it hit.

Good old Blythe Barrington with his blustery upper crust prognostications delivered in a clipped accent.

#287 MF on 01.14.16 at 12:13 pm

#278 Broken record on 01.14.16 at 10:56

The “average” heavily indebted 100% invested in real estate Canadian you mean?

They don’t deserve anything and should get what coming for them.

The TFSA was a savings/investing vehicle meant for the middle class and for people who are smart about saving/investing.

T2 reduced it because of his eat the rich BS propaganda election ploy and nothing more.

Read between the lines.

The pathetic part is this country was just stupid enough to believe it.

MF

#288 Blobby on 01.14.16 at 12:17 pm

Garth,

You claim to be party agnostic. But are moaning at the new government for not doing anything.

Can I ask, what you think they should be doing?

As far as I can see, the only thing they can do is to go back in time and stop the economy from being so reliant on oil? Because obviously they have little control over the global oil price?

But I’d love to hear what realistic things you think they should be currently doing?

#289 Big Dipper on 01.14.16 at 12:19 pm

“In Ontario alone tobacco revenues are almost $2 billion. The direct health care costs are $1.8 billion annualy, with $4.4 billion in lost productivity and 500,000 days in hospitalization. This is a social disease. Why do we need more? — Garth”

——————————

I don’t disagree with your point. But the aim of decriminalization is exactly as the word says; taking the criminal element out of the process.

Remember prohibition? Sure you do. A significant part of Americans alcohol users became criminals overnight. It was a disaster driven by ideology – nothing more. Americans are slow learners and the complete failure of the “war on drugs” fills up jails, but has achieved little else except vicious violence and enrichment of the criminal element.

Decriminalization, regulation and taxation are unlikely to increase or decrease use. But it will stop the stupid short sighted process of sending kids to jail with a criminal record for possession of a joint.

#290 Calgary Rip Off on 01.14.16 at 12:25 pm

“That is just so darn cute. Reminds every Boomer of when they were moist. We saved the world, stopped a war, rebuked our parent’s conservativism, pushed for social justice, championed equality, resisted corporatism, voted for change, rocked out, sought peace and embraced weed. Then we grew up. Comforting to see not much has changed.” — Garth

Each generation accomplishes many things they should be proud of. As far as “rocking out”, that was a 1980’s phenomenon. Tony Macalpine, Yngwie Malmsteen, Stryper, etc. This had nothing to do with the 1960’s.

There is a simple solution to the Syrian Europe problem: Europe must become Mormon. If Mormonism was around at the time of the crusades, Islam would not exist today, and there would be no problem. The reality that much of that religion is based on oral history means there is much room for interpretation. To those that follow Islam peacefully, more power to them. Let them believe as they want to. I believe that much of the problems in Germany and Sweden would not exist with a heavily Mormon population as Mormonism does not allow for getting out of line.

The central problem of this planet is the lack of love. There is just too much greed and a focus on perceived power rather than humility and a quiet focus on worthwhile goals.

#291 Nagraj on 01.14.16 at 12:29 pm

ZH has a whole lot of contributors, but Tyler is at his best when he assumes the persona of an overly sentimental and also prissy schoolmarm.
“It was just yesterday when we documented . . . ” (From the hilarious “Canadians Panic . . . “) “The plunging loonie can only serve to worsen the death of the Canadian Dream we said on Tuesday.”

Of course ZH loves exaggeration (to the point of misinformation) – but the humour is priceless. I forwarded that “Canadians Panic” piece to most (not all) of my friends.

What a delightful contrast to the stomach-churning pomposity of Canadian MSM, especially the CBC and, worse, the G&M.

One of the (few, to be sure) things that justifies our gracious host’s epistles is that GT is definitely not inclined towards pomposity. But Tyler’s funnier, especially when he goes after political leaders (of ALL stripes everywhere).

It’s interesting that ZH hasn’t challenged Canadian sovereignty. (Heaven forfend!)
No-one has yet compared the Loonie to, say, a hypothetical California franc, Texas peseta, Pennsylvania guilder, or Kansas cob.

I’m sure that Peter Mansbridge is a very nice man, but as news anchor this Mr. Canada baldy ain’t no Lorne Greene, rather the next best thing to the Queen of England reading the news –

The National: Good evening esteemed fellow Canadians. Our lead story tonight is the Canada Food Commission Canada just released White Paper on bugs as an excellent nutritional supplement, especially for our nation’s children. Search your window sill corners for frozen flies.

#292 bill on 01.14.16 at 12:47 pm

”You can grow your own veggies to but I bet ya buy em at the store ? No?”
-only under the lash of hunger…
the garden vegetable is usually far and away a superior product than the store bought vegetable.
I have no doubt what so ever that a capable gardener can produce a superior marijuana plant than what is currently offered in the ‘weed stores’. especially with the dutch seeds….

#293 The American on 01.14.16 at 12:52 pm

#37: broader mind, you can knock The U.S. all you like, but it is a country where any little Canadian boy living in Texas can dream of being President if he gets a million dollars from Goldman Sachs. #USA

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/14/us/politics/ted-cruz-wall-street-loan-senate-bid-2012.html?_r=0

#294 Nass on 01.14.16 at 12:52 pm

Dear Garth,
There is a question in my mind that I can not find any anwer for it!
When the oil was over $100 a barrel the gas price was $1.2 a liter, now the oil is less than one third ($30) but the gas is in $1 territory!
Even if we consider that loonie has lost its value about %30,still we should fill up the tanks with the gas in 50-60 cent territory, why the gas is so over priced in this country?!

#295 SWL1976 on 01.14.16 at 12:52 pm

#273 Millennial Realist – Good post. Nice to see you are awake and have and understanding of what is really going on.

I also don’t like to generalize, but feel like there are many many people here right now hoping that this whole finacial system we are part of holds together just long enough for them to ride off into the sunset. Reality tells me that the can cannot be kicked much further, That I feel is why many people do not want to accept reality.

My simple analogy is…

Most people right now are driving home in a car with a flat tire. No one wants to get out change the tire and deal with the problem.

Will they make it to their destination before the car becomes undrivable?

Will the car soon become undrivable and leave us stranded?

I know barring a tragedy it’s the latter for me, but most seem content to limp this sucker along with the flat tire

We are going to have to deal with this mess at some point. For it does not take a rocket appliance to understand that debt cannot increase exponentially indefinitely

There will be a reset

Are you prepared?

#296 conan on 01.14.16 at 12:54 pm

#283 Kenchie on 01.14.16 at 11:34 am
I agree with the interesting read.

Garth will not like what I am about to say but the days of the ETF may be numbered. Not only are they the TFW of the financial universe they are also making the markets dumb index heavy. Add in computer trading based on Spock’s fractal eyebrows and we have markets that swing uncontrollably. Plus, there is no money to pay for market research, government oversight, wages, brick and mortar, etc.

#297 pinstripe on 01.14.16 at 12:57 pm

at the coffee shop this morning the mood is don’t worry be happy.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/investors-markets-loonie-oil-prices-1.3402893

#298 TurnerNation on 01.14.16 at 1:13 pm

Millenial realist sounds like Carly in Cabbagetown.
Over schoolled and under educated. Capitalism will take care of them. I am thankful for that.

#299 palebird on 01.14.16 at 1:19 pm

#293 Gas is now 80 cents a litre in SK. Still too high but certainly not $1.00. If you are paying a dollar a litre today you are filling the tax coffers of whichever municipality you live in. The rest of it, well it is complicated and intentionally so. But you cannot expect a linear reaction between WTI price and pump price. Just the way it is.

#300 Van Hawk on 01.14.16 at 1:19 pm

@ 292 The American that was actually very funny and clever. Touché.

#301 Smartalox on 01.14.16 at 1:19 pm

@Robert #193:

Tell your friend to tell the repo men to check the parking lots at the airports for those cars that they want to repo.

Park ’em, lock the keys in the car and catch a flight home.

#302 Smartalox on 01.14.16 at 1:30 pm

@263 45 North:

Yeah, the Nipigon bridge is a bit of an embarrassment, but at least it failed ‘up’ instead of crashing down.

I guess that this is what happens when you outsource your design work to the tropics!

But I had the Gordie Howe bridge at Windsor in mind as an infrastructure project that can boost trade, at North America’s most heavily travelled border crossing.

Other suggestions might be improving port facilities on the East coast, now that the Panama Canal is going to increase its size and draft, and, of course, pipelines.

Another target for infrastructure investment could be things that avoid major losses, like due to environmental catastrophes: investing in creating fire-breaks around towns in regions that are prone to forest fires; floodways for areas on the prairie; flood controls in places like Calgary and Canmore, or Toronto, where hundreds of square miles of urban sprawl in the Don River watershed now regularly floods the lower Don valley – even during ‘normal’ summer storms.

#303 learningfromyou on 01.14.16 at 1:33 pm

Thank Garth for your post.

I was trying to figure out the money flow when we trade stocks in the market.

I found the following reference about it

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/03/020703.asp

Does it mean that changes in the market price of one stock does not affect directly the companies behind them? (at least directly I mean)

I’d appreciate if somebody explain that a bit here. I just want to learn.

Thanks in advance.

#304 Parsonage on 01.14.16 at 1:41 pm

#187 Fine Wild Roasted Gonads on 01.13.16 at 10:11 pm

#158 Clearwater79 on 01.13.16 at 9:15 pm Thanks to all about the cools spots in the kootenays to live last week. Lots of places I had never heard of. Anyone live or hace thoughts about golden, it got a great ski hill and is close to calgary?

M37 AB/BC

Revy beats Golden…

Depends on your Priorities:

http://www.goldenchamber.bc.ca/overview

#305 Mike in Edm on 01.14.16 at 1:45 pm

Can someone explain to me what the government thinks dropping the interest rate will do?

My thoughts (and correct me if i’m wrong b/c I really don’t think I fully understand) are:
-dollar will sink lower
-More exports and demand because all our stuff is cheaper
-companies will borrow more and ‘boost’ the economy b/c money is now cheaper
-People will borrow more and prop up / save a housing crash

Now what it’ll actually do:
-Crater our dollar
-Create massive inflation in any consumer goods (so basically everything we buy) and prevent people from spending b/c everything is so expensive
-Help oil companies a TINY bit b/c oil is sold in USD$
-Give a look of desperation and helplessness to the world, and will show that Canada is NOT a place anyone should be investing in right now, which will only hurt things more?

#306 broader mind on 01.14.16 at 1:55 pm

#292,The American,don’t get me wrong,I love the USA and am simply concerned with the Saudi control over oil prices.Remember, careful what you wish for,cheaper fuel.This is blowing up in our faces.

#307 winston on 01.14.16 at 1:58 pm

Funny how no one mentions Dutch Disease anymore. Dion and Cullen sure were ridiculed for mentioning it, but now the hot money is leaving Canada, as predicted in the diagnosis.

#308 Bram on 01.14.16 at 2:09 pm

#293 Nass on 01.14.16 at 12:52 pm
we should fill up the tanks with the gas in 50-60 cent territory, why the gas is so over priced in this country?!

The main reason is that at big chunk of what you pay at the pump is ‘taxes’ in many shapes and forms!
E.g. in BC, we have:

Federal excise tax
GST
Carbon tax
Transit tax
Provincial fuel tax

My guess is that some of those are probably not a rate, but a fixed charge per litre.
Thus, these would not change if the producer’s price goes down.

Also, the refined product is not the same as the crude.

Bram

#309 Nemesis on 01.14.16 at 2:27 pm

“Mormonism does not allow for getting out of line.” – CRO

https://youtu.be/OKkLV1zE8M0

#310 conan on 01.14.16 at 2:33 pm

#304 Mike in Edm on 01.14.16 at 1:45 pm

I think the number one reason why interest rates will be reduced next Wednesday is this:
There is a perfect storm of economic uncertainty blowing around the World and the last thing that Canada needs is a real estate collapse.

Let it happen 3 months from now but not now…..

“For Gods sake not now”

So money in the bank that the cut is coming.

A cut may come, but it has virtually nothing to do with that. — Garth

#311 Daisy Mae on 01.14.16 at 2:40 pm

#86: “RBS says “Sell Everything!” after carefully securing short positions in everything.”

Made me smile…

************************

Yes. Me, too! People are so naïve.

#312 michelle on 01.14.16 at 2:42 pm

I’m just wondering what everyone’s views are on the media exploding this week with headlines in every major paper saying that the Chinese will invest more in Van RE as they don’t trust their plummeting stock market. Is this just more BS real estate hype or is there any truth to it? Also, what are the REAL numbers for foreign investment? All our friends are 100% convinced that high numbers of foreign investment will keep Vancouver high forever. I argue differently, but having some hard data available would help as no one believes me.

We sold our house a few years back to invest our $$ instead. We now rent. Everyone I speak to is invested in RE and no one believes there will be a drop…..ever! I must say it has been a little painful watching our house go up even more after selling. Rent is very high due to the lack of homes available and high ownership.

I’m trying to keep my faith that things will change…..any words of encouragement? : )

Get new friends. — Garth

#313 rainclouds on 01.14.16 at 2:46 pm

#156 Chapter 9
“By the way, Urugary is the only “country” to legalize the growing, sale, distribution and smoking of weed and they are not bordering the USA.”

Technically correct. however, change “country” with “State” and poof Alaska, Washington, DC, Oregon, Colorado Are ALL currently realizing impressive (larger than expected) tax windfalls with LEGAL Marijuana. Upcoming Referendums in California, Massachusetts, Maine and several other jurisdictions. Given the geographical locations INSIDE the US. It would appear the “international agreements” are going up
in smoke.

Try thinking before you type…….

#177 The Jag
“A deal breaker in regards to any serious friendship. I would lose respect instantly.”

I’m crushed……

#314 Daisy Mae on 01.14.16 at 2:51 pm

#113: Our downfall is beyond Trudeaus’ control. It will take a long time to get back on an even keel. Five years of hell? Legalized marijuana will generate much needed revenue. It’s a medicinal alternative, anyway — used freely.

You miss the point. Is this the current priority? – Garth

*********************

No. But it’s one he can implement in short order. The other priorities are going to take alot of time…and there are no quick political fixes.

#315 Rick on 01.14.16 at 2:53 pm

Broken Record, “The TFSA limit was $10,000 for a year and you talk like T2 destroyed a sure thing. Should never have been $10,000 – $5500 x ~ 50 years is more than enough savings room for the average working Canadian.”
____________________________________
Who is the government to tell me, or anyone, how much is enough savings?

#316 World Traveller on 01.14.16 at 3:02 pm

I wish they would do this in Canada

http://gizmodo.com/the-us-will-investigate-who-is-actually-buying-up-all-i-1752730615

#317 Jinxi on 01.14.16 at 3:04 pm

So there is a bit of a relief rally now and the bleeding from balanced and diversified portfolios has stopped for the moment.

Please do not jinx things with some commentary about the need to divest oneself from fears, and that the market is poised for a recovery. Whenever those comments are made, we seemingly get the next leg down in the market.

Its like when preferred shares popped 10% when the feds made their decision. That announcement was made to help rationalize holding preferred shares despite their price declines. The next thing you know, they are bleeding, hit all time lows from previous years, off 25% or so, and are geared for more downward pressure if the BOC does cut rates.

So please just stick to allaying fear for now.

#318 economictsunami on 01.14.16 at 3:06 pm

When rigorous fact checking of the meme that the US jobs recovery remains full steam ahead and full employment is nigh (even though well paying oil related jobs are being relentlessly eviscerated almost monthly) then you stumble upon this from ECRI:

Fresh Data: Cheap Labor

https://www.businesscycle.com/ecri-news-events/news-details/economic-cycle-research-ecri-updated-cheap-trick

Any wonder why wage growth remains weak to non existent?…

#319 Sean on 01.14.16 at 3:11 pm

http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/equitable-launches-digital-bank-with-3-interest-savings-account-to-lure-deposits-from-canadian-rivals

Wonder how they can offer 3%, doubt that can last very long with money so cheap. This would probably beat what most people invested last year (most, not you and your diversified portfolio Garth).

#320 GS in T.O on 01.14.16 at 3:13 pm

Yes, the new generation will save the world.
Wasn’t it Winston Churchill that said, “If at 20 you’re not a socialist, I question your heart. If at 30 you’re still a socialist, I question your brain

#321 For those about to flop... on 01.14.16 at 3:16 pm

#313 Daisy Mae on 01.14.16 at 2:51 pm
#113: Our downfall is beyond Trudeaus’ control. It will take a long time to get back on an even keel. Five years of hell? Legalized marijuana will generate much needed revenue. It’s a medicinal alternative, anyway — used freely.

You miss the point. Is this the current priority? – Garth

*********************

No. But it’s one he can implement in short order. The other priorities are going to take alot of time…and there are no quick political fixes.

//////////////////////////////
Daisy there are no short term fixes but I want you to try this.
Move the left corner of your mouth in and upwards position.
Repeat with the right side …this where I come from is called smiling.Feels good doesn’t it?
You should try to do it at the very least 2 or 3 times a day.Its not good to be in a continual state of seriousness.
Even the Metrosexual Messiah does it more than he should ..or as he is known when he travels down south ,El Goofo..
Enjoy!

M41BC

#322 Smoking Man on 01.14.16 at 3:17 pm

#273 Millennial Realist on 01.14.16 at 10:39 am

Thats was a long winded piece of nothing.

Know this, in four years when the cultural marxists are done destroying canada the back lash will be huge.

Troys will sweep the nation, and you wont see another liberal government for the next 50 years.

Switch to the Conservative party and run for office, you’ll have job for life starting in four years.

I would do it, but its a massive pay cut, I don’t love you bastards enough to take the hit like that.

#323 farm wife on 01.14.16 at 3:24 pm

calgary rip off #289

With all due respect,me thinks medieval history may not be you strong point when it comes to religion. It is my understanding that religion was secondary to gained riches for all involved and the control of major trade routes. The knights templar are a pretty good example of religion having little control. A lot of second sons who stood to inherit nothing made their fortune during the crusades.

What ever religion, what ever time period, I am sure the gods have always been to busy trying to keep a handle on the lunatic asylum of the universe that we call earth.

#324 Lea, south of the border on 01.14.16 at 3:32 pm

Cauliflower shortage in the U.S. too. Small heads @ US$1.99/lb. at our local Safeway.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/01/14/sorry-vegetarians-there-s-a-cauliflower-shortage.html

#325 jess on 01.14.16 at 3:32 pm

“death bond” scandal
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/08/nyregion/the-hidden-money-buying-up-new-york-real-estate.html

On 26 May 2015, it was announced that the founder and CEO, Stewart Ford, had been fined a record £75 million by the Financial Conduct Authority.[1]

The never-ending story: Is the Keydata scandal coming to an end?
http://www.professionaladviser.com/…/the-never-ending-story-is-the-keydata-s...
Jun 2, 2015 – The Keydata scandal returned to the headlines last week when the … senior Keydata managers, Stewart Ford, Mark Owen and Peter Johnson, …
Stewart Ford launches £650m damages claim against FSA …
http://www.professionaladviser.com/…/keydata-founder-stewart-ford-launches-...
May 26, 2015 – Stewart Ford is seeking £650m in damages from the financial regulator and administrator … “From day one I’ve said this was a scandal.

==========================
FCA finds 60% of wealth managers’ portfolios close to unsuitable

http://www.professionaladviser.com/professional-adviser/news/2438463/fca-finds-60-of-wealth-managers-portfolios-close-to-unsuitable
http://fca.org.uk/static/documents/tr15-12.pdf
http://www.mills-reeve.com/is-harlequin-going-to-be-the-next-keydata-scandal-07-20-2015/
http://www.professionaladviser.com/tag/harlequin

#326 mark on 01.14.16 at 3:32 pm

BMO Preferred share laddered rate reset index etf ZPR has lost 35% in last 52 weeks and has UNDERPERFORMED the tsx by 22% as of friday.
This is getting scary!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/stocks/summary/?q=ZPR-T

Blame Poloz. Meanwhile you are getting a 6.3% yield. Why does everyone buy prefs for the wrong reasons? — Garth

#327 Kevan Oleery on 01.14.16 at 3:48 pm

Who wants to help my kudetah in Ottawa?

http://globalnews.ca/news/2450876/alberta-kudatah-plot-sparks-mockery-on-social-media/

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/national/michael+tandt+fire+breathing+kevin+leary+good+conservative/11652172/story.html

#328 Julie K. on 01.14.16 at 4:26 pm

‘It’d be better for us if you don’t understand.’

Locked In The Trunk Of A Car ~

The Tragically Hip

#329 SWL1976 on 01.14.16 at 4:39 pm

#321 Smoking Man

#273 Millennial Realist

Thats was a long winded piece of nothing.

Know this, in four years when the cultural marxists are done destroying canada the back lash will be huge.

Troys will sweep the nation, and you wont see another liberal government for the next 50 years.

Switch to the Conservative party and run for office, you’ll have job for life starting in four years.

I would do it, but its a massive pay cut, I don’t love you bastards enough to take the hit like that.

———————————–

I’m surprised you of all people don’t understand that this goes well beyond any party simply in power. At this point it doesn’t much matter who the front man is. The system is so corrupt and rigged, that thinking your simple vote counts is so last century.

A cultural and spiritual evoloution is the only way I see of righting this ship…

And without a serious shift in consciousness…

Things are looking bleak

#330 Penny Henny on 01.14.16 at 4:43 pm

#325 mark on 01.14.16 at 3:32 pm
BMO Preferred share laddered rate reset index etf ZPR has lost 35% in last 52 weeks and has UNDERPERFORMED the tsx by 22% as of friday.
This is getting scary!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/stocks/summary/?q=ZPR-T

Blame Poloz. Meanwhile you are getting a 6.3% yield. Why does everyone buy prefs for the wrong reasons? — Garth
///////////////////////////////
You mean you are getting a 6.3% yield if you bought at today’s prices?

#331 Fine Wild Roasted Gonads on 01.14.16 at 4:44 pm

Well there go.. T2 has got it all solved.. he’s a C++ coder! except that he quit…

““Not only am I a former teacher but I also, when I was studying engineering, got half-way decent as a coder in C++,” he said later.”

#332 Chris in Nanaimo on 01.14.16 at 4:53 pm

#325 Mark : BMO Preferred share laddered rate reset index etf ZPR has lost 35% in last 52 weeks and has UNDERPERFORMED the tsx by 22% as of friday.
This is getting scary!

———————

Yep my ZPR holdings are down 27% since I brought them barely 9 months ago. I’m in this for the long term-ish (15 years)…..but still….at 27% drop means something like a 35% rise just to get back to where I started. That’s doable in 15 years right????

#333 MF on 01.14.16 at 5:05 pm

#331 Chris in Nanaimo on 01.14.16 at 4:53 pm

Me too. Then I bought more on December 15th because I thought rates would rise lol. Did I not learn. Poloz does not care about us. Only debt laden idiots, which is 90% of our population apparently.

I wish I could sell but I’m locked in with a big loss.

MF

#334 Garth's Favourite Amazon on 01.14.16 at 6:36 pm

To be fair to T2, I don’t believe he has ever promised ‘sunny days ahead’. Rather on election night he referenced Laurier’s mantra of ‘sunny ways’, referring to the success of his positive campaign :-)

#335 Tri-Guy on 01.14.16 at 8:15 pm

Currently own a SFH in the 604 and trying to convince the wife we need to sell and convert the equity to cash before it’s too late. I assume the consensus here agree with this idea? Home purchased in 2008 for $570k and currently valued at $900k with $415k remaining on the mortgage.