Hang in there

LIQUOR STORE KITS modified

In 2015 most investors were spanked. No wonder.

Greeks in revolt. Chinese diddling. Oil price collapse. Fed rate hike roulette. Loonie plunge. Meltdown on Bay Street. Donald Trump. More Adele. Almost too much to bear. As mentioned often here over the past year, people with too much maple in their accounts paid a high price for that home-country bias. Sadly that involves a majority of Canadian investors.

So the TSX finishes the year down more than 11%. Oil gave up 40% of its value since the summer. The rig count is the lowest in a quarter century and the globe is swimming in crude. Over 80,000 people lost their jobs in Alberta alone, in the patch or construction. The office vacancy rate’s 18% in Calgary. So we could be back into recession in the first quarter of 2016.

If it weren’t for real estate values – at least outside of oil country – most people would be feeling considerably poorer than at the close of 2014. For that, you can thank the Bank of Canada. It shocked markets in mid-January with a rate cut, then surprised everybody again in July with a second. The first cut ignited the spring real estate market, and thenext kept it alive with artificially low mortgage rates.

You know the result. Prices in our bubbliest markets have increased by six times the inflation rate, and far in excess of average wage gains. As a result, household debt hit a record high in 2015, and finishes the year accelerating. This happened despite the oil collapse, a 16-year tumble for commodity prices, dismal job creation in Canada, blood on Bay and the new T2 crew’s higher down payment rules (albeit not here until February).

Now the Fed has raised its key rate for the first time in a decade. The cheap money party’s ending. Our economy’s limping and there’s no hope on the horizon for crude. Mortgage rates have probably hit bottom, as evidenced by the bounce higher since the Fed moved. No, the Bank of Canada isn’t about to jack up the cost of money while the economy is whacked, but that will eventually happen. Nor will they lower it much since the dollar will flinch bad.

In short, what conditions exist to support more housing gains in 2016? Beats me. What conditions exist to make real estate leverage risky? Lots. Remember – unlike governments, actual people have to pay their debts back. And debt taken over the past few years will certainly be renewing at a higher cost from 2016 onwards. If it’s repaid on assets which are losing value at the same time (likely) then that sucks hard.

So your first resolution should be to deal with debt. Lock it in. Make it tax-deductible. Or sell assets to reduce borrowings. With property values still stupid in the GTA or YVR, it’s exactly the time to consider the strategy. If you balk, believing you’ll never be able to buy in again, especially some soulless condo in an urban forest, reread the previous paragraphs. You’re dreaming.

As for investing, however, 2016 is looking decent. Global growth is finishing the year at about 3%, the US is lurching ahead with its jobs juggernaut and recovery, Europe is benefiting from trillion-euro stimulus orgy, Japan’s market is hot, China seems to be stabilizing, the Greeks have mercifully shut up and most people think commodity prices will improve a little. Even if they don’t, few expect oil to lose a fraction of what it did last year.

This is an environment in which a balanced and globally-diversified portfolio should do fine, even if it’s another stinker for those with a beaver-and-moose fetish. A minority of your assets should be in maple again this year, with two-thirds (at least) in US and international securities, and 20% of holdings in US$-denominated stuff. Of course, you should also cram as much as possible into a tax-free box.

Starting Friday, that’ll be harder. The annual TFSA contribution limit was ripped from ten grand a year to just $5,500 in a crass political move by the new regime in Ottawa. Making it more taxing for people to save, invest and prepare for their retirement is bizarre, but this is now a country on the move to the left.

Or is it?

A Nanos survey just published finds that 48% of Canadian support or somewhat support cutting the TFSA limit while almost an equal number – 46% – oppose or somewhat oppose it. That’s interesting, given the fact only 7% of us have actually maxed out the tax-free account or make the full annual contribution. That suggests people are finally realizing while they may not utilize the gift now, it will be there for them in the future. To attack the TFSA just because it’s under-utilized is myopic to say the least. Combined with all the tax incentives to buy a home, it sends out the message that Ottawa would rather have you indebted and dependent than solvent and free.

Which is, after all, what modern liberalism’s about.

Well, you have $46,500 in TFSA contribution room as of tomorrow. Use it. And not for a down payment.

HNY.

Thanks to blog dog Scott for the Kits liquor store pic shot today.

167 comments ↓

#1 Sue Poirier on 12.31.15 at 5:15 pm

Thank you for another year of info and help Garth and blog dogs. Happy 2016 all!

#2 MoneyDriven on 12.31.15 at 5:18 pm

Happy New Year Garth. Please keep up writing next year.

“A Nanos survey just published finds that 48% of Canadian support or somewhat support cutting the TFSA limit while almost an equal number – 46% – oppose or somewhat oppose it.”

Would have been an interesting follow up question “What is TFSA or how it benefits them?” People always want tax saving without knowing what it means. I be really surprise if half of that 46% could explain how TFSA works.

Happy 2016 everyone.

#3 Larry on 12.31.15 at 5:18 pm

A Happy New Year to you Sir !

#4 Rick on 12.31.15 at 5:20 pm

FIRST! OHH YEAH!! HAPPPY NEW YEARALL!

#5 Extron on 12.31.15 at 5:20 pm

HNY ? Is it code for horny, hello from New York or a global etf I should buy with my TFSA contribution monday am?

M59ON

#6 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.31.15 at 5:20 pm

Happy New Year Garth

#7 Rick on 12.31.15 at 5:22 pm

Went out this afternoon to pick up a few things and run some errands. Sure are a lot of people in the liquor store; considering they all claim to be broke:)

#8 sm_yyc on 12.31.15 at 5:24 pm

Happy New Year to you too Garth! Looking forward to reading more from you in 2016!

#9 For those about to flop... on 12.31.15 at 5:25 pm

Well, you have $46,500 in TFSA contribution room as of tomorrow. Use it. And not for a down payment-Garth.

//////////////////////////////////////

I am going to use my 46k as a down payment alright…on retirement !!

#10 Lala on 12.31.15 at 5:26 pm

HNY = Horny New Year

#11 Lala on 12.31.15 at 5:27 pm

In the end all this money thing is who is getting more women.

#12 For those about to flop... on 12.31.15 at 5:28 pm

#5 Extron on 12.31.15 at 5:20 pm
HNY ? Is it code for horny, hello from New York or a global etf I should buy with my TFSA contribution monday am?

M59ON

///////////////////////////////
Dammit ,you reminded me I forgot my code !
Thanks HNY.
It slooooowly catching on !

M41BC

#13 Tom from Missisauga on 12.31.15 at 5:30 pm

Both Baker Hughes and CAODC rig counts for Canada were terrible. A rate cut will only create inflation. Double dip recession is very likely here.

#14 Brydle604 on 12.31.15 at 5:31 pm

Happy New Year Garth, Dorothy, Bandit and the Dawgs!

#15 Keeping the Faith on 12.31.15 at 5:32 pm

Thank you Garth and Happy New Year to you and yours!

I completed our annual net worth analysis today and we’re up 100% in 3 years due to following your guidance and monthly investing, following your plan of diversified portfolio and renting well below our means.

Thank you, Thank you, Thank you and a toast to a great 2015 and a better 2016 ahead!

#16 Frank W on 12.31.15 at 5:38 pm

Happy New Year Garth, Dorothy, Bandit, and blog dawgs.

Now Comes The Great Unwind—-How Evaporating Commodity Wealth Will Slam The Casino

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/now-comes-the-great-unwind-how-evaporating-commodity-wealth-will-slam-the-casino/

#17 W on 12.31.15 at 5:39 pm

Hi Garth, I’ve been reading your blog for a few months now. Thank you for all the wealth management tips.

Now I have a dilemma: I’m in my late 20s and have around 30 grand of student loans to pay off. I have an option of dumping around 20K savings into the student loans and be less in debt, or leave that 20K in my TFSA for investment.
Which one is the better option?

What’s the debt rate? — Garth

#18 Sebee on 12.31.15 at 5:42 pm

Thanks for another year of sunshine, laughs and info.

Happy New Year to you and all the loiterers around here as well.

#19 Shirley valentine on 12.31.15 at 5:46 pm

Happy new year to a rockin bangin fun blog. And especially to the one and only smokey man! Have a rippin good evening.

#20 BobC on 12.31.15 at 5:47 pm

Happy and healthy New Year! Your appreciated more then you’ll ever know.

#21 Andy on 12.31.15 at 5:48 pm

Happy New Year Garth!

Thanks for all the posts in 2015. Keep them coming in 2016.

#22 Mark on 12.31.15 at 5:48 pm

Too bad that almost nobody (not even in YVR/YYZ) actually was up last year on RE in Canada, as they don’t own the mythical house that comprises the ‘average’ that the Realtors happen to be transacting in at any given measurement of their data collection. That’s why using the Realtors’ “headline” numbers, not adjusted for changes in the sales mix, is so dangerous to one’s perception of net worth.

As we saw over the past year, the Canadian dollar dropped dramatically against that of our largest trading partner. Yet prices on the shelves barely budged. Canadians, facing falling RE prices *on the RE they actually own* are digging in, reducing their spending, thus attenuating any inflationary pressures in the economy. The next year promises to be a continuation of the same, perhaps with even explicit CPI deflation as the Canadian dollar’s speculatively-driven decline reverses itself on account of the US economy being shown to be far less robust than some may claim.

A rate cut will only create inflation.

A rate cut will not create inflation. A rate cut will, at best, keep the economy from going into even more significant deflation than is already in the pipeline.

#23 TurnerNation on 12.31.15 at 5:50 pm

Seems ok here…:

Personal rates of return
These rates of return show the net performance of your plan as of November 30, 2015.

Since July 1, 2015 -0.9%
For the past 1 year 5.5%
For the past 3 years * 7.2%


#balancedport
#moneywheremouthis
#treasuryblondes

#24 Stephen Kish on 12.31.15 at 5:50 pm

Mr. Turner may have not appreciated the consequences of U.S. “place of birth” tax law on Canadians citizens who the United States deems, on its own, to be “US Persons”.

The real harm is caused by the decision — a betrayal of trust — of our own Canadian government to enforce foreign legislation (the U.S. FATCA law) making it mandatory to hunt down and turn over all Canadian citizens having a U.S. taint to the U.S. Internal Revenue Service. Our government is however honest as to its motivation: Canada must enforce the U.S. FATCA law because of the threat of severe economic sanction by our trading partner should it not comply.

In September, banking information on 155,000 private Canadian accounts was sent to IRS because we were not successful in our first trial in Canada Federal Court. Next September more will be sent if our second trial is not successful.

So, what should affected Canadians do (I will argue that all Canadians are affected)?

Mr. Turner suggests five options: “learn to file, get a fair accountant, ditch the TFSA [taxed by IRS but not by CRA], or renounce” and option five: come to his blog “to moan”.

There is also option six (presently the most popular option in Canada), to “do nothing” — but this can cause anxiety because if you are “willful” in doing nothing, U.S. law will insist that you are performing a criminal act.

I suggest that Canadians consider option 7: Sue the government that took away your Charter rights and the sovereignty of our country.

Two plaintiffs are now proceeding to a Constitutional-Charter trial in Canada Federal Court, and those interested in supporting our lawsuit against the FATCA compliance legislation can go to our website: http://www.adcs-adsc.ca for information.

Our claims (in much legal language) can be found here: https://adcsovereignty.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/hillis-filed-amended-statement-of-claim-to-the-defendants.pdf You may wish to read up on sections 7, 8, and 15 of Canada’s Charter of Rights, brought to Canada 35 years ago by the father of the Prime Minister we are now suing.

— Apart from the human rights issue, does it really make good economic sense (your bottom line?) for Canada and the banks to spend our monies to assist the United States in transferring Canadian-made assets from U.S.-tainted Canadian families to a foreign country?

Stephen Kish

Chair,
Alliance for the Defence of Canadian Sovereignty
[email protected]
http://www.adcs-adsc.ca

#25 W on 12.31.15 at 5:51 pm

Hi Garth, I’ve been reading your blog for a few months now. Thank you for all the wealth management tips.

Now I have a dilemma: I’m in my late 20s and have around 30 grand of student loans to pay off. I have an option of dumping around 20K savings into the student loans and be less in debt, or leave that 20K in my TFSA for investment.
Which one is the better option?

What’s the debt rate? — Garth

——

It is on variable rate, prime + 2.5%.
I’m guessing any (sensible) investment would net me a gain?
I use Tangerine’s mutual funds instead of ETF (yes I know, not the best; but I’m not confident in the switch to ETF and annual rebalancing until I gain more knowledge about the market)

Pay it off. — Garth

#26 Not 1st on 12.31.15 at 5:55 pm

Well it took the US 7 years to raise rates. I expect a similar result for Canada this time around since we ducked 2008. Cheap money going to be here for a while yet. No reason to pay down anything.

Be sure to tell us how that works out for ya. — Garth

#27 acdel on 12.31.15 at 5:58 pm

Tough times ahead but we Canadians are some of the luckiest to live in a great country such as ours; Happy New Years and great wishes for the New Year!

#28 Irish Stew on 12.31.15 at 5:59 pm

Garth,

Thanks for the year and to many more of the blog.

Let me give you the scenario needing help (I have been fortunate):

– I am 40 and married w/ 2 children.
– Our (wife and I) TFSA, RESP and RRSP are full
– I have zero debt and own a home (don’t cringe)
– I am sitting on $200k cash unsure of what to do with it

I know you give the alternatives to those making poor decisions – can you help me as someone who has followed your direction on the next phase?

Too many unknowns to comment. Salaries? Pensions? Home value? Amount in registered investments? Assets held? Ages? Parental, siblings obligations? Breed of dog? — Garth

#29 Godth on 12.31.15 at 6:00 pm

Happy New Year Everyone!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PN5JJDh78I

#30 Fine Wild Roasted Gonads on 12.31.15 at 6:06 pm

#29 Godth on 12.31.15 at 6:00 pm

Happy New Year Everyone!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PN5JJDh78I
——-
Beauty. Sagan is awesome.

#31 Arb Watson on 12.31.15 at 6:07 pm

Debt makes people more productive as they need to pay it off.

#32 Irish Stew on 12.31.15 at 6:12 pm

Salaries? $300k
Pensions? No
Home value? $300k (SW Ontario)
Amount in registered investments? $500k
Assets held? No
Ages? Parental, siblings obligations? 40 and kids are 10/8
Breed of dog? Nope (2) lovely cats

Basically I have my TFSA, RESP and RRSP obligation and the rest is clear, hence the accumulated cash. If still too vague, I understand :)

I appreciate your efforts thru the year.

#33 kommykim on 12.31.15 at 6:13 pm

RE:HNY
And a “Horizons Natural Gas Yield ETF” to you too Garth! ;-)

#34 Boomer60 on 12.31.15 at 6:15 pm

Happy New Year Garth.

Thanks for the blog and sensible advice!

#35 the Jaguar on 12.31.15 at 6:15 pm

Zero debt on December 31st at midnight. It’s a Scottish tradition. If you aren’t at zero debt you aren’t really Scottish. Just faking it. Likely in many other aspects of your life.
You don’t have to teach a border collie to herd sheep. It’s in their DNA. And so on…..

#36 kommykim on 12.31.15 at 6:19 pm

RE:

#22 Mark on 12.31.15 at 5:48 pm
A rate cut will not create inflation. A rate cut will, at best, keep the economy from going into even more significant deflation than is already in the pipeline.

Please make it your new years resolution to stop saying this…..

#37 Doug t on 12.31.15 at 6:19 pm

HFNY

#38 Broke Dick on 12.31.15 at 6:19 pm

Garth, I’m noticing that this might be free advice night. ( from all the comments you have replied to).
So here is my question. I have a tenant in my basement named ‘Mark”. He is a bit of a show it off dick, but he is still paying the rent on time ( also I steal off his cable, he doesn’t know).
But one thing that drives me crazy is that he talks about sales dicks or mix while he is sleeping and this is keeping me up at night.
So my dilemma is do I evict his sorry white ass or do I keeping on taking his money?
Signed,
happy and crazy.

Btw- happy new year

#39 Brian Ripley on 12.31.15 at 6:21 pm

“Prices in our bubbliest markets have increased by six times the inflation rate…” Garth

On my “compare Vancouver & Toronto Housing” page: http://www.chpc.biz/compare-toronto–vancouver.html

… I have a small chart (towards the page bottom on the right) that I track the rise in City SFD prices against Provincial earnings per capita and in the last 10 years average SFD Prices and Employment Earnings are up:

116% in Vancouver SFDs & 29% in BC Earnings
77% in Calgary SFDs & 46% in AB Earnings
96% in Toronto SFDs & 28% in ON Earnings

Earnings data are reported by StatsCan 2 months lagging… but when we get the Oct-Nov data on the chart, I bet we have a much greater disparity between the two metrics especially if the bulls can move SFD prices higher which is a popular opinion especially here in Vancouver where the cheapest “tear-down” house suitable for a building lot in the city limits is +/- $1,000,000. But the buyer would have to accept a small lot in an inferior location for that price. If you actually wanted to live in Vancouver and build a SFD, you have to spend at least $2mil to get a decent address… and it would still not be a tony address.

ps… I was in Victoria this week and there is a very large “tent city” (where the fentanyl overdoses are happening) close to the provincial parliament buildings and Beacon Hill Park …. nice location, zero rent.

I think the social contract needs work in this country.

#40 Not 1st on 12.31.15 at 6:24 pm

Garth you are playing the doomer now.

So I should sell my business which is under loan at 3% to free up capital to pay off my mortgage which also at 3% because rates might spike a quarter point in a year?

that’s overly defensive wouldn’t you think?

All my money goes into my business and not my mortgage because it creates a double digit ROE while the assets are being paid down by 3% and gaining capital appreciation of 3% per annum. My house isn’t doing that so I ignore it.

#41 I'm stupid on 12.31.15 at 6:24 pm

#32 Irish Stew

Just go get a fee based advisor. Keep doing what you’re doing. Don’t use debt for anything and you’ll be able to retire in 15-20 years.

#42 juno on 12.31.15 at 6:24 pm

A buddy of mine just bought me lunch thanking me for telling him to get the back to guarantee a fix rate for him. At they guaranteed the rates he has time to decide so he locked in for 5 years.

Although he only has 100,000 left in his mortgage he felt relieved having done that. The stress of watching the rates closely would of been too much stress.

Now that was almost months ago, before the fed hiked their rates. Now for those virgins trying to lock in, it will cost them.

Variable rates were 1.80 percent , the lowest in 2.09 , that is 15% increase on rates, but also risky. So if you lock in at 2.54. That is approxiately a 22 percent increase on your payments.

The question is what’s next?
After the five years rates could be back to normal at 6 to 8 percent. That would be a approxiately a 500% increase .

As in pulp fictions …. “The spider has just caught a fly”

Now it S&M time, get the gag ball…..

#43 Ontario's Left Coast on 12.31.15 at 6:25 pm

Happy New Year to Garth and all the Dawgs! It’s time to put this gong show of a year behind us and start looking forward to better investment prospects in 2016. Anything I gained this year came from saving but I’m buying assets (relatively) low and will continue to look for opportunities to improve the outcome 12 months hence.

As McCartney and Lennon said, “I must admit it’s getting better; it couldn’t be much worse…” Cheers to all!

#44 Min In Mission aka Geezer Idiot on 12.31.15 at 6:26 pm

HNY right back @ ya GT, and all the rest.

Thanks for all the advice and the wonderful examples. Wish that your knowledge had been around (and as easy to get and understand) 30 years ago. If it was, I was too busy being young and ignorant to see it.

I really hope that the younger people pay attention and follow some of it. Everyone seems so hung up on ‘stuff’ and ‘things’ that they have no eyes to see life.

#45 mitzerboy aka queencity kid on 12.31.15 at 6:28 pm

happy new year garth and all blogdogs

wishing uall

health, happiness, and a balanced portfolio

in 2016

#46 Freedom First on 12.31.15 at 6:40 pm

Yes. I will be having a TFSA movement tomorrow.

……Ottawa would rather have you indebted and dependent than solvent and free. -Garth

Yes. There has been and is many forces at work in the world that look at me only as a utility to be used for whatever can be siphoned from me. Be it my labour, time, or resources. Thank God for free will for all of us, especially me.

May the New Year be Healthy and Prosperous for you, Garth, as well as all of the Blog Dawgs. Peace.

#47 Freeman on 12.31.15 at 6:43 pm

This guy has it correct, here is his words:

{{{ “Funny how this “Santa Claus” rally that I predicted wouldn’t happen this year, didn’t. The last time was in 2007 and 2008 – the last years the stock market crashed. – – – the second and biggest trigger I’ve been warning about is China’s unprecedented real estate bubble collapsing… – – – Chinese buyers are bidding up the high end in English-speaking countries like they’ll never go down and like they can’t get enough.
We’re talking Sydney, Melbourne, Auckland, San Francisco, Vancouver, Toronto, …
These markets are considered “Teflon-proof.” They’re not! In fact, they’re some of the greatest bubbles that exist today.
Guess what happens when the bubble wealth in real estate that has built up in China finally collapses? What happens is so does the capacity of the more affluent Chinese to buy real estate around the world ( Like Toronto, Vancouver).
– – – – –
China is going down. The China Beige Book (which is much more accurate) recently showed that, across the board, economic conditions are unraveling.
There will be no soft landing in China. It will bring down the entire world’s unprecedented debt and real estate bubble. And it’s only a matter of time, and likely only a few months away at this point.
Now’s the time to get out of real estate… and stocks… ” }}}

http://economyandmarkets.com/markets/housing-market-markets/chinas-unprecedented-real-estate-bubble-is-a-ticking-time-bomb/

= = = = = = = =

Well, I’m not too sure about stocks (maybe, maybe not), but he is 100% sure about real estate falling when China falls. It has less to do with HAM money, and more to do with less demand for our Canadian resources. China’s economy is not ‘going’ to collapse, it already IS COLLAPSING, that’s why demand for oil, steel, copper, and every other commodity has been collapsing during 2015. But the crash is going to get a lot worse, and along with that so will our economy get a whole lot worse, and THAT is what is going to derail our Canadian housing market.

You cannot buy or even keep a house if you don’t have a job.

#48 Paully on 12.31.15 at 6:45 pm

LOVE today’s picture!!!

#49 Huckleberry Finn on 12.31.15 at 6:56 pm

Why would you delete that link Garth?

Crap. — Garth

#50 Lea, south of the border on 12.31.15 at 6:58 pm

#26 Not 1st

I’ve been walking around my Los Angeles neighborhood and it contrasts sharply with my North Van neighborhood. At a glance, there are fewer renovations and fewer late model cars. Here people are still recovering from 2008 and definitely not in a bubble.

In 2006, my Honda was the most modest car on the block, heaps of homes were for sale and many others were being renovated. Today, most of the cars are sedans (gas is expensive in California) and most are not luxury brands.

Vancouver is still very frothy. Lots of construction and new cars. There is a domino effect when people are saturated in debt and the lenders pull in the reins. Yes, yes, I know, this time is different.

To the rest of you, Happy New Year and thank you for the education on Canadian economics! Looking forward to learning more in 2016.

#51 learningfromyou on 12.31.15 at 7:03 pm

Thank Garth for all your time and education.

I have a puzzle for the pros in investments.

initial conditions.
———————
-30k in secured credit line for buying a property in USA.
+61k after selling the property in USA and converting the USD in CAD.
+40k increment in the credit line because the bank considered that I have more equity in my house, also with the option of creating a new mortgage passing the actual -30k as part of the mortgage.

They want to give more money to see me horny at Walmart, not the case

Now the question?
1- should I take the 61k and pay off the credit line, separate what is investment loan return from profit, and the loan return put it in TFSA and profit to RRSP to defer tax payments.

2- should I keep the debt in the credit line and invest the 61k also

3-put -30k in mortgage, take 61k and invest it in RRSP and TFSA and also take the additional new 40k of equity in credit line and invest it as well.

I have other options but I’d like to see the pros creativity that will make me grow as a person.

Please the pros that feel their advises too valuable for a blog simply do not answer and this way I will not end the year with pain in back for their lashes

It’s my next week problem.

#52 BG on 12.31.15 at 7:03 pm

Happy New Year everybody.

May 2016 be kind to your health, loved ones and investments.

#53 LL on 12.31.15 at 7:13 pm

….”Combined with all the tax incentives to buy a home, it sends out the message that Ottawa would rather have you indebted and dependent than solvent and free….”

Which is called “being a slave”….for lonnnnggggg time!

#54 For those about to flop... on 12.31.15 at 7:19 pm

You know you’ve made it in life when you choose to spend New Year’s Eve on a finance and real estate blog!
No tearing up the town for me still housebound I might lay off the pain medication for a few hours and have a glass of Chardonnay with my wife just to be sociable.
Just want to take the time to say that there are some really cool guys and girls on here.
Yeah there are a couple of putzes just like in society itself ,but overall a good crew.
Enjoy your evenings out or if you choose to join me on the blog so be it.
Look out 2016 here comes Garth’s guys and gals.
Peace.

M41BC

#55 Huckleberry Finn on 12.31.15 at 7:21 pm

So you deny that Canadian household Debt to assets is exactly the same as in 1990?

I just said your link was crap. Deal with it. — Garth

#56 waiting on the westcoast on 12.31.15 at 7:27 pm

Happy New Year! Looking forward to more zingers from Garth et all in 2016.

Mapping out my plan for next year… It seems the older I get, the more complicated everything appears to be – probably Alzheimer’s.

#57 waiting on the westcoast on 12.31.15 at 7:29 pm

Ooh… Just to finish the year PDF right. ;-)

M49BC

#58 Smarten up on 12.31.15 at 7:30 pm

Stop asking Sir Garth to do your financial planning on a napkin. Go pay an advisor and stop asking for free advice

#59 Vicpaul on 12.31.15 at 7:34 pm

…and a Happy, Healthy New Year to Garth and all others who make a positive contribution to life on the planet…a precious but tenuous existence, as I have recently been reminded.

#60 For those about to flop... on 12.31.15 at 7:35 pm

I forgot to mention ,even though there are some super intelligent people on here don’t be a dummy and drink and drive tonight.
I wanna see everyone back on this blog safe and sound next year.
ITS NOT WORTH IT!…DONT DO IT!

M41BC.

#61 rainclouds on 12.31.15 at 7:43 pm

Once T2 gets the weed thingy rolling. Tax bonanza!

BC CO WA OR ALASKA are showing the way. You wankers in the east need to get out more…..

HNY !!!!!!

#62 cramar on 12.31.15 at 7:47 pm

For 2016…

“Sunny ways.”

– JT

#63 Chris Scott on 12.31.15 at 7:59 pm

HNY Garth. Thanks for another year of expert work.

Cheers to all.

#64 Randy on 12.31.15 at 8:09 pm

What’s a mortgage ?

#65 Leo Trollstoy on 12.31.15 at 8:12 pm

Happy new year everyone. Time to go spend my USD on hookers and blow.

#66 learningfromyou on 12.31.15 at 8:12 pm

#58 Smarten up

Garth publishes his email on the blog, to ask him I can just send him an email.

Unfortunately the good advisers wants to see you with a minimum amount of funds to justify their efforts, I’m not there yet but still I need and will invest. Kind of deadlock, doesn’t it.

You answer and attitude are just the ones I explicitly wanted to avoid, but it just remembered me the Broke Dick’s story

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/12/10/lucky-us/#comment-416683

#67 Retired Boomer WI on 12.31.15 at 8:25 pm

Well books now closed on 2015.

Loss of $6,825.57 for the year .96% Almost FLAT!!

Happy New Year to Everyone, and may your 2016
be brighter. No matter how dim things might look, it could be, and could get worse, before the sun brightens.

Thankfully, I listened to Garth’s ideas on “Balance” as the numbers sit now at 59.3% stocks 40.7% Safe Stuff.
(right now no Cash sloshing in the investment fund)

Oh well tomorrow is a Gnu Year.

M64WI

#68 Ronaldo on 12.31.15 at 8:30 pm

A couple links that might be of interest to real estate watchers in Vancouver and Toronto

https://sold.watch/

https://www.propertyinsight.ca/

Happy New Year Garth and all. Time to celebrate another year and hopefully a better year to come.

#69 Hang in there | Realties.ca on 12.31.15 at 8:32 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/12/31/hang-in-there/ […]

#70 wade on 12.31.15 at 8:34 pm

What’s gonna keep this bubble inflated…..how about all that stimulus spending….and it’s still gonna take years for rates to normalize…..

#71 Smoking Man on 12.31.15 at 8:36 pm

NAPPY YEW HEAR…………Burp

#72 peter on 12.31.15 at 8:42 pm

Thanks once again Sir Garth T., for all great guidance in 2015, and hope more to come on 2016, all the best please stay healthy always, I need you around for a while longer sir. My pooch loves you too.

#73 CheekyBugger on 12.31.15 at 8:44 pm

“In 2015 most investors were spanked. No wonder.”

– not the ones you invested in RE in GTA.
Purchased detached in Feb. 2010 in Brampton 427K. Put in Basement 23K – got rent for 5 years. (almost recovered that money) – sold in Sept. 2015 for 655K. A lot better then those flogging TFSA/Stocks balanced or un-balanced. does not matter.

RE always end up getting you on the top – telling you :-)
(now wait GT fire up a return salvo extolling virtues of Balanced portfolio)

My statement was for one year and you are comparing it to a five-year period. Over one year a buy/sell in suburbia lost money after closing and sake costs. Over five years a balanced portfolio at least equalled the house, and no tenants to sweat over. Plus, you didn’t need to go near Brampton. — Garth

#74 Carl on 12.31.15 at 8:45 pm

Holy cow! I just noticed you and Ken Krantz are one and the same! Watch and listen to him, you guys are identical!

#75 learningfromyou on 12.31.15 at 8:55 pm

#64 Randy

MORTGAGE = DEATH PLEDGE: Latin words Mort-Gage Literally Translated Mort Means (Death) Gage Means (Pledge) “Debt Slavery=Human Mortgages=Debt Till Death!

http://truedemocracyparty.net/2013/01/mortgage-death-pledge-latin-words-mort-gage-literally-translated-mort-means-death-gage-means-pledge/

another good explanation of the word

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortgage_loan

#76 common sense on 12.31.15 at 8:56 pm

Thank you for your time and advise this year Garth..

We all appreciate it.

May everyone have a peaceful and prosperous 2016.

M54ONT

#77 For those about to flop... on 12.31.15 at 8:56 pm

#67 Retired Boomer WI on 12.31.15 at 8:25 pm
Well books now closed on 2015.

Loss of $6,825.57 for the year .96% Almost FLAT!!

Happy New Year to Everyone, and may your 2016
be brighter. No matter how dim things might look, it could be, and could get worse, before the sun brightens.

Thankfully, I listened to Garth’s ideas on “Balance” as the numbers sit now at 59.3% stocks 40.7% Safe Stuff.
(right now no Cash sloshing in the investment fund)

Oh well tomorrow is a Gnu Year.

M64WI

//////////////////////////////////
You posted your losses to the cent ,you crack me up Boomer!
I don’t suspect you have any trouble with the IRS with honesty like that.
Take care, nice code by the way …thanks for your support .

M41BC

#78 Old Man too on 12.31.15 at 8:58 pm

HNY Garth and all of the comics that frequent this space.

#79 common sense on 12.31.15 at 9:01 pm

As a dual citizen living in Canada, filing always in the USA, for the past year I have jumped thru hoops attempting to fulfil the IRS obligations regarding full disclosure of my past income dating back to 2001….funny when they keep asking for past income dating back over 7 years, they cannot understand how one has accurate knowledge of income, investments from years OVER 7 years as records by law can be destroyed…Unfreakingbelievable.

Yet if you do not fully comply you are basically considered in avoidance and in contempt of law even though the US Gov’t themselves only started asking for the information in 2013…

Reason 2035 why I dislike revenue collection agencies…

#80 saskatoon on 12.31.15 at 9:22 pm

hny, garth!

#81 Ronaldo on 12.31.15 at 9:25 pm

Words of wisdom going into 2016 from the great Sir John Templeton……..

http://www.wallstcollege.com/5-investment-quotes-from-sir-john-templeton/

#82 LP on 12.31.15 at 9:27 pm

#54 For those about to flop… on 12.31.15 at 7:19 pm
You know you’ve made it in life when you choose to spend New Year’s Eve on a finance and real estate blog!
***********************

I here you FTATF. Hubby and I are spending the evening “in”, him with his glass of single malt and I with my Irish whisky. And – this is the important part – with our newly acquired dog, the one we said we’d never again have.

She’s a 5-year old kennel dog, the kind that is kept for breeding only and then put out to pasture to caring homes. Robin is a beautiful, elegant, and gracious tri-colour Scotch Collie. We are so blessed! 2016 is going to be wonderful!!!

F68ON

#83 JSS on 12.31.15 at 9:30 pm

I’m betting for TSX at 14,200 by end of 2016.

===

Thanks to GT and others who gave some good solid advice this past year! You’re awesome people.

#84 Dm2 on 12.31.15 at 9:31 pm

Godth

Thank you.

#85 Retired Boomer WI on 12.31.15 at 9:35 pm

#77 For Those about to flop…

You have to remember, I worked with numbers all my life.
Though now retired, precision in numbers is still a HARD habit to break!

(You be around here at balance the checkbook day!!)

If I can’t find the .23 cents it becomes an obsession. Hey we have our idiosyncrasies, that happens to be mine.

Driving is a different story + or – 10 I’m doing the speed limit -drives my wife nuts, and on occasion anyone behind me. Oh, I park by sound, too.

Have a Happy Evening and the Best in 2016

M64WI

#86 For those about to flop... on 12.31.15 at 9:41 pm

#82 LP on 12.31.15 at 9:27 pm
#54 For those about to flop… on 12.31.15 at 7:19 pm
You know you’ve made it in life when you choose to spend New Year’s Eve on a finance and real estate blog!
***********************

I here you FTATF. Hubby and I are spending the evening “in”, him with his glass of single malt and I with my Irish whisky. And – this is the important part – with our newly acquired dog, the one we said we’d never again have.

She’s a 5-year old kennel dog, the kind that is kept for breeding only and then put out to pasture to caring homes. Robin is a beautiful, elegant, and gracious tri-colour Scotch Collie. We are so blessed! 2016 is going to be wonderful!!!

F68ON

////////////////////////////////////////
I hope you and your husband have a relaxing evening ,maybe you should have posted a picture of Robin.
I don’t think the boss would mind.
Cheers to you LP
Thanks for the code support as well.

M41BC.

#87 Leo Trollstoy on 12.31.15 at 9:42 pm

Fortunately blog dogs weren’t dumb enough to have investments in gold.

http://fortune.com/2015/12/31/gold-prices-2016/

#88 For those about to flop... on 12.31.15 at 9:44 pm

Can I call one of you guys in Ontario at 9:01 B.C time to see if next year is alright???

M41BC

#89 BigDaddy on 12.31.15 at 9:51 pm

What will be the next bubble?

#90 AK on 12.31.15 at 9:54 pm

#73 CheekyBugger on 12.31.15 at 8:44 pm
“In 2015 most investors were spanked. No wonder.”

– not the ones you invested in RE in GTA.
Purchased detached in Feb. 2010 in Brampton 427K. Put in Basement 23K – got rent for 5 years. (almost recovered that money) – sold in Sept. 2015 for 655K. A lot better then those flogging TFSA/Stocks balanced or un-balanced. does not matter.

RE always end up getting you on the top – telling you :-)
(now wait GT fire up a return salvo extolling virtues of Balanced portfolio)
=======================
Bully for you. In 5 years(+), you didn’t even double your investment.

Since 2010, my Stocks only portfolio has almost grown three fold.

#91 Kenchie on 12.31.15 at 9:56 pm

Happy new year Garth! May 2016 be prosperous for you and your family, as well as your clients.

Cheers

#92 Entrepreneur on 12.31.15 at 9:58 pm

2015 has come and gone, now 2016 it is, raise my drink to you all and hope for a do-not-die year. Is this the rise-and-fall that some of us have been taught or a roller-coaster ride? Happy New Year to Everyone!

#93 debtified on 12.31.15 at 10:14 pm

Happy New Year, Garth! I wish you and your loved ones a healthy, happy and productive 2016. I am looking forward to another year of learning from you.

Thank you!

#94 ed on 12.31.15 at 10:20 pm

2016 is the year of the fire monkey; which, in Chinese zodiac, is a year of change (or for some of chasing their own tails).

I don’t think Garth can predict housing prices will drop 50%, but I think it’s highly likely there will be some unpredictability–just as the rise in house prices has not been logical (nor, for that matter, the commodity bubble, and look how that’s ending). One thing is clear, Canada is no longer the golden child; that bubble has burst. I think 2016 will be the year the gasbag of a RE bubble starts to deflate. There’s a change.

#95 LL on 12.31.15 at 10:29 pm

#64 Randy

Mort Gage: work till you drop!

#96 JimH on 12.31.15 at 10:33 pm

Happy New Year to Garth and all the dogs!

#97 midbach on 12.31.15 at 10:50 pm

Thanks for another year of entertaining daily reads Garth.

All the best in 2016!

#98 Smoking Man on 12.31.15 at 10:51 pm

DELETED

#99 Sam on 12.31.15 at 10:52 pm

Hello Garth,
I want to thank you for all the stimulating and free education over the years. I to recently conviced a friend not to buy,,,yet.

#100 LP on 12.31.15 at 11:09 pm

#86 For those about to flop… on 12.31.15 at 9:41 pm
…maybe you should have posted a picture of Robin.
I don’t think the boss would mind.
******************************
I would but don’t know how to provide a pic that isn’t actually a copy/paste one. “The Boss” probably wouldn’t appreciate my doing that.

Happy New Year by the way!

F68ON

Any suggestions?

#101 conan on 12.31.15 at 11:19 pm

Happy New Year everyone!
My one big question is what is Smoking Man posting about when I see the one word DELETED on his posts?

I see these about 4 times a week.

Save me Obi-wan Ken-garth-ster you are my only hope.

#102 Nemesis on 12.31.15 at 11:31 pm

#BonneAnnéeChiens… #SeasonalDogTreat,Or… #PagingBrianDePalma…

[TheHill] – Report: Rubio used whip position to help brother-in-law

…”Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) helped his brother-in-law, who was convicted for cocaine trafficking, receive his real estate license while the GOP presidential hopeful was serving as majority whip in the Florida House of Representatives, according to a report by The Washington Post… …Florida doesn’t bar felons from obtaining real estate licenses…”…

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/264469-report-rubio-used-whip-position-to-help-brother-in-law

#103 turn of the tide on 12.31.15 at 11:40 pm

Thank you Garth! HNY to you! Looking forward to reading your blog in 2016!

#104 Annek on 12.31.15 at 11:49 pm

To #38 broke dick
I appreciate Mark’s comments.
What’s your issue?
Mark- please continue to comment in 2016

#105 Smoking Man on 12.31.15 at 11:52 pm

#98 Smoking Man on 12.31.15 at 10:51 pm
DELETED

Still love you Mr editor, saving my ass Every time. But my ass is open game, live by the sword, die by the sword. Its only fair.

Before I hit the bottal. I always change my password to my blog with shut eyes.

Self preservation. or extended presiv.

Which leaves anyone with any form of rabid paranoia,

Thinking my post was about them.

Ill clear the air you paranoids, it was about you, and your mother.

Happy fking, new year..

#106 Shirley valentine on 12.31.15 at 11:56 pm

Happy banging new year to all.

#107 stage1dave on 01.01.16 at 12:06 am

Well, damn…while droning on about the Arrow last nite I managed to confuse McIntosh’s book with Lynch’s. The reference should have read “Ottawa Unbuttoned”, not “A Funny way to run Country” (tho’ it’s a great read as well) so my apologies to both as well as anyone who may have been googling a non-existent read…

Hoping for the best in 2016 :)

#108 earlybird on 01.01.16 at 12:07 am

I have been a reader here for years…absolutely fantastic writing, wit, content, and comments. Thank you so much, I am beyond grateful!! Happy New Year! 2016 will be interesting for sure! XO

#109 Basil Fawlty on 01.01.16 at 12:31 am

US job numbers do not reflect the true state of employment, since they do not include those considered no longer looking for work. A better indicator is the labor participation rate, which is the worst since 1978. In addition, the jobs currently being created a predominantly part time service oriented, with virtually zero manufacturing positions created.
The Dalls Feds Manufacturing Index has been down for the last 12 months, while 124,000 mining jobs have been lost in the same period.
Imports and exports are also down, while real estate sales are down 10%.
The Fed has increased interest rates into a slowing economy.

#110 Hurly on 01.01.16 at 12:39 am

What’s with the code? Did I miss something yesterday.
Happy 2016

M37BC

#111 Smoking Man on 01.01.16 at 12:53 am

2016

Hello darkness, my old friend
I’ve come to talk with you again
Because a vision softly, creeping
Left its seeds while I was, sleeping
And the vision, that was planted in my brain… still remains
Within the sound of silence
In restless dreams I walked alone

Narrow streets of cobblestone
‘Neath the halo of a streetlamp
I turned my collar to the cold and damp
When my eyes were stabbed by the flash of a neon light
That split the night
And touched the sound, of silence
And in the naked light I saw

Ten thousand people maybe more
People talking without speaking
People hearing without listening
People writing songs, that voices never shared
No one dared
Disturb the sound, of silence
“Fools,” said I, “You do not know

Silence like a cancer grows”
Hear my words that I might teach you
Take my arms that I might reach you”
But my words, like silent raindrops fell
And echoed, in the wells, of silence
And the people bowed and prayed

To the neon god they made
And the sign flashed out its warning
In the words that it was forming
And the sign said, “The words of the prophets are written on the subway walls,
And tenement halls”
And whispered in the sounds, of silence”

#112 Peter on 01.01.16 at 1:36 am

I want to max out my TFSA and, this year, I had emptied it out this year (in-kind transfer to RRSP for tax purposes) yet according to the government, I only have 6000 left in contribution room. What gives?

#113 LuckyRenter on 01.01.16 at 2:24 am

Happy New Year and all the best.

#114 cyclist on 01.01.16 at 2:49 am

30 Gonads – Sagan rocks

http://velonews.competitor.com/2015/12/video/video-peter-sagans-grease-tribute_391981

HNY Garth and blog hounds

#115 MS on 01.01.16 at 2:58 am

Happy 2016 Everyone!!
Looking forward to becoming a part of an amazing blog community!!

#116 Bob S on 01.01.16 at 4:43 am

HNY Garth, you rock.

Agree. Too much risk and little good news other than house horny single asset YVR/416.

This AM, as a lark, went and looked at economic forecasts for Canada in 1989. All were rosy including the IMFs…so much for the Economists.

They make Astrologers look good (yes, stole that from the West Wing).

GDP and Jobs reports from Jan. to Mar. will tell where we are headed (2 Jobs reports and 1 GDP report in Jan. alone). Only dismal Jobs and GDP will slow down YVR/416 RE price growth – their economies are too broad based for one single sector to hurt them (unlike AB with oil and gas).

I think this blog by mid-year will be preoccupied with recession investing and creative ways to walk away from your home without getting hauled in court and foreclosed on.

Ya I know, me and Madani…

#117 Leo Trollstoy on 01.01.16 at 4:46 am

Happy new year. Congratulations to all the godless citizens of Toronto who owned real estate as prices rose across the sales mix for the umpteenth year. Ridiculous.

http://www.movesmartly.com/2015/12/torontos-real-estate-market-in-2015-a-year-in-review.html

#118 Bob S...PS: on 01.01.16 at 4:54 am

I know you’re not fond of them, but interesting BNN poll Nov. 30, 2015:

Do you think Canada’s housing market is a bubble waiting to burst (296 votes, as a part of their “Will ghosts of housing crashes past haunt Canada?”)?

Yes = 70%
No = 30%

May well be statistically insignificant, but if significant, the doom psychology is there (a better question would have been if they added “within one year”).

…then all that is left is an economic shock to make good on that doom psychology.

Hope not.

Hate to see people suffer.

#119 Turtle on 01.01.16 at 5:54 am

Garth… thank you, man!

You have such a beautiful touch with words… the way you talk to people… strong and honest. We need more of this as a nation. Need more honesty, less sugar coating. It feels like society doesn’t want to face the problem and chose to hide from it. It is never “I have to help myself”, but always “THEY have to help me”.

I wish it will change in 2016.

Happy New Year, everyone!

#120 busman7 on 01.01.16 at 7:29 am

“The annual TFSA contribution limit was ripped from ten grand a year to just $5,500 in a crass political move by the new regime in Ottawa”

Don’t you mean, it was raised from $5,000 in a crass political move by the Con regime and returned to its former level by the new user-friendly system?

#121 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.01.16 at 8:14 am

Well the “early birds” beat me too it. Happy 2016
Which raises another question.
Why was Garth or one of the Amazons answering blog comments just after midnight?
Dedication or obsession?
So many financial illiterates…..so little time.

#122 JD on 01.01.16 at 8:24 am

On the point of having 20% growth investments in USD what do u have to say abt the fact that the CAD may be close to bottoming ? Is this the right time to be losing 30% straight gng into US assets gven the currency may recover some if commodities do better in 2016?

#123 Bytor the Snow Dog on 01.01.16 at 8:52 am

HNY MF’ERS!

CGWM54ON.

#124 maxx on 01.01.16 at 8:58 am

Happy New Year Garth and dawgs!

#125 Grantmi on 01.01.16 at 9:24 am

Happy New Year…. To all…

Let’s love each other more n 2016. (And pray Trump does get elected)

http://youtu.be/u9Dg-g7t2l4

#126 Daisy Mae on 01.01.16 at 9:40 am

#7: “Went out this afternoon to pick up a few things and run some errands. Sure are a lot of people in the liquor store; considering they all claim to be broke:)”

*********************

….and the cashier asks: “Will that be debit or credit?” ;-)

#127 Daisy Mae on 01.01.16 at 10:01 am

#32: “Basically I have my TFSA, RESP and RRSP obligation and the rest is clear, hence the accumulated cash. If still too vague, I understand :)”

********************

Oh, just have Garth manage the $200,000 for you….then relax. ;-)

#128 HAM R Us on 01.01.16 at 10:19 am

Happy New Year to Garth and All!

#129 Ontario's Left Coast on 01.01.16 at 10:22 am

#54 For those about to flop… You know you’ve made it in life when you choose to spend New Year’s Eve on a finance and real estate blog!

Haha, that’s exactly what I was thinking, but I wouldn’t have it any other way! Kids and wife were happy watching a movie on Netflix and all I could think was, “I wonder what the scuttlebutt is on GF.” Cheers and enjoy the day!

M48ON

#130 Daisy Mae on 01.01.16 at 10:24 am

#82: “Robin is a beautiful, elegant, and gracious tri-colour Scotch Collie. We are so blessed! 2016 is going to be wonderful!!!”

********************

What a great story! I’ve just filled out application for a rescue dog myself — must be young, small, cuddly. BTW, spent Christmas in the company of a docile pit bull.

#131 For those about to flop... on 01.01.16 at 10:32 am

#110 Hurly on 01.01.16 at 12:39 am
What’s with the code? Did I miss something yesterday.
Happy 2016

M37BC

//////////////////////////////////////////
Hey Hurly,nah you didn’t miss anything.
There was a bit of a brouhaha over the holidays between the Boomers and the Millie’s and people kept repeating where they were from and how old they were ,so I came up with a simple GAP code to put in the bottom of our posts so you don’t have to work it into the conversation each time ,and also maybe help you understand the other persons point of view with a little background with minimal effort.
Hope this helped.

M41BC

#132 Kyle on 01.01.16 at 10:35 am

Thanks for the past year of your blog Garth. Looking forward to your views throughout 2016.

#133 WUL on 01.01.16 at 10:45 am

Silver lining in Alberta. I gave notice to my Ft. Mac landlord to terminate my tenancy effective January31 in the current dump. Now to find nicer digs, closer to work and 30 – 35% cheaper. Nothing like a 22% vacancy rate.

#134 For those about to flop... on 01.01.16 at 10:49 am

I look forward to the Metrosexual Messiah (t.m.) being grilled during question time on parliament hill by the opposition and then giving his sheepish response ” because it’s 2016?”

#135 For those about to flop... on 01.01.16 at 10:52 am

Geez , I forgot my code again.
Whoever come up with it is an idiot!

M41BC

#136 For those about to flop... on 01.01.16 at 11:02 am

#123 Daisy Mae on 01.01.16 at 10:24 am
#82: “Robin is a beautiful, elegant, and gracious tri-colour Scotch Collie. We are so blessed! 2016 is going to be wonderful!!!”

********************

What a great story! I’ve just filled out application for a rescue dog myself — must be young, small, cuddly. BTW, spent Christmas in the company of a docile pit bull.

////////////////////////////////////
You spent Xmas with Freedom First?

M41BC

#137 David on 01.01.16 at 11:10 am

@112 Peter, it can take quite a while for the CRA to get updates on your TFSA transactions from your financial institutions, like months. Check the last transaction that the CRA has on file. If it’s before your transfer into your RRSP the CRA probably doesn’t know about it yet and hasn’t updated your contribution limits. Just keep careful records yourself and check back with the CRA a couple of times a year to confirm they are getting the same information.

Bigger concern: why did you unload your TFSA into your RRSP? Was it entirely USD denominated securities? Because you just made these investments taxable again (eventually).

#138 Doug in London on 01.01.16 at 11:12 am

Yes, the TSX did finish the year down more than 11% but there’s an upside to it all. Because of the drop, there were amazing deals out there last month and still some good deals now on the TSX as well as the NYSE. You are supposed to buy low, isn’t that right? Yes, HNY indeed, because HNY-T is also on sale these days.

#139 For those about to flop... on 01.01.16 at 11:22 am

#129 Ontario’s Left Coast on 01.01.16 at 10:22 am
#54 For those about to flop… You know you’ve made it in life when you choose to spend New Year’s Eve on a finance and real estate blog!

Haha, that’s exactly what I was thinking, but I wouldn’t have it any other way! Kids and wife were happy watching a movie on Netflix and all I could think was, “I wonder what the scuttlebutt is on GF.” Cheers and enjoy the day!

M48ON

///////////////////////////////////////////
Hey OLC , I’m a big fan of doing what you want ,when you want,even if it’s not what everyone else is doing.
Quite often at this time of year we are flying back from the states and people say” what about New Year’s Eve”
I say we just partied for 2 weeks and it is time to take our half price flight back.( lots of bargains nye)
I don’t need to party one more night just because everyone else is.
You could go out tonight for instance for half the cost and half the crowds/ hassle.
Also had to find out what ” scuttlebutt ” was ,we don’t use that word where I come from. It sounded like an STD to me but after I searched it it made sense with your sentence.
Peace brother.

M41BC

#140 maxx on 01.01.16 at 11:23 am

#102 Greedy Developers? on 12.30.15 at 9:44 pm

“Turned on the TV today to BNN to check out the business news and I heard that because interest rates aren’t expected to go up until late 2017 in Canada at the earliest (don’t know how they deciphered this), the Condo developers are expecting prices to rise another 40% over the next 3 years in Toronto ??? Enough comedy for one day in about 2 minutes, so I shut the idiot box off and went out for a run.”

Developers convinced that there’s still another good squeeze of the stupid for profit? Let’s face it, re morons are thick on the ground.

It’s been big plastic smiles all around for FIRE over the past decade and a half.

Nothing changes until people’s circumstances do. The cost of debt will be the catalyst and there’s ultimately nothing Canadian FIRE can do.

The mess is global. Oil…..pfft……jobs…..pfft……re…..pfft

#141 S.Bby on 01.01.16 at 11:34 am

USA is on the rise:

http://www.news1130.com/2015/12/31/us-applications-for-jobless-aid-rose-20000-last-week-to-287000-still-near-historic-lows/

It’s strange how some still deny it …

HNY
M56BC

#142 Ret on 01.01.16 at 11:34 am

#125 And pray Trump does get elected.

JT was clearly anti-Trump in a Lisa LaFlamme interview the other day. Why would he do that? He needs to show some self-restraint until the election in the US has been decided.

JT has something that many Canadians only wish that they had. No, not the hair. A decent paying job.

#143 WUL on 01.01.16 at 11:46 am

Further to my comment at 133, if I may. Do some napkin math on that perfectly ordinary $740K house with the 2 bedrooms “mortgage helper” in the basement. June, 2014 at $1000 per room or $2K toward the mortgage. Now if you can find a tenant, you will receive $650 to $700 per room of taxable income and have to fight hard to crack the monthly nut on a declining asset. Sounds like a foreclosure and potential bankruptcy so far.

This M59AB is learning from our gracious M66ON host.

#144 Smoking Man on 01.01.16 at 12:00 pm

Made five new year resolutions, first one boken 60 seconds after waking up.

Second one within an hour.

3rd, right now.

Four and five will be broken in Niagara Falls ny tonight…

Nothing changes till it does.

Happy new year dogs..

#145 For those about to flop... on 01.01.16 at 12:27 pm

#141 S.Bby on 01.01.16 at 11:34 am
USA is on the rise:

http://www.news1130.com/2015/12/31/us-applications-for-jobless-aid-rose-20000-last-week-to-287000-still-near-historic-lows/

It’s strange how some still deny it …

HNY
M56BC

—————————————————————
#143 WUL on 01.01.16 at 11:46 am
Further to my comment at 133, if I may. Do some napkin math on that perfectly ordinary $740K house with the 2 bedrooms “mortgage helper” in the basement. June, 2014 at $1000 per room or $2K toward the mortgage. Now if you can find a tenant, you will receive $650 to $700 per room of taxable income and have to fight hard to crack the monthly nut on a declining asset. Sounds like a foreclosure and potential bankruptcy so far.

This M59AB is learning from our gracious M66ON host.

////////////////////////////////////

You know what guys I am honestly humbled that you all have you have choose to support my GAP code.
It was a simple idea from a simple man, trying to help us communicate with each other.
I can’t give anyone hot stock tips or argue about macro economics but I’m glad I contributed in some way.
I try to write an original post each time from my heart or to get a laugh as I don’t see the point of posting the same drivel over and over.ie: ” the sale mix has changed”.
You know what you can do with your bloody sales mix…

M41BC

#146 Fine wild roasted gonads on 01.01.16 at 12:36 pm

#114 cyclist on 01.01.16 at 2:49 am
30 Gonads – Sagan rocks

http://velonews.competitor.com/2015/12/video/video-peter-sagans-grease-tribute_391981

HNY Garth and blog hounds
….
Indeed they both do!! Happy riding.

#147 Mac on 01.01.16 at 1:07 pm

My net worth is down 2.9% year over year. I think that’s largely due to me going a little motorcycle crazy this summer and I still have another $10,000 to put into her! Not this year. I’m in new home construction (engineering/design) in Calgary and things are flat out dismal these days. Gonna be a rough year :-( I’m so glad my fiancée and I have zero house lust. Our lease is up in April and there are so many cheap places on the market now. We will be able to drop our living expenses by ~$1,000 a month soon! Love it.

#148 Russ on 01.01.16 at 1:18 pm

Hey Scott,

How come there’s no rain on that sign and the sidewalk is dry? Did you “photoshop” it?

Anyhow, thanks go out to all the gloomers who complain about rain in Vancouver. Please keep it up, as there is already too many people on Vancouver Island (due to overflow, maybe) and I don’t need more to increase my house value to make me feel better about myself. In fact, I regularly contest my annual property assessment value :)

And those Calgary people should get some help to deal with geographical residential inferiority issues that crop up here often. Try rum, or the Alberta favourite… rye whiskey. Like shampooing instruction, repeat as necessary.

And we wish to all, A Happy New Year.
Don’t worry. Be happy.

R
M5*BC

#149 Ronaldo on 01.01.16 at 1:27 pm

#140 Maxx

”….the Condo developers are expecting prices to rise another 40% over the next 3 years in Toronto ??? Enough comedy for one day in about 2 minutes, so I shut the idiot box off and went out for a run.”

I expect we will see new condos advertised for $499,999 in the coming weeks. This bubble won’t end until the last of the greater fools are flushed from the streets and the Banks of Ma and Pa have been cleaned out.

#150 thomas osgoode on 01.01.16 at 1:30 pm

This is a nice write about the inflated BC and Toronto r/e

http://jugglingdynamite.com/2015/12/22/vancouver-and-toronto-home-prices-some-facts-vs-spin/

#151 Vampire Studies GMST 454 on 01.01.16 at 1:45 pm

140 Maxx – most developers I know are very smart people. They understand, recognize and accept risk – to a degree. Many have been around for decades. I might call some
cheap, but few are greedy. Those are the ones that dont last.

#152 For those about to flop... on 01.01.16 at 1:49 pm

I hope your New Year’s Eve wasn’t as messy as this girls.
For me the audio from the onlookers is just as hilarious as the video.

M41BC

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/484498/Woman-loses-clothes-on-ride-video-YouTube-La-Tagada-Zapote-Festival-San-Jose

#153 Winterpeg on 01.01.16 at 2:37 pm

Catching up on sleep, and blog after a stretch of shifts.

Perfect day here for Winnipeg; only -8; usually freezing butts off this time of year. Thank you El Nino.

Glut of condo signs around town in the Peg. Hope to here more about smaller markets in the new year.

Thanks Garth, for your wise $$ advice. HNY to you and your family and the cast of characters on this blog

#154 Mark on 01.01.16 at 2:59 pm

“Yes, the TSX did finish the year down more than 11% but there’s an upside to it all. Because of the drop, there were amazing deals out there last month and still some good deals now on the TSX as well as the NYSE. You are supposed to buy low, isn’t that right? Yes, HNY indeed, because HNY-T is also on sale these days.”

Very well put. I’m actually kind of glad that a lot of the blog dogs and even public financial commentators are lining up against Canada and the TSX. Keeps it cheap for those of us in the accumulation phase, and ensures that only a small chunk of the population will be able to benefit when it eventually does come back. The sun won’t perpetually frown on Canada, especially since we are inherently a very rich and productive country with abundant natural and human resources. History has shown, in times prior, that the deflation of the housing bubble has been very positive for other sectors of the Canadian economy. Underperformance of the TSX typically has led to outperformance.

With so many of the cyclicals of the TSX beaten down 50-90%, the upside could be pretty significant once they start to come back. Meanwhile, the US stock market’s cyclicals are mostly at extreme tops, so there’s a long ways many of them could fall, particularly in the social media-centric tech sector.

#155 Another Albertan on 01.01.16 at 3:02 pm

Parents of a friend put their 100-year-old house in tony Elbow Park up for sale back in June. It was listed at $1.297M. It’s a beautiful home that has been nicely-renovated a few times in the last 40 years. It also remained completely dry during the 2013 flood.

Between June and the end of August, only a handful of showings occurred. An offer was received in August for $1.07M. The realtor instructed the owners to reject “such a lowball offer”. The house remained listed for the fall at $1.2M and received only a handful of showings.

I was informed a few days ago that the house sold before Christmas for $970k. That is a 25% discount to the original listing price, after 6 months on the market.

#156 OXI in GREECE on 01.01.16 at 3:34 pm

#141 S.Bby on 01.01.16 at 11:34 am
USA is on the rise:

http://www.news1130.com/2015/12/31/us-applications-for-jobless-aid-rose-20000-last-week-to-287000-still-near-historic-lows/

It’s strange how some still deny it …

HNY
M56BC
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

its funny how some still believe these phony BS govt stats. What about the 100 million people that are not counted? They are still “unemployed”.

HNY !!

#157 Jimmy Jeez on 01.01.16 at 3:41 pm

Hi, Garth, just recently I start smoking crack pipe. Do you think I’m good to buy some condo in 416?

#158 maxx on 01.01.16 at 4:20 pm

#30 Fine Wild Roasted Gonads on 12.31.15 at 6:06 pm

#29 Godth on 12.31.15 at 6:00 pm

Happy New Year Everyone!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PN5JJDh78I
——-
Beauty. Sagan is awesome.

Missed it when posted on New Year’s eve – arrestingly beautiful and profound. Thanks to you both for sharing this gem and all the best for 2016.

Sagan is indeed awesome.

#159 maxx on 01.01.16 at 4:24 pm

#31 Arb Watson on 12.31.15 at 6:07 pm

“Debt makes people more productive as they need to pay it off.”

A slam-dunk definition of slavery if ever there was. More productive………for whom? Resistance is futile, eh wot?

How about we simply stop borrowing our tiny little brains out?

#160 Oil vs real estate on 01.01.16 at 5:05 pm

#155 Another Albertan

I was informed a few days ago that the house sold before Christmas for $970k. That is a 25% discount to the original listing price, after 6 months on the market.

Still better than oil.
Actually, in Alberta oil kills real estate instead of real estate killing oil.

#161 Hawk on 01.01.16 at 5:09 pm

#154 Mark on 01.01.16 at 2:59 pm

===================

I agree…..for the “long haul”, …….don’t bet against CANADA :-)

In addition, my belief in steady dividend income relative to the low price of shares, has stood me in good stead, in the past, so no reason to abandon it now.

The point to ponder is what ETF / Preferred to put in that TFSA tommorow.

#162 jess on 01.01.16 at 6:15 pm

Gadola ‘s wire …
The DOJ charged Bagios with engaging in a conspiracy with Gadola, Martin Lack and Hansruedi Schumacher (arrested in 2009) of abetting tax evasion by American citizens. He was accused of helping 150 of his American conceal up to $500 million in assets from the IRS while a UBS employee.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UBS_tax_evasion_controversy
UBS Belgium Chief Marcel Brühwiler Detained Over Multi-Billion-Euro Tax Evasion Scheme
http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/in-depth/pressure-on-the-financial-sector-
http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/swiss-bank-admits-cash-and-gold-withdrawals-cheated-irs/41869646
=================================
24 Stephen Kish on 12.31.15 at 5:50 pm

Human rights?

Does Swiss Bank Secrecy Violate International Human Rights?
Stephen B. Cohen
Georgetown University Law Center
July 22, 2013

Abstract:
Prof. Stephen Cohen, whose academic specialty is taxation, also has an interest in international human rights and served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Human Rights in the Carter Administration. In this comment, Prof. Cohen asks whether states like Switzerland, which provide bank secrecy for the offshore accounts of wealthy citizens of developing countries, violate internationally recognized human rights. The United Nations Covenant on Economic, Social, and Cultural Rights explicitly recognizes rights to adequate food, clothing, housing, health care, clean water, sanitation, and education. Bank secrecy has a significant human rights impact if it deprives developing countries of tax revenues needed to meet basic rights guaranteed by the Covenant. The annual tax gap for developing countries caused by bank secrecy is estimated to range from over $100 billion to several times that amount. Thus, it seems indisputable that bank secrecy impedes the ability of developing countries to fulfill internationally recognized human rights.

#163 westcdn on 01.01.16 at 7:27 pm

Both my parents are from Saskatewan, sad but true. They were raised in the dirty 30’s, they taught me a few things.

I like the American, being female or not…. SM, I will stand for you even though it sounds gay!

#164 Ronaldo on 01.01.16 at 8:30 pm

#154 Mark

”Very well put. I’m actually kind of glad that a lot of the blog dogs and even public financial commentators are lining up against Canada and the TSX. Keeps it cheap for those of us in the accumulation phase, and ensures that only a small chunk of the population will be able to benefit when it eventually does come back.”

Am with you on that. Have always done well going against the herd.

#165 Peter on 01.01.16 at 10:42 pm

@David (#137)

I had an unusually high-income year and needed a combination of RRSP contribution credits and capital losses (from my non-reg) to ease up my tax bill. With tax-refund and some of my “good” non-reg equities, I plan on refueling my TFSA to the maximum (again) on Monday.

Thanks for the information on contributions. Wasn’t sure if it had reset yet but looks like Jan. 1st is considered the TFSA “new year”.

#166 Doug in London on 01.02.16 at 11:14 am

@Mark, post #154:
Yes, it’s like 1999-2000 all over again (say, did we survive the date rolling over to Y2K?) when tech stocks were getting all the attention and meanwhile resource stocks (including oil companies) were quite cheap. During these sales, a lot of “experts” said: why would anyone want to buy rocks and trees? I feel myself being drawn into the time tunnel again, where the new tunes Wake up to the Sun by Limblifter, followed by All the Small Things by Blink 182 are playing on station Q92 Timmins, where I lived at the time.

#167 crowdedelevatorfartz on 01.02.16 at 11:26 am

@#155 Another Albertan
“I was informed a few days ago that the house sold before Christmas for $970k. That is a 25% discount to the original listing price, after 6 months on the market.”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Those poor, suffering ‘sellers”.
They owned the house for 40 years and probably paid less than 50k for it in the mid 1970’s.
I feel sorrier for the idiots that just bought it.