On Monday, while Canadians inexplicably had a holiday, the world churned. Oil lost 3% of its value (at $36) and our dollar slide back to 71 cents US. Crude has shed 40% since May and the loonie has dropped 16% this year. Bay Street is off 9%, reflecting depressed profits and an energy sector disaster. Meanwhile household debt’s at a record level and since last December the average Toronto house has gained 11.8%, or six times the inflation rate.
Despite what most young homebuyers believed would happen, US interest rates have started to swell. Meanwhile Canada is shedding jobs and our economy is barely growing – at one third of the global pace.
It’s worth recalling all of this as 2015 grinds to a fetid conclusion. It was a tough year – a recession here for half of it, revolting Greeks, collapsing oil, China devaluing its currency amid a market crash, ISIS and the on-again, off-again Fed rate hike. In all of it, Canada sucked. Our currency was among the most battered on the planet and our markets gave one of the worst performances. While America churned out an average of more than 210,000 new jobs a month, we’re ending the year with a loss of 36,000 in November.
So what now?
Not over yet. Expect more. The Bank of Canada does. Economists, too. Weak oil, weak dollar, weak economy, swampy markets and rising mortgages – thanks to the bond market – even if our central bank nips rates a little before retreating. The really interesting thing is that so few people outside of Alberta and a few other oily places have absorbed this message. For them, 2016 might be one never-ending surprise.
You might have noticed a big divide cleaving this pathetic blog recently.
On one side are the oxygen-sucking geezers and wrinklies, those Boomers aging by the minute who have lived through boom, bust, 20% interest rates, inflation and 2008. On the other are the hordes of moist Millennials, now outnumbering the fossils, who think rates cannot rise, houses always will, their parents blow and Justin will fix the rest. The conflict’s inevitable, but reminiscent of when 1960s-era hippies thought they heralded a new age of politics, tolerance and permissiveness. Then they grew up.
People my age (I barely have a pulse, but an astonishing tush) don’t understand a lot of the moaning heard from the kids who, after all, have youth. What greater asset is there? The moist ones, for their part, want what their elders possess – houses, jobs and boring, predictable lives replete with children and mortgages. Plus weed. (Not going there.)
Meanwhile society is growing a heightened level of risk that the dinosaurs sniff but their children do not. This blog spends a lot of time on real estate, because that’s where the chasm is most evident, with danger building the fastest. When wages and employment are falling, and debt rising, where’s the justification for double-digit gains in house values? Weekly this site trots out the latest stats about over-extended Millennials (with 500% debt-to-income ratios), large swaths of families living paycheque-to-paycheque and the piteous state of investing for most families.
The whole T2 phenom, for the Boomers, embodies the unreality of our times. ‘Taxing the rich’ to give a tax break to the many turned out to be as idiotic an idea as it sounded. Now that $8-per-week break will come via more than a billion in new debt, and do nothing to improve anyone’s life while whipping higher-income earners into a new fit of tax avoidance.
It’s hard to imagine that with a boatload of spending promises and deficits over the next four years we won’t get a higher HST, a war on incorporations, more ruthless revenue cops, enhanced CPP premiums and elevated payroll taxes. I hear there’s even talk at the Department of Finance of a wealth levy, plus a project being done on the merits of an inheritance tax. (Surprise, kids!)
The last Con government of tax-cutting grinches and bullies added $170 billion in debt over eight years. Now we have a new tax-and-spend crew who openly embrace deficits, plus voters who believe their lives will get better because someone else’s ox will be gored. It’s a recipe for more conflict and, probably, failure.
Against that backdrop, this pathetic blog makes a promise.
Every day but Sunday (which is for riding) you can come here for free opinion and guidance on investing, real estate, macroeconomics, tax avoidance and hot marital advice. Money’s agnostic. It doesn’t care if you’re old and decaying or young and fecund. Almost everybody needs help at a time when so many have swallowed a risky one-asset strategy, debt has become mainstream and financial illiteracy binds the nation. We’re not on a sustainable path. No change in government will change the laws of economics. No leader, however charismatic, will revive oil, plump the dollar, give you money or a house.
You’re on your own. Wrinklie or moister. The only salvation is this blog. Resistance is futile.
261 comments ↓
First!
O.k so a lot of Millennials are still at home living rent free.
Fair enough it’s an expensive world out there.
But to expect to be left the house as well in their parents will seems like double dipping to me.
If your parents have indicated that’s what they intend to do then I think Millennials should insist on paying as much rent as possible .
ie: find out the going rate in your area and pay at least 2/3rds of that.
Sounds fair to me.
Most of the comments from yesterday (from Boomers) dissing millennials are distasteful. I know this blog has a bias for Boomers (because of their investable assets) but attack millennials at your own peril.
Oh, a threat. Exciting. — Garth
I’m really concerned about what happens next for Canada. Once people realize that this new T2 government is not all it’s hyped up to be, the reality of lowered expectations will set in. There needs to be more common sense in politics and government but there are too few leaders out there….
Yes Garth, the only salvation is this blog. No resistance here. But if you yourself barely have a pulse, have you thought about a successor to keep it going when you, well you know… Where will blog dogs look for salvation when you are gone?
Oh, a threat. Exciting. — Garth
Yeah, Boomers may end up paying for their own health care when the cookie jar runs dry.
I hear there’s even talk at the Department of Finance of a wealth levy, plus a project being done on the merits of an inheritance tax. (Surprise, kids!)
_________________________________________
Thanks, Garth.
If an inheritance tax (previously unthinkable so don’t laugh at the upcoming comment) is passed, do you think they’ll also start investigating how low/middle income young people can come up with $200,000+ real estate down payments?
Preach it Garth, Preach it!!! These millenials need to drink more milk to grow faster in order to catch up with the reality.
Okay, I’m on deck.
Although a tad premature, I sincerely request some guidance on wealth tax avoidance.
As a late boomer (~1959), we can retire anytime. Will an impending wealth tax tend to drive our portfolio and lifestyle out of the country?
Is it too soon to prepare?
I have no qualms about dumping the homestead (getting rid of “real” property) and using the yacht as a Canadian base.
Of course I want to stick around for half a year and qualify for my share of healthcare freebies.
Cheers, R
While your critiques may be valid, you offer nothing in the way of your ideas on how to get the Canadian economy going again. In fact, I have never seen you write any positive thoughts on what it takes to make Canada work again. This means you don’t know either, correct?
#9 Russ
Forget it. Move to Colombia, buy a great house in a safe town for 200,000 USD. (Which, incidentally, is the amount of investment needed to qualify for a 5 year visa). Pay $900 USD a year for a health care plan in a superior system.
Canada’s health care system ranks pretty low among single payer health systems, and with all the refugees and the like Canadian doctors have warned that it is going to be stretched to the breaking point. Having worked in it myself, looking at optimization and operations research aspects, I think it is very poor value for the money spent.
I can live with a higher tax rate on every dollar I earn over 200k. However taxing people responsible enough to accumulate wealth is repulsive. If that were to happen, all my capital will be moving out of Canada in the blink of an eye.
Vancouver is unkind to some of us, but treats anyone with a home well. Get over it and get on with your lives. Make 2016 the year about making more money so that when things turn, you can get in (if you want to).
That’s coming from someone that has read Garth since 2008, been a bear since 2001 on real estate, and am wealthier than ever.
Now’s a good time to check out your current net worth and plan ahead. This site was conceived on the hind legs of the Vancouver house bubble …
http://goo.gl/eb0aNW
“I know this blog has a bias for Boomers (because of
their investible assets)”….
Poor misguided one. MOST Boomers (according to surveys I have read) have DAM few investible assets.
A sizable chunk has none, Zip, Nada.
Most smart people come hear to learn how to both assemble, and grow said assets. Unfortunately, its not like weed, you don’t just put seeds in the dirt, water, and wait.
You need to keep adding seeds -money- weekly. Wait 30 years, be diversified, and fearless. TFSA and RRSP, tax law knowledge and restrained desires for things.
It DO grow!!
Yes it’s going to be a shit show.
Ontario is a ticking time bomb. The Wynne lunatics more concerned with social justice and man hating initiatives than reducing electricity costs and doing things that attract investment and mfg.
She is a total basket case with zero business sense who guzzles Butt’s kool aid, you know the guy that sees a day of zero emissions.
De-industrialization would be a dream come true. Now he’s got the PM’s ear.
Complete Nutters by any stretch of the imagination.
They own the moist for now, but I sense a lynch mob in four years.
Damage will be complete, get your assets out of their reach, and growing in a country away from these morons and thieves.
Canada Toast I can not understand that mindset. You don”t jump off a cliff and complain that the outcome is unfair on the way down. To get Canada going again we must take our bitter medicine that we so richly deserve.
i knew it!
t2 is the borg queen!
Gartho you ride your harley to church on sunday?
RE:
I prefer my cookie jar to be dry. What kind of cookies need a wet jar anyway?
thanks for the insights.
I don’t think the youngin’s in my age realize how you provide contrarian to all things.
key word being all. cause you know… we’re not that smart n stuff…
Everybody relax,,,, Canada is still Canada,,,, Canada will still be Canada regardless of what comes as the whole world is in the same mess of government-debt and household-debt….
Governments have not paid off their debts in the last 40 years and nor will they in the next 40 years…. It’s a ratio balance between debt and the size of the economy that will become the functioning balance…. Unconventional measures will become the tools that get us to this balance….
Japan, further along this dire path than any other world economy is considering giving every worker a 5% raise over the next several years all in the effort to grow their economies…. Other measures are being discussed by other countries…. Forget the old and in with the new as the old ways, known as normal ways, have proven unable to un-stick this no-growth economy while the irony is that Keynes himself (the oldest of the group) and his medicine applied in strong measure, much much earlier than the now, might have prevented a great deal of the pain many in the world have already gone thru….
I for one will not be surprised to see very soon, world governments and their collapsing economies trialing new unconventional measures…. Normalizing-rates is old-world talk…..
Maybe this is why some younger people are having trouble making ends meet?
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/483731/Man-gets-pointless-ironic-tattoo-ever
I continue to follow your advice and have reaped the benefits. More equity in US then any other country in US dollars and has paid off well. Daughter fortunately backed away from buying house in Vancouver and now renting. I will contribute to RESPs vs a mortgage down payment. Saving money is more difficult for millenneals than in the past but the principles have not changed. Spend only prudently, less than you make and remember retirement is not really that far away. I applaud your blog and efforts Garth-Keep up the good work.
Makes you wonder if Gerald Celente from trends research center just might be right with his forecast for the upcoming years?
eh, I thought the borg queen was better looking, no offense Garth.
The millennials are in for a treat. Their sense of entitlement and fearless leader (T2) are going to lead them into a world of hurt. “Interest rates will never go up” “the budget will balance itself”
I await with baited breath their downfall, and shall Henry smile as I sip their tears.
Lost homes, divorces, bankruptcies, etc.
I hope TRT leads the pack.
Things are tough for millennials.
They where told by the teacher, Obey, Home Work. Tests. Certificate = GOOD JOB.
Everything in life is supply and demand. We have an abundance of emasculated men and woman toting proudly the treasured obedience certificate.
Well guess what children. Everyone and his brother has one. It means squat in a connected world.
You need to be a specialist or a business owner to make any loot at all.
I make a fortune building office and trading automation tools that kill jobs.
Information is free on google, wasn’t like that for boomers back in the day, shit; lots of time in libraries, with 0.01% of info out there now.
But millennials can’t shake the teachers instruction. Mike Harris was Bad. Dolton and Wynne gods.
You ain’t seen nothing yet kids.
Your in for a world of hurt heading your way.
Evolve or Die.
Free opinion and guidance, you say ….
How about some thoughts on retirement portfolio drawdown strategies.
Or does that only come with a pricetag?
May that little boy in the picture never lose his joy of living. I live that every day. Why not? It is a worthy goal, and I try to encourage people to strive for a good life too, but the majority insist on keeping life difficult, and all of their life too. It is not required. The Herd is insane. Self inflicted pain. Over and over again, and then they do it to their kids. Encouraging the same insanity.
Thanks for all of your sage advice Garth, delivered with wisdom and wit. And also, thank you for Posts like
today, as I need to be reminded that life is not always sunshine and lollipops. Keeps me grateful.
Everyone. Cultivate an attitude of gratitude. Start now. Some things you will never be able to control. Some you can control. learn the difference. Or, shut up and live in the misery of your own making. It’s your thinking, stupid.
The photo of Justin, Looks like he’s saying I won? Now what?
How about some thoughts on retirement portfolio drawdown strategies.
How about you start searching previous posts to find ’em, instead of whining in a comment?
the T2 antidote.
reality.. bad!
fantasy.. good!
I wonder how much sleep Canadian politicians are losing thinking that primary industry and housing might crater at the same time (a scenario that is looking more and more like reality as we move forward). I worry what this will do to Canada…what a fallout that large could cause. I’m young, liquid with significant savings, renting…still terrified. To the point I’ve actually costed out/planned giving up my career in Toronto to move to rural Eastern Ontario and owner/operate a septic sucker truck.
Seems I’m not the only one on to BUTTS destroy Canada plan.
http://www.therebel.media/will_trudeau_kill_the_new_energy_east_pipeline_and_thousands_of_jobs
So where do the Generation-X people fit in?
E.g, those born in 1970?
Too young for Boomer, too old for Millennial.
Wow, wealth and inheritance taxes? That’s for encouraging more debt (1000% debt-to-income ratios, $10M mortgages on a $100K income), capital flight leading to a stock market collapse (1000 point TSX) and dollarette (30 US cents)? Garth, I seriously hope that these things don’t happen, or else Canada will be in a Great Depression II lasting a century or more. Greece is a very good example of what Canada will become if our Trudeau II actually passes these regressive laws. No, HST needs to go up to curb consumption and income taxes of all types need to be lowered to encourage people to save, not to borrow and consume excessively
.
#6 TRT on 12.28.15 at 6:01 pm
Oh, a threat. Exciting. — Garth
Yeah, Boomers may end up paying for their own health care when the cookie jar runs dry.
………………………………………………………………………
You better hope not because the cookie jar won’t be full and moist any more.
@Smoking Man
Tonight’s the first time you have ever made any sense.
What is wealth tax? Does Canada already have wealth tax? Or is this something new?
Thanks for the continued advice Garth. I enjoy your blog posts though I don’t post a comment everyday.
I am wondering, why do you feel that bonds (even short term) are still an important part of one’s portfolio? With interest rates only having one way to go, which is up, (you’ve already dismissed negative interest rates as a possibility), why hang on to bonds? Personally, I’m younger and I am fine with a volatile portfolio. Is that the only reason for bonds? To control volatility?
Good posts smoking man.
5.
All things together, Garth is generally a pretty good prognosticator. His advice on real estate…well your mileage may vary (I did very well after buying in 2012 at a time Garth was ringing the alarm bells while those leveraging 0% d/p on tenuous incomes could be more wary)…His advice on broader topics i.e. political currents are much better for me anyways.
Still wanting to know the best trades for 2016 for a middle class millennial like me….Anyone have suggestions
Happy NY
Clearly, the moist ones are young and have yet to, shall we say, grow up. The only reason their immaturity wreaks here is because of some depends clad wrinkly bank. These snot nosed, brain-dead, millenials are a carbon copy of the crusty bank of mom/dad. The first to dis them, yet far quicker to rob their wallets when they come up from the basement and find them passed out on wretched home made wine.
They will be schooled by life soon. Just as they think rates will never go up as they sit in the bank and sign more papers, well, here comes a few more percent of interest at them. As one poster said last night; “we can handle a few hundred more a month”. Well hello, that will more likely be a few thousand a month in mortgage payments. Looks all rosy now but wait till the days come that your mama warned you about.
Fecund? Fecund?
I had to google that.
#34 Smoking Man on 12.28.15 at 7:12 pm
Seems I’m not the only one on to BUTTS destroy Canada plan.
http://www.therebel.media/will_trudeau_kill_the_new_energy_east_pipeline_and_thousands_of_jobs
—-
t2 and his butt pal will really stick it to Alberta. Gonna be a lot of seriously pissed off folks
Well if the T2 government is going to bleed out personal corporations, I wonder how many current MP’s will be affected. Everything sounds perfect until the government goes after your wallet.
“…every day but Sunday (which is for riding)…”
**********************
Great! But tell us…does Dorothy ride with you?
Does she have her own bike? Inquiring minds need to know.
During June-2013 about 2.5 years the blog titled Savers I wrote that 18 year provincial strip bond yields in the 4.27% to 4.42% for a $5,000 RESP contribution to someone.
Their market values are $60.15 versus $45.89 2.5 years ago. This is a total of 31.07% increase in 2.5 years of which 11.07% is interest and 20% is a capital gain.
I am still waiting for interest rates, bond yields to rise after 2.5 years and have been waiting since 1994 to 2000 when many analysts kept saying interest rates, bond yields would rise but they were totally wrong, 9.7% to 6.6% and these same bond yields today in 2015 are at best 3.35%.
The longer term trend is down, down and more down. The Bank of Canada made that clear and a slowing global economy and commodity prices, price inflation and many real estate markets have fallen make this trend stronger.
#12 HFT Dude on 12.28.15 at 6:11 pm
==========================
Not to be inquisitive, but where exactly can capital move to in a blink of an eye?
Unless you in the league where you can move to Monaco, Andorra or Liechtenstein etc, most of the western world is in a worse off state than Canada in terms of the debt ridden culture?
So it’s been explained many times on this blog, to diversify out of Canadian equities, yet the majority of Canadians still hold the lion’s share of their portfolio in maple. What should they be doing now? Should they sell Canadian at a loss, and now begin efforts to diversify? Or should they stick to their current portfolio and try to ride the storm, while collecting their dividends, fixed income, etc.?
#45 Daisy Mae on 12.28.15 at 7:43 pm
“…every day but Sunday (which is for riding)…”
**********************
Great! But tell us…does Dorothy ride with you?
Does she have her own bike? Inquiring minds need to know.
……
See how easy it is to jump to conclusions. The guy owns a Harley and a Hummer.
I mean just the other day, good old Gartho was braging he don’t need Viagra.
Do you really want to know what he does on his day Off.
With wages and employment falling there’s also little justification for an increase in interest rates. But the Fed’s already moved and we’ll see what happens over the next year or so.
I’m more interested in where demand is going to come from. If we don’t get increased demand from somewhere we’ll risk a contraction in GDP. People with money have to spend it to keep an economy moving. Sure, the plebs are tapped out, we all get that but if wealth is hoarded instead of spent we get stagnation. How about tax deductions for every dollar spent in Canada if your income is in the top 1%? Ludicrous? Maybe, but otherwise I’m all for channeling that wealth into bonds to finance deficit spending.
Indeed, it’s possible to run mild deficits forever, even the communists at Bloomberg think so:
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2013-03-12/balance-the-budget-we-can-run-deficits-forever
Jeez we aren’t even allowed the Boxing Day holiday.
Do you ever take a vacation? 6 days a week for 10 years!!
An inheritance tax – what if all you inherit is debt? Do you get a tax write off if all you inherit is debt? Plus if ‘everyone’ is going to live to be 90 plus, can’t see how anyone will have anything left over to bestow (excepting as always the 1%). It will all of it be eaten up from providing necessities of life & care. If you want to feel true terror, check out the rates at your local assisted living or nursing home (if you have one, that is).
On the upbeat side of things, if the moist Millennials do indeed crash & burn, at least they have time to recover being as they are young. The geezers on the other hand are rapidly running out of time, even if they do all of them live to be 90 plus. First most will have to work to age 65 because they can’t afford to have any CPP reductions & those in good health but w/o any other pension income or savings (other than CPP/OAS) will need to work to age 67/70 to optimize those precious pension dollars. This all presumes that the debt load of many of the about to be pensioners is zero, zilch, nada. If they do retire with any significant debt (& if all you’ve got is CPP/OAS & possibly GIS, ANY debt is pretty significant) then not going to be a real good time.
Regarding Canada & the about to be financial apocalypse, some pundit have advanced a theory that Canada’s stock market will ‘rock’ in 2016 – not sure why they think that given what we’ve been hearing but hey, at least it is a positive spin rather than a negative one. It may be totally delusional but it at least isn’t totally depressing like so much of the business news for Canada these days…..
higher HST, a war on incorporations, more ruthless revenue cops, enhanced CPP premiums and elevated payroll taxes.
————————
#52 David on 12.28.15 at 7:54 pm
With wages and employment falling there’s also little justification for an increase in interest rates. But the Fed’s already moved and we’ll see what happens over the next year or so.
I’m more interested in where demand is going to come from
———————
New universal health tax.
Like Obama care,
y r welcome.
Long time reader/boomer here. The attacks on this blog are well warranted in my opinion, Garth same old anti-T2, end of the world chant has been going on for 7 yrs now.
You sure? The Lib gov is just three months old. — Garth
#45 Fine wild roasted gonads on 12.28.15 at 7:37 pm
#34 Smoking Man on 12.28.15 at 7:12 pm
Seems I’m not the only one on to BUTTS destroy Canada plan.
http://www.therebel.media/will_trudeau_kill_the_new_energy_east_pipeline_and_thousands_of_jobs
—-
t2 and his butt pal will really stick it to Alberta. Gonna be a lot of seriously pissed off folks
…..
This is not a threat but more of a prediction. The shit I do best.
Its one thing to be in opposition, dreaming of a perfect world where you can’t do any damage to peoples livly Hood.
Now they have power, and are deliberately and boldly going brag to there faithfully. How they’re going to take the oil sands down. and actually do it.
Whats going to happen when some Jd drinking wack job in fort Mac loses his house, his wife, his identity.. and sees a Butts Clip on Rebaltv.
I gave butts a heads up on his twitter feed.
Rcmp probably has a file on me now.
Along with Mossad, Csis, CIA, FBI.
Its buggs bunny’s fault.
That epic clip I loved as a kid, where buggs bunny got jealous cause daffy duck had a higher price on his head.
So buggs got busy getting in Shit to take the title.
But as she departs, O’Brien sees signs of a new beginning. More Canadians voted in 2015, a huge swath of new MPs was elected, and all party leaders are calling for more collegiality in the House of Commons. She said watching the first week of question period was like a 1960s flashback: no vitriol, and cabinet ministers trying to answer questions.
http://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/retiring-commons-clerk-audrey-obrien-sees-hope-for-a-better-parliament
I have the feeling that Trudeau is getting the message that resources are finite. For example the tax break he gave everyone is going to cost everyone. The Finance Department told him so.
http://globalnews.ca/news/2385855/liberal-tax-cuts-to-take-1-2b-more-out-of-federal-coffers-morneau-admits/
unless Trudeau wants to live in a pretend world, he has to deal with the Canadian economy the way it is. Including rising interest rates. Including declining oil prices. Parliament can deal with finite resources. In fact that is what it is meant to do.
Here’s some high tech projects which build on Canada’s strengths:
– build oil refineries in Alberta
– build a pilot project to demonstrate nuclear energy based on liquid salt
– fund research on commercial and residential battery power
– complete cost analysis of solar and wind power, including the cost of stand-by generating facilities. ( I mean let’s take off the rose-coloured glasses )
“We’re not on a sustainable path. No change in government will change the laws of economics. No leader, however charismatic, will revive oil, plump the dollar, give you money or a house.”
Seriously Garth????…….please tell me you don’t think Trudeau is a “Leader” or even more bizarre “Charismatic”????
And please……………enough with the Pics of this man in the body of your articles also. It’s hard enough looking at him all over the CBC and Globe & Mail !!
Garth may the farce be with you – the dark side beckons resist you must
When you see some people commenting 3 or 5 times a night to bash Millennials, it gives you an hint on their level of frustration and boredom in life.
But it is not a question of age, I’m sure.
The Boomers and Millennials are no so different, they come in all flavors.
When you become so bitter that you are only waiting for some imaginary enemy group to fail, then it’s time for some deep introspection about life and happiness.
I’m a Gen Xer and I couldn’t be happier. We’re in between Boomers and Millennials and that in itself gives us an edge. We haven’t benefited from the easy ride the Boomers supposedly had, but at least we have an ironic sense of distancing (as satirized ad nauseam by The Simpsons, etc.) that keeps us from wallowing in the ridiculously self-entitled perma whine of the Millenials.
Having embraced smart frugality and contrarian principles since stumbling on this blog in 2011, compounded by a steep learning curve in investing through reading The Millionaire Teacher, the Couch Potato guy, The Millionaire Next Door, Mr. Money Mustache and others, my networth has grown in leaps and bounds while I judiciously avoid the bovine herd of realtors and have zombified the nation.
Meanwhile, all around me the herd plows headfirst into debt. These drooling, conformist hooved beings stare incomprehensibly at the storm mounting on the horizon and then go back to chewing the HGTV and realtor-infested cud.
While they count the decades left on their mortgages, I count sweet, sweet dividends tinkling away into my Questrade accounts. Oh herd, who will save thee?
Great post and great blog Garth.
I am always amazed with the patients you show here moderating this comments section. Your dedication to this battle arena and sometimes forum is outstanding. The archives to this blog would be quite a read for future historians if they and we manage to survive.
Anyways, I don’t care to argue with anyone over the subject, but do want to throw out my 2 cents on weed and why I believe it has been an illegal substance for as long as it has. Marijuana is believed to, by many people and cultures, to activate the pineal gland or ‘third eye’ which is key to the further spiritual evolution of our species. This is why I think governments and corporations have had such a hate of for weed over the years.
I really do believe that humanity has lost its way. We are now stumbling and confused like a blindfolded child too dizzy to barely walk. We are mesmerized by a system that has been carefully crafted to silently muzzle and enslave us to the corporate powers and shadow government who really call the shots.
I don’t know the answer, but I do know if we collectively decide not to change, then we still have made a choice. I hope that future and current generations can open up their third eye and become more spiritual beings. We should, and I believe need to have a closer connection to this earth to form a healthy balance in life. I believe if more people shared this balance then there would be far less greed, corruption, scandal and hate in our daily lives.
This is where we are lost.
Only after every tree has been cut
Only after every river has been poisoned
Only after every fish has been caught
Only then will you find that money cannot be eaten
We need to give less power and attention to the money printers and develop and nurture a closer connection and balance with this earth. We should pay closer attention to the wisdom of people who have lived in harmony with this earth for thousands of years. The problems we face are not going to fix themselves…
But more of the same is completely insane
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-10/the-world-s-20-largest-economies-in-2030
World growth predicted GDP in 2030 above.
Canada is below Russia. And this is only if we are lucky.
#35. Bram. Our generation X is pretty good at keeping our nose clean, but we may be parents to some millenniums. Perhaps we have created the greatest narcissistic generation ever?
Ask if Bill Morneau Canada’ Finance Minister and their family will pay a wealth tax, inheritance tax on their $30 million dollars?
I hope real estate and stock markets crash 50% plus so the Canadian government will get 50% less capital gains taxes, income taxes etc. etc.
Like I said:
BOOMERS will be one segment that will fall flat on their face when the interest rate game goes high, following the US. Real Estate will crash and these smug boomers, borrowing money with second and third mortgages to finance Retirement, Casino Fridays and Mexico will be screwed. The one’s that already sold got out high, but without much time left to enjoy:)
“Priced out Forever” buying Millennials, flippers and speculators will feel the ultimate pain.
BTW, Trudeau is a Gen Xer like myself.
TRT…”the cookie jar runs dry..?” Maybe financial ain’t the only kind of illiteracy we need to address here. Canadian healthcare is in trouble no matter what…I’m not sure how you plan to take it away from one demographic and maintain it for another? Is that the proposed revenge of the millennials?
There a young man in Saskatoon who has for the first 19 years of his life been playing video games and smoking weed and living in assorted basements. His first job will be at Jiffy Lube. Eventually, he will replace your brakes…or be the apprentice that roughs in the wiring for your overpriced OSB palace. Great. Legalize it. Just when you thought the Dirt Ball Index of Saskatoon couldn’t go any higher. Yea! We will lead the world in something! Snotty Canadians fear Americanization, how ’bout Yemenization. New Crown Corp…SaskKiff.
Got a coffee for the road a Sunday ago. 7am. Macdo’s. Every employee was a smiling, scrubbed immigrant kid. Banter was not in English. TRT, you might want to prepare to be somebody’s lunch. Maroon.
Stay solvent, work hard, pay attention…preferably without ritalin. And get a library card. Last line of ‘Candide’ is pertinent.
“I hear there’s even talk at the Department of Finance of a wealth levy, plus a project being done on the merits of an inheritance tax. (Surprise, kids!)
—————————————————
Holy crap! Garth “heard” something! But wait! Notice how some of the terminally malcontent on this blog ran with this piece of blatant ideologically inspired misinformation and, while wringing their hands, cry: “Garth, Garth, what am I to do, where am I to go…
Meanwhile, Garth is completely missing the real information about the re-education labour camps we’re building north of Fort Mac. This will be the next PO address for the degenerate capitalists in Canada including all this blog’s right wing commentators. We have your IP addresses…
Was that a knock on your door….?
More info on the wealth levy please.
Are those of us with modest (<$500k) portfolios who didn't jump into the RE madness going to get sodomized?
To generalize: You boomers were the “entitled” ones living on the backs by selling out your future generations (namely gen x), and raised your millenial spawn to think like you do. The only difference is that they inherited your scraps and therefore cannot live as you did.
Just a question:
Stephen Harper’s 2% reduction in the GST / HST is credited with wiping out much of the surplus that was left to him by the Paul Martin Liberals.
How many would prefer that the GST be raised by 2%, to offset something like a (federal) inheritance tax?
Just curious.
[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/12/28/together/ […]
For anyone interested on how to protect themselves from taxation of wealth, assets, investments etc., talk to your estate and tax lawyers and ask about trusts.
It still amazes me that the vast majority of millennials have yet to realize what’s on the horizon, especially as their parents the boomers went through something similar. The cycle continues.
If only we could harness experience and youthful energy instead of this boomer/millennial bicker fest.
I hear there’s even talk at the Department of Finance of a wealth levy, plus a project being done on the merits of an inheritance tax. (Surprise, kids!)
————
Millennial Realist,
I read your earlier post, obviously you vote lefty. You did not really answer my questions
So, Let’s try again. T2 might want a slice of your inheritance.
T2 is a left winger, maybe you even voted for him (although I bet you didn’t see this coming)
Just to clear things up ahead of time, T2 has this on the table because he needs to generate revenue, so he can at least carry out a couple of the things he promised to do.
So, tell me how this benefits you? Try to be specific with out the monologue like last time.
I’ll point out how this affects me: it doesn’t. I’m aleady set, no debt, no mortgage, cash in the bank, and my largest asset is my portfolio (by far). I accomplished these things when I was your age. I’ll probably pay a professional big bucks to avoid all that can be avoided if this idea comes to pass…
Remember, specific answer, on point, no monologue.
Thanks.
PS, I’m not a boomer.
with t2 at the helm it is the best time to be poor in Canada. The single moms will get more money, and the little people will still not care if interest rates rise or fall, dollar goes to zero etc, because they have nothing. never had. they are happy with a bed to sleep in, inside, and food, with free education and health care, and cheap bus fair. who cares.
the plane load arrive in canada every day, so go to work, worry, stress etc, because there are plenty of people who dont. never have never will.
having nothing is very liberating, nothing to worry about. and i am happy to have nothing now. i simply dont care. i used to, now i dont need to. its like getting closer to death. like another year passes its quite nice.
so keep your fancy house, with more washrooms than people who need to use them at any given time, etc etc, excessive bs. we have all been lead to believe you need.
canada provides everything except good weather to everyone and t2 and the poloz will make money worthless but the goods it provides will be enough for the little people. growth and opportunity is irrelevent form 15 million canadian, never seen it, dont know it. a cheque from the goverment is all that is needed.
Dave,
Trusts mean nothing when it comes to death and taxes.
If the millennials want the job market to open up stop sponging off the boomers.The boomers can’t retire as they are too indebted to pay for the now expected house gift(upwards of six figures),school tuition gift(up to $70,000)living rent free gifting,all the cash that flows down has to come from somewhere,lines of credit have to be repaid,retirement postponed.
I dont think boomers are greedy,they’re just tapped out from giving their children a better start and the cost of that is the positions that they should vacate they can’t
Robert from yesterday was getting flak for being an entitled boomer who retired early because he gamed the system.He might have been able to work another ten years if he wanted but didn’t and by his leaving opened up another position for someone else to be gainfully employed with all the perks that go with it.We should be encouraging more early retiring so that more millennials can move up and in to the workforce.
#11 James:
Totally agree, health care in Canada is a complete disaster and getting worse by the second. I have heard nothing but horror stories about the Canadian health care system as of late and have experienced the incompetence first hand myself. What an utter disappointment. Now living in the US, I pay less than I would in “MSP fees” and receive premium care with free medication. For example, was sick recently, went to the doctor and got the meds for absolutely no cost to me outside my monthly premium (which I reiterate is significantly less than provincial health care costs). No way anywhere in Canada can beat that these days.
Garth, do you think the cnd $ will lose another 16% next year? More, less? What number would force the BOC to raise interest rates to spare the dollar?
Any opinions are welcome.
Today’s blog entry sounded very much like it should have been for New Year and posted January 1st…
#71 Smartalox on 12.28.15 at 8:35 pm
Just a question:
Stephen Harper’s 2% reduction in the GST / HST is credited with wiping out much of the surplus that was left to him by the Paul Martin Liberals.
How many would prefer that the GST be raised by 2%, to offset something like a (federal) inheritance tax?
Just curious.
———–
Not me.
Harper had the deficit down to 941 Million by Oct 2015, despite the GFC and crashing commodities.
I would much prefer Trudeau to continue doing what Harper was doing and get us back into the black.
Either way, Trudeau best doll out the taxes slow and easy, the hive is already buzzing…
#68 Big Dipper on 12.28.15 at 8:27 pm
“I hear there’s even talk at the Department of Finance of a wealth levy, plus a project being done on the merits of an inheritance tax. (Surprise, kids!)
—————————————————
Holy crap! Garth “heard” something! But wait! Notice how some of the terminally malcontent on this blog ran with this piece of blatant ideologically inspired misinformation and, while wringing their hands, cry: “Garth, Garth, what am I to do, where am I to go…
Meanwhile, Garth is completely missing the real information about the re-education labour camps we’re building north of Fort Mac. This will be the next PO address for the degenerate capitalists in Canada including all this blog’s right wing commentators. We have your IP addresses…
Was that a knock on your door….?
……………..
Degenerate capitalist.?
Laughing my ass off. What a moron.
Without Capitalists, no govt cushy govt defined pensions. Sunshine club gigs. Money for nothing.
Go to church and get on your hands and knees and pray to what ever god you submit too. Be it a deity, or a tree.
Prey for forgiveness, cause every good Degenerate capitalist I know; have, or are planning an exodus…
SWL.
Only after every tree has been cut
Only after every river has been poisoned
Only after every fish has been caught
Only then will you find that money cannot be eaten
//////////////////////////////////
Can I not buy ice cream though?
For those that are interested, the movie “The Big Short” is out.
What’s with all the fear mongering? Almost as bad as zerohedge.
You talk about wealth taxes, government and cra assaults on personal corporations, I’m waiting for outright wealth confiscation comments, etc. like Canada is all of a sudden out to kill its own citizens.
Bizarre.
Taxes have already been hiked for the wealthy, savings vehicles sliced for everyone and intentions to penalize incorporations announced. Bizarre, for sure. — Garth
It’s going to be a long 4 years. Time for the PCs to restore themselves (not the Alliance/Cons cons).
#78 Millmech on 12.28.15 at 8:52 pm
Robert from yesterday was getting flak for being an entitled boomer who retired early because he gamed the system.He might have been able to work another ten years if he wanted but didn’t and by his leaving opened up another position for someone else to be gainfully employed with all the perks that go with it.
Not what I’ve seen … the guy’s with the “golden jobs” just don’t get replaced in kind. If they are replaced it’s usually with someone cheaper and given less benefits. That is if they are replaced at all. Watched it happen over quite a few years now …
“Harper had the deficit down to 941 Million by Oct 2015, despite the GFC and crashing commodities.”
Nice theory, but the debt of Canada increased by approximately $17B to October of this year alone. A continuation of the pattern which saw the debt of Canada increase by ~$250B in the decade of Harper power.
Not even counting the off-balance sheet stuff at the CMHC which probably is good for another $200-$300B or so.
The net public debt increased $170 billion between 2006 and October, 2015. Not $250 billion. — Garth
A sarcastic post from Nov 27 2013
……………….
#8 Smoking Man on 11.27.13 at 9:53 pm
If you think home owner ship is costly now just wait till !!!!!!!!!
The Dyslexic Tree Hugging Man is done with you.
After years of hibernation the tree hugging kleptocrats publicly sidelined, silenced, and castrated by the hacked emails of East Anglia University and IPCC are back in full force. The carbon tax collectors confident that the life span of the sheepeople’s memory has elapsed are aggressively selling again. Game back on with a vengeance.
While researching this post I came across good old Super Smoking Man’s website. The great Al Gore. Following his links and laughing and crying at the shear absurdity of what these people live and breathe. On one link the author claimed that 98% of scientists think that man made global warming is real. That’s right 98% and that the only way to save the planet is for all of us to go back to living like the cave men.
If you randomly polled 100 people and asked them do you think the world is flat, at least 5 would say yes. A 98% consensus on any topic is imposable. The regurgitated bull shit French kissed to the young schooled birds in the nest is hard to watch. Primarily cause I don’t have a piece of that action, yet.
One would hope that Justin Trudeau, and Cathleen Wynn are Smoking Men, have offshore accounts to funnel there future windfalls from this scam of the century.
But looking at Wynn on stage with Al Gore I got the sense that she is totally into cool aid. The thought of leaving my wealth easily accessible to these infants crawling around in a Vietnamese jungle is a horror far beyond a Colonel Walter E. Kurtz nightmare.
The globalized world has become a competitive winner take all environment, for the nation to prosper we need cheap power, we need creative out of the box thinkers, we need enterprise, but not the kind that gets a negotiated guaranteed hand out by govt. That’s just wrong.
But that’s the future. As any old bastard sitting on a mountain of self-made loot, you don’t like change. But as Martin Sheen playing Captain Willard at the start of apocalypse now said.
“Waiting for a mission … getting softer; every minute I stay in this room, I get weaker, and every minute the tree hugger squats in the bush, he gets stronger. Each time I looked around, the walls moved in a little tighter.”
Screw fighting them, they are coming for my loot no matter what I do, every country, every government.
It’s time to switch teams and make more loot.
It’s time for the Smoking Man to go Green, and get in on all the future action and take my cut….
I’m on a mission now, to pillage and plunder while hiding in sheep’s clothing, every single Toronto Star tree hugger. What a huge market…..
And they will love me at the same time.
I can see it now!!!
The Dyslexic Tree Hugging Man on stage, big crazy eyes, perma smile being cheered with evangelical worship with every hunk of bull shit I through into the audience’s face.
I always knew I had a greater purpose.
# 83, Smoking Man on 12.28.15 at 9:09 pm
“Prey for forgiveness, cause every good Degenerate capitalist I know; have, or are planning an exodus…”
——————————————–
Surely you’re a prime example of what degenerate capitalism leads to.
Don’t let the door hit you on the way out, and keep your plasma nozzle where it belongs – in your ear.
#60 SWL1976
You are talking about poetry to someone who has not acquired the knowledge of the alphabet yet.
#62 Ogopogo on 12.28.15 at 8:17 pm
#35 Bram on 12.28.15 at 7:17 pm
So where do the Generation-X people fit in?
E.g, those born in 1970?
Too young for Boomer, too old for Millennial.
I’m a Gen Xer and I couldn’t be happier. We’re in between Boomers and Millennials and that in itself gives us an edge. We haven’t benefited from the easy ride the Boomers supposedly had, but at least we have an ironic sense of distancing (as satirized ad nauseam by The Simpsons, etc.) that keeps us from wallowing in the ridiculously self-entitled perma whine of the Millenials.
Having embraced smart frugality and contrarian principles since stumbling on this blog in 2011, compounded by a steep learning curve in investing through reading The Millionaire Teacher, the Couch Potato guy, The Millionaire Next Door, Mr. Money Mustache and others, my networth has grown in leaps and bounds while I judiciously avoid the bovine herd of realtors and have zombified the nation.
Meanwhile, all around me the herd plows headfirst into debt. These drooling, conformist hooved beings stare incomprehensibly at the storm mounting on the horizon and then go back to chewing the HGTV and realtor-infested cud.
While they count the decades left on their mortgages, I count sweet, sweet dividends tinkling away into my Questrade accounts. Oh herd, who will save thee?
——
LOL! Good post. I am a gen X, born of a near boomer Dad, and a full blown Boomer Mom!
Gen X marks the last sane generation IMHO. Many of my peers are set, some still have a mortgage payment, but the list is shrinking.
Honestly, I think gen X’ers had it even easier than the boomers (DON’T TELL THOSE MILLENNIALS!).
We got cheap school, and even grants for post secondary! , decent job market, high paying jobs, cheap houses and awesome never to be seen again mortgage rates right though till full ownership. Now our houses we bought cheap are worth stupid money thanks to the millennials!
If you were born in the early 70’s, and bought RE in your late 20’s, you got it all baby!
This blog and its comment section gives me indigestion.
Educational blog for sure…..enjoy the comment section….beginning to appreciate that times are changing….or are they….
Don’t what all the whining is about, I’m coming off an excellent year and 2016 looks great too. My GTA house is up and I have $0 invested in stocks, bonds, ETF’s and other such bullshit.
Cheer up, that musty basement can’t be that bad.
Joe Oliver has posted an interesting article in the Financial Post which is worth the read. Personally if I met him or Harper in person I would be hard done by by not punching them in the face, why, they had the power to be more transparent with Canadian’s and make the tough decisions that needed to be made, now, it’s too late!
#79 Thomas writes:
“Now living in the US, I pay less than I would in “MSP fees” and receive premium care with free medication. For example, was sick recently, went to the doctor and got the meds for absolutely no cost to me outside my monthly premium (which I reiterate is significantly less than provincial health care costs). No way anywhere in Canada can beat that these days.”
I am genuinely curious about what would happen if you were diagnosed with, for an example, stage 3 colon cancer.
In 2011 went through radiation, surgery and chemo.
The only extra cost was parking.
Could I get a similar deal in the US for less than my $100/month BC med premiums?
since last December the average Toronto house has gained 11.8%, or six times the inflation rate.
I don’t think our youth understand how crazy this is. Especially considering the stage of this RE cycle and the Canadian economy. I want to know where the $ is coming from.
I should really stop drinking, my posts were way better a few years ago.
I didn’t drink as much back then. Damn Hunter S, and Hemming way for conning me into this life style.
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2013/06/30/our-day/
“What number would force the BOC to raise interest rates to spare the dollar?”
BoC doesn’t have a mandate to maintain the CAD$’s value relative to other currencies. They do have a mandate to maintain domestic price stability, and with YoY CPI only running 1.4%, there is no need whatsoever to raise policy rates. If anything, such low CPI figures point to a necessity of cutting the policy rates further.
I suspect the challenge going forward will be to actually maintain CPI above zero, especially with the CAD$ likely to rise on account of falling interest rates as the initial shock and awe of capital outflows on account of the O&G sector collapse subside.
Garth
Howzabout a blog posting on how you plan to do your retirement, with real numbers, locations etc.
I am guessing it involves a warm country and lots of margaritas…..heck, you could even offshore your current operation n’est-ce pas?
DELETED (racist)
#76 crossbordershopper on 12.28.15 at 8:49 pm
with t2 at the helm it is the best time to be poor in Canada.
———
Not so sure about that. I’m solidly middle class, and a family man, and so far all Trudeau has done is throw money at me.
I’m happy to take it too. As for any tax/fee plans he’s got coming down the pipe – speaking for myself – it’ll net less than zero.
I’ve never put much effort into limiting my exposure to taxation. In fact, I’ve been downright complacent – just paying the bill and moving on without much thought given.
Well, 2016 is the year that is going to change, and I look forward to giving Trudeau (and Wynne) a hard lesson in laffercurvenomics 101…
Thanks for all that you do, I love this blog!
#86 Mark on 12.28.15 at 9:47 pm
“I suspect the challenge going forward will be to actually maintain CPI above zero, especially with the CAD$ likely to rise on account of falling interest rates as the initial shock and awe of capital outflows on account of the O&G sector collapse subside.”
I think the CDN$ will drop on account of falling interest rates as global demand for our currency will migrate to other countries…
#71 Mark on 12.27.15 at 8:18 pm
Stupid autocorrect. Really gotta figure out how to disable it.
————
If autocorrect worked on this blog we’d never see any of your posts.
Garth, please give us all a Christmas gift and ban this liberal racist ageist idiot.
Again? — Garth
America’s ‘children in the basement’ won’t be moving out any time soon
http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-share-of-18-34-year-olds-living-with-parents-to-remain-elevated-2015-12
Albertas heading for a repeat of the eighties, actually during the eighties I had far more time to hunt and fish.
http://www.edmontonsun.com/2015/12/23/hicks-on-biz-alberta-going-back-to-the-80s
This Edmonton couple took a 20% ($100,000) hit on their 500K property. They should consider themselves lucky.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/edmonton-homeowners-compete-for-buyers-in-marked-down-market-1.3377561
#29 Freedom First on 12.28.15 at 6:52 pm
Well said.
#87 Big Dipper on 12.28.15 at 9:29 pm
# 83, Smoking Man on 12.28.15 at 9:09 pm
“Prey for forgiveness, cause every good Degenerate capitalist I know; have, or are planning an exodus…”
——————————————–
Surely you’re a prime example of what degenerate capitalism leads to.
Don’t let the door hit you on the way out, and keep your plasma nozzle where it belongs – in your ear.
…..
Yeah, Yeah, bet it felt good getting that off your chest.
When all us degenerate capitalists are all gone, enjoy your watching daughters selling their ass’s for a loaf of bread like they do in greece now.
http://www.creb.com/ says Calgary prices down just 0.53%.
Does that even make sense?
Garth,
I was not here 18 months ago when oil was north of $100. We’re you calling for sub $50 oil then? A 50 % haircut is a lot, but after a 60% drop to sub $40 you are calling for another 50% drop from here. It’s bold, but you must know something the market doesn’t. US recession, Saudi adding a few million more barrels? Unlikely. What is likely is that the market has already priced in a slowing China, OPEC pumping to the max, fracking resilience, Iran addition, global warming, E l Nino, and of course the Paris climate agreement.
Plus, winter went on vacation with borrowed funds from the junk bond market.
I have no idea where oil is going, nor do you. But with a big glut, lower is likely. — Garth
In a strange throwback to when Garth was my age, the age-baiting is still on his side of the divide. Clearly there is some resentment for my generation’s lack of viable solutions to the problems his peers created.
#35 Bram on 12.28.15 at 7:17 pm
They’re working on a treadmill where they don’t get meaningful raises, are paid in worthless CAD, experiencing their cost of living rise, and about to enter a collapsing Canadian economy.
http://www.edmontonsun.com/2015/12/28/gunter-2015-they-year-the-ndp-demolished-the-alberta-advantage
We will be relocating both my business and a partnership to BC on Dec 30th, this was done on advice from our accountants.
#70 Practical_Logical
Get a life goof,weed head!
I run people like you every day, robots zombies , thanks I do make lots of money from ya:)
I have no idea where oil is going, nor do you. But with a big glut, lower is likely. — Garth
…………
Don’t matter, we wont be allowed to take it out of the ground.
I do know where the next shit load of millionaires are, anyone that buys long USDCAD contracts.
Garth, do you think the cnd $ will lose another 16% next year? More, less? What number would force the BOC to raise interest rates to spare the dollar?
Historically speaking the odds are against significant weakening of the CAD from this point forward.
#118 Smoking Man on 12.28.15 at 10:12 pm
I have no idea where oil is going, nor do you. But with a big glut, lower is likely. — Garth
…………
Don’t matter, we wont be allowed to take it out of the ground.
—
At this price the market prohibits it – unless you want to take it out of the ground at loss.
The net public debt increased $170 billion between 2006 and October, 2015. Not $250 billion. — Garth
I’m glad somebody caught Mark in another mistake. It never gets old.
@#63SWL1976
I agree with you that MJ as you put it, “opens up the third eye.” It’s nothing like drinking alcohol which has the opposite effect of closing down areas of the brain.
And I think you have an interesting point regarding governments worrying more about a collective mindset of pot smokers than drinkers. The drinkers can be easily corralled, not so easily, the ones who avoid over drinking, and prefer instead the introspective effects of smoking, vaping or ingesting marijuana.
If you were born in the early 70’s, and bought RE in your late 20’s, you got it all baby
Especially if in Vancouver or Toronto!
http://www.chpc.biz/uploads/9/7/9/5/9795010/4911154_orig.png?717
DELETED & BANNED
RIP Lemmy
http://www.calgarysun.com/2015/12/28/calgary-movers-swamped-as-growing-numbers-pack-up-and-leave-amidst-economic-downturn
I get no pleasures from this, but, it is reality. Alberta’s sunk with this Saskatchewan transplant (CCF) government in power.
No, they are not responsible for the price of Oil, but boy o boy with the 20% hike in corporative tax, the proposed carbon tax, increased personal taxes and still not done royalty review, they have destroyed all hope.
And don’t blame OPEC for depressed Oil prices, Americas churning out more Oil than ever, and now, exporting it. This is an epic battle between the USA and OPEC. I know whom I’m betting on to win this fight.
The conflict’s inevitable, but reminiscent of when 1960s-era hippies thought they heralded a new age of politics, tolerance and permissiveness. Then they grew up.
That last part is up for debate.
As much as I enjoy some generation wars and millennial baiting I’m not sure you can pin T2 getting elected on the millennials. I don’t think they actually vote.
Do we have stats on voter turn-out by demograph? I know plenty of boomers who voted A.B.C.
Careful about equating anti-Harper with pro-Trudeau. — Garth
#87 Panhead
At the places I’ve worked they can’t replace the skilled technicians,currently sitting on 6 open job offers at $36+ an hour for lowest job,with good pension and benefits.Most jobs have had to reopen the contracts to attract talent,usually at a minimum$5/hr bump above tech rate.
The biggest complaint of companies is that the young people they want to attract want
1-work life balance,they don’t want weekend/rotating shifts
2-they believe they shouldn’t take pay cuts to get training,they’re owed the full rate at the start
3-they shouldnt have to pay their dues,the crappy jobs are beneath them
4-no loyalty to company
The millennials I know that have gone into these fields are well compensated and rewarded and have great training and career advancement opportunities.Also the boomer techs want someone to pass their experience on to and have someone to mentor.
I do know where the next shit load of millionaires are, anyone that buys long USDCAD contracts.
SM you know I love you no homo but historically we’re close to max USD/CAD! God I hope you’re right…
#111 Smoking Man on 12.28.15 at 9:59 pm
“enjoy your watching daughters selling their ass’s for a loaf of bread”
———————————
Another degenerate capitalist fantasy. Stop proving my point!
Smoking Man #57
Rcmp probably has a file on me now.
Along with Mossad, Csis, CIA, FBI.
=======================
But not MI5? Hmmm interesting omission.
Folks, do we have a spy here, perhaps 007 himself?!
;-)
«Higher tax rates drive down consumption and investment which stifles growth and leads to lower tax revenue, which in turn exacerbates the debt problem. And so it goes in a vicious cycle that leads to credit downgrades, loss of investor confidence, job losses and a wake-up call that is both inevitable and painful.“
Joe Oliver: Ontario’s fiscal train wreck | Financial Post
(I voted for him, but he lost… sigh)
#123 Big Dipper on 12.28.15 at 10:29 pm
#111 Smoking Man on 12.28.15 at 9:59 pm
“enjoy your watching daughters selling their ass’s for a loaf of bread”
———————————
Another degenerate capitalist fantasy. Stop proving my point!
……
What drugs are you on, I want some.
How long you been around here spark plug, do you not realize when I respond to you, it’s a gift. a gift from a real 98% consences of dead smack on plazma nozal predictions.
A nectonight, idiot, hello I’m for another planet, superior, yay I got drinking problem. But it don’t change shit, English was not my first laungage.
Going to enjoy visiting this place down the road , your leafs will never wynne, and your daughter is mine.
Don’t worry, I’ll spend most of the time, trying to straighting her out.
I’ll tell her, screw your dad for his share of the bread, he was in on it, buy usdcad.
Probably be to late at that point, so I’ll just get drunk with her.
Perhaps she can help me get past chapter 6.
Its been a bitch for me.
#67 the Hammer on 12.28.15 at 8:26 pm
There a young man in Saskatoon who has for the first 19 years of his life been playing video games and smoking weed and living in assorted basements. His first job will be at Jiffy Lube. Eventually, he will replace your brakes…
—————————————————————
How is that weed smoker going to be more dangerous than the alcoholic loser that replaces my breaks today?
I also fail to understand how Video Game add to the drama of your scenario.
If the young tend do it and you don’t, then it must be bad, eh?
I love how the old conservatives are freaking out and crying like babies since they got kicked in the ass so hard in the election by T2.
The dinosaurs didn’t realize they were about to be extinct either.
Welcome to the tarpits……….
Edited for vulgarity. — Garth
#135
Me too. Crybabies is too tame a word for them.
#112 squidly77 Does that even make sense?
It's possible. Theoretically prices could rise too. If there was two sales on a given month, one $500,000 and there other $1 million, the average price would be $750,000.
In declining real estate markets the most important data is sales and dollar volume. If there's less sales, there's less bidders. If there's less volume, there's less profit and commissions. This is why liquidity is important and why average and benchmark prices are nothing but numbers until you execute the price.
Now the real problem: How is CMHC valuing property prices in Calgary with deteriorating liquidity? Can they sell a foreclosure in this market? (remember Alberta's foreclosure process is judicial, not contractual power of sales like Ontario, which means there is a court process that takes more time). How are banks valuing property values for NHA MBS overcollateralization and covered bonds? And even worse, all those presale condo investors and developers who speculated years out are now holding a piece paper that's declining in value, which by the way are financed by the banks!
These were the types of problems that exacerbated the 2008 crises in the US. Banks and insurers' models always assumed there would be liquidity in the market, until there wasn't. That's why all those mortgage backed securities priced at $0 because the banks didn't know what the current property values were worth, since sales were so low or even nil in some places. Not enough data!
But fear not.. more government stimulus is coming to Alberta, because hey, rewarding failure and bailing out speculators is the new patriotic thing to do for one's country.
DELETED (threat)
Going back to the topic of wealth and inheritance taxes, we can’t forget the importance of gift taxes too.
But quite frankly, presumably none of these would be introduced at low enough thresholds to matter to nearly everybody who spends time and effort gnashing their teeth in horror at the very concept. Your everyday “gifted” down payment probably doesn’t even come close.
Fundamentally, a couple things come into play.
One: No matter what, people with dynastic levels of wealth will still be able to assure their first 2-3 generations of descendants a fantastic education and the connections to live a more than comfortable life. Beyond that, who cares? You’re still dead, you never met them, and you probably wouldn’t like them if you did.
Two: The difference between inheriting fourteen million or eighteen million dollars is not material. If you blow through the former, you’ll blow through the latter a couple months/years later. Why shouldn’t society “get back” some of what such an estate was clearly able to take out? (Setting aside the entire ‘starve the beast’ philosophy, preferably.) If the next generation is capable of doing great things with it, they’ll still succeed with the remainder.
Mr. Turner,
I am a long time reader but seldom post. Your blog is a service to Canada. As a GenX who has worked in Canada and internationally in both in industry and the public sector I am saddened by the quality of partisan politics and many politicians in this country. We need you back in politics providing a strong intelligent Conservative voice. I realize this may be too much to ask and I know you have given your best. The country should not be left to the cynical, be they Harperites or the Liberal mafia.
Garth, the madness continues. A house converted into four condos: basement, 579,000; two on main floor, 700,000 each; top floor, 1,700,000. Not sure what is happening in Victoria but houses in this area are selling like they used to. For sale sign goes up. Sold sign follows shortly. Sure wish we had reliable figures instead of just anecdotes. But a converted house with units at these prices seems crazy. I knew something was happening because my daughter and her husband have a paid off house, beautiful house, double lot on the peninsula. Empty nest. They’d like to move into the city. They can’t get enough for their place to make the move.
#137 Aggregator on 12.28.15 at 11:11 pm
#112 squidly77 Does that even make sense?
It’s possible. Theoretically prices could rise too. If there was two sales on a given month, one $500,000 and there other $1 million, the average price would be $750,000.
Thanks for pointing out the obvious, no insult there, your post is bang on.
A lot of us boomers didn’t have it easy either like other boomers: we had to find any job to put food on the table; the line for a job were long; application after application; interview after interview; coarse after coarse, but with this said, I believe it is worse now for the youth.
#58 45north gave some ideas but I think the leaders have forgotten about some of us Canadians (and not all can have a mom and dad to help out, government job, etc.). We are out on the sideline looking in at the show. Not all can have Boxing Day off and get paid. As #63SW1976 said “This is where we are lost.”
Our leaders can and do make rules, even change them to their liking so why not make the entrepreneur more pleasing with incentives and write-offs. A few ideas: no gst (guillotine spirit tax) for them, their mortgage can be claimed on income tax, instead of the CRA breathing down their backs allow them to guide them to flourish, you have to be Canadian to apply.
Wonder how the TPP is going? How can ordinary people compete with Canadian unions, big stores, etc. and compete with other countries that don’t? We can’t!!!
Where I work theres a fellow that’s stuck in a precarious under water situation, he owes more money than his property is mortgaged for (not bought for), this person is a close friend of both mine and my wife’s.
So he was going to try and sell, then cut and run, not uncommon. here lyes the problem, he has attempted to list the home using a realtor, problem is, the realtor wants his commision up front as the bank has the first pull on the sale price.
The realtor wanted $30,000 up front just to list his $700,000 home, of course my aquaintance has zero chance of forwarding $30 grand when he’s already cash strapped, so no listing which will result in no sale, his words, I’ll stop making mortgage payments and bank the money instead and in 5 months the bank will begin to foreclose, before that I’ll relocate to southern Ontario and rent a place before my credit rating takes a hit.
Thats actually rational and wise planning.
Same exodus out here. Our degenerate capitalist coffee club lost 2 this year. Of course boomers selling west side R/E not so hard life decision. The ones left are moving into short term mortgages, money markets, offshore, that kinda stuff. All talk now is how to avoid being the
“chump” as the “new guard” sets the “new rules”. Nobody is building, expanding. Some of us still making payroll; I mean were not all completely bloodless to cut & run, leaving old employees & family out in the cold. But were thinning the ranks fairly ruthlessly.
As far as all the degenerate capitalist’s gone; & watching the daughters. I was at that place once. Flew into Bangok late 76. Vietnam,Cambodia, Laos had fallen.The top floor of my hotel was full of Aussie & NZ mercenaries on R&R from mopping up remnants of the old Malaysian communist party. We were surrounded except for Burma, There was probably 200,000 beautiful daughters who had somehow made it out of their workers paradise to a degenerate capitalist last stand. A lot of them spoke english & french. They were compromised. They had been sleeping with the enemy. But the degenerate capitalists had some mercy: they didn’t put a bullet in the back of their head like they’d get back home.
#134 BG
Ah…the literacy thing. Perhaps I can help. “breaks” should be “brakes”. “Video game” should be “video games” The use of the word “drama” is probably a little off. Reconsider word choice.
I know many great young people. Passionate, hard working, curious, inspiring. Even to me. And I have been places and seen things that you don’t want to.
Regardless of age, if you spend your time playing video games and smoking weed, you will probably compromise your life. If you abuse alcohol, the results can be the same. In the end, it is your choice. Just don’t expect the world to accommodate you. It won’t.
Canada is a big, soft bubble, in which there are many soft, naive, spoiled people. We are unproductive enough as is.
Don’t wear sweat pants in public. Wear a belt. Tuck your shirt in and answer your boss with “yes sir” and “no sir” Own your mistakes. And…get a library card. Work and hope, let your dreams tie your work to your play. Good luck with the basement and weed thing.
Was that a Borg reference … Yes, yes it was.
#128 Millmech on 12.28.15 at 10:28 pm
#87 Panhead
At the places I’ve worked they can’t replace the skilled technicians,currently sitting on 6 open job offers at $36+ an hour for lowest job,with good pension and benefits.
Glad to hear the jobs are available to be taken in your industry… but surely wasn’t happening by my former employer … a railroad. Could train a new employee fairly quickly to operate the trains but try and find a qualified loco mechanic … very specific …they just aren’t there. Takes years of experience to be good. All the older ones (myself included) retired. The place was run so lean that there was never any time to train anyone either. Sooner or later this will affect safety, bound to.
I thought you might need a laugh Garth . Christy Clark . You know the gal (Stevie lite ) . She’s telling us that B.C. Is an island of stability in a world … Well you know how it’s going down south and the rest of the world . She must be the Queen of delusion . B.c. Is the province that has the highest child poverty rate in the country Somebody should slap our government right in the chops . You just can’t make this stuff up.
Here’s a Sunday ride for you Garth.
http://www.msn.com/en-ca/autos/enthusiasts/this-detroit-diesel-v8-trike-laughs-at-your-puny-harley-davidson/ar-BBnNcor?ocid=spartandhp
A Detroit Diesel 8V-71 is 318 horse power. Not as cool looking as a Harley but that would get the job done with even more noise.
#96 The real Kip on 12.28.15 at 9:36 pm
“Don’t what all the whining is about, I’m coming off an excellent year and 2016 looks great too. My GTA house is up and I have $0 invested in stocks, bonds, ETF’s and other such bullshit.”
Such an ignorant comment. I hope you got a big pay increase too to cover the increase in property taxes you’ll be paying.
Can they sell a foreclosure in this market?
I can tell you that a friend of mine going through a divorce hasn’t made a payment in Airdrie on a brand new house he bought with CMHC-backed 95% financing 2 years ago in well over 8 months, and aside from a few nastygrams by registered mail, there’s been no further action nor even an eviction date. The house is listed with a Realtor for the value of the loan (ie: he’s not willing to accept a loss greater than that of his downpayment), and while there were some tire kickers earlier in the year, there’s been no lookers in months. He’s even moved back in (and set up a small swimming pool in the living room!) since it was pointless paying rent when it was obvious the bank wasn’t going to take “his” house away.
http://www.creb.com/ says Calgary prices down just 0.53%.
Does that even make sense?
From what I’ve heard, the low end is absolutely locked solid (ie: very little to no liquidity). So if only the high end is transacting, albeit at significantly reduced prices (hearing of deals at 20-30% off at this point in the mid range stuff, and that’s just the stuff that’s actually transacting), the overall transactional averages can remain relatively constant with the shift in the sales mix explaining everything.
#134 BG I forgot…Sorry.
In your last sentence, you said, “if the young tend do it…” I think you meant to say, “if the young tend to do it…”
As well, if your boss is a woman, respond to her as she prefers. “Yes Ma’am” is no longer universally correct.
And wear the brim of your hat forward lest people think you have lost the directions or worse, are unable to read. That can be revealed by writing as well. It carries a terrible stigma.
For something with an economic angle, your personal reading list should include, ‘Jude the Obscure’. For fun, Cormac McCarthy’s, ‘The Crossing’. All the best.
The Millennials don’t know how to live:
– Low debt = rent a basement apartment.
– Low stress = get a skilled trades job, don’t worry about layoffs.
– Excitement = get a motorcycle, visit rock concerts every month, preferably in different cities, using that motorcycle to get to them.
– Enjoyment = Have enough free time to do what you want, when you want, and that means NOT having to work 24/7 just to pay off some stupid house debt.
NOW THAT IS LIVING !
I hope they didn’t pay too much for it.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/house-collapse-1.3382205
Dear Mr. Justin Trudeau:
Congratulations on your recent victory. I wish you all the best as Canada’s new Prime Minister. As you know, the Canadian economy is a mess. Here are my ideas on how to get things back on track:
1. Real estate in most of the major cities is over-valued and many people cannot afford to buy. At the same time, many wealthy investors or speculators own multiple houses, condos, cottages, land. Many of these properties sit empty while hard working Canadians have trouble finding anything affordable to buy or to rent. Solution: change the tax system to penalize real estate speculators. This could involve increasing taxes, increasing interest rates. Bill Morneau can figure it out.
2. Canada has a very generous immigration policy, Canada’s population is growing, Canada is a huge country with lots of land. Unfortunately, the wealthiest speculators have locked up large portions of land and by installing a few herd of cattle, claim the agricultural subsidy and therefore pay a disproportionately low tax rate. Solution: remove the subsidy for so-called cattle ranchers on large tracts of land. Charge a federal surtax on large tracts of land. (Prairie grain farmers should be exempt of course). The goal is to force owners of 100 acres or more to subdivide and sell their land and make it available to the average Canadian. This would create an economic boom by creating jobs for road builders, hydro crews, landscapers, surveyors, building contractors, etc. This would also give Canadians what is there birthright – the right to buy a small piece of land outside the crowded cities to build a house, cottage, cabin, business, farm or whatever. Yes, they can have cattle but don’t give them a huge tax break because of it.
3. Work with the provinces and federal government to sell off much more crown land. The provinces and federal govt are sitting on vast tracts of crown land that is unused. When small amounts are sold off, they sell for millions of dollars to speculators and developers who subdivide and sell at outrageous prices/profits to average Canadians. Having a new tax regime on large land ownership would level the playing field. It would help solve the overcrowding that currently exists in cities and suburbs.
4. Figure out a way to penalize large corporations who outsource their jobs to 3rd world countries. For example, Canada’s big banks outsourced their IT and other services to India and Pakistan. TFWs also take jobs from Canadians. Telus outsourced their customer support to the Phillipines. These large corps have a MONOPOLY and should be forced to hire Canadians.
5. Time to kick Saudi Arabia’s ass. Saudi Arabia has the worst record in the world on human rights, women’s rights, climate change/global warming, etc. They are now in the process of wrecking our oil industry and economy. Time to have trade sanctions against Saudi Arabia. They are a corrupt, ruthless regime who use capital punishment for relatively minor crimes. Their tactics are similar to ISIS. Time to get tough with the Saudis with trade sanctions, tariffs, banning oil imports from them.
At #98: Boonerater, you said, “I am genuinely curious about what would happen if you were diagnosed with, for an example, stage 3 colon cancer.
In 2011 went through radiation, surgery and chemo.
The only extra cost was parking.
Could I get a similar deal in the US for less than my $100/month BC med premiums?”
Well, yes. You can absolutely get a similar deal in the U.S. It’s called staying ALIVE with significantly more advanced healthcare treatment and research. So, ask yourself is it about the outcome of your condition, or is it *really* about paying less than $100/month to say you have some crappy baseline coverage? Most plans in the U.S. are well under $250/month for full coverage, a ridiculously lower cost than what Canadians currently pay in taxes to gain the so-called “free” sub-standard care. This is precisely why most of the Canadian high-ranking politicians travel to the U.S. for their care when gaining cancer treatments, life-saving emergency surgeries, etc. (of course, they would rarely, if ever, be so transparent as to report it to their Canadian supporters). It is a sad state of affairs.
Why in the hell would you EVER accept waiting more than a day to receive relief or care if your shoulder was in extreme pain?? Seriously. WTF!?!?! In Canada, you WAIT. Period. And anyone who says differently is full of shit. In the U.S., you get access immediately, EVEN IF YOU HAVE NO INSURANCE OR CANNOT PAY. That is the LAW. People in Canada seem to conveniently overlook this little piece of information. Ignorance at it’s best.
Thanks for the great year Garth! I read your blog every day and pass it on to everyone who will listen! Looking forward to 2016!
I was at a place once where degenerate capitalists had been driven out & beautiful daughters gathered. Bangok late 76. Vietnam,Laos & Cambodia had all just fallen. the top floor of my hotel was full of Aussie mercenaries on R&R from mopping up remnants of the old communist party of Malaya hiding along the Thai border.We were surrounded except for Burma to the north. The only Yanks were a few black ex GI’s running small coffee & eating joints. No one to the rescue if the NVR or heaven forbid the Khymer Rouge or Pathet Lao came pouring over the border.
By whatever means thousands of daughters had escaped their workers paradise for the degenerate capitalists last outpost. A lot spoke english or french. They were compromised. They had slept with the enemy.Nevertheless degenerate capitalists had some mercy. They didn’t put a bullet in the back of their heads like they surely would have got back home.
Thanks for the website Garth. Due to your dire warnings I just locked the mortgage in for another 5y at 2.74. Hope to weather the storm and feeling like I made the right choice. Apparently to you old geezers sub 3% is a steal.
U.S. jobs are booming and tech is where it’s at.
http://fortune.com/2015/12/16/job-market-hiring-workers/
135 Keith in Calgary on 12.28.15 at 10:56 pm
I love how the old conservatives are freaking out and crying like babies since they got kicked in the ass so hard in the election by T2.
The dinosaurs didn’t realize they were about to be extinct either.
Welcome to the tarpits……….
Edited for vulgarity. — Garth
____________________________________________
Weren’t you taking all your money and moving to that powerhouse called Brazil?
Does any find it curious timing that just after Obama kills the XL Pipeline that the US says it’s OK to export crude from the US ?Does this not enforce the idea that the Keystone kill shot was just about trade, wrapped in an environmental cloth. I believe the Lib Arts voting Liberals actually believe it was.
squidly#77
Thanks for posting the various press articles on some of the beginning consequences of the Great Alberta Unwind that appears to be just getting started. I think all are truly believable and are just the tip of the iceberg of some of the things going on.
Was with an old oilpatch operator/ trucker friend some during the holidays and he was telling me of so much equipment and oilfield assets including high priced items changing hands for literally pennies on the dollar, lots going for less than a dime on the dollar. Some stuff even being cut up and scrapped as literally nobody wants some of the older or more unique stuff when so much good stuff is available for cheap.
I’ve been through this rodeo a couple of times already so nothing surprises me any more.
I think between the NDP and the Federal Libs on top of World conditions, this will be a real barn burner in spades and at least from an oilpatch point of view could be much worse over time than the Trudeau NEP of the early ’80’s.
A lot in the oilpatch including some of the big oil producers must about feel like the proverbial deer standing in the headlights of the oncoming cars.
They have already been punked and are about to get really punked like they likely won’t believe.
As for Calgary office space, the ” Guru’s ” are predicting vacancy to top out at something like 15% to 17% by the fall of 2016. In reality i think they will be lucky if it stops at 33% or so even with much lower rental rates prevailing right now.
Good for you for reorganizing your affairs before year end and great luck to you ……..
Well guess I was wrong, posted on a few forums that I didn’t agree rates will stay low forever.
Good thing people don’t come to me for predictions eh
CRISPR-eSPCas9
This is a huge technological advance. The Holy Grail of genetics.
Must read. It promises in a decade of two that:
1) Food will be plentiful (until we overpopulate again).
2) Genetically inherited diseases will be eradicated.
3) Edited babies with ‘unpleasant’ genes deleted. (in vitro)
Damn! Exciting stuff. Should have continued in the genetics field instead of mindlessly buying and selling YVR RE and shorting the Loonie.
@LeoTrollstoy
IMO, I’m sticking to my prediction of a low for the dollar at 66.6 cents USD. Then it will languish in the range for a while.
Poloz won’t allow it to sink further because it screws the retirees and pension funds irreparably…The Liberals won’t allow it. (And save that ‘BOC isn’t influenced by political insiders ‘ blah blah blah).
crossbordershopper, you sound like you live some where like Cornwall?? My mother and her husband are living the life you describe. The only asset they have is a small 800 sq ft house; which is paid for. They are poor; <$20k a year to live on. Not my idea of fun.
#167 TRT
How will Poloz prevent the dollar from sinking lowere than your very precise 66.6 cents?
Smoking man is on a spot on roll, #79 is correct in all he says know this from personal experience with ON quactors who got their certificates in a ‘Cracker Jack’ box, #11 and 15 also get it.
To help keep your right to vote so you don’t have taxation without representation, please sigh the petition here http://you.leadnow.ca/petitions/restore-expasts-right-to-vote-in-canadian-elections
BTW I drive a Kia :)
More victims in the oil downturn in Calgary
http://trib.al/cXN20Ke
Please tell us more, Garth.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/fannie-and-freddie-give-birth-to-new-mortgage-bond-1451385003?ncid=newsltushpmg00000003
If you think millennials are bad.
Wait till the next generation finds this blog.
Gartho will need to make a safe room with milk and cookies.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/12022041/How-political-correctness-rules-in-Americas-student-safe-spaces.html
@#103 & 156 BC Land Barons and BC Guy ( the same person?)
One gets banned for “whatever” and the other reverts to his socialist utopia of “taking land from the rich and giving it all to the poor……almost as delusional as “Star Wars” (unless you’re talking about Nicki Minaj and J-Lo)
Yo! BC Guy. How long have you been waiting to buy? 8 and a half months????? When its 24 months lift your head outta the sand and look around. Prices will be dropping……..Then you can buy your castle in the sky.
But dont make it too nice or jealous people( like you are right now) will demand the govt expropriate it….
Karma’s a bee-yatch.
#157 The American
s in the U.S. are well under $250/month for full coverage, a ridiculously lower cost than what Canadians currently pay in taxes to gain the so-called “free” sub-standard care. This is precisely why most of the Canadian high-ranking politicians travel to the U.S. for their care when gaining cancer treatments, life-saving emergency surgeries, etc. (of course, they would rarely, if ever, be so transparent as to report it to their Canadian supporters). It is a sad state of affairs.
Why in the hell would you EVER accept waiting more than a day to receive relief or care if your shoulder was in extreme pain?? Seriously. WTF!?!?! In Canada, you WAIT. Period.
————————-
Well, I beg to differ. I pay ~$US675 per month for each of my employees for a very middling insurance plan. Best deal available. Families not included. My employees wait between two weeks and a few months for any scheduled procedure.
Christopher Mewhort, EA
@#167TRT
66.6 canuck buck….I’m thinking 65 cents by summer and then BOOM!
T2 will be forced to raise rates whether he thinks its political suicide or not. Then again. The next election isnt until 2019 so he’s got lots of time for the dope smokers to forget who bent them over a barrel……
#154 Freeman
Best way to go,lots of freedom,cash for investing etc is plentiful,nest egg growing,no worries about house issues.I don’t think I would ever buy an anchor of a house again.
RIP Lemmy
Many families in Surrey/Delta (yvr burbs) have gone all in on real estate many of which are buried upto their eye balls in mortgage debt. They are all very confident that prices will continue rising to the moon. What makes it even more concerning is most of them are directly employed in the housing sector (construction, mortgage brokers, realtors, builders ect). Most in this area have bought the hype that the only way to get rich is to buy houses, if there is ever a downturn in the yvr market somebody gonna get a hurt real bad.
#161…Leo Trollstoy…your bias is obvious! Nowhere does the article speak to overall US employment and a booming economy…it merely speaks to what organizations need to do to attract milenials to the I/T sector?
Just as a counter point:
Did you see the USA Today headline yesterday?
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2015/12/28/debt-distress-level-recession/77882786/
Doesn’t sound like the conditions for a booming economy? And how do you respond to the fact that the US GDP is struggling at 2%?
It’s booming….right!
US growth is 200% that of Canadian expansion. Enough to worry about here, Twinkie. — Garth
“Let the hate flow through you….”
Ah, how I felt when Harper ran the show. Told myself to lighten up before I blew a gasket.
Garth,
How would you respond to Stephen Roach, a highly respected Economist and Senior Lecturer at Yale who is suggesting that the path outlined by the Fed is reminiscent to 2004 – 2006 which precipitated the 2008 Financial crisis?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-gradualism-sets-us-up-for-another-financial-crisis-2015-12-28
That’s funny. Does he have tenure? — Garth
“I have no idea where oil is going, nor do you. But with a big glut, lower is likely. — Garth”
Quite right, we only know where it has been, usually a lot higher and rarely lower (especially in real terms).
I am sure you have heard the saying in commodities; that the cure for low prices is low prices.
Although oil could drop substantially further, if it is true that we do not know its future price, we can see from its past price that it most certainly is likely to be higher.
Canada’s future is bright. If we cannot sell oil and foreiners tire of our real estate, we can try water, and if not water, the “hot one” can help sell air:
http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/selling-bottled-lake-louise-air-started-as-a-joke-but-theres-actually-a-lot-of-demand
“If autocorrect worked on this blog we’d never see any of your posts.
Garth, please give us all a Christmas gift and ban this liberal racist ageist idiot.
“
Wow, pretty rich, calling me an idiot, a liberal, or a racist. None of which are true (if you type my real name into your favourite search engine, you’ll actually find a few pictures of me and Harper online!). But its no surprise that you just make things up as you go, 180 degrees from the truth. Typical trait of someone on the losing end of an argument and too immature to admit such.
The realtor wanted $30,000 up front just to list his $700,000 home, of course my aquaintance has zero chance of forwarding $30 grand when he’s already cash strapped, so no listing which will result in no sale, his words, I’ll stop making mortgage payments and bank the money instead and in 5 months the bank will begin to foreclose, before that I’ll relocate to southern Ontario and rent a place before my credit rating takes a hit.
Thats actually rational and wise planning.
I think he left out the part about the bank/CMHC pursuing a judgement against him, and the likely necessity of declaring personal bankruptcy in order to clear the judgement when they ultimately hit him for all the costs associated with liquidating the property.
He’s looking at 2 years in bankruptcy (of which, most of his earnings in excess of a paltry amount will go towards “the Estate”). Another 7 years or so thereafter with an officially blotted credit record. And a lifetime of a diminished reputation on account of having previously declared bankruptcy and having such fact in various industry databases, even if it disappears from his “credit record”.
Much better, IMHO, for him to sit down with the bank and deal with the whole question of retaining a Realtor (and probably not the imbecile out of touch Realtor who demanded $30k up-front) to effect the listing. In the USA, this process is called a “short sale”. Not sure if the same terminology is used in Canada, but it basically is very similar and preserves the maximum amount of value for everyone involved. If the deficiency isn’t too significant, bankruptcy probably can be avoided as well.
DELETED
US home prices rise 5.2% in October: S&P/Case-Shiller
San Francisco, Denver and Portland, Oregon, showed the highest year-over-year gains, with all three showing home values in October 10.9 percent higher than one year ago.(west coast, all the weed states- coincidence?)
From May 2004 to July 2007, the Fed funds rate moved up from 1.0 percent to 5.25 percent; over the same period, the mortgage rate rose from about 6 percent to 6.75 percent during a sustained tightening effort by the Federal Reserve.
The latest economic projections published by the Fed following the recent rate increase suggest that the Fed funds rate will be around 2.6 percent in September 2017 compared to a current rate of about 0.5 percent.” wrote Blitzer. “These data suggest that potential home buyers need not fear runaway mortgage interest rates.”
As of October, 2015, home prices in the nation’s top 20 cities are back to their winter 2007 levels
Peter Pan was the first millennial.
still stuck in NS for a few more days – all i can say about the east coast is it sucks goat balls beyond belief. once again confirming the decision to g.t.f.out the minute i could at the age of 18.
————————————–
funny the only ppl back here who have tried vancouver and came back saying bc is not all that great are the ones who failed miserably economically out west.
#124 Madelle Francine on 12.28.15 at 10:20 pm
DELETED & BANNED
—————————–
wow. impressive. first and last post must have been a whopper!
That poster has been here before, and banned before. He adopts multiple names. The GreaterFool’s undercover HomeBlog Security Dept. was not, however, rused. — Garth
as an gen x its kinda fun to be sitting on the fence and watching the booms vs mils tossing crap back and forth.
most mills are becoming soft, weak and useless it seems. a few are not afraid of work.
#10: “While your critiques may be valid, you offer nothing in the way of your ideas on how to get the Canadian economy going again. In fact, I have never seen you write any positive thoughts on what it takes to make Canada work again. This means you don’t know either, correct?”
***********************
While Garth does have many solutions — ideas he shares here on his blog every day which could be implemented at any time — it’s not his responsibility to ‘save the world’ or Canada. Passing the buck won’t work, sorry!
#23: “Saving money is more difficult for millenneals than in the past but the principles have not changed.”
********************
Millennials are not hard done by. Every generation has had its challenges. Trick, as you say, is for all of us to budget and stay within our means. Problem is, many don’t. They want it all…and they want it now.
BC guy
You might contemplate the difference between earnestness and seriousness. I like this definition,
“earnestness is stupidity that has gone to college”.
Courtesy of PJ O’Rourke.
You seem to be fixated on liberating crown land. Careful you don’t end up in a world designed by tassel-loafered, gel-haired, Donald Trump wannabes…a world like Saskabush, say. Rural Saskatchistan has lots of room though. You’ll have to boil your water and breath Round Up from May to September, but lots are relatively cheap. The range of employable skills is rather narrow…especially for Rococo socialists. Good luck with the Revolution.
#37: “Yeah, Boomers may end up paying for their own health care when the cookie jar runs dry.
………………………………………………………………………
You better hope not because the cookie jar won’t be full and moist any more.”
******************
We could stop abusing the system? I see people come into Emergency with scraped knees, cut fingers…and these visits cost the BC health system $286 per visit. That can be just the beginning of costs for that visit. Hospitals will not/cannot turn anyone away. So we could start using our heads….or is that asking too much?
173 Mark on 12.29.15 at 9:10 am
You missed the point, this man is going to go bankrupt.
There’s no saving the situation and there’s no working with the bank. This is not the USA.
He and his family will have to deal with the consequences for the choices they made.
You know what Mark, you like to talk down to people as if you have some sort of superior moral authority which you don’t, this is why people find you offensive.
I do find your comments at times to be racist, you are a very offensive blogger that most would just wish would go away. In other words, move on and get a life.
#146 the Hammer on 12.28.15 at 11:46 pm
#134 BG
Ah…the literacy thing. Perhaps I can help. “breaks” should be “brakes”. “Video game” should be “video games” The use of the word “drama” is probably a little off. Reconsider word choice.
I know many great young people. Passionate, hard working, curious, inspiring. Even to me. And I have been places and seen things that you don’t want to.
Regardless of age, if you spend your time playing video games and smoking weed, you will probably compromise your life. If you abuse alcohol, the results can be the same. In the end, it is your choice. Just don’t expect the world to accommodate you. It won’t.
Canada is a big, soft bubble, in which there are many soft, naive, spoiled people. We are unproductive enough as is.
Don’t wear sweat pants in public. Wear a belt. Tuck your shirt in and answer your boss with “yes sir” and “no sir” Own your mistakes. And…get a library card. Work and hope, let your dreams tie your work to your play. Good luck with the basement and weed thing.
===
Reminds me of someone wise, who said:
For a hammer everything is a nail…
““Saving money is more difficult for millenneals than in the past but the principles have not changed.””
Maybe the defining moment of Millennials when it comes to finances won’t be so much how much cash they have ‘saved’, but rather, how much they don’t owe.
After all, the boomers significantly came of age at a time when interest rates were falling, and ‘savings’ were richly rewarded with returns on account of the falling rates. House prices skyrocketed far greater than historically implied. It was an era where people got ahead by being heavily in debt to buy appreciating assets, rather than not being in debt and owning depreciating assets.
In a deflationary era, everything is basically flipped around backwards. Assets and ‘savings’ don’t return a lot (in fact, such undergoes significant multiple compression). But debt costs a lot. Not on account of official “policy” rates being high, but rather, because of the significant risk premia that lenders must collect to cover off a significant quantum of debt that goes bad on account of deflation.
Hence, you get some pretty weird and counter-intuitive things happening. Like, for instance, newborns, with no debt and a runway of lifetime earnings ahead of them, being far more credit-worthy than many middle-aged people with significant debt and shrinking assets.
#161…Leo Trollstoy…your bias is obvious! Nowhere does the article speak to overall US employment and a booming economy…it merely speaks to what organizations need to do to attract milenials to the I/T sector?
Anyone who has actually spent time in the IT industry (as I have) knows that any claims of labour shortages are largely bogus and nonsensical — intended only to curry favour amongst the public and the politicians for more foreign worker visas (TFW in Canada, H-1B in the USA).
Even fairly advanced IT jobs are getting in excess of 100 applications from qualified individuals. Not a sign of a shortage, but rather, of a severe glut of qualified personnel.
#51: “See how easy it is to jump to conclusions. The guy owns a Harley and a Hummer…..do you really want to know what he does on his day Off.
**********************
I thought the question was innocent enuf! LOL
Well, seeing as the rich are the ones with the money, it only makes sense that they should’ve taxed (heavily in my opinion).. They (the rich) should be happy to pay the tax, considering the financial position they are in and especially because they have more than likely avoided taxes (that is probably how they became rich in the first place)….
People get rich by avoiding tax? Sometimes this blog is breathtaking… — Garth
#190 Daisy Mae on 12.29.15 at 10:07 am
#10: “While your critiques may be valid, you offer nothing in the way of your ideas on how to get the Canadian economy going again. In fact, I have never seen you write any positive thoughts on what it takes to make Canada work again. This means you don’t know either, correct?”
***********************
While Garth does have many solutions — ideas he shares here on his blog every day which could be implemented at any time — it’s not his responsibility to ‘save the world’ or Canada. Passing the buck won’t work, sorry!
==
Compared to other “personal finance blogs”, Garth’s articles go beyond “ideas he shares here on his blog every day which could be implemented at any time” to the territory of what he thinks is screwing up Canada.
Maybe even a fan like you, can see that.
#54: “If you want to feel true terror, check out the rates at your local assisted living or nursing home (if you have one, that is).”
********************
OAS/CPP pay for some of costs. Subsidies are available for a few. Residents may have to supplement that with accumulated assets depending on the facility they chose.
….now Garth, you must admit, an inheritance tax would be political suicide. I think the liberals proved that the last time they were kicking it around.
#146 the Hammer on 12.28.15 at 11:46 pm
#134 BG
Ah…the literacy thing. Perhaps I can help. “breaks” should be “brakes”. “Video game” should be “video games” The use of the word “drama” is probably a little off. Reconsider word choice.
—————————————————————-
Thank you for the free lesson. English is technically my third language.
If you spend your time doing something unproductive, you’re not going anywhere. This is not new.
Playing “Video Games and smoking weed” is the new “Watching TV and Drinking Beer”.
You originally made it sound like screwing one’s life with overdose of futile activities was something invented by Millennials.
Flatland — A “Good Enough” Theory Of Human Cognition
http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2013/07/flatland-a-good-enough-theory-of-human-cognition.html
(don’t miss the video at the end).
Looks like CBD in australia exposed the empty apartments owned by foreigners jacking up RE to insane levels. Wish they did same for Canada:
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/41159
I remember speaking with Vancouverite saying same thing about skyline being dark cause no one lives there!
#157 THE AMERICAN
I am not sure where YOU are quoting those Health Insurance figures.
As a 64 year old retirees, we do NOT yet qualify for Medicare.
My former employers’ generous program allows me to buy into the cafeteria style offerings they have for current employees- so long as I pay my cost-share of 25% with after tax dollars. (don’t ask)…
Currently, my SHARE for a self +1 decent plan is $482.17
per month. So, take MY share multiply by four and that is the “market price” for a Blue Cross Blue Shield national fee for service plan.
Oh, don’t forget you have things like your individual annual deductibles, and catastrophic limits, too.
Yes, there some dental benefits (limited), and eye Exam and care and it DOES cover prescription drugs.
By 2016 I will qualify for medicare, then this plan becomes ‘supplemental’ but then we ADD the current cost of medicare to my household expenses.
So, $482.17 pus whatever medicare will be, say $125.00 per person in 2017 -a guess. Then 2 65 year olds get full coverage for around $732.17 A MONTH!!!!!
If anybody American, or Canadian thinks they have a better way, tell my legislators about it. This is just MY American reality for 2016, and projected costs for 2017.
RB
#203 Godth on 12.29.15 at 11:06 am
Flatland — A “Good Enough” Theory Of Human Cognition
http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2013/07/flatland-a-good-enough-theory-of-human-cognition.html
(don’t miss the video at the end).
—————
That dude is even more pumped up than you!
http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2015/12/2015-sucked-but-2016-will-be-worse.html
Thanks Garth, but I’m OK – I have Star Wars: … and Adelle.
#193 Daisy Mae on 12.29.15 at 10:36 am
#37: “Yeah, Boomers may end up paying for their own health care when the cookie jar runs dry.
………………………………………………………………………
You better hope not because the cookie jar won’t be full and moist any more.”
******************
We could stop abusing the system? I see people come into Emergency with scraped knees, cut fingers…and these visits cost the BC health system $286 per visit. That can be just the beginning of costs for that visit. Hospitals will not/cannot turn anyone away. So we could start using our heads….or is that asking too much?
———————————————————-
There should be a minimum charge $25 for a Doctor’s office visit and $50 for emergency room.
Let the hate begin!
#183 Mark on 12.29.15 at 9:10 am
Is the one on the right suppose to be Harper?
https://sites.google.com/site/suckyreligion/_/rsrc/1259100143952/gay_duo.jpg
At #175: Christopher Mewhort, EA, wow, that’s the biggest crock of bullshit I’ve read in the past week. Nice try, lil’ guy. If there were any merit of truth to your post, you’d already be purchasing through a different insurance brokerage. Additionally, the procedure may take a couple weeks to month to schedule out, but if someone is in pain with a non-life threatening ailment (like a bad shoulder), he/she can still be into his/her doctor within a day to at least obtain pain management. BTW, I know what it costs to insure employees… Why? Because I’m the goddamn treasurer for a multi-billion dollar corporation, as well as the treasurer for a non-affiliated Board that serves only 14 employees. Where the hell do you all come up with this bullshit?
#125 JSS on 12.28.15 at 10:20 pm
RIP Lemmy
————-
Amen.
And even though most millennials probably don’t know who he was, let’s play “eat the Rich” one more time – just for them.
Tax is a wealth reducer.
Tax reduction will assist to stimulate the economy, however the amount of debt held by individuals does not help to stimulate anything.
Interest rates have no choice but increase now with the US leading the way. those with heavy debt load will be screwed.
All countries and all levels of government have no choice but increase tax. Carbon tax is another example of an additional tax. Increase in tax is guaranteed. Weak Canadian dollar is a killer too.
the wealthy have many choices to avoid tax whereas the working stiff has no choice, and to make matters worse the working stiff has tax deducted off the paycheque.
The role of a polietician is to communicate confidence, whereas harpos policies lost ALL trust and confidence in the political voice. Many Canadians will be screwed. the savers best be aware of the bail-in law.
The only saviour to the millennials is a heavy load of debt, as long as they vote in all elections, they can enjoy living today and the government policies will protect them.
According to this BNN article, Toronto condo prices are expected to increase 30 to 40 percent in the next few years!!
http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/12/3/Toronto-condo-prices-could-soar-40-predicts-developer.aspx
Believe it or not??
I have been reading this blog for the last several years and held off buying a condo/home (heeding Garth’s advice), while so many of my peers have built equity and wealth in real estate.
What is a girl to do now??!
Why would you buy something you can rent for half the price? — Garth
“It seems the world is headed toward negative real interest rates on a global scale. This is toxic. Interest rates are used to price risk, and so in the current environment, the risk-pricing mechanism is broken.”
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/12/big-short-genius-says-another-crisis-is-coming.html
#206 Steeerage Bilge on 12.29.15 at 11:43 am
His brain isn’t malfunctioning.
http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2011/10/the-optimists-brain.html
For anyone who hasn’t already seen The Big Short, I recommend watching it. Basically, it is precisely why Cohodes is shorting the Canadian RE market. Plus, one of the characters is a Canadian (which I know means so much to you all as you can’t help pointing out when a Canadian is a part of anything interesting).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hG4X5iTK8M
#216….JamesA:
I am surprised that Garth let your post be published..as he usually bans anything that could be perceived to be negative towards his personal bias.
However, do not expect a reasonable response as anything logical Garth just dismisses. Your post is similar to #181, where the USA Today reported on the risk being perceived in the Corporate bond market, which is suggesting that the headwinds that US companies will be facing due to the Fed path may result in reduced investment etc. The fact that GDP is at 2% and economic risks are being identified by the financial markets does not bode well for the short term economic success of the US. I think that Garth would smugly suggest that this will not end well.
I’d actually suggest that doomsters and America-haters have peppered this blog with identical fearmongering for the past five years, during which the US economy has steadily recovered, the unemployment rate has halved and the country has weaned off stimulus, while reaping the benefits of the commodity bust which now imperils Canada. There are lots of things for you pantywaists to worry about. The US isn’t one of them. — Garth
#213 Briana on 12.29.15 at 12:23 pm
According to this BNN article, Toronto condo prices are expected to increase 30 to 40 percent in the next few years!!
http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/12/3/Toronto-condo-prices-could-soar-40-predicts-developer.aspx
——————————
This is an opinion by a real estate developer who is interested in such outcome.
It is not a news.
As for the people ‘building equity’ and ‘wealth’ in real estate, that was the case also with the tulip mania. Or any bubble. You ‘build wealth’ until you can’t and it all disappears.
Ii you believe it is the right thing to do you can always buy, take an extra loan, leverage and buy.
That glass condo with big maintenance fees, property taxes, 2 land transfer taxes, capped income from rent is surely worth it.
#198 Sam J: You need a lesson in how taxation works:
The cost of dinner
Each and every day, 10 men go to a restaurant for dinner together. The bill for all 10 comes to $100 each day. If the bill were paid the way we pay our taxes, the first four would pay nothing; the fifth would pay $1; the sixth would pay $3; the seventh $7; the eighth $12; the ninth $18. The 10th man – the richest – would pay $59. Although the 10 men didn’t share the bill equally, they all seemed content enough with the arrangement – until the restaurant owner threw them a curve.
“You’re all very good customers,” the owner said, “so I’m going to reduce the cost of your daily meal by $20. I’m going to charge you just $80 in total.” The 10 men looked at each other and seemed genuinely surprised, but quite happy about the news.
The first four men, of course, are unaffected because they weren’t paying anything for their meals anyway. They’ll still eat for free. The big question is how to divvy up the $20 in savings among the remaining six in a way that’s fair for each of them. They realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33, but if they subtract that amount from each person’s share, then the fifth and sixth men would end up being paid to eat their meals. The restaurant owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each person’s bill by roughly the same percentage, and he proceeded to work out the amounts that each should pay.
The results? The fifth man paid nothing, the sixth pitched in $2, the seventh paid $5, the eighth paid $9, the ninth paid $14, leaving the 10th man with a bill of $50 instead of $59. Outside the restaurant, the men began to compare their savings. “I only got one dollar out of the $20,” said the sixth man, pointing to the 10th man, “and he got $9!” “Yeah, that’s right,” exclaimed the fifth man. “I only saved a dollar, too! It’s not fair that he got nine times more than me!” “That’s true,” shouted the seventh man. “Why should he get back $9 when I only got $2? The rich get all the breaks!” “Wait a minute,” yelled the first four men in unison. “We didn’t get anything at all. The system exploits the poor!”
The nine outraged men surrounded the 10th and brutally assaulted him. The next day, he didn’t show up for dinner, so the nine sat down and ate without him. But when it came time to pay the bill, they faced a problem that they hadn’t faced before. They were $50 short.
#169 Love this Blog on 12.29.15 at 7:57 am
#167 TRT
How will Poloz prevent the dollar from sinking lowere than your very precise 66.6 cents?
—————————————————————–
Silly rabbit, that number is a huge support at 1.50. It will be held. Central banks have a lot more power than you think and there is great political interference.
#141 prairie person on 12.28.15 at 11:27 pm
Garth, the madness continues. A house converted into four condos: basement, 579,000; two on main floor, 700,000 each; top floor, 1,700,000. Not sure what is happening in Victoria but houses in this area are selling like they used to. For sale sign goes up. Sold sign follows shortly. Sure wish we had reliable figures instead of just anecdotes. But a converted house with units at these prices seems crazy. I knew something was happening because my daughter and her husband have a paid off house, beautiful house, double lot on the peninsula. Empty nest. They’d like to move into the city. They can’t get enough for their place to make the move.
************************
Perhaps the small uptick in sold signs is partly due to increase down payments and higher interest rates coming to a city near you. It is hard to image some people running to their own financial hardships. A colleague at work wants to climb the latter from a condo to a 600K-700K house. Just goes to show that even those educated in economics catch the knife on the way down. What a waste of knowledge…greed blinders must be on.
#211 IHCTD9 on 12.29.15 at 12:13 pm
#125 JSS on 12.28.15 at 10:20 pm
RIP Lemmy
————-
Amen.
And even though most millennials probably don’t know who he was, let’s play “eat the Rich” one more time – just for them.
……
Damn…. RIP Lemmy,
Ace of Spades
#208 paul on 12.29.15 at 12:03 pm
There should be a minimum charge $25 for a Doctor’s office visit and $50 for emergency room.
Let the hate begin!
—————————————————————-
Hate? Not from me.
Even in socialist led France you have to pay something when visiting the doctor.
Only when you are really poor are you eligible to a special insurance card that lets you visit the doctor 100% free.
That would fix many issues in Canada (or at least Quebec, which is the province I know best).
@JamesA: #214
I think what your quote is stating is that the traditional rules of the game may no longer apply. Those who follow the herd tend to make statements just like this (the model is broken! Oh Woe is the Model!), while those who are successful just adapt, correct and overcome.
#217
I am not negative the US. My TFSA is very US heavy (no maple). Its just an interesting article. The US fed knows they need to go positive so they have tools for the next unknown and inevitable crisis down the road.
Just because the US is trying to pull up and normalize, the rest of the world may try this crazy (negative rates) tactic. I think the author is talking about the rest of the world, not the US.
(I tried to type this same-ish message a minute ago on a tablet and it did not go through, not sure if bug or filtered.)
I’d actually suggest that doomsters and America-haters have peppered this blog with identical fearmongering for the past five years, during which the US economy has steadily recovered, the unemployment rate has halved and the country has weaned off stimulus, while reaping the benefits of the commodity bust which now imperils Canada. There are lots of things for you pantywaists to worry about. The US isn’t one of them. — Garth
As the US of A is (trying to) run the world, everybody worries about their lunacy. The amount of info. you discredit to come up with your rosie picture only speaks to your bias. Can the rest of the world sink while the US (best bias) rises? Good luck with that. Even the BIS disagrees with you and we all know how much you love an appeal to authority fallacy, well, the BIS is THE central bank. Chew on that.
Hello Garth,
In your mind, what policies should Canada implement to get our economy up and running again? Personally, I cannot think of anything that will make that happen other than (1) a further devaluation of the canadian dollar to make us attractive for foreign investment, combined with (2) encouraging entrepreneurship and innovation, and (3) immigration policies aimed at attracting talent. It is not clear how to realize (2) thought without tax breaks and investment, both of which would mean running even bigger deficits, and payoffs will take more years than a 4-year election cycle, meaning that no govt is likely to want to invest in that. What are your thoughts?
#157: “Why in the hell would you EVER accept waiting more than a day to receive relief or care if your shoulder was in extreme pain?? Seriously. WTF!?!?! In Canada, you WAIT. Period.”
***************************
True ’emergencies’ include heart attacks, strokes, serious accidents. Minor Treatment within Emergency deals with broken bones, etc. — “bumps and bruises” as one doc described the department. All generally very busy and so, yes, you will often wait for hours….because you are not an ’emergency’. Use a Walk-In.
#216 The American on 12.29.15 at 12:39 pm
For anyone who hasn’t already seen The Big Short, I recommend watching it. Basically, it is precisely why Cohodes is shorting the Canadian RE market. Plus, one of the characters is a Canadian (which I know means so much to you all as you can’t help pointing out when a Canadian is a part of anything interesting).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3hG4X5iTK8M
——
Great movie!
But you’re the one who posts on a Canadian blog calling yourself “The American”, n’est ce pas?
#215 Godth on 12.29.15 at 12:34 pm
#206 Steeerage Bilge on 12.29.15 at 11:43 am
His brain isn’t malfunctioning.
http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2011/10/the-optimists-brain.html
—————
Those that vomit sunshine.. be doomed!
#208 Abuses in health care.
Hamilton had a number of people who racked up over 100 visits to the emergency room last year. They have them in a program. Lotsa luck with that. It will probably just encourage them to show up in the ER even more.
http://www.thespec.com/news-story/2270838-a-pilot-program-for-frequent-er-users/
Para-medics were called to two addresses in Hamilton in excess of 100 times in 2010.
http://www.thespec.com/news-story/2146463-code-red-band-aid-fixes-getting-us-nowhere/
Florida was considering limiting emergency room visits to 6 a year. Sounds reasonable to me.
Maybe Hamilton could have a puppy program and give all those lonely people a puppy so they wouldn’t show up at the ER a hundred times a year.
#230 Steerage Bilge on 12.29.15 at 2:35 pm
They would have been eaten by a predator in the good old days…oh, wait – hmmm.
In other news, Tim Hortons has evidently changed their coffee supplier. The last 4 I got were all the same, and I’ve dumped the last two. It’s been the same crap that tastes like hot water with creme dumped in it every time. This last one was my final test to see if it indeed has changed, or if I just got a few bad ones. A quick google confirms my suspicions, others are dumping too.
Well, so long Timmies, hello McDonalds…
Now, back to your regularly scheduled generation wars!
#208: “There should be a minimum charge $25 for a Doctor’s office visit and $50 for emergency room.
Let the hate begin!”
*********************
No hate. User fees might be a great deterrent. We did have a $10 fee for Emergency, and why it was eliminated I have no idea. Mom should be able to deal with Juniors’ sniffles at home… LOL
To Cropgrower #205
The like to call it a wealth tax or inheritance tax but really it is a Death Tax pure and simple.
They are profiting from the death of a loved one or loved ones that already paid multiple times taxes from G.S.T. to H.S.T. to income taxes to C.P.P., E.I., health taxes to gasoline taxes, excise taxes to property taxes, land transfer taxes etc. etc.
It is not that they did not pay taxes on it like a RRSP or a rental or a non primary property. There are many taxes already due when someone passes away or transfers to some other family member, capital gains taxes, RRIF taxes, RRSP taxes, taxes on earned investment income like dividends, interest, pension income etc. etc.
The Dividend tax credit is a perfect example of double or multiple taxation of company’s earnings being taxed many times on that same money.
A smaller but not exactly the same concept of a death tax is the 8% portion of Liberal H.S.T. now on funerals, plots and other final expenses because of a death of a loved one.
This is about a $1,000 to $2,000 death tax deguised as H.S.T. but is only paid on the death of someone’s last wishes and instructions. It is sickening to profit from the death of a family member.
Didn’t the feds delve into Switzerlands’ health care system a few years ago? Because they’re well within their health care budget, apparently. Nothing came of it. I guess their methods made too much sense.
#234 Daisy Mae on 12.29.15 at 2:49 pm
#208: “There should be a minimum charge $25 for a Doctor’s office visit and $50 for emergency room.
Let the hate begin!”
*********************
No hate. User fees might be a great deterrent. We did have a $10 fee for Emergency, and why it was eliminated I have no idea. Mom should be able to deal with Juniors’ sniffles at home… LOL
////////////////////////////////////
Hi Daisy,did you go away on holidays recently ?
It was so nice with out you! Lol
You come here to snipe people and then add lol thinking it makes everything alright lol
When I read your posts and see lol I think …Loser On Line.
I’d actually suggest that doomsters and America-haters have peppered this blog with identical fearmongering for the past five years, during which the US economy has steadily recovered, the unemployment rate has halved and the country has weaned off stimulus, while reaping the benefits of the commodity bust which now imperils Canada. There are lots of things for you pantywaists to worry about. The US isn’t one of them. — Garth
This is why doomers are poor. They’re too busy soiling their underwear while the rich take advantage of them. By the way, it’s pay-the-rent week. And in USD to boot. Daddy needs grocery and gasoline money.
Yo! BC Guy. How long have you been waiting to buy? 8 and a half months????? When its 24 months lift your head outta the sand and look around. Prices will be dropping……..Then you can buy your castle in the sky.
But dont make it too nice or jealous people( like you are right now) will demand the govt expropriate it….
Karma’s a bee-yatch.
Is this a quote from 2007?
#216 The American
I read the book and quite enjoyed it. Usually unsure about movies after reading a book but love the cast of this one.
Glad to hear it’s good.
Posting from Lagos. Nice place, just need an armed escort to/from the airport. Insurance requirement. I think I smelled booze on the breath of one of our “guardians”. Hopefully the safety’s on, on the AK. Ahhh Afreeka!
But what’s with the extra CAPTCHA to be able to view the site? Does Mr. Turner have something against Nigerians? lol
As an aside -The American certainly sounds like an angry little man today, more than usual.
If the Trudeau and Liberal gang want to tax something meaningful tax primary residences called capital gains. The first $100,000 n capital gains should be at 20%, next $100,000 and above taxed at 30%.
Real estate is out of control in Canada and maybe the selling point used by real estate agents and brokers to buy real estate being income tax free will make more people wary of putting all their money into a $600,000, $700,000, $800,000 to $1,000,000 property being in debt to their eyeballs.
#226 Godth on 12.29.15 at 2:20 pm
Post after post from you about how everyone else is wrong but YOU are right.
From what I’ve read so far you are way off about weed, geopolitics, the economy…and well pretty much everything.
Garth presents stat after stat showing the US is the one bright spot in the world and you disagree simply because you don’t like the US and nothing more.
Who else would you like to be top dog? China? Russia? It is YOUR delusional bias that is showing.
MF
“Operating largely out of public view — in tax court, through arcane legislative provisions and in private negotiations with the Internal Revenue Service — the wealthy have used their influence to steadily whittle away at the government’s ability to tax them. The effect has been to create a kind of private tax system, catering to only several thousand Americans.
The impact on their own fortunes has been stark. Two decades ago, when Bill Clinton was elected president, the 400 highest-earning taxpayers in America paid nearly 27 percent of their income in federal taxes, according to I.R.S. data. By 2012, when President Obama was re-elected, that figure had fallen to less than 17 percent, which is just slightly more than the typical family making $100,000 annually, when payroll taxes are included for both groups.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/30/business/economy/for-the-wealthiest-private-tax-system-saves-them-billions.html
This will not happen, it does not happen here! We are different!
Joking Man is gonna love this one….
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/features/6828007/Claims-bizarre-800-year-old-mobile-phone-object-has-been-dug-up-by-archaeologists.html
Why would you buy something you can rent for half the price? — Garth
It’s more like 75% the price in central areas. Why? 10 years of solid gains and low vacancy rates leading to large rental increases. Renters have lost for the last 20 years in Vancouver and Toronto proper.
False. Do the math. — Garth
Most younger Canadians meaning those in their late 20’s mid 30’s have no idea that the $4,500 annual TFSA contribution cut will cost themselves and their families minimum $1,000,000 in income taxes over their life time so in fact Justin Trudeau and Bill Morneau already has put a huge tax on their wealth and family’s wealth.
Over say minimum 40 year period, this works out to about $25,000 a year tax that they don’t even realize they are paying as they don’t see it deducted off their paycheck but are paying big time!
http://uk.businessinsider.com/iran-oil-costs-1-per-barrel-2015-12
This week, Kaletsky has a new suggestion for oil-watchers to consider: Iran may be able to produce oil for just $1 a barrel, he wrote in a recent column (emphasis ours):
ExxonMobil, Shell, and BP can no longer hope to compete with Saudi, Iranian, or Russian companies, which now have exclusive access to reserves that can be extracted with nothing more sophisticated than nineteenth-century “nodding donkeys.” Iran, for example, claims to produce oil for only $1 a barrel. Its readily accessible reserves — second only in the Middle East to Saudi Arabia’s — will be rapidly developed once international economic sanctions are lifted.
How low were we saying the loonie can go?
#164 Hicksville Alberta on 12.29.15 at 3:29 am
squidly#77
As for Calgary office space, the ” Guru’s ” are predicting vacancy to top out at something like 15% to 17% by the fall of 2016. In reality i think they will be lucky if it stops at 33% or so even with much lower rental rates prevailing right now.
********************************
It’s already at 18%… http://calgaryherald.com/business/commercial-real-estate/calgary-downtown-office-vacancy-rate-balloons-to-nearly-18
#241 BillyBob on 12.29.15 at 3:38 pm
Because he, like most Americans, realizes that the rest of the world has an inferiority complex and secretly wishes the US would fall.
That’s part of what makes Americans so patriotic.
Are there flaws? Sure. But I’d rather a strong US than a strong *insert other country*.
MF
#243 MF on 12.29.15 at 3:48 pm
I’m not sure what “right” means but wrong is much more obvious.
I’ve never said anything about weed, though I’m tempted to spark one up now.
Geopolitics- just google: full spectrum dominance. Read some Zbigniew Brzezinski and pay attention. It’s common knowledge now that the US, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey created al Qaeda/ ISIS. It’s been a 35 yr. Wahhabi project in the Muslim world. So now it’s up to you to integrate that into your worldview. It’s easy from the comfort of Canada, imagine if you were sitting on the oil in the ME that keeps the western lifestyle rolling…and the bombs are dropping.
The US is an empire now, Russia and China aren’t. There’s plenty of data to shine a light on how the US is the best in show at the glue factory. Do you really think the US can sustain “growth” while the rest of the world sinks into recession/depression? Never mind the environment and peak everything…or the stunning corruption.
I’m not into top dogs of any stripe. I think humans can do better. Which Mafia do you want to rule you? Have you stopped beating your wife yet?
If we’re going to “evolve” we’re going to have to get over it but I’m not placing any bets though I doubt it will happen.
It’s amazing how many ways people have to police each other and say “STFU”.
People get rich by avoiding tax? Sometimes this blog is breathtaking… — Garth
Um, isn’t that the whole idea behind TFSAs or did I miss something?
You have a low definition of ‘rich’. — Garth
prairie person: from your link: Toronto Fire says a semi-detached house in Toronto’s east end with structural damage appears to be collapsing, prompting an evacuation of the adjacent unit.
Fishee comment: Yep, good eye, noticed the conveyor and bin.
They were definitely lowering the basement without properly shoring the walls during excavation – partial cave-in.
one of my goals in life has been to avoid lowering a basement. If you don’t like the basement don’t buy the house.
BC Guy: you don’t have any idea of Canadian government. None. I hereby sentence you to one meeting at your local community association.
JS: Many families in Surrey/Delta have gone all in on real estate. What makes it even more concerning is most of them are directly employed in the housing sector
same thing happened in the US. Not only did their investment in real estate disappear so did their jobs. Well not quite disappear. Contractors went from full time employment to half time.
Retired Boomer WI: Currently, my share for a self +1 decent plan is $482.17 per month. So, take my share multiply by four and that is the “market price” for a Blue Cross Blue Shield national fee for service plan.
so for you and your wife cost is $2000 per month
Godth,
Now that post I can agree with partially. Is the world a perfect place? Hell no. But I’d still rather the us top dog in the glue factory.
The Mid East is a disaster, yes. But I see it more as a local power struggle with the west drawn in because of oil than a problem the western world helped create.
I think the US developed fracking technology to wean itself off of Mideast oil. I think that’s something they have been trying for years.
MF
“There’s no saving the situation and there’s no working with the bank. This is not the USA.”
There’s plenty of working with the bank, and “saving the situation”, or at least making it less worse than it needs to be.
As for finding me racist, I can’t possibly fathom why you believe that. Is talking about the sales mix racist? Is saying that Chinese people are (generally) far too intelligent to be using their own money to buy Canadian RE racist? Is pointing out that a lot of the ‘headline’ price changes are account of shifts to the sales mix racist? Because that’s basically all I talk about here.
Is the one on the right suppose to be Harper?
What/who the hell is that? Are you ill? Stop trolling, get a life (and some serious psychological/mental help).
#254 MF on 12.29.15 at 4:45 pm
So you prefer another Anglo stomping on your face rather than a Russian or Chinese. I vote for no empire. The world isn’t perfect and it never will be but if we can’t get over this monkey domination/distrust it’s clear we’re going to wipe most of us away. Maybe that’s just necessary but that is entirely hopeless. If we can’t learn to cooperate and get along more equitably then so be it, just another progress trap and biological dead end. Though I like to think the San people might survive. ;)
You clearly haven’t been paying attention to the ME then, it’s a convenient position you’ve taken but ridiculous.
Fracking is a relative bust in real terms. Energy in, energy out. If it wasn’t for cheap financing and rolling junk bonds it would have never happened, it’s not even really new tech., just temporarily convenient timing and a financing bubble to exploit. It’s a bust now regardless. World demand for oil has crashed, what does that tell you? Shine USA shine, all alone like a sun at midnight.
“Reality” like nature really doesn’t give a shit how we spin it – the truth will out. We’re in deep shit. Do you want to clear away unpayable debt through war or rational write-offs? This abstract game we create hasn’t fundamentally changed in thousands of years. We do have a choice, the debts will be cleared away one way or another.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GCqKYftRVE8
#256 Godth
Good link… probably too advanced to this crowd.
#38 earthbound, yup actual pearls of wisdom from SM.
Too bad they are mostly camoflaged by Jackass
News flash – Capitalism, at the hands of Wall Street, died in 2008. Blowback will not end in our (boomers) lifetime. That is all.
Today let’s review ways The Government actually makes investing easier and more profitable.
Really Garth!
You trust Government!!
No thanks to Government investing for me deferring taxes now to pay more later or through confiscation when the Financial Governmental World falls apart I don’t think so.
Not for me!
http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2015/12/mortgage-debt-the-scales-starting-to-tip.html#.VoPkP8IjUX0.facebook