Hark

Merry festive Yuletide wishes to you and whomever lives in your basement.

Okay, now we can move on. More salient issues lie before us as this flea-infested annus horribilis comes to a fitting demise. The big news here in Canuckistan is the economy, which must make a certain Hot One lament he ever selfied his way into the prime minister’s chair. The latest news, well, sucks.

The economy stagnated in October after declining in September. Before that it was in a recession for the first six months of the year. So we’ve had about two months of growth, and whatever the final sixty days brings. That means our GDP will expand this year by (maybe) 1.2%, which is a big fail compared to 2014, when growth was double. This is less than half the expansion in the States and one third of that of the world.

As for our dollar, look below. Almost the worst-performing in the world compared to the US$.

DOLLAR CHART

The real problem is oil. Yes, I understand nobody in Surrey or Etobicoke believes this matters a whit, but that’s just ostrich talk. In 2016 you will care deeply. Crude at today’s price (and it’s probably going lower) has robbed the dollar of a third of its value, decimated some of Canada’s biggest companies, increased unemployment by 50% in the energy sector’s homeland, crashed corporate bond returns and turned the TSX into a profitless wasteland.

In fact Bay Street’s performance is almost as embarrassing as that of Steve Harvey. This, of course, gives me total justification to, at this point, include a picture of poor Miss Colombia, Ariadna Gutierrez.

COLOMBIA

Whew. So for 2015 the Toronto market has shed about 11%, which is a big deal since 70% of Canadian investors have only maple in their portfolios. But with our chief export commodity having lost 40% of its value, with the dollar at an 11-year low, with big job losses, record household debt and the economy in a swamp, who should be surprised? Even this pathetic, dog-obsessed, quixotic, Millennial-baiting blog saw it coming.

Compare our performance to that of the G7 countries’ average, let alone France (up 14%), Japan (ahead 8.2%), Germany (+8.9%) or China (plus 21%):

TSX CHART

Here’s the latest, as of Wednesday: the oil shock has deepened, and despite a crashed dollar (which should make our experts sell better), there’s been a big drop for manufacturing, as well as construction and retail sales. Growth is half what economists were expecting, and they forecast it’ll take at least two years to get back to the so-so days of 2014. Between now and then, lots of people believe, even that modest goal will require another interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada. So much for the dollar and the returns paid to savers.

“As things stand now, we fear that the economy may never have escaped the recession that began earlier this year,” permabear economist David Madani told clients this week.

“Overall, with the economy now looking like it may have stagnated this quarter, the amount of excess slack will increase, creating more downside risk to the Bank of Canada’s longer-term outlook for underlying inflation. This supports our view that another interest rate cut is likely early next year, probably in April, though possibly sooner if oil prices fall any further.”

Meanwhile this struggling country may have gotten its princely young leader into the fashion pages of Vogue, but things are probably going to get uglier, oil-wise. OPEC now says demand for crude will remain sub-par for a decade, and new estimates are erupting for oil at $25, twenty bucks or even lower. And the image of Canada cannot be saved even by the telegenic first family. “The Oil Price Crash is taking a Heavy Toll on Canada,” shouted Bloomberg’s front page on Wednesday. “And the Worst is Yet to Come.”

Great.

By ‘worst’ you should expect next year to be one of increasing job stress and decreasing credit. I think you know what that means for your house.

Then again, 2016 may be when Justin gives us weed.  What a dude. No worries.

244 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 12.23.15 at 3:24 pm

I saw Batman kissing Santa Claus. Q1 will be very interesting next year.

#2 LowRent of Arabia on 12.23.15 at 3:24 pm

Everybody must be shopping tonight.

#3 Rick Fast on 12.23.15 at 3:25 pm

First! I did it. Looking forward to the GTA house market being lower!

#4 Enthalpy on 12.23.15 at 3:28 pm

In for more pics of Miss Colombia.

#5 Stephen Harp the hERald sings on 12.23.15 at 3:29 pm

You got that right, most Canadians voted for WEED and got WEED and the reason is simple they know what is coming and their HOT PM will not be so hot when everything blows up in their face. LMFAO

#6 JimH on 12.23.15 at 3:31 pm

#267 saskatoon on 12.23.15 at 2:43 pm
#247 JimH
“… dude… you don’t even know what quantitative easing is… as previously established… lol”
==============================
No, I’m the one laughing, sasktoon!

You see, we know very well what QE is; It’s you that is way out in the back pasture on that one! But every school of economics now in basic agreement on the subject of how QE actually works!

But enjoy your childish little chuckle!

Yes, sir! I must be the dummy… After all, it is I who sat out on the pool deck this morning here in Southern Arizona, doing a little cozy portfolio re-balancing while soaking up the sun!

While you? Oh, yes… Saskatoon?

“lol” is so right!

#7 LowRent of Arabia on 12.23.15 at 3:34 pm

Sultan of Brunei sheetcanned Christmas.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/12/23/how-the-sultan-of-brunei-banned-christmas.html

Saves me money…sounds good to me.

#8 bill on 12.23.15 at 3:41 pm

Ms. Gutierrez photo can very easily be justified from an artistic point of view. Not to mention her contribution to world peace in this festive season.
Merry Christmas Everyone and a Happy New Year!!

#9 Jimmy on 12.23.15 at 3:43 pm

Yuck!
Just heard PM Justine’s holiday message on the radio.
What do you folks think of it?

#10 young & foolish on 12.23.15 at 3:45 pm

Ya …. Another year of lacklustre “growth” …. Everywhere. But at least with balanced & diversified you can preserve your capital.

#11 Andrew Kucy on 12.23.15 at 3:48 pm

Garth, it’s COLOMBIA not COLUMBIA! Typo in your sentence above the photo.

Steve Harvey made the same mistake… don’t be a Steve!

#12 Smoking Man on 12.23.15 at 3:49 pm

In four years.
Dude, See he wasn’t ready. yeah Dude .

Center page of zero guy…COWTOWN…And it’s just starting.

http://www.zerohedge.com/

#13 Editrix on 12.23.15 at 3:50 pm

#5 Stephen Harp the hERald sings

Time to invest in Lays, Old Dutch & Hostess. Potheads get the munchies, I understand.

#14 IHCTD9 on 12.23.15 at 3:52 pm

“The Oil Price Crash is taking a Heavy Toll on Canada,” shouted Bloomberg’s front page on Wednesday. “And the Worst is Yet to Come.”
________________________________________

Nothing to worry about, the budget will balance itself.

#15 Lulu on 12.23.15 at 3:56 pm

And the winner is……. Janet Yellen…. I apologize, my mistake…. and the Winner is……Canada Housing Market.

NOT!!!!

#16 IHCTD9 on 12.23.15 at 3:58 pm

By ‘worst’ you should expect next year to be one of increasing job stress and decreasing credit. I think you know what that means for your house.

_____________________________________

I worry not of credit tightening, nor of housing values.

Unfortunately, I still have to worry about job security – but this at least that gives me my pass to keep tearing JT new ones.

I will be worrying less if Q1 sees a BoC cut and a Fed raise, this should finally get us some US work – I hope…

#17 robert james on 12.23.15 at 4:00 pm

More Cowtown misery..I feel sorry for these people………..http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/the-oil-crash-is-taking-a-heavy-toll-on-alberta-and-the-worst-is-yet-to-come?__lsa=262d-f3f3

#18 gut check on 12.23.15 at 4:04 pm

I don’t want to be all doomy right before Christmas, but I’m gonna.

Shelves are getting bare out there. There are large swathes of everyday items missing from the stores. You can still get toaster ovens and towels for now, but look for those things that you buy twice or three times a month and they are dwindling. they’ll likely re-stock, but at what price?

Our food delivery system is crashing, it seems. Even in the ‘good days’ of dollar parity the produce sucked having been trucked from a thousand miles away instead of sourced locally – but now that same sucky green pepper is just… not there. Or if you find a shrunken sample stashed in the mushroom basket it’s astronomically priced.

In Ontario the doctors are cutting back since the province has cut their payments.

Hydro.. need I say more?

And of course, winter is coming.

blah blah blah portfolio – it’s not going to make you healthy happy or warm if you stay in Canada.

This seems pretty dire from where I sit.

#19 salonist on 12.23.15 at 4:07 pm

sm
nectonite dress rehearsal.sm is watching
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rL8x5F-JTu8
jd optional

https://vimeo.com/23948933

#20 Sandip on 12.23.15 at 4:07 pm

Merry Christmas to you Garth and your folks. Many thanks for an exceptional and nuanced blog as always.

For the risk averse and the truly detached it has been an exceptionally profitable year, as was 2014, as 2016 will be…….

Best wishes

#21 Bill Gable on 12.23.15 at 4:11 pm

Thank you, Mr. Turner – for another year of instructive, brilliant and funny posts, here at Greaterfool.ca

All the best of the Season to your Family, including Bandit and the Amazons, of course.

2016 is going to be something else!

#22 Spaccone on 12.23.15 at 4:15 pm

Canada on zeroedge’s radar…the permabear website born at the start of one of the greatest US recoveries/bull markets of our generation…this has to be some sort of good sign?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-23/canadas-depression-surging-crime-soaring-suicides-overwhelmed-food-banks-and-worst-y

#23 Keith in Calgary on 12.23.15 at 4:19 pm

Having weed when you have no money, is better than having money but not having weed.

That is the only reason why I voted Liberal. I, and every other person I know who is under 30.

“Kanaduh” is screwed, Harpo did it to us thru gross fiscal mismanagment, and the bearded wuss or Trudeau are not goind to make it better. They can’t. No one can.

I have been a conservative since I voted, but not this year.

#24 Trading Naked on 12.23.15 at 4:20 pm

No, mistake #1 was watching BNN without reading/understanding the disclaimers. That’s like saying reading is bad for you. It’s not; one only has to read while thinking critically.

#248 Mark on 12.23.15 at 12:30 pm
(mistake #1 — watching BNN!).

#25 Goldie on 12.23.15 at 4:22 pm

At the time of my posting, Brent is currently cheaper than WTI(by about 20 cents)!

Btw, it’s certainly in OPEC’s best interest to predict sub par oil demand for a decade. They are doing everything they can to drive the market lower. Truth is, not even mighty OPEC has the power to predict demand for such a timescale.

#26 Nemesis on 12.23.15 at 4:24 pm

#SeasonalOddities,Or… #TheSnowMan,Squirrel&Tit…

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/picturegalleries/picturesoftheday/12065339/Pictures-of-the-day-23-December-2015.html?frame=3533819

#&TheGreatHelmsman!… #UshersInANewEra… #InRichmondStrataCouncils…

https://youtu.be/HGJpbPhQ-Kw

#27 Old Man Too on 12.23.15 at 4:24 pm

“Before that it was in a recession for the first six months of the year. ”
Hold on. You used the R word. Harpo denied we were in a recession and said we’d have a budget surplus. You mean he lied to us?

Have a happy holiday or Merry Christmas…your choice.

#28 paul a. on 12.23.15 at 4:30 pm

Well Garth thanks for the advice throughout, may you and yours including the dogs have a very merry christmas me, im not going to worry about it until Monday,going to consume ungodly amounts of spirits,dead bird and anti’s home baking stuff cheers to all well deal with the hangover next year,it will be a dandy.

#29 Retired Boomer WI on 12.23.15 at 4:35 pm

HARK!! The Hairy angel sings!

While I look from our Christmas Cookie smell-filled kitchen onto the rain soaked landscape here in the land of idle sand mines, and contended cows, while those 180 miles south dodge tornado threats. Weird year 2015.

Just over a week brings that New Year. Same problems, same economic strains,but hopes that things might somehow begin to shed the light of a new dawn!

Yeah, 2015 will end up much as it began. No great returns from my portfolio, but those $$$ live on to try to earn a better return in 2016. Will they? Time will tell.

In the interim we will read of all new scandals, closings, and human frailties. Curious species we humans be.

#30 Canadian on 12.23.15 at 4:38 pm

An alarming number of Colombian women are beautiful and look like Sofia Vergara.

Maybe I should brush up on the Spanish, I’m sure my wife won’t mind. Maybe send my little ones to Spanish Montessori so she’s none-the-wiser?

#31 Feeling the pain on 12.23.15 at 4:38 pm

I am good at listening to Garth, but not good at executing the strategy. 90% is in maple: TSX down 10+%, dollar down 30+% :(

#32 pinstripe on 12.23.15 at 4:43 pm

Edmonton is immune.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/edmonton-s-economy-is-an-island-in-the-storm-says-city-s-chief-economist-1.3378787

#33 Vlad the Inhaler on 12.23.15 at 4:48 pm

Ronnie Hawkins says he smoked weed with T1.

https://youtu.be/_TORokCTy04

#34 Rock Beats Paper on 12.23.15 at 4:50 pm

Oil at $25 is a 33% haircut from here. Possible, but not likely, unless the Saudi’s can increase production by an additional 1 million barrels.

Everything Garth has mentioned is first derivative stuff. That is why supply glut, Iran, blah blah blah are already priced into the market and then some (damn futures traders).

What people need to observe is that oil stocks are way up from their bottom (the large caps 30-40%). “Smart” money sold oil and oil stocks much earlier. The last sellers were retail investors who sold at the bottom because there advisors told them to get out of maple for tax losses and other reasons.

Stocks typically bottom before oil because the smart money will profit by purchasing the stocks in advance of the commodity’s move.

Unfortunately, I do not think oil stocks and their rebound will hold up real estate no matter it plays out.

#35 Buy? Curious? on 12.23.15 at 4:51 pm

I am certainly enjoying Canada’s decline but feel equally sadden by it. As you know, any Canadian who wants to succeed, has to leave to Canada. Even in refugees, as mentioned in a recent Globe and Mail article written by Doug Saunders, don’t want to go to Canada. Unless Canadians abandon the idea of how great they are, which is a myth, they’ll never prosper.

Smoking Man for PM!

#36 Anthony on 12.23.15 at 4:55 pm

Weed tourism is going to be Canada’s main money maker soon.

#37 Doug t on 12.23.15 at 4:58 pm

Batten down the hatches – Canada is done riding the unicorn – but hey if your a boomer it’s not letting like we haven’t been here before – as a country we have always relied too heavily on our natural resources – life’s a bitch. Be thankful you don’t live in a country with REAL problems

#38 BigEnglish on 12.23.15 at 4:59 pm

Thanks Garth for a informative year of advice and opinions.

I’ve taken action on some for the preservation of capital and will take more action in 2016.

Wish you and yours all the best over the Christmas season.

#39 Bottoms_Up on 12.23.15 at 5:04 pm

People should be up in arms, why was oil ever at $140/barrel? Why were we paying $1.40/litre for gas? Why are we still paying $0.90+?

On another note, Ottawa stats are out, sales year to date are +5%, prices +1.7%. Anyone that uses anecdotal evidence to suggest there is impending doom in the Ottawa market is smoking crack.

#40 John on 12.23.15 at 5:04 pm

So Poloz might cut the rates…. Guess we’re not following the Yanks in tandem….. for the next while. eh? Worse, the Yanks can now export oil for the first time since the 70s. Yoh Alberta! How’s that for news? Pretty sad. Then, the US just got fiesty and slapped a 256% dumping tax on Chinese steel and decided foreigners buying US properties (including REIT stuff) get a ‘tax’ break there to vacuum in the loot.. Sounds like the US has some kind of check list… and they’re checking it twice…

#41 bdy sktrn on 12.23.15 at 5:09 pm

#11 Andrew Kucy on 12.23.15 at 3:48 pm
Garth, it’s COLOMBIA not COLUMBIA! Typo in your sentence above the photo.
=======================
i think he fixed it but i’m checking back every so often to be sure!

#42 Zed in Geneva on 12.23.15 at 5:11 pm

My swiss Francs gained value compared to everything in 2015, and the swiss stock market is down 4.5%.

I am down on all fronts on my investments, in Switzerland in CHF and the rest of the world when I bring back the numbers back to CHF.

You mention France and Germany markets being up, but the € has loss 10% versus the US.$, this means that european are not richer in the world now except if they are invested in US$. And then only a little bit since the US markets are very close to even.

Of course canadians invested in ca$ are down this year in the Big World, but they are not the only ones.

Invest in your currency, in the one you will use most of the time. Taxation on dividends helps canadians a lot. I know from my experience here in Switzerland where div are taxed as regular income.

#43 John on 12.23.15 at 5:12 pm

So, in 2008 the Fed started paying .25% or so on the big banks deposits on file with the fed, called excess liquidity (or something) and now Janet upped the payout to .50%. Paid in ever more valuable (for now) US bucks. Neat. Even foreign banks, busy in the US, get the payouts. Infact, read that the foreign banks earn enough on the Fed payouts to match the US banks. Guess that’s one way to keep the cash stash in the US kitty. Is it any wonder that Poloz keeps mouthing words like ‘negative rates’. Meaning what the Fed pays out to Canadian banks (and others) Poloz trucks away up in Maple land. Is that how you finance another rate cut? Not sure. Over to you Garth. Thanks for the post.

#44 Hope & Ruin on 12.23.15 at 5:13 pm

Happy Festivus!!

#45 Frank on 12.23.15 at 5:15 pm

Employed by an American company in a non-energy sector. I’m not worried.

Living in Vancouver, a city not affected by oil prices. In fact boosted by cheaper exports. So jobs will be safer here than anywhere. Another rate cut? That’ll help real estate here too.

Doom for Canada in 2016. Boom for Vancouver real estate in 2016.

#46 John on 12.23.15 at 5:18 pm

A rate cut usually means real estate keeps moving up or something. Poloz keeps warning the Canadian real estate lusties to cool their jets, so lowering the rates makes one wonder if he is just mouthing empty rhetoric on the indebted Canadian file. I guess lower rates might also mean more margin debt is possible; meanwhile US broccoli is selling for $3.99 for a 2-head bunch a couple of hours ago…

#47 John on 12.23.15 at 5:22 pm

At some point Canadians might just get their pay cheque in Canadian loonies and convert into US bucks or put it in a US savings account at the bank. Maybe the $.60 loonie will be the panic button moment. Businesses needing US bucks too might ditch loonies, quick. Already happening (in spades) in Oil exporting Nigeria.

#48 Leo Trollstoy on 12.23.15 at 5:31 pm

As for our dollar, look below. Almost the worst-performing in the world compared to the US$.

Man the people who thought that the CAD was going higher in 2014 were clearly very very wrong!

I believe the CAD$ is on its way up soon, personally, in response to this deflation and an associated credit contraction. So wouldn’t worry too much about the foreign imported goods being much of a factor. USD$ strength is temporary at best.
http://forums.redflagdeals.com/deflation-1418406/#post17933797

Might a more meaningful turnaround in the CAD/USD pair be around the corner? Past week or two have been awfully stable. So much for the whole idea that we were going back to 80 cents or whatever the gloom and doomers were claiming, based on some ill-thought out idea of ‘fundamentals’ (or worse, relying upon fundamentally flawed things like hamburger prices!).
http://forums.redflagdeals.com/canadian-dollar-its-ups-downs-1442859/2/#post18314660

I wouldn’t view what’s happening as anything but short-term cyclical weakness. And of course, a great buying opportunity in the CAD$, and a great shorting opportunity for USD$ stuff. Take out some loans in USD$, and pay them back with more valuable CAD$ in the not-so-distant future.
http://forums.redflagdeals.com/hot-deal-canadian-dollar-loonie-sale-1434335/#post18149278

These people are just horrible at figuring out the direction of the CAD/USD. Stick with Garth’s blog folks.

#49 zedgt87 on 12.23.15 at 5:36 pm

>Then again, 2016 may be when Justin gives us weed.

Finally some common sense on prohibition is leaking mainstream.

FINALLY.

Jesus. If we hadn’t wasted so much resources attempting to ban something humans have done for generations upon generations, our fiscal situation might be drastically different today.

#50 Tom from Missisauga on 12.23.15 at 5:37 pm

There are easily over 100 payday loan stores in Peel Region now. Rate cut is meaningless to most. The lower currency will hurt more through price inflation than help goods production (we can’t beat Mexico at it anyway).

#51 Marcus on 12.23.15 at 5:38 pm

2016 is going to be just great.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-23/canadas-depression-surging-crime-soaring-suicides-overwhelmed-food-banks-and-worst-y#comments

#52 Firebird on 12.23.15 at 5:43 pm

Harper trashed Canada during his reign here and abroad. He lost all respect world wide, as has Obama. It will take years to heal the wounds. Garth, you continually criticize T2. Give him a chance, a year or two. It’s not fair judging a new leader who is new to office for such a short time but is trying to bring some respect back to this country. I have travelled abroad for many years but always have the greatest feeling when the wheels touch down in my country Canada.

#53 Ray Skunk on 12.23.15 at 5:43 pm

#38

On another note, Ottawa stats are out, sales year to date are +5%, prices +1.7%. Anyone that uses anecdotal evidence to suggest there is impending doom in the Ottawa market is smoking crack.

And which independent, unbiased source released those, I wonder? I assign as much credence to those stats as I do to the anecdotal ramblings of a drunken simpleton any day of the week.

BTW, were you around on this blog all of what, two days ago, when the RE board method of counting sales was completely discredited?

#54 Leo Trollstoy on 12.23.15 at 5:44 pm

More pics of miss Colombia please

#55 David on 12.23.15 at 5:47 pm

Not so bad. The downturn may help keep my income below $200,000 and free from super tax. (Of course, I don’t really earn anything near that but the grossing up of dividends puts me in danger.) This situation should allow me to dump some loser stock at a nice loss, cancelling capital gains elsewhere. All the while producing a windfall of pocket money which I will do my best to spend on fancy cruises, a new car, booze, etc. Anything to protect my pocket from the tax man. I wish you all a hearty 2016.

#56 Randy on 12.23.15 at 5:51 pm

A lot of people got it wrong Garth ! https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10153801924432629&set=a.123762032628.132884.527227628&type=3&theater

#57 Capit ul eh T2 on 12.23.15 at 5:55 pm

Time to throw in the towel.
Join the US of A before its to late.
Kanada just America’s hat.
Vote in that!

#58 Canadian on 12.23.15 at 5:58 pm

#35 Anthony on 12.23.15 at 4:55 pm

Nah. By the time we get through out legalization process California will have legalized it first. And nobody is going to pick a Canadian vacation over a Californian one if they are that desperate to smoke their pot.

Amsterdam + California = Monopoly on drug tourism.

Not that we would want that kind of thing in our country anyway I think. Cigarettes and alcohol attract a criminal element, marijuana won’t be any different.

#59 canuck on 12.23.15 at 5:58 pm

6 JimH on 12.23.15 at 3:31 pm

Yes, sir! I must be the dummy… After all, it is I who sat out on the pool deck this morning here in Southern Arizona, doing a little cozy portfolio re-balancing while soaking up the sun!

While you? Oh, yes… Saskatoon?

“lol” is so right!
_____________________________________________

Yet here you are, posting on a blog at mid-day… and after re-balancing your portfolio on the pool deck. What a party animal. How does your wife keep her hands off of you??

#60 Paul on 12.23.15 at 6:01 pm

Well according to Kevin Oleary today, Canada’s problems are all because of the NDP winning in Alberta.

#61 canuck on 12.23.15 at 6:01 pm

#22 Keith in Calgary on 12.23.15 at 4:19 pm

Having weed when you have no money, is better than having money but not having weed.

That is the only reason why I voted Liberal. I, and every other person I know who is under 30.

“Kanaduh” is screwed, Harpo did it to us thru gross fiscal mismanagment, and the bearded wuss or Trudeau are not goind to make it better. They can’t. No one can.

I have been a conservative since I voted, but not this year.
_____________________________________________

Then again, aren’t you the same Keith from Calgary that married a Brazilian and bragged about how you were going to move to that emerging financial superpower of a Country?

#62 Brian on 12.23.15 at 6:08 pm

Yesterday Garth called 2015 the top of the YVR RE market. LOL!

That beast knows no limits.

#63 Brian on 12.23.15 at 6:10 pm

Who is buying homes on Vancouver’s Angus Drive?

http://www.bcbusiness.ca/real-estate…rs-angus-drive

#64 kommykim on 12.23.15 at 6:11 pm

RE:

#26 Old Man Too on 12.23.15 at 4:24 pm
“Before that it was in a recession for the first six months of the year. ”
Hold on. You used the R word. Harpo denied we were in a recession and said we’d have a budget surplus. You mean he lied to us?

To quote one of Garth’s blog entires from November:
“Anyway, here’s the situation this weekend: the Cons lied. Thus, we do not have a balanced budget, as Joe O insisted for months and as the Harper government announced long before the election was called. That was a fabrication. It was marketing. Fraud.”

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/11/20/the-path-ahead/

#65 Brian Ripley on 12.23.15 at 6:14 pm

“The Oil Price Crash is taking a Heavy Toll on Canada,” Garth-Bloomberg

Woulda coulda shoulda.

My earlier post of March 2015 explains in part (a big part) why Alberta is facing such a huge wall of problems to overcome:

http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/ripped-off

Here are a few quotes from the post:

“Alberta’s so called “progressive” conservative governments; 7 consecutive iterations since 1971, have squandered their provincial energy resources leaving their treasury with a CAD 12 billion dollar debt and a 500 million dollar deficit”. The Tyee, January 19, 2015 AND “I truly believe one of the greatest mistakes we have made was to let our commitment to the Heritage Fund lapse…” said Alberta’s latest “progressive” conservative premier, Jim Prentice (BNN March 24, 2015)

In the post I created a table of comparison between Canada and Norway from an extract from the January 2013 Canadian Centre for Policy paper “The Petro-Path Not Taken – Comparing Norway with Canada and Alberta’s Management of Petroleum Wealth” by Bruce Campbell

The table headings are:

Management of Petroleum
During Latest Petro-Boom
Appropriation and Distribution of Oil Wealth
Climate Change

Apparently Canadian managers thought that the most expensive method of oil extraction required no contingency plan if the price of crude were to fall below break even.

This in my judgement parallels the mind-set of buyers of Canadian real estate: Asset prices won’t drop, nor will demand and the cost of finance won’t rise either.

In other words, the managers at the helm since the early 1970’s dismissed the need for risk management.

They got away with it. Perhaps elected politicians and appointed hires who masquerade as fiscal (and monetary) managers should have restraints on their access to buttons and levers that over-ride basic risk propositions.

I’m disappointed.

#66 Alvina Knows on 12.23.15 at 6:16 pm

#47 Leo Trollstoy on 12.23.15 at 5:31 pm

I am sure that if some of those posters weren’t permanently banned a lot of those posts would be deleted.

It is, however, a good reference for how wrong the unsophisticates can be.

We have not seen an interpretation of the COT charts in ‘q uite a while.

#67 espressobob on 12.23.15 at 6:18 pm

Thanks for the help Garth. The amazons rock!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AC3sZB-v7Q

#68 Selfie Wonder on 12.23.15 at 6:25 pm

“Jobs you want, weed you get. Smoke ’em if you got’em. Me, I don’t care, I have big hair. Make sure you vote for me though! That’s me on the poster.” – T2

https://thepointman.wordpress.com/2015/12/03/the-pratties-2015-the-race-is-on/

#69 AB on 12.23.15 at 6:26 pm

Be very happy about legalizing weed – the huge extra revenues that the Government will collect in taxes (as they now do for Liquor) may just save us, or at least help to reduce the huge deficits we are sure to be running!

#70 OXI in GREECE on 12.23.15 at 6:29 pm

Weed is so much better than Mr Al K Hol…….everyone knows it. And now our PM is fulfilling and election promise. Good job for a change…..

And just got back from 12 days in Brazil. Miss Columbia should have won. S. America has the most beautiful women in the world bar none……

#71 OXI in GREECE on 12.23.15 at 6:31 pm

Whoops…..Miss Colombia….sorry Miss absolutely beautiful……

#72 Mark on 12.23.15 at 6:31 pm

“On another note, Ottawa stats are out, sales year to date are +5%, prices +1.7%. Anyone that uses anecdotal evidence to suggest there is impending doom in the Ottawa market is smoking crack.”

I’m not going to comment specifically on Ottawa, but those numbers, just by themselves, often don’t tell the whole story. For example, if there’s been a significant shift in the sales mix in Ottawa (like there has been in GTA/GVR), then Realtor quoted transaction prices may very well be up, while prices on identical properties can be down.

The Realtors in Regina, believe it or not, had similar numbers earlier this year, but basically come out and said that the sales mix was responsible for most of the alleged modest ‘gains’, and that prices on identical resale properties actually fell. In a smaller community like Regina where there isn’t a huge gap between high-end housing and low-end housing, and the SFH is absolutely and utterly dominant, its pretty hard for the Realtors to pull the wool over the eyes of the public and claim stuff which runs contrary to widespread anecdotal experience. But in the GVR/GTA, they’ve had much better luck because there are a lot more variables which can be selectively massaged to suit the Realtors’ narrative, and if someone points to falling prices in, say, Mississauga, its easier for a Realtor to brush that off as being just one chunk of the region and even point to some other enclave where there is actually price growth (increasingly few and far between, but in any bear market, there’s always pockets of bull).

#73 Frank on 12.23.15 at 6:32 pm

BTW, were you around on this blog all of what, two days ago, when the RE board method of counting sales was completely discredited?

The point of that post was to say that realtors use tricks to skew numbers a little in their favour, not outright lie. There is no way prices are secretly falling.

#74 Caught In The Grip on 12.23.15 at 6:32 pm

How low will The Deep North Dollar go?

#75 For those about to flop... on 12.23.15 at 6:49 pm

I was just on a certain –bc banks website doing a bit of banking and a headline grabbed my attention.It read..
TFSA LIMIT NOW $10,000.
So curiosity got the better of me and I clicked on it and it stated “as of January 2015 the tfsa limit is now 10k”.
Someone want to tell these fools that the tyrant is no longer in power?

#76 For those about to flop... on 12.23.15 at 6:55 pm

Brian Ripley ,where were you yesterday when I was trying to get Victoria real estate update some help.
Your a day late and a graph short!

#77 Retired Boomer WI on 12.23.15 at 6:58 pm

So, il shocks deepened… “despite a ‘crashed dollar’ (which should make one experts sell better”…

I didn’t know a crashed dollar makes Experts sell better?

Wouldn’t enhancing their commission prospects have better results? Oh, it was just a typo… never mind.

Not often I get to poke fun with your expertly crafted written posts, but this IS one of them!

Thanks for all you do you wickedly astute human.

#78 Retired Boomer WI on 12.23.15 at 7:00 pm

dam….il should read ‘oil’ and missed the closing ‘)’

should learn top type… or proofread

#79 Sean on 12.23.15 at 7:02 pm

“Then again, aren’t you the same Keith from Calgary that married a Brazilian and bragged about how you were going to move to that emerging financial superpower of a Country?”

Before the BRICS economies became the BRIC-Shitting ones? :)

#80 For those about to flop... on 12.23.15 at 7:03 pm

#58 canuck on 12.23.15 at 5:58 pm
6 JimH on 12.23.15 at 3:31 pm

Yes, sir! I must be the dummy… After all, it is I who sat out on the pool deck this morning here in Southern Arizona, doing a little cozy portfolio re-balancing while soaking up the sun!

While you? Oh, yes… Saskatoon?

“lol” is so right!
_____________________________________________

Yet here you are, posting on a blog at mid-day… and after re-balancing your portfolio on the pool deck. What a party animal. How does your wife keep her hands off of you??
///////////////////////////////////////////////
I don’t know how long he’s down there but if you are snowbirding and you go”hard” every day you are coming home in a body bag.
I must be getting old sitting by the pool tapping away sounds fine to me.
If I go hard in the a.m. I don’t get to see the p.m.
As the rain and wind crashes against my window I am in Arizona in my mind…

#81 Ret on 12.23.15 at 7:09 pm

Selfies, weed and refugees will dominate the news for the next year or two. This is exactly what the government wants. The media are such useful idiots.

Unfortunately, the media driven issues are highly charged emotional diversions from the real problems behind Canada’s poor economic performance on the world stage.

#56 Join the US. – They would want to adopt us because…
I don’t think so. It’s our mess, we own it. Canada has nothing to offer the US.

#82 kilby on 12.23.15 at 7:10 pm

Just so grateful to be rid of Harper and all the bullshit about being the only leader with any fiscal abilities. All he ever did was to push oil and ignore everything else that needed attention. Huge deficits for years and an international embarrassment , at least with T2 other countries are at least talking to us.

#83 Millmech on 12.23.15 at 7:21 pm

I can’t see where all this tax money is going to come from legal weed.The people growing and selling it will just continue to do so without the worry of getting busted.Everyone will be growing it so why buy from the govt when you can grow your own.Hey maybe they’ll treat it like tobacco,that’s a legal product that everyone can grow right.T2 not stupid he will tax and treat weed just like tobacco,the next cash cow.

#84 Fred on 12.23.15 at 7:21 pm

In the spirit if Christmas I wonder, “Would Jesus read this blog?”

#85 Ken on 12.23.15 at 7:38 pm

Fred, Nope, Jesus would be telling us about how the money changers are ripping us all off.

#86 Balmuto on 12.23.15 at 7:38 pm

#47 Leo Trollstoy

How about this one:

“Oil prices are still within, on a yearly basis, their all-time highs. Not heading substantially down anytime soon, as production costs have risen dramatically.”

March 20, 2014.

http://forums.redflagdeals.com/canadian-dollar-its-ups-downs-1442859/9/

#87 RayofLight on 12.23.15 at 7:38 pm

Nothing to worry about. T2 has promised sunshine, ponies and WEED !
Thank You for your blog, Garth. It has helped me many time to obtain perspective on global trends. There are so many media opinions on all facets of the economy that it can get overwhelming. I trust your perspective and enjoy your sense of humor. I believe 2016 will be similar to 2015, only more volatile.

#88 young & foolish on 12.23.15 at 7:39 pm

Slow growth going forward ….. but you need cash flow. What to do?

#89 pwn3d on 12.23.15 at 7:42 pm

So toronto stocks down 10%, toronto housing up 10%.

As if it didn’t suck to be in the basement already.

#90 Timmy on 12.23.15 at 7:48 pm

I like today’s pic. Fine specimen. Question is when to buy back the tsx. Bank stocks have been hit and they have been taken down with the pack. Oil will probably go lower but a lot of big funds still have to incest in the Cdn market.

#91 TRT on 12.23.15 at 7:50 pm

Great Post and News Garth!

So here are my predictions for New Year:

1) Oil stays range bound between $30-40 — Foreign Oil will want to see permanent cutbacks in Oilsands production. Alberta is toast for foreseeable future. Only hope is to increase immigration there.

2) Bank cuts rates twice to zero. Loonie approaches 62 cents.

3) Immigration is increased via giving PR to most temp workers already in Canada.

4) Housing prices in Vancouver and Toronto continue to go up as most international migrants want to live in these 2 cities plus foreign capital inflows want to park their money here. RE recession almost everywhere else.

#92 Timmy on 12.23.15 at 7:51 pm

Boy That sleaz bag Harper sure left us with a fine mess. Thanks to his mix management our economy is cratering. What was the phrase he used? Oil superpower? Shame on those who were stupid enough to vote for him.

#93 waiting on the westcoast on 12.23.15 at 8:00 pm

#83 Fred on 12.23.15 at 7:21 pm says… “In the spirit if Christmas I wonder, “Would Jesus read this blog?””

Umm… I think he already reads the blog, you know, like… all-knowing… ;-)

#94 BC Guy on 12.23.15 at 8:03 pm

Thanks for the cute video of the dog waiting for Santa.

#95 JimH on 12.23.15 at 8:03 pm

#58 canuck on 12.23.15 at 5:58 pm
#6 JimH on 12.23.15 at 3:31 pm

“Yet here you are, posting on a blog at mid-day… and after re-balancing your portfolio on the pool deck.”
=====================================

Um… What were you doing in Geography class??? Can you even read a map? Have any idea about time zones, sonny?

The markets open in New York at 7:30 AM here (local time) in sunny and warm Arizona.

The time of my post is “Mid-day”??? you call 3:31 PM “mid-day”? 8 hours AFTER the markets opened?

I suppose you are used to sleeping in til noon?

Sweet Jesus! Smoking Man is dead right! The education systems have failed us miserably!

Hey canuck? you awake here, or is it past your bed-time?

#96 E Richard on 12.23.15 at 8:14 pm

Saudis must be chopping a lot of their generous social programs with their devalueing crude oil strategy:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/saudia-arabia-stops-scholarships-1.3377832

#97 conan on 12.23.15 at 8:18 pm

A few thoughts:
We could set up a refugee program for second place Miss Universe contestants.

#82 Millmech on 12.23.15 at 7:21 pm
Most people will buy legally, simply for the variety and convenience.
Copyright pirates said the same thing about Netflix.
Look at Netflix.

Merry Christmas everyone and especially to the dog loving Garthster who I thank daily for his informative blog.

#98 Suede on 12.23.15 at 8:23 pm

Alert: Mandarin only strata council meetings in Richmond BC

White male files human rights complaint.

Let’s see how far this goes.

MSM making Vancouverites hate on the Chinese with every newscast.

#99 BS on 12.23.15 at 8:29 pm

#22 Keith in Calgary on 12.23.15 at 4:19 pm

Having weed when you have no money, is better than having money but not having weed.

That is the only reason why I voted Liberal. I, and every other person I know who is under 30.

Clearly the people you know are not too bright. If you have money and can’t weed in then something is wrong. From what I have seen currently getting weed is easier than getting alcohol. Here in Vancouver there are at least 100 ‘dispensaries’. They out number liquor stores.

The only thing T2 will change is weed will cost you more. Like most other things since he was elected.

#100 Nanaimo Bar on 12.23.15 at 8:31 pm

Great article. Thanks for coming over to Bloomberg. Love that. Rock Star status coming your way. Get ready for makeup.

#101 jess on 12.23.15 at 8:32 pm

bricks and mortar vs onliners

Amazon and eBay face crackdown over VAT fraud by overseas sellers

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/dec/22/tax-officials-investigate-amazon-ebay-vat-fraud-overseas-sellers

…”Growing numbers of businesses from China are using Chinese-run warehouses in UK port cities as staging posts, allowing them to offer eBay and Amazon shoppers rapid delivery as well as competitive prices.

In many instances, sellers are not disclosing VAT numbers in their eBay and Amazon listings. When asked by a customer for a VAT receipt, several have simply replied that they do not apply the tax.”…

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/nov/01/uk-losing-millions-vat-non-eu-sellers-amazon-ebay

#102 Hark | Realties.ca on 12.23.15 at 8:34 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/12/23/hark/ […]

#103 Chinese Immigrant on 12.23.15 at 8:39 pm

You want our money yet you want us to forget our way of life?

Can’t have it both ways.

If the majority are OK with Mandarin, so be it. Richmond BC already has a policy that permits Chinese only signs.

#104 Row Bear on 12.23.15 at 8:44 pm

#82 Millmech
They’ll buy for the same reason they buy more expensive bottled water, brand name drugs etc. advertising, peer pressure and showing off.

#105 canuck on 12.23.15 at 8:48 pm

#94 JimH on 12.23.15 at 8:03 pm

#58 canuck on 12.23.15 at 5:58 pm
#6 JimH on 12.23.15 at 3:31 pm

“Yet here you are, posting on a blog at mid-day… and after re-balancing your portfolio on the pool deck.”
=====================================

Um… What were you doing in Geography class??? Can you even read a map? Have any idea about time zones, sonny?

The markets open in New York at 7:30 AM here (local time) in sunny and warm Arizona.

The time of my post is “Mid-day”??? you call 3:31 PM “mid-day”? 8 hours AFTER the markets opened?

I suppose you are used to sleeping in til noon?

Sweet Jesus! Smoking Man is dead right! The education systems have failed us miserably!

Hey canuck? you awake here, or is it past your bed-time?
_____________________________________________

Hey Sparky… Your post was at 3:31pm… EST which is the zone used for this blog so that means you posted at 1:31pm your time. If you’re really in Arizona, you’re in the same time zone I live in which is Alberta.
Looks like I just might be awake after all, hey pantload?

#106 Oil vs weed on 12.23.15 at 8:53 pm

Funny that for the supposed “elite”, the “1%” does not even realize that:

We can grow weed probably at more competitive price than produce oil. Hemp oil does not need Keystone.

The medical benefits of weed can have a positive impact on the healthcare budget.

I am still waiting Garth to analyze and chastise the Canadian Oil Dream, that can kill the dollar from Surrey to Etobicoke- and leaves one of the leading G7 country with her pants down, when the rest in the same league is ready to run.

Probably next year? Or we just stick to kicking the dead horse day after day?

#107 ANON on 12.23.15 at 8:57 pm

Hot babes, now that’s the Garth I remember!
Oh, yeah, about the oil thingy and how it intertwines with the system of promissory notes ,bits, bytes, and other stuff floating around, here’s a dude named Roger with an almost accurate explanation. I’ll post the lolcat video a bit later to lift the spirits :)

Merry Christmas!

#108 Patrick on 12.23.15 at 8:57 pm

Richmond BC already has a policy that permits Chinese only signs.

Had a crazy night in vancouver one time. Woke-up the next day at the river rock casino in richmond. Went stumbling around the city for hang-over food and couldn’t read any of the signs. thought I had somehow gotten on a plane to hong kong.

#109 Garthsense Magazine on 12.23.15 at 8:58 pm

No takers yesterday, posted too late. Anyone want to pile on this one?

Share your thoughts. If Garth were to put out a money sense couch potato guide covering the balanced portfolio recommended, what would it look like? Specific funds/stocks/preferreds/reits. Could it all be pulled off via questrade andvsnguard etf’s and yearly rebalancing? Call it the couch Garth (Garth potato?) portfolio. Seriously, it should be a sticky post.

#110 Jeffrey of Saskatoon on 12.23.15 at 8:58 pm

Swift Runner. Wendigo Psychosis.

#111 Drill Baby Drill on 12.23.15 at 9:01 pm

Miss Columbia was robbed. There needs to be an inquiry. I want to be named lead investigator. Ey carumba !!

#112 Want your money on 12.23.15 at 9:07 pm

#102 Chinese Immigrant on 12.23.15 at 8:39 pm
You want our money yet you want us to forget our way of life?

Can’t have it both ways.

—-

Ok, bring in the Chinese Communists already. Let Canada prosper. Maybe we will buy condos in Shanghai or Hong Kong.

#113 Macduff on 12.23.15 at 9:08 pm

Went to see THE BIG SHORT tonight, a must see for blog dogs. Whoever doesn’t believe that a housing crash could never occur in Canada is delusional. Pain is coming in 2016.

#114 45north on 12.23.15 at 9:10 pm

By ‘worst’ you should expect next year to be one of increasing job stress and decreasing credit. I think you know what that means for your house.

it means decreasing price for my house. In Ottawa. Starting today. I mean I’ve been keeping track and asking my neighbours what their house sold for. Up until June prices were increasing. After that I don’t know.

Leo Trollstoy: from your link: No one has yet thanked Mark77 for this post.

Ray Skunk: were you around on this blog two days ago, when the RE board method of counting sales was discredited?

It gets me thinking about the promise of our new government to be data driven and its promise to respond to climate change. I mean if we cannot determine “days on market” how are we to measure the energy output of the sun and the effect of El Niño. Data driven is just a slogan.

#115 cramar on 12.23.15 at 9:16 pm

Lots of economic problems for Canada! BUT, the average Canadian has no worries. They have the perfect hedge—A HOUSE! Since RE is still rising (according to the people who know—RE boards), the average owner in 416, 905, and YVR is hedged!

No worries for 2016! Let the good times roll and pass the weed of wisdom.

#116 pinstripe on 12.23.15 at 9:19 pm

jobs are available in Alberta.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/evictions-business-booming-oil-slump-1.3378567

#117 Drill Baby Drill on 12.23.15 at 9:19 pm

#102
You are full of crap. The official languages that hold legal sway are English and French.

#118 The big shortsight on 12.23.15 at 9:25 pm

#112 Macduff on 12.23.15 at 9:08 pm
Went to see THE BIG SHORT tonight, a must see for blog dogs. Whoever doesn’t believe that a housing crash could never occur in Canada is delusional. Pain is coming in 2016

The big shortsight in this country the oil.
Not covered here.

#119 Warren - the lagging indicator on 12.23.15 at 9:30 pm

I think Garth is right that the deeply entrenched Republican establishment have shifted their focus to Rubio since their other front man Jeb has all but folded. The real conservative candidate should be Ted Cruz but the populist Donald Trump is a real vote getter. This is why the focus of vicious attacks from the left and the Republicans will be on Trump and Cruz here forth. The Republicans would rather have Hillary as prez than Trump or Cruz and this is why she will probably win the election… Or maybe I just do not know what the heck I am talking about.

As an aside,
Hey Garth, will JT2 hold true to his promise to roll back the OAS age requirement to 65 and when will this be announced do you think?

#120 Mark on 12.23.15 at 9:39 pm

“If Garth were to put out a money sense couch potato guide covering the balanced portfolio recommended, what would it look like?”

I suspect it would be a half dozen equity ETFs representing Canada, the USA, and the rest of the world. And a handful of bond ETFs for Canada, the US, and the rest of the world respectively. Maybe a preferred fund. And of course, a little bit in a cash savings account at one’s local bank as a sort of emergency fund so if a medium-size expense came up, he wouldn’t be awoken in the middle of the night looking for advice.

For those who don’t own RE, or are significantly wealthy, probably throw a REIT ETF or two in there as well.

Basically, it would be the “Couch Potato Portfolio”, but a tad bit more sophisticated as the “Portfolio” is relatively narrow in its allocation.

Where the value of someone like Garth is, is in helping someone come to processes for actually accumulating such investments, how to optimize them for tax during the accumulation and de-accumulation phase, and how to optimize the various tax shelters available (and probably not much of a better person for that sort of role than someone who used to run the CRA!). As well as the overall relationship of the investment planning process to business and even life succession/estate planning.

Even successful DIY’ers who have done well with something like the Couch Potato Portfolio would be well served sitting down with someone with Garth’s expertise at some point and going over tax-optimizations for actually using such a portfolio in retirement. Might cost a one-time few thousand in professional/consultation fees if a long-term ‘advisory’ relationship isn’t entered into, but could be well worth it.

#121 Chris on 12.23.15 at 9:47 pm

There is a Chinese immigrant on here today. Well you are not the only one. What is wrong with adding English as well to the signs?

#122 David on 12.23.15 at 9:49 pm

Supposed to be the holiday season and all everyone at coffee this morning talked about was the skyrocketing price cauliflower and the sinking Loonie. Maybe the two are correlated? The Bank of Canada isn’t doing anybody a favour by trashing the Loonie. I told my cranky fellow coffee shop habitues to start growing their own food.

http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/05/19/the-kitchen-garden-goes-high-tech/?_r=1

#123 Yuus bin Haad on 12.23.15 at 9:53 pm

More fun than watching the Cons in their new role as Opposition (one has to feel for them) is the Libs struggling to relearn the art of spin (some of these guys served under Chrétien, for Pete’s sake). Oh hurry Jan 25.

#124 Ron on 12.23.15 at 10:00 pm

Merry Christmas Garth! I enjoy your posts and mostly ignore your posters. But I wish all that come to this site a prosperous 2016.

#125 Leo Trollstoy on 12.23.15 at 10:03 pm

91 Timmy on 12.23.15 at 7:51 pm

He left JT a mess. Brilliant move. The Liberals will be remembered by history as presiding over the collapse of the Canadian economy. Just like Notley in Alberta. CPCs will enjoy the show. I will too. Brilliant moves. Brilliant.

#126 Leo Trollstoy on 12.23.15 at 10:05 pm

#85 Balmuto on 12.23.15 at 7:38 pm

Painful. Not sure how someone can be wrong on gold, oil, CAD/USD, inflation and Toronto real estate all simultaneously. It’s a gift. A real gift.

#127 tundra pete on 12.23.15 at 10:12 pm

That harper government was so goddamned stupid they could have decriminalized weed or legalized or whatever many moons ago. Who gives a crap about pot smokers, they are going to smoke anyways. Just capitalize it. Duhh. Goddamn deficit would be far less than what we have ourselves in right now.

Thanks to Harper and his born again rejects, the Hell’s Angels, Independant Soldiers, Red Scorpions and whatever other lowlife ass lickers have made bundles of cash. They pretty much walked off with the national defecit payment.

At least T2 has the balls to give it back to us instead of lowlife scum spending it on whores and cocaine. Hope he makes some decent laws. If you want to sell dope you are stealing from you and I and suffer the consequences. It seems everywhere I go tgese days I smell skunkweed. Smelks like money to me.

#128 TurnerNation on 12.23.15 at 10:18 pm

#107 Patrick sounds like a west coast Smoking man. Casio misadventures.

For 2016 Tfsa I’m looking at USH.UN – Us housing fund. Yield 6.9%
:-0

#129 IHCTD9 on 12.23.15 at 10:19 pm

#57 Canadian on 12.23.15 at 5:58 pm
#35 Anthony on 12.23.15 at 4:55 pm

Nah. By the time we get through out legalization process California will have legalized it first. And nobody is going to pick a Canadian vacation over a Californian one if they are that desperate to smoke their pot.

Amsterdam + California = Monopoly on drug tourism.

Not that we would want that kind of thing in our country anyway I think. Cigarettes and alcohol attract a criminal element, marijuana won’t be any different.
—————-

Not to mention that if the price on Canadian weed ends up being anything like they charge for smokes and booze here in Ontario, it’ll be 5X more expensive here than it is in Cali.

The whole weed plan T2 is dangling could fall apart just due to boneheaded pricing. It’s not like the local weed supply is expensive or anything. T2 has to undercut the local existing supply chain, somehow I don’t think this is part of the game plan.

#130 Ilona on 12.23.15 at 10:21 pm

There-there: http://www.valuetrend.ca/keiths-rant-some-animals-are-more-equal-than-others :)

#131 Leo Trollstoy on 12.23.15 at 10:21 pm

US economy solid. Canadian economy sucks. Same for each respective currency.

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com//news/economy/so-much-for-canadas-recovery-economy-delivers-tough-pill-as-growth-prospects-fade-into-the-distance

#132 AK in Calgary on 12.23.15 at 10:22 pm

Things looking more and more gloomy in Calgary. Lack of pipelines is hurting Alberta severely. I know because I work in oil and gas industry. Even if price of oil recovers, lack of pipelines will not allow Alberta to export more crude. Oil by rail is just a stop-gap measure.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/evictions-business-booming-oil-slump-1.3378567

#133 Paul on 12.23.15 at 10:23 pm

RE #102

I personally don’t want either!!!

#134 growing gap on 12.23.15 at 10:23 pm

There’s a lot of obsession about interest rates at the moment. For good reasons too, since rates are about half of what they were half a dozen years ago…house prices doubled in that time. No doubt it’s direct correlation.
But, no need to cheer for rate increases anymore since the many future unemployed Canadian can’t buy homes even when rates are negative whatever percent.

#135 IHCTD9 on 12.23.15 at 10:27 pm

#91 Timmy on 12.23.15 at 7:51 pm
Boy That sleaz bag Harper sure left us with a fine mess. Thanks to his mix management our economy is cratering. What was the phrase he used? Oil superpower? Shame on those who were stupid enough to vote for him.
———–

Timmay my man! I’ll look past your belief that Harper controls world commodity prices to ask you just one question:

What was the federal deficit at the time of Harpers departure?

Come on Timmay!! You can do it!!

#136 economictsunami on 12.23.15 at 10:29 pm

Happy Festivus!

Got the aluminum pole up, about to air some grievances; just before our feats of strength are completed.

For the more secular, Stockman…

The Keynesian Recovery Meme Is About To Get Mugged, Part 1:

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/the-keynesian-recovery-meme-is-about-to-get-mugged/

#137 S.Bby on 12.23.15 at 10:31 pm

#102
Then why did the City of Richmond hire this person?

http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2015/12/richmond-sign-inspector-chinese/

#138 Mark on 12.23.15 at 10:33 pm

“Painful. Not sure how someone can be wrong on gold, oil, CAD/USD, inflation and Toronto real estate all simultaneously”

Nice try, but I was right on inflation (practically non-existent) and Toronto real estate (declining). And the views on gold, oil, and CAD/USD were longer-term in nature if you bothered to read the arguments as presented.

Over 2 years into the RE declines and you seem to be in huge denial. Which is unfortunate. Even I closed out my USD$ short, going long USD$, and accepted that, in the short term, I wasn’t going to be right. When will you finally come around (or did you? I think I remember you saying you sold your Toronto RE holding(s) a while back)?

#139 For those about to flop... on 12.23.15 at 10:36 pm

#119 Mark on 12.23.15 at 9:39 pm
“If Garth were to put out a money sense couch potato guide covering the balanced portfolio recommended, what would it look like?”

I suspect it would be a half dozen equity ETFs representing Canada, the USA, and the rest of the world. And a handful of bond ETFs for Canada, the US, and the rest of the world respectively. Maybe a preferred fund. And of course, a little bit in a cash savings account at one’s local bank as a sort of emergency fund so if a medium-size expense came up, he wouldn’t be awoken in the middle of the night looking for advice.

For those who don’t own RE, or are significantly wealthy, probably throw a REIT ETF or two in there as well.

Basically, it would be the “Couch Potato Portfolio”, but a tad bit more sophisticated as the “Portfolio” is relatively narrow in its allocation.

Where the value of someone like Garth is, is in helping someone come to processes for actually accumulating such investments, how to optimize them for tax during the accumulation and de-accumulation phase, and how to optimize the various tax shelters available (and probably not much of a better person for that sort of role than someone who used to run the CRA!). As well as the overall relationship of the investment planning process to business and even life succession/estate planning.

Even successful DIY’ers who have done well with something like the Couch Potato Portfolio would be well served sitting down with someone with Garth’s expertise at some point and going over tax-optimizations for actually using such a portfolio in retirement. Might cost a one-time few thousand in professional/consultation fees if a long-term ‘advisory’ relationship isn’t entered into, but could be well worth it.
//////////////////////////////////////////

Mark,shut up for Hark’s sake!

#140 Mark on 12.23.15 at 10:37 pm

What was the federal deficit at the time of Harpers departure?

At the time of Harper’s departure, the national debt of Canada had risen from $628B (December 31, 2014) to $645B (October 31, 2015). For a difference of $17B.

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/markets/government-securities-auctions/goc-t-bills-and-bonds-outstanding/

Once again, net debt does not equal a budgetary deficit. — Garth

#141 Millmech on 12.23.15 at 10:41 pm

#124
That’s why he is legalizing weed so no one will remember.
#126
I guess by your logic T2 should legalize meth,prostitution,human slavery,cocaine,heroin,why let criminals have the cash when your govt can have it.like the bumper sticker says”don’t deal the government hates competition.

#142 Smoking Man on 12.23.15 at 10:41 pm

#107 Patrick on 12.23.15 at 8:57 pm
Richmond BC already has a policy that permits Chinese only signs.

Had a crazy night in vancouver one time. Woke-up the next day at the river rock casino in richmond. Went stumbling around the city for hang-over food and couldn’t read any of the signs. thought I had somehow gotten on a plane to hong kong.
….

At leased you could walk.

I have no recollection of making it to my side of the bed last night.

AT Seneca yesterday.

My wife found me naked at 1am sleeping in the Jacuzzi no water in it but the jets where on full blast.

Talk about luck. I could have drowned.

Down side, being forced to take a time out from drinking.

Hence, not a lot of posts..Good thing I have my gin in the back yard, or this post would not have happened.

#143 Victor V on 12.23.15 at 10:45 pm

Repo firms work flat out amid oil slump in Alberta

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/evictions-business-booming-oil-slump-1.3378567

#144 IHCTD9 on 12.23.15 at 10:51 pm

#111 Want your money on 12.23.15 at 9:07 pm
#102 Chinese Immigrant on 12.23.15 at 8:39 pm
You want our money yet you want us to forget our way of life?

Can’t have it both ways.

—-

Ok, bring in the Chinese Communists already. Let Canada prosper. Maybe we will buy condos in Shanghai or Hong Kong.

—————-

Won’t work. Every Chinese immigrant I know is broke, and what little they did have they blew on a Benz.

#145 senta on 12.23.15 at 10:57 pm

With Cad$ down so much – I don’t see real estate going down by much outside Alberta and Sask. Foreign money will provide a floor. Not that I have any RE except for my house which is paid for. 15% correction is par for the course.
Thinking of cashing in my US stocks and buying some Cdn. Cdn Dividends are very tax efficient.
Got fired from my corporate job earlier this year. I work as a contractor now with money going into a corporation. Even though I make about half the gross, cash is 90% of what it was. Unreal the amount of tax I was paying. Could have housed and fed a family of six. I have done my duty as a tax payer for 32 years. Now I ready to be tax taker or a tax sucker.

#146 Love my Kia on 12.23.15 at 11:06 pm

6 JimH on 12.23.15 at 3:31 pm

#267 saskatoon on 12.23.15 at 2:43 pm
#247 JimH
“… dude… you don’t even know what quantitative easing is… as previously established… lol”
==============================
No, I’m the one laughing, sasktoon!

You see, we know very well what QE is; It’s you that is way out in the back pasture on that one! But every school of economics now in basic agreement on the subject of how QE actually works!

But enjoy your childish little chuckle!

Yes, sir! I must be the dummy… After all, it is I who sat out on the pool deck this morning here in Southern Arizona, doing a little cozy portfolio re-balancing while soaking up the sun!

While you? Oh, yes… Saskatoon?

“lol” is so right!
***************************************
Good one! (slow hand clap), and posting so early on to boot!

No doubt the kid read it since he hasn’t bothered posting here tonight. You’ve obviously got good game going on!

I also tire of his Ayn Rand ideological rants probably coming from his parents’ basement.

#147 Keith in Calgary on 12.23.15 at 11:22 pm

#60 Canuck………

Yes, I am that same poster. My single vote amongst millions was a gift to my 420 brothers and sisters. Glad to see it wasn’t wasted on a bunch of blue shirted taser toting conservative thugs.

#148 Kenchie on 12.23.15 at 11:25 pm

#102 Chinese Immigrant on 12.23.15 at 8:39 pm
“You want our money yet you want us to forget our way of life?

Can’t have it both ways.

If the majority are OK with Mandarin, so be it. Richmond BC already has a policy that permits Chinese only signs.”

Not everyone wants your money. Actually, Richmond says it “encourages” 50% in English.

Nevertheless, just because the majority of Richmond is Chinese doesn’t mean Richmond should become suburban China. This is Canada, and at the end of the day we are pretty damn nice and liberal people. But don’t push us too far to the limits, because we can become mean relatively quickly.

I wouldn’t be surprised if 2016 saw a lot of vandalism against empty homes suspected to be owned by foreigners.

#149 Kenchie on 12.23.15 at 11:29 pm

#124 Leo Trollstoy on 12.23.15 at 10:03 pm
“91 Timmy on 12.23.15 at 7:51 pm

He left JT a mess. Brilliant move. The Liberals will be remembered by history as presiding over the collapse of the Canadian economy. Just like Notley in Alberta. CPCs will enjoy the show. I will too. Brilliant moves. Brilliant.”

Brilliant, until you realize that it was not intentional…

#150 Love my Kia on 12.23.15 at 11:30 pm

#58 Canuck
Yet here you are, posting on a blog at mid-day… and after re-balancing your portfolio on the pool deck. What a party animal. How does your wife keep her hands off of you??
*************************

Women love money, of course she can’t keep her hands off him!

#151 lala on 12.23.15 at 11:32 pm

My neiborough house for sale today, Eglinton and Spadina, asking for $1,290,000. He was confident about getting the full price but complaining about rogers internet price. Only if he knew im stealing his wifi. Did I say that loud!!!!!

#152 Kenchie on 12.23.15 at 11:37 pm

#143 IHCTD9 on 12.23.15 at 10:51 pm
“Won’t work. Every Chinese immigrant I know is broke, and what little they did have they blew on a Benz.”

Ditto for the children of immigrants too. Some have decent money management skills, but most of my Asian friends don’t.

#153 Teulon on 12.23.15 at 11:49 pm

#74 For those about to flop…
Last time I checked there were no “BC banks” a few credit union bank wannabees maybe. Might be why the TFSA news hasn’t reached that far west.

#154 nacho on 12.24.15 at 12:08 am

Merry Christmas Garth you old dog! Thank you for this blog, thank harper for your honesty and most of all dont change! We need the voice of reason.

#155 Moses71 on 12.24.15 at 12:31 am

In Respects to #81
And ever seen H. on an interview uncut?
What a socially inept dweeb with a dimwitted candor.
No wonder he couldn’t win over Obama et al.
Mr. T won with personality plus, energy and magnetism. For those who say that’s not important, personality components comprise the majority of likes. Sorry, but it’s human votes that’s needed. Not to mention, an unlikeable sort shouldn’t be expected to gain the trust of the necessary Obama votes for the economy either.

#156 Bobs ur uncle on 12.24.15 at 12:48 am

#57 Canadian on 12.23.15 at 5:58 pm
#35 Anthony on 12.23.15 at 4:55 pm

Nah. By the time we get through out legalization process California will have legalized it first. And nobody is going to pick a Canadian vacation over a Californian one if they are that desperate to smoke their pot.

Amsterdam + California = Monopoly on drug tourism.

Not that we would want that kind of thing in our country anyway I think. Cigarettes and alcohol attract a criminal element, marijuana won’t be any different.

***

I was in Jamaica once speaking to a local street vendor. I told him I was from BC, and I might as well have said I was royalty – he said to me “yuh not Canadian, mon, yuh Ja-nadian” he then proceeds to extol the virtues of BC bud. If a Jamaican dude on the street views BC bud that way, I suspect there are plenty of other folks interested in heading to the source of their perceived bliss. Especially with a low CAD dollar. California ain’t cheap.

As to the criminal element – newsflash: they’re already here!

#157 Carousel on 12.24.15 at 12:54 am

To Garth and family + bandit have a Merry Christmas and have a safe happy New Year. See you bloggers next year for another round of yak!!

Love the video of the pup waiting for Santa…. LOL

#158 DON on 12.24.15 at 1:04 am

#68 AB on 12.23.15 at 6:26 pm

Be very happy about legalizing weed – the huge extra revenues that the Government will collect in taxes (as they now do for Liquor) may just save us, or at least help to reduce the huge deficits we are sure to be running!
********************************
It is amazing that BC Bud is losing to California. Regulate, tax revenue just like you said. Hard to believe we are letting this opportunity to replace flailing revenue sources. Organized crime rules the weed business in BC. It is already happening, why not use it for our benefit. The US is already beating us at on own game. We did it for alcohol, tobacco. No pot smoking in public places though. We’ll debate it till its too late and will have to fight for market share against our southern neighbours – it is amazing how a crisis can change perspectives.

#159 cyclist on 12.24.15 at 1:09 am

Merry Christmas garth and blog dogs!

#160 Unhinged Loon on 12.24.15 at 1:11 am

I propose we affectionately refer to our new PM as the “Epic Weedman” or just “Weedman”.

I’m loving the USD/CAD pairing right now, BTW.

#161 DON on 12.24.15 at 1:16 am

#44 Frank on 12.23.15 at 5:15 pm

Employed by an American company in a non-energy sector. I’m not worried.

Living in Vancouver, a city not affected by oil prices. In fact boosted by cheaper exports. So jobs will be safer here than anywhere. Another rate cut? That’ll help real estate here too.

Doom for Canada in 2016. Boom for Vancouver real estate in 2016

**************************

I take it the lower mainland is immune from all the layoffs in the fly-in fly-out oil and gas sector. In the past they could afford to live in Vancouver, gotta wonder if that is slowly slipping away.

#162 YVR immune to oil/gas but... on 12.24.15 at 2:52 am

BC Jobs by Sector, 2012 (BC Stats):

Construction – 205,000 jobs
Manufacturing – 164,000 jobs
Tourism – 127,000 jobs
Finance, Insurance, Real estate and property development – 121,000 jobs
Film, TV and Publishing – 36,000 jobs
Technology – 84,000 jobs
Mining, Oil and Gas < 1% of jobs

Per recent GDP reports, YVR not as safe as would be thought – 3 of 4 top job sectors in negative growth.

If negative or zero growth GDP continue, not even The Flash can save a stalling YVR economy…sorry, could not resist.

#163 Exurban on 12.24.15 at 3:31 am

But with our chief export commodity having lost 40% of its value …

You’re understating your own case. Oil prices peaked in June 2014 at about US$110 for both Brent and West Texas Intermediate. Right now both indexes are just under US$38. So we’re looking at a 65% drop, albeit over 18 months.

#164 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.24.15 at 7:31 am

@#102 Chinese Immigrant
“If the majority are OK with Mandarin, so be it. Richmond BC already has a policy that permits Chinese only signs…..
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I guess China and its pollution wasnt enough of a pull to keep you ?
Apparently they dont teach Canadian Law at the Citizenship school.
There is nothing in the Canadian constitution forbidding “Chinese only” signs in Richmond. Just common sense and courtesy for the country that accepted you with open arms. (See Syrian refugees for explanation)
There is no “policy” in Richmond. Nice try. Just lawyers with sound legal advice.
Thus asian arrogance and reverse racism will prevail. They just wont get any “gwai-low” customers in their shops.
Their loss.

#165 fancy_pants on 12.24.15 at 7:47 am

we know exactly what a lower dollar and lower rates will bring… even higher RE prices to areas not in the oil patch.

Merry Christmas to all.

#166 Ret on 12.24.15 at 8:43 am

The government will get rich selling weed but only if the all powerful gangs and cartels don’t create a huge underground market.

There, and I didn’t even mention the billions of tax dollars lost due to illegal cigarette sales in Ontario over the last 15 years.

If the feds and the province can’t control cigarette sales, they have no chance of controlling the sale of weed.

#167 Dups on 12.24.15 at 9:00 am

No Comment:

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/tis-the-season-indebted-canadians-pull-out-the-plastic/

#168 ole Doberman on 12.24.15 at 9:21 am

Looks like Alberta expected to recover in 2016, sales up 1.3%:

http://calgary.ctvnews.ca/mobile/analysts-expect-rebound-in-alberta-economy-next-year-1.2711445

You’re a funny guy. The ‘expert’ in that report on real estate – Michael Hatch, chief economist with the Canadian Automobile Dealers Association. — Garth

#169 Investx on 12.24.15 at 9:33 am

Another possible rate cut?

So much for following the US rate cuts 93% of the time.

It will happen. — Garth

#170 MF on 12.24.15 at 9:45 am

#81 kilby on 12.23.15 at 7:10 pm

T2 is the embarrassment.

“Other countries” are just taking advantage of us.

Harper knew who our friends were and who our enemies were.

Being nice does not mean anything on the world stage. Wake up.

MF

#171 The Other Chris on 12.24.15 at 9:49 am

Merry Christmas Garth (and all the posters too)!

Thanks for running this forum for the motley crew to speak their minds. So refreshing. Best wishes for the new year.

#172 Angela on 12.24.15 at 9:52 am

Merry Christmas Garth and thank you for your sage advice, but even more, thank you for being the wittiest person in Canada!

#173 WUL on 12.24.15 at 9:57 am

The Missus returns from her shopping for Christmas dinner provisions here in Cowtown. Not available – cranberries (thanks Pitt Meadows, B.C.), beets and rutabaga. Beef, produced on the outskirts of the Stampede City is beyond our budgetary reach.

Like a food store in Moscow.

Sadly, for me, Brussels Sprouts are still available. Yucchh.

#174 IHCTD9 on 12.24.15 at 10:12 am

#68 AB on 12.23.15 at 6:26 pm
Be very happy about legalizing weed – the huge extra revenues that the Government will collect in taxes (as they now do for Liquor) may just save us, or at least help to reduce the huge deficits we are sure to be running!

—————

I’d hold back any predictions on huge revenues until we see a plan from the Libs. It is entirely possible that the sale of weed in Canada could end up being revenue neutral. Regulating and policing the “moonshiners” Canadian style could inhale billions. I don’t think folks are going to dig up the patch out back so they can give 10X the cost to the government for the same product.

Look at what Ontario did with beer in grocery stores, total waste of time and effort that gives Ontarians absolutely nothing they didn’t already have.

Remember, Weed grows anywhere, and easily – nothing like making beer and liquor.

I can easily see this one, like so many other government run enterprises, costing more to run than it brings in…

FWIW, even if it gets off the ground there won’t be Billions in revenue to make any real dent in the deficit. The largest customer base will probably (ironically) be millennials, who are broke, buried in debt, and will be suffering under the highest costs of living ever seen in Canada over the coming decade.

#175 johnny on 12.24.15 at 10:24 am

Wow the US has moved interest rates from ZERO to ZERO.25..that has got to be a sign that there economy is just smoking hot. And it took them over 6 months to have the guts to raise it a whopping .25 percent. I mean Garth that US economy must be postitively humming with interest rates at ZERO for 8 years and such deliberation to move it up 0.25 percentage points.
My prediction..zero or one more rate hike..then the Fed will back off as their economy clearly sputters. Because we all know the US and global economy has been juiced by near zero interest rates and money printign for years.

The process you and other America-haters said would never begin, has begun. Suck it up. — Garth

#176 noel on 12.24.15 at 10:27 am

Its silly to casually dismiss legalization. Marijuana sales in Canada are a multi-billion dollar industry, and full legalization, if done correctly, will be a rich source of tax revenue.

It will also be a great opportunity for investors:

http://business.financialpost.com/news/agriculture/canadian-marijuana-stocks-jump-as-liberal-wins-signals-legalization-on-the-table

This doesn’t even take into consideration the money saved by not wasting police resources (literally billions of dollars a year), or the social justice issues.

You are doing a disservice to your readers by not taking this issue seriously.

I’m serious. It’s a questionable move at a time when we have such consequential issues to deal with. — Garth

#177 Darryl on 12.24.15 at 10:28 am

#163 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.24.15 at 7:31 am

@#102 Chinese Immigrant
“If the majority are OK with Mandarin, so be it. Richmond BC already has a policy that permits Chinese only signs…..
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I guess China and its pollution wasnt enough of a pull to keep you ?
Apparently they dont teach Canadian Law at the Citizenship school.
There is nothing in the Canadian constitution forbidding “Chinese only” signs in Richmond. Just common sense and courtesy for the country that accepted you with open arms. (See Syrian refugees for explanation)
There is no “policy” in Richmond. Nice try. Just lawyers with sound legal advice.
Thus asian arrogance and reverse racism will prevail. They just wont get any “gwai-low” customers in their shops.
Their loss.
—————————————————————

I would assume that a Strata meeting would be considered a business meeting . I would also assume that by Canadian law , the meetings would have to be held in one of the two official languages.

At least they should provide an interpreter . Seems very inconsiderate and probably illegal .

#178 jess on 12.24.15 at 10:29 am

RBS Supervisor Pleads Guilty to Conspiracy to Commit Multi-Million-Dollar Securities Fraud
U.S. Attorney’s Office December 21, 2015

District of Connecticut (203) 821-3700

…”he supervised traded fixed income investment securities such as residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and collateralized loan obligations (CLOs). In pleading guilty, SIEGEL admitted that he and others conspired to increase RBS’s profits on CLO and RMBS bond trades at the expense of customers. As part of the scheme, SIEGEL and his co-conspirators made misrepresentations to induce buying customers to pay inflated prices and selling customers to accept deflated prices for bonds, all to benefit RBS.

The conspiracy was perpetrated in two ways. In certain transactions, SIEGEL and his co-conspirators misrepresented the seller’s asking price to the buyer (or vice versa), keeping the difference between the price paid by the buyer and the price paid to the seller for RBS. In other transactions, SIEGEL and his co-conspirators misrepresented to the buyer that bonds held in RBS’s inventory were being offered for sale by a fictitious third-party seller, which allowed RBS to charge the buyer an extra, unearned commission….”

https://www.fbi.gov/newhaven/press-releases/2015/rbs-supervisor-pleads-guilty-to-conspiracy-to-commit-multi-million-dollar-securities-fraud

#179 Sean on 12.24.15 at 10:30 am

You guys are funny. We are in this mess because of the Cons. The policy of the cons are generally what get us into deep messes. It’ll take some time to get out but we will be better off in the future. Keep counting your individual pennies to infinity . The US was run into the ground by Bush and has taken time to get to where it is now, stronger and growing. We will be better off in the future because of progressive ideas, not the sad, bitter, debt ridden way the Cons have pushed on us.

#180 onpar on 12.24.15 at 10:42 am

Merry Christmas Garth!
I’m not sure why you would lament the legalization and taxation of pot. It makes perfect sense and will benefit our society in many ways. I would even say people who don’t see it that way are the ones with their head in the sand. Who is the ostrich now? :)

Just what we need. Another legal way to become impaired and addicted. Genius thinking. — Garth

#181 TurnerNation on 12.24.15 at 11:02 am

Years of Kommunist programing has taken its toll on Kanada. Lots of emailed greetings at work this time of year from vendors and suppliers. Only from overseas are they allowed to call this holiday by its name. Over here it’s been Xed out to Xmas or watery lisped greetings of yuletide cheer or other indeterminate nonsense from HR departments.

Why is this the only holiday which is banned by name? What are they so scared of. Ask this and you’ll see. We must be broken. Trust and worship the State and its power arms – those serving them in uniformed blindness -only.

#182 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.24.15 at 11:04 am

# 172
Like a food store in Moscow.
———————–
Funny.
Just what I was thinking when I observed the 50 + lineup at Starbucks in Richmond Center.
Maybe the commies will win after all.

#183 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.24.15 at 11:06 am

As for the Mandarin/English controversy in Richmond:
All pertinent laws are provincial, therefore not subject to the Constitution.

#184 Leo Trollstoy on 12.24.15 at 11:18 am

Merry Christmas Gartho. All the best to you and your family.

#185 Doug in London on 12.24.15 at 11:26 am

So for 2015 the Toronto market has shed about 11%, which is a big deal since 70% of Canadian investors have only maple in their portfolios.
————————————————————-
Maybe so, but recently a nice Christmas rally has been going on. That’s good news for anyone who bought into the Black Friday sales that were going on until recently.

#186 For those about to flop... on 12.24.15 at 11:38 am

#152 Teulon on 12.23.15 at 11:49 pm
#74 For those about to flop…
Last time I checked there were no “BC banks” a few credit union bank wannabees maybe. Might be why the TFSA news hasn’t reached that far west.

////////////////////////////////
You misunderstood …fill in the blanks buddy –bc!

#187 WUL on 12.24.15 at 11:39 am

Hon. GT:

If I may.

It strikes me that you have a high degree of O&G literacy. Add the cowboy boots and you would blend right in on Stephen Avenue Mall. I suppose that the rise of the importance of petroleum and natural gas to our pathetic economy necessitated that.

Do you perceive that there has been a rise in that knowledge ad mari usque ad mare generally and that we have moved beyond kvetching about blue-eyed Sheikhs and pump prices outside of the patch.

#188 Mike in Edm on 12.24.15 at 11:39 am

#167 ole Doberman on 12.24.15 at 9:21 am
Looks like Alberta expected to recover in 2016, sales up 1.3%:

http://calgary.ctvnews.ca/mobile/analysts-expect-rebound-in-alberta-economy-next-year-1.2711445

You’re a funny guy. The ‘expert’ in that report on real estate – Michael Hatch, chief economist with the Canadian Automobile Dealers Association. — Garth
*****************************************
If you want to keep your eye on a good indicator of the AB economy, just watch the Autocanada stock. They are primarily based out of Alberta and their stock is worth less than half now compared to this time last year

#189 WUL on 12.24.15 at 11:55 am

Just one more comment and I will quit pestering youse folks.

Re the exclusive use of Mandarin at a condo board meeting, off the top of my head (code for uninformed) it strikes me that absent an express provision about language use in condo legislation or the bylaws of the condo corp., you are essentially a private club on that point.

Maybe there is something in Roberts Rules of Order.

Go ahead, join a private golf club and take the dress code before a human rights commission. Good luck.

#190 paul on 12.24.15 at 12:00 pm

#175 noel on 12.24.15 at 10:27 am

Its silly to casually dismiss legalization. Marijuana sales in Canada are a multi-billion dollar industry, and full legalization, if done correctly, will be a rich source of tax revenue.

It will also be a great opportunity for investors:

http://business.financialpost.com/news/agriculture/canadian-marijuana-stocks-jump-as-liberal-wins-signals-legalization-on-the-table

This doesn’t even take into consideration the money saved by not wasting police resources (literally billions of dollars a year), or the social justice issues.

You are doing a disservice to your readers by not taking this issue seriously.

I’m serious. It’s a questionable move at a time when we have such consequential issues to deal with. — Garth
———————————————————-Noel
Legalization is a social injustice .
If you think smoking weed is helpful just look around.
I feel bad for young people walking around in a haze as life passes them by.

#191 paul on 12.24.15 at 12:08 pm

#68 AB on 12.23.15 at 6:26 pm
Be very happy about legalizing weed – the huge extra revenues that the Government will collect in taxes (as they now do for Liquor) may just save us, or at least help to reduce the huge deficits we are sure to be running.
———————————————————-
Gee’s The Millennials thought they could jusy grow all they wanted.You mean the Government gets to control it and charge more then they pay now.
Suckers

#192 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 12.24.15 at 12:16 pm

It is CMHC that is to blame for the high real estate prices probably in collusion with the banks. All my transactions in real estate demanded a 25% downpayment or I would have to pay up for the CMHC insurance. What happened? How the hell did the necessary downpayment ever get down to 5%? This is the crux of the problem I believe. Low in terse rates just exacerbated the problem.

#193 IHCTD9 on 12.24.15 at 12:23 pm

#175 noel on 12.24.15 at 10:27 am

…if done correctly..

————

IF.

It will probably be done differently from province to province, all levels of government will want their slice, the regulations governing the industry will be in a perpetual state of flux with every change in government.

There sure won’t be any reduction in required Police services, but there will be a massive bureaucracy initiated to regulate and legislate the industry.

#194 pinstripe on 12.24.15 at 12:29 pm

The policies established many years ago by the AB PC and Fed CPC are showing the consequence.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/hard-times-for-grande-cache-as-mine-layoffs-take-effect-1.3377082

#195 pinstripe on 12.24.15 at 12:33 pm

2015 has been an Excellent year so far.

In AB the PCs were dumped.

In Canada the CPC were dumped.

Justin and Rachel are the BEST Choice available at the time.

That may speak volumes about Canadians. — Garth

#196 Tom Black on 12.24.15 at 12:39 pm

Merry Christmas one & all

Nothing but anger and resentment on the blog today, quite sad. Dogs are starting to turn on one another. No doubt many of you are badly exposed to everything that’s discussed on the blog. Try to place your fears aside, enjoy the next few days as a child does, life is so very short you weren’t born to suffer. You’ve made some bad choices don’t let them define the rest of your life! In the New Year you’ve some though choices to make, squirrel away some hard cash, ditch the debt, rent a house and start living & enjoying life once more.. Everything you once dreamed of having or have had will come back to you, it will take time to re-invent but it’s very possible. Every human being has the potential to be amazing, just lift your head and impower yourself.

Merry Christmas 2015

#197 waiting on the westcoast on 12.24.15 at 12:40 pm

#144 senta on 12.23.15 at 10:57 pm says… “With Cad$ down so much – I don’t see real estate going down by much outside Alberta and Sask. Foreign money will provide a floor.”

A lot of Canadian money flowed into Phoenix during the GFC. Didn’t put much of a floor on prices there…

#198 MF on 12.24.15 at 12:43 pm

#179 onpar on 12.24.15 at 10:42 am

Disagree. I saw my friends who started smoking pot in high school slowly become more and more addicted. They were the ones that dropped out of school, had unhealthy relationships, had the unhealthiest behaviors in general, and almost all went on to “try” other drugs.

This was an election ploy to attract the losers of society. Seems to have worked.

MF

#199 MF on 12.24.15 at 12:46 pm

#189 paul on 12.24.15 at 12:00 pm

Indeed. Pot smokers are always younger lazy losers who have watched too many snoop dogg vids. By the age of 25 that phase should be done (along with the rebellion phase). If it hasn’t there is something wrong with the development.

MF

#200 4 AM Sunrise on 12.24.15 at 12:59 pm

I had an extended discussion about this with a good friend. I, too, believed that it would be “their loss” if they did not expand their customer base by putting up English signs. What money-loving business owner wouldn’t want a happy customer to tell their friends, who tell their friends, and bring in more business? But here’s the dollars-and-cents truth: there is no loss. They’ve identified their target market. They get maximum ROI on their efforts by doing business solely with this market. They have no need to put in extra effort to attract non-Chinese customers for what will be a lower rate of return.

On top of this, people from China are naturally xenophobic. (I said “xenophobic”, not “racist”. Hear me out on this, Garth.) For example: I am Chinese, but in China, some (not all) hotel staff get snippy with me when I show them my ID because it’s in English. I would use my Chinese name if I could, but I don’t have Chinese ID. Or sometimes a clerk finds an excuse to not serve me and pass me on to the sucker next to them. It’s not racism…it’s a kind of xenophobic laziness.

The arrogance and reverse racism will continue until we do a 180 and lay down some Quebec-style language laws.

#163 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.24.15 at 7:31 am

Thus asian arrogance and reverse racism will prevail. They just wont get any “gwai-low” customers in their shops.
Their loss.

#201 BS on 12.24.15 at 1:03 pm

on 12.24.15 at 2:52 am
BC Jobs by Sector, 2012 (BC Stats):

Construction – 205,000 jobs
Manufacturing – 164,000 jobs
Tourism – 127,000 jobs
Finance, Insurance, Real estate and property development – 121,000 jobs
Film, TV and Publishing – 36,000 jobs
Technology – 84,000 jobs
Mining, Oil and Gas < 1% of jobs

Per recent GDP reports, YVR not as safe as would be thought – 3 of 4 top job sectors in negative growth.

If negative or zero growth GDP continue, not even The Flash can save a stalling YVR economy…sorry, could not resist.

Note that over 66% of those job categories are pretty much linked to RE in BC. That includes manufacturing. 80% of the manufacturing in BC is making windows, doors, cabinets, trusses, pre-cast concrete, etc. for houses and condos.

Construction – 205,000 jobs
Manufacturing – 164,000 jobs
Finance, Insurance, Real estate and property development – 121,000 jobs

The above is 490,000 out of 737,000 jobs in BC. BC’s RE industry is far larger than oil & gas is to Alberta where there are only about 133,000 estimated jobs in the industry.

Once RE slows in BC, unemployment will be massive.

#202 Keith in Calgary on 12.24.15 at 1:04 pm

#189 Paul said……………”Legalization is a social injustice. If you think smoking weed is helpful just look around. I feel bad for young people walking around in a haze as life passes them by.”

Spoken while he sits in his Lazy Boy recliner nursing a glass of scotch and smoking a Cuban cigar.

;<p

————————–

I've been to Colorado, Oregon, Washington State and Alaska…..all fours states have legalized weed, and every single piece of fear mongering from the hypocrites hasn't come to fruition.

Go figure.

In fact, these states are now reaping a taxation bounty and legal prices have dropped dramatically, based upon what it used to cost when you bought it from your neighbour "illegally". When you walk around the streets of their big cities it is no different than it was before legalization…….of course, many of these hypocrites have never been anywhere outside of their province, let alone Canada…..yet they are experts.

#203 young & foolish on 12.24.15 at 1:06 pm

2015 and probably the next two years begs the question: can you get enough cash flow return from financial assets alone without eating down your capital?

Fools want to know!

#204 BS on 12.24.15 at 1:07 pm

2015 has been an Excellent year so far.

In AB the PCs were dumped.

In Canada the CPC were dumped.

Justin and Rachel are the BEST Choice available at the time.

2015 may have been an excellent year. 2016, 2017 and 2018 when the new left policies come into place not so much.

#205 For those about to flop... on 12.24.15 at 1:25 pm

Not much happening this morning so I’ll put this one up.

What happens first?

A)Oil hits $100 a barrel.

B) Can dollar back at par with USD

C) Interest rates hit 3%

#206 MF on 12.24.15 at 1:29 pm

#154 Moses71 on 12.24.15 at 12:31 am

Ah no. T2 won because people wanted Harper out. Not because he is some Canadian JFK. Definitely a wannabe though.

Funny watching the media try and try to push this guy given his total lack of charisma and lack of leadership qualities to get us to “like” him.

Hilarious.

MF

#207 Drill Baby Drill on 12.24.15 at 1:34 pm

#194 Pinstripe
What a Pinhead statement. Please read yesterday’s Don Braid column in the Calgary Herald on the Notley government burn-out due to inexperience and socialism flying in the face of economic reality.

#208 pinstripe on 12.24.15 at 1:48 pm

That may speak volumes about Canadians. — Garth

———————————————————–

Yep, many Canadians said “enough is ENOUH” to corruption and bribes. It was time to give someone else a chance because their corruption and bribes will be less to start. When they get too smart, the time will be right to kick them out too. Everything has a cycle. EVERYTHING.

#209 MF on 12.24.15 at 1:52 pm

Ah Miss ColOmbia should have won. My filipina GF would kill me if she read this but it’s true.

Miss Colombia was hotter and more charming.

Plus miss Phillipines is only half filipina (other half is German). I find full filipinas much more beautiful.

MF

#210 OXI in GREECE on 12.24.15 at 1:54 pm

Snowing here on the “Global Warming” wet cold coast. Let’s see how much press this gets…..my prediction is of course ZERO.

http://www.judicialwatch.org/press-room/press-releases/judicial-watch-sues-for-documents-withheld-from-congress-in-new-climate-data-scandal/

#211 pinstripe on 12.24.15 at 1:54 pm

#194 Pinstripe
What a Pinhead statement. Please read yesterday’s Don Braid column in the Calgary Herald on the Notley government burn-out due to inexperience and socialism flying in the face of economic reality.

————————————————————-

Yep, that is Dons opinion and that is expected.

and my opinion is that the AB PCs have a lot of experience in corruption and bribes. today AB is getting the first hand experience from their policies.

OTOH, do you believe anything and everything in any paper column?

#212 pinstripe on 12.24.15 at 2:03 pm

203 BS on 12.24.15 at 1:07 pm

2015 may have been an excellent year. 2016, 2017 and 2018 when the new left policies come into place not so much.

—————————————————————–

Not so fast.

FYI. in a bureaucracy it takes a minimum of 3-4 years to see the impact of a policy. The policies set today will start showing their full impact in 4 – 5 years.

2016, 2017, and 2018 will have a lot of linkage to the previous govt policies. 2019 will be another story.

#213 Aggregator on 12.24.15 at 2:06 pm

#191 How the hell did the necessary downpayment ever get down to 5%?

To answer that question you have to go back decades and understand the relationship between CMHC and the Housing and Urban Development Association of Canada (HUDAC), know today as Canadian Home Builders Association (CHBA), who are the biggest lobbyists and subsidized corporations of CMHC's housing affordability programs.

(August 1978) Fact Sheet on Housing and Development Association of Canada – HUDAC (PDF)

Over the years HUDAC has been highly successful in its legislative presentations. This is particularly true of those representation involving modification or innovations which resulted in more Canadians being able to purchase housing or rent better accommodation.

The following achievements began as Association recommendations to Government:

– Removal of NHA ceiling.
-Amortization period extended from 35 to 40 years.
-Mortgage insurance fees reduced by 50%
-Loan rations increased resulting in lower down payments.
-Loan on existing house broadened to include, in addition to purchase, improvement and alterations.
-Five year roll-over mortgage.
-Considering 50% of wife's salaried income when computing gross debt service ratio, subsequently amended further to income 100% of wife's income.
-Increasing maximum loans on apartment housing units.
-Agreeing to issue undertakings to insure or to make loans on houses where work has progressed from the first floor or joist stage.
-Reduction of sales tax on building materials.
-$500 grant as rebate or portion of sales tax.
-Improvement in terms and qualifications related to the grant.
-Removal of restrictions on high ratio loans insured by private mortgage insurers.
-Reduction of capital cost allowances from other income for new multiple rental units.
-Extension of AHOP to include private lenders in program.
-Extension of limited dividend type programs.

Fast forward to today where CMHC and friends have managed to put Canada's sovereignty behind the entire housing market through its Canada Mortgage Bond and NHA MBS program, and legislative changes to act as a chartered bank allowing direct reverse repurchase agreements with the big banks, aka backdoor bailout programs. Not to mention the Bank of Canada's recent changes to allow banks to pledge/swap high-grade mortgage bonds and securities as repo collateral, which allows them to free-up capital in order to issue even more mortgages. This is what's unofficially know as window guidance, where a central bank accommodates and orders banks to make a certain amount of loans to fulfill its quota.

Ultimately what this means is no matter what happens to Canada's housing market, it is 100% guaranteed by law to be bailed out with your money, which in the end means further currency devaluation and chronic job losses.

Watch the Princes of the Yen doc on YouTube. That should explain what likely happens next.

#214 MF on 12.24.15 at 2:08 pm

No.

Many Canadians voted T2 because they wanted to smoke more weed and are jealous of people that make more money they they do.

Garth is right. Just showed how low brow our collective conscience is here.

Well done Canada (extreme sarcasm).

MF

#215 MF on 12.24.15 at 2:10 pm

#207 pinstripe on 12.24.15 at 1:48 pm

Last message was for pinstripe #207

#216 cramar on 12.24.15 at 2:18 pm

179 onpar on 12.24.15 at 10:42 am
Merry Christmas Garth!
I’m not sure why you would lament the legalization and taxation of pot. It makes perfect sense and will benefit our society in many ways. I would even say people who don’t see it that way are the ones with their head in the sand. Who is the ostrich now? :)

Just what we need. Another legal way to become impaired and addicted. Genius thinking. — Garth

——————–

Added to what Garth stated, there are also known medical effects from habitually smoking marijuana, such as weakened immune system, respiratory problems, and brain function/mental health issues. There will be hidden consequences of the Feds legalizing pot. The unintended consequences would be passed on to the Provinces since they are the ones responsible for providing health care. Down the pipe it will be a matter of the Feds getting more income and the Provinces bearing the financial fallout.

Genius thinking indeed!

#217 maxx on 12.24.15 at 2:28 pm

Maybe the source of true greatness is love and concern for the less fortunate.

A very happy Christmas Garth, to you and your loved ones and a wonderful and prosperous 2016.

Please give Bandit an extra Christmas treat.

#218 Victor V on 12.24.15 at 2:40 pm

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/average-us-30-mortgage-slips-3-96-pct-170022281.html

WASHINGTON – What Fed rate hike?

One week after the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates slightly from record lows, the average on a 30-year fixed mortgage went the other way: It dipped to 3.96 per cent this week from 3.97 per cent last week, mortgage giant Freddie Mac said Thursday.

The drop is a reminder that the Fed has only an indirect effect on long-term mortgage rates, which more closely track the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury. And that yield, in turn, tends to stay down as long as inflation remains low and investors keep buying Treasurys. The 10-year Treasury yield has declined slightly since the Fed’s hike last week.

“The Fed raising short-term rates by itself doesn’t have a very profound effect on mortgage rates,” said Sean Becketti, Freddie Mac’s chief economist.

#219 Victor V on 12.24.15 at 2:44 pm

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/bank-of-canadas-rate-cuts-validated-but-market-still-wary-of-stephen-polozs-style

Markets are currently pricing in an 18 per cent likelihood of a [Bank of Canada] cut in January and closer to 50 per cent by mid-year.

Poloz told Reuters he was cautiously optimistic about 2016, adding it was pointless to try and halt a slide in the Canadian dollar.

#220 OXI in GREECE on 12.24.15 at 3:22 pm

#201 Keith in Calgary on 12.24.15 at 1:04 pm
#189 Paul said……………”Legalization is a social injustice. If you think smoking weed is helpful just look around. I feel bad for young people walking around in a haze as life passes them by.”

Spoken while he sits in his Lazy Boy recliner nursing a glass of scotch and smoking a Cuban cigar.

;>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Anyone who says weed is bad is either:

1. A booze salesman who works on commission
2. A defense contractor who works on commission
3. A liberal social bozo who only knows how to read one side of an argument and has never studied the death/harm rates of drinkers vs tokers……

#221 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.24.15 at 3:25 pm

@#199 4am sunrise
““xenophobic”, not “racist”….. Or sometimes a clerk finds an excuse to not serve me and pass me on to the sucker next to them. It’s not racism…it’s a kind of xenophobic laziness.”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Perhaps you should review the definition of “phobia” its an irrational fear . Xenophobia is an irrational fear of foreigners.
Racism comes in many forms.
I doubt a person who refuses to post a bilingual sign or serve you in english is scared of you. They just dont give 2 fiddlers farts. OR they cant speak the language.
Sad when one considers how that will limit their options in other areas of the Lower Mainland or Canada( they country THEY chose to adopt).
Either way, I dont care.
I work in Richmond sometimes and have refused to buy anything in shops that ignore the english language. They have no idea how much business hasnt walked through their doors.
And judging the amount of times I’ve seen asian gamblers 6 deep around a casino table pushing and shoving………..they LIVE for money.
No gweilo customers……..Their loss, not mine…
C’est la vie.

#222 cynically on 12.24.15 at 3:26 pm

#174 johnny, you and the other American-haters are why Canada will never make it on the world stage by itself. Be thankful you live next door to the US with all its faults because it is all there is keeping this country from falling to sleep. It is an active “go-getting” country, something we are not but as their neighbour and closest friend we are included in many world meetings that normally we might not qualify for based on our world importance. The “mother country” helps somewhat too. They are the biggest importer of our goods and most importantly give our “snowbirds” a warm place to go in winter(joke) so don’t rock the boat too often.

#223 pinstripe on 12.24.15 at 3:36 pm

The commentary on this blog in 2015 emphasized the importance to stay out of debt. WHY?

How many countries in the world are debt free?

How many provinces in Canada are debt free?

How many municipalities in Canada are debt free?

How many cities, towns, and villages are debt free?

How many people are debt free?

Why is QE a failed experiment?

#224 Frank on 12.24.15 at 3:38 pm

Just what we need. Another legal way to become impaired and addicted. Genius thinking. — Garth

Don’t advertise your ignorance. Marijuana shows no clinical addictive qualities. In terms of harm to society the giant problem we have right now is prescription meds of course a lot of the push back is coming from the industry which makes a lot of money off it. Personally I’d rather see more of those people smoking joints than popping Xanax or Oxy.

#225 Leo Trollstoy on 12.24.15 at 3:45 pm

#65 Alvina Knows on 12.23.15 at 6:16 pm

I am sure that if some of those posters weren’t permanently banned a lot of those posts would be deleted.

It is, however, a good reference for how wrong the unsophisticates can be.

We have not seen an interpretation of the COT charts in ‘q uite a while.

I completely agree. Those RFD posts have immortalized how wrong these people have been and continue to be. Some people learn, others continue to make the same mistakes repeatedly. I would say that we never really saw an interpretation of the COT charts back in 2014 either. At least not a correct interpretation haha

#226 Leo Trollstoy on 12.24.15 at 3:48 pm

Leo Trollstoy: from your link: No one has yet thanked Mark77 for this post.

That’s a good point. I would like to thank the posters of the following below, for their completely incorrect predictions and for showing us how to avoid being bad investors. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you and hopefully you don’t make the same mistakes about the CAD/USD going forward.

I believe the CAD$ is on its way up soon, personally, in response to this deflation and an associated credit contraction. So wouldn’t worry too much about the foreign imported goods being much of a factor. USD$ strength is temporary at best.
http://forums.redflagdeals.com/deflation-1418406/#post17933797

Might a more meaningful turnaround in the CAD/USD pair be around the corner? Past week or two have been awfully stable. So much for the whole idea that we were going back to 80 cents or whatever the gloom and doomers were claiming, based on some ill-thought out idea of ‘fundamentals’ (or worse, relying upon fundamentally flawed things like hamburger prices!).
http://forums.redflagdeals.com/canadian-dollar-its-ups-downs-1442859/2/#post18314660

I wouldn’t view what’s happening as anything but short-term cyclical weakness. And of course, a great buying opportunity in the CAD$, and a great shorting opportunity for USD$ stuff. Take out some loans in USD$, and pay them back with more valuable CAD$ in the not-so-distant future.
http://forums.redflagdeals.com/hot-deal-canadian-dollar-loonie-sale-1434335/#post18149278

#227 Bestthingaboutbigotsiswatchingthemlose on 12.24.15 at 3:55 pm

“Indeed. Pot smokers are always younger lazy losers who have watched too many snoop dogg vids. By the age of 25 that phase should be done (along with the rebellion phase). If it hasn’t there is something wrong with the development.”

Simple minds draw such simple conclusions.

It’s possible to enjoy pot and not become a ‘loser’. It’s possible to try pot and give it up. It’s possible to never touch the stuff and live in your parents basement until they die.

You cannot ban the population into being ‘better’ any more than you can tax them into riches.

Your narrow minded bias will stop being government policy before you die. This will give you the opportunity to observe how wrong you were. It happens all the time but it never gets old.

Take your pot hate to the KKK rally and chant about how gay marriage will destroy Canada.

In fact, you’re on it now, right? Totally harmless. — Garth

#228 Leo Trollstoy on 12.24.15 at 4:00 pm

In addition to thinking that the CAD was going to go up in the short term, this poor investor thought that Barrick Gold Corp would also go up in the short term. Only a fool would think that. I think some people are born to be bad investors.

It was $40 5 years ago. I’m looking at $60-$70 by year end. Current pricing is basically giving the company away.
http://forums.redflagdeals.com/barrick-gold-corp-1256989/2/#post16177787

Will this be a $100 stock by Christmas? H*ll no. But hold it for the next 5 years, and I think the chances are fairly good. Even if gold prices don’t appreciate much.
http://forums.redflagdeals.com/barrick-gold-corp-1256989/#post15747492

And what is Barrick Gold Corp valued at today?

Barrick’s enterprise value (equity + debt) not be approaching $100B? Instead of what, ~$25-$30B today? The firm is trading at dramatically less than the replacement cost of its assets. Remember the wise Warren Buffet who said that he wants to buy companies at dimes and nickels on the dollar — that’s what you’re doing when you buy many of the gold miners these days whose assets have not appreciated to reflect the reality of replacement cost appreciation.
http://forums.redflagdeals.com/gold-bubble-bursts-1431262/7/#post18110968

And this poster uses the Dow:Gold ratio to value gold. I think the poster might be 8 years old. Talk about bad decision-making. Anybody know what the Dow:Gold ratio says that gold is worth now going into 2016?

If you go by the Dow:Gold ratio, we’re looking at more than $16,000/ounce today (although the Dow probably will end up falling). If you look at the ratio between outstanding US treasury debt and the price of gold, the price could be in excess of $20k. If you look at the fact that less than 1% of the world’s investible assets are currently in gold/gold equities, and the historic peak has been around 20% — that could mean gold at roughly 20X today’s prices, so $24,000/ounce.
http://forums.redflagdeals.com/gold-bubble-bursts-1431262/#post18103199

If there is a handbook on what NOT to do. I think these posters have written it.

#229 Lorne on 12.24.15 at 4:09 pm

#215 cramar
179 onpar on 12.24.15 at 10:42 am
Merry Christmas Garth!
I’m not sure why you would lament the legalization and taxation of pot. It makes perfect sense and will benefit our society in many ways. I would even say people who don’t see it that way are the ones with their head in the sand. Who is the ostrich now? :)

Just what we need. Another legal way to become impaired and addicted. Genius thinking. — Garth

——————–

Added to what Garth stated, there are also known medical effects from habitually smoking marijuana, such as weakened immune system, respiratory problems, and brain function/mental health issues. There will be hidden consequences of the Feds legalizing pot. The unintended consequences would be passed on to the Provinces since they are the ones responsible for providing health care. Down the pipe it will be a matter of the Feds getting more income and the Provinces bearing the financial fallout.

Genius thinking indeed!

…………..
Oh, you mean just like we do for all those who smoke tobacco and drink alcohol in our society??

That’s the point. Why add another to society? — Garth

#230 jess on 12.24.15 at 4:16 pm

CFTC alleged DRW manipulated the market

“banging the close”
http://www.efinancialnews.com/story/2015-12-24/cftc-faces-fightback-from-drw-investments?mod=home-top

#231 Timing is Everything on 12.24.15 at 4:23 pm

#62 Brian

You get three guesses…and the first two don’t count.

Correct!—> ‘Homemakers’

http://tinyurl.com/k8bqqdu
—————————————————–
Another legal way to become impaired and addicted. Genius thinking. — Garth

That’s enough Scotch, Garth. Put the bottle back in your liquor cabinet.

http://tinyurl.com/p75lsa5

#232 canuck on 12.24.15 at 4:26 pm

207 pinstripe on 12.24.15 at 1:48 pm

That may speak volumes about Canadians. — Garth

———————————————————–

Yep, many Canadians said “enough is ENOUH” to corruption and bribes. It was time to give someone else a chance because their corruption and bribes will be less to start. When they get too smart, the time will be right to kick them out too. Everything has a cycle. EVERYTHING.
_____________________________________________

Sooooo, where are you at in your cycle?

#233 Frank on 12.24.15 at 4:42 pm

If negative or zero growth GDP continue, not even The Flash can save a stalling YVR economy…sorry, could not resist.

Localized industry, what’s going to slow it down here?

Oh, you mean just like we do for all those who smoke tobacco and drink alcohol in our society??

That’s the point. Why add another to society? — Garth

Billions of dollars in tax revenue and respect for the freedom of the majority of our citizens who responsibly enjoy a little vice now and then.

If you’re concerned with the morality of substance abuse would you support a public campaign to make alcohol and tobacco illegal?

Tax revenue seems an unworthy reason to legalize a narcotic. BTW, I would outlaw tobacco in a flash. There is no harmless smoking, but there is moderately harmless drinking. — Garth

#234 LP on 12.24.15 at 4:47 pm

#172 WUL on 12.24.15 at 9:57 am
Sadly, for me, Brussels Sprouts are still available. Yucchh.

******************************

I suspect this isn’t now and won’t ever be a Brussel sprouts blog. However I’ll weigh in here anyway and risk a post about the little buggers.

When I was a kid of 11 my mother was expecting my youngest brother during the height of sprouts season. She craved the darned things, lunch and dinner, for 3 months. My other brother and I were forced to eat them right along with her and grew up hating the mere sight of the ghastly veg. However, now that I have grandchildren and am forced by their parents to behave as if I like all vegetables, I have searched out a recipe that makes them quite tasty.

First, cut off the tough end and all tough outer leaves. Then peel each individual leaf and run them under cold water to refresh. Spin them in the salad spinner until most of the water is flung off. Bring a goodly amount of butter and lemon juice to a nice sizzle in a saute pan. Add the loose sprout leaves and stir them around so they don’t burn. Sprinkle with a little salt and pepper and, if you like, a favourite dried herb or another seasoning. Serve immediately.

They are still unquestionably Brussel sprouts but now you can pretend you have prepared a gourmet version that is really quite palatable.

Merry Christmas one and all!

#235 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.24.15 at 4:49 pm

@#226 thebestthingabout…blah blah blah

“Take your pot hate to the KKK rally and chant about how gay marriage will destroy Canada….”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Pot hate?
I think he’s just voicing his opinion. I smoked everything until about 30. Started boring the shit outta me. Took a toke a year or so ago and it blew my brains out. The stuff now is way, way more potent than the crap I used to smoke 25 years ago.
I’m all for decriminalization. The war on drugs was a complete failure. Perhaps selling it at the local liquor store is inevitable but I dont see it as a wise decision (lets face it. If booze was just “discovered” it would never , ever be leaglized)
There in lays the question.
Is the tax revenue worth it?
What long term effects will pot have on the youth of today? Only time will tell. I , for one, am not very optimistic.
So take YOUR antipot hate to the liquor store and buy a bottle of whatever for Christmas.
Tis the Season.

Speaking of which.
Merry Christmas my little cherubs……..

#236 Basil Fawlty on 12.24.15 at 4:57 pm

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year,

To: Garth and the Blogdogs

From: Basil the Dink

#237 young & foolish on 12.24.15 at 5:04 pm

this whole “pot legalization” business is a total waste of time …..

#238 TRT on 12.24.15 at 5:11 pm

Longest lines at stores in YVR I’ve ever seen!

No recession here. Don’t know if people are just chatting it to cards or the city is flush with cash.

Unbelievable.

Buy Canadian Tire stock. Local sport checks just shattered one day sales records. Well into 6 figures per day per store.

#239 TurnerNation on 12.24.15 at 5:13 pm

We’re being scammed folks. In wake of recent usual stupid incidents in Toronto the police union president hits the media saying See this is why we need increase of our 1 billion dollar per-year budget from tax payers.

Did you see that incident on Bay st last week – video footage all over the Net – a man swiped another using a machete blade as long as an arm? Then, local unarmed security guards tackled him into custody.

The (unarmed) hero guard said he was not afraid.
I was stuck by the video where they didn’t even pound him. Just a professional hold.
Yet weekly I see mainstream video of local cops alleged to have pummeled prone people. And mentally ill people wielding small sharp items extinguished using maximum force with minimum effort after a only few seconds. In every case on the stand they claim fear for their lives was the reason. Weekly we are losing people to them. Check the news.
I guess this professional unarmed security guard didn’t get the memo.

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/toronto/toronto-machete-attack-1.3379810

#240 saskatoon on 12.24.15 at 5:34 pm

#179 onpar

you know what else would “benefit society”?

YOU giving away all your assets to those in need.

what??!!??

you don’t WANT to do that?

LOTS of things can “benefit society”…but never is the initiation of force morally justified in order to accomplish these things…

taxation = theft.

try to argue from principles next time.

merry christmas, garth and fellow dogs!

#241 bdy sktn on 12.24.15 at 6:16 pm

ust what we need. Another legal way to become impaired and addicted. Genius thinking. — Garth
……………..
Good point. In the interest of not adding to the number of methods of impairment and addiction we could even it out by banning booze when grass is made legal.(has anyone ever seen other than an inexperienced teen actually impaired on the green)???

Personally, having a puff can boost my results on a standard iq test from the 130s to the high 140s. Lateral thinking and all.

#242 Keith in Calgary on 12.24.15 at 7:26 pm

I am 55 years old.

I have smoked pot since I was 17.

I am almost a liquid cash millionaire……($870K +/ excluding RE equity). I had authporization for calling in tactical nuclear strikes in the late 70’s and early 80’s when I was in the Canadian military in Germany……..(they gave us “go-pills”………basically legal “speed” to keep us up for 48-72 hours if the balloon went up while the rest of you dickwads were masturbating in your parent’s basement).

There a lot of people like me worth much, much, more out there……but they are scared of exposing themselves to the idiots such the conservative posters on this board. Bu they voted in 2015. So, fuck you.

I am getting surgery next month……told the doctor’s about my pot use during the pre-op screening, it’s not a concern at all, but smoking cigarrette’s was (which I do not)………

Go figure…….

#243 MF on 12.24.15 at 10:51 pm

#241 Keith in Calgary on 12.24.15 at 7:26 pm

Good for you. I have about 80k net worth and still think the following regardless of your rambling post:

-I could care less what you are worth.
-Watching people try to interact in daily life while high on weed is irritating and sad (I deal with the public all day at work and it’s easy to spot)
-Working with others who are high is irritating and sad because it means you have to work twice as hard.
-People older than 25-30 who are walking around high is irritating and sad because it indicates there is a problem and the weed is a crutch allowing one to bury their head in the sand (like any other drug).
-I saw guys basically begin to ruin their lives because of weed use (it is a gateway drug 100%)
-people who opt to smoke weed almost always have more unhealthy behaviors as a whole.
-lots of guys I know drive while high thinking it’s “safer than alcohol”….which it isn’t because it alters your concentration.
-t2 pandered to the losers of society with his legalization carrot on a stick and the moronic masses bit the bait.

MF

#244 Ken on 12.25.15 at 7:34 am

Canada is just a corporation…let it fail…there are two kind of people:those who think the government will save them and those who think…