Ten crazy things

1SELFIE 2

So, 2015 sucked for most investors, for Canada, for employees. In many ways, the perfect storm hit. The country slumped into a recession for six months. The Bank of Canada panicked and cut rates. Twice, goring savers again. Then oil collapsed, recovered and collapsed anew. The Greeks revolted. The Chinese went nuts, devaluing their currency and skewering markets. Europe brought in stimulus. Japan fell into recession. The US Fed kept us all in bondage until just last week.

Investors in maple paid big for patriotism. Oil companies got crushed and Bay Street delivered (so far) a 12% loss. Those with a balanced and global portfolio did okay – about flat on the year, preserving their capital. US markets returned little while Europe and Japan returned lots. People with US$ in their portfolios got a reprieve as the loonie flopped by a third. Gold slumped from $1,300 early in the year to $1,050.

What now? Here are ten things reasonable people should expect.

1. The US recovery will continue. No collapse. No recession. What you’ve seen is what you’ll get.
That economy’s been bubbling along at 2% or better annual growth for the last couple of years, adding almost three million jobs in 2015, turning out record vehicle sales with rising consumer confidence, real estate stability and wage growth. Now with gas under $2 a gallon and unemployment at pre-crisis levels, households are spending up a storm, but avoiding Canadian-style debt. Make sure a third of your growth assets are in US-traded securities and a fifth of your portfolio is hedged in real dollars.

2. Trump won’t win.
No matter what Putin wants. Rubio versus Hillary seems way more likely. Obama-in-heels will win. The markets will love it.

3. American rates will increase two to four times.
The Fed has zero modern history of raising interest rates once or twice and then calling it quits. This is the beginning of a process, so get used to it. The consensus view now is for two to four more jumps in 2016, depending on economic strength, then more of the same in 2017. The reason these dudes waited so long to pull the trigger was to ensure the longest possible runway for rate normalization. Remember than word.

4. Canadian mortgage rates will be 1% higher by the end of the year, regarding of what the Bank of Canada does.
It’s already happening, with about thirty basis points added to fixed-term loans. By the end of 2015, 2.5% five-year mortgages will be a memory because the Canadian bond market will inevitably follow that to the south – and this is where lenders fund mortgages.

5. Canada will have a budget deficit of $15 to $20 billion by this time next year, depending on how liberal the Liberals are.
These guys are starting from a $3 billion Harper-delivered hole, and will add $10 billion (according to their plan) in deficit spending in year one, plus the loss of massive oil royalties. So it’s likely that every year of the current government’s mandate will see us writing the national books in crimson. If I weren’t a dried-up old Boomer on the correct side of history, I might care.

6. The TSX will continue to be one of the worst-performing markets on the plant. Protect yourself by being diversified.
See below.

7. Oil’s going nowhere. Oil creep will hurt.
The world’s awash in crude. The OPECers won’t stop pumping. New producers are coming on stream. The global climate change agenda will seek to reduce demand. New fracking technologies bring gushing supplies at lower costs. In short, there’s no valid reason for believing in a rebound. In fact, we may not yet have hit bottom. The impact on the Canadian economy is well understood in Calgary, not so much in Burnaby or Mississauga. Pity.

8. The last great year for GTA and YVR real estate was 2015. For other markets, the slump has started. Possible exceptions are Montreal and Halifax.
Higher rates, tighter mortgage rules, a sad economy, more debt and fewer jobs is no formula for real estate gains. The most expensive markets have the greatest vulnerability, and the potential to turn quickly. Stable, under-valued markets spared from the delusional masses may actually benefit. But nobody gets rich next year from their house.

9. We’ve only started to see the advent of higher taxes in Canada. The success tax. The carbon tax. A higher GST. The TFSA demise. The small biz choke.
This week we narrowly escaped a new CPP tax, but it will come soon enough. If the rabble of 1%ers who read this pathetic blog don’t engage in serious tax planning and legal avoidance, they won’t be that way for long.

10. The Hot One will cool. A little. Millennials will find it’s never different this time.
Yup. It was the Year of Justin. He played the hopey-changey card, attracted two million new voters and delivered a knockout to the old gang. It then took only a month to confirm what we knew here already – you can’t tax two hundred thousand high-income people enough to deliver a tax cut to six million others. Soon we’ll confirm you can’t borrow your way to prosperity, either. What a shocker that will be. Like learning about Santa.

284 comments ↓

#1 Victoria Real Estate Update on 12.22.15 at 4:36 pm

VICTORIA SINGLE FAMILY HOME PRICES REMAIN BELOW PEAK LEVEL OF 2010

. . . . . .Single Family Home Prices. . . . . . .
Percent Above/Below May 2010 Price Level
. . . . . x = Victoria, * = Saskatoon. . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 9%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . *. . . .
+ 8%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 7%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 6%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 4%. . . . . . . .*. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 3%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 2%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 1%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .0%. . .x*. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 1%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 2%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .x. . . .
– 3%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 4%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 5%. . . . . . . . x. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
—————————————————————-
. . . . . May. . . May. . . . . . . November. .
. . . . .2010. . .2012. . . . . . . . .2015. . . .

(sources: price index – Victoria’s R/E board (website), Saskatoon’s R/E board)

Follow the * symbols from left to right for Saskatoon and the x symbols for Victoria.

EPIC HOUSING MARKET FAILURE

SFH prices in Victoria are currently 2% below the peak level reached in May 2010, according to the local board‘s index. Victoria’s housing market simply failed to take advantage of the lowest interest rates in Canada’s history.

Interest rates have been at emergency levels since 2009. As a result, all Canadian housing markets should have posted strong price gains each year that this strong stimulus has been in place. Saskatoon’s market did what it was supposed to. Victoria’s didn’t.

No excuses. Failure is the only conclusion that can be drawn here.

THE MYTH OF VICTORIA’S WARM WEATHER ADVANTAGE

The chart busts this myth. Clearly the colder city won.

There is no correlation between average winter temperature and the price performance of a housing market. US data backs this up.

SFH SALES HAVE BEEN BELOW VICTORIA’S LONG-TERM AVERAGE IN 2015

It’s a fact. 2007 was an average year for SFH sales in Victoria. SFH sales will (almost certainly) finish behind that pace in 2015.

HOUSE PRICES FALL AS RATES RISE

This sums up the future of house prices in Victoria.

No matter what the Bank of Canada does with its key rate, Canadian 5-year fixed mortgage rates will be moving higher, beginning almost immediately, for the next 2 to 3 years. The bond market controls fixed rates. All first-time buyers in Canada will be affected by this.

SUGAR-COATED STATS

Realtors have a vested interest in keeping house prices high in Canada.

The index levels (stats) used to put the above chart together were taken from the local board’s website. Many would argue that the 2% price decline since 2010 is fudged to some degree and that the actual price decline is more than that. We are, after all, talking about the local board’s frankenumber.

#2 T.O. Bubble Boy on 12.22.15 at 4:37 pm

Oil may not yet be at the bottom… what about $CAD?

#3 Vancouver's Housing Market on 12.22.15 at 4:39 pm

I recently posted a price chart showing how house prices in Vancouver fell 12% in 10 months until interest rates were suddenly slashed from near-normal to emergency levels in early 2009.

Vancouver’s (crashing?) housing market was rescued by emergency rates in 2009.

It would be difficult to argue that Vancouver has transformed into a completely different city in 6 short years, complete with new characteristics that make it immune to a major housing price correction.

It would be ridiculous if anyone tried to argue that, but claims such as that are made all the time on this blog. Some realtors post comments claiming that Vancouver is the new London or the new Paris or that HAM will guarantee higher prices year after year.

Of course these claims are completely false and unsubstantiated. If these claims were true, then the same things could have been said about Vancouver 6 short years ago as well.

Obviously those things couldn’t have been said about Vancouver 6 years ago. The proof is in the chart below, which shows that house prices in a smaller, cold prairie city (Winnipeg) remained flat during the GFC while prices in Vancouver fell fast and hard.

Vancouver simply isn’t the new London or the new Paris and there exists no HAM higher price guarantee.

Vancouver’s major price correction could be deeper and steeper than any other Canadian city. Its housing market is, after all, the second most unaffordable in the world. It got to be that way due to 6 years of emergency rates, Canada’s lax lending standards (compared to most other countries) and Canada’s mortgage fraud problem that has been allowed to persist without much in the way of consequences for some time.

It just isn’t different in Vancouver.

. . . . . . . . . House Prices. . . . . . . . . .
. Percent Below July 2008 Price Level . .
. . . * = Winnipeg, x = Vancouver. . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .0%. . .x*. . . . . . .*. . . . . . . . *. . .
– 1%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 2%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 3%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 4%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 6%. . . . . . . . . . . x. . . . . . . . . . . .
– 7%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 8%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 9%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-10%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-11%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-12%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x . . .
—————————————————————-
. . . . . .July. . . . December. . . . May. . .
. . . . . 2008. . . . . 2008 . . . . . 2009. . .

(source: Teranet’s index)

Follow the x symbols from left to right for Vancouver and the * symbols for Winnipeg.

#4 Dee on 12.22.15 at 4:40 pm

Add to number 9 that provinces and municipalities are gonna be coming for us, too. Like yesterday, this from Toronto:

http://www.metronews.ca/news/toronto/2015/12/21/dollar-a-day-parking-levy-could-be-revenue-tool-for-toronto.html

“politicians in Toronto seem to have accepted the city has a revenue problem, and filling holes in the city’s coffers will undoubtedly require a property-tax increase. Various councillors, meanwhile, are floating ideas on how to bring in more revenue over and above that.”

Everyone (personal and government) has been borrowing for a decade and, as Garth says, you can’t borrow your way to prosperity. The bill comes due next year.

#5 Bottoms_Up on 12.22.15 at 4:50 pm

Best blog post in a long time Garth.

As a stocking stuffer which one of your books do you recommend?

I’ve been too busy writing this damn blog, so buy then iPads. — Garth

#6 Lulu on 12.22.15 at 4:50 pm

Ontario government asking for your tax rebate to donate to help with the debts… Wow!!
I’m sure under the current provincial government, the debt level is much worst than it shows.
We may well be on the edge of bankruptcy, follow the steps of Greece if not much worse.
Oh well…. only the RE can save us all….NOT!!!
Amen and Merry Christmas to all the Turners family!

#7 mitzerboy aka queencity kid on 12.22.15 at 4:52 pm

If I weren’t a dried-up old Boomer on the correct side of history, I might care.

thankz garth for the ten crazy things

#8 Nanaimo Bar on 12.22.15 at 4:56 pm

Yes to everything.

Hillary will be in.

Yes to rising Mortgage rates in Canada and U.S. Esther George will finally have a Fed Vote. How much of a Hawk is she? She wanted to raise interest rates when the US was going through QE. She is a no nonsense type of person with huge balls. Industrial Balls. I am hoping she will replace Damnit Janet in 2018. The U.S. needed the doves during QE. Now the Hawks are being welcomed for raising rates.

#9 For those about to flop... on 12.22.15 at 4:59 pm

All I want for Xmas is someone to donate some time to bloody well help Victoria real estate update and their Commodor 64 charts.

#10 Senta on 12.22.15 at 5:07 pm

Yep. 2015 was eventful. Lost my job at the start of the year. Sued the company and got twice what they initially offered. Found another job at half the pay and twice the commute. If I weren’t a dried-up old Boomer on the correct side of history, I might care.

#11 Mocha on 12.22.15 at 5:08 pm

Regarding point #8: HAM doesn’t really care (YVR). There are agents which will now bypass the locals and market your house directly to Chinese buyers in China. There would have to be a heavy collapse in local demand to hurt values enough to discourage HAM from speculating on Vancouver properties.

#12 Sideshow Rob on 12.22.15 at 5:08 pm

“Here, simple and true story. Buy leveraged oil futures ETFs.”

//////////////////////////////////////

Sure. You first.

#13 Bubu on 12.22.15 at 5:09 pm

Forgot to mention, real estate prices up again in 2016. ..even in Calgary and Edmonton:)

#14 Mocha on 12.22.15 at 5:10 pm

P.S. Trump vs Hillary.

#15 BC Guy on 12.22.15 at 5:13 pm

I’ll be starting several new hashtags in 2016 for Van city dwellers:

Feb:
#donthave1point5million

May:
#donthave1point7million

July:
#donthave2million

Sept:
#donthave2point2million

Nov:
#donthave2point4million

Dec:
#howIescapedBCandmovedtotheUSA

#16 Rob in Munich on 12.22.15 at 5:17 pm

Greetings from Germany and Austria, just gassed up, diesel (no I don’t have one of those dirty diesels) and 97.9 a litre haven’t seen prices that low, well since ever. Best Brühl, Germanas 1.10€

And Yes I’m Lovin It!!!!

PS got out of oil and into a blanced portfolio a while back thanks!

#17 Editrix on 12.22.15 at 5:18 pm

I have a question. If the Boomers have used their houses as collateral for their Millennial kids’ houses, if the kids default, do the parent lose their places, too?

#18 MSM-Free Zone on 12.22.15 at 5:22 pm

“…So, 2015 sucked for most investors, for Canada, for employees…”
_________________________

Look at the bright side….

1) Canadians punted their dictator,
2) Canadian days are once again getting longer,
3) 14°c this Christmas Eve (well, at least, in my hometown),
4) Did I mention, Canadians punted their dictator?

Yes Virginia, there is a Santa Claus…

#19 Mark on 12.22.15 at 5:23 pm

“I have a question. If the Boomers have used their houses as collateral for their Millennial kids’ houses, if the kids default, do the parent lose their places, too?”

Absolutely, unless they have enough equity in their house, or in their other investments to cough up for the deficiency arising from the default.

#20 BC Guy on 12.22.15 at 5:23 pm

The oil market is extremely unpredictable. Saying it will stay at $40 or go to $20 is like trying to predict the weather.

Saudi Arabia is buckling under the pressure of low oil revenues and sooner or later something has to give. Maybe an Arab Spring in Arabia? Very possible. Plus the war with Yemen. Plus the teetering Royal family. Can they hold things together another 6 months? Who knows. All it takes is one major black swan and oil could rocket up to $80 in a matter of weeks.

Oil prices are cyclical in nature due to numerous variables. Hard to predict oil one month from now let alone a year from now.

#21 Frank on 12.22.15 at 5:24 pm

I’m with you on everything except the 604 cooling. I’ve failed to call top too many times and nothing significant seems to be out there to change it. Vancouver and Toronto were the only cities to add full time jobs this year so without a fall in incomes, major interest rate movement and almost no inventory I expect things to remain hot for the next 6 months. Maybe the growth will slow in the back half of the year but expect 2016 to be a record just like 2015 was.

#22 BS on 12.22.15 at 5:25 pm

Frank on 12.22.15 at 3:28 am
Well that fool is up 12% on paper this year. Your balanced portfolio is flat. Plus the bank let them borrow 20x to buy it, I doubt you got such leverage for so cheap. Call them what you want but that fool has a better net worth than you or I.

Wrong. Here is a lesson on balance and leverage.

Vancouver housing may be up 12% in CAD but is down 7% in USD even after factoring in the 12%. With 20 to 1 leverage a person holding Vancouver RE would be wiped out in USD terms (7% loss x 20 = 140% loss) That is before factoring in interest, holding and transaction costs.

On the other hand the MSCI World Index ETF is up 15% in CAD. Plus it paid a dividend and had virtually not costs to hold it or sell it. I think I will take the diversified balanced portfolio over the house.

https://www.blackrock.com/ca/individual/en/products/239697/ishares-msci-world-index-etf

#23 jaybee on 12.22.15 at 5:28 pm

Warning to new readers of this blog. Mark articulately replies to questions from readers. Most of it is tripe. The word charlatan comes to mind…

#24 WUL on 12.22.15 at 5:28 pm

VREU:

Your charts are easily read, understood and welcomed as least by me. Don`t let the critics of your graphs deter you.

With respect to Winnipeg real estate prices not being affected by the 20008 crisis, Winnipeggers did not hear about the crisis until it had passed.

#25 Mark on 12.22.15 at 5:40 pm

“Warning to new readers of this blog. Mark articulately replies to questions from readers. Most of it is tripe. The word charlatan comes to mind…”

Absolutely and unequivocally not true.

#26 jaybee on 12.22.15 at 5:40 pm

“Best blog post in a long time Garth.

As a stocking stuffer which one of your books do you recommend?”
———————————————————–
Not one of his financial books, but Sheeple is a very interesting read if you have even a passing interest in politics.

#27 Pas Ici! on 12.22.15 at 5:44 pm

“8. The last great year for GTA and YVR real estate was 2015. For other markets, the slump has started. Possible exceptions are Montreal and Halifax.”

Eeh bien! There is no bubble in Montreal, we Quebecers are too grounded to engage in all that nonsense speculative behavior! Prices will only go up here.

Pas Ici!

#28 Victoria Real Estate Update on 12.22.15 at 5:46 pm

# 24 WUL

I appreciate that and negative comments about my charts may actually help motivate me to post more of them.

Prices will fall as rates rise and I will probably be posting more charts over time showing this.

#29 I like cookies on 12.22.15 at 5:46 pm

Here’s another picture for you — http://www.gifbeam.com/uploads/5/0/4/6/50461919/8916771_orig.jpg

#30 Herf on 12.22.15 at 5:48 pm

“Like learning about Santa.”

What about Santa?

#31 jerry on 12.22.15 at 5:49 pm

What are “Real dollars”?

#32 Big Dipper on 12.22.15 at 5:49 pm

Fine comments except when your ideological meme kicks in.

Ever heard of Keynes? You better hope and pray that the ” hopey-changey thing” kicks in sooner then later. The only hope for Canada is massive govt spending – along the lines of Obama’s stimulus plans and more. The Con mindset of cutbacks would be disastrous.

Btw. I note my very sensible comment on CREB did not make it. Am I the next Ralph Cramdon (sp)? To the moon Alice..

#33 TRT on 12.22.15 at 5:55 pm

No recession in Vancouver.

Malls are more packed than ever.

Money is coming from somewhere and it isn’t salaries. Lol

#34 Randy on 12.22.15 at 5:58 pm

2016 will be revenge of the Boomers. Who cares about deficits, taxes or real estate ? Invest in U.S. markets and vacation in Florida or Arizona.

#35 4 AM Sunrise on 12.22.15 at 6:02 pm

In a particularly HAM-tastic part of town, this has been on the market for YEARS and is not selling:

http://www.rew.ca/properties/R2005671/10971-rosecroft-crescent-richmond

Theories abound in the neighbourhood about why this is. It’s a SFH next to an elementary school – what more can you ask for? Sure, it’s right at the butt-curve of a cul-de-sac, so I guess it’s bad feng shui. That sure didn’t deter buyers of a bungalow at the end of a T-junction in the same neighbourhood. A monster house is being cobbled in its place as I type this. Maybe it’s just haunted?

#36 Renter's Revenge! on 12.22.15 at 6:03 pm

“All it takes is one major black swan and you don’t know what will happen because it’s a black swan.”

There, fixed it for you.

#37 Bram on 12.22.15 at 6:03 pm

#1 Victoria Real Estate Update on 12.22.15 at 4:36 pm

Can you please stop spamming the same boring stuff each and every day? Don’t you think we’ve seen it enough times now?

Maybe post a victoria graph once per MONTH instead? When new figures come out? You are annoying the readers.

#38 Shawn on 12.22.15 at 6:13 pm

11.

$CAD will hit all time lows – below the old lows of 62 cents

#39 Bram on 12.22.15 at 6:13 pm

With 20 to 1 leverage a person holding Vancouver RE would be wiped out in USD terms (7% loss x 20 = 140% loss) That is before factoring in interest, holding and transaction costs.

I guess you flunked your math classes, and economics classes.

That’s not how it works.

But yes, this year’s +12% RE in USD terms, has been negated by a -16% CAD fall. Only relevant for US investors though. Not for a Canadian. Also, that +12% has been going on for years, that loony only for 2 yrs or so?

#40 Stimulus Baby.... on 12.22.15 at 6:19 pm

“Europe brought in stimulus. Japan fell into recession”
“US markets returned little while Europe and Japan returned lots”

well Canada can check off that second part, so now we just need some ‘stimulus’ and our stock market can ‘rip’ also….2016 is shaping up to be a ripper of a year….

makes sense to me! rock on!

#41 Bilder on 12.22.15 at 6:31 pm

If you paired Cad$ with Gold, you’re up for the year. 12 months ago it was ~1370Cad. Today ~1490Cad. 9% return.

#42 White Crock BC on 12.22.15 at 6:32 pm

Just another take on the Fed rate situation from someone that knows a lot more than most people on the subject.

http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2015/12/the-feds-premature-rate-hike.html

#43 Nemesis on 12.22.15 at 6:33 pm

“Rubio versus Hillary seems way more likely.” – HonGT

#FunnyYouShouldSayThat,Or… #WhereTheElephantsRoam…

(Salon) – Marco Rubio, the billionaire whisperer: How he became the plutocrats’ favorite candidate (and why we should be scared): Rubio got the backing of yet another mega-donor last week. Here’s why he’s so attractive to the richest of the rich

http://www.salon.com/2015/11/02/marco_rubio_the_billionaire_whisperer_how_the_he_became_the_plutocrats_favorite_candidate_and_why_we_should_be_scared/

(NoteToGT: If a week is a long time in politics… a year is practically an aeon… There will be ‘surprises’.)

#44 Fred on 12.22.15 at 6:35 pm

What about Santa?

#45 Frank on 12.22.15 at 6:36 pm

Money is coming from somewhere and it isn’t salaries. Lol.

Actually it is. Jobs and salary growth were positive in Vancouver this year in stark contrast to the rest of the country. Sure real estate is divorced from the under lying fundamentals but your won’t that people here aren’t making more money than before.

#46 idiocracy on 12.22.15 at 6:36 pm

Most of the loyal fans of this blog are supposedly renters or people who’s personal finance is free of real estate overweight.

Most of the loyal fans of this bog are supposedly investors, with the goal of carefully manicured balanced portfolio.

Yet – most blog posts, most comments are about real estate.

Go figure.

#47 For those about to flop... on 12.22.15 at 6:37 pm

#9 For those about to flop… on 12.22.15 at 4:59 pm
All I want for Xmas is someone to donate some time to bloody well help Victoria real estate update and their Commodor 64 charts.
///////////////////////////
#24 WUL on 12.22.15 at 5:28 pm
VREU:

Your charts are easily read, understood and welcomed as least by me. Don`t let the critics of your graphs deter you.

With respect to Winnipeg real estate prices not being affected by the 20008 crisis, Winnipeggers did not hear about the crisis until it had passed.
///////////////////////////////////

#37 Bram on 12.22.15 at 6:03 pm
#1 Victoria Real Estate Update on 12.22.15 at 4:36 pm

Can you please stop spamming the same boring stuff each and every day? Don’t you think we’ve seen it enough times now?

Maybe post a victoria graph once per MONTH instead? When new figures come out? You are annoying the readers.
///////////////////////////////////////
My point was than in the past people have boasted on here that they can do better charts/graphs I was simply trying to gode them into action.
There is another guy on here that is always trying to steal Garth’s traffic to his site named Brian Ripley ,I believe .Maybe he can step up to the plate and help out although I have seen people on here say that his charts are crap too.
Vreu post what you want when you want. I was just trying to get you some help ,my bad!

#48 Ed on 12.22.15 at 6:39 pm

TransCanada wants to provide a $15 billion stimulus at no cost to the tax payer. Of course our Sock Puppet would not understand this.

#49 Bassrage on 12.22.15 at 6:39 pm

#1 Victoria Real Estate Update on 12.22.15 at 4:36 pm

If Victoria prices have not returned to peak levels, isn’t that because the correction you talk about (unlike Vancouver) has ALREADY occurred? It is a past event, not a future one. Prices are in fact rising here in a healthy and balanced way. I think that the fact the peak is still in the past is an indicator of present health in the Victoria market, not the converse.

#50 Andy on 12.22.15 at 6:46 pm

Great post Garth but sadly, I think that a year from now, your projections will have been optimistic. With a sliding dollar, new oil production set to add to the supply from Iran and Canadians finally waking up to the emergency need to start deleveraging thus reducing demand, I am not looking for much in the new year.
I hope that you are right!!

#51 canuck on 12.22.15 at 6:47 pm

2. Trump won’t win.
No matter what Putin wants. Rubio versus Hillary seems way more likely. Obama-in-heels will win. The markets will love it.
_______________________________________________

Yeah, No. You’re projecting… or just scared.

Just as Canadians have swung to the left with nutley and the crown prince of papineau, Americans will swing to the right. The average American is tired of America being a doormat and the average Republican is tired of having idiots shoved down their throats the last couple of years… and they don’t care if the market likes it or not.

#52 Chris on 12.22.15 at 6:48 pm

I am joining you in calling a Hillary victory in the presidential race. She is much stronger this time around. What is going on with this Bush, I happen to like him much better than the last one. But his campaign has been quite a disaster. Rubio, maybe he will be the one that emerges from the republican pack. He is smooth talking and maybe too much so than having much substance. Not trusting his words. Rand Paul disputes everything he says and I think Ron’s son may be the more trust worthy one in that mini debate. Anyway, Trump is jist entertainment. Don’t be delusional to think that he will get anywhere near the white house.

#53 Freedom First on 12.22.15 at 6:48 pm

2015. A great year to be liquid, have cash, cash flow, income streams, balance, global diversity, and be debt free. Wouldn’t have it any other way. And I’m into my 2nd century of operating this way.

Seeing as how it’s Christmas, I thought I would share this.

With the Libs in the Federal set on more taxes with a lower CAD as Garth said, and Alberta, where I am living, in recession and NDP’d, I have made changes this past year and will continue to perfect my changes as we go. I am doing my utmost to put as little money into the economy as possible. This, is, of course, without suffering in any way, but in fact will act only to increase my financial and personal health and well being in many ways.

It is a very good thing to not make oneself vulnerable in any way, ever, always remain teachable, and maintain flexibility and adaptability at all times. This enables one to always be in a calm state and just flow…….no matter what speed the current.

#54 jess on 12.22.15 at 6:50 pm

2. Trump won’t win.

An Analysis of Donald Trump’s Tax Plan
Leonard E. Burman, Jim Nunns, Jeff Rohaly, Joseph Rosenberg
http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/publications/url.cfm?ID=2000560

“The biggest loophole in the Trump tax plan, according to Roberton Williams of the Tax Policy Center, is the “pass through” provision that would allow contract workers to have their income taxed at the lower 15 percent rate. When Kansas made such an allowance recently, thousands of workers shifted their work status to cut their tax bills, leading to a revenue shortfall.”

http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/12/22/analysis-of-donald-trump-tax-plan-sees-a-boon-for-wealthy-and-trillions-in-debt/

=

http://www.democracynow.org/2015/8/19/david_cay_johnston_21_questions_for
“For example, Donald’s most famous building, the Trump Tower, instead of building it as a steel girder building, he chose to build it out of concrete, a 58-story—he says 68 stories—a 58-story concrete building built by a company called A&S [S&A Concrete] construction. And who owned [S&A] construction? “Fat Tony” Salerno, the head of the Genovese crime family in New York, and Paul Gambino—I’m sorry, Paul Castellano, the head of the Gambino family. Trump used the same company for other projects that he built, even though they were more costly than using steel girder construction.

When he tore down the Bonwit Teller building to make way for the Trump Tower, he had about a dozen union house wreckers on the site and about 150 Polish workers, all of them illegally in the country, who he paid $4 to $5 an hour and who did not have hard hats. And Trump claimed in a lawsuit that he had no idea that these workers were there in any way other than an appropriate way. And a federal judge mocked him, pointing out that they were easy to spot because they were the ones who had no hard hats.”

#55 Smoking Man on 12.22.15 at 6:50 pm

Smokey’s Top 20 predictions for 2016

1. After Gut Check does the art work for my book, it inspires me to finish the beast.

2. I publish it and becomes a best seller.

3. 5000 Sort term rentals I’ve engaged with for purely prostate cancer prevention, recognise my pic and black mail me.

4. I say FK you.

5. Mrs. Smoking Man finds out, goes “you bastard.” And Calls CRA and the IRS

6. My VPN tunnel and text encryption trade-o system is un raveled. Teams swarms the islands looking for my loot. They will never find it.

7. Locked in the slammer, Gerard Butts says he knows people and tries make a deal for my release.

8. I say F You.

9. I make a distress call via the UCC to my boys.

10. I giant mother ship blasts a death ray hole in the roof of my cell, and I escape. Full disclosure delivered.

11. The bar at Seneca retires my Tinfoil Fedora to the rafters, puts a permanent reservation sign on my usual table.

12. Bottoms_Up becomes a write for Climate Depo

13. Mark meets the Wizard of Oz and gets a Soul.

14. Laughing Con has had enough and buys a house at the peek, poor bastard.

15. Once my wife finds out I’m a kick ass space ship pilot, she forgives me. And wants a ride.

16. Sherry Valentine will have none of it and buys an AK Gun
17. My wife being from the Highlands of Scotland chops her head off.

18. Ashman and Barrington discover the are Gay, they get married and live at Young and Bloor.

19. Ashman’s dad does not approve. Homo phobic ass hole.

20. Garth loses his mind and this becomes a cat blog.

#56 Balmuto on 12.22.15 at 6:56 pm

#221 Mark on 12.22.15 at 3:44 pm

“When large numbers of samples are added up and appropriately weighted, what you end up with is the Teranet index lagging the real world quite severely.”

Teranet must be lagging the “real world” severely indeed if the last two years of supposedly declining real estate prices have yet to show up in the index. I find it hard to believe anyone would use such an unreliable indicator.

But let’s say you’re right about the time lag effect. What can we conclude from this? At most, that Teranet does not reflect recent market conditions and therefore we cannot draw any conclusions from it about prices over the specified timeframe. By no means does that imply that prices have actually been falling.

Until and unless you can produce some data of your own to support this view – that Toronto RE prices have fallen over the last two years – you simply have no basis on which to make that assertion.

#57 For those about to flop... on 12.22.15 at 6:56 pm

This guy seems to think the FANGS are going to come out in 2016…

http://www.businessinsider.com/nasdaq-poses-a-threat-to-the-bull-market-2015-12

#58 lee on 12.22.15 at 6:57 pm

O’leary plans to invest big bucks in large cap oil in 2016 – so why so bearish on oil Garth?

#59 waiting on the westcoast on 12.22.15 at 6:59 pm

Garth says… “8. The last great year for GTA and YVR real estate was 2015. For other markets, the slump has started. Possible exceptions are Montreal and Halifax. ”

You are only saying that because you have property there… ;-)

Neither. — Garth

#60 batt519 on 12.22.15 at 7:02 pm

You need to be honest, gold was flat in CDN$ this past year which was an absolute boon for companies like CRJ http://schrts.co/atx7zQ
http://schrts.co/5nhKkH

$ilver in CDN$, same, flat
http://schrts.co/mWeK6R

Take your shots, they’ll deflect of my $ilver bars. I wish you a Merry Christmas and healthy profit$ in ’16 regardless!

Batt

#61 mark on 12.22.15 at 7:06 pm

This week we narrowly escaped a new CPP tax, but it will come soon enough. If the rabble of 1%ers who read this pathetic blog don’t engage in serious tax planning and legal avoidance, they won’t be that way for long.

Well it would be nice if someone would share any serious tax planning and legal avoidance for people in the 40k-80k income range…………let me guess same old same old we just talk about it?

ya we got tfsa, rrsp, what about tax avoidance??
That needs serious discussion here?

#62 Nemesis on 12.22.15 at 7:08 pm

#OneMoreCrazyThing… #TotemicPoleDancing?,Or… #WhyTheNativesAreNotAmused…

(CBC) – Miss Universe Canada’s totem pole dress shocks First Nations people

“They (Miss Universe pageant) should hire a cultural consultant in the future to avoid hanging an important symbol from a future contestant’s crotch.” – Ashley Callingbull, Enoch Cree Nation, Alberta, Mrs. Universe

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/totem-pole-dress-1.3376366

#63 waiting on the westcoast on 12.22.15 at 7:08 pm

#33 TRT on 12.22.15 at 5:55 pm “No recession in Vancouver. Malls are more packed than ever. Money is coming from somewhere and it isn’t salaries. Lol”

Copious consumption was rampant in the US throughout 2007/early 08 prior to the collapse. People won’t realize that there is a problem until it affects 10% of the population.

If money is coming from somewhere… Did they give it to all those people at the mall (or why are they there)? It’s just the last CCs getting maxed out.

I think the delusional in Vancouver will be fine until late this year, early next year… Then the rats will be heading for the exit.

#64 IHCTD9 on 12.22.15 at 7:12 pm

9. We’ve only started to see the advent of higher taxes in Canada. The success tax. The carbon tax. A higher GST. The TFSA demise. The small biz choke.
This week we narrowly escaped a new CPP tax, but it will come soon enough. If the rabble of 1%ers who read this pathetic blog don’t engage in serious tax planning and legal avoidance, they won’t be that way for long.
————————–

Justin is waffling, or outright rescinding just about every election spending promise he has made at this point, despite hardly having gotten his prepubescent political feet wet yet.

The taxes are coming from all three levels of government, just when we collectively need them the least. On working stiffs, and on businesses. 2016 is going to be the best entertainment out there for many folks here on this blog, but probably be a living hell for most brokeass Canadians.

Being a gen X, I was lucky to buy RE when I did, and lucky to have a good economy thru most of my working career. We saved and killed the mortgage and currently service no debt whatsoever.

Saving and paying down debt is a lot less fun than shopping for real estate and new toys, but times like these reinforce the supreme value of a comparatively minor, yet consistent sacrifice over the last couple decades to get into good shape financially.

Harper left 3 Billion, but now thankfully, that insane dictator is gone, and Canadians have woken up. Now, with joyful hearts we look forward to a 15-20 Billion dollar deficit after JT1 is complete. Double that by the end of JT2. JT3&4 will probably see downgrades and maybe even a little heat from the bond market if commodities are still in the toilet.

In the end with JT, next to nothing that does Canadians any good will get done. Most of what will get done will be useless to 99% of folks, or straight out harmful. For this service, we will be blessed with massive, and serial deficits, 10 figure annual debt increases, and a lusty buffet of revenue tools most of which will be needed to offset Trudeau’s boneheaded policies.

At least Justin is a nice guy instead that asshole we used to have.

#65 RudyGQ on 12.22.15 at 7:17 pm

Garth,
The best sports teams lose around 40% of the time.
The best gamblers in vegas lose about 45% of the time.
Top equity traders, ditto.
So to be in such company of the elite, one must expect to be wrong near 40% of the time. Therefore I expect your predictions to be about 40% wrong, hence why a
blah-lanced portfolio is recommended. I won’t hold you to these 2016 predictions as you have a job to educate AND entertain. It is a hard business to constantly predict an ever changing future.

#66 johnny on 12.22.15 at 7:18 pm

Well Garth.not sure why we should believe you now.
Your interest rate predictions were wrong. So my guess is we had one rate increase and that will be the last or second last one. So the Fed might have the balls to do one more but that will be it..by spring the US economy will be sputtering even more than it is now as the global economy weakness hits them too.
Plus their banks have big energy exposure..junk bonds are in freefall..even the real estate sales are down big.
You still havent answered the most important question..if the US economy is so hot as you repeat day after day then why have interest rate been at ZERO for 8 YEARS!!!! Please enlighten us Garth..an average economy does not need ZERO percent interest rates for 8 YEARS..a horrible economy does..this has been a desperation move.

They are zero no longer. I said rates would rise in 2015. They did. — Garth

#67 Jeff Gauld on 12.22.15 at 7:20 pm

Are variables rates influenced by US bonds, or only fixed?

Thanks Garth

Both have increased. — Garth

#68 OXI in GREECE on 12.22.15 at 7:21 pm

9. We’ve only started to see the advent of higher taxes in Canada. The success tax. The carbon tax. A higher GST. The TFSA demise. The small biz choke.
This week we narrowly escaped a new CPP tax, but it will come soon enough. If the rabble of 1%ers who read this pathetic blog don’t engage in serious tax planning and legal avoidance, they won’t be that way for long.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Interesting how NO ONE……absolutely NOBODY ever brings up cutting the size of our fat inefficient bloated overpaid underworked govt (on all three levels). Never ever……well Canadians……you reap what you sow. Good luck with that……

#69 bigtowne on 12.22.15 at 7:23 pm

The Christmas traffic rush up on Hwy 7 and Westin Road in Vaughan was titanic with Darwinian dangerous drivers. Me first all about me..the problem happens when they encounter other ME FIRST types which is every second driver in our northern GTA paradise.

So I parked in front of the DOLLARTREE (mecca for Canadians who know what a real dollar is) and my word I was parked right next to a MASERATI. It gave me a sense of fellow citizen Holiday Spirit.

Today is a big day in the oil trade as WEST TEXAS traded on par with BRENT. Canada has been through some very dim times like back in the 30’s but we bounce back usually after about forty years so don’t fall into a foul funk yet dear. Of course, the lucky can ride out into the blue yonder of America. We will be in our back yard cleaning the air for our CLIMATE CHANGE agenda in a throwback to the great Chinese reidoctrination of the 50’s. Hey we like polar bears and squirrels too ya knowd.

#70 OXI in GREECE on 12.22.15 at 7:26 pm

Censorship on the no censorship blog on the Trump issue I see. Garth you must be a democrat or enjoy the US and its arms trafficking business. It’s very very public knowledge. Even Trump has brought it up……but it’s your blog I guess…..

Anyone who posts ten times in twenty minutes will be snipped. What you have to say just isn’t that interesting. — Garth

#71 Big Oil still pays my bills on 12.22.15 at 7:26 pm

VHM#3
The vancouver market peaked in April of 2008, the gfc started end of sept. The drop in prices started in April, due to supply/demand…..near record listings if I remember. Gfc just made it worse. With lower prices and rates…..monthly payments,on same house,were now 30% less…… Comparing Raincouver to winterpeg
Apples and Oranges

#72 Doug t on 12.22.15 at 7:30 pm

If your thinking 2016 is going to be bad just wait for 2017 LMAO

#73 young & foolish on 12.22.15 at 7:35 pm

Sell your 416 mansion asap?

#74 Leo Trollstoy on 12.22.15 at 7:36 pm

#55 Balmuto on 12.22.15 at 6:56 pm

I wouldn’t worry about Vancouver or Toronto real estate prices either. Prices have been rising despite the sales mix for a long time now. Data clearly supports this.

#75 Yuus bin Haad on 12.22.15 at 7:37 pm

Garth. I don’t want anybody posting anything that makes me feel uncomfortable. Please continue to ensure that this remains a safe site. Thank you.

#76 Rexx Rock on 12.22.15 at 7:39 pm

#4 is incorrect,interest rates will not rise at all.Toronto,Vancouver and Victoria will continue with a strong and robust ecaonomy.2% gdp growth is a joke if you ask me.Some African countries have better than that.More ham,lower rates ,currency devalueation and high immigration forever for Canada.

#77 waiting on the westcoast on 12.22.15 at 7:39 pm

My past #62 – meant late 2016 / early 2017 for you literalists…

#78 jaybee on 12.22.15 at 7:40 pm

Garth says… “8. The last great year for GTA and YVR real estate was 2015. For other markets, the slump has started. Possible exceptions are Montreal and Halifax. ”

You are only saying that because you have property there… ;-)

Neither. — Garth
———————————————-
I thought Garth rented in Toronto, and owned an ocean side summer home in a Unesco World Heritage town in Nova Scotia.

#79 45north on 12.22.15 at 7:48 pm

Aggregator: ( from yesterday ): I don’t know why you guys bother reading bank reports, as if the banks are going to call the end of Canada’s housing market

At this stage of the tightening cycle, the only data of interest should be credit spreads, and by the looks of unconventional Canadian mortgage financing rates, things are about to get ugly.

no the banks are not going to call the end of the housing market. neither are the real estate boards. they’re just not

so credit spreads tell the future. got it

reminds me of my younger years as a computer programmer. I watched my program come off the printer and I read from the bottom of the print-out towards the top and then realized that I couldn’t read past the print chain

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IBM_1403

#80 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.22.15 at 7:48 pm

@#20 BC Guy
“Saudi Arabia is buckling under the pressure of low oil revenues and sooner or later something has to give….”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Ummmm.
Saudi Arabia are the ones creating the oil glut by pumping more oil…
Saudi Arabia has a $640 BILLION dollar slush fund to fritter away before they decide to cut back on oil production to generate more billions. I’d bet on “later” rather than “sooner” for that “something to give’
Alberta car dealerships will be tumbleweed strewn gopher colonies long before Saudi Arabia’s Royal family worries about their economy.
Yemen? Pfffft. The saudi army will pull out of there when they’ve had enough, just like the US in Iraq and Afghanistan. Go in . Blow things up. Wreck the economy. Leave….Announce to the world that you’ve “won”.
Next.

#81 TurnerNation on 12.22.15 at 7:50 pm

Poverty is a disease. Fastest way to becoming (or staying) poor is by hanging around poor people.
Guaranteed.

#82 IHCTD9 on 12.22.15 at 7:51 pm

#46 idiocracy on 12.22.15 at 6:36 pm
Most of the loyal fans of this blog are supposedly renters or people who’s personal finance is free of real estate overweight.

Most of the loyal fans of this bog are supposedly investors, with the goal of carefully manicured balanced portfolio.

Yet – most blog posts, most comments are about real estate.

Go figure.
——————

Most folks here have both real estate (paid for), and investments.

#83 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.22.15 at 7:52 pm

@#76 Rexx Rock
“interest rates will not rise at all.Toronto,Vancouver and Victoria will continue with a strong and robust ecaonomy.2% gdp growth is a joke if you ask me.Some African countries have better than that.More ham,lower rates ,currency devalueation and high immigration forever for Canada.”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Hmmmm. Let me take a wild guess.
You’re a realtor(aka salesperson)?
With a balanced and objective viewpoint?

#84 45north on 12.22.15 at 7:53 pm

5. Canada will have a budget deficit of $15 to $20 billion by this time next year

These guys are starting from a $3 billion Harper-delivered hole, and will add $10 billion in deficit spending in year one, plus the loss of massive oil royalties. So it’s likely that every year of the current government’s mandate will see us writing the national books in crimson. If I weren’t a dried-up old Boomer on the correct side of history, I might care.

well I care. for my children and grand children

#85 unbalanced on 12.22.15 at 7:53 pm

Hey!!! Anybody else here from Winnipeg.

#86 Linda on 12.22.15 at 7:54 pm

Well, I hope Garth is right about ‘the Donald’. The idea of Trump as president is terrifying all by itself. Due to being super wealthy (the guy isn’t dumb when it comes to money, for sure) he gets the eccentric label as opposed to the lower level of loot label of ‘nuttier than a fruitcake’. He also avoids being nabbed by the men in white coats thereby.

As for the rest – gah. 2016 isn’t even here yet & it does not sound overly promising. Hopefully it will be better & not worse than anticipated.

#87 Smoking Man on 12.22.15 at 7:55 pm

The machine don’t get it..

Every time Trump says anything that gets MSM up his ass, he gets more popular.

Its not a vote for trump, it’s a vote against MSM and the Neocons, roomer has it, they want to start there own party.

Nice, get em all in the same building, joint chiefs of staff Get to rid humanity of these bastards
with one wee crude missile.

Building 7 must have justice in order to become a nation again…

Trump gets it…Putin Gets it….

I would hate to be Larry Silverstien in these interesting times.

#88 Mike T. on 12.22.15 at 7:56 pm

1. The US recovery will continue. No collapse. No recession. What you’ve seen is what you’ll get.

I promise you are wrong

2016 is the year the rest of the world turns against the US and the ‘West’

By the time it’s done, the IMF will be re-jigged and headed by a man from China

#89 IHCTD9 on 12.22.15 at 8:00 pm

#53 Freedom First on 12.22.15 at 6:48 pm

… I am doing my utmost to put as little money into the economy as possible. This, is, of course, without suffering in any way …
————

I like.

I am doing the same, although small sacrifice will be involved.

I hope many more think like this. Might as well get started on it, especially wage earners with limited options.

#90 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.22.15 at 8:03 pm

@#44 Fred
“What about Santa?’
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Santa has handed the reigns to Garth.
Children all over the world will wake up on the 25th and find a balanced and diversified portfolio in their stockings.
They( and their millenial parents) will be confused and disappointed because they wont understand that “toys” purchased on credit are expensive and wasteful but boring, money chugging investments are the way to a future life after 40 years of drudgery in the salt mines of life……

Ho Ho Ho you little investors.
May your fees be insignificant and your earnings the opposite!
Merry Garthness and to all a good night.

#91 Market Man on 12.22.15 at 8:04 pm

Canadian mortgage bonds and securities
Start to implode
The spread is increasing at a fast rate

#92 YVR/416 RE...Jobs/GDP as usual on 12.22.15 at 8:04 pm

#21 Frank

7 dates that will give an indication whether YVR/416 RE will cool earlier/later or not at all in 2016:

Labour Force Survey 2016 (Nov. 2015 was -0.2%):
Jan. 8 / Feb. 5 / Mar. 11

GDP by Industry (Sep. 2015 was -0.5%):
Dec. 23, 2015 / Jan. 29, 2016 / Mar. 1, 2016 / Mar. 31, 2016

If GDP/Jobs fine then:

1. Cooling will probably start in 2017, probably near 4Q, as CMHC forecast is 6% mortgage rate/5 year fixed for that quarter, which will add about $2350 more per year (vs. this month) to mortgage payments on an average $250 K mortgage.

2. Hard for most I expect to cut budget to pay for another $195/month towards the mortgage upon renewal in next 5 years…means less spending and that will lower GDP.

3. An extra $195/month will make it harder to qualify for a mortgage and that will affect RE sales approaching 4Q 2017.

If GDP/Jobs not fine then:

4. As in 2015 Alberta, if many layoffs/psychology of doom and gloom hits due to layoffs in YVR/416, RE prices will fall quickly as they have done in all other burst RE bubbles.

#93 Retired Boomer WI on 12.22.15 at 8:04 pm

Vey FUNNY post tonight, Garth.

2015 Investment wise, in the US wasn’t great either, and our money didn’t shrink. Still time to ‘get to even’ but rather dubious on that goal.

Your TOP TEN things reasonable people might ponder is noted, but the future is always speculative.

Trump is the BEST entertainment we’ve had in politics in years! He might never win, and I think we would regret it if he did, but so darn entertaining!!!

Hillary the worst recycled joke – EVER!

Rubio – pleases the RICH perfectly! (why he won’t win)!

Can investments do ‘ok’ in 2016? Probably at the rate of growth less, inflation. Interest should raise twice more.
Minmum wage should raise. Geezer benefits should not change, maybe go down by inflation rate. (get used to being ignored Boomers).

I’m thinking it will be an uneventful time in boredom world.

#94 Arse on 12.22.15 at 8:07 pm

I am not going to make any more predictions for the next year. Most of my predictions have not come true.

#95 Julia on 12.22.15 at 8:08 pm

#19 Mark
““I have a question. If the Boomers have used their houses as collateral for their Millennial kids’ houses, if the kids default, do the parent lose their places, too?”

Absolutely, unless they have enough equity in their house, or in their other investments to cough up for the deficiency arising from the default.”

In which case would this happen? With CMHC insurance there is no need for additional collateral. Parents co-signing would be to offset some of the repayment risk, not collateral. If the kids don’t qualify for CMHC insurance, then they need 20% down so why would additional collateral be required?

Otherwise, I see parents borrowing directly against their house to lend money to the kids, consequently any default by the kids does not affect them.

#96 MD on 12.22.15 at 8:08 pm

2% growth for a 15 trillion economy HoHo n Merry Christmas it for FS 300 billion worth and Apple is worth more than that

#97 IHCTD9 on 12.22.15 at 8:17 pm

#61 mark on 12.22.15 at 7:06 pm
This week we narrowly escaped a new CPP tax, but it will come soon enough. If the rabble of 1%ers who read this pathetic blog don’t engage in serious tax planning and legal avoidance, they won’t be that way for long.

Well it would be nice if someone would share any serious tax planning and legal avoidance for people in the 40k-80k income range…………let me guess same old same old we just talk about it?

ya we got tfsa, rrsp, what about tax avoidance??
That needs serious discussion here?
————–

If you earn a wage, you have to be a little creative.

Start with your consumption habits. Avoid retail, buy used. Barter for goods and services. Dump into RRSP’s, flip the return into a TFSA or more RRSP’s the following year. Reduce your exposure to conventional energy. Start a small business out of your house and claim everything you possibly can. Buy food items from a farmers market, road side stand, start a garden, raise some chickens

There are other things you can do as well that both make money and avoid taxation. Guys out my way run scrap steel, sell firewood, moonlight their trades, flip equipment, atv’s, anything folks like in their area.

There are more things folks do, but the legality of same goes down the drain quickly from here…

#98 45north on 12.22.15 at 8:18 pm

Big Dipper: You better hope and pray that the ” hopey-changey thing” kicks in sooner than later. The only hope for Canada is massive govt spending

well I have a quarrel with that thinking. Agriculture Canada has just put in place a policy to encrypt all its data. There’s no question that the policy will result in more spending – more computers and more consultants. Employees will spend more time on simple tasks. However, Canadian agriculture will suffer. There will be less time to work on research such as new plant varieties and watershed studies. Interaction with partners in industry and universities will be harder. Not a lot harder but a little. Interaction with the public will be harder too.

#99 mike in kelowna on 12.22.15 at 8:21 pm

Garth….You’ve been very accurate in predicting gold prices. any predictions on gold prices in 2016?

#100 not 1st on 12.22.15 at 8:22 pm

Garth, I don’t want to see you hang on to another Vancouver/Toronto like prediction for 9 years so I can save you some time and face.

The US economy will falter in 2016 and teeter to recession just like we are. Those rates are one and done and back down again.

And Canada is already in real negative rate territory so Poloz was telling the truth. Canada’s mortgage rates won’t be rising, they will be falling. The 10 year will be in the low 3% range in about 6 months. Great time to lock her down then.

Doubtlessly as accurate as your former anti-US calls. — Garth

#101 Joe on 12.22.15 at 8:23 pm

re: 4 AM Sunrise”

Maybe because Richmond is a Shi$^$thole. Once you cross the Oak St bridge, you really know you are not in Kansas anymore, and god help you if you have to drive with all those clowns on the road.

#102 gut check on 12.22.15 at 8:25 pm

@ #55 Smoking Man

ha ha ha ha ha!
love it
that was my smile of the night (and not just because I got a mention, either)
:)

#103 james on 12.22.15 at 8:27 pm

#32

“Ever heard of Keynes?”

Yes. And Keynes did NOT believe in permanent deficit spending.

He believed that governments should save in good times and spend in bad. This, by the way, has been debated for a long time.

Modern governments believe in permanent deficit spending. For instance, Ontario. The worst sub-sovereign borrower in the world.

Paul Martin’s government might have been Keynesian. Harper’s ‘conservatives’ believed in deficits and ‘stimulus’ packages, but did not believe in saving. We will see what the latest Liberal government does.

#104 Julie K. on 12.22.15 at 8:29 pm

Great, specific, post today. But left thinking me about an 11th crazy thing.

Fact is, I’d be disappointed not to have your blog to read six days a week. I have learnt a lot of things here this year. Important things.

Thanks for being you, Garth. For writing what you do, how you do! And besides the considerable knowledge & opinion sharing within the blog dog community, I get belly laughs too — so many great Garthism’s!

Admittedly, I am still a fool. But maybe, just maybe, a lesser fool thanks to you.

Cheers!

#105 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.22.15 at 8:32 pm

@#85 unbalanced
“Hey!!! Anybody else here from Winnipeg.’
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Errrr. No.
Just curious.
Is your name a comment on your financial status or your mental state when deciding to move to WinterPig?
Anywho.
Is it true biblical swarms of mosquitos in the spring and summer will swoop down and carry away small animals and children?
Is Lake Winnipeg going to be totally consumed by algae this year?
Will the Red River overflow its banks and flush all the algae away?
Does Santa worry about being mugged at Portage and Main?
Do they have free block heater plug ins in the mall parking lots in Winnipeg?
So many questions about “the Peg”…..so little time.

#106 nonplused on 12.22.15 at 8:32 pm

If Hillary wins we are all doomed. The woman will start WWIII.

#107 Bobs ur uncle on 12.22.15 at 8:33 pm

#95 Julia

I think this short vid may provide some insight on why it’s a bad idea to co-sign any loan or mortgage – because it’s like you took out the loan yourself:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/video/video-carrick-talks-money-how-bad-an-idea-is-it-to-co-sign-a-loan/article27687418/?service=mobile

#108 Mark on 12.22.15 at 8:34 pm

“In which case would this happen? With CMHC insurance there is no need for additional collateral. Parents co-signing would be to offset some of the repayment risk, not collateral. If the kids don’t qualify for CMHC insurance, then they need 20% down so why would additional collateral be required?”

Co-signers can be required or desired for a number of reasons, but chiefly among them, the lender just doesn’t trust the borrower-in-chief to repay. The reasons for this can run the whole gamut of being overly new to Canada and without a credit history, to just being unable to save and the ‘folks’ want to ‘help’ their little jewels get onto the housing ‘ladder’.

For instance, I attended an engineering conference in the GTA in ~2010. I met an engineering intern of a very specific national origin, who, on the strength of his internship income, told me he had co-signed a number of loans for newcomers to his ethnic community in the outskirts of the GTA.

Otherwise, I see parents borrowing directly against their house to lend money to the kids, consequently any default by the kids does not affect them.

If they borrowed outright, giving (or lending) the kids the money, then of course, a default by the kids doesn’t affect them. Other than, the bank almost always has the first mortgage, and hence, has priority over any security interest that may have been pledged by the kids in favour of the loan. IOW, the folks might have an awfully hard time being repaid. Since many of them, are highly over-allocated to home equity when they should be nearing retirement, its highly problematic for the reasons Garth frequently espouses.

#109 Ten crazy things | Realties.ca on 12.22.15 at 8:38 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/12/22/ten-crazy-things/ […]

#110 Well...? on 12.22.15 at 8:38 pm

I know you’ve been warning readers to lighten up on Maple and be long the US for a while. But just in the last few months have you been preaching keeping 20% of your portfolio in US dollars. Isn’t that a bit late?

Did you just join us? — Garth

#111 Love my Kia on 12.22.15 at 8:39 pm

Don’t rule out Bernie Sanders (ya, who?).

He’s the guy filling large stadiums across the US in spite of the fact that media won’t give him coverage. I found it amazing he draws 20 plus thousand people at a venue with high capacity. A lot of sheeple have woken up to him. If he makes the ticket, adios to the predictions.

Bernie makes no bones of his dislike for Wall St.

#112 Hope & Ruin on 12.22.15 at 8:41 pm

We should get Trudeau a selfie stick. He’d love it.

Garth has said it before, “don’t bet against America.” I see what he means now.

#113 Well...? on 12.22.15 at 8:42 pm

A safe diversified portfolio is flat? Even with all the global markets going up and safe stuff paying dividends? How come flat?

This year flat is fine. — Garth

#114 Smoking Man on 12.22.15 at 8:43 pm

DELETED

#115 The Other Chris on 12.22.15 at 8:44 pm

@99 mike in kelowna on 12.22.15 at 8:21 pm

It looks like Venezuela is going to have to liquidate between 12 billion and 17 billion in its gold reserves in the next year, unless it decides to default on its bonds in February.

With that much gold coming on to the open market, I can’t imagine gold prices rising in the next year.

#116 Love my Kia on 12.22.15 at 8:44 pm

Following up on my Bernie Sanders comment, this old guy filled an LA stadium with 17000 waiting to hear him speak outside.

Media can try to control all they want, but social media is wreaking havoc on the desired outcome.

The image looks like a sold out rock concert. Looks good on the guy.

http://www.hngn.com/articles/118542/20150812/bernie-sanders-los-angeles-rally-record-breaking-turnout.htm

#117 Mark on 12.22.15 at 8:50 pm

“Interaction with partners in industry and universities will be harder. Not a lot harder but a little. Interaction with the public will be harder too.”

Very true. I actually did some work for Agriculture Canada ~10 years ago in the area of statistical analysis of certain datasets and correlations. When I needed data, they just emailed it to me. Often file sizes of several hundred megabytes as email attachments at a time. The data flowed freely, I was able to do the statistical analysis on it, and then send them back the results (datasets which ran into the gigabytes — not so trivial for the computers at the time, but thankfully I’m a lot better at coming up with optimized algos than the canned off-the-shelf packages like SPSS).

Can’t imagine all the sort of requirements that would apply to such these days. Just complying with them might have cost more than I actually earned on such consulting. I know government has certain responsibilities to its governed, but it was hardly a national crisis when government wasn’t so paranoid about secrecy.

#118 Millmech on 12.22.15 at 8:52 pm

#61 Mark
Good question,how about it Garth?Is there anything else people in the middle income range can do to reduce their taxes.Stuffing more into RRSPs(extra $4500 this year),Maxing out TFSA,no kids at home,single so no other deductions.

#119 down and out on 12.22.15 at 8:53 pm

I feel the economy can only get better ,capitalism must be one tough system to take the abuse from these inefficient leaders of the free world ruling now. Imagine communist Russia without a strong leader like Putin it would fall into chaos .

#120 Aggregator on 12.22.15 at 8:54 pm

How One Woman Tried To Warn Everyone About The Housing Crash (listen to the podcast)

In the middle of the last decade, a blog called Calculated Risk became a must-read for its obsessive coverage of the economy and its warnings about the overheating housing market. During the 2006-08 period, Calculated Risk had two authors: One was the blog's founder, Bill McBride, and the other was "Tanta," a pseudonymous mortgage industry professional who was trying to blow the whistle on the problems she saw emanating from her industry.

I posted this article because the author of the blog, Bill McBride, raises an important point that relates to Canada's housing market. I read through many of the comments on this blog and others and it appears to me that everyone is asking the wrong question. Instead of asking who's salaries are paying for these giant mortgages, the question should be: Why would lenders make such loans if they're not going to be repaid?

For that answer we go to a recent report by the Bank of Canada's titled: Residential Mortgage Securitization
in Canada
(PDF)

While public securitization programs may support competition, they may also increase vulnerabilities in the financial system by influencing the business models  of mortgage lenders. For example, mortgage finance companies (MFCs) are important participants in the residential mortgage market. MFCs typically underwrite and service insured mortgages sourced from brokers. They tend to sell a large proportion of their mortgage loans to federally regulated financial institutions (FRFIs), which may use them in CMHC securitization programs  for funding or regulatory purposes, or into CMHC securitization programs. In this way, MFCs rely to a considerable extent on funding from public securitization programs. Without these programs, it is not clear if  MFCs’ other sources of funding, which are less stable than deposits (e.g., syndicated lines of credit from banks), would be reliable and large enough to support their mortgage activities.

The BoC is implying that mortgage lenders' business model (mortgages purchased from brokers) may have an incentive to create bad loans because they are backed by public mortgage insurance and guarantees, namely CMHC, who uses some undisclosed model to qualify borrowers. The BoC also acknowledged that without these publicly-backed securitization programs, mortgage lenders would have no sizeable alternative source of cheap funding, that is, whether their access by funding at real market rates (risk adjusted) would last is unknown.

I really don't buy the notion that our banks are prudent lenders at all, especially when mortgage and credit lending is growing faster then nominal GDP, population and employment growth. At this point, the amount of spring-loaded debt in our system is so levered and fragile that no govt or regulator wants to touch it. As McBride mentioned in the interview posted above: on the record the regulators assured him that "guideline" were in place, but off the record they were "terrified".

So is Canada's housing market really a boom, or is it criminal negligence and regulatory failure? Discuss.

#121 Smoking Man on 12.22.15 at 9:00 pm

So hammerd….

#122 Interstellar Old Yeller on 12.22.15 at 9:01 pm

Glad for your advice to be globally diversified. Given the all-Canadian alternative, flat for the year seems all right to me. Thank you very much, Garth.

#123 Leo Trollstoy on 12.22.15 at 9:01 pm

… if someone would share any serious tax planning and legal avoidance for people in the 40k-80k income range…………let me guess same old same old we just talk about it?

Stop earning income as a salary. That’s step 1. Where most people start and stop.

#124 Mark on 12.22.15 at 9:02 pm

“Teranet must be lagging the “real world” severely indeed if the last two years of supposedly declining real estate prices have yet to show up in the index. I find it hard to believe anyone would use such an unreliable indicator. “

I wouldn’t say unreliable, but definitely subject to limitations. Its not really an index you can point to and say, “the Teranet index went up 10% therefore my house went up 10% and I could sell it for 10% more today”. Realtors generally will do what they call a “comparative market analysis”, where they take a collection of very recent transactions in your area off of the MLS, and attempt to compute a discount or premium accordingly. Only amateurs or dishonest sell-siders would try and use numbers like Teranet, or the Realtor averages to model price changes for individual properties.

Because literally every piece of RE is different, these issues are inherently going to exist in the statistics, sales mixes, and the like. But most Canadians are finding that, if they honestly sit back and take an impartial look at the value of their RE, that it has fallen over the past few years as new buyers are increasingly being shut out of the market on account of tightening credit standards, weakening job prospects. Additionally a significant amount of new supply requires quite substantial discounting to be absorbed. Consumer behaviour, of course, has followed, with consumers substantially tightening their belts over the past few years leading to no inflation despite the CAD$ losing 30%+ against Canada’s largest trading partner.

Ben Tal of CIBC has a pretty good article on how the Realtor-generated headline numbers shouldn’t be taken at face value, particularly on account of significant sales mix shifts:

http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/if_2014-0908.pdf

#125 Leo Trollstoy on 12.22.15 at 9:04 pm

By the time it’s done, the IMF will be re-jigged and headed by a man from China

We need to collect the dumbest comments on this blog and put them all in a book.

#126 APL on 12.22.15 at 9:05 pm

Here is another prediction for 2016. Rare footage of Justin as child will continue.

http://i.imgur.com/XaiUx.gif

#127 Freedom First on 12.22.15 at 9:12 pm

#95 Julia

Never ever co-sign a loan for anyone. Co-signing for anyone is an act of a fool. This financial principle is 2,000 years old. No charge.

#128 Julia on 12.22.15 at 9:13 pm

#107 Mark.

Ok. But tell me in what case a bank would take a mortgage on the parents’ house to support the child’s mortgage?
I don’t see why a bank would require that and therefore how the parents could lose their house if the kids lose theirs.

#129 IHCTD9 on 12.22.15 at 9:14 pm

#95 Julia on 12.22.15 at 8:08 pm
#19 Mark
““I have a question. If the Boomers have used their houses as collateral for their Millennial kids’ houses, if the kids default, do the parent lose their places, too?”

Absolutely, unless they have enough equity in their house, or in their other investments to cough up for the deficiency arising from the default.”

In which case would this happen? With CMHC insurance there is no need for additional collateral. Parents co-signing would be to offset some of the repayment risk, not collateral. If the kids don’t qualify for CMHC insurance, then they need 20% down so why would additional collateral be required?

Otherwise, I see parents borrowing directly against their house to lend money to the kids, consequently any default by the kids does not affect them.
————–

I think you are right. Parent borrow against their house which secures the loan. What they do with the money is immaterial, if they don’t pay it back, the bank takes the house.

Only way I see a direct correlation between the kids loosing their house and consequentially the parents losing theirs, is if the parents actually relied on payments from the kiddies to make their own loan payments to the bank.

Parents would require rocks in their heads to make a deal like that.

#130 IHCTD9 on 12.22.15 at 9:16 pm

#125 APL on 12.22.15 at 9:05 pm
Here is another prediction for 2016. Rare footage of Justin as child will continue.

http://i.imgur.com/XaiUx.gif
——

LOL!!!

A gif is worth ten thousand words :)

#131 Chump on a Stump on 12.22.15 at 9:16 pm

I wish the Hamilton housing market would start to cool off. I’m seeing old houses that haven’t been updated since 1978, with less than 1,000 squ. foot of space being sold for close to $400,000. That may not sound like a lot given the state of the Toronto market not too far away, but clearly these houses are selling for way more than their true worth. People have gotten smug around here.
Anything under $600,000 is selling for an inflated price. From my observations, the $600,000+ market must have few buyers since those houses LOOK their price.
I’m looking forward to prices settling down. I’m tired of hearing about how much people have made off their houses!

#132 Julia on 12.22.15 at 9:21 pm

#126 Freedom First
Totally agree. Worst mistake anyone can make. Especially for family.

#133 Timmy on 12.22.15 at 9:21 pm

Up 12 percent this year, due to overweight in US stocks and of course, no bonds.

#134 Are "real dollars" USD? on 12.22.15 at 9:22 pm

Newbie here wonderin’: Does this mean 1/5th of portfolio bought in USD? Thanks.

“Make sure a third of your growth assets are in US-traded securities and a fifth of your portfolio is hedged in real dollars.”

#31 jerry on 12.22.15 at 5:49 pm
What are “Real dollars”?

#135 saskatoon on 12.22.15 at 9:25 pm

the truth about bernie sanders:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D0Yp1jUtcX8

fortunately, hillary is worse.

#136 Wooba on 12.22.15 at 9:29 pm

I’m going on holiday in a couple days. I want an android app that I can use during very brief internet connections to download the content of this blog to read later. Can anyone recommend anything?

#137 Mark on 12.22.15 at 9:35 pm

“Parents would require rocks in their heads to make a deal like that.”

Unfortunately lots of people have rocks in their heads these days. Whether it be co-signing loans, “gifted” downpayments, etc., the lust of boomers and their kids to get onto the proverbial property ladder to riches has been almost insatiable in this bubble. Which is exactly why it is a bubble — because people abandon most rational references to the fundamentals and merely buy at any cost.

The big problem is correlation. Most Canadian families (especially ones for which the kids actually would need downpayment gifts or co-signers) are already severely over-weighted to residential real estate. By “helping” their kids, they’re essentially doubling down on the very asset class that they ‘should’ be avoiding in the interest of portfolio balance. When high levels of leverage are involved, especially with an asset class as low-returning historically as real estate, personal financial disaster is inevitable.

#138 Smoking Man on 12.22.15 at 9:37 pm

If I had a daughter this would be her.

https://youtu.be/2zf9zrrPWEE

#139 Leo Trollstoy on 12.22.15 at 9:39 pm

Why gold is a crappy investment. This article is so true. Anybody and everybody who has an allocation to gold has seen that allocation destroyed.

http://time.com/money/4158932/gold-bad-investment/

#140 Topsy-Turvy on 12.22.15 at 9:39 pm

Not sure about prices of homes in Vancouver, but according to simulations in 2050 about one-third of the city will be under the water: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/will-you-be-underwater-theres-a-map-for-that/

#141 For those about to flop... on 12.22.15 at 9:43 pm

#103 Well…? on 12.22.15 at 8:42 pm
A safe diversified portfolio is flat? Even with all the global markets going up and safe stuff paying dividends? How come flat?

This year flat is fine. — Garth

//////////////////////////////////////////
I checked on my wife’s tfsa today ,which I helped her set up,yes it is even for the year so I didn’t screw it up too badly for her .
Today she got $700 in dividends which is small potatoes but it is better than giving the bank $ 700 which is what a lot of people have to do.
I should get mine in the next day or so,ladies before gentlemen I guess!

#142 SWL1976 on 12.22.15 at 9:48 pm

#51 Canuck

the average Republican is tired of having idiots shoved down their throats the last couple of years

Now that’s a rich statement considering the last republican president.

I also found Garth’s comment about never seeing the USD collapse in our life time’s or that of our children’s also to be rather bold. It may not look like it now, but 2 years ago oil didn’t look like it would be desperately grasping at 35 bucks a barrel.

Now I understand the central bankers do not want to kill the goose that laid the golden egg – the USD – but my UCC tells me that these same central bankers have another plan up their sleeve, and that is to leave us all stunned and in the dark, from the outside looking in.

As far as the Trump show – I find it disgusting the way the mob is embracing him. I had to set someone straight the other day about the trump show, and I left them with a puzzled look on his face. He was talking about Trump being the man. Trump is nothing more than a wealthy redneck breeding hate amongst the uninformed uneducated masses.

Really America banning Muslims???

Think about that for a minute everyone… This isn’t Berlin, 1939 and in no way should we regress to this sort of behaviour. If America really wants to ban refugees or muslims (two separate entities btw) then perhaps they should throttle back their war machine and stop creating the problems they are encouraging their population to hate.

Hillary also deals directly with the devil, so looks like your vote really doesn’t count next year

Modern democracy is nothing more than a sheep and two wolves voting on what’s for dinner

#143 Mark on 12.22.15 at 9:50 pm

“I’m going on holiday in a couple days. I want an android app that I can use during very brief internet connections to download the content of this blog to read later. Can anyone recommend anything?”

The blog supports RSS readers. I have mine hooked up to Microsoft Outlook, so each article is downloaded.

Don’t know about Android though. If you have an Android phone tablet, why not just use a bit of 3G/4G data and load it up on your web browser? I use a 4G connection when I’m on the road, albeit directly to my laptop.

“Why gold is a crappy investment. This article is so true. Anybody and everybody who has an allocation to gold has seen that allocation destroyed.”

Gold is crappy until it isn’t, ie: during periods of significant monetary instability.

#144 ben on 12.22.15 at 9:54 pm

Garth – why no slide in Montreal? Prices are a little frothy here I think. Quebec has a lot of manufacturers so can benefit from the CAD slide. What’s your reasoning for this please? Curious.

#145 Alberta Blue Blood on 12.22.15 at 9:55 pm

Oil creep is beyond the walls of Calgary. My hubby works in the Middle East and the layoffs are coming fast and furious. These are the first layoffs he has seen there in 14 years.

This time he’s scared for his job. When contract renewals come up, they are slashing the day rate and if you don’t like it, hundreds are lined up for your job. And buddy (your boss) always has a friend who needs a job.

And wage dumping is real when an Indonesian will happily work for 1/10th of your day rate. Last he heard they are even removing the danger pay in Iraq.

At this rate, we won’t have to worry about being extra-taxed in the 1% any longer. Good thing we don’t own any real estate and are free to move anywhere to where he/we can find work.

#146 Yaley on 12.22.15 at 9:55 pm

“The last great year for GTA and YVR real estate was 2015.”
………………………………………………
You are probably right about this. Rather than a pretty stellar 18% gain, Vancouver will only see a rather average 7% gain in 2016.

#147 Leo Trollstoy on 12.22.15 at 9:55 pm

I’m enjoying the NDP show in Alberta.

http://calgaryherald.com/opinion/columnists/braid-ndp-drifting-into-exhaustion-and-unreality-as-albertas-crisis-mounts

History won’t be kind.

#148 unbalanced on 12.22.15 at 9:56 pm

To crowdedfarthead or whatever. Thanks for the compliments of Winnipeg. I retired at 53 and still pulling in 80k. Good city.

#149 Hawk on 12.22.15 at 10:02 pm

#51 canuck on 12.22.15 at 6:47 pm

=========================

Agreed, on the Republican side I also think it’ll be either Trump or Cruz, not Rubio. The way its going so far, the base is solidly behind the non-establishment candidates.

In addition, even though Trump / Cruz have a smaller chance of wiing then Hillary, they do have a chance.
The reason is that people will turnout to vote for Trump or Cruz, but if Jeb or Rubio were to win, many of them would just stay home on election day. So even from that angle the non establishment guys are the better choice for the Republican party.

#150 Shirley Valentine on 12.22.15 at 10:04 pm

Oh Smokey man…..is 2016 really the year you become a billionaire romance novelist!! Is 2016 the year I get a ride in the space machine

You have awoken the warrior princess in me… how did you know my middle name was Xena?? Does Mrs smokey know what she is up against.. do i?! You do know that female baboons will tear each other to bits to be the queen with the rights to teh king plasma nozzle

Oh she is a lucky feline to be have access to the plasma nozzle of the great studly smokey man.. alien beast who has the force and sees the future

#151 Greg Ellis on 12.22.15 at 10:06 pm

Canadian living in the US for twenty years. Of course Hilary will win. Vote from wonen, illegals, people wanting a free ride and not caring about enormous debt and she is a pacifist. Total abdication of responsibility and a short-sighted view. Obama part deux.

#152 bdy sktrn on 12.22.15 at 10:08 pm

#135 Wooba on 12.22.15 at 9:29 pm
I’m going on holiday in a couple days. I want an android app that I can use during very brief internet connections to download the content of this blog to read later. Can anyone recommend anything?
———————-
exactly what i do every weekend

what device?

samsung (phone) browser lets you save pages easily, where chrome does not at least on my lollipop galaxy phone.

look for a ‘save page’ option on whatever native browser is on your device (bb playbook just never lost them – it would hold what ever page you had until you closed it)

#153 prairie person on 12.22.15 at 10:09 pm

I know someone retired, 70 years old, who has just taken out a mortgage on her fully paid house, given the money to her kid to buy a house. This way they both have mortgages but they are not connected. Mom has to start paying off her loan and her kid has to start paying of its loan. I love my kids but I don’t think at my age that I would want to be taking on a mortgage. There’s a double whammy there. Less income from investments plus interest to pay on the loan. Of course, it all depends on someone’s income and capital. If you can afford it, why not? If you are placing your own welfare at risk, then why?

#154 Xoxo on 12.22.15 at 10:14 pm

“By the end of 2015, 2.5% five-year mortgages will be a memory because the Canadian bond market will inevitably follow that to the south – and this is where lenders fund mortgages.”

The thesis is correct, the reason is wrong. Funding in the US is done only partly there and party here depending on liquidity needs and most on attractiveness of pricing (based on how cheap or not it is relative to here). To say that funding is done there is incorrect, primary market is here.

The real reason why mortgage rates are going
up however is cuz capital is ever more expensive and new OSFI charges might make
it even more so to issue a mortgage loan.

We are both correct. — Garth

#155 Greg Ellis on 12.22.15 at 10:17 pm

Just saw #51 Canuck comment. The support for Trump reflects the outrage felt by people who are sick of government as usual and in particular Obama’s dictatorship. He’s a guy who is in over his head. Just a disastrous presidency. The uninformed, uneducated are those to whom the Dems cater.

#156 Gregor Samsa on 12.22.15 at 10:19 pm

I disagree strongly about the Trump prediction. If you don’t believe it, watch this recent interview with George Stephanopoulos. As one youtube commenter says, “Trump is like a chainsaw through whipped cream.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lXDSJCdfX8k

Trump is the first politician in maybe 20 years or more that is actually daring to TELL THE TRUTH and to cut through the corporate media spin and lies.

Because of this all establishment types and media types will be out to crucify Trump, and this may inevitably do him in, but to predict his demise at this point is foolish and rash.

#157 Moses71 on 12.22.15 at 10:20 pm

#130 Chump on a Stump
It must be torture watching the armpit of Ontario make the smuggies “rich”
Just come to Calgary for a breath of fresh air with what a dose of reality does.
People come down to earth and start making sense

#158 Yaley on 12.22.15 at 10:32 pm

Information provided by REBGV

Active Listings at end of November each year:
2012 15,689
2013 14,090
2014 12,553
2015 8,096

Sales numbers are close to record levels. Notice a trend? It’s going to take a long while and something drastic to slow this ship down.

*not a realtor or connected to the industry now or in the past.

#159 Basil Fawlty on 12.22.15 at 10:38 pm

Interesting that over 30% of the strong auto sales loans in the US are subprime.
In addition, these high interest loans are being packaged into bond funds and sold to those looking for yield in this low interest rate environment.
Where have we seen this before? Remember CDO’s made from subprime mortgages? There are trillions in subprime auto loans. Same crap, different Unicorn.

Why do you never express concern over Canada’s household debt level which trumps that of the US? Just a hater? — Garth

#160 Yaley on 12.22.15 at 10:41 pm

JUST IN:

Greater Vancouver active listings down to 7354 as of today.

#161 Gulf Breeze on 12.22.15 at 10:43 pm

#51 Trump insures a Hillary win. Unfortunately, as Trump has shifted the goal post so far right, into true Nazi territory, anything left of that will seem reasonable. Trump gives license to the so called, ‘centrists’ to push a pretty hard right agenda, and still appear to be ‘liberal.’ It’s all relative.

#162 Mark on 12.22.15 at 10:45 pm

“It’s going to take a long while and something drastic to slow this ship down.”

How do you know that the ship hasn’t already slowed down and the reduction in supply you’re seeing is on account of a reduction in prices. With potential vendors simply deciding not to list into the declining prices?

After all, higher prices should bring out more, not less supply. So the fact that you’re seeing less supply implies that prices are already lower.

Vancouver RE prices, by all measures, are still quite high historically, with many hundreds of thousands of dollars showered onto the average family on account of completely ‘unearned equity’. Not that many people have problems with equity. But as prices continue to fall and more people encounter problems with equity, look for those numbers to start increasing significantly.

#163 Kenchie on 12.22.15 at 10:47 pm

#151 jane 24 on 12.22.15 at 2:31 am
“The British equivalent to Zillo is http://www.zoopla.co.uk This website allows you to check out any UK home re selling history. Vendors can hide nothing today!!

But our RE stats are issued, admittedly 2 months after the fact, by the Registry Office where all land transfers are registered with their selling price and tax paid. Easy enough to gather up these stats and publish every month. Canada could do the same in a nanno second IF it wanted too. The data is there.

We also have two sets of commercial RE pricing data that come out monthly produced by the largest RE chains, the Halifax and Nationwide. We have no MLS in this country. Quite often there is marked discrepancy between the commercial selling numbers and the govt numbers. Always interesting to note. Govt numbers nearly always lower.”

Love Zoopla! Rightmove.co.uk is good too.

Halifax is skewed more towards northern England while Nationwide is slightly skewed to the south, so it is usually higher. Gov’t numbers probably include Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, each of which are not highly priced pieces of real estate.

#164 Bottoms_Up on 12.22.15 at 10:47 pm

#151 Gregor Samsa on 12.22.15 at 10:19 pm
—————————————-
Do tell just exactly what it is that Trump is telling the truth about?

He speaks in generalities and superlatives, and is a very harmful human being.

#165 Almost Retired on 12.22.15 at 10:47 pm

#158 Yaley

” It’s going to take a long while and something drastic to slow this ship down.”
——————————————————
My bet is either an 9.0 eartgquake centered in the Burrard inlet.

or…

A new super virus first detected and wiping out most of the passengers on a direct flight from Beijing to YVR.

#166 LuckyRenter on 12.22.15 at 10:48 pm

2. Trump won’t win.
Yes to everything but Trump will win.

#167 Chris on 12.22.15 at 10:49 pm

Just to be contrarian, I think Garth will be mostly wrong about everything. I hope he’s right about Trump, but I thought the same about Bush the second time, and look what happened. My prediction is that something unexpected will happen that will render 7 or 8 of these predictions wrong or moot. We will look back in a year and be amazed. I hope 2016 is profitable for you all (except those on the other sides of trades with me.)

#168 Mark on 12.22.15 at 10:57 pm

“To say that funding is done there is incorrect, primary market is here.”

Indeed. I don’t see why the constant effort is made to correlate the US bond market with the Canadian one. Canadian mortgages are almost entirely funded by Canadians. While there is significant foreign funding inherent in the US mortgage market on account of foreign sales of MBS to foreign entitles looking to hold USD$ assets.

The US bond market is hence far more vulnerable than that of the Canadian bond market, to foreigners dumping such holdings. Canada’s relative reclusiveness in the financial markets is actually proving to be a financial advantage.

Canadian bond buyers today have significant deflation and CAD$ appreciation to look forward to, as the CAD$ has already moved a few sigmas beneath its normal trading levels historically. While the USD$ has experienced the opposite, which portends a significant statistical likelihood of a fall. For this reason alone, CAD$ bonds may have significant upside to buyers at the margin that isn’t evident from just the yield alone. Especially since it is well known that low policy interest rates in developed economies are historically associated with currency strengthening and deflation, rather than inflation.

The real reason why mortgage rates are going
up however is cuz capital is ever more expensive and new OSFI charges might make
it even more so to issue a mortgage loan.

Precisely. Mortgage rates are almost certainly set to grow faster than any changes in rates in the bond market. Spreads are widening. Spreads will continue to widen until housing prices fall enough that supply in excess of demand is completely truncated. Only at such point will spreads return to a more neutral level.

Abnormally wide spreads in corporate credit, will likely give way eventually to narrower spreads in business/corporate credit which should help employment in Canada eventually. But there could be a significant period of adjustment until spreads normalize/rebalance themselves, especially considering just how pervasive housing finance is within the Canadian economy. Prolonged periods of quite abnormally low policy rates and even low rates on longer-term risk-free debt are likely.

#169 Almost Retired on 12.22.15 at 11:02 pm

#162 Mark

“How do you know that the ship hasn’t already slowed down and the reduction in supply you’re seeing is on account of a reduction in prices. With potential vendors simply deciding not to list into the declining prices?”
……………………….

Wow, that was brilliant. Maybe it might help if you read a few real statistics rather than commenting on every statement that posters write on this blog.

#170 CalgaryCarGuy on 12.22.15 at 11:04 pm

“The impact on the Canadian economy is well understood in Calgary, not so much in Burnaby or Mississauga. Pity.”
——————————————————————–

Several years ago when Alberta was still booming and our province and our oil based economy was being constantly dissed from all directions I thought to myself that it would be interesting to shut off the taps—shut down the industry. THEN the country would really learn how much Alberta and the oil industry really means to the Canadian economy. But, of course, how could that really ever happen in reality. It seemed to be an impossibility for it to ever happen. Well folks, here we are. It’s happening and you are about to get an education over the next year or so. Sooner or later every drop of oil in the Canadian oil sands WILL be brought to market. It just depends on how much financial pain you are willing to endure trying to deny and delay that fact before you come to the conclusion that the Canadian economy is absolutely resource based. Oil prices will rebound at some point. Not sure when yet but they surely will. Hopefully sooner rather than later.

#171 Smoking Man on 12.22.15 at 11:10 pm

#150 Shirley Valentine on 12.22.15 at 10:04 pm
Oh Smokey man…..is 2016 really the year you become a billionaire romance novelist!! Is 2016 the year I get a ride in the space machine

You have awoken the warrior princess in me… how did you know my middle name was Xena?? Does Mrs smokey know what she is up against.. do i?! You do know that female baboons will tear each other to bits to be the queen with the rights to teh king plasma nozzle

Oh she is a lucky feline to be have access to the plasma nozzle of the great studly smokey man.. alien beast who has the force and sees the future

…..

How can I not love two…

#172 BobC on 12.22.15 at 11:24 pm

Real estate, stocks, bonds and America will only go up from here. Bet your home, your retirement, your families future on it. It’s all milk and honey.

#173 Kenchie on 12.22.15 at 11:30 pm

#155 Frank on 12.22.15 at 3:28 am
“Yeah yeah. This city abandoned fundamentals years ago. People like you have pointed that out and been wrong every time. Tell me what’s different?”

Boomers will start dying in the early 2020s in larger and larger amounts. The growth of the Canadian population between the ages of 25-34 is going to turn negative for the first time in a long time, if ever, at the same time as boomers start dying more, 2020s. Generation Z is much smaller than Generation Y (Millennials). And in Vancouver, Gen Z is even smaller than the Canadian average.

“Weak dollar? So what, was weak in 2004 and the housing stormed up to 2007. Minor set back in 2008, dollar was low, Vancouver housing still had huge gains.”

Actually it was weak before 2004. It started its ascent in late 2003 against the USD. Van RE was strengthening due to falling interest rates. I remember being in a meeting with my dad at BMO private banking where he quoted a TD bank rate for a renewal that he had coming up with BMO. The private banker called in the VP of the Vancouver branch as he walked by to ask if he could match the TD rate. That rate, in December 2004, was 3.94%. My parents were coming off a mortgage rate of +6% from 1999.

“Higher rates pending? Rates were higher in 2011 and there were still double digit gains. Why is this only not sustainable now? If if wasn’t 4 years ago why won’t it be for 4 more years?”

Higher than today, yes. But it’s still been a 35 year bull market for treasuries which has now come to an end. So there’s a paradigm shift, meaning comparing 2011 to 2016 is irrelevant. Mortgages were, obviously, smaller 4 years ago, on average, and held by older, richer citizens, while today’s vulnerabilities are predominantly with younger millennials that have been buying highly priced houses with cheap debt. So the composition of borrowers has changed over the years, and not for the better. Furthermore, those with high debts today will potentially be rolling over mortgages at higher rates in 3-5 years, thus putting more pressure on their incomes. Not only that, so many millennials have gotten married and bought houses in the past 4 years, there are bound to be a significant amount of divorces that lead to even more unsustainable situations.

“Incomes? Please, we covered this it’s been out of whack for years.”

Ever heard of mean-reversion? No trend is straight forever. Even look at RBC’s “Affordability Index” for Vancouver going back to the 1980s. It’s an arc that peaked in early 1990s and now.

“Well that fool is up 12% on paper this year. Your balanced portfolio is flat. Plus the bank let them borrow 20x to buy it, I doubt you got such leverage for so cheap. Call them what you want but that fool has a better net worth than you or I.”

Irrelevant that houses in your neighbourhood have risen 12%. You’ll be paying more in property taxes next year, meaning you’re cash flow poorer than before. Yes, the bank may have let you borrow 95% of the purchase price (actually 19x equity… not 20x) today. But you paid the CMHC premium for the bank and they are making excess interest off of your decision. And since the new rules by the Liberals have made it more expensive for banks to make those types of loans (i.e. they have to hold more capital), there will likely be less credit available in aggregate in the future. Hopefully you won’t have troubles refinancing in 5 years, or whenever, but you never know.

“I want to believe you but I honestly don’t see a change coming. I’m a fan of science and physics. Basic Newtonian kinematics say that a body in motion will continue in motion until acted upon by a force. So what’s the precipitating event here that changes the momentum in Vancouver? It won’t be the snide remark of internet comments. Something has to happen and I don’t see anything.”

You’re right, it won’t be internet remarks on an anonymous website. But it will be the real world struggles of thousands of Boomers succumbing to old age over the next 5-10 years that is the real “equal-and-opposite force” that brings Vancouver real estate down, eventually. Some will move to the retirement village known as Vancouver Island, or some to the interior, some to the US Sun Belt, and some just 6 feet under. It’s a sad reality, but since the Boomers have had the biggest effect of driving up housing prices across the land over the past 30-40 years, they will also be its downfall since there aren’t enough human beings to replace that demand. You better pray for continued inflows of immigrants.

“By the way I heard from someone with access to the same realtor system Garth mentioned that Dec is record breaking and inventory is ~7600, a 10 year low. Prepare for the news stories in the new year.”

Perhaps. But sales volume isn’t that important in determining value. Prices and value aren’t the same thing. People are desperate, for whatever reason: fear, anxiety, herd mentality, uncertainty, keeping up with the Jones, etc. People are willing to go into debt to make it work, at least in the short term. Owner-occupier Debt, however, has its limits and it’s long-past the concept of “Productive” debt when people’s labour is disproportionately going to pay for interest and principal back than living a decent life. But everyone’s free to do as they please. If people like being cash poor, asset rich, that’s their prerogative. It’s just a shitty life to be stressed and unable to have a decent standard of living (i.e. travelling when you want to, buying nice things for the kids, eating out without being concerned about credit card bills, going to Canucks games when you want to). I guess time will tell who is on the debt edge and who isn’t. But in Vancouver, I can tell after just a few moments of conversation.

#174 Shirley valentine on 12.22.15 at 11:32 pm

#171 Smoking Man on 12.22.15 at 11:10 pm
#150 Shirley Valentine on 12.22.15 at 10:04 pm
Oh Smokey man…..is 2016 really the year you become a billionaire romance novelist!! Is 2016 the year I get a ride in the space machine

You have awoken the warrior princess in me… how did you know my middle name was Xena?? Does Mrs smokey know what she is up against.. do i?! You do know that female baboons will tear each other to bits to be the queen with the rights to teh king plasma nozzle

Oh she is a lucky feline to be have access to the plasma nozzle of the great studly smokey man.. alien beast who has the force and sees the future

…..

How can I not love two…
—-
Or 5000 was it!! Oh I can share a little bit for the health of the plasma nozzle. Sweet dreams you studly beast of an alien creature.

#175 Balmuto on 12.22.15 at 11:36 pm

#123 Mark

It’s obvious you have no data whatsoever to back up your claim that Toronto RE prices have gone down over the last two years. All you’ve provided is speculation about the causes of this supposed correction – tightening credit standards, weakening job prospects, new supply…but no evidence of the correction itself.

You’re trying to make reality fit your theory instead of adjusting your theory when it doesn’t fit reality. Looks to me like a classic case of confirmation bias. You want to avoid this as much as possible – it’s a particularly dangerous cognitive trap to fall into as an investor.

#176 Gullible on 12.22.15 at 11:37 pm

#169 Almost Retired
#162 Mark


“How do you know that the ship hasn’t already slowed down and the reduction in supply you’re seeing is on account of a reduction in prices. With potential vendors simply deciding not to list into the declining prices?”
……………………….

Wow, that was brilliant. Maybe it might help if you read a few real statistics rather than commenting on every statement that posters write on this blog.”

——————————–

You know those old commercials how smoking pot might lead to one jumping out the window of a tall building?

Reading Mark’s entries will have the same effect. You’ve been warned!

#177 Nemesis on 12.22.15 at 11:39 pm

“Oh she is a lucky feline to be have access to the plasma nozzle of the great studly smokey man.. alien beast who has the force and sees the future” – SurelyValentine

#SmokingMan&Shirley:TheDenouement…

https://youtu.be/aPPMHA65HIg

(NoteToGT: Kind of like Casablanca… well, you know, if Rick had boarded the Electra and a pregnant Ilsa was left standing in the propwash…)…

#178 Alberta Blue Blood on 12.22.15 at 11:40 pm

#135 – Wooba:: Feedly is a free service that happily reminds me to read all of Garth’s mumblings. (feedly.com)

And of course other blogs that aren’t nearly as important.

#179 millenial1982 on 12.22.15 at 11:44 pm

So what would a Garth do on the wrong side of history? A government asking for their citizens to donate their next tax rebate to pay Ontario provincial debts doesn’t pass the smell test. What a joke and a piss off. I’m not getting any warm fuzzy feelings here. Time to band together folks and look at the big picture. It’s not complicated, we’re a team taking on the world and we need to get more competitive except it’s economics not hockey capiche?!

#180 Setting the Record Straight on 12.22.15 at 11:45 pm

@
#32 Big Dipper on 12.22.15 at 5:49 pm
Fine comments except when your ideological meme kicks in.

Ever heard of Keynes? You better hope and pray that the ” hopey-changey thing” kicks in sooner then later. The only hope for Canada is massive govt spending – along the lines of Obama’s stimulus plans and more. The Con mindset of cutbacks would be disastrous.

–////——–

Hmm speaking about being the slave of some “defunct economist”

#181 You're Nuts on 12.22.15 at 11:45 pm

#3 Vancouver’s Housing Market on 12.22.15 at 4:39 pm

I think that the 12% drop in house prices in late 2008 to early 2009 was attributable to the global financial crisis, and happened in just about every real estate market in North America. Sure Vancouver is nuts, but at that time it certainly wasn’t correcting due to some tangible local condition.

#182 Rich Young on 12.22.15 at 11:45 pm

CALGARY … and I’m sick of waiting for real estate in Calgary to reflect reality. The banks refuse to foreclose, bankruptcies are up, delinquent accounts rise, homes are behind on up keep. Here I sit in a 2BR renting with a family of four and others seem to think buying up the market with all hell going on is a great idea and prices stay afloat despite inventory being a bloat. It is starting to anger me.

Who are these buying up way above 2010 prices in Calgary and why?

#183 Wooba on 12.22.15 at 11:46 pm

RE: #152 bdy sktrn

As my time will be expensive and limited, I was hoping for an app I can setup ahead of time and just have it automatically download when I open the app instead of a lot of manual intervention. However thanks for the tip, I’ll probably go with that as I have a galaxy note.

#184 Lorne on 12.22.15 at 11:50 pm

#170 CalgaryCarGuy
“The impact on the Canadian economy is well understood in Calgary, not so much in Burnaby or Mississauga. Pity.”
——————————————————————–

Several years ago when Alberta was still booming and our province and our oil based economy was being constantly dissed from all directions I thought to myself that it would be interesting to shut off the taps—shut down the industry. THEN the country would really learn how much Alberta and the oil industry really means to the Canadian economy. But, of course, how could that really ever happen in reality. It seemed to be an impossibility for it to ever happen. Well folks, here we are. It’s happening and you are about to get an education over the next year or so. Sooner or later every drop of oil in the Canadian oil sands WILL be brought to market. It just depends on how much financial pain you are willing to endure trying to deny and delay that fact before you come to the conclusion that the Canadian economy is absolutely resource based. Oil prices will rebound at some point. Not sure when yet but they surely will. Hopefully sooner rather than later.
………
I am sure you are correct…some time they will go higher…but will they ever get anywhere near where they were before? Or maybe, just maybe, this might be a wakeup call to develop more value added industries, instead of just shipping out all our raw materials? Perhaps we might also consider becoming leaders in other energy sources which are likely to be more important in the future….like solar panels, wind power, etc. Not learning from this downturn would be our biggest mistake!

#185 Leo Trollstoy on 12.22.15 at 11:54 pm

Why do you never express concern over Canada’s household debt level which trumps that of the US? Just a hater? — Garth

They’re either haters or have stayed in denial while their loyalty to a strong CA$ go down the toilet.

#186 Kenchie on 12.23.15 at 12:00 am

#192 eddy on 12.22.15 at 12:15 pm
“Logical fallacy
‘It’s been on the market for X days, hasn’t sold, therefore it is overpriced’
Tell that to your local Mercedes Benz dealer.”

Are you implying that inventory doesn’t get written down? I assure you, it does.

“Days” may not be the right time frame, but “months” is.

#187 Setting the Record Straight on 12.23.15 at 12:05 am

@#151 Greg Ellis on 12.22.15 at 10:06 pm
Canadian living in the US for twenty years. Of course Hilary will win. Vote from wonen, illegals, people wanting a free ride and not caring about enormous debt and she is a pacifist. Total abdication of responsibility and a short-sighted view. Obama part deux.
——-////
She is not a pacifist. She is a war monger. Supports a no fly zone over Syria. That’s a shooting war with Russia.
Libya, Ukraine. Supported Iraq invasion.

Trump opposed Iraq war, is against a no fly zone.
Thinks closing the border to illegal immigrants from Mexico is logical .

Thinks stopping all Muslim immigration is sensible. That’s a return to US policy pre 65. And similar to Jimmy Carter’s policy of refusing to let Iranians into the US.

#188 chapter 9 on 12.23.15 at 12:20 am

#142 SWL1976
Really America banning Muslims???
Think about that for a minute everyone..this isn’t Berlin 1939…….

Actually Trumps statements about suspending all Muslims entering into the US is perfectly legal.The laws passed in 1952 give the US government the right to deport immigrants or naturalized citizens engaged in subversive activities and also allows banning of suspected subversives from entering the country. The US constitution applies only to American citizens and not to citizens of other countries, so all of this violation of the constitution rubbish is just another example of people sticking their finger in the politically correct wind and attack those that are actually correct on the issue.

#189 OXI in GREECE on 12.23.15 at 12:32 am

For all you left wing bleeding hearts out there who think Trump is a nut bar:

http://hillaryforprison.net/t-shirts/hillary-for-prison-t-shirt-white

Do a google search…..VERY VERY popular in the USA. Just saying…..

#190 DON on 12.23.15 at 12:48 am

49 Bassrage on 12.22.15 at 6:39 pm

#1 Victoria Real Estate Update on 12.22.15 at 4:36 pm

If Victoria prices have not returned to peak levels, isn’t that because the correction you talk about (unlike Vancouver) has ALREADY occurred? It is a past event, not a future one. Prices are in fact rising here in a healthy and balanced way. I think that the fact the peak is still in the past is an indicator of present health in the Victoria market, not the converse.

************************************

Then again…when Vancouver tumbles perhaps Victoria tumbles even lower again. Peak in the past…really?. Plausible yes, but not with all the other factors trending red. Hopeful thinking…yes! Calm before the storm.

#191 DON on 12.23.15 at 12:57 am

I remember many on here stating that Trudeau didn’t have a chance early on. I’ll keep my mind open on the Trump Presidency. Who really knew Obama before his turn? Trump is well known (for better or worse). He is using the mad as hell card, patriot. He may just be a distraction, weirder things have happened…but then again it seems to be a see saw battle between overly rich families on different sides of the spectrum.

#192 bdy sktrn on 12.23.15 at 1:15 am

#162 Mark on 12.22.15 at 10:45 pm
“It’s going to take a long while and something drastic to slow this ship down.”

How do you know that the ship hasn’t already slowed down and the reduction in supply you’re seeing is on account of a reduction in prices. With potential vendors simply deciding not to list into the declining prices?
————————–
on this point (604)your are truly psychotically delusional as in out of your flipping mind.
in the face of ALL the data and hundreds of individual data points you persist. examine your inner motivations on that one.
—————————
After all, higher prices should bring out more, not less supply. So the fact that you’re seeing less supply implies that prices are already lower.
————————————-
wtf is wrong with you? are you stunned? the price is high BECAUSE the supply is finite and eroding daily in the face of steady demand. Vancouver loses hundreds(thousands?) of backyards every year never to be replaced.
————————–

Vancouver RE prices, by all measures, are still quite high historically, with many hundreds of thousands

—————————–
ahem….millions (if you had your shit together as a genx)
————————-

of dollars showered onto the average family on account of completely ‘unearned equity’. Not that many people have problems with equity. But as prices continue to fall and more people encounter problems with equity, look for those numbers to start increasing significantly.
——————————-
yeah, whatever.

hey at least gold did beat a balanced port in canadian dollars this year, sort of what you called for, but for 100% the wrong reasons.

#193 Mark on 12.23.15 at 1:23 am

“Wow, that was brilliant. Maybe it might help if you read a few real statistics rather than commenting on every statement that posters write on this blog.”

I’ve read the ‘real statistics’. Compiled by the likes of Ben Tal and company, which clearly indicate that Vancouver has seen pretty significant slack in the majority of its housing stock (see: chart 7 in particular):

http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/if_2014-0908.pdf

I’ve analyzed the data that’s before me. And I’ve ignored the RE-board created propaganda.

So the question remains, how do you know that the dearth of listings isn’t on account of falling prices?

#194 Tony on 12.23.15 at 1:23 am

My mother a gifted psychic by profession as was her mother told me Hillary would win the election in 2016. My mother died eight years ago. She could have changed a lot of things that did happen in the future but my father talked her out of many, many things telling her she could get arrested.

#195 Kreditanstalt on 12.23.15 at 1:28 am

You believe only empirically-demonstrated “facts”.
You trust government-provided statistics.
The idea of government efficacy in economic matters.
Belief in credentials, degrees, qualifications…
“The PhD. standard”!
Economics is a “science”, right?
“Aggregate demand” can be MEASURED, you think…

That’s why Garth denies the US recession.

Problem is, statists and empiricists denigrate the idea of own-eyes observation, of walking down streets, of talking to real people, of synthesizing what one sees, reads, and hears and drawing logical conclusions.

#196 bdy sktrn on 12.23.15 at 1:29 am

the 604 drop in listings is quite abrupt.

must be the massive dumps of killer POWDER happening daily on our doorstep. the boarding/skiing is so great we’re sure as hell not leaving town now. (cypress last night was heavenly – perfect still quiet air, moonlight snow covered trees, soft fluffy to crash in)


and just when you thought things would never change california is getting buried under heavy snow. drought may be history. keep it up mother nature, maybe she likes co2 after all?

#197 canuck on 12.23.15 at 1:40 am

161 Gulf Breeze on 12.22.15 at 10:43 pm

#51 Trump insures a Hillary win. Unfortunately, as Trump has shifted the goal post so far right, into true Nazi territory, anything left of that will seem reasonable. Trump gives license to the so called, ‘centrists’ to push a pretty hard right agenda, and still appear to be ‘liberal.’ It’s all relative.
_____________________________________________

No, it’s not all relative. It wasn’t all “relative” when nutley won nor was it when shiny pony won. The pendulum swings back and forth. The Americans are ahead of us on the curve and did the “lefty” thing for the last 8 years. Now it’s our turn. For America, It’s time to swing back to the right and Canadians will follow suit once the crown prince prince of Papineau spends us into deeper debt then the previous PM did that people like you no doubt complained about. I’m not about to say that Trump is going to be the nominee but he has changed the game down there… and I think it had to happen.

#198 Rich Young on 12.23.15 at 1:41 am

Unbelievable… CALGARY! The average price of a home in Calgary is actually up YOY at this point … Dec aint over but this is absolutely a sign that Humans are not the smartest beings on the planet! Frustration is at it’s peak as I’ve rented 4 years here awaiting the re-purchase of a home as we sold our place in Vernon BC and moved here to be close to family. Sucks2BeMe

#199 Rick Pery for PM on 12.23.15 at 1:48 am

Moroneau and Junior are deep in the doo doo and state that ‘outside advisors’ will need to be brought in to run things in Canada. It didn’t shock anyone that Marc Carney didn’t even stand up to shake Juniors hand when ‘Mr Fluffy’ went to the UK on his ‘selfie tour’.

If these morons want an ‘advisor I suggest they beg Rick Perry ex governor of Texas to take over the reigns and send these bozo’s a welfare cheque. Junior could redecorate his new mansion and Moroneau can get back to being the stupid little boy who inherited a fortune but knows nothing about running a business.

Texas is a real economy run by real smart people, unions and special interests are treated like they should be, …toilet paper.

But you can’t argue with success, the jobs are plentiful, wages high and life is sweet and good…..compared the swirling toilet we have under the Liberals.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/22/texas-hunkers-down-for-another-oil-bust.html

#200 Ronaldo on 12.23.15 at 2:22 am

#114 The Other Chris on 12.22.15 at 8:44 pm
@99 mike in kelowna on 12.22.15 at 8:21 pm

”It looks like Venezuela is going to have to liquidate between 12 billion and 17 billion in its gold reserves in the next year, unless it decides to default on its bonds in February.”

”With that much gold coming on to the open market, I can’t imagine gold prices rising in the next year.”

That amount will easily be absorbed by China and India who have been the biggest buyers of the metal. It would seem to me that supply and demand fundamentals no longer apply since the spot price is being determined by the paper trading where 100 times global supply trades daily. The west is allowing the east to buy up this metal on the cheap.

#201 Money Coach on 12.23.15 at 2:31 am

#107 Bobs ur uncle

You are absolutely right. People think that they are helping the people that they care about by co-signing a loan for them – but they are unwittingly doing them a disservice. They are allowing their loved ones to take on a debt that in many cases they will not be able to repay. On top of that in the event that their debt becomes over whelming the options for bankruptcy or consumer proposal may be limited unless they make the difficult choice of leaving the co-signer holding the bag. Please don’t do it, in many cases all you are doing is giving someone just enough rope to hang themselves.

#202 family beagle on 12.23.15 at 3:13 am

11. Web personalities will be traded on an index. Everybody’s looking for the next thing.

#85 Re: Winnipeg… I’ve met a dozens of people from Winnipeg and they’ve all been rather nice and quite genuine. They all spoke fondly of home and longed to return. We also learned a lot about Winnipeg in school and I was raised believing Winnipeg is the cultural and spiritual center of Canada. I’ve never been east of Medicine Hat, but if I do, I should like to visit Winnipeg, and perhaps Montreal. And Newfoundland, of course.

#203 GeniusMoney on 12.23.15 at 3:20 am

My predictions for 2016:
1. I agree with Garths predictions 2-9, but not #1.
2. Interest rate rise in USD will further crush Emerging Markets
3. Thus $$ will flood into USD & US T-bills
4. Bitcoin will reach & exceed $700 USD at its peak, but battle between BitcoinCore vs BitcoinXT will prevent further rise.
5. Ethereum will increase by over 300% to $3 at its 2016 peak.
6. Gold will exceed $1200 USD
7. CAD will break below 70 cents, but not remain there too long.
8. Oil will dip to at least $34 USD
9. Silver will touch $17.50 USD
10. Hillary Clinton will win US presidency.

#204 Ruskie Ryan on 12.23.15 at 4:25 am

Say I want to transfer in kind a Canadian dividend tax credit eligible ETF, say CPD for example, from my TFSA to a non-registered account. Can this be done without any tax implications? If I do this before January 1st, I should get the equivalent dollar value of room back in the new year plus the 2016 contribution room right? I want to make room for other equity ETF’s in there!

#205 fancy_pants on 12.23.15 at 7:26 am

expansion of point 7
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-23/calgary-woes-spread-as-oil-patch-spending-cuts-deepen-in-2016

#206 earthboundmisfit on 12.23.15 at 7:46 am

Debt free, balanced, diversified and up 7%.
82 degrees on day 3/21 in Roatan Honduras.
It’s all good.
Feliz Navidad

#207 fancy_pants on 12.23.15 at 8:04 am

#2
in the political arena, being politically correct with a long brown nose is far more effective than being honest. we’ll see if that holds true

#208 frida vann cistern on 12.23.15 at 8:13 am

Garth

Would it be fair to characterize you as a Canadianesque Trump….you should definitely run….rumble young man rumble

#209 frida vann cistern on 12.23.15 at 8:15 am

#9 For those about to flop… on 12.22.15 at 4:59 pm
All I want for Xmas is someone to donate some time to bloody well help Victoria real estate update and their Commodor 64 charts.”

LOL, He will get a lot more street cred if he progresses beyond ASCII

#210 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.23.15 at 8:31 am

@#202 family beagle
“I was raised believing Winnipeg is the cultural and spiritual center of Canada. I’ve never been east of Medicine Hat……..”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Is there some strange “Winnipeg worshiping” cult somewhere on the Pairies that I was unaware of?
Winnipeg was a train stop in its hey (hay?) day. Close to the geographic not spiritual center of Canada. They hung Metis rebels there. Had a riot there in the dirty 30’s…..They have really big floods…..and then bigger mosquitos.
It has the Canadian version of the Center for Disease control within the city limits( even ebola is scared to escape the building because of its location).
My favourite is the toxic algae blooms which are threatening to wipe out every living animal in Lake Winnipeg. Those pesky farmers and their fertilizers…..makes for an interesting swim in one of the biggest “fresh water’ lakes in North America.
*******************************************
Unbalanced. You make 80k in retirement and still live in Winterpeg? You’ve answered my queries about your name.

#211 Diana on 12.23.15 at 8:33 am

Garth,

Merry Christmas, and thank you for your always interesting, occasionally hilarious efforts here to educate and entertain. You’ve succeeded on both fronts, and I’ve been an avid reader for several years now.

May your holidays be joyous, your home blessed with prosperity, food, flavour, warmth and good cheer in the coming year.

#212 TurnerNation on 12.23.15 at 8:51 am

Why argue? A Bush or Clinton has been VP or P since 1980. Even now I cannot name current VP. It might as well be Hillary. Saturday Night Live fame.
No wonder the elites laugh.
There was another dynasty in the wings but they were removed: JFK RFK JFK jr (he would have been their T2).

Remember folks teach your kids anyone may become president of USA! ? What we are shown only is the pyramid level just above us.

Say where’d all the Haiti money raised by B & C go? Fool me once.

#213 gut check on 12.23.15 at 8:53 am

My two cents on The Trump thing:

Trump is a clown. Trump is a set up. Trump is the guy they are using to speak the ‘unspeakable’ and appeal to the masses precisely so that they can then demolish him, thereby demolishing the masses.

Trump is being used to put common sense back in its place at the back of the line behind the agenda of the globalists.

#214 Victor V on 12.23.15 at 8:57 am

Canada’s economy stalls, raising odds of further rate cut

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/news/economy/canadas-economy-didnt-grow-at-all-in-october&pubdate=2015-12-23

#215 The American on 12.23.15 at 8:58 am

At #197: Canuck, just as an FYI, the republicans aren’t winning the election next year. That’s a known given, especially when considering *how* the country is divided and the Electoral College will behave. Sure, the republicans are fantastic entertainment for everyone to watch, especially lil’ dicky Trump. It’s an epic shit show for the world to watch, and even I tune in to get a chuckle from it. But, when push comes to shove (and it does and will), the Democrats are most assuredly keeping that office for at least another four years (more likely eight). You can mark these words, and you may want to consider your portfolio with this information. She’s hell-bent on it, and history has proven she has this uncanny knack of ultimately getting her way. This isn’t wishful thinking. Its politics. Besides, she’s by far the most qualified, she’s already ran the country for 8 years with ol’ Billy, and they left us in pretty damn good shape.

Now, I am going to throw this out there… You’re gonna LOVE who she already has selected as her running mate. It’s going to make heads fucking spin. The Dems are going to be ape-shit happy with her selection, while there republicans are going to call the ultimate fowl. It will be a first in U.S. history. Yeah, she can play this game of “Look at Me” too, but she does it with more finesse and laser-precise political prowess than Trump the spoiled brat ever will. Rubio will probably make the Republican nomination (and he will be annihilated).

#216 Victor V on 12.23.15 at 9:01 am

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/news/energy/the-oil-crash-is-taking-a-heavy-toll-on-alberta-and-the-worst-is-yet-to-come&pubdate=2015-12-23

Crime is rising, home prices are falling and food banks are overwhelmed in Calgary as job losses spread. And the worst isn’t yet over in the heart of Canada’s oil patch.

Some of the city’s largest employers are poised to cut more jobs in 2016 as they reduce spending for a second straight year, adding to an estimated 40,000 oil and natural gas positions lost across the nation since the crude price rout began 18 months ago.

“We all know someone who has lost a job,” Naheed Nenshi, the city’s mayor, said in a speech this month, lamenting the “funeral”-like atmosphere in the business community.

#217 MF on 12.23.15 at 9:15 am

#197 canuck on 12.23.15 at 1:40 am

Yup. The Americans are way ahead of the curve on us with this.

We just voted in the drama teacher whose mission is to pander to selective groups regardless of the effect on the country for votes.

What is happening in the US is a big game changer indeed. Trump is personifying the anti PC movement and is speaking what many Americans are thinking.

It’s obvious. There are numerous examples of leftist leaning countries being destroyed by dumb policies all over the world (taken a look at Europe lately?). Trump also appears to want to restore American political and military dominance that Obama has weakened by trying to be nice to everyone.

#42 White Crock BC on 12.22.15 at 6:32 pm

An AlJazeera article critical of the US policy? I’m shocked (extreme sarcasm).

Complete throwaway and to be ignored.

MF

#218 Rational Optimist on 12.23.15 at 9:19 am

131 Chump on a Stump on 12.22.15 at 9:16 pm

What neighbourhood are you in? There’s a lot of hype, and in the west end (Westdale/Kirkendall) it’s all anyone seems to talk about the last two years (Hamiltonians were already kind of boring), but I’ve been walking past the same ‘For Sale’ signs for months in some cases. It’s true that some of the prices are a bit ridiculous considering what you’re getting, and where. But I also suspect they’re (eventually) being sold for a lot less than ask.

#219 Alex on 12.23.15 at 9:20 am

First and foremost, hoping everyone has a happy and healthy holiday … Wishing everyone success for 2016 … If you throw out positive waves, it comes back, if you throw out negativity, it comes back.

A very close friend of mine died of an inoperable brain tumor 18 months ago – he was an avid investor, 40 yrs old, 3 children, wealthy by most people’s standards – lots of good it did him, so keep it all in perspective.

Real estate may be the next great Canadian robbery – but I don’t see it – the powers that be will try to chip away at it but understandthat it’s the only place most Canadians have made money, where most Canadians equity lie etc etc. if you can’t afford your life when rates go to 6% then do something about it NOW and not when a gaggle of Canadians realize the same thing – for the record, that would be horrible timing, and horrible timing is something you want to avoid.

If you bought a home you can’t afford just because you can, or to keep up with the joneses (you know who you are) you better rethink that. If you bought income producing properties, manage them well, lock in your rates for as long as possible and pay down the debt – the value from day to day is irrelevant, it’s the cashflow that matters and your rate of debt retirement because as Garth says, if you think you are renewing that mortgage at sub 3% then think again – increase your rents as per the guidelines and pay down the debt – it’s a simple formula and don’t screw it up.

As far as the gov’t is concerned – my attitude is if it’s not one crook it’s another – I am very negative on politics, I rarely see a qualified individual involved because they generally have more important things to do – not sure how a kindergarten teacher qualifies for prime minister, but can only guess what would happen if I hired one to take over my businesses … You asked for it Canada, and you will get exactly what you asked for – for those of you who have not been as lucky as I have been and started accumulated income producing assets 10yrs ago … Good luck to you – I am the guy standing in the shadows waiting to buy your “stuff” on serious discount when you can’t afford it anymore.

Until then, keep working, and borrowing, and spending.

#220 Aggregator on 12.23.15 at 9:21 am

Canada Oct GDP -0.2% y/y vs exp -0.1% from +0.1%

More subprime mortgages and auto loans needed.

#221 Bottoms_Up on 12.23.15 at 9:24 am

#212 TurnerNation on 12.23.15 at 8:51 am
————————–
Biden

#222 Happy Prairie guy on 12.23.15 at 9:32 am

210 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.23.15 at 8:31 am

Running down Winterpeg is hardly fair. Sure mosquitos algai flooding may be problems but where else in Canada can you find culture with great theatre ballet symphony very affordable housing reasonable commuting to jobs.

We retired to small community an hour from Winnipeg sold our GTA home with big mortgage and bought a very nice renovatedo bungalow 1200 sq ft on big corner lot 60 x 140 for $119k now sitting comfortable with DB pensions and over200k in RRSP&RRIF. Even with the CAD we can afford 2.5 months in south US this winter.

Happy to have found your blog Garth. I remember you from attending a candidates debate in Milton ten years ago and although didnt live in riding wanted to vote for you. Have a merry Christmas.

#223 Garthsense magazine on 12.23.15 at 9:36 am

Share your thoughts. If Garth were to put out a money sense couch potato guide covering the balanced portfolio recommended, what would it look like? Specific funds/stocks/preferreds/reits. Could it all be pulled off via questrade andvsnguard etf’s and yearly rebalancing? Call it the couch Garth (Garth potato?) portfolio. Seriously, it should be a sticky post.

#224 JimH on 12.23.15 at 9:37 am

#155 Greg Ellis on 12.22.15 at 10:17 pm
“The support for Trump reflects the outrage felt by people who are sick of government as usual and in particular Obama’s dictatorship. He’s a guy who is in over his head. Just a disastrous presidency. The uninformed, uneducated are those to whom the Dems cater.”
=================================
You have to joking!

The uninformed, uneducated, angry, bigoted and racist white demographic in their 40’s and 50’s are exactly those to whom the Trump machine caters.

We are talking about 30% of the 29% of voters who are registered Republicans…

Both Patti Davis and Nancy Reagan have some harsh words for the sad pack of totally un-Presidential ‘candidates’ currently tearing the once great GOP apart.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/reagans-daughter-my-dad-would-be-so-appalled-by-gop-presidential-candidates_567824cde4b06fa6887de7be

An excellent read. As a recovering Republican voter, I too, am appalled. This used to be the ‘Party of Abraham Lincoln’?????

#225 Leo Trollstoy on 12.23.15 at 9:59 am

Easy way to identify rich from poor. The poor blame outward for bad outcomes. They focus on personally uncontrollable external factors. The rich take personal responsibility for poor outcomes. They focus on adjusting themselves. Pretty clear on these forums.

#226 gut check on 12.23.15 at 10:07 am

#224 Jim
“The uninformed, uneducated, angry, bigoted and racist white demographic in their 40’s and 50’s are exactly those to whom the Trump machine caters.”

**************************

I disagree. there is a broad cross section of people who support Trump (just my observation, I have no data)

I doubt that most of them are uninformed and uneducated but they likely are angry. They are angry because their country is changing drastically – has changed drastically – and not really for the better.

it’s so easy to call people bigoted and racist, isn’t it? Lump them all into one big category. I’m sure that if you examined your thinking you’d find that you believe they are also all male, able-bodied, pro-life, gun owners, and members of a milita.

Doing that type of labeling/categorizing of your imagined opponent is dangerous and plays right into the machine that you observe to be operating against you.

Yours is a simpleton’s argument and an appeal to the basest nature of people. You might believe it’s the opposite, but I beg to differ. Examine it. Look at the people on ‘the other side’ – listen to what they are saying in their own words on their own podcasts or read their writings. You’ll see that they are not the caricatures you imagine them to be.

I believe we’ve been trained to think that anything a white person says has to be inspected for ‘racist’ undertones and armed with that hammer you find that everything looks like a nail. Perhaps what I’m writing at this very moment will paint me as some kind of closet white-supremist in your view.

Once you go through the phase of discernment defined as ‘Liberal’ and come out the other side you’ll be able to see it. But that Liberal pit-stop offers up a lot of comforts and too many people get stuck there, never getting themselves back on the road to self discovery, integrity and truth.

I’ve been there where you are. I spent some time. I was pretty invested at one point. After continuing to learn, though, I recognized that it was not the end point of my maturation but just another honey trap.

TL:DR : binary thinking is a problem. deal with it.

#227 nakamoto on 12.23.15 at 10:08 am

Garth you rather die than admit gold was the trade for 2015. Sitting at 1500$, it’s the kryptonite of the bond market. Rates rose and so did gold. You have no clue, this is uncharted waters and you refuse to wear a life vest. When you get wiped out then you will blame the market, not your ego. It’s not like you weren’t warned 5000 times over by math wizards who know printing money cannot buy prosperity.

Gold has been a losing asset for the past five years. There is no reason to own it when neither inflation nor financial instability threaten. — Garth

#228 Renter's Revenge! on 12.23.15 at 10:18 am

It’s true. Manitoba is Canada’s best kept secret…

So shut the h*ll the up you guys, we don’t want everyone finding out about it.

#229 Basil Fawlty on 12.23.15 at 10:31 am

“Just a hater? – Garth”

No, its because I agree with your Canadian analysis, however believe that your US analysis is all rainbows and unicorns. I realize that disagreeing with you is a dirty job, but somebody has to do it.

The US is not booming. It is in recovery – a process that’s been ongoing and completely measurable. It will also continue. Those without portfolio exposure to it are fools, or blinded ideologues. Or haters. — Garth

#230 bdy sktn on 12.23.15 at 10:35 am

Say goodbye to cheap oil

Inventory drop . Price spiking.

Don’t sell that Calgary bung yet!

Maybe you should read this. — Garth

#231 Broke Dick on 12.23.15 at 10:35 am

#131 Chump on a Stump on 12.22.15 at 9:16 pm
I wish the Hamilton housing market would start to cool off. I’m seeing old houses that haven’t been updated since 1978, with less than 1,000 squ. foot of space being sold for close to $400,000. That may not sound like a lot given the state of the Toronto market not too far away, but clearly these houses are selling for way more than their true worth. People have gotten smug around here.
Anything under $600,000 is selling for an inflated price. From my observations, the $600,000+ market must have few buyers since those houses LOOK their price.
/////////////////////////////////////
You just described Toronto market circa 2006.

#232 tkid on 12.23.15 at 10:38 am

#219 A very close friend of mine died of an inoperable brain tumor 18 months ago – he was an avid investor, 40 yrs old, 3 children, wealthy by most people’s standards – lots of good it did him, so keep it all in perspective.

It gave him the peace of mind knowing his family would be financially looked after. Money doesn’t stop brain tumors, but it will buy groceries for the kids once you have left this world.

#233 Broke Dick on 12.23.15 at 10:40 am

#145 Alberta Blue Blood on 12.22.15 at 9:55 pm
Oil creep is beyond the walls of Calgary. My hubby works in the Middle East and the layoffs are coming fast and furious. These are the first layoffs he has seen there in 14 years.
/////////////////////////////////////
Is he a mercenary?

#234 Iconoclast on 12.23.15 at 11:14 am

#68 OXI:

>Interesting how NO ONE……absolutely NOBODY ever
>brings up cutting the size of our fat inefficient bloated
>overpaid underworked govt (on all three levels). Never
>ever……well Canadians……you reap what you sow.
>Good luck with that……

Once the civil service is done with their celebrating the Election of the Chosen One and get back to work in the new year, they will discover that Treasury Board still has the same plans on the books.

And of course, since the cupboards are bare, there will be a need to economize further.

The Cons talked a big game, but it was the Libs that last did major downsizing via Program Review. And now that power has shifted back to the 1% on Bay Street instead of the 1% in Calgary, it will be game on.

#235 John Prine on 12.23.15 at 11:17 am

5. Canada will have a budget deficit of $15 to $20 billion by this time next year, depending on how liberal the Liberals are.
These guys are starting from a $3 billion Harper-delivered hole

Didn’t Harper leave a $150 billion total in the last 8 years? The three billion was mailed out in cheques to upper middle class families to insure the election would be won by the Conservatives….

#236 SWL1976 on 12.23.15 at 11:21 am

#188 chapter 9

Actually Trumps statements about suspending all Muslims entering into the US is perfectly legal.The laws passed in 1952 give the US government the right to deport immigrants or naturalized citizens engaged in subversive activities and also allows banning of suspected subversives from entering the country. The US constitution applies only to American citizens and not to citizens of other countries, so all of this violation of the constitution rubbish is just another example of people sticking their finger in the politically correct wind and attack those that are actually correct on the issue.

I don’t doubt Trumps statements are legal, but that also doesn’t make them right.

Legal yes.

I just feel like if America really does want to go this way then perhaps they should lead by example and stay stay out of other countries business as well. I’m sure many Middle Eastern countries and countries the world over would love to ban Americans.

Is that right?

I don’t agree with Trump stirring the hate in America. America and American’s really need to take a long hard look in the mirror and take some accountability for their actions both at home and abroad that is leading humanity into a new found dark age.

There are no easy solutions. However, I have a pretty good idea of where more of the same will lead us

We need to evolve as a species not regress

#237 jane 24 on 12.23.15 at 11:27 am

Hi Garth there are some happy things happening.

Low oil means low driving and energy bills.

Freaky warm winter means less heating bills too.

and it is Christmas in 2 days. All winners.

#238 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.23.15 at 11:29 am

There’s a guy named Mao running a strata council in Richmond.
Kicked out the English speaking council members.
Now all meetings are in Mandarin only.
I guess, stranger things have happened.

#239 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.23.15 at 11:34 am

Talked to a guy who’s running a mid sized construction company in Vancouver.
Says business is still good, but he’s started to feel the effects of the competition from the laid off workers in Alberta.

#240 Looney Baloney on 12.23.15 at 11:36 am

Wait, isn’t Obama in heels supposed to be locked up for unauthorized storage of confidential emails or something? Oh wait that’s right, the rules only apply to you, me and your best buddies.

The demrats, as usual, are counting on female (single mommy) and black (handout) votes to put lady Obama on the hot seat. What they are overlooking, however, is how much blacks and hispanics are against moslims and illegals. The people at the bottom of the barrel know that more for thee is less for me.

All it would take is another orchestrated Paris attack or a plane crash into some tower right around election time to let fear overrule hope and change in the minds of the serfs. Trump has the billions to make that happen.

While I personally detest the man, he is the last ray of hope in barricading a US of A barrelling down towards cultural, economic and demographic suicide.

#241 Capt. Obvious on 12.23.15 at 11:40 am

Soon we’ll confirm you can’t borrow your way to prosperity, either.

Ah, didn’t the BofC all but say “Mr. Finance Minister, please borrow money and spend it because we’re out of bullets over here”? While that likely isn’t going to lead to prosperity, perhaps it will keep us from calamity. In any case, I don’t see a way around needing to support a structural shift in the Canadian economy. Many of those O&G employees are going to need to find new careers. The O&G collapse reminds me so much of the tech 1.0 bubble bursting.

#242 Looney Baloney on 12.23.15 at 11:47 am

Point #1. So the americans are borrowing their way to prosperity again. We’ve seen this show before.
Point #3. Gotta keep all that debt spending in check.
Point #4. Or by 5% if the Loonie collapses to < 50 cents
Point #5. Will the people who voted for T2 please step up and donate your tax returns to the government so we can lower our deficit?

#243 Capt. Obvious on 12.23.15 at 11:51 am

Gold has been a losing asset for the past five years. There is no reason to own it when neither inflation nor financial instability threaten. — Garth

Optimum portfolio construction would say otherwise. Since gold is not correlated with stocks or bonds it’s an ideal adder to a portfolio. e.g. Gold and US total stock market are almost entirely uncorrelated. Small exposure in percentage terms is useful.
I wouldn’t bother trying to understand where the price of gold is going to go over the short term, just use its randomness to your advantage.

#244 Serenity Now on 12.23.15 at 11:54 am

@ Rich Young # 198

I don’t know where you’re getting your numbers from. Attached and detached are both down YTD from last year, 3-4%. That’s by CREB’s numbers, so the numbers are likely greater than that. Take a look around at rentfaster.ca, brand new duplexes flooding the market because the developers can’t find anyone to buy them. If you’ve been following the Calgary market over the past few years, I think it’s pretty easy to see that prices have eased up significantly on houses over $500k.

You could always rent a bigger place. The number of rentals in the last few months have jumped, and the prices are coming down weekly.

#245 Bruce Chase on 12.23.15 at 12:08 pm

The only thing missing from the forecast is that the LEAFS will win the Stanley Cup

#246 Aggregator on 12.23.15 at 12:18 pm

Ha ha ha..

Wenzel donates $50,000 to Calgary Food Bank

Veteran home builder Cal Wenzel has pledged $50,000 to the Calgary Food Bank and is calling on others in the residential industry to follow suit.

Someone is playing Mr. Nice Guy looking for a government bailout.

#247 JimH on 12.23.15 at 12:29 pm

#226 Gut Check

This is what happens when you attempt to “think with you gut”.

You make a ton of assumptions, as noted in your opening statement that you have “no data”; just “observations”.

The data is out there. It is easy as pie to google/bing/yahoo/DuckDuckGo.

You have been cloistered under a rock if you are still ignorant of the silly claims of the ‘birthers’, the racist bigots, the anti-Muslim rants and the general anti-intellectual bias of the Trump faction! All of the above are very much in evidence at any and all Trump rallies and even more so at the Trump town hall meetings.

If you are capable of reading my post carefully, I did not say that ALL Trump supporters are “uninformed, uneducated, angry, bigoted and racist white demographic in their 40’s and 50’s”.

I did say very clearly and correctly that they “are exactly those to whom the Trump machine caters.”

This is an objective fact. You may need to get out more.

You have no idea of where I sit on the political spectrum; nor do have any idea of my values or ideals as a person. Yet, it is you who finds it so patronizingly and arrogantly easy to go on making your ignorant assumptions about me!

I have never met you. Your post appears to indicate that you are indeed just another stupid, ignorant, full-of-superficial-assumptions, and in general, just a plain old horse’s ass.

I’m sure the reality is quite different.

#248 Mark on 12.23.15 at 12:30 pm

“Optimum portfolio construction would say otherwise. Since gold is not correlated with stocks or bonds it’s an ideal adder to a portfolio. …..”

True. However, I hardly blame Garth for taking what might seem to be an overly a hard line on gold. He probably has seen his share of DIY types being dragged in by their significant others for his advice over the years with portfolios that have been loaded to the gills with (junior) gold stocks. Predictably resulting in failure, and financial (and often personal) disaster for those who bought such portfolios.

I know a guy, early 60s, quadruple bypass survivor, former compressor mechanic at a major pipeline (so made good money, but sure knew how to spend it!). Bought into all that conspiracy theory crap and decided he’d park himself infront of BNN for a couple years to ‘learn’ about all this stuff (mistake #1 — watching BNN!). A few years later, and his portfolio went from being managed in a reasonable manner, to being loaded with junior mining stocks of all kinds. And for a while it worked. But the past few years, its been nothing but disaster. Balance would have done him well, but to no avail. All his BNN-inspired babble of “baggers” has now turned to complete despair.

#249 JimH on 12.23.15 at 12:32 pm

#240 Looney Baloney on 12.23.15 at 11:36 am

Did your mother name you that?

#250 Marcus on 12.23.15 at 12:35 pm

America has problems looming. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/most-americans-have-less-than-1000-in-savings-2015-10-06

#251 Jamie Dimon on 12.23.15 at 12:47 pm

#145 Alberta Blue Blood

The reason oil companies send Canadians overseas is because they are highly trained, highly skilled productive workers. Now replace that with a worker that makes 1/10th the wage, be it from Indonesia or anywhere else, then you are going to get what you pay for.

#252 For those about to flop... on 12.23.15 at 12:48 pm

#206 earthboundmisfit on 12.23.15 at 7:46 am
Debt free, balanced, diversified and up 7%.
82 degrees on day 3/21 in Roatan Honduras.
It’s all good.
Feliz

///////////////////////////////////////////
Don’t get me wrong I’m glad you made some corn but are you sure you are b and d?
Maybe a little bit more U.S than most?
Enjoy your holiday.

#253 gut check on 12.23.15 at 1:03 pm

@ #225 Leo Trollstoy on 12.23.15 at 9:59 am

the rich have corporations and therefore don’t have to

#254 IHCTD9 on 12.23.15 at 1:06 pm

Well, Harper was finished in October 2015 – and the official deficit numbers are out for this same month – 941 Million, with a surplus having been shown for the first 7 months of the year. Looks like Harper was pretty close to knocking that deficit out after all.

I hereby formally revise my former assertion (based on what Bill said last month) that Harper left 3 Billion – to the actual official number of 941 Million.

I’ll round that up to 1 Billion just to be nice to T2 – plus, that will make it easier later on allowing us to do things like simply state that Trudeau left 15X or 20X the deficit after one year than Harper left after 10 years.

Or that based on T2’s first year fiscal performance, we can easily extrapolate that he will leave 70X or 80X the debt in 4 years compared to Harper after 10.

Or we could easily remember the numbers when we state that Trudeau will leave Canadians 3X the debt in 2.5 months in office, than Harper did in 10 years.

Easy Parcheesi!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ottawa-posts-941m-deficit-for-october-1.3376881

#255 Ronaldo on 12.23.15 at 1:18 pm

Seems the TMX has awoken. Nice rally happening this morning. Will be interesting to see if it can repeat its 1000+ point advance from the Dec. 15/14 low of 13705 to Jan. 2/15 close at 14753..

The Dec. 14 low this year was 12617 and now 13256 up 639 points or 5% over the past 9 days. Only 361 points to go and a few more trading days. Would still put the TSX down about a bit over 1000 for the year. Some nice movement in the oil and PM stocks. Mid December is usually a good time to pick up bargains after tax loss selling is about done. Considering this was a bad year the balanced, diversified and liquid portfolio is up near 6% year to date. Can’t complain with that.

#256 Loyal Fan on 12.23.15 at 1:30 pm

LOVE all your pictures Garth!

Read your post few times a week and refer you to my husband as Garthy.

#257 Retired Boomer WI on 12.23.15 at 1:32 pm

Still think this one post is probably your best one this year.

10 things people should expect.

1. Yes. Hope you are right on that one. We could use it.

2. Hillary -you might be correct, let’s hope not!

3. Interest rates can go up 2% I’d be happy if the
economy can handle the ride. The year after finish the
rise to about 3.5% or 4% where normal is said to
reside.

4. Despite protests, Candid will follow the US.

5. Residents there CAN determine how tax dollars are
spent, and how much of them are spent. “NO” works.

6. Looks that way just now…

7. If Oil & commodities sucks, Canada’s economy sucks.

8. Speculate away here… I don’t know, don’t care, who
does? Won’t bring oil back. Wise rent right now.

9. Yup, your set to get TAX Reamed!! we revolted over it.

10. Hot One may turn to ‘DUD’ …still early, slow brains.

I am not in concordance with your last line on comment 5.
“If I weren’t dried-up old Boomer on the correct side of history, I might care.”

Sir, if you didn’t ‘care’ I seriously question your personal investment of time, resources, and dedication to write, and monitor this wonderfully pathetic blog.

I along with numerous others wish to acknowledge that reality, and hope you, Dorothy, and Bandit have the Best of the Holidays!

P.S. I tried counted my ‘Blessings’ over the past year, and the calculus was incredible! Hope all find the same

#258 For those about to flop... on 12.23.15 at 1:33 pm

#245 Bruce Chase on 12.23.15 at 12:08 pm
The only thing missing from the forecast is that the LEAFS will win the Stanley Cup

///////////////////////////////////////////

This statement got me thinking of a multiple choice question.
What happens first?
A) Leafs win the cup
B) Oil goes above $100 a barrel
C) Canadian dollar back to par with USD

Anyone with some time to kill…

#259 Bram on 12.23.15 at 1:34 pm

#229
The US is not booming. It is in recovery – a process that’s been ongoing and completely measurable. It will also continue. Those without portfolio exposure to it are fools, or blinded ideologues. Or haters. — Garth

It seems that your portfolio needs CHINA exposure, not US exposure. Here’s the GDP growth (historic and forecast):

http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects/summary-table

So, skip US and go straight to Asia?

Bram

#260 Bytor the Snow Dog on 12.23.15 at 1:36 pm

@ The American- Bill would make an excellent VP- After all he has presidential experience.

@226 Gut Check re: Binary thinking- kind of like a man pointing out how something advantages women = misogyny right?

#261 TD Bank on 12.23.15 at 1:40 pm

We (TD) have just released a statement and had said that rates in Canada will be at 0.5% for at least 2 years more.

—————————————————–

WTF? I though we raised with the USA 91% of the time? Is the 50 cent Loonie a real possibility or is the USA in some sort of trouble?

#262 prairie person on 12.23.15 at 1:51 pm

These are the people who know exactly how the economy is in Alberta. No RE nonsense of fudged figures.

“In some ways, every recession is the same in that the first thing that goes are the toys — so the motorcycles, the fifth-wheel trailer, the campers, the cottage,” he said.

“All the extras go first. And then people work their way down to more basic things — the house and the car being the last two payments that they would default on.”

Shortridge said he doesn’t think the full impact has hit yet, as many laid off employees are still able to make ends meet thanks to severance packages. Once those run out, he expects to be even busier.

#263 Almost Retired on 12.23.15 at 1:55 pm

Here is an excerpt from a Tom Bradley article with the G&M. He recaps the main investment events from 2015. Here is what he had to say about preferreds:

“Plummeting preferreds”

“If you’d tried to tell me in January that preferred shares would be one of the worst performing asset classes in 2015, I’d have questioned your credibility. Scratching my head, I’d have guessed that interest rates must have gone up significantly, pushing preferred yields higher and prices lower.

Nope, the reason for the preferred meltdown was a feature highlighted in the name of the shares – rate reset. This feature ultimately devastated many retired investors’ portfolios. An enduring mystery will be why this country’s financial advisers didn’t clue their clients in ahead of time.”
———————————————
I was always under the impression (mostly from reading this blog) that as interest rates rose, that preferred’s prices would rise accordingly. The author seems to suggest just the opposite. He blames the entire plunge on rate resets – which will probably continue.

I guess he makes sense because even though prices of preferreds has dropped drastically, yields haven’t risen by much.

It makes me question they’re inevitability. What am I missing?

#264 Almost Retired on 12.23.15 at 2:01 pm

“inevitability”

I meant investabilty – spell check.

#265 dr. talc on 12.23.15 at 2:16 pm

@225 Leo
There’s an old joke about incomes,

Rich. Your name is on the building
Middle. Your name is on your office door.
Lower. Your name is on your shirt.

Update,
Uber rich, no one’s ever heard of you

#266 robert james on 12.23.15 at 2:23 pm

The Repo business is booming in Cowtown.. http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/firms+that+repossess+cars+oversee+evictions+working+flat+amid/11610107/story.html

#267 saskatoon on 12.23.15 at 2:43 pm

#247 JimH

dude…

you don’t even know what quantitative easing is…

as previously established.

lol.

#268 Mark on 12.23.15 at 2:51 pm

“The Repo business is booming in Cowtown.. ”

Indeed. Just talked to a friend in Airdrie this morning. Seperated from his common law wife, and they haven’t made a payment on their 2-year-old newly built house in 6 months. Put minimal down. The lender basically doesn’t care. For a while he was stressing out about finding an apartment and had actually moved out — but when he realized that there was nobody coming to ‘take’ the house, he moved back in. Actually posted a photo on Facebook the other day of his son playing in a small portable swimming pool he had set up in the kitchen for his son.

I wonder how many houses in the area this describes? Seems to me that everyone wants to avoid true price discovery as much as possible. The CMHC must be involved to some extent — anyone know if there’s any way of prying any correspondence or official guidance to lenders out of the CMHC through FOIP or similar?

I was always under the impression (mostly from reading this blog) that as interest rates rose, that preferred’s prices would rise accordingly.

Generally preferreds would be inversely correlated to interest rates, ie: as rates go up, preferred values go down. But since they occupy a unique position in the capital hierarchy between common equity and senior debt, they do have some sensitivity to equity valuations. Which is probably what has been more influential as of late.

#269 Mark on 12.23.15 at 2:53 pm

“But since they occupy a unique position in the capital hierarchy between common equity and senior debt”

My apologies, I meant “junior debt” or ‘subordinated debt’. Wouldn’t want to mislead anyone here as to what a preferred share is.

#270 MF on 12.23.15 at 2:54 pm

#224 JimH on 12.23.15 at 9:37 am

Uh no.

You know any American younger than 40?

Go on other forums where you have a majority under 35 demographic and you will find tons of support for Trump.

Obama is seen as a weak pandering liar who just talks about everything and does nothing.

MF

#271 TurnerNation on 12.23.15 at 3:08 pm

Who is saying commodities are dead? Look at oil and natural gas lately. Maybe it is as people say – as was early 90s: housing down and TSX uppa up.

#272 Habs76-79 on 12.23.15 at 3:19 pm

As to the next POTUS. Trump is a master of marketing and is running his campaign much as a business and not as a typical political panderer. Hillary is the biggest sleazeball panderer today. I bet if one shook her hand they’d want to wash theirs quickly. Hillary as Sec. State. after Qaddafi was killed. she said ” WE CAME! HE DIED!” followed by a sick maniacal laughter from Hillary.

But lets look at POTUS history.

I was having a discussion with my dad about US politics and the history of POTUS. Believe it or not Americans generally pick the better of TWO evils.

2012: Obama vs Romney, Obama won and was the better of two choices as it was his second term and Romny looked like an a back from injury, RNC bull pen relief pitcher by the time 2012 came.

2008: Obama vs McCain, Obama won, McCain (with dough head Palin)would probably have the USA and us at war with Russia by now if he’d won.

2004: GW Bush vs Kerry, GW Bush won, and looking at Kerry as Sec. of State he’s a bigger blow hard, idiot and hawk than GW Bush looked.

2000: GW Bush vs Gore, TWO HORRIBLE CHOICES ended in a TIE but GW Bush took office and looking at Gore and his billionaire status climate change doomer and liar, he would have been worse than the idiot GW Bush was.

1996: Clinton vs Dole, Clinton won, even with Bill’s under pants problem he was still smarter and more in to what was going on than the tired old man Dole was.

1992: Clinton vs Bush Sr., Clinton won, Bush Sr. was too toxic, too short sighted and too lame to be given a second term even after also serving 2 terms as a VP to Reagan. Clinton represented change, good or bad.

1988: Bush Sr. vs Dukakis, Bush Sr. won. IT WAS DUKAKIS, what more do I have to say as to why Bush Sr won. A Tree stump would have beaten Dukakis

1984: Reagan vs Mondale, Reagan won, a strong first term a president vs a rather blah and visionless Mondale.

1980: Reagan vs Carter, Reagan won. Cater a nice guy did bring peace between Israel and Egypt, bu also wore Iran hostage situation and could not get a good grip on a bad economy. Reagan like Clinton 1992 represented change good or bad.

I could go on, but look at the rather lousy lists of choices put forth by DNC and RNC over the years, I think the average American picks the better of the two more often than not. One can go back to JFK vs Nixon and agree with this.

JFK was likely the last true positive hope for POTUS we have seen in over a 1/2 century. And he was assassinated.

Trump vs Hillary Clinton, with all her dirt and arrogance, I say Trump and as a populist, he reads middle America best, right or wrong and comes off as not a typical slimy US politician. Trump has a very good chance of being POTUS after Nov. 2016.

#273 tkid on 12.23.15 at 3:22 pm

“Plummeting preferreds”

Plummeting Canadian preferreds. I bought PFF (US preferreds ETF) for my TFSA back in May. Between the increase in share price (in Cdn $) and the dividends I made over $6000. That’s after paying US taxes on the dividends.

Garth’ll tell you I have an unbalanced portfolio, but why invest in Canada when the US is doing so well and we’re so vulnerable to the price of oil? I don’t like the news I’m hearing out of China or Europe, so I’m holding off on investing there. And like I told a coworker, I like paying one fee to buy a whole lot of US companies, which is why I stick to ETFs.

I need to rebalance tho’.

#274 Jerry McFall on 12.23.15 at 3:24 pm

Garth…..Merry Xmas….this is not the right time of year to rip you a new one. God Bless us all…..even Junior.

#275 AlbertaShrugged on 12.23.15 at 3:40 pm

What happens when the economic engine of Canada shrugs its shoulders? (not by design, but we’ll soon find out) #AlbertaShrugged

#276 robert james on 12.23.15 at 3:40 pm

More Cowtown misery.. The media is really giving it a ride… I feel sorry for these people…..http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/the-oil-crash-is-taking-a-heavy-toll-on-alberta-and-the-worst-is-yet-to-come?__lsa=262d-f3f3

#277 IHCTD9 on 12.23.15 at 3:42 pm

#265 dr. talc on 12.23.15 at 2:16 pm

Uber rich, no one’s ever heard of you

__________________________________________

Worked for a guy who’s business was owned 51% by one of these fellows. Type his name into Google – almost nothing other than a bit of philanthropy, no Wikipedia, no facebook, no twitter. Everyone in the industry knows who he is though. No public ownership, no minority ownership, really nice old guy actually.

#278 BG on 12.23.15 at 3:53 pm

Garth, are you throwing away comments without even granting them a DELETED post?

Happened twice to me in a couple of month, and twice I was posting something about you being wrong, without any offensive word.

They all were. — Garth

#279 gut check on 12.23.15 at 4:11 pm

#260 Bytor the Snow Dog on 12.23.15 at 1:36 pm

@226 Gut Check re: Binary thinking- kind of like a man pointing out how something advantages women = misogyny right?

****************************

you have issues. I have never said that.

#280 To "The American", "JimH" and other exceptionalists on 12.23.15 at 5:22 pm

Re #215 The American:

“But, when push comes to shove (and it does and will), the Democrats are most assuredly keeping that office for at least another four years (more likely eight). You can mark these words, and you may want to consider your portfolio with this information. She’s hell-bent on it, and history has proven she has this uncanny knack of ultimately getting her way. This isn’t wishful thinking. Its politics. Besides, she’s by far the most qualified, she’s already ran the country for 8 years with ol’ Billy, and they left us in pretty damn good shape.

Now, I am going to throw this out there… You’re gonna LOVE who she already has selected as her running mate. It’s going to make heads fucking spin. The Dems are going to be ape-shit happy with her selection, while there republicans are going to call the ultimate fowl. It will be a first in U.S. history….”
===================================

Not an “American” like you, JimH or the other supporters of the “American” exceptionalism but I like your way of thinking.

Let’s see – Hitlary comes to power in 2016 (reality 2017) and spends 8 years in power sharing the throne with her husband.

2017 plus 8 is year 2025 and what is interesting is that there is sort of prediction for the USA (and rest of world too) for exactly that 2025:

http://www.deagel.com/country/United-States-of-America_c0001.aspx

See – once upon a time there was the great Roman empire. And that Roman empire did not dissapear in the history’s dustbin in a day, week, month or even a year. It took tens and tens of years.
With the above my heart , my mind and I hope and pray that billions of people worldwide share the same understanding – we all root for you and “your” Hillary.

With her in power that transition for world superpower to another “hasbeen” will be fast and furious.

And we will need this to be fast – it is after all for the sake of our kids and grand-kids. Lets give them a fighting chance!
==============

PS for Garth and his “American rates will increase two to four time”

There wont be another rate increase in 2016 – this is election year and the FEDs wont rock the boat. They will use the “stick” (talking tough about raising rates) but they will not action on this talk. After that they’ve now got the experience and know they can act for another year, two or three before been forced by the market again!
And regarding these words “rate normalization” – I should remind you that the honorable BB (Edward Quince) has said that there wont be a rate normalization in his lifetime!

#281 canuck on 12.23.15 at 5:23 pm

215 The American on 12.23.15 at 8:58 am

At #197: Canuck, just as an FYI, the republicans aren’t winning the election next year. That’s a known given, especially blah, blah, blah…

Now, I am going to throw this out there… more blah blah, blah….than Trump the spoiled brat ever will. Rubio will probably make the Republican nomination (and he will be annihilated).
_____________________________________________

Please let us know when you’ve pulled your head out of the ether bottle.

#282 Rob on 12.23.15 at 8:31 pm

Being tricky Garth? In the second paragraph you mention that gold dropped from $1300 to $1050 which is correct in USD. However, we are in Canada, and gold is up 7.9% YTD in Canadian dollars which is not bad for a barbarous relic.

http://goldprice.org/gold-price-canada.html

#283 moist millennial on 12.23.15 at 9:41 pm

The fact that this story persists tells us all everything we need to know about why we’re screwed http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2015/12/23/life-after-viral-jordan-axani-reflects-on-a-year-in-the-spotlight-following-trip-around-the-world.html

#284 rvs on 12.24.15 at 12:02 pm

DELETED