Nabbed

NABBED modified

Tom sells cars. Brenda teaches. “Thank God for that,” he says, “with the way people in Calgary are feeling lately. My worst year.”

So they decided eight months ago to get liquid and sell their house, starting out at $849,900 – the price their realtor suggested would result in “some solid action.” But, crickets. Few showings, no offers, then nothing. Over the course of the next half-year there were two price reductions, taking it to $819,000, then $799,900. “That’s the psychological break point, the real estate guy told us,” says Tom. Two more showings, no paper.

A few weeks ago, as oil descended into the mid-thirty range, they did a big cut – to less than $750,000. “And finally,” Brenda says, “we snared one. What a bittersweet night that was.” They now have a firm deal for $729,000. After commission, plus the closing costs when they bought, it’s about what they paid in 2007. “Just so happy to get out.”

Here’s the interesting point: to Brenda and Tom it took more than 240 days to sell their property, and they ended up getting $120,000 under the asking price – or a 14% haircut. But for the Calgary Real Estate Board, this was a big win. In CREB’s official stats, the house sold in just 9 days and for 97.3% of the listing price.

How could that be?

Simple. Every time a listing expires and is replaced by a fresh one, it’s a brand new listing for a property hitting the market for the first time. Every price reduction brings a full reset. And the final selling price is expressed as a percentage of the last (lowered) value, with no relation to the original ask. So as Tom and Brenda’s two-story house south of the airport demonstrates, the official numbers give a false impression of actual market conditions. In a word, they’re fraudulent.

And here are the latest ones:

1CREB

So, do houses in a city reeling from a commodity crash in a province which has suffered 80,000 lost jobs really sell in 48 days? Has the average price really declined by only 0.15%? After all, this pathetic blog recently reported on luxury homes in a tony part of the Cowtown region that went at auction for discounts of up to 60%. How can there be such a glaring discrepancy? And if this kind of realtor diddling is going on in Calgary, should we assume it’s also happening in Toronto? Vancouver?

Pierre wonders about that. He’s been renting in Calgary for a few years, but now a bad case of rug rats has him out seeking a single detached house. “My intention is to buy a place that is no more than 3.5 times my gross salary, even though we have been pre-approved for 6 times my gross salary,” he tells me.  “My wife is currently a stay at home mom and will get back to the work force once the younger one’s in school full-time, but we want to be able to sustain ourselves with my salary alone. I followed your advice and found a very good realtor. Being an engineer and stats junkie, he accepted to give me access to the website used by realtors, which gives you all the data you would need to make an informed decision but for some reason in Canada we don’t have easy access to.”

Well, Pierre nabbed these observations for us.

  • Daily, there are two to three times more “price decrease” or “new listings” than “sold”, even at this time of the season.
  • The “days on market” statistic given on the creb.com website is underestimated by a wide margin. Most get re-listed multiple times (with price decreases generally) which resets the “Days on Market”, meaning a listing can have been in the market for 200 days and yet, if it sells, the DOM would be since the last re-list, maybe 20 days. I couldn’t find an easy way to export all the data from their website to a spreadsheet to make an exact calculation, but I would guess from what I have seen that the average DOM is probably between 90 and 120 currently (and even that may be optimistic actually).
  • For the same reason as above, the average and median price decline is grossly underestimated by CREB. It’s not uncommon for older houses to sell at the same price as they were sold in 2007/2008. I know about a handful of newer houses (built since 2005) that have been sold below the price they were bought in 2012-2013.
  • Yesterday, we went to visit quite a few show homes in a new community deep in the south. In all the visits, we only saw one other couple. I asked one sales person the price of the show home we were visiting, and her answer was exactly: “I can’t tell you now. A few months ago, I would have told you $540K, but in the current market, I don’t know how much this house would sell for”. Even better, a house that they used to sell for $523K (as still advertised on their website), is now priced at $485K, or 7.3% less, with an additional $10K worth of upgrades “for free”.

“With all the above,” concludes Pierre, “my assessment is that the market has already corrected by 10% in Calgary, and if current conditions remain, the market will correct much further. My realtor told me he expected another 10% down between January/February. We’ll see if this turns out to be true, but it’s certainly a buyer’s market right now.”

This raises questions posed on this pathetic blog in the past. Like, if realtors control and report all of the statistics, who’s controlling them? With no transparency on when a house was first listed, and at what price, how can we actually know current market conditions? By hiding true days-on-market stats, aren’t buyers being denied key information about the sellers? Doesn’t this obfuscation ensure we won’t know a market has changed course abruptly until well after it’s happened, trapping many? And, isn’t forcing realtor disclosure the best, cheapest way to serve consumers?

Just imagine if the prices of financial securities were handled this way.  My best friends would be in jail.

239 comments ↓

#1 Bananasan on 12.21.15 at 4:59 pm

Hey Garth, may I suggest taxidermy as the most conservative conservation solution for your rightwing dingdongs collection of people posting comments here? I see most are Trump-size nutbars which is a statistical anomaly hard to explain given the relative population sizes of the USA versus the Canada. Must be something in the aurora to generate that fat tail wart on the Bell curve. Or is it that the mean interval *is* the fat tail…

#2 zedgt87 on 12.21.15 at 5:00 pm

The obfuscation of market information really really hits me in a bad way.

The only reason i’d consider a realtor to buy a house is so I can gain access to the market information.

Of course its by design. Its time for some disruption in this arena.

#3 Sheane Wallace on 12.21.15 at 5:03 pm

Just when you think it can’t get worse in the mental institution that we live in:

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/lifestyle/family/liberals-plan-to-make-spanking-illegal/ar-BBnN83L?li=AAggNb9

#4 Harbour on 12.21.15 at 5:05 pm

Buying a house in Canada is liking playing the Grey Sheets.

No bid or ask or market depth… just play blind.

#5 Karl hungus on 12.21.15 at 5:07 pm

Why would you count the original reduced price from a delusional home owner? That’s like if I thought COS was really worth $20 per share, but I could only sell it for $10. I wouldn’t say I reduced the price by 50%, I was just being delusional. No different then the home owners in your story.

Final sale price is the only number that really matters

#6 TurnerNation on 12.21.15 at 5:07 pm

South of the airport is in dreaded NE area of the city.
No wonder. Houses would better sell with trained attack dog offered as move in bonus.

It has an area named Marlboro for goodness sake! #smokingmen?

#7 Broke Dick on 12.21.15 at 5:09 pm

Why are people so hung up on the sale price of the home in relation to the asking price?
Cause it doesn’t really matter what the ask is, high or low.

#8 pinstripe on 12.21.15 at 5:14 pm

Calgary real estate is only the tip of the iceberg.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-finance-minister-joe-ceci-warns-spending-promises-in-peril-1.3375294

#9 NoOneOfConsequence on 12.21.15 at 5:14 pm

It is time to change the rules – force disclosure of the true facts.
But who would do this? If banks, governments and real estate companies are complicit and benefit from the “fraud”…where do we turn?

Oh…and where are all the oil humpers these days? Isn’t it about time they showed their faces around this blog and admitted they were completely and utterly wrong?

I remember seeing many, many comments about oil coming back, $200 around the corner, blah blah blah.

#10 Victoria Real Estate Update on 12.21.15 at 5:15 pm

TERANET’S INDEX NUMBERS SUSPICIOUS FOR VICTORIA

The bankers at Teranet have released questionable numbers for Victoria for the month of November.

Teranet’s index includes all types of homes – single family homes (houses), condos and townhouses.

Teranet claims that house prices in Victoria are currently 2.2% higher than the peak reached in 2010. This claim seems dishonest. Here’s why.

The Victoria board’s price index shows that prices of SFHs, condos and townhouses in November were all below the peak of April 2010.

Percent below peak:
SFHs: -1.6%
Condos: – 4.5%
Townhouses: – 6.2%

According to the Victoria board’s price index, house prices are, overall, 2.9% below peak.

Victoria board’s index: – 2.9% (below peak)
Teranet’s index: + 2.2% (above peak)

That’s a difference of 5.1%.

Should we trust either of these claims or dismiss both?

The Victoria board’s index is part of the same Canada-wide index that Calgary belongs to. Garth broke the story that the sales of two houses in Priddis (each for 60% below appraised value) were not included in the monthly stats compiled by the Calgary R/E board.

This casts doubt on the results of the Calgary board’s price index (upward biased), which automatically casts doubt on the Victoria board’s index as well, since they both belong to the same countrywide index.

R/E agents and bankers have a vested interest in keeping house prices high in Canada.

If the Victoria board’s index results are questionable (upward biased) then that must mean that Teranet’s index results for Victoria are even more questionable and more upward biased.

House prices in Victoria are still, perhaps, 5-10% below peak, despite record-low interest rates.

Things have been bad enough for mortgage holders in Victoria since 2008, despite emergency rates, and it’s about to get a lot worse for them. The problem: rising rates. House prices fall as rates rise.

The US Fed has begun its normalization process and Canadian 5-year fixed mortgage rates will be north of 5% within 2 to 3 years.

As well, the Canadian economy continues to falter and this is bad for house prices. Canada was the only G7 country to be in recession in 2015. The price of oil has crashed. This has affected the finances of Canadian families from coast to coast and the problem will likely continue for several years.

House prices in Victoria will fall to depths that will shock mortgage holders and it won’t take long for that to happen once house prices across Canada have begun to correct. Major national housing price corrections take 3 to 6 years to play out.

It won’t be different in Victoria.

#11 Why Why Jay on 12.21.15 at 5:17 pm

Super sketchy. Not sure if each realty board has their own system or what but in the local market a price drop does not reset the Dom. Dom jeeps ticking up until the listing gets pulled and relisted (which I assume incurs a new listing fee). I’ve only seen that tactic on real stinkers that have been on the market much too long (and I’m not even sure if it’s tactical relisting or booting the realtor for a new one).

I know a few realtors and get daily updates on price drops and pending listings for detached sfh. It’s strange in Victoria right now. Limited inventory. Good stuff goes quick or gets bid up (places with suites are hot hot hot), stinkers sit and drop prices. Back in 08 anything short of a tear down was going quick. It’s definitely not a buyer’s market, but I wouldn’t call it a seller’s either. The realtors seem to be happy. Good turn over and they are doing well for the season. Of course victoria isn’t half as bloated as yvr. Still difficult for your average family to buy a house (hence the popularity of income suites.. Legal or not), but no where near the unreachable heights of Vancouver’s market.

Be interesting to see if the new down payment rules or increased mortgage rates cool of the usually hot spring season.

#12 Mark on 12.21.15 at 5:20 pm

Considering that oil stocks (ie: the XEG ETF) are back to 2004 prices, Calgary RE sellers are awfully lucky that they can still get 2007 prices. Calgary pricing has been melting away for a few years now (even when oil was $100, and even prior to the notorious “F” announcement in Budget 2013 of changes to CMHC that marked the broader top of Canadian RE), and only the rental tightness in the aftermath of the floods somewhat covered up the deteriorating situation.

Of course that didn’t stop a completely ignorant Realtor from Calgary from trolling me on that “other” forum I used to frequent. I offered to meet him at a Tim Hortons and show him the datasets I had compiled, but only got a bunch of threatening remarks in return.

#13 Chaddywack on 12.21.15 at 5:27 pm

Wonder if the day will come that we ever see this happen in Vancouver.

If you offer below asking price or with subjects here the realtors just laugh in your face.

#14 Lulu on 12.21.15 at 5:30 pm

Even in toronto, i check daily on the realtor version of the mls price bracket max to 475000 cad, the condo sector is very slow and often you will see price reduction after a month of two, if still not sold, re-list with a new price and a couple if not few more months, then sold. However the SFH is a complete different story, homes that under 475k in toronto often sold within days with multiple offers, slightly over the asking price or more because of low asking price.

#15 Nanaimo Bar on 12.21.15 at 5:32 pm

Time for Regulation. Make the same screen available to everyone.

Oh yeah, I just about forgot. USA! USA! USA! And God Bless America ( Kate Smith version though, Live at the Spectrum in Philadelphia)

USD/CAN – USD long!!!

#16 2016 oil, C$ and rates on 12.21.15 at 5:37 pm

Oil doesn’t even need to fall further. It probably will because of Iran. The damage to Canada’s overall economy is done.

C$ will go to 65 cents, possibly lower. There is no upside to the Canadian manufacturing sector contrary to popular belief.

Poloz will need to act after summer and start raising at least 50 points in H2 to stop the bleeding of C$ flight to safety in USD and EUR.

Canada is in the same boat as Brazil and Russia when it comes to its national currencies.

Anyone trying to capitalize on the RE market in H1 2016 will get hurt, some less and some more.
The valuations are crap. The sellers are still delusional and thinking the low interest quasi free money binge will last forever.

Not so.

#17 Calgary real estate and Canadian Oil Dream on 12.21.15 at 5:38 pm

Calgary real estate is the victim of the Canadian Oil Dream.

Canadian Oil Dream: investing insane amount of money, developing provincial and national economic policy in producing a commodity that can be produced at half price or less by other market players.

More insane than real estate in Canada, by all measures.

#18 Harbour on 12.21.15 at 5:38 pm

I like Zillow in the U.S.

It gives the price history online each time it was bought and sold and the other homes in the neighborhood

You definitely get the stats of how much a home has appreciated or depreciated over time.

#19 Mr. Frugal on 12.21.15 at 5:54 pm

#1 Bananasan on 12.21.15 at 4:59 pm
Hey Garth, may I suggest taxidermy as the most conservative conservation solution for your rightwing dingdongs collection of people posting comments here? I see most are Trump-size nutbars which is a statistical anomaly hard to explain given the relative population sizes of the USA versus the Canada. Must be something in the aurora to generate that fat tail wart on the Bell curve. Or is it that the mean interval *is* the fat tail…

================

Another Liberal troll with nothing constructive to add. What else is new. I’m just amazed that somebody this stupid knows what a bell curve is.

#20 Ren 0h on 12.21.15 at 5:54 pm

I know this is not quite on today’s topic, but is aligned with all things Greater Fool.

In spring I plan to renovate my bathroom and do some bedroom built-ins. Old house, it’s time.

I have a bunch of liquid money for a portion of the work, but likely need to draw 8k out of the pot.

Q: For long term tax optimization, is this best taken from my non-registered investments, or tfsa?

thanks!

#21 Nanaimo Bar on 12.21.15 at 5:55 pm

Just finished the weekly task of reviewing my Private Services Client from my Realtor in Victoira Bc. For the month of December, for houses between $300,000 – $500,000. I am showing 3 sold houses and fifteen New listing. Does not include condos or townhouses, just Single Family homes.

I turned to my wife and said, “Only 3 houses sold in December so far.”

She replied, ” That is understandable. Who wants to buy a house this close to Xmas and have to move?”

I replied, “But who would want ant to sell their house this close to Xmas and move?”

Private Client Services
MLS activity – Victoria, Saanich East, Saanich West, Esquimalt, View Royal,

Criteria – Single Family Home, Price Range $300,000 – $500,000

December Activity to date December 21, 2015

15 New House listing
3 Houses Sold
2 were taken off the market.

#22 Bytor the Snow Dog on 12.21.15 at 5:57 pm

I agree with others above that the original asking price can be a sign of delusion for the homeowner and realtor. Garth you are correct in that the days on market number is the most important. If that number were known prices in some areas would fall like a giant icy turd from a 747.

#23 Dirt Dog on 12.21.15 at 5:57 pm

Sounds like the realtor was “buying” the listing. Often telling the Seller the price they want to hear to secure the listing. Then trying to get the price down.
Happens all the time. Sometimes the seller changes realtor because it has not sold over the listing contract time period. New realtor=new listing, no mention of the previous time on the market.
There are lots of good realtors out there and they will provide you with all the info you want. Look for experiance and ask the right questions.

#24 Only-inflation-to-reduce-debt-burden on 12.21.15 at 5:58 pm

Calgary real estate belongs to Canada where Toronto RE and Vancouver RE belong to the world meaning they are no longer only influenced domestically but rather have caught the attention of the international investor.

London UK has recently put up blocks to the foreign investor so the immediate response was a huge influx to NY City of big-money.

Not-so-big-money comes to Canada so all you blog-dogs commenting about the bottom about to fall out of our two RE cities are really appearing quite pathetic.

These 2 markets may take a breather,, but drop,, unlikely… The phrase for us homies has become “Go Big or Stay Home”.

#25 Canadian Zillow on 12.21.15 at 5:59 pm

#18 Harbour on 12.21.15 at 5:38 pm

I like Zillow in the U.S.

It gives the price history online each time it was bought and sold and the other homes in the neighborhood

You definitely get the stats of how much a home has appreciated or depreciated over time.

====

It is criminal, that the equivalent of Zillow can’t exist in Canada.

A class action suit against the government for failing and refusing to legislate transparency in real estate data could be the only solution to change it.

#26 Renter's Revenge! on 12.21.15 at 6:00 pm

Garth,

I know we shall not worship any blog before this one, but what if we take a small interest in the one below?

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-21/odd-lots-calculated-risk-doris-dungey

#27 Wet Clean Up on Aisle 4 on 12.21.15 at 6:02 pm

http://www.housingwire.com/blogs/1-rewired/post/35873-are-real-estate-agents-the-most-unprofessional-professionals?eid=311700679&bid=1261955

#28 Rexx Rock on 12.21.15 at 6:03 pm

Buying a house outside of Vancouver,Toronto and Victoria is to risky for an investment.At least in these 3 cities the economy is booming and has a tight rental market.Stick to best and leave the rest.The pride of home ownership is very strong in Victoria and ham flooding the area you can’t go wrong buying a house in this beautiful city.

What HAM? The local board has stats to prove fewer than 2% of sales go to offshore buyers? You made that up. — Garth

#29 Vancouver's Housing Market on 12.21.15 at 6:06 pm

Those of you who think it’s different in Vancouver are wrong.

Let’s take a look at some of the history of Vancouver’s housing market.

In 2008-09, house prices in Vancouver fell at a rate of 14.2% per year (for 10 months) until interest rates were suddenly slashed from near-normal to emergency levels.

. . . . . Vancouver House Prices. . . . . .
. Percent Below July 2008 Price Level . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .0%. . .*. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 1%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 2%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 3%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 4%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 6%. . . . . . . . . . . *. . . . . . . . . . . .
– 7%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 8%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 9%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-10%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-11%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-12%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . * . . .
—————————————————————-
. . . . . .July. . . . December. . . . May. . .
. . . . . 2008. . . . . 2008 . . . . . 2009. . .

(source: Teranet’s index)

In 2009, Vancouver’s (crashing?) housing market was rescued by emergency rates.

At that time, similar major price corrections were underway in Victoria, Edmonton and Calgary. These falling markets were also rescued by emergency rates.

Housing markets in Vancouver, Victoria, Calgary and Edmonton crashed in the 1980s.

#30 crossbordershopper on 12.21.15 at 6:06 pm

yes, calgary is a big city by cdn standards 1million but out of 36.5 its like less than 3%, add in all of alberta at 5 and your like 12% of the total,
it still doesnt matter. down 10 down 50%. Canada is a total regional marketplace.
cant wait for the 62.5 cent dollar, and look at 10 year bonds, cdn rates will be cut again next year, yes us rates will go up and canadian ones flat to lower as our economy tanks. and with it jobs, more refuges, 50,000 in total now and a lonely looser loonie, and i have already packed a bag ready for working in the usa.
anyone and everyone will join me, with the new taxes and proposed cpp increase. the best and brightest will leave.

#31 Timmy on 12.21.15 at 6:06 pm

Even if or when the Calgary market drops by 30 percent, why would one want to own a stagnating or declining asset? Given the glut of oil, new technologies, looming regulation, movements to have pension funds and other large shareholders divest their oil stocks, alternative engergy sources, and the fact that they can get it out of the ground cheaper in many parts of the world, why would anyone bet on Alberta even in the medium term? Garth, care to make a prediction of when that economy will turn around? It will be sooner than the housing crash right?

#32 james on 12.21.15 at 6:12 pm

“My intention is to buy a place that is no more than 3.5 times my gross salary, even though we have been pre-approved for 6 times my gross salary”

People are crazy. Not this fellow, who seems rational, but the people who sign up for a places 6-15x gross salary. Let’s not forget that your friendly neighbourhood mortgage broker was caught allowing (inducing) clients to lie about their income. Some people are very likely leveraged 15x.

I bought my place at 1.5x salary, with a healthy downpayment. The idea was to be able to rent it out easily in case of relocation, assigning it to a professional management company to handle. At local price/rent ratios this is feasible. In Canada, the mortgage holder subsidizes the renter heavily.

Enjoy carrying your 6x income place when your job is cut.

#33 Dee on 12.21.15 at 6:12 pm

Hope you changed Pierre’s name, or the CREB goons are gonna find him. :)

Anyway, couldn’t agree more. The only place I’ve ever owned property was back in Seattle (King County, WA), and there they have this site: http://www.kingcounty.gov/operations/GIS/PropResearch/ParcelViewer.aspx

You can drag around a map of the county, click on any land parcel (or search by street address or parcel number), and get the entire sales/transfer/etc history. You can even view PDF scans of the legal documents themselves.

Imagine having that kind of information at your fingertips. We’d all benefit. Except CREB, anyway.

#34 45north on 12.21.15 at 6:13 pm

Doesn’t this obfuscation ensure we won’t know a market has changed course abruptly until well after it’s happened, trapping many? And, isn’t forcing realtor disclosure the best, cheapest way to serve consumers?

Just imagine if the prices of financial securities were handled this way. My best friends would be in jail.

we cannot sweep this under the rug. Yesterday’s post was about the Milton set – $600,000 house, heavily mortgaged. As a society, our wealth is houses. If houses crash then we crash. The last election was delusion – the delusion being that houses will stay up. Remember in today’s example Tom was an early seller – he put his house up for sale 8 months ago. The majority ( in Calgary ) are just sitting on the sidelines watching their wealth disappear.

The courts have spoken and have upheld the real estate boards. It’s their data and they can release it as and when they see fit.

Sooner or later there will be a political solution. And right now it looks like later. I mean none of the provincial governments is addressing this issue. Nothing could be simpler – just take Garth’s post and read it in the legislature. Same goes for the Federal Government.

What do you think is going to happen when the Milton set find out their $600,000 house is worth $400,000?

http://www.greaterfool.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/401-modified.jpg?8f4c78

We won’t sweep this under the rug.

#35 West Coast on 12.21.15 at 6:14 pm

So are we just stupid, naive and greedy to boot. Bad combo!
Who does control the realtors? Seems to me no one – they work in a self-regulated ‘profession’.
Are we all so dim that we actually believe that this non-transparent, barely regulated industry isn’t going to take advantage at every turn. Follow the money and see which politicians are supporting these charlatans (how about Vancouver’s mayor, BC’s premier and our new prime minister to start with – to say nothing of the last PM).
The only ones I feel sorry for are our new arrivals and the young – still under the illusion that we live in a land where people behave ethically and we can actually trust our political class.
Thanks for your continued attempt to educate us Garth. Happy Christmas – hope you will take a few days off…

#36 Vancouver's Housing Market on 12.21.15 at 6:14 pm

#28 Rexx Rock

According to Victoria’s R/E board, only 1.6% of total sales were to foreign buyers.

You provide nothing to back your claim that Victoria’s economy is booming. It isn’t. There may be more construction this year than in recent (abnormally slow) years, but in no way is Victoria’s economy booming.

There are plenty of holes in the ground left from Victoria’s last “boom” from 2005-10 when several condo high rises were abandoned.

Excess construction and overbuilding due to record low interest rates is no long term solution for an economy that is structurally weak.

#37 jess on 12.21.15 at 6:14 pm

Oracle Agrees to Settle FTC Charges It Deceived Consumers About Java Software Updates
Company Will Be Required to Notify Consumers of Risk, Provide Tools to Uninstall Insecure Older Versions
For Release
December 21, 2015
https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/press-releases/2015/12/oracle-agrees-settle-ftc-charges-it-deceived-consumers-about-java

LifeLock will pay $100 million to settle Federal Trade Commission contempt charges that it violated the terms of a 2010 federal court order that requires the company to secure consumers’ personal information and prohibits the company from deceptive advertising. This is the largest monetary award obtained by the Commission in an order enforcement action.

“This settlement demonstrates the Commission’s commitment to enforcing the orders it has in place against companies, including orders requiring reasonable security for consumer data,” said FTC Chairwoman Edith Ramirez. “The fact that consumers paid Lifelock for help in protecting their sensitive personal information makes the charges in this case particularly troubling.”

https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/press-releases/2015/12/lifelock-pay-100-million-consumers-settle-ftc-charges-it-violated

#38 S.Bby on 12.21.15 at 6:15 pm

#11 Why why why
“… until the listing gets pulled and relisted (which I assume incurs a new listing fee).”
——————————————————
My understanding is an MLS listing can be re-listed as many times as desired until it sells; only at the sale is the MLS fee paid.

#39 Bytor the Snow Dog on 12.21.15 at 6:16 pm

There is no HAM….but there is CHEESE.

Canadians Having Extensively Enormous Senses (of) Entitlement.

#40 the Jaguar on 12.21.15 at 6:16 pm

#6 Turner Nation
It’s Marlborough, not Marlboro, and every city has its ‘hood’. Nenshi is from the hood and he is mayor and soon to be a more national player.
My guess, based on the price point they started at and sold, is that it’s a little south and west of the airport. Winston Heights or Mountview. Attached infill territory. If people want to gain insight into the ebb and flow of the real estate market they have to put in the work. Like anything else it requires study and effort. Stake out your area of interest and follow the MLS listings. See which houses appear, disappear, then reappear. There are statistics, numbers and then there is what the naked eye can observe. Fasten your seat belts, 2016 is going to be a bumpy ride. Strangely, many still can’t see the storm clouds gathering. Must be too busy consulting the oracle of their smartphone, desperately hoping someone, somewhere has sent a text. Personally it’s been a year of revelation. To quote from the Little Prince…” What is essential is invisible to the eye…..’

#41 Mike in Edm on 12.21.15 at 6:17 pm

Dear Garth, what can we (‘we’ being the non-sheeple public) do to try and get this blatant slimy practice by RE boards across the nation changed? Please lead the charge for us!

#42 45north on 12.21.15 at 6:35 pm

credit where credit is due:

Hailing certification after a 27-month flight test campaign as a “historic moment” for the Canadian aerospace industry, Garneau praised the CS100’s achievement.

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/transport-canada-announces-type-certification-for-cs-420210/

if only they could land at Toronto Island Airport. I blame the CBC types that live there. And the Liberal Government.

#43 will on 12.21.15 at 6:37 pm

Very informative post today. Thank you Garth.

#44 BC Guy on 12.21.15 at 6:38 pm

In my neck of the woods in BC, real estate is still very expensive, not a lot to choose from, not a lot of new inventory coming on the market.

I’ve been sitting, waiting patiently for 8 months now for prices to drop and better inventory to come on market, but if anything, it’s getting worse. In my daily travels, I’ve spoken to several people, in their 40’s and 50’s renting, and waiting to buy, but there’s nothing decent to buy.

Meanwhile, so many houses in various neighbourhoods are empty, driveway cluttered with branches, no smoke from chimney, no cars in driveway, no one home for months at a time, sometimes 3 or 4 houses in a row.

Thousands of acres of Crown land, raw land, sitting idle, not for sale.

The Chinese are moving in and buying up land, houses, apartment blocks and businesses. Fact.

Meanwhile, 90% of the available jobs are minimum wage. Whenever a middle-income job appears, it’s filled quickly by the long lineup of job seekers.

BC stands for “Bring Cash”. You either got half a mil in cash and a guaranteed job or forget it. Move elsewhere.
Welcome to the “most beautiful place on Earth”.

#45 Bram on 12.21.15 at 6:42 pm

#10 Victoria Real Estate Update on 12.21.15 at 5:15 pm
Should we trust either of these claims or dismiss both?

The Teranet number is by far the most trustworthy source for price movement.

This is simply because house prices are based on actual re-sale values of the same property, being sold multiple times over a certain period.

If the exact same address is bought in in 2005, and 2015, you get an exact price-movement for that property. The only source of noise on that signal is the ‘upgrades’ than have been done on that house, which are typically unknown.

Because re-sales don’t occur as frequent as sales, the indicator does lag a little, but gives solid information. It takes time for a housing crash to get reflected in Teranet numbers.

http://www.housepriceindex.ca

#46 mike leblond on 12.21.15 at 6:48 pm

Great post Garth. In Ottawa-Gatineau, there are hundreds of houses that have been on the market for one, two,three even four years. And I have seen lots of price cuts of 30%. This is never reported by the CREB crooks. I know many homeowners who are not able to sell their houses……. the market is heading towards a cliff….

#47 mike from Mtl on 12.21.15 at 6:50 pm

#25 Canadian Zillow

It is criminal, that the equivalent of Zillow can’t exist in Canada.

A class action suit against the government for failing and refusing to legislate transparency in real estate data could be the only solution to change it.
=====================================

Yes this is really a big part of the problem. Trusting all that vested interest with that amount of money based on well trust the facts are straight… sounds right out of the 19th century.

O&G are basically done so now the only thing left to grab $$ is FIRE.

For fun I check local listings and I have seen the same ones change realtors usually without any reduction or addition of details for as much as TWO YEARS! I know Mtl is basically dead but man what’s the point?

For me within the last five years rents haven’t changed at all (very good indicator of true market value) so I’d wager sticking to their prices because carrying costs are manageable.

The heck I am still doing here?

#48 Trondald J Dump (the J is for jackass) on 12.21.15 at 6:50 pm

“#3 Sheane Wallace on 12.21.15 at 5:03 pm
Just when you think it can’t get worse in the mental institution that we live in:

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/lifestyle/family/liberals-plan-to-make-spanking-illegal/ar-BBnN83L?li=AAggNb9

Yeah but I’m starting one of those electronic petitions to create a law to deal with the brats properly. For instance say you are in a store and a kid is screaming and demanding candy while grabbing everything it can in it’s filthy little hands. Under my proposal you would be allowed to deck the parent because they really are the problem.

#49 Love my Kia on 12.21.15 at 6:54 pm

A most fascinating read Garth, and THANK YOU for exposing realtor methodology. You shine a bright light into a most corrupt industry.

What I wouldn’t give if someone here can give Garth access to the realtor only access to MLS listings…

We are already in a massive correction and its all being hidden. What kind of world do we live in?

Thanks again Mr Turner.

#50 Smoking Man on 12.21.15 at 6:59 pm

This is the most dangerous man in Canada. Brave bastard all the same.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrdSCKDR5-Y

“If only we had social media when Brenton Woods was signed?” WHAT?

He goes on to say, we don’t need the oil sands, we have other things to offer.

LIKE WHAT? he’s chased away MFG in Ontario with the green energy world he created.

His is a powerful bastard, Justin and Wynne’s left hand man. Hell bent on sending us to the stone age. With the blessing of all his urban fans. Till one day when they can’t afford food.

They are going to destroy the OIL sands, and bring a world of pain on Alberta. The dollar is going to go to ZERO now that these elite spoiled children of privilege have the controls.

My long term prediction, when he’s done with his vision he’s going need to find a country to exile too.

Every Albertan will be hunting him down….

#51 WAAAAT? on 12.21.15 at 7:05 pm

. . . . . VREU pretty dot pictures. . . . . .
. Percent Below illegibility Level . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .0%. . .:) %%^&*. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 1%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .:(
– 2%. . . . . . ~~~~~~~~~~ . . . . . . . . . . .”((^^&%
– 3%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 4%. . . . . . . . . kkkkk. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 6%. . . . . . . . . . . *. . . . . . . . . . . .
– 7%. . . . . . . . . .644232899 . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 8%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 9%. . . . . . . S.O.S….S.O.S….. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-10%. . . . . . . . . O O. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-11%. . . . . . . .C J . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-12%. . . . . . . ——- . . . . . . . . . . . * . . .
—————————————————————-
. . . . . .THIS. . . . MAKES. . . . NO. . SENSE.
. . . . . 2008. . . . . 2008 . . . . . 2009. . .ARE NUMBERS I LIKE

#52 MSM-Free Zone on 12.21.15 at 7:05 pm

“….Like, if realtors control and report all of the statistics, who’s controlling them? …..”
____________________________

Yes, but keep in mind, they have CAPITALZIZED® the name of their members. That’s got to be worth some kind of cool credibility, right?

Just think…..

DICK CHANEY®
JEFFREY SKILLING®
JIM BAKER®
FORD PINTO®
CHARLES MANSON®
STEPHEN HARPER®

#53 Timing is Everything on 12.21.15 at 7:10 pm

#45 Bram

+1
——————————————————
#10 Victoria Weather Update. Just 4 U…

In November the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price Index™ was up 0.2% from the previous month, an 11th consecutive monthly increase. This rise, slightly above the average for a month of November (0.1%), was due entirely to strong gains in Vancouver (1.3%) and Victoria (1.8%).

In November the composite index was up 6.1% from a year earlier, the largest 12-month rise since March 2012. However, this strength came from just four markets, whose 12-month gains were well above the countrywide average – Vancouver (11.3%), Toronto (9.7%), Hamilton (9.6%) and Victoria (8.7%).

http://www.housepriceindex.ca/default.aspx

It is what it is.

Have some ‘faith’…

http://tinyurl.com/zq54djg

#54 chris on 12.21.15 at 7:10 pm

Can someone help me with some info on this situation. My friend fully owns (paid off long ago, no mortgage) a house in Toronto worth atleast $2.5m
Unfortunately, she’s been unemployed for over a year and is broke. She states that once she can show an employment letter to her bank they will increase her line of credit by $210k. That means, she already has a line of credit against the house and I would assume it’s maxed out if they are going to “increase” it.
Given that the house is fully paid for and assume it’s appraised at $2.5m how much (a range not an exact amount), would the original LOC have been for ? I’m curious how deep she is in debt given that she is definately flat broke and can’t borrow any more against the existing LOC.
I guess what I’m asking is, what is the maximum amount (%) you can you borrow against your principal residence for a LOC ?
Obviously, she’s reached this maximum and it goes to show that you can’t judge a book by it’s cover (or the car they drive or house they live in) b/c reality can be quite different from perceptions.

#55 Island Girl on 12.21.15 at 7:14 pm

Our house sat on the market for 604 days and took a price reduction of 21% before we bought it. And that was 76% of the price that the previous owners paid for it. When we first looked at it our realtor told us she thought it was a good deal because they had dropped the price from 309,900 to 299,900 and had sent us the history of the listings. When we pointed out the length of time the house had been on the market and how much it had dropped she almost seemed surprised. Sometimes I wonder if they just try to stay oblivious to the actual values so they won’t see the downward spiral.

#56 TurnerNation on 12.21.15 at 7:14 pm

There once was a girl from Marlboro
Whose glare caused brow to furrow.
When asked what’s amiss (living in this bliss)
Replied I’d rather live in a borough.

Next up…Forest Lawn?

#57 Freedom First on 12.21.15 at 7:16 pm

Yes. I think white collar criminals are evil. Very evil. Most unfortunate that few go to prison. And even when they do, very very few do any serious time.

Be hyper-aware of anyone in a suit. Smart does not mean ethical. Even our Host was axed for being ethical.

I am not a smoking man but I see the truth in everything. It’s why I must keep a low profile in my personal life. People hate the truth.

Garth, how many threats of violence, some sexual, against you, to date? It’s been awhile since we’ve had an update on your volume of personal hate mail.

#58 Ret on 12.21.15 at 7:16 pm

Love Zillow in the US. Zillow also gives municipal tax numbers and very detailed info on local schools.

As in Canada , you can’t judge the local school by the surrounding homes. Many schools have more students bussed in than living within walking distance in the immediate area.

Half a kilometer can put your child into another world.

#59 Julie K. on 12.21.15 at 7:17 pm

Ran into daughter of an old neighbour earlier today.
We were both browsing the toy aisle at one of the local (NV) pet food stores looking for last minute dog gifts.

Our catch-up convo quickly turned to RE.

“Did you hear what the old (insert family name) house sold for last week? Six offers. They accepted $1.6M”.

1.6M for a 3000 sq ft SFH on a 7000sq ft lot in the quiet part of North Van (ie Deep Cove) is shocking enough in itself IMO but here is the rub. This same house was last sold not quite 5 years ago for 921K (in a bidding war back then too).

In simplest terms, they nabbed an increase of $679K or ~ 70% return — in 60 months.

The selling family wants to finish out the school year (before moving to the Okanagan) so contracted the deal to close in March — with a June possession.

The buying family is so thrilled to have outbid the five other offers, they are even allowing the sellers to stay in the place the 3 months after closing, and until end of the school year, for F R E E.

Did not hear anything about who the buyers are, other than a young family with a couple kids. But, obviously, these peeps do not know anyone named G. Turner.

Yeah, anecdotally, the market is not (yet) any where near cooling here in beautiful, super natural, Vancouver — and neither is the weather.

#60 jess on 12.21.15 at 7:19 pm

Australian regulator cracks down on land bank schemes

By Richard Hubbard

Added 21st December 2015

Australia’s main financial regulator is seeking to wind up two land banking schemes as part a crackdown on the real estate investment vehicles.

..“ASIC notes that many of the promotors of land banking schemes offer access to lawyers and financial advice, but is concerned that they are not independent enough to provide the best advice.”

#61 bubu on 12.21.15 at 7:25 pm

Hard to accept the reality? The prices didn’t go and will no go down too much unless the interest rate goes up significantly or access to credit is limited. .. today you can get credit very easy even if you do not have a job…

#62 TRT on 12.21.15 at 7:32 pm

Terabet only looks at sale prices of repeat home sales.

YVR rocketing ever higher.

#63 Mark on 12.21.15 at 7:33 pm

” in producing a commodity that can be produced at half price or less by other market players.”

Oilsands oil is very competitive with the shale drillers. Especially existing production.

“A class action suit against the government for failing and refusing to legislate transparency in real estate data could be the only solution to change it.”

You are aware that you really can’t sue the Crown for failing to legislate things, right?

“What HAM? The local board has stats to prove fewer than 2% of sales go to offshore buyers? You made that up. ”

Sad, ain’t it?

“These 2 markets may take a breather,, but drop,, unlikely… The phrase for us homies has become “Go Big or Stay Home”.”

Various episodes in the 70s, 80s, 90s, and even 00’s would disagree with you.

“Only-inflation-to-reduce-debt-burden ”

Or deflation and the property of debtors reverts to that of creditors through default. Inflation would just bail out the over-indebted people out there. Besides, with 40% of Canada’s mortgage loan base being adjustable rate (short-term), and the rest being adjustable rate on slightly longer-terms (ie: up to 5 years), inflation would drive much higher interest rates which would drive defaults. Ergo, no saving Canada’s over-leveraged through inflation — deflation and defaults are where its at.

Q: For long term tax optimization, is this best taken from my non-registered investments, or tfsa?

Do you have to ‘realize’ a long-term capital gain in the non-registered investments? How big is $8k relative to your account sizes? Do you have any other leverage? Do you have a dividend stream in the non-registered account you could rob temporarily to pay for such? My view would be just to borrow the $8k, but if you have cash sitting in a non-reg account or even short-term bond funds, you might consider selling them, at least temporarily, to fund such. There’s no good ‘rule of thumb’, each question of your nature would have to be evaluated on its merits (and obviously it would be inappropriate to give specific advice on an Internet forum).

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.21.15 at 7:33 pm

@#44 BC Guy
“I’ve been sitting, waiting patiently for 8 months now for prices to drop….”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Wow! A whole 8 months.

But there’s always that Crown land staring you in the face on your daily commute…….it must drive you crazy knowing that American billionaires have a 125,000 acre ranch that no one can visit unless they pay money……
http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwi47ZLKm-7JAhVMXR4KHV2xCPsQFggnMAI&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.forbes.com%2Fsites%2Fmorganbrennan%2F2012%2F11%2F29%2Fbillionaire-stanley-kroenke-buys-132-5-million-broken-o-ranch%2F&usg=AFQjCNEsrUaohigG1gtanhtNLl92zE0Atw&sig2=-vPri4loLFG5H1c_36Dgwg&bvm=bv.110151844,d.dmo

Its SO unfair isnt it? billionaires getting what they want and renters standing outside the fence drooling at all those acres……………
Keep renting that basement suite, my socialist expropriator. Eventually the Communist party may win a federal election and you can have all the crown land you want and the property taxes to go with it………….

#65 domain on 12.21.15 at 7:33 pm

So Garth, lets say that somehow this issue were to catch widespread attention of the population (unlikely to unseat garbage tv) and the public applied pressure, and/or some form of class-action lawsuit was filed – how would this data be administered to be freely open and accurate? It seems that everyone (CMHC, municipal/provincial/federal govt, RE lawyers, realtors, insurers, bankers, sellers, investors, etc.) except buyers, have a vested interest in keeping this fraud going. Even if another (as if we need more) gov agency was born to achieve transparency in this information, could we count on it being reliable itself? How does such a mechanism work in the US?

Anyway, as with most lies that are up against a growing problem, the truth will eventually become so glaringly obvious that it can’t be hidden anymore.

#66 Arfmooocat on 12.21.15 at 7:38 pm

Some think Edmonton is an island of prosperity in Alberta and that our real estate will be worth more than Calgary.

Seeing as were supposedly all government and no oil related industry.

Thoughts? lol

http://edmontonrealestateblog.com/weekly-update

#67 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 12.21.15 at 7:39 pm

It seems to me that a house is not exactly a perishable. It does not have a best before date. Therefore, the information about days on the market should not be reported at all by anyone. Same with % of asking price it sold for.

The information that matters in a lot of markets including real estate is the volume of sales and the selling prices.

Do the buyers need to report how many houses they have visited, what offers they have made if any, and what their offer prices were? After all, would not this enable sellers to have transparent information about the [email protected][email protected]?!$!%!%

#68 Frank on 12.21.15 at 7:46 pm

In 2009, Vancouver’s (crashing?) housing market was rescued by emergency rates.

At that time, similar major price corrections were underway in Victoria, Edmonton and Calgary. These falling markets were also rescued by emergency rates.

Housing markets in Vancouver, Victoria, Calgary and Edmonton crashed in the 1980s.

That was due to global uncertainty and massive job losses. It soon corrected when confidence was restored as people realized Vancouver wasn’t going to be that poorly off.

The commodity crash is bad for Alberta, that’s why listings are high and sales are low but people in Vancouver aren’t worried. Why should they be?

You’re pointing at something that happened 10 and 30 years ago and saying “prices have declined before, they can again”. Sure, no one thinks that it’s a universal constant that Vancouver real estate goes up but why should a decline happen tomorrow versus 10 years from now? You need a better argument than “it’s happened before” and your shitty charts aren’t going to cut it.

#69 Ret on 12.21.15 at 7:47 pm

Statistics. Am I missing something here?

John Tory and Toronto city Councillors vote themselves a 2% wage increase equivalent to the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/12/20/tory-councillors-getting-2-raise-in-new-year

However, the CPI number for Canada to the end of Nov./15 was 1.4%!

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/cpis01a-eng.htm

If you click on the link to Ontario only CPI, the number is a slightly lower 1.3%.

I can’t see CPI indexed CPP, OAS, and GAINS going up 2% Jan. 1, 2016.

Have I got this wrong or is it a case of, “Lies, damed lies and John Tory in T.O.”

#70 Mark on 12.21.15 at 7:47 pm

“Can someone help me with some info on this situation. My friend fully owns (paid off long ago, no mortgage) ”

“she already has a line of credit against the house and I would assume it’s maxed out if they are going to “increase” it.”

I think the contradiction between your two statements needs to be addressed. But I’ll leave that aside for a moment.

Basically if your friend has been unemployed for a year, in Toronto, and is attempting to ‘survive’ by increasing the credit against a house, then she needs to address either the income situation, or the problem of ‘holding’ a $2.5M house which has probably already lost a chunk of value over the past couple of years. And is bleeding her dryer and dryer each month for its upkeep.

If she liquidates it right now, she’ll still get a decent price, albeit slightly less than the peak. She’ll probably walk away with some equity that she can take and live somewhere else cheaper — whether it involve moving out of Toronto altogether, or even using the proceeds to buy a balanced portfolio and moving into a far lower cost rental condo in Toronto if she’s committed to the area (the returns on the portfolio will substantially help out with the costs).

If she acts quickly enough, she’ll escape relatively unscathed. No negative equity. No personal bankruptcy (the kiss of death to working in the financial sector, BTW). No hit to her reputation. If she closes her eyes, takes the larger LOC, a couple years from now she’ll likely walk away with no equity and might even be in negative equity.

Her decision obviously, but the sooner she embraces change, the better I think she’ll be able to manage her outcome. Its unfortunate, but the opportunity cost of even 1 year of owning a $2.5M house @ 7% is nearly $200k/year, and that’s assuming the current swoon in GTA housing prices doesn’t deepen dramatically.

#71 straight six on 12.21.15 at 7:48 pm

you want the truth? hahahaha!
25 yrs ago a kitchen client said to me as she was busy swapping price tags for the benefit of her significant other footing the bill.. Get with it she said.. Everyone lies!
When the Greek bailout was big news a Greek friend summarized it by saying .. All Greeks are liars!
Fast forward, shopping for a new car on-line.
A Vancouver dealership’s web site showed a better equip model than what they were actually selling.. even came with a stock # and pic.. wrong!
Had I a magnifying glass I would have seen their disclaimer.
New rule: Believe nothing! and no one! well, except for Garth.. and you’ll do just fine.

#72 Love my Kia on 12.21.15 at 7:51 pm

I for one am willing to step up to complain to my MP (liberal) on the practices of the real estate boards.

Any advice?

I know you’ve done this before but it warrants another run on how to choose a good agent while trying to overhaul the current system.

#73 Bilge rat on 12.21.15 at 7:57 pm

YVR is doomed regardless of the fundamentals.
Hey this is Canada… everything we buy is a rip off anyway so why shouldn’t beater houses cost $1.5 mil. Just being consistent.

#74 Marco Polo on 12.21.15 at 7:59 pm

Garth is right on this one. Shady realtor tactics. Everyone thinking about buying a home in Alberta should certainly find the home they like and rent it, likely with a one year lease. Immediately, pickup one of those glossy property magazines in the grocery store, do it the second month too. Several months later, pickup a recent copy. The realtors can’t edit your old one, like they can with MLS listings and data. Here in Grande Prairie, year over year, asking prices are $30-100K below what they were.

#75 lala on 12.21.15 at 8:00 pm

It’s to big to fail, that’s why shityy data, look at OMVIC regulations about selling/buying used car, sickening ……. Over regulated, millions of dollars fines and jail time for dealers and curbsiders. I’m talking about going in jail for not disclosure of car being in accidents and stuff like this, but when you sell a shitty house with mold thats fine because stupid Canadians think the price it will go up. I’m going back to greece for 3 months. You guys deal with the winter and your pathethic houses.

#76 Love my Kia on 12.21.15 at 8:00 pm

#57 Freedom First
I am not a smoking man but I see the truth in everything. It’s why I must keep a low profile in my personal life.
*************************
Ba ha ha!

We know everything about you because you keep reminding us at every opportunity (left home at 17, lived in 4 provinces, love women but view yourself as their wallet -some psychosis there, and how wonderful you are in general).

I’m sure I speak for more than a few of us that we would be most appreciative that you start making your personal life low profile, as much as you havent.

#77 Prairieboy43 on 12.21.15 at 8:06 pm

Cracks are showing in the Edmonton region. picked up a few groceries. Young women on the corner (not a prostitute) at -14c, with sign around neck “Hungry and Broke”. She is newfy Millenial, facing economic reality.
This weekend a couple of thugs blew away a couple of young men working at Macs during nightshift. God Bless, these men and families. It will be ugly here in the west. NDP will have there hands full. Good Luck!

#78 Mark on 12.21.15 at 8:06 pm

“Statistics. Am I missing something here?”

If you’re outraged about that, you should also be outraged over the fact that most federal legislation regarding indexxing does not incorporate adjustments for CPI deflation.

So if CPI goes negative in Canada (a very distinct possibility, especially as the CAD$ starts to recover), government benefit and CPP recipients will receive a real increase to their benefits over and above what was really contemplated. TFSA contribution room will not be rolled back. This will increase the rate of depletion of such programs, in an environment where there is likely to be financial stress on payors or long-term plan solvency (or government finances in the case of the TFSA limits). The various lobby groups lobbied for inflation indexxing, but unfortunately deflation was not appropriately contemplated by government when coming to legislation.

#79 Suede on 12.21.15 at 8:15 pm

The market top in Vancouver is close.

I will be flipping a house in the spring , hopefully to some HAM

#80 White Crock BC on 12.21.15 at 8:16 pm

I get a kick out of the number of posters that think that they can just “up and move to the US” whenever they feel like it.

Yeah, just tell the guy at the US Customs that you’re moving to the US to work and he’ll just wave you in.

Good luck with that.

#81 Other Brother Darryl on 12.21.15 at 8:16 pm

#54 chris on 12.21.15 at 7:10 pm

It’s not enough that your “friend” is struggling, but you want to guesstimate by how much? You are so jealous!

Even without a job, she’s still worth way more than you. Good for her!

#82 CJBob on 12.21.15 at 8:17 pm

#5 Karl hungus on 12.21.15: Final sale price is the only number that really matters
____________________________
Exactly, I’ve bought and sold 5 houses over 27 years and asking price is irrelevant. I research a specific community, view lots of houses in the area to see the going current prices and buy based on that information.

#83 Sebee on 12.21.15 at 8:19 pm

This whole thing makes me think of a certain fruit company, and how they create hype about product shortages and availability to get the sheeple into a frenzy to rush, line up for 10 days just to get the latest “i”dentity crisis product.

Oh sure, there is a shortage of those products, but it’s artificial and by design, part of the marketing. Just like there is shortage of land in Canada, the 2nd biggest country on the planet.

#84 LJ on 12.21.15 at 8:21 pm

In my Calgary neighbourhood, I count about a 14% rental vacancy rate, currently.

#85 Poco Loco on 12.21.15 at 8:27 pm

http://www.vancouverpricedrop.wordpress.com used to post Greater Vancouver properties that repeatedly relisted for the period 2012 – 2014.

#86 Leo Trollstoy on 12.21.15 at 8:31 pm

#8 pinstripe on 12.21.15 at 5:14 pm

Just one of the first brush strokes that will paint the NDP as stewards during the collapse of the Alberta economy.

#87 Nabbed | Realties.ca on 12.21.15 at 8:34 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/12/21/nabbed/ […]

#88 Joe the Realtor on 12.21.15 at 8:36 pm

Let’s all hate the Real Estate agents! It would not be that sellers are greedy and always and I mean always think there house is special and worth more than everybody else’s? So you take the listing high and hope reality sets in and the sellers can see reason! If not then he/she blames the agent! Yes, we are paid a lot of money if we are good to be the blame for sellers and buyers greed!

#89 Kreditanstalt on 12.21.15 at 8:36 pm

I’m just curious what sort of character would pay $729,000 for a house…in Calgary, of all places – when you could get 3 for the same price here on Vancouver Island.

The jobs are there, you say? That had better be one hell of a high-paying job.

#90 Sheane Wallace on 12.21.15 at 8:39 pm

#78 Mark

CAD could recover from 0.60 to 0.62 before diving again.

Repeat with me: Poloz, increase the rates, Poloz, increase the rates you m…….er

#91 Freeman on 12.21.15 at 8:49 pm

Peter Schiff keeps harping on about how Gold is going to skyrocket soon. Personally I don’t see it happening. I look at the charts and all I see is DEFLATION for commodities.

Harry Dent on the other hand, he’s actually got some brains, he’s talking about MASSIVE DEFLATION, particularly for Gold and Canadian real estate. In other words, he’s BANG ON !!!

Here’s his video where he explains it:

Federal Reserve Has Already Killed The Economy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3JGgzoKw8g

at 7:10 in the video he begins talking about how he sees 2016 as a year where the DOW will crash 50%, worse than any year since the 1930’s.

I think to myself “Oh God, not another guy talking about how the sky is going to fall ? ”

He has kept on this ‘Stocks are going to crash’ thing so long, it reminds me of the boy who cried WOLF.

But he is right about one thing, gold won’t skyrocket, and real estate is over-priced and will probably be falling pretty soon.

He also says that this rate hike is pretty much the last rake hike before the recession comes in a few weeks. I don’t know how correct that is for the U.S. I know its true for Canada, we are probably going into recession because of commodity prices, but I think cheap oil is going to get the U.S. economy moving up, not down as Dent says.

What do you think Garth, do you think Harry Dent is correct about Gold and Canadian Real Estate crashing in 2016?

Harry Dent was right once, the the Eighties. — Garth

#92 back to stone age on 12.21.15 at 8:49 pm

#50 Smoking Man on 12.21.15 at 6:59 pm

This is the most dangerous man in Canada. Brave bastard all the same.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zrdSCKDR5-Y

“If only we had social media when Brenton Woods was signed?” WHAT?

He goes on to say, we don’t need the oil sands, we have other things to offer.

LIKE WHAT? he’s chased away MFG in Ontario with the green energy world he created.

His is a powerful bastard, Justin and Wynne’s left hand man. Hell bent on sending us to the stone age. With the blessing of all his urban fans. Till one day when they can’t afford food.

They are going to destroy the OIL sands, and bring a world of pain on Alberta. The dollar is going to go to ZERO now that these elite spoiled children of privilege have the controls.

====

This guy may be an ideologically blindsided idiot, but he did not destroy the oil sands and the dollar… He is not THAT powerful.

You know as I do, that the market destroyed the oil sands and the idiotic level of reliance on oil and commodity markets in the economic output, for ages what destroys the dollar.

#93 Leo Trollstoy on 12.21.15 at 8:51 pm

Toronto real estate stories are unfortunately the opposite of today’s blog story.

The story is about realtors tactics. They are the same. — Garth

#94 Smoking Man on 12.21.15 at 8:55 pm

My first tweet to Butts. He was talking about how conservatives are all bet out of shape cause of boy wonders charm.

My tweet.
“Pretty Cheecky, wait till those sporting pickup trucks and gun racks in Alberta find out you’re the reason they lost everything. ”

He’s such an idiot… big difference between dreaming about the perfect world, and the actual world.

There will be consequences for destroying Alberta. And then the rest of Canada.

Guess in his mind, every one walks around in pink shirts and speaks in non threatening soft high octave tones…Live in big cities and buy organic food and practices Yoga…

Don’t think he’s thought this through…

#95 Calgary real estate and Canadian Oil Dream on 12.21.15 at 9:01 pm

#63 Mark on 12.21.15 at 7:33 pm

” in producing a commodity that can be produced at half price or less by other market players.”

Oilsands oil is very competitive with the shale drillers. Especially existing production.

“A class action suit against the government for failing and refusing to legislate transparency in real estate data could be the only solution to change it.”

You are aware that you really can’t sue the Crown for failing to legislate things, right?

====

Oil sands may be competitive with shale oil, but it’s not shale oil that destroys the oil sands. Shale oil gets also destroyed by cheaper producers.

Oil Dream in Canada is based on the same “principles” as the Real Estate Dream in Canada: the price can only go up, cheap money, “this time is different”.

If in the US it was possible to make real estate data transparent, I am sure it can be done in Canada, as well.

#96 Smoking Man on 12.21.15 at 9:02 pm

#78 Mark on 12.21.15 at 8:06 pm
“Statistics. Am I missing something here?”

If you’re outraged about that, you should also be outraged over the fact that most federal legislation regarding indexxing does not incorporate adjustments for CPI deflation.

So if CPI goes negative in Canada (a very distinct possibility, especially as the CAD$ starts to recover), government benefit and CPP recipients will receive a real increase to their benefits over and above what was really contemplated. TFSA contribution room will not be rolled back. This will increase the rate of depletion of such programs, in an environment where there is likely to be financial stress on payors or long-term plan solvency (or government finances in the case of the TFSA limits). The various lobby groups lobbied for inflation indexxing, but unfortunately deflation was not appropriately contemplated by government when coming to legislation
…..

You truly are out of your mind if you think Cad will recover..

Are You fking blind, do you not see what running the show here now.

I’m convinced, you’re not human, some adolescent kid built a robot algo that spews garbage masquerading as intelligent key strokes.

#97 Sean on 12.21.15 at 9:02 pm

Was checking out Ottawa detached prices today. Seem to be roughly flat in the neighborhoods I checked 18 months ago,although it seems like the “quality” of the listings is somewhat higher. Two of the houses were for sale 18 months ago; one of them is down 93K, the other 61K.

#98 TRT on 12.21.15 at 9:05 pm

Interesting Read:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-how-much-money-exists-in-the-entire-world-in-one-chart-2015-12-18

Is there more debt in the world then readily available ‘liquid’ money? Then this is all one big ponzi scheme that requires more debt to function.

#99 Linda on 12.21.15 at 9:09 pm

2016 is likely the year to buy a house at a bargain price. Thus far the economic indicators do not support a rebound in oil/gas any time soon. So places like Alberta where so many have lost their very lucrative O&G positions but did not have $ set aside to weather the downturn with, will be forced to sell their RE. At best they may get what they paid; at worst they may sell at a deep discount & have to choose between taking the financial hit or if they can’t sell/hang on too long end up bankrupt, losing the lot. Grim lesson, but some people don’t learn except the hard way. Some don’t learn even then. Sad.

#100 Mark on 12.21.15 at 9:09 pm

“Repeat with me: Poloz, increase the rates, Poloz, increase the rates you m…….er”

Why would Poloz want to engage in action to push the Canadian economy even further beneath its potential than it already is at this point?

Toronto real estate stories are unfortunately the opposite of today’s blog story.

Hardly. Its not just Mark and Garth that understand that there is a very serious problem with how the media is portraying the state of the RE market in Canada’s major cities.

“Peter Schiff keeps harping on about how Gold is going to skyrocket soon”

Schiff has a good record at getting the ‘end-game’ right, but like myself, is a rather horrible market timer. Having said that, I think Schiff ascribes way too much credence to the inflationary scenario driving gold prices up, and doesn’t really acknowledge deflation as a force in the economy. Worse, I think Schiff basically goes out of his way to twist things (much like that Shadowstats guy) to push his thesis. Which can be dangerous if one is looking for a rigorous argument to a certain outcome occurring.

Having said that, everybody is guilty of it to some extent, but Schiff happens to be so extremely committed to the hyperinflation ‘camp’ that he’s blind to what may very well end up being a deflationary path at least for the interlude.

#101 -=jwk=- on 12.21.15 at 9:17 pm

Why would you count the original reduced price from a delusional home owner? That’s like if I thought COS was really worth $20 per share, but I could only sell it for $10. I wouldn’t say I reduced the price by 50%, I was just being delusional. No different then the home owners in your story.

Final sale price is the only number that really matters

Wrong. Saw lots of posts like this. The % of asking price is very important because it creates the impression that all asking prices are reasonable. As the story demonstrates, this isn’t true. When you see a house listed for 840k in a market where the %ofask is 97%, would you offer them 729k (87% of ask) for it?

No, likely not, which is why none of the original lookers did. They assume someone else would offer 815+.

The perception of a tight market, moving fast with quick sales, is what drives buyers and keeps the market up. If that perception is shattered….

#102 AJ69er on 12.21.15 at 9:19 pm

#20 Ren 0h on 12.21.15 at 5:54 pm
I know this is not quite on today’s topic, but is aligned with all things Greater Fool.

In spring I plan to renovate my bathroom and do some bedroom built-ins. Old house, it’s time.

I have a bunch of liquid money for a portion of the work, but likely need to draw 8k out of the pot.

Q: For long term tax optimization, is this best taken from my non-registered investments, or tfsa?

thanks!

===================

You’re better off using a line of credit and writing the interest off against any gains from the non-registered account.

#103 Bilder on 12.21.15 at 9:27 pm

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.

Mark Twain and some other old guys.

#104 For those about to flop... on 12.21.15 at 9:27 pm

Joking Man# 96
You truly are out of your mind if you think Cad will recover..

Are You fking blind, do you not see what running the show here now.

I’m convinced, you’re not human, some adolescent kid built a robot algo that spews garbage masquerading as intelligent key strokes.
\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\\
If you are going to make predictions once in a while you are going to be wrong and shoot yourself in the foot as they say.
Mark prefers to bypass all that as you’ll bleed out slowly.
He prefers to shoot himself in the neck repeatedly and then walk around asking anyone if they have a bandaid.
NURSE! We’ve got ourselves a bleeder!

#105 squidly77 on 12.21.15 at 9:32 pm

#88 Joe the Realtor on 12.21.15 at 8:36 pm
Let’s all hate the Real Estate agents!

No, that’s not what the subject of the post is about. Trolls like using the hate or racist card.

Todays subject is not about greedy sellers.

Its simply about honesty.

#106 ben on 12.21.15 at 9:38 pm

Prices are set by credit. Demand for credit is set by sentiment.

That’s how you get a situation where two people in low-paid jobs have a house “worth” 800K.

Long way down to hit reality. And the gap will be made up by weakening CAD.

#107 Paul on 12.21.15 at 9:44 pm

We have heard about the obfuscation for a while now. It’s in plain sight. No one seems to deny it, but how can we change it?

What would have to happen to get information made available in a Zillow like system up here?

In my riding the Liberal guy’s big platform was providing information for fact based decision making. Seems others are interested in this too.

Garth, thoughts on the first step?

#108 SpaceX on 12.21.15 at 9:45 pm

SpaceX makes history

http://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-landed-its-rocket-for-the-first-time-2015-12

It’s almost hard to believe that Elon Mask used to study and live in Canada.

His Tesla would have never taken off in this country, so deeply invested in oil, SpaceX would have been just dream, never taking off from blueprints.

#109 Leo Trollstoy on 12.21.15 at 9:51 pm

#96 Smoking Man on 12.21.15 at 9:02 pm

People who have no money don’t care if all their predictions are wrong because, well, they don’t have money. It’s the cycle of poverty. Unfortunately a fact of life.

#110 Bram on 12.21.15 at 9:53 pm

#59 Julie K. on 12.21.15 at 7:17 pm
1.6M for a 3000 sq ft SFH on a 7000sq ft lot in the quiet part of North Van (ie Deep Cove) is shocking enough in itself

Sounds like steal to me, frankly. I visited Deep Cove a few times: I believe a lot of the houses are on a hill side, each with spectacular views of Indian Arm inlet.
And at 7000 ft² that lot is a nice size. Would live there.
Resort-like living for an East Van price? Nice.

#111 Leo Trollstoy on 12.21.15 at 9:54 pm

CAD could recover from 0.60 to 0.62 before diving again.

Damn that’s pretty pessimistic.

And I’ve made a ton of $ being pro-USD…

#112 squidly77 on 12.21.15 at 9:59 pm

Mark
Its not just Mark and Garth that understand

Quite the statement, if anyone on this blog seems to enjoy the confusion caused by real estate boards more than Mark, I’ve yet to read their comment.

Judging by Marks comments, he would prefer that you all chase the market the down.

#113 tri state pat on 12.21.15 at 10:01 pm

Down here (USA) everybody uses Zillow. Keeps them honest!

Sooner or later there will be a Canadian Zillow one way or another. It’s just a question of time…

#114 honesty on 12.21.15 at 10:03 pm

#105 squidly77 on 12.21.15 at 9:32 pm

#88 Joe the Realtor on 12.21.15 at 8:36 pm
Let’s all hate the Real Estate agents!

No, that’s not what the subject of the post is about. Trolls like using the hate or racist card.

Todays subject is not about greedy sellers.

Its simply about honesty.

===

When there is room for greed, the option for honesty that actually works, is a system with legally binding requirements for the players.

Garth could write this article, because in Canada there is no such system.

Creating these systems is often seen as “government red tape” vs “self-regulating industry”.

I have never seen a self-regulating system, that is effective with greed.

#115 Smoking Man on 12.21.15 at 10:03 pm

Lol, you good Garth..

Smokes and cigarettes..

My new year resolution from last year.. get two words painted on this canvis.

A wet opposite slang for dog.

And the translation of a British cigarette.

Better luck next year I’m thinking.

Need to post on a day when you are druck..

Make the x files look lame.

#116 wade on 12.21.15 at 10:05 pm

The point has been made here many times that there are a huge number of people who refuse to believe interest rates will rise…..nonsense. ….I think you touched on that best in the previous blog…..people are focused on monthly payments and not the ramifications of what there payments are gonna look like when they do increase…..in other words they are oblivious…..very few sources are pointing this out (schools media, and on and on)…..every other source caters to the self entitled….”look at what this will cost a month….you can afford this. …” scary stuff

#117 Setting the Record Straight on 12.21.15 at 10:06 pm

@#1 Bananasan on 12.21.15 at 4:59 pm
Hey Garth, may I suggest taxidermy as the most conservative conservation solution for your rightwing dingdongs collection of people posting comments here? I see most are Trump-size nutbars which is a statistical anomaly hard to explain given the relative population sizes of the USA versus the Canada. Must be something in the aurora to generate that fat tail wart on the Bell curve. Or is it that the mean interval *is* the fat tail…

-1———1——–1——–1—–

Let’s see Hiliary wants a no fly zone over Syria. Trump doesn’t. Let’s shoot down another Russian jet.

Hiliary supported the Iraq war. Trump didn’t.

I could go on. But hey those right wing ding dongs.

#118 Page on 12.21.15 at 10:07 pm

Rest assured that 98% of realtors kiss their illustrious careers goodbye, having never given a fleeting thought to the manipulation of DOM stats.

Let’s get serious. Most realtors don’t know how to open a PDF file without getting 3 members of their support staff involved, and people actually think that these same trained “professionals” are conspiring to skew the coveted DOM numbers to fool the consumer?

Sure, realtors want their dog listings to “get a new MLS number”, but it’s not about fudging DOM stats, it’s simply about trying to catch the eye of another realtor who might have overlooked their overpriced steaming POS for the last 9 months.

Of course, there is also the matter of “new” listings getting automatically pushed out to prospects via email, but again, that’s not an attempt to massage stats, it’s a realtors way of saying “this pig is costing me a fortune to advertise, I’ve gotta try something”

I’m not saying it never happens, but I promise you that it’s not the subject of conversation around any water cooler that I’ve had the good fortune to hang around.

Obviously individual realtors do not compile DOM or average/median price stats. Boards do, and should be accountable. — Garth

#119 Smoking Man on 12.21.15 at 10:08 pm

#100 Mark on 12.21.15 at 9:09 pm

Reading your posts, the equivalent of reading a 300 hundred page manual on the best practices of threading a bolt.

Something beautiful about you, just haven’t found it yet.

#120 Mark on 12.21.15 at 10:09 pm

“Is there more debt in the world then readily available ‘liquid’ money? Then this is all one big ponzi scheme that requires more debt to function.”

Of course, that’s a feature of most fiat schemes. Eventually they collapse into deflation, or hyperinflation if the issuer of the currency ramps up the presses to try and fight the inevitable deflation.

The reason deflation happens and the value of the currency increases in deflation is because there is insatiable demand for those scarce “dollars” to repay the debts. Debt can be thought of as a ‘short’ on the currency, and all ‘shorts’ must eventually be closed out.

People who have no money

Describing yourself there Troll?

And the gap will be made up by weakening CAD.

Doubtful. That would just be rewarding debtors (shorts of the CAD$). Which usually doesn’t happen over the long term.

You’re better off using a line of credit and writing the interest off against any gains from the non-registered account.

Only interest on the money used to purchase taxable investments (or refinancing the purchase of taxable investments) can be deducted. So the transaction must be structured in such a way to ensure that the borrowing is used to purchase taxable investments.

#121 gut check on 12.21.15 at 10:19 pm

28 Rexx Rock on 12.21.15 at 6:03 pm
Buying a house outside of Vancouver,Toronto and Victoria is to risky for an investment.At least in these 3 cities the economy is booming and has a tight rental market.Stick to best and leave the rest.The pride of home ownership is very strong in Victoria and ham flooding the area you can’t go wrong buying a house in this beautiful city.

What HAM? The local board has stats to prove fewer than 2% of sales go to offshore buyers? You made that up. — Garth

********************

I read the report and the numbers are oddly reported. They say further in that in certain areas the percentage is above 5%.

Here’s how the financial post summarized it:

“Foreigners owned 3.5 per cent of all condos in Vancouver and 3.3 per cent in Toronto, Canada’s largest city, according to a report Thursday from Canada Mortgage & Housing Corp. which surveyed property managers. That’s up from the 2014 share of 2.3 per cent and 2.4 per cent. In the downtown core, foreign buyers made up 5.4 per cent of Vancouver condo buyers this year and 5.8 per cent in Toronto, both up from last year.”

The reference was to Victoria. The VREB numbers have been published here. — Garth

#122 Crowd sourcing on 12.21.15 at 10:20 pm

#107 Paul on 12.21.15 at 9:44 pm

We have heard about the obfuscation for a while now. It’s in plain sight. No one seems to deny it, but how can we change it?

What would have to happen to get information made available in a Zillow like system up here?

In my riding the Liberal guy’s big platform was providing information for fact based decision making. Seems others are interested in this too.

Garth, thoughts on the first step?

====

The most effective way might be to by-pass the entire system with education.

I could create a web site, with the database back-end, that would enable buyers and sellers to submit the data of the relevant data of the property, prices related to the sale (asking, sold), commission, legal fees, land transfer, property tax, date of listing, date of sale, etc.

Buyers and sellers could voluntarily submit the data, which belongs to their property, the transactions that they pay for, effectively destroying the current claim, that all this data is “propitiatory” and “owned” by the real estate boards.

#123 BS on 12.21.15 at 10:45 pm

Frank on 12.21.15 at 7:46 pm

The commodity crash is bad for Alberta, that’s why listings are high and sales are low but people in Vancouver aren’t worried. Why should they be?

Why should people in Vancouver be worried? Because there are no fundamentals that support the current prices of housing. Simple as that.

The same reason people who owned Pets.com should have been worried in 1999. Either the fundamentals have to change or the prices of Vancouver houses will come down. Right now the direction of the fundamentals are going in the wrong direction to support housing. Price to rent and price to income are insane. Debt levels are extreme. People can only borrow so much. Then you have interest rates and mortgage rates increasing, credit requirements increasing, unemployment increasing and the CAD falling which increases costs for Vancouver residents and leaves less income for housing.

If you want to use the HAM myth that does not look good either. A falling CAD is negative for foreign investors. People are going to US assets. Most foreign investors are in the red over the past 2 years due to currency. China is clamping down on money transfers out. China’s economy is also slowing significantly.

There is nothing left for Vancouver housing. Only a fool would still be in at this point.

#124 Smoking Man on 12.21.15 at 10:45 pm

A movie I’m thinking

Garth Vador vs the Nectoites

#125 carousel on 12.21.15 at 10:45 pm

The realtors are corrupt in giving out information in regards to a home. For example, we were provided information of home, and was given a few thousand dollars of their asking price. Little do they know I printed the same home with a price well below what they quoted. Nevertheless, the realtor was pressing us to buy at a higher price, and said the price never went lower. Now, that was a lie!

Of-course we didn’t buy this home, as I could see through their deception. Who the devil regulates these corrupted realtors.

Are we all stupid that we cannot see what they are doing. It is about time the government stepped up to the plate to control this Canadian RE once and for all.

#126 45north on 12.21.15 at 10:47 pm

Teranet: I don’t understand it. the charts in the communiqués show a deep dramatic drop in 2008 but the charts for individual cities don’t.

from the National Bank: our initial take is they will amount to only a minor change in the Canadian mortgage system and will not have a material impact in the area of most significant potential excess.

http://www.housepriceindex.ca/search_documents/researchEN_422272_.pdf

notice the National Bank is talking about the “mortgage system” and not the “housing market”

again the original post: Doesn’t this obfuscation ensure we won’t know a market has changed course abruptly until well after it’s happened,

this is my suspicion

#127 Former Fool on 12.21.15 at 10:47 pm

What a great blog post Garth. I personally have a friend who’s selling an inner city townhouse. The ask went from 450k down to 369k, and it’s still sitting on the market. If it was reduced to 350k and sold for 345k after a week, then CREB would report it as sold for 98.6% of the ask, with 7 DOM. But it’s been on the market since August. *facepalm*

And while we’re on the topic, what the hell is the benchmark price? Is that some made up fictitious number as well? Of course it is.

#128 Mark on 12.21.15 at 10:57 pm

“Judging by Marks comments, he would prefer that you all chase the market the down.”

I have no problem with Realtors trying to make a living. Heck, I don’t even have a problem with Realtors promoting home ownership. But when they hold themselves out as professionals committed to both the sell, and the buy side of transactions, they owe the public a duty of impartiality and fair dealing. By selectively limiting data, by obfuscating trends that are obvious to most of the lay public, and by soliciting otherwise reputable media outlets to reprint their press releases almost verbatim as ‘journalism’, the public perception of their profession is certainly called deeply into question.

What might be a way to fix this? Perhaps asking your Realtor to take a 5% equity stake in your real estate purchase instead of taking a cash commission. Of course, one would have to remit rent on the 5% of the house they didn’t own, but there could be a clause in such a contract to give either party the right to trigger a buy-out after a decade based on current market values, or reference to a local pricing index.

If the value of the property goes up, voila, the Realtor’s 5% stake goes up in value and they participate. If it goes down, well, it goes down as well. Basically the Realtor is putting their money where their mouth is.

I seriously challenge all greaterfools to try this next time they approach a Realtor looking to buy a property. See if the Realtor will accept payment for their services in home equity as a buyers agent.

Do the same for one’s broker/investment dealer as well. If the broker won’t buy an investment for their personal account, why the heck should they be selling it to you?

#129 gut check on 12.21.15 at 10:58 pm

Re my #121 – my bad.

#130 For those about to flop... on 12.21.15 at 11:01 pm

I have noticed that a few people on here are acting like if Canada had a Zillow type product all of our real estate problems would vanish.
Sure it would help, but in certain markets in the States like New York ,Los Angeles and San Francisco people are still knowingly over paying to secure the deal.
I bet people in Vancouver and T.O would still overpay even with this system in place.
I was working on a house last year that was on the market for 13 million and when I went back to fix some deficiencies the home owner was telling some friends that he got the house for a steal at 11.5 million.Wow!

#131 Other Brother Darryl on 12.21.15 at 11:04 pm

There has been zero “Opportunity Cost” for owning RE in the last 10 years… IT WAS THE OPPORTUNITY! Well, in 604 anyway.

Example: #59 Julie K. on 12.21.15 at 7:17 pm

Of course these have been some lucky times for many, as they learned to do their own renos and flip it for a profit. But I do believe the future state of owning RE WILL have an Opportunity Cost, especially if it levels out.

Take note: Future trips to Home Depot will feel less gainful in a declining market.

#132 45north on 12.21.15 at 11:19 pm

Paul: In my riding the Liberal guy’s big platform was providing information for fact based decision making.

as long as you’re not in power it’s easy to push for fact based decision making. As if you could make it happen with the press of a button.

no this takes political will. A law would have to be passed. There would have to be some kind of oversight. Which would require regulations and a staff.

the real estate boards make a good point: its their data. My suggestion would be because of the importance of real estate to the Canadian economy, it’s vital to have accurate unbiased information. No real estate board can publish any statistics. At all. Sales up or down. Nope. Prices up or down. Nope. Demand for townhouses. Nope. It would all have to be done through a government agency.

#133 wex19 on 12.21.15 at 11:19 pm

MERRY CHRISTMAS-LOVE LOBLAWS

Went to help a buddy today, told me his buddy ordered a new vehicle recently. Full jam. Told me his bud was told very recently that his managerial job was done. He says over a thousand jobs Canada wide cut by Loblaws as of immediately. NEWS FLASH. Nobody cares what time of year it is or what your situation is. Stay liquid my friends.

#134 Why Why Jay on 12.21.15 at 11:33 pm

#21 Nanaimo Bar

I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again: sfh below 500k aren’t representative of the market. The average sfh is mid 500s. You need to raise your top end to at least 600k. That way you’ll see the places listed at 550k that get bid up to 580k. These are still mediocre houses.

Under 500k are disasters or undesirable locations (I.e. western communities). Find a listing in any municipality not including the western communities, esquimalt or vic west under 500k and it’s a turd. Houses near tillicum are selling over 500k. That’s a horrible neighbourhood. If you want something move in ready in a decent neighbourhood you’d better be looking at 600k and up. High 500s might get a decent local for a sfh (albeit old and in need of updates, badly). 600k still won’t get you anything nice. My bottom end on area and decently up to date house are high 600s. These are still middle income neighborhoods. You’ll pay more for a fixer upper in a rich neighborhood.

As I stated in my first post (on this article), properties are selling in Vic, just not the turds. You are purely browsing turds in that price range if you are filtering by sfh. Could get a pretty nice condo at that price (much nicer than the yvr equivalent).

#135 vanpap on 12.21.15 at 11:42 pm

I agree with #13 Chaddywack, Vancouver is still nuts open houses have hordes of people and everything gets sold in a day.

I can’t imagine things changing any time soon. Garth has been wrong about Vancouver and Toronto for a long time unfortuantely

#136 Popeye the Sailor Man on 12.21.15 at 11:44 pm

(From the Movie Chicken little)

Emails from CREB to Garth:

“You have hate mail!”

“you have more hate mail!”

“Your hate mail box is full”

#137 Whistler bubble boy on 12.21.15 at 11:45 pm

The used house salesmen does not want you to know all the history of the listing, knowing how many times it has been re listed can shrivel a semi like a frightened turtle.
No different then a used car salesman except some how our society thinks the realaturd should be trusted, praised and overpaid.

#138 Squish on 12.21.15 at 11:46 pm

#101 -=jwk=- on 12.21.15 at 9:17 pm

“Wrong. Saw lots of posts like this. The % of asking price is very important because it creates the impression that all asking prices are reasonable. As the story demonstrates, this isn’t true. When you see a house listed for 840k in a market where the %ofask is 97%, would you offer them 729k (87% of ask) for it?

No, likely not, which is why none of the original lookers did. They assume someone else would offer 815+.

The perception of a tight market, moving fast with quick sales, is what drives buyers and keeps the market up. If that perception is shattered….”

——-

Precisely.

#139 Terry on 12.21.15 at 11:50 pm

The whole organized Real Estate industry from CREA, OREA, CREB etc… to RECO, all needs an overhaul, elimination and a reset! They no longer function for the benefit of buyers and sellers, they serve their members interests only.

#140 whos data is anyway on 12.22.15 at 12:01 am

#132 45north on 12.21.15 at 11:19 pm

the real estate boards make a good point: its their data.

=====

It’s all BS.

The properties are not owned by he real estate boards.
Real estate agents are hired are paid by the property owners for the duration of the sales transaction.

The real estate boards are licensed for limited time by the owners to use the data, for the sole purpose of conducting the transaction, they are paid for.

Under no circumstances do the owners of the properties license, authorize the property owners to retain, use the data after the sale of the property is closed.

Any claim otherwise by the real estate board is theft of property data, owned by the owners of the property.

#141 Bram on 12.22.15 at 12:05 am

#126 45north on 12.21.15 at 10:47 pm

Teranet: I don’t understand it. the charts in the communiqués show a deep dramatic drop in 2008 but the charts for individual cities don’t.

What on earth are you talking about?
All the cities show a dip in 2008,2009.
Vancouver included.
http://www.housepriceindex.ca/default.aspx

#142 Entrepreneur on 12.22.15 at 12:07 am

Realtors noses are getting longer and longer all the time. All we are asking is honesty but with that lacking we are on our own. The Liberal government could care less or else would step in. I think a class lawsuit is a good idea to keep them (government & realtors) honest.

#51 WAAAT?…is that you NO NAME with the funky algebra?

#143 Vundo on 12.22.15 at 12:09 am

Pierre seems to be reasonable, but why do children necessitate buying a house when one can rent a house? Why do people insist on believing that the only rental properties in existence are illegal basement bachelor suites and crusty 2 bedroom apartments in crappy walk ups?

#94 smoking man: so your response to the guy talking up his own leader and trash talking Harper is to make a veiled threat on his life??? Nice.

#72 love my kia: agreed; contrary to what the anti-government yahoos believe, there is a place for good regulations. Unfortunately I have zero confidence in my Conservative MP to tackle this issue with courage instead of pandering to the RE lobby.

#144 Bob dog on 12.22.15 at 12:42 am

How is this legal? It’s time we replace these worthless parasites with software. I look forward to the day I hire an ex realtor to wash my self driving car. Don’t forget the 2nd coat of wax Biff.

#145 Mark on 12.22.15 at 12:50 am

“Teranet: I don’t understand it. the charts in the communiqués show a deep dramatic drop in 2008 but the charts for individual cities don’t.”

Teranet attempts to correct for the sales mix, by presenting a constant mix of properties against which their index is derived. The Realtors just use transactional averages, which tend to change significantly during periods of RE distress.

Teranet isn’t without its flaws, namely, that its methodology is a sort of low-pass filter which unduly smooths out shorter-term volatility.

I suspect what you saw in those charts is Teranet’s derivation (based on a constant sales mix) versus the Realtor numbers for individual cities which are based on transactional averages and do not take into account the shifted sales mix.

#146 Freedom First on 12.22.15 at 12:53 am

#99 Linda

Your Post is right on the money. It is sad, but true. I’ve seen it before, and I’m seeing it again. Right now.

The way to achieve financial well being over ones lifetime with the highest probability of success is to obey the sound financial principles written on this Blog. These principles have been true and espoused for 2,000 years as the wisdom to adhere to.

Ignore all one asset strategies. This is very simple to adhere to and also very wise.

Of course, all of the people who have a self interest in ignoring these sound financial Principles for their own gain, even if it is at your demise, will argue incessantly against them. Follow the money.

#147 whitehorn on 12.22.15 at 1:00 am

#89 Kreditanstalt on 12.21.15 at 8:36 pm
I’m just curious what sort of character would pay $729,000 for a house…in Calgary, of all places – when you could get 3 for the same price here on Vancouver Island.

The jobs are there, you say? That had better be one hell of a high-paying job
—————————————————————–
The stark reality is that house was probably worth 250-350 in 2000ish. I know several people bought well built detached bungalow houses in good neighborhoods in Edmonton around that time for 150k, which were valued a year ago at 350-400k. Just shows, how much houses have appreciated in the last 10 years in Alberta.

#148 West Coast on 12.22.15 at 1:11 am

It’s not a dog…it’s not a cat…..it’s a donkey (but a very cute one!) Merry Christmas!
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/life-video/video-adorable-donkey-is-very-pleased-about-being-rescued-from-flood/article27690446/

#149 Tedfiftyfour on 12.22.15 at 1:13 am

Garth is saying if a dilusional home seller puts an unrealistic price on a property which later is corrected to market value the difference between the two prices is to be considered a loss of value. Now that is delusional !!
I doubt Wall Mart accounts as losses their sale price merchandise. If they did it would be fraud against the share holders.

#150 Freedom First on 12.22.15 at 1:21 am

#119 Smoking Man

Something beautiful about you, just haven’t found it yet.

*****

Priceless.

#151 jane 24 on 12.22.15 at 2:31 am

The British equivalent to Zillo is http://www.zoopla.co.uk This website allows you to check out any UK home re selling history. Vendors can hide nothing today!!

But our RE stats are issued, admittedly 2 months after the fact, by the Registry Office where all land transfers are registered with their selling price and tax paid. Easy enough to gather up these stats and publish every month. Canada could do the same in a nanno second IF it wanted too. The data is there.

We also have two sets of commercial RE pricing data that come out monthly produced by the largest RE chains, the Halifax and Nationwide. We have no MLS in this country. Quite often there is marked discrepancy between the commercial selling numbers and the govt numbers. Always interesting to note. Govt numbers nearly always lower.

#152 January on 12.22.15 at 2:37 am

Jan 2016 is the spring market here in yvr. .I know of a half dozen home owers who are about to spend there last xmas in their home..they are giddy about cashing out. Me thinks there’s gonna be flood of listings coming to mls real soon. Merry last Christmas in the house honey!

#153 bdy sktn on 12.22.15 at 2:41 am

You need a better argument than “it’s happened before” and your shitty charts aren’t going to cut it
……………..
ZING. Big time! Too funny.

#154 OL on 12.22.15 at 3:19 am

I thought you didn’t believe in #s from the Cartel, Garth?

“#28 Response from Garth:

What HAM? The local board has stats to prove fewer than 2% of sales go to offshore buyers? You made that up. — Garth”

#155 Frank on 12.22.15 at 3:28 am

Why should people in Vancouver be worried? Because there are no fundamentals that support the current prices of housing. Simple as that.

Yeah yeah. This city abandoned fundamentals years ago. People like you have pointed that out and been wrong every time. Tell me what’s different?

Weak dollar? So what, was weak in 2004 and the housing stormed up to 2007. Minor set back in 2008, dollar was low, Vancouver housing still had huge gains.

Higher rates pending? Rates were higher in 2011 and there were still double digit gains. Why is this only not sustainable now? If if wasn’t 4 years ago why won’t it be for 4 more years?

Incomes? Please, we covered this it’s been out of whack for years.

There is nothing left for Vancouver housing. Only a fool would still be in at this point.

Well that fool is up 12% on paper this year. Your balanced portfolio is flat. Plus the bank let them borrow 20x to buy it, I doubt you got such leverage for so cheap. Call them what you want but that fool has a better net worth than you or I.

I want to believe you but I honestly don’t see a change coming. I’m a fan of science and physics. Basic Newtonian kinematics say that a body in motion will continue in motion until acted upon by a force. So what’s the precipitating event here that changes the momentum in Vancouver? It won’t be the snide remark of internet comments. Something has to happen and I don’t see anything.

By the way I heard from someone with access to the same realtor system Garth mentioned that Dec is record breaking and inventory is ~7600, a 10 year low. Prepare for the news stories in the new year.

#156 It will be about jobs and human nature/self-preservation...#68 Frank on 12.22.15 at 3:39 am

Agree, esp. about the shitty charts…LOL.

The only thing that will slow down YVR/416 is high unemployment and what will be a severe recession.

As I posted yesterday, all this down payment and mortgage rate increase discussion are a moot issue as most people can absorb the costs and not all will renew their mortgages on the same day – if any price drop, it will be gradual and over 5 years due to this.

What will stop the bubble cold is high unemployment and a recession, just like it did in 2009 and why all other bubbles in the past burst.

Disagree with you on speed of price reductions – 4 months/15% price drop in YVR in 2009 for me (still doubled my money though in 3 short years).

Regardless of the year, when people have no money coming in, they ditch their homes for the best price they can get (their single largest expense if they have a mortgage). That’s what starts the ball rolling downwards. Take note, most people with mortgages do not have many months of emergency funds set aside and that is normal.

Just take a look at Alberta RE in 2015.

Why the price drops will be quick when the bubble bursts in YVR/416. But who know when – nobody, not even Garth?

The above phenomenon is human nature/self-preservation and that holds true all of the time, charts or not charts.

Besides, charts show history…show me a chart for the future and then let’s talk.

#157 TRT on 12.22.15 at 4:19 am

All 7 owner families of MSM in Canada have instructed their respective board of directors to stop publishing/reporting on the refugee crisis in Europe. Wave after wave entering the EU. Resources at breaking point.

But now censored in Canada.

Why?

#158 Paul on 12.22.15 at 4:30 am

#122: Crowd sourcing: “I could create a website”

I would support any attempts like this, but getting traction might be difficult. What would the motivation of the buyer/seller be?

#130: For those about to flop…

Agreed Zillow won’t solve the problem, but it will make it much harder for the pumpers to pretend everything is rosy when the market does start to turn. Sentiment moves markets and unveiling the ‘index’, reducing the pumping the airwaves full of “everything is going up up up” could have a lot to do with why the irrationality has reached such exuberant proportions.

#132: 45north

Your comments are valid, but it’s not like we don’t have a model to follow. The NAR in the US once claimed ownership but we now have Zillow.

It just seems Canadians are too prone to follow the herd. Which could explain the insanity that is now our real estate market. As Garth says, “it won’t end well”. Problem is in Canada us tax payers will be left holding the bag.

#159 OL on 12.22.15 at 5:30 am

The misuse of DOM happens in Vancouver too.

http://unrealwatchdog.com/

#160 Bottoms_Up on 12.22.15 at 7:39 am

#46 mike leblond on 12.21.15 at 6:48 pm
—————————–
Many sellers are delusional and their prices too high. That’s why the homes sit. They are waiting for the market to catch up to them (could be awhile….). There are still lots of buyers in the Ottawa area (500,000+ jobs). Those with homes priced right are selling. The market is stable (check the CMHC sales and price stats). There is no reason to believe this market won’t continue to match inflation 1-2%/yr price appreciation.

#161 jess on 12.22.15 at 7:52 am

…”Because of loopholes in the law, it is perfectly legal for some advisers to steer customers into complex financial products that will earn the highest rewards, perks and prizes for the advisers – even if they are bad options for their customers. ”

read the report

WASHINGTON, DC – United States Senator Elizabeth Warren today released the findings from an investigation into how perks and kickbacks create conflicts of interest in the annuities industry. The report, which examined responses from 15 leading annuities providers to letters sent by Senator Warren earlier this year, highlights the ways that annuity companies can incentivize agents to put their own interests ahead of their clients.

Overall, thirteen of the fifteen companies investigated admitted to offering kickbacks either directly to agents, indirectly through third party gift payments, or both. Two of the fifteen leading annuities providers indicated that they refuse to provide non-cash direct or indirect kickbacks, suggesting it is straightforward – though uncommon – to build a successful advising business without offering such inducements.

“Companies shouldn’t be allowed to offer expensive vacations, prizes and other kickbacks to agents in exchange for selling costly, second-rate investment products to unsuspecting customers,” Senator Warren said. “This investigation highlights the need for a strong Conflict of Interest Rule to protect the savings of families trying to save for retirement and to ensure a level playing field for companies and advisers who want to do right by their clients.”

http://www.warren.senate.gov/?p=press_release&id=989

#162 Smoking Man on 12.22.15 at 7:59 am

#143 Vundo on 12.22.15 at 12:09 am

#94 smoking man: so your response to the guy talking up his own leader and trash talking Harper is to make a veiled threat on his life??? Nice.
…..

More of a prediction. Not everyone was born into money, stars on the compass debating team.

There are lots of drop outs who missed the emasculation lessons that ended up in fort mac.

They have families to support, with no other means of making any kind of real money when those jobs are gone forever.

You can pretend these people don’t exist, while you can drive your agenda to zero emissions.

I haven’t quite figured out how you get organic veggies to Young and Collage without a motor burning gas.

This arrogant pee-on hiding in the shadows with a road map to the destruction of our way of life, well, I’m never shutting up about him.

Let him sue me, no better way for me to get him exposed to the entire nation, what he really is and what the plan is.

#163 IM in C on 12.22.15 at 8:01 am

Tom and Brenda have a house in NE Calgary just south of the airport. Methinks they are selling not just for financial reasons !

#164 BC Working Guy on 12.22.15 at 8:03 am

@ Vancouver’s Housing Market #29

“Housing markets in Vancouver, Victoria, Calgary and Edmonton crashed in the 1980s.”

In Vancouver at this point in time, it’s different here, seriously. You cannot compare Vancouver in the 1980s with Vancouver in 2015–they are two totally different cities. I don’t think there has been any city in Canada that has changed so much in 30 years. Vancouver in the early 1980s was a small backwater town that most people had never heard of. You know, sort of like Halifax or Winnipeg or Ottawa–just a smallish, peaceful, lacklustre Canadian city–nothing remarkable or special. Those were the good old days. Then we had Expo that exposed us to the world. Then we had the Hong Kong immigration of the 90s in advance of China re-claiming Hong Kong in 1997. Then we had the Olympics. In 2015, we have 3 skytrain lines and one on the way. In the early 1980s, we had 0 skytrain lines. Population growth has been tremendous over that time. We are now close to 2.5 million as a Metro region. I don’t know if Metro Vancouver (or the equivalent back then) was even 1 million in 1980 (too lazy to dig up stats right now). Vancouver is now a major city, a global international city. It is on the world map. People know about us. Rich people who are looking for a safe place to park their capital know about Vancouver. They didn’t know about us in 1980. That is a game changer.

Vancouver does not belong in the same category as Edmonton and Calgary. The rise and fall of real estate in Edmonton and Calgary actually does reflect what is going on in the local economy and the job market in those cities. When the oil industry does well, real estate will go up because people have high paying jobs. None of that applies to Vancouver. We already have terrible jobs in Vancouver. We have all along throughout this entire real estate bubble. The average wages in Vancouver have never ever been close to what they are in Calgary but the prices have always been higher here. It doesn’t matter that people can’t get jobs and those that do have jobs make terrible wages. None of that matters when your city is an international destination for global capital.

Frank is right. Not that I am happy about it. I wish I could say I think real estate would correct in Vancouver. In my heart of hearts, I truly don’t think it will correct. I would bet money that within 5 years, the average price of a SFH in Vancouver proper will hit $2 million–we’re not far from that now. And it will only be a matter of time before the average price is $3 million and $4 million and so on. I don’t expect this to change in my working lifetime. I would bet money on it except I have no money because I am a penniless renter in Vancouver.

#165 JamesA on 12.22.15 at 8:15 am

Well Garth, Crowd sourcing and Paul,

one motivation for the user might be to gather that info as the bi-product of another app. Make an app that is about helping people keep track of the housing they are interested in. Have the map of the world (don’t think like a provincial hick and stick to just our fine Canada). There are open source versions of world maps for raw data. The main point of the app is that it has other information that is of interest to families (commute time, proximity to hospital, school distance, school quality, come up with some proxy metric for the caliber of neighbours to avoid the *ahem* scumbags etc). You click on your dream house and work place and all the routes (transit, road etc) are highlighted with average time to get from A to B (same for hospital and schools etc). Maybe you could come up with a combined metric for a house based on distance to those desirable things (the user can choose which things it finds desirable) that is completely independent of price. Your then come up with some fraction/ratio that contrasts the two (price and the quality number) so you can find the cheap but good (if it exists) places.

So they are using the app and they pick a town/area and then they wait for one to come up within their price range. They are getting the price info from the public listings of other sites and realtors and just “jotting them down” on the new site so they don’t have to remember. The new site just stores everything and then you could see trends for the whole neighbourhood / province / country.

Maybe make money by tailoring the advertising to the family type (if they tick the box for a certain school you know they also want diapers, if they tick the box for hospital they may be interested in a different size of diaper).

Might work, probably already been done, probably illegal in Canada (is it web scraping if the users do it? Not a lawyer). Would be a good thing to bring more info to the market.

#166 fancy_pants on 12.22.15 at 8:19 am

its a crap shoot. if oil is back up to $75 in a year and a half then the greater fools may have been on the selling end of that transaction.

Regardless, the rules are set so that a house is no longer just a place to live, it is a color on the roulette wheel… and the gov’t of the day can and does change and refine the rules while the game is being played. Live within your means and game changers will impact you less.

Merry Christmas to Garth and company.

Now why would oil climb almost 200% with a global glut, climate change legislation popping, carbon taxes and new fracking technologies? — Garth

#167 jess on 12.22.15 at 8:29 am

…”As part of her investigation, Sen. Warren asked the
companies for information on the disclosures given to
customers of the perks, giveaways, and rewards awarded to agents in exchange for annuity sales. This analysis of the information provided reveals that the companies typically provide disclosures through annuity prospectuses, and that these prospectuses describe the rewards only in the broadest and most vague terms. Among the companies that provide perks such as free travel, no company clearly described the nature and type of rewards, or the locations of annual trips provided to agents, in its annuity prospectuses. None of the disclosureclearly reveal that these perks may create incentives for the agent to put his or her own interests ahead of those of the customer. The limited disclosures that are provided to consumers are buried deep within the prospectuses in complex legalese, rather than being provided in an easily available and understandable fashion.”

The third party payments to marketing organizations “may make bonus payments to certain selling firms based on aggregate sales of our variable insurance contracts.”4

#168 fancy_pants on 12.22.15 at 8:47 am

The difference between ask and actual sale price is moot IMO. Someone could ask $300k for a $500k house and get $450 or ask $700k for the same house with the same sale price. Huge difference in under or over asking price but the end result is the same. Since the asking price in itself is whatever you want it to be, the % selling price over or under ask is not very useful info to me.

It’s no wonder they can fudge numbers to whatever they want to reveal, meaningful numbers are not always in the equation. I would love to see the history of every list price and selling price on properties. Not that would be useful info. You could see how often it was listed, for what price, and for what it sold for.

Why is there a monopoly on that information in Canada? What can be done to break that?

#169 Dups on 12.22.15 at 8:54 am

What is wrong with this? A car salesman with an 850K home!!! Wow. This is beyond stupid.

I guess some people do not know their place in society. The type of people that would have torn undergarments, but have an expensive house to show off as rich.

No remorse for people like them…

#170 Smoking Man on 12.22.15 at 8:57 am

The song is about Snow, Snow flakes.

Collages are out of control… PC gone mad. Even with a frailly good imagination I never saw this one coming.

University should be shut down…..

Students Sign Petition to Ban Racist Song ‘White Christmas’

http://www.truthrevolt.org/news/students-sign-petition-ban-racist-song-white-christmas

#171 fancy_pants on 12.22.15 at 9:03 am

Now why would oil climb almost 200% with a global glut, climate change legislation popping, carbon taxes and new fracking technologies? — Garth

unlikely for sure. Perhaps as unlikely as it appeared just 16 months ago that oil prices would be where they are now.

yeah, the climate change and carbon taxes act are simply evidence our debt driven economies need a new fuel source (aka. new $ tax source). Wind and solar farms kill birds and bats, oil kills ground critters. whatever.

but $hit happens on this planet that nobody’s globe can predict. all hell breaks loose in the middle east and voila.

Volatility is the new norm on this planet, both physical and financial. Expect greater swings from bull to bear and back again until the wheels fall off completely.

#172 noel on 12.22.15 at 9:16 am

Not surprising that house prices in Calgary go down when the largest source of employment in the province is in serious turmoil.

This won’t happen in Vancouver or Toronto. Vancouver is a much nicer place to live in all aspects, and has a more diverse economy than anywhere in Alberta.

Toronto has one of the most diverse local economies in the world. And while the climate sucks like Calgary, there is no single event that can have the same impact as oil does on Calgary.

I feel bad for people in Calgary, but declines in their real estate market have no bearing on YVR or YYZ.

Sure. Keep telling yourself that. — Garth

#173 Bottoms_Up on 12.22.15 at 9:30 am

#149 Tedfiftyfour on 12.22.15 at 1:13 am
———————————–
It’s a loss from the original asking price if the sellers or selling agent thought that was market value. Butbit is true they could have also been ‘fishing’.

I think the point is that buyers should have ready access to all the data, including days on market, price reductions and previous selling price, as well as recent sales in the neighbourhood. Further, disclosures on land use in the surrounding area and near-to-medium term building plans for the area.

#174 Leo Trollstoy on 12.22.15 at 9:50 am

Something beautiful about you, just haven’t found it yet.

Lol

He’s a poor man’s idiot savant.

#175 Calgary real estate and Canadian Oil Dream on 12.22.15 at 10:11 am

#172 noel on 12.22.15 at 9:16 am

Not surprising that house prices in Calgary go down when the largest source of employment in the province is in serious turmoil.

This won’t happen in Vancouver or Toronto. Vancouver is a much nicer place to live in all aspects, and has a more diverse economy than anywhere in Alberta.

Toronto has one of the most diverse local economies in the world. And while the climate sucks like Calgary, there is no single event that can have the same impact as oil does on Calgary.

I feel bad for people in Calgary, but declines in their real estate market have no bearing on YVR or YYZ.

Sure. Keep telling yourself that. — Garth

Labor market (loss or increase of jobs) has the most direct impact on real estate.

We can see this best both up and down in Alberta, where the non-diversified reliance on resource economy is the strongest.

Alberta was creating a “one-asset” labor market, the “Canadian Oil Dream”, with the exact same impact what a “one-asset” personal finance does.

In case of Alberta’s Canadian Oil Dream, it was more stupid than real estate decision of individuals can ever be, as not financially uneducated people, but professional investors were sinking money producing a commodity which can be produced in the Middle-East for the fraction of the cost.

On top of that, it was fully supported by governments, including an economist prime minister, failing to diversify, on the same fallacies that describes real estate, e.g. “the price can only go up”.

People who will lose their homes in Alberta will be affected primarily by the loss of their (inflated “well paying”) jobs, created by the Canadian Oil Dream, which is in full collapse mode, instead of the interest rate change.

#176 Tony on 12.22.15 at 10:36 am

Re: #91 Freeman on 12.21.15 at 8:49 pm

Dent has everything right except his call on 700 dollar U.S. an ounce gold. The U.S. dollar will collapse long before that happens.

In this lifetime, or that of your children, the US dollar will never collapse. — Garth

#177 Smoking Man on 12.22.15 at 10:43 am

Remember I told you dogs after the Yellen face saving spike there would be a revision to the data.

Ta-da!!!!!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/third-quarter-gdp-growth-trimmed-to-2-2015-12-22

Never bet against a smoking man

#178 jaybee on 12.22.15 at 10:44 am

#119 Smoking Man on 12.21.15 at 10:08 p

Reading your posts, the equivalent of reading a 300 hundred page manual on the best practices of threading a bolt.

Something beautiful about you, just haven’t found it yet.
=================================
Bahhha so true.

I can’t figure out what I would rather do more.

1) Read a week’s worth of the “Mark the Charlatan’s” comments on this blog.

Or;

2) Undergo a double root canal without anesthetic, all while being forced to watch old Paulie Shore movies.

I’m leaning toward option 2!

#179 CJBob on 12.22.15 at 10:50 am

There is a valid argument that the loss of jobs in AB will increase housing demand in the rest of the country. People are moving out of AB to various places to work. Even if they can’t afford to buy they will rent and this increases the demand for housing in these cities.

Anyone who’s driven across the 401 at the top of Toronto knows how many people are here and how many more are constantly moving here.

Could housing go down in value? Sure it could. Do I buy the argument that a drop in world oil prices will cause this to happen? Nope. Not for a second.

Eroding credit quality in Canada, emanating from oil creep, can certainly have an impact in all markets as lenders move to protect their assets. Yours is a very myopic view. — Garth

#180 Carl on 12.22.15 at 10:52 am

I pay pretty close attention to real estate in my downtown neighbourhood, and it is not increased over the last few years like the reports show. I’d say it’s stagnant. The use of average prices versus median price tends to skew the results a lot higher.

#181 paul on 12.22.15 at 10:58 am

#173 Bottoms_Up on 12.22.15 at 9:30 am

#149 Tedfiftyfour on 12.22.15 at 1:13 am
———————————–
It’s a loss from the original asking price if the sellers or selling agent thought that was market value. Butbit is true they could have also been ‘fishing’.

I think the point is that buyers should have ready access to all the data, including days on market, price reductions and previous selling price, as well as recent sales in the neighbourhood. Further, disclosures on land use in the surrounding area and near-to-medium term building plans for the area
———————————————————-
They do all you need to do is speak with a Realtor

#182 mousy on 12.22.15 at 11:04 am

Re: Real Estate Stats
What about a non profit web site service where buyers and sellers can consent to the release of the selling, DOM and similar stats back to the web site with access to that data to the consenting parties for future use or even the public. Once the consent is received, it is automatically sent to the listing and buying agent compelling them to send the information as per the release. The key is to compel the release of this information to an entity other than the real estate board, effectively taking away their proprietary claim.

#183 paul on 12.22.15 at 11:06 am

#169 Dups on 12.22.15 at 8:54 am

What is wrong with this? A car salesman with an 850K home!!! Wow. This is beyond stupid.

I guess some people do not know their place in society. The type of people that would have torn undergarments, but have an expensive house to show off as rich.

No remorse for people like them…
———————————————————-
‘ torn undergarments” Lol How PC can you get

#184 liquidincalgary on 12.22.15 at 11:12 am

Smoking Man on 12.21.15 at 10:45 pm

A movie I’m thinking

Garth Vador vs the Nectoites

================================================

hopefully this screenplay will take less time than your novel….still waiting….

#185 Canadian on 12.22.15 at 11:21 am

I want to punch people who refer to cities by their airport code in the face repeatedly

Merry Christmas!

XCH! — Garth

#186 Patricia Mills on 12.22.15 at 11:26 am

When the interest rates rise It will increase mortgages as well as credit card costs and vehicle leasing The young people, unable to ‘do without’ will not be able to pay the costs of all their entitlements. So they may not be able to buy anything. ANYTHING!!! So we can welcome a GREAT DEPRESSION as companies collapse because no one can afford to spend any money. Maybe the second hand stores will prosper. People with money are keeping their hands in their pockets and people without are spending on credit. Yikes. Recession and then Depression.

#187 Yeah baby who luvs ya on 12.22.15 at 11:34 am

#176 Tony on 12.22.15 at 10:36 am

Re: #91 Freeman on 12.21.15 at 8:49 pm

Dent has everything right except his call on 700 dollar U.S. an ounce gold. The U.S. dollar will collapse long before that happens.

In this lifetime, or that of your children, the US dollar will never collapse. — Garth
———
Tony baloney is even crazier that the financial wizard known as mark… man your blog reels them in Garth.

#188 Yeah baby who luvs ya on 12.22.15 at 11:39 am

#162 Smoking Man on 12.22.15 at 7:59 am

#143 Vundo on 12.22.15 at 12:09 am

#94 smoking man: so your response to the guy talking up his own leader and trash talking Harper is to make a veiled threat on his life??? Nice.
…..

More of a prediction. Not everyone was born into money, stars on the compass debating team.

There are lots of drop outs who missed the emasculation lessons that ended up in fort mac.

They have families to support, with no other means of making any kind of real money when those jobs are gone forever.

You can pretend these people don’t exist, while you can drive your agenda to zero emissions.

I haven’t quite figured out how you get organic veggies to Young and Collage without a motor burning gas.

This arrogant pee-on hiding in the shadows with a road map to the destruction of our way of life, well, I’m never shutting up about him.

Let him sue me, no better way for me to get him exposed to the entire nation, what he really is and what the plan is.
——–
They are going to smack Alberta hard…….T2 and his Butt pal will give birth to reform 2.0……

#189 tkid on 12.22.15 at 11:43 am

My friend fully owns (paid off long ago, no mortgage) a house in Toronto worth atleast $2.5m

She doesn’t fully own a paid-off house. Whatever the LOC is, that’s the God-only-knows-how-much interest she’s paying against a mortgage on the house. And she probably has credit cards.

She doesn’t need an employment letter, she needs to see one of those bankruptcy folks. Get her an appointment with one of the reputable ones (there are plenty of scams out there so be careful). She’s probably not at the bankruptcy stage, but the bankruptcy folks can review her situation and help her get a plan together.

Your friend is panicking if she’s talking about obtaining an employment letter without gaining the employment. Get her that appointment and hold her hand as she walks into the office.

#190 Doug in YXU on 12.22.15 at 11:58 am

@Canadian, post #185:
Have you ever heard of CNE4 or CNP3? How about YXR?

#191 BCD on 12.22.15 at 12:10 pm

#1 Bananasan on 12.21.15 at 4:59 pm
Hey Garth, may I suggest taxidermy as the most conservative conservation solution for your rightwing dingdongs collection of people posting comments here? I see most are Trump-size nutbars which is a statistical anomaly hard to explain given the relative population sizes of the USA versus the Canada. Must be something in the aurora to generate that fat tail wart on the Bell curve. Or is it that the mean interval *is* the fat tail…
___________________________________________
Well said

It’s getting to the point where I am scrolling past most of the comments and only reading the people I know have something decent to say.

This blog is being ruined by the likes of Smoking Fool and all the rest of the personas he posts under. . .not to mention a couple of other fools. Mark is also annoying–the only lesson to be learned from him is that “a little knowledge is a dangerous thing”.

Can someone attempt to chronicle the different posters on here on a seperate webpage with a simple “legitimate” or “foolhardy” ranking?

And where would you land? — Garth

#192 eddy on 12.22.15 at 12:15 pm

Logical fallacy
‘It’s been on the market for X days, hasn’t sold, therefore it is overpriced’
Tell that to your local Mercedes Benz dealer.

#193 Aggregator on 12.22.15 at 12:18 pm

#126 45north

I don't know why you guys bother reading bank reports, as if the banks are going to call the end of Canada's housing market and tell people to sell when the bulk of their asset holdings are mortgages.

At this stage of the tightening cycle (if it actually persists), the only data of interest should be credit spreads, and by the looks of unconventional Canadian mortgage financing rates, things are about to get ugly. Chart

That chart folks is the single most important contribution to rising home prices. Not land shortages, not foreign money, not bidding wars or people waiting in line —  narrow spreads is what keeps liquidity pumping into the system.

So you better hope central banks promptly reverse course and cut rates and start easing again, because if those spreads keep rising at their current pace, there won't be any bidding on homes by late next year.

#194 James#2 on 12.22.15 at 12:31 pm

#166 fancy_pants on 12.22.15 at 8:19 am

its a crap shoot. if oil is back up to $75 in a year and a half then the greater fools may have been on the selling end of that transaction.

Regardless, the rules are set so that a house is no longer just a place to live, it is a color on the roulette wheel… and the gov’t of the day can and does change and refine the rules while the game is being played. Live within your means and game changers will impact you less.

Merry Christmas to Garth and company.

Now why would oil climb almost 200% with a global glut, climate change legislation popping, carbon taxes and new fracking technologies? — Garth
____________________________________________
One word, three letters.

WAR

#195 45north on 12.22.15 at 12:39 pm

Bram: Teranet: I don’t understand it. the charts in the communiqués show a deep dramatic drop in 2008 but the charts for individual cities don’t.

What on earth are you talking about?

okay what I didn’t see at first was the communiqués show the same charts but instead of the index itself, they show the 12 month change which is much more dramatic.

By the way it’s hard to refer to the url because there’s only one url for the whole site.

#196 jess on 12.22.15 at 1:04 pm

170 Smoking Man on 12.22.15 at 8:57 am
why are you posting anything from david horowitz?

read down to number 5
http://www.alternet.org/story/151738/10_of_america's_most_dangerous_hatemongers

The David Horowitz Freedom Center, formerly known as the Center for the Study of Popular Culture (CSPC), is a project of ex-Marxist turned right-wing activist David Horowitz and Peter Collier. (The name change took effect in early July 2006). [1]
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/David_Horowitz_Freedom_Center

#197 Bottoms_Up on 12.22.15 at 1:12 pm

#170 Smoking Man on 12.22.15 at 8:57 am
——————————————————
The petition was fake, but there is something to be said for people signing on to it without thinking.

Perhaps this speaks to the quality of student attending higher education these days.

#198 For those about to flop... on 12.22.15 at 1:13 pm

#185 Canadian on 12.22.15 at 11:21 am
I want to punch people who refer to cities by their airport code in the face repeatedly

Merry Christmas!

XCH! — Garth

//////////////////////////////////////
You mean Yvr ,yyz and yyj aren’t ETF,s?

#199 NickTheGreek on 12.22.15 at 1:15 pm

GARTH:

My wife’s company (provide infrastructure to the oil industry in Alberta) laid off 4600 employees in the last year alone. That’s about half their work force.

My wife has yet to hear or read anything about it anywhere! There are smoke and mirrors in every sector right now. Just waiting for the major collapse to happen so things can just “normalize” again.

All the tape in the world won’t prevent this bubble from bursting.

#200 Smoking Man on 12.22.15 at 1:22 pm

#191 BCD on 12.22.15 at 12:10 pm
#1 Bananasan on 12.21.15 at 4:59 pm
Hey Garth, may I suggest taxidermy as the most conservative conservation solution for your rightwing dingdongs collection of people posting comments here? I see most are Trump-size nutbars which is a statistical anomaly hard to explain given the relative population sizes of the USA versus the Canada. Must be something in the aurora to generate that fat tail wart on the Bell curve. Or is it that the mean interval *is* the fat tail…
___________________________________________
Well said

It’s getting to the point where I am scrolling past most of the comments and only reading the people I know have something decent to say.

This blog is being ruined by the likes of Smoking Fool and all the rest of the personas he posts under. . .not to mention a couple of other fools. Mark is also annoying–the only lesson to be learned from him is that “a little knowledge is a dangerous thing”.

Can someone attempt to chronicle the different posters on here on a seperate webpage with a simple “legitimate” or “foolhardy” ranking?

And where would you land? — Garth
…………………

BCD do you think anyone gives a shit as to who you read or don’t read.

And they call me a narcissist.

You have to be a liberal with those passive aggressive, key strokes.

#201 calgaryPhantom on 12.22.15 at 1:49 pm

Regarding the oil price recovery. I am very certain that prices will bump much higher in very near term.
My reasoning is not based on technical analysis or financial forecasts. But a mere observation of real world.

In real world, nothing can last longer if it is somehow benefiting the average consumer. The world order will quickly realize that: “Hey, these bunch of 99%ers are getting relief for such a long time now. Let’s bring these suckers back to reality”

Here, simple and true story. Buy leveraged oil futures ETFs.

#202 Ronaldo on 12.22.15 at 1:51 pm

We are going to see this again on condos priced from $500,000 and less in To and Van. Apparently from what I’ve been told, already happening.

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/real-estate-bidding-wars-its-every-man-for-himself

Son tells me that a friend who works in Fort Mac who had been renting a suite for $2300 is now being offered rent at $1400 when his lease comes up. Of a 60 unit apt. only 3 are supposedly occupied. Says that the place is a dead zone. Welcome to the new reality. 2016 is going to be an interesting year indeed.

#203 Mark on 12.22.15 at 1:53 pm

“Now why would oil climb almost 200% with a global glut, climate change legislation popping, carbon taxes and new fracking technologies? “

Because shale wells largely deplete out within a year or two, and as a marginal source of production, they can’t be drilled in any significant numbers for an all-in cost (including capital, which is getting a lot more expensive as of late) of much less than double current prices?

#204 Millennial Realist on 12.22.15 at 2:20 pm

Sorry, neocon blogdogs.

Trump just jumped – the shark.

Not going up in the polls anymore, either.

As much else as there is to dislike, his comments about Clinton (whom I also dislike) getting “schlonged” in 2008 will get way too much play, and be too powerful in turning away women voters. He would certainly not defeat a female candidate now.

Quite the goof, really, as he was looking pretty Teflon. Put together with his “disgusting” references to a woman going to the bathroom, and well…..impossible to ignore now.

If the other Republican stooges work together, this will probably mean he will not even get the nomination.

Time for a reset of all those calculations – almost a certainty that Clinton will be president next.

#205 Millennial Realist on 12.22.15 at 2:23 pm

Remember, the women’s vote put Justin into power.

What Trump has just said guarantees the same for Clinton.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-clinton-video-claim-1.3376004

Two words that start with a “t”….

Trump

&

Toast

#206 waiting on the westcoast on 12.22.15 at 2:29 pm

And where would you land? — Garth

Foolhardy for me

#207 Alex N Calgary on 12.22.15 at 2:32 pm

Things are rotten here in Calgary, same old story, hidden stats to keep the people shopping, but nobody has money. Back in Jan\Feb when we were looking for rentals, 13/14 houses were empty, unheard of for here, we’re about to move again to massivly reduce our rent (I got laid off, surprise surprise) I bet all the houses are empty and people are ready to deal.

My new business is doing so poorly, of course, relying on a bit of disposable household income for snow removal, my new invention, so much work and time and money, built for a Calgary of a year ago, you’d think I”d have known that reading stats and oil projections and GF all the time, I wonder if Ontario will be in our future if my wifes Gov job goes away after Mat leave? had a tool stolen out of my truck the other day, crime is going up, everyone knows that.

I wonder how bad it’ll get here? irony of course is that houses will be affordable but there will be no jobs and misery abound.

I’ve met so many new immigrants this year, likely on the TFW program, sold on promises of jobs and a change a permanent residence, I feel so bad for them, and they all have new houses and cars too, amazing.

#208 Retired Boomer WI on 12.22.15 at 2:40 pm

Donald T. Rump no doubt the BEST thing we have going today in American Politics.

Not an insider, he is free to say, and do as he sees fit. The problem here, we have 2 political parties that are beholden of one ideology – MONEY!! (he won’t win)

What we really need is a revolution a cleansing of the favored fair haired. It is not republican vs democrat it is privilege and money vs the powerless peons (that 99%).

As for CREB they have formulated policies and protocols that favor the product -Real Estate- and their minions have profited handsomely from the skewed data for a long time. There are only 2 ways to change:

1. Honest Realtor reps (similar to honest brokers, honest Lawyers, and other mythical creatures.

2. Federal Legislation. (Don’t look for this anytime soon).

Perhaps a buyer’s strike by would be buyers might have some local effects. Change rarely happens “slowly” it is best served, hot, immediately, and without forewarning.

#209 gut check on 12.22.15 at 2:43 pm

@ #205 Millennial Realist on 12.22.15 at 2:23 pm
Remember, the women’s vote put Justin into power.

****************************
numbers, please.

(BTW, “it’s so obvious” isn’t a number)

#210 Darryl on 12.22.15 at 2:51 pm

Bahhha so true.

I can’t figure out what I would rather do more.

1) Read a week’s worth of the “Mark the Charlatan’s” comments on this blog.

Or;

2) Undergo a double root canal without anesthetic, all while being forced to watch old Paulie Shore movies.

I’m leaning toward option 2!
———————————————————–

Wouldn’t the Paulie Shore movie be a sedative?

#211 Mark on 12.22.15 at 2:53 pm

“She doesn’t need an employment letter, she needs to see one of those bankruptcy folks.”

Good lord. If banks are still willing to extend her a bigger HELOC, then the chances of her being in a situation of insolvency/bankruptcy are practicaly nil. A trustee, at best, would take her money, maybe give her some counselling, and then advise her to either sell the house, or simply to take on more credit and come back when there’s an actual case of insolvency.

Toronto RE has dropped over the past couple years (although you wouldn’t know it by looking at the Realtor-generated ‘averages’). But not by enough to put many, if any into negative equity. If lenders are still talking about being able to extend HELOCs, especially onces into the 6-figures, there’s definitely equity available. Although the end game, if this problem isn’t dealt with, either by employment, or restructuring of one’s affairs (ie: sell the house), obviously would eventually come to involve a bankruptcy trustee.

“Mark is also annoying–the only lesson to be learned from him is that “a little knowledge is a dangerous thing”.”

A rather unfortunate slur. If there’s something that I’ve said that you don’t agree with, or find to be lacking in knowledge, by all means, speak up. But I’m glad to back up everything nearly everything I say with verifiable facts.

#212 IHCTD9 on 12.22.15 at 3:00 pm

DELETED

#213 Darryl on 12.22.15 at 3:05 pm

#200 Smoking Man on 12.22.15 at 1:22 pm

#191 BCD on 12.22.15 at 12:10 pm
#1 Bananasan on 12.21.15 at 4:59 pm
Hey Garth, may I suggest taxidermy as the most conservative conservation solution for your rightwing dingdongs collection of people posting comments here? I see most are Trump-size nutbars which is a statistical anomaly hard to explain given the relative population sizes of the USA versus the Canada. Must be something in the aurora to generate that fat tail wart on the Bell curve. Or is it that the mean interval *is* the fat tail…
___________________________________________
Well said

It’s getting to the point where I am scrolling past most of the comments and only reading the people I know have something decent to say.

This blog is being ruined by the likes of Smoking Fool and all the rest of the personas he posts under. . .not to mention a couple of other fools. Mark is also annoying–the only lesson to be learned from him is that “a little knowledge is a dangerous thing”.

Can someone attempt to chronicle the different posters on here on a seperate webpage with a simple “legitimate” or “foolhardy” ranking?

And where would you land? — Garth
…………………

BCD do you think anyone gives a shit as to who you read or don’t read.

And they call me a narcissist.

You have to be a liberal with those passive aggressive, key strokes.
————————————————————-

This guy calls everyone who thinks he’s a knob a Liberal .
I’m as conservative as they get but he called me a Liberal .
I think I’m correct on the knob thing though.

#214 IHCTD9 on 12.22.15 at 3:07 pm

#208 gut check on 12.22.15 at 2:43 pm
@ #205 Millennial Realist on 12.22.15 at 2:23 pm
Remember, the women’s vote put Justin into power.

****************************
numbers, please.

(BTW, “it’s so obvious” isn’t a number)

____________________________________________

Indeed. The way JT is going, women may not appreciate such public association between Justin Trudeau, and female votes about this time next year.

#215 Other Brother Darryl on 12.22.15 at 3:08 pm

#152 January on 12.22.15 at 2:37 am
Jan 2016 is the spring market here in yvr. .I know of a half dozen home owers who are about to spend there last xmas in their home..they are giddy about cashing out. Me thinks there’s gonna be flood of listings coming to mls real soon. Merry last Christmas in the house honey!
—————————————-
I mostly agree. I think Star Wars, Miss Universe, Christmas, and Trump are a big distraction at the moment.

In Coquitlam, there are less than a dozen homes for sale UNDER $900K. There is no supply. If you listed a decent well priced home right now, you would have multiple offers guaranteed. Good curb appeal going fast… The rest sits on market. People are willing to bid a little higher to get something above average.

I think most people are indeed paying attention here, but the situation in YVR remains the same. There are jobs here and demand for housing will rise further in 2016. Just take a trip to Home Depot and watch…. people are spending money here!

#216 Nuke on 12.22.15 at 3:10 pm

If wages haven’t advanced in 30 years, why are people happy that house prices have increased? All this talk about $600k for a basic house when you should not pay more than 3 times your income for one means that average wage should be $200k. I don’t see wages increasing to that level anytime soon, so no reason other than silly speculators and way past due date ZIRP to make this insanity seem rational.

While I own a nice detached cape cod house outright, I opted to rent a downtown TO townhouse from the city when it was built 25 years ago. The freehold properties in the development have increased well north of $1,000,000 but my rent has only gone up about 1% a year. What is more peculiar is that we have a bigger backyard and a full playground and inner park compared to the cookie cutter freeholds. The city has been the best landlord, they replace stoves, fridges, furnaces on demand. The entire kitchen was remodeled in very tasteful hardwood. The windows, roof, backyard patio and driveways have all been upgraded over the recent years. The city also gets together with our small community and we discuss the funds available for special projects.

Early this year, there was some chatter on the news about people earning six figures living in community housing. However it turns that market rent helps subsidize to the tune of millions a year the rent geared to income properties, not to mention it stabilizes the community as it ensures a mixed population and income.

It would be a great thing if this cooperative housing was brought back to the forefront. It keeps costs down and ensures a more cohesive community.

#217 Darryl on 12.22.15 at 3:14 pm

#204 Millennial Realist on 12.22.15 at 2:20 pm

Sorry, neocon blogdogs.

Trump just jumped – the shark.

Not going up in the polls anymore, either.

As much else as there is to dislike, his comments about Clinton (whom I also dislike) getting “schlonged” in 2008 will get way too much play, and be too powerful in turning away women voters. He would certainly not defeat a female candidate now.

Quite the goof, really, as he was looking pretty Teflon. Put together with his “disgusting” references to a woman going to the bathroom, and well…..impossible to ignore now.

If the other Republican stooges work together, this will probably mean he will not even get the nomination.

Time for a reset of all those calculations – almost a certainty that Clinton will be president next.
————————————————————
Millennial Realist …… You should meet Freedom first .
That would be fun.

#218 Balmuto on 12.22.15 at 3:23 pm

#210 Mark

“Toronto RE has dropped over the past couple years (although you wouldn’t know it by looking at the Realtor-generated ‘averages’).”

You also wouldn’t know it by looking at the Teranet index, which you acknowledged in an earlier post DOES adjust for the sales mix. According to Teranet, Toronto home prices are up 17.6% percent in the two years ended Nov. 30, 2015.

Now you’re saying that Toronto prices are actually down over that timeframe. Where is your evidence for this???

#219 paul on 12.22.15 at 3:31 pm

Well I guess it’s not different in the States.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/22/existing-home-sales-down-105-in-november.html

US documentation requirements just changed, delaying a lot of closings. — Garth

#220 IHCTD9 on 12.22.15 at 3:33 pm

#211 IHCTD9 on 12.22.15 at 3:00 pm
DELETED
_________________________________________

Didn’t think that’d get through.. :)

If she ends up POTUS though, we’ll find out if she has been holding a grudge all these years…

#221 noel on 12.22.15 at 3:43 pm

#215 Nuke

“If wages haven’t advanced in 30 years, why are people happy that house prices have increased?”

Wages have advanced over the last 30 years, by just under 3% per year, outpacing inflation, which has advanced at just under 2% per year.

#222 Mark on 12.22.15 at 3:44 pm

“You also wouldn’t know it by looking at the Teranet index, which you acknowledged in an earlier post DOES adjust for the sales mix. ”

If you read my previous posts on the topic, you would have read my explanation that Teranet is a lagging indicator, a sort of low-pass filter, on account of the methodology distributing price changes on individual properties evenly over the difference in transactional dates. So by the time decreases show up on Teranet, things are well, very well into the rear-view mirror.

For instance, say you have a property in the Teranet index that went up 100% over the past 7.2 years. Teranet thus, for the purposes of its index, computes the price change at 10%/annum. Even though, the price may very well have been up 120% for 5 years, and then fallen 20% in the last 2 years of the sequence (for a 7.2-year return of 10%/annum). When large numbers of samples are added up and appropriately weighted, what you end up with is the Teranet index lagging the real world quite severely.

#223 AfterTheHouseSold on 12.22.15 at 3:47 pm

#199 Nick the Greek (Alberta)
“My wife’s company…laid off 4600 employees in the last year alone. That’s about half their workforce. My wife has yet to hear or read anything about it anywhere!”

Same here at GM in Oshawa Ontario. “According to Ron Svajlenko, president of Unifor 222, the last Camaro is set to roll off the line December 17. The third shift ends December 18.” That date has come and gone.

While the 1000 layoffs were mitigated by those taking retirement, it does not negate the fact that there are now 1000 less people working at the plant. ONE THOUSAND jobs gone. Not with a bang, but a whimper.

#224 X on 12.22.15 at 3:57 pm

Today on CBC The Current tgetvwere talking about the economy and when it came around to talking about housing affordability they were saying that because a lot of jobs are not permanent young people should buy a house so they have something to sell if things go sideways. That makes no sense. If your job is impermanent you need to be mobile, not tied down to a piece of land. Crazy.

#225 IHCTD9 on 12.22.15 at 4:21 pm

#172 noel on 12.22.15 at 9:16 am
Not surprising that house prices in Calgary go down when the largest source of employment in the province is in serious turmoil.

This won’t happen in Vancouver or Toronto. Vancouver is a much nicer place to live in all aspects, and has a more diverse economy than anywhere in Alberta.

Toronto has one of the most diverse local economies in the world. And while the climate sucks like Calgary, there is no single event that can have the same impact as oil does on Calgary.

I feel bad for people in Calgary, but declines in their real estate market have no bearing on YVR or YYZ.
__________________________________________

I don’t have a crystal ball, but I can tell you one thing without a shadow of a doubt – that is, what happens in Alberta affects all of Canada – and beyond even.

In fact, the entirety of the Canadian Energy and Mining industry affects the entirety of the country for better or worse.

I was just talking to a supplier of mine who’s brother was just laid off. He lives and worked in Toronto, the company he worked for is a diamond mining company. The mine closure that killed off his job was located 220 kilometers northeast of Yellowknife, NWT.

I’ve long believed that the housing decline in the GTA will ultimately be driven by job instability. It’s been a long ride down, and the trajectory is steeper now than ever. Toronto (and the rest of Ontario) has lost 100’s of thousands of manufacturing positions, and wages are stagnant for most private industries. The GTA is a very distracted population – half of them born outside of the country – quite unaware of the shit-storm that is brewing in Ontario.

I spoke with a temp. buyer at a multinational household name Oil/Gas company just yesterday. He was laid off in Ft. Mac, now he’s got the pedal down trying to make ends meet for peanuts with no job security, benefits, or pension. Many more are already here or on the way.

IMHO, all it is going to take is a good solid understanding of the big picture to take hold in the GTA. That may start with a big headline like GM leaving Oshawa, or it may come to popular opinion via working folks talking amongst themselves. Once the fear is manifested, wallets will slam shut, and that will be all she wrote for GTA home values among other things…

#226 april on 12.22.15 at 4:29 pm

Carl #180 – and where would your “neighborhood” be?

#227 Bottoms_Up on 12.22.15 at 4:31 pm

#217 Balmuto on 12.22.15 at 3:23 pm
—————————
There is a mental health spectrum disorder known as psychosis. This is characterized by being out of touch with reality (but many people live and function fine while having it). Worst case it ends up with a random stabbing where the person is simply trying to determine if aliens are after them. It is possible some bloggers here suffer from this.

#228 Bottoms_Up on 12.22.15 at 4:35 pm

#222 AfterTheHouseSold on 12.22.15 at 3:47 pm
—————————-
And $30,000,000 per year lost from the government tax base, plus loss of a similar amount of dollars being spent into the economy.

#229 Bottoms_Up on 12.22.15 at 4:41 pm

#207 Retired Boomer WI on 12.22.15 at 2:40 pm
——————————
I would take a party beholden to money any day over a racist, biogot, xenophobe, misogynistic A-hole.

#230 For those about to flop... on 12.22.15 at 4:48 pm

This guy probably had a worse year than you even if your portfolio stunk it up this year.

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/markets/carlos-slim-is-the-biggest-loser-among-worlds-400-richest-people/ar-BBnOm7E?li=AAggNbc

#231 Doug in London on 12.22.15 at 5:57 pm

@X, post #223:
Wow, I must be missing something, as I expected much better than such rubbish from the CBC. It just goes to show you when you hear something like that from the media it’s further confirmation that most people have bought in and we’re at or just past a peak. If you’re in this kind of volatile temporary job market, you’re best to keep some money in cash. If you absolutely MUST buy something, buy what’s on sale now like preferred share ETFs (I’m experiencing deja vu again about this subject) or pipeline stocks. If you MUST buy real estate, buy REITs instead!

#232 Smoking Man on 12.22.15 at 8:56 pm

#229 Bottoms_Up on 12.22.15 at 4:41 pm
#207 Retired Boomer WI on 12.22.15 at 2:40 pm
——————————
I would take a party beholden to money any day over a racist, biogot, xenophobe, misogynistic A-hole.
..

You just can’t read between the lines grasshopper.

Call grath, ask him what you should do with your, it’s a stretch , your 35k a year.

Cause your mind is not ready to invest in the real world.

#233 NiftyWilly on 12.22.15 at 10:06 pm

I took a different tact about 18 months ago and sold my house in the greater Edmonton area at a small profit – it paid the fees – and purchased a smaller home in a smaller community outside of Red Deer/Calgary. Far enough that no one there would come everyday for supper, but close enough to be very accessible. I pocketed several hundred k doing this, and in my opinion have somewhat insulated myself from the large swings that we see in the major urban centers.

The smaller cities/towns have great services and offer good value for the taxes. People are here to help without the long line-ups. There seemed to be a movement of retired people getting out of the city and settling where the services are decent and people very friendly. I will have zero debt and owned assets in a couple of years in preparation for retirement.
Consider where you live, and what 300 thousand less dollars for housing will do for your future – even if you commute an hour each way every day. Money in the bank bro!

#234 walter on 12.22.15 at 10:22 pm

If Hilary put only her face and let her husband guide the country then she could be a good president

By far she is not Margaret Thatcher

#235 Nuke on 12.23.15 at 9:08 am

#221 noel on 12.22.15 at 3:43 pm

Pew Research Center “But after adjusting for inflation, today’s average hourly wage has just about the same purchasing power as it did in 1979… In fact, in real terms the average wage peaked more than 40 years ago: The $4.03-an-hour rate recorded in January 1973 has the same purchasing power as $22.41 would today.”

Closer to home
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/11-626-x/11-626-x2012008-eng.htm

Statscan shows after inflation real wage median wages went from just under $19ph to just under $21ph. about .33% from 1981-2011

Anyway you cut it, wages for the average worker have been stagnating at best and left in the dust to the rentiers and executives.. Executives’ comp went from about 20 times the average wage to 300 times the average wage over the same time frame.

#236 CJBob on 12.23.15 at 9:45 am

Anyone have tips on how to save on the USD conversion? I bought something small on my RB Visa and the exchange they charged me was 1.436
Similar problem when you go to a bank to get USD for a vacation.

#237 Doug in London on 12.23.15 at 10:26 am

@NiftyWilly, post #233:
It’s good to see someone here is paying attention, and knows when to take the money and run!

#238 calgary64 on 12.23.15 at 10:54 am

i can confirm the Calgary housing market stagnation.
i have been looking for over two years so i have a good understanding.
move in ready houses in top communities which were priced “right” used to sell within a week.
now they do not. all six i am watching are still on the market. however prices are not being lowered yet. reminds me of a comment somewhere (here?) that people holding these housing “investments” would rather eat walls than lower the price. EI, LOC and family loans/gifts allow people to cling on for upto 5 years i guess.
these houses are in 500-550K range. if housing went up at same as wage growth i would guess these should be around 400-450K. and that is my target buy price.

#239 IHCTD9 on 12.23.15 at 3:24 pm

#238 calgary64 on 12.23.15 at 10:54 am
i can confirm the Calgary housing market stagnation.
i have been looking for over two years so i have a good understanding.
move in ready houses in top communities which were priced “right” used to sell within a week.
now they do not. all six i am watching are still on the market. however prices are not being lowered yet. reminds me of a comment somewhere (here?) that people holding these housing “investments” would rather eat walls than lower the price. EI, LOC and family loans/gifts allow people to cling on for upto 5 years i guess.
these houses are in 500-550K range. if housing went up at same as wage growth i would guess these should be around 400-450K. and that is my target buy price.
___________________________________________

Out my way (small town southern Ontario) I’ve been watching several 400K+ houses near my place. One sold quick to a local business owner final price unknown.

Another sat with periodic price drops from 490K down to 400K, after 5 months it sold – final price unknown, and it looks like the new owner is planning a flip as work is being done, but the place is still empty 2 months later. Whoever bought this place probably will get slaughtered if it is a flip attempt.

One came off the market unsold, work is now being done – probably will see this one up again in the spring – they’ll probably ask for more…

The last one is still sitting on the market – they are on realtor #2, price went down 50K over the summer. It will be 1 year trying to sell this spring – price has not moved since summer, current owners have moved out, and it is sitting empty with the power and heat on.

Meanwhile, amongst the nice places, you can buy the equivalent of a 416 teardown for 100K – yes 100 grand – on an acre to boot. Totally salvageable houses too.

I think my local market pretty much reflects reality.