All in the family

Forty minutes by car (an hour and a half in the rush) west of downtown Toronto lie the vast suburbs of Milton and north Oakville. This is where young couples go who must have a home (average $600,000) and cannot afford to buy a detached place in 416 (average $1.1 million). For this they pay another price. Monolithic design. Zombie commute. Strained services. No trees. Homogeneity.

But this is the leading edge of Canadian society. Vast numbers of people want it. They’re willing to overlook so much, in order to embrace it.

Here’s a comment from a buyer posting on the community site for Milton’s Hawthorne Village – the creation of a builder (Mattamy) so large it actually hammered together many of these homes 16 hours a day on an assembly line inside a factory:

“I took 2 days off work to line up. Was awesome…got to know my neighbours and I would do it again if need be. Mind you Mattamy raised the price of my house $40,000 during that time…so well worth lining up and losing two days of work…

“We kept checking Mattamy’s website and the site plan was leaked couple weeks in advance so I knew which lot I wanted. We did all our research prior to buying and knew which house we wanted too. In all honestly, I wish I had purchased 2 homes because we had the first 2 spots in line…”

If you ever doubt real estate is a mania in Canada, a social affliction, then remember those words. “Mattamy raised the price of my house $40,000 during that time…so well worth lining up and losing two days of work…” This is what happens to a society when money’s so cheap it’s considered virtually free, and young couples focus only on the monthly, not the pile of debt they’re walking into. These folks often got a down payment gifted to them by the Bank of Mom, believe interest rates can never rise, and guys like me are geezer idiots.

Days ago the mortgage broker association of Canada issued a big report, in the wake of the T2 government’s spike to down payment requirements. “Continued restriction of mortgage activity would be dangerous, not just for the housing market, but also for the broader economy,” it warned darkly.

Meanwhile most commenters had reached another conclusion – increasing down payments for houses above $500,000 is tepid, at best. On the average Mattamy house, that would require just five grand more, or twenty bucks a month. It’s only when interest rates rise or more jobs are lost that the disease which makes people line up and suffer $40,000 price increases while they stand there, freezing, will be cured.

Of course much of this would not occur without the Family Bank. By feeding the entitlement of their children, so many Boomer parents encourage their kids to walk into unrepayable debt to buy houses at inflated levels with debt that will inevitably spike in cost. They may also be sucking away their own financial security to do it.

One of our big banks (BMO) just produced some eye-popping numbers. Half of parents with Millennials say they’re willing to retire later in order to subsidize their children. A third say they’re willing to retire on less to do so and a fifth say they’ll assume their kids’ debt. These same souls – at least half – report they never received that kind of monetary support from their own parents, but now feel no choice other than to shower it upon their offspring.

Why are they encouraging the kids to line up outside the Mattamy sales trailer and bulk up on a mortgage?

Says the bank:

The willingness of Canadian parents to make these sacrifices reflects the anxiety they have about their adult children’s future well-being. They are most concerned that their children may have:
* Financial problems caused by debt (41 per cent)
* Difficulties achieving financial independence (34 per cent)
* Insufficient or lack of employment (31 per cent)

Well, figure that one out. By enabling their children, who have insufficient savings, to buy a house they could never otherwise afford and qualify for a fat mortgage, these parents think they’re doing them a favour. In fact they might be creating financial stress, since debt will grow more expensive, houses may lose value, jobs can disappear and mobility is squished. In addition, are the spawn not just getting more dependent, more entitled, with every gift and subsidy?

The bank also makes this point: lots of parents can’t afford this largess.  Gfting a kid $500 a month (let alone a house down payment) equals six grand a year, which could turn into $260,000 in RRIF retirement income over twenty years if invested by the parentals. When nine in ten people haven’t maxed their TFSAs, retirement savings rates have plunged and the economy seems poised to slip backwards, what purpose is served by shackling and indulging the kids while wounding their seniors?

Well, happily for Mattamy, few listen to me. Life, bumper-to-bumper on the 401, is just too sweet.

401 modified

257 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 12.20.15 at 11:57 am

UCc Said early post.

Anyway I heard a new band was at Seneca this weekend. Gartho and the Grammarians.
Opening act was latin band: Del Eted.

#2 For those about to flop... on 12.20.15 at 12:00 pm

Eleven out of ten Millennials have their heads up their bums.

#3 Senta on 12.20.15 at 12:03 pm

Garth, Any ideas of how to make money from all this craziness? God knows you have done your best to save them. They won’t listen. Now we have figure out how to feed on their carcasses (a la, the big short).

#4 Kreditanstalt on 12.20.15 at 12:04 pm

“It’s only when interest rates rise or more jobs are lost that the disease which makes people line up and suffer $40,000 price increases while they stand there, freezing, will be cured.”

See the point? We actually NEED a recession, to clear out the malinvestments and capital misallocations resulting from YEARS of cheap “money”.

Many, many people’s “jobs” resulted from, and are dependent on, that ZIRP malinvestment. They will be corrected.

#5 cyclist on 12.20.15 at 12:05 pm

Hey. Mattamy rocks.

http://www.mattamynationalcyclingcentre.ca/en/index.asp

#6 Rich Young on 12.20.15 at 12:07 pm

AND… Calgary still floats about at around a 6% discount with oil at a 50% discount and bankruptcy and more layoffs. Many here believe that housing can’t fall despite all that is going on. Yet, Landlords are listing all they can as many homes for sale lay empty. When will this crack? When Bank of Mom&Dad stop keeping prices afloat. They are the problem. They are stepping up and thus creating this imbalance in prices. The little ones just pay up the asking price. What a joke! And banks are in on it. The refuse to foreclose on anyone with over 20% equity I believe. I’ve been told many delinquent loans just sit on the books.

Smile and carry on buying, nothing to see hear. Cheap money and Bank of Mom&Dad are distorting reality.

Cheers,

Rich

#7 Fine wild roasted gonads on 12.20.15 at 12:08 pm

ne of our big banks (BMO) just produced some eye-popping numbers. Half of parents with Millennials say they’re willing to retire later to subsidize their children. A third say they’re willing to retire on less to do so and a fifth say they’ll assume their kids’ debt. These same people – at least half of them – report they never received that kind of monetary support from their own parents, but now feel no choice other than to shower it upon their offspring.
—–
Yoozers well that sure as heck ain’t me. Get out there kiddos. Stick it to the boomers. Don’t buy their house. Build a life. Hey anyone want to buy my house in Calgary?

#8 rawdiswar on 12.20.15 at 12:14 pm

I really don’t think many realize how truly clueless many Millennial mortgage holders are.

I personally know a few people who didn’t know what an amortization table was, how mortgage interest is calculated and that they were obligated to pay property tax every year. This was from people who were subtly bragging about how much their house was worth, don’t know what a TFSA is, what a dividend is or generally have a clue about investing.

The doctrine of minimum monthly payment is now dogma. Speaking out against it is like speaking out on religion, on anthropomorphic climate change, or how patriotism is brain-washing on a nation scale.

We’re proper F*&^ed.

Good night, and good luck.

#9 Doug t on 12.20.15 at 12:15 pm

For now anyway my son has no desire to accumulate “meaningless shit” like so many seem to froth at the mouth to possess. This race to have it all is like a plague – Sending a message to our kids that they HAVE to have a brand new massive house no matter the cost is just wrong. Wake up people – it’s no wonder the world is in a heap of trouble.

#10 David McDonald on 12.20.15 at 12:26 pm

The era of ultra low interest rates may be coming to an end but it will be a slow process. European rates are almost negative and China is pushing down the value of the Yuan. The USA can’t compete with much higher rates and a soaring dollar. The Canadian real estate bubble won’t pop in the near future.

#11 SWL1976 on 12.20.15 at 12:32 pm

The willingness of Canadian parents to make these sacrifices reflects the anxiety they have about their adult children’s future well-being.

If parents really do have concern about their children’s future well being then I suggest they take a hard does of reality. These same parents should educate themselves and their children about what is really going in the world these days. The reality is that these stories will not be told on any MSM news feeds.

Are these same parents willing to accept what they might find out?

If not, perhaps a life of denial and debt slavery really is the extent of their comfort level.

Just don’t pass that on to your children please.

#12 Retired Boomer WI on 12.20.15 at 12:37 pm

If my kid wants a house he is going to save up his money for the down payment, on a 15 year note, or he can just rent like so many others.

Somebody has the idiotic notion that renting is ‘bad’ that you are throwing money away. No, you are getting the space for a set period of time, generally a month at a time.

Buying, you will pay annual property taxes, insurance, up-keep, and will have to do the reno at some point. You are also ‘stuck’ in that location, unless you sell it, or maybe rent it out, allowing you to relocate.

Rents do go up. I don’t wish to surprise anyone here, but the taxes, insurances, utilities also go up on your own place.

I own my own home. $600 a month roughly to turn the key and I OWN IT – no mortgage, that’s just the price to live in this place!

Bargain? Hardly, add in the lost opportunity costs on the investment needed to build the place (we did), actual carry costs of the 14 years mortgage, and after mortgage retirement the monthly unavoidable costs…

I could have rented a similar place for the same money, and never worried about replacing the hot water tank, roof, etc etc.

So, somebody tell me where owning a home is a “fantastic investment” and I will show you an idiot that can’t DO math. It is a lifestyle choice nothing more!

NOTE: We will be changing ‘lifestyle’ in a couple of years!

#13 Julie K. on 12.20.15 at 12:38 pm

Both the Canadian family and Canadian real estate quality as Gordian knots.

Better to be all out.

#14 Julie K. on 12.20.15 at 12:40 pm

*qualify (not ‘quality’ – but might be a point too).

#15 All in the family | Realties.ca on 12.20.15 at 12:42 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/12/20/all-in-the-family/ […]

#16 Renter's Revenge! on 12.20.15 at 12:49 pm

Milton isn’t cheaper.

For people working in Toronto, the cost of living in Toronto vs living in Milton and commuting to Toronto is the same.

For example, commuting an extra 100 km per day (50 km each way) would cost $0.50/km x 100 km x 260 days/year x 38 years = $500,000. Which is equal to the price difference between a house in Toronto and a house in Milton ($1.1M vs $600k).

That is not even including inflation in the cost of commuting.

Also, the extra 3 hrs/day that you spend commuting could be used to make extra money or do something else worthwhile (like spend time with family).

In other words, if you can’t afford a house in Toronto, you can’t afford a house in Milton.

#17 Moses71 on 12.20.15 at 12:53 pm

Wow. Must be nice.
Hope the parents have a lot more where that came from should their child’s “investment” tank

#18 BC Guy on 12.20.15 at 12:56 pm

Plenty of blame to go around for the current state of affairs in Canada’s real estate market:

– blame the people who “must live in or near the city”
– blame Poloz for dropping interest rates too low (person of the year – sheesh!)
– blame Harper and his Cons for reducing mortgage requirements (longer terms, lower down payments)
– blame the Federal and Provincial governments for keeping taxes on extremely large land holders relatively low, and not releasing enough Crown land for the average person to buy while continuing to welcome 300,000 immigrants/refugees every year
– blame the parents who give big downpayments to their kids to facilitate this madness
– blame the real estate agents for charging high fees while encouraging the “buy now or forever be shut out” mentality

Nice doggie music video, by the way.

Shame about Milton. Used to be a nice, rural, peaceful place, before getting swallowed up by the developers.

#19 BC Guy on 12.20.15 at 12:58 pm

The best way to cash in on this madness is to buy shares in Canada’s big banks.

Steady profits and share increases for 150 years and counting. Banks never lose.

#20 JamesA on 12.20.15 at 1:02 pm

Maybe when the parents mess up their own retirement trying to help junior, they can all live in the big ugly box together! What joy. I think the whole multigenerational family living together thing is the norm in most of the world. Maybe it will be the case here too.

Commuting on the train is not that bad (Vancouver’s skytrain’s only flaw is the junkies trying to pick your pockets). You can a least read or whatever. Sitting in traffic is soul crushing. I had to drive from the city to Kitchener/Waterloo for work once. It may have been my imagination (my eyes were mostly on my own side of the highway) but it seemed like the slow rolling traffic jam made it all the way from KW to the city at 8ish in the AM. The horror.

#21 debtified on 12.20.15 at 1:06 pm

“In all honestly, I wish I had purchased 2 homes because we had the first 2 spots in line…”

As if she was talking about concert tickets. Oh the regrets!

Too funny.

… and sad at the same time.

#22 Bram on 12.20.15 at 1:09 pm

Garth, I’m having trouble following your comments on the $40,000.

I’m sure the buyer meant: I’ve lost 2 workdays but managed to avoid the $40,000 price increase.

So, yes, he does value the 40K, and most sane people would trade 2 days camping in the cold for $40K.

Bram

#23 Ogopogo on 12.20.15 at 1:12 pm

Funny how the foaming-at-the-mouth hordes who bayed at the prediction that the US would raise rates in 2015 have suddenly gone stone silent. That is the psychology of the realtor brain and the zombies who ape it. Once shown reality, these mindless creatures skulk back to the shadows, grumbling in hurt abjection.

This would be comical if it weren’t so disastrous for the majority of the Canadian herd, the bovine and docile who populate the Mattamy and Mattamy-like subdivisions of this pathetic nation.

Watch the scum realtors and their ilk deny rate increases and the slow collapse of RE in Canada all the way down.

#24 Chris on 12.20.15 at 1:19 pm

Being a consumer in Canada is pretty sad. Canadian businesses are really good at one thing and that is gouging. Everywhere you turn Canadian businesses will get the absolute max amount from your pocket. Even the TTC and Go train, the number of trips required to make a monthly pass worthwhile is higher than anything in the US. The only exception may be the American breed companies Walmart and etc. Maybe Canadian businesses are just smarter or the consumers are just used to it. Because I know consumers in the US will not stand it. Raising prices $40,000 in 2 days?i think that would damage the company brand and reputation very badly. But I guess reputation anf brand really do not matter here. If you slap consumers on cheek apprently they will turn the other cheek to you for the second one. Maybe because they don’t have a choice. They don’t have a choice because no onr is fighting for it. Mattamy has adventured into the US and I will wait to see what a disaster that would be. If they pull this kind of trick in the US, they will be back home in no time.

#25 Panhead on 12.20.15 at 1:25 pm

When I phoned my ex boss and told him I would not return to work (retire) after being locked out for 4 months, his first reply was “want to come back under contract?” To this I replied “my commuting day’s are over.” One of my coleagues who retired at least 10 years ago retired for the same reason back then. It’s way worse now out here in 604land. Now you have to pay tolls if you are unlucky enough to use the new bridges (soon to be more). Saves time I’m shure, but adds to the monthly bill. We are all screwed but the young are sooooo screwed.

#26 Glen Doubleday on 12.20.15 at 1:27 pm

Garth,
Do derivatives have any threat to the Fiscal Balances worldwide? I saw recently they amount to the Quadrillions and beyond. How could you see this playing out?
Best Thanks,
Glen

#27 I'm stupid on 12.20.15 at 1:37 pm

Why can’t anyone else see why boomer parents are doing this? It’s simple, you just need to understand the generation. They’re the generation that invented “keeping up with the Jones'”. It all has to do with vanity. If the Jones’ kids own homes and mine don’t they’re winning. Couple this with the kids being raised in a spoiled bubble and this is the outcome. The parents do it so they can brag about how well their kids are doing and the kids feel like their entitled to get free money.

#28 Herf on 12.20.15 at 1:41 pm

Boys to the ‘hood:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqdNRePTze0

#29 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 12.20.15 at 1:54 pm

PAY ATTENTION…ON THE OTHER SIDE…

…of the Pacific Ocean, thousands of miles from us ever-so environmentally-“concerned” Vancouver Islanders, is a new development which should be noticed by the rest of us:

–completion of the biggest Chinese-built deep sea oil drilling platform, so far.

As Alberta, with its loser Socialist government and collapsing credit rating, FINALLY goes down for the count, it seems not everyone is still bearish on the future of oil! China isn’t.

LOOK at this from the China Daily Mail news organization:

http://chinadailymail.com/2015/12/16/china-building-3-more-large-deep-sea-oil-rigs-to-explore-for-oil-in-south-china-sea/

Every country has its own reality.

This new rig is not only going to be able to dig out oil that is 30-thousand feet down under the South China Sea.

It is also an affirmation that oil and natural gas have long life spans, STILL, inspite of the insane yowlings of the environmentally-“aware” peasant classes in the primarily non-Asian world.

China has a history of doing things for the “long term,” the Great Wall of China being THE classic example.

Sure, they also have a history of lousing up the long term. But eventually China comes back to “square one” and starts all over again.

World commodity prices are being hammered by a strengthening US dollar and lack of sufficient demand.

For Alberta’s oil patch it means it’s time to shut things down and layoff nearly 100-thousand people by the end of this year.

For China, it is the realization that what goes down eventually goes back up again!

Once more with feeling: the West is in decline through lack of confidence in its abilities to change with the times.

China, therefore, grabs the initiative and ploughs ahead aboard its developmental “bulldozer” whose goal is to improve the lives of its citizens and to spread its influence in ever wider circles.

This rig is why China has so far built eight huge islands in the internationally-contested South China Sea where rigs will be drilling under the full protection of elements of the Chinese military that is gathering on those islands.

This is driving the Yanks nuts.

They cannot and WILL NOT do anything about it, because they can’t.

Interesting.

Back at Mattamy Homes in Ontario, when will layoffs start in THAT factory? Just asking.

#30 Daisy Mae on 12.20.15 at 1:57 pm

Loved it! And such canine talent!

#31 Nanaimo Bar on 12.20.15 at 1:58 pm

US Fed releases their new lineup for 2016. – Could More Hawks in the lineup favour rising interest rates?

This Is the Fed’s Hawk-to-Dove Scorecard
By Christopher Condon, Jeanna Smialek
http://bloom.bg/1mcvh1G
Bloomberg

The newcomers include three hawks and a dove and replace a hawk, a dove and two neutrals.

The new voters will be Boston’s Eric Rosengren, Cleveland’s Loretta Mester, Kansas City’s Esther George and James Bullard from St. Louis. They replace John Williams from San Francisco, Chicago’s Charles Evans, Richmond’s Jeffrey Lacker and Atlanta’s Dennis Lockhart.

Eric Rosengen – score 2 doves,
Rosengren was an early proponent of the idea that getting the first hike over with would make it easier for the Fed to follow a slow and gradual path of tightening after liftoff

Loretta Mester – score, one hawk
Mester has said since June that the U.S. economy is strong enough to sustain a rate hike

Ester George – score, 2 Hawks.
She has repeatedly warned the Fed could prompt asset-price bubbles with too-low interest rates. She dissented against the Fed’s accommodative policy at seven of eight Fed meetings in 2013, her last year as a voter

James Bullard – Score 1 Hawk
Bullard consistently favored an interest-rate increase throughout 2015. He told reporters he would have dissented at the September FOMC decision to keep rates at zero, if he had been a voter.

#32 Daisy Mae on 12.20.15 at 2:11 pm

“Mattamy raised the price of my house $40,000 during that time…so well worth lining up and losing two days of work…”

**********************

This is becoming a common practise. What fools. Can’t fix ‘stupid’.

#33 Herf on 12.20.15 at 2:14 pm

#8 rawdiswar

“I really don’t think many realize how truly clueless many Millennial mortgage holders are.”

I argue the majority of Canadian society is clueless. Examples abound:

– Albertans elect a tax-happy, spend-happy, regulate-happy majority socialist government containing nobody with any experience or knowledge of their province’s primary industry (i.e. oil/gas). In fact, their new government contains several cabinet ministers and advisers who are on record of protesting and opposing that industry.

– Canadians elect a socialist government that is:

>tax-happy, spend-happy, believes in sunshine, lollipops, rainbows, unicorns and fairy dust and the unsettled question of climate change/global warming;

> is led by a “leader” whose only qualifications are he’s never had a job of any substance that would qualify him to make major economic and social policy decisions for the country, having inherited his father’s wealth, name and aura.

> the “leader” ‘s chief adviser is the same marxist who was the brain-child of Ontario’s green energy program, which has driven up electricity costs in the province for industry and consumers and helped kill or drive out the province’s manufacturing sector.

– the reasons Garth/the bank noted why Canadian parents are subsidizing their kids’ mortages:

* Financial problems caused by debt (41 per cent)

(Yeah, that makes sense: help your kids take on hundreds of thousands of $ of debt, because you’re worried about them getting into debt !?)

* Difficulties achieving financial independence (34 per cent)

(How does coercing and aiding your kids to get into major debt, help them achieve financial independence?)

* Insufficient or lack of employment (31 per cent)

(So, helping your kids to place an economic ball-and-chain or mill-stone around their necks is somehow supposed to “help” their career path/options, particularly in a declining national economy?)

Clueless idiots.

#34 Leo Trollstoy on 12.20.15 at 2:14 pm

#24 Chris on 12.20.15 at 1:19 pm

Raising prices $40,000 in 2 days?i think that would damage the company brand and reputation very badly.

Not for real estate developers.

This is ‘proof’ that their product appreciates in value.

Don’t get left behind syndrome.

Only in Vancouver and Toronto

#35 Slo on 12.20.15 at 2:25 pm

I’m anot older millennial, I turned down money from my parents trying to force me into the market, but it took some long conversations and a few arguments. I can’t imagine a lot of other people my age turning down 60k for a down-payment. Long term thinking is kind of important.

I’m just glad I listened to Garths advice and limited my exposure to canadian markets and didn’t buy a plywood condo. The writing on the wall is there now, and I see a lot of friends who used to be confident, sweating bullets.

#36 Leo Trollstoy on 12.20.15 at 2:32 pm

Don’t worry inflation is only 1%.

*wink*

#37 For those about to flop... on 12.20.15 at 2:37 pm

#32 Daisy Mae on 12.20.15 at 2:11 pm
“Mattamy raised the price of my house $40,000 during that time…so well worth lining up and losing two days of work…”

**********************

This is becoming a common practise. What fools. Can’t fix ‘stupid’.

////////////////////////////////////////////
Daisy Mae and gang you might wanna check this out.

We talkin’ about “practice ” ….not the game,not the game …we talkin’ about ” practice.Allen Iverson

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGDBR2L5kzI

#38 Randy on 12.20.15 at 2:44 pm

Garth, I have dogs and cats but found this meme very funny
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10153796757677629&set=a.123762032628.132884.527227628&type=3&theater

#39 Crappy Pants McGee on 12.20.15 at 2:49 pm

Right…delusional…historic…funny as hell

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

A great in-house quote at Mattamy should be the lesser known PT Barnum line.

“It’s immoral to let a fool keep his money”.

#40 Keith in Calgary on 12.20.15 at 2:51 pm

Sitting in the Javawocky Cafe on the Nanaimo Marina waterfront right now……….currently there are about 800 properties under $600K for sale in this city of 80,000……….do the math. It takes years to sell the average place here……….this is Calgary’s feature………except it’ll be -20 and not +7.

#41 Keith in Calgary on 12.20.15 at 2:52 pm

Meant to say future……

#42 ryan on 12.20.15 at 2:53 pm

If you think the young kids alone have it bad………

Bob, a middle-aged Canadian tourist on his first time in Lincoln, Nebraska, locates the red light district and enters a large brothel.
The madam asks him to be seated and sends over a young lady to entertain the client. They sit and talk, frolic a little, giggle a bit, drink a bit, and she sits on his lap. He whispers in her ear and she gasps and runs away!

Seeing this, the madam sends over a more experienced lady to entertain the gentleman. They sit and talk, frolic a little, giggle a bit, drink a bit, and she sits on his lap. He whispers in her ear and she screams, No!” and walks quickly away!

The madam is surprised that this ordinary looking man has asked for something so outrageous that her two girls will have nothing to do with it.
She decides that only her most experienced lady, Lola, will do. Lola looks a bit tired, but she has never said no and it doesn’t seem likely that anything would surprise her. So the madam sends her over to Bob.

They sit and talk, frolic a little, giggle a bit, drink a bit, and she sits on his lap. He whispers in her ear and she screams, “NO WAY, BUDDY!” smacks him as hard as she can and literally runs away!

Madam is by now absolutely intrigued, having seen nothing like this in all her years of operating a brothel. She hasn’t done the bedroom work herself for a long time, but she did it for many years before she got into management. She’s sure she has said yes at one time or another to everything a man could possibly ask for. The challenge is irresistible.

She just has to find out what this man has wanted that has made her girls so angry. And she sees a chance she can’t pass up to show off to her employees how good she was at what they do.

So she goes over to Bob and says that she’s the best in the house and she is available. She sits and talks with him. They frolic a bit, giggle a bit, and drink a little, and she sits in his lap. And Bob leans forward and whispers in her ear, “Can I pay in Canadian dollars?”

#43 Frank on 12.20.15 at 2:54 pm

Meh, we’re overloaded with debt. Hasn’t been news for years now. Wake me when that starts to change.

#44 Crappy Pants McGee on 12.20.15 at 2:55 pm

Might I humbly add this excerpt from McKay and ask you if any of this sounds familiar?

“Mackay’s Madness of Crowds
Goods allegedly exchanged for a single bulb of the Viceroy[32]
Two lasts of wheat 448ƒ
Four lasts of rye 558ƒ
Four fat oxen 480ƒ
Eight fat swine 240ƒ
Twelve fat sheep 120ƒ
Two hogsheads of wine 70ƒ
Four tuns of beer 32ƒ
Two tons of butter 192ƒ
1,000 lb. of cheese 120ƒ
A complete bed 100ƒ
A suit of clothes 80ƒ
A silver drinking cup 60ƒ
Total 2500ƒ

The modern discussion of tulip mania began with the book Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, published in 1841 by the Scottish journalist Charles Mackay; he proposed that crowds of people often behave irrationally, and tulip mania was, along with the South Sea Bubble and the Mississippi Company scheme, one of his primary examples. His account was largely sourced to a 1797 work by Johann Beckmann titled A History of Inventions, Discoveries, and Origins. In fact, Beckmann’s account, and thus Mackay’s by association, was primarily sourced to three anonymous pamphlets published in 1637 with an anti-speculative agenda.[33] Mackay’s vivid book was popular among generations of economists and stock market participants. His popular but flawed description of tulip mania as a speculative bubble remains prominent, even though since the 1980s economists have debunked many aspects of his account.[33]

According to Mackay, the growing popularity of tulips in the early 17th century caught the attention of the entire nation; “the population, even to its lowest dregs, embarked in the tulip trade”.[6] By 1635, a sale of 40 bulbs for 100,000 florins (also known as Dutch guilders) was recorded. By way of comparison, a ton of butter cost around 100 florins, a skilled laborer might earn 150 florins a year, and “eight fat swine” cost 240 florins.[6] (According to the International Institute of Social History, one florin had the purchasing power of €10.28 in 2002.[34])

By 1636 tulips were traded on the exchanges of numerous Dutch towns and cities. This encouraged trading in tulips by all members of society; Mackay recounted people selling or trading their other possessions in order to speculate in the tulip market, such as an offer of 12 acres (49,000 m2) of land for one of two existing Semper augustus bulbs, or a single bulb of the Viceroy that was purchased for a basket of goods (shown in table) worth 2,500 florins.[32]”

#45 Retired Boomer WI on 12.20.15 at 2:58 pm

I’m curious how this type of ‘help the kids’ scenario will play out say 15-20 years from now…

Government’s have more pressure on them by the sheer numbers of retirees to reduce retiree benefits.
We already see baked into the US future a reduction in social security benefits of about 25% (assuming the early estimate numbers were correct) by roughly 2025-30.
Hey, EXACTLY 15 years on the short end, 20 on the high.
At that point, the social security ‘excess’ contributions will be used up, and the system then reverts to a pay as you go system.

Do you see existing retired geezers being told, “oops, sorry we warned about this, next month your check shrinks by 25%.”

I think it will be great sport! but, then I’m a twisted sort, and think it will be entirely too appropriate for those who never bothered to do but the minimum to get by. Then we can watch them get by will less a 25% off sale as it were…

#46 Marius on 12.20.15 at 3:00 pm

The truth about Fed rate hike:

http://www.commondreams.org/views/2015/12/20/fed-raises-ratesby-paying-banks

#47 prairie person on 12.20.15 at 3:09 pm

http://www.cheknews.ca/victoria-rental-vacancy-rate-lowest-in-canada-causing-urgent-housing-search-for-single-mother-127231/

#48 Frank on 12.20.15 at 3:12 pm

I really don’t think many realize how truly clueless many Millennial mortgage holders are

Up to this point they’re right.

Norms, suggested debt ratios all of that doesn’t mean a damn thing against reality. The reality is that highly leveraged real estate has been the best investment in this country in the last 10 years. We can bitch all we want but anyone that has followed a single asset strategy, however inadvisable, is winning. And when it comes to money it doesn’t matter what’s recommended, it matters what works.

#49 S.Bby on 12.20.15 at 3:15 pm

Rush “Subdivisions” our love affair with far flung housing has been going on for a long time…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYYdQB0mkEU

#50 Drill Baby Drill on 12.20.15 at 3:17 pm

It will be interesting to see how the USA deals with it’s appreciating dollar in 2016.

How did they train those dogs to play those instruments so well ? My dog can’t even shake a paw without a treat.

#51 The Next Bubble on 12.20.15 at 3:18 pm

H20 (Water)

“There is a water procurement rush going on in western countries where fresh water is sold for a few dollars per millions of litres.”

“…will lead to an establishment of a global water trading exchange…”

–> get your water while you can still afford it. This will be worse than those that can’t afford housing. You will have to ration water between family members.

Advice: Get in early or you will regret it. Speculation will put water out of reach (except for drinking) for the bottom third of society.

#52 The Next Bubble on 12.20.15 at 3:19 pm

@Leo T.

Prices in YVR are directly correlated with daily Yuan inflows. Price variations of +- 10% don’t matter.

#53 get me outta here on 12.20.15 at 3:26 pm

Millennial homeowner in Milton here, and extremely perplexed as to why anyone would take pride in living in this dump.
Husband and I purchased a small town home pre construction in 2005 at a reasonable price and have rode the wave up, buying and selling three times, transferring growing equity from property to property. No attachment to any of these homes, just saw an opportunity to benefit from the insanity. The wave has broken and is starting to roll back, never in a million years would I enter the market now. It has peaked and it is time to move on.

Can confirm there are no trees in the subdivisions, the houses are poorly built and in some cases incomplete (it took almost THREE YEARS for the builder to put sod down), extreme traffic congestion.
other popular trends:
-700-800k houses with multiple junky KIA’s, late model toyota corollas/tercels or civics in driveway. You can “afford the house” but cant afford to keep a decent car running
-lack of landscaping and people do not put up fences after waiting period. Had several neighbors refuse to pay their share of fence cost. maybe they are just bad neighbors or maybe they are maxed out
-Extending your single car driveway to be a double car driveway on your tiny lot so essentially your whole “front yard” is a pad of concrete. more parking for KIAs.

but hey, if your only purpose it to follow the LifeScript™ then this is a good option for you, and you likely won’t notice the lack of character and excitement here. The bank of M & D will be pleased enough with you after you pop out 2.5 grandchildren, maybe even put off retirement for a few more years to subsidize you. and the cycle continues………

#54 espressobob on 12.20.15 at 3:27 pm

The true meaning of Christmas.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8peNkcZCd1M

#55 Could it be true? on 12.20.15 at 3:27 pm

Could it be true that some here are shills for the RE industry?

Predict years of doom and gloom for housing that never materializes. Thereby conditioning the masses here to buy buy buy.

#56 prairie person on 12.20.15 at 3:28 pm

The bank of mom and dad grew up in a different time when real estate except for short periods of time, did go up. They are not financial geniuses, they aren’t bankers, they aren’t mortgage brokers. They’re just mom and dad and they know what they have experienced. The generation that went through the Great Depression was terrified of owing money. The carried that into a time when borrowing money, leveraging made sense. Just like military generals, people fight the last war, not the future one. As well, the times have changed. At one time you went to a bank or credit union and the person you talked to went over the implications of the loan. They were getting a salary, not a commission on how many mortgages you could push through the system. Stop the incentives for giving loans to people who shouldn’t be getting them and it will stop.

#57 Millenial on 12.20.15 at 3:31 pm

Lining up to buy a house. Absurd.

#58 IHCTD9 on 12.20.15 at 3:35 pm

That pic of the 401 made me cringe. I’m off into the GTA insanity tomorrow am to visit customers before Christmas holidays, and that will likely be what I see out my windshield all bloody day…

#59 Millmech on 12.20.15 at 3:36 pm

#16 Renters Revenge
Double that for both spouses working,add wear and tear,don’t forget over 30 years the total cost of mortgage,property taxes,upkeep will double the initial cost of the house.Last but not least these expenses are from after tax dollars that have been earned at a 40% discount(being paid 8hrs for an 11hr workday when you add in commute time).

#60 IHCTD9 on 12.20.15 at 3:39 pm

#29 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 12.20.15 at 1:54 pm

“bulldozer”

————

I like what you said there.

#61 dosouth on 12.20.15 at 3:42 pm

Real love is never letting the kids back in the basement. Real love is letting them fall on their face and get back up. Real love is letting them assume their decisions and pay for them as well. Real love is enjoying the life you have created for yourself so that your kids have something to aspire to….not to have in their 20′ & 30’s for what will they aspire to in their 40″s? Just wanting more….never satisfied.

#62 Ned on 12.20.15 at 3:43 pm

Take your millions to the grave and make your kids suffer until they hit 60.. Then they get all of it? Minus some taxes.. Or gift a bit to them now so they can start living.. And if that means reproducing in the suburbs then that’s their dumb fault.

#63 Nemesis on 12.20.15 at 3:49 pm

#CommutingIsFun!… #No,Really!…

http://youtu.be/fk2YRpLnmdU

#64 Randy Randerson on 12.20.15 at 3:51 pm

I’ve been to Oakville twice in my life. Even though there were a lot of million dollars home, I didn’t feel the town particularly livable. You have to drive everywhere, and it wasn’t particularly lively. At night at a local pub, only people over 50 seems to have money to relax over a beer. Perhaps my observation was too limited, but I wouldn’t want to live there.

#65 Freedom First on 12.20.15 at 3:53 pm

Wow! The entitlement attitudes I see in Parents and their offspring, along with their selfishness and self centeredness is truly baffling. And both the Parents and their offspring can’t see they are both screwing each other. This is going to be so ugly.

This is not love. This is foolishness, and in oh so many ways.

#66 IHCTD9 on 12.20.15 at 3:56 pm

#12 Retired Boomer WI on 12.20.15 at 12:37 pm

I own my own home. $600 a month roughly to turn the key and I OWN IT – no mortgage, that’s just the price to live in this place!

—————

Yep, I own as well, figure pretty much about the same $600.00/ month, and I do 99% of the maintenance myself, and heat with wood pellets. It would be near a grand a month if I employed contractors and still used oil heat just to live mortgage free in my own bloody house!

#67 not 1st on 12.20.15 at 4:02 pm

Garth, I thought you were sharper than that. The comment is clearly a developer troll plant. Nobody normal talks that way.

Any body I have ever know that bought a house goes home and has 2 weeks of buyers regret, not wishing they could have bought 2.

And if thats not a plant, then heaven help me our young people are dumb as hammers.

#68 Freedom First on 12.20.15 at 4:03 pm

#12 Retired Boomer WI

Great Post. You nailed it. The truth.

#69 jaybee on 12.20.15 at 4:13 pm

Posts like this make me love Halifax. A five minute commute to take a 10 minute ferry ride to downtown. I have a two story detached home on a large lot on a cul de sac.

A little over an hour drive takes me to my lake front cottage with over a half acre, with 300 feet of cleared water front in the Midst of cottage country.

All of this for much less than one of these Toronto area suburban cookie cutters with monster commutes.

#70 Nanaimo Bar on 12.20.15 at 4:27 pm

Just checked tha TD Bank Mortgage Rates. “Special Offer 5 year Mortgage Rate” is 2.94%. It was 2.69%. They have a new “Special Offer 4 year Mortgage Rate” at 2.74%.

Rates are going up at the Banks. All eyes on the Bond Yield going forward.

#71 not 1st on 12.20.15 at 4:32 pm

#68 jaybee on 12.20.15 at 4:13 pm
—-

Umm, sounds nice but what about the 15 ft of snow?

#72 Tim on 12.20.15 at 4:34 pm

With the money being laundered in Vancouver, the ten percent down will not make any difference.

With that ugly commute to the sterile suburbs of TO, I’d even chose Calgary–ground zero for the economy.

#73 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.20.15 at 4:45 pm

@#25 Panhead

Worked for BCAA did we?

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=20&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwi8jLWktOvJAhXKGx4KHT_jCzk4ChAWCFMwCQ&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.am730.ca%2Fsyn%2F112%2F124230%2F124230&usg=AFQjCNFE1HQkzV1NPyMRcVqRE8Ghr4i6Pg&sig2=wmqWdAQgE3_XQJqdqpUXmg&bvm=bv.110151844,d.dmo

#74 gut check on 12.20.15 at 4:47 pm

One foolish day I found myself on the 401 leaving Guelph for Kingston at 3:30 on a Thursday. I believe it took almost 2 hours in bumper to bumper traffic to make it from Milton to Scarborough.

I can not believe that there are people who do that or some variation of it every. single. day.

That is no way to live, peeps.

#75 TurnerNation on 12.20.15 at 4:49 pm

Empty shelves in Soviet Kanada? The elites will reminds us there’s a war on, we all must do our parts. There sure is (they tell us inflation is 2%). Oh how they will feast in their mansions this year! Look for selfies.

“​”Due to weather related issues in the growing regions coupled with the impact of U.S. exchange,” the sign reads, “we are unfortunately experiencing significantly higher than normal costs and gaps in supply.””
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/superstore-halifax-short-supply-food-security-1.3373316


“Winge uses about 50 kilograms of butter each week. He says he’s more concerned about the current price than the shortage. Demand has nearly doubled the cost of his butter. And that’s not all.

“Right now there’s a chocolate shortage, a hazelnut shortage, and even an almond shortage,” he said. “So the price of all these items has gone up considerably as well.””

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/butter-shortage-1.3372339

#76 Suede on 12.20.15 at 4:50 pm

The house bubble has come and gone. Eek out another 100 k for Toronto and Vancouver in 2016 for home prices.

The next big bubble for 20 years started on Dec 12th.

Im so excited.

And I just can’t hide it.

#77 Mark on 12.20.15 at 4:52 pm

My favourite is listening to all the people, young and old, saying they’ve ‘bought’ something, and in the next sentence, asking me for advice on how they should pay for it.

I pretty much totally recuse myself from talking about financial matters to anyone these days on such account. Not because I can’t offer practical advice, but rather, because its way too hard for me to otherwise hold my tongue and tell them how stupid they are for “buying” first, and asking the very basic questions later.

Sounds like these kids were hook line and sinkered into the Mattamy ruse. Really unfortunate since the GTA trend in pricing has been downwards for the past couple of years. But people are so easily manipulated by hypesters.

As far as taking advantage, well, owning countercyclical stocks these days is like shooting fish in a barrel in terms of the sort of future returns available as all of the housing bubble starts to deflate violently. The outcome will be epic.

#78 saltpony on 12.20.15 at 4:57 pm

Hi Garth,
Love today’s video! The dogs are awesome!! and WOTE just rocks. Who knew they were dog lovers too?
xoxo

#79 Rook on 12.20.15 at 5:03 pm

I just caught myself reading the comment section of this blog and had to shake my head. What a waste of my time. There are a lot of sad people that come to spew their worship of the mighty dollar. It’s Sunday, go spend some time with your kids or something.

Wealthy people can spend Tuesday with their children. — Garth

#80 JimH on 12.20.15 at 5:04 pm

#3 Senta on 12.20.15 at 12:03 pm
Garth, Any ideas of how to make money from all this craziness? God knows you have done your best to save them. They won’t listen. Now we have figure out how to feed on their carcasses (a la, the big short).”
=====================================
Hey! Piker!
Don’t be such a cheap prick!

http://www.turnerinvestments.ca/

#81 Mark on 12.20.15 at 5:17 pm

“Rates are going up at the Banks. All eyes on the Bond Yield going forward.”

As another poster pointed out yesterday, “bond yields” haven’t gone anywhere. What you’re seeing is housing-debt related spreads expanding on account of lenders viewing housing as a riskier asset class to lend against. Perfectly rational in an environment of falling prices where there is increasingly significant risk that a loan, over its term, will no longer be fully collateralized.

As I wrote a week ago, the big theme for 2016 may not be so much that the ‘best offers’ at the banks interest-rate wise are significantly higher. But merely that increasingly few people actually qualify for such rates. The relationship of bankers to their mortgage customers is apt to become far more adversarial than in the past. No, you are not “richer than you think”.

#82 the Jaguar on 12.20.15 at 5:19 pm

Why do so many people doom their children this way?The most important ‘gift’ they can give their children is preparing them to stand on their own two feet. Handing them what they should be earning themselves ( the big downpayment) robs them of the lesson of saving it themselves. No doubt the parents will also sign on as co-signers or guarantors on the mortgage if the kids can’t qualify on their own. The fun starts when the kids rack up more debt buying all those expensive ‘homeowner’ related items and then begin to struggle with the house payments. Then the parents have to step in and co-sign the debt consolidation loan. Hopefully they still get along or the whole debacle of the messy divorce split and who owns what portion of the debt comes next. I suppose they are all just following the ‘herd’, afraid to be on the outside looking in. What they don’t realize is that being outside of things looking in is sometimes being in the catbird seat. If this all sounds a bit negative try to remember that for some of us we bear witness to it
day in and day out. Day in , day out. Day in, day out…

#83 Smudgekin on 12.20.15 at 5:36 pm

Actually quite dangerous out there one of the highest road fatality areas. Higher rate of parricides.

#84 Ulsterman on 12.20.15 at 5:38 pm

How is anyone shocked by the actions of the boomer parent? They’ve enjoyed 15+ years of almost uninterrupted house price gains. Housing has provided them with the forced-savings that they would never have had the self discipline or know-how to achieve and have paid-off or nearly paid homes.

It’s only normal for them to assume that this pattern will continue for their kids. Unless they help with a downpayment, they see their kids missing out on the ever-rising (their opinion) property ladder. If they don’t act they have the unpleasant vision of their kids being lifelong renters or condo owners. Yikes!

#85 For those about to flop... on 12.20.15 at 5:46 pm

#79 JimH on 12.20.15 at 5:04 pm
#3 Senta on 12.20.15 at 12:03 pm
Garth, Any ideas of how to make money from all this craziness? God knows you have done your best to save them. They won’t listen. Now we have figure out how to feed on their carcasses (a la, the big short).”
=====================================
Hey! Piker!
Don’t be such a cheap prick!

/////////////////////////////////
Ha! After yesterday’s choices I thought you were a refined gentleman ,then you give me this gem!

#86 My son in law got $1000 for... on 12.20.15 at 5:52 pm

Last spring my son-in-law was standing in a mattamy line in Waterdown just west of Milton. He was near the front and about 2pm he decided that he had had enough. He actually SOLD HIS PLACE IN LINE FOR $1000. He knew that many back out of their agreement within the first 48 hours as the law allows, so he phoned up the next day or so and obtained one of the houses. Now, he recognizes one of his neighbours as the guy who moved up in line and paid $1000! Truth is stranger than fiction!

#87 Aggregator on 12.20.15 at 5:53 pm

(Paywall) Canada’s Trudeau Cites Risk in Curbing Foreign Real-Estate Investment

"Imposing curbs on foreign investment in Canadian real estate could have unintended consequences for the broader economy, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau warned in a year-end interview with Canada’s Global Television Network"

No politician will touch this market. Especially now with banks' uninsured mortgage holdings set to overtake insured mortgages and, with government-backed insurance and guarantees standing a new record high of CAD$1.34 billion (yes they lied, taxpayer risk is greater then ever), equivalent to 76% of GDP.

There's only one way to postpone the inevitable: inflate the debt by debauching the loonie.

#88 Smudgekin on 12.20.15 at 5:58 pm

What do you expect Garth? Folks out that way look – well folksy and unsophisticated. Bit rough round the edges. Like they don’t visit hot water & bar soap often enough.

#89 Harbour on 12.20.15 at 6:01 pm

For years, the TSX and the TSX Venture, collaboratively known as the Toronto Stock Exchange, have ruled the Canadian public markets.

But over the last five years, what was once a thriving hub of capital and liquidity has become one of the worst performing major stock exchanges in the world – literally.

The top 20 of the biggest stock exchanges in the world including those in the U.S., London, Frankfurt, Europe, Tokyo, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Korea, Italy, Bombay, Switzerland, and even Australia, have outperformed the TSX.

But that’s not the worst part.

Over the past five years, all of the top 20 biggest stock exchanges in the world have performed extremely well – many reaching new highs; all except the TSX – the only one that is now lower than it was five years ago.

http://www.equedia.com/why-the-tsx-and-the-tsx-venture-are-about-to-change/?utm_source=December+20%2C+2015&utm_campaign=December+20%2C+2015&utm_medium=email

#90 Aggregator on 12.20.15 at 6:02 pm

#86

Sorry that’s CAD$1.34 trillion, not billion.

#91 Bram on 12.20.15 at 6:20 pm

#88 Harbour on 12.20.15 at 6:01 pm

all except the TSX – the only one that is now lower than it was five years ago.

Change your mindset: although nice, capital gains should not be your primary focus.

If you had picked your holdings on TSX such that they all yield nice dividends, then capital gains are not required. Just enjoy your dividend distributions and relax. Just hold them for the long run.

#92 Leo Trollstoy on 12.20.15 at 6:20 pm

I wish real estate prices would start to decline in Vancouver and Toronto. Everything has been increasing in price for more than a decade and some of the affluent enclaves around these cities have tripled in price over the last 9 years. This stupidity needs to end. Seriously.

#93 RayofLight on 12.20.15 at 6:24 pm

I have a disproportionate amount of my investments in US equities. This is because the growth companies I seek out are more likely to be in the US than Canada. I just believe there are only a few in Canada that are worth the potential opportunity cost lost by not investing in an American company. I have looked at my “fund” growth this year (in $CDNs), and realized about half has been due just to the falling Canadian dollar. In the long run, this is not a sustainable factor. Any increase in $CDNs due to currency exchange is really a false gain. So I have decide to re-evaluate how I calculate my Financial Net worth (FNW). I am trying to assess the net global purchasing power. To do this, I have discount all of the accounts to an After Tax amount ( guess for tax rates to remove from the RRSPs and Open accounts) and then convert the total to $US. This removes currency movements, and to me, is a more representative of a global purchasing power metric. Bottom Line, you’re poorer than you think.

#94 Nanaimo Bar on 12.20.15 at 6:25 pm

#80 Mark

“As I wrote a week ago, the big theme for 2016 may not be so much that the ‘best offers’ at the banks interest-rate wise are significantly higher. But merely that increasingly few people actually qualify for such rates. The relationship of bankers to their mortgage customers is apt to become far more adversarial than in the past. No, you are not “richer than you think”.

—————————————————————

Yes Mark. As I wrote last week, rising Bond yields will not be good for CAD going forward. I am USD long from 1.3350 and I am getting richer than I think. The hard part will be leaving USD and go back into CAD. What mess am I going back into?

#95 Love my Kia on 12.20.15 at 6:27 pm

You need Facebook. Lots of lovable puppies there.

Dogs trained to take groceries to the house,
https://www.facebook.com/EightNinetySeven/videos/10154405501473747/

#96 CentreWing on 12.20.15 at 6:30 pm

Does BC Guy regurgitate the same old tripe with every post??

#97 Welcome to the Karma Cafe on 12.20.15 at 6:34 pm

Where you get served what you deserve. Little Johnny never could walk to school let alone tie his own shoelaces . So when Mom and Dad have to back him to buy a house and defer or weaken their retirement finances, they will have no one else to blame but themselves when they are financially wiped out when the housing market goes down the tubes.

#98 Estrella on 12.20.15 at 6:48 pm

May the force be with us……?

#99 earthboundmisfit on 12.20.15 at 6:58 pm

I’ve been in many ….. Mattamy builds $hit.
Pssst …. pic is EB 403 in Mississauga. On a good day.

#100 BallsofSteel on 12.20.15 at 7:13 pm

Well I’m thinking Canada is so on the road to perdition you might as well become a apart of the United States of America Kingdom.
Just dig a canal from west of Quebec to Hudson Bay so as to chop of Garth’s Atlantic Coast haven and Obama’s your uncle.
Of course we on the western shores of the Pacific are not far behind you in the Great Countries Forever F*#@ed Stakes but at least Canukstan has an out.
Just sayin’

#101 nonplused on 12.20.15 at 7:13 pm

Walk off the earth is great.

#85, I didn’t know selling your place in line was Kosher. Seems like there is something of a breach of decorum by both the seller and the buyer with respect to the people behind him. Oh well we live in an age of greatly diminishing public decorum so I guess it happens. I blame snowboarders. Sure, they gave the ski hills a big boost in the 80’s and saved many of them, but when they first hit the hills they didn’t understand any of the rules including and especially yielding to the downhill skier/boarder and alternating in the maze, and they still don’t. So if you get run over, it’s likely by a boarder and now the hills have had to hire someone to stand in line with a big stick and sort out who goes next on busy days. Ever since then society has just gone to pot.

#102 stage1dave on 12.20.15 at 7:16 pm

#44 Crappy Pants;

If I remember that book by Mackay well; there is a further conclusion he stated that, if true; will foretell more depressing news for this latest round of RE craziness.

He theorized that “crowds” lose their minds immediately and act as single person; whereas the same crowd only recover it’s mind slowly, and one at a time…individually.

Guess it’s good to something to look forward to…

There’s some Christmas cheer for ya!

#103 nonplused on 12.20.15 at 7:18 pm

Alberta will be fine because Nutley’s cabinet has a plan. I believe it was the finance minister (and former school teacher?) who said all the unemployed Albertans can just move to BC to find work until the industry recovers. I don’t see anything wrong with that plan. Except that net migration is normally from BC to Alberta because there ain’t no work out there either and there hasn’t been for 20 years.

#104 Simplyput7 on 12.20.15 at 7:19 pm

No speculation on the secret finance ministers meeting held this evening? You must have some insights as to what the meeting is about Garth.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/finance+ministers+meet+ottawa+confront+canadas+economic+reality/11603104/story.html

#105 Daisy Mae on 12.20.15 at 7:23 pm

“They may also be sucking away their own financial security to do it.”

**********************

And so, the gap widens between middle income and the wealthy 1%….and we tell ourselves “the rich get richer and the poorer get poorer” and feel so hard done by. Duh!

#106 Daisy Mae on 12.20.15 at 7:36 pm

#60: “Real love is never letting the kids back in the basement. Real love is letting them fall on their face and get back up. Real love is letting them assume their decisions and pay for them as well…..”

***************

Well said.

#107 triplenet on 12.20.15 at 7:40 pm

#23 Ogopogo

Is there any vocation, profession or form of employment in Canada that is not scum – in your opinion?
How un-Canadian!!
Like I said to you before – get back under the dock you prehistoric lizard.

#108 Nanaimo Bar on 12.20.15 at 7:46 pm

# 103 simplyput7

Nice post. Last line in article gets a guy thinking.

“Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz is also scheduled to give a presentation to the group on the country’s monetary policy and the state of the world economy.”

The ministers were scheduled to hold a news conference Monday afternoon once the meetings wrap up.

To be a fly in that room.

#109 Smoking Man on 12.20.15 at 7:47 pm

I can’t stand the holiday’s, fake adult smiles, temporary pretend good will amongst men.

Family to me is people who share and encourage prosperity amongst and between them. Not necessarily blood tied.

Families that complete with each other, are not families at all. Even if blood tied.

Although my crystal ball is way better than Garth’s crystal ball. he still let’s me play in his house.

Family in a weird way is all I’m saying.

To my people on Nectonite who are celebrating tonight.

Happy гигантске кугле дан

#110 espressobob on 12.20.15 at 7:48 pm

#88 Harbour

Good point! The TSX composite has a weighting below 4% compared to a world index.

Why do investors chase performance in a myopic index?

#111 Trading Naked on 12.20.15 at 7:54 pm

I heard that all that traffic congestion is caused by construction workers commuting to build condos that may or may not sell in 5 years’ time. Employment, indeed.

#Exurban on 12.19.15 at 8:04 pm
#126 Frank

I’m working and commuting way more than I’d like in the Vancouver region. Here’s what I see on the ground. First, traffic on the roads is up in all areas and at all times.

#112 Daisy Mae on 12.20.15 at 7:56 pm

“….and young couples focus only on the monthly, not the pile of debt they’re walking into….”

****************

This is their mindset. They don’t EXPECT to pay off their mortgage.

#113 Smoking Man on 12.20.15 at 8:02 pm

HOW the hell did the L get into this word,
complete.

It totally screwed up my last post, should have been

compete.

My keyboard is posesed.

That post was worthy of a fridge magnet..

#114 TotalCrap on 12.20.15 at 8:03 pm

“Forty minutes by car (an hour and a half in the rush) west of downtown Toronto lie the vast suburbs of Milton and north Oakville. This is where young couples go who must have a home (average $600,000) and cannot afford to buy a detached place in 416 (average $1.1 million). For this they pay another price. Monolithic design. Zombie commute. Strained services. No trees. Homogeneity.”

What I state are the facts: if you don’t agree, then you are wrong. Period.

Toronto Latest unemployment rate = 7.1
Hamilton, Oakville, Milton Unemp Rate = 5.9

Age Stats of above H.O.M region:
Age distribution indicated 26.4% of the population was 19 and younger, 63.1% of the population ages 20–64 and 10.5% 65 and older

Why would young people who wish to call this nice area home – lots of trees, and water mains don’t burst every time someone in the neighborhood farts loudly, like Toronto – not try to find a job there too? Just asking.

This is just idle talk and fear mongering like usual. Nothing more.

#115 Ardy on 12.20.15 at 8:08 pm

I think we are reaching the realm where it is more dangerous to be a lender than a borrower.

Sure banks are doing great now, but during the US housing collapse, mortgage defaults hit 11%.

Good luck with that…….subprime lenders.

#116 Fine wild roasted gonads on 12.20.15 at 8:10 pm

#112 Smoking Man on 12.20.15 at 8:02 pm
HOW the hell did the L get into this word,
complete.

It totally screwed up my last post, should have been

compete.

My keyboard is posesed.

That post was worthy of a fridge magnet..
——
I sense a Facebook rant on the way!

#117 dontcallmeshirley on 12.20.15 at 8:20 pm

The average price of all types of housing should reach equilibrium at the CMHC insurance limit.

A lender has every incentive to lend right to that point, very little incentive to lend less.

The RE play has some room to go yet.

Downpayment restrictions and capital requirements have had zero impact in all countries in which the gov’t resorted to these weak measures.

#118 bigtowne on 12.20.15 at 8:23 pm

I hate to admit it but my offspring is more successful on every metric: physical; social; parenting; and able to roll with the punches like a marine or mercenary so God Forbid I screw up her life.

Where do parents come off imagining they can redo their kids life better than their kids? Is that why Canada is such a loser?

Also my grandkids are starting to show a little success so I refuse to trip anybody up but I will offer lots of encouragement. For Christmas I gave my grandson a CANADIAN TIRE card so he can buy a shovel for his snow removal business and the other boy I gave him a STARBUCKS card so he can be a barista when not in school. We have run our economy into the ground so now is a good time to let the kids improve the world.

#119 Darryl on 12.20.15 at 8:24 pm

#98 earthboundmisfit on 12.20.15 at 6:58 pm

I’ve been in many ….. Mattamy builds $hit.
Pssst …. pic is EB 403 in Mississauga. On a good day.
————————————————————–
Miltonites don’t use the 403 .

#120 waiting on the westcoast on 12.20.15 at 8:36 pm

First life lesson for escapee son…

No toilet paper… Needed to borrow from neighbour…

Hopefully pre-event!!! ;-)

#121 Smoking Man on 12.20.15 at 8:36 pm

#115 Fine wild roasted gonads on 12.20.15 at 8:10 pm
#112 Smoking Man on 12.20.15 at 8:02 pm
HOW the hell did the L get into this word,
complete.

It totally screwed up my last post, should have been

compete.

My keyboard is posesed.

That post was worthy of a fridge magnet..
——
I sense a Facebook rant on the way!
……

Can’t do that shit any more after losing my nephew.

Nothing has changed in my mind, but.

In his respect, a beautiful dude that loved his uncle Smokey . He was Inspired by this loon you see here. He bet a bit to much and fell of a mountain.

He loved his folks, and I’m not hurting them.

Ever.

No matter how fkd and superficial they still are.

God 1 , Smokey 0

I’ll have my day in court.

#122 TRT on 12.20.15 at 8:40 pm

Trudeau just said his government will not touch foreign investment in housing.

Buy now if you can into HAM areas in YVR and YYZ. Should make a cool $100,000 at least by August.

#123 will on 12.20.15 at 8:43 pm

#36 Leo Trollstoy:

“Don’t worry inflation is only 1%.”

Hahahahahahahahaha!

#124 acdel on 12.20.15 at 8:51 pm

We are no longer a country. We are 13 countries (excluding one that did not sign) in a large land mass being held together under the belief that the charter is the rule of the land and we are all better off because of it. Reading all these posts only confirms that we are or have not ever been united. We all laugh in disgust in other provinces short falls, hardships, and incompetence of the leadership. We no longer vote on who is the best candidate but on how we can get rid of the cancer who has ruled us in the past. In today’s climate it is all about me,me,me, why, the politician’s run the country this way, it is no longer about a long term goals, visions, dreams but how can I get elected in four years time. Anybody with half a brain on their shoulders know that this is not sustainable and is going to end badly. Perhaps as Canadian’s we should seriously think about each province (territories) the one’s who have the same mind set to move on, this so called very expensive unification (Ontario and Quebec 600 billion debt) is something we all need to consider!

#125 I am the Babbler on 12.20.15 at 8:53 pm

“This is what happens to a society when money’s so cheap it’s considered virtually free, and young couples focus only on the monthly, not the pile of debt they’re walking into. These folks often got a down payment gifted to them by the Bank of Mom, believe interest rates can never rise, and guys like me are geezer idiots.” Garth

——————————————————

Exactly right. And that’s why there won’t be a correction no matter the lack of fundamentals. You’ve been predicting a RE correction for years. So have I, but I have learned, or have come to believe, that there will be no significant correction because of the mentality you have described above.

#126 Crappy Pants McGee on 12.20.15 at 8:57 pm

“Take your millions to the grave and make your kids suffer until they hit 60.. Then they get all of it? Minus some taxes.. Or gift a bit to them now so they can start living.. And if that means reproducing in the suburbs then that’s their dumb fault.”

Wrong attitude. Move somewhere really nice, warm and tropical, become a bon vivant and send your kids and ex friends frequent post cards and photos of your newest hot wife to piss them off ( Canadians are so infected by the Tall Poppy Syndrome pend every freaking dime and die broke, then arrange with the local funeral parlour to send your kids the bill to ship your carcass home to burn…making the request they spread your ashes where you died, but don’t leave them a dime to get there.

Revenge is a dish best served cold.

#127 I am the Babbler on 12.20.15 at 8:59 pm

“Well, happily for Mattamy, few listen to me. Life, bumper-to-bumper on the 401, is just too sweet.” – Garth

———————————————————-

Yes, everything, including the price of RE, is now very distorted, but it’s not about to change. You continue to predict higher interest rates. No way. Nothing significant is coming. Three years from now rates will still be very low. If anything, negative rates are coming.

Delusional talk. No borrower will ever see negative rates. — Garth

#128 Bytor the Snow Dog on 12.20.15 at 9:03 pm

@ Daisy Mae-

#60: “Real love is never letting the kids back in the basement. Real love is letting them fall on their face and get back up. Real love is letting them assume their decisions and pay for them as well…..”

***************

Well said.

.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.–.-.-.-.-.-.-

Daisy Mae preaching the virtues of self sufficiency. Funny that.

#129 Mark on 12.20.15 at 9:10 pm

“The average price of all types of housing should reach equilibrium at the CMHC insurance limit. “

CMHC subprime mortgage insurance is finite — currently limited to $600B of subprime insurance at CMHC itself, and approximately $300-$350B of 90% re-insurance of 3rd parties such as Genworth and Canada Guaranty.

It was Flaherty putting the brakes on CMHC expansion and making it well known that there would be no further meaningful expansion of the CMHC’s subprime guarantee authority that marked the top of the Canadian housing bubble, in 2H 2013, corresponding to Budget 2013’s implementation.

Ever since, its been mostly downwards across all Canadian RE markets. The only ‘increases’ seen over the past few years being on account of the significantly shifting sales mix towards new and higher end properties constituting a larger fraction of transactional activity as the lower-end resale segment (traditional entry-level) becomes statistically far less prominent.

The limit represented the ceiling for Canadian RE. The CMHC per transaction limits are of minor effect.

“Exactly right. And that’s why there won’t be a correction no matter the lack of fundamentals.”

Famous last words…..

#130 Herb on 12.20.15 at 9:11 pm

Ryan,

your #42 has compensated for the personal BS and ideological hate speech one wades through here. Thank you.

#131 Winterpeg on 12.20.15 at 9:11 pm

#12 Retired Boomer WI on 12.20.15 at 12:37 pm

I own my own home. $600 a month roughly to turn the key and I OWN IT – no mortgage, that’s just the price to live in this place!

—————
IHCTD9; Yep, I own as well, figure pretty much about the same $600.00/ month, and I do 99% of the maintenance myself, and heat with wood pellets. It would be near a grand a month if I employed contractors and still used oil heat just to live mortgage free in my own bloody house!
———–
Ditto here in Winnipeg, for the cost of living in a home I own. Perhaps the same cost as renting. Mortgage is paid off, thankfully. Walk to work.(priceless) That said, am looking around still for cheap digs with covered parking. Nothing yet.
Looking forward in the new year to more rent vs owning discussions, across Canada

#132 genbizx on 12.20.15 at 9:15 pm

Currently rent a mattamy home…cheap, thin walled, creaky floored piece o dung. Looks good from afar but far from good. Windows are so drafty we cover them in clear plastic in winter just to be comfortable. Just a little over 5 years old and already showing signs that its not built to last. Slapped together, squeezed together and topped off with a small single drive (in a commuter neighbourhood)
Why would I “buy” this? Line up for this? Wow…we need a reset soon..

#133 Millmech on 12.20.15 at 9:17 pm

Remember the great transfer of wealth com Boomers to their offspring?Its happening right now except that the money flows straight to the bank,that’s why you always own the banks.The banks know this that’s why they’re signing off on all these financials usually knowing the parents are on the hook and will not renage on their financial obligations even if the children walk away.
Boomers would rather be homeless than have their offspring be perceived a failure,and will work until they drop rather than lose face.

#134 Smoking Man on 12.20.15 at 9:17 pm

My dad,

Beauty.

http://dyslexicsmokingman.blogspot.ca/2015/12/my-daddy.html

#135 I am the Babbler on 12.20.15 at 9:17 pm

“Delusional talk. No borrower will ever see negative rates.” — Garth

————————————————

True enough, but it seems quite probable that depositors will see negative rates and that can’t help but prop up investing. That includes RE investing. RE, at least in Toronto and Vancouver, is not going to correct. Unfortunately.

No depositor in Canada will ever see negative rates. — Garth

#136 Fine wild roasted gonads on 12.20.15 at 9:23 pm

#120 Smoking Man on 12.20.15 at 8:36 pm
#115 Fine wild roasted gonads on 12.20.15 at 8:10 pm
#112 Smoking Man on 12.20.15 at 8:02 pm
HOW the hell did the L get into this word,
complete.

It totally screwed up my last post, should have been

compete.

My keyboard is posesed.

That post was worthy of a fridge magnet..
——
I sense a Facebook rant on the way!
……

Can’t do that shit any more after losing my nephew.

Nothing has changed in my mind, but.

In his respect, a beautiful dude that loved his uncle Smokey . He was Inspired by this loon you see here. He bet a bit to much and fell of a mountain.

He loved his folks, and I’m not hurting them.

Ever.

No matter how fkd and superficial they still are.

God 1 , Smokey 0

I’ll have my day in court.
—–
The giant orbs will align in your favour.

#137 Min In Mission aka Geezer Idiot on 12.20.15 at 9:23 pm

#12 – same experience / same thoughts.

People now do not know what it is like to, all of a sudden, not have enough earnings to pay for their expenses. It is not a nice feeling.

#138 Vundo on 12.20.15 at 9:28 pm

#35 Slo: If I was in that position, I would ask my parents to cut the amount in half, give me $30k for TFSA/RRSP investments. This, much more so than a giant load of debt, would contribute to my long-term wellbeing. And isn’t that what such an offer would be about in the first place? If parents have the cash to help, why not use it to help kids pay off the student loans, or open a TFSA, or anything other than buy a house?

#139 Hope & Ruin on 12.20.15 at 9:29 pm

Why would anybody want to live in milton? That city represents everything that is bad about urban sprawl. The city without a soul. Just cookie cutter houses crammed together with big-box cookie cutter malls and congested highways. It’s not cheap either.

Typo in the first one if you want to delete one of them.

#140 westcdn on 12.20.15 at 9:36 pm

I am way behind on postings. My latest favorite diddy song is “Something in the Water”.
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=one+heart+beat+two+heads&view=detail&mid=BCA1A3A2DAB4F5D245D4BCA1A3A2DAB4F5D245D4&FORM=VIRE4
As for money, preferred shares are doing me fine. SM does blow my boat out the door but no guts, no glory…

#141 BS on 12.20.15 at 9:37 pm

TRT on 12.20.15 at 8:40 pm
Trudeau just said his government will not touch foreign investment in housing.

Buy now if you can into HAM areas in YVR and YYZ. Should make a cool $100,000 at least by August.

Hedge funds are betting on something different about to happen in YVR. It will be interesting to watch from the sidelines if amateur speculators get it right or the billion dollar hedge funds get it right.

U.S. short-seller says signs point to a real-estate ‘debacle’ in Metro Vancouver

Among measures meant to reduce risks the office said it could require banks in Vancouver and Toronto to retain more cash. The idea is that bank capital hasn’t kept pace with the relentless paper gains on the mortgages loaned. But if prices suddenly reverse banks will scramble to cover failed loans.

The result of increased capital requirements would be less money flowing into real estate. But banks will be less vulnerable to collapse and taxpayer-funded bailouts.

Cohodes believes Ottawa’s unstated intent is to remove “moral hazard” — meaning risky financial behaviour encouraged by easy money and government-backed mortgages — from Canadian housing.

“What all this means to me is Canada is putting the risk back in the market,” Cohodes said in an interview.

“But when you take the booze away after a 10-year party there will be a magnificent hangover. So I think 2016 will be a debacle. The speculators and money launderers will get burnt. But it will be good for younger people and the economy in the long-term.”

http://www.theprovince.com/will+2016+year+vancouver+housing+bubble+bursts/11603582/story.html

#142 Fine Wild Roasted Gonads on 12.20.15 at 9:39 pm

#133 Smoking Man on 12.20.15 at 9:17 pm

My dad,

Beauty.

http://dyslexicsmokingman.blogspot.ca/2015/12/my-daddy.html
—————–
Sweet. You got the genes!

#143 OXI in GREECE on 12.20.15 at 9:42 pm

#130 Winterpeg on 12.20.15 at 9:11 pm
#12 Retired Boomer WI on 12.20.15 at 12:37 pm

I own my own home. $600 a month roughly to turn the key and I OWN IT – no mortgage, that’s just the price to live in this place!

—————
IHCTD9; Yep, I own as well, figure pretty much about the same $600.00/ month, and I do 99% of the maintenance myself, and heat with wood pellets. It would be near a grand a month if I employed contractors and still used oil heat just to live mortgage free in my own bloody house!
———–
Ditto here in Winnipeg, for the cost of living in a home I own. Perhaps the same cost as renting. Mortgage is paid off, thankfully. Walk to work.(priceless) That said, am looking around still for cheap digs with covered parking. Nothing yet.
Looking forward in the new year to more rent vs owning discussions, across Canada
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Canada is fast becoming the most expensive country to live in – in the world. With no “free” healthcare, no “free” post secondary education, tolls, expensive gasoline, high taxes, poor infrastructure, large expensive inefficient pension up the butt public service, high cell costs, high internet costs, high food costs and the list goes on and on and on……

And before anyone says “yeah well you can leave then” – maybe the more professional comment should be – how did we the electorate allow this to happen?

#144 Mark on 12.20.15 at 9:43 pm

“No politician will touch this market. Especially now with banks’ uninsured mortgage holdings set to overtake insured mortgages and, with government-backed insurance and guarantees standing a new record high of CAD$1.34 billion (yes they lied, taxpayer risk is greater then ever), equivalent to 76% of GDP.”

Interesting link you have there with the chart showing insured mortgages $1.34T (not ‘billion’), but are you sure there’s not some double-counting? For instance, if a CMHC/Genworth/Canada Guarantee insured mortgage goes into a CMHC guaranteed MBS, such should only be counted once, not twice.

In the end, it probably doesn’t matter — the exposure of the Crown to mortgage debt is terrifying, whether you use ~$900B or ~$1.34T. But the discrepancy in the number quoted on the chart, and the more commonly quoted $600B CMHC limit and the ~$350B limit of 3rd party re-insurance is interesting to me nonetheless.

AFAIK, the statement that uninsured mortgages are overtaking insured isn’t accurate either. The entire Canadian mortgage market is ~$1.2-$1.4T, so if $900B of that is insured, uninsured can’t possibly be greater than insured. In any event, scary stuff.

#145 canadian oil on 12.20.15 at 9:43 pm

#29 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 12.20.15 at 1:54 pm

PAY ATTENTION…ON THE OTHER SIDE…

Lost much on the Canadian oil dream?

#146 OXI in GREECE on 12.20.15 at 9:47 pm

#121 TRT on 12.20.15 at 8:40 pm
Trudeau just said his government will not touch foreign investment in housing.

Buy now if you can into HAM areas in YVR and YYZ. Should make a cool $100,000 at least by August.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Govt changes but nothing changes……can’t wait for 3 months to go by with NO CHANGE in the billions of overseas wires and prices still going up in YVR. Can’t wait to see what the BS excuse is as to how there is no “foreign” influence even with the change in mortgage rules……

#147 Mark on 12.20.15 at 9:49 pm

“No depositor in Canada will ever see negative rates. — Garth”

Perhaps so explicitly, but fees for ‘safekeeping’ as trustees, not counterparties, in a NIRP environment, likely will create a negative effective rate. The infrastructure of money market funds was re-jigged accordingly in recent years such that the application of management fees to minimally yielding cash asset could result in negative returns (or so-called ‘breaking the buck’).

Some very interesting things do happen beneath zero though, which actually resemble the sort of behaviour more typical of hyperinflation — ie: a contraction in the real value of credit in the economy. This is why a precious metals allocation has historically performed well in not only strong inflation, but also in deflation. (but terribly in conditions of monetary stability!).

#148 Sheane Wallace on 12.20.15 at 9:54 pm

#19 BC Guy on 12.20.15 at 12:58 pm
The best way to cash in on this madness is to buy shares in Canada’s big banks.

Steady profits and share increases for 150 years and counting. Banks never lose

——

The best way to preserve your money is to move out of CAD and CAD nominated assets.

The best way to make money is to short them.

#149 Sheane Wallace on 12.20.15 at 9:56 pm

#145 Mark on 12.20.15 at 9:49 pm
“No depositor in Canada will ever see negative rates. — Garth

You mean nominal rates?

As real rates have been strongly negative for a while.

How about loonie crashing 30 % in 2 years and interest rates at zero?

#150 rosholt on 12.20.15 at 10:05 pm

Was at a Xmas dinner and a Surrey, BC Remax zombie was there. She was telling all that there’s no more land in Vancouver and real estate is the only investments that will always go up.

She was saying that 30-40 people are the norm for open houses in Surrey and that this was her best year ever. I think she has been in RE since mid 90’s.

I just had to bite my tongue the whole time because others were agreeing with her. One guy was telling her a story how someone knocked on a friend of his’ Vancouver door and offered him 3MM on the spot. He apparently took it but the Remax zombie was adamant that she would have got him $0.5MM more if he listed it on MLS.

Anyways, the takeaway from the dinner was the RE will never go down in the Vancouver area because there is no more land.

#151 Seriously on 12.20.15 at 10:10 pm

#91 Leo Trollstoy on 12.20.15 at 6:20 pm

I wish real estate prices would start to decline in Vancouver and Toronto. Everything has been increasing in price for more than a decade and some of the affluent enclaves around these cities have tripled in price over the last 9 years. This stupidity needs to end. Seriously.

====

What’s in it for you? Craving for Canadian rental units?

#152 Trading Naked on 12.20.15 at 10:12 pm

This has got to be the most defeatist thing I’ve read in a long time. That’s like saying, “well, if people don’t know how to eat healthy and exercise, they may as well enjoy their fries and die of heart disease.” Hint: there’s something called “learning” that is very open to us in our lucky first world.

Also, Garth: some people take perverse pride in real estate penury. That’s why we’re at where we’re at today. It’s the same as how my family genuinely believes that I am wrong to make money on my own terms. They tell me that I need to get better at office politicking so that I can get a job making LESS money.

#242 Buy or rent on 12.19.15 at 10:59 pm

In addition 90% of Canadians do not understand investing and getting returns of 5 to 7% a year.

#153 BS on 12.20.15 at 10:12 pm

Canada is fast becoming the most expensive country to live in – in the world. With no “free” healthcare, no “free” post secondary education, tolls, expensive gasoline, high taxes, poor infrastructure, large expensive inefficient pension up the butt public service, high cell costs, high internet costs, high food costs and the list goes on and on and on……

And before anyone says “yeah well you can leave then” – maybe the more professional comment should be – how did we the electorate allow this to happen?

Try traveling to a Scandinavian country if you want to know what expensive is.

There is no such thing as free healthcare, post secondary education, etc. It is just a matter of what percent is user pay and what percent is paid out of taxation. Either way you still pay. If you paid a 25% GST and 60% income tax and then had the tolls taken off the bridges and no tuition fees would that be better?

#154 famiy on 12.20.15 at 10:19 pm

#112 Smoking Man on 12.20.15 at 8:02 pm

HOW the hell did the L get into this word,
complete.

It totally screwed up my last post, should have been

compete.

My keyboard is posesed.

That post was worthy of a fridge magnet..

No worries… we figured… that’s what family is for…

#155 Leo Trollstoy on 12.20.15 at 10:33 pm

The best way to preserve your money is to move out of CAD and CAD nominated assets.

It’s been working for almost 4 years now.

#156 Nanaimo Bar on 12.20.15 at 10:35 pm

# 139 BS

“Hedge funds are betting on something different about to happen in YVR. It will be interesting to watch from the sidelines if amateur speculators get it right or the billion dollar hedge funds get it right.”
________________________________________________________________

I was thinking this very thought today. A smart vulture does not circle when they see the prey. That is a waste of energy. See Marc Cohodes. A smart vulture starts circling when the prey is injuried. See Paul Singer. – Argentina. It is not pretty.

#157 Entrepreneur on 12.20.15 at 11:01 pm

Took 2 days off work and so casually say so with no worries of money, must be nice. Wonder what kind of job he has?

#102 nonplused…their is no work in BC. Like you said for the last 20 years (I say for the last 40 years) BC looked to Alberta for jobs.

T2 must have talked to BC Liberal Christy Clark when all where in Paris #86 Aggregator. She must have informed him about not to interfere with the foreign investors which will drive the house prices down (similar, google it).

Recently went to an investment meeting and the head talker said foreign investors from China are buying in Vancouver without the bank (his words). They don’t need to borrow, strictly cash exchange. So ordinary Canadians are on their own with no protection from our leaders (of which I was taught that the government was to make sure that their citizens have the first right?????). I cannot believe our leaders talk that way.

#158 Love my Kia on 12.20.15 at 11:02 pm

108 Smoking Man on 12.20.15 at 7:47 pm

I can’t stand the holiday’s, fake adult smiles, temporary pretend good will amongst men.

Family to me is people who share and encourage prosperity amongst and between them. Not necessarily blood tied.

Families that complete with each other, are not families at all. Even if blood tied.
******************************
You’re dyslexic, so we get what you meant from the ‘l’. You are showing signs of serious inner wisdom tonight, like not the usual smart ass kind, but genuine thoughtfulness of others.

Will we all be judged someday? Probably. In the mean time there are lessons to be learned from them and even motivation to right those wrongs with others who are vulnerable to the same weaknesses.

Respect.

#159 Leo Trollstoy on 12.20.15 at 11:07 pm

I don’t think Canadians should be worried about their cost of living. We’ve been watching prices fall for everything across the board for a long time now.

Of course, we have been in a deflationary regime for the past decade or two…
http://forums.redflagdeals.com/merged-real-estate-crash-yes-no-maybe-905498/391/#post13251520

#160 Paul on 12.20.15 at 11:09 pm

Well Justin’s imagration minister just anouced Canada will be bring in 50,000 refugees.
That little prick can’t get his numbers straight on anything!

#161 45north on 12.20.15 at 11:19 pm

Forty minutes by car (an hour and a half in the rush) west of downtown Toronto lie the vast suburbs of Milton and north Oakville. This is where young couples go who must have a home (average $600,000)

this is political heartland. Not so much a geographical area as a sociological economic population which is the voting base.

I’m working on an idea: the political parties are about to abandon the heartland. mostly because the heartland doesn’t fall as a group but as individuals who more or less do everything they can to hide their fall. The concrete form of this abandonment will be a rise in interest rates.

#162 OttawaGuyRenting on 12.20.15 at 11:22 pm

Wealthy people can spend Tuesday with their children. — Garth
————-
Lucky enough at a young age to be surrounded by wealthy business people.
“Gary” out of Fla was an associate of mine.
Ice time for kids in Orlando was 4pm after school.

“Gary” – I am the only dad at the rink.

That stuck with me at 23 years old. $ = time

I am a contract consultant on salary. I manage my time.

I know what its worth and schedule according.

Writing on the wall amongst my peers – they don’t know what dividend or ETF is let aloe what they make a year.
LOC for vacations and fixing CC Debt.

Time.

It’s all you really really control

#163 Mark on 12.20.15 at 11:24 pm


How about loonie crashing 30 % in 2 years and interest rates at zero?

The loonie’s value has only declined approximately ~1.4% over the past year.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/cpis01a-eng.htm

Of course, we have been in a deflationary regime for the past decade or two…

True, especially if you look at bond yields which have been deflationary/disinflationary since the peak of the tech bubble circa ~2000. Consumer price growth has been relatively anemic since. Especially if you look today and see that commodity prices are basically back to early 2000s levels. Whomever you’re quoting on that internet forum must have had awfully incredibly good foresight into the economic conditions that beset us.

Hint: why don’t you look at what that guy said about Canadian banks and how great of investments they’d be. You’ll be pleasantly surprised.

#164 45north on 12.20.15 at 11:25 pm

Jaguar: If this all sounds a bit negative try to remember that for some of us we bear witness to it

that got my attention

BC Guy: Shame about Milton. Used to be a nice, rural, peaceful place, before getting swallowed up by the developers.

don’t you mean Ontario Guy?

#165 A Yank in BC on 12.20.15 at 11:39 pm

Why on God’s green Earth would anyone stand in line (much less camp-out overnight in the cold) to buy a house. The surest way to pay top-dollar for anything is to make it obvious to the would-be seller (in this case Mattamy) that you are desperate to buy. If I live to be a hundred years old, I will never understand this behavior.

#166 Bottoms_Up on 12.20.15 at 11:53 pm

I never understood the cookie-cutter subdivision. Godless, souless, treeless, like Garth says. Reminds me of the houses in Edward Scissorhands.

#167 Bottoms_Up on 12.21.15 at 12:00 am

Paying $4.50 for broccoli and $7.50 for cauliflower can’t be a good sign for the CAD.

#168 Bottoms_Up on 12.21.15 at 12:02 am

#141 OXI in GREECE on 12.20.15 at 9:42 pm
——————————-
Nothing is free, get a grip. Everything is paid for, somehow….

#169 Prairieboy43 on 12.21.15 at 12:08 am

Went partying with the Millenials this weekend. Had a great time. I am getting to old to be 25 again. Some are starting families, some are pairing off. Gizmo’s and Gadgets rule. All want adventure. There is no tomorrow. The kid from Cape Breton was quite a talker, and was having a great time. The Kaybeker was renting in trailer court for $250.00/month. Loving AB. Purchased himself and chevelle. Not planning on loosing $$. Another couple had there 3 month daughter at the party(she was a cutie, looked like her father), Just purchased a home. However they purchased close to work (10min.) and small house. No granite. There is hope For Millenials Have faith!
PB43

#170 Bottoms_Up on 12.21.15 at 12:13 am

#131 genbizx on 12.20.15 at 9:15 pm
————————————
I bought an 80s house. Post and iron beam. Solid, no creaks, no shifting. Great insulation. Many original windows that still do a great job in winter. Large driveway. 55ft lot. Wide street yet low traffic. Great parks. Neighbourhood has lots of 40-50 yr old trees. Paid about $100k less than what people are paying for new particle board houses on 35 ft lots with hockey stick trees in cramped neighbourhoods.

#171 young & foolish on 12.21.15 at 12:19 am

“This is what happens to a society when money’s so cheap it’s considered virtually free, and young couples focus only on the monthly, not the pile of debt they’re walking into”

Yes, free money and entitlement seem to go hand in hand these days. No wonder people are not saving. Let’s see how long it takes for central banks/governments to turn this tanker around without crashing into an iceberg.

#172 Mark on 12.21.15 at 12:31 am

“can’t wait for 3 months to go by with NO CHANGE in the billions of overseas wires and prices still going up in YVR. Can’t wait to see what the BS excuse is as to how there is no “foreign” influence even with the change in mortgage rules……”

You are aware that China takes the whole matter of sending large amounts of money overseas very seriously, right?

And most available evidence (except RE board propaganda) indicates that the RE markets have slowed down dramatically over the past few years as domestic credit expansion slows. Capital outflows are also known to be quite significant from Canada, suppressing the CAD$.

#173 young & foolish on 12.21.15 at 12:44 am

Who benefited most from zero rate policies? The smart money, of course. Yield chasers flooded into riskier markets/products everywhere inflating bubbles (the smart money was there first … ). Bubble finance has it’s advantages.

Thank you Mr. Greenspan.

#174 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.21.15 at 12:45 am

#78 Rook on 12.20.15 at 5:03 pm
I just caught myself reading the comment section of this blog and had to shake my head. What a waste of my time. There are a lot of sad people that come to spew their worship of the mighty dollar. It’s Sunday, go spend some time with your kids or something.

Wealthy people can spend Tuesday with their children. — Garth
————-
Wealthy parents will have their two nannies spend Tuesday with their children.

#175 Cici on 12.21.15 at 12:54 am

The one question that BMO didn’t (but should have) asked on that survey is how many boomers intend to take all of that debt that they’ve racked up–enabling their own and their entitled children’s outrageous needs–to the grave with them.

If I were the bank, that’s what I’d be worried about.

#176 april on 12.21.15 at 1:08 am

#148 – these people are all shysters and the dummies who believe them deserve what the get.

#177 Aggregator on 12.21.15 at 1:21 am

#142 Mark

The $900B you're referring to is insurance-in-force (IIF) only. $1.34T is with guarantees-in-force (GIF). It's correct. The difference is because GIF is a liability of the Government of Canada, but booked on CMHC's balance sheet as an agent. This gives CMHC the right to say it's not our liability, even though it is a quasi-crown corporation backed by the taxpayer.

The chart showing insured and uninsured mortgages is chartered banks' holdings only. There's even more loans if you count credit given to builders and developers and non-financial corporations.

They're just shuffling the debt and liabilities around so that it doesn't show up as a consolidated total. And all these idiot analysts and reporters keep talking about less taxpayer exposure when it's still growing to date.

This is why credit spreads go from no risk to a five alarm fire in no time.

#178 steerage steward on 12.21.15 at 1:23 am

If you ever doubt real estate is a mania in Canada, a social affliction, then remember those words.

This time it’s different

#179 Lea on 12.21.15 at 1:28 am

#149 Seriously

I think the overpriced real estate in Canada is going to cause a brain drain. If you are a professional who would rather not pay $1 million for a shack in Vancouver, you might be more likely to work south of the border.

When a market is out of equilibrium there are unintended consequences.

#180 RE Will Not Stall Due to Rates/Down Payment Increases on 12.21.15 at 2:56 am

Down payment increases or 2016/2017 forecast mortgage rate increases will not stall RE in YVR and 416. Payment rate increases will not add much to average mortgage payments that people cannot budget for. Down payment increases on the average house price are a pittance with free money.

And NOT EVERY ONE WILL BE RENEWING MORTGAGES AT THE SAME TIME. If true what many say here including Garth, then the above will take 5 years to filter into YVR/416 RE.

What will bring all of the house lust to a rapid and crashing halt is:

LARGE JOB LOSSES and/or a RECESSION.

That’s what crippled RE in all of the past burst bubbles and burst Alberta’s housing bubble in 2015.

Fear is a powerful thing.

No money coming in to pay that average $1400/month mortgage payment is even more powerful.

Not even the house of Mom and Dad can afford to subsidize Junior’s average $50 to $60 K/year income loss indefinitely…or theirs for that matter.

EI and Severance will not help…look at Alberta in 2015 – many posted earlier this year that EI/Severance will stall the bubble collapse…well did they?

The answer is NO.

People, eyes on GDP and Job Numbers next year.

The discussions here about personal debt, rate increases and/or down payment increases hurting YVR/416 RE are minutiae as are the bank of Mom and Dad and EI/Severance to the rescue.

#181 TRT on 12.21.15 at 3:11 am

Ugly. Going to get Ugly in Alberta.

Talked with a trucking executive who said the media is Being told not to put out the bad news for Alberta as it will spark a crisis.

Here’s what I know. Western Canadian Select is trading at $22/barrel and Bitumen is at $14/barrel. Trucking machinery TO Alberta has stopped.

Massive layoffs scheduled for January, so Oil companies can put pressure on gov. They will continue to pump out Oil.

Don’t know what T2 is thinking with importing massive amounts of people through immigration. He is going to have one hell of a fight with unemployed Albertans.

The guy was predicting a 50 cent Loonie as this would be a catastrophe for Alberta.

Sell and get out of housing in Alberta. Only areas safe are YVR and YYZ.

#182 LowRent of Arabia on 12.21.15 at 3:17 am

Someone offered me a larger villa with more space. (No extra fee because housing is provided.)

I turned down the offer because if I have a larger home, my wife will accumulate more crap to fill it.

Live small. Especially all these climate change wankers that want carbon taxes but fly to Paris to eat 5 star buffets.

A simple life is a happy life.

#183 The Other Chris on 12.21.15 at 5:05 am

Looks like Spain voted in a whole cohort of Podemos people last night, just as the country’s economy was getting back on its feet. (It had one of the highest growth rates in the Eurozone last year.)

There’s probably a lesson about Canada’s future in there. We might get a sensible party voted in once in a blue moon, then the populace will head right back to the big spenders next time around.

There’s no light at the end of the tunnel for the Canadian dollar… the feds will bail out Ontario when the stuff hits the fan, rather than see provincial civil servants face any cutbacks to their entitlements, and the dollar will continue to fall. If you’re holding any Canadian dollar denominated assets, you’ll be crushed in the long term. Feel pretty pessimistic this morning.

#184 neo on 12.21.15 at 7:17 am

Garth,

I know the site you are talking about. It is called HawthorneVillager.com. I don’t see this post anywhere. Are you referencing a different site?

While I totally agree about Mattamy and “new” Milton post the 2000 expansion being a slapped together into a monolithic atrocity. The old part of Milton surrounding their downtown core is the complete opposite of what you describe. There are Century old homes with huge lots with some trees that are 300 years old but most over 100 years old. They have character and many have undergone tastefully done restorations maintaining the character of the neighbourhood because it is enforced by the town. It is expensive to live there as many of the homes are close to or over a million dollars but they will hold their value over the long term much more than their new cookie cutter counterparts.

A few blocks of the old town have character, but there are hundreds of blocks of new housing that lack any. That’s where 90% of the population lives. Meanwhile the whole town is choked in minivans. Point? — Garth

#185 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.21.15 at 8:07 am

@#95 Centerwing
“Does BC Guy regurgitate the same old tripe with every post??”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Pretty much.

But its sort of amusing in a naive Trotsky Leninist, “take from the rich give to the poor” Robin Hood sort of way…..

One wonders if he won the $60 million lotto max and bought a 100,000 acre ranch how long it would take him to start building a fence to keep out the “rabble”.

#186 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.21.15 at 8:13 am

@#179 TRT
“Only areas safe are YVR and YYZ.”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
If you think that housing in YVR( Vancouver) is “safe” and “sustainable” your either delusional or you’ve lived at “Site” too long and huffed too many Ft. Mac bitumen fumes………..

#187 noel on 12.21.15 at 8:36 am

I’ve never understood the mentality of wanting to live hours away from where you work just to have more space.

Is people’s time worth so little to them that they’re willing to spend around 2 hours door-to-door each way every day to afford a house?

Anyone with a ~4 hour total daily commute willing to chime in?

#188 jess on 12.21.15 at 8:39 am

maker takers /HFT
Do the highest liquidity rebates obtain “best execution’ for customer limit orders?
http://www.sifma.org/members/hearings.aspx?id=8589949563

June 17 – Senate PSI Hearing on Conflicts of Interest, Investor Loss of Confidence, and High Speed Trading in U.S. Stock Markets

Rob Iati,The Real Story of Trading Software Espionage,
steal source /code change jump the queue?
http://advancedtrading.com/algorithms/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=218401501, July 10, 2009

https://www.bettermarkets.com/search/site/rebates%20maker%20taker%20rules
https://www.bettermarkets.com/sites/default/files/Testimony-%20Sen.%20Banking-%20Computerized%20Trading-%20%209-20-12.pdf\

#189 Calgary Banks & Foreclosures on 12.21.15 at 8:46 am

#6 Rich Young

In early 80s Calgary, BMO alone held over 3500 properties off the market to stabilize prices. Banks resisting foreclosures was already tried 35 years ago and here is what happened:

Calgary RE ate an average 40% price drop from 1981 to 1984.

2015 is just the first year of the bleeding…more to come that not even the MSM can remain mute about as they are now.

BTW, CMHCs Armageddon scenario from their Nov. 2015 stress tests:

Oil at $35 a barrel for a period of five years would trigger a 26 percent collapse in Canadian home prices and peak unemployment at 12%.

Give it a few more years…

#190 Yeah baby who luvs ya on 12.21.15 at 8:54 am

Meanwhile the whole town is choked in minivans. Point? — Garth
——
The horror! Where is a gnarly dude supposed to park his hummer. On top of them?

#191 Balmuto on 12.21.15 at 9:07 am

#161 Mark

“Of course, we have been in a deflationary regime for the past decade or two…

True, especially if you look at bond yields which have been deflationary/disinflationary since the peak of the tech bubble circa ~2000. Consumer price growth has been relatively anemic since.”

Deflation and disinflation aren’t the same thing. You really shouldn’t throw the word “deflation” around so casually.

Having said that, I agree that the bond market is pricing in a prolonged period of low inflation. When this will shift is anybody’s guess. Conventional wisdom was always that with a loose monetary policy you’d get a spike in inflation sooner or later but that hasn’t been the case. The bond market as a result has been increasingly unaffected by central bank policy and I expect this to continue into the Fed hiking cycle, i.e. the Treasury curve will simply flatten rather than move in tandem with short term rates. Treasuries look like a buy to me at these levels.

The Canada story is a little different as there is some cost-push inflation due to the weak loonie that has kept our inflation rates closer to target. However, with the weak economy there is a domestic safety bid for Canada government bonds that I think is suppressing yields at the moment. At some point though if our economy gets really bad and/or domestic inflation spikes due to the currency effect, I would expect to see Canada bonds sell off at least to the point where they trade at a positive spread to Treasuries rather than the negative spreads you’re seeing at the moment. That in turn could help form the basis of a recovery in the CAD, although without an accompanying rebound in commodity prices any such recovery would be muted.

#192 LP on 12.21.15 at 9:21 am

#185 noel on 12.21.15 at 8:36 am
I’ve never understood the mentality of wanting to live hours away from where you work just to have more space.

Is people’s time worth so little to them that they’re willing to spend around 2 hours door-to-door each way every day to afford a house?

Anyone with a ~4 hour total daily commute willing to chime in?
********************************
My husband commuted like that for almost 30 years with only a 6-year break mid-way when he worked closer to home. The last 3 months before retiring he worked near the intersection of University Ave and Wellington St in downtown Toronto while living in Elmira, a town southwest of Guelph Ontario – then the commute totaled closer to 5 hours daily.

For all of those years during which we lived in several rural communities in the south-west of the province (which we just loved and still do) he worked at jobs that he really enjoyed and which stretched him both personally and professionally. Sometimes he was able to take the GO-train but usually he needed his car (sometimes he had a business vehicle) during the day for trips to other company locations or to visit customers.

He always said that he loved his job and thought about and planned for the day ahead while getting to work in the morning but that the long drive home allowed him to work off the stress of that day before arriving home to his family.

The downside was those years when the vehicle expenses were ours to bear and not tax creditable. And, of course, the mileage accumulated made leasing prohibitive; he drove his cars “into the ground”.

Of course he’s glad those years are over but he has never expressed regret at “wasted hours” or anything else that is negative about his long commute. Yes, he was gone when our children got up in the morning but that is true of very many other people. In the evening we always ate a late dinner with the kids but they had already eaten their salad course earlier and had also completed their homework and other chores so the hours before bed were theirs to spend with daddy. We had our time alone together after the kids had gone to bed.

It worked for us.

#193 cramar on 12.21.15 at 9:27 am

After reading the comments of the Mattamy Milton house buyer, I can see that this pathetic blog’s title is bang on! Hopefully he will give an update five years from now on how this has worked out for him.

I can see the hottest career a few years from now. A recent law grad, just starting out, and canvassing Milton. Knocking on doors, and handing out business cards printed with, “Facing Financial Ruin? Call the best Bankruptcy Lawyer in the Business.”

#194 neo905 on 12.21.15 at 9:30 am

There has been about 12,000 homes built since 2000. The population of Milton is 100,000 so that would be around half the population *not* 90%.

Milton grew 56.5% between 2006 and 2015, and is the fastest-growing municipality in Canada. It is safe to say 90% of the residential land mass is new housing built over the last two decades. I know, as I was MP for the area. — Garth

#195 Bottoms_Up on 12.21.15 at 9:33 am

#185 noel on 12.21.15 at 8:36 am
———————–
As Garth alludes to, it can be like the equivalent of paying yourself $500,000 over your working career…plus people may feel suburbs are a safer place for their kids.

#196 Leo Trollstoy on 12.21.15 at 9:51 am

#189 Balmuto on 12.21.15 at 9:07 am

Well said.

#197 Popeye the sailor man on 12.21.15 at 10:31 am

http://calgaryherald.com/business/local-business/landlords-offering-more-incentives-as-vacancy-rates-continue-to-rise

I think:

Reluctant landlords likely to sell after a bad renter or two.

This will put even more housing on the market in Alberta.

#198 Doug in London on 12.21.15 at 10:42 am

What I don’t understand is why more people who bought a house years ago in Milton, Oakville, or anywhere else where prices have gone way up, aren’t selling and cashing in their winning lottery ticket. What I’m seeing now with housing in such markets reminds me of resource stocks last decade, tech stocks in 2000, or gold in 1980 and 2011.

#199 Daisy Mae on 12.21.15 at 10:54 am

#148 – “these people are all shysters and the dummies who believe them deserve what the get.”

********************

Nothing ever changes. Clichés same as always — “There’s a sucker born every minute” and “A fool and his money are soon parted”.

#200 Julia on 12.21.15 at 11:01 am

#111 Daisy Mae
“This is their mindset. They don’t EXPECT to pay off their mortgage.”

Yep. I have spoken to people that think that way. They upsize their house, get a new mortgage and restart the clock at 25 years to keep their payments the same. They can afford the payments, never taking a second look at the mortgage itself since they will never lose.

My parents didn’t give any of us money to buy a home. They paid for our education and let us live rent free in their house as long as we were full-time students. Once we were done it was either move out or pay market room and board. Once we all moved out, they sold the house, bought a small condo and now travel 3-4 months a year.
My parents came to to Canada with nothing, worked their b*tts off and are very successful. Paying for our education was their way of making it easier for us.

#201 Ken Nash on 12.21.15 at 11:15 am

I have many hopes and wishes for my life. My deepest wish is my kids outlive me and have peaceful and fulling lives. This doesn’t make me a unique parent. It’s sad anticipating, this natural human instinct, to nurture one’s children done so wrong. Caught in the clutches of naive real estate investment belief about to collide with reality.

#202 Delete mark on 12.21.15 at 11:28 am

Waste of time to scroll past his posts.

saying ‘RE has been going down in Vancouver over the past few years’ is the final straw. This guy is a troll.

#203 Gardus Demop on 12.21.15 at 11:34 am

The Trudeau/Poloz/Moroneau Plan for a Canada of the 1890’s is working…full steam ahead. The dollar has crashed leaving Canada’s businesses in the dark ages without the slightest ability to upgrade plant and machinery because of prohibitive forex cost.

Businesses poll overwhelmingly the the Liberal Government is bad for businesses going forward due to confusing new suggestions on regulation, new egregious taxation models and neophyte government hosting political and economic losses daily.

Herr Moroneau admits to know nothing about business as he inherited his millions from dear old dead daddy.

Jointly and severally they’ve imported hyperinflation from places like US, EU, Mexico and our food costs have soared insanely leaving children and seniors ( especially) starving and shivering in the dark.

The POLOZ PLan to Crush the Loon has been an abject juvenile fail as the competition has de-leveraged faster than Canada and stays well ahead on the competitive landscape. The punishment on Canada has been self inflicted and bears no result equal to bureaucratic sadism. Basically we’re experiencing all this pain for nothing. Foreign investment has fled leaving a bottomless pit for C$ to fall precipitously into and there’s free fall ahead, meaning grocery prices will continue to spike, Zimbabwe style.

The Liberal support of Green Blob ‘eco’ policies to shut down pipes and drills has turned to nothing but political fairy dust as the US has decided to export oil…leaving Canada tied up in court and unable to get any revenue from resources…nice going Trudeau. Thank your dumbo rock stars , rich TV presenters and the likes of Soros, Rockelfeeler, farrallon and Obama. Canada really fell for the scam, and we won’t see Obama building any schools or feeding starving seniors any time soon.

We’re sunk and sinkin fast.

#204 JimH on 12.21.15 at 11:39 am

SPY flirting with a major level of potential support ~200

If (and it’s a big “if”) it breaks down below this level and holds, we could see a test of the August and September lows.

The market is definitely trying to tell us something.

Hope you other traders are also listening to the language of the market!

#205 RyYYZ on 12.21.15 at 11:43 am

#137 Hope & Ruin

Why Milton? Well, while the new neighbourhoods may be quite sterile (and sad to see sitting on what was once prime agricultural land), Milton is right on the edge of area that aren’t (yet) devloped like that. Lots of conservation areas and pretty countryside just minutes away.

Personally I still think of Milton as the middle of nowhere, but I suppose one can probably find pretty much all of the shops and services one would want in the area, given the huge population growth of the last 10 years or so.

And it’s true, it’s not like everyone living in Milton works in Toronto. Many work in Mississauga, Oakville, Burlington, etc. I know quite a few people that I work with in Burlington who live in Milton.

Not me, I live in the Stoney Creek/Binbrook area, which is quickly starting to look like Milton, LOL.

#206 It's here on 12.21.15 at 11:46 am

Free rent in Calgary
http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com//news/canada/free-internet-and-visa-gift-cards-calgary-landlords-offering-more-incentives-as-vacancy-rates-rise

#207 tkid on 12.21.15 at 11:46 am

Anyone with a ~4 hour total daily commute willing to chime in?

I work from the office every other day, and that commute is approx. 5 hours round trip. I do the commute so I don’t have to afford a house closer to work. This also lets me keep a closer eye on my mother.

I do a 40 min drive to Burlington and then take the GO to downtown TO. I like the drive and sleep on the GO. It isn’t a big deal to me, it’s just something I have to do.

#208 Mike in Edm on 12.21.15 at 11:50 am

I was down in Calgary this past weekend for an annual Christmas party that some friends put on. The general mood from everyone is that they’re very grateful they have a job, construction (although still fairly busy) is going to get crushed in 6-12 months), and even the ppl that bought a year or 2 ago (ie peak pricing) realize and have accepted their house is worth less now, and will continue to decline. I was really surprised by that attitude. Thought for sure they’d be in the denial stage, but I guess when you’re surrounded by ppl being laid off, you come to terms pretty quick. Everyone also said downtown Calgary is epicenter – like a bomb went off. Mass destruction in the core (where all the big O&G players obviously are).

Had 1 old friend say they sold their rental property and actually sold their house as well and are planning on renting for a while, which really blew me away. Takes some massive cohones to convince the wife to do that in exchange for an almost certain financial windfall

#209 Renter's Revenge! on 12.21.15 at 12:16 pm

#58 Millmech on 12.20.15 at 3:36 pm
#16 Renters Revenge
Double that for both spouses working

Good point! I didn’t even consider that.

Another thing someone else pointed out that’s worth repeating is all those people putting their lives at risk on a daily basis on the 401 in the winter.

In such a large country, it makes no sense for everyone to clump together and do the same thing at the same time in the place. It’s no wonder they’re referred to as “sheeple”.

#210 pinstripe on 12.21.15 at 12:19 pm

The mood is getting nasty in Alberta. The rumor is that the opposition party is using whatever possible to stir the rednecks into doing anything.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/flea-market-shoppers-call-out-redneckish-decals-t-shirts-1.3374352

#211 BG on 12.21.15 at 12:24 pm

Oh I missed this post yesterday.

You express very well why I think savers are screwed.
It’s a stampede, and savers are trying to run in the opposite direction.
They’ll travel way faster running in the same direction as everyone else, but they there’s a risk of being one of those who’ll fall from the cliff.

#212 jaybee on 12.21.15 at 12:33 pm

#70 not 1st on 12.20.15 at 4:32 pm
Umm, sounds nice but what about the 15 ft of snow?

===============
last year we got pounded with snow. That is out of the ordinary.

#213 neo on 12.21.15 at 12:41 pm

#196 Doug in London

Cash in and move where?

#214 young & foolish on 12.21.15 at 12:50 pm

“We actually NEED a recession, to clear out the malinvestments and capital misallocations resulting from YEARS of cheap “money”.”

And what exactly are the “correct” capital allocations?

#215 Ogopogo on 12.21.15 at 12:54 pm

#106 triplenet

There are many noble professions. Sadly, realtor isn’t one of them.

Care to debate the main issue I raised?

#216 Shaggy Nomb on 12.21.15 at 1:03 pm

I’m seeing a lot of fancy pick ups with Alberta plates driving around in the lower mainland…how about you?

“It’s only when interest rates rise or more jobs are lost that the disease which makes people line up and suffer $40,000 price increases while they stand there, freezing, will be cured.”

See the point? We actually NEED a recession, to clear out the malinvestments and capital misallocations resulting from YEARS of cheap “money”.

Many, many people’s “jobs” resulted from, and are dependent on, that ZIRP malinvestment. They will be corrected.

**** Absa-freaking-lootley spot on Dude. The only beneficiaries out of the ZIRP has been the government who has used the ‘excuse’ to borrow zillions to increase spending on boondoggles and the raise wages and employment in the civil service. This is a disaster that will have to come to pass.

The Hyperinflation that POLOZ/Trudeau are importing will never raise wages fast enough ( due to the Trudeau Recession) to inflate the leverage out of the system. We are so screwed. Some one tell Justin that taking selfies is not managing an economy. he needs to quit, really soon.

#217 young & foolish on 12.21.15 at 1:09 pm

“In such a large country, it makes no sense for everyone to clump together and do the same thing at the same time in the place. It’s no wonder they’re referred to as “sheeple”.”

Um … people are social animals … bet against human nature, and lose.

#218 JimH on 12.21.15 at 1:09 pm

#208 Pinstripe

Like this?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/edmonton-mac-store-shooting-deaths-1.3373218

#219 The Other Chris on 12.21.15 at 1:16 pm

@200 Delete mark on 12.21.15 at 11:28 am

I think Mark’s ideas tend towards the extremely wonky, but I’d definitely be interested in having a beer with the guy. Strange perspectives are sometimes useful.

#220 dontcallmeshirley on 12.21.15 at 1:20 pm

#128 Mark,

“The limit represented the ceiling for Canadian RE. The CMHC per transaction limits are of minor effect.”

The constant churn of mortgages being paid down lets more transactions occur at the 1 million limit.

Try this thought exercise — what would it take for lenders to accept $1 million as the average price for condos?

#221 young & foolish on 12.21.15 at 1:20 pm

“What I don’t understand is why more people who bought a house years ago in Milton, Oakville, or anywhere else where prices have gone way up, aren’t selling and cashing in their winning lottery ticket. ”

Maybe, just maybe it’s because they bought a house as shelter, like a place to live? Not everybody sees their house as an “investment”.

#222 World Traveller on 12.21.15 at 1:27 pm

“The Last Resort”

She came from Providence,
the one in Rhode Island
Where the old world shadows hang
heavy in the air
She packed her hopes and dreams
like a refugee
Just as her father came across the sea

She heard about a place people were smilin’
They spoke about the red man’s way,
and how they loved the land
And they came from everywhere
to the Great Divide
Seeking a place to stand
or a place to hide

Down in the crowded bars,
out for a good time,
Can’t wait to tell you all,
what it’s like up there
And they called it paradise
I don’t know why
Somebody laid the mountains low
while the town got high

Then the chilly winds blew down
Across the desert
through the canyons of the coast, to
the Malibu
Where the pretty people play,
hungry for power
to light their neon way
and give them things to do

Some rich men came and raped the land,
Nobody caught ’em
Put up a bunch of ugly boxes, and Jesus,
people bought ’em
And they called it paradise
The place to be
They watched the hazy sun, sinking in the sea

You can leave it all behind
and sail to Lahaina
just like the missionaries did, so many years ago
They even brought a neon sign: “Jesus is coming”
Brought the white man’s burden down
Brought the white man’s reign

Who will provide the grand design?
What is yours and what is mine?
‘Cause there is no more new frontier
We have got to make it here

We satisfy our endless needs and
justify our bloody deeds,
in the name of destiny and the name
of God

And you can see them there,
On Sunday morning
They stand up and sing about
what it’s like up there
They call it paradise
I don’t know why
You call someplace paradise,
kiss it goodbye

#223 Sheane Wallace on 12.21.15 at 1:50 pm

#161 Mark on 12.20.15 at 11:24 pm


How about loonie crashing 30 % in 2 years and interest rates at zero?

The loonie’s value has only declined approximately ~1.4% over the past year.

——————

Sure. Against what? The Poloz’s imaginary CPI?
What I see is inflation between 4 and 10 %, in some cases as high as 20 + % (for shoes) on everything except gas.

#224 Ronaldo on 12.21.15 at 1:53 pm

#211 neo on 12.21.15 at 12:41 pm
#196 Doug in London

”Cash in and move where?”

Lillooet…

#225 Sheane Wallace on 12.21.15 at 1:53 pm

#219 young & foolish on 12.21.15 at 1:20 pm

“What I don’t understand is why more people who bought a house years ago in Milton, Oakville, or anywhere else where prices have gone way up, aren’t selling and cashing in their winning lottery ticket. ”

Maybe, just maybe it’s because they bought a house as shelter, like a place to live? Not everybody sees their house as an “investment”.
————————–

Harper said housing is the most important asset and investment for Canadians. They want you to think it is an investment. Anyone paying millions (that he/she does not have) for a shelter is certifiably insane.

#226 Ronaldo on 12.21.15 at 1:57 pm

Today’s headline in The Province newspaper.

http://www.theprovince.com/business/Will+2016+year+Vancouver+housing+bubble+bursts/11603582/story.html

#227 young & foolish on 12.21.15 at 2:01 pm

“We are so screwed” A persistent meme on this blog.

Take a look around the world blog dogs … and count your blessings. How does a site dedicated to embracing financial balance turn to this thinly masked self loathing?

Get a puppy. He’ll love despite the loathing thing. — Garth

#228 Mark on 12.21.15 at 2:07 pm

“Try this thought exercise — what would it take for lenders to accept $1 million as the average price for condos?”

Not really sure where you’re going with this, or what you’re asking. “Lenders” in Canada really don’t accept (or deny) anything — they merely adjudicate loan applications on whether or not they meet the CMHC criteria, and send them for confirmation of the same. CMHC itself relies heavily upon statistical measures, not actual appraisals. CMHC’s model itself is obviously proprietary, but if CMHC’s “modus operandi” is replicated in the appraisal/verification aspect of its business, its appraisal system is likely significantly weighted to Realtor-supplied “headline” numbers rather than a statistical matrix that reflects the actual sales mix of the region in question.

Not really sure if this answers your question, or feeds into the argument you’re trying to make.

I think the way that the banks/lenders would ‘game’ CMHC insurance would be to ensure that CMHC’s guarantee authority would be utilized for the most marginal pool of loans possible. The lenders almost certainly have reasonably sophisticated models of both long-term housing valuations, as well as knowledge of the stability of certain income sources (ie: certain professions) against which to judge the riskiness inherent in a loan. And either retain it uninsured, or send it off to the CMHC for insurance. A “$1M condo” penthouse atop a high quality Toronto tower probably is far less risk to a bank than, for instance, a $500k condo unit in Grande Prairie, Alberta.

#229 Mark on 12.21.15 at 2:26 pm

“Sure. Against what? The Poloz’s imaginary CPI?
What I see is inflation between 4 and 10 %, in some cases as high as 20 + % (for shoes) on everything except gas.”

First, Poloz (or the BoC) doesn’t calculate CPI — StatsCan does. Second, StatsCan’s credibility is beyond reproach on these matters. Third, the Canadian bond market would have completely freaked out by now if your claims of inflation being as high as you claim had any reasonable level of validity.

I agree with the other poster in his assessment that if inflation starts to appear, than the bond market will sell off. But that Canadian bonds are being bid on account of both a fear trade, as well as a belief amongst bond owners that there will be substantial future upside in the CAD$.

#230 Toronto Comutter on 12.21.15 at 2:37 pm

Has anyone noticed the price of food lately? With the falling dollar produce is ridiculous. They even posted warnings in Loblaws due to Supply Chain issues? Paid $4 for a head of lettuce sourced from Spain?

#231 JamesA on 12.21.15 at 2:38 pm

Interesting:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-21/economist-the-canadian-dollar-s-demise-couldn-t-have-happened-at-a-worse-time-

we don’t manufacture much so we can’t do “import substitution” to replace US made goods locally.

I guess if your in a service business with US and UK customers, you might be doing ok (my standard for ok at the moment is pretty low (like not broke, unemployed and homeless)).

#232 Retired Boomer WI on 12.21.15 at 2:57 pm

#225 Young & Foolish

IF you think the meme here is “we are so screwed”….
you are wrong!

I’ll not deny that some undoubtedly ARE screwed!

I have no idea if that is a recent 1 time “screwing” like losing one’s job in the Oil Patch, having to vacate a rental, and moving back to wherever.

It might be an “on going screwing” from one too many move-up homes the Boomer now quietly contemplates retirement-but has 12 years left on the mortgage. OK let’s say it’s merely 5 years left, but the number is rather large. OK, let’s even assume the home is paid off, but he has little saved, (under $50,000) and the car just died.

All of these scenarios involve mere personal choices, and no adverse health items, catastrophic incidents that CAN and DO happen to us all the dam time.

I would like to think a home if it’s going to be that costly, just isn’t worth the price of ownership.

Someday you might come to see the value of that view, too.

#233 Freedom First on 12.21.15 at 3:06 pm

I have never had to commute more than 15 minutes to work. And for over a decade, working out of my home, my commute is 0. Mind you, it is easy to do when you live alone and can do anything to avoid such a mind boggling terrible time wasting and life shortening torture as a long and very very expensive commute. Insanity.

#234 Mark on 12.21.15 at 3:08 pm

“we don’t manufacture much so we can’t do “import substitution” to replace US made goods locally. “

Let’s see. Canada is self-sufficient for grains, meat, eggs, milk, energy (of all kinds), housing components, financial services, aircraft, and motor vehicles. These items cumulatively make up the majority of the consumption baskets of Canadians.

And when Canadians are given the proper incentives (ie: a low CAD$ or a high CAD$), the tourism trade deficit has closed (or alternatively, expanded) significantly in the past:

http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a46?lang=eng&childId=3870005&CORId=3764&viewId=2

So basically we’re left with only a relatively small chunk of Canadian consumption which is imported. And an even smaller chunk which is directly imported from the United States (this is important since the CAD$ hasn’t declined as significantly against the other currencies). With the exception of the fresh produce, most imported items are relatively discretionary. That is among the reasons why we haven’t seen inflation appearing in Canada.

Contrast this with the USA, which runs deep long-term trade deficits across most product categories except for food.

#235 Sheane Wallace on 12.21.15 at 3:14 pm

First, Poloz (or the BoC) doesn’t calculate CPI — StatsCan does.

This is irrelevant, they are both incorrect

————————–
Second, StatsCan’s credibility is beyond reproach on these matters.

The measure ‘core inflation’. Using hedonics and substitution. Official food inflation is over 4 %. Real food inflation is 10 % +.
Everything imported costs 15 % + more.

————————-
Third, the Canadian bond market would have completely freaked out by now if your claims of inflation being as high as you claim had any reasonable level of validity.

Who do you think buys our bonds? Institutions e.g. private and public pension funds who are mandated by law to purchase ‘safe’ (in reality ‘return free risk’) government paper.

If you believe that private investor would buy these, you are delusional.

#236 noel on 12.21.15 at 3:15 pm

#228 Toronto Comutter

Loblaws is always overpriced. There’s always much better prices at local fruit and veggie stands if you’re lucky to live in a neighbourhood that has them, or there’s no frills, costco (is making fun of costco still a thing around here?), metro, bulk barn.

Haven’t witnessed much inflation in the lower end, local or bulk stores myself.

#237 Sheane Wallace on 12.21.15 at 3:23 pm

#232 Mark on 12.21.15 at 3:08 pm

“we don’t manufacture much so we can’t do “import substitution” to replace US made goods locally. “

Let’s see. Canada is self-sufficient for grains, meat, eggs, milk, energy (of all kinds), housing components, financial services, aircraft, and motor vehicles. These items cumulatively make up the majority of the consumption baskets of Canadians.
————————
You missed the toilet paper!

US produces the world reserve currency. This requires to maintain deficit.

Most of the food I buy is not produced in Canada. Neither are my cars, my clothes, my shoes. Or my phone, computer or whatever electronic devices I have.

In fact, most of the organic food at the grocery stores is not produced in Canada but rather in US and Mexico.

Almost nothing at the department stores is made in Canada.

The airplanes I flew on to Europe twice this summer where not Canadian.

I don’t drink Canadian alcohol.

But I do use the toilet paper!
That can explain clearly the latest ‘growth’ of GDP.

#238 eddy on 12.21.15 at 3:26 pm

Milton and oakville are good places to buy. Thays because the former Premier of Ontario was the greatest Premier that Ontario ducks and geese ever had. Consequenty the sheeple must pay

#239 Yeah baby who luvs ya on 12.21.15 at 3:26 pm

#232 Mark on 12.21.15 at 3:08 pm

“we don’t manufacture much so we can’t do “import substitution” to replace US made goods locally. “

Let’s see. Canada is self-sufficient for grains, meat, eggs, milk, energy (of all kinds), housing components, financial services, aircraft, and motor vehicles.–
——————-
“Self – sufficient in aircraft” ………………… – good lord spare us!!

“And when Canadians are given the proper incentives (ie: a low CAD$ or a high CAD$), ” – well which is it dude!

Troll-dude were you sent from some parallel universe to torture readers of this fine blog til the end of time. .. not a day goes by you don’t spew a whooper… usually several a day given your endless drivel

#240 Trading Naked on 12.21.15 at 3:33 pm

#225 young & foolish on 12.21.15 at 2:01 pm

I thought the meme in the comments section of this blog was “average Canadians are so screwed; now let’s pat ourselves on the back for avoiding their fate”.

#241 For those about to flop... on 12.21.15 at 3:44 pm

Hey Tony,I am a little puzzled.How come Obama was missing from the Democrat debate?
Maybe because it was on at the same time as his tee- time or maybe because he has served 2 terms.
I’m going with the golf tee-time!

#242 Doug in London on 12.21.15 at 4:00 pm

@neo, post #211:
You don’t get out much, do you? If you stay put where you cashed in your WINNING lottery ticket, you can do a little, much less understood, thing called renting. If you decide to move, look at a map of Canada. It’s a big place, the second largest country in the world, only surpassed by Russia. believe it or not, there are many places to live outside the GTA. Have a look at a map of Canada, and if you don’t have one look at Google Earth. Have you ever heard of places in Ontario like Sarnia? In BC, you could always follow Ronaldo’s advice (post #222) and move to Lillooet but, believe it or not, Lillooet is not the only option for places to live.

@young&foolish:
I didn’t buy a car, bicycle, electronic equipment, tools, or anything else I own (outside of my investment accounts) as an investment either, but if someone offered me an absurdly high price, much higher than I paid for any of them, they would be GONE so fast I would prove Mr. Einstein wrong by moving faster than the speed of light to sell any of those items. Similarly, if I buy a stock, REIT, or ETF and it has a big run up in price I’ll sell off some or all of it. The same goes for a house. There have NEVER been such easy pickings as now for making such a BIG fortune TAX FREE! I know I would. It would be like a reflex action, such as pulling my hand away quickly if I accidentally touch a hot object.

#243 Mark on 12.21.15 at 4:12 pm

““Self – sufficient in aircraft” ………………… – good lord spare us!! “

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/trad45a-eng.htm

Review the tables. You’ll see I am correct. Canada actually runs a slight trade surplus on “Aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts”.

“And when Canadians are given the proper incentives (ie: a low CAD$ or a high CAD$), ” – well which is it dude!

Extremities either accentuate or attenuate Canada’s trade deficit in travel.

not a day goes by you don’t spew a whooper… usually several a day given your endless drivel

Only problem is, I can back nearly everything I say up with facts. See above.

#244 For those about to flop... on 12.21.15 at 4:15 pm

#217 The Other Chris on 12.21.15 at 1:16 pm
@200 Delete mark on 12.21.15 at 11:28 am

I think Mark’s ideas tend towards the extremely wonky, but I’d definitely be interested in having a beer with the guy. Strange perspectives are sometimes useful.

///////////////////////////////////////
If I was forced to have a beer with Mark I would
drink it as quickly as possible and put peanuts from the bar in my ear holes!

#245 Mark on 12.21.15 at 4:20 pm

“Most of the food I buy is not produced in Canada. Neither are my cars, my clothes, my shoes. Or my phone, computer or whatever electronic devices I have.”

You don’t eat meat? You don’t eat breads or other wheat products? These two categories of food alone represent a significant chunk of the Canadian consumption basket.

If you believe that private investor would buy these, you are delusional.

Most private investors have at least some bond allocation in their portfolio. Lots of people in Canada have all-bond portfolios (ie: GICs), often against their better judgement. (Garth often reminds us that 80%+ of TFSA’s are entirely in Canadian fixed income!). To say that private investors do not participate in the marketplace for Canadian bonds and debt instruments which derive their pricing from bonds is so absurd it defies credibility or even common sense.

#246 Mark on 12.21.15 at 4:25 pm

“The airplanes I flew on to Europe twice this summer where not Canadian. “

I am 99% sure that the lending gear of the planes you flew on were made in Canada, made/designed in the GTA at Messier-Dowty-Bugatti. You’d be surprised at just how much manufacturing is in Canada, despite its severe downsizing over the past decade or two (with the greatest prominence, of course, being in the telecom equipment sector, aka Nortel).

The truly sad thing is that the housing market has diverted so much capital away from high value manufacturers, and towards housing. Perhaps with the housing bubble unwinding, manufacturers will be able to greater access the capital they need to grow in the future.

#247 jess on 12.21.15 at 4:32 pm

Accountant sentenced to eight years in jail for devising and promoting tax fraud schemes based on film industry loopholes

20 December 2015 5:53pm

by Hayley Kirton

“Jennie Granger, director general of enforcement and compliance at HMRC, said: “This was pure greed by a dishonest tax agent, a financial adviser, and people who were already wealthy individuals. Those found guilty had no interest in the film industry, or regard for the impact on honest taxpayers.”
http://www.cityam.com/231220/accountant-sentenced-to-eight-years-in-jail-for-devising-and-promoting-tax-fraud-schemes-based-on-film-industry-loopholes

#248 Russ on 12.21.15 at 4:41 pm

nonplused on 12.20.15 at 7:18 pm

Alberta will be fine because Nutley’s cabinet has a plan. I believe it was the finance minister (and former school teacher?) who said all the unemployed Albertans can just move to BC to find work until the industry recovers. I don’t see anything wrong with that plan. Except that net migration is normally from BC to Alberta because there ain’t no work out there either and there hasn’t been for 20 years.
====================

You have a good point.

We’ve heard that some younger natives from the Snuneemucks reserve have moved to Alberta because there is no work available…

#249 Leo Trollstoy on 12.21.15 at 4:48 pm

Mark is getting out of his depth again and has resorted to fabrication. Haha. I love it.

#250 Sheane Wallace on 12.21.15 at 4:51 pm

The truly sad thing is that the housing market has diverted so much capital away from high value manufacturers, and towards housing

Exactly. those skills are gone baby. Forever.
————————

Sad for Nortel, RIM, Bombardier…

Great for glass condos, wooden particles homes that can’t handle clay/terra cota/ceramic tiles?

#251 Julia on 12.21.15 at 4:56 pm

#234 Noel
“#228 Toronto Comutter
Loblaws is always overpriced. There’s always much better prices at local fruit and veggie stands if you’re lucky to live in a neighbourhood that has them, or there’s no frills, costco (is making fun of costco still a thing around here?), metro, bulk barn.

Haven’t witnessed much inflation in the lower end, local or bulk stores myself”

We noticed an increase, having to up our grocery budget continually increasing and our consumption habits have not changed. We flyer shop before going out as we have the availability and choice of the major chains and independents nearby.
Loblaws is a “high/low” retailer (as is Canadian Tire) vs Walmart and Costco that are everyday low. Just different pricing strategies.

#252 NickTheGreek on 12.21.15 at 4:59 pm

GARTH

I live in the north part of Oakville that you mentioned and looking to move out!!!

What nobody has mentioned yet is that these subdivisions are built around the worst possible land…Next to SEVEN 15 storey transmission towers (east of Sixth Line and Dundas street)and countless massive cell phone towers. Hence the devalued land for the builders. Many of these places are listed as rentals that have been sitting for a very long time.

#253 Yeah baby who luvs ya on 12.21.15 at 5:03 pm

#241 Mark on 12.21.15 at 4:12 pm

““Self – sufficient in aircraft” ………………… – good lord spare us!! “

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/trad45a-eng.htm

Review the tables. You’ll see I am correct. Canada actually runs a slight trade surplus on “Aircraft and other transportation equipment and parts”.
—-
Making parts – which is great – and being self-sufficient in aircraft is not even slightly the same thing.

“And when Canadians are given the proper incentives (ie: a low CAD$ or a high CAD$), ” – well which is it dude!

Extremities either accentuate or attenuate Canada’s trade deficit in travel.

—————-
Dude ya gotta pick.. oh right you picked CAD was going up, up and way .. until well it didn’t…

Why am I arguing with a troll?!

#254 NickTheGreek on 12.21.15 at 5:06 pm

Typo in my previous post. Should have said…

Next to SEVEN 15 storey transmission towers (east of THIRD Line and Dundas street)and countless massive cell phone towers.

BTW, how did you hear about this area??? :)

#255 Giggle on 12.21.15 at 5:36 pm

Fresh off the plane immigrant bought in milton village MataMe particle [email protected] 480k a year ago.It is 600k now.The wheels of auto industry works well here with uscad gear ratio of 1:1.4 to support the above –so far.

Does he know it’s a gain only if he sells? — Garth

#256 liquidincalgary on 12.22.15 at 4:43 am

VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 12.20.15 at 1:54 pm

PAY ATTENTION…ON THE OTHER SIDE…

…of the Pacific Ocean, thousands of miles from us ever-so environmentally-“concerned” Vancouver Islanders, is a new development which should be noticed by the rest of us:

–completion of the biggest Chinese-built deep sea oil drilling platform, so far.

===============================================

china announced a decade ago that they wanted to have their own spr’s :

http://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1037&context=curej

try to keep up

#257 Big Dipper on 12.22.15 at 12:25 pm

My expectations for CREB acting ethically is minimal. After all, that town re-elected Harper and has an unusual number of brain damaged WR supporters.

I completely agree that CREB’s DOM, and percentage of asking price (not available from their public site), are baloney. However, I have difficulty seeing how their year to year comparison of monthly sale prices are manipulated. Are the minor median and average reductions a lie, or is there some other slight of hand we do not know about?

Alternatively, maybe the Calgary house prices are still sticky and there needs to be more unsold inventory, for a longer time, before we see significant price movement.