All you need

CUPCAKES modified

Alana’s twenty-five. The BF is four years older. “We are young,” she says, “in love.” Let’s start today’s post with some happy words (to counter what comes later). Here they are, from a moist Millennial who gets it…

“We live in a basement apartment with our two furbabies paying about $1000 all in. I work for a large financial institution and my boyfriend works for a big insurance company.  Our combined gross income is about $86,000/year.   Most people think or even say: “Ew, why do you live in a basement apartment”… Well this is why…

“Although we’re young, the one thing we’ve noticed is that people our age are idiots.  Living in the now and with the mentality that you only live once. This means spending all of your money on useless shit, keeping up with a certain image of being “successful”, buying/renting something you can’t afford, and saving no money.

“Not us though… we’re trying to do the opposite of what everyone else is doing.  We’re living below our means so that we can save more money.  As of now buying a house is out of the question for us for a while… which is no big deal. We want to get married sometime soon and eventually have babies of the human kind.. but at the same time while we do these things we also want to be financially responsible. Thank you for helping us.”

Mouldy but happy virginal basement dwellers. And here I thought absolutely nobody’s been listening to me. Perhaps after this week, that might change.

As you know, US rates finally have started their ascent. There will be two to four additional increases in 2016. Some Canadian banks have already adjusted their mortgage rates higher. More to come. The dollar crashed to an 11-year low, now at 71 cents. Oil tanked, too. At $34 a barrel it’s the cheapest in six years and a buck ninety off the crisis level of 2009. Alberta’s credit rating was downgraded. And the country’s chief bank cop, regulator Jeremy Rudin, had this to say after we lost another 36,000 jobs:

“The most severe scenario for housing would be a severe disruption to employment, which then interrupts the ability of borrowers to stay current on their mortgages, combined with a resulting decline in the value of the collateral. The more severe that decline is in prices, the more severe the scenario will be.”

Whether Alana knows the facts, or just feels it in her young guts, risk has taken a long step forward. It’s a fine time to stay underground with a bunch of warm fur.

We all must face facts. Canada’s overall economy has become unwisely dependent on household consumption and real estate. Because income gains have been shallow or non-existent, debt’s exploded higher. Now at a record. Off the charts, actually. People have more debt-servicing costs today than thirty years ago when rates were 20%. So you can tell why this will move from a mess to a morass.

This happened – along with all the house-lust, the HGTV culture, the YVR disbelief and the letters I publish from morons – because rates have been too low for too long. The Yanks get this, and have started to pull out danger. Not us.

“Recent momentum in prices in Toronto and Vancouver may increase the likelihood of a correction in house prices, which could affect vulnerable households,” Bank of Canada boss Stephen Poloz said a few days ago. But there still exists the possibility he will cut rates again next year, even as the US continues to hike. That will further trash the buck and encourage bad behaviour. But the oil collapse has changed everything, and turned bad policy into the only policy.

The scariest part: most Canadians are completely unprepared for the inevitability of higher mortgages and the impact this will have on their one-asset strategy.

“While we can envisage additional Bank of Canada rate cuts to support a flagging economy next year, especially if oil prices fall further, that doesn’t mean that bond yields won’t rise,” says economist David Madani. “Although markets shrugged off last week’s historic US Fed lift-off, we anticipate a faster progression of rate increases over the next two years, with US Treasury and Government of Canada bond yields trending higher. Under these circumstances, we would expect household borrowing costs to rise. Unfortunately, even small increases may prove devastating to many households with excessive debt loads.”

But is the message getting through?

If the comments from this blog’s steerage section are any guide, forget it. Residents of the Republic of 416 and the Kingdom of YVR fully believe they’re immune. What they fail to understand is that with 70% of real estate markets stagnating or declining, and the banks’ massive exposure to energy, housing and Alberta – plus Ottawa’s growing horror at what’s coming – credit conditions could change fast. For everybody.

Hell, even some media people get it. This is from the current issue of Maclean’s:

“…thousands of Canadians could be in store for some financial pain. The individuals in this group mostly are under 45 years of age, and their houses represent 90 per cent of the value of their assets. They are also relatively poor and uneducated. The increase from a decade ago was led by debtors whose highest education was high school, suggesting they could struggle to find decent jobs in a weaker economy. Their newly purchased homes could become a tether that prevents them moving for work, if the value of the real estate drops below the cost of the mortgage.”

If you bought a house this year, good luck. Hope you paid cash, plan to stay for a long time and don’t get it appraised for a decade.

If you’re young and in love, well, you already have everything.

OIL WORKER

268 comments ↓

#1 Owe Canada on 12.18.15 at 6:01 pm

The following numbers are from the Statistics Canada website:

At the end of September, 2015 the total household, government (all levels) and business debt in Canada (bottom line of the credit market summary data table – total debt outstanding) was $6.70 trillion.

At the end of September, 2014 the total debt outstanding was $6.17 trillion. In the one year period from the end of September, 2014 to the end of September, 2015 it increased by $530 billion. This is an increase of 8.5%.

The approximate beginning of the global financial crisis was June, 2007. At the end of June, 2007 the total debt outstanding was $3.99 trillion. In the last 8-1/4 years it has increased by $2.71 trillion. This is an increase of 67.9%.

Looking at the total debt outstanding in Canada of domestic non-financial sectors (17th line up from the bottom of the credit market summary data table):

At the end of September, 2015 the total debt outstanding of domestic non-financial sectors was $4.86 trillion.

At the end of September, 2014 the total debt outstanding of domestic non-financial sectors was $4.54 trillion. In the one year period from the end of September, 2014 to the end of September, 2015 it increased by $323 billion. This is an increase of 7.1%.

At the end of June, 2007 the total debt outstanding of domestic non-financial sectors was $2.84 trillion. In the last 8-1/4 years it has increased by $2.02 trillion. This is an increase of 70.9%.

The start date of the Statistics Canada data table can be changed by clicking on the “add/remove data” tab at the top of the page.

http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/pick-choisir?lang=eng&p2=33&id=3780122

#2 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 12.18.15 at 6:06 pm

Great post Garth!

#3 Chopper on 12.18.15 at 6:06 pm

All we need is a good prime minister and we will sail off into paradise.

#4 Garth is my enabler on 12.18.15 at 6:07 pm

Again and again…

Saving , reason, logic, math should guide our decisions.
Smart investing…

Look around – wrong!,
Housing in Canada is too big to fail.

There will be no correction , not slow not fast, ever!

Inflation will eat excess …
Liberals love low dollar , Chretien’s .68c $ i still remember, kinda like arrested within borders, cant go anywhere…

Spend now, other people money.
borrow like there is no tomorrow!
How many actual repossession happened in Canada?

Yes Garth makes sense, but look, he the only one
who sees that T2 have no clothes…

#5 Mark on 12.18.15 at 6:10 pm

The Maclean’s article is pretty accurate — most of the job gains in the post-tech bubble era went not to the highly educated, but rather, to the relatively low educated. Of course, on the strength of such historically abnormal employment growth, they took out large loans.

I think a lot of people, including policy makers, think that they can magically cut interest rates, and wham, the housing problem will eventually go away through devaluation. It rarely works out as planned that way, especially in economies that have such significant investments in their export sector. Falling interest rates imply higher currency valuations over the long run (the ability to lower interest rates and not trigger inflation is a sign of currency strength!). Alberta may have been “saved” (relatively speaking) in the short term by the falling CAD$ (mostly pushed down because of speculators, not on account of the fundamentals which solidly favour it being much, much higher), but eventually Alberta’s severely over-invested oilpatch will lose the benefit of the lower CAD$.

As for housing, we’re over 2 years into the declines across Canada (including Vancouver/Toronto). Investor confidence is rapidly waning in the asset class. The OSFI fired a sort of warning shot across the bow the other day implying that capital requirements for holding mortgages were likely to rise at the banks in the future. Our innovators can’t find jobs except for the lucky few who can skip off to the USA. Its likely to be good times ahead for those who didn’t hitch their fortunes to the O&G or housing bubbles, but terrible for everyone else as the past decade of profligacy is unwound.

#6 Nemesis on 12.18.15 at 6:11 pm

“If you’re young and in love, well, you already have everything.” – HonGT

#Indeed… #ButForThoseWhoAren’t… #WhyNotBecome… #ADutchDrivingInstructor….

[Telegraph] – Driving instructors ‘may offer lessons in return for sex’, Netherlands government confirms: The practice, known as ‘ride for a ride’, has been deemed ‘legal but undesirable’

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/netherlands/12059110/Driving-instructors-may-offer-lessons-in-return-for-sex-Netherlands-government-confirms.html

#OrMoveToBlighty… #WhereMarkTheCarney… #HasAchievedWonders…

[Independent] – Inequality: Richest one per cent ‘have as much wealth as the poorest 57 per cent combined’
The full extent of the banking industry’s influence over the Chancellor has been revealed

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/inequality-richest-one-per-cent-have-as-much-wealth-as-the-poorest-57-per-cent-combined-a6779201.html

#Or… #AFitnessRegimenSoGood… #ItCouldEvenTransformSmokingMan…

[Telegraph] – Male model reveals his body transformation secrets

…”Michael Sullivan wasn’t always proud of his body. Only four years ago, the 23-year old, from County Kerry, Ireland, was relentlessly bullied for his weight and lived on a diet of junk food and alcohol. But today, after vowing to become healthy and silence his tormentors, Sullivan has become an international model and an advocate for natural fitness.”…

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/health/bullied-male-model-reveals-his-body-transformation-secrets/

#7 Rick on 12.18.15 at 6:13 pm

A quick poll of you folks and maybe even Garth. I’m a 416er with a $750k home which is 90% owned. I have about 450k in other assets and investments. I’ve wanted to sell the house for the past year and rent. Then I can use the proceeds from the sale to invest as I’m fearful my equity will be wiped out when all the weak hands are forced to exit the market. My wife wants to take on more debt and get a bigger house.

Who’s right? Who’s wrong? What should we do?!

#8 Axehead on 12.18.15 at 6:16 pm

Just got back from US (San Diego). Man, the country is rocking! You can just feel it; in the attitude, in the action, in the people.

But returning to Tex-ass north, it wasn’t just the weather that was cold and frigid: work opportunity, money value against US currency, long term attitude, apathetic political climate.

#9 Axehead on 12.18.15 at 6:18 pm

#7 Rick: grow a set, get educated (carefully read Garth’s blog) and learn the right thing to do – sheesh!

#10 Alberta Ed on 12.18.15 at 6:18 pm

More good news: S&P just downgraded Albertastan’s credit rating.

#11 Rick on 12.18.15 at 6:21 pm

#9 Axehead: That was pretty unhelpful. The question was should a person in my position who owns the vast majority of their home be fearful of a correction draining my equity away. With all the costs of selling and then eventual costs of re-buying, would it be worth it?

No one has a crystal ball. I’m just asking what others would do given the same circumstance.

#12 Smoking Man on 12.18.15 at 6:23 pm

#287 TurnerNation on 12.18.15 at 5:21 pm
Is this a gas tank blog?
Buckle up for possible “Black Monday”.
……………………….

Took a quick peek at the 5 year chart on the S & P 500 after your post.

Woo BATMAN clearly defined.

#13 Paul on 12.18.15 at 6:23 pm

#7 RICK
——————————————————————-
Try and keep up.

#14 Garth is my enabler on 12.18.15 at 6:25 pm

#7 Rick…
LOL
you got to be kidding?

But of course GET bigger house or another house!
when you borrow small you have problem
when you borrow a LOT Bank have problem.

I have seen commercials on TV that lady in bank will help you with more money and you can skip a month,
take vacation, because you are richer than you think…

Spend man, you live only once!

#15 Victoria Real Estate Update on 12.18.15 at 6:25 pm

As Garth’s post makes clear, even a small increase in mortgage rates could easily put many recent high risk, high ratio buyers/mortgage holders in a state of financial difficulty.

There will be several small rate increases over the next 2 to 3 years and many Canadians will be hit hard by this.

Rising rates will cause a change in buyer confidence/psychology and this could have a bigger negative effect on house prices than the increase in mortgage costs.

When Canadian bankers/economists talk as negatively as they have about the future of Canada’s economy and housing market, it’s likely that the situation will play out worse than their warnings suggest.

Canada’s enormous housing bubble will deflate. That the deflation of the bubble has been delayed by policy for as long as it has only made the inevitable housing price correction steeper and deeper.

Every Canadian city will go through a major housing market correction. There’s no getting around it. It isn’t different in Canada.

#16 double double on 12.18.15 at 6:27 pm

I was at Tim Horton’s today and overheard a guy behind the counter telling his coworker that he just paid 900k for a house here in YVR. “Wow, you must be rich ” was the coworker’s response. “Not yet, but I’ll sell it soon and make a million profit, then I’ll be rich “. God help us all.

#17 Michael King on 12.18.15 at 6:27 pm

From experience, I know that the Vancouver real estate market can quickly turn nasty for recent buyers. My first purchase in this market was a 1 bdrm condo for $95k in the summer of ’84. The vendor was RBC and it was a foreclosure sale. In ’81 this property was purchased for $139k. That is just over a 30 percent drop in only three years. Big trouble looms!

#18 Brian on 12.18.15 at 6:29 pm

All we need is hard data on foreign investment and that will settle a massive debate about whats moving YVR properties and if locals will ever have a hope.

But overall a great couple weeks for the blog dogs. 10% down now required on $999,999 starter house, and the Fed moved. Everyone have a scotch tonight and hope for the future.

Hell, maybe at this rate, T2 will announce a massive tax on HAM right on Christmas eve!

#19 Freedom First on 12.18.15 at 6:30 pm

Yes. It is extremely difficult for the herd to look at the big picture. It is why they always go over the cliff.

Young and in love. Sounds right, as I can honestly say I loved all of my girlfriends. However, I look at the big picture in everything to do with my life. This leads to a low risk high reward system which protects my most valuable asset. Me.

And, I help others out of the kindness of my heart, not from any fabricated societal obligation. My life, my rules.

#20 For those about to flop... on 12.18.15 at 6:34 pm

Love is all you need…an endless pile of cash as well wouldn’t hurt I guess!

#21 Herb on 12.18.15 at 6:34 pm

Nothing to worry about. Notley and Trudeau will continue to be tarred as the source of all economic evil, and all we will have to do is await the next election cycle. Problem, should there have been one, solved with the return of Right Wing government.

#22 pathcontrolmonk on 12.18.15 at 6:36 pm

Meanwhile Gregor and Justin give each other big hugs.

#23 Linda on 12.18.15 at 6:36 pm

The dog cupcakes are so cute!

#7 Rick: try to sell. IF you get your price, start looking for the bargain upgrade with the firm caveat that you do NOT spend more than what you got out of selling the old place. Should you not be able to sell or are only receiving low ball offers from those who are also looking to upgrade at a bargain price, discuss the idea of home renovations with your spouse. If you think about it, the land transfer tax, realtor fees etc. are going to cost you a very large sum. What kind of home renos could be done with the money you’d be paying out if you did sell?

As for equity being wiped out, keep in mind that equity only exists when & if you sell the house at an amount that includes this equity. Do you ‘need’ the money? Do you ‘need’ to sell in order to have enough income to live on? Do you actually like where you live now?

As for investing, keep in mind there are no guarantees regarding returns. If you are selling in a panic because you are fearful of ‘losing’ your equity, it does not bode well for how you would handle a sudden drop in the market. Those who panic sell usually sell at a loss. Those funds you are hoping to gain from the sale of the house & subsequent investments could just as easily get ‘wiped out’ via a market correction or downturn.

#24 Nanaimo Bar on 12.18.15 at 6:37 pm

What is going on with the Bond Yields? And the crowd goes quiet.

Is it possible that the Fed is shorting the Bond Yield? Have to remember that all the US Lambs were sheared in the past. The flock is healthy once again, it just needs some time to grow. They are so cute when their wool is just starting to grow. So the Fed keeps the Bond Yields down to build up the flock. Slowly increasing the Bond Yield as the flock grows.

The Fed does not want the Bond market getting ahead of its self.

As the Fed wanders along the Path, there will be little delays for branch and tree removal. The Fed does not want any Lambs tripping or injuring themselves on the Path. Heaven forbid if a Lamb damaged her virgin wool on a fallen tree or something. Let the little Lambs rest for awhile along the Path. They can graze and build up their strength as they continue their journey.

Meanwhile Back in Canada

Could the new Canadian mortgage rules be enough to start the shearing process, regardless of the Bond Yield? March or April? The Sheep Herder is assembling his tools and it has been 15 years since the last time that he has sheared. So, he needs a little time to get to get his tool box in order. The flock is huge. The Lamb’s wool is plump and thick, so he knows the days will be long and tiring. When the Bond Yield eventually begins to rise, the Sheep Herder has to start making decisions with his flock. Which Lambs to shear first?

Time for one Bank of Canada employee to inquire about job openings at the Bank of England.

#25 Darryl on 12.18.15 at 6:38 pm

Gased Up Smoking Man

Respect dude . Smoking Door knob is just pissed that he was served . I your case he was schooled .

What’s our normal blog name so that I can remember you as the guy ( or girl ) that put S M to shame ?

#26 pinstripe on 12.18.15 at 6:39 pm

The AB and fed CPC policy makers, including apprentice, are the root cause to the big mess in alberta today.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-credit-rating-downgraded-standard-poors-1.3372471

#27 Darryl on 12.18.15 at 6:40 pm

Garth
You pooched ( poached ) that pic from Facebook .

What’s Facebook? Actually a reader sent it to me. — Garth

#28 Doug t on 12.18.15 at 6:44 pm

BOC is damned if you do damned if you don’t – the Fed is too little too late – both have waited far far too long to deal with their respective economies. Canada never did diversify out of just cutting trees and digging rocks and America is facing a tsunami of debt created by consumer and corporate credit. We’re both screwed.

#29 Why Why Jay on 12.18.15 at 6:51 pm

I was attempting to do my part in helping an oil patch worker by truck shopping on Calgary craigslist and kijiji. I thought for sure I could find some smoking deals, but nothing popped out. Plenty of listings, just none good enough to buy a ticket to YYC.

Either people aren’t desperate (yet) or they put so little down that they have to keep the price up to cover the lien.

#30 MSM-Free Zone on 12.18.15 at 6:58 pm

“……They are also relatively poor and uneducated. The increase from a decade ago was led by debtors whose highest education was high school, suggesting they could struggle to find decent jobs in a weaker economy……’
_________________________

Classic truck nutz mentality. A repeat of the 80’s in Alberta. Fox Creek a ghost town. Motels boarded up. Car lots empty. Auction lots full.

In Calgary, the Lambo dealership beneath the Calgary tower, the tallest building at the time, folded into receivership.

One-trick economy, one-trick comedy.

Alberta Advantage? B.S.

Saskatchewan Advantage? B.S. (stop trying to blame others, Brad Wall)

#31 Bram on 12.18.15 at 7:02 pm


But there still exists the possibility he will cut rates again next year

I see that Garth is slowly abandoning his earlier prediction of a BoC rate-hike.

There are two more steps to go from 0.5 to 0.25 to 0.0 and then we will be where the US used to be at.

Maybe after that, we’ll see a rate hike again, followed by a YVR price plunge. But that’s probably still years away.

Bram

Of course the BoC will increase, but not until late in 2016. — Garth

#32 Retired Boomer WI on 12.18.15 at 7:03 pm

Love tonight’s 2nd picture. But… Which guy is the former oil patch worker? The grey haired Boomer who might not have ever saved a thing, in which case, I say screw him. It’s not like he never made any money, and if he never made any money…well, let’s just say the monicker loser might well apply.
Get used to poverty, the rest of your life depends on it.

If the guy in the hard-hat is the laid off oil patch worker, well then dump the hat idiot. You certainly don’t need it now, and get your butt to the US where road sewer, and water projects are still buzzing, and get your ass to work to save your truck nuts.

Oil will rebound in price someday. There is right now nothing in the shorter term to replace it. You can always relocate northward again, just don’t buy RE until you are ready to stay awhile -not just because you HAVE a job-OK?

Here endeth the RANT.

#33 short story on 12.18.15 at 7:04 pm

“We live in a basement apartment … I work for a large financial institution and my boyfriend works for a big insurance company.”

They are in and close to their thirties.

The story is fatally fugged up already, right there – regardless of anything else.

#34 young & foolish on 12.18.15 at 7:06 pm

Investing Decisions Made Easy:

My grandpappy says real estate is for the loooong haul.
(sort of like buy and hold index funds)

#35 my 2 c on 12.18.15 at 7:07 pm

#5 Mark
Read your comment and got all warm and fuzzy.

#7
Keep the existing house or downsize. Have cash ready to buy cheaper land and houses when the tide has turned.

Absolutely no way that a massive amount of Canadian mortgage holders will keep making the payments when the values drop and jobs are lost.

Canada’s shit stinks just like every other nation’s. Debt and inflated RE values broke the financials of Spain, Italy, Ireland and other places.
Greece couldn’t afford to leverage and keep paying the entitlements and government services.

Canada is somewhere in between these places. Not quite Brazil or Venezuela and not quite as bad as Greece either.

But also not exceptional enough to come out clean.

Did you all read that Mexico raised its benchmark rate .25% the day the Fed raised?

Mexico is the other American neighbor with an economy heavily based in resources.

#36 jess on 12.18.15 at 7:08 pm

from 1998 to 2004

Washington, D.C. – James B. Lockhart, Acting Director of the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), today released its Report of the Special Examination of Fannie Mae. The report details an arrogant and unethical corporate culture where Fannie Mae employees manipulated accounting and earnings to trigger bonuses for senior executives from 1998 to 2004. The report also prescribes corrective actions to ensure the safety and soundness of the company.

In september 2004 OFHEO issued an interim repport that detailed serious problems relating to fannie mae accounting ofheo found that fannie mae did not comply with GAAP for fas 91 which deals with amortization of loan fees premiums and discount and faas 133 which covers derivatives and hedge accounting. the sec concurred with ofheo findings and ordered fannie to restate its finanial statement filed with the commission.

the OFHEO report details an arrogant and unethical corporate culture. perhaps the best writtten record of this culture is a memo from the chief operation officer to the CEO two months after OFHEO interim report. he was discussing the need to change and wrote : The old political reality was that we always won, we took no prisioners..” and he added, we used to be able to write or have written rules that worked for us.
fannie mae management directed employees to manipulate accounting and earnings to trigger max bonuses for senior executives from 1998 to 2004 the image of fannie mae was one of the lowest risk and best in class … was a facade.

#37 waiting on the westcoast on 12.18.15 at 7:14 pm

#23 Why Why Jay on 12.18.15 at 6:51 pm “I was attempting to do my part in helping an oil patch worker by truck shopping on Calgary craigslist and kijiji. I thought for sure I could find some smoking deals, but nothing popped out. Plenty of listings, just none good enough to buy a ticket to YYC.”

I was on swapalease last June and saw a guy who was the CEO kid an oil services company offering first 25 and then 50k of his initial deposit of 75k on an Aston Martin Vanquish. He must have just picked it up 6 months before the turn in oil. I e that his company went under later…

It’s sad that so many are going to be hurt but if you have $$$, next year will be opportune for vultching in AB.

#38 Bobs ur uncle on 12.18.15 at 7:17 pm

#15 double double on 12.18.15 at 6:27 pm
I was at Tim Horton’s today and overheard a guy behind the counter telling his coworker that he just paid 900k for a house here in YVR. “Wow, you must be rich ” was the coworker’s response. “Not yet, but I’ll sell it soon and make a million profit, then I’ll be rich “. God help us all.

****

You saying a dude working at Timmies just paid 900k for a house??!!

If so, then cue Jim Morrison: ‘This is the end/ beautiful friend, the end.’

#39 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.18.15 at 7:17 pm

Was at a large Christmas party at lunch today. Several hundred workers standing about noshing on free food and waiting for the 50/50 draw to begin ( the real reason I’m sure most were there).
Overheard a 20 something worker ask another, ” Heard you bought a condo in Steveston….”.
“Yep!”, was the smug reply,” $450k .Take posession in March….”

And another one bites the dust……..

#40 Yaley on 12.18.15 at 7:19 pm

“Of course the BoC wil increase, but not until late in 2016. — Garth”
…………………………….
Maybe, but it’s s looking more and more that they will cut rates before they hike.

#41 Sunshine on 12.18.15 at 7:24 pm

@ #11 Rick
I would say that it depends on your age and what your plans are for the future. Having said that, read this article in Investopediahttp://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/121815/4-reasons-why-housing-recovery-will-be-shortlived.asp

#42 motown boy on 12.18.15 at 7:24 pm

Gartho,

I’m listening to you, but I can beat the basement dweller. I have an opportunity to move to Detroit and earn over $100k. Low cost, good salary. I could also buy a rosedale style house for $200k, or rent, which I will for $900/month. Should I do it? Even if I may get murdered?

#43 Other Brother Darryl on 12.18.15 at 7:27 pm

Hey Canada! Both Blackberry and Bombardier shares are up with positive news surrounding the Priv and the C-Series Jets… soon to be ‘flying’ off the shelves.

We can add those achievements to a growing list, let’s see… we also have 100% pure Maple Syrup, the best Cheese, quality Beef and Dairy products.

CANada CAN invent stuff! We just have to get our priorities straight… like the time we invented the WonderBra! Way to go, Canada!

#44 macduff on 12.18.15 at 7:30 pm

I really like coming to this blog. Why? Because it tells it as it is. So many politicians have an optimism bias……like our finance ministers who suggest this is just a blip on the road to a brighter future. What a lot of bull. Things have been getting progressively worse for the last five years, and we are in the process of lowering our expectations about our standard of living. Kind of like how I tell my son that when I was younger, airlines used to provide a full meal on their flights (damn, I promised I would never become my father and wax poetic about how things were better back then).

#45 West Coast on 12.18.15 at 7:30 pm

I regularly interview people who have large mortgages, weak essential skills and precarious jobs.
Keeping in mind that outside the City of Vancouver [area 114 square kilometres, population 603,500] there are many in the suburbs (Metro Van = 2.4 million) who have squeezed themselves and their families into over priced, poorly constructed dwellings. These folks are living ‘the Canadian dream’ – house, land, kids and cars. Underpinning ‘the dream’ are a couple of shaky jobs held by overworked parents who’ve taken out a really big mortgage. It doesn’t take much to rock that boat and when it flips – watch out. Forget about the West side, West Van etc. People with ‘jobs’ don’t live there anyway (unless they rent a basement suite or live with their mum and dad.)
Trouble will hit the lower mainland in the suburbs first and then watch out…………

#46 Sheane Wallace on 12.18.15 at 7:32 pm

#248 bdy sktrn on 12.18.15 at 1:45 pm

Real estate agents are getting very hungry.

#47 Yaley on 12.18.15 at 7:34 pm

For a reversal in the uptrend in YVR or 416 real estate there probably will have to be substantial job losses. It hasn’t even started, the economies are humming nicely and I don’t see what will make it happen.

In the case of YVR, foreign investment getting even stronger wih a low loonie (even as modest as this blog thinks it is), a stong economy (some industries are booming again like tourism and film because of the low dollar), net immigration, a shortage of listings, an under supply of new homes, low rates for a while yet will keep this market bouyant.

A slowdown in gains maybe. A meltdown hardly.

Where did I suggest meltdown? Any slowdown in a market rife with delusion and speculation is toxic. — Garth

#48 Sheane Wallace on 12.18.15 at 7:35 pm

#248 bdy sktrn on 12.18.15 at 1:45 pm

I will take Spain instead of Van City any time.

Still remember how somebody broke in my car to steal an old pair of running shoes to get 5-10 $ for drugs!

The center of the universe, Vancouver.
bhahahahahaha!

idiot!

#49 Daisy Mae on 12.18.15 at 7:38 pm

“….Their newly purchased homes could become a tether that prevents them moving for work, if the value of the real estate drops below the cost of the mortgage.”

*********************

Blah, blah, blah…..Garth has been telling us this for literally years. But, no one listened. It’s old news. It’s all quite disgusting. We damn well deserve what we get.

#50 GB on 12.18.15 at 7:47 pm

Trudeau may not be intellectually gifted, like the Brits think. But, I doubt he’s that he’s dumb enough to kill the last real bright spot in the Canadian economy.

Slow down retirement savers – check.
Tax the wealthy – who wouldn’t?
Kill the loonie further – you betcha.
Throw salt in the wounds of the oil industry – Papa taught him well.
Rack up deficits – just wait.

But after opening the books and seeing the pile of dung that Harper left for him. he’s going to do what he can to keep real estate afloat.

#51 Paully on 12.18.15 at 7:56 pm

Is there any possible event that could cause a run on the Canadian Dollar? Would the central bank then have to immediately and seriously spike interest rates to defend the currency if such a thing happened?

#52 Dan Sanders on 12.18.15 at 7:56 pm

I believe higher bond yields in Canada when I see them.

This week was the total opposite for U.S. and Canadian bond yields.

Canadian 30 year bond yields that most reflect higher GDP growth, jobs and inflation fell from 2.23% the day before the Fed and Janet Yellen raised 25 basis points their Fed rate but now closed today at 2.11%.

This means a 12 basis points loss just this week and no increase in Canadian bond yields. Clearly bond markets are not in agreement with the Fed.

#53 Rookie57 on 12.18.15 at 8:00 pm

#7 Rick

I am an infrequent poster but your plea struck a bit of a chord. From your post, it looks like you are doing very well regarding your families personal financial growth. Why ruin it? Crystallize the value and invest it in something that provides decent growth as long as it is balanced, liquid, and diversified. Get a financial adviser to help out (ask the great bearded one as I am sure he could help you out). Why would you take on maximum risk at the precipice by buying a bigger and “better” house? Is it the rush or insanity?

My 2 bits.

#54 Suede on 12.18.15 at 8:03 pm

Well, those basement apartment dwellers will likely never embrace any risk and have any reward as a result.

If that’s how you want to live, go for it I guess.

#55 Smoking Man on 12.18.15 at 8:05 pm

#25 Darryl on 12.18.15 at 6:38 pm
Gased Up Smoking Man
Respect dude . Smoking Door knob is just pissed that he was served . I your case he was schooled .
What’s our normal blog name so that I can remember you as the guy ( or girl ) that put S M to shame ?

……………………
Now Let me get this right,

You want the real pseudonym of the pseudonym know to you as Gased Up Smoking Man so you can thank it for schooling me. Do you not see how weird that is.

Fkg Liberals…..

#56 For those about to flop... on 12.18.15 at 8:13 pm

#49 Daisy Mae on 12.18.15 at 7:38 pm
“….Their newly purchased homes could become a tether that prevents them moving for work, if the value of the real estate drops below the cost of the mortgage.”

*********************

Blah, blah, blah…..Garth has been telling us this for literally years. But, no one listened. It’s old news. It’s all quite disgusting. We damn well deserve what we get.

//////////////////////////////////////////////
Do you ever say anything positive ?
You make Freedom First seem like a bundle of joy.
Sure we are in strange times ,but try putting less make-up on then you might be able to smile once in a while.

#57 mike from Mtl on 12.18.15 at 8:20 pm

#48 Sheane Wallace on 12.18.15 at 7:35 pm

Still remember how somebody broke in my car to steal an old pair of running shoes to get 5-10 $ for drugs!

The center of the universe, Vancouver.
bhahahahahaha!
/////////////////////////////////////////////

Exactly,

I’ve been to vancouver & richmond many times and despite the locals claiming it’s world class and blah blah.. many REFUSE to even acknowledge their druggie homeless problems. Even far flung ‘safe’ white suburbs like pitt meadows maple ridge have very frequent break ins and ‘problems’ that would portray say San fran as family friendly to someone with half a brain.

I’ll take my gritty, up front corrupt montreal that actually has different groups other than mainlanders from china and angry white people.

no offence to my relatives dwelling in mouldy hongcouver..

#58 Drill Baby Drill on 12.18.15 at 8:22 pm

Your photo of the oil worker reminds me of the famous bumper sticker from 1986.
“Please God let their be another oil boom and I promise not to piss it away this time”.

#59 Yaley on 12.18.15 at 8:23 pm

Maybe when you use words like: toxic, delusional, disbelief and morons to describe the Van real estate market or anyone who’s even slightly optimistic, it makes me think melt down – more than a mild garden variety correction.

#60 Nanaimo Bar on 12.18.15 at 8:25 pm

More Lambs for the US. The flock will be growing.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-18/u-s-poised-to-lift-35-year-old-real-estate-tax-on-foreigners

#61 paul on 12.18.15 at 8:27 pm

#46 Sheane Wallace on 12.18.15 at 7:32 pm

#248 bdy sktrn on 12.18.15 at 1:45 pm

Real estate agents are getting very hungry.
————————————————————-
They are always hungry! No free ride for them!

#62 Freedom First on 12.18.15 at 8:27 pm

Billy Bob

Roger that!

#63 Mark on 12.18.15 at 8:29 pm

“Is there any possible event that could cause a run on the Canadian Dollar?”

A nuclear disaster in Southern Ontario perhaps.

But I personally believe the big risk is that there’s a housing/bank panic, and a buying panic in the CAD$ unfolds. As debtors and shorts of the CAD$ are forced to cover their positions.

For instance, let’s say that, tomorrow, the government states that they’re not going to honour CMHC subprime mortgage insurance claims over and above the reserves that the CMHC has available for the purpose. The reaction would be a likely crash in Canadian MBS, and a crash in the Canadian banks as the credit system freezes up. In such a case, there would be a mad dash to acquire the only asset class in the Canadian fiat system which is not subject to risk, and that is, the Canadian dollar, to repay CAD$-denominated obligations.

This is what happened in 2008/2009, albeit with the US dollar. And might actually be happening right now, especially with the US economy rolling over and credit spreads expanding significantly.

#64 Gord In Vancouver on 12.18.15 at 8:31 pm

Ha! Ha! Love that picture!

Two years from now, “an oil patch worker” will be replaced with “a Vancouverite”!

#65 kothar on 12.18.15 at 8:32 pm

Although oil has crashed to the level it is now and has a major effect on our dollar value, I believe far more damage has been done by Poloz. This guy ever since he came in to replace Carney has had only one agenda, to destroy the CAD $. With Carney, he was prudent and warned constantly about the accumulation of debt and when oil was higher, the combo, allowed our dollar to go up, maybe a little too high. Then this Poloz guy comes in from EDC and has not once warned people on debt accumulation. Instead he has kept talking the dollar down or rate cut and rate cuts. Then he trotted out last week, negative rates and spoke of divergence with USA. Those two will crush the dollar. He only cares to increase supposed exports. But if even the Chinese are finding it hard to export with falling demand (see the Baltic dry ) then how is it Canadian exports will benefit? The recent data is not showing it. The dollar has fallen vs every single currency save ZAR which is its own basket case. This Poloz guy has certainly not helped in one bit. Our lives will only become more difficult as we have to buy things with our devalued currency. This on top of carbon taxes coming from the Feds and Ontario, and forced CPP increases. Really, they are going down that road, recipe for disaster.

#66 All you need | Realties.ca on 12.18.15 at 8:32 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/12/18/all-you-need-2/ […]

#67 Drill Baby Drill on 12.18.15 at 8:34 pm

#51 Paully

“Is there any possible event that could cause a run on the Canadian Dollar?”
Yes there is and it would be a steep collapse in all commodities in which Canada now produces thereby forcing the BOC to increase rate ASAP and quickly.

#68 BS on 12.18.15 at 8:35 pm

Yaley on 12.18.15 at 7:34 pm
For a reversal in the uptrend in YVR or 416 real estate there probably will have to be substantial job losses. It hasn’t even started, the economies are humming nicely and I don’t see what will make it happen.

If you can’t see it then you are either really dumb or a realtor. Probably both. Half the jobs in YVR are directly linked to RE. Once RE slows, jobs are lost, RE slows more, more jobs lost, on and on. All this while credit is being tightened and the dollar is tanking. Foreign investors want to invest where currency is increasing relative to their currency not declining.

#69 Freedom First on 12.18.15 at 8:38 pm

#34 young and foolish

……..tell the bank you are in it for the long haul when you can’t make your mortgage payment and see what they say. You’re as dumb as your grandpappy, and that’s after all of Garth’s comments on your posts trying to help you.

#70 RayofLight on 12.18.15 at 8:48 pm

Potential “Black Swans” speculated by Bloomberg for 2016 include ISIS disrupting Middle East oil fields. This has been given a probability of 25%. If this happens, the price of oil could rise quickly, and bring the $CND with it.
http://business.financialpost.com/investing/global-investor/imagine-a-world-in-2016-where-black-swans-really-do-come-true

#71 SWL1976 on 12.18.15 at 8:52 pm

Funny story from the oil patch today. I was going to get some hot water for my tea today and there was a rather disgruntled man removing the coffee machine. So I asked what’s going on here? He said the contract has been cancelled and we’re dragging up. I say what about hot water for my tea? He says rather unpleasantly – we lost our contract – and all you care about is your tea? Well at the time I did, yes. Anyways I’m guessing that this guy is also one of the uneducated with no real skills soon to be out of work.

I guess it’s timmy ho’s tomorrow until we get our office coffee machine sorted.

Since we’re discussing the oil patch. I got suckered into some overtime for the first time in a long time. They were reluctant to even sign for it, but they realized that they were in a pinch and needed me to stay some extra days. The timing worked out good for me, so I took it. Last year a month like this I would have invoiced an easy 19K, this year I’ll be lucky to squeeze 15. Same job, same time on site, obvious less pay.

The money sure isn’t flying around here like it used to be. I remember the days we used to joke around here about the endless supply of money.

I guess many, many people didn’t get that it was only a joke.

#72 espressobob on 12.18.15 at 8:56 pm

A short term laddered bond index has far less ‘interest rate sensitivity’ than long bonds.

The Yellen event should be of concern to investors.

Fixed income also provides stability to ones portfolio.

http://www.blackrock.com/ca/individual/en/products/239492/ishares-canadian-short-term-corporate-maple-bond-index-etf

#73 Freedom First on 12.18.15 at 8:57 pm

#51 Paully

Yes.

#74 IHCTD9 on 12.18.15 at 8:58 pm

#50 GB on 12.18.15 at 7:47 pm
Trudeau may not be intellectually gifted, like the Brits think. But, I doubt he’s that he’s dumb enough to kill the last real bright spot in the Canadian economy.

Slow down retirement savers – check.
Tax the wealthy – who wouldn’t?
Kill the loonie further – you betcha.
Throw salt in the wounds of the oil industry – Papa taught him well.
Rack up deficits – just wait.

But after opening the books and seeing the pile of dung that Harper left for him. he’s going to do what he can to keep real estate afloat.
————

Harper left a 3 billion dollar deficit for Trudeau.

If that is a pile of dung, what would you call the 10 billion dollar deficit Trudeau promised to run?

Further, what would you call a 20 Billion dollar deficit?

No rush for you to answer, probably about this time next year would do fine.

#75 45north on 12.18.15 at 9:00 pm

we’re giving an oil patch worker a goat this Christmas

Canada’s overall economy has become unwisely dependent on household consumption and real estate. Because income gains have been shallow or non-existent, debt’s exploded higher. Now at a record. Off the charts, actually. People have more debt-servicing costs today than thirty years ago when rates were 20%. So you can tell why this will move from a mess to a morass.

but the Canadian Bankers Association doesn’t show a problem. In Alberta percentage of mortgages in arrears is 0.27%. Ontario is 0.15%

http://www.cba.ca/contents/files/statistics/stat_mortgage_db050_en.pdf

I mean the latest figures are for August 2015. Basically three months behind.

Here’s an article in the Globe and Mail, August 2015:

The situation is worse in Alberta than the rest of the country, where, historically, default rates average 0.45 per cent. In the United States, by way of comparison, close to 8 per cent of all mortgage holders are late on their payments.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/albertas-delinquent-homeowners-lead-the-pack/article578724/

I guess “mortgages in arrears” is a lagging indicator

#76 Randy Randerson on 12.18.15 at 9:01 pm

Long haul only works if you have a job, and will outlive the debt. Highly doubtful for most people with only a Bachelor degree.

#77 Drill Baby Drill on 12.18.15 at 9:02 pm

Even if HAM were true to the extent that many think it is in the RE market the Canadian government will not clamp down because Canada now needs all of the foreign investment it can get.

#78 all atomic bomb footage is fake on 12.18.15 at 9:03 pm

#63 Mark on 12.18.15 at 8:29 pm

“Is there any possible event that could cause a run on the Canadian Dollar?”

A nuclear disaster in Southern Ontario perhaps

——

nukes don’t exist mark

#79 Drill Baby Drill on 12.18.15 at 9:03 pm

IHCTD9

Chretien left in today’s dollars 55 billion deficit when Harper took over.

Absolutely false. I was there. — Garth

#80 Love my Kia on 12.18.15 at 9:07 pm

I saw this pic on Facebook a few weeks ago too, shared it with a few dog lover friends of mine.

I was hoping to see a pic of a fish out of water, appropriate right now.

#81 Love my Kia on 12.18.15 at 9:12 pm

New mortgage rules introduced by T2.

Finally someone is starting to undo that horrendous mess Harper took many years to make.

For those of you who think our problems were caused by T2, well all I can say is you have a memory problem. We were in recession before the election.

#82 Yaley on 12.18.15 at 9:14 pm

#69 BS

I won’t go so far as to call you dumb. Just uninformed and misguided. I’ll leave the dumb judgements for your past teachers (that failed you) and peers to make.

Vancouver may be real estate obsessed, but there’s not many more people employed in the real estate industry than any other major city in Canada. Not even close to half.

So, foreign investors only want to invest in a country who’s currency is strengthening not low – I see. A 30% discount means nothing I guess. I’m making a few guesses about your profession right now – but I’ll keep it to myself.

#83 Mark on 12.18.15 at 9:16 pm

“Yes there is and it would be a steep collapse in all commodities in which Canada now produces thereby forcing the BOC to increase rate ASAP and quickly.”

Where would the inflation that necessitated policy rate increases come from if commodities collapsed even further?

Already most commodities are at or below their long-term cost of production. So there is, at some level, a floor on the CAD$ as producers won’t produce into accelerating losses. Much like there was a roof on the CAD$ on account of people shifting much of their consumption to foreign when commodity prices were high.

Harper left a 3 billion dollar deficit for Trudeau.

Don’t know why this mis-truth keeps being repeated. The debt of Canada was $628.6B as of December 31, 2014. The debt of Canada as of November 31 was $650.1B. The difference, the YTD deficit, is therefore $21.5B, not “$3B” as the dishonest Harper-ites would claim.

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/markets/government-securities-auctions/goc-t-bills-and-bonds-outstanding/

The deficit is budgetary, not the increase in net debt. Three billion seems correct. — Garth

#84 45north on 12.18.15 at 9:17 pm

Sheane Wallace: talking about Vancouver: Still remember how somebody broke in my car to steal an old pair of running shoes to get 5-10 $ for drugs!

I’d say they broke into your car to get the running shoes

#85 Trojan House on 12.18.15 at 9:19 pm

#1 Owe Canada on 12.18.15 at 6:01 pm

Obviously this debt, whether government, etc, will never be paid off.

#86 Interstellar Old Yeller on 12.18.15 at 9:20 pm

Alana & squeeze, WTG, you have the right idea. We are you, ten years later (except high-rise, not basement) and I can assure you that money in your investment accounts brings security, freedom, and reduced worries. You already have love, so that brings happiness. And it’s a lot easier to be in love if you don’t fight about money or live in fear of foreclosure or repossession.

I don’t know so I’m asking: are your incomes on the low side for your roles, location, and industry? If you aren’t already, improve your experience and qualifications, and be looking for promotions and increased pay every 1-2 years. Both of you, try to rake in some bucks while young (and before you have kids).

Congrats on being one of the (few) smart letter writers featured on the blog!

(Garth – cupcake puppies = adorable! Have a great weekend. :)

#87 Leo Trollstoy on 12.18.15 at 9:23 pm

#7 Rick on 12.18.15 at 6:13 pm

Depends on who wears the pants in your relationship.

#88 Mark on 12.18.15 at 9:25 pm

“Chretien left in today’s dollars 55 billion deficit when Harper took over.”

The beauty of the Internet is that this sort of bunk is so easy to debunk.

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/markets/government-securities-auctions/goc-t-bills-and-bonds-outstanding/

December, 2003 (~ when Chretien left) = $390B
February, 2006 (~ when Martin was defeated and Harper became PM) = $377B

November, 2015 (~ when Harper left) = $650.1B

Amazing numbers if you actually sit down and look at them, just how bad Harper was, on the spending front, compared to the previous Liberal regime. Sponsorship scandal and all. And Harper’s numbers don’t even include the mess Harper left at the CMHC which sooner or later will come “on balance sheet” and probably tack another $100-$300B onto the numbers (although as Troll points out, Trudeau might end up taking the blame for it!).

#89 TurnerNation on 12.18.15 at 9:31 pm

Bay St is hurting. This month publicly three brokers croaked: Octagon, Jacobs, Salman ; Byron last year
Globe musing another independent dealer is on the block. Dozens more gave up their trading number or registration in years after GFC.
Others quietly let go staffers.

Bank owned are consolidating their respective powers. No bank mergers, they said. Everything else goes.

#90 Herf on 12.18.15 at 9:35 pm

A parody of YVR/YYZ. Garth is the fellow in the gold shirt and YVR/YYZ is the fellow in the blue:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-S4JpRkvUE

#91 Leo Trollstoy on 12.18.15 at 9:35 pm

I guess we can burn our CAD this winter for warmth.

#92 Leo Trollstoy on 12.18.15 at 9:36 pm

Anyone betting on the CAD will wait 2 decades before seeing a profit. Awesome ROI.

Lol

#93 Almost Retired on 12.18.15 at 9:42 pm

#82 Yaley

“Vancouver may be real estate obsessed, but there’s not many more people employed in the real estate industry than any other major city in Canada. Not even close to half.”
…………………………
Very true. From what I’ve read the biggest employer is the drug trafficking industry. Followed closely by Dim Sum eateries. Both high growth industries.

#94 ben on 12.18.15 at 9:55 pm

FT with a story saying the Fed are tipped to raise again in March.

Excited yet Canadians?

#95 IHCTD9 on 12.18.15 at 9:55 pm

#81 Love my Kia on 12.18.15 at 9:12 pm

For those of you who think our problems were caused by T2,…
————–

Not were caused, but will be caused.

He’s barely out of the gate and the election promises are being plinked off the fence on a weekly basis. Trudeau has to know what he’s in for economy wise next year, but no cuts of any kind on the agenda. Rather, he says to hell with the deficit cap, blows 1.2 Billion on a bungled tax cut, gives billions away to other countries, and is rolling up his sleeves to spend tens of billions in order to “create jobs”. This just sounds all too familiar.

We’ve tried all this here in Ontario, and we just got 300 Billion in debt, and an 11 Billion deficit. We spend about 10 billion just to service that debt every year. Granted, Wynne is probably the single most financially illiterate imbecile Politician to have ever been elected to govern anywhere on the planet.

It won’t work any better for T2 than it did for McGuinty and Wynne.

If Trudeau can’t swallow his pride next year, and do what needs to be done – heaven help anyone up to their eyeballs in debt in this Country.

#96 ontheledge on 12.18.15 at 10:00 pm

Garth – most of your posters are really just searching for investment advice that you can’t give. I’m glad i didn’t listen to the RE doomsayers when I bought my first house in YYZ in 2001. You’ll be right…someday…one thing about investors is they love anything that reinforces their own view. I don’t think you’re wrong, things are definately cresting, but byjesus, you must be getting tired. So getting back to investment advice (for those who don’t want to attend the nanny camp) beyond the nice internationally balanced portfolio – I wonder how many of your sanctimonious, entitled, baby boomer readers have taken truly contrarian positions in public markets positioning themselves for the next 500%. I would wager dearly that it is very few. So here is some advice to your sheeple. There are some very crowded short trades in international markets. Specifically in Oil and Oil E&P and Infrastructure, and PMs. I don’t know where the Oil bottom is, but Canadian Select is close to $20 which is cost. For PMs you have to play off the DXY which may have another 20% upside. In both cases it like a rubber band, you can only streach so far until it snaps back. You’ll never “make” any money shorting your house. However, the biggest money is always made by being a strong hand in a SECTOR (feel free to buy an ETF) and waiting. As Jesse Livermore said, money is made by waiting, not trading.

#97 Drill Baby Drill on 12.18.15 at 10:12 pm

Dear Pathetic Blog: my apologize I was out by $65 B on the deficit number. Oops my bad.

#98 Leo Trollstoy on 12.18.15 at 10:16 pm

FT with a story saying the Fed are tipped to raise again in March.

That would be awesome.

#99 Great Canadian Bubble Co. on 12.18.15 at 10:16 pm

I wonder if all of those homeowners hoping for negative rates to keep their ‘values’ up realize that their $1 Million + homes will really be worth $500,000 in the real world.

#100 Retired Boomer WI on 12.18.15 at 10:20 pm

#4 Young & Foolish

Buying Real Estate is for the loooong haul.

Quite true. Grandpa did not go quite far enough there.
Buying Real Estate at the right price is for the long haul.

Sort of like buying a (used) car. Do you buy a car when yours has died and you really need one?

Smarter people buy one when the car, and the price are RIGHT – even if you absolutely don’t ‘need one’ at that very moment.

You then have options, sell your old one, maybe turn over the new one at a profit.

Choices, money brings choices that’s all it ever does.

Choose wisely

#101 Dave L on 12.18.15 at 10:21 pm

My wife and I make about $100K combined per year, so about $70K after tax. We rent and manage to save about $20-$25K per year after tax. Is that ok?

#102 Smoking Man on 12.18.15 at 10:34 pm

#95 IHCTD9 on 12.18.15 at 9:55 pm

Know this, T2 got elected by schooled un educated kids,

talked son, the one that knocked my tooth out the other day, that bastard is a man.

He said when he was in high school, it WAS kill Mike Harris his teachers said, he got bood at a blue Jay game field trip.

climate change, rammed up there ass.

These Cultural Marxist want nothing more than de industrialization.

There’s a blue print…

You’re all fkd.

The lengths I’ve gone to, to protect my wealth is worthy of a book.

At the rate I’m going on the first one.

You are all doomed.

Don’t have enough time to save you.

#103 HFT Dude on 12.18.15 at 10:37 pm

Paul Krugman from 2005. Replace a few cities with Canadian counterparts and it is eerily similar to where we are today:

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/08/opinion/that-hissing-sound.html

#104 Don on 12.18.15 at 10:40 pm

If the BoC is really concerned about debt loads and want to scare Canadians back to a financially prudent path, why not follow the Fed up this first quarter point? They don’t have to follow it all the way up. I know the economy isn’t strong enough yet to call for a raise in the rate, but it seems easier to bite the bullet a little now than helplessly watch one get fired into the economy’s head later.

#105 Yoda on 12.18.15 at 10:58 pm

Strong in Alana the Force is.

#106 kommykim on 12.18.15 at 11:28 pm

RE:

#52 Dan Sanders on 12.18.15 at 7:56 pm
This means a 12 basis points loss just this week and no increase in Canadian bond yields. Clearly bond markets are not in agreement with the Fed.

What I think has happened is that the market anticipated a more hawkish tone from the US Fed and is now readjusting to the reality of smaller more cautious hikes..

#107 Other Brother Darryl on 12.18.15 at 11:33 pm

TO: Smoking Man
you are too strange to try and understand. Your posts are painful to read sometimes. Try to be more consistent, and less drunk.

From: Other posters

#108 young & foolish on 12.18.15 at 11:33 pm

“……..tell the bank you are in it for the long haul when you can’t make your mortgage payment and see what they say. You’re as dumb as your grandpappy, and that’s after all of Garth’s comments on your posts trying to help you.”

Hey, I thought I was the greater fool here, but you seem determined to usurp me! You sir, know not of what you speak.

#109 Trading Naked on 12.18.15 at 11:37 pm

#57 mike from Mtl on 12.18.15 at 8:20 pm

It’s not just that there are different groups, it’s that everybody speaks French. A longtime (Chinese) immigrant said to me that the policy was “learn…or else”. And the effort is noticed and repaid. After my bus driver overheard us chatting in French and Chinese, he smiled and said “ni hao” to me when I left. It’s easy to criticize Quebec for their language law, but I can tell from my experience that it makes for more neighbourly relations all around.

#110 Sponge on 12.18.15 at 11:39 pm

Kiss my f*£€|n a$$ oil man… Harper economics has lead us here.. Hopefully the jobs forecast gets better but I think Canada is fooked! Thanks Garth for this blog input.. Finally see a typical input from a usual lower middle class fam… Keep it up sir!

#111 Mark on 12.18.15 at 11:42 pm

“If the BoC is really concerned about debt loads and want to scare Canadians back to a financially prudent path, why not follow the Fed up this first quarter point? “

Because the domestic economy ex-FIRE doesn’t justify higher rates. In fact, rates even at 0.5% are probably too high for the Canadian economy given how poor it really is.

The problem with low rates as they’ve been implemented in the contemporary sense is that the credit has largely gone towards the RE sector, on account of the CMHC providing a credit preference through the CMHC subprime mortgage insurance program. While credit to legitimate industrial companies (that employ people in high quality positions) has been far more expensive.

For instance, the CMHC has guaranteed $900B of subprime mortgages. While Bombardier was, until its recent recapitalization, on the verge of bankruptcy after spending $5B on its jet. A jet which is by far the most advanced in its class, has no meaningful competition, and will create thousands of jobs and eventually significant investment returns for Canadians.

In other sectors of the Canadian economy, speculation and investment is not being rewarded. For instance, Canada used to have a robust R&D function in its telecom sector. The company “Nortel” actually was a spin-off of Bell Canada’s R&D operations. There is very little venture capital available for the IT sector, with most companies being forced to obtain funding from US investors. The cost of capital to Canadian business is extremely high and pro-RE, pro-bank government policy is largely the root of such.

Now that the RE industry is undeniably in a state of decline across Canada, some investment will flow back to the non-FIRE economy. But FIRE is so large at this point that its decline will take a significant amount of ZIRP and NIRP to resolve the deflation likely to persist in the Canadian economy for an extended period. ZIRP/NIRP won’t revive investment in the RE sector as there is now severe overcapacity and horrifyingly bad future demographic trends.

#112 ARP on 12.18.15 at 11:43 pm

#101 Dave L on 12.18.15 at 10:21 pm
My wife and I make about $100K combined per year, so about $70K after tax. We rent and manage to save about $20-$25K per year after tax. Is that ok?

====================================

@ Dave — Yes. Better than most here. Better than most anywhere. :)

#113 kommykim on 12.18.15 at 11:44 pm

RE:

#75 IHCTD9 on 12.18.15 at 8:58 pm
Further, what would you call a 20 Billion dollar deficit?

Smaller than the average deficit run by Harper and the CONs.

#114 BC Guy on 12.18.15 at 11:46 pm

In the “greatest country in the world”, two young well-educated professionals are satisfied renting a basement.

Sad, very sad. They should be living in a 4 bedroom house on a couple acre lot with a dog and a cat and lots of room to grow.

Just shows you how screwed up this country is, one of the largest and most prosperous countries in the world – yet where the too many young, educated professionals are basement dwellers.

There is a solution to this problem: land reform. Tax the large land owners until they sell and are forced to subdivide. 200,000 hectares of land owned by US billionaire and young Canadians are paying $1000 to live in basements.

Time for a revolution in this country.

#115 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 12.18.15 at 11:54 pm

#47 Yaley

A slowdown in gains maybe. A meltdown hardly.
___________________________________________

“Where did I suggest meltdown? Any slowdown in a market rife with delusion and speculation is toxic. — Garth”

I disagree. A meltdown is becoming more likely because of the nature of the rise and the delusion of the market. If the rise becomes parabolic, a meltdown would almost be a certainty. Calgary will show us.

Moreover, foreign money is hot money, making it a destabiizing factor. We do not have enough hard facts here, but I suspect it is similar to San Fran, Sydney etc… which is more than 5%.

#116 young & foolish on 12.18.15 at 11:55 pm

Rick #7

” …I have about 450k in other assets and investments. I’ve wanted to sell the house for the past year and rent. Then I can use the proceeds from the sale to invest as I’m fearful my equity will be wiped out when all the weak hands are forced to exit the market. ”

This is a good question. Sir, you will have made money if you sell. Your equity will probably be better protected in a balanced portfolio but you will certainly need it’s annual returns to pay for rent in a 416 neighbourhood.
As for growth, don’t expect much from any market, 416 RE included, over the foreseeable future.
Selling and moving up at this time is a certain mistake.

#117 Bottoms_Up on 12.18.15 at 11:56 pm

Alana here’s some unsolicited advice. Ask your BF if kids are in his marriage plans, and tell him this is what u really want to try for (many couples don’t have this conversation until it is too late). And also consider that a woman’s fertility falls off a cliff after about age 30.

#118 cmj on 12.19.15 at 12:01 am

#7 Rick
It appears that you are well on your way to financial freedom. Housing prices in 416 will devalue

Not knowing more of your personal circumstances, it is hard to offer specific advice. I would hope you consider the cost of selling your home and buying another one. I would also go to a financial advisor so your wife can hear and see the facts. See someone like Garth. Avoid the banks for advice as they have their personal invested interest in mortgages and investments.

At the end of the day, it is priceless to be financially free. No house is worth the cost of sleepless nights.

#119 Sheane Wallace on 12.19.15 at 12:07 am

84 45north on 12.18.15 at 9:17 pm
Sheane Wallace: talking about Vancouver: Still remember how somebody broke in my car to steal an old pair of running shoes to get 5-10 $ for drugs!

I’d say they broke into your car to get the running shoes
————————

Because they are rich and can afford 1.5 mil house?

#120 Sheane Wallace on 12.19.15 at 12:09 am

#98 Leo Trollstoy on 12.18.15 at 10:16 pm

They/The FED probably will raise at least twice next year.

#121 young & foolish on 12.19.15 at 12:24 am

“Quite true. Grandpa did not go quite far enough there.
Buying Real Estate at the right price is for the long haul.”

He never advocated chasing bells and whistles … Just an immigrant opportunist in the right place at the right time. Now our go-to guy for everything RE related.

#122 Longterm on 12.19.15 at 12:46 am

#101 Dave L on 12.18.15 at 10:21 pm

An after tax savings rate of 30-30% is pretty good. Well done. But I think you can do better. From 2002-2009 my wife and I saved 55% of net income living in London (UK) while partying, travelling 6 weeks per year etc. We were grossing a combined $100-140k during that period. This set us up pretty well. We paid off student loans and became debt free, saved and invested just over $200k on top of that and then went travelling for 14 months around the world which only cost us about $32k, while out investments earned about $19k of that back so 14 months of travel, 9 months of which was in expensive countries only cost us $13K ofour capital.

Scrutinize your spending and really aim to squeeze out every penny. In hindsight I think we could have pushed the savings above 60% to maybe even 65%, though that would have cut into my extensive pub time too much and dampened my experience. Save like that for a decade – don’t let your espenses rise with your incomes, rather keep upping the savings rate – invest it well and you may be able to retire, or choose whether you work and on what and how much.

The magic number is accumulate a portfolio of 25X your annual expenses. This will give you a safe withdrawal rate of 4% plus 3% for inflation so you need to average 7% return, which isn’t too hard with a balanced portfolio.

#123 BC_Doc on 12.19.15 at 1:57 am

101 Dave L on 12.18.15 at 10:21 pm
“My wife and I make about $100K combined per year, so about $70K after tax. We rent and manage to save about $20-$25K per year after tax. Is that ok?”
*********************************************

I’m a physician, which means there’s no pension waiting for me. As a DIY investor, I’ve had to read, educate myself, and figure a lot of this out for myself.

My thoughts on the ideal savings rate:

The folks who set up the RRSP program, in my opinion, have the magic number. Take 18% of your gross income every year from the time you start working until the time you retire (18-65 if you skip university and head right into the work force out of high school, 22-65 if you go the university root). Take this 18%, invest it wisely in a low cost, balanced investment account– contribute 18% of your gross income faithfully year in and year out, and at the end of your working career, you’ll have enough wealth to retire in relative comfort (consistent with the earnings you made over your working career).

Where do TFSAs fit into this? If you’re earn a lower income, instead of putting 18% of your gross income into your RRSPs, put 18% of your net income into your TFSA. The outcome should be similar.

If you are fortunate enough not to live in interesting times, and Mr. Market treats you well, your investment account may grow large enough earlier to retire before 65. Save more than 18% year in and year out from age 18– ditto, if Mr. Market cooperates, you may be able to retire early.

Short answer: You and your wife are doing a fantastic job of saving. Well done.

#124 Neville Trade on 12.19.15 at 2:18 am

Starve the Beast…stop Millenials and other idiots from handing over their hard earned money to real estate gluttons and the whole quivering mess will melt into the storm drain. These two kids are lucky they have a suite at $1000 p/m and the freedom to save and walk out the door at any time if better offers come along or they want to buy small backpacks and live life for a few years before she bloats up after seven kids drop and he’s a bald doofus that no other woman will ever look at. Getting sucked in by the ‘sexy’ advertising is what got us the Liberal Albatross hung around our necks, you don’t want that in your personal life.

#125 Tom from Mississauga on 12.19.15 at 2:18 am

Negative GDP in September, negative Manu and Whole sales in October, November negative jobs and Oshawa Camaro production lost. November inflation however up. This is the worst stagflation I can remember. Does it even matter if the BoC raises the rate or cuts it?

#126 Frank on 12.19.15 at 2:27 am

Paul Krugman from 2005. Replace a few cities with Canadian counterparts and it is eerily similar to where we are today:

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/08/opinion/that-hissing-sound.html

He was 3 years early. I wouldn’t call that insight. Just like if Canadian housing crashes no sane person should call Garth an oracle. Say something long enough and eventually you’re bound to be true.

I expect Dec, Jan and Feb to be new records in the 604. Things may slow in the spring.

#127 Other Brother Darryl on 12.19.15 at 3:02 am

#101 Dave L on 12.18.15 at 10:21 pm
My wife and I make about $100K combined per year, so about $70K after tax. We rent and manage to save about $20-$25K per year after tax. Is that ok?
———————-
I’d say, that’s more than most with twice the income. Nothing sweeter or more powerful than a couple with shared financial goals. Well done.

#128 Vers on 12.19.15 at 3:08 am

The fed will raise rates quicker than expected, as they waited too long to confirm what they suspected. They need to take the punch bowl away, and can’t get it back to the kitchen fast enough. Raising rates from extremely low to that plus .25, still means money is too easy to borrow. That’s like keeping the punch bowl where it is, and just adding a bit of tonic water to it. The fed already knows they are fighting time, and six months behind schedule. This will become apparent to more and more banksters by early spring.

I can still remember when, after being wrong about the sitcom bubble for the last three years, an article got published in early 2000 about the burn rate of the newer sitcoms, and how fast these more venue companies were blowing their OPM. That was the sound of one hand clapping, and the whole world went from denial to understanding in a matter of months.

Bubbles, and perceptions can reverse quickly. All metrics indicate that yvr and 416 are in bubble territory, yet the ‘new way of looking at things’ is sticking to its knitting and assuming that irrational thinking is the new normal, here stay. That’s as foolish as paying $1b for a concept stock ipo based on eyeball numbers, hype, smoke and mirrors, and some Californian MBA selling shares in wewillallgetrich.com.

The is no new way of looking at RE, valuation will regress to normal traditional metrics. The best case scenario is for only a mild Fibonacci retrace of the last 2001-2015 price increase. That would mild, normal, time proven price correction movement. Behavioural economics. Your east van home that went from $325k to $1.125m should retrace 32-50% of the $800k rise. That means about a 25-33% haircut. From today’s heady times. That’s the optimistic view.

What the ‘new way of RE thinking’ is assuming is that the foreign money that has been driving Yvette and to a lesser extent TO values higher, wants to stay here, and not leave (acting like a Canadian). But that money has already shown that is internationally mobile. The houses are empty, a lot of purchases were simply speculation. A good place to park some capital. Such Capital can move out of an asset class just as fast or faster than it came in. It’s not loyal. Its not domestic. It’s not sticky, like a mortgaged homeowner in Calgary is.

The last year of price action, and outbidding each other to pay way over asking prices, has produced the type of tall white candle at the end of this run, that marks exhaustion on the chart. I’ll bet there’s more than one savy foreign buyer of yvr RE that has been watching the drop in the $can, and a flat $usd or yuan return even though their kits house is up 33% in the last two years, and is thinking ‘let’s get out’ before we start to cool down.

#129 Vers on 12.19.15 at 3:10 am

Edit. Dot coms.

#130 Other Brother Darryl on 12.19.15 at 3:35 am

If we’re worried about the impacts on big banks if/when we go to negative interest rates… Let’s not forget the billions in profit they post every year.

I was a long time RBC member back in 2003, until I grew tired of their fees. Dropped them and never looked back.

Big banks in Canada suck up alot of hard earned money, like a black hole (proof is the record profits). For that reason, negative interest rates could benefit Canadians

I don’t think housing in 604/416 will normalize any time soon. These are Canada’s biggest urban centres and demand will continue.

#131 Buy? Curious? on 12.19.15 at 4:37 am

Garth, are you the canadian Donald Trump?

#132 Love my Kia on 12.19.15 at 4:43 am

#95 IHCTD9 on 12.18.15 at 9:55 pm
*********************
I am also in Ontario and hate Winnie with a passion, so agreed. We have more debt than Greece, but being the teacher that she is, she knows everything.

I would still give T2 a chance, anything right now is better than what we just had federally. I give T2 credit at the very least an attempt at openness and trying to fix the housing bubble. Baby steps……..

#133 nubbers on 12.19.15 at 5:11 am

Rick @7

It sounds like you need a new wife, not a new house. I don’t think you have long to wait to find out who was right.

#134 wade on 12.19.15 at 5:53 am

Hahaha…..ya biches….I saved lotsa dimes and seein how it’s so slow up in oil country I figured my time would be better spent somewhere warm

#135 NoName on 12.19.15 at 6:09 am

Uber like real estate service+s coming to town.

http://www.betaboston.com/news/2015/12/17/can-home-buying-be-brought-into-the-digitial-age/

#136 Deb on 12.19.15 at 6:38 am

On the revenue side of things, the federal government will, unfortunately, increase the GST in the spring of 2016 to 6%, followed by an additional increase in 2017 to 7%. Spreading the tax pain as broadly as possible seems to be one of the few options available to pay for the increase in spending/investment in the next few years.

#137 sorethumb on 12.19.15 at 7:42 am

luv the old guy/oil patch dude pic and being scrutinized for no savings from the hey day of yesterday’s oil bonanza. it is tru a lot of oil patch workers where living the dream and no savings. price of real estate chewed up most of their earnings. hell, even tim Horton workers were making $15/hr to pay for the high rents. my first thought was the alberta and federal gov’t would also need a good hug. they were raped by the big oil companies for not paying their fair share of royalties , enjoying the big oil boom party so much that they did not save a dime, and now looking real stupid and incompetent. yep, government at its best blaming anyone or anything for their incompetence. hell, the oil companies still enjoying stolen money from us the consumers when we go to the pumps. the govt’ needs the tax dollars from the inflated gas prices so they would never do anything rein in on the oil companies price gouging of gas.

#138 heloguy on 12.19.15 at 8:41 am

“Either people aren’t desperate (yet) or they put so little down that they have to keep the price up to cover the lien.”

Ding ding ding ding, We have a winner!!!!!

#139 earthboundmisfit on 12.19.15 at 8:56 am

@#7Rick
You don’t provide a whole lot of information, making your question somewhat difficult. My $0.02 worth ….. sell, NOW. Rent. Max out RRSPs and TFSAs for both of you. Invest remainder yourself – DIY through an on line broker with a balanced portfolio of ETFs (tons of suggestions, here and elsewhere) and it’s not rocket science – educate your spousal unit on things financial. You sound like a reasonably intelligent chap, and likely quite capable of implementing this strategy but, if you lack the cojones, call The Man who flogs this blog.

#140 crossbordershopper on 12.19.15 at 9:23 am

When the Tim’s dollar gets down to 62.5 cents, which i think will be the bottom, its $1.60 conversion.
in ontario in 2016, the marginal tax rate at 220,000 is over 53%.
so anyone who can and should pack their bags and work in the usa. their economy is getting better, i have seen wages there about the same as here, but with a better currency, lower taxes and lower cost of living across the board. like gas $1.87 a gallon, why did i fill up at 94.2 cents canadian a litre. Canada is a controlled scam, if your over 65 great, go have your coffee at tim’s with all the old people chatting up a storm about nothing. or if your 45, go to the usa, in a couple years, you will own a home outright, since it was 140k to buy anyway in most areas. and even 60k usa is a good life, not great, but good. everything is less, car insurance, mortgage deductibility, gas prices, etc etc.
simply win, by leaving the looser country we live in. 90 percent of canadians live within 100 miles of the border. and if it doesnt work out for whatever reason, you come back to socialist utopia called canada where you can rent an apartment next to the Serian refugee. They just show up and have the same rights and perks as you. Being Canadian is the best of both worlds, access to the greatest country in the world, but if it doesnt work, you become a bumb in canada and winter in cuba, well untill the yanks overrun the place so go get a place now. pizza hut and walmart will be running cuba in 10 years you wont recognize the place, but you will almost be dead by then so it doesnt matter. enjoy the sun in the meantime.

#141 Nanaimo Bar on 12.19.15 at 9:29 am

#96 ontheledge

“Garth – most of your posters are really just searching for investment advice that you can’t give.”

We know why we are here. The bigger question is, why are you here? We found this blog by googling, “Canada housing bubble”, not “Canada Real Estate to the moon”. Sometimes, the truth can hurt.

As far as trading, I say Canada should trade Garth Turner to the US for Pamela Anderson. We need a guy like Garth Turner in the US to help us navigate the waters.

#142 Westernman on 12.19.15 at 9:46 am

sorethumb @ # 137
Wake up drone – the oil companies are not ” stealing ” money from you at the pumps, the reason fuel costs what it does is the same reason everything costs much more than it should – that is huge, bloated, inefficient, wasteful and corrupt government taxing ( now that is real theft ) the living shite out of you. The vast majority of the cost of fuel is TAXES, idiot…
And the debt slaves and tax serfs go to the polls every few years and vote for more of it…

#143 Ontario's Left Coast on 12.19.15 at 10:03 am

#19 Freedom First on 12.18.15 at 6:30 pm

And, I help others out of the kindness of my heart, not from any fabricated societal obligation. My life, my rules.

I’m glad you like to help others… Can you please help me understand why you feel the need to post the exact same comment every single night?

#144 Buy or rent on 12.19.15 at 10:07 am

It is interesting all the ringside advisors on this blog.
In case you missed my post, I have $100,000 earning 5% I pay rent $2,300 a month. I live in Vancouver.
I am looking at a condo, taxes, strata fees and a 300,000 mortgage @ 1,700 a month. So it’s cheaper to buy.

To Rick do the analysis, if you sell how much will you have left, and then how much can you rent for the same.

I have said on here many many times so what if houses drop 50% you live in the house 25 years you will be fine.
its all about your comfort level.

Anyway no one can predict the future unless you say it for years, then eventually you will get it right.

Garth gives lots of advice and he is right, but for the majority of Canadians he is wrong. The simple reason is Canadians do not save and invest. The spend and buy houses.

The majority of people have no money, because they think like you. They ascribe no value to downpayments. do not factor in closing or selling costs, ignore property taxes, insurance and strata fees, along with maintenance and endless renos. All paid for with non-deductible dollars. Oh, and did I mention potential illiquidity during economic downturns, plus loss of mobility? Owning a home, for many, is a recipe for monotony and penury. — Garth

#145 Daisy Mae on 12.19.15 at 10:09 am

#117: “And also consider that a woman’s fertility falls off a cliff after about age 30….”

*****************

Hardly. Many women start their families while well into their forties.

#146 Leo Trollstoy on 12.19.15 at 10:37 am

#145 Daisy Mae on 12.19.15 at 10:09 am

That still doesn’t dispute the fact that women’s fertility falls off a cliff after 30.

Hopefully the dad is younger.

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/02/27/health/mental-illness-risk-higher-for-children-of-older-parents-study-finds.html?referer=&_r=0

Not a fertility blog. — Garth

#147 For those about to flop... on 12.19.15 at 10:39 am

O.k. since the boss has the day off I will try to get something going.
Hypothetical question …you are inviting 3 people over to your house this holiday period.Who are your 3 choices.
I will go for a mix of interesting stories and a good laugh with these 3 gentlemen.
1) Garth Turner
2) Anderson Cooper
3) Ricky Gervais

Over to you guys and gals…

#148 John Prine on 12.19.15 at 10:43 am

29 Why Why Jay on 12.18.15 at 6:51 pm
I was attempting to do my part in helping an oil patch worker by truck shopping on Calgary craigslist and kijiji. I thought for sure I could find some smoking deals, but nothing popped out. Plenty of listings, just none good enough to buy a ticket to YYC.
_____________________________________________

While comparing my new Nissan truck with a fellow shoppers in a grocery parking lot yesterday he commented that he got a really good buy on the 2015 model from an oil patch worker who was forced to sell, this is on Vancouver Island.

Interesting the hate on for T2 here these days, we seem to hate him for being friendly, his looks, his wealth, policies etc…It seems just like yesterday even Cons were saying how much they hated Harpo, I don’t think any politician is going to be able to fix anything, have to leave to the world economy. Enjoy life, we have it pretty good here.

#149 Leo Trollstoy on 12.19.15 at 10:43 am

#103 HFT Dude on 12.18.15 at 10:37 pm

Krugman is a liberal hack and Obama is his God.

He’s been wrong as much as anyone.

#150 robert james on 12.19.15 at 10:49 am

For the dog people …………………………

Thank you. Will feature this tomorrow. — Garth

#151 Investorz on 12.19.15 at 10:50 am

SantaClaus gave us the middle finger:

SP500 = 2005
TSX = 13000

2016 will be a year where those with high cash flow will be able to buy assets cheaper, because pessimism is growing and money just got more expensive. Beware of companies with high level of debt.

#152 Broke Dick on 12.19.15 at 10:56 am

For Leo Trollstoy.
http://www.theguardian.com/science/head-quarters/2014/feb/25/internet-trolls-are-also-real-life-trolls

“trolls are, by far, more likely to have narcissistic, Machiavellian, psychopathic, and are also chronic masturbaters”

#153 CJBob on 12.19.15 at 11:01 am

I agree with Garth on everything on this post except that the solution to the (likely) housing bubble is higher interest rates. We need low rates with the economy struggling, what we need are increased rules around mortgages, amortization, mortgage insurance, etc.

#154 TurnerNation on 12.19.15 at 11:22 am

Canada is awash with “education” opportunities. UBC expansion in Kelowna. Ryerson into the 905 area. (Their downtown TO campus is chock full.)

People spending 30-50k on an obed. Cert. Where they all going to find white collar jobs paying 40-80k?
Government? Banking and insurance?

In other news there’s a ton of new chain restaurants in Toronto with need of staff. Cactus Club anyone? Carl’s Jr, Chipotle?

#155 liquidincalgary on 12.19.15 at 11:22 am

MSM-Free Zone on 12.18.15 at 6:58 pm

“……They are also relatively poor and uneducated. The increase from a decade ago was led by debtors whose highest education was high school, suggesting they could struggle to find decent jobs in a weaker economy……’
_________________________

In Calgary, the Lambo dealership beneath the Calgary tower, the tallest building at the time, folded into receivership.

===============================================

untrue.

Troll

#156 paul on 12.19.15 at 11:35 am

#145 Daisy Mae on 12.19.15 at 10:09 am

#117: “And also consider that a woman’s fertility falls off a cliff after about age 30….”

*****************

Hardly. Many women start their families while well into their forties
———————————————————-
Here that FREEDOM 1st
Sounds like she is proposing to you.

#157 jess on 12.19.15 at 11:40 am

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-18/jpmorgan-pays-267-million-to-settle-conflict-of-interest-claims

july 15
http://www.nanex.net/aqck2/4703.html
18-Mar-2015 ~ U.S. Dollar Flash Crash

The Wall Street Code (Marije Meerman, VPRO)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEAGdwHXfLQ&feature=youtu.be

#158 JimH on 12.19.15 at 11:41 am

#147 For those about to flop… on 12.19.15 at 10:39 am
“… Hypothetical question …you are inviting 3 people over to your house this holiday period.Who are your 3 choices.”
==================================
Michio Kaku
Neil deGrasse Tyson
Richard Dawkins

#159 Doug in London on 12.19.15 at 11:42 am

How does spending all of your money on useless shit, keeping up with a certain image of being “successful”, buying/renting something you can’t afford, and saving no money fit with the mentality that you only live once? It all seems so stressful. I figure that not buying useless shit I don’t really want or need, then putting the money towards what I DO want, including freedom is more consistent with the idea you only live once. I remember in the past, within minutes of getting a layoff notice, I would be delighted, and planning another trip and sleeping well because I’m not worried about money. Now, I’m pretty much retired and can do what I want, again because I didn’t spend all of my money on useless shit, keeping up with a certain image of being “successful”. Remember that last winter from Hell? I didn’t and have absolutely no idea what you’re talking about, it was pleasantly warm to hot where I was, in Thailand. Hey, you only live once.

Garth:
I like that picture about supporting an oil patch worker, quite funny!

#160 Windsurfer12 on 12.19.15 at 11:47 am

Garth, when the BOC raises rates even by a miniscule fraction, the tide will go out and we’ll see who is naked. Crying men will be in the streets.

I can’t see prime rate increases in this country any time soon, but that’s a personal opinion. I do have a relatively small mortgage on a rental property and I just renewed at the variable rate for the first time ever.

#161 BG on 12.19.15 at 11:56 am

The reasonable, rational middle class savers have been screwed and no correction will fix that.
Because a mild one will not make them break even with the indebted real estate owners, and a big one will screw everybody, including the savers.

Of course some indebted owners will suffer, and some savers will be better off.

But overall, we savers lost the battle.

#162 kommykim on 12.19.15 at 12:02 pm

RE: #129 Vers on 12.19.15 at 3:10 am
Edit. Dot coms.

LOL! Sitcom bubble! We may have a reality TV bubble though. I can’t wait for that one to crash.

#163 Julie K. on 12.19.15 at 12:08 pm

#147 For those about to flop…

In no particular order and to ensure Mr. al-Baghadi and his Daesh thugs, all suffering from extreme gynophobia, have a truly memorable holiday season:

Angela Merkel
Janet Yellen
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi

#164 Retired Boomer WI on 12.19.15 at 12:08 pm

#121 Young & Foolish

Grandpa was an immigrant? So was mine. Mine had a love for the land more than the buildings explains why he owned a farm. The kids were all small town people, not city dwellers.

I have difficulty relating to the extreme high prices in Canada, and parts of the US. No ‘value’ attached that I can discern in high priced city property. But, I am a small town hick., and understand that.

It is really about where you feel comfortable, your needs, and your desires. You can satisfy them all, in due time.
The lack of planning, and patience today is amazing!

Everybody acting as if their life is on a deadline…relax you’ll get there.

#101 Dave L.

You are doing very well! I would continue on that path for a long time. (Don’t know your ages) but try to save 20-25 times your current income for the retirement stream of your earnings today at retirement time.

Your doing it correct.

#165 kommykim on 12.19.15 at 12:11 pm

RE:

#142 Westernman on 12.19.15 at 9:46 am
Wake up drone – the oil companies are not ” stealing ” money from you at the pumps

When the companies pay very little royalties to the government and disappear when the environmental cleanup is due, they ARE stealing from us.

#166 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.19.15 at 12:47 pm

@#114 BC Guy
“There is a solution to this problem: land reform. Tax the large land owners until they sell and are forced to subdivide. 200,000 hectares of land owned by US billionaire and young Canadians are paying $1000 to live in basements.

Time for a revolution in this country.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Still flogging that dead, rented mule eh BC Guy? Give it up. Its a beast that wont walk.

As for educated people renting basement suites being “satisfied”……perhaps they know something you dont?
OR the’re more educated than vous?
OR they arent as fixated on acreage as you seem to be…

#167 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.19.15 at 12:51 pm

@#101 Dave
“My wife and I make about $100K combined per year, so about $70K after tax. We rent and manage to save about $20-$25K per year after tax. Is that ok?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The fact that you’re saving anything is a better start than most Canadians.
How you invest that money is another subject. Hopefully taking advantage of the financial information on this blog and investing in RRSP, TSFA , etc and not stuffing it under the mattress……

#168 Ronaldo on 12.19.15 at 12:53 pm

#152 Broke Dick on 12.19.15 at 10:56 am

“trolls are, by far, more likely to have narcissistic, Machiavellian, psychopathic, and are also chronic masturbaters”

And likely suffer from Dickdoo.

#169 prairiegopher on 12.19.15 at 12:56 pm

Why are you guys all complaining. Sing along with Turdeau as you carry all of your belongings out of your now foreclosed home. Merry Christmas to one and all!

#170 paul on 12.19.15 at 1:26 pm

Boy we are afraid of HAM coming to buy all of our housing.

We thought they were the Greater Fool

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/15/canadians-are-selling-cans-of-fresh-air-to-china.html

#171 waiting on the westcoast on 12.19.15 at 1:42 pm

#147 For those about to flop… on 12.19.15 at 10:39 am
“… Hypothetical question …you are inviting 3 people over to your house this holiday period.Who are your 3 choices.”

Elon Musk
A child soldier from Somalia
George Soros

#172 waiting on the westcoast on 12.19.15 at 1:49 pm

Oh my God, I have raised an entitled millennial…

My eldest is 19 and is moving out for some freedom. He is dropping out of college and going to work full-time as a bartender. He says he may consider going into heavy duty mechanic program (which I think is also good – not as good as engineering but somebody needs to fix stuff). Proud that he wants to be his own man (even if deluded with the bartender thing) but worried for his future if he doesn’t move forward with some ambition…

The good news is that he hasn’t grown a beard yet… ;-)

#173 TurnerNation on 12.19.15 at 1:54 pm

The Great One’s home is for sale (in real dollars):

http://www2.tsn.ca/bardown/Story.aspx?Wayne+Gretzky%27s+house+could+be+yours+for+a+cool+%248.2+million&id=568268

http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/129-Hampstead-Ct_Thousand-Oaks_CA_91361_M10371-08630

#174 Doug in London on 12.19.15 at 1:59 pm

@double double, post #16:
If anyone’s looking for a capital gain, look to buy what’s on sale now like pipeline companies, preferred share ETFs, REITs, and oil company ETFs. Even the last option, the oil company ETFs, has a much better chance of delivering a good return going forward than those GROSSLY OVERPRICED houses in YVR.

#175 match on 12.19.15 at 2:07 pm

#152 Broke Dick on 12.19.15 at 10:56 am

For Leo Trollstoy.
http://www.theguardian.com/science/head-quarters/2014/feb/25/internet-trolls-are-also-real-life-trolls

“trolls are, by far, more likely to have narcissistic, Machiavellian, psychopathic, and are also chronic masturbaters”

Sound about right, based on his posts. I would question the ability for the last part in this particular case.

#176 saskatoon on 12.19.15 at 2:09 pm

#165 kommykim

government taxation = theft.

you have “infinite money” psychosis.

sad.

#177 LP on 12.19.15 at 2:12 pm

#158 JimH on 12.19.15 at 11:41 am
“… Hypothetical question …you are inviting 3 people over to your house this holiday period.Who are your 3 choices.”
***********************

Conrad Black
A S Currie (best male friend who isn’t my husband)
Steven Pakin

#178 Hope & Change (Canada) on 12.19.15 at 2:33 pm

@#101 Dave
“My wife and I make about $100K combined per year, so about $70K after tax. We rent and manage to save about $20-$25K per year after tax. Is that ok?

I would invest that money in education so that I can double or maybe even triple the combined after tax income.

Then, if you can, go down to the US and earn it in US$ as long as the C$ is doing so poorly.

Don’t worry about the stock market. You have 10/1 better odds at doubling your salaries than doubling your money in the stock market.

#179 For those about to flop... on 12.19.15 at 2:48 pm

#147 For those about to flop… on 12.19.15 at 10:39 am
“… Hypothetical question …you are inviting 3 people over to your house this holiday period.Who are your 3 choices.”
////////////////////////////////////////

Some interesting people invited over so far.
There are no wrong or right answers ,just thought it was a cool way of finding out what you guys are into and who you look up to.
Keep it going if you have two minutes to spare.

#180 Lobster Man on 12.19.15 at 2:53 pm

Hi Garth,
You’ve often said: no ads. How about allowing this one thru, as an exception:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pui0gJmriLc
LM

#181 Sean on 12.19.15 at 3:22 pm

“trolls are, by far, more likely to have narcissistic, Machiavellian, psychopathic, and are also chronic masturbaters”

Oh come now, they must also have some negative qualities…

#182 BG on 12.19.15 at 3:33 pm

#172 waiting on the westcoast on 12.19.15 at 1:49 pm

Better do that at 19 than later.
He will understand the value of work and money while he is still young enough to go back to school if he wants to.

#183 LP on 12.19.15 at 3:36 pm

#177 LP on 12.19.15 at 2:12 pm

And I promise to spell Steve’s last name correctly when I send his invitation.

#184 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.19.15 at 4:04 pm

@#173 Turnernation.

Perhaps he’s just paying off the wife’s(alleged) gambling debts………..

#185 TurnerNation on 12.19.15 at 4:13 pm

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDCAD&tf=mo

Not looking good for CAD or TSX. Let’s say .65 and TSX 12k? Accumulating HXD.TO my plan.

#186 Why Why Jay on 12.19.15 at 4:17 pm

@#144 Buy or rent

You have considered some of the costs, but not all (as Garth pointed out). One of my friends was taken aback when he had $12k of closing costs on his first place. My response,”Sounds about right.” I did my research on my first place. So those weren’t a surprise. Unless you’ve owned before you’ll have no idea about maintenance costs and Grant is comletely right about renovations. You are going to spend money.

One other thing I’ve seen with people that make the claim that it is cheaper to buy is the rental and the purchase property aren’t equal. If they rented what they are considering buying, then the rent would be lower. Not always the case, but I’ve seen it many times.

I’ll never buy another “property” without dirt. Dirt is in limited supply in major cities and will be worth something (barring a zombie apocalypse). The condo market has a much deeper bottom than freehold detached homes. One little hiccup and you have a glut of condos on the market. If you have to sell, you are competing against fire sale priced new stock. Even in a healthy market selling a couple year old condo is difficult. An old unit may have depreciation factored in, but then you have the problems of an older building which make it less desirable. Condos suck.

If you insist on buying one l, at least buy a desirable unit (top, corner with views etc). That eay when it comes time to sell your unit isn’t a mediocre box among a myriad of mediocre boxes where only aggressive pricing will set you apart.

#187 BS on 12.19.15 at 4:23 pm

December, 2003 (~ when Chretien left) = $390B
February, 2006 (~ when Martin was defeated and Harper became PM) = $377B

November, 2015 (~ when Harper left) = $650.1B

Amazing numbers if you actually sit down and look at them, just how bad Harper was, on the spending front, compared to the previous Liberal regime.

You are comparing apples to oranges. The previous Liberal regime was in power during a time when the world economy was booming. Harper had to manage through the biggest world wide economic collapse since the great depression. If you compare Canada under Harper to the US under Obama, Canada did very well. The US government debt increased significantly more per capita.

On the other hand we now have T2 in power and Canada and the US are going in opposite directions. The last time the CAD was this low the Liberals were in power. See a pattern? At some point T2 has to take responsibility.

#188 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.19.15 at 4:25 pm

@#181 Sean.
Good one.
I forget who once commented about the emergence of porn on the then brand new internet but he stated,

” Well its either going to create a generation of perverts or a plethora of one handed typists…….”

#189 BS on 12.19.15 at 4:42 pm

HFT Dude on 12.18.15 at 10:37 pm
Paul Krugman from 2005. Replace a few cities with Canadian counterparts and it is eerily similar to where we are today:

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/08/opinion/that-hissing-sound.html

An excellent article written pre RE collapse in the US. I wanted to point out at the time how Krugman knew it was a bubble about to collapse:

Krugman: “Of course, some people still deny that there’s a housing bubble. Let me explain how we know that they’re wrong.

One piece of evidence is the sense of frenzy about real estate, which irresistibly brings to mind the stock frenzy of 1999.”

Yet people seem to think the frenzy in RE markets like Vancouver will somehow continue forever and support prices. Sorry Yaley you are about to get a very expensive education.

#190 SMA on 12.19.15 at 5:00 pm

#187 BS

“On the other hand we now have T2 in power and Canada and the US are going in opposite directions. The last time the CAD was this low the Liberals were in power. See a pattern? At some point T2 has to take responsibility.”

Even though I haven’t voted for the Liberals, you do realize T2 was sworn in on November 4, 2015. Harper destroyed Canadians in every way possible, while helping out his Calgary Oil Patch friends!

#191 BS on 12.19.15 at 5:00 pm

Buy or rent on 12.19.15 at 10:07 am
It is interesting all the ringside advisors on this blog.
In case you missed my post, I have $100,000 earning 5% I pay rent $2,300 a month. I live in Vancouver.
I am looking at a condo, taxes, strata fees and a 300,000 mortgage @ 1,700 a month. So it’s cheaper to buy.

You pay $2300 rent for a place worth $300K? You are paying at least double the market rate for rent then. Only a realtor could come up with such a scenario.

In the real world I pay $2200 per month for a place my landlord paid $1 million for 7 years ago. In that $2200 my landlord pays $800 per month maintenance fees and property taxes. He nets $1400 per month or $16,800 per year on a $1 million investment. He also gets the privilege of paying special assessments. Do the buy vs rent on that for me.

#192 Mark on 12.19.15 at 5:09 pm

“You are comparing apples to oranges. The previous Liberal regime was in power during a time when the world economy was booming. Harper had to manage through the biggest world wide economic collapse since the great depression.”

I’d suggest that the global economic collapse should have reduced the cost of government, not increased it. Harper should have been out there aggressively cutting the cost of government so that resources would be available to drive a legitimate private sector recovery. Instead, the cost of government spiraled higher under his rule, and bailouts were handed to industries which should have been resolved through orderly debt to equity conversions.

A suitably motivated government could have easily reduced the cost of government dramatically. The HR clerks in most of government receive hundreds of applicants, sometimes thousands, for each job they post. Simple labour market economics tells us that when this happens, the rational thing to do is lower compensation across the board. Yet Harper refused to do this, and raises were granted all around. We now have the spectacle of RCMP officers being paid nearly double the average compensation of Canadian workers. And the pension plans in the public service are gold-plated compared to most anything offered in the private sector. This is all stuff Harper could have addressed. Instead, he basically swept it all under the rug, let the public service roll over him and his government like a steamroller, and he wonders why his own traditional supporter base (who elected him on a platform of fiscal conservatism, and responsible government spending) significantly abandonded him.

#193 earthboundmisfit on 12.19.15 at 5:13 pm

Mahatma Ghandi
The Dalai Lama
John Lennon

#194 Ronaldo on 12.19.15 at 5:20 pm

A bit of humour for the dogs to lighten things up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y6NS77HLjEE

#195 Love my Kia on 12.19.15 at 5:27 pm

#187 BS
You are comparing apples to oranges. The previous Liberal regime was in power during a time when the world economy was booming. Harper had to manage through the biggest world wide economic collapse since the great depression. If you compare Canada under Harper to the US under Obama, Canada did very well. The US government debt increased significantly more per capita.
********************************
BS on your BS. Canada did well during this time because of banking regulation policies the liberals put in place. Before the US banking crisis, Harper was advocating for a US style hands off policy. Again, conservatives are trying to rewrite history.

#196 For those about to flop... on 12.19.15 at 5:36 pm

#193 earthboundmisfit on 12.19.15 at 5:13 pm
Mahatma Ghandi
The Dalai Lama
John Lennon

///////////////////////////////////////
Umm, I hate to be the bearer of bad news but ….

#197 No debt on 12.19.15 at 5:39 pm

Freedom First
Lilloet guy(where the hell is he)
Smoking Man
Lol

#198 Smoking Man on 12.19.15 at 5:49 pm

Paris climate summit explained.

http://www.therebel.media/_bizarre_see_what_s_really_in_the_paris_climate_agreement

#199 Sam the Sham on 12.19.15 at 5:56 pm

#7 Rick

Although it may not be time for someone to buy a new house, especially with a small down payment and a tight budget, the idea of selling a 90% paid for house to rent and invest is just plain nuts. Stay where you are, pay off the mortgage and then start investing. There may be a correction in housing, but in the long run owning a paid for house is the best course. It what I did and so should you!

#200 csarichardo on 12.19.15 at 6:06 pm

Switzerland has declining and negative short term interest rates yet their mortgage rates are positive and rising ?!

http://www.businessinsider.com/unintended-consequences-negative-interest-rates-switzerland-2015-12?IR=T

I think only a strong currency can go negative rates ? My point being I agree rates are rising from here.

#201 BS on 12.19.15 at 6:13 pm

I’d suggest that the global economic collapse should have reduced the cost of government, not increased it. Harper should have been out there aggressively cutting the cost of government so that resources would be available to drive a legitimate private sector recovery.

Any reason why T2 should not ‘reduce the cost of government and not increase it’?

Why is T2 not ‘out there aggressively cutting the cost of government so that resources would be available to drive a legitimate private sector recovery’?

Bottom line Harper had his faults but T2 is and will be worse. During the Harper era Canada did well compared to other nations with respect to government debt. Under the T2 era Canada is blowing its brains out on spending and government debt when other countries are reigning in spending and debt.

#202 kommykim on 12.19.15 at 6:16 pm

RE:

#176 saskatoon on 12.19.15 at 2:09 pm
#165 kommykim
government taxation = theft.
you have “infinite money” psychosis.

For practical purposes money is infinite. Governments can “print” as much as they wish and inflate away their debts. By understating inflation, western nations have been doing just that. The average after tax monthly salary in Japan is 270,000 yen and a dozen eggs costs 225 yen. In Canada, notice how the one and two dollar bills have been relegated to coinage status.

#203 Nanaimo Bar on 12.19.15 at 6:36 pm

Garth. I thought this photo might be helpful down the road. Great Work. Keep going. God Bless.

http://www.tomorrowoman.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/wooldress.jpg

#204 espressobob on 12.19.15 at 6:43 pm

#96 ontheledge

Trading like Jesse Livermore? Um OK?

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/09/legendary-trader-jesse-livermore.asp

Lets take a look at a couple of ETFs like energy and PMs.

http://www.blackrock.com/ca/individual/en/products/239839/ishares-sptsx-capped-energy-index-etf

http://www.blackrock.com/ca/individual/en/products/239848/ishares-sptsx-global-gold-index-etf

Pull up the long term versions, and ask yourself how the hell do you play this? Entry and exit points? Good luck.

Besides, broad based ETFs already reflect sector weightings based on their market capitalization.

Why bother ‘rolling the dice’?

#205 Tony on 12.19.15 at 6:52 pm

Re: #7 Rick on 12.18.15 at 6:13 pm

It depends what you invest in. Right now day trading is all there is unless gold and silver have finally bottomed out. My call is for commodities to bottom out around April or May next year. The U.S. dollar should top out at the same time. I put the odds at 50/50 for one more rate increase in America next year before they reduce rates. The day trading patterns could change dramatically leading into the U.S. election and do a full 360 after the U.S. election. Spreads and straddles are safer and may be all that’s left. The best advice may be to wait for a clear signal Obama is going to lose the November election and load up on oil itself that is oil as a commodity when that’s made evident. Remember at least 95 percent of the people will wait for at least a 15 percent drop before listing their house. That’s how it always works.

Obama to lose the coming election? Yeah, pretty sure he won’t be around after it. You need to find a self-help blog for day-trading tinfoil psychotics. — Garth

#206 BobC on 12.19.15 at 6:54 pm

#165 kommykim on 12.19.15 at 12:11 pm
RE:
#142 Westernman on 12.19.15 at 9:46 am
Wake up drone – the oil companies are not ” stealing ” money from you at the pumps
When the companies pay very little royalties to the government and disappear when the environmental cleanup is due, they ARE stealing from us.
————————————————————–
Exactly how much in royalties to the government did you want to add to the prices we pay?

#207 bouncyloonie on 12.19.15 at 6:59 pm

Mark

I know you are bullish on the loonie….this has gotta hurt! When do you think there will be a rebound?

#208 Tony on 12.19.15 at 7:15 pm

#12 Smoking Man on 12.18.15 at 6:23 pm

Just like what we saw Wednesday (when the FED and bankers put the short squeeze on the suckers with puts expiring on the Friday on purpose) the FED and bankers seem to be protecting at 17,000 level DOW and the 2,000 level for the S&P 500. In an election year no matter how bad things get in America the jobs figures should be on the high side for at least the first 3 months of 2016 to back up the rate hike (make it look like the FED did the right thing) before they lower rates coming into the election. When Obama is gone negative rates will be a certainly in 2017.

You are beyond description. — Garth

#209 Daisy Mae on 12.19.15 at 7:23 pm

#123: “Take this 18%, invest it wisely in a low cost, balanced investment account– contribute 18% of your gross income faithfully year in and year out…”

********************

The Wealthy Barber recommended 10% — but 18% is good. The important thing is to take this percentage off the top — NOT after the expenses are taken care of.

“Pay yourself first.”

#210 Bobs ur uncle on 12.19.15 at 7:32 pm

#147 For those about to flop… on 12.19.15 at 10:39 am

Love the question:

Jon Stewart
Louis CK
Dave Chappelle

“It’s a celebration b*tches!!”

If restricted to Canadians:

JT the Metrosexual Messiah [TM]
Stephen Harper, backbench MP
Andrew Coyne, to take the piss out of both of them.

#211 Daisy Mae on 12.19.15 at 7:33 pm

#133: “It sounds like you need a new wife, not a new house. I don’t think you have long to wait to find out who was right.”

*******************

Abit extreme. We don’t generally throw in the towel that easily — whatever happened to commitment? You know…”till death do us part” and all that?

#212 Smoking Man on 12.19.15 at 7:33 pm

Obama to lose the coming election? Yeah, pretty sure he won’t be around after it. You need to find a self-help blog for day-trading tinfoil psychotics. — Garth

Give him the link to mine

#213 Yeah baby who luvs ya on 12.19.15 at 7:34 pm

Obama to lose the coming election? Yeah, pretty sure he won’t be around after it. You need to find a self-help blog for day-trading tinfoil psychotics. — Garth
—————-
Oh surely that is here, is it not?

#214 For those about to flop... on 12.19.15 at 7:45 pm

#210 Bobs ur uncle on 12.19.15 at 7:32 pm
#147 For those about to flop… on 12.19.15 at 10:39 am

Love the question:

Jon Stewart
Louis CK
Dave Chappelle

“It’s a celebration b*tches!!”

If restricted to Canadians:

JT the Metrosexual Messiah [TM]
Stephen Harper, backbench MP
Andrew Coyne, to take the piss out of both of them.

///////////////////////////////////////
You know what, I was gonna go with Louis ck as well but I switched it with Ricky Gervais as I seen he was hosting the golden globes soon and would have some good material.
Thanks for the shoutout on the Metrosexual Messiah(TM) as well ,I think it suits him perfectly.Peace brother.

#215 paul on 12.19.15 at 7:45 pm

#202 kommykim on 12.19.15 at 6:16 pm

RE:

#176 saskatoon on 12.19.15 at 2:09 pm
#165 kommykim
government taxation = theft.
you have “infinite money” psychosis.

For practical purposes money is infinite. Governments can “print” as much as they wish and inflate away their debts. By understating inflation, western nations have been doing just that. The average after tax monthly salary in Japan is 270,000 yen and a dozen eggs costs 225 yen. In Canada, notice how the one and two dollar bills have been relegated to coinage status

———————————————————-

The five dollar bill will be gone within two years as well.
A toonie,lonnie,Finnie.

#216 Daisy Mae on 12.19.15 at 7:54 pm

#172: “….but worried for his future if he doesn’t move forward with some ambition…”

********************

Give him a couple of years. I experienced the same thing. These kids have a lot of growing up yet to do.

#217 kommykim on 12.19.15 at 7:58 pm

RE:

#206 BobC on 12.19.15 at 6:54 pm
When the companies pay very little royalties to the government and disappear when the environmental cleanup is due, they ARE stealing from us.
————————————————————–
Exactly how much in royalties to the government did you want to add to the prices we pay?

We can jack the rates up a lot more before they go out of business. Oil prices are international, so there would be no passing on of costs of the increases in royalties. (Most of the fuel in Canada comes from imported oil) In some cases it would be better for them to go out of business because when you factor in the taxpayer cost of cleaning up their mess, we are losing money as a nation.

#218 Exurban on 12.19.15 at 8:04 pm

#126 Frank

I’m working and commuting way more than I’d like in the Vancouver region. Here’s what I see on the ground. First, traffic on the roads is up in all areas and at all times. That’s on Highway 1, the Arthur Laing bridge, Highway 91, West Broadway, and the downtown peninsula. Second, the availability of parking is down, especially in central Vancouver, downtown, Richmond, and the Metrotown area in Burnaby.

Moving on to real estate, the number of For Sale signs is actually down, but when they do appear, the SOLD sticker is on there within a few days. This is in Coquitlam where I live and central Vancouver (Mount Pleasant/City Hall/Fairview where I work regularly). The number of For Lease signs on commercial property also seems to be down.

Moving on to employment, as mentioned the number of cars going to work has risen steadily from September to now. (How do I know they’re going to work? Because they’re on Highway 1 at 6:10 a.m.) People talk about the difficulty of getting good people for professional jobs and getting anybody reliable at all for casual work.

Everybody agrees the cost of living is going up and everybody agrees that a lot of people are in serious debt.

So, is a downturn coming? Maybe, but it’s not evident from anything I actually see.

#219 Leo Trollstoy on 12.19.15 at 8:07 pm

Mark

I know you are bullish on the loonie….this has gotta hurt! When do you think there will be a rebound?

It’s a 20 year trade

ROI = 0.00137% rate of return

#220 espressobob on 12.19.15 at 8:08 pm

There is help for Tony.

Seek the help of a professional or expand ones wardrobe.

http://www.ebay.ca/itm/Posey-Strait-Jacket-Heavy-Cotton-Canvas-1-Each-/111572422671?var=&hash=item19fa3c100f:m:mU3LZBr2rLg0Bv7jYKREtAA

#221 Leo Trollstoy on 12.19.15 at 8:11 pm

I see the JT crowd are desperately trying to hang on to being able to attach blame to the long-gone PCs.

Just accept your place in history.

NDP and Libs to preside over the worst economic collapse of the Alberta and Canadian economies.

Enjoy the show!

#222 young & foolish on 12.19.15 at 8:11 pm

I love the extreme views on this blog …. like Canada is going to implode, the loonie is going to be nearly worthless, and big city downtown properties will soon be “on sale” (get the popcorn ready as you wait to vulch on the sidelines … as if).

#223 young & foolish on 12.19.15 at 8:19 pm

“Governments can “print” as much as they wish and inflate away their debts.”

Exactly … and why real assets have their merits.

#224 TurnerNation on 12.19.15 at 8:24 pm

Rumor has it the elites are planning events for us Dec 25-26.

In other news I would not go long till 2016…

#225 Mark on 12.19.15 at 8:30 pm

“I know you are bullish on the loonie….this has gotta hurt! When do you think there will be a rebound?”

If I was a good market timer….well, let’s just say my life would be a bit different.

Having said that, if this swoon is temporary, as in, a 2008/2009-like collapse, the recovery might not take all that long. ~2 years later, the CAD$ was back over USD$1. Although oil and gas probably won’t be coming along for a ride back up to $100 anytime soon, housing led consumer spending deflation and vibrancy in the (Canadian-dominated) gold sector are likely to help CAD$ out. I don’t know, maybe QE4 as a short-term factor? US economy seems to be getting much worse over the past year or two and the deterioration appears to be worsening as of late.

My bullishness on the CAD$ is largely long-term. On account of Canada’s structural long-term trade surpluses, and the USA’s structural long-term trade deficits. Sort of an inversion of the factors which brought us the 63 cent CAD$ back in ~2000. But nothing ever moves in a straight line.

#226 joblo on 12.19.15 at 8:40 pm

“… Hypothetical question …you are inviting 3 people over to your house this holiday period.Who are your 3 choices.”

Garth Turner
Stephen Harper
Daisy Mae

#227 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 12.19.15 at 8:46 pm

NECROMANCERS OF THE WORLD UNITE!

You’ve nothing to lose but your misplaced confidence in the future of our imploding economic system, only to, some-day, regain your battered souls, by arising Phoenix-like from the your personal ashes of bankruptcy and into the sunlight of hope.

Or something like that…

Necromancy is the “art” of communing with the dead in order to foretell the future, or something like that.

That will be the last hopey-changey “comfort zone” for those indebted up the ying yang with mortgages and various other odious debts (all of which you plunged into to give you the impression that you are a mover and shaker in the current “indestructible” middle classes).

It is a sylph-like, phantom construct that now consigns you to the briny penurious financial deeps.

Good luck.

I wonder how many foolish Canadians, soaked to the gills with money lent to them by other equally vaporous financial fools (lenders), believe they can beat this clock and emerge unscathed.

Too many.

So we Canucks of Trudeau-istan continue on this fateful voyage.

Many hope that stock market fairytales and politically correct language will help dull the thudding, pounding emails/tweets from your paniky lenders and repo guys as they demand their tons of flesh when you are already stripped to the bone and can no longer “give”, er, I mean repay the unrepayable.

The meek HAVE aleady inherited the Earth. They are doing so now in droves: the renters, basement dwellers, under-spenders. They write to Garth, of “we’re so screwed”!

They are the winners.

The only downside to this new financial construct is that the rest of the economy, especially the shops both online and brick facades, will wilt and untold hundreds of thousands of poor souls will be rendered jobless. Thousands of jobs have already been lost.

Mr. Garth has been sounding the alarms but most still fail to listen or do anything if they do hear to the bells (they tolling for them). Necromancy indeed.

It will alarm you all when this financial cataclyism befalls us all. You have little notion.

It’ll come like a high-speed grain train pounding across our prairies and it’ll shake you to your very core. All around you will turn to dust and noise and confusion. You won’t know which way to turn.

If you don’t believe me, there are other factors, that are now driving this juggernaut: specifically two economic markers we ALL must acknowledge.

They are the WTI/Brent oil prices and the ever devolving Baltic Dry (world marine shipping) Index.

Falling energy prices and shipping rates tell the story of an ongoing and world-wide economic slowdown, which no amount of Quantitative Easing, or other financial jiggery-pokery, can turn around at this juncture.

The bullets have been fired, the “guns” are silent. Financial targets were missed, all of them.

We await our fates.

It shouldn’t have come to this, but it has.

This episode will be one for the history books: so many victims, so few winners…

#228 SWL1976 on 12.19.15 at 8:53 pm

Flop…

K’naan

Garth

A Hopi elder

Not all at the same time and in no particular order

#229 Brett on 12.19.15 at 9:10 pm

So what happened in Calgary real estate this week?

Exactly one year ago we looked at an attached home/condo. It had been listed at $629k and was just reduced to $609K

It did not sell. This week, exactly one year later it came back on the market after a three month absence (an oldie but a goodie…just like me) This time for $549k. And it is now empty-not even staged. Even though the identical unit beside had been listed for $525.

Next, our real estate agent emailed us. That morning she found out that her real estate office was closing. Actually the company had six offices-160 plus agent worked from those six offices.

The CREB actually forecast that house price in Calgary would drop by 2-3 percent. When CREB forcasts this you just know it is code for they really anticipate a 6-8 percent drop.

And finally, my wonderful, previously house horny spouse is now saying forget it, let’s go away for the winter and look and MAYBE look again in the spring. So that is what we plan to do.

#230 Russ on 12.19.15 at 9:12 pm

#141 Nanaimo Bar on 12.19.15 at 9:29 am

As far as trading, I say Canada should trade Garth Turner to the US for Pamela Anderson. We need a guy like Garth Turner in the US to help us navigate the waters.
===============================

Hey Nan,

Don’t you know that Pamela is Canadian too?

She was a Ladysmith girl… just down the road from Nanaimo.

I can tell you, in the ol’ days Ladysmith girls were fun and well worth the drive.

R

#231 Retired Boomer WI on 12.19.15 at 9:17 pm

Obama is done. Term limited by his re-election. Pick a new dweeb… The field of candidates is quite FULL.

Market was mostly noise this week, with expiring options, dodgy mutual fund redemptions etc. I’m in good shape not really worried. .25% rise is just a first step toward normal. It will take some time to get there. Not worried.

December selling could continue through New Years with Tax loss selling. We could also ave a nice bounce next week. I don’t know, and frankly, I don’t much care.

I hold good ETF’s, good index funds, good interest paying stocks, and other good interest paying bonds &preferreds.

I am not sweating the small crap. I have been watching the US presidential debates, and frankly, am really disappointed in the emptiness of the rhetoric. (sigh)
Is it any wonder western civilization seems to have lost its way? Or is this just the mad ravings of a geezer?

I can’t tell, but I can tell you this grizzled dude has his game plan set out, and it will work out fine. I am here for only a little while, not forever.

#232 Victor V on 12.19.15 at 9:17 pm

#65 Kothar – “Then this Poloz guy comes in from EDC and has not once warned people on debt accumulation.”

=======================

December 2014
Stephen Poloz says up to 30% overvalued housing big risk to economy
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/stephen-poloz-says-up-to-30-overvalued-housing-big-risk-to-economy-1.2867184

January, 2015
“The record-high evolution of [debt to income] is something which matters a lot to us because it makes the economy vulnerable to a shock,” Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said, adding the bank sees plunging oil prices as “exactly the kind of trigger we imagine.”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/poloz-risks-fuelling-overheated-housing-market-with-record-level-debt/article22569652/

June, 2015
“The vulnerability associated with household indebtedness is edging higher, and the overall risk to financial stability in Canada is slightly higher,” Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz warned.
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/debt/bank-of-canada-says-household-debt-housing-price-crash-remain-major-concern-for-economy

October 13, 2015
“It is not the role of monetary policy to protect individuals from making bad choices,” he said, adding that borrowers and lenders themselves are “the first line of defence” against those sorts of risks to the financial system…”I’m not trying to diminish the threat posed by elevated household debt. We are continuing to watch this closely,” Poloz said.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/stephen-poloz-says-bank-of-canada-not-responsible-for-record-debt-1.3268738

December 2015
Bank of Canada still wary rising debt, high home prices could lead to housing market ‘shock’
http://www.nationalpost.com/bank+canada+still+wary+rising+debt+high+home+prices+could+lead+housing+market+shock/11590990/story.html

#233 DON on 12.19.15 at 9:18 pm

#172 waiting on the westcoast on 12.19.15 at 1:49 pm

Oh my God, I have raised an entitled millennial…

My eldest is 19 and is moving out for some freedom. He is dropping out of college and going to work full-time as a bartender. He says he may consider going into heavy duty mechanic program (which I think is also good – not as good as engineering but somebody needs to fix stuff). Proud that he wants to be his own man (even if deluded with the bartender thing) but worried for his future if he doesn’t move forward with some ambition…

The good news is that he hasn’t grown a beard yet… ;-)
**********************

lol…(hasn’t grown a beard yet) classic. Good luck to your son, the bartender gig…is no doubt a way to meet women and travel right? He he.. all the best to your son, experience is great. If he decides to grow a hipster beard – you can always shave it off in his sleep (no offense to the bearded on this blog). Guy at work just grew a beard so everyone will take him seriously. I guess the old way of gaining respect takes too long……

Thanks for the chuckle.

Be well.

#234 cynically on 12.19.15 at 9:22 pm

To #187 BS, you are full of your own posting name. Read Mark, yes Mark, at #192 showing how wrong you are and I’m not partial to any party.

#235 diddledeedodo on 12.19.15 at 9:57 pm

#226 joblo on 12.19.15 at 8:40 pm
“… Hypothetical question …you are inviting 3 people over to your house this holiday period.Who are your 3 choices.”

Garth Turner
Stephen Harper
Daisy Mae”

Garth
Benny Hill
Bruce Jenner

#236 bill on 12.19.15 at 10:02 pm

‘Milky’ Quayle,
Conor Cummins,
Ian Hutchinson…

#237 Freedom First on 12.19.15 at 10:12 pm

#212 Smoking Man

“Give him the link to mine”

Perfection. Comment of the day.

#238 Smoking Man on 12.19.15 at 10:17 pm

#224 TurnerNation on 12.19.15 at 8:24 pm
Rumor has it the elites are planning events for us Dec 25-26.

In other news I would not go long till 2016…

I was born long….Take it easy Sherly Valentine.

If your name is

CADUSD.
OR
USDCAD.

Long will work on one of those.

Heads or tails

Life is a booleen.
Only a gifted artist with a tin foil Fedora understands this.

#239 Godth on 12.19.15 at 10:41 pm

#231 Retired Boomer WI on 12.19.15 at 9:17 pm

“Is it any wonder western civilization seems to have lost its way? Or is this just the mad ravings of a geezer?”

Nah, you’re just an astute geezer. Plenty of us know the score. We’re still trying to make it somewhat comprehensible is all. How do you define madness? Or sanity? Mammon is deceptive…
Here’s an interesting journey, to be chewed in small pieces perhaps:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbGVEXR1GQs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZ1Dm-dcl68

#240 waiting on the westcoast on 12.19.15 at 10:46 pm

Thanks everyone for the thoughts re: my potential bearded one. I am sure he will be fine. I, too, went through a lost phase. Easier to do than watch I guess… ;-)

#241 Buy or rent on 12.19.15 at 10:59 pm

To BS your name says it all. Plus you cannot read. I never said the condo is worth $300,000. I said a 300,000 mortgage is cheaper than renting.in case you cannot add
Mortgage about 1,300, plus taxes 150 and plus strata about 250. Or About $700 less a month then rent. If I factor in the down payment at 5% in forgone interest it still less than the rent.

you full of bull about renting a million dollar home for peanuts. I challenge you scan your rent cheque and your address. BS

I on the other hand have search all he rentals for my square footage. And $2,300 is about average for the condo in this neighbourhood. Sure I will move in with you on east Hastings and smoke with you.

Would you like a shovel for your pile.

You can argue anyway you like, but there are many people like me doing simple math, it’s cheaper to buy and have a small mortgage than it is to rent an equalivalent house.

In addition 90% of Canadians do not understand investing and getting returns of 5 to 7% a year.

It’s not right but that’s what 70% of Canadians do and Australians and British as well.

Good luck!

#242 Bottoms_Up on 12.19.15 at 11:15 pm

#209 Daisy Mae on 12.19.15 at 7:23 pm
————————-
The wealthy barber also only accumulated wealth through real estate speculation and accumulation, and luck.

#243 Bottoms_Up on 12.19.15 at 11:27 pm

Actually I misspoke earlier. A woman’s fertility falls off a cliff around 35-40:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_and_female_fertility

#244 Shirley valentine on 12.19.15 at 11:35 pm

Oh Smokey Man.. let’s go loooong on the heads n tails…….you studly beast of an alien man.

#245 Bobs ur uncle on 12.19.15 at 11:43 pm

#214 For those about to flop… on 12.19.15 at 7:45 pm

I really like the Metrosexual Messiah moniker – and I don’t even have the hate on for JT that many do. But it really is just a perfect fit for him.

And since you now have some time on your hands, you might like this link to Ricky Gervais and Louis CK (as well as Seinfeld and Chris Rock) all in the same room together:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=OKY6BGcx37k

Been a while but I definitely remember a few good laughs.

Hope your recovery is speedy mate.
Cheers

#246 Leo Trollstoy on 12.19.15 at 11:47 pm

My bullishness on the CAD$ is largely long-term. On account of Canada’s structural long-term trade surpluses, and the USA’s structural long-term trade deficits.

I like this long term trade story. It’s consistent. And consistency is good.

I’ve given a view of where the CAD/USD$ pair is going in the long term. Dramatically higher for the CAD$ as the US forced into a devaluation to correct the long-term trade imbalances that exist between it and the rest of the world. And as Canada’s consumer debt starts to slow and even contract.
http://forums.redflagdeals.com/canadian-dollar-its-ups-downs-1442859/2/#post18316586

Might a more meaningful turnaround in the CAD/USD pair be around the corner? Past week or two have been awfully stable. So much for the whole idea that we were going back to 80 cents or whatever the gloom and doomers were claiming, based on some ill-thought out idea of ‘fundamentals’ (or worse, relying upon fundamentally flawed things like hamburger prices!).
http://forums.redflagdeals.com/canadian-dollar-its-ups-downs-1442859/2/#post18314660

Only 20 years to go!

Or is it 18 years since the above posts were made at the start of 2014?

I don’t know.

#247 Leo Trollstoy on 12.19.15 at 11:51 pm

My bullishness on the CAD$ is largely long-term

There’s plenty of evidence that the CAD/USD pair will go back to parity, and beyond in the not-so-distant future
http://forums.redflagdeals.com/loonie-against-greenback-ever-going-par-again-1453861/2/#post18448377

Which one is it?

Anybody know?

#248 45north on 12.19.15 at 11:57 pm

the Prime Minister promises sunshine and ponies but the civil service is run like the CIA

OTTAWA — Ensuring Canadians have access to federal information will mean more — and sometimes difficult — public scrutiny, but ultimately it will lead to better government, the prime minister says.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/national/improving+public+access+information+will+make+government+better/11602505/story.html

as a matter of policy all data at Agriculture Canada is now encrypted. Just in case. Encryption is a cost imposed on the whole organization: it costs to encrypt it, it costs to undo the process, it costs when the original encryption key cannot be found – the data is effectively lost.

the data is not sensitive: soil surveys, watershed studies, lab reports. Okay some things would be of some embarrassment if released: personnel records, PhD thesis’s, maybe budget numbers. Yeah but nobody cares.

The point is the government is building a big fence around its data and then building gates through the fence.

BC Guy says that the civil servants should be fired because they’re useless lazy scum. Well they’re not and they don’t have a choice about stupid, costly policy like encrypting all the data.

#249 Millmech on 12.20.15 at 12:05 am

#172
Ah don’t worry,once he gets his red seal he should be pulling in anywhere from $100,000-$150,000.
Push for him to get a second trade of industrial mechanics or welding to be dual ticketed,much more employable and some employers pay a nice premium for having more tha one ticket.

#250 Leo Trollstoy on 12.20.15 at 12:07 am

My bullishness on the CAD$ is largely long-term

There’s plenty of evidence that the CAD/USD pair will go back to parity, and beyond in the not-so-distant future
http://forums.redflagdeals.com/loonie-against-greenback-ever-going-par-again-1453861/2/#post18448377

I believe the CAD$ is on its way up soon…USD$ strength is temporary at best.
http://forums.redflagdeals.com/deflation-1418406/#post17933797

Which one is it?

Anybody know?

#251 Harvey Tailor on 12.20.15 at 1:25 am

“Chretien left in today’s dollars 55 billion deficit when Harper took over.

Absolutely false. I was there. — Garth”

The Liberals ‘balanced budget’ was due to the off loading of all responsibility and debt and the claw back of all transfer payments to the provinces, except Quebec. The Liberals then used 100% of tax revenue to ‘balance the books’. The problem was that once the provinces were forced to bankruptcy they had to issue massive debt and jack up taxes to the astronomical levels we see today for the services like health education infrastructure etc etc etc , and now the taxpayers are stuck with the billions in debt and the massive tax increases due to the Liberals phony ‘balancing act’.

Also false. Transfer payments were not eliminated and the provinces did not go bankrupt. Do people actually believe this junk? — Garth

#252 BS on 12.20.15 at 5:57 am

Buy or rent on 12.19.15 at 10:59 pm
To BS your name says it all. Plus you cannot read. I never said the condo is worth $300,000. I said a 300,000 mortgage is cheaper than renting.in case you cannot add
Mortgage about 1,300, plus taxes 150 and plus strata about 250. Or About $700 less a month then rent. If I factor in the down payment at 5% in forgone interest it still less than the rent.

you full of bull about renting a million dollar home for peanuts. I challenge you scan your rent cheque and your address. BS

If you are willing to wager your $100K I will gladly show you my rent cheques, proof of address, lease agreement, assessed value of the condo. Don’t worry your $100K will be better off going to me than towards a condo that will be worth 40 cents on the dollar in a few years.

Below a quick search for a rental in downtown Vancouver that has a asking rent of $2595 and a list price of $846K.

http://www.easyrent.ca/listings/2103-565-smithe-vancouver-british-columbia/

http://www.rew.ca/properties/R2001361/2103-565-smithe-street-vancouver

How does that make your $2300 rent for a $400K place look when you can rent a place worth $846K for 10% more? That took me 2 minutes to find and that is without negotiating the rent. I bet I could negotiate a rent of $2200 for that place.

At first I thought you must be a realtor but now I realize you are just a fool.

#253 BS on 12.20.15 at 6:08 am

Buy or rent on 12.19.15 at 10:59 pm

Here is another one for you. Two identical units both units 2905 455 and 583 Beach Crescent (these buildings are identical across from each other). One listed for $1.3 million or you rent the other for $2850.

http://www.easyrent.ca/listings/2905-583-beach-crescent-vancouver/

http://andrewsgroup.ca/mls-properties-detail.cfm?sysid=261997828

And you pay $2300 for a $400K dump? LOL.

#254 meslippery on 12.20.15 at 7:42 am

102 Smoking Man on 12.18.15 at 10:34 pm

#95 IHCTD9 on 12.18.15 at 9:55 pm

Know this, T2 got elected by schooled un educated kids,
————————————
You kind of lost some cred when you cant figure
out how much gas costs.
Between here and the US.

#255 saskatoon on 12.20.15 at 8:00 am

these 36,560 ontarians are the dumbest of the dumb:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/12/20/ontarians-urged-to-help-province-pay-off-its-debt.html

it’s like sending money to the dude who robbed your house…because he didn’t quite get everything.

#256 For those about to flop... on 12.20.15 at 8:40 am

#245 Bobs ur uncle on 12.19.15 at 11:43 pm
#214 For those about to flop… on 12.19.15 at 7:45 pm

I really like the Metrosexual Messiah moniker – and I don’t even have the hate on for JT that many do. But it really is just a perfect fit for him.

And since you now have some time on your hands, you might like this link to Ricky Gervais and Louis CK (as well as Seinfeld and Chris Rock) all in the same room together:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=OKY6BGcx37k

Been a while but I definitely remember a few good laughs.

Hope your recovery is speedy mate.
Cheers
////////////////////////////////////////
Thanks for your well wishes Bob.
Yeah I am still not cool with the Tfsa reduction but I don’t really have any ill will towards Tru2.
I wasn’t even really trying to demean him when I came up with the Metrosexual Messiah.(TM )
I just remember looking at the dude thinking he’s a lot different from me.
I’m a bit rough around the edges compared to him,maybe he wants me to spend some of the $4500 tfsa money that won’t be going in on Manicures and Pedicures!

Also ,not gonna lie I had to google some of the people that people invited over .I just wrote 3 people that I thought everyone would know.
It’s also funny that you talk about Canadian only because I wondered if there was going to be some home country bais ,just like Canadians do when investing.
Thanks to all who wrote.

#257 OXI in GREECE on 12.20.15 at 9:19 am

#243 Bottoms_Up on 12.19.15 at 11:27 pm
Actually I misspoke earlier. A woman’s fertility falls off a cliff around 35-40:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Age_and_female_fertility
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Wow….my wife and I must be freaks. We had three kids in 30 months 36-39 years old !! Course….we are very healthy, fit, never eat disgusting junk food. Lots of organic. Guess you really are “what you eat”

Did you have children, or calves? — Garth

#258 For those about to flop... on 12.20.15 at 9:59 am

Where’s all the Millennials this weekend?
Got their hands on their lightsabers?

#259 Yeah baby who luvs ya on 12.20.15 at 11:06 am

#250 Leo Trollstoy on 12.20.15 at 12:07 am

My bullishness on the CAD$ is largely long-term

There’s plenty of evidence that the CAD/USD pair will go back to parity, and beyond in the not-so-distant future
http://forums.redflagdeals.com/loonie-against-greenback-ever-going-par-again-1453861/2/#post18448377

I believe the CAD$ is on its way up soon…USD$ strength is temporary at best.
http://forums.redflagdeals.com/deflation-1418406/#post17933797

Which one is it?

Anybody know?
———————–

“I personally don’t see Trudeau as being CAD$ negative if he is successful in winning the election. Probably neutral at best. Put the right set of international economic tailwinds at Trudeau’s back as PM (ie: a US debt crisis), and the loonie could easily be $1.3-$1.5 as I’ve suggested up-thread. At least temporarily.”

Who is this “financial wizard known as mark”….. he now has the T2 part for his prediction… so CAD going to the stratosphere! It’s only got to double in value now! On the basis on this amazing prediction I’m selling my house and betting it all……

We are so lucky to have this in house financial wizard to guide us

#260 Fine wild roasted gonads on 12.20.15 at 11:14 am

Did smoking man really become american…. and tilt the balance with his missing tooth to help the USA claim the throne of the top toothless nation…

Did this count for the special skills and unique talents visa

http://news.nationalpost.com/health/americans-have-more-missing-teeth-7-31-than-their-british-counterparts-6-97-for-first-time

#261 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 12.20.15 at 11:19 am

In my business the matter of interest rates comes up a fair amount. I am always amazed at the number of people who deny that rates are poised to rise and astonished at those who believe there is a good chance we might see negative rates!?!

I know it’s happened in parts of the world before but…

Business Sense?
Simple Economics?
The Bond Market?
Historical Track Records and Trends?

How can it go anywhere but up?

Supply and Demand. There’s just too much credit available out there. It’s being abused by both lender and borrower. At some point the books need to be balanced one way or another.

You just shocked me. — Garth

#262 Fine wild roasted gonads on 12.20.15 at 11:22 am

Smoking man…you may be interested in the wreck reborn

The greatest toothless singer in the world has been reborn with a new set of chicklets….. he’s been completely toothless since 2009 apparently……….let’s hope he can still drink and sing

http://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2015/dec/20/shane-macgowan-a-wreck-reborn-new-teeth-tv-special

#263 Bytor the Snow Dog on 12.20.15 at 11:42 am

Regarding Rick at 7.

Rick buddy, you’re damned if you listen to your wife and damned if you don’t. If you buy her the new pad you’re making A big mistake as RE is going to start to have at the very least a slow decline.

If you don’t buy her the new digs she’ll be unhapppppyyy and probably play her “D” card in which case she’ll get her new place… on your dime!

Welcome to the Family Court system in Canada.

#264 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 12.20.15 at 11:49 am

You just shocked me. — Garth

That I would agree with you?

I agree with you on a lot of things Garth. Don’t see eye to eye on a lot of others but, I like to think we each get something from that.

#265 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 12.20.15 at 11:52 am

SHIFT happens my friend.

Goes both ways

};-)

#266 Drill Baby Drill on 12.20.15 at 11:56 am

#261
Too Funny how did they possible find a way to count every ones teeth ?

#267 Fine wild roasted gonads on 12.20.15 at 12:16 pm

#267 Drill Baby Drill on 12.20.15 at 11:56 am
#261
Too Funny how did they possible find a way to count every ones teeth ?
———-
Humans are hilarious. The things we spend time counting.

#268 Movety Canada on 12.20.15 at 1:33 pm

Very analytical and informative post, Garth. Thanks a lot.