Consequences

MOUSE modified

Well, that was predictable.

One day after the most powerful babe in the world messed with the cost of money, the fallout started – just as a certain pathetic blog told you would happen. By starting the normalization of American rates, the Fed sent out some powerful signals. Like, we don’t actually care about Canada, Brazil or Australia, so suck it up. And, USA! USA! We’re back.

The results were brutal in Canickistan, especially as the snow wafted down upon Burnaby and White Rock, creating sheer panic. The US dollar rallied strongly on sentiment that economy is now strong enough to grow without the aid of government stimulus or emergency rates. So, the loonie crashed – off a full cent for most of Thursday, finishing up a little above 71 and a half.

LOONIE

This is an 11-year low, with the exchange rate damn close to $1.40. So hopefully you took the advice here months ago to have at least 20% of your investment portfolio in US$ at all times. The collapse in our currency this year alone has been a withering 17%.

Second, result – a kick in the stones for commodities. Also expected, since they’re traded and valued in American currency. After a promising recovery days ago, oil lost more than 2% and is back below $35 a barrel. That’s for the good stuff. Oil sands crude – known as Western Canada Select – already sells at a deep discount, and is also the target of US environmentalists who are convincing a lot of Yanks this is ‘dirty oil.’ True or not, it hurts.

Here’s the result:

DISCOUNT CRUDES

So, the quarter-point increase by the Fed is having the anticipated cascading effect. The greenback stiffens, bringing commodity prices sharply lower. The combo of a more valuable American dollar and less valuable oil whacks the loonie. And all this weakens Canadian companies, leading to triple-digit losses on the TSX – which this year is down 11%.

It puts the Bank of Canada is a tough spot. If it cuts interest rates on Wednesday January 20th (at 10 am) in an attempt to thwart the deflating impact of oil, then we might as well start using Canadian Tire money. But if it hangs tough and does nothing, the economy’s left without additional stimulus. If oil travels to, say, thirty bucks (not a far trip) you can pretty much say goodbye to Alberta as more than the home of Truck Nutz and twangy music.

Anyway, it’s hard to see any good here for average citizens and their houses. The Fed has indicated US rates will likely rise four times in 2016 (although Wall Street expects just two increases). This is consistent with past tightening cycles by the central bank – the average lasts about 2.5 years and adds 2-4% to the starting rate. It’s also worth remembering that 92% of the time over the last 25 years the Bank of Canada has eventually followed. If the loonie collapses more, bank action’s a no-brainer.

Is it different this time?

Nobody knows. But I doubt it. The Fed will do what is best for the US – normalizing money to prevent asset bubbles, excessive borrowing and unwanted inflation. So it’s reasonable to expect the cheapest rates in our lifetime are now in the rear view mirror.

Meanwhile the problems with our economy are structural – too great a reliance on rocks and trees, too much debt, too much government spending, too high taxes, and neighbours who actually believe they can leverage up on a house and that extra taxes on the wealthy – a paltry 0.75% of the population – will save them.

I’d repeat my advice on how to deal with this, but what’s the point? Only Bandit listens.

295 comments ↓

#1 Old Man Too on 12.17.15 at 5:44 pm

Hi Garth, I’m back. Notice the spike in readership?

#2 For those about to flop... on 12.17.15 at 5:48 pm

Angela Merkel,not the most powerful babe in the world?

#3 Randy on 12.17.15 at 5:49 pm

Bandit is smarter than most who post here.

#4 Shoulda on 12.17.15 at 5:49 pm

I made out with a bandit once.
She made out like a bandit.

I see the comments section is off to its usual incisive start. — Garth

#5 3s on 12.17.15 at 5:52 pm

I listened thanks Garth – and I’m doing just fine:)

#6 Jonathan on 12.17.15 at 5:53 pm

My portfolio is fairly balanced… some red and some green today… and 1/3 in US$, so why do I still have an uneasy feeling about all this? And why do I still think real estate prices will continue to shoot up in Vancouver and Toronto defying all logic for eternity?

#7 saskatoon on 12.17.15 at 5:53 pm

#320 pwn3d
#342 Bottoms_Up

dude…there is no point.

bottoms is a pathological altruist:

getting a “bang” from each posted earth-saving quip.

reality and rationality are irrelevant; the “high” is what’s important.

#8 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 12.17.15 at 5:54 pm

Do you have to give Bandit a treat?

#9 Retired Boomer WI on 12.17.15 at 5:55 pm

You have a smart owner there, Bandit, listen to him.

Indigestion today from all the “good news” on rates, or…

#10 Vancouver RE on 12.17.15 at 5:56 pm

I’m a Vancouver realtor with a large national Real estate company – 20+ years in the business. We had our year end meeting this morning. Of course a topic that was brought up was Ottawa’s new down payment rules. The overwhelming opinion is that it will barely have an effect on lower mainland sales, especially among single family homes. If anything, it appears that a couple of month pop may occur from minimum down payment buyers trying to sneak in before the change. It may impact lower priced markets already weakened like Calgary, but still not significantly.

Obviously the US rate increase was another topic. Again, it won’t have an effect yet. There has been no action by Canadian banks to raise rates on mortgages as a result. A spokesman from one of the major lenders was present. Even as the fed raises rates slowly, any increase in Canadian rates will be lower that any increase by the fed. So, any effect will be at least a couple of years off and muted. But if rates rise higher at a quicker rate, that may be more concerning.

What has been interesting, is foreign investment – call it what you like. The buyers may or may not have residency, but the money is still being brought into Canada from abroad. Still very strong is money originating from Asia. Where for the last few years, Americans buyers have been few. Now, they’re back in big numbers. Both groups see that even if the market flattens or drops by 10%, they will be shielded by a big currency gain. Homes may be at a high, but there is now a 30% discount for these buyers. Interest has never been higher, even if prices have also never been.

Listings continue to be at multi year lows. Anecdotal evidence by our network of realtors, suggest that that listing trend will continue to slow for a while yet. All housing types and regions of the lower mainland are experiencing a similar trend. Inventory of unsold new condos is near a low. Developers are having an incredibly tough time finding land for development and are facing increasing competition and drastically higher prices for what is available. Now, there’s a price war for land parcels.

Single family houses are in short supply with active listings low and going down. Especially in Vancouver city and the north shore. But, it’s happening in all of the lower mainland. Any redevelopment lot (older home) that has land for a larger house to be built on goes quick.

The local economy is the strongest in Canada. Immigration is increasing at a steady pace. Interest of properties being purchased by foreigners or out of towner’s as a second property has never been higher. We’re also seeing a net migration of retirees from other parts of Canada who are selling their big homes and buying smaller condos. Rental vacancies are also at an all time low.

So, even though there has been a few headwinds, the positive conditions will overtake them.

December is up strong so far. 2016 is shaping up, to be another robust year for sales. Prices may not surge like they did in 2015, but will still gain.

#11 pathcontrolmonk on 12.17.15 at 5:58 pm

My friend lives in a BC interior resort town that was also dependent on one mining company for jobs. One day the company announced that the limitless ore they thought was in the ground was nearly depleted and they would close the mine in 3 months. He said few paid much attention, just shrugged their shoulders and carried on. The day that they closed the mine, a majority of the workers showed up at the locked gates, their collective denial was so complete they were perplexed by the reality they faced. Sound familiar?

#12 Kevin Sam on 12.17.15 at 5:58 pm

Over the past two years I’ve continued to tell anyone who’d listen to get out of Canada. If you haven’t, reap the whirlwind baby ’cause it’s straight down the toilet from here. Anyone but me notice, that as soon as Harper stopped waving his magic wand, the country has leapt off a cliff and literally everything is simultaneously swirling down the crapper? You might have ‘Hated Harper’, but nothing like this ever happened on his watch. Quick, take a selfie with Justin.

#13 For those about to flop... on 12.17.15 at 5:59 pm

This is an 11-year low, with the exchange rate damn close to $1.40. So hopefully you took the advice here months ago to have at least 20% of your investment portfolio in US$ at all times. The collapse in our currency this year alone has been a withering 17%.

///////////////////////////////////////////
Ahhh, so that’s why they call it the greenback, because when you hand over $100 U.S you get 2 Canadian twenties back on top when you exchange!

#14 yeah right on 12.17.15 at 5:59 pm

Yes, some realtors yesterday were saying the bond’s yeld dropped, well check the BoC website, jumped 0.9% this week!

Government of Canada Benchmark Bond Yields – 5 Year
Date Yield
2015-12-16 0.83
2015-12-15 0.80
2015-12-14 0.79
2015-12-11 0.74

#15 pathcontrolmonk on 12.17.15 at 6:00 pm

#10 Vancouver RE – Eww, who let him in?

#16 Broke Dick on 12.17.15 at 6:01 pm

The US dollar rallied strongly on sentiment that economy is now strong enough to grow without the aid of government stimulus or emergency rates-GT

Uhmm, excuse me. I’m new here. .25%-.50% are not still emergency rates?

#17 mark on 12.17.15 at 6:03 pm

No problem. Global BC said so.

#18 Dont Believe The Hype on 12.17.15 at 6:04 pm

I think we have a big problem of having an economy that on the surface, doesn’t appear to be very diversified. A lot of manufacturing jobs have gone elsewhere, all that remains are service jobs, government jobs and of course jobs connected to commodities. It’s crazy that the economy is taking/going to take such a hit on the commodities swoon. Apart from cars, Canada doesn’t BUILD much for export anymore….

#19 Darryl on 12.17.15 at 6:04 pm

Kevin O’Leary calls prefers Toxic waist .
What do you think Garth?

#20 Show me on 12.17.15 at 6:05 pm

Please explain how the US manufacturing sector is getting killed, most jobs are low paying service sector garbage, government debt and off balance sheet debt is in the trillions…how does that make the US better of than us…all data showing their production of industrial products is down….they are closer to recession…even their GDP number calculation is screwed up…..

We will see what happens with the new president…either a socialist or a neo con war monger

#21 Shaun of the debt on 12.17.15 at 6:09 pm

I was reading the other day about “Zombie corporations” businesses that should be dead but are alive due to low interest rates. We have a zombie real estate market.

#22 Broke Dick on 12.17.15 at 6:11 pm

I like it.
Definitely some balance in this post.
Must be the bottle of scotch you won from doomer gloomer.

#23 Flippinghousesforever! on 12.17.15 at 6:11 pm

“December is up strong so far. 2016 is shaping up, to be another robust year for sales. Prices may not surge like they did in 2015, but will still gain.”

If they do it will be hot air from desperate lungs only.

In 5 years houses will cost less than now, significantly. This is enough information to stop anyone with a brain from buying.

All the rest are beyond my saving. I’ll donate to the food bank once the nation moves past the denial phase.

#24 Freedom First on 12.17.15 at 6:15 pm

Yes. And lots of Canadian Snowbirds staying home this winter too. Especially in Alberta. There is a lot of moaning in the Southern States, especially the western southern States, due to the missing $$$$$$$ of their Northern visitors. Pain for Canadians in many varieties, with a lot more pain to come. If the U.S. continues to raise rates, Canada will follow.

Homeowners who think that the BOC will not be raising rates to save their a$$e$, don’t count on it. Mind you, if it’s like what is happening in Alberta right now, it is difficult to make the mortgage payment when you don’t have a job. And so many other homeowners are in the same position at the same time as the prices drop, like a faster and faster dripping water faucet.

Being Freedom First, I will not reiterate my personal preference, as everyone already knows my favourite position. Takes balls to do what I do. And I am good at it.

#25 lala on 12.17.15 at 6:17 pm

Mr.Turner pls dont share anything, let them do as they wish, I’ll send you your cut to buy a new pair of pyjamas.

#26 waiting on the westcoast on 12.17.15 at 6:17 pm

#10 Vancouver RE

I agree that this is the current state of the union in Van. That said, mob mentality has a tendency to inflect quickly once it realizes that the market is against it. Might take another year and a few more increases to have it sink in but once it does… Momentum will shift. Where is Devil’s Advocate when you need him.

That said, any thoughts on how the raise with affect Latin America. Brazil and Argentina are already suffering… This can only make it worse.

#27 Kai2.0 on 12.17.15 at 6:18 pm

This is precisely the time that one wants to invest in commodities, when no one wants them and think they will never be worth anything again (they are cyclical, remember). Something will eventually come about to remind people that the US is really only surviving because the USD is still the reserve currency (for now), but has HUGE debt and liability issues. Good luck to the Americans (and us) if they ever lose reserve status.

As for the Cdn real estate market – way overpriced, especially in the big urban centers, as pointed out innumerable times here. If my place wasn’t paid for and didn’t provide an inexpensive place to stay, I’d sell and rent. We won’t go through a US style housing crash, just a long and slow decline in house values (and way more foreclosures).

#28 lala on 12.17.15 at 6:18 pm

Freedom first not even you have balls but you look like a ball to me, no offence.

#29 Darryl on 12.17.15 at 6:19 pm

#13 For those about to flop… on 12.17.15 at 5:59 pm

This is an 11-year low, with the exchange rate damn close to $1.40. So hopefully you took the advice here months ago to have at least 20% of your investment portfolio in US$ at all times. The collapse in our currency this year alone has been a withering 17%.

///////////////////////////////////////////
Ahhh, so that’s why they call it the greenback, because when you hand over $100 U.S you get 2 Canadian twenties back on top when you exchange!
————————————————————-

Ba Dum Bum
Lovin those Meds eh Flopper? :)

#30 Bandit on 12.17.15 at 6:19 pm

Garth, I only pretend to listen, when you’re holding out a milk bone.

The rest of the time, you’re just another dumb homo sapiens talking.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ss2hULhXf04

Stupid humans.

Fetch me some food or I’ll pee on your rug again.

#31 Lorne on 12.17.15 at 6:20 pm

#12 Kevin Sam
Over the past two years I’ve continued to tell anyone who’d listen to get out of Canada. If you haven’t, reap the whirlwind baby ’cause it’s straight down the toilet from here. Anyone but me notice, that as soon as Harper stopped waving his magic wand, the country has leapt off a cliff and literally everything is simultaneously swirling down the crapper? You might have ‘Hated Harper’, but nothing like this ever happened on his watch. Quick, take a selfie with Justin.
……….
You are kidding about Harper, right?? If you honestly believe he had nothing to do with the mess we are in today,well……..

#32 Yitzhak Rabin on 12.17.15 at 6:22 pm

The Russian ruble (or the post 1998 version of it) hit a new low today against the US dollar. They have rates at 11%. Brazil is at 14.25%. How does Canada fair if we need those rate to protect our currency from becoming confetti?

How does the US fair with it’s rapidly approaching $19 Federal Debt (the funded portion of it).

Central banks are trapped with no good options left. Gold and to a lesser extent silver, will outlast all fiat currencies regardless of temporary whip-saws to keep this charade or a monetary system going.

#33 neo on 12.17.15 at 6:23 pm

Garth,

What is the U.S. bond market telling you? It doesn’t seem to be cooperating with your meme. At this rate mortgage rates will have lower bias not higher in the near term.

#34 Doug t on 12.17.15 at 6:23 pm

The constant talk about how strong the U.S economy is doesn’t tell the whole truth. Most of the “job creation” has bee in low paying service sector jobs the have no benefits and contribute nothing to product manufacturing or real growth. The “true” unemployment rate in the states is at least 15% and growing. Canada is in for a world of hurt for the next several years – but don’t kid yourself about a “strong” America – it may look like a shiny apple but the core is rotten

#35 Andy on 12.17.15 at 6:24 pm

It will be interesting to see what happens in Vancouver if / when the Liberals bring in legislation to limit investment and/or tax gains for foreign owners! It keeps getting brought up and would be politically positive. Result=scary!

#36 Nanaimo Bar on 12.17.15 at 6:25 pm

Just my opinion

USD/CAN trading range will be 1.36.00 – 1.4700. USD short squeeze has begun, driving USD higher. This is as good as it gets for Canada. US will only strengthen. OPEC/US oil price war will intensify. US will begin exporting Light Sweet Crude from the Bakken Oil Field which will drive oil prices and CAD lower. Iran will begin exporting oil after embargo is lifted, driving oil prices and CAD lower. US Fed will continue its path of raising interest rates with a goal of 1.5 for 2016. They will fight tooth and nail to get there.

Do not fall in love with money or materialistic things. Save your love for family and friends.

#37 For those about to flop... on 12.17.15 at 6:26 pm

#29 Darryl on 12.17.15 at 6:19 pm
#13 For those about to flop… on 12.17.15 at 5:59 pm

This is an 11-year low, with the exchange rate damn close to $1.40. So hopefully you took the advice here months ago to have at least 20% of your investment portfolio in US$ at all times. The collapse in our currency this year alone has been a withering 17%.

///////////////////////////////////////////
Ahhh, so that’s why they call it the greenback, because when you hand over $100 U.S you get 2 Canadian twenties back on top when you exchange!
————————————————————-

Ba Dum Bum
Lovin those Meds eh Flopper? :)

////////////////////////////////////
Well at least I know one person got it!

#38 bigtowne on 12.17.15 at 6:31 pm

Planning my trip south later in 2016 and I called TD to inquire how much I will be charged to use the debit card for withdrawals in the U.S. The answer was a bit confusing as follows: when you do withdrawals you are paying the EXCHANGE RATE difference only but if you use the debit visa card for purchases at a merchant you are charged the EXCHANGE RATE and a 2.5% rate as well.

The Bank of Nova Scotia debit card only charges the EXCHANGE RATE difference on both WITHDRAWALS and purchases not tacking on the TD 2.5% fee.

So I called and got the above confirmed and found the above unusual in that I had imagined that both TD and Scotia would be on the same page in regard to the debit card charges and withdrawals.

The plan is to use the CREDIT CARD as little as possible to avoid the additional 2.5% credit card fee. If any boomers are informed or any financial mavens have additional info please blog as any and all southern trips with our ever devaluing currency is a major concern.

#39 Dominoes Lining Up on 12.17.15 at 6:32 pm

Plus you may be getting a surprise from your municipal government. Provincial too.

Some debt bonds of local governments in Canada are payable in US$.

Could be good for more tax hikes locally just when the economy is already taking a hit. A sinking loonie might require higher yields.

Check your local balance sheets and prepare.

#40 april on 12.17.15 at 6:36 pm

#15 Realtors will pump all the way to the bottom. It’s their living, they have too. Poor sods………..

#41 Fine wild roasted gonads on 12.17.15 at 6:40 pm

Oilberta is saved. We will sell our air to china. Don’t need no stinking pipelines.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/selling-bottled-lake-louise-air-started-as-a-joke-but-theres-actually-a-lot-of-demand

#42 For those about to flop... on 12.17.15 at 6:40 pm

You will know with no uncertain doubt that the madness is over in Vancouver when a developer buys a knock down 50 year old bungalow and replaces it with a new energy efficienct bungalow instead of building the biggest possible square footage that they are allowed.
I am not sure if I will see this day ,but that to me would signal a changing off the times.
Until then I am renting ,maybe forever.So be it.

#43 JamesA on 12.17.15 at 6:43 pm

I seldom get further from downtown 416 than my bike will take me. Today, had to drive through the suburbs up north (I think Richmond Hill or maybe Vaughn). The new development cookie cutter copy and paste architecture fills me with dread. It’s like a Terry Gilliam movie. There are so so many houses. It’s not just that there overpriced, it seems unnatural.

#44 nubbers on 12.17.15 at 6:44 pm

Vancouver RE @10

Strangely, in the UK, the National Association of Estate Agents has also chosen today to come out with a statement that our already over inflated house prices will double in the next 10 years.

My initial reaction was that you and the NAEA will probably be the first up against the wall when the revolution comes, or at least lynched by a hoard of angry bank debt slaves.

On further reflection, I suspect that you and your ilk will totally avoid your comeuppance, and that you could teach me much of what I need to know for my PhD in Evil. I’m sure we could work out contact details through Garth.

#45 Sebee on 12.17.15 at 6:46 pm

DELETED

#46 Balmuto on 12.17.15 at 6:47 pm

#10 Vancouver RE

You sound like you know what you’re talking about. What are you doing on this blog?

#47 Chris on 12.17.15 at 6:47 pm

So lettuce is going to be 4.99 a piece and cauliflower 7.99? Maybe should just stick with onions and potatoes.

#48 richard leblond on 12.17.15 at 6:48 pm

The problem with Canada’s Economy is the Reformist Harper Government did nothing except focus on oil and keystone, oh and the “Economic Action Plan” Bwa ha ha!

#49 50 cent loonie rapper on 12.17.15 at 6:49 pm

What do ya do with a drunken loonie?
What do ya do with a drunken loonie?
What do ya do with a drunken loonie?
Early in the morning

Down, down, down, she’s falling
Down, down, down, she’s falling
Down, down, down, she’s falling
Early in the morning

#50 Sebee on 12.17.15 at 6:51 pm

Oh, can someone tell us how many articles we read in the Globe in recent years about no Dutch disease in Canada, about how lower oil won’t impact our dollar, etc. I recall at least a dozen.

#51 50 cent loonie rapper on 12.17.15 at 6:52 pm

Btw Garth,

Congrats on being right on this, we never lost faith in ye bro’.

The big question is what do you do for a follow up act, after Canada has plunged into darkness? Maybe time to do the contrarian on the other side of the equation…

#52 Smartalox on 12.17.15 at 6:53 pm

#10 Vancouver RE:

Whoa! Talk about smoking the Kool-aid!

#53 BC Guy on 12.17.15 at 6:58 pm

Kevin Sam: “You might have ‘Hated Harper’, but nothing like this ever happened on his watch.”

Harper had 10 years to test his Conservative ideology. We are seeing his results now:

– 72 cent dollar
– TSX down 9% the past 12 months, 0% over 5 years
– Alberta has the worst economy
– unemployment across all sectors of economy
– manufacturing is on the ropes, much of it has been outsourced to other countries
– the tech sector is on the ropes, mostly outsourced to other countries
– the 1% control much of the real estate, particularly the large rural acreages
– Harper was the real “selfie”, a hermit who worked in a stone building in Ottawa and shielded himself from the media and the public, using robocalls and proroguing to stay in power

Bottom line is Harper geared all his energy into making Canada an Energy Superpower, a Petroleum exporter, so he could export raw resources to the lowest bidder and the least amount of protection to the environment and workers. And despite all the trade deals he signed and all the rights and powers he gave away to foreign corporations and governments through his trade deals, it all amounted to a legacy of economic and political disaster.

The perfect metaphor for Harper and his Conservative ideology is the dangerously overweight Mike Duffy, the poor SOB who spent years earning $300k working for CTV and then $150k as a so-called “senator” who lied, cheated and obfuscated, got a huge inheritance, got money from his wife, and STILL, STILL, he had to borrow 90k from Harper’s right hand man. If there was ever a greater fool than Mike Duffy, please let me know.

#54 usa rocks...go babe.... on 12.17.15 at 7:01 pm

“So it’s reasonable to expect the cheapest rates in our lifetime are now in the rear view mirror”

personally, I think there’s a good chance we (cdn/usa) could see negative rates in the next few years. and I’ve been trying to keep my rose coloured glasses on….really.
one ‘outlier’ will be all it takes….

#55 Godth on 12.17.15 at 7:03 pm

“Nobody knows. But I doubt it. The Fed will do what is best for the US – normalizing money to prevent asset bubbles, excessive borrowing and unwanted inflation. So it’s reasonable to expect the cheapest rates in our lifetime are now in the rear view mirror.”

i’m so glad you have a sense of humour Garth.

#56 Brian Ripley on 12.17.15 at 7:04 pm

“Rental vacancies are also at an all time low. “#10 Vancouver RE

I added some screen shots and links to Murray Cox’s “Inside Airbnb” (and Tom Slee’s work) to my attempts at ball-parking rentals available online:

http://www.chpc.biz/compare-toronto–vancouver.html#Airbnb

I suspect when we will see a lot of those online listings move from Airbnb, Craigslist and Kijiji to the MLS. Over 60% of the Airbnb listings did not get a review in the last 6 months (ie did not get rental income)

If you don’t list you don’t last.

#57 conan on 12.17.15 at 7:09 pm

No one knows that mouses name but he single handily stopped the brutal crackdown on the mousecidents in
Tiananmen Square. It had something to do with the price of cheese in China.

Google it

#58 Godth on 12.17.15 at 7:16 pm

#16 Broke Dick on 12.17.15 at 6:01 pm

Rates have normalized now that rainbows and unicorns are ubiquitous. Ok, you’re new here but a win is a win and if you can’t believe that the dream is forever you can find the exit.

If you aren’t American (that means the USA) you can go to hell too. We won the end of history and we’ll do what we want goddammit. Screw you and the EU too. Welcome to the American (that means the USA) century bitches, bend over and blow. China and Russia…ooohhwww, bastards, that means you too. Eurasia is ours, you’ll bend the knee.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HivxFBB87-Y

#59 Saskabush on 12.17.15 at 7:18 pm

Looks good to me.
1.40 for every 1.
Why’s everyone complaining? Did I miss something?

#60 Mean Gene on 12.17.15 at 7:18 pm

Normalization of deviance is what we have been living with concerning low interest rates… time for a rude wakeup call.

#61 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.17.15 at 7:19 pm

@#52 BC Guy
“the 1% control much of the real estate, particularly the large rural acreages”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Its an itch you just keep scratching. I think it’s infected your brain.

#62 wonthappenhere on 12.17.15 at 7:21 pm

we are invincible here in vancouver. i know garth doesn’t think so but the numbers do the talking. my house is still increasing in value every single day. houses sell here as soon as they are listed. sold signs on every block and we are talking 1.2 million for a dump near the pne and 2.5 million for a dump on the west side. i laugh at all the chatter over the past ten years about vancouver housing bust on the horizon. we just keep climbing.

#63 Dominoes Lining Up on 12.17.15 at 7:23 pm

#38 JamesA said:

The new development cookie cutter copy and paste architecture fills me with dread. It’s like a Terry Gilliam movie. There are so so many houses. It’s not just that there overpriced, it seems unnatural

——————

True words. Ugly suburban wastelands surround the 416.

I met someone up there who had bought such a property for about $750,000 a couple years back, up nearer to Newmarket. (Who knew greater fools have been paying so much in such places?) Her sister bought one too, same price. They both are single, work two jobs, making under 50 grand each. They are totally dependent on renters, two or three in each house owned, just to cover their mortgages. Barely any money left over each month. Told me that this is pretty common practice in their subdivision and not hard to get the bank to do since property there keeps going up.

Imagine people like this when it all starts to hit the wall.

#64 usa rocks...go babe.... on 12.17.15 at 7:23 pm

#6 “And why do I still think real estate prices will continue to shoot up in Vancouver and Toronto defying all logic for eternity?”

cause if any ‘dip’ occurs the pent up buyers will come out of the woodwork to buy…rinse and repeat…
maybe not ‘eternity’ but much longer than anyone can imagine….

#65 Ex-Cowtown on 12.17.15 at 7:26 pm

I think we are very close to the bottom in oil prices, and with that a bottom in the loonie. The reasons are:

1. Everybody is predicting that oil will fall into the $20’s and stay low for years.
These types of predictions usually occur at market tops/bottoms. Last one was June 2014 when “everyone” said oil was going to $200/bbl. I call these We’ll All Be Killed!!! statements. are

#66 Sharmala on 12.17.15 at 7:27 pm

“This is an 11-year low, with the exchange rate damn close to $1.40. So hopefully you took the advice here months ago to have at least 20% of your investment portfolio in US$ at all times.”
———————-
So Garth,

A new potential client walks in to your office with a fairly substantial sum all in Canadian $ and wants to invest it with an advisor. What do you tell him/her now? What happens if the Canadian $ goes up to .85¢ in the next couple of years?

Unlikely. But a balanced, globally-diversified portfolio is the best approach in a volatile, uncertain world. — Garth

#67 Daisy Mae on 12.17.15 at 7:33 pm

“I’d repeat my advice on how to deal with this, but what’s the point? Only Bandit listens.”

***********************

Yup. Pets are fantastic. Always had one. So I’ll get my rescue dog in the new year. But what is this about ‘twangy music’? A Harley ridin’ man who wears cowboy boots? I’m shocked….

Anyway, you’ve kept me on the straight and narrow…and I appreciate everything you do for us.

#68 Ronaldo on 12.17.15 at 7:34 pm

#32 Yitzhak Rabin on 12.17.15 at 6:22 pm

”Central banks are trapped with no good options left. Gold and to a lesser extent silver, will outlast all fiat currencies regardless of temporary whip-saws to keep this charade or a monetary system going.”

Agree, but I believe silver (poor man’s gold) is a better investment alternative to gold because there is less of it and also because of its industrial uses. Pretty much all of the silver produced other than the small amount that is available for investment purposes (coins, jewellry,etc) is consumed and irrecoverable because it is used in such small quantities such as in computers, Iphones, etc and not profitable to recover. Right now the ratio of gold to silver is 77 to 1 or thereabouts and in normal times would trade at around 50 to 1. Given that it is extracted from the ground at roughly a 16 to 1 ratio tells me that its greatly underpriced or gold is tremendously overpriced. However, gold and silver are currently at a levels that are near to or below most producers all in costs so that would tell me that we are pretty much near a bottom in these metals and for the Americans at least, a good buy. For those Canadians who were fortunate enough to purchase back in November of 08 when the price went below $9.00 u.s. ($11.50 cdn) silver would have given a nice return of over 70% as of today where it sits at $19.32 cdn. For those who sold when it hit it’s high of $49.44 u.s. in April of 2011 (as I did) would have had a nice return of 456% and if the proceeds held in USD’s would have gained an additional 45% as of today. These opportunities come around occasionally and for those who understand these markets, there are great rewards to be had. I believe that we are once again approaching another great opportunity in this area and that would be with the producers whose shares have been decimated. That’s where I will be concentrating the 5 to 10% of my portfolio in the coming weeks.

Let the bashing begin.

#69 waiting on the westcoast on 12.17.15 at 7:35 pm

Just like in the late 90s / early 00s… The lower dollar pulls away the very people who could create entire industries of high paying jobs…

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/entrepreneur/fp-startups/brain-drain-threatens-canadas-dominance-in-artificial-intelligence-we-are-losing-our-top-talent&pubdate=2015-12-17

#70 Lorne on 12.17.15 at 7:36 pm

Back to normal..thanks

#71 45north on 12.17.15 at 7:39 pm

The Fed will do what is best for the US

for years people have posted here that the US will not raise rates because of this; because of that. What they meant was because it was against their interests.

I would say that capital will be deployed in a more profitable and more efficient way. In the US. That capital flight will increase. To the US.

Okay to our political leaders. Party’s over. Fact is you are the leaders now. Clean energy, environmentally conscious. Send out a survey party to find another Niagara Falls within 200 km of Toronto? Realistically doubling power from solar and wind from 1% to 2% would be an achievement. Nuclear? There are real risks. Real costs. I’m very interested in thorium where the reaction takes place in a liquid salt solution. I’ve heard that the same idea can be applied to uranium. Again the costs are big. But so are the costs of canceling the gas generating plants on the Oak Ridge Moraine ( rich bitches ). Oil sands. Stop moaning about pipelines to the US. Build the refineries in Alberta.

Cost of Government: You’ve got to make the government more efficient. You’ve got to address the costs imposed by the courts on the civil service.

Again you are the leaders now.

#72 bdy sktrn on 12.17.15 at 7:42 pm

#26 waiting on the westcoast on 12.17.15 at 6:17 pm
#10 Vancouver RE

I agree that this is the current state of the union in Van. That said, mob mentality has a tendency to inflect quickly
—————————-
which mob?

the one in bejing? or moscow? or terhan? what about the yanks who are now getting a big discount?
or is the local mob? or interprovincial migration? immigrants who dislike regina perhaps?
———————————-
when you have a dozen or so different mobs all pouring cash into the 604 you can spare a few mobs cooling off as there will be hot ones to replace them.

This is why van has been white hot for 15 years and will be for another 15.
Turns out for urban 604 dirt the old adage ‘buy now or be priced out forever’ was, and remains, the absolute truth.

#73 Ronaldo on 12.17.15 at 7:42 pm

#62 wonthappenhere

”houses sell here as soon as they are listed. sold signs on every block and we are talking 1.2 million for a dump near the pne and 2.5 million for a dump on the west side.”

I can’t imagine doctors, lawyers or high end wage earners living in these dumps as you call them, so who is buying them and for what purpose?

#74 CalgaryHappyRenterNowTraveling on 12.17.15 at 7:45 pm

#38 bigtowne
How to avoir 2.5% exchange fees with credit cards?
———————-
Order Visa Amazon credit card managed by Chase Canada.
I used it in South East Asia in Spring and currently in Uruguay, Argentina and Chile.
No 2.5% exchange fees.

By the way, nice drop of Argentina peso today. Great for Canadian travelers….

Follow Garth advice. It’s working.

#75 IKnow on 12.17.15 at 7:48 pm

Reading Hong Kong housing news, some sellers are cutting prices by 15% from highest point.

How yvr may be affected?
First, the closest thing to fundamental values for yvr house prices has to be Hong Kong and China real estates values.
But would price reduction there lead to the same thing here?
Not clear.
Reason 1: prices in Hong Kong have been even much crazier than at YVR.
People there will sink $600k CAD for a mediocre low level small condo in non-sexy suburb.
So at least double or triple crazy.

Second: CAD $ is coming down, so prices in Canada look cheap to chinese or americans.

#76 Ex-Cowtown on 12.17.15 at 7:48 pm

I think we are very close to the bottom in oil prices, and with that a bottom in the loonie. The reasons are:

1. Everybody is predicting that oil will fall into the $20’s and stay low for years.

These types of predictions usually occur at market tops/bottoms. Last one was June 2014 when “everyone” said oil was going to $200/bbl. I call these We’ll All Be Killed!!! statements and they typically mark a top or bottom.

2. Saudi Arabia cannot afford to keep playing chicken by keeping the price low forever. Like all socialist experiments, eventually they run out of money. They need $100+ oil to keep their budgets in balance. Eventually they’ll have to throw in the towel. The question is when.

3. The developing world will continue to develop and have an insatiable oil appetite, despite what the eco-nutters think. This will likely spike the oil price well above the $100/bbl price.

4. The present supply demand imbalance is only about +1.4 million barrels/day. This is expected to drop by 66% in 2016. To put this into perspective, in 1986 the supply demand imbalance was around 16 million barrels/day. We are on the razor’s edge now, and a slight increase in demand or drop in supply will shift the pendulum remarkably.

5. Lifting of oil export restrictions in the US will help Canada. Selling oil to developing nations at world prices will be a good thing, similar to the removal of internal price controls and oil patch specific taxes that the T1’s National Energy Program. The NEP shackled and blee Alberta so that drivers in Ontario could get subsidies and be shielded from world price oil.

Je me souviens.

Anyway, I don’t think this thing will last too much longer. 6 months, 1 year max.

#77 Sharmala on 12.17.15 at 7:49 pm

“Unlikely. But a balanced, globally-diversified portfolio is the best approach in a volatile, uncertain world. — Garth”
————–
Sounds good. But, does this mean changing currencies now? Especially 20% to US$?

#78 chin up on 12.17.15 at 7:49 pm

“too great a reliance on rocks and trees”

Canadians have shown that we can’t compete in high tech, aerospace, green or space exploration. Rocks and trees are the only thing we can do. So chin up Garth.

#79 will on 12.17.15 at 7:52 pm

Funny title from G&M Rob Carrick today: “In light of the U.S. Fed hike, it’s time to revisit debt loads”

Actually Rob, the time to revisit debt loads was some years ago if not continuously. Hahahahaha.

#80 ANON on 12.17.15 at 7:52 pm

#12 Kevin Sam on 12.17.15 at 5:58 pm

Over the past two years I’ve continued to tell anyone who’d listen to get out of Canada.

Honest question, Kevin: no debt, no attachments, already left the native place, pretty much free as a bird (painful bit manageable).
So, where to, buddy?

#81 Daisy Mae on 12.17.15 at 7:55 pm

#1: Old Man Too on 12.17.15 at 5:44 pm

“Hi Garth, I’m back. Notice the spike in readership?”

******************

Is this who I think it is? Only Garth knows for sure….

#82 Alberta Ed on 12.17.15 at 7:59 pm

At least Canadian Tire money doesn’t lose its value.

#83 For this about to flop... on 12.17.15 at 7:59 pm

Poor ol Doomer Gloomer is probably eating cat food for dinner.
Admittedly it will probably be mixed in with caviar and foie gras.
I think he’ll survive!

#84 bdy sktrn on 12.17.15 at 8:00 pm

#42 For those about to flop… on 12.17.15 at 6:40 pm
You will know with no uncertain doubt that the madness is over in Vancouver when a developer buys a knock down 50 year old bungalow and replaces it with a new energy efficienct bungalow
———————————
it will be same day the #1 highway goes back to 2 lanes with no HOV, YVR goes back to one runway, and false creek goes back to being an insustrial wasteland!

#85 Godth on 12.17.15 at 8:03 pm

#78 chin up on 12.17.15 at 7:49 pm

We (your owners) don’t need you getting uppity. Just keep sending our industry the resources we need and quit whining. If you need to vent just repeat the mantra Avro Arrow until you remember your place. If that fails you could try NorthCom until you come to your senses.

#86 Daisy Mae on 12.17.15 at 8:03 pm

#11: “One day the company announced that the limitless ore they thought was in the ground was nearly depleted and they would close the mine in 3 months….”

*****************

Brenda Mines….in what is now ‘West Kelowna’. Many forced into early retirement. There was a program to council employees. However, who wants a 50-year-old trucker? Sad.

#87 Investorz on 12.17.15 at 8:04 pm

RatesSpy on Twitter says some big banks just increased their fixed-rate mortgage rates.

#88 Only-inflation-to-reduce-debt-burden on 12.17.15 at 8:04 pm

Says here that Toronto & Vancouver are international cities… and still way undervalued… How on earth can you think the US needs tightening…???????

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/ben-myers/toronto-vancouver-real-estate_b_8810878.html

Look who wrote it. Ben Myers is a career builder/developer/marketer. — Garth

#89 Sebee on 12.17.15 at 8:05 pm

Sorry Garth, it was an official news website and link. I wasn’t trying to be rude.

#90 wonthappenhere on 12.17.15 at 8:09 pm

#73 ronaldo
#62 wonthappenhere

”houses sell here as soon as they are listed. sold signs on every block and we are talking 1.2 million for a dump near the pne and 2.5 million for a dump on the west side.”

I can’t imagine doctors, lawyers or high end wage earners living in these dumps as you call them, so who is buying them and for what purpose?

well….its not doctors and lawyers buying them as they most likely can’t afford to. and they are dumps..go onto mls.ca and see for yourself. wake up ronaldo. the buyers are who garth doesn’t think are a factor here. i know they are 90% of the reason……i just look out my window. I’m happy because i paid 390k for my 33 foot lot with a 1940s bungalow in 1999 and i can sell it tomorrow for 2.5 million. sure , its bad for the city but who cares…im rich and getting richer.

#91 White Crock BC on 12.17.15 at 8:10 pm

waiting on the westcoast on 12.17.15 at 7:35 pm

Just like in the late 90s / early 00s… The lower dollar pulls away the very people who could create entire industries of high paying jobs…

————————————————-

Not just AI, but physicians, engineers, and artistic talent as well.

It’s too easy for the US to take our best. Easy for them to go. I would if I could.

Canada is screwed and there is no realistic way to fix it.

#92 For this about to flop... on 12.17.15 at 8:11 pm

#84 bdy sktrn on 12.17.15 at 8:00 pm
#42 For those about to flop… on 12.17.15 at 6:40 pm
You will know with no uncertain doubt that the madness is over in Vancouver when a developer buys a knock down 50 year old bungalow and replaces it with a new energy efficienct bungalow
———————————
it will be same day the #1 highway goes back to 2 lanes with no HOV, YVR goes back to one runway, and false creek goes back to being an insustrial wasteland!
///////////////////////////////////////
You see what I’m getting at though?

#93 Daisy Mae on 12.17.15 at 8:12 pm

Well, technically, it was Peachland, BC – population, 5000 ….and not growing. LOL

#94 USA USA USA on 12.17.15 at 8:14 pm

The 5.2 Billion Rogers NHL TV contract is paid in Canadian dollars with no allowances for currency fluctuations, NHL commissioner Gary Bettman declined to say how much the currency issue will cost the league this season.
Canada’s dollar hit an 11-year low against its U.S. counterpart on Monday at 72.77 cents U.S means no NHL salary cap increase. no Las Vegas / Seattle/ Quebec expansion.
Toronto and Vancouver could crater the NHL’s 2016 finances as the 7 Canadian teams provide 35% of league revenue

#95 Herf on 12.17.15 at 8:15 pm

then we might as well start using Canadian Tire money.”

At what value of the loonie do we switch over? And at what value do we subsequently switch over to Monopoly or Zimbawe money?

#96 wonthappenhere on 12.17.15 at 8:19 pm

#73 ronaldo
#62 wonthappenhere

”houses sell here as soon as they are listed. sold signs on every block and we are talking 1.2 million for a dump near the pne and 2.5 million for a dump on the west side.”

I can’t imagine doctors, lawyers or high end wage earners living in these dumps as you call them, so who is buying them and for what purpose?

here are 2 such examples. 1 on the ‘posh westside’ and 1 deep in east van

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/16090570/3365-VALLEY-DRIVE-Vancouver-British-Columbia-V6L2K1

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/16436480/1036-NOOTKA-STREET-Vancouver-British-Columbia-V5K4E7

#97 bdy sktrn on 12.17.15 at 8:19 pm

#73 Ronaldo on 12.17.15 at 7:42 pm
#62 wonthappenhere

”houses sell here as soon as they are listed. sold signs on every block and we are talking 1.2 million for a dump near the pne and 2.5 million for a dump on the west side.”

I can’t imagine doctors, lawyers or high end wage earners living in these dumps as you call them, so who is buying them and for what purpose?
——————————
docs, dentists, forensic accountants, stock brokers, well paid jr junior executives, financial professionals, successful actors/tv/media people are the crowd who had been buying these ‘dumps’ hand over fist for the last 7 years in this east van hood. but most of the time they lose out as they stand little chance against the developers.

what purpose? to live/raise families/ play and commute where no bridge crossing is required to get to work.

#98 espressobob on 12.17.15 at 8:21 pm

#68 Ronaldo

Oh, please, not the gold and silver will save us thing again? Reading Sprotts thoughts?

http://cms.sprottglobal.com/thoughts/articles/marc-faber-as-global-economic-conditions-become-worse%E2%80%94central-banks-will-print-more-money/

Did it ever cross ones mind just how these individuals became filthy rich?

Having a position in the TSX composite index provides all the exposure an investor needs through the miners with regard to commodities.

But just to be fair, some may feel the need to own physical PMs, just in case the world ends.

https://www.scotiamocatta-estore.scotiabank.com/stores/scotiamocatta/catalog/FeaturedProducts.aspx

#99 Maximilian on 12.17.15 at 8:26 pm

“Unlikely. But a balanced, globally-diversified portfolio is the best approach in a volatile, uncertain world. — Garth”

“Sounds good. But, does this mean changing currencies now? Especially 20% to US$? – Sharmala”
————————-
Garth, I remember last year you responding to a similar question by saying “you don’t have to do it”. You seemed to imply that there are other ways to invest in US equities (etfs) without buying US bucks? Do you still believe that this is possible?

#100 TRT on 12.17.15 at 8:27 pm

All Metro detached will be over $1 Million in a few years.

Buy now or never.

Wait and see.

#101 Winterpeg on 12.17.15 at 8:28 pm

Ronaldo #68
I believe silver (poor man’s gold) is a better investment alternative to gold because there is less of it and also because of its industrial uses……….That’s where I will be concentrating the 5 to 10% of my portfolio in the coming weeks.

In what form did you purchase silver? stocks? bullion?

#102 Lobster Man on 12.17.15 at 8:28 pm

#10 – Vancouver RE on 12.17.15 at 5:56 pm

“……..Any redevelopment lot (older home) that has land for a larger house to be built on goes quick.”

But my observations have been rather different: Perhaps you can help and explain to me why a larger redevelopment lot (Approx. 8000 sq. ft.) in the Oakridge area on Alberta Street (near West 47th Avenue) has remained UNSOLD after being listed for over TWO months. I believe the asking price is not out of line with the pending/latest assessment value for the said property.

#103 To #76 ex-cotown on 12.17.15 at 8:30 pm

Jim Chanos has a warning for OPEC members: Pump oil now because it might not be worth much in 15 years.

The hedge fund manager was on CNBC on Thursday night, and was asked about the oil price.

“It’s down an awful lot,” he said. “Having said that, I think if you were to look out five or 10 years, if I was a member of OPEC I would be pumping as much as I could today while it’s worth something because it might not be worth a whole lot by 2030.”

He added that he was short “all of the major leveraged oil companies,” without naming any names.

The reason for his bearishness on the oil price is the rise of solar and the advent of the electric car.

He said:

I think what’s going to happen, what is really fascinating, is that you’re going to see this connection between solar and electric vehicles, and I think that’s one of the more interest things that not a lot of people are [talking about].

He added:

Imagine a world in which most of the vehicles are electric and yet they are powered off the grid by natural gas and solar. So you reduce coal emissions and you reduce burning oil. Eighty percent of all petroleum demand is transportation.

Many Canadian oil investor can kiss Obama’s ass with a big thank you for preventing them losing their shirt on Keystone.

#104 waiting on the westcoast on 12.17.15 at 8:32 pm

#72 bdy sktrn says… “when you have a dozen or so different mobs all pouring cash into the 604 you can spare a few mobs cooling off as there will be hot ones to replace them. This is why van has been white hot for 15 years and will be for another 15. Turns out for urban 604 dirt the old adage ‘buy now or be priced out forever’ was, and remains, the absolute truth.”

5% doesn’t make the market…. You can swap out fear stories of Chinese or Russians or Persians but the fact remains that people are buying without regard to value on the hopes of the market rising… There are cycles to everything (even YVR RE) and you are now watching the tide crest.

I saw people in Portland, Seattle, SF (in 2008-12) make the same arguments. Funny how the “hordes” quit showing up when the price correction began… Investment moved to other jurisdictions or asset classes.

Don’t get me wrong, Vancouver is an amazing place and will always be a high priced city relative to the rest of Canada. But don’t confuse the insane valuations due to emergency levels of interest rates as the new normal… The locals will not buy when the market shifts and they represent 95% of the market. The foreigners won’t buy either as they will go to other places/assets that are then growing in full swing.

#105 Consequences | Realties.ca on 12.17.15 at 8:35 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/12/17/consequences-7/ […]

#106 Estrella on 12.17.15 at 8:36 pm

#19 Darryl,

If you are referring to “Ask O’leary” question posed yesterday to kevin on BNN, the caller did not specify “Rate-reset Pref”.

Kevin answered based on pref. ETF solely. IMO.

Garth has mentioned that this “rate reset” prefs are good buying options at this point in rate history.

I trust Garth’s knowledge wayyyy ahead of Kevin’s.

#107 bdy sktrn on 12.17.15 at 8:38 pm

larger redevelopment lot (Approx. 8000 sq. ft.) in the Oakridge area on Alberta Street (near West 47th Avenue) has remained UNSOLD after being listed for over TWO months
———————————-
better take a look outside for a sold sticker as it’s certainly not on mls right now.

#108 Edith on 12.17.15 at 8:40 pm

#101 Lobster Man

“But my observations have been rather different: Perhaps you can help and explain to me why a larger redevelopment lot (Approx. 8000 sq. ft.) in the Oakridge area on Alberta Street (near West 47th Avenue) has remained UNSOLD after being listed for over TWO months. I believe the asking price is not out of line with the pending/latest assessment value for the said property.”
………………………………………………………………
An 8000 square foot lot is not very big. You can’t redevelop it into a larger estate like home. What’s the exact address?

#109 Harper's Magic wand on 12.17.15 at 8:42 pm

#12 Kevin Sam on 12.17.15 at 5:58 pm

You can enjoy that.

#110 Herf on 12.17.15 at 8:46 pm

Correction to my previous post: I meant “Zimbabwe” money.

#111 NoOneOfConsequence on 12.17.15 at 8:47 pm

LOL! Gold and silver!
How’s that ‘wealth protection plan’ working out for you?
I guess you are saved from ‘fiat of evil’…after all…you have about 40% less fiat after buying your rocks and watching their value plummet!!!

I find it interesting that people still trust the government, banking, and real estate industries to provide them with accurate projections on real estate values.

The facts are in…the edges in greater Vancouver are starting to fray. Seeing weakness in condos all over the suburbs. (Living the hell of new condos coming on line selling for less than what was paid 3 years ago…)

Time to cash in your chips folks….the casino is closing soon.

#112 Bram on 12.17.15 at 8:49 pm

#101 Lobster Man on 12.17.15 at 8:28 pm
…why a larger redevelopment lot (Approx. 8000 sq. ft.) in the Oakridge area on Alberta Street (near West 47th Avenue) has remained UNSOLD after being listed for over TWO months.

Hey, that’s in my hood :-)
Although I am in the cheap section, east of Ontario st.

I don’t see it listed on mls.ca, is it listed somewhere else?

Not sure why that would not get picked up. But I do know that some sellers will not sell at asking price, and use a lower asking to draw bidders. Maybe the seller is too greedy in the negotiations.

Bram

#113 Drill Baby Drill on 12.17.15 at 8:50 pm

Dear Pathetic Blog:
Talk about giving it to us with both barrels today. We are truly sexually intercoursed here in the great white north.

#114 bdy sktrn on 12.17.15 at 8:50 pm

#102 To #76 ex-cotown on 12.17.15 at 8:30 pm
Jim Chanos has a warning for OPEC members: Pump oil now because it might not be worth much in 15 years.

The reason for his bearishness on the oil price is the rise of solar and the advent of the electric car.
————————
thanks for pointing this out as now i can be certain that
mr chanos is either monumentally stupid or purposefully fraudulent.

If we covered every square inch of vancouver with solar panels we’d likely still be short of power to run just our transit system. (and have no sun ever)

private cars, taxis, delivery trucks, limos of the rich and famous, school buses etc. will all run on mr chanos’s glaring ignorance or magic fairy dust!

#115 bdy sktrn on 12.17.15 at 8:52 pm

#107 Edith on 12.17.15 at 8:40 pm
#101 Lobster Man
………………………………………………
An 8000 square foot lot is not very big.

————————–
in van 4000sqft is good for a duplex with a laneway house. or 3 units.

#116 Imbalanced economy on 12.17.15 at 8:54 pm

#48 richard leblond on 12.17.15 at 6:48 pm
The problem with Canada’s Economy is the Reformist Harper Government did nothing except focus on oil and keystone, oh and the “Economic Action Plan” Bwa ha ha

——

This concept would never fit in the small c size brain.

#117 Leo Trollstoy on 12.17.15 at 8:54 pm

I thought that a $15/HR minimum wage had little impact on small business entrepreneurs and the economy?

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/premier+says+2415+hour+minimum+wage+27notional+target+suggests/11594869/story.html

#118 Leo Trollstoy on 12.17.15 at 8:59 pm

An 8000 square foot lot is not very big.

Seems big enough in Toronto.

https://www.realtor.ca/propertydetails.aspx?ref=C3371707&boardid=82

#119 NoName on 12.17.15 at 9:01 pm

On a bright note we can always use canadian tire money to get some cheap sun glasses.

https://youtu.be/97bMX7KV8d4

and this, day late but that’s ok, i guess
Pcatdolls

When I grow up
I wanna be famous
I wanna be a star
I wanna be in movies
When I grow up
I wanna see the world
Drive nice cars
I wanna have groupies
When I grow up
Be on TV
People know me
Be on magazines
When I grow up
Fresh and clean
Number one chick when I step out on the scene

https://youtu.be/K0K46C82v9o

#120 Leo Trollstoy on 12.17.15 at 9:01 pm

Jim Chanos has a warning for OPEC members: Pump oil now because it might not be worth much in 15 years.

I hope he’s right.

#121 Ret on 12.17.15 at 9:05 pm

Reality check.

The biggest impact on your family, finances and quality of life are the decisions made by the provincial and local municipal governments and not the diabolical Stephen Harper.

Soaring water and sewage rates, municipal taxes, health care taxes, gridlock, hydro rates, sales taxes, restrictive trade and business regulations etc. are why industries are leaving and why the middle class is struggling and we haven’t even started with the carbon taxes yet.

It can only get better and better for Canadians. If what we are doing is not working, then the answer must be to do more of it???

As a country, we only have a little time left to get back on track. Canada used to have the skills and factories to make virtually anything. In a few years we will have lost what is left of the skills and the factories.

The US economy has always floated our boat when our economy faltered. If all we can offer the US is a 60-70 cent dollar, they’ll be opening new plants in Mexico or China.

Donald Trump wants to make America great again and, damn the torpedoes, he will do whatever it takes. He may make President, who knows? Stranger things have happened, like $35 a barrel oil for instance.

I love the Donald’s vision and determination though. It reminds me of the way Canada used to be.

#122 Rookie57 on 12.17.15 at 9:05 pm

Vancouver RE has had an excellent run. For those who have experienced the increase it is great news. However, if you haven’t locked in the gains by crystallizing them then you have not realized any profit. RE is illiquid so one cannot always sell at a moments notice (Yes, I know Vancouver is the exception at the moment). Buying in at or near the peak of any market is usually a high risk bet. As a result, our host (the great bearded one who runs this pathetic blog) has continued to exhort the benefits of liquidity, balance, and diversification as a much lower risk option. Markets can turn quickly, especially near tops. Remember, markets look great until they don’t – even RE in Vancouver.

#123 Edith on 12.17.15 at 9:05 pm

#110 NoOneOfConsequence

“The facts are in…the edges in greater Vancouver are starting to fray. Seeing weakness in condos all over the suburbs. (Living the hell of new condos coming on line selling for less than what was paid 3 years ago…)

Time to cash in your chips folks….the casino is closing soon.”
…………………………………….
I’m not sure what suburb you’re living in? Maybe Chilliwack or Hope? Because if you’re talking about Burnaby, Surrey, Ladner, Delta, Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam, Langley, White Rock, Tswassen, Langley or even Abbotsford – it’s not slowing down.

#124 Go with the flow on 12.17.15 at 9:06 pm

#114

If we covered every square inch of vancouver with solar panels we’d likely still be short of power to run just our transit system. (and have no sun ever)

private cars, taxis, delivery trucks, limos of the rich and famous, school buses etc. will all run on mr chanos’s glaring ignorance or magic fairy dust!

—-

You are not listening… What is the TG mantra?
Never bet against the US…

http://www.businessinsider.com/map-shows-solar-panels-to-power-the-earth-2015-9

#125 Tony on 12.17.15 at 9:08 pm

Re: #10 Vancouver RE on 12.17.15 at 5:56 pm

The opposite is true about the Canadian dollar. It would only benefit buyers who put down the absolute minimum down payment when buying a home from China. As the Canadian dollar falls they owe less on their mortgage. Conversely any person paying all cash when buying a house from China is losing a fortune as the Canadian dollar falls. That’s assuming the Yuan is strengthening against the Canadian dollar in the future.

#126 espressobob on 12.17.15 at 9:08 pm

Something I forgot to mention since this is old news anyways, and this investor moved on long ago from the PM hype. Thanks Garth.

This might be of interest for those getting horny for silver.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/eric-sprott-sells-big-chunk-of-silver-trust-units/article11157109/

Ever heard of going short?

#127 David W on 12.17.15 at 9:09 pm

Thank you for all your great insight each day, keep it coming!

#128 Leo Trollstoy on 12.17.15 at 9:12 pm

Not in my wildest dreams would I have guessed the CAD would fall from $0.86 USD to $0.72 USD in 2015.

Why does the CAD suck so bad?

Oh yeah. I don’t care because the only thing I own are U.S. rentals.

Down we go!

#129 Lobster Man on 12.17.15 at 9:15 pm

“Approx. 8000 sq. ft. lot…..”

The address is: 6241 Alberta St., Vancouver.
……and it is within the “sizzling” Cambie Corridor Phase 3 Zone.

#130 wonthappenhere on 12.17.15 at 9:19 pm

this is a nice starter home near pne….and no, its not on the park thats just a nearby park. buy now…it will be 2 million within 5 years.

https://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/16319782/2862-ETON-STREET-Vancouver-British-Columbia-V5K1K5

#131 Curious George on 12.17.15 at 9:22 pm

Garth:

It seems like a pretty common question lately – on this blog anyways. What do new investors do to invest in the US without exchanging at these low rates?

An answer might be in order, especially when all the Canadian home owners sell and are looking to invest their nest egg.

#132 Moses71 on 12.17.15 at 9:25 pm

Wow, way to go for the U.S.
Makes you wonder why Canada didn’t start normalizing rates when they could have under the Cons gov’t?
Too late now.

#133 Leo U.S. Rentals on 12.17.15 at 9:26 pm

Leo trollstoy

Oh yeah. I don’t care because the only thing I own are U.S. rentals

—-

We don’t care either. You can stop mentioning it 5 times a day. Unless you are a retard , then it’s all right.

#134 Yaley on 12.17.15 at 9:27 pm

#127 Lobster Man

“The address is: 6241 Alberta St., Vancouver.
……and it is within the “sizzling”
——————-
The Listing has SOLD

#135 Alvina Knows on 12.17.15 at 9:30 pm

#38 bigtowne on 12.17.15 at 6:31 pm

For US travel (or anywhere outside Canada) get an Amazon (Chase) Visa.

Chase does not charge the exchange fee for this card. Take a bit of US cash and put everything else on the card. It also gives 1% rewards.

#136 Leo Trollstoy on 12.17.15 at 9:32 pm

We don’t care either. You can stop mentioning it 5 times a day. Unless you are a retard , then it’s all right.

Hey look over here. I found a poster who cares about my U.S. rentals!

I make U.S. dollars. Monthly.

Just wanted to let you know that.

Lol

#137 Todd Harvey on 12.17.15 at 9:32 pm

#38 Bigtown
Best credit card for cross border purchases is Amazon visa.There is no 2.5% charge for purchases or refunds.Also all puchases on Amazon get 2% rebate and all other purchases get 1%.I switched after TD visa ripped me 2.5% on flight cancellations.This is the best deal around and nobody seems to know about it. It operates through Chase Bank.

#138 Tony on 12.17.15 at 9:35 pm

Re: #64 usa rocks…go babe…. on 12.17.15 at 7:23 pm

No one will come out of the woodwork. When one Chinaman buys they all buy, when one Chinaman stops buying they all stop buying. You just haven’t seen the last part happen yet but it will.

#139 bdy sktrn on 12.17.15 at 9:41 pm

#127 Lobster Man on 12.17.15 at 9:15 pm

The address is: 6241 Alberta St., Vancouver.
……and it is within the “sizzling” Cambie Corridor Phase 3 Zone.
————————
across the street from alleyway pointing straight into the house.

very bad feng-shui, very bad.

no wonder it took so long to sell, with only about 10% of that area’s buyers non chinese.

#140 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 12.17.15 at 9:41 pm

#33

The bond market is saying that Garth is correct about the FED rates because the 2yr t-bill two years in advance shows that the FED is actually behind the curve and the overnight rate should be 1%.

Unless, this time is different, which it…

#141 csarichardo on 12.17.15 at 9:41 pm

We need to raise rates.
*
A low dollar encourages fire sales of Canadian corporate assets to global hedge funds (real private money) or the global 2% ??!
*
Of course it might kill some marginal oil/gas/realestate companies but why would the central bank not just do a “no need to mark to market for 5 years” routine ???!!

#142 wonthappenhere on 12.17.15 at 9:43 pm

#127 Lobster Man

“The address is: 6241 Alberta St., Vancouver.
……and it is within the “sizzling”
——————-
The Listing has SOLD

yes it has….no brainer……6241 alberta st.

https://www.zolo.ca/vancouver-real-estate/6241-alberta-street

listed at $2,588,000 in Oct. 2015 ….MLS# R2008437
re-priced at $2,688,000 a few weeks later ( lots of 8’s ….lucky! )

house has sold- very typical. it will be torn down, replaced with a large ugly , poorly built house and will be sold to someone that doesn’t live here for around $4,000,000 within the year. the new house will remain vacant.

bc assessment as of july ……$1,978,000 ( house valued at 21,000 )
previous year assessed at….$1,771,000 ( house valued at 22,000 )

And you see no risk here? — Garth

#143 genbizx on 12.17.15 at 9:43 pm

# 10 Vancouver real estate

so ya, you really would sell out your fellow canucks to keep making yer shady buck…

who cares if most locals can no longer afford to raise a family there. greedy, short sighted, and hopefully, short lived…we need less realtors and more people actually creating value..

#144 family beagle on 12.17.15 at 9:43 pm

604, 416 = tax lambs to the slaughter. It’s not cheap to babysit urban frolickers playing house in a recession. It takes a lot of governing. Welcome to economic engine status.

#145 Seabear on 12.17.15 at 9:44 pm

Here’s a funny for you:

Bob, a middle-aged Canadian tourist on his first time in Lincoln, Nebraska,
locates the red light district and enters a large brothel.
The madam asks him to be seated and sends over a young lady to entertain the
client. They sit and talk, frolic a little, giggle a bit, drink a bit, and
she sits on his lap. He whispers in her ear and she gasps and runs away!

Seeing this, the madam sends over a more experienced lady to entertain the
gentleman. They sit and talk, frolic a little, giggle a bit, drink a bit,
and she sits on his lap. He whispers in her ear and she screams, No!” and
walks quickly away!

The madam is surprised that this ordinary looking man has asked for
something so outrageous that her two girls will have nothing to do with it.

She decides that only her most experienced lady, Lola, will do. Lola looks a
bit tired, but she has never said no and it doesn’t seem likely that
anything would surprise her. So the madam sends her over to Bob.

They sit and talk, frolic a little, giggle a bit, drink a bit, and she sits
on his lap. He whispers in her ear and she screams, “NO WAY, BUDDY!” smacks
him as hard as she can and literally runs away!

Madam is by now absolutely intrigued, having seen nothing like this in all
her years of operating a brothel. She hasn’t done the bedroom work herself
for a long time, but she did it for many years before she got into
management. She’s sure she has said yes at one time or another to everything
a man could possibly ask for. The challenge is irresistible.

She just has to find out what this man has wanted that has made her girls so
angry. And she sees a chance she can’t pass up to show off to her employees
how good she was at what they do.

So she goes over to Bob and says that she’s the best in the house and she is
available. She sits and talks with him. They frolic a bit, giggle a bit,
and drink a little, and she sits in his lap. And Bob leans forward and
whispers in her ear, “Can I pay in Canadian dollars?”

#146 The blackest days on 12.17.15 at 9:45 pm

Poor resident smokey alien…
It must be an other intervention night.

#147 Wallabe on 12.17.15 at 9:46 pm

“The opposite is true about the Canadian dollar. It would only benefit buyers who put down the absolute minimum down payment when buying a home from China. As the Canadian dollar falls they owe less on their mortgage. Conversely any person paying all cash when buying a house from China is losing a fortune as the Canadian dollar falls. That’s assuming the Yuan is strengthening against the Canadian dollar in the future.”
***********************
Tony are you actually Mark in dusguise. Chase yiu’re not making much sense either.

#148 Lobster Man on 12.17.15 at 9:48 pm

#127 Yaley on 12.17.15 at 9:27 pm

Thanks for the info. And I will try to find out the relevant details…..how long (since Oct.), and how much…..

#149 Nemesis on 12.17.15 at 9:51 pm

#ConsequencesRedux,Or… #ATaleOfRoustabouts&Zambonis

“Meanwhile the problems with our economy are structural – too great a reliance on rocks and trees, too much debt…”… HonGT

“It didn’t come as a surprise,” said Gerald Meyer, 79. “We knew they were financially strapped.”

[TimesColonist] – Mariner’s Village in Sooke goes into receivership

…Mariner’s Village was billed as Sooke’s largest-ever construction project, but it stalled after the first residential phase of its multi-stage plan on 12 acres…

http://www.timescolonist.com/business/mariner-s-village-in-sooke-goes-into-receivership-1.2135009

#150 Other Brother Darryl on 12.17.15 at 9:53 pm

#12 Kevin Sam on 12.17.15 at 5:58 pm

Over the past two years I’ve continued to tell anyone who’d listen to get out of Canada. If you haven’t, reap the whirlwind baby ’cause it’s straight down the toilet from here. Anyone but me notice, that as soon as Harper stopped waving his magic wand, the country has leapt off a cliff and literally everything is simultaneously swirling down the crapper? You might have ‘Hated Harper’, but nothing like this ever happened on his watch. Quick, take a selfie with Justin.
—————————–
When you say “get out of Canada”, do you mean financially, or physically? Are you actually suggesting that if Harper was still PM, things would be ok? And if you were predicting this 2 years ago… what was Harper doing about it? Answer: Absolutely nothing.

You’re a riot, Kevin.

TIP: Maybe let Garth run the predictions. He has numbers and charts…. you have 20/20 hindsight.

#151 young & foolish on 12.17.15 at 9:56 pm

So blog dogs …. houses are over-valued, but stocks are not? Give your head a shake …

Stocks don’t have mortgages, property tax bills, strata fees, closing costs, realtor commissions or utility costs. Houses do not pay dividends, or allow you to exit in three seconds. Besides, smart investors do not buy individual stocks, but have a balance and diversity of assets. On top of that, S&P valuations are far, far from bubble territory. Try to outlive your name. — Garth

#152 Armando on 12.17.15 at 9:56 pm

Garth is testosterone filled Genius (or not, I’ll tell you in a couple of years – but so far so good)!

#153 Vundo on 12.17.15 at 9:58 pm

RE: buy now or buy never
Let us assume this is true. I still think the rational choice is buy never. Being debt free and able to turn my assets into cash at the drop of a hat, and still have my home to live in, that is well worth the rent I pay. Brag about your house value all you want. Nothing makes me want to be illiquid. Nothing makes me want to turn away from being free of debt. Neither pride nor ludicrous numbers on paper can compare.

#154 young & foolish on 12.17.15 at 10:01 pm

“Oh yeah. I don’t care because the only thing I own are U.S. rentals”

People pay rent on both sides of the border … if you bought well here, you can wait out the “downturn” like preferreds (remember, they PAY you to own them).

#155 Calgary on 12.17.15 at 10:02 pm

#12 Kevin Sam.

Get out of Canada? No way. I was born in USA and escaped. The USA is a police state. Sure the warm weather is nice and the cost of living is cheaper in some respects, however there are many other factors. Depends on your viewpoint. I like Canada better.

People forget that all these problems are simply a training ground for the after life. Life is a probationary state. Dont worry about things. You have to know the problems before you have the skills to handle paradise in your own world that you chose before you came here.

#156 John in Mtl on 12.17.15 at 10:15 pm

#133 Armando on 12.17.15 at 9:56 pm

Garth is testosterone filled Genius (or not, I’ll tell you in a couple of years – but so far so good)!

Oh, you have an affair with Garth? Who would have thought LOL

PS: I hope you have a twisted sense of humour and won’t delete me, Mr Turner.

#157 Sean on 12.17.15 at 10:16 pm

Freedom First your shtick is old. You know, being a man means taking care of other people.. it’s as simple as that. Your endless crap about only looking after yourself is pathetic.. it’s the life of a child. Human relationships.. a wife, a child.. it’s what makes a life worth living.

I dunno.. I agree with what you say about financial freedom. Just think it’s sad that you seem to think it applies to relationships. Oh well.

#158 John in Mtl on 12.17.15 at 10:16 pm

Further to my post: “I guess one has to be balanced and diversified” in more ways than one -;)

#159 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 12.17.15 at 10:23 pm

“On top of that, S&P valuations are far, far from bubble territory. -Garth”

I hope you are not basing that assumption on forward earnings, which themselves are notoriously mean reverting.

On the other hand, based on Tobin’s Q, market Cap to GDP, CAPE etc… the S&P is obscenely over valued. Don’t take my word for it since there are serious commentators like John Hussman:

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc151116.htm

or Jeremy Grantham at GMO

https://www.gmo.com/docs/default-source/public-commentary/gmo-quarterly-letter.pdf?sfvrsn=20

Look at this. — Garth

#160 Sean on 12.17.15 at 10:25 pm

@#52 BC Guy
“the 1% control much of the real estate, particularly the large rural acreages”

——

Dude, it’s a free country.. and a free market. Rural acreages in Canada are dirt cheap… if you want one, buy one. And there is a reason they are cheap.. no-one wants them! They are frozen half the year, the land is unproductive.. dude, you should see land prices in countries elsewhere.. much higher! If your itch is for muskeg, go for it.. it’s yours for the taking.

#161 Kenchie on 12.17.15 at 10:29 pm

Interesting read…

“Commodities Bust? Love it”

http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2015-12-17/how-i-learned-to-stop-worrying-and-love-the-mining-bust

#162 young & restless on 12.17.15 at 10:30 pm

“Stocks don’t have mortgages, property tax bills, strata fees, closing costs, realtor commissions or utility costs. Houses do not pay dividends, or allow you to exit in three seconds. Besides, smart investors do not buy individual stocks, but have a balance and diversity of assets. On top of that, S&P valuations are far, far from bubble territory. Try to outlive your name. — Garth”
-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-..-.-.-.-
Houses don’t have capital gain taxes, you can live in it, raise your family there, have a dog, no advisor fees, and they always go up just like stock markets.

There are no cap gains within certain registered accounts, and portfolios pay you income that can be used to help house your family. BTW, advisor fees of 1% are tax-deductible. Mortgages of 3% are not. You will learn as you reach puberty that it is not a contest between real estate and financial assets. It’s about balance. — Garth

#163 Yuus bin Haad on 12.17.15 at 10:33 pm

Well, this should be fun: Poloz dumped the ball into Trudeau’s court and Justin just spiked it right back.

#164 family beagle on 12.17.15 at 10:37 pm

#114 bdy sktrn on 12.17.15 at 8:52 pm
in van 4000sqft is good for a duplex with a laneway house. or 3 units.

How cozy. That aroma.. are you cooking something or did I forget the oven timer again? See ya next flush.

Just kidding, I hope, Vancouver RE always seemed like a pretty expensive commune membership. Alas, I needs to run. (Well, drive… I bought a used 4×4 to putt from the backdoor to my thinkin gazebo.)

#165 BC_Doc on 12.17.15 at 10:39 pm

“So hopefully you took the advice here months ago to have at least 20% of your investment portfolio in US$ at all times.”

Garth, you may want to clarify what you mean by this for the more mathematically challenged– people should hold at least 20% of their investment portfolio in US assets. The assets don’t actually need to be priced in USD.

An example, an investor holding VTI-N (Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF) will pay for the fund with USD and the daily fund value will reprice in USD. An investor holding VUN-T (US Total Market ETF) in their TFSA will pay for the shares in Canadian dollars and the daily fund value will reprice in Canadian dollars. Both ETFs, however, hold US assets (American companies) and both their underlying values reflect the USD, despite VUN being priced in Canadian dollars.

I own both VTI and VUN spread over various accounts. Aside from dividend tax treatment and the fact that one is priced in USD and the other in Canadian dollars, these are both entirely US assets and should be considered equivalent.

Cheers,

BC Doc

A smart investor would have a healthy US asset exposure and also maintain a 20% overall US$ weighting. Now is not the time to convert, which is why I urged this years ago. — Garth

#166 bdy sktrn on 12.17.15 at 10:54 pm

#103 waiting on the westcoast on 12.17.15 at 8:32 pm

I saw people in Portland, Seattle, SF (in 2008-12) make the same arguments. Funny how the “hordes” quit showing up when the price correction began… Investment moved to other jurisdictions or asset classes.
—————————–
Portland seattle or sf were hot and then not. yes. but sea is every bit as expensive as van today.

NONE of those cities has 1/10 of the chinese flavor of van.

#167 Smoking Man on 12.17.15 at 10:59 pm

I filled up my tank in Niagara falls NY this morning.

Tank was empty, 18 bucks usd. Filled to top.

18 x 1.4 = 25.2 cad.

Same fill up at shell on browns line few days ago.
61.60 cad.

Yes fellow sheep. Our paternal govt has our back.

Thanks Wynee, Juntin.

I’m sure that’s for the environment.

#168 Sharmala on 12.17.15 at 11:01 pm

#162 BC_Doc

Thank you for providing me with that answer. That’s what I was looking for.

Garth said: “A smart investor would have a healthy US asset exposure and also maintain a 20% overall US$ weighting. Now is not the time to convert, which is why I urged this years ago.”

Thanks for ultimately answering the question. The problem is I have new money to invest but none of it in US funds.

#169 useless realtors on 12.17.15 at 11:02 pm

More then half the posters here are out of work realtors. If the market was doing well they wouldn’t be here. A Lot of hungry for money/useless eater realtors. It’s nice to see them suffer. You are hurting for money realtor and you know it. :)

#170 BC_Doc on 12.17.15 at 11:05 pm

Hi Garth,

If I had a portfolio in Canada which was 20-80 equity to fixed income and the 20% equity consisted entirely of VUN-T, my portfolio would have a 20% USD weighting, despite the asset being priced in Canadian dollars.

The investor doesn’t actually have to exchange Canadian dollars to USD then buy the asset in USD to get the USD exposure. Buying VUN in Canadian dollars is 100% equivalent to holding VTI (minus dividend tax treatment).

My point: one doesn’t actually have to hold USD or USD denominated assets to have US currency exposure. VUN is equivalent to VTI from a currency standpoint. Does that make sense?

Thanks,

BC Doc

#171 Kenchie on 12.17.15 at 11:07 pm

#10 Vancouver RE on 12.17.15 at 5:56 pm
“I’m a Vancouver realtor with a large national Real estate company – 20+ years in the business. We had our year end meeting this morning”

Vancouver RE, I’m sure you’re a nice guy and what not, but anecdotes without data to back it up is not very useful information.

Tell REBGV to provide excel spreadsheets with all their data going back as far as they have data for. It seems odd that realtors say there is a lack of housing listings yet also that there are a record number of sales. This is counterintuitive. You can’t have a sale without a listing, as I’m sure you know.

Furthermore, without data on foreign buyers, there isn’t much evidence to suggest what you say is true.

“Still very strong is money originating from Asia.”
Well, considering most people are guilty of “Confirmation Bias” when talking about foreigners. I asked my Taiwanese buddy (grew up as a satellite kid) whose been going to open houses recently “how do you know they are foreigners?” Obviously, he doesn’t know that they are and admitted that he was speculating. There are so many Mainlanders in Vancouver who have been there for many years that don’t speak english at home that you don’t really know that they are using foreign money. I bet most people in Vancouver, because they are either ignorant or racist, just a guess that they’re foreigners.

“Where for the last few years, Americans buyers have been few. Now, they’re back in big numbers. Both groups see that even if the market flattens or drops by 10%, they will be shielded by a big currency gain. ”

Well, this is straight up wrong. Under the assumption that the USD and CNY continue to strengthen against a weakening CAD, these foreigners would actually lose money on foreign exchange because they are buying an asset in a depreciating currency (at least for the foreseeable future). So you’re either expecting the CAD to increase 10% against the USD/CNY (wishful thinking) or just don’t get simple math.

#172 Sharmala on 12.17.15 at 11:09 pm

The other question I had is about preffereds. I thought your thesis about them was that when the fed started raising rates, that would effect bond yields and preferreds would rise. But here they are still near their lows.

It seems like they’re more connected with Canadian interest rate speculation or something else. What am I missing?

#173 Kenchie on 12.17.15 at 11:12 pm

#21 Shaun of the debt on 12.17.15 at 6:09 pm
“I was reading the other day about “Zombie corporations” businesses that should be dead but are alive due to low interest rates. We have a zombie real estate market.”

Yup. Zombies is one word for those highly indebted people surviving just because rates are low. The other term is “Debt slave”. Sad existence for a millennial…

#174 Ex-Cowtown on 12.17.15 at 11:14 pm

Re: Chanos on oil keeping dropping and solar and electric cars saving the world

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Places like Holland are already seeing unresolvable problems in the push to electric cars. By issuing massive subsidies, electric cars have been adopted in Holland far faster than anywhere else. This is leading to brownouts and lineups for re-charging and the need to import huge amounts of dirty coal generated electricity to backfill the problems. End result is that CO2 and other pollutants are climbing along with massive increases in power demand and poor grid stability.

This is one of those wicked problems. If a few people adopt a new technology, it looks good, but the true cost is being masked and subsidized by others. Once a critical mass is hit, the more the new technology is used, the worse it becomes for everyone. Unless the grid is revamped through something like local distributed generation using thorium reactors, it will be impossible for conventional generation (either natural gas or coal) to meet the needs. Solar is simply a non-starter and would make the grid stability even worse.

Ultimately, solar and wind are things that keep electrical engineers up at night (literally). They constantly turn off and on and destabilize and destroy the grid.

And we won’t even get into what windmills do to birds. If wind companies were held to the same standard as oil sands companies, wind company directors would be blindfolded, shot and then put on trial.

http://notrickszone.com/#sthash.NErzfnQa.4THb433o.dpbs

Even the German greenies are now calling for a moratorium on windmills.

Chanos is a goof. Kind of like Leonardo DiCaprio, but without the fashion sense.

#175 kommykim on 12.17.15 at 11:18 pm

RE:Only Bandit listens.

What about Dorothy?

#176 Human relationships.. on 12.17.15 at 11:18 pm

#157 Sean on 12.17.15 at 10:16 pm

Freedom First your shtick is old. You know, being a man means taking care of other people.. it’s as simple as that. Your endless crap about only looking after yourself is pathetic.. it’s the life of a child. Human relationships.. a wife, a child.. it’s what makes a life worth living.

I dunno.. I agree with what you say about financial freedom. Just think it’s sad that you seem to think it applies to relationships. Oh well.

===

+1

#177 Kenchie on 12.17.15 at 11:22 pm

#38 bigtowne on 12.17.15 at 6:31 pm
“Planning my trip south later in 2016 and I called TD to inquire how much I will be charged to use the debit card for withdrawals in the U.S. The answer was a bit confusing as follows: when you do withdrawals you are paying the EXCHANGE RATE difference only but if you use the debit visa card for purchases at a merchant you are charged the EXCHANGE RATE and a 2.5% rate as well.

The Bank of Nova Scotia debit card only charges the EXCHANGE RATE difference on both WITHDRAWALS and purchases not tacking on the TD 2.5% fee.

So I called and got the above confirmed and found the above unusual in that I had imagined that both TD and Scotia would be on the same page in regard to the debit card charges and withdrawals.

The plan is to use the CREDIT CARD as little as possible to avoid the additional 2.5% credit card fee. If any boomers are informed or any financial mavens have additional info please blog as any and all southern trips with our ever devaluing currency is a major concern.”

Save the hassle and get the Amazon rewards credit card. No foreign exchange fees. We have it, it’s awesome for travelling outside of Canada.:

http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/B00AFGCPZ2/ref=s9_acss_bw_hr_testCHAN_1_i/182-7224977-4612565?pf_rd_m=A3DWYIK6Y9EEQB&pf_rd_s=merchandised-search-3&pf_rd_r=1HAXMDR3N2YDNAT754J0&pf_rd_t=101&pf_rd_p=2311182862&pf_rd_i=3230544011

#178 tundra pete on 12.17.15 at 11:22 pm

#10 vancouver real estate.

Unfortunately with only 20 years in the biz you would not be familiar enough with van real estate to know what happens when markets tank. You go from living in your east van mcmansion to living in a beat up Hyundai in 12 hours

The reality is the bigger the bubble the louder the pop. Banks are only friendly when they are receiving money. Once they are forced to take it they can get nasty. You become a number on a street and they wont mention the weather. Pray it wont be prior your time when rates were 14 to 22%! That was nasty!

Chinese and many foreigners settled this whole country. Recall they brought them to construct the railway in the 1800s. They charged chinese immigrants a head tax to enter. I grew up with many great chinese families in van. As well as italians, swedes, hindus etc.

Best be prepared for anything. The bigger they are the harder they fall. Vancouver is a beutiful city dont let it chew you up and spit you out.

#179 25.2 cad vs 61.60 cad on 12.17.15 at 11:23 pm

#167 Smoking Man on 12.17.15 at 10:59 pm

I filled up my tank in Niagara falls NY this morning.

Tank was empty, 18 bucks usd. Filled to top.

18 x 1.4 = 25.2 cad.

Same fill up at shell on browns line few days ago.
61.60 cad.

Yes fellow sheep. Our paternal govt has our back.

Thanks Wynee, Juntin.

I’m sure that’s for the environment.

That price difference can’t be the tax difference.
Ask Shell…

#180 Would have lost your shirt on Keystone on 12.17.15 at 11:30 pm

#174 Ex-Cowtown on 12.17.15 at 11:14 pm

Re: Chanos on oil keeping dropping and solar and electric cars saving the world

—–

You should read the entire story:

“Don’t make shit up. I am from Holland and brownouts never happened. If we need to import electricity it comes from Norway (hydro), Germany (solar/wind) or Belgium/France (nuclear).
Electric cars can even improve grid stability because they are able to absorb peaks in production pretty easily. Right now we have enough production for peak demand, with enough storage only mean demand is important. Some grid improvements are still necessary of course.

You’re still right about your general point with the example of course. The example just doesn’t fit.”

#181 Yaley on 12.17.15 at 11:39 pm

#171 Kenchie

“It seems odd that realtors say there is a lack of housing listings yet also that there are a record number of sales. This is counterintuitive. You can’t have a sale without a listing, as I’m sure you know.”
…………………….

There are 2 types of listings. New listings and active listings. The fact of the matter is that sales as a ratio of new listings are extremely high – it’s been over 100% at times this year in certain areas. That’s why the active listing numbers are dropping. That’s not anecdotal, it’s a fact.

Foreign money from abroad continues to spill into the Vanvouver housing market. Whether it’s from residents or non residents is a mute point. What is important is that new money is entering the market. Unfortunately there is no governmentbstas on this. But talk to a few realtors, property lawyers or try walking in the British properties or Point Grey.

It’s true that foreign purchasers that bought a few years ago have lost money on the loonie if they want to sell and exchange back today. But for new purchasers with US currency or currencies linked to the US$, they are now getting a big discount. Will the loonie continue to fall heavily, rebound a little, flatline – your guess is as good as anyones. But, not many economists expect that the loonie will stay quite this low in the future years even if it’s got a little further to fall yet.

#182 45north on 12.17.15 at 11:54 pm

Leo Trollstoy: from your link “Premier Notley talks year-end”: the targets are notional

she talks the talk but you can see the fear

#183 Kenchie on 12.17.15 at 11:58 pm

#54 usa rocks…go babe…. on 12.17.15 at 7:01 pm
““So it’s reasonable to expect the cheapest rates in our lifetime are now in the rear view mirror”

personally, I think there’s a good chance we (cdn/usa) could see negative rates in the next few years. and I’ve been trying to keep my rose coloured glasses on….really.
one ‘outlier’ will be all it takes….”

Zero chance, and this is why:

1) China’s saving glut is shrinking. The aging population has a shrinking working age population (lost 7 million employees over the past 3 years!) meaning more and more people in China will need to hit their nest eggs.

2) China’s pension system will be revamped over the next couple of years to provide a more secure retirement as the country gets richer. This, slowly, will change the extreme savings culture of China, and thus slowly make them more likely to spend their savings and help China move towards a consumption-led economy.

3) The US doesn’t need low rates, believe it or not. They are doing it for other countries as much as they are doing it for the US economy. People talk about “low wages” employment and how crappy the “actual” economy is. But you are forgetting that these people aren’t the ones taking out loans (increasing demand for loanable funds) that leads to an increase in interest rate. The middle class, as described as between 66.7% and 200% of the median household income (Pew), is still 50% of the country, or about $160 million people. Now that they have some equity in their homes again, due to recent house value appreciation, they are in the best position to borrow (increasing demand for loanable funds) than since Monica was under Bill Clinton’s desk.

4) As 10,000 US boomers retire a day, they will be depleting their 401Ks, defined benefit pensions (I know it’s low as % of total employees today, but it’s still a hell of a lot of AUM!!!) and other savings in order to live out their golden years. This, despite doomers’ warnings, is a huge amount of spending that will continue for a decades precisely as millennials and Gen Xers move up the corporate ladders into higher paying positions.

5) Negative rates in Europe only leads to the destruction of Capital (savings). So it will eventually fix itself in Europe as the supply of Capital vanishes slowly. It’s great for government debt reduction, which is what they want, but bad for the supply of future loanable funds. Canada would be stupid to follow this path.

6) The US clearly doesn’t need negative rates when their debt-to-income ratio is only 117%. Anyways, the US will lead the world out of the emergency rates, just as it led the world into them. You can’t really compare Denmark, Switzerland and Sweden’s attempt to raise rates only to fall back when their major trading partner (Eurozone) is still in a crisis (yes, it’s in a crisis still). If the Eurozone wasn’t in a crisis, none of the non-EZ nations would have negative rates. The reason they do is because they want to keep their currencies from appreciating ridiculously high relative to the Euro so they can continue to export there. Furthermore, scared EZ capital fled to these countries to buy their gov’t debt as a safe store of wealth in case the EZ does break up. This won’t even start reversing until Greece’s problems are solved sufficiently, along with the political issues of Brexit, and other radical populism that could kill the EU project, which there are many. Therefore, those examples, which people cite as an expectation for the US, is asinine. Furthermore, look at the debt-to-income ratios for Sweden and Denmark. They make Canada look sane.

In other words, do as you please. Place your bets however you wish. But don’t cry foul if you’re wrong since you have no one but yourself to blame.

#184 Kenchie on 12.18.15 at 12:08 am

Check out these charts…

US HH Debt Service Payments to Income chart:
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TDSP

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FODSP

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DPI

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/HHMSDODNS

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/HCCSDODNS

HH consumer credit = $3,496.4
HH mortgage credit = $9,454.25
Disposable income = $13,510.1

(3,496.4+9,454.25)/(13,510.1) = 95.86% Household debt to disposable income.

This is obviously lower than what’s reported in the news, so I assume they report on two different formulae. Nevertheless, it’s significantly lower than Canada!

#185 Carousel on 12.18.15 at 12:08 am

If you want to get into the RE buy Reits. Or, move out of the Vancouver area if you wish to purchase a home. Although, some homes are ridiculously high in value too in the interior. If you have cash on hand, and a down turn in RE, which will happen, there will be juicy deals to make. I am not impressed in the Realtors I have dealt with, pretty sly and rude. When RE is high in demand they treat you as a nobody if you are just looking, but it will be different when there is trouble ahead, they will be begging for business.

#186 mousy on 12.18.15 at 12:19 am

Should I be concerned about the photo? Is there a message there about my credit card balance?

#187 Chris in Langley on 12.18.15 at 12:27 am

#157 Sean on 12.17.15 at 10:16 pm

Freedom First your shtick is old. You know, being a man means taking care of other people.. it’s as simple as that. Your endless crap about only looking after yourself is pathetic.. it’s the life of a child. Human relationships.. a wife, a child.. it’s what makes a life worth living.

I dunno.. I agree with what you say about financial freedom. Just think it’s sad that you seem to think it applies to relationships. Oh well.

;;;;;;;;;;;;;;

I skimmed over the bragging post from FF earlier and thought I wouldn’t respond but Sean’s post moved me off the dime.

1) When someone says – “I don’t mean to brag” and then they go and brag, they mean to brag.
2) People who brag to total strangers who they don’t know personally and have almost no chance of ever knowing personally are desperate. It’s the same as standing on the street corner and asking total strangers to be your friend…as they rush by during the course of their days. “Will ‘you’ be my friend? Will ‘you’ be my friend?
3) Anyone of us who read this blog can brag about some legitimate accomplishment in our lives, but we generally don’t because the intent of bragging is to push others down in order to prop ourselves up.
4) A person who needs to knock others down in order to prop themselves up is by definition: immature and the common behavior of a toddler who can’t properly grasp the concept of considering other people’s feelings.
5) FF must therefore have the emotional intelligence of a toddler and be incapable of bonding with a woman in a long term relationship so he focuses on bragging to total strangers about something he may or may not be good at; financial management of money.

#188 kommykim on 12.18.15 at 12:29 am

RE:

A smart investor would have a healthy US asset exposure and also maintain a 20% overall US$ weighting. Now is not the time to convert, which is why I urged this years ago. — Garth

What about those of us who followed that advice and now want to add new $$ to our portfolios? Should we continue to buy unhedged ETFs such as VUN or should we be adding US market exposure with a hedged ETF now (Or when) that the CAD is possibly near it’s bottom?
I’ve heard of a strategy where you buy both hedged and unhedged ETFs for each market and keep the 50/50 balance as the exchange rate changes.

#189 Strathcona on 12.18.15 at 12:43 am

Good to know there’s no crash in the housing market. If I bought a million dollar home in Vancouver in late 2013, it would have been worth the same in USD. Now, if the asset has to be liquidated, and if it were to sell for the same price, I would take nearly a 30% loss in conversion of the funds. In real, international terms, our currency has already done the correction for us.

here in Grande Prairie, AB, crime is up, billboards that used to advertise jobs a year ago are empty, showing only unpainted plywood and a phone number. New jobs are few and far between. Home prices are down $30-100k

#190 willworkforpickles on 12.18.15 at 2:18 am

Never forget… greater world economies at large will not sleep until the US dollar is replaced as the world’s reserve currency …All hell breaks loose in N America then.

#191 The Sovereign Nation of YVR on 12.18.15 at 2:55 am

#10 Vancouver RE, #62 wonthappenhere et. al.

If listings down, means less income for Realtors.

You are only getting richer on paper. Monetize home for actual numbers.

YVR is not a nation unto itself (i.e., you do not make your own monetary and fiscal policy; hence, the rest of Cdn./World economy will show its face in YVR sooner than later).

YVR RE a pyramid scheme. When bottom pyramid entrants dry up, it collapses and quickly so as do all pyramid schemes.

Currently a $250K mortgage, 5 yr fixed rate, 25 yr amortiz., 4.79% rate per BCREA = $1403/mo and CMHC base case 2017 4Q rate of about 6% = $1600/mo.

4Q 2017 a big deal, about $2350/yr increase vs. current. 4Q 2016 forecast increases small, about $800/yr.

2018 probably more.

People signing a 5 yr fixed rate mortgage will do the math of affordability 5 years down the road. They must gamble their net take home income will increase by at least the increase in mortgage payments.

Who knows, you all may be correct.

I see increased risk that was not there a few months ago (down payment and rate increases).

Where there is risk, people are more careful with their money…especially when entering a pyramid at the bottom.

#192 BillyBob on 12.18.15 at 3:08 am

#157 Sean on 12.17.15 at 10:16 pm
Freedom First your shtick is old. You know, being a man means taking care of other people.. it’s as simple as that. Your endless crap about only looking after yourself is pathetic.. it’s the life of a child. Human relationships.. a wife, a child.. it’s what makes a life worth living.

I dunno.. I agree with what you say about financial freedom. Just think it’s sad that you seem to think it applies to relationships. Oh well.

====================================

Wrong. You need to take care of yourself before you can take care of anyone else. Kind of like putting your own oxygen mask on before that of the child next to you when the plane depressurizes.. You’re not much good to anyone unconscious.

Chaining yourself into a legally lopsided institution like marriage simply for the sake of it, or piling on debt to “provide” for others is hardly manly or adult. From what I’ve observed – and the hard stats overwhelmingly verify – most Canadians can barely take care of themselves and should maybe focus a little more on that before worrying about others.

FF has never said he only looks after himself. Only that he looks after himself first. As a result of his philosophy, he’s in far better shape to support and assist, than someone who waxes romantic about “the wife and child making life worth living”. That, to me, is more the mindset of a child.

Ensuring your own freedom of choice and having rich, meaningful human relationships are not mutually exclusive. Try to widen your perspective beyond that of the mainstream. Not everyone considers a spouse and children sheer nirvana, and it’s either naive or condescending to presume that everyone shares your viewpoint. Witness the harassment that FF has to endure on an ongoing basis.

#193 LP on 12.18.15 at 3:37 am

#145 Seabear on 12.17.15 at 9:44 pm
********************
And meanwhile, your “dumb” Canuck has enjoyed most of a quadruple-header without spending one red cent, Canadian or otherwise.

#194 observer on 12.18.15 at 4:28 am

#10 Vancouver RE on 12.17.15 at 5:56 pm
I’m a Vancouver realtor with a large national Real estate company – 20+ years in the business. We had our year end meeting this morning. Of course a topic that was brought up was Ottawa’s new down payment rules. The overwhelming opinion is that it will barely have an effect on lower mainland sales, especially among single family homes. If anything, it appears that a couple of month pop may occur from minimum down payment buyers trying to sneak in before the change. It may impact lower priced markets already weakened like Calgary, but still not significantly.
============

Man another Dumb-azz realitor.
It too you 2 months to get your license it took people in my industry 5 years.

It not the Canada Central banks that decides on the mortgage. It the bond market which is totally not controlled by the government.

The bank of Canada hasn’t raise it rates so why has mortgage rates been going up

If you look at the 5 years bond rates its actually more than the mortgage rates.

This is the way I see it. T2 will have to raise a shltLoad of money to continue his spending spree (spoken like a true ME generation trooper) But how is he going to raise Capital.

If the bank of Canada is going to offer zero or negative rates, who on earth will buy it especially when the US is paying more on the interest returns.

Also note if Canada Diverge from the US our dollar will hit rock bottom with negative rates, we will encourage heavy borrowing from Canada to short our currency and buy into the US currency just like the hedge fund managers did with Greece and Germany. At one point they were par with basically low interest rate .Except Germany actually produces things.

Golly gee what do we produce Real estate. Does that actually generate money. Or another taxation product for the government. We once did but all those companies went to Detriot and Chicage because the capital expenses were cheaper.

#195 observer on 12.18.15 at 4:39 am

This has been a great year for me, and its getting better.

Although I bought mainly dividend pay or interest bear preferred shares. At respectable rates.

67.26% of my those investments were all in USD, for several years. A battered Loonie means greater gains for me.

I never expected to see an 71 cent dollar. I speculated 78. But that’s another 7% gain and the beauty is I don’t see a bottom yet . There are a few things which must happen before we see an end to this. One of them is CMHC running out of money and the looming housing bubble pop. This will not leave a pothole. Its going to leave a crater…

#196 AK on 12.18.15 at 7:04 am

“So hopefully you took the advice here months ago to have at least 20% of your investment portfolio in US$ at all times. ”
====================================
I am already @ 60% and climbing…

#197 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 12.18.15 at 7:43 am

“Look at this. — Garth”

I looked Garth.

It clearly shows that the range is from 5 on the low side to 25 on the high side, except for 2000 and 2008. So at 21.39 we are VERY expensive by your chart. On the other hand, if we went down to the mean of 15, that would only be a 40% drop in the S&P, if earnings remain up here.

Alas, earnings are now down YoY by 4.7%. And since Earnings are in nose bleed territory, and can only have pressure from rising rents, labour costs (and energy from these low prices). At 11% of GDP, earnings peaked. This is the Oracle from Omaha’s favourite mean reverting stat. It will go back to 6% of GDP as competition in the US is allowed to flourish. That will only happen if the FED continues to raise rates….

#198 fancy_pants on 12.18.15 at 7:43 am

… and we thought the BofC governor was between a rock and a hard place before! Doesn’t matter what move is made, something loses. Quick, make like a deer in headlights.

#199 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.18.15 at 8:09 am

@#174 ex-Cowtown
“And we won’t even get into what windmills do to birds. If wind companies were held to the same standard as oil sands companies, wind company directors would be blindfolded, shot and then put on trial…..”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

A tad extreme treatment for “alternate fuel” afficionados . Perhaps we should treat the real estate developers of highrise glass towers to the same treatment since they kill so many birds at night with the lights on?
There is hope.
In certain areas where there are known bat colonies the windmills now slow down (software programming) during the early evening hours when bats emerge and daybreak.
A small change but it may help save a few , rare bats.

Speaking of rare, are there any successful reators left in Cowtown?

#200 noel on 12.18.15 at 8:16 am

You say that there’s a chance that the BoC will cut rates next year, but one paragraph later you say you don’t see how this will help people who own houses.

Surely you think that a rate cut will lead to at least temporary house price appreciation, right?

Not any more. — Garth

#201 Leo Trollstoy on 12.18.15 at 8:49 am

#191 BillyBob on 12.18.15 at 3:08 am

Well said.

#202 Smoking Man on 12.18.15 at 8:59 am

BOC Rate Cut in January I’m thinking 65%

This is ugly

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/indicators

USDCAD $$$$$$$$

#203 Jack Smith on 12.18.15 at 9:10 am

The Federal Reserve raises their rate by 25 basis points and bond yields crash.

Looking at this morning and all 5, 10 and 30 year Canada, U.S. bonds are way down with Canada, U.S. 10, 30 year now 2.19%, 2.90%, 1.38%, 2.11%. This is such a sham!

Bond markets don’t believe it for a minute rates are going higher!

#204 Bottoms_Up on 12.18.15 at 9:13 am

#186 Chris in Langley on 12.18.15 at 12:27 am
——————————————
Well given this blog is anonymous, everything that is said must be taken with a grain of salt.

The message of caring for oneself is important, but subsequent to that what is more important is how one cares for others and ones contribution to society.

#205 BC Working Guy on 12.18.15 at 9:28 am

@ The Sovereign Nation of YVR

“YVR is not a nation unto itself”

It’s funny you should say that because as I was reading this blog last night, I thought to myself, sometimes it really feels like Vancouver is not part of the same country as Canada. Vancouver is so different from the rest of Canada that sometimes it really does feel like we are not in the same country. It’s just like that feeling you get when you are watching American TV and they start throwing around American terms like IRS or 401k or Nene (not everything has to do with finance–Nene is a type of dance, I would not consider that a Canadian word, it’s American) and you think to yourself, this doesn’t apply to me, this is for Americans. Same thing for Garth Turner’s blog and Vancouver. Turner’s blog is for Canada and it does not really apply to Vancouver.

There is no sign of doom and gloom in Vancouver. Nothing. Garth mentioned Burnaby and White Rock in last night’s post. People in Burnaby and White Rock are totally oblivious to the US Fed rate changes and fully expect real estate prices to continue their upward march into the stratosphere. I fully expect prices to continue going up too. It’s doom and gloom in Alberta and we are hearing about price declines there. Not in Vancouver, we’re up by another huge healthy percentage compared to last year.

People are commenting that in Ontario the malls are empty. The malls are packed in Vancouver. Pacific Centre now has Nordstrom in the place where is used to be Sears and before that Eaton’s. Nordstrom’s prices are double if not more than Sears. Sears was empty. Nordstrom, which charges doubled what Sears charged, is packed with customers. It just goes to show in Vancouver people are not shopping based on price. Very often, customers will seek out higher priced goods because of status. Especially in Chinese culture, saving face is very important so the more expensive, the better. In the same spot where Sears and Eaton’s floundered, Nordstrom’s charges double and is packed. I’ve worked retail in Vancouver for years so I now what I am talking about. I’ve lost sales because customers balked that the price was too cheap and they would lose face to their friends if they could not break about how much money they spent. They begged me to raise the prices, but I couldn’t because it was all pre-programmed from head office in Toronto. They liked the merchandise I was selling, but the prices were just too low to be able to brag.

I just feel like the real estate prices will never ever go down in Vancouver. Never. The factor that Garth does not want to acknowledge is too strong here. Someone was right in saying that Seattle, Portland, SF do not compare at all to Vancouver in terms of Chinese culture and population–much more dominant in Vancouver than those cities.

Go ahead. Raise interest rates. Vancouver real estate doesn’t care. It’s truly invincible.

#206 cramar on 12.18.15 at 9:29 am

Heard on the radio yesterday that though the TSX is down 11%, in terms of the U.S. $ it is down a whopping 29%! It then said that this is the worst performing stock market in the entire world!

Kanuckistan indeed!

#207 The American on 12.18.15 at 9:47 am

At #166 boy skirt: You said, “Portland seattle or sf were hot and then not. yes. but sea is every bit as expensive as van today. NONE of those cities has 1/10 of the chinese flavor of van.”

You’re damn right about that. SF is now more expensive than Vancouver by a mile (even more expensive than New York City). Hell, Boston is also more expensive than Vancouver. Seattle, if you rent, is significantly more expensive (rents are 50% higher in Seattle than Vancouver). If you buy in Seattle, our property taxes are triple what they are for a similar valued property in Vancouver (seriously, no wonder you all pay what you pay in other taxes… it’s because you pay NOTHING on your most expensive asset, your home). Vancouver consumer prices are on par or even a bargain now these days, barring fueling up a car or milk. I travel to/from Vancouver. And this is pretty damn accurate. Yet, Seattleites have about 20% more disposable income at the end of each paycheck than Vancouverites. Want to know why? Because we’re also paid more. Like a LOT more than Vancouverites.

http://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_cities.jsp?country1=Canada&country2=United+States&city1=Vancouver&city2=Seattle%2C+WA&tracking=getDispatchComparison

#208 Fine wild roasted gonads on 12.18.15 at 9:51 am

Wow what a beauty…..their mortgage at 63 is bigger than I ever had long since paid off and 10 plus years younger. We are screwed in oilberta but maybe I could sell them my house! This great fool thing seems rather true.

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/family-finance/this-couple-wants-to-retire-soon-and-travel-often-but-with-huge-mountain-of-debt-they-cant-have-it-all

#209 Broke Dick on 12.18.15 at 10:02 am

#179 25.2 cad vs 61.60 cad on 12.17.15 at 11:23 pm
#167 Smoking Man on 12.17.15 at 10:59 pm

I filled up my tank in Niagara falls NY this morning.

Tank was empty, 18 bucks usd. Filled to top.

18 x 1.4 = 25.2 cad.

Same fill up at shell on browns line few days ago.
61.60 cad.

Yes fellow sheep. Our paternal govt has our back.

Thanks Wynee, Juntin.

I’m sure that’s for the environment.

That price difference can’t be the tax difference.
Ask Shell…

His is full of shite, again. do the math. numbers don’t lie, smoking man does

#210 Arb Watson on 12.18.15 at 10:05 am

Interesting. Bank of Japan buying shares in companies to ignite inflation.

#211 Gased Up Smoking Man on 12.18.15 at 10:05 am

#167 Smoking Man on 12.17.15 at 10:59 pm

I filled up my tank in Niagara falls NY this morning.
Tank was empty, 18 bucks usd. Filled to top.
18 x 1.4 = 25.2 cad.
Same fill up at shell on browns line few days ago.
61.60 cad.
Yes fellow sheep. Our paternal govt has our back.
Thanks Wynee, Juntin.
I’m sure that’s for the environment.
_________________________________________
Not quite sure about your math skills now Smoking Man for someone who claims to make lots of money.
Yes we all know the Canadian government shags us for
our petro and we know you’re an idiot savant. However now we know you can’t count without using your fingers and toes. I hope you earnestly count your shekles.

Your tank holds approximately 62 to 70 litres based on your statement of filling up in Canada of 61.60 cdn at roughly 0.99 cdn per litre.
Average price in Niagara Falls NY is $2.29 per US gallon
courtesy of http://www.gaspricewatch.com.
At $18 usd according to your above conversion of 18 x 1.4 = $25.2 cdn you only put in only 7.86 US gallons which = 29.75 litres. 29.75 litres does not equal 62.2 litres thus the petro fill is not the same. By the way gassing up in America you are only saving about 0.14 cdn per litre so at best a fill for you would have saved you $8.68 cdn. Check your math you old sod! Once a math teacher always a math teacher.

#212 Broke Dick on 12.18.15 at 10:11 am

#193 observer on 12.18.15 at 4:28 am
#10 Vancouver RE on 12.17.15 at 5:56 pm

Man another Dumb-azz realitor.
It too you 2 months to get your license it took people in my industry 5 years.

//////////////////////////////////
Maybe it took you 5 years because you is not as smart.

#213 young & foolish on 12.18.15 at 10:28 am

My inner fool keeps forgetting it’s about balance … so what if all the markets are painted red, right?

Not much of a long-term thinker, are you? — Garth

#214 Old Man Too on 12.18.15 at 10:31 am

RE #10 Vancouver RE: does he grow his own?
The reason I was gone so long is I took your advice and sold our house in March. Then I took my wifes advice and bought a condo. Oh the shame. Anyway I was looking at the RE listings for my old neighbourhood: 65 listings, 25 with Price Reduced splashed across the MLS ad. 2 over 1 mil; the rest generally under $750k. One I know has been listed since June. Mind you this is Edmonton, so people generally have a clear head when they buy.

#215 liquidincalgary on 12.18.15 at 10:43 am

Leo U.S. Rentals on 12.17.15 at 9:26 pm

Leo trollstoy

Oh yeah. I don’t care because the only thing I own are U.S. rentals

—-

We don’t care either. You can stop mentioning it 5 times a day. Unless you are a retard , then it’s all right.

===============================================

…that’s an insult to retards!

#216 Basil Fawlty on 12.18.15 at 10:44 am

“Is it diifferent this time?”

Yes, US Federal Debt is up $10T, since the last interest rate hike.

#217 CJBob on 12.18.15 at 10:49 am

No matter how politically unpopular, the gov’t of Alberta needs to do the right thing and add a 4% provincial portion to the sales tax. Should have been done years ago, this is what can go wrong when all the eggs are in 1 basket.

You can argue they need to cut spending and that may be true, but some revenue is required and it has to come form somewhere.

#218 Kuato Lives on 12.18.15 at 10:54 am

Cue Canadian inflation. Here comes the hard place.

#219 paul on 12.18.15 at 10:57 am

Well Justin crumbling all ready!

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com//full-comment/lisa-raitt-the-only-real-surprise-is-just-how-quickly-liberal-promises-crumbled

#220 Bram on 12.18.15 at 11:11 am

#159
Look at this. — Garth
http://www.multpl.com/

The long term trend line of that graph is at 15 P/E.
So the current 21 value is probably a little overvalued.
But yeah, not nearly as much as it used to be.

#221 Yahoo on 12.18.15 at 11:32 am

#10 is prime example of how real estate pump silently inch it’s way through subconscious mind and common sense using destructive force of fear of missing on an action. Don’t forget it only takes one panicking buyer for one house purchase.

#222 Chris on 12.18.15 at 11:32 am

How can people who claim to read Garth’s blog be so “unbalanced” – although I wish our author would stop writing in a manner that scare-mongers as much as he does. Stay calm people, breathe, it’s business as usual. Don’t buy more than you can afford, save and invest some of what you make, enjoy life. I don’t listen to much of what Garth says – different philosophy – almost all individual stocks, almost all TSX (but companies that sell to the world). However I did buy a preferred recently after learning of them here, and for that I thank you. Relax friends, and quit being so damn negative – it ages you. Canada will be alright, unless the whole globe goes boom, and then doesn’t matter.

#223 JimH on 12.18.15 at 11:35 am

#215 Basil Fawlty on 12.18.15 at 10:44 am
re:“Is it diifferent this time?”
“Yes, US Federal Debt is up $10T, since the last interest rate hike.”
==================================
Hey, Basil!
I have a challenge for you. Debt is meaningless without a reference to assets.

How much have all valuations of the assets of the US federal Government increased during the same time frame?

ie, ALL the assets that the US Government actually owns. I have estimated the figure to be well over $300 Trillion.

#224 H on 12.18.15 at 11:36 am

I too am diversified in the US equities

SPXU

All you need here out. Yellens stammering at the conference like a deer in the headlights was confirmation.

#225 Smoking Man on 12.18.15 at 11:40 am

#210 Gased Up Smoking Man on 12.18.15 at 10:05 am
#167 Smoking Man on 12.17.15 at 10:59 pm

I filled up my tank in Niagara falls NY this morning.
Tank was empty, 18 bucks usd. Filled to top.
18 x 1.4 = 25.2 cad.
Same fill up at shell on browns line few days ago.
61.60 cad.
Yes fellow sheep. Our paternal govt has our back.
Thanks Wynee, Juntin.
I’m sure that’s for the environment.
_________________________________________
Not quite sure about your math skills now Smoking Man for someone who claims to make lots of money.
Yes we all know the Canadian government shags us for
our petro and we know you’re an idiot savant. However now we know you can’t count without using your fingers and toes. I hope you earnestly count your shekles.

Your tank holds approximately 62 to 70 litres based on your statement of filling up in Canada of 61.60 cdn at roughly 0.99 cdn per litre.
Average price in Niagara Falls NY is $2.29 per US gallon
courtesy of http://www.gaspricewatch.com.
At $18 usd according to your above conversion of 18 x 1.4 = $25.2 cdn you only put in only 7.86 US gallons which = 29.75 litres. 29.75 litres does not equal 62.2 litres thus the petro fill is not the same. By the way gassing up in America you are only saving about 0.14 cdn per litre so at best a fill for you would have saved you $8.68 cdn. Check your math you old sod! Once a math teacher always a math teacher.

Holly crap.. this is a first. Are you teachers not trained to egnore , shun, not speak to assholes like me.

I’ve chirping the shit out of teachers for years..

Your the first to responded…. I’m impressed, you rebal.

Your maths wrong.

#226 James#2 on 12.18.15 at 11:48 am

#208 Broke Dick on 12.18.15 at 10:02 am

#179 25.2 cad vs 61.60 cad on 12.17.15 at 11:23 pm
#167 Smoking Man on 12.17.15 at 10:59 pm

I filled up my tank in Niagara falls NY this morning.
Tank was empty, 18 bucks usd. Filled to top.
18 x 1.4 = 25.2 cad.
Same fill up at shell on browns line few days ago.
61.60 cad.
Yes fellow sheep. Our paternal govt has our back.
Thanks Wynee, Juntin.
I’m sure that’s for the environment.

That price difference can’t be the tax difference.
Ask Shell…

His is full of shite, again. do the math. numbers don’t lie, smoking man does
*****************************************
Of course he is a self admitted liar. He is always full of shite, just makes he prognostications match when things go his way. It appears he is also shitty at math, huh who would have guessed?

#227 Fed rate up vs S&P 500 on 12.18.15 at 11:50 am

It’s time someone reminded you what happens to stocks when the Fed raises rates …

http://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-and-interest-rates-2015-12

In the past, major changes in direction of Fed money-pumping have often been followed by changes in direction of stock prices.

Not immediately.
And not always.
But often.

S&P 500
Here’s the first period, 1964 to 1980. There were three big tightening phases during this period … and three big stock drops . Good correlation!

Now 1975 to 1982. The Fed started tightening in 1976, at which point the market declined and then flattened for four years. Steeper tightening cycles in 1979 and 1980 were also followed by price drops.

From 1978 to 1990, we see the two drawdowns described above, as well as another tightening cycle followed by flattening stock prices in the late 1980s. Again, tightening precedes crashes.

And, lastly, 1990 to 2014. For those who want to believe that Fed tightening is irrelevant, there’s good news here: A sharp tightening cycle in the mid-1990s did not lead to a crash! Alas, two other tightening cycles, one in 1999 to 2000 and another from 2004 to 2007, were followed by major stock market crashes.

One of the oldest sayings on Wall Street is, “Don’t fight the Fed.” This saying has meaning in both directions, when the Fed is easing and when it is tightening. A glance at these charts shows why.

On the positive side, the Fed’s tightening phases have often lasted a year or two before stock prices peaked and began to drop.

So even if you’re convinced that sustained Fed tightening is now likely to lead to a sharp stock-price pullback at some point, the bull market might still have a ways to run.

#228 Steerage Bilge on 12.18.15 at 11:52 am

#224 Smoking Man on 12.18.15 at 11:40 am

#210 Gased Up Smoking Man on 12.18.15 at 10:05 am
#167 Smoking Man on 12.17.15 at 10:59 pm

I filled up my tank in Niagara falls NY this morning.
Tank was empty, 18 bucks usd. Filled to top.
18 x 1.4 = 25.2 cad.
Same fill up at shell on browns line few days ago.
61.60 cad.
Yes fellow sheep. Our paternal govt has our back.
Thanks Wynee, Juntin.
I’m sure that’s for the environment.
_________________________________________
Not quite sure about your math skills now Smoking Man for someone who claims to make lots of money.
Yes we all know the Canadian government shags us for
our petro and we know you’re an idiot savant. However now we know you can’t count without using your fingers and toes. I hope you earnestly count your shekles.

Your tank holds approximately 62 to 70 litres based on your statement of filling up in Canada of 61.60 cdn at roughly 0.99 cdn per litre.
Average price in Niagara Falls NY is $2.29 per US gallon
courtesy of http://www.gaspricewatch.com.
At $18 usd according to your above conversion of 18 x 1.4 = $25.2 cdn you only put in only 7.86 US gallons which = 29.75 litres. 29.75 litres does not equal 62.2 litres thus the petro fill is not the same. By the way gassing up in America you are only saving about 0.14 cdn per litre so at best a fill for you would have saved you $8.68 cdn. Check your math you old sod! Once a math teacher always a math teacher.

Holly crap.. this is a first. Are you teachers not trained to egnore , shun, not speak to assholes like me.

I’ve chirping the shit out of teachers for years..

Your the first to responded…. I’m impressed, you rebal.

Your maths wrong.
———————
You forgot that you were totally tanked when you filled up in Canada……. thus overflowing your tank for the 30 litre difference……..

#229 Nerfherder on 12.18.15 at 11:55 am

#11 pathcontrolmonk

Are you speaking about the mine closing in Kimberley, BC?

#230 IHCTD9 on 12.18.15 at 12:12 pm

Yes, US Federal Debt is up $10T, since the last interest rate hike.
.#215 CJBob on 12.18.15 at 10:49 am
No matter how politically unpopular, the gov’t of Alberta needs to do the right thing and add a 4% provincial portion to the sales tax. Should have been done years ago, this is what can go wrong when all the eggs are in 1 basket.

You can argue they need to cut spending and that may be true, but some revenue is required and it has to come form somewhere.
__________________________________________

4% is not near enough – try 10% tax on everything. This along with the new Carbon taxes, increased minimum wages, government regulations, higher royalties, red tape, and higher corporate taxes will all be easily absorbed by business owners.

In fact, all these costs to businesses (and those who still have a job) could only be a good thing for Alberta!

Just think about how much better everyone will become at saving their money – this will come in handy when a “1000g” tin of coffee costs $20.00, and chicken is $30.00/lb!

Notley is definitely doing all the right things.

#231 Bottoms_Up on 12.18.15 at 12:16 pm

#218 paul on 12.18.15 at 10:57 am
——————————————
Sorry pal, the ONLY thing in that article is about the projected deficit. This early in the game, that’s all on the Conservatives.

Lisa should know better.

#232 Gased Up Smoking Man on 12.18.15 at 12:19 pm

#224 Smoking Man on 12.18.15 at 11:40 am

Holly crap.. this is a first. Are you teachers not trained to egnore , shun, not speak to assholes like me.
I’ve chirping the shit out of teachers for years..
Your the first to responded…. I’m impressed, you rebal.
Your maths wrong.
………………………………………………………..
Math is never wrong, only those who don’t understand it or misuse it. ‘Proving’ and ‘Disproving’ mean using logic to argue from axioms. You can no more disprove a valid chain of reasoning than you can prove an invalid one. In the real world, everything is probabilities. At the level of abstract math, all quantities are exact and all processes are known. Frankly I didn’t care for other teachers portfolios or methods. Mine was simple your paying me to show you how to become proficient in math. I taught Mathematical and Theoretical Physics. So Sorry I’m sarcastic and have a smart ass attitude from teaching university math to students. It’s a natural defense against drama, stupidity and bullshit! So stop with the porkies you crusty dragon.

#233 Leo Trollstoy on 12.18.15 at 12:21 pm

#214 liquidincalgary on 12.18.15 at 10:43 am

Look ma! I caught another one!

Fish in a barrel

Easy peezy lemon squeezy

#234 For those about to flop... on 12.18.15 at 12:30 pm

#225 James#2 on 12.18.15 at 11:48 am
****************************************
Of course he is a self admitted liar. He is always full of shite, just makes he prognostications match when things go his way. It appears he is also shitty at math, huh who would have guessed?

///////////////////////////////////////////////

Jimmy ,you are right that Joking Man is full of poop but I will give you some advice.
Change your name to James the second or something else as calling yourself a #2 and then talking about poo is not really helping your cause.
It’s your call, but I would make a change.Peace.

#235 Vundo on 12.18.15 at 12:34 pm

#157 Sean: what about owning a house in a small town with a white picket fence? A personal relationship with Jesus Christ? Those things also make some people happy, bless them. Obviously, those things are not for everyone. We live in a society where we respect the fact that what makes us happy is not the only way for others. I would not want to live like FF (in terms of personal relationships; he is always on point when it comes to one’s relationship with money), but I do strive to be as happy with the way I live as he is with the way he lives. I respect his, and your, freedom to decide what is important to yourselves and know that the good life looks different for me than it does for you.

#236 Sheane Wallace on 12.18.15 at 12:34 pm

75 IKnow on 12.17.15 at 7:48 pm

Second: CAD $ is coming down, so prices in Canada look cheap to chinese or americans.
———————–

Just disband CMHC and watch the house prices plunge to their proper values (which is bellow 250 k USD for major Canadian city, TO or Van.)

As far as I know CHMC does not ‘insure’ foreigners.

Are there still idiots who believe that foreigners are driving the housing market in Canada?

It would have been pathetic, if it was not dangerously stupid.

I understand brain freeze but this is pure brain botox.

#237 Bill on 12.18.15 at 12:36 pm

#12 Kevin Sam on 12.17.15 at 5:58 pm

If you think any politician has much to do with any economy then your as smart as a nat.
Oil started it slide a long time ago. All commodities did.
Govs never save for a rainy day…They hope it never comes on their watch…
Then the new guy reneges on promises and blames the old guy…

#238 JamesA on 12.18.15 at 12:41 pm

I wonder if Dr. Poloz can turn it off at night, or, if it festers: http://gph.is/1cmhQUy

God, thats got to be a terrible job right now. There does not seem to be a way out.

Hang in there buddy! Just think: 10-15 years down the road it will be all think tanks and the lecture circuit. The choices you make right now will dictate which cocktail parties you get invited to. :)

#239 Bram on 12.18.15 at 12:48 pm

Strange day on the stock markets.
US markets down pretty hard today. (-1.25% for S&P500)
But TSX perfectly flat.

In my experience TSX gets dragged along with US markets often. I guess the market lures US investors because of the soft loonie?

#240 Leo Trollstoy's Ma on 12.18.15 at 12:49 pm

#232 Leo Trollstoy on 12.18.15 at 12:21 pm

#214 liquidincalgary on 12.18.15 at 10:43 am

Look ma! I caught another one!

Fish in a barrel

Easy peezy lemon squeezy

—-

Good boy… now turn off that computer, go play with your U.S. greeny

#241 cd on 12.18.15 at 12:57 pm

If you ever read statements from the FED, more than often they are vague and obfuscated. This is mainly for them to look confident when in reality the fact is they do not know everything. They are trying to drive a car forward by looking in the rear view mirror. So the rate increase is a very strong indicator that they believe things are moving in the correct direction and a bit too quickly so they need to lighten their foot off the gas. Next year there will be 2-3 more increases.

#242 BC_Doc on 12.18.15 at 1:12 pm

No surprise:

http://globalnews.ca/news/2408894/downturn-in-alberta-economy-blamed-for-westjet-suspending-direct-flights-to-fort-mcmurray/

With high paying jobs used to service consumer credit gone, Canadian banks will find themselves suddenly holding the keys to lots of shiny, new, expensive pickup trucks and Skidos.

#243 Smoking Man on 12.18.15 at 1:19 pm

#231 Gased Up Smoking Man on 12.18.15 at 12:19 pm
#224 Smoking Man on 12.18.15 at 11:40 am

Holly crap.. this is a first. Are you teachers not trained to egnore , shun, not speak to assholes like me.
I’ve chirping the shit out of teachers for years..
Your the first to responded…. I’m impressed, you rebal.
Your maths wrong.
………………………………………………………..
Math is never wrong, only those who don’t understand it or misuse it. ‘Proving’ and ‘Disproving’ mean using logic to argue from axioms. You can no more disprove a valid chain of reasoning than you can prove an invalid one. In the real world, everything is probabilities. At the level of abstract math, all quantities are exact and all processes are known. Frankly I didn’t care for other teachers portfolios or methods. Mine was simple your paying me to show you how to become proficient in math. I taught Mathematical and Theoretical Physics. So Sorry I’m sarcastic and have a smart ass attitude from teaching university math to students. It’s a natural defense against drama, stupidity and bullshit! So stop with the porkies you crusty dragon.
….

Hallarious, you do know that a USA gallon is different than a Canadian Gallon.

Dr. Crusty Dragon

#244 Josh in Calgary on 12.18.15 at 1:24 pm

#236 Bill on 12.18.15 at 12:36 pm
If you think any politician has much to do with any economy then your as smart as a nat.
Oil started it slide a long time ago. All commodities did.
Govs never save for a rainy day…They hope it never comes on their watch…
Then the new guy reneges on promises and blames the old guy…
————————-
I completely agree and this in my mind is the #1 problem with democracy. There is almost ZERO incentive for the government of the day to implement long term planning if the impact on today will be somewhat negative. Take for example a politician who wishes to pay down debt or save for a rainy day. It WILL come at the expense of social programs today. So even during good times there is often a large segment of the population who sees that money and thinks it’s OWED to them in the form of spending today. When in fact we’ve already borrowed it from future generations in the form of debt. We OWE it to future generations to pay back as much of that debt before we move on … but again, 99% of politicians don’t have the will do to so, and the ones who do are quickly voted out.

#245 TRT on 12.18.15 at 1:28 pm

Statscan says inflation is 1.4% year over year.

Which suckers will believe that? The majority sheep?

#246 Kevin Sam on 12.18.15 at 1:29 pm

“I think we have a big problem of having an economy that on the surface, doesn’t appear to be very diversified. A lot of manufacturing jobs have gone elsewhere, all that remains are service jobs, government jobs and of course jobs connected to commodities. It’s crazy that the economy is taking/going to take such a hit on the commodities swoon. Apart from cars, Canada doesn’t BUILD much for export anymore….”

It was Pierre Trudeau signing onto the Brundtland Commission report in 1985 when the Liberal Party began to gut the manufacturing sector in earnest. The idea of the crazy new ‘sustainable development model’ was that we send all those dirty jobs to places like China and we would supply the service and intellectual capital, a perpetuation of serfdom. But, in exchange the Chinese were supposed to send us cheap crap and keep inflation in the west low so as to ratchet down borrowing costs for western governments.

The Brundtland idea was to create a tax on industry, what we saw was the invention of ‘energy tax’, which morphed into global cooling, which morphed into global warming, and when none of those things worked they invented climate change, because when the fallacy was exposed that global cooling/warming was a farce, it is always possible to say that climate changes. Here on the west coast it changes every 15 minutes.

Now we have no industry, we let the American funded green blob steal our future revenue from the resources we have, and Ontario has shuttered all factory output with egregious taxation and uncompetitive energy costs.

Now we have American funded backers of the Liberal Puppets attempting to do what the Obama supporters have done, skeaze up the rhetoric and deny their leader is to blame. Guess what, the guy in charge is always to blame.

Has anyone else noticed the extreme deceleration of the Canadian economy in the 2 months after the Liberal Puppets took power? Hyperinflation due to a crashing loonie has exploded in consumer goods, specifically food, foodbanks are reporting starvation. Selfie-Power won’t rescue us when our government is too busy building a ‘sexy’ PMO rather than having the Harper grit to dig in an do something.

The Brits are right, our PM is ‘a man with little intellectual heft’.

#247 Broke Dick on 12.18.15 at 1:36 pm

#227 Steerage Bilge on 12.18.15 at 11:52 am
#224 Smoking Man on 12.18.15 at 11:40 am

#210 Gased Up Smoking Man on 12.18.15 at 10:05 am
#167 Smoking Man on 12.17.15 at 10:59 pm

I filled up my tank blah, blah, blah, blah….
//////////////////////////////////

Your tank holds approximately 62 to 70 litres based on your statement of filling up in Canada of 61.60 cdn at roughly 0.99 cdn per litre.
Average price in Niagara Falls NY is $2.29 per US gallon
courtesy of http://www.gaspricewatch.com.
At $18 usd according to your above conversion of 18 x 1.4 = $25.2 cdn you only put in only 7.86 US gallons which = 29.75 litres. 29.75 litres does not equal 62.2 litres thus the petro fill is not the same. By the way gassing up in America you are only saving about 0.14 cdn per litre so at best a fill for you would have saved you $8.68 cdn. Check your math you old sod! Once a math teacher always a math teacher.

Holly crap.. this is a first. Are you teachers not trained to egnore , shun, not speak to assholes like me.

I’ve chirping the shit out of teachers for years..

Your the first to responded…. I’m impressed, you rebal.

Your maths wrong.
———————
You forgot that you were totally tanked when you filled up in Canada……. thus overflowing your tank for the 30 litre difference……..

and he bought a couple of packs of smokes too

#248 cramar on 12.18.15 at 1:38 pm

#218 paul on 12.18.15 at 10:57 am
Well Justin crumbling all ready!

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com//full-comment/lisa-raitt-the-only-real-surprise-is-just-how-quickly-liberal-promises-crumbled

====================

“Finance Minister Bill Morneau is bringing in an advisory council of experts who know how to grow successful economies, as he announced on Monday. Given the Liberals’ early fiscal track record, it is probably wise at this point to seek guidance from those who didn’t put the Liberal platform together.”

This is the first good sign I’ve seen! But, I assume one Garth Turner was not asked for input. Too bad! I guess having the biggest financial blog in Canada written by someone also intimate with politics, doesn’t matter to a Finance Minister.

NIH is the biggest obstacle to progress (Not Invented Here).

#249 bdy sktrn on 12.18.15 at 1:45 pm

#235 Sheane Wallace on 12.18.15 at 12:34 pm
75 IKnow on 12.17.15 at 7:48 pm

Second: CAD $ is coming down, so prices in Canada look cheap to chinese or americans.
———————–

Just disband CMHC and watch the house prices plunge to their proper values (which is bellow 250 k USD for major Canadian city, TO or Van.)

As far as I know CHMC does not ‘insure’ foreigners.

Are there still idiots who believe that foreigners are driving the housing market in Canada?

It would have been pathetic, if it was not dangerously stupid.

I understand brain freeze but this is pure brain botox.
—————————
a friend who happens to be a RE agent studied and took the managing broker lic course a while back. since then he was driving truck/crane for cash. last few years a few deals, just enough to keep the lights on, barely.

recently he somehow hooked up with this guy/company starting a new RE broker business in 604. Going from 0 to 100 in a few months. Throwing tens of millions into getting it off the ground fast. Big staff, big office, new everything, heavy media blitz soon..he can hardly believe it.

Big staff in the office and growing by the day, all are ‘recently’ from the big C (but him). After a few weeks he finally found out where the funding was coming – boss was el presidente’ of a very big american co for a certain asian region until a few years ago. he’s personally connected with anybody he so chooses, at the highest levels it seems.

made it all there , brought it here and he will make a bunch more . vancouver is a magnet for cash (and sometimes brains) and growing faster than ever. The inflow of offshore cash is stronger than ever.

so yeah, keep waiting for that 40% crash. we’ll be here watching.

ps: you do not, or have not, lived on the west side of van or richmond in the past 10 years- yes? have you even ever been there?

#250 Yaley on 12.18.15 at 1:51 pm

#201 Smoking Man
“BOC Rate Cut in January I’m thinking 65%”
…………………………….
Actually, forecasters are only predicting a 25% chance of a Canadian rate cut in January. But it’s 70% for sometime later in the year.

If the rate does drop, the effects will be more than CAD dropping.

Mortgage rates will stay low or head slightly lower in Canada.

Foreign investment in real estate will stay high and go higher.

Hot markets like Toronto, Vancouver, Victoria…. will stay hot.

Preferred shares etf’s will be heading lower. That’s more than likely why their near their lows.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-18/canada-dollar-falls-to-lowest-since-2004-on-rate-cut-speculation

#251 bdy sktrn on 12.18.15 at 1:53 pm

The Brits are right, our PM is ‘a man with little intellectual heft’.
—–
are you dissing our ‘shiny pony’???

#252 tkid on 12.18.15 at 1:57 pm

#231, you should have known better. Anytime you start up with the ‘I’m a university professor’ schtick you’re just asking for fate/God to show you up.

Link, US vs Imperial Gallons:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_the_imperial_and_US_customary_measurement_systems

#253 RayofLight on 12.18.15 at 1:57 pm

#174 Ex-Cowtown on 12.17.15 at 11:14 pm
Re: Chanos on oil keeping dropping and solar and electric cars saving the world
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Places like Holland are already seeing unresolvable problems in the push to electric cars. By issuing massive subsidies, electric cars have been adopted in Holland far faster than anywhere else. This is leading to brownouts and lineups for re-charging and the need to import huge amounts of dirty coal generated electricity to backfill the problems. End result is that CO2 and other pollutants are climbing along with massive increases in power demand and poor grid stability.
This is one of those wicked problems. If a few people adopt a new technology, it looks good, but the true cost is being masked and subsidized by others. Once a critical mass is hit, the more the new technology is used, the worse it becomes for everyone. Unless the grid is revamped through something like local distributed generation using thorium reactors, it will be impossible for conventional generation (either natural gas or coal) to meet the needs. Solar is simply a non-starter and would make the grid stability even worse.
Ultimately, solar and wind are things that keep electrical engineers up at night (literally). They constantly turn off and on and destabilize and destroy the grid.
And we won’t even get into what windmills do to birds. If wind companies were held to the same standard as oil sands companies, wind company directors would be blindfolded, shot and then put on trial.
http://notrickszone.com/#sthash.NErzfnQa.4THb433o.dpbs
Even the German greenies are now calling for a moratorium on windmills.
Chanos is a goof. Kind of like Leonardo DiCaprio, but without the fashion sense.
================================
To me, the only thing that will allow renewable energy to become a real player in the energy markets is to develop very cheap batteries with an energy density comparable to fossil fuels. If a battery can be recharged in 5-10 mins, and allow an electric vehicle to travel around 500-600 kls, that would be a game changer. If a storage battery could be placed in parallel to each wind turbine or solar panel that could store the day’s production, such that the power could be absorbed or metered out as the grid requirements dictate, that would be a game changer. This is what I am looking for. IT most likely will require the synergies of nano technology and new materials (graphene perhaps), but this would be what renewable energy as a science needs.

#254 Smoking Man on 12.18.15 at 2:00 pm

Finally.

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/12/18/bombardier-cseries-commercial-jet-certified-for-service

#255 bdy sktrn on 12.18.15 at 2:01 pm

* Wall St falls

* Traders see dovish Fed rate hike path

By Tariro Mzezewa

NEW YORK, Dec 18 (Reuters) – Prices on U.S. Treasuries rose on Friday in choppy trading as stocks slipped and in rising investor skepticism over the Federal Reserve’s ability to raise interest rates as much as it would like next year.

Falling oil prices and stock markets weakness encouraged investors to seek the relative safety of U.S. government debt, as sliding oil prices suggest inflation will remain benign.

#256 Godth on 12.18.15 at 2:06 pm

talking about consequences…

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/12/historic-new-harpers-article-exposes-controls-america.html#more-52622

#257 For those about to flop... on 12.18.15 at 2:07 pm

I feel dirty right now.I am home alone with time on my hands recovering from surgery.
I couldn’t resist the temptation of checking out some forbidden fruit on t.v as I just watched an episode of house hunters international on hgtv.
I got all hot and bothered under the covers as I seen an episode of a couple buying house in my native Australia.
Not in Sydney or Melbourne which are just like T.O and the Couv ,but in rural Queensland.
The flurries yesterday were a timely reminder ….must ….stay …strong !

#258 bdy sktrn on 12.18.15 at 2:29 pm

#248 tkid on 12.18.15 at 1:57 pm
#231, you should have known better. Anytime you start up with the ‘I’m a university professor’ schtick you’re just asking for fate/God to show you up.

Link, US vs Imperial Gallons:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_the_imperial_and_US_customary_measurement_systems
———————-
ha – you don’t ‘do’ math either? do ya?

of course there are 2 different gallons.

the difference in gallons if far smaller than smokeys error here, even at a quick glance

any cdn eng worth his salt knows the conversions like his phone number.

#259 bdy sktrn on 12.18.15 at 2:30 pm

the difference in gallons ***is*** far smaller than smokeys error here, even at a quick glance

#260 For those about to flop... on 12.18.15 at 2:31 pm

#246 bdy sktrn on 12.18.15 at 1:53 pm
The Brits are right, our PM is ‘a man with little intellectual heft’.
—–
are you dissing our ‘shiny pony’???

////////////////////////////////////
The Metrosexual Messiah(tm) gonna sort it all out!

#261 Smoking Man on 12.18.15 at 2:41 pm

#249 Yaley on 12.18.15 at 1:51 pm
#201 Smoking Man
“BOC Rate Cut in January I’m thinking 65%”
…………………………….
Actually, forecasters are only predicting a 25% chance of a Canadian rate cut in January. But it’s 70% for sometime later in the year..
…………………..

My tin foil Fedora sees it a bit different.

Let you know on Jan 6 when the trade balance report is out, then on the 8th, Job numbers.

#262 tkid on 12.18.15 at 2:42 pm

Yes bdy sktm, the differences are small and smokes still needs to work on his math, but if #231 is going to run around claiming to be a University Professor with the implication that he/she is the best of the best, then their math had better be profoundly good with all the usual standards adhered to (I took math in uni).

Instead, #231 does the usually nyah nyah routine I expect from six year olds on a playground.

#263 Bailing in BC on 12.18.15 at 2:45 pm

Hey blog dogs, does anyone know off the top of their heads what length of time needs to pass between having your house listing with a realtor expire and selling it FSBO in order for you to not owe the realtor commission? Does it vary? I’m in Vancouver if that’s relevant.

That is explained in your contract (listing agreement). Normally it is six months. — Garth

#264 Retired Boomer WI on 12.18.15 at 2:50 pm

Wow!! Smoking Man & Gassed up Smoking man can’t convert US gallons to liters? 1 US gallon = 3.89 liters.
Converting the CAD to US you are on your own there as the rate has been chasing quickly.

Today the markets display a bit for indigestion, or fiscal flatulence. Is this just pent up wind over a measly .25% increase? Good grief what if rates had lifted .5%?

My opinion, it is merely useless noise just ignore it. I would be much more worried in a BOC rate cut, or a stall fall in RE prices in the normal lands, not 416 or the moldy city. 416 & mold world are merely the Canadian Vegas and Miami…. happy landing!

#265 bdy sktrn on 12.18.15 at 2:57 pm

check again – math teacher is bang on. specifically mentions ‘US gal’ and uses the appropriate conversion factor.

what used to be a canadian gallon is irrelevant to the math.

You people have w-a-y too much time on your hands. — Garth

#266 bdy sktrn on 12.18.15 at 2:58 pm

tkid

——-
see above post 4 you.

#267 Gased Up Smoking Man on 12.18.15 at 3:02 pm

#242 Smoking Man on 12.18.15 at 1:19 pm

#231 Gased Up Smoking Man on 12.18.15 at 12:19 pm
#224 Smoking Man on 12.18.15 at 11:40 am

Holly crap.. this is a first. Are you teachers not trained to egnore , shun, not speak to assholes like me.
I’ve chirping the shit out of teachers for years..
Your the first to responded…. I’m impressed, you rebal.
Your maths wrong.
………………………………………………………..
Math is never wrong, only those who don’t understand it or misuse it. ‘Proving’ and ‘Disproving’ mean using logic to argue from axioms. You can no more disprove a valid chain of reasoning than you can prove an invalid one. In the real world, everything is probabilities. At the level of abstract math, all quantities are exact and all processes are known. Frankly I didn’t care for other teachers portfolios or methods. Mine was simple your paying me to show you how to become proficient in math. I taught Mathematical and Theoretical Physics. So Sorry I’m sarcastic and have a smart ass attitude from teaching university math to students. It’s a natural defense against drama, stupidity and bullshit! So stop with the porkies you crusty dragon.
….

Hallarious, you do know that a USA gallon is different than a Canadian Gallon.

Dr. Crusty Dragon
****************************************
Check my calculations John Thomas! All based on 1 US gallon = 3.78541178 litres. I’m originally from the UK you wanker, so we know all about US vs Imperial gallons. I think your off your trolley.

Your tank holds approximately 62 to 70 litres based on your statement of filling up in Canada of 61.60 cdn at roughly 0.99 cdn per litre.
Average price in Niagara Falls NY is $2.29 per US gallon
courtesy of http://www.gaspricewatch.com.
At $18 usd according to your above conversion of 18 x 1.4 = $25.2 cdn you only put in only 7.86 US gallons which = 29.75 litres. 29.75 litres does not equal 62.2 litres thus the petro fill is not the same.

#268 Bailing in BC on 12.18.15 at 3:06 pm

That is explained in your contract (listing agreement). Normally it is six months. — Garth

Thanks Garth, I don’t have a contract or (a house to sell) so I though I would put it out to the dogs. I’m assuming that the buyer of the property would have to have come to the seller after this six month period? Not just for the two parties to agree that they would wait the required time for the listing to be commission free and then they would sign the contracts?

If you have any contact with the buyer during the specified period of time following the expiration of the listing agreement, then you will have to pay commission to the listing agent, pursuant to the agreement, even if the agent is not involved in the transaction. — Garth

#269 OXI in GREECE on 12.18.15 at 3:11 pm

So happy to be making US dollars right now….

#270 Smoking Man on 12.18.15 at 3:26 pm

#269 Smoking Man on 12.18.15 at 3:17 pm
#258 bdy sktrn on 12.18.15 at 2:30 pm
the difference in gallons ***is*** far smaller than smokeys error here, even at a quick glance
…………………….

Oh my god no one sees it, hey I was hang over, I may have had a few bars on the gage while filling up in the usa.

But the point was we are paying double. DOUBLE, factor in soon to be introduced Carbon Tax etc etc.

Where is the outrage. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The schooled grab their Texas instrument. While I’m sharpening my pitch fork.

Jesus………………save me from these people.

#271 IHCTD9 on 12.18.15 at 3:27 pm

#264 bdy sktrn on 12.18.15 at 2:57 pm

what used to be a canadian gallon is irrelevant to the math.
________________________

Except for when you are buying a new car – that’s how we have all these 4×4 7500 lb. monster trucks on the lots claiming they get 30 “mpg” hwy.

The last bastion of the Canadian Gallon!

#272 IHCTD9 on 12.18.15 at 3:29 pm

#263 Retired Boomer WI on 12.18.15 at 2:50 pm

1 US gallon = 3.89 liters.
______________________

3.78 actually.

#273 Broke Dick on 12.18.15 at 3:38 pm

#242 Smoking Man on 12.18.15 at 1:19 pm
#231 Gased Up Smoking Man on 12.18.15 at 12:19 pm

Hallarious, you do know that a USA gallon is different than a Canadian Gallon.

Dr. Crusty Dragon

?????????????????????????????????????????
Even more hallarryous.
The conversion was already accounted for.
“At $18 usd according to your above conversion of 18 x 1.4 = $25.2 cdn you only put in only 7.86 US gallons which = 29.75 litres. 29.75 litres does not equal 62.2 litres thus the petro fill is not the same. ”
On a blog you are expected to know how to read Mr. One Tooth.
Have you been huffing gas?

#274 Broke Dick on 12.18.15 at 3:40 pm

#261 tkid on 12.18.15 at 2:42 pm
Yes bdy sktm, the differences are small and smokes still needs to work on his math, but if #231 is going to run around claiming to be a University Professor with the implication that he/she is the best of the best, then their math had better be profoundly good with all the usual standards adhered to (I took math in uni).

////////////////////////////////

You took math in uni, that’s good. Did you pass? How about reddin?

#275 IHCTD9 on 12.18.15 at 3:41 pm

#252 RayofLight on 12.18.15 at 1:57 pm

To me, the only thing that will allow renewable energy to become a real player in the energy markets is to develop very cheap batteries with an energy density comparable to fossil fuels. If a battery can be recharged in 5-10 mins, and allow an electric vehicle to travel around 500-600 kls, that would be a game changer. If a storage battery could be placed in parallel to each wind turbine or solar panel that could store the day’s production, such that the power could be absorbed or metered out as the grid requirements dictate, that would be a game changer. This is what I am looking for. IT most likely will require the synergies of nano technology and new materials (graphene perhaps), but this would be what renewable energy as a science needs.
_____________________________________

Some day soon, I will sit down and figure out the cost of running a km on gasoline, and compare that to the cost of running the same km on electricity supplied by the Province of Ontario.

Electric cars may be good for the environment (maybe), but no one short of an environazi would pay a huge premium to purchase one, only to find out it costs the same, or even more to run than the Smart car you just sold off. To say nothing of the inconvenience of an electric car.

#276 For those about to flop... on 12.18.15 at 3:45 pm

check again – math teacher is bang on. specifically mentions ‘US gal’ and uses the appropriate conversion factor.

what used to be a canadian gallon is irrelevant to the math.

You people have w-a-y too much time on your hands. — Garth
///////////////////////////////////////////
Look man ,I’ve got two options.
I can catch the number 8 bus down to Main and Hastings to hang out with delusional people on drugs or I can come here and have the same experience without leaving the comfort of my house.
Which would you choose?
Surgeon told me to stay home so what’s a guy to do?

#277 Drill Baby Drill on 12.18.15 at 3:53 pm

The price of gasoline in the USA yesterday averaged just below $2.00 USD/ US gallon. I paid in Calgary yesterday $0.9 Loonies / litre.

If you are Canadian filling up in the USA with a CAD built car (10 CAD gallon tank)
1 US gal (0.833 that of a CAD gal) = 3.786 litres
$2 USD divided by 3.786 litres = $0.53 USD / litre

Therefore $0.53 USD x 4.546 litres x 10 CAD gals = $24 USD ($33 CAD) for CAD built car to fill up in the USA

1 CAD gal = 4.546 litres x 10 CAD gals per tank x $0.9 CAD /litre = $40.91($29.45 USD) for CAD built car to fill up in Canada

#278 cramar on 12.18.15 at 4:06 pm

#250 bdy sktrn on 12.18.15 at 1:53 pm
The Brits are right, our PM is ‘a man with little intellectual heft’.
—–
are you dissing our ‘shiny pony’???

===========

Hey, what other head of state can take a selfie like OUR PM!? Got to be worth sumpin.

#279 NoName on 12.18.15 at 4:18 pm

Toyota Prius 11.9 galonas gas tank.

#280 Bailing in BC on 12.18.15 at 4:28 pm

Thanks Garth, just what I needed to know :-)

Knowledge is power

#281 tkid on 12.18.15 at 4:34 pm

#273, nope, never took reddin’

… laughs …

#282 paul on 12.18.15 at 4:37 pm

#277 cramar on 12.18.15 at 4:06 pm

#250 bdy sktrn on 12.18.15 at 1:53 pm
The Brits are right, our PM is ‘a man with little intellectual heft’.
—–
are you dissing our ‘shiny pony’???

===========

Hey, what other head of state can take a selfie like OUR PM!? Got to be worth sumpin.
———————————————————-
Thought I saw him in Harry Rosin’s window the other night but it was just another empty suit.

#283 paul on 12.18.15 at 4:42 pm

#267 Bailing in BC on 12.18.15 at 3:06 pm

That is explained in your contract (listing agreement). Normally it is six months. — Garth

Thanks Garth, I don’t have a contract or (a house to sell) so I though I would put it out to the dogs. I’m assuming that the buyer of the property would have to have come to the seller after this six month period? Not just for the two parties to agree that they would wait the required time for the listing to be commission free and then they would sign the contracts?

If you have any contact with the buyer during the specified period of time following the expiration of the listing agreement, then you will have to pay commission to the listing agent, pursuant to the agreement, even if the agent is not involved in the transaction. — Garth
———————————————————-
And people wonder why there are buyer representation
agreements.

#284 bdy sktrn on 12.18.15 at 4:49 pm

#
You people have w-a-y too much time on your hands. — Garth
///////////////////////////////////////////
Look man ,I’ve got two options.
I can catch the number 8 bus down to Main and Hastings to hang out with delusional people on drugs or I can come here and have the same experience without leaving the comfort of my house.
Which would you choose?
Surgeon told me to stay home so what’s a guy to do?

——————–
hahahahaha get well soon, meet up at the no5 orange when ur better!

#285 Yeah baby who luvs ya on 12.18.15 at 4:51 pm

#269 Smoking Man on 12.18.15 at 3:26 pm

#269 Smoking Man on 12.18.15 at 3:17 pm
#258 bdy sktrn on 12.18.15 at 2:30 pm
the difference in gallons ***is*** far smaller than smokeys error here, even at a quick glance
…………………….

Oh my god no one sees it, hey I was hang over, I may have had a few bars on the gage while filling up in the usa.

But the point was we are paying double. DOUBLE, factor in soon to be introduced Carbon Tax etc etc.

Where is the outrage. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The schooled grab their Texas instrument. While I’m sharpening my pitch fork.

Jesus………………save me from these people.
———————-
The difference is not double and you are spewing the BS as usual………. you just have double vision 26/8

#286 bdy sktrn on 12.18.15 at 4:54 pm

#276 Drill Baby Drill on 12.18.15 at 3:53 pm
The price of gasoline in the USA yesterday averaged just below $2.00 USD/ US gallon. I paid in Calgary yesterday $0.9 Loonies / litre.

———————–
lucky buggers… (except for that crashing economy thing)
stubbornly 1.20 to 1.23 in van.

if it takes less than 1/3 of a tank to get to blaine you get the trip for free at least.

#287 rvs on 12.18.15 at 5:13 pm

Hey Shaky… u forgot to tell us how the DOW would tank 660 pts in the the first 2 days after “liftoff” of the “exceptional” economy… lol

rotflmao

But hey, maybe one you your loyal worshipers will send you “a clue” for Xmas this year…

#288 Leo Trollstoy on 12.18.15 at 5:18 pm

My CLS550 eats a lot of gas. Thankfully gas is cheap and the Canadian dollar sucks.

#289 TurnerNation on 12.18.15 at 5:21 pm

Is this a gas tank blog?
Buckle up for possible “Black Monday”.

#290 Rexx Rock on 12.18.15 at 5:22 pm

I’ll be writing to the federal mp this year on how us sheeple Canadians should pay for the 10 billion in deficits that Truedeau say we need.Heres the list.

1)junk food tax of 20%
2) federal carbon tax 15% all provinces
3)Exit and Entrance tax of $100 on all Canadians who leave the Country for more than a week.
4)Passport renewal $500,licence renewal $500
5)Fun and luxury tax of 10%
6)Flat rate land transfer tax all provinces 10%
7)Death tax of 25% of all assets.
8)Due away with capital gains tax and charge as income
9)50% tax earned income from all real estate

#291 Leo Trollstoy on 12.18.15 at 5:27 pm

#239 Leo Trollstoy’s Ma on 12.18.15 at 12:49 pm

I live up to my name.

Best in the biz.

lol

#292 Dual Citizen In Canada on 12.18.15 at 6:21 pm

Who in their right mind would invest in Canadian RE as the loonie drops? Your equity will go negative with every drop. I guess people aren’t in their right minds. I moved from US to CA in 2010 and as far as I am concerned, my salary has dropped 30%!

#293 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.18.15 at 7:11 pm

@#204 BC Working Guy
“Nordstrom’s charges double and is packed. I’ve worked retail in Vancouver for years so I now what I am talking about. I’ve lost sales because customers balked that the price was too cheap and they would lose face to their friends if they could not break about how much money they spent. They begged me to raise the prices,……..
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
AHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

#294 maxx on 12.19.15 at 11:30 am

“Only Bandit listens”

Yes, and many on this blog have suspected for a long while that Bandit’s I.Q. is far higher than the average house-crazy Canuck pouring precious earnings into the black hole of re.

Cash is, and always will be, king.

#295 DanNotInCalgary on 12.20.15 at 9:10 am

From Bangkok, I opened your blog for the first time in more than a month. In it I see no reason to return home…

I’m a recently terminated oil employee and own no real estate. My only concern is the exchange rate as I purchase Dong, Baht, Real, and Kyat.

I have to thank you. Your “live life not real estate” advice had helped me to live the dream from my fat severance and savings. Not touching the investments but can weather the storm here for years if need be. Like you said, I can never buy back a single day. This experience is without price!

Maybe I’ll read the blog in another month or so, when I care to care.

Goodnight and thank you from the other side of the globe. Sawadee khrap!