The wall

1WHALE

It’s a tough week for Ted Zaharko. No decent way to end a long career. But the veteran realtor didn’t get this far being thick. He knows. So he’s getting out. And there’s probably a lesson here, with many people watching, from Calgary to Parliament Hill.

This week the big operation called Royal LePage Foothills starts going dark. Over 160 agents in six offices owned by Zaharko are being released to migrate elsewhere. This happens at a time when house sales in Calgary are down 25% from the same time last year, while listings have jumped by a third and there’s an unhealthy eight-month supply of properties for sale.

The phones are dead. Showings are rare. Open houses lonely. Sellers stressed. No commission. And now a big broker in trouble.

“It becomes increasingly apparent that in this current economic climate that a multi-branch organization like mine becomes difficult because the expenses have accelerated and revenue is dropping according to the way the economy is,” Ted (70) told the local media. ““It’s kind of a tight situation. Less cash coming in and we’re just a bit behind in our commissions payable to our realtors. You see the writing on the wall and say ‘maybe this is the time to move down to a very small operation…”

So much for one of the largest LePage operations in the West, with a gross of over $35 million. The parent company says this failure was unique. Nobody’s buying it.

Calgary matters as it shows what occurs when crap happens. A market-on-fire two years ago went dead-cold not because oil prices fell but when people lost their confidence. It resulted from one thing only – job stress. This is what the Bank of Canada is so twisted about. Look what it just published.

The semi-annual report released this week is blunt. The bank says housing has an increased potential of blowing things up since commodity prices have deflated and a lot of folks are jobless as a result. Were we not so marinated in debt, this would be serious but not threatening. Alas, we are. As this pathetic blog has pointed out, with soul-sucking regularity, mortgage debt is rising faster than incomes. The biggest debt piggies are the young, who also have the least ability to withstand financial adversity. Like being laid off.

Says the bank: “Household vulnerabilities could be exacerbated by a severe recession that is accompanied by a widespread and prolonged rise in unemployment. This could reduce the ability of households to service their debt and cause serious and broad-based declines in house prices.”

Over 40% of all debt belongs to households with a debt ratio of 250% or more. One in five have borrowed more than 350% of what they make. Recall that I showed you a chart a few days ago of those with 500% levels. And most of these fools live in VYR or the GTA – where fully a third of all mortgage debt is anchored.

This is why the new T2 gang increased down payments between $500 and a million, to try to cool things off (and heat them up in the meantime). It’s partially why the big banks have already started tightening up on the variable mortgage costs, even without the Bank of Canada changing its number. And it’s why lenders will move astutely to plump all mortgages once US rates increase Wednesday afternoon (current odds 100%).

The country’s myopic mortgage regulations and voracious lenders, combined with an unhealthy house lust bred by Boomers into the spawn, have delivered us here. The fact most young buyers in Toronto and Vancouver absolutely disbelieve any of the above and hold me as massively irrelevant is telling. (Of course I don’t matter, but that’s another thing.)

A whole lot changes tomorrow. It may take a long time for the indebted and the incredulous to catch on, but in places like Calgary they get it now. It’s why Century 21 agent Keith Crawford is now offering a $100,000 Tesla free to the buyer of one of his listings. And why Ross Pavl of Re/Max will give the buyer of his property $350,000 toward the purchase of a helicopter.

When realtors lose their minds, what hope is there for mankind?

227 comments ↓

#1 Doug t on 12.15.15 at 4:43 pm

Debt slaves get ready – the chains that bind you are going to get a whole lot tighter

#2 Canadian on 12.15.15 at 4:48 pm

haha the return of CEC has arrived (“current economic climate” buzzword) I heard so much of back in 2008-9.

Can’t wait until T3 starts showing up too (“These Tough Times”)

#3 Canadian on 12.15.15 at 4:48 pm

I forgot to add why they are so funny: Everybody bending over backward to avoid using the R word.

#4 Julie K. on 12.15.15 at 4:50 pm

We don’t need no education
We dont need no thought control
No dark sarcasm in the classroom
Teachers leave them kids alone
Hey! Teachers! Leave them kids alone!
All in all it’s just another brick in the wall.
All in all you’re just another brick in the wall.

We don’t need no education
We dont need no thought control
No dark sarcasm in the classroom
Teachers leave them kids alone
Hey! Teachers! Leave them kids alone!
All in all it’s just another brick in the wall.
All in all you’re just another brick in the wall.

“Wrong, Do it again!”

“If you don’t eat yer meat, you can’t have any pudding. How can you have any pudding if you don’t eat yer meat?”

~ Pink Floyd, Another Brick in the Wall

#5 Blimey on 12.15.15 at 4:53 pm

Welcome back 7% GST :)

#6 Incubus on 12.15.15 at 5:02 pm

House prices expected to fall in three provinces but not in Quebec (LOL)

http://affaires.lapresse.ca/economie/immobilier/201512/15/01-4931436-le-prix-des-maisons-devrait-reculer-dans-trois-provinces-mais-pas-au-quebec.php

#7 ShawnG in TO on 12.15.15 at 5:05 pm

but the regulators let the housing bubble grow so quickly for so long, with
– irresponsible mortgage policies, and
– cmhc carrying all the risks
and only now beginning to issue warnings.

This reminds me of this picture:
https://twitter.com/macrocredit/status/655460269838245892

#8 For those about to flop... on 12.15.15 at 5:09 pm

Well the big event in the worlds eyes tomorrow will be what the Fed does ,I don’t care as I will be asleep.
No really, I will be asleep because I am having surgery tomorrow and will be out cold. If I wake up and Janet Yellen is looking down on me saying ” let me raise you up, because I have to raise something” I will know things did not go to plan.
Also in the next couple of days ,if I agree with Females First(sic) or say that I should have married Daisy Mae disregard these messages as it’s not me talking but the Tramadol! See you guys on the other side.

#9 Ricky on 12.15.15 at 5:11 pm

Man I want to fly a Helicopter. Is it as hard as COD Vietnam? Just parachute out half way across the map?

God- I like paper investments in this environment. I love basing my future and my families future on anothers promise to pay.

#10 I Stand Corrected on 12.15.15 at 5:14 pm

Yup, I knew Calgary was done when a Realtor friend of mine told me he was getting out of the game last year. The dude used to fly around YYC in leased BMWs and Mercs, however the last time I saw him, he was rocking a Hyndai SUV. I kid you not. :)

#11 Murray The Vet on 12.15.15 at 5:15 pm

“Debt is the slavery of the free.”- Publilius Syrus, 1st Century BC.

#12 Interested Party on 12.15.15 at 5:16 pm

So… umm… how much does a decent helicopter usually go for?

#13 BC Guy on 12.15.15 at 5:20 pm

The only way to return sanity to real estate in Canada:

– minimum 20% down payment for houses under $500k
– minimum 50% down payment for houses over $500k
– increase the Bank Of Canada rate a full percent
– provincial and federal governments must put a lot more raw land on the market (crown land), this will also spur development, create jobs, reduce congestion in the major centres

#14 leslie on 12.15.15 at 5:21 pm

I am not sure, but I live in Calgary..and my friend is a realtor..
He hasn’t noticed too much slow down, people are not selling for a loss that’s for sure…and if there are willing sellers a lot of buyers with cash and credit are at the side line waiting…

You are right able that we have too much debt, but it ain’t that bad

#15 Governor Poloz on 12.15.15 at 5:27 pm

Sorry guys to rain on your parade.

I have just released a statement where i have officially stated that I will not NOT follow the Fed. Times are different now and I must protect exporters and homeowners at all costs. To hell with the Loonie.

I have also just stated that I’m prepared to lower interest rates by 1% from here.

http://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKBN0TY2NH20151215

Nobody ever expect the BoC to lockstep a rate increase tomorrow. But resistance is ultimately futile. — Garth

#16 MF on 12.15.15 at 5:28 pm

#317 Bram on 12.15.15 at 4:37 pm

“I wouldn’t buy VRX: a 62 Price-Earnings ratio, and no dividend payments? Ugh…”

Yeah it’s funny how the PE is so high and yet this thing still seems to want to rise. Dollarama is another one. PE is around 35 and yet it was green for years. Must be tons of speculators and day traders eyeing these. Those guys love sexy pharma stocks like vrx.

I have to confess that when vrx first went down last month, it went down about 35% in one day. I looked at my phone while at the gym and immediately purchased about 3k of it. The stock fell further and then rose to about 15% from where I bought it and then I sold. profit of about 500$ in about 5 hours. Not bad but dangerous and thrilling. That’s probably why vrx is up so much today.

MF

#17 No debt on 12.15.15 at 5:29 pm

Hey Garth, at 40 what should a persons net worth be on average? Thanks

Married or single? Kids? Education level? City or region? Lots of variables. No one answer. — Garth

#18 Mark on 12.15.15 at 5:30 pm

“House prices expected to fall in three provinces but not in Quebec (LOL)”

From the pricing I’ve seen in my relatively recent time in Montreal and Sherbrooke, its far less overheated. Its a lot more plausible to claim that (headline, RE transactional) prices won’t fall as much in the less overheated markets, than in the most overheated markets.

Says the bank: “Household vulnerabilities could be exacerbated by a severe recession that is accompanied by a widespread and prolonged rise in unemployment. This could reduce the ability of households to service their debt and cause serious and broad-based declines in house prices.”

Doesn’t even really take a prolonged rise in unemployment to create a lot of trouble. In Alberta, for instance, the employers simply pulling back almost entirely on overtime and other employer-paid perks has been devastating to workers across the entire spectrum. Debt was expanding on the basis that the additional pay would persist forever. Lenders considered bonus income to be a ‘sure bet’ for calculating ratios. But subtract overtime, subtract the perks, and most Alberta workers are at a discount to Ontario rates in the trades.

#19 Tiger1960 on 12.15.15 at 5:30 pm

12 interested party!
About a dollar at the dollar store
Are you from the rock ?

#20 common sense on 12.15.15 at 5:31 pm

Everything comes and goes…C’est la vie…

#21 paul on 12.15.15 at 5:35 pm

#12 Interested Party on 12.15.15 at 5:16 pm

So… umm… how much does a decent helicopter usually go for?
======================================
Who care get the down from a HELOC on your house and go for it.

#22 Freedom First on 12.15.15 at 5:36 pm

…hold me as massively irrelevant & (Of course I don’t matter, but that’s another thing) -Garth

This is perfection.

Knowing this since I was a young man has allowed me to live my life out of the control of others. Freedom. Priceless.

Also, flop, may your surgery go well and our budding friendship continue to flourish. Sincerely, Freedom First.

I wish you good health.

#23 common sense on 12.15.15 at 5:38 pm

#8 Flopper:

Good luck with surgery tomorrow. And the last thing you want is Janet raising anything of yours “up”.

#14 Leslie

A little debt is fine if controlled..a lot of debt is scary…maybe your friend is thinking it’s not so bad “now”…please ask them 3-4 months from now and hear the answer. If I had cash on hand to buy a house there now, I’d be as patient as a monk waiting for the bomb to go off…

#24 Smartalox on 12.15.15 at 5:39 pm

I saw something today about the number of SFH properties in Vancouver that are un-available to long-term renters because they’re all on Air BnB.

http://www.news1130.com/2015/12/15/airbnb-rental-home-market/

Check out the map here (says it all):
http://www.news1130.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/sites/9/2015/12/15/airbnb.jpg

As a loyal blog dog, and liquid, diversified, balanced mid-six figure renter, I’ve been looking for a new place, and have been stymied by the comparatively low, and low quality accommodations offered, particularly in the ‘Whole House’ market.

This seems to me like one of those dark corners of the RE market not counted in conventional statistics:
There are statistics for rentals covered by provincial leases, and there are stats for licensed hotel properties, but unlicensed hotel / short term rentals?

Probably not yet tracked, or one agency thinks that the other one is responsible for tracking it.

So my question is this: I’d expect that the economics of an Air BnB operation have somewhat more margin than conventional rentals (variable pricing, short-term premiums, no ‘income’ to report) – even if the sunk costs are higher – but at what point do these operations fail to break even?

One of the downsides of this sort of ‘disruptive’ innovation, where ‘old business models’ are supplanted by a business lurking in the ‘quasi-legal grey areas’ is that conditions change, failures occur, and because everything happened outside conventional monitoring, the powers that be are caught completely by surprise.

CREA and CMHC prattle on about balanced markets and soft landings, but how soft would the landing be if 4000 new listings suddenly were dumped on the Vancouver market?

#25 Butch on 12.15.15 at 5:40 pm

If rates don’t rise tomorrow what will it take, 110%?

#26 BC Guy on 12.15.15 at 5:41 pm

Rich-guy problems: what to do with the Tesla and chopper. Cry me a river.

You drive to the landing pad. What’s the problem? — Garth

#27 BillyBob on 12.15.15 at 5:43 pm

So, recent schedule finds this poor expat Canuck in Zaragoza, Spain. Sitting at the Bodega del Mercato, on a weekday night. And it struck me, drinking exquisite local wine for 2.20EUR a glass, just how completely Canadians get screwed over. The same glass of wine in Canada would be 9 bucks. The tapas, for 2EUR for the freshest jamón on crusty, REAL bread. Probably about 12 bucks CAD for some crappy app at Earls.

Canadians need to learn how to live. Spain/Italy/Greece etc etc may have their problems. But knowing what’s important in life: wine, fresh food, good conversation, not taking things too seriously…they kick North America’s ass. It was an epiphany. I’m not coming home. Switching locales, perhaps. Tired of the ME. But my money will continue to reside in Switzerland and I will only spend the summers in Canada – not one penny in tax will go to Junior’s communist pipe dreams.

Hey Smokey, just picked up Roger Water’s “The Wall”. Seen it yet? Looking forward to it.

#28 Leo Trollstoy on 12.15.15 at 5:45 pm

#315 Mark on 12.15.15 at 4:30 pm

Market says you’re wrong.

Sorry.

Thanks for playing.

#29 Shawn on 12.15.15 at 5:46 pm

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-15/oil-shock-means-longer-canada-interest-rate-divergence-with-u-s-

How long can the BOC stay at zero?

#30 Ex-Cowtown on 12.15.15 at 5:47 pm

Re: Helicopter stuff

Back in the early 80’s my boss bought a newer Aerospatiale Gazelle for 10 cents on the dollar. He and his wife used it to go blueberry picking.

He held on to it until things smartened up and the made a killing on it.

Vultch time!

#31 LL on 12.15.15 at 5:47 pm

….”One in five have borrowed more than 350% of what they make”….

And curiously, the mortgage has been approved!

Bizarro world…

#32 common sense on 12.15.15 at 5:48 pm

Is it just me or am I feeling a lot of love on this site tonight so close to tomorrow’s lift off and the holiday season? Shucks….

Happy Holidays one and all. And sincerely to you too Freedom First.

I will be on a plane tomorrow am at 6 with my daughter for 2 weeks in the sun, tanning my debt free butt and enjoying Cuba Libres…

#33 Tiger1960 on 12.15.15 at 5:52 pm

DELETED

#34 3s on 12.15.15 at 5:56 pm

In Australia the real estate darling Mgrath’s IPO hit the ASX with a splat;)

#35 IHCTD9 on 12.15.15 at 5:57 pm

#13 BC Guy on 12.15.15 at 5:20 pm
The only way to return sanity to real estate in Canada:

– minimum 20% down payment for houses under $500k
– minimum 50% down payment for houses over $500k
– increase the Bank Of Canada rate a full percent
– provincial and federal governments must put a lot more raw land on the market (crown land), this will also spur development, create jobs, reduce congestion in the major centres
————-

Might as well do a high level bombing run over every residential area in Canada.

#36 Mark on 12.15.15 at 5:59 pm

“So my question is this: I’d expect that the economics of an Air BnB operation have somewhat more margin than conventional rentals (variable pricing, short-term premiums, no ‘income’ to report)”

The AirBNB crowd has to report its income.

In terms of ‘break-even’, I’m not sure that anyone is actually going out to buy a housing unit simply to rent it on such a site. However, such sites do enable (semi-retired) homeowners to, at least in the short term, keep up with their housing related expenses.

If one looks at the opportunity costs associated with having, say, an extra bedroom or two kicking around in a Vancouver SFH (average >$1M), it is highly unlikely that the return is positive. Most likely, the participants are either seeking to reduce their ongoing opportunity costs in (excessive) Vancouver home ownership, or are participating in such arrangements as an extension of their outgoing personalities, desire to meet and serve people, etc.

This is quite unlike a service like Uber, where you have a combination of people looking to reduce their opportunity costs in car ownership and unused spare time, as well as a smaller group of drivers who purchased a (compatible) car for the (mostly) exclusive devotion to Uber as a business activity or a ‘job’. With careful tweaking of the car model purchased, good cost control, and appropriate DIY maintenance, it is perfectly possible to earn a reasonable salary being an Uber(X) driver. But I don’t believe anybody could, in the major cities, buy condos at current prices and rent them out at long-term profit under AirBNB.

#37 saskatoon on 12.15.15 at 6:03 pm

the force awakens…

friday.

#38 LL on 12.15.15 at 6:05 pm

# 6 Incubus

Not true…condos are already selling lower.

Assessment 161k – asking sale price 135k
2 rooms 125k
Lots of condos for sale below evaluation (we did not saw that couple of years ago).

A slow market begins with condos first.
Too much for sale, 1 buyer for 20 condos.

#39 Loon on 12.15.15 at 6:06 pm

You often advocate having 20% of your investment porfolio in US$. Great advice looking through the rear view mirror.

However, if you cash out of your Canadian real estate and you now have a whack of dollarettes that you want to put into a balanced portfolio, and you have no US cash what do you do?

Many economists say the Loonie is close to the bottom and are forecasting a pretty sizeable bump in the next couple of years.

I’m afraid of buying US bucks now – won’t do it – what to do?

#40 ole Doberman on 12.15.15 at 6:07 pm

Gartho whats your prediction on the DOW tomorrow if rates rise – couple thousand point drop knee jerk reaction?

It will drop if rates do not increase. Hike already priced in. — Garth

#41 LL on 12.15.15 at 6:12 pm

# 7 – but the regulators let the housing bubble grow so quickly for so long, with
– irresponsible mortgage policies, and
– cmhc carrying all the risks
and only now beginning to issue warnings.

Exactly…

And it’s so easy to say: “We are not responsible for the peoples bad decision”! Y’a right….

#42 DC on 12.15.15 at 6:12 pm

#17: Net worth @ 40
I agree with Garth about variables, but FWIW, here is a formula I copied out of a financial guidebook years ago (Personal Wealth Mgmt. Model for Cdns, ch 10):

[(average) age x (total) gross yearly income] /10

(average and total are for couples, ignore for single)

#43 chris on 12.15.15 at 6:14 pm

Any guess where the interest rate for 5 year fixed in Canada is going to be in a year? currently best deal at 2.5%. say 3.5%? 4%?

#44 Shankin Janice on 12.15.15 at 6:15 pm

DELETED

#45 John Dimas on 12.15.15 at 6:16 pm

Ted is 70 and should of been retired years ago so it does not matter for him.

People have to learn the hard way. They have to know that there are limits in life and it is not like on T.V. that everything always works out just fine.

#46 Hawk on 12.15.15 at 6:17 pm

Seems ole’ LAUGHING CON’s statement is now finally (partially) coming to boot.

Time to gloat Laughing Con!!!!!!

‘Its gonna be a nasty crash Calgary realtors…………….a nasty nasty crash’ LOL

#47 LL on 12.15.15 at 6:27 pm

# 13 The only way to return sanity to real estate in Canada:

– minimum 20% down payment for houses under $500k
– minimum 50% down payment for houses over $500k

The problem is: to be able to give a 20% down payment you need $$$…they don’t have the 20%!

If you don’t have the 5%-10%-20% down payment..well..don’t buy a house..that’s it.

No money no candy.

But crazy RE market is good for the economy (some field/part).

#48 Today Is A Great Day For Canada on 12.15.15 at 6:28 pm

Today the skies are a little more sunny, the air fresher, the smiles brighter all across Canada.

Today we awake with not a SINGLE Conservative government in Canada.

Nowhere!

The last Tory premier officially got the boot yesterday.

Thanks, Newfoundland and Labrador :)

You did us all proud. :)

An historic end to Conservative governance.

An end to Conservative fiscal and financial lies and incompetence – putting us all in debt to only benefit the wealthiest 1%, degrading our services and infrastructure to pay for tax kickbacks to the wealthiest,
creating a massive real estate bubble and a one trick pony oil business, at great risk to our economy and the planet, simply to buy votes, kicking the can down the road and endlessly building up our debt.

An end to Conservative disregard, racism and bigotry, for our First Nations people, immigrants and women, and against our service men and women.

An end to anti-democratic Stalinist and Hitlerian central control of parties by the leaders’ offices, the undermining of the public service, a culture of fear and intimidation, a culture of lying and deception.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/if-the-newfoundland-election-goes-as-expected-no-single-government-in-canada-will-be-headed-by-a-tory

(And while Brad Build-a-Wall remains in SK, he is irrelevant and without any influence on the national stage)

Thank yourselves, Canadian voters from coast to coast to coast!

The most degenerate, backwards, lying, incompetent bunch of politicians this country has ever seen have now all been swept from power.

This is an epic moment. A new beginning.

December 15, 2015.

Mark your calendars. A much better era for Canada has begun.

Congratulations to all of us :)

#49 I am the Babblemaster on 12.15.15 at 6:30 pm

Nobody ever expect the BoC to lockstep a rate increase tomorrow. But resistance is ultimately futile. — Garth

———————————————————–

Ultimately futile? Yeah, I say the whole thing is a con job. Somebody keeps yellin’ about how great the economy is, but the truth is far from rosy. The world economy can’t afford higher rates no matter what central bank cheerleaders say. Any rate increase will be temporary.

#50 Mark on 12.15.15 at 6:36 pm

“However, if you cash out of your Canadian real estate and you now have a whack of dollarettes that you want to put into a balanced portfolio, and you have no US cash what do you do?”

If you really are that negative on the US dollar’s future (ie: don’t want to buy USD$), but still want exposure to the US stock market, there is always the option of borrowing USD$, and leaving your CAD$ as cash. You’ll take a bit of a hit on interest rate spreads on an ongoing basis, but at least you won’t have to convert any money and the dividends, over time, can pay off the USD$ loan if you invested wisely.

However, currency diversification is important. The USD$ has gone much higher. It still could go higher. Nobody has a crystal ball. A valid approach to the problem is to dollar cost average your purchases into a diversified portfolio (including currency exposure) so your fate isn’t determined by market conditions on a single day.

Any guess where the interest rate for 5 year fixed in Canada is going to be in a year? currently best deal at 2.5%. say 3.5%? 4%?

My (often wrong) guess is probably flat for ‘best deal’, but ‘best deal’ will only be available to an increasingly limited number of borrowers with very good metrics (equity/LTV, balance sheet, income).

The ‘theme’ I’m looking for in 2016 is a significant bifurcation between the sort of credit offers available to the highly creditworthy, and those borrowers who aren’t very creditworthy. The BoC may even throw a policy rate cut or two into the mix, but most consumer borrowers won’t be able to benefit.

#51 Brian Ripley on 12.15.15 at 6:36 pm

On my Monthly Absorption Rate chart:
http://www.chpc.biz/mar-moi.html
… the sentiment change in Calgary and Edmonton began 1H 2014

Now both cities’ ability to bull the real estate market has fallen into the company of Ottawa and Montreal where Months of Inventory have been in Buyer Advantage Territory for years.

Sharpen your pencils.

#52 Canadian on 12.15.15 at 6:38 pm

#48 Today Is A Great Day For Canada on 12.15.15 at 6:28 pm

Look mommy I’m trolling I’m trolling!

#53 No debt on 12.15.15 at 6:40 pm

Hey Garth question #17
The wife and I are 41, we live in kelowna bc
Tradesman and she is a stay at home mom
2 kids 14&12
Thanks

For you, two mill. — Garth

#54 steve on 12.15.15 at 6:40 pm

2 hours from Toronto / real estate sanity / Owen Sound
nice homes for $200k

live a life / camp fires / hiking / beach

#55 LL on 12.15.15 at 6:44 pm

…”And most of these fools live in VYR or the GTA – where fully a third of all mortgage debt is anchored.

This is why the new T2 gang increased down payments between $500 and a million, to try to cool things off (and heat them up in the meantime)”….

A third? What about the other 2/3????

#56 Trev on 12.15.15 at 6:49 pm

The pain train is rolling through Fort Mac right … Avg price down a hundred & a quarter and expected to rise

http://calgaryherald.com/business/real-estate/alberta-home-sales-declines-to-lead-country-for-two-straight-years

#57 prairie person on 12.15.15 at 6:49 pm

As always, it will be the most vulnerable who will get hurt the most. They will not necessarily have much debt, if any. What they will have is a job that already does not pay well. In many Canadian families, it takes two people working full time just to get by. No big houses, no big mortgages, no fancy holidays, no expensive cars. A lot of the people who serve you at the mall or the restaurant or coffee shop or the grocery store, etc. aren’t making enough money to support himself or herself and a spouse, never mind a couple of kids. A lot of people shop at Walmart because that is all the can afford. In Victoria, a lot of people live in someone’s crappy basement. Not just singles. Everyone didn’t get a chance to have a great education, didn’t have someone to help them out with some money. Most people don’t have the mom bank. A lot of people work long hours, take overtime if they can get it, not so they can drive a 70k truck but to pay for winter clothes for their kids. I enjoy Garth’s blog and I even enjoy some of the blogdogs comments but at times I am discouraged by the sense of entitlement and superiority. I don’t believe a lot of the bragging that goes on. It often sounds like members of a high school investment club. As for those realtors, I know a number of them and, yes, I resent the percentage they charge. It should have been reduced as prices have risen. Lots of them don’t make a fortune and not all of them live extravagantly. Garth is right. Pain is coming. Hopefully, it won’t come to anyone who posts here.

#58 Rob on 12.15.15 at 6:52 pm

RE in Surrey BC has gone up almost 70k this year. It may be slowing in Alberta but here it’s going up with lots of new construction all around. The current listings are slim pickings because everythings selling.

#59 Vundo on 12.15.15 at 6:53 pm

#48: pride goeth before the fall. Lots of anger at Wynne, Notley out there. Chance of PC/WR in a few short years. Brad Wall could enter the CPC leadership as a frontrunner and stands a chance of becoming our next prime minister.

And this is before we consider the impact of people blaming their housing and job woes on Trudeau. They will be wrong, of course, but count on it happening in defiance of logic and reason.

Gloat right now if you will, but do take a moment to think about how you will sound looking back on it later.

#60 james on 12.15.15 at 6:57 pm

#48

Can you drop the political rambling?

Anyone who thinks that one type of party or ideology has a lock on corruption and incompetence is an uneducated fool. People respond to incentives. Barring major changes to incentive structures, information asymmetries (etc), you will see very little change. It’s a basic lesson of systems theory that changing a few actors does not change a system.

I have yet to see any party propose major changes to how Canadian governance functions at the provincial or federal level. We still have the major cartels (e.g., banks, telcos), pet industries (e.g., bombardier), elite families (e.g., Desmarais, Irvings, Bronfmans).

Thinking that those various interests suddenly disappeared with the change of government (let alone the civil service, which has its own influence on policy) is rather stupid.

PS: This is a real estate blog, not a blog for ‘progressive’ leftists to preach to the choir.

#61 Mike in Edm on 12.15.15 at 6:58 pm

All of these ‘incentives’ like the Tesla, Helicopter DP, and more normal ones like $20k towards free upgrades that you now commonly see in Edmonton are all attributing to the ‘sticky’ average and median home prices in Edmonton and Calgary. Not really fair to say prices have only dipped 4% when sellers are offering an additional 5-10% of extras.

#62 For those about to flop... on 12.15.15 at 6:58 pm

In the last week or so I have seen Rachael Notley on the news a few times and as a non partisan she strikes me as way more articulate than Christy(Cabbage Patch Kid haircut) Clark.
People argued that Harper only lasted so long because of no real alternative, I guess you could argue the same for the B.C Liberals.
If you take out the housing run up and the 2010 Olympic sideshow ,I actually think B.C has gone backwards since I arrived in 2002.

” common sense ” thanks for the message. Enjoy your trip ,I guess we’re both on holiday for a while.

Females First(sic) I can tell you enjoy the banter which is why we keep at each other, after today’s kind message I have decided that I only dislike you 99.9% ( joking!)
I’m glad we all have different views on life.Take care.

#63 Nemesis on 12.15.15 at 7:00 pm

“When realtors lose their minds, what hope is there for mankind?” – HonGT

#OneSmallStepForAMan… #OneGiantLeapFor…

[CBC] – Unemployed dental assistant loses $14K monthly child support claim

…”Justice Linda Loo noted the couple did not spend “lavishly” on the children during their marriage, and rejected the mother’s concerns about the son’s wish for a mountain bike costing $8,000 to $12,000, noting not all children’s wants are reasonable.”…

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/unemployed-dental-assistant-loses-14k-child-support-claim-1.3365669

[NoteToGT: What are the odds?… A Justice named LindaLoo? If only her parents had exercised the foresight to name her Vinda…]

#64 ILoveCharts on 12.15.15 at 7:03 pm

I’ve got a $100k chunk of USD. Should I keep holding it in USD or convert to CAD tomorrow AM?

#65 Karma on 12.15.15 at 7:04 pm

#278 Doug in London on 12.15.15 at 1:54 pm
“@Karma, post #217:
Personally, I think most if not all of those predictions are rubbish. However, if you think the part about oil going back to $100/barrel is true, why not be in a position to profit from it? Now’s the time to scoop up oil ETFs like XEG-T and USO-NY while they are still on sale.”

——————————————————–

They are meant to be facetious…

#66 DG on 12.15.15 at 7:07 pm

#48 Today Is A Great Day For Canada on 12.15.15 at 6:28 pm

Your sunshine and ponies are on the way.

You live in a dream world if you think anything is really going to change, other than a greater tax burden on the average citizen.

Unless you personally stand to financially benefit from this, You are nothing more than a useful idiot to your party.

Yes, even stupid people are allowed to vote in this county.

#67 Tony on 12.15.15 at 7:07 pm

Re: #43 chris on 12.15.15 at 6:14 pm

My bet would be 2.25 percent fixed rate 5 year mortgage a year from now. I’d also bet U.S. mortgage rates will be about one quarter of a percent lower in one year (30 year mortgage).

#68 slim on 12.15.15 at 7:08 pm

The three deadly sins: Denial. Avoidance. Justification.

#69 LL on 12.15.15 at 7:10 pm

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/dec/15/federal-reserve-meeting-interest-rates-what-to-know

Well, before the September press conference, traders were passing around Yellen’s horoscope. So maybe check that come Wednesday morning. Here is Yellen’s forecast from this week (she’s a Leo, by the way): “Do not be afraid of change, accept it readily.”

#70 Shot Ski on 12.15.15 at 7:10 pm

once US rates increase Wednesday afternoon (current odds 100%)
It likely will happen because, to not do it now, after so much jawboning it would torch whatever credibility the fed has left. But with a few bond funds, and hedge funds exercising their right to deny redemptions, Miss Yelen now has to worry about contagion, and upping the interest rate(more the message than the substance) cannot help matters.

#71 Dan Haroldson on 12.15.15 at 7:16 pm

The liberal way is to make everyone more poor, 50 cents Loonie, carbon taxes, cap and trade costing thousands in extra cost of living for every household.

Don’t forget a double land transfer tax here in Ontario adding minimum $10,000 more+ interest in the thousands and now Ontario residents overpaying $37 billion more than the regular market rate.

Health taxes up to $900 a person, Ontario’s 8% sales tax on everything costing another $3.5 billion a year, ORPP costing another $3 billion a year to start and rising, $4,500 TFSA contribution gone now costing Canadians $2 billion a year in tax free money, Ontario will increase H.S.T. as the Trudeau Liberals increase them, etc. etc.

People are getting and going to get more and more squeezed and there will be more food banks, more homeless and more and more financial pain to come.

Just watch 2016 closely people!

#72 Smoking Man on 12.15.15 at 7:16 pm

Hey Smokey, just picked up Roger Water’s “The Wall”. Seen it yet? Looking forward to it.

Of course, saw the show many times

#73 TurnerNation on 12.15.15 at 7:20 pm

Ontario’s teacher allowing beer to be sold in a few grocery stores with prudish rules.

But marrying your horse is legal in ON I hear. Do what you want.

Good news, we can pay 30% more for our suds than do our neighbors 100 clicks south of us.
Remind me which duopoly controls most of Kanada’s drinks? Good old Kanada.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/7-odd-rules-for-ontario-grocery-stores-selling-beer-1.3366498

#74 No debt on 12.15.15 at 7:20 pm

Thanks for answering Garth. I don’t know anyone that is in my age category that is worth 2 million or even close

#75 LL on 12.15.15 at 7:20 pm

Apparently Mrs Yellen promised to rise IR.

I would say, this time, she might rise IR.

End of 2015…sounds a good timing.

#76 Nagraj on 12.15.15 at 7:21 pm

“Inn on the Moor” cont’d

The first thunderclap was the loudest Sir Gareth ever heard. He screamed in fear, “Aaack!”
Fidelio also screamed (a “Waff!” in lieu of a woof) leapt off the bed and skidaddled under it, and, trembling, softly whined most pitifully.
Sir Gareth, afraid that Fidelio might suffer a heart attack, considered whether to coax the dog out from under the bed or to join him. But the second thunderclap, even louder than the first, decided this debate: Sir Gareth too leapt from the bed and skidaddled under it.
To an untrained ear their Aaacks and Waffs under the bed as the storm progressed might have seemed indistinguishable.

In his de luxe chamber Lord Gloomerdoomer’s condition was far worse. He too jumped out of bed, but in doing so knocked over the nighstand. The Port rolled onto the floor and as with one foot he stepped on the bottle, and with the other on a littering poetic page of “The Highwaywoman”, he slipped, fell backward, and hit his aristocratic head against one of the cherub-carved bedposts.
As he lay unconscous in this storm-strobelit room the deposed candle’s nearly dead flame found another page of “The Highwaywoman” with which to revive its fading life . . .

. . . riding riding riding . . . the Highwaywoman daring the tempest, cursing Zeus and Thor and all Heaven itself, spurring her best horse bloody, turned onto the road to the Inn on the Moor, meaning to save her trusty steed further agony and to find for herself a little rest.

TBC

#77 RayofLight on 12.15.15 at 7:22 pm

#48 Today Is A Great Day For Canada..

I’m sorry “Today is a Great Day for Canadians”, but my 2L bottle of “Could give a shit” is empty. Let me double check ,just in case…… Yes, it still is.

#78 Rob on 12.15.15 at 7:22 pm

Harper screwed the working class with debt. Justin and his equal opportunity friends will be full of scandals in time. Tom and his friends will never make government, thank god. The greens are a wasted vote and live in a dream world. We are so screwed.

#79 TurnerNation on 12.15.15 at 7:22 pm

Bread, Beer and Circuses. As we’ll not see a penny of the billions Ontario Hydro was just sold for. Not a cent. Sunshine list salaries all around.

Parents, ensure your kids get a job in public sector. 3 year liberal arts degree all the way.

#80 Karma on 12.15.15 at 7:25 pm

#42 DC on 12.15.15 at 6:12 pm
“#17: Net worth @ 40
I agree with Garth about variables, but FWIW, here is a formula I copied out of a financial guidebook years ago (Personal Wealth Mgmt. Model for Cdns, ch 10):

[(average) age x (total) gross yearly income] /10

(average and total are for couples, ignore for single)”

Thanks for sharing this.

#81 Entrepreneur on 12.15.15 at 7:28 pm

“because expenses have accelerated and revenue is dropping” then the lights were turned off. That is how a business runs and that is how we as a whole should operate with every operation, private or public. Let the people decide but this only happens when convenient.

“When the realtors lose their minds, what hope is there for mankind” funny, realtors versus mankind. Though, this might be the peak of greed and credit or the sliding scale of it.

#82 Herf on 12.15.15 at 7:29 pm

#12 Interested Party

“So… umm… how much does a decent helicopter usually go for?”

New or used?

Here’s some used ones to get you started:

http://www.globalplanesearch.com/canada/helicopters/

If you wait long enough, maybe you can pick up a RCN Sea King as government surplus!

#83 LL on 12.15.15 at 7:36 pm

# 64 – I’ve got a $100k chunk of USD. Should I keep holding it in USD or convert to CAD tomorrow AM?

Why? Do you think rising IR will affect your US money?

#84 gut check on 12.15.15 at 7:37 pm

@ #57 prairie person on 12.15.15 at 6:49 pm

thank you for that post.

#85 Jeff B on 12.15.15 at 7:39 pm

Re: #12 (Interested Party)

“So… umm… how much does a decent helicopter usually go for?”

A lightweight 2-seater can be had for US$100. If you’re feeling like you need to be represented, the realtor will be happy to find you one for upwards of 350, plus commission.

#86 Today Is A Great Day For Canada on 12.15.15 at 7:41 pm

Free at last, we are free at last of Conservative governments in Canada!

The last time our country was free of stupid Conservative governments for any extended period was between 1935 and 1943.

What did we accomplish? Oh, not much……

1.We ended the Great Depression.

2.We created a fairer society.

3.We saved Britain and helped build the foundation for the defeat of Hitler.

4.We laid the groundwork for progressive changes in labour, the employment of women, and decades of middle class prosperity ahead.

5.We were international leaders, not pariahs like Harper, helping to create the framework for lasting global peace and the UN.

6.We built an industrial base that diversified our economy and served us well for decades.

So today, December 15, 2015, we celebrate the first full day of no Conservative governance anywhere in this country.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/cabinet-swearing-in-live-stream-1.3363654

The voters are always right. They have torn off the disgusting, toxic scab of neo-conservative idiot-ology, and thrown it into the dustbin of Canadian history, where it belongs.

Harris. Harper. Prentice. Etc…. Conservative parties in this country for the last two decades have been too often repositories of toxic scum and incompetence, blinded by the stupidest and most simplistic of ideologies (still spouted by some of the Conservatards in this comment section – morons.)

It’s a new era. We will all get a lot of positive things accomplished these next years ahead.

Conservatives? Hang your heads in shame. You are the scum of this planet.

#87 Gregor Samsa on 12.15.15 at 7:44 pm

The Australian Taxpayers’ Alliance released a video in response to the proposed multi-million dollar taxpayer bailout of the taxi industry for not being to compete successfully with modern alternatives like Uber:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_tjZchYXMmA

#88 Bram on 12.15.15 at 7:45 pm

#64 ILoveCharts
I’ve got a $100k chunk of USD. Should I keep holding it in USD or convert to CAD tomorrow AM?

That’s easy: hold the USD, because the Federal Reserve system is about to increase interest rate, whereas the Bank of Canada is going to lower it in the new year, mark my words. As time progresses, maybe even to a 0.0% BoC rate?

Both of these actions will widen the gap between USD and CAD. And make no mistake about it: Canadian economy needs this to happen as well. Finance minister keeps confirming: #1 goal of his department is economic growth.

Bram

#89 Nanaimo Bar on 12.15.15 at 7:46 pm

#15 Governor Poloz

Great to see you posting here. I always wondered when you would show up.

I just have a few questions about your quote at the end of the same article.

” If and when the Fed does raise rates, Poloz said, it was likely Canadian long-term interest rates would rise in sympathy with U.S. bond yields, and the bank would take this into account as it revises its forecasts.”

How do plan on combatting rising Canadian long term interest rates to save the housing? Will QE be an option? If you plan on QE, could you please recommend a Walmart parking lot where I can find my food. I will not be able to afford to buy groceries in the store because as you know, the prices of goods will be increasing. I will be fighting for food in the parking lot with the Seagulls.

Much appreciated.

Thanks.

#90 Yuus bin Haad on 12.15.15 at 7:49 pm

#2 Canadian

How about “Nobody saw it coming …”?

#91 The American on 12.15.15 at 7:50 pm

At #67: Tony, two weeks ago you also said the USD had definitely peaked. Only for the CAD to lose another 4-5 cents since then, while the USD continues upward. Watch what happens after tomorrow, idiot. Truly, investment advice is easy when you blog. Whatever you say is precisely the opposite of what will happen. Bravo to you, the biggest idiot in the village!

#92 Brock Solutions Inc. on 12.15.15 at 7:51 pm

Times are tough in manufacturing here in Ontario. There is a large number of Serbians who work in our plant and while I try to be friendly and easy-going with everyone, one Serbian (who regularly wears a ‘Superman’ T-shirt) came up to me at lunch and said “There’s a new policy here in effect, you have to give to me $5 at lunch.” I look at him and start walking away, thinking its a joke. He immedately grabs my shirt and pulls me around so hard that he rips my shirt. His face is red with rage, he said “I’M NOT KIDDING, I’LL KILL YOU LITTLE SH*T !” I told him to watch out, he ripped my shit. He immediately slams his fist into my face, blood starts gushing out of my nose. He walks away saying, $5 tomorrow or you are a dead man !!!

I go to the plant manager and ask him to call the police. The police determine that I don’t have enough proof to lay any charges.

I’m going to bring a knife into work tomorrow and if he tries again, I’m going to gut him like a fish, slice him right open, so he won’t try that again with anyone.

Now that is how difficult times are getting here in Ontario Manufacturing.

#93 IHCTD9 on 12.15.15 at 7:51 pm

#59 DG on 12.15.15 at 7:07 pm
#48 Today Is A Great Day For Canada on 12.15.15 at 6:28 pm

Your sunshine and ponies are on the way.

You live in a dream world if you think anything is really going to change, other than a greater tax burden on the average citizen.
___________________________________________

Yep, Morneau says he won’t cut back on spending, and won’t be held to the 10 Billion deficit either.

Bill wants to forget about hard numbers altogether and talk debt to GDP ratio instead. That is probably the last we will hear of the actual deficit number via the CBC.

He’s banking on increased economic activity to hide the deficit behind a ratio? Bill either doesn’t read the news, or he knows he’s in big trouble.

If Bill sticks to his guns and does not reduce spending, makes no cuts, while continually making policy that reduces government revenue, he’s going to have some serious problems with “open and honest” discussions with Canadians before 2016 is done. You can see right out of the gate he is already trying to “not talk” about the deficit.

Government revenue is going to absolutely tank in 2016 short of an act of divine intervention.

According to the Liberals, Harper left them a 3 Billion deficit ending 2015. (That giant asshole! He is so mean! I’m so happy he’s gone! etc… etc…)

Let’s see how Trudeau fares.

As for me, I am DAMN glad I am over 40.

Late 20 somethings better start considering a move to the US. We’re likely looking at a decade minimum before your soon to be situation will improve.

Think about it – if you blow your thirties money wise, you are essentially screwed for life.

#94 canuck on 12.15.15 at 7:55 pm

#64 ILoveCharts on 12.15.15 at 7:03 pm

I’ve got a $100k chunk of USD. Should I keep holding it in USD or convert to CAD tomorrow AM?
______________________________________________

How is it that people with so much money can ask such stupid questions?

#95 espressobob on 12.15.15 at 7:56 pm

#39 Loon
#64 I Love Charts

USD a problem?

Ever considered a financial advisor?

#96 For those about to flop... on 12.15.15 at 7:56 pm

#86 Today Is A Great Day For Canada on 12.15.15 at 7:41 pm
Free at last, we are free at last of Conservative governments in Canada!

The last time our country was free of stupid Conservative governments for any extended period was between 1935 and 1943.

What did we accomplish? Oh, not much……

1.We ended the Great Depression.

2.We created a fairer society.

3.We saved Britain and helped build the foundation for the defeat of Hitler.

4.We laid the groundwork for progressive changes in labour, the employment of women, and decades of middle class prosperity ahead.

5.We were international leaders, not pariahs like Harper, helping to create the framework for lasting global peace and the UN.

6.We built an industrial base that diversified our economy and served us well for decades.

So today, December 15, 2015, we celebrate the first full day of no Conservative governance anywhere in this country.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/cabinet-swearing-in-live-stream-1.3363654

The voters are always right. They have torn off the disgusting, toxic scab of neo-conservative idiot-ology, and thrown it into the dustbin of Canadian history, where it belongs.

Harris. Harper. Prentice. Etc…. Conservative parties in this country for the last two decades have been too often repositories of toxic scum and incompetence, blinded by the stupidest and most simplistic of ideologies (still spouted by some of the Conservatards in this comment section – morons.)

It’s a new era. We will all get a lot of positive things accomplished these next years ahead.

Conservatives? Hang your heads in shame. You are the scum of this planet.

//////////////////////////////////////////

Trollin’ Trollin’ Trollin’ ……Rawhide!

#97 tkid on 12.15.15 at 7:56 pm

#42, there is no way I can save that much money … oh wait, divide by 10 …

#98 rawdiswar on 12.15.15 at 7:58 pm

Dear Canadians,

Please start paying attention to American criticism of us. Like this guy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tctS_vAxNOg

Watch all of Mike Maloney’s stuff, not for the gold buying part, but for what he actually says.

Put down the fantasy hockey pools and lotto tickets and Tinder, and pay attention.

#99 tkid on 12.15.15 at 7:58 pm

Garth, Dude Garth, did Poloz say the Canuck economy was on track? 36000 jobs lost and he thinks the economy is on track? Has Poloz been drinking, or is his problem he doesn’t drink enough?

#100 Mike on 12.15.15 at 8:01 pm

A builder in Calgary sent me email today. We have been visiting them to buy.

2 quick possession homes they have listed for 570k are on sale for 499k, until Christmas only !!!! Ha, Really only till Christmas….

#101 Mark on 12.15.15 at 8:05 pm

““because expenses have accelerated and revenue is dropping” then the lights were turned off. That is how a business runs and that is how we as a whole should operate with every operation, private or public. Let the people decide but this only happens when convenient. “

Not only that, but certain Realtors might only want to be associated with the better part of the cycle, the up-cycle. Rather than having to face the hoardes of families who bought the pro forma dream they sold of prosperity through highly leveraged home ownership, and the shattering of that dream now in progress.

Realtors will still have some transactional work in the future, but I suspect the banks will drive a much harder bargain on fees than the traditional Realtor fee schedule which has only been minimally challenged over past decade of abnormally high prices.

#102 Linda on 12.15.15 at 8:13 pm

So the incentives these realtors are giving to purchasers – a $100K Tesla here, a $350K downpayment for a helicopter there – say one thing only. Nope, not ‘desperate realtor’ but rather ‘overpriced property by $100K/$350K’. In other words, plenty of room to negotiate that price downwards. Though with those offered incentives, the properties in question are likely not affordable for most.

#103 Mark on 12.15.15 at 8:15 pm

According to the Liberals, Harper left them a 3 Billion deficit ending 2015. (That giant asshole! He is so mean! I’m so happy he’s gone! etc… etc…)

Only a $3B deficit? The debt of Canada has already risen by $13B this year, mostly under Tory rule.

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/markets/government-securities-auctions/goc-t-bills-and-bonds-outstanding/

And this is with billions apparently left appropriated, but not spent in the various departments.

Imagine how bad it will be next year without meaningful spending cuts, automatic across-the-board negotiated raises in the public services’ collective bargaining agreements, and a dramatic slowdown in revenue. Against a backdrop of increasing expenditure on EI and various other employment-correlated social programs. Toss CMHC’s contingent (soon to turn actual) liabilities onto the pile, and Justin might have Canada’s national debt close to the $1T mark sooner or later.

Heck, with the sort of tax loss selling that many are in the process of engaging in, especially in the decimated O&G and mining sectors, the government may very well be on the hook for substantial retroactive tax refunds as individuals and businesses carry back their capital losses.

#104 Leo Trollstoy on 12.15.15 at 8:19 pm

#13 BC Guy on 12.15.15 at 5:20 pm

That would plunge the Canadian RE market into chaos.

I like it.

#105 WakeUpPeople on 12.15.15 at 8:21 pm

While many here want to be smug about how they have avoided the pending real estate crisis nobody even wants to take a sniff about what is going on in global currency markets, and the bond markets (junk bonds, energy etc). Never before in our history has a country invoked a program like ZIRP and then been able to raise rates in a slow and steady pace. Additionally, the US is about to raise rates while every other nation is invoking stimulus? So…go ahead and assume that all is fine in the US and everywhere else for that matter other than Canada….but if you stop and take your head out of the sand for a second…you may want to assess a little further that the next few years could be highly volatile with some major financial dislocation.

#106 Retired Boomer WI on 12.15.15 at 8:21 pm

VGHAX that Vanguard Healthcare fund has returned 11.27% for the year. Yup up more than 100% in 5 years, good to see old Boomers spending on healthcare. Who says demographics aren’t destiny?

The rest of the portfolio is meh.

Tomorrow: Will she, or won’t share raise rates?? If so bet on a .25% at best. Short rate stuff really won’t matter to the mortgage guys, but it IS a trend line.

Market made me a few grand today, but it is merely filling in a whole from last week. Portfolio is set for now, balanced, and returning a few long lost nickels.

So, the wifey & I took out our $100 blow money and went for cocktails to the ridge. Why worry about the BS you can no longer control? We have enough, are debt-free 64 and reasonably set with reasonable expectations from here to room temperature.

Now, if I could convince the idiot kid to save 25% of his net for tomorrow, he could be there in a mere 15 years, but no. The dumb fool tends to consume 110% of his earnings. So, no inheritance you fool, work till you croak!
He’s our only one, but I didn’t sacrifice for a ‘trust fund’ baby. You will toil for your daily bread. How ya like them apples? The Boomer has spoken. You will inherit enough for a decent used KIA. Nobody “deserves” a house, or a good education, but merely the opportunity to earn it by ones own wits.

You, son are witless…

#107 Arb Watson on 12.15.15 at 8:23 pm

No debt on 12.15.15 at 6:40 pm

Hey Garth question #17
The wife and I are 41, we live in kelowna bc
Tradesman and she is a stay at home mom
2 kids 14&12
Thanks

For you, two mill. — Garth

How is that even possible? You would need to save like 100K a year.

Most of the retirement assumptions of how much money you need to retire are simply fairy tales. Most people will never come close to that type of savings as things will get in the way.

The dude who asked actually has two mill. Don’t ask me how I know. — Garth

#108 LL on 12.15.15 at 8:24 pm

So what if the Fed rise IR in USA..we live in Canada.

BoC is capable to lower IR in Canada even if in US they getting higher? We might not follow the US.

So we should check BoC, not the Fed.

#109 Fortune500 on 12.15.15 at 8:24 pm

#27 BillyBob I here ya. How does Panama sound? Friendly Nations Visa and just stay off shore. Don’t even need to really live there.

#110 IHCTD9 on 12.15.15 at 8:25 pm

#86 Today Is A Great Day For Canada on 12.15.15 at 7:41 pm

It’s a new era. We will all get a lot of positive things accomplished these next years ahead.
__________________________________________

Son, come to Ontario and behold what positives a decade plus of liberal rule has brought us.

Let us talk again this time next year LOL!

#111 Train Insane in Calgary on 12.15.15 at 8:34 pm

There really isnt an answer because Calgary is expensive. Rents are the same as mortgages. It is sad because people with no job security are forced to take enormous risk with a mortgage or pay someone else to live in their place. That defines Calgary for those post 2005.

For everyone before 2005 that have a paid mortgage, there is the dilemma if they are able to sell before retirement. Chances are they are, and likely will still make a profit, hopefully, however if they have done a renovation to make their place marketable that of course makes profit margins narrower, if at all.

The sad reality is that many people are suffering. Im just a peon and yet the suffering is depressing. Through no fault of their own, many workers are displaced with crushed dreams. At the same time, it is better to fight because anger is more productive than depression. For those contemplating suicide for whatever reason, I would say, dont do it!! There are always things you can do to ease your stress: Exercise, drinking, women, board games, some of these hobbies are safer than others, but find something, anything, and get your mind off your stress! For me, it is chess and Wei-Chi(go game), weightlifting, and drum pads and guitar. These juvenile hobbies keep me training at an insane level and keeps my mind sharp and keen to keep fighting. Fight aging. Fight depression.

#112 Arb Watson on 12.15.15 at 8:35 pm

The dude who asked actually has two mill. Don’t ask me how I know. — Garth

You know, cause you drank all that scotch.

#113 The wall | Realties.ca on 12.15.15 at 8:36 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/12/15/the-wall-3/ […]

#114 TurnerNation on 12.15.15 at 8:38 pm

The only way to make money is in trading. Trade your labour for money. Trade financial instruments. Trade houses.

In school they teach you to trade your money and time for….education.

I’ve spent 50% of my life under control and education of State-paid agents (Unionistas and leftists) .
Letssee… JK to Grade 13 and 4 years undergrad + 2 years part time grad. WTF – lol @ education.

#115 2 mil on 12.15.15 at 8:42 pm

The dude who asked actually has two mill. Don’t ask me how I know. — Garth

#74 No debt on 12.15.15 at 7:20 pm

Thanks for answering Garth. I don’t know anyone that is in my age category that is worth 2 million or even close

===

The dude must be a good pretender then… or maybe he is “richer than you think”?

#116 VB on 12.15.15 at 8:47 pm

Nice move in preferred’s and cpd in anticipation of the fed perhaps!!

#117 JWD on 12.15.15 at 8:59 pm

#74 #107

I think many people would be disheartened with knowing they should have anywhere close to a net worth of 2 mil at 41 no matter what variables. I would say half of that would be outstanding. It’s not a race and don’t beat yourself up people. Enjoy your life, wine, good food, and people around you. Save but live it up as well

#118 War is a racket on 12.15.15 at 9:00 pm

Isis twitter accounts tracked back to British intelligence service ip address.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/technology-science/technology/hackers-trace-isis-twitter-accounts-7010417

Wonder what Smoking man’s take is on this…

#119 TurnerNation on 12.15.15 at 9:05 pm

Ha just now saw Julie K’s post.

#120 salonist on 12.15.15 at 9:15 pm

sm
new invention in town.toilet with two buttons.
i can get you the inside scoop.no, now what your thinking.
registered for the eco list
button a for number 1
button b for number 2

nectonite to nectonite
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLtPp_xIpC4

gst+
remember garth shaking his head at harper lowering the gst and revenue lost.

#121 BS on 12.15.15 at 9:17 pm

#86 Today Is A Great Day For Canada on 12.15.15 at 7:41 pm

It’s a new era. We will all get a lot of positive things accomplished these next years ahead.

Can you left wing wackos just take responsibility that Canada is already under the rule of people like T2 and Notley. Since these misfits have come into power the CAD dollar and TSX have tanked, the deficits sky rocketed, unemployment increased and we are heading into an economic abyss in Canada with Alberta leading the way. Nothing good has happened yet under left wing rule and the only thing anyone can grasp to look forward to is legal weed. Of course legal weed will be 4 times as expensive as todays illegal weed.

Four years from now you and every other fool that voted in these misfits will be begging for a return of the Conservatives.

#122 ben on 12.15.15 at 9:24 pm

Mark

Montreal is overpriced. In the UK the pattern was for London to inflate first, then it spreads out to the regions.

On the way down the regions fell first (and often far) then it eventually worked it’s way back to the centre.

Northern Ireland was way less “overheated” yet absolutely cratered, for example.

I think your analysis is too simplistic.

#123 MI6 on 12.15.15 at 9:33 pm

#118 War is a racket on 12.15.15 at 9:00 pm

Isis twitter accounts tracked back to British intelligence service ip address.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/technology-science/technology/hackers-trace-isis-twitter-accounts-7010417

Wonder what Smoking man’s take is on this…

honey pot, counter intelligence, disinformation, conspiracy

pick what you prefer… let us know your choice.

Otherwise, no comment

#124 Washed Up Lawyer on 12.15.15 at 9:33 pm

Interesting.

I step outside for a smoke up here in Ft. McMurray. Minus 8 degrees and an interesting atmospheric condition. There is a roar coming from the north. It could be Highway 63 but it sounds more like the Syncrude and Suncor plants pounding out 500,000 barrels per day of $22 (US) oil from 20 minutes north of here.

Bee Gees 1977. “Stayin’ Alive”.

#125 Leo Trollstoy on 12.15.15 at 9:34 pm

The dude must be a good pretender then… or maybe he is “richer than you think”?

No. $2m by 40 is mildly challenging as a wage slave but entirely doable.

As a successful entrepreneur or investor it’s not a lot.

No ego. No boasting. Just saying.

#126 Smoking Man on 12.15.15 at 9:35 pm

#118 War is a racket on 12.15.15 at 9:00 pm
Isis twitter accounts tracked back to British intelligence service ip address.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/technology-science/technology/hackers-trace-isis-twitter-accounts-7010417

Wonder what Smoking man’s take is on this…
….

Its no secret Isis was created by the west, and still supported by the west, those Toyota’s came from USA shipped to Turkey. Turkey backing them.

The are paid mercenaries, Assad has to go..that’s there job.

Now that Russia is bombing the shit out of them.. Brittan , getting into the bombing game, they will say bombing Isis but they are going after Assad forces.

See what great powers do to secure oil.and gas markets..

Canada, and the new govt…

Jesus. They bomb there oun house, and chear about it.

Kill oil sands, woooohoooo

#127 x-moose on 12.15.15 at 9:39 pm

Today: annual performance review for yours truly with the Fortune 10, DJIA company here in LA. Stellar performance, but no raise and the meager 2.5% bonus. Reason stated – currency headwinds and the need to return value to the shareholders. Not as bad as in Fort Mac yet, but don’t hold your breath for US economy to pull it for you, Garth.

#128 Leo Trollstoy on 12.15.15 at 9:40 pm

Just to clarify.

It makes sense than $2m is more challenging as a wage slave than a successful entrepreneur or investor.

One trades time for $, so it’s somewhat challenging to get $2m because there’s a limited number of hours. But it’s doable if that’s the goal.

A successful entrepreneur or investor doesn’t trade time for $ as explicitly as a wage slave, so it’s ‘easier’ to hit $x million depending on their specialty.

#129 VB on 12.15.15 at 9:43 pm

#118

if the originated IP is known sure but that would be a very very simple find, more often IP addresses can be substituted, tunnelled, encyrpted and tunnelled your not going to know the source. So I guess if the party is not very advanced they could be traced.

#130 No debt on 12.15.15 at 9:47 pm

The reason I ask is that at lunch today all the guys were talking about net worths, I said minus all ur leavraged real estate and one guy said he would be worth nothing then, i said ur in the hole then. He didn’t agree , moron

#131 Hope & Change (Canada) on 12.15.15 at 9:51 pm

#86 Today Is A Great Day For Canada on 12.15.15 at 7:41 pm

It’s a new era. We will all get a lot of positive things accomplished these next years ahead.

Maybe define these ‘positive things’ so that we can come back in these ‘next years ahead’ and compare notes.

Looks like you’re about to get an education.

#132 Prairieboy43 on 12.15.15 at 9:52 pm

$2,000,[email protected], Is achievable. Even if you are not a Pro Athlete, Lotto Winner, YVR property owner or 16 yr old rock star, or into drug sales!

Make wealth from the Neck Up!

PB43

#133 Smoking Man on 12.15.15 at 9:58 pm

Is it just me, but man.

If a strong gust of wind hit Rubio, he would go airborne with those elephant ears.

#134 SEC news on 12.15.15 at 10:03 pm

Just in time, SEC approves plan to issue stock via Bitcoin’s blockchain

http://www.wired.com/2015/12/sec-approves-plan-to-issue-company-stock-via-the-bitcoin-blockchain/

It’s designed to provide a secure, transparent, reliable, and largely automatic way of tracking who owns a given security at any given time…. it could replace systems run by the New York and Nasdaq stock exchanges. Such a system could eliminate many of the middlemen who have traditionally controlled the market, and thanks to its technological precision, it could close certain market loopholes. “There are all kinds of ways to rig the market,” Byrne told WIRED earlier this year. “We want to make it un-rig-able.”

TØ is now just one of several efforts to reinvent the financial markets via the blockchain. Even Nasdaq is looking at it. Nasdaq OMX, the company behind the Nasdaq stock exchange, is building a system that uses the blockchain to oversee trades in private companies, but the company says it could also apply similar tech to the public stock markets.

#135 Aggregator on 12.15.15 at 10:06 pm

(UK Presales) Thousands of unwanted newly built homes set to be 'dumped on the London market'

As many as 60,000 homes bought off-plan [presale] in new developments in areas such as Nine Elms are scheduled for completion by the end of 2017 and many will be put up for sale immediately because of the growing disillusion with London, it says. 

Utilizing Quality Function Deployment Technique for Marketing Canadian Residential Property to High-Net-Worth Chinese Investors (PDF)

Pricing of Presale Properties with Construction Uncertainties (PDF)

"A forward property contract presents an agreement between a buyer, i.e. the investor, and a seller, i.e. the developer, that the buyer commits to buy a property to be completed in the future at a specified price. The transfer of rights of the said property would usually be the date of completion of the construction.  Developers tend to sell their uncompleted properties through the use of forward contracts at the planning or during the construction stage in order to enhance their financial viability of large-scale housing developments.  This practice has been popular in cities with high rates of population growth like Kuala Lumpa, London, Toronto, Singapore, Beijing and Hong Kong."

It's what you don't see that usually pops the bubble.

#136 IHCTD9 on 12.15.15 at 10:07 pm

#103 Mark on 12.15.15 at 8:15 pm
According to the Liberals, Harper left them a 3 Billion deficit ending 2015. (That giant asshole! He is so mean! I’m so happy he’s gone! etc… etc…)

Only a $3B deficit? The debt of Canada has already risen by $13B this year, mostly under Tory rule.

http://www.bankofcanada.ca/markets/government-securities-auctions/goc-t-bills-and-bonds-outstanding/

And this is with billions apparently left appropriated, but not spent in the various departments.

Imagine how bad it will be next year without meaningful spending cuts, automatic across-the-board negotiated raises in the public services’ collective bargaining agreements, and a dramatic slowdown in revenue. Against a backdrop of increasing expenditure on EI and various other employment-correlated social programs. Toss CMHC’s contingent (soon to turn actual) liabilities onto the pile, and Justin might have Canada’s national debt close to the $1T mark sooner or later.

Heck, with the sort of tax loss selling that many are in the process of engaging in, especially in the decimated O&G and mining sectors, the government may very well be on the hook for substantial retroactive tax refunds as individuals and businesses carry back their capital losses.
————-

That 3 billion deficit number comes straight from the Libs.

Yes, next year is going to be a horror show – Texas chainsaw massacre style. The list of things likely to reduce government revenue and increase expenditures is a bloody long one.

Individual efforts will be piled on top of the Corporate losses as well. I can guarantee my 2016 tax return will be bigger than 2015’s. I’m saving every receipt, and pushing the limits to the max.

The most savings for me though, will come in the form of efforts to avoid taxation at the consumption level – and that comes with the bigger benefit of eliminating or reducing the expenditure as a whole in the first place. Of course, this action is bad for businesses as well but, a guy’s gotta do what a guy’s gotta do. What happens if there are 10 million Canadians just like me out there?

I’m hoping T2 and Co. will come to their senses before too long…

#137 Hope & Ruin on 12.15.15 at 10:11 pm

#111 Train Insane in Calgary on 12.15.15 at 8:34 pm
It is sad because people with no job security are forced to take enormous risk with a mortgage or pay someone else to live in their place.

Paying rent = oppression in Canada.

I can’t believe how often I hear this sentiment. A combination of pity and disgust if you’re one one the plebs who must pay someone else’s mortgage.

Real freedom is being anchored to a massive mortgage. Those plebs are such fools.

Not a reference to you specifically insane train, just a general observation. I agree with most of your post. If housing crashes your advice will be important. Take care of your mental health.

#138 Victor V on 12.15.15 at 10:20 pm

Fort McMurray sees plunge of nearly $125,000 in average home price with more pain to come

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/fort-mcmurray-sees-plunge-of-nearly-125000-in-average-home-price-with-more-pain-to-come

#139 senta on 12.15.15 at 10:22 pm

Never fear. The T2 gang has a plan. The Syrian refugees have landed and headed to Calgary with loads of federal cash to revive cowtown

#140 Drill Baby Drill on 12.15.15 at 10:29 pm

#111 Train Insane in Calgary
You are right in your approach to depression. We will need the younger generation to fight. The fight will be required to fight the taxation tsunami that is about to hit us. High taxation means low employment for the young generation.

#141 Drill Baby Drill on 12.15.15 at 10:31 pm

#86 Today Is A Great Day For Canada

This person is an idiot. Period.

#142 Fuzzy Camel on 12.15.15 at 10:49 pm

Get ready for NO rate hike tomorrow. Oh, how the doomer’s and those shorting the market will cry this week.

Relax, and get ready for an ISIS Christmas! Phoney baloney shootings will be staged across Canada. The UN small arms treaty will be demanded by the libtards as the solution.

US will get hit worse, expect multifaceted, cyber attacks on the banks. Those digits won’t mean much soon. New years will go off with a big bang, literally. Expect global oil sales to be denominated in SDR’s, USD will be knee capped.

The fuzzy prophet has spoken.

Sit back with some egg nog, and watch the fireworks! You didn’t think they’d bring in the new world order without some deception did you?

New year, new world order. Agenda 21 on steroids starts in 2016!

Our housing, currency, stock, bond, paper bubble will popped! The readers here will rejoin, until the conscription letter arrives. Get ready for WW3.

Merry ISIS Christmas.

#143 Smoking Man on 12.15.15 at 10:55 pm

#141 Drill Baby Drill on 12.15.15 at 10:31 pm
#86 Today Is A Great Day For Canada

This person is an idiot. Period
….
No argument from me.

Might I add, a moron from the religon of stupid.

Modern day libs destiny , community happy poverty, saving the planet is all that matters. Great job teachers.

Getting bent over and boned by shitty un skilled liers is an hounor to them. if you got to give it up. At leased make the fantacy believable.

The fking arrogance of these no brain creatures walking the earth singing cumbya my lord.

Its hallarious to a non earthling.

#144 For those about to flop... on 12.15.15 at 11:00 pm

Last year I got a dividend from mutual fund in my tfsa ,so I knew I did not have to report this at tax time.
However I bought some more of this fund in unregistered account and was wondering what will happen at tax time.
I tried to do some research after Garth talked about
Dividend tax credits for Canadian ETFs but now I’m confused as to what happens with an international fund
The fund is Can eq 20% Int eq 20% U.S eq 20% 40 bonds.What happens at tax time?

#145 Lorne on 12.15.15 at 11:06 pm

#48 Today Is A Great Day For Canada

Today the skies are a little more sunny, the air fresher, the smiles brighter all across Canada.

Today we awake with not a SINGLE Conservative government in Canada.

Nowhere!

The last Tory premier officially got the boot yesterday.

Thanks, Newfoundland and Labrador :)

You did us all proud. :)

An historic end to Conservative governance.

An end to Conservative fiscal and financial lies and incompetence – putting us all in debt to only benefit the wealthiest 1%, degrading our services and infrastructure to pay for tax kickbacks to the wealthiest,
creating a massive real estate bubble and a one trick pony oil business, at great risk to our economy and the planet, simply to buy votes, kicking the can down the road and endlessly building up our debt.

An end to Conservative disregard, racism and bigotry, for our First Nations people, immigrants and women, and against our service men and women.

An end to anti-democratic Stalinist and Hitlerian central control of parties by the leaders’ offices, the undermining of the public service, a culture of fear and intimidation, a culture of lying and deception.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/if-the-newfoundland-election-goes-as-expected-no-single-government-in-canada-will-be-headed-by-a-tory

(And while Brad Build-a-Wall remains in SK, he is irrelevant and without any influence on the national stage)

Thank yourselves, Canadian voters from coast to coast to coast!

The most degenerate, backwards, lying, incompetent bunch of politicians this country has ever seen have now all been swept from power.

This is an epic moment. A new beginning.

December 15, 2015.

Mark your calendars. A much better era for Canada has begun.

Congratulations to all of us :)

…………
Not quite! Unfortunately we still have a Conservative government in BC…..masquerading under the “Liberal” name (when MLA’s resign to run for the federal Conservatives, well……. ) Their time will come in the next election in May 2017.

#146 Lorne on 12.15.15 at 11:18 pm

#121 BS
#86 Today Is A Great Day For Canada

It’s a new era. We will all get a lot of positive things accomplished these next years ahead.
…….

Can you left wing wackos just take responsibility that Canada is already under the rule of people like T2 and Notley. Since these misfits have come into power the CAD dollar and TSX have tanked, the deficits sky rocketed, unemployment increased and we are heading into an economic abyss in Canada with Alberta leading the way. Nothing good has happened yet under left wing rule and the only thing anyone can grasp to look forward to is legal weed. Of course legal weed will be 4 times as expensive as todays illegal weed.

Four years from now you and every other fool that voted in these misfits will be begging for a return of the Conservatives.
………..
You wish…but do not count on it!

#147 IHCTD9 on 12.15.15 at 11:19 pm

#114 TurnerNation on 12.15.15 at 8:38 pm
The only way to make money is in trading. Trade your labour for money. Trade financial instruments. Trade houses.

In school they teach you to trade your money and time for….education.

I’ve spent 50% of my life under control and education of State-paid agents (Unionistas and leftists) .
Letssee… JK to Grade 13 and 4 years undergrad + 2 years part time grad. WTF – lol @ education.
——-
Nothing wrong with a good education…

…unless you get out of school with 100k in debt.

#148 LL on 12.15.15 at 11:34 pm

#139 –

The plan works…
In Germany all refugees restarted, revived the economy.
It was on the news tonight.

#149 IHCTD9 on 12.15.15 at 11:38 pm

#140 Drill Baby Drill on 12.15.15 at 10:29 pm
#111 Train Insane in Calgary
You are right in your approach to depression. We will need the younger generation to fight. The fight will be required to fight the taxation tsunami that is about to hit us. High taxation means low employment for the young generation.
—————————–

The young vote left, they even figured out T2 was left of Mulcair, despite masquerading as a Liberal.

I believe they are going to have to learn the hard way.

Will they eventually choose to vote for what would have to be some pretty extreme fiscally conservative policies? How tough would things need to get?

Will they someday vote for program cuts, public service cuts, reduced spending, and austerity type policies in general?

These millennials seem to be wired to think that tough times call for more “stimulus” spending, more social programs, more taxes on the “rich” and corporations. Not to mention that billions spent on Environmental concerns is good no matter what is going on.

This is why I have to save for my own retirement, the younger generations will probably be, and stay; too broke to foot the bill.

#150 Gregor Samsa on 12.15.15 at 11:41 pm

#94 canuck wrote: How is it that people with so much money can ask such stupid questions?

Because it’s been well established that monetary success usually has little to do with intelligence. Usually it’s more about family inheritance, connections, and luck.

Luck is the big one: high school dropouts who ended up in Alberta at the right time found themselves making 6 figures. Talk to some senior managers in any public sector dept. and you will be usually be vastly underwhelmed, despite their huge salaries.

#151 Frank on 12.15.15 at 11:47 pm

and my friend is a realtor..
He hasn’t noticed too much slow down

He’s a liar or an idiot, sales numbers are down across the province 20% plus.

if there are willing sellers

There are tonnes, listings are up and inventory is at a multi-year high

a lot of buyers with cash and credit are at the side line waiting…

No there isn’t. The province has lost 60,000 jobs so the number of credit-worthy people has dropped. Cash buyers that are jumping now are stupid. Prices are dropping, you don’t catch falling knives.

#152 TRT on 12.16.15 at 12:04 am

Rates going up tomorrow.

But, Yellens language will have a dovish tone.

Next: when’s the second hike? Time interval between hikes is the trillion dollar question.

#153 whitehorn on 12.16.15 at 12:04 am

#111 Train Insane in Calgary on 12.15.15 at 8:34 pm
There really isnt an answer because Calgary is expensive. Rents are the same as mortgages. It is sad because people with no job security are forced to take enormous risk with a mortgage or pay someone else to live in their place. That defines Calgary for those post 2005.
—————————————————————–
Agree, lots has happened in AB over the last 15 years, and in some ways real estate values have risen too quickly to fast.
1. An average bungalow house has tripled 3 fold in Edm/Cal.
2. The cost of living has at least doubled. Check out your mechanic hourly rate to fix car.
3. The Harpers plan of 0 down and 40 year mortgages in 2005ish in my opinion will be one of their worst decisions in Canada in the coming years. It threw massive amounts on fuel on an economy in 2005 that was probably at its strongest in 15-20 years, thus helping create the bubble in housing today.
4. People that lost good paying jobs some say upwards of 100k in AB, will have trouble making payments on houses, which I expect will be showing up in 2016. The EI at the max rate won’t cut it.
5. Unfortunately, other segments of the economy i.e. Stock Market are suffering upwards of negative 15 percent this year, and “tough” making money on investments or retirement savings.
6. I believe the downturn in the market 2015 will be a copy cat of 2001/02 when markets were down considerably. I expect 2016 to be the same as 2015, with 2017 probably showing a good return.
7. Job losses, will create a lot of stress in the economy, causing people to be extremely tight with their money. This will effect consumer sales, putting more restraint on the economy.
8. Canada will survive going forward, but there will be lots of casualties in the process. It is typical constraint and boom that cycles over time.
9. Garth will be right were going to be under severe stress in real estate across the country.
10. People that hold off buying houses will be able to buy them considerably cheaper in the coming years.

#154 Frank on 12.16.15 at 12:14 am

$2m by 40 is mildly challenging as a wage slave but entirely doable

Don’t be a jerk the average and median incomes clearly show that very few people are in a position to achieve that even with disciplined investing.

#155 45north on 12.16.15 at 12:24 am

IHCTD9: If Bill sticks to his guns and does not reduce spending, makes no cuts, while continually making policy that reduces government revenue, he’s going to have some serious problems with “open and honest”

Government revenue is going to absolutely tank in 2016 short of an act of divine intervention.

Bill started out with the promise of deficit spending. Unfortunately for him, Canada’s issuing of bonds is not a secret neither is the interest. A lot of Liberal supporters are in the Civil Service. Bill doesn’t want to cut the Civil Service or the CBC but he’s going to have to cut somewhere.

My neighbours voted Liberal ( Ottawa South ) but there’s a level of pain which they won’t tolerate. I mean they’ll tolerate it but they won’t like it.

#156 For those about to flop... on 12.16.15 at 12:28 am

Re; my previous post.
O.k so after doing some more research on the cra website I think I will get a t5 slip just like I get for my interest.
I’m sure if I ever go back to Australia I will be in for a shock,but the Canadian tax code seems overly complicated.

#157 Squish on 12.16.15 at 1:01 am

#36 Mark at 5:59 pm

“In terms of ‘break-even’, I’m not sure that anyone is actually going out to buy a housing unit simply to rent it on such a site. However, such sites do enable (semi-retired) homeowners to, at least in the short term, keep up with their housing related expenses.”

——–

You are wrong, and demonstrably so. This is a widespread issue from San Francisco to Vancouver and around the world – properties that would normally be long term rentals or homes for locals are being purchased specifically to rent out short term on airbnb (frequently in contravention of local bylaws), driving up rent rates and contributing to a housing crunch in many places. Articles on the topic have been posted here in the comments in the recent past, but you can look up issues that the strata corps in big condo towers in Vancouver and Toronto are experiencing with trying to crack down on illegal airbnb properties, or read up on San Francisco’s fight with airbnb. Here in Squamish, where housing prices (selling and renting) are inexplicably at North Van levels now, pretty much, on my small street of about 25 homes there are at least four detached houses that have been purchased in the last couple years for 500k to 850k specifically for their owners to rent out on airbnb.

If you view a property on airbnb, you can see the “profile” of the person renting out the property. I can look up the house just down from me and see it’s owned by a couple who live in Vancouver. The profile says they have 3 airbnb properties in Vancouver and Squamish, and one in Arizona. It’s not uncommon for people to have multiple properties listed for rent on the site, even though that’s supposedly against airbnb rules.

I actually think tighter regulation and enforcement of bylaws around airbnb could be a big deal in the deflation of housing prices around here. I know one person locally who tried to take out a HELOC on his house to put a downpayment on another property, and was denied because the lender found his house on airbnb. There’s an article in the Whistler Pique about bylaw planning to shut down Pemberton airbnbs. People throw around the “I can always rent it out on airbnb” line when justifying paying astronomical prices for real estate – I hear it frequently – or they buy a condo for themselves and one to rent on the site. Airbnb is a wild card in real estate right now.

#158 Kinkalgary on 12.16.15 at 1:07 am

People in this city are dillusional, prices have not come down that much, wifey works high end retail store and last month sales were higher 22% from a yr ago, I told her that’s about as much as personal debt has increased as well..in the construction industry and things are down, phone hardly rings, spoke to a manager at a windshield shop today and he said appts were getting cancelled daily and he has seen customers use 2 or 3 credit cards to pay a $60 invoice. Gonna get uglier with more layoffs coming!

#159 BC Guy on 12.16.15 at 1:14 am

“US billionaire who owns 200,000 hectare ranch in British Columbia” lays trespassing charges against local fishermen.

Mr. Trudeau, keep increasing the land tax on this SOB until he sells!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/corbett-lake-trespassing-charges-1.3366850

One American controls 200,000 hectares of Canadian land, while millions of Canadians can’t afford to buy anything. Where is the moral outrage? Where is social justice? Where are the pitch-forks?

And this guy didn’t even earn it. He just married into it.

#160 macroman on 12.16.15 at 1:25 am

Garth if Yellen doesn’t raise tomorrow, the stawk market (hah, I wrote market), will orbit the moon Zimbabwe style.

Hyperinflation is at first a deflationary event.

I’m going with a one and done scenario but you won’t be able to color me surprised if she folds again.

#161 Vanecdotal on 12.16.15 at 2:11 am

#24 Smartalox

Agree, also been wondering about impact on rental stock for locals. That air bnb map of Van City is a CRA auditor’s dream come true. “X” marks the spotz.

Couple months ago there was a mls listing for typical Dunbar character sfh boldy exclaiming the house made “$10k/mo in air bnb income”. Taken with big grain of salt, but surely present and future owners *cough* declare all income produced by the rentals… Lol. Meanwhile local workers face quality affordable rental squeeze until GovCo catches up.

#162 Vanecdotal on 12.16.15 at 2:50 am

#62 For those about to flop

+1
Feel the same, well put. The Crusty Clark decade has not been good for BC’s long term sustainability fo’ sho. Good luck with your surgery and good health to you.

#163 Debt what debt on 12.16.15 at 4:23 am

640k in RE debt in Alberta, 300% of income, could be worse, could be in the oil field.

#164 liquidincalgary on 12.16.15 at 4:37 am

You drive to the landing pad. What’s the problem? — Garth

================================================

John Travolta doesn’t drive to his jet runway

http://www.businessinsider.com/john-travoltas-house-is-airport-with-runways-for-planes-2014-9

#165 M on 12.16.15 at 4:53 am

once US rates increase Wednesday afternoon (current odds 100%).

….ohhhh… hush child for you do not know what you say…

#166 Tim Bottle on 12.16.15 at 5:35 am

“U.S. interest rate hike will be tough medicine for indebted Canada
America has had its housing market ‘correction,’ ours is yet to come”

As a result, “There is way more risk in the Canadian economy than most people understand,” says Garth Turner, a former MP and housing expert who writes the wryly-titled blog The Greater Fool. “And most of that risk is in housing.”

“The greater fool” is a maxim in the housing industry; it is the assumption that even if the price you pay for your home is foolish, a greater fool will some day pay more.

“Turner is a Cassandra”. Classic
A common version of her story is that Apollo gave her the power of prophecy in order to seduce her, but when she refused, he spat into her mouth cursing her never to be believed.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/fed-interest-rate-household-debt-neil-macdonald-1.3366890

#167 earthboundmisfit on 12.16.15 at 5:44 am

No small degree of schadenfreude in seeing realtors take it up the wazoo.

#168 Hope & Change (Canada) on 12.16.15 at 6:53 am

#140 Drill Baby Drill on 12.15.15 at 10:29 pm
#111 Train Insane in Calgary
You are right in your approach to depression. We will need the younger generation to fight. The fight will be required to fight the taxation tsunami that is about to hit us. High taxation means low employment for the young generation.

The ‘younger generation’ are the ones electing these tax, spend, unlimited deficits, punish anyone making more than x$, 70s style politicians.

I take it that the Liberals think a 50%+ combined tax rate implies Canada is a low tax jurisdiction and the 1%ers are not paying their ‘fair’ share. Even though, Canada is so poor, compared to the US, that barely anyone makes 200K to begin with.

I blame Facebook. Since nothing on FB happened before 2005, there’s no way for these young voters to know that we’ve already tried these failed policies.

#169 IHCTD9 on 12.16.15 at 7:40 am

#159 BC Guy on 12.16.15 at 1:14 am

Where is the moral outrage? Where is social justice? Where are the pitch-forks?
____________________________________________

Where are the men in white suits that are coming to take you away?

I hear official KOCH Bros. punching bags are on sale this week. Maybe you should pick one up.

#170 fancy_pants on 12.16.15 at 8:11 am

Buckle up. 2008 was the warm up. A much larger economic ‘situation’ is heading our way. The light at the end of the tunnel being touted by US media and officials as recovery is actually an oncoming train. It’s all smoke and mirrors. Be prepared for more QE and bailouts.

the problem is more government. We need less government but that’s not how they stay in power. They promise something for nothing … they promise that government is the solution for your problems, when it is really the cause of your problems.

2008? Get over it. Gone. — Garth

#171 CJBob on 12.16.15 at 8:37 am

I’m looking at putting $10,000 into VSB Vanguard Canadian Short-Term Bond Index ETF today as part of the ‘safe’ portion of my portfolio. I understand the risk of rates rising, but this portion will be invested for 15+ years. Other suggestions?

#172 Karma on 12.16.15 at 8:43 am

Did anyone ever hear about this story?

“The Pigeon King and the Ponzi Scheme that Shook Canada”

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/05/magazine/the-pigeon-king-and-the-ponzi-scheme-that-shook-canada.html?_r=0

#173 Karma on 12.16.15 at 8:48 am

As they say, Garth: “Any press is good press”.

You’re quoted by the lefty Neil MacDonald. And he called you a “Cassandra”. That’s a term most, if not all, millennials won’t understand.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/fed-interest-rate-household-debt-neil-macdonald-1.3366890

#174 Smoking Man on 12.16.15 at 8:53 am

Love the smell of Money in The Morning !!!!!

USDCAD, locked loaded since June, and waiting for 2pm Lift off. Hell I’m already in Orbit.

Come on moon…

Hey Gloomer Doomer, bet your happy you didn’t take my bet.

He took mine. — Garth

#175 Smoking Man on 12.16.15 at 8:56 am

He took mine. — Garth

Nice

#176 gut check on 12.16.15 at 9:17 am

@ #150 Gregor Samsa on 12.15.15 at 11:41 pm

Talk to some senior managers in any public sector dept. and you will be usually be vastly underwhelmed, despite their huge salaries.
**************************************

understatement of the year :)

#177 Daisy Mae on 12.16.15 at 9:18 am

CBC: “Morneau, being a politician, strictly avoids talking about a real estate bubble in Canadian cities.

To name it a bubble, after all, can make it real in the public mind, which in turn can burst it.

The U.S. housing market shed trillions in value after the crash in 2008 — up to 60 per cent in some cities — before coming back to more realistic levels, Canada sailed on, congratulating itself, while its housing prices just kept rising.

As a result, “There is way more risk in the Canadian economy than most people understand,” says Garth Turner, a former MP and housing expert who writes the wryly-titled blog The Greater Fool. “And most of that risk is in housing.”

“The greater fool” is a maxim in the housing industry; it is the assumption that even if the price you pay for your home is foolish, a greater fool will some day pay more.

Americans followed that guideline from the Second World War onward, and it worked just fine, until suddenly, in 2008, it didn’t.

Turner, it might be noted, is a Cassandra. He’s been warning of undue risk, especially in cities like Vancouver and Toronto, for years.

“A generation of people have bought houses they cannot afford,” he says. He doesn’t like to talk about or define bubbles, but he uses language no finance minister would use: “People should just use their goddamn common sense.”

Well. That’s a wonderful idea, but common sense is almost always overcome by greed, until it crashes on the rocks of panic.”

#178 When will they raise rates? on 12.16.15 at 9:20 am

2pm…

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zVf-rehP4b8

#179 Daisy Mae on 12.16.15 at 9:20 am

The link:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/fed-interest-rate-household-debt-neil-macdonald-1.3366890?cmp=rss&cid=news-digests-canada-and-world-morning

#180 Bottoms_Up on 12.16.15 at 9:30 am

#159 BC Guy on 12.16.15 at 1:14 am
———————————–
Indeed all lakes in Canada should be ‘public’. Imagine if the owners of this lake decided to sell all the water to China….what would Canadians say then?

#181 Karma on 12.16.15 at 9:46 am

Garth, any thoughts on this NHA MBS change?

http://www.integratedmortgageplanners.com/blog/monday-morning-rate-update/what-last-weeks-changes-to-our-mortgage-rules-mean-for-you-monday-morning-interest-rate-update-december-14-2015/

#182 saskatoon on 12.16.15 at 9:47 am

#143 Smoking Man

essentially, it is…

pathological altruism.

liberals get a “high” (that they keep chasing) regardless of reality, consequences.

if it makes them feel “good” initially…that’s all that matters.

whether the cause is actually just, or the needy get actual help matters not.

it is the dominant psychological illness our time–as demonstrated by many posters on this blog.

#183 fancy_pants on 12.16.15 at 10:05 am

I hope for your sake you are right this time. Doesn’t it scare you that those behind the wheel are afraid of raising rates even a quarter percent? 7 years and counting. Lets officially ring in the new ZIRP environment with champagne and party favors when it hits 10 years. sound reasonable? you bring the amazon girls, I’ll bring the favors. all blog dogs invited. we can smoke legal weed and drink some bubbly. that should take the edge off a decade of denial.

#184 Leo Trollstoy on 12.16.15 at 10:31 am

Love the smell of Money in The Morning !!!!!

USDCAD, locked loaded since June, and waiting for 2pm Lift off. Hell I’m already in Orbit.

Looking forward to it!

Go SM!

#185 Ole Doberman on 12.16.15 at 10:39 am

My bold prediction today is if the Fed announces a rate hike equity markets get a boost.

Bonds will sell off and capital will flow from public to private assets. Stocks and gold will be the new safe haven.

JMHO

Any thoughts?

#186 Smoking Man on 12.16.15 at 10:39 am

What is truly sad, been trying to shake up these Liberals show them how it’s done.

How easy it is to make a few million here and there, requires balls, knowledge, and discerning bull shit from reality.

And they make fun of me because I don’t fit the model of success they where taught.

I fighting 20 years of schooling and programming set to make them lose everytime.

I give up

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

and it aint even 2pm yet.

#187 Godth on 12.16.15 at 10:44 am

#142 Fuzzy Camel on 12.15.15 at 10:49 pm

Let the good times roll and have a neo-con new year! It’s the end of history and I feel fine.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/12/15/putin-gives-kerry-a-chance-to-pull-back-from-the-brink/

http://sputniknews.com/columnists/20151215/1031786484/russia-ready-war.html

just kidding…
http://news.yahoo.com/kerry-moscow-talks-syria-ukraine-081842398.html

So more world peace and a merry Christmas. I’m going shopping.

#188 IHCTD9 on 12.16.15 at 10:46 am

#174 Smoking Man on 12.16.15 at 8:53 am
Love the smell of Money in The Morning !!!!!

USDCAD, locked loaded since June, and waiting for 2pm Lift off. Hell I’m already in Orbit.
__________________________________________

Can you make month long plays like that in the Forex market? Assuming you are levered up – do you get dinged with having to pay interest on the margin?
How much do they ding you for that?

#189 Smoking Man on 12.16.15 at 10:58 am

“No sympathy for the devil; keep that in mind. Buy the ticket, take the ride…and if it occasionally gets a little heavier than what you had in mind, well…maybe chalk it off to forced conscious expansion: Tune in, freak out, get beaten.”

and then

Then there are Days like this.

WOOOOOO
HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
WEEEEEEEEEEEE

#190 Musty Basement Dweller on 12.16.15 at 11:04 am

This CBC article quoting our fearless leader is a good one. http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/fed-interest-rate-household-debt-neil-macdonald-1.3366890
It sounds different when someone else says the same things again.
But what is a Cassandra? Wikipedia didn’t help me much.
Different note, great to see the finance minister raising down payments a bit. Bit it’s surely a horse gone, closing the barn door thing.

#191 Sean on 12.16.15 at 11:18 am

Can we get a little history lesson Garth? When I was a high school kid in the early 2000s the dollar was in the low 60s. I didn’t follow markets then so I’m not sure what was going on.
What were some of the similarities and differences to where we find ourselves now in relation to the dollar?

#192 tkid on 12.16.15 at 11:22 am

@190, Cassandra is an oracle no one will listen to or believe. She was cursed to be accurate but never listened to because she wouldn’t let Apollo into her pants.

#193 Steerage bilge on 12.16.15 at 11:27 am

Smokey, how much you lose on oil going down down.

#194 Frank on 12.16.15 at 11:38 am

CBC article by Neil MacDonald: http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/fed-interest-rate-household-debt-neil-macdonald-1.3366890

He even quotes the name of this blog The ‘greater fool’ directly. Secret fan?

#195 Trading Naked on 12.16.15 at 11:43 am

#144 For those about to flop… on 12.15.15 at 11:00 pm

When it comes to tax time, you report those dividends however the T3 slip tells you report them. It’ll break down for you which dividends are Canadian and which ones are foreign. And then when you calculate the foreign income tax credit, write “Other” when they ask you which country it’s from. “Other” means “this foreign income came from a managed mutual fund, so damned if I know which country it’s from.”

#196 Smoking Man on 12.16.15 at 11:43 am

#193 Steerage bilge on 12.16.15 at 11:27 am
Smokey, how much you lose on oil going down down.

about 375k but got out of that trade as soon as I new Kerry was going to make nice with Putin, then added 300 contracts USDCAD over the last few days which ate that.

Now just enjoying the ride… Drinking early.. Probably see a few deletes after 2pm :)

#197 Smoking Man on 12.16.15 at 11:50 am

#188 IHCTD9 on 12.16.15 at 10:46 am
#174 Smoking Man on 12.16.15 at 8:53 am
Love the smell of Money in The Morning !!!!!

USDCAD, locked loaded since June, and waiting for 2pm Lift off. Hell I’m already in Orbit.
__________________________________________

Can you make month long plays like that in the Forex market? Assuming you are levered up – do you get dinged with having to pay interest on the margin?
How much do they ding you for that?
………..

Of course you get dinged, it’s minuscule, don’t even pay attention.

#198 triplenet on 12.16.15 at 11:54 am

#36 Mark
Any analysis of AirBnB must begin with ‘does it contravene the applicable zoning by-law’?
The answer 99% of the time is yes, meaning illegal.
Therefore your response is moot.

#199 bdy sktrn on 12.16.15 at 11:55 am

he bc guy, 60k for all the land you could ever use. real cheap.
what’cha waiting for?
————————————-
LOT B 24 HIGHWAY, Lone Butte, British Columbia V0K1X0

$60,000
Listing ID: N245220

Land Size
11.39 ac

#200 oil goes sh!t on 12.16.15 at 12:06 pm

Increased interest rates will drive out of business Canadian oil investors, who loaded up on cheap credit, with 5% down, thinking that the price can only go up, even though the largest competitors can produce the good at a cost, they can never match..

Wait, this story sounds familiar… what were they thinking, like delusional millennials?

#201 by-law on 12.16.15 at 12:11 pm

#198 triplenet on 12.16.15 at 11:54 am

#36 Mark
Any analysis of AirBnB must begin with ‘does it contravene the applicable zoning by-law’?
The answer 99% of the time is yes, meaning illegal.
Therefore your response is moot.

You are old school, anti-entepreneur..

No by-law can prevent renting out my dig occsionally… just like no by-law will stop Uber.

God less the free market economy, frikin commies…

#202 Incohernet Ramblings on 12.16.15 at 12:25 pm

#189 Smoking Man on 12.16.15 at 10:58 am

“No sympathy for the devil; keep that in mind. Buy the ticket, take the ride…and if it occasionally gets a little heavier than what you had in mind, well…maybe chalk it off to forced conscious expansion: Tune in, freak out, get beaten.”

and then

Then there are Days like this.

WOOOOOO
HOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
WEEEEEEEEEEEE
””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””
Mr. Smoking Man, what you’ve just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

#203 pwn3d on 12.16.15 at 12:37 pm

#319 You’re Nuts on 12.15.15 at 4:54 pm
#284 pwn3d on 12.15.15 at 2:20 pm

So are you suggesting that climate change was a myth fabricated to divert the wealth of the public into green energy? And that is a more plausible theory than the Kock brothers and the oil lobby funding studies to deny climate change?
———————
Climate change is not a myth, the climate is constantly changing over long enough periods of time. As we all learned in school, giant glaciers carved up most of canada, as little as 17,000 years ago.

Also not a myth, there is more CO2 in the air today than there was 50 years ago. Also, the earth is slightly warmer over the last 100 years. Also, the last 20 has shown no increase.

What is a myth? Things like “the science is settled”. IPCC models have accurately predicted the global temperature – myth.

Let me put it to you this way. China is building a new coal fired power plant every other day. If the scientists and politicians honestly believe that we are about to go past some point of no turning back and the oceans are going to increase by feet every year and all the ice will be gone in a few years ect. ect. why would they sign treaties like in Kyoto or Paris that have no way to meet supposed temperature reduction goals or even penalties for high emitters? In fact, why would we not be getting ready for war with China?

Does it not bother you that every time a study does not show warming it gets explained away by either “correcting” the data so it shows something else, or it gets explained away by some other phenomenon not related to CO2?

#204 Musty Basement Dweller on 12.16.15 at 12:48 pm

Ah thanks tkid for your concise explanation of Cassandra . Makes sense.

#205 SWL1976 on 12.16.15 at 12:50 pm

#142 Fuzzy Camel – Sadly I don’t think you are too far off.

Who’s really crazy though…

The one’s who see it?

The one’s who are planning it?

Or

The one’s who are oblivious to it?

#206 Steerage Bilge on 12.16.15 at 1:04 pm

#196 Smoking Man on 12.16.15 at 11:43 am

#193 Steerage bilge on 12.16.15 at 11:27 am
Smokey, how much you lose on oil going down down.

about 375k but got out of that trade as soon as I new Kerry was going to make nice with Putin, then added 300 contracts USDCAD over the last few days which ate that.

Now just enjoying the ride… Drinking early.. Probably see a few deletes after 2pm :)
——–
Ah I see. Have fun! Will look forward to the barrage of triumphant DELETEs

It seems so obvious that CAD is going down….I have done well just swapping a bunch to usd a while back.. but no idea what this contract stuff that you do.. It must leverage down the opposite way as well!!

I guess there are a lot of “Mark the financial wizard’s” out there who bet the opposite for you to hoover up their $$

#207 gladiator on 12.16.15 at 1:12 pm

OMG, people, please don’t confuse schooling with education. Schooling has a dogmatic approach – everything you are told you have to accept as truth (that’s what “dogmatic” means).
Now, given that the kids nowadays are under pressure to accept things like “save the Earth”, “accept gender-confused peers as they are”, etc., today’s schooling turns into some weird type of dogmatic indoctrination with a touch of grammar and math, of course – to keep the parent’s vigilance asleep.
I am horrified how much focus they put on stuff that has nothing to do with reading and math – things we send our kids to school for.
Home-schooling is the best approach by far to preserve the kids’ minds from getting so much garbage pounded into them. Too bad I have no option to do this…

#208 IHCTD9 on 12.16.15 at 1:22 pm

#197 Smoking Man on 12.16.15 at 11:50 am
#188 IHCTD9 on 12.16.15 at 10:46 am
#174 Smoking Man on 12.16.15 at 8:53 am
Love the smell of Money in The Morning !!!!!

USDCAD, locked loaded since June, and waiting for 2pm Lift off. Hell I’m already in Orbit.
__________________________________________

Can you make month long plays like that in the Forex market? Assuming you are levered up – do you get dinged with having to pay interest on the margin?
How much do they ding you for that?
………..

Of course you get dinged, it’s minuscule, don’t even pay attention.
__________________________________

Thanks. I’m really just starting to learn about Forex Trading, been doing a bit of reading on it. I was not sure how the interest charges would add up if you are levered up 100:1 and held on to the position for months.

I did watch a former co worker blow his account to smithereens in no time trying to “day trade” it LOL!

#209 Rexx Rock on 12.16.15 at 1:28 pm

We may witness a miracle today when Yellan raises rates today.Our financial terrorist Poloz may lower rates.One guy even on BNN said thanks to Poloz he’s making Canadians poorer.Emerging markets are going to have a hard time paying back debt in U.S. dollars.Good times coming for shorting.I hope some of you cashed in my picks UVXY and TVIX in the last couple of weeks.They were awesome because of the beautiful volatility.Keep a eye on them because one day you will be blown away when we have nice correction!!!!

Did you not say rates could never increase? — Garth

#210 EB on 12.16.15 at 1:30 pm

#207 gladiator – because people believe what they’re told in grade 4 for the remainder of their lives?

I’m more concerned with political indoctrination in the schools on a meta level (it always existed in some form or other after all).

Students today are taught to be extremists. Reasoned debate and disagreement aren’t possible when your position is a moral absolute, and anyone who doesn’t toe the line isn’t merely wrong – they’re evil.

That’s a scary frame of mind to encourage in an entire generation.

#211 Bram on 12.16.15 at 1:41 pm


Did you not say rates could never increase? — Garth

Did you not say that BoC rate would follow up, and not go down? Do you still think it will follow FED?

Yes, in time. Later in 2016. — Garth

#212 Bottoms_Up on 12.16.15 at 1:55 pm

#203 pwn3d on 12.16.15 at 12:37 pm
————————————————–
The carbon dumping into the atmosphere, and the global surface temperature warming, are clear facts.

If the warming chart was instead a chart of a stock, one would say it’s in the ‘consolidation’ phase. A few years of “non-warming” doesn’t mean warming is not occurring.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/

And, ‘slight’ warming is no way to describe a surface temperature rise of 0.86 oC. This is a MASSIVE increase.

and ps. China is actually worried about global warming because Asia will feel the brunt of the changes, and Shanghai will be underwater in 2100.

Thank goodness too, because without them on board, the world is cooked (pun intended).

#213 noel on 12.16.15 at 1:56 pm

Neil McDonald called you a Cassandra Garth, are you going to stand for that?!

#214 JSS on 12.16.15 at 1:56 pm

5…4…3…2…1…

#215 (formerly known as) When will they raise rates? on 12.16.15 at 2:00 pm

LIFTOFF!!!

#216 Marcus on 12.16.15 at 2:01 pm

Up 1/4%

#217 pwn3d on 12.16.15 at 2:01 pm

.25 hike

#218 Smoking Man on 12.16.15 at 2:01 pm

BOOM $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

#219 (formerly known as) When will they raise rates? on 12.16.15 at 2:08 pm

Tick Tock for Canadian RE…

http://rockstarfinance.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/hell-yeah-kid-262×300.jpg

#220 Randy Randerson on 12.16.15 at 2:08 pm

Looks like Smoking Man is a newly minted billionaire. I don’t know forex, so use DLR as a proxy, sweet!

#221 Smoking Man on 12.16.15 at 2:16 pm

#220 Randy Randerson on 12.16.15 at 2:08 pm
Looks like Smoking Man is a newly minted billionaire. I don’t know forex, so use DLR as a proxy, sweet!
…..

I wish, too many bad habits. screw it.

Seneca !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#222 The real Kip on 12.16.15 at 2:21 pm

Oh boy, Garth is gonna have some swagger tonight!

#223 pwn3d on 12.16.15 at 2:49 pm

#212 Bottoms_Up on 12.16.15 at 1:55 pm
#203 pwn3d on 12.16.15 at 12:37 pm
————————————————–
The carbon dumping into the atmosphere, and the global surface temperature warming, are clear facts.

If the warming chart was instead a chart of a stock, one would say it’s in the ‘consolidation’ phase. A few years of “non-warming” doesn’t mean warming is not occurring.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/

And, ‘slight’ warming is no way to describe a surface temperature rise of 0.86 oC. This is a MASSIVE increase.

and ps. China is actually worried about global warming because Asia will feel the brunt of the changes, and Shanghai will be underwater in 2100.

Thank goodness too, because without them on board, the world is cooked (pun intended).
—————————–
consolidation is not a scientific term. none of the models predicted it, thus the models are wrong. many of the other predictions have also been proven to be wrong, like the sea level rising by feet, arctic ice disappearing forever, “hockey stick” temperature gains and the disappearance of the medieval warm period and little ice age, rise in devastating storms like tornados and hurricanes… ect, ect.

I can accept that that the Earth’s climate can change, and that the levels of CO2 in the atmosphere can change, and that the rise in CO2 in the last 100 years is almost completely related to humans. What I don’t accept is that CO2 is a thermostat and controls the Earth’s temperature completely, it only has an effect. Which would probably include me in the so called 97% but I reject the idea that overpaying for energy, taxing carbon, and wealth transfer is going to “save” us. If what the alarmists are saying is true, the only thing we can do to save the planet is physically prevent China from further expansion.

#224 jess on 12.16.15 at 3:02 pm

Merkel calls multiculturalism a ‘lie.’ tells newcomers to ‘obey our values’ -integration
———————————–

New website shows European countries that facilitate tax cheating
Today, the Centre for Research on Multinational Corporations (SOMO) launches a new interactive website that visualises bilateral investments of European countries. A new comparison between UNCTAD and IMF data illustrates the scale of tax avoidance through mailbox companies and selected tax havens.

Which country is the biggest investor worldwide, the US or the Netherlands? How big is the percentage of mailbox company-related investments in Greece or the US? If mailboxes are an indication of tax dodging, which countries pay the bill? This website provides you with the answers in the form of interactive maps and allows you to download the underlying data.

Mapping Tax-free investments
New interactive website shows which European countries facilitate tax dodging through mailbox companies
Dec 15, 2015
http://www.somo.nl/news-en/mapping-tax-free-investments
http://read.somo.nl/story/tax-free-profits/
=======================

Central public register may be inevitable
Cayman News | 14/12/2015
https://cnsbusiness.com/2015/12/14/central-public-register-may-be-inevitable/

#225 jess on 12.16.15 at 3:17 pm

“Students today are taught to be extremists. ”
============================
Do you think slavery is an inspiration (teacher) ?
http://www.ilo.org/ipec/facts/lang–en/index.htm

“The world’s 36 million slaves. To many Americans, slavery might seem like a problem from the distant past. However, it is very much a present reality, as a new report shows. Nearly 36 million people in 167 surveyed countries live in modern slavery.”

http://www.marieclaire.com/politics/news/a3618/diary-escaped-sex-slave/

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/shrimp-and-slavery-linked-1.3365997

#226 Doug in London on 12.16.15 at 4:23 pm

@Lorne, post #146:
Nothing good has happened yet under left wing rule.
————————————————————-
It depends on how you define left wing rule. Do you call the Liberals left wing rule? Let’s examine their track record. In the 1980s and early 1990s when we had a Conservative government with Prime Minister Brian Mulroney, there were deficits and the national debt climbed to a dangerously high level. If not tackled, it would have got out of control. Luckily, in 1993 the Liberals got in first with Prime Minister Jean Chretien, followed by Paul Martin and guess what? The deficits turned to surpluses and the debt actually dropped! That continued until the Conservatives got in 9 years ago with Prime Minister Stephen Harper and we were running deficits again. Oh sure, they tried to hide it with some creative accounting. Probably their accountants came from Nortel or Enron. The lefties don’t have a monopoly on bad fiscal management.

#227 JamesA on 12.16.15 at 8:45 pm

The next phase begins. Tough times ahead.

On a different topic. If you go to google finance, or whatever, and chart the S&P 500 for all known time, you see the familiar saw tooth pattern. Up up it goes, then correction. I see three big spikes/teeth (99ish, 07 ish and now). I know it’s not scientific, but, the current tooth looks huge and is ballpark the same time span. Isn’t there a natural business cycle being shown here? Aren’t we “due” for a correction/steam release?

The only things I can think of are: the States is the least insane market going and people need to invest somewhere. And two, maybe now that the majority of trades are computer to computer, and the code is not programmed to see that large scale trend (seems like they would though), that it will continue going up for a while yet.

Man that chart is scary looking though.