Friday morning the poor guy nailed to be our new finance minister increased real estate down payments, as pathetically predicted here on Thursday. Here is what you need to know, and below are the likely consequences…
Buyers of houses selling (not listed) for $500 or less will require a 5% down. A house selling for $600,000 will need 5.8% ($35,000 plus CMHC fees), while one selling for $700,000 needs 6.4% ($45,000 + fees). For an $800,000 sale the required amount is $55,000 + fees (6.9%), which rises to $65,000, or 7.2% for a home going for $900,000 or less. At just under $1 million the minimum down is $75,000 plus fees, or 7.5%, and above seven figures it jumps all the way to 20%, since CMHC insurance is no longer available.
So, as this blog reported, it’s a graduated approach. The first half-million in house requires 5%, and between that and a million the down is calculated at a 10% rate. As before, all purchases with less than 20% down must be insured for the benefit of the lender, with the buyer footing the bill.
Is this a big deal?
Yeah, it is. And credit where credit is due. The T2 gang just did something that eight turgid years of Con rule never delivered. In fact by bringing in 0% down payments with 40-year amortizations a decade ago, the Harperites adopted a US-style, laissez-faire approach to housing that prepared the ground for our bitter harvest today. Now average families can no longer afford average houses in several major cities, household debt has exploded as people try to keep up, and the whole wavering mess is prone to collapse. We own more valuable real estate, but at the same time are more vulnerable. Hard to see a win there.
And while mighty little F tried to repair the damage he created with mortgage restrictions, he could never fight the current of cheap rates and inbred house lust. Higher down payments were an obvious tool to accomplish this, but one I know Stephen Harper personally squished – believing house porn was keeping the economy chugging.
Well, here we are. The first concrete step to a more rational approach. The idea behind this is ground-breaking – that people without money shouldn’t be buying houses. Who knew?
The change becomes effective the middle of February, which means more moist virgins rushing to ‘beat the increase’ between now and then, buying into an inflated market which seems more doomed than ever. It is aimed primarily at YVR and the GTA, where 33% and 40% of sales (respectively) are between the $500,000 and $1 million marks. Across the entire country, it’s less than 20%, which led the finance minister to say (strangely) that is new rules will really only eliminate 1% of buyers, but still cool markets.
As a Royal LePage broker in Toronto told his agents moments after the news broke: “While it is hard to say how much of an effect this will have on what some are already predicting to be a continued hot market in 2016, one thing is for sure, now is the time to purchase if all you have is 5%. “If you have any clients that are sitting on the fence, this would be a great piece of information to share with them that could get them a little more serious on purchasing now.”
CIBC economist Benny Tal says this could affect about 5,000 sales in Toronto and maybe a thousand in Vancouver – but up to 10% of all deals in poor Calgary. Of course with real estate, it’s all about perception. If people think houses are hot (like the prime minister), they’ll flock to buy, sensing risk is negligible. If houses values start to fall the masses recoil, smelling fear and loss.
So, let’s put this consequential change in context.
Oil is now down to $35 a barrel, and has lost 42% of its value since the summer. That’s a disaster, currently unravelling housing market confidence in Calgary, Edmonton, Regina and Saskatoon. Anyone who does not think oil creep is hitting Ontario’s industrial base or real estate markets from Vancouver Island to the Rock simply is not paying attention. Meanwhile the Canadian dollar at 73 cents is on its way lower, putting serious handcuffs on the Bank of Canada, which wants to cut its rate again but in the knowledge this will further pluck the loonie. Eventually a currency collapse will force rates up.
Then we have the Fed. The odds Friday were 76% that the US central bank will begin tightening its monetary policy on Wednesday afternoon. This means inevitable spillover into the Canadian bond market, where fixed-rate mortgages are set. So home loans will be rising in cost, regardless of what our central bank might do.
Of course a 72-cent buck (or, soon, 70) is inflationary as it sends the cost of essentials like veggies and Harleys higher, making it a little tougher for people carrying big debt loads. And did I mention 36,000 lost jobs last month, a hike in the unemployment rate or the TSX losing 12% this year?
Does any of this sound positive for Canadian real estate, already sitting at the price apex?
Nonetheless, expect that winter buying snap as the ill-informed Twittersphere twits rush in before Valentine’s day – romantically and softly presaged here yesterday the Hot One and his fingers. Things might be worrisome, if they weren’t so funny.
365 comments ↓
what?!? it’s tomorrow already!
This was early for a posting…
First?
Love this blog. Canada is doomed!
House lust will never abate. Mme Shellacque is constantly on my case (we rent). I can win on logic, but logic never sways emotion. I suspect even if the market craters and she hears stories of people in terrible housing and financial situations for years to come, she’ll still tell me 20 years from now that she wanted to buy a house.
If the land transfer tax didn’t budge the Toronto markets, I’m not sure how 0.8% on 600k will.
Are they still doing cashback mortgages and other “5%, nudge, nudge” games?
You see Garth? This new government with T2 and his gang aren’t all bad.
Let the panic begin. If you can’t come up with the extra small percentage ($4800 on a $600K mortgage) you really should think long and hard if you can even afford to buy a home. Seriously, when interest rates rise, you will be SERIOUSLY HOOPED.
which led the finance minister to say (strangely) that is new rules will really only eliminate 1% of buyers, but still cool markets.-GT
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So eliminating 1% of buyers has a cooling effect.
But 3% of Vancouver market is foreign buyers yet you say this has basically no effect. Interesting.
It does not matter because interest rates are falling alot again.
Canada 5 year and 10 year bond is now 0.75%, 1.42% down from the peak of 1.02%, 1.78% just a few weeks ago.
Canada 30 year is now 2.17% down from 2.45% just a few weeks ago.
U.S yields are crashing too with 30, 10, 5 year at 2.89%, 2.15%, 1.59% down they go!!!!!!!!
All other U.S. and
As a Royal LePage broker in Toronto told his agents moments after the news broke: “While it is hard to say how much of an effect this will have on what some are already predicting to be a continued hot market in 2016, one thing is for sure, now is the time to purchase if all you have is 5%. “If you have any clients that are sitting on the fence, this would be a great piece of information to share with them that could get them a little more serious on purchasing now.”
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Reminds me of Saturday morning sales meetings at the dealership.
[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/12/11/this-should-be-fun/ […]
Good morning Garth. Did Bandit fart under your blankets early today?
Just got back from mexico to see the remaining inventory in my neighborhood sold out while i was gone, all at prices listed well above what they were during the summer. There is literally no inventory and prices are high.
i think these mortgage rules will only impact the condo market, sub 500K
HOLY S! Garth. You called it-
“Eventually a currency collapse will force rates up.”
Though- I suspect your idea of scale is different then mine. Mine is WAY bigger!:)
This seems prudent and good and likely to have little to no impact on the housing market.
Slowed down alot up at funcor…..good time to quite and go soak up some sun…..would love to come back to some cheaper real estate
DELETED
I would not be surprised to see a 5, 10 year 30 year Canada bond yield at 0.49%, 1.21%, 1.83% just like January-2015 during the Greece falre up.
Why the effort of making this scale progressive????
That makes no sense, they could use the same percentage across the board, e.g. 15%
Buying a 100K house?: you need to come up with 15K, or you should not buy.
Buying a 1M house?: you need to come up with 150K, or you should not buy.
Because we are talking down-payment as percentages of the price, there is no need for the progressive steps.
If I were finance minister, I would put it at 20% flat, and be done with it. Is it gonna hurt the market? Probably. Better a little hurt now, than 10 times the hurt later.
Tank it all! Gold’s up!
Anyone want to buy my house in Calgary? Great deal!
At least this will save the taxpayers some money if the CMHC goes bust much like what’s left of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Hopefully the minimum down payments will be increased again before the housing market implodes.
Good on the libs for making a small effort.
Personally, I would prefer a fully laissez-faire model. No interference. It is all the machinations that have disrupted a natural cycle and caused many of these problems.
As individuals, we should accept that there are times of plenty and times of suffering and plan to prepare for those times. Government involvement only seems to create other more gruesome problems later…
Well, it looks like Marneau is a lot smarter than his predecessor. Housing should be affordable and CMHC does exactly the opposite of its original intent. CMHC just bloats the banks putting one on every street corner while bankrupting citizens and business owners. No wonder the banks are over 20% of the entire Canadian stock market. Banks do little to improve the economy; instead, they can easily bankrupt our futures. Hopefully we can come back from this FIRE economy because it has an expiration date, and will be expiring sooner than later. It doesn’t look like oil or resources will solve this problem either. We used to be a hotbed of new technologies, but now our brightest tech firm is barely holding its head above water.
Loonie….
Burn baby burn. Most don’t realize it’s Canada that’s burning.
Snowbirds on fixed pensions are screwed.
Households that spend a lot with no money saved are screwed.
Retirees with Candian GICs and fat bank accounts just lost almost 40% of their money in last 3 years…and they don’t even know it.
Any currency trader here want to predict where the Loonie stops bleeding?
I’m going to say 66.6 cents.
Re: #13 YVR is still hot on 12.11.15 at 1:39 pm
It only affects housing above $500,000 not below that figure.
it’s a baby step in the right direction. kudos for that
The new PM has a big mess to clean up thanks to that disgusting sack of trash Harper. This is a very small but welcome step.
Great post today Garth, thank you.
You stated that people will be ‘rushing to beat the increase’, pumping up prices even more. How long before the downward pressure on prices due to stricter rules offsets those initial increases?
It seems to me that its almost a certainty that there will be an accelerated pace of buying and price increases before February, and afterwards the outlook is uncertain.
which led the finance minister to say (strangely) that is new rules will really only eliminate 1% of buyers, but still cool markets.-GT
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So eliminating 1% of buyers has a cooling effect.
But 3% of Vancouver market is foreign buyers yet you say this has basically no effect. Interesting.
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Not to mention that while 3% of Vancouver’s market may be foreign buyers, the 300K or however many newly passported Canadians coming to the cities each year are all buying properties using offshore money that is not sourced from local income. While these are not “foreigners'” they are sourcing foreign money, and sharply distorting affordability.
With only 47,000 SFDH in Vancouver, many are being bought and forever taken off the market…Think about it, 5X more newly passported Canadians are coming each year than Vancouver’s entire SFDH stock, many of whom see property as a legacy investment.
As lala says ” Blessed are Canadians with 2 citizenships”
Did you miss this?
http://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/Eng/fi-if/in-ai/Pages/cptreqmtg.aspx
Updating capital requirements for residential mortgages
OSFI is planning to update the regulatory capital requirements for loans secured by residential real estate properties (i.e. residential mortgages).Footnote 1 Risks in the Canadian mortgage market continue to evolve. Household debt continues to grow faster than income and housing prices in some markets continue to rise rapidly. The planned changes to the regulatory capital framework will ensure that capital requirements keep pace with those developments and reflect underlying risks.
Too bad will be applied in a year at best ;-(
Garth has been predicting a lower Canadian dollar for some time and I am glad I listened. I would like to understand why the American markets are reacting so negatively to falling oil prices. Shouldn’t lower energy costs be good for an industrial economy?
Make min 25% down on all RE purchase, otherwise this minuscule increase will do nothing more than have more idiots rushing to buy.
5% down is not enough.
Minimum should be 10% then raise it up from there.
They are probably starting with baby steps so the elephant deflates very slowly. Slower than a mouse fart.
#13 YVR is still hot on 12.11.15 at 1:39 pm
There is literally no inventory and prices are high.
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right now on mls for a 20 square block of the ‘best’ east van hoods – comm dr to rupert , N of broadway to hastings(maybe 7500 houses) there are 11 listings for sfh. 3 are on experssway (1st ave). leaving 9. 2 are 66′ or 50’lots for 2M+. leaving 7.
those 7 are within 1M to 2M.
west of nanaimo st is one 33′ teardown and 2 new 25′ houses , 1.3M each. all 3 are in a sketchy block or 2 from hastings compared to the rest of the area.
nothing else. zip. zero . not a single decent listing. can’t buy a house if you wanted to.
turnover time to sell under one week.
Thank you Jesus.
USDCAD my Oil Hedge Included
Added to my P & L since last Fridays close.
440K
You don’t want to know what I’m Up since end of Jun, when I Told every one of you dogs how to become a Millionaire.
Except for One dog, who I have been coaching…
He`s smiling today….
$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Garth, you find the best photographs!
Going to interesting to see who wins the bet…..
my bet is the 1.5 million dollar wires to CIBC daily….will not stop. But they are not coming from foreign buyers right? Because there are NO stats right?
#13 YVR is still hot on 12.11.15 at 1:39 pm
There is literally no inventory and prices are high.
———————-
right now on mls for a 20 square block of the ‘best’ east van hoods – comm dr to rupert , N of broadway to hastings(maybe 7500 houses) there are 11 listings for sfh. 3 are on experssway (1st ave). leaving 9. 2 are 66′ or 50’lots for 2M+. leaving 7.
those 7 are within 1M to 2M.
west of nanaimo st is one 33′ teardown and 2 new 25′ houses , 1.3M each. all 3 are in a sketchy block or 2 from hastings compared to the rest of the area.
nothing else. zip. zero . not a single decent listing. can’t buy a house if you wanted to.
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Yes, and its impacting the suburbs. My investment property in the burbs is a townhouse. Its all new development. 100% sales to listing ratio last month for the area. A similar unit to my investment townhouse sold for more than 20% of what I bought it 2 years ago.
The only thing that would impact this market would be higher interest rates, and even then, the prices will just stagnate (pace CPI), not necessarily crash.
Sorry, I don’t see how this makes any difference. The max difference is from 5% to 7.5% when this blog and others were predicting 10%. Yes you’ll need a few grand more but I don’t see how someone is going to pull back from a purchase because of that, they may lower their budget so maybe it affects prices by 1% but even that seems a stretch.
As for bond prices, if everyone knows the fed is increasing, why is the Canadian yield bottoming out again? Are bond traders just stupid or do they know we’re going to negative rates and the fed is not going to prop us up?
Interesting times. Still sticking with my spring market prediction.
I agree with those who are saying this will likely not be the last change. It is prudent to start slow, let the market adjust and then determine how much to change it by again in a year or two. For those saying it should be higher right away … you’re right it needs to be higher eventually, but shocking the system is no good either. Patience is a virtue.
We should really have a system where banks take all the risk of the mortgage, mortgage insurance is a private industry and the CMHC exists only to step in during times of need.
Of course mortgages would cost more under this scenario since the banks or the private insurance companies would be the ones taking all the risk and price their products accordingly. Houses would therefor cost less since you would either need a bigger deposit, or have to pay a higher interest rate.
#33 bdy sktrn
nothing else. zip. zero . not a single decent listing.
First: That’s a small section of Vancouver.
Second: how many Single Family Homes are there for sale on Manhattan Island, do you think?
Maybe you need to expand your horizon, and at the least consider town houses (those go for US$ 10M in Manhattan, but for CAD$ 0.7M here in East Van.) Maybe scoop one up before Vancouver goes all condos in the sky.
And if not a town-house, at least look further out, closer to Marine Drive, or Burnaby.
Greetings from Dubai.
I absorbed the pain when the CAD was at par. Patiently been saving and investing my USD-pegged, tax-free paycheques for several years now, and enjoying the 26 (now 27) % effective pay rise. Smoking Man, one word about Canada.
Run.
And now let’s see: the Fed raises, and Canada doesn’t. Loonie goes (further) in the toilet. Effective price of RE goes down as CAD devalues.
Or, Fed raises and Canada does too. And effective price of RE goes down as mortgage payments go up.
Or both.
The new rules are just icing on the cake.
Win-win-win. Bring it.
I don’t wish ill on anyone. But neither do I feel pity for those who thought that 95% leverage on a single asset was A Good Idea.
As someone mentioned yesterday, there are a lot of expats who would love to come home but just can’t stomach what has been done to the cost of owning or renting a home in Canada. It’s insane, totally unsustainable, and while its taken some time, looks to finally be heading for a collapse.
Sorry, soft landing. Whatever.
It’s so hard to see a bubble when you’re inside it…but hindsight will be crystal clear.
I told you cat pictures were fun!
Rate hike coming? Hard to tell after today, fed seems to have another excuse to hold off with global uncertainty and given today’s loss on the dow.
Let the rush to buy before Feb begin …..
They are going crazy on the radio about these new rules and everyone is laughing their face off “This will do nothing to stop all the illegal money buying up all the Vancouver RE”.
Good job Govt. Don’t do anything stop all the ILLEGAL money laundering. Just keep selling Canadians down the river. Good job.
#34 bdy sktrn
#13 YVR is still hot on 12.11.15 at 1:39 pm
There is literally no inventory and prices are high.
———————-
right now on mls for a 20 square block of the ‘best’ east van hoods – comm dr to rupert , N of broadway to hastings(maybe 7500 houses) there are 11 listings for sfh. 3 are on experssway (1st ave). leaving 9. 2 are 66′ or 50’lots for 2M+. leaving 7.
those 7 are within 1M to 2M.
west of nanaimo st is one 33′ teardown and 2 new 25′ houses , 1.3M each. all 3 are in a sketchy block or 2 from hastings compared to the rest of the area.
nothing else. zip. zero . not a single decent listing. can’t buy a house if you wanted to.
turnover time to sell under one week.
———–
So are you implying that this is a “hot” market? To me this looks like a market that is either at a seasonal low, or is a market that is seizing up i.e. nobody is selling because the cannot afford to move up to the next level.
The Harper hangover is starting to kick in.
T2 has a lot of mopping up to do.
#5 Mike in Toronto
“Are they still doing cashback mortgages and other “5%, nudge, nudge” games?”
What do you think?
Can you please explain why oil at $35/barrel is so critical now, when it wasnt pre 2004? Oil only hit $50/barrel in 2004, so why is there such a panic? Didnt oil operations run at less than $50 for decades?
Or is it just pure greed that has fueled the companies laying off the loyal workers?
What exactly is the deal?
Vancouver and Toronto have made millions of Canadians millionaires.The greatest investment of a life time.Booming economy,high wage jobs,lax lending and money laundering laws and huge immigration will make houses go up forever in these 2 cities.
Great retirement funds for millions of Canadian boomers.No pensions needed for these people and the government should take it away and use it for the refugees.
Where is the risk to the banks in this new policy ?
#20 Tony on 12.11.15 at 1:59 pm
At least this will save the taxpayers some money if the CMHC goes bust much like what’s left of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Hopefully the minimum down payments will be increased again before the housing market implodes.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The new down rules are designed to help keep more buyers from walking or declaring bankruptcy. With more skin in the game, a buyer will hang on longer if depreciation hits.
I doubt they will increase again, not until there is more confidence, and the economic bleeding stops.
You gotta move these levers slowly, to prevent a panic. The grocery store doesn’t announce over the PA that you are LOCKED IN THE STORE… rather, they say “..we are closing in 15 minutes.”
Zero Impact – People will borrow from friends, family, neighbor, dogs etc. for additional down payment. The saga continues
Yawn. Wake me up when it’s 10% across the board. Moist virgins need saving from themselves. $500K with 5% down is $25K – still insane. A tiny hiccup in the market puts you underwater. In fact, I’d be prepared to say that’s still where the majority of risky homeowners are – in the sub-500K category. You can destroy yourself with a lot less than $500K debt.
The continuing bigotry, objectification and ridicule against cats on this blog is reprehensible.
I hope your stupid dog pees on your bed tonight.
=^-^=
(. .)
^
#39 pwn3d
Sorry, I don’t see how this makes any difference. The max difference is from 5% to 7.5% when this blog and others were predicting 10%. Yes you’ll need a few grand more but I don’t see how someone is going to pull back from a purchase because of that, they may lower their budget so maybe it affects prices by 1% but even that seems a stretch.
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I agree. This is at best a timid move that is so small that BOM will just dig a little deeper. It is unlikely to deter anyone by itself and, as has been pointed out, in the short term could have the opposite effect as idiots rush to beat hike, encouraged by realtors, who will use it as a marketing tool.
Maybe this is part of several factors that will cool the market, but by itself it looks pretty inconsequential.
#25 fancy_pants on 12.11.15 at 2:06 pm
it’s a baby step in the right direction. kudos for that
Well said, government moves in slow and mysterious ways, I think 10% across the board would be more appropriate.
Real estate on Vancouver Island out of Victoria is interesting, any decent listing under $500,000 sells very quickly and the more expensive are starting to sell as the lower priced inventory just isn’t there.
Although Albertan’s account for only 15% of the market here they are still very visible everywhere. Some have purchased their “retirement” homes here and now find they can’t get what they want for their Alberta home so are carrying two places, I think Kelowna has a lot in this situation as well…..Can’t end well for them.
“Of course a 72-cent buck (or, soon, 70) is inflationary as it sends the cost of essentials like veggies and Harleys higher, making it a little tougher for people carrying big debt loads.”
– Garth
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Of course the Loonette is inflationary, as the data shows:
* In October, YoY Canadian CPI increased 1%, as it did in September.
* While inflation is running below the Central Bank’s 2% target, it is doing so only due to tanking energy prices.
* Core inflation in Canada is running at 2.1%
* Core Consumer Prices are running at a 10 year high and are trending higher.
* Food inflation is running at 4.1%, up from 3.5 previously, and trending higher.
These are all easily retrieved from StatsCan or http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/indicators
if you’re pressed for time.
The Loonette doesn’t stand a snowball’s chance in hell of recovering until we see broad commodity prices rising considerably, and that seems quite far down the road at this point.
Meanwhile, essentials not produced in Canada will become increasingly expensive, and even things like education and infrastructure maintenance will also become more expensive.
“Anyone who does not think oil creep is hitting Ontario’s industrial base or real estate markets from Vancouver Island to the Rock simply is not paying attention.” Garth
I just updated my post of yesterday on credit cycles with another chart that illustrates what is going on in the high yield markets. It’s very much connected to “non” energy related sectors.
http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/credit-cycles
“In other words, what was until a year ago a purely “energy” phenomenon is now an “everything” phenomenon, despite promises by every prominent economist that plunging energy prices are great news for the economy.”
Buy buy stocks, socks. Santa Fed will bring next week a lump of coal. Then they’ll take a hike.
tkid on 12.11.15 at 2:47 pm
Garth, you find the best photographs!
Reddit — saw this one a couple of days ago. Good choice. I laughed pretty hard when I saw it.
These change will have zero effect on real estate markets. All houses in Vancouver are above 1 mil and selling like hot cakes.
The Fed will not raise rate on Monday, or ever
Negative rates are coming to canada… here they are already starting to spin it as a good thing:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/negative-interest-rates-economy-deposit-1.3356370
Inflation? As long as the TV says there is no inflation then I guess there is no inflation… problem solved!!!
#31 David McDonald on 12.11.15 at 2:24 pm
“Garth has been predicting a lower Canadian dollar for some time and I am glad I listened. I would like to understand why the American markets are reacting so negatively to falling oil prices. Shouldn’t lower energy costs be good for an industrial economy?”
===============================
Yes, lower energy costs are usually good for industrial economies. However, you also have to consider the cause of the lower energy prices!
WTI crude was going for $110/Bbl ~18 months ago. It now snorkels along, struggling and gasping to hang above $35/Bbl.
The causes are increased oil production and lessening demand. It’s the lowering demand that is most worrisome, as it reflects the poor state of the Chinese, European and emerging market economies.
When those countries and regions are under heavy recessionary pressures, it makes for global headwinds that even those economies in much better shape, like the USA, have to struggle with.
Lower energy costs are generally beneficial to industrialized economies, but you can have too much of a good thing.
Sometimes, we should be careful what we wish for!
Forgive my ignorance, what is the present limit? 500K will be 5% minimum down in Feb 2016, what is it now?
Nice to see a cat pic for a change, even if it is not a very happy kitty.
Perfect Valentine’s gift for HER. Hasn’t SHE waited long enough???
Read between the lines sheeple!
Downpayment rule change is a psychological push only. No really difference.
Why would they do that? Protect housing at all cost….because they are scared it may crash!
So…it should be crustal clear by now that to make $$$$, short the loonie!!! ….unless you buy BS like that.
So how does this affect mortgages that are coming up for renewal after Feb 15th, 2016? If the remaining mortgage amount is more that $500k, and the LTV is greater than 95%, does this mean people could be on the hook for a balloon payment?
A margin call on the housing market?
“the Harperites adopted a US-style, laissez-faire approach to housing”
Um, wouldn’t laissez-faire require that the government dismantle CMHC altogether? Nothing laissez-faire about taking on the banks’ RE risk.
@ #23
Loonie to less than 60.
CHCH CHANEL 11 announcement at 4.
Another MSM outlet bites the dust…
Trumpify your operations If you want to live. The herd is tired of the constant PC. and bull shit news.
The herd is awake. Trump polling numbers prove it.
Seniors on low and fixed incomes, singles, single Moms, working families and people on disability are starving, no longer able to afford fresh meat and vegetables. Yesterday it was reported that groceries would go up 4%, what a joke, broccoli is the same prices as chicken or pork and a single pound of cauliflower costs as much as beef. Mr Poloz seems to have a Messianic Mission and we will be ground under his boot. ‘Heat or Eat’ is in every conversation in the long lines at the Food Banks these days.
I laughed and laughed when the government included ‘climate change’ as a reason for the hyper escalation of food prices in Canada. So why are the same grocery items a quarter the price in the US and Mexico? It is the Canadian dollar in free fall that has hyper inflated the cost of food, because transportation is all calculated in USD. Boy, they think everyone is stupid obviously.
To add insult to injury it is apparent in the wholesale market that US buyers are outbidding Canadian food chains for veg and meat in particular because the low loon can’t compete in the open bid market. Just like in houses, it is the foreign buyer who pays 40++% lower for all goods prices in $C. We simply can’t compete while the BOC is determined to drive the C$ down below any competitive range.
A million dollar house in Vancouver costs an American less than $600,000. A Yuan holder from China ( which is linked to the USD) also pays 40% less than a Canadian. A UK Pound holder pays 50 cents on the dollar as the UK Pound is 2-1. Even the Thai Baht has appreciated 35% over the C$ in the past 18 months. It’s not looking good for Canada.
We all know that food costs and consumer goods are inflating far faster than the government admits. Anyone who goes to a grocery store from one week to the next knows the truth. We are witnessing hyperinflating costs as they have seen in Venezuela and Brazil. To say otherwise is denial.
Yes, lower energy costs are usually good for industrial economies. However, you also have to consider the cause of the lower energy prices!
WTI crude was going for $110/Bbl ~18 months ago. It now snorkels along, struggling and gasping to hang above $35/Bbl.
The causes are increased oil production and lessening demand. It’s the lowering demand that is most worrisome, as it reflects the poor state of the Chinese, European and emerging market economies.
When those countries and regions are under heavy recessionary pressures, it makes for global headwinds that even those economies in much better shape, like the USA, have to struggle with.
Lower energy costs are generally beneficial to industrialized economies, but you can have too much of a good thing.
Sometimes, we should be careful what we wish for!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Yeah….cheap oil. And now gas is only 85 cents in Vancouver…….
oh wait……
Relax is predicting a drop of only 3.5% in Edmonton and 4% in Calgary this year. Garth, do you think this number is accurate or do you think they are full of Alberta BS?
http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/calgary/remax-housing-outlook-2016-1.3359188
An example on the effect of Fear Mongering by the WRA in Alberta. Is this WRA-Democracy in action?
Yes, Rachel will have her hands full unravelling the Big Mess created by the AB PCs.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/notley-assassination-comments-bill-6-brian-jean-1.3361063
People should be given free houses. Trudeau should simply take over the CMHC, why waste your time with the banks acting as middlemen for goverment money etc. simply give everyone a house, they bypass the banks and pay the goverment directly. if they cant pay, reposess then give you a loosier house in a bad neighbourhood so you either live like a bum or smarten up and then ask the govemment for a nicer house. since its all made up money printed by the goverment etc. i find this entire working for a wage, paying taxes, to pay some banker for some house to live in, well kind of a prison sentence that you cant get out of.
i propose 100% ownership of all the homes by the goverment and we all live in them, this whole private greed thing will kill us all before our time.
you may laugh, but its not communist its facism. a better approach. or stick with trudeau junior, a 65 cent dollar and higher unemployment, and crazy taxes. 53% tax aboe 220k in ontario next year, canadian dollars, why would anyone who cant incorporate even bother working past 50%. like thats nothing, any good salesman makes that. save yourself the trouble and pack your bags and go crossborderworking. the brain drain will be huge this time, we will only be left with people who are old, poor and sick living in canada. Plane load of refugees are arriving as we speak.
Yes. Good start Mr. Bill. We needed that.
Now. Update from Alberta. Garth and dawgs were right. Canadians will do anything to try to keep from losing their houses.
The latest. People with $40,000+ vehicles are selling them, nutz removed, and downgrading to vehicles worth up to $5,000. In most cases buying the cheaper vehicle first, and then putting up the other one for sale, so they have a car to drive through it all. This is to stay afloat, as most of them are unemployed, others have seen income decreases, and others just see the writing on the wall. Toronto and Vancouver are still in the frenzy state, which is long gone in Alberta. As I have said here a few times before, you never see the bullet coming, and then, it hits you.
#18 Bram on 12.11.15 at 1:57 pm.
Is it gonna hurt the market? Probably. Better a little hurt now, than 10 times the hurt later.
____________________________________
I worry that we are way past hurt a little now. I think we’re already at the hurt 10x later point.
I look at the house price index on the economist. I’ve heard people say “but they’ve been calling it a bubble for 5 years, no correction”. That’s not a sign there isn’t a bubble. Just means the bubble has gotten bigger.
The increase in down payment for 500k houses is insignificant. Condos/townhomes cost less than 500k in big cities. And there are many ways for those who cannot produce a minimum down payment to get a loan for a down payment. Loan sharks are aplenty. Just look around signs in your neighbourhood. Even kijiji ads.
Better for you people to buy houses. I’m just a renter because I cant afford a house or a condo. More renters=higher rents. Its demand and supply.
Due to Fluff Boy trying to impress his new found international friends any benefits the low oil prices would bring to the manufacturing economy are going to be eaten up by the new taxation. You know the ones ? The ones our contingent of 358 global warming hangers on are proposing in Paris.
If we have a balanced portfolio as you recommend
and we have extra money to invest
Where would you invest? buy a Canadian ETF while its low (could go lower… but how much lower?) versus US ETF?
And would you buy it currency hedged or not?
Thanks!
#49 Forest Lawn Calgary on 12.11.15 at 3:14 pm
Can you please explain why oil at $35/barrel is so critical now, when it wasnt pre 2004? Oil only hit $50/barrel in 2004, so why is there such a panic? Didnt oil operations run at less than $50 for decades?
Or is it just pure greed that has fueled the companies laying off the loyal workers?
What exactly is the deal?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
The deal is that cheap easy to find oil has gone the way of the dodo. Except in Saudi Arabia and a few other OPEC/Third World dictatorships. Alberta has no cheap oil left to bring to the market.
Western Canada Select (Heavy Oil) has about a $14 differential to WTI (West Texas Intermediate, a light, easy to refine benchmark crude). This means that at $35 – $14 = $21. At $21.00, the vast majority of companies in the heavy oil business can’t even afford to lift the oil out of the ground and put it in a pipeline.
And we’re not talking about developing the play, acquiring the land, shooting seismic, drilling, fraccing and replacing the oil that you put in the pipeline today. Full cycle economics is likely closer to $65.00. Without a $65 price the industry bleeds cash and death is inevitable, hence the layoffs.
To make matters worse, production volumes now tend to fall off quite quickly. This rapid burst of early stage “flush production” is usually what oil companies rely on to get their cash back. If the flush production is sold at $30/bbl, the wells will never make money, so there’s no point drilling them.
Also, back around 2000 or so, there was no such thing as the LLR (Licensee Liability Ratio). This ratio forces companies to place a deposit with the Alberta government to cover off well abandonment costs in excess of the value of the wells. When the commodity price tanks, Notley comes in looking for even more $$$ from the oil companies for deposits.
The LLR program is bankrupting numerous smaller players that typically run risks and find the new big plays and oilfields that the majors are too timid to drill. Kind of like killing off your farm team in hockey and then wondering why there’s no one there to take over when someone gets injured.
It’s not about greed; greed is just a fond memory now. It’s about living past next week. Think Walking Dead and the Zombies just breached the wall at Alexandria. That’s where things are now.
#ThisWillDefinitelyBeFun… #EndOfAnEra,Or… #Don’tGetYourKitty… #AllInALather,But… #
NaziBarbiePamAndersonSpreadsIt… #OneLastTimeForHugh…[Guardian] – Playboy magazine publishes last issue featuring naked women: The latest issue, featuring Pamela Anderson, went on sale Friday, months after the men’s magazine announced it would switch to only ‘non-nude’ content
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/dec/11/playboy-last-nude-issue-pamela-anderson
#RevengeOfThePaglia…
[Telegraph] – Taylor Swift is an ‘elitist Nazi Barbie’, says feminist icon Camille Paglia: The cultural critic slams Swift in a new piece analysing the rise of social media-fixated ‘girl squads’
“Women need to study the immensely productive dynamic of male bonding in history. With their results-oriented teamwork, men largely have escaped the sexual jealousy, emotionalism and spiteful turf wars that sometimes dog women.” – Camille Paglia
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/celebritynews/12045252/Taylor-Swift-is-an-elitist-Nazi-Barbie-says-feminist-icon-Camille-Paglia.html
#DistraughtOverNewMortgageRegulations… #HogTownPlay
BoyGirl… #Regresses…[Independent] – Transgender father Stefonknee Wolschtt leaves family in Toronto to start new life as six-year-old girl: Ms Wolschtt says she does not ‘want to be an adult right now’
“It’s called play therapy. No medication, no suicide thoughts. And I just get to play.” – Stefonknee Wolschtt
#Bonus
NaziBarbiePam…https://youtu.be/agvk8gz-wwY
[NoteToGT: One day I really must tell you about my dinner date with Ms. Anderson – formerly Miss Labatts]
#MissingLink…
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/stefonknee-wolschtt-transgender-father-leaves-family-in-toronto-to-start-new-life-as-a-six-year-old-a6769051.html
Many Canadians acted arrogant and smug for the 1 year the CAD was above the USD saying how strong Canada was and smart.
Now that it has COLLAPSED to be worth 1 CAD = 0.72 USD, they are saying it’s on purpose and is a great thing for the economy.
Simple people.
Cats are not fun.
What’s truly funny is the fact that I sold all my real estate holdings a year ago and I bought safe stuff (Cpd,Pff) thinking I was pretty smart. I’m guessing I was better off with the real estate. Also is the new Saudi approach to giving away as much oil as possible a new form of terrorism? It’s working very well.
“Of course a 72-cent buck (or, soon, 70) is inflationary as it sends the cost of essentials like veggies and Harleys higher, making it a little tougher for people carrying big debt loads. And did I mention 36,000 lost jobs last month, a hike in the unemployment rate or the TSX losing 12% this year?”
I’m not seeing how inflation is bad for people with stupid debt loads… In fact it seems inflation is great for these people. Pay back their with dollars worth less than they were when borrowed.
Inflation really sucks for savers…
Garth,
Junk bond market is crashing… put on your helmet and take cover, it’s gonna get ugly fast.
Is this a big deal?
Yeah, it is. And credit where credit is due.
better late than never
Den Tandt’s question ( speaking as if he were the Liberal Government ) remains relevant: “Who do we disappoint next and how soon?
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/national/michael+tandt+98who+disappoint+next+wasn+this+supposed+where/11574310/story.html
as for “who” the answer is the real estate industry and as to “how soon” the answer is tout-de-suite.
#38 YVR is still hot
Like Wil E. Coyote.
NYC is now at 9 % vacancy rates. Sydney has something like 14% empty apartments. There will be lots of inventory all of a sudden!
Sweet Lausanne! Has anyone seen the loonie recently! $0.7268 as I write this. Lordy, Lordy….you Canucks are in for a rude, painful surprise!
As Terry Tate used to say:
You know you can’t bring that weak-ass stuff up in this humpy bumpy!
You kill the joe, you make some mo’! You know that baby!
Else you are in for a long day. A looong day! Because triple T is up in this BITCH!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-11/stocks-slammed-worst-week-black-monday-amid-crude-credit-carnage
Before we start, summarizing the bloodbath…
—CAD Weaker by 2.75% – worst week in 5 months
—WTI Crude Down 10.9% – worst week since Dec 2014
Tick… tick… tick…
That ticking noise is the sound of inevitability!
#73 Gabby Truman
Because we are stupid and the monetary policy is managed by a complete idiot.
He is contemplating negative nominal interest rates people!
Loonie at .72 is not enough for him. If he had any integrity he would increase the interest rates to 6 +%
Oil at #35/bbl is not a disaster but an opportunity to recalibrate our costs. When you look at the average oil price since 1973 it is around $40/bbl. Over the past 10 years we have become accustomed to $100/bbl oil and therefore our costing demands have risen as well. This is human nature so the inverse is true as well whereby the industry and Governments have to readjust downward.
From Toronto realty blog Oct 15, 2014
Looks like the sliding scale for mortgage insurance that he talked about came true for him.
http://www.torontorealtyblog.com/archives/11633
I don’t see how this changes anything in Toronto or Vancouver. How exactly did this encourage people to save for tomorrow instead of expecting their house to bail them out of cash poor futures?
Why are people so anxious to keep the CAD high?
A 70¢ CAD will help our economy:
Canadians stop buying expensive imports, and will buy local instead.
This is a double whammy for Canadian corporations:
1) They will sell more to the internal market, as Canadians cannot afford the US products.
2) They will sell more to the international markets, as Americans will get a bargain when they buy Canadian.
I thought everyone was mourning the horrible state of our manufacturing base?
I say: on to 50¢ CAD, which the government could help along by lowering interest, not increasing.
But I do believe that Trudeau is largely at the mercy of factors outside of Canada’s borders as to whether Canada can snap back quickly…
Translation: I’m not going to hold JT accountable for Canada’s economic performance.
Clear bias.
JT is sitting in the driver’s seat as Canada drives into an economic ditch.
Get the popcorn.
#83 Ex-Cowtown
Thanks for that – very informative.
If the loonie goes near 65 cents, I’m buying another rental in Calgary. ;)
Some nice tax loss selling going on the last few days. TSX closed 12789 today, down 13.3% from start of year but only down 6.7% from Dec. 15, 2014 where it closed at 13,705. From that point it gained 1048 points between Dec. 15/14 and Jan. 2/15, for a 7.7% gain in the following two weeks. Expecting we will see something similar again this year. Best time to buy will be next weekend and expect a nice rally in the new year. Time to load up on some nice bargains.
#99 bram on 12.11.15 at 6:47 pm
Sure, if Canada actually has manufacturers/producers left. The fact is, Canada has become a one trick pony, and will have to bring manufacturing back to fulfill the internal demands. Even then, with globalization, it’ll probably be cheaper to import things from China, and US.
What pissed me off is that my weakened loonies can’t buy the same service from foreign countries when I travel abroad, which is 4-5 months period out of a year.
Spot check this morning on Kingston Road at 6 0’clock 14 to 20 cops. Narrowing the road to one lane pulling everyone over and sticking their head in your window to smell for booze. WTF. Show me your papers!!!
I want freedom first to mc my wedding. it’d be hilarious.
“In other words, what was until a year ago a purely “energy” phenomenon is now an “everything” phenomenon, despite promises by every prominent economist that plunging energy prices are great news for the economy.”
So much for balanced and diversified blog dogs. As more and more markets become interconnected, you will soon just end up with “The Market”. Hope you like the colour red.
What? The only cat photo is of an ugly one? Compared to all the hundreds of cute dog photos? If this unabashed pro-dog bias continues, I’m going to have to start making “How Norway is better than anywhere else” posts again…
From the archives: Province Newspaper.
December 31, 1973 – The average house price in Vancouver in the final quarter of the year was $46,467.
July 11, 1974 – Resources Minister Bob Williams has his house in the exclusive Rockland district of Victoria on sale for $137,000.
Aug. 17, 1974 – Average house price in Vancouver in June was $54,254 with slowing sales. Up 16.7% from last quarter of 1973. Mortgage rates 11.75 to 12%.
B.C. continues to be a popular place to live. Don’t expect interest rates to ever go below 10% again.
Resale market very good for homes in lower bracket. Vendors asking big prices. Black market in rentals (I’ll pay you $500 if I can get the suite you vacate). In the medium and more so in lower range, buyers have to go out to Surrey, Haney and Abbotsford and away from Metro area to get prices the can afford. Dow hits 4 year low to 731.34 after 7 declining sessions.
By the fall of 74, the market came to a grinding halt with prices dropping fast. West Vancouver was the worst hit.
#96 Drill Baby Drill on 12.11.15 at 6:41 pm
Oil at #35/bbl is not a disaster but an opportunity to recalibrate our costs.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Wow. Never I thought of it that way. I guess starvation is just an opportunity to “recalibrate” your life expectancy.
#23
“. Housing should be affordable and CMHC does exactly the opposite of its original intent.”
Yes, there is a lesson here about government programs never keeping their original scope. CMHC was never intended to provide subsidies to the banks for luxury or second home purchases.
It is quite clearly a case of moral hazard. It also has major macro-economic effects. The data is clear that Canadian banks play a fraction of their former role in funding the development of new businesses.
Why? Because it is easier for them to sit back and rake in record profits through government subsidies (e.g., CMHC insurance, 80+ billion dollar purchases of mortgage securities).
This leads to a general lack of availability of capital in Canada to put towards new businesses or upgrading existing ones. It is one of the reasons that Canada is a rump resource economy.
That is independent of the CMHCs role in housing, and the ill effects of high housing costs (e.g., reduced labour mobility, reduced savings, etc).
Listings will swell. Sellers will be motivated to cashing in.
Chasing fewer qualified buyers. Not enough Chinese or other foreign buyers scooping up every house from Horseshoe Bay to Abbotsford.
Locals will not upgrade and fewer new buyers in the market. At the same time, more and more will try to downsize and take that equity they’ve built over the last 5 years to the bank.
RE is no longer hot. The moist will dry up and the folks sitting in houses with 700k+ assessment value in Coquitlam, Burnaby, Surrey, Langley, Abbotsford and so on will be sweating.
Game on!
5% and 10% are still way too low, but it’s a step in the right direction.
Hopefully, Morneau will increase minimum down payments to 20% eventually. That’s when sanity will return to the market.
When I bought a condo in the early 90s, I had to have 20%. Then a few years later when buying a house, I had 75% down. I still had to have CMHC coverage. How times have changed.
All I have to say is : LONG the USD
SHORT OIL
INVERSE THE TSX
Merry Xmas to one and all !!!!!
And watch out what my happen this Monday to the US markets…
#89 zedgt87
That is only the case when there is wage inflation. We don’t have it, haven’t had it and won’t have it any time soon.
is that grupy cat’s grumpier cousin?
Garth,
This will mean nothing. Most will just dip into there lines of credit to make up the difference. Only massive job loss or sharp increase in interest rates will bring prices down.
actually its probably grumpy cat’s husband
“Where would you invest? buy a Canadian ETF while its low (could go lower… but how much lower?) versus US ETF?”
Market timing is not recommended but it’s going to be red as far as the eye can see everywhere.
Man builds tiny house in East Van; then gets in trouble:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/tiny-east-vancouver-home-real-estate-1.3361281?cmp=rss
“The ground breaking idea that people without the money should not be buying houses.. Who knew?”
This is 2015 for darn sake..We have to have it all NOW! Houses, debt, new cars, vacations, etc…Sacrifice? So 1960’s of you…
Your taking all the fun out of life with comments like this Garth….all the fun…
#24 TRT on 12.11.15 at 2:01 pm
Loonie….
Burn baby burn. Most don’t realize it’s Canada that’s burning.
Snowbirds on fixed pensions are screwed.
Households that spend a lot with no money saved are screwed.
Retirees with Candian GICs and fat bank accounts just lost almost 40% of their money in last 3 years…and they don’t even know it.
Any currency trader here want to predict where the Loonie stops bleeding?
I’m going to say 66.6 cents.
….
In the .55
#107 Patrick
Yes it would be hilarious….better for the bachelor party 1970’s style…remember those..Men’s night.
Poker, craps, bad stag films, the odd stripper. A cut of each purse went to the groom to be. No women, minors allowed. Lots of smoking, 3 generations of men. Friday nights.
No pamsy wamsy Stag and Doe’s…my father’s generation would be appalled if they knew it had come down to this. That’s what the wedding day was for.
Shit, I’m starting to sound like Freedom First..
YVR is still hot:
You seem pretty sure that your so called “investment” condo will magically level off and track CPI in future.
Why not take this opportunity and sell? Once people realize the tide is turning you could see a flood of units from amateur landlords and “investors” hit the market
Timid steps… but, at least they are something. A requirement for 10% at < $500K and 15% from $500K to .999K would have been more effective.
I think it will be a rather self-correcting problem, as the world economy is smelling rather poorly at present. Given that observation, who really thinks much about the fate of over-priced Canadian RE, or the recent suckers who bought.
No job = hard to make big house payments. Nobody saw that one coming, eh?
“You gotta move these levers slowly, to prevent a panic. The grocery store doesn’t announce over the PA that you are LOCKED IN THE STORE… rather, they say “..we are closing in 15 minutes.”
You mean, on the way down right? Yet everyone was ok with crazy 20% sprint to the moon?
Re: #103 Nick on 12.11.15 at 6:59 pm
If Obama loses the November election I’d plow everything (post U.S. election) into oil and borrow on margin to buy anything oil related.
When the new down-payment rules arrive, does this mean there will be downward pressure to keep the sale price under a $Million?
From $999,999 (down payment is $74,999 with CMHC) to $1,000,000 (down payment is $200,000 without CMHC), the down-payment required jumps by $125K.
How likely will this change discourage buyers from bidding over that magic million mark – or encourage sellers to stay under it?
#50 forest lawn
I think it is just the shock of the change. If oil remains at $35, op costs will adjust to some lower level, say $25. If oil is at $100, op costs drift up to $80. The transition between creates pain because prices change faster than those creating the costs
Regarding inflation, I just paid $9.98 for 2 small heads of cauliflower at the co-op in Calgary. $10 for cauliflower to make a (what I thought was) a cheap curry. Yikes. Good thing I bought those phoenix condos in 2010.
This new rule will not make a difference.
I hope it’s a first step toward something more effective.
But it just could be the start of a new series of ineffective rules adopted only to pretend something is being done about the bubble while passing it over to the next gov.
Re: #24 TRT on 12.11.15 at 2:01 pm
A lot of variables one being I don’t believe data out of America. Can only assume in an election year the monthly jobs reports leading up to the election can’t be on the low side. I would pick the low for the Canadian dollar being in either April or May 2016 somewhere close to the level you said around 67 cents.
Fed timeline
Dec 2015: +0.25% increase
Feb 2016: – 0.25% decrease
May 2016: QE4 x infinity
#129 Mr. Numbers on 12.11.15 at 8:23 pm
If anything, these rules soften the pressure that is built just below the $1 million mark. The $0.99 million home will now require $75K down instead of just $50K, thus narrowing the gap that already exists to the $200-down, $1-million-dollar home.
“If Obama loses the November election”
Uhh…..
Smoking man, think we need to grab a drink next year.
if oil hits 34 I see it dropping to 70.
if feds raise the rates 65.
at current oil and feds raise rates I see it 69
fed not touching rates then it will move with oil.
it’ll stabilize in the 66-68 range me thinks though… maybe. unless our boc smokes some bad crack and decides to drop it again…
wish I had more leverage to get into some USDCAD contracts… instead I’m just trying to put debt indulgence mistakes behind me and go again.
Hi Garth
I’m submitting this post as I get ready to fly back to Kelowna after 3 days of business meetings in Vancouver. This is definitely looking like a market overheating. None of the major developers in Vancouver I spoke with in the last 3 days have much inventory and everyone is running flat out and short of trades. Kelowna is not that crazy but still has a surprisingly strong market. Given the facts in your post tonight ( and I agree) , I believe we are on the cusp……
DALLYING WITH FAIRY TALES AND INVISIBLE
UNICORNS IN COW TOWN
#50 Forest Lawn
The difference between pre-2004 and 2015 is that the world didn’t have in excess of 30 million barrels of crude ‘trapped” in sea-going tankers and dry land tanks. And daily inventory just keeps piling up.
Current $35.00 US WTI oil prices (Brent at $38.00 US) will continue lower. Those numbers reflect the truth, that we’re all financially hooped.
Why?
Simply, no buyers out there have the jam (or the “credit facilities”) to start buying more, because of general economic stagnation. And the sellers are desperately hanging on for higher prices and most are either going broke or are now “there”.
It wouldn’t surprise me if there is a spot and futures market prices jam-up, a “strike” if you will, because no one wants to blink first.
Watch for the word “contango”. It is NOT an Argentinian dance move.
As part of the above comment, it is worth it to keep eyes out for the laddies running the Middle Eastern oil/gas fields; they are marketing experts (sharks) and they will RULE that pricing roost until they don’t or can’t.
WATCH FOR THEIR NEXT BAD DAY AT BLACK ROCK
The day they lose pricing control (you’ll know because oil prices will be exploding upwards) will arrive through the breakout of one of two events.
Either:
–local sovereign economies will have imploded sufficiently (and street riots broken out), because of revenue shortages, and production will collapse;
–or, a horrible region-wide Sunni-Shia war will have erupted and we’ll all be sucked in, like it or lump it. Remember, war is expensive and it will flatten many economies.
That’s pretty much the story.
THE OTHER DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 2004 AND 2015…
…ALSO rates mention here;
because there was no Great Financial Crisis, a la 2008, before 2004. I should mention, of course, the 911 attacks, the 2000 NASDAQ meltdown and some other silly financial this ‘n’ that, but NO huge recession that followed the Wall Street collapses of ’08.
The main outcome of the GFC is very low interest rates whose dangers St. Garth of “Pay Attention” has screaming at you about for lo’ these many years.
BTW, commodity prices are ALSO affected by low interest rates.
Why?
Because cheap borrowed money has allowed miners and oil/natty gas drillers to ramp up production believing that cheap money creates world-wide prosperity and endless demand for their resources.
WRONG. EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE IS HAPPENING…
…because debts have become so huge, and debt repayments so punishing, they have gummed up the economic machinery. Therefore poverty reins supreme in many parts of the world. This is why the world is experiencing its first major economic depression since the Dirty Thirties. The Year 2008 was the perfunctory start of this disaster.
Forest Lawn:
We all have no control over world monetary rates and commodity prices, two reasons why your city (the NDP incompetents notwithstanding) is getting whacked so badly. And it’s NOT going to stop.
Not even the recently-annointed one in Ottawa, struggling to make good on his 345 election promises, has any clue of what lies ahead.
That youngster has a lot of growing up to do. Hopey-Changey has made like Elvis and “left the building”. His lessons will be hard ones indeed.
This blog has been advising all of us on how to rescue our Millennial, and Boomer butts for some long time.
Anyone paying attention then acting accordingly?
Very few I think. The full force of this economic typhoon will be hitting us all by next spring, everywhere, and anyhow.
You can take that one to the bank.
#129 Mr. Numbers on 12.11.15 at 8:23 pm
When the new down-payment rules arrive, does this mean there will be downward pressure to keep the sale price under a $Million?
From $999,999 (down payment is $74,999 with CMHC) to $1,000,000 (down payment is $200,000 without CMHC), the down-payment required jumps by $125K.
How likely will this change discourage buyers from bidding over that magic million mark – or encourage sellers to stay under it?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
The $1M threshold issue was always there.
As Garth mentioned already, CMHC does not cover house purchases over $1M. Buyer needs minimum %20 or banks won’t fund. (The banks require that buffer to protect themselves, not the buyer, in the event of mortgage default)
List your home at $1M or more.. don’t worry about first time buyers.. there are none at that price point anyway, no matter what the rules are.
Is this a government infused soft landing that they are aiming for with this? Is it too late to avoid a full burst in the market?
By all accounts it seems like a move which (as you have said) needed to really happen years ago to help keep the economy balanced a bit better. I am curious though; if this had been brought in a couple of years ago would BC also be in a recession as well then?
#138 Form Man on 12.11.15 at 9:19 pm
You’ve been away for awhile. Missed your duking it out with DA.
128 Tony
**********************************************
Obama by law is not allowed to run again. The US constitution limits governance to two terms only. Obama is in his second term as president.
FYI
Like I stated earlier in the week. Negative rates coming as jobs evaporate, basic needs like food, shelter increase in cost. Of course there is the cost of gas which for some reason skyrockets on the first sniff of crude increases but allows retailers to continue taking what little savings might be left. Fuel should be down around 85 cents a litre or less….about like the dollar
“Oil is now down to $35 a barrel, and has lost 42% of its value since the summer. That’s a disaster, currently unravelling housing market confidence in Calgary, Edmonton, Regina and Saskatoon.”
I don’t know what are you talking about…. Edmonton is a stable market….
this down payment change will not make any difference… it is a joke to say that adding $5k more for the down payment will protect the value on a $600k house….
Garth you didn’t pathetically predicted anything, you already had reported here from another source last week. Not necessary to blow smoke up our rear ends like a Realtor.
To be accurate, I predicted on Thursday the announcement would be made Friday. It was. Last week I reported that a mortgage industry publication first stated the changes were being contemplated. Relax. — Garth
“TORONTO — The Canadian Bankers Association warned the former Conservative government that a proposal to have banks shoulder more of the risk associated with home mortgage loans could hurt the country’s financial stability.”
Ottawa told plan to shift more mortgage risk to banks threatens nation’s financial stability
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/ottawa-told-plan-to-shift-more-mortgage-risk-to-banks-threatens-nations-financial-stability
“For the fiscal year as a whole, the six banks reported total earnings of almost $35 billion, with Royal Bank’s record $10-billion profit leading a very healthy pack.”
Canada’s big banks earn $35B in profits for 2015
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-profits-rise-1.3348661
#111 Cowtown
Starvation ? Really ? Quit wishing for disasters at every turn. Your posts in general tend to reflect that. The smart way to go thru life is to adjust and make the best.
Calgary has always been boom and bust and always will. I have been thru 5 oil downturns in my career.
#137 mishuko on 12.11.15 at 9:17 pm
Smoking man, think we need to grab a drink next year.
….
Better do it quick. My damn family is plotting an intervention. The other night, we went total south Carolina trailer trash.
Older lad, in a fowl mood now that his marriage is over got hammered, I was hammered.
There was words, before I knew it, my mind snapped, I was back in the old Jr hockey playing days.
It was ugly.. he’s got a shinner and my lose tooth is missing.
My former drug addict son, now huge player in the rehab businesses came over for a talk tonight …Everyone on side except for me..
There out to get me help.
I’m a disciplined lush..high functioning.
I know I’m an alcoholic, and not ashamed.
I don’t want to rot away in a nursing home. I’ve made enough loot for all of them never to work a day in there life again..
Please family, let me self destruct with dignaty, and without grulling sobar back pain.
“The government’s role in housing is to set and maintain a framework that is equitable, stable and vulnerable,” Morneau told a news conference.
“This will impact one per cent or less of the market.”
But in Vancouver, where the benchmark price of a single family home recently hit $1.1-million, experts predict it is first-time homebuyers that will feel the pinch.
Realty expert Tsur Somerville said the regulations will do little to discourage the luxury and offshore buyers that many speculate are fueling the red-hot sales in the city.
“I think it’s really hard to look at the housing market here and say it’s low down payment first-time buyers that are causing all the craziness,” said Somerville.
VICTORIA sales skyrocket in November. 23%
listings plummet
bidding wars emerging
(CTV VI)
where’s VREU with her folksy foolishness and bad. expensive, advice?
“eight turgid years of Con rule”
Does anybody know anybody who uses “turgid”? (other than a medical doctor, a literary critic, or GT)
Any non-interest raising way of deflating real estate is good. Raise interest rates now and the economy is going to tilt back into recession (if it ever came out). Credit markets in the US are going into a tail spin. Big junk bond mutual fund in the US (Third avenue) just went bust.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-investing-gundlach-idUSKBN0TU2MC20151211
Where then hell is Holly Crap Tylonel?
Missing the good ole days of peak oil
So – just got the YoY numbers from our business locations for November… definitely showing weakness in a number of areas in Canada
Okanagon -14%
Van Island +2%
Edmonton -8%
Calgary -10%
Saskatchewan -10%
Quebec is flat with one smaller location at -20% and the other two at +0-2% growth
Van and TO are growing at 20% on average – still not feeling the pain.
Average in our entire system (US/Canada/Australia) +25%
Again – our business is highly sensitive to housing and the economy…
Twitter starting to piss me off…
All these people pushing self help books. Mean while, the only loot they ever made is selling self help books.
Positive happy dinks. That crap makes me sick.
To make it, it’s all about having an addictive personality. Get hooked on something that makes money. Your going to make it, can’t lose.
An addictive personality does come with some side effects..
If you got one of those. Never try.
Smoking
Drinking
Hookers
Politics
Not in that order.
And definitely stay away from the comments section of Greater Fool..
Tidbits from Calgary…….
Dropped off my car at Mercedes-Benz for service today. The dealership’s service department was dead. The service writer told me it has been really, really, slow for the last 3 months. My car was done by 1100AM……..
Bought a ticket to Brasil on United.com for May 2016. $760 CAD including taxes……..in August of 2015 I went to Rio and it cost me $1,400 CAD for economy class.
Say what ???
#129 Mr. Numbers on 12.11.15 at 8:23 pm
When the new down-payment rules arrive, does this mean there will be downward pressure to keep the sale price under a $Million?
————————–
the million rule is not old.
and welcome to the blog.
correction – not new (of course)
999k went from 50 to 75k
1m went from 200k to 200k
condos only in van in this range
#153 Nagraj on 12.11.15 at 10:22 pm
GT used “erudite” the other day. Your posts aren’t much better. Had to look up “Mephistophelian” last week.
I believe this is what Garth means by “…currently unraveling housing market confidence in…Edmonton”:
House price forecast from Realtors (will probably be worse):
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/remax-housing-outlook-2016-1.3359188
CMHC:
http://edmontonjournal.com/business/local-business/edmonton-housing-markets-slower-in-2016-cmhc
Others:
http://www.metronews.ca/news/edmonton/2015/12/11/edmonton-s-real-estate-market-set-for-correction-in-2016–expert.html
Landlords Doing Poorly:
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/free+rent+month+calgary+edmonton+landlords+renters+prices+fall/11574725/story.html
_______________________
Yup, all signs of a pretty stable market in Edmonton.
Is the twenty percent down payment requirement on mortgages over 1 million Federally mandated?
#153 Nagraj
Romance novelists often use “turgid” as an adjective.
I won’t tell you what the noun is thou.
DELETED
#144 dosouth on 12.11.15 at 9:48 pm
the cost of gas which for some reason skyrockets on the first sniff of crude increases but allows retailers to continue taking what little savings might be left. Fuel should be down around 85 cents a litre or less….about like the dollar
———————
gas at 2.00 to 2.05/gal today in bellingham
20% drop over a few weeks
2% drop in van . cdns get shafted.
time to install that extra large tank in the truck.
it’s never been more enjoyable and profitable to boycott cdn gas retailers.
CHCH TV announces massive layoffs as part of restructuring plan
http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2015/12/11/chch-tv-cancels-friday-night-newscast-causing-speculation-on-stations-future.html
I sure hope Yellin follows through on an interest rate raise, but I doubt that will happen.
World economy is not good. As goes Oil, so goes many economies.
By the way, California is still dry, wait your $6 produce is merely a teaser price. Same with meat, but that’s a year off yet.
You can always eat your house, right?
Do you not buy fruit and vegetables in the winter? Drink coffee or tea in the morning? Use that virgin olive oil and pepper in your salad?
Take note where they come from – not Canada.
And yes, Canada has been doing so well with Exports and a lower CDN dollar:
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/151204/dq151204b-eng.htm
And manufacturing, just booming:
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/151201/cg-b003-eng.htm
Farm commodity prices here are lousy this year. Corn down to low $3 a bu. Soybeans $6 bu.
That’s weak. So, slow equipment sales, few new pick ups, and next year doesn’t look much better. Why declining foreign currencies, their produce cheaper to import than buy domestic.
Yeah, there is a silver lining to some of this stuff.
Don’t worry dogs, .I’m no Hunter or Hemingway,
I want to die slowly, and share…
I wish I was though..
But love this song on a good buzz.on
…..
The Final Cut (Waters)
Through the fish-eyed lens of tear stained eyes
I can barely define the shape of this moment in time
And far from flying high in clear blue skies
I’m spiraling down to the hole in the ground where I hide.
If you negotiate the minefield in the drive
And beat the dogs and cheat the cold electronic eyes
And if you make it past the shotgun in the hall,
Dial the combination, open the priesthole
And if I’m in I’ll tell you what’s behind the wall.
There’s a kid who had a big hallucination
Making love to girls in magazines.
He wonders if you’re sleeping with your new found faith.
Could anybody love him
Or is it just a crazy dream?
And if I show you my dark side
Will you still hold me tonight?
And if I open my heart to you
And show you my weak side
What would you do?
Would you sell your story to Rolling Stone?
Would you take the children away
And leave me alone?
And smile in reassurance
As you whisper down the phone?
Would you send me packing?
Or would you take me home?
Thought I oughta bare my naked feelings,
Thought I oughta tear the curtain down.
I held the blade in trembling hands
Prepared to make it but just then the phone rang
I never had the nerve to make the final cut.
“Hello? Listen, I think I’ve got it. Okay, listen its a HaHa!”
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/get-ready-for-a-housing-market-frenzy-in-toronto-and-vancouver-over-the-next-two-months
The federal government is changing the rules on residential real estate down payments but giving consumers a two months heads up — and that should mean a stampede to beat the deadline.
“I think you will see some extreme activity in some markets,” said Doug Porter, chief economist with Bank of Montreal, referring to the red hot Toronto and Vancouver markets. The new rules take effect Feb. 15, 2016.
Ottawa is upping the minimum down payment for government-backed loans from five per cent to 10 per cent on the portion of a home selling for more than $500,000, a sale price that is fairly common in Toronto and Vancouver where the average transaction easily exceeds that amount.
The mad dash scenario almost always plays itself out when mortgage rates rise as consumers who have locked in their rates rush to take advantage of the lower rate they have guaranteed. Porter said the effect of down payment changes may be even more pronounced, when you factor in current rates and the unseasonably warm weather.
Poor Teck Resources.
Double whammy. Producing coal (now worthless) and every month it receives a cash call in the mailbox for what, $200 million??, for the construction of the Fort Hills oil sands mine an hour north of where I type from in Ft. McM.
What a drag.
A one asset strategy. Commodities. Coal and oil sands.
“Harley Hutton’s great grandfather would make a two-day trek with a team of eight horses and two wagons to collect coal from the local mine. The fuel was used to heat the family’s farm house. Now, the 47-year-old rancher, the fourth generation of his family to farm just outside of Hanna, drives to the mine, loads up his grain truck, and is back with seven tonnes of coal in about two hours.”
Fortunately for Albertans, there are lots of outcrops of coal (and bitumen) along the river banks in Alberta that we can all resort to in order to cook our venison that we harvest every fall.
In fact, Bow City, just south of Brooks was touted as the next Pittsburgh. In about 1918. There was a massive speculative land rush there.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/how-the-collapse-of-coal-is-hitting-home-in-westerncanada/article27731329/
#150 Smoking Man on 12.11.15 at 10:15 pm
#137 mishuko on 12.11.15 at 9:17 pm
Smoking man, think we need to grab a drink next year.
….
Better do it quick. My damn family is plotting an intervention. The other night, we went total south Carolina trailer trash.
Older lad, in a fowl mood now that his marriage is over got hammered, I was hammered.
There was words, before I knew it, my mind snapped, I was back in the old Jr hockey playing days.
It was ugly.. he’s got a shinner and my lose tooth is missing.
My former drug addict son, now huge player in the rehab businesses came over for a talk tonight …Everyone on side except for me..
There out to get me help.
I’m a disciplined lush..high functioning.
I know I’m an alcoholic, and not ashamed.
I don’t want to rot away in a nursing home. I’ve made enough loot for all of them never to work a day in there life again..
Please family, let me self destruct with dignaty, and without grulling sobar back pain.
—–
Dude!
Smoking Man, are there any good websites out there that explain USDCAD contracts and the Forex thing you do? I’d like to learn but not end up in over my head.
#88 broader mind on 12.11.15 at 6:12 pm
What’s truly funny is the fact that I sold all my real estate holdings a year ago and I bought safe stuff (Cpd,Pff) thinking I was pretty smart. I’m guessing I was better off with the real estate.
////////////////////////////////////////////
Oh no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no no!
What are you bloody doing , I just took shit for four days from Doug in London for saying I’m glad I didn’t have any CPD.
Now when Big Ben wakes his ass up he’s gonna tell you that your a moron and to buy more because it’s on sale.
You know what ,stupidity is on sale this time of year too,but I ain’t buying any of that.
By the way don’t second guess yourself you did the right thing at the right time for you.
Darn, they’re serving the peanuts with a whiff of crow at the gallery tonight. We’ll see if they serve the full crow plate next week with the rates. Might as well go get that loose tooth extracted by a random dude, then ;)
A cheap car in Alberta? Best looking coupe ever made
Click my name for Kijiji link. Price reduced natch.
BMW/ BBS rims worth price of admission:
I guess we will see what diff this make in yvr and 416 if any. I can’t see how anyone who buys a $999K property and needs $75K down under the new rules couldn’t come up with the extra $25K. That is a paltry amount of money or should be for any household that could service a mortgage of up to $949K under the former minimum down. Seems a joke really. How can you suggest the new finance minister would be getting his ass chewed off for such a puny change.
Hey, Smoking Man. If you’ve made so much money and you are so passionate about the economy and investments, why drink?
Usually drunks have lots their passion and are broke. So cheer up, quit drinking, live longer life, have more “I told you so” moments.
#99 bram on 12.11.15 at 6:47 pm
I thought everyone was mourning the horrible state of our manufacturing base?
I say: on to 50¢ CAD, which the government could help along by lowering interest, not increasing.
work more and have less? I think there are better ways to be competitive.
At #128: Tony… Oh. My. Gawd. Please stop. Just stop. For fuckity sake, Obama isn’t running for office again. He legally cannot, proving once again that you just shoot from the hip and make shit up as you go along. Do you even know who is running for office, beside the shit show of clowns on the right? The U.S. has this little thing called “term limits,” unlike Canada, for its highest holding office, the Presidency. It cannot exceed two terms of four years each. Where in the hell do you come up with this stuff? Do you love under a rock? Are you really this stupid? I am truly perplexed. Do you know how to read a news publication, little buddy?
Rantings of a successful stock picker,
“and stand ready to increase my allocation to the precious metals sector as it appears that we are getting to the end of this correction in the price. The level of outperformance of the low cost producers over the last year is certainly a good indication that the smart money is already positioning itself for the rebound. When we get the buy signal I look forward to adding to this highly unloved sector. I have identified other gems in the industry with the same criteria; low cost producers with great management in geopolitically safe areas. Furthermore, sooner or later the imbalance between the insatiable global demand for physical gold and silver versus a declining paper price will correct and the producers will be the main beneficiaries. ”
Comments anyone? Last sentence of particular value.
Smoking Man,
Just so you know, I quickly scroll on past every one of your posts.
You sound (and write) like an idiot.
Garth – In general, you say this is a big deal. We shall see. In the past, after every rule set, creative solutions have been established.
Tal says this will have nil impact in Vancouver and Toronto. What is your thought?
(Tals’ employer also says mortgages)
Another announcement, this time by the OSFI, that just flew under the radar. Regulatory capital requirements for mortgages will be increasing:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/osfi-mortgage-rules-1.3361000
What this practically means is that mortgage rates are likely going to rise independent of BoC policy action or “the bond market”. As banks will have to commit more capital to holding them.
I predicted this quite a while ago. Looks like its coming true as the recognition sets in that Canada’s housing loan market is a lot riskier than we’re all being told.
Flag 183 for profanity (funny though).
You must be at a Christmas party, no smarty pants replies.
My apologies to “osfi”, I didn’t see his/her comment and looks like I got beaten to it.
Any inside information or rumors on the Liberals plans to tackle the foreign buyer issue next?
#123 Smoking Man
“Any currency trader here want to predict where the Loonie stops bleeding?
I’m going to say 66.6 cents.”
I’m not a currency trader, but given where the loonie was 13 to 15 years ago before it began its run up to parity+ with the U.S. greenback, I’ll hazard a guess and say it could go back down to $0.62 or lower, where it was back then. Given the decline/declining economic conditions in the country since that time (e.g. oil price in the $30’s; major and ongoing loss of manufacturing; taxes going up; aging population, increasing health and long-term care costs; etc.), and the Libs back in charge and on a spending spree, I wonder if it won’t go well below $0.60?
It will be interesting to see how much the Bank of Canada will have to jack up interest rates (when the time comes) to prop up the loonie and by how much.
(Caution: Do not try this at home. Test performed on a closed course by professional driver. Your mileage may vary).
Is the bank going have to pay a deductable if the owner defaults on their loans.
When is that going to happen
#99 bram on 12.11.15 at 6:47 pm
Why are people so anxious to keep the CAD high?
A 70¢ CAD will help our economy:
Canadians stop buying expensive imports, and will buy local instead.
This is a double whammy for Canadian corporations:
1) They will sell more to the internal market, as Canadians cannot afford the US products.
2) They will sell more to the international markets, as Americans will get a bargain when they buy Canadian.
I thought everyone was mourning the horrible state of our manufacturing base?
I say: on to 50¢ CAD, which the government could help along by lowering interest, not increasing.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Canada does not “make anything” local to sell. If they did, I would buy it. I always try to.
But I get pretty pissed off especially in the food industry where it seems the closer to home the food is, the more expensive it is…..12 bucks for a tiny tiny brick of cheese from the local cheese maker. But yet a giant block of Blue from Denmark…..6 bucks. Only in Kanata…..
#123 Smoking Man
Oops. Sorry Smokey. My last post should have been a reply to #24. I thought his/her forecast of a 66.6 cent buck was yours, but I see you’ve already predicted < $0.60.
Yeah, I sort of think $0.50 to $0.60 might be about right. And if it does go that low, I have my doubts that it will be enough of a compelling reason for Canadian manufacturing to recover to any significant amount. I think it will take more than a cheap currency to convince businesses, investors, etc. to set up shop (again) in our country. With increasing taxes, carbon taxes, electricity costs (Ontario), etc. – why would they, especially if manufacturing will be mostly automated and the people with the technical smarts leave the country (again) to avoid the higher taxes and living costs?
#107 Patrick on 12.11.15 at 7:14 pm
I want freedom first to mc my wedding. it’d be hilarious.
////////////////////////////////////////
No offence, but I think he’d rather mc your divorce.
“And did I mention 36,000 lost jobs last month, a hike in the unemployment rate or the TSX losing 12% this year?”
—————————————————————–
This remains puzzling in the Canadian economy. I understand the continual contraction especially the resource sector. The part which is confusing people aged 65 and over now exceed those below 15 years of age which recently occurred. You would think there would be many people retiring and leaving the work force creating a demand for workers. The 65 and over still buy food and retail products. The media has claimed for years jobs should start to exceed demand based on the older generation leaving the workforce. Is there too much immigration especially in an economy in contraction; though very important but maybe needs to be reduced during these times especially with many “idle and not working” highly educated young people? If all these people are retiring and Canada’s population is becoming older, will this situation continue to get worse with no job creation or better? Lots of variables, as commodities/resources are big part of the situation but you just have to look south of the border, and see how much more that economy is diversified with more jobs at present.
RE:
Trump is only popular because the herd likes trashy reality TV. When push comes to shove, Trump is the best thing that has happened to the Democrats.
RE:
Buy the ETFs in the quantities that keep your balanced portfolio balanced. Yes, it’s boring, but boring makes money while excitement loses money.
All my stuff is unhedged which gives me currency diversification.
#53 Darryl
(Where’s your other brother, “Daryl”?)
‘You gotta move these levers slowly, to prevent a panic. The grocery store doesn’t announce over the PA that you are LOCKED IN THE STORE… rather, they say “..we are closing in 15 minutes.” ‘
Nah. I think they should just do it overnight without saying a word. Reminds me of a story (don’t know if it’s true) about how one of the Big Three auto manufacturers closed one of their plants: there was a fire drill and when all the workers had left the plant during the drill, Security came around and locked the doors and told them “Sorry boys. Plant’s closed”.
Housing is just another commodity in a bubble. Look at oil, went from $150 to $35 in 2008, $100 to $35 this year and still dropping.
Housing is in a 30 year bubble, when it pops it will be fierce.
Re #73 Gabby Truman
I know our dollar is depreciating quickly but your math is a little off. You said it costs an American less than 600k USD to buy a 1 million dollar (Cdn) home in Vancouver ? The US/ Canadian dollar Friday close was 1.3742 , so inversely it costs an American 72.7696 ¢ to buy 1 Canadian dollar or $727,696 USD to buy 1 million Cdn. When you add the common 2.5% currency exchange rate that banks charge , it then costs 74.5888 ¢ US for an American to buy 1 Cdn dollar or $745,888.00 USD to buy a 1 million dollar(Cdn) home. So our dollar is currently not quite as bad as you previously stated , but the way it is going we could be at your less than 600k figure sooner than later. Cheers.
#148 Frank R on 12.11.15 at 10:01 pm
“TORONTO — The Canadian Bankers Association warned the former Conservative government that a proposal to have banks shoulder more of the risk associated with home mortgage loans could hurt the country’s financial stability.”
READ … RISK OF LOSING BONUS MONEY! Bankers are self centered Pricks!
To #46 OXI in GREECE
The illegal money (as you put it) is not buying up all the Vancouver RE, only the million plus ones as they have been doing for some years now. This will probably subside somewhat now that offshore buyers have found some American cities desirable and less expensive if that is a factor in their decision making. What Vancouver will miss then is more money going into its economy if the buyers and their families actually remained in the country but as we all know that is up for debate.
My wife just got a job. $400k a year (health care). We cannot afford a house in Vancouver so we are likely moving to Calgary.
Go Flames?
#183 The American… Thanks for the detailed lesson, very knowledgeable you are. Is Obama Republican or Conservative?
I’m also watching the exchange rates. Currently $2.09 Cdn for £1 GBP. That is a 28% drop in the UK favour since the start of 2015.
If it goes to $2.25 then we will think seriously about a Canadian home in the Kingston area for the summer months rather than our current thinking of a Florida home for the winter months. Can always go to Vietnam for the winter.
Just been on a Remax site and for £225,000 you can get a 4 bed rancher, with pool on the waterfront. This only buys a 2 bed condo here in the South of England! Add in a few months of airbnb income and you have a free house. Worth thinking about.
#176 tkid on 12.11.15 at 11:56 pm
Smoking Man, are there any good websites out there that explain USDCAD contracts and the Forex thing you do? I’d like to learn but not end up in over my head.
———————
If you’re a novice trying to learn currency trading from the ground up, start off with babypips school. Just do a google search.
This shit is not for the faint of heart though, especially if you’re trying to make real money and not wasting your time with chump change. First go to Canada’s Wonderland and ride the most badass rollercoaster there. If you’re screaming like an 8 yr old girl, Forex is not for you. If you’re yelling like a 28 yr old hockey player trying to maintain his composure next to his 23 yr old nubile blonde bombshell of a girlfriend, Forex is not for you.
If you’re sitting through the entire ride with a straight face as though you’re on the subway on your morning commute as you leaf through the latest Harry Potter novel, then you might be a candidate for Forex.
Next step, after reading up on the basics, is to open a demo account with a reputable broker who offers decent leverage (200:1 or more, or else you might as well waste your time trading bank equities on the TSX — notice I wrote “trading”, not “investing”) and spend the next 2 years honing your skills.
Then open a decent sized live account with enough capital that you don’t get margined out every time your place a bet worth placing.
Then be sure to follow Smoking Man’s advice by incorporating batman and camel toe into your entry and exit strategies.
Then wait for BoC, Fed, oil, NFP and other releases and start shopping for Ferraris or picking a casino to blow it all.
#150 Smoking Man on 12.11.15 at 10:15 pm
#137 mishuko on 12.11.15 at 9:17 pm
Smoking man, think we need to grab a drink next year.
….
Better do it quick. My damn family is plotting an intervention. The other night, we went total south Carolina trailer trash.
Older lad, in a fowl mood now that his marriage is over got hammered, I was hammered.
There was words, before I knew it, my mind snapped, I was back in the old Jr hockey playing days.
It was ugly.. he’s got a shinner and my lose tooth is missing.
My former drug addict son, now huge player in the rehab businesses came over for a talk tonight …Everyone on side except for me..
There out to get me help.
I’m a disciplined lush..high functioning.
I know I’m an alcoholic, and not ashamed.
I don’t want to rot away in a nursing home. I’ve made enough loot for all of them never to work a day in there life again..
Please family, let me self destruct with dignaty, and without grulling sobar back pain.
============================
Jesus Christ, Smokey….I laughed so hard and loud I woke up my wife and newborn. She’s now rocking him back to sleep while cursing me….how the hell do you expect me to explain you to her tomorrow morning???
Apparently Tony is a moron.
I guess we will see what diff this make in yvr and 416 if any. I can’t see how anyone who buys a $999K property and needs $75K down under the new rules couldn’t come up with the extra $25K. That is a paltry amount of money or should be for any household that could service a mortgage of up to $949K under the former minimum down. Seems a joke really. How can you suggest the new finance minister would be getting his ass chewed off for such a puny change.
This doesn’t have to stop someone entirely from making a purchase to have an effect. It can simply make them bid lower. For example, most people make purchases based off monthly cost. Can I afford a certain mortgage payment? So given that they have a $X amount set aside for a down payment and a set monthyl income of $Y, they’ll give those number to their broker and he’ll say at today’s rate of Z% you can have a mortgage of $800K.
With today’s new down payment rules and tomorrows rate bump that same formula might allow for $775K. Are they still going to buy a place? Of course they’re house horny! However they’re not going to offer as much. Multiply that against 10’s of thousands and suddenly your housing prices aren’t getting higher and higher. In fact they may take a modest hit.
Then after a couple month of no “record home price in Van/Tor” headlines, the people who were just playing the buy low, sell high investment game start saying “it’s been a good run, maybe I should cash out now”. That’s when the fun begins.
It takes time. Just like oil prices have been low for a year and Calgary is just starting to see some loosening.
Most speculator condos even in the GVRD are still under half a million, so this legislation will pretty much have no effect whatsoever nationwide, other than briefly goosing more dumb buyers to jump in before it goes into effect.
It’s just PR so if/when the housing market crashes, the govt. can say they did something.
To #73 Gabby Truman
Now you see why lower and lower interest rates and a sick society that loves debt especially low mortgage rates is such a scam.
You guys were all cheering for the last 20 years when interest rates kept falling and falling.
Now, I hope that everyone gets screwed like this week, stock markets, Canadian dollar and all those that now complain about groceries and other imported items going up.
Keep voting Liberal so they can keep taxing you to death and electricity overpaying by $37 billion in just Ontario give you a 55 cents Canadian dollar.
Canadians are such fools believing that low interest rates and climate change are in their best interest.
Agree with what you say about RE > $1 million in YVR however:
$600K home DP increases by $5K (a 16.7% increase, $30K to $35K).
$900K home DP increases by $20K (a 44.4% increase, $45K to $65K).
B.C.R.E.A., states about 35 per cent of Metro Vancouver homes sell for between $500,000 and $1-million.
Who knows what the DP increases will do to 35% of the market? Then add to that money will cost more if Garth is correct (fixed mortgage rates increase if US Fed rate increases).
Interesting times indeed.
#176 tkid on 12.11.15 at 11:56 pm
fyi, zulutrade… if you just want to learn, this one tracks signals of performers so you can benefit from other traders, and they go in your acct. You can try trades on your own. Free $10k demo online. You can set up sells in increments and lever pips. Staircase buys, limits and watch greens light up like a flagpole. All currencies. Go live if you’re confident. It bogs in high traffic so don’t leave yourself in a do or die. Tutorial on youtube.
I’m sure SmokingMan will advise you more eloquently to the appropriate introductory platform. Your first name isn’t Justin by chance?
A gift to bankers, from the supreme leader, with an extra $25k cash downy upfront (at various increments) providing more fraction for fractional opportunities, and then the canuck is tapped. No new designer furniture for the glorious take possession party. Unless, of course, one is red bagging the whole declaration process anyway.
How about this one on CNBC – questioning whether the Fed can raise rates due to emerging market currencies.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/12/11/art-cashin-we-could-be-in-trouble.htm
If the Fed doesn’t raise rates, Garth would you acknowledge that not all is well in the global financial markets? The US is experiencing no inflation, their GDP is 2%, and a stronger US dollar is only going to create significant headwinds in a global economy that is not doing well. The fact remains that the governments globally have way too much debt for the relative low GDP growth rate that any increase in interest rates would create interest payments that are not sustainable.
Canada short trade is out performing. Maintain or add to shorts, TSX down over 12% in 2015, Home Capital, Genworth Financial, Alaris Royalty all heading lower. I smell capital raise in the near future for these collapsing negative equity companies.
Enz
#197 kommykim on 12.12.15 at 2:16 am
RE:
#72 Smoking Man on 12.11.15 at 4:45 pm
The herd is awake. Trump polling numbers prove it
Trump is only popular because the herd likes trashy reality TV. When push comes to shove, Trump is the best thing that has happened to the Democrats.
………………………………………..
I don’t expect a Cultural Marxist tree hugging commie like you to understand what’s going on out there with the Herd.
People are worn down and tired of having to choose words carefully. “Shit damn, I was thinking Happy Holidays, but said Merry Christmas by accident, damn I’m going to be publicly shamed now.”
You know shit like that. The only thing you bully liberals are good at is ganging up on people, mobbing them.
Look at this Ontario tax payer funded man hating Ad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GnRsUqF5G70
I will never in my life apologizing for looking at an attractive woman’s ass. Mother nature put those thoughts into my head to insure the survival of our species.
As much as you cultural Nazi’s try and distort thought, following an agenda by radical activist man haters, your programming will lose to mother nature.
Back lash is immanent.
Trump has tapped into the herds survival instinct. He’s going to be president if he doesn’t get assassinated.
Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics.
The OSFI rules will tkae years to hash out and be implemented. Housig will have long turned over by then.
“Then we have the Fed. The odds Friday were 76% that the US central bank will begin tightening its monetary policy on Wednesday afternoon. ”
The odds of the dumb money is 76%.
What is strange is the massive long position of the commercial traders on The Futures Exchange for the 2 year and 5 year Treasury notes. Should the FED not rais rates, these bonds will jump and the commercials will have a massive payout. They are rarely wrong in the medium term.
Having said that, if they do not raise, the FEDs credibility goes t zero. As they are in the confidence game, they must follow through with a raise after telegraphing it repeatedly.
@#204 Caddywack
“My wife just got a job. $400k a year (health care). We cannot afford a house in Vancouver so we are likely moving to Calgary”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Why does Calgary need a brain surgeon?
@#150 Smoking Man
“I’ve made enough loot for all of them never to work a day in there life again..”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Even billionaires can be committed to the loony bin.
Join the mormons.
The bodyguards dont let anyone near you.
It worked for Howard Hughes.
Just remember to keep lots of empty gallon jars around for those moments when your bladder reaches its “tipping” point.
#205 Darryl
#183 The American… Thanks for the detailed lesson, very knowledgeable you are. Is Obama Republican or Conservative?
WWWWWWWhat???
I do hope you are joking with that statement.
Anyways, I just updated my SolidWorks software yesterday and it was priced in USD. So that being said, the exchange rate sure did kick the crap out of my discount, but I still figure it will be cheaper to have purchased yesterday then next friday.
Looking forward to next weeks news to see if the Fed will pull the trigger on their rate increase, and if they do can they maintain it will be the bigger question.
Either way I’m prepared
#204 Chaddywack on 12.12.15 at 3:34 am
My wife just got a job. $400k a year (health care). We cannot afford a house in Vancouver so we are likely moving to Calgary.
Go Flames?
–/-/
Houses going down in oilberta. You can buy my house!
Well, to answer the question posed earlier……I trade currency almost daily.
IMHO we’re going to see the return of a .65 cent dollar and it’s going to stay that way as long as the government can keep it there.
It’s a hidden form of currency controls…….plain and simple.
#176 tkid
I have been currency trading for six years now but not the Forex thing. Forex is unregulated and is a scam. I don’t know anybody that makes money on Forex. The only people making money from Forex are the people who find people to sign up for Forex. That is how they make money. If you want to make money from currency trading, do it the old fashion way. First, find a bank that gives a good exchange rate. Stay away from the big banks. I have an account with the Steinbach Credit in Winnipeg. Their exchange rates are .0065 off a live rate. Open an US bank account and and transfer money in and out between your Cdn account. That is the safe way to make money. Greed will get you every time.
@183 The American
Re: Tony- I know right! Doesn’t Tony know that the last time a US Prez had more than two terms was when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor!
Sheesh!
Listening to Newstalk on QR77 yesterday in Calgary. On the break an ad comes on for flipping houses in Calgary! Seriously???
http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/osfi-takes-aim-at-banks-residential-mortgage-capital-requirements-to-keep-pace-with-rising-house-prices-and-household-debt
TORONTO Canada’s top banking regulator is planning to change the amount of capital banks must hold against residential mortgages to keep up with the rapid rise in house prices and highly leveraged buyers in some markets.
Observers said the move, together with an announcement Friday by the federal government to tweak house downpayments, could help cool Canada’s hot housing market. If the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions requires banks to hold additional capital against mortgage loans, it will dampen enthusiasm for offering those loans or potentially force banks to charge more for them, said one longtime industry observer.
“These [combined] actions are designed to slow new mortgage volumes, and we believe they will be successful with respect to that objective,” Paul Holden, an analyst at CIBC World Markets Inc., said in a note to clients.
At #205: Darryl, Obama is certainly not CONservative/republiCON. He is a moderately liberal Democrat.
The canadian people are being raped by the inaction of the central bank and speculators to destroy our currency. There is no reason for CAD to plummet as it has. Our wealth and prosperity is being destroyed by the devaluing of CAD. Everything is going up in price…people are now not able to buy beef of all things as it keeps climbing in price. The PPP of CAD is 0.85 USD and we should leg it to this to establish calm and not this extreme under valuation that threatens all that savers have worked hard for!
#248 Ronaldo on 12.11.15 at 3:26 pm
#240 IHCDT9
”Yep, probably going to see the 520K’s go to 499, and the 480K’s go to 499. I think it’s a good number for the GTAs and Vans of Canada – next to nothing less than 500K there to start with.”
Exactly.
////////////////////////////////////////
Really? Really??
You think a $520k house will drop to $499k because of the change.
Are you really that gullible?
Lets do something called math to see what the difference would be for the minimum down payment before and after the change and you tell me if you still believe what you originally wrote.
Before $520k house needed min $26k down.
After $520k house will need min $27k down.
So, do you still think the seller will be forced to drop his pants to $499k?
IHCDT9, I thought you were smarter than this.
oops!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-10/billions-of-barrels-of-oil-vanish-in-a-puff-of-accounting-smoke
Correct link. (you missed the “L” at the end Wake Up!)
I emailed my local Red lefty with displeasure over TFSA neutering. Rich Reds and Party Faithful is Kanada.
All eyes on CPD and Fed next week – for Jan. TFSA season.
#185 Boombust on 12.12.15 at 12:57 am
Smoking Man,
Just so you know, I quickly scroll on past every one of your posts.
You sound (and write) like an idiot
….
Obviously a liberal…
Oilers are gaining momentum. 5 wins in a row. The playoffs are within reach. Last time Oilers were winning 1981-1990 the economy was pretzelled. There may be a link!
Many homes listed for December in Edmonton and area. Went for drive. People are in denial stage. Xmas will be quiet.
Parents moved out of there home they sold in November. Recieved cheque, all cleared. Rolled $$$ into USD. Mother loosing her mind because she has no home. Is this normal the insanity of not owning a home??? Told parents to sell home in Palm Springs. They are considering.
PB43
Will it ever come to pass that sellers will be offering to cover closing costs so that the buyers will be eligible to qualify for CHMC insurance.
Lets pretend we have a buyer who has amassed $50,000 to cover down payment and land transfer tax (LTT). And for arguments sake let us assume LTT is $12,000.
Pre Feb 15- Buyer has $38,000 for a down payment and is CHMC eligible on a house up to $760,000.
Post Feb 15- Buyer has $38,000 for a down payment and is CHMC eligible on a house up to only $630,000.
So can not the buyer approach the seller and offer an additional $12,000 above and beyond the sale price on the condition the seller will reimburse the buyer $12,000 at time of closing.
For instance buyer offers $750,000 for house selling for $738,000.
In this scenario the buyer will have earmarked $50,000 for a down payment knowing the seller will in effect be covering the $12,000 LTT and will still be CHMC eligible up to $750,000.
From what I am led to believe this practice is not uncommon in the USA (American will know better).
Magnate Jimmy is betting on coal.
Always wondered why the call them magnets.
Attracting money, maybe?
#196 Whitehorn
“The media has claimed for years jobs should start to exceed demand based on the older generation leaving the workforce”
———
They’re not leaving. They all appear to be working at Home Depot from what I can see.
Loads of wrinklies with no pension i suspect.
I have the urge everytime I’m served by a Home Depot wrinklie to ask ‘WTF are you here?…retire already!’
#231 Godth on 12.12.15 at 12:15 pm
oops!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-10/billions-of-barrels-of-oil-vanish-in-a-puff-of-accounting-smoke
————-
Surely you could find some thing more depressing than that. Not up to your usual standards!
I’m wondering if the smiling babes realize the full implications of what they were so cutely debating, and how this applies to just about all assumptions upon which promises were made. Not so much in-your-face apocalypse but has a lot of potential. :)
#239 Steerage Bilge on 12.12.15 at 1:18 pm
No problem! One of the most popular games atm is called Fallout 4, so you can still live in a fantasy while preparing for the future! Enjoy!
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/dec/11/fallout-4-guide-how-to-build-perfect-settlement
Apparently the young have caught on.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=acLW1vFO-2Q
#193 OXI in GREECE on 12.12.15 at 1:53 am
Canada does not “make anything” local to sell. If they did, I would buy it. I always try to.
Two points:
1) A 50¢ cad will create a large void: imports get so expensive, that Canadian start ups have a much easier time getting big fat profit margins. Cash poor Canadians that have stopped buying imports will create pent-up demand, ready for the take.
2) Canadians will holiday in Niagara, Vancouver Island, Canadian Rockies, Drumheller, whathaveyou. And They will NOT go to Hawaii or Paris because the flight and hotel will be too expensive.
Bram
So I have been following this blog for years. I am not going to agree or disagree; but my put own situation up for debate.
Basically, since I started reading this blog I bought and sold two houses and I am now renting.
After commissions I have $350,000. I was living mortgage free. So here’s the test. Do I continue investing and renting or buy and mortgage.
There are lots of variables but lets keep it simple. I rent for $2,300 a month. I can buy the same condo for $400.000. I can put any amount down, but a $250,000 mortgage is about $1,300 a month plus taxes and condo. fees nets me 2.000 a month.
So its cheaper to buy with a mortgage. Makes simple logic to me.
Nnow Garth always states you can make 7% with a balanced portfolio. Wrong. That’s dividends and capital appreciation. I have the whole $350,000 in the stock market and the roller coaster ride is not for sissies. However I bought ETF and dividend paying stocks, and yes I made an average of 4-5% a month in dividends. Capital appreciation since the summer is $2,000.
My point is do the math. It is still cheaper for me to buy a condo than rent and Invest. Yes you can through all kinds of facts and figures, bottom line I can buy a condo and live in it for 30 years or pay rent for 30 years. You do the math and tell me what is the best thing to do. Oh yes I can put down any amount I just pick $250,000. for simple math. Good Luck out there It a wild ride to the top!
#217 Smoking Man
“Look at this Ontario tax payer funded man hating Ad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GnRsUqF5G70
I will never in my life apologizing for looking at an attractive woman’s ass. Mother nature put those thoughts into my head to insure the survival of our species.”
SM, I totally agree with about you not apologizing for ogling attractive women, but the things those people are saying in the video are not about reproduction or species survival. They’re all power plays aimed at cutting down their targets.
Of course, the cultural Marxists are all about making power plays, too. So maybe that’s your point… they’re hypocrites. I guess it would have been nice if you picked a better example.
That’s it, better examples please! This is actually an important topic. I’m getting really sick of other people trying to tell me what to do.
Sorry the amounts got deleted.
I made about 4% average dividends per month and $2,000 capital appreciation, and on Monday before the pull back I was up $8,000 and in August I was down $15,000. So wild swings, but the dividends are coming in!
#50 Forest Lawn Calgary on 12.11.15 at 3:14 pm
Can you please explain why oil at $35/barrel is so critical now, when it wasnt pre 2004? Oil only hit $50/barrel in 2004, so why is there such a panic? Didnt oil operations run at less than $50 for decades?
Or is it just pure greed that has fueled the companies laying off the loyal workers?
What exactly is the deal?
_______________——————
The deal is, many if not most of the new oil patch / fracking companies, took out operating/expansion loans on the ASSumption that oil would forever stay above 80$$$ per barrel.
Not unlike the ASSumption that real estate only goes up, which it does till it doesn’t .
Wait till oil hits 28$ per barrel, then the bloodletting will shift into high gear .
As Hon. GT has been suggesting, the downturn in Alberta’s oil patch is hitting folks coast to coast. Jeffrey Simpson provides some analysis.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/alberta-the-rest-of-canada-feels-your-pain/article27725234/
What we must do here in Kommunist Kanada?:
Klog the gears in the mechanisms that oppress us.
Appeal every parking, speeding and traffic ticket; appeal property assessments. Make the sunshine list guaranteed job servants work. Let them know there are concequences – that a guaranteed raise not for good effort but for elitism is work.
Not happy? Engage every ombudsman and human rights tribunal. Act like a domestic refugee. Email your MP. The system will bog down, however, it will create new positions for your kids to fill. It’s not like they’ll find work in private sector. That’s like soo 1990s.
#241 Godth on 12.12.15 at 1:52 pm
#239 Steerage Bilge on 12.12.15 at 1:18 pm
No problem! One of the most popular games atm is called Fallout 4, so you can still live in a fantasy while preparing for the future! Enjoy!
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/dec/11/fallout-4-guide-how-to-build-perfect-settlement
Apparently the young have caught on.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=acLW1vFO-2Q
——–
I knew you could do it. Good stuff!!
…”but one I know Stephen Harper personally squished – believing house porn was keeping the economy chugging”….
They all think that.
If they would be serious, they would have begin by rising the down payment for houses below 500k.
Most people buy below 500K (except of course Vancouver/Toronto).
#207, 213, 224, thank you.
#167 bdy sktrn on 12.11.15 at 11:20 pm
———————
“gas at 2.00 to 2.05/gal today in bellingham
20% drop over a few weeks…”
Cheapest gas yesterday (whole Bellingham) 2.37 btw. It’s been around $2.30~2.40 for weeks now.
Must be really desperate to drive 30-40km from east van to save few bucks. Oh ya you rent out your bsmt too because you feel lonely without the company of strangers lol
As for the few listings in east van – who in the right mind would want to live in the armpit (e. Van), never mind the crackshacks (even if you paid people to live there).
.
#199 Herf on 12.12.15 at 2:25 am
#53 Darryl
(Where’s your other brother, “Daryl”?)
——————————————————————
Funny that you would say that Herf.
There are two of us here … I’m not sure if there is a Larry .
#238
Perhaps the reason may be that it costs ~$10,000 to play golf in Costa Rica over the winter.
#193 OXI in GREECE on 12.12.15 at 1:53 am
Canada does not “make anything” local to sell. If they did, I would buy it. I always try to.
Two points:
1) A 50¢ cad will create a large void: imports get so expensive, that Canadian start ups have a much easier time getting big fat profit margins. Cash poor Canadians that have stopped buying imports will create pent-up demand, ready for the take.
*******************************
Where do you get this notion that agriculture is somehow a communist concept?
Canada’s agro producers get more revenue from their sales in the US than in Canada. Except for those who are protected by the commie boards.
Food prices in Canada will go only one direction and that is up, up and away.
Our growing season is too short, even on Vancouver Island.
#229
“There is no reason for CAD to plummet as it has.”
I think it’s related to the tanking Canadian oil economy.
Rising down payment for 99% of those buying a house below 500 k is almost impossible, they don’t have 10% in cash(but it is those peoples having full debt).
Rising down payment for houses who cost more….it’s not a problem, those buying them have the cash (even if it’s 20% rising).
That’s it. Paris is a done deal.
Surprisingly, the world’s leaders have adopted an even more aggressive stance than expected, a goal of closer to 1.5 degrees warming, not 2.
And sure, no deal is perfect, and this one has flaws and potential problems like all others.
But it has happened. A year ago, even less, most of the climate change deniers and general morons, here and elsewhere, said that an agreement would never happen.
But it did. And however imperfect, it won’t be undone, it will just get stronger and more enforced.
And now come the consequences.
Old Alberta? The plug has been pulled on you, and a Do-Not-Resuscitate order has been given, internationally, federally and provincially.
The rest of Canada should watch Alberta carefully. The personal attacks and threats against Notley are useless and retarded distractions. With every day these continue, Albertans merely dig themselves a deeper grave to curl up in.
This province must revolutionize its economy bravely and quickly. This will be painful. Forty years of self-dealing, stupid neo-conservative governance has left the cupboard bare, with no savings, no Plan B.
Job losses have barely started. Financial stress too.
Homes will collapse in price far more than even the worst most of us can imagine. There is currently nothing on the horizon that might stop even a 90% price crash over the next few years, by about 2020.
But there is hope. We must accept the truth, and embrace the future. We must stop blaming a government in power for such a short time, and look at what we can learn from decades of negligence that came before. And then move on.
Can Alberta do it?
The clock is now ticking, Albertans……
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2015/dec/12/paris-climate-talks-francois-hollande-to-join-summit-as-final-draft-published-live
Hey smoky, real easy to quit drinking, my buddy had the same problem as you, he just cuts his arm open and pours it in now! Try it! Let me know how it works out!
#72 Smoking Man on 12.11.15 at 4:45 pm
Look at this Ontario tax payer funded man hating Ad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GnRsUqF5G70
I will never in my life apologizing for looking at an attractive woman’s ass. Mother nature put those thoughts into my head to insure the survival of our species.
—————————————————————
I feel the same way… This reminds me of the 70’s rampant White male bashing.
It didn’t take on me. Just made me bitter.
This video is an attempt to regulate bad manners.
They should have taught manners in elementary school.
In fact they should have a separate course up to grade 12 based on Emily Post.
People don’t even know how use a public toilet in this country.
#251 Not really on 12.12.15 at 3:06 pm
#167 bdy sktrn on 12.11.15 at 11:20 pm
———————
Cheapest gas yesterday (whole Bellingham) 2.37 btw. It’s been around $2.30~2.40 for weeks now.
———————–
you really do make yourself look life an ignorant fool when you show us all how you either don’t know, or refuse, to google the crap that comes out of your mouth!
1.99 to 2.05 right now you fool.
update
Costco
4299 Guide Meridian St near Kellogg Rd
Bellingham
GB_Direct
1 hour ago
update
Meridian Liquor Store
4209 Meridian St near Kellogg Rd
Bellingham
gill23ph
16 hours ago
update
Safeway
1189 E Sunset Dr & James Street Rd
Bellingham
greggshill
37 minutes ago
update
Fred Meyer
800 Lakeway Dr & Lincoln St
Bellingham
greggshill
17 hours ago
update
Meridian Super Mart
4130 Meridian St near Bakerview Rd
Bellingham
havi137
21 hours ago
update
Fred Meyer
1225 W Bakerview Rd & Airport Dr
Bellingham
angelmom44
28 hours ago
update
ARCO
3002 Old Fairhaven Pkwy & 30th St
Bellingham
orino999
17 hours ago
#237 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.12.15 at 1:01 pm
”Magnate Jimmy is betting on coal.”
He’d better be, he owns a big stake in Westshore.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/vancouver-magnate-bets-on-coal-exports-westshore-terminals/article27522884/
Probably loading up on Canfor shares as well.
“So, do you still think the seller will be forced to drop his pants to $499k?”
In Calgary, seller pants will soon be around their ankles. This change may not have a big effect everywhere but Calgary will be ground zero. Again. NEP 2 from PET 2. Full circle. Alberta is screwed.
#251 Not really on 12.12.15 at 3:06 pm
#167 bdy sktrn on 12.11.15 at 11:20 pm
———————
Must be really desperate to drive 30-40km from east van to save few bucks.
—————————-
either that or i’m already going down to the acreage i picked up this summer to do some work .
(200k with norberts gambit changed to usd at 1.18 for 9.99 comissions and zero points – this blog saved me over 5k on that one move alone, and about 13k on ex rate since- thank you GF GT and dogs)
other savings this wknd
2xcartons -save $100
2x tequila – save $45
fill up – save $35
WA weed – save $0 but worth it not having to carry some down!
……
just a little bitter you are not pulling in 1200/mo for your basement with zero work and maybe 50/mo in costs? and yes i’m quite glad to have someone around on the wknd when i’m out of town at one of our cottages/acreages (i almost ever see her during the week but i do see the gang of 20something hotties that come over from time to time :)
enjoy your poverty.
DELETED
#187 Mark on 12.12.15 at 1:15 am
Another announcement, this time by the OSFI, that just flew under the radar. Regulatory capital requirements for mortgages will be increasing:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/osfi-mortgage-rules-1.3361000
Good find!
This under the radar news is more important that down payment regulation.
I bet it will do a lot more cooling of SFH in YVR than that paltry down-payment will. A 33ft tear down in my E-Van street sold in a week with $1.5M asking. Nobody in Van buys a house under 1M.
Bram
#19 Yitzhak Rabin on 12.10.15 at 7:18 pm
re; Your comments about “QE”
Please define and clarify what “QE” means to you. I would say that you have NO idea what your talking about, and your explanation of QE will exemplify that fact. (After all, you’ve been so horribly wrong about everything else!)
Please proceed…
Vending Machine Grows 20,000 Heads of Lettuce a Year Without Sunlight
urban farm revolution underground?
Two bomb shelter 100ft below tube tunnels becomes world’s first subterranean farm
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3143564/Growing-underground-Forgotten-World-War-Two-
bomb-shelter-100ft-tube-tunnels-world-s-subterranean-farm.html
World’s largest vertical farm planned for Newark, New Jersey
http://www.aerofarms.com/
AeroFarms, an urban agricultural company, has big plans to turn a defunct steel mill into a 70,000 square foot vertical farm in Newark, New Jersey. The facility is projected to cost $39 million USD and will provide greens and other produce to local New York and New Jersey communities. According to the builders, it will be the largest indoor vertical farm in the world.
Wow, can’t believe how many posters think that the changes to CMHC subprime mortgage insurance won’t make much of a difference. Canada’s RE marketplace, already over 2 years into decline, is absolutely and utterly reliant on people taking out low-grade forms of credit. As Garth points out repeatedely, huge numbers of buyers are only bringing the minimum downpayment to the table. This will immediately price even more of those buyers out, particularly in the $500-$1M segment — basically the only reasonably vibrant (and not already in significant decline) segment of the market remaining.
But the bigger point is the trend and the message. There is zero willingness to expand the CMHC’s subprime guarantee authority. The government realizes that, in this environment of RE declines, that the CMHC is becoming a huge liability. Yet they’re trying to balance their approach with the real fact that the CMHC is so dominant in the marketplace for subprime credit that they are, in effect, the market, and sudden moves risk systemic crisis.
IMHO, look for additional tweaks at the CMHC in the months and years to come. And rising retail mortgage rates even as the BoC cuts policy rates in response to the deflating Canadian economy, and soon, a significantly rising CAD$.
#252 Original Darryl
“There are two of us here … I’m not sure if there is a Larry .”
I didn’t know there were two of you here. When I saw the name, my thoughts harkened back to the last Bob Newhart show and I couldn’t resist – I was hoping someone would find it funny. I wasn’t sure about the spelling though (is “other brother Darryl”, “Daryl”, “Darryl”, “Darrel”, “Darril”, “Derril”, etc. ?). I suspect most of the millenials won’t get it.
“No wonder the banks are over 20% of the entire Canadian stock market.”
Try closer to 40% these days.
http://www.blackrock.com/ca/institutional/en/products/239832/ishares-sptsx-60-index-etf
#257 ALBERTASTROPHE on 12.12.15 at 3:45 pm
That’s it. Paris is a done deal.
Surprisingly, the world’s leaders have adopted an even more aggressive stance than expected, a goal of closer to 1.5 degrees warming, not 2.
And sure, no deal is perfect, and this one has flaws and potential problems like all others.
But it has happened. A year ago, even less, most of the climate change deniers and general morons, here and elsewhere, said that an agreement would never happen.
But it did. And however imperfect, it won’t be undone, it will just get stronger and more enforced.
And now come the consequences.
Old Alberta? The plug has been pulled on you, and a Do-Not-Resuscitate order has been given, internationally, federally and provincially.
The rest of Canada should watch Alberta carefully. The personal attacks and threats against Notley are useless and retarded distractions. With every day these continue, Albertans merely dig themselves a deeper grave to curl up in.
This province must revolutionize its economy bravely and quickly. This will be painful. Forty years of self-dealing, stupid neo-conservative governance has left the cupboard bare, with no savings, no Plan B.
Job losses have barely started. Financial stress too.
Homes will collapse in price far more than even the worst most of us can imagine. There is currently nothing on the horizon that might stop even a 90% price crash over the next few years, by about 2020.
But there is hope. We must accept the truth, and embrace the future. We must stop blaming a government in power for such a short time, and look at what we can learn from decades of negligence that came before. And then move on.
Can Alberta do it?
The clock is now ticking, Albertans……
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/live/2015/dec/12/paris-climate-talks-francois-hollande-to-join-summit-as-final-draft-published-live
——–
Hey dude. Want to buy my house? Gorgeous view of the Rockies. And you get harpo as a neighbour.
@Mark
Your Olanzapine order is ready for pick up.
#254 No debt on 12.12.15 at 3:46 pm
Hey smoky, real easy to quit drinking, my buddy had the same problem as you, he just cuts his arm open and pours it in now! Try it! Let me know how it works out!
——————-
in school i learned , supposedly, that alcohol absorbs easily through the eye. as in tipping a shot glass of vodka to your eye. never tried it though. seems inconvenient
or you could just shoot it in like the junkies do.
an ex good friend has fallen in to the bottle combined with psychological issues, it’s not pretty at all.
i dislike booze but my wife has some everyday , a glass or 2 at dinnertime, seems to work well for her.
just do that and smoke weed the rest of the time and you’ll be right as rain.
#272 Shoppers Drug Mart on 12.12.15 at 5:24 pm
@Mark
Your Olanzapine order is ready for pick up.
——————————-
what is olannzapine?
#267 jess on 12.12.15 at 4:46 pm
Vending Machine Grows 20,000 Heads of Lettuce a Year Without Sunlight
urban farm revolution underground?
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hmmm…. where have i heard that before?
https://www.biv.com/article/2015/5/city-vancouver-still-paying-failed-urban-farm/
City of Vancouver still paying for failed urban farm
A failed urban farm located in a downtown Vancouver parkade continues to be a costly headache to the City of Vancouver.
According to documents filed in a continuing lawsuit against the city, a greenhouse and equipment from the farm is still located in the parkade, over a year after the company operating the farm went bankrupt.
Alterrus and its subsidiary, Local Garden Vancouver, operated the vertical farm in the parkade. It used a system involving stacked trays that moved automatically “to maximize exposure to natural light,” according to court documents.
The business model for the farm involved selling pesticide-free greens and herbs to high-end restaurants.
Alterrus’ vertical farm on the top floor of a parkade at 535 Richards Street in 2012 | Dan Toulgoet, Vancouver Courier
At the time of its launch, Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson said the project showed “the innovative spirit in our city’s booming clean tech sector,” according to Business in Vancouver’s sister paper, the Vancouver Courier.
…
and then he did the equavilent of having a bonfire with 70,000 slick new $20bills of taxpayers money on this failed yet booming project
i do however, expect that some yanks and brits will take a better shot at this than the ‘green’ sponges of public funds around here.
#253 triplenet on 12.12.15 at 3:14 pm
#238
Perhaps the reason may be that it costs ~$10,000 to play golf in Costa Rica over the winter.
——————
???
just for green fees?
“@Mark
Your Olanzapine order is ready for pick up.
“
You ill? I had to Google what you were talking about, and it sure sounds like you are. My sympathies, but please do take your medicine. Get better soon!
#269 Herf on 12.12.15 at 5:05 pm
#252 Original Darryl
“There are two of us here … I’m not sure if there is a Larry .”
I didn’t know there were two of you here….. I suspect most of the millenials won’t get it.
—————–
they all looked like they desperately needed a shower .
And the vilification of cats continues with impunity.
H.P. Lovecraft on dogs and cats:
“Throw a stick, and the servile dog wheezes and pants and stumbles to bring it to you. Do the same with a cat, and he will eye you with coolly polite and somewhat bored amusement. And just as inferior people prefer the inferior animal which scampers excitedly because someone else wants something, so do superior people respect the superior animal which lives its own life and knows that the puerile stick-throwings of alien bipeds are none of its business and beneath its notice.”
#149 Drill Baby Drill on 12.11.15 at 10:08 pm
#111 Cowtown
Starvation ? Really ? Quit wishing for disasters at every turn. Your posts in general tend to reflect that. The smart way to go thru life is to adjust and make the best.
Calgary has always been boom and bust and always will. I have been thru 5 oil downturns in my career.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I’ve been through downturns since the late 70’s as well. But downplaying that people’s lives are being turned upside down and offering a hopey-changey thing is naive. Each recovery was a fight and it had nothing to do with putting on a happy face and everything to do with never surrendering. No magical thinking.
In contrast we have naive, deluded and disconnected leaders. The U.S President, our Prime Minister, Alberta’s Premier, and various Energy Ministers and Environment Ministers have all drunken deeply from the unicorn piss laced waters of the the climate change movement and are determined to make the situation far worse than it likely will be anyways.
Am I angry? Damn right. Doesn’t make me wrong though.
I can’t help but worry about my grandkids future. I actually want a reset that makes the 1930’s seem mild. Todays ignorant generation has created the mess and we should pick up the tab.
http://mobile.wnd.com/2015/12/climate-criminal-blows-whistle-its-just-about-the-money/
on 12.12.15 at 5:47 pm
“@Mark
Your Olanzapine order is ready for pick up.
“
You ill? I had to Google what you were talking about, and it sure sounds like you are. My sympathies, but please do take your medicine. Get better soon! on 12.12.15 at 5:47 pm
“@Mark
Your Olanzapine order is ready for pick up.
“
You ill? I had to Google what you were talking about, and it sure sounds like you are. My sympathies, but please do take your medicine. Get better soon!
////////////////////////////////////////////
Close very close,you are getting better with your sarcasm but you had the chance to bitch slap someone and you let them off with a wet willy.
….”The Canadian dollar is just one of many major currencies that has lost a huge amount of value this year (15%).
The Japanese yen has lost 16% against the U.S. dollar over the past year…the euro has lost 18%…the Australian dollar has lost 19%…the Mexican peso has lost 22%…and the Brazilian real is down 39%”…..
Those countries (Japan, Argentina, Europe..etc..) doesn’t have petrol/oil (petro dollar) and the lost value too.
Looks like it’s a normality/trend now.
So they have a deal in Paris. Now, as I have said here before, I see the pollution in cities that makes it look like a really foggy day even on a sunny day. I can see that there has been an alarming number of species disappear in Garth’s lifetime, as he stated here. I can also see that the world population has more than tripled in Garth’s lifetime as he also stated here.
Let me be clear. I can also see how the rise in tax grabs in my lifetime has increased exponentially in my lifetime. An what do we get? We get less, for more.
Do I have any control over any of these things? No, I don’t. Can I control what I do in my life? Yes, I can.
So I keep it simple. I live well, enjoy my life, contribute as little as I can to Corporate products and Governments, while maintaining and growing my income streams.
Not bragging. This is merely what works for me.
1.5 degree “target”?
such arrogance and stupidity.
this private jetset, $3000 suit-wearing, r-selected crew apparently controls the sun.
#203 cynically on 12.12.15 at 3:32 am
To #46 OXI in GREECE
The illegal money (as you put it) is not buying up all the Vancouver RE, only the million plus ones as they have been doing for some years now. This will probably subside somewhat now that offshore buyers have found some American cities desirable and less expensive if that is a factor in their decision making. What Vancouver will miss then is more money going into its economy if the buyers and their families actually remained in the country but as we all know that is up for debate.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Obviously you have never been to one of these “condo sales” where the entire building is sold in about 8 minutes
“Close very close,you are getting better with your sarcasm but you had the chance to bitch slap someone and you let them off with a wet willy.”
Why waste so words and time on either a mentally ill individual having an ‘episode’, or a Realtor simply trolling? Its bad enough that I spent a few minutes understanding what he/she was blabbing about.
There are a few comments here tonight about vertical farming. As usual, we Canucks are behind the times.
The Dutch have been experimenting with raising hogs in high rise buildings for more than five years. The soils ruined by nitrogen and phosphorous (from spreading manure as a fertilizer) and a high water table at risk led them to think of pig condos.
“Therefore MVRDV came up with vertical farming instead of expanding the production grounds over the Netherlands they will rise up to the sky forming “Pig City” which comprises 76 towers, each 622 meters high and with floors measuring 87 by 87 meters on which pigs are to be kept, so called “Pig flats“. Each flat will be inhabited by an appropriate to the species’ number of pigs. Even a balcony to watch the sundown is included.”
Toronto’s condo glut has a bright future.
Sorry. Forgot the link.
https://futureprospects.wordpress.com/2010/05/25/pig-city-a-nice-view-for-pork/
#76 Salutations Sally on 12.09.15 at 8:19 pm
What s “QE”? I see it mentioned almost daily, but haven’t been able to figure it out.. Thx!
Quantitative Easing = government-financed economic stimulus. — Garth
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Garth gave you an excellent “nutshell” explanation the other day, Sally, and he is absolutely correct.
However, like most things in this life, the devil is in the details! Others on this self-confessed “pathetic” blog attempted to give you some form of explanation of the term “QE”, and these fall very short. The problem is, “QE” simply defies a textbook or universal definition, and has been both over-used and mis-used.
Years ago, a brilliant and universally acknowledged pioneer in the rarified science of Quantum Mechanics (how things work in the realm of the very, very small; ie elementary particles) made the statement that, “If you say you understand Quantum Mechanics, then you don’t understand Quantum Mechanics.”
We probably could say something similar about “QE”; if you think you understand it in any universal sense of the term, I would bet you that you are way out in left field; that is, you are wrong. But please permit me to go ahead and try anyway, okay?
The term “QE” stands for “Quantitative Easing”, and in the most general of terms implies any and all attempts to stimulate the economy in general and more specifically to add much needed essential liquidity to the banking sector through a wide variety of options.
“QE” in various regions and countries has, therefore meant very different things, dependent upon the unique and varied needs of the local conditions. For example, “QE” in Japan has meant something totally and uniquely different than “QE” in the European Union and it is altogether different than the “QE” currently being applied in China.
So, as a self-confessed “non- expert-economist”, let me give you my take on this rather thorny issue. First off, I assume you are referring to “QE” as it was once practiced in the Exited States of America; my current homeland as a Canadian ex-pat. (They were the only ones who would take me!)
Lets look at QE as it was exercised in the USA (thankfully pre-Donald Trump, a gross aberration who absolutely does NOT want to be President of the USA. (he is doing everything in his limited powers to ensure he does NOT get the Republican nomination, and he won’t.) Forgive me, I digress.
Let’s get rid of a few myths as “QE” applies in the world’s greatest democracy shall we? (After all, I even get to elect everybody from my local Court Judges to my Dog-Catcher.)
1. “QE” is NOT ‘Money-Printing’. “QE” as employed in the USA created no money whatsoever. There is no more ‘money’ floating around today that there was pre-QE, and that is a simple fact. At the time QE began, the bulk of US economists predicted that it was in fact “money printing” and it would result in the destruction of the US dollar to peso valuations, and that gold and other precious metals would soar into the stratosphere. So-called ‘expert economists’ like virtually the entire Austrian School of economics, Peter Schiff (sp?), ‘Doom & Gloom’s’ Farber, &etc. predicted this. Let’s see: The US dollar would tank, commodities generally and Gold in particular would soar. Remember, these are well-educated and experienced economists, right?
Now, Sally; did this happen? No, of course it didn’t. See? Already you’re more knowledgeable than these guys. But wait: why were they so wrong? Commodities are tanking, Copper, Gold, Silver and Oil are all in toilet. You know that.
The US dollar is in the stratosphere for the simple reason that it has more credibility than all the other reserve currencies (which includes the Loonie, BTW.)
They overwhelmingly insisted that the US Federal Reserve was simply buying bonds and thereby injecting money into the ‘system’.
They were dead wrong. “QE” as per the Federal Reserve was an asset swap, pure and simple. “Asset Swap” you say? Yes; a simple trade. The Federal Reserve traded bonds for bank reserves. The keyword here is “traded”. It was far from a simple “buy”. (Remember that banks in the USA do not lend out their reserves, by the way; the ‘Money Multiplier’ is a myth.)
So, Sally; QE in the USA was an asset-swap; and asset trade, if you will. Banks got rid of bonds, and got assets added to their reserves. The Fed auctioned off bonds, mostly at maturity. There was no ‘money printing’.
2. Was QE successful in the USA?
I dunno. I think that the Obama Administation’s stimulus packages that built better roads, bridges, general infrastructure (the bulk of secondary roads in a given State in the USA are maintained by the Federal Government’s DOT, but few admit it these days), museums, local schools and college improvements, local parks and State Park grants etc. etc. actually did more to get things going here than did QE, but that’s just my opinion.
On the other hand, QE did inject liquidity into a moribund banking system, and I see that as a positive.
Well, Sally; if you want to learn more, I recommend Cullen Roche over at Pragmatic Capitalism.com
He knows his stuff, and has never given me a bad tip.
His paper, “Understanding the Modern Monetary System” is a must read.
And this is helpful: //www.pragcap.com/revisiting-the-destabilizing-force-of-misguided-market-intervention/
As is this: http://www.pragcap.com/understanding-quantitative-easing/
As for me, well, what do I know? Not much. But I am therefore distressed at the bloggers who post here advocating that the markets are an easy way to get rich. This includes Smoking Man and others who love to brag, but do not confess their losses.
The Markets are, in fact, NOT a way to ‘get rich’. They are a very cleverly crafted vehicle for prudently and carefully growing the wealth you have already been smart and prudent enough to accumulate.
In short, if you’ve been stupid in life so far, don’t expect the markets to save you.
Those on this blog who advocate otherwise, like the blatant fraud Smoking Man, who loves to brag, but then is short on his blunders, a fault of all alcoholics; would you in all seriousness be silly enough to take advice from a self-proclaimed alcoholic in matters of finances, or for that matter #207 jakethesnake on 12.12.15 at 4:04 am
Who seems to support this blatant fraud? They contribute entertainment value only, and as such deserve to be considered so.
Yes, I’m venting. Investing and personal finance is, after all, a serious matter. Serious, but yet, simple, too. Correct your mistakes early in the game and let your winners run, has and will be my “system” for success. Cut your losses and take your winning early will do you great service.
Why our host Garth Turner allows these blatant sycophants to permeate this blog is a testament to his patience and liberal (sic) bias. I commend him on his long-suffering deferment. Others with less open-mindedness would have sent them scuttling off to oblivion.
Sally, there is no short-cut to success. Work hard; avoid obvious pitfalls; make money; then put it to work. You’ll succeed.
#278 bdy sktrn
“they all looked like they desperately needed a shower .”
Perhaps. But looks and smell are two different things.
#281 BobC on 12.12.15 at 6:46 pm
I can’t help but worry about my grandkids future. I actually want a reset that makes the 1930’s seem mild. Todays ignorant generation has created the mess and we should pick up the tab.
http://mobile.wnd.com/2015/12/climate-criminal-blows-whistle-its-just-about-the-money/
……
Don’t worry, back lash has started in Alberta. One thing to dick with peoples lives in the 905, from the 416ers.
Now the commie govt of Alberta is fking with farmers, wait till the pain really sets in for those real men in fort Mac.
The UN. Just a bunch of do nothing usless-oids living the high life on our money, with the climate scam with they will live like kings and carbon will still be pumped.
There is going to be massive revolution type backlash in the not so distant future when the young tree huggers wake and realIize, they’ve been smoked. And all the money and opportunities they invition never materailze.
http://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/wildrose-leader-condemns-threats-against-premier-ndp
Don’t see how the mortgage rules changes will affect Vancouver and Toronto. It can only push up the condo and semis up even more.
#284 Freedom First on 12.12.15 at 7:04 pm
So they have a deal in Paris. Now, as I have said here before, I see the pollution in cities that makes it look like a really foggy day even on a sunny day. I can see that there has been an alarming number of species disappear in Garth’s lifetime, as he stated here. I can also see that the world population has more than tripled in Garth’s lifetime as he also stated here.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
And therein lies the rub. All 40,000 of these elitist and self absorbed snobs have not agreed to fight against a single thing that you have seen. They all prefer instead to fight against something no one has seen; an odorless colorless gas that has nothing whatsoever to do with pollution. A gas that all life on this planet relies on to give us life.
The actions of these self-absorbed kleptocratic tax-thieves will not remove one molecule of sulphate from the air (not in their agreement), protect a square inch of land from deforestation (not in the agreement), save one species (not in the agreement), curbing population growth (also not on the agenda).
In essence, it was a two week long Seinfeld episode with a cast of 40,000. A show about nothing.
All that stuff you thought was important? Not on the agenda. Funny how that works.
The nasty denial and personal attacks against Notley have been ramping up, with Wild Rose nutbars going crazy. Not what this province needs, people.
All sides of the legislature need to put their thinking caps on to reckon how to deal with the tsunami bearing down on Alberta. At this rate, it will be very ugly, with no solutions, only recriminations thanks in large part to our clueless opposition members.
This I why I fear the worst will come to pass, with most Albertans losing up to 90% of their home values over the years ahead.
An outflow of population is also increasingly likely.
Alberta has had massive changes in population in the past, and there is no reason this could not happen now.
From 1901 to 1911, the population grew by over 500%, and from 1901 to 1921 it grew by over 800%.
With the tar sands crashing, unless leaders can chart a new path, I would expect a similar rate in decline, through migration elsewhere in Canada. From the current 4.1 million to around 1991 levels, about 2.5 million, strikes me as quite possible.
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/demo62j-eng.htm
It could end up being like Tumbler Ridge in B.C., where houses costing 350K by the 1990s were selling for 30K in 2002 when mining took a dive.
RE:
The only people who are worried about the “war on Christmas” are the idiots at Fox News. Besides, Christmas has gone from being a Pagan celebration of the winter solstice, to a Christian holiday, to a capitalist consumer spending spree. So Merry Profit Taking to you too!
#287 Mark on 12.12.15 at 7:21 pm
“Close very close,you are getting better with your sarcasm but you had the chance to bitch slap someone and you let them off with a wet willy.”
Why waste so words and time on either a mentally ill individual having an ‘episode’, or a Realtor simply trolling? Its bad enough that I spent a few minutes understanding what he/she was blabbing about.
///////////////////////////////////////////
You crack me up man! You complain about wasting time,nobody but nobody wastes as much time on here as you.
Even when somebody asks the boss a question and he answers it ,you still feel the need to cover the topic as well.
Good on you for trying to help someone ,you’ve got a good heart but most of the time it’s obvious to most of us that you’ve got no clue what you are talking about.
I told you the other day to fight back when your disrespected ,so good on you for that but don’t kid yourself about not wasting time on here.
Stay for as long as you like but like I said the other day to you as well ,it is supposed to be educational and fun ,you choose to make it like work.
Spill some coffee in your lap before posting or do something different because right now what you are doing isn’t working.
Don’t take yourself so seriously ,because there are a lot of people on here that don’t
You wanna know why???
Because that would be a waste of time!
Calgary couple saves up $1M by the time they hit their 30’s:
http://globalnews.ca/news/2394255/two-canadian-millionaires-share-how-they-retired-in-their-early-30s/
Of note is that they borrowed from the Bank of Mom & Dad to help with the down payment for their condo, which they sold in 2013 and “hardly made any money off of”. Funny, I though real estate was supposed to go up forever during the oil boom.
What Vancouver will miss then is more money going into its economy if the buyers and their families actually remained in the country but as we all know that is up for debate.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Interesting that a lot of the “owners” of multi million dollar homes in Vancouver are listed as “students” or “homemakers” and the average declared income is around $19,000 a year…..Certainly not contributing much income tax wise……
The horse left the barn long ago, so chalk this one up to meaningless gesture. The engine now has run out of gas and the crankcase has no oil so that means what seizure?
The Loonie is doing the limbo and it does not look like we can sell enough maple syrup or bitumen to get to 85 cents which is considered the normal trading range.
Someone is going to have to take a big haircut in this market correction.
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/12/12/bank-of-canada-crushes-loonie-dollar-creates-mother-of-all-shorts/
Has anyone else noticed that it is getting really hard to find 100 Watt ordinary incandescent light bulbs in the stores these days?
All I can find is just simple 60 Watt bulbs at the nearby ‘Freshco’ food store down the street from me here in Waterloo.
Dear Freedom First. We know you aren’t bragging.
#264 Smoking Man on 12.12.15 at 4:35 pm
DELETED
…..
Damn, no way no matter how crafty I try and put it in, your just not going to let it fly are you.
Damn it man, it’s so obvious, switching a dog for cat. And I can’t talk about it.
#73: “Yesterday it was reported that groceries would go up 4%, what a joke, broccoli is the same prices as chicken or pork and a single pound of cauliflower costs as much as beef. …”
******************
Well, we have to eat. If all our disposable income goes to food there’s obviously less moola available for restaurants, theatres, electronic games, travel…the list goes on. Everyone suffers. It’s all about priorities.
#252 Original Darryl… Sorry, I have only made a few posts so far…. Did not see another Darryl. I will be the other darryl.
#221 SWL1976 on 12.12.15 at 10:29 am
#205 Darryl
#183 The American… Thanks for the detailed lesson, very knowledgeable you are. Is Obama Republican or Conservative?
WWWWWWWhat???
I do hope you are joking with that statement.
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Yup. Was just teasing The American.
Unreal, this woman at Stir. Lost her husband not six weeks ago, she’s dancing up a storm at Stir.
Heels, and tight jeans, new hair cut.
Looking for another sugar daddy…
Gamblers, is all I’m saying..
#199 Herf on 12.12.15 at 2:25 am
#53 Darryl
(Where’s your other brother, “Daryl”?)
‘You gotta move these levers slowly, to prevent a panic. The grocery store doesn’t announce over the PA that you are LOCKED IN THE STORE… rather, they say “..we are closing in 15 minutes.” ‘
Nah. I think they should just do it overnight without saying a word. Reminds me of a story (don’t know if it’s true) about how one of the Big Three auto manufacturers closed one of their plants: there was a fire drill and when all the workers had left the plant during the drill, Security came around and locked the doors and told them “Sorry boys. Plant’s closed”.
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You’re probably right… It’s what they should do, but a new gov’t,so they are treading lightly. Especialy poor Morneau! Man i feel bad for his shoes.
Great story about the auto plant if true or not… Sounds like revenge for all those painful labour disputes. LOL!!
Millenials your only hope of salvation. 60s tunes
“Don’t Let Me Be Misunderstood”
Baby, do you understand me now
Sometimes I feel a little mad
But don’t you know that no one alive
Can always be an angel
When things go wrong I seem to be bad
But I’m just a soul whose intentions are good
Oh Lord, please don’t let me be misunderstood
Baby, sometimes I’m so carefree
With a joy that’s hard to hide
And sometimes it seems that all I have do is worry
Then you’re bound to see my other side
But I’m just a soul whose intentions are good
Oh Lord, please don’t let me be misunderstood
If I seem edgy I want you to know
That I never mean to take it out on you
Life has it’s problems and I get my share
And that’s one thing I never meant to do
Because I love you
Oh, Oh baby don’t you know I’m human
Have thoughts like any other one
Sometimes I find myself long regretting
Some foolish thing some little simple thing I’ve done
But I’m just a soul whose intentions are good
Oh Lord, please don’t let me be misunderstood
Yes, I’m just a soul whose intentions are good
Oh Lord, please don’t let me be misunderstood
Yes, I’m just a soul whose intentions are good
Oh Lord, please don’t let me be misunderstood
#280 Ex-Cowtown,
“… we have naive, deluded and disconnected leaders.”
As opposed to the wisdom of their predecessors, the Bush’s, Klein’s and Harper’s, who led us into this mess?
#234, Smoking Man…
Ideologies come and go, but stupid is forever.
#278 bdy sktrn on 12.12.15 at 6:02 pm
#269 Herf on 12.12.15 at 5:05 pm
#252 Original Darryl
“There are two of us here … I’m not sure if there is a Larry .”
I didn’t know there were two of you here….. I suspect most of the millenials won’t get it.
—————–
they all looked like they desperately needed a shower
————————————————————–
Ha
Ya they did . I shower at least twice a week though :)
The deal effectively reduces the carbon footprint of the 6 Billion people on Earth to about 1 Billion.
However, those with money will BUY their carbon so they will be living it up large with lie flat bed in first class flights, huge yachts, etc.
The other 5 Billion people will have to resort to bicycles and walking. Maybe burn a little firewood for heat. Oh…and no flights for you…no..no..noo.
80% of population too dumb to realize whats going on.
AND…………….DRUM ROLL…
The middle classes of Canada and the USA will have the highest per capita carbon taxes of anywhere in the world.
This is going to be a pillage of epic proportions. Revenues funnelled into pet ‘transportation/environment’ projects. Funnelled to those companies well connected.
And you guys were upset about your loss off the TFSA room?? Thats nothing compared to whats coming.
#305 Other Brother Darryl on 12.12.15 at 8:53 pm
#252 Original Darryl… Sorry, I have only made a few posts so far…. Did not see another Darryl. I will be the other darryl.
————————————————————-
LOL
No problem dude . Plenty of room for another Darryl .
Need to keep it to one or less Smoking Man though .’
Already enough BS on this site .
RE: #300 David on 12.12.15 at 8:26 pm
I suggest readers go in and visit the article by Wolf Richter mentioned in David’s post .
“Bank of Canada Crushes Loonie, Creates Mother of All Shorts
by Wolf Richter • December 12, 2015
Clear winners: rich Chinese who buy homes in Canada.”
Even Garth, in the past has referenced Wolf . Wolf occasionally writes articles about the state of Canada’s economy. Take the time to also read some of the comments, as a number of them are from Canadians.
Some of Wolf’s comments such as :
“He (Poloz) is in an all-out currency war. He’s out to crush the loonie beyond what other forces are already accomplishing. He’s out to pulverize it, and no one knows how far he’ll go, or where he’ll stop, or if he’ll ever stop. He has single-handedly created the short of a lifetime”.
or
“So Poloz is trying to get Canadian workers to be able to compete with workers in Mexico and China and Bangladesh, and with those beaten-down wages in the US.”
Makes for SCARY reading.
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/12/12/bank-of-canada-crushes-loonie-dollar-creates-mother-of-all-shorts/
Conrad Black: The perfectly respectable environmental movement has been hijacked by climate radicals
http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/conrad-black-the-perfectly-respectable-environmental-movement-has-been-hijacked-by-climate-radicals
“…where is there evidence of climate change, other than the endlessly repeated divinations of professedly clairvoyant people such as Prince Charles and Al Gore (who also told us that he invented the Internet and that the Pacific island country of Tuvalu would be submerged by now — the water level there has actually declined slightly)? The “hockey stick” of sharply increasing temperatures is nonsense. Polar ice is not now melting. Kyoto cap-and-trade was an insane transfer of billions of dollars from advanced countries to the most egregious and backward despotisms. Copenhagen was an unmitigated fiasco.”
China, India, Brazil, and Russia exempt from charging its citizens a carbon tax for its CO2/NO2 emissions. They have pledged only to reduce emissions if they can thought self monitoring.
Canada will pay those countries to self monitor (Hahaha) and also will charge its citizens a higher carbon tax (Hahaha).
Unvelievable.
#295 ALBERTASTROPHE on 12.12.15 at 8:02 pm
”It could end up being like Tumbler Ridge in B.C., where houses costing 350K by the 1990s were selling for 30K in 2002 when mining took a dive.”
Or like this place in the early 80’s.
http://globalnews.ca/news/1483593/ghost-town-mysteries-the-30-year-slumber-of-kitsault-b-c/
#251 Not really
Maybe #167 bdy sktrn goes to Bellingham not just for the cheaper gas but finds a bigger and better selection of goods at Costco or the pleasure of shopping at Trader Joes You should try it yourself as it beats anything in Vancouver.
bigger and better selection of goods at Costco or the pleasure of shopping at Trader Joes
____________
Check and check.
Trader Joe’s is a godsend for gluten free stuff. Not to mention a bottle of real cranberry juice is 2.99 vs 9.00 on the drive.
#309 Smoking Man on 12.12.15 at 9:39 pm
Millenials your only hope of salvation. 60s tunes
“Don’t Let Me Be Misunderstood”
—
Been there, done that…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XsmCbP-MQkU&list=RDXsmCbP-MQkU#t=56
Here is the real version by Lana Del Rey
“Don’t Let Me Be Misunderstood”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mtoK-FKNYVY
I just want green wave for the traffic lights in Toronto.
That should have been the first pledge in Paris.
At least the US has a system that doesn’t allow ‘majority’ governments elected with under 40% popular support to have an effective dictatorship for 4 years.
Wait until the millennials figure out that not only will they need to support our own boomers, they’ll also need some money to China and India. Two countries most responsible for them not having any decent jobs in the first place.
#290 JimH
““QE” as employed in the USA created no money whatsoever.”
this statement is false–as money was created electronically to purchase assets.
you are, however, correct in saying that no money was physically “printed”.
#263 bdy sktrn on 12.12.15 at 4:28 pm
just a little bitter you are not pulling in 1200/mo for your basement with zero work and maybe 50/mo in costs? and yes i’m quite glad to have someone around on the wknd when i’m out of town at one of our cottages/acreages (i almost ever see her during the week but i do see the gang of 20something hotties that come over from time to time :)
=====================================
Yes, we’re all sure it’s just one big hot tub party. *eye roll*
Give us a break. I’ve had tenants and while it’s not exactly rocket science, neither is it “zero work”.
Only in Canada would it be considered a point of pride to have to rent space in your home to strangers to be able to afford it. And then try and spin it as a benefit.
#286 OXI in GREECE
“What Vancouver will miss then is more money going into its economy if the buyers and their families actually remained in the country . . .”
Vancouver has an economy? Who knew?
#152 bdy sktrn on 12.11.15 at 10:20 pm
VICTORIA sales skyrocket in November. 23%
listings plummet
bidding wars emerging
(CTV VI)
where’s VREU with her folksy foolishness and bad. expensive, advice?
*****************************************
Hopefully, she is enjoying a warm vacation away from the monsoon we are currently experiencing – we need a run-off pipe straight to California.
I’ll sit in for her though, not stats though.
10 days back a younger acquaintance, tells me he just lost a house in a bidding war. The winning bidder was from Vancouver. “now people from Van are bidding against us, cause it is cheaper here” No jobs, but yes slightly cheaper houses. I asked him how he knew all the details. “My Realtor told me” I had a wow moment, wow that he took the realtor’s word for it. The house in question was in a desirable area so not surprised there was two offers. I suggested he do some research and not to take the word of an unregulated “professional”. Much like you quoting a paid advertiser CTV Vancouver Island who received a paid advertisement from the local realtor board.
On a related subject two Realtors I know fairly well quit the business within the last two years – as it was slow. Another newbie Realtor is busy paying the remax monthly fees, and has yet to sell anything in this hot bidding war market.
Even if you google you still need to check the sources. YIKES.
Cognitive Dissonance
#285 saskatoon
“1.5 degree “target”?
such arrogance and stupidity.”
I think those climate summit twits and our own buffoon politicians who believe in this crap, should all put a cork up their butts and then hold their breath for the next 50 years. “Problem” solved.
#314 Super Deal in Paris!! on 12.12.15 at 10:11 pm
AND…………….DRUM ROLL…
The middle classes of Canada and the USA will have the highest per capita carbon taxes of anywhere in the world.
This is going to be a pillage of epic proportions. Revenues funnelled into pet ‘transportation/environment’ projects. Funnelled to those companies well connected.
And you guys were upset about your loss off the TFSA room?? Thats nothing compared to whats coming.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
It does not help that Canadians are such wimpy pansies that they will not do anything. What we need is a good old fashioned but organized tax revolt. How do you think these bloated inefficient losers get their money? From taxes. Take away the punch bowl and maybe they will start to listen to the electorate of the country they are supposed to represent…….instead of the globalists/corporations they pander to.
But again……we are talking about Canadians here.
#201 The Accountant on 12.12.15 at 2:50 am
Re #73 Gabby Truman
I know our dollar is depreciating quickly but your math is a little off. You said it costs an American less than 600k USD to buy a 1 million dollar (Cdn) home in Vancouver ? The US/ Canadian dollar Friday close was 1.3742 , so inversely it costs an American 72.7696 ¢ to buy 1 Canadian dollar or $727,696 USD to buy 1 million Cdn. When you add the common 2.5% currency exchange rate that banks charge , it then costs 74.5888 ¢ US for an American to buy 1 Cdn dollar or $745,888.00 USD to buy a 1 million dollar(Cdn) home. So our dollar is currently not quite as bad as you previously stated , but the way it is going we could be at your less than 600k figure sooner than later. Cheers.
….
Your numbers appear correct, but valuations don’t compare and Vancouver appears overbought. Sticker price and value don’t seem logical. What does one get in Seattle vs YVR for 750k US? Stronger economy, jobs, more population… It would seem that a Seattle valuations should be much more. If we moved a house worth $1m CAD from Vancouver to Seattle, what would we get for it? If a stick shack 10 km from the beach on 33′ lot in a vast land where it snows is for sale, would you pay anymore than 600k US for it? Think about it. Canadians are betting on 2x6s, plywood, and eluvial dirt. The pavement, noise, neon, and wires only add to the delusion. From space, Vancouver looks like a rash on the butt cheeks of the Fraser. Would US investors want to jig for greater fools up this property ladder? Until Vancouver is a steal compared to Seattle… What will $479k US get you in Vancouver?
Median Sale Price: $479,000 – Up 5.7 percent, year-over-year
http://www.seattlehome.com/blog/seattle-real-estate-market-weekly-update-december-09-2015/
Don’t see how the mortgage rules changes will affect Vancouver and Toronto. It can only push up the condo and semis up even more.
We can argue until we’re blue in the face about what degree of impact it’ll have (who cares, lets wait a few months and see) but only a fool would think it’ll make prices rise.
Re: #255 Evangeline on 12.12.15 at 3:41 pm
The Bank Of Canada has stopped shoring up the Canadian dollar. The were trying to hold the value at 75 cents U.S. and gave up when oil collapsed in price after the OPEC meeting. When Poloz mentioned negative interest rates that all but assures The Bank Of Canada will not prop up the dollar at all in the near future.
#321 Bdy Sktn
http://www.sciencealert.com/scientists-who-found-evidence-for-gluten-sensitivity-have-now-shown-it-doesn-t-exist
#313 Super Deal in Paris!! on 12.12.15 at 10:03 pm
”The deal effectively reduces the carbon footprint of the 6 Billion people on Earth to about 1 Billion.
However, those with money will BUY their carbon so they will be living it up large with lie flat bed in first class flights, huge yachts, etc.
The other 5 Billion people will have to resort to bicycles and walking. Maybe burn a little firewood for heat. Oh…and no flights for you…no..no..noo.
80% of population too dumb to realize whats going on.”
You got that right. Dumb as dumb can be.
A colleague at work posts a TorontoStar article saying GTA prices will hold. Denial phase. Of course, he just bought a house in the depressing area around Main subway station.
Toronto core house prices should hold, because man babies living in mommy’s basement are cash heavy and waiting to buy, refusing to rent. Also Alberta workers will move to Toronto…
…But it’s not a sure thing. Syrian immigrants are now accounting for a large part of the immigration quota, and won’t be buyers of houses. They’ll also be competiting for blue collar jobs. That will keep salaries lows. Add to this the 4600 banks jobs that were eliminated.
Then there’s the canadian stock market. Parents of man babies will have a shock when they look at their portfolio this month. They’ll also be getting less dividends. I bet you that they’ll be less inclined to give as much downpayment money to their kids.
Enjoy the TSX show next week!
Family Beagle says “Would US investors want to jig for greater fools up this property ladder? Until Vancouver is a steal compared to Seattle… What will $479k US get you in Vancouver?”
No kidding. I often speak with other Vancouverites (offshoot of the Nectonite tribe) about their “concerns over US and Chinese investors”. Let’s say they are moving the market to some degree. They aren’t buying unless they think is going up (more so than a regular resident). So once the peak is felt, they will be the ones to leave quickly and look for another jurisdiction to park the money (like Longbranch).
Blank stare… It turns out that Vancouverites can only add and not subtract – that is why they perceive that housing will always go up!
#323 Lana Del Rey on 12.13.15 at 12:53 am
Here is the real version by Lana Del Rey
“Don’t Let Me be MisunderstooD
———————————————————-
This is real
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HHjKzr6tLz0
#321 bdy sktn on 12.13.15 at 12:43 am
bigger and better selection of goods at Costco or the pleasure of shopping at Trader Joes
____________
Check and check.
Trader Joe’s is a godsend for gluten free stuff. Not to mention a bottle of real cranberry juice is 2.99 vs 9.00 on the drive.
—————
Gluten free stuff.
Just buy a bag of rice at T&T.
Check for arsenic, though.
So good to know that the central planners have everything under control.
#338 paul on 12.13.15 at 12:37 pm
#323 Lana Del Rey on 12.13.15 at 12:53 am
Here is the real version by Lana Del Rey
“Don’t Let Me be MisunderstooD
———————————————————-
This is real
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HHjKzr6tLz0
————–
Well actually….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ckv6-yhnIY
http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21679806-first-three-pieces-federal-reserves-imminent-interest-rate-decision
SINCE interest rates hit rock-bottom in 2009, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly made optimistic forecasts about when they would start rising, only to delay the big day again and again. If the Fed has been a bullish coach, the markets have been trusting fans, continually believing that an increase is imminent, only to have their expectations dashed. At last, however, the moment seems to have arrived. On December 16th, when the Fed’s rate-setting committee meets, it seems all but certain to raise rates.
For that, thank the strength of the labour market. Unemployment, at 5%, is as low as most analysts reckon it can sustainably fall. During the recession, America lost 8.7m jobs. It has since gained 13m. In 2010 there were six unemployed workers for every job opening; today there are 1.5.
Wages, long stagnant, finally appear to be growing again, too. In September, when the Fed toyed with raising rates, average hourly pay had just grown by 2%, on an annualised basis, over the prior three months. Now that has risen to 2.8% (see chart). By one measure, wages grew by fully 4% in the third quarter of the year. Accelerating pay suggests that slack in the labour market has almost gone.
Next week is setting up to be a real barn burner. Fed meeting followed by triple witching options expiry. S&P broke support and is on thin ice. Oil and commodity currencies are in free fall. Plus year end tax loss selling is hitting the tape too. I wouldn’t be surprised if grandma Yellen punts on the rate increase. They want it but they know it could blow up debtors and derivatives across the globe. I wouldn’t want to be in her shoes right now. She has no good option.
I’m seeing a week filled with very violent swings. Down then a massive short squeeze after options expire. Everyone and his cousin is long $US and short $Cdn, oil, gold, copper etc. When everyone gets on one side of the boat it won’t take much to tip it. Be careful out there!
“I’m just a Greater Fool, whose intentions are good”.
#338 paul on 12.13.15 at 12:37 pm
#323 Lana Del Rey on 12.13.15 at 12:53 am
Here is the real version by Lana Del Rey
“Don’t Let Me be MisunderstooD
———————————————————-
This is real
—–
Sure… but Smoking Man wanted a millennial version.
#344 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.13.15 at 12:58 pm
“I’m just a Greater Fool, whose intentions are good”.
———————————————————
Do you feel misunderstood? :)
Just watching some English football on sportsnet and they’re running Bob McCowen ads.
The guy reminds me of Garth a little bit.
Sure they’ve got beards, but I think the link is the wit and the snark.Long lost cousins?
Meanwhile in West Toronto:
http://i.cbc.ca/1.3361042.1449855260!/fileImage/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/16x9_620/subprime-offers-toronto-housing.jpg
You are not helping, realtors.
#343 Sideshow Bob
Any thoughts why the Federal and States has to continue to pass out $1 Trillion dollars a year in welfare if its so great in the land of milk and honey? I never know what to believe anymore.
I meant #342 Victor V
US town rejects solar panels amid fears they ‘suck up all the energy from the sun’
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-town-rejects-solar-panels-amid-fears-they-suck-up-all-the-energy-from-the-sun-a6771526.html
“Jane Mann, a retired science teacher, said she was concerned the panels would prevent plants in the area from photosynthesizing, stopping them from growing.
Ms Mann said she had seen areas near solar panels where plants are brown and dead because they did not get enough sunlight.
She also questioned the high number of cancer deaths in the area, saying no one could tell her solar panels didn’t cause cancer.”
Brilliant.
#326 saskatoon on 12.13.15 at 1:45 am
#290 JimH
““QE” as employed in the USA created no money whatsoever.”
this statement is false–as money was created electronically to purchase assets.
===================================
Wrong. QE was an asset swap. Bonds from banks were swapped for increased reserves. The Fed auctioned off the bonds.
“Money” creation by any means on the scale you suggest would have resulted in runaway inflation as the “inflationistas” like Peter Schiff had predicted. The commodity, gold and silver bubbles were largely driven by widespread anticipation of inflation which obviously never occurred. Peter Schiff at one time was predicting a valuless US Dollar and $7000/Toz. gold.
The reason that there was no runaway inflation and that so many were wrong was simply because there was no money created.
Just wondering if you could sometimes put a cat pic up that does not make them look f’d up?
You had up one up not so long ago but it was ruined by the presence of the Sith Lord.
Don’t get it.
They want to cool the housing market by making it harder to buy Three Month from now.
It’s easy to predict which way the herd will go.
Rookie mistake.
#295 ALBERTASTROPHE
——————————
Go ply your doomer bs somewhere else.
Alberta is down right now for sure.
It’s obvious that you don’t live in this province.
Abertan’s are some of the most inventive, self sufficient and ‘old stock’ persons in this country.
Albertan’s built a huge agricultural economy from nothing. They built a huge petroleum based economy from nothing, whether it be conventional or Oil sands oil.
The world had a great party decided that it would be a ‘neat’ idea to move to a less carbon based solutions.
Kumbaya doesn’t change the world though.
People need to eat, they need heat, and they need to work.
Governments may think that there is an endless supply of taxpayer dollar to piss away but the cool thing about democracies is that it is the people that decide.
Lets see if the Wynne in Ontario and Notley governments are around in 3 years.
My bets are not.
If the world does move towards a less carbon based economy, great.
Albertans will be the first to see this trend, and the first to see opportunities in these industries.
Because while it is frustrating for Albertans that a major source of their econonomy, and economic success
is depressed , Albertan’s don’t whine and complain like many other ‘have not’ provinces.
They just get on with the job of doing better.
So while Notley sucks, Alberta Rocks!
#346 Original Darryl on 12.13.15 at 1:10 pm
#344 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.13.15 at 12:58 pm
“I’m just a Greater Fool, whose intentions are good”.
———————————————————
Do you feel misunderstood? :)
————–
Don’t we all my friend. Don’t we all.
Funny, Kanada dabbled with first world technology in 1970 – a bullet train. You know like real first world countries have. Would make sense given our land mass.
Guess how it worked out. Buzzt…stuck in the 2nd world. Our taxes go to where?
http://spacing.ca/toronto/2015/12/09/53711/
Remembering the ill-fated CN Turbo train
“Now, almost 50 years after the debut of the Turbo train, it actually takes longer to get between Toronto and Montreal. Via Rail allows 4:45 for a one way trip”
..
Meanwhile, Alberta Venture magazine has report on last year’s bumper wheat crop going largely to waste due to this country’s railroad duopoly holding it ransom with car shortages. What is it with Kanada and duopolies? I wonder how many former politicians get board seats, at CNR and CP.
David Danon, a former Vanguard tax lawyer who is now a whistleblower filed formal complaints with the Internal Revenue Service and many state taxing agencies claiming that Vanguard’s low fees are an illegal tax dodge. … underpaid its federal and state income taxes since its founding?
http://articles.philly.com/2015-11-19/business
Vanguard Whistleblower Could Get Billions in Tax Dodge Complaint
By David Cay Johnston 12/3/15 at 4:56 PM
http://www.newsweek.com/vanguard-whistleblower-tax-dodge-complaint-400901
School fees paid from tax havens (12 Dec 2015)
Dec 8 2015 at 12:15 AM Updated Dec 8 2015 at 1:15 PM
Private school fee records used to target offshore tax evasion
Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/policy/tax/private-school-fee-records-used-to-target-offshore-tax-evasion-20151207-glhcnl#ixzz3uDeLlw86
https://www.ato.gov.au/Media-centre/Media-releases/Project-DO-IT—the-deadline-is-fast-approaching/
Housing market is already going down. US rate raise is going to make it worse. Did they put in the 3 month regulation (which is pretty weak) to pull forward demand to lessen the squeeze?
Maybe I have the same problem as the banks: I give too much credit.
#318 Super Deal in Paris! on 12.12.15 at 11:22 pm
Figure out how out how to maximize your profit from these carbon trading schemes. Do you you really want to be the same sort of loser that’s followed Garth’s advice on housing? Logic has nothing to do with anything anymore; it’s all propaganda and herd mentality. There’s no way global warming doesn’t pay off big time. Most people are willing to sell their first born to save the planet after the barrage of propaganda.
Live long and prosper. The herd is three monkeys.
wow
https://www.google.ca/search?q=hairless+chimp&espv=2&biw=1366&bih=667&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiwmcDy-NnJAhUU_GMKHX8GCDcQsAQIGg#imgrc=H40qPKGv0lZHSM%3A
SHORTING TRADES:
Home Capital
Genworth Financial
Alaris Royal
CMHC MBS
Enz