Lucky us

LUCKY

Friday morning, just as financial markets open, the finance minister will make yet another announcement. This time (unlike last week’s tax-TFSA bomb) he’ll be standing on the polished buff tiles of the House of Commons foyer, with no technical briefing planned for reporters.

The reason? Raising real estate down payments is simple. You just do it.

Update: Libs hike down payment requirement (as predicted). Link

Well, that’s the buzz. So while the Hot One selfies across the globe and does photo shoots for Vogue, groping Sophie’s butt, poor Bill is sent out to get his shot off. Hiking the required down to 10% could have the potential (as reported here last week) of eliminating more than 100,000 annual house deals – or more than will take place in the entire GTA during 2015.

But the expectation is for a graduated down payment system: something like 5% for properties selling for $500,000 or less, 7% for listings up to $700,000, and a 10% down payment requirement above that figure. Of course, properties changing hands for $1 million or more are already disqualified from mortgage insurance coverage. Buyers there have to cough up at least 20% of the purchase price in cash (or additional financing).

So what will be the impact? In the cheaper markets (like Montreal or the Peg), not much. But in YVR or the GTA, where seven hundred grand buys a glorified garage with a kitchen or a crappy semi downwind from the sewage treatment plant, this could be big news. Combine that with a realization US rates are rising (on Wednesday), and the Canadian economy is shifting into reverse, and 2016 could be a watershed year for real estate.

And here’s something interesting: even the real estate guys are taking this seriously, trying to get on the right side of the issue. After all, the latest debt numbers are stunning. Mortgages equal to 500% of incomes now common, debt swelling at five times the rate of economic growth and large numbers of existing homeowners struggling to service their monthlies. Clearly money’s been too cheap and the cost of entry too low. If house prices drop, or even flatline, stand back.

Look at Re/Max, pedaling hard. “New rules on larger down payments would barely impact consumers outside of Vancouver and Toronto,” the company said this week. In fact, the realtors did a survey asking Canadians if they think buyers should be forced to have more skin in the game. Over 66% agreed that “10% or more is a good level for down payment on a home.”

So, if this is correct, the people are out ahead of the industry and the politicians, understanding how massively we have hitched our wagon to a single, emotional asset class. And that’s probably because the bulk of us don’t live in Vancouver or 416. Re/Max confirms minimum downs will be increased (presumably because Department of Finance minions have been consulting with it on the impact), as well as new rules forcing the banks to take on more lender risk by accepting a deductible on any insured loss on a property.

That’s a big deal. To date bankers have loaned gobs of money to moist virgins with zero savings but 100% hormones, doing it at the same cheapo rate a richer, older buyer with a fat down payment might receive, while washing their hands of risk – since it’s all covered by the feds. That might change quickly with a deductible on losses, combined with what’s happening to banks because of the lager economy.

For example look at poor Alberta. Oil was down to $36 on Thursday, with thirty-two the next support level. The layoffs are everywhere, with real estate shedding value fast and even rents tumbling. Monthly condo lease rates in Calgary have tanked about 20% since last year – from an average of $2,200 to just $1,700. House rental rates are down 10% and there’s (obviously) a surge in the number available. No wonder. Sales are down again this month by 20% while listings have increased 34%. In Edmonton the number of rental houses on the market has exploded by over 70%.

Even with just days to go before the Fed increase, and our dollar at 73 cents, momentum is building for the Bank of Canada to cut its key rate for the third time. That has helped drive preferred share values down, and comes as the worst possible news for the T2 gang in Ottawa who swept into power on the hopey-changey platform. A cut will be an admission the economy is succumbing to oil creep, that our dollar must to be sacrificed and there’s tougher sledding ahead.

“As I look at the Canadian economy,” says the chief economist at Scotiabank. “the risks are rising, not diminishing.”

The first rate cut last January excited the kids and led to a big price jump for houses. The second one in July did almost nothing. The third one’s a warning. Those among us with all net worth in maple – whether a house or a mess of bank mutual funds – may soon wish they lived elsewhere.

I mean, until they see this. Lucky us.

VOGUE

257 comments ↓

#1 S.Bby on 12.10.15 at 6:55 pm

Lots of R/E pumping going on today in YVR media:

http://www.news1130.com/2015/12/10/vancouver-realtor-is-selling-homes-directly-to-buyers-in-china/

http://www.news1130.com/2015/12/10/average-home-sale-prices-in-metro-vancouver-to-jump-in-2016/

#2 Broke Dick on 12.10.15 at 6:58 pm

#253 Panhead on 12.10.15 at 5:09 pm
#200 Broke Dick on 12.10.15 at 12:02 pm

This is priceless … keep the used car salesman stories coming … we are all ears …
///////////////////////////////////////////

ok, one more story. I don’t want to push Garth’s limit.
Now this story did not happen to me but a close friend of mine and it goes like this.
Customer and salesman have gone through the walk through and finished the test drive and now find themselves back in the salesman’s office.
The conversation turns to making a buying decision but the customer now balks. So as is expected of the salesman he calls in his manager for a T.O. (turnover).
The manager arrives in the office and the conversation goes something like this-
manager- so what’s stopping you from buying this car today?
customer- well I would like to get a better deal
manager- how much of a better deal would make you buy the car today?
customer- well I also have to discuss this with my wife
manager- no problem. Go home get your wife bring her back here and we’ll dicker

#3 paul on 12.10.15 at 6:58 pm

This was Freedom First in his prior life!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fFzKi-o4rHw&feature=share

#4 Frank on 12.10.15 at 7:00 pm

Heh, getting your last quips in about JT just in case you have to live up to your promise of being more respectful with a down payment hike tomorrow. Love it.

Ever met the guy?

#5 paul on 12.10.15 at 7:01 pm

Is it just me but he does not look Prime Minister material.

#6 Victoria on 12.10.15 at 7:05 pm

This dude thinks it is the new norm.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/12/10/house-prices-toronto-vancouver_n_8774600.html?utm_hp_ref=canada

#7 STEVO on 12.10.15 at 7:05 pm

I heard T2 has moves like Jagger…..no wait, wrong family member ;)

#8 Mark on 12.10.15 at 7:06 pm

The economy worked just fine in an era when everyone had to bring 25% down, and CMHC subprime mortgage insurance was only for the statistically lower percentiles of housing values. Typically only used by the working poor or even people on partial forms of social assistance.

But I realize the government needs to treat cautiously, albeit forcefully, to prevent the CMHC from precipitating a systemic crisis.

“as well as new rules forcing the banks to take on more lender risk by accepting a deductible on any insured loss on a property.”

If that’s implemented, the reaction by the banks will be swift — they’ll demand much higher spreads to compensate for such. IOW, higher interest rates for retail mortgage customers, particularly those with lower equity and CMHC insurance. Even as the BoC cuts their policy rates to zero and even negative.

IMHO, there’s an increasing realization in Ottawa that things are seriously and severely wrong with the CMHC portfolio. The smell of the rotting turds is becoming overwhelming.

#9 Winterpeg on 12.10.15 at 7:06 pm

“But the expectation is for a graduated down payment system: something like 5% for properties selling for $500,000 or less, 7% for listings up to $700,000, and a 10% down payment requirement above that figure.”- GT

That increase seems like a drop in the bucket. Do you think they are going to ease into something more substantial down the road?

#10 Jay on 12.10.15 at 7:08 pm

Ramping up lending standards will hurt, but its the right thing to do long-term.

As someone who paid his 20%, none of this has anything to do with me, mind you…

#11 Jetboy on 12.10.15 at 7:08 pm

Fingers x’d that R/E prices normalize soon….slew of expats waiting to come home but homes/rent still too pricey. Patience all…..it’ll turn soon.

#12 Chris in Langley on 12.10.15 at 7:09 pm

#200 Broke Dick on 12.10.15 at 12:02 pm

#112 Freedom First on 12.09.15 at 10:33 pm
#67 common sense

common sense, Broke Dick, and loft. You guys remind me of the Three Stooges. Except you’re not funny and the 3 of you only embarrass yourselves. Unknowingly too. Sad.
///////////////////////////////////////

For Freedom First.
Let me relate to you a story from my car selling days, which reminds me of you.
On day there was a customer in the showroom asking ridiculous questions and seeming just wanting to put down the car brand I was selling. I could see he had no intention of buying said car and after about 10-15 minutes of his going on and on I said to him “Why don’t you just [email protected]#% off”.
Well wasn’t this rude customer now just flabbergasted.
He says to me “Did you just tell me to [email protected]#% off?”
Yes, I said.
Well I want to speak to your manager says the customer.
So into the managers office I go and I said to him that the customer wants to see him.
(To add a little colour to this story picture my manager as a car salesman straight out of the sixties, plaid suit and all. And for to keep his identity a secret let’s just call the manager Peter Pecker).
My manager exits the office, introduces himself to the customer and asks the customer how he can be of assistance.
The customer replies that I had told him to [email protected]#% off.
Mr. Pecker turns to me and asks “Did you just tell him to [email protected]#% off?”
Yes, I replied.
Mr. Pecker, my manager, turns back to the customer and says “So what are you still doing here, get lost!”.

Freedom First, you remind me of that customer.

——————————————————–

Great Story! There was a realtor on this blog from Kelowna 5 1/2 years ago who made the lonely freedom first guy seem stable. He was an expert on everything. I don’t remember his handle but his level of insecurity was so high he would post 10, 12, 15 times a day….and ramble like you wouldn’t believe.

So…lonely freedom guy who pretends that he doesn’t have MASSIVE hangups about women, in relation to the psycho realtor from days gone by, you’re pretty stable!

#13 Doug t on 12.10.15 at 7:10 pm

Party like its 1999 people cause we’re on a highway to hell

#14 Marius on 12.10.15 at 7:10 pm

http://www.vancouverobserver.com/opinion/20-cent-condo-sales-went-foreigners-2015-cmhc-kind

#15 AB Boxster on 12.10.15 at 7:14 pm

You know I was really enjoying your post today until I got to the end and saw this insipid image once again.
Kind of made me throw up in my mouth a little bit.

#16 CP on 12.10.15 at 7:16 pm

“Is it just me but he does not look like Prime Minister material.”

It’s just you, but that’s okay you’re probably old.

#17 Broke Dick on 12.10.15 at 7:18 pm

#253 Panhead on 12.10.15 at 5:09 pm
#200 Broke Dick on 12.10.15 at 12:02 pm

This is priceless … keep the used car salesman stories coming … we are all ears …
///////////////////////////////////////////

ok, one more story.
Garth, I won’t blame you if you run that last post past Dorothy to see if it passes the vulgarity test.

#18 Mark on 12.10.15 at 7:18 pm

“Party like its 1999 people cause we’re on a highway to hell”

The post-1999 era worked out very well for those not invested in the bubble of the day.

Had one sold their bubbly tech stocks, and bought real estate, bonds, precious metals, Canadian dollars, and “old economy” stocks in 1999, the returns have been consistent with historical numbers in an era where the economy really didn’t do too well.

People holding onto excess RE and unbalanced portfolios today only have themselves to blame for future misery. Even the CAD$ being low is creating a lot of opportunities for investors in Canada.

#19 Yitzhak Rabin on 12.10.15 at 7:18 pm

Speaking of debt levels:

For the first two months of the budget year that began on Oct. 1, the US federeal budget deficit totaled $201.1 billion, a 12.6 percent jump from a year ago.

The “forecast” is $414 billion for the whole year, almost half way there already, 2 months in.

The correlation between stock market performance and the federal deficit has never been stronger. Look for the deficit number to blow sky high. Another reason the FED will either not raise rates, or do a 1-and-done, followed by a rate cut and more QE4.

This is actually what Janet Yellen has said is an option if “the economy” slows. She thinks it worked so well the first time.

It didn’t work any better than QE1 or 2.

More QEs than Rocky Movies (and each one of those movies got progressively worse).

#20 MF on 12.10.15 at 7:19 pm

I’ll admit I can’t stand our new government and 99% of their policies, but this one I like.

Here in the GTA, there are lots of condos with a 300-450k price tag. Since this range still only requires a 5% down payment, will this range see a price increase? It’s hard to say.

Lol and I love watching the msm trying to spin this guy off as a hot new leader. Being youthful does not automatically mean you are a good leader. Having charisma does. He’s got zero charisma or presence.

My boomer parents confirm this: “he’s not like his father who had charisma”. They loved Pierre but do not like the kid one iota.

MF

#21 MF on 12.10.15 at 7:22 pm

#15 CP on 12.10.15 at 7:16 pm

No it’s not just him. I’m young and he is not leader material.

But hey having our entire generation of pot heads vote for him because of weed makes us look real good to you I guess.

MF

#22 Adam on 12.10.15 at 7:23 pm

Any source on that rental price decrease in Calgary, Garth?

My lease is up in a couple months and I’d like to have some bargaining power.

#23 Drill Baby Drill on 12.10.15 at 7:23 pm

The caption should read above Sophie “and remember you promised me Ontario and all of it’s tax dollars, now about that thing Wynne”.

#24 Herf on 12.10.15 at 7:24 pm

#4 paul

“Is it just me but he does not look Prime Minister material.”

No kidding, Sherlock. Who gave you the first clue?

PET Jr. was probably chosen by the Liberal Party as their “show boy” whose main purpose is to distract the fickle public/voters from the real issues facing the nation, while the true power brokers behind the scenes manipulate his strings and set government policy.

#25 Interstellar Old Yeller on 12.10.15 at 7:24 pm

A deductible? I guess you’ll need more than a pulse to get a mortgage, soon!

#3 Frank – ha ha ha!

#26 zee on 12.10.15 at 7:24 pm

This change in down payment will have no impact, in GTA and Vancouver prices.

Bank of Mom/Dad is still around to help out.
Foreign money will continue to flow in these two cities.
Lower variable mortgage rates are coming soon.

Only significant higher rates and major layoffs will bring this market down.

#27 MSM-Free Zone on 12.10.15 at 7:26 pm

Funny how the new government is finally beginning to inject some objective common sense into Canadian home ownership where the outgoing, over-lobbied, one-trick government continually failed to do so.

#28 Drill Baby Drill on 12.10.15 at 7:26 pm

#7 Stevo
The wrong Rolling Stone or is it Stones? She made the rounds.

#29 MF on 12.10.15 at 7:27 pm

#200 Broke Dick on 12.10.15 at 12:02 pm

haha that’s hilarious.

I vote for more stories also. I bet you have tons.

MF

#30 JSS on 12.10.15 at 7:27 pm

Mark was correct on two accounts:

– Banks to shoulder more risk
– Growing odds of another BoC rate cut

#31 Matt on 12.10.15 at 7:27 pm

I don’t think Canadians realized they elected an Abercrombie and finch model. He thinks he is jfk incarnate.

#32 Whistler bubble boy on 12.10.15 at 7:28 pm

Like an Acura MDX ejecting a spark plug, pregnant real estate values have been giving us warning signs that the season may change.
North of Squamish I have no vested interest in real estate but I do believe we will be the last to feel any pain.
I believe our dollar plummeting is the norm and it will be for some time.
New Foreign owners will harvest a healthy exchange one day but then again so will the used house salesmen.

#33 Why Why Jay on 12.10.15 at 7:30 pm

The graduated min down payment doesn’t go far enough in my opinion. There needs to be a step between 0 and 500K. 10% doesn’t seem like enough on houses costing more than 700K (note I said costing not worth). Houses in the 7 figure range should require a full 20% down (no mortgage loan insurance allowed on million dollar properties). If you can’t afford a proper down payment on a million dollar house, you can’t afford a million dollar house.

It’s like ordering pizza. If you can’t afford to tip the driver you can’t afford the pizza. But everyone thinks they deserve pizza. Delicious hot pizza, conveniently delivered to the door of the house they can’t afford but bought anyway.

#34 jaybee on 12.10.15 at 7:35 pm

I think a line should be drawn in the sand at 500k, rather than a graduated scale. It would be interesting to see how this would effect real estate pricing strategies.

Would this not cool Toronto and Vancouver without harming other markets like Winnipeg – Halifax – Cal\Edm in the process?

And by the way, Garth…I know you like to make fun of Justin, but c’mon; a ham sandwich would have the main stream media in a frenzy after 9 years of Harper!

#35 Old Man Too on 12.10.15 at 7:38 pm

You know, when I was a kid and we bought our first house, the rule of thumb was 2.5 x income. Think about that: you earn 100k, you could buy a house worth 250 k, not $1MM. Oh the good old days are coming back.

#36 Muttley O'Toole on 12.10.15 at 7:39 pm

” The Government of the United States is the
brokest entity in the history of brokeness. It has to pay back $20 trillion just to get back to having nothing at all. Which nobody in human history has ever done. Yet it apparently is not so broke that it can’t throw down the toilet 700 grand of funds marked for science on a lousy musical.”

Mark Steyn’s comment Dec.8th during his testimony to the SUB-COMMITTEE ON SPACE, SCIENCE AND COMPETITIVENESS OF THE UNITED STATES SENATE Data or Dogma?

#37 Mr Reality on 12.10.15 at 7:40 pm

The number one rule about the real estate industry:

Whatever they say, the opposite is true.

Mr R

#38 Pervy McWanker on 12.10.15 at 7:41 pm

Mmmmmmmm……Groping Sophie’s butt……!!

I’m sorry, what was this you were saying about raising something??

#39 Smartalox on 12.10.15 at 7:42 pm

The question is now one of timing:

Will the new minimum down payments kick in before, or after the BofC rate cut?

If before, (i.e.: effective immediately) it’s a great way to target the rate cut at industries other than real estate.

If it’s after (i.e.: comes into effect in the new year), there’ll be three more weeks of gasbagging before the carnage hits.

In my opinion, the ‘mandatory minimums’ should be doubled.

#40 Wrong on Down Payments on 12.10.15 at 7:42 pm

No one buys a $700,000 house with 7% down.

CMHC stats show that only a very small fraction of mortgages are over $425,000.

This is all hot air. Psychological dressing for the naive.

#41 Not tonight honey on 12.10.15 at 7:43 pm

Garth, hope this is ok to post; Feel free to delete, I won’t throw a toddler tantrum ;-)

Not finances related but most folks here are sharp/in-the-know kinda peeps and perhaps we can help each other out a bit?!?

I’m sort of a ‘plan for the worst-pray for the best’ kinda gal. Hubby works in Oil & Gas….where are the geologist & engineering jobs (if any) should we need to leave calgary? I’m willing to go anywhere except Saudi as there is a better than good chance I’d be stoned within the first week, Gah! Plus I’m way too hot for an abaya, lol, kidding!

Good luck everyone, it’s really tough out there. Take care of yourselves & please seek help if you’re feeling like you might harm yourself or someone else. You’re not alone & all things are impermanent-this too shall pass!!

Warmly,
NTH
Ps. I can work anywhere & happy explore new dirt :-)

#42 jess on 12.10.15 at 7:43 pm

round robin

“Under the scheme Orica increased internal debt in its Canada and New Zealand operations, with money channelled to Orica Finance Limited, then to another Australian company, Orica Explosives Holdings.

Orica Explosives Holdings invested funds in Orica US Services Inc in the US, which loaned the money back to Orica Finance at rates between 4.46 per cent and 5.4 per cent.

The money paid into the US company totalled $914 million over three years, but because it was a round-robin transaction it appears that the same money was cycled each time, with loans back to Australia funding the next year’s round of US investment, with interest payments due to the US company building to $39.6 million a year.

=
Mining services group Orica set up a $900 million tax-avoidance scheme to help inflate its share price, Justice Tony Pagone found in a judgment in the Federal Court in Melbourne on Monday.

Orica is facing a tax bill of almost $40 million, including interest and penalties, for the scheme, which operated from 2002 to 2006…

The judgment is the second win for the Australian Taxation Office over a Chevron-style scheme to claim inflated interest payments to a US subsidiary.

Read more: http://www.afr.com/business/mining/orica-ran-900m-tax-scheme-to-lift-its-share-price-20151208-gli46z#ixzz3txqcdwkI

#43 Sean on 12.10.15 at 7:46 pm

Some required reading from Kevin Milligan on response to higher tax rates:

http://policyoptions.irpp.org/2015/12/10/what-elasticity-of-taxable-income-should-we-use-for-2016/

#44 BG on 12.10.15 at 7:47 pm

#129 MF on 12.09.15 at 11:50 pm

[…]

Most of us [Millennials] are too busy going clubbing, getting tattoos, going on tinder and smoking weed to learn what an ETF is.

MF

*********************************************

Youngsters too busy having fun? OMG they must be ruining their life.

#45 rawdiswar on 12.10.15 at 7:47 pm

JT is the Canadian version of Obama. He pretends to be a hip, trendy viable alternative but is really just a schill for the same Bilderberg machine.

You see the same “irrational exuberance” from mis-informed, broke, wanna-be socialists thinking he’ll change everything, but in the end nothing will change except for national debt, increased taxes, and more bloated government waste.

Style over substance, just like in the US. Now look what the kickback from that has spawned in the form of Donald Trump.

Wonder what the repercussions will be here once JT is done?

#46 Boombust on 12.10.15 at 7:47 pm

I’ll take JT any day over that turd, Harper…

#47 Freedom First on 12.10.15 at 7:47 pm

Yes. Alberta is in dire straits and can no longer be hidden.

I exposed on this Blog what was going on in Alberta way before it hit the msm. They did everything they could to hide it until they couldn’t. Now, the truth about the reality in Alberta is everywhere.

Also, I said 18 months ago, at least, that Canadians have been sleeping. Now, the contagion is spreading across Canada, although there is still pockets of Canada that have been in denial and thinking they are safe.

Right now, in Canada, as has been realized in much of the world in the recent past, the wisdom of being liquid, balanced, and diversified, with cash, cash flow, income streams and 0 debt, should be the financial goal to strive for. It beats the he!! out of pain and misery.

#48 BC Guy on 12.10.15 at 7:50 pm

It’s not a Selfie if there’s two in the photo.

Have some respect for our new PM and his wife, please.

Funny, no mention of the Robocall Scandal breaking news from the Duffy trial today.

Harper had 10 years to put his Conservative ideologies to the test. What’s the end result? .73 dollar, crashing TSX, high govt debt and deficits, housing bubble that most average Canadians can’t afford without dangerous levels of debt …

#49 Freedom First on 12.10.15 at 7:56 pm

#3 Paul

Thank you for the inspiration. I see white knights and manginas everywhere. I have been blessed.

#50 Blobby on 12.10.15 at 7:58 pm

Okay. Can you explain to me how any of this is JTs fault, and how it would’ve been different with Harpo in charge?

#51 CMHC insider on 12.10.15 at 7:59 pm

This is about shifting more business to Genworth and Canada Guaranty.

Nothing else.

T2 = Harper Gov = pawns run by the organizations in power.

#52 Freedom First on 12.10.15 at 8:00 pm

#12 Chris in Langley

You need to get more sunshine.

#53 Randy Randerson on 12.10.15 at 8:01 pm

Huh, so the market is gearing for a BoC rate cut? But wouldn’t a rate cut increase the price of preferred shares, just like bonds?

#54 Winterpeg on 12.10.15 at 8:02 pm

That JT/Sophie photo is pure fodder for Rick Mercer’s weekly “photo challenge” or at least Rick’s weekly rant.

#55 Millenial on 12.10.15 at 8:04 pm

Hey Garth,
Are you more excited about Dec 25th, or Dec 16th?

#56 Darryl on 12.10.15 at 8:04 pm

#12 Chris in Langley on 12.10.15 at 7:09 pm
#200 Broke Dick on 12.10.15 at 12:02 pm

#112 Freedom First on 12.09.15 at 10:33 pm
#67 common sense

common sense, Broke Dick, and loft. You guys remind me of the Three Stooges. Except you’re not funny and the 3 of you only embarrass yourselves. Unknowingly too. Sad.
///////////////////////////////////////

For Freedom First.
Let me relate to you a story from my car selling days, which reminds me of you.
On day there was a customer in the showroom asking ridiculous questions and seeming just wanting to put down the car brand I was selling. I could see he had no intention of buying said car and after about 10-15 minutes of his going on and on I said to him “Why don’t you just [email protected]#% off”.
Well wasn’t this rude customer now just flabbergasted.
He says to me “Did you just tell me to [email protected]#% off?”
Yes, I said.
Well I want to speak to your manager says the customer.
So into the managers office I go and I said to him that the customer wants to see him.
(To add a little colour to this story picture my manager as a car salesman straight out of the sixties, plaid suit and all. And for to keep his identity a secret let’s just call the manager Peter Pecker).
My manager exits the office, introduces himself to the customer and asks the customer how he can be of assistance.
The customer replies that I had told him to [email protected]#% off.
Mr. Pecker turns to me and asks “Did you just tell him to [email protected]#% off?”
Yes, I replied.
Mr. Pecker, my manager, turns back to the customer and says “So what are you still doing here, get lost!”.

Freedom First, you remind me of that customer.

——————————————————–

Great Story! There was a realtor on this blog from Kelowna 5 1/2 years ago who made the lonely freedom first guy seem stable. He was an expert on everything. I don’t remember his handle but his level of insecurity was so high he would post 10, 12, 15 times a day….and ramble like you wouldn’t believe.

So…lonely freedom guy who pretends that he doesn’t have MASSIVE hangups about women, in relation to the psycho realtor from days gone by, you’re pretty stable!
————————————————————

Name was Devils Advocate .

#57 Doomer Gloomer on 12.10.15 at 8:05 pm

Give it up GT. Negative rates in Canada before the end of 2016 and no FED hike on Dec 16. Only 6 days left to find out who’s wrong and who’s right ;)

#58 Brian on 12.10.15 at 8:06 pm

Minimum of 10% down isn’t going to stop HAM from driving the 604 market. Garth its time you begin to acknowledge the mounting evidence.

Thanks for posting.

#59 pathcontrolmonk on 12.10.15 at 8:06 pm

Where is the button to unsee that last pic?

#60 OXI in GREECE on 12.10.15 at 8:08 pm

#257 Blacksheep on 12.10.15 at 5:43 pm
OXI # 248,

“The incompetence of the West is unbelievable sometimes…”
————————————
Do you really believe, the west to be, incompetent?

Really?

Think about it what your saying.

Now think about why, the US of A has failed miserably to get the job done, even with all their military might.

Connect the dots.

Yes….exactly.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

You are of course correct. But to say anything else you get labeled a conspiracy nutbar tinfoiler…..by the “actual” nutbars who are just brainwashed by MSM and Govt.

Technology will prevail……MSM is getting squeezed by every angle these days with their continual fake false BS.

#61 earthboundmisfit on 12.10.15 at 8:09 pm

I am anxiously awaiting the first “Just watch me” moment. Shouldn’t be too much longer.

#62 MF on 12.10.15 at 8:12 pm

#28 BG on 12.10.15 at 7:47 pm

Yep. And plopping all coins earned from their McJobs into their one asset strategy as a result. Lives will probably be ruined yes.

MF

#63 jess on 12.10.15 at 8:15 pm

Zuism – the growing religion of Iceland that offers rebates in this life
The religion of the ancient civilisation of Sumer has been revived in modern-day Iceland as a tax-avoidance scheme
http://www.theguardian.com/world/shortcuts/2015/dec/09/zuism-the-growing-religion-of-iceland-that-offers-rebates-in-this-life

#64 Victor V on 12.10.15 at 8:17 pm

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com//personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/cd-howe-touts-tougher-mortgage-rules-as-households-vulnerable-to-debt-rises-to-11

“There are significant pockets of vulnerability created by the growth in mortgage debt in recent years,” according to Craig Alexander, a C.D. Howe researcher and former chief economist at Toronto Dominion Bank, and Paul Jacobson, president of the Canadian Association for Business Economics. “The majority of Canadians have been responsible in their borrowing, but the sustained low interest rate environment has encouraged a significant minority to take on considerably more mortgage debt relative to after-tax income.”

New Finance Minister Bill Morneau, who was chairman of C.D. Howe before entering politics, has said housing is one of the first briefings he took from his officials. Canada has long faced international warnings about the need to head off a housing crash like those seen in the U.S., the U.K. and Spain, and former Finance Minister Jim Flaherty acted several times to tighten lending rules.

#65 tdot 416 on 12.10.15 at 8:17 pm

The only real driver of the RE market is the banks willingness to lend capital. Banks having to pay a deductible in case of loss is HUGE news and will be a game changer in 2016 if actually implemented.

Mortgages are all signed off by underwriters at the bank who besides the obvious like credit score, employment history, debt load etc.. also have internal metrics behind their approval process. If banks believe the economy is good, RE will rise and their loss is insurable then they may lend to otherwise margin lenders to protect market share.

With all major bank economists now preaching caution, that is not a good sign for lending on a go forward basis.

Watch for banks to tighten their internal requirements for loans in 2016, get ready for a slew of deals falling through, will be the first time since 2008-9 that it becomes an issue with RE.

the smart $ is getting out of RE now– look at the availability of choice commercial property in the GTA, commercial, industrial and large multiplex residential. Professional Landlords and RE investors have either already got out or are getting out.

#66 common sense on 12.10.15 at 8:23 pm

Freedom First..

Your such a clairvoyant! Your the ONLY one I bet who knew what was going to happen in Alberta. Special! I bet you retired with that knowledge making the proper investments and are just here to mingle with us little folk…

Can you look in your ball and cure cancer, tell us where Jimmy Hoffa is buried and the true story of the JFK assignation?

Stooges like us and the world would love to know.

#67 Darryl on 12.10.15 at 8:25 pm

“But the expectation is for a graduated down payment system: something like 5% for properties selling for $500,000 or less, 7% for listings up to $700,000, and a 10% down payment requirement above that figure.” – Garth

I am unclear on ‘graduated’…. if someone wants a property for $699K, does the buyer need:

a) 5% on the FIRST 500K and 7% on $199K
or
b) 7% on the entire amount

#68 juno on 12.10.15 at 8:33 pm

#8 Mark on 12.10.15 at 7:06 pm

The economy worked just fine in an era when everyone had to bring 25% down, and CMHC subprime mortgage insurance was only for the statistically lower percentiles of housing values. Typically only used by the working poor or even people on partial forms of social assistance.

=============

Yepper’s the banks will require more than a postal code.
and a heartbeat.

Remember during normal times. You had to have rev can stats for two years, prove income with paycheque remittence, expose all your debt.

That process use take at least 2/4 weeks for credit check approval. And even then, the banks may not loan you the money because they consider you has high risk..

Just a note, the new rules are going to slaughter Alberta, everyone is broke there or under employed so who can afford a downpayment especially when they don’t have income coming in.

#69 Panhead on 12.10.15 at 8:34 pm

#2 Broke Dick on 12.10.15 at 6:58 pm

You must have been selling cars at Gladstone Motors on Kingsway… thanx for the laughs …

#70 Only-inflation-to-reduce-debt-burden on 12.10.15 at 8:34 pm

what—–everrrrrrrr……

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/12/10/house-prices-toronto-vancouver_n_8774600.html?utm_hp_ref=canada

#71 Daisy Mae on 12.10.15 at 8:35 pm

“…So while the Hot One selfies across the globe and does photo shoots for Vogue, groping Sophie’s butt….”

********************

A young, happily married couple….our new Prime Minister and his wife. What is the problem? LOL

#72 JOHN on 12.10.15 at 8:43 pm

Who was it that argued that Canada hikes rates when the US hikes rates? Neat move… cut rates and hike the price of admission. Hamster. Wheel. weeeeeeeeeee!

#73 JOHN on 12.10.15 at 8:49 pm

So is this in the T2 dumpster, too? Any help Garth. Appreicated. Thanx.

Remember the 2013 fed budget pg. 145 — ‘bail-ins’ for too big to fail banks….
http://www.budget.gc.ca/2013/doc/plan/budget2013-eng.pdf

then a follow- up report on bailin-capital…
http://www.canadianstructuredfinancelaw.com/2014/09/articles/regulatory/thoughts-on-finance-canadas-recently-issued-consultation-paper-on-bailin-capital/

#74 Nagraj on 12.10.15 at 8:49 pm

For me the No.1 takeaway in “Lucky Us” was the statement that momentum is building for another BoC rate cut.
Who’s behind that momentum, I ask rhetorically.
(Certainly not our gracious host.) (Which makes me appreciate the distance between him and Bay Streeters – as I see it.)

As for the Vogue photo: it’s darkish. Not the least bit cheery or lighthearted. The photographer slanted the surface JT is sitting on, it’s at about a forty-five degree angle – anymore and Sophie would definitely be keeping JT from sliding off out of sight. The message of the photo focuses on love in a darkened and uncertain place. [A Vogue photoshoot is bad PR when the neighbouring news items are about a soaring suicide rate in AB, and rising food bank use nationally.]

Finally, the beery typo: ” . . . happening to banks because of the lager economy.”
(Lager means camp as in encampment, or storage depot.) Beerbelly banks?

#75 Vanecdotal on 12.10.15 at 8:50 pm

#49 FF

“I see white knights and manginas everywhere.”

Do you also smell burnt toast? You should see a Dr. about that!

#76 Hope & Ruin on 12.10.15 at 8:56 pm

#68 juno on 12.10.15 at 8:33 pm

My parents immigrated to Canada in the 80s. Couldn’t even get a credit card because they had no credit history from back home. Eventually having to settle for some crappy department store card with high rates to build some credit history.

A world where I am not constantly turning down credit cards, car loans, lines of credit, etc. just doesn’t exist to me.

We’ve flipped from the banks protecting themselves from crappy-borrowers. To crappy-borrowers protecting themselves from the banks. It’s bizarro-credit world.

#77 BS on 12.10.15 at 8:57 pm

“As I look at the Canadian economy,” says the chief economist at Scotiabank. “the risks are rising, not diminishing.”

No kidding. Look who is running the country.

#78 Prairieboy43 on 12.10.15 at 8:57 pm

Changed portfolio 30% maple, 70% Eagle/global. Small tweak. So far good. Thank you Garth.
Edmonton RE 9 month lag from Calgary. You can feel it coming.
Everyone complaining about NDP. I will wait. They have not destroyed anything yet. Rachael has her hands full trying to convince AB that NDP is good for the province. Yet oil at $36.00. NG at $2.06.
Soon the energy suppliers will charge nothing for gas to heat homes. Just transmission costs.
PB43

#79 Daisy Mae on 12.10.15 at 9:03 pm

#2: “The conversation turns to making a buying decision but the customer now balks. So as is expected of the salesman he calls in his manager for a T.O. (turnover).”

*****************

I recall going thru this same scenario in Puerto Vallarta — salespeople attempting to rope us into a ‘time share’ thing. We’re all familiar with this. Anyway, we played along — shuffled from one high pressure salesperson to another, until we found ourselves talking to the top guns. It didn’t do any of them any good ’cause we resisted all. Boy, was this final salesperson mad! We paid dearly for that ‘free’ buffet! LOL

#80 Chris on 12.10.15 at 9:06 pm

Increasing down pmt is not such a big deal compared to banks starting to deductible with CMHC. Brace yourself. Interest rate in Canada may be climbing faster than in the U.S. for homeowners. That cannot be good at all, especially most people are on <5 year term with the cheapest rate available. And they are stretched right now. Just imagine what would happen come renewal time.

#81 Mark on 12.10.15 at 9:06 pm

US export prices crashing:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ca/2015/12/importexport-price-deflation-export.html

“Year-over-year export prices are down 6.3% and import prices down 9.4%.”

On the mix of goods that are exported to Canada, prices are likely down even more severely than just the 6.3% drop.

This, along with RE / O&G industry-led deflationary tendencies in Canada, explains how the CAD$/USD$ pair can lose 30% in barely a year, yet prices on store shelves for imported items barely have budged.

Its not like the USA’s vegetable growers or manufacturers have abundant markets elsewhere for their production in the short-medium term. If foreign currencies are weakened against the USD$, prices have to come down to levels that are affordable by foreigners for production that is surplus to domestic demand.

#82 Mel on 12.10.15 at 9:08 pm

You harper-rites do not know when to quit, the election is over people, you lost get over it and we will see you in 4 years.

#83 Victor V on 12.10.15 at 9:09 pm

[BREAKING] John Ivison: Liberals set to tighten home ownership rules

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/john-ivison-liberals-set-to-tighten-home-ownership-rules

As reported here last week. — Garth

#84 Herethere on 12.10.15 at 9:11 pm

“As I look at the Canadian economy,” says the chief economist at Scotiabank, “the risk are rising, not diminishing.” Such a bold statement will surprise people. And as we welcome, with open arms and hearts, the new arrivals, they will be too, when they find out that it might take up to 84 month to pay out a car. But only 36 month of permanent residence, to apply for citizenship. And get the holy grail of the Canadian passport.

#85 betamax on 12.10.15 at 9:12 pm

So you’d like it better if they were both old and ugly?

I don’t judge people on their looks, good or bad. You shouldn’t either.

Where did I judge. I have previously pronounced them both hot. That includes his car. — Garth

#86 Kenchie on 12.10.15 at 9:24 pm

#20 MF on 12.10.15 at 7:19 pm
“I’ll admit I can’t stand our new government and 99% of their policies, but this one I like.”

The new government’s barely over a month old and you “can’t stand” them? You’re incredibly biased. Give your head a shake.

I highly doubt you even know 10 of their policies, so it’s impossible for you to dislike 9.9 policies. I suggest you work on being less biased and more openminded. At least you admit you like this (potential) policy that Garth is talking about.

#87 Kenchie on 12.10.15 at 9:32 pm

#22 Adam on 12.10.15 at 7:23 pm
“Any source on that rental price decrease in Calgary, Garth?

My lease is up in a couple months and I’d like to have some bargaining power.”

Check MLS, craigslist and kijiji, along with Boardwalk REIT properties for comparables available today.

Do the math to see what they are charging on a Per Square Foot Per Month basis. Compare it to what you’re paying in your current place.

#88 jane 24 on 12.10.15 at 9:32 pm

I didn’t believe about that photo of the Red Prince until I actually saw it. This is a private family photo and not one for public distribution. He is indeed grabbing her ass. It goes in the family room not in the newspapers for everyone to mock.

First the internet will have great time mucking it about and second it makes the Prime Minister of Canada look like a prat. He will live to regret this one.

Prime Ministers have to look like Prime Ministers not contestants on X Factor. I may not agree with everything that comes out of David Cameron’s mouth but heck he does have the gravitas of a statesman.

Daffodils in the South of England now in bloom.

#89 Lucky us | Realties.ca on 12.10.15 at 9:35 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/12/10/lucky-us/ […]

#90 Chris in Langley on 12.10.15 at 9:38 pm

#56 Darryl on 12.10.15 at 8:04 pm

Of course! The Devil’s Advocate! I’m sure the Devil was ticked about such lame representation. Thanks.

#91 Linda on 12.10.15 at 9:41 pm

The economy is scary enough, but for true terror I submit the CNN headline about Trump’s supporters being ‘angry & fiercely loyal’ who state ‘Trump is speaking our minds’.

Mr. Trump is who is he is but I think he falls into the category of eccentric – which w/o the vast stacks of cash translates into ‘would be committed to the nearest mental institution as s/he needs help’.

#92 Kenchie on 12.10.15 at 9:43 pm

#26 zee on 12.10.15 at 7:24 pm
“This change in down payment will have no impact, in GTA and Vancouver prices.

Bank of Mom/Dad is still around to help out.
Foreign money will continue to flow in these two cities.
Lower variable mortgage rates are coming soon.

Only significant higher rates and major layoffs will bring this market down.”

Bank of Mom and Dad will start demanding repayment soon as they retire and become dependents upon their children, in plenty of cases. Already seeing it with quite a few of my Asian friends in Vancouver. Squeezing the millennials from above and below as they have little munchkins of their own.

“Lower variable rates” are not going to be significantly lower than today. Big banks have cut down their discounts from prime already, probably in anticipation of a BoC cut, so it will be alright for current home owners, but not very helpful for new buyers.

Best big bank is HSBC at prime – 0.35%, then TD at -0.25%. In September, my aunt got RBC’s prime – 0.65%. Today should would not get that deal (currently prime +0.15%). Granted, these aren’t the big banks’ “best” rates. But it’s indicative that they aren’t as aggressive as they were a little while ago.
http://www.ratehub.ca/best-mortgage-rates/5-year/variable?scenario=purchase

Not true about major job losses or significantly higher rates being the only way to bring down the market. Boomers are retiring daily (and dying in larger numbers each day too), all while millennials are buying up shitboxes with significant debt. But once a critical mass of millennials have their house, the absolute number of Generation Z is significantly smaller than the millennials generation, so that demand we’ve been seeing by millennials over the past 4-5 years is nearly coming to an end. And of course, since demographics is a bitch, it will coincide with boomers dying in larger amounts.

So there are other things than jobs and interest rates that affect housing prices.

#93 waiting on the westcoast on 12.10.15 at 9:51 pm

Mark – 4% increase in food prices last year with additional 2-4% increase this year….

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/news/economy/grocery-and-restaurant-costs-to-gobble-up-your-budget-next-year-study-says&pubdate=2015-12-10

#94 sovereigninternational on 12.10.15 at 9:51 pm

“…and 2016 could be a watershed year for real estate.”

as I predicted here a while back like 2012 or 13. It will coincide with economy reversing all over the world particularly China(lower exports) and US(too high $). The US real estate will slow down as well. Expect a major correction in the stock market, but it will bounce back again as capital will surge from bonds to private equity. After next stock market crash expect GOLD and PMs to start a next leg of the great bull market. Oil down in doldrums long term, but expect high volatility past 2017. Real Estate Bottom in 2020-25. 30-50% accordingly. Buy property for CASH from your TFSA investments then.

#95 Meritless Future X Senator on 12.10.15 at 9:55 pm

The best thing for the CHMC, us Canadians and the market would be to place limits so it just helped people get started. Move up Mcmansions need not apply. I believe that was the original intent of the CHMC wasn’t it? I understood it was created primarily for returning veterans.

Although they don’t have the backstop of something like CHMC this is what’s driving car sales too. Congratulations on your new car. Are you excited? Just let me get some info from you, click, click on the keyboard and about four seconds later yeah that credit score looks good. How about 0% and 84 months with a bi-weekly payment of X$. When would you like to pick your new car up.

There could be a lot of price reduced houses, cars and various toys for sale soon the way things are going.

#96 Jack Smith on 12.10.15 at 9:55 pm

Interest rates are too low, no way! Pay people interest on mortgages to buy houses.

Everyone that jumped on the cut interest rates to the bone bandwagon are such hypocrites!

#97 Nanaimo Bar on 12.10.15 at 9:55 pm

# 57 Doomer and Gloomer.
“Give it up GT. Negative rates in Canada before the end of 2016 and no FED hike on Dec 16. Only 6 days left to find out who’s wrong and who’s right ;)”

One thing that I have learned from being on this huge mud ball, is never bet against the Fed. Also, never bet against Garth Turner. You are going to lose. Pay attention to what Garth is saying. A U.S. Fed rate hike is a done deal. As Garth mentioned, the BOC may do a rate cut but eventually the BOC will follow the U.S. Fed and hike rates. Stay tuned.

#98 jane 24 on 12.10.15 at 9:56 pm

… and I note that Sophie is in an Oscar de la Renata dress. This designer frock cost thousands. This really rubs the noses of non-multimillionaire Canadians. Very poor political move to wear it. Very do as I say and not what I do. Bad politics.

Kate Middletown wears a lot of regular British High Street clothes to avoid this ‘I’m a millionaire and you are not’ look.

At least Canadians have 4 years of further comedy to come. You can’t beat a good laugh in a recession.

#99 paul on 12.10.15 at 10:02 pm

#16 CP on 12.10.15 at 7:16 pm

“Is it just me but he does not look like Prime Minister material.”

It’s just you, but that’s okay you’re probably old
————————————————————-
I guess it would be fine to have a photo of your daughter with a guys hand on her ass, It most likely happens a lot!

#100 BG on 12.10.15 at 10:02 pm

#62 MF on 12.10.15 at 8:12 pm

Yep. And plopping all coins earned from their McJobs into their one asset strategy as a result. Lives will probably be ruined yes.

MF

——————————————————————

Your recent Millennial bashing is intriguing. To me it seems pointless and give hints of someone who is slowly but surely getting bitter and out of touch.
I may be wrong though.

Is financial literacy incompatible with tattoos, clubbing, weed? I don’t like any of them by the way, but it just happens to be the way you want to frame Milleninals.

Are just trying to fit in this comments section or really growing some kind of superiority complex?

#101 Randy Randerson on 12.10.15 at 10:03 pm

#49 Freedom First on 12.10.15 at 7:56 pm

Just ignore the Blue Pills.

#102 espressobob on 12.10.15 at 10:07 pm

Global index investors have the advantage. No market timing or speculation required. Nice!

http://www.blackrock.com/ca/individual/en/products/239697/ishares-msci-world-index-etf

Don’t forget to rebalance.

#103 IHCTD9 on 12.10.15 at 10:09 pm

Harper steadily knocked the deficit down in the years following the GFC.

He had it down to 5.2 billion in 2014.

Amid the cacophony of furious typing by the Trudeau apologists, be careful not to rip Harper too large of a new one, lest you become obligated to rip Trudeau a new one you could drive a car through 4 years from now.

Come on Libs, you’re all starting to come down off the high now right? You feeling a little nervous?

Please, I’d like to hear some more excuses for T2, preferably ones involving Harper.

Trudeau will probably have himself 20 billion in the hole by this time next year. He is going to turn Harpers gentle downward slope into a ski jump.

Go ahead, tell me I’m wrong…

#104 Mithridates on 12.10.15 at 10:10 pm

Just echoing another comment about the bank of mom & dad. There was that survey a month or two ago about how those in their 50s or so are spending a lot of money helping out their kids, and what happens if this just grows, thereby keeping the real estate market bubbly and just keeping the elderly working for longer than they should be to sustain it?

#105 young & foolish on 12.10.15 at 10:13 pm

“Remember during normal times … ”

I like that sentiment. But now, with unprecedented debts being carried by everyone, everywhere, who can expect more “growth”?

#106 Observer on 12.10.15 at 10:13 pm

I want a selfie with the new finance minister if higher DP goes through….middle class families are being pushed out. Long overdue.

#107 Randy Randerson on 12.10.15 at 10:15 pm

I really have to wonder why the MSM has such a fascination with T2. Is it because he’s good looking and has a wife, and is basically the poster child for selling the Disney fantasy to women? I mean, he’s the PM of a country, what woman wouldn’t want to pork that and wears the pants at home.

#108 Herb on 12.10.15 at 10:15 pm

Gee, Garth, weren’t you on the facebook distribution for the picture of T2 wrapping half of himself in the Maple Leaf flag while exposing his bare other half to adulation?

The Nixonian “ratfk” is alive and well and living in the shadows of the Conservative Party of Canada.

#109 paul on 12.10.15 at 10:16 pm

#82 Mel on 12.10.15 at 9:08 pm

You harper-rites do not know when to quit, the election is over people, you lost get over it and we will see you in 4 years.
————————————————————-
Why should we the Liberal-ites like yourself bitch for two terms non stop.Lol

#110 For those about to flop... on 12.10.15 at 10:18 pm

#267 common sense on 12.10.15 at 6:51 pm
BROKE DICK, FLOPPER…

I’m proud to be in such good company as you fine humble gentlemen.

No profanity, no large egos, maturity and we get along just swell with the opposite sex…

/////////////////////////////////////
Not to sure how we became the Rat Pack but I can handle it if you guys can.
The boss tries to make finance fun, there are a lot of people on here that haven’t worked that out yet.
Bet they could tell you to the cent how much money they made this year though…funny that!

#111 young & foolish on 12.10.15 at 10:27 pm

“Global index investors have the advantage. No market timing or speculation required. Nice!”

Yes, you can float above all the regional and worldly concerns down below (like commodity routs) … all the while growing your way to the stars (and Main Streets down below, be damned)! Utopia.

#112 Mark on 12.10.15 at 10:28 pm

“Harper steadily knocked the deficit down in the years following the GFC. “

How do we really know the deficit ran by Harper in those years when the extent of CMHC’s liabilities is very likely mis-stated?

If we study the totality of Harper’s record, his governments added ~$250B of new government borrowing. And encumbered the CMHC for hundreds of billions of additional contingent guarantees. GFC or not, I’m not sure how anyone can spin this as ‘good’.

#113 common sense on 12.10.15 at 10:28 pm

#107 Randy Randerson…

Seen a lot of things on this forum but never in a million years thought I’d seethe word “Pork” used in that classic form.

Thanks. I haven’t laughed that hard this year.

#114 takla on 12.10.15 at 10:30 pm

re#69 Panhead….or if were going back further in car dealer rip-off history{76′} how about “Kelly cars” corner of imperial and Kingsway…bought my first 66′ mustang gt there,drove it off the curb and got exactly 2 blocks before a rod went thru the block!

#115 Smoking Man on 12.10.15 at 10:33 pm

If this doesn’t make you believe in Nectonite’s
Nothing will.

Enjoy

Nectonite Name: гигантски пенис
Earth Name: Jay Smokeweedon
Blog Name: Dr. Smoking Man

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vYIk2kfiL0Q

#116 Silver on 12.10.15 at 10:39 pm

wow
now its 20% of the condos are Ham hot money
love to see the Proof, not the facts on this one

Better buy now or be foreever priced out of the prperty ladder( how many times have we heard this one…

I’m tired of the entitled horde with all their off shore manufactured products…
the I-tec. nuts come to mind… They are particularly bad in the best place on earth.
… all complaining about Ham buying product here (property). yah right.
So Ham’s are good enough to build your shit but not good enough to live beside you… does the word racist come to mind…(Vancouver’s alphabet university arts community is full of this…racist cr..)

And Ham’s do this with the profit they made producing something of actual tangable value for this entitled horde.

Meanwhile 90% of canadians have invested in government jobs, tax breaks, real estate, and phone apps.

you can guess what percent actually produces gdp…
you know gets their hands dirty… i know so old school..

and their getting slaughtered by the above free stuff horde right now…

so

syncrude sweet $37.61
WCS $23.51
for january delivery
that won’t affect the economy… right

and then if thats not bad enough
…. we now have Russia actually bombing ISIS oil export points (how they make money to create a refugee problem)… that the west could not find for 1 1/2 years in Syria… with all the billions we spent there…

and we have a selfee prime minister… to handle global politics…

sucks to be us…
Best of luck in the new year

Silver

#117 IHCTD9 on 12.10.15 at 10:41 pm

#100 BG on 12.10.15 at 10:02 pm
#62 MF on 12.10.15 at 8:12 pm

Yep. And plopping all coins earned from their McJobs into their one asset strategy as a result. Lives will probably be ruined yes.

MF

——————————————————————

Your recent Millennial bashing is intriguing. To me it seems pointless and give hints of someone who is slowly but surely getting bitter and out of touch.
I may be wrong though.

Is financial literacy incompatible with tattoos, clubbing, weed? I don’t like any of them by the way, but it just happens to be the way you want to frame Milleninals.

Are just trying to fit in this comments section or really growing some kind of superiority complex?
————-

I work with several millennials, they’re all good guys.

But they’re either completely fkd financially, or walking the razors edge with a mortgage on a single average income.

My experience with this age group pretty much lines up with MF’s observations.

Here is one thing I have learned about millennials by watching them, and I pass this pearl of wisdom on to you, free of charge, so you can pass it on to your buddies.

Tell them in a commanding voice:

“Thou shalt not attempt to buy thyself a house on a single income. If thou counteth only but one stream of income, then thou shalt renteth until such days pass that thy purse be be overflowing with US funds. Therefore, go now with wisdom, and decendeth into thy basement abode. Bide thy time for sunny ways my friend, as the budgeteth shall balanceth itself.”

#118 MF on 12.10.15 at 10:42 pm

#100 BG on 12.10.15 at 10:02 pm

Bitter? Yup. Election night was a joke on my Facebook. Heard all about weed and Trudeau none stop. Hear about it from my friends as well. Out of touch though? Nope.

Superiority complex? I come here to learn like everyone else. Like Garth said we don’t matter anyways. I could care less if I “fit in”.

By the way, did you want Boomer bashing instead? My boomer parents have given me everything in life (and are against RE) so I’m not going down that route. Our generation is partially responsible for this mess and it’s time we realized that.

MF

#119 LP on 12.10.15 at 10:43 pm

#98 jane 24 on 12.10.15 at 9:56 pm
*****************
You seem easily outraged. What can be wrong with a young married couple, obviously in love and enjoying their success, manifesting their happiness and youth in a public photo? And your characterization of him “grabbing her ass” says more about you than about their embrace.

And by the way, the dress is borrowed.

#120 Washed Up Lawyer on 12.10.15 at 10:46 pm

For the Cowtown market, ReMax is waging a valiant rearguard action, brimming with optimism, and predicting only a 4% decline in house prices in 2016.

They say the luxury market will be ragdolled (like Zdeno Chara’s opponents in his NHL fisticuffs) while the $450K market will hold strong.

Its agents must hate reading this blog.

http://calgaryherald.com/business/real-estate/calgary-house-prices-expected-to-fall-4-in-2016-remax

#121 Bobs ur uncle on 12.10.15 at 10:53 pm

Why does the new PM bother to pose for swanky photos? He doesn’t have anything better to do with his time? I don’t think many laid off Albertans are going to be impressed. Is this your appeal to the middle class? Bad optics.

Though I’m sure it plays well to the people who actually buy Vogue – which is like everyone on this blog right? ;)

As to the new rules – ’bout time they at least had the deductible so the banks have some skin in the game. Will be interesting to see if/how eligibility tightens up.

#122 Trading Naked on 12.10.15 at 11:02 pm

Those who dump on “Freedom First” are forgetting his altruism: he helps others by taking time out of his day to tell them that the only valid and optimal way to live life and achieve financial success is to live it exactly as he does. No exception. Any variations on his methods, adapted to one’s circumstances or interests while still in pursuit of a similar end, are simply impossible.

#123 Moses71 on 12.10.15 at 11:08 pm

Handsome hunk!! Thanks, Garth for the switch to hot pics of a man!
Phew!

Relax. I got a dog in there, too. — Garth

#124 Vundo on 12.10.15 at 11:09 pm

I certainly don’t approve of Freedom First’s views on women, but how he lives his life is his choice. Haters, you have to ask yourselves: “am I as true to myself as he is to himself?” Something to think about.

RE: Garth’s post: this is a good affirmation of those of us millenials who have chosen balance and diversity over greed and insanity.

#125 IHCTD9 on 12.10.15 at 11:10 pm

#112 Mark on 12.10.15 at 10:28 pm
“Harper steadily knocked the deficit down in the years following the GFC. “

How do we really know the deficit ran by Harper in those years when the extent of CMHC’s liabilities is very likely mis-stated?

If we study the totality of Harper’s record, his governments added ~$250B of new government borrowing. And encumbered the CMHC for hundreds of billions of additional contingent guarantees. GFC or not, I’m not sure how anyone can spin this as ‘good’.
————-

Mark buddy, why don’t you tell me about how Trudeau is going to fix it all up? I was really hoping for change and all that.

Harper chopped the deficit for 5 consecutive years in a row, surely Trudeau will do much better than that right?

So what’s your bet? Surplus in 3 years? Maybe even 2? Justin could never be worse than Harper right? No one could be worse than Harper!!

Go ahead and fill me in, I’ll go get my shovel…

#126 Freedom First on 12.10.15 at 11:11 pm

#66 common sense

You just don’t understand.

#127 family beagle on 12.10.15 at 11:12 pm

Housing prices will never go down in Toronto and Vancouver (in CAD$ terms) because for every Canadian citizen who cannot afford a home, there are several more foreigners who can. There are no restrictions on foreign ownerwhip and there are unlikely to be restrictions. Local Canadians compete directly with the world’s wealthiest for shelter and Canadians are handicapped by a depreciating currency. This paradigm reflects Canadian political will and the electorate.

At least 95% of YVR real estate sales are to locals and other Canadians. — Garth

#128 Leo Trollstoy on 12.10.15 at 11:15 pm

#6 Victoria on 12.10.15 at 7:05 pm

“Home sales in Vancouver soared by 40 per cent in November, compared to a year earlier.
Prices for single-family homes in suburban Toronto jumped 13.5 per cent in the past year, an increase of nearly $100,000 on average. Affordability in the GTA is the worst it’s been in more than two decades.”

Spot on. Thus far, Vancouver and Toronto have been different animals than the rest of Canada with prices consistently rising despite the sales mix. In fact there is absolutely no evidence out there that shows otherwise. It’s sad. And it’s going to make the fall all the more difficult when it happens.

#129 Patrick on 12.10.15 at 11:17 pm

#30 JSS on 12.10.15 at 7:27 pm

JSS = good handle. Cool reference, very relevant.

#130 Leo Trollstoy on 12.10.15 at 11:20 pm

– Banks to shoulder more risk
– Growing odds of another BoC rate cut

I hope so. Let’s speed things along already. Get to the end-game.

#131 kilby on 12.10.15 at 11:21 pm

paul on 12.10.15 at 7:01 pm
Is it just me but he does not look Prime Minister material.

Stephen Harper certainly didn’t. What does a Prime minister need to look like?

#132 family beagle on 12.10.15 at 11:24 pm

Canadians = posers.
I enter exhibit A above, our supreme leader, as evidence and rest my case.
(Putin in one round. Anytime, any place.)

#133 Bram on 12.10.15 at 11:25 pm

#76 Hope & Ruin on 12.10.15 at 8:56 pm
**My parents immigrated to Canada in the 80s. Couldn’t even get a credit card because they had no credit history from back home.**

I immigrated in ’07, and RBC would only give me a CC if I bought a GIC as collateral, which I did.
So even then they were still cautious, even though I had a handsome salary.

#134 ben on 12.10.15 at 11:28 pm

Pity they aren’t linking it to median wages then they could hammer Montreal speculators too.

Ah well.

#135 Patrick on 12.10.15 at 11:29 pm

#61 earthboundmisfit on 12.10.15 at 8:09 pm
I am anxiously awaiting the first “Just watch me” moment. Shouldn’t be too much longer.
______________________________________

That clip of Pierre Trudeau shows how smart and principled he was. Under fire and heavy criticism he stuck to his guns. Never wavered or supplicated. You can see him carefully considering every question and his response. Slowly turning the tables on the reporter.

I can’t imagine T2 in a situation like that without breaking into a rendition of Why can’t we be friends

#136 Leo Trollstoy on 12.10.15 at 11:31 pm

#93 waiting on the westcoast on 12.10.15 at 9:51 pm

He’s immune to evidence.

That’s why he doesn’t post any.

Just FYI

#137 Leo Trollstoy on 12.10.15 at 11:33 pm

One thing that I have learned from being on this huge mud ball, is never bet against the Fed. Also, never bet against Garth Turner.

These are good rules.

#138 Smoking Man on 12.10.15 at 11:36 pm

From Dec 7th.
Everyone and his brother thought, that’s it, trumps done.

Except for your little old Nectonite residing in LongBranch, and sharing Real intel with you ungreatfull blog dogs.

He’s killing it…

A black belt of a Smoking Man.

..

#201 Smoking Man on 12.07.15 at 11:23 am
Trump soaring in the polls.

MSM on full frontal attack mode. What the machine hasn’t figured out yet.

MSM about as popular as congress is. The more they attack him, the stronger he gets.

Sadly, It takes a dyslexic drunk to figure it out.

#139 Washed Up Lawyer on 12.10.15 at 11:39 pm

Hon. Yeoman:

Allow me another comment. While reflecting on the election of the T2 gov’t, I thought that the happiest branch of the federal civil service had to be the Dept. of Justice lawyers. I bet they partied their butts of on October 19. If you cannot litigate with a hangover, you will never make it as a litigator.

Can you imagine heading over to the Supreme Court day after day only to have Bev and the Supremes punch you in the mush when you had no arguments to defend what Harpo’s bunch was doing?

The DOJ lawyers’ reputation and integrity was never impaired in the minds those in red robes with ermine collars. They knew full well who counsel was taking instructions from.

Now they will have a winning record.

#140 Mark on 12.10.15 at 11:44 pm

Wow, some desperate times unfolding in Calgary. People are stealing copper from Enmax transformer sites:

http://enmaxonforyou.ca/copper-theft-is-on-the-rise/

At a buck or so per pound as scrap, we’re talking about such little amounts of money here. That is, if the thieves are smart enough to be able to remove copper without touching energized components.

#141 For those about to flop... on 12.10.15 at 11:44 pm

#120 Vundo on 12.10.15 at 11:09 pm
I certainly don’t approve of Freedom First’s views on women, but how he lives his life is his choice. Haters, you have to ask yourselves: “am I as true to myself as he is to himself?” Something to think about.

///////////////////////////////////////////

You know what ,I am absolutely fine saying my wife is 50% of my marriage. I don’t need to own her ,tell her who’s boss and all that other crap.
If you disrespect your partner ,you are just disrespecting yourself.
I treat my wife how I like to be treated ,so yeah I’m true to myself.
Females First (sic ) is so vain he puts small mirrors on top of big mirrors in his house.

#142 Smoking Man on 12.10.15 at 11:46 pm

#122 Moses71 on 12.10.15 at 11:08 pm
Handsome hunk!! Thanks, Garth for the switch to hot pics of a man!
Phew!

Relax. I got a dog in there, too. — Garth

Garth being an public person, understands we are under assault by cultural Marxism. Wont dare put a pic of a camel toe chart, or big brested Russian chic Hidding em in a fur coat.

Jesus, that might get you arrested..

Apparently, there is a movement in the USA, if your wheeling a hottie, and have consensual woopee.

If you lied and said your the manager of McDonalds, but you’re really the Burger flipper. They want to be able too charged with rape…

I’m not making it up….Google.

#143 common sense on 12.10.15 at 11:48 pm

#124 Vundo

Never hatred…

#122 Naked

Thank you sincerely.

#144 No debt on 12.10.15 at 11:51 pm

#66 common sense – LMFAO
I’m surprised freedom first doesn’t have his own blog, he could just repeat everything Garth says or hears! He sure has a man crush on Garth.

#145 fishman on 12.10.15 at 11:52 pm

How’s the Christmas parties coming. My first one this year.”Pranzo Di Natale” put on by “Italian Boys Club”. About 450 businessmen. Tables at 10 for $1750. No muzac, no bands. no celebrities, no photographs (or photographers), no selfies, no women but,well a dozen Ladies. Santa’s little elvettes. I mean its not just guys, its Italian guys. They haven’t got any interest in festive holiday decorations , but a little Santa hat, little white furry fluff top, little red pants with 8″ heels, perfect holiday ambience,

The entertainment consists of an M.C. He isn’t even Italian. Short,roundish, baldish, sweating, foggy glasses, unfunny, bordering on disgusting even for this crowd. Not that anybody paid any attention to his schtik I think he’s Jewish/

These guys go home to mama for her meatballs on Sunday so the food better be good, and it is. They put Santa’s 12 elvette disciples on stage to eat at the long straight head table. Everyone else sits below at their round 10 man tables. Italian catholics, maybe its an inside joke.

After dinner, auctions & prizes &reverse draw . Everybody can understand the MC now. Its 10 grand if your the last # called so getting down to the end is a lot of fun. I got as far as the high teens & you want to win if only for the notoriety one gets for a year. A crowd gathers below the little MC, who busy reading out the numbers, keeping order & ordering the Ladies off the tables. They seem to listen to him, of course they also listen to the bad boys getting them up to dance. When the numbers get down to single digits, quite the play below the MC Deals,tranches, partnerships,elvettes working the crowd. Matter of fact you could close your eyes and be right there throwing dice among the Roman soldiers for the seamless robe.

But hey $50, 000 for a christmas charity every year for the last 13. They all showed, some like the market guys dropping millions, crushed, black humour & the OTC. Their the ones that fly Van to Cabo via Spain. Very nervous about a “mechanical diversion”on the way down . Some grinding R/E out of the east end since the 70’s, big winners, and everyone in-between. We all wish you a Merry Christmas.

What ever happened to Italians Love Real Estate? How about blessing us with your presence & share a TO Italian Christmas Party.

.

#146 Bottoms_Up on 12.10.15 at 11:59 pm

#88 jane 24 on 12.10.15 at 9:32 pm
———————————-
I disagree…it shows love and passion, and certainly is better than Harper’s xmas sweater or his handshake with his daughter.

You want to know why T2 won the election? He showed passion, yes passion, for our great country.

#147 Bottoms_Up on 12.11.15 at 12:09 am

#99 paul on 12.10.15 at 10:02 pm
———————————–
Technically that would be called a ‘hip’. Oh yea, their also married. Oh yea, they also have three kids. Stork must have brought those right?

#148 cramar on 12.11.15 at 12:11 am

One of the lead features on the news tonight was the UoG prediction of significant rising food prices in Canada due to the falling Loon. The first thing I thought of was there is a perfect storm coming! With many people at their financial limits and some over extended with mortgage payments, people cannot afford rising food prices. If the Loon is sacrificed, this is going to impact EVERY pocket even more!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/food-prices-2016-1.3358980

When does the Gov’t. support the currency so that people get some food relief? Everyone has to eat, but not everyone needs to buy a house! Does it take demonstrations in the streets before our new Prince & Princess T. start to realize that a weak dollar is not good for the majority of Canadians who unfortunately have to eat!

#149 Bottoms_Up on 12.11.15 at 12:11 am

#90 Chris in Langley on 12.10.15 at 9:38 pm
——————————–
He also still posts here occasionally, or was he banned for a fourth time?

#150 Mark on 12.11.15 at 12:14 am

“Mark buddy, why don’t you tell me about how Trudeau is going to fix it all up? I was really hoping for change and all that.”

I really haven’t an idea of just what the magic ‘fix’ is, aside from severe public servant compensation cuts which probably aren’t ideologically in Trudeau’s “cards”. But I do know that the longer that the housing bubble is allowed to continue, even at levels which are only minorly lower than their 2013 apex, the worse the implosion will in length, depth, and severity.

Best case scenario, IMHO, is that they allow the bubble to crash at a rate quick enough to severely truncate new investment in housing rapidly, while other sectors are stimulated by the newly liberated investment dollars.

But I do believe that Trudeau is largely at the mercy of factors outside of Canada’s borders as to whether Canada can snap back quickly and find new sources of demand to satiate in industries for which Canada possesses a legitimate competitive advantage.

On that note, anyone been noticing *huge* spikes in their PM stocks after-hours that dissipate a short time later? Its a somewhat ‘weird’ experience, to say the least, to find one’s (small) portfolio is up $10k half an hour after the end of the trading day, only to come back half an hour later and find that the after-hour gains are mostly gone?

After-hour margin calls?? Reminds me a lot of 1999-2000 and the tech stocks. Albeit at the top, not at the bottom.

#151 Sideshow Rob on 12.11.15 at 12:17 am

“PET Jr. was probably chosen by the Liberal Party as their “show boy” whose main purpose is to distract the fickle public/voters from the real issues facing the nation, while the true power brokers behind the scenes manipulate his strings and set government policy.”

The Libs originally wanted to get someone slightly smarter but Derek Zoolander wasn’t available. True story.

#152 IHCTD9 on 12.11.15 at 12:18 am

#140 Bottoms_Up on 12.10.15 at 11:59 pm

You want to know why T2 won the election? He showed passion, yes passion, for our great country.
————

Looks more like passion for spending our great country’s money to me.

#153 Chris on 12.11.15 at 12:18 am

Two points irrelevant to today’s post. Trump will not win the election. He is just entertainment. Second point, believe it is time for the transportation department to be shaken up and look at the outdated transportation infrastructure in Toronto. They need to tune the duration of all the traffic lights (or make them smart ones) and re examine the warning signs for lane merging, etc. Many of the on ramps and lanes for 401 are not long enough. As the user population/number of cars grow, it is becoming very dangerous. The on ramp from Brock street to 401 west in Whitby is like maybe less than 5 seconds long travelling at 100 km an hour. You turn your head once and if not safe to merge then you are out of ramp. How is that safe?!

#154 ANON on 12.11.15 at 12:19 am

What does a Prime minister need to look like?

During expansion: Pensive.
During suspended animation: Wile E. Coyote
During contraction: Diabolical.
:)

#155 l on 12.11.15 at 12:22 am

I don’t see how raising the downpayment now could have any impact when homes in Toronto and Vancouver are all well above the million dollar threshold.

So another nothing will happen thing by the government.

#156 MF on 12.11.15 at 12:23 am

#86 Kenchie on 12.10.15 at 9:24 pm

lol you give your head a shake.

We have had weeks and weeks of posts from Garth about how we are about to taxed more and lied to at the same time.

Does that sound like this government is off to a good start? Doesn’t to me.

I voted for two things: TFSA and foreign policy. Both of which I think our new government has messed up (yes in 1 month).

MF

#157 45north on 12.11.15 at 12:23 am

Even with just days to go before the Fed increase, and our dollar at 73 cents, momentum is building for the Bank of Canada to cut its key rate for the third time.

Bank of Canada cutting its rates as US raises its would sink the Cdn dollar. How is this not going to raise the price of cars?

we voted for change, and here it is

#158 Nanaimo Bar on 12.11.15 at 12:25 am

#103 Leo

“I hope so. Let’s speed things along already. Get to the end-game.”

Gotta luv the U.S. Fed slogan on raising rates “Just do it”.

#159 IHCTD9 on 12.11.15 at 12:28 am

#150 Mark on 12.11.15 at 12:14 am
“Mark buddy, why don’t you tell me about how Trudeau is going to fix it all up? I was really hoping for change and all that.”

I really haven’t an idea of just what the magic ‘fix’ is, aside from severe public servant compensation cuts which probably aren’t ideologically in Trudeau’s “cards”.
———–

That’s about it, nothing in Trudeau’s hand as far as easing the pain that is coming.

Instead, he will send billions down various ideological rat holes while praying he can squeeze it 4 more years before the whole thing implodes.

If Trudeau doesn’t smarten up, no one is going to want to run for PM when he is finished.

I feel bad for Bill.

#160 JSS on 12.11.15 at 12:29 am

I think I have the hots for JT.

Is this wrong, considering I’m a married man with children?

#161 MF on 12.11.15 at 12:32 am

#86 Kenchie on 12.10.15 at 9:24 pm

#208 Mr. Frugal on 12.10.15 at 12:51 pm

Kenchie this was a great post from yesterday:

“What a libtard! You talk of “low hanging fruit” and immediately brand anyone that disagrees with your point of view as a bigot. It would seem that YOU are the low hanging fruit.”

-For years all I heard on this forum from was how bad Harper was (when in fact Canada was doing better than it is now). Harper was blamed for everyone’s screw ups. Single mom? Harper did that. Childcare too expensive? Harper did that. Car insurance going up? Harper did that etc. etc. etc.

Now, when the country is clearly floundering, and we have the epitome of superficial in power now, a wannabe JFK, trying to mesmerize/deceive people with selfie’s and pseude CK models.. you say we should be “open minded”. Yeah right.

MF

#162 MF on 12.11.15 at 12:45 am

#124 Vundo on 12.10.15 at 11:09 pm

Freedom First is great. It upsets a lot of people because he speaks the truth and he knows it. He takes it in stride which upsets people even more.

Now i’m not anti marriage by any means. My buddies are slowly starting to tie the knots and they appear happy. But I will say I work with the public and I always get the same questions from the older dudes or married guys when their wives are not around:

How old are you? 32
Are you married? No
“Good boy”

Can’t tell you how many times that has happened. Seems there are lots of guys out there who are not entirely happy with their situation.

MF

#163 Leroy Washington on 12.11.15 at 12:51 am

Canada: goodbye and good riddance! Filth.

#164 earlybird on 12.11.15 at 1:32 am

Rents have come down quite a bit in Calgary. People with rental properties sitting empty will start to hurt! When you add it all up in AB, low oil price, hostile business environment, food inflation, new fart tax, mass layoffs, outmigration, minimum wage increase, higher tax for the well off, low loonie, and a few I forget, It reminds me of and Article floating around about Calgary becoming a Detroit….I thought it was insane at the time. I think I may give that a re-read.

#165 waiting on the westcoast on 12.11.15 at 1:53 am

#145 fishman on 12.10.15 at 11:52 pm
“How’s the Christmas parties coming. My first one this year.”Pranzo Di Natale” put on by “Italian Boys Club”.”

Didn’t go this year…. It frightens me when I watch the Nonno’s getting a little too jazzed up… :-)

#166 waiting on the westcoast on 12.11.15 at 2:05 am

Interesting article on an inflection point forming in the HK RE market… Could this foreshadow a retreat in prices in Vancouver in the near future?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-10/hong-kong-on-the-brink-as-developers-offer-stealth-price-cuts

#167 BS on 12.11.15 at 2:08 am

family beagle on 12.10.15 at 11:12 pm
Housing prices will never go down in Toronto and Vancouver (in CAD$ terms) because for every Canadian citizen who cannot afford a home, there are several more foreigners who can. There are no restrictions on foreign ownerwhip and there are unlikely to be restrictions.

For all you who believe foreigners are driving prices in Vancouver and Toronto therefore prices can never come down there is a big flaw in this thesis.

We know the government wants to cool housing in Vancouver and Toronto. The increase in DP and other prior tightening proves that. As well, part of the Liberals election platform was to make housing more affordable in Vancouver and Toronto. If it was foreigners driving the market then the government could change that with a stroke of a pen. Just restrict foreign purchases. If foreigners were driving housing prices this would be their easiest election promise to keep and it would piss off few Canadians.

I would not want to have all of my net worth tied up in one asset that could collapse with a simple change in government policy. If foreigners were supporting the market that would make it higher risk and be more of a reason to get out than if locals were supporting it.

Either way when something is over valued it always corrects. It didn’t matter that government pension funds and Saudi Princes were buying tech stocks in 1999. They were way overvalued and the prices collapsed.

#168 Freedom First on 12.11.15 at 2:43 am

Randy Randerson

Roger that.

#169 april on 12.11.15 at 2:55 am

#146 – No, it was because the majority wanted H out…….

#170 april on 12.11.15 at 2:59 am

#128 – The big cities always go up first and last to go down. Nothing special about Van or Toronto.

#171 DON on 12.11.15 at 3:23 am

#118 MF on 12.10.15 at 10:42 pm
#100 BG on 12.10.15 at 10:02 pm

Bitter? Yup. Election night was a joke on my Facebook. Heard all about weed and Trudeau none stop. Hear about it from my friends as well. Out of touch though? Nope.

Superiority complex? I come here to learn like everyone else. Like Garth said we don’t matter anyways. I could care less if I “fit in”.

By the way, did you want Boomer bashing instead? My boomer parents have given me everything in life (and are against RE) so I’m not going down that route. Our generation is partially responsible for this mess and it’s time we realized that.

MF
****************************

All they are saying – if you want to ensure you make balanced decisions be objective and rely on credible facts rather than making any assumptions. Keep an open mind try not to let ideology affect your decisions. Balance mind, balance portfolio… there is always more to learn especially as the context changes throughout your lifespan. No need to fit in. We all have some value to this blog. (ahh! – I’m tearing up now.)

OH yah and…POT-BOOMERS-WOODSTOCK! HIPPIES BOOMERS, COCAINE 80’s – enough said? “Who’s coming with me?”

“Negative Ghost Rider the Pattern is Full’. Legalize it all, tax, regulate, keep out of the hands of children. “Problem Solved” at the very least lets stop talking and take a balanced approach.

Live life man! I don’t think T2 is the real deal either, never did, just the trend and a kick the other ego out the door. “Son, your ego is writing checks your body can’t cash” Now he has to deliver. No need to become a conservative vs liberal or democrat that doesn’t mean sh*t – try not to get caught up in it – our current governing processes needs fundamental changes/updates, as well as the appropriate safeguards.

Take care!

#172 DON on 12.11.15 at 3:37 am

#56 Darryl on 12.10.15 at 8:04 pm
#12 Chris in Langley on 12.10.15 at 7:09 pm
#200 Broke Dick on 12.10.15 at 12:02 pm

#112 Freedom First on 12.09.15 at 10:33 pm
#67 common sense

Name was Devils Advocate
****************

Yup…he took a whooping on this blog but in the early days when real estate was still booming in Kelowna. Hardly mentioned here anymore. Deal with him was like caging a wild animal. To be shortly known as the good old days!

How old is this blog? How long have we been here? How did we get here? and Who drove?….Is there a test at the end?

#173 DON on 12.11.15 at 3:42 am

Where’s Nosty?

#174 Sherri on 12.11.15 at 4:25 am

The picture is nice, apart from the colours all clashing….seriously, who dressed them?….., but I don’t think it’s quite appropriate. Yes, maybe I’m old fashioned, but if you want to be taken seriously and respectfully, and you’re the leader of the country, a little less “sexy” would be better – do we really need to feed the media this kind of fodder? The Prime Minister should be held to a high standard. Anyway, I’m done my rant……

#175 David W on 12.11.15 at 4:26 am

It’s 3:30 am and my mind to going to work and thinking about what to do with my portfolio.

Questions for you Garth:

Should I sell my portfolio which is overweight Canadian and realize the losses and then diversify what’s left or hold for a better time?

#176 Nagraj on 12.11.15 at 5:42 am

speaking of stylistic range

“understanding how massively we have hitched our wagon to a single, emotional asset class”
hitch your wagon to a star – Ralph Wald Emerson, 1862
(for massively assume securely)
pluralizing the metaphor is daring (awfully big wagon)

“2016 could be a watershed year for real estate”
watershed usually wants to be followed by moment, but watershed experience is perfectly all right
it’s a dramatic bird’s-eye-view image, vast like the aforementioned wagon

“[banks] while washing their hands of risk”
hello bible
shoulda been the banking industry while washing ITS hands, cuz what we gits here is a mess of little Pontius Pilates which is kinda funny
again, pluralizing

Translating macro stats exactly into images is very difficult, and into appropriate dramatic forms practically impossible, in my opinion. (Obviously I have time on my hands.)

#177 George S on 12.11.15 at 8:05 am

From an earlier post by someone who doesn’t like T2 for some reason:
“Harper chopped the deficit for 5 consecutive years in a row, surely Trudeau will do much better than that right?”

I seem to remember when Harper took over there was a $15B annual surplus that was being used to pay down the accumulated debt that was largely made up of gross overspending (or undertaxing or screwing our children or whatever the term for non-conservative party deficits is) by the PC’s under Mulroney. This surplus was the result of the Liberals fiscal policies. Harper was only reducing his very own annual deficit by his policies designed around a fixed election date to have the lowest possible deficit in the election year.
T2 takes selfies. What is wrong with that? At least no cost to taxpayers for a professional photographer to tag along on all the junkets.
I like the photo.

#178 Raven on 12.11.15 at 8:46 am

I do recall when Pierre (his excellency) Trudeau was “fuddying” around there was a time he went into the masonry business! Sure, Margaret was laying The Stones!

#179 Tony on 12.11.15 at 8:54 am

It doesn’t look good for stocks today (Or likely on Monday). Interestingly the volatility index was green all day yesterday even with the market indexes up a fair amount (something rarely seen). The volatility index is up huge today well before the open with the market indexes sinking.

#180 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.11.15 at 9:42 am

Another day another “Global News” story about real estate in BC.
6pm news. Global “interviews” a remax spokesperson and surprise surprise.
2016 will be another great year to buy in Vancouver.
Will the BC bullshit ever end?

#181 fancy_pants on 12.11.15 at 10:04 am

with photo ops like this the Right Honorable’s better half could give the Duchess of Cambridge a run for her $

regarding the other buzz, they may have to do more than the suggested down payment adjustments to offset further RE price increases on any further interest rate declines. If you are at the table on this, at least package something with a little more punch.

#182 common sense on 12.11.15 at 10:06 am

#144 No Debt

I don’t have a man crush on Garth but highly respect the fact that he takes the time to educate and deal with us “Greater Fools” here when I am sure he has 100,001 other ways to better spend his time. To that we should all be grateful.

#183 Jules on 12.11.15 at 10:07 am

I can’t figure out if the dress is blue or gold.

#184 fancy_pants on 12.11.15 at 10:07 am

#175 David W on 12.11.15 at 4:26 am

put it in the orange guys shorts (safe investments, under the pillow so-to-speak) and just live simpler and within your means … it’s worth the sleep IMO.

It’s called investing in your health as indirect as that may be

#185 MF on 12.11.15 at 10:15 am

#171 DON on 12.11.15 at 3:23 am

haha no need to tear up!

Thanks for that post. Balance is important yes, but I think critical thinking is as well. Right now our BS meters are going crazy. Right into the red zone with an alarm and flashing lights yelling “caution caution”. It’s hard maintaining balance with that thing going off so loudly.

MF

#186 Broke Dick on 12.11.15 at 10:25 am

#34 jaybee on 12.10.15 at 7:35 pm

And by the way, Garth…I know you like to make fun of Justin, but c’mon; a ham sandwich would have the main stream media in a frenzy after 9 years of Harper!
////////////////////////////////////

A ham sandwich, that got my attention.

In the car biz a ham sandwich is a euphemism (that’s a big word I had to look it up) for a kickback or greasing someone’s palm.

The first time I was offered a “ham sandwich”, being a rookie, I told the wholesaler thanks but I just had lunch.

#187 Sheane Wallace on 12.11.15 at 10:26 am

Loonie could touch .6x handle even this year. Oil is in free fall and the CAD steadily looses 0.5 – 1 % per day against any currency (USD, Euro, the British Pound)

Kick out Poloz, he ‘envisions’ negative nominal rates with the currency in free fool.

Manifestation of absolute incompetency and stupidly of incomparable degree and danger.
What is happening with manufacturing, Mr. Export Canada?

Dummcopf. (in german)

#188 Sheane Wallace on 12.11.15 at 10:26 am

free fall damn it.

#189 robotducks on 12.11.15 at 10:28 am

#100 BG on 12.10.15 at 10:02 pm

Are just trying to fit in this comments section or really growing some kind of superiority complex?

_____________________________________

MF is just here to post catch phrases and generalizations he doesn’t actually understand

#190 Daisy Mae on 12.11.15 at 10:45 am

#155: “I don’t see how raising the downpayment now could have any impact when homes in Toronto and Vancouver are all well above the million dollar threshold.”

********************

Small increments so buyers don’t spook. Should be a decent 15%-20% across the board. This would have eliminated the ‘virgins’. However, the damage has been done….

#191 Broke Dick on 12.11.15 at 10:51 am

#57 Doomer Gloomer on 12.10.15 at 8:05 pm
Give it up GT. Negative rates in Canada before the end of 2016 and no FED hike on Dec 16. Only 6 days left to find out who’s wrong and who’s right ;)
/////////////////////////////////////////

Hey OUR billionaire is back (yes we have adopted you).

I say drinks on on the winner. 6 more days, so exciting.

#192 Gonkman on 12.11.15 at 10:53 am

Mr. Bill won’t say the word “Bubble”. Didn’t seem to know what a Bubble was?? LOL.

But he sure likes the word “Stability”

#193 bdy sktrn on 12.11.15 at 10:56 am

aaaaaack!

72.xx loonie

dow maybe -500 today

its grim out there.

#194 Smoking Man on 12.11.15 at 10:57 am

Cad Dollar Destroyed

sub 72

#195 Market Man on 12.11.15 at 10:59 am

Rule changes are a joke more smoke
They are not serious
10% not including the first 500k lol
COME ON MAN !!!

#196 When will they raise rates? on 12.11.15 at 11:00 am

***Oil hits $35 handle***

#197 bdy sktrn on 12.11.15 at 11:00 am

dp change announced

#198 Broke Dick on 12.11.15 at 11:03 am

#162 MF on 12.11.15 at 12:45 am
#124 Vundo on 12.10.15 at 11:09 pm
Now i’m not anti marriage by any means. My buddies are slowly starting to tie the knots and they appear happy. But I will say I work with the public and I always get the same questions from the older dudes or married guys when their wives are not around:

How old are you? 32
Are you married? No
“Good boy”

Can’t tell you how many times that has happened. Seems there are lots of guys out there who are not entirely happy with their situation.

MF
///////////////////////////////////////

Try to be selective when you are taking advise from old guys. They are generally a cranky bunch.
Less so if they have a beer in front of them though. Then it’s ok.

#199 Herb on 12.11.15 at 11:05 am

The spirit of Dr. Goebbels is alive and well and active in modern propaganda.

How many selfies has T2 taken with his own i-phone of himself? Anyone seen one, or him taking one? In all the photo ops I’ve seen on TV, other people are mobbing him for their selfies with him. Being crowded around and in the centre, he has sometimes held other people’s i-phones to get everyone into picture. Very offensive.

So the “selfie with” has become to-day’s “autograph of” the famous, and PM Trudeau is to-day’s famous. Calling him “king of selfies” or “selfie PM” is what it is, BS political propaganda designed to denigrate. Good luck with that – worked well in the last election, didn’t it.

#200 Randy Randerson on 12.11.15 at 11:14 am

Ok, I’m impressed with the new Finance Minister’s decision to raise the DP. I think we will see a lot more buyers trying to beat the deadline, wouldn’t be surprised to see a rise in sales in the next month.

#201 Sheane Wallace on 12.11.15 at 11:19 am

0.7291

Poloz should reduce the rates, CAD is not falling fast enough.

#202 bdy sktrn on 12.11.15 at 11:27 am

“This will impact one per cent or less of the market,” Morneau told a news conference.

#203 TRT on 12.11.15 at 11:34 am

So an extra 1% down payment on a house worth $700,000?

LOL

Like that’s going to do anything.

They will protect housing at all cost. Loonie going towards the 59 cents range. Only 12 more cents to go.

#204 Daisy Mae on 12.11.15 at 11:48 am

#199: “In all the photo ops I’ve seen on TV, other people are mobbing him for their selfies with him….”

**********************

So what? Pierre Elliott Trudeau created quite a stir, as well. Anyone remember ‘Trudeaumania’?

#205 lala on 12.11.15 at 11:49 am

This is just a warning:

Acts 20:31
“Therefore be on the alert, remembering that night and day for a period of three years I did not cease to admonish each one with tears.

#206 Sheane Wallace on 12.11.15 at 11:54 am

#203 TRT

Loonie actually could hit the 0.4x range, just wait, 0.59 is nothing.

Which will practically push all knowledge workers out of the country.

If somebody thinks that doctors will stay here for the equivalent of 120 k USD (in exceptional cases, before the extraordinary taxes and subject to investigations of their professional corporations), they are delusional

#207 Mike in Edm on 12.11.15 at 11:59 am

Talked with an Edmonton realtor last weekend at a friends Christmas party. They said that the Edmonton RE market completely died in November. Don’t know if the official #’s are out yet, but it’s not really surprising. It’s bound to happen sooner or later! They also said that some recent new home buyers are literally walking away from their $20k down payments to builders. They either lost their jobs and can’t afford the new characterless cookie cutter, or they just realize buying a new home right now is a horrible investment.

My corporate Pipeline friend (also at the party) said that even all their projects that were a complete rock solid go-ahead are now in question, and all the ppl in that industry that are generally all rainbows and unicorns and overly confident have completely changed their tune. And with $35 oil as of this morning, I don’t blame them. I think this is going to be a loooooooong recovery out of Alberta, but we’re no where near to even hitting rock bottom yet. I’m guessing things won’t pick up in this province until after NOTley is booted in 2019… Partly due to the NDP, but mainly due to cheap oil until then.

I also went to the movies on Tuesday. Wow. Literally a ghost town for the 7pm shows. I know it’s Christmas and many ppl are trying to save, but I’ve never seen it that dead before. No one in line at the ticket counter, or food counters.

#208 IHCTD9 on 12.11.15 at 12:02 pm

#199 Herb on 12.11.15 at 11:05 am

… BS political propaganda designed to denigrate. Good luck with that – worked well in the last election, didn’t it.
___________________________________________

T2 is running Canada into an iceberg, and we’re all on board watching the hull cave in.

Putting any work into tearing T2 a new one will not be required. His cheerleaders are already slinging every excuse in the book for what is happening. All one need do, is sit back and watch the gong show, there is simply no convincing spin applicable.

After the GFC, Harper knocked down the deficit 5 years straight.

Let’s see how Justin does.

Justin should have been running under the NDP banner based on his ideologies, this is becoming more and more evident as the weeks go by.

We essentially have an NDP majorities running Alberta, Ontario, and Canada.

#209 MF on 12.11.15 at 12:08 pm

#189 robotducks on 12.11.15 at 10:28 am

“You know your posts are insightful when they upset people and cause a stir”

That one is free for you

MF

#210 Sloan McAfee on 12.11.15 at 12:08 pm

Everyone on here appears to be hoping for real estate prices to fall. The reason is that people are thinking that if they were only to fall x%, they would jump in.

What I’m waiting for is when nobody CARES about real estate enough to write articles about it, or comment on the value. We’re a long way from that.

#211 The American on 12.11.15 at 12:15 pm

As usual, everyday is Opposite Day in Mark’s tiny little world.

#212 The Other Chris on 12.11.15 at 12:19 pm

With the dollar falling so rapidly, I can’t see how the Bank of Canada’s inflation target won’t be exceeded.

They’ll have to raise rates to defend their inflation target, unless they switch to the 4% inflation target that they’ve been talking about. Either way, it’s a lose-lose situation for the overall economy.

#213 Bat Flipper on 12.11.15 at 12:20 pm

The biggest concern of every Canadian should be this declining dollar. As the dollar declines, so does your purchasing power. Everything will increase in cost as your dollar declines. A 36% drop in the dollar is having serious and lasting impacts on our economy.

#214 Julie K. on 12.11.15 at 12:21 pm

Someone asks the Q: “what does a Prime Minister need to look like?”.

Answer: Angela Merkel

Would Angela do Vogue?

Never.

She is too busy doing a fab job leading her country — showing her male counterparts how it can be done.

Besides, “pretty boys” (ala JT) are never real men.

Peace.

#215 Bytor the Snow Dog on 12.11.15 at 12:23 pm

Hey paul, you do know where babies come from right? Right?

Garth you should rename your blog Butthurt Neo-Con Corner.

PS- Does Trudeau get any kudos for at least trying to tighten up the housing market?

#216 Herb on 12.11.15 at 12:29 pm

#204 Daisy Mae,

“So what?”

Precisely. Those suffering from libphobia should get off the selfie of Vogue bit and find a real stick to beat Trudeau with.

Given a sound-enough stick, I’d even help them, but so far I find myself on the side of the underdog in this propaganda war.

#217 MF on 12.11.15 at 12:29 pm

#198 Broke Dick on 12.11.15 at 11:03 am

Lol yeah some of them even whisper it quietly with their wives close by. They lean in and say:

“Don’t do it”

Lol and this is with or without a beer.

MF

#218 Herb on 12.11.15 at 12:30 pm

Apologies once more: “selfie or Vogue”, not “of”.

#219 Steve on 12.11.15 at 12:35 pm

So, my house that was worth 425k yesterday will probably bet worth 499k tomorrow because of Bill’s announcement today?

#220 IHCTD9 on 12.11.15 at 12:41 pm

#214 Julie K. on 12.11.15 at 12:21 pm

Besides, “pretty boys” (ala JT) are never real men.
___________________________________________

Well that’s damn good news for me.

#221 MF on 12.11.15 at 12:43 pm

204 Daisy Mae on 12.11.15 at 11:48 am

Yup. My parents were huge Pierre fans and they can’t stand this guy.

“He’s not his father” is what they say.

Like we’ve heard a few times, most people voted against Harper not for the Kid.

Now we have none stop propaganda to force us into “liking” him (and failing).

MF

#222 Doug in London on 12.11.15 at 12:45 pm

So the down payment on houses above 700 grand is going to 10%. Correct me if I’m wrong, but at one time didn’t ALL house buyers require a 10% down payment? What’s happening now is long, long overdue.

@The Other Chris, post #212:
That’s what I thought. Long, long ago in ancient times, wasn’t the goal of the Bank of Canada to adjust interest rates to keep in inflation contained?

#223 noel on 12.11.15 at 12:45 pm

The effect of people rushing to buy in the next 10 weeks before this is implemented will likely outweigh any downward pressure on the market from those ~4% of mortgages that will be effected. That, and those ~4% will simply borrow more from mom & pops, or take out a low interest loan alongside their mortgage, which certain lenders still allow, to top up their down payment.

#224 IHCTD9 on 12.11.15 at 12:46 pm

#215 Bytor the Snow Dog on 12.11.15 at 12:23 pm
Hey paul, you do know where babies come from right? Right?

Garth you should rename your blog Butthurt Neo-Con Corner.

PS- Does Trudeau get any kudos for at least trying to tighten up the housing market?
___________________________________________

I give JT and crew 1 point for the increases. But I don’t think it will be enough to make much of a change.

I hope they do another one before the end of Q1 2016.
I’d also like to know more about this “deductible” the banks are on the hook for in the case of default. Is this like 1-2%, or something worth doing like 25G’s min and up from there?

#225 When will they raise rates? on 12.11.15 at 12:47 pm

I would be interested to hear your insight on what a weakening Loonie means for Canadian RE, Garth?

#226 Daisy Mae on 12.11.15 at 12:47 pm

#207: “I also went to the movies on Tuesday. Wow. Literally a ghost town for the 7pm shows. I know it’s Christmas and many ppl are trying to save, but I’ve never seen it that dead before. No one in line at the ticket counter, or food counters.”

***********************

Well, with iceburg lettuce and broccoli costing $4 a head/bunch, small wonder. ;-)

#227 Randy Randerson on 12.11.15 at 12:49 pm

#217 MF on 12.11.15 at 12:29 pm

I’m 35, single. None of my friends have said “don’t get marry” to me yet, not even over beer. Funny thing is, whenever we hang out away from their wives, one of them always suggest a strip club. I guess being a single man, they all have plausible deniability when their wives ask them why they smell like strippers.

Anyways, I enjoy Freedom First’s reminders to be true to myself. Living the life of abundance.

#228 Balmuto on 12.11.15 at 12:51 pm

So a pretty tepid rule change since it’s only the portion over $500k that requires 10 down. Not exactly what the rumours were suggesting. Still, it might bring some downward price pressure on properties currently listed just north of the $500k mark. There are quite a few condos in that range in Toronto.

#229 IHCTD9 on 12.11.15 at 12:53 pm

#216 Herb on 12.11.15 at 12:29 pm

Given a sound-enough stick, I’d even help them, but so far I find myself on the side of the underdog in this propaganda war.
___________________________________________

You’ll probably get your stick in the first quarter of 2016.

Fear not, eventually Cramdown will wander back here under a different screen name, and you’ll have a buddy to help once more.

Ideology has some value, but not in times like these. T2 needs to get his priorities straightened up.

Save the expensive ideological experimentation for when everyone has a good job and the governments are running a surplus…

#230 IHCTD9 on 12.11.15 at 12:55 pm

#227 Randy Randerson on 12.11.15 at 12:49 pm

… when their wives ask them why they smell like strippers.
____________________________________________

?!?

#231 Doug in London on 12.11.15 at 12:57 pm

@Sloan McAfee, post #210:
I remember how in 1998-2000 it seemed everyone was talking about how great tech stocks were. In the middle of the next decade, when hardly anyone was talking about tech stocks, and that was a good time to buy. The same goes for commodities, in the later part of last decade all the talk was about commodities and resource companies. Hey, don’t you know we’re past peak oil? I remember doing a portfolio review with [email protected] who said I should buy Energy Fund. I said I sold off the last of my Energy Fund recently for a tidy profit. Now the punch line, that was in February 2008! Soon no one will be talking about resource stocks anymore, and it will be a good time to buy. As for housing a day will come when, as you say, no one will care about it. It will be like in 1994 when I saw an article titled : A man’s home is his hassle. When that time comes, it will be time to buy.

#232 Smoking Man on 12.11.15 at 1:01 pm

So T2 gives 2.6 Billion dollars of our money to climate change.

Billions Pledged, Wild West WYNEE ACOUNTING

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_CLIMATE_COUNTDOWN_FUNNY_MONEY?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-12-11-08-29-24

#233 Busted on 12.11.15 at 1:03 pm

POP!

#234 Mike T. on 12.11.15 at 1:05 pm

my oh my have things ever changed

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canadian-oil-production-to-double-by-2030-industry-predicts-1.1147550

whoops-a-doodle

i’m not saying this will be proven true, but…

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/new-mortgage-rules-to-hit-calgary-hard-economist-says

build it up

burn it down

how many times do you need to watch the same movie before you develop the ability to predict the ending?

LOTS!

check out areas being built up now and predict what’s gonna happen, you only get one chance

#235 No debt on 12.11.15 at 1:07 pm

#182 common sense- Garth rocks!
Freedom first has the man crush on Garth lol!

#236 bob on 12.11.15 at 1:18 pm

On the one hand, you say that foreign buyers have almost zero impact on the markets

And on the other hand, 5% to 10% downpayment, you make it sound apocalyptic.

Seriously?

When you read more carefully you will see that the cumulative effect of a number of issues is mounting. It’s okay. You can use more than one hand to keep track. — Garth

#237 Kevinhole Eerie on 12.11.15 at 1:22 pm

Hmm, so Garth, you said you would like Justin a lot more if he made a responsible move like this.

Looks like he’s groping your butt, today, GT ;)

I’m cool with that, always respected your metrosexuality.

You two wanna get a room?

#238 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.11.15 at 1:24 pm

The picture paired with a Leonard Cohen song.
Perfection.

#239 IHCTD9 on 12.11.15 at 1:30 pm

Looks like the Libs might have benefited from a little more experience in their ranks…

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberals-1st-money-bill-sent-to-senate-missing-essential-information-1.3360929

Oh well, because 2015

I am going to cancel the comedy network from my cable subscription – I just won’t need any more laughs after I’m done reading the news.

I’ll probably cancel the horror network as well, plenty of that coming too.

#240 IHCTD9 on 12.11.15 at 1:46 pm

#228 Balmuto on 12.11.15 at 12:51 pm
So a pretty tepid rule change since it’s only the portion over $500k that requires 10 down. Not exactly what the rumours were suggesting. Still, it might bring some downward price pressure on properties currently listed just north of the $500k mark. There are quite a few condos in that range in Toronto.
___________________________________________

Yep, probably going to see the 520K’s go to 499, and the 480K’s go to 499. I think it’s a good number for the GTAs and Vans of Canada – next to nothing less than 500K there to start with.

Also avoids smacking the more rural areas – 500K still gets you a bloody mansion in small town Ontario – and most of those are sitting for 6 months to a year before selling.

I’m also glad to see the 7% went to 10% on 500-700K.

#241 IHCTD9 on 12.11.15 at 1:55 pm

#217 MF on 12.11.15 at 12:29 pm
#198 Broke Dick on 12.11.15 at 11:03 am

Lol yeah some of them even whisper it quietly with their wives close by. They lean in and say:

“Don’t do it”

Lol and this is with or without a beer.

MF
___________________________________________

Marriage in this country is risky business for a man no doubt. But you can in fact mitigate the risk by marrying a foreign woman, or even a religious domestic woman – and one that makes the same or more income than you. Avoid the big city born in Canada, arts degree seculars like the plague.

If things go south the finances should resemble 50/50 after it is all said and done.

If you have kids though, then that becomes an entirely different matter.

#242 Herb on 12.11.15 at 1:59 pm

#208 IHCTD9,

Numbers don’t lie, but people do. It’s one thing to spin your failures as successes — it’s another thing entirely to try to present a decade of fiscal failure as one long triumph.

http://ipolitics.ca/2015/04/19/no-matter-how-you-add-it-up-harpers-fiscal-record-is-a-catastrophe/

If you don’t believe it, go to the Statscan site and refute yourself.

I won’t ask for the specifics of your other assertions in this or your subsequent comments this morning. You’ll just pull them out of the same ‘dark source’.

But you’re right on one point: I do miss Ralph. It was refreshing having an independent spirit in the kennel.

#243 Trading Naked on 12.11.15 at 2:58 pm

#241 IHCTD9 on 12.11.15 at 1:55 pm

I’d like to remind everybody that our blog host is married (though from a different time) and successful. Yes, I know, *modern* marriage is a complicated beast. Makes me wonder if I should be worried about being taken to the cleaners by a man.

I was on a flight to Cuba (with my mother, if anybody wants that clarification) when two men in the row behind me, who did not know each other, struck up a conversation. The gist was: “yeah, man, I have to go finalize the divorce and see the kids.” “You got an ex-wife there? Me, too.”

#244 IHCTD9 on 12.11.15 at 2:58 pm

#242 Herb on 12.11.15 at 1:59 pm
#208 IHCTD9,

Numbers don’t lie, but people do. It’s one thing to spin your failures as successes — it’s another thing entirely to try to present a decade of fiscal failure as one long triumph.

http://ipolitics.ca/2015/04/19/no-matter-how-you-add-it-up-harpers-fiscal-record-is-a-catastrophe/

If you don’t believe it, go to the Statscan site and refute yourself.

I won’t ask for the specifics of your other assertions in this or your subsequent comments this morning. You’ll just pull them out of the same ‘dark source’.

But you’re right on one point: I do miss Ralph. It was refreshing having an independent spirit in the kennel.
___________________________________________

All I’ve ever said, is that Harper knocked the deficit down 5 consecutive years in a row. This is a fact, and you won’t (and haven’t) challenged that because it’s true. The “dark source” for this info was a radical left-wing MSM outlet – the CBC.

Harper was an asshole, I agree. But he was and is much better equipped to handle the downturn than JT will ever be.

If you don’t believe that, then state clearly that you think Canada’s financial position will improve under T2 from where Harper left it.

I’m not saying Harper was perfect – I am making a comparison – I am saying Harper is better than Trudeau.

Harper failed to return to a surplus as promised.

Trudeau will be worse, MUCH worse.

Go ahead and tell me I’m wrong :)

I will be proven correct before the end of 2016.

#245 Randy Randerson on 12.11.15 at 2:58 pm

#230 IHCTD9 on 12.11.15 at 12:55 pm

Lap dances. For my married friends, that does not constitute as cheating.

#246 Where's The Money Guido? on 12.11.15 at 3:07 pm

Re: #29 MF on 12.10.15 at 7:27 pm

#200 Broke Dick on 12.10.15 at 12:02 pm

haha that’s hilarious.

I vote for more stories also. I bet you have tons.

MF

Here’s one from the buyer’s side…and it’s not funny..
Bought a truck from Metro Motors in Port Coquitlam BC. Dealt with their manager Tom Mendel.
I had an issue with a truck box dent and Tom said he’d fix it, no problem, just sign on the line. My bad, I signed and after that they BS’ed me completely about fixing the box. Even went so far as telling me that they had fixed it when it was obvious thay didn’t. Just strung me along enough so I couldn’t return it because of too much time (one week). Lies, lies and more lies. Complete bottom feeders.
Wrote to Ford Canada and nothing.
Because of that, I never bought another Ford and never will, even though the truck was fine mechanically. Had it for 15 years.

#247 Ronaldo on 12.11.15 at 3:22 pm

#222 Doug in London on 12.11.15 at 12:45 pm

”So the down payment on houses above 700 grand is going to 10%. Correct me if I’m wrong, but at one time didn’t ALL house buyers require a 10% down payment? What’s happening now is long, long overdue.”

It’s been aloud to go on too long. What they need to do is lower the CMHC insurance back down to $750,000. Remember that it was $500,000 not that long ago. That would have a much bigger effect than the small increase in the downpayment. That can easily be funded by bank of Ma and Pa. The gov created a runaway and now they are having difficulties putting the brakes on it. Interesting times ahead.

#248 Ronaldo on 12.11.15 at 3:26 pm

#240 IHCDT9

”Yep, probably going to see the 520K’s go to 499, and the 480K’s go to 499. I think it’s a good number for the GTAs and Vans of Canada – next to nothing less than 500K there to start with.”

Exactly.

#249 Where's The Money Guido? on 12.11.15 at 4:26 pm

Re: #125 IHCTD9 on 12.10.15 at 11:10 pm

#112 Mark on 12.10.15 at 10:28 pm
“Harper steadily knocked the deficit down in the years following the GFC. “

How do we really know the deficit ran by Harper in those years when the extent of CMHC’s liabilities is very likely mis-stated?

If we study the totality of Harper’s record, his governments added ~$250B of new government borrowing. And encumbered the CMHC for hundreds of billions of additional contingent guarantees. GFC or not, I’m not sure how anyone can spin this as ‘good’.
————-

Mark buddy, why don’t you tell me about how Trudeau is going to fix it all up? I was really hoping for change and all that.

Harper chopped the deficit for 5 consecutive years in a row, surely Trudeau will do much better than that right?

So what’s your bet? Surplus in 3 years? Maybe even 2? Justin could never be worse than Harper right? No one could be worse than Harper!!

Go ahead and fill me in, I’ll go get my shovel…

Whoa there IHCTD9….What makes you think that those numbers weren’t fudged by the Harpster. How can you be so sure?

I’m sure there’s more fudging to come, that will no doubt hit us right in the fudge-hole.
His doppleganger out west, Christy Clark, has another scam that has been brought to light today, in addition to the influence prddling from yesterday.

Her very close buddy, Jessica McDonald, that Christy parachuted in as head of BC Hydro, has been telling whoppers to the Energy Utility regulators (well her minions, ahem and she and Energy Minister know nothing about it and will get to the bottom of this!!!!!). You just have to read their responses, unbelievable is the word. She’s already throwing the workers under the bus.
She had NO experience whatsoever running anything let alone a HUGE multi-billion dollar company when she took over.
http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/hydro+lied+regulator+says/11581102/story.html

#250 MF on 12.11.15 at 5:47 pm

#241 IHCTD9 on 12.11.15 at 1:55 pm

Amen to that. Foreign women (especially south East Asian born like my gf) are the way to go if marriage is a consideration. Even better if they are religious (but not too religious lol).

Under normal circumstances here in the GTA, there seems to be an inverse correlation between attractiveness and trustworthiness. With foreign women that correlation is not as strong.

Couple points from personal experience.

-get them while they have just moved here. A couple years in Canada and they will become less trusting and more currupted as they get approached by millions of desperate Canadian guys using pathetic PUA tactics.

-they require more love and attention than Canadian born women do. Any free time you have you better spend it with her or else lol. The good thing is they return the affection x10.

-be prepared to be heavily involved with their families. Some of my friends were not too fond of this point lol.

-be prepared to immerse yourself in their culture too. I see this as a positive, but some guys are put off.

MF

#251 MF on 12.11.15 at 6:12 pm

#246 Where’s The Money Guido?

Ouch. In situations like that I think the best thing to do is just get the word out about the bad service. Normally, that word gets back to the company and they (usually) try to address it. My place of employment has our owner constantly checking up on google reviews for feedback as an example. If someone complains man we we hear about it.

Car/truck shops are tricky because you really don’t know what they do to your car/truck when they have it. Maybe nothing like in your case!

MF

#252 prairiegopher on 12.11.15 at 6:15 pm

He looks alot like Ted Kennedy.

#253 MF on 12.11.15 at 6:20 pm

#227 Randy Randerson on 12.11.15 at

Stripper smell lol.

Yeah most of my buddies are newlyweds and still in the honey moon phase. I assume as the years drag on i will start to get some invites as well. But I don’t know, I’ve got a gem of a woman currently so I better decide soon if I want to be part of the group being asked or the one asking.

MF

#254 Dragon's corner on 12.12.15 at 9:19 am

This real-estate bubble is getting out of hand and economist have their hands tied when it comes to raising the interest as rest of the economy needs them low. They are bit late with this new CMHC’s mortgage insurance. The table below should have been implemented a decade ago and we would have a much healthier real-estate – economy.

Here is the table that would have kept house prices at more reasonable level:

$200,000 5%
$300,000 6%
$400,000 8%
$500,000 10%
$600,000 12%
$700,000 14%
$800,000 16%
$900,000 18%
$1,000,000 (and above) 20%

CMHC had created this monster in the first place and they should find ways to deflate this in orderly fashion.

#255 Dan on 12.12.15 at 3:16 pm

Prime Minister of Canada talked with Queen of England:
My father was your Prime Minister and now I am your Prime Minister. He did not mentioned the word Canada. I did. In wain.

#256 Where's The Money Guido? on 12.12.15 at 5:42 pm

#251 MF on 12.11.15 at 6:12 pm

Yeah, that’s what I would do now. The salesman was the manager at the time.
I called and wrote media but they weren’t as accommodating to consumer stories as they are nowaday.
The part that concerned me was the lack of concern from Ford Canada. They didn’t give a crap and just blew me off with their form letters.
I got the same letter exactly 3 times to different emquiries that I knew I was up against their brick wall.
It would be very different today, I’m guessing, because of a more pervasive social media.

#257 Smoking Man on 12.12.15 at 10:46 pm

My pathic life.

Click my name for the spoyles of my universe