Ken wrote me from his Vancouver Island RV park on Sunday.
“There are now five different families in this small park that all worked in the oil fields in Alberta that are now laid off and living in their trailers,” he says. “All of them have skilled trades, yet not one of them can find any work anywhere here on the Island. Even their wives can’t find a minimum wage job.
“I’m not sure where politicians get their job stats information from but here in the real world people are seriously struggling. I don’t remember this degree of fear since the 80’s. The trickle down from Alberta is affecting the Canadian economy yet no one’s talking about it except you.”
So in ten days interest rates start to rise. Soon there may be a much bigger war against the ISIS crazies. Oil prices are going down as production goes up. We just elected some tax-and-spend governments. Carbon taxes are coming, to dampen consumption. Canada lost almost thirty-six thousand jobs last month. Real estate prices in YVR and the GTA are up by double-digits. House sales are off 22% in Calgary. Condos down 40%.
All these are connected. As usual. For people who think about big things, strange days. For most people, it’s just Christmas. Or, they get hormonal and fall for stuff like this:
This pathetic blog won’t belabour the obvious, but Canada’s not moving in the right direction. The global economy is now growing at three times the rate of ours, and the US recovery has proven robust enough monetary policy is changing for the first time in ten years. As rates rise there, mortgages will plump here and debt servicing costs pop. This will occur in 2016 as the economy slumps, a new tax regime dawns, debt levels hit fresh highs and a third of our GDP’s based on people selling each other houses they can’t afford on flat incomes. This is why Calgary’s a harbinger and you need to pay attention, as Ken is, to oil creep.
By the way, over the past five years here is why investors in maple have been shellacked, and those with globally-diversified portfolios have not.
All of this is lost on the girls you work with, your idiot BIL and, probably, the parents, because Canadians have opted for a one-asset strategy. Real estate is a primary focus of this blog since that’s where people stick the bulk of their net worth. It’s why TFSAs are 90% under-funded, RRSP contributions have fallen off a cliff, why people are so indebted that they cannot save and an interest rate increase is such a threat. With commodity prices in the dumpster, unemployment getting structural and debt saturation close, it’s a strategy laden with risk. Those who expect past gains to be repeated are dreaming.
Well, here’s a summary of the last five years. US equity investors did great. TSX investors made nothing. Oil crashed. Houses in YVR and the GTA roughly paced the returns on a balanced portfolio, but detached owners did better (if they sell). In short, consumption has gone up sharply. Income has not. The difference is debt.
The question is, where from here?
You can make up your own mind, but it’s probably a good idea to pay some attention to the principles articulated here.
Be very careful about Canadian exposure – in real estate and equities. Make preparations for higher interest rates – reducing debt exposure (like a mortgage) while buying things that benefit (like preferreds). Be as balanced as you can. That means within a portfolio (40% fixed income, 60% growth) and within your life (recall the Rule of 90 when it comes to a house). Don’t expect the conditions that bloated property prices (cheap money and house lust) to be sustained. Embrace your job. It’s more precious now. Fight home-country bias, seeking exposure to global assets which benefit from cheap oil. Be aggressive about tax avoidance, as politicians move left. Wait to buy.
And never miss a day of GreaterFool. God knows what might happen.
269 comments ↓
Better pet that dog first to see if he is vicious
Yes tax avoidance, compliance is one point of a portfolio that often gets overlooked.
Wow. Early post. Where’s the party this afternoon?
Would the rule about staying away from Maple include CDN Reits like XRE? Or is wiser to have a US REIT? Some of those US Reits have healthy yields. Anybody?
Is the street sign in today’s photo in Lilloet? Just askin’ – the mountains in the background, sunny sky and dry, dusty ground look like some place in the B.C. interior.
This blog is quite timely on the Albertans living in the trailer park on Van Isle. On Thursday the newly minted commie pinko Alberta energy minister made a statement that “layed off skilled tradesmen should move to BC were all of the new job opportunities lie”.
http://globalnews.ca/news/2379629/albertas-energy-minister-says-laid-off-workers-could-work-in-b-c/
When you say foreign equities do you mean foreign equities from foreign exchanges or foreign holding investments from the toronto stock exchange?
Garth, your blog is the best. I read it everyday. Please keep up the good work.
Your blog was part of my wife and I deciding to sell our condo in YYZ and rent closer to both of our jobs. Not only are we in a better position to weather the housing-apocalypse, but we spend less time commuting.
So skilled trades living on the island can’t find work. Well, it is the island. Lots of laid back, living off the land (still) with not a huge amount of free cash; lots of retirees whose cash allocation either does not stretch to hiring a skilled trade, or live in the kind of housing that is already maintained so tough to break into that market. Plus there is the island time phenomena – things do not tend to occur at warp speed there.
Plus, the whole can’t find work thing. Are these skilled trades even considering working unless they can pull the kind of cash they were making in the oil patch? If they are laid off, presumably they can collect EI for close to a year before having to start looking & they might have received a pretty good layoff package to boot. So possibly they are not yet feeling the kind of urgency regarding finding work that they might feel in a few months time. A year from now, the economy might have begun to recover & finding work might be easier than it is just now…..
I have a similar sign involving double-dipped nachos…
And never miss a day of GreaterFool. God knows what might happen.-GT
Yes Dog knows?
Another wise post, thank you Garth. I do like to think about big things and as you say “strange days” both domestically and internationally. This blog will be a safe harbour for those trying to stay ahead in the coming s**t storm. Season’s Greetings to all.
Good blogpost garth,
appreciate your things for 2016. Have a question regards to unemployment rate in Canada. Recently, they released the official # being 7.0% in Canada. Talked to an american recently and he says that number is considered “healthy”. not as bad as France as an example. So my Question is how does StatsCanada go about calculating this official unemployment rate? Is it true that this number does not take into account those people who have “given up, after being unemployed for 2+ years”?
Living on Vancouver Island myself, I can attest to what Ken describes. Noticeably more folks here this winter who appear to be living life on the very edge. We welcome them and sympathize with them (well.. most of us do), but also wish their vehicles had some pollution controls on them. Not kidding about that last part.
“And never miss a day of GreaterFool. God knows what might happen.”
Well said. I never do.
Thanks for the good work.
You deserve to make money from this blog, please blast in advertisements.
“But I don’t want to go among mad people,” Garth remarked.
“Oh, you can’t help that,” said the Cat: “we’re all mad here. I’m mad. You’re mad.”
“How do you know I’m mad?” said Garth .
“You must be,” said the Cat, “or you wouldn’t have come here.”
― Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland
All G7 countries had low interest rate.
People all over the world have the goal to have their own home.
Are we saying that something in Canada is fundamental different somehow?
Is it Canadian families, buying houses, condos who cause that “Canada is not moving the right direction” and the Canadian economy is not growing the way as the US and others?
Why did cheap money with a Democrat government kickstart the US economy as a whole and it why didn’t stimulate the Canadian economy – with a supposedly fiscally responsible conservative majority government in charge for a long time?
All my friends on the Island who have anything to do with new houses or construction are still screaming busy. I was quite surprised to hear it myself, but good for them.
Make hay when the sun shines.
@Ralph Cramdown – You have been an inspiration…
http://www.realitynext.ca/cram-it/
Relax though
It’s not all about you, and you’ll be delighted to know that it’s also available on you smart phone
Cheers
no interest rate increase in canada, real estate will continue rising
http://www.canadianbusiness.com/economy/how-the-bank-of-canada-and-the-u-s-fed-are-parting-ways/
http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/why-the-bank-of-canada-and-the-u-s-fed-are-parting-ways/
Just keep telling yourself that. — Garth
“Who knows what might happen?”
Boy, I certainly do not. Filled up the shit-box yesterday. (93 Caddy for the uninformed). Took a whole $19.50 at $1.89 a gallon, no it was 1/2 empty. So, did notice the ‘cheaper gas’ price. View it merely as ‘temporary’ no matter how long it may last.
I don’t hear a lot of complaining of late. Yes, the sand mines are slow, manufacturers are working, and people still have their usual personal problems, i.e. money and relationship stuff, but that has ALWAYS been there. The crowd of idiots are merely younger as I look at them with geezer wisdom. You know what I mean… we have seen these issues a few times prior.
So, it is all too apparent, there will be some housing pain, labor pain, and all around money issues for more than a few Canadians. You could not say “we didn’t see this coming” as commodities have been on the skids for quite a spell. What would have been your first clue?
What should the American retired guy do? Not much, balanced, check. A bit of cash to scoop up bargains, check. Should he sell off some of those intermediate term bonds before the official announcement? Bond prices have been wobbling up and down of late… Hmm? I will hold the short term bonds as they will react positively to any hike and a .25% is no big whoop to start.
No, he probably won’t do much, reserve his right to bitch. His gut says there will be NO interest rate change.
70% VTI, 30% VXUS. Booyakasha!
I suspect those aforementioned oil rig workers are now living on Vancouver Island is because they bought a trailer as their winter home. Toys for the boys, so they say. Otherwise why would any skilled tradesperson want to live in VI, people go there to die.
http://www.businessinsider.com/economic-indicators-since-great-recession-zero-interest-rate-policy-2015-12
Just noticed this article – it relates to my previous post.
Can anyone create the same charts for Canda, to see how the same low interest rate impacted Canadian economy vs American economy?
It would be a great starting point to understand why the two countries have been moving to different directions.
SRED is a high tech jobs program. It makes development here competitive with other jurisdictions. The government historically didn’t look closely because it didn’t want to. Now with the weaker dollar, it might be less necessary anyway.
I follow only two (pathetic) blogs. This one and Smoking man’s (backup blog when this one goes dark).
REITs could fare fine with rate hike?
From this weekend’s Investors Business Daily paper: USA
“Higher interest rates are on Wall Street’s mind these days, but the Fed has been very transparent about a slow and steady approach to rate hikes in light of a choppy U.S. economic recovery, low oil prices and uncertainty in China.
Interest rates rising at a snail’s pace likely will not have a material impact on REITs. “Interest rate hikes tend to happen when the economy is improving, and a strengthening economy is usually when REITs are thriving,” Cowling said.
http://news.investors.com/investing-inside-real-estate/120415-783828-reit-dividends-and-interest-rate-outlook.htm?ntt=REITs+and+interest+rates
Great advice Garth but how many who should will need it. We are heading to a place we have never been or seen before and it will not be pretty.
But I have no pity for the fools, because they asked for it, choices have consequences like electing TrueDough. But you Liberals can always blame Stephen, it’s all his fault for the chit that is about to happen. At least Justin time TrueDough will leagalize marijuana so the fools can smoke their troubles away. Why drink and drive when you can smoke and Fly high like a kite.
Ken from the Island raises a good point. I doubt that the available statistics permit any real analysis. I will provide some snapshot numbers but analysis will still elude us.
A job loss in Alberta’s oil patch does not mean an Albertan has lost a job. The laid off worker may be domiciled in another province.
The Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo (where Ft. McM and the Athabasca oil sands are) conducted a census in 2012 and included the work camp population. There were 83,000 beds in work camps. Yes, 83,000 beds. And Calgary has what, 12 to 15,000 hotel beds?
Note that I said beds. Not workers. The census was conducted in the summertime and there were 39,000 workers in those camps. Some from Alberta and some from elsewhere but that breakdown was not recorded.
The census was in the summertime. It would be much higher in the winter because the drilling programs, seismic programs and cutline falling cannot take place in the summer. Trucks and drill rigs sink in the fens, bogs and muskeg in the summer.
The patch in Alberta has shed tens of thousands of jobs but the laid off workers live from coast to coast.
HEED it I meant.
I understand the oilboys sitting it out on the Island looking for work – sense an ultimatum from significant others along the lines of “I’m not spending one more day this winter stuck in Ft. Mac watching you mope around the house. You can come with me and the kids if you want.” The Island is a great place to live, but be ready for the long haul, it isn’t a place to make a quick buck and has a very different tempo than the oilpatch. If the lifestyle if what you want and you are going to stick it out, find a good trade, do good work, deal fairly with others and you will be OK.
I’ve been wondering about the market momentum.
Considering the YVR RE market: Yes, a correction at some time will happen.
I wonder if it is even possible that we would see this soon, because, doesn’t the YVR housing market have a momentum? Or ‘sticky pricing’ as some call it?
Is it really possible to go from +10% in one month, to -10% in the next? Surely there must be many months of +0% in between, due to inertia?
Compare it with the inertia of an oil tanker, traveling 10 knots east. It is impossible for that tanker to go 10 knots west the next minute. Every thing will move very slowly.
Heck, it may very well be 2017 already before we see the first negative price move in YVR detached housing.
RE:
New buyers have to qualify for their mortgage based on the “5 year rate” which is set in the bond market & not by the Bank of Canada variable rate.
I am off to Nanaimo again on next Sunday for a week long business trip. You don’t go to the island to die, you go there to live.
It will be my third time there this year.
The island is Canada’s best kept secret for many, many, reasons, some of which Garth thinks are politically incorrect. There’s lots of work there, there’s actually lots of work everywhere in this world, you just have to be adaptable and intelligent, qualities which unfortunately are not part of the general populace anymore.
Undercurrents…
The gap is easy to explain. The US mostly ate its lumps and like Americans always do… shrugged it off and moved forward. Don’t think the government had much to do with it. Americans are naturally forward thinking and expect lead from the government (except OR/CA/MA).
We didn’t really experience a significant contraction in 2008/09. The combination of the Chinese infrastructure spend (massive need for commodities) and government spending / housing incentives / monetary easing here (not really needed) helped everyone feel wealthier. That is what is coming to roost now…
SRED – from yesterday’s post…
Not sure how you get that the businesses owners are getting richer with a SRED. They are still investing $2 for every dollar they receive from the government. If the r&d doesn’t provide some income stream… the business owners are losing double what benefit they get. It’s the extra engineers/developers (and government employees) that get the benefit as it incents businesses to invest.
As SRED Lover posted today… They definitely have let a lot through as r&d… Political. They should let the market determine what is good/bad r&d and give the incentives to the investors who are taking the biggest risk (and hopefully doing the most due diligence)
So in ten days interest rates start to rise. Soon there may be a much bigger war against the ISIS crazies. Oil prices are going down as production goes up. We just elected some tax-and-spend governments. Carbon taxes are coming, to dampen consumption. Canada lost almost thirty-six thousand jobs last month. Real estate prices in YVR and the GTA are up by double-digits. House sales are off 22% in Calgary. Condos down 40%.
All these are connected. As usual. For people who think about big things, strange days. For most people, it’s just Christmas. Or, they get hormonal and fall for stuff like this: Garth
//////////////////////////////////////////////
As the Alberta creep happens across Canada when do we throw the ” all real estate is local” mantra out the window?
Or am I barking up the wrong tree? Woof ,Woof!
It looks like Canada will NOT be raising interests rates no matter the US Fed does with theirs. I pity the fools who have be following the advice of this site.
Home ownership is a ship that is just TOO BIG to fail in Canada. The policy and money masters of this country will never let it happen, no matter what the cost.
They will SINK THE CURRENCY before letting deflationary pricing hit housing.
If you are reading this, then consider yourself one of the unlucky. My condolences.
A recent MACLEAN’s magazine article relating to my earlier point…
http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/why-the-bank-of-canada-and-the-u-s-fed-are-parting-ways/
I wonder if it is even possible that we would see this soon, because, doesn’t the YVR housing market have a momentum? Or ‘sticky pricing’ as some call it?
Read up on the concept of ‘the sales mix’. Its entirely possible (and highly probable in Toronto/Vancouver) that prices, just like in the rest of Canada have been falling on individual identical properties. But averages rising because the market has shifted from transacting in the ‘normal’ mix of properties, to a mix that is increasingly comprised of higher end. The lower end having dropped out on account of Flaherty’s changes to CMHC subprime mortgage insurance in Budget 2013 — in hindsight, the peak of Canada’s RE bubble.
If you look at the stats, if you see the median rising much faster than the mean, its a slam dunk to show that sales mix changes are responsible for a significant proportion of price changes. And that’s exactly what’s seen in the Toronto/Vancouver data. Which matches the various anecdotal experiences over the past few years alongside the statistical data.
A data analysis approach that attempts to correct for this is the Teranet index. However, the problem with the Teranet index is that it is essentially a low-pass (ie: integrating) filter which smooths out rapid changes and induces a pretty significant delay between the energy of an impulse or step input, and such being fully expressed on the output. Thus, Teranet should be viewed as a sort of significantly ‘lagging’ indicator due to its methodology. So by the time you see the Teranet index actually turning down, the real situation, “on the ground”, is likely far worse.
When the price of oil first started it”s long decline, I thought low prices wouldn’t last more than two years as most oil producers would simply slow production or stop entirely. However most companies expanded with debt that should be repaid , they needed cash flow so they soldier on.
Some are calling for oil to remain low for many years however being a finite resource and oil demand increasing world wide, logic would have to be bruised somewhat. Either way I sense the large lady is about to hang up her coat, grab her song book and make her way to the mic.
Adding to CDN investments, DRIPing the distrinutions, dividend tax credits all bought on heavy weakness and weakening to continue for 5-10 years then the turnaround and all these years will heavily payoff about 25 years from now in a comfortable retirement thriving to the maximums.
“Interest rates rising at a snail’s pace likely will not have a material impact on REITs. “Interest rate hikes tend to happen when the economy is improving, and a strengthening economy is usually when REITs are thriving,” Cowling said.”
I’d be very careful about REITs. Most of the people who claim they do just fine in rising interest rates have not tested REITs (or RE, since REITs are just a proxy thereof) for the rising long-term rate environment. REITs have only existed, in Canada, for the past 20-25 years or so.
If one examines the last phase of long-term rising rates, particularly in the 1960s and 1970s — by the end of the 1970s, there were some epic bargains on large commercial buildings available. And presumably if REITs had existed at the time, they would have chopped distributions and probably been rendered bankrupt. Of course, REIT promoters won’t tell you this readily, and won’t point to charts showing the long-term performance of their products in the long-term rising rate cycle, but its fairly slam-dunk obvious that the headwinds against RE of all kinds will be significant when long-term rates start to rise significantly. REITs as stock-market-traded securities may even start to anticipate such (and perhaps already have in the USA) and may not be bargains at all if the future is distribution cuts and decreasing capital values as long-term rates tick higher for the next 20-30 years.
You guys have all been warned: “Buy now, or be priced out forever”
Waiting on the westcoast
I agree how Americans are different.
Look at the comments under the charts to see what they think is coming to roost now… Funny they don’t care about housing as their alpha and omega of their financial curse…
Yes. It is always good to be liquid, diversified, balanced, have cash, cash flow, incomes streams, and be debt free at all times, for me.
Having all of your net worth in any one asset at any time, while relying on the income from any one job at the same time, is a high risk strategy at all times, for me, and I would never go there.There may be a thousand excuses for people to indulge in this reckless behaviour, but there is not one good reason. Too high risk. People need to operate with more more patience, creativity, and financial prudence.
While I feel bad for Canadians going through difficult times right now, which are now going to get much worse, I am excited about the opportunities which have started coming, as I have begun to nibble at the deals available, but I know it is not yet feasting time. I talked about Canadians being asleep and these exact times coming on this blog 18 months ago. Well, it has begun. Garth has been warning us to be prepared.
“Embrace your job. It’s more precious now.” Garth
As my Employment rate chart demonstrates:
http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html#Rate
The high for the Calgary and Alberta employment rates was in late 2008 just prior to the nosedive into the March 2009 pit of gloom. A brief pick-up occurred in 2011-12 but global commodities had peaked in 2011 and the pick-up turned into a let down from 2013 on and is now looking at new lows.
The odd man is Vancouver and BC… the employment rates are rising there.
Garth I love this kind of post.
Pragmatic advice.
Thank you!
My favourite quote from that rapper is his rationale for investing in Vitamin Water: “E’rybody drink waddah.”
Musical interlude of the day: “Vote For Me” by Chicago. Thirty-eight years after it was written, NOTHING has changed:
“Vote for me, vote for me
I want the nomination for the Presidency
Vote for me, vote for me
If I am elected, this is how it will be
I’ll cut your tax in half, I’ll make the Russians laugh
I’ll feed the hungry people everywhere
I’ll bring the railroads back, new trains and new track
From Waikiki to old Delaware”
The rest of the lyrics touch on alternative fuels, solar power, the environment, and world peace. Nope, nothing’s changed.
#19 Real Estate will go up
Read my typing “the bond market ultimately determines the mortgage rates not the BOC”.
#24 SRED lover on 12.06.15 at 3:03 pm
SRED is a high tech jobs program. It makes development here competitive with other jurisdictions. The government historically didn’t look closely because it didn’t want to. Now with the weaker dollar, it might be less necessary anyway.
—
I bet you are lover of free money, who isn’t?
But are you doing any real cutting edge R&D for it – something that would matter in Silicon Valley or other places…
Or are you just paying for the SRED consultants to suck as much money off the program as possible, without any real impact on hi tech at all?
[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/12/06/strange-days/ […]
Well plenty of construction around here. Does seem to take a while to sell, and prices seem to be static for SFH.
And yep the island sucks big time….no traffic outside of Victoria, surrounded by lakes, beaches, and mountains and national parks ;-)
We had about 5 months of non stop sun this year, actually had drought conditions. And we might go below zero a few times during the winter, and maybe one or two days of snow. We get a lot of rain this time of year, but so what…beats double digit minus temps and spending half your life shovelling snow.
I could not think of any where else i’d like to live in Canada personally.
#4 Nanaimo: Would the rule about staying away from Maple include CDN Reits like XRE? Or is wiser to have a US REIT? Some of those US Reits have healthy yields. Anybody?
Not staying away from Maple, keeping it from dominating your investments. My target is 50% Bonds, 20% CAD stocks, 15% US and 15% International. REIT’s have been good but I’ve got 50% of my net worth in my house, I don’t want any more exposure than that even if it on the commerical side.
@WeAreTheFools
Ummm, once the Fed raises rates the banks will raise their own rates irregardless if the BOC does or not – To stem the outflow of cash from Canadian banks into US banks – Then the BOC will be forced to act.
Cheers.
“Or are you just paying for the SRED consultants to suck as much money off the program as possible, without any real impact on hi tech at all?”
The problem with SR&ED is that it effectively imposes upon companies a requirement, within their industrial organization, to have discrete R&D departments if they are to be eligible. With plenty of ‘accounting’ types to run around filling out paperwork, defending themselves in audits, etc., with the CRA.
SR&ED is, at best, a Band-Aid to a cultural problem (and arguably, a cost of capital problem) that firms just aren’t conducting a lot of R&D internally. Its my view that literally everyone in a company should be encouraged to perform R&D. Ranging from the janitor who may try out different cleaning chemicals/methods, to engineers on the front lines, to even mid-level management positions. A lot of the productivity lag in the Canadian economy isn’t because basic “R&D” isn’t available, but rather, because there’s such an intransigent culture in so many businesses that there’s no reward for taking any risk or trying out new things or new processes where appropriate.
Its a lot like the problem with TFSAs/RRSPs/RPP’s in Canada. Again, band-aids applied to a fundamentally broken tax, economic, and government welfare system which discourages savings and investment. Before the election, I wrote, in response to Trudeau’s alleged slur of small business owners, that its good his mind is open to significant evidence-based reform rather than the gameable dogmatic approach used by prior governments (of all stripes). However, not too sure how strong the commitment was to tax reform since that didn’t seem to really be a headline issue in the election.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-24/your-debt-bubble-here-updated-leverage-cycle-map
So in the above cycle chart Canada is lumped in with China and Brazil. This will not end well. Love this blog, it resonates with everything I have been worried about in RE.
“Read my typing “the bond market ultimately determines the mortgage rates not the BOC”.”
True. And the bond market is a predictive device for future BoC policy, plus uncertainty surrounding BoC decision making. Credit quality is a significant component in the rate an actual borrower will pay against the specific type of loan they’re taking out and the collateral pledged thereof (if any). And credit quality has arguably peaked for Canadian mortgage borrowers and the RE market that makes up the base of collateral.
Its entirely possible (and probable) to get future BoC rate cuts, and lower GoC bond yields, yet see rising mortgage rates in Canada. In fact, I’ve argued for the case of such as the Canadian economy increasingly deflates on account of a slowing economy, yet residential mortgage borrowers become less creditworthy and thus are charged higher interest rates on account of the greater risk they pose to the lending community.
The flip side of this is that highly solvent corporations should see their borrowing costs fall. Which could be great for P/E multiple expansion even if actual earnings do not meaningfully grow.
As usual nobody here in the GTA gives a rat’s arse or is even vaguely aware of what’s happening out west.
Very few young adults would fall for the “HASN’T SHE WAITED LONG ENOUGH” ad.
The photo is too stupidly staged. The expressions on their faces don’t even come up to the mark of Victorian sentimentalism, they’re right out of Raphael ca Anno Domini 1500. Put wings on them and yer lookin’ at Raphael cherubs.
Young adults today have a healthy cynical streak – and do not dreamily screw up their eyes like that. Musta been hard on the models’ eyeballs.
The fact that her top matches his pants is as au courant as a Rock Hudson Doris Day movie. (His other two pants were in the wash.)
This ad’s designer must be a fan of Mickey Mouse Club reruns, and misses Petticoat Junction. Probably has a collection of Bewitched tapes.
– woulda been an outrageous success if it had been two males or two females –
Remember “the generation gap”? We’ve got another one now: young adults are smartly disconnected from corporate MSM and vice versa. The ad is as stylistically relevant as Ken&Barbie and the Avon Lady.
And to top it all off, on this post’s screen, Garth’s devilish Mephistophelian mugshot is practically next to our fake Renaissance angels.
Strange sunny days: the successful staging of JT as handsome princely hero is good for Canada’s image both at home and abroad BUT the distance from hero to goat can be short, public opinion can turn on a dime.
Young people would like a house . . . but they’re not the cartoon characters pictured in the ad.
You forgot. It’s from Saskatoon. — Garth
Garth had a great post about preferreds a while ago, I think it was just called “Special.” Well worth the read if you are new here.
Garth, simple question:
What are they doing in the US, to warrant such a relatively good economy?
The commentary is right-on.
If the policy makers decide to use QE, then most Canadians will be screwed big time.
QE was a failed experiment. The pain will be brutal. Those in debt will suffer. Those with cash will be able to pick up a lot of opportunities.
The job scene in alberta is getting worse by the day. there are some jobs but a tradeperson making 80 dollars/hr during the boom times is not willing to do the same job for 25 dollars/hr now. As long as free money is available these people are sitting and waiting, many have moved to warmer climate areas like either the wet coast in Canada or Yuma US.
OTOH, the pubs and liquor stores are busier than hell.
#30 Bram on 12.06.15 at 3:33 pm
Bram it seems unlikely at the moment but nobody knows what the future holds. If you look at the sales mix in Toronto and Vancouver you’ll notice that prices are moving upwards across the board for a long time now.
http://www.chpc.biz/compare-toronto–vancouver.html
As the saying goes, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
life in Alberta.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/labour-shortage-banff-tourism-1.3353120
That first image is so defining for the canadian craziness. Been in elevator with two hot millenians complaining about not buying this year. Befire elevator door closing i told her maybe its a good think and wait six months. She replied … Sure but the medication for anxiety who’s paying that? In downtown vancouver 2 caucasian girls no aliens as the realtors propaganda is saying. Both hot but dumb, husbands will pay for 2 degrading ‘ass’ets :-)
#25 TurnerNation on 12.06.15 at 3:23 pm
That makes sense. U.S. REITs don’t appear to be a bad place to be. It’s unlikely that rates will rise very quickly and the U.S. economy is strong. Employment and pay is really good in IT, healthcare and construction. In fact pay is strong almost everywhere.
Just avoid gold and oil. Those two have been duds for years. That was predicted a long time ago too.
“If you look at the sales mix in Toronto and Vancouver”
Why don’t you bother to learn what the sales mix is rather than repeat your nonsense ad nauseum?
The sales mix is the statistical distribution of properties within overall categories. Not the mix of categories themselves. Your quoted charts do not attempt to correct for the sales mix’s significant shift towards higher-end properties, ie: the median has risen much faster than the mean.
These are the only two markets that will do well in the future in Canada and they represent almost 30% of the population.
Why?
1) Because that is where foreign money inflows from overseas are destined to park their money.
2) these two cities eventually receive 2/3rds of the immigrants to Canada.
3) population is generally younger so no demographic time bomb in these cities.
4) artificial land restriction like ALR, ocean, mountains, border , green belt, municipal policies, etc.
Results in sustained pressure on housing and rents due to population growth, foreign inflows,
#33 waiting on the westcoast on 12.06.15 at 3:44 pm
Undercurrents…
The gap is easy to explain. The US mostly ate its lumps and like Americans always do… shrugged it off and moved forward. Don’t think the government had much to do with it. Americans are naturally forward thinking and expect lead from the government (except OR/CA/MA).
We didn’t really experience a significant contraction in 2008/09. The combination of the Chinese infrastructure spend (massive need for commodities) and government spending / housing incentives / monetary easing here (not really needed) helped everyone feel wealthier. That is what is coming to roost now…
***************
I agree…it was obvious to a few. We have always lagged behind the US and this is most likely why.
and
#52 Chris in Nanaimo on 12.06.15 at 5:33 pm
We had about 5 months of non stop sun this year, actually had drought conditions. And we might go below zero a few times during the winter, and maybe one or two days of snow. We get a lot of rain this time of year, but so what…beats double digit minus temps and spending half your life shovelling snow.
I could not think of any where else i’d like to live in Canada personally.
**************
It’s a secret.
Then again it is a dream for you and I living on the Island but for everyone. The rain / clouds get to people over time.
___________
A paradigm shift needs to take place…local manufacturing, supported by local communities. With the technology at our fingertips maybe it is time to return to QUALITY manufacturing on a local scale. I see it slowly happening and all generations are involved.
It’s time to go back to our roots…just wished our insightful leaders (leaders…so to speak) would stop following the pendulum to the extremes and stop at the appropriate balance for the times.
Building update: High end building is still occuring (but doesn’t it always) …BIL still working. But not a lot of new spec builds, at least not like the past 10 years.
Mark
“Its my view that literally everyone in a company should be encouraged to perform R&D. Ranging from the janitor who may try out different cleaning chemicals/methods”
….
Our company hires a cleaning firm, buys the possible cheapest cleaning service. Cleaning company outsourcing the cleaning job to a minimum wage “contractor” to do the job late night. Wage slave “contractor” has no prospect of promotion, wage increase, overtime pay or even getting on payroll.
Who would do the janitor R&A in this scenario?
I live in fear that I may get beheaded by ISIS. Surely the solution is more government, Peter Pan agrees.
Man, sometimes I think you’re delusional.
Your economic predictions have been dead wrong so far. Almost like your subconsciously trying to go against common sense. Purposely? Subconsciously?
Examples :
1. Canadian dollar has gone down massively (Trillions in equity wiped out in Canada when measured vs a reserve currency). Still to go down about another 10 cents if oil stays low.
2. Prices in Vancouver are going higher. Simple fact. They are not declining like you say. Utter nonsense if you think otherwise.
The amount of damage the commodity/oilbust is causing the good ‘ol red white and blue is being understated. What’s happening in Cowtown with regards to the real economic drivers: construction(bwa-hahahahaha) is happening in most developed economies. A rate increase of .25% just might kill off this comatose patient. That is also being understated.
Too many broken promises and unfulfilled dreams. The young will pay for this. They always do now don’t they. The GREED. The STUPIDITY. The ARROGANCE. This country is a TOMB.
The ‘Doctors’ know not what to do next.
Kill the ‘Patient’. Capitalism is a dying ‘ism’. Put it out of it’s(4/5ths of Humanity) misery. Let us have at it. Let the fun begin.
Regarding oil prices – I had thought they would be rebounding sooner rather than later, but had also counted on 1) the mid-East blowing up & keeping the oil taps turned off due to said blowup & 2) the world economy not contracting/slowing down, especially the rebound in USA – they like to drive/travel during the summer months & had figured the oil stocks would be eaten up.
Well, despite the best efforts by ISIS/ISIL/nutbars in general, the mid-East is still pumping like mad & further, production has actually ramped up as formerly barred players like Iran join in the race to produce (& generate revenues – Iran must be hungry for income by now). So for now, the much maligned oil sands can’t compete with the much less expensive oil being produced. Further, the USA can’t be expected to use up all the supply all by itself, try though it might to do so. So price recovery will take much longer than expected, probably won’t be on the road to recovery before 2017 or even 2018.
#67 Mark on 12.06.15 at 6:44 pm
“If you look at the sales mix in Toronto and Vancouver”
Why don’t you bother to learn what the sales mix is rather than repeat your nonsense ad nauseum?
The sales mix is the statistical distribution of properties within overall categories. Not the mix of categories themselves. Your quoted charts do not attempt to correct for the sales mix’s significant shift towards higher-end properties, ie: the median has risen much faster than the mean.
///////////////////////////////////////////////
Whoa Buddy! I felt a little bit of passion in that post.
Better than your normal cardboard cutout of a personality.
Remember what I told you the other day though ,if you just jab you’ll never win the fight against the Troll.
Got to dig deep and find that knock out punch.
Don’t worry about face to face Mark find your inner tiger and lash out a bit more.Show some charisma once in a while and say something to him to put him off his game.
Just throw something out and see if it sticks. Here we go.
“Trollstoy if I wanna see a bunch of crap like that I would have gone to a cheap Mexican restaurant!”
To beat a troll ,you have to act like a troll or else you are just arguing with yourself.
You make blogging seem like work,when you could have fun like a lot of us do on here.Good luck Son.
I feel sorry for those who are out of a job, but I can’t understand how so many people making far more than the median wage for the work they do live cheque to cheque when they work in a volatile industry.
Multiple System Failure.
Garth Canada lags the world growth for one reason – we are the only modern economy that has not stuck our head in the QE punch bowl. China, Japan, EU, USA all sucked on the QE debt like pigs just to inch their economies ahead by 2% after 7 years. But that debt has to go somewhere in the end.
I commend our leaders for not doing something so stupid and instead trying to allow market forces to establish themselves.
That was funny. Harper ran some of the biggest deficits in Canadian history and added $10 billion to the national debt to fund the “Economic Action Plan,’ while the BoC has cut interest rates right up to five months ago, taking mortgages below US levels. Massive stimulus. — Garth
Why not go back over 15 years? Factor in US vs Canada stock markets, and housing and just for fun, include gold, and then assess what the ideal portfolio would have looked liked? As usual Garth, you define your focus in a way that supports your argument. Just to be clear, even if rates go up in December they are not going to continue to go up as you suggest. A US economy that is generating a GDP of 14 T with growth at 2% and forecasted to be 2% for the forseeable future cannot afford a slow and steady interest rate hike as you suggest.
The Fed has never raised rates once and stopped. Nor will it this time. — Garth
$9 strawberries and $40 starbucks thermos. Thank you, Canadian dollar.
RIP Lord Infamous, Koopsta Knicca.
#80 Bottoms_Up on 12.06.15 at 7:25 pm
$9 strawberries and $40 starbucks thermos. Thank you, Canadian dollar.
…
Wait till your palls, Wynne, Justin & Butts are done.
$45 Strawberries 200 Starbucks thermos..
But thats OK, we are saving the planet..
Some people can’t see the forest for the trees – and those living on credit are going to get sucker punched. This bubble is gonna pop like a ripe zit
Massive stimulus. — Garth
—
Lowering rates and some misdirected infrastructure spending are not on the same level as currency devaluation and bond buying. Thats like comparing marijuana to crack cocaine. QE gets right into the blood of an economy, a fast hit and addictive right away.
“…the US recovery has proven robust enough monetary policy is changing for the first time in ten years.”
a) What “recovery”? Waiters & bartenders?
b) How long do you think they’ll be able to maintain this (miniscule) rate manipulation/hike before it is rescinded?
@ Linda #9:
Not a lot of EI available for contract workers, like a lot of tradesmen in the oil patch. The newly unemployed in the island trailer park may be luckier than most, if all they invested in was their labour. Though many who invested in tools and equipment may have much more to lose.
If they were smart, they financed their rigs in AB, and just left them there to rot.
ead up on the concept of ‘the sales mix’. Its entirely possible (and highly probable in Toronto/Vancouver) that prices, just like in the rest of Canada have been falling on individual identical properties.
Naw, I’ve been following the market for a year (back off from buying 5 months ago) and everything is rising. Detached are having the doube digit YoY gains but even condos are up. Example of identical units in a complex: What was selling for $575K last Oct just sold this week for $610K. Not the massive gains but definitely still up.
There’s not sales mix mumbo-jumbo here, all RE has risen in the last year. We’ll see how long it can hold up
#72 @Mark on 12.06.15 at 6:54 pm
This is true. All the years of commentary about gold and the CAD have been wrong.
Even Toronto and Vancouver real estate. I consistently quote data that has been adjusted for sales mix that shows prices consistently rising for years. He has quoted… Nothing.
It’s sad.
Real estate prices in Toronto and Vancouver seem to rise without limit. But we all know that this is completely unsustainable and will adjust sooner or later.
Master Sun nailed it. The epitome of skill in Warfare is not to defeat a hundred enemies in a hundred battles. It is to defeat the enemy without ever having to wage War. The enemy will destroy himself out of his ignorance, arrogance and indulgence.
#68 Vancouver and Toronto on 12.06.15 at 6:48 pm
The reasons that you provided to explain years of real estate prices increases across the sales mix in Vancouver and Toronto have been provided before by other commentators.
They’re right until they’re not.
To paraphrase Undercurrents (#17): Why didn’t kick-starting of the US economy also stimulate the Canadian economy? Anyone have an answer?
“I bet you are lover of free money, who isn’t?
But are you doing any real cutting edge R&D for it – something that would matter in Silicon Valley or other places…
Or are you just paying for the SRED consultants to suck as much money off the program as possible, without any real impact on hi tech at all?”
Current company doesn’t use an external consultant. Last company used one for a year to figure out how the game is played.
Many high tech companies do cutting-edge R&D. Is all their SRED claim based on cutting-edge stuff or does other stuff sneak in? Who can really say? Certainly not a SRED auditor. Anyone qualified enough to sniff out envelope-pushing from legit deep research would be making more money in the private sector helping the companies write the applications. So they can bust a laundromat or somebody like that applying for SRED, but they can’t stop what is a defacto subsidy to the tech industry.
And yes, I like free money.
Latest in the War on Transportation. What about 50% of gas’s price paid in taxes? Tire tax? A/C tax? Plate tax? Emission inspection tax?
Carbon taxes next up. A global, supra-national decision. Elected governments needn’t apply.
..
Ontario to announce details for high-occupancy toll lanes
CBC.ca – 2 hours ago
The Ontario government will announce details Monday of its plans for high-occupancy toll lanes – and what it will cost drivers to use them.
We can still buy lots of interlisted companies that earn a majority of their profits in the US and internationally. To say you can’t make money on the TSX is wrong. The TSX has been a goldmine of three to ten baggers in the past five years. Only if you’re a dud of an investor and only buy ETF index funds have you made no money.
Incorrect. ETF investors have done fine while eschewing the significant risk of owning individual stocks. You describe gambling, not investing. — Garth
“….With commodity prices in the dumpster, unemployment getting structural and debt saturation close….”
******************
Christmas shoppers purchasing stuff we don’t need will put us over the top….learning the hard way seems to be the only way.
Proles are getting restless. Should we then expect our own made-for-tv event and ensuring ban on public gatherings, with curfews?
How far will they go? “Just watch me”? Et tu, T2?
https://www.facebook.com/events/1115266925151297/
Monday, March 7, 2016at 9:00am – 5:00pm
s
Created for Ontarians for a Recall Election to Replace Wynne and Tr
Recall is a process through which a registered voter can petition to remove a Member of the Legislative Assembly from office. A voter can only petition to recall the Member for the electoral district in which they are registered to vote.
On Thursday September 17th Conservative MPP Randy Hillier debated his MPP Recall legislation in the hopes of bringing more accountability to the Ontario Legislature. Hillier’s bill would allow constituents to recall their MPPs via petition if it could gain signatures from 25% of the number of voters from the last election.
$9 strawberries and $40 starbucks thermos
no problem
$1.50 raspberries at nofrills
the starbuck’s $40.00 thermos is a promo, entitling you to a free thermos fill up per day for 30 days, times the number of starbucks you can fill up at per day
Could no agree more with #52. I have lived in Vancouver for 40 years and cashed out 2 years ago and moved to The Island. No more fighting rush hour traffic and getting stressed out spending hundreds of hours a year commuting. If you want quality of life this is the place to be. Housing a lot cheaper, Car Insurance cheaper. Food fresh from the farms. Friendly laid back communities. Clean air. Hey life is good over here. One poster said people come here to die. What I see is more and more Families with younger kids are moving here for the quality of life. We all have to die some day, for me it might as well be in Paradise.
DELETED
the starbucks link
http://store.starbucks.ca/starbucks-coffee-and-tea-refill-tumbler-16-fl-oz/011052453,en_CA,pd.html?start=11&navid=black-friday&cm_mmc=Affiliate-_-CAqD7bLWUPI-_-Evergreen-_-na&siteID=CAqD7bLWUPI-Mv74X91l6zC00bzqp_mb3w
#98 and # 52.
I agree with both of you. I moved to Nanaimo from Cochrane Alberta in April. I luv it here. People are friendly. No rush hour traffic. For me, it is a privilege to live here.
#38 Mark on 12.06.15 at 4:18 pm
*you see the median rising much faster than the mean*
Interesting.
Let’s assume that is the case.
I am confused about your reasoning though.
Don’t you have your logic reversed: a higher median means a left skew, with a longer left tail, NOT a longer right tail.
We can conclude that the outliers would be more extreme at the lowest prices, not the highest prices. Or in other words: the priciest outliers are moving to the mean, not away from it, which is the exact opposite of your reasoning.
https://epilab.ich.ucl.ac.uk/coursematerial/statistics/summarising_centre_spread/measures_centre/comparing_mean_median.html
#15: “You deserve to make money from this blog, please blast in advertisements.”
************************
Garth is sweet, extremely kind, and he cares. The only one who does. He’s also a multi-millionaire. And he has explained numerous times that he does not need the additional income from this blog. Clear enuf?
Welcome to the Brave New World of the Canadian job market:
– all manufacturing is going to Mexico, India, Pakistan and China, built by robots and wage-slaves working 12 hour shifts, 6 or 7 days a week
– all high tech jobs are being outsourced to India and Pakistan, designed by millionaires working in Silicon Valley owned by the billionaires who run Apple, Google/Alphabet and Facebook
– the wealth from those industries and corporations is hidden in offshore tax-haven while the US and Canadian governments rack up ever-higher deficits
– the Canadian oil patch is on its knees while the climate change gurus want Canada to give billions to other countries to help them while Saudi Arabia just laughs at us and keeps pumping oil to the max, and lets us do the dirty work of dealing with ISIS
– the lucky Boomers have their wealth stashed away and have locked up the best houses and investment properties while everyone else scrambles to find a minimum wage job and a bachelor apt to rent
And Christy Clarke flies around the planet on her private jet with her entourage lecturing us poor slobs on what a great job her and her government are doing on climate change.
Thank-you. I feel a bit better now.
#27 washed up lawyer.
So true. People forget that Alberta has always been a work destination and when the employment opportunities falter many return home. Especially true of those from Newfoundland and those from British Columbia. Many working in oil & gas these past years in Calgary are professionals from other countries like Venezuela,Mexuco Columbia, Nigeria, etc. They can take their expertise south of the border to places like Houston. The BC roofers always gravitate back to the Island and the BC interior. Ft. Mac is really in a death struggle. Scary. Debt, divorce and despair. Lots of it.
Calgary feels more like Gotham city every day. A seedy criminal element more noticeable. Maybe it was always there, but when the music stops the people in the shadows take notice. 2016 will be a game changer. Those who have been paying attention and preparing may be better prepared to avoid the train wreck.
Scott Of BC “Can anyone explain this weeks drop in pref shares? Things were looking so good!”. The preferred share market is pricing in a possible rate drop in Canada. The preferreds trade irrationally most of the time. The rate resets which mostly trade off the 5year GoC Yield, will follow the rising rates in the US {as Garth already pointed out} . In short, just buy (ZPRCPD) in stages to your allotted portfolio weighting and you will be forever happy.
Saw a job posting in North Van that I am qualified for. Government job, good pay, security.
I almost applied for it but then thought I’d better check the rental situation in Vancouver. Jeezuz. $2000/month for anything decent, no pets allowed, highrise condo.
I’d be better off livin’ in a van down by the river.
@ mark, flop and Lt
Psychological Impairments of the Average Troll
1-Dissociative anonymity-You don’t know me
2-Asynchronicity-See you later
3-Solipsistic Introjection-It’s all in my head
4-Dissociative Imagination-It’s just a game
5-Minimizing Authority-You’re Not So Great Yourself
6-Narcissism-I speak for you
7-Lost in translation-Miscommunication
http://www.bestpsychologyschoolsonline.com/internet-trolls/
What was wrong with that one?
Line 1,2 or 3?
All of it. — Garth
#44: “There may be a thousand excuses for people to indulge in this reckless behaviour, but there is not one good reason. Too high risk. People need to operate with more more patience, creativity, and financial prudence.”
*****************
Excellent advice. It’s so elementary, shouldn’t even need to be explained. :-(
To all the Jewish dogs on here.
Happy Hanukkah.
Expect for NutAndYahoo. I just don’t like this man..
pinstripe on 12.06.15 at 6:34 pm
life in Alberta.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/labour-shortage-banff-tourism-1.3353120
===============================================
sooo…not enough Aussies wintering in the mountains any longer?
#109 For those about to flop… on 12.06.15 at 8:39 pm
What was wrong with that one?
Line 1,2 or 3?
All of it. — Garth
////////////////////////////////////////
Fair enough , you know I meant the French word for line # 3 ,wasn’t calling them you know what.Your the boss.
I will go out to my backyard now and beat myself with bamboo as punishment.
“– all high tech jobs are being outsourced to India and Pakistan, designed by millionaires working in Silicon Valley owned by the billionaires who run Apple, Google/Alphabet and Facebook”
People who say this have never seen the quality of work turned out by outsource shops in India and Pakistan. I’m sure what you are saying will eventually be true, but the outsourcing story has been going on fifteen years and so far all the good shit is still done in the first world.
You ever wonder, how tree huggers become tree hugger.
Idiots buying over priced real estate.
People who love Wynne And Justin with unquesting loyalty.
Industrial strength conformity.
If I took the bellow quiz, not only would I get the right answer, but would stand up and tell everyone in the room they’re all a bunch of idiots.
https://youtu.be/NyDDyT1lDhA
HJD on 12.06.15 at 7:53 pm
To paraphrase Undercurrents (#17): Why didn’t kick-starting of the US economy also stimulate the Canadian economy? Anyone have an answer?
================================================
US consumers were tapped out or in bankruptcy
RE:
This is the game that the government plays when calculating inflation. ie: A can of Campbells soup went up from $1 per can to $1.50 per can, but the average consumer has switched to no-name brand at $1 per can (was $0.67) so there is no inflation.
The Fed has never raised rates once and stopped. Nor will it this time. — Garth
Yes,,, they’ll raise rates .1% and then a further .1% showing they mean business. As soon as the world sinks into a further funk the Fed will reverse and sink rates back to where they were and then even further still.
Governments all over the world will eventually follow Canada into a Keynesian pattern and work like mad to break out of this deflationary grip.
While Garth may know a thing or two, read both Paul Krugman & Larry Summers blogs for real insight where direction is always backed by models which were proven years ago and still hold true today….. None of it is gut-feel but rather detailed reason supported entirely on models that work……
O.k now that I had a time out I will try again with a bit more care. Think French my friend.
Ode to Sales mix.
Sales mix…It gives me the shix.
Sales mix…all I’m looking for is a Dix. (10)
Sales mix …just give me the prix.(price)
Sales mix ,yeah!
Get some help. — Garth
104 BC Guy
Self pity and negativity will only make you miserable. Simply do what is best for yourself and ignore what you can’t change. It works for me.
Garth…#79….that is funny. Why do you state that interest rates will steadily increase so categorically (always been that way) rather than inspect the facts and provide a counter-argument? ie) yes, I understand that an economy that has GDP of $14 T and growing at 2% with a debt of $19 T and it can withstand steady increase in rates because….
Oh…wait…you can’t! So when facts and logic don’t work just dismiss different perspectives since it is a pathetic blog….
Does she, or doesn’t she? Only her DATA knows for sure…. The FED who has said “we’ll raise rates by the end of 2015….and also said they are a DATA driven group… well??? If you are “driven by the DATA,”
then how in hell can you possibly predict WHEN you will begin raising rates?
I’m reading too much into this like .25% will be nothing more than a small fart in a stiff wind. Even raising rates three more times over the next year will hardly be earth shattering. Except, of course, for those whose debts might renew at higher rates, and those getting into adjustable debt.
Well, not my monkey, not my parade. We get to select a new clown in chief come next November, oh great…
I will sell off most of the silly stuff, and go back into that basic index. Why not just collect what the equity markets offer less that .05% annual fee? I’ll leave the safe stuff.
Starbucks , Hortens, & mickey dee provide quite a slick marketing strategy aimed at the herd. Quite impressive and most effective.
Scarcity?
My Daughter called last night with a story we both had a good chuckle over.
She was getting her hair cut and chatting away with the 20-something stylist when the conversation turned to real estate. “Do you own?” Stylist asked Daughter. “No.” said Daughter. “Oh so you rent then” said stylist.
I had to bite my tongue Daughter told me. She is so far from the rule of 90 it’s pathetic. She has sold out all her dreams and is slaving away at a dead end job so she can say she “owns” a house!
My daughter who is 27, on the other hand, has been living her dream for 10 years. At the age of 4 she declared to me she wanted to be a Ballerina and from that day did not waver from her goal. At 17 she graduated from The Royal Winnipeg Ballet School following 6 grueling years training 6 days a week, 6 hours a day learning the craft of classical dance. The RWB school is a bit like the Navy Seals program. Many try but few graduate. They don’t let you waste their time if you are not cutting it. Oh, and in her spare time she graduated high school with the Governor General’s Medal for having achieved the highest average 4 years in a row.
So at 17, with pretty much nothing more than her dance bag (which did not contain any Lululemon), I moved her down to the States to begin her first job as a professional dancer. And for the next 10 years what a delight it has been to watch her dance the great Ballets to sold out theaters. Swan Lake being the most breath taking. Sitting in the audience for all those performances the same question is always asked when seat mates learn I am watching my daughter on stage.
“How long did it take?”
Few are willing to pay the price to achieve a dream. One must learn to do with out. For what they pay professional dancers, one must shun debt and be mobile. But over the years my daughter has seen the opposite. Fellow dancers start to buy houses, vacations, trendy cars and Apple watches.
Living a life financed by debt they are trapped, not wanting to make waves. But by living fiscally responsibly (as taught by Mom and Garth), the daughter has always had the option of leaving a company if it turns out to be run by an anal-retentive director. That has made all the difference.
Now 10 years later she and her shiny new husband have no debt and 5 figures saved as they ease into a transition from dance. They want to get out before it’s not fun anymore and though she still loves it, has no desire to be the oldest living Ballerina on earth.
She thought it would be hard to find a job outside of dance not having worked at anything else but is finding this not to be the case. It seems potential employers find a young person who has worked so hard to follow a dream a desirable asset.
Being debt free with savings leaves her free to pursue her next dream.
And to the hairdresser who sold out all her dream to “own” a house looking down on the renter, she says…”Good luck with that. I hope you find happiness.”
“Or is wiser to have a US REIT?” – Nanaimo
Look into buying shares of Tricon. Listed in Canada but U.S properties. It has a yield. Half of XRE but with 1/4 of the risk.
The Halo affect…
https://youtu.be/ZuometYfMTk
Difference between a top salesmen and one who gets fired, tiny difference.
Dr. Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics.
“Be very careful about Canadian exposure – in real estate and equities. ”
Couldn’t agree more with Garth and start watching some BNN until the end of year to see that portfolio managers are buying more U.S stocks right now.
I sold my CIBC stock and bought more $ZUB.TO. That ETF holds big U.S. banks like WellsFargo, but also U.S. regional banks. The fee isn’t bad (0.35%). Sure the dividend is only 1 point something percent, but you have NO STRESS ABOUT A POSSIBLE HOUSING SECTOR PULLBACK IN CANADA.
$ZUB went up 3% Friday. Mr.Market knows a rate hike is coming in 8 days and U.S. regional banks benefit from that, like insurance companies.
My credit card’s offering me 6 months zero interest. With a 1% fee. Balance transfer cheques. So, 5000 over 6 months is $50. 10k for $100. And so on.
Hmm I could start up a payday lending operation with bone jarring interest rates. Or put it into a TFSA. Well maybe if I were living in AB…
#20 RB is that the big FWD Caddy with Northstar engine? Interestingly it’s starter motor is buried in the V underneath intake.
From the archives. ..the caddy that wasn’t really..click on my name for link
#120 Freedom First on 12.06.15 at 9:09 pm
104 BC Guy
Self pity and negativity will only make you miserable. Simply do what is best for yourself and ignore what you can’t change. It works for me.
…
I beilive you’re a master of the Halo effect.. see above post.
P’s, my response the other day, I was hammered and mis interpreted what you where saying.
But in keeping with Nectonite tradition, you know I’m incapable of apologizing..
I say what I see..
You wouldn’t want it any other way..
Cheers..
Bit of my book…
Wondering with a quick internet search. Can any Blog dogs figure out who Hugo’s grandfather is.
………
Barrington shouts out and stops me dead in my tracks.
“Smokey, this is very interesting, farthest I can go back regarding Hugo’s ancestors.
His great, great grandmother’s name is Jduka Mandic, the Father’s name is Milutin, can’t make out his last name. Jduca was born in 1822 in Croatia, Milutin was a Serbian Orthodox Preacher.
“Wonderful.” I said.
We’re in Vegas, we have a shit load of loot, supernatural powers, and professor British accent is still working. Fck. Where did I go wrong as commander?
#119 For those about to flop… on 12.06.15 at 9:08 pm
O.k now that I had a time out I will try again with a bit more care. Think French my friend.
Ode to Sales mix.
Sales mix…It gives me the shix.
Sales mix…all I’m looking for is a Dix. (10)
Sales mix …just give me the prix.(price)
Sales mix ,yeah!
Get some help. — Garth
///////////////////////////////////////////
Ha! That’s what I’m here for!
I know you want to keep the title for the funniest guy on here but I’m gonna keep you on your toes.
You can laugh on the inside ,I forgive you!
Great post again Garth!
I think this Time you’re right about the rising of mortgage rates. It’s finally coming!
Many of my friends will have to make tough choices in 2016. Cheap money Will gradually come to an end.
Difference between a top salesmen and one who gets fired, tiny difference
the door knob close?
“Young people would like a house . . . but they’re not the cartoon characters pictured in the ad.”
“You forgot. It’s from Saskatoon”. — Garth
The chron is sask must be awesome!
I sold my CIBC stock and bought more $ZUB.TO.
…………………………………………………………………..
Something worth reading regarding concentration risk.
http://www.turnerinvestments.ca/pdfs/Less-Is-Less-NOV2015.pdf
#104 BC Guy on 12.06.15 at 8:33 pm
– the lucky Boomers have their wealth stashed away and have locked up the best houses and investment properties while everyone else scrambles to find a minimum wage job and a bachelor apt to rent
_________________________________________
Well, looks like you have your answer. Boomers are sitting on the wealth. Better develop the products and services that will cause them to part with their money. Get it circulating again. Skip SRED unless you can afford to have a person on staff just to deal with them.
#134 salonist on 12.06.15 at 9:59 pm
Difference between a top salesmen and one who gets fired, tiny difference
the door knob close?
…
Be nice, without salesmen, there would be no crumbs coming your way..
#136 espressobob on 12.06.15 at 10:11 pm
I sold my CIBC stock and bought more $ZUB.TO.
…………………………………………………………………..
Something worth reading regarding concentration risk.
http://www.turnerinvestments.ca/pdfs/Less-Is-Less-NOV2015.pdf
…
May the force be with you..
“Difference between a top salesmen and one who gets fired, tiny difference”
COFFEE IS FOR CLOSERS
RE:
Is that 1% per month?
#42 North Burnaby Condo on 12.06.15 at 4:50 pm
“You guys have all been warned: “Buy now, or be priced out forever””
—————————————————-
But condos are a dime-a-dozen and it’s getting easier and easier to buy. Metro Vancouver is a very short city, despite what most people believe. There will be high rise condo development for many decades still to come in Metro Vancouver.
#140 Sean on 12.06.15 at 10:30 pm
“Difference between a top salesmen and one who gets fired, tiny difference”
COFFEE IS FOR CLOSERS
…
JD is for the owner, and pay check signer..
Interesting here that mid island RV sales are doing very well, bucking the North American stats for sales. Not sure of the oil field workers that are displaced, they are here for sure as the trucks license plates tell but the retired that can’t afford to be Snowbirds because of the dollar and rising travel medical insurance costs are wintering here in the warm rain as a compromise I’m sure…
RE # 52 Chris in Nanaimo
Yes, Nanaimo is a great town, kind of like the Ozarks. High unemployment; everybody thinks they need to buy a house (read “95% mortgaged”), “cause it’s so cheap here” (average house price near 400,000; average income near 50,000. Hmm looks like Islanders are not very good at math). Very blue collar, lots of racism. You only have to look at the newspapers (crime section) in Vancouver or Victoria to see what caliber of people inhabit “Surrey by the Sea.”
And the weather? How’s it faring now? (Can you see your neighbor through the rain?). Main crop on the island in the summer is pot (which explains the average IQ), main crop in winter is mold; main activity is smoking pot, watching the mold grow, buying lotto tickets and planning how to spend their millions. Say no more…
How to avoid being on my shit list..
Nothing pisses me of more than people that have no minds of there oun.
They hide and seek security behind the tribe, cowards never saying what the little voice inside their head is screaming.
Its so sad, today we are in a world of celebrity worshippers, that behave for a pat on the head.
I just want to get kicked in the nuts …
It feels great..
Hey freedom first i sure hope Garth knows cpr!
#68 Vancouver and Toronto on 12.06.15 at 6:48 pm
“These are the only two markets that will do well in the future in Canada and they represent almost 30% of the population.
Why?
1) Because that is where foreign money inflows from overseas are destined to park their money.
2) these two cities eventually receive 2/3rds of the immigrants to Canada.
3) population is generally younger so no demographic time bomb in these cities.
4) artificial land restriction like ALR, ocean, mountains, border , green belt, municipal policies, etc.
Results in sustained pressure on housing and rents due to population growth, foreign inflows,”
—————————————–
Rebuttal:
1) While Van and TO are the largest repositories for foreign capital, they are not alone in Canada. Montreal has seen a lot of foreign capital too, as has Western Canadian farm land. That said, residential real estate is priced by the marginal buyer and their ability to borrow money. Foreigners can and do and have lost money, particularly through depreciation of CAD, because they overpay for unprofitable assets.
2) In 2014, Vancouver received 28,406 and TO received 75,821 immigrants from outside of Canada. This totals 104,227 out of 260,404, which actually equals 40.0%.
That said, previous years had Van and TO receiving a higher % of total immigration, meaning the trend is actually downwards (making your claim even wronger). http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/resources/statistics/facts2014/permanent/11.asp
3) Depends on your benchmark. Metro Vancouver’s median population in 2011 census was 40.2 (BC is 41.9); Greater Toronto’s is 38.6 (40.4). Canadian median age was 40.6. So Vancouver is very similar to Canadian median. Toronto is lower. But lets look at Calgary: 36.4 median age (Alberta 36.5). Calgary’s median age in 2011 was 3.8 years younger than MV’s! and 2.2 younger than GTA. That’s a big difference. So if you’re using Calgary as the benchmark, you’re wrong. If you’re using Canada, you’re wrong for Vancouver (since it’s essentially the same) and somewhat right for Toronto. Edmonton is also much younger than Van or GTA.
4) Yes and no. ALR is raided all the time for new development, so no. Ocean, yes. Mountains, yes but still can have condos near the water. Green belt is massive, but so is the unused land not in the green belt around the GTA. So this not really the impediment to housing stock growth people believe it to be, so no. Municipal policies are malleable, so no. You forgot Lake Ontario and the stigma of being south of the Fraser River, or annoyance of Lions Gate and Ironworks Memorial Bridges.
The reality is foreigners don’t want to overpay for housing because that’s a waste of money. So once interest rates rise and macro-prudential changes take effect, it will cut out the marginal buyers ability to keep pressure on the housing from the bottom, thus allowing the rich foreigners (and richer locals) to buy the same properties but at a lower price.
Not sure if Vancouver Island is a good bellweather of economic opportunity in BC…everyone I knew thru the late 90’s & 00’s was making their money in rapidly-appreciating RE, raw land, or restored musclecars…even the loggers were bitching…while they were working!
Linda’s right about things moving at slightly less than warp speed; all my relatives were (or have) been employed at slightly above minimum wage. Struck me very much as somewhere one goes to retire…as my dad did.
Tried to get me to move out there for years, & didn’t shutup about it until I told him he had to pay for it!
Garth
Just noticed that you snuk in a link for Turner Investments on the right hand side of the blog….impressive logo, and outstanding advice on this blog….
I think you may have to also form a few subsidiary companies as things go belly up in Canada…here’s some ideas….
Turner Debt Restructurers
Turner Expatriate Escape from Canada Services
Turner Marriage Counselling
Turner Divorce Services
Turner RE Investor Panic Attack Services
Turner all of the above Services.
I like that last one, because you can cover all the bases under one umbrella…..
Was the blog renamed the “Smoking man nightly bitch fest” and I didn’t notice?
“Those who expect past gains to be repeated are dreaming.
Well, here’s a summary of the last five years. US equity investors did great. TSX investors made nothing. Oil crashed. Houses in YVR and the GTA roughly paced the returns on a balanced portfolio, but detached owners did better (if they sell).”
Garth just to be fair and balanced, neither past gains OR losses are indicative of future trends, so investing in maple stocks is going to be attractive at some point due to valuations….
#4 Nanaimo on 12.06.15 at 2:05 pm
Would the rule about staying away from Maple include CDN Reits like XRE? Or is wiser to have a US REIT? Some of those US Reits have healthy yields. Anybody?”
Are you one of the Vancouver Island trailer park boys? If so, move to the front of the class, as you have opted out of the expensive RE market, but are still investing in it wisely, thru a different vehicle…..ur ready for Garth’s PHD Great Fool website…am guessing that the PHD advice will be to get trailers both on Vancouver Island and Cancun so as to balance both the budget and seasonal affective disorder caused by too much rain…
#128 TurnerNation on 12.06.15 at 9:32 pm
————————————–
Careful, as if you do the balance transfer and then use the card for regular purchases, you will be “trapped” in the proportional repayment scheme they use. So if you put $5000 through as balance transfer, and then run $5000 through as Xmas vacation, if you repay $1000, 50% goes to your balance transfer amount. So effectively to repay the $5000, you need to repay the entire balance $10000) to avoid regular interest charges. Thank the elfin deity for that rule.
We can still buy lots of interlisted companies that earn a majority of their profits in the US and internationally. To say you can’t make money on the TSX is wrong. The TSX has been a goldmine of three to ten baggers in the past five years. Only if you’re a dud of an investor and only buy ETF index funds have you made no money.
———————————————————-
This was my thinking too. In addition you’re buying companies earning USD and buying them for discounted CAD on the TSX. Wouldn’t these be the most attractive going forward? And I know a few who are ONLY listed on a Canadian exchange and not US….yet.
Plus extra boost for those holding no debt and not susceptible to interest rate increase.
“Would the rule about staying away from Maple include CDN Reits like XRE? Or is wiser to have a US REIT? Some of those US Reits have healthy yields. Anybody?”
I own CGR, which has an obnoxious MER, but at least is diversified internationally. It went up 15-20% the first three weeks after I bought it, and hasn’t really moved since.
#36 WeAreTheFools on 12.06.15 at 4:05 pm
It looks like Canada will NOT be raising interests rates no matter the US Fed does with theirs. I pity the fools who have be following the advice of this site.
Home ownership is a ship that is just TOO BIG to fail in Canada. The policy and money masters of this country will never let it happen, no matter what the cost.
They will SINK THE CURRENCY before letting deflationary pricing hit housing. ”
Don’t tell Mark, he is moose bullish on the loonie!
#107 BC Guy on 12.06.15 at 8:38 pm
I almost applied for it but then thought I’d better check the rental situation in Vancouver. Jeezuz. $2000/month for anything decent, no pets allowed, highrise condo.
That reminds me of a guy that the railroad I was pulling wrenches for had hired, named Mike Smith. Mike worked for a large electrical company in Alberta. We all eagerly awaited his arrival as he was supposed to be the best electrician since sliced bread. He worked for one day and was gone. Everyone was asking “what happened to Mike?” Turned out Mike was out here on holidays shopping around for a better job. Once he looked at the cost of living in 604land he beat a hasty retreat to Alberta … never to be seen again. And this was years ago …
KK it’s 1% flat fee at time of cheque deposit. Stated on cheque itself. My other CC (a MC) offers similarly so.
#130 Smoking Man
Yes. You’re right.
If I had a yes man working for me I would fire him. No value.
WEARETHEFOOLS number 36
It looks like Canada will NOT be raising interests rates no matter the US Fed does with theirs. I pity the fools who have be following the advice of this site.
Home ownership is a ship that is just TOO BIG to fail in Canada. The policy and money masters of this country will never let it happen, no matter what the cost.
They will SINK THE CURRENCY before letting deflationary pricing hit housing.
If you are reading this, then consider yourself one of the unlucky. My condolences.
_____________________________________
I don’t understand this comment! In relation to the major reserve currencies of the world Canadian RE has already gone down by at least 25% with your falling currency and exchange rate. More RE price drops will come in 2016 as your dollar slides to $.70 US or even less.
The winners are not Canadians living in Canadian houses but Canadians who had the sense to transfer their assets into US or GBP denominated accounts last year.
#121 IGoBlind on 12.06.15 at 9:13 pm
“Garth…#79….that is funny. Why do you state that interest rates will steadily increase so categorically (always been that way) rather than inspect the facts and provide a counter-argument? ie) yes, I understand that an economy that has GDP of $14 T and growing at 2% with a debt of $19 T and it can withstand steady increase in rates because….
Oh…wait…you can’t! So when facts and logic don’t work just dismiss different perspectives since it is a pathetic blog….”
Facts and you just don’t get along, eh?
US GDP (2014): $17.419 trillion
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD
You confuse a “forecast” (Garth thinks interest rates will rise) with “facts” (i.e. backwards looking – historical interest rates).
But since you’re curious, here are some facts to draw your own conclusions about the US’s ability to raise rates:
1) the Fed owns $2.462 trillion of US debt, so they are paying interest to themselves on this amount, thus lowering interest expense to investors to $16.317 trillion. The Fed plans to continue to to reinvest the interest into US debt for the foreseeable future, thus providing a cushion of demand so interest rates don’t spike.
2) the US pays an average of 2.324% on their outstanding debt. That’s pretty low. The 10-year bond yield is lower at 2.291% as of writing on Sunday night.
3) They’ve extended the weighted average maturity since 2008, to 69.6 months in Q2 2015. It is expected to rise continuously to 85 months by 2025. That’s 5.8 years and 7.083 years, respectively.
Sources:
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TREAST
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/rates/pd/avg/2015/2015_11.htm
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/quarterly-refunding/Documents/August2015TreasuryPresentationToTBAC.pdf
http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/world-government-bonds
#145 ed on 12.06.15 at 11:05 pm
RE # 52 Chris in Nanaimo
Yes, Nanaimo is a great town, kind of like the Ozarks. High unemployment; everybody thinks they need to buy a house (read “95% mortgaged”), “cause it’s so cheap here” (average house price near 400,000; average income near 50,000. Hmm looks like Islanders are not very good at math). Very blue collar, lots of racism. You only have to look at the newspapers (crime section) in Vancouver or Victoria to see what caliber of people inhabit “Surrey by the Sea.”
And the weather? How’s it faring now? (Can you see your neighbor through the rain?). Main crop on the island in the summer is pot (which explains the average IQ), main crop in winter is mold; main activity is smoking pot, watching the mold grow, buying lotto tickets and planning how to spend their millions. Say no more…”
I swear I could hear the dueling banjoes as I read that…..is it really that bad there?
“Snowbirds because of the dollar and rising travel medical insurance costs are wintering here in the warm rain as a compromise I’m sure…”
C$ is killing travel and shopping south of the border. Taxes , fear and a bum market are killing travel and shopping her. people can’t afford to buy groceries. I stood beside a stranger recently in an IGA who was literally blanked out and spitting about not being able to afford to buy meat.
I saw cauliflower in Superstore at $5.69 per….and Lettuce at $4 bucks. Every time the C$ goes down the cost to transport food north goes up ( as all gas is paid for in USD) so expect higher prices and more starving seniors.
I saw a quote for snowbird travel medical for over 50’s to the US at $1100.
The Fed has never raised rates once and stopped. Nor will it this time. — Garth
Raised in 1936 only to reverse in 1937. Actually, the circumstances compared to today are not so dissimilar in many ways.
I assume the chart above is showing that oil is historically cheap and that the S&P is pricey (like R/E in YVR and GTA). 3% world GDP growth should increase oil demand.
Crude oils is trading at $39. Down from Friday’s OPEC meeting.
Garth, once Yellen raises rates, how long do you think it will be before there is any noticeable effect on our markets? In terms of the bond markets and actual fixed rates? Hazard a guess?
….Nothing changes too fast these days. Six months from now life’s struggle won’t be much greater than it is now…Six years from now interest rates will be 18% with the US dollar no longer the worlds reserve currency. Change will come fast and furious then.
Had a chat with a friend in a comfy govt job. Hey hubby is in the rent a trailer and build a half million mc mansion – live in the mc mansion for a year – sell and rent a trailer while building the next mc mansion business.
Told her interest rates went up, and noticed the mc mansion they are in right now went up for sale the very next day. Been a couple of weeks, and I hear no offers yet so far. This is a house that would have sold in a jiffy a few months back. The economy either really is as bad as G says, or people are just spooked about a crash. Would be interesting to find out in a couple of months if a greater fool showed up.
#42 North Burnaby Condo
“Buy now or be priced out forever”
Srsly? If you believe that and like real estate I have a bridge to sell you…
People are nuts. Yeah houses are going to increase so much that no one can afford to buy them- that makes perfect economic sense. I’d understand if you were a real estate agent talking to some clients but on here I wonder if you actually believe that.
Yes it really is bad here…don’t bother moving here, life sucks…
“Surrey by the Sea’? Oh I think we need lots more gang driveby shootings to compete with Surrey….
One of many bits of collateral economic damage….stay tuned for more
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/where-have-all-canadian-tourists-gone-0
146 smoking mutt!
Your doing your part!
I think you should get a tax credit for that!
You are helping to saving the planet
Oh…and Nanaimo’s current unemployment rate is 4.4% vs 7% across Canada.
http://www.investnanaimo.com/cms.asp?wpID=134
#147 No debt
cpr? is that an ETF?
#61 – What are they doing in the US to warrant such a relatively good economy?
They are being American, not British!
Your last line was “wait to buy”
wait to buy what?… and when do you know when it is time?
YVR economy as A WHOLE is not sovereign and without any “boom” economic indicators reported.
RE then, really a pyramiding scheme. Pyramids fail when new entrants at the bottom do not see themselves cashing out any time soon. This leaves those in the pyramid “holding the bag.”
This is probably happening now.
Pyramid will be exacerbated when fixed rates in mid December are forecast to increase and more so with minimum down-payment increases end of January (money more expensive and more money needed to get into the pyramid).
YVR skittish about RE, just look at historical downfalls and increases (fast and furious) – tells you something about the past honesty of their RE trade group (read their historical take on an imploding market: “a buyers market” – understatement at its very best).
YVR pyramid will react before then and with haste to cash out…typical of pyramids that fail: every man and woman for themselves.
In the mean time, have yourselves a happy holiday on borrowed money and time. Watch the news carefully…say mid-January.
#38 Mark “…if you see the median rising much faster than the mean”
Firstly, it would be useful to know where the mean is relative to the median (i.e., median , =, which is it?) before beginning to prove your hypothesis.
The reason for this is skew (examine figure below Introduction section: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skewness).
Assume x-axis = selling price, only argument per your hypothesis that makes sense. Y-axis = number of sales.
Median: middle value in an arithmetic series of numbers.
Mean: average value in an entire population.
Negative Skew: mean median (most home selling prices lower than the mean).
Secondly and thus, your argument is based on whether the bulk of the population is purchasing properties that are higher or lower priced than the mean vs. what is reported.
And your hypothesis is a trend for what?
Finally, a trend for nothing more than the preference of home buyers in terms of purchase price. You may be able to conclude the population is well healed with negative skew or for that matter, qualify for higher debt loads. The opposite is true.
WHAT YOU REALLY “MEAN”
What you really want to hypothesize about is the MODE, the most frequently occurring number in an arithmetic series.
If the mode > mode, this means that the average reported selling price is not representative of the selling price that most frequently occurs. If the mean increases relative to the mode, then higher priced properties are indeed “skewing” the market.
#163: “I swear I could hear the dueling banjoes as I read that…..is it really that bad there?”
Some parts are, though it’s not quite as bad as it used to be. Nanaimo has been gentrified somewhat in the last couple of decades and the culture is no longer entirely blue collar and trailer trash, but there’s still high drug use and property crime per capita there.
The problem with the island isn’t the weather (Vancouver gets more rain), but the lack of industry. It’s a service-based economy, and in any downturn, it will historically fares far worse than many other areas.
It’s a great place to retire, because retirees don’t need jobs. If you want a job, go elsewhere.
typo, read subject.
#148: “The reality is foreigners don’t want to overpay for housing because that’s a waste of money. ”
Like almost everyone else outside this blog, they think prices are going up forever, so there’s no such thing as overpaying. The reality is that foreigners are buying property in Van without hesitation.
Sure, most property in the GVRD is bought by locals borrowing more than they can afford, but foreigners are buying too, and they’re not balking at the prices.
And when locals see foreigners snap up expensive RE, the locals are convinced that everyone wants to live here, RE goes up forever, and they borrow like idiots to get on the gravy train before they get left behind.
Eventually it’ll stop, but only god knows when.
Garth keeps calling for rates to rise precipitously, but I’m not convinced that it’s going to happen in the next few years. I expect the Fed will raise it a bit and leave it there, terrified that raising it higher will tank their marginal recovery.
The only reason that property values are still going up in the Vancouver area is the amount of LAUNDERED money floating around.
An example, I was in the Hard Rock Casino in Coquitlam the other night and this late 30’s-early 40’s pretty dyed blond lady and her pretty blond friend were sitting at a couple of slots each and continued to pump in 20’s…
You’d think they were losing. These ladies just kept on pulling 20’s out of their purses and plugged the machines, not caring if they were winning or not, they seem to win every time after they threw money in. The machines were making all sorts of noise.
They were betting 5 bucks a spin.
In 10 minutes I saw them “deposit” more than 5 G’s of 20’s in the machines……And they just kept pulling 20’s out. They weren’t even noticing if they were winning or not, even though I saw wins that would make anyone whoop it up. Nope, just business as usual.
They weren’t wearing anything that expensive, except both had HUGE purses, that’s why they caught my eye.
And another time I saw an asian man at the River Rock Casinocount out exactly $9900 in hundreds at the cashier, took the chips, played $5 Blackjack for about 10 minutes, spending about 15 minutes there and then cashing out.
I spoke with a dealer friend and he says it happens all time.
Nope nothing to see here in BC, just bring cash….Any cash, it’s all GOOD.
The River Rock Casino in Richmond no longer has contests to draw people in because of all that money that is being “lost” in the casino.
It has the only minmum $1000 bet BJ/Poker type gaming tables in BC and there were no spaces. Minimum $10 tables for everything.
Who has that kind of money to bet/lose? Oh yeah, Chinese “business” people, because that’s all that was sitting at the table.
Don’t worry though, our esteemed Minister who set it all up is Rich Coleman, a former cop….
Need I say more??
#165 RoCK BEATS PAPER on 12.07.15 at 12:14 am
The Fed has never raised rates once and stopped. Nor will it this time. — Garth
Raised in 1936 only to reverse in 1937. Actually, the circumstances compared to today are not so dissimilar in many ways.
********************************************
I was thinking the same thing. Garth loves to make definitive statements. He has already acknowledged this crisis and recovery is similar to the Great Depression yet thinks interest rates will rise like a typical business cycle recession.
News flash, boys: it’s not 1936. — Garth
Beijing issues first ever red alert for smog.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-35026363
There will be no coming back for the old Alberta.
The smart ones already figured that out and have sold.
Albertans, look to Windsor, ON to see where your home prices are going.
(On second thought, Windsor has a much nicer climate, so take 20% off those prices)
Calls to distress lines are way up in Alberta.
Suicide rates have exploded in Alberta, up over 30% this year.
The largest group is men in their 50s.
These are the sad after effects of a real estate bubble and an economy built upon outdated ways of thinking about our lives on this planet.
Say a prayer to all those families.
http://www.cbc.ca/news
Real Estate Bubble: Canadian Housing Prices Could Crash 44%, Insider Says
http://investmentwatchblog.com/real-estate-bubble-canadian-housing-prices-could-crash-44-insider-says/
Another mortgage investment firm fails.
http://us8.campaign-archive1.com/?u=a3e2039936cbf8a31bda45ab3&id=07288b7163
Booo, TFSA changes coming for Jan 1st. Would have also been nice to admit they were bad at math before they were elected.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberals-to-concede-tax-plan-wont-add-up/article27628146/
What if the pickle was up the dog’s butt?
The Bank Of Canada is nowhere to be found this morning to support the Canadian dollar. Support in the past always came in before 9:30am but not this time. Look for a one cent plus drop in the Canadian dollar today.
As Bob Geldof sang, I Don’t Like Mondays. NYMEX crude futures at $38.60, close to the 52 week low.
From Marketwatch – OPEC previously had a production ceiling of 30 million barrels a day, but members have been producing closer to 31.5 million barrels a day, according to market estimates.
“No result is also a result, and in the case of OPEC it is hard to imagine a more negative one,” said Commerzbank commodity analysts in a Monday note. “If in a critical situation OPEC cannot even agree on a lowest common denominator such as an official production limit, it is permissible to question its right to exist. In any case, the oil price looks likely to find virtually no support from OPEC in the coming months.”
Believe it.
“…Wait to buy.”
Wait to buy what, equities? bonds? homes? All of the above PLUS everything else?
Homes and Canadian equities are obvious, but excluding those, what else is a risky buy right now?
#191 Tony on 12.07.15 at 10:32 am
The Bank Of Canada is nowhere to be found this morning to support the Canadian dollar. Support in the past always came in before 9:30am but not this time. Look for a one cent plus drop in the Canadian dollar today.
….
$uch a bummer …lol
Up another 177k since Fridays close…lol
You ain’t seen nothing yet..
#189 Todd
this is hilarious…
and expected.
Canada “on sale” …. anybody buying?
“Real Estate Bubble: Canadian Housing Prices Could Crash 44%, Insider Says”
Wow, how exact that percentage! As opposed to, say , 43 percent, hey?
The trouble with etfs and the notion of wide diversification? You get the bad with the good.
#68 Vancouver and Toronto
You will never get agreement on these points on this blog …. because here, you know, it’s RE Apocalypse soon, and everybody is “preparing their popcorn” thinking they will escape the fall-out.
#157: “It looks like Canada will NOT be raising interests rates no matter the US Fed does with theirs. I pity the fools who have be following the advice of this site.”
*****************
Canada followed the USA into this abyss, so it stands to reason Canada will follow the USA out.
Trump soaring in the polls.
MSM on full frontal attack mode. What the machine hasn’t figured out yet.
MSM about as popular as congress is. The more they attack him, the stronger he gets.
Sadly, It takes a dyslexic drunk to figure it out.
#194 Smoking Man on 12.07.15 at 10:50 am
#191 Tony on 12.07.15 at 10:32 am
The Bank Of Canada is nowhere to be found this morning to support the Canadian dollar. Support in the past always came in before 9:30am but not this time. Look for a one cent plus drop in the Canadian dollar today.
….
$uch a bummer …lol
Up another 177k since Fridays close…lol
You ain’t seen nothing yet..
—-
Offset by how much you lost with the ww3 long oil bet?
I BEG you Janet..RAISE THOSE RATES!!!
#178: “In the mean time, have yourselves a happy holiday on borrowed money and time. Watch the news carefully…say mid-January.”
***********************
Canadian charities expect total donations around Christmas to hit the $5 billion mark. Hmmm…..
Yep it’s not 1936 boys…
But when Janet raises those rates I pray, it may just feel a lot like it and have my long USD bet get a lot stronger..sure it’s gambling vs investing but you have to take a shot once in a while…
Time to buy Canadian yet? Remember after Xmas sales will be better than before Xmas…
Let the carnage begin and yes Sincerely God Bless everyone in Alberta, especially those in financial trouble.
#202 Wild roasted gonads on 12.07.15 at 11:28 am
#194 Smoking Man on 12.07.15 at 10:50 am
#191 Tony on 12.07.15 at 10:32 am
The Bank Of Canada is nowhere to be found this morning to support the Canadian dollar. Support in the past always came in before 9:30am but not this time. Look for a one cent plus drop in the Canadian dollar today.
….
$uch a bummer …lol
Up another 177k since Fridays close…lol
You ain’t seen nothing yet..
—-
Offset by how much you lost with the ww3 long oil bet?
…….
Oil bet is a hedge, USA just boomed Assad forces, now UK getting in on the action.
So when USA and UK say they are hitting ISIS they are going after ASSAD
When Russia says its Hitting ISIS its hitting ISIS and us backed rebals.
I don’t know, think was a good hedge, time will tell.
Game Over for Canada…get the EI cheques printed!
@Tim, post #76:
My thoughts exactly. Oil and gas, like many industries is cyclical and has boom periods followed by periods of bust. It has happened before, and any wise person in this industry should have built up some savings during the boom years in case it goes bust again, which it has recently.
As I’ve asked many times before, where’s this coming labour shortage the “experts” have been predicting?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/suicide-rate-alberta-increase-layoffs-1.3353662
The sad state in Alberta has increase suicide rate by 30% this year. SAD!
Reading some of the comments about the article was interesting as well. One in particular discussed how the NDP was the death cross, quote:
Notley have done nothing but kick the energy industry while it is down. Specifically they have:
1. Increasing corporate taxes
2. Set wheel in motion to increase royalties
3. Doubled the carbon tax
4. Hired anti-oil sands advocate Brian Topp as Chief of Staff
5. Hiring anti-pipeline protester Graham Marshal as Energy Chief of Staff
6. Announced the shut down of all coal fired power plants in Alberta
7. Withdrawn support for Keystone XL and Northern Gateway
8. Increased spending on public service sector unions
Hope things turn for the better, but i am no greater fool. Moved more out of Canadian equity today. Changed 10% to the US equity.
For all the naysayers that state that Canada won’t raise rates following the new on December 16, I pose a question. If Canada doesn’t raise rates where do you think the money invested will go? Bingo! Follow the money, or in this case the rate!
Strange days indeed. The Loonie has dropped like a rock today in toe-step with oil’s plunge below $40/barrel. Prices will have to rise to pay for the imported goods we consume in Canada > inflation > higher interest rates > housing correction > recession > layoffs > housing crash?
Let’s hope I missed something in my logic chain.
The Conservatives brought: DTV of the Air/Antenna, and Liberals will bring Maryjane to get hi and stupid. This is how the crowds are manipulated and kept quiet, like mushrooms in the dark and fed bull shizt.
Ignorants do not see too far to understand; sheepels as we say here…
Goodbye oil, goodbye TSX; Goodbye Rate Hike. US jobs news out this am.
Hello Preferreds and Treasury Blondes!
Yeah baby who luvs ya.
WTI Crude $37.97 -2.00 -5.00%
11:42 AM EST
Chris Hedges is really in an up beat mood of late…
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/apocalyptic_capitalism_20151206
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/the_age_of_the_demagogues_20151129
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/states_of_terror_20151122
Chinese buyers flood US real estate markets.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/29/business/international/chinese-cash-floods-us-real-estate-market.html?_r=0
Burn baby burn. The Loonie that it is. Lol
People close to poloz (and those that knew this guys true intentions from the beginning ) are winning the lotto.
By the way, don’t bet big now (short the Loonie). The BOC and big money will spike our Loonie for a few weeks just to burn the late arrivals. Can’t have everyone win the lotto. They’ve done this twice already since last year.
Pays to be close to those in power.
CDN dollar just went under 74cents
New low
Loonie with 73 cent handle.
Prices going up.
But inflation will magically be less than 2%.
“We gotta worry about deflation you know”. LOL
winners and losers
first up, cpd.to resumes it’s plunge back toward 52wk lows. lots of holders here, yes?
second (sorry RC) KMI, absolutely murdered. down 50% over 7 weeks – div now 13.2% , single digits ahead?
(special mention for turner nation also for pumping this- hope it was just talk and you don’t own any)
third – costco – new 52wk high today, sales #’s strong, more locations coming faster in 2016.
With a down turn in the Alberta economy, the indicators lately show an increase in crime rates.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/eckville-hotel-robbed-by-masked-men-with-shotguns-1.3353955
The reports from the geezers on the wet coast have always pointed how the laundered money is free wheeling.
The politicians turn a blind eye on laundered money because any inflow of money is good for their talking points. Sure the consequence hurts the masses but who gives a hoot about the masses?
I wonder if harpo knew WHO controls the movement of the shipping containers at all the ports of entry to Canada?
Just asking.
The head of CMHC is saying RE could crash by 44% if oil stays at $35 for 5 years. That crash does not take place in one day at the end of 5 years of $35 oil. It would be a decline over a 5 year period of say an average of 9% per year. We are at $38 oil now. Close enough to $35 so we can assume if CMHCs model is correct the crash is in motion now and RE will go down by 9% per year as long as oil stays low. We can also assume the CMHC model is a tad optimistic. This likely does not even factor in the inevitable rate hikes which will put further downward pressure on RE prices. What happens if oil goes to $30 and or China’s economy further slows? This could easily be the biggest RE crash ever.
Now why aren’t the TFW/IMP programs cancelled and immigration curtailed. Thousands in Alberta are losing their jobs.
But MSM keep spewing out propaganda…how long will the sheep buy it?
The following story is disgusting and the Canadian people should take note.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/suicide-rate-alberta-increase-layoffs-1.3353662
#206 Smoking Man on 12.07.15 at 12:16 pm
#202 Wild roasted gonads on 12.07.15 at 11:28 am
#194 Smoking Man on 12.07.15 at 10:50 am
#191 Tony on 12.07.15 at 10:32 am
The Bank Of Canada is nowhere to be found this morning to support the Canadian dollar. Support in the past always came in before 9:30am but not this time. Look for a one cent plus drop in the Canadian dollar today.
….
$uch a bummer …lol
Up another 177k since Fridays close…lol
You ain’t seen nothing yet..
—-
Offset by how much you lost with the ww3 long oil bet?
…….
Oil bet is a hedge, USA just boomed Assad forces, now UK getting in on the action.
So when USA and UK say they are hitting ISIS they are going after ASSAD
When Russia says its Hitting ISIS its hitting ISIS and us backed rebals.
I don’t know, think was a good hedge, time will tell.
—————
They certainly are all trying to help you out! Bomb everything. Proxy war.
As I predicted, the Krampus Rally is over, and don’t expect a Santa Rally to come to the rescue.
#201 Smoking Man on 12.07.15 at 11:23 am
“Trump soaring in the polls…”
===============================
Yes, well… sort of…
‘Soaring’… not really, SM.
Granted, he’s leading the most pathetic pack of Republican hopefuls that I’ve ever seen.
But it’s early. Back in October 2007, Hillary Clinton was leading Barack Obama by 29 points; 50% to 21%.
On the republican side, Rudy Giuliani was leading Fred Thompson by 12% and Thompson was ahead of 3rd place John McCain by 3 points.
Overall, among ALL voters likely to vote, only 14% support Trump.
Garth, It is finally over. One of today’s headlines,????
“Foreign money buying up Winnipeg Condos.”
As if anyone would be stupid enough to do that.
“Winterpeg” the heart of spec investing. Oh ya!
Looks to me that realtors think that people are as dumb as the dirt they stand on.
B-U-T. I suppose that they will con a few “greater fools” in. Such is life in the big city.
Have a great day.
Carnage.
WTI Crude $37.56 -2.41 -6.03%
1:27 PM EST
#114 SRED lover on 12.06.15 at 8:52 pm
People who say this have never seen the quality of work turned out by outsource shops in India and Pakistan. I’m sure what you are saying will eventually be true, but the outsourcing story has been going on fifteen years and so far all the good shit is still done in the first world.
One of the main purposes of SRED is to keep some IP development here in Canada, done by Canadians. Outsourcing firms from India and Pakistan (and Romania and Slovenia and …) are actually quite adept (and very cost effective) at lower level IP work such as custom reports or database queries.
The real benefit of SRED is that it makes it economically possible for companies to keep the development of new, valuable IP (native apps, complex web applications etc.) in the hands of trusted developer employees in Canada.
#179 Mark and Statistics on 12.07.15 at 4:34 am
FYI this won’t be addressed.
Whenever a poster asked for clarification or evidence on RFD, Mark typically left the conversation.
That’s it, I’ve had it with canuckistan….
Finland, Finland, Finland
The country where I want to be
Pony trekking or camping
Or just watching TV
Finland, Finland, Finland
It’s the country for me
http://news.nationalpost.com/news/finland-to-pay-every-citizen-1100-per-month-and-scrap-all-other-benefits-in-effort-to-reduce-unemployment-rate
Yeah baby who luvs ya on 12.07.15 at 2:33 pm
Carnage.
WTI Crude $37.56 -2.41 -6.03%
1:27 PM EST
…………….
Wow.
2016 will it go negative????lol
Couple observations with regards to this story about Ken and the wife in the trailer park.
There are no trailer parks for families in the GVRD. It sucks that young couples and families are obligated to either rent high or buy a stupid entry level townhouse etc.
Good for Ken and his wife to have been able to find cheap accommodation.
There is probably some work on VI but not at the rate that Ken is used to getting paid.
The high wages of the Alberta oilpatch were an anomaly. There are no replacement jobs that pay $80/hour and time and a half.
If Ken were to go out and work for $25 or $30 / hour as laborer, I’m sure there would be some demand.
Other than that…. keep trying and good luck!
Holy guacamole
What just happened to oil (6 % down today) and to the CAD ( in the 73.. range?)
When Iran starts pumping oil it could go to 20 $.
And stay there for a decade.
“can’t find a minimum wage job”
Oh come on. That has to be hyperbole. Can’t find one she wants to do? My sister managed a retail store (until she gave it up for something more sane), finding people willing and able to work even a few bucks above minimum wage was difficult. Basically she had to settle for teenage girls that would show up late, ask to leave early and expected to be able to text all day instead of helping customers. Plus it’s xmas right now. There are tons of temp jobs in retail, coffee shops are ramping up staffing etc. There are definitely minimum wage jobs out there.
In my field, there is definitely a shortage of qualified people, but that’s YVR brain drain (YVR pays better, and has cooler jobs despite “Techtoria”).
Skilled trades are all over the place. All the trades I know have plenty of work, but they have established businesses or work for one. Even the sketchy companies that lay off employees during short down periods have been hiring. But, my anecdote means nothing as far as the market on whole and it’s YYJ specific. I could totally believe Nanaimo isn’t great, and anywhere else is smaller than Nanaimo (so probably worse). That’s the problem with the island. Victoria is expensive, but it has the jobs. If you choose to commute to Victoria you are putting your life into the hands of people with bald tires who cross the centreline.
What’s up Bill?
http://www.fin.gc.ca/notices-avis15/2015-12-07-eng.asp
commie pinko?
You should be thankful that intellectual poverty doesn’t hurt.
#225 JimH — “[…] Overall, among ALL voters likely to vote, only 14% support Trump.”
I LOVE Republican primaries. Like watching fifteen clowns climb out of a Volkswagen at the circus.
Months at the top of the polls, filling stadiums (30k seats or something, in Arizona or Alabama or Arkansas or somewhere), and all the pundits had all the reasons (or opinions without any… but surely SOMETHING will trip him up…) why he wouldn’t be, couldn’t be, shouldn’t be the nominee.
This is a different style of race from four years ago, when the baton kept being passed through a passel of losers (from Mr. “bimbo eruptions won’t affect me” to “I’ll kill three federal departments, 1, 2, and I forget”, to “Family is the bedrock of America, which is why I’ve had three” to “I buy my suits at the back door of the undertaker’s ” to “vote for me, but for heaven’s sake, don’t google my name”). Eight years ago, we had the man who was both a maverick and a party stalwart(?) win out and nominate a VP who couldn’t name (or even lie about, on the spot) a magazine she read regularly. Twelve years ago a memorable “a noun, a verb, and 9/11” candidate, along with “you may have seen me on TV as…”
And now? Carson’s numbers are dropping like KMI’s, the Republican brain trust is saying “Dear Lord, when we prayed for ‘anybody but Trump,’ we didn’t mean Cruz” and Rubio is living the American dream as long as he slams it shut on all his latin american brothers. Sheldon Adelstein can’t figure out whether to put his chips on [colour #1] or [colour #2], and the whole thing sinks into a farce closing early due to poor reviews and low audience numbers… with Iowa and New Hampshire just around the corner.
I don’t want to get all conspiracy theory and all, but Trump, needing few backers, owes less than most to the powers that stir. And his private plane has a pretty big heat signature.
Wow it’s ugly out there! The next 2 weeks of tax loss selling could be one for the record books. CPD has been a weapon of mass portfolio destruction. Nowhere to hide today.
#214 APOCALYPTIC CAPITALISM on 12.07.15 at 12:56 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1WBs74W4ik
News flash, boys: it’s not 1936. — Garth
News flash Garth. They haven’t held rates this low for this long SINCE the Great Depression. To say there is no chance they can reverse course like this was some garden variety recession is ridiculous. There has already been a precedence for it coming out of a similar deflationary situation. Come one now.
There is no US deflation. — Garth
Re: #220 pinstripe on 12.07.15 at 1:41 pm
The reports from the geezers on the wet coast have always pointed how the laundered money is free wheeling.
The politicians turn a blind eye on laundered money because any inflow of money is good for their talking points. Sure the consequence hurts the masses but who gives a hoot about the masses?
I wonder if harpo knew WHO controls the movement of the shipping containers at all the ports of entry to Canada?
Just asking.
Ask Paul Martin as his ship that was given to him in the early ’80’s by Paul Desmarais SR. (Power Corp.) for future considerations (ahem), that was caught full of tons of cocaine. Nothing done about that, er ahem, nothing to see over here folks.
So CPD is down 20% ytd and yet a hsbc Can equity fund with basically the same mix is only down 4% .
Why such a big discrepancy between the two?
Equity funds do not contain preferreds. The angst over CPD simply shows many people buy it for the wrong reason, which is yield. The capital value will return and meanwhile you’re collecting a fat dividend. Stop the moaning already. — Garth
“Prices going up.”
No they aren’t. Demand is falling keeping consumer prices under control. Even beef, the big outlier in the food basket price-wise has peaked and is now heading down.
“Whenever a poster asked for clarification or evidence on RFD, Mark typically left the conversation.”
I always provided extremely thorough explanations and statistics when required. So (and no surprise to me), you simply do not know what you’re talking about. Go find something else to troll. Nobody takes you seriously.
As of today, my US acct has made me 30% in two years after fees.
“There is no US deflation. — Garth”
If it looks like a duck, smells like a duck, and walks like a duck……
Smells like the future to me. There is no US deflation. — Garth
The times when crappy bungalows at ‘trendy’ location in To/Van could fetch 1.2-1.5 mln USD are gone.
Whoever sold and converted to USD hit the jackpot.
With the decline both in CAD and in housing how low would the price in USD go for the above ‘temptations’, supposedly desired by everyone in the world?
My prediction is max 250 k USD.
500 k at 0.5 loonie?
Or 700 k at .35?
the choice is yours.
Whoa ,calm down big boy!
I don’t own any CPD, I was just wondering what all the fuss was about. I have seen all the moaning on here about preferreds and understand about holding them and collecting the dividend in the mean time.
Thanks for the explanation but I think you gave me a it of tough love for no reason.
I am a buy and hold investor as I’m not savvy enough to wheel and deal.
You still mad at me about yesterday?
#244 Mark
Not sure which universe you are living in.
You can’t find normal pair of shoes (let’s say Clarks) for bellow 140 $. Used to be 70 $.
With CAD going down everything imported is going up.
You theories target closed market, i.e. when local demand is down, there is no alternative where to export and the local producers would bend to sell at lower prices, even at loss.
With global markets many of the goods are imported and importers demand higher prices due to lower loonie.
Likewise exporters can export at higher prices overseas/abroad.
Note that current loonie weakness only reflect falling oil prices and to some extent stupid BOC policy with low rates and some limited deficit spending.
When it becomes evident that oil prices will go down to the twenties, even could go bellow 20 $, deficit will be much larger and with the horrific fall of house prices triggers CMHC losses to be covered and real deficit triples, then watch out for the loonie.
We will only see price increases from now and further dive of the loonie. How is that USD shorting going?
If BOC has any brains left they will start raising rates.
When all the factors – further decline in oil prices, housing fallout and wider deficit cause the credit to seize then watch out, they can’t do much other then some form of QE on a very large scale which will literally destroy the CAD, then even double digit rates will not help.
Prepare for much higher prices of everything and much less money in your pocket.
USDCAD with Oil Hedge P&L up over 200k since Fridays Close.
USA Tax Farm Gig so far today up 1k USD, and I’m still in my Pjs
Keep doing what your doing you commie liberals.
I’m calling a 1.5 USDCAD by spring…
Also, when the BC Liberals first took office in 2001, they were raided by the RCMP and the RCMP announced that organized crime had infiltrated the Legislature.
Well what happened?
RCMP got a very favorable new long term contract in BC and a brand new shiny $1 billion building in Surrey with a bar for 500 beer drinking cops.
Not another peep about crime in the Ledge, even the theft of BC Rail didn’t appear on their radar.
Birds of a feather I guess.
Yup, times are good in Canuckville….if you’re a criminal politician or a cop. Lots of business out there for them. The money’s flowing and more to come with the carbon tax everywhere.
Just don’t ask what is happening in the Ledge or you’ll be branded a terrorist by Premier Christy with her hard hat and shite eating grin, when she isn’t flying around the world belching greenhouse gasses….
“LNG profits for everyone!” Christy declares. Site C in NE BC is really a water diversion project for the US and Mexico, with profits paid to the private power producers in the background who are owned and chaired by former BC Libs-Socreds. All this while they let BC Hydro drown in debt, soon to be sold to those insiders just like the BC Rail theft.
In Cowtown for the week visiting. Ouch. BIL follows RE closely (real numbers, not CREB BS) and figures that ACTUAL prices are dropping about 5% per month right now. He also has a Kijiji trap line on bikes, boats and sleds. Tons for sale and he’s stink bidding them. Started doing this a couple of months ago and sellers were insulted when he’d offer them 50% of their asking price.
He says now you can hear the wheels turning at the offer, but they politely refuse. Maybe after Christmas when the bills come due.
Vultch time.
#250 Smoking Man on 12.07.15 at 4:46 pm
SM delivers. Again.
Great job man.
Follow SM if you want to make $
Follow Mark if you want a laugh
No deflation. CAD/oil/gold going to dirt.
USD/U.S. economy booming.
Vancouver and Toronto house prices continue to set themselves up for an epic price correction.
News out Home Capital corp lowers ROE estimate – by 20%
It is tough being a one trick pony like Alberta.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/suicide-rate-alberta-increase-layoffs-1.3353662
Site C in NE BC is really a water diversion project for the US and Mexico
………….
Whaaaat? Does the peace flow through tijuana?
#251 Where’s The Money Guido
Also, when the BC Liberals first took office in 2001, they were raided by the RCMP and the RCMP announced that organized crime had infiltrated the Legislature.
That’s about the same time Premiere Campbell got arrested in a foreign country (Hawaii) complete with drunken mug shot for impaired driving. He has since went on to a cushy job as the Canadian High Commissioner to the United Kingdom.
What a system they have created to lie cheat and steal from us
A simple google search revealed even more than I expected about Mr Campbell
http://gordonlara.blogspot.ca/
And he represents Canada
OIL fell to 37.69
Prepare for job layoffs to accelerate.
And dammit, government cut TFSA limit to 5.5k.
#244 Mark on 12.07.15 at 4:16 pm
“Prices going up.”
No they aren’t. Demand is falling keeping consumer prices under control. Even beef, the big outlier in the food basket price-wise has peaked and is now heading down.
—————
You truly are profoundly deluded. Since nobody could possibly that unobservant or stupid, then you must be a troll and nothing else. Links dude to prove you aren’t an idiot of epic proportions.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/morneau-liberal-taxes-for-middle-class-1.3353939
“Morneau: TFSA limit will fall back to $5,500 in 2016 and will be indexed; 2015 limits will be kept at $10k. #hw”
As this blog told you would be the case. — Garth
@Sideshow Rob, post #239 and For those about to flop, post #243:
Well, well, here we go again complaining about the late Black Friday or early Boxing Day sales for CPD. Just what part of the words buying opportunity don’t you understand? Is it the buying part, or the opportunity part?
Re: #258 bdy sktn on 12.07.15 at 5:14 pm
Site C in NE BC is really a water diversion project for the US and Mexico
………….
Whaaaat? Does the peace flow through tijuana?
They will divert via canals to the US river system, also via tankers to LA-SF initially.
$7 billion for the dam will double to pay for the canals.
By that time BC Hydro will be broken up and sold to BC Lieberal-Can. Gov’t insiders so we pay their infrastructure and they get all the goods.
The power will be sold for a profit, so we minions will pay MORE thru their PPPs to pay for cheap rates to Big Business.
From the Peace> to Columbia>Snake>Colorado>Rio Grande
Granted it will take an immense amount of manpower and money (but we taxpayers have oodles don’t we?).
What better than a collapsed economy and desperate workers to pay peanuts to do the slave labor needed. Who needs TFWs when they can get those cheap wages right here.
The plan is almost complete.
http://www.waterwarcrimes.com/ has some interesting reading……of all kinds.
It’s 2015 Garth. No one has worked with girls since the Mad Men days of the 1950’s/60’s. We work with women. If you don’t want to be accused of sexism, don’t talk like an old boy. You are way better than that. Still love you though.
Have no idea what you’re talking about. — Garth
Of course you don’t sweetheart. But you would never refer to black men as boys, as that would be highly disrespectful, and not since the 1960’s did we call the women we work with “girls”.
You need a puppy, babe. — Garth
Lol! I just got a hamster.
Female, or neutered male? — Garth
He’s got a full set.