The predicament

HIPPO

Terrie’s 31. Peter, 32. Young. In love. Skewered.

“We came across your blog not too long ago, and this is our situation,” she tells me. “We make a combined income of 130 to 140 k, counting overtime, rent in Toronto and pay about 1,000 for 1 bdm. We just got married in July and were saving for a house, until my impulsive nature got me into convincing my husband to buy a new build townhouse in the suburbs – it will be completed in August 2016, cost 470 k. We have so far sunk 13 k into, and must come up with another 20 k. We owe about 33 k in student loans (my student loans), and used our savings for our wedding. Where can we go from here, as we signed an agreement with the builders and can’t get out it? I’m stressed. Please help, yes I got myself into this mess. Thanks and God bless.”

Over the next few weeks and months I’ll wager more people will be waking up in a cold sweat over a real estate decision. No wonder. The perfect storm gathers. If you’re thinking about buying a property, especially in Vancouver or the GTA, think about these seven things first.

There’s a jobs disaster building. The numbers Friday morning were pathetic – a loss of almost 35,000 paycheques last month, wiping out the gains of October (which were pumped up by temporary hiring for the federal election). The private sector shed 40,800 positions last month, which shows you what oil creep is doing. Another 15,000 jobs gone in Alberta. People who are worried about their incomes do not buy houses, no matter how cheap mortgages are.

Interest rates will rise. There was little doubt before the hot US job numbers Friday, and none now. So the Fed will begin the normalization process on December 16th – a tightening cycle expected to last about two years and add roughly 2% to current levels. Anyone taking a mortgage today should therefore expect to renew it in five years at almost double the rate. The US economy is expanding robustly as ours croaks. And while the Bank of Canada will hold off following the Fed for as long as possible, our bond market won’t. Cheap rates brought torrid house prices. Rising rates can chill fast.

The oil funk deepens. The price tumbled again on Friday – now down to $40 or a tad less – after OPEC producers refused to cut output, even though the world’s drowning in crude. Every day there are 2,000,000 more barrels of oil produced than are consumed, and it’s jammed into ocean tankers, underground reserves and tank farms. More production is set to come from Indonesia and Iran, and already Canada’s output is unloved and uncompetitive. Calgary’s screwed, and the misery won’t stop there.

Soon be back in recession? Job loss means our unemployment rate’s jumped, while higher rates and lower oil squeeze the national income. Now exports are tanking. On Friday we learned October was the 14th consecutive month Canada has run a trade deficit.  We imported more than we exported – the same as you spending more than you earn. Exports to the booming US dropped by the most in almost three years. Oil down 2%. Declines in 10 or the 11 main sectors. No wonder jobs are vanishing. No wonder the TSX is down 9%, among the worst performers on the planet.

More spending. More taxes. Canadians have chosen to elect governments addicted to spending, and will pay for it. Ontario owes more money than God. Alberta has raised taxes on people, companies and carbon. The T2 gang is about to roll back retirement savings, end income-splitting, jack taxes on the successful, creating a net loss, and it looks like their budget deficits could be double what was predicted (says the independent Parliamentary Budget Officer). Also coming are more restrictions on small business owners, an increase in payroll taxes for the public pension and massive spending to create temporary infrastructure construction jobs. More borrowing puts upward pressure on interest rates while higher taxes decrease family cash flow. Nothing good here for the price of a house.

Fools surround you. At least if you live near the GTA or in the Lower Mainland, where November real estate numbers were insane. A frenzy has erupted among those who smell higher rates coming and want to ‘beat the increase’ by buying at peak prices. Duh. Sales volumes jumped in both markets, and prices followed. Mortgage debt has amped higher in 2015 by almost $80 billion, with little corresponding increase in incomes, and none in savings. All around you, people are gambling everything on one asset – at a time when the gathering clouds could not be thicker, blacker.

And the rules are set to change. To contain this house lust, the feds are planning to raise minimum down payments – all the way to 10% for houses prices around $700,000 or more. Combined with rising mortgage costs, oil funk and mounting employment anxiety, the result could be sharp. The old government contemplated it, and balked. The new guys figure they can pull it off and survive. But, you know… horse. Barn.

So Terrie and Peter, you earned that stress. It’s one thing to buy just before a storm if you have lots of equity and a balanced life. If’s suicide to do so with no savings and epic leverage. Kiss your deposit goodbye, file your papers and walk.

264 comments ↓

#1 Bob on 12.04.15 at 6:44 pm

Unemployment up to 7.1%.

30% of economy dependant on construction.

Not looking good.

Anyone for KD tonight?

#2 TurnerNation on 12.04.15 at 6:45 pm

Is that Smoking man in this picture?
I don’t know butts as a non smoker.

#3 Leo Trollstoy on 12.04.15 at 6:50 pm

Terrie and Peter just destroyed their own financial future. Good job!

#4 karl hungus on 12.04.15 at 6:52 pm

Tried to walk away from a condo deposit last recession, builder said they would sue me for the difference of selling price.

Did you expect a gift pack? — Garth

#5 Paul on 12.04.15 at 6:56 pm

Yes we import more than we export 50,000 at the gates!

#6 Gray Man on 12.04.15 at 6:57 pm

The Fed raising rates would amount to reverse QE , not going to happen.

#7 pathcontrolmonk on 12.04.15 at 6:58 pm

Yep, as usual my friends and family in 604 are doubling down. I haven’t heard of any of them cashing out. Some grad student in the not too distant future will be writing his masters thesis about the RE-fueled Great Canadian Depression.

#8 BC Guy on 12.04.15 at 6:59 pm

There are plenty of jobs out there. Mostly low-paying, near-minimum wage jobs with few benefits and no future.

Here’s a sample from my local job board:
– seasonal server/waiter
– cook
– home support worker
– retail clerk
– retail associate
– gas bar cashier
– data entry
– food counter attendant
– dishwasher
– food counter supervisor
– hairstylist
– labourer
– subway sandwich artist
– house parents

Where are all the middle-class jobs?

All you 1%ers will say: get an education and get a better paying job. Well, I did actually. Every single job I got over a 15 year period payed reasonably well but was always under threat of layoff, outsource, downsize (which has been ongoing in banking, manufacturing and service for the past 25 years unabated)

You 1%ers will then say, “well, get off your ass and be an entrepreneur, create a business”. Well, I did actually. But there are a couple of dozen people competing with me in a very tight market. Nobody’s making a profit. I’m also competing against a big box US chain that hires desperate staff at minimum wage and undercuts me.

Then the 1%ers will say, get into a new business with not as much competition. Well, every industry and every vocation and every contractor/consultant is competing with 5 or 6 businesses doing the exact same thing.

So it’s dog eat dog.

I’d buy a piece of land and become a homesteader, grow organic food, and retire from the insane labour market but land in BC is outrageously expensive. Hundreds of thousands/acre. Locked up by the 1%.

Say you wanna a revolution?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-04/january-us-has-added-294000-waiters-bartenders-and-zero-manufacturing-workers

#9 Alberta Ed on 12.04.15 at 7:02 pm

Not to worry. Fluff-for-Brains said it’s all sunshine and ponies from here on out; the budget will take care of itself.

#10 Yvr screwed on 12.04.15 at 7:03 pm

Shared the news about new downpayment rules coming, coworkers laughed at me saying the market will never go down in van, I was ridiculed. In 6 months time I will be the one laughing. Getting my popcorn ready

#11 JSS on 12.04.15 at 7:05 pm

Yet at least seven Canadian banks increased their dividends this year.

If the Canadian economy is in deep trouble, then why did the banks increase their dividends?

#12 Freedom First on 12.04.15 at 7:06 pm

Peter. Used your (our;) savings for the wedding. more money gone and in debt for a townhouse not built yet at near, or top, of a RE bubble. Plus your fiance owes $33,000 in student loans. Love hurts, ay Peter.

#13 Homeless in B.C. on 12.04.15 at 7:07 pm

Speaking of getting out of contracts, how do we get out of the Trans Pacific Partnership? Stephen Harper slam dunked us into this thing.
Trade agreement have allowed Monsanto to force South American farmers to destroy their seed stocks and buy Monsanto GMO’s. Canadian grain farmers will be up against the same plan from Monsanto under the TPP.

#14 james on 12.04.15 at 7:07 pm

470k for a townhouse in the suburbs? No thank you. Their family income isn’t low, but I’m curious to know the nature of their employment. Unless it is public sector, I’d be worried.

Met a fellow in Seattle who happened to be from Calgary. Works for Amazon as a fairly junior software developer. Nice guy, and he was praising his luck in finding a job in the USA just a couple of years out of school. I interview so many young Canadians who want out of Canada, but the truth is that they are competing in a global marketplace when they try to gain entry to the USA.

I am glad I jumped ship 3 years ago. I would not want to be facing the downturn up there, with a plunging currency and a worsening employment situation. If the bubble had burst years ago it would have been much kinder.

#15 Frank on 12.04.15 at 7:09 pm

GF wants to buy. I told her to wait a year without mentioning it. Iv think she’ll be happy in a year when everything is on sale.

In the meantime should we be scooping up TSX? It’s cheap.

#16 Patrick on 12.04.15 at 7:10 pm

“People who are worried about their incomes do not buy houses”

I know some people who would defy you on this point. The story behind that picture must be epic.

#17 Goldie on 12.04.15 at 7:13 pm

Nasty news about those job numbers. Thankfully, we’ll be bringing in fifty thousand mostly unskilled Syrians, otherwise I’d really be worried!

#18 Market Man on 12.04.15 at 7:16 pm

Interesting article. In the financial post
Collectively the banks have laid off the most in six
Years

#19 Freedom First on 12.04.15 at 7:17 pm

Peter. I mean wife.

#20 Patrick on 12.04.15 at 7:18 pm

#7 BC Guy on 12.04.15 at 6:59 pm

“Well, every industry and every vocation and every contractor/consultant is competing with 5 or 6 businesses doing the exact same thing”
___________________________________

You forgot one option. Move to the developing world. Your cost of living is lower, your savings goes farther and your skills are an actual advantage, not a dime a dozen. Opportunity usually doesn’t come in the mail with a bow. I imagine people in Europe said the same thing 200 years ago. Some came to America.

#21 I'm stupid on 12.04.15 at 7:20 pm

No need to worry about the unemployment number, these people can become uber drivers. We’ve seen how well condo economies work so let’s try an uber economy.

#22 zee on 12.04.15 at 7:21 pm

Hey Garth

Why do you always take Cdn economic data and finds faults with it whereas with American data its all rosy.

And why see the Liberals as a Problem when Harper is the one who created this mess. No reason for Harper to keep pushing Housing higher resulting in Canadians heavily in debt when its was not needed. That would have been more appropriate now when the Economy weak and not over the last few years.

#23 oradb2 on 12.04.15 at 7:24 pm

“Ontario owes more money than God” – its been some time since I read a more funny(yet true – well almost :) remark!!!
Keep doing great work,Garth…
You are among very few sane voices left in this real estate crazy world…

#24 Whoever on 12.04.15 at 7:27 pm

Not sure what anyone thinks of this developers prediction on toronto condo prices but here you.

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/12/3/Toronto-condo-prices-could-soar-40-predicts-developer.aspx

#25 RoCK BEATS PAPER on 12.04.15 at 7:28 pm

Thanks Dr. Doom!

On your 7 points:
1) Forecasting rates out two years is a fool’s errand. Besides the Cdn 10 yr is 70 bps less than the US.

2) Oil from Indonesia (give me a break). Of course you are quick to point out the the interest rate rise is priced into the S&P 500 but you should then point out that Iran, the glut, OPEC not increasing…this was already priced into the forward curve as well. What is not priced in is America gas guzzlers increasing their consumption due to their alledgedly robust economy!

Classic double bottom in oil prices (and double top in the US $)

3) The bad unemployment report does not tell us we are headed for a recession. It is lagging and telling us what we already new – that the 1st two quarters were recessionary. Dito for trade, as this is energy related (see point 2)). I think the US has had a negative trade and current account balance for decades! Same with debt.

The TSX has never underperformed for more than 5 years in a row compared to the US, and this is the 6th year coming up.

4) Massive spending means stimulus, which along with loose monetary policy means Canada is the only country in the OECD that will be coordinating fiscal with monetary policy. Very powerful if executed well for the economy.

5) Totally agree with this – fools everywhere horny for R/E. I think T2 needs to lead a group overseas to drum up some more buyers at these prices you know, to help out poor Terrie and Peter.

6) the rules may change, but I am a bigger believer in less government intervention. I would wind down the CMHC altogether.

#26 Mike in the Okanagan on 12.04.15 at 7:32 pm

Garth you are so good at putting me in my happy place. Time to hug the dogs.

#27 Bobs ur uncle on 12.04.15 at 7:36 pm

Never mess with a hippo – faster than Usain Bolt apparently.

***

Shocked gamekeeper runs for his life from three ton hippo:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1208479/Shocked-gamekeeper-runs-life-ton-hippo.html

#28 -=jwk=- on 12.04.15 at 7:38 pm

The downpayment changes are pretty much irrelevant. buyers of 1M homes in Toronto have 200k from selling their 700k home at a profit. Buyer of 700k home as 150 k from selling their 500k home at a profit, etc.

All this change will do is create another stampede for upgrades and drive prices even higher…

#29 Gerard Trump on 12.04.15 at 7:42 pm

DELETED

#30 Noreasontoworry on 12.04.15 at 7:47 pm

Not sure that the Fed can afford to raise rates in a steady fashion? The US is a $14 T economy growing at 2%, even a .25 basis point increase will over-burden a nation with a $19 T debt level to service?

How Garth do you see the US managing that? All of those low paying under the table service jobs will generate the tax revenues?

#31 Randy on 12.04.15 at 7:50 pm

Oh Oh, who’s gonna buy my house now ?

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/why-the-high-end-housing-market-is-heading-for-trouble-chinas-cash-buyers-are-vanishing/

#32 Bananasan on 12.04.15 at 7:54 pm

Hey Garth: I see the Great Congress of the Exclusive Maple Flavor Rightwing Extreme Dingdongs is brainfarthing unabated in the comments. I can feel your pride, must be some form of extreme art collection? Just a note of caution: I did my sociology PhD thesis on the correlation between baldness and rightwing ideas – found a 93p correlation with a confidence level of 95p margin error +/-3p. The second point of the thesis was that both characteristics propagate in tandem with spread patterns characteristics of veneral diseases. I just could not infer the propagation mechanisms. So approach with care.

#33 souvereigninternational on 12.04.15 at 7:58 pm

Watching TV / reading MSM on Canadian RE bubble: Everyone with some brains can see the tsunami cresting at this point, they are denying it while they want to prepare / exit before the stampede. At this point I have no doubt it will crash soon.

Now let’s read sth. interesting:

http://www.salientpartners.com/epsilontheory/

#34 Gulf Breeze on 12.04.15 at 8:01 pm

#7 B.C. Guy,

I hear you. There are several billion more people on the planet than when I was young — and in developing nations that are highly competetive. Not to mention all the factors you mention, including automation. There has never been a more difficult time to get (and hold) a decent job.

My advice? When older wealthier morons give you the gears, don’t waste word or breath on them. Just turn your back and walk away. They are beneath contempt.

#35 Dogman on 12.04.15 at 8:02 pm

Hi Garth
Can you splain this.
I recall the last govt was able to increase the TFSA just by stating the intention to do this.
What does the T2 govt have to do to reduce it, is it as easy as just stating the intention to do so
I did not hear of it in the throne speech, so is their
still a chance we will make it to Jan 1 without a peep.

#36 Loonie Watcher on 12.04.15 at 8:03 pm

Sweet Lausanne!

35,700 jobs lost! Considering Canada’s population is roughly 11% of the U.S., that’s the equivalent of the U.S. shedding 323,800 jobs. Could you imagine if that’s what this morning’s U.S. jobs report looked like?

Canada is SCREWED!!!!

#37 dutch4505 on 12.04.15 at 8:06 pm

Living in Bellingham WA I get the CDN news (CTV, CBC etc) on my local cable. Yesterday on CBC I seen three ads follow each other…..bankruptcy ad, debt consolidation ad, and get a $300,000 line of credit ad. Gave me fond memories of 2007.

#38 where's the middle class? on 12.04.15 at 8:06 pm

best post #7

the middle class is all public service all the time now

get into it or drown

1% – public service – peasants

#39 Gulf Breeze on 12.04.15 at 8:08 pm

#16 Goldie,

And what would you prefer? Poor Syrian immigrants (not unskilled, uneducated) who will put every last cent they make into rent and food and necessities — or super wealthy international monied class that would pump real estate more than it has already. Give your head a shake.

Your post doesn’t even rise to the level of racism. It’s motivated more by blinkered stupidity.

#40 Bram on 12.04.15 at 8:09 pm

I think these buyers do not read Garth’s blog.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/home-and-garden/real-estate/furnished-vancouver-sub-penthouse-a-good-long-term-investment/article27608771/

$3M for 1469 sq ft a ‘good long-term investment’?
I doubt it. My guess is that it will be worth half that in 2026, if that. (provided we don’t get hit by large inflation rates.)

#41 TurnerNation on 12.04.15 at 8:14 pm

BHP cuts 76 Canada jobs, keeps building potash mine
Reuters Canada – 2 hours ago
WINNIPEG, Manitoba (Reuters) – Anglo-Australian miner BHP Billiton PLC BLT.L will cut 76 jobs from its Canadian potash operations due to low commodity prices, a company spokesperson said on Friday.

#42 FronzenNorth on 12.04.15 at 8:16 pm

@#14 Frank
If you like TSX at 13000 you’re going to love it at 10000.
It’s not on sale yet.

#43 cd on 12.04.15 at 8:17 pm

he next little while is going to be rough for people similar to Terrie & Peter. However, there is a good chance that marijuana will be semi-legal in a year or so maybe thats the solution.

#44 Ronaldo on 12.04.15 at 8:19 pm

#10 JSS on 12.04.15 at 7:05 pm

”Yet at least seven Canadian banks increased their dividends this year.

If the Canadian economy is in deep trouble, then why did the banks increase their dividends?”

You’re the genius, you tell us.

#45 Caught In The Grip on 12.04.15 at 8:22 pm

A. Gary Shilling is forecasting oil goes all the day down to its marginal cost at around $20/bbl.

If this occurs, imagine where the $CAD will be – not taking into account other factors adding to its poor performance.

It may not go straight down but I think we could see $CAD below the old lows of 62 cents in 5 years or so.

#46 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.04.15 at 8:25 pm

@#7 BC Guy
Well you avoided blaming rich people for your travails for almost 2 weeks! A new record!
All your attempts at employment and or self employment, while admirable, seem to be focussed on either jobs that there are tons of people competing for Or a company that has too much competition.
How about a trade? Or nursing?(male nurses make great money and the female nurses like them when there is heavy lifting or belligerant patients).
Basically any job where you can get paid while your doing your apprenticeship is a win win.
Your dream of homesteading may just have to wait a bit longer.
Dont give up AND dont sit back blaming everyone with money for your troubles……it wont solve your problem.

#47 Leo Trollstoy on 12.04.15 at 8:25 pm

At least if you live near the GTA or in the Lower Mainland, where November real estate numbers were insane.

Toronto and Vancouver real estate prices continue to rise unsustainably across the sales mix. The fall will be epic.

#48 Caught In The Grip on 12.04.15 at 8:25 pm

Expect to revisit the Brain Drain of the late 1990s when the $CAD meandered in the 60s. Why work in Canada when you can go to the US and earn greenbacks?

#49 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.04.15 at 8:27 pm

@#37 Dutch4505
Yep. A friend works in bankruptcy protection in Vancouver….he’s never been busier……….

#50 Mark on 12.04.15 at 8:28 pm

Ross Kay smackdown on the CMHC:

http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2015/12/cmhc-misleading-impact-of-foreign-condo-buying/

The guy certainly doesn’t mince words over the quality of CMHC’s ‘data collection’ and the propaganda it passes off as ‘fact’ on its website.

#51 Caught In The Grip on 12.04.15 at 8:29 pm

David Rosenberg recently wrote an article for The Globe & Mail describing the TSX under performing the S&P 500 for the past 5 years. This has only happened once before (late 1980s – early 1990s) after which the TSX outperformed in snap back fashion. This could happen again. Guess what else happened in the early 1990s when the TSX took off? A housing correction.

#52 Herf on 12.04.15 at 8:32 pm

“Kiss your deposit goodbye, file your papers and walk.”

“We just got married in July and were saving for a house, until my impulsive nature got me into convincing my husband to buy a new build townhouse in the suburbs . . . “

“We owe about 33 k in student loans (my student loans), and used our savings for our wedding.”

Let’s see . . .
They cut their losses by walking away and losing their $13K deposit, and (hopefully) don’t have to shell out the additional $20K that they’re told they need to cough up for the deal to continue, nor get taken to court by the builder. Chalk the loss of the deposit up to “lessons learned”. Check.

Terrie then tacks on the $13K amount of the lost deposit to her student loan of $33K, making her total debt $46K, which she should feel obligated to pay off by herself since it was her “impuslive nature” that egged/nagged Peter into buying the townhouse in the first place. Check.

Pete then continues to sock away a nest egg for himself (or for both of them if the marriage lasts, if he’s willing).

On the other hand, maybe Pete should divorce Terrie before starting building his nest egg to reduce the amount of his income/nest egg that she can get her hands on?

On the other, other hand, maybe Pete should have to cough up part of the $13K (or $46K?) since he was limp enough to get talked into buying the townhouse by his wife?

Hey, FF (Freedom First), what say you, confirmed (smart) batchelor that you are?

#53 Chris in Nanaimo on 12.04.15 at 8:33 pm

Wow Peter….your new wife pulled a real number on you didn’t she…..presumably spent YOUR savings on the wedding, incumbered you with her student loans, and now on the hook for a house which you were press ganged into buying by the sound of it.

And people give #Freedomfirst grief for staying single….

#54 Leo Trollstoy on 12.04.15 at 8:36 pm

#21 zee on 12.04.15 at 7:21 pm

History will paint the Libs with the brush of Canada’s economic collapse.

Ditto for the NDP and Alberta.

That’s just how it’s gonna be.

#55 TurnerNation on 12.04.15 at 8:39 pm

So, who’s higher in the pyramid?
I feel like a mushroom: kept in the dark and fed sh_t.

http://www.edelman.com/insights/intellectual-property/2015-edelman-trust-barometer/

“”Trust in government, business, media and NGOs in the general population is below 50 percent in two-thirds of countries, including the U.S., U.K., Germany and Japan”

#56 IHCTD9 on 12.04.15 at 8:40 pm

#38 Gulf Breeze on 12.04.15 at 8:08 pm
#16 Goldie,

And what would you prefer? Poor Syrian immigrants (not unskilled, uneducated) who will put every last cent they make into rent and food and necessities — or super wealthy international monied class that would pump real estate more than it has already. Give your head a shake.

Your post doesn’t even rise to the level of racism. It’s motivated more by blinkered stupidity.
————————-

You’ve entirely missed the point. If these Syrians can’t support themselves, who do you think will? Do you expect a couple of minimum wage jobs to make ends meet for a family these days?

What happens to folks who bust their ass working 2-3 jobs but still can’t pay their bills?

The sponsored family out my way has 11 kids.

What’s minimum wage again?

#57 Ken on 12.04.15 at 8:43 pm

JSS where do you think the dividend increase came from? It came from the household debt burdened sheep.

#58 nonplused on 12.04.15 at 8:44 pm

That hippo looks horny. I hope that guy can run.

This posting reminds me of my friend’s story. He and his partner split up, but not before she had signed up for a $55,000 bathroom renovation. The first thing he did afterwards is call the contractor and ask to be let out of the deal. The contractor agreed, but wanted $7,000 for a break fee and to pay for the cabinets which were already built. My friend agreed. And the house is only 8 years old.

The key lesson is this: “Never throw good money after bad”.

Sometimes you have to cut your losses where they are at, even if it seems to be most of your money. This is especially true of highly leveraged speculations like real estate. The industry has become very good at morphing the risk into long term insured mortgages but the result is the same: You can loose your shirt if you have to sell. They have just made all kinds of incentives for you to keep paying, but you are still loosing your shirt.

My friend is fortunately in the position where he can shrug off a $7000 loss. But even if he couldn’t and it was painful, would it have been a better idea to spend $55,000 on nothing?

I recently got hit by the “driveway sealing” scam. The guy told me it would be so much a square foot but I asked him for a maximum because I’d never thought about how many square feet I had. He said $2000 max, so I said go ahead. When they were done, they made an elaborate show of measuring the driveway and said “it’s $5,400”. An argument ensued as you might expect, but eventually I paid $3000 just to get rid of these guys. I got robbed, but $1000 seemed better than a physical confrontation with 3 big scam artists. By the way they were all British.

Worse I learned later that sealing your driveway is a big waste of money and I should have let it rot. The proper way to fix it is just let it go (which can take 20 years) and when it gets too bad have it properly tarred and a 1 inch lift put down. Lesson learned.

Pretty much everything is a scam folks and townhouses are no different. And Sub-Zero fridges too. Sure they last a long time but you can buy 5 from another brand for the same price.

And Kubota tractors too. Sure, the one I got with the house is nice. It has many features not found on a Club Cadet including shaft drive, 4 wheel drive, power steering, hydraulic deck lift, etc. But it also costs $8000 new versus less than $2000 for the Club and they both mow the lawn the same. Plus all those extra features break just as often and are not cheap to fix. It’s just like a car, the more features, the more you spend on repairs.

#59 IHCTD9 on 12.04.15 at 8:47 pm

#28 Gerard Trump on 12.04.15 at 7:42 pm
DELETED
————

Buddy, looks like you need to tone it down a bit or we’re never going to hear anything you’re trying to say.

#60 paul on 12.04.15 at 8:50 pm

#38 Gulf Breeze on 12.04.15 at 8:08 pm

#16 Goldie,

And what would you prefer? Poor Syrian immigrants (not unskilled, uneducated) who will put every last cent they make into rent and food and necessities — or super wealthy international monied class that would pump real estate more than it has already. Give your head a shake.

Your post doesn’t even rise to the level of racism. It’s motivated more by blinkered stupidit
———————————————————-
Who is the stupid one, maybe she wants some skilled immigration. Why does it have to poor unskilled or super wealthy. Like Garth says balance is everything.

#61 IHCTD9 on 12.04.15 at 8:54 pm

#54 Leo Trollstoy on 12.04.15 at 8:36 pm
#21 zee on 12.04.15 at 7:21 pm

History will paint the Libs with the brush of Canada’s economic collapse.

Ditto for the NDP and Alberta.

That’s just how it’s gonna be.
—————-

And if both keep walking the path they’re on, deservedly so.

T2 is just out of the gate, and the apologists are already out in full force.

#62 Ray Skunk on 12.04.15 at 8:56 pm

lol.

As long as I’m not forced to bail out idiots like this, let the slaughter begin.

#63 Panhead on 12.04.15 at 8:56 pm

From the trenches in 604land…
Took the skytrain into downtown Van today to see the xmas tree display and spent the rest of the day just walking around with my better half. Went into Nordstroms for a laugh and was gobsmacked. A pair of PLASTIC (not even rubber) designer boots were $465.00. Saw very few customers in there but lot’s of sales people just hanging around. No one drinking in the lounge. Walked a few blocks to Hastings Street and the usual war zone. Oh what a difference a few blocks makes out here… it’s like two completely different worlds. Vat a place …

#64 Dirt Dog on 12.04.15 at 8:57 pm

Over 32 yrs in “the business” two different colleagues have purchased pre-sale condos for their kids. Completion dates of 2017/18. Unreal, I just keep quiet.
Maybe one of my boys will be making the “sole” stink offer to them in a couple of years.

#65 joblo on 12.04.15 at 8:59 pm

Kanada is SO OVER!

#66 Mark on 12.04.15 at 9:01 pm

“This has only happened once before (late 1980s – early 1990s) after which the TSX outperformed in snap back fashion. This could happen again. Guess what else happened in the early 1990s when the TSX took off? A housing correction.”

Of course. The inverse correlation between the TSX and Canada’s housing market is very well known. Given the extremities of the housing market relative to the stock market, the rally that we are likely to experience in the future has a pretty good chance of eclipsing what was seen in the 1990s. Especially if the deeply cyclical components of the TSX, particularly the gold miners, start to contribute on account of global macroeconomic factors.

I can’t seem to find the chart on the web anymore, but Pacifica Partners Capital had a graph plotting the TSX versus the housing indexes for the various cities in Canada. The ratio was very clearly cyclical with a downwards long-term trajectory (in favour of TSX) but curiously a surge of such a significant magnitude over the past 15 years (except 2009) that the reversion is likely to be especially severe.

Intuitively this makes sense given how overvalued Canadian housing is relative to incomes, rents, etc., while the TSX trades at considerably below average long-term ratios of P/E, P/B, with many components at a fraction of their long-term depreciated replacement cost (an example I used to often cite was that of the CP Railway having a market cap less similar to the replacement cost of a mere single tunnel in BC — a situation which has improved under Hunter Harrison, but still is a mere fraction of the value of such irreplaceable infrastructure assets!).

#67 Mark on 12.04.15 at 9:05 pm

“History will paint the Libs with the brush of Canada’s economic collapse.”

Really Troll? Ever heard the saying, “Tory times are hard times”? What about the economically disastrous times of R. B. Bennett? Ever heard the phrase “Bennett Buggy”?

Heck, if you just remember back to the early 1990s, you’ll probably remember the economy getting very bad under the Tories. They went down to probably the most severe defeat ever suffered by a sitting Canadian government under Kim Campbell. I don’t think any party has a monopoly of presiding over bad times, but its how they deal with them that often characterizes people’s memories and their re-election chances.

#68 Popeye The Sailor Man on 12.04.15 at 9:07 pm

#52 Herf on 12.04.15 at 8:32 pm; WTF!

At Least she owns up to errors, does not try to blame hubby.

Peter; keep the Wife, follow Garths advice, pay off debt and save for a proper down payment.

The blessing might be, just as your credit is back on track the housing market maybe at or near the bottom.

The House you want will be even cheaper and with a bigger down payment mortgage maybe half.

Good luck Terri and Peter.

#69 Daisy Mae on 12.04.15 at 9:11 pm

“Kiss your deposit goodbye, file your papers and walk.”

******************

This is their only option….and they should consider themselves lucky.

#70 Popeye The Sailor Man on 12.04.15 at 9:17 pm

We had a buyer in 2005 back out of a deal, the Realtor advised us to let it go because it will leave us with the house off the market while we litigate.

Maybe you can tell the developer to keep the deposit and offer another 2-5K to tear up the contract so HE can move forward and sell to a another Greater fool. Or fight with you tie up the property and force you into Bankruptcy and still have to sell it. He would be 15K ahead and have that to reduce his costs and be competitive with other new builds.

Just a thought!

#71 When will they raise rates? on 12.04.15 at 9:19 pm

#232 Willy2 on 12.04.15 at 1:39 pm

– Nope. I still put my money on “No rate hike”. Because the US 3 month T-bill rate is still (way) below 0.25%.
————————————-

I am looking at the same chart, and coming to the exact opposite conclusion.

It’s spiked up from up from zero a month ago to 0.2% today, and rising.

It’s screaming rate hike.

#72 Brian on 12.04.15 at 9:21 pm

Hold on a minute. YVR sfh are up 22% yoy? Are you freakin kidding me?

With gains like that you know it’s not just crazy locals driving this market. Undeniably HAM in my opinion.

I think even Garth is coming around on this :)

#73 Popeye The Sailor Man on 12.04.15 at 9:21 pm

My first wife and I bought in Victoria at the condo peak in 93 and spent the next 7 years losing money and being under water the whole time. It was a factor in the divorce in 2000. I would not wish this hell on anyone felt like we were sinking the whole time no mater how much we paid off.

#74 Brian Ripley on 12.04.15 at 9:22 pm

“…I’ll wager more people will be waking up in a cold sweat over a real estate decision.” Garth

On my 6 City Chart: http://www.chpc.biz/6-canadian-metros.html

… the combined average price of a Vancouver, Calgary Toronto condo is currently 29% (no typo) more expensive than a median priced Montreal SFD. It’s the first time that metric on this chart has hit that number.

That’s awesome bull power. Sellers must be very happy.

#75 Interstellar Old Yeller on 12.04.15 at 9:26 pm

Terrie and Peter, pretty soon lots of people will be paying much more than $13k to learn the lesson you have just learned. Chalk it up to the cost of education and make sure you are at least $13k’s worth smarter than you were before you made the deposit.

And before you blame your wife for everything, Peter, remember: you picked her. Marriage means sharing everything, even the fallout from crappy financial decisions. Work on making wiser choices, together.

#76 Sharon on 12.04.15 at 9:27 pm

#38 Gulf Breeze

Look up the information and stats… the truth behind
what is actually taking place from the effects of
displaced or migrant people being placed in a country…

One of the most controversial questions in the discussion of both legal and illegal immigrants has been around their consumption of welfare. A recent independently verified report from the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) has answered that question – and the results are incredibly shocking.

The report by Dr. Steven Camarota titled “Welfare Use by Immigrant and Native Households” which analyzed welfare usage using the Census Bureau’s Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) data.

#77 The predicament | Realties.ca on 12.04.15 at 9:37 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/12/04/the-predicament/ […]

#78 Trojan House on 12.04.15 at 9:39 pm

Don’t know if anyone suggested this already, but they could do an assignment of contract sale.

#79 Just sayin' on 12.04.15 at 9:44 pm

DELETED

#80 Mean Gene on 12.04.15 at 9:45 pm

The Real Estate kool-aid isn’t tasting as good as advertised.

#81 For those about to flop... on 12.04.15 at 9:55 pm

Message for “Not tonight honey”.
A couple of weeks ago we wrote each other a couple of times and I noticed ever since you copied my separation line.
Now when I see your posts I have to double check that it’s not mine.
I don’t own your keyboard so tap away my little friend,here’s some more for you.
///////////////////////////////////////////////

///////////////////////////////////////////////
Cool huh!

#82 Herb on 12.04.15 at 9:55 pm

#61 IHCD9 –

” T2 is just out of the gate, and the apologists are already out in full force.”

Maybe because the losers were slathering on the tar and feathers while he was still in the gate.

#83 GBU-28 on 12.04.15 at 9:57 pm

Mark: “The guy certainly doesn’t mince words over the quality of CMHC’s ‘data collection’ and the propaganda it passes off as ‘fact’ on its website.”

The thing I object to is the recency bias of everything the CMHC says. They have this fancy formula/model, but those models are only as good as the data fed to them. When the economy is booming, house prices rise largely because credit is easy to get. Mortgage defaults are rare and have to do with marriage breakdowns, health events and things like plant shutdowns in one-industry towns.

All these models today are fed by data that come from a benign economic environment. But where I am, house prices seem to be static and any kind of inventory over $500k stays on the market for a year (more, in the case of the $1MM plus houses). When credit tightens further, the ability of all people to make monthly payments or assume huge mortgages is going to degrade simultaneously.

#84 Gregor Samsa on 12.04.15 at 9:58 pm

The positive spin on today’s numbers in the Calgary media was that all the construction jobs were proof of how diversified and robust the economy is. Not sure how brain dead you need to be to believe that…

The reality is that all this construction was planned in the boom and it’s too late now to stop it. When the towers are finished, so is construction and you can flush the rest of the economy with it.

Oil will be low for years, if not forever. Smart money should plan accordingly.

#85 Freedom First on 12.04.15 at 10:00 pm

#52 Herf

My comment is #12.

I had a feeling someone would expand on what I said. Well done Herf.

I think maybe Peter is whipped. Not unusual. It’s great to be me.

#86 Washed Up Lawyer on 12.04.15 at 10:04 pm

The bloom is off the wild rose.

Northern Gateway is bogged down in the muskeg just south of the flophouse I rent a room in here in Ft. McM.

A bunch of pesky Nebraskan ranchers and the Pres. (and his BIG OIL PALS) cratered Keystone XL and now:

Kinder Morgan shares are down 29.5% over the last week (Source: G&M “Stars and Dogs”).

So Trans-Mountain Pipeline has dimming and dour prospects.

But, on the upside, Burnaby will retain its pristine beauty.

#87 Karl hungus on 12.04.15 at 10:06 pm

Did you expect a gift pack? — Garth

Sure didn’t, but people should be aware of the situation they are getting themselves into

#88 not 1st on 12.04.15 at 10:06 pm

You are not stuck with that condo. The first downpayment is gone but dont throw another one in there. Walk on the development and if they try to sue you for it, counter sue for fraudulent marketing activities.

They will never get money from a stone. Thats the great thing about our courts – no recourse or enforcement, just a useless paper judgement. Declare bankruptcy if you must. In a few years the banks will be happy to lend to you again.

#89 Patrick on 12.04.15 at 10:15 pm

#34 Gulf Breeze on 12.04.15 at 8:01 pm
#7 B.C. Guy,
My advice? When older wealthier morons give you the gears, don’t waste word or breath on them. Just turn your back and walk away. They are beneath contempt.
______________________________

lol Not an old, wealthy moron. I wish. Under 30 and poor. Not giving him the gears either, I struggle with the same problems. Just trying to help a brother out.

I think we (millennials) need to learn to hustle. It’s a lost art. My grandparents eeked out a living doing whatever they could. Not sure their kids had to but their grandkids (us) sure do. I’m doing it right now. It’s not glamorous and there are no promises, guarantees or pensions. But to quote one of Garth’s favourite rappers: “Get rich or die tryin”

#90 Smoking Man on 12.04.15 at 10:24 pm

The Horror. That pic….

Dude looks a bit like me…. Sherlie Valentine, is that your vision of a dream guy, if so 1-555 555-5555.

God damn, is that hippo the Liberal party coming to get me after all the scathing posts I’ve written on Wynn’s Twitter account..

#91 Ret on 12.04.15 at 10:24 pm

#40
$8000 property taxes on a large condo unit worth almost $3M. Deal!

Even the condo fee of $719 doesn’t seem too bad unless the amenities are shared with thousands of the unwashed living in 400sf units below the “Sub Penthouse.”

$4000 property taxes for a 1946, 1580sf house in Hamilton. Total rip off.

#92 Millmech on 12.04.15 at 10:29 pm

It costs $470,000 after tax dollars($750,000 gross),before interest and property taxes,so probably will cost $1,500,000 to pay it off over the life of the mortgage in gross wages.Its amazing that people never run the whole numbers just the monthly payments.My advice take the hit and walk away,hopefully lesson learned.

#93 45north on 12.04.15 at 10:38 pm

BC Guy: You 1%ers will then say, “well, get off your ass and be an entrepreneur, create a business”. Well, I did actually. But there are a couple of dozen people competing with me in a very tight market. Nobody’s making a profit. I’m also competing against a big box US chain that hires desperate staff at minimum wage and undercuts me.

I’d say that right now the people who succeed are tough. They have the backing of their family and they work hard.

I’d also say that entrepreneurs have a stubborn side which may not be helping you. I mean don’t be too stubborn.

#94 Cici on 12.04.15 at 10:40 pm

#11 JSS

Gee, I dunno…maybe they don’t want you and everyone else to panic sell your banks stocks if things start heading downwards? When things start crapping out, higher dividends usually do slow the rush for the exits…

#95 Retired Boomer WI on 12.04.15 at 10:48 pm

Terrie & Peter made an unwise buy. Perhaps in HASTE.

I have noticed many young, and a lot not young, making LARGE purchases, without using the concept of “sleeping on it.”

For us, this has kept us from unwise impulse purchases, like a car, furniture etc. Whenever we contemplate spending say $500 or more, we purposely take the time between ourselves, to affirm the purchase, and return the next day, or so, or often decide ‘NO’ to the purchase.

Saves heartache, and we are in agreement on the decision. If the price is good “today” it will indeed be good tomorrow. We do NOT let ourselves be pressured by what others are doing, by salesman, the glare of the showroom etc.

The HIGHER the purchase price, the more weary we are to be “hurried” along the buying trail. Sorry, it IS my money and I’ll be the ultimate arbiter of when the sale is to be made.

In your case Terry & Peter, I would explain nicely your decision, and accept the loss of your current down payment. Then I would be dam sure my debts get paid, my savings replenished, and be in a position to buy, or relocate as your lives might dictate over the next few years. A hard -but good- lesson here.
Contracts are a bitch!! Even marriage contracts.

#96 Retired Boomer WI on 12.04.15 at 10:52 pm

By the way, yesterdays bottom fishing in the market proved a good move. Even before yesterdays close I was in the black, and today posted solid gains.

Only leaker in the portfolio now is a piddly 150 shares of POT which may well be heading toward ZERO based on competition. Can Canada compete anymore is a question.

#97 observer on 12.04.15 at 10:52 pm

For heavens sake people

You go and borrow like hell and now realize the real estate snake oil salemen have been blowing wind up you butt. Now you want a quick out.

Your done, they will take your deposit and everything else, leaving you at ground zero.

Its a new beginning enjoy.

#98 Shirley valentine on 12.04.15 at 10:52 pm

#90 Smoking Man on 12.04.15 at 10:24 pm
The Horror. That pic….

Dude looks a bit like me…. Sherlie Valentine, is that your vision of a dream guy, if so 1-555 555-5555.

God damn, is that hippo the Liberal party coming to get me after all the scathing posts I’ve written on Wynn’s Twitter account..
——-
As long as the plasma nozzle is at hippo level… we’re all good baby… You studly beast of a hippo sized man.. No pink shirts for you.

#99 Estrella on 12.04.15 at 10:52 pm

It would be nice one day to read a letter from a professional woman who was smart and had amassed a large sum of money in her investment savings account.

Is this too much to ask?

Please?

#100 Jeffrey of Saskatoon on 12.04.15 at 10:54 pm

I Lord over all Gremlins. Here in Gremlin-town.

#101 Mark on 12.04.15 at 11:02 pm

“The thing I object to is the recency bias of everything the CMHC says. They have this fancy formula/model, but those models are only as good as the data fed to them.”

If you listened to the Ross Kay interview, he almost implied (but perhaps didn’t explicitly spell it out) that the CMHC was basically being run for the benefit of the RE sell side, and that their public statements were motivated not by underlying facts, but rather, by the political ideology of the government in power. He goes on to claim that almost to the time that the new Liberal government came to power, there was a considerable change in the public statements of the CMHC.

I haven’t personally verified if any of Kay’s allegations are true as I’ve known for years that basically everything the CMHC says is self-serving, a most corrupt institution whose activities have made housing severely unaffordable for Canadians. However, if it is, it smacks of the same sort of behaviour the former government exhibited towards science that may have been unpopular with their oil and gas industry benefactors.

I think there’s an increasing realization in Ottawa that the wheels are rapidly, after 2 years of stagnation and minor declines, coming off of the proverbial RE ‘bus’.

#102 Smoking Man on 12.04.15 at 11:10 pm

#98 Shirley valentine on 12.04.15 at 10:52 pm
#90 Smoking Man on 12.04.15 at 10:24 pm
The Horror. That pic….

Dude looks a bit like me…. Sherlie Valentine, is that your vision of a dream guy, if so 1-555 555-5555.

God damn, is that hippo the Liberal party coming to get me after all the scathing posts I’ve written on Wynn’s Twitter account..
——-
As long as the plasma nozzle is at hippo level… we’re all good baby… You studly beast of a hippo sized man.. No pink shirts for you.
………..

I’m Blushing.

Gartho, we not allowed to post while wearing tin foil Fadora’s

It’s exactly how it’s going to play out…Kiss bandit tonight..

Thermo Nukes is how this will end….

Play the players…..

#103 Frank on 12.04.15 at 11:22 pm

The downpayment changes are pretty much irrelevant. buyers of 1M homes in Toronto have 200k from selling their 700k home at a profit. Buyer of 700k home as 150 k from selling their 500k home at a profit, etc.

Are you serious? Even if the sales chain is exactly are you describe the bottom of the pile is the person selling their condo hoping to move up. They paid $250K and want to buy sell for $350K to move into something for $500K….oh wait. The buyers that would buy their entry level condo just go cut in half because they didn’t have the down payment. So they have to settle for $300K and can only offer 450K and so on up the chain.

#104 TurnerNation on 12.04.15 at 11:25 pm

What would you expect from this couple? When, any frank talk about world events belongs in an online. Conspiracy forum. In my office and what I hear around only subjects permissible are sports and vacations and real estate and latest electronic devices. And we all have 18 years of formal “education” (JK-12 and post secondary).

18 years in school to watch 30 hours of TV and Netflix and play games online.
The State keeps us as children.

#105 Scott Of BC on 12.04.15 at 11:27 pm

Can anyone explain this weeks drop in pref shares? Things were looking so good!
Thanks to Garth, I’ve maxed out my TFSA now working in wifeys. Diverse and haven’t been hammered too hard over the last few months.

#106 For those about to flop... on 12.04.15 at 11:29 pm

Well another Friday night and the Woman bashers are out again.
You guys crack me up…bashing a chic you don’t know or if she’s lucky never will.
Can’t we just agree there are greedy / dumb people everywhere regardless of race / age / gender.
People writing to Garth most of the time already know that they have made a mistake and are looking for an unbiased view,not gender bashing.
They have to live with their mistakes ,you guys have 5 minutes of hoeing the size twelves in.Hope your happy with yourselves.

#107 TurnerNation on 12.04.15 at 11:33 pm

Let’s face it….most middle class blue or white collar workers spend most of their day “screwing the pooch” so to speak. Unionistas especially. “Sick days”. Time spent online social media, useless meetings and conference calls. Inflated repair time estimates. Don’t worry someone else is paying for it
It’s why companies lay so many off and keep going.
Austerity now?

#108 slick on 12.04.15 at 11:36 pm

#69 Daisy Mae
how about selling their problem to someone else for say 60 cents on the dollar?
Buyers remorse here, for sure.
But perhaps a salvage jog to go with a plate of crow?
slick

#109 kommykim on 12.04.15 at 11:38 pm

RE:

#35 Dogman on 12.04.15 at 8:02 pm
I did not hear of it in the throne speech, so is their
still a chance we will make it to Jan 1 without a peep

After all the bloody Ads, at the 1:40 mark Dominic LeBlanc mentions the TFSA and basically says that they’ll be keeping their promise to roll it back to $5,500:
http://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2679934252

We’ll know more on Monday and they are voting on it on Wednesday.

#110 RayofLight on 12.04.15 at 11:40 pm

More people are killed by Hippos in Africa than any other animal. If you get between a Hippo Mamma and her pups, she does not negotiate.

#111 Not tonight honey on 12.04.15 at 11:41 pm

#81 For those about to flop… on 12.04.15 at 9:55 pm
Message for “Not tonight honey”.
A couple of weeks ago we wrote each other a couple of times and I noticed ever since you copied my separation line.
Now when I see your posts I have to double check that it’s not mine.
I don’t own your keyboard so tap away my little friend,here’s some more for you.
///////////////////////////////////////////////

///////////////////////////////////////////////
Cool huh!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Better? Suggestions….?

Sorry For Those About to Flop, you’re right, I likely copied /// as a discriminative stimulus to elicit attention (a work habit, oops). I shall be more mindful in the future!
Happy weekend :-)

#112 W on 12.04.15 at 11:47 pm

Haven’t heard of any mention of TFSA changes in throne speech today. Hopefully we get atleast one more year of $10,000 contribution room.

#113 Cici on 12.04.15 at 11:47 pm

For all you 1%ers out there who are swimming in cash and horny for a place of your own, now’s your chance to get in on a super sweet deal of a property in the West End (baking sheet not included):

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-buzz/vancouver-gingerbread-home-is-being-sold-for-45-180913560.html

#114 Smoking Man on 12.04.15 at 11:52 pm

To bad millennials never had this music growing up.

“Carry On Wayward Son”

Carry on my wayward son
There’ll be peace when you are done
Lay your weary head to rest
Don’t you cry no more

Ah

Once I rose above the noise and confusion
Just to get a glimpse beyond this illusion
I was soaring ever higher, but I flew too high

Though my eyes could see I still was a blind man
Though my mind could think I still was a mad man
I hear the voices when I’m dreaming,
I can hear them say

Carry on my wayward son,
There’ll be peace when you are done
Lay your weary head to rest
Don’t you cry no more

Masquerading as a man with a reason
My charade is the event of the season
And if I claim to be a wise man,
Well, it surely means that I don’t know

On a stormy sea of moving emotion
Tossed about, I’m like a ship on the ocean
I set a course for winds of fortune,
But I hear the voices say

Carry on my wayward son
There’ll be peace when you are done
Lay your weary head to rest
Don’t you cry no more no!

Carry on,
You will always remember
Carry on,
Nothing equals the splendor
Now your life’s no longer empty
Surely heaven waits for you

Carry on my wayward son
There’ll be peace when you are done
Lay your weary head to rest
Don’t you cry,
Don’t you cry no more,

No more!

#115 For those about to flop... on 12.04.15 at 11:52 pm

#111 Not tonight honey on 12.04.15 at 11:41 pm
#81 For those about to flop… on 12.04.15 at 9:55 pm
Message for “Not tonight honey”.
A couple of weeks ago we wrote each other a couple of times and I noticed ever since you copied my separation line.
Now when I see your posts I have to double check that it’s not mine.
I don’t own your keyboard so tap away my little friend,here’s some more for you.
///////////////////////////////////////////////

///////////////////////////////////////////////
Cool huh!

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Better? Suggestions….?

Sorry For Those About to Flop, you’re right, I likely copied /// as a discriminative stimulus to elicit attention (a work habit, oops). I shall be more mindful in the future!
Happy weekend :-)

//////////////////////////////////////////////
Ha! I’m glad you took it in good spirit!
Use whatever keys you want ,I chose that one to make my posts different .Now there are two of us,I can live with that.
What about this one though?

===================================
I like it!

#116 Tony on 12.05.15 at 12:27 am

Re: #84 Gregor Samsa on 12.04.15 at 9:58 pm

I’ll be buying oil in earnest January 2017 when Obama is to leave office. I say he’s behind most of the drop and after that date I’ll prove myself correct.

#117 Jeff B on 12.05.15 at 12:28 am

Re: #10 (Yvr screwed): “In 6 months time I will be the one laughing.”

It doesn’t usually work that way. Usually the butt of the joke (you) has been quietly put at the top of the “people to downsize when the word comes” list. Advice: (1) Do not laugh in 6 months, and hope the person in charge of making up the list is a forgetful slacker, and (2) stop being correct/insightful in the workplace, it rarely ends well.

#118 Leo Trollstoy on 12.05.15 at 12:53 am

$470k purchase.

Already sunk $13k.

Another $20k due.

Owe $33k student loan.

Recently wed.

Forever screwed.

#119 Ontheledge on 12.05.15 at 1:01 am

I bought and sold 3 houses in the east end of Toronto between 2001 and 2015. I spent a lot of evenings and weekends painstakingly renovating each one with my own hands and calling in trades when necessary. All the while slogging it out on Bay St (5 of those years in your shop in management on the 54th) and seeing the birth of two kids. The entire time I was skating on a sea of debt and expenses, betting on the RE market. I lost a very lucrative Bay St. job (not RJL) in 2014 and in the early part of this year decided to pull the trigger on my Toronto RE…I could feel the wave cresting. We listed our house in the Beaches in February (apparently the best month to sell) and put on a asking price to draw maximum interest. Over 4 days we had just over 100 private showings that drew 11 offers, selling for 1.2M, 250k over asking. The buyers? A couple of Millennials selling their condo in Liberty Village. Oops. I moved out of the city, to Guelph into a big old century home that I paid cash for (probably too much) with some to spare and a HELOC lined up for when the market takes it’s next dive. Enough diarizing. Here’s another thing that should be added to your list that the ‘house horny’ rarely consider…mortgage payments are only a part of the cost of home ownership. Taxes, insurance, heat, hydro (increasing exponentially), Water (no longer an after thought)…and maintenance…the most over looked expense when buying an old house, ask anyone who’s had to waterproof a foundation or put in new sewage drains. I was naive to all this, but I worked hard and got lucky. I honestly feel badly for all the newbies being drawn into this mess. This won’t end well, even for the greedy, entitled baby boomers who post on your pathetic blog with their equally pathetic and thinly veiled schadenfreude.

#120 Longterms on 12.05.15 at 2:01 am

#8 BC Guy on 12.04.15 at 6:59 pm

Keep looking for that land mate, there is a better way. Lots of pretty cheap land on the [right] Gulf Islands [i.e. not Salt Spring] and the longest gowing season in Canada. We are homesteading right now, 1/3 acre organic garden with room to expand the growing area to 2 acres on 5.5 acres (cost $150K), plenty of trees for lumber and firewood and foraging and wildcrafting and other income sources. Building a custom 1700 sf high performance house for $95k. When all is said and done our carrying costs will be about $750 a month. All the top[ quality food we can eat with extra to trade and sell. Limitless scope for creativity and to set-up small businesses, do the work you want and pursue interests. Life is rich, inexpensive and very free from The Man. The key is to stop chasing the carrot. Keep at it.

#121 Nagraj on 12.05.15 at 2:10 am

“Ontario owes more money than God.”

Friday night is bowling night and the only thing God owes is about thirty bucks on his bar tab.
He always has one too many which explains the human race which he made on a Saturday when he was hung over. Which is why so many people look like bowling pins.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Almost all hippopotamus parents send their little hippopotamuses to ballet school. (Which is why they can run so fast.)
Hippopotamuses are very temperamental. They can bite thru a mouthy crocodile as if it were a pretzel stick. They are artistically sensitive.
In the photo, the hippo thought the nudist beachcomber was just too ugly to be allowed to live.
Many hippopotamuses were bad ballet dancers in their previous lives. But you can see an excellent ballet performance by a hippopotamus in the Disney movie “Fantasia”.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

“Fools surround you.”

Perhaps the WUP can confirm this, I believe that in Canada “moron” is legally defined in terms of IQ points, and it’s a prosecutable offence in this country to have sex with a moron.

#122 Cader idris on 12.05.15 at 2:25 am

Canada is special Aren’t we?

#123 Leo Trollstoy on 12.05.15 at 2:49 am

Vancouver real estate prices are insane. Rising across the sales mix. Crazy. Unsustainable.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/vancouver+housing+prices+high+they/11566552/story.html

#124 Leo Trollstoy on 12.05.15 at 2:51 am

Bigger graph of Vancouver real estate prices.

https://www.scribd.com/doc/292167384/Housing

#125 John in van on 12.05.15 at 2:56 am

Why would all this affect vancouver house price?.. People buying house here don’t work or really need a mortgage… It will continue go up up up… 10 mil for a vancouver special in a couple year.

And by the way, the fed will not raise rates because they can’t

#126 jane 24 on 12.05.15 at 4:18 am

Terri the answer is to walk as you have no other assets to lose. Declare bankruptcy. You truly cannot get blood from a stone. Throwing good money after bad never never works. You just sink faster. If friends pity you then just shug it off. You have to know when to fold in life.

So your credit rating is shit for 5 years, who cares. You are young enough to recover plus paying $1000 a month
for rental shelter with your incomes is peanuts.

The key is not to let it destroy a young marriage.

In 2025 you will look back on the period of your life from a much better place.

#127 LowRent of Arabia on 12.05.15 at 4:35 am

Not a big fan of marijuana myself but I think if you are unemployed, can’t make the mortgage payment and are going through bankruptcy proceedings I can see that marijuana might have some appeal.

I think Selfie is on the right track by legalizing it. Maybe he could reduce taxes on beer if he really cares about the Middle Class.

Rise up this mornin’,
Smile with the risin’ sun,
Three little birds
Pitch by my doorstep
Singin’ sweet songs
Of melodies pure and true,
Sayin’, (“This is my message to you-ou-ou: “)

Singin’: “Don’t worry ’bout a thing,
‘Cause every little thing gonna be all right.”
Singin’: “Don’t worry (don’t worry) ’bout a thing,
‘Cause every little thing gonna be all right! ”

Yas Mon It is the Bob Marley.

#128 LowRent of Arabia on 12.05.15 at 4:43 am

#99 Estrella -It would be nice one day to read a letter from a professional woman who was smart and had amassed a large sum of money in her investment savings account.

Is this too much to ask?

Please?
—————————–

Ah yeah, women like that don’t hang out here in steerage class of this blog. Because

“It’s 2015”

#129 Up they go... on 12.05.15 at 5:18 am

#6 Gray Man

Google “US Jobs Report”.

#130 LowRent of Arabia on 12.05.15 at 5:28 am

http://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/bankrupt-calgary-contractor-facing-180-charges-under-fair-trading-act

Can you say ‘douche bag’?

#131 Go to Europe instead... on 12.05.15 at 5:29 am

#20 Patrick

Move to Europe if you have a private pension on top of CPP/OAS. I live in Italy, healthcare free, drugs free except for a small €3.50 dispensing fee each time (includes things like hay fever pills free as well) and cost of living lower than YVR so on a pension you do very well.

I net at least €1700 per month (pension only, excludes investment income), most Italian pensioners gross €1400 per month and live well from what I see and hear from my relatives here.

Civilization has it privileges (and ISIS can strike anywhere, not just in the EU).

In the Developed world you take your chances with insurrection, kidnappings and the list goes on…and note the key word:

developing

There are reasons why they call those countries that.

Now if only FastWeb can boost my bandwidth so I can stream 4K from Netflix.

#132 Rock Paper guy... on 12.05.15 at 5:37 am

#25 RoCK BEATS PAPER

1. Used to do M&A for GE HQ for years and we (and the rest of the industry) forecasted to 3 years out and have you ever heard of: optimistic, pessimistic and most likely scenario modeling?

6. Shift all of the risk to the banks with no mortgage insurance. Kill off the only part of the economy that is doing well…great idea. Few if any will be able to afford to buy your home or that of others especially in YVR and 416, if you have one – let alone anyone qualifying for a mortgage with no CMHC.

As for the rest, use facts not conjecture.

#133 Ronaldo...dividend...really on 12.05.15 at 5:41 am

#44 Ronaldo

To shore up their share price. 2016 bank forecasts all bad. Not a genius to know that much.

#134 Ralph Cramdown on 12.05.15 at 5:57 am

#110 RayofLight —
More people are killed by Hippos in Africa than any other animal.”

I’m going to come right out and guess (without even googling it or asking my phone) that more people in Africa are killed by mosquitoes than any other animal.

#135 Mark on 12.05.15 at 6:24 am

“Tru is making a wise thing by increasing the downpayments. A really bold move would be to carefully reinsure, privatize the CMHC. Would OTPP or OMERS buy some risk? Should have been done years ago.”

No, the CMHC can only really exist, in its present form, with the backstop of the Government of Canada. “Privatizing” it (or even the threat of such) would instantly precipitate a series of credit downgrades of the Canadian banking system, and likely trigger a complete cessation of new lending into the marketplace which would crash the RE market to all-cash valuations. Basically a Canadian form of deflationary credit crisis just as severe as seen in the United States circa 2008/2009.

In fact, if you look at the US crisis circa 2008/2009, the real lynchpin was not subprime lending, nor mortgage fraud. It was simply market confidence in the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac system of mortgage guarantees. And the status of the US governments’ “implicit backstop” of Fannie/Freddie obligations. The bottom of the “credit crisis”, and that of the stock market in 2009 was almost to the day that Congress passed into law provisions to provide for an explicit backstop of Fannie/Freddie debt.

So, in a nutshell, no, there is no way to get rid of the federal government’s exposure to the CMHC. There is no upside to the CMHC that a purchaser could achieve at this point given that CMHC premiums cannot be increased retroactively. Premiums collected in the past are probably and obviously far too low to cover the systemic risk that the collapse of a housing bubble poses to the economy.

IMHO, when everything is said and done, the few tens of billions the GoC has collected from the CMHC over the years and extracted into general revenue, will cost at least $100-$200B in bailouts (ie: CMHC’s probable capital deficiency) if not more. This is ultimately value that will be extracted from Canadian taxpayers. But ironically probably not those in the RE industry as the severe overcapacity thus induced in the RE sector is very likely to suppress net earnings in the sector for a generation.

The real losers, IMHO, of the RE bust and the CMHC, will be those in the sell side of the industry. CMHC was an okay program when it was relatively small, but everyone involved simply got way too greedy. The long-term winners will be, of course, those who bought countercyclical investments “on the cheap” while the masses were herded into chasing the RE bubble.

#136 LowRent of Arabia on 12.05.15 at 6:37 am

Garth, I believe the angry mob was asking for more hot girls and less dogs.

I don’t think Smoking Man naked taking on a Hippo quite cuts it.

Can we go back to dogs then if you can’t adjust your search engine off of Safe Filter settings?

#137 Nimoucha on 12.05.15 at 8:20 am

> #20 Derek R on 12.03.15 at 7:23 pm
> The GarthFAQ

I really appreciate your updated GarthFAQ, as well as the list of his posts with a brief summary for 2014. Please keep posting it from time to time. Are you planning to update it for 2015?
Thank you!

#138 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.15 at 9:16 am

@#119 Ontheledge
“This won’t end well, even for the greedy, entitled baby boomers who post on your pathetic blog with their equally pathetic and thinly veiled schadenfreude.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Well it aint just baby boomers that are greedy, entitled and pathetic. If the people that bought your house are any indication…….

#139 Ronaldo on 12.05.15 at 9:19 am

#133 Ronaldo…dividend…really on 12.05.15 at 5:41 am
#44 Ronaldo

”To shore up their share price. 2016 bank forecasts all bad. Not a genius to know that much.”

Tell that to JSS, he was the one asking, whoever you are.

#140 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.15 at 9:22 am

@#99 Estrella
“It would be nice one day to read a letter from a professional woman who was smart and had amassed a large sum of money in her investment savings account……”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Tiger Woods ex-wife is too busy building her house to post here.

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=8&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjZ7r6B6MTJAhWyjIMKHShgAaoQFgg0MAc&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.therichest.com%2Fcelebnetworth%2Fceleb%2Fmodel%2Felin-nordegren-net-worth%2F&usg=AFQjCNGDpeOa-aJax4CAH_ra90qPnAFUwQ&sig2=6zRIfAl9oCukiCi7uIoQKA&bvm=bv.108538919,d.amc

#141 Smoking Man on 12.05.15 at 9:24 am

This entrire climate change feasco explained in on artical.

The WWF behind it, wynne and Justin’s back door man Mr Butt.

They will force us all to buy carbon credits.

It all makes perfect sence now.

Protection racket taken from the Mafia play book.
Time to open up a carbon credit shop in long branch.
Ill make them out of thin air.

http://www.davidsuzuki.org/issues/climate-change/science/climate-change-basics/carbon-offsets/?gclid=CjwKEAiAs4qzBRD4l-2w7qOoqEMSJABauikXiuk8D4fXdJncdjfui7Gl6T2cmUGJ8UDfkG3jAFWB4xoCzibw_wcB

#142 Negative Interest Rates on 12.05.15 at 9:31 am

Why Negative Interest Rates Are Becoming the New Normal

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/04/upshot/why-negative-interest-rates-are-becoming-the-new-normal.html?&moduleDetail=section-news-5&action=click&contentCollection=The%20Upshot&region=Footer&module=MoreInSection&version=WhatsNext&contentID=WhatsNext&pgtype=article

#143 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.05.15 at 9:32 am

@#59 IHCTD9
“#28 Gerard Trump on 12.04.15 at 7:42 pm
DELETED
————

Buddy, looks like you need to tone it down a bit or we’re never going to hear anything you’re trying to say.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Well if the real Trump is any indication…….perhaps thats a good thing.

#144 Ralph Cramdown on 12.05.15 at 9:37 am

#127 LowRent — “Not a big fan of marijuana myself but I think if you are unemployed, can’t make the mortgage payment and are going through bankruptcy proceedings I can see that marijuana might have some appeal.”

I think the canonical expression of that statement is “drugs will get you through times of no money better than money will get you through times of no drugs.”

#145 Hope & Change (Canada) on 12.05.15 at 9:42 am

#294 Hope & Ruin on 12.04.15 at 6:52 pm
#259 Hope & Change (Canada) on 12.04.15 at 3:37 pm
Actually, I’m sure most of them will do better than most Canadians over the next 20 years.

_______________________________________

Just reflect for a minute what somebody coming from that area of the world would think of the topics we discuss on this blog?

It is a sobering thought. Kind of gives some perspective. Refugees coming from a land where they could be killed, maimed, raped or starved any given day. To one where we bicker over who has a bigger pension.

I was on a business trip in Dubai a few weeks ago and reflecting on the same, with some people on my team that happen to live in India.

Yes, we are very shielded here for now. North Americans don’t realize that there are worse things that could happen than a housing/stock market/business cycle crash.

But believe, me. I do. My grand parents lost their entire life savings, not once, but twice, to the Russians. My parents had to abandon everything when they moved to Canada.

So yeah, good point. Not every crisis can be recovered from within our own lifetime. Your quality of life is more important than money at some point.

#146 ANON on 12.05.15 at 9:49 am

#136 LowRent of Arabia on 12.05.15 at 6:37 am

Garth, I believe the angry mob was asking for more hot girls and less dogs.

Ahh yes, the Good Ol’ Days

#147 Smoking Man on 12.05.15 at 10:13 am

Wow, so critical thinking makes you a radical extremist.

Young people who question Government or media may be extremists, officials tell parents

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/young-people-who-question-government-policy-or-the-media-may-be-extremists-officials-tell-parents-a6756086.html

#148 Millmech on 12.05.15 at 10:15 am

I can’t figure out how a couple with low expenses and a good income have so little savings.they should easily be able to bank 30% of their gross income and still have lots left over.With an income as large as this wouldn’t it be difficult to claim bankruptcy as they can easily afford the monthly payments(not sure how bankruptcy works).
Thanks.

#149 Woke To The Sounds Of Horking on 12.05.15 at 10:17 am

Garth and many of the posters here still don’t get it: Vancouver RE will never tank. And why would Garth get it? He lives in Toronto…

Van is the Singapore of Kanada. In fact, you can’t even consider it part of Kanada. A crash will never, ever happen in Vancouver. Once you get out into the world and see a bit of Asia (esp. dirty Asia) you realise why so many people want to flock to Vancouver and dump their cash there.

Do a bit of research on the population count of Asia, the gazillionaires in China. Then, when you realise that Van City could easily accommodate a population of around 25 million, it all starts to make sense.

As for anyone in Van who’s living below the 1% crowd, well, you’re f***ed.

Actually I know and understand YVR quite well. You’re all nuts. I am not forecasting a crash, but a decline – and that will be bad enough. — Garth

#150 liquidincalgary on 12.05.15 at 10:21 am

Bananasan on 12.04.15 at 7:54 pm

================================================

ass-clown

#151 Bytor the Snow Dog on 12.05.15 at 10:31 am

Hey Estrella-

Feel free to lead by example.

#152 bdy sktn on 12.05.15 at 11:03 am

#118 Leo Trollstoy on 12.05.15 at 12:53 am

$470k purchase.

Already sunk $13k.

Another $20k due
______________
Even if they lose the next 20k They will still be further ahead than if buying cpd.to 2 weeks ago

Kinder Morgan even worse.

RE with dirt only . Never a condo.

#153 The American on 12.05.15 at 11:24 am

#91: Ret, to an American, calling $8,000 a year in property taxes on a $3,000,000 property a “rip off” is a joke. That’s an absolute unheard of deal of the century in the U.S. Property taxes in the U.S. range from 1% to 4% per year of the value of the property. In your case, you can expect to pay $30,000/year on the low end to $120,000 on the higher end. It all depends on your local rates. As I’ve been saying for years, Canadians don’t pay a damn penny more in taxes than Americans. Canadians only think they do because of the way your tax system collects the dough.

#154 Broke Dick on 12.05.15 at 11:25 am

Just a thought Garth but I think the saying goes like this “you can attract more flies with honey than you can with vinegar”.
What I am trying to say is that trying to convince people to invest when everything you reference is going down the tubes will just make people hunker down and do nothing.
Easier to keep doing the same old in uncertain times rather than change.
I would think you would convert more to your way of thinking if you could make the argument that it is a good time to enter the markets. Unless of course you don’t think it’s a good time?

I actually don’t care what you do, and have no agenda other than truthful observation. The world is full of risk. My only message is to ensure there is balance in your life, which means both fixed and liquid assets. And a dog. — Garth

#155 For those about to flop... on 12.05.15 at 11:27 am

Snowboid,you got your ears on?
Thinking of coming down to Phoenix in a couple of weeks.
What do you think of the Metrocentre area, there is a good deal on the Radisson.
Thank you Garth for expanding your blog to now include travel!
Hey,I guess it’s better than conspiracy theories from the crazy gang.Your welcome!

#156 David on 12.05.15 at 11:28 am

Yikes, fourteen straight months of trade deficits? These folks must be in a real pickle then:
https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BPBLTT01USQ188S

#157 liquidincalgary on 12.05.15 at 11:34 am

IHCTD9 on 12.04.15 at 8:40 pm

#38 Gulf Breeze on 12.04.15 at 8:08 pm
#16 Goldie,

What happens to folks who bust their ass working 2-3 jobs but still can’t pay their bills?

The sponsored family out my way has 11 kids.

===============================================

remember the “boat people” coming in on our west coast?

often, they had little to no paperwork, all their assets (cash) in a shoe. some would buy their way into a family that was coming over anyway “just tell them i am another sister/brother”

or maybe that’s just anecdotal

#158 For those about to flop... on 12.05.15 at 11:35 am

Actually I know and understand YVR quite well. You’re all nuts. I am not forecasting a crash, but a decline – and that will be bad enough. — Garth
//////////////////////////////////////////////
I tolerate Vancouver , I live here because my wife’s family and friends are here.
I get out of here as often as possible and see it as a place to live not the centre of the universe.
Vancouver,Canada’s WARMEST winter spot ,with the COLDEST people in Canada.Brrrrrr!

#159 The American on 12.05.15 at 11:36 am

#91: Ret, to an American $8,000 a year in property taxes on a $3,000,000 property is an absolute deal in the U.S. Property taxes in the U.S. range from 1% to 4% per year of the value of the property. In your case, you can expect to pay $30,000/year on the low end to $120,000 on the higher end. It all depends on your local rates. As I’ve been saying for years, Canadians don’t pay more in taxes than Americans, especially when you consider your taxes are about 1/3 of what Americans pay on your most expensive asset, year in, year out. Canadians only believe they pay more because of the way your tax system collects the dough.

#160 TurnerNation on 12.05.15 at 11:41 am

Today’s layoff new. That is all.
In other news overseas war-making is going swimmingly. The enemy is weakening, we are winning. Buy war bonds against the Kaiser.


De Beers shuts Canada mine due to adverse market condition
Business Standard – 4 hours ago
Faced with adverse market condition, De Beers, one of the largest diamond miners in the world, has shut its Snap Lake mine in Canada with immediate effect.
De Beers shuts Snap Lake diamond mine, 434 jobs eliminated Toronto Sun
De Beers CEO on Snap Lake mine closure 15:17 CBC.ca

#161 young & foolish on 12.05.15 at 11:49 am

So much debt everywhere …. not a good sign for RE, and not good for equities either. Another flat year for our balanced and diversified coming up …

Pure, uninformed, speculation as far as financial assets are concerned. — Garth

#162 Daisy Mae on 12.05.15 at 12:09 pm

#73: “My first wife and I bought in Victoria at the condo peak in 93 and spent the next 7 years losing money and being under water the whole time. It was a factor in the divorce in 2000.”

************************

Yep. Ongoing money problems appear to be the #1 reason for divorce….unfortunately, we may be seeing quite a number of them going forward. Sad.

#163 IHCTD9 on 12.05.15 at 12:11 pm

#82 Herb on 12.04.15 at 9:55 pm
#61 IHCD9 –

” T2 is just out of the gate, and the apologists are already out in full force.”

Maybe because the losers were slathering on the tar and feathers while he was still in the gate.
___________________________________________

Hi Herb, I’d have to say that comment sounded a little apologetic..

Believe what you will, but we are all going to be losers as long as T2 keeps on like he is – 20 Billion dollar deficit by the end of 2016 seems assured. Revenue shrinkage very possible. Continued economic destruction guaranteed.

Oh, and don’t call me D9 – IHC never made them, and I wouldn’t touch a CAT with a 10 foot pole.

#164 Godth on 12.05.15 at 12:16 pm

Ralph Cramdown

Hey Ralph, check out this paranoid tin – foil hat:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/new-world-order-agenda-obamas-reckless-roadmap-to-world-war-iii/5492849

Look at his credentials, what a kook. Be sure to hit the third link too for some historical kookery as well.

#165 SWL1976 on 12.05.15 at 12:31 pm

#147 Smoking Man

Wow, so critical thinking makes you a radical extremist.

Young people who question Government or media may be extremists, officials tell parents

Perhaps Ralph can reeducate them

#160 TurnerNation

De Beers shuts Canada mine due to adverse market condition

I worked on constrution at Snap Lake and always wondered how long that place would last. When I left they were pumping liquid nitrogen into the melting perema frost to keep the lake water from flooding the mine. This mine was not a traditional open pit kimberlite pipe, but and undergroud slip that went under the lake. Lots of horror stories from the guys who worked underground with regards to working in a flooded mine.

Domed from the start really

I never worked directly for De Beers but one could just tell they were complete pricks to do business with. In Africa they hobbled their workers, in Canada they wish they could and are probably proud supporters of the TPP

Also #104 TurnerNation great post

#166 For those about to flop... on 12.05.15 at 12:37 pm

It’s probably getting into bubble territory ,but my U.S equity fund went up2.5% in one day ,I guess on the back of the positive jobs report.
Who knows what is going to happen but there is a good chance that my TFSA will getting some more of this fund in January no matter what Trudy and the Taxers decide to do with the limit.
The way it’s looking the U.S is the only game in town ,probably because they were force feed their medicine and are now on the way back up.
Looking to book a trip to 4/5 cities as long as there is sun and hotels are the most expensive since 2008/09.
Which is a good sign for the economy in my b- grade opinion .

#167 IHCTD9 on 12.05.15 at 12:46 pm

#155 liquidincalgary on 12.05.15 at 11:34 am
IHCTD9 on 12.04.15 at 8:40 pm

#38 Gulf Breeze on 12.04.15 at 8:08 pm
#16 Goldie,

What happens to folks who bust their ass working 2-3 jobs but still can’t pay their bills?

The sponsored family out my way has 11 kids.

===============================================

remember the “boat people” coming in on our west coast?

often, they had little to no paperwork, all their assets (cash) in a shoe. some would buy their way into a family that was coming over anyway “just tell them i am another sister/brother”

or maybe that’s just anecdotal
____________________________________________

Yes I do, worked with one for 20 years – he just retired at 70 years old. Great guy, hard worker. He was a machinist, great on a lathe. Came here with a wife and two kids.

He was put into the shop I worked at back then through a government program, and never looked back. Worked his ass off, and became indispensable, always made money. That same shop went bankrupt two times, the last time being in 2011. He was able to walk into the same place I was hired at and get a job without even an interview, or an actual job opening for that matter.

Those boat people came here a long time ago, might as well have been a different planet. We just don’t have the jobs like back then.

Many point to the success of the Boat People as a beacon of hope for the Syrians. Meanwhile we have foreign neurosurgeons driving cabs and PHD’s waiting tables.

Immigration in general has had the pedal to the metal since the boat people, we’re “jammed full” (just ask David Suzuki if you have any questions on that one). The Syrians will not have an easy go at it, this is pretty straight forward logic. I expect Billions flushed in the future as the Feds try to save face.

Bottom line IMHO, these folks will find it even harder to find meaningful employment that our own Millennials, harder than our new Degree holding Canadians, harder than our own recently unemployed blue collar Canadians. Ask folks in those 3 groups how the job market is – double the noted gloom, and that’s what the Syrians are looking at…

#168 bdy sktn on 12.05.15 at 12:46 pm

18 years in school to watch 30 hours of TV and Netflix and play games online.
The State keeps us as children
_______________
Last and only thing I’ve ever watched on Netflix was breaking bad a few years back.

If you leave your front porch light on the ‘state’ won’t bust in and put a gun to your head to make you play candy crush.

#169 Ole Doberman on 12.05.15 at 12:48 pm

#51 Caught In The Grip on 12.04.15 at 8:29 pm

David Rosenberg recently wrote an article for The Globe & Mail describing the TSX under performing the S&P 500 for the past 5 years. This has only happened once before (late 1980s – early 1990s) after which the TSX outperformed in snap back fashion. This could happen again. Guess what else happened in the early 1990s when the TSX took off? A housing correction.
———————————————————-
Exaclty, and why. In one word – capital flows.

Smart money getting out of depreciating real estate and going into another asset class, equities in this case. Bonds is the other alternative but not in a rising interest rate environment.

#170 Buystander on 12.05.15 at 12:52 pm

A boom always ends in a bust.

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/10/20/why-mainstream-economists-deny-housing-bubbles-until-after-they-implode-which-they-always-do/

#171 Bram on 12.05.15 at 1:00 pm

#124 Leo Trollstoy

That graph is plain wrong.
REBGV reported median detached prices as 3.1M west-van / 1.3M east-van.

The graph is attributed to vancouvermarket.ca, which judging from the glaring mistakes seem to be amateurs.

Here’s the data that was actually reported:

http://www.rebgv.org/sites/default/files/REBGV%20Nov%202015%20Stats%20Package%20Final.pdf

#172 liquidincalgary on 12.05.15 at 1:14 pm

Sharon on 12.04.15 at 9:27 pm

#38 Gulf Breeze

Look up the information and stats… the truth behind
what is actually taking place from the effects of
displaced or migrant people being placed in a country…

One of the most controversial questions in the discussion of both legal and illegal immigrants has been around their consumption of welfare. A recent independently verified report from the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) has answered that question – and the results are incredibly shocking.

The report by Dr. Steven Camarota titled “Welfare Use by Immigrant and Native Households” which analyzed welfare usage using the Census Bureau’s Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) data.

===============================================

i ‘clinked’ this piece of crap. it refers to the good ‘ol US of A

#173 Calgary Rip Off on 12.05.15 at 1:19 pm

Awesome today.

Alberta is toast. The NDP farm bill, the bitumen crazies, and the housing crazies and lack of rent controls. It’s an ongoing colonostomy from daylight to nightfall and more.

It’s funny, pre 2005 and oil less than $40 wasnt a problem, in fact it was normal. And now yet the companies want to hold onto increased revenues and demand these high prices. Reduce your greed you foolish companies and protect your workers.

As a plus side soon law enforcement will have less work due to legalization of a herb: Marijuana. Go Trudeau.

Not to fear Trump is here. If Trump gets in, hello pipeline.

RRSP, stocks, mutual funds and my interest rate is fixed at 2.5% no variable bs.

#174 Steerage bilge. on 12.05.15 at 1:26 pm

What the heck did the steerage section do to deserve a pic like that. Do middle aged nectonites actually look like that. Disturbing. And then of course he’s gonna turn and run right at us.

#175 Herb on 12.05.15 at 1:38 pm

#163 IHCTD9,

if I sounded apologetic, I apologize – I was hoping to sound disgusted.

Giving the meme prayer wheel another spin does not advance politics one bit. Deficits, revenue shrinkage and economic destruction may be assured, but they sure as hell didn’t start with this Trudeau’s swearing in.

#176 kommykim on 12.05.15 at 1:50 pm

RE:

#163 IHCTD9 on 12.05.15 at 12:11 pm
Believe what you will, but we are all going to be losers as long as T2 keeps on like he is – 20 Billion dollar deficit by the end of 2016 seems assured.

What about the CONs $55, $33, $26, $26, $19, & $17 BILLION deficits from 2009-2014? Harper makes T2 look like a fiscal genius so far:

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/canada-deficit/

#177 bdy sktrn on 12.05.15 at 1:55 pm

#73: “My first wife and I bought in Victoria at the condo peak in 93 and spent the next 7 years losing money and being under water the whole time. It was a factor in the divorce in 2000.”

************************

we bought van in 96 – price went down/flat for 5 years. did it matter? no. did we even know it was happening? no. (mls,ca was not invented yet and 604 re had yet to become a bloodsport)
however were not underwater because as dumb kids who knew nothing of RE we put 20% down.

now it’s 5x what we paid and long ago paid off.

(btw by 1999 my 5k trading acct grew larger than the mortgage – should have paid it all off then!)

live in your house, don’t worry about the spot price if you are paying it down reasonably fast.

#178 DON on 12.05.15 at 1:59 pm

“Actually I know and understand YVR quite well. You’re all nuts. I am not forecasting a crash, but a decline – and that will be bad enough. — Garth”

The Vancouver mentality has the possibility of turning a decline into a crash as sentiment changes and it is sexier to rent and be mobile.

“The world is full of risk. My only message is to ensure there is balance in your life, which means both fixed and liquid assets. And a dog. — Garth”

And for this knowledge and your continuing analysis I sincerely thank you. Be well!

#179 Westernman on 12.05.15 at 2:22 pm

Gulf Breeze @ # 39
If anyone here is stupid it’s you. They won’t be making any money, they’ll be collecting it from what’s left of the Canadian working class in the the form of Govt. handouts ( that’s WELFARE ). Then sending most of it back to somewhere…
The result- more bleed out for the Canadian Taxpayers ( SUCKERS ) and – Zero in economic gain or any other gain for that matter…
My advice – stop watching CBC propaganda and wake up…

#180 bdy sktrn on 12.05.15 at 2:22 pm

#171 Bram on 12.05.15 at 1:00 pm
#124 Leo Trollstoy

That graph is plain wrong.
————————————-
waaaaay waaaaaaaay wrong.

like off by a cool 100% on east side. (2.6m typical!!!)
re is hot here, but not THAT hot.

at 22% growth it will take nearly 4 years to get to that level ;)

#181 Hotdogs from Heaven on 12.05.15 at 2:28 pm

The Banks:

The reason the banks are making so much money and can raise their dividends is because they have been taking Garth’s advice and divesting out of Canada for quite a few years now. They all have large profitable operations in the U.S. and that’s why they can afford the divvy hikes.

U.S. Debt and Interest Rates:

There are too many people who keep stating that the Fed will not raise rates because the U.S. has so much debt. What they forget is that most U.S. debt is held by american individuals, corporations and institutions. A raise in interest rates just puts more money into the U.S. economy. In a similar vein, the same whiny people may not be aware that the American people currently hold $8.3 TRillion in U.S. deposit taking institutions according the FDIC’s own stats. That’s a record amount.

Those trillions of dollars in savings and chequeing accounts will generate billions more in income when interest rates start increasing and much of it will be going into the economy.

#182 Sideshow Rob on 12.05.15 at 2:28 pm

“More people are killed by Hippos in Africa than any other animal. If you get between a Hippo Mamma and her pups, she does not negotiate.”

Very true. You can bluff a lion. You can bluff a leopard and sometimes even an elephant or rhino. But if you ever get in the sights of a hippo you can kiss your butt goodbye. The only thing naked fat guy can do is pray for mistaken identity. (oh look. another hippo!)

#183 Sue on 12.05.15 at 2:31 pm

For what it’s worth—most big players seem to have been wrong footed again yesterday. Traders thought the ECB would go all in with a big QE and were disappointed with some now questioning whether the ECB is serious about QE because they just extended QE for 6 months but did not increase the size. Based on expectations, currency traders expected the $ to continue to strengthen and the Euro to continue to weaken heading to parity with the $. Instead, both went in opposite directions with the Euro gaining massively against the $ and the $ index falling hard. Both stocks and bonds fell, with bonds falling hard, which is unusual. The Dax in Germany fell by 4.5%—the US 30 year bond rose by 17 basis points, the 10 year by 15 bp. These are huge moves. These big hedge funds are big ticket leveraged players and when a squeeze hits, losses can be massive. I guess this is what is happening more and more often. This was happening while Yellen was testifying before Congress. Today, all this is reversing.

http://dollarcollapse.com/money-management/money-is-becoming-unmanageable-hedge-funds-post-losses-face-outflows/#disqus_thread

#184 Ray Skunk on 12.05.15 at 2:35 pm

#170

A boom always ends in a bust.

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/10/20/why-mainstream-economists-deny-housing-bubbles-until-after-they-implode-which-they-always-do/

Great article with a great video.

As for those questioning why Garth predicts a decline rather than a crash…
Garth has been derided for his bearish stance on RE by many. If he calls for a crash, it will give further ammunition to the doubters.

However, by calling for a gentle decline he doesn’t get as many critics on his back, is less likely labelled as a loon and his message may go further/resonate with more people.

My personal opinion is that privately he believes it will be worse, but is taking a gentler, less confrontational stance for the greater good.

#185 IHCTD9 on 12.05.15 at 2:44 pm

#145 Hope & Change (Canada) on 12.05.15 at 9:42 am

…But believe, me. I do. My grand parents lost their entire life savings, not once, but twice, to the Russians. My parents had to abandon everything when they moved to Canada.

So yeah, good point. Not every crisis can be recovered from within our own lifetime. Your quality of life is more important than money at some point.
____________________________________________

The same Canadians who bicker about pensions may have had bombs dropped on their heads decades ago. I’ve been told by old folks (who bicker about pensions) about how bombs made your pants vibrate when they exploded.

Your family was robbed by communists, my family had their city flattened, the guy down the road running the corner store escaped from North Korea, buddy at work escaped Vietnam in a wooden boat, old guy volunteering as a crossing guard survived Auschwitz.

I think Canadians know more than enough about international strife – even if they don’t like how things are going these days here in Canada.

#186 TurnerNation on 12.05.15 at 2:45 pm

The hardest thing for people to realize, that information has become weaponized. Every breathless international headline or tweet or anonymous official reporting – the same one to all sources – then a parade of experts – all designed to program you via channels and distract from the flows of Top 5 world businesses: oil, drugs, weapons, human trafficking, money laundering. The best in intelligence is working against you.
This war today is for your mind.

#187 IHCTD9 on 12.05.15 at 2:53 pm

#176 kommykim on 12.05.15 at 1:50 pm
RE:

#163 IHCTD9 on 12.05.15 at 12:11 pm
Believe what you will, but we are all going to be losers as long as T2 keeps on like he is – 20 Billion dollar deficit by the end of 2016 seems assured.

What about the CONs $55, $33, $26, $26, $19, & $17 BILLION deficits from 2009-2014? Harper makes T2 look like a fiscal genius so far:

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives/canada-deficit/
____________________________________________

Harper left -15.9 Billion adjusted after 2014 according to your link.

You are expecting T2 with his great fiscal policy to cut that down.

Is that correct?

#188 LTL_FTC on 12.05.15 at 2:55 pm

Garth – shouldn’t that photo have been reserved for a piece titled “Skin in the game”?

#189 IHCTD9 on 12.05.15 at 3:03 pm

#175 Herb on 12.05.15 at 1:38 pm
#163 IHCTD9,

if I sounded apologetic, I apologize – I was hoping to sound disgusted.

Giving the meme prayer wheel another spin does not advance politics one bit. Deficits, revenue shrinkage and economic destruction may be assured, but they sure as hell didn’t start with this Trudeau’s swearing in.
___________________________________________

You think T2 is going to end 2016 with less debt than Harpers’ 15.9?



Please state your answer clearly for the peanut gallery.



You’re not one of those guys who will be blaming Harper for everything under the sun in 2018 right?

Good, – T2 has the tiller, he’s calling the shots, the economy is his to redeem, or flush.

Apologies notwithstanding…

#190 Estrella on 12.05.15 at 3:17 pm

#151 Bytor the snow dog….

I don’t like to brag, but all is well in my neck of the woods. Yes. Female.professional. 45. Husband 2 kids and 2 dogs. All safe and no debt. Females are not always the knuckleheads portrayed.

Just teach your daughters about finance. I think that’s the most important thing. Don’t play into the barbie thing because girls will probably like to play monopoly too.

#191 Mark on 12.05.15 at 3:17 pm

“And now yet the companies want to hold onto increased revenues and demand these high prices. Reduce your greed you foolish companies and protect your workers.

Greed? What greed? Seen the stock charts of the Canadian oil majors (ie: the XEG ETF)? They haven’t gone anywhere since 2004, despite many years of retained earnings. Shareholders who put up their capital deserve a return as well, and they certainly won’t get that return by paying their workers above-market, especially during a severe downturn. Pretty much everyone in the oil and gas sector other than the shareholders has done better. Bondholders and banks got their coupon interest payments. Governments collected billions of royalties for little to no up-front investment. Employees were handsomely and extravagantly paid (even if many blew most of it on booze and crack). About the only people who haven’t meaningfully benefitted from the resource ‘boom’ were those who funded it.

“Good, – T2 has the tiller, he’s calling the shots, the economy is his to redeem, or flush. “

Except that the Tories basically ‘salted the Earth’ by loading a few hundred billion in probable bailout requirements into the CMHC. Unless Trudeau suddenly develops religion on public sector spending cutbacks, it is very unlikely he’ll be able to meet the highly ambitious target of “only” $10B deficits. Could’ve seen this coming a mile away, but the whole housing bubble was a sort of ‘third rail’ issue that nobody wanted to acknowledge in the election.

#192 IHCTD9 on 12.05.15 at 3:19 pm

#184 Ray Skunk on 12.05.15 at 2:35 pm
#170

A boom always ends in a bust.

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/10/20/why-mainstream-economists-deny-housing-bubbles-until-after-they-implode-which-they-always-do/

Great article with a great video.

As for those questioning why Garth predicts a decline rather than a crash…
Garth has been derided for his bearish stance on RE by many. If he calls for a crash, it will give further ammunition to the doubters.

However, by calling for a gentle decline he doesn’t get as many critics on his back, is less likely labelled as a loon and his message may go further/resonate with more people.

My personal opinion is that privately he believes it will be worse, but is taking a gentler, less confrontational stance for the greater good.
__________________________________________

So many variables to consider at the present – it’s really hard to say until we’re right on top of it.

FWIW, there is a half decade worth of news clips on YouTube featuring Peter Schiff calling for a US housing bust and subsequently being laughed off the show.

So, some can see it coming with good accuracy.

#193 Godth on 12.05.15 at 3:30 pm

#186 TurnerNation on 12.05.15 at 2:45 pm

Yup.

“Now of course Plato had his own reasons for using the cave metaphor, and developed it in directions that aren’t relevant to this week’s post. The point I want to make here is that every technology is a filter that shapes the way we experience and interact with the world. In some cases, such as television, the filtering effect is so drastic it’s hard not to see—unless, that is, you don’t want to see it. In other cases, it’s subtle. There are valid reasons people might want to use one filter rather than another, or to set aside an assortment of filters in order to get a clearer view of some part of the world or their lives.”
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.ca/2015/11/the-shadows-in-cave.html

We’re only one more great war away from Utopia (universal empire) in any case. How exciting!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GvkYl7M-QGA

#194 TurnerNation on 12.05.15 at 3:30 pm

Basic kando, white souless concrete box or castle?

http://www.narcity.com/toronto/9-castles-that-cost-less-than-a-condo-in-toronto/

#195 nubbers on 12.05.15 at 3:38 pm

“Kiss your deposit goodbye, file your papers and walk.”

Looking on the bright side, the 13K is well spent if it teaches an early lesson in finance. That is only 5 weeks of Terrie and Peter’s joint [gross?] income. They can recover from that.

That is so much better than being under water for half a lifetime. In fact, from personal experience, the effects of paying too much at the top of the property market will last your whole lifetime, because your negative equity will lock you out from buying something decent when the prices are at a low.

#196 TurnerNation on 12.05.15 at 3:48 pm

What the: Is this fractional ownership? Timeshare?
Top’s in.
….

Join us for the SHARING IS THE NEW OWNING

Location: Bosley Queen West 1108 Queen St West
RSVP: [email protected]

Refreshments & appetizers will be served
Don’t miss this evening! Limited space available!

You should attend this INFORMATION SESSION, if you’re:

• Fed up of renting?
• Discouraged home prices in Toronto have become too high for you?
• Frightened that you’ll never be able to take advantage of today’s low interest rates?
• Disturbed that even though you work hard and make decent money you still can’t afford a home?
• Frustrated by constantly moving when your landlord wants to sell?
• Freaked out by the prospect of renting forever?
• Tired of rent increases?
• Irritated that it’s harder to get a mortgage with a single income?
• Hate the idea of moving to the ‘burbs?
• Worried you’ll be renting forever?
• Wanting to put down some roots

CHECK THIS OUT FOR MORE INFO: http://ow.ly/UrGHz

#197 RayofLight on 12.05.15 at 3:57 pm

#134 Ralph Cramdown on 12.05.15 at 5:57 am
#110 RayofLight — ”
More people are killed by Hippos in Africa than any other animal.”

I’m going to come right out and guess (without even googling it or asking my phone) that more people in Africa are killed by mosquitoes than any other animal.
————————————
I think you are right. In my mind ,I was thinking large animals. One can then speculate ‘What is an animal?”
Are microbes an animal?

#198 kommykim on 12.05.15 at 4:19 pm

RE:

#182 Sideshow Rob on 12.05.15 at 2:28 pm
The only thing naked fat guy can do is pray for mistaken identity. (oh look. another hippo!)

Either way, he’s going to be screwed.

#199 Sarah Fanucci on 12.05.15 at 4:30 pm

Are we at or near the height of hypocrisy and denial? Calgary Herald reports that unemployment is a ‘good news story’.

http://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/how-one-laid-off-albertan-found-opportunity-in-unemployment-and-inspired-others

Can’t get a job? Losing your house? Take a trip overseas instead.

#200 kommykim on 12.05.15 at 4:35 pm

RE:

#187 IHCTD9 on 12.05.15 at 2:53 pm
Harper left -15.9 Billion adjusted after 2014 according to your link.
You are expecting T2 with his great fiscal policy to cut that down.
Is that correct?

No. That’s not what I’m saying. What I’m saying is that Harper set the bar pretty high with an average deficit of $25 BILLION (This includes the 2006/7 surpluses) through 9 fiscal years as PM.
So feel free to rag on T2 AFTER he racks up 8 years of deficits averaging more than $25 Billion (Adjusted). I’ll even join you. But to slag the guy before he actually does something is just bitter partisan whining.

#201 Patrick on 12.05.15 at 4:51 pm

#131 Go to Europe instead… on 12.05.15 at 5:29 am

Thanks for info. I actually had a european passport, expired 8 years ago. Had Canadian & EU. Not sure how hard it is to get one again.

#202 Ronaldo on 12.05.15 at 5:10 pm

#184 Ray Skunk – that was a very good video. A glimpse into our future.

#203 Washed Up Lawyer on 12.05.15 at 5:25 pm

My job alert emails are spiking upward noticeably with openings for family law lawyers here in Alberta. That is emotionally laden litigation. Not for me.

In my litigation experience, I learned that the only lawsuits more laden with emotion than child custody disputes are lawsuits over dream home construction gone wrong. Far more tears there.

#204 Herb on 12.05.15 at 5:29 pm

#188 IHCTD9,

for you – and the peanut gallery – I don’t much care whether T2 ends 2016 with a larger or smaller deficit than that projected by H1. Depends on the situation, on revenue and necessary expenditures, doesn’t it?

This may be news to you, but not all debt is bad, and not all expenditures are good. (Gazebos, anyone?) What does matter is that a government does what it has to do for the benefit of the whole country, not only it’s partisan and supporting bases. Novel concept, what?

If T2 does not fudge omnibus bills, shut down Parliament, freeze out inquiring minds, bring on the clowns in Question Period, and hamstring committees, I’ll let him run with any budget he thinks necessary and ignore the noise of ranting and raving on the wrong Right flank. He’ll at least be on a democratic course.

Laugh away, Tractor.

#205 Santa Claus on 12.05.15 at 5:34 pm

HO HO Hold the fear mongering, were talkin’ 470k, in 416 we call that diddly, cause thats what it buys. No cookies for me this year Garth.

#206 craig on 12.05.15 at 5:37 pm

By far the most comments I’ve seen about “if our economy is so bad why are the banks raising dividends. Blah blah blah”. The sheeple continue to be ignorant of course and think the grass is always green. Maybe they are raising dividends because they have people trapped into a rock and a hard place. 25 years of guaranteed mortgage payments, lines of credits, etc regardless on where rates go because people are too proud to do the right thing and rent for less. And this is assuming people don’t extend their mortgages later on, it’s one heck of of trap being set. Hope you are all strapped in and happy to be in debt for the long term.

#207 Patrick on 12.05.15 at 5:43 pm

Here’s something from FP on Canadian brain drain. Probably relevant considering they are booming and we are busting.

“The reason startups don’t stay in Canada, and come to the U.S., is 100 per cent about access to capital,” he wrote. “Canadian governments spend a lot of money on fake startup stuff — basically every city now has a government-funded accelerator or incubator. This is mostly money spent on pretend startup stuff….

A good way to help the innovation agenda is to take however much money goes into Labour Sponsored Venture Capital Companies and the so-called Scientific Research and Experimental Development (SRED) tax credits and turn these into tax credits for investment in private venture capital,” he said.

Instead, governments support the politicized labour-sponsored funds despite studies showing they are duds and, worse, crowd out private equity capital that would do a proper job.

http://business.financialpost.com/diane-francis/why-canada-should-adopt-the-u-s-innovation-model

#208 family beagle on 12.05.15 at 5:54 pm

#149 Woke To The Sounds Of Horking on 12.05.15 at 10:17 am
Garth and many of the posters here still don’t get it: Vancouver RE will never tank. And why would Garth get it? He lives in Toronto…

Van is the Singapore of Kanada. In fact, you can’t even consider it part of Kanada. A crash will never, ever happen in Vancouver. Once you get out into the world and see a bit of Asia (esp. dirty Asia) you realise why so many people want to flock to Vancouver and dump their cash there.

Do a bit of research on the population count of Asia, the gazillionaires in China. Then, when you realise that Van City could easily accommodate a population of around 25 million, it all starts to make sense.

As for anyone in Van who’s living below the 1% crowd, well, you’re f***ed.

…..

Good luck maintaining infrastructure, crime, healthcare, water. $400 service call from Langley to test a breaker. My Poco buddy charges $1000 to trim a hedge west of Boundary. $300 for a trip to the dump with green waste. And the strata pays it. $35k to replace a soggy porch. $60k for new roof every five years. $6k to pressure wash cheapo vinyl siding. $6k to border a garden with rail ties. $2k to change a ceiling fan. $15 for a latte and dry scone? $50 a board foot for maple, ha. 1% or not, we’ll need to run your credit if your toilet won’t flush. Prepare for the royal milking. In fact, just set up your paypal wallet with direct deposit to our bank account. We planned this out years ago with Bennet (rip). While newb Vancouverites squat on postage stamps in the slush belt, we bought up all the ag land surrounding. How many acres do you own, 160? 500? 1000? I can’t hit a golf ball the length of my driveway. This is Canada, the land of never ending land. Enjoy your tulip fest as we build to code for $75 a square foot. Anything above that is priced to your ego. Bring on the investment class.

#209 Patrick on 12.05.15 at 6:06 pm

#207 Patrick on 12.05.15 at 5:43 pm

I think that innovators and entrepreneurs leaving has a cultural aspect. If the whole country wants handouts, government jobs and safety. And you want risk, reward, innovation. You probably don’t identify too well with your neighbours or fit in culturally.

Innovative companies and minds flock to certain areas. Obviously there are tax and access reasons for this. But there is also cultural reasons. Surrounding yourself with peers is fun.

#210 jaybee on 12.05.15 at 6:19 pm

Mark = Charlatan

Agree?

#211 Ronaldo on 12.05.15 at 6:32 pm

#208 Family Beagle –

”I can’t hit a golf ball the length of my driveway.”

I was never much of a golfer either. LOL Reminds me of a newfie joke my newfie friend told me. They tell the best newfie jokes.

A newfie goes down to Texas and goes into a bar and sits down beside this big Texan. The texan asks him where he’s from and the Newfie replies, “Canada, Newfoundland”. Texan asks him if he has any land up there and the Newfie replies, “a couple acres”. Texan says, “you call that land? My land, I jump in my truck and a week later I’m at the other end of it.” Newfie replies, “I used to have a truck like that.”

#212 Ex-Everything on 12.05.15 at 6:36 pm

#208

“Enjoy your tulip fest as we build to code for $75 a square foot. ”

$75 sq ft is just the price of permits ( DCC’s) that add an extra $180,000 to $200,000 onto the price of building the ‘average’ popcorn shack. Think $200 sq ft in todays market….minimum.

a) Permits and taxes $180,000 to $200,000

b) Lot cost $350,000 to $450,000 any where east of west

c) $200 sq. ft X’s 2000 sq ft ( average crap shack in the valley) = $400,000

Add it up….and add a miniscule profit for the poor schlep carpenter who tries to make a buck for his family and you get the ‘average ‘new build crap shack) in the valley ( or outskirts of TO for that matter….priced at over $1 Million…..Asking $1.3 mill…. Sad but true.

Freakin townhouses in Richmond are already pushing a million and you’re lucky to find a plain jane 10 year old for less than $600,000

#213 Ronaldo on 12.05.15 at 6:59 pm

#206 craig on 12.05.15 at 5:37 pm

I’d say that you are pretty close to the mark with your comments. My thoughts as well.

#214 SRED on 12.05.15 at 7:08 pm

I have seen SRED money given to private company, creating worthless junk. Basically corporate welfare payment to shareholders.

#215 Julia on 12.05.15 at 7:13 pm

#119 Ontheledge
Good for you. Got out well.
I hear you on people only considering the mortgage. We were one of those when we bought our house, our first where we still are. We bought on comparing mortgage + taxes vs rent. At least our budget already factored in savings so we had some room to spare if need be but we stressed about the cost of the house anyway.

Since buying we have realized how much money needs to go into a 1920’s Toronto house between a new roof, electrical (goodbye knob and tube!), plumbing, basement waterproofing, new windows, attic insulation etc… It never ends. Then the unexpected. Between the 2 of us since 2003 there was mat leave, unemployment for a few months 3 times and a sick leave also for a few months. Good thing savings formed part of our budget and we always have an emergency fund otherwise I have no idea what we would have done.

I can’t even begin to imagine what people are going to do with these mega mortgages, I can’t believe that they are budgeting for these things. I think mortgage qualification should at the very least include a % of cost of the property as a maintenance/repair reserve.

#216 young & foolish on 12.05.15 at 7:13 pm

Is there a modern, dynamic economy not in debt today? Why are you guys so worried about ours?

#217 Julia on 12.05.15 at 7:24 pm

#135 Mark.

There are options other than CMHC though, Genworth being the biggest one. As far as the banks are concerned there is no difference I don’t think.

#218 DON on 12.05.15 at 7:42 pm

#184 Ray Skunk on 12.05.15 at 2:35 pm

My personal opinion is that privately he believes it will be worse, but is taking a gentler, less confrontational stance for the greater good.
***************

My belief as well, having read Garth for years.

Garth may have to go back on tour soon! Yikes!

#219 Panhead on 12.05.15 at 8:05 pm

That hippo is just near sighted, he’s looking for a little lovin’…

#220 Freedom First on 12.05.15 at 8:13 pm

#184 Ray Skunk

I agree Ray. However, I can say it. It will be worse.

I am seeing the pain in Alberta. Never mind me always putting my personal freedom first in my life, and being incredibly “lucky” in every way, I have never taken any joy in seeing the suffering people go through in downturns. But it has not stopped me from always profiting from it. It is my responsibility and duty to look after myself, as I am a man, and to help others. That is help, not enable.

#221 Daisy Mae on 12.05.15 at 8:42 pm

#118: “$470k purchase. Already sunk $13k. Another $20k due. Owe $33k student loan. Recently wed. Forever screwed.”

*****************

They’ll learn from their mistakes…just as we all do.

#222 The poor refugees on 12.05.15 at 8:53 pm

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/12034653/Middle-class-migrants-paying-10000-to-be-smuggled-into-Britain-by-speedboat.html

#223 Mark on 12.05.15 at 8:58 pm

“There are options other than CMHC though, Genworth being the biggest one. As far as the banks are concerned there is no difference I don’t think.”

Genworth (and Canada Guaranty’s) mortgage insurance is 90% re-insured by the CMHC. So the CMHC is still significantly on the hook for the stuff (~$300B worth) insured by those firms. Because the capital resources of the private sector insurers are relatively limited, mortgages insured by the private sector insurers trade at a discount to the ones that are fully CMHC insured.

I suspect the 3rd party mortgage insurers will end up, in a Canadian RE collapse, just like Ambac or PMI did when the US experienced its downturn.

#224 Dan from Richmond Hill on 12.05.15 at 9:00 pm

#215 young & foolish on 12.05.15 at 7:13 pm
Is there a modern, dynamic economy not in debt today? Why are you guys so worried about ours?

This is the problem in these “modern, dynamic economies”. Too much debt. Too many people believe that buying things without money is normal. And it is normal until it is not…

#225 Daisy Mae on 12.05.15 at 9:10 pm

#126: “Terri the answer is to walk as you have no other assets to lose. Declare bankruptcy.”

****************

This is abit extreme. Not necessary. They need to just take their lumps…and carry on.

#226 For those about to flop... on 12.05.15 at 9:22 pm

#219 Freedom First on 12.05.15 at 8:13 pm

I am seeing the pain in Alberta. Never mind me always putting my personal freedom first in my life, and being incredibly “lucky” in every way, I have never taken any joy in seeing the suffering people go through in downturns. But it has not stopped me from always profiting from it. It is my responsibility and duty to look after myself, as I am a man, and to help others. That is help, not enable.

//////////////////////////////////////////
I think the pain you are seeing is from catching your testicles in your zipper one to many times.

#227 RayofLight on 12.05.15 at 9:47 pm

#197 RayofLight on 12.05.15 at 3:57 pm
#134 Ralph Cramdown on 12.05.15 at 5:57 am
#110 RayofLight — ”
More people are killed by Hippos in Africa than any other animal.”

I’m going to come right out and guess (without even googling it or asking my phone) that more people in Africa are killed by mosquitoes than any other animal.
————————————
I think you are right. In my mind ,I was thinking large animals. One can then speculate ‘What is an animal?”
Are microbes an animal?
———————————
I looked it up. The animal that kills the most humans in Africa is man. Hippos came in 6th,mosquitoes 2nd.

http://www.sliptalk.com/top-25-killers/

#228 espressobob on 12.05.15 at 9:48 pm

It should be obvious the Hippo is traumatized, and views the human abomination as a threat. Probably a mutual fund manager?

Nature does what it must.

#229 ANON on 12.05.15 at 9:48 pm

The Greater Fool comment section: hundreds of social critics in a single thread. A most treasured gift, pricier than shiny rocks. I only wish Garth could make a (restricted, 21+) section with all the “DELETED” comments, uncensored. Nothing is more valuable than that for people who want a glimpse of the future, and who can take it full frontal.

#230 Ronaldo on 12.05.15 at 10:19 pm

Was talking to my son in central Alberta. The house he bought for $250,000 in spring of 2006 (1st owner bought it new in spring of 2005 for $150,000)in NW Calgary which he sold for in spring of 2007 at the peak of the market for $340,000 is now up for sale for $375,000 and he doesn’t figure they will get any more than he did after almost 9 years. Was great for the 1st and 2nd buyers, not so good for the 3rd. So, pretty dead market for the past 8.5 years it seems.

#231 observer on 12.05.15 at 10:42 pm

Inflation at 2%

Just went to costco today. Bacon from 15 to 20 dollars,
salsa, cheese etc all appears to have gone up by 18 to 30 percent.

Don’t know how these specialist are fudging up the numbers, but I can tell you one thing the cost of living has gone up by way over 2 percent

#232 Victor V on 12.05.15 at 11:12 pm

Conrad Black: The great climate conference charade playing out in Paris

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/conrad-black-the-great-climate-conference-charade-playing-out-in-paris&pubdate=2015-12-05

#233 Smoking Man on 12.05.15 at 11:29 pm

In fortress long branch, buzzed and thinking about shit.

I was looking up at stars…wondering, are they still there.

The light coming from that sector in theb sky is thousands of years old. If they they haven’t supper nova yet, in reality, they are not in that spot.

But from my prospective..they are where they are.

Perseption is realty… Where they really are.

Truth..

Only Nectonites know. EVEN the tall greys and reptilians got the spot wrong..

Not evoloved enough.. and they don’t drink..

#234 OXI in GREECE on 12.05.15 at 11:44 pm

And of course according to Stats Can the Govt Worker numbers went up. They always go up. Because the govt just keeps increasing taxes year after year. Yeah yeah……income tax went down….and was off set by 39 other taxes Federally, Provincially or Municipally.

Now T2 is going to bring in a Federal Global Cooling tax just like many of us said the Govts of the world would do. Global Cooling (not warming) is about TAXING YOU. Doing worry….its going to get worse. But keep Starbucking and Facebooking. You won’t notice you are doing nothing about it……

#235 Mark on 12.06.15 at 12:24 am

“Just went to costco today. Bacon from 15 to 20 dollars, salsa, cheese etc all appears to have gone up by 18 to 30 percent.”

I noticed similar at Costco when I attended a few weeks ago to use up some old gift cards. But nothing of the sort at my local Loblaws-owned grocery store. I think its more a function of Costco pushing up their prices appealing to a higher end audience and attempting to thin the herds out at their stores, rather than true inflationary pressure in the economy. At least for my consumption basket, it would appear to be more expensive to shop at Costco than it would be elsewhere.

Costco has a lot of items in pack sizes that represent a significant convenience. On many core items, they have stability of inventory that the other grocery stores could only dream of (the problem with the ‘other’ grocery stores is if they put an item on sale, the locals will remove every last item of it from the shelves within a day!). Costco has increasingly figured out that their target market is individuals and the small business owners who need reliability of supply at stable prices, rather than absolute cheapness. And they’re adjusting ther pricing accordingly rather than being hyper-aggressive in building new warehouses. Its a smart business strategy, and their long-term stock price has reflected their extreme success in that niche even if they weren’t able to appropriately and fully monetize it initially. (this is the approach that many Amazon stock bulls believe Amazon is carrying out as well, although the jury is still out whether it will ever translate to profitability!)

For instance, try running a small restaurant or catering business when half the time, there’s no chicken breast available at the grocery stores. Sure, bigger restaurants can get themselves a Sysco account, or contract directly with a meat broker. But Costco fills that large void in the ‘prosumer’ food market. Similar logic applies to many other lines they carry.

#236 Leo Trollstoy on 12.06.15 at 1:31 am

Everybody knows that the government used giant worldwide causes in order to justify increased taxation. That’s the only way to minimize dissent.

There’s nothing you can do about it so just keep on keeping on.

#237 chapter 9 on 12.06.15 at 1:33 am

#232 Victor V
Conrad Black: The great climate conference charade playing out in Paris

Climate conference, nothing more than a taxpayer funded vacation for a bunch of leeches. More people from the federal, provincial and municipal governments are eating,drinking,flying first class, than all the delegates from the US, Britain, and Australia combined. I can’t imagine the cost of sending 383 people over there, just another tab for the 1%er’s to pick up!!!

#238 kommykim on 12.06.15 at 2:30 am

RE:

#232 Victor V on 12.05.15 at 11:12 pm
Conrad Black: The great climate conference charade playing out in Paris

Conrad Black! Now there’s an upright, honourable, and honest citizen!
-end sarcasm-

#239 Looney Tuney on 12.06.15 at 2:50 am

This one is to your webmaster (William Stratas):
Since you seem to run WordPress, would you consider connecting the blog to WordPress.com with the JetPack plugin? I’d like to read the blog from the InstaPress app.

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.appsropos.instapress

#240 Rural Rick on 12.06.15 at 3:17 am

Like most people I don’t really know anything. I do have a few theories.
Capitalism has too many poor people.

#241 Freedom First on 12.06.15 at 3:31 am

#226 For those about to flop…

Well, flop, I wasn’t going to mention it, but if you insist. I see you live in Vancouver due to your wife’s friends and relatives living there. Your words.

Hey flop, at least I have testicles.

#242 Leo Trollstoy on 12.06.15 at 3:35 am

When you dig into it, there’s definitely a lot of heavyweights who don’t think climate change is a big deal.

https://www.nas.org/articles/Estimated_40_Percent_of_Scientists_Doubt_Manmade_Global_Warming

I’m not a scientist so I don’t have any credible opinion.

I’m also skeptical whenever the government decides to drive our economy into more taxation with the public’s encouragement. Just odd.

#243 maxx on 12.06.15 at 6:33 am

#1 Bob on 12.04.15 at 6:44 pm

“Unemployment up to 7.1%.

30% of economy dependant on construction.

Not looking good.

Anyone for KD tonight?”

Not savers, many of them are dining on cruise ships and in tropical resorts.
Idiots who listen to realtards and have lost their minds to re can shake that packet of dried cheese mix.
Savers rule.

#244 waiting on the westcoast on 12.06.15 at 6:44 am

#199 Sarah Fanucci on 12.05.15 at 4:30 pm
“Are we at or near the height of hypocrisy and denial? Calgary Herald reports that unemployment is a ‘good news story’.
http://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/how-one-laid-off-albertan-found-opportunity-in-unemployment-and-inspired-others. Can’t get a job? Losing your house? Take a trip overseas instead.”

I remember my family taking an extended trip to Italy (family there so no hotel) in the early 80s because there was no work for my Dad’s business (heavy equipment).

I think it was good for him as he reduced staff to skeleton crew who kept the lights on (but basically did nothing – there was nothing to do) and he was able to think more broadly about opportunities while relieved of watching/experiencing the day to day stress at his office.

When we came back he pivoted into placer mining equipment manufacturing which was fruitful for him for the next 8 years.

#245 waiting on the westcoast on 12.06.15 at 6:49 am

#214 SRED on 12.05.15 at 7:08 pm
“I have seen SRED money given to private company, creating worthless junk. Basically corporate welfare payment to shareholders.”

The SRED monies are a 35% credit on monies already paid/invested on r&d by the company. So a company invests 100k on some r&d activity, it receives a 35k credit upon end of tax year.

Personally, I don’t like it (it is fading fast as a tactic due to more stringent requirements) because it needs to be vetted. Better to have investment programs like the EBC which gives the investor a 30% credit on monies invested in an eligible business (BC program).

#246 batt519 on 12.06.15 at 6:50 am

The real predicament…

http://schrts.co/gtOx9n

http://schrts.co/zhH2ki

#247 Jubes on 12.06.15 at 8:17 am

Hi Garth,
I’m also taking on some housing related life risk with my own twist and would like comment on it.

I just purchased my first home for $116,000. I made sure to save and invest my way to a net worth of $130,000 before pulling the trigger. I put down 35%+ so I could get a Heloc instead of a mortgage so I could save on the loan — as opposed to earning and being taxed on savings at 0.8%. I was planning on using my home equity as a substitute for bonds in a DIY 50/50 portfolio (50% equity index funds based on net worth, not asset holdings).

Am I nuts to think that I’m somehow balanced given that I’ve essentially leveraged myself to avoid the ‘pay the mortgage or invest’ question?

#248 Julia on 12.06.15 at 9:03 am

#223 Mark
Thanks, that’s interesting. That made me wonder if the Genworth exposure was factored into the CMHC exposure we read about. So I read their statements.
Genworth is backed by the Government (as are CMHC and Canada Guaranty) under the Insurance Companies Act, administered by OSFI, all 3 operating independently. The only difference is that CMHC is backstopped at 100% while the others are at 90%.

Tried to find disclosure the overall Government backed exposure somewhere but have been unable. Have we only been looking at CMHC numbers only?

#249 Herb on 12.06.15 at 10:11 am

#242 Trollstoy,

so how much “digging into it” have you done, besides link to the summary view of one scientist in an interview in a four-year old article, to cast doubt on the current climate change issue?

If it walks like a troll, talks like a troll …

#250 Daisy Mae on 12.06.15 at 10:28 am

#163: “….20 Billion dollar deficit by the end of 2016 seems assured.”

******************

You mean on top of the $610 billion deficit the ‘Harper Government’ racked up?

#251 bdy sktn on 12.06.15 at 10:44 am

Rural Rick on 12.06.15 at 3:17 am

Like most people I don’t really know anything. I do have a few theories.
Capitalism has too many poor people.
____________
If you would like to see more poor people
try anything but capitalism..
H

#252 TurnerNation on 12.06.15 at 10:46 am

#193 Godth I glanced at that blog entry and comments.

I had same experience two weeks ago, out casually eating with friends on a Fri., was asked – by someone with good job and a graduate degree – if I’d seen this new show. I said no. “So, what shows do you watch”. Umm, none really. “Sports”? No I don’t really have a tee-vee. “Omg you must see this show; what do you do with your life, how do you fill your days”. I was alien.

Funny thing is, I caught almost all Jays playoff games on TV…out with friends at lounges/bars. That’s how to do it.

#253 Daisy Mae on 12.06.15 at 10:47 am

Oops! That $610 billion liability is attributed to CMHC….

#254 For those about to flop... on 12.06.15 at 10:50 am

#241 Freedom First on 12.06.15 at 3:31 am
#226 For those about to flop…

Well, flop, I wasn’t going to mention it, but if you insist. I see you live in Vancouver due to your wife’s friends and relatives living there.

//////////////////////////////////////////////
Yeah your right I should commute to Australia each day for work, that should be cost effective!
This is why you are an old lonely codger, by the sounds of it you haven’t heard of the word ” compromise”.

#255 Daisy Mae on 12.06.15 at 10:53 am

#182: “The only thing naked fat guy can do is pray for mistaken identity. (oh look. another hippo!)”

***********************

LOL It IS true — most people look better with clothes on.

#256 Julia on 12.06.15 at 11:38 am

Would this mean an additional $155 billion exposure (March 2014) on mortgage insurance on top of the $610 for CMHC?
http://www.tpsgc-pwgsc.gc.ca/recgen/cpc-pac/2014/vol1/s11/pe-cl-eng.html#t11.5

#257 jess on 12.06.15 at 11:40 am

world wide chains

How exposing anonymous companies could cut down on crime – Global Witness

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FyOVMqAIFw8

#258 TurnerNation on 12.06.15 at 11:52 am

What’s scariest: prospect of Fed rate hike this month, or some made-for-TV “IS” drama?
Good ole “IS” actions seem to be aligned with goal of surveillance state and ww3. Funny how that works.
They want us foaming at the mouth to go ” over there” and “get them” (whomever “they” may be). Well, this worked in 2001.

#259 Burton on 12.06.15 at 12:43 pm

#249 Herb you’ve been drinking too much Climatefraud koolaid. As soon as any issue becomes politicized and where political and scientific careers and billions of dollars are at stake all truth in the matter is lost. Who’s gonna rock the boat and dare contradict official truth?

#260 Tony on 12.06.15 at 1:04 pm

Re: #235 Mark on 12.06.15 at 12:24 am

Costco Canada needs to do something about their backed goods. I don’t know why they even sell baked goods when most of them only have an expiration date two days in the future at any time you purchase them.
They do however have good prices on pharmaceutical items.

#261 SRED on 12.06.15 at 1:39 pm

#214 SRED on 12.05.15 at 7:08 pm
“I have seen SRED money given to private company, creating worthless junk. Basically corporate welfare payment to shareholders.”

The SRED monies are a 35% credit on monies already paid/invested on r&d by the company. So a company invests 100k on some r&d activity, it receives a 35k credit upon end of tax year.

Personally, I don’t like it (it is fading fast as a tactic due to more stringent requirements) because it needs to be vetted. Better to have investment programs like the EBC which gives the investor a 30% credit on monies invested in an eligible business (BC program).

——

The insanity is what qualifies today in Canada for R&D.

Finding mediocre solutions for mediocre problems to achieve minuscule goals.

I can’t really blame companies who shamelessly exploit it to increase the personal wealth of the owners, with no measurable benefit beyond that scope. OK, it also benefits the government employees administering the program.

#262 Tiger1960 on 12.06.15 at 4:49 pm

DELETED

#263 Herb on 12.06.15 at 5:27 pm

#259 Burton,

I don’t touch anyone’s Kool-aid and have been following the debate for some years Two observations I find significant:

1. On which side of the climate change issue is the real money applied? It isn’t spent by the alarmists. Cui bono, or “Follow the money.”

2. If climate change is so simple to deny, why do deniers resort to such “arguments” as Al Gore’s wealth or the number of Suzuki’s houses? When I see such arguments, I know that they’re being used in the absence of objective facts.

#264 lfy on 12.07.15 at 1:42 pm

More about Costco.

I got out to get my lunch when I faced a table promoting Costco membership cards.

I told the guy that I do not like to pay for membership when in fact it should be a privilege for the store to have me entering on their facilities.

The answer I got was that Costco does not make money selling products, they make money only with the membership cards.

I was shocked, I shrugged and politely ended the conversation. Hard to swallow.