The squeeze

DOG KID modified

Now we know what’s coming.

First, that storied interest rate increase is a done deal. This week the Fed did everything but Tweet that lift-off comes on December 16th. The labour report due out Friday morning would have to be an unmitigated disaster (100,000 new jobs or less) to halt this train. But nobody other than the misanthropes who hang out here expect such a thing. So, up she goes.

Second, this means mortgage rates will be rising. Already happening, of course. Fixed-term costs have swelled of late and variables are plumping, too. Although the Bank of Canada can’t immediately follow the Fed, since our economy’s a swamp, the bond market can. And will. So lock in.

Third, down payments are climbing. Yesterday it was speculation. Today, not so much.

The story first broke on a mortgage industry blog two days ago – that our new finance guy, Bill Morneau, would soon bring in a graduated scale of allowable down payments for CMHC purposes. Buying houses under half a million might require 5%. Up to $700,000 would take 7%. Over that, 10%. The announcement may come in January, and it would be consequential.

This was confirmed by the chief economist for a Big Five Canadian bank several days ago, in Switzerland of all places. One of the clandestine GreaterFool operatives deployed in that country sent this encrypted report about his arranged luncheon with the econoguy:

“We had a long discussion about housing – and the way I got the conversation off to a start was to throw out the comment that “I am convinced that no government of any kind is going to get in the way of this crazy market or put any curbs on the foreign buyers”.  His response was interesting . . He mentioned he expected the down payment requirements to increase by some amount fairly soon. The other was that he believed that we would see some type of foreign investment regulation . . and that the data is currently being investigated as to money source / money destination / local housing market impacts and then based on this . make some type of response which addresses this.

Hmmm. And there’s more.

We’ve now learned that hike-the-down movement originated within the Department of Finance, and was presented to the hapless Joe O earlier in the year. Not in possession of balls of steel (and facing an election), Joe nixed the idea as too explosive and unpopular. So when the new guy assumed the same chair, officials again trotted out the plan. At its core is an attempt to cold shower YVR and the GTA without sending Calgary, Montreal and Halifax into a housing depression. After all, real estate now accounts for a very unhealthy 15% of Canada’s entire GDP.

Morneau knows well enough that if the T2 government is about to enact something as market-killing as this, herding thousands of recent idiot buyers into a negative equity trap, it must do so early in the four-year mandate. That way, given their gnat-like attention span of most citizens, whose brains have been permanently damaged by HGTV, Mike Holmes and Brad Lamb, they might actually blame this on Stephen Harper.

So it looks like this is the big squeeze. The normalization of interest rates. Higher mortgage costs. Fatter down payments. All likely to foster a surge in market activity as the lemmings dive in to ‘beat’ the increases and end up buying at the absolute market top. Then, crickets. Meanwhile our oil-drenched economy slumps along, headed for years of fat deficits, higher taxes and bigger government. What else wold you expect from a country that flew 383 people all the way to Paris for a climate change conference? (The US, ten times larger, sent 148, including the president.)

And did you catch the latest realtor stats from our two bubble cities? In Vancouver the local board reports sales were up 40% from last November and the price of a detached home jumped 22% to $1.226 million. In Toronto, the average for a detached is now $1.08 million, up almost 9%, while it was “the best November ever.” This should be all the proof Morneau ever needed to take away the booze.

Of course, some people think realtors lie. One of them is former realtor Ross Kay, now a housing analyst. Here is the note he sent me this morning about the November stats:

Vancouver – 72.81% of all listings failed to sell
Calgary –  84.36% of all listings failed to sell
Toronto – 75.1% of all listings failed to sell

How is it possible everyone is claiming there are no homes for sale to meet demand when so many are not selling?  What educated Canadian would pay asking price or higher for a home when 3/4 of the one’s they see are not selling? How does TREB claim a record November in 2015 when way back in 2009 it recorded 7445 pending sales but only 7385 pending sales this year?

From all of the above, a reasonable person would conclude this is the time to be dumping, not buying, and that windfall capital gains in one of the bubble markets should be harvested. Fast.

304 comments ↓

#1 No debt on 12.03.15 at 7:00 pm

Pump those rates up ASAP!! Can’t wait!!

#2 bdy sktrn on 12.03.15 at 7:01 pm

climate change is diverting billions away from efforts to reduce real pollution

#3 Guy on 12.03.15 at 7:03 pm

First?

I can’t wait to see the Canadian dollar fall, maybe then people will wake up!

#4 old gringo on 12.03.15 at 7:04 pm

I have this sinking feeling the CDN $ and market are in for a wee bit of a beating .
Time will tell.

#5 SkiBUM on 12.03.15 at 7:05 pm

T2 movin and shakin, this bum likes it

#6 Bobby on 12.03.15 at 7:06 pm

When will we learn, who’s tired of hearing such opposing stories from what should be credible people.

#7 crossbordershopper on 12.03.15 at 7:10 pm

i am going to rurual saskatchewan for work, you believe it. i am buying a house for 100 grand. the whole thing, nice garage and backyard.
i could stay in hamilton and do nothing the rest of my life and accomplish nothing or go out west and try. i could fail, sure, and i could easily go back to low end hamilton and end up where many of my old friends will be in 20 years anyway.
life is short, make money, pay less tax, and retire somewhere warm.
in the end no one cares about you. i learned that first hand last week. When pushed the truth about people comes out. one would take a bullet for me, the other would be glad to shoot me.

#8 Keith on 12.03.15 at 7:10 pm

I have surfed the mls listings several times a week for as long as I have owned a computer with an internet connection. In 1999, there were routinely 250+ open house listings in east vancouver every week, and the market was reasonably balanced. The number plummeted in the last 15 years, despite the population growth.

These days you see about 125 – 150 listings for the week, many with a date and time when offers will be accepted. Kick out the low quality listings (tear downs, address on high traffic streets, or needing extensive renovation) and you have relatively little product for the demand, particularly SFH which are being torn down at the rate of more than one a day.

A real estate agent Keith Roy has a blog called buildinginvancouver.com. He bought a tear down in the Main street area for one million, on a standard 33 x 120 lot. He has a budget of 600k to build a house with a basement suite and a lane way house on the property. He bought the land in February this year. The last post was in September, he doesn’t even have a demolition permit yet due to volume at city hall. This market is crazy smoking hot.

#9 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 7:12 pm

Aggred

Full force T2 communism coming like a hurricane.

#10 taking money off the table on 12.03.15 at 7:13 pm

Many investors always wait for the big drop before they even start to consider they should have liquidated at the top.

Of course 75% of Vancouver listings don’t sell. Who would throw money at this overpriced market at this juncture in time?

This is the end of a very long cyclical bull market. The correction will start slow and then gain speed. Bottom is many years off. In the meantime the equity that once could have been realized is melting.

Does nobody in Vancouver read the news from China? There’s a massive slump in the Chinese economy and the government is cracking down on corruption and capital outflows.

Vancouver will get hit. There’s nothing supporting that market other than “8s” and wishful thinking that more of the same “8s” will strike the price.

Dreamers.

#11 Bob Santarossa on 12.03.15 at 7:16 pm

Prophetic Garth, just prophetic.

And now the writing is on the wall for YVR and 416.

‘Been saying this to my friends since August 2014 and called it for later this year.

Right on schedule and right on Garth.

#12 Random Forest on 12.03.15 at 7:16 pm

Looks like this is it.
It also looks like a major fustercluck is coming to everything related to the real estate industry, including banks and it will send RY.TO, BMO.TO, etc. into a deep deep dive. Will that affect preferreds too? Should we expect Boxing Day deals on CPD.TO?

#13 William of the North on 12.03.15 at 7:16 pm

We live in a bubble….. a few bubbles.

#14 ole Doberman on 12.03.15 at 7:17 pm

Gartho how can RE boards get away with lying like that?! – cant we report them to a securities commision or something…

#15 i.see.debt.people on 12.03.15 at 7:17 pm

fffirrrrrrst !

#16 Zorba on 12.03.15 at 7:18 pm

Why harvest FAST,Garth,if you proclaimed ;”It is going to be gradual deflation”?!

#17 Doug t on 12.03.15 at 7:18 pm

Popcorn check – recliner check – 3D glasses check – six pack check – let the show begin – Rambo ain’t got nothin on how this drama will play out

#18 Millenial on 12.03.15 at 7:18 pm

Garth,
I’ve noticed your blog postings have become more frequent recently.

#19 TRT on 12.03.15 at 7:20 pm

10% down for homes over a million?

Zero effect on market. As if people buy $1 million homes with 10% down and finance $900,000.

This is hot air. Those with official mortgage stats know this.

Trying to ‘talk down’ the market. Sound familiar?

#20 zee on 12.03.15 at 7:23 pm

Will believe the new mortgage rules when it happens.

Many times its been talked about here in the past about certain changes and nothing ever happened.

All of these politicians chicken out and do the right thing to cool this crazy housing market.

Its really stupid out there when it comes to Housing.

#21 Derek R on 12.03.15 at 7:23 pm

It’s been a while since I last linked to the GarthFAQ. So here, once again for those who are new to this pathetic blog, a glossary of the arcane terms which may have you scratching your head when you read the back numbers…

The GarthFAQ

#22 Ken on 12.03.15 at 7:25 pm

My mortgage is up for renewal, so fixed or Variable?

#23 LH on 12.03.15 at 7:27 pm

383 people… Crazy
Shifting my wealth gradually to US equity
Starting next month with that long awaited share of BRK/A

#24 JSS on 12.03.15 at 7:29 pm

All is not lost in Canada.

Dividend increases announced this morning:

– Enbridge (+14%)
– CIBC (+3%; +8.5% YTD)
– Canadian Western Bank (+5%; +9.5% YTD)

Yummy yummy, fill my tummy…

#25 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 7:29 pm

Time for another Gatho Show at international centre.

The clock will finally hit midnight next year.

Wear a tux..

#26 Broke Dick on 12.03.15 at 7:34 pm

Toronto – 75.1% of all listings failed to sell-GT, RK

This stat includes of course houses that were listed late in November and not accepting offers until some time in Dec.

Doom and gloom.

#27 StandardDeviation on 12.03.15 at 7:34 pm

Currently watching all the drama unfolding whilst on hols in Australia, and what never ceases to amaze me is how flakey people are worldwide. Was prompted to look up an old quote pertaining to america but am pretty sure it also applies to us party folk in the loft apartment above.

“The larger the mob, the harder the test. In small areas, before small electorates, a first-rate man occasionally fights his way through, carrying even the mob with him by force of his personality. But when the field is nationwide, and the fight must be waged chiefly at second and third hand, and the force of personality cannot so readily make itself felt, then all the odds are on the man who is, intrinsically, the most devious and mediocre — the man who can most easily adeptly disperse the notion that his mind is a virtual vacuum.

The Presidency tends, year by year, to go to such men. As democracy is perfected, the office represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. We move toward a lofty ideal. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.”— H. L. Mencken

Time will tell as I feel we are fast approaching perfection in democracies worldwide.

#28 Bill McCormick on 12.03.15 at 7:34 pm

…the first world fiat presses roll…
…Feds walk on eggs trying to deflate asset bubbles without irritating the folks sipping espressos on the
Intercostal and the Ringstrasse…
…oil back where it should be at around 50.00 WTI…

HANG ON TO YOUR SHORTS, RE “INVESTORS”!

#29 Patrick on 12.03.15 at 7:34 pm

Won’t rising mortgage rates create the soft landing that everybody is hoping for? I don’t see why T2 would take the political risk. What if the market doesn’t turn around by the next election?

#30 Darryl on 12.03.15 at 7:34 pm

Garth, are you working with some US Hedge Fund firms… like a pied piper of sorts? Any word if they are “ALL IN” and poised to make a fortune against a CDN housing crash?

#31 JamesA on 12.03.15 at 7:35 pm

Nice reporting Garth. If this turns out to be true, it will be huge. I am sceptical because that would mean the government was acting responsibly in a really tough situation (instead of ostrich tactics followed by blame game which is the norm).

This could be the beginning of the desperately needed correction. Along with all the other problems we have, wow, what interesting times we live in.

#32 Bram on 12.03.15 at 7:36 pm

>Vancouver – 72.81% of all listings failed to sell

Garth,

Where is the source for that?
Because that is not what CTV is reporting.
I quote:

“The ratio of sales to home’s available for sale reached 44 per cent in November, which is the highest it’s been in our market in nine years.” – CTV.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/november-home-sales-in-vancouver-up-40-per-cent-from-year-ago-real-estate-board-1.2683835

#33 Owning is da best on 12.03.15 at 7:37 pm

You gotta live somewhere so mind as well own.

#34 Gordie Beamer on 12.03.15 at 7:39 pm

They cant stop selling hope of an easy buck.you just cant pay people to live in their houses.listings in sylvan lake 125 pop 13500 .ALOT of people hurting no jobs around red deer area donating to food bank to help out

#35 NextYear on 12.03.15 at 7:41 pm

Market were down big time today… this will continue until the Fed Cries Uncle and postpone the rate hike to March 2016.

Or the market will continue to go higher and higher reaching all time high… but the fed will still postpone to march 2016…probably stating inflation or some other crap like this.

92% of economist will be wrong again while every regular Joe who don’t shit about the economky will be right again

No Rate Hike on Dec 16!!! 0% and no QE is as tight as it gets

#36 Patrick on 12.03.15 at 7:45 pm

“This should be all the proof Morneau ever needed to take away the booze.”

I picture him and Trudeau having a few at 24 sussex with the old vinyl playing some Willie Nelson.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QoQZ0qmf-mk

#37 NoOneOfConsequence on 12.03.15 at 7:49 pm

classic!
…gnat-like attention span of most citizens…

What’s really classic…is being ridiculed by family when bringing up the fact that it’s time to harvest gains.

After much laughing the topic turns back to….”buy an investment or condo or two by maxing my heloc for a downpayment…”

Sigh…it is different here. Its even more stupid than everywhere else.

#38 Ken on 12.03.15 at 7:49 pm

Question: Garth (Anyone) I am wondering if any of you that lived through the 80’s with high interest rates and the crash of 1987 could add any direction in how severe people think this housing correction may be in comparison to the 80’s era? What I understand is household debt and home prices were not as severe as what we see today. Does anyone have any thoughts on what kind of % we could see in this correction? Greatly Appreciated

#39 Freedom First on 12.03.15 at 7:49 pm

Sometimes it is hard to stay humble. My inner circle of friends and relatives who are somewhat aware of my financial situation and how I have operated over the years are telling me I am brilliant.

Of course, not one of these people, who are living in Alberta, took my advice before oil crumbled that now would be a good time to reap the profits of their good fortune. And this is the people who asked me for my opinion. The times in my life when I have hit a double or triple in a short time, I had no problem whatsoever in selling. Thing is, I am not trying to hit home runs. I simply enjoy my life every day like it is the last day of my life, but invest as if I am going to live forever. Financial Principles rule.

#40 ed on 12.03.15 at 7:51 pm

RE # 22 “Owning is da best”

Here is a good research study on the useless repetition of mindless aphorisms, like “Everybody’s gotta live somewhere” (so that’s why owning is good), or “Even a broken clock is right twice a day” (used to dis this blog); (Or how about those who buy lottery tickets: “Someone’s gotta win” (thus justifying wasting several tens of thousands over a lifetime)). Please note the title:

“On the reception and detection of pseudo-profound bullshit”:

http://journal.sjdm.org/15/15923a/jdm15923a.html

#41 Love my Kia on 12.03.15 at 7:51 pm

I think you finally got the timing right on this one Garth.

Now the million dollar question, where are the opportunities? (apart from vulching real estate).

No one has any money, anywhere (Canada or US). Maybe stock in my favorite grocery store, No Frills.

#42 Mandria on 12.03.15 at 7:54 pm

Does anyone have any thought on ENB and ENF both are down about a third and seem to be stable dividend payers….now a good time to buy?

#43 april on 12.03.15 at 7:56 pm

We here think #18 is always trying to pump up the market —wonder why??!!!

#44 Herethere on 12.03.15 at 7:56 pm

A complete surprise! The eunuchs have left, as usual, leaving the mess of their doing for somebody else to try to fix it. Re: 383 vs 148 to the safety of Paris. In one hand the former, can be because they’re, as the ones they replaced, careless spenders. Or it could be chalked, as a sign that they care. While the later, may be penny pinching or being frugal. Or on the other hand, really don’t give a hoot about it. As for RE, now that the punters are all in, the 1% are calling the chips.

#45 Rediculous on 12.03.15 at 7:57 pm

Oh Lord…..please let this be true. I will instantly become a really big fan of T2 and Morneau. Bring it on!

#46 Jeffrey of Saskatoon on 12.03.15 at 7:57 pm

The dominoes are clashing, each set in place with the utmost care and attention. Living is risky business. Death is a reward.

#47 Setting the Record Straight on 12.03.15 at 7:59 pm

I thought the article linked below was an interesting discussion of the credit market associated with auto loans in the US.

Perhaps someone with experience in this area could comment.

I do not understand why there is not more concern about these developments.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-03/auto-loan-madness-continues-us-car-buyers-take-record-debt-lunatic-financing-terms

#48 Ralph Cramdown on 12.03.15 at 7:59 pm

#18 TRT — “10% down for homes over a million? Zero effect on market. As if people buy $1 million homes with 10% down and finance $900,000.”

Anyone who has to sell to move up will be affected, dollar for dollar, by loss of buying power of those lower on the ladder.

#49 Jeffrey of Saskatoon on 12.03.15 at 8:04 pm

A new synthetic opiate is being released in the US. It’s entirely crushable and time-released, delivering a fatal dose in a single pill. The kids here in ‘Stoon-Hell are loving the synthetics. I don’t go to the doctors. Project Paperclip. Trust no one.

#50 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 8:04 pm

I’ll do everything in my power (Full Nectonite plasma nozel) to insure Wynnes, Colin Vaugh, and every young urbinite home prices get crushed..

#51 Valley Girl on 12.03.15 at 8:07 pm

This is the first time I’ve ever seen you use a ‘bad’ picture. That someone would think it is more important to snap a ‘cute’ photo rather than getting the dog off of the obviously distressed child is pathetic . . . and heartbreaking.

The kid is distressed? Or are you? — Garth

#52 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 12.03.15 at 8:07 pm

“The other was that he believed that we would see some type of foreign investment regulation”

That would suck for Canada. We need moar foreign investors not less. We will sorely need the transfer of wealth that comes with it. We should want to sell as much R/E as possible at these nose bleed levels.

Anyway, clearly the US $ peaked with a double top today. This has been one of the most crowded trades in curency history if the Committment of Traders reports are any indication. History shows that the US$ runs up until the FED raises and then its sideways to downhill from there. It may be counter intuitive to some, but this is just the case of selling the news.

Of course cmmodity prices will rise as a result. One interesting piece of history is that the US equity market has never outperformed the Canadian for more than 5 years in a row, so the best before date on that market has arrived.

#53 Mark on 12.03.15 at 8:08 pm

Won’t rising mortgage rates create the soft landing that everybody is hoping for? I don’t see why T2 would take the political risk. What if the market doesn’t turn around by the next election?

“T2” really doesn’t have much choice. The Canadian housing market is now entering its 3rd year of stagnation and minor declines. Evidence is significant that the minor declines to date are on the cusp of turning into outright panic. And there is severe overcapacity in the RE supply sector with vendors racing to bring even more capacity on-stream to fight sagging margins. Meanwhile the non-FIRE economy continues to weaken with nary a day without mass layoffs being in the news.

Its like that old “Fram” oil filter commercial. “Pay me now or pay me later”. At least “Justin” will be able to blame the crash on the Tories if it happens early, and the economy should be into at least the underpinnings of an early cycle recovery by the time he goes to the polls.

The government can’t simply close its eyes and pretend the problems will go away. Interest rates, already at some of their lowest levels in years, won’t make any difference if they are lowered as the market is well past its peak. They had to act, and I agree with Garth that the probability of CMHC subprime mortgage insurance tightening is extremely strong.

#54 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 8:09 pm

#36 Jeffrey of Saskatoon on 12.03.15 at 7:57 pm
The dominoes are clashing, each set in place with the utmost care and attention. Living is risky business. Death is a reward.

Ala Akbar…just fking with my CSIS observation team…

CSIS why the fk have you let Gerard Butts get into this posion of power, he’s a ugenics desiple, what’s us all in the stone age…

Shit, figured it out…your civil servants..

Like little beging dogs, wagging your tail for a milk bone.

#55 Mark on 12.03.15 at 8:12 pm

” Any word if they are “ALL IN” and poised to make a fortune against a CDN housing crash?”

Short of short-selling a few companies involved in RE supply and the private sector mortgage insurers, what viable instruments are there to hedge a Canadian housing crash other than not being a participant?

Long CAD$ to benefit from the deflation?

#56 MSM-Free Zone on 12.03.15 at 8:12 pm

#9 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 7:12 pm
Aggred

Full force T2 communism coming like a hurricane
_________________________

Often, it takes a little legislation to force a conscience and common sense onto those who were born without any (can you say Bre-X, Enron, Lehman Bros, Ford Pinto, Volkswagen, etc ?)

More like socialism, not communism.

#57 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 8:13 pm

Johnny Cash on the buds, drinking double JDs, where else, three times a week now..Senica bitches…

Garto knows why…

#58 LJ on 12.03.15 at 8:14 pm

Has anyone done the math on how much fossil fuels our leaders, Notley and T2, have expended since taking office? It surely looks like T2 has been using up his Carbon allotment in record time, flying all over the globe to talk about people burning fossil fuels.

And, the biggest question of all: Why are the politicians so against an element on the periodic table? What did it ever do to them, except provide the building blocks of life? Why don’t they pick on another element? (Guess that having a Scandium tax wouldn’t quite work out so well for government coffers.)

#59 Ralph Cramdown on 12.03.15 at 8:15 pm

#228 SWL1976 — “If you could please explain to us all why the US Federal Reserve has never been, nor ever will be audited […]”

So what you do is you try Google, like this:
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=federal+reserve+audit

Hey presto! The Fed gets audited every year by an independent firm that isn’t allowed to do any other work, to avoid conflicts. Last year it was Deloitte, and you can read the audit. In addition, the GAO/the Comptroller General of the US audit various aspects of Fed operations, and those reports are also public.

More tinfoil?

#60 not 1st on 12.03.15 at 8:15 pm

Garth, maybe its time you stopped naval gazing the fed and read what citibank wrote this week.

Actually I think listening to what the Fed says trumps reading what is written about it. — Garth

#61 MSM-Free Zone on 12.03.15 at 8:15 pm

“….We’ve now learned that hike-the-down movement originated within the Department of Finance, and was presented to the hapless Joe O earlier in the year. Not in possession of balls of steel (and facing an election), Joe nixed the idea as too explosive and unpopular……”
_________________________

Always figured that guy for an ideologically-blinded, over-lobbied jellyfish. Thanks for confirming it.

#62 bb on 12.03.15 at 8:16 pm

Cmon guys. Moving season is over. Not a lot of buyers during fall and winter. We wait for spring season then demand will start to rise again.

#63 Ronaldo on 12.03.15 at 8:22 pm

#2 bdy sktrn on 12.03.15 at 7:01 pm

”climate change is diverting billions away from efforts to reduce real pollution”

The real pollution is what is being spewed by the real estate boards and so-called economists across the country. When this bubble bursts there will be more than manure hitting the fan. Our economic climate will be in for some big changes in the very near future.

#64 rk usa on 12.03.15 at 8:25 pm

can’t see this down payment tweak having much effect it it is graduated

first 500K at 5% = 25K

over 500K but less than 700K = 200K at 7% = 14K

total 39K under proposal vs 35K current

put that 4K difference on my VISA

ineffectual tinkering

#65 Bobby McLeir on 12.03.15 at 8:27 pm

#45, Great Comment.

Also, Has anyone see the documentary posted a couple days ago on Vimeo, Blue beats Green. Documenting the Green Movement and what it is doing to the USA? Great informative video, but their YouTube Account was shut down. For those looking for an alternative perspective to the Big Green Machine, definitely worth taking a look at.

#66 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 8:27 pm

#55 MSM-Free Zone on 12.03.15 at 8:12 pm
#9 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 7:12 pm
Aggred

Full force T2 communism coming like a hurricane
_________________________

Often, it takes a little legislation to force a conscience and common sense onto those who were born without any (can you say Bre-X, Enron, Lehman Bros, Ford Pinto, Volkswagen, etc ?)

More like socialism, not communism.
….

Is that what you think…

Google, Gerard Butts, Mauris Strong…

Justina and wynnes hero….

They should all be locked up as domestic Economic terrorists.

#67 When will they raise rates? on 12.03.15 at 8:28 pm

Excellent post today Garth!

It appears to be actually happening now… Everything is lining up perfectly for this correction to kick off. Oil, the Loonie, the Canadian economy, Canadian debt load, demographics, RATE INCREASE (crossing fingers), and now this, the Libs pouring cold water on RE? Wow, someone wake me up!

I hope everyone is liquid and has their powder dry… The next couple of years will be EPIC.

#68 Ronaldo on 12.03.15 at 8:28 pm

#3 Guy on 12.03.15 at 7:03 pm

”First?

I can’t wait to see the Canadian dollar fall, maybe then people will wake up!”

Well, its down close to 40% since I bought my stash of US dollars back in May of 2011. I would say that’s pretty down. I will probably cash some in come December 16th. after it falls some more.

#69 PeterfromCalgary on 12.03.15 at 8:32 pm

Is this increase in down-payment going to apply to entire mortgage or just the amount over $500000. So if you buy a house with a $600,000 mortgage will you need a down-payment of ($500,000 x 5%) + ($100,000 * 7%) = $32000 or will it be $600000 * 7% = $420000.

The later is easier to calculate but harder to pay.

#70 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 8:32 pm

There are a few islands that are mutall agreed in the event of thermo nuke war off the target list, for the families of those in power..

I’m moving soon..

#71 SWL1976 on 12.03.15 at 8:32 pm

#58 Ralph Cramdown – My appologies about the audit Ralph

However your google search did revel this

http://www.sott.net/article/250592-Audit-of-the-Federal-Reserve-Reveals-16-Trillion-in-Secret-Bailouts

Couldn’t resist the tinfoil could you

#72 Leo Trollstoy on 12.03.15 at 8:36 pm

In Vancouver the local board reports sales were up 40% from last November and the price of a detached home jumped 22% to $1.226 million. In Toronto, the average for a detached is now $1.08 million, up almost 9%, while it was “the best November ever.” This should be all the proof Morneau ever needed to take away the booze.

Canadians shoulda been cut off a decade ago. Ridiculous prices increases have characterized YYZ and YVR forever.

End it already.

#73 rk usa on 12.03.15 at 8:38 pm

re mortgage tweak, maybe it will work in conjunction with mortgage rate rise

#74 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 8:41 pm

#70 SWL1976 on 12.03.15 at 8:32 pm
#58 Ralph Cramdown – My appologies about the audit Ralph

However your google search did revel this

http://www.sott.net/article/250592-Audit-of-the-Federal-Reserve-Reveals-16-Trillion-in-Secret-Bailouts

Couldn’t resist the tinfoil could you
….

One of the goals of the educational industrial complex is to make people feel afraid of judgement.. fit in at all costs so to speak.

Obviously I was a bad student..

I oun the biggest bad ass tin foil fadora in the world. I proudly wear it..

#75 Darryl on 12.03.15 at 8:42 pm

40 Love my Kia on 12.03.15 at 7:51 pm

I think you finally got the timing right on this one Garth.

Now the million dollar question, where are the opportunities? (apart from vulching real estate).

No one has any money, anywhere (Canada or US). Maybe stock in my favorite grocery store, No Frills.——————————————————————

I think No Frills is part of Loblaws.

#76 When will they raise rates? on 12.03.15 at 8:45 pm

So, let me get this straight, the Libs of all people, are attempting a controlled demolition of RE? And are planning on blaming it on Harper? Delicious!

I must admit, I got goosebumps reading todays post. Like an early Christmas gift. =D

#77 Estrella on 12.03.15 at 8:45 pm

Of those 300 something visitors to Paris on tax payer money, includes at least one nanny!

Meanwhile in Canada articles are flying about how changes to tax structure will actually cost the country more money as the 1% run for cover, and the money loss from the highest percentile of tax base (the middle class) is not enough to balance itself. Go figure!

#78 Only-inflation-to-reduce-debt-burden on 12.03.15 at 8:46 pm

Wow….. for at least 5 years now Garth and his followers (you) have been preaching the mantra, “sell your homes and buy an equity-bond mix”. For 5 years I’ve been reading how the many here have taken this advise and perhaps made 7% on the cash received from these sales. So lets say you took the $ 100 G from the $500 G sale and made the $7,000 per year of which you would have to pay tax on……. How does that even remotely compare with the value of that $500 G home now selling well over $1 million with zero tax as it is a principle residence….

I believe I’ll continue to see those waiting for the collapse wait some more as interest rates test a .1% increase in 6 month intervals for perhaps 6 increases.

No shock here,,, and didn’t Poloz recently state that Canada would be taking a diverging path instead of following the States????

Gains like that have occurred only in small pockets of the country, and are illusory until crystallized. Financial asset gains, meanwhile, are real and liquid and can also come tax-free, without leverage risk. Nonetheless, it’s not a contest. The main message here is one of balance. Anyone with a one-asset strategy is courting serious risk. — Garth

#79 Darryl on 12.03.15 at 8:49 pm

#50 Valley Girl on 12.03.15 at 8:07 pm

This is the first time I’ve ever seen you use a ‘bad’ picture. That someone would think it is more important to snap a ‘cute’ photo rather than getting the dog off of the obviously distressed child is pathetic . . . and heartbreaking.
————————————————————-

Oh ma gawd Vall . The kid looks fine . Gag me with a spoon . Fa sure fa suuuure .

#80 amazon girl on 12.03.15 at 8:50 pm

Garth , I notice the right corner of the page …
Turner Investments Congratulations
by the way you look terrific in yellow tie….

#81 Love my Kia on 12.03.15 at 8:51 pm

Why not use pictures of cats?

Not the ones threatening to claw your eyes out though.

#82 Freedom First on 12.03.15 at 8:51 pm

Climate change conference. Meanwhile, there is countries where the pollution is so bad in their major cities that it looks like a really really foggy day on a sunny day. Gets so bad some days the Gov’t closes down every factory possible plus all the schools and tells everyone to stay indoors if at all possible.

Millions are now dying every year in the world from this polluted air, and millions more are getting ill from it.

This is for the idiot dickheads that know nothing about science. The pollution is made up of molecules that are blown world wide by the wind. Breathe deeply.

Interesting to see the sales of large SUV’s and trucks increase when gas prices are low. Denial will not save people.

#83 Victor V on 12.03.15 at 8:51 pm

#54 Mark

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/u-s-short-sellers-betting-on-canadian-housing-crash-an-accident-waiting-to-happen

“All of the big global macro funds that were involved in betting against the U.S. in 2007 and 2008 and 2009, they’ve all studied Canadian housing for a few years,” said the Canadian analyst, who asked not to be named because of client confidentiality. “I know a number of them are shorting Canadian housing. It looks like an accident waiting to happen.”

This is although housing markets in Vancouver and Toronto have continued to rocket higher since international short-sellers started circling in 2013.

Short sellers use complex financial arrangements to make rapid profits when publicly traded stocks fall in value. In this case, they are betting against businesses connected to property and household debt. They are also betting against the Canadian dollar, because they believe it will decline significantly in a housing bust.

Most of these traders are employed by secretive New York investment funds that shy away from publicity, partly because they want to disguise how they lay their bets.

#84 Maket Man on 12.03.15 at 8:51 pm

TRT
I agree.

Why won’t they just say min 10% for everyone?.
They want to look like they are trying

Who’s buying a million dollar home with 5%????
It’s a joke

#85 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 8:53 pm

#76 Estrella on 12.03.15 at 8:45 pm
Of those 300 something visitors to Paris on tax payer money, includes at least one nanny!

Meanwhile in Canada articles are flying about how changes to tax structure will actually cost the country more money as the 1% run for cover, and the money loss from the highest percentile of tax base (the middle class) is not enough to balance itself. Go figure!
….

The 1% have loot because, well they’re smarter that the 99%..Perhaps smart is the wrong word. They can spot bull shit, cause they are bull shutters.

You poor 99% ers. Teacher beat the bull shit gene out of you..they wanted you to be an honest forklift driver.

What did you expect to happen.

#86 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 8:54 pm

I’m so hammered, where is my room

#87 Victor V on 12.03.15 at 8:56 pm

#63 rk usa

1) policy change
2) property tax increase (John Tory re: Toronto)
3) provincial land transfer tax (Wynne)
4) higher fixed mortgage rates
5) higher variable mortgage rates
6) job insecurity / loss
7) higher cost of living

Perhaps after 17 years of real estate bull market, there are some headwinds finally coming for YVR and 416?

#88 Valley Girl on 12.03.15 at 8:56 pm

We’re both distressed.

#89 amazon girl on 12.03.15 at 9:04 pm

Amazon girl to Smoking Man #69

With are the islands?

#90 Darryl on 12.03.15 at 9:04 pm

#69 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 8:32 pm

There are a few islands that are mutall agreed in the event of thermo nuke war off the target list, for the families of those in power..

I’m moving soon..
=———————————————————–

Pelee Island ?

#91 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 9:06 pm

#81 Freedom First on 12.03.15 at 8:51 pm
Climate change conference. Meanwhile, there is countries where the pollution is so bad in their major cities that it looks like a really really foggy day on a sunny day. Gets so bad some days the Gov’t closes down every factory possible plus all the schools and tells everyone to stay indoors if at all possible.

Millions are now dying every year in the world from this polluted air, and millions more are getting ill from it.

This is for the idiot dickheads that know nothing about science. The pollution is made up of molecules that are blown world wide by the wind. Breathe deeply.

Interesting to see the sales of large SUV’s and trucks increase when gas prices are low. Denial will not save people.

I use to like you..Thought you where smart.

Strong when to China, plotted with them to take us down. Cause he showed his evil hand.

There is a war going on in the middle east..it’s all about having access to sell oil..

We here, are bent over, Co-operating , sign me up for poverty, my teachers said it would be cool and acceptable behaviour… Long live Al Gore..

#92 Vancouver Xmas Special on 12.03.15 at 9:06 pm

Vancouver gingerbread house listed for $4.5 million on Craigslist

http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2015/12/gingerbread-house-vancouver-craigslist/

Hurry! it will be gone by January!

#93 common sense on 12.03.15 at 9:09 pm

Smokie..the world is your room….

And Garth….Our regards for your free advice always but risk is very, very different for everyone.

Glad you care but, to each their own…

#94 ANON on 12.03.15 at 9:12 pm

Not to quibble, but rates will not be willingly increased, nor will restriction regulation be introduced by anyone. The awakening at the top happens all by itself, always. Fast. The machine, it is us.

#95 Mark on 12.03.15 at 9:13 pm

“Initial Jobless Claims: +9K to 269K, vs. 269K consensus,260K prior.

Continuing Claims +6K to 2.16M vs. 2.15M (revised) prior.

US “Jobless Claims” miss (not in a good way) expectations.

Not a spectacular miss, but certainly strikes at the narrative that the US economy is improving and ‘ready’ for policy rate hikes.

#96 suede on 12.03.15 at 9:15 pm

The min down payment will not curb much.

parents will just give their kids 25k for a condo. Peanuts to all those ewuity riding millionaire bpomer parents.

And ross kays stats are correct. But the house horny dont care for stats. They care for global bc, 24 hours and metro. If the listing doesnt sell, they relist, sell and brag how they made 100k.

party might be close to over but the fat lady hasnt sung.

and no that cliche is not gemder neutral

#97 BC Guy on 12.03.15 at 9:16 pm

OPEC meets tomorrow (Friday) to decide the price of oil.

This will potentially have a bigger effect than the Fed tinkering with rates by 1/4 or 1/2%.

That was referenced here three days ago. But thanks for the reminder. — Garth

#98 TRT on 12.03.15 at 9:18 pm

The 383 people are there to get a piece of the higher carbon tax you will pay.

A friend of mine is there hoping to get ‘grants’ to educate the general public (specifically immigrants in various languages) on how they can reduce their carbon footprint.

This whole sham is about taxation. It will hit the poor the hardest. Nothing to do with climate change.

#99 TRT on 12.03.15 at 9:23 pm

April said:

“We here think #18 is always trying to pump up the market —wonder why??!!!”

———————–

So..you really think people buy $1 Million homes with 5-10% down?

Good for you for thinking for yourself. :S

#100 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 9:24 pm

Your hammerd out of your mind, watching porno on your phone, drunk and wobbiling and no chance for a happy ending.

A hot young hot millenial chic next to you says, cool can I see.

What the fk happened to humanity..

Note to my sons, never get married..

Christ, back in the day…you had to give up a diamond ring to get a French kiss.

Progress I guess…

#101 amazon girl on 12.03.15 at 9:26 pm

Amazon girl to Smoking Man #69

Where are those islands ?

#102 Nagraj on 12.03.15 at 9:27 pm

We learn in today’s post that several days ago the chief economist of a big bank (a man whose name must not be spoken) had lunch with Mr. Morneau somewhere in Switzerland.
We also learn that a mere two days ago the story broke that –
And we learn that this masked bank economist luncheon partner confirms . . .

Where did this informative lunch happen? In secret in the back room of a “disreputable” bar? Presumably they had lunch in full public view in a nice restaurant, and we may be sure that Mr. Morneau would not have said anything he wouldn’t want publicized.

So: what’s the chief bank economist’s name, who proposed the lunch meeting, and what was on the menu? (Do you have to fly to Switzerland to satisfy a sudden craving for fondue?)

How sacerdotally hush hush can economic policy get?
Bad enough that people lined up in a bank tend to whisper and look like they’re in a line-up either for the confessional or communion. Let’s not elevate bankster types to the priesthood of the pyramids . . . salami salami baloney.

If you call an experienced, respected Phd economist a ‘bankster’, I think less of you (than I did). — Garth

#103 Retired Boomer WI on 12.03.15 at 9:29 pm

Took a walk through the beaten down ETF’s during the last 2 hours of trading today. Bought the IT., and telephonic ETF and some more RE ETF’s. Bargain, or falling knife? I don’t know, but I have sold the last of my cheap stocks bought in early Sept during the market rout at a decent profit. What else really matters? If I screwed up, there is more cash where that came from, ‘play Misty for me’ say the retired boomer…

In the long run we’re all dead.

#104 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 9:30 pm

DELETED

#105 Washed Up Lawyer on 12.03.15 at 9:32 pm

Oil patch HAM related. Not real estate HAM.

“Institute statistics show Chinese investment in Alberta peaked at nearly $20 billion in 2013, fell to $1.6 billion in 2014 and is at $921 million so far this year”.

http://calgaryherald.com/business/energy/survey-shows-lower-support-for-chinese-energy-investments-in-alberta

Which is exactly the meaning of the Chinese Curse “May you live in an interesting time of buyer’s remorse.”

#106 Ralph Cramdown on 12.03.15 at 9:33 pm

#70 SWL1976 — “However your google search did revel this http://www.sott.net/article/250592-Audit-of-the-Federal-Reserve-Reveals-16-Trillion-in-Secret-Bailouts

And how many ways is that article wrong? It claims “$16,000,000,000,000.00 had been secretly given out to US banks and corporations and foreign banks everywhere from France to Scotland.” I don’t know about you, but I take the word GIVE to mean gift unconditionally, but these programs were mostly repos (collateralized loans of cash against securities) and the securities were often government bonds or those of the GSEs (Fannie, Freddie etc.). Sometimes they were trashier.

Also, I take the word SECRET to mean without telling anyone. The Fed was public and open about these activities, as their whole point was to get credit markets unfrozen, meaning get banks and lenders believing that their counterparties weren’t going to go broke.

Here’s the breakdown:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/60553686/GAO-Fed-Investigation#outer_page_144
Here’s what those programs were:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_responses_to_the_subprime_crisis
Here’s me commenting on a few of those programs in March 2008. I’m no insider, so they obviously weren’t secret:
http://archive.hoocoodanode.org/node/2765/index.html#comment-145372

But it makes for a much better conspiracy if the Fed SECRETLY GAVE trillions away, doesn’t it? The article is aimed at people who weren’t paying attention at the time, and won’t be bothered to fact check now. But they sure can get outraged quickly.

I’m done, tinfoil.

#107 Kenchie on 12.03.15 at 9:34 pm

#25 Broke Dick on 12.03.15 at 7:34 pm
“Toronto – 75.1% of all listings failed to sell-GT, RK

This stat includes of course houses that were listed late in November and not accepting offers until some time in Dec.

Doom and gloom.”

It also includes houses listed in October and September that haven’t sold… Probably longer too. Houses don’t sell very quickly a lot of the time.

#108 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 9:35 pm

#102 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 9:30 pm
DELETED

I guess, time for night, night..

You beauty bearded bastard rebal…

I hate your guts….

#109 Tiger1960 on 12.03.15 at 9:37 pm

Smoking man 85 !
It’s the one that says exit,

#110 bigtowne on 12.03.15 at 9:39 pm

All levels of government need revenue….provinces or federal or municipal they all require revenue from their taxpayers. Bombardier is getting largesse big time from the Quebec provincial government and they too at some point will anticipate some revenue in return.

Our officials are in Paris to join in the climate crisis we face. If there is a jurisdiction in the world that can pump out a POLITICALLY CORRECT OIL it has to be oil. With the face of REAL CANADA and our aboriginal people and our hi tech and our extreme respect for women there is no way Saudi Arabia can up us. We are the chosen people but only if we remember to support our oil industry and talk up our story. We have the best story in the world and it is worth repeating.

#111 Washed Up Lawyer on 12.03.15 at 9:42 pm

I neglected to mention that the CNOOC acquisition of Nexen ($15 Billion) is not part of the $20 B in 2013. That disaster occurred in 2012.

#112 Shirley valentine on 12.03.15 at 9:44 pm

#88 amazon girl on 12.03.15 at 9:04 pm
Amazon girl to Smoking Man #69

With are the islands?
—–
Hey back off b..

He’s all mine that studly beast of a drunken man. Soon to be a billionaire romance novelist!

#113 OXI in GREECE on 12.03.15 at 9:44 pm

#209 Big Dipper on 12.03.15 at 3:32 pm
#195, OXI in GREECE on 12.03.15 at 2:01 pm

“All you need to do is look at some as simple as:
man made CO2 per year – 75 giga tons
active volcanoes CO2 per year – 900 giga tons ”

————————————

Crap, you’re right OXI! How could those stupid climate scientist overlook something as simple as that! Obviously it’s a global conspiracy driven scam!

But wait! You neglected to give a reference, or a source, for these remarkable numbers. Could you please provide? And I mean real numbers from real scientist and not from the pseudoscience, conspiracy theory based, nut case sources you climate change deniers like to quote from.

Thanks!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

http://www.drtimball.com

You mean a REAL scientist like Dr Tim Ball? Phd in Climatology. THAT kind of scientist? The kind of scientist the Govt and Media will not touch with a -30 degree Celsius pole because he proves in his book that Global Warming/Climate Change is bunk?

THAT KIND OF SCIENTIST MR DIP?

We can’t WAIT for your rebuttal…..

#114 Squish on 12.03.15 at 9:44 pm

#18 TRT on 12.03.15 at 7:20 pm
“10% down for homes over a million?

Zero effect on market. As if people buy $1 million homes with 10% down and finance $900,000.

This is hot air. Those with official mortgage stats know this.

Trying to ‘talk down’ the market. Sound familiar?”
——-

It says min. 10 percent down for houses over 700 grand, actually. CMHC doesn’t insure houses over a million.

#115 Patrick on 12.03.15 at 9:45 pm

#81 Freedom First on 12.03.15 at 8:51 pm

Millions are now dying every year in the world from this polluted air, and millions more are getting ill from it.
This is for the idiot dickheads that know nothing about science. The pollution is made up of molecules that are blown world wide by the wind. Breathe deeply.
_____________________________________

Smog-free summers are becoming the norm in Toronto (link below). Could be from shutting down the coal plants or de-industrializing the rust belt. But China’s smog and air quality issues aren’t crossing the Pacific. Forcing more environmental regulation and carbon tax on Canadians won’t accomplish anything over there.

I think it’s a good thing that Toronto’s air quality has improved. But that doesn’t mean we need to jump all over MORE green energy, MORE enviro regulation. why can’t we have a little balance? Enviro’s looking good, lets try and get industry some breaks. Compete with China for some factories.

This country is so ideological on so many issues. We get caught up in various ruts and just drive them into the ground. We want clean air in Ontario? De-industrialize the whole province! Solar panels everywhere!

http://www.citynews.ca/2015/12/03/trending-are-police-officers-responsible-for-the-climate-of-mistrust-in-toronto/

#116 Tiger1960 on 12.03.15 at 9:46 pm

Smoking man 85 !
They just up graded you to the looser room in the basement , I’m shire you will be at home there!
Take exit and then jump inside the staircase and then wait for your arrival !

#117 Thebarold on 12.03.15 at 9:46 pm

Why not establish a Canadian firpta?

#118 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 9:47 pm

#108 Tiger1960 on 12.03.15 at 9:37 pm
Smoking man 85 !
It’s the one that says exit,

I responded to

#100 amazon girl on 12.03.15 at 9:26 pm
Amazon girl to Smoking Man #69
Where are those islands ?

Got deleted responding to #69, I’m not going to risk #85

Till tomorrow, I need to sleep..
Fking addiction to this pathetic blog..

#119 Madcat on 12.03.15 at 9:51 pm

Downpayments should be blended as follows:

5% Down on first 200k
15% Down on second 200k
20% On third 200k
Everything 600k and over 25% Down.

#120 Popeye The Sailor Man on 12.03.15 at 10:03 pm

#63 rk usa on 12.03.15 at 8:25 pm
can’t see this down payment tweak having much effect it it is graduated

first 500K at 5% = 25K

over 500K but less than 700K = 200K at 7% = 14K

total 39K under proposal vs 35K current

put that 4K difference on my VISA

ineffectual tinkering
_________________________

Also CMHC will not cover a mortgage over 1M anyway they require a larger down payment already to get it under 1M.

Like 1.2 M will require 200K or 17% Down, 1.3M will require 300K or 23%, and 1.4M will require 29% and so on. The most effected homes will be in the 700K to 1M range.

#121 Kenchie on 12.03.15 at 10:03 pm

#31 Bram on 12.03.15 at 7:36 pm
“>Vancouver – 72.81% of all listings failed to sell

Garth,

Where is the source for that?
Because that is not what CTV is reporting.
I quote:

“The ratio of sales to home’s available for sale reached 44 per cent in November, which is the highest it’s been in our market in nine years.” – CTV.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/november-home-sales-in-vancouver-up-40-per-cent-from-year-ago-real-estate-board-1.2683835

I’m not sure what they mean by “Active Listing”. But here’s the link to the listing numbers:

http://www.rebgv.org/sites/default/files/REBGV%20Nov%202015%20Stats%20Package%20Final.pdf

Number of Listings YTD to Nov 2015:
Detached – 22,265
Attached – 8,446
Apartment – 23,467

Number of Sales YTD to Nov 2015:
Detached – 13,160 (59.1%)
Attached – 5,337 (63.2%)
Apartment – 12,503 (53.3%)

Total = 31,000/54,178 = 57.2%

So looking at 11 months of data shows it’s not as bad as Ross Kay is suggesting. That said, it may be very bad if the denominator excludes properties the 2nd and 3rd listing of a property after they get taken off the market and relisted at a lower price.

That seems to be correct – old relistings are counted as fresh ones. It makes it impossible for consumers to gain the kind of insight Kay provides. — Garth

#122 Squish on 12.03.15 at 10:08 pm

#25 Broke Dick on 12.03.15 at 7:34 pm
“Toronto – 75.1% of all listings failed to sell-GT, RK

This stat includes of course houses that were listed late in November and not accepting offers until some time in Dec.

Doom and gloom.”

__________

If your statement is true, then would be equally true that the stat would also include homes listed in late *October* and not accepting offers until some time in November (the month in question). So, a wash, in terms of your point.

#123 Popeye The Sailor Man on 12.03.15 at 10:08 pm

Actually once your in the 20% down your lender can offer a conventional Mortgage. But the CMHC chart shows rates for financing over 65% see link

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/co/moloin/moloin_005.cfm

#124 april on 12.03.15 at 10:09 pm

#98 – No, I think a 5% downpayment on $500 and over is ridiculous. Why don’t they make it 10% to 20% and be done with it.

#125 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 10:15 pm

#109 Shirley valentine on 12.03.15 at 9:44 pm
#88 amazon girl on 12.03.15 at 9:04 pm
Amazon girl to Smoking Man #69

With are the islands?
—–
Hey back off b..

He’s all mine that studly beast of a drunken man. Soon to be a billionaire romance novelist!

Nothing more frightening to a real man than a woman you don’t know that wants to devour you.

Real Men want woman they can save from evil, it’s how we are wired. The pink shirt downtown boys don’t count.

Selection pool, looking empty…

Progress….

#126 Fuzzy Camel on 12.03.15 at 10:25 pm

2016 will be quite the year.

#127 Leo Trollstoy on 12.03.15 at 10:31 pm

#118 Madcat on 12.03.15 at 9:51 pm

JT is attempting to guide housing gently lower, not drive it into a brick wall.

#128 RayofLight on 12.03.15 at 10:35 pm

The irony of T2’s pledge for action against climate change is Canada stands to benefit from global warming. Canada has vast acreage of land currently unsuitable for growing crops because of the short growing season. The higher concentrations of CO2 could also enhance the growth of cereal crops. Global warming has the potential to make Canada a grain producing super star. We would had the arable acreage and the supply of fresh water to grow the crops. Russia, Greenland, Iceland, Alaska and the Scandinavian counties could similarly benefit. The lower 2/3 rds of the US could be a barren desert, but then we could have unit trains of grain, not oil, going south. Not all change has to be bad.

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2007/04/global-warming-who-loses-and-who-wins/305698/

#129 Herb on 12.03.15 at 10:38 pm

#37 Ken,

two “anecdotes” since no one has offered any information in response to your question:

1. We bought our first house in 1982 largely because – get this – it had an assumable mortgage of 10%! (The house was $105 K, and we had a downpayment of $35 K. It did have a park-like corner lot, and we did well selling it seven years later.)

2. A year or two later, a colleague lost $20 K on his $80 K townhouse because he had to sell on posting. (No reimbursement by an employer in those days.)

#130 SWL1976 on 12.03.15 at 10:44 pm

#105 Ralph Cramdown – You’re right Ralph.

The transfer of 16 Trillion of public debt to private banks and institutions is totally legit when you consider the GFC which no one at the Fed seen coming?

I knew your rebuttal would have 2008 in it

16 Trillion seems fair

SM – I wear my tinfoil proud as well, and have been called every name under the sun when it comes to conspiracies.

I’ve also learned that tinfoil for most is code for change the subject please

#131 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 10:46 pm

I’m back in the losers lounge, senica chairmen club..

Amazing how a 200 lbs 6 foot 1 man can consume.

Had like 10 pinos and 10 double jds

I need a buzz to sleep, arthritis is bad tonight.

Any suggestions….?

#132 will on 12.03.15 at 10:47 pm

I’ll believe rates went up maybe a year or two after they GO up.

#133 TurnerNation on 12.03.15 at 10:49 pm

Sneaky at The Keg? Credit card machine when you are entering tip amount saying Tip % is based on after-tax amount

Kanada. ..home of the $30 burger fries and single pint combo?

Shareholders’ bonus.

#134 VB on 12.03.15 at 10:49 pm

Dylan,

Come gather ’round people
Wherever you roam
And admit that the waters
Around you have grown
And accept it that soon
You’ll be drenched to the bone
If your time to you is worth savin’
Then you better start swimmin’ or you’ll sink like a stone
For the times they are a-changin’

Come writers and critics
Who prophesize with your pen
And keep your eyes wide
The chance won’t come again
And don’t speak too soon
For the wheel’s still in spin
And there’s no tellin’ who that it’s namin’
For the loser now will be later to win
For the times they are a-changin’

Come senators, congressmen
Please heed the call
Don’t stand in the doorway
Don’t block up the hall
For he that gets hurt
Will be he who has stalled
There’s a battle outside and it is ragin’
It’ll soon shake your windows and rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changin’

Come mothers and fathers
Throughout the land
And don’t criticize
What you can’t understand
Your sons and your daughters
Are beyond your command
Your old road is rapidly agin’
Please get out of the new one if you can’t lend your hand
For the times they are a-changin’

The line it is drawn
The curse it is cast
The slow one now
Will later be fast
As the present now
Will later be past
The order is rapidly fadin’
And the first one now will later be last
For the times they are a-changin’

#135 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 10:52 pm

#129 SWL1976 on 12.03.15 at 10:44 pm
#105 Ralph Cramdown – You’re right Ralph.

The transfer of 16 Trillion of public debt to private banks and institutions is totally legit when you consider the GFC which no one at the Fed seen coming?

I knew your rebuttal would have 2008 in it

16 Trillion seems fair

SM – I wear my tinfoil proud as well, and have been called every name under the sun when it comes to conspiracies.

I’ve also learned that tinfoil for most is code for change the subject please
..

Nothing in the world worth saving more than your tin foil hat.

Be strong….. give no shit..

Building 7..

Those bastards should hang…

#136 TomasG. on 12.03.15 at 10:54 pm

#130 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 10:46 pm

I’m back in the losers lounge
———–
Sounds about right.

#137 Ronaldo on 12.03.15 at 10:56 pm

#37 Ken on 12.03.15 at 7:49 pm

”Question: Garth (Anyone) I am wondering if any of you that lived through the 80’s with high interest rates and the crash of 1987 could add any direction in how severe people think this housing correction may be in comparison to the 80’s era? What I understand is household debt and home prices were not as severe as what we see today. Does anyone have any thoughts on what kind of % we could see in this correction? Greatly Appreciated”

I recall that period of time very well as I started building my dream home in March of 79 at which time interest rates on a 4 yr closed was around 10.5%. Inflation for the 1st quarter that year ran at 13%. We had high unemployment and I remember that the tradespeople I had contracted were very eager to get to work and bidding was very competitive. As a result, building costs for labour was very good. Materials however was a different story. Luckily I locked in my mortgage for 4 yrs in March at 10.5% as the 5 year rate jumped to 14% by fall of that year when I obtained my final inspection and mortgage. Rates continued to increase as Paul Volcher the Fed Chairman was determined to wrestle inflation to the ground. A year later things got very nasty and construction came to a halt and the lumber markets were hit hard. Logging contractors were falling like flies and the banks had no mercy for them and many small contractors lost their equipment to the banks. Unemployment was extremely high. Strikes were commonplace as companies and the civil service bargaining for higher wages to try and keep up with inflation. By summer of 83 mortgage rates rose to around 23% and people were still scrambling to get mortgages fearing that rates would go higher. Real estate began a slide with an average home in a northern BC city dropping 35% by 1984. By the end of 4 years, my mortgage renewal was at 14% and rates remained high for quite a while later.

Then we had the 90s recession and another real estate bubble and crash and prices dropping back to the 1984 levels in some northern cities with prices not recovering until around 2005. A twenty year drought. Keep in mind that average house prices at the peak still only represented about 4 times for one income. So, given the outrageous levels in places like Vancouver and Toronto, 35% would not surprise me in the least as this would only bring prices back to the 2006 level and still 10 times plus average family income. Incredulous.

#138 Bram on 12.03.15 at 10:56 pm

#120 Kenchie on 12.03.15 at 10:03 pm

“That seems to be correct – old relistings are counted as fresh ones. It makes it impossible for consumers to gain the kind of insight Kay provides. — Garth”

Even with a different counting method, you still cannot ignore the part where it says:

“the highest it’s been in our market in nine years.”

So using the R.E.B. method, sales to listings is at a high. The R.E.B. may not be 100% trustworthy, but I take their word over that of a random ex-realtor any day. The board data and Kay’s data don’t agree. My bet is that Kay’s is way off.

The random ex-realtor’s site is RossKay.com. Judge for yourself. — Garth

#139 Shirley valentine on 12.03.15 at 10:59 pm

#130 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 10:46 pm
I’m back in the losers lounge, senica chairmen club..

Amazing how a 200 lbs 6 foot 1 man can consume.

Had like 10 pinos and 10 double jds

I need a buzz to sleep, arthritis is bad tonight.

Any suggestions….?
————-
Back already. Oh you are a big studly man. Baby, we need to take a plasma nozzle trip round the universe. Nothing shrinks in that world.

#140 Bill Gable on 12.03.15 at 11:09 pm

Looks like the Recession and/OR the Internet/ smart devices are eating old media for lunch:

Thought I would throw that on the fire – check the numbers!

Some examples of the decline in the third quarter:

• Time Inc. sales down 13.1 percent, revenue off $11.3 percent.

• Hearst sales down 21.9 percent, revenue off 20.3 percent.

• Wenner Media, publisher of Rolling Stone, down 15.9 percent, revenue off 15.1 percent.

• Conde Nast sales down 9.3 percent, revenue off 7.2 percent.

Link: http://tinyurl.com/nkodc45

#141 Nagraj on 12.03.15 at 11:15 pm

Re GT’s reply to my comment #101 in which I – somewhat injudiciously – said “bankster”.
Okay, okay, let’s leave out the st and just say banker.

– but I did get the idea that Mr. Morneau was having an impromptu apres-ski fondue tete-a-tete with the Lone Ranger in a scenic and secluded Swiss Alpine hamlet . . . the post did not identify the (still incognito) chief bank economist (which was my main objection) and this masked Mr.X was not described as an experienced respected PhD economist whom you hold in high regard. Even if my Lone Ranger is an accomplished honest fellow, we do have a tendency to ueber-respect folks in finance, do we not.
Why not just say Mr. Morneau was in Switzerland on business and met with Mr. So’n’so of Such’n’such at The SwissGuardsDiner to quasi-publicize a new down payments policy while chompin’ Spaetzle with Schabziger. Why cloak this in a numinous shroud of mystery?

But if it’s salve to your soul, let me swear up and down that I shall never use “bankster” again as long as I live.

Which gets us to St. Bernards. Had one on the family farm when I was a teenager. Our neighbour had dug a little lake, EVERY time I went in the water the dog would try to pull me out. First he’d stand at the water’s edge and bark alarmingly, and if I didn’t come out he’d go in and brutally fetch me. I didn’t have the heart to scold him for this.

[As for “blesser dans son amour propre”, my amour propre aint easily blessered.]

#142 Call me a skeptic on 12.03.15 at 11:24 pm

#129 SWL1976 on 12.03.15 at 10:44 pm

#105 Ralph Cramdown – You’re right Ralph.

The transfer of 16 Trillion of public debt to private banks and institutions is totally legit when you consider the GFC which no one at the Fed seen coming?

I knew your rebuttal would have 2008 in it

16 Trillion seems fair

SM – I wear my tinfoil proud as well, and have been called every name under the sun when it comes to conspiracies.

I’ve also learned that tinfoil for most is code for change the subject please
*************

Massive rains and floods in India, massive smog in China… all the same week as Paris climate talks.

No way this is a coincidence. Geoengineering at its best. Tax the western plebes.

#143 No debt on 12.03.15 at 11:29 pm

Freedom first -what is your net worth?
Must be piles for a single lonely man!

#144 TurnerNation on 12.03.15 at 11:38 pm

When’s HydroOne (H.TO) dividend yield to be known?

Only chance we proles have. On the workers’ backs.

#145 For those about to flop... on 12.03.15 at 11:41 pm

#130 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 10:46 pm
I’m back in the losers lounge, senica chairmen club..

Amazing how a 200 lbs 6 foot 1 man can consume.

Had like 10 pinos and 10 double jds

I need a buzz to sleep, arthritis is bad tonight.

Any suggestions….?

////////////////////////////////////
Joking Man……how about sticking your finger in to the power socket.That will give you a long sleep maybe even a permanent one.Good night Princess .

#146 TurnerNation on 12.03.15 at 11:43 pm

Taste is priceless
Price is tasteless.

#147 Ex-Cowtown on 12.03.15 at 11:48 pm

CO2 is NOT A POLLUTANT.

If it was you would die of your own exhalation. CO2 level in atmosphere? 400 parts per million.

CO2 in your exhalation? 4000 parts per million.

CO2 is as much a pollutant as rainwater is.

Foolish gullible idiotic politicians.

#148 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 12.03.15 at 11:48 pm

Garth,
Usually you mention that a balanced portfolio saves you on big down days. Today foreshadowed what may come as in stocks down, prefs down and safe stuff bonds crushed because they are all way over priced. Oh, and for good measure the US $ crushed.

You crush easily. — Garth

#149 april on 12.04.15 at 12:11 am

#137 – Anyone who puts total trust in the real estate board is “way off”.

#150 45north on 12.04.15 at 12:12 am

First, that storied interest rate increase is a done deal.

Second, this means mortgage rates will be rising.

Third, down payments are climbing.

fourth oil is down

taken together this is a very big deal

how is the government going to regulate foreign buyers? right now there is a seller and a buyer. They make a deal, it’s a sale. Knowing the government, they are going to come up with a form with the question: are you are foreign buyer? It’s going to take them a year to come up with the form ( it has to be bilingual ). not only that they have to come up with a registry ( the foreign ownership registry/ enregistrement étrangé ) there has to be a data base, means an IT team, there has to be provincial liaison. management co-ordination, communication team. Years in the making. Serious cash. Serious delays. If you’re a real estate agent just trying to keep up the lease on the audi, there’s no good news. gun registry part deux

#151 The American on 12.04.15 at 12:13 am

Canada: The vey definition of the land of denial, an economy that continues to tank, and very epitome of sub-prime lending practices. If I had a dollar (a USD, not a CAD) for every time I’ve heard how different it is there… LMAO Good luck!

#152 young & foolish on 12.04.15 at 12:14 am

Very telling ….. looks like we are finally going to get a housing slap down.

Great post Sir Garth!

#153 Cici on 12.04.15 at 12:15 am

#7 crossbordershopper

Wow, depressing…but kind of deep. I like it.

Go West…you might llke it. And if not, go somewhere else and keep searching until you do find that place you want to be. Above all, always go for adventure, you’ll never regret it.

And of course, “make money, pay less taxes and retire somewhere warm” is bang on. And yes, everybody’s got a loaded gun…but, never take a bullet for anyone.

#154 kommykim on 12.04.15 at 12:18 am

RE:

#54 Mark on 12.03.15 at 8:12 pm
Long CAD$ to benefit from the deflation?

Hahahahhahaha! You’re funny Mark!
Hahahahhahaha!
-Snort-
Hahahahhahaha!

#155 taxing thumbs on 12.04.15 at 12:32 am

What else wold you expect from a country that flew 383 people all the way to Paris for a climate change conference? –Garth”

That’s a whole lot of twiddling thumbs….

#156 Mark on 12.04.15 at 12:39 am

“how is the government going to regulate foreign buyers? “

Why regulate something that barely exists, and is negligible in the whole scheme of things? Do you really want a bunch of civil servants running around wasting the taxpayers’ money trying to ‘regulate’ foreign purchasers? And what about reciprocity? Canada is a long-term net accumulator of overseas assets. If Canada limits foreign ownership, we should accept no less from our trading partners.

“Hahahahhahaha! You’re funny Mark!”

There’s nothing funny about deflation, and the necessity of people short the CAD$ (ie: owning money on a mortgage) needing to cover their positions as the cost of carrying the short position rises.

Additionally, declining equity on a short position (ie: a mortgage) also forces short covering. Anyone who has traded stocks with leverage, long or short, should understand the concepts of short squeezes or a margin calls when it comes to the prices of securities. Conceptually the same occurs with currencies.

#157 Mark on 12.04.15 at 12:44 am

Err replace “accept” with “expect” in my previous post. Bleh, way past my bedtime tonight. Too much travel lately.

#158 Flint Flint Flint on 12.04.15 at 12:46 am

Garth

Just watched Our Man Flint….
I think the G-7 have a weather machine like Zowie in the movie, which they are using to cower the tax paying weak’uns into submission….we must overthrow this evil cabal….lead us from the darkness Sir….

#159 Gulf Breeze on 12.04.15 at 12:48 am

Smoking Man,

You mentioned CSIS was breathing down your neck recently.

I had no idea that they were engaged in covert operations to stamp out illiteracy.

BEE VARY CARFUEL. Woops, I ment KERRFULL!

Like Dud, er Dude Wot wood we dew withut yoo?

#160 Gulf Breeze on 12.04.15 at 1:03 am

#146 Ex-Cowtown

That was a brilliant treatise on climate change and the idiot gullible politicians who buy that wild assed theory that carbon emissions have anything to do with it.

And the oceanic methane released through complex processes related to climate change won’t be a problem either. I mean, we have all survived at least one fart in an elevator, right?

#161 kommykim on 12.04.15 at 1:17 am

RE:

#69 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 8:32 pm
There are a few islands that are mutall agreed in the event of thermo nuke war off the target list, for the families of those in power..

No place on Earth will be safe if a large scale thermo nuclear war breaks out. Slow death by radiation poisoning will be your fate and if you somehow manage to survive that with iodine pills, the nuclear winter will finish you off.

#162 OXI in GREECE on 12.04.15 at 1:21 am

#146 Ex-Cowtown on 12.03.15 at 11:48 pm
CO2 is NOT A POLLUTANT.

If it was you would die of your own exhalation. CO2 level in atmosphere? 400 parts per million.

CO2 in your exhalation? 4000 parts per million.

CO2 is as much a pollutant as rainwater is.

Foolish gullible idiotic politicians.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Not foolish. It is and always was about control and taxing people. We are at peak govt. At some point we will have a catalyst to end this. I dont know what or when but it will happen soon.

#163 Freedom First on 12.04.15 at 1:34 am

#90 Smoking Man

You misinterpreted my message. I will clarify. Individuals can be sane, but the human race as a species is insane. And they keep reproducing.

Majority are sleeping and not even aware of the Machine. The herd gets bankrupted in every country. Worse if they live in a poor country.

#164 kommykim on 12.04.15 at 1:38 am

RE:

#112 OXI in GREECE on 12.03.15 at 9:44 pm
http://www.drtimball.com
You mean a REAL scientist like Dr Tim Ball? Phd in Climatology. THAT kind of scientist?

Yea that guy. The guy that said this, “CFC’s were never a problem… . it’s only because the sun is changing.”
Jim Ball was a professor of geography at a Winnipeg university from 1988 to 1996. The University of Winnipeg never had an office of Climatology. His degree was in historical geography and not climatology. You mean THAT guy?

#165 The squeeze | Realties.ca on 12.04.15 at 1:41 am

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/12/03/the-squeeze/ […]

#166 Fact checker on 12.04.15 at 1:43 am

Garth, I’m with you most of the time. But Vancouver – 72.81% of all listings failed to sell, really????

Mr. Kay must’ve been smoking good old YVR fumes with his coffee this morning. Or maybe you missed the last part. “Vancouver – 72.81% of all listings failed to sell AT LISTED PRICE”. Try buying a house in Vancouver, at list price, I dare you.

#167 kommykim on 12.04.15 at 2:06 am

Tim not Jim in my post to OXI above.

#168 Freedom First on 12.04.15 at 2:19 am

#142 no debt

I’ve never had piles and I have no idea what lonely is. As for net worth yes I know what it is. I am satisfied.

I could be even better off but I choose to travel, a lot, ski, a lot, take golf holidays, a lot, plus much more. Sometimes I even have a woman come with me, if she can afford it. I remember one girlfriend who had just bought a new car, and when I told her I was going to Hawaii for a winter break, she asked if she could come with me. I said sure, but she said she could only come if I paid her way. I kid you not. One of the reasons why I’ve had to let every woman go, sooner or later. Too high risk. I’m nobody’s wallet.

#169 Tony on 12.04.15 at 2:37 am

Nothing in Markham, Ontario is selling. Its been like this for at least the past two months.

#170 DON on 12.04.15 at 2:37 am

#58 Ralph Cramdown on 12.03.15 at 8:15 pm
#228 SWL1976 — “If you could please explain to us all why the US Federal Reserve has never been, nor ever will be audited […]”

So what you do is you try Google, like this:
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=federal+reserve+audit

Hey presto! The Fed gets audited every year by an independent firm that isn’t allowed to do any other work, to avoid conflicts. Last year it was Deloitte, and you can read the audit. In addition, the GAO/the Comptroller General of the US audit various aspects of Fed operations, and those reports are also public.

More tinfoil?
***********************

Then again there have been episodes of wrong doing in other firms like KPMG, Author Anderson etc. Not tinfoil – human nature and what seems to be an eternal reality resulting from greed and lack of deterrent.

#171 Happy Fran on 12.04.15 at 2:52 am

Meanwhile in YVR – lowest price for 33 ft SFD was around $750k. Same time this year – about $1.1M. Up 46% YOY. This means approx 30% drop would only put us back to Dec 2014 prices.

I don’t see prices in YVR changing that much. If it drops more than 30% over the next 4 years – I’ll eat my shorts, Garth.

#172 Tony on 12.04.15 at 2:53 am

Re: #136 Ronaldo on 12.03.15 at 10:56 pm

I remember Oshawa, Ontario got hammered in the ’81 recession. Everything on the main street closed except the banks. Oshawa is one of the cities that even to today never recovered from the ’81 recession.

#173 Tony on 12.04.15 at 3:01 am

Re: #23 JSS on 12.03.15 at 7:29 pm

When the share price of a company falls in half and they raise their dividend 14 percent smart money heads for the exit door… fast.

#174 Get the CO2 Correct would you please... on 12.04.15 at 3:21 am

#112 OXI in GREECE, #209 Big Dipper on 12.03.15 at 3:32 pm
#195, OXI in GREECE on 12.03.15 at 2:01 pm

Get the numbers and reliable sources correct and the fundamental arguments:

Per Figure 7.3, IPCC AR4 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – the “official” world wide body on the topic, not something you Googled at hoc):

Man made CO2 = 29 gigatons/year (all of it)
Nature CO2 = 750 gigatons/year (all of it, not just volcanoes)

They, the “scientists”, believe only 40% of the 29 gigatons can be absorbed by nature.

They are worried the balance, 17 or so gigatons/year, may be the tipping point to global warming since historically Earth has never had such high levels of CO2 in the atmosphere as we have now (based on ice core samples dating back hundreds of thousands of years). Some argue Nature can absorb it all.

End Result:

No one knows what will happen since no one has been able to Model past warming/cooling cycles and predict them with certainty.

The Question:

If science cannot reliably model the past, what makes science believe it can model the future especially when it has no data in the past at the current levels of CO2 to model with?

The Answer:

Science is sounding the alarm bells due to the unprecedented amount of CO2 in the atmosphere – better to err on the conservative side, just in case, since science has no Model algorithm that works for reliable calculations/estimates.

The Naysayers:

There have been past warming cycles at or well in excess of what we have now and cooling cycles below what we have now with little incident (e.g., Halocene, Little Ice Age, Medieval Warming, post WWII cooling).

There it is, as simple as it can be. What is being published has way too much detail for the average 10 second MSM snippet (and its acolytes).

For example, have a go at this:

https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/spmsspm-human-and.html

In the end no one knows.

#175 cynically on 12.04.15 at 3:25 am

The realtors claim of a 40% increase in sales since last November with a 22% increase in price to an average $1,226,000 and the government flying 383 Canadians to Paris for the climate change conference whereas the US only 148 Americans ( population ten times ours) is understandable because this is Canada where lies and extravagance are par for the course as long as the sheeple put up with it.

#176 Vancouver takes off on 12.04.15 at 3:36 am

Not sure where you get that 77% are unsold
Been looking for a house for four weeks, everything I look at is sold in a week. All over asking.
So I am a reasonable person. Housing is booming here and the train will not stop. Because you have to,live somewhere and there is no more land.

#177 How Bad: #136 Ronaldo on 12.04.15 at 3:43 am

Very bad considering Calgary today worse off economically than in the early 1980s (lived thru that one, broke even on my home sale, everyone else I knew lost a ton of money).

Early 90s in Toronto which I lived thru as well (thank God I rented instead).

AND THE LITTLE YVR DROP of about SFH $100K in 2010-2011 which cost me about $50K on my home sale which all the optimistic YVR people posting here seem to have forgotten and ignore thinking it has always been up, up and up (means they are recent home buyers/sellers since then to ignore that fact):

https://vreaa.wordpress.com/2012/12/29/canadian-cities-inflation-adjusted-house-prices-1980-2011-annotated-chart/

http://moneytalks.net/article-and-commentary/todays-best-money-making-ideas/real-estate.html?start=20

#178 Surly Fred on 12.04.15 at 3:45 am

Canadian Minister defends the struggle and is begging reluctant Syrians to come to Canada. Are we that desperate we have have to drag people who are unwilling to come…just so we can make a show of our political largesse? What an embarrassment. The fact is that Muslims know that ‘Christians live in Canada’….they do not want to dwell among the unbelievers. Mr Mc Callum…stop trying to force the Liberal Village Concept on Canadians and Syrians….we don’t want to live together….get it through your thick skull. If they don’t want to come….let them decide….and it seems they have…..they do not want to come to Canada.

Tell ya what…..do what Rockefeller used to do and throw dimes at the bums out his limousine window.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/idea-that-refugees-not-interested-in-canada-is-crazy-immigration-minister-says

It’s probably gotten out in Syrian camps that our tax rates are over 50%.

#179 six-figure-renter on 12.04.15 at 4:40 am

take a look at this idiot

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/12/3/Toronto-condo-prices-could-soar-40-predicts-developer.aspx

what’s your take on this Garth?

#180 M on 12.04.15 at 5:54 am

..no rates raise..

and you Gartho baby will fight your inner desires to buy me another botle of finlandia :)

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-economy-idUSKBN0TL18F20151202#ZayG5Zlk7E25AeUW.97

..yes..rates WILL raise..driven by Mr Market in bonds.
Canadistan.. will make Ireland look like Cayman Islands.
At some point Yanks will have to go belly up but not yet..since they control the both ends of the trade

…now.. give us some babes baby.. String bikinis preferably :)

#181 Sam the Sham on 12.04.15 at 8:00 am

#143 TurnerNation

There is a sure sign Hydro One is getting ready to really soak everyone with massive rate increases to reward the rentiers who now own half of the company. The Ontario Energy Board is offering monthly rebates of between $30 to $75 on hydro bills of low income people. (Bad PR to have oldies dieing in their homes because the electricity was shut off).

#182 waiting on the westcoast on 12.04.15 at 8:17 am

The recent gains in Vancouver are getting so frothy, it is asking for a drop. I hate government involvement (on the way up by artificially lowering rates and easing regulations and now trying to force it down). If you look at everything in nature, there is a cycle and it seems that the more we resist or feel we can control it, the worse we make it. Reminds me of a business book from the nineties “Synchronicity” by Jawelski (I think).

In Uruguay now… For a pretty left leaning country, they are pragmatic. Currently going through a slump (both Argentina and Brazil are hurting). They do not restrict foreign land investment except if a foreign government is involved.

Lots of stuff for sale and like Vancouver lots of condos unoccupied. But it has obviously brought a lot of jobs and money into the economy over the 8 years since I was here last. Punta del Este is going vertical fast and a restaurant owner I chatted with said it has been slower in the last couple of years but still plenty of money from the jet set.

Met with a woman in Punta Del Diabolo who was actually featured on an HGTV show about house hunting beach towns. HGTV is everywhere. ;-). She is originally from London UK and owns property there and uses the rent to find her lifestyle here. Beautiful beaches but a little too far off the beaten track for me.

#183 Ralph Cramdown on 12.04.15 at 8:46 am

It turns out that it’s much more fun reading about paranoids than trying to reëducate one.

Try this, and compare to this blog’s sorry soup of claims on the Fed, aliens, contrails, the climate cabal, “Cultural Marxism,” Our Socialist President, big media homogeneity &c &c.

http://harpers.org/archive/1964/11/the-paranoid-style-in-american-politics/?single=1

Plus ça change… About the only improvement in 50 years is that most people understand that it’s socially unacceptable to publicly blame the Jews. Except over at Zeroedge.

#184 pbrasseur on 12.04.15 at 8:48 am

Garth – I guess the current 5% down payment requirement still applies to about 90% of the market, for the rest I doubt many transactions are made with only 5% down payment, so the effect is close to nil.

So basically this would be a minor event not worthy of some new found «respect» for T2. What such a half measure really shows in my opinion is how afraid the feds are to tackle that market. Raising everybody to 7%,on the way to 10, now that would be worthy of respect, only it’s probably too late for that since it would crash the market..

Anyway what will kill this market is jobs, inflation due to low CAD and higher rates. Later on ageing will finish the job. Lost decade (if not much more) coming up in Canada…

#185 Bottoms_Up on 12.04.15 at 8:52 am

#50 Valley Girl on 12.03.15 at 8:07 pm
——————————
If you think that’s bad you should google jimmy kimmel’s “i ate your halloween candy” parent gag on their kids.

#186 CJBob on 12.04.15 at 8:52 am

#21 Ken: My mortgage is up for renewal, so fixed or Variable?

It depends on your circumstances. The majority of the time if you go with a variable mortgage you will pay less interest over the life of the mortgage. If you can’t afford a big increase and can’t take the risk that go fixed.

http://www.moneysense.ca/columns/mortgage-terms-fixed-vs-variable/

#187 Herb on 12.04.15 at 9:03 am

#178 six-figure-renter,

merely another “prophecy” that the launcher hopes will fulfill itself.

#188 bb on 12.04.15 at 9:17 am

#178 six-figure-renter on 12.04.15 at 4:40 am

Classic pump and dump.

#189 Big Dipper on 12.04.15 at 9:20 am

#112 OXI in GREECE on 12.03.15 at 9:44 pm

#209 Big Dipper on 12.03.15 at 3:32 pm
#195, OXI in GREECE on 12.03.15 at 2:01 pm

“All you need to do is look at some as simple as:
man made CO2 per year – 75 giga tons
active volcanoes CO2 per year – 900 giga tons ”

____________________

As per the link below – Volcanic CO2 emissions are only a fraction of man-made emissions.

http://whatsyourimpact.org/greenhouse-gases/carbon-dioxide-sources

As per the controversial Tim Ball who is not a climatologist but a geography prof:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timothy_Ball

#190 Alistair McLaughlin on 12.04.15 at 9:32 am

I think a graduated down payment is a huge mistake. It will force buyers down market and hike demand for more modest homes, pushing them up to the $500K and $700K limits respectively. It will do nothing to ease the pricing pressure on the homes most of us buy – i.e. under $500K – while increasing demand in that segment by forcing many of the most reckless and greedy buyers “down market”.

When I buy a house, I most certainly will be looking for one sub-500K. (Easy in Ottawa.) Unfortunately, I will now be competing with some brain-dead idiots who feel entitled to a 600K house, but can no longer pull it off because it’s harder to come up with the extra 2%. (Don’t dismiss this – 2% of 600K is $12,000. BoMD might be generous, but not unlimited.) Forcing more demand into a specific segment can only have one effect on prices. And that segment just happens to be the one where most of us responsible types are looking to buy eventually!

Solution: Raise the down payment to 10% for everyone. Sadly, politicians and bureaucrats always chose complex, “nuanced” policies (no doubt backed by “data”) over sensible and simple responses.

#191 Tony on 12.04.15 at 9:34 am

November jobs report up 211,000 unemployment steady at 5.0 percent. Earnings up .2 percent and participation rate up .1 percent.

#192 Herb on 12.04.15 at 9:48 am

#160 kommykim,

there once was a fully-trained Nuclear Defence Officer who had fallen out of favour with our Air Force, so they gave him to me.

I told him to go away, crunch normal meteorological conditions, geography and population distribution etc. into a “clean” counter-force nuclear exchange between the Big Guys, and tell me what our part of the world would look like.

He came back three weeks later and gave me a hand-written report of about 10 pages and a couple of annotated maps. Oh man! Never had it typed up because I immediately limited distribution to my filing cabinet.

And that, Children, is why there has been no use of nuclear weapons. You see, the grown-ups may be devious Smoking Men, but they’re not that dumb.

#193 Victor V on 12.04.15 at 9:52 am

The U.S. added 211,000 jobs in November, clearing the way for a likely Fed rate increase this month

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/12/05/business/economy/jobs-report-hiring-unemployment-november.html?emc=edit_na_20151204&nlid=55717449&ref=cta&_r=0&referer=

#194 When will they raise rates? on 12.04.15 at 9:56 am

***JUST IN***

Nonfarm payroll employment beat expectations. (211K)

As Garth would say:

UP SHE GOES!

December looks like a done deal. (really this time)

#195 Because It's 2015 on 12.04.15 at 9:58 am

Yeah baby, 35K lost jobs, billions in new deficits, billions in new taxes and contributions to the UN slush fund.

And a failing RE market.

Canada is back baby!

#196 Scintilla on 12.04.15 at 10:02 am

#56 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 8:13 pm
Johnny Cash on the buds, drinking double JDs, where else, three times a week now..Senica bitches…

Garto knows why…
————–
Tell us something new Smoking Man. On this sounding board you’ve told us all of your family’s stories, names, your pets names, ups, downs, where you live, where you work, what you drive on the road and water, your dyslexia, alcoholism, wife’s gambling addiction, your way out prognostications and conspiracy tinfoil hat theories, and your fiction writing career. By the way truth is stranger than fiction! You are definitely strange. So sunshine stop telling us stuff we already know. Your so predictable, yes we know your at a casino every week you don’t have to tell us the details. Get back to forex trading already.
Oh and Gartho doesn’t give a dam and neither do we.

#197 noel on 12.04.15 at 10:04 am

A year ago you and all the banks were saying that multiple rate hikes in the US were inevitable (yes, I did go back in the archive and check – props to you keeping that open and available by the way), while that call is wrong, you may get the one hike.

That however may be fleeting. I saw the CIBC deputy chief economist speak at an event this month. He stated that he thinks the US should have raised rates months ago, but there is a strong risk that if the Fed does hike on the 16th and the S&P falls significantly in Q116 that they will not be hesitant to pull the O/N rate back to ’emergency’ levels again. Although the official CIBC call is for a few hikes next year, that screams toe the company line to me.

He also doesn’t think Toronto is at risk for a housing correction in the near-term. He knows his stuff. Here is a paper on why the condo market in YVR and YYZ is a source of strength in housing:

http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/if_2015-1026.pdf

#198 Bat Flipper on 12.04.15 at 10:13 am

Another 211,000 jobs all but guarantees a Fed hike

#199 When will they raise rates? on 12.04.15 at 10:24 am

In other news, OPEC agrees NO CUT IN OIL PRODUCTION.

Sub $40 oil in 2016, ladies and gents…

The dominoes are lining up.

#200 notagreaterfool on 12.04.15 at 10:25 am

Unemployment rate rises to 7.1% as 35,700 jobs shed

#201 Hope & Change (Canada) on 12.04.15 at 10:30 am

PS-> When you refer to a crumbling RE market, keep in mind that 90% of what is out there is complete garbage that only a millennial in denial would live in.

So yeah, no doubt that a time of reckoning will come for the 400sqft condo with no parking, facing the other 400sqft condo with no parking.

BUT, inventory that sits on land like townhomes, sfh, duplexes are in huge demand because they are not being built anymore. Certainly not in highly desired areas.

#202 Leo Trollstoy on 12.04.15 at 10:35 am

Boom

http://www.businessinsider.com/november-jobs-report-december-4-2015-12

#203 Hot Albertan Money on 12.04.15 at 10:42 am

November job #’s are in…

Canada -35,700
USA + 211,000

What a disaster

#204 Capt. Obvious on 12.04.15 at 10:42 am

The good ol USofA added over 200k new jobs in November, so definitely Janet has the green light. Nothing in the way of increasing now.

#205 Doug in London on 12.04.15 at 10:42 am

From all of the above, a reasonable person would conclude this is the time to be dumping, not buying, and that windfall capital gains in one of the bubble markets should be harvested. Fast.
————————————————————
Partly true. A sensible, reasonable person would have cashed in their winning lottery ticket by now sold their house, especially in the last 2 years when there was a shortage of listings. Don’t wait until a lot of people get the same idea and flood the market with listings. Aren’t you supposed to sell into strength and buy into weakness?

#206 Broke Dick on 12.04.15 at 10:47 am

It makes me laugh when I read some of the comments on here. People are wishing, yes wishing, that rates will go up, oil will stay low and so on just in hopes that house prices will drop and then they will comes in droves and “vultch” and then they will be happy.
Sad.

#207 Tony on 12.04.15 at 10:49 am

Canada loses 35,700 jobs in November, unemployment rate rises to 7.1 percent. Canadian dollar down about one-third of a cent.

#208 Dan on 12.04.15 at 10:55 am

Increasing down payments to 20% over $1 million didn’t kill the Toronto or Vancouver markets and this won’t either. It is prudent and reduces risk substantially; the best thing you can do is increase down payments.

The rapid growth of the subprime lending business, mostly feeding people who lack the 20% down on $1 million+ houses, demonstrates that your statement is incorrect. All we have done is increase prices and increase risk. — Garth

#209 When will they raise rates? on 12.04.15 at 10:56 am

#191 Broke Dick on 12.04.15 at 10:47 am

It makes me laugh when I read some of the comments on here. People are wishing, yes wishing, that rates will go up, oil will stay low and so on just in hopes that house prices will drop and then they will comes in droves and “vultch” and then they will be happy.
Sad.
———————

Guilty as charged.

#210 Ralph Cramdown on 12.04.15 at 11:21 am

#189 Alistair McLaughlin — “I think a graduated down payment is a huge mistake. It will force buyers down market and hike demand for more modest homes, pushing them up to the $500K and $700K limits respectively. It will do nothing to ease the pricing pressure on the homes most of us buy – i.e. under $500K – while increasing demand in that segment by forcing many of the most reckless and greedy buyers “down market”.

The assumption here is that house sellers have pricing power, and are willing to wait or not sell if buyers suddenly have less buying power. In some times and places, this may be the case. But in a balanced or buyer’s market, think of it more this way: Rank all the buyers by what they are willing and able to pay, and all the sellers by the asking prices on their houses. Match ’em up. The seller of the house ranked 249th gets what the 249th buyer is willing and able to pay. If you as a buyer have a bigger downpayment than some of those above you, you’ll move up in the rankings if DP requirements are increased.

(Yes this model has a lot of problems. But I’m trying to show how sellers’ prices are mostly not fixed if buyers’ spending power changes.)

#211 Ronaldo on 12.04.15 at 11:23 am

#169 Don –

”Then again there have been episodes of wrong doing in other firms like KPMG, Author Anderson etc. Not tinfoil – human nature and what seems to be an eternal reality resulting from greed and lack of deterrent.”

Like Nortel? In U.S., Madoff? He went years without the auditors discovering the whole thing was a pyramid scheme. Many, many more examples could be given.

#212 TurnerNation on 12.04.15 at 11:24 am

Cramdown if there isn’t a command and control hierarchical pyramid structure in our world – systematically dumbing us down, enslaving, and destroying our culture and countries – then you absolutely have nothing to worry about.

Total information awareness….

#213 Ronaldo on 12.04.15 at 11:26 am

#172 Tony on 12.04.15 at 3:01 am
Re: #23 JSS on 12.03.15 at 7:29 pm

”When the share price of a company falls in half and they raise their dividend 14 percent smart money heads for the exit door… fast.”

Exactly. Remember YLO (Yellow Pages).

#214 Renter's Revenge! on 12.04.15 at 11:27 am

#205 Broke Dick on 12.04.15 at 10:47 am
It makes me laugh when I read some of the comments on here. People are wishing, yes wishing, that rates will go up, oil will stay low and so on just in hopes that house prices will drop and then they will comes in droves and “vultch” and then they will be happy.
Sad.

You might be right about a few people here, but they’re a little lost. I think most us just want to pay a reasonable price for our shelter and get on with our lives, and not fund someone else’s retirement while becoming a slave to the bank in the process.

Also, an end to the insanity, house lust and one-up-manship between friends, coworkers and relatives would be nice.

Also on the wishlist for the more rational among us:
Progress toward a more balanced economy with happy, productive, innovative people instead of swinging between episodes of dependence on resource extraction and house renovations and episodes of crushing the value of the dollar to boost exports while destroying people’s savings through inflation. You know, a country and an economy that Canadians can actually be proud of.

Anyways, the best revenge is a life well lived, right? Maybe that involves vultching for some. So be it.

#215 cramar on 12.04.15 at 11:35 am

#89 Darryl on 12.03.15 at 9:04 pm
#69 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 8:32 pm
There are a few islands that are mutall agreed in the event of thermo nuke war off the target list, for the families of those in power..
I’m moving soon..

=———————————————————–
Pelee Island ?

————–

No way! Pelee is within sight and downwind of two U.S. nuclear power plants!

===============

#100 amazon girl on 12.03.15 at 9:26 pm
Amazon girl to Smoking Man #69

Where are those islands ?

—————

New Zealand and French Polynesia.

#216 Ronaldo on 12.04.15 at 11:39 am

#189 Alistair M.

”Solution: Raise the down payment to 10% for everyone. Sadly, politicians and bureaucrats always chose complex, “nuanced” policies (no doubt backed by “data”) over sensible and simple responses.”

Yes. But that would make too much sense and keep in mind that the ‘Bank of Ma and Pa’ is still alive and well.

#217 noel on 12.04.15 at 11:46 am

The rapid growth of the subprime lending business, mostly feeding people who lack the 20% down on $1 million+ houses, demonstrates that your statement is incorrect. All we have done is increase prices and increase risk. — Garth
______________________

I have heard from mortgage brokers that I know that the ‘subprime’ lending market is mostly for the self-employed and people who want to take out a second mortgage – people who have money but aren’t approved by big lenders.

It is not the same as the fraud in the US circa 2006.

Subprime does not = ‘fraud.’ Nor did the US market crumble solely because of illegal activity, but rather rampant real estate speculation, over-borrowing and a slide in economic activity. Sound familiar? Today a large number of people are borrowing to top up deposits on properties which do not qualify for CMHC insurance as they are over the $1 million mark. Previously documented here. — Garth

#218 Ralph Cramdown on 12.04.15 at 11:48 am

#211 TurnerNation — “Cramdown if there isn’t a command and control hierarchical pyramid structure in our world – systematically dumbing us down, enslaving, and destroying our culture and countries – then you absolutely have nothing to worry about.”

Dude, I just asked my cellphone how many base pairs are in the human genome, and got a remarkably detailed response almost instantly. If you and yours are actually getting dumber in this amazing era we’re living in, it’s nobody’s fault but your own.

#219 A Yank in BC on 12.04.15 at 11:55 am

All green lights. Go Janet go!

#220 SWL1976 on 12.04.15 at 12:00 pm

#182 Ralph Cramdown – The very term reeducation implies that the brainwashing was not sucessful the first time around

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reeducation

I think a smart guy like yourself should set the bar a little higher

I have always enjoyed your often liberal view posts. However, I like a good debate more, a mental spar if you will, to keep the gears turning upstairs. I just couldn’t let the loser comment slide, and look at where it took us.

I also like to rattle some cages to get people thinking about things they may have missed with their ‘education’ as well as engage in subjects to which we have been deliberately misled…

They are plentiful

#221 gut check on 12.04.15 at 12:05 pm

@ #217 Ralph Cramdown on 12.04.15 at 11:48 am
#211 TurnerNation — “Cramdown if there isn’t a command and control hierarchical pyramid structure in our world – systematically dumbing us down, enslaving, and destroying our culture and countries – then you absolutely have nothing to worry about.”

Dude, I just asked my cellphone how many base pairs are in the human genome, and got a remarkably detailed response almost instantly. If you and yours are actually getting dumber in this amazing era we’re living in, it’s nobody’s fault but your own.

***********************

Asking your cellphone a question is not intelligence, nor is the answer. Nor is relying on that answer. Nor is announcing your “superiority” based on the above.

Maybe the joke’s on me, though. Were you kidding? (irony on the internet is a difficult thing to intentionally pull off)

#222 Bat Flipper on 12.04.15 at 12:16 pm

Are this many people buying homes over 500k with less than 5% down payment. People with strong incomes and no savings? I don’t think so. I don’t think this will have much of an impact on anything really.

I think the rates will have a much harder impact as well as employment.

It is an amalgam of factors that will bring about change. As usual. — Garth

#223 Ralph Cramdown on 12.04.15 at 12:29 pm

#219 SWL1976 — “I like a good debate more, a mental spar if you will, to keep the gears turning upstairs. I just couldn’t let the loser comment slide, and look at where it took us.”

If you think I was exaggerating for comic effect when I used the word loser, when I said I’d looked at your website and that you were exactly the kind of crank I was talking about, when I suggested seeking professional help, or when I used the word paranoid, I assure you I was not. I apologize for being so blunt, but this medium tends to blunt many messages.

Throughout history, there have been a few people who were brilliant but [whetever today’s all encompassing but politically correct term for what used to just be called ‘crazy’]. I’m thinking people like Nicola Tesla, Paul Erdős and John Nash. THOSE people could wear their tinfoil hats proudly. However, statistically, you are probably not one of them. I’m not a head shrinker, and even if I was, diagnosing somebody based on a blog and a few typed exchanges is verboten. But I feel no desire to debate or spar mentally with someone whose connection to reality is apparently so tenuous. I have no idea whether your paranoia is of the type which eventually makes yourself a danger to yourself or others, but I strongly believe your life would be better if you took more of the world at face value, and believed less in grand conspiracies of world-controlling übermenschen. Find someone to help you with this.

#224 Squirrel meat on 12.04.15 at 12:58 pm

#219 SWL1976 — “I like a good debate more, a mental spar if you will, to keep the gears turning upstairs. I just couldn’t let the loser comment slide, and look at where it took us.”
———–
When you state your water meter is a plot to control your brain waves…and hear sounds in the clouds from all the HAARP weather geoengineering … well then dude your gears upstairs are clearly jammed.

#225 Ralph Cramdown on 12.04.15 at 1:01 pm

#220 gut check — “Asking your cellphone a question is not intelligence, nor is the answer. Nor is relying on that answer.”

It was a flip answer to a flip comment, but it contained some deep truths. The answer to that particular question is something nobody knew twenty years ago, hundreds of people were spending billions of dollars to find out ten years ago, and I can get instantly as a party trick today. Further, those base pairs and what they mean (which we’re working on) are, in many ways, an answer to the questions who are we, where did we come from and why are we here — questions mankind has been asking itself for millenia.

I have a complete disconnect with people who say modern society is being dumbed down. Compared to the apex when? Aristotle lived in a time when many Greeks were illiterate slaves (‘literally’). Ditto for Virgil’s fellow Romans. Our grandparents were uneducated country bumpkins (speaking for myself). We’ve never known more as a species, nor has it been easier for each of us to access that knowledge. Most people care more about who won last night’s big game, but that’s been true since Aristotle.

#226 TurnerNation on 12.04.15 at 1:11 pm

Ok Cramdown. For an end user their doctor simply will push the latest tested in 2nd/3rd world – data manipulated – drug! So, it’s a last mile issue. Knowledge vs power. Google away. Try to put it into action.
(Drugs being one of top world businesses, purveyors being higher up control pyramid.

#227 Chris on 12.04.15 at 1:21 pm

“The main message here is one of balance. Anyone with a one-asset strategy is courting serious risk.”

I agree with the balance issue. Any good current data about how many Canadians actually really truly have a “one-asset strategy”??

Home ownership rate: 70%. Mortgage debt: $1.3 trillion. Household debt-to-income: 164%. Underfunded TFSAs: 93%. Number of Canadians in trouble if mortgage payments increased $500: 42%. Get the drift? — Garth

#228 Bat Flipper on 12.04.15 at 1:27 pm

We have had an accumulation of reasons why people shouldn’t buy a home for awhile, yet homes still keep getting bought and sold. Anyone in their right mind would not buy, but people keep jumping into this overheated market, and there are lenders willing to help them out.

We have heard of analysts looking for a decline in markets anywhere from 10% to 60%, but the market keeps rolling on.

Will there be a single moment when default rates start to outweigh our banking system?

Could one province, Alberta, bring down the whole Canadian market with even more declining oil prices?

Forget defaults. Irrelevant. Watch sales and price trends. The slow draining away of equity will hobble the middle class. Drip, drip, drip. — Garth

#229 Not tonight honey on 12.04.15 at 1:27 pm

Ralph Cramdown (aka Professor Hinkle?)

Did you really go on buddy’s blog then scurry back to this Financial blog to ridicule him for his freedom to believe whatever the hell he wants to believe?
No one enjoys a bully.

Relax Ralph, it’s the holidays!! Christmas snow never melts!!

Here’s a warm-fuzzy-squishy ((hug)) just for you :-)

#230 saskatoon on 12.04.15 at 1:27 pm

#224 Ralph Cramdown

“I have a complete disconnect with people who say modern society is being dumbed down.”

oh!

the irony!

#231 SWL1976 on 12.04.15 at 1:35 pm

#223 Squirrel meat – You add very little to any meaninful debate here at all. Ever. Lemming.

#222 Ralph Cramdown – Being aware of what is really going on and being paranoid are to completely different things. I am aware. I am not paranoid.

Some of the most ‘sane’ people I know by your standards are the most delusionsl about reality. They also happen to be the most paranoid about understanding the truth.

Enjoy asking your smart phone questions.

What could go wrong with that application for seeking knowledge and truth on a massive scale?

#232 lee on 12.04.15 at 1:39 pm

Lanterra Developments says condo prices to go up 40% over next three years in downtown Toronto. It’s on BNN. There you have it. $600,000 average condo in downtown Toronto by 2018. This means average condo rents up to about $3,000 a month plus utilities.

Because a developer says so? And you buy it? — Garth

#233 Willy2 on 12.04.15 at 1:39 pm

– Nope. I still put my money on “No rate hike”. Because the US 3 month T-bill rate is still (way) below 0.25%.

#234 Leo Trollstoy on 12.04.15 at 1:40 pm

Forget defaults. Irrelevant. Watch sales and price trends. The slow draining away of equity will hobble the middle class. Drip, drip, drip. — Garth

It’s like the 90s all over again.

Any blog dogs remember when people were trying to get rid of Alberta homes for $1?

#235 Bottoms_Up on 12.04.15 at 1:47 pm

#211 TurnerNation on 12.04.15 at 11:24 am
—————————————————–
I guess “their” plan didn’t work too well on you then? ; )

#236 Bottoms_Up on 12.04.15 at 1:49 pm

#205 Broke Dick on 12.04.15 at 10:47 am
——————————————————
Yes — they think they are watching a show in the making. But the jokes on them.

#237 Bottoms_Up on 12.04.15 at 1:50 pm

#202 Hot Albertan Money on 12.04.15 at 10:42 am
—————————————————————
60 cent dollar here we come!

#238 Ralph Cramdown on 12.04.15 at 1:51 pm

The problem with conspiracy theories is that somebody ALWAYS talks. This has been true since three children shared a secret on the playground in grade one.

Famous talkers: Edward Snowden, Mehdi Hashemi, Deep Throat, Daniel Ellsberg, Aldrich Ames, Robert Hanssen, Kim Philby &c.

Poster ‘jess’ here posts many, many conspiracies that got busted.

But hey, maybe there are some that have managed to go decades or more, involving hundreds or thousands of people, with no leaks. I doubt it. But that’s what they’d want me to believe, isn’t it?

Google knows all. After looking up a few of the above, all I type in is E T H and it immediately guesses I’m interested in Julius and Ethel Rosenberg. I guess I’m on the list now, too? Dumbed down, my ass. The hive mind is going supercritical.

#239 pinstripe on 12.04.15 at 2:18 pm

The AB PCs and harpo CPC left a Big Mess.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/jobs-alberta-november-statscan-1.3350530

#240 IHCTD9 on 12.04.15 at 2:19 pm

#167 Freedom First on 12.04.15 at 2:19 am
… I remember one girlfriend who had just bought a new car, and when I told her I was going to Hawaii for a winter break, she asked if she could come with me. I said sure, but she said she could only come if I paid her way. I kid you not. One of the reasons why I’ve had to let every woman go, sooner or later. Too high risk. I’m nobody’s wallet.
___________________________________________

You know FF, if you’d like to shack up with a woman within the common law / marriage context, you can. All your concerns could be alleviated with a dose of discretion

Just follow this format:

1. The woman must make more than you.
2. The woman must have investments exceeding your own.
3. No kids past or future.

This would put all the feminazi legislation out there to work for you in the event of a breakup.

Think about it. This describes my relationship (less the kid stipulation), and I get meals, laundry, Christmas shopping and much more done to boot… :)

#241 Ralph Cramdown on 12.04.15 at 2:20 pm

#228 Not tonight honey — “Did you really go on buddy’s blog then scurry back to this Financial blog to ridicule him for his freedom to believe whatever the hell he wants to believe?”

Mental illness is no joke, especially the kind involving beliefs that the government is secretly poisoning its citizens, and acting on those beliefs to the extent of writing letters to said government. Some go on to act out violently. Getting help would probably improve Scott’s life regardless.

#242 IHCTD9 on 12.04.15 at 2:40 pm

Home ownership rate: 70%. Mortgage debt: $1.3 trillion. Household debt-to-income: 164%. Underfunded TFSAs: 93%. Number of Canadians in trouble if mortgage payments increased $500: 42%. Get the drift? — Garth
___________________________________________

Yikes! And now in November 35,700 more job flushed, unemployment rate up to 7.1, Moredough says forget about the 10 Bill deficit cap, OPEC is going to keep pumping, Loonie at .7470, more natural resource companies going into suspended animation.

All amid plans for importing 10’s of thousands of virtually unemployable immigrants at the cost of billions, carbon taxes, CPP increases, income tax increases that will probably reduce revenue, on and on.

Trudeux mania is going to come to a very abrupt end here shortly…

#243 Mark on 12.04.15 at 2:41 pm

“It is not the same as the fraud in the US circa 2006.”

Stated income fraud wasn’t really that much of a problem in the US “circa 2006”. As mortgage loans are written usually with respect to, and secured by the pledged collateral. Not with respect to the income of the borrower itself.

After all, jobs come and go. Divorces and other family nastiness comes and goes. However, equity is something that can always, assuming its meaningfully positive, be relied upon for repayment. Except that, in the cases of both the US loans, and the CMHC, equity is minimal to non-existent. The lack of equity, the fact that banks won’t accept the loans without some form of credit enhancement, is why loans with minimal downpayments are termed “subprime”. Simply not high enough in quality, as a loan, to qualify as ‘prime’ assets. The experience in the USA was overwhelmingly that equity was the single most valuable predictor of default. Which intuitively makes sense as nobody would rationally default on a mortgage secured loan if they could sell the property and redeem the mortgage loan.

#244 Mark on 12.04.15 at 2:45 pm

“All amid plans for importing 10’s of thousands of virtually unemployable immigrants”

I’m not sure why the Syrian refugees are being termed ‘unemployable’ by anyone. The whole idea that anyone is ‘unemployable’, nevermind an entire ethnic group determined to make better lives for themselves, is disgusting. Perhaps Garth can start cracking down on such a disgusting broad portrayal of the refugees as it is extremely racist and out of touch with reality.

#245 Ponies Pilatus on 12.04.15 at 2:47 pm

Cram,
According to the “illusion of knowledge” theory, Google indeed is making us dumber.
Without original research, we’re doomed to resurgitate “facts”.
Quality before quantity, always.

#246 saskatoon on 12.04.15 at 2:49 pm

#240 Ralph Cramdown

“Mental illness is no joke…”

oh!

the irony!

#247 OXI in GREECE on 12.04.15 at 2:49 pm

#163 kommykim on 12.04.15 at 1:38 am
RE:
#112 OXI in GREECE on 12.03.15 at 9:44 pm
http://www.drtimball.com
You mean a REAL scientist like Dr Tim Ball? Phd in Climatology. THAT kind of scientist?
Yea that guy. The guy that said this, “CFC’s were never a problem… . it’s only because the sun is changing.”
Jim Ball was a professor of geography at a Winnipeg university from 1988 to 1996. The University of Winnipeg never had an office of Climatology. His degree was in historical geography and not climatology. You mean THAT guy?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Being as you and Big Dip are such experts on the qualifications of “Climatology Scientists” perhaps you could give us your list of “experts” that does not include the likes of David Suzuki who is a “bug” scientist.

Did you just cherry pick Wiki? Since when can you not have multiple disciplines? He has a Phd in Climatology. Did you read Dr Ball’s book?

Kimmy you need some grease in your wanna be scientist arm-chair.

#248 Gerard Trump on 12.04.15 at 2:50 pm

DELETED

#249 Bram on 12.04.15 at 2:51 pm

There are some interesting comments on this blog, but the signal is drowned out by the noise from conspiracy theorists.

Can everybody please stop arguing with the crazies?

Just don’t go into conversations with any one who has ever mentioned chem-trails, mind control, shadow governments or alien abductions. And ignore climate change deniers.

The Canadian Economy is interesting enough on its own, don’t need to feed paranoid lunatics here.

#250 IHCTD9 on 12.04.15 at 2:54 pm

#230 lee on 12.04.15 at 1:39 pm
Lanterra Developments says condo prices to go up 40% over next three years in downtown Toronto. It’s on BNN. There you have it. $600,000 average condo in downtown Toronto by 2018. This means average condo rents up to about $3,000 a month plus utilities.
____________________________________________

What kind of lunatic would spend 600K on a steel box in the sky without a blade of grass to his/her name?

Seriously, if folks go for this; then GTA folks actually really are as stupid as I’ve been told.

40% appreciation in three years for a scrap bin in the sky?

This has to be a stupid test…

#251 Broke Dick on 12.04.15 at 2:55 pm

DELETED

#252 Ronaldo on 12.04.15 at 3:01 pm

#233 Leo Trollstoy on 12.04.15 at 1:40 pm
”Forget defaults. Irrelevant. Watch sales and price trends. The slow draining away of equity will hobble the middle class. Drip, drip, drip. — Garth”

”It’s like the 90s all over again.

Any blog dogs remember when people were trying to get rid of Alberta homes for $1?”

I remember in 2001 a town just north of Edmonton on way to Coal Lake were offering lots for 1 dollar if you moved and built a house there. I have a picture of the sign posted on entry to the town.

#253 IHCTD9 on 12.04.15 at 3:03 pm

#243 Mark on 12.04.15 at 2:45 pm
“All amid plans for importing 10’s of thousands of virtually unemployable immigrants”

I’m not sure why the Syrian refugees are being termed ‘unemployable’ by anyone. The whole idea that anyone is ‘unemployable’, nevermind an entire ethnic group determined to make better lives for themselves, is disgusting. Perhaps Garth can start cracking down on such a disgusting broad portrayal of the refugees as it is extremely racist and out of touch with reality.
____________________________________________

Ok, what are they going to do? The women probably weren’t even allowed to get an education back home, most will not speak English, I doubt we are getting plane load after plane load of rocket scientists here.

These folks are destined for unskilled labour positions – maybe a handful of skilled labour. These are jobs Canada is shedding more than any other right now.

If the above is so unbelievable, by all means please educate me as to what these folks are going to do to feed their 10+ person households…

#254 Ronaldo on 12.04.15 at 3:07 pm

#230 SWL1976 on 12.04.15 at 1:35 pm

”What could go wrong with that application for seeking knowledge and truth on a massive scale?”

It’s much simpler than dropping flyers from an airplane. If you get my drift.

#255 pwn3d on 12.04.15 at 3:16 pm

#146 Ex-Cowtown on 12.03.15 at 11:48 pm
CO2 is NOT A POLLUTANT.
If it was you would die of your own exhalation. CO2 level in atmosphere? 400 parts per million.
CO2 in your exhalation? 4000 parts per million.
CO2 is as much a pollutant as rainwater is.
Foolish gullible idiotic politicians.
————————-
Actually the politicians are smart, they are politicizing science to steal from the rich (people and nations) and give to the poor (themselves).

Next thing they will be saying how dangerous clouds are as water vapour is the biggest greenhouse gas and clearly a danger to the human race.

#256 Not tonight honey on 12.04.15 at 3:26 pm

Ralph Cramdown # 240
Mental illness is no joke, especially the kind involving beliefs that the government is secretly poisoning its citizens, and acting on those beliefs to the extent of writing letters to said government. Some go on to act out violently. Getting help would probably improve Scott’s life regardless.

////////////////////////////////

Really Ralph? Did you just throw out a medical diagnosis? Are you qualified to do so? I’m going to make an educated guess and say ‘no’ you’re not in any way qualified (guess what, I am qualified to DX). No qualified person in their ‘right mind’ would seriously diagnose someone via the internet nor would any decent person use a real name! I’m just wondering (since you assume him to be unwell and in need of ‘help’) if you make it a common practice to bully people with a disability?

Good luck to you Ralph.

Ps. Maybe Santa will bring you a shiny new history book for Xmas. A book that tells a little tale about government poisoning it’s own citizens (think Vietnam-agent orange as a widely accepted fact).

You may have the last word as I will not respond further in an effort to get back to the financial subject matters. My points (in case you missed it) were to please be nice(r) and stay a little closer to the financial topics at hand.

Happy Holidays! (I truly mean that, no spite intended)

#257 Drill Baby Drill on 12.04.15 at 3:30 pm

#243 Mark
Is this the same Mark who was temporarily banned from this blog a few months ago due to racists comments on foreign ownership ?

#258 BillyBob on 12.04.15 at 3:31 pm

#177 Surly Fred on 12.04.15 at 3:45 am
Canadian Minister defends the struggle and is begging reluctant Syrians to come to Canada. Are we that desperate we have have to drag people who are unwilling to come…just so we can make a show of our political largesse? What an embarrassment. The fact is that Muslims know that ‘Christians live in Canada’….they do not want to dwell among the unbelievers. Mr Mc Callum…stop trying to force the Liberal Village Concept on Canadians and Syrians….we don’t want to live together….get it through your thick skull. If they don’t want to come….let them decide….and it seems they have…..they do not want to come to Canada.

====================================

And 1.5 million Syrian Christians shake their heads.

Maybe it’s the ignorance and bigotry that scare them away?

#259 Vancouver lady on 12.04.15 at 3:33 pm

Our landlord sold our house on the Westside a few weeks ago. 100 people came to the open house. Multiple offers in a hour. Asking was 3.3M. Sold for 3.5M.
For Sale signs turn to Sold signs very quickly. No way sales are slow here.

You report as if this is a good thing. It is not. — Garth

#260 Hope & Change (Canada) on 12.04.15 at 3:37 pm

Ok, what are they going to do? The women probably weren’t even allowed to get an education back home, most will not speak English, I doubt we are getting plane load after plane load of rocket scientists here.

These folks are destined for unskilled labour positions – maybe a handful of skilled labour. These are jobs Canada is shedding more than any other right now.

I think that they’ll do what they’ve always done. Create businesses. Open restaurants, become plumbers, do trade. Sell stuff, buy stuff. This is in their blood.

We don’t need any more white collar paper shufflers with arts degrees anyways.

Actually, I’m sure most of them will do better than most Canadians over the next 20 years.

The real question is whether they will want to stick around to pay off our debt and our overly generous public service pensions at all levels of government.

#261 Hope & Change (Canada) on 12.04.15 at 3:44 pm

#238 pinstripe on 12.04.15 at 2:18 pm
The AB PCs and harpo CPC left a Big Mess.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/jobs-alberta-november-statscan-1.3350530

The story in 4 years will be how the NDP destroyed YET ANOTHER province.

When you’re flying a plane you can’t be blaming the mountain that’s right in front of you, on the previous pilot.

#262 TurnerNation on 12.04.15 at 3:45 pm

Maybe Bottoms Up. I ‘woke up’ on Sept 12th years ago.
Takes conscious and sometimes painful effort.
I don’t watch TV or movies other than what I see on in the gym.
Brain…use it or lose it? Thinking is not feeling is not reacting.

#263 turn of the tide on 12.04.15 at 3:46 pm

Anyone care to comment on this?

“Canada and the United States could soon be on divergent interest-rate paths.

Governor Stephen Poloz and his Bank of Canada colleagues kept the central bank’s benchmark overnight rate unchanged at 0.5 per cent Wednesday, extending a monetary policy pause just as the Federal Reserve prepares to push U.S. rates higher.”

Is Canada not following when the US rates rise?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/interest-rates/bank-of-canada/article27559287/

Our bond market will follow theirs, raising mortgages. The BoC will follow the Fed, but not until our economy stops sinking. — Garth

#264 Ralph Cramdown on 12.04.15 at 3:53 pm

#244 Ponies Pilatus — According to the “illusion of knowledge” theory, Google indeed is making us dumber. Without original research, we’re doomed to resurgitate “facts”.

But the net as a whole has been an almost incredible force multiplier for basic and applied research. It was only two decades ago that “getting published” meant being accepted for publication in a journal a year hence, which would be circulated to the recipients who could afford the $2,000 subscription fee, and reading that paper involved schlepping to your local university’s library. The average quality of published stuff was higher, but the quantity was a trickle, and the time lags were glacial.

One wonders about the interaction of the Illusion of Knowledge effect and the Dunning-Kruger effect.

#265 Nemesis on 12.04.15 at 3:53 pm

#ConspiratorialFridayMischief…

…”Mental illness is no joke, especially the kind involving beliefs that the government is secretly poisoning its citizens…”… …”The problem with conspiracy theories is that somebody ALWAYS talks.”… – RC

#FunnyYouShouldSayThat…

[Wikipedia] – Unethical human experimentation in the United States

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unethical_human_experimentation_in_the_United_States

#&Sometimes… #ReallyBigThingsRemainSecret… #WayLongerThanYou’dThinkPossible…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manhattan_Project

#TruthIsElusive?… #BeginHere

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epistemology

[NoteToGT: Just between the two of us, Aesthetics was really more my thing…]…

#266 saskatoon on 12.04.15 at 3:55 pm

#248 Bram

shadow government is very real:

“[W]e have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated, governments in the civilized world—no longer a government by free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and the duress of small groups of dominant men.”

– Woodrow Wilson

“The real menace of our Republic is the invisible government, which like a giant octopus sprawls its slimy legs over our cities, states and nation… ”

– New York City Mayor John F. Hylan

“The real truth of the matter is, as you and I know, that a financial element in the large centers has owned the government ever since the days of Andrew Jackson.”

— Franklin Delano Roosevelt

“Today the path to total dictatorship in the U.S. can be laid by strictly legal means… We have a well-organized political-action group in this country, determined to destroy our Constitution and establish a one-party state… It operates secretly, silently, continuously to transform our Government…”

– Senator William Jenner

“There exists a shadowy government with its own Air Force, its own Navy, its own fundraising mechanism, and the ability to pursue its own ideas of national interest, free from all checks and balances, and free from the law itself.”

– Daniel K. Inouye, US Senator

#267 TurnerNation on 12.04.15 at 3:56 pm

Everybody please GroupThink.

#268 Ralph Cramdown on 12.04.15 at 4:09 pm

#255 Not tonight honey — “Did you just throw out a medical diagnosis? Are you qualified to do so? I’m going to make an educated guess and say ‘no’ you’re not in any way qualified (guess what, I am qualified to DX).”

Already answered in #222. You’re not qualified either. Someone either has “freedom to believe whatever the hell he wants to believe” (your words) or there’s an objective standard for psychosis. Pick one, not to get all epistemological on you.

#269 noel on 12.04.15 at 4:09 pm

#242 Mark

Mortgage fraud was rampant and in my mind the driving factor behind the dramatic fall in US house prices. We don’t have that in Canada, there is much stricter regulation.

“The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission reported in January 2011 that: “… mortgage fraud… flourished in an environment of collapsing lending standards and lax regulation. The number of suspicious activity reports – reports of possible financial crimes filed by depository banks and their affiliates – related to mortgage fraud grew 20-fold between 1996 and 2005 and then more than doubled again between 2005 and 2009. One study places the losses resulting from fraud on mortgage loans made between 2005 and 2007 at $112 billion.”

“The prevalence of income overstatement is sometimes presented as evidence that borrowers cheated lenders. No doubt that happened in some cases. But it is not a likely explanation for the broad pattern. It is far-fetched to think that most borrowers would have known what lies to tell, or how, without inside help.

And mortgage companies had not only the means to orchestrate fraud, but they also had the motive. Mr. Mian and Mr. Sufi have argued in previous papers that the mortgage boom was driven by an expansion of credit rather than a rise in demand for loans. It makes sense that companies eager to increase lending would have also developed ways to manufacture ostensibly qualified borrowers.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/13/upshot/how-mortgage-fraud-made-the-financial-crisis-worse.html?_r=0

#270 SWL1976 on 12.04.15 at 4:18 pm

#240 Ralph Cramdown – You can officially cram it with that one Cramdown

You should have quit while there was still some mutual respect

Or perhaps I was the fool for thinking it was ever mutual

I am always intrigued by peoples reactions to my writings with regard to my observations of the world around me

How people react says a lot more about them than it does about me

Enjoy my blog Ralph, you do seem to be an avid reader of it

I may even do a blog post just for you

#271 Chris in Nanaimo on 12.04.15 at 4:19 pm

Conspiracies….

I’m really dumb as I’ve fallen for the following false flag op’s…

9/11
Sandy Hook
Boston Marathon bombings
Ottawa Shooting
Paris terrorist attack.
Plus a tonne of others

…oh and apparently NASA faked not one, but six moon landings!!!!

#272 Alvina Knows on 12.04.15 at 4:24 pm

#252 IHCTD9 on 12.04.15 at 3:03 pm

Ok, what are they going to do? The women probably weren’t even allowed to get an education back home, most will not speak English, I doubt we are getting plane load after plane load of rocket scientists here.

These folks are destined for unskilled labour positions – maybe a handful of skilled labour. These are jobs Canada is shedding more than any other right now.

If the above is so unbelievable, by all means please educate me as to what these folks are going to do to feed their 10+ person households…

====================================

Perhaps they would be more employable after acquiring double degrees at a well respected western Canadian university.

#273 Mark on 12.04.15 at 4:38 pm

“Is this the same Mark who was temporarily banned from this blog a few months ago due to racists comments on foreign ownership ?”

Nope, I slurred an immigrant doctor for portraying his presence in Canada as the savior of the Canadian healthcare system. Nothing to do with foreign ownership which, based on the evidence, I’ve always maintained is a statistically insignificant part of the market and have frequently expressed alarm at certain ethnicities being cast as ‘scapegoats’.

Anyways, not acceptable then, nor is claiming that Syrians are ‘unemployable’ in Canada acceptable now. In practice, I think you’d be amazed at how willing most immigrants are to work.

#274 Mark on 12.04.15 at 4:41 pm

“These folks are destined for unskilled labour positions – maybe a handful of skilled labour. These are jobs Canada is shedding more than any other right now.”

Actually you’d be surprised at the demand for “unskilled labour”. When I open the job websites, I see a heck of a lot more positions for cleaners, cooks, security guards, etc., than I do of higher-end white collar positions. And besides, with a good worth ethic, good diet, and determination, many of the refugees can learn the skilled trades just like Canadians. If there’s that much demand left for those roles, of course, as the economy turns down. But low-end jobs are abundant in Canada. Its the high end stuff that’s relatively scarce.

#275 Nagraj on 12.04.15 at 4:48 pm

not to disrupt the train of thought here . . .
(which is loaded up with jobs reports, and other such trifles . . . )
let me point out to the unwary
that the word “numinous” in my last post is not “luminous” with a typo, numinous derives from numen
(and Schabziger is not a beer but a cheese)

anybody watchin’ The Throne Speech?
if you’ve seen one Throne Speech, you’ve seen every Throne Speech, eh?

you’d think astute blogdogs (and GT) would be more focused on who’s really important, like Santa Claus

#276 Spaccone on 12.04.15 at 4:50 pm

#147 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 12.03.15 at 11:48 pm
as in stocks down, prefs down and safe stuff bonds crushed because they are all way over priced. Oh, and for good measure the US $ crushed.

===============================

I’ll preface to say that analogs are dangerous for portfolio health and I don’t know preferred history before mid 2007, but the panic selling looks very similar to 2009.

Right around now seems equivalent to Q1 2009 after which it just kept on rocketing up.

2008 selloff:
http://goo.gl/kCFmc6

2015 selloff:
http://goo.gl/gWl8JH

#277 young & foolish on 12.04.15 at 4:51 pm

“People are wishing, yes wishing, that rates will go up, oil will stay low and so on just in hopes that house prices will drop and then they will comes in droves and “vultch” and then they will be happy.”

That’s because for most people, nothing is more desirable than their own house! There will always be demand.

#278 Doug in London on 12.04.15 at 4:52 pm

@Sam the Sham, post #180:
Yes, we’re going to see an increase in our electric bills. How to deal with it? You should have bought renewable energy companies, that pay good dividends, like NPI, AQN, or CSE while they were still on sale. Want a hot tip? RNW pays a good dividend and is trading near its low.

@lee, post #231:
When I read that post, I felt the time tunnel pulling me in back to 1989. I see the whole Hydro Quebec grid going down because of the effects of a solar flare on those long transmission lines. I see the price of platinum suddenly spiked up when the news broke about cold nuclear fusion. How’s that clean up of the Exxon Valdez oil spill going so far? Bye, I’m off to 1989!

#279 Vancouver Lady on 12.04.15 at 4:54 pm

Our landlord sold our house on the Westside a few weeks ago. 100 people came to the open house. Multiple offers in a hour. Asking was 3.3M. Sold for 3.5M.
For Sale signs turn to Sold signs very quickly. No way sales are slow here.

You report as if this is a good thing. It is not. — Garth

—————————-

Just stating the facts. Not good for us at all. Our options are to continue getting evicted from rentals because they either sell or get torn down to rebuild, get into a bidding war, or leave Vancouver.

#280 JSS on 12.04.15 at 4:55 pm

#212 Ronaldo on 12.04.15 at 11:26 am
#172 Tony on 12.04.15 at 3:01 am
Re: #23 JSS on 12.03.15 at 7:29 pm

”When the share price of a company falls in half and they raise their dividend 14 percent smart money heads for the exit door… fast.”

Exactly. Remember YLO (Yellow Pages).

—-

Enbridge is NOT Yellow Pages. Shows how dumb some people are.

#281 Broke Dick on 12.04.15 at 5:10 pm

#250 Broke Dick on 12.04.15 at 2:55 pm
DELETED

Garth Deleted me for a sexist joke.
He’s getting soft in his old age.

Respect this blog or leave. — Garth

#282 cramar on 12.04.15 at 5:11 pm

#270 Chris in Nanaimo on 12.04.15 at 4:19 pm
Conspiracies….

….

…oh and apparently NASA faked not one, but six moon landings!!!!

———————

Plus NASA is faking all their climate warming data! At least that is what I have been told.

#283 young & foolish on 12.04.15 at 5:16 pm

” …. if the Fed does hike on the 16th and the S&P falls significantly …. ”

This is what I wonder about … huge debts everywhere have pushed up prices (not only in RE), and with higher rates money could be heading toward the exits.

The Fed hike has been fully priced into equities. — Garth

#284 kommykim on 12.04.15 at 5:20 pm

RE:

He has a Phd in Climatology. Did you read Dr Ball’s book?

He does NOT have a Phd in Climatology.

#285 Ralph Cramdown on 12.04.15 at 5:25 pm

#252 IHCTD9 — “The women probably weren’t even allowed to get an education back home […] If the above is so unbelievable, by all means please educate me as to what these folks are going to do to feed their 10+ person households […]”

It isn’t so unbelievable in the sense that there isn’t anywhere in the world fitting that characterization, but it does demonstrate a bit of ignorance and laziness. Syria was more of a secular dictatorship than a fundamentalist theocracy, and not dirt-poor, before its current travails. Meaning women went to school, there was a healthcare system, and families weren’t huge. 15 seconds at the CIA World Factbook says:
– 2.6 children born/woman
– Literacy (age 15 and over can read and write)
male: 91.7% female: 81%

#286 Ralph Cramdown on 12.04.15 at 5:30 pm

The Fed hike has been fully priced into equities. — Garth

I’ve come to the conclusion that nothing is ever ‘fully’ priced in. The probably is mostly priced in by most market participants, but there’s always a few who weren’t paying attention.

How many times have you seen a dividend cut on a stock that ‘everybody’ knew couldn’t maintain it, and the price took a tumble anyway?

#287 Ralph Cramdown on 12.04.15 at 5:36 pm

#269 SWL1976 — “You should have quit while there was still some mutual respect”

As long as there was, I hadn’t made myself clear.

#288 Chris on 12.04.15 at 5:43 pm

Any good current data about how many Canadians actually really truly have a “one-asset strategy”??

Home ownership rate: 70%. Mortgage debt: $1.3 trillion. Household debt-to-income: 164%. Underfunded TFSAs: 93%. Number of Canadians in trouble if mortgage payments increased $500: 42%. Get the drift? — Garth

Nope – Underfunded TFSA just means not maxed. 42% of Canadians “in trouble” if mortgage payments increased – I assume this is based on subjective poll, not actual data. Lets say I have 20 K left on a mortgage, have 100 K on the HELOC for a business investment and haven’t maxed my TFSA, but have 400 K in RRSP’s and non reg as well as business equity and work pension. On paper I look like your stats, but if rates go up a bit it won’t crush me – I won’t enjoy paying extra, nobody ever does, but payments will be fine. My question was, how many people really have a one asset strategy – I agree they could be in trouble, however I doubt there are actually many – probably just a small percentage of those who purchased in the past 2-3 years.

#289 vanreal on 12.04.15 at 5:47 pm

#258 Our landlord sold our house on the Westside a few weeks ago. 100 people came to the open house. Multiple offers in a hour. Asking was 3.3M. Sold for 3.5M.
For Sale signs turn to Sold signs very quickly. No way sales are slow here.

You report as if this is a good thing. It is not. — Garth

_____________________________________________

Or god forbid leave the west side. Unthinkable!!

#290 turn of the tide on 12.04.15 at 6:04 pm

@ #278 Vancouver Lady

Leave Vancouver!! Best decision my honey and I EVA made!! Never going back.

#291 Bottoms_Up on 12.04.15 at 6:13 pm

#255 Not tonight honey on 12.04.15 at 3:26 pm
————————–
Actually, a mental illnesses called ‘psychosis’ is the detachment from reality. Appears to be at least a few on here that could qualify for this diagnosis.

#292 amazon girl on 12.04.15 at 6:18 pm

Amazon girl to #214 Cramar
Thanks. I knew about the French Polynesia.
Beautiful place. I didn’t know about New Zeland.

#293 Nemesis on 12.04.15 at 6:25 pm

#FridayAfternoonNonsense… #The21stCenturyMagicEightBall,Or… #AllHailThe… #NewAgeBull****Generator…

http://sebpearce.com/bullshit/

#294 Not tonight honey on 12.04.15 at 6:34 pm

#290 Bottoms_Up on 12.04.15 at 6:13 pm
#255 Not tonight
———
Actually, a mental illnesses called ‘psychosis’ is the detachment from reality. Appears to be at least a few on here that could qualify for this diagnosis.

//////////////////////////////////////////

Sorry Bottoms Up, I’m not quite following you…..
I’m pretty familiar with the DSM, thanks though :-)

Cheers!

#295 Hope & Ruin on 12.04.15 at 6:52 pm

#259 Hope & Change (Canada) on 12.04.15 at 3:37 pm
Actually, I’m sure most of them will do better than most Canadians over the next 20 years.

The real question is whether they will want to stick around to pay off our debt and our overly generous public service pensions at all levels of government.
_______________________________________

Just reflect for a minute what somebody coming from that area of the world would think of the topics we discuss on this blog?

It is a sobering thought. Kind of gives some perspective. Refugees coming from a land where they could be killed, maimed, raped or starved any given day. To one where we bicker over who has a bigger pension.

#296 IHCTD9 on 12.04.15 at 6:52 pm

#284 Ralph Cramdown on 12.04.15 at 5:25 pm
#252 IHCTD9 — “The women probably weren’t even allowed to get an education back home […] If the above is so unbelievable, by all means please educate me as to what these folks are going to do to feed their 10+ person households […]”

It isn’t so unbelievable in the sense that there isn’t anywhere in the world fitting that characterization, but it does demonstrate a bit of ignorance and laziness. Syria was more of a secular dictatorship than a fundamentalist theocracy, and not dirt-poor, before its current travails. Meaning women went to school, there was a healthcare system, and families weren’t huge. 15 seconds at the CIA World Factbook says:
– 2.6 children born/woman
– Literacy (age 15 and over can read and write)
male: 91.7% female: 81%

——————

Of course, if you stop looking after you’ve validated your bias, you never get to see the flip side of the coin do you?

“Syria has a population of approximately 21 million people, and Syrian government figures place the population growth rate at 2.37%, with 65% of the population under the age of 35 and more than 40% under the age of 15.[6] Each year more than 200,000 new job seekers enter the Syrian job market, but the economy has not been able to absorb them.[51] In 2010, the Syrian labor force was estimated to total about 5.5 million people. An estimated 67 percent worked in the services sector including government, 17 percent in agriculture, and 16 percent in industry in 2008.[1] Government and public sector employees constitute about 30% of the total labor force and are paid very low salaries and wages.[6]

According to Syrian Government statistics, the unemployment rate in 2009 was 12.6%; however, more accurate independent sources place it closer to 20%.[6] About 70 percent of Syria’s workforce earns less than US$100 per month.[51] Anecdotal evidence suggests that many more Syrians are seeking work over the border in Lebanon than official numbers indicate.[51] In 2002 the Unemployment Commission (UC) was established, tasked with creating several hundred thousand jobs over a five-year period.[51] As of June 2009 it was reported that some 700,000 households in Syria – about 3.5 million people – have no income.[52] Government officials acknowledge that the economy is not growing at a pace sufficient to create enough new jobs annually to match population growth. The UN Development Program announced in 2005 that 30% of the Syrian population lives in poverty and 11.4% live below the subsistence level.[6]”

Such is the danger of being “lazy”, sounds pretty much as I expected…

#297 Ronaldo on 12.04.15 at 8:12 pm

#279 JSS

”Enbridge is NOT Yellow Pages. Shows how dumb some people are.”’

Takes one to know one.

#298 Vancouver Lady on 12.04.15 at 9:30 pm

#289 turn of the tide

Where did you move?

#299 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.04.15 at 11:08 pm

cram.

Sag mir wo die Philosopher sind.
Wo sind sie geblieben?
Einstein, Heissenberg und Suessenkind.
Ueber Ihre Graeber weht der Wind.

#300 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.04.15 at 11:11 pm

#274
you’d think astute blogdogs (and GT) would be more focused on who’s really important, like Santa Claus
—————-
But remember, before you get to Santa Claus, you have to get by Krampus.

#301 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.04.15 at 11:12 pm

Three hundreds !!!!!!!

#302 lee bow on 12.04.15 at 11:30 pm

Nobody knows the scale of events until they occur. CMHC stress tests they run are limited by imagination and job security.

Tru is making a wise thing by increasing the downpayments. A really bold move would be to carefully reinsure, privatize the CMHC. Would OTPP or OMERS buy some risk? Should have been done years ago.

One amazing thing is the hindsight.

#303 ARP on 12.05.15 at 8:23 pm

Bring on the garbage, bottom feeder lenders. This doesn’t even pass the sniff test, let alone due diligence.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-05/bankrupt-mortgage-lenders-unveil-zero-money-down-friends-and-family-mortgage

#304 gut check on 12.06.15 at 11:53 pm

#225 Ralph Cramdown on 12.04.15 at 1:01 pm
#220 gut check — “Asking your cellphone a question is not intelligence, nor is the answer. Nor is relying on that answer.”

It was a flip answer to a flip comment, but it contained some deep truths. The answer to that particular question is something nobody knew twenty years ago, hundreds of people were spending billions of dollars to find out ten years ago, and I can get instantly as a party trick today. Further, those base pairs and what they mean (which we’re working on) are, in many ways, an answer to the questions who are we, where did we come from and why are we here — questions mankind has been asking itself for millenia.

I have a complete disconnect with people who say modern society is being dumbed down. Compared to the apex when? Aristotle lived in a time when many Greeks were illiterate slaves (‘literally’). Ditto for Virgil’s fellow Romans. Our grandparents were uneducated country bumpkins (speaking for myself). We’ve never known more as a species, nor has it been easier for each of us to access that knowledge. Most people care more about who won last night’s big game, but that’s been true since Aristotle.

——————————————

Information does not equal knowledge

Ask your phone to show you Adam Curtis’ excellent series “The Century of the Self.” It’s really just some more information for you but it might be interesting to see if you get anything out of it.