Balls of steel

full size at http://www.reddit.com/r/funny/comments/svzth/i_give_you_my_karma_machines_pebbles_business_on/

When markets turn, they turn quickly. Investors with stocks, mutual or ETFs know that – which is why the smart ones have a balance among different assets classes. When some fall, others pop. But if you have all of your net worth in one thing, and you borrowed insanely to get it, Mr. Market can slay you. That’s worrying a lot of people in the shiny new T2 government.

To quickly follow on yesterday’s dismal post, consider this: last month in Calgary – the hottest housing market in the country two years ago – sales tumbled another 29%. The average price dropped more than 5% (even after the realtors fudged it). Listings shot 31% higher than a year earlier. Plus the length of time it takes to sell a house swelled 18%.

Even the local real estate board sounds defeated: “Calgary has continued to post job losses in the energy sector, unemployment levels are high, wages are down and recovery expectations have changed. All of these factors have contributed to the weak demand we have seen throughout the year.”

And this is just the start. Alberta real estate’s decline will likely pick up speed from here. Mr. Market ain’t happy.

The human toll when it comes to real estate is often total. People never learn, of course. Housing is the only asset that Canadians routinely pile every last dollar into, plus leverage to the extreme. This creates risk for everyone – the homeowner, the insurer (CMHC) and the economy. As so often stated on this pathetic blog, the risk was elevated absurdly as mortgage rates plunged into the 2% range, and stayed there. Borrowing became uncontrollable. So when we face the double threat of a commodity crisis and rising rates, look out.

By the way, did you catch this comment posted here yesterday?

I’m a mortgage broker and just got the email today. Scotia raised the variable to prime minus 20 basis points as of tomorrow. That was P-65 about a month ago. Banks are chopping the discount fast. Will soon be at prime. Cheap money days are ending fast.

Now, imagine you’re a hot new prime minister in search of a selfie. The last thing you need in addition to Nannygate is a housing crash. You can’t change the Fed’s mind about its looming increase (confirmed on Wednesday). The bond market tells you to buzz off. You can’t even seduce oil prices higher, and meanwhile the damn Parliamentary Budget Officer is saying your deficit numbers are fiction and will double in the years to come – putting more upward pressure on rates, tanking housing.

Whaddya gonna do?

Be bold.

Yesterday one of the online journals of the mortgage broker biz, Canadian Mortgage Trends, broke a story that, if true, could change the course of many people’s financial lives. Within six weeks, we’re told, our new finance minister will announce that minimum down payments will double, from 5% to 10%. The new rules will be designed to give a break to first-time buyers and try to prevent the collapse of smaller markets with a graduated approach.

For example, 5% down for properties up to $500,000, then 7% down to a threshold of $700,000 and 10% above that. The impact would likely be quick, and dramatic. Prices would stabilize immediately, and the insane year/year jumps that we’ve seen in YVR and the GTA would end. After all, sellers will find it to their advantage to price below these key levels wherever possible in order to attract the greatest number of buyers. Lenders will demand more skin in the game by purchasers. A smaller universe of buyers for expensive listings will impact demand and valuations. And overall, the oil and rate chills will be intensified by a new one – affordability.

Like I said, bold. Consequential news. Especially coming on a day when Fed officials affirm the coming US rate increase, when our dollar cascades into the 74-cent range, when mortgage costs are already rising and oil loses another 4% of its value.

Recent research by the lending industry found that with 10% down payments, 115,000 recent buyers would have been locked out of the market – because they lacked the money. That eclipses all the deals than took place in the country’s largest market in 2014 (there were fewer than 93,000 transactions in the GTA last year). Just imagine the depth of that chill.

Now, none of this might come to pass. The Hot One might balk at such a fundamental cold shower for the one segment of the economy – snorfling debt and bidding on houses – that continues to expand. Then again, he might decide to do the right thing.

If so, I will start being more respectful.

250 comments ↓

#1 Retired Boomer WI on 12.02.15 at 2:40 pm

I hope both of these things come to pass.

1. Higher down payments.

2. A US FED rate increase (just to save integrity if nothing else!)

3. Garth being more respectful of T2?…. we’ll find out

#2 Doug T. on 12.02.15 at 2:48 pm

U.S. going to hike rates – canadian dollar will continue its slide – commodities are getting crushed – moar war – this is a recipe for a swift kick in the canadian crotch – look out below

#3 Nick on 12.02.15 at 2:49 pm

With Calgary planning $20 billion spending spree on infrastructure, the long term future looks bright for the city. Just paid cash for a condo with a waterview, took about two months to rent it out, but the tenants plan on staying a few years so all is well. Let the bubble burst, it’ll be a perfect time to pick up a few more units at 50% off (using USD).

#4 noel on 12.02.15 at 2:55 pm

Thanks for this Garth, makes a ton of sense considering JTs platform:

“(the national housing strategy will) Review escalating home prices in high-priced markets – like Vancouver and Toronto – to keep home ownership within reach for Canadians living in these areas.”

https://www.liberal.ca/trudeau-promises-affordable-housing-for-canadians/

#5 Squirrel Soup on 12.02.15 at 2:58 pm

Well it was your CON buddies who started the whole thing with 40yr mortgages…

I was the only Conservative MP to vote against the proposal. So, stuff it. — Garth

#6 Squirrel Soup on 12.02.15 at 3:06 pm

#5 Squirrel Soup on 12.02.15 at 2:58 pm

Well it was your CON buddies who started the whole thing with 40yr mortgages…

I was the only Conservative MP to vote against the proposal. So, stuff it. — Garth

———-
You’re hilarious when ya get all riled up and feisty!

I guess T2 will have to right the ship.

#7 mishuko on 12.02.15 at 3:16 pm

@squirrel

he was the only person to have the balls to speak up and then suffered the consequences of political suicide if you did a little digging.

A great picture today and even in response was that one little meme of a girl holding a sign saying ‘Politicans are like sperm. Only 1 in a million are human.’

#8 Mark on 12.02.15 at 3:17 pm

“Well it was your CON buddies who started the whole thing with 40yr mortgages…”

Garth has already responded for himself, but I’ll point out that it was the Liberal government, in 2002 or 2003 or so, that opened the doors to letting the CMHC come up with no downpayment programs. A number of my friends in Calgary took advantage of such.

Over the years, its incredible how well they’ve done. Just looking at the record of one of them, between his original $100k house (bought with no downpayment), and moving up to a $350k house (which subsequently became a $500k house), the market has essentially ‘given’ him $250k in free equity. Actually $300k at the peak, but house prices have been falling in Calgary for the past 2 years just like in the rest of Canada. The guy never brought a dime to the table, and has basically HELOC’ed mortgage payments over the years back into his pockets to support a weed/drinking habit and lots of trips to Hawaii.

Unearned equity being given out by the housing market, over the long term, is historically uncommon. So its entirely conceivable that as credit tightens, and tightens well beyond its historic norms (we are nowhere near such yet!), all that unearned equity (and perhaps more) will be removed. Unfortunately for those without a low cost base, negative equity is quite a significant possibility.

#9 Smoking Man on 12.02.15 at 3:22 pm

Wow.

Trump, ISIS working with Turkey.
Trump, Live Interview with Alex Jones.

Remember when Charlie Sheen went on Alex Jones, what happened to him.

The machine is going to go ape shit over this. The problem, anytime the Machine goes ape shit on Trump, the more popular he gets….

This is getting interesting.

#10 Victoria Real Estate Update on 12.02.15 at 3:23 pm

. . . . . . . . . . . .House Prices. . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . Percent Above/Below June 2008 Price Level. .
. . . . . . .x = Winnipeg, * = Victoria . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+35%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x. . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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+30% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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+25%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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+20% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .x . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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+15%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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+10% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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+ 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
….0%. . . x*. . . . . . . . * . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
—————————————————————————–
. . . . . . June. . . . . . .June. . . . . . . . October. .
. . . . . . 2008. . . . . . 2011. . . . . . . . . 2015. . .

(source: Teranet’s index)

Follow the x symbols from left to right for Winnipeg and the * symbols for Victoria.

(continued)

#11 X on 12.02.15 at 3:24 pm

I was the only Conservative MP to vote against the proposal. So, stuff it. — Garth

The strong backbone comes with having a beard right?

Would love to see the rumored downpayment rules be further reinforced (although it would obliterate the RE industry short term)….as in gradually over time, 10% is the required downpayment for all properties, and/or CMHC insurance to drop a little of what it will cover, putting a little more weight on the lenders themselves to ensure a little more quality in the loans they are issuing.

Wouldn’t it have been easier to have a gov’t mandated testing facility to ensure auto manufacturers (that sell vehicles in Canada) stated mileage is actually what they calculate. Or to have stricter emissions requirements. Or do we need another VW incident. Seems like an easier way to get some auto pollution reduced, than to add 4c a liter on for a carbon tax……

Nannygate. I don’t mind my taxes going towards his nannies. Seems reasonable to keep his family porotected and safe. And there are far greater and more costly gov’t issues to discuss. But I guess thats what sells papers….

#12 Broke Dick on 12.02.15 at 3:28 pm

Prices would stabilize immediately, and the insane year/year jumps that we’ve seen in YVR and the GTA would end.-GT

Maybe you’re right Garth. If we look back to the time when CMHC restricted to houses under 1M the markets did stabilize in TO for the houses over 1M(for a short time). But also true was more upward price pressure for the houses under 1M.
The other thing to consider is if this announcement is made in six weeks time (mid Jan) they will have to give 90-150 days notice. It’s going to be one crazy spring market in 416.
I better get started on painting the house in neutral colours.

#13 Vundo on 12.02.15 at 3:33 pm

#5 Garth: defying the will of a party leader to stand up for what you believe in takes courage and tenacity. Thank you. Dogs and squirrels alike should respect you for that.

RE: the CMT story – splendid news. If that is true then Trudeau can go ahead and hire four nannies. I won’t care about that if this government had the courage to start on on the path out of this mess.

#14 Brian Ripley on 12.02.15 at 3:35 pm

“Mr. Market ain’t happy.” Garth

I mashed up some charts relative to the private audience presentation in New York by CMHC on a $35/bbl oil price lasting for 5 years:

http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/35-oil-stress-test

Notice the 22 year span of sub $35/bbl oil in the not to distant past.

CMHC is losing sleep… after being asleep for so long.

#15 notagreaterfool on 12.02.15 at 3:41 pm

If they do change the mortgage rules, in the SFH segment of Vancouver or Toronto , business may improve for the Bank of Mom and Dad. Wonder if any additional controls would be sought out.

Also this news comes at a time when investment dollars (in general) Canada are leaving Canada (for other markets) at an accelerated pace. Dump Canada.

#16 Squirrel Soup on 12.02.15 at 3:43 pm

#7 mishuko on 12.02.15 at 3:16 pm

@squirrel

he was the only person to have the balls to speak up and then suffered the consequences of political suicide if you did a little digging.

A great picture today and even in response was that one little meme of a girl holding a sign saying ‘Politicans are like sperm. Only 1 in a million are human.’
—————
Oh I knew perfectly well.. wasn’t taking a shot at the host.. just the CONS who started it all with crazy long mortgages. So yeah.

#17 Spiltbongwater on 12.02.15 at 3:46 pm

Wall street built ISIS. They profit from them. Now those same globalists will go in and destroy ISIS and profit again, then profit from the rebuilding.

#18 Victor V on 12.02.15 at 3:47 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/toronto/toronto-mayor-john-tory-proposes-property-tax-increase/article27563725/

Toronto Mayor John Tory is proposing a new .5 per cent annual tax to help raise money for the city’s ambitious transit and housing plans.

In a speech Wednesday afternoon at the Economic Club of Canada in Toronto, Mr. Tory outlined a five-year plan starting in 2017 that would require Toronto home owners to pay the extra tax on top of the existing property tax.

#19 my house is my friend on 12.02.15 at 3:49 pm

Is this why the banks are so profitable.

COMER alleges that by no longer providing these loans, the Bank and others named in the suit have forced the government to finance budget deficits by borrowing from private markets and paying hundreds of billions of dollars in interest. Last year, $28 billion—over 10 percent of the federal government’s $277 billion in expenditures—went to servicing the debt.

That’s more than what was spent on National Defence ($21.5 billion) and nearly as much as the Canada health transfer ($30.5 billion).

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/1290580-bank-of-canada-faces-lawsuit-for-alleged-imf-conspiracy/

#20 Not Hapenning on 12.02.15 at 3:50 pm

You have to read between the line Garth, what is said is this:

By the end of January, the Department of Finance may recommend raising the minimum down payment to 10%

Here the key word is “May Recommend”. By the end of January they “May Recommend” (different then actually doing it) What will the short term reaction be??? Booming in house sale as people rush to avoid the new down payment rule that will never happen. Here is how to improve sale for the rest of 2015.

Thegoal of government is to inflate asset bubble…especially house price. They think we will all feel richer and spend more money. 40 years amortization is coming next… If thing get a tiny bit worst they will have to rush to save us from the bursting of the housing bubble.

#21 Victoria Real Estate Update on 12.02.15 at 3:58 pm

EPIC HOUSING MARKET FAILURE IN VICTORIA

Falling interest rates since 2008 have resulted in huge price gains in housing markets across Canada, except in Victoria.

Victoria’s tiny (2.5%) price gain since June 2008 has been less than the rate of inflation.

Indeed house prices across Canada have increased almost 34% since June 2008 as a result of the powerful price-boosting effect of falling interest rates.

VICTORIA IS CANADA’S UNDERWATER MORTGAGE CAPITAL

There are plenty of near-peak buyers in Victoria who owe more than the value of their properties.

These hard luck mortgage holders are simply stuck in their homes and cannot sell without taking a loss (paying the bank) or claiming bankruptcy.

This helps explain why there have been fewer than normal listings this year.

MYTH: THE VICTORIA WEATHER ADVANTAGE

In terms of house price gains since 2008 – freezing cold Winnipeg has kicked Victoria’s royal @ss. The same can be said about the rest of Canada’s colder cities.

MISSED OPPORTUNITY

It just didn’t happen in Victoria the way it did in housing markets across the rest of Canada since 2008.

Victoria’s housing market simply missed out on the opportunity of the century in failing to post skyrocketing price gains as rates were slashed to emergency levels and kept there for the past 6 years.

RISING RATES WILL PUSH BUYERS AWAY

Canadian 5-year mortgage rates have already begun moving higher. This is in anticipation of the US Fed beginning its rate hike cycle soon. This process will take 2 to 3 years to complete and will push Canadian 5-year mortgage rates north of 5%.

Rising rates are bad for house prices. Prices fall as rates rise. This is a fact which has been proven with housing markets throughout the world for decades.

#22 Kamilapea on 12.02.15 at 4:10 pm

I guess these would be macroprudential balls of steel. All I can say is more balls, more balls! Start the graduated rate at 10 per cent down or more. No need to inflate the low-end further by squeezing pretentious now-or-never aspirationals in with the ruffians whose only consideration is payment vs rent. The price of a beater apartment or townhouse shouldn’t make that of a beater house look reasonable.

#23 Mike in Edm on 12.02.15 at 4:12 pm

Where’s all the responses today?

I have a friend that has been transferred back and forth between Edmonton and Calgary the last few years for work. He’s now back in Calgary, and says that rents in the downtown core (all that he’s interested in) have plummeted 30-40% since he was there last year. He’s loving having so many options now. I can just imagine how many of these tenants are subsidizing their renters, as I remember another friend about a year ago saying they were BARELY able to break even on a condo they were renting out (because they couldn’t sell it) right across from the Stampede grounds.

#24 Frank on 12.02.15 at 4:14 pm

Honestly, I think that minimum down payment move would be brilliance. Everyone is calling for softening in the housing market. Get ahead of it by clamping down yourself and spread the impact out over more time.

#25 Frank on 12.02.15 at 4:16 pm

I was the only Conservative MP to vote against the proposal. So, stuff it. — Garth

I love the level of accessibility we have to a (former) MP.

#26 pinstripe on 12.02.15 at 4:20 pm

The news at the coffee shop this morning was the same as indicating in this post. Many sad stories.

I live in the heartland industrial area and the volume of activity has decreased dramatically in all section of construction.

small contractors are either sitting idle or spending the winter months in Yuma hoping that something moves in the spring.

house sales have slowed to a crawl and farm sales have stopped.

some small businesses are open only four days a week.

some darn good bargains on recreational toys. The thrift shops are veryi busy.

GT. has Rona tapped you on the shoulder for advice on the new version of the CPC? Is the CPC ready for a name change?

#27 Bat Flipper on 12.02.15 at 4:23 pm

So many problems, why are people buying?
– Impending rate increases, slowly, but you will have some much higher payments 5 years from now.
– Broke population. over 50% can’t even come up with $1000
– Higher down payments
– Stricter mortgage guidelines
– More regulations
– Baby Boomers starting to sell and downsize
– Oil patch drying up and the trickle down effect from that.

The down payment is a targetted strike against houses in Van and TO where anything more than a condo starts at 500K now.

#28 IHCTD9 on 12.02.15 at 4:35 pm

I wonder how many of those who would have bought a 700K+ house at current DP rules, these same who would not now have the 10% DP required – how would they react?

Would they put it off and save some more to go over 700K?

Or would they settle for a <699,999.99 house?

You could see a great divide in the market where 650K houses shoot to 699K, while 750K houses also drop like a stone to 699K. I'd probably expect a slew of flippers buying 600K houses and trying to unload at 699 after a reno involving granite and stainless.

The GTA RE market could end up really congested at that 699 mark. Houses for ~4-600K, then a giant expanse of nothing leading to 50% of the market at 699K, with another giant expanse of nothingness connecting to houses ~790K+.

#29 Dup on 12.02.15 at 4:35 pm

Don’t forget the new Liberal Government of Justin Trudeau will also double the land transfer fee for the rest of Ontario to bring it up to par with Toronto. One more hit to the first time home buyers or the ones needing to upgrade their home to a larger one. What a shame…more tax grabs, and we thought they would lower taxes. Keep voting Liberal and that is what you get…

#30 Randy Severyn on 12.02.15 at 4:37 pm

Garth, I have enjoyed all of your dog photos, but enough is enough. We want more pictures of hot chicks.

#31 mishuko on 12.02.15 at 4:45 pm

Smokingman commented on your blog. I think you’d like it. Love your crazy talk but if people looked deeper they’d see the brilliance and truth.

the herd doesn’t look for the truth just the next person’s back to follow.

#32 Big Dipper on 12.02.15 at 4:46 pm

“If so, I will start being more respectful.”

———————————–

No, you’ll find something else to berate him on.

#33 Martin on 12.02.15 at 5:01 pm

If you have a variable mortgage rate based on the prime rate, and the Bank of Canada won’t raise the rate until end of 2017, as most economist expect.
(http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/interest-rates/bank-of-canada/article27559287/)
Most people with a variable mortgage rate should be okay for now, or am I totally seeing that wrong and should every body with a variable rate lock in now?

#34 Ben Bernake on 12.02.15 at 5:02 pm

#9 Smoking Man on 12.02.15 at 3:22 pm

Wow.

Trump, ISIS working with Turkey.
Trump, Live Interview with Alex Jones.

Remember when Charlie Sheen went on Alex Jones, what happened to him.

The machine is going to go ape shit over this. The problem, anytime the Machine goes ape shit on Trump, the more popular he gets….

This is getting interesting.
…………………………
Wow Smoking Man ever since you lost your job at the tax slave farm downtown and went to work in Boston you’ve become humble. Bahhhhaaa nope just more dam insane.

#35 Caught In The Grip on 12.02.15 at 5:06 pm

Gold & oil is about to free fall. I’m surprised the $CAD is still in the 70s…

#36 Not tonight honey on 12.02.15 at 5:08 pm

I was the only Conservative MP to vote against the proposal. So, stuff it. — Garth

//////////////////////////////

I might be developing a crush….swoon
Not platonic either, A fiscal crush ;-)

#37 zedgt87 on 12.02.15 at 5:08 pm

Wow, a move to promote financial responsibility in housing…. can it be true??

“Within six weeks, we’re told, our new finance minister will announce that minimum down payments will double, from 5% to 10%”

This blows my mind..

#38 -=jwk=- on 12.02.15 at 5:09 pm

It’s almost like we elected a sane, rational government that makes measured decisions based on data and long term impact. Amazing. Go for it JT! Great idea to have graduated downpayments.

#39 zedgt87 on 12.02.15 at 5:10 pm

>Well it was your CON buddies who started the whole thing with 40yr mortgages…

I was the only Conservative MP to vote against the proposal. So, stuff it. — Garth

Its true though garth, the ‘Convservatives’ inflated this gasbag housing economy. Shocking to hear that the ‘liberals’ are the ones taking steps back towards housing/debt responsibility by raising the minimum down-payment

#40 MF on 12.02.15 at 5:22 pm

“If so, I will start being more respectful.”

Me too Garth. I’ll give T2 a free pass (for the day at least).

This move would be welcomed.

#196 OXI in GREECE on 12.02.15 at 3:17 pm

“There is no point on this blog. All you pro govt pro global warming pro tax the crap out of us pro govt people just call us truthers names and tinfoils……so there is no point in naming names.”

I’m most certainly not pro government, nor am I pro tax. Now I am not even pro global warming (been following the discussion on the blog closely and I am certified skeptic). Great discussions about the topic on here.

But I do not believe in some shadow figures pulling the strings. Too many variables on earth for total control over it all, and zero proof of anything beyond logical coincidences. Randomness is 100% ignored by these so called truth speakers.

MF

#41 OXI in GREECE on 12.02.15 at 5:31 pm

For example, 5% down for properties up to $500,000, then 7% down to a threshold of $700,000 and 10% above that. The impact would likely be quick, and dramatic. Prices would stabilize immediately, and the insane year/year jumps that we’ve seen in YVR and the GTA would end. After all, sellers will find it to their advantage to price below these key levels wherever possible in order to attract the greatest number of buyers. Lenders will demand more skin in the game by purchasers. A smaller universe of buyers for expensive listings will impact demand and valuations. And overall, the oil and rate chills will be intensified by a new one – affordability.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

So does this mean that if in YVR the 1.5 million dollar daily wires into CIBC and TD keep coming….it will finally be revealed that foreign buyers are “not the myth” we keep getting blasted about?

#42 M on 12.02.15 at 5:40 pm

“”Within six weeks, we’re told, our new finance minister will announce that minimum down payments will double, from 5% to 10%. The new rules will be designed to give a break to first-time buyers and try to prevent the collapse of smaller markets with a graduated

The horse is on the hill and the barn is empty and in disrepair. 15 years ago…would ve been a good call.. now ?.. frivolous..

..just bought a $hitload of gold from the sprott buddy. maple pesso is tanking and if some TPP comes in place ..there s no bottom to the whole.

..while Draghi ‘s doing what Gringos were doing 2-3 years ago. Gringos will stay put-except printing the QE ready to come in march

In a year time , canadians will remember fondly today as being the good times…which in a way ..it is.

..some other canadians will love it, making like thieves and cecking aut the latest Otremer s

#43 Daniel on 12.02.15 at 5:41 pm

Do you believe residential housing is becoming institutionalized?

#44 Tony on 12.02.15 at 5:43 pm

If they actually hike rates 4 times in America (.25 x 4) that would be the end of real estate in the GTA area. A stronger U.S. dollar can only push commodity prices lower, more bad news for Canada and it would eventually affect housing.

#45 Squirrel Soup on 12.02.15 at 5:46 pm

#9 Smoking Man on 12.02.15 at 3:22 pm

Wow.

Trump, ISIS working with Turkey.
Trump, Live Interview with Alex Jones.

Remember when Charlie Sheen went on Alex Jones, what happened to him.

The machine is going to go ape shit over this. The problem, anytime the Machine goes ape shit on Trump, the more popular he gets….

This is getting interesting
——
Oil dropped another 4%…………

#46 Mark on 12.02.15 at 5:53 pm

“So does this mean that if in YVR the 1.5 million dollar daily wires into CIBC and TD keep coming….”

No, not at all. There will always be a high-end chunk of Canadians who can (and are) paying those top prices. The problem is, most of them are ‘move-up’ buyers and thus if they can’t sell their $900k house, ‘moving up’ to a $1.5M house will be increasingly difficult.

Ross Kay, in his Howestreet.com audio interviews, terms this the ‘sales chain’. I don’t agree with everything he says, but the concept is quite valid nonetheless.

#47 Freedom First on 12.02.15 at 5:54 pm

The first paragraph in today’s blog is profoundly true. To ignore this will be to meet the dog on the right. People want and want and want to do what they want for what they want even if it goes against being a wise and prudent steward of their resources. It is always easier to do the right thing no matter what. These are good words to live by. I know.

#48 III World War - For the Central Bankers on 12.02.15 at 6:00 pm

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/dec/02/david-cameron-syria-debate-isis-britains-duty

2012 Video predicting what is unraveling now

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HP7L8bw5QF4

#49 JSS on 12.02.15 at 6:03 pm

So far this week, both BMO and National Bank increased their dividends.

Me thinks Canadian Western Bank will be announcing a dividend increase tomorrow.

#50 Mark on 12.02.15 at 6:14 pm

“Do you believe residential housing is becoming institutionalized?”

When you have the federal government, through the CMHC, involved in ~$900B out of a ~$1.2T market in residential mortgages as its guarantor (or re-insurer) — it should be pretty clear who calls the shots.

I’m not aware of any examples in any other nominally “non-communist country” where the government had such a large financial interest in transactions that ordinarily would be entirely between private sector participants. Even the USA’s Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac, at their peak, only hit $5-$6T of exposure, which is far less than Canada at the typical 1:10 ratio.

“Shocking to hear that the ‘liberals’ are the ones taking steps back towards housing/debt responsibility by raising the minimum down-payment”

The government pretty much has no choice but to crack down since we are obviously well past the peak (2-3 years now) of the market across Canada. The more quickly capital and resources can be rebalanced towards the non-housing part of the economy, the better the economy will eventually become, and the less long-term damage will ultimately occur. Trudeau probably wants to be around for a 2nd or 3rd term, not be a 1-term flameout.

#51 Nagraj on 12.02.15 at 6:15 pm

reply to the highly intelligent post by #156 ALISTAIR McLAUGHLIN on Dec. 2nd, 10:14AM

You’re absolutely right, the periods of unemployment in excess of 10% in Canada – did not give rise to political instability as we normally understand the term political instability. There were no alarming displays of social unrest.
If I again say that sustained periods of 10% unemployment are politically destabilizing, I will make it a point to qualify that statement.

[As an aside: as I recall, the Fed Funds peaked at 24% in May 1980; the American bipartisan effort to “wrestle inflation to the ground” gave us, so to speak, the Great Lakes industrial Rust Belt – which is still rusting.]

#52 Alberta Ed on 12.02.15 at 6:32 pm

Not to worry. Fluff-for-Brains said the budget will take care of itself.

#53 Ben on 12.02.15 at 6:34 pm

If anyone has any Montreal news / ideas I’d be keen to hear them.

#54 MSM-Free Zone on 12.02.15 at 6:34 pm

“…..If so, I will start being more respectful…..”
_________________________

Yawn….boring……I’m kind of hoping for status quo….far more entertaining.

#55 Leo Trollstoy on 12.02.15 at 6:34 pm

Tech is booming. Technology has created more jobs than it has destroyed. In fact, tech has resulted in the decline of dangerous and physically labourous work over the last 140 years.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/aug/17/technology-created-more-jobs-than-destroyed-140-years-data-census

And the U.S. economy is booming. More people are making more money, everywhere.

http://www.businessinsider.com/wage-pressures-were-everywhere-in-the-beige-book-2015-12

Stable low inflation and more money everywhere? Yes please.

#56 Smoking Man on 12.02.15 at 6:34 pm

#34 Ben Bernake on 12.02.15 at 5:02 pm
#9 Smoking Man on 12.02.15 at 3:22 pm

Wow.

Trump, ISIS working with Turkey.
Trump, Live Interview with Alex Jones.

Remember when Charlie Sheen went on Alex Jones, what happened to him.

The machine is going to go ape shit over this. The problem, anytime the Machine goes ape shit on Trump, the more popular he gets….

This is getting interesting.
…………………………
Wow Smoking Man ever since you lost your job at the tax slave farm downtown and went to work in Boston you’ve become humble. Bahhhhaaa nope just more dam insane.
…..

Someone has to do the heavy lifting..

Not only do I have a tin foil hat.
Is a grand fidora covered in tin foil…

Go a new one for Justina.

T 2 Nannies

#57 Smoking Man on 12.02.15 at 6:36 pm

#35 Caught In The Grip on 12.02.15 at 5:06 pm
Gold & oil is about to free fall. I’m surprised the $CAD is still in the 70s.
..

Its always caulm before the storm..

#58 Leo Trollstoy on 12.02.15 at 6:42 pm

14 Brian Ripley on 12.02.15 at 3:35 pm

Brilliant.

#59 risk = rate on 12.02.15 at 7:01 pm

President CHoice / a.k.a. the financial arm of Loblaws/Superstore etc. sent me a notification of a 1% rate increase on my credit card, i think they are assuming a lot of late payments in the near future… the credit cards default will kill the housing market as per usual.

#60 BC Guy on 12.02.15 at 7:02 pm

When I bought my first place in the early 90’s (a condo), the bank wouldn’t even talk to me until I had a 20% down payment.

A few years ago, I bought a small house in rural BC, had a 75% cash down payment, a small car loan, a recreational property assessed at $160k as collateral, no other debts, a sizeable RRSP, and a good credit rating. But the lender still insisted I have CMHC insurance. But it was Sept. 2008. Go figure.

Mortgages are way too easy these days for most people and lending rules need to be significantly tighter.

#61 mike from Mtl on 12.02.15 at 7:03 pm

Hmm well that is actually a prudent move, unlike the reckless prior party. At minimum it keeps those really on edge out; most likely to be affected by any ‘correction’.

Seriously you need to have your head examined buying a 700k+ chipboard and prefab tract house in the middle of nowhere that probably cost less 100k to build.

#62 turn of the tide on 12.02.15 at 7:15 pm

“Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff will face impeachment proceedings in Congress, marking a deepening of the political crisis that is dragging Latin America’s largest economy further into recession.”

What a shiFt show. PLACE YOUR BETS :)

Bets this is good for the economy: EWZ
Bets it will get much worse: BZQ

BZQ up 67.37% Year-to-date

I’ll grab some popcorn and enjoy the show

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-02/rousseff-to-face-impeachment-in-brazil-congress-speaker-says

#63 jess on 12.02.15 at 7:16 pm

What a contrast!

Families Live Jammed Into Chinatown Rooms in San Francisco
Wednesday, 02 December 2015 00:00 By Katherine Kam, New America Media | Report
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/33871-families-live-jammed-into-chinatown-rooms-in-san-francisco

From 2006 until his arrest in 2014
Xun “Sunny” Wang,
R. v. Wang, 2015 BCPC 302 (CanLII)

UPDATED : Wednesday, 02 December, 2015, 11:12am
Immigration mega-fraud: the rich Chinese immigrants to Canada who don’t really want to live there
http://www.scmp.com/comment/blogs/article/1883085/immigration-mega-fraud-rich-chinese-immigrants-canada-who-dont-really

#64 S.Bby on 12.02.15 at 7:19 pm

Technology:
The latest heard today is self-driving buses pitched to Translink in YVR. Needless to say the bus driver’s union is not happy about this. Their rebuttal is the drivers are “ambassadors to tourists” (HA HA HA!) and a driver-less bus won’t wait for a late passenger (like the drivers do?) LOL!

No more bus drivers, taxi drivers, truck drivers…

#65 Raj on 12.02.15 at 7:24 pm

Let me understand prime-20 effects only new borrowers right? Or everybody who has variable rate

#66 Squirrel Soup on 12.02.15 at 7:30 pm

#56 Smoking Man on 12.02.15 at 6:36 pm

#35 Caught In The Grip on 12.02.15 at 5:06 pm
Gold & oil is about to free fall. I’m surprised the $CAD is still in the 70s.
..

Its always caulm before the storm..
———————-

Hey let’s invite Montenegro join NATO.. that ought to help piss off Putin some more!

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/03/world/europe/kerry-nato-syria-russia.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

#67 wonthappenhere on 12.02.15 at 7:42 pm

i live in vancouver and our house has gone from $400,000 in 2001 to $2,500,000 today. its a 1930s bungalow on a 33 x 120 foot lot. we have done no renos since we bought the 1800 sq ft house. people have been calling for a bust for the last 10 years and each year our house goes up a few hundred grand. give up on the bust idea….prices will never fall hard here. sold signs and orange construction fences on literally every block for years.

#68 nonplused on 12.02.15 at 7:43 pm

Glam-boy will probably want his own national carbon tax too.

A friend of mine still in the industry (most of us have been let go) tells me the Nutley plan works out to $1.65 per GJ on your heating bill. That’s almost as much as the gas itself costs right now and would result in nearly a 30% increase in heating costs. (There is also a transportation cost so it won’t quite double the bill.) So if Glam-boy wants just as big a piece of the pie heating costs will double. Around my house that would result in about $400 less money available for spending or making mortgage payments in the winter. And all over nothing. I already have a high efficiency furnace, R40 in the roof and one of those electronic thermostats that cuts the heat at night so there isn’t much more I can do. Except maybe swap out the gas stove (also high efficiency) for a wood burner and start cutting down trees. Be kind of a shame though my trees represent a carbon sink at present. And maybe drain the hot tub as power prices will be going up just as much so there’s another $400 disposable income being taxed away.

And don’t forget the price of everything else made locally including food and recreation and gasoline of course is also going up.

I don’t think most people are going to be able to do it.

#69 bram on 12.02.15 at 7:47 pm

YVR home sales volume is +40% in nov/nov.
YVR prices are +17% in nov/nov.

Still not stopping. Insanity.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/12/02/november-home-sales-in-vancouver-up-40-per-cent-from-year-ago-board-says_n_8701434.html

#70 Stephen Harp the hERald sings on 12.02.15 at 7:51 pm

I can’t wait to see the reaction of your HOT Prime Minister when this all blows up which it will, debt and more debt to keep this boat floating.

With all the promises, now talk about 60,000 Syrian refugees at the end of 2016 the tax slaves will have to work harder to finance this puppy.

Good luck all you slaves, a heart attack might just be your saviour.

Don’t worry about me I have 90% of my eggs off shore, US included.

#71 MF on 12.02.15 at 7:57 pm

#66 wonthappenhere on 12.02.15 at 7:42 pm

Hi. 32 year old Canadian with savings and no debt here. I’m the guy who people like you depend on to buy your overpriced garbage.

But I won’t. This market reeks to high heaven and more and more of us realize it everyday. I wouldn’t be so smug.

Besides if I want to buy, I’ll ask for your realtor(tm) card thanks.

MF

#72 saskatoon on 12.02.15 at 7:57 pm

if t2 is smart he will push for policies to crash the housing market immediately…

allowing the whole mess to be blamed on harper…

if too much time passes…t2 will be blamed…

if he is smart…

#73 Jack Smith on 12.02.15 at 8:09 pm

Hey everyone, bond yields keep falling and the Fed rate increase seems more and more worthless.

Bond yields in Canada have fallen by 20 basis points from there high and the U.S. not that much less so the chance of a 3% to 4% bond yield is a pipe dream.

The 1’s and 2’s are where they will stay with up and down movements to make confusion to say the least.

#74 Gray Man on 12.02.15 at 8:10 pm

133 OXI in GREECE on 12.02.15 at 1:30 am#81 Gray Man on 12.01.15 at 10:21 pmNegative in The I.O.U. of America also.If the Banks that own and control the Fed decide its in their best interest to raise or go negative , then thats what will happen.The Fed reports to Congress, not member banks. Pure fiction. — Garth>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>The Fed reports to Congress as well as its private shareholders. Anyone thinking the Fed is owned by the people of the USA is thinking fiction.
^^^^^^^^^^>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Did not say Fed owned by The People , pay attention !
If you really want to know read ; The creature from Jekyll island
By G. Edward Griffin

#75 cto on 12.02.15 at 8:14 pm

I notice prices are dropping up north. Can you do a post on the cottage real estate market? Your predictions? As this market seems to run on different fundementals than urban makets. Or am I wrong?

#76 LP on 12.02.15 at 8:16 pm

#32 Big Dipper on 12.02.15 at 4:46 pm
“If so, I will start being more respectful.”

———————————–
No, you’ll find something else to berate him on.

—————————————–
Yup, that’s what curmudgeons do.

#77 Patrick on 12.02.15 at 8:19 pm

Millennial trend is to skip the starter home and jump straight to the mid-career neighbourhoods.

Skip the crappy 1200 sq. ft. townhouse and go straight to 2000+ sq.ft fully-detached, 2 car garage. The rest of the neighbourhood is 50 and has been working for 30 years to live there.

People should hold themselves to a 20% minimum down-payment just because of risk. At least you won’t be underwater. Kinda forces you to buy something reasonable too. Like interest rates in the 80s.

#78 Only-inflation-to-reduce-debt-burden on 12.02.15 at 8:20 pm

Okay, okay,,, if the rest of Canada is doing poorly then many more Canadians will be moving to where the hotter markets are thriving which is good for housing prices in those areas… If governments are building cities (as in billion dollar annual deficits) then that is good for house values in those cities… If neighbours are bettering their homes then that is good for house values… If people are swarming in to your city then that is good for house values… Inflation is world economies are working to ignite which is a good thing at a manageable rate and that too is good for house values… Perhaps a slight correction is in the mix but after that the battle to rekindle an inflation fire is what most of the industrialized countries are working toward…….

#79 Chaddywack on 12.02.15 at 8:25 pm

Saw a for sale sign with “open cancelled” and “SOLD” today on my way home.

Seems that Vancouver is still HOT HOT HOT……and they say December is slow?

#80 common sense on 12.02.15 at 8:27 pm

Mr. Turner:

Re: Potential carbon taxes.

Do any MP’s personally survey real Canadian households at all before voting on a bill to determine the real impact on households and the economy?

Or do they just depend on Stats Can or a focus group for any research?

Do most even care or have the time?

#81 Gray Man on 12.02.15 at 8:30 pm

#19 my house is my friend.

I think this conspiracy theorist needs to get some heavy duty tin foil
and make a hat to protect himself from such nonsense , what do you think son.

#82 Smoking Man on 12.02.15 at 8:32 pm

LMAO anyone get of of these in their email. A Smoking Man grass hopper, Trying to take down the King.
Just 57 Million? Bahahahahaha

Good Day My good friend,

This is a personal email directed to you and I request that it be treated as such.I am Mr. Chen Siqing, The former chief auditor and now Vice Chairman and President BANK OF CHINA PLC. I was the personal account officer to the late Mr (MY LAST NANE) hereinafter referred to as ‘my client’ who worked as an independent oil magnate in my country and who died in a car crash with his immediate family on the June 18, 2009. Since the death of my client in October,2009, I have written several letters to the embassy with an intent to locate any of his extended relatives whom shall be claimants/beneficiaries of his abandoned personal estate and all such efforts have been to no avail.

More so,I have received official letters in the last few weeks suggesting a likely proceeding for confiscation of his abandoned personal assets in line with existing laws by the bank in which my client deposited the sum of $57,002,060. On this note i decided to search for a credible person and finding that you bear a similar last name, I decided to contact you, that I may,with your consent, present you to the “trustee” bank as my late client’s surviving family member so as to enable you put up a claim to the bank in that capacity as a next of kin of my client.

I find this possible for the fuller reasons that you bear a similar last name with my client making it a lot easier for you to put up a claim in that capacity.I propose that 40% of the net sum will accrue to you at the conclusion of this deal. Therefore, to facilitate the immediate transfer of this fund, you need, first to contact me via signifying your interest and as soon as I obtain your confidence,I will immediately appraise you with more details on how this transaction will come to a successful end.

HOWEVER, you will have to assent to an express agreement which I will forward to you in order to bind us in this transaction. Upon the receipt of your reply,I will send you an E-mail with the next step to take.I will not fail to bring to your notice that this proposal is hitch-free and that you should not entertain any fears as the required arrangements have been made for the completion of this transfer. Like I have implied, I require only a solemn confidentiality on this.

Best regards,
Chen Siqing

#83 Gray Man on 12.02.15 at 8:33 pm

Just kidding #19 my house is my friend .

#84 Dee on 12.02.15 at 8:34 pm

@#29

Not happening: http://www.northumberlandview.ca/index.php?module=news&type=user&func=display&sid=38834

#85 Smoking Man on 12.02.15 at 8:36 pm

#31 mishuko on 12.02.15 at 4:45 pm
Smokingman commented on your blog. I think you’d like it. Love your crazy talk but if people looked deeper they’d see the brilliance and truth.

the herd doesn’t look for the truth just the next person’s back to follow.
………….

Go to yesterdays comments. I gave you a fine tribute.

#86 Patrick on 12.02.15 at 8:39 pm

#71 saskatoon on 12.02.15 at 7:57 pm
if t2 is smart he will push for policies to crash the housing market immediately…
allowing the whole mess to be blamed on harper…
if too much time passes…t2 will be blamed…
_________________________________

Yikes. Champion of the middle-class crushing their wealth. It would line up with the rest of his policies. It would also be a huge gamble. No way he walks away unscathed.

#87 IKnow on 12.02.15 at 8:44 pm

Tens of thousands of house owners in YVR enjoyed +500k to +2M increase in house wealth. So minor legislation change or interest rate increase will have absolutely NO impact on SFH prices. As I said always, nothing short of atomic war or super virus would stop YVR house price increase.

Remember those words. — Garth

#88 Smoking Man on 12.02.15 at 8:53 pm

Wynne is a smooth operator.

Now with the sell of Hydro 1, no longer will we ever know what these sleaze balls at Hydro 1 are doing. But understand this dogs, the tree hugging communist manifesto has a dream.

The complete destruction of industrial society, they don’t even try and hide it. The auditor general found out that we over paid billions upon billions in hydro. How many business left Ontario, how many are going to leave? You guys who haven’t hedged, are going to get massacred by these thieving psychotic family hating urban ideologs.

Kathleen, T2 and there Eco Nazis what to destroy manufacturing, eliminate cars, put us all back in the stone age.

All while enriching themselves and their eco-partners with no regard to the future of truly stupid young people that support them.

I was young once, I hated the man, then I became one through time, trial error, and hard work.

Once these toe dirt, scum suckers are done with you, it will be impossible for anyone to be the man.

Just the way they want it.

#89 Linda on 12.02.15 at 9:00 pm

The graduated down payment proposal is interesting but – first would that not simply continue to encourage those who can’t afford it to jump into the market, taking on massive debt & putting all the eggs in one basket; second, in the current economic downturn with house listings swelling & buyers evaporating, who will (or can) purchase in the first place? People may make unwise decisions, but only the financially suicidal would purchase when they might not have a job in a month. As for lenders, sub-prime or no, they want some assurance they’ll get their profit & based on what I’ve been seeing, the conventional lenders at least are requiring a lot more surety from those who are applying for a loan in the first place.

#90 common sense on 12.02.15 at 9:01 pm

#87 Smoking Man

I sense your holding back….come on, let it rip.

Any word on the Million $ fed rate bet?

#91 the Jaguar on 12.02.15 at 9:08 pm

#23, Mike in Edmonton:

Those deals on rentals don’t even take into account the number of condos that are about to spill on to the market in the Beltline or other downtown Calgary areas. Think the massive two Guardian towers, several around Central Park, and Brad Lamb’s buildings to name just a few. There must be a significant number of investor units in those towers, purchased by oil & gas employees two years ago who figured the tight rental market and their own jobs would never end.
The words ‘This won’t end well’ were never so appropriate to the current situation in Calgary.

#92 Tim on 12.02.15 at 9:12 pm

yes, and despite all the layoffs the market in Calgary is only down a few percent. This shows how many people are able to hold on to their houses in a bad economy.

Houses prices are sticky. Sales have tanked. More to come. Don’t draw conclusions just yet. — Garth

#93 Smoking Man on 12.02.15 at 9:14 pm

#89 common sense on 12.02.15 at 9:01 pm
#87 Smoking Man

I sense your holding back….come on, let it rip.

Any word on the Million $ fed rate bet?
….

Let me get a few drinks in me and I’ll re visit the topic. But those usually end up in the delete bin..

Haven’t heard from the billionaire, he’s probably thanking his lucky stars after the ADP report and comments from the fed today. Or perhaps he’s gone into the archives and realizes what beast of a crystal ball I have.

Now I wouldn’t even take the bet, it would so unfair. Plus judging by his words looks like garth is the one on his shit list..

Everyone loves me…:)

#94 OXI in GREECE on 12.02.15 at 9:14 pm

#87 IKnow on 12.02.15 at 8:44 pm
Tens of thousands of house owners in YVR enjoyed +500k to +2M increase in house wealth. So minor legislation change or interest rate increase will have absolutely NO impact on SFH prices. As I said always, nothing short of atomic war or super virus would stop YVR house price increase.

Remember those words. — Garth
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

IF the foreign buyer “myth” is true…..numbers will drop in YVR right away.

IF the foreign buyer idea turns out to be 100% correct, so will you be……

I can’t wait to see this domino drop…..

#95 Tim on 12.02.15 at 9:16 pm

RE Nick
With Calgary planning $20 billion spending spree on infrastructure, the long term future looks bright for the city. Just paid cash for a condo with a waterview, took about two months to rent it out, but the tenants plan on staying a few years so all is well. Let the bubble burst, it’ll be a perfect time to pick up a few more units at 50% off (using USD).

—————-
Ever hear of the expression: catch a falling knife?

#96 bigtowne on 12.02.15 at 9:18 pm

Now that T2 is removing the VISA requirement for Mexicans it will facilitate my eco plan to save the Canadian environment from our industrialized economy.

This is a two prong project. First part of the plan calls for most of Canada to WINTER in Mexico and shut down the country for at least six months every year…except for Vancouver and Vancouver Island where it’s just too nice to shut down.

Next since I am reading 19th century literature and am familiar with the prevalent mode of transport being the horse and/or trains.

Now with the horse having to consume large quantities of OATS daily …being aware that the oats end up on our byways and hiways it will be a huge job creator as someone has to clean up all this horses…t.

So you can’t say I don’t want to share in making my world better.

#97 Big Dipper on 12.02.15 at 9:20 pm

Looks like other media have picked up the mortgage down payment story. High level anonymous source stuff. Deliberate leak?

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/12/02/mortgage-minimum-down-payment-hike_n_8698474.html

If you wait long enough, it will be in the HuffPost. — Garth

#98 Trading Naked on 12.02.15 at 9:36 pm

Yeah, Garth enough with the pictures of hot bitches and more pictures of hot chicks, please. Preferably free-range and grain-fed. Hens are okay, too. Wouldn’t mind a hot cock in the mix, either.

#30 Randy Severyn on 12.02.15 at 4:37 pm

Garth, I have enjoyed all of your dog photos, but enough is enough. We want more pictures of hot chicks.

#99 bdysktn on 12.02.15 at 9:45 pm

#87 IKnow on 12.02.15 at 8:44 pm
Tens of thousands of house owners in YVR enjoyed +500k to +2M increase in house wealth. So minor legislation change or interest rate increase will have absolutely NO impact on SFH prices. As I said always, nothing short of atomic war or super virus would stop YVR house price increase
———————–
virtually no liveable sfh in van/w van/most of rmd and bby for less than a mil. cmhc rules don’t apply.

#100 45north on 12.02.15 at 9:50 pm

For example, 5% down for properties up to $500,000, then 7% down to a threshold of $700,000 and 10% above that.

I said before that the present CMHC cutoff at $1 million makes the housing market like a game of black jack.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blackjack

and the logical thing would be to require a 10% down payment on sales over $900,000.

as Mark said: Trudeau probably wants to be around for a 2nd or 3rd term, not be a 1-term flameout.

#101 Smoking Man on 12.02.15 at 9:57 pm

Ontario doles out vast majority of its corporate welfare to a small, favoured group of companies: AG

Let me guess which companies get on the Wynne gravy train.

Eco-Nazi Corps
Corps that are man hating.

I could go on.

Read it and cry

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/vast-majority-of-ontarios-corporate-welfare-goes-to-small-favoured-group-of-companies-ag

#102 45north on 12.02.15 at 10:00 pm

smoking man: Wynne is a smooth operator.

Now with the sell off of Hydro 1, no longer will we ever know what these sleaze balls at Hydro 1 are doing.

she wishes

it was the Ontario Liberal Government that cancelled the gas generating stations. gutless wonders

the copper/zinc smelter in Timmins appealed to Hydro One for better rates on electricity but were turned down. They moved to Rouyn-Noranda on the other side of the Quebec/Ontario border.

http://suzanneleclair.com/closing-timmins-cooper-zinc-smelter-is-quebecs-hydro-electricity-lower-rate-to-blame/

#103 Leo Trollstoy on 12.02.15 at 10:01 pm

#67 wonthappenhere on 12.02.15 at 7:42 pm

That’s pretty much the same story I’m hearing from my friends.

Vancouver is crazy.

Those that sold a few years ago have regret.

It’s nuts.

#104 TRT on 12.02.15 at 10:05 pm

Admit it Garth.

People who bought vancouver houses when this blog started have hit the jackpot.

You say no crash so even if a massive 20% correction happens, that will put prices at last years levels.

Other places in Canada are not so fortunate. Don’t worry, we won’t talk about why vancouver is so ‘lucky’.

I’ll admit you’re in an asset bubble. There are safer places to be. As always, the only people making money are those converting the asset into cash. — Garth

#105 TRT on 12.02.15 at 10:06 pm

Friend bought a lot for $1.6 million in Van in February. Getting offers for $2.4 million now. Yes. $800,000 in 10 months!!

#106 Freedom First on 12.02.15 at 10:09 pm

#67 wonthappenhere

ask yourself if you would pay $2,500,000 for your house today

#107 Jeffrey of Saskatoon on 12.02.15 at 10:12 pm

Bludbat.

#108 Paris on 12.02.15 at 10:12 pm

Screw the carbon tax.

Fix the green wave flow of traffic lights, burning insane amount of gas in idle vehicles and insane amount of time of tax payers.

For those who take public transportation, fix that buses don’t travel in convoys, the last one nearly empty – wasting insane amount of tax payers money.

Once these are done, you can think about the next goals.

#109 Smoking Man on 12.02.15 at 10:12 pm

#102 45north on 12.02.15 at 10:00 pm
smoking man: Wynne is a smooth operator.

Now with the sell off of Hydro 1, no longer will we ever know what these sleaze balls at Hydro 1 are doing.

she wishes

it was the Ontario Liberal Government that cancelled the gas generating stations. gutless wonders

the copper/zinc smelter in Timmins appealed to Hydro One for better rates on electricity but were turned down. They moved to Rouyn-Noranda on the other side of the Quebec/Ontario border.

http://suzanneleclair.com/closing-timmins-cooper-zinc-smelter-is-quebecs-hydro-electricity-lower-rate-to-blame/
….

It’s planned and executed deliberately.

The insider for the liberals, dude by the name of Butts.

This ass worked for the world wildlife fund or something like that, radical eco nazis hell bent on destroying our way of life.

Doing it on purpose. In fact they love me talking about, speed up the exodus for business from Ontario.
They are truly Insane.

So are the follower, speech in a teacher tone full of conviction, the newly schooled follow like guppies to bread crums.

I know after 4 years, allot of people will be looking for these types with ropes and ladders…

The morons think they will slay the climate change deniers.. Complete opposite of they they anticipate.

#110 Smoking Man on 12.02.15 at 10:30 pm

DELETED (at the request of the author)

#111 common sense on 12.02.15 at 10:33 pm

#106 FF

Who cares if they would pay that for the house today?

Until they sell, it’s “worth” is just a number.

All the best to those who won the housing appreciation lotto…

Let’s see who has any brains with an exit strategy….

#112 saskatoon on 12.02.15 at 10:36 pm

alex jones interviews donald trump:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LIZ7lZvhTfE

#113 Yuus bin Haad on 12.02.15 at 10:38 pm

Let’s give Sherry a ring.

#114 Spaccone on 12.02.15 at 10:44 pm

#30 Randy Severyn on 12.02.15 at 4:37 pm
Garth, I have enjoyed all of your dog photos, but enough is enough. We want more pictures of hot chicks.

——————————————————

SJWs and similar types would make this blog unbearable.

#115 Smoking Man on 12.02.15 at 10:57 pm

#110 Smoking Man on 12.02.15 at 10:30 pm
DELETED (at the request of the author)

Thank you..

#116 ANON on 12.02.15 at 11:01 pm

Whitch-hunting season opens early in EM.
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.”
–Dude Mackay

#117 Bringemallin on 12.02.15 at 11:13 pm

First shooter identified in San Bernadino mass killing…Sayid Faroouk……could be an 80 year old Swedish woman as far as the PC crowd is concerned.

#118 Oceanside on 12.02.15 at 11:16 pm

More slamming poor Justin just weeks after Canada threw out the Emperor . Libs may not get it all right but feels like a democracy again.

#119 Nemesis on 12.02.15 at 11:24 pm

“Now, imagine you’re a hot new prime minister in search of a selfie.” – HonGT

#LikeThis?…

https://youtu.be/zcgxBHBsl-4

#120 Nagraj on 12.02.15 at 11:31 pm

Photo: why are the two i’s in the word “Biting” missing their dots, whereas the two i’s in “Kissing” are very heavily dotted?

#121 Herf on 12.02.15 at 11:31 pm

#109 Smoking Man

“The insider for the liberals, dude by the name of Butts.

This ass worked for the world wildlife fund or something like that, radical eco nazis hell bent on destroying our way of life.”

And now Butts is at the helm as the MiniPET’s chief advisor, going to bring about the same green energy bs to the entire country, aided and abetted by Nutley of Alberta:

(Watch the whole spiel, or skip ahead to 7:10 to view the blurb about Butts):

http://www.therebel.media/trudeau_s_cabinet_has_pros_and_cons

http://www.therebel.media/trudeau_advisor_gerald_butts_green_energy_policies_cost_ontario_300_000_jobs_admits_liberal_think_tank

http://www.therebel.media/when_it_comes_to_liberal_energy_policy

#122 Mark on 12.02.15 at 11:35 pm

“Friend bought a lot for $1.6 million in Van in February. Getting offers for $2.4 million now. Yes. $800,000 in 10 months!!”

Statistically inconsistent with that of the Vancouver RE market (falling this year, so I’ve heard, across the entire spectrum), but in any asset class, there’s always certain (albeit small) elements that do dramatically outperform the average.

So congratulations to your friend for being in probably what is the 99th percentile of price changes with his purchase. However, it would be absolutely dangerous for others in Vancouver to believe such changes can be generalized over the entire spectrum of housing. And that’s where a lot of people run into trouble, especially when the tide of prices goes out and only the (excessive) debt remains.

#123 Rich in Calgary on 12.02.15 at 11:54 pm

WELL WELL WELL>… recession is over. Snap your fingers and all is better again. Of course it is. This is the new instant world with Twitter, Instagram and Insta-economic-recovery. Canada has become Japanada and now our Government thinks propaganda will solve all ills. This all feels so surreal.

TOP THIS OFF with the CREB being all over the radio and the newspaper saying that despite all the flood of listing we have only seen a 1% decline. What a joke! I see a town home up for sale down our street. Last year they sold for $400,000 in an instant. She has been trying to sell for 5 months now. $400, $390, and now again lowered to $368,000 … yeah right 1% .. The CREB website the same day the story broke showed a YOY decline of 6.5% on average prices.

This will all not end well no matter how the powers that be want to spin it. Let’s get real!

#124 BurnabyGuy on 12.02.15 at 11:57 pm

the only people making money are those converting the asset into cash. — Garth

Garth your statement is not true. It’s like saying Warren Buffet is not a billionaire because he has not sold his stock holdings and convert them into cash.

WB does not own only one thing. — Garth

#125 Everyone should read the Finance Minister's book, if you want to understand his vision of Canada on 12.02.15 at 11:57 pm

I’m just finishing our finance minister’s, Bill Morneau, book entitled: The Real Retirement. If you want to understand him, you’d better read his teachings. He’s all for means testing when it come to entitlements. Scary stuff if you’re a baby boomer.

#126 bdy sktn on 12.02.15 at 11:58 pm

#120 Nagraj
………..
Shouldn’t your name be spelled Nograj?

#127 bdy sktn on 12.03.15 at 12:02 am

Mark. Avg van shf 22 % up in one year _ if you heard that’s falling you truly need to clean something from your ears

#128 common sense on 12.03.15 at 12:05 am

#123 Everyone…

Means testing..

Wow. If this has an outside chance of happening, I haven’t been paranoid for a reason all these years…

#129 common sense on 12.03.15 at 12:13 am

Would love to read the “BEST OF” Smoking Man’s deletes.

Especially the self deleted ones..maybe categorize them based on the number of drinks consumed prior to posting.

Could be a best seller…just in time for Xmas.

#130 Alvina Knows on 12.03.15 at 12:22 am

#126 bdy sktn on 12.03.15 at 12:02 am

This could be one of Mark’s statistical mirage (SM) cases. He can explain SM or you are welcome to read his SM wiki page contributions.

Based on SM, the odds that any RE market is still climbing is about as likely as finding a nickel slot machine in Casino Moose Jaw.

that he is known to pound the table

#131 all it takes on 12.03.15 at 12:32 am

All it would take is just 1 month of every buyer of real estate in Vancouver to just step back and watch people panic. Yup one month of no sales and all hell would break loose. I say new years resolution for the month of January stop bidding and start popping pop corn. Pass this on

#132 Jon B on 12.03.15 at 12:36 am

T2 is still untested and unpredictable. The next six months are going to get very interesting from an economic standpoint. GT’s daily briefing is always appreciated.

#133 S.Bby on 12.03.15 at 12:42 am

#110 Smoking Man
DELETED (at the request of the author)
=============================
Well that’s a first…

#134 Bob dog on 12.03.15 at 12:52 am

How can priced drop by only 5%? Who are the halfwits paying 95% of the peak price. 200k in northern Alberta is too much.

#135 Vanreal on 12.03.15 at 1:32 am

#122 Marc. What are you smoking. I honestly don’t know how you can make such absurd claims. Vancouver is falling across the spectrum??? You are so out of touch it’s laughable.

#136 Cold as Ice on 12.03.15 at 1:32 am

Canada is not a nice place you know. It is cold here, extremely cold. People from Syria enjoy a warm climate and they are going to hate it here. They will all want to get back to Syria as soon as possible. Already many have expressed the desire to rather stay in the camps in Europe than to want to experience Canada. I don’t blame them!

#137 Sideshow Rob on 12.03.15 at 1:32 am

Serious question. Is the refugee immigration thing being done partially as a back door prop up of the housing market? You have to admit there will be many thousands of rental units being filled at top dollar. Any self respecting businessman can smell a g-man coming a mile away so you know the price goes up as soon as they realized what’s coming. You have to admit the rental market will suddenly get very tight and all the Trump wanna be’s will get bailed out because they will be sucking in government money and won’t be sitting on empty units burning cash. Am I barking up the wrong tree here?

#138 chapter 9 on 12.03.15 at 1:37 am

#117 Bringemallin

Second shooter in California,Tayyeep Bin Ardogan 28 from Qatar.

#139 Balls of steel | Realties.ca on 12.03.15 at 1:45 am

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/12/02/balls-of-steel/ […]

#140 Nagraj on 12.03.15 at 1:49 am

#125 BDY SKTN:
Dear Mr. BoDYSKin TighteNer,

How are you? Nice to hear from you.

Re your query as to the correct spelling of my nom-de-plume, it’s Nagraj, not Nograj.
Are you by any chance Danish? Nograj seems to be a Danish comedian. If you are Danish, when you make Danish ham-in-beer, do you use Carlsberg?

All for now, your friend, Nagraj.

#141 BS on 12.03.15 at 1:53 am

the only people making money are those converting the asset into cash. — Garth

Garth your statement is not true. It’s like saying Warren Buffet is not a billionaire because he has not sold his stock holdings and convert them into cash.

Warren buffets assets have earnings and pay dividends which increase every year. That earnings growth is reflected in the asset price. Those are real gains because the earnings and cash income has actually increased supporting the asset price.

The earnings (rent) of Vancouver houses have not gone up. Only the potential selling price has gone up. In this case to realize any gain you must sell the house. For those that do not sell they have gained nothing. They still have the same crappy house to live in which will fetch the same rent. No extra cash flow from holding the house.

Is that so hard to understand?

#142 Balmuto on 12.03.15 at 2:16 am

Hate the CAD? Maybe you don’t hate it enough:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-03/loonie-bears-aren-t-nearly-bearish-enough-morgan-stanley-says

#143 Great Canadian Bubble Co. on 12.03.15 at 2:26 am

I hope this is true. He really will need balls to implement it though. The average person rarely knows what is good for them when it comes to this kind of market. Many will see it as stealing from their net worth, or affecting their retirement plans (AKA house appreciation to infinity).

The FIRE industry is also pretty powerful and will fight this tooth and nail along with the Media. There is a lot of money tied up in this and they have a lot of lobbying power.

Good luck JT

#144 whitehorn on 12.03.15 at 2:37 am

#5 Squirrel Soup on 12.02.15 at 2:58 pm
Well it was your CON buddies who started the whole thing with 40yr mortgages…
—————————————————————–
Agree totally, this was in my opinion one of the worst decisions the CON did while in power, especially doing this when the economy was probably at its all time strongest times. I can’t think of a stronger time in the economy i.e. 2004ish since I entered the workforce in the early 90’s. This helped the GDP numbers substantially which has pros and cons. This benefitted many people of the time, don’t get me wrong, but were going to pay for it now going forward. I can see real estate being stagnate and go lower for the next 10 years, similar to the early 90’s.

#145 I am the Babblemaster on 12.03.15 at 3:28 am

“The Hot One might balk at such a fundamental cold shower for the one segment of the economy – snorfling debt and bidding on houses – that continues to expand. Then again, he might decide to do the right thing.” – Garth

—————————————————–

Might balk? There is NO WAY that any government in power would do anything to kill this economic golden goose.

#146 squirrel soup on 12.03.15 at 3:32 am

#123 BurnabyGuy on 12.02.15 at 11:57 pm

the only people making money are those converting the asset into cash. — Garth

Garth your statement is not true. It’s like saying Warren Buffet is not a billionaire because he has not sold his stock holdings and convert them into cash.

WB does not own only one thing. — Garth
—— – _ _ – _ _ _
He owns every thing!

#147 Leo Trollstoy on 12.03.15 at 4:18 am

#126 bdy sktn on 12.03.15 at 12:02 am

Some people just aren’t great at identifying winning trends.

#148 Jay on 12.03.15 at 6:50 am

I’m in the extreme minority, but suddenly I’m glad I bought a house in a cheap market with a 20% down payment and locked in the rate for 10 years.

#149 Randy on 12.03.15 at 8:24 am

#70 Stephen Harp the hERald sings on 12.02.15 at 7:51 pm

“I can’t wait to see the reaction of your HOT Prime Minister when this all blows up which it will, debt and more debt to keep this boat floating. ”

And will you be smart enough to remember that Harper is the one who brought the debt on?

Reminder: Harper took Canada from a surplus to 170 BILLION deficit. Yes, that’s what Harper did to YOU.

And that’s what Mr Trudeau’s team has inherited.

Fixing what Harper did to you likely will be painful. But you can’t blame our new government for that mess. Responsibility for the mess rests squarely on Harper’s shoulders.

#150 Ralph Cramdown on 12.03.15 at 8:40 am

#74 Gray Man — “If you really want to know read ; The creature from Jekyll island By G. Edward Griffin”

It is rare and unorthodox to offer a book review on a book I haven’t read, I know. But this particular title has been mentioned so many times by a motley collection of sad sack losers all over the internet that I feel it is my duty to warn. “Read this book” is not an excuse for being on the wrong side of the market for over half a decade. It is not an excuse for having your assets taken from you, and your ass handed to you by the horde that preys on goldbugs by taking their paper dollars in exchange for depreciating metal.

I don’t know whether losers are particularly attracted to this book, or whether its content turns otherwise sane people INTO losers — and I’d advise you all not to try to find out. It deserves a place on every loser’s bookshelf, next to other classics such as “How to Lose Friends and Piss off People” and “Don’t Think, and Stay Poor.”

#151 Ralph Cramdown on 12.03.15 at 8:45 am

#117 Bringemallin — “First shooter identified in San Bernadino mass killing…Sayid Faroouk……could be an 80 year old Swedish woman as far as the PC crowd is concerned.”

Mass murder is America’s national pastime, and for too long it has been dominated by white males of Christian heritage, rather than being reflective of the country’s great melting pot. We should be cheering these breakthroughs, not denigrating them.

#152 Victor V on 12.03.15 at 9:23 am

Liberals back away from vow to keep deficits under $10 billion

http://ipolitics.ca/2015/12/02/liberals-back-away-from-vow-to-keep-deficits-under-10-billion/

#153 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.03.15 at 9:36 am

@#110 Smoking Man
DELETED (at the request of the author)

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Let me guess. Smokey said,
“I’m taking my billions elsewhere!”

ooops

#154 JSS on 12.03.15 at 9:37 am

Holy shit, look at these dividend increases announced this morning:

Enbridge (+14%)
CIBC (+3%)
Canadian Western Bank (+5%)

Merry Christmas!

#155 jess on 12.03.15 at 9:41 am

the ‘elephant’ transfer

http://www.fca.org.uk/static/documents/final-notices/barclays-bank-nov-2015.pdf

#156 lfy on 12.03.15 at 10:01 am

Politicians are like accountants, if you do not like the flavor they will turn around with procedures, words or accounts and will give you another view, but the core is the same damn thing.

I read in the newspaper that they are taking care of the nannygate.

-Is it the same guy who about this subject contradicted himself with his current actions and the words he spoke to the masses?

-Please vote for me, I will bring change by increasing the taxes and emptying your wallet.

#157 TurnerNation on 12.03.15 at 10:19 am

In Soviet Alberta now home own you :-(

Let’s hear again how Greece had it coming?

#158 Ole Doberman on 12.03.15 at 10:40 am

Gartho BNN is confirming foreign buyers are propelling the real estate market:

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/12/3/The-impact-of-foreign-money-on-Canadas-housing-sector-.aspx

I wanna see Garth on BNN to set the record straight – perhaps with the beautiful Catherine Murray.

There’s no ‘confirmation’ in that article. And people who watch BNN (there are not many) should really get a life. — Garth

#159 unbalanced on 12.03.15 at 11:07 am

I just love coming here and reading all the comments. It makes me all warm and fuzzy. Especially the same old same old name calling. Just like growing up in the 60’s and saying my daddy is bigger than your daddy. Or,my Baba makes better perogies than your Baba. This blog reminds me of a bunch of overgrown kids. Canadians spoke out and voted for a new prime minister. People got tired by the old one. Ya don’t like this one. Vote him out. Give him enough rope and he will hang himself. Anyways this blog is free and much appreciated when investing is the topic.

#160 skin tight body on 12.03.15 at 11:09 am

#139 Nagraj on 12.03.15 at 1:49 am
#125 BDY SKTN:
Dear Mr. BoDYSKin TighteNer,
——————————————-
was thinking of ‘jargon’ spelled backwards. guess i was wrong. (it happened once in the 90’s too!)

/////////////

anybody else get some costco? nice move on sales numbers

#161 IHCTD9 on 12.03.15 at 11:09 am

Moredough says 10 Billion annual spending deficit election promise is out the window.

Well, that happened a lot quicker than I expected…

#162 skin tight body on 12.03.15 at 11:12 am

cpd getting smacked again 12.69 – still waiting for entry but lower levels ahead.

#163 IHCTD9 on 12.03.15 at 11:22 am

#136 Sideshow Rob on 12.03.15 at 1:32 am
Serious question. Is the refugee immigration thing being done partially as a back door prop up of the housing market? You have to admit there will be many thousands of rental units being filled at top dollar. Any self respecting businessman can smell a g-man coming a mile away so you know the price goes up as soon as they realized what’s coming. You have to admit the rental market will suddenly get very tight and all the Trump wanna be’s will get bailed out because they will be sucking in government money and won’t be sitting on empty units burning cash. Am I barking up the wrong tree here?
_______________________

A Syrian family was sponsored privately to come to my area and are already here. The family is 13 persons (11 kids). I wonder what the typical Syrian family size is – and if it is 8,9,10+ kids – what kind of apartments will these folks be stuffed into? Are they planning a little “laxation” of rules regarding how many bodies you can pound into a two bedroom apartment?

The family out my way have an entire house that was donated to them – they are jammed in there like sardines…

We are likely never going to know the actual extent of the costs associated with this ideological effort.

I think I’m going to swing by the Airbase on the way home and have a look at these boxes the Syrians will be calling home.

#164 bdy sktrn on 12.03.15 at 11:29 am

our new overlords:

on syrian bombing : “our 2% contribution is inconsequential , makes no difference to the big picture

on CO2 emissions : “our 1.5% contribution is very significant, it’s crucial we do our part or else we all die.

#165 IHCTD9 on 12.03.15 at 11:33 am

“The rest of the market may not appreciate just how much competitiveness Canada has lost in manufacturing,” Evan Brown, Morgan Stanley’s co-head of U.S. foreign-exchange strategy, said from New York.”
_______________________________________

– I agree. If these guys above end up being wrong, it will be because sweat shops in Toronto are taking up the slack for real manufactures.

#166 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 11:39 am

#156 TurnerNation on 12.03.15 at 10:19 am
In Soviet Alberta now home own you :-(

Let’s hear again how Greece had it coming?
………………………..

With the Marxist running the show.
Canada is going Greek style.

#167 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 11:45 am

#150 Ralph Cramdown on 12.03.15 at 8:45 am
#117 Bringemallin — “First shooter identified in San Bernadino mass killing…Sayid Faroouk……could be an 80 year old Swedish woman as far as the PC crowd is concerned.”

Mass murder is America’s national pastime, and for too long it has been dominated by white males of Christian heritage, rather than being reflective of the country’s great melting pot. We should be cheering these breakthroughs, not denigrating them.
…………………..

Hollywood always portrays the wild west as wild.
In reality it wasn’t that wild.
Everyone carried a gun, everyone behaved.

Two ways to stop mass killings.

Take every gun off everyone, get caught with one, instant firing squad.

or

Force everyone to have a gun.

Cause right now everyone is a sitting duck…..

#168 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 11:49 am

BOOM $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDCAD:CUR

#169 zee on 12.03.15 at 12:03 pm

Hey Garth

Why are preferred shares getting hammered again when all indications is that rates are on the rise.

is just tax selling?

‘Tis the season! Prefs on sale. — Garth

#170 cramar on 12.03.15 at 12:04 pm

67 wonthappenhere on 12.02.15 at 7:42 pm

i live in vancouver and our house has gone from $400,000 in 2001 to $2,500,000 today. its a 1930s bungalow on a 33 x 120 foot lot. we have done no renos since we bought the 1800 sq ft house. people have been calling for a bust for the last 10 years and each year our house goes up a few hundred grand. give up on the bust idea….prices will never fall hard here. sold signs and orange construction fences on literally every block for years.

——————

So why not sell, move to the tropics, live on a beach, and drink pina coladas every day?

#171 SWL1976 on 12.03.15 at 12:10 pm

149 Ralph Cramdown

#74 Gray Man — “If you really want to know read ; The creature from Jekyll island By G. Edward Griffin”

It is rare and unorthodox to offer a book review on a book I haven’t read, I know.

I don’t know whether losers are particularly attracted to this book, or whether its content turns otherwise sane people INTO losers — and I’d advise you all not to try to find out. It deserves a place on every loser’s bookshelf, next to other classics such as “How to Lose Friends and Piss off People” and “Don’t Think, and Stay Poor.”

Wow Ralph. I really thought you would be above this sort of thing, but I guess not.

Yeah no point in reading or learning about one of the biggest scams in modern history?

Leave that to all us losers to figure out?

I don’t like to generalize, but your type of thinking here is of the classic boomer mentality… As long as it doesn’t happen during my time.

Fact is any half wit with even the slightest cerebral synapses firing can clearly understand the lie that is the Federal Reserve. Why so many seemingly smart people are still so mesmerized by this institution and lie that it perpetuates is beyond me?

A lie is a lie even if everybody believes it. The truth is the truth even if nobody believes it

This paper and digital currency shuffled by the Federal Reserve in exchange for all the worlds tangible resources begins and ends with war.

If only losers can see this…

Then sadly we as a society…

Truly have lost our way

#172 MF on 12.03.15 at 12:17 pm

#150 Ralph Cramdown on 12.03.15 at 8:45 am

And your point is?

Life is precious, regardless of which disgusting human being commits these mass murders.

Because, according to you, “white christian men” usually commit murders like the one last night, “other” people get some free pass? Disgusting.

The first step to finding a solution is to recognize and acknowledge the problem, not deflect or make excuses.

MF

#173 MF on 12.03.15 at 12:21 pm

#170 SWL1976 on 12.03.15 at 12:10 pm

Got any proof of that though? Any evidence that “The Fed” is responsible for war? That’s where these theories fall apart. No proof of anything except logical coincidences and bigotry from the losers of society. Cramdown is correct.

MF

#174 cramar on 12.03.15 at 12:27 pm

#87 IKnow on 12.02.15 at 8:44 pm

Tens of thousands of house owners in YVR enjoyed +500k to +2M increase in house wealth. So minor legislation change or interest rate increase will have absolutely NO impact on SFH prices. As I said always, nothing short of atomic war or super virus would stop YVR house price increase.

Remember those words. — Garth

—————

You forgot to include the Big One also known as a “megathrust event”.

http://www.sfu.ca/geog/geog351fall12/project15/

#175 young & foolish on 12.03.15 at 12:34 pm

It’s not only housing that’s overvalued …. looked at Silicon Valley valuations lately?

#176 Squirrel Soup on 12.03.15 at 12:34 pm

Yeah baby T2, burn that jet fuel……

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/michael-smyth-canadas-massive-paris-contingent-almost-outnumbers-france

#177 Ronaldo on 12.03.15 at 12:37 pm

Winners and losers of rising interest rates. Good article.

http://time.com/money/3749580/higher-rates-winners-losers/

#178 noel on 12.03.15 at 12:40 pm

http://www.thestar.com/business/2015/12/03/gta-sets-new-annual-home-sales-record-in-november.html

Another month another record. Expect the YYZ market to heat up even further if macroprudential changes are in fact suggested.

First, they’ll announce that they will be raising the minimum downpayment a few months in the future as a ‘recommendation’, causing even more people to pile in with 5% borrowed from their parents.

Second, it will go through a series of reviews, and the recommendation will not be passed for some reason or another. Pressure from the CMHC perhaps? Some other lobbying group opposed to it?

Third, the government will suggest some other form of property market cooling may come into effect down the road.

Repeat.

#179 Squirrel Soup on 12.03.15 at 12:41 pm

#170 SWL1976 on 12.03.15 at 12:10 pm

149 Ralph Cramdown

#74 Gray Man — “If you really want to know read ; The creature from Jekyll island By G. Edward Griffin”

It is rare and unorthodox to offer a book review on a book I haven’t read, I know.

I don’t know whether losers are particularly attracted to this book, or whether its content turns otherwise sane people INTO losers — and I’d advise you all not to try to find out. It deserves a place on every loser’s bookshelf, next to other classics such as “How to Lose Friends and Piss off People” and “Don’t Think, and Stay Poor.”

Wow Ralph. I really thought you would be above this sort of thing, but I guess not.

Yeah no point in reading or learning about one of the biggest scams in modern history?

Leave that to all us losers to figure out?

I don’t like to generalize, but your type of thinking here is of the classic boomer mentality… As long as it doesn’t happen during my time.

Fact is any half wit with even the slightest cerebral synapses firing can clearly understand the lie that is the Federal Reserve. Why so many seemingly smart people are still so mesmerized by this institution and lie that it perpetuates is beyond me?

A lie is a lie even if everybody believes it. The truth is the truth even if nobody believes it

This paper and digital currency shuffled by the Federal Reserve in exchange for all the worlds tangible resources begins and ends with war.

If only losers can see this…

Then sadly we as a society…

Truly have lost our way
—————-
Maybe it’s a giant conspiracy run by the bilderberg folks

#180 Doug in London on 12.03.15 at 12:43 pm

@JSS, Post #153:
Yes, and Enbridge stock is ON SALE right now! Now you know why I believe in Santa Claus!

#181 bdy sktn on 12.03.15 at 12:45 pm

#175 Squirrel Soup on 12.03.15 at 12:34 pm
Yeah baby T2, burn that jet fuel……
————————————————–

Canada (383) has sent more people to Paris than Australia (46), the U.K. (96), the U.S. (148), Russia (313) and almost as many as host-country France (396)

shameful.

#182 bdy sktn on 12.03.15 at 12:48 pm

You forgot to include the Big One also known as a “megathrust event”.
————————————-
the moment richmond goes underwater the rest of 604 pops 40% overnight. supply and demand.

#183 Popeye the sailor man on 12.03.15 at 12:52 pm

#66 wonthappenhere on 12.02.15 at 7:42 pm

Timing the peak of any market is hard. Examine yourself is greed getting in the way by thinking you will miss out on that last 100K gain. If you wait to long then you might be chasing the market down when you do sell. selling your 400k home for 2.5M with a tax free gain of 2.1M might be your best move in your life. Sell maybe move some ware cheaper like Vancouver island and retire or semi-retire. You just won the lottery!!!

#184 SWL1976 on 12.03.15 at 12:52 pm

#172 MF

#170 SWL1976 on 12.03.15 at 12:10 pm

Got any proof of that though? Any evidence that “The Fed” is responsible for war? That’s where these theories fall apart. No proof of anything except logical coincidences and bigotry from the losers of society. Cramdown is correct.

MF

The 2003 US invasion of Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11, democracy or freedom of anyone. It did however have everything to do with the Petroldollar and Sadam selling oil in Euro’s rather than USD. Not long after Iraq was ‘liberated’ by the US, oil was once again sold in USD and the status quo maintained…

The current mess, and perpetual war in a foreign land.

Of course you won’t find that anywhere in the MSM

#185 TurnerNation on 12.03.15 at 1:01 pm

Post #88 smoking mans should be pinned on this forum.
Their plan is clear: Kanada is not to be as a manufacturing country.

Who is They? Very rich gangs above our elected officials in the pyramid.

#186 TurnerNation on 12.03.15 at 1:03 pm

Some GO train fares increasing by 5%. Poor Track6ers.

Union and party largess. Remember the elites want 100% of our money. Slow burn.

#187 Ronaldo on 12.03.15 at 1:09 pm

#170 SWL1976 on 12.03.15 at 12:10 pm

”Fact is any half wit with even the slightest cerebral synapses firing can clearly understand the lie that is the Federal Reserve. Why so many seemingly smart people are still so mesmerized by this institution and lie that it perpetuates is beyond me?”

Even former chairman of the Fed, Paul Volcher referred to the Fed as an insidious institution when questioned by a reporter if he was a member of the Bilderberg organization. His response was something to the effect, “I’m a member of the Federal Reserve, the most insidious of all”.

http://freedomoutpost.com/2014/11/federal-reserve-heart-debt-enslavement-system-dominates-lives/

#188 Doug in London on 12.03.15 at 1:12 pm

@young & foolish, post #174:
Why would anyone want to buy either, when there are much better deals out there now like CPD, XPF, ENB, PPL, or TRP just to name a few?

#189 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 1:18 pm

Second favorite thing to do, next to posting on here.

Chirping Wynne on here twitter account.

Seems I’m not the only one….WOW she’s taken a beating.

#190 young & foolish on 12.03.15 at 1:21 pm

Equity markets are all about central banks any more … and not just here. Forget about honest valuations.

#191 IHCTD9 on 12.03.15 at 1:26 pm

#163 bdy sktrn on 12.03.15 at 11:29 am
our new overlords:

on syrian bombing : “our 2% contribution is inconsequential , makes no difference to the big picture

on CO2 emissions : “our 1.5% contribution is very significant, it’s crucial we do our part or else we all die.

___________________________________________

A full encyclopedia set worth of information in just two sentences right there.

And he’s just off the starting blocks…

#192 Ralph Cramdown on 12.03.15 at 1:33 pm

#170 SWL1976 — “Yeah no point in reading or learning about one of the biggest scams in modern history? Leave that to all us losers to figure out?”

I checked out your blog, linked from your handle in your posts.

Not to put too fine a point on it, you are exactly the kind of crank I envisioned when I wrote my post. Monsanto and the US military are spraying us all from high altitudes, Agenda 21 is a threat to our precious bodily fluids, the Bilderberg Group is a huge conspiracy, the government is going to microchip us, and Walmart plumbing problems are a New World Order conspiracy? You wrote your MP about chemtrails? Buddy, if there really is a giant global conspiracy, that’s one way of getting yourself on their shit list.

As Frasier Crane used to say, “seek professional help!”

#193 MF on 12.03.15 at 1:40 pm

#181 SWL1976 on 12.03.15 at 12:52 pm

Yeah but we have the benefit of looking back in hindsight and seeing where the US went wrong. Iraq was a failure, yes, but what would we be saying if the country was prosperous and democratic post Saddam? We would be cheering the US, and Bush jr would have been hailed as a Nobel laureate.

What about Russia’s invasion of Afghanistan, or their support for Iran and Syria? Are they also part of the Fed?

It’s easy to look back and assign all kinds of reasoning but the fact remains that even though other theories make sense (petrodollar one is logical), the most likely theory based on all evidence is still the official narrative (post 9/11 the US trying to change the Mid East bring democracy etc.)

MF

#194 bdy sktrn on 12.03.15 at 1:40 pm

#175 Squirrel Soup on 12.03.15 at 12:34 pm
Yeah baby T2, burn that jet fuel……
——————————-
Canada (383) has sent more people to Paris than Australia (46), the U.K. (96), the U.S. (148), Russia (313) and almost as many as host-country France (396).

Not a bad turnout for a country that emits just 1.6 per cent of the planet’s greenhouse gases, eh?

Or maybe it’s not something to admire when you consider how much polluting fossil fuel was burned to fly so many hundreds of people across the ocean to talk about burning less.

Looking down the list of Canada’s participants in Paris, it’s hard not to conclude we’re vastly over-represented.

Did we really need to send the deputy environment minister for the Northwest Territories? Theclimate-change youth ambassador for the Yukon? The leader of the New Brunswick Green Party? The interim leader of the Bloc Quebecois and his press secretary? The “security co-ordinator” for Hydro-Quebec?
———————-

when i heard our recently turfed by cbc, defeated in the election, uber annoying, ex-tv weather perkette was there on our dime i was shocked. liz may invited her?!?
shameful.

#195 SWL1976 on 12.03.15 at 1:49 pm

#189 Ralph Cramdown – If you don’t stand for something you stand for nothing Ralph.

Everything I speak about is actually happening. I may not get the story right the first time but at least I am trying to figure things out and hopefully open some peoples eyes to the madness that is really going on.

Yes I know and understand that I may be on a shit list, but like I just said… If you don’t stand for something you stand for nothing

Frasier Crane. Really?

My point in my #170 post has just been proven with exceptional clarity

#196 OXI in GREECE on 12.03.15 at 1:55 pm

#196 OXI in GREECE on 12.02.15 at 3:17 pm

“There is no point on this blog. All you pro govt pro global warming pro tax the crap out of us pro govt people just call us truthers names and tinfoils……so there is no point in naming names.”

I’m most certainly not pro government, nor am I pro tax. Now I am not even pro global warming (been following the discussion on the blog closely and I am certified skeptic). Great discussions about the topic on here.

But I do not believe in some shadow figures pulling the strings. Too many variables on earth for total control over it all, and zero proof of anything beyond logical coincidences. Randomness is 100% ignored by these so called truth speakers.

MF
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Then how do you explain how large corporation executives and high political figures never seem to go to jail for the horrific crimes they commit? It just never happens. HSBC laundered 600 billion dollars. A criminal act. Not one exec was arrested. They were fined. This happens every single day of the week with guns,drugs, money laundering, oil deals, big pharma.

No one is ever arrested. But there is no one pulling the strings? If there was ever a use of “far fetched”…..this is it.

#197 SWL1976 on 12.03.15 at 1:56 pm

#189 Ralph Cramdown – Furthermore Ralph, the fact that you even acknowledge or are aware that there is indeed a shit list also proves just how messed up things really are

You really know how to prove a point

#198 OXI in GREECE on 12.03.15 at 2:01 pm

#189 Ralph Cramdown on 12.03.15 at 1:33 pm
#170 SWL1976 — “Yeah no point in reading or learning about one of the biggest scams in modern history? Leave that to all us losers to figure out?”

I checked out your blog, linked from your handle in your posts.

Not to put too fine a point on it, you are exactly the kind of crank I envisioned when I wrote my post. Monsanto and the US military are spraying us all from high altitudes, Agenda 21 is a threat to our precious bodily fluids, the Bilderberg Group is a huge conspiracy, the government is going to microchip us, and Walmart plumbing problems are a New World Order conspiracy? You wrote your MP about chemtrails? Buddy, if there really is a giant global conspiracy, that’s one way of getting yourself on their shit list.

As Frasier Crane used to say, “seek professional help!”
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Buddy the real cranks are the brainwashed masses like yourself who believe anything the govt tells you. All you need to do is look at some as simple as:

man made CO2 per year – 75 giga tons
active volcanoes CO2 per year – 900 giga tons

and that is just volcanoes. There are many other natural CO2 sources. Very simple to understand. But the “brainwashed masses” keep hearing “man made climate change” a thousand times a day from the media and govt so it must be true right?

The real cranks…..are the brainwashed. You decide which one you are……

#199 BillyBob on 12.03.15 at 2:02 pm

cramar on 12.03.15 at 12:27 pm
#87 IKnow on 12.02.15 at 8:44 pm

Tens of thousands of house owners in YVR enjoyed +500k to +2M increase in house wealth. So minor legislation change or interest rate increase will have absolutely NO impact on SFH prices. As I said always, nothing short of atomic war or super virus would stop YVR house price increase.

Remember those words. — Garth

—————

You forgot to include the Big One also known as a “megathrust event”.

====================================

Y’know, sometimes this stuff just writes itself.

“megathrust event” though, is just too big a softball lobbed out there for me to take a swing at. *sigh*

SM, loving the USDCAD ride downnnn…I may not have won the home lottery in YVR, but I won one when I moved away from Canada years ago to get paid in USD…the big planes and exotic women are really just a nice frill. ;-)

#200 Karl hungus on 12.03.15 at 2:03 pm

Poloz said he will not follow the US on rate hikes. You’re gonna be wrong on this one Garth. 91% of the time Canada follows the US blah blah blah

Our bond market will follow the US one. Thus mortgage rates will rise. Next year the BoC will raise its rate, unless Canada is sinking. Then we all have bigger issues to worry about. — Garth

#201 pete on 12.03.15 at 2:08 pm

Garth you are really ahead of the game. Yesterday’s blogs by Garth is today’s news.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cdhowe-tax-analysis-1.3348755

#202 Shirley Valentine on 12.03.15 at 2:10 pm

#186 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 1:18 pm

Second favorite thing to do, next to posting on here.

Chirping Wynne on here twitter account.

Seems I’m not the only one….WOW she’s taken a beating.
——————-
She must read every word from the Smokey man!

#203 bdy sktrn on 12.03.15 at 2:14 pm

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/syrian-refugees-lukewarm-on-coming-to-canada-by-december-31-officials-say

Thousands of Syrians desperate for new life turn down resettling in Canada, UN says

Less than 5% of those the UN initially tried to contact said they wanted to come to Canada by Dec. 31, says a senior United Nations refugee official

…phone calls asking if the identified Syrians were interested in coming to Canada by Dec. 31, they found only about 28,000 of those phone numbers worked.

Even then, only 3,049 agreed to meet with UN officials for an interview. And of those, only 1,801 said they wanted to come to Canada

——————————-
t2 might not find enough willing folks to meet his 25k!

after all it’s still warm and there is plenty of juice for charging phones.

#204 Pre-Retiree on 12.03.15 at 2:28 pm

#120 Nagraj (admidettly not your real name). Photo: why are the two i’s in the word “Biting” missing their dots, whereas the two i’s in “Kissing” are very heavily dotted?
_____________

The dots on the i’s in the word “kissing” are small hearts.

#205 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.03.15 at 2:39 pm

ISIS is advising their sleepers to legally change their Arab names to avoid detection.
One of the suggested names: James Fennymore Knickerbocker.

#206 NotAGreaterFool on 12.03.15 at 2:50 pm

CMCH says impact of foreign investors to Canadian condo market is nil.

http://www.cmhc.ca/en/hoficlincl/observer/observer_025.cfm?utm_source=observer-en&utm_medium=link&utm_campaign=obs-20151203-foreign-owned-condos

Some key results of the fall 2015 survey indicate:
•Shares of foreign ownership of condominium apartments remained low in the CMAs surveyed.
•Share of foreign ownership ranged from zero per cent in the Regina CMA to 3.3% and 3.5% in the Toronto and Vancouver CMAs, respectively.

#207 Keith in Calgary on 12.03.15 at 2:53 pm

http://calgaryherald.com/business/real-estate/foreign-ownership-in-calgary-condo-market-on-the-rise

“Realtots” are trying to use the HAM meme in Calgary now that sales are way down……………

#208 paul on 12.03.15 at 3:02 pm

#200 bdy sktrn on 12.03.15 at 2:14 pm

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/syrian-refugees-lukewarm-on-coming-to-canada-by-december-31-officials-say

Thousands of Syrians desperate for new life turn down resettling in Canada, UN says

Less than 5% of those the UN initially tried to contact said they wanted to come to Canada by Dec. 31, says a senior United Nations refugee official

…phone calls asking if the identified Syrians were interested in coming to Canada by Dec. 31, they found only about 28,000 of those phone numbers worked.

Even then, only 3,049 agreed to meet with UN officials for an interview. And of those, only 1,801 said they wanted to come to Canada

——————————-
t2 might not find enough willing folks to meet his 25k!

after all it’s still warm and there is plenty of juice for charging phones
———————————————————–This is the bull shit Justin is doing, They are in such bad shape they don’t want to leave Syria lol
So I guess the ones that do jump on the plane will be the very people we don’t WANT

#209 Ralph Cramdown on 12.03.15 at 3:05 pm

The great thing about cranks is that so many of them are willing to self-identify. They truly have no self awareness of just how crazy they sound.

When I’m not an expert in a field, I look at data and the consensus of experts. Sometimes the consensus is wrong, but usually it’s right, and that’s the way to bet.

#210 paul on 12.03.15 at 3:12 pm

“Over the past 250 years, humans have added just one part of CO2 in 10,000 to the atmosphere. One volcanic cough can do this in a day.”

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2009-08-13/29320

#211 Ralph Cramdown on 12.03.15 at 3:27 pm

#166 Smoking Man — “Two ways to stop mass killings.”

Americans don’t want to stop mass killings. If they did, they’d have done something by now — it certainly isn’t a difficult problem.

Like I said, it’s their national pastime. Multiple police forces are right now spending hundreds of man hours investigating the motives of two shooters who, being dead, will never face trial. The nation breathlessly awaits. Gun aficionados and sociopaths are debating the relative merits of the weapons used in hundreds of chat rooms, media gets more eyeballs reminding everyone that it’s the biggest event since _____, politicians are getting some airtime by commenting, and the NRA is writing a fundraising letter. Every actor knows hir part and his lines, because they’ve practised so many times before.

#212 Big Dipper on 12.03.15 at 3:32 pm

#195, OXI in GREECE on 12.03.15 at 2:01 pm

“All you need to do is look at some as simple as:
man made CO2 per year – 75 giga tons
active volcanoes CO2 per year – 900 giga tons ”

————————————

Crap, you’re right OXI! How could those stupid climate scientist overlook something as simple as that! Obviously it’s a global conspiracy driven scam!

But wait! You neglected to give a reference, or a source, for these remarkable numbers. Could you please provide? And I mean real numbers from real scientist and not from the pseudoscience, conspiracy theory based, nut case sources you climate change deniers like to quote from.

Thanks!

#213 Sheane Wallace on 12.03.15 at 3:36 pm

CMHC is now predicting 26 % price decline and 12 % unemployment if oil prices stay bellow 35 $ for the next 5 years,

They probably expect 52 % decline and 15 % unemployment anyway but are intentionally announcing lower numbers and are looking for an excuse (blame it on the oil prices)

The actual outcome could be in 70% decline and 18-25 % unemployment. Then CMHC will say: we warned you, it just turned out a ‘little’ worse than we expected.

Imagine where the Loonie exchange rate is going to be. (hint: in the 0. fifties range?)

#214 MF on 12.03.15 at 3:50 pm

#193 OXI in GREECE on 12.03.15 at 1:55 pm

Yeah but OXI your mixing apples and oranges. Does curruption exist? Of course. Does white collar crime get treated differently than blue? Of course. Lots of proof of these things.

But those are different issues than believing there is some conspiracy and shadow government that is pulling the strings. No proof of the that at all besides assumptions.

MF

#215 Nemesis on 12.03.15 at 4:08 pm

#DisconsolateWithHisWaningMegaThrust… #CaptainBillyBobResolvesToAcquireThe… #MassiveOrdancePenetrator!…

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/boeing-expects-more-massive-ordnance-penetrator-orders-412453/

[NoteToGT: You’d never guess that men are responsible for naming these things, would you?]

#216 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 12.03.15 at 4:11 pm

If you don’t understand how the bond market ultimately dictates interest rates you set yourself up to be bitch slapped by the single biggest free market on the planet.

Rates will rise and there is absolutely nothing anyone or any government can do about it.

SHIFT happens };-)

#217 notagreaterfool on 12.03.15 at 4:18 pm

re: # 197..

Poloz had a statement about divergence from the FED. Think this will be true for 1 year but then he will need to adjust.

What does anyone expect him to say? That he’s a US lackey? — Garth

#218 ARP on 12.03.15 at 4:19 pm

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/las-vegas-housing-market-distress-eases-without-wrecking-affordability-2015-12-03

Reading this article on the LV housing market, I can’t help get the feeling that it eerily hints at warnings of the future in a couple of our large markets. All cash buyers? Bidding wars? Multiple offers? Prices can only go up?

~70% of all homes in negative equity back at the peak of 2012, down to “only” 25% of all homes now.

**We’re also seeing fewer cash buyers than in past years. In fact, cash sales for October were around 31% of existing home sales in our market as compared with one year ago when it was at 35%. That’s near a five-year low and it’s less than half of what it was back in February of 2013 when cash buyers peaked at almost 60%. For those of you who remember, that also meant multiple offers, where listings were gold and cash was king. Ultimately, investors and flippers are still a factor in our housing market more than anywhere else in the nation.**

#219 Ralph Cramdown on 12.03.15 at 4:20 pm

#190 MF — “Yeah but we have the benefit of looking back in hindsight and seeing where the US went wrong. Iraq was a failure, yes, but what would we be saying if the country was prosperous and democratic post Saddam?”

I don’t think one needed a huge amount of foresight to see that disaster coming. Before the war even started, we had:

Tim Russert: If your analysis is not correct, and we’re not treated as liberators, but as conquerors, and the Iraqis begin to resist, particularly in Baghdad, do you think the American people are prepared for a long, costly, and bloody battle with significant American casualties?

Vice President Cheney: Well, I don’t think it’s likely to unfold that way, Tim, because I really do believe that we will be greeted as liberators.

And surely I’m not the only one who remembers Eric Shinseki, US Army Chief of Staff, saying the occupation would require two to three times the number of ground troops that Rumsfeld and Wolfowitz planned on, and being ignored?

#220 kommykim on 12.03.15 at 4:32 pm

RE:

#195 OXI in GREECE on 12.03.15 at 2:01 pm
man made CO2 per year – 75 giga tons
active volcanoes CO2 per year – 900 giga tons

You’d better check your source. Your data is WRONG.

#221 young & foolish on 12.03.15 at 4:37 pm

Where is all the boomer money supposed to go? The greatest transfer of wealth is happening right about now … and people are choosing RE because they don’t trust the equity markets. At least helping the kids buy over priced houses is doing something helpful (or seems to be).

Markets? Well, they aren’t going anywhere soon.

#222 young & foolish on 12.03.15 at 4:40 pm

You guys think housing will go down after a rate increase but markets have it “priced in”? Wait and see.

Totally false. Most people expect rates to stay put. — Garth

#223 jess on 12.03.15 at 4:41 pm

Gives advice to whistleblowers
Ken Rijock. Decorated Vietnam veteran. High flying lawyer. And one of the world’s biggest money launderers.
Ex-Con is Now a Crime Consultant, Helping Investigators Follow the Money Trail

http://www.taxjustice.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/TJF_2015_10-2.pdf
============

Confessions of a Former Money Launderer
Ex-Con is Now a Crime Consultant, Helping Investigators Follow the Money Trail Linda McGlasson • April 14, 2008

creative eh?

Another obscure money laundering tactic is international product diversion. For example, a cereal maker has three trains full of cereal that is about to expire. They don’t want to lose the money and want some way to get part of their cost back. Sometime they donate them to charity, but most times they will try to resell them in other markets. So the cereal maker is looking at a $2 million cost, $16 million in retail sales. Someone writes the cereal maker a letter from Nigeria and wants to pay them something for that cereal. The cereal maker sells out the entire shipment to the Nigerian at cost. Not only is the company not legitimate, but also the cereal is never shipped to Nigeria. Instead of going to Nigeria, it is re-routed to Cardiff, UK and comes back to a U.S. port, and is resold after being relabeled with new expiration dates in a chain of small grocery stories in the Northeast. The Russian mob group that organized this has made money and was successful in laundering millions in the process. ”

http://www.bankinfosecurity.com/confessions-former-money-launderer-a-818/op-1

#224 jess on 12.03.15 at 4:46 pm

Court rules against Ladbrokes over £54m corporation tax avoidance scheme (3 Dec 2015)
UK Tax Tribunal Judgement – Another Deloitte tax scheme : Travel Document Service & Anor v Revenue & Customs (INCOME TAX/CORPORATION TAX : Anti-avoidance) [2015] UKFTT 582 (TC) (19 November 2015) (3 Dec 2015)

The case relates to a tax planning scheme that was promoted by Deloitte, the professional services firm, which exploited a perceived loophole in part of the tax code that dealt with the taxation of loans.
Corporation tax – tax avoidance scheme – use of total return swap over shares in subsidiary company to create a deemed creditor loan relationship – value of shares depressed by novating liability for large loans to subsidiary – creating large fair value loan relationship debit in parent company – whether loan relationship had unallowable purpose – subsidiary incurred interest charges on novated loans – whether interest charges also disallowed as loan relationship debits having unallowable purposes – appeal dismissed

http://www.bailii.org/cgi-bin/markup.cgi?doc=/uk/cases/UKFTT/TC/2015/TC04728.html&query=ladbroke&method=boolean
https://www.accountancylive.com/court-rules-against-ladbrokes-over-%C2%A354m-corporation-tax-avoidance-scheme

=

#225 Broke Dick on 12.03.15 at 4:48 pm

Hi Garth,
My agoraphobia is not too bad today, seeing that all the nutbars are on your blog instead of being outside.

#226 Smoking Man on 12.03.15 at 4:51 pm

#202 MF on 12.03.15 at 3:50 pm
#193 OXI in GREECE on 12.03.15 at 1:55 pm

Yeah but OXI your mixing apples and oranges. Does curruption exist? Of course. Does white collar crime get treated differently than blue? Of course. Lots of proof of these things.

But those are different issues than believing there is some conspiracy and shadow government that is pulling the strings. No proof of the that at all besides assumptions.

MF
…………….

We know what happens to the heads of kings when the herd is hungry.

Modern day rulers are smarter , kings of empires hide behind the scenes, they have these little dogs called politicians, who are disposable.

5 MSM outlets singing in perfect harmony, If you don’t think there is a force behind the scenes, then your an Idiot, yet you don’t strike me as an Idiot.

Hum what am I to make of this? :)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bilderberg_Group

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trilateral_Commission

#227 TurnerNation on 12.03.15 at 5:07 pm

About climate science bias. ..the book Secret History of War on Cancer suggests research funds directed towards treatments and not to cures. And to get money you must play along. Group think.

#228 bdy sktrn on 12.03.15 at 5:08 pm

#206 Ralph Cramdown on 12.03.15 at 3:05 pm

When I’m not an expert in a field, I look at data and the consensus of experts. ***Sometimes the consensus is wrong***, but usually it’s right, and that’s the way to bet.
————————————-
bingo – shitty ‘scientists’ came running to this new ‘field’ of science since they were, like mark, mostly unemployed at making real things. there’s your ‘consensus’ .

ask 10 physics/eng phd’s who are not on the climate payroll and see what real science says. you’d be surprised.

—————
nordic get your ass shot off land makes usa mass shooting slouches by comparison??!? (the things one can find on that internets!)

While the U.S. has had more mass shootings in terms of raw numbers than other countries, at least three European countries—Switzerland, Norway and Finland—had higher rates of mass-shooting deaths per capita, according to researchers Jaclyn Schildkraut of the State University of New York in Oswego and H. Jaymi Elsass of Texas State University.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-leads-world-in-mass-shootings-1443905359

#229 bdy sktrn on 12.03.15 at 5:11 pm

SWL you are wrong about EVERYTHING else though.

#230 Ret on 12.03.15 at 5:19 pm

National Steel Car in Hamilton laying off 500 at Christmas. Slumping demand for oil tank cars.

http://www.thespec.com/news-story/6157921-national-steel-car-to-lay-off-500-for-christmas/

#231 Blacksheep on 12.03.15 at 5:20 pm

Micro houses are all the rage in Van, but this is getting out of hand:

http://vancouver.craigslist.ca/van/reo/5342778903.html

#232 SWL1976 on 12.03.15 at 5:26 pm

#206 Ralph Cramdown

The great thing about cranks is that so many of them are willing to self-identify. They truly have no self awareness of just how crazy they sound.

When I’m not an expert in a field, I look at data and the consensus of experts. Sometimes the consensus is wrong, but usually it’s right, and that’s the way to bet.

Ralph,

If you could please explain to us all why the US Federal Reserve has never been, nor ever will be audited then that may give you some credibility to your argument that only losers would understand the scam behind their money creation.

Perhaps you could also look to your data and explain the origins of the petrodollar and explain to us just what the USD is really backed by?

Besides military might.

I’m all ears, or in this case eyes Ralph, and do like to know and understand all sides to the story.

You may be content to live and perpetuate a lie Sir, but I am not.

I have been called every name in the book by misinformed members of the herd like yourself so I much prefer to debate the subject matter rather than resort half witted jokes that are only intended in changing the subject.

The further a society drifts from the truth the more it will hate those who speak it

#233 bdy sktrn on 12.03.15 at 5:39 pm

#227 Blacksheep on 12.03.15 at 5:20 pm
Micro houses are all the rage in Van, but this is getting out of hand:

http://vancouver.craigslist.ca/van/reo/5342778903.html
—————————
but the location!!!

#234 Mark on 12.03.15 at 5:39 pm

“Next year the BoC will raise its rate, unless Canada is sinking. Then we all have bigger issues to worry about. — Garth”

Good to see that you qualified your comment here Garth. Because realistically, what’s the probability of Canada not sinking further with 2 of Canada’s largest contributors to GDP, the RE and the O&G sector experiencing simultaneous (and arguably, somewhat correlated) declines? The panic phase, after 2-3 years of slow-motion RE declines, now appears to be getting started in earnest. Even changes to the sales mix can no longer cover up declining RE prices in Canada’s major cities.

A lot of people swear up and down that Canada is ‘different’ than the US, but the more you look at it, the closer we seem.

“You guys think housing will go down after a rate increase but markets have it “priced in”? Wait and see.”

Housing is already going down without a rate increase. The reason is simple — overcapacity. Too many houses chasing too few buyers, a trend which receives no favours from demographics either. And a huge pipeline of new construction as well. Completely predictable that as prices fall, construction would actually accelerate as developers seek to compensate for falling margins and convert as much of their investment in plant, property and equipment to cash before an even more serious flush is applied to the market.

#235 young & foolish on 12.03.15 at 5:46 pm

Bill Gross says equities are reaching for the stars …. And when rates go up … Watch out!

Is he wrong?

Again? — Garth

#236 jess on 12.03.15 at 5:50 pm

junk-bond debacle

defaulted on $95 billion worth of debt this year, making it the largest year of defaults since the height of the credit crisis in 2009.
http://wallstreetonparade.com/

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/11/16/bloodletting-eight-trading-days-in-a-row/

#237 Herb on 12.03.15 at 5:52 pm

#221 Broke Dick,

you got that right!

#238 Nagraj on 12.03.15 at 5:54 pm

#201 PRE-RETIREE

Thanks be to goodness that there’s at least a few us who can clearly distinguish between what is and what is not critically significant.

Truth to tell, PRE-RETIREE, I was aware that the two dots in Kissing were heart-shaped.
I concluded that they were added by a second party, in a prankish sort of way; the original writer, an artsy sort in a hurry, dotted no i’s at all.
Also notice that the double o’s in either Booth are not separated; tangent in the one case, slightly intersecting in the other. Gives the whole thing a cartoonish cross-eyed look.

“Balls of Steel” wasn’t a complicated post, the central message being an anticipated change re down payments, to be announced possibly in six weeks’ time.
So you and I, and a few others, may well congratulate ourselves in not using this plain post to exercise Sturm&Drang with whatever grand ideology.

And by the way, the disproportionally short crossbars on the t’s are so low that they nearly interfere with the other letters. GT who’s perennial Letmotf is “smart&sensible vs silly&stupid” cannot possibly have printed the words we are properly scrutinizing. I assume you’d agree with this final point.

– hope your retirement is not too long in coming. Do mention it in your letter to Santa. Like GT, Santa reads all his mail.

#239 slick on 12.03.15 at 5:57 pm

#82 Smoking man
Thanks, just gonna do a little cut and paste,,,,

slick

#240 Big Dipper on 12.03.15 at 6:15 pm

#215 Ralph Cramdown on 12.03.15 at 4:20 pm

“And surely I’m not the only one who remembers……”

—————————————-

That’s the issue right there. Most of society has the memory of gnats and besides – they never paid much attention in the first place.

They did not remember Vietnam and the fake Gulf of Tonkin incident. Fell for the WMD ruse and self – delusional crap from the neo-cons. All of it based on ignorance and fear.

And they’re not finished yet.

I listened this morning to Cruze et al, who, using the California shooting, argued this as proof positive that Obama is weak and a massive US invasion of Syria is mandatory.

Gad, I’m beginning to sound like a conspiracy theorist myself…..

#241 D.D. Corkum on 12.03.15 at 6:29 pm

Raising minimum down payments would go a long way to returning some sanity to this market… but it is probably political suicide to implement the proposal fully all at once.

Even if he just announced the 10% at 700K (but left it at 5% up to 699K) then it would probably achieve the cooling effect without being nearly as suicidal.

After the market cools, he could then consider adding the 7% at 500K part.

#242 Mark on 12.03.15 at 6:32 pm

“Bill Gross says equities are reaching for the stars …. And when rates go up … Watch out!”

Some equities are highly sensitive to rising long-term rates. Typically those involving the “FIRE” sector.

An easy way of determining what performs well in rising rates and what does not, is simply to look at the past 30-40 years of returns, and find the sectors that outperformed the S&P500. Those are the likely future underperformers. And the underperformers are the likely future outperformers.

There might be some exceptions, where the US has created a legitimate prowess of leadership. But sectors tend to be mean reverting over the long run in any given economy. The implication of such is that some very deeply out of favour sectors are likely to, over the next few decades of rising rates, come back into fashion and provide significant outperformance.

#243 family beagle on 12.03.15 at 6:40 pm

#67 wonthappenhere on 12.02.15 at 7:42 pm

i live in vancouver and our house has gone from $400,000 in 2001 to $2,500,000 today. its a 1930s bungalow on a 33 x 120 foot lot. we have done no renos since we bought the 1800 sq ft house. people have been calling for a bust for the last 10 years and each year our house goes up a few hundred grand. give up on the bust idea….prices will never fall hard here. sold signs and orange construction fences on literally every block for years.

——————
#169 cramar on 12.03.15 at 12:04 pm

So why not sell, move to the tropics, live on a beach, and drink pina coladas every day?

——–

Because Vancouver is and will be trailer park. I get a kick when middle class Canadians act rich. It’s cute, like a puppy.

#244 Ralph Cramdown on 12.03.15 at 6:54 pm

#228 SWL1976 — “If you could please explain to us all why the US Federal Reserve […]”

I’m not an expert. The Fed meets a bunch of times a year and sets short interest rates to try and maintain “full” employment and inflation around 2%. That’s all you need to know. It backstops the banking system, and has been fairly successful, especially compared to the pre-Fed gold standard era, which was characterized by great booms, busts and many, many bank failures.

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2014/06/17/stubborn/#comment-309615
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2012/11/16/lost-causes/#comment-207650

I’ve read over a hundred books on investing and finance, and much online as well. There seems to be an inverse correlation between how much investors talk about the Fed, and how successful they are. Warren Buffett hardly ever mentions it, and he runs a huge insurance company and a portfolio remarkably concentrated in the US. At the other end of the spectrum, managers like Eric Sprott, Peter Schiff and John Hussman have destroyed vast quantities of investors’ wealth, and Ron Paul’s portfolio mis-speaks for itself.

In short, even if the Fed is a ‘scam,’ the way to bet has been as if it isn’t. It has been an integral part of the financial system of the country that, for all its flaws, created more wealth in the 20th century than at any other time and place in history, and continues to do so in the 21st.

#245 SWL1976 on 12.03.15 at 7:26 pm

#240 Ralph Cramdown – I see you completely dodged my original question which to me implies that you cannot and simply will not answer it.

It’s ok. I get that a lot

At least you didn’t resort to name calling

I agree with your bet, but am also well aware that this bet has zero moral compass and that is why I feel like we as a society have lost our way

If this comment is a duplicate simply ignore or delete. Airport internet is being difficult

#246 Ralph Cramdown on 12.03.15 at 7:37 pm

#224 bdy sktrn — “bingo – shitty ‘scientists’ came running to this new ‘field’ of science since they were, like mark, mostly unemployed at making real things. there’s your ‘consensus’ . ask 10 physics/eng phd’s who are not on the climate payroll and see what real science says. you’d be surprised.”

This is the kind of fuzzy-headed thinking I’m talking about. Climatology and meteorology aren’t new fields, and they have applications in military strategy, civil aviation and agriculture, so a lot of countries have been spending a lot of money in these fields for decades, and putting up a plethora of remote sensing satellites. As far as I know, there’s no central payroll.

But hey, if you don’t like your proctologist’s opinion, ask your podiatrist for a second opinion. This really only makes sense if you’ve got somebody’s foot up your ass.

#247 PeterfromCalgary on 12.03.15 at 8:40 pm

No edit button. I meant to say $42000 not $420000.

#248 Blair witch on 12.04.15 at 1:24 am

Vancouver RE prices are ridiculous …. If you want to purchase over a million dollars for a cubicle.. Go ahead… RE prices will eventually be a buyers dream if you have cash. CHMC is getting tougher on down deposits. Not too many people are cash ready, too much debt. Now, whose fault is that! A home is to live in NOT an investment!

We will see what will happen this Spring whether to buy a home close to home or up North.

Anyhow, really just about everyone is a millionaire in Vancouver if they sell their home. It just inflates the prices in BC …. Very difficult to buy for every one else …..

The prices of homes have to come down soon!!!

#249 Buystander on 12.04.15 at 10:19 am

Dec. 16 is a go!

http://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2015/dec/04/stock-markets-us-jobs-report-non-farm-live-updates#img-1

#250 Doug in London on 12.04.15 at 10:49 am

@young & foolish, post #217:
As I said above in post #185, there are lots of good deals out there right now, and that’s where boomers should put their money. As I’ve said many, many, many, many times before, investors should act like a governor, that gives the engine for fuel/air mixture when the speed drops. It’s so ridiculously simple that even an idiot like me who failed a college financial course can understand it.