Pay attention

1ZOMBIES

For the past three years Sam’s worked for one of the biggest well-servicing companies in northern BC and Alberta. A good gig. Until now, of course.

“When I started we had a base in 30 towns from Fort Nelson to Medicine Hat with approximately 1,000 guys working in the field. As I write this today we have a base in Red Deer and one in Fort Nelson and we’re down to 80 guys in the field.”

By the way, did you read about a major oil patch support company laying off 90% of its employees? Of course not. This is the new reality. Economic mutilation, one little lick at a time.

“Fort Nelson is a ghost town….people are turning in their keys,” says Sam. “Old timers up here say it’s the worst they’ve ever seen…worse than the 80’s. The news hasn’t given this any justice. People are losing their shirts and it’s not just the rig workers. It’s the local restaurants that are boarded up…the Boston pizza is laying off, companies are pulling out. People don’t realize but this will trickle down south of here too – it’s just a matter of time. The big companies aren’t investing in the patch because of all the uncertainty and it shows. I’m lucky, I don’t live up here I commute from the lower mainland. I couldn’t imagine if I moved up here for work like so many people have. When I read some of the comments on your blog I have to laugh. People who think this oil shock will never reach them…it’s coming.”

Oil creep’s something the feds are terrified of, even if you aren’t. Days ago the CEO of Canada Mortgage and Housing gave a private presentation to finance guys in New York and warned that if oil drops to $35 a barrel (it’s now $41) and stays there for five years (oil started crashing two years ago) that houses in Canada could lose 26% of their value. Just for context, the US middle class was decimated when real estate prices declined 32%.

Oil at thirty-five bucks is not a stretch, seeing prices have declined 40% in a year, supplies are at record levels, the US is about to sell off a big hunk of its strategic crude reserves, and Iran’s set to tell OPEC this week it will be pumping its bootie off, now that it’s got a nuke deal with the States. One thing we know for sure – those Calgary oil execs who a year ago said recovery to $80 was a done deal are busy trying to sell their Cowtown McMansions. There’s so much office space for lease there a local commercial realtor calls it “a bloodbath.”

But this is not about Alberta. It’s fairly hooped, especially with a government viewed as anti-oil, about to slap a carbon tax on everything. These will not be easy years for what was once the promised land where kid technicians made two hundred grand and spent half that on a truck, or $700,000 on a crap house in Fort Mac.

Instead let’s focus on the wider consequences. There have been three engines of economic growth in Canada since the financial crisis plunged the world into quasi-deflation. Oil. Houses. Debt. Now the first one has turned into an economic negative, resulting in serious job loss and a drop in national income. That leaves real estate and the money borrowed to support it (the banks).

Without a doubt, we’ve become more dependent on housing every month that oil’s tanked. One in five jobs created this year came from real estate, and 90% of all jobs created since the spring. But at the same time, the housing market has narrowed. Most markets are seeing sales slow, stagnate or decline, many with zero or negative price growth. It’s only in YVR or the GTA that the boom carries on – although in 416 average detached prices have dropped below peak levels.

At the same time, the meme is changing. Stories about a real estate correction are far more prevalent than a few months ago, which makes this pathetic blog seem less weird all the time. Last week a major bank started warning people of imminent mortgage rate increases, for example.

So, it’s reasonable to conclude we are past peak house.

What about the debt thing? The Bank of Canada dropped rates twice this year specifically to draw forward demand – a term the pointy heads use to describe how cheap money lures people into borrowing and buying stuff they wouldn’t have bought otherwise (or might purchase later). It worked. Household debt’s at a new record high. Mortgage debt bloated another $75 billion this year. We are pickled in it. This is now a debt culture.

So what happens when the Fed begins to normalize rates on December 16th, as seems likely? Well, we follow. Since 1989 there’s been a 0.91 correlation coefficient between US and Canadian five-year government bonds. That means the odds of our bond yields jumping along with theirs is 91%. The bond market is where fixed mortgage rates (that 86% of people have) are set.

As TD economist Brian DePratto told Bloomberg yesterday: “As they start to tighten, the direction is clear: you are going to see that pass through to the Canadian five-year.”

Oil’s in a funk. Real estate’s wobbly. Debt swells.

At least be glad you don’t live in Fort Nelson. No Boston Pizza? Seriously?

204 comments ↓

#1 Loonie Watcher on 12.01.15 at 6:49 pm

Sweet Lausanne!

Canadian dollar below 0.75 again. In fact, it’s at .7486 currently. I expect it to drop below 0.73 by Christmas, and below 0.67 by the end of the first quarter.

You reap what you sow, Canada!

#2 vanreal on 12.01.15 at 6:54 pm

I still don’t see a major crash in house prices in Vancouver. Calgary yes, Toronto maybe, but not Vancouver.

A ‘major crash’ is not needed to cause disruption when prices are at nosebleed levels. — Garth

#3 common sense on 12.01.15 at 7:01 pm

God forbid the Boston Pizza laying off…

Never had such a horrible over priced pizza in the one and only time I was forced into the joint as everything else was packed and time was of the essence.

#4 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 12.01.15 at 7:02 pm

“Oil. Houses. Debt.”

Sounds like the States, but in a different order – Houses. Oil. Debt.

The total US debt rose by $674 Billion in November. We are all pickled in debt!

#5 S.Bby on 12.01.15 at 7:03 pm

Folks in Vancouver just cannot believe YVR house prices could drop even a bit. It’s just unfathomable to them. Real Estate is like a religion out here; or more like a Kool-aid cult actually.

#6 Only-inflation-to-reduce-debt-burden on 12.01.15 at 7:04 pm

World governments are in debt to their eye-balls. World citizens are in debt to their eye-balls. World economies are in debt to their ying-yangs. How to fix this, either grow economies or INFLATE AWAY THE DEBT…. NO INTEREST RATE HIKE THEN………

INFLATION because businesses didn’t do what they were expected to do with their tax windfall. Year after year, decade after decade of lowering corporate tax has allowed these corporations to stock-pile gazillions of dollars without re-investment into their respective areas. Cash is king as everybody knows today to stay as liquid as possible. How to fix this,, INFLATION of course,, so that these cash reserves of non-moving money begin to loose value (as inflation lessens the purchasing power of dollars). As inflation is allowed to settle in and fester a bit these holders of cash will begin to panic and so get those dollars moving again… INFLATION will NOT appear as the US raises interest rates but rather as they allow things to get a little sloppy, by keeping the interest rate where it is or by lowering it still.

NO INTEREST RATE HIKE JUST YET BUT RATHER A HIGHER INFLATION TARGET,, The sloppy management of monies are required for a period and so governments and world banks will eventually come to this the longer this period of stagflation persists…..

#7 Doug t on 12.01.15 at 7:06 pm

When many Canadians have less than $1000 in savings even incremental mortgage rate increases are gonna make them have seizures – this will not end well

#8 Bram on 12.01.15 at 7:07 pm

A -32% is probably a healthy thing, as it is long due.
Better a -32% now than a -64% two years later.

House prices will have to stay in line with inflation, and if it does not do this for a prolonged period, it will correct violently.

In Amsterdam, there is 400 year (!) sales-data for the canal houses. They call it the ‘Herengracht Index.’
So the exact same houses, that are being sold and bought over and over. (Brick: it lasts forever as opposed to our crappy chip-wood houses.)

Guess what? Over a 400 yr period, house pricing exactly matches inflation rate, with many booms/busts in between of course.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herengracht_index

#9 Canadian in Portland on 12.01.15 at 7:07 pm

I lived in Fort Nelson for a year. Fort Nelson is fort he’ll son. It rather eat goat hair than go back. It’s like jack Nicholson in the shining when the snow falls…

#10 mitzerboy aka queencity kid on 12.01.15 at 7:07 pm

somethins goin on ….

the timmies I drive by everyday at 6:30 am used to be
the drive through was 15 long both lanes ever since it was built a few years ago….
now I can drive right up and order ..no line up at all
not a truck but mine to be seen.

#11 Brydle604 on 12.01.15 at 7:10 pm

Something to Think About
December 2015

Disruptive digital Technologies

The Worlds largest Taxi Company owns NO Taxis Uber
Worlds largest Accommodation Company owns NO Real estate AirBnB
Worlds largest Phone Company owns NO Telco infrastructure Skype & WeChat
Worlds most valuable Retailer Owns No inventory Alibaba
Worlds fastest growing bank has No actual MONEY Society One
Worlds most popular Media Company owns No Content Facebook
Worlds largest Movie House owns NO cinemas’ Netflix
Start Up funding on the internet has NO money Crowd Funding Kickstarter, Indiegogo
Stock purchasing with low fees in Canada Virtual Brokers, Questrade
Ones to Watch
Tesla home battery backup and Solar panels
Driverless Cars

Technology is the FUTURE!

#12 Interstellar Old Yeller on 12.01.15 at 7:10 pm

Stories about a real estate correction are far more prevalent than a few months ago, which makes this pathetic blog seem less weird all the time.

This is how you know it’s really time to worry!

#13 zee on 12.01.15 at 7:13 pm

10-15% price correction in GTA and Vancouver over a few years, is nothing to be too worried about it.
Rates will not go too far, did you see the data that came out here and America.
For major price correction, you need mortgage rates of closer to 5% and this will not happen.

#14 MSM-Free Zone on 12.01.15 at 7:13 pm

The latest U-Haul barometer (15-foot truck):

Calgary to Vancouver: $799
Vancouver to Calgary: $548

#15 Frank on 12.01.15 at 7:13 pm

I’ve heard the term “peak house” so much in the last 5 years I will now believe it when I see it.

#16 Prairieboy43 on 12.01.15 at 7:14 pm

Was in Ft. Nelson 2010. Town was rocking. BP was standup only. Drilled a few holes MaxHamish Lake on the Ft. Liard Rd. Fort liard nice little community in winter with 1 or 2 stores. It is a “Dry” town. Don’t go there Smoking Man unless you want Mukluks. Great fishing area.
Met some Yankees at old hotel. Had coffee with a couple. Heading to Alaska to go fishing. No work for these boys
down south.
Can see this same scene part II, coming soon to Canadians.
PB43

#17 Dont Believe The Hype on 12.01.15 at 7:14 pm

If only the price at the pump reflected the new “reality of oil”

#18 Alberta Ed on 12.01.15 at 7:15 pm

The guys hammering up the last four-unit townhouse on our street in Cochrane say things are slow, so they’re happy to work even on weekends. When they’re done, there will be 34 brand new townhouses for sale in one block, not counting the four that have been for sale over the summer, now de-listed. Not to mention, ATCO just laid off 400 in its Structures division due to the lack of demand for oil patch work camps.

#19 Kevin on 12.01.15 at 7:16 pm

Considering that debt and the housing market is driving Canada’s economy, how would interest rate rises and a correction in housing *not* lead to a more full blown crash in both housing and the economy? Similar to what was seen in the USA around 2008?

Right now we’re on a virtuous cycle that is fuelled by debt. More housing -> more jobs -> more debt -> more housing -> etc. But if less debt -> less housing -> less jobs > etc., how does that not turn into a more full fledged crash?

#20 Patrick on 12.01.15 at 7:16 pm

“Are millennials really that bad off? Not the Canadian ones — at least when you compare them to their U.S. counterparts. A report out Tuesday from TD Economics finds more than half of Canadian millennials — those aged 25-34 — own homes.”

Yikes. This will get ugly. Apparently, we’re better off than US millennials because 50% of us own homes.

Most of my friends hang on to the belief that if prices do correct that they will eventually recover. Like 1989-present. I don’t think that’s possible just because of low interest rates. But what’s the actual answer to that? If prices go will we see a recovery in our lifetimes?

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/family-finance/millennial-money/canadian-millennials-better-off-than-their-american-counterparts

#21 Axehead on 12.01.15 at 7:16 pm

Maybe it’s time to trade the steel balls in for generators.

#22 common sense on 12.01.15 at 7:18 pm

Having a big laugh at the Ontario PC party wanting a big round of applause for persuading Wynne to drop the Land Transfer tax…

She likely sent them roses thanking them for not having to actually go ahead and pass the tax, saving face and what’s left of the Ontario housing market.

What bullshit.

#23 Panhead on 12.01.15 at 7:20 pm

I still rember passing through Fort Nelson in 1980. We were headed up to the Yukon to do a little fishing. It was May and pouring rain. All the locals it seemed were at a fair (games of chance and rides) as it was only in town for a few days. They were walking around up to their ankles in the muddy field. We kept on driving …

#24 Brydle604 on 12.01.15 at 7:24 pm

Re Fort Nelson B.C.
In the eighties my Company was involved in the Financing of the Inn of the North Hotel in Fort Nelson and we also built an apartment building there.
Then came P1 with his NEP.
Fort Nelson almost became a ghost town and the Hotel became City Hall.
Here we go again with P2 in charge who seems intent on raising taxes, big Government, without any thought on creating jobs.
We are in BIG trouble!

#25 nonplused on 12.01.15 at 7:24 pm

Don’t worry Nutley’s “tax on everything” will fix the economy, give everyone a green job, and insure all little girls get a pony for Christmas every year. They’re putting adds on the radio that say so.

What I love about this tax is how regressive it is. The poor and middle class spend a much higher percentage of their income on staples like food and energy than the rich do, and these are the things that will most be affected by the so called carbon tax (which is really just a tax on everything).

I mean, who is spending all their money putting their kids in hockey? The middle class. Well, the cost of making all that ice just went way up, and so did the cost of driving to Hanna for a game. Since farmers use a ton of Diesel, a burger at the rink just went up too.

This was absolutely the craziest thing to do, and the craziest time to do it, and for the craziest reasons. The tax on everything isn’t going to do anything to help the environment except maybe kill a bunch of trees as wood heating becomes more popular.

The only thing I like about the tax on everything is that it’s going to hit the NDP support base proportionally harder than the more affluent conservative base. Suckers! You should have seen that coming.

#26 Prometheus_Returns_XV on 12.01.15 at 7:25 pm

Major some declines in commodity provinces, but Vancouver? More of a flat-line for a few years…maybe. Yuan holders are reaping major discounts on CDN real estate. YVR will hold up fine, as we are already seeing massive, real discounts on the currency conversion.

If rates do go up, we will almost certainly see a return to QE. It’s equally likely rates won’t go up, as last year’s removal of QE was de facto tightening.

Either way, the fundamentals are terrible. Multi-year lows across the board in the US, from manufacturing, commodity prices, shipping, etc. Only growth areas are low-interest rate sensitive – i.e. car sales on 72 month terms.

#27 Shawn on 12.01.15 at 7:25 pm

Do you think the Canadian banks are in trouble? Will they decline in the event of a housing correction or real estate bear market?

#28 Caught In The Grip on 12.01.15 at 7:28 pm

Here’s what is being shorted on the TSX:

http://www.tmxmoney.com/en/research/short_positions.html

TD is being shorted more than any other Canadian bank.

#29 Caught In The Grip on 12.01.15 at 7:29 pm

How did the Canadian banks perform during the last 2 major Canadian housing corrections (early 1980s, early 1990s)?

#30 JSS on 12.01.15 at 7:31 pm

If things are so shitty out there, then why did BMO increase their dividend?

Can’t be all that doom-and-gloom if banks are still making money?

#31 Brydle604 on 12.01.15 at 7:36 pm

#23 Correction T1 and T2 sorry.

#32 Dominoes Lining Up on 12.01.15 at 7:40 pm

You can see this hitting far from Alberta, quite soon.

Toronto’s city manager warns that capital projects may need to be outright cancelled:

“The only reason Toronto’s finances have not “crashed and burned,” Wallace said, is the land transfer tax expected to extract more than $500 million this year from the red-hot real estate market. A cooling market could hit city coffers hard.

“The City of Toronto has been a free rider on a real estate boom,” said Wallace, a former Ontario deputy finance minister who became city manager last spring”

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2015/12/01/toronto-city-manager-warns-of-gap-in-budget.html

Imagine multiplying this effect across Canada – talk about some falling dominoes…..

But at least T-Dot has a leg up on Fort Nelson – cause it’s different there.

http://www.blogto.com/eat_drink/2015/11/a_boston_pizza_might_replace_the_brunswick_house/

#33 TurnerNation on 12.01.15 at 7:47 pm

Hey Smoking man my top US rebound pick is WYNN (not Wynne). A casino stock, too.

#34 james on 12.01.15 at 7:51 pm

“The big companies aren’t investing in the patch because of all the uncertainty and it shows.”

I don’t buy this.

There is always uncertainty.

What is scaring them away is that the ‘patch’ is not economically viable.

New technology and an exponential increase in oil and gas development in the USA have basically done Canada in. There are many many more fields waiting to be developed, leaving aside rather large and successful ones like Bakken.

Even the thickest oil and gas exec (or worse, the fools that governed Alberta) can see that Alberta’s oil industry is not competitive pricewise. Maybe someday, but not right now.

#35 Hmmm on 12.01.15 at 7:56 pm

Sounds like Baker Hughes, perfect storm of uncertainty for them. $40 oil, NDP & Liberal govt at the provincial and federal level, looming merger with halliburton

I worked with them and made it past the first 3 rounds of layoffs in Calgary. August of last year we had ~50 engineers in my department after last week they are down to 9

#36 saskatoon on 12.01.15 at 8:00 pm

#215 noel

hint: you aren’t going back far enough.

#37 Nanaimo on 12.01.15 at 8:06 pm

Converted half my portfolio to USD. Looks like the US are going to raise rates in Dec. The big question, what will the BOC do in January at their meeting. They have two bullets left and that is to lower rates. Does the U.S. fed raise rates again in January? The next fed meeting after January is in April, I think? So if the BOC is thinking about lowering rates, will it be in January? What is riskier, buying USD at 1.3350 or getting caught with CDN at 1.4500 or lower. Keep writing Garth, you are one of the few guys that is telling the truth.

#38 Victoria Real Estate Update on 12.01.15 at 8:15 pm

I like how realtors rush to post their assurances that prices in Van won’t be affected by rising rates.

They, of course, don’t mention that Vancouver’s housing market is, perhaps, the bubbliest in the world or important facts about the history of Vancouver’s housing market, such as:

In 2008-09, house prices in Vancouver fell at a rate of 14.2% per year (for 10 months) until interest rates were suddenly slashed from near-normal to emergency levels.

. . . . . Vancouver House Prices. . . . . .
. Percent Below July 2008 Price Level . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .0%. . .*. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 1%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 2%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 3%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 4%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 6%. . . . . . . . . . . *. . . . . . . . . . . .
– 7%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 8%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 9%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-10%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-11%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-12%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . * . . .
—————————————————————-
. . . . . .July. . . . December. . . . May. . .
. . . . . 2008. . . . . 2008 . . . . . 2009. . .

(source: Teranet’s index)

In 2009, Vancouver’s (crashing?) housing market was rescued by emergency rates.

At that time, similar major price corrections were underway in Victoria, Edmonton and Calgary. These falling markets were also rescued by emergency rates.

Housing markets in Vancouver, Victoria, Calgary and Edmonton crashed in the 1980s.

#39 Mark on 12.01.15 at 8:17 pm

“Do you think the Canadian banks are in trouble? Will they decline in the event of a housing correction or real estate bear market?”

I don’t believe Canadian banks are in trouble at all, *if* you assume that the CMHC is going to make good, in full, on all of their legal obligations without question as RE prices continue to fall.

The problem that arises is just how willing will the government be to provide the requisite bailout of the CMHC when it inevitably burns through its paltry capital cushion (~$20B to back $900B of contingent guarantees!)? The political theatre concerning the CMHC is quite likely to cause an elevation in the bank’s cost of capital (debt + equity).

Even if the government unconditionally and unquestionably meets its obligations under the CMHC guarantees and bails the CMHC out, there is still the possibility of the government enacting a tax on the banking sector to pay for the CMHC bailouts. Banking sector surtaxes are not a new idea in Canada and have been enacted under prior governments. Likewise, this has the possibility of impairing the value of equity in Canada’s major banks.

Hence, investors are well advised to take Garth’s advice and be diversified. The plethora of investments which can be picked up for firesale prices in Canada’s economy (and overseas) at the moment is enormous. Sure, commodity prices and emerging markets look like trash right now, but the down-cycle does not last forever!

#40 Darryl on 12.01.15 at 8:18 pm

Funny how Big Oil was not the only ones with a “Single Asset” Strategy this whole time…. why have they not diversified into Green Renewable Energy? If they had been ready, they could be moving their work force into building windmills and solar panel fields. Sure beats a dug up fracked and destroyed landscape.

We are making some greedy mistakes here in Canada.

#41 piccaso on 12.01.15 at 8:21 pm

Buying now, you’re buying the last innings of the game. Just go with your gut sometimes. Too many alarm bells lately to not take a pause, especially when coming from the horses mouth (CHMC).

#42 VanMan on 12.01.15 at 8:22 pm

In the Lower Mainland, any discussion should distinguish if the reference is between the condo market, the single family home market (including multi-generational) or the luxury home market. There are 3 very distinct segments here – one is teetering from over supply and opportunity for endless growth (up). One is awash with those that have access to cheap credit and zero financial acumen and the other is a safety deposit box for a portion of the world’s wealthy.

Any talk of the real estate market as a whole is misleading and confusing.

There is no question in my mind the condo market will get ugly soon… developers, politicians, employers, everybody is trying to convince each-other that living in 350 square feet is the new norm and perfect for raising a family. Well, I tried it and guess what….it sucks!

Micro-units are a trend that won’t last.

#43 TRT on 12.01.15 at 8:24 pm

Garth:

Bank of Canada will not follow the FED.

Because the Corps have their people running the arms lengths institutions now.

Housing for banks is too big to fail. And Banks are the Corps are the institutions are the government.

#44 Smoking Man on 12.01.15 at 8:26 pm

#33 TurnerNation on 12.01.15 at 7:47 pm
Hey Smoking man my top US rebound pick is WYNN (not Wynne). A casino stock, too.
…..

I have thing for ceasers, seeing they fly us to any casino, any time, free food hotel and drinks.

Hench they let a smoking man in the house, free booze, no wonder their in bankruptcy court..

Was downtown today, few sales calls…nailed em both.

American businesses really have there ducks in order. I use to think I was a bad ass tin man..just a wee grasshopper in comparison.

These guys are slick..it’s part of there DNA I’m thinking.

In learned a lot today…

And at last check made a lot..go UDDCAD.

#45 Red Deer Rob on 12.01.15 at 8:27 pm

The financial impact of the low oil price is now very evident and common among people here in AB. If you’re head is still in the sand and think everything is rosey you’re either rich or a civil servant.

I am happy I am working but come spring breakup I think I’ll have a lot of free time. Hang in there Albertans! Live frugally and enjoy the small things this Christmas.

#46 TurnerNation on 12.01.15 at 8:27 pm

Also in Alberta look for more revenue generation.

(Torontonians will face a prop tax hike due to the police’s 1 billion dollar budget. Gold plated. Party faithful.)

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/12/01/man-fined-for-drive-thru-texting-at-tim-hortons.html

“An Alberta man has been hit with a ticket for almost $300 after police spotted him texting in a Tim Hortons drive-thru.
“It’s the first time I’ve ever heard of that in a drive-thru lineup,” Chris Rechner of the Alberta Motor Association told The Star.
His comments came after A.J. Daoust was ticketed for $287 for distracted driving while waiting for his coffee in at Beaumont, Alta., Tim Hortons last week.”

#47 Sean on 12.01.15 at 8:28 pm

“Converted half my portfolio to USD.”

You’re a year late.

#48 Victoria on 12.01.15 at 8:28 pm

I just heard a young couple in Nanaimo (both around 22) are going to buy a house and then flip it.

They may go into the house flipping business.

#49 Smoking Man on 12.01.15 at 8:29 pm

#40 Darryl on 12.01.15 at 8:18 pm
Funny how Big Oil was not the only ones with a “Single Asset” Strategy this whole time…. why have they not diversified into Green Renewable Energy? If they had been ready, they could be moving their work force into building windmills and solar panel fields. Sure beats a dug up fracked and destroyed landscape.

We are making some greedy mistakes here in Canada.
……

Tree hugger, you have so much to learn…

#50 Freedom First on 12.01.15 at 8:32 pm

I’m glad that Dave gave us that information. As everybody knows I have been giving Alberta updates since before the layoffs and economic $hit$torm happening in Alberta made it to the msm. Of course, some Dickheads here called me a liar because if it was really happening they would have heard it by now.

My latest Alberta update is ready.

Through my work, I talk with people Province wide in Alberta. Dave is right, and I will give you some more information on how Albertan’s are responding to TSHHTF in their lives.

People with houses/condos who have lost their jobs, or are even scared to lose their jobs from all the layoffs they are seeing around them, are renting out their extra bedrooms, or, doubling up their kids to 1 bedroom so they can rent one, or even 2 bedrooms out. The vacancy rates are so high, rents are dropping all over, and people renting out a bedroom, can only get about $500/month. Also, people are sharing, that even though they have owned their place for up to twenty years, they have no equity, as they have re-mortgaged 2 or 3 times. Some of these ones have lost their jobs, and are getting close to capitulation, especially because their mortgage is coming up for renewal in the next year or two, and as of the present, they know they will not qualify for a re-mortgage.

Another one. People have been leaving to go live with relatives, in or out of the Province, and some of them needed their relatives help to even make the move.

I am saddened to see this happening, and long time older Albertans are telling me this is looking like the crash in the 80’s. Maybe worse. Albertan’s have been stunned and dazed.

Toronto and Vancouver, wake up.

#51 Lea on 12.01.15 at 8:36 pm

#5 S.Bby

Yes, it is cult-like. Just like it was in Los Angeles in 2006. It is so crazy that it must mean the end is nigh.

#52 the Jaguar on 12.01.15 at 8:38 pm

If you’re going to go Biblical on us Garth and count off the horses of the apocalypse you forgot the fourth one behind Oil, Houses & Debt…..Retail. You can count off the closures in the past two years of some major players in retail. That Internet sure is a job killer.

#53 The Great Gazoo (AKA Rainmaker) on 12.01.15 at 8:42 pm

“Oil at thirty-five bucks is not a stretch, seeing prices have declined 40% in a year, supplies are at record levels, the US is about to sell off a big hunk of its strategic crude reserves, and Iran’s set to tell OPEC this week it will be pumping its bootie off, now that it’s got a nuke deal with the States.” – Garth

First, I really value this blog – great insight and guidance on how to manage one’s finances. A place of financial sanity I say. That said, I will share some links with respect to the oil markets that provide a bit of counter balance to some of your comments which I think are overly negative.

First, the US is not “about” to sell off a big chunk of its strategic crude reserves. Based on the link below (there are many others if you don’t believe that one), it will not begin until 2018 – that’s 3 years from now, so clearly not going to have any meaningful impact on prices in the near term.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/us-to-sell-oil-from-strategic-petroleum-reserve/articleshow/49562567.cms

US to sell oil from Strategic Petroleum Reserve
By Bloomberg | 28 Oct, 2015, 10.04AM IST
Post a Comment

The US plans to sell millions of barrels of crude oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve from 2018 until 2025 under a budget deal reached on Monday night by the White House and top lawmakers from both parties.

Second, here is a link to a presentation by David Purcell with Tudor,Pickering, Holt. It’s an excellent presentation that provides solid evidence to support their expectation that the oil markets are not as bad as some suggest and will improve in 2016. I think their forecast for the price of oil in 2016 may be optimistic. No matter, the presentation provides sound rationale to justify their position. It’s a bit long at 10 minutes, but if you really want to better understand what is happening in the oil markets and listen to some real research and not simplified sound bites from the media, this presentation is well worth your time.

https://vimeo.com/145236378

Finally, as far as Iran goes, there is a real risk of a delay in sanctions being lifted this year. And even once sanctions are lifted, it’s not a simple matter of turning a few valves and oil is going to come gushing out – it will take some time to ramp up production over many months.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/30/us-iran-nuclear-france-idUSKBN0TJ1CT20151130

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/11/26/iran-nuclear-iaea-idUKV9N11J00Z20151126

U.N. report on Iran’s nuclear past won’t be “black and white” -IAEA

Nov 26 A long-awaited U.N. report on whether Iran has in the past carried out work related to nuclear weapons will not reach a definitive conclusion on the subject, the chief of the U.N. nuclear watchdog said on Thursday.

“The report will not be black and white,” Yukiya Amano, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told reporters. (Reporting By Francois Murphy and Shadia Nasralla)

#54 VanDug on 12.01.15 at 8:42 pm

I am curious what happens in China. If the world markets are responding to the US buck, what happens internally to China? They are providing most of our manufactured goods now and I can’t figure out whether rate shock will hit them and what the effect would be. If it’s negative, the trickle back would be interesting feedback.

#55 Washed Up Lawyer on 12.01.15 at 8:46 pm

Powerful stuff from Sam. I have only been through Fort Nelson once in 1975 on my way to the Yukon.

My only recollection is that is where I saw the one and only wolf that I have ever seen.

Sam says that wolf is headed south, east and west. I think he is right.

#56 Bytor the Snow Dog on 12.01.15 at 8:53 pm

#46 – If I’m Mr. Daoust I’m fighting that ticket. It won’t hold up as they can’t give tickets on private property.

#57 Leo Trollstoy on 12.01.15 at 8:57 pm

It’s only in YVR or the GTA that the boom carries on…

No kidding. It’s nuts in these 2 cities. Completely unsustainable.

#58 DEBT OF A LIFETIME on 12.01.15 at 9:01 pm

FOR MOST PEOPLE IN VANCOUVER A 25-30% WOULD STILL MAKE THE HOUSING OUT OF REACH. HOMES ARE STARTING AROUND $1 MILLION. A DROP OF 25-30% WOULD STILL TRANSLATE TO A $750K HOME. HELLO, THIS IS STILL OUT OF REACH FOR MOST PEOPLE.

50% DROP WOULD STILL MAKE HOMES OUT OF REACH. $500K HOME????

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/canadas-ever-growing-housing-bubble-as-albertas-market-tumbles-the-rest-of-the-country-wonders-whos-next

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2014/09/24/canada-housing-bubble-hilliard-macbeth_n_5878784.html

#59 Ralph Cramdown on 12.01.15 at 9:02 pm

#28 Caught In The Grip — “TD is being shorted more than any other Canadian bank.”

…by Canadians. Check NYSE short interest to see what Americans are up to:

http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3062-shtnyse_0_9-listing.html?mod=topnav_2_3062

#60 Kreditanstalt on 12.01.15 at 9:04 pm

Waiting for that unemployment rate to start rising…

Three protected and overpaid groups have done VERY well for themselves for years, despite the death of the Main Street economy: engineers/technicians/managers, government employees and resource industry grunts.

They NEED to have to compete for their jobs.

#61 Keith in Calgary on 12.01.15 at 9:04 pm

I just spent the last two weeks in Grande Prairie. Thank gawd for Jack Daniel’s.

Every day I heard a story first hand from someone who needed out of his $50K truck loan, was going to go BK, was looking to lower his payments by refinancing as he was initially funded by a subprime lender @ 17% or more (TD or Scotia Dealer Advantage)…….couldn’t make his mortgage payments anymore because he took a $10 an hour pay cut……..just got laid off and was drinking his severance pay and keeping enough for an airline ticket home…..etc….seems like we pissed it all away again.

#62 Keith in Calgary on 12.01.15 at 9:08 pm

Forgot to add my co-worker found a new place to rent this weekend. Her old amateur landlord raised her rent to $1000 from $800 so she gave him notice. We have a “reported” 5% vacancy rate in Calgary right now……and it’s not getting any better. She found a place twice the size with more than what they wanted for $1,500 a month…….and in her words…….the private landlords she met were desperate.

#63 Leo Trollstoy on 12.01.15 at 9:11 pm

Hard to imagine the fall in oil impacting YVR and Toronto’s ever increasing house prices but never say never.

#64 Nagraj on 12.01.15 at 9:14 pm

re the CMHC CEO’s scenario with $35 oil and a 26% fall in house prices: he also projected a 12% unemployment rate in that 5yr scenario

(the PBO is projecting $59 oil for the 5 yrs)

first thought: a sustained ca 10% unemployment rate is politically destabilizing in any country

Chinese curse: “May you live in interesting times.”

#65 Linda on 12.01.15 at 9:17 pm

Moan. Wail. The world will end…. Good golly, Miss Molly. Where have i heard this gloomy outlook before? Oh yes, that was the same cry of woe ‘Never seen it this bad’ I have heard at least 3 times now.

Here is the reality of what happens when you live on credit. Come the day the markets/commodities/apocalypse occurs, those who have no equity but only debt sob their way out the door. Those who lived within their means are just fine, thanks. And despite the wails of the suddenly bankrupt, those who lived within their means are not all of them privileged, upper class entitled who don’t deserve their good fortune. In fact, most of the ones who are solvent are usually the lower paid individuals. True fact observed when participating in a coffee fund at work. Come the day to pay up, the highest paid workers – engineers & managers – usually did not have the cash to hand to pay the weekly tab. However, all the clerical/lower paid staff usually had the cash ready. So the best paid usually ran a tab (& paid maybe once a month) but the lowest paid were almost always paid in full or even paid a week ahead. Guess who had the greatest difficulty when the economy went into a tail spin? Hint – not the ones who lived within their means…..

#66 Mark on 12.01.15 at 9:18 pm

“50% DROP WOULD STILL MAKE HOMES OUT OF REACH. $500K HOME????”

Living in or near the core of any major world city in a SFH has historically been inaccessible to most. However, it does seem likely that the economy will present the opportunity, for people smart enough to avoid the housing bubble and invest in inversely correlated assets, to eventually acquire some of that prime real estate at nice discounts.

Getting on the right trend at an inflection point can create a tremendous amount of value. The only problem is, people rarely time it correctly. That’s why methodic asset allocation and rebalancing to targets is a proven strategy for long-term wealth creation which avoids a lot of the guesswork and provides reasonably decent results. One asset strategies are excessively volatile for most and have a high potential of failure.

#67 Ret on 12.01.15 at 9:31 pm

The biggest threat to my Canadian way of life is my pick-up truck in the driveway?????

These Greenies are out of control. Their green energy solutions swirl around and around but invariably end up in some new tax to punish us for running a washing machine, a refrigerator or firing up a furnace to heat our home.

Other than new taxes, they have no solutions. Canadians are environmentalists but they thirst for real practical solutions, not new taxes or restrictive legislation.

Fix gridlock. Fix the building codes. Build a smarter, more efficient and productive country and always lead by example. It will be a challenge, but it is doable.

Think about it JT. How many gallons of jet fuel have you and your entourage burned up flying around to tell the world about green renewable energy and climate change?

City of Hamilton. Do I really need three, twenty ton trucks and 6 workers to show up at my house every seven days to pick up one garbage bag, two half filled blue boxes and 3-5 kg. of green box materials? What are they thinking? Would my world end if those collection times were 3x a month instead of 4x?

#68 Victor V on 12.01.15 at 9:36 pm

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2015/12/01/toronto-city-manager-warns-of-gap-in-budget.html

Toronto councillors face the political equivalent of an ice-bucket challenge — decide how to fund $23 billion in capital projects or carve them out of the budget.

City manager Peter Wallace offered the cold dose of reality Tuesday to Mayor John Tory’s executive committee, saying he will at some point offer council a menu of “revenue tools” — new taxes or fees — to consider.

The only reason Toronto’s finances have not “crashed and burned,” Wallace said, is the land transfer tax expected to extract more than $500 million this year from the red-hot real estate market. A cooling market could hit city coffers hard.

#69 Scotia raising variable rates on 12.01.15 at 9:37 pm

I’m a mortgage broker and just got the email today. Scotia raised the variable to prime minus 20 basis points as of tomorrow. That was P-65 about a month ago.

Banks are chopping the discount fast. Will soon be at prime. Cheap money days are ending fast.

#70 A Yank in BC on 12.01.15 at 9:37 pm

#17 Dont Believe The Hype

If only the price at the pump reflected the new “reality of oil”
——————————————————————
What the prices at the pump reflect instead is the new reality of the Canadian Dollar.

#71 Pay attention | Realties.ca on 12.01.15 at 9:44 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/12/01/pay-attention-4/ […]

#72 Nemesis on 12.01.15 at 9:53 pm

“Sam says that wolf is headed south, east and west. I think he is right.” – WUL

#SamTheLion…

https://youtu.be/mvgKGY5m71w

#TheDeathOfSamTheLion…

https://youtu.be/bvjLvggrYUo

#73 Big Dipper on 12.01.15 at 9:57 pm

#25 nonplused on 12.01.15 at 7:24 pm
“the cost of making all that ice just went way up, and so did the cost of driving to Hanna for a game. Since farmers use a ton of Diesel, a burger at the rink just went up too.” And,

Pay attention, December 1st, 2015

“But this is not about Alberta. It’s fairly hooped, especially with a government viewed as anti-oil, about to slap a carbon tax on everything.”

————————————————-

Baloney on both accounts. First, the price of Alberta diesel and gas is the lowest it’s been for years. Not going to change with a small carbon tax. Secondly, the Notley government is about the most industry friendly we’ve had in Alberta for decades.

The right-wing carbon tax knee-jerk reaction is ideological, nothing more. Of course, it will not reduce CO2 emissions substantially….duh. It’s an attempt to fight the perception that Alberta is an environmental laggard and, everything else being equal, oil and gas should be sourced elsewhere.

If Alberta is going to survive as a long term producer this is critical. Obviously a difficult concept for the far right to understand

Statements from the right wing Fraser Institute to the contrary should be ignored. The Fraser Institute never represented the viewpoints of Alberta Industry. Right wing noise, nothing more.

#74 Wussmode on 12.01.15 at 9:57 pm

Seems like everything is wobbling now; the BRIC countries are, Japan, China, Europe, Canada, and Australia. According to Garth, the US is chugging ahead independent of all the other nations. This just doesn’t seem to add up and I have major doubts that the US fed will raise interest rates this month; they certainly have lots of excuses to choose not from.

#75 paul on 12.01.15 at 9:59 pm

#62 Keith in Calgary on 12.01.15 at 9:08 pm

Forgot to add my co-worker found a new place to rent this weekend. Her old amateur landlord raised her rent to $1000 from $800 so she gave him notice. We have a “reported” 5% vacancy rate in Calgary right now……and it’s not getting any better. She found a place twice the size with more than what they wanted for $1,500 a month…….and in her words…….the private landlords she met were desperate
———————————————————-
Wait a second, She went from $800 to $1500 and got twice the size for twice the price?????????????????

#76 Smoking Man on 12.01.15 at 10:01 pm

#69 Scotia raising variable rates on 12.01.15 at 9:37 pm
I’m a mortgage broker and just got the email today. Scotia raised the variable to prime minus 20 basis points as of tomorrow. That was P-65 about a month ago.

Banks are chopping the discount fast. Will soon be at prime. Cheap money days are ending fast.
….

Thats funny, Canada is so fkd, not one conservative govt anywhere in Canada..just insane tree hugger hell bent on sending us to the stone age.

Its tax tax tax time..bend over doggies.

Regarding chepo money, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

Negative rates in Canada by the summer, and a 50 cent dollar..

Which makes our real estate not to expensive in real money.

#77 pwn3d on 12.01.15 at 10:05 pm

“So, it’s reasonable to conclude we are past peak house.”

It was reasonable to conclude that 4 years ago. Except it is incorrect. The GTA is still on fire with October’s 10.33% gain. Another positive spring is in the cards too.

Those waiting for a decline, let alone a crash, may have some luck in 2017.

Average detached house price in 416 is $20,000 less than it was eight months ago. Some fire. — Garth

#78 whitehorn on 12.01.15 at 10:06 pm

There has been lots of talk where to house all the destined 3000 Syrian refugees in Alberta. The Edmonton Journal in the comments section; the writer wrote he manages camps in Ft. Mac, and mentioned there are 2 camps (4 Star luxury) that are presently empty which normally accommodate 3000 people between the both of them. Also, he mentioned there are numerous vacant camps throughout BC and AB due to the downturn in oil. That is scary when the oil/resource downturn has empty camps where normally would be occupied by workers contributing to the economy. Yes, I agree with Garth the trickle affect where all these people return home throughout every corner in Canada with loss of jobs. That does not include all the manufacturing, service companies, parts distributors and any logistical support that cater to the oil industry throughout the country. This definitely will have consequences in every part of Canada, especially real estate as Garth mentioned.

#79 Mark on 12.01.15 at 10:10 pm

“I’m a mortgage broker and just got the email today. Scotia raised the variable to prime minus 20 basis points as of tomorrow. That was P-65 about a month ago.”

Cue the wailing from the Realtors and other RE pumpers who thought the cheap money would last forever.

Between the extra 25bp of spread the banks picked up by refusing to lower “Prime” the full 50bp that the BoC lowered, and these recent changes, an additional 70bp of spread flows directly to the bank’s net interest margin.

Happy times if you’re a bank shareholder, that’s for sure, and even happier times ahead. The BMO/BNS numbers today were nothing short of spectacular, and TD/RY/CM should be just as swell in the coming days.

Now that RE prices are undeniably well past their peak, and the CMHC takes care of defaults, I agree that they’ll likely continue to increase the spread as much as the market will tolerate.

#80 Gray Man on 12.01.15 at 10:13 pm

Fed going to raise rates , Homey dont think so!

http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/the-yuan-ascends-to-world-reserve-status-dollar-system-being-done-away-with_11302015

#81 Gray Man on 12.01.15 at 10:21 pm

Negative in The I.O.U. of America also.
If the Banks that own and control the Fed decide its in their best interest to raise or go negative , then thats what will happen.

The Fed reports to Congress, not member banks. Pure fiction. — Garth

#82 Smoking Man on 12.01.15 at 10:23 pm

You got to love the machine and is long plan..

This message is for educated boomers, not schooled millenials.

These kids have been so mind fkd, the paradigm of expectations sent to the basement..

They’re pissed royalty at what we exhaled a moment ago that feeds trees and crops.

All their energy focused on the second biggest scam of the centry.

Rather than ask govts why in the fifties a war raveged pow, a father that was not all there after the war, who’s wife stayed home to raise two kids, he had a house, cottage, cars. And he swept floors for a living..

What the fk is going on premier, prime minister?

I blame the teachers.

They should all be fired for screwing up this so bad..

Theyre to stupid to realize, they’re shot themselves in the head. Its a long slow flying bullet , but is coming right between there eyes.

Dr Smoking Man.

#83 A Box in the Sky on 12.01.15 at 10:25 pm

lets be real here:

A 10-20% drop in the 416 will hardly justify anyone who has sat on the sidelines here since 2009

A correction like that would lead to a pot full of bargains as underwater owners bailed. What an uninformed comment. — Garth

#84 NoName on 12.01.15 at 10:28 pm

“Wait a second, She went from $800 to $1500 and got twice the size for twice the price”
————
Math problems?
Call 1-800-
[(10x)(13i)^2]-[sin(xy)/ 2.362x]

#85 dosouth on 12.01.15 at 10:30 pm

Maybe this is rhetorical, but as consumer prices increase following bank fees and gas prices which remain high in most Canadian cities as oil tanks and banks reap profits $300 million plus in their quarterly reports (from fees alone) and local fuel merchants “fix” prices, food prices continue to increase due to the falling dollar, of which the export market is making hay on the back’s of Canadians and the low dollar…….and we are supposed to be happy about that?

Then how, if you can barely make ends meet now, are investor’s such as yourself able to encourage investment/savings when the only one’s making the money are the ones who are downsizing staff and up-sizing profits at a, some might call, gross margin of profit. This makes the TFWorker program pale in comparison to lost jobs and weak economy ahead of the US announcement or better yet, the credit card holiday season.

#86 M on 12.01.15 at 10:32 pm

oh yess… the banks :)
the big guess of which one (s) will go belly up.
Of course they’ll bail them aut..however..
“too big to bail”…anyone ??

..I know Gartho… “banks will not go bust””… Bay Street says so :)

…imagine those profits :) yummmm yummmm

No major Canadian bank will fail. Or even come close. — Garth

#87 Marius on 12.01.15 at 10:33 pm

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/11/29/corporate-tax-cuts-canada-economy_n_8676646.html?ncid=fcbklnkcahpmg00000001

#88 Marius on 12.01.15 at 10:34 pm

http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/corporate-canada-is-pumping-money-out-of-the-country-at-a-record-rate

#89 Smoking Man on 12.01.15 at 10:39 pm

Average detached house price in 416 is $20,000 less than it was eight months ago. Some fire. — Garth
.

Garth you know I love you bro, but you say this shit every December when You of all people know the market is yearly cyclical. Spring Is the high water mark, Dec low water mark.. I’m my Hood 60gs dif buy in dec sell in april.

However this is the last spring..with commies running the show, its over after the spring market.

But what a market it will be.

I look forward to all the toronto tree huggers who voted in these theives with two nannies get financialy massacured..

The response is a valid one to those who say “the market went up 10.3% in October.” It did not. — Garth

#90 BS on 12.01.15 at 10:42 pm

Days ago the CEO of Canada Mortgage and Housing gave a private presentation to finance guys in New York and warned that if oil drops to $35 a barrel (it’s now $41) and stays there for five years (oil started crashing two years ago) that houses in Canada could lose 26% of their value.

House prices in Canada will lose more than 26% of their value over the next 5 years regardless of what oil does. Sounds like CYA talk. Blame oil prices for the insolvency of CMHC.

#91 BS on 12.01.15 at 10:46 pm

vanreal on 12.01.15 at 6:54 pm

I still don’t see a major crash in house prices in Vancouver. Calgary yes, Toronto maybe, but not Vancouver.

The higher they go the harder they fall. Vancouver will lose the most in percentage terms of any major city in Canada. If rates stay low easily 50%. When rates rise more pain.

#92 Smoking Man on 12.01.15 at 10:49 pm

The response is a valid one to those who say “the market went up 10.3% in October.” It did not. — Garth

Can you not shut up, till I unload this shit bungalow and move to the land of the soon to be nuked..

#93 TCContrarian on 12.01.15 at 10:50 pm

If history repeats (or just ‘rhymes’, as Mark Twain put it), I expect (in ‘real’ terms – as opposed to ‘nominal’) prices of RE in YVR to plummet 60% from peak to trough.
This from watching what happened in the most over-heated markets in the US (ie. SF, Arizona, Florida).

I’m curious what everyone here thinks the % ‘correction’/’crash’/… /soft-landing (LOL), will be.

Perhaps Garth could do a poll as he did for the elections a few weeks ago.

I’m watching from the sidelines as I sold my detached in outskirts of Vancouver a couple months ago.

#94 BS on 12.01.15 at 10:52 pm

Folks in Vancouver just cannot believe YVR house prices could drop even a bit. It’s just unfathomable to them. Real Estate is like a religion out here; or more like a Kool-aid cult actually.

I live in Vancouver and usually keep quiet about RE. Over the past few months at least a dozen people who I don’t know and are up to their eye balls in Vancouver RE have brought up the ‘do you think we are in a bubble?’ conversation. I always answer, who knows but I sure wouldn’t want to be holding any. Once it turns the rush to the exits will fast and furious.

#95 45north on 12.01.15 at 10:52 pm

So what happens when the Fed begins to normalize rates on December 16th, as seems likely? Well, we follow.

Kevin: Considering that debt and the housing market is driving Canada’s economy, how would interest rate rises and a correction in housing not lead to a full blown crash in both housing and the economy?

Patrick: Most of my friends hang on to the belief that if prices do correct that they will eventually recover. Like 1989-present. I don’t think that’s possible just because of low interest rates. But what’s the actual answer to that? If prices correct will we see a recovery in our lifetimes?

so on December 16 this gets serious

#96 Leo Trollstoy on 12.01.15 at 10:53 pm

Negative rates in Canada by the summer, and a 50 cent dollar..

SM your calls are generally spot on but I dunno about this one. I can’t envision the CAD going down much further from here. But we’ll have fun finding out.

#97 Leo Trollstoy on 12.01.15 at 10:55 pm

Wait a second, She went from $800 to $1500 and got twice the size for twice the price?????????????????

Insanity!!

#98 Ken on 12.01.15 at 10:57 pm

Its interesting to note as bank profits grow, household debt continues to break new records. Do you see a correlation? not sure how banks will continue to profit in the long term when 50% population lives pay cheque to pay cheque.

#99 Leo Trollstoy on 12.01.15 at 10:58 pm

Toronto housing prices have trended up for arguably around 20 years (since 1996). What was the longest Toronto RE boom before this? ’74 to ’89?

#100 Jack on 12.01.15 at 11:00 pm

With the rate hike it will only add more burden to Canadian especially when savings are at record low and personal debts getting bigger

#101 Keith in Calgary on 12.01.15 at 11:01 pm

#75 Paul…….

Ummmmm…..no…..she got a place that is twice the size for 50% more ($1,000 versus $1,500)……as well as 2 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a 2 car front drive garage, all utilities included, and 15 minutes from the office versus 45 from her one bedroom apartment condo in “the hood”.

#102 TurnerNation on 12.01.15 at 11:02 pm

#64 Nagraj (if this is your real name) very interesting destabilizing by policy. As I always say 1st World Countries get bombed economically.

#103 Smoking Man on 12.01.15 at 11:05 pm

#96 Leo Trollstoy on 12.01.15 at 10:53 pm
Negative rates in Canada by the summer, and a 50 cent dollar..

SM your calls are generally spot on but I dunno about this one. I can’t envision the CAD going down much further from here. But we’ll have fun finding out.
….

I’m a drunk, so bet how you like.. but this bitch of a voice inside a nectonite head is screaming..

Perhaps your right, I fkd up bombard yeh, and yellow pages..perhaps this is one of those..

#104 Mark on 12.01.15 at 11:09 pm

“With the rate hike it will only add more burden to Canadian especially when savings are at record low and personal debts getting bigger”

To those who are involved with highly leveraged home ownership and own no inversely correlated assets, absolutely.

That’s why Garth pounds the table almost every chance he gets for portfolio diversification, his “rule of 90”, and limiting leverage (particularly the kind that doesn’t result in tax-deductible interest!).

If the US is any indication, the real “losers” end up being people under the age of 40 who, as a cohort, are almost entirely rendered underwater. But at least they have time to repair their balance sheets, declare bankruptcy, whatever they need to do to fix their mess. Boomers, in contrast, who are significantly overweight RE and RE-correlated assets have circumstances far more dire.

There will be big winners though. In hindsight, avoiding housing, especially at the peak (or 2 years past peak) will have been a slam-dunk in hindsight. Just like avoiding Nortel shares. Unfortunately many will be trapped in the consequences of their incredibly poor decision making prowess.

#105 pwn3d on 12.01.15 at 11:10 pm

#79 Mark on 12.01.15 at 10:10 pm
“I’m a mortgage broker and just got the email today. Scotia raised the variable to prime minus 20 basis points as of tomorrow. That was P-65 about a month ago.”

Cue the wailing from the Realtors and other RE pumpers who thought the cheap money would last forever.
————–

Cue another long winded stupid as f#@$ response from Mark. Nobody goes to a broker to get a mortgage from Scotia Bank. Anyone not you can still get a P – .6 mortgage.

Your intelligence was undeniably well past its peak in grade 5.

#106 Brett on 12.01.15 at 11:17 pm

Hi from Calgary.

My wife has been house horny for two years. But not so much now. We have seen significant downward movement in the market over the.past three months. Much more than CREB is owning up to. Price decreases, re listing -the lot. So much that even she is offside now suggests that we simply rent a larger pad.

I do not think that we have seen anything yet. We are leaving town next month until April. We expect to see price decreases at an increased pace. Seperation payments are drying up, oil and IT is dead quiet, and businesses secondary to O&G are now downsizing. Watch for more in mid January.

I see the worried look in people’s eyes. It is not good, and as our Mayor has said the worst is yet to come. I agree with him.

#107 Smoking Man on 12.01.15 at 11:22 pm

#106 Brett on 12.01.15 at 11:17 pm
Hi from Calgary.

My wife has been house horny for two years. But not so much now. We have seen significant downward movement in the market over the.past three months. Much more than CREB is owning up to. Price decreases, re listing -the lot. So much that even she is offside now suggests that we simply rent a larger pad.

I do not think that we have seen anything yet. We are leaving town next month until April. We expect to see price decreases at an increased pace. Seperation payments are drying up, oil and IT is dead quiet, and businesses secondary to O&G are now downsizing. Watch for more in mid January.

I see the worried look in people’s eyes. It is not good, and as our Mayor has said the worst is yet to come. I agree with him.

He’s a commie listen to him..

#108 Gray Man on 12.01.15 at 11:22 pm

#81 Gray Man on 12.01.15 at 10:21 pmNegative in The I.O.U. of America also.If the Banks that own and control the Fed decide its in their best interest to raise or go negative , then thats what will happen.

The Fed reports to Congress, not member banks. Pure fiction. — Garth

Pure fiction from Alan Greenspan’ own mouth I suppose?
http://www.debunkingskeptics.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=388&mobile=off

Of course theFed is independent, as are all major monetary-policy-setting central banks. You need more tinfoil, son? — Garth

#109 Smoking Man on 12.01.15 at 11:24 pm

#105 pwn3d on 12.01.15 at 11:10 pm
#79 Mark on 12.01.15 at 10:10 pm
“I’m a mortgage broker and just got the email today. Scotia raised the variable to prime minus 20 basis points as of tomorrow. That was P-65 about a month ago.”

Cue the wailing from the Realtors and other RE pumpers who thought the cheap money would last forever.
————–

Cue another long winded stupid as f#@$ response from Mark. Nobody goes to a broker to get a mortgage from Scotia Bank. Anyone not you can still get a P – .6 mortgage.

Your intelligence was undeniably well past its peak in grade 5.
..

Go easy on mark, no one on here makes me laugh more, I need the entertainment factor….

#110 Sarah Mclachlan on 12.01.15 at 11:25 pm

The Canadian media is working overtime to cover up whats happening.

““Old timers up here say it’s the worst they’ve ever seen…worse than the 80’s. The news hasn’t given this any justice. People are losing their shirts and it’s not just the rig workers. It’s the local restaurants that are boarded up…the Boston pizza is laying off, companies are pulling out.”

This guys right….but it’s not just AB and Northern BC..it’s Canada wide. The media is still trying to promote Justin as ‘sexy’…..and the Syrians are great cover for an economy that’s spiraling down the toilet.

Individual companies have been announcing major job cuts every day of the week…and all we get is ‘Oh Justin, you’re so sexy”…from the pissants in the media.

#111 Ronaldo on 12.01.15 at 11:42 pm

#13 Zee

”For major price correction, you need mortgage rates of closer to 5% and this will not happen.”

When prices of houses are at levels where they are unaffordable at zero percent interest, you don’t need any further increases to cause a price correction. When everyone is pickled in debt and the banks tighten up the lending, the house of cards will come crashing down. Just give it a bit more time.

#112 Mark on 12.01.15 at 11:43 pm

“Anyone not you can still get a P – .6 mortgage.”

I’ll defer to the mortgage broker poster on whether or not that is true. And ignore your ad hominem.

However, one observation I’ve made is that, with declining prices/equity and declining job prospects of late, an increasing quantum of the mortgage population is no longer even qualifying at the advertised lowest rates. Many, particularly those who lost their jobs recently and are living on severance payouts or EI, are even signing the “posted rate” offers sent to them by their financial institutions rather than being able to use the negotiating leverage they previously possessed to get the previously available ‘best rates’.

This is what’s so insidious about rising interest rates and decreasing equity / decreasing personal credit-worthiness. It drives actual spreads up quite considerably. Even if prices don’t end up declining as dramatically as some predict, the banks are set to shake an awful lot of wealth out of the Canadian mortgage borrowing population. Just like they did in the 1990s, which was the reason the bank stocks mostly quadrupled 1990-2000.

#113 bubu on 12.01.15 at 11:45 pm

When somebody is listing a $11.7M house in Edmonton, something is wrong for sure ….

http://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/16394945/5620-WHITEMUD-Road-Edmonton-Alberta-T6H4N3-Brander-Gardens

$4.8M just reduced by $1M or over 20% : http://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/16144644/44-Kingsford-Crescent-St-Albert-Alberta-T8N7J2-Kingswood

The problem is for the average house which is still the same as before the oil collapse … or more expensive…

#114 Gray Man on 12.01.15 at 11:46 pm

So who has their foot on the accelerator when it comes to steering the economy The Federal Reserve ( as Federal as Federal Express ) or Congress.

#115 Squirrel Soup on 12.01.15 at 11:47 pm

107 Smoking Man on 12.01.15 at 11:22 pm

#106 Brett on 12.01.15 at 11:17 pm
Hi from Calgary.

My wife has been house horny for two years. But not so much now. We have seen significant downward movement in the market over the.past three months. Much more than CREB is owning up to. Price decreases, re listing -the lot. So much that even she is offside now suggests that we simply rent a larger pad.

I do not think that we have seen anything yet. We are leaving town next month until April. We expect to see price decreases at an increased pace. Seperation payments are drying up, oil and IT is dead quiet, and businesses secondary to O&G are now downsizing. Watch for more in mid January.

I see the worried look in people’s eyes. It is not good, and as our Mayor has said the worst is yet to come. I agree with him.

He’s a commie listen to him..
————————————–
Since we know the anti-smoking campaigns were actually all a giant commie conspiracy too based on false science apparently.

A movie for you… since everything is a commie to you.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merchants_of_Doubt

#116 Squirrel Soup on 12.01.15 at 11:50 pm

103 Smoking Man on 12.01.15 at 11:05 pm

#96 Leo Trollstoy on 12.01.15 at 10:53 pm
Negative rates in Canada by the summer, and a 50 cent dollar..

SM your calls are generally spot on but I dunno about this one. I can’t envision the CAD going down much further from here. But we’ll have fun finding out.
….

I’m a drunk, so bet how you like.. but this bitch of a voice inside a nectonite head is screaming..

Perhaps your right, I fkd up bombard yeh, and yellow pages..perhaps this is one of those..
—————————–
How’s the long oil bet going!.. ww3 still on the way to save that one!!

#117 Ronaldo on 12.01.15 at 11:50 pm

Recap on job losses in Alberta this year. I here from a friend whose son works for Schlumberger in Red Deer that they have laid off most of their people and looking at moving out totally. Going to be a slow year for real estate in the sunny Okanagan.

http://globalnews.ca/news/1889598/timeline-tracking-the-layoffs-in-albertas-oilpatch/

#118 Gray Man on 12.01.15 at 11:52 pm

Bad things happen when there are two trying to drive as seems to be the case with your explanation. A good book for one to read about how the Fed came to be is The Creature from Jekyll Island.

#119 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.01.15 at 11:54 pm

@#9 A canadian in Portland
“I’d rather eat goat hair than go back……”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I’m stealing that line for the future…..

#120 Leo Trollstoy on 12.01.15 at 11:55 pm

Go easy on mark, no one on here makes me laugh more, I need the entertainment factor….

Ditto.

I agree that smart and rich isn’t as funny. I just feel bad for the mislead newbies but you can’t have it all…

#121 Warren - the lagging indicator on 12.02.15 at 12:01 am

If the Government can not seem to close down loopholes for high income earners and the effective tax rate goes down then why do they not just keep raising the nominal tax rate on this group until all loopholes are exhausted and an effective tax rate is achieved? Would the result be, lower overall revenue to the Government due to a decrease in size of this tax group base because money would leave the country? Could they not stop this also?

#122 Darren on 12.02.15 at 12:02 am

If you don’t believe Garth, listen to Mr. Wonderful;
http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=760243

#123 Ronaldo on 12.02.15 at 12:10 am

#65 Linda –

”Guess who had the greatest difficulty when the economy went into a tail spin? Hint – not the ones who lived within their means…..”

That is exactly what I have found too Linda. Those with the least money are better at budgeting than those with the most money……….I’ve seen that in my own family.

#124 IHCTD9 on 12.02.15 at 12:12 am

Come on Dec 16, I need a rate hike gift wrapped under the real live from the boreal forest christmas tree I cut down rolling coal with a 15 hp diesel powered chainsaw, while my dog and I passed many cubic metres of ozone destroying methane and breathed out c02 like your tree hugging friends worst nightmare.

#125 g on 12.02.15 at 12:17 am

Good thing we’re doing our part to keep greenhouse gases and pollution at bay…yeah, smiley photo ops and hope….check out the scene in China

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/beijing-factories-shut-amid-smog-nightmare/ar-AAfT347?ocid=mailsignoutmd

#126 Suede on 12.02.15 at 12:32 am

ok blog dogs…

I’m about to ruin some marriages and relationships.

So for those of you me that don’t have the negotiation tactics down with your spouses, tread carefully.

I know many dogs have created spreadsheets, but they blew. Bad user experience and design.

This is something your spouse can understand.

The ultimate RENT vs BUY indicator.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-calculator.html?_r=0

#127 Capt. Obvious on 12.02.15 at 12:48 am

This oil wreck reminds me so very much of the early 2000s tech wreck. For people who worked in telecom equipment design and manufacture it was a grim time. The music always stops.

#128 BC Guy on 12.02.15 at 12:49 am

OPEC is meeting this Friday.

OPEC countries are suffering immensely from low oil prices, almost as much as Alberta. They are putting pressure on Saudi Arabia to cut production and restore prices higher.

Should be interesting. Oil might jump Friday and keep going higher for a couple of months, possible back to $70-$80. We’ll see.

Funny guy. — Garth

#129 Entrepreneur on 12.02.15 at 1:01 am

Too funny #84 No Name about the math. Haven’t seen algebra for awhile but yours looked a little bit off. LOL

It is too bad our great leaders with their carbon tax (like the one here in B.C…are just collecting and supposing reducing the emissions) did not have a plan B for these oil workers?????? I would say bad leadership!!!!

I am with Smoking Man tonight…having a drink or two or???

#130 kommykim on 12.02.15 at 1:06 am

RE:

#125 g on 12.02.15 at 12:17 am
Good thing we’re doing our part to keep greenhouse gases and pollution at bay…yeah, smiley photo ops and hope….check out the scene in China

Yea, that’s exactly what our country would look like if we followed the no regulation, business Trumps all, growth at all costs ideology of some people.

#131 Riding the Pine on 12.02.15 at 1:23 am

Some solid arguments against a fed rate hike…

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/29/us-fiscal-policy-exports-weigh-against-december-fed-hike.html

#132 Nagraj on 12.02.15 at 1:30 am

for #102 TURNER NATION

(My real name is not Nagraj.)

I didn’t imply in #64 that anybody’s deliberately destabilizing Canada politically.

But if JT hadn’t been perhaps lucky enough (via our electoral system) to get a solid majority in the House, the other alternative, a minority, would have caught foreign bondholders’ attention – and recall that at the start of the campaign the NDP was on course to form the gov’t for the first time in history.

The idea that a sustained 10% unemployment rate is politically destabilizing in any country isn’t my own – (can’t recall the source).

When Evan Siddal (CMHC CEO) raises the possibility of a 12% unemployment rate in Canada – I’d say all hell would break loose just approaching that number.

Re your remark that 1st world countries get economically bombed – there’s also self-sabotage . . .

(Sabotage is a fun word, a sabot is a peasant’s wooden shoe, if yer mad at your boss you throw a sabot into the machinery – monkey wrench into the works.)

KREDITANSTALT’s last post also tangentially raises the importance of the unemployment rate.

I’m probably correct when I say that our gracious host’s attention here to Canadian unemployment has been focused on the effect on the housing mkt. And, indeed, falling house prices are THE foremost worry of the Canadian establishment.

#133 OXI in GREECE on 12.02.15 at 1:30 am

#81 Gray Man on 12.01.15 at 10:21 pm
Negative in The I.O.U. of America also.
If the Banks that own and control the Fed decide its in their best interest to raise or go negative , then thats what will happen.

The Fed reports to Congress, not member banks. Pure fiction. — Garth
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

The Fed reports to Congress as well as its private shareholders. Anyone thinking the Fed is owned by the people of the USA is thinking fiction.

#134 Spaccone on 12.02.15 at 1:35 am

Blast to the past…”Suzanne researched this”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=20n-cD8ERgs&feature=youtu.be

#135 Armstrong nation on 12.02.15 at 1:39 am

so at a time like this do we take in refugees?
It’s too bad our PM has a mental illness….

#136 Great Canadian Bubble Co. on 12.02.15 at 1:40 am

#47 Sean it depends on where we go from here. I moved to 20% USD recently. Yes, it would have been better to do more earlier, but do you really see the CDN strengthening as the Fed raises rates? I see a lower dollar for longer.

Anyways, he will be laughing if it drops to 60 cents.

#137 Washed Up Lawyer on 12.02.15 at 1:46 am

#63 Leo Trollstoy on 12.01.15 at 9:11 pm

Hard to imagine the fall in oil impacting YVR and Toronto’s ever increasing house prices but never say never.
******************

I am incapable of analyzing economic data and predicting how it will spell out in YVR and 416. But, give me a couple of days to glance at a couple of oil sands Socio Economic Impact Assessments to provide some numbers.

The eye-popping numbers on the capex and opex spend within Canada but outside of Alberta are big. Really big.

I will try to find some links and cut down on the verbiage as I do not want to look like Ward Cornell, Ron MacLean or Foster Hewitt.

Or, should I just shut up?

#138 Tony on 12.02.15 at 2:08 am

Re: #20 Patrick on 12.01.15 at 7:16 pm

The author of the article states the millennials here will be better off.

The millennials here are nothing but fish bait and will end up as road kill as the housing market corrects here. The millennials have nothing in savings and all they care about is their Iphones and Ipads. Too bad they didn’t care enough to get a second job before the fact.

#139 peter on 12.02.15 at 2:17 am

Fort Nelson has a population of < 4,000. Its a one industry town focused on natural gas. If and when BC gets LNG facilities Fort Nelson will recover. The bigger concern is Alberta. They really are hooped. Low oil prices, anti-carbon sentiment & an NDP gvt is about as perfect a storm as one could imagine.
As far as Vancouver & Toronto are concerned, the Chinese continue to buy. Finally, somebody has actually quantified and verified this to be true.
Re. US rates going up. Janet Yellen make Ben Bernanke look like a dove. Global PMI's are falling like domino's so I doubt the Fed will raise rates any time soon. We have seen this move before.
Unfortunately, house prices look like they will continue to rise in the big Canadian cities X Alberta. Feel for young folks. If they buy now they will experience financial pain. Its just a matter of how soon.

#140 stage1dave on 12.02.15 at 2:21 am

#11 Brydle604;

That’s a great point, & one EVERYONE should be paying attention to…especially present & future entrepreneurs…better start making Nike a case study in the College of Commerce :)

Bricks n mortar may fade a bit for years to come. Out here in central AB, I can concur with most posters here…and our host…this will not end well. I see several multi-million dollar plots of raw land up for sale; even some developers are bailing.

I’ve got more firsthand horror stories to relate than time or space permits, but suffice it to say that major brand retailers based in anything motorized out here are hurting; lots of unsold product on the floor, 2016 stuff arriving, and no buyers. Lotsa credit available too, just nobody is accessing it…potential customers already maxed out (or perhaps more importantly) scared & not biting. And, of course, the downstream retailers & service providers are feeling it as well.

Strangely (or perhaps predictably?) commercial lease rates haven’t dropped much…lots of triple net leases available in the low to mid teens psf :) Wonder how long that will last?

Talked to 2 people in the last week who broke their leases , & shut down their business this summer/fall…they simply don’t want the overhead going forward. In both their opinions, paying the penalty was cheap compared to the potential disaster of maintaining the status quo. They both are pulling back, laying off, & anticipating the worst…and will be working out of the garage.

On a local level, that’s 8-10 more people who aren’t gonna be headin’ to Walmart, Pizza Hut, or hangin’ at Timmies; everyone feels that. They sure as hell won’t be buyin’ new cars or used houses, either.

All the above is common knowledge in this geographical area, and I’m sure people as always will see what they choose to in order to maintain their belief systems. Even me…political affiliation, btw; is playing a huge part in attitudes out here, & should not be discounted. Lots of Lib & Dipper haters around.

At my advanced state of decay, I’ve seen this movie a few times before so I took appropriate action (or perhaps more accurately stated, what I thought – and hope – was) over a year ago. The wife & I are diversified enuff that a whole bunch of things are gonna have to go to hell all at once to bury us, but we’re not “well off” enuff to help a few souls close to us that are probably headed for the crusher. Not that they’d listen to us anyway…

(Unless they rent our spare bedroom, in which case they’ll have to. Any unguarded and rare condescension on our part would be cancelled out by my wife’s awesome cooking)

Anyway, for such an informed guy even I “misunderestimated” this coming fiasco, (haha…that’s the last W quote I’ll ever use) had to dip into the cookie jar TWICE in the last quarter to pay out our expenses thru Feb. (something we usually do anyway, paying holiday expenses forward) Usually it gets taken out of cash flow, but not this year. Scaled back my income projections for the fall/winter by 30% and I was still short!

The only bright spot I see this season is a comparative lack of snow, warmer temps, and a lot more time to play guitar & paint. Daytime TV still sux, so I’ll make the best of it.

#141 Strathcona on 12.02.15 at 2:22 am

Here in Grande Prairie, Northern AB, it’s bad. Neighbours getting laid off over the past year, friends too. The local real estate board is playing games, they released sales numbers for the past month early in the next month when prices were rising. Now that they’ve stalled or fallen, the local board simply stopped publishing them. Up until last week, the August results were the latest on their website. We finally have September’s now…

I examined old RE sales magazine listings from last year against now. Houses are now asking here from $30k to $100k less than January. Same homes. Some are same addresses even. One was $579k last year, now $479k..

If you ask a realtor, its always a good time to buy.. like asking a barber if you need a haircut.

#142 Tony on 12.02.15 at 2:51 am

Re: #93 TCContrarian on 12.01.15 at 10:50 pm

Just factor in the cost of housing dropping to 3 times household yearly income from 11 times household yearly income in Vancouver.

#143 Ralph Cramdown on 12.02.15 at 3:08 am

#105 pwn3d — “Nobody goes to a broker to get a mortgage from Scotia Bank.”

Yet somehow, 17% of them end up with a mortgage from Scotiabank, the market leader in the broker channel.

http://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/canadian_mortgage_trends/2015/09/broker-market-share-q2-2015.html

#144 Darryl on 12.02.15 at 3:31 am

#93 TCContrarian on 12.01.15 at 10:50 pm
If history repeats (or just ‘rhymes’, as Mark Twain put it), I expect (in ‘real’ terms – as opposed to ‘nominal’) prices of RE in YVR to plummet 60% from peak to trough.
This from watching what happened in the most over-heated markets in the US (ie. SF, Arizona, Florida).

I’m curious what everyone here thinks the % ‘correction’/’crash’/… /soft-landing (LOL), will be.

Perhaps Garth could do a poll as he did for the elections a few weeks ago.

I’m watching from the sidelines as I sold my detached in outskirts of Vancouver a couple months ago.
——————-

Hey, I don’t remember San Francisco dropping 60% after the US housing collapse. People are still coming to Vancouver… Regardless of the economy. And that is what will sustain high priced real estate. Just simple Supply vs. Demand.

#145 Hicksville Alberta on 12.02.15 at 3:39 am

Bumped into a local town kid yesterday. He has been working up north in the oil patch on a project for some time. Said they laid off about 600 and closed down suspended the project on the weekend so he is out of work for now.

Think there may be a lot of stranded money out there in some projects and contractors equipment with little or no chance of significant recovery of investment if at all.

One thing you can believe in the oil patch right now, the appetite for even owning production let alone making new investments is fast diminishing. Way too much uncertainty and not enough trust if you are an owner.

Right now, even with cheap interest rates and all i’m not so certain i would be very interested in individual oil and gas properties here even at a five or so year payout. Or maybe at all. Too much Grift against and too much responsibility being an owner.

Notheadly’s new interference against small farms should be a red flag to anyone considering investing or owning anything in Alberta, perhaps especially anything business related.

And woe to the owners of the office buildings and some commercial and retail real estate as well.

#146 family beagle on 12.02.15 at 4:10 am

#25 nonplused on 12.01.15 at 7:24 pm
#67 Ret on 12.01.15 at 9:31 pm

Yep.
….

#37 Nanaimo on 12.01.15 at 8:06 pm

I apportion % monthly to USD and CAD accts. Occasionally I assess spread, move funds, take profit. No worry about being correct. I still make the deposit, up or down. I sell online into USD acct so that saves some fees.

Greaterfool…I enjoyed this post and comments. Lots of drama. I’d add taxes/gov as an industry in Canada. Thankfully, the tax man left us independents the vow of perpetual poverty seeing as climate change is the new religion. Tax the weather to pay for entitlements… smartly metered, indeed. We owe because we exist, the leaders will agree, and therefore we owe government, nature’s proxy on earth.

#147 Say it with charts... on 12.02.15 at 5:09 am

September 2015 GDP (-0.5%):

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/151201/cg-b003-eng.htm

BMO chief economist Doug Porter, in a note to clients, says while it’s “tempting” to say that “phony recession-mania has bitten the dust, it is a tad unsettling that GDP took such a sizeable step back in September.”

“There is good reason to believe that the relatively strong growth of the third quarter will not be repeated,” TD economist Brian DePratto wrote in a note to clients.

Real estate has been a bright spot for a sluggish economy, but construction activity was flat in September and agent and mortgage broker activity pulled back 1.7 percent from August levels…TD notes that real estate has been one of the bedrocks of the economy, but it sees the housing market taking a “breather” as exports take a leading role next year.

______________________________________

Yes YVR and 416, you are but sovereign nations within another nation that set their own independent economic and monetary policy and thus, render your RE markets immune to the vagaries of what is happening in the rest of the country.

Have fun with that.

#148 liquidincalgary on 12.02.15 at 6:41 am

Bytor the Snow Dog on 12.01.15 at 8:53 pm

#46 – If I’m Mr. Daoust I’m fighting that ticket. It won’t hold up as they can’t give tickets on private property.

================================================

untrue.

“It applies to any road, highway or thoroughfare, whether publicly or privately owned.”

direct quote from linked article

#149 liquidincalgary on 12.02.15 at 8:05 am

A movie for you… since everything is a commie to you.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Merchants_of_Doubt

================================================

and is now playing on netflix

#150 Smoking Man on 12.02.15 at 8:53 am

#116 Squirrel Soup on 12.01.15 at 11:50 pm
103 Smoking Man on 12.01.15 at 11:05 pm

#96 Leo Trollstoy on 12.01.15 at 10:53 pm
Negative rates in Canada by the summer, and a 50 cent dollar..

SM your calls are generally spot on but I dunno about this one. I can’t envision the CAD going down much further from here. But we’ll have fun finding out.
….

I’m a drunk, so bet how you like.. but this bitch of a voice inside a nectonite head is screaming..

Perhaps your right, I fkd up bombard yeh, and yellow pages..perhaps this is one of those..
—————————–
How’s the long oil bet going!.. ww3 still on the way to save that one!!
….

The hedge doing what it’s designed to do.

Ww3 on track

http://www.prisonplanet.com/russia-to-deploy-new-doomsday-plane-in-readiness-for-nuclear-war.html

http://www.prisonplanet.com/house-democrat-warns-obamas-actions-could-lead-to-devastating-nuclear-war.html

#151 LowRent of Arabia on 12.02.15 at 9:22 am

Pizza here is crap. I wish we had a Boston Pizza.

#152 Ronaldo on 12.02.15 at 9:36 am

#138 Tony on 12.02.15 at 2:08 am
Re: #20 Patrick on 12.01.15 at 7:16 pm

”The author of the article states the millennials here will be better off.”
————————————————————
The millennials here are nothing but fish bait and will end up as road kill as the housing market corrects here. The millennials have nothing in savings and all they care about is their Iphones and Ipads. Too bad they didn’t care enough to get a second job before the fact.
—————————————————————
I tend to agree with you on this one Tony. The current housing market now depends on this group (the millennials) to keep the bubble inflated but since they don’t have any money and most are still living in their parents basement, the parents will continue to give them the downpayment just to get them the heck out. So when the last one is out of the basement, the correction will take place. lol

#153 crowdedelevatorfartz on 12.02.15 at 9:38 am

@#128 BC Guy
“Oil might jump Friday and keep going higher for a couple of months, possible back to $70-$80. We’ll see.”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Your socialist left leaning rants about “taking back” foreign owned land in the interior of BC from rich foreigners and allowing BC residents a chance to buy it makes more sense…. Is the snow flying in Spuzzum today?

#154 JSS on 12.02.15 at 9:51 am

National Bank hikes dividend 5%.

#155 Deuce Awesome on 12.02.15 at 9:55 am

I read Rick Rubin’s peak oil book a few years back and was convinced that we were never seeing oil below $80 again. Then the Saudi’s open the spiggots and here we are.

Nobody saw that coming. Just like noone will predict a shock sending prices back up. Its all manipulated by political and corporate interests who care nothing of little guys like us.

#156 Alistair McLaughlin on 12.02.15 at 10:14 am

Naraj, we’ve had sustained 10%+ unemployment twice over the past 40 years. First in the early 80s: Unemployment climbed above 10% in May of 1982 and remained above 10% until January of 1986. That’s 44 straight months of over 10% unemployment.. The peak was December 1982, when the unemployment rate hit 13.1% – a post-Great Depression record that still stands.

The second such period was February 1991 to November 1994 – 45 straight months of 10% or higher unemployment. The peak was 12.1% in November of 1992.

Neither of these periods was particularly unstable from a political standpoint. There was the sovereignty issue in Quebec, and the Constitutional shenanigans of Pierre Trudeau (1980-1982) and Brian Mulroney (1990 – 92) Interestingly, and probably coincidentally, our leaders were engaged in Constitutional negotiations rather than actual leadership during both periods of peak unemployment. Probably a blessing, since governments tend to prolong recessions with their interventions. However, there were no riots, no revolution, no mass social unrest to speak of. Just long, grinding, miserable, soul-destroying unemployment and hopelessness.

Some interesting factoids here: Both periods saw unemployment linger for years after the recessions had officially ended. Counter-intuitively, unemployment remained high even during extremely strong “growth” years. For example, 1984 saw real GDP growth of 5.6% in Canada. The average unemployment that year – 11.4%. That’s not a typo. We had screaming real GDP growth and crushing unemployment at the same time.
Likewise, in 1994 we had 4.6% real GDP growth, with unemployment averaging 10.4%.

Two lessons in all this: First, we can endure periods of miserable, grinding economic malaise a lot better than we think. (But don’t underestimate how miserable it is – my parents experienced chronic under/unemployment during the first recession; I experienced it myself during the second one. It sucks, worse than you can imagine, unless you’ve lived it. And I consider myself to have gotten off easy both times compared to many families I knew.). Second, the hangover from recession is almost invariably worse than the recession itself. A return of strong GDP growth by itself does nothing to ease unemployment, until both business and consumer confidence return. And that can take years.

#157 Sparky on 12.02.15 at 10:14 am

Too bad to hear about Ft Nelson. I lived there for 10 years, great place and awesome people living there. The locals will pull through, some of the most resilient I’ve ever met. Winters are long and cold, but the wildlife and outback are something to see.

#158 TurnerNation on 12.02.15 at 10:18 am

People paying attention might deduce decisions like refugees and carbon taxes are not JT’s doing but a global plan some say to disrupt and even destroy certain economies and cultures. Easier to sell using a charismatic leader. Kanada new unemployment +2.6 billion stolen + refugees =?

Say I wonder how many refugees H’s little friend country in ME will take

#159 IHCTD9 on 12.02.15 at 10:38 am

#141 Strathcona on 12.02.15 at 2:22 am
Here in Grande Prairie, Northern AB, it’s bad. Neighbours getting laid off over the past year, friends too. The local real estate board is playing games, they released sales numbers for the past month early in the next month when prices were rising. Now that they’ve stalled or fallen, the local board simply stopped publishing them. Up until last week, the August results were the latest on their website. We finally have September’s now…

I examined old RE sales magazine listings from last year against now. Houses are now asking here from $30k to $100k less than January. Same homes. Some are same addresses even. One was $579k last year, now $479k..

If you ask a realtor, its always a good time to buy.. like asking a barber if you need a haircut.
____________________________________________

This same type of fear will be the point of the knife in Ontario as well IMHO. If the US FED does not raise, and/or BoC does not cut, there will be [more] trouble brewing. Alberta loss of energy activity does affect Ontario, just as lack of mining affects us. We have two major steel mills going broke, a major auto manufacturer that may finally pack up and leave for good, all manner of closures, while roughly half of Ontario’s entire population is looking at overpriced housing where they live.

We’ve got food bank usage through the roof, ten thousand essentially unemployable refugees coming in, wage stagnation, job losses, a truly diseased government, and a single hope that manufacturing picks up which would also support the bubblicious GTA housing market.

I can see as much bad if Yellen doesn’t raise rates (another nail in Ontario’s manufacturing sector), as if she does (goodbye cheap credit? Bubble popper?).

If things get much worse in Ontario’s job market, Millennials with 800K mortgages will be screaming at Yellen for a hike!

#160 Ralph Cramdown on 12.02.15 at 10:40 am

#157 Sparky — “The locals will pull through, some of the most resilient I’ve ever met.”

Anyone else notice how the most resilient people always seem to be living in the crappiest places? Should we call the people who moved or are living elsewhere less resilient, or just smarter? This post is not intended to ruffle the feathers of otherwise resilient indigenous fauna.

#161 Broke Dick on 12.02.15 at 11:00 am

Today’s photo. Passive zombies. Notice it is all down hill for them.

#162 MF on 12.02.15 at 11:08 am

158 TurnerNation on 12.02.15 at 10:18 am

Hey pal,

Funny you didn’t mention zuckerberg’s billion dollar donation to charity. Doesn’t match your BS conspiracy theory I suppose. He’s one of the richest people on the planet. Not “elite” enough for you?

MF

#163 Alistair McLaughlin on 12.02.15 at 11:24 am

@ # 160 Ralph:

I’ll answer that. The people buying condos in downtown Toronto or Vancouver are most certainly not smarter than longtime Fort Nelson residents. Even suburbanites in any major city – who may well be smarter – are not as resilient. Rural dwellers have survival skills suburbanites wouldn’t know the first thing about. Growing/killing your own food chief among them.

I grew up in a rural area. We had a small patch of land. We had a cow for milk and raised a calf for beef. Chickens for eggs some years. And a huge garden, much of it canned/frozen for winter consumption. So yes, we were far more resilient than suburbanites. Through the early 1980s recession, we suffered like a lot of people, but never lost our house, never wondered where our next meal came from. Had we been in the same position in the suburbs (let alone a downtown condo), I can’t imagine what we’d have done. And no, there were not more opportunities in the big centres in the early-to-mid-1980s. Not at 10% to 13% unemployment for years on end.

As an adult a decade later, I lived in Winnipeg, and experienced the grinding reality of the early-90s recession in an urban environment. Needless to say, I liked the first recession better. If another recession hits and I lose my job, I know where I’m going. I’m not remaining in Ottawa that’s for sure. It will be back to rural MB for me until things turn up again. I won’t thrive out there, but I can survive and be semi-content. The walls of a bachelor suite apartment can feel an awful lot like a prison when you have no money and no purpose. If that’s my option, give me a garden to work and a productive fall hunting season any day.

#164 Daisy Mae on 12.02.15 at 11:29 am

#3: “God forbid the Boston Pizza laying off. Never had such a horrible over priced pizza….

*****************

And, whatever you do, don’t order wine @ $7 — anywhere! ;-)

#165 mousy on 12.02.15 at 11:54 am

Suede
Thanks for posting the fantastic rent v. buy chart.

#166 CJBob on 12.02.15 at 11:59 am

Bank of Canada hints that U.S. and Canadian interest rate direction will diverge:

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/12/02/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-decision-december_n_8698028.html

I’m not saying rates in Canada will never go up. I am saying it ain’t happening anytime soon.

The central bank rate does not set five-year mortgage rates. Nonetheless, the BoC will in time follow the Fed. It always has. Don’t get too excited. — Garth

#167 Bram on 12.02.15 at 12:00 pm

#126 Suede
The ultimate RENT vs BUY indicator.

Your linked calculator is not applicable here.
It’s for the US market, where borrowers can deduct mortgage for tax purposes.

In Canada, a mortgage is not deductible.
This means that buying for same amount is more expensive here than in US, so renting could be more attractive even though your calculator says it is not.

#168 IHCTD9 on 12.02.15 at 12:10 pm

#156 Alistair McLaughlin on 12.02.15 at 10:14 am
Naraj, we’ve had sustained 10%+ unemployment twice over the past 40 years. …
____________________________________________

Good post. These days when I look at historical downturns, I try to update the old situation with current conditions that are unique to our day.

Some new things to contend with this time around if we are indeed headed for double digit unemployment:

Massive levels of immigrants, TFW legislation, and what unknown impacts the TPP will have on increases for both skilled and unskilled (even professional) foreign workers in the near future.

Consumer debt never been higher

Mortgage debt never been higher

A full on Global economy today – and the emergence of China as an economic superpower.

The internet, easy global communication, and sourcing and much more.

Those are some massive, earth shaking changes compared to the 80’s. Those things we have lost in the last decade and a half look to be staying lost. I sort of think we’re not going into a dip, but something with more permanence.

One bloody lucky thing we have as Canadian is what we have in the ground, and what grows and lives above it. Demand for natural resources will always come back around again.

Time will tell, but in the meantime I’ll be concentrating on dodging the Federal vacuum aimed at my wallet.

#169 TRT on 12.02.15 at 12:24 pm

It’s official folks.

Bank of Canada just mentioned “policy divergence”.

Means we will not follow FED.

Rates to stay low, housing to the moon in YVR with this and foreign inflows.

Of course Canadian fixed-term rates will rise as the BoC does not control the bond market. Have you learned nothing here? — Garth

#170 TRT on 12.02.15 at 12:26 pm

Loonie going to have a 60 handle very soon.

Kills it for the average snowbirds.

#171 Ronaldo on 12.02.15 at 12:50 pm

#156 – Alistair McLaughlin

”Some interesting factoids here: Both periods saw unemployment linger for years after the recessions had officially ended. Counter-intuitively, unemployment remained high even during extremely strong “growth” years. For example, 1984 saw real GDP growth of 5.6% in Canada. The average unemployment that year – 11.4%. That’s not a typo. We had screaming real GDP growth and crushing unemployment at the same time.”

Remember it well. It was at the same time that computer’s (PC’s) were coming on stream in businesses and government offices around the country. Technology was starting to boom big time. Even the lowly fax machine was responsible for the elimination of many jobs especially on the railways where many former stations were shuttered as train crews could simply pick up their train orders from the fax machine and operations became centralized. Email came on stream in many organizations and personal secretaries became redundant as managers and employees communicated directly amongst one another. The receptionist position became redundant and replaced by the answering machines and cell phones when managers and supervisors were equiped with these devices. We were in the tech boom and the need for people was quickly being replaced by automation. Those were good times for many but many were without work as a result.

#172 cd on 12.02.15 at 12:52 pm

Close to my workplace is one of the best pizza places ever. Its so ridiculous that the new york times has written articles about it. Anyways, its an independent shop thats not very fancy (wooden stools, plastic plates), and the neighbourhood isn’t too fancy either. They always have lineups and they always sell out of the special slice.

The point is… 1) big deal about boston pizza, support your local independent businesses; 2) canada needs more entrepreneurs, especially if something closes down there still might be opportunity at a smaller scale; 3) if you focus on quality people will come, again most canadians don’t understand this, they only care about convenience, quantity and cost.

#173 noel on 12.02.15 at 12:53 pm

The US housing market crashed because of fraudulent sub-prime mortgages. About a quarter of the value outstanding in 2006 were subprime.

In Canada, that number is around 2%. Doomers, there will be no crash.

A correction is inevitable, it always is, but we’re years away in YVR & YYZ, and when the correction does happen it won’t have anything to do with oil, it will have to be a disruption in the service sector.

Oil doesn’t matter to this country nearly as much as the media wants us to believe. Unless of course you live in AB, SK or NL, then good luck to ya.

The US market crashed for a variety of reasons, poor credit quality being only one. Economic decline and job loss were equally important, as was over-borrowing and a Canadian-style house lust. BTW, subprime borrowing is now the fastest-growing segment of Canadian lending. — Garth

#174 Ronaldo on 12.02.15 at 12:54 pm

#155 Deuce Awesome

”I read Rick Rubin’s peak oil book a few years back and was convinced that we were never seeing oil below $80 again. Then the Saudi’s open the spiggots and here we are.”

Kinda makes you wonder about economists and their forecasts don’t it? Kinda like Sherry.

#175 Doug in London on 12.02.15 at 1:10 pm

So, where’s this labour shortage the “experts” have been predicting for many years?

#176 bill on 12.02.15 at 1:25 pm

”Then the Saudi’s open the spiggots and here we are.”
I thought it was the Americans who caused the oil glut by the fracking process in the ‘tight oil’ shale formations.

#177 MF on 12.02.15 at 1:25 pm

#221 Ralph Cramdown on 12.01.15 at 5:27 pm

Interesting isn’t it?

Thing is, even though we are civil (lol) here, internet message boards offer anonymity and allow individuals to express thoughts they would not express in normal everyday “polite” society.

I would argue that due to the above fact, internet boards actually more closely represent the true views of the population, at least to the extent of the individual website’s intended target population’s.

MF

#178 Smoking Man on 12.02.15 at 1:34 pm

There is a glimer of hope for humanity.

This is what a milenial posted on my blog…the kid has brain. Well done..

In response to you blaming teachers for this mess we’re in… I partially agree.

I’d take it further and point it to the government/school boards for not allowing kids to fail. All they do is pass them with these false sense of pride and being correct and can never tell them ‘you’re a fkin idiot’ without being slapped by the union/board for not being ‘sensitive’ enough. They coming into the world with a false sense of justice and think they’re the hottest pieces of shit in the world. Then they get into the real world and wonder why the hell things aren’t all hugs kisses and roses.

Kids these days want more (great!) but they don’t understand that it’s through failures are you able to find your success… this is coming from a 27 y/o… oh well.

Just means I need to find a product to sell to the herd so I can make a killing of their stupidity. Then get taxed to death by the wack job socialists.

#179 Chris on 12.02.15 at 1:41 pm

Meh – “if oil drops to $35 a barrel (it’s now $41) and stays there for five years houses in Canada could lose 26% of their value.” So highly unlikely it’s laughable. If BC/California drop into the ocean, RE prices there will be hit hard. If, if, if. If the Leafs win the cup this year, TO bars will make a killing, but I’m not betting on that either. Get a grip. Sure, oil may stay lower for longer than anticipated, some companies will go under, some people will lose jobs. Other industries will grow, hire, etc. This is nothing new and apocalyptic. Buy a house you can afford, if you can’t afford, don’t buy. Invest for the future in the markets, diversify and don’t gamble. Rinse, repeat.

#180 pwn3d on 12.02.15 at 1:44 pm

#143 Ralph Cramdown on 12.02.15 at 3:08 am
#105 pwn3d — “Nobody goes to a broker to get a mortgage from Scotia Bank.”

Yet somehow, 17% of them end up with a mortgage from Scotiabank, the market leader in the broker channel.
——————-

Your link proves my point. People don’t go to a broker to get a loan from a particular bank. They want the best rate. If Scotia banks rates are no longer competitive they will lose market share. Half of the names on the list most people never heard of, because they don’t care, they just want the cheapest loan.

#181 pwn3d on 12.02.15 at 1:47 pm

The central bank rate does not set five-year mortgage rates. Nonetheless, the BoC will in time follow the Fed. It always has. Don’t get too excited. — Garth
————–

You’re moving goalposts again. If the fed raises rates in Dec, and we raise a year or more from now, that is not ‘following the Fed’

Irrelevant as the bond market will have already moved. — Garth

#182 Panhead on 12.02.15 at 1:54 pm

#163 Alistair McLaughlin on 12.02.15 at 11:24 am
… give me a garden to work and a productive fall hunting season any day.

I know many rural people and from experience know that most would give a friend the shirt off their back if needed. I’ve seen it offered. I am proud to call them my friends even though I am a suburbanite … small communities will see each other through hard times. Always have …

#183 Old Man Too on 12.02.15 at 1:55 pm

Don’t tell P2, but if Harpo hadn’t cut the GST from 6% to 5% we wouldn’t have a deficit now

#184 MF on 12.02.15 at 1:56 pm

Just listened to Janet Yellen live on the Bloomberg app. First time I’ve heard her speak.

Gotta say I love her New York accent. She sounds like a female Woody Allen

“fyurthuur riduction in Laba maiket slayck” lol amazing.

MF

#185 bdy sktrn on 12.02.15 at 2:05 pm

#174 Ronaldo on 12.02.15 at 12:54 pm
#155 Deuce Awesome

”I read Rick Rubin’s peak oil book a few years back and was convinced that we were never seeing oil below $80 again. Then the Saudi’s open the spiggots and here we are.”
——————————–
you mean the americans opened the spigots, yes?

anyhow, peak oil , like man made global warming, was a alarmist sham, which was clear long before that book came out.

#186 Tony on 12.02.15 at 2:06 pm

Yellen’s speech today seems to give a December rate hike the green light. She doesn’t mention the November jobs figure.

#187 Fred Mank on 12.02.15 at 2:07 pm

The Fed is either lying or way behind on the employment data

“Standing near his well-worn Toyota RAV4 that still bears New Brunswick licence plates, Godin, who lives in a work camp, recited all of the different projects in which hundreds of workers had been laid off — layoffs that he’d learned about over the previous few days. ”

But…think positive…Justin in hiring nannies by the score.

#188 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.02.15 at 2:21 pm

#11 Brydle604 on 12.01.15 at 7:10 pm
Something to Think About
December 2015

Disruptive digital Technologies

The Worlds largest Taxi Company owns NO Taxis Uber
Worlds largest Accommodation Company owns NO Real estate AirBnB
Worlds largest Phone Company owns NO Telco infrastructure Skype & WeChat
Worlds most valuable Retailer Owns No inventory Alibaba
Worlds fastest growing bank has No actual MONEY Society One
Worlds most popular Media Company owns No Content Facebook
Worlds largest Movie House owns NO cinemas’ Netflix
Start Up funding on the internet has NO money Crowd Funding Kickstarter, Indiegogo
Stock purchasing with low fees in Canada Virtual Brokers, Questrade
Ones to Watch
Tesla home battery backup and Solar panels
Driverless Cars

Technology is the FUTURE!
——————–
Kinda reminds me of the Seinfeld episode about a show about nothing.
But sooner or later, the Emporer has to wear some clothes.

#189 OXI in GREECE on 12.02.15 at 2:23 pm

#183 Old Man Too on 12.02.15 at 1:55 pm
Don’t tell P2, but if Harpo hadn’t cut the GST from 6% to 5% we wouldn’t have a deficit now
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

We have a deficit because our piss poor govt is 300% bigger than Germanys. Cut it by half and all taxpayers will have a higher std of living.

#190 Ponzius Pilatus on 12.02.15 at 2:23 pm

#14 MSM-Free Zone on 12.01.15 at 7:13 pm
The latest U-Haul barometer (15-foot truck):

Calgary to Vancouver: $799
Vancouver to Calgary: $548
——————
Flew from Van to Calgary and back the other day.
Flight to Calgary was only 1/3 full.
Flight back was full.

#191 bdy sktrn on 12.02.15 at 2:23 pm

621 ATLANTIC STREET, Vancouver, British Columbia V6A2J9
$2,585,000
http://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/16396555/621-ATLANTIC-STREET-Vancouver-British-Columbia-V6A2J9
——————————
the panic-rush for land marches on in east van, even downscale strathcona (touches the DTES) is exploding.

house above is on an undersized lot, built in 1800s although nicely redone.

2.5m seems fully insanely above the market for something like this

however it’s on the doorstep of the new hospital.
but also a single block from the busy prior/viaduct speedway.

they will have to settle for 2.3.

100% gain in about 3 years. mix mix mix.

#192 Balmuto on 12.02.15 at 2:36 pm

“Since 1989 there’s been a 0.91 correlation coefficient between US and Canadian five-year government bonds. That means the odds of our bond yields jumping along with theirs is 91%. The bond market is where fixed mortgage rates (that 86% of people have) are set.””

Absolutely, and it seems reasonable to assume that bond yields will rise during a Fed-tightening cycle. However, here’s one factor that could keep a lid on Treasury yields in the coming year – supply:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-30/there-s-a-big-drop-in-u-s-treasury-debt-supply-coming-in-2016

#193 Bottoms_Up on 12.02.15 at 2:36 pm

#158 TurnerNation on 12.02.15 at 10:18 am
—————————————————
Do tell who is the mastermind behind the global conspiracy…I’m sure we would all like to know who it is?

#194 ALBERTASTROPHE on 12.02.15 at 2:38 pm

Consumer credit delinquencies spike by over 13% in Alberta.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/delinquency-rates-alberta-rise-canada-lowers-1.3346778

The roller coaster is now heading down, picking up speed, no bottom in sight.

#195 NoName on 12.02.15 at 3:12 pm

@ entrepreneur
math was never my forte, I always struggle with it. But that 800/x=1500/2x was hard to miss, plus it was funny. So I tried to make it funnier… But i guess didn’t work. When i was kid, I was regularly kicked out of mathclass for having one too many infractions.

As for that drink, you go ahead and do that, I am back to working stiff mode, no alcohol for me Mon-Sat.

#196 OXI in GREECE on 12.02.15 at 3:17 pm

#193 Bottoms_Up on 12.02.15 at 2:36 pm
#158 TurnerNation on 12.02.15 at 10:18 am
—————————————————
Do tell who is the mastermind behind the global conspiracy…I’m sure we would all like to know who it is?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

There is no point on this blog. All you pro govt pro global warming pro tax the crap out of us pro govt people just call us truthers names and tinfoils……so there is no point in naming names.

#197 OXI in GREECE on 12.02.15 at 3:20 pm

Technology is the FUTURE!
——————–
Kinda reminds me of the Seinfeld episode about a show about nothing.
But sooner or later, the Emporer has to wear some clothes.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

On the contrary…….these technology businesses are extremely efficient and produce much better value unlike legacy corporations and govt. Both of which continually ask the taxpayer for “more money” all the time…..

#198 TurnerNation on 12.02.15 at 3:55 pm

#193. Conspirators are rich gangs. Like the mob apparently runs Montreal construction. See: SNC.

Think higher up the food chain. Say where’d your donations sent to Haiti end up?

#199 Ronaldo on 12.02.15 at 4:34 pm

#175 Doug in London on 12.02.15 at 1:10 pm

”So, where’s this labour shortage the “experts” have been predicting for many years?”

There will be no labour shortages if things continue as they have in the past 30 or so years with improvements in technology replacing people by the day.
Governments are always last to adopt the latest technologies because they know it would result in huge layoffs. I can bet that if anyone with half a brain was to do an audit on government workers they would discover that about a third would not be required. Recessions are great for cleaning up the excesses and private corporations lead the way in this area. If only the governments would follow suit.

#200 Leo Trollstoy on 12.02.15 at 4:41 pm

The U.S. boom continues as workers are getting paid more and more anywhere and everywhere.

http://www.businessinsider.com/wage-pressures-were-everywhere-in-the-beige-book-2015-12

I feel bad for Canada and its economic future.

#201 Ronaldo on 12.02.15 at 5:29 pm

Technology is the FUTURE
———————————

It certainly is, and this is what it’s going to do for us…..

http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/515926/how-technology-is-destroying-jobs/

#202 Bram on 12.02.15 at 5:39 pm

#191 bdy sktrn on 12.02.15 at 2:23 pm
“2.5m seems fully insanely above the market for something like this”

It sure is.
I wonder why they are trying to fetch a west-van price for an east-van house on a mini lot?

It makes no sense.
The only thing it has going for it is the scarcity of detached homes that are so close to the down town core. Single family houses tend to be farther out.

I wonder if this is the large irrational up-spike that announces the final bubble crash? Or maybe just a delusional realtor/seller.

#203 turn of the tide on 12.02.15 at 7:09 pm

“Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff will face impeachment proceedings in Congress, marking a deepening of the political crisis that is dragging Latin America’s largest economy further into recession.”

What a shiFt show. PLACE YOUR BETS :)

Bets this is good for the economy: EWZ
Bets it will get much worse: BZQ

BZQ up 67.37% Year-to-date

I’ll grab some popcorn and enjoy the show

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-02/rousseff-to-face-impeachment-in-brazil-congress-speaker-says

#204 Sparky on 12.03.15 at 10:12 am

#160 Ralph Cramdown
“Anyone else notice how the most resilient people always seem to be living in the crappiest places? Should we call the people who moved or are living elsewhere less resilient, or just smarter? This post is not intended to ruffle the feathers of otherwise resilient indigenous fauna.”

Let me guess, you’ve never been to or heard of Fort Nelson until yesterday. I would also assume you live in Toronto, or another ‘progressive’ Canadian city.

How did to make out during the ice storm 2 years ago? Are you ready for the next one?
Do you have enjoy heat in your home? Do you kno where a very large % of the natural gas we use comes from?

Armchair intellectuals have something to say about everything. Google is nice to have, but try leaving your downtown condo once in awhile, you might be pleasantly surprised.