Doomers

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He’s a billionaire. Sold his Toronto tech company to a megacorp. He also reads this blog. Posts anti-Garth comments. And he’s a doomer. The US is screwed, he says. Rates will never rise.

“I think you are only allowed to cry interest rate going up wolf 3 times,” he wrote lately. “You are going on 20 right now. Do you really want a 21 on Dec 16th? At least, can you admit that you’ve lost ALL credibility on this issue if I am right and you are wrong on Dec 16th?”

He called one day and I asked him where his billion is. “In GICs,” he said. Very progressive, I replied. Hope you like paying a load of tax on interest you haven’t received. Then he vowed if America indeed raises rates in two weeks he’ll actually invest his money. “But it won’t happen.”

But it will. At least that’s the call today, with financial markets currently giving 74% odds the US Fed will end almost a decade of cheap money at its next rate-setting meeting, scheduled for December 15-16. We’ve already discussed the implications here, including a bank forecast that this will up fixed-rate mortgages by almost three-quarters of a point, just as oil creep topples most markets. Already loan costs are swelling. So is the billionaire dude just another doomer loser?

This week will tell us a lot. Monday sees Fed boss Janet Yellen speaking to the Economic Club of Washington. Will she once again say a rate hike in a few days is a “live possibility”? The next day she slides into the witness chair before a Congressional committee, where there’s a 100% chance she’ll be asked if the US economy is strong enough to weather higher rates. And the day after that we’ll find out, when the November jobs numbers are released.

As you know, October’s stats killed it. More than 270,000 new positions were created – the best showing all year, dashing arguments the American economy had slipped into neutral, or worse. Expectations are for about 200,000 to be the headline number this week – judged to be seasonally strong and evidence the Fed is poised for lift-off the following week.

As also pointed out here, rates never rise once and halt. Or reverse. The very reason this initial increase has been so tortuous in its timing – anticipated month after month – is Yellen’s refusal to pull the trigger until it’s clear a tightening cycle can begin. The goal is to bring the cost of money into a historically normal range, so cheap loans and excessive liquidity stop distorting things like real estate and equity prices. That means a series of increases paced over a couple of years – and assiduous thought given as to when it can start.

Doomers say rates can’t rise, however, since this would jack the value of the US dollar – already appreciated by 10% in 2015 – and whack American exports. They argue higher rates will inflate the cost of carrying all government and private debt, so central banks would never risk it. And nihilists claim official stats – on job creation or economic growth, for example – are bogus, fraudulent and fabricated as part of a wider conspiracy concocted by our overlords. Yes, the same criminals who fill our skies with chemtrails, our water with flouride and have just invented carbon taxes.

Well, we’ll know soon enough. This has been the longest stretch in history where interest rates have not been increased. Something previous generations never noticed much, let alone debated, has turned into a symbol of human struggle. Especially here. Few people on the planet have shoved their snouts deeper into the debt trough than Canadians, who have again shattered all records for snorfling. In 2015 we borrowed money at five times the rate of wage increases, and three times the rate of inflation. Never before have people retired with as much unpaid debt, or started their careers with such epic loans. On Friday I showed you the most recent CMHC tally of new insured mortgages – the average borrowing equals 92% of the value of the houses purchased. So if bloating rates or moribund oil cause real estate values to decline just 10%, all equity is poof.

That won’t crash house values. It won’t send the economy into recession. The banks will still make money. People will continue to believe electing spend-and-tax people like Rachel Notley and Justin Trudeau was clever. The shrinkage will be quiet and the denial loud. But the damage of higher rates and lower times will be real for people who bought what they could not afford and felt entitled doing it.

This pathetic blog has done its part in the debate. The wolf’s still at the door. It won’t hold.

Wonder how much Starkist and ammo a billion buys?

222 comments ↓

#1 Retired Boomer WI on 11.29.15 at 2:09 pm

Must be Domer and Dumber, my what a pair!!

#2 Lillooet, BC on 11.29.15 at 2:09 pm

Good day Mr GT!

#3 gladiator on 11.29.15 at 2:10 pm

A billionaire blog dog.
Cool.

I wonder if he hedged his currency exposure to the dolarette. I would expect a guy with enough brains to make a billion to do it.

#4 Ken Nash on 11.29.15 at 2:11 pm

Heard some new liberal minister kicking around “foreign investment review”. Was of the mind maybe they’re actually thinking about not raising rates in Canada. I’d like to see the common sense higher rates bring to markets. All those defined benefit, public sector pension funds based on annual 7% returns over 94 years. Plus HELOCs have really screwed up small business loans and the equipment leasing industry.

#5 Egg on 11.29.15 at 2:11 pm

How silly. Two grown men posturing over a probability. Why not debate the result of 4 coin flips instead and then decide who’s smarter?

#6 Sean on 11.29.15 at 2:13 pm

Interested in thoughts on bonds;

I remember in a recent post Garth appeared to advocate for 17% bonds and 18% preferred, and then another 5% cash to make up the 40% safe stuff.

My mix isn’t quite like that, but I do have 16% in bonds. However my 16% bond allocation is ENTIRELY in the Vanguard VAB ETF. I remember Garth arguing for a mix of government, corporate, high-yield, and inflation-protected bonds. VAB is a mix of bond types, which you can see at https://www.vanguardcanada.ca/individual/mvc/detail/etf/overview?portId=9552##portfoliodata but appears heavily weighted to the government side.

I also understand that as interest rates go up, bond values go down. Without trying to time the market, it seems to me that rates have more room to go up than down at present.

I am wondering whether there is a prudent change I can make to my allocation, assuming I want to stay at 16% bonds as a hedge against a market downturn, that would also give me some protection against interest rate increases. I’ve looked at VSB and VSC as possible options. Or does it make more sense to keep it all in VAB? Any thoughts appreciated… bonds are an area that I really don’t understand like I should.

#7 pathcontrolmonk on 11.29.15 at 2:16 pm

Is that Mark or Isai Scheinberg?

#8 Blobby on 11.29.15 at 2:18 pm

Was it Kevin ol easy?

#9 Soggy on 11.29.15 at 2:19 pm

Would your outlook on buying a house in Canada (not YVR/416) be different if we had american-style mortgages? When I explain to my southern friends that we don’t have 30y fixed with tax deductable interest they think we’re all nuts

#10 TurnerNation on 11.29.15 at 2:20 pm

Canada is so rich. ..

I counted 7 new Mercedes (from mid sized to AMG) parked in one downtown block. Toronto. Weekend crowd.

Luxury US retailers are coming. Saks 5th Avenue. Nordstrom.
Brooks Brothers is here.

Richer than we think!

#11 Kevin on 11.29.15 at 2:24 pm

Garth, why won’t raising rates eventually crash the housing market and send the economy into recession? I’ve read that 1/4 new jobs created in Toronto over the last 10 years has depended on the housing market. Wouldn’t a sharp decrease in the housing market then cause the broader economy to go bust, with something more similar to the US housing crash?

I’ve been following your blog since this summer, and I’ve noticed you are calling for a correction and not a crash. At this point it seems more and more likely there will be a correction. But why don’t you think there will be a broader crash?

#12 nubbers on 11.29.15 at 2:26 pm

I’m sure Garth won’t tell, but who is this masqued billionaire? Anyone?

#13 saskatoon on 11.29.15 at 2:26 pm

jobs data is a lagging indicator–and is most often booming just before a bust.

also: saying that the “market” is betting on a rate hike doesn’t mean crap.

the market has been wrong over and over again…and did nothing to predict 2008 meltdown, etc..

in other words, it may be helpful to get some new data talking points to push your rate hike agenda.

maybe you are right, garth…

but selecting more meaningful data to prove your point would be more convincing.

#14 souvereigninternational on 11.29.15 at 2:26 pm

G.T. – Then he vowed if America indeed raises rates in two weeks he’ll actually invest his money. “But it won’t happen.”

And they will, and he should invest his money in precious metals as the rate rise (which most like will not follow historically based predictions of continuity past US elections) will create the final leg down in metal prices.

We should not look at US debt or any other country for that matter as an obstacle as none of it is planned to be paid off. It is a confidence game and US and the dollar is going to be a winner until suddenly they are not and that moment is still far away.

Option 2 if he is a real person he could invest in my start up and become a trillioner in 5 years and not worry about his measly 1% in GIC’s.

Gold: $900-an-ounce loss in four years. Where else can you flush away 47% of your money so efficiently? — Garth

#15 johnk on 11.29.15 at 2:34 pm

Sounds like he knows a lot about tech but not much else. GICs, fer chrissake?

#16 young & foolish on 11.29.15 at 2:42 pm

Billionaire ??? Wow …. 1% of that is enough to make anybody on Bay street moist.

#17 souvereigninternational on 11.29.15 at 2:53 pm

Gold: $900-an-ounce loss in four years. Where else can you flush away 47% of your money so efficiently? — Garth

It is only a loss when you sell it. Reverse of the same you say about RE gains. Besides I prefer the wild ride of silver with bulk of my holdings acquired at 9-10$ I’m still “golden” as an ounce is still close to 21 C$ and hedges me against C$ “paper” loses. Gold and PM are an insurance against gov. and their economic/monetary policies. It is wise to at least consider exposure. Buy low Garth.

Owning the TSX through an ETF such as XIU gives all of the PM exposure anybody should have. Beyond that is an irrational gamble. — Garth

#18 Retired Boomer WI on 11.29.15 at 2:55 pm

Ah, the beauty of BALANCE.

OK, let us “assume” on Dec 16th interest rates rise by .25%. This is followed by a second increase of .25% a few months later.

Equities tend to move down a tad with higher rates temporarily. The more indebted the company is, and if there are bonds maturing, which they intend to rollover it will likely be at the new higher rate, which will cost the company more money out of earnings.

Bonds lose value, the longer the duration (length of time until maturity) the steeper the book value loss. If you are in a fund, or ETF that “loss” will be mitigated as the fund replaces older bonds maturing with ones paying the new higher interest rate. (yeah simple explanation)

So, I like to buy good companies with little debt, bonds of short duration (1-2 yrs), or medium duration (5-7 yrs).
At cheap rates which have no whereto go but rise, why bother with 10-30 yr bonds paying 2-3.5%)?

I hold stocks which pay better dividends, AND have the possibility of value gains.

So, while not a brain trust here, not a doomer either. We live in an area where people grow much of their own food.
I do not see that changing anytime.

I see a population that works, making things, mining stuff, or providing services others are willing to purchase.
I do see people looking to ‘buy less crap’ these days. When they buy, they want quality, craftsmanship, and value NOT just a “low price.” Maybe that explains why Wally Mart has been mediocre of late.

Americans, some are getting smarter, but we still have lots of idiocy to share.

BALANCE – Best idea Garth has yet shared. It seems to work for us, even if the world seems… rather unbalanced.

#19 Shawn on 11.29.15 at 2:57 pm

Are US equities overvalued? Fund flows show they are the most under owned equities in the world. Bonds and International Equity have taken in most of the $ for the past 5-10 years. Investors have been net sellers of US equities since 2007.

What do you think?

#20 Adrian on 11.29.15 at 3:05 pm

I very much hope that you are correct Garth.

#21 pinstripe on 11.29.15 at 3:08 pm

There is enough evidence to date indicating that QE was a total failure. The politicians will never admit to this failed experiment and at some point in the cycle moving forward interest rate increases will be the only option left. The pain will be brutal for many, a lot worse than the impact if QE was not initiated. QE was very successful in rewarding debt and punishing saving. The personal and government debt is mind boggling.

The money policy makers have passed their best before date and the choice now is either increase interest rate or go belly up. The policy makers forced the people to lose all trust and confidence in their policies.

Those with CASH will do OK and the bargains are starting to show.

#22 Jon on 11.29.15 at 3:13 pm

Engineers good at tech are not necessarily good at business, especially investing.

“The US Fed will end almost a decade of cheap money.” 25bps increase still gives us cheap money. The tightening cycle will be slow and seasonal until inflation picks up. Oil strengthening will help with that, but demographics and the strong USD work against.

#23 souvereigninternational on 11.29.15 at 3:14 pm

Gold: $900-an-ounce loss in four years. Where else can you flush away 47% of your money so efficiently? — Garth

By the way I bought my last/most expensive ounce of gold for 1300 C$ with bucks at parity. What is an ounce of Gold today =1427.29 C$.
If we count in US dollars the Real Estate in this Country has depreciated since looney dropped from roughly 1.03 to 0.74 and we are in real estate correction albeit invisible to Canadian eyes. May be somebody has a chart of that?It is all a matter of perspective and time. Or for the sake of quality arguments should we compare values to baskets of currencies/PMs /oil etc.

#24 Jim B on 11.29.15 at 3:15 pm

What are the numbers underlying the claim that “in 2015 [Canadians] borrowed money at five times the rate of wage increases, and three times the rate of inflation”? StatsCan shows average hourly wages increasing by 3.1% from October 2014 to October 2015, while inflation ticked up just 1.0% year-over-year (urls below). Of course, we (collectively) are borrowing way too much, but your math doesn’t appear to jibe with StatsCan’s stats. Are you talking about only YVR and 416 perhaps?

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/labr69a-eng.htm

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/151120/dq151120a-eng.htm

#25 Ralph Cramdown on 11.29.15 at 3:20 pm

“As also pointed out here, rates never rise once and halt. Or reverse.”

Sweden raised rates in 2011, only to have to drop them again as GDP growth went all the way to zero. As misery loves company, the ECB raised twice in 2011, only to follow with five cuts.

I’m inclined to believe that the risks of the US waiting too long to raise are less dangerous than the risks of raising too early, but I’m not a voting member.

It must be interesting to work in cash management at a bank with $1B in GICs outstanding to one customer and not knowing whether he’ll roll them or not. Or maybe he’s laddered it and you only have to worry about $500mm at a time…

Sweden? Seriously? The article was about the Fed. — Garth

#26 Mark on 11.29.15 at 3:22 pm

“Is that Mark “

Good one, lol. But definitely not.

Are US equities overvalued? Fund flows show they are the most under owned equities in the world.

This does not square with examples of single unprofitable tech companies being worth more than the public market capitalization of, for instance, all of Russia.

But I do agree with the premise that money is likely to do better in a US stock index fund than it is in a US bond fund going forward.

“Beyond that is an irrational gamble. — Garth”

Is having 40% of XIU in Canadian banks rational? At some level, one must be somewhat worried about excessive exposure to the financial sector (or quasi-financial sector firms such as GE, the US automakers/health insurers, etc.). Especially in a rising long-term interest rate environment which will likely damage the prospects of such firms.

At some point, severely out of favour assets must eventually come back into favour. And the argument to be made that the gold sector is extremely out of favour is very strong.

Would your outlook on buying a house in Canada (not YVR/416) be different if we had american-style mortgages?

Houses cannot sustainably sell at prices higher than their replacement cost, appropriately depreciated for the condition of the building. Most housing, even outside YVR/416, trades at prices significantly elevated relative to such. Therefore, the type of financing available makes little difference.

The impact of financing on RE prices in the long run is cyclical. Financing will boost RE prices when people are optimistic, but will actually suppress RE prices during the inevitable bust on account of prior over-stimulation of supply. Finance and leverage actually, over the long term, reduces RE affordability and decreases RE prices as fewer net dollars are available to chase RE (the bankers, etc. involved in RE finance siphon off a lot of wealth that could be chasing RE assets instead).

#27 Smoking Man on 11.29.15 at 3:27 pm

How ironic, the father, ring leader of climate hustle bites the dust few days before the Paris summit.

Now Al gore gets it all for himself..

http://www.unitypublishing.com/Government/Maurice%20Strong.htm

#28 kommykim on 11.29.15 at 3:31 pm

RE:So is the billionaire dude just another doomer loser?

I think he’s a doomer. I have doubts about his billions. Did he actually provide proof of his billionaire status, or is it just some guy bragging via email?

Only one billion. Valid. — Garth

#29 Mark on 11.29.15 at 3:31 pm

“If we count in US dollars the Real Estate in this Country has depreciated since looney dropped from roughly 1.03 to 0.74 and we are in real estate correction albeit invisible to Canadian eyes.”

Not really, as Canadian incomes, in USD$ terms, are deflating just as rapidly. A RE bubble is characterized by excessive multiples of prices to income. Not absolute prices quoted in a foreign currency that almost nobody uses to purchase Canadian housing.

If Canadian wage-earners and shareholders end up benefitting from the CAD$/USD$ devaluation (which probably will be temporary for various reasons, but leaving that aside…) — such will show in incomes. So far it has not.

#30 souvereigninternational on 11.29.15 at 3:32 pm

#9 Soggy on 11.29.15 at 2:19 pm

Would your outlook on buying a house in Canada (not YVR/416) be different if we had american-style mortgages? When I explain to my southern friends that we don’t have 30y fixed with tax deductable interest they think we’re all nuts

Yes we are.

In Canada most mortgaged are either adjustable (generally 5 years) or closed (penalty for switching/pay off). The two types are considered inferior/subprime in US. In Canada it would take interest rates above 10 % on an American style mortgage. It would only be 25 years max. and probably closed for the first six years (as all mortgages are open by law after that time). On the flip side try getting a variable (monthly) mortgage in USA and you will find they are not offered or offered at rates not competetive with the 15/30 y. open.

#31 souvereigninternational on 11.29.15 at 3:39 pm

@ #11 Kevin on 11.29.15 at 2:24 pm

Garth, why won’t raising rates eventually crash the housing market and send the economy into recession? I’ve read that 1/4 new jobs created in Toronto over the last 10 years has depended on the housing market. Wouldn’t a sharp decrease in the housing market then cause the broader economy to go bust, with something more similar to the US housing crash?

I’ve been following your blog since this summer, and I’ve noticed you are calling for a correction and not a crash. At this point it seems more and more likely there will be a correction. But why don’t you think there will be a broader crash?
——————————-

Correction in C$, Crash in US$ or dare I say gold….

#32 espressobob on 11.29.15 at 3:40 pm

A billionaire invested in GICs? Seriously?

Looks like this individual needs a financial advisor (fee based of course), or a heavy dose of electric shock therapy.

#33 kommykim on 11.29.15 at 3:41 pm

RE:

#6 Sean on 11.29.15 at 2:13 pm
I’ve looked at VSB and VSC as possible options.

VSB is what I use for my bond portion. If you believe Garth, go with a short duration bond fund like VSB. If you side with the doomers and think low rates are hear to stay, go with something like VAB.

#34 M on 11.29.15 at 3:42 pm

He also reads this blog. Posts anti-Garth comments. And he’s a doomer. The US is screwed, he says. Rates will never rise.

Garth.. the guy might NOT be ..anti-Garth.
He might think that rates will NOT be raised by the FED.
But by the bond market.

It so happen that I think that without being…anti-Garth

#35 souvereigninternational on 11.29.15 at 3:52 pm

Owning the TSX through an ETF such as XIU gives all of the PM exposure anybody should have. Beyond that is an irrational gamble. — Garth

My preference is towards physical allocation and small portion in quality junior mining (Juniors are like turbo on a car when it breaks you still drive in comfort – when it is on it is a huge boost). It is a gamble not to diversify into cheap and beaten sectors.

They are cheap and beaten for a reason. — Garth

#36 Sideshow Rob on 11.29.15 at 3:54 pm

“Sounds like he knows a lot about tech but not much else. GICs, fer chrissake?”

I’m guessing his billion buys better intel than your net worth does.

#37 Basil Fawlty on 11.29.15 at 3:57 pm

Interesting this “doomer label” in regards to interest rates . Ben Bernanke, thats right The Bernank, recently said that he did not anticpate a normalization of interest rates in his lifetime.
In regards to bogus employment stats, look no further than the labor participation rate, to understand that the 5% unemployment rate does not measure those no longer collecting unemployment benefits. These people are not part of the 5% U3 statistic, as they are statistically considered no longer looking for work.
Why consideration of what statistics really represent, garners the label “doomer”, is only known by certified pollyanas.

#38 Darryl on 11.29.15 at 4:09 pm

Garth, we know that many of the 270K job a low paying positions/retail… doesn’t this happen every year right before Christmas? If so, it’s a poor indicator.

I think Yellen is going to wait until January. 30 more days won’t matter much. It’s either too risky as Santa has already started loading his sleigh.. or it’s pure genius because maybe everyone will be too drunk on eggnog to notice.

#39 Frank on 11.29.15 at 4:20 pm

Mr. Doomer is kinda right. Not his long term view but he’s right about your prediction accuracy.

While you point out the risks of debt consumption and offer sound advice for mitigating that risk your ability to predict the future is terrible. A monkey throwing darts would probably have a bad track record. You can only call peak house so many times before, even when you’re right, you don’t get to say ‘I told you so’.

#40 TurnerNation on 11.29.15 at 4:23 pm

Well well boys lookie what we got here today. A
1%er on this blog. Mr Techie. You know what we do to those types (I’m gonna enjoy this) don’t you?
.
.
.
.
….we give them a hearty welcome!

#41 David on 11.29.15 at 4:26 pm

One needn’t be a doomer or a nihilist to recognize that there is also the argument that rates are low and will remain so because the natural or normal rate is in fact close to current rates.

#42 Johhny on 11.29.15 at 4:29 pm

DELETED

#43 espressobob on 11.29.15 at 4:29 pm

The goldbugs never quit! Unfortunately they don’t get it. Gold is not legal tender, just another commodity best owned in a index fund, in the form of miners (more upside, someday). Think global, better play.

https://www.vanguardcanada.ca/individual/mvc/detail/etf/overview?portId=9561&assetCode=EQUITY##portfoliodata

#44 TurnerNation on 11.29.15 at 4:31 pm

I bought a Black and Decker (a USA brand) item 50% off. Box says it’s made in China and imported via Mexico. I bet B&D run their taxes via offshore corp. too.
Like I said we are a 2nd World consuming zone now.

#45 Freedom First on 11.29.15 at 4:47 pm

People are funny. When interest rates were rising to 20% people borrowed like crazy to buy overpriced RE, yet you could put money in a GIC and earn 15% for five year terms, and in an RRSP, of course. Then interest rates reversed, and prices of RE plummeted 40-60%. Majority, as per usual, screwed.

Fast forward to today. Many countries citizens have already been financially hobbled, but their is countries where the job has not been finished, yet. Now that Canada, Australia, etc. whose citizens have snorfled extreme debt at history breaking low interest rates, which are only a lure, to such an extent there is few left to pidgeonhole into massive debt, the time is right to increase the interest rates. In case someone has not figured it out, you are a sheep to be fleeced by the wolves, who are much much smarter than you are. Now, the consumers have been using logic, just not the same logic as the wolves.

There is good reason the well off/wealthy/rich/ are the minority. Myself, I’m not that bright, so I decided decades ago to not think/make assumptions out of my own head, but to use sound financial Principles which have always stood the test of time. To those that argue with Garth about being liquid, balanced and diversified, and extremely leery of debt, you are either a vulture or operating out of your mind.

#46 Brian Ripley on 11.29.15 at 4:50 pm

“The goal is to bring the cost of money into a historically normal range, so cheap loans and excessive liquidity stop distorting things like real estate and equity prices.” Garth

Yes I agree that cheap money has distorted asset prices as evidenced by the negative yields that those assets provide.

But there is one other factor other than numbers on a spreadsheet… ie: people.

I looked at my 6 city chart where I also plot the total projected annual national MLS residential sales:

http://www.chpc.biz/6-canadian-metros.html

… the number of sales are projected to be roughly 500,000 to the end of the year. The current census has our national population at ball park 35,000,000 … so 1.4% of our population decided to buy real estate this year. The peak was in 2008 when there was less than 525,000 (1.5% of census) sales.

Since the March 2009 Pit of Gloom and the start of ZIRP, there have been +/- 3,255,700 residential sales across Canada or 9.3% of census.

So +/- 90% of us did not buy negative yielding real estate in nearly 7 years.

We are either hunkered down in our existing hovels or renting and on the fence.

But of course the bank of mom and pop has been busy backing up borrowers and a lot of us are consuming quickly depreciating stuff like cars, computers and lifestyle choices to the degree that “Never before have people retired with as much unpaid debt, or started their careers with such epic loans.(Garth)”

This shows up dramatically on my household debt chart (plotted against GDP, Net Trade, & Foreign Direct Investment):

http://www.chpc.biz/household-debt.html

It may not even matter if the Bank of Canada does not raise rates this year or next (hello Japanada).

A reversal of fortune in the pricing of real estate may happen due to exhaustion on the part of that small +/- 1.4% per year of census who simply do not show up to buy when the market is looking for and needs buyers to take on the negative yields of sellers.

#47 rabbit's foot on 11.29.15 at 4:51 pm

Across the nation there are legions of basement dwellers clutching their lucky rabbit’s feet and praying for a rate increase of .25 percent, as though it will turn the tide and permit them to dwell in the light. It won’t my musty friends. That ship sailed long ago and you weren’t on it.

Best to hang onto your savings and enjoy the peace of solvency and mobility. A quarter point rate increase isn’t going to drive many people under nor will it swell your GIC. Much ado about nothing me thinks.

#48 Johhny on 11.29.15 at 5:04 pm

#32 espressobob
USA fighter jet pilots carry GOLD COINS in case they are shot down. That is what is recognized as value throughout the world. We are not ‘gold bugs’ we are realists who don’t have our head buried in the ground and can see that the investment environment is all fraudulent. When the dust settles one investment class will remain- physical gold in your possession. You are conspiracy theorist or insane for thinking that adding more debt to unplayable debt can end anywhere but disaster.

When the dust settles you need food and toilet paper. Good luck substituting pieces of metal. Ouch. — Garth

#49 bigtowne on 11.29.15 at 5:05 pm

DollarTree pricing all inventory at $1.25 or less could be the next Dollarama. I sent my personal shopper to pick up shoe horns and fanny packs but did not specify DollarTree and he came back with all the wrong stuff at twice the price.

Canada cannot do retail.

It is a fact that the whole economy has been transformed by computer technology and with that huge benefit the downside is major job loss. In the 20th century Canada had one million receptionists and one million auto plant workers but now in the 21st century we are down to 100,000 of each. So labour requirements have gone down dramatically and in the same 25 years IMMIGRATION has increased.

During Pierre Trudeau’s years Canada admitted 50,000 immigrants per year prior to the big technological advance of internet. Now we are bringing in over 250,000 per year when the economy does not require it. We have to decide what we want…do we want an innovative culture with high incomes or do we want a low income economy with a big head count?

#50 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 11.29.15 at 5:17 pm

“– the best showing all year, dashing arguments the American economy had slipped into neutral, or worse.”

This is non-sense for two reasons. The first is that employment is a lagging indicator and will never tell us what is happening now or will happen in the future. More importantly, economists are notoriously bad at predicting recessions (include the FED).

Never say never. QE also never happened until it did. The reality is that the FED has already embarked on its tightening path since Q/E was terminated. Of course, Chna and various wealth funds have switched from buyer to seller, so tightening forces are already at play. 12 bps or even a quarter is meaningless.

“Gold: $900-an-ounce loss in four years. Where else can you flush away 47% of your money so efficiently? — Gart”

Pick a different start time. Gold is up 400% since 2001, but the US indices have barely moved. Of course, in the S&P and Nasdaq did not take 4 years to cut in half from their tops, so I would say those are more efficient.

The same central banks that you seem to admire are anti-capitalistic and moreover the largest buyers and holders of gold on the planet.

Nevertheless, the investment banks have been jamming preferred share and REIT issues to retired folks who were pressured buyers to to radical central bank policies. Those people are down 25%.

#51 takla on 11.29.15 at 5:20 pm

last time the Fed positioned to move up rates the dow began to tank before hand ,will it happen again??
next couple weeks will be interesting watching the markets

#52 Down and out on 11.29.15 at 5:31 pm

#33 Freedom First ,I too lived through the 20% rate , people spent furiously has rates climbed from 9% thinking they will never see cheap rates again ,then the economy went bust .I am wondering if Yellen does move consistently inching up history will repeat itself .Those that have been waiting on the sidelines jump into car and home loans setting off a fury in economic activity forcing the fed to move even faster in rate hikes and the cycle repeats .I am just amazed the fed thinks it can control the rate of growth .If we learned anything at all from the recent past starting in 2008 it is the fed seems to be reactive not proactive,as this blog states the US economy is moving ahead and the fed is late to the gate again.

#53 Drill Baby Drill on 11.29.15 at 5:32 pm

The sign should read “For Sale only used once”

#54 Harbour on 11.29.15 at 5:40 pm

#35 rabbit’s foot

Across the nation there are legions of debt dwellers carrying maxed out mortgages, taxes, utilities, upkeep, etc… wondering if the pile of debt dung they jumped into and smothered themselves in will make them any money.

#55 Johhny on 11.29.15 at 5:45 pm

Then why don’t fighter pilots carry- ‘food and toilet paper’
?? Funny stuff. :)

They do. BTW, give us a credible link on the gold coin-toting top guns. — Garth

#56 mark on 11.29.15 at 5:53 pm

“It is only a loss when you sell it.”

LOL what a clown. I can’t believe people still use that line.

#57 BG on 11.29.15 at 6:04 pm

#22 Jon on 11.29.15 at 3:13 pm
Engineers good at tech are not necessarily good at business, especially investing.
———————————————————–

Who cares? I’d be an expert at licking rocks if it earned me a billion.

0.5% annually on a billion is 5 millions.
I honestly don’t even know why the guy is reading this blog instead of burning piles of cash in the street for fun.

#58 kommykim on 11.29.15 at 6:09 pm

List of recent posts by our resident Billionaire Blog Dog “Doomer Gloomer”:

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/11/06/au-revoir/#comment-408734

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/10/07/get-a-grip-2/#comment-402187

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/09/17/the-head-fake/#comment-397545

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/06/12/seriously-5/#comment-378325

#59 Retired Boomer WI on 11.29.15 at 6:10 pm

#33 Freedom First
#52 Down and Out

FREEDOM First:

Agree completely on the things that worked in the past, they still do. Any time somebody says “it’s a new paradigm” I think, “They’ll end up with a new pair of dimes.” Yup, seen this movie, you too…

Down & Out:

The FED is a lagging indicator. They are never ‘out front’ except maybe, by accident. What they normally try to do, is keep the economy from heating up too much, too fast.
Can’t say we have been growing ‘too fast’ for a dam long time.

I do want to see a return to ‘normalcy’ as soon as practicable. Can’t say what that timeline is, but it has to begin -soon. I longer we play extend, and pretend the longer we delay the inevitable flushing out of the dead, but still walking in the economy. Do I want to see a recession? No, but IF one should result as a result of tightening rates .25 so be it. It would have been here without it. .25 is a dam rounding error in and of itself.

After we raise rates say, by 2% we can talk again.

#60 espressobob on 11.29.15 at 6:11 pm

Richard Nixon axed the “gold standard” way back in 1971.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_money

Get it?

#61 kommykim on 11.29.15 at 6:16 pm

RE:

#55 Johhny on 11.29.15 at 5:45 pm
Then why don’t fighter pilots carry- ‘food and toilet paper’
?? Funny stuff. :)

Ever had to pee while in a helicopter? There is essentially a funnel with a hose that you pull out of the dash to do your #1 business in.

I think were hurtling at Mach 3 in the wrong direction. — Garth

#62 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.29.15 at 6:18 pm

Smoking Man is a billionaire?

#63 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.29.15 at 6:21 pm

@#55 Johhny
“food and toilet paper”

Well, after ejecting at mach 1.5…. I’d say the term “wet wipe” is a valid replacement for rolls of TP…………

#64 JB on 11.29.15 at 6:22 pm

Hmm interesting. There are fewer than a 100 billionaires in Canada. And according them Kevin O’Leary isn’t one of them (he just plays one on TV).

#65 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 11.29.15 at 6:26 pm

#56 mark on 11.29.15 at 5:53 pm
“It is only a loss when you sell it.”

LOL what a clown. I can’t believe people still use that line.

Some geniuses say it is only a profit when you sell it – like Real Estate.

#66 Bram on 11.29.15 at 6:27 pm

Garth, commenting on #14:
>Gold: $900-an-ounce loss in four years. Where else can >you flush away 47% of your money so efficiently? — Garth

Options market!
Typically half of all contracts or so, tend to go to $0,- at expiration date! Unless you gambled correctly of course, in which case: Katching!

#67 common sense on 11.29.15 at 6:30 pm

Please remember everyone that the US ECONOMY IS BOOMING…thus they just HAVE to raise rates…

History, current market conditions, world trade, commodity prices, etc have NOTHING to do with it…

Also 100% accurate job numbers tell it all and will be fully confirmed this week….

Janet call HOUSTON.. we have LIFTOFF!!!!!

#68 common sense on 11.29.15 at 6:35 pm

A shoe shine boy just gave me odds on a rate increase.

Does this mean anything? Can anyone help me out here?

#69 Smoking Man on 11.29.15 at 6:37 pm

War on the middle class a carefully thought out enterprise. The real enemy.

Climate Change Warriors.. Communists

http://www.forbes.com/sites/larrybell/2013/01/22/the-u-n-s-global-warming-war-on-capitalism-an-important-history-lesson-2/

#70 momo on 11.29.15 at 6:38 pm

Here’s the list of 100 richest Canadians in 2015; there are only about 15-25 individuals with 1-1.3 billion net worth:

http://www.canadianbusiness.com/lists-and-rankings/richest-people/top-100-richest-canadians-2015/

You believe that list? — Garth

#71 Interstellar Old Yeller on 11.29.15 at 6:40 pm

Anyone else think “Billionaire Doomer Loser” makes for a good blog dog nickname?

#25 Ralph Cramdown on 11.29.15 at 3:20 pm

Wouldn’t the bank have some very nice employee work full-time dreaming up ever better ways to kiss our billionaire’s feet? (What’s the spread between – GIC and the bank’s lending rate? Maybe it’s a full team of nice employees.)

#72 Squirrel meat on 11.29.15 at 6:40 pm

Massive cat fight amongst the baboons at Toronto Zoo seeking the new Queen bee throne…. nasty stuff!

http://www.calgaryherald.com/technology/game+baboons+violent+dominance+breaks+toronto+after+alpha/11552697/story.html

#73 Bram on 11.29.15 at 6:42 pm

#40 TurnerNation
“A 1%er on this blog.”

Nope, there are many one-percenters on this blog, as a mere $191K suffices.

More like a 0.001 percenter: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/who-are-canada-s-top-1-1.1703321

#74 Winterpeg on 11.29.15 at 6:47 pm

Just skimmed the blog today. Off to Grey Cup. (Party not the game. Not rich enough or hearty enough) Although it is pleasant here by Winnipeg standards. Only -1. Lucked out with El nino this year.
Will catch up later.

#75 Mean Gene on 11.29.15 at 6:48 pm

Why would a mega rich person waste their time reading stuff on the Internet? Personally, if I had that kind of loot, I would be flying my private jet or engaged in interesting ways to burn up time.

Buying and operating a private jet is a good way not to have a billion any more. — Garth

#76 JB on 11.29.15 at 6:48 pm

Garth, you need to “out” this guy. If we are to believe Canadian Business Magazine’s “rich 100 list”, it shouldn’t be too tough to figure it out. Only so many of them made the fortunes in tech!

To be fair though I could probably live off of the GIC interest from a billion dollars…..but then again I am frugal!

Why does your curiosity trump his privacy? — Garth

#77 common sense on 11.29.15 at 6:50 pm

#62 Crowdedelevatorfartz

I think your on the somthing about Smoking Man being the Billionaire…

Lives an alternative life as a IT Specialist, types a secret coded language only the true 1% can understand, Though married, lives the lifestyle of the rich and famous attending Seneca casino often to mingle with the little ones and likely has a mistress in Ms. Valentine. Has inside information with world leaders, makes too many market calls and likely friends with long dead writers…

Bet it’s him.

#78 Squirrel meat on 11.29.15 at 6:53 pm

#75 Mean Gene on 11.29.15 at 6:48 pm

Why would a mega rich person waste their time reading stuff on the Internet? Personally, if I had that kind of loot, I would be flying my private jet or engaged in interesting ways to burn up time.

Buying and operating a private jet is a good way not to have a billion any more. — Garth
—-
Well wouldn’t that be the whole point of having it… I mean yer not gonna just sit there looking at.. what a colossal waste that would be!

Burn it baby.

#79 Freedom First on 11.29.15 at 6:56 pm

Further to my last Post. When times are good and people are leveraging RE to their nutz, they have ignored rising interest rates and rising prices in the past as well as the low interest rates/rising prices in recent history, when times were good, but at both times they used the same lack of financial prudence in gobbling up RE at inflated prices. Bot high interest rates or unemployment can make you look like a turkey, gobble gobble. And, rising interest rates and unemployment can both happen at the same time. It simply does not matter if you like it or not. That is exactly why you always read afterwards that nobody saw it coming. Which is not true. It is just that the majority can not comprehend the unexpected ever happening. Smart people plan for the unexpected. And they always do well. As always.

#80 JB on 11.29.15 at 6:58 pm

Why does your curiosity trump his privacy? — Garth

It doesn’t. I am just nosey, as I’m sure a lot of other blog dogs are. Especially, considering he apparently posts here, and leaves negatives comments.

I just find it amazing that someone with that much capital would park it in a GIC. I guess everybody has their strengths. Selling a company for a truck load of money is impressive. His investing prowess is not. In my humble opinion, based on your post.

#81 souvereigninternational on 11.29.15 at 7:04 pm

“It is only a loss when you sell it.”

LOL what a clown. I can’t believe people still use that line.
——————-
Clown that you are. You definitely should not dis people who share a lot of your views. Save that for Ralph Cramdowns, Shawn and Elevator Farts etc. My point was simple if the statement is true one way with balooning RE it is same the other way for commodities going down.
————————-
@ #29 Mark on 11.29.15 at 3:31 pm

“If we count in US dollars the Real Estate in this Country has depreciated since looney dropped from roughly 1.03 to 0.74 and we are in real estate correction albeit invisible to Canadian eyes.”

Not really, as Canadian incomes, in USD$ terms, are deflating just as rapidly. A RE bubble is characterized by excessive multiples of prices to income. Not absolute prices quoted in a foreign currency that almost nobody uses to purchase Canadian housing.

If Canadian wage-earners and shareholders end up benefitting from the CAD$/USD$ devaluation (which probably will be temporary for various reasons, but leaving that aside…) — such will show in incomes. So far it has
——————————
not really? You got me confused Homey. I thought you said the decline has started like 2-3 years ago. I’m simply trying to view things from international (US$ based) perspective vs. local. Yes, it is still a long way down.

#82 Washed Up Lawyer on 11.29.15 at 7:06 pm

Buy ammo????

What self respecting billionaire would do that? Make your own, you sissy. Save oodles of bucks and invest the savings.

I spent thousands of hours on my own home cooking, improved the quality of the loads and was able to argue at length around the campfires on the improved ballistic performance I was achieving over the store bought stuff.

It is not rocket surgery. What ever happened to self reliance in this once great country?

#83 Mark on 11.29.15 at 7:28 pm

“not really? You got me confused Homey. I thought you said the decline has started like 2-3 years ago. I’m simply trying to view things from international (US$ based) perspective vs. local. Yes, it is still a long way down.”

It did. In CAD$. No funny rationalizations involving foreign currencies needed to explain what’s been happening in the Canadian RE market.

So far everything seems to be proceeding very similar to what was seen in the US, with a roughly 2 year interlude between the peak of the market (USA = 2006, Canada = 2013), and the panic (USA = 2008, Canada = 2015/2016).

Significant changes to the sales mix also featured prominently in the 2006-2008 era, with many US Realtors of the time swearing up and down that prices were still going up. Efforts at pumping were extreme, with folks like the NAR’s David Lereah even coming out with an updated version of his notorious book exclaiming that the bubble would not burst, and that “all real estate is local”.

The peaks of both the Canadian and the US markets were characterized by a peak in subprime lending. When the subprime lenders pulled back, there was only one way for housing prices to go.

#84 Chancouver on 11.29.15 at 7:44 pm

Rate rises won’t be meaningful until we get closer to the historic average. Most people can handle a few hundred more in mortgage payments. Stop making such a big deal of a one percent rise. It is meaningless.

#85 BC Guy on 11.29.15 at 7:46 pm

The biggest debtors are the Canadian federal government and the provincial governments with Ontario leading the pack ($294 billion and counting):

http://www.debtclock.ca/provincial-debtclocks/ontario/ontario-s-debt/

Harper couldn’t and the Boy Wonder won’t balance the books.

So, I argue that the Bank Of Canada will not raise rates more than a couple of millipercents because it would increase borrowing costs for all levels of governments, forcing them to go even deeper into debt or cut their budgets drastically. Not gonna happen. The Fed can do all they want, but the Boy Wonder will let the Canadian peso devalue even more than allow the BOC to raise rates significantly.

#86 RayofLight on 11.29.15 at 7:53 pm

In a “Global Financial Literacy” survey performed by Standards & Poor, Canada didn’t come that badly. They found 68% of Canadians were financially literate and as a country we came in 6th, behind mostly the Nordic Countries. If this isn’t a cause for a pause for thought, what would be?

https://www.mhfi.com/corporate-responsibility/global-financial-literacy-survey

#87 Climate Change Talke on 11.29.15 at 7:57 pm

If the Politicians are aiming to limit Global warming by 2C by 2100, a goal they seem deeply passionate about and possibly able to be forecasted by their superior models, What do they forecast the world population be by that point, and how will they make sure it is that approximate number?

#88 Tony on 11.29.15 at 8:00 pm

I for one do not believe anything coming out of America. I even look for an angle for the 271,000 jobs report. I figure to make the economy “look good” for Black Friday sales and possibly Christmas sales depending on the November jobs number. I do believe the Baltic Dry Index and the price of uranium as they can’t be manipulated. I believe the story they tell. If the jobs number for November comes in above 200,000 then I see two rate increases followed by three rate decreases in the next year or so. In 2017 I see negative interest rates for America.

#89 not 1st on 11.29.15 at 8:04 pm

My money is on the billionaire.

#90 Sharon Gates on 11.29.15 at 8:05 pm

DELETED

#91 gunny boy on 11.29.15 at 8:07 pm

Was it the owner of sellmycar.ca! don’t remember his name though.

#92 Smoking Man on 11.29.15 at 8:09 pm

#77 common sense on 11.29.15 at 6:50 pm
#62 Crowdedelevatorfartz

I think your on the somthing about Smoking Man being the Billionaire…

Lives an alternative life as a IT Specialist, types a secret coded language only the true 1% can understand, Though married, lives the lifestyle of the rich and famous attending Seneca casino often to mingle with the little ones and likely has a mistress in Ms. Valentine. Has inside information with world leaders, makes too many market calls and likely friends with long dead writers…

Bet it’s him
…..

I would never oun a GIC so that rules me out..

#93 Jason on 11.29.15 at 8:11 pm

Garth,

I think you should more carefully consider the possibilities that (1) the FED will not increase rates and (2) the FED will increase rates, and then decrease them.

You are a smart guy, but you aren’t that smart. Jeffrey Gundlach (Doubline), one of the smartest bond investors of all time specifically thinks (2) is a possibility. You should also read Hoissington’s research.
http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/pdf/HIM2015Q2np.pdf

The bond markets say rates are rising in December and that seems to be the basis of your view. But you have no educated view on what happens after that. It`s just too complicated.

I said the Fed will not stop or drop after it initially hikes, or the increase will not come. It knows more than your dude. — Garth

#94 Alberta wing-nuts on 11.29.15 at 8:20 pm

Not till we see the white of its eyes,, “INFLATION” ,, and only after it lingers for a moment hopefully gripping so as to not disappear for the next period of say at least a few years….

#95 not 1st on 11.29.15 at 8:24 pm

Gold: $900-an-ounce loss in four years. Where else can you flush away 47% of your money so efficiently? — Garth

—-

Well how about the TSX which hasnt increased at all in 10yrs. At least the PM doomers get a nice gold grill in their mouth.

Investing in one asset class only is lame, be it PMs or the TSX. Have you learned nothing here? — Garth

#96 greyhound on 11.29.15 at 8:39 pm

“As also pointed out here, rates never rise once and halt. Or reverse.”
Words like always and never are very brave in the current environment.

#97 Big Dipper on 11.29.15 at 8:39 pm

Doomers, November 29th, 2015

“He called one day and I asked him where his billion is. “In GICs,” he said. Very progressive, I replied. Hope you like paying a load of tax on interest you haven’t received. Then he vowed if America indeed raises rates in two weeks he’ll actually invest his money. “But it won’t happen.””

–———————————————————

Assuming the one billion is not hyperbole, I would invest very similar to unnamed buddy (who I’ve seen commenting on this blog).

Think about it. With one billion ($1,000,000,000), three+ generations can live royally of the principle alone – never mind capital gains or income! After that – who cares? Why put you money at risk in equities? Capital preservation is paramount. Never mind buying shares in XYC company. Buy the damn company, shopping center, or whatever outright. But only if you are willing, and able to spend an inordinate amount of time and effort on the enterprise.

I would ladder the GIC’s over 5 years (annual pay) and negotiate rates. Spread them out over numerous accounts and all CDIC insured institutions imaginable. If any institution fails the sheeple will bail you out. Over time that will return about 2%/a at today’s rates. That’s $20 million a year! Aw shucks honey, peanut butter and dog food again.

Taxes may be an issue, but not so much after you hire the best tax accountants available to deal with it. Tax deductible schemes galore.

#98 JimH on 11.29.15 at 8:45 pm

#26 Mark
“At some point, severely out of favour assets must eventually come back into favour. And the argument to be made that the gold sector is extremely out of favour is very strong.”
==================================
Now, Mark, let me get this straight; Price is set by a consensus evaluation of worth. The consensus price is low because the asset is “out of favor”. Therefore, the consensus price must eventually (?) go up.

The PM sector is exceptionally weak right now and will continue to be so.

PM’s always… always are poor… yes, poor performers when interest rates are low.

Having been in this game for some 25 years as an investor, trader and speculator, Mark, I have been successful due to one principle and one principle only.

There is no such thing as being right or wrong on a trade. There is no black and white side of any trade. There is only the relationship of probability of reward versus risk. That is what risk management in trading is all about.

It’s obvious that you know nothing at all about trading, and are totally obsessed with the notion of you being “right”. In the meantime, others with more sense would rather be rich than right.

Precious Metals, in all their forms do poorly when interest rates are low, Mark. That is a fact. They are not “out of favor” because they haven’t had a bath in months. They are “out of favor” because the market sees what you fail to discern; there are much better places to invest your cash at the moment.

When overnight rates are below 3%, even bonds have a tendency to outperform precious metals, and in fact they have been doing so.

Even with a fairly aggressive set of .25% increases, it will take some time for the overnight rate to approach 3%.

“At some point… badly broken assets must eventually come back into favor”? In the meantime, Mark, I suggest the smart money will go elsewhere, just like it has been doing. The Russell2000 (IWM), Tech (RYT), Healthcare (RYH), US Reits (SCHH) and Preferred baskets such as (PGX PFF) are doing just fine.

Buying into an asset class with high hopes that “out of favour assets must eventually come back into favour” is a strategy based purely on hope.

Most rookie traders learn with their first year in the trenches that “Hope” is a really crappy investment strategy. The fact that you haven’t yet learned this costly lesson tells me that you have never spent a day trading and are totally unqualified to offer investment advice.

#99 Freedom First on 11.29.15 at 8:58 pm

68% of Canadians are financially literate, ay, Ray. Any idea how many of those 68% literates do what they know is right instead of doing what they want want want? Which, of course, would relate to reality. Garth has been showing us the real numbers of Canadian debt snorflers every step of the way.

#100 Daisy Mae on 11.29.15 at 9:04 pm

#32: “A billionaire invested in GICs? Seriously?
Looks like this individual needs a financial advisor (fee based of course), or a heavy dose of electric shock therapy.”

*******************

It IS unbelievable, isn’t it? LOL

#101 fancy_pants on 11.29.15 at 9:07 pm

I’ll entertain the idea once again that they will increase rates south of the border and we will follow. One last time down that road and if it is another balk, it’s time to stop with that talk and rethink your economic outlook looking forward and no longer back. a new normal quietly entered stage left. we may never go back.

#102 bsfinder on 11.29.15 at 9:13 pm

There are no Canadian billionaires from technology. Nice bs though.

I had one sitting in my office. — Garth

#103 TurnerNation on 11.29.15 at 9:15 pm

Today’s billionaire might be one Blithe Barrington? Sends his personal shopper to Dollarama.

#104 Coquitlammom on 11.29.15 at 9:20 pm

Dropped in on an open house today. Priced at $899,900. Average home nothing special. Spoke with the realtor about our situation. Sold last may and now renting. She said you should get into the market as quick as possible. I told her I disagree. She anticipates a 10-15% increase in 2016. I told her no I don’t agree. She looked so pissed. Time will only tell but I’m not rushing anything during this uncertain time.

#105 Mark on 11.29.15 at 9:21 pm

“PM’s always… always are poor… yes, poor performers when interest rates are low. ”

That contradicts the experience of the 1930s where PM’s and PM-related assets dramatically outperformed. The precious metals are best thought of as a ‘monetary instability’ hedges (instability being significant inflation or significant deflation) rather than being good performers during periods of monetary stability (ie: inflation ~=2%) which they clearly aren’t.

“Having been in this game for some 25 years as an investor, trader and speculator, Mark, I have been successful due to one principle and one principle only. ”

I don’t doubt your success. However, the past 25 years taught you that one of the most successful trades will have been simply to buy long-term, long-duration bond funds and hold for returns that significantly exceed that available in most other asset classes. Mathematically, in a flat or rising interest rate environment, this is a highly problematic proposition. Further rate decreases inevitably run into the zero bound, whereby the banking system will be gradually drained of cash, rather than chasing long-term bonds into increasingly negative yields. IOW, the era of excess long-term bond returns, as seen for the past 25-35 years, is over.

“Buying into an asset class with high hopes that “out of favour assets must eventually come back into favour” is a strategy based purely on hope.

At some level, its based on fundamentals occurring in the contemporary economy, ie: deflation reducing production costs in mining, and increasing the desire for precious metals as hedges against defaults. But on another level, its a pure contrarian strategy to own a modest allocation to the precious metals sector. The precious metals are so hated at this point almost universally that even relatively slight moves towards reversion to long-term percentages of global portfolio allocations can produce dramatic returns.

“Most rookie traders learn with their first year in the trenches that “Hope” is a really crappy investment strategy.”

There are fundamental reasons why someone might want to consider a modest allocation to the sector with the speculative portion of their investment capital. I agree with Garth’s statement that XIU’s exposure to the sector is plenty for most Canadians.

Trust me, its been a lot of pain if I look at how much my investments in XIU have lost in the precious metals sector over the past year (and Valeant). But I’m balanced so even if I am wrong in the short term, I still have lots of skin in the game. The horror stories you hear usually surround new investors loading up their portfolios with juniors, and using margin. Instead of balance.

#106 For Hire on 11.29.15 at 9:29 pm

Ex colleague sells (well was) vehicles in Deadmonton.
“November was worst month at dealer in 30 years.
tip of the iceberg?

#107 TRT on 11.29.15 at 9:37 pm

Billionaires can afford to tell the truth.

BoC cannot raise rates in Canada. Doing so would crash its economy, which is based predominantly on the residential real estate sector.

BoC is betting that rates (they do risk assessments) won’t rise much in the USA –>Maybe a full point and then that’s it. Loonie will suffer some collateral damage but so what; big money is already short the CDN dollar.

What is the most UNLIKELY BoC scenario? They eventually follow the FED and in turn crash housing (aka Canadian economy).

This is suicide by the highest order. Housing is too big too fail now.

#108 Smoking Man on 11.29.15 at 9:43 pm

#103 TurnerNation on 11.29.15 at 9:15 pm
Today’s billionaire might be one Blithe Barrington? Sends his personal shopper to Dollarama.
…..

Ha, Barrington is a university professor, no hope in hell for him to ever evolove to be a billionaire. he’s dumb.

Now Ashman has a shot, he’s paranoid, impulseve. His father Isaac runs the council back on Nectonite..

Friends in high places…

#109 TRT on 11.29.15 at 9:44 pm

Here’s another bit of mathematical truth:

Metro Vancouver’s Real estate market is only supported by foreign money inflows. Mathematically, the stats do not support a market driven by locals and high LTV ratios.

The powers that be have these stats as well. If you look at the books of CMHC, Canada Guar., Genworth, you will find that only the private insurers are growing their business. That amount pales in comparison to new |household formation|new home sales|absolute total RE value in Canada| data.

In other words, there is a mismatch. New money must flow into the closed system that is Metro Vancouver RE for the stats to make sense.

Denying this only means that Math is wrong. Is the Earth flat?

#110 Leo Trollstoy on 11.29.15 at 9:47 pm

Billionaire vs Wall Street consensus

Dec. 16

http://m.imgur.com/gallery/c27X4

#111 Rural Rick on 11.29.15 at 9:49 pm

Just guessing a billion would get a pretty solid return in a GIC from somebody. And hey, you still got the billion. More money than you could possible need. Oh to have this problem.
Money can’t buy happiness but you sure can rent it for a while.

#112 TRT on 11.29.15 at 9:53 pm

First of refugees from Syria soon to arrive!

That’s to be commended. Hopefully this program can be spread out to be a 12 months/year program.

Canada needs these people due to our demographic crunch coming up. Need many more people of working age population to support the wrinkles of the future.

The Math says we need it. Only negative is it lowers wages and increases rental prices. And will put pressure on house prices eventually.

#113 Bill ion on 11.29.15 at 9:57 pm

Hundreds of billionaires in BC. Fact

#114 Tony from Calagary on 11.29.15 at 10:04 pm

“Doomers say rates can’t rise, however…”

Wait… what about all of us Doomers who absolutely believe rates are going to rise and think doomsday is approaching as a result?

There’s a lot of borrowed money denominated in US Dollars sloshing around the world. Once the Fed starts raising rates, foreigners will start to feel the pain as cheap/easy credit is curtailed the mad dash for cash begins.

It also doesn’t bode too will for the US if they are expecting the rest of the world to buy anything from them as their dollar skyrockets in value as China continues to slow, the Eurozone breaks apart and war continues to rage in the Middle East (capital flees to safe havens, dontcha know?).

But I’m sure someone (Garth) will say I’m a Doomer either way and to calm down – everything will work out as long as I keep a balanced portfolio…

#115 Leo Trollstoy on 11.29.15 at 10:08 pm

Mark drinks his own brand of Kool Aid.

#116 Sheane Wallace on 11.29.15 at 10:13 pm

Gold: $900-an-ounce loss in four years. Where else can you flush away 47% of your money so efficiently? — Garth

EWZ
BBL.
….

#117 Sheane Wallace on 11.29.15 at 10:15 pm

#114 Tony from Calagary

Yep, Emerging Markets will tank and China will buy them for pennies on the dollar.

#118 Sheane Wallace on 11.29.15 at 10:16 pm

Gold: $900-an-ounce loss in four years. Where else can you flush away 47% of your money so efficiently? — Garth

silver is actually down 70 % from the top

#119 Mark on 11.29.15 at 10:26 pm

“Once the Fed starts raising rates, foreigners will start to feel the pain as cheap/easy credit is curtailed the mad dash for cash begins.”

Are foreigners not net-long USD$ after decades of US trade deficits? So how does rising rates do anything but drive additional funds out of the US?

#120 sounternational on 11.29.15 at 10:29 pm

#115 Leo Trollstoy on 11.29.15 at 10:08 pm

Mark drinks his own brand of Kool Aid.
—————————–
I said :

#81 souvereigninternational on 11.29.15 at 7:04 pm

“It is only a loss when you sell it.”

LOL what a clown. I can’t believe people still use that line.
——————-
Clown that you are. You definitely should not dis people who share a lot of your views. Save that for Ralph Cramdowns, Shawn and Elevator Farts etc…….
——————-
Sorry I meant to include you Leo

#121 Joseph R. on 11.29.15 at 10:30 pm

Speaking of dumb billionaires, Trump has an estimate 4 billions in assets. However, his portfolio would have been worth 13 billions today if he round have simply invested all in an S&P index fund:

http://fortune.com/2015/08/20/donald-trump-index-funds/

#122 Smoking Man on 11.29.15 at 10:36 pm

#58 kommykim on 11.29.15 at 6:09 pm
List of recent posts by our resident Billionaire Blog Dog “Doomer Gloomer”:

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/11/06/au-revoir/#comment-408734

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/10/07/get-a-grip-2/#comment-402187

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/09/17/the-head-fake/#comment-397545

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/06/12/seriously-5/#comment-378325
….

Typical, a commie finds a capitalist…

Now if billionare boy, wasent a billionaire, would have you go to the trouble of finding his posts..

The guys an idiot, GICs for Christ sake…

Mind you, I totally understand his reasoning for no fed spike. Global ressesion knocking on the door.

Prick has probably has been stocking my posts, trying to be the hero prediction specialist.. he’s not a nectonite, impossible to do it consistently.

What this kid is not factoring in.

Heronomics 101

Yellen lossing all credidibilty if she doesn’t.

Its comming. Only one..

Bank it…

#123 Harbour on 11.29.15 at 10:48 pm

Ya Eskimos !!!

#124 Smoking Man on 11.29.15 at 10:48 pm

#1 Doomer Gloomer on 06.12.15 at 6:23 pm
If you are so sure about interest rates rising then why won’t you take my $100,000? It is easy money that you can make in 6 months. I will pay you in full on Dec 31. Put you money where your mouth is.

That would be child abuse. — Garth
……

Ill take that bet….have your attorney call mine..get my email from Garth…

#125 Ronaldo on 11.29.15 at 10:49 pm

”So if bloating rates or moribund oil cause real estate values to decline just 10%, all equity is poof.”

Real estate commissions to turn around and sell it again will pretty much wipe out the 8% down payment let alone all the other costs associated with buying and selling a house. And if they overpaid to begin with, big time doo doo like some people I know of.

#126 Nemesis on 11.29.15 at 11:06 pm

“BTW, give us a credible link on the gold coin-toting top guns.” — HonGarth

#FunnyYouShouldAsk,Or… #”Shoot,AFellerCouldHaveA… #PrettyGoodWeekEndInVegas… #WithAllThatStuff…

https://youtu.be/vPwW7RaPO_g

#127 ALBERTASTROPHE on 11.29.15 at 11:08 pm

The Yellowgreens beat the Redblacks! Good for Alberta, we need a distraction.

The 12 Days of Paris begin in 5 hours.

Things will never be the same again.

#128 IKnow on 11.29.15 at 11:14 pm

Garth you have also been very wrong with YVR house prices in the last so many years.
Trust me I love to see a correction so people here would not all become real estates speculator zombies like in Hong Kong.
But there IS a change in paradigm.
Vancouver ethnic Chinese, with the stimulation enticed by the 5% wealthy mainland china speculators, have brought out their innate cultural driven real estates ownership madness.

Back when house average prices were $500k few people care to make a move.
Now at $1.4M every ethnic Chinese family is hot about the market.
The rest of YVR’ers to various extent also caught the fever.

Unless world wide epidemic or atomic wars or tsunami wiping out half of Richmond were to happen, there cannot be any substantial correction.
And again I do NOT like or want that, but how can my liking or wanting challenge the market direction.

Average Vancouver house prices will test the absolute limits of “affordability”.
And I’m calling that to be $3M for an average Vancouver (exclude Fraser Valley) single family house.

#129 common sense on 11.29.15 at 11:15 pm

Smokey and Doomer…

What’s a $100K between viewpoints?

Will Doomer raise or fold?

Let the games begin!

#130 Leo Trollstoy on 11.29.15 at 11:20 pm

Billionaire from selling their tech company. Nice. Tech is booming man.

#131 Leo Trollstoy on 11.29.15 at 11:22 pm

#121 Joseph R. on 11.29.15 at 10:30 pm

I’m 100% sure he had more fun doing it his way.

You can’t take it with you.

#132 ANON on 11.29.15 at 11:27 pm

A billionaire doomer. What an intriguing, extraordinary combination. One of 64 if somehow he could convert his private promises into public promises commonly accepted in exchange for tuna. Poor guy…

#133 Leo Trollstoy on 11.29.15 at 11:28 pm

It’s obvious that you know nothing at all about trading, and are totally obsessed with the notion of you being “right”. In the meantime, others with more sense would rather be rich than right.

Bingo.

Hence his 2 university degrees, going unemployed for almost a decade and consistently misleading information. Wrong in YVR/YYZ real estate prices, wrong on gold, wrong on CAD/USD.

It’s sad. But I’m glad ppl like this are poor.

#134 Nagraj on 11.29.15 at 11:36 pm

Good grief.

For some (unexplained) reason the MYSTERY BILLIONAIRE is sittin’ in GT’s office and kinda says – Gartho baby youse got everythin’ wrong, like you are out to lunch, bozo.
And GT, instead of takin’ a page outa Emily Post [to wit, NEVER annoy the rich and powerful when they’re in your house (unless yer richer and powerfuller)] kinda responds – you, oh billionaire bum, are an idiot!

Then the “steerage section” gets in on it – I’m with the billionaire! I’m with Garth! I’m –

rockabye baby on the tree top, when the wind blows the cradle will rock

oh some hardy souls
seriously bent
on theological argument
stabbing at shadows
with shadow knives
truly bore
their pregnant wives

#135 Greg on 11.29.15 at 11:40 pm

Doomers see the link.
This news sound like it could literally blow up, I hope not.
I also hope NATO remembers Turkey shot first!
A big war could make the next war if anyone is left, be fought with sticks and stones.

Nov. 29, 2015
http://www.infowars.com/turkey-blockades-russian-shipping-black-sea-fleet-completely-cut-off/

#136 Wild roasted Nutz on 11.29.15 at 11:45 pm

#127 ALBERTASTROPHE on 11.29.15 at 11:08 pm

The Yellowgreens beat the Redblacks! Good for Alberta, we need a distraction.

The 12 Days of Paris begin in 5 hours.

Things will never be the same again.
——-
Is that good or bad?

#137 Mike T. on 11.29.15 at 11:47 pm

see, you are all wrong

everyone

the big confusing distractions are there so you don’t notice life evolving

why do I know this?

I’m watching evolution happen while you guys are watching the distractions

become rapport based, buy a cell biology book, I guess read the cell biology book too just in case that part is not obvious, make yourself as efficient as a cell, it’s its own mini Universe in there

then you’ll see what I see

#138 God Bless America on 11.29.15 at 11:47 pm

Leo Tolstoy…I know that you have a major bromance brewing but you should know that Boy Wonder has been espousing the same drivel for nearly five years now?

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2011/02/

#139 Mark on 11.29.15 at 11:50 pm

“Hence his 2 university degrees, going unemployed for almost a decade and consistently misleading information. Wrong in YVR/YYZ real estate prices, wrong on gold, wrong on CAD/USD.”

Making it up as you go along I see. Sad, sad. I’ve never misled anyone. Your comments, however, are quite misleading. You should apologize and go sit in a corner.

#140 Smoking Man on 11.29.15 at 11:55 pm

#129 common sense on 11.29.15 at 11:15 pm
Smokey and Doomer…

What’s a $100K between viewpoints?

Will Doomer raise or fold?

Let the games begin!
..

I’m short stack against a poker star.
I will go a million.

I’m never wrong..OK yellow pages and the airplanes.. no one is perfect..

We on boy. Lets do it..you only live once.

#141 Bottoms_Up on 11.29.15 at 11:55 pm

Interest rates? Schmaaa, they won’t matter on a scorched earth.

Cop21 is here, let’s hope world leaders get something done and get our environment stabilized for future generations.

#142 Mark on 11.29.15 at 11:58 pm

“Tech is booming man.”

For the investors, sure. No denying that in the US, where firms which employ very few people, deploy very little capital, and have no earnings wield enormous market capitalizations. But for employees or those outside of the narrow “social media”-led sector, it has not been good times.

I think you need to actually bother to study or talk to someone involved with the sector instead of merely believing most of the nonsense you spout. Or even go to websites like Glasdoor and see that the vast majority of Silicon Valley tech workers in an allegedly hot sector do not even earn enough for home ownership. Mere San Jose police officers, typically at $150k+ with their overtime and pensions, are solidly outearning most SV software engineering talent.

#143 Panhead on 11.30.15 at 12:03 am

#82 Washed Up Lawyer on 11.29.15 at 7:06 pm
Buy ammo????

What self respecting billionaire would do that? Make your own, you sissy. Save oodles of bucks and invest the savings.

————————————————————
Not so sure about that anymore. Depends on what you are loading. Reloading supplies aren’t cheap any more. Definately more accurate though. Fun too, but a long drive to a range out here in 604. All the close ones are long gone …

#144 anonymouse on 11.30.15 at 12:25 am

#58 kommykim on 11.29.15 at 6:09 pm

Wow creepy. Seek help nutcase. Datamining blog comment sections trying to find peoples identity? Find something better to do on a Sunday.

#145 Ronaldo on 11.30.15 at 12:26 am

”Gold: $900-an-ounce loss in four years. Where else can you flush away 47% of your money so efficiently? — Garth”

The amount of gold that the average person on the street buys or holds is so insignificant it’s not even worth talking about.

The following link tells you pretty much all you need to know about the stuff.

http://www.numbersleuth.org/worlds-gold/

#146 PeterfromCalgary on 11.30.15 at 12:28 am

Yikes a billionaire being ultraconservative. If anyone should be taking risks with their money it is the ultra rich. Even if a billionaire losses 90% their is still 100 million left over. On the other hand even 1% of a billion is enough income to live off of.

#147 Great Canadian Bubble Co. on 11.30.15 at 12:29 am

Congratulations!

Great to know we have a billionaire in our midst. I would love to hear more about how you achieved your billion and any advice you would give millennials hoping to find success in this current market.

Feel free to get my details from Garth. We can do Timmies. My treat.

#148 RayofLight on 11.30.15 at 12:29 am

People in general do not realize the methane from livestock, and the extra energy required to produce the meat they eat is harder on the planet than the emissions from the cars, auto, trains & planes. Obama is cloaking himself around the big green climate change flag, and is encouraging T2 to changes Canada’s ways. This is a scam. This is just trade protectionism on the part of the US, and T2 & Wynne are drinking the Kool Aid big time. The US is the largest consumer of beef /person on the planet. It would be a win /win from an environmental and health point of view to address this issue & explain this to the public. There is absolutely zero chance Obama will, it’s easier to “Blame Canada”

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-34899066

#149 Big Dipper on 11.30.15 at 12:30 am

#25 Ralph Cramdown on 11.29.15 at 3:20 pm

“It must be interesting to work in cash management at a bank with $1B in GICs outstanding to one customer and not knowing whether he’ll roll them or not. Or maybe he’s laddered it and you only have to worry about $500mm at a time…”

—————————

My first thought was that this person was very risk adverse and wanted the whole one billion in GIC’s insured by CDIC. Possible for accounts up to $100k and a maximum 5 year term.

I neglected to do the math, as it will take 10,000 accounts to insure the billion….

#150 kommykim on 11.30.15 at 12:36 am

RE:

#122 Smoking Man on 11.29.15 at 10:36 pm
Typical, a commie finds a capitalist…
Now if billionare boy, wasent a billionaire, would have you go to the trouble of finding his posts..

Hmmmm? I only searched him because of Garth’s current blog posting. I like to analyze what goes on behind the scenes. Google makes it pretty easy to do, so not much trouble at all.

The guys an idiot, GICs for Christ sake…

Yes and NO. GICs are not a bad option if the Fed is about to hike and much better than bonds if held in a taxable account. Why pay extra tax on a 5% coupon (bond) which yields 2% once you factor in the capital losses when you can just buy a GIC which yields 2% with the same duration? Holding some cash is also not a bad option.

Yellen lossing all credidibilty if she doesn’t.
Its comming. Only one..
Bank it…

We’ll see. I agree though. If Yellen doesn’t give a hike then she should be taking one.

#151 Yitzhak Rabin on 11.30.15 at 12:39 am

“As also pointed out here, rates never rise once and halt. Or reverse. ”

How about in our country? Japan in 2002? Sweden, and the EU post 2011? A little more relevant than what the Fed did in 1960 don’t you think?

It’s highly unlikely they will raise rates now with the election year coming up, plus we can depend on the “winter” to lower “GDP” again and likely be cited as an excuse.

Citizens, corporations and governments at the local, state and federal level are already hopelessly over-indebted. Any ability to withstand a rate hike is minimal at best.

It’s disappointing you, CNBC and all other financial commentators hang on desperately to every word the FED says as if it is the word of god. These people have never once forecasted a recession since 1913. Ben Bernanke denied there was a recession in 2008 when it later came out they were already in one that started in 2007.

I think you know things are not alright, and find it easier to take comfort in the official narrative.

You’re scared.

#152 RayofLight on 11.30.15 at 12:49 am

#99 Freedom First on 11.29.15 at 8:58 pm
68% of Canadians are financially literate, ay, Ray. Any idea how many of those 68% literates do what they know is right instead of doing what they want want want? Which, of course, would relate to reality. Garth has been showing us the real numbers of Canadian debt snorflers every step of the way.
———————————————-
I’m not arguing with you! I figure if Canadians are on the “Top Shelf” of Global Financial Literacy, then all bets are off for humanity.

#153 For those about to flop... on 11.30.15 at 12:54 am

Mark #139 and every bloody post.
Making it up as you go along I see. Sad, sad. I’ve never misled anyone. Your comments, however, are quite misleading. You should apologize and go sit in a corner.
/////////////////////////////////////

Go and sit in the corner? What the bloody hell is wrong with you?You think that slinging a bit of mud is beneath you? You try to rationally argue with people that are trying to gode you.
Sling some mud once in a while ,you will get more respect its not that hard.
Just think of something funny/ stupid and sling it.
I’ll show you how it goes ……Trollstroy ,if I want to have a conversation with a prick I’d go out to the desert!
See it’s not that hard ,sure you try and take the high ground but it doesn’t work on an anonymous blog.
Say/write something you wouldn’t normally say.
When I first got on the blog” brd sktrn “chirped me a few times and he said” why don’t you get a heap a gold while your at it”
I wasn’t even talking about gold so I told him to shove a gold bar up his backside and he has left me alone since.
You want respect ,earn it…..blog style.

#154 Yuus bin Haad on 11.30.15 at 12:57 am

In the grand scheme of things, the interest rate debate (as interesting and entertaining as it is) is meaningless – a butterfly flapping its wings – a tree falling – just stay solvent through whatever happens (and according to whatever strategy suits you).

#155 Ronaldo on 11.30.15 at 12:58 am

”Owning the TSX through an ETF such as XIU gives all of the PM exposure anybody should have. Beyond that is an irrational gamble. — Garth

I have often wondered why anyone would even consider buying XIU given its volatility and the fact that 2/3 of it is comprised of Financials, Energy and Materials plus its low yield. There are much better alternatives out there. Right now it would have to gain 15% to get back to its 52 week high and it was down over 20%. Another dog is XEG, down 62% since its high in June of 08. Every bit as bad as owning individual stocks and that goes for quite a few of these ETF’s. Most people would have been better off to have invested in a good balanced fund that would have netted them 7% per year over the past 10 years. And that would have given them all the exposure they needed to precious metals as well. Just my opinion.

I cited XIU as a small weighting in a balanced portfolio. Repetition is tedious. But obviously required. — Garth

#156 Record China money on 11.30.15 at 1:02 am

This graph probably reflects Canada as well. Cheap money, relaxed rules plays a big role in the house prices. But, I think the foreign money also played a role. When high end prices rise, it pulls the price bracket of the medium and low end prices up as well. It is impossible that loads of Chinese money did not have an affect on our RE prices.

Now, with Chinese money pulling out and rates rising, both factors will put downward pressure on prices.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-pull-back-from-u-s-property-investments-1448649226

#157 Ex-Cowtown on 11.30.15 at 1:02 am

#87 Climate Change Talke on 11.29.15 at 7:57 pm

If the Politicians are aiming to limit Global warming by 2C by 2100, a goal they seem deeply passionate about and possibly able to be forecasted by their superior models, What do they forecast the world population be by that point, and how will they make sure it is that approximate number?

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I will absolutely guarantee that we won’t hit 2C by 2100 due to CO2. The only thing that says we will reach it is a bunch of flawed and screwed up computer models. The real world temperatures don’t agree at all with the models and temperatures have Paused (flatlined) for the past 19 years and 9 months.

Interestingly, several “climate scientists” went on record several years ago stating that if the Pause lasts 20 years they’d have to admit that their Global Warming thingy was a bunch of hooey. Anybody want to guess whether they’ll remember what they said?

#158 kommykim on 11.30.15 at 1:26 am

RE:

#144 anonymouse on 11.30.15 at 12:25 am
#58 kommykim on 11.29.15 at 6:09 pm
Wow creepy. Seek help nutcase. Datamining blog comment sections trying to find peoples identity? Find something better to do on a Sunday.

Googling a phrase is creepy? It took me a couple of minutes to do that. If you want anonymity, don’t post stuff on the internet, use a VPN, etc….

#159 M on 11.30.15 at 1:35 am

..comments sometimes make one scratch tza head..

there’s a reason for which GICs are not for everyone..lol. With a bill in Investment and 5 mil/yr at no risk.. what’s wrong with that ? :)

..that s not the point though… point is that most of you gents are suckers believing the Jenny booga booga.
Credibility of the FED most of you believe in…is all gone in the LCTM debacle in the 90s

there will be no interest hike because the $hitty US economic numbers show it very clearly…
..no jobs/$hitty jobs/$hitty retail…crappy kinda everything.

..oh yes.. CO2 is a greenhouse gas and gov stats are real, transparent and NON misleading :)

so.. shadowstats:
http://www.shadowstats.com/

..as usual , when one is taking a crap on generally shared views, one is either sent to gulag or publicly
reviled (depending on times and locations..)

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ro/2015/04/deconstructing-and-debunking-shadowstats.html

..however..if one takes the observation into account.. well… one should probably throw away the TV to fiind aut what’s happening in the World

There will be no rate hike by the FED.
Rates WILL go to stratosphere though. when the bond market will unravel. When ? Who cares ? It will happen.

..If Gartho would buy me a bottle of Finlandia every time I gave him good advise re rates NON-hike… by December 31st 2015 I would be on my 4th bottle.

…well.. ok.. assuming that anyone at the FED will give a rat s ass about their own credibility (which I doubt), Jenny will rase rates by 0.0005% :)
..but she’ll have the Depends ON first :)

#160 Ronaldo on 11.30.15 at 1:39 am

#52 Down and out on 11.29.15 at 5:31 pm

”#33 Freedom First ,I too lived through the 20% rate , people spent furiously has rates climbed from 9% thinking they will never see cheap rates again ,then the economy went bust.”

Remember those times well. Back then when rates climbed from 10% in spring of 1979 to over 23% by 1983 an average priced home would have cost around $60,000 and would have represented 2.5 times 1 persons annual income and cost to service before the rapid rise would have been about 25% of gross income for 1 person. So, when interest rates peaked, the cost to service would have been around 50% of that persons gross wages to service. And that would have been at doubling of rates. Today in Vancouver we have the same situation now before rates even start to increase. A disaster in the making.

#161 Mark on 11.30.15 at 1:43 am

“I have often wondered why anyone would even consider buying XIU given its volatility and the fact that 2/3 of it is comprised of Financials, Energy and Materials plus its low yield. “

The yield on XIU is actually pretty good these days compared to what it has been historically. And while nobody should have 100% in Canada, it is a great way of being exposed to Canadian eligible dividends for taxable investors. The first $50-$60k annually of which are basically tax free for investors who have no other income on account of being ‘eligible dividends’.

XIU (ie: the TSX Index) has outperformed most actively managed Canadian equities funds (see: S&P’s SPIVA reports) for a significant period. Despite its concentration in certain sectors, most investors fail to outperform it for their Canadian equity exposure.

Like any investment, it has its place in a balanced portfolio, allocated and rebalanced accordingly. On account of its exposure to the materials, precious metals, and telecoms/railways, and even the Canadian, it will most likely will outperform in a rising long-term rate environment as it has underperformed in the falling long-term rate environment. The TSX tends to be more correlated to global growth (particularly the emerging markets) as of late, rather than the US. Hence the significant divergence as experienced.

#162 Mark on 11.30.15 at 1:44 am

“and even the Canadian…”

Canadian banks.

#163 observer on 11.30.15 at 2:16 am

#47 rabbit’s foot on 11.29.15 at 4:51 pm
Across the nation there are legions of basement dwellers clutching their lucky rabbit’s feet and praying for a rate increase of .25 percent, as though it will turn the tide and permit them to dwell in the light. It won’t my musty friends. That ship sailed long ago and you weren’t on it.

Best to hang onto your savings and enjoy the peace of solvency and mobility. A quarter point rate increase isn’t going to drive many people under nor will it swell your GIC. Much ado about nothing me thinks.
=============

Not me, Ièm betting against the canuck buck (loonie)

I couldnèt care less if the housing crashes in Canada. So far the dollar already crashed by over 25% from its highs. I rise in interest rates just ups the ante for a few more percentage gain.

A crashing market just makes the loonie weaker and is the safer bet.

However on the flip side It lowers the price of housing for foreign investments But on the flip side buying Canadian housing is like investing in the loonie.

God help us if CMHC show signs of Fanny and Freddie, It can be a repeat of the USA, but different because its Canadian style and the weight is on the taxpayers

8 years later, and we now finally see a sign of recovery in the US

#164 Frank on 11.30.15 at 2:28 am

So 1 year from now, where do you think home prices will be? At today’s level? 2014 levels? 2012?

#165 Da Gunner on 11.30.15 at 2:56 am

When the dust settles you need food and toilet paper. Good luck substituting pieces of metal. Ouch. — Garth

Garth

Time to go environmentally friendly….add a bum gun to your life and you can then modify your above statement to “you only need food”…a common household item in Asia which has yet to become popular in the Great White North

http://www.thebumgun.com/

#166 Investx on 11.30.15 at 3:51 am

” This has been the longest stretch in history where interest rates have not been increased.”

Well, well, well… the Japanese know that feeling.
And people said prolonged low rates couldn’t happen here.

#167 OXI in GREECE on 11.30.15 at 4:39 am

#102 bsfinder on 11.29.15 at 9:13 pm
There are no Canadian billionaires from technology. Nice bs though.

I had one sitting in my office. — Garth
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

your really going to call the Rogers Family a technology company? That is like calling the Ford family an oil and gas company…..

#168 willworkforpickles on 11.30.15 at 4:54 am

Krampus is coming….

#169 Alberta wing-nuts on 11.30.15 at 5:54 am

INFLATION because businesses didn’t do what they were expected to do with their tax windfall. Year after year, decade after decade of lowering corporate tax has allowed these corporations to stock-pile gazillions of dollars without re-investment into their respective areas. Cash is king as everybody knows today to stay as liquid as possible. How to fix this,, INFLATION of course,, so that these cash reserves of non-moving money begin to loose value (as inflation lessens the purchasing power of dollars). INFLATION will not appear as the US raises interest rates but rather as they allow things to get a little sloppy, by keeping the interest rate where it is or by lowering it still. NO INTEREST RATE HIKE JUST YET BUT RATHER A HIGHER INFLATION TARGET…..

#170 fancy_pants on 11.30.15 at 8:35 am

No worries. The ‘house’ has your back.
http://www.montrealgazette.com/business/banking+group+warned+government+about+mortgage+risk+sharing/11554216/story.html

#171 Millennial Realist on 11.30.15 at 9:11 am

Another neocon dinosaur government comes crashing down today, in Newfoundland and Labrador’s election.

The only fools bigger than those buying overpriced shacks in 416 and 604 are the boomer dinosaurs and their pals who don’t realize what a sea-change is taking place politically.

The vote has been changed forever. No more Harper, no more favours for the 1 percent.

Trickle down dino-cons, this is the way things will be until you kick the bucket. Get used to it.

More Justin, more Notley, more fairness, more closing of loopholes, more hope for the planet and our collective future. Less stupidity, it goes without saying.

Of course, there will be the usual emasculated little turds here and elsewhere who cry in their porridge and bang their silver spoons, but no matter.

Change is here. Get on board, or get run over by it.

Welcome to the 21st century, Newfoundland and Labrador!

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/n-l-election-things-to-know-1.3342444

#172 #140 Smoking Man - You Rock on 11.30.15 at 9:24 am

I am becoming a devotee…

Rates will go up.

What goes up, must come down. The reverse is true.

Because someone can write more 0’s on a cheque, does not make them an intellectual luminary of our times.

#173 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.30.15 at 9:40 am

@#171 Millenial Realist

“The vote has been changed forever. No more Harper, no more favours for the 1 percent.

Trickle down dino-cons, this is the way things will be until you kick the bucket. Get used to it.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Really?
You actually believe that there will never, ever be another “pro- business anti environemental” govt elected in Canada?
Just wait for the pending income tax increases, CPP increase and the endless “userfees” brought to you by the latest govt. in power.
Yes, climate change is an issue but to think that its a whole new world out there is incredibally naive.
Lets make a prediction about the Paris Conference. All the world leaders will put their “stern” faces on and blather on in politically correct Orwellian “doublespeak’. A few “goals” will be agreed upon and a few documents signed.
Before the “leaders” even hit the tarmac to fly home there will be disagreement and back room deals to break the agreed upon deals…..

Perhaps you should rename yourself to “Millenial Fantacist”.
If you do. I’ll change my name to CrowdedCowFartz. What with bovine bumgas being a direct contributor to glaciers melting and all that……..

#174 fancy_pants on 11.30.15 at 9:56 am

When the dust settles you need food and toilet paper. Good luck substituting pieces of metal. Ouch. — Garth

That dang globe of crystal is fuzzy this morning. Although it may be saying when the dust settles it will be better value to wipe your a$$ with some greenbacks than a piece of toilet paper. Hungry? bonus, they offer comparable nutritional value to most fast food as well.

#175 Smoking Man on 11.30.15 at 10:12 am

#141 Bottoms_Up on 11.29.15 at 11:55 pm
Interest rates? Schmaaa, they won’t matter on a scorched earth.

Cop21 is here, let’s hope world leaders get something done and get our environment stabilized for future generations.
……………………………….

Watch this when it comes out…

http://www.climatehustle.com

#176 sam on 11.30.15 at 10:13 am

“This week will tell us a lot. Monday sees Fed boss Janet Yellen speaking to the Economic Club of Washington. Will she once again say a rate hike in a few days is a “live possibility”? The next day she slides into the witness chair before a Congressional committee, where there’s a 100% chance she’ll be asked if the US economy is strong enough to weather higher rates.”

It sounds like our economy is a religion where we have to wait for our prophet to tell us. How can economics be considered a science when we have this mechanism?

#177 Broke Dick on 11.30.15 at 10:38 am

Our, not are.

dumb, dumb, dumb.

#178 Broke Dick on 11.30.15 at 11:00 am

To Mr. Doomer Gloomer.
I hope you are not breaking Garth’s rule of 90.
If you are 60 years old you shouldn’t have more than $300,000,000 tied up in real estate.

On a more serious note how does anyone here have the gall to call him a loser for having his BILLION in GIC’s?

#179 Fred Murtz on 11.30.15 at 11:07 am

If banks are required to share more of the mortgage risk, other than dumping it all onto the backs of the taxpayer through CHMC, we will see far fewer qualify, and ‘special charges’ imposed on all applicants. Gone will be the open ended liar loans given to new immigrants. Will the government have to create a special category to keep that spigot open?

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/11/30/Banking-group-warned-government-about-mortgage-risk-sharing-plan-documents.aspx

#180 liquidincalgary on 11.30.15 at 11:08 am

RayofLight on 11.30.15 at 12:29 am

People in general do not realize the methane from livestock, and the extra energy required to produce the meat they eat is harder on the planet than the emissions from the cars, auto, trains & planes.

===============================================

there’s also this:

http://www.cowspiracy.com/

#181 Smoking Man on 11.30.15 at 11:16 am

#178 Broke Dick on 11.30.15 at 11:00 am
To Mr. Doomer Gloomer.
I hope you are not breaking Garth’s rule of 90.
If you are 60 years old you shouldn’t have more than $300,000,000 tied up in real estate.

On a more serious note how does anyone here have the gall to call him a loser for having his BILLION in GIC’s?
…..

Bet baiting

#182 cramar on 11.30.15 at 11:25 am

Must be the only Billionaire in the world that puts his fortune in GICs. Progressive indeed!

#183 Ronaldo on 11.30.15 at 11:38 am

I would recommend that anyone who is retired with adequate pension income and large investment accounts look into these as a part of their estate planning strategies.

http://www.advisor.ca/tax/tax-news/why-use-corporate-class-funds-84398

#184 Karl hungus on 11.30.15 at 11:44 am

The losses in RE are not crystallized unless sold, no different then stocks. Can’t have it both ways Garth

Real estate has significant carrying costs. Stocks do not. Direct comparisons are illogical. — Garth

#185 Renter's Revenge! on 11.30.15 at 11:50 am

#178 Broke Dick on 11.30.15 at 11:00 am
“To Mr. Doomer Gloomer.
I hope you are not breaking Garth’s rule of 90.
If you are 60 years old you shouldn’t have more than $300,000,000 tied up in real estate.”

Actually, I believe Garth once implied he was a child in response to a personal challenge. So, if he’s 30, then it’s ok for him to have up to $600,000,000 tied up in real estate. Which means if he’s careful with his money, he might be able to afford a modest home in Vancouver or Toronto.

“On a more serious note how does anyone here have the gall to call him a loser for having his BILLION in GIC’s?”

Maybe because he’d have to spread it out over 10,000 separate accounts in order to have it all covered by CDIC.

#186 JimH on 11.30.15 at 12:12 pm

#48 Johnny
“You are conspiracy theorist or insane for thinking that adding more debt to unplayable debt can end anywhere but disaster.”
===================================

Ever consider that all “Party A’s” liabilities are “Party B’s” assets?

#187 Leo Trollstoy on 11.30.15 at 12:18 pm

Maybe because he’d have to spread it out over 10,000 separate accounts in order to have it all covered by CDIC.

Lol!

One of the most hilarious things I’ve read today.

Thank you.

#188 Leo Trollstoy on 11.30.15 at 12:21 pm

If a person wants to put their $ in GICs or pig futures or whatever, it’s their money. Do what you want with your own money.

#189 BS on 11.30.15 at 12:23 pm

“On a more serious note how does anyone here have the gall to call him a loser for having his BILLION in GIC’s?”

Maybe because he’d have to spread it out over 10,000 separate accounts in order to have it all covered by CDIC.

Not even possible to insure $1 billion in CDIC accounts. There are only about 50 members so you would be maxed at $5 million insured if you set up an account with every member/bank. Only a fool would consider GICs as an option for a billion. On top of the sub-inflation return, lack of liquidity and high tax rate almost all of it would not be CDIC insured.

http://www.cdic.ca/Pages/Members.aspx

#190 BS on 11.30.15 at 12:26 pm

I would recommend that anyone who is retired with adequate pension income and large investment accounts look into these as a part of their estate planning strategies.

I bet after the fees and commissions there wouldn’t be much to tax anyway.

#191 IHCTD9 on 11.30.15 at 12:54 pm

I while back, after paying off the house; I decided that for one time in my life, I would treat myself. I’ve been a car guy all my life, but always drove cheap used cars (although they were chosen with great taste). I settled on a MB C63 AMG after a very extensive, yet enjoyable couple months of research.

Today I shelved those plans. Since the election, I feel my job security quite quickly come up for debate. Manufacturing has had more than its share of black eyes and broken ribs in Ontario over the last 15 years – but trouble in my sector seems to be increasing since August. Sales are down 40-50% in 3 of the last 4 months, December will be a wash as well I am sure. We’ve started laying off, and it does not look like we are done. Prices have nosedived heavily, some shops are obviously desperate already, and are pricing work at insanely low rates.

Here’s to Yellen for a rate hike, and Poloz for a rate cut. I’m going to need a .60 something Loonie to get work out of the USA, or 40% shop rate cut to get work out of Onatrio…

#192 Ralph Cramdown on 11.30.15 at 1:14 pm

Funny crowd we’ve got here today. Personally, I wouldn’t put a billion inGICs, but I’ve been investing for a while and I’ve developed the stomach for it. There’s plenty of people who couldn’t handle losing $20,000 in a day, never mind $20 million, or $100 million plus in a bad year. If you came into your money all at once (say from the sale of a business), you’re not immune to loss aversion. If you’re set for life, you don’t need to take any risk.

Some people think low interest rates are terribly unfair to millions of seniors who aren’t very wealthy. Perhaps they are. But that isn’t why many Washington politicians are calling for raising rates. The driver of THAT message is a few thousand very wealthy people who’d really rather keep a LOT of their wealth in US government bonds, and resent those low rates.

#193 Blobby on 11.30.15 at 1:30 pm

What’s an xiu?

#194 Sheane Wallace on 11.30.15 at 1:33 pm

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/dailybrew/harper-nude-painting-sells-to-b-c–buyer-163948602.html

Emperor Haute Couture…

#195 Bottoms_Up on 11.30.15 at 1:43 pm

#173 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.30.15 at 9:40 am
—————————–
Let’s do a mental exercise. Let’s say there was a second uninhabited earth in our solar system.

Would you move there if all energy had to come from renewable sources? Do you believe that would be a worthwhile approach?

#196 Broke Dick on 11.30.15 at 1:46 pm

HOT STOCK TIP!!!

This is so good it could have been written by Nagraj.
Worth the read Garth, too funny.

OTTAWA, CANADA–(Marketwire – November 30, 2015) – Wi-LAN Inc. (“WiLAN” or the “Company”) (TSX:WIN) (NASDAQ:WILN) today announced that its wholly owned subsidiary, WiLAN Labs, has Implemented, and received Notification of Standardization from the IEEE under future wireless standard 802.11L, poised to rapidly become a global standard. In addition a royalty arrangement is already in place, offering slight discounts to early adopters of the standard.

802.11L is poised to be the next global wireless standard, and is expected to be adopted by nearly 100 million devices in 2016, growing to 0.6 billion devices by 2018.

802.11L, known universally as “Lie-Fi,” is a mechanism in which a falsehood is uttered in one location and, over a broadband wireless or wireless networking infrastructure, that falsehood is repeated in another distant location, in some instances with an integer multiple.

Asked to comment on the significance of this announcement, the CEO James Skippen gave an example as follows:

Let’s call the originator of a falsehood, say, Tyler Burns, in an Ottawa location, say, a Tim Horton’s Coffee Shop. Tyler Burns would, say, utter into a wireless device, say, an iPhone6S, while crossing his fingers slyly behind his back, “we just signed a $400 million licensing agreement with Intel,” and at a remote location a broker, say “Paradigm Capital” for example, picks up the statement and starts calling clients to disseminate the statement. This, in essence, is 802.11L, Lie-Fi. In addition, let’s assume an analyst at Paradigm takes that $400 million and exaggerates it to $1.2 billion, this is also covered under the 802.11L standard as the “Lie-Fi Integer Amplification Factor.”
About WiLAN
WiLAN is one of the most unsuccessful patent licensing companies in the world and fumbles, bumbles, and stumbles trying to help companies unlock the value of intellectual property by managing and licensing their patent portfolios. The Company operates in a variety of markets including automotive, digital television, Internet, medical, semiconductor and wireless communication technologies. WiLAN’s wholly-owned subsidiary, WiLAN Labs, develops and commercializes innovative solutions to the challenges facing next generation communication networks. Founded in 1992, WiLAN is listed on the TSX and NASDAQ and is included in the S&P/TSX Dividend and Dividend Aristocrats Indexes. For more information: http://www.wilan.com.
All trademarks and brands mentioned in this release are the property of their respective owners.

#197 Bottoms_Up on 11.30.15 at 1:52 pm

#157 Ex-Cowtown on 11.30.15 at 1:02 am
—————————–
Yet, you rarely post a link to your “science”, and when you do it is complete bunk. Look up the Nasa temoerature charts and you will see that you are wrong.

You also fail to mention the FACT the earth surface temperature has risen close to 1 degree in 100 years.

#198 Broke Dick on 11.30.15 at 1:52 pm

#193 Blobby on 11.30.15 at 1:30 pm
What’s an xiu?

Not much. What’s xiu with you?

#199 Randy on 11.30.15 at 2:19 pm

Mr Turner you puzzle me…you really do.

The Liberals delivered 11 years of balanced budgets.

Your pal Harper inherited a budget SURPLUS in 2006.

HARPER proceeded to rack up a massive, in fact RECORD deficit that our brand new government has inherited.

And Harper sold off BILLIONS of OUR (and your) Canadian assets to boot.

How in God’s name can you say :

“People will continue to believe electing spend-and-tax people like Rachel Notley and Justin Trudeau was clever.”

when Harper is the one that virtually bankrupted our government?

Seriously…how can you utter such things? Are you really so partisan that you can’t see the truth? Are you somehow hoping to get back into Harper’s good graces?

Do all Cons disregard reality, integrity, honesty and the facts so flagrantly to suit their partisan agenda?

I am seriously beginning to believe so.

It would be interesting to see how T2 would have coped with 2008-9. To be fair, and more accurate, I have roundly criticized the Cons for adding $170 billion in new federal debt. Try to keep up. — Garth

#200 jean on 11.30.15 at 2:23 pm

If even Bernanke expects rates will never normalise, who are we to argue? I think Yellen will find an excuse to not raise in December. And in the unlikely event she does raise rates, it will be “one and done”.

“…Bernanke, 60, does not expect the federal funds rate, the Fed’s main benchmark interest rate, to rise back to its long-term average of around 4 percent in Bernanke’s lifetime…”

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/16/us-usa-fed-bernanke-insight-idUSBREA4F0OG20140516

#201 Randy Randerson on 11.30.15 at 2:29 pm

So the Renmenbi has finally joined the world reserve currency. What does it even mean?

#202 Smoking Man on 11.30.15 at 2:31 pm

#197 Bottoms_Up on 11.30.15 at 1:52 pm
#157 Ex-Cowtown on 11.30.15 at 1:02 am
—————————–
Yet, you rarely post a link to your “science”, and when you do it is complete bunk. Look up the Nasa temoerature charts and you will see that you are wrong.

You also fail to mention the FACT the earth surface temperature has risen close to 1 degree in 100 years.
……………………….

http://www.prisonplanet.com/global-warming-is-a-crock-of-sht.html

#203 Mark on 11.30.15 at 2:34 pm

“What’s an xiu?”

XIU refers to a mutual fund trust, traded/distributed through the TSX (ie: as an ETF), that tracks the TSX60 index. Primarily comprised of Canada’s largest 60 publicly traded firms. It is currently marketed/managed by BlackRock, and is said to be Canada’s largest mutual fund.

http://www.blackrock.com/ca/institutional/en/products/239832/ishares-sptsx-60-index-etf

Can’t help yourself, can you? — Garth

#204 saskatoon on 11.30.15 at 2:36 pm

#197 Bottoms_Up

“During the 20th century, the earth warmed 0.6 degree Celsius (1 degree Fahrenheit), but that warming has been wiped out in a single year with a drop of 0.63 degree C. (1.13 F.) in 2007. A single year does not constitute a trend reversal, but the magnitude of that temperature drop — equal to 100 years of warming — is noteworthy. Of course, it can also be argued that a mere 0.6 degree warming in a century is so tiny it should never have been considered a cause for alarm in the first place. Global temperature has declined since 1998.”

“Manmade emissions of carbon dioxide were not significant before worldwide industrialization began in the 1940s. They have increased steadily since. Over 80% of the 20th century’s carbon dioxide increase occurred after 1940 — but most of the century’s temperature increase occurred BEFORE 1940. From 1940 until the mid-1970s, the climate also failed to behave according to the greenhouse hypothesis, as carbon dioxide was strongly increasing while global temperatures cooled.”

#205 Mark on 11.30.15 at 2:36 pm

“So the Renmenbi has finally joined the world reserve currency. What does it even mean?”

Its potentially bad news for goldbugs as China may feel less of a need to accumulate gold to ‘prove’ the value of their currency to the IMF. And certainly should create demand for the Chinese currency as anyone seeing to replicate the SDR basket will need to hold Chinese Yuan as part of their replication efforts.

Then again, very little in economics actually behaves rationally these days, so its anyone’s guess.

#206 Karl hungus on 11.30.15 at 2:57 pm

Strawman Garth, where did I mention carry costs? You were talking about equity…

#207 chapter 9 on 11.30.15 at 3:34 pm

#199 Randy
Do all cons disregard reality, integrity,honesty……….

Really easy to balance the books when you steal the money. Chretien and Martin “unlawfully” without parliaments approval racked up huge surpluses in the EI account in 02,03,05 and diverted the money to balance the books. Chretien did the same thing with surplus money from pension funds. Integrity/Honesty, what a joke!

#208 Sheane Wallace on 11.30.15 at 3:46 pm

#204 saskatoon 

Global warming is a scam, the sole reason for the warming and cooling of the earth is the sun activity, this is why they stopped talking about it and started talking about the ‘climate change’.

The biggest problem is the depletion of the carbon fuels and the absolutely dominating role of few countries – Canada, Russia which could give them tremendous leverage in the future.
Of course this can not be announced as price of oil, gas and coil will absolutely skyrocket and kill whatever economy was left after the Great Recession.

So now the hope is in renewables and new energy sources.

The second biggest problem is the over-population and the destruction of forests, that would need to be addressed decisively through birth control for countries unable to control their population.

But Germany is investing in renewables anyway without the ‘climate change’ hoax.

It seems everybody is in a rush to start taxing carbon emissions worldwide, a carbon tax would be the first world tax so NWO conspiracy theorists might have some arguments here.

For Canada carbon tax would be devastating, specially for glass condo owners that would most probably need to pay hundreds of dollars in ‘heating’ fees.

#209 jess on 11.30.15 at 3:48 pm

Four KPMG partners arrested in tax evasion investigation
by Calum Fuller
27 Nov 2015

http://www.accountancyage.com/aa/news/2436814/four-kpmg-partners-arrested-in-tax-evasion-investigation
=====================
HBOS bank failure -hindsight?

“This Report produced by the FCA and PRA explains why HBOS failed in October 2008 and sets out conclusions and recommendations.

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/pra/Documents/publications/reports/hbos.pdf

#210 Trading Naked on 11.30.15 at 3:50 pm

So after a series of slow-motion slapstick trades, I’ve been short Detour Gold at $12 since last summer. I’m not overly happy with myself, but at least I’m writing puts against it and bagging premium. I don’t know which way gold is going and I don’t care about the reasons why. All I know right now is that the price is holding steady. I also know from experience that gold can tank hard or spike hard when things seem flat, like right now. So, like, whatever.

As for the rest of the economy: deals are harder to come by at the grocery store, even at the clearance rack which is emptier than normal. And my coupon stash is running low. I went through a Crazy Coupon Lady phase (y’know, the lady with the fistful of them that holds up the line) in the first half of the year. It’s been bleak in the past three months.

#211 VH on 11.30.15 at 3:56 pm

While I’m not a Billionaire, I guess you can label (name-call) me a “doomer” as well. Because, the facts, as your Billionaire buddy points out, don’t lie.

Here’s your “recovery”:

‘Black Friday Sales Down More Than $1 Billion’
(Everyone went online to shop. Sure they did)

Link: http://time.com/4128592/black-friday-sales-down/

‘To JPM, This Is The Alarming Chart Suggesting The Next Recession “Is Just Around The Corner”‘

Link: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-30/jpm-alarming-chart-suggesting-next-recession-just-around-corner

‘Morgan Stanley To Cull 25% Of Fixed Income Jobs Within 2 Weeks As Revenues Plunge’

Link: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-30/morgan-stanley-cull-25-fixed-income-jobs-2-weeks-revenues-plunge

‘Recession Looms As Dallas Fed Manufacturing Contracts 11th Month In A Row’

Link: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-30/recession-looms-dallas-fed-manufacturing-contracts-11th-month-row

#212 saskatoon on 11.30.15 at 4:02 pm

#208 Sheane Wallace

1. world “over-population” is a myth
2. “peak oil” is a myth

that being said, seeking alternative sources of energy seems like a good idea.

i also like forests.

#213 Kalergie on 11.30.15 at 4:24 pm

Was it Robert Herjavec?

#214 Ronaldo on 11.30.15 at 4:24 pm

#190 BS on 11.30.15 at 12:26 pm

“I bet after the fees and commissions there wouldn’t be much to tax anyway.“

You would lose the bet.

#215 IHCTD9 on 11.30.15 at 4:31 pm

#171 Millennial Realist on 11.30.15 at 9:11 am
Another neocon dinosaur government comes crashing down today, in Newfoundland and Labrador’s election.

The only fools bigger than those buying overpriced shacks in 416 and 604 are the boomer dinosaurs and their pals who don’t realize what a sea-change is taking place politically.

The vote has been changed forever. No more Harper, no more favours for the 1 percent.

Trickle down dino-cons, this is the way things will be until you kick the bucket. Get used to it.

More Justin, more Notley, more fairness, more closing of loopholes, more hope for the planet and our collective future. Less stupidity, it goes without saying.

Of course, there will be the usual emasculated little turds here and elsewhere who cry in their porridge and bang their silver spoons, but no matter.

Change is here. Get on board, or get run over by it.

Welcome to the 21st century, Newfoundland and Labrador!
___________________________________________

I’m afraid yours is the generation that will be screwed by these “progressive” policies – and it’s only just begun. It will take 20+ years to see the full consequences of the policies enacted today by those for whom you are cheerleading.

In 20 years I’ll be retired, with bank, watching the SHTF from the comfort of a house I own. You, will be in the midst of your most heavily expensed, and taxed years of your life, and rest assured, you will see taxes and fees like no Canadian has ever seen prior to your generation. Climate change battles are expensive you see, so are green power initiatives.

The 1%ers love guys like you – just ask any of the executives at the former Power Blades plant in Welland. Ask the power brokers at Senvion in Germany as well – quite a few 1%ers there will profusely thank you for voting in brainless tree hugging Liberals like McGuinty. After all, without all those tax dollars the Libs threw at them, well – they would have had to settle for market rates. The Liberal green energy initiatives made the (temporary) trans Atlantic move well worth the effort!

I have a neighbour down the road who set up a microfit solar array, he also thanks you for voting for tree huggers. He always had lots of money, but now he’s rolling in it thanks to the .80/KWHR (not a typo, almost a buck a KW) the government pays him to err… “generate” green solar electricity. Double thanks for the 20 year fixed price contract!

I don’t thank you because I have to pay for it. Soon enough though, I will be passing this torch to you. :)

You see MR, the rich get richer, the poor get poorer. Go ahead and pat yourself on the back – you’re the cause. The 1% laugh while you’re out changing the world…

#216 Ronaldo on 11.30.15 at 4:59 pm

#215 IHCTD9 on 11.30.15 at 4:31 pm

“You see MR, the rich get richer, the poor get poorer. Go ahead and pat yourself on the back – you’re the cause. The 1% laugh while you’re out changing the world…“`

Absolutely right.

#217 bdy sktrn on 11.30.15 at 5:45 pm

The 1% laugh while you’re out changing the world…
—————
+1

I’m starting a ‘green’ business, energy audits for homeowners.
May as well bleed the willing.
You add insulation and replace your windows and i’ll take an extra trip to hawaii.

#218 Armando on 11.30.15 at 6:03 pm

At the risk of being accused by Garth of being an effeminate doomer who hates dogs, I will point out that determining the economy is “healthy” using employment stats is like driving a car looking backwards. Employment is the most LAGGING of indicators and tells you nothing of where the economy is now, or is headed in the future. In fact, the unemployment rate is usually at its trough just as the economy is at its peak (of course, this is only clear in hindsight). Just take a look the stats in 2000 and 2007….

#219 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.30.15 at 8:57 pm

@#195 Bottoms Up.
“Would you move there if all energy had to come from renewable sources? Do you believe that would be a worthwhile approach?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
No. Too expensive and the pollution caused by all those rockets blasting off into space would make life ever worse here. But Elon Musk is gonna give it a go!

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjMydb9uLnJAhXQO4gKHQuUClwQFggrMAM&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.businessinsider.com%2Felon-musk-says-dropping-nuclear-bombs-on-mars-would-make-it-livable-2015-9&usg=AFQjCNGXoeSU_IaklGclbI1JwFsavSM2ow&sig2=eC_s1c0M0TQZ3_bLhg4gfQ&bvm=bv.108194040,d.cGU

Imagine. Tomatos that glow in the dark on the Red Planet.

Personally I think overpopulation is the #1 planet killer. The solution?
Forced vasectomies a la India ……….

https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=5&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwje_Nr1ubnJAhXJpYgKHQuTDhQQFghEMAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.pop.org%2Fcontent%2Fonce-and-future-tragedy-india%25E2%2580%2599s-sterilization-campaign-39-years-later&usg=AFQjCNFzKjKfBcW2H4pg6aKu13C9BRba4Q&sig2=p-yIFJxK0hXC_1S28ME3uA&bvm=bv.108194040,d.cGU

and or spike all the cheap beer in all 1st world countries with sterility drugs and that should take care of most of the rednecks like me……100 years from now the planet will have half the people and hopefully they will be a tad smarter.

#220 The Rt. Hon. whatsisname on 12.01.15 at 2:42 am

“Craig Alexander is a smart, reasonable fellow who impressed me when he was a big cheese economist at TD Bank. These days he’s helping run the CD Howe Institute, and his conclusion is that by increasing rich guy taxes Ottawa will actually erode the overall tax base – a phenon many other jurisdictions have seen develop. The extra tax burden will trigger more tax avoidance activity and result in the 240,000 people reporting about 5% less in taxable income than they do now. That will strip $7.3 billion from the tax base, and the Libs will end up with 70% less than they claimed. Worse, this decline in the tax base will cost the provinces about $1.4 billion in revenue.”

Friends, let me be clear. All of the increased tax avoidance predicted by some, and the emigration of rich people predicted by others is only going to be a reversal of the wonderful things that happened under the Harper government. Did we not lower taxes? Friends, we did — we helped out Canadian families who work hard and play by the rules. And in turn, fewer of them used tax avoidance strategies, and we had an influx of millionaires. My opponent’s policies will of course reverse this, and we’ll end up where we started before I cut the GST. Friends, you probably don’t recognize Canada now that I’m done with it, but you’ll probably recognize it again in about five years.

#221 CHERRY BLOSOM on 12.01.15 at 8:44 am

Why does the government end more and more and more money from us. Could it be union labour that does not do a good job. I have seen bridges in Prague that are hundreds of years old and will last another hundred years. Our infrastructure collapses after 40 years. Could it be that we have overpopulation. We bring in 80,000 immigrants and 9000 refugees a year and now 25000 refugees. We have homeless everywhere and food baks and everyone has there hand out for a donation. The government engages in behaviour modification, i.e. if we behave this way or that as long as it is something that the government wants up to do then the government will give us a tax break for this or that . Like training a pigeon.
We are all so sick of politicians.
And just go to Los Angeles for a while and you will see the brains that have been drained from Canada. This Country is collapsing from within. I think there is a term in physics for this. Imploding! I AM NOT PROUD TO BE A CANADIAN ANYMORE. A country where we have to whisper our thoughts. We son’t even have free speech anymore. May God and Allah help us.

#222 turn of the tide on 12.01.15 at 1:26 pm

Get a grip.

I am sorry but all the comments about “moving south” and “I am not proud of being Canadian”….

I am going to bet a gazillion dollars that you have not a clue of what life actually is outside of Canada. Maybe you had a vacation abroad but certainly no experience actually making a living abroad for any length of time.

You should all be counting your blessings every single day that you can live in Canada.

Makes me sick to hear this whining. What are YOU doing to make Canada better then? Just complaining about your first world problems make you look like spoiled brats! There may be issues but Canada is still amazing.

But maybe you’re right, perhaps Canada would be better off with you folks elsewhere. God speed.