You might be interested in some of the stories that the Great Fool real estate Investigative Unit is working on. By the way, this site has applied to the new T2 government for one of those Climate Change grants since it reaches more people than most dailies, killing not a single tree in doing so. After all, if Canada can donate $2.6 billion to ‘developing’ countries to cut their carbon footprint, surely a homeless, vulnerable, pathetic blog is deserving. Once this money flows in, every reader here will get a free puppy. However, you must name him “Justin”, and provide a selfie.
Hot Canadian Money
While YVRers moan and grouse over non-locals buying their precious houses and (they believe) forcing prices higher, others have a different message for foreign purchasers: bring it on! This is especially poignant when it comes to HCM – Hot Canadian Money – and the impact it has on a regional market like Arizona.
It turns out nobody is more unhappy with a 75-cent Canadian dolarette than the people who’ve come to depend on the steady stream of cash flowing south and snapping up desert properties. Sales of Arizona houses to Canadians have plunged by a staggering 50% in 2015 – the result of our currency devaluation, and also the plop in commodity prices.
“Alberta is an oil-rich province in Canada,” realtor Lauire Lavine told the local media. “We’ve had many Albertans buying property, but that is when oil was $100 -$90 a barrel, but with it being at $40 right now, it’s meant a lot of layoffs and job uncertainty. People are holding off on making major purchases.”
AZ realtors have also seen a flood of Canadian owners bailing out of their American properties – not only to improve their financial picture, but also to profit from the exchange rate on any gains they may have made. Makes you wonder if they know about the Foreign Investment in Real Property Tax Act and the 10% withholding tax on sale proceeds.
Oh well. At least somebody’s rooting for Alberta.
Bad, bad bank.
Turns out the Bank of Canada was as dumb as suggested here when it cut interest rates last winter. The impact on an economy reeling from crashing oil was, well, zilch. The impact on real estate prices and household debt was something else entirely. More proof that if you make debt cheap enough, Canadians will snorfle themselves to death.
Housing analyst Ross Kay has released an analysis into the impact of that surprising and unexpected quarter-point drop. “Immediately following the rate cut Canada’s housing market, which had begun to contract in December of 2014, changed direction and accelerated,” he says. “The damage done since then has been substantial. Since that time the BoC has issued warnings of overvaluation which are now echoed by CMHC.”
Kay claims, for example, that BC’s housing market had stalled last January after 19 months of expansion, only to be excited to a new level of horniness (still ongoing) after the central bank panicked and dropped its rate. And in Ontario: “the acceleration was so rapid that in the four short months after the rate cut took place activity levels surpassed everything that had gone on since the fall of 2012.”
Some people believe the central bank will again trim its key rate in 2016, even as the US Fed is raising theirs. Arizona realtors won’t know what hit them.
The merchants of Debt
As you’re aware, without a 20% down payment a homebuyer has to obtain mortgage insurance and pay a big premium (most people add it to the borrowing). The insurance protects the lender, not the borrower, in the event he defaults. Happily not many people do this, and CMHC just reported that its payouts on defaults have gone down in the past year. Walking away from debt ain’t a Canadian thing. At least not yet.
But in pouring over the government agency’s docs, one of our highly-trained forensic investigators (a beagle by trade) sniffed out an interesting summary of recent activity. It’s the loan-to-value ratios for loans insured during the first nine months of the year. This is worth knowing: 70% of homeowners borrowed 90% to 95% of the value of their homes. In fact, the average LTV ratio is 92% among these borrowers meaning the average equity they possess is just 8%. Imagine what happens when rates go up.
We are so screwed. But enjoy your weekend.
210 comments ↓
Yet people have the audacity to troll me for calling CMHC mortgage insurance “subprime”.
Sheesh….
92% LTV the average insured mortgage loan. No wonder why risk premia is rising on residential mortgages. Especially with “Justin” running around being a socialist. The banks simply are losing faith in the government’s willingness to sign the multi-billion dollar bailout cheques the CMHC is almost certain to require going forward.
BOC should cuts rates again, maybe even TWICE in 2016.
To totally ensure the rapt attention of, and heedless speculation of the Canadian Home buying public, why be over indebted, when you can be totally submerged!!
Why bother with a Recession, when T2 could ensure his adoring fans can go directly to a Depression!
It gets rid of the following pesky Vermin:
1. Credit Card DEBTS
2. Car Payments
3. Mortgage Payments
4. HELOCS
5. Family
Wait! There’s More…. cheaper money allows better foreign investment. Oh, yeah… forget that.. Never mind
What is percentage of all mortgages outstanding are insured by CMHC?
The table presents only those mortgages insured by CMHC which have less than 20 percent down so the stats are not surprising.
We are not screwed , l have straight from a secret source
(Justine ) no last name to hide his identity .
Budgets balance them selves. Ssshhhhh under your hat ok.
By that chart it means 70% of homeowners are underwater the day they sign the mortgage. 92% loan 5% realtor fee to sell and the cost of chic insurance, legal etc.
I would be interested in the puppy offer. I will even make their official name Justin. But probably we will just call them Snorfle.
Garth, Garth, Garth, you are so naïve. Don’t go begging for government handouts, you dummy.
Do what we did. Sell a lot of shares to greater fools. Then lay off all your Amazons and paid trolls, scoop yourself some tidy bonus money while nobody is looking and the whole thing is crashing down, and blame the Liberals for the bad economy that made you do it all, everyday in your headlines. Then stand with a straight face and tell us why the left is wrong and corporate capitalism is our only hope.
It’s so much fun!
And here I thought you were a modern conservative..? Sheesh, do we have to spell everything out for you?
“Pathetic” is right……
YVR and YYZ. Where real estate prices continue to insanely increase unabated across the sales mix.
China is a mess – the commodities supercycle is over. The U.S. continues to encourage war from behind the curtain. Canada is getting a reality check on appropriate value. The European Union is in the process of collapse. And my dog well he doesn’t seem to have a care in the world
Mr Turner,
Following yesterdays blog regarding diversification outside of Canada, I would like to suggest that you consider doing a blog clarifying how CRA deals with Canadian resident taxation on foreign investments.
For example, how are foreign dividends taxed as compared to Canadian ones?
And how is foreign fixed income (bonds, etc.) taxed?
And capital gains?
Also, most people don’t realize that they can invest in many foreign bonds, etfs, stocks, etc. through their Canadian brokerage. That’s worth exploring too.
Just a thought….it might help get the diversification message out if people know how CRA handles things.
he he he…
This is worth knowing: 70% of homeowners borrowed 90% to 95% of the value of their homes. In fact, the average LTV ratio is 92% among these borrowers meaning the average equity they possess is just 8%. Imagine what happens when rates go up.
..so Gartho baby… do you still think our banking system is safe ?
..good.. cause i ve just started shorting the crap out of them
Kay is a good guy !
..I m drooling.. when the bond market starts moving the other way.. oh my…
some of us will be making like thieves…
While YVRers moan and grouse over non-locals buying their precious houses and (they believe) forcing prices higher, others have a different message for foreign purchasers: bring it on!
At the risk of sounding repetitive, I believe we should market aggressively to foreigners and sell as many boxes as possible. Massive transfer of Wealth to Canadians.
Selling Nexen and other commodity assets at their top was a great move, and selling RE at these absurd levels will be another great coup.
_____________________________________
Central Banks are not only dumb, but full of hubris, to think that such blunt tools as they use can ever manage large, intricate economies.
..so.. my lil fcst for 1-3 years
scotia ll be first to go
then the suckers from BMO
..then either TD or CIBC
CMHC says that “The mortgage default rate is still very low, even in Alberta”
Meanwhile, the Calgary food bank reports that it’s feeding 10 000 more people per month, with about half of those being children.
Keep making those mortgage payments, though.
I know some boomers who are staying home this winter. They can’t afford to go south, especially with health insurance rates so high.
First time in years they had to buy a shovel.
Retiring with a mortgage is a bitch.
#2
I agree with you. They will cut rates- the knee jerk reaction against disasters.
I don t think they ll have time for a second rate cut since Mr Market will fist the pieces of crap immediately.. then good olț kkdian establishment will panic because of the looniețs rate of fall.
Then theyțll raise rates into stratosphere just to preven loonie to go below 35c
..so.. either bankrupt Canada or bankrupt 70+% of its moronic citizens…. kinda amount to the same thing… screwed if you do it…screwed if you don t
US/CAN forex traders will never have it easier… and better
.. for some sickko reason i fiind shorting so much more rewarding. punishies the idiots in mass…and rewards onețs ability to see clearly through the smoke and mirrors of the establisment and the make believe of the fellow man
“….nobody is more unhappy with a 75-cent Canadian dolarette than the people who’ve come to depend on the steady stream of cash flowing south and snapping up desert properties……..AZ realtors have also seen a flood of Canadian owners bailing out of their American properties……..”
_________________________
Perhaps we can divert some of that $2.6 billion development money toward an Arizonian “Save a REALTURD® Fund”.
On second thought, let them find real jobs while letting the balance of Arizonians celebrate continued housing affordability.
What I don’t get is why we claim houses are over-priced when we are the ones largely controlling the price? We are still giving people mortgages based on the price of the house and not what we estimate as its value. It’s like no one understands or cares what’s going on in this corporation. It’s corporate cognitive dissonance.
CMHC
#14
Keep making those mortgage payments, though.
…FOR NOW..
..we are in that movie with the coyote hanging on a thread and the fingers going one by one,,,
#7 Postmedia Executive on 11.27.15 at 6:49 pm
_________________________
Love your sarcasm.
I agree, PostMedia (National Post & SunMedia) have become such a bunch of ideo-illogical sore losers, I had to block their daily whining from my smartphone.
The chart of the $CAD is interesting.
We’ve gone through the lows that served as major support in 2008 around 78-80 cents. The $CAD chart looks like it’s setting up to slice right through 70 cents into major support at around 62-64 cents last observed in 2002. There is some support at 70 cents but this could be temporary depending on major government policy moves on both sides of the border (ie. the BOC easing while the FED tightens). Regardless, the long term trend is clearly down. ETF holdings should be non-hedged and exposed to $US. My Canadian holdings = $0 (zero).
What’s interesting is oil in the $40s is not that cheap historically speaking, yet the $CAD is significantly lower today than other periods in history when oil was trading at current prices.
The currency market is suggesting something else is going on with the $CAD (i.e. a deteriorating Canadian economy, significant demographic headwinds, an extremely indebted Canadian consumer and the potential effects of housing bubble unwinding).
How would the Canadian banks hold up in the event of a severe 10 year housing correction?
How come all I ever hear from international commentators, banks, the IMF, in fact everyone except Bank of Canada and CMHC is that the CDN economy is screwed and the dollar is going down along with house prices and yet… and yet… the dollar has been stable for weeks and house prices just keep going up. Are we the eternal flying engine of the world economy, or what?
People are broke in Canada, lots of lovely homes, but broke. No one can buy anything without 0% financing.
Look at the malls, loads of half conscious consumers shuffling their bloated overweight bodies around buying useless crap they don’t need on credit.
The trades I work with, all charging triple what they normally would, because they are so busy and can’t do anymore work, and people pay it.
So we have a population of chubby, ignorant Canadians, who are overpaying 300%+ for anything to do with housing, using borrowed money to finance it, and think they will be rich because real estate always goes up.
It truly is a bad situation when we have had so much construction in the last two decades and much of it has been based on outdated techniques.
Since the 1970s, Canadians paid for research into how to build proper homes….the R2000 standard.
What was learnt and how to properly build for Canadian climate was sadly wasted. I wonder how many new home purchasers in the last 15 years knew of what R2000 was?
Had ALL homes built since say 1990 been of the R2000 standard, the carbon footprint of the typical home would be much much smaller. Outside of the automobile and cooking, where is much of the energy used and carbon produced. Our buildings. Even for cooking now, there should be rebates for all induction cooktops ..but guess what? It is very hard to even find cooking utensils that can use induction cooktops. These things will save more energy than changing lights from bulbs to LED and they will also bring DOWN the peak requirements as well.
If we as a nation had the guts to say that by 2000, ALL homes had to meet the R2000 standard, we would be in a lot better shape today.
Outlaw large SUVs. The larger SUV spiral game needs to stop. Everyone wants a BIGGER one to feel safer. Sheer herd stupidity. Place a severe TAX on those vehicles greater than 2 liters to fund your green 2.6 billion. With the technologies we have today there really is NO need for anything greater than 2 liters. Really.
The proper way to capture carbon dioxide is to have trees. However, one of the first thing a certain ethnic group to whom I belong does to a wooded lot or a tree on their property is to cut it down because of Feng Shui. So many people just do not understand the energy cycle.
It is so disgusting to have the government give / credits to homeowners whose homes were constructed when proper energy efficiency technologies were available, and affordable but NOT implemented due to OUT OF DATE building codes. Government is the problem. Everyone knows it is cheaper and better to do it properly the first time rather than a half baked retrofit years alter.
Give people CHEAP homes rather than proper homes per government.
Does it cost a lot more to build an R2000 home? I don’t think it should if everyone was trained how to do it.
Take the 2.6 billion and train ALL trades on proper methods of construction. In fact, take a fraction of that and we could reduce our carbon footprint. Now that we are being taxed for carbon consumption and then giving money away to folks who will stop using wood and start using electricity for cooking for carbon foot print.
Take the Caribbean for example. In developed islands AND undeveloped, everyone constructs brick homes using NO insulation or regard to energy efficiency and then straps on a bunch of air conditioners. Why am I contributing money that kind of stupidity. It is not just there but all over the world like China as well. No thought of energy efficiency but make me pay for their stupidity. I suspect that a large part of coal consumption in China goes to power those AC units in so many buildings.
Justin, if you really want to show leadership get a set and implement immediately all the energy standards sitting on the shelf. Then you show the world how it is done. Giving money does not solve the problem. Scientists and engineers know how to reduce carbon. Government MUST force the use of these technologies. Why are we allowing builders to deliver homes TODAY that are woefully outdated with respect to carbon. Makes no sense and these homes CANNOT be “fixed” properly ever and they will be around for at least 50 years.
The truth is governments and politicians don’t have a clue and they pander to popular notions of being green.
The truly rotten thing about all this is I’m seriously going to miss Hillary (i.e. dog-loving HGTV-Hillary, not next-president Hillary).
http://hilaryfarr.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/11069266_774761989276183_7447138162118189508_n.jpg
Crossing the border into the USA today the officer had so much time on his hands due to hardly any traffic, he
commented…
“Well the Canadian shopper has stopped coming except for your border types. Thank god the US car guys are importing so many Canadian used cars daily to keep us busy.”
I told him you ain’t seen nothing yet…smile exchanged.
Gartho baby.. if money printing and financial engineering would ve been successful EVER… then the COMUNISM not the cripto socialcapitalism would ve won the “”cold war”””
Unfortunately none in the “”west”” learned this lesson.
In the 80s all the eastern block was printing like crazy and everybody started buyin the houses-the meager appartment buildings done for the “”working class””
Deja vu baby. The hubris of the “”west”” is that it has such a good opinion about itself :)
Back in the 90s when I’ve seen Olympia and York bail aut (ok..that one was “”the lobby””) and the LTCM down South..i told to myself.. “CRAP!!! nowhere to go now! commies keep comin’back””
.. which was naive of course since it has nothing to do with any “”ïsm”” but rather with the preservation of the “”social order””
… short the crap and buy a big boat :) go see tza islands man.. Watch the Investments grow from afar :)
..and pray the stupidity of the masses and the ineptitude of their leaders for THOSE my friends ..will be /are the ones that make you rich/confortable/free of debt/whatever
2016-2018 will be probably the most exciting years of my life…”‘fall of communism”” show included
Wynne is now going to make it mandatory for seller to get an energy audit before you can list your house for sale.
They need to train and hire nineteen hundred people.
I guess we are screwed!!
Yes. I have been saying here that I believe our central bank will lower again. My U.S.$ exposure is underweight at only 10% right now, as I said here before, however, I sold off an additional 17% U.S. exposure before the Markets dropped off in my re-balancing. I have shared here the R.E.I.T.’s , Preferred’s, and oil ETF’s I bought when I bought them, at bargain prices ,and also shared here exactly when I sold oil at $140/barrel before. I bought the Preferred’s just days before Garth recommended them, and the R.E.I.T.’s right when Garth said “buy”. I am happy with my income streams, liquidity, balance, diversity, cash flow, cash on hand, and 0 debt position.
I recently asked here about whether it was time to buy the ETF VXC, 50% U.S. and 50% International, 0% Canadian. I decided to watch and wait. I believe the U.S. market will have a bigger dump yet. Not expecting a GFC type crash, but I want more appealing valuations. There is a lot to be said for never having to sell anything, as well as never having to buy anything. It’s like when I bought my properties, They were too cheap and too nice to say no. However, when it comes to taking a profit, I can sell in a minute, and I never worry about trying to hit the absolute bottoms, or the absolute tops. No fear and no greed. I never put myself in a position to lose my nutz. That’s just plain stupid.
BoC will cut again; then will have to play catch-up with the US later after our peso tanks. Meanwhile junior blows billions on trendy projects to make himself look good to the international community. We are really hooped. Good thing we have our houses.
WOOHOOO!!!
I’m sitting on a load of USD! Come on canada, you can cut your rates.. do it for me!
50c dollar here we come!
Turns out the Bank of Canada was as dumb as suggested here when it cut interest rates last winter. The impact on an economy reeling from crashing oil was, well, zilch. The impact on real estate prices and household debt was something else entirely.
the Bank of Canada is not there to be dumb
http://www.bankofcanada.ca
CEO 2015 Checklist – Part 2
______________________
1. Prepare statement to media explaining quarterly and annual loss.
2. Announce layoff of more staff. Prepare statement thanking them for all their efforts over the years.
3. Contact Personnel and arrange for annual bonus to be direct deposited into investment account.
4. Setup meeting with KPMG rep. Check for any fallout with CRA.
5. Have nanny take Hummer for oil and filter change.
6. Check on availability of corporate jet for vacation in Bahamas in January.
7. Look at possible merger with ___
8. Set up meeting with Board to discuss compensation package for 2016 – stock options, performance bonus, efficiency metrics etc.
9. Renew rental of corporate VIP suite at Air Canada Centre.
10. Send essay to Terence Corcoran extolling the virtues of the TPP and commending him on his global warming reality check.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/kpmg-tax-evasion-charges-1.3339719
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/postmedia-executive-bonuses-paul-godfrey-1.3339702
#21 Caught In The Grip on 11.27.15 at 7:14 pm
“What’s interesting is oil in the $40s is not that cheap historically speaking,”
Yeah, good point!
I was surprised by this.
Even adjusted for inflation, that $40 is actually not that bad.
http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart
13 week US Treasury Bill yields are spiking up, signaling a December hike.
It appears that the “Garth Turner was right” meme may be in play for 2016:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^IRX+Basic+Chart&t=my#{%22allowChartStacking%22:true}
=D
“How come all I ever hear from international commentators, banks, the IMF, in fact everyone except Bank of Canada and CMHC is that the CDN economy is screwed and the dollar is going down along with house prices and yet… and yet… the dollar has been stable for weeks and house prices just keep going up”
House prices haven’t gone up in Canada for over two years now. What you’ve been seeing (and this also happened in the USA circa 2006-2008) was the sales mix changing quite significantly to push up the transactional averages.
The deflationary pressures from the falling Canadian RE market have prevented much, much worse carnage in the CAD$ as domestic demand has been significantly truncated on account of falling RE prices, shrinking lines of credit, etc.
How would the Canadian banks hold up in the event of a severe 10 year housing correction?
The future of Canada’s banks largely hinges on what the CMHC does when its confronted with hundreds of billions worth of insured loans going bad and their paltry capital exhausted.
If the government coughs up money for a CMHC bailout, then the banks will likely take their money and re-invest it elsewhere (probably into re-leveraging Canada’s industrial base). If the government fails to bail the CMHC out, then the Canadian economy is likely headed for a systemic crisis.
What will probably happen will be somewhere inbetween. The CMHC probably will be bailed out, but taxes will be raised on the banking sector to pay for the bailouts. If the 1990s are any sort of model, some dormant countercyclical sector will rise out of the ashes and lead the economy out of the mess. Its my contention that such sector is likely to be the gold mining sector. Simply because its been in such a significant long-term state of malaise (minimal returns since the early 1980s) yet historically has been known to respond well to strong deflation (monetary instability) in the global economy.
“70% of homeowners borrowed 90% to 95% of the value of their homes. In fact, the average LTV ratio is 92% among these borrowers meaning the average equity they possess is just 8%. Imagine what happens when rates go up.”
Beagle might need to check his nose because that number is meaningless, because:
1. The owner have either over 20% or less than 20%. Most but not all of property with more than 20% downpayment are not being insured.
2. Average detached in Vancouver is over 1M and yet CMHC does not insure property with over 1M and most if not all of them have a significantly higher downpayment.
3. CMHC have less than 40% market share.
In summary all that chart means is:
if your property is less than a million AND you fall in the 40% market share of CMHC AND have less than 20% downpayment then most like you are putting a 8% downpayment.
Doesn’t really say anything about YVR detached places nor anyone who has more than 20% down. Love to see a stat of how many people have more or less than 20% downpayment!!!
“After all, if Canada can donate $2.6 billion to ‘developing’ countries to cut their carbon footprint”
——————-
Garth, seeing that you were once employed by the outfit you know how this really works. I’m sure you do not want to mislead your highly volatile and excitable followers. So let me help you out.
1) The “developing” countries do not get a penny until they submit a thoroughly vetted proposal for a project of sorts;
2) If and when the project is accepted by Canada an account with the approved funds is set up in Canada and a Canadian fund manager is appointed;
3) The “Developing Country” can then use the funds to obtain CANADIAN GOODS AND SERVICES for the execution of their project.
So, the money is spend, but it is mostly spend in Canada – contributing to the economic well being of Canadians. We’re not completely pissing the money away…
Big Dipper -““How would you describe the NDP”
——
Social Democrats. Mildly left of centre folks trying to fix the economic and environmental harm done by years of neo-con failed experimentation.”. First of all, what do you have against socialists? Do you not respect the fact that Bernie Sanders in the USA and the NDP here in Canada proudly describe themselves as such?
Second, what is up with the ‘folks’ crap, I think you have a touch of Obamaitis.
Good grief…
The stats are meaningless unless they represent the entire market.
They could be a measly fifth of the market only taking into account those buyers that wanted/needed insurance therefor they HAD TO put less than 20% down.
So LTV of 92% is no surprise.
Did you know that more than half of CDN homes have no mortgage. Etc., Etc.
Lets at least try to keep a semblance of balance here.
Lots of panicked justifying tonight. Fact is large mumbers of people don’t have enough equity to survive even a modest correction. That could have consequences for all. Should be obvious. — Garth
The preferred share market here in Canada is starting to quiver a bit. It feels like a 20 % chance of a rate cut here in Canada coming up. I love this sector of the market due to the arbitrage opportunities available to the common investor and constant miss-pricing. I assume this is because of the nature of the vehicle itself being income oriented to the common purchaser, rather than capital appreciation and this provides opportunity. Also, it is kind of hard to analyze these things without some deep thought and study. I would not recommend buying individual preferred shares for investors but rather the ETF’s. The time has come again to start staging into these preferreds and looking back a year or so from now the highest total return will most likely be from ZPR then CPD then XPF in that order but you should actually purchase XPF for the greatest risk adjusted return and may actually outperform CPD on a total return basis due to the US exposure.
#34 Bram on 11.27.15 at 7:43 pm
#21 Caught In The Grip on 11.27.15 at 7:14 pm
“What’s interesting is oil in the $40s is not that cheap historically speaking,”
Yeah, good point!
I was surprised by this.
Even adjusted for inflation, that $40 is actually not that bad.
http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart
—————–
The scale of that chart is not linear, it’s logarithmic…
Un-tick “log scale” on that chart and take another look.
#28 paul on 11.27.15 at 7:23 pm
Wynne is now going to make it mandatory for seller to get an energy audit before you can list your house for sale.
They need to train and hire nineteen hundred people.
I guess we are screwed!!
…..
To bad there is no sanity audit for anyone running for office.
If there was, we would not have any liberals or dippers.
33 BC Guy on 11.27.15 at 7:39 pm
_________________________
Priceless.
T2 could “suggest” a change in housing assistance. Anytime the home ownership rate exceeds 65% CHMC becomes non-involved.
Buyers will HAVE to meet the qualifying credentials of commercial lenders. No (public) i.e. read: Government Support.
If Canadians really treasure the idea of home ownership, well then, let us have the newest buyers, or buyer upgrades meet the “new” standards of commercial lenders.
After all, is that NOT what a free market is supposed to consist?
Annoying rebuttals directed to blog owner, please.
(see what a couple of stiff Brandies can create)
#4 Paul on 11.27.15 at 6:39 pm
We are not screwed , l have straight from a secret source
(Justine ) no last name to hide his identity .
Budgets balance them selves. Ssshhhhh under your hat ok.
————-
LOL! Thanks for the chuckle
Maybe if you drive a TD24 or D9 on the scale opposite of the debt end…
#24 Fan of Energy Efficiency on 11.27.15 at 7:22 pm
I agree with much of what you say about energy efficiency. I hate waste, in whatever form.
The place where we part ways is in your mixing CO2 into the energy efficiency thing. CO2 has nothing whatsoever to do with energy efficiency. Or pollution for that matter. The entanglement of CO2 into the pollution/energy efficiency debate wass only achieved at great propaganda cost by the Climate Change Machine.
It was necessary for them to create this false narrative and entanglement as a means to create an additional sin tax (ie carbon tax), which you promote in your comments.
For clarity, I’m OK with assigning a “social cost” to carbon, as long as there is a “social benefit” assigned as well. Several researchers have done these types of calculations and found that the social benefits of carbon outweigh the social costs by 100X. In contrast, windmills are unable to even generate enough power to replace themselves over their lifespan. Wind power is like sitting at the blackjack table in Vegas; play long enough and your guaranteed to lose it all.
Look at the behavior of the Climate Machine elites. People like Al Gore or many of the 20,000 Climate Elites about to descend on Paris (on your dime, of course) enjoy a lavish lifestyle with several houses, private jets etc. To them, the benefits of carbon are blatantly and hypocritically apparent. They just want everyone else to stop using it, make billions off of everyone while they stop using fossil fuels, but they’ll be damned if they’ll stop themselves.
The harsh reality is that access to cheap and abundant energy has lifted billions of people out of poverty, increased their lifespans and increased their quality of life. The Climate Machine, with it’s sin taxes will reverse this trend towards a better life for billions of people . Nothing to be proud of in that.
A lot of Albertan’s loved Arizona, especially Phoenix, lots of daily flights there. Any time off I wanted to play in the snow in the mountains, met a few who felt the same as me. Most Albertan’s could not comprehend what a great winter wonderland they lived nearby to.
Has anyone else heard of the one buyer who purchased 100 condos in the yet to be started Burrard Place project in Vancouver?
“First of all, what do you have against socialists? Do you not respect the fact that Bernie Sanders in the USA and the NDP here in Canada proudly describe themselves as such?
Second, what is up with the ‘folks’ crap, I think you have a touch of Obamaitis.”
——————————————
“Socialist” is a misused term, used by mostly neo-cons and their ilk, to inflame ignorant folks like you.
Yes, I got a bad case of that, but you have a much more serious affliction.
#1 Mark
A high ratio mortgage can be had for 2.44 % for a locked in 5 year term. There are no additional costs aside from CMHC insurance and banks are begging people to take out mortgages. Where is the evidence of the “risk premia ” or reluctance on the part of banks to approve mortgages? Your logic is clear but the banks aren’t applying it. Houses are being bought and sold every day, despite the dire warnings on this blog and so far the sky hasn’t fallen.
#28 Paul
Are you serious about the energy audit? I know any contractor has to be fully insured now if they lift a hammer in Ontario yet if you climb up a ladder (like yesterday’s
photo) to do gutters, clean eaves/windows you don’t.
Yet.
For Smoking Man: You said we need a Putin. Considered in the abstract, the tiger riding bare chested, don’t tell me what to do, tonight we drink and tomorrow we die leader has some appeal. He’d be fun at a BBQ for sure. Problem is that in order to get a Putin, you have to have a Marx, Lenin, Stalin….famine in the Ukraine (or equivalent) the gulag…Chernobyl (although from an engineering perspective the containment was a marvel)…you get the picture. No Putin please.
#51 correction..
WSIB for working for any corps like a condo development.
Climate change – well, just shut up and do it already.
Every province has a half baked scheme now, Justin is crowing it at every opportunity and we still have to help those unfortunate enough to be able to do anything about. That 2.6B will be flushed down a spiral of corruption in the countries we give it to.
But hey, whatever, do it an be done already. Now you can defend canada from the US and Europe and whatever 3rd world back water that wants to challenge us. Look we did something, see, now get out of our face. Oh yeah, and buy our wood, wheat and oil, now.
#37Big Dipper
Thanks for your explInation, very helpful.
Climate Hustle.
2.5 Billion tossed out the window. Yes, there is a Santa. His name Justin Trudeau. about 800 dollars for every man woman and child in Canada.
Guess where it’s going, to the IMF, to be held in South Korea. You know where all those ugly wind farms came from.
500 delegates will party like it’s no tomorrow in Paris next week. Yes we are paying for there fun.
You climate nazis, this war……
The good stuff starts at the ten minute mark.
http://www.therebel.media/climate_change_realists_fight_back
Ezra hits one out of the park
http://www.therebel.media/_7000_birks_brooch_proves_trudeaus
#15 rower on 11.27.15 at 7:02 pm
“Retiring with a mortgage is a bitch.”
Not if it’s tax deductible and you have the assets to “retire” the mortgage anytime you want. And at 2% why would you? Particularly if your investments are averaging over 9% over the past few years?
Stop the Carbon Tax
http://www.therebel.media/stopthecarbontax
Liberals
Soldiers and military personnel at a Kingston, Ont. base are being asked to clear their barracks to make room for an early wave of Syrian refugees arriving in just over a week, CTV News has learned.
Multiple residences at CFB Kingston are being cleared for Nov. 30 to house the refugees, according to an internal memo obtained by CTV News.
The orders will also affect some officer cadets attending the Royal Military College, many of whom are nearing exams.
And while the memo warns of the fast-approaching deadline, it does not indicate where military personnel will be resettled. However, it does say a place will be found for the personnel.
The notice comes just two days after Minister of Immigration and Refugees John McCallum reaffirmed the government’s plan to resettle 25,000 Syrian refugees by the end of 2015.
#1 Mark on 11.27.15 at 6:06 pm
———————————
“Subprime” means one thing: a less than prime borrower.
A borrower is a person; cmhc is not a person.
#48 Basil Fawlty on 11.27.15 at 8:31 pm
Has anyone else heard of the one buyer who purchased 100 condos in the yet to be started Burrard Place project in Vancouver?
———————————————————
No. Please tell us more.
#57 Smoking Man on 11.27.15 at 9:34 pm
————————–
What’s your point? Trump has his own 757, valued at $100 million.
Related to earlier discussions on this blog, Margaret Wente wrote the following opinion piece in today’s Globe.
I agree with her assessment.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/whats-the-matter-with-belgium/article27508948/
AZ realtors have also seen a flood of Canadian owners bailing out of their American properties.
Hey Garth, could you tell me where this information can be found? I would like to read about it. Thanks!
That dog is a rip off. This blog seems to provide psychiatric help to many in need for free.
Never mind. I found it. Cool.
Re:
For example, how are foreign dividends taxed as compared to Canadian ones?
And how is foreign fixed income (bonds, etc.) taxed?
And capital gains?
As I understand it you will take a tax hit if you hold foreign securities outside of an RRSP—so much for holding a big percentage of your portfolio in US stocks. I’ve loaded up on them in my RRSP, but in my cash account I’m almost forced to buy Canadian stocks because of the tax hit, right Garth?
Hardly. — Garth
RE”Yes, I got a bad case of that, but you have a much more serious affliction.”
That’s because most Con supporters are not well read or well-informed. They think mainly in narrow economic terms. They don’t even realize that in both Canada and the states, the economy has actually done better with Liberal and Democractic governments. Look at what a terrible job Harper did in managing the economy.
DELETED
#121 Frank on 11.27.15 at 1:33 am
Between Victoria Housing and Brian Ripley I’m not sure whose charts are worse. The former are shitty ASCII and the latter are so packed they’re unreadable…”
Have to agree on this, if the Victoria RE guy would spend 5 minutes learning how to plot a chart(out of the thousands of hours spent on RE analysis) his street-cred would spike for sure
And our stock market isn’t looking healthy, which means portfolios are looking sad (canadians put 90% of their investments in the TSX). Will hit consumer sentiment, if it hasn’t already.
All my uncles thought oil was going back to 70$ six months after the crash. Now the reality sets in and their investments are looking less glorious. Bad timing, as canadians are retiring faster (boomers).
Put your paychecks in the SP500 with XSP, or europe with ZEQ, or both. Otherwise if we have a housing slump, you can be sure wall street will pay for a short Canada campaign and get people selling.
The CIA run this outfit and that is only a interpretation.
#52 mousy on 11.27.15 at 8:55 pm
For Smoking Man: You said we need a Putin. Considered in the abstract, the tiger riding bare chested, don’t tell me what to do, tonight we drink and tomorrow we die leader has some appeal. He’d be fun at a BBQ for sure. Problem is that in order to get a Putin, you have to have a Marx, Lenin, Stalin….famine in the Ukraine (or equivalent) the gulag…Chernobyl (although from an engineering perspective the containment was a marvel)…you get the picture. No Putin please.”
I’d much rather spend an evening arm wrestling and polishing off a bottle of single malt with the Hemingwayesque Putin, than with JT, where the conversation would mostly be about hairspray and environmental issues…I think I know where Garth would choose to be as well…..
At least with Just-in True-dough, he will be honest when they are going to legislate a tax to pay out all the CMHC delinquent loans in about 18 months. If commie steve had of still been dicktater it would have been packs of lies and a media blackout with payoffs to his closest friends.
Canucks used to never walk away from a mortgage, this time will be different. Not even the bank of mom and dad will have any reserves left to cover their little darlings ass. Banks will be worried soon.
I hate..
I’m a hater…
I hate with every fiber of my being, those bastards who run the old spice commercials.
I’m sitting here minding my own business, enjoying a nice wine, thinking about some smart ass thing to share with all of you pricks.. wife is watching tv..
Old spice commercial comes on…she’s glued to the tv..I’m watching her, she gets flustered, and giggly..
Turns to me and says time for bed big boy..
From 16 to about 50 years old I was cool..
Now.
Its just like a job now…damn..
Good night, wish me luck, I’ll need it..
#64 Big Dipper on 11.27.15 at 9:58 pm
Scary. Thanks for that link. Big problems ahead.
MF
Justin is showing so much love to everyone in the whole world! I hope he doesn’t pull a Bill Clinton somewhere along the line.
I mean, how long before they want more than just a selfie?
Wasn’t the old man a bit of a playa?
Bets??
#51 common sense
Energey audit the want it this year but they need to train the staff, Home owners may get some help from the carbon tax.
More government meddling to take your money and get more people depending on them just like the emission test for cars.
Such B S
“Wait! There’s More…. cheaper money allows better foreign investment. Oh, yeah… forget that.. Never mind”
Slow down Cowboy !! There isn’t any foreign investment coming in to Canada. In fact it’s opposite. The outflow of capital from Canada has been staggering. There is no demand for Canadian Dollars and that is what is allowing the Poloz Effect to have such injurious repercussions, there is no bottom, there is no support.
Instead of being beneficial to the country’s “exporters” the opposite has happened. Apparently, because the Poloz Monster has no education or training or experiance in finance or economics, no one told Poloz that the economy of the 1940’s is over and rocks and trees are not not the majority of Canada’s exports.
The only money coming into Canada is from the real estate bargain hunting money launderers who are gutting Chinese social ministries, banks and national corporations to hide in Canada due to our lack of an extradition treaty with that country.
Ok so we are not “completely” pissing the money away. Just most of it. Nice to know. My guess the money will build new energy efficient palaces for the leaders of these developing nations. A Canadian company may design the solar powered palace or provide the organic gold faucets! That makes me feel so much better about the $2.6 billion T2 just blew.
about the photo
Charles M. Schulz read the Bible beginning to end a whopping three times according to his wife, taught Sunday School – and near the end of his life described himself as a secular humanist (see Wikipedia).
Robert L. Short’s “The Gospel According to Peanuts” and “The Parables of Peanuts” are required reading for anybody wanting to explore Peanuts in some depth.
Unlike psychiatric patients, a lot of people think psychiatrists are funny and that psychiatry is weird.
(A lot of people look at a Jackson Pollock and say “My five year old could have done that.”)
– all fun ‘n’ games until GT asks the question, How could Canadians be so stupid as to bury themselves in debt with crazy priced houses?
None of the proffered answers are wholly satisfactory. They range from – plain stupid, financially illiterate, propagandized, and that it’s a consequence of monetary policy as it’s happening in other countries too like Australia, Sweden and others. Herd mentality seems to be a favourite explanation.
The dog in the booth is of course substituting for Lucy, the dog’s answer to every query is “Woof!”
Well that was fast, I faked it…
While I was working, another thought popped into my big head.
I’ve always said, we should all pay our far share of taxes, it’s good for economy, and valuations of our companies.
Because of Justin,
I’m re thinking that conviction…
#78 MF on 11.27.15 at 11:35 pm
#64 Big Dipper on 11.27.15 at 9:58 pm
Scary. Thanks for that link. Big problems ahead.
MF
..
Anyone remotely religious, climate change, Mosses, Mohammed, Jesus, the Big Red Rock Eater.
They are all dangerous to all humanity…
Only a sobar Nectonite can save you bastards
Good luck finding one..
#79 IHCTD9 on 11.27.15 at 11:37 pm
Justin is showing so much love to everyone in the whole world! I hope he doesn’t pull a Bill Clinton somewhere along the line.
I mean, how long before they want more than just a selfie?
Wasn’t the old man a bit of a playa?
Bets??..”
Not a chance in h*ll…in this day of advanced DNA checking and forensics, any Clinton-esque activities would require stain-resistant hazmat suits, carried out beside an incinerator…..assuming of course some wild card like Snowden hasn’t hidden a secret webcam in the room….
5 Smoking Man on 11.28.15 at 12:27 am
#78 MF on 11.27.15 at 11:35 pm
#64 Big Dipper on 11.27.15 at 9:58 pm
Scary. Thanks for that link. Big problems ahead.
MF
..
Anyone remotely religious, climate change, Mosses, Mohammed, Jesus, the Big Red Rock Eater.
They are all dangerous to all humanity…
Only a sobar Nectonite can save you bastards
Good luck finding one..
_ _ _ _ _ – _
Well that was fast.. . .
A true studly beast of a man would go much longer . . . – unless you are multitasking
An acquaintance of mine offers a non-legal type divorce service, might be another method of divvying up assets.
Disclosure, never used and never married.
(Tag this post #freedomfirst, #middlemenwin ?)
http://oneplaceforchange.com/about/
If you max out the cmhc a lot of smaller mortgage providers are willing to lower your rate to compensate you for the insurance! I’d guess that’s driving the uptick in insurance.
This white paper from PWL Capital might help: https://www.pwlcapital.com/pwl/media/pwl-media/PDF-files/Justin%20Bender%20Assets/PWL_Bender-Bortolotti_Foreign-Withholding-Taxes_v04_hyperlinked.pdf?ext=.pdf
People, grow up and move away from the lefty-righty debate. Lefty-righty is not important for the economical performance of a country but only for the power regime arrangements.
China proves that economics and power systems can be as disconnected as possible as to make the issue irrelevant for most.
Iugoslavia before the western gents destroyed it had the highest GDP growth in europe for years….
Herr Harper was a righty with $hitty economic policies
The youngen is a spoiled leftie with $hitty economic policies. NDP..is an unwise old fart with $hitty economic policies,
..so people… what is common to the above statements ?
Got it ? good…so drop it and stop spending your energy in the useless lefty righty debates..and focus how to get a $hitload from the coming disaster..like in..
a housing off the cliff
b oil 35 or less
c canada pesso 45c
d interest rates moving into 8-12 % over time. Yes..that was the PRIME rate
Should have kept Harpo from leaning on the BOC….Arms length…..Ha!
“3. CMHC have less than 40% market share. “
How does CMHC either insure or re-insure ~$900B out of a ~$1.2-$1.3T Canadian mortgage market and ‘only’ have 40% market share?
Where is the evidence of the “risk premia ” or reluctance on the part of banks to approve mortgages?
The increasing spread between the risk-free rates (ie: BoC Policy rate, GoC bond yields, etc.), and the rates going to mortgage borrowers (or even consumer borrowers generally) is the evidence. Not so much visible in the 5-year, but definitely on the short-term mortgages and the “Prime”-linked stuff.
“Houses are being bought and sold every day, despite the dire warnings on this blog and so far the sky hasn’t fallen.”
And houses will continue to be bought and sold. Just at increasingly lower prices, equals to equals. A big driver of the RE-board quoted ‘increases’ has been on account of the onslaught of relatively new, un-depreciated supply brought to market, as well as vigour in the high end of the marketplace that isn’t so heavily dependant on increasingly tight CMHC rules. Naturally when these resale units make up a larger proportion of the sales mix than seen previously, prices will rise on such account alone. That doesn’t mean that someone in their 40-year-old barely maintained junker should run out and believe they’ve seen ‘appreciation’ on their unit. Sadly, we have a good chunk of the population that is delusional, borrowing/spending on the strength of that ‘wealth’ and delusions usually turn out poorly for those afflicted.
Prices on housing won’t stop falling until prices are significantly below the depreciated replacement cost, and the new supply pipeline has been severely truncated for a number of years. There’s a heck of a lot of human and financial capital devoted to the sector to be liquidated, so a recovery any time soon isn’t likely.
“The outflow of capital from Canada has been staggering. “
This is actually a good thing. The problem today is too much investment relative to demand for goods and services. Particularly in O&G, but also in other sectors. So disappearing foreign investment actually helps to, if not reduce the glut, keep it from becoming larger. The currency depreciation associated with the outflows has kept prices up for the Canadian O&G industry. If we had a dollar at USD$ parity, realized prices would be 34% lower.
Eventually those outflows will subside, and the deflationary reality of the Canadian economy will be exposed in the currency. Canada’s exporters should enjoy it while they can, because with significant overcapacity in Canada’s export sector relative to long-term demand, and significant internal deflation, eventually market forces will push the CAD$ up.
“The only money coming into Canada is from the real estate bargain hunting money launderers who are gutting Chinese social ministries, banks and national corporations to hide in Canada due to our lack of an extradition treaty with that country.”
Almost no evidence of this occurring. Garth’s been over the topic too many times to even count. Accusing Canada’s affluent people of Chinese ethnicity of being crooks, criminals, etc., is about as xenophobic as it gets even if you only did so by implication.
Re Burrard 100 condo’s. ..you know what they say about rumors. ..if you haven’t heard of one by 11am. …make one up! I work for the developer and sales are not what they expected hence the rumors
Our ’71 baby PM sure has a lot of undigging to do from long standing fools and their (no) $$ chasing Rockefeller ego-driven dreamy mortgages-(smoky)
On top of that multi-tasking with the incorporation of forward thinking politics which were never credibly devised towards Canada’s future before-(Harpie lost credibility with US there, eh?). The ignored elephant in the room (skanky oil dependent) soon to be timelined out to ghost town economies ultimately anyways.
Blame gaming ones will be pointing their fingers 3-4 years from now, but if you want a backwards redneck country, it sure won’t be here. Thank God. Go full steam “Mr. Trudeau”-(Harpie’s word)
Almost 32 per cent of outstanding Canadian mortgages are insured through CMHC.
So that chart does not say anything about 68% of mortgages in Canada.
The U.S. housing market crumbled when 8% of owners went underwater. — Garth
http://www.infowars.com/black-friday-americans-brawl-over-vegetable-steamers/
The best line in the article, “people buying things they don’t need and can’t afford”.
Today’s Comments winner:
#23 Fuzzy Camel
With his comment about half conscious chubby Canadian!!!!
My wife and I are travelling in Europe for a month. We are in Barcelona for a week, staying in a small apartment. In London, Paris, and here in Barcelona, people are living good lives, and they are generally quite happy. I would have to say that given the quality of life in Europe compared to Canada, they are better off on the whole than we are.
Food is plentiful, reasonably priced, and of good quality; public transport is excellent; public art and museums are incredible (and free in the UK): it just appears easier on the whole to live here. People walk a lot more, they spend more time outside the home, they do not burden themselves with as much “stuff”, and they appear to be in much better shape than we are. More people rent and those that own generally live in smaller spaces.
What is this obsession we have in Canada for buying houses in far flung suburbs, cocooning, driving huge vehicles great distances, and buying “stuff” we do not need? Where did we go off the rails? And the bikes! There are motorcycles and scooters everywhere, everything from big sport touring bikes to tiny Piaggio scooters. They even have the odd Harley although none with loud pipes.
Actually, I would have thought the dog would just say, sympathetically, “ruff” as in life is very “ruff” indeed.
People are cold, life is earnest,
If you need some warmth, turn on the furnace.
Interesting stats
A quick math of Vancouver/lowermainland
Average house is over a million. so 95% loan is basically around a million (easy number to deal with)
If interest rates goes up by 1%
That mean 10,000 per year or close to a 1000 a month which is also 20% of a average family income.
2% = 40% of the average Canadian income.
#47
CO2 has a lot to do with efficiency when immediate reduction within the context of how we live is considered.
If we want to use dense high grade energy like oil and natural gas then efficient use of it will be mandatory.
What I hate to see is the amount of resources and media time spent on “turn off the lights for an hour”. The media should get educated and educate people that this is so infinitesimally small.
I see BNN says that 49% of our targets will be reached by energy efficiency and the use of smart thermostats will help. This is also bullcrap it helps but again like pissing in the ocean. Ever hear of thermal inertia? Let’s take for example a smart thermostat that turns back 2 degrees when you go to work for say 10 hours. In a normal winter day for an average home, the house temperature will not drop 2 degrees immeidately. All the floors and everything inside will already be heated and this will keep the temperature of the home warm until about two hours later. Now when you reach home, all the floors, walls furnishings etc. will be cool. So your furnace will need to run longer to reheat these items up to the living temperature. Smart thermostat marketing folks pull one on you because they assume that the full 10 hours is spent at 2 degrees less. You might save 1/3 of 10 % in savings or 3% but not 10 %. I have been using smart thermos since 1986, I even bought a Lennox Pulse Hi Efficiency furnace in 1986 as well.
http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/11/27/Trudeaus-climate-challenge-Cut-carbon-without-killing-the-economy.aspx
Beyond a certain amount of small improvements you can perform, the standard home will be stuck forever in a high use situation. Start sealing up your home and you’ll get sick over the lack of venting and fresh air. They knew this since the 80s when they started to build R2000 homes.
The real answer is the use of R2000 techniques with Passive solar techniques to collect and use low grade solar energy that is perfect for heating at low temps. High grade energy needs to be efficiently used for things like motors and industrial processes and the important cooking. Retrofitting a home will never yield reductions of 30-50%in energy use and still be liveable. We have the standards and know how and it sits on the shelf in Ottawa. We also pay for this already.
http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/efficiency/housing/new-homes/5051
Hope you did not purchase a new home and have to pay to keeping it going for the next 30-40 years. These homes will be the carburetted V8s of the 70s. Apart from the inflated prices that was paid…..their inefficiency will COST you for a long time. These same inefficiencies will make the standard home depreciate in value relative to a newer home because of its running costs.
Don’t get me started on condos. Smart thermostats will absolutely do diddly there. There is too much thermal mass inside the concrete structure.
Parts of Europe has been building with respect to low grade energy for a while but Canada is so far behind.
#127 SWL1976 on 11.27.15 at 2:51 am
#112 OXI in GREECE
I think you have officially lost it there OXI in GREECE
It’s a shame as not more then a few weeks ago you made a brilliant statement about the Middle East, but lately you sound like a babbling idiot. If you dislike Vancouver that much that you insist on calling in holecouver then you are free to leave at anytime… Or has Nestle’ locked you into one of their 75 shitty production jobs at their bottling facility that you claim has nothing to do with corproatoctracy?
Anyways, I also live on the wet coast, which coincidentally isn’t so wet these days which also might be why its -2 at night. Ever hear of the term clear and cold? What ever happened to the endless rain we get? Now we seem to get all our rain for the week, or month within hours, or a single day.
Can you explain that?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
1. Don’t be a douche and call people names if you believe their statements. Maybe some encouragement would be better.
2. Did you READ what I wrote? I said Jan 1st and it was a speculative forecast based on past data.
3. All these people that say “Fine if you don’t like it then leave” are the HUGEST douches because they are basically saying “dont bother trying to do anything. Just leave and let it fall apart.” What kind of a loser statement is that? This is my home. I will fight for it and if people are too weak to hear the truth then I guess they deserve the holy crap that will eventually be fall upon them by doing nothing.
4. “What ever happened to the endless rain we get? Now we seem to get all our rain for the week, or month within hours, or a single day.
Can you explain that?”
Yes….its getting colder, not warmer. All around the world its getting colder. That is why they changed it to “climate change”. If you want to keep being part of the solution….great. But you should not plant weeds so you can pull them out later with name calling and insults. That’s being douchey….
Mike in the Okanagan on 11.27.15 at 6:27 pm
What is percentage of all mortgages outstanding are insured by CMHC?
The table presents only those mortgages insured by CMHC which have less than 20 percent down so the stats are not surprising.
===============================================
you only require CMHC if your down-payment is less than 20%.
“Some people believe the central bank will again trim its key rate in 2016, even as the US Fed is raising theirs” – Garth
Yes, many of us have been saying for months that just because rates are going up in the U.S. doesn’t mean they are going up here. Certainly not in the next 8 months. You’ve repeatedly said 93% of the time the rates move together. If the economies are going in different directions then this is the 7%.
“moan and grouse”! omg, how do you come up with it? is it 1, 2 or + scotches or just natural?!
“Keep making those mortgage payments, though.”
Well, you could always pay rent … either way, you have to fork out for shelter.
Good to see that the attack on public servants is alive and well. Although some rich old white dude came to the conclusion they use 4 more sick days per year, there was no discussion on mental health (ie, root causes of this) nor looking at what they don’t get (such as performance bonuses, nor do they get time off at Xmas). Also no discussion of a broken promotion system and career stagnation, that can feed directly into the mental health issue.
your triplex may be worth less … but it will still pump out a rental dividend …. just like your preferreds …
your rental income is more heavily taxed, as are your foreign dividends ….
are you splitting hairs here?
I just laughed out loud at one of Smoking Man’s posts and my beautiful wife asked me at what I was laughing.
How do you explain an unnatural habit of hanging out in the steerage class of a Canadian real estate blog when you live thousands of miles away and own no Cdn real estate.
This blog is addictive. There should be a 12-step program to help one get off it.
I think I just passed step one.
BTW – Full disclosure…not all is rosy in expat land.
A bunch of my friends have had benefits cut and are looking at a $1000 a month or more paycut due to the oil price drop. These are in non-oil related careers…defence industry.
In some countries the cost of living is soaring while salaries and benefits get cut. Unfortunately there are silly people here too and get over indebted due to lavish lifestyle.
http://www.thenational.ae/business/personal-finance/uae-expats-turning-to-loans-to-fund-rising-lifestyle-costs
The lesson – even with huge tax free salaries western expats still overspend.
A few of us shun the lifestyle and save for a departure back to greener climates.
Cheer up. Grass is not always greener.
Sobar Nectonite
Just heard they caught a Nectonite on the Space Station.
Trapped him with Russian cigarettes.
Turns out he’s also addicted to Vodka.
Putin is keeping him in solitary, experimenting on him.
Stay tuned, dogs.
This year, Chinese families represented for the first time the largest group of overseas home buyers in the United States. Big spenders on new homes are helping prop up local economies in the Midwest. But in dense areas like San Francisco and Manhattan, they are also affecting the affordability and availability of housing, as demand outpaces supply and bidding wars ensue.
While Chinese purchases make up a small sliver of overall sales in the United States, they have had a disproportionate impact on the market for more expensive properties, buying one in 14 homes sold for more than $1 million. On average, buyers from China, including the mainland, Taiwan and Hong Kong, pay $831,800 for a home, more than three times as much as Americans spend, according to a National Association of Realtors survey.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/29/business/international/the-great-sprawl-chinese-cash-floods-us-housing-market.html
Chris in Nanaimo the other day was posting about SMV (sexual market value).
Care to elaborate, Chris.
How is it defined and calculated.
It’s about time, the contribution of the world’s oldest profession is quantified and added to the GDP.
15-year-long scheme of “doctoring”
“Health care fraud and kickback schemes burden our healthcare system, drive up insurance costs for everyone, and corrupt both the doctor-patient relationship and the medical profession itself,” said U.S. Attorney Eileen M. Decker of the Central District of California. “The members of this scheme treated injured workers and their spines as commodities, to be traded away to the highest bidder. This investigation should send a message to the entire industry: patients are not for sale.”
The conspirators in the Pacific Hospital scheme concealed the kickback payments by entering into bogus contracts to provide a “cover story” for the doctors, chiropractors and others who received illegal payments. For example, a number of doctors entered into agreements with a Pacific Specialty Physician Management (PSPM), a company owned by Drobot, under which the doctors received as much as $100,000 per month from PSPM in return for the right to purchase their medical practices – an option that was never exercised. PSPM paid some doctors inflated prices for the right to operate their practices and collect on their insurance claims. In still other cases, Pacific Hospital entered into contracts with doctors under which the doctors were to help the hospital collect on its surgery bills to insurance companies, but the hospital’s own collection staff, rather than the doctors, actually performed the collections work. Several doctors entered into lease agreements under which PSPM or Pacific Hospital paid rent for the use of office space, but rarely used the space. And other doctors had agreements to provide consulting services to Drobot’s companies, but did not actually provide the services. Still others, including marketers who introduced doctors to Pacific Hospital, had additional agreements with Drobot’s companies.
Department of Justice
Office of Public Affairs
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Tuesday, November 24, 2015
Five Individuals, Including Two Doctors, Charged in Kickback Schemes Involving nearly $600 Million in Fraudulent Claims by Southern California Hospitals
“Good to see that the attack on public servants is alive and well. Although some rich old white dude came to the conclusion they use 4 more sick days per year, there was no discussion on mental health (ie, root causes of this) nor looking at what they don’t get (such as performance bonuses, nor do they get time off at Xmas). Also no discussion of a broken promotion system and career stagnation, that can feed directly into the mental health issue.”
This argument just goes in circles though, because the private sector response is to point out the job guarantee and pension that unionized public servants enjoy. You want the ability for career progression and performance bonuses? Come play with us in the real world; just realize you’ll have to earn those things (as well as your continued employment), and not have them handed to you because of seniority.
RE:
It’s just jealousy and sour grapes. You know, like the people who missed the housing boom, the stock market boom, job boom, tech boom, etc. They will not be happy until everyone else is miserable like themselves.
just to clarify, I did not write #101
#114 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.28.15 at 12:32 pm
In 2005 Neil Strauss wrote a book titled: “The Game”. This book changed the lives of millions and millions of men around the world.
Strauss went underground Donnie Brasco style into the PUA (pick up artist) community. This group devotes itself to the science of seducing females.
The “science” contains tons of technical terms, field reports, hypotheses, theories like any other science. SMV is an example that was born out of this concept..as is negging, push-pull, pea cocking etc.
The book exploded. Everyone of my friends read it. Guys that had not picked up a book since grade school read it. and were talking about it. As a result the community has expanded to include all kinds of forums, social networking groups, websites, clubs etc., each with their own take on “the science”.
MF
“Almost 32 per cent of outstanding Canadian mortgages are insured through CMHC.
So that chart does not say anything about 68% of mortgages in Canada.
“
CMHC’s share covered by CMHC insurance/re-insurance is actually ~$900B out of a ~$1.2T mortgage market, or much closer to 75% of the market. But your point, that the worst quality mortgages would end up being covered in the CMHC portfolio of guarantees, is well taken. After all, there is little point in the banks insuring the highest quality mortgage loans (ie: low LTVs to very stable borrowers).
“My line of credit is maxed out, so I will start liquidating my RRSPs and possibly get a reverse mortgage.”
http://tinyurl.com/z5b7fa3
I wonder how many people are in this boat in Alberta.
Before stumbling onto here, i had thought rich billionaires from china… These are the 1% of china’s wealthiest = to the entire canadian population…
Who have ten or fifteen lamborgini back home….
And can buy four seasons in a heart beat if the can..
were the ones buying the million doll homes in YVr & GTA, and because $$ = power, if you donot have membership in the millionaires club then you are priced out!
Little did i know the data shows otherwise! Normal working canadians are the ones buying these homes! Thats horrific! The other way doesnt seem so bad… Hopefully they have mm&dad’s extra gained equity to keep them and the $CAD above water….
Former biker clubhouse to be sold – Leslieville:
http://www.pressreader.com/channel/Ace_McLean/3IT88TM4I6L
@29 Freedom First – You’d be better off buying VEA, its Europe and Asia, P/E 16 Yield 2.87 %. For emerging markets look at its debt in the closed-end fund ESD, it sells at a discount of -16.96% to its NAV and is paying 9% yield. I had an Vanguard emerging market fund for the last 15 years and it has only returned me 1.9% a year, that’s dismal, with ESD it returns 9% year right now. Remember don’t buy a fund/ ETF unless you’re willing to keep it at least 10 years and re-invest all the dividends so you get the full benefits of it.
@97 Mike in the Okanagan – Mike, here is a real indicator of how healthy Canadian housing is – The banks have insured all 30 year and higher amortized mortgages with CHMC, even those they didn’t have to. That means almost all the risk of every mortgage in Canada has been shifted to the Canadian taxpayer. When the banks are paying out of their own pockets the CHMC insurance on a house, you know the housing market is in trouble. Banks are smart, they don’t pay for insurance they don’t need. Read Hilliard Macbeth’s “When the bubble bursts surviving the Canadian real estate crash” This along with Garth’s input is an eye opener.
Perhaps the CMHC’s mandate is to facilitate transactions in the million dollar residential.
How many ‘subprime’ transactions were Ross Kays’ real estate offices involved with?
A 1/4% rate decrease had such an immediate and dramatic effect on sales and valuations?
Surely there’s more to it than that.
I’d like to see that data table. With proof.
The damage has been substantial? – meaning?
Ross who?
Climate change? Easy – burn money. (Better than giving it all to Al and David.)
#121 Still employed in AB on 11.28.15 at 2:33 pm
“My line of credit is maxed out, so I will start liquidating my RRSPs and possibly get a reverse mortgage.”
—————————–
I wonder if that same letter would have mentioned Prentice and Harper if elections had gone that way? Or is this just a piece of ideological BS.
these are not my words but they need to be repeated
Climate change/carbon tax is a hoax.
‘In spite of all the high-minded pronouncements about the “need to save the planet” and how this valiant effort can allegedly be “combined with economic growth”, their existence serves primarily one function: to distribute money looted from taxpayers and consumers to assorted cronies of the political class, who in turn provide the latter with kickbacks. That is all there is to it.’
no one is going to stop the sun from heating our planet, no one should try either
the planet is not dying, it is evolving
#82 BS on 11.28.15 at 12:05 am
” My guess the money will build new energy efficient palaces for the leaders of these developing nations. A Canadian company may design the solar powered palace or provide the organic gold faucets!”
—————-
You guessed wrong and BS is an appropriate title for you. Based on your ideology, you fantasized an outrageous narrative – which has no basis in fact. Next you shoot down your own fabrication because it is so ridiculous. Very satisfying for you and other ditto heads, I’m sure. It’s called a Strawman Argument.
Instead, you could have asked rational questions. For example, what does the cost/benefit analysis for this huge expenditure show? This assumes of course that someone has a quantifiable/measurable benefit in mind for this…
DELETED
MEMO:
TO: The 10s of Thousands of Stalwart Delegates in Paris for the Climate Change Jaw-Wagging Session
_____
The fall up here in Fort McMurray has been wonderfully mild and has been splendid. So far the snow is not yet up to a tall Canadian’s ass.
In your deliberations on how to fix the weather and save humanity, please bear in mind that the weather here is fine. Do not fix it.
Respectfully,
Thousands of Canadians working outside, moving heavy steel, balancing bearings and digging in the dirt to earn a living.
#108 Bottoms_Up on 11.28.15 at 10:23 am
Also don’t forget to mention how onerous it is to retire before age 55!
Lol
For all the seething over real estate agents inciting/fabricating bidding wars, it’s interesting to see how they can drive prices down when the market changes. They only earn commission on a sale, so when times get tough, sales volume is first priority.
Posted yesterday on the Winnipeg Realtors website:
http://www.winnipegrealtors.ca/Resources/Article/?sysid=2598
Winnipeg statistics are interesting too:
http://www.winnipegrealtors.ca/Resources/Statistics
Climate Change, or fast tax grab? I’m not a scientist.
I’m not an economist, nor can I tell you about species disappearance (except cash).
I DO think we can build. and retrofit existing structures where it is cost effective to be more energy efficient.
I DO think we can limit vehicle engine sizes to be more efficient. Few 8 cylinder cars are more fuel efficient than a 6, however, there ARE some v-6 designs that are more fuel efficient than 4’s. So not easy to call it simply on size. I am no expert on diesel engines what so ever.
We can limit waste here however.
This just makes sense! IF you are going to increase fuel taxes, several YEARS notice to give the buying public plenty of advance notice they are going to get screwed!
Use your Truck Nutz NOW!!
No system is going to make everybody happy, costs to repair roads, replace bridges are not falling. Better fuel economy simply means you need more money per gallon.
Sorry, even if we went electric there would be a ‘road tax’ attached to your power bill rather than your paying for it at the gas pump.
There, that’s just the crappy houses, cars, and small trucks. Shall we start on the cities and towns next time?
#124 VEA & ESD
Thank you. They are now on my radar.
It is about who pays for the low performance and poor value we get from much of the public service. People should complain if they are receiving poor value for their tax dollars. Jealousy and sour grapes has nothing to do with it.
Of course someone has a quantifiable/measurable benefit in mind. To gain wealth by transferring money from naive people like you to the those running the climate change campaigns (people like soon to be billionaire Al Gore and billionaire world leaders of developing nations).
There will be no quantifiable/measurable benefit to the environment. That way they can come back to you year after year for more money and you will gladly pay. If they actually solved this climate change ‘problem’ the gravy train would be over. Remember they changed the problem from ‘Global Warming’ to ‘Climate Change’ when it was proven there was no global warming and in fact the planet was cooling. If climate change gets worse you will pay more. Without climate change problem there would be no more private jets rides to 5 star European resorts to discuss how to divvy up the billions.
In alberta the PCs are criticizing Rachel for her approach to climate change.
The PC approach is — the solution to pollution is dilution.
OTOH, the alberta wra approach is — hire the engineers employed by VW to design a system meeting all criteria for climate changes now and in the future.
A few weeks away is most important shopping season of each year. Not Christmas but TFSA contribution time!
First week in Jan.
#YieldHound.
#129 Mike T. on 11.28.15 at 3:28 pm
“the planet is not dying, it is evolving”
———————-
That’s about the only sentence in your comment that’s correct. But remember that evolution depends on species variability and natural selection. Works fine, for as long as the “natural” component (environment) changes slowly adaptation can and will occur. But change the environment very quickly, say through a meteor hitting the earth or a doubling of the CO2 content in the atmosphere in a short time span – then there will be mass extinctions. It happened before.
The planet will survive climate change. Maybe humans will too. If not, other species will evolve, adapt, and fill the space. No big loss in my opinion.
#130 Big Dipper on 11.28.15 at 3:48 pm
#82 BS on 11.28.15 at 12:05 am
” My guess the money will build new energy efficient palaces for the leaders of these developing nations. A Canadian company may design the solar powered palace or provide the organic gold faucets!”
—————-
You guessed wrong and BS is an appropriate title for you. Based on your ideology, you fantasized an outrageous narrative – which has no basis in fact. Next you shoot down your own fabrication because it is so ridiculous. Very satisfying for you and other ditto heads, I’m sure. It’s called a Strawman Argument.
Instead, you could have asked rational questions. For example, what does the cost/benefit analysis for this huge expenditure show? This assumes of course that someone has a quantifiable/measurable benefit in mind for this…
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Bill Clinton was in charge of hundreds of million$$$ in housing funds after Haiti’s earthquake. So far 900 homes (read shacks) have been built at an estimated $5,000 each. That works out to about $4.5 million. The rest?
Gone with the Wind. Embezzled. Stolen. Wasted. This is what happens when you throw billions at projects in Third World countries. Will the Climate Machine do better?
Of course. Instead of merely stealing and embezzling billions, it will be trillions. Every year. Get used to it Canada, T2 is on the case.
Great opinion piece on Alta carbon tax by Todd Hirsch in todays G&M. Here are some excerpts:
“Predictably, the anti-tax lobby groups and opposition parties lost their minds. But the problem with their endless rant is that it goes like this: Be it resolved that all tax is bad. And therefore, a tax on carbon is bad, too. Be it also resolved that all taxes should be referred to as a “tax grab on hard-working families.” And because a tax on carbon is a tax, it too is a “tax grab on hard-working families.” And that’s very bad. This is as sophisticated as their debate on carbon taxes ever gets.”
and
“The “tax grab” language resonates with their political base: rabid fiscal conservatives and climate change skeptics. They’ll never change their minds, but it might be worth trying anyway to outline the reasons why a carbon levy is the right thing for Alberta to do”
I love it when someone else expresses my opinions better than I do. Here is the link:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/albertas-new-carbon-direction-is-just-and-just-in-time/article27514834/
@128 Big Dipper
I believe the letter is a cry for help. He is clearly under a lot of financial stress. The writer is looking for someone to blame and politicians can be easy targets…Its always harder to look in the mirror and take responsibility.
The UN and NATO will see to it that no one has a pot to piss in. Global warming or climate change is 100% fraud against taxpayers. Prince Charles, Al Gore, Al Sharpton, Bill and Hillary, Harpo, enough?
If you’ve ever been suspicious that WWII was a set up, you’re not alone.
I suppose this guy’s NATO interview went something like this:
“Previous employer”?
“Adolf Hitler”
“You’re hired”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adolf_Heusinger
#141 Big Dipper on 11.28.15 at 6:32 pm
That’s about the only sentence in your comment that’s correct. But remember that evolution depends on species variability and natural selection. Works fine, for as long as the “natural” component (environment) changes slowly adaptation can and will occur. But change the environment very quickly, say through a meteor hitting the earth or a doubling of the CO2 content in the atmosphere in a short time span – then there will be mass extinctions. It happened before.
The planet will survive climate change. Maybe humans will too. If not, other species will evolve, adapt, and fill the space. No big loss in my opinion.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Pure garbage. Stick to what you know. CO2 has never, ever, ever caused a mass extinction on the planet. Doubling CO2 will only increase plant life. Compared to the geologic past today’s CO2 levels are FAR lower. It would be far more accurate to say that we are living in a time a CO2 starvation in the atmosphere relative to the past.
Equating CO2 to a comet striking earth is meaningless and misleading fear-mongering. Just the kind of propaganda that the Climate Machine wants spread.
After all, how do you extort money from people without fear? Answer: you can’t. That is why the Doomsday scenario is central to the Climate Machine.
No Fear = No payday
#141 Big Dipper on 11.28.15 at 6:32 pm
The planet will survive climate change. Maybe humans will too. If not, other species will evolve, adapt, and fill the space. No big loss in my opinion.
***********
This reminds me of the optimistic comment of Jacques Cousteau when asked about the prospect of nuclear war wiping out the human species. He did not lament it. He said that a few insects will survive, and it will all take place again. We humans have little significance except in our own minds.
Senica bound..
Check in around midnight
Not exactly breaking news for Vancouverites, but the New York Times has a long article on the enormous wave of Chinese money hitting U.S. real estate:
Chinese Cash Floods U.S. Real Estate Market
A bit lengthy, but good information in there for HAM deniers who need a source like the New York Times.
RE:
FF, if you are Canadian, you would be better off buying unhedged ETFs that trade on the TSE such as XEF and XEC and avoid the FOREX charges of US listed ETFs.
If reasonable people concur with the general assessment from Margaret Wente http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/whats-the-matter-with-belgium/article27508948/
Would it not also be reasonable to assume that if refugees were being imported from Belgium for example, people calling for a high standard for the vetting process or worried about trusting the government with such, would be prudent and not racist?
RE:
As an experiment, go breathe 100% CO2 for 15 minutes and get back to us with your results.
#114 Ponzis Pilates “How is Sexual Market Value (SMV) calculated?”
Bo Derek was a ’10’. There right there is her SMV (at least from Dudley Moore’s viewpoint!)
Everyone all the time is subconsciously assessing the SMV of people they see or meet, even if they don’t realise it.
It’s our Evolutionary ‘lizard’ hind-brain’s attempt at assessing a potential mate’s suitability to ensure our survival.
For men it’s relatively simple and is done by sight. Is a woman attractive (feminine, e.g. long hair, shapely, nice character)? And is she good in the sack! If so our lizard brain is telling men she will provide good strong children for them.
Sorry Ladies, men don’t care about your education or your world travels when it comes to mate selection. It’s not shallow, just Evolution.
For women it’s more complicated, they assess a man’s SMV by a several factors; Influence (which could be physical strength, political power, money), Confidence/leadership, and looks, plus a few others. And these factors can be weighted.
E.g. Sir Garth has a high SMV, he’s a Millionaire, handsome as f%$k and owns a Harley! That’s why he has Amazonian’s attending to his every need.
If on the other hand he was broke, 5 ft nothing, and bald, his SMV would be a lot lower in the eyes of a woman.
However if he is 5 ft nothing, bald but a movie star, he could have any woman he want’s, that one attribute shoots his SMV up.
This is why you see supermodels on the arms of 90 year old millionare fat geezers, but typically not younger guys dating really older rich women. For most guy’s money is not part of a woman’s SMV.
When you hear of dating women asking a guy does he own a Condo, she’s subconsciously assessing his ability to care for her and potential future family.
If a woman is attracted to a ripped guy it’s because he can protect her from that sabre tooth tiger (at least that’s what her evolutionary lizard brain is screaming at her).
You can change your SMV by a few points just by getting fit, dressing better, becoming more confident etc. And also by your actions. E.g. if a guy has a hot woman on his arm that immediately raises his SMV in the eye’s of other woman…because he must have an attribute his hottie desires!
People usually pair with similar SMV’s. You see 9’s with other 9’s, or 2’s with other 2’s, etc.
Relationship’s usually cannot survive a big gap in SMV, the higher SMV partner will usually end up leaving to pair up with a similar SMV. This is why it’s dangerous when one partner suddenly loses a lot of weight and becomes very fit.
In a marriage if the husband is a ‘lazy bear’, sitting around not doing anything, or failing to follow up on promised actions, not taking the lead/making desicions, or becoming obese, or worse…losing his job….that drops his SMV in the eyes of his wife.
The person with the higher SMV is usually in charge of the relationship.
It’s a big subject, but so flipping obvious when explained, at least for those of us that have ‘swallowed the red pill’ when it comes to how relationships work.
If people here in Canada are so far up in debt and miss one pay check would be in trouble…..then how can the government go ahead and bring all these taxes and fees upon people? Don’t they know the populace is in such dire straits? Wouldn’t these extra costs put them over the edge? So why enact them if it would do this and retard the economy??? Instead of spending out of control they need to buckle and down, not spend spend spend.
Someone is still trying to sell new houses in Calgary:
http://globalnews.ca/video/2368274/new-net-zero-homes-up-for-sale-in-calgary/
Ex-Cowtown on 11.28.15 at 7:21 pm
Stick to what you know. CO2 has never, ever, ever caused a mass extinction on the planet. Doubling CO2 will only increase plant life. Compared to the geologic past today’s CO2 levels are FAR lower. It would be far more accurate to say that we are living in a time a CO2 starvation in the atmosphere relative to the past.
Equating CO2 to a comet striking earth is meaningless and misleading fear-mongering. Just the kind of propaganda that the Climate Machine wants spread.
After all, how do you extort money from people without fear? Answer: you can’t. That is why the Doomsday scenario is central to the Climate Machine.
No Fear = No payday
======================
Good point Cowboy.
And how about… where did the all that carbon in the oil, sequestered underground, come from?
I believe it comes from plants that took it from the atmosphere long, long ago.
So it might be said that by releasing and oxidizing the carbon from oil & coal we are trying to return the Earth to it’s natural state…
Do the right thing and let the shit blow.
#117 kommykim on 11.28.15 at 1:35 pm
RE:
#108 Bottoms_Up on 11.28.15 at 10:23 am
Good to see that the attack on public servants is alive and well.
It’s just jealousy and sour grapes. You know, like the people who missed the housing boom, the stock market boom, job boom, tech boom, etc. They will not be happy until everyone else is miserable like themselves.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
That is a ridiculous statement Kim. That is like saying if you don’t like Canada leave. Ridiculous.
EVERYONE knows the govt is the inefficient, unproductive, over paid, underworked organization in the country. Now if it were private. Fine. Leave them to their own devices. But they are not. They piss away BILLIONS of dollars year after year, decade after decade.
That type of THEFT from my pocket and other taxpayers has ZERO to do with sour grapes and 200% to do with legal theft of our money.
Pure garbage. Stick to what you know. CO2 has never, ever, ever caused a mass extinction on the planet. Doubling CO2 will only increase plant life. Compared to the geologic past today’s CO2 levels are FAR lower. It would be far more accurate to say that we are living in a time a CO2 starvation in the atmosphere relative to the past.
Equating CO2 to a comet striking earth is meaningless and misleading fear-mongering. Just the kind of propaganda that the Climate Machine wants spread.
After all, how do you extort money from people without fear? Answer: you can’t. That is why the Doomsday scenario is central to the Climate Machine.
No Fear = No payday
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
100% correct.
I have been saying for years Global Warming was invented in order to TAX people. The statement is now coming to fruition. I just hope the people will eventually grow a pair and finally tell the govt the enough is enough and say NO whether its a tax revolt or a week of no one going to work or something else that tells the govt that you cannot lie about these ridiculous issues any longer.
I will be visiting the Liberal Party headquarters this coming week to ask where my two week ago request of “all the man made climate change data”. I said “surely if you are going to Paris you must have a stack of papers full of data”. I never heard back.
I will report back on my visit. Show me the facts Jack.
#100 Looking abroad on 11.28.15 at 5:12 am
Looking abroad, you are absolutely correct in your observations about life in Europe. We are moving to Spain in January.
Here’s an interesting site to compare the living cost of various cities. As you can see from the link, Rent and groceries in Vancouver cost 67% and 31% respectively more than they do in Barecelona, which by Spanish standards is already a rather expensive city compared to more provincial, smaller cities with populations of just under a million.
http://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/compare_cities.jsp?country1=Spain&country2=Canada&city1=Barcelona&city2=Vancouver
#148 Smoking Man on 11.28.15 at 8:01 pm
Senica bound..
——
The mind boggles at your originality.
Chapter six intro a bit stupid..
Seeing it’s a slow go on GF..what do you dogs think.
Chapter 6
The Big Show
We gather on the flight deck after dinner, I’m trying not to show how horny I am at the prospect of flying this beast. Ashman’s still in a foul mood, Jeremiah relieved after a chat talking family and religion with Isaac. Barrington sucking up to Isaac not realising Isaac is now an outlaw. Greenola, Mohammed and Abraham right by Isaacs side uneasy with all of us…
Ashman blurts out, “So what’s the plan commander Smokey?”
“Same as Always.” I said.
Ashman looks at his father and rolls his eyes.
“Ok crew, we need to make a quick pit stop to the sun, fuel up, then we’re going back to Las Vegas. We will put on a slow flyby then me and Barrington will go back to the Flamingo and get captured. Ashman stay here and talk to your dad, Jeremiah you need to go back to New Orleans, many counting on you” I said.
I start flying this bitch, a lot easier and a hell of allot more powerful than I thought, I over shoot the sun by two Galaxies. Shift it into reverse and in less than a second we are hovering over the sun. I deploy the plasma intake nozzle, and in less than five minutes got enough fuel for two trips around the universe.
This is bad news for earth, they’re all betting on global warming, I think I just started a new ice age. Should have went to a bigger star, all this booze of late is starting to affect my judgment. Going to have to move the entire family to the equator now.
I cycle the refractive shields a get this bird ready for Vegas.
#153 Chris in Nanaimo on 11.28.15 at 8:44 pm
#114 Ponzis Pilates “How is Sexual Market Value (SMV) calculated?”
Bo Derek was a ’10’. There right there is her SMV (at least from Dudley Moore’s viewpoint!)
Everyone all the time is subconsciously assessing the SMV of people they see or meet, even if they don’t realise it.
It’s our Evolutionary ‘lizard’ hind-brain’s attempt at assessing a potential mate’s suitability to ensure our survival.
For men it’s relatively simple and is done by sight. Is a woman attractive (feminine, e.g. long hair, shapely, nice character)? And is she good in the sack! If so our lizard brain is telling men she will provide good strong children for them.
Sorry Ladies, men don’t care about your education or your world travels when it comes to mate selection. It’s not shallow, just Evolution.
For women it’s more complicated, they assess a man’s SMV by a several factors; Influence (which could be physical strength, political power, money), Confidence/leadership, and looks, plus a few others. And these factors can be weighted.
E.g. Sir Garth has a high SMV, he’s a Millionaire, handsome as f%$k and owns a Harley! That’s why he has Amazonian’s attending to his every need.
If on the other hand he was broke, 5 ft nothing, and bald, his SMV would be a lot lower in the eyes of a woman.
However if he is 5 ft nothing, bald but a movie star, he could have any woman he want’s, that one attribute shoots his SMV up.
This is why you see supermodels on the arms of 90 year old millionare fat geezers, but typically not younger guys dating really older rich women. For most guy’s money is not part of a woman’s SMV.
When you hear of dating women asking a guy does he own a Condo, she’s subconsciously assessing his ability to care for her and potential future family.
If a woman is attracted to a ripped guy it’s because he can protect her from that sabre tooth tiger (at least that’s what her evolutionary lizard brain is screaming at her).
You can change your SMV by a few points just by getting fit, dressing better, becoming more confident etc. And also by your actions. E.g. if a guy has a hot woman on his arm that immediately raises his SMV in the eye’s of other woman…because he must have an attribute his hottie desires!
People usually pair with similar SMV’s. You see 9’s with other 9’s, or 2’s with other 2’s, etc.
Relationship’s usually cannot survive a big gap in SMV, the higher SMV partner will usually end up leaving to pair up with a similar SMV. This is why it’s dangerous when one partner suddenly loses a lot of weight and becomes very fit.
In a marriage if the husband is a ‘lazy bear’, sitting around not doing anything, or failing to follow up on promised actions, not taking the lead/making desicions, or becoming obese, or worse…losing his job….that drops his SMV in the eyes of his wife.
The person with the higher SMV is usually in charge of the relationship.
It’s a big subject, but so flipping obvious when explained, at least for those of us that have ‘swallowed the red pill’ when it comes to how relationships work.
————————
Why not just fall in love with your best friend and spend the rest of your days together. Seems simpler. Worked for me.
Deal with it #5:
The oil has stayed in the ground for a pretty long while until a system of promissory notes with enough reach and legitimacy has been brought into existence, which, via positive feedback has managed to create end enforce the narrative (in current acronyms: the hated CBs and govts did it). Whether oil is to blame for changing the climate, is highly debatable, but more importantly, it is irrelevant, being only secondary in the narrative. The narrative was created to consume the energy, not the other way around. Simple evolution 101, adaptation in order to expand your reach by using more energy (there’s no other way).
Yes, in ivory tower theory, the promises could be expanded via carbon credits or whatever fancy name. In practice, they won’t for the simple reason that, even if promises are the main driver, oil energy is the actual engine doing the job, and no other engine is available, everything is a mere product of oil’s energy.
a bit more of this pale ale, and I might actually get the explanation right…:*)
Groupies at Seneca…
Click my name for the pic
#161 Fine Roasted Nuts
That’s great. Glad its working for you.
Btw have you seen the divorce rate?
#160 Smoking Man on 11.28.15 at 11:00 pm
Chapter six intro a bit stupid..
Seeing it’s a slow go on GF..what do you dogs think
*******
I think it is nifty. You are kinda the Pavel Datsyuk of dogs that can type. Work a bit on your fitness.
****************
Garthster:
Lately my comments have been descending in mood. I apologize and with the following question will try to elevate the mood of all Canucks.
Did you ever date Miss Grey Cup?
“Ex-Cowtown on 11.28.15 at 7:21 pm
Stick to what you know. CO2 has never, ever, ever caused a mass extinction on the planet. Doubling CO2 will only increase plant life.”
——————————–
What I do know is that I’m being sucked into a useless discussion…
Here is the story: you’re right! The atmosphere used to be sky high on CO2. No oxygen! The place was super hot due to green house effect.
Over the next couple of billion years or so oceanic bacteria, and much later plants, turned the CO2 to oxygen. Let me write down one billion: 1000,000,000. When the bacteria and plants died they took the carbon from CO2 and some of it became coal, oil, gas peat, etc. So far so good. Key point; it took one hell of a long time to fix the carbon from CO2.
So here we are. And, as buddy Russ states, we are now taking the fixed carbon and turning it back again into CO2. The earths atmosphere has increased from about 250 part per million (ppm) to 400 ppm as a result of burning fossil fuel over the last 200 years or so. No big deal you say, but CO2 still has its greenhouse gas effect . And here is the important part; it is THE SPEED at which this is occurring that is the problem.
200 years is a fraction of a second in geological time! Has the earth’s climate changed in the past? Absolutely! But when things happened this fast the impact on life was always significant.
Should you care? Who cares. But a lot of people do care. No scare tactics.
Sherliy Valentine…
Your above post, the quickness…
Every Nectonitre knows the hibrithohah maneuver, makes them happy and off your back quickly. Unfortunatly for all females, only four of us on earth at the moment..
Your odds of experiencing this, extremely low..
RE:
If it’s legal, then it’s not theft.
Sounds like sour grapes to me. Sour grapes that the party you voted for didn’t get in and the one that did isn’t spending your tax dollars the way you want them to.
#150 kommykim
Thank you. I will be checking that out also.
#157 OXI in GREECE — “EVERYONE knows the govt is the inefficient, unproductive, over paid, underworked organization in the country. Now if it were private. Fine. Leave them to their own devices. But they are not. They piss away BILLIONS of dollars year after year, decade after decade.”
We educated you, provided you with clean drinking water and sanitation, health care and a safe, relatively crime free place to live in a broadly meritocratic society. Our investment in you seems to have failed, but not all investments work out, and we believe in giving all people the opportunity to succeed, even if some of them appear destined for failure.
#158 OXI in GREECE
I have been saying for years Global Warming was invented in order to TAX people.
Global warming wasn’t invented.
Climate change is happening fast and the ‘elites’ or the real crazies as I like to call them, seen and understood this long ago. No one needed to invent anything. However, the real crazies did decide that climate change would be used as the catalyst to completely fleece the remaining soon to be serfs, us, into further taxation. It has also been decided that climate change and environmentalism will also be used to also get the herd thinking that living in 400 square foot concrete boxes in the sky is all about doing their part to save the planet.
See Agenda 21 or Future Earth 2030
I believe that the real crazies are funding both sides of the climate change debate. Much like they have been known to fund both sides of wars and current global conflicts.
We fight. They win.
Three main reasons I believe they are doing this
1- The climate change is real argument allows them to increase levies and taxes on everything we use or consume in our lives, be it a luxury or necessity. Done deal, the herd is convinced they need to do their part, while the ‘elites’ – the real crazies further profit and live lives of grotesque excess.
2- By creating the argument that global warming or climate change does not exist they get to keep a firm grip and control on everything oil. Let er’ buck mentality. No point funding or finding an alternative to the black goo.
3- By funding both sides of the debate the herd is left arguing and bickering over climate change. No change? Global cooling? Global warming? We simply become too busy consumed with arguing amongst ourselves that we fail to see who the real crooks are.
Private central banks printing money from nothing and funding our own demise are the real root of the problems humanity faces. Yet we as a society seem to be so mesmerized by financial institutions like the Federal Reserve and dollar bills that we fail to see this blatant fraud right in front of our own faces.
If you want to see climate change for yourself… Go North
If you want to investigate fraud… Study the Petrol dollar
If you want to call me crazy… Go ahead
#167 Smoking Man on 11.28.15 at 11:44 pm
Sherliy Valentine…
Your above post, the quickness…
Every Nectonitre knows the hibrithohah maneuver, makes them happy and off your back quickly. Unfortunatly for all females, only four of us on earth at the moment..
Your odds of experiencing this, extremely low.
…………………………….
Oh Smokey, take me for a ride on your starship…. you are clearly a red pill beast of a man
If the Greeks can no longer pay their debts, could some European Nations or North American Nations take them in as economic refugees?
After a complaint from the Eskimos, Algonquin College’s Loggersports team, which saws off a wood cookie after each RedBlacks touchdown at home games, won’t be allowed on the sidelines for Sunday’s Grey Cup.
http://www.ottawasun.com/2015/11/28/loggers-banned-after-esks-raise-stink
go Red Blacks go
Commander Smokey Man – the romance novelist
“I deploy the plasma intake nozzle, ..”
……………………….
Where the hell is Senica you beastly tease………..I’m coming
payday loan outlets: Ria Rinne, chair of ACORN’s Vanier sector, sees the payday industry as “predatory — draining income out of low income communities.”
“They put desperate people into a debt trap because of the interest charges in their products,” she said. “They cause and sustain poverty.
http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/activists-fight-against-high-concentration-of-payday-loan-outlets-in-vanier
the pay day loan outfits have a thick glass window to separate clients from employees
thank God I’m not either
#146 Ex-Cowtown. Couple of problems with your model. Maybe it’s time to leave the left coast to jump the stubble back home.
#1 World population 7.3 billion and climbing..
#2 Deforestation is accelerating.. Trees absorb CO2 and make O2.. (ahh but clearcutting is such a moneymaker)
#3 CO2 is LESS soluble in warming waters (that’s most of the oceans)
#4 Plankton productivity is limited to coastal zones and coral atolls. (the places where humans like to live — and pollute)
#5 increase in marine CO2 makes surface waters slightly more acidic, not great for calcareous plankton (you know the stuff the entire bleeping marine ecosystem depends on..)
#6 Speaking of acid rain and China’s coal plants..
#7 Plastic in the marine environment
#8 Your are gambling our future that we can crank out CO2 til the cows come home (god forbid the 4 horsemen show up in their stead).
Open your eyes.. It’s not an enviro plot to raid your piggy bank. Genuine problems and not a lot of time to solve them.
#167 Smoking Man on 11.28.15 at 11:44 pm
Sherliy Valentine…
Your above post, the quickness…
Every Nectonitre knows the hibrithohah maneuver, makes them happy and off your back quickly. Unfortunatly for all females, only four of us on earth at the moment..
Your odds of experiencing this, extremely low..
————
Sorry, SM only 3 of you left.
Putin got the first one.
He knows your craving is cheap Russian cigarettes and moonshine Vodka.
Surrender and join him riding the magnificent white tiger into the sunshine.
#158 OXI in GREECE on 11.28.15 at 10:17 pm
“I will be visiting the Liberal Party headquarters this coming week to ask where my two week ago request of “all the man made climate change data”. I said “surely if you are going to Paris you must have a stack of papers full of data”. I never heard back. ”
————————————-
I’d guess they call you a crank.
Just watching “Hot Property” on CP24 where realtors/morgage brokers and other slaves of the industry give people unbiased predictions of the future of RE market in this country. Their birds eye video of our local suburbs made me think up a new name for our “detached houses”. They really should be called DISCONNECTED TOWNHOUSES (ROW HOUSES).
just checked the comments
climate change blah blah blah
Once I had this butcher dentist (they’re all butchers to varying degrees) who had an office in a big building which also housed a large psychiatric clinic. In the bottom of the building was a large cafeteria.
To strengthen myself BEFORE goin’ up to the butcher I would have coffee and a doughnut and other sweets. (Butchers don’t care what you got in your mouth.)
So I’m settin’ there eating (and practicing not sweating) when this weird old man comes up, silently sits down in front of me, and wordlessly starts to draw on on the back of the mat.
“What’s that?” I politely asked.
With a fevered look he whispers, “This is where HE lives.”
“Who?”
“Santa Claus.”
[He let me have the map and I showed it to the butcher who thought I was crazy anyway.] [I still have the map.]
None of you endless climate change blatherers have given a moment’s thought to what havoc global warming would wreak on the Santa compound, eh? Where’re yer heads at? And Xmas is comin’ up too!
(Mommy! Mommy! All the stockings are dripping wet!)
Which brings me to ELVES.
It has unfortunately come to my attention that some, even smart people, have been making little noises about how certain high profile political humans who are evidently and perhaps actually elves otta be “outed”. To which I say, quoting Santa, ho ho ho. Meaning: don’t mess with elves if you don’t want coal.
As for GT’s memorable “Elvis has left the building”, he’s probably hangin’ out in that cafeteria. If you boring climate change fanatics – pro AND con – hung out in that cafeteria you’d know a lot more about everything.
Looking at the stats again
Its absolutely scary
Yeah 70% has over 95% debt
But what is scarier is 92 % of them has 80% or more.
Meaning an increase of 2 percent mortgage will add around 20,000 dollars to 70% and 16000 to the other 22 percent.
This is definitely not going to end well.
Garth you still think the correction will only be 15%
I feel its going to be closer to 35 to50%
Garth,
Hearing chatter that Kenney will be the next leader of the Cons. You heard it here first.
[email protected] — You seem to understand monetary economics but you know nothing about RE in Vancouver so stick to the former and click on the bottom of #113’s post.
#100 – Looking abroad — Very true about Western Europe in general – not really a bad life.
How does everyone have so much time to write novels about climate change?
You guys must be the life of the party.
Assuming that people who write so much actually go to parties…
“EVERYONE knows the govt is the inefficient, unproductive, over paid, underworked organization in the country. Now if it were private. Fine. Leave them to their own devices. But they are not. They piss away BILLIONS of dollars year after year, decade after decade.”
A common complaint from people who have no idea about how modern economies are structured.
http://www.thenational.ae/business/property/damac-properties-sweetens-deals-for-buyers-from-china-with-a-free-flight-to-dubai
The spreadsheet error in Reinhart and Rogoff\’s famous paper on debt sustainability
April 16, 2013, 1:12 PM ET
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/04/16/the-spreadsheet-error-in-reinhart-and-rogoffs-famous-paper-on-debt-sustainability/
Error Rates – Overconfidence – Has this improved?
What We Know About Spreadsheet Errors
Raymond R. Panko
Published in the Journal of End User Computing’s
Special issue on Scaling Up End User Development
Volume 10, No 2. Spring 1998, pp. 15-21
Revised May 2008.
http://panko.shidler.hawaii.edu/SSR/Mypapers/whatknow.htm
push and pull factors environmental
http://projects.thestar.com/chinas-generation-green/
http://www.internationalreporting.org/blog/category/news/
“When you pull up to the school the domes (there are two of them) loom in the background. Entering a dome is like walking into an air capsule; it’s pressurized with air locks so that pollution can’t seep in. As you spin the revolving door, your ears pop as they adjust to the change in air pressure. When the air pollution (PM 2.5 – a fine particulate matter) levels reach above 150 kids do exercise and recreational activities in the dome. This is the most extreme step any school in Beijing has implemented to keep kids safe when air pollution is high.
We knew we wanted to see “the dome” in Beijing. Who has ever heard of kids having a playground with a lid on it? It sounds like sci-fi novel. But here it makes sense. We’ve been outside on days when you could see particles in the air. You really feel as though you shouldn’t breath.
Beijing International School is the one-percent exception to most schools here. You can’t get in unless you and your parents have foreign passports. Tuition is about as much as an ivy league school in the U.S.
For most school kids in Beijing, when the air quality is bad they remain indoors and work at their desks. Most schools keep children inside when the particle count is 200 PM – four times more than the WHO recommends.
For most school kids in Beijing, when the air quality is bad they remain indoors and work at their desks. Most schools keep children inside when the particle count is 200 PM – four times more than the WHO recommends.
http://www.internationalreporting.org/chinas-generation-green-reporters-notebooks/
For Albertans, before the 12 Days of Christmas, come the 12 Days of Paris.
It starts tomorrow.
It will change everything for Alberta.
There will be no turning back.
Alberta will need a generation, probably two, to rejig its economy. Probably with a much smaller population. Climate change does offer the possibility of more agricultural output for Alberta, though this will employ far fewer people.
Until we have had those decades to adjust, expect real estate in Alberta to plunge by at least 60% over the next four years alone.
Probably 80% + in very sad places like Fort Mac.
Still, try to have a Merry Christmas my Albertan friends.
Treasure your families. There is more to life than money, but since all of us humans can be so thick, nature finds new and painful ways to remind and teach each new generation about this.
Our lesson is about to begin.
@ #155 S bby.
“Someone is still trying to sell new houses in Calgary:”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
I noticed that Real estate ‘promo piece” on Global “news” last night. Rarely a day goes by without Global spewing something forth about the benefits of owning Real Estate. But what would you expect when the “news” hour is brought to you by ReMax. No conflict there.
Lots of blather about the the energy efficiency of the homes, nothing about the tanking Cowtown RE market.
Surprise surpise
#189 ALBERTASTROPHE on 11.29.15 at 10:56 am
For Albertans, before the 12 Days of Christmas, come the 12 Days of Paris.
It starts tomorrow.
It will change everything for Alberta.
There will be no turning back.
Alberta will need a generation, probably two, to rejig its economy. Probably with a much smaller population. Climate change does offer the possibility of more agricultural output for Alberta, though this will employ far fewer people.
Until we have had those decades to adjust, expect real estate in Alberta to plunge by at least 60% over the next four years alone.
Probably 80% + in very sad places like Fort Mac.
Still, try to have a Merry Christmas my Albertan friends.
Treasure your families. There is more to life than money, but since all of us humans can be so thick, nature finds new and painful ways to remind and teach each new generation about this.
Our lesson is about to begin.
——————
Don’t be so optimistic and cheerful!
#47 Ex-Cowtown
I think if you search for EROEI (Energy Returned on Energy Invested) you’ll find that wind turbines produce somewhere between 20-50x the amount of energy required to produce them. (Hydro’s even better…so you folks got lucky there.)
#181 Nagraj on 11.29.15 at 2:32 am
just checked the comments
climate change blah blah blah
Once I had this butcher dentist (they’re all butchers to varying degrees) who had an office in a big building which also housed a large psychiatric clinic.
—————–
My butcher dentist is an ex-military version… dude has a hilarious deadpan sense of humour.
After a full on drilling – his feet planted next to my head to get enough leverage – and I’m rubbing my swollen jaw, he goes……
“Well that went well, last time I went right through the chaps jaw, clean out the other side, well let me tell ya did he ever spurt blood, a fountain of it. Ye see there is this artery down there ya don’t want to hit .. I sure learned not to nick that sucker again!….”
#164 Chris in Nanaimo on 11.28.15 at 11:38 pm
#161 Fine Roasted Nuts
That’s great. Glad its working for you.
Btw have you seen the divorce rate?
——————-
Well I can’t argue with you on that, and to each his/her own obviously. It’s all good, but wow that sure seems complicated. Just marry yer best friend, then you get to play yer whole life.
Thank you, Garth, for synthesizing the carbon-trade scheme to its very essence:
“if Canada can donate $2.6 billion to ‘developing’ countries to cut their carbon footprint”
Carbon taxes and trades are nothing more than a transfer of wealth from the productive class (business and workers in the 1st world and in export-oriented economies like China), to the non-productive class (developed world bureaucrats and ‘developing’ world kleptocrats).
People are getting the idea of a brutal transition period into 2016-2018 as Kanada moves from First World Producer into Second World Consumer.
Carbon taxes, electricity rate hikes, interest rate hikes. Shocks, all simulated via computer model then rolled.
Themes include rural exodus due to carbon/travel costs and restrictions, lowered tax bases, and even some ‘ghost’ subdivisions left largely uninhabited for the reasons above.
Is it time again for the “Calgary Trade”: short sell which ever name is on the Saddledome sponsorship?
– Original Air Canada went BK.
– Pengrowth’s stock crashed.
– Scotiabank…richer than we think?
#189 ALBERTASTROPHE
For Albertans, before the 12 Days of Christmas, come the 12 Days of Paris.
————————————–
Firstly, the NDP will be decimated in the next election so I suspect that many of their provincial policies will be ‘adjusted’ so to speak.
And if federal policies continue to batter Alberta I predict that the separatist movement in the province will gain traction.
There is a vast country to the south of Alberta’s borders that would be happy to acquire the natural resources of Alberta. And while Albertans are proud to be part of the Canadian collective, they also share a free enterprising and self sufficient spirit, much like the Americans do.
If the best that confederation can offer Alberta is as you describe, then I suspect that Albertans will look for a better deal.
Ex-Cowtown, Kommykim and others….NASA probably knows just about everything there is to know about climate change, don’t you think?
http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence
@ #59 Ronaldo,
Agreed, but the people I am talking about rely on a small pension, CPP and OAS only. They don’t have two nickels to rub together once the bills are paid.
Sad situation. Entirely preventable, but still sad.
Interested in thoughts on bonds;
I remember in a recent post Garth appeared to advocate for 17% bonds and 18% preferred, and then another 5% cash to make up the 40% safe stuff.
My mix isn’t quite like that, but I do have 16% in bonds. However my 16% bond allocation is ENTIRELY in the Vanguard VAB ETF. I remember Garth arguing for a mix of government, corporate, high-yield, and inflation-protected bonds. VAB is a mix of bond types, which you can see at https://www.vanguardcanada.ca/individual/mvc/detail/etf/overview?portId=9552##portfoliodata but appears heavily weighted to the government side.
I also understand that as interest rates go up, bond values go down. Without trying to time the market, it seems to me that rates have more room to go up than down at present.
I am wondering whether there is a prudent change I can make to my allocation, assuming I want to stay at 16% bonds as a hedge against a market downturn, that would also give me some protection against interest rate increases. I’ve looked at VSB and VSC as possible options. Or does it make more sense to keep it all in VAB? Any thoughts appreciated… bonds are an area that I really don’t understand like I should.
Keep bond durations short and hold rate reset preferreds. You’ll be fine. — Garth
#194 fine roasted nuts
Well everything I laid out happens subconsciously. It’s only when you understand the concepts you can use it to help in your marriage, or in the case of pick up artists get one night stands.
It’s not complicated, all makes perfect sense with a few core principles. As opposed to the myriad of incorrect mainstream relationship advice, with a divorce rate that has never been higher.
I’ve personally uses some if these principles to make my marriage the best it’s ever been, I just wish I’d known about them 20 years ago.
AB Boxster on 11.29.15 at 12:45 pm
And if federal policies continue to batter Alberta I predict that the separatist movement in the province will gain traction.
There is a vast country to the south of Alberta’s borders that would be happy to acquire the natural resources of Alberta. And while Albertans are proud to be part of the Canadian collective, they also share a free enterprising and self sufficient spirit, much like the Americans do.
If the best that confederation can offer Alberta is as you describe, then I suspect that Albertans will look for a better deal.
==================
No need to look south.
I give you two words, Western Separation.
Quebec got billions in real value when they played the cards very well.
#205 Russ on 11.29.15 at 3:07 pm
AB Boxster on 11.29.15 at 12:45 pm
And if federal policies continue to batter Alberta I predict that the separatist movement in the province will gain traction.
There is a vast country to the south of Alberta’s borders that would be happy to acquire the natural resources of Alberta. And while Albertans are proud to be part of the Canadian collective, they also share a free enterprising and self sufficient spirit, much like the Americans do.
If the best that confederation can offer Alberta is as you describe, then I suspect that Albertans will look for a better deal.
==================
No need to look south.
I give you two words, Western Separation.
Quebec got billions in real value when they played the cards very well.
—————
And, Nos Glorieux are atop the NHL with the Flames and Oilers in dead last.. with a Trudeau in charge…..it’s like the late 70’s all over again… which of course ultimately birthed Harpo.
World governments are in debt to their eye-balls. World citizens are in debt to their eye-balls. World economies are in debt to their ying-yangs. How to fix this, either grow economies or INFLATE AWAY THE DEBT…. NO INTEREST RATE HIKE THEN……… INFLATION because businesses didn’t do what they were expected to do with their tax windfall. Year after year, decade after decade of lowering corporate tax has allowed these corporations to stock-pile gazillions of dollars without re-investment into their respective areas. Cash is king as everybody knows today to stay as liquid as possible. How to fix this,, INFLATION of course,, so that these cash reserves of non-moving money begin to loose value (as inflation lessens the purchasing power of dollars). INFLATION will not appear as the US raises interest rates but rather as they allow things to get a little sloppy, by keeping the interest rate where it is or by lowering it still. NO INTEREST RATE HIKE JUST YET BUT RATHER A HIGHER INFLATION TARGET…..
#57 Smoking Man on 11.27.15 at 9:28 pm
Climate Hustle.
================================================
listened to your link. it’s a good one. was happy to hear Maurice Strong’s name mentioned. if you think Gore was the architect of climate change you would be wrong. it was strong who first proposed the concept to the UN. yes, he passed away this weekend too.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/canadian-maurice-strong-former-director-of-
Garth, I’m pulling my eye-lashes out on the CMHC website looking for the report you pulled that LTV chart from…can you share a link?
Thanks!!
Quarterly report background documents. — Garth
Found it…nm:
http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/about/core/upload/Q3_2015_MLI_BusinessSuppl_EN_w_ACC.pdf