On the edge

LADDER modified

Karma, part deux:

Let’s recap, shall we? The Fed is widely expected to signal the end of Cheap Money in three weeks. Already fixed-rate mortgages are getting more expensive. Banks, led by TD this week, are launching an awareness campaign so the house-horny zombies we live among will be schooled on what’s coming. And our shiny new finance minister, Bill Morneau – having told us last week the Cons left his cupboard bare – has nothing to say about what could be the greatest threat to our economy.

Let’s face it. We’re on our own. There’s no life preserver Ottawa can throw to homeowners about to go underwater. There’ll be no 40-year amortizations, interest buy-downs, foreclosure moratorium, reduced downpayments or rate holiday. The very politicians who aided and abetted this mess are unable to fix it – since the Bank of Canada has already slashed the cost of money and the feds are broke.

That’s Karma One.

The second part is equally bleak so, for God’s sake, do not let your kids read this.

Turns out at least four of the ten people you hang with or are related to, are idiots. Sadly, this might include you. So not only are 70% of Canadian real estate markets now slagging or falling with the cost of mortgages about to rise in the next few months (by almost 1%, according to the bank), but a huge number of us are already screwed. Thus, the combination of falling equity and rising rates for those with a one-asset strategy could become insurmountable.

New evidence comes via a big survey of people making $50,000 or more done by Manulife. When it comes to personal finances, many are hooped. Why?

  • Half of Canadians ‘struggle’ to maintain a balance of $1,000 in savings. A thousand bucks. Seriously.
  • Almost 40%, at least once in the past year, had to borrow money from family, tap credit cards or sell something to pay their usual bills.
  • One in six had to cash in taxable RRSPs or visit a payday loan vulture to make ends meet.

These are fresh stats. Add them to the file telling us over 90% of people have not maxed out their TFSAs, that RRSP contributions have dropped off a cliff and half of everybody believes they couldn’t survive one missed paycheque. Meanwhile new mortgage debt topped $75 billion in the last year and we just hit another debt-to-income record.

Manulife’s CEO Rick Lunny (I know the guy and he’s cool) doesn’t mince words when it comes to an explanation. The cause is houses, he says. “It does appear there are a lot of people living on the edge,” because homeownership has turned into a cult, and insane prices have saddled families with more debt – and overhead – than ever in the past. Meanwhile the real estate bubble has been unsupported by economic fundamentals, which means we’ve spent more without earning more. So we borrowed the difference.

This might make some sense when rates are low and falling and your job’s secure. But Elvis has left the building. We’re decidedly on the path to higher interest rates. Meanwhile the commodity rout ripples out across the country from poor Alberta – where a socialist government decided to raise taxes on individuals, corporations and now carbon. Now every day seems to bring news of more job losses, as much in Ontario and BC as the oil patch.

Well, the 1%ers who hang around here probably think they’re fine. But Karma being the bitch she is, this will end up biting everyone. The events above (higher rates, slow growth, job stress) pretty much assure a real estate correction. Given that vast numbers of people are unprepared, and have made such dumbass decisions, we should expect economic consequences – and then political ones.

Some simple actions will help. Hedge against the dollar by keeping about 20% of your investment assets in US$-denominated securities. We’re going lower. Hedge against the economy by having two-thirds of your growth assets in US or international stuff. Hedge against company risk by investing through index ETFs, and not individual stocks. Hedge against higher personal tax rates by maxing out both your RRSP and TFSA, remembering that the former is for tax-shifting, not retirement funding. Hedge against voracious politicians with family income-splitting, funding kids’ tax-free accounts, a spousal RRSP or joint investment account. Hedge against volatility with a balanced and globally-diversified portfolio, keeping 40% in fixed-income. And hedge against Canada by reducing your real estate exposure.

Or, don’t. Spend everything. Save nothing. Borrow big. You’ll be in great company.

209 comments ↓

#1 Randy on 11.26.15 at 7:34 pm

Buckle Up..The gravy train is headed for a crash.

#2 Sceptic on 11.26.15 at 7:36 pm

Happy American Thanksgiving, Garth,
What is your outlook on the Canadian high yield bond market?
For example, HHY.UN is down over 20% over the last two years.
You have discussed preferred shares many times, but to my knowledge, you have never shared your opinion on junk bonds as an asset class and their prospects in Canada, considering the energy rout and the expected tightening of the credit cycle by the FED.
Please opine,
Thanks,

#3 Alex Smith on 11.26.15 at 7:38 pm

Hey it’s not just us! Sweden is in an unsupportable housing bubble too.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-25/sweden-warns-dire-consequences-massive-housing-bubble-heavily-indebted-households
Garth they need you!

#4 LH on 11.26.15 at 7:38 pm

The poor they shalt always be with us

#5 Just opened on Main Street on 11.26.15 at 7:38 pm

………a Cash Stop store.

#6 LH on 11.26.15 at 7:40 pm

Nothing new under the sun

The poor they will always be with us

Since the beginning of time, bottom 50% has no wealth

#7 Kuato Lives on 11.26.15 at 7:42 pm

ATCO whacked 400 yesterday.

#8 anonymous10 on 11.26.15 at 7:43 pm

Advice on fixed asset allocation? Bonds are going to implode soon I think, I’m heavy in preferreds. What other asset classes do you recommend.

#9 maximus on 11.26.15 at 7:43 pm

Scumbags – don’t want debt? Pay a higher rate.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/personal-finance/mortgages/got-a-small-mortgage-why-youll-likely-get-a-lousy-rate/article27433928/

#10 Brian Ripley on 11.26.15 at 7:45 pm

“…a big survey of people making $50,000 or more…” Garth

There are only 4 provinces with average individual earnings above $50,000/yr. Ontario is one of them but just barely.

My Earnings and employment Charts: http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html

And even though the data is 2 months behind, we can already see some trend changes to the downside in those 4… etal.

#11 bigtowne on 11.26.15 at 7:47 pm

Have you noticed the new REGIME is more than a little friendly to all….maybe it’s the holiday spirit.

#12 Forzudo on 11.26.15 at 7:49 pm

Bookmark this post.

The next time somebody asks you for financial advice, copy and paste it in an e-mail.

#13 Justin on 11.26.15 at 7:49 pm

Sorry, did you just say the Registered Retirement Savings Plan is not for retirement funding?

#14 TurnerNation on 11.26.15 at 7:49 pm

Husky dog films wedding using a Gopro!

Click on my name for link.

#15 Ronaldo on 11.26.15 at 7:52 pm

Want to know where it is that 30% of Canadians took home $150,000 or more in 2011. Check this out. Will be interesting to see the changes in the colours in Alberta by next year.

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/mapped-where-the-richest-canadians-live/

And if you are interested in where all the fat ones live. Check this out. I suspect that the governments will be taxing that next. Seems like us BCer’s are doing just fine.

http://www.macleans.ca/authors/amanda-shendruk/graphic-obesity-rates-on-the-rise-in-canada/

#16 Ray Skunk on 11.26.15 at 7:52 pm

Another simple action: make sure you work for a US-headquartered company, doing business primarily with other US companies.

Ol’ Skunky has covered his ass in this regard.

Just wish I had more US$ exposure for my inevitable escape from the Wynne (and now Trudeau) kleptocracy.

#17 Victoria Real Estate Update on 11.26.15 at 7:56 pm

. . . . . . . . . . . .House Prices. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . Percent Above/Below June 2008 Price Level. . .
. . . . . . . .x = Canada, * = Victoria . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+35%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .x . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+30% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+25%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+20% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+15%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+10% . . . . . . . . . . . . x. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . * . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
….0%. . . x*. . . . . . . . * . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
—————————————————————————–
. . . . . . June. . . . . . .June. . . . . . . . October. .
. . . . . . 2008. . . . . . 2011. . . . . . . . . 2015. . .

(source: Teranet’s index)

Follow the x symbols from left to right for Canada and the * symbols for Victoria.

When looking at this chart, it’s important to remember that emergency interest rates came into effect in early 2009.

VICTORIA DOWNER

This chart says it all.

Since 2008, house prices in Victoria have been left behind in the dust compared to the rest of Canada.

That’s 31% of lost value compared to the rest of Canada since 2008.

FALLING INTEREST RATES STIMULATE THE HOUSING MARKET

Obviously housing markets across the rest of Canada reacted in the expected way to falling rates since 2008.

The obvious question is: What happened in Victoria?

RISING INTEREST RATES CREATE THE OPPOSITE ENVIRONMENT OF FALLLING RATES

If Victoria’s housing market could only maintain 2008 prices in an environment of falling rates, think how much prices will fall while rates move higher (back to long-term average levels).

Canadian 5-year fixed mortgage rates have already begun moving higher.

If rates hadn’t fallen as much as they have since 2008, house prices in Victoria might be 30% lower (or more) than they are today.

A 30% price drop for Victoria (as rates rise) doesn’t seem unrealistic for many people I’ve talked to, after they’ve considering the above information.

RISING RATES WILL PUSH BUYERS TO THE SIDELINES

Emotions play a big role in what happens with house prices.

As rates fall buyers get excited and buy more houses. This increases prices.

As rates rise, buyers view buying as a bad idea, sales slump and prices fall. This is about to happen in Canada.

#18 LarryB on 11.26.15 at 7:57 pm

Don’t care where house prices go, just a place to sleep and it is paid for. Invested in the world, don’t even care where those investments head. Food, Shelter and income well below our cost of living. We are kind of waiting for the Armageddon, stocked up and can survive. How about you?

#19 Millenial on 11.26.15 at 7:59 pm

Garth,
Results of that survey are pretty sad.

#20 CanadianOne on 11.26.15 at 8:07 pm

http://ineteconomics.org/ideas-papers/blog/what-can-we-really-know-about-the-future-of-stock-prices

Some food for thought perhaps.

My 7+ years of being here on a daily basis (twice on Sundays :) has been more than “informative” on finance/investing side of things. Your work is much appreciated. Hope to see you continue for atleast eternity!

#21 Gentleman prefers bonds on 11.26.15 at 8:07 pm

Life is short… Buy the shoes.

#22 Brandy on 11.26.15 at 8:08 pm

HEDGE- The greatest hedge against uncertainty in HISTORY- Physical Gold and Silver. This time will be no different. Great article Garth.

It’s also a great hedge against wealth. — Garth

#23 Jeff Gauld on 11.26.15 at 8:11 pm

First

#24 Jeffrey of Saskatoon on 11.26.15 at 8:13 pm

A good old-fashioned fleecing this appears to be. Politics is a dirty business. Verily, verily.

#25 Best Place on Meth on 11.26.15 at 8:13 pm

FIRST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

#26 AB on 11.26.15 at 8:14 pm

Great advice Garth as usual. I might also add to be prepared to max out the $10,000.00 in your TFSA on Jan 1 if by chance the Liberals haven’t yet rolled back the limit to $5500.00

#27 piccaso on 11.26.15 at 8:14 pm

Glad I’m single with no dependents and rent being unemployed.

There’s sweet dick for telecom jobs in Edmonton… what slim pickings there is are in Toronto or Vancouver and I’m just a peon in a pot of applicants.

#28 boonerator on 11.26.15 at 8:14 pm

And here I am with a bit of TFSA room and wondering
CPD or ZPR?
Both are lower than the price at which I bought them and I am hoping they will rise with interest rates.
Go Fed go!

#29 Warren - the lagging indicator on 11.26.15 at 8:15 pm

Leo Trollstoy – “Alberta is going down the drain and the NDP are in power. That’s all that history will remember.” Maybe that is why the NDP are quickly enacting all their far left policies. Either way they will be blamed for the poor economy, so might as well enact their agenda.

#30 turn of the tide on 11.26.15 at 8:18 pm

Amen!

#31 Warren - the lagging indicator on 11.26.15 at 8:21 pm

Ex-Cowtown – “The Climate Change Machine will claim that their “policies” are now “winning the day” and “saving the planet” so we should give them even MORE $$$”. Oh my, I really never thought about it that way. Do you think the media and the far left are that daft or is it that they are so ideologically driven that they know it is a lie but do not care?

#32 Dum de dum on 11.26.15 at 8:23 pm

All that stress for years to be on a title to 2×4’s and drywall that you would have to pay the bank for the right to sit underneath, until they were paid off ? What for ? NO THANKS

#33 Doug t on 11.26.15 at 8:27 pm

History repeats itself – canadian dollar going down as commodities crash – U.S dollar getting stronger as the world heads towards greater conflict. Listen to Garth and get your ducks in a row – it will be a bumpy ride

#34 Leo Trollstoy on 11.26.15 at 8:32 pm

Half of Canadians ‘struggle’ to maintain a balance of $1,000 in savings. A thousand bucks.”

Garth can you point a source for this? I’d like to read it just because it sounds so pathetically ridiculous. Is there a catch? Geez

Manlife. — Garth

#35 steerage steward on 11.26.15 at 8:33 pm

In the late 1990s, about a quarter of people over 65 had some kind of debt. According to the latest Statistics Canada report from 2012, that number is up to more than 40 per cent.

A recent joint study by HomEquity Bank and Equifax Canada found people over 70 have, on average, a mortgage balance of $140,000.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/seniors-debt-retirement-1.3313348

Maybe they are hoping to pay for their funeral with the HELOC.

#36 JB on 11.26.15 at 8:33 pm

Gee thanks for the picture Garth. I’m afraid of heights, and I’ve been trying to get the nerve up to paint my cottage.

I guess I’m going to pay a professional.

#37 Alberta wing-nuts on 11.26.15 at 8:34 pm

You mention a Socialist government well the prior hyper-capitalist governments of Alberta & Canada told the world “we’re spreading dirty-oil onto the earth regardless of what the world thinks”… What did that gain but a world & a particular leader calling Canada out and refusing their dirty oil… The world economies are still fragile & perhaps the US will lead with a rate hike but they too will retreat once the negative results begin to fall the economies into a deeper hole still… These are NOT normal times where past steps of recent can be followed… The world economies are fighting deflation and an interest hike will make the negative grip harder still to overcome… So if there is a rate hike then there will be a rate retreat soon afterward, period….

#38 Raj on 11.26.15 at 8:35 pm

All this and 416 might only go down 10% in 5 years

Consequential if you bought with 5% down or if the bulk of your net worth is in your house. – Garth

#39 Retired WI Boomer on 11.26.15 at 8:47 pm

Thanksgiving. Time for a review. To Spring 2008.

Decided the housing market was over-done, and stocks recently off their Oct 2007 highs looked “tippy.” Decided that only 3 years from retirement 80/20% stock/bond was not the place to be. Went 100% Gov Bonds. Went back into the market in early March 2009.

Good move overall. 70% stocks 30% Bonds. Retired 12/31/2011 age 60 because I could….

Portfolio sends me now about $30K a year. Took social security at 63, wife at 62 that adds another $30K plus my small pension adds $11K.

Portfolio now 60/40% and has been growing nicely -though unevenly- since retirement. Portfolio gives me the COLA (inflation adjustment) the government programs just do not. Dividends, cap gains, bond interest does the magic of growth.

Something to be “Thankful Over”? Dam straight, we both were on the same page to be debt free, and have a decent nest egg when the work stopped.

Yes, we started with nothing, and for many years had most of it left. Then somewhere in the mid 80’s realized youth is best wasted on the young. This from a pair of 64 year olds (me as of Saturday)..

Do I wish I had started in my 20’s sure, but you just can’t go back. Though You CAN start where you are. Will you live to be a doddering old fart? Who knows, but better to be one with F-U money than without, gives ya choices!

Are the times the same? Pretty much. Things change but, not THAT far that you don’t recognize them.

You need to do the changing…

#40 Panhead on 11.26.15 at 8:48 pm

I’m ready … filled the freezer with moose already … fish are about to take a beating next …

#41 Freedom First on 11.26.15 at 8:50 pm

Yes. Great pic. Do it yourselfers at work. Reminds me of the times I bought property. You have to see the shoddy and in bad taste work done by the DIY’ers in person to believe it. Talk about throwing good money after bad.

DIY’ers financial analysts pouring all of their net worth into a one a$$et strategy like a house is the same thing, only a different size of $hit sandwich. Though $hit sandwiches all taste the same, the bigger ones leave the much longer lasting taste in your mouth.

Lastly, [email protected], your BIL, your friends, and your co-workers let you have it all to yourself.

I’ve seen this play out before. It’s best to never go there. It is not required.

#42 My Life is a Pile of Shit on 11.26.15 at 8:52 pm

How to mislead with numbers:

“Half of Canadians ‘struggle’ to maintain a balance of $1,000 in savings.” That’s excluding money in chequing, investment, and tax-deferred accounts.

“Almost 40%, at least once in the past year, had to borrow money from family, tap credit cards or sell something to pay their usual bills.” The poll asked if they have used credit card to pay for anything. That includes those who buy with credit card, but pay the balance every month.

“One in six had to cash in taxable RRSPs or visit a payday loan vulture to make ends meet.” The CBC article in which the poll results were published also stated 2,372 homeowners were polled, and because it was an online survey, margin of error cannot be assigned due to lack of random sampling. That’s a small sample size, and the survey had no control over who volunteered to complete the online form. For all we know, it was more likely for those in a tight money situation to participate in the survey.

An Environics poll. The company’s methodology is sound. But, as always, believe what you wish. — Garth

#43 Interstellar Old Yeller on 11.26.15 at 8:52 pm

The second part is equally bleak so, for God’s sake, do not let your kids read this.

This got a LOL from me! Thank you, Garth, for thinking of the children.

It feels like forever and ever that we’ve been seeing surveys showing people living too close to the edge. People just assume everyone does it and are baffled if a
late paycheque or unexpected bill doesn’t send you into a panic. So, so sad that this is considered normal. When the tide goes out I hope many will at least learn a lesson for next time.

Piccaso – so sorry to hear of your layoff, you’ve had a rough run of things. Hope you land on your feet, keep us updated.

#44 prairie person on 11.26.15 at 8:56 pm

Garth, the builders don’t believe you. Three new houses on one block. I think a 70s bungalow is going to be torn down to make that four new houses in a row. When I go by, I want to shout read Garth. I wonder if the tradespeople are getting their money up front? A housing situation goes bad and a lot of them go bankrupt. The last time housing went down the back rooms in the auction houses were filled with equipment from the trades. Nobody buying all those ladders and power saw, nailers, wheelbarrows. It’s not just going to be people with big mortgages but the vast army of people in construction. I’ve watched these three houses being built and the number of people it takes to get them from vacant lot to finished house is huge. Last week a house in the neighbourhood was hauled away in trucks, a huge basement has been dug. Somebody is fronting the money. Big hurry to get it built. The dump trucks were lined up in the rain waiting to be filled with mud from the excavation. Maybe they do read you and are just hoping to catch the last wave.

#45 Transformer Man on 11.26.15 at 9:07 pm

A hard rain’s-a-gonna fall!

#46 Goddess of Kamsack on 11.26.15 at 9:11 pm

It will never crash in Van. Most people who buy are not concerned with a rise in interest rates. The problem is housing period. Rents here are pretty much the same as a mortgage. Never mind not being able to pay your mortgage but around Vancouver, rent is getting unattainable. Its so screwed up it it unbelievable.

#47 Patrick on 11.26.15 at 9:14 pm

#35 prairie person on 11.26.15 at 8:56 pm
A housing situation goes bad and a lot of them go bankrupt. The last time housing went down the back rooms in the auction houses were filled with equipment from the trades.
__________________________________

This is actually a good point for people thinking about getting a trade. Between the housing industry and the oil industry crashing it might not be a good time to be starting one.

#48 Patrick on 11.26.15 at 9:15 pm

I meant because of the rush of people into the remaining industries that are already qualified.

#49 Market Man on 11.26.15 at 9:16 pm

-Ronaldo – yesterday’s post

If inflationary goes above 3% they will have no choice to raise rates. Keep in mind mortgage rates will still be around 3%
Oil was $90 last summer and now half the price
Still waiting to see the saving at the grocers.
If the saving are not here at 42$ I doubt 32$ will bring
Huge savings

#50 Ronh on 11.26.15 at 9:24 pm

Its all starting to line up. It was fun on the way up, on the way down, maybe not so much. Great post Garth.

#51 Lee on 11.26.15 at 9:25 pm

#35,

I think they mean 70 percent of people who are seniors and have mortgages carry $140000 mortgages on average.

Also, a ten percent drop in Toronto would mean most sfhs would fall back to about $600000 or so since multi million properties are keeping the average at one million, if it even is that.

#52 Patrick on 11.26.15 at 9:25 pm

In spite of all the doom and gloom apparently aerospace manufacturing is a strong export out of quebec right now.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/uebecs-vibrant-aircraft-and-parts-sector-powering-export-growth-report-says

I know another high-value manufacturing company this week who are building a second Canadian plant to try and keep up with demand, mostly US. I think that there are still bright spots.

#53 OXI in GREECE on 11.26.15 at 9:27 pm

#237 Big Dipper on 11.26.15 at 5:40 pm
# 200 Oxi in Greece

“We had RECORD SNOW and RECORD early season opening this year. All the mountains opened a week ago. Its below zero right now…..on the west coast. Its the coldest it has been in like…..forever….”

——

Does Oxi mean Moron in Greek? Did you actually read the article you linked? Did you comprehend it?
Do you know that 2015 will likely be the warmest year on record?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Oh look? A believer…….and they are ALWAYS the ones that call other people names. And always believers in the garbage phony science they are brow beat with….science usually puked out by universities that get their funding pulled if they do not “do what they are told”.

So sad…..

#54 I like cookies on 11.26.15 at 9:28 pm

Sounds good to me. My spouse and I rent, have no debts, and are paid in US$ by overseas companies. Our portfolio is 20% Canadian equities, 20% US, 20% international (5% emerging/15% EAFE), 10% Canadian REITs, 25% bonds (a third in real-return, a quarter in short-term), and 5% in global infrastructure. No preferreds yet as not much is spilling over into taxable accounts yet, and we don’t need the income. Almost all is in low-cost ETFs, except for ~10% in a few US stocks as a wild card. Fun times ahead.

#55 D on 11.26.15 at 9:30 pm

Hi Garth,

What do you mean by hedge against the dollar, as separate as holding 2/3 of your growth investments in US or foreign? How exactly are those two separate things? Are you buying USD fixed income products?

#56 common sense on 11.26.15 at 9:31 pm

In the history of the world as we know it, has there EVER been such focus in an interest rate hike?

What a world of mass QE and manipulation has lead us to this.

Be grateful 60% have listened and planned realistically.

Do we keep the door locked when those come a knockin for help in the next few months/year?

#57 MSM-Free Zone on 11.26.15 at 9:33 pm

“….There’ll be no 40-year amortizations……”
_________________________

Unfortunately, one must never underestimate the lobbying power of the Canadian Bankers Association over a newbe finance minister, especially now the Big Six are rumored to report less-than-uber profits this quarter.

btw….F, Joe Owe……got a nickname for the new guy yet ?

#58 Yankee Biff on 11.26.15 at 9:33 pm

If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a thousand times, when it comes to money, Canadians are a truly stupid breed.

There is a reason the famous movie in the 1980s was called “Wall Street,” not “Bay Street.” It’s because Canadians are not intelligent when it comes to money (compared to us Americans).

#59 Chris In Nanaimo on 11.26.15 at 9:34 pm

Ahhh yes, that bizarre time of year when Americans are thankful for what they have, and the very next day go out and get into fights at Walmart to buy more stuff they don’t need.

Btw our local shark money loan place shut recently…it was in a prime location….worse part of town, opposite a McDonalds that has to keep its washrooms locked…that’s how sociable this part of town is. Meanhile yet not a few hundred feet away the local Casino is still as busy as ever with Seniors blowing their pension.

#60 Big Dipper on 11.26.15 at 9:39 pm

“Maybe that is why the NDP are quickly enacting all their far left policies.”
—–
Yeah, they nationalized all the oil companies, executed the executives, send people to re-education camps north of McMurray, and make kids sing the International in schools. Bastard far left….

There is no end to the Con’s delusional bullshit machine.

#61 Smoking Man on 11.26.15 at 9:39 pm

So people are stretched thin, I can’t relate, however I do believe this to be true.

In Ontario we have the highest:
Auto Insurance Rates.
Most expensive airport to fly out of.
Insane real Estate valuations.
Hi Occupancy lanes coming to restrict commerce.
Wages ½ of what they are in NYC, Boston, LA
New carbon taxes on the way.
Increased payroll costs for pensions.

Every multi national company are looking for an exit strategy in spite of a low dollar.

Few years ago I did a trade show for one of my corps, put on by the city of Toronto. Two days not one qualified lead, in fact we only spoke to people looking for jobs and begging for money.
The organizers city hall staffers thought it was a great success. By far the worked trade show I’ve ever been in. I give you the liberal mindset.

Shit is going to hit the fan hard. Wynne + The Kid + City Hall = Disaster Immanent

I think this will be the Spring to unload.

#62 AlbertaGuy on 11.26.15 at 9:41 pm

Picasso, speaking from one telecom guy to another my last day at TU is end of the year and I too will be looking for my next gig. A couple ideas. One , if you have a clean drivers abstract you can drive Uber in EDTN ~ 25/hr – pays the bills and an interesting social experiment. Two if PEng can obtain TN status to work in US for $50 at pont of entry..smokie any tips here?

#63 Tom from Mississauga on 11.26.15 at 9:43 pm

The 40% that can’t come up with money to pay usual bills. Yeah, there are payday loan store all over Peel Region now. By my parents house in Brampton there are now 7 that are 10 minute walk. There are 2 in the same strip plaza, with a pawn shop with payday loans across the street (Kennedy and Steeles). It’s insane!

#64 young & foolish on 11.26.15 at 9:44 pm

“I’ve watched these three houses being built and the number of people it takes to get them from vacant lot to finished house is huge.”

Yes, and those people are your customers …. be careful what you wish for since you are unlikely to avoid the collateral damage.

#65 Canned Goods and Buckshot on 11.26.15 at 9:47 pm

“where a socialist government decided to raise taxes on individuals, corporations and now carbon”

You consistently write “socialist” when you refer to the Alberta government. Your tone suggests you write this as a pejorative. It makes me recall the TeaParty Republican rhetoric. Socialism allows things like public healthcare, armed forces, police and fire services.

On taxing carbon: welcome to the 21st century. Somethings are worth paying for. I’m not dismissive of attempts in dealing with climate change. I would rather see us lead than bury our heads in the sand like Harper, Goodyear et.al.

There’s a time for socialism and a time it is ideological adolescence. — Garth

#66 Retired WI Boomer on 11.26.15 at 9:49 pm

#27 Picasso

Sorry to hear about the run of tough luck. Ever think about heading to the US? Seems everyone around these parts that wants to work has a job.

Forget the anecdotal remarks and ‘labor participation rates’ numbers. I “should” have been in labor force the last four years due to age, but screw that. I had enough to sustain me, so they could take their job and shove it.

Rent, own makes no difference. Either you DO have enough of your own, or you do not. If you do not, well not much choice except to find gainful recompense.

Nobody has a crystal ball worth a dam, and the world hasn’t changed that much over the years. Yes, it is true.

#67 Leo Trollstoy on 11.26.15 at 9:49 pm

the lagging indicator on 11.26.15 at 8:15 pm

Very good point.

Damned if you do. Damned if you don’t. Embrace the stigma.

I can respect that.

#68 David on 11.26.15 at 9:50 pm

#13 Justin on 11.26.15 at 7:49 pm
Sorry, did you just say the Registered Retirement Savings Plan is not for retirement funding?

You must be new here.
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2014/01/27/six-cool-things/

#69 Vundo on 11.26.15 at 9:51 pm

#13 Justin: RRSP’s strike me as a fine way to find one’s retirement if one isn’t obsessed with paying no taxes in retirement. Many of us will be lucky to have to worry about making too much money in retirement, if we ever get there at all.

#70 MSM-Free Zone on 11.26.15 at 9:55 pm

#58 Yankee Biff on 11.26.15 at 9:33 pm
“……It’s because Canadians are not intelligent when it comes to money (compared to us Americans)……”
__________________________________

That’s a little rich coming from a citizen whose investment banks brought down the entire financial world in 2008.

(apologies to Retired WI Boomer who truly is more intelligent than most Canadians when it comes to money).

#71 young & foolish on 11.26.15 at 9:55 pm

“We are kind of waiting for the Armageddon, stocked up and can survive. How about you?”

Oh man … why not just fly over and join ISIS?

#72 Big Dipper on 11.26.15 at 9:58 pm

This is a Public Service for the “Climate Change deniers” trolling this blog.

The link below addresses science based answers to 176 arguments from global warming sceptics.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php

#73 young & foolish on 11.26.15 at 10:03 pm

Keep in mind … everybody has run up huge debts, governments, individuals, and not least, corporate America. I am wondering about earnings and valuations.

Plus demographics point to lower expected spending almost everywhere. I wonder about growth.

The reasons for a global portfolio. — Garth

#74 Newmomtotwins on 11.26.15 at 10:04 pm

With rates going up – What do you recommend in my situation: mortgage of $220k, property valued at $500k. Mortgage up for renewal. Do I go variable (prime -.70 or 5yr fixed 2.59%

Why gamble for a measly 40 basis points on a modest mortgage? — Garth

#75 joblo on 11.26.15 at 10:09 pm

Hold on, let my check this web address…..

It reads greaterfool.ca by Garth Turner,
for a minute there I thought it was
The Doom and Gloom Report by Marc Faber.
Yikes!

Big difference. Faber thinks he matters. — Garth

#76 I love real estate on 11.26.15 at 10:09 pm

The Manulife report is alarmist and does not reflect the tremendous equity that has been earned through real estate investing.

Nothing comes close to that, Garth. This is not 1981, as much as some might like to believe it.

Real estate in 416 should grow another 10-15% in 2016. Only greater fools will remain on the outside looking in.

Equity is not money. It can fade quickly. A one-asset strategy is the Achilles heel of realtors like you. — Garth

#77 Raging Ranter on 11.26.15 at 10:09 pm

Definition of a loser: Posting “First” and winding up in the #23 position. See Jeff above.

#78 Rudygq on 11.26.15 at 10:10 pm

Garth,
Thank you again for the wise words so seldom found on the internet. Clear, concise and courageous. Bravo on having the cahones to call a spade a spade. Truth is not desirable when it counters one’s present paradigm and predisposition (especially when it illuminates regrettable actions taken). But truth is often pursued when seeking meaningful direction.
When it comes to housing, many a citizen may not have valuated their personal balance sheets properly and put themselves into a temporary pickle; however what is not adequately acknowledged is the resiliency of the many who can overcome financial setbacks and live healthy and productive lives when their backs are against the wall. The world is not coming to an end if the masses are being financial irresponsible. People will still eat, sleep, love and poop the same way they’ve been doing for thousands of years. The difference is during market downturns; less discretionary funds and fewer activities will be done using high-end brand name products. Life will go on. The market giveth and the market taketh away.

#79 45north on 11.26.15 at 10:18 pm

We’re on our own. There’s no life preserver Ottawa can throw to homeowners about to go underwater. There’ll be no 40-year amortizations, interest buy-downs, foreclosure moratorium, reduced downpayments or rate holiday.

Mark Hanson talks about mortgage modifications and foreclosure moratoriums in the US. I thought that somehow Canada would have its own versions. As you say there is no life preserver Ottawa can throw.

It’s not the change we thought.

#80 Reston McClore on 11.26.15 at 10:20 pm

To #22 brandy

So based on Garth’s comment, Shorting gold and silver would naturally be the right thing to do then?

Ignoring it is correct. — Garth

#81 Washed Up Lawyer on 11.26.15 at 10:21 pm

A couple of thoughts on Rachel’s CO2 emission policy. And no, I will not delve into the science of AGW nor call people “deniers” or “believers”.

In the main it is a re-branding and marketing campaign. It will reduce CO2 production a bit on the margins and some will abandon the Escalade for the Mazda 3 and install a solar panel.

Re-branding and marketing campaigns cost money. Garth knows that as he knows people in the field. That is why the CEOs of five major oil sands companies were on the stage with Ms. Notley for the announcement.

It would be no fun to arrive in Paris only to have people yell “dirty oil”, “environmental laggards” and “OIL CREEPS” at you. The whole world is pointing their finger at us, including the Pontiff.

If it helps promote a pipeline to tidewater, the hiring of pipeliners and haul truck drivers, it may have a net positive benefit.

And, I am a believer.

#82 Jeffrey of Saskatoon on 11.26.15 at 10:21 pm

#45 I wouldn’t want to be a blue-eyed son alas I am a blue-eyed son(Sun). The Girl from the North Country, brings a tear to my eye every time. The duo with Cash is Gold.

#83 Oceanside on 11.26.15 at 10:23 pm

Started out very well today, around 10 paragraphs before making a statement about “socialists”

How would you describe the NDP, when it describes itself as such? — Garth

#84 Freedom First on 11.26.15 at 10:25 pm

#58 Yankee Biff

Yes, we are in even worse shape than you guys were before you got the $hit kicked out of you. When it comes to financial acumen, American and Canadian citizens are for sure, “Dumb and Dumber.”

#85 dogman01 on 11.26.15 at 10:33 pm

Been a war on the savers and rewards to the little debt piggies.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/war-on-savers-neil-macdonald-1.3337347

Next to Garth; Neil Macdonald comes second in my “Tell it like it is List”
Neil’s stuff is often golden insights and wisdom.

Call is “Schadenfreude” but when I see the debt addled masses , I just ask: how could you not see this coming, how could you make yourself so very vulnerable.

How could you value your freedom and peace of mind so lightly.

#86 common sense on 11.26.15 at 10:42 pm

#78 Rudygq

Nice sane, balanced post that pretty much sums “it” all up.

Well done.

#87 OXI in GREECE on 11.26.15 at 10:42 pm

#72 Big Dipper on 11.26.15 at 9:58 pm
This is a Public Service for the “Climate Change deniers” trolling this blog.

The link below addresses science based answers to 176 arguments from global warming sceptics.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Oh yes…..the site that was created neither by scientists, run by scientists and is even distanced by scientists because they do not wish to be associated with the crack pot CARTOONIST who runs the site……

Think I will go outside and get the chilled 1 degree Celcius glasses off my deck in Holecouver and make myself a drink now.

That is why it’s called brainwashing folks…..

#88 Big Dipper on 11.26.15 at 10:46 pm

“How would you describe the NDP”
——
Social Democrats. Mildly left of centre folks trying to fix the economic and environmental harm done by years of neo-con failed experimentation.

#89 common sense on 11.26.15 at 10:47 pm

#85 Dogman

I had the pleasure of hearing Ralph Nader talk when he ran for President in 2008 with rocker/poet Patti Smith fundraising with him…Interesting combo to say the least.

Post speech, when he knew I was Canadian from my accent, gave a rousing 10 minute lecture on “Your boy PM Stephen Harper” that was not only dead-on but also hilarious and quite intense… His comments on Harper’s focus on oil were dead on…glad he’s still at it for the consumer, doing whatever he can do.

#90 Leo Trollstoy on 11.26.15 at 10:48 pm

Got a CLS550 this week.

Cash of course.

Thanks goes out to my U.S. tenants and the BoC for a crappy CAD.

I’d get the 63 AMG but I’m not a kid no more.

#91 Big Dipper on 11.26.15 at 10:48 pm

#81 Washed Up Lawyer

Exactly.

#92 Smoking Man on 11.26.15 at 10:49 pm

#81 Washed Up Lawyer on 11.26.15 at 10:21 pm
A couple of thoughts on Rachel’s CO2 emission policy. And no, I will not delve into the science of AGW nor call people “deniers” or “believers”.

In the main it is a re-branding and marketing campaign. It will reduce CO2 production a bit on the margins and some will abandon the Escalade for the Mazda 3 and install a solar panel.

Re-branding and marketing campaigns cost money. Garth knows that as he knows people in the field. That is why the CEOs of five major oil sands companies were on the stage with Ms. Notley for the announcement.

It would be no fun to arrive in Paris only to have people yell “dirty oil”, “environmental laggards” and “OIL CREEPS” at you. The whole world is pointing their finger at us, including the Pontiff.

If it helps promote a pipeline to tidewater, the hiring of pipeliners and haul truck drivers, it may have a net positive benefit.

And, I am a believer.
…..

Fk what people think.

Do the right thing , say the right thing for young Hard working Canadian families in Alberta…

I always say the right thing..fk the haters, they are toe nail scum in my mind.

We need leaders with balls to make a nation great. Not girly men.

We need a Canadian version of Putin..

#93 Linda on 11.26.15 at 10:50 pm

If the link in #10 Brian’s post is accurate, most of the population of Canada does not make $50,000+ per year. Even Alberta – skewed by highly paid O&G compensation – averages just over $58,000 per annum as per that chart. Also, insofar as I can make out the figures are based on gross income. So any investments, savings, RRSP or TFSA contributions would have to come out of net income & if I take the Canadian average as per the chart & presume that most people get to take home 65% of their gross earnings, then the average net income is somewhere in the $30,000 per annum range. Given that a lot of that net has to go towards paying living expenses (shelter, food, clothing, transportation & health care) I can see why half of Canadians struggle to maintain $1,000 in savings.

Median family income in Canada is $76,000. — Garth

#94 MF on 11.26.15 at 10:55 pm

#241 Doug in London on 11.26.15 at 6:52 pm

“@MF, post #207 and 208:
I don’t know about ZRE (don’t follow it) but CPD and XPF are down because of low interest rates. They are up from their 52 week low, as some people believe (probably correctly) that in the long run interest rates will go up. If more people really believed rates will rise, CPD and XPF would probably higher. As I said before, these ETFs are ON SALE and it’s a good time to buy them, especially if your portfolio is underweight in them.”

No you are 100% correct, just that I bought CPD in April and got burned big by it when we stupidly cut rates. To make it worse the yield went down as well.

You are right right though, the time to buy is when the ETF/stock is beaten down. Just hard to stomach buying more when you’ve been burned already (I know I know I should I ignore such emotions).

Still confused about ZRE being down (anticipated high rates?) and CPD being down (anticipated low rates?)..meh guess no one knows what on earth is going to happen.

MF

#95 Darryl on 11.26.15 at 10:59 pm

#58 Yankee Biff

All I gotta say is… two Bush’s in a row… can’t fix that kind of stupid!

#96 EQUALIZER on 11.26.15 at 11:06 pm

Victoria Real Estate Update

I’M SORRY BUT YOUR DREAM OF LOWER PRICES WILL NEVER MATERIALIZE BECAUSE OUR COMMUNIST GOVERNMENT WILL NEVER EVER ALLOW HOUSING TO TAKE A DUMP.
BECAUSE IF IT DID, WE’D BE SCREWED BEYOND REPAIR.
YOU GARTH HAVE TOTALLY MISSED OUR GOVERNMENT’S INTENTION ON THIS.
MAY TH LORD HAVE MERCY ON YOUR LOST SOUL.
THE END.

#97 TheUnhealthy on 11.26.15 at 11:10 pm

My uneducated interpretation of the chart I provide suggests a few things:

– we aren’t in an oil rout
– it was the upswing that was the anomaly, not the current price of oil
– with crude presently at $42.57, prices are probably more likely to dip below the historical 70 year mean of $41.70 as they are to rise above it

http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/Historical_Oil_Prices_Chart.asp

As you’ve mentioned before, Garth, corps are more efficient at extracting and have enormous amounts barrelled and stored.

“Recovery” might take a while.

#98 Smoking Man on 11.26.15 at 11:14 pm

The only think missing in climate religion is a tradition.

The orthodox Jews in Isreal have the wailing wall, grown men talking to themselves bowing and weaving and rambling like the just did a hit of acid.

Billion or so Muslims bent over four times a day, chanting and rambling facing meca. Im sure there is a bit more than Ala Akbur.

Budists, arogant little buggers, wont speak to you, their meditating. What is going on in those heads?

Christains, every easter they nail a bearded guy to a cross celibrating death..Someone kills your family, your cool with it, god will venge you..

For climate religion….You guys need to come up with an insane thing to do..if you want it to stick..

#99 Freddie on 11.26.15 at 11:16 pm

Here is a term that has not been in our lexicon for a very long time – saving for. We used to save for. Save for a bike, save for a car, save for a TV, save for Christmas, save for a vacation. Now we borrow because we think we are richer than we are (because someone told us that we are richer than we think). I remember having a conversation with my long dead grandmother (born in 1905.) She related how despite poor wages, with two small children, her and my grandfather managed to save $1 per week, every week. She lived this fugal lifestyle her whole life. She never spent a nickel of her OAS – she banked every penny of it. I supposed that I inherited this fugally. I have a paid for house, no debt and too much money in my RRSP (I be paying to much tax when I am forced to take it out.) However, I must admit, that I always wondered how all my neighbours seemed to have such nice cars, when all I could afford was my old clunkers. Now I know, I saved for and they borrowed.

#100 Darryl on 11.26.15 at 11:16 pm

#74 Newmomtotwins

Neither.

With Mortgage up for renewal, sell and avoid as much penalty as you can. Rent a Town home for 24 months, put $300K in the bank, and breast feed those twins. Then you wait… buy back in mortgage free.

Unless you really love the house, then stay and take the super awesome 5 year fixed rate and relax.

#101 GS on 11.26.15 at 11:22 pm

There is no real US recovery Garth. The world is in pre collapse mode. You are dead wrong on so many fronts including precious metals. I will say; you do know of Canadian real estate though. Thanks for the entertainment. .

I said sell gold. Then it fell $900 an ounce. Yeah, wrong call. — Garth

#102 Ontario's Left Coast on 11.26.15 at 11:36 pm

It’s almost as though every night’s blog post could be titled Fu*#ed. Amidst the non-stop gloom and doom, remember that bright, hardworking people will ALWAYS be able to make a buck and get ahead. Just my two cents’ worth ’cause I’m an optimistic type of guy…

#103 Washed Up Lawyer on 11.26.15 at 11:43 pm

#92 Smoking Man on 11.26.15 at 10:49 pm

We need a Canadian version of Putin..
*****************************

You and I have common ground on a few things, JD excepted. I am a mild fan of Putin. Note that every time Putin takes the ice against Larionov, Krutov, Bure and Makarov, he scores 8 goals. He just needs an X Junior hardrock blueliner to back him up when things get nasty and he would boost his goal production to Gretzky levels. Or, the Leafs should sign him.

#104 Ontario's Left Coast on 11.26.15 at 11:46 pm

#90 Leo Trollstoy on 11.26.15 at 10:48 pm
Got a CLS550 this week.

Sweet ride, enjoy!

#105 Patrick on 11.26.15 at 11:52 pm

#81 Washed Up Lawyer on 11.26.15 at 10:21 pm
Re-branding and marketing campaigns cost money. Garth knows that as he knows people in the field. That is why the CEOs of five major oil sands companies were on the stage with Ms. Notley for the announcement.

It would be no fun to arrive in Paris only to have people yell “dirty oil”, “environmental laggards” and “OIL CREEPS” at you. The whole world is pointing their finger at us, including the Pontiff.

If it helps promote a pipeline to tidewater, the hiring of pipeliners and haul truck drivers, it may have a net positive benefit.
________________________________

So you think that Notley isn’t trying to hurt the O&G industry, just giving it a fresher, greener look? Do you think that she is willing/hoping to see oil production expand in Alberta? She is actually pro-pipeline and will help get one built by rebranding the province as environmentally responsible?

This might reduce some of the resistance we see right now to pipelines. Just not sure I can believe it given her track record and policies.

It doesn’t line-up with the rhetoric in the media on her either. But If I remember correctly you live in fort mac and work in o&g, so from ground zero.

I heard she capped oil sands emissions at 100 megatonnes CO2, when they currently produce 70, in the new carbon tax bill. O&G exec’s were happy about it and are calling her collaborative.

Surprised to see big dipper agreeing with you tho. Either that or I mis-interpreted your whole post.

#106 When will they raise rates? on 11.26.15 at 11:53 pm

“There’ll be no 40-year amortizations, interest buy-downs, foreclosure moratorium, reduced downpayments or rate holiday.”

See, this is the part I’m not so sure of…

RE being such a large part of the economy, I’m not convinced that they won’t try any or all of the above to keep the bubble inflated – or at least, to lessen the impact of a major correction.

I feel as though in the end, irresponsible debt-saturated Canadians who drove up the prices in the first place, will get taken care of when SHTF, at the expense of ALL of us.

One way or another, in the aftermath of the RE carnage, we will be asked to “Pay our fair share” to “Help average Canadians”.

>:(

Watch…

#107 When will they raise rates? on 11.26.15 at 11:56 pm

… When in reality, my “Fair share” of this mess equals exactly ZERO.

#108 Rexx Rock on 11.27.15 at 12:03 am

I’m sadly going back to Canada the land of the not free and debt slaves on Tuesday.My time in Mexico for 1 month was wonderful.Sunny warm weather and happy friendly people.$1000 cad for a single or $1300 for a couple can lead a nice comfortable life here in PV Mexico.Go to Mexico and save 1/3 on dental as one American told me while waiting in the dental office for his treatment.Canada is one big con game,the big scam for dumb downed ,debt driven society.

So stay. — Garth

#109 obie oflaherty on 11.27.15 at 12:08 am

Karma 3

Potato famine in Canada, and everyone moves to Ireland causing the small emerald isle to sink…

#110 obie oflaherty on 11.27.15 at 12:15 am

Garth

Isn’t going long USD/CAD in the forex market the easiest way to hedge?

#111 Smoking Man on 11.27.15 at 12:25 am

I’ve just closed my eyes again
Climbed aboard the dream weaver train
Driver take away my worries of today
And leave tomorrow behind
Ooooh, dream weaver
I believe you can get me through the night
Ooooh, dream weaver
I believe we can reach the morning light
Fly me high through the starry skies
Maybe to an astral plane
Cross the highways of fantasy
Help me to forget todays pain
Ooooh, dream weaver
I believe you can get me through the night
Ooooh, dream weaver
I believe we can reach the morning light
Though the dawn may be coming soon
There still may be some time
Fly me away to the bright side of the moon
And meet me on the other side
Ooooh, dream weaver
I believe you can get me through the night
Ooooh, dream weaver
I believe we can reach the morning light
Dream weaver
Dream weaver

#112 OXI in GREECE on 11.27.15 at 12:34 am

For climate religion….You guys need to come up with an insane thing to do..if you want it to stick..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

How about giving thanks in your shorts and t shirt in a field every January 1st for the glorious warm weather?

oh wait…….its -2 in Vancouver -40 in Regina and -20 in Toronto…..and two years ago the great lakes COMPLETELY froze over.

The Govt and Media drivel is nearing red line on the gauge. They are not going to be able to keep up these multiple layers of BS much longer.

#113 Tony on 11.27.15 at 12:38 am

Re: #2 Sceptic on 11.26.15 at 7:36 pm

In today’s environment (not so in the past) the combination of falling corporate profits and rising interest rates is the worst possible scenario for junk bonds. Many decades ago before they were called junk bonds, rising interest rates would have made quote junk bonds rise because of so few corporate bankruptcies back then.

#114 JR on 11.27.15 at 12:55 am

I wish there was a like button for some of these posts.
Like the one about American thanksgiving and then everyone going to Walmart.. Hahahahaha

#115 Interstellar Old Yeller on 11.27.15 at 12:58 am

#102 Ontario’s Left Coast on 11.26.15 at 11:36 pm
It’s almost as though every night’s blog post could be titled Fu*#ed. Amidst the non-stop gloom and doom, etc., etc.

Aw, come on, this is nothing! Remember Misery Week?

I actually felt (personally) good after reading tonight’s post. I have just about everything on Garth’s to-do list already done. Nothing worse than getting good advice (have read every blog post for almost two years, now) and doing nothing with it. Thank you for sharing your expertise, Garth.

#116 Ticky Shooters on 11.27.15 at 1:11 am

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/vancouver+considers+cent+property+hike+2016/11546674/story.html?__lsa=9fe7-a361

Vancouver considers 2.3 per cent property tax hike for 2016
On Thursday the city released its draft budget and five-year financial plan, saying the proposed tax increase is in line with inflation..”

the squeezing of blood from a stone has started and will be coming soon to a market near you!

#117 Washed Up Lawyer on 11.27.15 at 1:11 am

#105 Patrick on 11.26.15 at 11:52 pm

You are on the right track. Yes, the oil sands will be permitted to increase the 70 megatonnes/year CO2 emissions to 100 by 2030. I cannot drone on and on here like a Progressive Conservative candidate on the stump because I have sullied this comment section enough to test even Hon. Hombre’s patience.

I’m headed down the hall to 350.org and Flames.com. They have cleaner washrooms.

#118 Darryl on 11.27.15 at 1:16 am

#106 When will they raise rates?

How could “helping” those with poor debt ratios be justified?

The extremely over leveraged have done more than just buy RE. These days, the principal amount owing is for things like renovations, vacations in Mexico (#108 Rexx Rock), luxury cars (#90 Leo Trollstoy), and countless debt consolidations for all those financed shot rounds. The HELOC is probably THE WORST (or the most brilliant) invention ever… and it’s certainly helped keep our economy moving along.

What resonates with me reading this blog (and Garth eludes to it all the time), is this Rock Star lifestyle we are all living is merely just a “Stack of Cards” that will soon collapse. We were supposed to remain privileged, not become entitled.

So until they seismic upgrade every hospital and elementary school in 604, tell J.T. I am not paying for someone else’s hangover.

#119 Ex-Cowtown on 11.27.15 at 1:27 am

#31 Warren – the lagging indicator on 11.26.15 at 8:21 pm
Ex-Cowtown – “The Climate Change Machine will claim that their “policies” are now “winning the day” and “saving the planet” so we should give them even MORE $$$”. Oh my, I really never thought about it that way. Do you think the media and the far left are that daft or is it that they are so ideologically driven that they know it is a lie but do not care?

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Science has been irrelevant to the Climate Machine for years now. All you have to do is listen to Obama, Clinton, Kerry and Bernie Sanders say that ISIS was spawned by climate change to know that these people have drunk deeply of their own bath water.

There is not a scientist (other than a “political scientist”) who does not roll their eyes at this claptrap. Oddly enough, studies have shown that the more highly educated a person is in science, the less they buy into the Climate Change Machine. Hence the strong push back from professional engineers and professional earth scientists. They smell the BS all over it.

The most hardened Climate Machine supporters tend to be those in the social sciences and arts. Think of entertainers like Neil Young, Leo di Caprio and Darryl Hannah. Love their music and films, but these people burn more oil in a weekend than several families do in a year. Like all elites (T2 included), they are insulated from the implications of their own actions.

The Climate Change Machine knows that this is a really just a massive PR push and is shameless on re-casting and re-appropriating whatever ideas that they need to to win. Kind of like Jacques Parizeau in Quebec, with his obsession about drafting a “winning question” for sovereignty. To these types of zealots, asking a clear simple question and living with the answer is never an option, as an informed public may reject their proposition and they will not risk the rejection.

So is the Climate Change Machine ignorant of science? Not at all. But they are guilty of distorting and willfully ignoring it, which makes them far more dangerous.

#120 BC Guy on 11.27.15 at 1:30 am

It always galls me when I hear the news media describe Canada as a rich country, e.g. Canada is a rich country and therefore should take in more refugees.

In reality, Canada is a poor country. Poor because much of the wealth we see is an illusion, an illusion propped up by record amounts of debt: federal government debt, provincial debt, municipal debt, corporate debt, personal debt – all at epic levels.

The 1%ers and 5%ers of course have real wealth, but the rest of the so-called affluence is fueled by debt. Canada has a lot of land and natural resources, but it is locked up by the 1%. For most is a poor country deeply in debt.

#121 Frank on 11.27.15 at 1:33 am

Between Victoria Housing and Brian Ripley I’m not sure whose charts are worse. The former are shitty ASCII and the latter are so packed they’re unreadable.

#122 Great Canadian Bubble Co. on 11.27.15 at 2:07 am

To be fair, with HELOCs and other sources available, and with banks low saving account rates, there is really no point of keeping $1000 in cash for emergencies anymore. Outdated personal finance recommendation Garth.

#123 kommykim on 11.27.15 at 2:18 am

RE:

#98 Smoking Man on 11.26.15 at 11:14 pm
For climate religion….You guys need to come up with an insane thing to do..if you want it to stick..

We already practice the scientific method which is pretty radical to some people.

#124 turn of the tide on 11.27.15 at 2:25 am

Talk about sheep and group think! This is a perfect and depressing example..

Replace dress with real state and voilà.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/trending/50-female-meteorologists-buy-the-same-dress-viral-sensation-1.3337634

#125 Gordons Gin on 11.27.15 at 2:44 am

“Well, the 1%ers who hang around here probably think they’re fine. But Karma being the bitch she is, this will end up biting everyone.”

Nope..it’s fine….really. Those of us who’ve hedged against everything….AND…are debt free….AND…having a foreign income…..AND …own our house free and clear….and have several skill sets that allow us to work internationally…..and have 5 to 10 years in cash against all contingencies.

Years ago I designed for certain clients what I called ‘the ‘f’ you resume’. This is a financial model that hedges against everything and anything going wrong..individually or all at the same time. The idea is that you can go one a permanent holiday whenever you like….and can choose to give the market, the job, the country, the currency etc etc the Big ‘F’ You any time you like.

Funny enough this idea has become quite famous…I hear people repeating it socially and directly to me…when people don’t know who I am.

Famously the line turned up in a script for a little movie called ‘The Gambler’ for John Goodman to say….as I had collected a clientele primarily of people working in the film business….in front of and behind the camera…writers etc.

The ‘F You’ is a personal and financial plan on which to organize your life around. I got the architecture of the idea from a line in The Wealth of Nations…Adam Smith…..where Smith says….”When I get the feeling I want to speculate… I leave the place I am and go somewhere far away…until the feeling goes away.

This would be a good time to have the ‘F You’ working for you. personally I’m headed to Thailand as soon as I take the tree down….with no intention of coming back until a new dawn breaks over Canada….that may be years. It was easy to get a working visa there…and the pay is fantastic for highly educated specialists. Sunshine and swimming pools friends…and remember to ‘F YOU’ your personal life so that politicians don’t catch you with your pants down.

#126 Again Climate Change...Really? on 11.27.15 at 2:49 am

#72 Big Dipper

And not one says:

We have tested our models and accurately predicted the past 5000 years of climate with a certainty of 95% or better.

Why: because they can’t.

And if it is true there is more CO2 than in the past making today different, what makes them believe they can predict the future with models that have no statistical reference data to work with?

Means no probability can be assigned. Means roll the dice in terms of accuracy and forget about precision.

Go get a science research degree, experience statistical rigor for yourself and then examine the climate change model algorithms and their statistical assumptions.

When they cannot accurately model the past, what makes you believe they can model the future?

Why people resist their claims.

#127 SWL1976 on 11.27.15 at 2:51 am

#112 OXI in GREECE

For climate religion….You guys need to come up with an insane thing to do..if you want it to stick..

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

How about giving thanks in your shorts and t shirt in a field every January 1st for the glorious warm weather?

oh wait…….its -2 in Vancouver -40 in Regina and -20 in Toronto…..and two years ago the great lakes COMPLETELY froze over.

—————————————-

I think you have officially lost it there OXI in GREECE

It’s a shame as not more then a few weeks ago you made a brilliant statement about the Middle East, but lately you sound like a babbling idiot. If you dislike Vancouver that much that you insist on calling in holecouver then you are free to leave at anytime… Or has Nestle’ locked you into one of their 75 shitty production jobs at their bottling facility that you claim has nothing to do with corproatoctracy?

Anyways, I also live on the wet coast, which coincidentally isn’t so wet these days which also might be why its -2 at night. Ever hear of the term clear and cold? What ever happened to the endless rain we get? Now we seem to get all our rain for the week, or month within hours, or a single day.

Can you explain that?

I also work work in northern Alberta and recently had a conversation with a project manager for civil construction work, and he was quite pleased with the warm frost free fall we had this year. The mild fall was a relief for him as they were behind schedule and wouldn’t have been able to complete their work scope without the unseasonably warm weather.

I also checked the forecast for Regina and it is not -40. Not even close, a mere -17 and warming to about zero tomorrow and staying that way for the next 7 days

I full well know, and understand that carbon taxes are a complete scam. I am not an idiot

Now that being said I can clearly see and understand that things are changing fast with the climate we live in. To truly see and understand this one must look beyond their front porch

#128 Why not? on 11.27.15 at 3:15 am

Why will the govt not reintroduce 40-year mortgagages and other measures like it? They have done it before, in 2009-2010. This time the economic fallout would be even greater if they don’t act. What is your rationale, Garth!

#129 bdy sktrn on 11.27.15 at 3:50 am

I heard she capped oil sands emissions at 100 megatonnes CO2, when they currently produce 70, in the new carbon tax bill. O&G exec’s were happy about it and are calling her collaborative.

————————————-
oil bosses are ok with 100 – plenty of room to grow(if oil ever comes back) over the next 4 years. once the price is back up and notley has cemented the ndp to 4 more decades of obscurity, 100 becomes 200 or whatever the market demands. no problem.

#130 piccaso on 11.27.15 at 4:23 am

#66 Retired WI Boomer

Working in the US ?

I worked all over the U.S. in the past and it was fantastic. Lot’s of work and great wages. It seems US companies aren’t as willing to sponsor with TN’s now days… they’ll even say that in their job add a lot of times.

But renting I could up and leave in a heart beat if the right opportunity comes along.

Chin up

#131 TRT on 11.27.15 at 4:52 am

Hedged 100% against the Loonie. Why?

Know enough that rates in Canada will be held low by the same powers that are responsible for the RE mess.

A no brainer.

If I’m wrong? Then houses get cheaper.

Win. Win.

#132 bdy sktrn on 11.27.15 at 5:05 am

#112 OXI in GREECE on 11.27.15 at 12:34 am
For climate religion….You guys need to come up with an insane thing to do..if you want it to stick..
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

How about giving thanks in your shorts and t shirt in a field every January 1st for the glorious warm weather?
————————————–
all while holding ones breath to prevent CO2 leakage!

————————-
just tonight it hit me, it’s time to shut up and let the eco-warriors take full control of the discussion.

i had to make 2 return trips across vancouver just tonight – from the east thru the dt, and then up granville a bit and back. as the first trip started just after the rush died down, it, like the others, was fast, efficient and quite enjoyable compared to daytime travel.

more climate head bobbers= less cars on the road(and specifically slow ass prius drivers who are too terrified to enter an intersection when waiting for a left turn or who pull away from a highway jam at 50k with unobstructed blacktop ahead )

i say fantastic. bring on more suzuki doomsday predictions and keep those cars parked.
greenies, i truly appreciate your efforts, thank you.

since i now get 90% of my gas in the US i think we need higher carbon taxes too (the ‘muricans will get a carbon tax when hell freezes over and even then it will be pennies)

—————————-
other items

1.picasso – maybe your expert at tcom stuff, but it seems you suck at sales. no job=sales job (until you can make one sale and go back to telecom).
get your butt out to bc and hustle a tiny bit and you will get work in your field. find out who is the decision maker – use what ever means it takes to get in front of him and convince him you can make him more profitable. stand out. everyone else sends in a resume and then does nothing. do more. showing up in person and ready to work(even uninvited) goes a long way. bring coffee/food to the office. kiss some ass. learn the business challenges and offer solutions. be likeable.

you have an big edge – an ontario/alta/american (ie non-BC) work ethic. i had one when i came here. most lose it within a few years of arriving. i sure did – went from super worker to full time slacker in 5 years. work sucks compared to our year round recreational oportunities -skiing, sailing, hiking, fishing, walking the seawall etc so most of us try to work as little as possible.

i came to BC in 95, broke as a joke, the econ was weak, ndp was about to ravage much of bc resource industry, i knew no one at all and less about the industries where i might find work (came from auto mfg so that was out)
all i knew was that i WAS going to live in van and get a sales/engineering type job of some sort.(for which i had zero experience)

3 months later i had a better job than i could have ever imagined, a brand new loaded SUV, a smoking hot CEO-smart, yet chill GF, and was regularly training in southern california. and it’s just gotten way better from there.

Van is still booming – cranes everywhere for the last 18 years and not slowing. population swelling. global cash pouring in – there are many opportunities. many.

Alta will just be a bad memory. When i left the auto biz and GM and windsor in 95 it felt risky to walk away from a good steady job that i truly enjoyed – turns out it was stepping out of the path of the oncoming bus as the industry promptly got creamed.

BC has a very bright future and there is room for anyone who can hustle a bit.

#133 bdy sktrn on 11.27.15 at 5:38 am

Barbara Yaffe: Real estate market mayhem comes to Squamish

BY BARBARA YAFFE, VANCOUVER SUN NOVEMBER 26, 2015

Vancouverites look far and wide for housing they can afford

Ninety minutes. That’s all the time it took earlier this month for buyers to snap up every last one of ParkHouse Squamish Ltd.’s 65 pre-sale condo units.

Squamish, it appears, is just close enough to Vancouver to fall victim to the region’s property mayhem.

The condo units, priced from $167,000 to $450,000, are located in a four-storey, wood-frame building in the downtown area.

Not only does Squamish, with a population of 17,500, offer detached homes selling for less than $1 million, but the 2010 upgrade to the Sea to Sky Highway shaved 10 minutes from the commute into downtown Vancouver, now about 45 minutes. That is about the same driving time as for residents of Maple Ridge, Surrey or Abbotsford.

And people have noticed.
http://www.vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/barbara+yaffe+real+estate+market+mayhem+comes/11546856/story.html
——————————-
so the very opposite of what most here have been saying for YEARS.

land shortage? or do ppl just enjoy the drive along the sound? (so very beautiful but twisty as heck)

my ex neighbour and friend bought a house in sqmsh with near 1/2ac lot a few years back. i almost suggested this blog to her at the time. thank god i didn’t. she is a care aid , low pay. never an extra penny around. they stretched and paid 550 for a house. the gains on that house (300k-ish)are now larger than what they could have saved over 30yrs working. i am so glad for them.

#134 Ralph Cramdown on 11.27.15 at 5:54 am

#85 dogman01 — “Been a war on the savers and rewards to the little debt piggies.”

Ten year compounded return on AT&T 8.59%, and on TLT, a long US government bond fund, 6.51%. For IEF, a 7-10 year government bond fund, 5.5%. If you think things were better when banks paid 5% and ‘savers’ lost 1/2 to inflation and the other 1/2 to taxes, you may be suffering from money illusion.

Investors, even conservative ones, have done just fine. Passbook clutching geriatrics who haven’t noticed that the banks haven’t really needed their money for the past few years, not so much.

#135 Ralph Cramdown on 11.27.15 at 6:22 am

More on Neil MacDonald’s “war on savers” piece. He writes:

“Older people, with their much shorter horizons, cannot afford to take the risks involved in playing stock markets.

Instead, they put their money into government bonds, or annuities, or things like GICs, which are safer, but which now pay returns so paltry that they can return less money once inflation is taken into account.”

There are two problems here. One is the newfangled theory that ultraconservative savers are somehow entitled to a return on their risk-free investments. It wasn’t so long ago that Telephone was called a”widows and orphans'” stock, but now even it is apparently too risky for crochety seniors.

The second problem is that this is issue is framed in terms of somebody who has suddenly become old and monied, forced to live on today’s bond coupon. I’m pretty sure that most people gradually become older and richer. Anyone who’s been holding govvies rationally over the last little while (say in a fund that rolls down the yield curve) has done well.

If you can’t afford to risk your money in blue chip stocks or longer dated government bonds, and you can’t afford not to, maybe just be done with it and admit that you didn’t save enough, and you’re poor.

#136 ANON on 11.27.15 at 7:43 am

#18 LarryB on 11.26.15 at 7:57 pm

Food, Shelter and income well below our cost of living. We are kind of waiting for the Armageddon, stocked up and can survive. How about you?

Being a contrarian, we try the opposite: having the cost of living well below our income. :)
Basically expecting the same thing, not necessarily waiting for it, but here it comes, nonetheless.

DXY 100, China down hard, this could be a Black Friday, indeed. That would be quite ironic.

#137 saskatoon on 11.27.15 at 8:06 am

for all the climate change enthusiasts:

https://www.yahoo.com/tech/s/whats-carbon-footprint-email-102042606.html

your beliefs demand you to STFU.

sociopathic.
control freak.
hypocrites.

#138 randy on 11.27.15 at 8:18 am

“The very politicians who aided and abetted this mess are unable to fix it – since the Bank of Canada has already slashed the cost of money and the feds are broke.”

Nope, The very politicians who aided and abetted this mess are unable to fix it – because they were booted out of office in October.

Rightly so.

#139 Matteo on 11.27.15 at 8:56 am

In math class the teacher asked Johnny this question. If you have 14 sheep and one jumps the fence how many sheep are left. None Johnny replied. Boy you really are stupid remarked the teacher. Yes but I know my sheep answered Johnny.

#140 Mr. Frugal on 11.27.15 at 9:16 am

Justin Trudeau has said that he will pull our fighter jets but will keep other military planes flying in the war on ISIS. So we won’t bomb ISIS but we we will re-fuel the coalition planes that are bombing ISIS. Sure, make the snowballs and get someone else to throw them. The kid needs to hang out with Putin and get a few lessons on hows it’s done.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/government-position-fighter-jets-1.3338186

#141 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.27.15 at 9:33 am

@#42 My Life is a pile of Manure

From my personal experience I’d say that the Environic poll is a tad conservative.

One friend who is a city employee earning 80k lives paycheque to paycheque, no savings, line of credit and Visa maxed….minimal payments to keep the dogs at bay. 6 year punative car loan, Flies to Vegas 3 times a year and goes apeshit….all on credit… rents.
Another former friend used his house like a never ending credit machine until the bank took it 2 years ago. No savings, no credit cards, no credit. Doesnt drive because his car died and the dealerships wont touch him. He’s an investment advisor. He takes the bus. Rents a basement suite off an ex.
Another friend in his 60’s with a small construction company owes huge money to CRA, bounces cheques everywhere, drives a rusty shitpile, owes money to employees, suppliers, etc. ,buys useless shiny “bling” like a crow mesmerized over a pile of broken glass to make himself “feel good”. Rents, no savings, etc.etc.etc.

Another guy is an accountant, makes 100k. Zero savings, rents, thinks nothing of eating out 7 days a week and dropping 200 bucks on a meal. No RRSP’s , no stocks, nothing. But he buys a new set of golf clubs every 2 years, wears $500 shoes and even gets his T-shirts dry cleaned

Nope. None of them have an ounce of self restraint when it comes to saving, preparing or thinking more than 2 weeks into the future.
But ask them an obscure question about some sport statistic and they will respond with the correct answer faster than google.

These people will never own a house, condo, mobile home whatever unless they win the lottery. They’re all boomers with a future staring them in the face of working until they die or are laid off/fired
And because I’ve saved for the future and a soon to be approaching retirement….I’m cheap.

Priorities

#142 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.27.15 at 9:40 am

@#133 Bdy Skytrn

A friend of mine bought a house in Squamish 20 years ago. Nice place. I helped his family move in and stayed the night…….
3am I woke to the sound of what I thought was a train running through the living room
BWAAAAAA ! BWAAAA !
BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
went the train horn.
Squamish, so beautiful, so peaceful…. sooooooo not for me.
And then we have this little project that may affect house prices in the near future.

http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwjugvaU3bDJAhXQS4gKHTbrAJsQFgg2MAI&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.vancouverobserver.com%2Fnews%2Fmass-opposition-squamish-lng-plant-sparks-calls-citizens-vote&usg=AFQjCNEHTtuxfmvaglWiJmG5z90ybMPWOQ&sig2=adZYPOZr8ZFOWnnXs486FQ&bvm=bv.108194040,d.cGU

#143 Paul on 11.27.15 at 9:43 am

Well just received this looking for a donation,who to you believe?

Paul

The Liberals gave a fiscal update on Friday … and it’s a worrying sign of things to come.
The facts are grim. While our Conservative government left a surplus of over $1 billion as of the end of September, the Liberals are claiming to find themselves $3 billion in deficit already!
While Liberals rush into big deficits, our Conservative Party will fight for responsible spending and balanced budgets. Help us in the fight with a small donation today!
Paul, it’s more than a little concerning how the Liberals want Canada to go into deficit so incredibly quickly.
Canada’s finances are too important. We will continue to closely watch their spending, and we will call them out for trying to recklessly plunge Canada back into the red.

#144 Q2 Class 2-B-C-2 Duplex Drive on 11.27.15 at 9:52 am

Garth –

Canadians couldn’t wait to vote out Harper and replace him with T2, an economic ignoramus on a par with his father. Higher taxes are coming – and not just on the 1% – carbon taxes, greenhouse gas taxes, you name it. All this in a failing economy and rising interest rates.

You’re right, there will be a political price to pay. If T2 turns out to be a dumb as I expect him to be – and I’d be very surprised if he wasn’t – the Liberals will be gone next election. Then the economic healing can start, unless the Liberals have REALLY buggered things up.

#145 Ex-Cowtown on 11.27.15 at 9:59 am

123 kommykim on 11.27.15 at 2:18 am
RE:
#98 Smoking Man on 11.26.15 at 11:14 pm
For climate religion….You guys need to come up with an insane thing to do..if you want it to stick..

We already practice the scientific method which is pretty radical to some people.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Utter garbage. The Climate Machine knows what science is but finds it counterproductive to it’s cause so it ignores it. The Climate Machine has even tried in the past to re-define the Scientific Method to get it in line with the Climate Religion. Einstein would be spinning in his grave.

The Climate Machine pays lip service to science, but behaves more like a Catholic priest who preaches piety all week and then heads home to tuck into to juicy T-Bone on Friday night.

http://notrickszone.com/2015/11/25/climategeology-professor-friedrich-karl-ewert-says-standards-of-science-not-met-by-climate-models/#sthash.HRQB9mO8.dpbs

The only science that the Climate Machine practices is “political science”.

#146 Ole Doberman on 11.27.15 at 10:26 am

Gartho – good morning.

Do you think Canadian stocks with business in the US will outperform? What better way to get exposure to a strong US dollar via a cheap Canadian dollar.

#147 Julia on 11.27.15 at 10:45 am

There was another stat posted recently about the percentage of people who were not paying back the Home Buyers Plan draws. That was pretty high too I believe.
Anybody remember?

#148 IHCTD9 on 11.27.15 at 10:47 am

#236 Ralph Cramdown on 11.26.15 at 5:35 pm

It’s a sad testament to our education system that people think this way, and are completely shameless in admitting it in public. The Soviet Union went from a rural country full of illiterate serfs in 1917 to a dominant superpower that many western (including American) leaders thought might well conquer the world less than 50 years later, while industrializing and becoming one of the most technologically advanced countries much more rapidly than countries had previously modernized. All with no private sector whatsoever. Ten years after it collapsed in the 1990’s, “everybody” knew it was inevitable, though even the CIA hadn’t seen it coming when it happened. And now, 25 years later, nobody even admits it existed.

That isn’t the only example, merely the most extreme. There’s lots of countries and empires, past and present, who have accomplished great things with a mix of the public and private sector. To think otherwise is to buy into propaganda promulgated by people who are much richer than you are, and still pulling away.
____________________________________________

I don’t know about you Cram, but I’m still waiting for Russia to become anything better than a shit hole where anyone not working for the government would love to get the hell out.

Don’t be sad Ralph, rather educate this shameless knuckle-dragger as to how Power Blades, who existed only because government was paying the bills indirectly – did anything better than inhale these same funds?

Did they carry on in the Private Sector after using government funds to establish itself?

Did any of those (I’ll call them temporary) jobs at PB become long term careers?

PB made the decision to close after certain contracts dried up – which contracts were those? Who was paying for them? Are they still a financial liability to anyone? Who?

Why did PB not just secure contracts in the Private Sector doing the exact same work after said contracts were complete?

I suspect you are going to have a hard time staying on topic with this one, but I’d love to hear how Government and industry have come together for the betterment of Canadians (not Russians) in the case of Power Blades.

#149 Chris Nemelka advanced human on 11.27.15 at 11:10 am

Chris In Nanaimo:

Awesome writing as usual.

Nanaimo. Yes. Run by motorcycle gangs, entrepreneurs, B.C. ferries, government jobs, and welfare recipients.

Here’s how interviews go in Nanaimo: You have less than 60 seconds to make an impression. It’s the “village people” mentality there. Once you get the job, if you do, if they like you, you can practically do anything. Then again, clients in Nanaimo expect that if you work at Burger King you are a professional, this is your job title as “required” and you should be expected to scramble like crazy whenever business comes. Go into Costco there across from the mall. The name tags of workers will say “worked here since 1996”. You figure out why. Blue collar workers rule the island as does the mentality. The island mentality is bizarre. Having lived there in 2003-2007, my advice to anyone is “dont go there”. If you want a place to go, Parksville. And avoid Port Alberni. Sawmills are shut down(hello Somass?) and due to the small town size, people are in other people’s business. And the health care there in Port Alberni? Go see your doctor and say you have chest pain. “That’s just anxiety”. And then you die several days later. No stress test, no thallium scan, maybe a basic ECG. And the retirees dont need the money, so they look the other way when they see the Ph.D. burger flipper.

And real estate values on the island remain reasonable because no bridge is built to the mainland. Why? 1) Expense, 2) people dont want it, 3) water is very deep, 4)B.C. Ferries is a monopoly.

Enjoy “island time” because it sucks.

#150 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.27.15 at 11:25 am

Paul, Paul, Paul….how delusional can one be?

I pity you.

#151 Keith in Calgary on 11.27.15 at 11:34 am

What carbon tax ? LOL !!

If Notley raises gas prices 6 cents a litre because of taxes, my SMART car will cost a whole $1.74 extra to fill up once every 3 weeks.

The poor SOB driving the 4X4 crew cab one ton dually needing to pump 138 litres of the good stuff into his rig every week, will pay an extra $33.12 every month assuming he fills up once a week.

OOoohhhh the pain………..

#152 M on 11.27.15 at 11:38 am

Hushh you silly Garth lol

Repeat after me

FED doesn t raise rates, Bond market raise rates.

..yes.. rates will go higher but only because the bond market will make Jenny to buy depends and eat back her own words.

Canadian rates will go through the roof also because bond market says so.

..and by the way.. CAD $ is NOT exchangeble at ANY bank anymore in a certain east european country best left un-named. 6 years ago the loonie was exchangeable EVERYWHERE, ..now… not so much

This tells me volumes.

#153 M on 11.27.15 at 11:39 am

..and yes.. Finlandia will be gracefully accepted by moi from you

#154 Ralph Cramdown on 11.27.15 at 11:40 am

#148 IHCTD9 — “I suspect you are going to have a hard time staying on topic with this one, but I’d love to hear how Government and industry have come together for the betterment of Canadians (not Russians) in the case of Power Blades.”

Sorry, but do you want me to argue that governments worldwide haven’t been responsible for thousands of poor investments, failures and outright frauds… just like the private sector?

#155 Dup on 11.27.15 at 11:45 am

Retired boomers will hold on to their homes until they are dust.

They are too afraid to let go and invest in order to live a stress free healthier life that does not depend on house maintenance and brick and mortar.

If they have any money laying around they would rather get more brick and build another garage/ie”Canadian shed” where they can horde more crap they cant seem to let go even at 70’s.

They would rather eat bricks and cat food until they croak than they wonder about where did their health go.

#156 Broke Dick on 11.27.15 at 11:50 am

Turns out at least four of the ten people you hang with or are related to, are idiots. Sadly, this might include you.-GT
================================
Tell me something I didn’t know.

#157 IHCTD9 on 11.27.15 at 12:04 pm

#154 Ralph Cramdown on 11.27.15 at 11:40 am
#148 IHCTD9 — “I suspect you are going to have a hard time staying on topic with this one, but I’d love to hear how Government and industry have come together for the betterment of Canadians (not Russians) in the case of Power Blades.”

Sorry, but do you want me to argue that governments worldwide haven’t been responsible for thousands of poor investments, failures and outright frauds… just like the private sector?
___________________________________________

Yep, I thought so…

#158 kommykim on 11.27.15 at 12:16 pm

RE:#145 Ex-Cowtown on 11.27.15 at 9:59 am

I’m not even going to argue with you. It looks like you lost the debate all by yourself.

#159 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.27.15 at 12:54 pm

@151 Keith in CAL-

True but the downside is you’re driving a Smart car. Someone might see you.

#160 Randy on 11.27.15 at 12:56 pm

#144 Q2 Class 2-B-C-2 Duplex Drive on 11.27.15 at 9:52 am

Harper and his gang ran up MASSIVE deficits and sold off government assets paid for BY YOU.

Harper and his gang are the ones who propped up housing with 40 year amortizations, and with sub prime type mortgages backed by CMHC … using YOUR TAX Dollars.

To blame the new Liberal government for the damage the Cons did is inexcusably ignorant.

Consider: If Mr. Turner is right (and I think he is…in fact…I KNOW that he is) the real estate market is going to face a significant correction. Maybe even a bubble bursting. All in the next four years while the Libs are in power.

AND, knowing that the damage that they did will cause this, the CONS carefully constructed things (in my opinion) so that CMHC (again YOUR tax dollars) will bear the brunt of the damage.

Yup, seems to me that the dumb asses that rang up unmanageable debts will likely be “bailed out” by the rest of us, when CMHC has to pony up for their mistakes using YOUR tax dollars.

And that means that YOUR taxes will increase to pay for it.

THAT is Harper’s legacy.

Another thing too…FWIW I suspect that Harper’s strategy was NOT to get re-elected this time.

Hell, for the first time ever the Cons weren’t even cheating election rules!

They know damn well that the damage that they’ve done is about to hit the fan. It’s going to be a tough four years and the Cons will try hard to blame the Liberals for it when all the liberals have done is inherit the massive mess that the Cons made with YOUR tax dollars and government assets.

No matter how you slice it, Canadians will pay dearly for what Harper did to us all.

Sadly, when it comes I expect to hear profoundly stupid millennials weeping “but I had granite counter tops and stainless appliances until the Liberals got in.”

That is what will come when the housing market “corrects”.

Mark my words.

#161 IHCTD9 on 11.27.15 at 12:57 pm

#144 Q2 Class 2-B-C-2 Duplex Drive on 11.27.15 at 9:52 am
Garth –

Canadians couldn’t wait to vote out Harper and replace him with T2, an economic ignoramus on a par with his father. Higher taxes are coming – and not just on the 1% – carbon taxes, greenhouse gas taxes, you name it. All this in a failing economy and rising interest rates.

You’re right, there will be a political price to pay. If T2 turns out to be a dumb as I expect him to be – and I’d be very surprised if he wasn’t – the Liberals will be gone next election. Then the economic healing can start, unless the Liberals have REALLY buggered things up.
___________________________________________

I’d love to agree with you, but I live in Ontario. We had disaster upon disaster piled on top of one another under McGuinty, so what did the Ontario voters do?

Gave Wynne a majority.

At this point I am more enticed by an individual effort to limit my exposure to government. The voters these days appear to think much different than I. When Wynne is done, she will have not eliminated the deficit, probably increased it. Meanwhile the Provincial debt will probably be up to 320-330 Billion by then.

In 10-20 years when all this debt gets rolled over, and all that which has happened in that period of time on top – I want to be extremely hard to tax…

#162 Chris on 11.27.15 at 1:03 pm

Meh – is this any different than it’s been for the last 5-10-20 years?? Show me the change, then I’ll get excited. Otherwise, who cares if some people transferred some money from their rainy day acct – that’s what it’s for, or if they borrowed from family until their next pay came in? “For example, more than one in three homeowners (38 per cent) were “caught short” at least once in the past year – where they didn’t have enough money in their bank accounts to cover expenses. While some of those caught short were able to access a line of credit (33 per cent) or rainy-day savings (23 per cent), others had to carry a balance on a high-interest credit card (32 per cent) or even borrow money from a family member (14 per cent).

#163 Smartalox on 11.27.15 at 1:17 pm

Heckler calls out Black Friday shoppers in San Diego:

http://www.inquisitr.com/410020/black-friday-heckler-calls-california-shoppers-brain-dead-materialistic-morons/#utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Inquisitr+%28Inquisitr%3A+All%29

Could be the conscience of a generation!

#164 (2'D)'D2' Big Boy on 11.27.15 at 1:29 pm

#148 IHCTD9

HUH?

The Soviet Union was largely built by slave labour, sir. Have you ever heard of the gulag? It was also built on lies – small wonder it eventually collapsed.

Such ignorance.

#165 Shelly Augustine on 11.27.15 at 1:41 pm

Trudeau’s ‘false sincerity’ on display.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/u-k-media-psychoanalyzes-trudeaus-patronising-handshake-with-british-prime-minister

Without the CBC to cover for him Trudeau is like a deer in the headlights. We should call him ‘the Saran Wrap PM’….’cause every one can see right through this duplicitous phony.

#166 bdy sktrn on 11.27.15 at 1:45 pm

#151 Keith in Calgary on 11.27.15 at 11:34 am
What carbon tax ? LOL !!

…, my SMART car…..

The poor SOB driving the 4X4 crew cab…

OOoohhhh the pain………..
———————————–
what about the pain of driving a smart car – now that’s pain that money can’t fix.

van has car2go carshare (smart cars)which i use a few times a year for one way trips. don’t know if it’s just those ones in particular but WTF is wrong with the transmissions in those things?!? the delay between 1 st and 2nd is long enough to pick up a hot coffee and take a sip and put it back in the cupholder. it’s got all the jam of a 49cc scooter with a 220lb rider. going uphill. with a cold engine.

the only fun part is seeing how fast you can kill the trees on the eco display.

#167 bdy sktrn on 11.27.15 at 1:48 pm

must be ppl out shopping today. costco stock is up.

#168 Panhead on 11.27.15 at 1:54 pm

#159 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.27.15 at 12:54 pm
@151 Keith in CAL-

True but the downside is you’re driving a Smart car. Someone might see you.

Just add some truck nutz …

#169 NextYear on 11.27.15 at 1:59 pm

If nothing bad happen between now and December to give the fed an excuse as to why they are not raising I hope you will finally realize that rate will not rise.

Well it will be next year… Why raise rates when only talking about it give you the same results as an actual hike. For how long have they been talking about it?? 4-5 years now??

#170 Ralph Cramdown on 11.27.15 at 2:21 pm

#161 IHCTD9 — “I’d love to agree with you, but I live in Ontario. We had disaster upon disaster piled on top of one another under McGuinty, so what did the Ontario voters do? Gave Wynne a majority.”

And the alternatives were? In the left corner, we had Andrea Horwath. In the previous legislature, owing to the Liberal minority and the PC refusal to support any government bills, the NDP were driving the bus, able to demand all kinds of not-totally-unreasonable legislation. The only way the NDP could have increased its power was to form a government, and THAT wasn’t going to happen, so their optimal strategy was to continue supporting the Liberals. Instead, they voted down the government. Who’d vote for those idiots?

In the right corner, Tim Hudak promised he’d fire 100,000 civil servants. “Elect me, and I’ll increase unemployment by 1.4%” turned out to be a losing strategy.

Instead of blaming the voters, opposition supporters need to focus on finding broadly electable leaders. Personally, I HATE situations where my governments don’t face an effective opposition, regardless of who’s sitting where. And I’m not planning on paying a lot of (or maybe any) Ontario tax in my dotage, either.

#171 OXI in GREECE on 11.27.15 at 2:30 pm

Happy Nobody Has Any Money To Spend On Red Friday Day !!!!

#172 IHCTD9 on 11.27.15 at 2:34 pm

#164 (2’D)’D2′ Big Boy on 11.27.15 at 1:29 pm
#148 IHCTD9

HUH?

The Soviet Union was largely built by slave labour, sir. Have you ever heard of the gulag? It was also built on lies – small wonder it eventually collapsed.

Such ignorance.
____________________________________________

I’ll assume you were replying to Ralph not me. I agree the Soviet Government – for a short while, built a strong military on the backs of [what was left of] it’s people. Just the kind of thing that happens when government and industry get together.

#173 OXI in GREECE on 11.27.15 at 2:40 pm

BTW….

So pretty boy just announced Canada is going to piss away 2.6 billion dollars on Global Warming. Your tax dollars at work.

I emailed the Liberals 10 days ago asking for “Their evidence of Global Warming. Surely you don’t go to Malta without a portfolio of scientific facts”.

I never got a response and keep getting voice mail when I call.

Nothing changes in Govt. Absolutely nothing…..

#174 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.27.15 at 2:41 pm

#111 Smoking Man on 11.27.15 at 12:25 am

I’ve just closed my eyes again
Climbed aboard the dream weaver train
Driver take away my worries of today……………..
____________________________________________
Is that the best you can come up with Smoking Man, very disappointing. Jeesh Gary Wright. Take two Tylenol and you will feel better in the morning!

#175 IHCTD9 on 11.27.15 at 2:57 pm

#170 Ralph Cramdown on 11.27.15 at 2:21 pm
#161 IHCTD9 — “I’d love to agree with you, but I live in Ontario. We had disaster upon disaster piled on top of one another under McGuinty, so what did the Ontario voters do? Gave Wynne a majority.”

And the alternatives were? In the left corner, we had Andrea Horwath. In the previous legislature, owing to the Liberal minority and the PC refusal to support any government bills, the NDP were driving the bus, able to demand all kinds of not-totally-unreasonable legislation. The only way the NDP could have increased its power was to form a government, and THAT wasn’t going to happen, so their optimal strategy was to continue supporting the Liberals. Instead, they voted down the government. Who’d vote for those idiots?

In the right corner, Tim Hudak promised he’d fire 100,000 civil servants. “Elect me, and I’ll increase unemployment by 1.4%” turned out to be a losing strategy.

Instead of blaming the voters, opposition supporters need to focus on finding broadly electable leaders. Personally, I HATE situations where my governments don’t face an effective opposition, regardless of who’s sitting where. And I’m not planning on paying a lot of (or maybe any) Ontario tax in my dotage, either.
____________________________________________

Hudak was the alternative, and he would not have fired 100K public servants (obviously) – that is just what all the Unions wanted us to believe, and many did – at least back then.

Now we have Wynne who is super worried about sex ed, wants to bring in 20 thousand unemployable immigrants, and fight Climate Change on the Provincial Credit Card.

She pays Unions millions for “negotiating costs”, gets mad at USSC when Stelco files for protection from their creditors, wants to hit businesses and citizens with carbon taxes and increased pension payments.

She is selling off Hydro One which is an absolutely horrific decision. She wants to extend land transfer taxes to the whole of the Province. She eliminated independent oversight of Hydro One, and passed legislation to screen HO workers from the sunshine list. She is a total MFing disaster to anyone working in the private sector.

Wynne and Trudeau want to shine brightly through ideological policies. They want folks in other countries to give them a high five. The fact that the entire economy of Canada is swirling the bowl does not even seem to register as a concern.

Trudeau just announced 2.65 Billion to help OTHER countries with Climate change FFS…

For me, it’s time to do something that will have an effect on my situation. Voting has not helped for the last 13 years.

#176 Leo Trollstoy on 11.27.15 at 3:05 pm

Sadly, when it comes I expect to hear profoundly stupid millennials weeping “but I had granite counter tops and stainless appliances until the Liberals got in.”

That is what will come when the housing market “corrects”.

Bingo.

Ditto for the NDP in Alberta.

#177 paul on 11.27.15 at 3:17 pm

#151 Keith in Calgary on 11.27.15 at 11:34 am

What carbon tax ? LOL !!

If Notley raises gas prices 6 cents a litre because of taxes, my SMART car will cost a whole $1.74 extra to fill up once every 3 weeks.

The poor SOB driving the 4X4 crew cab one ton dually needing to pump 138 litres of the good stuff into his rig every week, will pay an extra $33.12 every month assuming he fills up once a week.

OOoohhhh the pain……….
———————————————————-
The pain maybe yours if you make a left turn in front of him.
Smart Car lol

#178 Retired WI Boomer on 11.27.15 at 3:22 pm

Took another look at the statistics in the poll cited in this blog installment.

These are people earning $50,000 ANNUM or MORE….

40% struggle to keep $1,000 in SAVINGS

Almost 40% had to take “extraordinary measures” to pay the regular bills

1 in 6 (almost 20%) HAD to cash in RRSP or visit a PAY DAY loan shark to make ends meet

That smells WAY too BAD for a healthy country. Either the people do NOT know how to budget properly, don’t give a rat’s ass about it, and think ‘crisis living’ is normal, OR the economy is too out of control?

Yet, these are not recent graduates with a minimum wage income but people earning 50 GRAND a YEAR or MORE!!!

Garth- Do you accept the findings here as ‘credible’??
it does appear to be a legitimate enterprise, yet the findings are almost…. as we are fond of saying FUBAR.

Scary…

#179 CRA Poodle on 11.27.15 at 3:24 pm

#125 Gordons Gin on 11.27.15 at 2:44 am

Foreign income? Congratulations. You’re reporting it on your tax return, right?

#180 S.Bby on 11.27.15 at 3:25 pm

#173 Oxi in Greece

A billion here, a billion there, what does it matter if it makes us feel good? We have the cash because our houses keep increasing in value. We can all move to Squamish and drive Priuses. I hear the commute to Van just got shorter by 10 minutes. A mutual round of high-fives is in order.

#181 Daisy Mae on 11.27.15 at 3:30 pm

#128: “Why will the govt not reintroduce 40-year mortgagages and other measures like it? They have done it before, in 2009-2010. This time the economic fallout would be even greater if they don’t act. What is your rationale, Garth!”

************************

Because it didn’t work then. And it won’t work now. It is one of the chief reasons we’re where we are today. Why do you suppose we’re back to the traditional 25-year amortization?

#182 S.Bby on 11.27.15 at 3:33 pm

Is this the mentality of Canadians we are dealing with now? This worked for my house, so why not for Canadian Tire money?

“I redeemed $25 — I was supposed to get 50 times that amount. To me, that was $1,250,” Siebner said.

One of Canada’s most prominent marketing experts looked at the advertisement and agreed.

“It doesn’t make sense, it’s not reasonable to assume you’d get $1250, but that’s what it seemed she’d be getting,” said June Cotte, associate professor at the Richard Ivey School of Business at Western University in London, Ontario.

http://globalnews.ca/news/2364817/canadian-tire-promo-turns-out-to-be-a-bust-for-consumer/?utm_source=Homegnca-calgary&utm_medium=MostPopular&utm_campaign=2014

#183 Bram on 11.27.15 at 3:36 pm

#116 Ticky Shooters on 11.27.15 at 1:11 am
“Vancouver considers 2.3 per cent property tax hike for 2016”

So, I am very confused about this news.
First off, property tax is a percentage of your real estate value.
So if they increase, the increase with PERCENTAGE POINTS, not percentages.

If they really increase ‘points’, then they can never claim “it is in line with inflation.”

Because the owner gets a DOUBLE hit: first the house price is up (by more than inflation), and then a HIGHER percentage of this inflated price is charged to the owner?

Please tell me this is not true.

Bram

#184 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.27.15 at 3:57 pm

Oh boy Canada is in for a rude awakening! Thanks JT.

http://www.therebel.media/undercover_for_a_year_reporter_unveils_the_truth_about_female_isis_supporters_in_england

#185 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.27.15 at 3:59 pm

172 IHCTD9 on 11.27.15 at 2:34 pm

#164 (2’D)’D2′ Big Boy on 11.27.15 at 1:29 pm
#148 IHCTD9

HUH?

The Soviet Union was largely built by slave labour, sir. Have you ever heard of the gulag? It was also built on lies – small wonder it eventually collapsed.

Such ignorance.
____________________________________________

I’ll assume you were replying to Ralph not me. I agree the Soviet Government – for a short while, built a strong military on the backs of [what was left of] it’s people. Just the kind of thing that happens when government and industry get together.
_________________________________________
Da! (Да)

#186 Ralph Cramdown on 11.27.15 at 4:01 pm

#175 IHCTD9 — “Hudak was the alternative, and he would not have fired 100K public servants (obviously) – that is just what all the Unions wanted us to believe, and many did – at least back then.”

I don’t know if you’re new to this whole “internet remembers” thing or what, but if I bang hudak 100,000 into google, I get first page results from thestar.com, theglobeandmail.com, cbc.ca, nationalpost.com, ctvnews.ca, torontosun.com, policyalteratives.ca, huffingtonpost.ca, and behindthenumbers.ca.

If you’re saying he was blatantly lying…

#187 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.27.15 at 4:02 pm

Karma, part deux:
_________________________________________
She’s a good girl, loves her mama
Loves Jesus and America too
She’s a good girl, crazy ’bout Elvis
Loves horses and her boyfriend too

It’s a long day livin’ in Reseda
There’s a freeway runnin’ through the yard
And I’m a bad boy, ’cause I don’t even miss her
I’m a bad boy for breakin’ her heart

And I’m free, I’m free fallin’

All the vampires walkin’ through the valley
Move west down Ventura Blvd.
And all the bad boys are standing in the shadows
All the good girls are home with broken hearts

I wanna glide down over Mulholland
I wanna write her name in the sky
I wanna free fall out into nothin’
Gonna leave this world for awhile

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lWJXDG2i0A

#188 Rexx Rock on 11.27.15 at 4:07 pm

The bankers are already letting Canadians in Alberta pay interest rate only on their mortgages to help out because of the recession.The average income in Vancouver and Toronto are well over $100,000.$76,000 for a family income is not a option in these 2 cities.Only 2 cities with a booming economy for now.God willing,oil will be back over $75 a barrel next year.
Its awesome when the world is falling apart and the fed keeps pumping up the market like everything is peaches and cream.God bless grand ma Yellen.

#189 (2’D)’D2′ Big Boy on 11.27.15 at 4:09 pm

#172 IHCTD9

You’re right, of course. My apologies.

I, too, live in Ontario, right in the centre of the Big Lemon. The election last year was a farce, a sick joke. For the past several Ontario elections I’ve voted Libertarian; certainly last year’s vote was a choice between three terrible candidates. In other words, no choice at all. I wasn’t really surprised to see Kathleen Wynne come out on top.

It appears the world is just getting more stupid as the days go by. It wasn’t supposed to be like this, was it?

#190 Chris in Nanaimo on 11.27.15 at 4:20 pm

Are resturants and pubs the Canary in the mine?

In the last 2-3 months we’ve had 2 established resturants go bust, and now this week a popular local pub closed.

I see new resturants go bust all the time, very hard to get established, but when you see long time places shutter up….not good…

#191 Doug in London on 11.27.15 at 4:27 pm

Wow, there have been a lot of negative comments in the last week or so about the small steps our federal and provincial governments are proposing to make in order to deal with the issue of climate change. Well, whether you like it or not you should have seen it coming long ago. I’m an idiot who failed a college financial course in 1985 and even I could see it coming. I remember reading some prospectus about a Luskar Coal Fund back in 1998. No, that’s not a typo error, it actually was 17 years ago in one thousand nine hundred and ninety eight by the Gregorian Calendar. It was also the year after we heard about some 1997 Kyoto agreement, which wasn’t even honoured. I thought, why would any sane person buy into coal? With the push to reduce carbon emissions, coal demand and prices should drop off a cliff. In fact it was a bad call, because coal demand and prices went up and I could have made some serious money with this investment. My timing was way off, but coal prices have recently dropped again and there’s no assurance of a recovery to the prices of the last decade. I was way ahead of my time, seeing the writing on the wall back in 1998 and you should have been too.

Fast forward to more recent times, when in Ontario coal fueled plants were shut down, and in the United States older coal fueled plants (like the one in Marysville, Michigan) are being torn down and newer ones are being converted to run on gas. Also take note of some places, like British Columbia bringing in a carbon tax. Was anyone actually paying attention when these events occurred? There’s no assurance humankind will cut carbon emissions fast enough to avoid serious disaster, but at long last Canada is catching up with the rest of the world on addressing this serious matter. All of you out there should have seen it coming and made preparations like buying a smaller, more fuel efficient car, insulating your house to make it more energy efficient, and buying investments that will thrive in this coming environment just to mention a few. Has anyone noticed the stock price of low carbon electricity producers like NPI, AQN, and CSE has gone up recently? I think anything to do with nuclear power, like uranium producer CCO, could stand to gain in years to come. Avoid insurance companies, they’ll be paying out more in claims due to damage from freak weather events. In summary, get with the program and pay attention to what’s going on out there in the world around you.

#192 bdy sktrn on 11.27.15 at 4:30 pm

Please tell me this is not true.

Bram
—————
it’s not true.

old tax 100.00 new tax 102.30 – easy eh?

property values don’t affect it.

my prop is worth 5x when i bought
taxed have maybe doubled over that time

#193 Not tonight honey on 11.27.15 at 4:30 pm

Sorry if this was already linked (I don’t read every post-gasp).
TD spells it all out in the last paragraph for the non-believers.
Btw, our property tax (calgary centre, not priddis) dropped by18% for2016. *before you disown me Mr. Turner for home ownership please note I bought this very modest home in my early 30’s during the Bridget Jones era of my life). Now, at exactly 45 yrs, I know better ;-).
It’s too bad that now I’m utterly useless and unappealing to humanity for shamelessly daring to continue living. Excuse me while I go plop myself on the nearest ice floe and do us all a favor, right guys?! Shouldn’t be too challenging to find one given the climate change and all.
Or wait, perhaps I could stay just a teensy bit longer and continue my worklife of saving.lives.every.day-all day.
Would that be alright with ye not-so-gentle men?

News flash, we 40ish ladies don’t find you appealing either, I have more important things/people to do with my 43seconds than managing your blood flow (or lack thereof).
You should be so lucky!

http://calgaryherald.com/business/real-estate/higher-interest-rates-expected-to-deepen-calgary-housing-market-correction.

Peace be with you!
NTH

#194 subscriber on 11.27.15 at 4:33 pm

#133 bey sktrn – at some point you yourself may start believing the BS you post here, just keep at it long enough. Today the STS ‘twisty as heck’ just took a cake. You want to see twisty road – check out Hwy 36 or 299 in N. Cali. Btw Squamish has been dead since the mill closed down. High hopes before olympics but that was short-lived. Developers that advertised all the DT SQ development met so much red tape and low demand that they walked away leaving what is now pretty much a ghost DT. RE in SQ has been crap, anything west of Hwy 99 – flood plain, to the east – Valley Cliffe that barely gets any sun even in the summer, not to mention constant noise of dirt bikes & ATVs going by. The only other place, Garibaldi Highlands – old houses on small lots or few new houses around the university, some of them sitting on the mrkt for years. Even a golf course closed down. SQ is a good starbucks stop on the way to ski Whistler.

#183 Bram – yep double whammy on the taxes, but hey those affected can afford – they’re all millionaires ;)

#195 MF on 11.27.15 at 4:44 pm

#184 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol

Scary. Read any message board and the opposition to this stupid election ploy is obvious. It’s even funny watching JT and co dilly dally as they try to make the whole square peg somehow fit fit into a circle hole. This government is complete garbage.

IHCTD9 on 11.27.15 at 2:57 pm

Gotta give this one to IH Ralph. Absolutely no one would have preferred to live in the USSR.

MF

#196 Jim B on 11.27.15 at 4:50 pm

Garth, do you agree with G&M pundit Ben Rabidoux (among others) that CMHC should reinstate the regional mortgage cap, which was in place until 2003? Or would that only (at least in 416 and YVR) make things worse, RE-wise?

#197 Nagraj on 11.27.15 at 4:54 pm

GARDENING WITH GARTH

Reading too quickly I misread PICASSO’s “I’m just a peon in a pot of applicants” as: I’m just a peony in a pot of applicants. So I had to take a laugh break.
[This is not to disparage PICASSO who is in some trouble.]
(Applicants may be some form of aloe.)

Which reminds me of the guy who wrote “peonies and rainbows”. (Also pretty, no doubt.) (But the ponies are angry.)

[“Peon” is actually Mexican. “Robot” has a fascinating political history re forced labour in Europe. “Serf”, “peasant” and all like terms denote – overworked and exploited and expendable.]

#149 CHRIS NEMELKA ADVANCED HUMAN totally cracked me up.
[Firstly because Nelke is Deutsch for carnation, and so Chris morphed into chrysanthemum and I thought what’s with everybody turning into a flower? Which made me think of Garth as a pointsettia. (Which is also Mexican.)]
CHRIS’ hysterical description of medical care in Port Alberni is worth a short novel. Then there was “because 3) water is very deep” – I hope CHRIS becomes a perennial hybrid on this blog.

GT couldn’t resist pushing his little “Karma is a bitch” joke. Haw haw. Actually GT is a Vaishya big on Artha, kinda hard on Shudras, and heading towards Vanaprastha. (Not to mention that he’s taken with Kama, that’s Karma without the r, kinda like concupiscence.)

Who said “I am not a potted plant!”?

#198 S.Bby on 11.27.15 at 5:04 pm

#194 subscriber

“It’s not a lie if you believe it”.
George Costanza

#199 Nemesis on 11.27.15 at 5:14 pm

“Absolutely no one would have preferred to live in the USSR.” – MF

#LifeWasGoodInTheOldCCCP… #No,Really!…

https://youtu.be/ZMUCnCUbm-U

#200 IHCTD9 on 11.27.15 at 5:39 pm

#186 Ralph Cramdown on 11.27.15 at 4:01 pm
#175 IHCTD9 — “Hudak was the alternative, and he would not have fired 100K public servants (obviously) – that is just what all the Unions wanted us to believe, and many did – at least back then.”

I don’t know if you’re new to this whole “internet remembers” thing or what, but if I bang hudak 100,000 into google, I get first page results from thestar.com, theglobeandmail.com, cbc.ca, nationalpost.com, ctvnews.ca, torontosun.com, policyalteratives.ca, huffingtonpost.ca, and behindthenumbers.ca.

If you’re saying he was blatantly lying…
____________________________________________

I’ve been on the net since before Google was founded, so not new to it. But I also have my own memory to draw from. Hudak was going to eliminate jobs through quite a few different means. Early retirement incentives, not filling vacancies, transferring public entities into private ones (workers could keep their positions) etc…

Personally I believe he would not have made it to 100K, certainly not if he got a minority. He was shooting to get government size (and cost) back to 2009 levels, but Wynne and Co. made it sound like he wanted to get back to 1940 levels.

Ontario bought into Union and Liberal fear tactics, “vote Hudak and your paystub will turn into a pink slip” etc..

Don’t get me wrong, very little of what Wynne (and T2) will do can have much if any detrimental effect on me personally. Sure I’ll be paying more for basically everything, but I (and most on this blog) have already overcome most of life’s financial mountains, or are well on the way.

It is the young that will pay (and pay, and pay…) over the next several decades to come for what Wynne is doing right now. Ontario is the most indebted sub-sovereign borrower in the entire world, it looks like it’s going to have to be the bond market that shuts us down. But even that will not happen as long as we stay content with ever increasing taxes and fees to service the ballooning debt interest.

#201 Ex-Cowtown on 11.27.15 at 5:44 pm

From “No Tricks Zone”:

Germany’s Die Zeit: “(Germany) Is Fouling Up Energiewende”…”CO2 Emissions Reduction Targets Won’t Be Reached”…”Embarrassing”!
By P Gosselin on 27. November 2015

Fritz Vorholt at Germany’s center-left national weekly Die Zeit here reports in a commentary that the country is “fouling up its Energiewende” (shift to renewable energies) and writes that experts say the country will not reach its stated CO2 emissions reductions target. He calls this situation “embarrassing”.

Don’t look too closely

Lately there have been a number of reports stating that Germany’s Energiewende has become more window dressing and grandstanding than substance. Vorholt brings up an important point, warning that if Germany fails at its man-on-the-moon project Energiewende, the country even risks taking the wind out of the sails of the global green energy movement. After all if technology savvy Germany cannot do it, then other countries won’t bother trying. So far it does not look good. Germany’s electricity rates have skyrocketed, CO2 emissions however have remained stubbornly high and Germany’s power grid is now far more unstable and at risk of blackouts. Who wants to copy that?

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Who wants to copy Germany’s complete failure?

1. Barack Obama
2. Hillary Clinton
3. Justin Trudeau
4. Rachel Notley
5. Elizabeth May
6. Stephane Dion
7. Bernie Sanders
8. Al Gore
9. KommyKim

and a cast of 20,000 other card carrying members of the Green Blob about to descend on Paris.

– See more at: http://notrickszone.com/#sthash.NErzfnQa.P03z13uv.dpuf

#202 Ralph Cramdown on 11.27.15 at 5:51 pm

#195 MF — “Gotta give this one to IH Ralph. Absolutely no one would have preferred to live in the USSR.”

I never claimed otherwise, only that the USSR government accomplished some stuff. It’s bizarre that I’d even have to defend this fact in an age when we’ve got an international space station, and the only way of getting people there or back is with the old Soviet rockets.

#203 Patrick on 11.27.15 at 6:05 pm

#117 Washed Up Lawyer on 11.27.15 at 1:11 am

If Notley uses her green credibility to win over the left and get a pipeline built I’ll be impressed. Especially after all the resistance the cons have gotten. Seems far-fetched right now.

I hope she isn’t trying for energy east though, seems like she is. I don’t know the details of each pipeline but it seems counterintuitive to go east with the TPP becoming a reality soon.

#204 Doug in London on 11.27.15 at 6:40 pm

@Ex-Cowtown, post #201:
Give the Germans some credit for trying to run a large part of their power grid with renewable energy, but they’ve made one big mistake, namely getting rid of nuclear power. The nukes excel at providing base load power around the clock, humming along producing power just fine at night and when there is no wind. Their only carbon emissions are the ones associated with producing and transporting uranium and nuclear waste. Instead of keeping the nukes, they’ve made up the difference with coal fueled power plants. It’s been 3 steps forward, and 2 steps backwards.

#205 Rook on 11.27.15 at 7:04 pm

#17-(victoria real estate update)

I’m in need of solid advice from a Victoria perspective.
We currently are being evicted from a house as it is being sold. Not a ton of 3 bedrooms available here to rent unfortunately.
Would buying a modest townhouse at this time be absurd given your housing predictions? Is buying now with locking an interest rate in for 5 years foolish? If interest rates are at 5% in 5 years, that could be a lot of money saved in taking advantage of low interest rates if one can afford 5% in 5 years. Are we looking at a major price correction in Victoria? If so, when?

#206 K on 11.28.15 at 1:11 am

Thanks Garth. I think the only thing I have to be concerned about is taxes. Death and taxes, I guess there is never anything new.

#207 Patrick on 11.28.15 at 12:12 pm

#204 Doug in London on 11.27.15 at 6:40 pm
@Ex-Cowtown, post #201:
Give the Germans some credit for trying to run a large part of their power grid with renewable energy, but they’ve made one big mistake, namely getting rid of nuclear power. The nukes excel at providing base load power around the clock, humming along producing power… they’ve made up the difference with coal fueled power plants.
_____________________________________

I have a hard time accepting that Germany got out of nuclear for climate change or safety issues. They also happen to have the 6th largest coal reserves in the world, mostly lignite. Siemens, a german multinational, also decided to get out of nuclear at the same time. I can’t imagine a massive multinational like that getting out if there was money to be made.

I wonder if Siemens and the german government got together and decided Siemens wasn’t competitive enough in nuclear. Switch to new technologies like carbon capture and renewables where they think they can compete better. I think the Germans saw an opportunity with Fukushima to execute an agenda without too much resistance.

Not sure where the German reactors were at in their lifecycle but if they were coming up to be replaced and Siemens wanted to move out of nuclear it was a pretty easy move. What better way to appease the climate movement than to tell them you are moving away from nuclear to renewables while building coal plants.

#208 MS on 11.28.15 at 12:52 pm

This blog should be published into 10 books!
It’s one of the besr finance literatures and i’ve read quite a few… Words aside… Absolutely love it!

#209 Warren - the lagging indicator on 11.28.15 at 7:50 pm

If reasonable people concur with the general assessment from Margaret Wente http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/whats-the-matter-with-belgium/article27508948/
Would it not also be reasonable to assume that if refugees were being imported from Belgium for example, people calling for a high standard for the vetting process or worried about trusting the government with such, would be prudent and not racist?