The odds

1karma

A month ago the odds of a US interest rate hike were 27%. On Wednesday they were 74%. By this time two weeks hence, you can probably make ‘em 100%. On December 16th, barring a global military conflict or Janet Yellin being abducted by Nectonites, we’ll be launched into a  new era.

So pity the poor Millennials, average age 26. These moist creatures have grown up on house porn, come into real estate puberty and been infused with their MLS value system during the period when mortgages were the cheapest ever. The last time a rate hike occurred was when they were bumpy teens listening to 50 Cent and Snoop Dogg (my fav).

In fact a whole generation of people, now bigger than the awesome Boomers (33% of the population vs 31%) have never actually known what it feels like when the cost of money goes up, instead of down. Moreover, they don’t believe it’s possible. Ever. After all, how could a poor 22-year-old then qualify to buy a $500,000 condo? It’s the end of life as we know it. #sucks.

As this pathetic blog has tried to make clear, rates will rise and they won’t stop for a while. The increases will be steady, slow and methodical. The Fed will go maybe five or seven times before it pauses, with the ultimate goal of adding about 2% to the cost of borrowing over the next twenty or thirty months.

That doesn’t sound like a lot – until you realize it could double mortgages. As also warned, this is not a US-only thing. Bond markets are joined at the hip, so yield increases there mean the same here, and the Bank of Canada has a 93% record of following the Fed. So, yeah, gonna happen. Tell your daughter.

We already have evidence. Quietly, lenders are getting their ducks in a row with five-year fixed loan rates now ahead about a quarter of a point, in advance of next month’s event, and following the pop in bond yields. It’s hard to over-emphasize the sea change at hand. Lending costs cratered twice this year as the Bank of Canada cut its trend-setting rate twice, in January and again in July. For a time you could score a 1.89% mortgage – ridiculous when inflation was running at 2%. And all of this helped goose the housing market in the Bubble Cities, while throwing gas on the fires of human house lust.

So what can we now reasonably expect?

Sit down. Hug your dog. Have a scotch. The TD Bank (they grant mortgages, remember?) thinks fixed-rate home loans will increase by up to three-quarters of a percentage point over the months to come. So, goodbye to the twos and hello to the threes. This first-stage move will dampen sales by between 10% and 15%, says the bank, and the impact will be most pronounced in (a) YVR and (b) 416.

Exactly. The two cities where the locals think they’re immune, because everybody on the planet wants to move there. Fact is, markets that go vertical (just like tech stocks, or Psy) are the ones that inevitably blow up first. Buyers over-extend themselves snapping up slanty Leslieville semis, soulless condos or beater houses on the wrong (east) side of town, and are then most affected by rate hikes and jitters. All it takes for things to descend is the meme to spread that real estate means risk.

In case you failed to notice, there’s also been an uptick in variable-rate mortgages – even though the Bank of Canada has not hiked rates (and economic David Madani thinks another cut is coming in 2016). This results from lenders having to goose deposit returns to attract silly folks who want GICs, and also in anticipation of the beginning of the end of cheap money.

Of course, people being as delusional as they are, when the reality of higher mortgages spreads there’ll be a rush to buy and ‘beat the increase.’ Such a fitting end: fools panicking to pay top dollar for inflated assets with an increased debt load instead of waiting and going in lower with less debt – all to save half a point for a maximum of 60 months. Sigh.

But, the kids aren’t buying it. Cheap, available money is an entitlement to them, just like iPhones or work/life balance (that’s so cute). They truly believe “the government won’t allow” rates to rise, as if Justin had something to do with it. Debt-pickled homeowners have swallowed massive risk which can only be contained if mortgages stay cheap and houses keep on appreciating. Neither will happen.

Well, in three weeks we’ll know. But I wouldn’t bet against the inevitable. Look where it got Stephen Harper.

250 comments ↓

#1 TurnerNation on 11.25.15 at 6:22 pm

“You can call me on my cell phone…”

#2 Frank R on 11.25.15 at 6:23 pm

“In Bilcon, the investors successfully claimed that Canada had violated the national treatment obligation because the government had denied an environmental permit for a controversial mining project while other projects were allowed to proceed. The fact that those other projects were in different locations, environments and communities was not persuasive to the tribunal.”

TPP would let foreign investors bypass the Canadian public interest

http://www.theglobeandmail.com//report-on-business/rob-commentary/tpp-would-let-foreign-investors-bypass-the-canadian-public-interest/article27463985/?cmpid=rss1&click=sf_globe

#3 Forzudo on 11.25.15 at 6:25 pm

Dewar White Label Scotch.
Cuban cigar.
Fireplace.

#4 bdy sktrn on 11.25.15 at 6:26 pm

money will remain cheap for a while yet. just a sliver less cheap, but still cheap.

#5 bdy sktrn on 11.25.15 at 6:29 pm

on the wrong (east) side of town…
—————————-
is that a diss? it’s the cool side of town.

#6 Panhead on 11.25.15 at 6:34 pm

I figure these moist kid’s don’t really care when the shite hit’s the fan. They are just gonna walk anyway. It’s the new reality …

#7 Michael King on 11.25.15 at 6:35 pm

Writing from Vancouver. The market here may already be softening, at least at the “high end”. The Globe has recently published two items regarding very nice homes in West Vancouver. Both sold for under (!) the asking price. One was on the market for three months and the other for six (deserves another !). A year ago this was unimaginable.
We live in Kitsilano where this summer small coach houses built beside alleys were priced at one million or more. This had to be the peak of the market and I feel sorry for the people I know who bought one.

#8 mitzerboy aka queencity kid on 11.25.15 at 6:36 pm

snoop dogg aka snoop lion

oh what a joy to hear the utterance of a rasta…..
once in a while
money can wait sometimes

#9 MF on 11.25.15 at 6:37 pm

Great post Garth.

I would add it’s not just we millennials who think rates will never rise. I constantly read on here from some older commentators that rates “can’t” increase as well.

Lots of delusional people of all ages out there.

I guess we should get ready to pile into everyone’s favourite etf: CPD.

MF

#10 Alberta wing-nuts on 11.25.15 at 6:37 pm

Europe cut rates too in 2012 thinking that this was the medicine required to stimulate growth… Within months they back-tracked but not before realizing the huge damage they caused because of the interest rate hike…. Should Yellin an co raise rates she too will witness the damage of moving too early…. The world of economics has changed and there are no more normalized rates….

#11 Victoria Real Estate Update on 11.25.15 at 6:42 pm

This chart plots the price performance of single family homes in Victoria against SFHs in Vancouver.

. . . . . . . . . . . .House Prices. . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . Percent Above/Below May 2010 Price Level. . .
. . . . . .x = Vancouver, * = Victoria (City). . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+10% . . . . . . . . x. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . x. . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
+ 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
….0%. . . x*. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . .* . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-10%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .*. . . .
—————————————————————————–
. . . . . . .May. . . .May . . . . . . . . . . .December
. . . . . . 2010. . . 2011. . . . . . . . . . . . .2013. .

(sources: Victoria’s R/E board, Vancouver’s R/E board)

For those of you who say they can’t understand my charts (are you realtors?), here’s a short tutorial:

Simply follow the x trail from left to right for Vancouver and follow the * trail from left to right for Victoria.

Vancouver prices increased 10% while prices in Victoria fell 11% from
May 2010 to December 2013.

From May 2010 to December 2013 Canadian 5-year fixed mortgage rates fell significantly.

Falling interest rates create a highly stimulative environment for a housing market.

Almost any housing market in the world would show strong price gains in an environment of falling rates. Only an unhealthy housing market that is extremely weak would show a price loss as rates fall (Victoria).

Some regulars on this site want you to think that house prices in Victoria won’t fall as rates rise. They are wrong. They obviously don’t understand one of the primary and time-proven basic concepts of real estate anywhere in the world – that house prices fall as rates rise.

Nobody would argue that realtors didn’t tell potential buyers in 2010 that house prices in Victoria would continue to rise. The above chart proves that realtors who made promises of price gains in Victoria in 2010 were wrong.

Indeed house prices across all areas of Greater Victoria began to fall in 2010.

Plenty of credibility was lost by those who made these empty promises. Have they owned up to their mistakes (like a professional should)? Have they acknowledged that their (wrong) advice was based on nothing and that it led some buyers into bad buying decisions?

Plenty of those Victoria families who bought in 2010, based on this advice, are now in positions of negative equity and their financial situations will worsen over time as house prices fall.

Those realtors who were wrong about Victoria real estate in 2010 will be wrong again. This is certain now that Canadian 5-year fixed mortgage rates have basically already begun moving higher and will be north of 5% within 2 to 3 years.

#12 Stan on 11.25.15 at 6:43 pm

I will bet you a silver ounce they dont raise rates!

#13 mark on 11.25.15 at 6:46 pm

Where will you be hanging that nude painting of Harper, Garth?

#14 Smoking Man on 11.25.15 at 6:48 pm

Happy Thanksgiving America.

#15 Leo Trollstoy on 11.25.15 at 6:53 pm

All the supporters of the NDP in Alberta are apologetic. “Waaaah we don’t control the price of oil. Waaah we inherited this mess from the PC. Waaaah”

History won’t care.

Alberta is going down the drain and the NDP are in power. That’s all that history will remember.

#16 S.Bby on 11.25.15 at 6:54 pm

If Dec 16 is a go, then the fuse will be lit on YVR real estate. It remains to be seen how fast the fuse burns down. Then… BOOM!

#17 MF on 11.25.15 at 6:54 pm

#163 Millennial Realist on 11.25.15 at 8:53 am

Wow.

Probably voted liberal because of he/she wanted legalized marijuana. The night of the election I can’t tell you how many on my facebook were cheering when Justina got elected for that reason alone.

Our generation is by far the dumbest ever.

#167 IHCTD9 on 11.24.15 at 11:33 am

Bang on. Tons of dangers with regard to marriage for men here.

“If she’s 41, she’s going to have to settle for less than her ex, 41 year old women with kids don’t “marry up”, that’s just the way it goes. Men in her age group are in full control of their gear at that point, so what vestiges of sex-appeal she may still retain at 41 will no longer be the powerful ordinance it once was.”

-Yup. You can actually feel the desperation coming from some women at that age. They will do it all, the shoes/the makeup/the hair/clothes to try and retain that power. Meanwhile, guys in control around 40-45 are looking at ten years younger minimum. Nature’s way of getting even I suppose.

MF

#18 Doug t on 11.25.15 at 6:54 pm

It’s not fun when you find yourself in a financial crunch that can cripple you for years – having been there and recovered I know what they are going to go through – prepare for the worst and hope for the best

#19 Frank on 11.25.15 at 6:54 pm

People are irrational fools so along with a rush before rates go up, is it fair to expect something similar after they do?

When rates go up and people assume they never stop they won’t buy so house prices drop (inverse relationship between interest rates and house prices), which causes even more panic as no one buys because it’ll be cheaper tomorrow. So there’s probably a panic spike down because the rational price is established, no? Is that a buying opportunity? In a rising rate environment is there a time to be buying real estate?

#20 Broke Dick on 11.25.15 at 6:58 pm

The Fed will go maybe five or seven times before it pauses, with the ultimate goal of adding about 2% to the cost of borrowing over the next twenty or thirty months.

That doesn’t sound like a lot – until you realize it could double mortgages.
============================
Almost double mortgages or almost double mortgage rates. Big Difference.

#21 lala on 11.25.15 at 6:58 pm

I’m seated, can I hug my cat and drink konjak instead of dog/scotch.

#22 DJ on 11.25.15 at 7:01 pm

Look forward to more “what to do” information. You’ve convinced at least one family breadwinner.

#23 Arcs55 on 11.25.15 at 7:01 pm

Ouch, mix together layoffs in Alberta and now higher interest rates, it’s not going to be a fun time in this province for a long time. Good thing we’re going green though. That should solve everything.

#24 MSM-Free Zone on 11.25.15 at 7:05 pm

“….Well, in three weeks we’ll know. But I wouldn’t bet against the inevitable. Look where it got Stephen Harper…….”
_________________________

Millennials. Just not ready (to face the truth, either).

#25 Bob on 11.25.15 at 7:05 pm

Tweedle-dum and Tweedle-dee…

#26 ARP on 11.25.15 at 7:07 pm

1/4 point — ~$5K carrying costs. Wasn’t that the equation from before? Either way, as has been said it’ll be the top line staying put (or dropping) while the bottom line costs creep up that will put the squeeze on homeowners.

#27 gumboot princess on 11.25.15 at 7:08 pm

Geez. December 16th is my birthday and I turn 60. I feel like the poster girl for a new age. I’ve applied to start my CPP, too. I think that Garth suggested starting it at 60 – no exceptions – so here goes.

#28 Retired WI Boomer on 11.25.15 at 7:09 pm

“Look Where It Got Stephan Harper.” … Hmmm… A chance to blame the next Dunce for the errors of his ways
plus, probably a decent retirement package. A chance to scour the past few years, weighing performance, and formulate a NEW battle plan for his party-if not for himself. A fair trade-off in my opinion.

Be that as it may, right NOW the odds do favor a .25% Fed rate hike in December. That said, a lot of news is yet to be written between today, and December 16th.

It is NOT a foregone conclusion! I know one that IS a Guarantee…. If you take out a 20, or 30 year mortgage, you WILL be paying more at your next renewal. That’s a GUARANTEE on a 3 or 5 year renewal. What’s your bet??

Sliding into that Turkey Day over-eating, and triptifan induced coma-sleep beginning tomorrow afternoon.
Football tomorrow evening Bears vs. Green Bay
Wish us Packer fans luck, we are going to need it!!

#29 Future Disgraced Senator (still waiting to hear) on 11.25.15 at 7:11 pm

“After all, how could a poor 22-year-old then qualify to buy a $500,000 condo? It’s the end of life as we know it. #sucks.”

In support just let me say, What’s the frequency Kenneth? Is your Benzedrine uhuh.

#30 Broke Dick on 11.25.15 at 7:14 pm

Bond markets are joined at the hip, so yield increases there mean the same here, and the Bank of Canada has a 93% record of following the Fed. So, yeah, gonna happen.
===============================
So this is good news for Canada no?
Why would rates go up if the economy was going south, so to speak?
Rates going up = better economic growth = more jobs = money money.

All good then!

#31 tkid on 11.25.15 at 7:18 pm

#12, I wouldn’t mind the going-green trend so much if folks were serious about it, but they keep caterwauling about Canada polluting the environment while they give places like China and India a free pass.

Until they start holding China accountable for their record amounts of pollution, I will keep dismissing this green-Canada frenzy as a just another fad.

#32 MF on 11.25.15 at 7:19 pm

” The last time a rate hike occurred was when they were bumpy teens listening to 50 Cent and Snoop Dogg (my fav).”

Ahhh..those were good times. The only “interest rate” I paid attention to then was from the opposite sex.

Add in driving the souped up Honda and the Von Dutch trucker hat and you have some serious nostalgia right there.

MF

#33 Broke Dick on 11.25.15 at 7:19 pm

#5 bdy sktrn on 11.25.15 at 6:29 pm
on the wrong (east) side of town…
—————————-
is that a diss? it’s the cool side of town.
================================
well the Wong side of town is definitely West Van

#34 Nemesis on 11.25.15 at 7:20 pm

“Russia will do nothing about it.” – RC

#Karma’sA,Or… #IvanDoesn’tGetMad… #HeGets…

https://youtu.be/C2NxwHIDTUA

#BonusHarleyMenKarma…

…”goosing returns…in anticipation of the beginning of the end of chap money.” – HonGT

https://youtu.be/G59JnM4JKNQ

#35 omg the original on 11.25.15 at 7:21 pm

VICTORIA REALIST

I have been posting here as OMG and OMG the Original since 2009. I am an unapologetic housing bear who actually has owned houses and been an interested observer in the 5 North American housing corrections that have happened in my lifetime.

I thought I would provide an UPDATE on the Victoria market as it currently stands.

Victoria started off its rise to bloated, bubbliness in the late 1990s and continued putting on double digit gains until about 2007. A typical Fairfield bungalow during this time went from $300k to $700k. Since then price growth has been muted.

The latest Victoria Real Estates Board FRANKENNUMBERS would indicate Victoria is up overall about 7% October2015 over October2014. Yes I know its the FRANKENUMNEBER, but its all we got, I wish we had a government certified number, but we do not.

Furthermore, the activity I have seen in the two areas that I spend most of my time in, Oak Bay and Fairfield, seem to back this up – anything priced at market is sold with days if not before it hits the market. I have heard of several houses that have gone over asking.

I believe the VREB efforts to pitch the idea of HAM coming to Victoria is responsible for much of this price appreciation. Every single real estate agent I have heard interviewed on the radio cites the “influx” of interest from offshore. Even Michale Campbell on his Vancouver finance radio show is pitching the idea of HAM hitting the island. Sad, but people are easily manipulated.

Overall Victoria remains a grossly, morbidly bloated market where a 3 bedroom bungalow can run over $800k.

It is NOT a BUYERS market. It has not seen any significant SOFTENING of prices.

I wish I could tell you prices are dropping in Victoria but they are not.

Now you can dress it up as saying sales are below 10 year averages.

Or you can show that Victoria has lagged behind Vancouver and Toronto in terms of price appreciation.

Or you can cherry pick certain months/years to compare.

Or you can even try to diminish my point by accusing me of being a real estate agent, which I am clearly not given my views on the market.

But basically all those efforts to distract away from the strength of the Victoria market is like putting lipstick on a pig – no matter how glitzed up it is – it still a pig.

At the end of the day what really matters for people wanting to buy a house in Victoria is what the price is – and unfortunately that price today is higher than it was a year ago.

#36 Jinxy on 11.25.15 at 7:24 pm

I am calling it….

You just jinxed the all but done Fed increase in December.

Can you please just sit quietly and wait silently in the weeks before the fed announcement, and then claim victory in predicting an increase. You have enough predictive posts to say you called it IF they actually increase.

All the past times that you, and the other analysts, were confident of an increase in 2015 we had major global crises – Greece, China, Syria, worse then expected US growth report – killed the much anticipated and talked about increases.

#37 Amazon girl on 11.25.15 at 7:24 pm

Abducted by a Nectonite ?
Here we go Smoking Man save us all…

#38 Freedom First on 11.25.15 at 7:25 pm

I am a Boomer, but it seems like yesterday I was 26. Being on my own since 17, I knew that my decisions at that time in my life would have a great impact on the rest of my life. I watched many of my generation be destroyed by their one asset house lust when the Mortgage rates hit 20% and they lost everything. Boomers I know who did it to themselves, will rarely mention the financial screwing they received. Of course, I bought my first house then, after the owners had totally renovated it, bought 4 new appliances, lived their for a few years, and sold it to me for 45% of what they paid for it. Of course, I was 34 by then and my net worth was more than the house cost. I had to buy it. It was renovated with new appliances and cheaper to live in than my one bedroom apartment. I am a numbers man. My home is where I live. I rent today, and I don’t now, nor ever did, give a $hit whether I own my home or not. With any a$$et I own, I want to profit from it.

Never love an a$$et. It won’t love you back. And, because I love myself, I live alone. Anything else is too high risk for me.

#39 [email protected] on 11.25.15 at 7:27 pm

#163 Millennial Realist on 11.25.15 at 8:53 am
#130 Smoking Man

Suzuki is absolutely right. Climate change denial and promotion of the tar sands threatens us all.

Harper was a lying, cowardly idiot in a closet. Good for Suzuki for calling him out on it.

Smoking man, you are an illiterate ass, a schooled tool of the machine. Such a complete goof.

Albertans have chosen their path, though not all of them. There is still time for some to leave.

But if helping to save the earth for human habitation means that a backwards, inbred province that barely understands democracy (one neocon dictatorship for over forty years) must suffer substantial economic harm, then so be it.

Take solace Albertans. Your suffering, and it will be horrendous, will help the rest of the planet.

Your stupidity? Sorry, that’s all on you.
……………………………………………………..

Seams your entire generation is addicted to the tyranny of Paternalism with no concept of life without it. You don’t understand freedom or logic. You live and die by the group think, consumed with the pathetic adolescent need to fit in.

Little man, why don’t you go to Calgary, go to a union meeting and tell real men to take solace, you’re saving the planet. One moment, having a visual of you getting the shit kicked out of yourself.

We on the verge of world war 3, why, countries that have real men leading them, know how important selling resources is to the betterment of their societies.

Little emasculated turds like you are going pay dearly, when the Cultural Marxists destroy our economy, you think it’s tough for millennials to get a job now, wait till Wynne, Justina and Suzuki are done.
You will be eating out of garbage bins. And your parents won’t bail you out either, cause they will be broke.

————————————————–

Absolutely right Smoking man. Millennial Realist is a prime example of what happens when schools become a place of propaganda. They all know what to think. Very few will ever know how to think.

#40 omg the original on 11.25.15 at 7:28 pm

Quietly, lenders are getting their ducks in a row with five-year fixed loan rates now ahead about a quarter of a point, in advance of next month’s event, and following the pop in bond yields. It’s hard to over-emphasize the sea change at hand.
————————

Once again this indicates that the BOC does not control interest rates.

The BOC is influential and trend setting.

But if the market believes Canadian rates should go up they will go up.

And the market is set by world bond traders assessing a whole bunch of things, and what the BOC or Canadian politicians desire interest rates to be is not on their list.

#41 JW on 11.25.15 at 7:30 pm

I asked my mortgage guy at the bank did rates go up? His answer was yes its a seasonal thing and they are still lower than last year this time lol

#42 MSM-Free Zone on 11.25.15 at 7:32 pm

#15 Leo Trollstoy on 11.25.15 at 6:53 pm
“…..Alberta is going down the drain and the NDP are in power. That’s all that history will remember……”
_________________________

Canada was going down the drain while the CPC was in power. That’s all that history I will remember, as well…..”

#43 FOMO on 11.25.15 at 7:32 pm

“…there’ll be a rush to buy and “beat the increase”.

http://m.ottawasun.com/2015/11/20/fomo-fallout-slaying-the-insatiable-media-monster

#44 Canadian on 11.25.15 at 7:34 pm

#15 Leo Trollstoy on 11.25.15 at 6:53 pm
Maybe, it will take 20 years for that to be the case, but maybe.

#21 lala on 11.25.15 at 6:58 pm
Cognac….

#45 MSM-Free Zone on 11.25.15 at 7:40 pm

#13 mark on 11.25.15 at 6:46 pm
“….Where will you be hanging that nude painting of Harper, Garth…….”
_________________________

How fitting. The Emperor has no clothes.

(Can’t be the real Harper, though, unless the belly has been photo-shopped.)

#46 Smoking Man on 11.25.15 at 7:40 pm

A month ago the odds of a US interest rate hike were 27%. On Wednesday they were 74%. By this time two weeks hence, you can probably make ‘em 100%. On December 16th, barring a global military conflict or Janet Yellin being abducted by Nectonites, we’ll be launched into a new era.
…..

Shes insane if she does, but Nectonites have a huge fx bet that she will, so no immediate plans for an abduction…..

The hope, ww3 gets close, just enough to bump oil by ten bucks, then a spike by the fed…destroying the Canadian dollar.

Then cash out and try and figure out a tree hugger play..

#47 the Jaguar on 11.25.15 at 7:45 pm

I thought the Millennials didn’t value home ownership at super sized prices and were shying away from home ownership, or is that only in the USA? I thought they didn’t buy cars either due to their ‘sharing economy’ mentality and disgust with machines that use fossil fuel. Am I reading the wrong headlines? Wouldn’t it be those born in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s who would know the least about hard times? I don’t mean small bumps in the road that last a year or two, but refer to the long haul out of a serious economic downturn….the slow, slow path back. Some remember the early 1980’s in the Alberta after the last collapse, but many in their 40’s would be clueless. Jobs that don’t come back, foreclosures, repossessions, savings and hope lost…

#48 I am the Babblemaster on 11.25.15 at 7:47 pm

“As this pathetic blog has tried to make clear, rates will rise and they won’t stop for a while. The increases will be steady, slow and methodical.” – Garth

————————————————

You don’t know this. Nobody does. What is clear is that we have a fragile economy and that higher interest rates will hurt it.

#49 lee on 11.25.15 at 7:47 pm

What’s wrong with the East side of Town?

#50 Smoking Man on 11.25.15 at 7:51 pm

#32 MF on 11.25.15 at 7:19 pm
” The last time a rate hike occurred was when they were bumpy teens listening to 50 Cent and Snoop Dogg (my fav).”

Ahhh..those were good times. The only “interest rate” I paid attention to then was from the opposite sex.

Add in driving the souped up Honda and the Von Dutch trucker hat and you have some serious nostalgia right there.

MF
…..

I once played Texas Holden at the Hardrock in Vegas, this black dude was at our table, everyone was making a fuss out of him. And he was playing like an idiot, I took a few thousand of him..as did many others.

Turns out it was 50 cents. This bommer had no idea who he was at the time. Its in the archives somewhere here.

#51 Justin Case on 11.25.15 at 7:51 pm

The Liberals will not allow housing to come down and rip our faltering economy apart. So, next year, when the CAD will be 60 cents to the USD, they will reinstate 40-year mortgages and zero downpayments. What other option do they have? Even though they will realize that undoing the measures that Flaherty undid, the alternative will be worse for them: a real recession this time, on Justin’s watch. Yikes.

#52 Ed on 11.25.15 at 7:52 pm

My first home had a 18.5% mortgage on it…tried to get out from under it and listed the house for$149,000…sold it in 5 months for $79,000.
Moved to Alberta at that point to start over. Good luck to all with $500k condo’s.

#53 Ronaldo on 11.25.15 at 7:53 pm

#7 Michael King –

”We live in Kitsilano where this summer small coach houses built beside alleys were priced at one million or more. This had to be the peak of the market and I feel sorry for the people I know who bought one.”

1 million dollars to live in a back alley with a view of the neighbours garbage cans. That’s really classy.

#54 Nemesis on 11.25.15 at 7:55 pm

#WhatAreTheOdds?… #YouCan’tMakeThisStuffUp,Or… #MadKowKarma?… #It’sBetterInBC… #No,Really!…

[CBC] – Cow shot 24 times by Abbotsford Police: Incident under review

“Police shot and killed the renegade cow shortly after 10 a.m. PT on Sunday, after it was spotted running across some of the busiest roads in the city.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/cow-shot-abbotsford-review-1.3335775

#55 Ronaldo on 11.25.15 at 8:12 pm

#31 tkid on 11.25.15 at 7:18 pm

#12, ”I wouldn’t mind the going-green trend so much if folks were serious about it, but they keep caterwauling about Canada polluting the environment while they give places like China and India a free pass.”

”Until they start holding China accountable for their record amounts of pollution, I will keep dismissing this green-Canada frenzy as a just another fad”

The pollution that Canada creates in comparison to China and other third world countries is a speck in the coal bucket. Canada’s contribution to the carbon thing is just over 1%. The amount of coal consumption in China alone would be a continuous trainload circling the earth 13.5 times or a train stretching 70,000 miles beyond the moon, and that’s annually and rising. We are paying more than our fair share in proportion to what the others are. We are but a tiny part of a very large problem.

#56 Rexx Rock on 11.25.15 at 8:14 pm

Keep drinking the fed rate hike kool aid.Its been over 9 years of no increase with monkey math inflation and fudged 5.1 Unemployment.I’ll believe it when I see it.

#57 Transformer Man on 11.25.15 at 8:23 pm

“Sit down. Hug your dog. Have a scotch.”

Ahhhhahahahahahahahaha!!!

That is funny.

#58 Victor V on 11.25.15 at 8:25 pm

Even Fort McMurray’s real estate agents are leaving the oilsands town in droves

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/realtor-levels-reach-record-levels-nationally-but-for-mcmurray-numbers-falling&pubdate=2015-11-25

#59 Warren - the lagging indicator on 11.25.15 at 8:27 pm

Hey Garth, Just to let you know, I read your blog all the time and I think you have a really good sense of humour coupled with an engaging writing style. I actually laugh aloud sometimes (like yesterday) so either you are really funny guy or I am nuts. I guess both could be true also.

#60 Ex-Cowtown on 11.25.15 at 8:27 pm

#42 MSM-Free Zone on 11.25.15 at 7:32 pm
#15 Leo Trollstoy on 11.25.15 at 6:53 pm
“…..Alberta is going down the drain and the NDP are in power. That’s all that history will remember……”
_________________________

Canada was going down the drain while the CPC was in power. That’s all that history I will remember, as well…..”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Nothing to be particularly proud of in either situation. Harper was an ass, no question about it, but at least he was a pragmatic ass.

T2 and Notley are both ideological asses whose ass-dom knows no bounds. Both of these will find out how over the next several years how utterly sucked in they were by the Climate Change Machine. Canada will be many billions a year poorer because of it, but don’t fear, Al Gore will be the worlds first Trillionaire.

How can you tell? Easy. The temperatures have not risen in 19 years and 9 months. This can be interpreted in two ways:

1. That the Climate Change Machine has been completely out to lunch on their predictions and that they are useless and nothing but Crybullies.

or….

2. The Climate Change Machine will claim that their “policies” are now “winning the day” and “saving the planet” so we should give them even MORE $$$.

Guess which way they’re re-marketing themselves.

yep…. #2…..

Next they’ll want money because they’ll make sure the Sun rises tomorrow. And T2 and Notley will give it to them.

#61 Andrew on 11.25.15 at 8:28 pm

Garth I think you massively overestimate how much attention Millennials pay to interest rates. I’m 27 and only in the past year have I paid any attention whatsoever, and only then that’s because I found this blog and took an interest in investing/real estate. A year ago I would have had no idea at all about what the current interest rate was or the history of low rates. Interest rates being low for the past 7 years has had zero affect on most of Millennials lives (from what they can see at least). Like I said, it’s probably only when people reach my age, perhaps a little sooner or later, do people really pay any attention to macroeconomics.

You really think Millennials growing up in an era of low interest rates makes them think it will stay that way? It isn’t the Millennials I assure you, most of us are totally oblivious until we consider buying a house. Sadly even then many of us don’t consider what a changing interest rate will do to our mortgage repayments.

It isn’t the Millennials, look elsewhere. Perhaps Gen X who have lived with low interest rates for the adult part of their lives.

#62 Investorz on 11.25.15 at 8:35 pm

0.2% increase in rates on a 300k mortgage is about 30$ more per month.

We’ll need a 1% increase to really hurt. Until then jobs jobs jobs matter. Bell layoffs, Maple Leaf layoffs, that is what hurts.

Interesting that Timbercreek which lends to condo projects – TMG ( logo you see all over Toronto on condo construction banners ) has been in a serious downtrend this year. There are signs of trouble brewing even before the rate increase.

#63 paul on 11.25.15 at 8:35 pm

Here’s one for the kiddies!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMzd40i8TfA

#64 Market Man on 11.25.15 at 8:37 pm

I still believe this will be more about un employment.
The telcos have begun laying off slowly and so have the banks. (Rogers has just let go of all their IT VPs)
What you probably would want is oil to drop to the low 30s thus pushing the CAD below 70 cents thus causing the price of goods to rise forcing the BOC to raise the overnight rate

#65 Chris in Nanaimo on 11.25.15 at 8:37 pm

#17 MF “Yup. You can actually feel the desperation coming from some women at that age.”

It’s called ‘The Wall’ in Red pill speak. A woman who keeps herself reasonably fit and feminine can pretty much have her pick of a partner….up until about the age of 30. Then the tables reverse. Assuming a guy (30+) has kept himself in shape, and has his shit together, and a modicum of ‘game’ he can reasonably expect to have a partner a decade younger should he choose.

Doesn’t work the other way around after ‘the wall’….simple evolutionary biology at play aka…or ‘sexual market value – SMV’

#66 MF on 11.25.15 at 8:42 pm

#50 Smoking Man on 11.25.15 at 7:51 pm

“I once played Texas Holden at the Hardrock in Vegas, this black dude was at our table, everyone was making a fuss out of him. And he was playing like an idiot, I took a few thousand of him..as did many others.”

That might explain why he filed for bankruptcy recently.

You talk to him at all? He seems like a pretty decent guy.

Just got fleeced by the Smoking Man.

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/50-cent-bankruptcy-filing-lists-seven-cars-8-3-million-n403891

MF

#67 mike from Mtl on 11.25.15 at 8:45 pm

#51 Justin Case on 11.25.15 at 7:51 pm
The Liberals will not allow housing to come down and rip our faltering economy apart. So, next year, when the CAD will be 60 cents to the USD, they will reinstate 40-year mortgages and zero downpayments. What other option do they have?
===================================

Agreed and that’s probably the most likely, rates or not. Even if by some strange turn of events rates creep up quickly I seriously doubt there will be a sudden crash in RE. Lots of vested interest and basically 70+% ‘investment’ is their RE holdings to keep this stupidity going.

Always knew the Japanese were 20-30 years ahead of the west, seems to be for me.

#68 Wussmode on 11.25.15 at 8:47 pm

I know you’re a cocky guy Garth and that is rather entertaining, but face it that no one really knows what’s going to happen next month with rates or what that will cause. Expect the unexpected.

#69 MF on 11.25.15 at 8:50 pm

#61 Andrew on 11.25.15 at 8:28 pm

Exactly.

I am 32 and only started paying attention to interest rates and anything economics related really for the past 4 odd years.

Gen X is the generation that has ridden the house prices upwards the most IMO. Most bought in late 90’s early 2000’s and have already moved on to their 3rd or 4th property and rental (all leveraged to the hilt of course). What could go wrong?

I think Gen X is by far the most delusional when it comes to housing. The sad thing is, if you are part of that generation and didn’t either (a) buy real estate when the rest of your demographic did or (b) invested in the stock market smartly the whole time..you are pretty much screwed. I’m willing to wager a large percentage of the whining we hear on here is from Gen X that missed the boat and is very bitter about it.

MF

#70 zee on 11.25.15 at 8:53 pm

Hey Garth

TD also says that prices will only go down 1-3 percent in 2016.

How is that possible if rates do rise to 3%.

Did I not say they sell mortgages? — Garth

#71 common sense on 11.25.15 at 8:55 pm

Fed rate HAS to rise in the USA in December.

After all the economy is just booming….

#72 johnk on 11.25.15 at 8:56 pm

#35 OMG the original

Yes. Those of us who actually live in Victoria know this. A friend in OB sold inside a week, getting $950K on an asking price of $899K.
I got a sneering “you must be a real estate agent” when I posted it. I’m not.

#73 Transformer Man on 11.25.15 at 8:57 pm

I’m a Gen X homeowner. Reality does bite. After the Great Canadian Housing Correction my house will probably end up worth what I paid for it in 2005. That’s right 2005.

I have no mortgage fortunately. Unfortunately, many of my friends have utilized mad-bank-leverage and own several residential rental properties.

Will rents fall along with home prices?

#74 Smoking Man on 11.25.15 at 8:59 pm

#66 MF on 11.25.15 at 8:42 pm
#50 Smoking Man on 11.25.15 at 7:51 pm

“I once played Texas Holden at the Hardrock in Vegas, this black dude was at our table, everyone was making a fuss out of him. And he was playing like an idiot, I took a few thousand of him..as did many others.”

That might explain why he filed for bankruptcy recently.

You talk to him at all? He seems like a pretty decent guy.

Just got fleeced by the Smoking Man.

http://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/50-cent-bankruptcy-filing-lists-seven-cars-8-3-million-n403891

MF

Guy was a beauty, I think he was losing on purpose so us minions would say nice shit about him..

Seams like it worked..

#75 Andy on 11.25.15 at 9:01 pm

Fed rate hike cycles since 1983 have averaged 414 days in length, with an average of a 2.81% increase. It’s time to get this party started.

Source: https://www.anony.ws/image/JbG0

#76 Transformer Man on 11.25.15 at 9:02 pm

I’m amazed at how much rents are even in my home Niagara Region. I don’t understand it. There doesn’t seem to be a supply shortage here yet rents keep rising so most people buy & mortgage over renting.

Why?

#77 Joe on 11.25.15 at 9:03 pm

Wow one percent. Payments increase by a few hundred a month. I guess we’ll see massive defaults.

Nobody suggested defaults, but thanks for the senseless exaggeration. The threat is a hit to sales and equity. Bad enough. — Garth

#78 Smoking Man on 11.25.15 at 9:03 pm

#68 Wussmode on 11.25.15 at 8:47 pm
I know you’re a cocky guy Garth and that is rather entertaining, but face it that no one really knows what’s going to happen next month with rates or what that will cause. Expect the unexpected.
….

You’re new? Otherwise you would know someone around here knows what will happen next month.
Next year, next 50 years..

Do you even know what a nectonite is?

#79 omg the original on 11.25.15 at 9:08 pm

A month ago the odds of a US interest rate hike were 27%. On Wednesday they were 74%……….. On December 16th, barring a global military conflict or Janet Yellin being abducted by Nectonites, we’ll be launched into a new era.
—————–

This first rate hike is as much about optics as the economy.

A 1/4% rate increase won’t really hurt anyone, except those truly on the razors edge and they should likely be put out of their misery anyways.

The EMERGENCY rates we have had for the last 7 years have created so many distortions in the market the Fed at least has to try to show that emergency rates are not forever. To demonstrate that yes children rates do go up.

This will be the first rate hike – but if the world economy does not improve we may not see the next rate hike until 2017.

The Fed has delayed because when they start, they will continue. Your scenario will not come to pass. — Garth

#80 Where's the beef? on 11.25.15 at 9:09 pm

Yeah sure…it will suck for the house horny if rates go up. We have heard about it ad nauseum. But what about governments? Have you looked at Ontario’s debt level and the cost of servicing that debt? If interest rates rise as you suggest, critical public services we assume to be untouchable are no longer sustainable. The US is no different….the fact remains that inflation is still shockingly low and a slow and steady rise in interest rates could de-stabilize the tenuous economy?

#81 Red Deer Rob on 11.25.15 at 9:09 pm

Garth, you make a dull topic like interest rates bearable. Those blog references and euphemisms are hilarious. If the Nectonites do kidnap Janet Yellen or there is ww3 will Bernake style stimulus make a comeback? And, moreover, in that case should we head to the bunker?

#82 DavidP on 11.25.15 at 9:12 pm

Have you seen how they’re trying to push out the remaining unsold inventory at Canary District condos in Toronto?

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/11/06/home-ownership-within-your-financial-reach-at-canary-district

“Plus, first-time buyers can buy with only $1,000 down, combined with a 3% deposit over 90 days which can be used towards closing costs.”

Terrifying.

#83 dr talc on 11.25.15 at 9:13 pm

did you ever have the feeling that your future was predicted in 20 yr old TV commercials? you will

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZb0avfQme8

#84 omg the original on 11.25.15 at 9:16 pm

Joe on 11.25.15 at 9:03 pm
Wow one percent. Payments increase by a few hundred a month. I guess we’ll see massive defaults.
————-

Nope 1% will not do much to house prices.

As I noted here a couple weeks ago thats $370/m more on a $700k mortgage. People will find the money for that without question. Look at how the unemployed can hang on to their houses in Calgary.

Its the 3-5% range of rate hikes where the rubber will start hitting the road. That’s when cutting cell phone plans, selling one of the Lexus and taking lunch to work will not be enough.

You do not understand the market. Of course people renewing will swallow the increase. It’s the perception that rates are rising and housing is no longer a slam-dunk that will reduce valuations, reduce sales and end up squeezing recent buyers. But, wait and see. — Garth

#85 omg the original on 11.25.15 at 9:23 pm

This will be the first rate hike – but if the world economy does not improve we may not see the next rate hike until 2017.

The Fed has delayed because when they start, they will continue. Your scenario will not come to pass. — Garth
——————————–

Nobody knows the future.

But I don’t have enough fingers and toes to count the times over the past 7 years when we all thought that the Fed would be raising rates.

#86 MF on 11.25.15 at 9:27 pm

#65 Chris in Nanaimo on 11.25.15 at 8:

Yep. Although there are still some attractive 30+ women around.

Its interesting how Our society tries to shun men away from dating younger women. Before I met my current girlfriend I was dating a 22 year old woman (I had just turned 31). We got along great but I kept hearing from co workers, friends and the like that she was too young, we have nothing in common, different stages in life blah blah.

Anyhow, I’m not a huge fan of the PUA stuff, and I don’t believe in “game” but the material is entertaining to read. The alpha/beta thing is the best. I think if you need to keep telling yourself that you are alpha, you are not alpha but what do I know lol

Cute story. Gf is straight from Manila. Been here 2 years now. When I met her her friend (same situation also a cute girl) had all these guys trying to use PUA on her. It was hilarious how it doesn’t work on a proper foreign girl AT ALL. The friend was just confused about how this guy is “always busy, texts only once a day, probably not serious etc”. Those dudes shot themselves in the foot.

MF

#87 Smoking Man on 11.25.15 at 9:31 pm

Well my sober new life has had a set back…

At Seneca on a wed night, no one is perfect.

But I realized all the shit Hemingway, and Hunter S Thompson where saying, like write drunk , stoned ,edit sobar is bull shit.

They wanted to eliminate competition…. no one can fool a Smoking Man.

I write way better sobar.. however, you get great ideas being pissed out of your mind.. I’m working on it.

New approach, rather than talking to yourself when you are about to fall into perfectly set table cloth tables.

Talk to your phone, hit the record button….

Abstain from drink for a couple of days, then play it back. Your head is not in a fuzz, , pick out the best bits from that journey and you will finally finish that fking book….

I got this now…

#88 paul on 11.25.15 at 9:35 pm

#84 omg the original on 11.25.15 at 9:16 pm

Joe on 11.25.15 at 9:03 pm
Wow one percent. Payments increase by a few hundred a month. I guess we’ll see massive defaults.
————-

Nope 1% will not do much to house prices.

As I noted here a couple weeks ago thats $370/m more on a $700k mortgage. People will find the money for that without question. Look at how the unemployed can hang on to their houses in Calgary.

Its the 3-5% range of rate hikes where the rubber will start hitting the road. That’s when cutting cell phone plans, selling one of the Lexus and taking lunch to work will not be enough.

You do not understand the market. Of course people renewing will swallow the increase. It’s the perception that rates are rising and housing is no longer a slam-dunk that will reduce valuations, reduce sales and end up squeezing recent buyers. But, wait and see. — Garth
———————————————————-

I know, I should bite my tongue but Garth you should be a Realtor.
You could have been a contender!!!

#89 omg the original on 11.25.15 at 9:37 pm

omg the original on 11.25.15 at 9:16 pm
Joe on 11.25.15 at 9:03 pm
Wow one percent. Payments increase by a few hundred a month. I guess we’ll see massive defaults.
————-

Nope 1% will not do much to house prices.

—————-
You do not understand the market. Of course people renewing will swallow the increase. It’s the perception that rates are rising and housing is no longer a slam-dunk that will reduce valuations, reduce sales and end up squeezing recent buyers. But, wait and see. — Garth
—————-

Actually Garth, I do not know that anybody can credibly claim to understand the YVR/TO market.

An increase in rates over then next year will be an interesting experiment just as Calgary has provided an interesting “unemployment/recession” experiment.

But let’s wait and see if rates actually advance in a meaningful way.

#90 Bottoms_Up on 11.25.15 at 9:40 pm

Garth, the government has aided and abetted the housing market, taking the risk from banks and knowingly inflating the housing market to keep consumers spending.

Damn right they’ll do something to protect hundreds of thousands of families that might end up underwater due to their stupid policies.

Consumerism is “too big to fail”.

#91 Bottoms_Up on 11.25.15 at 9:45 pm

#65 Chris in Nanaimo on 11.25.15 at 8:37 pm
——————————-
Don’t worry, you will reach an age where you realize age isn’t everything.

#92 Leo Trollstoy on 11.25.15 at 9:46 pm

FYI

50 cent filed for Chapter 11. Not Chapter 13.

There’s a difference.

He ain’t broke.

#93 John on 11.25.15 at 9:47 pm

Somethings up for sure, Garth. A few hoods I watch west of the GTA have started belching real estate signs not even close to a Spring thing, this week in fact! Some folks might think another election has been called or something!

#94 Ronaldo on 11.25.15 at 9:51 pm

#64 Market Man

“What you probably would want is oil to drop to the low 30s thus pushing the CAD below 70 cents thus causing the price of goods to rise forcing the BOC to raise the overnight rate”

I would think that the lower cost of transportation with oil at this level would offset quite a lot of the increase in prices of goods from the U.S. as a result of the exchange difference. A lot of the cost is in transport. A lower dollar would help our export markets where prices are set in U.S. Dollars. That would be good for our economy and I would doubt that the BOC would raise the rates when our economy is already floundering. However, we will see what happens comes Dec. 16th.

#95 Smoking Man on 11.25.15 at 9:52 pm

You do not understand the market. Of course people renewing will swallow the increase. It’s the perception that rates are rising and housing is no longer a slam-dunk that will reduce valuations, reduce sales and end up squeezing recent buyers. But, wait and see. — Garth

….

Garth what your not factoring into your Herdonomics analysis, those pesky Slime sucking Realtors…

Their going to say to clients, that’s the USA.. then present web forcasest on line that say, due to oil being so low, the bank of Canada might cut again…

Look the wife right in the eye, resisting peeks at her boobs, it’s now or never he says..

You know the ball less millennial husband will cave..

Gartho, I’m uping you to an orange belt in Herdonomics..

Bit more to go for a black belt…

#96 Leo Trollstoy on 11.25.15 at 9:53 pm

It’s called ‘The Wall’ in Red pill speak. A woman who keeps herself reasonably fit and feminine can pretty much have her pick of a partner….up until about the age of 30.

The wall for women is actually closer to 45.

Already lots of literature about that.

30 year old women have absolutely no trouble finding a partner.

#97 Daisy Mae on 11.25.15 at 9:53 pm

The facial expressions are priceless. Don’t mess with ‘Karma’ — he is definitely a hard case! LOL

Methinks Karma’s a bitch. — Garth

#98 Shirley valentine. on 11.25.15 at 9:53 pm

#87 Smoking Man on 11.25.15 at 9:31 pm
Well my sober new life has had a set back…

At Seneca on a wed night, no one is perfect.

But I realized all the shit Hemingway, and Hunter S Thompson where saying, like write drunk , stoned ,edit sobar is bull shit.

They wanted to eliminate competition…. no one can fool a Smoking Man.

I write way better sobar.. however, you get great ideas being pissed out of your mind.. I’m working on it.

New approach, rather than talking to yourself when you are about to fall into perfectly set table cloth tables.

Talk to your phone, hit the record button….

Abstain from drink for a couple of days, then play it back. Your head is not in a fuzz, , pick out the best bits from that journey and you will finally finish that fking book….

I got this now…
——-
Wow dude. Way to change it up!!

Numerous delete posts soon to follow as you rage against the machine.

#99 John on 11.25.15 at 9:55 pm

No one in our family will believe bad things happen until he/she gets smacked, personally. Even as they watch the oil patch and coal mining relatives sinking almost next door in front of their very eyes….. Forget it. One of the youngsters just put an offer in on a BC interior house today. His Mom’s cheering him on. They don’t want to know even when it’s happening all around them even to their own millenial cousins. They’re like lemmings. Immortal and invincible. Bad is what happens to someone else. Feel sad about it but what can I say that I haven’t already?

#100 Leo Trollstoy on 11.25.15 at 9:56 pm

Canada was going down the drain while the CPC was in power. That’s all that history I will remember, as well…

PC will be recognized for peak Alberta oil and real estate prices.

NDP will be known for the opposite. Rock bottom oil and housing crash.

#101 steerage steward on 11.25.15 at 10:01 pm

Actually just picked up a bottle of Highland Park 18 yo for a get together this weekend. Had to sample it to make sure it hadn’t gone bad. Cheers all.

#102 John in Mtl on 11.25.15 at 10:03 pm

#73 Transformer Man on 11.25.15 at 8:57 pm
…”Will rents fall along with home prices?”

I for one, doubt it. They’ll probably rise; supply and demand. People have to live somewhere so if they sell their house & have no money to downsize to another one, they’ll have to rent. If too many people do this, demand goes up, landlords rub their hands and laugh all the way to the bank.

U.S. experience proved the opposite. — Garth

#103 Smoking Man on 11.25.15 at 10:07 pm

DELETED

#104 Fred on 11.25.15 at 10:08 pm

Been reading 6 years. I think you’re finally right. Rates gonna rise. What’s the impact on the investment portfolio?

#105 MF on 11.25.15 at 10:17 pm

96 Leo Trollstoy on 11.25.15 at 9:53 pm

That’s because the PUA (pick up artist) community is mostly composed of frustrated dudes in their teens and twenties. They have this fantasy that at some arbitrary point (age 30 here) the tables will turn and the frustration will disappear.

Thanks for the fitty cent clarification. No idea what the difference is.

MF

#106 Reader 66 on 11.25.15 at 10:19 pm

I didn’t find any Canadian media picked up this Bloomberg report about China cracked down the underground banks that helped transfer money overseas.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-20/china-cracks-64-billion-underground-bank-moving-money-abroad

A lot of folks don’t know is that each Chinese citizen is allowed to transfer only 50,000 yuan a year out of China. That is approximately CAD $10,000. It is almost impossible for any Chinese citizen to buy a one million dollar home with cash legally in Canada.

Don’t know too much about business, do you? — Garth

#107 John in Mtl on 11.25.15 at 10:20 pm

#102 John in Mtl on 11.25.15 at 10:03 pm
“U.S. experience proved the opposite. — Garth”

/sarcasm on
Yes but, but… but its different, here!
/sarcasm off

Hum, I didn’t know that.

My reply is based on experience here in Mtl anyways – I’ve never, ever seen rent prices go down around here, only up. I’ve rented most of my adult life & moved many many times. I’m currently renting (sold condo 3 yrs ago) and every year the company raises rents; I’m racking my brains to figure out a way to accept that they DON’T raise the rent again this year.

#108 Smoking Man on 11.25.15 at 10:20 pm

#103 Smoking Man on 11.25.15 at 10:07 pm
DELETED

Come on garth , you know Sherly Valentine has the hots for me..

Perhaps my well crafted post was a bit much..to cunning.

But hell. I just wanted some nude picks, I think your jealous..

#109 gut check on 11.25.15 at 10:26 pm

*

You always bet incorrectly if you bet against Nectonites.

It’s a fact.

#110 Patrick on 11.25.15 at 10:28 pm

#95 Smoking Man on 11.25.15 at 9:52 pm
Garth what your not factoring into your Herdonomics analysis, those pesky Slime sucking Realtors…
_____________________________________

One of them offered to sit down over coffee, with my gf and I, to discuss my bubble concerns. Said there was nothing to worry about because “there is no more land in Mississauga to build on”. She seemed to think that this was a good argument for why prices will continue to climb.

#111 AB Boxster on 11.25.15 at 10:28 pm

And the winner of Best Premier of Alberta for the next 4 years – Brad Wall

The winner of the biggest idiot in Canada – David Suzuki
Close call with Pete Mansbride but Davie pulled ahead with his recent ‘slavery’ comments.

#112 [email protected] on 11.25.15 at 10:35 pm

It’s true. The west end is the best end in TO.

I just narrowly averted a new found houselust for the second time. And I get it. Interest rates are still quite low. But houses here…are very overpriced. And the soft market and what seems like overstock of houses of all types will lead to some serious difficulty.

This is not for me. Thankfully, I rent.

#113 LH on 11.25.15 at 10:35 pm

What if Janet Yellen IS a nectonite?

#114 Washed Up Lawyer on 11.25.15 at 10:35 pm

“There is nothing more valuable than the shadow of a man/woman on his/her own land.”

This is an ancient proverb from my idiotic father.

Hence, my current financial straits.

#115 dertzlfit on 11.25.15 at 10:37 pm

#223 Luis on 11.25.15 at 6:34 pm
176 Smoking Man

Looks like you got your ass handed to you, SM.

You come off like such a dinosaur idiot.

And you call the PM “Justina” because that sounds feminine, and of course women to you are inferior trash.

You really are such a moron loser. Go away.”

So I am guessing, you wouldn’t be comfortable being called Luisa????

#116 lee on 11.25.15 at 10:41 pm

Joe, #77

You do realize a one per cent increase to someone paying 2.5 per cent is 40 per cent more a month in dollars. For a person paying 3000 a month now that’s 4200 a month after the increase and he has to come up with the extra 1200 a month after taxes and with the encumbent increases in realty taxes and utilities. I hope you don’t have big mortgage. And where do you get “a few hundred a month” from. Someone with a 900 a month mortgage might see that.

#117 CalgaryCarGuy on 11.25.15 at 10:42 pm

Re/#55 Ronaldo

You are so right. I can’t believe how Canadians are being sucked in so bad with this b.s. Climate change is a discussion involving the planet. Land masses, geography. Therefore, the fact that Canada is the second largest country in the world, filled with mostly trees,rocks,and dirt and a very tiny population obviously makes us one of (if not the most) least polluting countries in the world. Our trees and plant-life gobble up way more CO2 than we create. But no, the environmentalists want to compare everybody on a per-capita basis. Never mind the fact that we live in a very large, cold country. Of course we will use more energy in our daily lives! We, as a country, have a very,very small effect on the planet considering our land mass. In fact, we are probably the greenest country on earth. Our massive forests are more than compensating for our miniscule carbon creation from heating our cold homes and fueling our transportation. We are being conned.

#118 Shirley valentine on 11.25.15 at 10:45 pm

#108 Smoking Man on 11.25.15 at 10:20 pm

#103 Smoking Man on 11.25.15 at 10:07 pm
DELETED

Come on garth , you know Sherly Valentine has the hots for me..

Perhaps my well crafted post was a bit much..to cunning.

But hell. I just wanted some nude picks, I think your jealous.
— —
Oh you studly beast of a man was that for me. So much rage . . . .. . you need help to work it out.

#119 dertzlfit on 11.25.15 at 10:50 pm

#69 MF on 11.25.15 at 8:50 pm
#61 Andrew on 11.25.15 at 8:28 pm

Exactly.

I am 32 and only started paying attention to interest rates and anything economics related really for the past 4 odd years.

MF”

Ok, lemme get this straight…you discovered economics at 28 and hot foreign chix at 32…..one wonders what you are going to discover at 36…..definitely on a roll though, keep it up!

#120 USD 73 billion on 11.25.15 at 10:54 pm

Chinese insurers are expected to pour $73 billion into buying properties all over the world

The major cities include Singapore, Sydney and Tokyo in the Asia-Pacific region. Property investment activity will expand to Berlin, Frankfurt, Munich and Paris, according to the team. The North American markets of Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Toronto and Washington will also attract high investment activity, she said.

Last year, the report said total real estate holdings accounted for 0.8 per cent, or US$13.4 billion, of Chinese insurance industry’s assets under management, well below the permitted allocation of 30 per cent. Just under half of this US$13.4 billion is estimated to have been deployed overseas.

“For the five largest Chinese insurers, total allocations remain low and no greater than two per cent, with some below 1 per cent,” said director and head of capital markets research Nigel Almond.

Over the next five years, the report forecast, allocations are expected to grow from the current levels to nearly five per cent, with an additional US$73 billion poured into overseas real estate properties.

That will raise total overseas real estate investment from US$6 billion last year to US$79 billion by 2019, and to US$154 billion by 2024.

#121 Ex-Cowtown on 11.25.15 at 10:58 pm

DELETED

+++++++++++++++

(Okay, not really, but I just wanted to live vicariously through Smoking Man)

Almost as much fun as being FUURRRRSTTTT!

#122 Patrick on 11.25.15 at 10:59 pm

I had to check if Psy was some financial term I didn’t know or if Garth was actually referencing gangnam style. I’m still not sure tbh.

the millennial housing boom anthem (from your fav)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HkMNOlYcpHg

I think smoking man can relate too.

#123 unemployed rapper :) on 11.25.15 at 10:59 pm

Did Garth say Snnnoooooop?
There’s a bubble in the crib ma.
Pop it like it’s hot, pop it like it’s hot, pop it like it’s hot.
When the banks try to git at ya.
Drop it like it’s hot, drop it like it’s hot, drop it like it’s hot.
When a realtor get an attitude.
Pop it like it’s hot, pop it like it’s hot, pop it like it’s hot.
Livin’ on debt’s door, with appliances on the lawn.
And Smokin’ Man’s next door, so we got it goin’ on.

#124 lee bow on 11.25.15 at 11:07 pm

Smoking Man, I know from my pro poker player friends that those who drink, lose. Do you fake drunkness to invite bluffs, or are you a losing payer? No offense pls.

To support your excuse for drinking, they say that those Copenhagen folks (Niels Bohr et al) were drinking to suppress the conventional thinking in order to come up with the non-deterministic models of the matter.

#125 HD on 11.25.15 at 11:12 pm

#105 MF on 11.25.15 at 10:17 pm

Thanks for the fitty cent clarification. No idea what the difference is.

——————

It is a strategic ‘bankruptcy’ if you will. He filed under chapt 11 to delay a huge payment of a lawsuit he lost.

Best,

HD

#126 Freedom First on 11.25.15 at 11:13 pm

Rents are dropping in Alberta.

Also, when the people go into foreclosures on their houses they can’t/couldn’t afford, even in large numbers, the governments and the banks will not help them out of their self induced consequences. Personal responsibility will be a new lesson for the entitled. Some call life the “school of hard knocks” for the ignorant.

The CMHC is insured however.

If you think the people got help in the U.S during the GFC and ensuing housing collapse, Obomba did come out with a plan to help people. Unfortunately, it was too late and hardly anybody qualified for help.

#127 Fred Murtz on 11.25.15 at 11:14 pm

Following the CPD and ZPR like a hawk…..preffs should be going up given the news…yet is swooning…possibly back to support…CPD into the low 12’s…should be a good place to buy if support holds after breaking below 13….xmas blues maybe….tax loss selling…wadda ya think?

Also watching mut fund Fidelity Small cap America..FID261….at all time highs…3 yr has doubled….could get wacked with Yellen Jelly comin down. But….will that be a great buy opp……MER 1.5….not bad for that performance. Big dip might turn something over for Christmas so weeza can slide in and groove on the profits should performance to continue to stay on track. 5 Star Morningstar Rating. Watch list people. Input anyone?

#128 malik on 11.25.15 at 11:16 pm

No hike. Only a bluff to keep Mr market in check.

#129 kommykim on 11.25.15 at 11:34 pm

RE:

#81 Red Deer Rob on 11.25.15 at 9:09 pm
And, moreover, in that case should we head to the bunker?

I’d much rather have my shadow immortalized on a concrete wall than die a slow death due to starvation and radiation poisoning.

#130 Smoking Man on 11.25.15 at 11:42 pm

#109 gut check on 11.25.15 at 10:26 pm
*

You always bet incorrectly if you bet against Nectonites.

It’s a fact.
….

You do know in love you. You female bad ass artist.

#131 kommykim on 11.25.15 at 11:47 pm

RE:

#84 omg the original on 11.25.15 at 9:16 pm
Joe on 11.25.15 at 9:03 pm
Wow one percent. Payments increase by a few hundred a month. I guess we’ll see massive defaults.
————-
Nope 1% will not do much to house prices.
As I noted here a couple weeks ago thats $370/m more on a $700k mortgage. People will find the money for that without question.

What you are forgetting is that a rise in interest rates will lower the maximum dollar amount that every buyer can borrow. That means that the house horny couple who once qualified for a $700K mortgage would only qualify for a $600K one if interest rates go up enough.

#132 lee on 11.25.15 at 11:48 pm

#120,

Have you done the math? 73B divided by $1000000 a property divided by at least 15 cities rolled out over three to four years is about 1000 properties per city per year for three or four years. This assumes it’s 73B and only 15 cities and only $1000000 a property which is likely low given the cities on the list. Frankly, I think you’re making up the numbers but if you aren’t they are negligible to the Toronto market. If this is all you got then it’s not much.

#133 MF on 11.25.15 at 11:50 pm

#119 dertzlfit on 11.25.15 at 10:50 pm

Haha maybe how to become a Nectonite?

#125 HD on 11.25.15 at 11:12 pm

Thank you for the clarification. I figured he wasn’t exactly broke with assets in the millions and stardom.

MF

#134 Yuus bin Haad on 11.25.15 at 11:54 pm

Totally entertaining post and comment tonight, but “(that’s so cute)” – HA!

#135 Predictions2015! on 11.26.15 at 12:03 am

So far 2015 is turning out to be one hell of a roller coaster year!

The FOMC meeting this December will be the last interest rate decision for 2015. With so much US Fed talk of raising the interest rates in 2015, their inaction of actually raising the interest rate by only up to 0.25% throughout this year reveals just how weak the US recovery truly is.

Given the US Fed’s failure to raise interest rates throughout the majority of 2015, why would they raise the interest rate in December?

They’re not.

Just wait and you’ll see what I mean.

#136 Larry Laffer on 11.26.15 at 12:03 am

Have a scotch

I definitely would, but sadly my bottle of Lagavulin 16 years has been sitting empty for a while. Anybody care to suggest me a worthy successor?

#137 bb on 11.26.15 at 12:07 am

@#51 Justin Case on 11.25.15 at 7:51 pm

I agree with you on that. Property tax collection is huge with inflated prices. Plus its much logical to have a lower CAD to make housing cheaper to 250k immigrants (They come with USD then exchange to CAD) coming this 2016 than to raise interest rates.

#138 Kenchie on 11.26.15 at 12:12 am

#48 I am the Babblemaster on 11.25.15 at 7:47 pm
““As this pathetic blog has tried to make clear, rates will rise and they won’t stop for a while. The increases will be steady, slow and methodical.” – Garth

————————————————

You don’t know this. Nobody does. What is clear is that we have a fragile economy and that higher interest rates will hurt it.”

Canada has a fragile economy… the US has moved from fragile to stabilizing and will soon be in strong growth mode. At less than 120% debt-to-disposable income, higher interest rates won’t hurt the US consumer too much. Furthermore, companies need higher hurdle rates to make productivity-enhancing investments (which will boost the economy). Raise interest rates will lead to more efficient use of capital by the US corporates by reimposing discipline on managers.

#139 Fine Roasted Nutz on 11.26.15 at 12:17 am

#136 Larry Laffer on 11.26.15 at 12:03 am

Have a scotch

I definitely would, but sadly my bottle of Lagavulin 16 years has been sitting empty for a while. Anybody care to suggest me a worthy successor?
– – – –
There is none better.

#140 Victor V on 11.26.15 at 12:19 am

[VIDEO] Housing In Canada: Mortgage Rates Rising Sooner Than You Think

http://tdwealthmedia.com/videos/housing-in-canada-mortgage-rates-rising-sooner-than-you-think/

#141 Kenchie on 11.26.15 at 12:23 am

#107 John in Mtl on 11.25.15 at 10:20 pm
“#102 John in Mtl on 11.25.15 at 10:03 pm
“U.S. experience proved the opposite. — Garth”

/sarcasm on
Yes but, but… but its different, here!
/sarcasm off

Hum, I didn’t know that.

My reply is based on experience here in Mtl anyways – I’ve never, ever seen rent prices go down around here, only up. I’ve rented most of my adult life & moved many many times. I’m currently renting (sold condo 3 yrs ago) and every year the company raises rents; I’m racking my brains to figure out a way to accept that they DON’T raise the rent again this year.”

Companies are different than mom-n-pop landlords. Companies charge ‘market rents’ and have a fiduciary duty to charge the maximum rents they can achieve. Mom-n-pops don’t know what they’re doing and thus leave money on the table for the tenants to keep.

#142 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.26.15 at 12:26 am

#125 HD on 11.25.15 at 11:12 pm
#105 MF on 11.25.15 at 10:17 pm
Thanks for the fitty cent clarification. No idea what the difference is.
——————
It is a strategic ‘bankruptcy’ if you will. He filed under chapt 11 to delay a huge payment of a lawsuit he lost.
———
This guy should have called himself “My 2 cents worth”,
and would only be paying 2 cents to every dollar owed.

#143 BS on 11.26.15 at 12:33 am

Global warming solved!

After bike lanes didn’t work the lefties of Vancouver city council have figured out how to stop global warming.

http://www.straight.com/news/584011/cigarette-style-warning-labels-about-climate-change-may-soon-appear-gas-stations-around

Clearly we need carbon taxes to support such government initiatives.

#144 Kenchie on 11.26.15 at 12:35 am

#131 kommykim on 11.25.15 at 11:47 pm
“RE:
#84 omg the original on 11.25.15 at 9:16 pm
Joe on 11.25.15 at 9:03 pm
Wow one percent. Payments increase by a few hundred a month. I guess we’ll see massive defaults.
————-
Nope 1% will not do much to house prices.
As I noted here a couple weeks ago thats $370/m more on a $700k mortgage. People will find the money for that without question.
————–
What you are forgetting is that a rise in interest rates will lower the maximum dollar amount that every buyer can borrow. That means that the house horny couple who once qualified for a $700K mortgage would only qualify for a $600K one if interest rates go up enough.”

Bingo! For every 25 bps increase in mortgage rates, quantity of credit available at that interest rate falls by about 2%. So a 1% increase will drop the mortgage credit offered by a bank by ~8%. Using $700k mortgage as an example, it would go down to $644k if interest rates go up 1%. As Garth mentioned, they’ve already started moving up.

#145 whitehorn on 11.26.15 at 12:45 am

I welcome the higher interest rates as see it beneficial going forward, actually like to see them around 3-4 percent similar to pre 2008. Unfortunately, the increase in rates could cause a lot of hurt for house owners who bought over the last 10 years. The real problem, especially in places like Alberta where a house easily doubled in price over the last 15 years, will be hard on ,many people making mortgage payments due to the slowdown in the economy, which is unlikely to return to economic strength anytime soon i.e. years. The only time I can blame the govt. – is why did they juice the housing market in 2005ish with the 40 year mortgages and almost nil down mandates? This will probably be one of the worst plans introduced by the government as look back in time. I believe a lot of this current housing mess would of been less severe, but will now become difficult for many homeowners. Houses/farmland/commercial/residential land have become severely overpriced especially in a challenging economy in AB and will see a good size correction.

#146 ole Doberman on 11.26.15 at 12:47 am

Gartho is your gut feeling telling you money will flow out of bonds into equities since rates will be rising. Tsx could use the boost, no?

#147 45north on 11.26.15 at 12:47 am

Justin Case: The Liberals will not allow housing to come down and rip our faltering economy apart. So, next year, when the CAD will be 60 cents to the USD, they will reinstate 40-year mortgages and zero downpayments. What other option do they have?

it’s CMHC that sets the rules for mortgages. there’s no point in being the Chairman if you have to go begging. I mean in the next four years. Better to walk out now with your head held high.

http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/about/cogo/cogo_060.cfm

ed: My first home had a 18.5% mortgage on it…tried to get out from under it and listed the house for$149,000…sold it in 5 months for $79,000.

just above half!

Market Man: I still believe this will be more about unemployment.

me too

Where’s the beef: Have you looked at Ontario’s debt level and the cost of servicing that debt? If interest rates rise, critical public services we assume to be untouchable will no longer be sustainable.

I used to walk around Queens Park back when I worked for the U of T. One day I turned the corner and saw the Premier – Bill Davis. We both looked up and then continued on our ways. The point being there was no security. None.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Davis

I mean as government services get cut, government will become increasingly unpopular. It won’t be fun anymore.

#148 Ronaldo on 11.26.15 at 12:47 am

#117 CalgaryCarGuy on 11.25.15 at 10:42 pm
Re/#55 Ronaldo

Being from Alberta, you are well aware of the coal industry in your province being one of the major producers of the stuff. Whenever someone talks to me about how badly we are polluting our country I like to make them aware that we are but a tiny part of the entire world problem and present them with the stats which are quite mind blowing.

Total world consumption of coal in 2012 was 8,439,854,000 tonnes. That’s billlions. A one mile long train represents 10,000 tonnes. Total consumption then represents a continuous train stretching 843,985 miles. A distance that is 3.5 times the distance from the earth to the moon.(average distance is 239,000 miles) And that is annually. Canada consumes about 60,000,000 tonnes or 1/140th. of the total but still a lot of coal considering it represents a continuous trainload stretching 6000 miles or roughly the distance from coast to coast. Each year. See chart below.

http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?product=coal

#149 OXI in GREECE on 11.26.15 at 12:51 am

I have to agree. After many years of hanging my “FREE Beer Tomorrow” sign in my office…..(The Fed is raising rates next year) I think this time they will raise rates. I mean shit……it’s only been 8 years.

“Today the Fed open market committee raised rates 0.25%”

…….wow. I think a hair just stood up somewhere.

#150 drydock on 11.26.15 at 12:53 am

This video shows how dangerous Nectonite ‘s can be.

https://youtu.be/RlHHhCxAw5I

#151 OXI in GREECE on 11.26.15 at 12:55 am

#71 common sense on 11.25.15 at 8:55 pm
Fed rate HAS to rise in the USA in December.

After all the economy is just booming
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Speaking of a BOOMING US economy….Mc Jobs is closing more Mc Stores putting more Mc People out of Mc Jobs….

http://247wallst.com/special-report/2015/11/23/10-stores-closed-on-thanksgiving-2/

#152 my house is my friend on 11.26.15 at 12:58 am

Jim Willie, who has a pretty good track record for economic predictions, says no way will the fed raise rates, as that will cause the bond and stock market to crash. He also says oil will go down to $30 and cause the banks to crater due to their accumulation of hedges of oil at $100.

#153 My 50 cents on 11.26.15 at 1:02 am

“The last time a rate hike occurred was when they were bumpy teens listening to 50 Cent []”

Coincidentally, that will also be the value of our Canadian dollar to the US dollar next year.

#154 OXI in GREECE on 11.26.15 at 1:03 am

Sorry…wrong link about Mc Jobs being lost. Here is the correct link about the economy not booming as more McJobs are being lost than created……

http://www.techly.com.au/2015/10/26/downsize-me-for-the-first-time-in-history-mcdonalds-are-closing-more-stores-than-they-open/

#155 ARP on 11.26.15 at 1:05 am

Even the CBC talking about “inching” up mortgage rates.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/mortgage-rates-bond-market-1.3336615

A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point, so a 10-point hike is the equivalent of a mortgage rate going from 2.55 per cent to 2.65.

That would move the payment on a 25-year mortgage for $400,000 from $1,800 a month to $1,820 — not a large number in absolute terms but a psychological shock to mortgage holders who had perhaps gotten used to cheaper and cheaper borrowing for the last half-decade.

#156 Nagraj on 11.26.15 at 1:30 am

the photo:

Sadhu Gartoji is a swami.

He wasn’t always such.
And his two dogs had Biblical names (so did his cat, Lucifer).

But one fine day in a big airport (on his way to Damascus) he was chatted up and sort of “transported” by Hairy Krishna types (who aren’t at all hairy because they shave their hair off). So he kinda syncretized their saffron words (and misheard) – and NOW, back home, he has a turban and a crystal ball ‘n’ all, and the two canines are called Krishna and Karma. (The cat’s new name is Kali.)

[Yas kin all figger out why I didn’t tell yas the dogs’ original names, eh?]

Anyhow, whereas prior to his confused conversion Gartoji would invoke heavenly angels and hellish demons, now he just stares fervidly into his crystal ball – and as the mists slowly clear he sees the very face of Janet Yellen, smiling and nodding, smiling and nodding.

Do NOT, dear reader, dismiss Gartoji’s visionary abilites. (In a previous life he was Cassandra, but, as you know, Apollo spat in her mouth.)

When you enter one of Gartoji’s darkling tents (and aint knocked out by all the the frangipani incense) after various namaste-like obeisances he starts off his consultation with this incantation:

“Moses supposes his toeses are roses,
But Moses supposes erroneously,
Moses he knowses his toeses aren’t roses,
As Moses supposes his toeses to be.

Hooptie doodie doodle.”

#157 Great Canadian Bubble Co. on 11.26.15 at 1:41 am

I have to agree with other posters on here. Any government in power in Canada will see just how reliant we are on housing now. If the vast majority of homeowners would suffer from a correction, there is a lot Justin et al. can do to prevent or soften it. 40 year mortgages, lower rates, RRSP grabs for down-payments, etc.

We have really become a one-trick-pony economy. The US had a lot of other sectors to help pull it back up. In Canada, without commodities and the FIRE industry, we really have no chance of digging ourselves out. No matter how progressive a Canadian government might seem, there is no way they will allow a major crash on their watch.

#158 Vanecdotal on 11.26.15 at 2:15 am

#123 unemployed rapper :)

Lolz! Just about spat out my Chandon.

#159 DON on 11.26.15 at 2:19 am

#35 omg the original on 11.25.15 at 7:21 pm
VICTORIA REALIST

“I thought I would provide an UPDATE on the Victoria market as it currently stands.”…

” A typical Fairfield bungalow during this time went from $300k to $700k. Since then price growth has been muted. “…

“Furthermore, the activity I have seen in the two areas that I spend most of my time in, Oak Bay and Fairfield, seem to back”
************************
I have no doubt you are correct when it comes to Oak Bay, and Fairfield as they are trendy areas (along the water, cosy/safe neighborhoods and near downtown, University of Victoria and Camosun College).

I also believe that prices are sticky in the other districts that comprise the Greater Victoria Area. But the farther you move away from downtown, the more priced reduced you will see. Regardless, prices are sill sticky, and so are rents (rents seem to be slowly normalizing, there are now several landlords living in the basement or up stairs and renting out the other floor – increasing supply of rentals).

Lots of fly out and fly ins returning to Victoria also. The economic fallout from Alberta is slowly being felt. As Garth often reminds us. Prices are sticky at first when they are on the way down, but then momentum takes hold.

Last week a friend told me he lost a bidding war, in Victoria. Realtor told him that it was someone from Vancouver. Friend (younger) told me he was worried about people from Vancouver selling and buying in Victoria and pricing him out. I said Victoria is known as a retirement destination. But he was worried about the foreigners who couldn’t afford to buy in Van and were now looking to buy in Victoria. I told him to question what his realtor was telling him. Fear and greed sell commissions. Real estate is no longer the chat at the job site.

#160 Chris in Nanaimo on 11.26.15 at 2:22 am

#97 Leo Trollstoy “The wall for women is actually closer to 45.”

My impression is that’s it around early 30’s, mainly because thats the time many women realise a) their Peek phyiscal attractiveness is 20-30, its all downhill after that, and b) the guys they are going after at 30, can actually pull women 10 years younger if they know what they are doing.

But what do I know, ive been married 21 years. I actually follow Athol Kays red pill interpretation to marriage. Made a huge difference to me after i discovered it and ‘swallowed’ what was a very bitter red pill. His stuff is gold, that guy has saved a lot of marriages. Its more a ‘Captain/First officer’ Husband/wife model, that i guess Feminists would probably label a form of Patriarchy…

I don’t care…it works.

#161 DON on 11.26.15 at 2:40 am

#135 Predictions2015! on 11.26.15 at 12:03 am
So far 2015 is turning out to be one hell of a roller coaster year!

The FOMC meeting this December will be the last interest rate decision for 2015. With so much US Fed talk of raising the interest rates in 2015, their inaction of actually raising the interest rate by only up to 0.25% throughout this year reveals just how weak the US recovery truly is.

Given the US Fed’s failure to raise interest rates throughout the majority of 2015, why would they raise the interest rate in December?

They’re not.

Just wait and you’ll see what I mean.
************************************

I see the logic. Have you factored in egos and perception to the rest of the world?

#162 Vanecdotal on 11.26.15 at 2:50 am

Some White Rock observations: Builder HAM “farming” not going well. Multi-million $ luxury SFH flips continue piling up. Some overwintering (again) on market, others de-listed until Spring and empty, especially new luxury homes on tiny lots not getting much love. There are a couple new builds drifting down close to the magic CMHC financeable $1 million mark, never lived in. This is a first in recent memory.

Older well maintained SFHs priced over $1 million also stale and lots of supply. If downsizers want more than lot value their houses appear to sit on the market as they chase it down. There are advertorials in the local rag by realtors advising sellers to just fluff the house, paint, declutter, but no major renos, don’t spend much money trying to sell. Rather telling who the buy side is. (builders).

Otoh, , $2 million range tells quite the tale. Interesting times.

#163 cynically on 11.26.15 at 2:51 am

#33 BrokeDick – well the Wong side of town is definitely West Van
—————————————————— and Kerrisdale, Shaughnessy, the University lands and downtown waterfront!

#164 Vanecdotal on 11.26.15 at 2:52 am

Whoops cut & paste weirdness, to continue from prev. post…

Otoh, , $2 million range tells quite the tale. Interesting times.

#165 Vanecdotal on 11.26.15 at 2:56 am

Hmm, website gremlins eating text. Was trying to say a quick MLS search in the > $2 million range for White Rock / South Surrey estates tells an interesting tale. Lots of open houses in recent weeks too. In November.

#166 Canadian Rupee on 11.26.15 at 3:01 am

G…I know you hate the idea of acknowledging HAM….but don’t you consider ‘the ham effect’ if rates did scare the locals away? After all it isn’t locals bidding a million over ask…it’s 21 year old UBC students with parents in China doing the buying….unaffected by rates. So…if locals are out of the market…doesn’t that let the stronger Yuan holders the ability to swoop in and carrion off the stock they don’t already own…without interference from the pesky local buyer?

#167 Vanecdotal on 11.26.15 at 3:15 am

Other observations, right after the first BOC rate cut in early Spring, a flurry of SFHs at the highest end of the market sold within a few weeks. Most on large lots with views, and/or waterfront out of the floodplain.

Also of note, builders still buying sfh teardowns even now (i.e. otherwise decent starter homes) if < $ 1 million. Risk on!

#168 waiting on the westcoast on 11.26.15 at 4:16 am

Methinks Karma’s a bitch. — Garth

Late getting on page today and was hoping I could post that line! :-(

Canada was fortunate that the commodity cycle spun up during the gfc to save the housing market. China isn’t buying our products this time…. It will be a tougher time for us (especially in Van and TO).

I am live from Santiago, Chile (check out the lake district if you come – similar to BC) and now heading to BA for a few days to relax. Then off to Uruguay to satisfy my wife’s land lust by checking out farmland.

Interesting pricing in Uruguay… Raw farmland reasonably close to Montevideo range in price from 1 to 12k per acre. I saw a property online that was 160 acres with 5000 olive trees and two homes for US$880k (and that is the price for foreigners).

Hmm – house in East Van or farm operation throwing off US$80k per year with better weather (similar to San Diego).

#169 TheAwakenedOne on 11.26.15 at 4:35 am

I wonder what’s going through Stevie’s head these days? Karma?

I’d say: definitely, Karma is a Big Bad Bitch! :O) (in the photo only, of course, non sequitur to the Emperor’s reign of fear & secrecy… chopping our vets and public servants)

#170 Island Renter on 11.26.15 at 6:42 am

Rates won’t matter anymore; the housing crash Canada’s waited for is already doing a fine job in Fort McMurray
The average house in Fort McMurray has lost $117,000 or 20% of its in value

http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/the-average-house-in-fort-mcmurray-has-lost-117000-or-20-of-its-in-value-in-one-year

Dream again of seeing the Feds rise rated when the US isn’t looking so great according to many of my family memebers living in the States. You’ll have to wait again till March to be right on this Garth!

#171 Victor V on 11.26.15 at 7:55 am

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/news/economy/debt-load-has-many-canadians-living-on-the-edge-with-high-housing-prices-largely-to-blame-report&pubdate=2015-11-26

Canadians households have become so financially stretched and hooked on debt to get by that, in just the past year, more than a third of us have found ourselves covering expenses by running up credit lines or credit cards, or even selling off investments and hitting up family members for much-needed cash.

That’s according to a new Manulife Bank survey, which also found that 14 per cent of those already stuck in a hole of debt have had to turn to more desperate measures in the past year — liquidating portions of their RRSPs or turning to high-interest payday lenders.

“It does appear there are a lot of people living on the edge,” said Rick Lunny, chief executive of Manulife Bank. And with the possibility of interest rate hikes, after years of historically cheap borrowing costs, there may soon be more people having to resort to more desperate measures.

#172 DG on 11.26.15 at 8:30 am

#136 Larry Laffer on 11.26.15 at 12:03 am

Have a scotch

I definitely would, but sadly my bottle of Lagavulin 16 years has been sitting empty for a while. Anybody care to suggest me a worthy successor?

A few of my favorites are Glendronach and Glenlivit are both wonderful, but don’t pass up the opportunity to taste some Irish whisky. Top of the list for me is Red Breast. Yum!

#173 Tom Jones on 11.26.15 at 9:00 am

If borrowing rates are expected to go up, why aren’t preferred share indexes following? (CPD-T)?

#174 Kalergie on 11.26.15 at 9:03 am

Hi Garth,
I’m very concerned about the US looking at the possibility that a “tremendous” idiot could end up running the most powerful country as of 2016. Too early to tell or shall we get worried?

#175 Kevin on 11.26.15 at 9:04 am

Just signed the papers yesterday to renew my mortgage early. Was due for renewal next July, but I had a feeling rates would have crept up by then. So I ate the penalty ($1,800) and renewed early. 5 year fixed at 2.64%. Also took out $64k in equity to max out the TFSAs.

My siblings assured me rates weren’t going anywhere. Now I look like a genius. :)

#176 2-6-6-6 Allegheny type on 11.26.15 at 9:47 am

The kids are in for a surprise alright!

Having been in the capital markets for far too long, I recall when Ottawa was first compelled to pay over 10% on the long bond – in February 1979 – accompanied by gasps of amazement, only to end up paying something around 15% for thirty-year money a scant two years later. Both times under the wise leadership of T1.

Seeing as T2 wants to blow the budget wide open, bring in carbon taxes and cap’n’trade and all these other items on the lefty wishlist, I wonder how high rates could go in Canada once Janet ‘Yellin’ pulls the pin stateside. All these entitled millennials who voted for T2 ‘cuz he’s ‘hot’ (or cool, take your pick) and currently ensconced in their snazzy condos will not be happy. Not happy at all!

#177 Ronaldo on 11.26.15 at 10:02 am

#143 BS on 11.26.15 at 12:33 am

”Global warming solved!

After bike lanes didn’t work the lefties of Vancouver city council have figured out how to stop global warming.

http://www.straight.com/news/584011/cigarette-style-warning-labels-about-climate-change-may-soon-appear-gas-stations-around

Clearly we need carbon taxes to support such government initiatives.”

It’s all very entertaining isn’t it? One of the biggest tax generating scams going and we keep falling for it.

#178 Ralph Cramdown on 11.26.15 at 10:04 am

#84 omg the original — “Nope 1% will not do much to house prices. As I noted here a couple weeks ago thats $370/m more on a $700k mortgage. People will find the money for that without question.”

Remedial Economics for Morons, Lesson 3

It is true that in the short term, most households can find an extra few hundred dollars a month to service a higher mortgage. But they generally do that by spending less on other things (entertainment, vacations, what have you). Since one household’s spending is another household’s income, and since the owners of bank shares and bonds have a lower marginal propensity to spend than the general population, higher mortgage interest rates shrinks spending in the rest of the economy. Since consumer spending is a majority of our economy, there is a strong self-reinforcing feedback mechanism to lower consumer spending.

Most households will find the extra few hundred, one way or another, initially. Some won’t, and others will find their income shrinking because their customers, facing higher mortgage interest costs, had to cut back elsewhere.

#179 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.26.15 at 10:18 am

87 Smoking Man on 11.25.15 at 9:31 pm
Well my sober new life has had a set back…
At Seneca on a wed night, no one is perfect.
But I realized all the shit Hemingway, and Hunter S Thompson where saying, like write drunk , stoned ,edit sobar is bull shit.
They wanted to eliminate competition…. no one can fool a Smoking Man.
I write way better sobar.. however, you get great ideas being pissed out of your mind.. I’m working on it.
New approach, rather than talking to yourself when you are about to fall into perfectly set table cloth tables.
Talk to your phone, hit the record button….
Abstain from drink for a couple of days, then play it back. Your head is not in a fuzz, , pick out the best bits from that journey and you will finally finish that fking book….
I got this now…
____________________________________________
Smoking Man you do realize that both Hunter S Thompson and Earnest Hemingway both had mental issues, used alcohol and in Hunters case drugs heavily. Then after the apex of their careers committed suicide. I would advise not finishing the book.

#180 Julia on 11.26.15 at 10:19 am

#171 Victor V

Interesting article but not that surprising. It’s often a wonder how people “afford” the fancy houses, the cars, vacations and latest gadgets. They can’t, they just pretend to.

What makes me shake my head is the statement that “the blame, he said, appears in part to belong to the high price of houses in Canada’s major markets”. Umm. I think the blame is entirely on consumers who make the decisions to buy and overextend themselves isn’t it?

#181 Daisy Mae on 11.26.15 at 10:20 am

The increases will be steady, slow and methodical.” – Garth

————————————————

#48: “You don’t know this. Nobody does. What is clear is that we have a fragile economy and that higher interest rates will hurt it.”

************************

Yes, Garth does know. As do many of us who have experienced the ups and downs over the years. The pendulum swings…and rates will rise. Guaranteed.

#182 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.26.15 at 10:25 am

#172 DG on 11.26.15 at 8:30 am

#136 Larry Laffer on 11.26.15 at 12:03 am

Have a scotch

I definitely would, but sadly my bottle of Lagavulin 16 years has been sitting empty for a while. Anybody care to suggest me a worthy successor?

A few of my favorites are Glendronach and Glenlivit are both wonderful, but don’t pass up the opportunity to taste some Irish whisky. Top of the list for me is Red Breast. Yum!
__________________________________________
Any good single malt is OK by me. My children gave me a bottle of Dalmore 40 Year Old Single Highland Malt Scotch for my birthday several years ago. Only opened once a year for a dram or two. My wife is Irish and yes their single malts are just as good as any other!

#183 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.26.15 at 10:32 am

#78 Smoking Man on 11.25.15 at 9:03 pm

#68 Wussmode on 11.25.15 at 8:47 pm
I know you’re a cocky guy Garth and that is rather entertaining, but face it that no one really knows what’s going to happen next month with rates or what that will cause. Expect the unexpected.
….

You’re new? Otherwise you would know someone around here knows what will happen next month.
Next year, next 50 years..

Do you even know what a nectonite is?
___________________________________________
Isn’t a nectonite a small perianal abscess?

#184 ryan on 11.26.15 at 10:32 am

Justin Case: The Liberals will not allow housing to come down and rip our faltering economy apart. So, next year, when the CAD will be 60 cents to the USD, they will reinstate 40-year mortgages and zero downpayments. What other option do they have?

They have used up all the available tools they have at their disposal.
interest rate is already very low, home ownership rate is sky high, mass unemployment and layoffs, sky high house prices, the media is now printing some truth as to the credit and housing situation especially in Alberta. People are stretched to the limit and so are the governments of all levels and including CMHC. I think banks are aware of the dire financial situation and are tightening loan requirements for non cmhc applicants. Layoffs are almost an everyday occurance these days. I am sure even the most unaware people are starting to see the grim reality

#185 noel on 11.26.15 at 10:33 am

74% of economists surveyed on Bloomberg =/= 74% chance of a hike.

90% of economists surveyed earlier this year thought there would be a hike in September.

Almost 100% of economists have been predicting rate hikes 3 meetings down the road for the last 5 years.

They are not good at predicting FOMC actions.

But this time its different?

#186 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.26.15 at 10:38 am

Well, in three weeks we’ll know. But I wouldn’t bet against the inevitable. Look where it got Stephen Harper.
_____________________________________________
Well perhaps Mr Harper did get the better deal, hes out Garth? Now Junior has what he and his crony Liberals wanted “POWER”. Now that they have all of that power what are they going to do with it! Oops “someone hasn’t payed the power bill” OK who turned of the lights! They can’t come after us as everyone will be living in van, down by the river under a bridge soon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3nhgfjrKi0o

#187 Spectacle on 11.26.15 at 11:01 am

#4 bdy sktrn on 11.25.15 at 6:26 pm
money will remain cheap for a while yet. just a sliver less cheap, but still cheap.
——————————–

Um……so is Fentanyl !

#188 LL on 11.26.15 at 11:03 am

#12 Stan

…”I will bet you a silver ounce they dont raise rates!”..

And check, they will have a good reason not to rise IR (as usual).

#189 Spectacle on 11.26.15 at 11:12 am

#20 Broke Dick on 11.25.15 at 6:58 pm
The Fed will go maybe five or seven times before it pauses, with the ultimate goal of adding about 2% to the cost of borrowing over the next twenty or thirty months.

That doesn’t sound like a lot – until you realize it could double mortgages.
============================
Almost double mortgages or almost double mortgage rates. Big Difference.
————————— but wait…—————
At this point in history your right on both rates and mortgage double. That is say from 2% to 4%, mortgages double in monthly payment of interest .

Next double would theoretically be 4% – to 8% ( not going to happen!) , a too massive doubling. As hon Turner and others on here specify, rates will soon nearly double, then only Point ticks up say 4% to 4.5% ( never a doubling again).

Strange math, but crippling to the recent property virgins. Enter sound of spine breaking body hit……….a second barista job won’t begin to help then.

#190 LL on 11.26.15 at 11:26 am

http://watchdog.org/245367/fed-didnt-wont-raise-rates/

“Why the Fed didn’t and won’t raise rates.”

#191 mishuko on 11.26.15 at 11:27 am

work life balance… lol that’s a good one Garth!

Quote from the interwebs fits perfectly

You don’t make a $1m salary on a minimum wage work ethic.

#192 Fuzzy Camel on 11.26.15 at 11:37 am

If rates rise, it will cause a lot of problems.

The third world is a awash in US debt, as the dollar strengthens against their currencies the debt is harder to repay, couple that with rising rates we might see developing nations default en mass.

Canada will have to follow suit, or our currency will get crushed, more so.

This is why I doubt they’ll raise rates on their own, something will force the US to raise rates.

#193 NorthOf49 on 11.26.15 at 11:38 am

A few more full-time jobs whittled away in Hamilton-Niagara.

http://www.thespec.com/news-story/6134692-maple-leaf-foods-cutting-64-salaried-jobs/

http://www.thespec.com/news-story/6134574-lack-of-orders-shutters-powerblades-in-welland/

Housing sales in the Hammer still blazing away though.

http://www.thespec.com/news-story/6086433-real-estate-market-continues-hectic-pace/

Shakin’ my head…

#194 Doug in London on 11.26.15 at 11:41 am

@MF, post #69:
Wrong, I am a generation X, 55 years old and I don’t have ANY BITTERNESS AT ALL about missing this run up in house prices. Instead of buying a house I’ve been investing in stocks, ETFs, REITs, and other good stuff which not only has paid dividends over the years but also much of it has had good capital appreciation. Over the years I’ve taken some generous profits also. All the while I’ve had mobility by not being stuck with a ball and chain house. Looking for some much better deals than a house out there? Some of these deals include pipeline companies like ENB, PPL, or TRP. Other deals include HNY, CPD, XPF, and STWD-NY. That’s nothing to be bitter about.

@Tom Jones, post #173:
That means CPD is still on sale now. Most people still don’t believe rates will go up, but if or rather when they do CPD will go up also. The three things you need for successful investing are patience, patience, and patience.

#195 The Other Chris on 11.26.15 at 12:09 pm

@178 Ralph Cramdown on 11.26.15 at 10:04 am

In your first economics for morons lesson, you claimed that higher taxes didn’t affect the economy at all, because although consumers have less money, that tax money just goes to government, would just turn around and spend that money on government worker salaries and things.

Now you’re claiming that higher mortgage rates will affect the economy, because consumers have less money to spend. But using your same reasoning, doesn’t that additional mortgage money go to the banks, who turn around and spend it on bank worker salaries or pay it out as dividends?

Seems inconsistent.

#196 Mike in Edm on 11.26.15 at 12:09 pm

I’ll just leave this here…
http://www.climatechangedispatch.com/images/stories/cartoons/cartoon_china_carbon_output.jpg

#197 Mark on 11.26.15 at 12:33 pm

What’s happening here was predicted by me many times. Mortgage rates are rising. Not on account of the bond market or interest rates rising. But merely on account of houses (and consumers) being viewed as a riskier asset class.

Expect more of the same. Even if policy rates remain flat, or, as I predict, are cut in the future down to zero to fight the deflation and currency strength associated with the housing collapse.

Wrong again. Rates are not rising because of risk, since CMHC wipes away lender risk. The only catalyst is the general rate environment. — Garth

#198 Sideshow Rob on 11.26.15 at 12:39 pm

“Jim Willie, who has a pretty good track record for economic predictions, says no way will the fed raise rates, as that will cause the bond and stock market to crash. He also says oil will go down to $30 and cause the banks to crater due to their accumulation of hedges of oil at $100.”

Good track record??? Jim Willie’s record is completely unblemished by success. He has been calling for the imminent bankruptcy of Deutsche Bank for the past 6 years. As well as the imminent blast off of gold and collapse of the US dollar and stock market. Did I also mention a complete collapse of the entire world banking system due to derivatives. Don’t get him started on the whole Rothschild boogy man thing either.
A man could have made a fortune by reading his stuff and doing the opposite of his recommendations. Who knows? He could be right this time. Blind squirrels and all.

#199 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.26.15 at 12:48 pm

Its 80 degrees here today and it is so different in the Bahamas right now for property. People here don’t see the crash coming or do they care about it. After many years of robust sales, fuelled mostly by wealthy American and European second-home shoppers, the 2008 financial crisis is merely a memory now. Real estate values have again spiked for the much loved trophy property across much of this Caribbean island nation. I’m not sure if I’m in on this craziness. Of course last night we met a very wealth European person who is all in and just bought an island for $30M.

#200 OXI in GREECE on 11.26.15 at 1:00 pm

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/11/25/climate-change-canada-skiing_n_8650098.html

These global warming bozos are just going nuts trying to convince the world of this BS…..

We had RECORD SNOW and RECORD early season opening this year. All the mountains opened a week ago. Its below zero right now…..on the west coast. Its the coldest it has been in like…..forever….

#201 Ralph Cramdown on 11.26.15 at 1:09 pm

#195 The Other Chris — “Now you’re claiming that higher mortgage rates will affect the economy, because consumers have less money to spend. But using your same reasoning, doesn’t that additional mortgage money go to the banks, who turn around and spend it on bank worker salaries or pay it out as dividends?”

Governments spend all the money that they collect in taxes (and then some). But typical people who own bank stock most certainly don’t spend all their dividends (I certainly don’t, nor am I planning on dying broke. But I’m only small fry). When we say that the richest are getting richer, and own a greater and greater share of all the world’s wealth, this is one of the mechanisms making it happen.

As to bank employee pay, the big US investment banks have been described as Marxist Paradises for the lavish amounts they spend on employee compensation. Goldman Sachs paid 36.8% of revenues in employee compensation last year. TD Bank paid out a more miserly 33.0%. Much of this undoubtedly goes to senior management, who likely spend considerably less than they earn. I wouldn’t expect branch level employees to see much of a pay bump if banks’ net interest margins improve.

#202 Bottoms_Up on 11.26.15 at 1:09 pm

#178 Ralph Cramdown on 11.26.15 at 10:04 am
—————————————————-
Telecoms are a good example. People are cutting cable/home phone to save $50-100 per month. No wonder Bell is planning layoffs, gotta maintain the bottom line to keep pleasing shareholders!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/bell-sees-more-cuts-in-latest-round-of-restructuring/article26628127/

#203 Karl hungus on 11.26.15 at 1:13 pm

You talk about US rates moving in lock step with canadian rates but recent history does not agree. Why wasn’t canadian rates at zero for the last decade like the US? They bounce around, went up to 1% after the Great Recession, then back down.

But now that the U.S. is gonna raise, Canada will be right there to follow? Don’t think so. Yes rates will rise in Canada , but it’s gonna be a few years yet

Canadian bond markets and the BoC have followed US rates 93% of the time over the past 25 years. Learn from history. — Garth

#204 young & foolish on 11.26.15 at 1:16 pm

“Most households will find the extra few hundred, one way or another, initially. Some won’t, and others will find their income shrinking because their customers, facing higher mortgage interest costs, had to cut back elsewhere.”

And that is why nobody will escape a downturn. The easy money train has meant record debts levels across corporate America as well. We know the TSX went nowhere this year, will it be the Dow/S&P next year?

#205 Kester on 11.26.15 at 1:19 pm

Garth, I disagree; rates will not increase. Assuming the economy was overheating, a rate increase would be in order. I believe they have manipulated the data, changed the method used to calculate inflation and other metrics in order to keep this Ponzi scheme going. There is so little liquidity in the markets, an increase will cause trading to shrivel up. Assuming the Fed does not raise rates in a few weeks, will you admit that even you are beginning to lose confidence?

#206 Toronto_CA on 11.26.15 at 1:29 pm

This is funny people saying the government won’t allow a housing crash to ruin the economy and will do things like re-instate 40 year mortgages and zero down payments to stop it. Classic irony.

#207 MF on 11.26.15 at 1:34 pm

#194 Doug in London on 11.26.15

Read my post again at #69. Gen X and didn’t either buy RE OR invest in the market is screwed. Good for you and your investments.

Btw is 55 gen X?

MF

#208 MF on 11.26.15 at 1:48 pm

#194 Doug in London on 11.26.15 at 11:41

Reit’s like ZRE also are down big time. I figured this was in anticipation of a rate rise? So CPD is down because rates will never rise and ZRE is down because rates are going to rise? Doesn’t make sense.

I think CPD is down because some of the rate resets preferred’s are designed to reset every five years (which means now at our pathetically low rates). This means the next reset is in 5 years (when rates may be higher.) Maybe someone else can clarify this if I am wrong?

MF

#209 Smoking Man on 11.26.15 at 1:54 pm

#199 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.26.15 at 12:48 pm
Its 80 degrees here today and it is so different in the Bahamas right now for property. People here don’t see the crash coming or do they care about it. After many years of robust sales, fuelled mostly by wealthy American and European second-home shoppers, the 2008 financial crisis is merely a memory now. Real estate values have again spiked for the much loved trophy property across much of this Caribbean island nation. I’m not sure if I’m in on this craziness. Of course last night we met a very wealth European person who is all in and just bought an island for $30M.
……………..

Jealous, was to be on a cruse down there this week but had bail, big sales demo.

#210 bdy sktrn on 11.26.15 at 2:06 pm

Btw is 55 gen X?

MF
———————–
i’m old x at 48

55 is young boomer.

sorry doug.

————–
and daaaamn it’s cold in 604.

global freezing my ass off.

i remember back in the old days you could walk around van in a tshirt in nov. therefore imminent planet destruction is upon us.

#211 Ralph Cramdown on 11.26.15 at 2:28 pm

#202 Bottoms_Up — “Telecoms are a good example. People are cutting cable/home phone to save $50-100 per month. No wonder Bell is planning layoffs, gotta maintain the bottom line to keep pleasing shareholders!”

Actually, I think telecoms will be quite safe. They’re pretty much consumer staples at this point. Sure, some people at the margin will be cutting back on services, but if the economy tanks and people can’t afford to go out, they’re going to be watching more TV, not less. Even if you’re willing to live without live sports, you need internet for your Netflix. The alternative wireless carriers don’t seem to be gaining much traction. For reference, over the ten years to today, total returns with dividends reinvested for Verizon are 9.02% compounded per year, and AT&T is at 8.59%.

On a shorter term outlook, BCE and RCI.B are trading really high right now, while Telus is in the doghouse.

#212 kommykim on 11.26.15 at 2:36 pm

Here’s a good example of why you should use a limit order when buying or selling an ETF. Check out Nov 25, 13:46 for XEF:

https://www.google.ca/finance?q=TSE%3AXEF

#213 Russ on 11.26.15 at 2:40 pm

The facial expressions are priceless. Don’t mess with ‘Karma’ — he is definitely a hard case! LOL

Methinks Karma’s a bitch. — Garth
====================

Life’s a bitch.

Karma is what you get!

#214 bdy sktrn on 11.26.15 at 2:41 pm

This rhinoceros horn was auctioned for $228,000 at Maynard’s in Vancouver on Nov. 21.
A 19th century rhinoceros horn was estimated to sell for $20,000 at a recent auction. But a “grand battle” erupted between four Asian bidders and when the smoke cleared, it had sold for $228,000.
——————————–
just a little excess offshore cash sloshing around 604.

http://www.vancouversun.com/health/rhino+horn+sells+small+fortune+vancouver+auction/11544731/story.html

#215 Leo Trollstoy on 11.26.15 at 2:51 pm

#197 Mark on 11.26.15 at 12:33 pm

Nope.

Sorry please try again.

Thanks for playing.

#216 KT on 11.26.15 at 2:52 pm

Garth: Low rates have been a wealth transfer from first time buyers (millennials) to downsizers (some boomers) or sellers (boomers parents). By this logic a rate rise would benefit millenials as a whole, although no doubt there will be a few tears and bankrupcies among the crowd. But with far less capital at risk and a longer time or horizon millenials won’t be nearly as punished as boomers if rates rise.

Also, I want to call shenanigans on this logic:

Housing has risen a lot -> therefore -> avoid it because it will correct

Stocks have risen a lot -> therefore -> this is proof of their desirability as an investment

All assets valued on a discounted cash flow basis would suffer from a hike in interest rates. Including stocks and bonds…

#217 IHCTD9 on 11.26.15 at 3:01 pm

#143 BS on 11.26.15 at 12:33 am
Global warming solved!

After bike lanes didn’t work the lefties of Vancouver city council have figured out how to stop global warming.

http://www.straight.com/news/584011/cigarette-style-warning-labels-about-climate-change-may-soon-appear-gas-stations-around

Clearly we need carbon taxes to support such government initiatives.
___________________________________________

Wow, some bureaucrat found something to do. This will surely cause millions to send their SUV off to the boneyard in favour of a new hybrid econobox, much like the millions who quit smoking after seeing those morbid pictures on their smokes for the first time.

I’m sure this sticker program will budget at 1 billion, and finish up at 3 billion after utterly failing to do a single thing.

#218 turn of the tide on 11.26.15 at 3:16 pm

One of my fave pics so far! Entertaining and informative post!

#219 BillyBob on 11.26.15 at 3:26 pm

I think Gen X is by far the most delusional when it comes to housing. The sad thing is, if you are part of that generation and didn’t either (a) buy real estate when the rest of your demographic did or (b) invested in the stock market smartly the whole time..you are pretty much screwed. I’m willing to wager a large percentage of the whining we hear on here is from Gen X that missed the boat and is very bitter about it.

===================================

Gen X-er here. You can’t generalize like that, some of us took other paths altogether. I ended up taking a job outside of Canada, paid in US dollars, tax-free. It’s worked out, um, somewhat better than my cohorts back home who bought houses. So, neither “screwed” nor bitter. I am fairly certain that most of my high school buddies will not be retiring before 50, as I hope to in the next few years.

What sexist foolishness to say that a woman’s attractiveness peaks before 30. Perhaps this is true in Canada and the US, I dunno. Yes, I do get that there are biological advantages for childbearing at the younger ages. But Ms. BillyBob, who hails from a certain Central European country that invented Pilsner, is 14 years younger than myself and just crossed the big three-oh. Should she choose to move on, she will most certainly not lack for options, I can assure you.

I do know for sure that certain women, usually from a handful of the same places, seem to be incredibly attractive at any age. Try telling an Italian or French woman over 50 or 60 or on that she isn’t still sexy, you’ll just sound like a fool.

Smoking Man has the best plan for the current economic climate in Canada. Leave. Get paid in real money. Put is somewhere safe.

That is all.

#220 Randy Randerson on 11.26.15 at 3:29 pm

#160 Chris in Nanaimo on 11.26.15 at 2:22 am

Interesting source, Athol Kays. When you said you had to swallow the bitter red pill, did you have to re-work the power dynamic within your marriage? As in, take back control from an “equal relationship” to a “captain/first officer” one? How did your wife take it?

I’m interested because when the wife controls the power, she’s usually unwilling to give that up. Not speaking from person experience, but just from observation.

#221 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.26.15 at 3:32 pm

#214 bdy sktrn on 11.26.15 at 2:41 pm
This rhinoceros horn was auctioned for $228,000 at Maynard’s in Vancouver on Nov. 21.
A 19th century rhinoceros horn was estimated to sell for $20,000 at a recent auction. But a “grand battle” erupted between four Asian bidders and when the smoke cleared, it had sold for $228,000.
——————————–
just a little excess offshore cash sloshing around 604.
—————————
Why not spend some chump change on a small accessory for the newly bought Mansion in Point Grey?

#222 IHCTD9 on 11.26.15 at 3:38 pm

#202 Bottoms_Up on 11.26.15 at 1:09 pm
#178 Ralph Cramdown on 11.26.15 at 10:04 am
—————————————————-
Telecoms are a good example. People are cutting cable/home phone to save $50-100 per month. No wonder Bell is planning layoffs, gotta maintain the bottom line to keep pleasing shareholders!

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/bell-sees-more-cuts-in-latest-round-of-restructuring/article26628127/
___________________________________________

I haven’t had Cable TV for years, and it’s easy if you have a good internet connection – same thing happening with land line telephone disappearing with Cell Phone usage and VOIP being the replacement.

It’s an easy decision to make, I can get all the content on the WWW, plus a VOIP phone service for 60.00/month. I suspect this drain will continue until no one has a land line, and cable becomes too expensive for the few remaining folks even interested in a TV package.

In fact, I think I’d be perfectly happy to have no phone at all…

#223 Ralph Cramdown on 11.26.15 at 3:43 pm

May be of interest to some here:

http://www.nationalobserver.com/2015/11/24/news/tawdry-fall-postmedia-newspaper-empire

#224 Retired WI Boomer on 11.26.15 at 3:49 pm

Without regard if FED rates should rise that massive .25% in December. They will be rising at some near term point, and hopefully will continue until they normalize in the 5% area. (MY norm you understand, this is a 64 year old talking not some 30 year old who rarely sees 5% except on their credit card charges).
By the way, I remember a time when the MOST one could charge for credit card interest was 12%.
Few remember those days.
Days when a new home was priced at 2.5 times a guys average gross.
Days when a new “average” automobile was roughly 1/3 of the average wage, but you could buy a model for 1/4.
Days when the spouse, if they worked it was part-time for the ‘extras’ the family desired.
Days when people actually saved ‘up’ for a major purchase like furniture, or special vacation.

Gee, who ever would have thought the early 1970’s were
such ancient history?

By the end of the 1980’s who could ever recognize the place? Much of the financial ‘norms’ had forever changed.

Much to be thankful for even today. The “new paradigms” so much vaunted in the early 1980’s have been relegated to the dustbin of history, where they belong.

No everything new, and improved is really so. Much of the old wisdom still has great stores of value. You are the ultimate judge of what is best for you, just suggest you know the courses of history to help you select those choices well.

We are having a Happy Thanksgiving here, Thankful for both our upstairs, and downstairs neighbors.

#225 Mark on 11.26.15 at 4:18 pm

“Wrong again. Rates are not rising because of risk, since CMHC wipes away lender risk. The only catalyst is the general rate environment. — Garth”

Really Garth? The CMHC wipes away risk completely? There’s no risk that the CMHC will not fully perform on their obligations (ie: that dearest Justin won’t feel like writing multi-billion-dollar cheques to the lenders willy-nilly?) And what about the loans that aren’t CMHC insured?

Besides, the banks themselves aren’t seeing any increase in funding costs. GIC rates haven’t risen. The long-term Canadian bond market and even the short-term bonds are trading at very close to their all-time highs. The cost of equity has increase on account of the poor stock market, but that’s not a huge component. Rising mortgage rates in Canada are almost entirely due to the investor community perceiving additional risk in the asset class. Entirely rational since housing prices have been going down for the past 2 years and appear to be accelerating at the moment downwards. Not because of the threat of rising interest rates or “the bond market”.

Still wrong. Saying it repeatedly adds no weight. — Garth

#226 Spaccone on 11.26.15 at 4:26 pm

Re the TSX, I wouldn’t bet on it but I’m hoping it’s a repeat of late 2004 — not sure what the economic environment was at that time but it seems awfully similar (some of the pattern is at a different angle though).

2004 Daily zoomed out
https://www.tradingview.com/x/xyw5pIfX/

2004 zoomed in
https://www.tradingview.com/x/u625kh2Y/

2015
https://www.tradingview.com/x/fhDli9uo

#227 Freedom First on 11.26.15 at 4:27 pm

Think a government can halt a RE crash from happening? You are wrong. Not only wrong, you have not been paying attention and are ignorant of history, even very recent history. It’s okay, it’s just business. Most people are financially inept and make assumptions based on idiot thinking. Can you accept that?

#228 Nemesis on 11.26.15 at 4:27 pm

#AnAnnualAmericanTradition… #TheDefinitiveHomage… #FreddieFisher&… #TheSchnickelFritzBand…

https://youtu.be/VsnZxfkkoKQ

#229 John W Foster on 11.26.15 at 4:28 pm

#136 Larry Laffer

Lagavulin is one of my favourites (I have a ’79 Distiller’s Edition). For a less peaty taste, try Scapa. Oban is good as well.

#230 Chris in Nanaimo on 11.26.15 at 4:34 pm

#222 Randy Randerson

It’s an interesting dynamic. Feminism wanted ‘equal’ relationships. What actually happens is the woman usually ends up in charge. And this is beaten into guys on their wedding day ‘Happy wife, happy life’, etc…

You see this reflected all the time in media, brow beaten husbands in sitcoms/etc. I see it all the time in reality, e.g. guys getting chewed out by wives, can’t even buy their owns clothes in stores/etc.

Husbands think if they supplicate themselves to their wives they will be happy. In reality it’s the reverse. Their wives subconsciously are repelled by it. Evolution has made it such that females want men who lead, who can be their rock, have their shit together etc, who make decisions…i.e. by their captain. A weak supplicating man is an instant turn off to a woman.

If you check out Athol Kay’s forum’s you will see many wives who are relived they don’t have to make the major decisions any more, that their husbands have finally taken the lead.

I now understand how to apply the correct balance of Alpha and beta characteristics in my marriage to keep my wife attracted to me. I’ve taken charge, my wife is my ‘First Officer’, think Picard/Riker….we consult but ultimately my wife is very happy for me to make all the major decisions, including financial.

Not everyone accepts the red pill in this context, and dismiss out of hand. Athol Kay’s work is really about making yourself a better man, and good things will follow.

As for my wife…she has no idea of any of these concepts. She is just subconsciously reacting to the personal changes I’ve made to myself. Our marriage is the best it’s ever been, both in and out of the bedroom ;-)

#231 Chris in Nanaimo on 11.26.15 at 4:39 pm

#219 Billy Bob.

Not saying there aren’t attractive older woman, but it’s the concept of ‘Sexual market value (SMV)’

Doesn’t matter how attractive a woman is when she’s 50-60-ish..If she’s competing for a same age guy who has his shit together, that guy should easily be able pick up a younger hottie.

This blog is more TFSA than SMV. But it’s still hot. — Garth

#232 IHCTD9 on 11.26.15 at 4:58 pm

#193 NorthOf49 on 11.26.15 at 11:38 am
A few more full-time jobs whittled away in Hamilton-Niagara.

http://www.thespec.com/news-story/6134692-maple-leaf-foods-cutting-64-salaried-jobs/

http://www.thespec.com/news-story/6134574-lack-of-orders-shutters-powerblades-in-welland/

Housing sales in the Hammer still blazing away though.

http://www.thespec.com/news-story/6086433-real-estate-market-continues-hectic-pace/

Shakin’ my head…
____________________________________________

It’s going to catch up with us here in Ontario before too long now. Next year the GM Oshawa question will be answered, USSC, and ESSAR Algoma. There’s 7,600 jobs in serious jeopardy right there in just three companies. I wonder how long before Gerdau in Whitby makes an announcement, they idled their Cambridge plant 2 years ago. They are hitting the news very regularly now, equipment sale auctions are as fast if not faster than ever – companies both closing and downsizing. Some of these closures are companies that are over 100 years old.

For the Lefties on the blog here, take note of the PowerBlades closure. McGuinty tooted loudly about his Green Energy scheme and how it would create thousands of jobs. Dalton sets up the feed-in Tariff scheme – Power Blades pops up out of nowhere, sucks up their share of the tax money the government dumped into the sector, and two years later is out of business.

Power Blades could not survive in the real marketplace. They never would have existed if it were not for taxpayer debt being incurred to pay them whatever it was they were charging (obviously above market rates or they’d still be in business doing private sector work).

This is why I and many others say that the Government can’t “create” jobs. They create debt, and pay the rich corporations with these dollars, and then the lefty tree huggers vote for them (LOL!).

If you are inclined to remember, and watch these Government job “creation” schemes, you will see 99% fail the minute they are forced to compete in the real world.

The rich keep getting richer. These Senvion execs were laughing all the way to the bank.

Remember Lefties, if you voted for the Government to spend on infrastructure, programs, studies, innovation, FILL IN THE BLANK – Remember that Government can’t do any of those things – they just pay the 1%ers with your money to do it for them, and they will do it happily – until the gravy train ends. When the easy money dries up, they usually close up rather than taking a major haircut in private industry having to compete with real corporations. So long jobs, hello debt…

#233 reject on 11.26.15 at 5:02 pm

Who is this old man talking?
http://tdwealthmedia.com/videos/housing-in-canada-mortgage-rates-rising-sooner-than-you-think/

#234 Spaccone on 11.26.15 at 5:05 pm

Scratch that, aside from the higher likelihood of being none of the above you could argue we’re around 1 (maybe more likely?) or 2:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/rdqxdQCx/

#235 Kilby on 11.26.15 at 5:34 pm

#182 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.26.15 at 10:25 am
#172 DG on 11.26.15 at 8:30 am

#136 Larry Laffer on 11.26.15 at 12:03 am

Have a scotch

I definitely would, but sadly my bottle of Lagavulin 16 years has been sitting empty for a while. Anybody care to suggest me a worthy successor?

A few of my favorites are Glendronach and Glenlivit are both wonderful, but don’t pass up the opportunity to taste some Irish whisky. Top of the list for me is Red Breast. Yum!

I have settled on 18 year old Glenlivet as the best “all around” for quality and price. Don’t like the 12 year old anymore and the Western Island scotches are a little too salty for me.

#236 Ralph Cramdown on 11.26.15 at 5:35 pm

#232 IHCTD9 — “Remember Lefties, if you voted for the Government to spend on infrastructure, programs, studies, innovation, FILL IN THE BLANK – Remember that Government can’t do any of those things – they just pay the 1%ers with your money to do it for them, and they will do it happily – until the gravy train ends.”

It’s a sad testament to our education system that people think this way, and are completely shameless in admitting it in public. The Soviet Union went from a rural country full of illiterate serfs in 1917 to a dominant superpower that many western (including American) leaders thought might well conquer the world less than 50 years later, while industrializing and becoming one of the most technologically advanced countries much more rapidly than countries had previously modernized. All with no private sector whatsoever. Ten years after it collapsed in the 1990’s, “everybody” knew it was inevitable, though even the CIA hadn’t seen it coming when it happened. And now, 25 years later, nobody even admits it existed.

That isn’t the only example, merely the most extreme. There’s lots of countries and empires, past and present, who have accomplished great things with a mix of the public and private sector. To think otherwise is to buy into propaganda promulgated by people who are much richer than you are, and still pulling away.

#237 Big Dipper on 11.26.15 at 5:40 pm

# 200 Oxi in Greece

“We had RECORD SNOW and RECORD early season opening this year. All the mountains opened a week ago. Its below zero right now…..on the west coast. Its the coldest it has been in like…..forever….”

——

Does Oxi mean Moron in Greek? Did you actually read the article you linked? Did you comprehend it?
Do you know that 2015 will likely be the warmest year on record?

#238 K on 11.26.15 at 6:03 pm

So, should those of us who don’t own real estate and have invested our money is US stocks and Canadian RRSPs be worried? I’m thinking we might be stuck bailing out those less educated people that bought over-values houses with money they didn’t have. It’s bad enough they are raising tax on income. I don’t mind helping people in a bad situation but I don’t want to help financial idiots.

#239 Leo Trollstoy on 11.26.15 at 6:21 pm

#225 Mark on 11.26.15 at 4:18 pm

You should quit while you’re ahead.

Thanks for playing.

Better luck next time.

#240 Patrick on 11.26.15 at 6:50 pm

#236 Ralph Cramdown on 11.26.15 at 5:35 pm

Yet, they needed a wall to keep people in. If it was so wonderful why the wall? If it was so prosperous why were people so eager to leave? Shouldn’t it have been the opposite. Like people around here falling over themselves for government jobs. These concepts must have some major structural/sustainability problems considering how many times they have failed. Maybe you should try Cuba? or China?

Oh let me guess, you don’t like their “version” of communism. You want the uber wealthy-kind. Utopia of food, cars, health-care, freedom of choice, kind of communism. That’s the version Butts like’s too.

#241 Doug in London on 11.26.15 at 6:52 pm

@MF, post #207 and 208:
I don’t know about ZRE (don’t follow it) but CPD and XPF are down because of low interest rates. They are up from their 52 week low, as some people believe (probably correctly) that in the long run interest rates will go up. If more people really believed rates will rise, CPD and XPF would probably higher. As I said before, these ETFs are ON SALE and it’s a good time to buy them, especially if your portfolio is underweight in them.

As for age 55 being generation X, I recall David Foot, who studies demographics, saying we late boomers are generation X but don’t recall the cutoff birth year. If any generation X members didn’t buy a house, why wouldn’t they invest the money they saved on mortgage payments in the stock market? Throughout the 1990s, 2000s, and last decade there have been some SPECTACULAR SALES (early 1990s, 1994-95, 1998, 2001-03, a BIG one in 2008-09, and 2011), all a good time to get stock market exposure.

#242 BS on 11.26.15 at 6:53 pm

That isn’t the only example, merely the most extreme. There’s lots of countries and empires, past and present, who have accomplished great things with a mix of the public and private sector.

Hilarious. The lefties are using the Soviet Union as their best example of a government that “accomplished great things”. You know that place that was so great people had to be held by force. It was great to produce propaganda but not so much for the people living there.

#243 Nagraj on 11.26.15 at 7:06 pm

#223 RALPH CRAMDOWN

– appreciate the link to that comprehensive article on the (richly deserved) misfortunes of The National Post

#236 RALPH CRAMDOWN

– re the rapid ec development of Russia after 1917: the Trotsky explanation is that compared to other Euro nations moving from absolute monarchy to constitutional and capitalist forms, Russia SKIPPED the intermediate steps: “When backward nations catch up, they catch up all at once.”
Writing later, Arendt points out that totalitarianism in Russia developed concurrently with German totalitarianism.

* * *

The National Post is a reactionary voice, in a country with six more provinces than make sense, an antiquated constitution and voting system, and an MSM with a peculiar jingoist bent: the criticism brought by GT against the “all’s essentially well in Canada” message makes this blog relevant (despite the gentleman’s manifold sins).

#244 Patrick on 11.26.15 at 7:07 pm

#241 Doug in London on 11.26.15 at 6:52 pm
@MF, post #207 and 208:

I came across this article discussing how the Canadian baby boom was different than the US one. Says in Canada it was 1952-1965. Making the peak of the boomers born in 1959. Doug in London, looks like you’re one of the hated boomers.

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/robert-l-brown/canada-baby-boom_b_6478760.html

#245 Ralph Cramdown on 11.26.15 at 7:31 pm

#240 Patrick — “Yet, they needed a wall to keep people in. If it was so wonderful why the wall? If it was so prosperous why were people so eager to leave?”

You are trying to move the goalposts on the argument. I didn’t claim that Soviet communism was a great system, nor even a particularly good system. But it provides the definitive counterexample to people who claim that government can’t accomplish anything. In its time, it accomplished pretty much everything.

Apropos of nothing, and noting that it is fiction, ‘The Americans’ is really good TV, IMHO.

#246 earthboundmisfit on 11.26.15 at 7:35 pm

@235 Kilby….. I was more than just a little pleased with both a 12y Glenmorangie and a 12y Highland Park. Slainte Mhor.

#247 Big Dipper on 11.26.15 at 7:38 pm

“Hilarious. The lefties are using the Soviet Union as their best example of a government that “accomplished great things”

———

Ralph Cramdown merely responded to another Con redneck stating that Govt could do nuttin. He used the Sovjet Union as “an extreme example”.

Ever heard of Sputnik? The Americans crapped themselves when that happened. Turns out “free enterprise” education is worth exactly what you pay for. How about winning WW 2? And no, do not belief the BS that the US won it. Did you know that at the first European free elections in ’46 the communist almost won everywhere?

#248 OXI in GREECE on 11.26.15 at 9:25 pm

#237 Big Dipper on 11.26.15 at 5:40 pm
# 200 Oxi in Greece

“We had RECORD SNOW and RECORD early season opening this year. All the mountains opened a week ago. Its below zero right now…..on the west coast. Its the coldest it has been in like…..forever….”

——

Does Oxi mean Moron in Greek? Did you actually read the article you linked? Did you comprehend it?
Do you know that 2015 will likely be the warmest year on record?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Oh look? A believer…….and they are ALWAYS the ones that call other people names. And always believers in the garbage phony science they are brow beat with….

So sad…..

#249 Garth you are wrong about rates on 11.27.15 at 8:10 am

Rates, mortgage rates will go LOWER. Canada is in need of stimulus… 5yr swaps are 1.20% (fed hike priced in), the banks target margin is 60bps, plenty of room. Bonds will RALLY….

#250 Doug in London on 11.27.15 at 4:47 pm

@Patrick, post #244:
Interesting article, it looks like I’m a late boomer after all. Something Garth has never mentioned but is probably true, if Canada’s baby boom went on longer than in The States, then the baby boom echo generation (also called the millenials) should go on longer and probably that’s been one driver of the housing boom here. That means, based on demographics alone the boom should last longer than in The States, but don’t forget it also means it will end eventually.

While the millenials probably hate me they should like me instead. Why? because, being retired I’ve gotten out of the way and am doing my part to open up a job for one of these unemployed millenials.