Ripples

PUPPY modified copy

Two hundred jobs doesn’t sound like all that many. Unless you live in a town of thirty thousand people, and start thinking about what happens when two hundred families lose their income, stop buying cars and maybe have to sell the house.

Besides, it’s a long ways from the western oil patch to the agrarian hinterland east of Toronto. But that’s where Continental’s Veyance Technologies plant is located, turning out components for the awesome conveyor systems which power northern Alberta’s vast oil sand developments. In fact, this factory employs the third-largest workforce in the region. And soon nobody will work there.

Jamie’s a local real estate agent, shocked at the news. “These are high paying jobs and will show many Ontario people that low oil prices can drastically affect them too if they work for manufacturing geared to the oil sands,” he tells me.

While the company is not releasing this news, it is nonetheless seeping out. “Yes, we found out Friday and spoke to Continental,” says the town’s economic development officer. “It is true.  Production will slow down and be complete around July 1, 2016. They are not moving out. They will be closing.”

Also on Friday, StatsCan was releasing the latest manufacturing numbers. Sales tumbled in September with a sharp drop in car-making and anything related to energy – the opposite of what economists had expected. Sales fell in 13 of the 21 industries tracked. This ain’t the greatest news when we have a 75-cent dollar that’s supposed to make our stuff irresistibly attractive to foreigners who have real currency. It also underscores a theme this pathetic blog’s been trying to proffer for a while – the inevitability of oil creep.

Why do we care that Calgary real estate sales have fallen off a cliff or that Canada has but two horny housing markets left? Simple. It’s all about national net worth. So when Shell walks away from a massive new development and leaves $2 billion worth of work buried in the dirt, sending everyone home, it has an impact – local at first, wider later. When we run a monthly trade deficit (as is now routine), it’s no different than you spending more in October than you earned. Not a great long-term strategy.

Alberta lost about 54,000 jobs in the past year. That translates into a lot of families not buying new F150s,  and their employers not ordering replacement conveyor belts. If you think none of this impacts you in downtown Toronto or South Surrey, you’re dreaming. It will.

So, what’s the worst thing that could happen? Instead of the gradual, where-the-hell-are-the-Tums? housing correction that I anticipate, is it possible job loss and rising rates could precipice a run on confidence, and a true bust? One of those has not been seen in Ontario (or BC) for three decades, with the last one bringing average Toronto prices crashing down by 31% over the course of four years. That’s eerily similar to the average 32% plop experienced in the US more recently.

Could history repeat?

You betcha. Looks unlikely right now, but a rerun of the early-90s Canadian crash is possible, given the right combination of factors – like plant closings, job losses, rising debt costs, bigger taxes (Ontario towns will soon be able to levy their own transfer charges) and a general loss of confidence. So what would that mean in a country with record household debt, a 70% home ownership rate and more high-ratio mortgages and real estate leverage than at any time in history? Would it bring CMHC to its knees?

As you know, you can’t purchase a house in Canada with less than 20% down without having to buy mortgage insurance – usually from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, an arm of the feds. The agency insures the lender against default on the part of the borrower (but it’s the borrower who has to foot the premium). So if the market crashes and lots of people walk away from their debts, this could have a major impact on CHMC, which insures a staggering $600 billion in loans.

Agency boss Evan Siddall felt compelled to give a speech on this topic the other day, which should probably scare us. Here is how the industry publication Canadian Mortgage Trends reported it:

CMHC has heavily invested in stress testing its default insurance business, he said. The agency has considered virtually all plausible doomsday scenarios (global deflation, lingering $35 oil, a 9.0-magnitude earthquake in Vancouver, etc.), and even non-plausible ones including a “zombie apocalypse,” Siddall jested. The hypothetical disaster scenario CMHC settled on was a U.S.-style housing bust with a 30% national home price crash and a 500-basis-point surge in joblessness.

“Such an event would result in almost an eight-fold increase in insurance claim losses, from $1.7 billion to $13.2 billion over our five-year planning horizon. Our cumulative net income would go from a $7.5-billion profit to a $2.8-billion loss, again over the five-year planning horizon.”

“Since the government’s fiscal position has benefited from [CMHC’s] historic progress — $15 billion [of profit] over the past decade — it would have to absorb our losses in a stressed scenario…,” he added. But going forward, he hinted that lenders may have to shoulder some of that burden. “…We are exploring ways to share these risks (and profits and losses) more equitably in the financial system.” That could mean lender deductibles or perhaps something else.

Well, there you go. Nothing to see here folks. Keep moving.

The fact is Canada has never has as many high-ratio, high-risk mortgage loans outstanding as it does today. Nor has our subprime mortgage lending sector ever been this large, as people borrow money for downpayments (since CMHC won’t deal with any home over a million). In many ways, the outcome is unknown since it’s fear that drives people into irrational decisions – like walking away from a recourse mortgage. And is CMHC really the right agency to be doing an audit on itself?

Nonetheless, it’s hard to see big numbers of people doing Canadian jingle mail. It’s not in our genes. More likely is stunned citizens hanging on to their homes even when it means eating drywall, watching their equity and net worth diminish monthly, pining for the days when Property Virgins was still on the air.

But this is all conjecture. Unless you live in Bowmanville, of course.

234 comments ↓

#1 Loonie Watcher on 11.18.15 at 6:00 pm

Loonie at .7516! Will fall below .75 (and stay there) soon. We should see .73 or .72 by Xmas!!!

Canadian homeowners have been deluding themselves. You reap what you sow!

#2 pathcontrolmonk on 11.18.15 at 6:00 pm

Clickbait title, I thought it said “Nipples”. How disappointing.

We don’t think like that on this blog. — Garth

#3 gladiator on 11.18.15 at 6:06 pm

We might see jingle mail if people lose jobs and have no way of covering their mortgage payments.

#4 saskatoon on 11.18.15 at 6:08 pm

november 20th:

1000 GM jobs go KABOOM in oshawa.

#5 old gringo on 11.18.15 at 6:12 pm

With all these CDN pipelines “dropping like ducks” in hunting season, could all this takeover talk in the railways be connected?
Oil by rail with a captive audience.
Sounds like a Warren Buffett deal.
Gotta luv it

#6 pinstripe on 11.18.15 at 6:13 pm

what Canadians are seeing today is a result of the harpo policies, and these results will be around for the next 2-3 years.

Anything that Justin does at this point will take several years to be felt.

harpo did claim that he was going to change Canada, and he stuck to his word.

#7 Jimmy on 11.18.15 at 6:14 pm

What, Me Worry?

Mad is still around. What happened to Cracked?

#8 Agent on 11.18.15 at 6:15 pm

Canada will be saved by Justin Trudeau who will re-introduce 40 year mortgages!

Let’s go Canada! We can do this!

#9 MEANWHILE IN FRANCE on 11.18.15 at 6:16 pm

Time to visit.
Time to check out YYC real estate.
Holiday Exchange anyone?

http://theceliachusband.blogspot.com/2012/03/la-maison.html

#10 NoOneWorksInCanada on 11.18.15 at 6:17 pm

Has anyone else noticed how busy the highways and streets are during normal working hours on weekdays?

Very few people in this country work as it is. Everyone is driving around moving stuff around and working on their houses. I guess we don’t need to work – we can all just get rich off our houses (or so we think).

Home depot, Lowes are going to get rocked if the housing musical chairs stops.

#11 Canadian on 11.18.15 at 6:18 pm

Oh my God. Garth – The Doomers have brainwashed you!

#12 Broke Dick on 11.18.15 at 6:18 pm

Hey Freedom First. Have a look. Another confirmed bachelor. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/parenting/new-barbie-commercial-features-a-boy-for-the-firsttime/article27318885/

#13 Bill Gable on 11.18.15 at 6:20 pm

…..”waiter….check please…!!”

Holy cow.

#14 Victoria Real Estate Update on 11.18.15 at 6:22 pm

CANADA’S RIDICULOUSLY HIGH HOUSE PRICES ARE NOT THE “NEW NORM” and HOUSING PRICE CORRECTIONS DON’T HAPPEN SLOWLY

This chart shows what happened with 48 different national housing cycles from around the world over the last several decades (second chart).

The average time it took for these bubbles to deflate was approximately 3 to 6 years.

There was nothing slow about the price corrections in any of these countries. We can safely assume that all of these countries did all they could to prevent a price correction from happening. No country succeeded with that.

The US correction was plotted on that chart. It took about 6 years to happen.

In 2006 realtors probably told Americans that the country’s ridiculously high house prices were the “new norm”. They were, of course, wrong. Canadian realtors who say this will also be proven wrong.

Once a national housing bubble begins to deflate, incomes fall and this pushes house prices down even more. This is what happened in the US.

By 2011, Canada’s housing market was more overvalued than the US at its peak. That was 4 years ago and Canada’s bubble has inflated significantly more since then.

The Economist recently updated their assessment of Canada’s bubbly housing market, saying that Canada’s housing market is currently overvalued by 89% compared to rents and 34% compared to incomes (see chart). Canada’s bubble is significantly bigger than the 2006 US bubble and is, perhaps the biggest the world has seen.

Incomes are likely to fall in Canada as house prices correct. We know that falling house prices have a negative impact on incomes. If we consider that incomes in Canada have stagnated for some time with the income-boosting effect of rising house prices, it seems almost certain that incomes will fall as house prices fall.

Falling incomes in Canada will help push house prices down.

Canada’s coming housing correction will be deep and many Canadian families will be forced to deal with the devastating financial consequences of buying houses at inflated prices.

#15 Retired WI Boomer on 11.18.15 at 6:25 pm

Relax Garth, a little peripheral job loss along with the oil patch is expected. Nothing unusual here. Sand mines here very slow, or idled. When idled, don’t know for how long, but for the foreseeable future (think 1 year +).

Never to worry, Timmie’s, or Mickey D provides part time cover until somebody gets creative. Tough prospects creates the entrepreneur in some of us. The rest, just get on, move on, or fade into history. Nothing new there either.

So, somebody ends up selling the house at a loss, been done before, will be done again. If the can’t sell, maybe they repo’ed that also has been happened before. People seem to forget that lots of people have gone through tough agonizing moments in their lives.

Maybe the young, you get their butt shot at will be a bit more discriminating in the future concerning money, prospects, and debt. Everybody gets to eat on the cheap at least ONCE in a lifetime.

Lighten up.

#16 Broke Dick on 11.18.15 at 6:26 pm

Clickbait title, I thought it said “Nipples”. How disappointing.
We don’t think like that on this blog. — Garth
=============================
Maybe not lately.

#17 Mark on 11.18.15 at 6:28 pm

The CMHC’s logic when it comes to their subprime mortgage insurance operations is rather faulty. They basically take the line of, “it hasn’t happened yet, therefore it won’t happen, and because it won’t happen, it hasn’t happened”.

But as it stands, the CMHC, if it were a private sector institution, likely would only be allowed by the market to leverage itself roughly 5X into the sort of subprime mortgage guarantees it has written. So CMHC is implicitly short $900B / 5X – their current operating net capital — so approximately $150B, give or take.

This shortage of capital is a first order estimate of the sort of support the Crown will be required to give the CMHC as housing prices continue to fall and market confidence in CMHC guaranteed obligations falters.

CMHC has received a favourable audit opinion on its activities and its reserves. However, it is clear by studying the publicly available materials that CMHC has not tested their portfolio for a systemic loss in housing prices. The only tests they appear to have performed have been mostly surrounding uncorrelated scenarios. Basically they can survive a minor flood here and there, but a nationwide hurricane of falling prices, as we’re now seeing, would require massive recapitalization of the CMHC.

#18 Dean on 11.18.15 at 6:28 pm

Been listening to many of my compadres out here on the damp coast and the smugness is palpable.

This is going to sideswipe a large number of people who never thought it could happen to them.

#19 JSS on 11.18.15 at 6:28 pm

I’m expecting dividend cuts from the Big six major Canadian banks in the years to come. Maybe not all six banks, but some, and dividend freezes for others. National Bank cut its dividend in the early 90s, and in early 80s – around the same times when housing crashed back then.

Since many Canadian pension funds have invested in common shares of the big-six banks, they will also be negatively affected with dividend cuts to their portfolio.

I never thought this could happen, but eve banks are not immune.

#20 Calgary on 11.18.15 at 6:29 pm

This is a sad depressing state about what is happening in Calgary and the Alberta oil sands.

The resources is there and yet environmental fears prevent extraction of this resource. The pipeline should be built. The material of bitumen is not radioactive should a spill occur. The risks are low and the benefits high.

What happened pre 2005 when oil was less than $50 a barrel? Why was there not panic then? Explain the economics of what happened in the journey of bitumen from 2005 until now.

It’s deeply depressing that highly skilled people are out of work through no fault of their own.

#21 pinstripe on 11.18.15 at 6:29 pm

more good news

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/oil-loonie-wednesday-1.3324568

#22 Dug t on 11.18.15 at 6:32 pm

I work in the recycling industry and recycled goods are the bottom of the commodities market. We are now seeing the Chinese slump affecting markets for materials – bookings are drying up – prices dumping and demand dropping. The largest consumer of recycled cardboard in the world is Nine Dragons – a few days ago they said they were “full” – they have never In all their years ever said they are full. This echoes what has happened with ore, coal and other commodities. The New Year coming is going to mark several years of an economic coma. Canada is heading towards exactly what Garth is mentioning – if you haven’t got a few months wages saved you better start.

#23 Bby604 on 11.18.15 at 6:33 pm

Don’t matter here in van, it’s in a league of it’s own

#24 earthboundmisfit on 11.18.15 at 6:42 pm

GM shedding 1000 jobs in Oshawa day after tomorrow. Dollars to donuts says they’re gone completely in 2017.

#25 Vancouver's Housing Market on 11.18.15 at 6:44 pm

In 2008-09, house prices in Vancouver fell at a rate of 14.2% per year (for 10 months) until interest rates were suddenly slashed from near-normal to emergency levels.

. . . . . Vancouver House Prices. . . . . .
. Percent Below July 2008 Price Level . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. .0%. . .*. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 1%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 2%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 3%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 4%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 6%. . . . . . . . . . . *. . . . . . . . . . . .
– 7%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 8%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 9%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-10%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-11%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-12%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . * . . .
—————————————————————-
. . . . . .July. . . . December. . . . May. . .
. . . . . 2008. . . . . 2008 . . . . . 2009. . .

(source: Teranet’s index)

In 2009, Vancouver’s (crashing?) housing market was rescued by emergency rates.

At that time, similar major price corrections were underway in Victoria, Edmonton and Calgary. These falling markets were also rescued by emergency rates.

What caused these markets to begin falling the way they did?

It wasn’t a big spike in interest rates.

Those who claim that wealthy buyers from China are the reason for Vancouver’s sky-high house prices today can’t say that these buyers were weren’t around before 2009. Therefore, HAM won’t prevent another major price correction from beginning at any time in Vancouver.

The Canadian economy is in the tank. A weak, faltering economy is really bad for house prices.

Canadian 5-year fixed mortgage rates will begin moving higher soon as an indirect result of rising rates in the US. If the Fed doesn’t move at the next opportunity, it will within months. Rates will rise (approximately 1% per year) and 5-year fixed mortgage rates will be higher than 5% within 2 to 3 years.

In Canada first-time buyers must qualify under the 5-year fixed rate or the mortgage qualifying rate (which is even higher).

#26 Freedom First on 11.18.15 at 6:47 pm

Yes. Doing the opposite of the herd at all times always pays huge dividends. It is why wealthy people are in the minority. Garth, the wealthy barber, the millionaire next door, etc., show us how, and that any idiot can do it, and, while maybe not end up being considered wealthy, will do very very well.

70% home ownership. Crippling consumer debt levels in Canada. Low oil prices, accelerating layoffs in the oil and gas industry at all levels. Plant closures, rippling, as Garth said. Say any of this in Alberta, and people look at you with eyes that could kill. I know. I am smart enough to keep my mouth shut, but others are saying the truth. It is like on this Blog, with 70% home ownership, and with everything starting to become visible, even to the idiots, anger is everywhere. Keep a low profile. Perhaps Dorothy is right about Garth.

#27 Leo Trollstoy on 11.18.15 at 6:50 pm

Good luck JT.

And the NDP will be destroyed in Alberta.

#28 Retired WI Boomer on 11.18.15 at 6:59 pm

They expect GOLD to hit new lows. I see cash is still somewhat useful though. Even turkey prices are holding up fair .58 a pound at the local store for your turkey day feast, can’t say you can’t afford to eat well around here.

Didn’t see the market numbers but I suspect we didn’t fall out of bed-again!

Been working on some home spruce up stuff of late. New faucets for the baths, and kitchen. Wife approved! Can’t do better than that now can we? Didn’t even hear her ask about new countertops.

Bottom line, economy looks ok here, not great, not desperate, ‘meh’ like it has been for awhile now. Life goes on no big upsets. Dividends get paid, as do bond yields, stocks not doing much…paid to wait I guess.

#29 Mark on 11.18.15 at 7:02 pm

“GM shedding 1000 jobs in Oshawa day after tomorrow. Dollars to donuts says they’re gone completely in 2017.”

Doesn’t surprise me. The business case for investing in Canadian manufacturing, especially with the spectre of deflation in the future, is very minimal. Manufacturers that invested in the 1990s remember being knee-capped by the strongly rising USD$ of the 2000s, and won’t let themselves be burned like that again.

This is why the BoC will have to, in an environment of falling house prices and a likely rising CAD$, continue to provide extraordinarily accommodative monetary policy.

#30 nerfherder on 11.18.15 at 7:04 pm

#20 Calgary

The answer is simple… The US and China committed to major infrastructure to stave off a world-wide depression. This required raw materials, which Canada benefited from, to the point where the GFC was just a blip for Canada.

The Conservatives were happy to take credit for this happenstance, and we waxed poetic about our solid banking system.

BUT NOW, the difference is that China is done building ghost cities, and the US is focusing on services and technology. Nobody needs our resources.

ON TOP OF THAT, tight and unconventional oil has made our resources less scarce, driving the price down.

There you go… Canada is in for a rough 5+ years.

#31 Transformer Man on 11.18.15 at 7:04 pm

Where do you see the $CAD going Garth? Are we going back to 62 cents eventually?

#32 MSM-Free Zone on 11.18.15 at 7:04 pm

#6 pinstripe on 11.18.15 at 6:13 pm
_________________________

Well stated.

Ironic how Calgarians blindly voted back in the same federal closet guy who put all the country’s eggs in one basket, then dropped the basket.

You’d think they had already learned something from four decades of provincial Conservatives doing the same thing.

#33 Canadian on 11.18.15 at 7:13 pm

#20 Calgary on 11.18.15 at 6:29 pm

Must be a new Southern Albertan? The oilsands didn’t become economically viable until 2005. In High School for me it was the “someday, maybe” pipedream. It really didn’t go crazy until 2006, popped once in 2009, recovered in 2011, and popped again in 2015.

#34 young & foolish on 11.18.15 at 7:14 pm

That’s right … Gloom & Doom for RE, but sunshine and ponies at the Dow and S&P …

#35 Mark on 11.18.15 at 7:16 pm

“strongly rising USD$ of the 2000s”

Oops, meant strongly rising CAD$ of the 2000s. Bleh, and its not even Friday! Sorry everyone!

#36 Ret on 11.18.15 at 7:19 pm

#10 “Has anyone else noticed how busy the highways and streets are during normal working hours on weekdays?”

Yes, absolutely true. We also notice that there is always one car and often two cars in the driveway of most new survey homes at 1:00 pm in the afternoon. No one going to work today? Costco is mobbed, gas stations packed etc. We try to shop in the evening to avoid the chaos.

#37 Mel on 11.18.15 at 7:21 pm

In the end, history repeats. If the Dutch could go crazy about tulips, why Canadians would not follow the herd about housing.

When all of this eventually come to pass, we shall look astonishingly stupid, just like the Dutch who though a tulip will bring them long term wealth. All of it is a pyramid scheme. All pyramid schemes end badly. It is all a matter of time.

#38 Smartalox on 11.18.15 at 7:23 pm

@ NobodyWorksInCanada #10:

I’ve noticed traffic a LOT lighter on my morning commute (Knight St. Bridge to Richmond, BC) since Nov 9th. At first I thought it was because people were taking a week off to include the Remembrance day holiday, but this week has been the same, with traffic in the mornings noticeably reduced.

The effect is less pronounced in the afternoons, but still not as busy as September, by comparison.

It’s like the change that comes when school’s out, and suddenly an entire sector of the economy isn’t commuting anymore.

#39 CanAm on 11.18.15 at 7:30 pm

That plant in Bowmanville has been there over 100 years. It was (formally) Goodyears first plant outside the US.

#40 Bottoms_Up on 11.18.15 at 7:32 pm

The Bowmanville job losses underscores why we need a diversified economy.

In other news, we’re setting record heat temperatures (again), and North Van is mandating global warming stickers on gasoline pumps. Good for them, leading us into the future.

#41 Zorba on 11.18.15 at 7:40 pm

“Cute”indeed ,Garth ! ;)

#42 the Jaguar on 11.18.15 at 7:42 pm

Funny how ‘schadenfreude’ loses its ‘luster’ when the repercussions of Alberta getting a knock out punch begin to drift out to the hinterlands. Look in your rear view mirror and you can still read the headlines about Alberta “leading the nation in jobs”, ” the economic engine of the country”,” not enough temporary foreign workers to fill the need”, all blasting out over the headlines in recent memory. What a difference a year makes. Here at ground zero (Calgary) we know the reality even beyond the headlines that make national newspapers. Word of mouth confirmation of jobs lost that are too small for newspaper headlines, ‘For Rent’ signs everywhere in a city where the squeeze used to be the tightest in the country. And during that period where money was to be made many lived high off the hog. Big SUVs, vacation homes, RV’s, expensive vacations, nannies, housekeepers or cleaners, expensive clothes, weekly visits to the expensive salons to put in a few more highlights. All coming crashing down now. Those long amortizations for refinance options have been gone baby gone for some time. Break out of your 420 and where are you at? The GTA and Van are just muscle cars on a chicken run in Rebel Without A Cause. It’s all a bad movie. Someone might want to write a screenplay and see if they can sell it to Bay Street, but don’t count on it.
As Clint Eastwood once said in the movie Unforgiven…”We’ve all got it coming, kid.”.

#43 RayofLight on 11.18.15 at 7:43 pm

I purchases some “goeasy” (GSY.T) stock on Monday. Here is a brief overview :
“goeasy Ltd., formerly known as easyhome Ltd., is a Canada-based company which is engaged in the provision of goods and financial services to the cash and credit constrained consumers.”
So these guys provide loans to the credit challenged. They are somewhere between a “PayDay“ lender and the banks. I think this will be a very strong growth trend in Canada for the next decade, as the inept financially over leveraged start to realize how totally screwed they are when the banks just smile at them when they ask for more loans.

#44 Panhead on 11.18.15 at 7:47 pm

The early nineties re-set was nothing compared to the early eighties one. It’s happened before – yes – even out here in 604land …

#45 BC Guy on 11.18.15 at 7:48 pm

Yes, I lived through the depression in Ontario in the early 90’s and it was really scary, really ugly. Real estate prices crashed at least 30%, factories shut down and moved to the US and Mexico never to come back, thousands layed off, stores closing left, right and centre, taxes going up. Chretien was PM and Bob Rae was Premier. The Ontario govt went massively into debt, had an extremely hard time selling Bonds, they had to go to Europe in a last ditch desperate attempt to sell Ont. bonds. No thanks was the response. Rae then had to massively cut back spending, hence, “Rae Days”, forcing civil servants to take their vacation, then there was a strike of public sector workers. Chretien croaking that he “liked a low dollar” and would be happy if it was 60 cents US. Bad times.

And it looks like we’re going down again into that black hole of govt, corporate and personal debt, bankruptcies, layoffs, factories shutting down.

This time I’m ready. I’m renting, living frugally, zero debt and just waiting and waiting for real estate prices to crash to back down to earth. I feel sorry for the average family who has trouble paying their mortgage and monthly bills. I don’t feel sorry for the wealthy speculators who bought several houses and vacation properties and drove up the price. Can’t wait for them to throw in the towel and sell.

#46 Ex-Cowtown on 11.18.15 at 7:54 pm

i read on the ticker today that the new Natural Resources Minister has approved the removal of fossil-fuel subsidies. Seeing how actual subsidies were imaginary items invented by the propaganda arm of the eco-nutters, the phase out of these non-real items should prove interesting.

Having said that, the eco-nutters may be referring (as the financial illiterates that they are) to the present ability of the oilpatch to write off a dryhole as an expense in the current year. I heard rumblings that they wanted to rewrite the rules to amortize the dryhole expense over 4 years.

This will have the oil companies book 100% of revenue from successful wells, but allowing them to book only a small portion of the offsetting expense that created that revenue. This change would artificially and misleadingly drives up the revenue and therefore taxes the company would have to pay in the short term, but bankrupt the company in the long term as no one would want to invest because balance sheets look like crap from massive contingent liabilities and huge tax bills.

It’s like taxing Starbucks on 100% of it’s coffee sales, but not allowing them to deduct to cost of coffee beans they sold you today until 4 years later. Bankruptcy under the guise of “paying your fair share”. Because most people don’t understand squat about how an oil company books revenue and expenses and why.

Smart…. very smart…. use tax laws to bankrupt the oilpatch, because low oil prices aren’t doing it fast enough. Justin time for the Paris Climate conference

T2…..because T1 just wasn’t destructive enough.

#47 rk usa on 11.18.15 at 7:59 pm

re: Nonetheless, it’s hard to see big numbers of people doing Canadian jingle mail. It’s not in our genes.

it all depends how far underwater are and whether they see themselves regaining back any equity in a few years,

if not why make a payment on an asset that is in decline for several years

if you are young declare bankruptcy and buy a home for much cheaper seven years from declaration of bankruptcy when you credit is repaired and wiped clean of past bankruptcy

now for the wrinklies, they are screwed in this scenario, they sell cheap if they can and get a trailer for retirement

#48 OXI in GREECE on 11.18.15 at 8:02 pm

#18 Dean on 11.18.15 at 6:28 pm
Been listening to many of my compadres out here on the damp coast and the smugness is palpable.

This is going to sideswipe a large number of people who never thought it could happen to them.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Only if the govt starts enforcing illegal money laundering otherwise……the rise in moldy million dollar mush houses will continue.

#49 TurnerNation on 11.18.15 at 8:03 pm

Post yesterday about police taking cash down south.
There is one way to get it back…or get something.
We are always the targets on the ground.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-man-sues-police-1.3324361

#50 ben on 11.18.15 at 8:05 pm

Check out this for the dictionary definition of “desperate”:

http://www.kijiji.ca/v-maison-a-vendre/ville-de-montreal/last-chance-house-cdn-ndg/1119144384

“last chance” – only an estate agent could think like this.

Think I might take a chance and wait for a rate rise.

#51 Freedom First on 11.18.15 at 8:05 pm

#34 young and foolish

You always sound so unbalanced. I see that Garth has left a number of comments trying to help you. No wonder he gave up.

#52 ALL WARS ARE BANKERS WARS on 11.18.15 at 8:07 pm

Lots of historical accounts… very interesting.

http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/allwarsarebankerwars.php#axzz3rshuBqHz

#53 Freedom First on 11.18.15 at 8:07 pm

#35 Mark

That is okay. No worries. I only read your really short posts nowadays anyways. It’s been a long time.

#54 Sosuke Aizen on 11.18.15 at 8:11 pm

“…it’s hard to see big numbers of people doing Canadian jungle [sic] mail.”

I can’t see “Canadian jungle mail” either, because Canada is too far north to have a jungle. But Canadian jingle mail has high probability.

#55 Harbour on 11.18.15 at 8:15 pm

I would be very cautious about hiring right now

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bob-nardelli–i-would-be-very-cautious-about-hiring-right-now-182512423.html

#56 Nemesis on 11.18.15 at 8:17 pm

#SombreReadingForSeriousDogz…

#JeSuisChien… #InMemoriam:Diesel

[Telegraph] – #JeSuisChien trends after police dog is killed by terrorist during Saint-Denis raid

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/12003554/JeSuisChien-trends-after-police-dog-is-killed-by-terrorist-during-Saint-Denis-raid.html

#SomeHeavyLifting…

[NewStatesman] – Mehdi Hasan: How Islamic is Islamic State?

http://www.newstatesman.com/world-affairs/2015/03/mehdi-hasan-how-islamic-islamic-state

[Atlantic] – What ISIS Really Wants

http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/03/what-isis-really-wants/384980/

#57 paul on 11.18.15 at 8:24 pm

Anybody living in Bowmanville, either works at GM or one of the thousands of auto related industries that supplies GM or they have to drive into Toronto. 1000 jobs gone equals 10000 jobs . damn shame were being sold down the river by the 1% that own this country, ie; JUstin TRUdeau is a millionaire who knows how many times over.

#58 nonplused on 11.18.15 at 8:27 pm

Garth, any comments about Nutley’s plan to implement a $7 billion per year “carbon tax” in Alberta?

Supposedly it will be modeled on the BC carbon tax, but the BC tax is really a tax on Alberta energy companies operating in north east BC and doesn’t generate anywhere near $7 bil a year.

I just don’t see how Alberta can survive another $7 bil a year in taxes right now. It’s on scale with doubling the provincial income tax rate.

#15 Retired WI Boomer

There is a company in California that has developed an automated burger maker. Yup it custom makes the whole burger to order including slicing the tomatoes. We already have the touch screen cash registers making their way into the system (no more complicated technology wise than an iPad, in fact many of them are iPads chained to the table). Automated French fry makers won’t be far behind and you already have to get your own Coke at McDonald’s (but you get a free refill). I am sure automated donut makers are not far behind. So they can raise the minimum wage to $15 dollars if they like but the only employees in the future will be the ones servicing those machines. Everyone else will be trying to crowd into the homeless shelter.

#59 Derek Holton on 11.18.15 at 8:28 pm

Garth, Canadian and U.S. bond yields have fallen from their highs the last 2 weeks.

Canadian and U.S. bond yields are not rising anymore. What is going on, Garth?

The more the economy suffers and declines, the more taxes, fees, higher electricity and energy, food costs from carbon taxes etc. environmental false agenda gets pushed through and go higher by the Liberals Ontario, B.C., Quebec, Federal Team.

The Bank of Canada, ECB, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Peoples Bank of China, Bank of Japan etc. will cry deflation, slow growth, some in recession like Japan is now in and QE, bond buying and stimulus measures meaning debt binge like Trudeau #2 and things will just be a slow, torturous decline.

They will cut interest rates and make negative bond yields there next best friend.

Oh, by the way, since Septemeber-11-2001, interest rates have never recover and they will never will be 8% mortgages and 6.5% U.S., Canada bond yields. Reality bites, doesn’t it!

#60 triplenet on 11.18.15 at 8:29 pm

Actually BC suffered a 25-30% price/value decline between ~1994-2000. True recovery was few years later. Don’t you remember when CMHC held the largest residential listing base in the province? That’s what happened.

#61 JamesA on 11.18.15 at 8:30 pm

Not sure if its old news to everyone, but:

http://www.thestar.com/business/2015/11/06/bell-media-plans-to-cut-380-jobs-in-toronto.html

Bell Media is letting go of 380 people. Not sure if it is indicative of a bigger thing or just random lack luster growth.

I am quite familiar with the US/World sub-prime bubble collapse of 2008. Does anyone have any links for a history of other real estate bubbles bursting (other than the US one of 2008)? I did a tiny bit of googling and only refs to the Australian and UK current un-pricked bubbles.

Going to try to get time to go through:
http://www.amazon.ca/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691152640

but I am curious about behaviour and patterns in the panic etc.

#62 Patrick on 11.18.15 at 8:30 pm

I was hoping that the housing boom could string out for 2 more years. I’d be in a much better place. But with all the layoffs it really isn’t looking good.

Oh well. Sometimes you do better with your back against the wall. As long as you don’t own the walls.

#63 Happyjack on 11.18.15 at 8:33 pm

Attn. all dog lovers:

Here`s a link that will bring a tear to even the most hardened blogger !

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs/good-news/dog-adoption-prank-changes-lives-of-many-184002634.html

Keep Smiling !

#64 spenditall on 11.18.15 at 8:34 pm

The sounds of keys in the mail will rise to a cacophony once people realize that its a rigged B.S. game.

Free money and a ribbon for everyone.

” Oh Lena lets give the bank this anchor back, we need to swim to a better island.”

My wife and I now own 6 houses outright stateside. 32500-64000 per.

A sale is soon on the way for Canada.

I know housing is a commodity.
One that can, if purchased for the right price, transfer wealth through hard times.
Rental income is also a bonus, just imagine a nation full of people that have shit credit (keys sent back) and need a place to live.

Or maybe you canucks are smarter than the folks south .

Great blog I’ve enjoyed for years, thank you Garth and all.

#65 Entrepreneur on 11.18.15 at 8:35 pm

Just ask Christy Clark (a.k.a. LNG Queen) what to do, if she can’t ship by pipeline she will ship by train. As for jobs, contracts are sent out of B.C. Oh, boy, are we in trouble.

Once upon a time humans used and abused resources on the planet earth. They thought it was for their use only. Some became filthy rich. Automation and greed equals more extracted resources. What could go wrong? Earthquake over there, melting higher up, erosions by bare spots are blatantly ignored as part of a whole picture. Did the dinosaurs eat too much to cause an ice age? The Stonehenge in England a clock to keep us in line with the seasons? Methane gas under the permafrost the last warning for us?

Oh, boy, are we in trouble!

#66 Dean on 11.18.15 at 8:36 pm

A Brave Dog Sacrificed Himself In Paris. Now He’s Being Honored In A Special Way.
http://www.pawmygosh.com/diesel-sacrifice/

#67 robert james on 11.18.15 at 8:49 pm

#65 Dean.. Go France Go !!! Rip these Cowards !!!

#68 Freedom First on 11.18.15 at 8:49 pm

#12 Broke Dick

Learn something new every day. I always thought a “Barbie” stood for a “Bimbo”. Broke Dick must = a “Ken”

Thanks. Never thought I would ever learn anything from you.

#69 Rexx Rock on 11.18.15 at 8:51 pm

DELETED (anti-immigrant)

#70 Count Flipalot on 11.18.15 at 8:51 pm

Even if house prices were to diminish 30 % in Vancouver and Toronto…………….. it’s still a rip off.

#71 joblo on 11.18.15 at 8:52 pm

“Alberta lost about 54,000 jobs in the past year. That translates into a lot of families not buying new F150s, and their employers not ordering replacement conveyor belts. If you think none of this impacts you in downtown Toronto or South Surrey, you’re dreaming. It will.”

Everything reverts to the mean, nothing new here, time for creativity or not giving a shit.

There will be a new bubble wait for it.

#72 For those about to flop... on 11.18.15 at 8:58 pm

#129 liquidincalgary on 11.18.15 at 9:00 am
#50 For those about to flop… on 11.17.15 at 9:05 pm

It’s time to stop giving stuff away ( water) for cents on the dollar

================================================

how, and who, is selling canada’s water? it’s not even legal to do so under nafta

please clarify

//////////////////////////////////////////
Hey liquid,I can’t remember all the details but I will give you an example.In an article about 2 months ago I remember Christy Clark stating that the province of b.c sells water to,I believe it was Nestle for 2cents per Million litres which I thought was a stupid joke.
That kind of commerce is laughable.
If anyone else can chime in on this please do as I’m not spending the night on Google.
Peace brothers and the odd sister or two.

#73 Van Isle Renter on 11.18.15 at 9:03 pm

#58 nonplused on 11.18.15 at 8:27 pm
Garth, any comments about Nutley’s plan to implement a $7 billion per year “carbon tax” in Alberta?

Supposedly it will be modeled on the BC carbon tax, but the BC tax is really a tax on Alberta energy companies operating in north east BC and doesn’t generate anywhere near $7 bil a year.

I just don’t see how Alberta can survive another $7 bil a year in taxes right now. It’s on scale with doubling the provincial income tax rate.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Actually, BC’s carbon tax is around 15 cents/liter on all fuel products (sorry I don’t have the exact number, they just keep upping it all the time).

The money, hundreds of millions $$ annually, goes into a black hole administered by unaccountable appointed Greenie Activists. (seriously, it does). This money is then doled out to various green approved and pure projects, such as sending a large contingency of people to wine and dine at teh Climate conference in Paris, or to send David Suzuki on a fact finding mission to Australia in the dead of winter. I’m please that Mr. Suzuki was able to report that yes, there is actually an Australia, but he was perplexed why everyone was not upside down.

Anyone that has a project that questions Man Made Global Warming is automatically blackballed and barred from getting any money from the Carbon Tax fund. Only those pure of thought are allowed access.

When the Auditor General asks the Green Kings what they’re up to with all that cash, they stamp they’re feet, say “None of your business!!!!!” and then call on the their minions in the Green Blob to start a letter writing campaign to get her removed from her post to silence her inquiries (Actually, that did happen, seriously, it did).

Other than being a fabulous way to see the world for the Green Elite, accomplishing absolutely nothing and draining money from schools, hospitals and roads, it works great.

Socialism is the equal sharing of misery. Line up Alberta, open wide and say “MMMM-MMMMM!!!”

#74 paul on 11.18.15 at 9:04 pm

#70 Count Flipalot on 11.18.15 at 8:51 pm

Even if house prices were to diminish 30 % in Vancouver and Toronto…………….. it’s still a rip off
————————————————————-
I take it you don’t own one?

#75 spenditall on 11.18.15 at 9:05 pm

One quick question Garth, at what point of valuation will Canadian housing become a buy? 1/3, 1/4, 1/5, of current valuation?
From greaterfool to great investment……
Time and Tide.

#76 D on 11.18.15 at 9:06 pm

What’s the source for the GM 1000 person layoff in 2 days?

#77 Washed Up Lawyer on 11.18.15 at 9:09 pm

Hon. Maestro said, “If you think none of this impacts you in downtown Toronto or South Surrey, you’re dreaming. It will.”

It already has and will continue to impact every single Canadian. Don’t overlook the fact that corporate and personal income tax resulting from the oil patch contributes more dollars to the federal treasury than the Alberta treasury (yes, Alberta receives royalties in addition to income tax) and the difference in dollars (but not proportion) is significant. If you want a link, ask and I will provide it.

Furthermore, remember that the fly in/fly out work force pay their individual provincial income taxes back home in N.B.,B.C., ONT. etc. and not in Alberta.

I do not know what the significance in the decline of those taxes will be, but it exists and will increase.

#78 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.18.15 at 9:15 pm

@Bottoms Up

So it’s “global warming” again? I thought it was “climate change”.

I wish you would make up yer mind.

#79 Victor V on 11.18.15 at 9:16 pm

http://www.incited.ca/patrick-rocca-falls-toronto-real-estate-market-different/

“And I went away for my anniversary after Thanksgiving, thinking it was going to be a bad time because I’ll be on the phone the whole time. And it ended up that it was very, very quiet that week after Thanksgiving. Interestingly enough, that was the week before the election. Subsequently, the week after the election, it was very quiet as well. And it has picked up a bit in the past few weeks since the election, in terms of the phone calls and the valuations. I’m doing a lot of valuations, and I’m listing properties. But we’re not seeing, in my opinion, from what I’m tracking, and I do track trends, and calls, and website hits, and open houses, etc, we’re not seeing the price fluctuations upwards that we were seeing four or six weeks ago.

And I can give you several examples. One perfect one just happened last evening. I have a house in Davisville that I listed for $979,000 and we got one offer last night and it was under asking. Six weeks ago, I sold that same house for $150,000 over asking.” – Patrick Rocca, Leaside Realtor

#80 Lea on 11.18.15 at 9:17 pm

#14 Victoria Real Estate Update

You are exactly right about realtors (and everybody else) in Los Angeles ~2006. My husband was foaming at the mouth with the majority in the “buy now or buy never” frenzy.

2008-2009 was the precipitous drop period. My neighbors that bought around the corner for US$999,000 sold for $699,000 (maybe even less, that was the listing price). It was a bloodbath and so few saw it coming.

Normally sane people used their homes like piggy banks. They truly believed that prices could only go up so it was fine to take out some equity to buy a tricked out minivan (oxymoron, I know) or a giant tv.

Stay away from the tulips and be rational about investments. I hope more will heed Garth’s advice.

#81 omg the original on 11.18.15 at 9:18 pm

So, what’s the worst thing that could happen? Instead of the gradual, where-the-hell-are-the-Tums? housing correction that I anticipate, is it possible job loss and rising rates could precipice a run on confidence, and a true bust?
————————-

I think what Calgary shows us is that pretty significant job loss is required to get the ball rolling.

But a meaningful increase in rates over the next 18 months – 150 to 250 points could really accelerate things.

As much as some would like to see a rapid and significant correction in Canadian housing they should be careful what they wish for.

The housing wealth effect that the Canadian economy has been coasting on cuts both ways. When you think your house has gone up several hundred thousand dollars you are bit looser with the wallet – even if the gain is just on paper. You go out to eat more, buy more crap for the house, lease a second Lexus, do renos……

But there is a negative wealth effect as well. A 30% correction in say Toronto means EVERYONE that owns a house, whether they bought it last year or 20 years ago feels several hundred thousand dollars poorer.

Which knocks the crap out of an economy as people drastically reduce spending.

It can become a serious spiral down in which businesses suffer and reduce employment which in turn reduces people ability/confidence to buy house.

pretty soon people are not worried about buying a “marked down” house, but are worried about whether they will just have a job.

But I think as GT puts it this is the worst case scenario.

The much more likely correction is a slow decline in housing values in both nominal and real terms over the space of the next decade.

#82 Fishman on 11.18.15 at 9:21 pm

I’ve seen “jingle mail” a couple of times in small town B.C. Hard times caused by main industries closing down & no jobs, no future, & finally no hope. The principles sneak away in the middle of the night because they usually owe money around town by then.
In one particular town of 7000 there were 160 “walk aways.” Of the three financial establishments, the C.U. had 60%, one bank25% & one 15%.
The three got together & put a basement price on every property that they had the paper on. This was quite smart because in these little one horse towns just selling everything to the lowest bidder could have precipitated a waterfall. Thereby driving those still making payments to walk too. They hired full time caretakers to visit each property, cut the lawn, keep heat inside etc. This went on for a few years till the market started coming back & they slowly got rid of their inventory. I know this for a fact because this was my home town & still had family there. I went back for some deals but there were no steals.

#83 Chris on 11.18.15 at 9:22 pm

Bowmanville is not that far away. Have friends that moved there.

#84 Linda on 11.18.15 at 9:22 pm

Our dollar may be low, but we still have higher prices here than in (for instance) the USA. So why would they buy anything they can get for less where they live? Exception seems to be tourist travel – the Canadian tourism sector reported much higher levels of out of country visitors this past summer.

Malls & roads busy? Yes – but what can you expect when so many are now not working? I’d add that I’ve noticed 1) fewer shoppers making purchases; 2) much lower priced offerings by vendors at what is traditionally the time of year when luxury goods are on offer; 3) despite the lower price point of the goods on offer the line up to buy is what I’d call a busy Saturday afternoon lineup at best – certainly not the frenzy I’ve witnessed in previous holiday shopping seasons. I’ve also noticed people with lists who have apparently set a budget & are actually sticking to it. Lots of people talking about ‘having a quiet Christmas this year’ – no parties, no travel abroad & definitely no big blowout gifts. That translates to no need to have hair/makeup/new outfit for the Christmas party or paying for associated costs like cabs/babysitting. All of this makes excellent sense given the current state of the economy but it also explains why Garth is correct when he says the downturn will eventually impact more than the people who were laid off.

#85 omg the original on 11.18.15 at 9:25 pm

triplenet on 11.18.15 at 8:29 pm
Actually BC suffered a 25-30% price/value decline between ~1994-2000. True recovery was few years later. Don’t you remember when CMHC held the largest residential listing base in the province? That’s what happened.
——————————

I think you mean from early to mid 1980s. Home price feel drastically as interest rates spiked, especially in frothy mega-Vancouver.

I am not aware of any correction of that magnitude in BC in the 1990s – Vancouver and Victoria were pretty much stable or slightly increasing during the 1990s.

#86 Capt. Obvious on 11.18.15 at 9:28 pm

I think I’m lucky (or good?) to be working for a multinational that reports in Euros. I’ve never been cheaper to pay. Our products are sold globally and have very little to do with the energy or resources sectors.

#87 Leo Trollstoy on 11.18.15 at 9:28 pm

#64 spenditall on 11.18.15 at 8:34 pm

Nice job. Congrats.

Which state(s)?

#88 omg the original on 11.18.15 at 9:31 pm

JamesA on 11.18.15 at 8:30 pm

I am quite familiar with the US/World sub-prime bubble collapse of 2008. Does anyone have any links for a history of other real estate bubbles bursting (other than the US one of 2008)? I did a tiny bit of googling and only refs to the Australian and UK current un-pricked bubbles.

but I am curious about behaviour and patterns in the panic etc.
————————

“Manias, Panics and Crashes” by Charles Kindleberger

Your local library should have it.

Must read for all us amateur bubble prognosticators.

#89 NoName on 11.18.15 at 9:32 pm

#129 liquidincalgary on 11.18.15 at 9:00 am
#50 For those about to flop… on 11.17.15 at 9:05 pm
#72 For those about to flop… on 11.18.15 at 8:58 pm

I remember reading about this late spring or early summer, and me getting hanged up on that 2.25cad per 1M liters, and flying of the handle bug time…
But when i settled a bit i did a simple math and comparison it not that a big of the deal.

Nestle pumps out 265,000,000L (265mil liters) a year (sound huge) big but in a fast in real life represent only enough water to fill around 100 (~2500m3) olympic size swimming pools, or 650-700 (~375m3) “regulars” size pools.

what real water waste is all those leaky water supply pipes.

“McKaigue is talking about leaky pipes, an issue that’s costing $700 million a year in Ontario alone. A 2009 Residential and Civil Construction Alliance of Ontario study said leaky pipes cost the province 25 per cent of its drinking water—enough to fill 131,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools.”

http://watercanada.net/2012/watertight/

#90 Kilt on 11.18.15 at 9:33 pm

Hey Garth.

What exactly are they doing with the 15 billion in profits. Is this being tucked away as part of their reserves.

Kilt.

#91 Leo Trollstoy on 11.18.15 at 9:33 pm

#51 Freedom First on 11.18.15 at 8:05 pm

At least the name fits.

#92 Cici on 11.18.15 at 9:38 pm

And isn’t Vancouver-based Teck Resources slashing 1,000 positions…

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/teck-cutting-1000-jobs-and-lowering-dividend-to-reduce-expenses/article27330607/

#93 David on 11.18.15 at 9:43 pm

When we run a monthly trade deficit (as is now routine), it’s no different than you spending more in October than you earned.

Indeed, the only mechanism of achieving economic growth is by taking someone else’s via trade surpluses…is this not the lesson?

#94 Mike T. on 11.18.15 at 9:47 pm

I expect a ‘people’s bailout’

and it’ll be a trick

#95 BobC on 11.18.15 at 9:52 pm

Easy fix. Bring in thousands of people from a third world country that can’t speak English. Borrow and give them billions of dollars in welfare. They’ll immediately spend it, the GDP will go up and everybody will say “look! The liberals saved us!”

#96 SWL1976 on 11.18.15 at 9:53 pm

#89 NoName – Why does no one seem to care that their profit margins are insane while we get very little in return???

How can people see this as a fair deal?

Is this really the new normal?

Is the herd really this delusional?

#97 45north on 11.18.15 at 9:58 pm

Agency boss Evan Siddall

Evan Siddall:

https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/corp/about/prme/index.cfm

That could mean lender deductibles or perhaps something else.

lender deductibles! the announcement would sweep across Canada. CMHC could protect itself by tightening requirements and shifting some of risk to the banks but in doing so it would hasten the decline of real estate. These measures would be political. Hugely political.

Why do we care that Calgary real estate sales have fallen off a cliff or that Canada has but two horny housing markets left? Simple. It’s all about national net worth.

Spring in Calgary will be the start of where price declines match sales declines.

#98 tundra pete on 11.18.15 at 10:01 pm

How many times I’ve said this on this pathetic blog. It will be a surprise announcment. The sacrificial lamb beuracrat will be nudged out into the limelight to make the announcement. ” due to unforeseen circumstances, the taxpayer will be required to blah, blah, blah………..you know the rest.

These bank of mom and dad, liar loan, subprimes or whatever you want to call them will no longer be any banks problem, they will now be yours. Half these yahoos are simply gonna walk away from the loan, file bankruptcy and call it a day. Many have no intention of paying a 635,000 dollar mortgage. Are you kiddding me? Why woukd they?

Recall now, CMHC is legislated to protect lenders, not some schmuk who got a pink slip from the conveyor belt line.

#99 Drill Baby Drill on 11.18.15 at 10:09 pm

My cousin is a pipefitter at a process skid fabrication shop in Port Colbourne Ont. They build water treatment skids for the Alberta oil fields he is now out of works and so are 75 others.

#100 pinstripe on 11.18.15 at 10:10 pm

accommodation for the refugees should not be a concern.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/housing-real-estate-sales-economy-calgary-edmonton-1.3324875

#101 Wicked as it seems on 11.18.15 at 10:11 pm

#44 Panhead.

1981 was the mother of them all, I was working for a company that had rental houses everywhere doing maintenance, the crash came fast, within three months Vancouver island was in depression mode for next couple of years. Surviving on soups and looking at the jobs section with not one job advertised. It took 10 years for houses to get back to what people paid…..brutal!

#102 Nagraj on 11.18.15 at 10:11 pm

Looks to me like GT has taken a step closer to VREU’s take on how fast how deep the house price correction.

I myself have never understood why there would be a “soft landing”. With half of working families living basically paycheck to paycheck, higher mortgage payments, higher anything payments, no wage growth to speak of, job insecurity, a youth unemployment and family formation crisis, rising food prices, etc., what’s to keep up what’s known as FINAL DEMAND (such as it is) and prevent a whopping rise in the unemployment rate which would indeed be THE killer for house prices, notwithstanding mortgage modification shenanigans, monetary policy tweaks or shovel-ready ersatz make-work.

#103 Renter's Revenge! on 11.18.15 at 10:18 pm

#94 Mike T.

“I expect a ‘people’s bailout’

and it’ll be a trick”

I expect a “homeowner’s haircut”

and it’ll be the real thing

#104 Mark on 11.18.15 at 10:22 pm

“lender deductibles! the announcement would sweep across Canada. CMHC could protect itself by tightening requirements and shifting some of risk to the banks but in doing so it would hasten the decline of real estate. These measures would be political. Hugely political.”

Any retroactive change to CMHC’s subprime mortgage insurance terms and conditions would likely induce a significant reduction in lending activity almost immediately on account of a loss of market confidence. Even subtle changes or “telegraphed” changes would likely result in an increase in risk premia as applicable to CMHC insured credit.

As I’ve written in previous posts over the years, the chief risk in Canada’s banks is political in nature. With the banks and the CMHC being locked in a sort of Cold War-like “Mutually Assured Destruction” where attacks on the bank’s mortgage assets by the CMHC would lead to a significant reduction of housing lending, and increased distress in CMHC-insured subprime mortgages.

The key for policy makers is to somehow resolve the CMHC without leaving both the CMHC and the Canadian banks as smoking holes in the ground. And this would probably require significant and sweeping economic reform. Or a miracle of an extrernal source of demand on the Canadian economy. A nice gold mining bubble would help things out .

#105 NEVER GIVE UP on 11.18.15 at 10:34 pm

#49 TurnerNation on 11.18.15 at 8:03 pm
Post yesterday about police taking cash down south.
There is one way to get it back…or get something.
We are always the targets on the ground.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-man-sues-police-1.3324361
————————————————————-
Police are simply dangerous to be around.
I counsel my children to stay away from police if at all possible.

Just being near them lowers your life expectancy for that time period.
They have developed a culture of violence and cowardice.

They prefer military style force as opposed to gentle persuasion and intelectual means to doing their jobs.

It is not going to change any time soon so tell you kids to stay away from them. Do not move quickly in their presence and above all call them SIR to stroke their weak egos.

#106 NEVER GIVE UP on 11.18.15 at 10:36 pm

Hey Garth:
You probably notice that some of us are so bored waiting for the real estate correction that we go off on all kinds oif tangents.
Yawwwnnn

#107 Hotdogs from Heaven on 11.18.15 at 10:36 pm

It already has and will continue to impact every single Canadian. Don’t overlook the fact that corporate and personal income tax resulting from the oil patch contributes more dollars to the federal treasury than the Alberta treasury (yes, Alberta receives royalties in addition to income tax) and the difference in dollars (but not proportion) is significant. If you want a link, ask and I will provide it.
——————————————–

And don’t forget the billions of dollars in dividends that have been lost to the millions of Canadian investors with all those huge dividend cuts over the last year.

Lost income also means lost taxes.

#108 Leo Trollstoy on 11.18.15 at 10:42 pm

I knew that IT was booming in Canada, but I had no idea that games play such a big part of the equation.

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/259511/Canadas_game_dev_industry_grows_472_studios_20400_people.php

#109 lee on 11.18.15 at 10:44 pm

I don’t see why all you guys are so happy when you hear about people getting laid off. What could possibly be gained by any of you when there are massive layoffs in Canada?

#110 Timberrrr on 11.18.15 at 10:44 pm

#76 What’s the source for the GM 1000 person layoff in 2 days?

———————-

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/gm-oshawa-workers-worry-more-layoffs-could-lead-to-plant-closure-1.3057698

#111 For those about to flop... on 11.18.15 at 10:47 pm

#96 SWL1976 on 11.18.15 at 9:53 pm
#89 NoName – Why does no one seem to care that their profit margins are insane while we get very little in return???

How can people see this as a fair deal?

Is this really the new normal?

Is the herd really this delusional?

///////////////////////////////////////
I wasn’t going to say anything because the guy vouched for me but go and ask someone in California or Nevada if 260 million litres could help anyone out.

#112 Timberrrr on 11.18.15 at 10:47 pm

#76 What’s the source for the GM 1000 person layoff in 2 days?

———————-

http://windsorstar.com/business/local-business/gm-to-end-chevy-camaro-assembly-in-oshawa-nov-20

#113 Dime a Dozen on 11.18.15 at 10:48 pm

I manage a professional services firm in Downtown Vancouver. We’ve noticed a very large increase in job Project Manager applicants from Alberta. Times are bad for PM’s in Alberta and soon to be BC. Oil isn’t the only glut right now.

#114 common sense on 11.18.15 at 10:58 pm

Sign of the times living in a border town…

On the Canadian side, you can drop a bomb anywhere in town after 7pm and never hurt anyone as NO ONE is out spending money at all.

On the US side, the new growth industry is bottle return outlets offering .5 cents on plastic and metal cans or bottles. At least 20 new outlets spotted in the past 4 months along with new tiny tattoo parlors or coffee spots…

Are we in survival mode yet? Sadly, I think many are getting closer which reminds me of Cuba, where people spend their limited resources on food, saving whatever they can for clothing when they can afford it.

#115 Mark on 11.18.15 at 10:59 pm

“I knew that IT was booming in Canada, but I had no idea that games play such a big part of the equation”

IT isn’t ‘booming’ in Canada by any stretch of the imagination. But game studios everywhere are always on the lookout for reasonably talented people willing to work 16 hour days for minimal pay. It is the quintessential burn and churn industry and jobs a’plenty for those few who fit that particular mold and are willing to sacrifice their youth to make games.

The infographic you point to says it best. Only a $71.3k average salary. Not even enough for home ownership in any of Canada’s major cities.

#116 Smoking Man on 11.18.15 at 11:09 pm

Wow, China getting in on the Isis slaying game.

Poor, God,

NOW that the entire world is going after these savages, where is god going to get all the virgins for a explosive increase in demand , especially in this day and age…in

#117 ben on 11.18.15 at 11:09 pm

Regarding the games industry, bulk of it is in Quebec, mean age 31. $71k not so bad.

They are making something that people want to buy out of nothing and consuming electricity. Surely that is better than Vancouver devaluing CAD by printing a load of it via the banks via land price ramping.

#118 common sense on 11.18.15 at 11:19 pm

Does anyone know a good place to learn to speak Japanese?

As we are likely heading down the same path…

#119 Leo Trollstoy on 11.18.15 at 11:19 pm

I think what is even more amazing about the IT boom is that a single earner in, say, gaming…

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/259511/Canadas_game_dev_industry_grows_472_studios_20400_people.php

Earns as much as the the median Canadian FAMILY income.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/median-family-income-in-canada-is-76-000-statscan-survey-shows-1.1449641

Isn’t that crazy?

And this hasn’t just attracted gaming studios, but Venture Capital as well.

http://www.valuewalk.com/2015/11/canadas-tech-sector/

Canada has definitely turned the corner in technology.

http://techcrunch.com/2015/10/20/canadian-startups-the-entrepreneur-to-moose-ratio-is-narrowing/

Congrats Canada!

#120 Leo Trollstoy on 11.18.15 at 11:20 pm

It’s a good time for commercial realtors in Toronto and Vancouver if they have technology clients.

http://business.financialpost.com/fp-tech-desk/how-the-boom-in-technology-jobs-is-transforming-toronto-and-vancouvers-office-markets

#121 MF on 11.18.15 at 11:25 pm

#105 NEVER GIVE UP on 11.18.15 at 10:34 pm

“They prefer military style force as opposed to gentle persuasion and intelectual means to doing their jobs.”

Since when did gentle persuasion and intellectual means work for a street enforcer of the law?

Police deal with criminals. Some are violent.

There is always someone who has a problem with authority.

MF

#122 Grantmi on 11.18.15 at 11:26 pm

#109 lee on 11.18.15 at 10:44 pm

I don’t see why all you guys are so happy when you hear about people getting laid off. What could possibly be gained by any of you when there are massive layoffs in Canada?>/blockquote>

The dogs will say … VULCHING their primary residence, when they go teets up!!

#123 Min InMission on 11.18.15 at 11:31 pm

We don’t think like that on this blog. — Garth

lol.

#124 Losing Patience on 11.18.15 at 11:36 pm

http://www.creb.com/ is where you can see the massive drop in the average price yoy in Calgary. 2%!

I’m really losing patience as we have been renting for 4 years @ 1125 per month, a 2 br and have 2 children so that we can recover and save back up after we had to sell our place in 2008 just to survive. We rented in BC after that and now rent in Calgary. Now a sfh just around the corner sold for $641K! Places like ours have been fetching around $360K … do the math… renting makes sense. However, my wife is very tired of renting after selling our home so long ago. She wants to move into something bigger but does not want to rent again.

Now, I found out that banks are not foreclosing on delinquents. So, why did we ever sell if we could have just not paid? This is what she is asking. This feels so surreal. Everyone needs to just stop buying and let this thing do what it should. Yet, nobody is forced to sell as banks are letting them off the hook. So most continue to ask ridiculous prices as the pressure is off.

A duplex a few blocks from here for rent has been vacant now for 4 months.

How much longer do need to wait to get a decent home with more than 1 bathroom at a payment close to our rent of $1125 without sinking all of our savings down.

Calgary, come on! Let’s get the show on the road.

Mr. Losing Patience.

#125 Spectacle on 11.18.15 at 11:38 pm

#26 Freedom First on 11.18.15 at 6:47 pm
Yes…………… Perhaps Dorothy is right about Garth.

———————-
Didn’t Dorothy say ” There’s no place like home, there’s no place like home!”

I didn’t recognize Garth in that movie.

#126 Bottoms_Up on 11.18.15 at 11:40 pm

#78 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.18.15 at 9:15 pm
————————————-
Global warming is the overall trend (global average temperature change).

Climate change is what can happen locally (drought etc.) and may even include colder temps., region dependent.

#127 Bottoms_Up on 11.18.15 at 11:42 pm

#75 spenditall on 11.18.15 at 9:05 pm
————————–
Current valuation in Canada is a buy (we live in the greatest nation on earth).

#128 mitigate or deflate on 11.18.15 at 11:45 pm

Garth

This isn’t about scenario management, it’s all about risk management….what are the risk mitigation measures being proposed by cmhc????what is the risk after these measures have been enacted????

#129 Bottoms_Up on 11.18.15 at 11:45 pm

#73 Van Isle Renter on 11.18.15 at 9:03 pm
—————————
If you truly believe what you write, you are always welcome to submit information requests to your provincial government to find out where the money is spent.
Or, you can continue to write about “black holes” here.

#130 Smoking Man on 11.18.15 at 11:46 pm

#115 Mark on 11.18.15 at 10:59 pm
“I knew that IT was booming in Canada, but I had no idea that games play such a big part of the equation”

IT isn’t ‘booming’ in Canada by any stretch of the imagination. But game studios everywhere are always on the lookout for reasonably talented people willing to work 16 hour days for minimal pay. It is the quintessential burn and churn industry and jobs a’plenty for those few who fit that particular mold and are willing to sacrifice their youth to make games.

The infographic you point to says it best. Only a $71.3k average salary. Not even enough for home ownership in any of Canada’s major cities.
……

Your right, commodity, do you not see my brilinace, work from home consulting for a USA corp. Paid in green backs..

It was sporting today when I went to my bank, wire 20 k to Knights Bridge capital…to convert to CAD.

They charge, 0.005 off spot….bank charges 0.02

Shit I do for my wife’s gambling addiction, truth is. My drinking addiction is the route of the problem..

Take her there, my consumption restrictions are open..

Happy wife, happy life..

#131 Sharon Fields on 11.18.15 at 11:46 pm

In the past week I ‘ve noticed a complete ban on anything said about the ongoing foibles of Justin Trudeau. Are you thinking of applying for the Governor Generals job and being a good soldier for the Liberal machine?

The main problem right now with Canada’s economy is the flight of confidence and capital which is directly attributable to the election of an incompetent socialist PM.

Do you think that by silencing all critics Justin will find his feet eventuallY?

I’m so proud when Libs, Cons and Dippers all think I’m unfair. — Garth

#132 Patrick on 11.18.15 at 11:51 pm

Can tomorrows post be on peonies and sunshine? this one is depressing.

#133 Smoking Man on 11.18.15 at 11:57 pm

#126 Bottoms_Up on 11.18.15 at 11:40 pm
#78 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.18.15 at 9:15 pm
————————————-
Global warming is the overall trend (global average temperature change).

Climate change is what can happen locally (drought etc.) and may even include colder temps.
….

Your phycotic beliefs is a direct result of Cultural Marxism. Ak the engineering of the curriculum.

You live in the matrix…your a perfect mark for a tin man..

Google tin man…

#134 NoName on 11.19.15 at 12:11 am

#111 For those about to flop… on 11.18.15 at 10:47 pm

i have my problems to worry about, i don’t care about their margins. what nestle pumps out wont create Aral Sea type disaster, but they do and produce in california, and how they waste water in nevada will.

almond tree

“Mother Jones has owned the almond beat for more than a year now. The magazine has helped us learn that it takes about a gallon of water to grow a single almond

http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2015/04/almonds_in_california_they_use_up_a_lot_of_water_but_they_deserve_a_place.html

niagara falls
us falls 567,811 Liters per second
can falls 2,271,247 liters per second

#135 tundra pete on 11.19.15 at 12:12 am

#124 losing patience.

A little more patience will go a long way. That $1124 a month will soon get you a lot more than you think.

Its not that banks arent foreclosing, it is that there is no limit on it. Once you are so many days delinquent they will take action. In the case of Calgary, it will soon overwhelm banks and so the list will grow. Never forget that the banks will get their money. They are always first. Banks feel sorry for no one. The courts work for the banks as do the government of the day.

Just have your ducks in order. Be ready to pounce. Deals are coming.

#136 triplenet on 11.19.15 at 12:21 am

#85 OMG The Original

Well, if you want you can conduct your first real estate analysis.

#137 NoName on 11.19.15 at 12:21 am

and this

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ov7_q2aKQl8&ab_channel=PaulDirebear

#TimeToSayGoodbye (Andrea Bocelli, Sarah Brightman)

#138 Drill Baby Drill on 11.19.15 at 12:23 am

#131
I know let’s have a piece on Prime Minister Wynne’s triumphant return from her China trade mission.

#139 Smoking Man on 11.19.15 at 12:53 am

#121 MF on 11.18.15 at 11:25 pm
#105 NEVER GIVE UP on 11.18.15 at 10:34 pm

“They prefer military style force as opposed to gentle persuasion and intelectual means to doing their jobs.”

Since when did gentle persuasion and intellectual means work for a street enforcer of the law?

Police deal with criminals. Some are violent.

There is always someone who has a problem with authority.

MF
….

Count me in for someone who has a problem with authority.

Way better than being someone bent over loving conformity.

#140 For those about to flop... on 11.19.15 at 12:53 am

#133 NoName on 11.19.15 at 12:11 am
#111 For those about to flop… on 11.18.15 at 10:47 pm

i have my problems to worry about, i don’t care about their margins. what nestle pumps out wont create Aral Sea type disaster, but they do and produce in california, and how they waste water in nevada will.
///////////////////////////////////////////////
I’m not to sure if you are agreeing with me or arguing with me as I am too tired.
I will make it easy for you. You win ,now I am going to have a glass of cold, clean water and go to bed.

#141 NEVER GIVE UP on 11.19.15 at 1:00 am

#121 MF on 11.18.15 at 11:25 pm
#105 NEVER GIVE UP on 11.18.15 at 10:34 pm

“They prefer military style force as opposed to gentle persuasion and intellectual means to doing their jobs.”

Since when did gentle persuasion and intellectual means work for a street enforcer of the law?
————————————————————-
Look at the records of countries who do not arm the police.
Britain Ireland Norway Iceland New Zealand, Hardly hotbeds of out of control Gunmen.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2015/02/18/5-countries-where-police-officers-do-not-carry-firearms-and-it-works-well/

#142 Retired WI Boomer on 11.19.15 at 1:14 am

#58 Nonplused

You are WAY late on this one. McD’s opened their first automated location (still has a few humans behind the scenes). $15 an hour min wages brings innovation AND unemployment!

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=428987520624998&set=a.304606386396446.1073741831.100005412607053&type=3

#143 John Prine on 11.19.15 at 1:16 am

The main problem right now with Canada’s economy is the flight of confidence and capital which is directly attributable to the election of an incompetent socialist PM.
——————————————————————–

Wow! 2 weeks into the job and even my Conservative neighbours aren’t complaining yet. “Flight of Capital” hasn’t even made “Power in Politics” yet…..

#144 Leo Trollstoy on 11.19.15 at 1:30 am

I’m so proud when Libs, Cons and Dippers all think I’m unfair. — Garth

A significant milestone for sure!

#145 Smoking Man on 11.19.15 at 1:30 am

The irony of “Bottoms_Up” stage name…

Lmao…

I visualize a giant elephant standing behind you..
Good thing the vasaline makes it hurt less..

My goal going forward..introduce you to the love of the penetrating Mo Jo Man.

Vs the Happy bottoms up prostrate tickle…

Al Gore will lose one.. that’s my drunken goal.

#146 Suede on 11.19.15 at 1:50 am

Prices will correct and fall in YVR and Toronto when people lose confidence.

They lose confidence when they get scared their monthly payment will be higher.

They lose confidence when their RRSP’s start dwindling and get scared into selling the house to fund their semi-retirement nest egg.

Remember, boomers will never retire.

They will be in a state of semi-retirement. Partially working to the end of their lives.

They aint like the generation before them that just sat for coffee and lived in homes.

Things are different today, i hear every mother say.

#147 kommykim on 11.19.15 at 1:53 am

RE:

I’m so proud when Libs, Cons and Dippers all think I’m unfair. — Garth

So what type of portfolio of unfairness do you think you have?

Is it balanced with 33% Lib, 33% Con, and 33% NDP?
Or is it a more conservative portfolio with 40% Lib, 50% NDP, and 10% Con?

#148 Victoria Real Estate Update on 11.19.15 at 2:02 am

# 30 nerfherder

It’s interesting that not much is mentioned anywhere about China’s ghost cities. They are absolutely massive and required shocking amounts of resources – plenty of that coming from Canada.

The next 10 years in Canada will be entirely different than the last. This will be become apparent in many areas – jobs, house prices, etc. Those Canadians who took on mortgages at inflated prices will learn the same lessons that Americans learned as their housing bubble deflated.

#149 Entrepreneur on 11.19.15 at 2:04 am

#72 For those about to flop…

“Water-bottling fees to be re-examined, says B.C. Christy Clark” Also read the second to last paragraph “We are not getting…” by opposition NDP Spencer Chandra Herbert.

What really bothers me is due to 218,000 signed a petition so Christy Clark is opening it up. What about “I don’t have a million dollars” which had 10,000 people.

#150 Frank on 11.19.15 at 2:11 am

But game studios everywhere are always on the lookout for reasonably talented people willing to work 16 hour days for minimal pay.

Mark, shut up about IT. You don’t know what you’re talking about. I work in the industry and your knowledge of the working conditions is based off EA stories from 12 years ago.

The average salary is low because that includes artists, modelers, animators etc who are paid much less than engineers.

Please stop talking about something you know nothing about over and over. It discredits everything you say.

#151 Bobs ur uncle on 11.19.15 at 2:38 am

“NOW that the entire world is going after these savages, where is god going to get all the virgins for a explosive increase in demand , especially in this day and age…”

Now *that* was an inspired piece of writing. I think Hunter S would approve.

#152 Freedom First on 11.19.15 at 3:02 am

#124 Losing Patience

You and your wife need help. Garth is trying to help you, but you gotta read his Blog and study the information for it to work.

On second thought, find someone to do your thinking for you. You’ll both be better off.

#153 family beagle on 11.19.15 at 3:13 am

#116 Smoking Man on 11.18.15 at 11:09 pm
Wow, China getting in on the Isis slaying game.

….
Whack-a-mole 2016.
Three weeks ago yacking with a buddy– if Russia and US kiss and make up, and they can get India signed and franchise some quality jeead action over there before xmas, they’ll just need a hook for China. Lo and behold, how things change. Modi comes on board for some swag, and China now. (TPTB must have thrown in the deed to north Africa, north China sea.) The little white toyotas are gonna get punked. They’ve played out their purpose. Wild card… much ado about Turkey/Pakistan. Everybody else is coming on board, buddhists, hammas, alqueida, palestine, anonymous, all kumbaya for a really big shew. Bet Iran’s begging to get in. oo Canada told to go wait. There will be icky stuff.

#154 DON on 11.19.15 at 3:48 am

Millennials and Gen Y’s who jumped into the market and are ‘paying the monthly payments’ face the short end of the stick when it comes to job layoffs. They have youth on their side and can wait out the 7 year period after declaring bankruptcy and walking away from houses. It may even become socially acceptable if enough do it. Hell, it became socially acceptable to over leverage one’s future for granite counter tops and stainless steel new prefab houses. Never underestimate the herd.

#155 Buy? Curious? on 11.19.15 at 4:25 am

DEFAULT! WALK AWAY! DEFAULT!

It’s the new Canadian way!

#156 Writing is on the wall... on 11.19.15 at 4:50 am

1. Fed economists say conditions to raise rates could ‘well be met’ by December – reported by CBC today. Means mortgage rates set to rise by December.

2. Vancouver based Teck Resources cuts 1,000 jobs, lowers dividend – reported by BNN today (as much as you do not like them Garth, they do occasionally report something of use). Means non-oil and gas commodity based companies to continue layoffs if not more to come.

3. Very little if no good news on our economy in the past few quarters.

If Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac was any indication, CMHC should not audit itself.

Technicolor 40 year mortgages to the rescue “dreamers” are just that.

When CMHC loses $ billions, you already have a taxpayer funded rescue scheme for people leveraged to their eyeballs.

A near 0% probability that Canadian taxpayers will have a “Kumbaya”, “Michael Row the Boat Ashore” moment beyond the status quo. History shows it has never happened in Canada in the worst of RE asset losses.

…just a few more economic shocks and that once in 30 years wave is about to wash ashore in what is left of good news in Canadian RE.

25% of GDP nor 2 RE booming cities cannot sustain the other 75% of the Canadian economy nor can the richest of offshore investors.

It does not look good, at all…not one bit.

2 generations learned their lesson from the early 80’s and 90’s RE debacles. It would appear another generation is set to learn the same lesson (a.k.a., economic “gravity”).

#157 Vancouver Renter on 11.19.15 at 5:04 am

average 1.47mil in Vancouver -> 30% drop = 1mil

Still feel overpriced to me after the discount… have I made the wrong call the past 5 years?

#158 OXI in GREECE on 11.19.15 at 5:15 am

http://www.businessinsider.com/nordstrom-has-analysts-worried-about-us-economy-2015-11

Retailers crashing…….yup….definitely going to raise in December….

#159 westcdn on 11.19.15 at 5:23 am

My comment about Dream Reit fired up more responses than I expected – and I thought only the host read what I wrote. I have a couple of retorts from the host so I have to watch my P’s and Q’s.

In my view, the yield on D.un is high because the western properties have been written down heavily by investors. They are premium properties and seem to be even on cash flow. The trust debt to equity seems to be about 50% and the trust seems to mark assets to market so I don’t expect any great write-downs. If necessary, D.un can sell assets to reduce debt.

D.un is a trust so it is obligated to distribute 100% of net income to owners. Positive business cash flow is paramount in my evaluations and I think Dream’s are good. I think in these times, it is important to look at businesses that can survive hard times. D.un distributions are substantial for a long time and they have taken advantage of low interest rates.

As for being a yield hog – yield is justified by risk and I think there is a mispricing here. Dream is a minor investment for me so I stomach it going to zero or be a hero.

PS. I did sell some of my other Reits (mentioned before) and have cash to redeploy and more D.un is one of my targets. Forgive me if you lose on a Dream…

And I misspelt Muslim in a previous rant – it was not an evil plot to offend.

#160 Herb on 11.19.15 at 7:22 am

#131 Sharon fields,

welcome to the blog, Rona (Rahna?) Ambrose!

Carrying on the great CPC tradition of creating and slinging mud …

#161 pbrasseur on 11.19.15 at 8:20 am

« I knew that IT was booming in Canada, but I had no idea that games play such a big part of the equation»

Gaming industry is important in Montreal. It’s a heavily subsidized activity, the main player is the French company Ubisoft. This industry could shrink very quickly if the tax credits were removed (which the current government did at some point but backtracked).

#162 Bottoms_Up on 11.19.15 at 8:30 am

#145 Smoking Man on 11.19.15 at 1:30 am
—————————————–
Well I guess I’m a red pill kind of guy, and you prefer the blue. That’s fine, because the evidence is out there. Even exxon knew about global warming decades ago:

http://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2015/11/05/exxon-mobil-under-investigation-for-climate-change-denial

#163 Freeman on 11.19.15 at 8:41 am

Let me tell you how bad real estate is in Muskoka: A while ago my sister placed her cottage for sale on Kijiji, a nice 2 bedroom cottage that her ex-hubby paid $25,000 for 20 years ago and realtors estimate has a value of around $55,000 today. We don’t really need to sell it, we were just wondering what we could get for it, to see if even a low-ball offer would attract any offers.

Nope, none, zero.

There are only 10 ads for Muskoka cottages, ranging in price from $1,199,000 to $269,000.

We placed her cottage for $14,900.

Guess how many views: 130 views so far (almost nothing).

Guess how many inquiries to see the place: ZERO !

Yup, you cannot even give away a Muskoka cottage valued at $55,000 for $14,900 these days.

So these days when you reduce your house by 73% there still are not any takers out there. Just imagine what is going to happen to HOUSE PRICES when this hits the larger cities? Get out the popcorn, this is going to be FUN !!!

#164 fancy_pants on 11.19.15 at 9:17 am

More than ever I see Garth’s warnings enfolding. A major RE ‘crash’ (> 30%) is not a long shot anymore. If rates begin an ascent and oil prices remain low, it’s a done deal.

On the down side, for those on the sidelines, since the RE dip in early 2009, prices have increased by >30%; a crash may simply find you where you started a decade ago. Hopefully your saving grace was your portfolio churning 7% per year?

#165 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.19.15 at 9:27 am

@#158 Oxi in Greek

“Retailers crashing…….yup….definitely going to raise in December….”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Nordstrom and Macys sales are tanking. Q’elle surprise.
Nordstrom with its $1800 shoes and $3000 purses. Sorry, but methinks the folks that financed their $600 Apple phones over a 2 year contract are already “tapped out”.
But ya gotta “look” rich when you’re ordering a $5 coffee at Starbucks….
More importantly.
Hows WalMart doing?

#166 Paul on 11.19.15 at 9:34 am

#159 westcdn on 11.19.15 at 5:23 am

And I misspelt Muslim in a previous rant – it was not an evil plot to offend.
——————————————————————–
I was very offended!

Well Merry Xmas anyway. lol

#167 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.19.15 at 9:34 am

@#131 Sharon Feilds
“In the past week I ‘ve noticed a complete ban on anything said about the ongoing foibles of Justin Trudeau…..”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Well, if the premier of BC Christy Clark is any indication………
Just let a moron in front of a microphone and they’ll do the rest.
No need for us to criticise the “kid” …He’ll ride that gift horse straight to damnation.

#168 Bottoms_Up on 11.19.15 at 9:49 am

RE: ISIS, now that world powers are united in their demise, their time on this planet is limited.

And, many of them have HIV, and I would assume not enough medication to go around. I bet many of them are wishing for that Western medicine right now!!!

#169 fixie guy on 11.19.15 at 9:51 am

“Why do we care that Calgary real estate sales have fallen off a cliff or that Canada has but two horny housing markets left? Simple. It’s all about national net worth. ”

The problem is that claimed net worth is a wholesale fabrication. Sure, the house is now worth X but the bank owns it and your debt is 150% of X. Your house related net worth is negative.
The real estate cabal to the south trotted out these same fantasies until 2008, pointing to the constantly rising home-fueled phantasms of net worth as proof the economy was booming and ‘it’s different now’. And boom it did, just not in he sense their marketing claimed.

#170 Donald Trump on 11.19.15 at 10:03 am

Trudeau tells Obama that Canada will do ‘more than its part’ in the battle against ISIS. He wants to bring 25000 Syrian refugees to Canada and he wants to train the Syrian army. So, why not house the Syrian refugees at Canadian Forces Bases and train them to fight ISIS. Once we exterminate ISIS they won’t be refugees any more. Problem solved!

#171 The Other Chris on 11.19.15 at 10:04 am

@150 Frank on 11.19.15 at 2:11 am

Amen to that. Also, a number of the game studios now offer revenue sharing to engineers, in addition to stock option compensation, neither of which is reflected in the average salary.

Lately, some are also shifting to paying software engineers in US dollars, which is a real bonanza.

IT salaries are not as high here in the US, but it’s still one of the only bright lights in the current economy.

I’ve been feeling a little down lately because it looks like all my applications to government jobs have been rejected (made it to the written exam stage for one of them though). Might end up making the jump and retraining for something tech-related, though I am concerned about age-related hiring issues.

#172 Holy Crpa Wheres The Tylenol on 11.19.15 at 10:07 am

130 Smoking Man on 11.18.15 at 11:46 pm
#115 Mark on 11.18.15 at 10:59 pm
“I knew that IT was booming in Canada, but I had no idea that games play such a big part of the equation”
IT isn’t ‘booming’ in Canada by any stretch of the imagination. But game studios everywhere are always on the lookout for reasonably talented people willing to work 16 hour days for minimal pay. It is the quintessential burn and churn industry and jobs a’plenty for those few who fit that particular mold and are willing to sacrifice their youth to make games.
The infographic you point to says it best. Only a $71.3k average salary. Not even enough for home ownership in any of Canada’s major cities.
……
Your right, commodity, do you not see my brilinace, work from home consulting for a USA corp. Paid in green backs..
It was sporting today when I went to my bank, wire 20 k to Knights Bridge capital…to convert to CAD.
They charge, 0.005 off spot….bank charges 0.02
Shit I do for my wife’s gambling addiction, truth is. My drinking addiction is the route of the problem..
Take her there, my consumption restrictions are open..
Happy wife, happy life..
_____________________________________________
Ha Smoking Man my wife read this one and laughed her ass off. She said tell you to loose the lazy wife Super Happy Smoking Man. Or tell her to get off her ass and fund her own gambling problem by getting a job! Then she said perhaps she isn’t as educated as Smoking Man.
I said well perhaps she is, its the tail wagging the dog here.

#173 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.19.15 at 10:15 am

Oh to be a fly on the wall in that meeting.
Mr Obama;
“Now listen here boy, I think you should focus here on helping to end this Syrian crisis by staying in the game. Now Justin regarding the TPP I think, Justin, Justin? Where are you? Oh for gods sake will you stop taking selfies with every god dam person that comes up to you.”
Justin;
“Everybody please come back at 5:00 PM, I’ll being signing your boobs.”

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/11/18/Obama-presses-Canada-for-quick-TPP-approval.aspx

#174 TurnerNation on 11.19.15 at 10:21 am

Smoking man only a few collie dogs or men on horse back can with fear control a large herd or animal.

Today “IS” is controlling 7 billion people. Is there anything they can’t do.

It’s all decided in advance after meetings, that:

Leader A will pledge immediate action on Issue A.
Leader B will remain defiant in face of international pressure on Issue B.
Leader C will pledge to defend his country at all costs.

Nothing but nothing is left to chance. Every headline expertly is crafted by brilliant planners. Results are monitored by scraping all internet traffic and social media. Did you alter your profile pic as they want?

#175 lee on 11.19.15 at 11:08 am

Article by Gary Marr in the Financial Post today saying millenials delaying starting families because of house prices in Toronto and Vancouver. I am not sure what the point of the story was or why he considers this news. This train left the station three years ago. I guess his point is prices aren’t coming down so get used to renting. Still, I don’t see why he calls this news? Must be a slow news day.

All the news is here. — Garth

#176 young & foolish on 11.19.15 at 11:26 am

#51 Freedom
“You always sound so unbalanced. I see that Garth has left a number of comments trying to help you. No wonder he gave up.”

Nawh, I am indeed very “balanced” … maybe too much so …. and I can see clearly where the growth/cash flow is coming from.

#177 MF on 11.19.15 at 12:10 pm

#174 TurnerNation on 11.19.15 at 10:21 am

You are right about herd mentality (we are seeing it in Canadian real estate. We see it in the stock market).

But do you have any proof about your assertions that “they” are crafting everything?

How about things that occur by chance (like a typhoon, earth quake)? Did “they” plan that too?

The human mind will try to find logic where there is none. Sometimes things just happen without anyone’s control.

MF

#178 MF on 11.19.15 at 12:30 pm

#141 NEVER GIVE UP on 11.19.15 at 1:00 am

Thanks for the link.

After reading through it, I think the closing paragraph is most telling:

“Most experts agree, however, that it would be counterproductive to suddenly disarm U.S. police officers without addressing the origins of crime. “Any attempts to roll back the militarization of the American police would need to be accompanied by policies that increase economic and racial equality and legitimate opportunity for advancement for the poor,” sociologist Oddsson said.”

-Which is what I was hinting at. The police (and their guns) are not responsible for violent interactions between them and others. The real blame is on other socioeconomic reasons like poverty.

I’m not saying all officers on angels, but simply blaming the police and calling them dangerous is a deflection of the real issue, and unfairly pins the blame on those trying to help.

MF

#179 Sean on 11.19.15 at 12:36 pm

Hey Garth,

What happens to cities when property values fall? Aren’t property taxes based on the current value of you home. If we have a decline, that means all that revenue to the city disappears too? Or is it not linked that way.

Thanks again!

#180 Parsonage on 11.19.15 at 12:54 pm

#167 crowdedelevatorfartz

Just let a moron in front of a microphone and they’ll do the rest. No need for us to criticise the “kid”
__________________________________________

(uh) Not necessarily. (uh) Did (uh) anyone else (uh) notice that (uh) CBC, reporting last evening, (uh) did not show (uh) live clips, but (uh) paraphrased the (uh) PM?

#181 Sad Days Ahead on 11.19.15 at 1:08 pm

Canada has lost it’s sovereignty.

Capitulation looks like this.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/obama-speaks-for-canada-saying-both-countries-will-soon-sign-the-trans-pacific-partnership-agreement

#182 waiting on the westcoast on 11.19.15 at 1:09 pm

“All the news is here. — Garth”

And the entertainment! ;-)

I was chatting with a mortgage broker from Edmonton who is doing good business. Not on new sales but refinancing because people want to lock in at a low rate anticipating a few bad years ahead.

Our business units in Edmonton and Calgary were down 15% in October and around 18% year to date (especially bad since business was still growing in Q1/Q2). The rest of North America and Australia were up over 20% (although Perth also is struggling with revenue declining by 12%) – not a good time to be in markets selling commodities to China.

#183 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.19.15 at 1:14 pm

#170 Donald Trump on 11.19.15 at 10:03 am

Trudeau tells Obama that Canada will do ‘more than its part’ in the battle against ISIS. He wants to bring 25000 Syrian refugees to Canada and he wants to train the Syrian army. So, why not house the Syrian refugees at Canadian Forces Bases and train them to fight ISIS. Once we exterminate ISIS they won’t be refugees any more. Problem solved!
__________________________________________
Uhhhh, just hold on there! Whats this?

http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iran-and-hezbollah-controlling-president-assads-army-says-defected-syria-soldier-384437201

#184 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.19.15 at 1:17 pm

God these assholes are ugly mothers. Well the problem is you kill one cockroach and there are a thousand ready to replace them. RAID! Nuke em!

#185 Smoking Man on 11.19.15 at 1:38 pm

#172 Holy Crpa Wheres The Tylenol on 11.19.15 at 10:07 am
130 Smoking Man on 11.18.15 at 11:46 pm
#115 Mark on 11.18.15 at 10:59 pm
“I knew that IT was booming in Canada, but I had no idea that games play such a big part of the equation”
IT isn’t ‘booming’ in Canada by any stretch of the imagination. But game studios everywhere are always on the lookout for reasonably talented people willing to work 16 hour days for minimal pay. It is the quintessential burn and churn industry and jobs a’plenty for those few who fit that particular mold and are willing to sacrifice their youth to make games.
The infographic you point to says it best. Only a $71.3k average salary. Not even enough for home ownership in any of Canada’s major cities.
……
Your right, commodity, do you not see my brilinace, work from home consulting for a USA corp. Paid in green backs..
It was sporting today when I went to my bank, wire 20 k to Knights Bridge capital…to convert to CAD.
They charge, 0.005 off spot….bank charges 0.02
Shit I do for my wife’s gambling addiction, truth is. My drinking addiction is the route of the problem..
Take her there, my consumption restrictions are open..
Happy wife, happy life..
_____________________________________________
Ha Smoking Man my wife read this one and laughed her ass off. She said tell you to loose the lazy wife Super Happy Smoking Man. Or tell her to get off her ass and fund her own gambling problem by getting a job! Then she said perhaps she isn’t as educated as Smoking Man.
I said well perhaps she is, its the tail wagging the dog here.
…………………….

Ha you can’t take my drunken ramblings that serious. I tend to skew the facts with a bit of embellishing pie.

Any post between 9pm and 2am should be taken for the comedic value.

#186 Sheane Wallace on 11.19.15 at 1:44 pm

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/muslim-woman-told-back-home-144058420.html

The big divide.

It is strange how the law obviously allows to track abuse against specific race/religion.

A question:
If someone tries to quantify the crimes of a specific religious group or race is that hating or just statistics?

#187 Sheane Wallace on 11.19.15 at 1:52 pm

Got the answer: The first is defence, the second – offence form legal perspective, GT, you can ignore my previous post.

#188 Sheane Wallace on 11.19.15 at 1:58 pm

Total government mortgage insurance liabilities are over 1 trillion.

It is not about bringing CMHC to its knees, they will be reduced to one hand holding a head and nothing else left.

#189 Sheane Wallace on 11.19.15 at 2:00 pm

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_we_stand,_divided_we_fall

#190 Alvina Knows on 11.19.15 at 2:01 pm

#150 Frank

Mark worked very hard at a western Canadian university to earn two engineering degrees.

And even though his superior qualifications have prevented him from finding employment in his chosen field with any company in Canada or North America, his devotion to online blogs on matters of finance and IT has provided insight with value far in excess of the employment premia that he has foregone.

#191 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 11.19.15 at 2:05 pm

DELETED (anti-immigrant)

#192 S.Bby on 11.19.15 at 2:28 pm

More verbal diarrhea from the R/E pumpers:

https://www.central1.com/news/vancouver-toronto-home-prices-will-keep-rising-central-1-report-says

“Today’s house prices in Vancouver and Toronto are not overvalued from a long-term perspective, or for a long-term investor,” Pastrick says.

There are few signs that speculation is driving either market, he says.

#193 TurnerNation on 11.19.15 at 2:31 pm

Mf are you a weather modification conspiracist?

What I mean even your walk thru supermarket is controlled. ..paid product placement. Kids cereal with its character’s big beseeching eyes at kid level. Your kid having been targeted via a multi pronged TV and social media campaign first. Adults boring cereal is placed higher.

There is no independent reporting. Eg Sept 11 all TV feeds synced to one. On youtube you can find and independent reporter with video proof of phosphorous raining down in Iraq. Not a peep from embedded one.

Are you old enough to remember the picture of that girl, which ended Vietnam war? They’ll never again let that happen. .

Of course to you this proves nothing, keep believing the pyramid levels ends at head of state.

#194 TurnerNation on 11.19.15 at 2:35 pm

It’s been 15 years…what happened with the talk of liberation, beacon of democracy, little girls going to school? They will throw flowers at our feet, children will sing songs of praise? That meme is over. .playing for keeps out in the open now.

#195 Nagraj on 11.19.15 at 2:45 pm

GT: “Instead of the gradual housing correction I anticipate . . . is it possible job loss and rising rates could precipitate a run on confidence, and a true bust?”

Hardly an idle question which makes “Ripples” one of the most interesting posts. Clearly our gracious host keeps an open mind as to what could happen. Unless I’m mistaken he hasn’t asked this question before.

What data might we be looking for to help answer the question, (who else on Bay Street is taking the possibility of a bust into account)?

Canadian MSM is in the business of pushing consumer confidence at all costs – and political speech cannot admit pessimism. “Ripples” considerably augments this blog’s relevance.

#196 Julia on 11.19.15 at 2:58 pm

#179 Sean

“Hey Garth,
What happens to cities when property values fall? Aren’t property taxes based on the current value of you home. If we have a decline, that means all that revenue to the city disappears too? Or is it not linked that way.”

Cities adjust the tax (or mill) rate accordingly. If the average property value decreases, the mill rate will increase accordingly to allow for whatever increase the City decides.

No worries, Cities will not lose ;-)

#197 jess on 11.19.15 at 3:03 pm

Police Civil Asset Forfeitures Exceed All Burglaries in 2014
“ill gotten gains”
http://www.macmillandictionary.com/dictionary/british/ill-gotten-gains
http://www.justice.gov/atr/division-update/2015/depriving-wrongdoers-ill-gotten-gain
The Foreign Corrupt Practices Act in a New Era:
======
56 Nemesis on 11.18.15 at 8:17 pm
daesh -name calling
New York Daily News‎ – 17 hours ago
Want to drive a terrorist into a frenzy? Try calling him the D-word. Western leaders — most

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rF2NC7WHJs
=

Robots will destroy 15 million jobs warns Bank of England
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/robots-may-take-away-15-million-jobs-warns-bank-e...
7 days ago – In the coming decades, robots could eliminate about 15 million jobs across the country, the Bank of England has warned. The bank’s chief ..

All that leisure!
The Theory of the Leisure Class – Wikipedia, the free …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Theory_of_the_Leisure_Class
Conducted in the late 19th century, Veblen’s socio-economic analyses of the ….. the Leisure Class — published in 1899 — reflected Veblen’s 19th-century world …
NASA sends humanoid robots to university
Gizmag‎ – 13 hours ago
NASA is sending a pair of prototype humanoid robots back to school. Two R5 … Now it’s going back to its ultimate goal of helping to develop robotic astronauts. In addition to

#198 Mark on 11.19.15 at 3:26 pm

“Mark worked very hard at a western Canadian university to earn two engineering degrees.”

I only have one engineering degree. Not sure why you posted that, or the rest of your rather misleading commentary.

#199 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.19.15 at 3:27 pm

#197 jess on 11.19.15 at 3:03 pm

Police Civil Asset Forfeitures Exceed All Burglaries in 2014
“ill gotten gains”
http://www.macmillandictionary.com/dictionary/british/ill-gotten-gains
http://www.justice.gov/atr/division-update/2015/depriving-wrongdoers-ill-gotten-gain
The Foreign Corrupt Practices Act in a New Era:
======
56 Nemesis on 11.18.15 at 8:17 pm
daesh -name calling
New York Daily News‎ – 17 hours ago
Want to drive a terrorist into a frenzy? Try calling him the D-word. Western leaders — most

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8rF2NC7WHJs
=

Robots will destroy 15 million jobs warns Bank of England
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/robots-may-take-away-15-million-jobs-warns-bank-e
7 days ago – In the coming decades, robots could eliminate about 15 million jobs across the country, the Bank of England has warned. The bank’s chief ..

All that leisure!
The Theory of the Leisure Class – Wikipedia, the free …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Theory_of_the_Leisure_Class
Conducted in the late 19th century, Veblen’s socio-economic analyses of the ….. the Leisure Class — published in 1899 — reflected Veblen’s 19th-century world …
NASA sends humanoid robots to university
Gizmag‎ – 13 hours ago
NASA is sending a pair of prototype humanoid robots back to school. Two R5 … Now it’s going back to its ultimate goal of helping to develop robotic astronauts. In addition to
_____________________________________________
That’s how it all started. Were doomed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LcL3eP0Hfy4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sqS83f-NUww
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q2x14ZhEc9k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rL6RRIOZyCM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHz95RYUbik

#200 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.19.15 at 3:32 pm

#185 Smoking Man on 11.19.15 at 1:38 pm

#172 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.19.15 at 10:07 am
130 Smoking Man on 11.18.15 at 11:46 pm
#115 Mark on 11.18.15 at 10:59 pm
“I knew that IT was booming in Canada, but I had no idea that games play such a big part of the equation”
IT isn’t ‘booming’ in Canada by any stretch of the imagination. But game studios everywhere are always on the lookout for reasonably talented people willing to work 16 hour days for minimal pay. It is the quintessential burn and churn industry and jobs a’plenty for those few who fit that particular mold and are willing to sacrifice their youth to make games.
The infographic you point to says it best. Only a $71.3k average salary. Not even enough for home ownership in any of Canada’s major cities.
……
Your right, commodity, do you not see my brilinace, work from home consulting for a USA corp. Paid in green backs..
It was sporting today when I went to my bank, wire 20 k to Knights Bridge capital…to convert to CAD.
They charge, 0.005 off spot….bank charges 0.02
Shit I do for my wife’s gambling addiction, truth is. My drinking addiction is the route of the problem..
Take her there, my consumption restrictions are open..
Happy wife, happy life..
_____________________________________________
Ha Smoking Man my wife read this one and laughed her ass off. She said tell you to loose the lazy wife Super Happy Smoking Man. Or tell her to get off her ass and fund her own gambling problem by getting a job! Then she said perhaps she isn’t as educated as Smoking Man.
I said well perhaps she is, its the tail wagging the dog here.
…………………….

Ha you can’t take my drunken ramblings that serious. I tend to skew the facts with a bit of embellishing pie.

Any post between 9pm and 2am should be taken for the comedic value.
_____________________________________________
She is still laughing, she has seen your supposed drunken postings and your supposed sober ones. She said what is the difference?

#201 MF on 11.19.15 at 4:06 pm

#193 TurnerNation on 11.19.15 at 2:31 pm

“Mf are you a weather modification conspiracist?”

Lol yeah working hard to prevent snow here in the GTA because I can’t stand driving in it and having to wear my jacket.

Anyhow, I don’t believe everything I hear on the news, not at all. But I also do not believe that there is a shadow group that controls everything.

Brand marketing is one thing (easily proven, clear reason for use, academic research to back it up) and shadow government conspiracies are another.

We have no proof that any one group exerts that much control over everything. Nothing.

Those watching the MSM are called lemmings by others who claim to know better all because they read some alternative website that knows the “truth”. These alternative sources appeal to primitive emotions like fear, anger etc. to deliver their own bias…basically doing the same thing that they are purporting to warn their readers against. Never mind the fact the information is written by a sole writer most of the time.

MF

#202 family beagle on 11.19.15 at 4:11 pm

#183, #184 Holy Crap Where’s the Tylenol

From the article..
Western nations have longed called for the removal of Assad. However, after recent IS attacks in Paris killed 129 people, prominent figures have decided to back the beleaguered Syrian president.

Former British army chief Sir David Richards said on Wednesday that Assad represented the “most credible” force on the ground to fight IS.

Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo has also said that Assad represents a “lesser evil” than IS and called for cooperation with Damascus against IS.

…..

My concerns for the refugees, if they are vetted Syrian families, is that sponsored mercenaries have put them in a crossfire. The munitions, vehicles, weapons have been sourced to one instigator. The region was multicultural until a superpower began meddling. I believe history will prove Trudeau is brave for standing up and saying we aren’t playing those sick games and pulling out. There is video record of the US trained FSA leader claiming cooperation with isis. It’s a tangled plot.

Could an agent of terror be implanted among 25k refugees brought to Canada? Yes. But their phone might have a few numbers on speed dial that would shock western conformists.

#203 Leo Trollstoy on 11.19.15 at 4:13 pm

Mark, shut up about IT. You don’t know what you’re talking about. I work in the industry and your knowledge of the working conditions is based off EA stories from 12 years ago.

The average salary is low because that includes artists, modelers, animators etc who are paid much less than engineers.

Please stop talking about something you know nothing about over and over. It discredits everything you say.

Mark, you should seriously consider this advice. I don’t think your two university degrees amounts to much if you don’t understand the industry that you’re talking about.

It also doesn’t help when you go on RFD to talk about the years and years that you were unable to get an employer to hire you. It kind of diminishes your credibility.

#204 -=jwk=- on 11.19.15 at 4:22 pm

@ #124 losing patience. With 20% down, your 360k place mortgage would be less than rent. You do have at leas 20% down,right? Years of renting has given you a 100k+ downpayment so you can buy at ~430, have a mortgage of 330 that needs $1200/mo …right?

Sure, you’ll lose your principal but happy wife….

#205 Sheane Wallace on 11.19.15 at 4:27 pm

#192 S.Bby on 11.19.15 at 2:28 pm
More verbal diarrhea from the R/E pumpers:

https://www.central1.com/news/vancouver-toronto-home-prices-will-keep-rising-central-1-report-says

“Today’s house prices in Vancouver and Toronto are not overvalued from a long-term perspective, or for a long-term investor,” Pastrick says.

There are few signs that speculation is driving either market, he says.
——————————-

Business and ethics have fully parted away these days.

This is what allows for much greater deformation and distortion of markets

The housing market in Canada is by far the largest property bubble in the history of the world considering fundamentals (e.g. land, resources etc.)
and is an extraordinary example of incompetence and criminal negligence at every possible level:
– lack of reliable and consistent information on sales and prices (due to the real estate cartel monopoly)
– lack of sound insurance practices (i.e. proper pricing of risk in mortgage insurance)
– media and real estate hype and manipulation
– miscalculated government policies
– ridiculous building codes, hence the glass condos/substandard dwellings
– lack of competence at BOC in determination of interest rates and inflation
– greedy municipal governments (land transfer taxes, property taxes)

When this thingy blows up it will be big and smelly.

#206 MF on 11.19.15 at 4:27 pm

#202 family beagle on 11.19.15 at 4:11 pm

The “superpower” you are referring to is the USSR/Russia right?

MF

#207 gut check on 11.19.15 at 4:33 pm

@ #201 MF on 11.19.15 at 4:06 pm

Yes, you’re exactly correct on all counts. that’s why it pays to learn from all angles and on a variety of subjects. It also pays to trust one’s gut, to ignore professional skeptics, and to learn other languages (or enough of them at least to follow their news using translate programs)

Also, you have to be able to let go of the myths our culture perpetuates. It’s difficult, but necessary if you’re really interested in personal growth. they don’t call it ‘culture’ for nothing. I got out of the petrie dish a long time ago.

Without an understanding of the ways in which many, many subjects overlap there is no way to get to the truth. And without regularly and brutally checking one’s own bias one cannot formulate anything close to a valuable opinion.

There is so much learning to do. :)

#208 TurnerNation on 11.19.15 at 5:00 pm

Mf I follow main stream sites..and nothing makes sense. Let’s see how many decisions are made at the country level going forward. Carbon taxes seem set to be a global decision. I expect more travel restrictions to follow.

Bottom line, when trillions of wealth is at stake nothing is left to chance. “IS” will be tweeting exactly what is needed to reshape this world, and our rights. Just watch them.

#209 Washed Up Lawyer on 11.19.15 at 5:04 pm

Beautiful things happen on a daily basis here in Ft. McMurray. Cheapest transit fares in the country. $1.25 per trip, including the number 11 on its 40 minute trip to the airport. And a dandy transit system.

Every bus ride I take, an indigent person gets on and tells the driver that he/she has no money. The driver says “Take a seat and pay double next time.” Get on the LRT in Calgary without a ticket ($3.25 I believe) and the transit cops hand you a ticket ($150 last I heard)

It helps that the oil sands industry pays about $800 million annually in municipal taxes.

Both yesterday and today, I paid the fare of a passenger that had no coin. They look at me agog and offer sincere thanks. Least I can do.

#210 MF on 11.19.15 at 5:13 pm

#202 family beagle on 11.19.15 at 4:11 pm

How is this any different from the Red Scare of the 50’s and 60’s though?

We’ve been here before and the world didn’t end thankfully.

MF

#211 family beagle on 11.19.15 at 5:21 pm

#206 MF on 11.19.15 at 4:27 pm

The “superpower” you are referring to is the USSR/Russia right?

MF

……

Hi,
No, Russia has been consistent in its support for Assad. I was thinking of someone else.

#212 MF on 11.19.15 at 5:22 pm

Last message was meant for

#208 TurnerNation on 11.19.15 at 5:00 pm

Mf

#213 Mark on 11.19.15 at 5:28 pm

Mark, shut up about IT. You don’t know what you’re talking about. I work in the industry and your knowledge of the working conditions is based off EA stories from 12 years ago.

I beg your pardon? The IT sector in Canada is a disaster. You are the one who doesn’t know what you’re talking about. There has been no real recovery since the demise of a great chunk of the sector in the early 2000s on account of the demise of many of Canada’s major players and significant outsourcing in the rest of the industry.

I don’t know what your reference to EA is, but I have a few friends who have been involved with the video game software industry, and they describe the conditions as being akin to sweatshops. The low average salaries (which you can verify with Glassdoor if you want — not even enough for basic home ownership in Canada) verify that it is anything but a ‘hot’ industry.

Even minimally advertised IT positions are drawing, in Canada, 50-100 resumes from qualified individuals. There is no upwards pressure on salaries. IT professionals have lost a dramatic amount of ground in the market since the turn of the century, and there is little to no evidence of any upturn in the sector.

#214 family beagle on 11.19.15 at 5:35 pm

MF, TurnerNation,
An interesting graphic that lists players in the conflict based on the timeline since 2012. It’s cutsey and innocuous, but gives faces to names and shows the complexity.

https://youtu.be/NND2kacY2TY

#215 jess on 11.19.15 at 5:43 pm

In today’s issue of Science, John Bohannon (who recently published a bogus study about the benefits of chocolate) explains how easy it is to take over a journal’s website — so easy, in fact, that he did it himself. And he’s not the only one, he reports:

http://retractionwatch.com/2015/11/19/can-journals-get-hijacked-apparently-yes/#more-34474

http://scienceblogs.com/insolence/2014/12/31/oh-no-gmos-are-going-to-make-everyone-autistic/

#216 Dave #2 on 11.19.15 at 5:43 pm

“Since the government’s fiscal position has benefited from [CMHC’s] historic progress — $15 billion [of profit] over the past decade”

Where did the money go Mr. Harper ??

#217 chapter 9 on 11.19.15 at 5:44 pm

Yasin Mohamed Ali was arrested yesterday outside of centre block trying to enter parliament. Must have been having a bad day cause he forgot to leave the meat cleaver at home!!!!

#218 Grace Tillbury on 11.19.15 at 5:46 pm

“Anything that Justin does at this point will take several years to be felt.”

Justin hasn’t done anything…so that’s ‘three years and counting?’

He did capitulate to Obama’s anti- oil legacy….that’s costing hundreds of jobs every day….so why hasn’t he said anything about the economy instead of lobbing soft balls at an adoring Canadian leftist media about anything of no consequence….and they manage to work ‘sexy’ into every gaffe.

Why has Justin said nothing about how Canadian companies are going to revenue for the hospitals, schools and elder care we desperately need.

He has given millions to Indonesia in support of the countries policy of killing pristine forest and murdering the helpless wildlife.

“Anything that Justin does at this point will take several years to be felt.”

Tell that to the hundreds of thousands of Canadians who’ll lose their jobs while Justin fiddles.

#219 bdy sktrn on 11.19.15 at 5:56 pm

#180 Parsonage on 11.19.15 at 12:54 pm
#167 crowdedelevatorfartz

Just let a moron in front of a microphone and they’ll do the rest. No need for us to criticise the “kid”
__________________________________________

(uh) Not necessarily. (uh) Did (uh) anyone else (uh) notice that (uh) CBC, reporting last evening, (uh) did not show (uh) live clips, but (uh) paraphrased the (uh) PM?

————————
and great big long ugly maybe-i-just-burped uhs.

it’s painful to listen to. counted 7 in a 4 second clip the other day. now i just avoid video of him talking.

#220 bdy sktrn on 11.19.15 at 6:15 pm

#209 Washed Up Lawyer on 11.19.15 at 5:04 pm
Beautiful things happen on a daily basis here in Ft. McMurray.
Both yesterday and today, I paid the fare of a passenger that had no coin. They look at me agog and offer sincere thanks. Least I can do.
—————————-
just curious why the bus over a warm car with ammenities (can’t drive thru sbux, etc) ?

nice gesture though.

#221 cynically on 11.19.15 at 6:16 pm

To #137 No Name: What a beautiful respite from all the reading required on this blog to know everything in our world. One of the most beautiful pieces ever. Certainly in the top five. Thank you!

#222 Snowboid on 11.19.15 at 6:16 pm

#141 NEVER GIVE UP on 11.19.15 at 1:00 am…

Although most police forces have historically been based on military-style roots (as in the RCMP), I agree there is much more force used now than years ago, say in the late 70s.

Back then you had to rely on gentle persuasion and intellectual means. Radio communications, especially in the mountains was sketchy and portables were new technology – they relied on ‘repeaters’ in the trunk of the police car and usually didn’t work.

Backup was often an hour away if you were a rural car or highway patrol. Responding to a fight when you knew you were the only one responding meant you had to have your wits about you.

You seldom needed to use force or draw your weapon, but you still were well-trained to use both.

I can’t imagine how they manage today with all the gear they have. The old Sam Browne held a handcuff case, holster, extra rounds (speed loader) for the 6 shot S&W .38, a clip for a flashlight and portable if you had one. No bulletproof vests, cameras, tasers, pepper spray, etc. The only ones reasonably well-equipped were the fledgling ERT squads.

I would say it’s extremely difficult to be in law enforcement these days, much more than in the past.

#223 Mf on 11.19.15 at 6:19 pm

#211 family beagle on 11.19.15 at 5:21 pm

Oh.

Britain since they partitioned the area around the end of ww1?

Turkey since they occupied the whole area prior to that?

My mistake,

Sorry

MF

#224 Frank on 11.19.15 at 6:28 pm

I don’t know what your reference to EA is

Of course you don’t. If you worked in the industry you would know. Everyone knows it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erin_Hoffman#.22EA_Spouse.22_blog_post

but I have a few friends who have been involved with the video game software industry

Cool, I know myself but I’m sure people you talk to know stuff too.

The low average salaries (which you can verify with Glassdoor if you want — not even enough for basic home ownership in Canada) verify that it is anything but a ‘hot’ industry.

The average for the industry includes many roles. It’s still higher than average but if you extract out engineering/IT from there like I’m suggesting (and like we’re talking about) then it’s much higher. Making that ~$70K number irrelevant. I repeat, software developers do not average $70K.

#225 Smoking Man on 11.19.15 at 6:46 pm

http://www.simplyhired.com/salaries-k-vba-fixed-income-developer-jobs.html

Mark, vba developers working in fixed income as contractors. Make between 200 500 k depending on location and corp..

Ha, with degree required…If your a rock star code Smith.

The average salary shown in link is bull shit.. but them maybe that’s what FTE make…

#226 Leo Trollstoy on 11.19.15 at 6:48 pm

#213 Mark on 11.19.15 at 5:28 pm

Mark, seriously stop posting about IT. You’re getting killed by posters who know more about the industry than you.

I know you feel qualified to comment about unemployment because you have 2 degrees and have experienced being unemployed for long periods of time but you’re destroying your credibility when you comment about the IT industry.

#227 Nemesis on 11.19.15 at 7:07 pm

Are you old enough to remember the picture of that girl, which ended Vietnam war? They’ll never again let that happen. – TurnerNation

#NapalmGirl,AKA… #PhanThiKimPhuc… #Refugee… #Canadian

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phan_Thi_Kim_Phuc

#BonusAdrenalin… #It’sADirtyBusiness?…

[NewRepublic] – Is War Photography Beautiful or Damned?

https://newrepublic.com/article/124034/war-photography-beautiful-damned

#The1000YardStareGuy… #TellsItLikeItIs…

[Guardian] – Don McCullin: ‘Photojournalism has had it. It’s all gone celebrity’

http://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2012/dec/22/don-mccullin-photojournalism-celebrity-interview

What comes across strongly in the film is that you were there during the glory days of journalism. What do you think of photojournalism these days?

It’s had it. Nobody wants to look at spreads of dying children. They want to see higher heels. It’s all gone celebrity, hasn’t it? Celebrity, looks, fashion. If I see another picture of Gwyneth Paltrow, I think I’ll put my head down the lavatory. Fake tans, Beckhams, Jamie Oliver. I can’t take any more of it. That’s why I’m going to Syria.

#228 saskatoon on 11.19.15 at 7:11 pm

#201 MF

incidentally, hardcore weather modification has been around for decades:

“The Environmental Modification Convention (ENMOD), formally the Convention on the Prohibition of Military or Any Other Hostile Use of Environmental Modification Techniques is an international treaty prohibiting the military or other hostile use of environmental modification techniques having widespread, long-lasting or severe effects. It opened for signature on 18 May 1977 in Geneva and entered into force on 5 October 1978.

The Convention bans weather warfare, which is the use of weather modification techniques for the purposes of inducing damage or destruction.”

#229 bdy sktrn on 11.19.15 at 7:15 pm

Records kept by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver reveal just how extreme price increases for Vancouver have been since 2005. Prices for all types of residential housing jumped 99 per cent in East Vancouver, and 82 per cent on the West Side.

Warnings about overvaluation of Canada’s housing market largely have fallen on deaf ears, with Canadians showing no hesitation in continuing to buy, especially in Vancouver and Toronto.

Among those warnings: Fitch Ratings Agency in July estimated Canada’s housing market was 20 per cent overvalued. The International Monetary Fund has warned the country’s housing market is overvalued by between seven and 20 per cent, depending on the region. The Bank of Canada suggested late last year that Canada’s housing market may be overvalued by as much as 30 per cent.

But it is not clear any of these warnings apply to Vancouver. As recently as August, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation pointed out that Vancouver’s housing market is at low risk of correction.

That is because prices here tend to be high for substantive reasons that are likely to endure — a finite land base restricted by the area’s geography, and steady population growth.

The business council notes that in addition to immigrant inflows, more Canadians are now moving to B.C., particularly from Alberta and Ontario. The province received nearly 4,000 people from other provinces in the second quarter of 2015.
———————————-
hey easterners, were full, stay home. as if.

http://www.vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/barbara+yaffe+survey+shows+canadian+housing+prices/11529889/story.html

#230 Washed Up Lawyer on 11.19.15 at 7:18 pm

#220 bdy sktrn on 11.19.15 at 6:15 pm
#209 Washed Up Lawyer on 11.19.15 at 5:04 pm
—————————-
just curious why the bus over a warm car with ammenities (can’t drive thru sbux, etc) ?
*************************

Virtue, the moral high ground and a tiny carbon footprint. I ignore the energy demands of the beer brewing industry. The facts might make me a hypocrite and undo my virtue.

#231 family beagle on 11.19.15 at 7:20 pm

#223 MF

US congress votes to suspend bill allowing Syrian refugees…
http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/19/politics/house-democrats-refugee-hearings-obama/index.html

If I was writing a Tom Clancy novel… Canada brings in 25k refugees despite US dissapproval. A lone wolf pack commits terror act below 49th and… voila a Syrian passport turns up with a Canadian border stamp. Mob sentiment in US fuels military intervention into Canada. Then an isis insurgency mysteriously appears in TO which requires full on bombing from a US backed coalition. And so it goes.

#232 SWL1976 on 11.19.15 at 7:41 pm

#228 saskatoon – Indeed

Obvious to some, to others… Not so much

I’m gonna go out on a limb and say the ones who are behind it all couldn’t care less about treaties or conventions

#233 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.19.15 at 7:59 pm

@#229 Bdy Skytrn
“But it is not clear any of these warnings apply to Vancouver…..
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
“Because its different here…..”

#234 46 and 2 on 11.20.15 at 6:01 pm

Decided to jump back in….so what’s new?