Zombie nation

1PHONES

Most people forget housing’s a commodity. The price is set by supply and demand. Whether anyone wants to buy your home or not is determined by their confidence and access to money. Plus hormones. And mom. And HGTV.

Our national house lust, fed by cheap interest rates, has inflated real estate to the point where it carries a ton of risk. The nature of that risk lies in the gap between what the property’s worth and what it sells for. They’re not the same. Worth is determined by things like replacement cost, what cash flow that asset could generate (in rent) plus the ability of people who live in the locale to afford it (based on income). In contrast, value is set by the market – sometimes made up of demented, inexperienced bidders hepped up on leverage and throwing around money they never expect to repay.

Yesterday I told you the reason someone would buy something for twice the price of a few years ago – because they fear it will go higher. That’s irrational, I know. But people are essentially herd animals. The same holds true on the downside. When prices fall, they fear they will go lower – so buyers evaporate, then listings pile up.  It really doesn’t matter what inflates houses (low mortgages, Chinese dudes, Liberals) nor what deflates them (rate hikes, oil, layoffs) because all that really counts is the way people feel about it.

And these days they’re confused.

Look at the latest stats out of CREA. Quelle mess. We have  dweebish exuberance in YVR, a cooling trend wafting over Toronto, despair in Calgary and a seeping WTFness in a bulk of other markets where sales are stagnant or falling and nobody’s making money on real estate anymore.

Cowtown matters, as I’ve tried to impress here over the last few months. Two years ago it was our hottest market. Now it’s the worst. That’s not because a recession has descended, but rather because it’s dawning on people that housing’s a bad gig, and if they’re worried about a job or a fat mortgage it’s best to get out or delay getting in.

Look at the numbers. Ugly. Sales down 36.4% last month year/year in Calgary and almost 30% across the entire province. Prices are off about 4% or more in both markets, but on-the-street evidence is of a far bigger erosion. (Recall the Priddis McMansions selling for 60% off at auction last month.) In Fort Mac sales have fallen by almost half and prices are lower by 11%. In Edmonton the pace of deals has have fallen 15%.

In Regina sales have dropped 12%. In Saskatoon last month the year/rear decline in sales activity was almost 20%. Both sales and prices in Winnipeg are lower by 3%. In Montreal sales were ahead slightly and the median house price touched $300,000 for the first time. Amazing bargain in the country’s second-largest market.

Here’s how BeeMo economist Doug Porter characterized the western thing: “The renewed sag in oil in recent months looks to have triggered a renewed weakening in housing markets across much of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Six of the 25 major markets reported double-digit declines in sales last month, and four of those were in these two provinces.”

When it comes to housing prices, here’s a little chart (from CREA) on the wild disparities now taking place across the country. As you can see, any brag that Canadian house prices ‘rose 8.3% on average in October’ as the anchorettes on Global will tell you, is bunk.

1CALGARY

The single remaining source of gas being shoved into the bubble is coming from Vancouver, those poor people who live beyond the rocks, spend all day on Twitter and find out who won elections before they actually vote. Apart from that troubled city, along with 416, the Canadian housing market is becoming “incredibly weak,” according to TD Economics.

Worse, as you know, mortgage rates are set to rise. In fact, the upward pressure is already there, already being felt and manifested. Once December 16th comes and goes, you can look forward to a steady exit from the 2% range as all rates enter the next digit and beyond. Be aware that once rates begin to ascend, they will continue on a slow but relentless path, if history is any guide. The Fed always tightens in a series of moves, and almost always Canadian bond yields and eventually the Bank of Canada have followed.

This could be the perfect storm. Lousy commodity values and a big hit on real estate in a country whose largest export is oil. Regional housing markets reflecting a weak economy, fewer job prospects and diminished consumer confidence. Then, higher mortgage costs – having the biggest effect on the place where mortgages are most epic.

Nobody in Vancouver, or under 30, believes any of this. They think it’s different this time. It’s so cute.

Zzzz.

187 comments ↓

#1 Dug t on 11.17.15 at 6:21 pm

First….

#2 gladiator on 11.17.15 at 6:31 pm

Very good picture – just look around when you ride the subway/train/bus – it’s a zombie nation ruled by its majesty the smartphone.

Phones are getting smarter and people are getting dumber. It’s a trend. Idiocracy, here we come!

#3 mitzerboy aka queencity kid on 11.17.15 at 6:33 pm

todays post pretty well sums it up things out here garth

along with the zombie smart phone people sign

#4 Banking with ISIS on 11.17.15 at 6:44 pm

Yesterday Putin described a convoy of oil tankers stretching to the horizon. At the end of that convoy you will not find a gas station attendant with a money pouch exchanging oil for cash. You will find a cabal of bankers willing to facilitate, for a fee, the exchange oil for weapons, Toyotas, buildings, food and anything else you need to rage war against humanity. Without finance there would be no war. Without bankers there are no terrorists. The enemies of humanity are not suicide bombing muslims or child molesting christians. The enemies of humanity are the bankers. The same vermin blowing Canada’s housing bubble. They are the facilitators of all crimes against humanity.

#5 JSS on 11.17.15 at 6:46 pm

Recently, I looked at the dividend history of common shares for National Bank. It appears that in 1992, the dividend was chopped by half. Also, from May 1982 to July 1983, there were no dividends paid.

Wasn’t there a housing crash in the early 1980’s and early 1990’s? If history repeats itself, Canadian banks like National Bank may get hit again.

See link below:

https://nationalbank.com/content/dam/bnc/en/about-us/investors/investor-relations/capital-and-debt-informations/dividend-paid-share-1980-todate.pdf

#6 waiting on the westcoast on 11.17.15 at 6:46 pm

Well – I am caving and buying a house in Vancouver…. Worth the risk with the trajectory it’s on… I will make 400k in 18 months…

#7 paul on 11.17.15 at 6:47 pm

#210 Bottoms_Up on 11.17.15 at 5:35 pm

#206 Paul on 11.17.15 at 5:08 pm
———————————
Ok….then please explain how our yearly immigration numbers can swing 20,000 one way or another? 15,000 extra Syrian refugees is inconsequential to the capacity of our existing immigration system….however timeline may be an issue. Of course our leaders will ensure it is done in a safe fashion. If you disagee, please explain why?
———————————————————-

#213 paul on 11.17.15 at 6:11 pm

I just don’t feel they can thoroughly vet 25,000 people by the end of the year. Hey if they come I just hope they are happy to be here and try assimilate a little bit.
I have hired a team of 80 people and with I.D. applications,resumes, references, it took 90 days and three job fairs. The Americans are saying their can’t process 10,000 in I think 180 days and half the States don’t want them. I know they are in full election mode.
It looks like we will see if it was a good move or not soon enough.

#8 Investorz on 11.17.15 at 6:47 pm

“I have to swallow my pride”

Fort mcMurray chemical engineer trying to sell his house, says that he “can probably carry the mortgage for a couple of months”

Video on BNN:
http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=745497

Advance to 22 minutes.

#9 Ken Nash on 11.17.15 at 6:48 pm

I appreciate this is a real estate and investing pound. Curious what kind of fixes Garth thinks would get the country going? Garth’s Top Ten to get the Canadian economy going again. Then straight back to investing and dismal real estate predictions.

#10 MORE BABIES TO SUPPORT THE BOOMERS on 11.17.15 at 6:50 pm

WITH THE GROWING NUMBER OF BOOMERS, THERE NEEDS MORE YOUNG PEOPLE TO PAY FOR ALL THE HEALTHCARE AND PENSION COSTS

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/homeandproperty/rising-home-prices-are-keeping-canadians-from-starting-families-survey-says/ar-BBn7WVE?li=AA54rW&ocid=mailsignoutmd

#11 waiting on the westcoast on 11.17.15 at 6:51 pm

PSYCH!

still waiting…. Worth apologize that house money poured into my investments, I can afford to!

Garth – keep up the blog. The doses of sanity help me when I start dreaming of granite and stainless…

#12 waiting on the westcoast on 11.17.15 at 6:53 pm

Really need to review what I write with swype sometimes…

With all that… Not worth apologize…

#13 the Jaguar on 11.17.15 at 6:57 pm

Garth, if you are quoting Porter from BeeMo, he was also quoted in the Globe today as expressing concern that the marketplace in the lower mainland (Van) and GTA were being affected by offshore purchasers and he would be in favour of the Feds stepping in to initiate some controls. Appears even economists from the Big 5 are not dismissive of the effect foreign buyers are having on prices.

#14 Frank on 11.17.15 at 7:10 pm

You’re right Garth and now it looks like what you’ve been warning about for years if happening. There are cracks in the dam.

I don’t want to dwell but just a point in sexism as discussed last week. I mentioned that I thought you madebcasually sexist comments by unfairly portraying women as the more misguided. Easy to accuse but I should provide examples

anchorettes

You’re saying that female anchors on TV are too stupid to understand the data correctly. True but because of their vapid profession or gender? Are the male hosts no more delusional? If so why use a made up word like anchorettes when anchor would have been both the proper term and less derogatory?

Why would an anchorette be female? You sound sexist. — Garth

#15 Chris on 11.17.15 at 7:11 pm

Is the blog still on daylight saving time? Times seem to be an hour off as it is only 18:11 now.

Then you are in the wrong time zone. — Garth

#16 common sense on 11.17.15 at 7:13 pm

Just one question..

“On a slow and but relentless path….” based on history.

Are the times we are in today with relentless QE over the past 6 years similar to anytime in the recent past?

Just curious.

#17 Freedom First on 11.17.15 at 7:14 pm

Despair in Calgary is a true statement. You know the $$$TF when the msm is covering the RE market crashing in Calgary and Ft. MacMoney in great detail. A house is not a financial “security blanket”.

Having balance, diversity, liquidity, income streams, cash, cash flow and 0 debt is the financial kevlar that I wear.

People who heed this message and use this way of thinking, either from the beginning of their lives or stop, think, and adjust to it at any time, will find their lives enriched with joy, happiness, and Freedom that will shock and amaze them. The world has been feeding you lies.

And the good news? Any idiot can do it.

#18 Chris on 11.17.15 at 7:15 pm

Canadian and Australian housing prices are crazy. And they reflect mass immigration and the limit of so few cities that the majority of the inflow population like to settle in. I mean you cannot expect a new immigrant to Canada to start their life in peterborough or some small city like that. The whole Canada has only 2 cities immigrants would want to live in, now Calgary is off the list. That is Toronto and Vancouver. Sad reality but true.

#19 common sense on 11.17.15 at 7:16 pm

As in the past 100 years?

#20 Gray Man on 11.17.15 at 7:22 pm

#4 Banking with ISIS
Well said whole heartedly agree with you.
This is well worth watching perhaps George Carlins finest 3min rant
Pure genius !
http://shoqvalue.com/george-carlin-on-the-american-dream-with-transcript/

#21 MSM-Free Zone on 11.17.15 at 7:26 pm

“….seeping WTFness…..”
_________________________

Excellent.

Another phrase to add to my vocabulary when conversing with daughter about her excessive Rogers’ GBness.

How long until Moxie’s begins installing USB charger ports alongside their bathroom TV screens?

#22 LH on 11.17.15 at 7:27 pm

In a mark to market world, a house is worth what it sells for. To think otherwise smacks of Marxism.

#23 MSM-Free Zone on 11.17.15 at 7:29 pm

“….The price is set by supply and demand…..”
_________________________

We only wish…..

#24 Shaking Fist of Liberal Righteousness on 11.17.15 at 7:30 pm

In Germany they have been confiscating from owners and occupants apartments and houses with more rooms than the occupant can use…in order to house ‘refugee’s.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/11891631/German-woman-threatened-with-eviction-to-make-way-for-refugees.html

Perhaps our Trud-Doh will make the leap and grab unused bedrooms and basement suites from reluctant homeowners and owners.

There are a lot of ‘black condo’s’ in down town towers owned by ‘Christs sake don’t call the HAM’ ….maybe the liberal goons can house the refugee’s in the ‘decadent space’ left behind by ‘Good God don’t call them foreign’ owners’ .

Waddaya think comrade Libs….should we send the social media gestapo in and liberate the space from the rich, foreign buyer and small business owners our desperately dull Trud-Doh has identified as the enemy?

#25 S.Bby on 11.17.15 at 7:36 pm

#11 Waiting
—————-
I’m happy to hear that.

#26 Andrew on 11.17.15 at 7:37 pm

As a Vancouverite, I take little solace in the fact that the Canadian housing market overall didn’t rise 8% on average, when the Vancouver market alone rose more than 15%!

I couldn’t care less about sales in SK, AB and even ON. So yes, the housing market is still exploding here and doesn’t look like stopping. Even a gradual slowdown and increase in interest rates will only dent the gains that have already been made. It would take a catastrophic crash to bring prices to anything like normal now.

Sorry Garth, I just don’t see the implosion you speculate that is going to happen here in Vancouver. Sure, Canada as a whole may be a deathbed for real estate, but YVR is as strong as ever and even increasing interest rates will only slow down the runaway train.

#27 babblemaster on 11.17.15 at 7:37 pm

“Worse, as you know, mortgage rates are set to rise.” – Garth

———————————————

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I’ll believe it when I see it.

Happened Monday. — Garth

#28 DON on 11.17.15 at 7:37 pm

#11 waiting on the westcoast on 11.17.15 at 6:51 pm

PSYCH!

still waiting…. Worth apologize that house money poured into my investments, I can afford to!

Garth – keep up the blog. The doses of sanity help me when I start dreaming of granite and stainless…
*************
Almost had me on that one.

I was like “what the fuc7…nah can’t be true, just fuc7en with us” LOL

#29 Donald Trump on 11.17.15 at 7:38 pm

#4 Banking with ISIS on 11.17.15 at 6:44 pm
Yesterday Putin described a convoy of oil tankers stretching to the horizon. At the end of that convoy you will not find a gas station attendant with a money pouch exchanging oil for cash. You will find a cabal of bankers willing to facilitate, for a fee, the exchange oil for weapons, Toyotas, buildings, food and anything else you need to rage war against humanity. Without finance there would be no war. Without bankers there are no terrorists. The enemies of humanity are not suicide bombing muslims or child molesting christians. The enemies of humanity are the bankers. The same vermin blowing Canada’s housing bubble. They are the facilitators of all crimes against humanity.

===========================================

So the solution is to blow up ISIS and their bankers.

#30 Patrick on 11.17.15 at 7:38 pm

#8 Investorz on 11.17.15 at 6:47 pm
Video on BNN:
http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=745497
Advance to 22 minutes.
____________________________
The first minute of the clip is great too.

“I think the Canadian public underestimates the value that the Oil & Gas business and just what we contribute to the economy and to jobs and to the tax base of this country” – O&G Executive

It’s like he is holding back, just wanting to scream: “I can’t believe how stupid you people are”. The whole industry must just be blindsided by the stupidity of Notley and Butts.

#31 Mike in the Okanagan on 11.17.15 at 7:40 pm

“The Fed always tightens in a series of moves”

There are still significant reasons why the Fed may not raise rates given the slow/no growth outside the US and weak commodity prices.

When the Fed does raise rates (particularly if in isolation from other Central Banks) it will raise the US$ causing further headwinds for US exporters.

I think there’s as much of an argument for “one and done” as “a series of moves” at this point.

#32 Gray Man on 11.17.15 at 7:41 pm

#9 Ken Nash
I appreciate this is a real estate and investing pound. Curious what kind of fixes Garth thinks would get the country going? Garth’s Top Ten to get the Canadian economy going again. Then straight back to investing and dismal real estate predictions.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Top Ten to get economy going
1. Shut down Central Bank return power to government to control money.
2. Return to sound money.
3. Tear up all free trade agreements.
There fixed it for you.

#33 conan on 11.17.15 at 7:46 pm

Remember your WW2 spy history? Canada has serious intrepid skills. More bang for the buck there IMHO.
Planes are needed at home for Arctic and domestic.

#34 Roial1 on 11.17.15 at 7:52 pm

#2 gladiator on 11.17.15 at 6:31 pm

Phones are getting smarter and people are getting dumber. It’s a trend. Idiocracy, here we come!

————————————————————-

It is obvious to me that you do not fallow politicians. Especially the far right wingers. It is not “ideology” it is “idiot-ology”101

#35 Zorba on 11.17.15 at 7:58 pm

You call the coming tsunami “Cute”,Garth ?!

#36 April. on 11.17.15 at 8:00 pm

See, the problem with renting in Lotus Land (which we do, because hah, that’s the choice), is renovictions. Very common. Coming next to the beautiful downtown Westend – starting on Davies street and the “character homes in old apartment blocks” are to be torn down to make way for the tall and the taller. (Saw the news article on the weekend, naturally cannot find it now.) So, many of the pre-boomer low-income retirees living frugally in their rental heaven in the Westend are now being told to get themselves to a nursing home and stop bothering the important condo-buying people.

Also: rental carpets? Ew. And: you want a pet? Pshaw.

So, aside from the I’m-an-adult-now myth of home ownership, it is sometimes appealing to think of having the right to rip up the beige yuck off the floor and have a bon-fire with it. Only in a mildy-yearning way, you understand, but nonetheless wistfully.

#37 charles on 11.17.15 at 8:09 pm

Yep, those lowlife Liberals have been crowding into the open houses and spoofing bids to up the house prices. Just because the throne speech hasn’t been read yet everyone knows they are unloading their overpriced dumps on the CMHC since no one plans on paying back the debt anyway. You know there ought to be law.
Lucky we can come here for the facts.

#38 Not tonight honey on 11.17.15 at 8:10 pm

Not tonight honey, I have a headache. My House Horney-ness libido is officially Dead. My husband thanks you Garth, as do our future selves…..I barely even watch the hgtv porn anymore.
Hang in There Calgary Peeps, we’ll be just fine without the granite just as the numerous generations before us.
With Kindness

#39 Drill Baby Drill on 11.17.15 at 8:14 pm

“Why would an anchorette be female? You sound sexist”
I love it, too funny. I was off sick for several days last month and actually watched a local breakfast TV news cast. I was appalled at the obvious lack of testosterone in the male (?) news readers.

#40 Victor V on 11.17.15 at 8:22 pm

The newlyweds had a budget of $650,000, and went house hunting in Lawrence Park. And you can probably guess the rest.

http://torontolife.com/real-estate/houses/the-chase-lawrence-park-newlyweds/

#41 Joblo on 11.17.15 at 8:39 pm

#20 Gray Man

SO True… what George Carlin said what 6 years ago? what’s changed?

The American dream is the Canadian nightmare.

#42 karl hungus on 11.17.15 at 8:40 pm

I find it funny how the last post talked about not expecting things to continue the way they are, ex. vancouver house prices. Yet in the same breath you make fun of people who say “this time its different”. Hypocrisy at its best.

That made no sense. At least you are deadly consistent. — Garth

#43 Freedom First on 11.17.15 at 8:41 pm

#14 Frank

Frank, what Garth said.
You really are a Frankette.

#44 waiting on the westcoast on 11.17.15 at 8:42 pm

The Chase…

Wow – who would have thought neuroscience and law requires some common sense… ;-)

Almost double their initial budget. It does make you wonder how people who have been taught critical thinking and rigorous analysis can still dive in with the best of the greater fools.

#45 OXI in GREECE on 11.17.15 at 8:47 pm

Speaking of zombies….how is that BOMBardier investment working out? Let’s see….we are only 1.7 BILLION in the hole as taxpayers…

But its all about jobs right? Because when you are rich and are hiring lots of people…you can steal from the taxpayer. When you are a shop of 18 professional high techies….and you need help…..your shit out of luck sorry.

But hey…nothing like “buying votes and jobs” to keep people happy…..

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/aaron-wudrick/more-taxpayer-money-for-b_b_8483204.html

#46 Ret on 11.17.15 at 8:48 pm

#10 “WITH THE GROWING NUMBER OF BOOMERS, THERE NEEDS MORE YOUNG PEOPLE TO PAY FOR ALL THE HEALTHCARE AND PENSION COSTS”

Filling up the country with young people who can’t find jobs and pay taxes won’t work.

The old economic models don’t work anymore. We need to adapt to the new realities.

The world has changed. Canada hasn’t. We have a problem.

#47 OXI in GREECE on 11.17.15 at 8:49 pm

#29 Donald Trump on 11.17.15 at 7:38 pm
#4 Banking with ISIS on 11.17.15 at 6:44 pm
Yesterday Putin described a convoy of oil tankers stretching to the horizon. At the end of that convoy you will not find a gas station attendant with a money pouch exchanging oil for cash. You will find a cabal of bankers willing to facilitate, for a fee, the exchange oil for weapons, Toyotas, buildings, food and anything else you need to rage war against humanity. Without finance there would be no war. Without bankers there are no terrorists. The enemies of humanity are not suicide bombing muslims or child molesting christians. The enemies of humanity are the bankers. The same vermin blowing Canada’s housing bubble. They are the facilitators of all crimes against humanity.

===========================================

So the solution is to blow up ISIS and their bankers.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Yes because the bankers that keep funding invasion after invasion enabling these young terrorists….they are too big to jail afterall…..

#48 Freedom First on 11.17.15 at 8:55 pm

#26 Andrew

Might be a good idea to go see a Dr. or two. I would recommend both an Opthomoligist, and a Proctologist. You either have eye trouble, or, you are full of it.

#49 Gray Man on 11.17.15 at 8:56 pm

Here is how I live my life;
If the government says something is good for me I do the opposite .
Working out well so far.
Believe nothing you hear and only half of what you see.

#50 For those about to flop... on 11.17.15 at 9:05 pm

Canadians had a tough choice at the last election.
Do I vote for the tyrant?
Do I vote for the Status symbol?
Do I vote for the guy who failed smiling class?

We went with the Status symbol and the honeymoon didn’t last very long.
There is a huge difference between being a celebrity and being a leader of a nation.
People on this blog say Canada is not that important on the world stage ,maybe in the past not so much.
Other countries might not be to worried what the average Canadian is up to but they want our resources and so Canada’s importance on the world stage will only increase as time goes by.
It’s time to stop giving stuff away ( water) for cents on the dollar and make other nations pay full price for Canada’s resources.
You want it? Sure but it’s gonna cost ya.

#51 Retired WI Boomer on 11.17.15 at 9:07 pm

Time for interest rates to expand, and let us have a nice 2007 style value melt, shall we?

I am rather sick of seeing the market in a trading range with commodities in the basement. Time for something to shake up the markets, like an unforeseen earthquake, or a burp from the Yellowstone caldera.

While I force nothing coming from nature, except the west coast drought-a-thon we need some action!!

Time for money to have some value.

#52 Shawn on 11.17.15 at 9:07 pm

Will the BOC raise with the FED in Dec or hold once or twice?

No hike here until well into 2016. Fixed mortgages will rise anyway. — Garth

#53 bdy sktrn on 11.17.15 at 9:12 pm

#48 Freedom First on 11.17.15 at 8:55 pm
#26 Andrew

Might be a good idea to go see a Dr. or two.
————————–
yeah man go see a doc. FF is the leading authority on 604 market, as he sits somewhere in some cow pasture is farmsville AB , he has the best view of vancouver don’t ya know?

imagine owing multiple properties mtg free in 604. 20% y/y.

ff says sell – i buy. a winning formula.

#54 Mark on 11.17.15 at 9:17 pm

“If history repeats itself, Canadian banks like National Bank may get hit again.”

Oh probably in the short term. But guess what happened with the big Canadian banks, 1990-2000? They mostly tripled and quadrupled. Only Paul Martin’s rejection of bank mergers and being eclipsed by the US tech bubble slowed them down in the late 1990s.

Go look at the charts of the era. The performance of Canada’s banks, in an environment of real estate declines, was nothing less than spectacular. This doesn’t mean that the banks can’t/won’t suffer in the short term, but owning mortgage bonds and mortgages is likely to be a far more profitable venture than owning houses. Especially as risk premia rises on account of diminishing credit-worthiness amongst Canadians, and many Credit Unions run into serious problems on account of being especially reckless lenders. Particularly to housing-levered small business.

#55 Drill Baby Drill on 11.17.15 at 9:19 pm

“Justin Trudeau formally commits to lifting visa requirement for Mexicans”
Announcement just made without consultation with his cabinet nor the parliament only got permission from PM Wynne.
The Harper gov’nt put the visa restrictions in place in 2009 because for the cost of a 1 way airline ticket on Aero Mexico you could land in Canada an claim refugee status. 10,000 a year were doing this.

#56 Mark on 11.17.15 at 9:19 pm

“Will the BOC raise with the FED in Dec or hold once or twice?”

I personally expect them to drop the policy rate another 25bp at the next meeting. The weakness in the Canadian economy certainly justifies such. As housing prices continue to decelerate, they probably will be right down to zero if not negative. Just like nearly every other economy which has suffered a housing crash.

The current government, which came to power on an austerity platform ($10B deficits versus Harper’s actual $20B annualized deficits) probably won’t help on the aggregate demand side of things either.

#57 TurnerNation on 11.17.15 at 9:28 pm

I imagine shocking EU news will continue, until the carbon taxes are signed.
At home, stories about Kanadians running off to join a certain group overseas ended with the election.

How the game is played.

#58 Rexx Rock on 11.17.15 at 9:32 pm

Toronto and Vancouver are Canada’s land of milk and honey.Wage growth and a booming economy is why Albertans are moving to these cities.Houses are still selling because its still affordable to buy.

#59 bubu on 11.17.15 at 9:33 pm

If the prices in Calgary and Edmonton didn’t go down at least 10%, nothing will crash the real estate in Canada… I don’t know the logic, if there is any but when the oil goes down 60%, lots of jobs are gone … I don’t know what to say… Except the hit on the number of sales I don’t see any problem with the real estate… some people will sale later when market will get back so no worries…

#60 Julie K. on 11.17.15 at 9:37 pm

Hell, Garth. Sometimes, when I read you, a wave of gratitude, followed by a larger wave of nausea, washes over me.

That’s what all the girls say. — Garth

#61 Smoking Man on 11.17.15 at 9:37 pm

Just when you thought our environmentalist friends couldn’t become any more absurd, they have to go and outdo themselves. The editor of the Ecologist, Westminster and Oxford educated Oliver Tickell, son of the equally silly and equally posh Crispin Tickell (also Westminster and Oxford), has just written a post arguing that the Paris terrorist attacks were intended to disrupt the COP21 climate talks, driving up oil prices and putting petrodollars in the pockets of ISIS. Oh yes, and western oil interests were probably in on it too.

Fkn Tree Hugger hilarious.

http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2015/11/14/looney-green-tunes.html/.

#62 Drill Baby Drill on 11.17.15 at 9:48 pm

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2015/11/17/video-turkey-fans-boo-moment-of-silence-for-paris-attacks-then-break-out-into-this-chant/Allahu Akbar

PM Wynne’s new boy Justin’s new found friends in Turkey, you know the ones, they were all taking selfies with him in Antalya, Turkey

#63 omg the original on 11.17.15 at 9:49 pm

Yesterday I told you the reason someone would buy something for twice the price of a few years ago – because they fear it will go higher.
———————

True, but its also the whole “ANCHORING EFFECT” thing.

People in cities like YVR, YYC, TO and Victoria have seen RIDICULOUS house prices for so long that it becomes the “new normal”.

They will pay $1.0mm for a 3 bdrm bungalow in YVR or TO because that is what they have gotten “USED TO”. It is the PRICE ANCHOR that our tiny little ape minds cling to, to make sense of the world.

It takes a long time to move the ANCHOR down – especially in housing where people will sell their left n*t before taking a loss on their house.

PRICE ANCHORING is also why so many US housing markets in cities with much better economies and much better prospects ares still far below price in YVR or TO (like Chicago, Seattle, Portland, San Diego…..). because buyers in these markets are ANCHORED at a much lower base.

#64 Smoking Man on 11.17.15 at 9:50 pm

On February 4th, 2013, Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, addressed the Duma,
(Russian Parliament), and gave a speech about the tensions with minorities in Russia:

“In Russia live Russians. Any minority, from anywhere, if it wants to live in Russia, to work and eat in Russia, should speak Russian, and should respect the Russian laws. If they prefer Shari ‘a Law, then we advise them to go to those places where that’s the state law. Russia does not need minorities. Minorities need Russia, and we will not grant them special privileges, or try to change our laws to fit their desires, no matter how loud they yell ‘discrimination’.
……

Obviously he read art of war, and is not a signatory to Cultural Marxism..

My call, huge back lash on the liberal Marxist very soon..

#65 Freedom First on 11.17.15 at 9:53 pm

#53 bdy sktrn

Judging by your posts I think you are most likely unbalanced. Don’t despair. No one is ever to old to learn.

#66 worldly on 11.17.15 at 9:57 pm

Spoke with some friends I have seen in a while, both divorced and renting. They are in their late 50’s, they see no reason to own and have tons of money. They are enjoying the mobility even in middle age and see no reason to own. Between the millennials preferring to rent and the middle aged moving towards this trend, who are homeowners going to sell to?

#67 For those about to flop... on 11.17.15 at 10:04 pm

About a month ago I was shocked to see this house for sale in Cresent beach area asking 1.2 million.
Today on my way to work a big SOLD sticker on the sign
Wow ,is all I can say.Must have some good B.C bud out that way.

http://www.google.ca/imgres?imgurl=http://assets1.rew.ca/property/image/F1449549/12428-25th-avenue-surrey-7242_261961164-1443960-0_lightbox.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.rew.ca/properties/F1449549/12428-25th-avenue-surrey&h=384&w=640&tbnid=n0Yo9ybm7Ap8XM:&docid=TGsexI7ukbNM8M&hl=en&ei=FNtLVpDnL8_7oQTMvZSABg&tbm=isch&client=safari&ved=0CCMQMygIMAhqFQoTCJDBp73vmMkCFc99iAodzB4FYA

#68 Smoking Man on 11.17.15 at 10:06 pm

#66 worldly on 11.17.15 at 9:57 pm
Spoke with some friends I have seen in a while, both divorced and renting. They are in their late 50’s, they see no reason to own and have tons of money. They are enjoying the mobility even in middle age and see no reason to own. Between the millennials preferring to rent and the middle aged moving towards this trend, who are homeowners going to sell to?

Mexicans, reference #55 Drill Baby Drill on 11.17.15 at 9:19 pm

Now that pot is going to be legalized, they know how to grow the good shit..Trust me.

Lots of loot to take up the slack..

#69 GB on 11.17.15 at 10:09 pm

“.. Vancouver, those poor people who live beyond the rocks, spend all day on Twitter and find out who won elections before they actually vote.”

I almost died of laughter with that line.

#70 Leo Trollstoy on 11.17.15 at 10:12 pm

To prevent the tears of despair, avoid investing in real estate, gold and the CAD.

#71 Smoking Man on 11.17.15 at 10:17 pm

ISIS has stoked the wrath of Putin.

Receiving confirmation from the head of the FSB that the Metrojet over Sinai was indeed downed by a bomb, a somber but furious Putin spoke to the Russian people about the coming vengeance.

‘The murder of our people in Sinai is one of the bloodiest in terms of the number of victims of such crimes. We won’t easily wipe away the tears in our hearts and souls. It will stay with us forever. But that will not prevent us from finding and punishing the perpetrators. We should not apply any time limits. We need to know all the perpetrators by name. We will search for them everywhere – wherever they are hiding. We will find them in any spot on the planet and we will punish them’, said a very serious-looking Putin.

And as if this dire warning wasn’t enough, the enraged president vowed to ratchet up the strikes in Syria so that ‘the criminals understand that revenge is unavoidable.’

This is the harshest language Putin has used since he promised to kill Chechens in the ‘shithouse’ when he served as FSB director.

Combine all of this with the FSB offering $50 million for information on the perpetrators, and it looks like ISIS and its affiliates are set to reap the whirlwind.
…….

Who doesn’t love this guy, I’m really starting to appreciate Obama.. stands down, lip service to the Neocons. Lets Putin do dirty work…

Bonus, NutAndYahoo get arrested if he set foot in Spain..

Neocons are going down.. building 7 bitches…Isis, and Ukraine. You woke up a sleeping bear, idiots.

Tide is turning…

Finally.

#72 AB Boxster on 11.17.15 at 10:25 pm

Thanks to all for a very funny blog and comments today.
With so much bad news recently, its easy to forget to laugh.
Keep up the good work.

#73 Washed Up Lawyer on 11.17.15 at 10:26 pm

Off topic again. If the Syrian couple I do business with at their combined dry cleaning/seamstress/shoe repair shop a couple of blocks from my house in Cowtown is at all representative of the refugees we could extend a hand to, then the number should be 50,000. Beautiful people, beautiful Canadians.

#74 worldly on 11.17.15 at 10:30 pm

#66 worldly on 11.17.15 at 9:57 pm
Spoke with some friends I have seen in a while, both divorced and renting. They are in their late 50’s, they see no reason to own and have tons of money. They are enjoying the mobility even in middle age and see no reason to own. Between the millennials preferring to rent and the middle aged moving towards this trend, who are homeowners going to sell to?

Mexicans, reference #55 Drill Baby Drill on 11.17.15 at 9:19 pm

Now that pot is going to be legalized, they know how to grow the good shit..Trust me.

Lots of loot to take up the slack..

Of course all those houses can be grow ops!!

#75 Smoking Man on 11.17.15 at 10:33 pm

#73 Washed Up Lawyer on 11.17.15 at 10:26 pm
Off topic again. If the Syrian couple I do business with at their combined dry cleaning/seamstress/shoe repair shop a couple of blocks from my house in Cowtown is at all representative of the refugees we could extend a hand to, then the number should be 50,000. Beautiful people, beautiful Canadians.
….

99% of the people in the world are good people, but when a small band of Demented criminals get to drive the boat. Hence the results.

Everybody knows the captain lied..

Lenord Cohen, such a visionary.

Everybody knows that the dice are loaded
Everybody rolls with their fingers crossed
Everybody knows that the war is over
Everybody knows the good guys lost
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich
That’s how it goes
Everybody knows
Everybody knows that the boat is leaking
Everybody knows that the captain lied
Everybody got this broken feeling
Like their father or their dog just died

Everybody talking to their pockets
Everybody wants a box of chocolates
And a long stem rose
Everybody knows

Everybody knows that you love me baby
Everybody knows that you really do
Everybody knows that you’ve been faithful
Ah give or take a night or two
Everybody knows you’ve been discreet
But there were so many people you just had to meet
Without your clothes
And everybody knows

Everybody knows, everybody knows
That’s how it goes
Everybody knows

Everybody knows, everybody knows
That’s how it goes
Everybody knows

And everybody knows that it’s now or never
Everybody knows that it’s me or you
And everybody knows that you live forever
Ah when you’ve done a line or two
Everybody knows the deal is rotten
Old Black Joe’s still pickin’ cotton
For your ribbons and bows
And everybody knows

And everybody knows that the Plague is coming
Everybody knows that it’s moving fast
Everybody knows that the naked man and woman
Are just a shining artifact of the past
Everybody knows the scene is dead
But there’s gonna be a meter on your bed
That will disclose
What everybody knows

And everybody knows that you’re in trouble
Everybody knows what you’ve been through
From the bloody cross on top of Calvary
To the beach of Malibu
Everybody knows it’s coming apart
Take one last look at this Sacred Heart
Before it blows
And everybody knows

Everybody knows, everybody knows
That’s how it goes
Everybody knows

Oh everybody knows, everybody knows
That’s how it goes
Everybody knows

Everybody knows

#76 Harbour on 11.17.15 at 10:35 pm

Listen to the definition of bigotry on a CNN interview

https://www.facebook.com/issambayanofficial/videos/731193436971783/

#77 J on 11.17.15 at 10:41 pm

There’s something off with CREB’s stats. There are 1,272 new listings in Calgary month-to-date and only 697 sales. You would think active listings would go up by 575, right?

Well active listings month-over-month have increased by only 37. What happened to the other 538 listings? Were these listings taken off the market unsold? This represents approximately 10% of all listings. Leads to me think owners are not getting the prices they want and if they were sold at market prices, owners would be underwater.

#78 Bingo on 11.17.15 at 10:48 pm

Post #18 Chris hit the nail on the head!

#79 Armando on 11.17.15 at 10:52 pm

Much of what Garth says about the real estate market (i.e. “Worth is determined by things like replacement cost, what cash flow that asset could generate…In contrast, value is set by the market – sometimes made up of demented, inexperienced bidders”) applies just as well to the stock market. Funny money and manipulated interest rates have also worked their magic on P/E ratios and corporate margins, and it won’t last forever either!

Oft stated, always incorrect. — Garth

#80 common sense on 11.17.15 at 10:56 pm

#75 Smoking Man;

And hopefully Democracy is Coming to the USA…

#81 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.17.15 at 11:02 pm

@#170 Bdy Skytrn
“pleask kindly [email protected] off with your bogus, hyper PC pinkshirted shrieks of racism.

crybaby.

there was nothing racist whatsoever in that comment.

you’d best learn what racism is before making a total fool of yourself here.”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

My my. Arent we a tad “touchy”.
Nice to know racists are also vulgarian hotheads.
Let me guess. You have an “East Van “cross tattooed on your arm.
Totally ignored my comment to you and jumped in to save “Iknow Nothing”.
Must not have sold your house yet? Or are you still bragging about its estimated “worth”? Or are you too busy counting the “asian hordes’ in “your” enclave.
Dont like East Van ? Move to “Little Rhodesia” aka Boundary Bay. Apparently the last “white” bastion south of the Fraser…..
No need to thank me mein herr, just click your heels.

#82 Hirsute hipster, head down, texting on 11.17.15 at 11:03 pm

Sorry Garth, could you please repeat tonight’s post. I’ve been busy checking my tinder account, lots of right-swiping tonight, if you know what I mean ;)

#83 BC Guy on 11.17.15 at 11:06 pm

Prices here in BC are as ridiculously expensive as ever. In my rural area with thousands and thousands of houses, farms and acreages, I did an MLS search “house with acreage” (a house with more than 1 acre of land). One run-down house and one cabin shows up. That’s it.

The idea that Canada has “so much land” is misleading. 95% of the land in BC is unavailable for sale (owned by natives, the crown and the 1%). The land which is available, is ultra-expensive.

As I walk around various neighbourhoods, many houses seem vacant. No doubt many rich people owning two or three homes, while the average Joe-bag-of-donuts can’t afford a basic house.

Time to move to Nova Scotia or the US or South America.

#84 Nagraj on 11.17.15 at 11:07 pm

No two ways about it, that photo of the spilled ice cream was the worst yet! It bespeaks sexual dysfunction. And death.

Consider if you will Wallace Steven’s 1922 poem THE EMPEROR OF ICE CREAM, here’s a few lines:

“Call the roller of big cigars,
The muscular one, and bid him whip
In kitchen cups concupiscent curds.

. . .

The only emperor is the emperor of ice cream.”

– the material setting: they’re makin’ ice cream at home at a wake for a lady who did a lot of walking –
The operative word is “concupiscence”. Ice cream IS concupiscence.
Well, it’s on the floor of the car (id est, vehicular ego) and “kick the bucket” works too.

call the rider of big harleys
the manly one, and bid him whip
cream in a chilled bowl with care
lest –

(I must now turn my attention to “anchorettes”.)

P.S.
WHERE IS NORA LENDERBY?

#85 Smoking Man on 11.17.15 at 11:09 pm

The don’t give a shit gene starts here.

https://youtu.be/ZZGo6mWjk4Y

#86 Leo Trollstoy on 11.17.15 at 11:10 pm

Dr. Doom changed his tune. No U.S. recession

http://www.cnbc.com/id/103176105

Totally agree.

Also agree that the Fed hikes late.

Dunno when.

But gold and the CAD go deeper into the crapper after

#87 Washed Up Lawyer on 11.17.15 at 11:11 pm

But then, I have a built in bias.

Two of four grandparents were Russian Jews from the Ukraine who risked it all in 1919 to come here after the Russian Revolution.

The other two grandparents were English and Irish.

My wife calls me the “Irishman from Jerusalem”. I kind of like it. The great pageantry of Canada.

Have no fear.

#88 Hirsute Hipster, head down, texting... on 11.17.15 at 11:12 pm

Oh, I get it…cute…that’s a pic of me today! Where’d you take that? Who’s the girl? Looks cute, too. So hard to meet anyone like that in real life. That’s why I use Tinder and Plenty of Fish so much, but it takes hours daily, so no social life for me most evenings.

Oh well, these are the things you gotta do these days……it’s about connecting…you boomers wouldn’t understand :(

#89 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.17.15 at 11:16 pm

@#159 Ralph Cramdown
“#144 crowdedelevatorfartz — “Stats? Rather than “heresay evidence” rumour. To back up your racism….”

We don’t need stats. This may seem an outlandish claim, but follow along:

1) There are a lot of new multimillionaires in China. You won’t dispute that, I trust?

2) A lot of them are worried about their wealth, either because of a corruption investigation (you don’t need to be corrupt, just to be or have backed the loser in a party power struggle), or a collapse in the Yuan or the Chinese economy, which features massive debts and many businesses that can’t service them from cash flow. This is documented in the international business press, if the gyrations of the mainland stock market isn’t enough evidence for you. No argument here, I hope?

3) Canada has no restrictions on foreign real estate ownership (unlike some other overseas destinations), banks willing and able to structure transactions to evade Chinese capital export controls, and very weak anti-money laundering controls — Lawyers are not required to report, and real estate brokers simply don’t bother, with minimal enforcement and few repercussions. This, too, is documented, as are discoveries of large quantities of cash at Vancouver and Pearson airports, coming from China. No disagreement here, I trust?

If you’re willing to concede the above three points, the rest of the argument follows logically. “Stats, or it didn’t happen” is a poor retort. Unless you believe that Richmond has the lowest median and average household income in the GVR[1], and that one in four children in Richmond is living in poverty[2], in which case I can’t help you.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Sorry Ralph but you lost me after.

“We dont need stats”…….

#90 Mark on 11.17.15 at 11:26 pm

“. Funny money and manipulated interest rates have also worked their magic on P/E ratios and corporate margins, and it won’t last forever either!”

A lot of it depends upon what stock markets and what asset classes you’re talking about. For example, in Canada, there are entire sectors that trade at a fraction of their replacement cost. Particularly in the mining sector, but also in the railways, manufacturing, and even in the IT sector. Individual companies may go bankrupt along the way, but it very unlikely that entire sectors critical to Canada’s economy will be wiped out. Therefore, one has to take a longer view towards investment recognizing that some sectors are highly cyclical over the long term.

Grave investing mistakes can be made by generalizing the experience or the statistics related to one stock or a group of stocks over the entire stock market, or the entire investment universe. Garth is correct in advising against the ills of one-asset strategies and extreme views on future value of business ownership. Proper diversification is important. Most people don’t have the guts to take a pure contrarian approach, so diversification with broad index funds is the next best thing.

#91 Smoking Man on 11.17.15 at 11:28 pm

If you desire to find the truth, about et.

Drive in the dessert.. Rachel Navada

This song is orgasmic

https://youtu.be/Z-0lGiLZj48

#92 Maple Leafin on a Jet plane on 11.17.15 at 11:32 pm

Let’s see, should I buy a $1m crack shack in the six, or pick up a beach home for about 1/4th the price in paradise? Garth, help me decide…

https://www.yahoo.com/travel/affordable-dream-house-top-10-beach-towns-for-084744401.html

#93 Mark on 11.17.15 at 11:34 pm

“This, too, is documented, as are discoveries of large quantities of cash at Vancouver and Pearson airports, coming from China. No disagreement here, I trust?”

Plenty of disagreement. Cash seizures at the major airports in quantities sufficient to buy housing outright are practically unheard of. Additionally, the housing bubble is fully explainable within the framework of the amount of leverage taken on by domestic Canadian citizen actors. Foreign money would actually have the effect of reducing leverage. Which, given that the leverage of Canadian families is practically at record levels, has little support in the evidence.

The statistics of less than 5% of housing in the GVR/GTA being purchased by foreign buyers seem fairly accurate to me. Most of the evidence to the contrary is usually anecdotal at best, often derived from individuals who do not define someone as being of non-European ethnicity as being a “Canadian”. Some of it, as in the case of that RE developer who hired a PR firm to concoct “Chinese” demand, are absolutely disgusting fabrications.

#94 genbizx on 11.17.15 at 11:36 pm

Why no offers to take in refugees by rich middle eastern nations like saudi, uae, dubai, qatar, kuwait, bahrain, oman?

How about Japan (struggling with ultra low birthrates) South Korea, Singapore, Russia etc. ?

What a crapfest..

#95 Mark on 11.17.15 at 11:44 pm

“3) Canada has no restrictions on foreign real estate ownership (unlike some other overseas destinations), ”

This isn’t true either. There are plenty of restrictions on foreign real estate ownership in Canada. Particularly concerning farmland.

2) A lot of them are worried about their wealth, either because of a corruption investigation (you don’t need to be corrupt, just to be or have backed the loser in a party power struggle), or a collapse in the Yuan or the Chinese economy

Most of the wealth of the Chinese rich isn’t in bank accounts, but is rather, tied up in (increasingly illiquid) investments in factories and other assets which can’t exactly be traded for Canadian housing. The thing to keep in mind is that China’s rich mostly got there through hard work and investing wisely. Not by throwing money away by investing in some of the world’s most pricey residential real estate. China’s wealthy, extremely successful investors, are amongst the last people one would expect to invest in Canada’s massively overpriced real estate bubble.

#96 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.17.15 at 11:45 pm

@#18 Chris and #78 Thats a Bingo!
“only 2 cities immigrants would want to live in, now Calgary is off the list. That is Toronto and Vancouver. Sad reality but true….”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Soooo I guess french only Haitians are flocking to 403 and 604 because Montreal said Non merci?

Bdy Skytrn? Feel free to jump in with some intellectually stimulating vulgarity at any time…….

#97 Smoking Man on 11.17.15 at 11:45 pm

#80 common sense on 11.17.15 at 10:56 pm
#75 Smoking Man;

And hopefully Democracy is Coming to the USA…

Not a chance.

https://youtu.be/wCoGs0R2nDs

#98 smallernbetter on 11.17.15 at 11:47 pm

#18 Chris on 11.17.15 at 7:15 pm
Canadian and Australian housing prices are crazy. And they reflect mass immigration and the limit of so few cities that the majority of the inflow population like to settle in. I mean you cannot expect a new immigrant to Canada to start their life in peterborough or some small city like that. The whole Canada has only 2 cities immigrants would want to live in, now Calgary is off the list. That is Toronto and Vancouver. Sad reality but true.”

What’s wrong with Peterborough….dem’s fightin’ words bro’…though I note that a mosque was burnt down there, so you could be right….

#99 Drill Baby Drill on 11.17.15 at 11:48 pm

The asking prices for homes in Calgary will begin to drop precipitously once X-mas is done. Many have been on EI benefits and or buy-outs and or credit card and overdrafts.

#100 freedom or bust on 11.17.15 at 11:51 pm

Give a man a fish feed him once, teach a man to fish…yadayada

Finally some words of wisdom from Poland and the chance to help these displaced Syrians to return to their homeland and fight for freedom and democracy instead of become welfare cases

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/syrian-refugees-should-be-trained-into-an-army-to-fight-isis-polands-foreign-minister-says-a6736776.html

#101 Moses71 on 11.17.15 at 11:51 pm

As a Torontonian for 39 yrs until 5yrs ago in Calgary, the Syrians should come to Calgary.
There’s tons of money here. Must be. Otherwise they wouldn’t be subsidizing millionaires for assisted living and LTC, for instance
Show Calgary what tolerance is about and maybe they’ll learn to be less prejudiced and fearful. Very backwards here compared to what I’m used to and know.
And for the cowhead oil mentality, couldn’t be a better time to actually be creative and innovative to come up with some industries which will futuristically sustain this downhill economy
Slippery slope here.
Patting myself on the back I never caved and bought a McMansion here

#102 Sheane Wallace on 11.17.15 at 11:52 pm

#63 omg the original

Price anchoring in our real estate? What are you smoking?
Prices will go down 50-70 % one way or another – in absolute value and/or combined with inflation.

And nobody will care about it, the world will just mark our extraordinary stupidity as they did with Ireland.

#103 Dave on 11.17.15 at 11:56 pm

I actually think Hamilton is the hottest RE market in all of Canada right now. Probably has been for the past few years…

#104 freedom or bust on 11.18.15 at 12:18 am

#101 POSSIBLE REFUGEE SOLUTION on 11.16.15 at 10:41 pm

Use a coalition of Professional Statesmen and Bureaucrats from several respected Nations to form a benevolent dictatorship possibly headed by the experts in that type of government… Singapore. ( Singapore is the most successful nation at merging different nationalities and religions into communities)….

Oh great, a bunch a dictators who cane people for chewing gum, trying to reform the world….just what is needed….

#105 Nemesis on 11.18.15 at 12:19 am

#ZombieMischiefForHeterodoxEconomists…

[SCMP] – People in 15 countries took part in two tests in which they had a financial incentive to cheat…

…”The countries studied – Brazil, China, Greece, Japan, Russia, Switzerland, Turkey, the United States, Argentina, Denmark, Britain, India, Portugal, South Africa, and South Korea – were chosen to provide a mix of regions, levels of development and levels of social trust.

Based on the results, the study’s lead author, Dr David Hugh-Jones, a senior lecturer in the university’s school of economics, noted that people’s honesty was related to the rate of economic growth of their countries, with those from poor countries less honest than those from rich ones. However, this relationship was stronger for economic growth that took place before 1950…

People expected Greece to be the least honest country, but in the coin flip it was one of the most honest, while in the quiz it ranked in the middle. Of the respondents who expected less honesty in their own country, Greece and China were the most pessimistic.”…

http://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/article/1879850/chinese-most-dishonest-japanese-and-british-least-study-finds

#106 Drill Baby Drill on 11.18.15 at 12:30 am

#101 Moses
You are without a doubt a moron.

#107 bubu on 11.18.15 at 12:35 am

Drill Baby Drill , dream on… if the prices didn’t drop yet don’t expect it after x-mas.

#108 Moses71 on 11.18.15 at 12:41 am

#104
Moving to people to Calgary wouldn’t be a punishment. Hope that is not what you mean.
Just an enlightenment
After what I hear behind closed executive doors, the fear here of immigration is offensive.
Calgary has money still, and still affordable with the downside of prices of housing from the oil dependent-only city
And there’s money to spend, obviously

#109 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.18.15 at 12:53 am

When they poured across the border
I was cautioned to surrender,
this I could not do;
I took my gun and vanished.
I have changed my name so often,
I’ve lost my wife and children
but I have many friends,
and some of them are with me.

An old woman gave us shelter,
kept us hidden in the garret,
then the soldiers came;
she died without a whisper.

There were three of us this morning
I’m the only one this evening
but I must go on;
the frontiers are my prison.

Oh, the wind, the wind is blowing,
through the graves the wind is blowing,
freedom soon will come;
then we’ll come from the shadows.

Les Allemands étaient chez moi (The Germans were at my home)
ils m’ont dit “Résigne-toi” (They said, “Surrender,”)
mais je n’ai pas pu (this I could not do)
j’ai repris mon arme (I took my weapon again)

J’ai changé cent fois de nom (I have

Smoking Man,
According to your story, your father was a Serbian Partisan fighting under Tito.
He was very lucky not to be caught by the Germans.
I don’t care for your comments to much, but your love for music and Leonard Cohen is obvious.
So here we go:
When they poured across the border
I was cautioned to surrender,
this I could not do;
I took my gun and vanished.
I have changed my name so often,
I’ve lost my wife and children
but I have many friends,
and some of them are with me.

An old woman gave us shelter,
kept us hidden in the garret,
then the soldiers came;
she died without a whisper.

There were three of us this morning
I’m the only one this evening
but I must go on;
the frontiers are my prison.

Oh, the wind, the wind is blowing,
through the graves the wind is blowing,
freedom soon will come;
then we’ll come from the shadows.

Les Allemands étaient chez moi (The Germans were at my home)
ils m’ont dit “Résigne-toi” (They said, “Surrender,”)
mais je n’ai pas pu (this I could not do)
j’ai repris mon arme (I took my weapon again)

J’ai changé cent fois de nom (I have changed names a hundred times)
j’ai perdu femme et enfants (I have lost wife and children)
mais j’ai tant d’amis (But I have so many friends)
j’ai la France entière (I have all of France)

Un vieil homme dans un grenier (An old man, in an attic)
pour la nuit nous a cachés (Hid us for the night)
les Allemands l’ont pris (The Germans captured him)
il est mort sans surprise (He died without surprise)

Oh, the wind, the wind is blowing,
through the graves the wind is blowing,
freedom soon will come;
then we’ll come from the shadows.

il est mort sans surprise (He died without surprise)

Oh, the wind, the wind is blowing,
through the graves the wind is blowing,
freedom soon will come;
J

#110 mousy on 11.18.15 at 1:04 am

Big hairy deal…so the markets experiencing the biggest declines are retreating – what – less than 5% price declines. After double digit increases over the last 5 years. Ok, so if you bought last year, maybe not so good. If you bought a few years ago, or many years ago, or plan to hold for several years, then go back to your tea and cookies, just ride it out.

#111 Great Canadian Bubble Co. on 11.18.15 at 1:50 am

The argument that Vancouver and Toronto will not see massive declines does seem reasonable. I travel extensively and every country I go to I get the same response. “Oh you’re Canadian? My brother (father, uncle, cousin, aunt) moved there. I am planning on going too in a few years.” These are the two cities most cited.

The last individual I spoke to was an energetic Filipino student. I sometimes feel bad knowing just how expensive Canada can be, and how misinformed some are about the Canadian ‘dream’, but this guy had is head on straight. “I am studying elderly care/home care. I hear there is a big need for this in Canada.”

I think he will do fine.

#112 family beagle on 11.18.15 at 2:11 am

Hi, I’ve never seen a business case study for real estate (cost of goods sold/market size/product-price-place-promo/income stat/balance sheet/roi/whatever)
I know there’s flow chart in my old Business101 text from college, but it’s in the garage somewhere. I’m sure there’s someone out there who can throw out the numbers in a couple columns so it’s clear as a bell whether price support and product supply are hitting the timing window. Do construction co’s have business managers? What does industry data look like for cost/per? Is there a healthy margin to buy land/build/sell?

Reading media, I see anecdotals, pitches, ideologies, cost of living estimates, nothing that succinctly sets out a basic C+ term paper that meets rule of thumb. Just speculation and ‘dire warnings’. It would be nice to see the lab results. Somebody must be doing this for RE?

Maybe boiled down to an equation…

New builds plus pre-owns divided by downy qualified lookie loo monthly carry approvals.

Plug in data and out pops accurate risk analysis, same like a corner store or tire manufacturer uses. So using equation above, currently we (604) are simmering in the 1.12 level zombifer scale. RE death watch alarm goes off at 1.25. Calgary would be 1.63 and climbing.

Scale:
1000 units/500 market buyers = 2
1000 units/2000 market buyers = .5

#113 saskatoon on 11.18.15 at 2:12 am

“France: saudi arabia’s new arms dealer”

http://www.nationalinterest.org/feature/france-saudi-arabias-new-arms-dealer-13533

“Arms sales becoming France’s new El Dorado, but at what cost?”

http://www.france24.com/en/20150503-arms-sales-becoming-france-new-el-dorado-but-what-cost-francois-hollande-saudi-arabia-rafale

“Massive EU Weapons Sales to Saudi Arabia Contribute to Fuelling International Aggression and Terrorism in the Middle East”

http://www.globalresearch.ca/massive-eu-weapons-sales-to-saudi-arabia-contribute-to-fuelling-international-aggression-and-terrorism-in-the-middle-east/29881

the first time in history…

when an attacker invites millions of recently and continually bombed “enemies” into their own country/area–and pays for the enemy transition with forced citizenry taxation.

#114 juno on 11.18.15 at 2:24 am

The smart money knew…..

Crea can only slap so much lipstick on a pig before it starts looking like a clown

Now even CREA fabricated numbers can’t hide the truth, I believe the numbers are worst, but even franken numbers are showing signs of the truth.

Once this set in
what real estate and global has been telling is all BShit
a) interest rates are already creeping up. When GIC are starting to match your mortgage rates you know there is something wrong

b) houses can go down. If it dies 35% ++ over 5 years is that a soft landing? Many lost everything due to bad real estate investments.

c) Rent is better..Hummm look at the states, most won’t even touch real estate now.

d) Once CMHC goes down and all these firms giving out cheap mortgage dries us.. Then mabey lending practices will go back to normal. Where a postal code check doesn’t entitle you to a million dollar mortgage loan

#115 David on 11.18.15 at 2:51 am

Zombie does not sound encouraging, but it is probably closest to the truth. A dramatic earth shaking financial collapse like the US housing market circa 2006-2008 does not appear likely. It is looking like a life time of debt indenture and beans on toast for McMansion owners.

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/11/16/foreign-investors-dump-canadian-money-machine/

#116 AB Boxster on 11.18.15 at 2:59 am

#101 Moses
As a lifelong Albertan I am happy to support your freedom to speak your mind.
Now don’t let the door hit you in the ass when you head back to Tarana.

#117 Tony on 11.18.15 at 3:00 am

One thing that doesn’t change from history is “the average person dies broke”. Now we look at the clueless in the Toronto area and next to no one lists their house for sale. The market has already peaked and all the people will make the same mistake and everyone will list at the same time with no buyers in sight. History will once again repeat.

#118 family beagle on 11.18.15 at 3:03 am

To further…
Maybe a RE agent could make the pitch… elimate a few variables showing the “investment potential” advertised. Quantify some data on market size: number of average waged less debt payments, equals number of people who can meet average mortgage criteria. Compare that to available average product at the average price. #market demographics #price support #cost of goods sold.

You could do one up as a little real time widget in the corner of your header… Look, Garth’s gauge has gone chartreuse.

#119 Tony on 11.18.15 at 3:05 am

Re: #103 Dave on 11.17.15 at 11:56 pm

Like the last part of a sinking ship that will capsize. The mortgage defaults will be aplenty in that city I can assure you.

#120 Spectacle on 11.18.15 at 3:15 am

“This could be the perfect storm. Lousy commodity values and a big hit on real estate in a country …..”
Garth Turner above quote.

Perfect storm, hit on real estate, …… It better not hit the Shangrila luxury condo tower and Hotel in Vancouver, since 75% of the windows have already failed under testing. Now that is going to be costly to fix. Ouch!

How’s that for different.

#121 Tony on 11.18.15 at 3:27 am

Re: #86 Leo Trollstoy on 11.17.15 at 11:10 pm

cnbc=disregard

#122 YVR not an economy onto itself on 11.18.15 at 3:55 am

#6 waiting on the westcoast, #26 Andrew

You will not make anything until you buy, then sell. Let us know in 18 months how you did (Late Spring of 2017 – did you make $400 K).

YVR is not a country onto itself and immune to the Canadian and global economies. RE is about 25% of GDP activity. That cannot sustain a local economy nor its remaining 75% of GDP, no matter how insulated it may be or no matter how “rationed” the land is for building.

Lived in YVR, Toronto, Calgary and Edmonton markets when booming and then collapsed. All thought that it could never end. They all did.

They all ended in a relatively short period of time, less than a year (20% price drops in about 6 months, more in the subsequent year and a half). Fear takes over the herd as Garth correctly points out in today’s blog.

RE prices have never been slow to decline. Just look at historical prices from the early 80’s and 90’s.

There are, and always will be boom and bust periods. No one ever knows what that economic shock will be that creates the bust period but it WILL happen.

#123 Disappointed on 11.18.15 at 4:20 am

“Most people forget housing’s a commodity. ”

You Conservatives reduce EVERYTHING to money, and build your entire worldview around the goodness of profit and evil of loss, like a new religion or something. It’s messed up.

How about housing is a basic human need? No? Not to sociopaths. Why worry about the human when there’s profit to be made? Dontcha know, nothing’s bad if it makes money, nothing’s good if it doesn’t. A new morality for a new age, some would hope. Thankfully these neanderthals have been sent back to the cave for the next 4 years.

I’m all onboard with calling out housing lust for the ill effects it’s causing our society and our economy, but to straight up reduce it to a financial judgment of good vs evil? That’s ALL KINDS OF MESSED UP. Check your head Garth, Jesus Christ.

Shelter is a right. A house is not. — Garth

#124 jane 24 on 11.18.15 at 4:36 am

I read this every morning as often a good laugh. Agree with Garth about 95% of the time.

Re rich immigrants saving the housing boom. My parents were immigrants to Canada and like most immigrants came with very little. The whole idea was to build a future in Canada. If you are rich and successful in your home country why would you emigrate to somewhere as cold and heavily taxed as Canada?

Plus as I have said before this was the election to lose. The wheels are coming off the bus in Canada and the person in the top chair will get the blame, not the folk that set the ball rolling in previous years. This is also human nature. The next four years will set the Liberal cause back a generation.

#125 Victoria Real Estate Update on 11.18.15 at 4:40 am

# 63 omg the original

More information from a realtor who will say anything to try to convince others that now is a good time to buy.

More claims backed by nothing.

Last week you took ridiculous to a new level when you claimed that all Canadians are in good shape financially.

We all know that was false since it’s well known that51% of employed Canadians would find it difficult to meet their financial obligations if their paycheque were delayed by a single week.

The evidence you provided to support last week’s ridiculous claim was that your friends have expensive cable/internet packages and expensive cell plans. To you that meant that all Canadians are on solid ground financially speaking.

It isn’t different in Canada.

Housing markets in Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton crashed in the 1980s and Toronto in the 1990s.

I don’t think anyone takes you seriously after making such ridiculous claims in the past.

Once a national housing bubble has formed, the inevitable housing price correction is never slow.

There has never been an example of a country that has gone through a slow price correction.

It won’t be different in Canada.

#126 davikk on 11.18.15 at 6:08 am

Foreign Investors Bail out of Canada’s Money Machine, First Net Outflow From Canadian Securities Since 2008.

http://investmentwatchblog.com/foreign-investors-bail-out-of-canadas-money-machine-first-net-outflow-from-canadian-securities-since-2008/

#127 The real Kip on 11.18.15 at 7:43 am

The news reports say that German bond yields went negative this morning. Yellen will balk inDecember, again.

#128 Charlie Sheen on 11.18.15 at 8:58 am

…..Oh…and another thing, and please… don’t hate me for this……

I’m a realtor.

Kind of a property zombie myself, just like Garth says.

Damn.

I shoulda spent more time inspecting condoms, not condos.

:(

#winningnotsomuch

#129 liquidincalgary on 11.18.15 at 9:00 am

#50 For those about to flop… on 11.17.15 at 9:05 pm

It’s time to stop giving stuff away ( water) for cents on the dollar

================================================

how, and who, is selling canada’s water? it’s not even legal to do so under nafta

please clarify

#130 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.18.15 at 9:20 am

@#109 Ponius Pilatus

Smoking Man’s love for Leonard Cohen…..

Leonard Cohen….ugh… more grating on the eardrums than Bob Dylan’s nasal wheezing if thats possible
Leonard Cohen. Canada’s cure for insomnia. Our “gift” to the world.
If he was recording his songs during the 1st World war we could have blared his songs over loud speakers to send the Germans screaming from their trenches instead of sacrificing all those bagpipers…….

#131 liquidincalgary on 11.18.15 at 9:20 am

an exporting nation must be inherently ‘water rich’ in the first place.

exporting beef or other agriculture products…requires massive ammounts of water.

exporting O&G…more water

“The water used in the production process of an agricultural or industrial product is called the ‘virtual water’ contained in the product.”

http://www.gdrc.org/uem/footprints/Hoekstraglobal.pdf

#132 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.18.15 at 9:24 am

@#128 Charlie Sheen
“I shoulda spent more time inspecting condoms, not condos……”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Methinks his ex wife Denise Richards would second that opinion……

One wonders how much money Charlie has left to “surf”

#133 Freeman on 11.18.15 at 9:49 am

Anyone who is planning on buying an investment property in the U.S. or traveling with their car in the U.S. or traveling in the U.S. with more than $1,000 CASH should read up on something called “Civil Asset Forfeiture” laws in the U.S.

What it means is that the cops in the U.S. are going just crazy right now. If you are stopped by a cop because you’ve got out-of-state plates, the first question he’s going to ask you is “Do you have any Cash with you, and how much?” If you have over $1,000 cash on you then he’s going to take it, and there is nothing you can do to get it back, its GONE !

If you are traveling with a nice new car and that same police officer feels he can get some money for it in a police sale, he will simply tell you to get out of your vehicle, it is being seized because it is suspicious. No, that’s no joke, this stuff in happening in the U.S. right now.

And if you are renting out a house and one of the occupants of that house gets caught doing something wrong by police, perhaps caught with a Marijuana cigarette, well, the police can easily go to that house you own and are renting out and SEIZE IT in civil asset Forfeiture !

If you don’t believe me, then just watch this video and you will quickly discover that when in the U.S. you can have all of your stuff taken away from you, with no charges held against you, and there is nothing you can do to get your stuff back. In other words, the U.S. has literally become a Banana Republic where there is no laws to protect you against the criminal police force there. Sad but true.

Civil Forfeiture (HBO) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kEpZWGgJks

Police Civil Asset Forfeitures Exceed All Burglaries in 2014 http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/39102

So now that you understand what the U.S. is like, this is how you have to behave:

1 – If you are traveling to the U.S., never carry more than $1,000 cash !

2 – If you are going to be driving in the U.S., DO NOT DRIVE YOUR OWN CAR, unless it is a car that has such a low value that you don’t care if it gets taken away from you.

3 – If you want to invest in a rental property, DO NOT BUY ANY PROPERTY IN THE U.S. !!! The police can take it away from you for absolutely no reason, and in no way can you get it back.

#134 Prairieboy43 on 11.18.15 at 9:57 am

@Moses71. Moses we will take all 25000 Syrians. These Syrians are already Battle Hardened. Alberta Right wing will start a Army. Big Oil would have AB backside. Good Bye NDP! No more transfer payments Canada. No more B.C.!! Borders will change.

#135 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.18.15 at 10:11 am

Oh goody now we can add Salt Lake City as a sister city. Wynne will be happy!
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/salt-lake-city-elects-first-openly-gay-mayor-amid-setbacks/ar-BBn8luB

#136 Alistair McLaughlin on 11.18.15 at 10:14 am

Frank, when Garth referred to Finance Canada as “Flaherty and the peckerettes” a few years ago, was that a reference to only female Finance department employees? Think before you type. And as I told you the other day, grow a pair, or at least a thicker skin.

#137 Jamie Dimon on 11.18.15 at 10:19 am

The perfect storm of cheap housing? It’s tough to time bottom so I’m going to assume Garth will unleash his blog dog minions to feast on the souls of those who dared utter the words “houses never go down” when the time is right.

#138 Not tonight honey on 11.18.15 at 10:33 am

#101 Moses71
Do please tell us why you moved to this godforsaken redneck land? Allow me to guess, to chase a buck…just like everyone else. No one enjoys a hypocrite.

#139 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.18.15 at 10:34 am

#71 Smoking Man on 11.17.15 at 10:17 pm

ISIS has stoked the wrath of Putin.

Receiving confirmation from the head of the FSB that the Metrojet over Sinai was indeed downed by a bomb, a somber but furious Putin spoke to the Russian people about the coming vengeance.

‘The murder of our people in Sinai is one of the bloodiest in terms of the number of victims of such crimes. We won’t easily wipe away the tears in our hearts and souls. It will stay with us forever. But that will not prevent us from finding and punishing the perpetrators. We should not apply any time limits. We need to know all the perpetrators by name. We will search for them everywhere – wherever they are hiding. We will find them in any spot on the planet and we will punish them’, said a very serious-looking Putin.

And as if this dire warning wasn’t enough, the enraged president vowed to ratchet up the strikes in Syria so that ‘the criminals understand that revenge is unavoidable.’

This is the harshest language Putin has used since he promised to kill Chechens in the ‘shithouse’ when he served as FSB director.

Combine all of this with the FSB offering $50 million for information on the perpetrators, and it looks like ISIS and its affiliates are set to reap the whirlwind.
…….

Who doesn’t love this guy, I’m really starting to appreciate Obama.. stands down, lip service to the Neocons. Lets Putin do dirty work…

Bonus, NutAndYahoo get arrested if he set foot in Spain..
Neocons are going down.. building 7 bitches…Isis, and Ukraine. You woke up a sleeping bear, idiots.

Tide is turning…

Finally.
____________________________________________
I would tend to agree with this article. However the Russians are still ruthless. They will pay $$ for information and then come back and eliminate everyone who ever touched the $$. They are very thorough agents of intimidation. They do it in a stealth mode. The ISIS group picked the wrong plane to bomb. The Russians do not give a shit what the world thinks. They will do as they please and America will sit back and watch them do what they can not do. That is to take out everyone responsible for this terrible terrorist act. That is not because America can not do it, but in the eyes of the world America is held to a higher standard for their actions. Russians and Vladimir Putin are not held to these same standards.

http://www.sott.net/article/306639-Righteous-anger-Putin-to-unleash-hell-on-ISIS-throughout-the-world

#140 Iknow on 11.18.15 at 10:42 am

Garth, Vancouver tracks Hong Kong and Shanghai, and Toronto tries to track Vancouver; all have absolutely nothing to do with the rest of North America, until space aliens would attack. Deals with it.

#141 Leo Trollstoy on 11.18.15 at 11:34 am

#133 Freeman on 11.18.15 at 9:49 am

Never had a problem.

Waste your time on something else.

#142 Leo Trollstoy on 11.18.15 at 11:37 am

#121 Tony on 11.18.15 at 3:27 am

Kill the messenger.

Got it.

#143 Ronaldo on 11.18.15 at 12:00 pm

Just read that a section of the Stanley Park seawall fell apart because of wind, rain and guess what else? Climate change. I almost spilled my coffee when I read that. I had some water backing up behind my rock wall causing cracks in the mortar. Guess that was due to climate change as well and not poor construction.

#144 };-) Devil's Advocate on 11.18.15 at 12:06 pm

SHIFT happens, always has, always will.

Property values increase. They sometimes overshoot logic and then a “correction” ensues. But overall, based on recent history, prices increase. Wouldn’t you like to pay 1950’s prices for your next home? Or even 1970’s, 80’s, 90’s?

Hang in there.

Learn to ride the tide.

Be it bought or rented the resident is paying the toll.

7 to 10 year cycles… Where are we on that trend?

I think now’s a good time to sell… if you are leaving the market for good. Late Spring / early summer is the time to buy… if you are entering or re-entering the market. But real estate, like most “investments” is a long term hold. Speculators beware… as they say “Pigs get slaughtered”, “the chicken has a steak in the game but the pig is committed”.

Cheers };-)

#145 IHCTD9 on 11.18.15 at 12:13 pm

#43 Freedom First on 11.17.15 at 8:41 pm
#14 Frank

Frank, what Garth said.
You really are a Frankette.
____________________________________________

Yes, “he” really seems very overly concerned about what might possibly, perhaps, maybe, in some fashion be considered sexist.

Francine?

#146 NEVER GIVE UP on 11.18.15 at 12:18 pm

#4 Banking with ISIS on 11.17.15 at 6:44 pm

Without finance there would be no war. Without bankers there are no terrorists. The enemies of humanity are not suicide bombing muslims or child molesting christians. The enemies of humanity are the bankers. They are the facilitators of all crimes against humanity
———————————————————-

Agreed: Do you think that the USA would even prosecute one war if its citizens had to pay in real time taxes for it?
Notice that when you travel, even in the most vilified nations like Iran and Cuba, Venezuela. The man in the street is always the same. Nice people. Everywhere at street level.
It is really the Leaders that go to war. Not the people. Sometime the leaders use propaganda to get more support for war, but usually the minions on the street are on board with a little prodding from the Main Street Media.
Only fools send their kids off to die in another man’s war.

#147 Spectacle on 11.18.15 at 12:21 pm

#129 liquidincalgary on 11.18.15 at 9:00 am
#50 For those about to flop… on 11.17.15 at 9:05 pm

It’s time to stop giving stuff away ( water) for cents on the dollar

================================================

how, and who, is selling canada’s water? it’s not even legal to do so under nafta

please clarify

::::::::::::::::::::: To Answer Your Question ::::::::::::::::::
In BC, Nestle and others pay the current rate of $2.50 per million litres of water. And that’s Canadian dollars.

Nafta.. FATCA, TIPP or WTF, they just use or bottle it. Ancient and deep BC water wells are even drying up pumping air in many places .

#148 Rainclouds on 11.18.15 at 12:22 pm

#137 Jaime

Clearly You are new here, vultch is the GF authorized terminology for purchasing beaten down RE……..study hard grasshopper:-)

#149 Rainclouds on 11.18.15 at 12:36 pm

Data……. immigration in GVRD. Of course, (according to BCREA, Clarke Govt,) there is no way to correlate with home purchase info……duhhhhh

http://blogs.vancouversun.com/2015/11/17/where-immigrants-live-in-metro-vancouver-interactive-map/

#150 NEVER GIVE UP on 11.18.15 at 12:42 pm

Israel has lost its way the day they killed the Peace President Yitzhak Rabin.

Netanyahu is a weak minded hateful hawk who only knows the barrel of a gun.

These right wingers will never yield to peace because then they cannot take any more land that does not belong to them.

(from Wikipedia)
National religious conservatives and Likud party leaders believed that withdrawing from any “Jewish” land was heresy. Rallies, organized partially by Likud, became increasingly extreme in tone. Likud leader (and future Prime Minister) Benjamin Netanyahu accused Rabin’s government of being “removed from Jewish tradition … and Jewish values.” Netanyahu addressed protesters of the Oslo movement at rallies where posters portrayed Rabin in a Nazi SS uniform or being the target in the cross-hairs of a sniper.[1] Rabin accused Netanyahu of provoking violence, a charge which Netanyahu strenuously denied.[2]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/spain-issues-arrest-warrant-for-israeli-prime-minister-benjamin-netanyahu-over-2010-gaza-flotilla-a6736436.html

#151 Leslie Forth on 11.18.15 at 1:25 pm

DELETED

#152 SWL1976 on 11.18.15 at 1:25 pm

#129 liquidincalgary

#50 For those about to flop…

It’s time to stop giving stuff away ( water) for cents on the dollar

================================================

how, and who, is selling canada’s water? it’s not even legal to do so under nafta

please clarify

————————————

Nestle’ signed a sweet heart deal with the province of BC to purchase water for the bargin basement price of ~2.50$ / million liters

No that is not a typo

So remember what you are supportting when you buy any Nestle’ product. Especially their ‘Pure Life’ bottled water

The corporatocracy we are living in is creating a disgustingly disproportionate gap between the have not’s and the thieves

As far as getting around NAFTA… Well the TPP will probably take care of that. I’m pretty sure it’s illegal to sell bulk water, but like any ‘too big to fail’ actually have to abide by the rules. The fine print probably states 2 million 500ml bottles is not bulk water. I can’t confirm that as I am not a trade lawyer…

But I do know we are being had

#153 paul on 11.18.15 at 1:29 pm

it’s what Garth always says the power to TAX!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-may-soon-have-power-to-take-passports-from-tax-delinquents-2015-11-17

#154 OXI in GREECE on 11.18.15 at 1:30 pm

While the govt has done virtually NOTHING to stop terrorism, anonymous has kept its promise and is taking down websites and twitter accounts.

https://www.rt.com/news/322427-anonymous-isis-twitter-accounts/

Again…….BILLIONS and BILLIONS spent by Govt. Virtually zero done. Illegal hackers? Tons of results. Someday people will realize spying by govt is about TAXES not keeping you safe.

#155 paul on 11.18.15 at 1:37 pm

#138 Not tonight honey on 11.18.15 at 10:33 am

#101 Moses71
Do please tell us why you moved to this godforsaken redneck land? Allow me to guess, to chase a buck…just like everyone else. No one enjoys a hypocrite
———————————————————-
Especially a cut rate one.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oUSdPuy29TY

#156 OXI in GREECE on 11.18.15 at 1:45 pm

#152 SWL1976 on 11.18.15 at 1:25 pm
#129 liquidincalgary

#50 For those about to flop…

It’s time to stop giving stuff away ( water) for cents on the dollar

================================================

how, and who, is selling canada’s water? it’s not even legal to do so under nafta

please clarify

————————————

Nestle’ signed a sweet heart deal with the province of BC to purchase water for the bargin basement price of ~2.50$ / million liters

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

I live here.

This is a VERY poor example of Corporatocracy. This bottling plant is no where near Greater Holecouver. The aquifers are fed by a lake that never goes down. Not even in our so called “drought” – what a joke that was but people are dumb and believe anything they are told – The water could be FREE and it would still be good business as they employ people here who pay taxes……

Cherry picking at its worst…..

#157 saskatoon on 11.18.15 at 1:51 pm

here’s more about nestle/china concerning (stealing) north american water:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mUZLqXGrQmc

watch from 1:02:00 on…

#158 pete on 11.18.15 at 1:57 pm

#132 crowdedelevatorfartz

Get post. I myself would never travel to that third world banana republic country. It’s a horrible banker law less country that hates freedom, democracy and free markets.

#159 JimH on 11.18.15 at 2:05 pm

#133 Freeman on 11.18.15 at 9:49 am
Every winter, the greater Phoenix region from Casa Grande to Sun City and from Glendale to Apache Junction almost doubles in population due to “out of State” Snowbirds. There are nearly 1/2 a million of these folks, Many from Canada.

Thank god folks like you know enough to get the word out and save them a ton of pain!

Now run along and take your meds…

#160 MF on 11.18.15 at 2:23 pm

#146 NEVER GIVE UP on 11.18.15 at 12:18 pm
#4 Banking with ISIS on 11.17.15 at 6:44 pm

Your message is one of hate not peace.

It’s people like you who spread this hate that are the real enemies of humanity.

MF

#161 Abolitionist on 11.18.15 at 2:23 pm

Our best bet to put Canada on the right track in terms of economic development, significantly reducing the tax burden, making it easier for business to operate across the country, and simplify regulations to make life in general easier for Canadians:

**ABOLISH THE PROVINCES**

Canada can function and thrive with a government composed of one national government and municipalities for larger urban centres.

It is redundant to have 10 separate provincial governments, each with their own set of rules, duplicate ministries of health, highways, etc.

The federal government would have to expand slightly to take up some of the workload of the current provincial governments, but the ability to eliminate 10 whole governments would save billions of tax dollars.

It doesn’t make sense for each province to have their own health card, driver’s license, etc. If you live in Canada, a driver’s license should be the same regardless of where you live in the country.

Business that operate in multiple provincial jurisdictions would save millions if the employment, environmental, taxation, and licensing rules were uniform across the country.

Eliminate the redundancy that is dragging our country down.

ABOLISH THE PROVINCES!

#162 MF on 11.18.15 at 2:25 pm

#137 Jamie Dimon on 11.18.15 at 10:19 am

Could take a while though. The housing meltdown will take years and slow and often invisible erosion of equity.

MF

#163 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.18.15 at 2:38 pm

Uplifting show of solidarity and defiance at Wembley yesterday.
Arabs like soccer.
Time to replace the Peace Dove with a Soccer Ball.

#164 MF on 11.18.15 at 3:04 pm

#117 Tony on 11.18.15 at 3:00 am

Exactly. The herd mentality goes up and down.

Lots of speculators here in the GTA. Watch as they all start bailing on their 600 sq foot 400k condo “investment” at the same time.

That spillover will then reach the 905 SFH’s and the speculators there.

CPD preferred’s going down again. Too bad, we were on a roll for a while there.

MF

#165 Mike in Edm on 11.18.15 at 3:06 pm

#59 bubu on 11.17.15 at 9:33 pm
If the prices in Calgary and Edmonton didn’t go down at least 10%, nothing will crash the real estate in Canada… I don’t know the logic, if there is any but when the oil goes down 60%, lots of jobs are gone … I don’t know what to say… Except the hit on the number of sales I don’t see any problem with the real estate… some people will sale later when market will get back so no worries…
********************************************
Severence pay, EI and Lines of Credit haven’t ran out yet. I can count 5 personal good friends (plus myself) that are either laid off or have been this year in Alberta. O&G isn’t even at the halfway through this mess yet. Even the first unlucky ones to be laid off were maybe 1 year ago. Probably not even that long yet.

I work in the heart of O&G (Leduc) and our owner figures we’ll be ok till next summer, but if things are still low by then, I’m guessing a bunch of us will be gone (and a bunch of ppl here already have been laid off). If oil is still below $60/bbl by August 2016 (which i’m sure it will be), mark my words – there is going to be a TON more new layoffs across Alberta. I fully expect i’ll be gone in August again.

So do you know what that means? No extra spending for me. So I guess i’m part of the reason that Sept car sales in AB were down 15-20% YoY, or why 3 restaurants in my neighborhood have all closed their doors this year. So It’s not just the O&G sector, it eventually trickles down to everyone.

So sooner or later, ppl are going to run out of money. And when that happens, ppl will be forced to sell. And IF it gets bad enough, ppl are going to look at Alberta and say “holy crap, I wonder if that could happen here?” or “holy crap, why on earth would I pay $1mill for a crackshack in Van or $300k for an average house on the east coast, when they’re going for that much in Calgary!?”

#166 45north on 11.18.15 at 3:12 pm

Ponzius Pilatus: Les Allemands étaient chez moi

Pontius Pilate speaks French. I knew he spoke Latin.

#167 45north on 11.18.15 at 3:15 pm

Anchor away: Meehan loses job as Bell cuts CTV, CJOH media jobs

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/ctv-co-anchor-cfra-staff-laid-off-in-bell-media-job-cuts

this is a shock. I mean some young person looking for a job would love to have her as a reference.

#168 family beagle on 11.18.15 at 3:31 pm

#161 Abolitionist on 11.18.15 at 2:23 pm
Our best bet to put Canada on the right track in terms of economic development, significantly reducing the tax burden, making it easier for business to operate across the country, and simplify regulations to make life in general easier for Canadians:

**ABOLISH THE PROVINCES**

……

Sorry, citizen #161, I’m a British Columbian. Ontario might as well be Belarus as far as I know. Nice people, but we don’t even share the same aspirations. Which brings up the topic of provincial passports…

#169 Shelly Cooper on 11.18.15 at 3:36 pm

Obama tells Trudeau to knuckle under at first meeting

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/11/18/Obama-presses-Canada-for-quick-TPP-approval.aspx

So much for ‘the new beginning’ that was promised during the election.

#170 45north on 11.18.15 at 3:38 pm

SWL1976: Nestle’ signed a sweet heart deal with the province of BC to purchase water for the bargin basement price of $2.50 / million liters

the Ottawa river ( I guess at its confluence with the St Laurent ) has an average flow rate of 1950 cubic meters a second. A million liters is 1000 cubic meters. So the same price would buy you 0.5 seconds of the flow of the Ottawa River.

I thought that BC had water

#171 Ole Doberman on 11.18.15 at 3:54 pm

Looks like the London RE market crashing:

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/39510

#172 SWL1976 on 11.18.15 at 4:25 pm

#156 OXI in GREECE on 11.18.15 at 1:45 pm
#152 SWL1976 on 11.18.15 at 1:25 pm
#129 liquidincalgary

#50 For those about to flop…

It’s time to stop giving stuff away ( water) for cents on the dollar

================================================

how, and who, is selling canada’s water? it’s not even legal to do so under nafta

please clarify

————————————

Nestle’ signed a sweet heart deal with the province of BC to purchase water for the bargin basement price of ~2.50$ / million liters

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

I live here.

This is a VERY poor example of Corporatocracy. This bottling plant is no where near Greater Holecouver. The aquifers are fed by a lake that never goes down. Not even in our so called “drought” – what a joke that was but people are dumb and believe anything they are told – The water could be FREE and it would still be good business as they employ people here who pay taxes……

Cherry picking at its worst…..

——————-

I too am a resident of BC, yet benefit not from giving away water.

Ever heard of fair market value???

You think those are fair profit margins for the citizens of Canada drowning in Provincial and Federal Debt???

#173 Quiet Man on 11.18.15 at 4:28 pm

George Carln’s Best 3 minutes

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsL6mKxtOlQ

#174 Stuckinaloop on 11.18.15 at 4:31 pm

Sydney’s real estate market has seen a similar run up in prices to Vancouver. But it looks like mortgage rates are being increased to cool off the market even though the central rate stays unchanged.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/australia-consumer-confidence-sags-as-mortgage-rates-rise-1445900035

#175 Broke Dick on 11.18.15 at 4:40 pm

Garth where are you?
Oh now I know. You saw this and now you’re dancing it the street.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/us-business/fed-officials-again-flag-december-rate-hike-see-smooth-liftoff/article27320188/

Enough of that. back to work.

#176 Broke Dick on 11.18.15 at 4:46 pm

Hey Freedom First.
Have a look. Another confirmed bachelor.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/parenting/new-barbie-commercial-features-a-boy-for-the-firsttime/article27318885/

#177 Montrealer on 11.18.15 at 4:48 pm

Garth says:

In Montreal sales were ahead slightly and the median house price touched $300,000

Anything in Montreal proper at 300K are teardowns or one bedroom shoeboxes in undesirable locations.

Montreal has not been immune to the RE stupidity that has afflicted this country. Not in the Van or TO range of lunacy, nonetheless, don’t be fooled by stats issued by the local Greater Montreal RE cartel.

In my neighborhood? Nuthin’ under 600K…for a 2 bedroom.

#178 Snowboid on 11.18.15 at 5:18 pm

#159 JimH on 11.18.15 at 2:05 pm…

I agree, #133 Freeman has offered important advice for all snowboids.

We have listed our home, are having our car shipped home in a container, and in future will only carry $1 USD while travelling.

#179 IHCTD9 on 11.18.15 at 5:19 pm

#123 Disappointed on 11.18.15 at 4:20 am
“Most people forget housing’s a commodity. ”

You Conservatives reduce EVERYTHING to money, and build your entire worldview around the goodness of profit and evil of loss, like a new religion or something. It’s messed up.

How about housing is a basic human need? No? Not to sociopaths. Why worry about the human when there’s profit to be made? Dontcha know, nothing’s bad if it makes money, nothing’s good if it doesn’t. A new morality for a new age, some would hope. Thankfully these neanderthals have been sent back to the cave for the next 4 years.

I’m all onboard with calling out housing lust for the ill effects it’s causing our society and our economy, but to straight up reduce it to a financial judgment of good vs evil? That’s ALL KINDS OF MESSED UP. Check your head Garth, Jesus Christ.
____________________________________________

Cool your jets bro, the only reason we have anything in Western society is due to folks earning money, and lots of it. A developing nation has always and will always start by trying to make money, only after all the infrastructure a modern society needs is in place will ideological, civil, humanitarian, labour etc… issues hit the table.

No society ever got off the ground worrying about ideological pursuits before anyone had two nickels to rub together.

#180 jess on 11.18.15 at 5:33 pm

frontline.org

…these kids all home schooled in how to shoot /hold a russian gun and are prepared to blow themselves up in the future!

=
I’ve been embedded with the Taliban many, many times,” Quraishi says in his new FRONTLINE documentary, ISIS in Afghanistan. “But when I first heard about ISIS in Afghanistan, I was shocked. I was thinking, ‘Why ISIS in Afghanistan? What are they doing in my country?’”
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/isis-in-afghanistan/

#181 jess on 11.18.15 at 5:48 pm

http://patrioticmillionaires.org/

about:

The Patriotic Millionaires

The Patriotic Millionaires are a group of more than 200 Americans with annual incomes over $1 million and/or assets of more than $5 million who believe that the country’s current level of economic inequality is both dangerous and immoral. They recognize that while there are many causes of inequality, the current level of economic disparity is largely the result of a multi-decade effort by wealthy elites to enact legislation designed to enhance their personal wealth and their political power. This is done with little or no regard for the negative consequences such policies have on the vast majority of Americans. The Patriotic Millionaires are dedicated to reversing these policies and to ensuring that the legislative capture that led to their adoption comes to an end. To realize that goal, the Patriotic Millionaires focus on a set of issues that best illustrate the difference between legislation that serves the interests of the majority of citizens and that which enriches the few. These issues are taxes, wages and the democratic process. Members expressly support legislation that directly yields:…………..

#182 Nemesis on 11.18.15 at 5:58 pm

“No society ever got off the ground worrying about ideological pursuits before anyone had two nickels to rub together.” – IHCTD9

#Well,Actually…

https://youtu.be/hbKHPLbuLw0

#183 kilby on 11.18.15 at 6:01 pm

Civil Forfeiture (HBO) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3kEpZWGgJks

Police Civil Asset Forfeitures Exceed All Burglaries in 2014 http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/39102

Great video…..

#184 fixie guy on 11.18.15 at 6:06 pm

“It really doesn’t matter what inflates houses (low mortgages, Chinese dudes, Liberals) nor what deflates them (rate hikes, oil, layoffs) because all that really counts is the way people feel about it.”

Might want to check the papers, the Conservatives have been at the helm for the bulk of the upswing and it matters. They did it by backstopping the mortgage industry through greatly lowering lending risk, encouraging a flood of cheap and available money for housing and guaranteeing bank profits at taxpayer expense. The party ends when this Amway scheme is no longer supportable, meaning soon.
To be honest I fully expected the Harper criminals to either hand the blame for this disaster to the Liberals in the last federal election, or pull the trigger early after a win. Never did I dream of a cynicism and contempt of Canada so deep that they would extend it another full term. Take this to the bank though, like their Republican mentors to the south the Conservatives will undoubtedly work furiously to pass the blame for their actions to new government.
Mulroney/Harper – never again.

#185 SWL1976 on 11.18.15 at 6:20 pm

#170 45north

SWL1976: Nestle’ signed a sweet heart deal with the province of BC to purchase water for the bargin basement price of $2.50 / million liters

the Ottawa river ( I guess at its confluence with the St Laurent ) has an average flow rate of 1950 cubic meters a second. A million liters is 1000 cubic meters. So the same price would buy you 0.5 seconds of the flow of the Ottawa River.

I thought that BC had water

—————————————

We do and if we are in the business of water we should be getting fair market value for it

We once had an endless supply of trees, and fish too…

Now look how that worked out

A few positions at a bottling factory is nothing compared to what could be, and if they don’t want it, fine, have them go some other place in the world with an abundant supply of fresh water.

Oh that’s right…

It is getting rare

#186 family beagle on 11.18.15 at 9:03 pm

#185 SWL1976 on 11.18.15 at 6:20 pm

We do and if we are in the business of water we should be getting fair market value for it

….

Complain and Christie will tax rain. It’s a slippery slope.

#187 boonerator on 11.18.15 at 11:48 pm

Re: Russians in Syria
I remember this story from the 80’s. Hezbollah kidnapped some Soviet diplomats. They killed one of them, the KGB went medieval on a relative of a Hezbollah leader and voila, the diplomats were released.

ISIS has angered quite a nasty bunch.

http://articles.philly.com/1986-01-15/news/26052630_1_hostage-crisis-soviet-captives-islamic-liberation-organization