The macro

BIG1

The dudes at the OECD just can’t keep their noses to themselves. In a report to Canada’s shiny new, gender-perfect T2 cabinet, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development says Ottawa had better start tightening up on mortgage lending and cooling off the house porn in 416 and 604, or troubles loom.

Yeah, I know. Yet another collection of international pointy-heads, and yet another dire warning. The IMF did it. The Economist did it. Every major rating agency has done it. Deutschebank did it. And Robert Shiller, too. Everybody looks at little Canada with its slagging economy, commodity fetish, hot PM and endless house lust, and says the same thing. And yet people in East Van and Etobicoke just keep on buying houses, racking up the debt.

So why care this time?

Hmm. Let’s consider the stock market for a minute. It was an ugly day Monday, but not for the usual reasons (China, Greece, the Kardashians). Over the weekend the euphoria of a stunning US jobs report wore off, and traders started thinking deeply about the consequences. When they hit their desks, they also hit the sell button, locking in gains, getting ready for a new reality.

As explained here Friday, the fact 271,000 positions were created in the last month suggests the Fed will raise its key rate for the first time in a decade on December 16th. This signals the beginning of the end of the cheapest money in modern history. And while higher rates are a signal the American economy is now wearing its big-boy pants and doesn’t need as much stimulus (I miss those days myself), it also means borrowing gets more expensive.

As a result, investors took their gains. Bond prices fell with a thud as yields spiked. The US dollar jumped the most in a decade (higher rates there will attract more capital). Emerging market currencies fell as a result. So did commodity prices (like oil), traded in US$. All this was part of the expected – a realignment of expectations now that it’s evident this baby’s actually gonna pop. Almost a  decade of dirt-cheap money is ending. It’s a big change. And markets hate change.

Here’s the key point if you just bought a boring $1.5 million house in 416, at the top of the market, while paying an additional $52,200 in land transfer tax – this is just the start. Here’s how a guy who manages $9 billion put it: “I don’t think it’s the 25 basis points that’s necessarily leading the market down, but what comes after. How fast and furious do the rate hikes come now that this cheap money environment is coming to an end?”

No bank rates have yet risen in Canada, yet already mortgage brokers are starting to post higher mortgage costs. Five-year fixed loan costs edged higher Friday, now in the 2.5% to 2.7% range, with pre-approvals closer to 2.8%. Meanwhile the discount between fixed and variable shrank, with adjustable-rate mortgages currently around prime minus a half.

These could look quaint in a few months. No, rates will not spike or swell uncontrollably as they have in the past. But they will continue to slowly, relentlessly, increase. I said here when a five-year loan was 2.2%, people renewing in 2020 will probably be doing so at 5% or better. Still think so. You might pray I’m wrong, but you should also get ready. Once the Fed starts tightening the screws, it won’t stop as long as the economy grows and jobs are created. That’s the US economy. US jobs. The guys in Washington don’t actually care about Kitsilano, Kitchener, South Surrey or your BIL’s epic stupid mortgage.

So back to the OECD, which is well aware Ottawa’s embarking on a path of deficit spending, creating the need for tens of billions in additional government bonds. More pressure on the debt market. And if the Fed ups its key rate two or three times over the next year, then it’s pretty much certain the Bank of Canada will follow. How could it not, and still keep the dollar alive? Recall that over 90% of the time, our central bank follows theirs.

Thus the international community is asking the feds for more “macroprudential” measures – the big new word which means ‘make it harder for moist millennials to leap into house debt.’

“Given the supportive monetary stance, high household debt and strong price increases in some markets (single dwellings in Toronto and Vancouver) that are already expensive relative to fundamentals, further macro-prudential tightening on mortgage lending in these markets, such as maximum loan-to-value or debt-servicing ratios, should be implemented to ensure financial stability,” it said, adding that in Toronto there is “the risk of a sharp market correction.”

And did you hear that a 20% housing correction would wipe out big swaths of young homeowners? The Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives says even a modest real estate downturn would nail Millennials and GenXers to the cross of excessive mortgage debt.

Hey, I wonder if anybody told these guys Alberta will be getting a sales tax just as its housing market falls apart? Or that CPP premiums will be going up for everybody, adding a thousand bucks to payroll taxes? Or how about the cap-and-trade carbon tax thingy our new climate change minister is cooking up in Paris? There are consequences of electing a tax-and-spend government just when your biggest trading partner is going in the opposite direction.

Damn good thing we can survive on exports of “Love it Or List it.”

248 comments ↓

#1 common sense on 11.09.15 at 7:06 pm

Nice post….

Look OUT….

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#2 Broke Dick on 11.09.15 at 7:07 pm

Still much better than yesterday’s photo, too depressing especially with the caption.

#3 jess on 11.09.15 at 7:10 pm

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#4 Canadian on 11.09.15 at 7:11 pm

It was too funny you mention the sales tax thing because no less than an hour after Notley released the budget the talking heads were out doing the rounds on the radio talking about how a sales tax is a good thing for the province….

#5 Victoria Real Estate Update on 11.09.15 at 7:13 pm

5-year mortgage rates will begin rising soon in Canada.

Each small increase in mortgage rates will have a noticeable cooling effect on Canada’s housing market.

Here’s why:

Diana Petramala of TD Economics recently explained that the two small rate drops earlier this year were “highly simulative.” Canada’s housing market received a significant boost from these two small rate drops that created the environment for lower 5-year fixed mortgage rates.

Naturally, each small increase in mortgage rates will impact Canada’s housing market in an equally powerful and opposite way.

Some argue that the coming series of small rate increases over the next 2 to 3 years won’t have much of an effect on house prices in Canada.

They are wrong.

They obviously don’t understand that this is new territory for Canada.

* Canadians are stretched financially more than at any time in the past with record household debt and stagnating wages.

* With house prices at current extreme levels (3 times higher than in the 90s), the effect of a small increase in mortgage rates also gets multiplied by 3 in terms of its cooling effect on the housing market.

Housing markets in Victoria, Vancouver, Edmonton and Calgary crashed in the 1980s and Toronto in the 1990s.

It isn’t different in Canada.

#6 omg the original on 11.09.15 at 7:14 pm

THE MYTH OF THE QUICK AND DEEP CORRECTION

There has been much posted about the impending rate hike and implication for bloated Canadian housing market.

Some have even proposed all it will take is a minor rate hike to trigger a catastrophic correction in the Canadian market – back to pre-bubble levels – that’s a 30 to 50% drop in prices in hot areas.

This is ridiculous. But don’t take my word for it – think about it yourself.

A 1% mortgages rate increase on a $600,000 mortgage results in a payment increase of about $320 per month.

A chunk of cash to be sure. But people will find a way to pay it – the supposed alternative being to lose their house and take a several hundred thousand dollar loss. How absurd.

All the people that I know who have bought big ticket houses over the past 5 years still;
– drive 2 late model cars
– have the newest cell phones on expensive contracts
– eat out several times a month
– have $180/m cable/internet packages
– go on expensive vacations.

Lots of room to cut expenses for most people. And that’s not even making a withdrawal from Bank of Mom.

As I have said before houses in Canada will correct – but it will be a long, slow ride down.

We will need to see a 3-5% increase in mortgages before the market corrects in a meaningful way.

The way the world economy is going that won’t happen anytime in the next couple years.

So learn to enjoy renting and keep investing the cash your saving.

#7 Victoria Real Estate Update on 11.09.15 at 7:15 pm

Yesterday I posted a comment stating that the seller of this update SW Calgary house was having a difficult time getting a deal done.

51 Bridlecreek Gate, SW (# C4031567)

*** Listed a 11.5% BELOW ASSESSED VALUE ***

* Updated, 2 beds, 2 baths, attached double garage

* List price: $384.8 K, down from $399.8 K
* Assessed value: $434.5 K

A delusional commenter wrote this:

“Not to mention that’s right on the edge of Calgary. It’s practically Okatokos”

Apparently Frank didn’t know that the location of the property and its distance from downtown was already accounted for in its assessed value ($434.5 K).

51 Bridlecreek Gate SW clearly shows how difficult it is right now for some Calgary sellers to get a deal done.

It’s more evidence that points to a significantly bigger price correction in Cowtown than what Calgary’s R/E board is willing to admit to through their home price index.

#8 Md on 11.09.15 at 7:15 pm

Hey Garth. Great post very informative. Just wondering what effect the fed rate hike would have on my portfolio? Will markets continue to decline? Thanks

Then you have the wrong portfolio. — Garth

#9 TurnerNation on 11.09.15 at 7:15 pm

Kanadians…the only people stupid enough to pay almost $15 for a pint of beer in a chain restaurant. $9 + tax + tip. Could buy a 6 pack for that, down south.

OurWayOfLife.

#10 JO on 11.09.15 at 7:16 pm

The junk neoliberal economy with its so called progressive politicians is reaching its inevitable destruction phase. The only things that progress are debt, taxes, corruption. These people will not stop until thru have stolen everything from those living and yet unborn.

Climate change is junk science that is being used as cover by corrupt politicians to further tax away what remains of your income

As the economy slowly implodes they will continue to use the climate change scam, refugees and eventually war with Russia, Iran and China to deflect attention away from the economic implosion and inevitable collapse in living standards. The greatest debt bubble in history is deflating and they see that interest charges will consume more than 50% of their budgets within 10 years possibly 5 years if rates move to 4-5% and stay there
The ending sees a massive loss of confidence in government and their bonds with wave after wave of default and asset grabs as they desperately try to take every penny to pay interest to keep creditors at bay

What a farce
JO

#11 WhyWorry? on 11.09.15 at 7:17 pm

Hey Garth,

In a global economy with all other economies screaming warning, why do you think that the USA is doing so well? If there was real growth, wouldn’t the US be dragging the rest of the world with it? Wanna bet that the Fed will use the concern for global conditions to delay on raising rates until March? That buys them another 3 months to cook up another reason for deferring? For someone who has been so wrong on this it amazes me that you remain so emphatic on the same position?

#12 TurnerNation on 11.09.15 at 7:18 pm

What’s the going rate at South Side Johnny’s? Hun included.

#13 omg the original on 11.09.15 at 7:19 pm

The Centre for Policy Alternatives also released a study finding that the “young and leveraged” would be the most vulnerable in a housing correction.

Duh, no kidding.

But of course the biggest concern with anything out of the CCPA is that the solution is always governments spending money to fix the problem.

At least we elected a good old fashioned Liberal government with tight ties to Bay St instead of the orange bunch.

#14 For those about to flop... on 11.09.15 at 7:21 pm

There are consequences of electing a tax-and-spend government just when your biggest trading partner is going in the opposite direction.-Garth
////////////////////////////////////////
Tax and spend? Looks more like a tax and bend government to me.

#15 Londoner on 11.09.15 at 7:23 pm

Didn’t I warn you about the OECD? They have been consistently wrong on their predictions for a global economic recovery (and almost everything else for that matter).

Anyways, this is going to be my last post for a while so happy Xmas and all that. I just wanted to say that I agree with all the advice given on this blog about diversification and balance. I never thought I would join the $1MM club before 40 but here we are. I still disagree with Garth about the future path of rates. Not saying that they won’t go up just about how they will and what will cause it.

#16 Janet Yellen on 11.09.15 at 7:25 pm

Dear Garth, stop making a fool of yourself. We will not raise the rate in December…Or ever…Everyone but mainstream economist know that.

Do you even know how a .25% hike will balloon up the Interest payment for the government?? We are not crazy… next step is Negative rate. We started to put that in people head in September and will push it further in December… NIRP is coming.

Janet

#17 Smoking Man on 11.09.15 at 7:25 pm

#12 TurnerNation on 11.09.15 at 7:18 pm
What’s the going rate at South Side Johnny’s? Hun included.

Pitcher of beer, 17 bucks, with Live bands. good deal.

#18 bdy sktrn on 11.09.15 at 7:31 pm

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A Fireblade can do 0-60 mph in 2.9 seconds

#19 Lori Bell on 11.09.15 at 7:31 pm

Hello
I am first to comment. Yeah Me as I have heard others who are first say the same thing.
I have been reading Garth Turner since 1998, demographics and this amazing humurouse and serious blog.
I am a Realtor. One Percent. I love what I do and Real Estate is such a big part of our society.
Garth – I have shared your link with so many. I appreciate you taking your time to share your knowledge with so many.

#20 rk usa on 11.09.15 at 7:36 pm

re: And if the Fed ups its key rate two or three times over the next year, then it’s pretty much certain the Bank of Canada will follow. How could it not, and still keep the dollar alive?

the Bank will do nothing for the next year, just what OECD says, they will let the CAD dive, at least for the next two years, a devalued dollar will help manufacturing sector meanwhile staving off a complete collapse in housing in short term

meanwhile real estate market will eventually collapse in two or three years under its own weight (i.e. unaffordability) and will be in the doldrums for a generation – some 20 years

#21 John on 11.09.15 at 7:37 pm

#11 WhyWorry?

Reason in March is easy. same reason as every year.

Winter!!!!!

#22 Mark on 11.09.15 at 7:38 pm

“A 1% mortgages rate increase on a $600,000 mortgage results in a payment increase of about $320 per month.”

Your math is a bit wonky. 1% of $600k is $6000. $6000 / 12 = ~$500/month.

The bigger ‘pain’ of course is that a lot of people with those $600k mortgages are in jobs that bear significant dependence on the FIRE or public sectors. Both of which are likely to suffer in a rising rate environment. So they face a sort of triple whammy — weakening income, weakening house prices, and higher finance costs.

Actually make that a quadruple whammy, because as lenders/investors sense decreasing creditworthiness amongst borrowers exposed to such predicament, they are likely to demand increasingly significant risk premia on credit granted to such borrowers. Credit standards and qualification requirements are highly cyclical over the long term, and I think people who haven’t experienced the ugly side of the cycle will be quite surprised what’s in store for them.

Ironically, it was the opposite forces which pushed house prices up so much in Canada. Loosening of credit standards, especially at the CMHC. Rising FIRE/public sector incomes enabled by lower interest rates. And increased investor enthusiasm for fixed income relative to ‘riskier’ asset classes such as stocks on account of the stock market’s poor performance. Hence, paradoxically, further re-enforcing poor stock market performance despite TSX-listed “Corporate Canada” significantly growing its annual earnings by nearly 4X over the past 15 years in the wake of the Nortel bust.

#23 Freedom First on 11.09.15 at 7:42 pm

Yes. Today’ post reminded me of something. Cash flow. Though for me it is always necessary to be liquid diversified and balanced, I must not forget the value and importance that cash flow provides in so many ways. From lifestyle to investing. Having cash and cash flow enables one to take advantage of opportunities in both as they present themselves. The payoffs in both are tremendous, and any idiot can practice these sound financial principles found here. I know. Works better than anything 100% of the time when practiced 100% of the time throughout your life. Rich people know this. The bloodsuckers and parasites don’t want you to know this.

#24 John on 11.09.15 at 7:45 pm

95% of everyone I know isn’t listening to any of this. Voice. Wilderness. Walking into the mess cueing their apps for something but not personal financial armageddon. They’ve told me they don’t want to hear it; 10 years on into this interest rate dead zone; can’t say I blame them for not believing it after so long at the trough. Thanks Garth but the majority don’t believe in consequences it seems.

#25 For those about to flop... on 11.09.15 at 7:46 pm

I understand that businesses want to get in early and get their fair share of the market but I think taking down Halloween decorations up putting up Xmas decorations the first week of November is too soon.
Middle of November after Remembrance Day ,with a tip of the hat to veterans that life is not all about money, should be the start of the 6 week assault on our wallets and t.vs. in my opinion.
Am I alone on this topic ?

#26 10% of the Time on 11.09.15 at 7:47 pm

BoC will not follow rate increases by FED.

This is the 10% of the time.

They’ve sacrificed he Loonie; 1.05 down to 0.75. What’s another 0.25?

Loonie will be in the 60’s.

Only industries left in Canada is Real Estate, Immigration, and policy protected oligopolies.

#27 rk usa on 11.09.15 at 7:47 pm

re: #9 TurnerNation on 11.09.15 at 7:15 pm

Kanadians…the only people stupid enough to pay almost $15 for a pint of beer in a chain restaurant. $9 + tax + tip. Could buy a 6 pack for that, down south.

OurWayOfLife.

I know I was up there a year or two ago and was out with friends the three of us had three pints a piece at some bs chain crap of a joint Kelsey’s or Milestones
and the bill was well over a $100, and the exchange was pretty much at par

crazy

not even peanuts on the counter

Canada the land of $15 pints and million dollar houses

how do you compete with that

#28 Adil on 11.09.15 at 7:55 pm

Wrong prediction again by oecd.
Us will not raise rates as next year is election year, let’s bet fortune on it. Grand mama is just trying to control Mr. market to run away and out of hands.
No rate increase is coming at least for one year.

#29 Newspapers aren't the place to find truth on 11.09.15 at 7:58 pm

“Witness the would be teachers and engineers on 3rd and 4th year machinist and welder fitter apprenticeships out on the floor where I work. ”

There seems to be a lot of misinformation sloshing around. All my son’s BC UNI’s cohort of teachers and engineers are being chased by international recruiters. Those with art degree’s and training as educators are especially sought after in the corporate world….average salary seems to start at $75,000 in Canada and more as ex pat professionals. Companies in Singapore have been recruiting like crazy….two close acquaintances have had their kids picked up in the past month.

Know a bit about the information trade I would caution people from believing the adver-articles that have been placed by special interest groups….like our unions and ‘working class’ political groups. Canada, unlike the US and many EU countries does not force advertisers to disclose what is journalism and what is junk placed by a paid publicist.

I remember when my so was in high school and the teachers were pushing ‘trades’ and persuading kids not to go to university….sure glad we didn’t listen.

Kids with recent degree’s have been brainwashed by leftist professors to join the lumpen proletariat…even though the professors themselves are deep in their feather beds and pensions.

Here’s the bottom line….two kids walk into a construction company office…one with a wrench and one with a degree…..the kid with the degree will eventually made manager and get the key to the executive office…the wrench monkey will always have to use the outhouse on the job site. Sorry Comrades…that’s just the way the world works.

Try to get an exciting job overseas as a plumbing apprentice….whereas there’s plenty of exciting jobs for uni grads.

While uni grads are making minimum $100,000 to work overseas….look at what a ‘trade ‘ sells for.

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Your comment is awaiting moderation.

#30 zee on 11.09.15 at 7:59 pm

Hey Garth

If rates rise in the way you are saying then Govt will loosen the lending regulation for mortgages. This is a given.

Govt cant afford to have a housing crash with an oil crash at the same time.

#31 Linda on 11.09.15 at 8:01 pm

If the NDP want a chance of being re-elected in Alberta, they will not bring in a sales tax. Regardless of whether it is the ‘right’ thing to do or not, Albertans will punish any government which brings in that tax. Though all the opposing parties would do the dance of joy if the NDP did do the dirty work – because they’d not repeal that tax once it came in, though they’d doubtless promise to reduce it or look into eliminating it during the next election campaign……

#32 Vundo on 11.09.15 at 8:04 pm

Did anyone tell those guys Alberta will be getting a sales tax? I hope not because it is not true. And all that whinging about scary socialist taxes and fearmongering over doing anything about climate change might go over well with Ezra Levant’s Twitter followers, but as someone who claims to have a lot of respect for Stèphane Dion, are you under the impression he would have governed differently than Trudeau if he (Dion) was able to beat Harper?

#33 10% of the Time on 11.09.15 at 8:05 pm

Plus there are 1 million refugees on the UN list that we have to help. Majority of these people are destined for Canada.

Air Canada will announce in Friday that 2 jumbo jets will fly one flight daily under contract with the Federal Government. 25,000 by Xmas. And 10,000 per month afterwards from what I’m hearing.

Housing in Vancouver and Toronto will be fine. It’s the rents that renters should worry about.

#34 Harbour on 11.09.15 at 8:05 pm

These Millennial types are to funny… rates will never go up… next comes minus rates… blah blah blah

I never thought 8% would go to 19% in my boomer era… but it did and left a swath of destruction with it.

#35 Linda on 11.09.15 at 8:05 pm

#16 Janet – I’m with Garth on this one. USA is still our largest trading partner, so as they go so do we. Oh, the Bank of Canada won’t want to raise the rates given our market fundamentals, but they haven’t a whole lot of wiggle room here. I’m not sure that a lower Canadian dollar would let them get out of raising the rates if the USA does it, even though they are about to embark on a tax & spend economic stimulus years after the USA did theirs in the hopes of replicating the results (growing economy, lower jobless rate, house prices climbing etc.)

#36 Twisting in the wind on 11.09.15 at 8:07 pm

I don’t think that the true fundamentals point to any such rate increases. But I do think that the US is hoping that if they raises rates, they will convince the rest of the world that their economy is in great shape and growing. So we will keep buying and selling each other stuff while emerging markets tank and capital investment flows back to the US. Maybe we will start importing again.

It’s either that or we will likely slide into ZIRP and QE4.

We are in a global GDP spiral with no end in sight, so the US is making their play. As Garth likes to say, don’t bet against the USA!

#37 Bear Trap on 11.09.15 at 8:12 pm

I think that this year was a classic bear trap, the people that waited and waited gave up when the rates dropped and bought. It is too bad that CMHC didn;t compensate when BoC dropped rates.
Regarding the interest rates … well i don;t think that is the trigger, just too much debt and the fact that houses will not appreciate anymore! Plus here on the west ciast: AB and SASK are suffering from OIL drop and BC will catch the cold from not much traffic in the Port of Vancouver

#38 Investorz on 11.09.15 at 8:13 pm

Bell laying off 350 employees in Toronto… even if their profits were amazing last quarter!

Now think about what companies with a weak stock price will do. Yes, more layoffs are coming.

I don’t think it’s the interest rates that will hurt the market first. Nope. It’s too obvious and the markets always surprise. It’s the jobs. In Toronto, financials will do more lay offs, and that will hurt.

Take a look for yourself, look at the stock of two popular investment firms right on Bay Street: Cannacord and Gluskin & Sheriff. Symbols CF.TO and GS.TO. Both down 30-60%. You think financials are doing well? Layoffs.

#39 Timberrrr on 11.09.15 at 8:14 pm

http://www.donttaxmydream.ca/

Even the Ontario RE Association (OREA) can see the storm clouds coming…

#40 Randy on 11.09.15 at 8:16 pm

The Thirty Year Bubble continues to grow…

#41 Skip Breakfast on 11.09.15 at 8:23 pm

Quote: “Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development says Ottawa had better start tightening up on mortgage lending and cooling off the house porn in 416 and 604, or troubles loom.”

Me: Sorry, I just am completely baffled by such edicts from the OECD or any other economic think-wank. Canada has been in a real estate bubble for nearly 10 years. At what point did it become necessary to “cool off the 416 and 604” lest we get ourselves into “trouble”?! Hasn’t the worst of the damage been done? Sure, go ahead, save at least one or two poor reckless morons from ruin today. Not saying that’s a bad thing. But it does nothing to save the MILLIONS who long ago got in over their head. There ain’t no saving them with policy now. It’s a done deal. So what are the OECD really saying then? Because surely they know we’re already pooched, and a few more or less walking dead won’t make a bit of difference.

And so I can only conclude that at this point they’re just trying to save their own skin. You know, where were they when it was just getting started? When it falls apart, they’ll claim, “oh we warned you a few months ago and you didn’t listen!” That’s supposed to make them look good, don’t ya know. We might even swallow their PR. We usually do. But the truth is the bubble became deadly years and years ago. And all the policy-makers let us walk blindly into this death trap. Don’t let them get away with pretending they care about the last few sorry souls now.

#42 Darryl on 11.09.15 at 8:24 pm

#9 … Kanadians…the only people stupid enough to pay almost $15 for a pint of beer…

Here in… as you say ‘Kanada’… we are allowed one free liver transplant per calendar year.

Find a $20… lose a $20…. enjoy your ice-water. LOL!

#43 Linda on 11.09.15 at 8:26 pm

Canada to take in 1 million refugees? Well, that is 4 years worth of immigration & this is how we’ve kept our population growth despite less than replacement baby rates all these years. Though I do think those refugees might wonder if they’ve made the right choice if they are arriving in Canada in winter. Be quite the shock to those raised in warmer climes, for sure.

#44 bdy sktrn on 11.09.15 at 8:26 pm

AB and SASK are suffering from OIL drop and BC will catch the cold from not much traffic in the Port of Vancouver
———————–
oil been in the tank for a year and 2015 port traffic is… wait for it… higher than anytime ever in history.

Port Metro Vancouver is the third largest port in North America in terms of total tonnage moved in and out of the port. We’re home to 27 major marine cargo terminals, three Class 1 railroads, and a full range of facilities and services to the international shipping community.

As the most diversified port in North America, we operate across five business sectors…

VANCOUVER (NEWS 1130) – Port Metro Vancouver says its total cargo in the first half of 2015 was slightly higher than a year earlier.

Vancouver-area docks saw an eight per cent increase in container traffic, which the port authority says “is likely due to the impact of cargo diverted to Vancouver earlier this year” from US ports that were hit by strikes. Also, year-earlier results were lowered by a truckers’ strike in Vancouver.

The 70.3 million metric tonnes of cargo was up 1.5 per cent, led by wheat, sulphur, potash, lumber and consumer goods. Outbound shipments of wheat soared 32 per cent.

Potash and potassium-based fertilizer exports were up 19 per cent while sulphur shipments rose 17 per cent. Auto volumes bounced back with a seven per cent gain while lumber increased by more than six per cent.

Falling commodity prices hurt some shipments. Port Metro says its tonnage of minerals sank 19 per cent while ore and concentrates dropped 12 per cent. Coal was down a relatively small two per cent.

#45 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 11.09.15 at 8:29 pm

HURRYING INTO YONDER DITCH MR T AND CO, AND THE REST, CHEERFULLY LUNGE

That’s what our tattered economy is doing right now.

It means those big campaign promises either won’t be happening or to the degree also promised.

YOU SEE…

The US Fed has little option but to fire up the interest rates (tightening monetary policy) because it needs wiggle room to bring rates down in the future if “something really bad economically happens,” the Fed has been saying, in so many words, for a long while now.

“#6 omg the original”…is whistling past the graveyard of broken real estate dreams, job losses, and so on, if he thinks tighter US and Canadian monetary policy will have only a salutory effect on the rest of us. Be assured, it won’t. As an aside the Bank of Mom and Dad will be the first casualty. No TBTF plan here!

Even if the US economy grows “at only two per cent” next year (a paltry growth rate based on history) it’ll STILL be more than the rest of the world combined by a country mile.

Why? Because the US dollar, being the world reserve currency, must be protected by all means including through tighter monetary policy implementation.

The resultant higher dollar will hurt US exporters but it will ALSO pound down commodity prices giving predictability to future inflation and hurt all other currencies to boot.

That’s what empires do.

Screw the colonists and other assorted foreign serfer classes (KXL included), and on with the really big shew!

That is what’s shakin’ out there boys and girls.

Mr. T and his earnest gang of do gooder social engineering students will be a worn out lot about six months from now.

WHY?

Because nothing they do will solve our economic problems. Our economy ain’t that big and our collective debt is a killer. Adding more debt is loonie-tunes.

ECONOMICS 101

Lesson#1 — You cannot borrow your way back to prosperity.

Lesson #2 — If you don’t believe me, refer to Lesson #1.

IN SUM

Whether debt-soaked Left Coasters in YVR or lattee sodden gender-confused wretches in YYZ the next four years will be a bitch living in that aforementioned economic ditch.

Bless all you borrowers out there, I think.

You’ll be getting what you deserve.

Why? Your actions of the last seven years have helped to wrought this financial monster/disaster.

Thanks.

#46 bdy sktrn on 11.09.15 at 8:29 pm

But it does nothing to save the MILLIONS who ***long ago*** got in over their head.

———————-
anybody got in in 604/416 “long ago” = stinking rich

what’s your problem with rich people?

#47 Mark on 11.09.15 at 8:36 pm

“And if the Fed ups its key rate two or three times over the next year, then it’s pretty much certain the Bank of Canada will follow. How could it not, and still keep the dollar alive?”

There are much stronger deflationary pressures in the Canadian economy than there is in the US economy. Deflation tends to help the value of a currency. So the BoC should be able to run far more accommodative policy than the Fed on account of Canada’s substantial investment over the past decade in export infrastructure. Particularly in the energy industry.

The weak CAD$ is largely a short-term thing. Much like the US experienced in the 2006-2008 timeframe prior to the panic in late 2008 which drove the USD$ very high on account of domestic demand for USD$ to repay debt.

Canadian mortgage rates may rise over the next 5 years, but most likely only on account of decreasing credit-worthiness concerns. Not due to policy rate changes.

“If rates rise in the way you are saying then Govt will loosen the lending regulation for mortgages. This is a given.”

I doubt there will be much appetite to allow an expansion of the CMHC when it starts constituting a $20-$30B/year drain on the finances of the GoC as the RE market continues to roll over and defaults accelerate.

The optics of writing huge cheques to Canada’s banks for defaulted mortgages will simply look way too bad for whatever government is in power. And history shows that once a housing market is past peak, which occurred in Canada a little over 2 years ago, reflation is very difficult if not impossible until such overcapacity is liquidated. 50k broke Syrians just won’t cut it, and ex-patriation might be an issue as well as the RE-led economy turns down in places like the GTA and GVR.

#48 Gregor Samsa on 11.09.15 at 8:40 pm

Great article on why Alberta is done for:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/oil-sands-no-longer-make-economic-sense/article27170104/

#49 Rexx Rock on 11.09.15 at 8:44 pm

There is no need to worry about rates going up in Canada.Poloz the clown wants to devalue the dollar even more so if the US raises rates the BOC will be ecstatic.They know Canadians can handle a 64 cent dollar like we’ve done in the past,no problem.If it drops below 60 cents than we have to worry.

#50 Fred on 11.09.15 at 8:49 pm

The Liberals will bail out the mortgages/home owners…they’ll prop up the greater fools

#51 David D on 11.09.15 at 8:50 pm

So, where does the Ottawa housing market stand in all this? Doesn’t look good either.

#52 Panhead on 11.09.15 at 8:50 pm

#27 rk usa on 11.09.15 at 7:47 pm

Canada the land of $15 pints and million dollar houses
____________________________________________

I take it that you didn’t buy any smokes then …

#53 Lee on 11.09.15 at 8:52 pm

Why do you love bad news so much.

#54 omg the original on 11.09.15 at 8:53 pm

Mark on 11.09.15 at 7:38 pm
“A 1% mortgages rate increase on a $600,000 mortgage results in a payment increase of about $320 per month.”

Your math is a bit wonky. 1% of $600k is $6000. $6000 / 12 = ~$500/month.

——————–

Mark – No the $320 is correct for a 1% increase in the RATE of a mortgage (going from 3% to 4%) – run it through a mortgage calculator to see.

Mortgage amortizations are based on a declining balance calculation not as if its a $600k perpetual line of credit that never gets paid down.

#55 cosequences on 11.09.15 at 8:54 pm

There are consequences of electing a tax-and-spend government just when your biggest trading partner is going in the opposite direction.

Luckily there are no consequences of electing a resource-selling-only government which tanks the entire economy just when your biggest trading partner is going in the opposite direction.

The need for tax-and-spend is direct result of the collapse of the non-diversified resource selling economy.

#56 Ret on 11.09.15 at 8:54 pm

I thought that a 1% increase on a $600,000 mortgage was $6,000 a year. Isn’t that $500 dollars a month? That would be $500 after tax dollars a month.

Am I missing something here?

#57 omg the original on 11.09.15 at 8:59 pm

zee on 11.09.15 at 7:59 pm

If rates rise in the way you are saying then Govt will loosen the lending regulation for mortgages. This is a given.

Govt cant afford to have a housing crash with an oil crash at the same time.
———————–

That’s exactly correct. At the first hint of housing market weakness we will see.

Return to 40 yr amortizations.

Pressure on banks to renegotiate mortgages.

And god forbid government assistance.

Just another couple reasons this will be a long, tedious rude down.

But markets are patient and will revert – it will take years to all unravel.

#58 Blah Blah on 11.09.15 at 9:02 pm

Really Garth? Every day you have to be bitter about the government Canadians have elected? That’s how democracy works, in exchange for giving you a vote that counts, you agree to accept the decision of the majority. The way you’re acting is extremely unbecoming. Do you mean to lay these things at Trudeau’s feet? Even partially? Because it’s starting to sound like it.

If you’re gonna be a bitter conservative go write for the Sun or something. I thought this blog was about real estate and personal finance, not the gospel of the holy MAR-KET.

We can’t all be cheerleader, kid. Besides, tax-and-spend almost never works. — Garth

#59 Nagraj on 11.09.15 at 9:05 pm

Okay, I’ve read “The Macro” twice, and I think VICTORIA REAL ESTATE UPDATE has got it quite right as to how the housing bubble pops (whereas you, OMG THE ORIGINAL, are too linguistically pushy with your opposing view to convince me) and I do appreciate all other serious concerns –

But I wanna talk about the Queen’s hairs.

Did you notice when the “gender-perfect” cabinet (honestly, GT, get over it) was sworn in, a whole lot of ’em swore allegiance not to her “heirs and successors” but her hairs and successors.
Those were the Francophones (including our “hot PM”, eat yer heart out Harley man). That’s cuz they were nervous and forgot that when it comes to pronouncing an initial h in English, heirs is an exception and is pronounced airs.
HA HA HA

Which naturally brings us all to the big portrait of Her Majesty in the lobby of the Pearson Bldg being RIPPED OFF THE WALL – but you can read about that on the CBC site or at the G&M.
My question is: who the heck DOESN’T know what the Queen of England looks like anyway? (Ever looked at our money, eh?)
[Makes me very uneasy when I walk into a place and there’s the Queen on the wall like Our Lady of Guadalupe or Kim II-Sung or Lenin.]

– the larger point being that this election was not about taxes, budgets, etc., for many people.
If yas don’t git that point, you’ll never understand why JT will be our Teflon PM, no matter how creepy things’ll get in East Van (wherever that is, probably west of Dufferin) or Etobichoke.

#60 Gulf Breeze on 11.09.15 at 9:07 pm

Gosh, you mean Harper style ‘borrow and spend’ beats tax and spend? How so?

Pity the wealthy. They have so much to lose, here in Canada. But they can always move to the U.S! Why they can even swap houses with the legions who will be clamouring to leave that God forsaken third world, gun blasting, cluster bomb dropping clustercluck of a nation!

Oh, not to mention drought stricken, verging on race war and out of control cops? What did I miss? Oh yes…the middle class is now paying double for health care, seeing as the republicans forced the universality clause out of the original bill?

In the interest of full disclosure — my business is down there and I have a house there. Would I ever in a million years go back there to live? Nope. Are they looking at a derivatives related new banking disaster? Yep. Is the reserve status of their dollar at risk? Yep. Just like oil. Thy are directly related. Read Ambrose Evans Pritchard. Oh and btw, he LOVES America.

#61 conan on 11.09.15 at 9:10 pm

Going to go out on a limb here and guess Garth is a dog fanatic.

On the other…….. eat broccoli……like a lot.

#62 Drill Baby Drill on 11.09.15 at 9:11 pm

20 years ago the Loonie was 60 cents.

#63 common sense on 11.09.15 at 9:11 pm

QE4 and NIRP within 2 years…why not? QE is NOT working anywhere else but no one has the sense and honesty to admit QE 1,2,3 had little lasting positive impacts on the economy. Sweden’s already in NIRP.

Things are not rosy ANYWHERE yet compared to others, the USA looks better than most.

Is it just me but finding just about anyone to admit they are wrong about anything is rare these days? I guess many follow the US FED in their personal life as well…A wise man once told me “It’s better to give the illusion of people thinking you know something than opening your mouth and confirming that you don’t.” Perfect.

As Lyle sang which sounds like Janet “She wasn’t good but she had good intentions…” If there is a way to get out of the so called December rate hike, she will…

#64 Alberta wing-nuts on 11.09.15 at 9:11 pm

Global warming will save Canadian real estate. Who can live in the 45C – 55C climates of India, Australia and much of Central & South America… No human can… They will gradually migrate north eventually ending up in Canada of course wanting in on the greatest family investment, a house… Baby-boom-bust theory be damned… It’s that simple…
Did I mention the abundance of fresh water at our finger tips… This global warming thing is happening at a more accelerated rate than even the experts predicted all to the benefits of Canada…
Welcome to the future, we will own it..!!!!

#65 Victor V on 11.09.15 at 9:11 pm

OECD’s warning of ‘sharp’ Toronto housing correction condemned by leading Canadian economist

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/oecds-warning-of-sharp-toronto-housing-correction-condemned-by-leading-canadian-economist&pubdate=2015-11-09

#66 Kenchie on 11.09.15 at 9:13 pm

“As many as 7 million possible customers for legal weed in Canada”

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/as-many-as-seven-million-possible-customers-for-legal-weed-in-canada-as-support-hits-new-heights-poll

#67 Timmy on 11.09.15 at 9:14 pm

With this rip-roaring economy firing on all cylinders that Stephen Harper left us with we will have to raise the interest rates buy huge amounts, so it will affect mortgages–yeah right, big deal a few percentage points at best

#68 omg the original on 11.09.15 at 9:17 pm

Victoria Real Estate Update on 11.09.15 at 7:13 pm

Diana Petramala of TD Economics recently explained that the two small rate drops earlier this year were “highly simulative.” Canada’s housing market received a significant boost from these two small rate drops

Naturally, each small increase in mortgage rates will impact Canada’s housing market in an EQUALLY POWERFUL AND OPPOSITE WAY.
————————-

What that fails to recognize is that house prices ratchet up quickly as peoples’ emotions are hijacked by the frenzy around the market. “Get in now or FOREVER BE PRICED OUT” is the mantra of the RE agent. People beleive it and rush out to buy. It creates a vicious price spiral up.

On the other hand, house prices are very sticky on the way down. People will do anything, absolutely anything, not to sell at a loss.

That’s why it takes years for the impact of things like unemployment or interest rate increases to decrease home prices.

Now a major correction will happen – Canada’s housing market by any metric is grossly inflated – but people should not expect it to happen quickly.

So stay renting and keep investing your savings.

#69 Musty Basement Dweller on 11.09.15 at 9:19 pm

Garth I am fully in the camp that all of this debt will cause a huge reckoning, especially for the indebted house horny. The hard part is when. Don’t you think the Liberals will just bring 40 year mortgages back when the going gets tough here ? No one seems to care about debt any more.

#70 Don't Drink The Kool-Aid on 11.09.15 at 9:21 pm

Please give your readers a quick explanation on how they come up with the “stunning US jobs report”. Let them decide for themselves if they should believe everything that you and the US pumps out. After “seasonal adjustments” and the birth/ death model are stripped out, the gain is pathetic.

#71 Victoria Real Estate Update on 11.09.15 at 9:23 pm

# 6 omg the original

What you write is beyond ridiculous. It’s hilarious.

“All of the people that I know who have bought big ticket houses over the past 5 years still:

– drive 2 late model cars
– have the newest cell phones on expensive contracts
– eat out several times a month
– have $180/m cable/internet packages
– go on expensive vacations.

Lots of room to cut expenses for most people. And that’s not even making a withdrawal from Bank of Mom.”

Proof? You have none. In fact the data that Garth provides on his blog tells the exact opposite story about the finances of Canadians.

I don’t think you read much of what Garth writes. Did you know that Canada was the only G7 country to be in recession in 2015?

Did you know that most Canadians couldn’t withstand going a very short time without a paycheque? That has a lot to do with Canadians being maxed out on mortgage debt.

Canadians are stretched to the maximum and Garth has written about studies that show this.

You obviously didn’t read Garth’s blog posts about how Canadians are moving up the real estate ladder with the help of the Bank of Mom. This has helped push mortgage debt higher in recent years at a remarkable pace. When even move-up buyers rely on the Bank of Mom it says a lot about how stretched Canadians are and how vulnerable they are to even the smallest increase in interest rates.

I like how you take a small number of people you know and say their finances are in good shape because of their cell phone plans and then try to extrapolate that across the entire Canadian population.

Your post is possibly the most ridiculous I’ve seen on this blog yet.

The facts remain: Canada’s housing bubble is, perhaps, the biggest the world has seen. All housing bubbles deflate and this always results in deep house price corrections.

There is no example of a national housing bubble that has deflated slowly. You haven’t been able to find one.

You are making a serious effort to protect your investment or perhaps you are a realtor. However, you need to learn how to argue with facts about Canadians in general and not with what cable/internet plans your friends have.

Who is going to take you seriously when that is what you use as the basis of your argument? Get a grip. lol

#72 Daisy Mae on 11.09.15 at 9:24 pm

“…Everybody looks at little Canada with its slagging economy, commodity fetish, hot PM and endless house lust, and says the same thing.”

********************

The ‘slagging economy, commodity fetish…and endless house lust’ is NOT Trudeau’s fault. But he’s inherited Harpers’ legacy. Shall we place the blame where it belongs?

#73 BS on 11.09.15 at 9:25 pm

There are consequences of electing a tax-and-spend government just when your biggest trading partner is going in the opposite direction.

Yup, and with the Obama era ending 12 months from now the optimism for the US economy will give the S&P 500 a big boost in the coming year. Then in 2017 with a new regime the US economy will further separate from Canada. While we are taxing, borrowing and increasing government under the Liberals the US will be producing.

#74 Mark on 11.09.15 at 9:25 pm

“Mark – No the $320 is correct for a 1% increase in the RATE of a mortgage (going from 3% to 4%) – run it through a mortgage calculator to see.”

Then such comes at the expense of accumulation of equity. Either way, its value out of the pocket of the mortgage payer. And in a rising interest rate environment, lenders are quite likely to be less tolerant of people who seek to minimize their repayment. The heavily promoted “Mortgage holidays” of the past are likely to disappear. A single payment missed might have the banks rapidly initiating proceedings to protect their rights where previously such lapses were allowed to slide. After all, the banks will be, when rates rise, holding obligations on their books that have yields less than current market yields.

#75 Ontario's Left Coast on 11.09.15 at 9:26 pm

#23 Femdom First – Cash Flow

Wait a minute, let me get this straight… So what you are telling us is that, if you have cash on hand, you will be able to take advantage of opportunities that come your way? Like, one could use that money to buy things that are for sale, so to speak? What a revelation! This is incredible!

From what mountaintop did you retrieve this nugget of wisdom, O blessed one? Somebody needs to give you a book deal quick, for stating something so unbelievably obvious. Can you please come back when you have something to say other than self-aggrandizement or thoughts that would be completely obvious to an average piece of lawn furniture? Thanks!

#76 Kenchie on 11.09.15 at 9:26 pm

“Hey, I wonder if anybody told these guys Alberta will be getting a sales tax just as its housing market falls apart? Or that CPP premiums will be going up for everybody, adding a thousand bucks to payroll taxes? Or how about the cap-and-trade carbon tax thingy our new climate change minister is cooking up in Paris? There are consequences of electing a tax-and-spend government just when your biggest trading partner is going in the opposite direction.”

Garth, a carbon tax would be significantly better than what Quebec and Ontario are doing.

Furthermore, it’s Harper’s fault that Keystone XL didn’t get passed. He didn’t recognize his own faults and how others perceived Canada’s lack of plan to cut greenhouse gases. Trudeau’s smart enough to not be quick to call out Obama, as recommended by the pen-jockeys in the MSM, because it’s a losing proposition.

Garth, with all due respect, you need to recognize that there’s no turning back when it comes to climate change now. It’s not 2006, or 2008, or 2011. The world has moved on. China and the US have moved on. Europe left a long time ago. Only Canada now, in 2015, is getting the message.

Furthermore, when the Libs didn’t provide a number for CPP increase, why are you using Harper’s made-up attack ad?

And lastly, since I make less than $200,000 and live in downtown Toronto, the Liberals aren’t “tax and spend”, they’re “tax-cut and invest”. But we’re all biased in our own ways.

#77 John on 11.09.15 at 9:28 pm

The fed will not / can not raises rates

#78 common sense on 11.09.15 at 9:30 pm

Anyone Blogdogs travel to Cuba? Off topic but…

With Venezuela close to defaulting and being Cuba’s biggest supporters since the Russian’s left years ago, thus far less $$ going to Cuba combined with the Cuban convertible Peso (pegged on the USD at $1.34 cdn = 1 CUC), there is going to be a LOT of desperate Cubans and staff at the various resorts this winter getting less support from the gov’t and far less tips going in their pockets from Cdn tourists..

Plan accordingly…

#79 Daisy Mae on 11.09.15 at 9:30 pm

#9: “Kanadians…the only people stupid enough to pay almost $15 for a pint of beer in a chain restaurant. $9 + tax + tip. Could buy a 6 pack for that, down south.”

*****************

Stupid, isn’t it? But that’s what credit cards are for — so painless. Until the card is maxed….

#80 Kenchie on 11.09.15 at 9:31 pm

For you boomers, this is your legacy:

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/we-are-moving-into-unchartered-territory-at-a-frightening-speed-greenhouse-gases-hit-new-high

#81 Zorba on 11.09.15 at 9:32 pm

No rate hike in december,Garth.

#82 Porsche on 11.09.15 at 9:35 pm

Are you going to pay 600K plus the extra $$$$ for a box if it’s not going to make you a return?

Nope

#83 balanced budget on 11.09.15 at 9:36 pm

#65 Kenchie

“As many as 7 million possible customers for legal weed in Canada”

Hopefully more for medical marijuana – it may just help to balance the budget.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hmYNLNF7NBw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfO_MpDm5kc

#84 Johnny d on 11.09.15 at 9:37 pm

REITs taking it on the chin. XRE got pounded over the last week. Time to bail? Or knee jerk over reaction?

#85 AB Boxster on 11.09.15 at 9:39 pm

#55 Ret
————–
You are correct that the interest paid will increase by $600 per month.
But the monthly payment for the mortgage includes interest and principal.
On a declining balance mortgage the total payment goes up, but with an increase in rates the amount paid to interest will increase by $600 and less will go to principal balance of the debt.
The total amount of interest paid over the full length of the loan is much higher, but the monthly payment does not rise by the full amount of increase.

#86 Kenchie on 11.09.15 at 9:41 pm

And this is why China is more willing to put the environment ahead of it’s economy going forward…

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/doomsday-smog-shenyang-records-worst-air-pollution-reading-since-china-started-monitoring-smog

#87 Rational Optimist on 11.09.15 at 9:46 pm

61 Drill Baby Drill on 11.09.15 at 9:11 pm

“20 years ago the Loonie was 60 cents.”

More like fifteen. The Bank is perfectly capable of murdering the loonie. We all remember when it was in the 60 cent range. Most of us think a weak currency is a good idea (maybe it is: easier than improving productivity). So I don’t think they’ll have a problem with it.

But they can’t control long-term interest rates, and those are going to keep going up. And eventually the loonie will get too low even for the Governor, and so will short-term rates.

#88 The real Kip on 11.09.15 at 9:52 pm

Yellen is in a tough spot now. The American economy is not as strong as you suggest yet she’s talked this rate increase right into the stratosphere. They must increase it now or lose face yet the mere suggestion of it causes markets to wobble as they did today.

I say no rate increase in December.

#89 Slim on 11.09.15 at 9:57 pm

#29 Newspapers aren’t the place to find truth

*********************************************************

“We’re going to need an estimated 1.05 million new nurses by 2022. According to the American Association of Colleges of Nursing, the shortage is due to a shortage of nursing faculty, restricted enrollment numbers, and an aging workforce:

According to a 2013 survey conducted by the National Council of State Boards of Nursing and The Forum of State Nursing Workforce Centers, 55% of the RN workforce is age 50 or older.

The Health Resources and Services Administration projects that more than 1 million registered nurses will reach retirement age within the next 10 to 15 years.

With 2022 and 2025 on the horizon, we need to get some of our youth on the path to medical and nursing school—STAT!”

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2015/3/4/1368529/-The-U-S-is-facing-a-massive-shortage-of-doctors-in-the-next-10-years

#90 Fuzzy Camel on 11.09.15 at 9:59 pm

As soon as Kathleen Wynne got in I sold my house.

She is going to put in all sorts of stealth taxes targeting specifically men who work in the private sector. She will tax electricity, put tolls of roads, tax beer, increase land transfer tax, anything she thinks men use most.

If the interest rates don’t crash the housing market, the sky high taxes will cause many people to try to downsize to smaller houses hoping to make ends meet, this is the rush to the door I see which will trigger the crash.

#91 Kenchie on 11.09.15 at 10:00 pm

#62 common sense on 11.09.15 at 9:11 pm
“QE4 and NIRP within 2 years…why not? QE is NOT working anywhere else but no one has the sense and honesty to admit QE 1,2,3 had little lasting positive impacts on the economy. Sweden’s already in NIRP.”

So if you’re saying Q1-3 didn’t work, why would Q4 and NIRP magically lead to something better?

Furthermore, according to Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, the Eurozone QE is working with the result of M3 money supply growing again.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11973507/Ill-eat-my-hat-if-we-are-any-where-near-a-global-recession.html

Sweden’s got NIRP because so much capital came into the country from the Eurozone that pushed bond values up to make their YTM negative. That said, only up to their 2-year notes are negative, while Switzerland (also had lots of Eurozone safe haven capital go towards it) has negative bond yields to the 10-year notes.

———————————————————–

“Things are not rosy ANYWHERE yet compared to others, the USA looks better than most.”

And thus, capital is going towards it… As Garth mentioned many times.

#92 Snowboid on 11.09.15 at 10:00 pm

#27 rk usa on 11.09.15 at 7:47 pm…

re: #9 TurnerNation on 11.09.15 at 7:15 pm

Pints at the local beer/wine store in Glendale are about $ 1.10 CAD each in a case of 20.

Although food and booze are up slightly in the Valley of the Sun, it’s nothing compared to Canuckistan.

Plus the sales, specials, coupons, etc are amazing here.

Most ‘stack’ unlike north of the 49th. We also get 10% off as seniors once a month at our local supermarket, most specials included.

We stacked for some smaller kitchen appliances last year, $ 100US for $ 400US retail.

My better half beat that today – stacked some at a local clothing store and walked out with $ 100 worth of misc clothing for -$1.10 – yes after they added up the voucher, coupon and second voucher stacked on the first she left with a credit. Not to mention that their retail prices here are still about 10-15% less than Canada, even with the crappy exchange rate.

How can anyone compete with that?

#93 Freedom First on 11.09.15 at 10:01 pm

#49 Fred

No Fred. You have not been paying attention to recent housing crashes world wide and through history. Citizens are not too big to fail. They are not the ones to receive bailouts. Fred. Look in the mirror. You are responsible for you.

#94 Retired WI Boomer on 11.09.15 at 10:07 pm

Not a good day. Several issues around the house that need attention. Nothing major, just those annoying things that grab the top lines on any guy’s “honey do list.” A garage door opener spring broke, kitchen faucet leaking. Then the electric windows on the old Chevy decided it’s a holiday…
So off to the hardware place for some stuff.

Ah, the joys?? of home ownership…. when I could maybe have called a landlord. Who knows? And why keep a car 12 years when there is no need?

Ah, to be the ‘moist millennial’ ready to commit financial hare-kari, rather than the grizzled coot shuffling along.

These problems are so puny, and pathetic. Come back when you have some REAL issues. Time for a Brandy.

#95 I'm stupid on 11.09.15 at 10:09 pm

Garth can you comment on the last part of the linked story. Is it possible that our sefie PM would actually try to protect reckless borrowing by trying to run a program that adjusts the principle loan based on new property value?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/the-real-estate-beat/housing-crash-would-sink-young-canadian-homeowners-study-finds/article27169891/?service=mobile

No it is not possible. Are we are truly screwed. — Garth

#96 Kenchie on 11.09.15 at 10:13 pm

#69 Don’t Drink The Kool-Aid on 11.09.15 at 9:21 pm
“Please give your readers a quick explanation on how they come up with the “stunning US jobs report”. Let them decide for themselves if they should believe everything that you and the US pumps out. After “seasonal adjustments” and the birth/ death model are stripped out, the gain is pathetic.”

Excuses, excuses… The methodology doesn’t change from month to month, so don’t try to make excuses such as “if you strip out…”, as Paul Craig Roberts said, it makes it a “pathetic” report. With that attitude, you’d think 1,000,000 jobs is “pathetic”, despite it being unrealistic.

Furthermore, if you ACTUALLY do look at the jobs report without seasonal adjustments, the number of employed Americans is actually up 736,000 month-over-month.

Look for yourself: “Total, 16 and over” under September 2015 and October 2015, “Not Seasonally Adjusted”
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t09.htm

#97 Mark on 11.09.15 at 10:16 pm

“The Bank is perfectly capable of murdering the loonie. “

Really? Did the BoC engage in any policy actions in the 1990s that actually had the goal of ‘murdering the loonie’? Or did the loonie merely collapse because of the confluence of a very strong US export sector and strong US dollar, and a depression in the prices of Canadian resource exports?

IMHO, central bankers and interest rates don’t influence currencies nearly as much as you may believe. In Canada’s case, our overall economic mix was exposed as being very disfavourable. The CAD$ suffered as a result. Today’s weakness in the loonie is largely an artifact of traders making extreme algorithmic bets on US interest rate increases (largely not justified by the data) and the lack of significant debt-induced consumption implosion in Canada. But it is fairly obvious to most greaterfool blog readers that the RE-led economy is decelerating rapidly, and personal consumption is likely to follow.

#98 Kenchie on 11.09.15 at 10:18 pm

#87 The real Kip on 11.09.15 at 9:52 pm
“Yellen is in a tough spot now. The American economy is not as strong as you suggest yet she’s talked this rate increase right into the stratosphere. They must increase it now or lose face yet the mere suggestion of it causes markets to wobble as they did today.

I say no rate increase in December.”

LOL! 0.50%, or a 25 basis point increase is “the stratosphere”!! holy hyperbole Batman! Guess this person hasn’t seen historical interest rates before!

#99 Kenchie on 11.09.15 at 10:23 pm

#63 Alberta wing-nuts on 11.09.15 at 9:11 pm
“Global warming will save Canadian real estate. Who can live in the 45C – 55C climates of India, Australia and much of Central & South America… No human can… They will gradually migrate north eventually ending up in Canada of course wanting in on the greatest family investment, a house… Baby-boom-bust theory be damned… It’s that simple…
Did I mention the abundance of fresh water at our finger tips… This global warming thing is happening at a more accelerated rate than even the experts predicted all to the benefits of Canada…
Welcome to the future, we will own it..!!!!”

Perhaps in the 24th century… Climate Change isn’t that quick…

#100 Mike C on 11.09.15 at 10:23 pm

Trouble looms in the 416 and 604?

I’ll have to disagree. Here in the 416 not a day goes by that I don’t see over a dozen Porsches and a Bentley or two. $7 Starbucks grande lattes everywhere.

For the uninformed, common sense should dictate by now, that any potential, if improbable trouble in RE may, perhaps one day, occur anywhere EXCEPT the 416 and the 604.

Any hypothetical 20% discounts will be in the form of a cheaper loonie. Everything else is wishful thinking greater fools will continue to indulge in.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day, but a malfunctioning one…

#101 Valleyboy. on 11.09.15 at 10:23 pm

So if rates rise does this mean interest on the U.S. Debt and our debt will increase? If so can the U.S. Actually afford to pay the bill?

#102 Smoking Man on 11.09.15 at 10:31 pm

Have any of you arm chair economics doctors read the TPP.

What I like about it..it’s going to be interesting to see what Justina does.

No chance for carbon tax..Paris conference meaningless. Tree Huggers so close to the finish line, but they will be over ruled by secret binding tribunal.
Keystone will live.

Bahaha.

I’ve Always said you can’t beat the Machine..
And you can’t.

#103 Drill Baby Drill on 11.09.15 at 10:32 pm

When the Loonie was last in the low 60 cent range the Liberals were in power. Jean Chretien relied on the ultra low dollar to cover for the Canadian export industries inefficiencies rather than stimulate investments such as automation to increase productivity. We are now in the same boat (oil & gas is highly automated that is the business I am in) with no real manufacturing exporting advantage other than a low Loonie. We repeat this mistake constantly plus add in the higher Ontario electricity costs. We are truly screwed.

#104 dubalin furstein on 11.09.15 at 10:34 pm

“Emerging market currencies fell as a result.-Garth”

Gartho, Da loonie is now basically an emerging market currency (you don’t believe me, plot it on achart against some of the asean currencies and see the amziang correlation)

The way for Trudeau to get around this (in case he is reading), is to declare that Canada is leaving the OECD, G7 etc and is self-declaring as an emerging market. Even better, make up some funky name like “re-emerging market” and then crash the economy, before rebuilding it…and then rejoin the big boys like the G7, OECD, 20-25 years down the road…..by that time Trudeaumania 3 should be under way, and the family could claim that it was all part of the big picture!

#105 common sense on 11.09.15 at 10:36 pm

#90 Kenchie

Thank you for the posts…

I “think” money is flowing BACK to the USA as the baby boomers are getting older in the USA (and developed markets) are reducing their money in EM’s…not really as a result of anything overly investment worthy in the USA, rather time to reduce (not cash out fully) stock market investments exposure…some money is taken out to live on, some placed in zero interest savings…this flow of capital is just starting to flow back and will continue the next 10-15 years years based on demographics alone.

Will it positively affect the US markets? A bit but not enough investment to fuel enough growth that is so desperately needed…The same situation as Japan has been in for years and is currently taking place in Russia, Europe, etc…

#106 45north on 11.09.15 at 10:36 pm

the Government of Canada is spending a lot on a new e-mail system:

http://ssc-spc.gc.ca/pages/mlobj-crrlobj-eng.html

It is anticipated that the Email Transformation Initiative will result in $50 million in savings annually upon implementation.

I very much doubt that it will save $50 million a year

– all the departments already have e-mail systems

– the biggest time waster is junk e-mail. the new system isn’t going to help that

– the systems aren’t that costly to maintain. Biggest cost is entering new employees, name changes. That’s still going to happen with the new system. Only slower.

– Canadians can already send e-mails to gov employees.

– each gov department already deals with security of its own system. Each department has different requirements. I mean if Agriculture’s e-mail server goes down it’s no big deal. By the way I do remember the e-mail server in Brandon Manitoba going down for the morning. Nobody cares! Further it sounds like this will be very costly because all departments will have a super secure system when only a few need it. Further because each department has its own system when one goes down they don’t all go down. security through diversity

the real issue is how does the public communicate with the civil service? By and large very well. The biggest problem that I saw was the difficulty of scientists publishing their material. The new system doesn’t address that.

#107 Kenchie on 11.09.15 at 10:36 pm

Great read for anyone who is interested in the boomer generation:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/11/05/baby-boomers-are-whats-wrong-with-americas-economy/

I think your own generation has its flaws. Work on those. — Garth

#108 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 11.09.15 at 10:37 pm

“And while higher rates are a signal the American economy is now wearing its big-boy pants and doesn’t need as much stimulus”

Garth,
You seem to have rose coloured glasses for the US economy. There are 94 million employed in the US same as 37 years ago. The difference is that now there are 320 million people in the US, up a full 100 million.

Even in this century, the jobs lost have been high paying bread winner jobs and those gained are most leisure (crappy bar tending gigs that pay poorly).

I agree that US may not be in a recession although the “recovery” is long in the tooth. They are growing despite the radicalism of the FED, whose bloated balance sheet is obscene.

Alas, the FED has been a _ _ _ _ tease for nearly two years, and I am surprised by how sure you are they will raise this year. It must be truly frightening to contemplate a raise from the current 12 bps to 25 bps.

#109 Nemesis on 11.09.15 at 10:40 pm

“Damn good thing we can survive on exports of “Love it Or List it.” – HonGT

#ItWasn’tAlwaysThatWay…

https://youtu.be/naSsWw4XdPc

[NoteToSnowBoid: RobertClothier’s [Relic’s] boat was powered by a re-cycled De Tomaso Pantera’s Ford 351 Cleveland… Personally, I still prefer the Windsor 351.]

#110 alpomarx on 11.09.15 at 10:41 pm

The young lad in the photo has been instructed by his parents to be nice to the dog and cat in the house, as they will soon be sharing food with them in order to cut down costs and help dampen the financial hit from raising rates…

#111 common sense on 11.09.15 at 10:43 pm

Kenchie #97

Sadly a .25 raise in rates is causing the world’s market to THINK this puny raise IS into the Stratosphere…after how many YEARS?

THAT’s what’s scary….imagine if she said .75 rate increase in the next year? Heads would explode…

“Normal” historical rates of even a puny 3%? Please.

Past performance dues not indicate future results, I imagine for a loooooooong time…

#112 Drill Baby Drill on 11.09.15 at 10:46 pm

The lead up to these international climate change metings has always been the same. Pump up the rhetoric, the sky is falling, we must raise taxes etc.
China creates 70% of all CO2 emissions on earth yet they are givena pass on this round of negotiations. The Sumatran man made forest fires for the creation of new palm oil plantation puts out more CO2 in 1 month than Germany does in 1 year. Neither of these issues are on the Paris agenda. The reason is that they want to go after the countries that can easily be taxed to help support another bureaucracy.

#113 Big Dipper on 11.09.15 at 10:48 pm

Interesting blog except, as often, your evidence based data gets contaminated with rank ideology and losers venom:

-“Canada’s shiny new, gender-perfect T2 cabinet”

Nice misogynist sneering attack on the current cabinet composition

-“hot PM”

I understand; you think he’s hot. No need to publicly state that.

-“I wonder if anybody told these guys Alberta will be getting a sales tax just as its housing market falls apart?

Did I miss something? Do you live in an alternate universe? No sales tax mentioned anywhere by the Alta Dippers. Pure fear mongering

-“Or that CPP premiums will be going up for everybody, adding a thousand bucks to payroll taxes?”

Say what? Please keep the fabrications to a minimum. So such premium increase has been identified. Besides, insurance premiums are not a tax. I know, I know, You don’t like government pensions…

-”Or how about the cap-and-trade carbon tax thingy our new climate change minister is cooking up in Paris?”

Like the hopy changy thingy?
Please keep it original. There is no cap and trade proposal cooked up. But this plays well with the climate change deniers amongst you followers.

-”consequences of electing a tax-and-spend government”

Now we’re getting to the root of the issue. Stupid Canadians stupidly elected a government that will do stupid things. I know, it hurts.

You actually think you matter. Later you’ll understand none of us do. — Garth

#114 Brian Ripley on 11.09.15 at 10:49 pm

My Canadian Yield Curve chart…

http://www.chpc.biz/yield-curve.html

…does not show the November data (updates are monthly), but it looks like the bottom in rates across the curve was in 1Q 2015 and by 4Q a marginally higher low has been put in place. The same thing on my “real” rate charts.

The current action in rates in the last week is going to make this chart pop.

#115 Darryl on 11.09.15 at 10:50 pm

#27 rk usa… “how do you compete with that”

Oh I don’t know… ask Target.

#116 S.Bby on 11.09.15 at 10:51 pm

#99 Mike C
Yes, twelve Porsches and one or two Bentleys is certainly an indication… of nothing.

#117 tri state pat on 11.09.15 at 10:51 pm

What a beautiful dog!

#118 alpomarx on 11.09.15 at 10:54 pm

#53 omg the original on 11.09.15 at 8:53 pm
Mark on 11.09.15 at 7:38 pm
“A 1% mortgages rate increase on a $600,000 mortgage results in a payment increase of about $320 per month.”

Your math is a bit wonky. 1% of $600k is $6000. $6000 / 12 = ~$500/month.

——————–

Mark – No the $320 is correct for a 1% increase in the RATE of a mortgage (going from 3% to 4%) – run it through a mortgage calculator to see.

Mortgage amortizations are based on a declining balance calculation not as if its a $600k perpetual line of credit that never gets paid down…”

That’s it, I will never consider Mark to be a financial wizard again…..I mean c’mon straight line amortizations????? and what about that loonie…same sort of bogus analysis leading to erroneous forecasts????

#119 Kenchie on 11.09.15 at 10:57 pm

“The Return of London’s Fog”

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/08/opinion/sunday/the-return-of-londons-fog.html?ribbon-ad-idx=14&rref=opinion&module=Ribbon&version=context&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Opinion&pgtype=article&_r=0

#120 nonplused on 11.09.15 at 10:58 pm

“gender-perfect T2 cabinet” – yeeash.

I could see expecting the cabinet to be roughly proportional to the elected party members, but 50/50 when the elected members aren’t even close? What are they going to do next, legislate that 50% of all garbage collectors have to be women? What about the people that drive the suck trucks? Do they need to be 50% women too?

A bet the women Justin picked are the pretty ones. Kudos to our prime Philanderer. He’s so dreamy.

This stuff is all getting silly. A college here in town just recently started giving women seniority for the time they spend on mat-leave. I guess that’s fair if men can now also earn seniority if they take mat-leave or other voluntary time off. But when it gets down to arguing about this sort of minutia we must be most of the way there. These really are first world problems.

#121 alpomarx on 11.09.15 at 10:59 pm

#89 Fuzzy Camel on 11.09.15 at 9:59 pm
As soon as Kathleen Wynne got in I sold my house.

She is going to put in all sorts of stealth taxes targeting specifically men who work in the private sector. She will tax electricity, put tolls of roads, tax beer, increase land transfer tax, anything she thinks men use most.”

Don’t forget hockey sticks!

#122 tom black on 11.09.15 at 11:10 pm

I don’t believe the jobs numbers, they certainly did not create almost 300,000 well paid jobs not to mention hired a demographic that badly needs those jobs. US is on its knees..

I’ve said before though that a rate rise might be on the table in December, why you ask? data dependant I guess, even if the data is nonsense..

anyway nothing makes sense anymore..

horrible months ahead of us.. anyone else feel there might be a rush into commodity stocks?

Tom

#123 Alvina Knows on 11.09.15 at 11:12 pm

#22 Mark

“Your math is a bit wonky. 1% of $600k is $6000. $6000 / 12 = ~$500/month.”

You go to all that trouble, and even show your 4th grade math, and you get it wrong.

How will we ever respect your posts!

/Alvina.

#124 Nora Lenderby on 11.09.15 at 11:16 pm

#63 Alberta wing-nuts on 11.09.15 at 9:11 pm
Global warming will save Canadian real estate…This global warming thing is happening at a more accelerated rate than even the experts predicted all to the benefits of Canada…

Let’s see if I can summarize the “Greater Fool Great Canadian climate debate” so far (missing out those boring, conformist, witless liberals and Allied Progressives, but including trolls who are now indistinguishable from anyone else):

1. Not happening…
2. A conspiracy by corrupt, smart people…
3. Happening, but not our fault..
4. Happening, our fault, but nothing compared to what other people are doing…
5. Happening, our fault, but nothing we can do…
6. Happening, our fault, but we don’t want to do what needs to be done…
7. It’s happening and we own it, woot!

A warning: My secret army of migrant followers are coming for you!

#125 Mark on 11.09.15 at 11:20 pm

” I’ll have to disagree. Here in the 416 not a day goes by that I don’t see over a dozen Porsches and a Bentley or two. $7 Starbucks grande lattes everywhere.”

So? There will always be rich people in any given economy. Some of them choose to buy high end cars. Some not. People who get rich through the stock market are just as capable of high end luxury consumption as those who attained a lot of wealth through real estate.

Personal wealth creation through ownership of businesses, especially at today’s low prices, is far more likely than wealth creation in declining real estate. The beauty of debt-implosion fuelled asset bubble deflations is that plenty of assets are likely to go on sale at far less than their depreciated replacement cost. Meaning that those with liquidity (ie: cash, gold, etc.) or countercyclical assets are likely to be able to pick up great bargains in the future.

#126 Smoking Man on 11.09.15 at 11:22 pm

You all want to know, how I know a rate cut by BOC is imment.

MSM talking down the housing market.. In Toronto and BC.
…….

What is it that I love about Putin…He’s mans man. Not a pink shirt urbinite.

He’s kicking the shit out of the machine in the Middle East.

Now first ten Minutes of the National, Russian Dopping in sports rampent.

Tomorrow John McCain will say it was Putin’s Doing..

Yes we can’t beat the machine, but judging by Putin’s constant bitch slapping I’m thinking, Machine scared shitless of him…

Go Vlad go, make it honourable for a men to howel at the moon again.

#127 Kenchie on 11.09.15 at 11:30 pm

#106 Kenchie on 11.09.15 at 10:36 pm
“Great read for anyone who is interested in the boomer generation:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/11/05/baby-boomers-are-whats-wrong-with-americas-economy/

I think your own generation has its flaws. Work on those. — Garth”

We certainly due. But we’re not the cause of the majority of the world’s problems (yet!). In time, we will be though, lol!

#128 Victoria Real Estate Update on 11.09.15 at 11:30 pm

# 67 omg the original

“On the other hand, house prices are sticky on the way down. People will do anything, absolutely anything, not to sell at a loss.”

You forget that house prices crashed in Victoria, Vancouver, Edmonton and Calgary in the 1980s and Toronto in the 1990s.

Major price corrections have happened before in Canadian cities and they were not slow.

Canadians back then probably did all they could to avoid selling at a loss. That didn’t stop the (not slow) price corrections from taking place.

Housing markets in Japan, Ireland, the US, Iceland, Greece, Spain and many other countries all went through major price corrections/crashes that were not slow.

To claim, as you do, that Canadians are different would mean that you assume that people in these countries didn’t do all they could to avoid selling at a loss.

You can’t assume that modern-day Canadians are the only people in the history of the world who would do all they could to avoid selling at a loss.

Perhaps you should consider widening your perspective a little and start looking at the bigger picture – the rest of the world.

I doubt many people are taking you serious now that you’ve tried to use your friends’ cell contracts and cable/internet plans to prove that ALL Canadians are in good shape financially, making Canada’s housing market immune from a major (not slow) price correction.

The more you write the worse it gets for you. Do you even realize how ridiculous you sounded?

Keep living in denial that there’s no chance that you’ll have to sell and take a major financial hit after house prices go through a deep correction (that’s not slow).

If you are a realtor, keep telling potential buyers the same BS that you write on this blog. Whatever makes you feel whole.

#129 MF on 11.09.15 at 11:31 pm

#99 Mike C on 11.09.15 at 10:23 pm

Means sh*t if you see a few Bentley’s outside.

We’ve gone through this before in the past. There were Bentley’s in 1989 and it came crashing down then just as it will again.

It’s all driven by debt. It all looks so great until it comes crashing down.

Tdot right now is like the 3/4 point of the Wolf of Wall Street. It all looks great on the outside but is slowly rotting on the inside.

My boomer parents and all the boomers on here have seen it all before. Always the same end result without fail.

#79 Kenchie on 11.09.15 at 9:31 pm

Lol our generation is by far the dumbest that has ever existed.

It’s not our fault really. No depression, we didn’t have to fight nazi’s and communists. We came of age in the late 80’s-90’s -a great time to be in the west. Our boomer parents coddled us and had decent jobs (at least mine did). So I don’t blame anyone really. Majority of us have our head in the economic sand though.

You and I are the exception because we are on this blog, of course!

MF

#130 Roial1 on 11.09.15 at 11:38 pm

#98 Kenchie on 11.09.15 at 10:23 pm
Perhaps in the 24th century… Climate Change isn’t that quick…
————————————————————–
Sorry to disagree with you BUT, it is accelerating FAR faster than any of the early reports stated.
The tundra is melting and exuding vast quantities of methane far faster than the scientists first thought.
Methane is a carbon gas that will hold in much more infrared than just the carbon we produce now. And it can NOT be stopped. The man generated greenhouse is now almost unstoppable without extreme measures by us NOW.

It will not happen.

It really is time to bend over and kiss your ass goodbye

(I am over 70 so may live out my life without too much distress) The rest of you maybe not so much.

#131 Kenchie on 11.09.15 at 11:40 pm

#99 Mike C on 11.09.15 at 10:23 pm
“Trouble looms in the 416 and 604?

I’ll have to disagree. Here in the 416 not a day goes by that I don’t see over a dozen Porsches and a Bentley or two. $7 Starbucks grande lattes everywhere.

For the uninformed, common sense should dictate by now, that any potential, if improbable trouble in RE may, perhaps one day, occur anywhere EXCEPT the 416 and the 604.

Any hypothetical 20% discounts will be in the form of a cheaper loonie. Everything else is wishful thinking greater fools will continue to indulge in.”

That’s a lot of confidence in your script, there…

A Bentley or Porsche a day doesn’t mean anything. Just being some people are rich doesn’t mean most people are rich. And some of the lowest paid people I know drink $5-$7 lattes, so that’s certainly not a barometer of financial well-being.

The reality in the 604 is that almost half the city of Van now requires a basement suite income to pay the mortgage. That’s not a good description of rich people.

Humans are humans and when fear sets in, it doesn’t matter whether they live in the 416, 604, 514, 403, 204, 613, 780, or 902. People act the same: stop buying. It happens once a generation. Millennials will live through it sooner or later.

#132 bdy sktrn on 11.09.15 at 11:44 pm

#243 Ontario’s Left Coast on 11.09.15 at 7:44 pm
#235 bdy sktrn

By any chance, would you consider adopting a human? :)
——————————-
ha! my wife always says that after she dies she wants to come back as one of my dogs…

ps: we did look into adopting a human (for real) but seemingly power hungry people who seemed to have not the first clue about raising a child put up many many roadblocks and the system makes you take all the responsibility but takes away most all of the decision making power any ‘real’ parent has. shocking and shameful i would say – sadly now one dog and one kid who could have had the perfect life got the shaft.

#133 Mark on 11.09.15 at 11:45 pm

http://www.leaderpost.com/business/agriculture/housing+starts+drop+october/11505224/story.html

“Regina home builders started construction on 94 housing units in October, less than one third of the 305 total starts for the same period last year, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC).”

Kerplunk!

#134 Doug in London on 11.09.15 at 11:53 pm

@Johnny d, post #83:
Why would you EVER want to bail now? Can’t you see REITs are on sale? NOW is the time to BUY! If you missed the Black Friday blowoff sales on REITs 2 years ago, now you are getting a second chance! I never again thought I would see CAR.UN below $26.00. Amazing, it’s the next best thing to backwards time travel!

#135 pwn3d on 11.09.15 at 11:59 pm

#117 alpomarx on 11.09.15 at 10:54 pm

That’s it, I will never consider Mark to be a financial wizard again…..I mean c’mon straight line amortizations????? and what about that loonie…same sort of bogus analysis leading to erroneous forecasts????
——————————-
lol, dude I wouldn’t admit you considered Mark to be a financial wizard, that’s like saying I consider Pauly Shore to be a good actor.

In fact I would take financial advice from Pauly Shore before I would Mark.

#136 Frank on 11.10.15 at 12:03 am

#5 Victoria Real Estate Update

Lol, I like that you post a ‘fact’ on blog comments and link a previous blog post as proof. Don’t worry stopped clock, you’ll be right soon.

#137 tundra pete on 11.10.15 at 12:10 am

#25 for those about to flop.
Agree with you 100%. However, Canadian Tire has been saying “scrooge approved” on Nov 1 for at least the last 20 years! No less than completely disrespectful to those who have served us.

Gotta remember, the only thing that matters to any corporation, at any time , for any reason whatsoever is the buck. All else will be sacrificed by any means possible at any time for any reason. Once you put this thought first and foremost in your mind, the rest is a piece of cake.

This is why interest rates will certainly rise. Just to make more money. The interest payments will not phase the fed as they control the money, print it, create it, whatever you want to call it. It really is a game. Just learn how to make money off of it.

There are very few people who control all the money.

#138 bdy sktrn on 11.10.15 at 12:19 am

#74 Ontario’s Left Coast on 11.09.15 at 9:26 pm
#23 Femdom First – Cash Flow

,… something to say other than self-aggrandizement or thoughts that would be completely obvious to an average piece of lawn furniture? Thanks!
————————–
you expect too much.

FF was on his own since 17, and looks out for his freedom first, always, but has made it clear that he ain’t too bright.

#139 Smoking Man on 11.10.15 at 12:21 am

#129 Roial1 on 11.09.15 at 11:38 pm
#98 Kenchie on 11.09.15 at 10:23 pm
Perhaps in the 24th century… Climate Change isn’t that quick…
————————————————————–
Sorry to disagree with you BUT, it is accelerating FAR faster than any of the early reports stated.
The tundra is melting and exuding vast quantities of methane far faster than the scientists first thought.
Methane is a carbon gas that will hold in much more infrared than just the carbon we produce now. And it can NOT be stopped. The man generated greenhouse is now almost unstoppable without extreme measures by us NOW.

It will not happen.

It really is time to bend over and kiss your ass goodbye

(I am over 70 so may live out my life without too much distress) The rest of you maybe not so much.

I’m thinking dementia is setting in early for you..

Did you know there was once a mile high glacier right over Toronto. It formed the niagra escarpment.

Its been reciding long before man invetent fire.

Amazing how it’s so easy for the machine to mind fk peoples brains.

Get em young. Thats how it’s done.. all day kindarden is all I’m saying..

#140 Sheane Wallace on 11.10.15 at 12:22 am

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-09/obamas-trade-deal-will-bankrupt-canadas-farming-industry-overnight-expert-says

Harper’s legacy, I am sure he eats organic.

#141 tundra pete on 11.10.15 at 12:22 am

#112 big dipper.

Must be a typo. Your name should be ” big dickhead”!!

#142 bdy sktrn on 11.10.15 at 12:35 am

My better half beat that today – stacked some at a local clothing store and walked out with $ 100 worth of misc clothing for -$1.10
—————————-
now that is smart shopping! good for her.

my better half will get an offer tomorrow for a 170k+ job that she interviewed for last week, wearing a dress she got in the usa for 7 bucks. :)

#143 Smoking Man on 11.10.15 at 12:40 am

Dedicated to tree hugger world over.

https://youtu.be/lt-udg9zQSE

“Welcome To The Machine”

Welcome my son, welcome to the machine.
Where have you been? It’s alright we know where you’ve been.

You’ve been in the pipeline, filling in time,
provided with toys and Scouting for Boys.

You bought a guitar to punish your ma,
And you didn’t like school, and you know you’re nobody’s fool,
So welcome to the machine.

Welcome my son, welcome to the machine.
What did you dream? It’s alright we told you what to dream.

You dreamed of a big star, he played a mean guitar,
He always ate in the Steak Bar. He loved to drive in his Jaguar.

So welcome to the machine.

#144 MF on 11.10.15 at 12:50 am

#134 pwn3d on 11.09.15 at 11:59 pm

“lol, dude I wouldn’t admit you considered Mark to be a financial wizard, that’s like saying I consider Pauly Shore to be a good actor.

In fact I would take financial advice from Pauly Shore before I would Mark.”

Lol.

That’s hilarious (sorry Mark).

#130 Kenchie

“A Bentley or Porsche a day doesn’t mean anything. Just being some people are rich doesn’t mean most people are rich. And some of the lowest paid people I know drink $5-$7 lattes, so that’s certainly not a barometer of financial well-being.”

-You are on fire tonight.

On the topic of movies, I was making 6.40$/hour in 2000 working as a bus boy in a restaurant. I saved up and bought a nice Honda and then souped it up with euro lights, rims, stereo etc like Vin Diesel in Fast and Furious

I looked “rich” to the other guys (relatively speaking)…but I was still making about a whole 5k/year and living at home while saving zero.

#1 Appearances are often deceiving.
#2 Nice cars are a complete money pit.

MF

#145 bdy sktrn on 11.10.15 at 12:52 am

#108 Nemesis on 11.09.15 at 10:40 pm
“Damn good thing we can survive on exports of “Love it Or List it.” – HonGT
[Relic’s] boat was powered by a re-cycled De Tomaso Pantera’s Ford 351 Cleveland… Personally, I still prefer the Windsor 351.]

——————
and the persephone sp? is still on display right next to mollys reach

thats some old time film right there – at the end you can see that the gibson’s marina has not been built yet.

my cottage is in the background of some of the water action shots. you gotta love howe sound in the summer

#146 young & foolish on 11.10.15 at 1:16 am

The cash flow thingy ….. Forget capital gains or losses for a moment, and just consider dividends. One million in equity averaging 4% yields 40k annually.

Well, that’s something …. If you have a million.

#147 Lee on 11.10.15 at 1:22 am

Where and when has tax and spend worked for a government?

#148 bdy sktrn on 11.10.15 at 1:25 am

It really is time to bend over and kiss your ass goodbye

(I am over 70 so may live out my life without too much distress) The rest of you maybe not so much
————————-
we will be fine once your chicken little ass is gone.

just today alone i have heard a 2deg temp rise described as
1. ‘destruction of the planet’ – cbc radio
2. ‘irreversible damage and permanent loss of human habitat’ – some idiot on tV
and
3. some old fart duster saying its time to “kiss your ass goodbye’

when in reality in canada it will mean

4. Slightly shorter brutally, bitterly frigid winters and far fewer people dying of exposure. Longer growing season, higher food production, lower heating costs, among many other benefits.

oh , and somehow planet has ‘survived’ real climate change – ie 20+deg changes without batting an eye.

#149 young & foolish on 11.10.15 at 1:41 am

What is it about RE that makes it so special to people … And they are willing to pay big for it? Well, they get to live in it.

#150 young & foolish on 11.10.15 at 1:42 am

Every country has a 416 and a 604. And every country now has widening income inequality.

#151 bdy sktrn on 11.10.15 at 1:43 am

#130 Kenchie on 11.09.15 at 11:40 pm

The reality in the 604 is that almost half the city of Van now requires a basement suite income to pay the mortgage. That’s not a good description of rich people.
———————–
idiot of the day comment.

gigantic idiot comment

supreme idiot comment.

we are typical of our friends/neighbours in east van, better off than many, but not all.

we have an awesome basement tennant – we have no mtge – home value approcahing 1.5m – tennnat pays all taxes/util/mtce/ins leaving enough left over to amass a ***huge*** balanced portfolio. all this for putting an 15second ad on craigslist.
when we left the apt empty for a few years it felt like such a waste – so we got tenants that don’t complain, make no noise, usually aren’t around, and do shit for me when i’m at the cottage (very often)

btw – since you seem to never have been here 55% of the pop are renters, leaving 45% owners
well over half have no mtge. leaving about 20% with a mtge

75% of those bought a few years or more ago so are sitting on massive equity gains

so we are down to 5% who may, if they lose a job, may NEED to rent the suite.

———
funny tonite i ran into my neighbour on the drive – 2 kids , 2 public servant jobs – about 5 years in the hood, not the best with money. wife QUIT a govt job!!! income is now too low to keep up with the mtge so they are thinking of selling – mtge is 400k quick sale price is 1.4M – yeah he’s really poor

#152 young & foolish on 11.10.15 at 1:45 am

Never bet against America …. Um, Corporate America that is.

#153 jwhisper on 11.10.15 at 1:57 am

“So, what we have are emergency rates. They’ll stay in place as long as an emergency looms. When the economy sputters back, inflation increases, borrowing demands push bond yields higher or people starving on their GICs mobilize, rates will return to market levels. As I’ve said, I expect that to take mortgages back to the 7% or 8% range by 2014-5 – just in time for renewals.” – Garth in November 2009

I appreciate the transparency in leaving your old posts up for retrospective critique, but those of us who have paid rent for 6 years instead of getting into the market have a right to be a little bitter.

I wonder if you’ll ever be right.

#154 Mark on 11.10.15 at 2:02 am

“That’s it, I will never consider Mark to be a financial wizard again…..”

Good. I never wanted anyone to think I’m some sort of ‘financial wizard’. I just present argument, occasionally facts, and back them up with figures and examples when necessary. Always verify anything and everything I say in due course with your own independent sources.

But the fact remains, a 1% increase on a $600k obligation is going to increase the cost of servicing that obligation by $6000/year, or $500/month.

Whether that increase in debt service cost is derived from a reduction in the rate of equity accrual, or it derived from an increased payment is immaterial to the fact that the family’s accumulation of wealth, at the margin, with no other factors considered, will be reduced at the rate of $500/month on account of such increase.

If equity is particularly weak and weakens further, the borrower becomes increasingly vulnerable to an escalation of their rate on account of credit-worthiness concerns at the time of their eventual renewal, independent of changes to either bond market or policy rates.

#155 OXI in GREECE !! on 11.10.15 at 2:15 am

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/11/09/ontario-steelmaker-essar-steel-algoma-files-for-bankruptcy-as-commodity-prices-bite_n_8513744.html

time to get a govt job with all those taxes going to govt…….oh wait…..

#156 No Debt on 11.10.15 at 2:34 am

I just heard a realtor tell us that we’re all a bunch of geniuses that can see the crap before it hits the fan, implying there’s never a bad time to pay him (John Pasalis) to get out of bed in the morning.

So I have to ask, since I have no clue. What would it cost to buy into an “average” SFH, as the average 10% down buyer, pay all legal fees, and taxes, and then turn around and flip the property in a couple years time because you really are a genius?

#157 Tony on 11.10.15 at 2:54 am

Re: #30 zee on 11.09.15 at 7:59 pm

The opposite will happen credit and liquidity will dry up at the banks who fund the mortgages.

#158 You forgot a fact... on 11.10.15 at 3:07 am

#6 omg the original

Great advice and I agree with your ideas – they are rational; however, here is what you forgot:

1. When a mortgage exceeds the market value, some will “cut and run” in other words, sell at any price (why continue paying for an asset that has a value less than the loan?). This happened in early 80s Western Canada and early 90s Toronto.

Question will be how bad will it get (i.e., how many will “cut and run”)?

If Canadians behave like Americans did in 2007 to 2009, well, quite a few and enough to burst any RE bubble. CMHC or not, underwater is still underwater.

2. One other thing you forgot is human nature and EGO. Will mortgage holders in trouble forgo their lifestyle?

I do not know but others here think not (e.g., #70 Victoria Real Estate Update, Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives and the numerous examples Garth has given above about Canadian debt)…we shall see soon enough.

Only thing keeping it all afloat thus far are jobs growth. If that stalls or becomes negative, then the bubbles will collapse no matter how frugal you are…history and prior RE burst bubbles shows this to be true.

#159 ch on 11.10.15 at 3:09 am

Nice!! Only 5 years until affordable houses everyone!! That’s a 15 year wait for me. How lucky!!!

#160 Spectacle on 11.10.15 at 3:15 am

common sense on 11.09.15 at 9:30 pm
Anyone Blogdogs travel to Cuba? Off topic but…

With Venezuela close to defaulting and being Cuba’s biggest supporters since the Russian’s left years ago, thus far less $$ going to Cuba combined with the Cuban convertible Peso (pegged on the USD at $1.34 cdn = 1 CUC), there is going to be a LOT of desperate Cubans and staff at the various resorts this winter getting less support from the gov’t and far less tips going in their pockets from Cdn tourists..

Plan accordingly…

————————— My Reply ——————-
Not sure what ” plan accordingly ” means ? Your comment actually is on topic and relevant, as much as most on here !

Cuban economics is challenging to discuss in any real sense . I’m not a money markets guy, but the changes in Cuban CUC peso etc to US vs Canadian dollar are rather unimportant until the canadian dollar gets to .10 cents US. ( if ever). Cuban prices on the street are soooo low, except when you go into a public tourist Venue or hotel etc.

They are happy to see a dollar exchange of Cad or US! The average wage is about $20 Canadian, per month! In Cuba.
People travelling to Cuba tend to buy all inclusive packages in can/US dollars. Cuba is one of the last countries in the world who’s Bank is not controlled ! Castro owns his own Bank in London England ( why?).

Travel to Cuba , enjoy the experience, tip well, and make friends. Take a few old cell phones and give them as gifts to your new friends. Get good cigars, if only one, and enjoy the (dark) Rum. Libre Cuba, not Cuba Libre, & with lime.

#161 Freedom First on 11.10.15 at 3:55 am

#74 Ontario’s Left Coast

Point Taken. I will try to be more clear on the meaning of my message. Sometimes I forget who I am talking to on this Blog.

By having cash on hand I was alluding to Warren Buffett’s philosophy of buying things on sale. When a house I like is dirt cheap after a RE crash, I can just buy it, if it is cheaper than renting. Or when someone is forced to sell their low mileage Porsche, and I want it, I can help take it off their hands, as many people are strapped for cash at the same time when TSHTF. I could give you a multitude of other examples, but I am sure even you should get the drift. No charge.

#162 Freedom First on 11.10.15 at 4:10 am

#127 Victoria Real Estate Update

You go girl! Well done. For you, correcting the Dickheads on this Blog is just like shooting ducks in a barrel.

#163 jane 24 on 11.10.15 at 4:22 am

As I said this was an election to lose and the loser was Kid Trudeau.

The groundwork of the financial pullback in Canada was set in stone by Harper but the mud will stick to Trudeau.

Interesting times as the old Chinese curse says definitely in the pipe.

#164 bdy sktrn on 11.10.15 at 4:49 am

i persist…

#130 Kenchie on 11.09.15 at 11:40 pm

The reality in the 604 is that almost half the city of Van now requires a basement suite income to pay the mortgage. That’s not a good description of rich people.
———-
here we go again…

there is so much money flying around 604 it absolutely makes ones head spin. go downtown and look around. nothing but high end everything.
no one bentley but 20+ supercars on one pass across town, it’s like a godammed italian thoroughbred museum on the road. benz and bmw are shameful.

precisely anybody who still has a ‘ground level’ (the PC term) suite are the ones with the largest gains. condos don’t have suites. the market value of one typical east van house/w big lot jumped 300k in under 4 months to this fall . yeah that owner needed to rent the basement (which may or may not have once have housed horticultural pursuits) in fact , he didn’t need to rent the upstairs either, or move in, as it sat empty through the process.

my RE buddy is has a managing broker lic, but not much business (a great guy but dirt poor) , he just found these newer canadians who want to get a RE business here and need someone like him quickly. Fine dining to us is Wendys, these guys took him for lunch, it was $1600 for 6 of them. lunch.

offshore cash continues have a thing for little old van.

#165 bdy sktrn on 11.10.15 at 5:09 am

#133 Doug in London on 11.09.15 at 11:53 pm
@Johnny d, post #83:
Why would you EVER want to bail now? Can’t you see REITs are on sale? NOW is the time to BUY! If you missed the Black Friday blowoff sales on REITs 2 years ago, now you are getting a second chance! I never again thought I would see CAR.UN below $26.00. Amazing, it’s the next best thing to backwards time travel!

—————————
you sure love it when your shit goes down!

reits are back where they were, just like holding cash if you timed the bottom perfectly

can’t deny this is a blowout sale price though and that is the right time to do ones shopping

#166 bdy sktrn on 11.10.15 at 5:20 am

correction :plus divs.

#167 bdy sktrn on 11.10.15 at 5:26 am

and i’m going for a record here, just one more since this is a dog blog….

further to my spca rejection and love of dogs as i posted yesterday, i thought to myself what would smokey do?

so therefore…a friend is adopting the dog first thing in the morning, she’ll be here by 10am. (he knows the trick question)
giterdone or go home.

#168 Art Carnet on 11.10.15 at 6:16 am

Canada’s housing market faces a looming demographic bubble
Who will be able to afford the pricey homes currently owned by disappearing boomers?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-s-housing-market-faces-a-looming-demographic-bubble-1.3310637

Garth has been way ahead of warning of all these now daily reports of housing problems on this blog. Seems to be snowballing now.

#169 BobC on 11.10.15 at 7:36 am

This is scary if true.

http://sputniknews.com/business/20151109/1029833953/canada-tpp-job-losses-farming-risk.html

You read Sputnik News? — Garth

#170 Great Canadian Bubble Co. on 11.10.15 at 8:16 am

Bubble deniers often use the clock example to try and minimize the validity of the evidence being put forward. The reality is that housing markets are not the same as other more frequently traded markets and generally move at a much slower rate. Not to mention, a great deal of effort and disinformation has gone in to literally preventing this thing from toppling over. Now that the dam is finally beginning to burst, MSM has taken up the story. Garth has been right all along. He is no broken clock.

#171 The real Kip on 11.10.15 at 8:52 am

Kenchie on 11.09.15 at 10:18 pm

“LOL! 0.50%, or a 25 basis point increase is “the stratosphere”!! holy hyperbole Batman! Guess this person hasn’t seen historical interest rates before!”

Kenchie, I never said rates were going into the stratosphere. I said Ms. Yellen has certainly talked it into the stratosphere. They either move now in December or lose face much like this blog.

Sorry you failed reading comprehension.

#172 David on 11.10.15 at 9:00 am

We can’t all be cheerleader, kid. Besides, tax-and-spend almost never works. — Garth

Except of course we’re still at the zero lower bound and suffering from a lack of aggregate demand, so yeah I’ll take the government stimulus.

Sure, more government, more overhead, more deficits and more debt. Great idea. Very progressive. — Garth

#173 BillyBob on 11.10.15 at 9:23 am

“funny tonite i ran into my neighbour on the drive – 2 kids , 2 public servant jobs – about 5 years in the hood, not the best with money. wife QUIT a govt job!!! income is now too low to keep up with the mtge so they are thinking of selling – mtge is 400k quick sale price is 1.4M – yeah he’s really poor”

====================================

“Thinking of selling” means they have made exactly zero dollars yet. And if they buy again in Vancouver they’ll have to pay even more.

Yep, they’re rich. As long as they’re moving to Saskatoon.

Bragging about house equity is weak, like a gambler with paper wins. So is trying to justify having strangers living in your basement. Only in Canada is this considered “normal”. Whomever coined the cutesy term “mortgage helper” should be shot.

#174 Ret on 11.10.15 at 9:35 am

Algoma Steel back into bankruptcy protection. This doesn’t look good.

Unpaid municipal taxes, huge debt, underfunded pension, large contaminated plant site – all too similar to the Stelco/US Steel mess in Hamilton.

Perhaps Kathleen and some of her entourage of 85 can discuss with the Chinese how detrimental their dumping of steel has been to Canadian producers. I’m sure that the Chinese will change their ways.

I look forward to the Sault Ste. Marie cabinet minister’s report in the local press on the success of the latest Liberal trade mission to China.

http://www.sootoday.com/content/news/details.asp?c=100629

#175 The American on 11.10.15 at 9:46 am

At #108: Rock Beats Paper, ummmmmm, I’m calling a bullshit on you. There are not 94MM people employed in the U.S. In fact, there are 122.5MM people employed FULL TIME in the U.S. Obviously, this doesn’t include part-time workers (often dual income households, students, etc.). Add to that the 32MM part-time workers (about 5.4MM due to “economic restraints”) and you have one HELL of a chugging economy. God damn canadians just don’t get it, and they don’t want to get it. Face it, the canadian economy sucks ass in nearly every imaginable metric. Sure the U.S. has its problems, and it always will, but the U.S. is BY FAR more dynamic than canada ever will be. The real jobs, the jobs that matter, are in the States and always have been (as opposed to half the population of canada be some form of mindless zombie government employee). Again, everyone seems to get this concept, expect for a canadian.

#176 ANON on 11.10.15 at 9:47 am

@#167 Art Carnet on 11.10.15 at 6:16 am

In all honesty, Ben Rabidoux was doing the same thing on his now defunct blogs (some web caches still exist, but not much else). Pretty doomy if you ask me, especially the videos (looong time removed). A tad doomier than TAE, IMHO, or maybe just a more in-yo-face style, instead of the gentle Foss style of spelling the doom calmly.
So yeah, the snowball is rolling downhill, the permabears are coming out of the basements and closets again.

#177 IHCTD9 on 11.10.15 at 9:53 am

#18 bdy sktrn on 11.09.15 at 7:31 pm
Honda CBR 900 RR Fireblade

A Fireblade can do 0-60 mph in 2.9 seconds
____________________________________________

Go Army Top Fuel Dragster:

0-60 mph: 0.2 seconds
0-100 mph: 0.8 seconds
1/4 mile ET and MPH: 4.5 seconds at 337 mph

Go Army TF rail does not use 3.7 L V6

#178 IHCTD9 on 11.10.15 at 10:26 am

#27 rk usa on 11.09.15 at 7:47 pm
re: #9 TurnerNation on 11.09.15 at 7:15 pm

Kanadians…the only people stupid enough to pay almost $15 for a pint of beer in a chain restaurant. $9 + tax + tip. Could buy a 6 pack for that, down south.

OurWayOfLife.

I know I was up there a year or two ago and was out with friends the three of us had three pints a piece at some bs chain crap of a joint Kelsey’s or Milestones
and the bill was well over a $100, and the exchange was pretty much at par

crazy

not even peanuts on the counter

Canada the land of $15 pints and million dollar houses

how do you compete with that
___________________________________________

There is a lesson there – don’t let the government monopolize the alcoholic beverage industry. Wynne just changed the law in Ontario to avoid legal consequences for “The Beer Store” (foreign owned) and the LCBO as they illegally conspired with one another to raise the cost of alcohol, and earned themselves a lawsuit. Was just in the news yesterday. IIRC, Kelseys etc.. pay more for alcohol than a walk in retail customer does…

#179 young & foolish on 11.10.15 at 10:39 am

“I appreciate the transparency in leaving your old posts up for retrospective critique, but those of us who have paid rent for 6 years instead of getting into the market have a right to be a little bitter.”

Wow buddy … you expect a lot from a free blog!

#180 IHCTD9 on 11.10.15 at 10:40 am

Harper?
.#33 10% of the Time on 11.09.15 at 8:05 pm
Plus there are 1 million refugees on the UN list that we have to help. Majority of these people are destined for Canada.

Air Canada will announce in Friday that 2 jumbo jets will fly one flight daily under contract with the Federal Government. 25,000 by Xmas. And 10,000 per month afterwards from what I’m hearing.

Housing in Vancouver and Toronto will be fine. It’s the rents that renters should worry about.
____________________________________________

Out my way, a new Syrian family was just settled into a house donated to them by a local – 13 people in the family. They were sponsored by a group of locals to settle here. If the number of people involved with looking after and setting up this particular family represents what it will take for each and every Syrian family we bring in – I estimate looking after 25,000 refugees will require approximately 75,000 workers and 2500 houses donated.

#181 Sean on 11.10.15 at 10:44 am

Garth… I’m surprised at you. You keep harping that it was a bad idea to have the Liberals in power but it was the exact policies of Harper that got us into this mess. It’s the same fear tactics they use… “oh we got you in this mess but believe us, the mess would be bigger if they were in charge.”
10 years of bad policy got us here. Let’s give the Liberals a chance to see where we end up over the next 4+ years. The mess we have is conservative, and its time to fix those mistakes. Cutting programs while cutting taxes, ruling by fear, investing everything into oil didn’t work. Anything we experience this coming year is Harper’s mess.

Nowhere did I suggest the election outcome was a bad idea. What concerns me, however, is the uncritical cheerleading now taking place for a PM who will run deficits as a normal course of events, swell the national debt, put more upward pressure on credit markets, make saving more difficult and tax success. Yes, we will have a long form census, allow more refugees, celebrate gender parity, fund a missing aboriginal women inquiry and launch a climate change frenzy – all as promised. But let’s not lose our perspective about wha’s best for the country and its citizens. — Garth

#182 WallOfWorry on 11.10.15 at 10:55 am

While most here are fixated on the Canadian real estate market, and since this is a financial blog, it amazes me that more people aren’t questioning the Black Swan in front of them. Why would anyone believe that the US is experiencing robust growth that there debt level is a non-issue? The fact remains that the US GDP rate is not at levels that would support higher interest rates, particularly with the debt level being $19 T or as some would suggest, much higher.

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/ex-gao-head-us-debt-is-three-times-more-than-you-think/

#183 Ronaldo on 11.10.15 at 10:59 am

# 67 omg the original

“On the other hand, house prices are sticky on the way down. People will do anything, absolutely anything, not to sell at a loss.”

There will be many people sitting on huge paper gains that will sell at less than what the market is willing to pay. It matters not to these people if they are up 100% if the market is down 20%. They are still laughing all the way to the bank with their illusionary gains and will sell if they need to. Those who bought at the top who need to sell will be the losers and who will drive the prices down. In the early 70’s when house prices were rising at 5% per month over an 18 month period, my home had risen 90%. I had to sell shortly after the peak and came out with a 57% gain. Prices dropped even further after that. The biggest losses were in the high end areas like West Van. The drop in prices came instantly by fall of 74. Like a switch being turned off. I suspect we will see something similar happen this time too. Bubbles always pop.

#184 IHCTD9 on 11.10.15 at 11:03 am

#38 Investorz on 11.09.15 at 8:13 pm

I don’t think it’s the interest rates that will hurt the market first. Nope. It’s too obvious and the markets always surprise. It’s the jobs. In Toronto, financials will do more lay offs, and that will hurt.
____________________________________________

Bang on.

The job situation here in Ontario is way worse than any MSM media seems to want to talk about, and it’s been on a steady slide for 10+ years. Wynne is doing squat – not that she could at this point. Now Alberta and probably SK are quickly catching up.

All that can be done at this point is to lower the costs of living in this province – but Wynne (and now Trudough) are working hard to make life even more expensive.

I have worked in manufacturing in Southern Ontario for 20 years, and the change for the worse in that time is massive. I don’t think I’m going to get another 20 years out of this industry unless I am willing to go backwards. I’m not much better off now than I was in 2006.

I’m starting to think it is time to start looking for my own personal trough to feed from…

#185 Minister of Carbon Taxation on 11.10.15 at 11:05 am

Raw sewage dump – A-ok… oil pipelines not a chance. ALBERTA IS FINISHED

“People are extraordinarily happy to see that Canada is seated at the table, and that Canada accepts the scientific evidence that climate change is one of the greatest threats of our time and will be doing our part,” she told reporters in a phone call from Paris.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/environment-minister-vows-more-stringent-reviews-for-pipelines/article27184263/

#186 The Other Chris on 11.10.15 at 11:22 am

@180 IHCTD9

Is that ever true. Private sector hiring in Ontario is extremely weak. It’s surprising how few job postings there are for an economy of 13.6 million people. (If you subtract out tech postings, the job boards are almost like a ghost town.)

#187 NoName on 11.10.15 at 11:27 am

@MF

In late 98 i washed dishes in some noname restaurant i was getting 10. how did you manged to get 6.40 as as a bus boy in a restaurant min wage was 6.85.
If you were not serving customers in restaurant, you were being shortchanged 45c an hour. so go back and ask for your money with interest.

and that red seal thing from yesterday

i am tradesman my self, i worked with many tradesman )coumpulsory trade or just so call trade) and i am yet to see good tradesman with bad back and knees due to work load. It takes only extra 5min and few extra tools do thing right way.

red seal – when i took an exam for my CofQ, i clearly remember lady saying this is a last time that you can write exam and score less that 70% and get ontario only certification, from now on 70 not 60, not is a bare minimum. so you get red seal as you pass you CofQ.

Thing to do now days is to have only compulsory trade, because allows you to work “outside”, all other so called trades anyone can do it legally, no lic. or cert. needed. There is only 25 compulsory trades out of ~150 different trades listed on OCofT.
truth is you cant outsource plumer, especially when toilet is plugged, but fact that now everyone is jumping on a trade band wagon is just funny. Trades will be over saturated job market soon. Everyone is screaming trades this and that, but there is no new industry and industry what we alrady have is going, going, gone…

Only growing sector in my opinon fir next 20 yrs is health care. pharma and that other thing youtbe. i keep telling my older one math, science, statistic and quantum physics (string theory and probability) is what you need to make it big. Big data big opportunity, but she doesn’t believe me…

And on a side note robots, other than Mark.

http://www.ifr.org/uploads/RTEmagicC_Table_1_Executive_Summary_01.jpg.jpg
http://www.ifr.org/uploads/RTEmagicC_Table_2_Executive_Summary_01.jpg.jpg

http://www.businessinsider.com/countries-where-robots-are-taking-over-2012-12

#robot-l9sg
https://youtu.be/QbNhZJxxyAc

#188 IHCTD9 on 11.10.15 at 11:28 am

#49 Rexx Rock on 11.09.15 at 8:44 pm
There is no need to worry about rates going up in Canada.Poloz the clown wants to devalue the dollar even more so if the US raises rates the BOC will be ecstatic.They know Canadians can handle a 64 cent dollar like we’ve done in the past,no problem.If it drops below 60 cents than we have to worry.
____________________________________________

Over 60% of our GDP is consumer spending.

When the cost of groceries and everything else climbs in sync with the falling Loonie, folks will start cutting back on spending.

Add in job losses, potential increases in Mortgage rates and you have a scenario where wallets get sealed up tight. We would probably suffer more from widespread lack of consumer spending than the tanking commodities we are dealing with right now.

#189 S.Bby on 11.10.15 at 11:29 am

#131 Bdy Skytrn
one kid who could have had the perfect life got the shaft.

Really. Perfect life with you?

#190 Moller on 11.10.15 at 11:30 am

There won’t be a crash, just a correction. It’s all about beautiful deleveraging.

See How the Economic Machine Works
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0

#191 Daisy Mae on 11.10.15 at 11:38 am

#58: “Besides, tax-and-spend almost never works. — Garth”

*****************

I understand the wealthy 1% is upset with the ‘tax’….but don’t we have to ‘spend’ on infrastructure to encourage employment? We need jobs.

Then lower taxes and unleash more capital. Government is not the preferred creator of jobs. — Garth

#192 JimH on 11.10.15 at 11:44 am

#9 TurnerNation on 11.09.15 at 7:15 pm
“Kanadians…the only people stupid enough to pay almost $15 for a pint of beer in a chain restaurant. $9 + tax + tip. Could buy a 6 pack for that, down south…”
================================
Don’t mean to rub it in, TN; but $15 bucks (CAD) or $11.25 (USD) will get you an even dozen Samuel Adams Boston Lagers at my local Super.
Cheers?

#193 Bottoms_Up on 11.10.15 at 11:49 am

#175 The American on 11.10.15 at 9:46 am
——————
Not true, lots of Canadians get it, we just also realize it’s a moot conversation to have.

#194 Dup on 11.10.15 at 11:51 am

Sorry Garth, not with you on this…
I do not see a rate rise for BOC based on current conditions. I think they will keep it steady. We are not strong enough to raise anything. This time is that 10% of the time when Canada does not follow US. Remember the new government will be going further in debt to pay for its budget plan in action. They will borrow money too to do that. The rates could even become lower here…

I did not say the BoC will increase. In the short term it will not. But that will have no impact on rising bond yields and pricier mortgages. — Garth

#195 Investorz on 11.10.15 at 11:51 am

TD shaking up the top positions. Banks are the heartbeat of our economy. Do you smell trouble? On BNN today:

“TD Bank has announced several changes to its senior executive team, including a new CEO, CFO, head of Canadian personal banking, head of direct channels, technology, marketing and real estate.”

http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=746620

#196 Broke Dick on 11.10.15 at 12:00 pm

#167 bdy sktrn on 11.10.15 at 5:26 am
and i’m going for a record here, just one more since this is a dog blog….

further to my spca rejection and love of dogs as i posted yesterday, i thought to myself what would smokey do?

so therefore…a friend is adopting the dog first thing in the morning, she’ll be here by 10am. (he knows the trick question)
giterdone or go home.
———————————————————

Since you have the time check into BARF or RAW diet for your new roomy.

#197 IHCTD9 on 11.10.15 at 12:00 pm

#72 Daisy Mae on 11.09.15 at 9:24 pm
“…Everybody looks at little Canada with its slagging economy, commodity fetish, hot PM and endless house lust, and says the same thing.”

********************

The ‘slagging economy, commodity fetish…and endless house lust’ is NOT Trudeau’s fault. But he’s inherited Harpers’ legacy. Shall we place the blame where it belongs?
____________________________________________

So let me guess…

Harper told the Saudi King not to cut production?

Harper dictates to the BoC what the benchmark will be?

You are a without out a blush, the most partisan hack on this blog.

Here’s a hint for you. The situation with our economy will not change due to JT – he has to deal with the same international forces as Harper did, Obama does, and Putin does etc…

But, thanks to folks like you, I don’t have to be honest at all, and can come back here in a year or so and blame the whole [still the same] mess on Trudeau…

#198 Doug in London on 11.10.15 at 12:07 pm

@bdy sktrn, post #165:
Yes, I do love it when my shit goes down because I can scoop up more of it dirt cheap. During these blowoff sales, I’m excited and eager to log into my trading account and see what steals I can scoop up today. I must be reading the calendar wrong, I thought Black Friday was still 3 weeks away from now.

#199 Mark on 11.10.15 at 12:09 pm

“TD shaking up the top positions. Banks are the heartbeat of our economy. Do you smell trouble? “

There’s definitely a different “tone” at play at the Canadian banks, and it is shifting from “you’re richer than you think” to “you’re dirt poor and we want our money back”. No longer will the banks be the “nice guy” trying to earn the loyalty of the lowest quality borrowers in the marketplace.

Since the Canadian housing market is clearly over 2 years past the peak, it makes no sense for the banks to have management teams with the skillset of expanding mortgage credit. What the banks do need at this time is savviness in dealing with the politicians who run the CMHC.

Remember the new government will be going further in debt to pay for its budget plan in action.

The Liberals campaigned on a platform that was actually more fiscally austere than the Harper Government ™ achieved in practice (Harper ran an average deficit of ~$25B/year in his decade in office!). So in theory, the Liberals were actually telegraphing overall budget cutbacks.

Whether they keep their promise of “only” $10B deficits, at a time when tax revenues from the O&G and RE sectors are likely to be decelerating significantly, and CMHC subprime mortgage insurance claims start piling up remains to be seen. I am quite skeptical Justin will be able to keep his promises, and the honeymoon will wear off sooner or later.

#200 Daisy Mae on 11.10.15 at 12:15 pm

#94: “Ah, the joys?? of home ownership…. when I could maybe have called a landlord. Who knows? And why keep a car 12 years when there is no need?”

*****************

Miscellaneous costs — generally puttering around the house — keeps you busy and active. We can’t be travelling to faraway places all the time. Beats being cooped up in an apartment twiddling yer thumbs!

#201 too old for bs on 11.10.15 at 12:15 pm

“The need for tax-and-spend is direct result of the collapse of the non-diversified resource selling economy.”

Are people so young and stupid that they forget that it was a Liberal government that gutted Canadian manufacturing in order to comply with the UN edict to pay for ‘sustainable development’ projects …in places like ….CHINA.

We were supposed to ship our manufacturing to the third world to grow living standards there…and become a ‘knowledge economy’ …..aren’t we hearing the same tire BS from Notley, Wynne and now Trudy and the Turds?

BTW…how did that UN mandated ‘sustainable development thingy’ work our for us?

#202 Rising rates 2016 on 11.10.15 at 12:27 pm

#11 WhyWorry
I do conquer with the US not raising rate till early summer 2016.
Watch and learn Garth!

From your spelling? — Garth

#203 IHCTD9 on 11.10.15 at 12:27 pm

#89 Slim on 11.09.15 at 9:57 pm
#29 Newspapers aren’t the place to find truth

*********************************************************

“We’re going to need an estimated 1.05 million new nurses by 2022. According to the American Association of Colleges of Nursing, the shortage is due to a shortage of nursing faculty, restricted enrollment numbers, and an aging workforce:

According to a 2013 survey conducted by the National Council of State Boards of Nursing and The Forum of State Nursing Workforce Centers, 55% of the RN workforce is age 50 or older.

The Health Resources and Services Administration projects that more than 1 million registered nurses will reach retirement age within the next 10 to 15 years.

With 2022 and 2025 on the horizon, we need to get some of our youth on the path to medical and nursing school—STAT!”

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2015/3/4/1368529/-The-U-S-is-facing-a-massive-shortage-of-doctors-in-the-next-10-years
____________________________________________

There will be plenty of fully experienced ones to go down south. I don’t know about the rest of Canada, but here in Ontario RN’s are being cut left right and center. They will probably be re hiring cheaper RNA type grads to fill these positions when the time comes.

Oh, by the way, here is a recent announcement from the ONA:

The Ontario Nurses’ Association warns hospital patients are at increased risk of dying because of cuts to registered nursing positions across the province…”

WTF?

#204 fancy_pants on 11.10.15 at 12:29 pm

Looking to fill your cup of cheer? look elsewhere.

Economically, the curtain is slowly being drawn. All the years of overspending is slowly catching up. It was a good run, almost half a century here in the west since deficits and debts became the norm.

Economies now run on consumption and spending. Productivity is simply an inconvenient means to such – the cart. The environment of taxes and red tape is evidence. And QE and ZIRP is the new medicine when the horse called consumption slows down.

global economic and social disorder will begin to show more and more cracks. Eventually it will all go caput. not looking forward to that day. All this is simply the other end of deja vu… hearing tomorrow’s history today.

#205 Rainclouds on 11.10.15 at 12:43 pm

Uh Oh, San Fran RE teetering? In a city where there is actual private sector employment with high remuneration……………… Van and TO are “special”

http://www.businessinsider.com/san-franciscos-luxury-home-market-2015-11

#206 james on 11.10.15 at 12:52 pm

“Then lower taxes and unleash more capital. Government is not the preferred creator of jobs. — Garth”

Oh my, Garth, surely you are better than such paleo-conservative nonsense, at least that’s how I read this comment by you.

“Even figures compiled by the federal Finance Department indicate that corporate tax cuts are not an effective way to create jobs. As part of the 2010 budget, Finance prepared a study comparing tax cuts with other stimulus measures, including infrastructure investments and Employment Insurance premiums.

Corporate tax cuts ranked at the bottom of the list, producing just 20 cents of domestic economic growth for every $1 in cuts for 2010. Infrastructure investments, by comparison, generated $1.50 in economic activity for every $1 invested.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/time-to-lead/cut-taxes-create-jobs-not-quite/article597527/

There are hundreds of other fact-based analyses and reports like this one, Garth, but I won’t burden your blog with all the links.

It is likely true that lower taxes over a very long term may help companies create more employment. But this has to be measured against the continuing outflow of jobs overseas in the never-ending race to the bottom of who will offer the lowest taxes and the lowest wages. None of which is good for any of us, in the very long term.

The Liberal plan for infrastructure spending looks to be our best bet going forward. If it doesn’t work, we may indeed be screwed, but that’s where Harpernomics has us headed anyway, so better to try something more constructive in the meantime.

#207 conan on 11.10.15 at 12:53 pm

#187 NoName on 11.10.15 at 11:27 am

Fear robots. The only way we will make it is to elevate humanity. Take it to the next level so to speak.

#208 Snowboid on 11.10.15 at 1:18 pm

#136 Frank on 11.10.15 at 12:03 am…

The only posters to this blog that regularly use the broken clock saying are RE agents – must be in one of the RE 101 manuals written before the invention of digital clocks!

As one poster noted in past (referring to the digital version) “A broken clock is, well, a broken clock!”

BTW, according to our knowledge of the Victoria (and Calgary) VREUs’ posts are pretty accurate.

#209 MF on 11.10.15 at 1:28 pm

#187 NoName on 11.10.15 at 11:27 am

Imagine the interest accrued after 15 years? I might be able to put a 5% down payment on a condo with that money lol.

Thanks for the insight concerning the trades.

I have to say I am a little discouraged that you think the trades market will be over saturated in the future. I have this weird thought every once in a while that I can always retrain as an electrician (my buddy is an electrician). Even at age 32.

I would do the compulsory trade program for sure if I ended up going that route.

It’s funny you mentioned health care because that is where I work currently. It’s also what I went to university for.

I guess the grass is always greener on the other side!

MF

#210 SWL1976 on 11.10.15 at 1:30 pm

#60 Gulf Breeze Sounds to me like you have your finger on the pulse of what is really going on.

Do you mind disclosing what sort of business you are in?

I find your posts quite informative.

#211 MF on 11.10.15 at 1:34 pm

#191 Daisy Mae on 11.10.15 at 11:38 am

Lol it’s the wealthy 1% that provides jobs for everyone else.

You remind me of some of the people at my workplace. Complaining on and on about the “evil” 1% who signs their paychecks and allows them to put food on the table.

This country is so dumb (and actually getting dumber).

MF

#212 SWL1976 on 11.10.15 at 1:46 pm

On the drive to work this morning with some coworkers I had to edure a painful coversation and alomst didn’t say anything, but decided I had better throw something out there for them to think about. I forget what I said, but I know I got some gears turning.

The conversation was regarding the news on the National last night about the Russians cheating and being banned from whatever games they are banned from. Anyways the programming is thick and it doesn’t take much to convince the herd to revert back to their programming of Russia bad America Good.

The propaganda is disgusting

Western credibilty is running on fumes

#126 Smoking Man – We might not agree on climate change SM, but you hit the nail on the head with this post

#213 IHCTD9 on 11.10.15 at 1:51 pm

#113 Big Dipper on 11.09.15 at 10:48 pm

-“Canada’s shiny new, gender-perfect T2 cabinet”

Nice misogynist sneering attack on the current cabinet composition
____________________________________________

misogynist, misogynist, misogynist, misogynist, misogynist, misogynist

Haven’t all the leftwingnutzfemminazis gotten tired of that word yet?

-“Canada’s shiny new, gender-perfect T2 cabinet”

Oh – what a vicious, flailing attack that was! Massive, earthquake inducing, universe shattering attack, and with a sneer.

Good grief – I hope JT imports millions upon millions of Syrian women into Canada ASAP so we can start breeding big dickhead’s kind of out of existence.

Third world women FTW!

#214 Big Dipper on 11.10.15 at 1:59 pm

“Then lower taxes and unleash more capital. Government is not the preferred creator of jobs. — Garth”

Ideological fantasy. Capital does not get “unleashed”. It sits safely off-shore or in share buy-back programs.

Keynesian economics work. When the private sector retreats, government must provide stimulus. The Chicago school of economics (Friedman) and their Calgary equivalent have been proven wrong. Harper provided the proof (again).

#215 dontcallmeshirley on 11.10.15 at 2:06 pm

“…a PM who will run deficits as a normal course of events, swell the national debt, put more upward pressure on credit markets, make saving more difficult and TAX SUCCESS”

You mean tax LUCK?

Should termination payments received by CEOs be subject to higher tax? I say yes.

#216 young & foolish on 11.10.15 at 2:07 pm

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/france-introduces-measures-boost-depressed-173115986.html

RE market troubles, not just for Canada. You’re not as diversified as you think.

#217 kommykim on 11.10.15 at 2:14 pm

RE:

#211 MF on 11.10.15 at 1:34 pm
Complaining on and on about the “evil” 1% who signs their paychecks and allows them to put food on the table.

Actually it is the 99% toiling away at wages lower than their true value that allows the 1% their wealth. The multi billionaire did not earn every dollar he has. He leveraged the intellectual and sweat equity of those working below him to make his billions.

#218 213comm on 11.10.15 at 2:17 pm

Wow ‘bdy sktrn’ do you believe in ANY of the crap you post here?

Oh btw the $0.62/L gas in Blaine the other day, was actually $0.82/L

#219 young & foolish on 11.10.15 at 2:19 pm

“Yes, I do love it when my shit goes down because I can scoop up more of it dirt cheap.”

Don’t worry … there will be plenty of sales going forward … hehe. Good luck with that 7%.

#220 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.10.15 at 2:21 pm

Sputnik News?
Nyet, I’ll stick with Pravda.

#221 IHCTD9 on 11.10.15 at 2:25 pm

#174 Ret on 11.10.15 at 9:35 am
Algoma Steel back into bankruptcy protection. This doesn’t look good.

Unpaid municipal taxes, huge debt, underfunded pension, large contaminated plant site – all too similar to the Stelco/US Steel mess in Hamilton.

Perhaps Kathleen and some of her entourage of 85 can discuss with the Chinese how detrimental their dumping of steel has been to Canadian producers. I’m sure that the Chinese will change their ways.

I look forward to the Sault Ste. Marie cabinet minister’s report in the local press on the success of the latest Liberal trade mission to China.
____________________________________________

I still remember when we had actual Canadian steel producers. Talk to the major warehouses in Southern Ontario, they are all now each an amalgamation of 4-5 once independent steel companies. All of them carry only the bread and butter of the industry, anything else is ex-USA.

This situation with the mills is directly tied to the declining demand in Ontario following the massive and continuing exodus of manufacturing, coupled with the increased costs of doing business here. China is not helping either as you mention.

Get a government job while you can, or make plans for your own exodus.

#222 dontcallmeshirley on 11.10.15 at 2:32 pm

Garth is fond of the idea that 1%’ers are innovating job creators.

Nadir Mohamed got $18.5M (Rogers)

Dominic Pilla fot $25M (Shoppers Drug Mart)

Belinda Stronach got $9M (Magna)

These US guys put the canucks to shame with their exit money: http://www.forbes.com/pictures/ehii45khf/jack-welch-at-general-electric-417-million/

Those are not 1%ers. They are .01%ers. Typical. — Garth

#223 young & foolish on 11.10.15 at 2:38 pm

“Bless all you borrowers out there, I think.
You’ll be getting what you deserve.”

That’s harsh, isn’t it? Without all those spenders, our economy would have slowed considerably some time ago. Look around the world a little … not much better anywhere else.

#224 JSS on 11.10.15 at 2:47 pm

McDonald’s increased their dividend by 5%.

http://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/McDonalds+(MCD)+Says+Its+Not+Pursuing+REIT%3B+to+Raise+Dividend+5%25/11058611.html

39 years of consecutive dividend increases

I’m lovin it.

#225 young & foolish on 11.10.15 at 2:48 pm

“Pity the wealthy. They have so much to lose, here in Canada. But they can always move to the U.S! Why they can even swap houses with the legions who will be clamouring to leave that God forsaken third world, gun blasting, cluster bomb dropping clustercluck of a nation!”

Ah yes, the good life in good old USA … where life is increasingly lived at opposite ends of the extremes. Just like anywhere else in the 3rd world … without money or connections, you are low wage fodder.

#226 Hargood Truth-Teller on 11.10.15 at 2:50 pm

#203….It was already posted that RN’s from the Phils with exactly the same education and 10 years experience are earning $1000 p/m in the international market. Why are we paying them $150,000 here in Canada. Why not do what Canada does on every other level…import rather than waste money on education. Stop listening to the union propaganda that workers must make as much as people with an education….this ‘income parity’ nonsense…is just nonsense. If every one got what they wanted from the leftists then Canadian made T Shirts would cost $99 dollars each and seniors would be eating their pets.

Traders are expecting another thousand point drop day….there is nothing but failure in the markets…no catalyst for investment to drive markets forward…let alone higher…..look out below and have cash…we may be in for another long recession…the Obama-Corps are fudging the figures something crazy.

Bwahahahahahahaha …read this morning that Trudy and the Turds are already back peddling on when the borrowing deficits will balance……right now the word from the Parliamentary Budget off ice is ….never. Ain’t Canadians so smart?

“http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-investors-are-getting-for-the-holidays-volatility-redux-2015-11-10

#227 IHCTD9 on 11.10.15 at 3:00 pm

#181 Sean on 11.10.15 at 10:44 am
Garth… I’m surprised at you. You keep harping that it was a bad idea to have the Liberals in power but it was the exact policies of Harper that got us into this mess. It’s the same fear tactics they use… “oh we got you in this mess but believe us, the mess would be bigger if they were in charge.”
10 years of bad policy got us here. Let’s give the Liberals a chance to see where we end up over the next 4+ years. The mess we have is conservative, and its time to fix those mistakes. Cutting programs while cutting taxes, ruling by fear, investing everything into oil didn’t work. Anything we experience this coming year is Harper’s mess.
___________________________________________

You obviously don’t live in Ontario.

#228 Daisy Mae on 11.10.15 at 3:06 pm

#107: “Great read for anyone who is interested in the boomer generation:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/11/05/baby-boomers-are-whats-wrong-with-americas-economy/

******************

The baby boomers were born just after WW2….and are not responsible for their sheer numbers. Altho’ we’re eager to blame someone — anyone — they’re not a scapegoat.

#229 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.10.15 at 3:06 pm

#143 Smoking Man on 11.10.15 at 12:40 am
Dedicated to tree hugger world over.

https://youtu.be/lt-udg9zQSE

“Welcome To The Machine”
Welcome my son, welcome to the machine.
Where have you been? It’s alright we know where you’ve been.
You’ve been in the pipeline, filling in time,
provided with toys and Scouting for Boys.
You bought a guitar to punish your ma,
And you didn’t like school, and you know you’re nobody’s fool,
So welcome to the machine.
Welcome my son, welcome to the machine.
What did you dream? It’s alright we told you what to dream.
You dreamed of a big star, he played a mean guitar,
He always ate in the Steak Bar. He loved to drive in his Jaguar.
So welcome to the machine.
____________________________________________
Welcome to your machine Smoking Man, this one is a Silver Machine. This machine is not for a tree hugging bastards but more in tune for those who want to travel through time, space and dimensions. BTW Lemmy is still alive and controls the entire universe.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfniG-AdSC4

When you go and get loaded or smoke your stuff go listen to this. Lets see if we can fry your brain.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GAyCZxQUJEY

#230 MF on 11.10.15 at 3:10 pm

#217 kommykim on 11.10.15 at 2:14 pm

You are right.

“Actually it is the 99% toiling away at wages lower than their true value that allows the 1% their wealth. The multi billionaire did not earn every dollar he has. He leveraged the intellectual and sweat equity of those working below him to make his billions.”

But like Garth mentioned a few lines above, a billionaire is a .1%er not a 1%er.

Main point is I disagree with this culture of punishing success we seem to have developed. Someday I would like to be a 1%er, no matter how lofty of a goal that is.

We have a culture now where everyone’s goal in life seems to be to work for the Government. To me that is the opposite of what it should be. We should encourage a healthy private sector.

Once government gets too big taxes have to be raised to pay for it all. Taxes from who? That is the direction I think we are headed and that is why I disagree completely with the kid’s policies (and pretty much everything else he represents).

Anecdote: I work in a private business owned by a 1%er. Last month two things happened. One is the minimum wage in Ontario went up 25 cents. Not a big deal right? Wrong. All the teens raving about their 25 cent “raise” all had their hours cut.

The second is this came at the same time that the cost of materials and taxes is going up in the province. We were forced to raise the price of our product to remain profitable, and as a result, business has gone down (temporarily I hope). My income has gone down as well.

That is a real life example of why I disagree with the hatred of the evil 1% our dumb country has extolled, with some kid masquerading as a statesman at the helm of it all.

MF

#231 AACI Home-Dog on 11.10.15 at 3:16 pm

Off topic, but here is a link to a realtor’s outlook on BRA agreements that may interest some blog dogs.

http://www.remonline.com/take-the-fear-out-of-buyer-agreements/?utm_source=REM+Inbox+Update&utm_campaign=f6f143edd2-10_November_201511_9_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_3f4c7c7b65-f6f143edd2-61540285

#232 SWL1976 on 11.10.15 at 3:30 pm

#209 MF

#187 NoName

Thanks for the insight concerning the trades. I have to say I am a little discouraged that you think the trades market will be over saturated in the future. I have this weird thought every once in a while that I can always retrain as an electrician (my buddy is an electrician). Even at age 32. I would do the compulsory trade program for sure if I ended up going that route.

——————————

I just happened to time the trades perfectly, as when I graduated high school in 94 the trades were higly out of favor and somewhat frowned upon.

I am extremely discouraged with the lack of training that there is for apprentice trades people these days. The hands on training is not what it used to be and they seem to jam people through school with more importance placed on getting qualified then getting experience.

Fortuneately for established skilled people like myself there will always be a demand simply because most people now who are qualified still don’t have the experience needed in most cases. Simply by chance I got in at the right time and learned from many grizzled and true trades people who knew how to do the job right and took the time to teach a younger generation.

Now, I forsee there will be a lack of experienced people, but a surplus of unskilled, yet qualified people, and by the sounds of the TPP things are not going to get better. So, the highly skilled will still be able to command a preimium in consulting fees to fix all the mistakes of everyone else who are duking it out, cutting corners and undercuting each other.

I don’t recommend the trades to most people these days – it’s going to get cut throat for those just starting out

#233 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.10.15 at 3:33 pm

#60 Gulf Breeze on 11.09.15 at 9:07 pm

Gosh, you mean Harper style ‘borrow and spend’ beats tax and spend? How so?

Pity the wealthy. They have so much to lose, here in Canada. But they can always move to the U.S! Why they can even swap houses with the legions who will be clamouring to leave that God forsaken third world, gun blasting, cluster bomb dropping clustercluck of a nation!

Oh, not to mention drought stricken, verging on race war and out of control cops? What did I miss? Oh yes…the middle class is now paying double for health care, seeing as the republicans forced the universality clause out of the original bill?

In the interest of full disclosure — my business is down there and I have a house there. Would I ever in a million years go back there to live? Nope. Are they looking at a derivatives related new banking disaster? Yep. Is the reserve status of their dollar at risk? Yep. Just like oil. Thy are directly related. Read Ambrose Evans Pritchard. Oh and btw, he LOVES America.
____________________________________________
I grew up in America in the early sixty’s and attended collage there, got my degree, motioned the USAF, worked for uncle Sam and some Cal tech companies. While the USA is not what it used to be it is not a degenerate hellhole. I can not disagree on the water issue but race, police, healthcare and stability issues are common everywhere in the world. Still a great place to live. I would consider moving back perhaps if not for my children and grandchildren living locally here in Oakville. I am presently at my winter res in the Bahamas, full of American residents over wintering as well. Even here same problems exist. Same old same.

#234 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.10.15 at 3:38 pm

Damn good thing we can survive on exports of “Love it Or List it.”
____________________________________________
Dam show is so contrived and phony, cant stand it. Are you going to LOVE IT, OR LIST IT. I wish they would just say F%#K this whole house is a freaking disaster, screw this! Get the F#$K out of my home.

#235 Daisy Mae on 11.10.15 at 3:39 pm

#211: “…the “evil” 1%…”

*****************

Where did I mention ‘evil’?

#236 Prairieboy43 on 11.10.15 at 3:44 pm

Dude, that is one big dog. Looks part wolf/malmute husky. The paws are huge.
Noticed lately MSM sounding alarm, about personnel debt. Has taken longtime. I think many of these people have to truly experience pain first hand. Go to the bottom of the Abyss. Then some of the population, will figure how to get out. Learn the 4H Motto-” Learn to do by doing”. Others will not.
Once this moment arrives (10+ years). Then as nation we start moving forward.

#237 Lillooet, BC on 11.10.15 at 4:08 pm

AYA — what a havoc today?
CTC not good either.

#238 IHCTD9 on 11.10.15 at 4:14 pm

#217 kommykim on 11.10.15 at 2:14 pm

Actually it is the 99% toiling away at wages lower than their true value that allows the 1% their wealth. The multi billionaire did not earn every dollar he has. He leveraged the intellectual and sweat equity of those working below him to make his billions.
____________________________________________

Actually, the 99% would have nothing to toil at if it were not for the jobs provided by business owners. Those who take the risk reap the rewards or the annihilation.

Those working for they who took the risk and succeeded, did not have a gun put to their heads to take the job – they actively sought after it, and in many cases are well rewarded for a job well done.

Any employee can quit at anytime for any reason. If the situation were as you like to portray it – no one would be an employee.

Wages are set in the market place, if you feel that you are not being paid fairly just go around the corner and get a higher paying job – No?

If this proves impossible or at least extremely difficult, then you were being paid fairly.

There is no supreme being that determines what a job is “worth”.

In fact, the availability of cheap labour is often the initial spur to those who would take the risk at business ownership due to the potential for profit. No bonehead would try to start a business that must utilize labour that is priced out of competitiveness in the market into which he must sell.

The point here is, more often than not, the cheap labour is pre-existing, BEFORE the business owner can exist.

I’ve never seen a business paying an uncompetitive wage that keeps any employees for any length of time.

#239 NoName on 11.10.15 at 4:57 pm

#207 conan on 11.10.15 at 12:53 pm

yuo got that thing wrong, i dont fear them, i fix them.
https://youtu.be/3RBSkq-_St8
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#203 IHCTD9 on 11.10.15 at 12:27 pm

The Ontario Nurses’ Association warns hospital patients are at increased risk of dying because of cuts to registered nursing positions across the province…”

that is close to a truth, Mrs NoName a nurse (one of those imported from philippines), if they have call in sick and they cant find replacement from PT stuff or agency, “they” (k.wind government) are running short on stuff, ABSOLUTELY NO OT callins .

Problem is that nurse managers or DOC’s makes LOT more than a nurse and only thing that they do is WHAT? and attend a meetings about budget only on their OT…
how funny is that.

hospitals are top heavy, it seems that they are more inclined cut nurses than bureaucrats.

Did i mention that my son is waiting for surgery for a months now. but that ok, now that Trudeaux will tax doctors more, it will be easier for those that didnt left country yet to leave. why stay here can you go ad work for kaiser, for twice as much money and half of the tax-es.

And that guy about imported filipino nurses, and 150K, i just went to sunshine list 1st page only, only 3 RN got that much, and judging by name 2 out of 3 are definitely not filipino. you are confused dude.

#240 bdy sktrn on 11.10.15 at 4:58 pm

#238 IHCTD9 on 11.10.15 at 4:14 pm
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well said sir.

#241 bdy sktrn on 11.10.15 at 5:01 pm

#218 213comm on 11.10.15 at 2:17 pm

Oh btw the $0.62/L gas in Blaine the other day, was actually $0.82/L
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you better hurry back and get them to change all their signs with the wrong price displayed.

2.40gal = can you do math?

#242 bdy sktrn on 11.10.15 at 5:15 pm

#173 BillyBob on 11.10.15 at 9:23 am

“Thinking of selling” means they have made exactly zero dollars yet. And if they buy again in Vancouver they’ll have to pay even more.

Yep, they’re rich. As long as they’re moving to Saskatoon.
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nope, will be coquitlam. you know, part of that speck of land between boundary road and sask. you must have seen it from the air?

they will be left with a paid off house and prob 10x larger bank acct than they have ever seen before.

what the heck do you care? you have the best job of anyone here and likely make a big fat bundle. so what if you can’t buy a house here – plenty of cash and free flights anywhere anytime sounds pretty great to me. so you missed out on the 604 lotto, big deal, are you pissed at goog/aapl holders too?
go buy a mansion on some tropical beach and rent a 1br in van if you want to hang here part time.

i hear Warren Buffett is ‘thinking of selling’ some holdings too. i guess he hasn’t made a penny yet either?

#243 Mark on 11.10.15 at 5:22 pm

Parliamently Budget Office already calling BS on Trudeau’s claims that he can only run a $10B/annum deficit (when the Harper Government ™ ran deficits nearly 3X larger in his decade of being in office!):

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-parliamentary-budget-officer-economy-trudeau-1.3312226

“The latest PBO numbers, however, suggest the government’s fiscal starting point will be billions of dollars lower in those two years — by $3 billion in 2016-17 and by $4.7 billion in 2017-18. The result could mean deficits of nearly $13 billion in 2016-17 and more than $14 billion in 2017-18.”

And this is without even incorporating significant CMHC subprime insurance claims, or a significant housing downturn into the mix. Or the supposed new spending plans of the Liberals.

The honeymoon is thus likely to wear off quicker than imagined. “Fuddle Duddle” I guess.

#244 Nora Lenderby on 11.10.15 at 6:25 pm

#213 IHCTD9 on 11.10.15 at 1:51 pm
#113 Big Dipper on 11.09.15 at 10:48 pm
-“Canada’s shiny new, gender-perfect T2 cabinet” Nice misogynist sneering attack on the current cabinet composition
____________________________________________
misogynist, misogynist, misogynist, misogynist, misogynist, misogynist. Haven’t all the leftwingnutzfemminazis gotten tired of that word yet?…Good grief – I hope JT imports millions upon millions of Syrian women into Canada ASAP so we can start breeding big dickhead’s kind of out of existence. Third world women FTW!

That’s spelled “feminazi”, dear boy. It’s a portmanteu word made up of feminist and nazi, if you remember what nazis were (and are).

Mr./Ms. Dipper may or may not have overreacted to Mr. T’s sardonic remarks about the ideological purity of the cabinet, gender-wise, but there’s no need to go all frothy.

So Mr. Tractor, I found your observations about the LCBO/BeerStore, Ontario, the business climate, the idiocy of blame between administrations, and the Syrian family interesting and worth reading. I find your spewing bile on others who disagree with you unworthy of anyone with a brain.

#245 Ronaldo on 11.10.15 at 6:48 pm

#168 Art Carnet on 11.10.15 at 6:16 am

”Canada’s housing market faces a looming demographic bubble
Who will be able to afford the pricey homes currently owned by disappearing boomers?”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-s-housing-market-faces-a-looming-demographic-bubble-1.3310637

”Garth has been way ahead of warning of all these now daily reports of housing problems on this blog. Seems to be snowballing now.”

The article talks about houses being built on spec and developers having to sell at all costs to pay back the commercial lenders. Same thing happened in mid 90’s and this was one of the things that started the drop in housing. Too much supply and little demand. Many developments back then were boarded up, half built and it took up to 4 years to get rid of them at rock bottem prices. It was around a 12 year drought.

#246 M on 11.10.15 at 10:40 pm

271,000 of crappy positions, with the huge majority of them going to the 45 yrs old and over..that even those will be revised downwards sometimes in December.
los federales will stay put or go QE in 2016.

Now.. maple leaf land bonds will spike..in no relation to what los federales do. Canadian economy will go bust with the bonds going through the roof. Hey… canadistan might be the epicenter of the earthquake that would unravel the the huge bubble in bonds.

…an excellent show to watch… then and only then…we’ll see who’s swimming naked . And the size of those derrieres… holly molly save my eyesight of those…

#247 Dedicated to kenchie on 11.11.15 at 1:37 am

Generation theft. Now if the young people will stop playing on their i-thingy and stop tweaking, they might give a damn

http://www.businessinsider.com/stan-druckenmiller-on-generational-theft-2013-9

#248 Doug in London on 11.11.15 at 4:20 pm

@M, post #246:
271,000 of crappy positions, with the huge majority of them going to the 45 yrs old and over.
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Could you show us a link? I find the opposite, that there’s a lot of age prejudice out there, especially for anyone over 50.