Rejection

REJECTION modified

“My manager was let go this morning,” Leanne emailed me from the office early last week.  “We’ve been, ahem, asked to timeshift instead of getting paid OT, and train offshore-ers.  So the writing is on the wall.  If I do get ushered into an office in the next few days, do you have any tips for me?”

I did. More below. She texted the next morning: “More guys hit.”

Then another note from the bank. “Tales of second lines of credit and second condo purchases are hitting the floor.  They don’t usually do layoffs this close to bonuses and Christmas and I can’t remember the last time they did layoffs on Tuesday and not Friday. And thank you again for driving home the message about debt, houses, and retirement.  I hate to think just how terrified I’d be if I had a mortgage to pay.”

While the latest jobs numbers (Friday) weren’t bad in Canada, they contained a ton of part-time election employment and couldn’t mask what’s happening in the economy. All of the major banks are now shedding positions – good ones, with DB pensions. Telus punted 1,500 people before the weekend. CTV last week threw out half its editorial staff in Toronto and Montreal. Over 54,000 people have been shown the door in the oil patch and downtown Calgary in the last year. Keystone is dead. Bombardier’s on life support. Shell walked away from an Alberta project leaving $2 billion in the ground. Caterpillar and Heinz are abandoning Ontario. Husky lost $4 billion and shed 1,400 people. And Canadians just elected a majority government promising to tax the rich and overspend – because we’re fearful.

The contrast between the US and Canadian economies is sharp and painful. It’s why I suggested two years back that investors go light on maple and heavier elsewhere. If it were not for dirt-cheap rates and house porn, with people gorging on debt to buy things they cannot afford, we’d all be in the ditch. And while growth here will resume when commodity prices inevitably recover a little, that could take years. Between now and then, people like Leanne will go to work scared each day, or just go home.

“Any chance of a ‘here’s what to do when they pull you aside’ column in the next few days?” she asks. “Most of us do not think about that possibility until we are actually laid off. So what should you do if you haven’t prepared?”

Good idea. First, everybody should strive to make themselves indispensable. Managers are human. They finger people with bad attitudes, excessive wage demands, poor work habits or who back sick days into every long weekend. Corps don’t care if you just bought a house, got married or are fourteen months from your pension. Jobs aren’t social programs. Nobody’s entitled to one. And right now we don’t have enough to go around.

Second, obviously, is what Leanne underscored – assume your income could vanish. Keep debt low and manageable. Live beneath your means and save the rest. Have a Plan B. Don’t snorfle debt just because it’s cheap. Be diversified and balanced. Shun having all your net worth in one thing, like real estate. Understand that when you lose a job you need liquidity and cash flow, not granite and stainless.

Third, never assume your employer needs you. He doesn’t. So it’s a swell idea to have a up-to-date resume, a network of industry contacts and a line on job openings elsewhere. It’s never a wrong time to think about being an entrepreneur, either. Nobody’s ever going to walk into your own bakery, office or garage and fire your ass.

Fourth, if you’re axed, be smart and calculating. Hiring a pricey lawyer because you dislike your package is almost always a loser move. The lawyer loves it, the company ignores you and you burn through precious capital while feeding your anger. Move on. And commute your pension instead of leaving it in the company plan. You can usually roll it over into a self-directed LIRA or RRSP, then get it invested for growth. The more you control, the better

Once the paycheque stops, budgeting takes over. Control your spending. Sell stuff to reduce debt. If you can dump the condo and rent a similar one, you’ll end the mortgage payments, strata fees, and property taxes, pay off the debt, have bucks to invest for income and reduce your cash flow by half. Or you can hang on waiting for another job which may not come for a long time, while mortgage rates rise, the market fades and your equity erodes. In other words, try not to be a fool.

Don’t be proud. Apply for EI. Move back home. Beg your ex to take you in. Shop at Costco. Turn the thermostat down. Get a crappy part-time job some Millennial will hate you for. If you’re over 50, face the fact this might be the last time you have a career gig. So do a financial assessment and determine if you actually need to work again, or can get by through adjusting your lifestyle, downsizing, moving or just putting all your capital to work generating investment income, trading brain-dead GICs for things offering regular dividends or tax-cheap capital gains. If you don’t think you need some help, you’re (a) rich or (b) ignorant.

Finally, never assume this happens to some other dude. I’ve lost jobs, been fired and seen my position eliminated. It sucks. But after the first episode I made sure I was ready for the next one. Minimal debt, max liquidity and lots of self-employment. Things don’t always work out. But failure beats rejection.

Or, you can always start a free blog.

251 comments ↓

#1 ptbobman on 11.08.15 at 3:20 pm

excellent USA real estate prices by city in a graph from the economist http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/11/daily-chart-0

#2 James L on 11.08.15 at 3:21 pm

However, the text of the TPP outlines a large number of specific trades that could come to Canada under a category called “professionals and technicians,” including electrical trades and “other construction trades.”

That section states that “Canada shall grant temporary entry and provide a work permit or work authorization to Professionals and Technicians and will not: (a) require labour certification tests or other procedures of similar intent as a condition for temporary entry; or (b) impose or maintain any numerical restriction relating to temporary entry.”

TPP text raises concerns over regulation of temporary foreign workers

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/tpp-text-raises-concerns-over-control-of-temporary-foreign-workers/article27165905/

#3 conan on 11.08.15 at 3:29 pm

If you going to be an entrepreneur for God’s sake think of a service that can be delivered to business.

If you think of a business that is just for people in their homes you will get killed by the do not call rules.

Mail outs do not work. You will have to go door to door and that’s not fun. Also, the weather in this country is poor and that is being kind. That leaves you about 60 days where the weather is nice enough for you to knock on doors and people bothering to answer so that they can berate you.

#4 Nick on 11.08.15 at 3:43 pm

Get a government job: good pension, health plan, and holidays; a growth industry for the next decade. :)

#5 Jenkins54 on 11.08.15 at 3:57 pm

#114 Smoking Man on 11.06.15 at 10:52 pm

#94 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.06.15 at 9:27 pm
A lot of house horny Americans here in the Bahamas! They buy up everything! I guess we are very similar.
…..

Love the way you Yanks to business.. pros all the way.
Even parking the plane at YYZ tonight. Communism stench in the air. Long delay for ramp attendeds, then a huge maze of turns and twists to get out side for my smoke.

Once there, dirty glances and cut eye from all the commies.

got to figure out a way to leave for good before its to late.

God Bless America….
——————-

Sounds like your masters have conditioned you already.

#6 TurnerNation on 11.08.15 at 4:10 pm

Attn. those in last teens/early 20s.

– If you are not into University/College then become police, fireman, or military. Enjoy 20

years of guaranteed job, indexed salary and gold plated benefits, then retire at age 40 with

indexed pension and gold plated benefits to pursure whatever you wish.

– If you must go to University, take a soft degree: write papers on your feelings or

historical books, plays etc. – info which may be copied/re-hashed from old papers.
Then, get a job in Public Sector: government or Crown Corp. or NGO as regular employee or high-priced consultant. Enjoy 20 years of guaranteed job, indexed salary and gold plated benefits, then retire at age 40 with indexed pension and gold plated beneifts, to pursure whatever you wish.

See: our new prime minister has a BA in Literature. (Social media practitioners also are

encouraged.)

– Under no circumstances work in private sector *unless you are a born salesperson or

Entrepreneur.

– Do not take a hard degree: Accounting, Engineering, Law. These jobs are increasingly

commoditized, outsourced or cheaply brought in from overseas, or ‘Uberized’. See: Robo

advisors.

Signed,

Someone born 20 years before you.

Ps. If you are in AB and want a first car with street cred get something like this one. Just

add bondo:
http://www.kijiji.ca/v-classic-cars/calgary/1981-camaro-z28-auto-3700-obo/1116585955?

(There’s no replacement for displacement.)

#7 waiting on the westcoast on 11.08.15 at 4:12 pm

When I was nineteen, am old retired guy told me to work two jobs… That way I made double the income and would be too tired to spend it… It worked, I did it for a year and saved 10k. Then I quit one job and took my girlfriend on two trips and spent a month on holiday with some buddies and hit the clubs when back in town.

Wiped out the savings in 6 months but learned a lot of great lessons:
– Cashflow is king.
– Anytime I start having too much money available and feel the need to spend it, I invest it in either my portfolio or a startup
– The less you are owned by the machine, the more it solicits you and gives you better opportunities and value.
– Only buy value/quality (whether a home, clothes, etc) and be cautious of getting caught up in brands and their allure.
– Money does but happiness but it is shortlived and insatiable. Fine what you really care about and soul yourself there. All other luxuries are truly a waste of your energy.
– Blow some money once in a while to remind yourself that it will not make you as happy as it seemed to at the time.

#8 OXI in GREECE !! on 11.08.15 at 4:13 pm

Yes sir…step right up and get a parasite….I mean govt job. Because there is lots and lots of tax dollars floating around to pay those high salaries with benefits and pensions the rest of us sorry assed plebs don’t get……oh wait…..

#9 down and out on 11.08.15 at 4:15 pm

Great advice should be heeded by all no matter what your position in life. Well done

#10 ontariomess on 11.08.15 at 4:22 pm

Be a teacher and whine and moan for raises.

#11 mark on 11.08.15 at 4:29 pm

Drive a Kia?

#12 For those about to flop... on 11.08.15 at 4:29 pm

Third, never assume your employer needs you. He doesn’t – Garth.
////////////////////////////////////
Ahh boss ,never assume that your employer is a man.
They aren’t always ! *

*Note ,no real bosses were hurt during this post…

#13 Entrepreneur on 11.08.15 at 4:37 pm

“Jobs aren’t social programs. Nobody’s entitled to one.” Unless company bailed out by the government, what it that called? (My guess, holding Canada up.) As for the no entitlement for a job, only for us on the outside looking in at all government workers, top to bottom. Let the rules reign over all of us.

#14 prairie person on 11.08.15 at 4:43 pm

Garth, I don’t know what is going on. That 995,000 house sold and today there were sold signs on a restored heritage (large) and a new build. For sale signs are popping up but so are sold signs. I don’t have any numbers but I can see something has happened in Victoria. Vancouverites downsizing? They can sell a house for 2 million and buy a nice place for 700k to 1 mil. in Victoria. Tuck away 1 mil. in an acct. to top up their portfolio, pension. Or? Rushing to get in before interest rates rise? Even though they must know that if interest rates rise, prices will fall? Sure wish we had a prov. govt. that would insist that information would be available for people making the biggest financial decision of their lives. Thanks for today’s blog post. I know a lot of younger people that need to read it and heed it.

#15 Overlord on 11.08.15 at 4:48 pm

How private lenders and debt-crazed homebuyers are pushing Toronto’s real-estate market to the brink:
http://torontolife.com/

#16 MEANWHILE IN FRANCE on 11.08.15 at 4:50 pm

Europe never looked better. To me.

#17 Nic on 11.08.15 at 4:52 pm

http://www.thedailyobserver.ca/2015/11/02/treat-or-trick-is-our-wealth-in-canada-nothing-but-an-illusion

#18 takla on 11.08.15 at 4:55 pm

That dog looks like he’s wondering where his next meals comeing from…..soon he’ll have company

#19 takla on 11.08.15 at 4:58 pm

PS..
Don’t forget to support you local foodbanks this winter ,all you hi-rollers :}

#20 StayPrepared on 11.08.15 at 5:03 pm

Wonderful post. Just wondering if the “commute your pension” also applies to DB jobs in provincial postsecondary sector jobs?

#21 Freedom First on 11.08.15 at 5:04 pm

Through unfortunate circumstances I was on my own at 17. 0 inheritance or help of any kind in my life. 0 social assistance. I worked, went to school, then worked and went to night school for Business. Upgraded my education throughout my life. Cleaned toilets, shoveled $hit at the racetrack, packed groceries, worked construction, did whatever I had to do. I know what a layoff and a job loss is too. By the age of 50 I no longer had to work, but I did and I do. My title, supreme commander.

Yes. Supporting oneself is a lifetime gig. There is no such thing as good debt. Except for all of the people who profit from other peoples debt. That would be me.

#22 Calgary's Housing Market on 11.08.15 at 5:07 pm

CALGARY DOWNER

Calgary’s sinking housing market will soon have to deal with the heavy weight of rising 5-year mortgage rates. That’s coming soon.

Even the smallest increase in mortgage rates will have a significant negative impact on housing markets across Canada, including Calgary‘s, of course.

This is obvious when we consider the highly stimulative impact that two small rate drops (earlier in 2015) had on Canada’s housing market. Diana Petramala of TD Economics explains:

“This underscores our view that the highly stimulative impact of lower mortgage rates at the start of this year would wear out by September, October.”

Realtors have been bombarding the comments section of Garth’s blog in an attempt to convince you that only a big increase in rates would be able to negatively affect the housing market. This claim is, of course, false and is repeatedly made without any evidence to support it.

The heavy weight of rising 5-year mortgage rates will be added to the long list of economic problems ($45 oil, for example) already weighing heavily on Calgarians and their housing market.

Calgary’s R/E board has been working hard to create the (false) impression that house prices haven’t fallen much by not including the sales of houses that sold for 60% below assessed value in their stats.

House prices in Calgary will fall significantly. Many Calgary families will be hit hard financially by the coming deep price correction.

If you buy now in Calgary you will be forced to watch the value of your house drop year after year, forcing you to deal with severe financial problems as a result.

Calgary’s economy is facing several years of extremely difficult challenges. You could lose your job any day. Taking on a massive amount of debt on an asset set to lose a big chunk of its value would be a colossal financial mistake.

Wait for lower prices.

#23 Downsized and loving it on 11.08.15 at 5:09 pm

We downsized recently and made 12k selling stuff on Craigslist and eBay. We just had too much, and it was shocking to see what we had spent our hard earned and taxed money on. So the kayaks, outdoor gear, tools, excess furniture, musical instruments, kitchen gadgets, motorbike, etc. all went to happy new homes. The funny thing is, once we moved into the smaller place with only the things we really love, we don’t notice anything missing from our lives. I recommend reading the book, “The life-changing magic of tidying up” by Marie Kondo. Lighten the load, make some cash, and refocus your life.

#24 Investorz on 11.08.15 at 5:10 pm

Preach the Word of Garth (Kevin O’Leary thinks the same way). Tell your family the joy of dividends, of seing 20, 40, 60 dollars appearing into your bank account from different stocks and ETFs, each month or three.

If they afraid (I was too before I educated myself), tell them to start investing in a company they see every day.

Take A&W fast food. If you live in Toronto you must walk by one regularly. Is a business that sells burgers scary to invest in? It shouldn’t be. I just convinced my dad who’s 65 to buy some shares of it. He loves the 6% dividend. After tax it’s 10 times more than a GIC. Then there’s PizzaPizza. Will canadians really stop eating fast food as economic times turn bad? Of course not. What they WILL do is stop going to expensive restaurants.

Or if a stock is making them tremble, preferred shares starting recovering and give a dividend of 5.7%. BMO has an ETF. Is it that scary to buy a product from BMO? There’s 1.1 billion dollars of canadian’s money in there. Plenty of people enjoying the monthly payment.

Every time a family member tells me they have a 1.5% GIC I compare that return to an after-tax dividend I get. Take ZPR preferred shares from BMO that returns 5.7%. After tax, it’s like getting a 10% GIC.

Then tell them that their 1.5% dividend isn’t even covering the pace at which food in increasing in price at Metro.

#25 Leo Trollstoy on 11.08.15 at 5:12 pm

#1 ptbobman on 11.08.15 at 3:20 pm

Thanks.

#26 Roy on 11.08.15 at 5:13 pm

Hey, Garth– why all the hate for Costco? The slow-moving crowds and crazy parking lot drive me nuts, but the prices and quality make it worth the hassle, overall….

#27 lala on 11.08.15 at 5:17 pm

As lala says, blessed are dual citizenships. In the left back pocket I keep Canadian Passport, on the right Austrian one.

#28 Nemesis on 11.08.15 at 5:35 pm

#How Much Did They Pay You to Give Up on Your Dreams?…

https://youtu.be/TkX-TPaodoM

#29 jess on 11.08.15 at 5:36 pm

If people are paid a bonus to cheat in the local supermarket what about this part of the TPP

‘Encourages the use of private certifications for food safety instead of government inspection:
The TPP includes new language that encourages the use of private certifications of food safety assurances —either third party certifications or potentially even self-certification —that would meet the same food safety objectives. Third party or self-certified food safety claims are considerably worse than independent government oversight because there is a financial incentive to certify the food as safe. Several U.S. food safety outbreaks have occurred at facilities that received private certifications that attested to their food safety (the companies behind the 2009 peanut butter salmonella outbreak, 2010 egg salmonella outbreak and the 2011 cantaloupe listeria outbreak all received outstanding ratings from their third-party certifier
http://www.citizen.org/documents/analysis-tpp-text-november-2015.pdf

#30 Todd on 11.08.15 at 5:37 pm

Today’s picture hurts my heart.

#31 Kenchie on 11.08.15 at 5:39 pm

Garth, your topic is well-timed.

Last night, I had dinner at my cousin’s house. She works for Golder Associates (www.golder.ca) and said that the company has been doing miserably since commodity prices have been in the gutter.

When she started in early 2013 there were 14 people on the team. By the end of September 2015, there were 4 people left. By the end of October 2015, there were 2 people left once they completed some project. However, she was told on Friday not to be worried because they want her to recreate the team as a standalone unit.

That said, it’s not a happy ending for the other Golder Associates employees. She was told that the GTA offices (there are multiple) will need to shed $12 million in salaries by the end of November. So that’s not good…

#32 common sense on 11.08.15 at 5:41 pm

Wonderful post Garth…

I will add a few more tips..

Your very vulnerable just losing a job. Thus:

Watch out for scams offering to start a business…remember if you don’t like sales, self employment is 85% sales, 15% following through on what you sell.

Fully investigate any franchise, etc before even thinking of opening one.

Let everyone in the world know your seeking employment.

If you haven’t interviewed in years, practice with friends a few times before going to one.

Remember it’s not what a company can do for you, it’s what you can do for a company.

Start asap seeking employment…Do not wait. The new year has to be the worst time to look for any type of work.

Good Luck. I’ve been self employed for 25 years and for the first time in 10, I have to start seeking new clients. In the meantime I’m taking a p/t job 28 hours a week to cover expenses…luckily, I have always lived below my means, have zero debt and a nice chunk of change saved for retirement…just wish I was 60 instead of 54!

New blog to follow…

#33 Retired WI Boomer on 11.08.15 at 5:56 pm

Being fired, let-go, downsized, whatever you wish to call it is an inevitable part of benign the work force in today’s world.

I have had the experience a few times in my storied career. Transportation is probably almost as renown for it as IT.

Start anew tomorrow. Being flexible to relocate, or having your bills controlled is a huge help in this situation.

Great advice Garth, I hate to see anybody going through the exercise, but (sigh) it DOES dorm to be a right of passage these days even more so than 30 years ago.

#34 Michael King on 11.08.15 at 6:04 pm

I am 62 and happily retired but went through losing a job multiple times. It’s just part of the deal in a modern developed economy. From experience, I recommend a few things. First, familiarize yourself with your province’s employment standards. An employer can fire you because they don’t like the colour of your car. This is called wrongful dismissal and is common. Employment standards mandate minimum severance payments. Second, not all lawyers are greedy sharks wishing to bill as many hours as possible. Good labour lawyers exist, mine helped me receive much more than the original severance offer from two ex-employers. Even after paying his fees, I had way more money in my pocket than if I’d caved at the first offers. The first consultation should be free and that is when the lawyer should explain your options clearly and simply. Remember, companies don’t want protracted litigation. Their lawyers charge as much as any other.

#35 common sense on 11.08.15 at 6:05 pm

One question for all blog dogs…

Can anyone give advice as to how they are diversifying in this environment of QE markets vs natural supply and demand markets?

Please.

And suggestions on shorting CDN real estate which seems a natural soon to be an opportunity…

Thank you sincerely, one and all.

#36 Retired WI Boomer on 11.08.15 at 6:11 pm

‘dorm’ should be “seem”

#37 Victoria Real Estate Update on 11.08.15 at 6:28 pm

# 14 prairie person

I recently posted this information. You must have missed it.

Total Single Family Home Sales
. . January through October. . .
. . . . . Greater Victoria. . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2007…*****************
2015…**
————————————————
. . . . . . -5%. . . . . . . . . . 0%

(source: Victoria’s R/E board)

2015 has been a below average year for SFH sales in Greater Victoria (2007 was an average year).

SFH sales are behind 2007’s pace by 5.4%.

Let’s put 2015’s SFH sales total into proper perspective. To do that it will be necessary to consider the following important factors (that realtors rarely talk about):

1. INTEREST RATES

In October 2007, 5-year fixed mortgage rates were at 5.88% (second chart).

In October 2015, 5-year fixed rates were less than half of that, at 2.37%.

Realtors fear rising rates because they know that, in general, sales decrease and house prices fall as interest rates rise.

The opposite is also true – sales increase and prices rise as rates fall.

Looking at the above chart, it’s clear that 2015’s sales total should be much higher than 2007’s if we take interest rates into account.

How much higher should SFH sales be this year (compared to 2007) with today‘s highly stimulative rates? 30% higher? 40% higher? 50% higher?

It’s obvious that SFH sales have been extremely weak and disappointing so far in 2015.

2. POPULATION GROWTH IN GREATER VICTORIA SINCE 2007

This one is simple – more people (than in 2007) and more houses (than in 2007) should result in more SFH sales (than in 2007).

However, this is not the case.

If we take both of these factors (much lower interest rates and population growth) into account, it exposes just how weak SFH sales have been so far this year in Greater Victoria.

#38 dr talc on 11.08.15 at 6:38 pm

TPP?
Done deal, thanks Harpo

http://www.international.gc.ca/trade-agreements-accords-commerciaux/agr-acc/tpp-ptp/index.aspx?lang=eng

Still think you have a goverment? Ha ha ha

#39 Calgary's Housing Market on 11.08.15 at 6:49 pm

The seller of this updated SW Calgary home is having difficulty getting a deal done.

51 Bridlecreek Gate, SW (# C4031567)

* Listed at 11.5% below assessed value.

* Assessed value: $434.5 K, currently listed at $384.8 K (previously at $399.8 K)

* 1,087 sq. ft., 2 beds, 2 baths, attached double garage
* Updated

#40 Smoking Man on 11.08.15 at 6:56 pm

Here’s one for you budding entrepreneurs.

Start a consultanting company on how to use TFW with out getting caught.

Target the big banks.

Use TFW in your NYC office to take Canadian Jobs, and use TFW in your CANADIAN office to take jobs from USA workers. Staff according to currency fluctuations.

Wait, someone imoral vermon did that already. :)

If you’re a lazy dumb entitled bitch..govt job is what to look for.

If you are creative, fearless, and have a good work ethic. Open three business at the same time.

That insures you’re not hands on, hire good people and if your short loot.

Lots of VC out there looking for yeild..

Look for growth in proffecinal services sector, lots of future growth protected.

#41 Gray Man on 11.08.15 at 7:01 pm

So who does one believe Garth ?
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/11/06/another-phony-payroll-jobs-number-paul-craig-roberts/

I don’t care. — Garth

#42 Smoking Man on 11.08.15 at 7:10 pm

#5 Jenkins54 on 11.08.15 at 3:57 pm
#114 Smoking Man on 11.06.15 at 10:52 pm

#94 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.06.15 at 9:27 pm
A lot of house horny Americans here in the Bahamas! They buy up everything! I guess we are very similar.
…..

Love the way you Yanks to business.. pros all the way.
Even parking the plane at YYZ tonight. Communism stench in the air. Long delay for ramp attendeds, then a huge maze of turns and twists to get out side for my smoke.

Once there, dirty glances and cut eye from all the commies.

got to figure out a way to leave for good before its to late.

God Bless America….
——————-

Sounds like your masters have conditioned you already.
…..

Masters, hardly…

The dude that owns the company I’m consulting to is a huge VC out of the Uk.. worth billions.

I’m already a multi millionaire.. but I want to make the forbs mag as a billionaire.

I’ve made, I’ve lost it all, Ive made it back to many times to count.

Too old for hard ass risk… that’s for youth with time.

I have a huge idea that will require about 50 million to get off the ground. Don’t have that much..

So off to training, learn. Become the best, then pitch when we both trust each other.

3 year plan… and I’m way ahead of schedule.

#43 Senta on 11.08.15 at 7:12 pm

#34 Michael King – Totally agree.
If you get fired, always get your severance looked at by an employment lawyer.

You must be a lawyer. — Garth

#44 pj on 11.08.15 at 7:17 pm

What is ‘timeshift’?

#45 For those about to flop... on 11.08.15 at 7:19 pm

#21 Freedom First on 11.08.15 at 5:04 pm
Through unfortunate circumstances I was on my own at 17. 0 inheritance or help of any kind in my life. 0 social assistance. I worked, went to school, then worked and went to night school for Business. Upgraded my education throughout my life. Cleaned toilets, shoveled $hit at the racetrack, packed groceries, worked construction, did whatever I had to do. I know what a layoff and a job loss is too. By the age of 50 I no longer had to work, but I did and I do. My title, supreme commander.

Yes. Supporting oneself is a lifetime gig. There is no such thing as good debt. Except for all of the people who profit from other peoples debt. That would be me.

//////////////////////////////////
Cmon man ,you got Alzheimer’s or something ?
That’s the third time you’ve posted that crap .
Write something new ,something shiny, something from deep down inside that you have never thought of before.
Geez Broke Dick,OLC Common Sense gonna love that crap.Stop making yourself a target,think new thoughts.
Good Luck.

#46 For those about to flop... on 11.08.15 at 7:27 pm

Common sense # 32Good Luck. I’ve been self employed for 25 years and for the first time in 10, I have to start seeking new clients. In the meantime I’m taking a p/t job 28 hours a week to cover expenses…luckily, I have always lived below my means, have zero debt and a nice chunk of change saved for retirement…just wish I was 60 instead of 54!
///////////////////////////////////////
Don’t wish your life away my friend your a long time dead.
6 years can go quick but when your in ill health you’ll be glad you enjoyed the bulk of you life .
Good Luck with your new adventure .

#47 Carbon Tax Woman on 11.08.15 at 7:32 pm

Burning the midnight oil already…… just itching to sign up a massive carbon tax by year end. Justina and his new carbon tax champion all googly eyed with the sheer joy of killing off the knuckle dragging western red necks.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/new-environment-minister-attends-climate-change-talks-in-paris/article27168650/

#48 Smoking Man on 11.08.15 at 7:51 pm

#44 pj on 11.08.15 at 7:17 pm
What is ‘timeshift’?
….

When a drunken Nectonite is tailing your car in a Glowing orange plasma flyer. Your home is 30 minutes away, and you make it home in 3 minute’s..

Thats time shift baby…

#49 SimplyPut7 on 11.08.15 at 7:54 pm

This was a good post, but I think you need to expand the topic to help people who are in certain sectors of the economy that won’t have a large number of well paying jobs in that sector for a very long time (e.g. 2 – 3 years).

As well as, people who are more mature (age 50+) who have lost their senior executive job and may not be able to find another management position that is paying as well as their previous job before they are ready to retire.

I think you should discuss further how to adjust to such situations and what to do when reality sets in and people realize life is different from now on.

For example, are there any ways to tell this is a minor set back in life, and the person will be able to keep the lifestyle that they have grown a custom to or is this the new normal for the person and they should change their entire life to avoid bankruptcy (e.g. USA – post 2009).

#50 Karla on 11.08.15 at 7:56 pm

This post is aptly timed. My brother, a middle management engineer in Calgary, just lost his job last week. His position had been split in half two years ago, and now that the company is laying off hundreds of people, he was axed.
In highschool my brother won the governor general’s award. I’ve always known him to be incredibly smart, hardworking, and a person of integrity. I was more than shocked that he could lose his job. When I asked why it was him instead of the other guy, he said his boss is more conservative than most (in an industry known for its conservative outlook), while my brother is more liberal than most. He thinks it may have contributed to his boss’s choice.
The reality is that there is no such thing as indispensible. You might want to add to your list of proactive choices to never reveal your personal points of veiw to a boss who may not agree with you.
Fortunately my brother has not over-extended himself financially. His house is paid for, his wife is well employed, and he’s smart enough to have a good sum of money in investments. Even at that, he said he still wasn’t sleeping very well last week. Chances of a comparable job in Calgary at this moment in time aren’t that great.

#51 kommykim on 11.08.15 at 7:58 pm

RE:

#32 common sense on 11.08.15 at 5:41 pm
just wish I was 60 instead of 54!

Your wish will come true in 6 years and by then you’ll be wishing you were 54.

#52 The Minister of Carbon Tax on 11.08.15 at 8:01 pm

Already in Paris… burning that jet fuel to sign that carbon tax…. never heard of teleconferencing?

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/politics/canada+environment+minister+attends+climate+change+talks+paris/11502173/story.html

#53 Nora Lenderby on 11.08.15 at 8:03 pm

#47 Carbon Tax Woman on 11.08.15 at 7:32 pm
Justina and his new carbon tax champion all googly eyed with the sheer joy of killing off the knuckle dragging western red necks.

Oh, I’m certain Mr. Trudeau hasn’t given killing you even a single thought, dear boy. It would, however, reduce your output of carbon dioxide, and, I hesitate to say, methane. Both greenhouse gases :-)

#54 kommykim on 11.08.15 at 8:03 pm

RE:

#44 pj on 11.08.15 at 7:17 pm
What is ‘timeshift’?

Weird hours without any extra pay.
ie: Working the 11:00pm to 7:30am shift for your regular 9-5 wage.

#55 landlessinvan on 11.08.15 at 8:07 pm

Garth: ¨And Canadians just elected a majority government promising to tax the rich and overspend – because we’re fearful.¨
No, we elected a majority government to get rid of the worst Premier the country has ever seen. The damage done by Harper and cohorts will take a long time to undo. You seem to forget that we are where we are BECAUSE of the Conservatives.

#56 Smoking Man on 11.08.15 at 8:24 pm

Being Wasted on a Sunday night probably indicates some issues. Being at a casino is another sign of something is wrong.

Was playing Caribbean Stud with two gay men couples.

Love these guys…so full of character and love of life. Told then I’m hard core straight, but would do Freddy…
They invited me and wifyee to a party in two weeks.. we’re going..

Had them laughing like crazy.

Told em Lesbians scare the shit out of me. To my surprise, they too are scared shirtless of Lesbians..

They hate men regardless of sex preference ..they told me.

Who would have known…learn something new everyday.

For you beauties…. Really enjoyed hanging with these guys.

https://youtu.be/R-soyspdwqU

#57 tom on 11.08.15 at 8:29 pm

very nice…as a contract worker my whole life we endured christmas layoffs..recession layoffs and so on ..we always lived below our means…we had to be able to pay the bills on ei…we’re old now and we watch the train wreck coming and wonder what the cost will be

#58 Nagraj on 11.08.15 at 8:30 pm

Further to that photo: the dog’s name is Xavier, X for short.
9 and 16, the bats, were heading home because of the sudden rain. They heard X crying.

They landed and grew very very big. 9 put his huge right wing down on the ground, 16 nudged X onto it and then covered X tightly with his enormous left wing. X was flown via this dynamic dual real batmobile to the Harpers.

DING DONG

Laureeny: “Oh my goodness! Who are you? You poor thing. Well come on in, come on.”

flappety flap flappety flap flappety flap

She notices her two (now very little) bats. “What are you guys doin’ out in the rain? You get right back to your houses. Now. Shoosh! You’ll catch cold! Shoosh!”

As Laureeny’s feeding X and towelling him dry, Gypsy the cat and Stanley the innocent kitten peek into the kitchen. Gypsy: “Oh brother. Another one. Figgers.” Stanley: “He’s too big for the blender – maybe if I slice him up first – ”

On the way back to their 24 Sussex houses, 9 and 16 recognize the man weeping in the rain, it’s the Harpers’ chef whom Sophie Gregoire fired.

9 says, “Well no surprise there, eh? Like pan-fried prairie oysters five days and hot dogs on weekends, honestly.” 16 responds, “I hope the new guy does steak Tartare. Damn rain’s gettin’ worse, damn rain, damn rain.”

#59 Snowboid on 11.08.15 at 8:33 pm

#6 TurnerNation on 11.08.15 at 4:10 pm…

I take it from your vast knowledge of the public service that you retired at 40. How else could you know so much about the golden ones?

Of course, that gold-plated pension would only pay about 21K annually after 20 years service (RCMP Constable at highest possible salary). Also you must be aware that almost 10% of your salary is deducted for your pension plan share.

Then you also know there are penalties to take most public service pensions before 55.

In any case, those gold-plated pensions paid out 40K average per pensioner last year for those who retired with 35 years service (BC).

The gold-plated benefits include indexing to the slightly understated cost of living increases (not guaranteed), partial payment of extended health and dental (70% coverage with deductible – not guaranteed) and partial payment of life insurance plan until 65 (not guaranteed). The medical/dental is paid out at 70% of what the insurer deems an appropriate sum – so far we have never found anyone who charges the same or less than the plan pays. My health isn’t too hot, so am out of pocket about $ 3500 a year, my wife about $ 500.

Oh BTW there most certainly is a replacement for displacement. Our current car is 2 litres smaller than the 350 auto Z28, but has 150 more horsepower. 0-60 8.7 seconds for the Z28, 5.1 for our current car.

Either way I certainly wouldn’t recommend a Camaro as a first car, having owned two of them in past.

#60 omg the original on 11.08.15 at 8:38 pm

prairie person on 11.08.15 at 4:43 pm
Garth, I don’t know what is going on. That 995,000 house sold and today there were sold signs on a restored heritage (large) and a new build. For sale signs are popping up but so are sold signs. I don’t have any numbers but I can see something has happened in Victoria.
——————————-
Hey PP

Not sure where you are in Vic, but here in Oak Bay and in Fairfield properties that are listed close to market value always seem to sell with a week or two.

The ones right in my area were I can get to know the people have gone to young professionals with kids.

And yep, I would say OB and FF have bucked the trend over the past few year – I would guess up 10 to 15% from when I sold in late 2006.

Still delusion prices, but that Victoria.

#61 LoveThisBlog on 11.08.15 at 8:44 pm

#6 Turner Nation, you wrote :

“Then, get a job in Public Sector: government or Crown Corp. or NGO as regular employee or high-priced consultant. Enjoy 20 years of guaranteed job, indexed salary and gold plated benefits, then retire at age 40 with indexed pension and gold plated beneifts, to pursure whatever you wish.”

Lol, I can assure you, it is not all it’s cracked up to be. Are they good jobs? YES.

Can you retire at 40 to pursue whatever you wish? NOPE. They aren’t THAT good bud. I have one, and live VERY frugally. With any luck, I can retire at 58 and never work again. Like I said, I live VERY frugally.

#62 Mark on 11.08.15 at 8:45 pm

“In highschool my brother won the governor general’s award. I’ve always known him to be incredibly smart, hardworking, and a person of integrity.”

A very common situation for engineers these days. I noticed a big shift in the early 2000s — employers moved from hiring the most qualified, bright, and ambitious people possible, even to the point of hiring overqualified people. To hiring the least qualified people who could possibly get the job done at probably the lowest cost of overall employment. Sounds like your brother has fallen into the trap.

At some level, this HR fad makes sense. After all, why not minimize costs and maximize retention. But it can’t possibly bode well long-term for society when our best and brightest are being thrown to the wolves disproportionately. Especially technical leaders such as engineers who not only keep the day-to-day operations of the company going, but are also the long-term innovative brain-trust of the economy.

A lot of people thought it wasn’t a big problem when the careers of people in Canada’s tech sector were destroyed in the 2000s with the demise of Nortel and similar firms. Many of whom still haven’t found replacement employment. After all, it was just a relatively small group of nerds who were paid a lot of money for their skills and most had earned very healthy salaries in years prior. But now its happening to a much wider cross-section of the population. Which is unfortunate.

The former approach to companies needing to severely downsize was to keep engineers employed, in anticipation of an eventual up-turn which would see them back in demand. Even if they had to take pay reductions and be sent into the field to do a lot of the work formerly done by technicians. But today, they just throw ’em to the wolves. The long term be damned.

#63 live within your means on 11.08.15 at 8:45 pm

Many, many years ago after a trip to Spain & Portugal with an older sis & mutual friend I decided to pay off all of my debts & swore I would not buy anything unless I could pay it off at the end of the month.

Now both hubby & I do the same thing. Yes, we do a lot of shopping at Costco. When we find a bargain at other places we will buy a lot as we have the money & have the place to store it. We are both frugal in some ways but can afford to splurge on other things, if we want to.

And we do support the Food Banks & other charities, etc. As a teenager, living in Montreal, I worked for a couple babysitting after school every day & weekends.

I worked in town and all of my summer holidays in order to buy my own clothes, etc.

The only time I ever had had a real holiday was when I moved to the province I now live in. I decided to take 2 months off during the summer. I then found a job with the province in September. Because of having worked for the Feds for 3 years in Ottawa & abroad, I was able to buy back my service and retire at 54. I have never regretted doing so. Life is short and one never knows what will happen in life. Hubby & I worked out what it was costing me, financially & otherwise, & we decided it was worth it for me to retire.

#64 omg the original on 11.08.15 at 8:45 pm

So what should you do if you haven’t prepared?”
————————

Always remember its not the END OF THE WORLD. Things will get better and life will go on.

When I look back at the two major layoff events of my life they directly lead me to where I am today – which would look pretty good from any outside perspective.

At the time of the layoffs I was super stressed and thought I may never find another job again in my area (economics).

But now almost 30 year later I have to work really hard to remember how “end of world it seemed” (and not because my memory is going).

So make sure to do some things to put it all in perspective and reduce the stress do some fun physical things, volunteer, get involved with the Conservative party, connect with old friends not to network but just to have fun.

#65 Rexx Rock on 11.08.15 at 8:48 pm

Buy Bitcoin,even stronger than usd.%0.25 interest rate cut in the next few months so go variable rate.Another Qe 4 for the US stock market,so buy on the dips.There you a go,hope that helps a few investors out.

#66 VB on 11.08.15 at 8:51 pm

Bombardiers a triple…I love it!

#67 TurnerNation on 11.08.15 at 8:57 pm

Jobs? One could awake and learn their car no longer meets global emissions standards therefore cannot get to work. A perfectly good car will be crushed (as in Cash for Clunkers) while your family starves.
Globally approved ‘Peoples’ Car’ instead must be purchased. ..everything old is new again.

Our Instagram PM is but a local distraction. Decisions are centralized globally now. See TPP. Did you vote on it?

Man things are moving fast. Plan is on track. I guess Kanada was not to be an oil producer. Or in defense (Avro Arrow anyone? ). Same old story.

In what will our globally assigned production quota be? Planned economy (to suck).

#68 Smoking Man on 11.08.15 at 8:59 pm

You know you’re toast. You know you’re done.

But you keep smiling, having fun…all the way to the last second..

Who gives a shit about rates, and the foot ball pool where every participant scared to death to post on trash talk.. ya, we all must suck up for that bungalow in lake muskoka.

Cowards…

https://youtu.be/BTPrDS-B7tY

What a human spirit….

#69 For those about to flop... on 11.08.15 at 9:02 pm

Cripes ,after reading Nagrajs poop maybe I gave Freedom First some crappy advice.
Maybe I don’t want people to reach deep down inside and write something original after all.
Freedom First tell us how you were abandoned and shovelled shit for the fourth time it can’t be as bad as …

#70 S.Bby on 11.08.15 at 9:04 pm

My sister in law got a gov job. She is a CA. for 85K a year and four weeks vacation to start. Pension and job security. There is a clerk there who makes 100,000K / yr with 8+ weeks vacation, pension, sick days, etc, what a life.

#71 Climate knuckle dragger on 11.08.15 at 9:06 pm

#53 Nora Lenderby on 11.08.15 at 8:03 pm
#47 Carbon Tax Woman on 11.08.15 at 7:32 pm
Justina and his new carbon tax champion all googly eyed with the sheer joy of killing off the knuckle dragging western red necks.

Oh, I’m certain Mr. Trudeau hasn’t given killing you even a single thought, dear boy. It would, however, reduce your output of carbon dioxide, and, I hesitate to say, methane. Both greenhouse gases :-)
——
No concern for climate knuckle draggers for sure. Our only hope is our decomposing carcasses spew a lot methane. Of course then they’ll institute a methane death tax. Gold stickers for Justina and his mistress of climate taxation.

#72 Patrick on 11.08.15 at 9:11 pm

#39 Calgary’s Housing Market on 11.08.15 at 6:49 pm
The seller of this updated SW Calgary home is having difficulty getting a deal done.

51 Bridlecreek Gate, SW (# C4031567)

* Listed at 11.5% below assessed value.

* Assessed value: $434.5 K, currently listed at $384.8 K (previously at $399.8 K)

* 1,087 sq. ft., 2 beds, 2 baths, attached double garage
* Updated
______________________________________

1,000 sq. ft for 390k is still a rip-off. Might as well buy a shoebox. Those prices have a way to go still. Goes to show how families have changed. Only 2 bedrooms and 2 car garage.

It makes sense tho, you would need two incomes and only be able to afford 1 kid with those kinds of prices.

#73 Linda on 11.08.15 at 9:13 pm

#20 StayPrepared: commuting the DB pension might be a wise thing to do if 1) the rules allow for it; 2) you can manage your own money well enough to preserve capital while taking income. Here is the thing about pension in Canada – except for Ontario, there is no legislation in place to protect your pension. At a stroke of a legislative pen or petition to a court, ALL pensions of any kind can essentially be looted, reduced or wound up, including those much envied ‘gold plated’ government pensions. For grim examples, look south to the good old USA, where various state pension plans were unilaterally modified by state legislators passing laws to change the rules regarding for government employee pension plans. What happens in the States usually gets copied in Canada. In Alberta, the recent PC government had tabled two bills to change pension rules for both public AND private pension plans in the province. While those two bills died on the floor when then premier Prentice prorogued the legislature, there was absolutely no question that once the pesky election was over & the PC’s were re-elected that pension ‘reform’ was going to be implemented.

So IF you can take the money & run, I’d say do so. Financial advisors say ‘no’ & point out it is a ‘guaranteed’ monthly benefit. My thought is that if the rules can be changed then no guarantee exists. I also think that sooner or later someone is going to make political hay by doing just that.

That is only one reason to commute. I have outlined several others. — Garth

#74 Retirement crisis solved on 11.08.15 at 9:15 pm

Easy solution to the upcoming retirement crisis:

Institute national medicare premiums for seniors based on wealth (RE, Portfolio, cash holdings).

Suspend GIS for seniors while they are outside the country.

That should keep taxes low for the young. if they don’t, heaven forbid a massive brain drain occur.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/retirement/the-boomer-shift-how-canadas-economy-is-headed-for-majorchange/article27159892/

#75 John Santolin on 11.08.15 at 9:15 pm

I am 45 years old and have lost employment 3 times now. I mainly have part-time and contract work with multiple employers during the year.

So far this year I have earned $52,000 and have no debt, don’t use credit cards and never will, dumb, dumb to have them.

I have been accumulating money in RRSP’s, spousal RRSP’s, RESP’s, TFSA’s, GIC’s, term deposits, interest paying savings accounts, zero coupon bonds, disability and life insurance, annuity for 22 years now.

I don’t have any company, employer pensions and don’t want any because they are terrible financially when a spouse passes away.

My wife never had to get a job outside the home, we don’t own but rent a modest house and don’t own and need a car for 12 years now. We have 2 grown children in 1st and 2nd year in college with no debts.

We are on track with $750,000 in total financial investments not including our life insurance, annuity saving our maximum $26,000 a year in RRSP’s, spousal RRSP’s, TFSA’s and general savings.

This includes my $3,650 annual RRSP income tax refund reinvested in our TFSA’s.

Our current financial investments are accruing at $45,000 a year so about 75% of my current multiple employment income is replaced in mostly tax sheltered, tax free RRSP’s, RESP’s, TFSA’s.

As for protection for my spouse for retirement income, if needed, our life insurance policy can be converted to a guaranteed term certain income annuity at my age from 55 years to 65 years old that pays out $1,500 a month plus 3% annual indexing 15 years.

We don’t buy crap we don’t need and renting, saving, investing wisely for the last 8 years has allowed to us be more financially independent and financially flexible with moving and getting new jobs, work contracts.

Just like employers can layoff people, terminate work, and move away anytime, we just do the same when it comes to our finances, employment opportunities.

#76 Retirement crisis solved on 11.08.15 at 9:17 pm

For those with Government Defined benefit pensions:

Thats a million $ right there that others without won’t have!

#77 Smoking Man on 11.08.15 at 9:21 pm

There once was a poodle who thought he was a cowboy, but he lived in a cage the size of his thumb

And, though his white horse was a box of toothpicks, he galloped around until hit by a car

Sometimes I flap my arms like a hummingbird just to remind myself I’ll never fly

Sometimes I burn my arms with cigarettes just to pretend I won’t scream when I die

Sometimes I can’t wait to come down with cancer
At least then I’ll get to watch tv all day

And on my deathbed I’ll get all the answers even if all my questions are taken away.

If my life was as long as the moon’s, I’d still be jealous of the sun

If my life lasted only one day, I’d still be drunk by noon.

#78 David W on 11.08.15 at 9:27 pm

This world would be better off if employers cared about their workers. There use to be a time when a person could spend 35 yrs in the same job and provide for a family. Now everyone lives in fear of being laid off and the world economy is in the toilet cuz guess what, corporations don’t employe people!

#79 omg the original on 11.08.15 at 9:30 pm

Calgary’s Housing Market on 11.08.15 at 5:07 pm

Even the smallest increase in mortgage rates will have a significant negative impact on housing markets across Canada, including Calgary‘s, of course.
——————————

Of course Canada’s housing market is PROFOUNDLY BLOATED especially in our fav. bubbly cities.

But to say even the smallest increase in interest rates will have a significant impact on housing markets is to ignore history (and human nature).

Take a look at the other major bubble periods and you will understand that people can absorb small increase easily.

That is because as I have explained here numerous times – PEOPLE WILL DO ABSOLUTELY ANYTHING TO AVOID SELLING AT A LOSS – there plenty of areas that people will cut back on to keep the house.

So for example from 1979 to 1982 Vancouver housing prices almost doubled while mortgage rates climbed by 5-6%. The cost of owning in Vancouver went up significantly but prices skyrocketed.

Same for bubbly Toronto in the late 1980s where prices continued spiral-up while mortgage rates increase by 2%. People were easily able to absorb the interest cost increase.

The only thing that will correct this pig of a market quickly is a meaningful increase in rates, not 1-2% – but 3, 4 or 5%.

And that my friends, will not happen in the next year or two, but take several years to get to.

So just sit back keep renting and investing your savings.

#80 Panhead on 11.08.15 at 9:32 pm

I still remember a former boss telling us just before a round of layoffs that there was life after the railway. Turned out he was the only one to go. He showed us he was right …

#81 Leo Trollstoy on 11.08.15 at 9:43 pm

#59 Snowboid on 11.08.15 at 8:33 pm

That’s pretty sweet.

Oh, and here’s the plan for those outside of government: poverty.

And the penalty for ‘retiring before 55’? Even more poverty.

Government work sounds sweet.

#82 Patrick on 11.08.15 at 9:47 pm

#61 LoveThisBlog on 11.08.15 at 8:44 pm
#6 Turner Nation

Public sector jobs are safe and comfortable. Like locking yourself into a top-class room on the titanic. It feels safe and it is certainly comfortable but realistically it’s still going down.

I have friends working in the public sector. Approaching 30 with zero skills and laughing at me because they sit at a comp all day and watch movies. While I work in the private sector for less money.

If you’re under 30 and go public sector in this country you might as well buy real estate. You are buying in hook, line and sinker. The way Canada goes is the way you go. Zero control over your quality of life. Stay mobile, acquire skills, be willing move.

#83 Leo Trollstoy on 11.08.15 at 9:49 pm

#70 S.Bby on 11.08.15 at 9:04 pm

$100k with 8 weeks of vacation? Damn.

Government jobs are fantastic aren’t they? You qualify for a pension after only 20 years of work, slap it on to CPP and OAS and you’re living better than most retirees.

Btw how would I qualify for 8 weeks of vacation in the private sector?

#84 Smoking Man on 11.08.15 at 9:50 pm

Reading posts tonight,

Feeling intervention by a nectonight is wortthy.
So hammered my 50 or so dogs.

We all want to be loved..yet..we don’t know how to do it.

Especially, four year old Palestinian little boys and girls.

Can some one fix this shit out before aliens get pissed.

#85 commodity porn on 11.08.15 at 9:52 pm

“And while growth here will resume when commodity prices inevitably recover a little, that could take years. Between now and then, people like Leanne will go to work scared each day, or just go home.”

Garth, for the Canadian economy this is way more perverse than house porn.

I am surprised you never seem to care about how commodity porn screws over Canadian economy.

#86 Leo Trollstoy on 11.08.15 at 9:56 pm

What’s the pension for a retired government worker who worked from 25 years old to 55 years old (30 years of tenure)?

What is the present value of that kind of that 25 year ‘bond’ (assuming actuarial tables for a 25 year old today are semi-accurate) if discounted at the rate of inflation?

Oh yeah >$1m

Yeah I guess that’s pretty similar to what workers get in the private sector.

#87 Frank on 11.08.15 at 9:56 pm

51 Bridlecreek Gate, SW (# C4031567)

Not to mention that’s right on the edge of Calgary. It’s practically Okatokos

#88 Lillooet, BC on 11.08.15 at 9:57 pm

S.Bby on 11.08.15 at 9:04 pm
My sister in law got a gov job. She is a CA. for 85K a year and four weeks vacation to start. Pension and job security. There is a clerk there who makes 100,000K / yr with 8+ weeks vacation, pension, sick days, etc, what a life.

****************
How nearsighted you are!
A CA is happy with that government job???

#89 Nora Lenderby on 11.08.15 at 9:57 pm

#69 For those about to flop… on 11.08.15 at 9:02 pm
Cripes ,after reading Nagrajs poop maybe I gave Freedom First some crappy advice.
Maybe I don’t want people to reach deep down inside and write something original after all.

Oh do stop moaning and scroll, dear boy. Mr. N’s emissions are an ornament to the comments. Even though he has some continuity and veracity problems.

It hasn’t rained in Ottawa since the Lord our Saviour took up the mantle…sunny, sunny…

#90 chris on 11.08.15 at 10:02 pm

Garth – I don’t understand why you can’t just give good advice without all the doomer fear mongering, Canada dissing. Lots of good companies still doing fine, lots of people still doing fine. Sure, housing in some areas will likely go down, some people, especially in commodity related jobs will lose out, but lots of new opportunities in Canada every day. Lose the doomerism – it’s tiresome. Stick to what you know.

#91 Freedom First on 11.08.15 at 10:03 pm

#45 For those about to flop

Ftatf, there you are, lying again. There is information on my post today I have never written on this blog before.

You should work on your envy, jealousy, and anger. It’s all part of putting Freedom First and living happily. No charge.

#92 cd on 11.08.15 at 10:04 pm

if you are within a short drive to the US, say 30-45 mins, get an american job. The visa requirements are fairly easy: certifications, an offer letter, and a position that allowed under nafta (almost every professional job, not mail carrying or dog walking). Then as the dollar dives (and it will), your paycheque will climb.

#93 pinstripe on 11.08.15 at 10:04 pm

The least desirable job in the global economy is a government job. Governments are the worst employers and they deserve the meanest Union available. Many of the bureaucrats have no people skills whatsoever. The government policy makers are the root cause to all the dysfunctional behaviour within departments.

in this era, being an entrepreneur is an option but the harpo policy makers set policy to reward non performance and punish performance. There is no difference between Cash and Debt. Nothing is guaranteed. NOTHING.

#94 Smoking Man on 11.08.15 at 10:11 pm

I’ve made up my mind,

After 30 or so years, wife has not keeped up with my spirt, so frightened of judgement, after all my lessons.

Time for a replacement.. screw it…

Back page works.. The go away deal…

Ya

#95 economictsunami on 11.08.15 at 10:14 pm

Part of the problem from low rates for far too long and a tsunami of liquidity is that it tends to prop up and mask poorly run governments, companies and households.

That’s what got us into this mess and these policies are exactly what will keep us there.

Just ask Japan…

RPT-Watchdogs struggle to explain “optimism bias” in rosy GDP forecasts

“Economists have known for some time that recessions following banking collapses are longer and deeper than other recessions, and recoveries are slower and shallower.

But they still failed to predict the lasting impact of the 2007-2008 crisis on demand for goods and credit, on businesses’ ability and desire to borrow to invest, and on banks’ willingness to lend.

Despite trillions of dollars of central bank stimulus, interest rates slashed to zero and an early and heavy bout of classic government deficit spending immediately after the crash, demand, lending and investment have still to fully recover.

The policy response to the crisis continues to be unprecedented. Eight years after the first tremors were felt, major central banks still have interest rates at or near zero and are buying bonds. Global debt is far higher now, by some $57 trillion, according to McKinsey & Co, than it was in 2007. …”

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/05/global-economy-bias-idUSL8N12Z4S120151105#kkKwboBfcjolITK9.99

#96 pinstripe on 11.08.15 at 10:16 pm

#83 Trikkstoy

Btw how would I qualify for 8 weeks of vacation in the private sector?

————————————————————

be an entrepreneur. take as many weeks vacation you want. Include the cost of vacation in the price of the product or service provided. Same formula used for any other benefits. nowadays, there is no free lunch.

#97 Millmech on 11.08.15 at 10:22 pm

#86
That’s where I’ll be at that age,very doable,actually looking at going at fifty,but those last five years of additions to the nest egg plus the compounding makes it a tough choice.Thirty years of 30% income gets you there,will have double my current income after retirement before govt pension kicks in.

#98 Mark on 11.08.15 at 10:23 pm


Oh yeah >$1m

Easily. After all, for a theoretically fully secured government obligation, one needs to use a discount rate applicable to government debt. And currently, that is at extremely low rates. When you do that, the PV of such pension payments is extremely high. Far higher than they will offer a commutation at, that’s for sure.

Public sector compensation appears to be completely unsustainable. Government policy that purports to download compensation reductions and pension reductions onto the younger members of the public service are likely unsustainable as well. It does seem likely that some sort of crisis will be required to resolve the problem of excessive public sector compensation, as the Harper government basically allowed the problem to accelerate under their watch. Which, coming from their “Reform” roots of advocating for smaller government, really surprised me.

#99 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.08.15 at 10:25 pm

#84 Smoking Man on 11.08.15 at 9:50 pm
Reading posts tonight,

Feeling intervention by a nectonight is wortthy.
So hammered my 50 or so dogs.
We all want to be loved..yet..we don’t know how to do it.
Especially, four year old Palestinian little boys and girls.

Can some one fix this shit out before aliens get pissed.
————————————————-
I sure as hell hope you love all children equally Smoking Man. Children don’t know the word hate until they are taught it.
Aliens might just have been here already and left this worthless planet. We are full of evil.

#100 Snowboid on 11.08.15 at 10:29 pm

#70 S.Bby on 11.08.15 at 9:04 pm…

I smell something odorous leaking out of your honeywagon. CA making 85K to start is possible, but not likely.

But a clerk making $100K with 8 weeks vacation, total horse manure!

Here is the top level clerk salary with the BC Gov http://tinyurl.com/BC-Clerk

$ 100,000? Upper level management, Director level at least.

#101 LP on 11.08.15 at 10:29 pm

#63 live within your means on 11.08.15 at 8:45 pm
*******************
Welcome back…hope you’re feeling well!

#102 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.08.15 at 10:30 pm

Smoking Man you should retire down here in the Bahamas. It’s 81 degrees, I’m sitting on the back deck looking at the Atlantic Ocean, just saw two cruise ships go by lights all over like a Christmas tree. You would love it here, you could fly your children and grandchildren in for a week. Then send em home and drink rum runners all day. :)

#103 SWL1976 on 11.08.15 at 10:31 pm

Well I haven’t lost my gig, but I did start a free blog. I don’t have the time or stamina to write 6 times a week and thankfully don’t have to moderate hundreds of comments a day, but the personal thanks I get are rewarding and encouraging.

Big thanks to Garth and The Greater Fool for the inspiration in getting me started.

I consider Reality Next to be the – what’s really going on, that most don’t want to talk about – starter kit. Even my dear old boomer parents are coming around to the reality behind what once seemed to be my ridiculous ramblings.

I have nothing to prove, for the devil truly is in the details. Regardless, I would rather be proven wrong then right on most subjects discussed, but bringing attention to the subjects is the very least I can do.

I know I have put a target on my back from the machine, but if you don’t stand for something, you stand for nothing.

It’s never too late to turn things around

An awakening is happening

#104 wallflower on 11.08.15 at 10:32 pm

#49 SimplyPut7 on 11.08.15 at 7:54 pm

I think you should take your should somewhere else.

#105 Smoking Man on 11.08.15 at 10:36 pm

Too old to sing.

To young to think..

Machine wins eveytime.

#106 For those about to flop... on 11.08.15 at 10:36 pm

If I knew we were gonna end up with Destiny’s Child as our leader I would of at least put a caveat in that Beyoncé has to be included so at least there is something for the guys to gawk at!

#107 Freedom First on 11.08.15 at 10:37 pm

#90 chris

chris, you should stick with the msm. This Blog is where people come for the truth.

#108 Smoking Man on 11.08.15 at 10:40 pm

#102 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.08.15 at 10:30 pm
Smoking Man you should retire down here in the Bahamas. It’s 81 degrees, I’m sitting on the back deck looking at the Atlantic Ocean, just saw two cruise ships go by lights all over like a Christmas tree. You would love it here, you could fly your children and grandchildren in for a week. Then send em home and drink rum runners all day. :)

Why do that to em..

Let em feel real life….Let em be frightened.. let em find the door themselves.

Its what makes life worth living…

#109 Leo Trollstoy on 11.08.15 at 10:42 pm

After all, for a theoretically fully secured government obligation, one needs to use a discount rate applicable to government debt.

My bad. This is correct.

Government workers aren’t smart enough to understand how valuable their pensions are.

That’s why they say nonsensical things like, “it’s ONLY $20/30/40 thousand dollars a year” (in perpetuity)

Oh yeah, and there’s a “penalty” for retiring BEFORE age 55.

Cry me a river.

Pathetic.

#110 Freedom First on 11.08.15 at 10:43 pm

#93 pinstripe

no difference between cash and debt?

Another financial dickhead.

Look at the Canadian citizenry debt levels. And then realize that not one penny of it is mine.

pinstripe, sadly, you are not alone in thinking this way.

#111 Patrick on 11.08.15 at 10:44 pm

#81 Leo Trollstoy on 11.08.15 at 9:43 pm
#59 Snowboid on 11.08.15 at 8:33 pm

That’s pretty sweet.
Oh, and here’s the plan for those outside of government: poverty.
And the penalty for ‘retiring before 55’? Even more poverty.
Government work sounds sweet.
________________________________________

I’ll take my chances in the private sector. Government work numbs the brain. We’ve had a nice run as the preferred trading partner of the US. The northern state with free health care. TPP means that we no longer get to sit in that spot. I wonder what comes next.

#112 saskatoon on 11.08.15 at 10:47 pm

#71 Climate knuckle dragger

hmmm…wonder how many private jets will be flying into Paris Le Bourget for the “climate” conference?

how many of these “officials” will be protected by armed men?

guns and energy are for the elite.

THEY live.

YOU sleep.

#113 Patrick on 11.08.15 at 10:54 pm

#98 Mark on 11.08.15 at 10:23 pm

Public sector compensation appears to be completely unsustainable. Government policy that purports to download compensation reductions and pension reductions onto the younger members of the public service are likely unsustainable as well. It does seem likely that some sort of crisis will be required to resolve the problem of excessive public sector compensation
__________________________________________

Excessive public sector compensation isn’t the problem; it’s the solution to underfunded public sector pensions. Just jack up the pay for public sector employees and then crank up the required percent contributed to the the pensions.

Everyone wants to work for government. Government gets to pretend their DBs are sustainable. The big-wig public sector employees making the decisions today ensure their pensions are paid for. The ponzi scheme continues.

#114 Ronaldo on 11.08.15 at 11:04 pm

#32 common sense

”…just wish I was 60 instead of 54!”

Just wish I was 60 instead of 69.

Careful what you wish for. It will come soon enough.

#115 tommy magnum on 11.08.15 at 11:04 pm

It’s never a wrong time to think about being an entrepreneur, either. Nobody’s ever going to walk into your own bakery, office or garage and fire your ass.-Garth

Actually Garth starting a business later in life in the middle of one of the biggest impending crises in recent Canadian economic history may be incredibly risky and guarantee that the entrepreneur goes into the golden years penniless….

Anyway homeless in Hawaii is always an option, so go ahead and get those buns cooking at the bakery….maybe you can call it Magnum PI Bakery

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/homelessness-hawaii-grows_563f604ee4b0307f2cadc628?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000592

#116 rr on 11.08.15 at 11:05 pm

Garth I disagree with the advice about not getting a lawyer upon termination. There are many places that offer their services and take only the incremental gains (or a portion of it). Many companies have an automatic amount they will give if someone hires a lawyer, it’s really a set amount they are ready to offer to avoid going to court… It’s a rather simple process – and no i’m not a lawyer. Just had some friends who have gotten 20-30K more on their exit. (Although they did have to wait a few months)

#117 Snowboid on 11.08.15 at 11:07 pm

#81 Leo Trollstoy on 11.08.15 at 9:43 pm…

If I had stayed in the private sector I would have a net worth at least double what I ended up with.

But at the time I was enticed to a position where I was guaranteed job security, no transfers, and dozens of other promises. The option to raise our young sons in the same city, with the ‘stability’ of a public service position was too attractive to turn down.

Needless to say there was no job security. My salary was crap for the first ten years, such that I worked 20 hrs weekends with the private sector in the early 1980s. That was in addition to 50-60 hrs (no overtime) during the week. I had to change careers and level of government, but did manage to stay in the public service.

The pension is the only part that was mainly true, although deflated significantly from what was originally promised.

I know you are saying ‘boo-hoo’ and you have every right to be upset when you read some of the media reports, but you don’t have any knowledge of what I and many of my co-workers went through.

Also right that I could have taken a $ 100K plus consulting job when I retired, but was honestly burnt out. A few of my friends took those positions but didn’t make it to 60, and if there was no spouse the pension goes poof! If the spouse dies the same, poof.

I’m sorry you feel poverty is the only option for private sector workers, but I don’t believe that is our fault.

/Rantoff

#118 Cici on 11.08.15 at 11:08 pm

“They finger people with bad attitudes, excessive wage demands, poor work habits or who back sick days into every long weekend.”

Not at my job…they favour unqualified, misogynist creeps who do all of those things, and who get their wives to do their work for them so that they can sit back playing video games all day…

#119 april on 11.08.15 at 11:13 pm

#90 – Garth is not a doomer, he tells it like it is whether people like or not. For your information, corporations are leaving Canada in droves to amalgumate and merge with conpanies in other countries–70 B has left Canada – not good for Canadian economy – not good for the C$.

#120 Drunken Nutz on 11.08.15 at 11:15 pm

#94 Smoking Man on 11.08.15 at 10:11 pm

I’ve made up my mind,

After 30 or so years, wife has not keeped up with my spirt, so frightened of judgement, after all my lessons.

Time for a replacement.. screw it…

Back page works.. The go away deal…

Ya
———————————–
I had nothing to say on Christmas Day
When you threw all your clothes in the snow
When you burnt your hair, knocked over chairs
I just tried to stay out of your way

But when you fell asleep
With blood on your teeth
I got in my car and drove away

Listen to me, Butterfly, there’s only so much wine
You can drink in one life
But it will never be enough
To save you from the bottom of your glass

#121 Snowboid on 11.08.15 at 11:17 pm

#83 Leo Trollstoy on 11.08.15 at 9:49 pm…

“…Btw how would I qualify for 8 weeks of vacation in the private sector…”

Basically the same way you wouldn’t qualify for one in the public sector.

#109 Leo Trollstoy on 11.08.15 at 10:42 pm…

Wrong again, the pension only lasts as long as you live, or your spouse after you croak. That’s why one never includes the ‘perpetual’ payment as part of your net worth.

Your misplaced hatred of government workers is pathetic.

#122 Leo Trollstoy on 11.08.15 at 11:26 pm

#112 Patrick on 11.08.15 at 10:54 pm

I can hear the howls from government workers now:

“Waaaaaah the government is forcing me to SAVE even MORE $ so I don’t get to leech as much from public coffers when I retire.

“The horror! I had to work for 25 years! Until age 60! Before I could retire! And I only get $30,000 inflation-adjusted per year, in perpetuity! …and CPP… and OAS…”

Man just writing this out really makes government jobs sound really terrible

It’s like forcing your child to save some of their allowance every month and they come back after a few years to complain that they have a bundle of cash burning a hole in their pocket that seems to magically increase at the rate of inflation.

You just gotta tell your child, “Sorry your life sucks kid.”

#123 lee on 11.08.15 at 11:28 pm

Suing your employer is rough. Remember, once you sue, your employer can pretty much bad mouth you in court documents with relative impunity. This can really derail your career and unfortunately the courts do very little to mitigate the damage. If you do the math, after taxes you’re really only suing for a few thousand or so. The system does work very well for non unionized employees who have to resort to the courts. The courts will never order your employer to give you your job back unless your unionized. The best advice is usually to take what the employer offers, maybe ask for abit more but then run. The second you sue, you’ll get back a defence that accuses you of incompetence or worse and anyone can get their hands on the document.

#124 not 1st on 11.08.15 at 11:29 pm

Garth, you are essentially advising mouldy lifelong cubicle dwellers to own stocks and become entrepreneurs. Do you actually know any of these people? They are in the cubicles for a good reason.

#125 For those about to flop... on 11.08.15 at 11:30 pm

Snora Lenderby , I…..didn’t………think………of ………scrolling ……..zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

#126 Minister of Carbon Taxation on 11.08.15 at 11:31 pm

Please please please give us a carbon tax oh glorious minister of climate change… then can we have a shiny new pipeline?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/keystone-rejection-prompts-calls-for-canadian-carbon-tax/article27170244/

#127 Ronaldo on 11.08.15 at 11:31 pm

#71 Climate Knuckle Dragger

”No concern for climate knuckle draggers for sure. Our only hope is our decomposing carcasses spew a lot methane. Of course then they’ll institute a methane death tax. Gold stickers for Justina and his mistress of climate taxation.”

I expect we will see a ‘cremation tax’ as well soon enough.

#128 Bottoms_Up on 11.08.15 at 11:33 pm

OMG huge fail on the national tonight. Why would anyone argue against men getting together to discuss issues that affect them?

Thank God we’ve got Garth’s blog lol

#129 joe on 11.08.15 at 11:41 pm

After watching this sad doggie pic,this video should cheer u up.
http://instagram.com/p/92Nr5yqxhx/
I love today’s blog .could u also talk about positive money making opportunities during slump/crash like debt consolidators /short sale advisors, russel Oliver type pawnshop owners. any stock inevestment how can I short Canadian banks?

#130 LoveThisBlog on 11.08.15 at 11:42 pm

I am getting a kick out of all these knowledgeable posters saying Gov workers put in 20 years and then retire.

Can someone provide a link showing this?

Because where I work at a government utility “it just ain’t so”. I have 20 years with the gov, and 8 in private sector. 28 years working so far and at least another 7 to go, if I am lucky . So that will be 35 years , and frugal living to have a modest pension. I guess I am with the wrong branch of gov…… Or there are a lot of people here just full of shit

#131 Doug in London on 11.08.15 at 11:46 pm

So, where’s this labour shortage the “experts” have been predicting for at least the last 10 years?

#132 Brew on 11.08.15 at 11:49 pm

@109 Leo Trollstoy

“Government workers aren’t smart enough to understand how valuable their pensions are.”

What an asinine comment you made there.

In fact laughable.

#133 true north on 11.08.15 at 11:51 pm

Thank you Garth for quoting me in today’s post.
True north mortgages hiked their fixed between 0.1 & 0.15 and their variable from 0.2 to 0.25 depending on term…
True North is probably the company with the most newest opened offices in Vancouver… in last years

#134 LoveThisBlog on 11.08.15 at 11:52 pm

#82 Patrick
“Public sector jobs are safe and comfortable. Like locking yourself into a top-class room on the titanic. It feels safe and it is certainly comfortable but realistically it’s still going down.

I have friends working in the public sector. Approaching 30 with zero skills and laughing at me because they sit at a comp all day and watch movies. While I work in the private sector for less money.

If you’re under 30 and go public sector in this country you might as well buy real estate. You are buying in hook, line and sinker. The way Canada goes is the way you go. Zero control over your quality of life. Stay mobile, acquire skills, be willing move.”

Not all Gov jobs are like this. I work, I have skills, and am courted by private firms. Some gov jobs are slack, some are not.

There is Fed Gov, Municipal Gov, Provincial Gov………..yet some here say “Gov Job” as if they are all the same. Unreal.

#117 Snowboid, well-said.

#135 Trojan House on 11.08.15 at 11:53 pm

#53 Nora Lenderby

“It would, however, reduce your output of carbon dioxide, and, I hesitate to say, methane.”

Are you trying to say he farts too much?

#136 true north on 11.08.15 at 11:54 pm

Variable at true north went up between 0.20 and 0.25 I think my previous post was not clear.
All the realtors crawling this site can verify tomorrow, btw the gas station are self serve these days so you guys won’t find jobs there in the nearest future

#137 fishman on 11.09.15 at 12:16 am

There’s two types of people in a democracy; those that vote & those that don’t. Two types in our capitalist system; those that pay the govt. & those that get paid by the govt. Those that pay the govt. & vote should be making the best money, have the most freedom & the handsomest women. In a healthy society they are #1 in status & make the strategic decisions. #2 on the ladder receives govmnt. money& votes. Their input is tactical. The other two types that don’t vote can fight it out for irrelevancy.

If your in group #1 but don’t seem to have the rewards that are rightfully yours; you can at least act in a superior manner without being considered a dick.A naturally, easy, funny, superior manner that is. You’ll soon have a good looking woman if nothing else.

#138 Selfies for Civil Servants on 11.09.15 at 12:17 am

A bunch of civil servants nearly as orgasmic as peter mansbridge. justina, justina oh please tax us some more

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/civil-servants-give-trudeau-rock-star-reception-1.2646940

#139 Ronaldo on 11.09.15 at 12:24 am

#103 SWL1976 on 11.08.15 at 10:31 pm

Congrats on your blog. In total agreement.

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/08/26/carbon-credit-fraud-no-laughing-matter

#140 Lowell Smythe on 11.09.15 at 12:25 am

How would the Liberals deploy a carbon tax? Just add 1-2% on to Income Taxes and Sales taxes and that money goes to support Green Initiatives or would it just be a tax assessment on Oil companies, or a tax on motorists or a tax at the gas pumps? What kind of ideas are the Liberals looking at to defeat climate change?

#141 Washed Up Lawyer on 11.09.15 at 12:28 am

Could we just, for a couple of weeks. forget about the Climax Change conference in Paris.

The Canadian Finals Rodeo starts November 11 in Edmonton.

Open the chute and let her rip, boys. This one’s for Mama.

#142 saskatoon on 11.09.15 at 12:40 am

#134 LoveThisBlog

“There is Fed Gov, Municipal Gov, Provincial Gov………..yet some here say “Gov Job” as if they are all the same. Unreal.”

they ARE all the same, in the sense that those who have these jobs are getting paid with funds taken through governmental initiation of force.

in other words, cowardly thieves are at the doorstep.

#143 Andres on 11.09.15 at 12:41 am

“Fourth, if you’re axed, be smart and calculating. Hiring a pricey lawyer because you dislike your package is almost always a loser move. The lawyer loves it, the company ignores you and you burn through precious capital while feeding your anger. Move on. ”

This is going to sound self-interested on account of me being an employment lawyer, but this is not good advice. People who are laid off should pay for an initial consultation with a lawyer who practices exclusively in employment law and has positive word of mouth or good online references. Even if you don’t want to litigate, it is a rare case indeed where a single letter doesn’t improve the severance package in some way, and only the worst and most senseless companies ignore you if they’ve made a bad offer. Also, without cause wrongful dismissals are fairly cheap pieces of litigation as long as you are dealing with the right counsel who understands how these things are supposed to work (in other words, find someone who doesn’t need to spend much time on legal research and who has cabinets of ready made templates). Just my obviously self-interested two cents.

#144 45north on 11.09.15 at 12:46 am

Overlord: great link!

from your link: A self-employed friend of mine told me, ‘You’ve got great credentials but you’re not hirable. You’re ineffective because you’re burnt out,’

and he’s burnt out because of financial stress.

Nemesis: your link to Up in the Air was brilliant

tom: we had to be able to pay the bills on ei…we’re old now and we watch the train wreck coming and wonder what the cost will be

this song’s for you:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_03-pUBeHaM

#145 kommykim on 11.09.15 at 12:47 am

RE:

#130 LoveThisBlog on 11.08.15 at 11:42 pm
Or there are a lot of people here just full of shit

There are plenty of those. Even some who name themselves after bovine excrement.

#146 Panhead on 11.09.15 at 1:03 am

#123 lee on 11.08.15 at 11:28 pm
The system does work very well for non unionized employees who have to resort to the courts. The courts will never order your employer to give you your job back unless your unionized
————————————————————-
From my observation while working in a unionised shop … if an arbitration court ordered a company to give a grieved employee his job back (sometimes made in full) he won the lottery. Our employer would announce that they had then lost confidence in the employee and settled for an undisclosed amount of cash. The employees never came back of their own free will. Of course they went laughing all the way to the bank. What a system …

#147 For those about to flop... on 11.09.15 at 1:04 am

I think some people got confused at election time and thought they were voting for the other Justin T.
Justin Timberlake … He’s bringing sexy back,yeah!
Justin Trudeau ….He’s bringing taxes back,yeah!

#148 Spaccone on 11.09.15 at 1:07 am

Nothing moves in a predictable way, especially oil which could rebound somewhat for a couple years, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it slid down 25-30% (if not more) lower from here after a rebound to work off what was the fantasy of $65+ oil (remember peak production?).

#149 Canada is Collapsing on 11.09.15 at 1:10 am

The last time I read a commentary describing the embattled worker ‘head down and ready to bug out of society’ was in late 1980 and into 1984 when 2000 people were showing up for a single waiters job in Vancouver…..mostly to be humiliated.

Desperate unemployed people were leaping over the desks of UIC ‘officials’ demanding “I want your job A-Hole”…after being bullied by the snarky civil servant on the fat salary and guaranteed employment drill. Is this the recession of the 1980’s starting again….cause ‘f**k man…that was ugly.

“It’s never a wrong time to think about being an entrepreneur, either. Nobody’s ever going to walk into your own bakery, office or garage and fire your ass.”

Not true…..in a recession so many people that start small businesses end up giving their capital an acid bath…’cause ain’t nobody spending money….. and stupid people from ‘administrative positions’ have signed a 5 year lease with the home equity as collateral……disaster and wipe out time….welfare, divorce and street life quickly follow.

Check out any SBUX today….half the people there are trying to sell ‘consultant services’ to the unemployed ‘consultant at the next table.

Trudy and the Turds have bent over for Obama’s legacy and more thousands of jobs will be flushed. It looks like the coward Obama found someone weak enough to blink in our Trudy. He would have never dared to do to Canada what he’s done to Canada under Trudy and the Turds. The ‘climate change rhetoric’ has gone insane with Obama blaming the war in Syria and the refugee crisis on climate change….well people are going to pay for being as stupid as they’ve been by voting for the pandering of Trudy, Wynne and Notley.

The only people who’ll be tickled pink to be in Canada are the civil servants whose unions have all got big raises and loans. Mansbridge is beside himself at the prospect of being the next CBC bobble head to become a Governor General with a 40 million dollar p/a budget.

Only the strong and the debt free will survive this downturn…..and as I look at the calendar….it’s time for me to go to Thailand and leave this miserable protest voting bunch of malcontents to their misery. Ciao Bella.

#150 Kenchie on 11.09.15 at 1:14 am

#41 Gray Man on 11.08.15 at 7:01 pm
“So who does one believe Garth ?
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/11/06/another-phony-payroll-jobs-number-paul-craig-roberts/

I don’t care. — Garth”

Paul Craig Roberts is an old loser who makes his living writing drivel for his subscriber base that craves doomer opinions. Even if there are morsels of truth in his numbers, he presents them in half-true ways to make them sound worse than they really are.

Let me guess, you’re >50 years old and have too much money so you subscribe to him to give you “insight” into the global economy?

#151 nonplused on 11.09.15 at 1:54 am

Great advice Garth, except for the “shop at Costco” bit. I can’t get out of that store without overspending on things I won’t use before they expire. They have the best prices on some things but you have to take some time and find out what they are and whether you really will use them.

For instance I was looking for a natural gas BBQ this year. I got more features at a lower price by switching the name brand to “Broil King” and buying it at a specialty store than what Costco had on offer. Costco had all units with no side burner or roaster or neither, but were more money.

However Costco is where you buy dog food, meat, and milk. And smokes if that is your thing. And clothes if they have something you can use.

#152 Former Fool on 11.09.15 at 2:05 am

#39 Calgary’s Housing Market on 11.08.15 at 6:49 pm

Here’s another data point for you…

http://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/16063917/3-1613-4-ST-NW-Rosedale-Calgary-Alberta-T2T2Z1-Rosedale

I live inner city and have been watching this place. Not that I plan to buy it. Original asking price was $449k. Been watching it on MLS. Down to 425k, eventually to 400k, then to 388k which is where it is today. Of course, if it sells for 380k, CREB would record it as being sold for 97.9% of asking, rather than 84.6% of the original ask, which CREB then pitches as part of a stable market in Calgary. *Facepalm*

Where’s the “Alberta is Finished” guy who used to post here? He was warning about Alberta all along and was correct. Alberta is indeed finished for the next decade. Glad I’m not long on R/E anymore here.

Scary post today Garth…

#153 Great Canadian Bubble Co. on 11.09.15 at 2:06 am

First story I see as I turn on my computer this morning

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/why-layoffs-hurt-both-companies-201400143.html

You are in sync with the MSM now Garth. Shiver …

#154 Vampire studies GMST 454 on 11.09.15 at 2:20 am

121 Snowboid “That’s why one never includes the
‘perpetual’ payment as part of your net worth.”

Sounds like the cash required to purchase a comparable annuity would what it’s worth.

#155 Leo Trollstoy on 11.09.15 at 2:35 am

#130 LoveThisBlog on 11.08.15 at 11:42 pm

I am getting a kick out of all these knowledgeable posters saying Gov workers put in 20 years and then retire.

Can someone provide a link showing this?

How many years would you say someone worked if they started with the government at age 35 until age 55?

Government workers need a link for that?

Seriously?

#156 Corban on 11.09.15 at 3:29 am

Great link TurnerNation! I’ve owned a couple of those in my time (one black, one blue). Job prospects don’t look good at the moment. Might be time to take advantage of the nonimmigrant NAFTA Professional (TN) visa.

#157 Freedom First on 11.09.15 at 3:47 am

#118 Cici

Thanks for sharing Cici!
It’s not often I hear stories about happily married men.

#158 BC Guy on 11.09.15 at 4:06 am

Jim Balsillie:

“Trans Pacific Partnership, worst thing that Harper has done for Canada …

… Trans-Pacific Partnership could cost Canada hundreds of billions of dollars — and eventually make signing it the worst public policy decision in the country’s history.”

http://globalnews.ca/news/2326744/tpp-deal-worst-thing-that-harper-government-has-done-for-canada-balsillie/

#159 unemployed crisis actor on 11.09.15 at 6:06 am

layoffs at CTV? Hopefully that is an industry trend. I guess people are tired of being lied to

“Sully” US Airways Flight 1549 Crash Hoax
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HiB7CP4eyTU

#160 Ken Lovegrove on 11.09.15 at 6:21 am

Hi Garth.

Any thoughts on the TPP agreement Harper recently signed

I mention it because interesting article in http://www.RT.com quoting the Canadian founder of BlackBerry saying it was a lousy deal for Canadians.

#161 BobC on 11.09.15 at 6:48 am

#140 Lowell

Does it make any difference? The corporations will pass it on through higher selling prices.
The hard working guy trying to do what’s right always picks up the tab.
Why is it only a tax on everybody will save the world. Why not set standards and punish only the guilty? The whole thing is a scam.

#162 Harry Wilson on 11.09.15 at 7:14 am

Thanks for addressing this topic, Mr. Turner; it’s sad that it’s so relevant these days.

One thing that was not mentioned was RRSP considerations. If you are receiving a decent-sized severance package, this might be the time to check your last-year’s assessment notice, see how much contribution room you have, and stuff the bejeebers out of your RRSP.

The later in the year you get punted, the truer this would be. When I got the bum’s rush, it was December (Merry Christmas!), so in that tax year I had a full year’s salary as well as slightly more than a year’s salary in severance pay. If I didn’t put most of it into my RRSP, I would have taken a huge hit from the CRA.

If you get the boot earlier in the year, your taxable income for the year may not be as high, so it wouldn’t be such a large issue, but you have until the end of the year to do the math and make your contribution decision.

When you don’t know what the future holds, it’s important to get your taxable income as low as possible. $11K would be ideal.

——————————————

Remember too that a decent severance package will delay the start of your EI payments. In my case, they began in October, ten months after the end of my employment, so I only had a few thousand dollars in taxable income that year. This was the first time that I withdrew from the RRSP, just enough that I stayed completely under the taxman’s radar (yeah, yeah; taxperson; sorry).

I hate to add to the pessimism, but there’s a chance that the EI will run out before your next paycheque shows up. The older you are, the truer this is; sucks, but it’s a fact of life. Should that happen, you can take some small comfort, as I currently am, in withdrawing $10K chunks from your RRSP while still staying below the CRA’s radar.

The Reader’s Digest version: I’m very glad I stuffed my RRSP when I lost my job.

——————————————

Disclaimer #1:
I have a habit of being wrong on things like this. (Every time I post a comment on money issues, I assume that I’m going to wind up with Harley tracks across my butt.)

Disclaimer #2:
I should have been in bed four hours ago.

#163 Greg on 11.09.15 at 7:44 am

re: Rejection for good reason!

TPP ‘worst thing Harper did for Canada’ & will cost hundreds of billions – ex-Blackberry tycoon
https://www.rt.com/news/321254-canada-tpp-losses-innovation/

IMO, Trade is good. We trade now and will keep doing so, with or with out the TPP.

But the TPP should be Rejected in total. If you love your children.
It’s just a bad deal for Canadians.
For the from PM Mr. Harper who knows what it may do for him??

#164 WallOfWorry on 11.09.15 at 7:49 am

Garth…any comments on the job report where 145,000 of the jobs is based upon the birth/death model? Additionally, the job creation continues to show the growth is in service industry, and with a disproportionate being part-time? Of interest is the high percentage in the 55 and over category?

I am still willing to bet you that interest rate increases will be one and done rather than the slow and steady increase that you propose. The fact remains that the US has had 10 years of sub 3% growth while their gov’t debt increased from $5T to $19 T so the US simply can’t afford to raise rates.

#165 George S on 11.09.15 at 8:12 am

#88 Lilooet BC wrote “How nearsighted you are!
A CA is happy with that government job???

One of the reasons that the CA is happy with that government job even though it pays less money is that the job includes benefits (that she pays for) and there are opportunities for advancement. That is why people like government jobs even though in a lot of cases they get paid less. They hire women and men equally, pay them the same for equal work, they hire minorities with no discrimination, disabled people, older people etc. and treat them decently. You are forced to pay into a pension plan that will provide you with a decent retirement, and that plan is more or less guaranteed to be there when you retire. All things that decent employers provide for their employees.
The race to the bottom in employee benefits is going to really screw up the Canadian workplace. Why should you care about your employer if they don’t care about you or value you?

#166 The Other Chris on 11.09.15 at 8:36 am

My experience is that it’s hard to get hired into government — competition is extremely fierce, maybe because everyone wants to get in. (If you have veteran status or employment equity status it’s probably a lot easier.) I’ve been applying to various provincial and federal jobs over the last two years and have gotten through to the panel stage twice, but no offers yet.

I’m not exactly proud of trying to get into government, but when you’re middle aged, what is the alternative? I’ve thought of doing a two year Masters in a tech field and heading to the US, but then I read stories about middle aged workers having trouble getting hired into tech and then it seems quite risky.

#167 whosethefool on 11.09.15 at 8:49 am

#149 Kenchie…what do you base that on? easy to take shots…but how would you back it up? I suspect you won’t be responding but would be interested in understanding why you would describe a break down of the job stats as drivel? At a minimum it provides insight for evaluation and it certainly offers some balance to the herd mentality we get on this site…or are you just part of the herd?

#168 pbrasseur on 11.09.15 at 10:02 am

Being laid off is a painful experience on many levels, even if you’re highly employable and have financial resources. So imagine when you have neither…

IMO keeping oneself employable and saving for a rainy day are individual responsibilities and should be priorities, just do it as best you can, don’t wait for the axe to fall.

#169 Broke Dick on 11.09.15 at 10:19 am

If you’re over 50, face the fact this might be the last time you have a career gig. So do a financial assessment and determine if you actually need to work again – GT

http://financialmentor.com/calculator/best-retirement-calculator

#170 -=jwk=- on 11.09.15 at 10:21 am

@#70
My sister in law got a gov job. She is a CA. for 85K a year and four weeks vacation to start. Pension and job security. There is a clerk there who makes 100,000K / yr with 8+ weeks vacation, pension, sick days, etc, what a life.

———–

Your sister has a B.Comm (4 years) + 2 years of CA training, an 8 hour exam that 50% of takers fail, plus 2 years of hell-on-earth internship. That’s 8 years of instant noodles. She worked her ass off to be where she is today. As a CA in private sector she would be at 100k within 5 years.

Here’s a tip to all you whining about high salaries:get an education!

#171 young & foolish on 11.09.15 at 10:27 am

It seems that demographics will soon play a big role in our economy … many set to retire and begin looking for support. Where will the money come from?

#172 DUI on money road on 11.09.15 at 10:40 am

#163 George S
=====
I generally agree, except is the gender inequality being addressed?

https://www.tbs-sct.gc.ca/res/stats/images/demo12-02-eng.html

#173 young & foolish on 11.09.15 at 10:44 am

“So, where’s this labour shortage the “experts” have been predicting for at least the last 10 years?”

Hehe … they never saw the expansion of the foreign worker program, or now the TPP.

#174 Broke Dick on 11.09.15 at 10:50 am

#120 Drunken Nutz on 11.08.15 at 11:15 pm

-Welcome back dude.

#175 Axehead on 11.09.15 at 10:50 am

What? No bemoaning Kia’s in the recommendations?

Make sure you own a reliable, well maintained, solid car. Dump the luxury now.

#176 young & foolish on 11.09.15 at 11:00 am

this whole private vs. public meme is tiresome ….

#177 young & foolish on 11.09.15 at 11:06 am

“Can anyone give advice as to how they are diversifying in this environment of QE markets vs natural supply and demand markets?”

Haha … broad market index funds … and dividend paying staples should do … but as for finding true value in “natural supply & demand” …. forget it.

#178 Nora Lenderby on 11.09.15 at 11:08 am

#137 fishman on 11.09.15 at 12:16 am
…you can at least act in a superior manner without being considered a dick.A naturally, easy, funny, superior manner that is. You’ll soon have a good looking woman if nothing else.

A finely crafted lure, Mr. fishman. You most obviously understand what fish want, now you need a club to bash them before they come to their senses :-)

#179 eddy on 11.09.15 at 11:08 am

re free trade, this guy says that the idea to move us from a producer economy to a consumer economy came from the Rand Corporation-

Sex, Consumerism & Philosophy of the Apocalypse with Jay Dyer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QApKfPgsZ4s

#180 young & foolish on 11.09.15 at 11:20 am

“I noticed a big shift in the early 2000s — employers moved from hiring the most qualified, bright, and ambitious people possible, even to the point of hiring overqualified people. To hiring the least qualified people who could possibly get the job done at probably the lowest cost of overall employment.”

It’ s all about showing profits for the next quarter. Jobs are now being sent abroad, and there are qualified people all over the world. Trade deals are emerging to protect capital (TPP), not to maintain your middle class lifestyle. It’s not your daddy’s economy any more.

#181 Kenchie on 11.09.15 at 11:37 am

Geez, the quality of comments appears to be get worse and worse, Garth. Maybe you should retire from your free blog just to spare the internet a place for these losers to vent about “government jobs”.

#182 Broke Dick on 11.09.15 at 12:03 pm

#21 Freedom First on 11.08.15 at 5:04 pm
Through unfortunate circumstances I was on my own at 17. 0 inheritance or help of any kind in my life. 0 social assistance. I worked, went to school, then worked and went to night school for Business. Upgraded my education throughout my life. Cleaned toilets, shoveled $hit at the racetrack

===============================

Hey Femdom First.
Imagine that. 30 plus years later and you’re still shoveling the $hit, but now on Garth’s blog.

#183 Don Derc on 11.09.15 at 12:09 pm

“But after the first episode I made sure I was ready for the next one. Minimal debt, max liquidity and lots of self-employment. ”

Great advice. It was my mentality too, after my first layoff in 1991, and unemployed for 14 months. At that time , I rented out my house and moved back in with my folks – not an option many can exercise. I’m now unemployed again, in my 12 month – no mortgage, a ton of cash in the bank, and weighing my options. I sleep well at night, and feel confident maneuvering my way through the next 2 years of economic hell.

Born in the ’60’s, I feel I have an advantage because I was close to the WW2 generation – I found boxes of tinfoil and sugar in my grandma’s basement and figured it out.

One of my many “life mottos” is prepare for the worst expect the best.

Always prepare for the worst. It means you’ll wind up having an extra 5 bucks in your pocket, at the end of the night, so you can buy that coveted smokie from the cart out side the Palimino club at 2am. A pleasant reward indeed.

Money and wealth is a simple concept anyone can follow, but we sure get distracted with JLo, Bennifer, and that Odom guy in the Las Vegas brothel. (10 Viagra pills…really?).

Question – who taught you about money anyways?

Respect, and responsibility is what money craves from you. Show it.

#184 young & foolish on 11.09.15 at 12:10 pm

Jobs? contract work, no benefits …
Equity markets? going nowhere fast ….
bonds? hehe

but you need cash flow brother ….

Ever heard of dividends, interest, capital gains or return of capital? — Garth

#185 senta on 11.09.15 at 12:22 pm

You must be a lawyer. — Garth

Nope – just a non-lawyer mean cranky s.o.b.. late 50’s, got fired a few months ago. Took the spring and summer off. Now self employed.
Hired a smart lawyer and now negotiating with former Co. Co has already offered low 6 figure settlement, have asked for 7. Willing to settle for high 6. Wish me luck!

#186 Chris on 11.09.15 at 12:27 pm

Freedom First # 107 – Garth gives some good advice, unfortunately just like MSM tends to write toward the dramatic side. He tells the truth?? Sometimes, but too often he tries to predict and does very poorly – how many times has he predicted an interest rate hike, with 100% certainty? For how many years has he predicted housing is about to crash next week? Yes, both of these will happen, and someday the Toronto Maple Leafs will win the stanley cup, you heard it here. But that kind of prediction is useless – who will win the cup this year would be useful, but nobody knows, just like interest rates and housing crashes – lots of people guess, some are eventually right, way more are wrong, Garth included.

April # 119 – Garth is a doomer, or at least writes like one. Here are the real numbers from Stats Can – look em up youself. “Released: 2015-11-06

After four months of little change, employment increased by 44,000 (+0.2%) in October, bringing the number of people employed in Canada to over 18 million for the first time. The unemployment rate declined by 0.1 percentage points to 7.0%. Compared with 12 months earlier, employment was up 143,000 (+0.8%), with all of the gains in full-time work. During the same period, the total number of hours worked grew by 0.7%.”

Canada has many good companies to invest in. Sure, own some US and global equities, have some safe stuff and some growth/dividend stuff, have some real estate – that is all good GT advice. But posts like “Betty Sue lost her job and so will all of you because Canada is about to implode” is tiresome. That’s all.

#187 StandardDeviation on 11.09.15 at 12:48 pm

A rather visceral post today Sir Garth; and we are certainly living the reality in Alberta. Consensus amongst colleagues and peers in this part of the world anticipate 30% unemployment by 2nd Quarter next year, if our institutions deem to tell the truth.
The logic of political actions seem almost antagonistic to good management of the economy, if the promises and strategic direction of our newly minted utilitarian governments, both federally and provincially have their way.
Although, if history is anything to go by Then Prime Minister Trudeau’s pedigree adopted the same approach for Alberta and the west a generation back. So, here we are at “Reasons to be Cheerful; Part 2”?
You simply have to expect the worst and anticipate the Best going forward; remembering that “An Optimist is simply an inexperienced pessimist”.
Nice to see open, frank and politically incorrect views now and then, it makes you feel you really are in a democracy.

#188 Chris in Nanaimo on 11.09.15 at 12:54 pm

#157 Freedom First

I’m a happily married man, but only because I discovered the red pill truth about relationships 3 years ago and made some major changes. Only wish i’d had that knowledge 20 years ago. Damn..

I consider this blog the red pill truth of personal financial knowledge.

#189 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.09.15 at 12:59 pm

Hi All,

I work for the “government’ and I’m here to help. Let’s just say all of the above anecdotes of gov’t employee compensation levels are extremely overstated.

Source: 28 years of experience at all levels.

You’re welcome.

#190 ARP on 11.09.15 at 1:24 pm

Always have a plan B.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/ccpa-housing-correction-1.3310401

#191 fixie guy on 11.09.15 at 1:35 pm

” And Canadians just elected a majority government promising to tax the rich and overspend – because we’re fearful.”

Because the Conservative decade of prioritizing flipping houses and pumping oil over all else had absolutely no relevance to Canada’s current situation. It is to laugh.

#192 bdy sktrn on 11.09.15 at 1:36 pm

Ms Y will back off the rate hike if the market swoons over the next 30 days.

look for 1500 to be shaved off the dow by santa day.

also:
climate destruction tax anyone? is a little bit warmer really so bad?
american gasoline is a wonderful thing.

#193 bdy sktrn on 11.09.15 at 1:37 pm

“U.S. equities traded sharply lower Monday as investors weighed a possible Federal Reserve rate hike in December.”
———————
wasn’t this already priced in?

#194 S.Bby on 11.09.15 at 1:41 pm

#88 Lillooet, BC

How nearsighted you are!
A CA is happy with that government job???
****************

She is happy to not live in Lillooet.

#195 Tudor on 11.09.15 at 1:45 pm

All those are good points. The only thing I would add is taking the time to take care of any dental, eyeglasses & other non-government covered health care needs for yourself and your dependants.

It’s pretty expensive doing dental work when you’re on EI.

#196 Snowboid on 11.09.15 at 1:46 pm

#155 Leo Trollstoy on 11.09.15 at 2:35 am…

Nothing stopping anyone from working in the public service from age 35 to 55, you are correct.

Say the pension was based on a $60K annual salary. In BC they would receive $ 19,464 a year in pension from 55-65. Then at 65 it would be reduced to $ 13.3K annually.

That’s right – all the pensions are reduced at age 65 to compensate for CPP and OAS.

More like an iron pyrite rather than gold pension, I must say.

#197 S.Bby on 11.09.15 at 1:47 pm

#100 Snowboid
I’m just going by what SIL told me because that $100K accounting clerk reports to my SIL and has worked there for over 25 years. SIL manages several staff with this clerk being one. It is a pseudo government “company” that has a lock on that particular industry (can you guess what it is?)

BTW: I don’t believe your car goes zero to 60 in 5.1 seconds with a 3.8 litre engine. What is it?

#198 S.Bby on 11.09.15 at 2:04 pm

#169 JWK

Your sister has a B.Comm (4 years) + 2 years of CA training, an 8 hour exam that 50% of takers fail, plus 2 years of hell-on-earth internship. That’s 8 years of instant noodles. She worked her ass off to be where she is today. As a CA in private sector she would be at 100k within 5 years.
——————————————————-
You are correct about most all of that, but not the noodles part. She made good money while working, training, etc.
I also would not expect her to stay at her starting wage for too long.

#199 pinstripe on 11.09.15 at 2:04 pm

This blog has exposed why those in the private sector think that those in the public sector are better off financially.

Anyone in the private sector who is financially worse than the public sector is STUPID, and it impossible to educate STUPID.

TIP: check out the tax forms.

#200 Hardly Here on 11.09.15 at 2:07 pm

Liberal voters prove themselves ‘the bum boys’ of American political hacks.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ndp-liberals-using-grassroots-mobilization-tactics-from-obama-campaigns/article22216447/

You all must be so proud to have flushed Canadian sovereignty down the toilet in favour of a subservience to Obama.

#201 OXI in GREECE !! on 11.09.15 at 2:07 pm

April # 119 – Garth is a doomer, or at least writes like one. Here are the real numbers from Stats Can – look em up youself. “Released: 2015-11-06

After four months of little change, employment increased by 44,000 (+0.2%) in October, bringing the number of people employed in Canada to over 18 million for the first time. The unemployment rate declined by 0.1 percentage points to 7.0%. Compared with 12 months earlier, employment was up 143,000 (+0.8%), with all of the gains in full-time work. During the same period, the total number of hours worked grew by 0.7%.”

Canada has many good companies to invest in. Sure, own some US and global equities, have some safe stuff and some growth/dividend stuff, have some real estate – that is all good GT advice. But posts like “Betty Sue lost her job and so will all of you because Canada is about to implode” is tiresome. That’s all.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

You believe those stats can numbers? You probably voted for Stephen Fascist Harper too…..

#202 Mike in Edm on 11.09.15 at 2:09 pm

To the view ppl that comment on how ppl will do ANYTHING to not sell their house for a loss, and therefore prices will barely decrease…. I think you’re only assuming everyone bought in the last ~7years. What about all the people that bought in the early 2000’s and have seen their houses double (or triple) in price since then? You don’t think if they’re desperate (ie job loss in Calgary), and NEED to sell, they won’t drop their price below ‘market’ value to get a quick sell? They’ll still be up massively in the end. I’m sure that’s happening (or about to happen) a bunch.

On a side note, I can count 3 friends (dtown condo, acreage, and cookie cutter in the burbs) that are all underwater in Edmonton because they bought in the last year, plus another friend whose underwater and the house is still being built. Ouch. The cookie cutter owners planned on selling in 2 years to head back to the East coast. That definitely isn’t going to happen now.

#203 OXI in GREECE !! on 11.09.15 at 2:09 pm

#175 young & foolish on 11.09.15 at 11:00 am
this whole private vs. public meme is tiresome ….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
This coming from a high salary awesome benefits and pension till they die from plebs who barely live paycheck to paycheck govt worker…….

#204 John on 11.09.15 at 2:20 pm

Great post today. You should never completely rely on a single income. Keep your expenses low, save aggressively and invest in stocks, or a local business or start your own side gig.

I would also like to add, it’s not just about potentially losing your job. Some people absolutely hate their job and are miserable everyday but they are so over their heads with expenses and debt that they are forced to stay. Terrible and dangerous situation.

#205 pbrasseur on 11.09.15 at 2:50 pm

In my opinion one of the characteristic of tomorrow’s work market is that productivity will matter a whole lot more than in an economy structurally adapted to a real estate/credit bubble.

RE creates lots of jobs, all local jobs, good paying jobs and a large number of low skill jobs in many sectors such as construction, finances, insurance, consumption. Nothing is better to accommodate (and maybe even encourage) high dropout rates from public schools…

What this implies is that when the credit mirage vanishes a lot of people not only will lose their jobs but will find themselves with skills no longer needed by the economy.

This I believe has happened in the US already, it is why you find a 5% unemployment rate, plenty of job openings along a participation rate that is the lowest in almost 40 years. Literally millions of people have dropped out of the work market because their skills (or lack of) simply no longer match the demand. This also explains why this is possibly the slowest recovery ever.

This should be very worrisome to Canada which has an even bigger RE bubble (in terms of share of GDP) and must at the same time live through the oil/commodity meltdown, nor to mention population ageing more pronounced here. If you understand this you’re one step ahead and should use the time to strengthen you position. Unfortunately I think many Canadians don’t realize what’s coming.

#206 nakamoto on 11.09.15 at 2:57 pm

Rates will not rise. Garth drinking the Fed’s cool aid.

Rates are no longer set by the Fed, they are being set by the Treasury the largest debt originator of mankind.

Bust the Treasury or lie to everyone, that is the new box.

You were fooled in September and fooling yourself that rates will rise in December.

This is a pathetic blog where fools who have low IQ think you have a working crystal ball. Your passé, old mentality of honest central banking is over.

We’re not in Kansas anymore. Garth your mind cannot distinguish imagination over reality anyways, so enjoy the dream you’ve woven up for yourself.

#207 TRT on 11.09.15 at 3:14 pm

Anyone here know where the big Syrian enclaves are in this country?

Want to pick up a low cost rental.

Thanks.

#208 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.09.15 at 3:16 pm

Garth-

You allow all of this non-factual whining on gov’t employees salaries and benefits but you don’t allow a retort?

#209 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.09.15 at 3:17 pm

Never mind. Your site clock is an hour off.

#210 truth will eventually come out on 11.09.15 at 3:26 pm

Today on BNN Benjamin Tal, Senior Economist for BNS said “There will be no rate increase until well past 2017 because the BOC Governor has an agenda to keep down the value of the Canadian Dollar”…..show is archived, watch for yourself.

He went on to say that “The only people to benefit from the BOC strategy are the foreign buyers coming in who dominate the Vancouver and Toronto markets”….show is archived…watch for yourself.

So there you have it….an agenda to sell houses to foreigners who are specifically and directly given an advantage over Canadians.

Recently we found out that CDN BANKS have no GDSR restraints against mortgages on foreign buyers. Meaning a foreign buyer can enter a bidding war knowing that whatever the Canadian is pre approved for means nothing to them…the foreigner can wait until the house is bid up and then top it with a CMHC protected mortgage above what a Canadian quality’s for…having unrestricted mortgage guarantee’s without being a Canadian citizen.

Currently a Yuan holder will only pay $600,000 for your million dollar home….a Brit only pays $500,000….a Euro…$600,000. There is no way Canadians can compete with both hands tied behind their backs and the with the fix being in for foreign buyers.

Anyone got a reason why? At this point….there are only conspiracy theories by the thousands as to why Canada is being sublimated….is ther an economic fact at play…yet unannounced….a single one…why Canadians have had their dream of owning a home crushed in favour of foreign buyers?

#211 MF on 11.09.15 at 3:46 pm

#169 -=jwk=- on 11.09.15 at 10:21 am

“Your sister has a B.Comm (4 years) + 2 years of CA training, an 8 hour exam that 50% of takers fail, plus 2 years of hell-on-earth internship. That’s 8 years of instant noodles. She worked her ass off to be where she is today. As a CA in private sector she would be at 100k within 5 years.

Here’s a tip to all you whining about high salaries:get an education!”

-Dumbest comment on here by far.

Take ANY one of the trades and see how much they make after having ZERO debt and ZERO schooling.

This is coming from a Uni grad who has friends on both sides of the fence.

No comparison.

Wake up it’s 2015.

Here’s a better type for all those whining: Learn a useful skill.

MF

#212 MF on 11.09.15 at 3:55 pm

#204 pbrasseur on 11.09.15 at 2:50 pm

This is a great post. In my cohort (early 30’s) in Toronto, I would say about 60-70% of us work in something related to RE or insurance.

I’ve noticed that all those people working in the FIRE industry are the ones who are most delusional and are most overleveraged with multiple condos, houses etc.

Yet most people are clueless. What a disconnect eh? I guess that’s the wealth effect Garth has mentioned many times.

MF

#213 Nemesis on 11.09.15 at 4:09 pm

#BlogDogsContemplating’OutPlacement’… #IfYouEnjoyedUpInTheAir… #You’llJustLove… #LesterBlackmailsBrad,Or… #HowThePro’sHandle’Rejection’…

https://youtu.be/hJVXg1AHQTY

[NoteToGT: I am reliably informed that an ‘InsurancePolicy’ is always your best friend when negotiating exit packages…]

#214 Mark on 11.09.15 at 4:22 pm

“Always have a plan B.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/ccpa-housing-correction-1.3310401

So very true. Just like as in the US, the young are likely to be disproportionately hit by the housing collapse.

” As a CA in private sector she would be at 100k within 5 years.”

You’d be surprised at how much of a glut there is for CA/CPA’s these days.

#215 gumboot princess on 11.09.15 at 4:29 pm

Garth, I loved your post. Just full of wonderful wisdom.

My two bits to add is that it feels very lonely and very humiliating to make a mistake financially or with a job loss. The last thing a person wants to do is to open up and tell the world.

But Garth is right when he says to not be proud. After a good puke on your shoes, so to speak, the best thing is to get out a yellow pad and start crunching numbers. Show the pad to a few close people and show that you are attempting a plan. It might happen to you again and it will happen to others you know.

And I laughed about Costco. It is a double-edged sword. I have gone in for toilet paper and walked out with a canoe and flowers.

#216 -=jwk=- on 11.09.15 at 4:32 pm

@ #210. You think trades are easy? You don’t think a tradesperson is educated? It takes years to apprentice in a professional trade. You don’t think a 3 yr plumbing apprentice is being educated?


Here’s a better type for all those whining: Learn a useful skill.

Yeah, like accounting. Duh.

#217 Holy Crpa Wheres The Tylenol on 11.09.15 at 4:47 pm

Our first shitty rain day, well that little hurricane thing you know. Went for a drive around the Island today and lo and behold Cafe Johnny Canoe Restaurant is gone, not only it but the Old Nassau Beach Hotel. God I loved these old places, this is where some old James Bond movies were filmed. All this old Bahamas Colonial architecture gone some lame ass Baha Mar place the likes of Atlantis.
And of course is [email protected]$ked up by this dam China State Construction Engineering Corp. These guys are a joke.
The voluntary Chapter 11 filing has been made in the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware, who know when this will settle. In the mean time 2000 unemployed staff.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/paradise-lost-mounting-problems-stymie-baha-mar-1436299541

#218 Vundo on 11.09.15 at 4:55 pm

210 MF: the trades don’t get the respect they are due, but it is hardly a magic solution. There is schooling for trades too if you want to be at least a journeyman. Maybe a better deal that spending the same number of years in academia, but it is not insignificant. Also, a lot of good tradespeople in Alberta are unemployed too. Some of them had huge cash flow coming in but managed to get themselves in debt anyway. They have mortgages and vehicle loans instead of student loans. No matter whether you have a BFA or a red seal, the best advice is always to avoid debt and manage it carefully when it becomes necessary. Of course that is cliché when it comes to not buying lots of beer with the credit card then never paying the principal back, but also applies to other things people have a harder time grasping like what to do with $50k instead of putting it as a 5% down on a million dollar mortgage.

#219 april on 11.09.15 at 5:00 pm

#200 – Your jumping to conclusions, usually comes from ignorance, but have it your way, and no, no stats can #s and no Harper.

#220 IHCTD9 on 11.09.15 at 5:00 pm

#59 Snowboid on 11.08.15 at 8:33 pm

Oh BTW there most certainly is a replacement for displacement. Our current car is 2 litres smaller than the 350 auto Z28, but has 150 more horsepower. 0-60 8.7 seconds for the Z28, 5.1 for our current car.

Either way I certainly wouldn’t recommend a Camaro as a first car, having owned two of them in past.
____________________________________________

Current Z28 0-60 in 4.4 seconds.

**There is no replacement for displacement.** After all the N20, turbos and blowers are bolted on – the bigger engine still always wins the HP wars.

You are probably old enough to know better.

#221 IHCTD9 on 11.09.15 at 5:09 pm

-Dumbest comment on here by far.

Take ANY one of the trades and see how much they make after having ZERO debt and ZERO schooling.

This is coming from a Uni grad who has friends on both sides of the fence.

No comparison.

Wake up it’s 2015.

Here’s a better type for all those whining: Learn a useful skill.

MF
___________________________________________

University degrees in large part are a dime a dozen. They’ve never had so little impact on your job or income prospects.

Witness the would be teachers and engineers on 3rd and 4th year machinist and welder fitter apprenticeships out on the floor where I work. One guy went straight from high school to a grunt in our shop. Couple years later he is an apprentice. Now he GETS PAID to go to school. He is way ahead of the others who have 4-5 years worth of school debt to pay off working the same job for the same wages as him.

He’s 3 years in on a mortgage. Has a nice Truck, Sled, ATV, and Boat in lieu of tuition debt LOL!

#222 unbalanced on 11.09.15 at 5:10 pm

Tax evasion is a crime. On the other hand tax avoidance is a moral responsibility. I am a moral man. For those complaining about Costco. Buy the shares. They have a pretty darn good track record for the last 5 years.

#223 For those about to flop... on 11.09.15 at 5:11 pm

Gumboot princess214Garth is right when he says to not be proud. After a good puke on your shoes.

/////////////////////////////////////
Ohhh,now I get it that’s why you upgraded to gumboots.
Easier to wipe off huh?

#224 Calgary's Housing Market on 11.09.15 at 5:11 pm

# 152 Former Fool

Interesting. You should do this more often. It would help those potential buyers understand what is going on in Calgary and how they hold the power in terms of price negotiation.

Cheers

#225 Admirer on 11.09.15 at 5:14 pm

Garth, how come you won’t publish the article about traditional 60/40 portfolio investing? It would be at least nice to get your comment about it.

Done last week. Irrelevant to most, as it is US-only assets. — Garth

#226 Admirer on 11.09.15 at 5:17 pm

Sorry if I jumped the gun a little. Maybe you still might. I thought it was a bit disturbing what was said.

#227 Snowboid on 11.09.15 at 5:21 pm

No turbos, blowers, nitrous on my 3.7 litre V6 with 330 HP. The new Camaro is 7 litres/505 hp.

Do the math to figure out the HP/litre. I still say mine has the advantage even if the Z28 is 4/10 of a second faster to 60.

Sorry I got off topic, this will be my last of this type, my bad.

#228 MF on 11.09.15 at 5:24 pm

#215 -=jwk=- on 11.09.15 at 4:32 pm

Yeah. You are right..like accounting…..except minus the endless school + debt + whole starting out life late and always playing catchup thing.

You missed the point. Your suggestion for whiners that education guarantees income was something from the 1970’s and laughable.

Got an experiment for you: If you are a boomer, go ask your friends whose children did higher education how their kids are doing. Do the same thing to the boomers whose kids went into a trade and did minimal schooling.

Compare results and see.

I work with lots of teens. Thankfully, I think the message is finally getting through that education is useful but definitely no guarantee to a good job. I wish it were since I did a Masters but it simply is not the case.

MF

#229 Bill on 11.09.15 at 5:27 pm

Anyone that doesn’t think the Chinese aren’t boosting real estate through the roof in Vancouver is sadly mistaken….. including Garth sorry. Go to CKNW audio vault 9am Sat about 30 min in and listen to Aussie Jurock. My kids are f##ked trying to buy in Vancouver now. I just listen and he is dead on. Realtors happyas pigs in shit.

His name is Ozzie. He’s a professional real estate shill. Take his advice and tell us how it works out. — Garth

#230 MF on 11.09.15 at 5:30 pm

#217 Vundo on 11.09.15 at 4:55 pm

“They have mortgages and vehicle loans instead of student loans. No matter whether you have a BFA or a red seal, the best advice is always to avoid debt and manage it carefully when it becomes necessary.”

I agree with your post completely. Nothing is guaranteed and personal circumstances will vary with personality types. Some personality types may be concentrated higher in certain lines of work as well.

Tradesman can be “rough around the edges”.

There is also the issue of personal safety. I work in health care and we see lots of tradesman with back/knee/neck issues. Once your body fails you, there is no choice but to retrain and do something less physical.

That being said, accountants and people who do other desk jobs all day are also putting their bodies at risk. We can’t win lol.

MF

#231 cramar on 11.09.15 at 5:41 pm

CBC is abuzz with this today. CCPA & OECD both issued warnings that some in the younger generations could be wiped out with a 20% housing correction—especially in Toronto. Who would have thunk?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/ccpa-housing-correction-1.3310401

#232 Snowboid on 11.09.15 at 5:50 pm

#196 S.Bby on 11.09.15 at 1:47 pm…

A quick search of a couple of ‘crown corps’ indicates clerks in the $50K-55K range. Mid-level managers could expect $ 100K with several years service. Your SIL must make mega-bucks if she is supervising $ 100K clerks.

As for my car I did state I wouldn’t post off-topic, so will defer to this quote:

“…Motor Trend reviewers clock times from 0-60 at just 5.0 seconds, “with the quarter-mile obliterated in just 13.5 sec at 105.3 mph.”

So I was wrong it’s faster than I mentioned, and it’s 3.7 litres BTW.

#233 Lillooet, BC on 11.09.15 at 6:09 pm

#226 Snowboid on 11.09.15 at 5:21 pm

***********************************
I work in the BC public sector
Is the BC municipal pension plan commutable?

Thanks!

#234 family beagle on 11.09.15 at 6:11 pm

Now Hiring for F.I.S.T.
Foreign Investor Security Team

Positions Available:
Airport Liaison
Itinerary Coordinator
Tactical Team Leader
Weapons Guy
Car Guy
Guy Who Dies First
Hard to Get Hottie
Sweaty Bare Chested Fighting Guy
Computer Nerd Girl
Computer Nerd Guy who finds love and then dies
Endless Story Grandpa
Plot Device Dog
Witless Local #1 (dies)
Witless Local #2 (dies)
The “Kid”
Smiley Real Estate Pumper Couple
Fund Febezzler
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Irate Neighbour (dies)
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Lookie Loo (dies)

Headquartered in a 604 basement suite with popular amenities nearby. We will also need Safari Captains to guide Assets into uncivilized zones such as Coquitlam, Langley, Abbottsford.

#235 Ronaldo on 11.09.15 at 6:19 pm

#131 Doug in London on 11.08.15 at 11:46 pm

”So, where’s this labour shortage the “experts” have been predicting for at least the last 10 years?”

I suspect many of the jobs now being held by many of the boomers will become redundant once they retire due to technology plus jobs being shipped overseas. I doubt there will be any great labour shortages.

#236 bdy sktrn on 11.09.15 at 6:40 pm

rejection (OT)

talk about rejection – i just got absolutely blindsided by a stunning rejection , my head is still spinning.

i can’t believe it. it’s been over a year or so since our last (3rd) dog, the wife and kid have pushing for another for quite awhile. for some reason today i think it’s finally time so i look up the local spca jailbirds thinking i could spring one free.

my past dogs had a pretty rough life.
24/7 human companionship (my job is reading GF at home!). all weekends on a leash free farm or wooded island park like setting.
trained to never need a leash in the city
steak/burgers/treats daily and liberally.
never miss a truck ride.
loving family and friends.
tons of playtime with other dogs.
sleep in a human bed with a human heater.
heck i even installed a hot shower outside because one had short hair and no body fat and liked to run in the muddy park .
wouldn’t dare leave them in a kennel if out of town (they stayed at friends with dogs)
friends who regularly ask me to sit their dogs when away, friends who bring there dogs to me to fix behaviour problems.
countless times strangers stopped to comment on how well behaved my dogs were.
ocean/beach swimming weekly.
plus much more…

all lived long and happy lives with never a care or worry in the world and never caused a problem to anyone or anything. (except squirrels)

SPCA says it;s an unsuitable environment for a dog, and they will keep her (sad and beautiful) locked up alone in her cinder block jail cell.

It appears I answered a question wrong in the unexpected 20 second interview that came after i asked if i could take her for a test drive.

20 seconds and the decision was final. no dog for you!

wow.

sadly stupid people outnumber the rest of us.

#237 espressobob on 11.09.15 at 6:58 pm

Starting ones own business is no easy task! It takes more sacrifice than most are willing to take.

Eating KD and pinching nickels is a road travelled only by a few who take the risk. And a tough learning curve.

Financial independence is the only goal worth pursuing. Wealth is in the eye of the beholder.

#238 Linda on 11.09.15 at 7:02 pm

#142 Saskatoon – ‘government initiation of force’? So – you don’t want or need roads, water mains, storm sewers, sanitary sewers, streetlights, garbage pickup & disposal, fire or police services, building inspections, snow removal, street sweeping, public transit, water treatment or wastewater treatment, parks, recreation centers, public pools, libraries or any of the other services that ‘government initiation of force’ provides? None of those services are free. Contract them out? Sure. Just remember, business exists to MAKE A PROFIT. So those services are still going to cost a bundle & as costs go up, guess who has to pay? Hint – look in the mirror.

#239 Ronaldo on 11.09.15 at 7:08 pm

#201 Mike In Edm

”You don’t think if they’re desperate (ie job loss in Calgary), and NEED to sell, they won’t drop their price below ‘market’ value to get a quick sell?”

Absolutely they will, and this will be one of the main causes of a major slide down in prices.

#240 Jeff B on 11.09.15 at 7:10 pm

“First, everybody should strive to make themselves indispensable.”

In a large Canadian corporation, this is nearly impossible. Why? Because the senior execs strive to make themselves oblivious to the skills and importance of their employees. They’re better at being oblivious than you will ever be at making yourself indispensable.

#241 bdy sktrn on 11.09.15 at 7:13 pm

oh, oh pick me!!!

“2010 Infiniti G37 Sedan”

all that crap is slower than molasses when you are on 2 wheels that are not made by harley davidson

#242 bdy sktrn on 11.09.15 at 7:16 pm

It is a double-edged sword. I have gone in for toilet paper and walked out with a canoe and flowers.
———————-
HA!

but you know you got a really really really good deal on that canoe!
happy paddling.

#243 Snowboid on 11.09.15 at 7:25 pm

#232 Lillooet, BC on 11.09.15 at 6:09 pm…

I seem to recall answering this before, anyhow…

I believe you can take the commuted value of the pension prior to your normal earliest retirement age (usually 55).

#244 Ontario's Left Coast on 11.09.15 at 7:44 pm

#235 bdy sktrn

By any chance, would you consider adopting a human? :)

#245 Linda on 11.09.15 at 7:57 pm

#242/#232 – maybe. Depends on the rules for the pension plan. Some let you take the commuted value prior to turning age 55 – others don’t. Your pension plan should be able to answer your questions regarding whether you can take the commuted value out or not. They will almost certainly advise against your doing so, but its your choice.

#246 Bill on 11.09.15 at 8:58 pm

DELETED (anti-Chinese)

#247 Snowboid on 11.09.15 at 9:43 pm

#240 bdy sktrn on 11.09.15 at 7:13 pm…

You win the Google gold award of the week.

Sorry, only bikes I ever rode were Harleys (back in the late 70s), unless a Honda 70 cc dirt bike qualifies. It wasn’t all that fast, but a lot easier to get upright after skidding in gravel – unlike the Harley.

#248 Ryan on 11.09.15 at 11:55 pm

I feel like this blog is sending me mixed signals about my Costco membership.

#249 Kenchie on 11.10.15 at 10:20 am

Yikes

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-10/empty-floors-shadow-vacancies-new-norm-for-calgary-tower-owners

#250 Patrick on 11.10.15 at 2:15 pm

#234 family beagle on 11.09.15 at 6:11 pm
Now Hiring for F.I.S.T.
Foreign Investor Security Team
_________________________________

I want to apply for ‘Hard to get Hottie’ position, but I think that might be for girls only.

Otherwise I’m only really qualified for ‘Guy who dies first’ or I could play a good ‘Irate Neighbour’.

#251 Doug in London on 11.10.15 at 3:50 pm

@Ronaldo, post #235:
Consistent with my thoughts. As for the small number of these jobs which aren’t eliminated by technology or outsourcing they will easily be filled by younger people entering the work force. Presently many of these younger people are unemployed or underemployed.

In the past, EVERY time someone mentioned labour shortage it was a sign to take a defensive stance with investments. I heard of labour shortages in 1988-89, late 1990s and 2000, and 2006-07. There was brief mention of it in the economic recovery after the GFC in 2010. It seems some people never learn. The whole idea of this coming labour shortage is a tempest in a tiny teapot inside a dollhouse.

If anyone here still believes in this coming labour shortage, please let me know. I’ve got some Nortel shares I’ll sell you for the dirt cheap bargain price of only $1000 each!