Au revoir

MOM modified

Even Sherry Cooper couldn’t polish it.

“The jobs numbers released today for October exceeded expectations in both the U.S. and Canada,” the former bank economist, now a shill for Dominion Lending Centres, wrote Friday morning. “This was a particularly important report for the U.S., because it all but insures that the Federal Reserve will hike rates for the first time in a decade when they next meet on December 16.”

In fact, November 6th may go down as the day the music died – at least for those delusional Canadians (millions of them) who think rates will always stay low and houses high. By the afternoon, mortgage brokers were getting the latest news. Get ready. Rates are going up.

Got an email from the mortgage broker with which i have a lock until January. Lenders are pulling rates up and they have until 4PM today to roll over their current commitments. Dominion Lending Centres. The mortgage hub. – Blog comment

In case you missed it, here’s the news you should know.

First, the US created 271,000 new jobs last month, blowing the doors off estimates and reaffirming the country is in the heat of a sustained recovery. That news was enough to convince Sherry and everybody else (except a few mouldy doomers who lurk on this site) that the Fed will initiate rate lift-off in six weeks.

Second, in the bond market prices dropped and yields spiked. As suggested here (with nauseating frequency), the certainly of higher rates had already pushed yields up, making it all but certain fixed-rate mortgages will also rise.

In fact, look what happened to Canadians bonds when the news came down. Yields jumped almost 8%:

BOND CHART

By the way, remember those comments I made about preferred shares? After the Bank of Canada foolishly chopped rates twice this year, prefs tumbled in despair (while continuing to pay their full dividend), causing gnashing and wailing in the blog steerage section. So, I suggested, buy. Because when it’s evident rates are retracing, these things will roar back.

Here’s what happened to the preferred exchange-traded fund called CPD today.

CPD CHART

Third, the great jobs report and spectre of the rate increase by the Fed fueled the US dollar. It surged. The loonie folded – losing almost 1% of its value, despite a generally positive jobs report in Canada. A 75-cent buck means more inflation and a sickening rise in the price of Fat Boys.

Fourth, since commodities are traded in US$, prices slumped. Oil was hit again, falling almost 1.5% to the $44 range. This happened on a bad day – when the American president announced there will never be a Keystone pipeline to carry Alberta oil to the southern States. It was a big win for the environmentalists who decry ‘dirty’ and energy-sucking Canadian oil, and another punch in Alberta’s gut.

Fifth, Friday was another day of warnings that Canadians have their collective derriere hanging out when it comes to real estate risk. I told you yesterday we took on $75 billion in new mortgage debt in just the last 12 months, and now owe $1.88 trillion – all of which will get more expensive in the next few years as rates normalize. Hope you’re ready.

HSBC Bank Canada’s president has just sounded the alarm in a report to Bill Morneau (our poor new finance minister), saying, “I don’t like some recent trends in housing,” and asking the guy to man up like F did. In a report to the T2 cabinet, the banker adds, “In our view, there is a strong case for further macro-prudential measures to manage potential risks to economic growth and financial stability from the housing sector.” And he’s not the first guy to point out that our love of house porn has totally skewed the economy. Look at this:

SCARY CHART

Meanwhile Capital Economics’ David Madani picked Friday to publish his own latest scary report on where housing is headed. “House prices lost touch with income fundamentals long ago, surpassing the peak of the US bubble almost two years ago. Household debt has nudged dangerously higher. Meanwhile, new housing construction has remained at elevated levels, highlighting our long-held concerns of overbuilding.”

What’s next? “A major correction,” he says. “As we have long argued, the trigger that eventually bursts Canada’s housing bubble is irrelevant and will only be known after the fact.”

Is that trigger the Fed’s first rate hike in a decade? The collapse in oil? A tumbling dollar? The surge in bond yields and mortgage costs? The death of Keystone? Alberta houses auctioned for 60% off? A swelling, unrepayable pile of debt? Families caving after one missed paycheque or a $500 mortgage pop?

Or simply people waking up, looking at the granite and asking, ‘what have I done?’

303 comments ↓

#1 Typo on 11.06.15 at 6:55 pm

will always stay how

#2 Victoria Real Estate Update on 11.06.15 at 6:57 pm

SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES

Total Single Family Home Sales
. . January through October. . .
. . . . . Greater Victoria. . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2007…*****************
2015…**
————————————————
. . . . . . -5%. . . . . . . . . . 0%

(source: Victoria’s R/E board)

2015 has been a below average year for SFH sales in Greater Victoria (2007 was an average year).

SFH sales are behind 2007’s pace by 5.4%.

Let’s put 2015’s SFH sales total into proper perspective. To do that it will be necessary to consider the following important factors (that realtors rarely talk about):

1. INTEREST RATES

In October 2007, 5-year fixed mortgage rates were at 5.88% (second chart).

In October 2015, 5-year fixed rates were less than half of that, at 2.37%.

Realtors fear rising rates because they know that, in general, sales decrease and house prices fall as interest rates rise.

The opposite is also true – sales increase and prices rise as rates fall.

Looking at the above chart, it’s clear that 2015’s sales total should be much higher than 2007’s if we take interest rates into account.

How much higher should SFH sales be this year (compared to 2007) with today‘s highly stimulative rates? 30% higher? 40% higher? 50% higher? Double?

It’s obvious that SFH sales have been extremely weak and disappointing so far in 2015.

2. POPULATION GROWTH IN GREATER VICTORIA SINCE 2007

This one is simple – more people (than in 2007) and more houses (than in 2007) should result in more SFH sales (than in 2007).

However, this is not the case.

If we take both of these factors (much lower interest rates and population growth) into account, it exposes just how weak SFH sales have been so far this year in Greater Victoria.

#3 JL on 11.06.15 at 6:59 pm

“This is, by definition, anti-democratic. No individual American has the resources to ensure his or her economic and political interests are safeguarded within this vast global regulatory structure. The predictable and surely desired result of the TPP is to put greater distance between the governed and those who govern. It puts those who make the rules out of reach of those who live under them, empowering unelected regulators who cannot be recalled or voted out of office. In turn, it diminishes the power of the people’s bulwark: their constitutionally-formed Congress.”

Jeff Sessions: Kill The ‘Anti-Democratic’ Trans-Pacific Partnership In The Crib, Repeal Fast-Track Authority Now

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/11/05/jeff-sessions-kill-the-anti-democratic-trans-pacific-partnership-in-the-crib-repeal-fast-track-authority-now/

#4 Marco on 11.06.15 at 6:59 pm

I guess there’s a little wet spot on old granny Yellen’s panties. 270K! Lift Off!!!!

#5 Victoria Real Estate Update on 11.06.15 at 7:00 pm

These beautiful, spacious homes can be bought for a fraction of the cost of a comparable Victoria home.

The price difference is as staggering as the difference in climate between Victoria and these US cities that have summer-like winter weather. Year-round beautiful weather in these cities makes purchasing a vacation property attractive to thousands of Canadians each year.

Some delusional Victorians claim that Americans would rather buy homes in Victoria than in Florida, for example. Victoria? The same Victoria that has cold and rainy weather for 6 months of the year? I’ll have to strongly disagree with that one.

All of these homes have the following characteristics:
* at least 1,800 sq. ft. of primary (above ground) living space
* min. 3 beds, 2 baths
* max. 10 years old
* an attached double garage

Note that a similar Victoria home would probably cost at least $750 K.

$ 142 K, Palm Bay, Florida

$ 110 K, Coolidge, Arizona (Phoenix)

$ 140 K, Lehigh Acres, Florida (Cape Coral)

$ 125 K, Florence, Arizona (Phoenix)

$ 129 K, Houston, Texas

Note that foreclosure and auction homes were not included.

#6 MSM-Free Zone on 11.06.15 at 7:00 pm

Can’t see the BoC raising rates until the number of responsible Canadians who are able to withstand a rate hike vastly outnumber the number of moronic Canadians who have pickled themselves in low-interest debt.

Then again, being so closely tied at the hip to the U.S., the BoC may have no choice in the matter.

Oh, well, there’s always 40-year mortgages again to make housing more ‘affordable’ again (insert sarcasm). I’m sure the Big Six and CREA already have their lobbyists fully briefed for the New Kid on the Block.

#7 another Typo on 11.06.15 at 7:01 pm

Is that trigger the Fed’s first rate hike

#8 Ontario's Left Coast on 11.06.15 at 7:01 pm

Whoa, first? Cheers and happy weekend to Garth and all the dogs!

#9 JG on 11.06.15 at 7:02 pm

First! no surprise here except for those in denial.

the next 6 months should be interesting

#10 aerozone on 11.06.15 at 7:03 pm

…and I repeat
I love our little RE short
…no possiblity of a call on this one!

#11 Canuck on 11.06.15 at 7:03 pm

It’s all starting to come together isn’t it? How bad will the fallout from the Keystone be? Will we see another wave of layoffs in Alberta? …which would of course cascade into more housing listings, price cuts ect…

#12 Hunday Snotta Driver on 11.06.15 at 7:04 pm

I am on the mailing list with two mortgage brokers. Both sent me messages today with the same info, lock in immediately or face increases.

This looks like a very big turning point to me.

#13 Canadian on 11.06.15 at 7:07 pm

Couldn’t help but notice all of my preferred bank shares inflated like happy birthday balloons. If that is a sign of things to come, bring on the Brave New World. Garth you got that one ONE THOUSAND PERCENT right I could jump through my computer and give you a hug.

#14 JL on 11.06.15 at 7:08 pm

“The US consumer is rolling.

Consumer credit balances rose by $28.91 billion in September, or 10% at an annualized rate, more than expected.”

Consumer credit rises more than expected in September

http://www.businessinsider.com/consumer-credit-september-2015-2015-11

#15 MSM-Free Zone on 11.06.15 at 7:09 pm

“…..A 75-cent buck means more inflation and a sickening rise in the price of Fat Boys……..”
_________________________

….and parts and accessories for Fat Boys. The guys at Davies and Jacox are already in cardiac arrest looking at next year.

btw, do they make snow tires for Hawgs? Inquiring minds need to know….

#16 Smoking Man on 11.06.15 at 7:09 pm

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDCAD:CUR

Ha, my bet back in the plus million range. My oil hedge not so good.

My casino play money just got a boost…paid in USD

NEVER bet against smoking man.

#17 stage1dave on 11.06.15 at 7:10 pm

Well, that’s a cheery way to start the weekend!

On a further depressing note, was reading an interesting diatribe last nite about the Canada’s “net capital outflow”; which is pushing 10%…worst in the G-20 apparently. More good news…

On a positive note, the winter in our part of AB is forecast to be the mildest in years…which is good, considering most everything else around here is turning into a total shitshow :)

#18 JSS on 11.06.15 at 7:11 pm

As I mentioned a couple of days ago, I got a letter from RBC stating that they’re going to increase my HELOC interest rate next month from Prime to “Prime+0.5%”.

Who else got a letter?

Gonna get ugly.

#19 Greg Ellis on 11.06.15 at 7:13 pm

With Ontario having incomprehensible house prices, why have cottage prices languished? Mine is not in Muskoka but it located on the water on the Bruce Peninsula which is increribly beautiful. Yet prices are a way below 2006 levels. Are people tapped out or are cottages a thing of the past?

#20 likeyouknow,whatever on 11.06.15 at 7:15 pm

In respect to the gospel that is Greaterfool, I am agnostic. I will believe it when I see it (a major correction in 604)

#21 bill on 11.06.15 at 7:16 pm

I guess this where one should shout ‘timber’ or ‘look out below’ or something….

#22 Tim on 11.06.15 at 7:16 pm

Huh. I bought a $50K chunk of preferred shares the first week of October and was a little miffed that they immediately went down. “Thanks Garth, you doofus”, I thought.

I feel far less miffed. Thanks Garth.

You not-as-much-of-a-doofus.

#23 Greg Ellis on 11.06.15 at 7:17 pm

Meant “incredibly beautiful”. Sorry.

#24 Weep for Canada on 11.06.15 at 7:24 pm

Yeah….maybe….but bad things are already happening to good people who are heavily indebted all over Canada. Watched a report last night about a family where foreclosure came faster than they thought it might. The mortgage broker they used was saying…”an extension should be made in this case”. But I don’t think he said anything about returning his fee to the desperate family.

Hmmmm….Yellen and Obama have sidelined the market 42 times in the past with erroneous and ambiguous statements about rates and the revisions in jobs numbers during this election cycle are likely way bulcrappy in favor of the Dems efforts to fundraise. ……lets see what actually happens before we pile into the CPD or ZPR.

Rates in the states are all about politics

#25 common sense on 11.06.15 at 7:24 pm

Actually the Talking Heads sang “Oh my god, what have I done…

Yes, a rate is coming yet I will still believe it when I see it.

Nice quality of jobs from the USA http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t09.htm

More Wal Mart greeters and many more looking forward to Freedom 55!

More [email protected]#$%! Great recovery!! What a joke….

Got to raise those rates to keep whatever is left of our dignity….

#26 Cloudy on 11.06.15 at 7:25 pm

When the Fed begins raising rates, it will cause bond yields to rise and that will affect the Canadian Bond Market too, correct? I read a few economists views that this will cause enough tightening on its own to allow Canada to maintain emergency rates for longer even as the Fed maintains steady increases. Is there any likelihood of this happening or will we follow suit with increases? How long can we hold off until we begin to raise rates as well?

#27 Harbour on 11.06.15 at 7:26 pm

Dummies. Obama Rejected Keystone XL Pipeline BECAUSE He’s a Friend to “Big Oil”…

http://louderwithcrowder.com/dummies-obama-rejected-keystone-xl-pipeline-because-hes-a-friend-to-big-oil/

#28 young & foolish on 11.06.15 at 7:26 pm

Looks like Canada is headed for recessionary times. If housing tanks, and we have a 70% ownership rate with record debt, then just what will that do to our consumer economy?

Looks like another year of depressed TSX values.

#29 The American on 11.06.15 at 7:28 pm

Let me get this straight… Canadians owe $1.88 Trillion in mortgage debt. Americans owe $8.09 Trillion in mortgage debt. The U.S. population is 9 times the size of the Canadian population. Americans owe 4.3 times the amount overall than Canadians overall. So, simply put, Canadians owe 2.09 times more in mortgage debt, per capita, than Americans. WOW. Sounds like a nasty spending problem to me. Not to mention outright stupid to honestly believe its sustainable. Now, add to that household debt (obviously not including mortgages) and Canada is beyond screwed, especially given its shitty economy.

#30 NextYear on 11.06.15 at 7:29 pm

No Rate hike in December Garth, when will you finally accept this is a big bluff.

Incessantly talking about raising rate in a near future is their way to do some kind of tightening without actually raising the rates.

So far it is working, it has almost everyone fooled!!! For how long now have we had Rate hikes just around the corner?

#31 Macrath on 11.06.15 at 7:36 pm

Get ready. Rates are going up and Grandma Yellen will look into the 18 trillion dollar empty cupboard on Dec 16 and say,” not now you starving seniors but for sure in January.”

Has anyone gone back all the way to Carney and counted all the break out the champagne “its lift off” posts on this pathetic blog.

Its going to be interesting to see what the excuse will be this time.

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

#32 Mike in the OK on 11.06.15 at 7:37 pm

Me thinks one and done til end of 2016. Neither the US nor emerging economies can take a stronger US$.

#33 young & foolish on 11.06.15 at 7:39 pm

“Huh. I bought a $50K chunk of preferred shares the first week of October and was a little miffed that they immediately went down. “Thanks Garth, you doofus”, I thought.

I feel far less miffed. Thanks Garth.”

Remember, you haven’t made any captial gains unless you sell (otherwise you hold on for the dividends), sort of like investment RE.

#34 Millenial on 11.06.15 at 7:39 pm

Yes, 271k jobs created.

What are the demographics of those jobs?
– Workers aged 55 and over: Gained 378,000 jobs
– Workers aged 25-54: Lost 35,000 jobs

Maybe I’m thinking about this too hard.

#35 Brian Ripley on 11.06.15 at 7:40 pm

re: What’s next? “A major correction,” David Madani

A correction in earnings has already started. Here are my updated Canada wide earnings charts:

http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html

And these data have a 2 month lag.

#36 Lee bow on 11.06.15 at 7:41 pm

#4 is disgusting

Everybody is gonna have to take a hit… Taxpayers, home owners, banks. Worst, this is danse macabre. Even those who didn’t participate in this madness will have to pay via higher taxes, crime, crappy economy.

#37 Kilby on 11.06.15 at 7:41 pm

The price difference is as staggering as the difference in climate between Victoria and these US cities that have summer-like winter weather. Year-round beautiful weather in these cities makes purchasing a vacation property attractive to thousands of Canadians each year.

Try spending the OTHER six months in those cities, 100 + degree weather and same humidity in some. We have neighbours on the island that own by the ocean in San Clemente and spend 6 months in their Parksville home to escape the heat.

Many older Canadians with health issues are buying here as well because of the costs of medical insurance, with an impending 70 cent dollar we will no doubt see more moving here.

#38 Randy on 11.06.15 at 7:42 pm

Trudeau Liberals Launch National Energy Program Phase 2.

#39 Dreamers on 11.06.15 at 7:45 pm

Falling loonie only means cheaper houses foR people from china who are OBSESSED with real estate.
No correction here,EVER.
GOOD DAY WISHFUL THINKERS.

#40 Retired WI Boomer on 11.06.15 at 7:45 pm

I like that rates have been jolted upwards a little.

IF Yellin raises rates in Dec. then Yellin raises rates in Dec.

I will not get excited until the event happens (if it does…). Clear??

MY world will NOT be affected because rates went up be it a quarter point, or FOUR and a quarter points.

#41 HellYeah on 11.06.15 at 7:47 pm

“A 75-cent buck means more inflation and a sickening rise in the price of Fat Boys.”

Well it’s about darn time the currency of the Fat Boys went up!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZEkUeh1awZ0

#42 salonist on 11.06.15 at 7:49 pm

#5 Victoria Real Estate Update on

Lehigh Acres, Florida (Cape Coral)
is a dogs breakfast of an area,flea infested,miserable part of fort myers..disgusting.

a fog head neighborhood

don’t know from whom you got your numbers
friend on daniels parkway,gated community,beautiful house.dropped from $400,000.00 to it’s present value of $81,000.00

#43 Jeffrey Green on 11.06.15 at 7:49 pm

Love the blog still but you’re wrong, no increase in rates. Will be revised downward job numbers. Look at the jobs created, crappy. Welcome Walmart Greeters.

#44 robert james on 11.06.15 at 7:50 pm

It appears that life is about to change for the real estate intellectuals that are carrying a high debt load…………. The sh*t storm just gets worse for Alberta every day it seems.. Being up to your arse in debt and worrying about losing your job if you still have a job that is ,,is kind of depressing.. It would be nice to hear “skier Bob`s ” thoughts on the Alberta situation..

#45 SAM on 11.06.15 at 7:50 pm

To Victoria Real Estate Update: Comparing U.S to Canada is like comparing a LEXUS to Ford Focus ( standard Edition). Americans are different and so is their country. We are a no-frill nation. Frugal, pessimist, narrow minded and under achievers. That is why we invest everything into a house and wait for the retirement.

#46 pathcontrolmonk on 11.06.15 at 7:51 pm

Nobody in YVR seems to watch or understand the news. Everyone I know are blissfully ignorant of any risks, with many still doubling down. Sadly, even a 50% correction would only bring many moldy 80you bungalows to just under $1 million.

#47 TurnerNation on 11.06.15 at 7:57 pm

I was on a trading floor this am and heard Research dept cheering this job number on. Through the Chinese Wall.

#48 pathcontrolmonk on 11.06.15 at 8:00 pm

Ditto on #4. Marco, go play in the traffic.

#49 waiting on the westcoast on 11.06.15 at 8:01 pm

Yellen – is about time!

It will be interesting to see the BoC reaction… Homeowners or the dollar?…

#50 PGer on 11.06.15 at 8:01 pm

Keystone rejection, housing bubbles in major urban centers about to pop, higher interest rates with records amount of personal debt. Sunny days friends, sunny days.

#51 Big Dipper on 11.06.15 at 8:03 pm

“when the American president announced there will never be a Keystone pipeline to carry Alberta oil to the southern States. It was a big win for the environmentalists who decry ‘dirty’ and energy-sucking Canadian oil, and another punch in Alberta’s gut.”

No, a big win for humanity, because as Obama said, this signals that the US is serious about man-made climate change.

Canada, under the previous leadership of the chubby Evangelical, blew it. Telling the President of the US that is was a “slam dunk” and “I’m not taking no for an answer” is a sure recipe for rejection and we got it.

The Corporate drones in Alta drank the Con cool-aid and, instead of taking the environmental concerns seriously, refused to initiate a comprehensive program of emission reduction. They got what they paid for.

Of course, to hell with a US pipeline, we’ll just build our own. Right, right? Another slam dunk? Strangely, it seems Canadians suffer from the same NIMBY syndrome as the Americans. But it does not matter, because at $45/barrel no one is crazy enough to put down billions for new tar sands plants anytime soon. Go figure.

#52 ForeBiz on 11.06.15 at 8:06 pm

I’m a long time reader that’s over-invested in real estate (2 houses, 1 Rented) and I still really enjoy this blog. My investments should be equal to the house values sometime next year in part to some of the advice I’ve read here.

Garth, Remember that the blog entry on July 19th suggested buying preferreds. It’s a little early to say I told you so as you’d still be down over 4% if you’d done so the next day on CPD.

I listened to you and bought on the 24th of July so here’s hoping the upward trend sticks.

#53 TEMPLE on 11.06.15 at 8:10 pm

Watt says, “In our view, there is a strong case for further macro-prudential measures to manage potential risks to economic growth and financial stability from the housing sector.”

Huh? Does Watt get paid by the word?

#54 rainclouds on 11.06.15 at 8:11 pm

Clearly the marketing weanies in the city of didn’t get the memo

#55 Toronto_CA on 11.06.15 at 8:12 pm

My metaphore for this whole housing situation in Canada is that of a train. Specifically, a train heading towards people who have decided to eat a picnic on the tracks.

There are those of us standing to the side of the tracks, trying to warn people of the danger of what they’re doing. Because those sitting down eating can’t see the train, they tell us we’re nuts. We’ve been warning them about this train for years, and it hasn’t come, so they think they’re safe. Well now the steam whistle is blowing, and the train is on the horizon.

#56 rainclouds on 11.06.15 at 8:12 pm

http://villasatwatermark.com/?gclid=CIHAm8SC_cgCFRSIfgodn1oCDQ

That would be the city of perpetual Neoconservatism

#57 omg the original on 11.06.15 at 8:14 pm

“As we have long argued, the trigger that eventually bursts Canada’s housing bubble is irrelevant and will only be known after the fact.”
———-

Don’t mean to rain in the parade BUT……

the only catalyst that will upset the BLOATED PIG of Canadian housing is rising interest rates.

In the near term its doubtful rates will raise too much – maybe 1/2 to 3/4 percent over the next year. The world economy is still too fragile. That percentage increase still keeps mortgage rate near record lows.

But the world economy will recover – it always does. And with it we will get new employment, inflation and a return to normal interest rates but that will be over the next 3 to 5 year.

When major increases in rates flow through to mortgage rates only then will you start seeing meaningful weakness in the Canadian market.

#58 Randy on 11.06.15 at 8:15 pm

Canadians deserve what is coming to them…haha

#59 Hank Paulson on 11.06.15 at 8:18 pm

This is a dead cat bounce. Wait a few weeks to months lets say after Christmas and things will get worse.

We now have in Canada’s largest governments, 3 liberals, Canada, Ontario, Toronto.

Good luck with making progress financially and the job side.

I know nobody likes to hear it but don’t be surprised how bad things will get in 2016. You’ve been warned!

#60 waiting on the westcoast on 11.06.15 at 8:21 pm

If you look at how actual herds work… Individuals slowly start pointing in a direction. Over time, the group desiring to move surpass the number that indicate staying put. Once the tipping point is reached, it is a mad dash forward.

Watch the herd slowly come to terms with the situation and then the accelerating movement in a new direction…

I learn about humans from my chickens… We really are not that sophisticated. ;-)

#61 nonplused on 11.06.15 at 8:23 pm

The Donald will put Keystone through eventually. After all it’s in their national interests. It’s as cheap as shale oil, just as clean, and way safer than nuclear. Why would they want us sending it to China? Buffet wants it shipped by rail but that has been clearly shown to be a tad dangerous.

#62 RayofLight on 11.06.15 at 8:24 pm

Pres. Obama’s cancellation of the Keystone pipeline is a low political blow to Canada. At the same time as China’s use of coal was purposely under stated by 20%, (and they get a pass), and the oil pipeline constructed in the states was 10 times the Keystone in length over the deferred review time, the motive for Pres. Obama’s decision was not “to protect the environment”, but to enhance his personal finances by salvaging his legacy. Yes Pres. Obama is green, he is green with envy of Bill’s lecture fees and he wants a piece of this financial action post presidency. Pres. Obama is blatantly catering to the wealthy progressive liberal tree huggers, and is counting on them the pay substantial follower lecture fees. This decision had nothing to do about the environment. Pres.Obama’s legacy, in retrospect, will be he will make G.W. look good.

#63 omg the original on 11.06.15 at 8:26 pm

Dreamers on 11.06.15 at 7:45 pm
Falling loonie only means cheaper houses foR people from china who are OBSESSED with real estate.
No correction here,EVER.
GOOD DAY WISHFUL THINKERS.
——————–

I THANK THE GOD OF MARKETS EVERYDAY……

for the people that THINK like this.

For they are the POOR SMUCKS that cannot see beyond the last 6 months and GET SLAUGHTERED, absolutely slaughtered.

The best investing advice I ever got was to study some market history.

In the world of finance its is so obvious that history does repeat.

The only change is what sector it is this time.

#64 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.06.15 at 8:27 pm

@#56 rainclouds

Wow!
30 years ago Bearspaw was nothing but a gravel pit…… yeesh

#65 Freedom First on 11.06.15 at 8:29 pm

Yes. I have said for a few years on here that Canadians have been sleeping. The U.S. Europe Japan etc. had already all had their wake up call. Now, the alarm clocks are going off full blast in Alberta. I am witnessing the rude awakening in Alberta first hand. Ugly. The msm was late reporting it, as I informed everyone here what was happening in Alberta long before the msm was forced to finally cover it. And today, any idiot living in Alberta can see things are far worse than the media is reporting(I know), as to the # of people whose jobs have been obliterated. Contractors, etc.

#66 common sense on 11.06.15 at 8:32 pm

Ahhhh those Preferred…

Hmm. if your INVESTOR you will hold them for how long?

If your a TRADER, I’d be watching soon to take your gains if you have any before they go backwards again.

I’m with Smoking Man..the only sure thing for the next little while is watching the TSX slowly sink and USD appreciate.

Buy and Hold any stock, ETF in THIS manipulated market environment? LOL….Please.

Any comments when this all explodes?

#67 M on 11.06.15 at 8:37 pm

Gartho baby.. los federales will not hike the interest rates.
It’s more likely Jenny will have a sex change operation.
Didn’t I tell you that about 100 times by now ?

:)

#68 the Jaguar on 11.06.15 at 8:38 pm

Sure didn’t take long for Obama to cut loose Keystone XL after Trudeau announced Canadian planes would be pulled from operations in Syria. Not that there was ever much hope of a resurrection. Selling the idea as ‘safe oil from a friendly neighbour’ was a disaster. The americans could easily weigh the environmental and political risks against any temporary jobs gain. It’s best to have the decision out there anyway so we can move on as a province and as a nation. This should be a great awakening. Alberta needs to diversify into other sectors and dump its heavy reliance on oil & gas. The province has everything in its tool belt if it can just change its mindset.

#69 Snowboid on 11.06.15 at 8:39 pm

#37 Kilby on 11.06.15 at 7:41 pm…

Currently as a snowboid I can’t comment on what it’s like to survive 100 + heat, but when I was a youngster I survived a couple of years working in the Phoenix/Tucson area, didn’t even have A/C in the car!

I found it a great option to the Alberta winters. We thought retiring on Vancouver Island would be awesome – that is until we started dealing with horizontal rain in the winter – plus mold and moss on everything.

Funny thing about Parksville/Qualicum, the SFH prices are down since 2010 (as they are in Victoria).

I spent a fair bit of time in/out of hospitals in Victoria for various issues, and was surprised at the large number of older Parksville residents that had to travel there for most surgeries.

BTW we pay about $ 100 CAD a month for each of us for excellent medical coverage plan while in the US, even with my ‘pre-existing’ conditions.

Here is Arizona average pricing is about 40% less overall than Kelowna, so we won’t start getting too concerned until the CAD drops below 60 cents.

Don’t get your hopes up about older Canadians retiring to a place where they have to drove 150 km to get any major medical issues dealt with.

#70 Ontario's Left Coast on 11.06.15 at 8:40 pm

#4 Marco on 11.06.15 at 6:59 pm
I guess there’s a little wet spot on old granny Yellen’s panties. 270K! Lift Off!!!!

Okay, dude, I’ve got a great sense of humour but that’s just gross. :)

#71 Zorba on 11.06.15 at 8:40 pm

Prof. Krugman says :” Do not do it,Yellen”…

#72 Marco on 11.06.15 at 8:41 pm

I realize this is an anonymous blog but #4 Marco is not me.

Thanks Garth,

I have to agree with “Weep for Canada”.

Rates will increase after the election.

Cheers.

#73 Daisy Mae on 11.06.15 at 8:45 pm

#1: “….will always stay how”.

****************

Real clever.

#74 Hank Paulson on 11.06.15 at 8:46 pm

You want to talk about the how the Liberals are for the middle class.

Talk about what Chretien and Martin Liberals did with severance packages can’t be rolled anymore into RRSP’s 1996 and after.

All these laid off workers that are getting tens of thousands of dollars in severance can’t transfer the $2,000 per year of service anymore.

Someone with say working 15 years at Heinz will now have to pay $11,000 in income taxes.

If this is not bad enough, it gets added as income with their wages for that year and are subject to a 30% E.I. clawback over $49,500 of income.

This means that a person earned $50,000 plus $30,000 severance will lose $9,150 in E.I. benefits. More stuff to add on the pile, E.I. was cut by 12 weeks since then so another $5,000 gone there.

Add this all up and $25,150 taken away. Great way to help a middle class worker and now unemployed. Canadians are so misinformed and now they pay for it.

#75 Drill Baby Drill on 11.06.15 at 8:48 pm

The next shoe to drop is when PM Wynne calls in her chits for lending Son of Trudeau her Liberal election machine.

#76 Alberta wing-nuts on 11.06.15 at 8:48 pm

NOPE, not gonna happen… It is easier to get out of an inflation problem than a deflation one, putting the brakes on at just the beginning could do just that, bring it all to a STOP. Besides, If the US raise rates their dollar will shoot to the moon and everybody knows it. “Normalize rates”, what does that even mean when everything we knew as “normal” doesn’t exist anymore. This is the new normal… Low rates…

#77 young & foolish on 11.06.15 at 8:53 pm

People have noticed that the trend in jobs has been of poor quality …. Lower pay with few benefits. Are those the future buyers of expensive real estate? Or will they become permanent renters?

Who will own in the future and under what circumstances?

#78 Ret on 11.06.15 at 8:54 pm

The BoC can take the rate to 0%. The boys in London and New York set the rates for Canadians based on risk and the future value of CDN vs USD. They don’t like getting paid back with funny money.

If anything, all of our interest rates for credit could take a huge jump. Lenders, even Canadian lenders, will not want to lend today and get paid back in devalued Canadian dollars (with respect to the USD) down the road?

Expect a huge sell off in CDN over the next week unless that shiny new cabinet starts to deal with issues other than census forms.

#79 kothar on 11.06.15 at 8:55 pm

At the end of the day it is the consumer themselves to blame. Never mind all the operators involved in allowing them to do so. Only problem is, there are so many that it will affect all of us, even ones that are diversified and not in major debt.

#80 Snowboid on 11.06.15 at 8:56 pm

#42 salonist on 11.06.15 at 7:49 pm…

While I agree that some of the areas VREU mentions aren’t exactly desireable, the point is most Canadian real estate is grossly overpriced by comparison.

We live in a nice, safe community in the NW valley of Phoenix. 1/4 acre lot, 1500 sq ft open concept rancher, with a 600 sq ft 2.5 car garage. A typical early 1990s AZ style home, vaulted 11 ft ceilings, split bedrooms with WIC and ensuites, 20″ tile, all new appliances, heat pump, etc. It’s equivalent to a home in Kelowna that would cost about $ 500K CAD. We paid under $ 120K CAD in 2011, and it’s worth nearly $300K CAD now. So still about 40% less for equivalent homes here in AZ.

Of course it’s still worth about $ 100K US less than the peak prices before the US crash.

****************************************************************************************

#45 SAM on 11.06.15 at 7:50 pm…

You said it, despite it not being as busy here in Phoenix as past years in November, our US neighbours (mainly retired) all have new SUVs, etc. One did just buy a new Lexus!

Housing construction is still active, with giant subdivisions going in near us. Restaurants are still packed, but we still haven’t seen or heard from our Albertan neighbours yet – not sure if it’s related to the economy in AB or not.

#81 bigtowne on 11.06.15 at 8:57 pm

Mr. Poloz knows there is no escape from the FLATTER yield curve. The space ship Canada will not lift off until the banks eat bacon for breakfast. Mr. Poloz is not a vegetarian so his conviction has room for an overhaul.

The good ship LOLLYPOP …I mean Canada is grounded out on some rocks off the coast in the northern reaches of our planet and we need a CAPTAIN. Don’t let us down Mr. Poloz.

#82 Dee on 11.06.15 at 8:58 pm

Bought a bunch of preferreds yesterday morning. Not trying to time the market, just they’d fallen far enough to be out of balance. And now those shares are up 5% in 24 hours… I was happy enough to take their dividends even if prices remained in the gutter, but hey, big dividends and capital appreciation? Can’t lose.

#83 Rainclouds on 11.06.15 at 9:02 pm

#29 American
Dude, lucky you posted so quickly. you likely wont be around to gloat later………………..

List of Countries By Life Expectancy World Health Organization (2013)
1 Japan
2 Spain
2 Andorra
2 Australia
2 Switzerland
2 Italy
2 Singapre
2. San Marino
9 Canada
9 Cyprus
9 France
9 Iceland
9 Israel
9 Luxembourg
9 Monaco
9 New Zealand
9 Norway
9 Sweden

34 United States

#84 Kilby on 11.06.15 at 9:03 pm

Don’t get your hopes up about older Canadians retiring to a place where they have to drove 150 km to get any major medical issues dealt with.

Not getting hopes up as it is already happening. Nanaimo can handle most medical procedures and Comox is getting a new hospital as well. I grew up in Victoria and now at 65 find the place getting a little too crowded, gets nice north of Parksville…..

#85 sean on 11.06.15 at 9:05 pm

I thought preferred shares were similar to bonds in that they pay a fixed interest rate on a par-value. This means that their value “should” fall in a rising rate environment and rise in a falling rate environment.

For example, from: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/06/preferredstock.asp

“If interest rates rise, the value of the preferred shares would need to fall to offer investors a better rate. If rates fall, the opposite would hold true.”

So why are preferreds rising now? I can see how they might have fallen recently whilst rates remained static because buyers ANTICIPATED coming rate hikes, but why a rebound now that a rate hike looks more likely?

Because most are rate resets. Read past posts for clarity. — Garth

#86 SWL1976 on 11.06.15 at 9:08 pm

Well I am well positioned for a rate hike, but will also believe it when I see it. Furthermore, if and when the Fed does raise rates it will be interesting the see the debt clock tick to normalized rates. The Fed have either intentionally or unintentionally painted themselves into a corner and they know it. A rate increase will only add to the already astronomical debt load and perhaps cripple a suspect recovery. Perhaps that has been the plan all along.

From chaos comes order so they say

You know things are sideways when on the world stage the President of Russia looks like a true Statesmen and the President of America lacks credibility. America best pray that the rest of the world doesn’t abandon their admiration for them greenbacks they are liable for 19 plus trillion of. Their bully tactics are wearing thin.

No matter which way we slice it, it is going to be a wild ride…

The stage has been set

#87 White Crock BC on 11.06.15 at 9:09 pm

“…. when the American president announced there will never be a Keystone pipeline to carry Alberta oil to the southern States.

Never? Ever? Really?

#88 Nora Lenderby on 11.06.15 at 9:11 pm

#19 Greg Ellis on 11.06.15 at 7:13 pm
With Ontario having incomprehensible house prices, why have cottage prices languished? Mine is not in Muskoka but it located on the water on the Bruce Peninsula which is increribly beautiful. Yet prices are a way below 2006 levels. Are people tapped out or are cottages a thing of the past?

Probably the one is cause of the other. I don’t have good information, but anecdotally cottage sales nearby in the Thousand Islands are slow.

Mr. T mentioned RV sales falling nearly 30% the other day. Large older used boats are cheap. Several boatyard mates have got screaming bargains (they think). I also just spoke to a beaming tour boat operator who has just picked up a fine 60 passenger vessel (needs work) for very little.

#89 Freedom First on 11.06.15 at 9:16 pm

#29 The American

Yes. You nailed it. Even after the American people got screwed over during the GFC, Canadians learned nothing. However, the screwing that Canadians are, and will be receiving, may make the screwing the Americans received seem less intense. Canadians, and you may find this hard to believe, may be even bigger Dickheads than the Americans. For sure, we both rank right up there with the European and the Japanese. Most human beings are financial Dickheads. Proven throughout history. Few pay attention. Any idiot can see this. I know.

#90 Sheane Wallace on 11.06.15 at 9:21 pm

#30 NextYear

Rate hike in US is a certainty, over 70 % chance of it in my view. It is now or never (watch for gold to go through the roof if never)

loonie will move to .70 range, for now, oil down to 35-40 range, for now, wait for Iran to ramp up production, it will go down to 25.

Ca f…ng housing is done and with it goes the economy.

#91 Sheane Wallace on 11.06.15 at 9:23 pm

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/health/video/everything-old-is-new-again-best-before-date-tampering/vi-CC1NZ7?ocid=mailsignoutmd

#92 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.06.15 at 9:25 pm

#87 White Crock BC on 11.06.15 at 9:09 pm
“…. when the American president announced there will never be a Keystone pipeline to carry Alberta oil to the southern States.

Never? Ever? Really?
—————————————–
It will get built just not under this administration! It will get built just like Smoking Man goes to a Casino every weekend! You can bank on it!

#93 Sheane Wallace on 11.06.15 at 9:26 pm

#89 Freedom First

We Canadians, are way nicer and much more stupid than the Japanese and the Europeans. We will never forget to say: Thank You while being screwed.

#94 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.06.15 at 9:27 pm

A lot of house horny Americans here in the Bahamas! They buy up everything! I guess we are very similar.

#95 Washed Up Lawyer on 11.06.15 at 9:30 pm

The CREB is coming off the ropes to throw a few jabs at Hon. GT after the heroic pummeling he gave them when reporting on the Priddis nouveau situation this week.

The first shot from CREB is to point out that sales activity for $3 MM homes in Rocky View County (basically surrounds Cowtown) have hit a record level.

Yup, reducing the list price of a $6 MM home by ½ will spur some activity.

“Calgary’s luxury home market has been hit hard this year due to a slumping economy but deep discounts have also spurred activity in the Rocky View County area to a record level for homes in the $3-million plus category.”

And:

“Another example of how the market has changed was on Friday when Starnes listed a home in the Church Ranches area of Bearspaw for $3.29 million. It was originally listed for sale in 2009 for $6.75 million.”

http://calgaryherald.com/business/real-estate/record-housing-sales-over-3-million-this-year-in-rocky-view-county

#96 westsider on 11.06.15 at 9:32 pm

Got my financial advisor to buy preferred on your comments. We bought at the bottom and they are up 8 percent in 2 days. You’re the man!!!!

#97 conan on 11.06.15 at 9:37 pm

We have been trying to close on Keystone for 7 years. In that time the Americans have built 7 Keystone type pipelines.

This pipeline is not so much about the environment as it is about eminent domain.

People in the way of this pipeline refused to accept that they had to sell their private land to government who in turn would sell it back to another private interest.

I still think interest rates will stay how.

#98 BS on 11.06.15 at 9:40 pm

Is that trigger the Fed’s first rate hike in a decade? The collapse in oil? A tumbling dollar? The surge in bond yields and mortgage costs? The death of Keystone? Alberta houses auctioned for 60% off? A swelling, unrepayable pile of debt? Families caving after one missed paycheque or a $500 mortgage pop?

If any of those are the triggers it is going to be a long 4 years for Trudeau and the misfits he appointed to cabinet.

#99 Albertan & Canadian on 11.06.15 at 9:45 pm

The Keystone rejection has been telegraphed for years.

In hindsight, it is the best thing that’s happened to the Canadian oil sector in a long time.

I think all Canadians now know the importance of supporting a sustainable petroleum export industry for the entire Canadian economy.

Being almost entirely dependent on one customer (the US) was a disaster. Diversification right?

Now, it will become a national priority to get Canadian crude to tidewater and give the Europeans and Asians access to our safe and consistent supply.

This may be have been the easy route to continue our self dependence on an existing customer, but it will probably turn out to be the best thing to happen to our petroleum resources for the long haul.

This short term setback will turn into long term opportunity.

#100 common sense on 11.06.15 at 9:51 pm

#88 Nora

Best 2 days of boat ownership…

The day you buy it and the day you sell it.

#101 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 11.06.15 at 9:52 pm

Yup, we’re due. But not before one more BIG push.

Seeing a lot more foreclosures BTW for whatever that’s worth.

Buyers will scramble to get in on the last of these ultra-low rates. That’ll push up volume and then prices will follow. Then… of course… we’re due.

SHIFT happens, always has, always will.

#102 Randy on 11.06.15 at 9:58 pm

Don’t worry…about the Canadian Economy…Canada’s Shadow Government – Power Corp is already working on deals with China’s adviser Maurice Strong.

#103 Millmech on 11.06.15 at 9:58 pm

#93
Actually as polite Canadians we usually say”you can add more sand to the Vaseline”

#104 Doomer Gloomer on 11.06.15 at 9:58 pm

I think you are only allowed to cry interest rate going up wolf 3 times. You are going on 20 right now. Do you really want a 21 on Dec 16th?

At least, can you admit that you’ve lost ALL credibility on this issue if I am right and you are wrong on Dec 16th?

Cheers!

#105 Albertan & Canadian on 11.06.15 at 10:04 pm

Priddis is 40 kilometers from the center of Calgary. In minutes, that means a 1 & 1/2 hour commute to the downtown core twice per day. Have you witnessed the traffic in Calgary lately?

The houses are nice and stately. But, the propery taxes, upkeep, utilities, cost of commuting and time wasted were more of a factor in a 60% discount than the downturn in executive oil industry jobs was.

#106 saskatoon on 11.06.15 at 10:22 pm

US job numbers breakdown:

ALL jobs gains went to people OVER 55
between 24-55, 35,000 jobs were lost
men between 24-55, 119,000 jobs were lost
no manufacturing jobs gained
lost mining and logging jobs
lost jobs in transportation

how is it possible garth still thinks this is a “done deal”?

#107 Vanman on 11.06.15 at 10:26 pm

#105 Albertan & Canadian

“The houses are nice and stately. But, the propery taxes, upkeep, utilities, cost of commuting and time wasted were more of a factor in a 60% discount than the downturn in executive oil industry jobs was.”
…………………..
Not too long ago, some developer started developing huge estate properties in Lions Bay. They were close to the ocean with superb view, on a golf course and in the middle of Sea To Sky country. The homes were some of the more expensive properties around Vancouver.

They also went the way of Priddis. When people discovered that living there was a hassle and in the middle of nowhere, the values tumbled.

It had little do with the local economy.

#108 VB on 11.06.15 at 10:32 pm

ya rate resets! some have a long way to climb as rates rise.. happy friday!

#109 ANON on 11.06.15 at 10:38 pm

Won’t be old ladies, instead people waking up, looking at the granite and asking, ‘what have I done?’ will start the unavoidable hangover. This party’s been so wild, even the most sober are deeply inebriated from the fumes, they just don’t realize it yet.
Cheers!

#110 Smoking Man on 11.06.15 at 10:40 pm

Back in Long Branch.

Joy o bliss..

I LOVE BOSTON.

#111 CalgaryCarGuy on 11.06.15 at 10:41 pm

Re #105 by Albertan and Canadian
“Priddis is 40 kilometers from the center of Calgary. In minutes, that means a 1 & 1/2 hour commute to the downtown core twice per day. Have you witnessed the traffic in Calgary lately?”
——————————————————————
Although I live closer to Bragg Creek I have a Priddis address. I’m the guy who posted about living in a motor-coach west of Calgary. I commute to the Calgary Auto Mall at Glenmore and Deerfoot. 50 k. It takes me 35 minutes in and 45 minutes out during somewhat off hours. It is an easy commute on excellent roads. The commute is very much worth it to live out of the city in these gorgeous foothills next to the mountains. The Priddis and Bragg Creek areas southwest of Calgary are undoubtedly the most expensive areas to buy land in proximity to Calgary and for very good reason. I feel very lucky to live out here for as cheap as I do.

#112 tundra pete on 11.06.15 at 10:43 pm

Imagine rates going up. Who would of thought of that? They are supposed to stay low forever. Right? We always have emergency interest rates normally, right?

It will be okay because now we have that new government. We will just have to get hold of that person whos job is to keep the rates low. Right? Isnt it that new guy? You know. What’s his face? They won’t put up with it. They will feel sorry for us. Right?? If the bank knew it was going to happen, they shouldn’t have made us sign it right?

#113 Rational Optimist on 11.06.15 at 10:46 pm

We sure are silly to have elected a government promising to run big deficits while the U.S. is rockin’ and about to send our cost of borrowing up…

#114 Smoking Man on 11.06.15 at 10:52 pm

#94 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.06.15 at 9:27 pm
A lot of house horny Americans here in the Bahamas! They buy up everything! I guess we are very similar.
…..

Love the way you Yanks to business.. pros all the way.
Even parking the plane at YYZ tonight. Communism stench in the air. Long delay for ramp attendeds, then a huge maze of turns and twists to get out side for my smoke.

Once there, dirty glances and cut eye from all the commies.

got to figure out a way to leave for good before its to late.

God Bless America….

#115 Deviled Eggshells on 11.06.15 at 10:54 pm

#166 Dee on 11.06.15 at 11:30 am
“US adds 271,000 jobs, making Feb hike done deal.”

Wait, I thought we were still expecting December? I mean, I agree it’s very definitely coming, but I’m curious why expectations got pushed back again…

“Fed”, not “Feb.” — Garth…

I hope Dee is not a trader…I could see him wiping out a small fortune by mistaking a + for -.

The devil is in the detail…

#116 diolch yn fawr on 11.06.15 at 10:57 pm

Strike up the orchestra and play a Scottish lament oh sorry in keeping with the times maybe the Punjabby Blues Sunny days are here again

#117 Deviled Eggshells on 11.06.15 at 10:58 pm

Mark must be smarting about the loonie these days……

#118 diolch yn fawr on 11.06.15 at 11:08 pm

Ask yourself this question: Can the USA restart the world economy ? . Say a pray for the children a new socialism is beginning . When we were young it was known as family and community as imperfect as it was it was more honest .

#119 Kenchie on 11.06.15 at 11:12 pm

Garth,

I found it very hard to hold my glee in this morning as I told colleagues in the office about the US Jobs report. Two of my colleagues that I interrupted, one is currently rebuilding a house and is pickled in debt. He literally swung his chair around immediately and asked “Did it beat expectations?”. My response was “5-year bond is up 7 bps in a couple of minutes, so probably”. He responded saying “oh, that’s bad timing…”

Lol

#120 Kenchie on 11.06.15 at 11:14 pm

And the other colleague I interrupted bought a house in Kleinburg last year for about $600k (with wife, so they’re DINKs) with a 4-year mortgage. So he’s going to learn the lesson earlier than others who bought this year with 5-year terms.

#121 Smoking Man on 11.06.15 at 11:17 pm

One thing I finaly realize, Entuepuner never retires.

Something about, plan, execution, problems, problem’s soloved, success. $$$$$

The commies never welcome challenge, frightened of it. Content to do meaningless tasks, tosed a bone while hating those that feed them. Refusing to learn from the master, making changes and making their shit life better.

Of course the want to retire..

Ill never retire.. even though I can..

#122 paul a on 11.06.15 at 11:28 pm

wow overload of info, well at least stayed sensible .took your advice,rented,stuffed the tfsa to the max.paid off all debt,diversified investments.we shall see what happens in the end game,have faith,thanks for the guidance.

#123 Kenchie on 11.06.15 at 11:28 pm

#19 Greg Ellis on 11.06.15 at 7:13 pm
“With Ontario having incomprehensible house prices, why have cottage prices languished? Mine is not in Muskoka but it located on the water on the Bruce Peninsula which is increribly beautiful. Yet prices are a way below 2006 levels. Are people tapped out or are cottages a thing of the past?”

It’s because of the lack of disposable income to spend on discretionary luxury items. The lack of disposable income in the Canadian economy is becoming apparent. Just look at Canucks games, they barely fill up nowadays. Toronto, despite its legions fans, is seeing secondary market prices fall quite a bit. Just got quoted today that lower-bowl tix that have a face value of $446 per ticket now has an ask of $200 per ticket. At least for tonight’s Red Wings/Leafs game.

That said, recreational property isn’t an “investment”. It’s for recreational activities for the family. Unless you’re in the business of renting it out year-round.

#124 diolch yn fawr on 11.06.15 at 11:31 pm

I live in sticks and I have grade 6 . And we are poor. Teeth don’t get fixed and we don’t take trips. We are the new indigenous except without land claims or gov’t help. No French do we speak and no repression can we claim No CBC do we watch. We are the unwashed and the ignorant

#125 X on 11.06.15 at 11:34 pm

“Is that trigger the Fed’s first rate hike in a decade? The collapse in oil? A tumbling dollar? The surge in bond yields and mortgage costs? The death of Keystone? Alberta houses auctioned for 60% off? A swelling, unrepayable pile of debt? Families caving after one missed paycheque or a $500 mortgage pop?”

You forgot to add the proposed new double house transfer tax in Ontario. Only gov’t could have such great timing to consider implementing such a tax.

#126 Kenchie on 11.06.15 at 11:36 pm

#20 likeyouknow,whatever on 11.06.15 at 7:15 pm
“In respect to the gospel that is Greaterfool, I am agnostic. I will believe it when I see it (a major correction in 604)”

You will never ever see it by reading the mainstream media. Furthermore, the 604 is a large area. It may not happen in the West End or even West Van. So don’t bother looking there. Look to the extremities (Langley, Maple Ridge, Pitt Meadows, Poco, etc). And it won’t be easy without seeing the actual sales price of houses in the neighbourhoods you’re observing. I suggest you pick your neighbourhood and excel export all the sales comparables to your house from BC Assessment’s website for this year, and compare it next year’s sale comparison and the following years’, etc. Unless you have some realtor connection that allows you to see previous listing prices.

#127 Kenchie on 11.06.15 at 11:40 pm

#26 Cloudy on 11.06.15 at 7:25 pm
“When the Fed begins raising rates, it will cause bond yields to rise and that will affect the Canadian Bond Market too, correct? I read a few economists views that this will cause enough tightening on its own to allow Canada to maintain emergency rates for longer even as the Fed maintains steady increases. Is there any likelihood of this happening or will we follow suit with increases? How long can we hold off until we begin to raise rates as well?”

If US rates rise faster than Canada’s, the CADUSD will fall to sub-70 cents levels, similar to late 90s/early 2000s. This will have a large impact on imported goods’ prices, thus pushing up inflation quite quickly. As a result, the Bank of Canada will have to react to this inflation by law (unless the Libs change it) to keep the inflation within it’s target.

Either way, it’s not in Canada’s control to be too independent of the Fed.

#128 Kenchie on 11.06.15 at 11:43 pm

#30 NextYear on 11.06.15 at 7:29 pm
“No Rate hike in December Garth, when will you finally accept this is a big bluff.

Incessantly talking about raising rate in a near future is their way to do some kind of tightening without actually raising the rates.

So far it is working, it has almost everyone fooled!!! For how long now have we had Rate hikes just around the corner?”

It’s eerie how similar this who saga of Fed hike/no-hike for years is to the story of the Boy Who Cried Wolf.

Here’s a reminder of the story…

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boy_Who_Cried_Wolf

I’m sure most people remember from their childhood how it ends…

#129 NoName on 11.06.15 at 11:43 pm

off topic

but interesting read
http://datagenetics.com/blog/october32015/index.html

In 1996 GM recalled 470,000 vehicles.
“The engine management enriched the engine’s fuel mixture, increasing carbon monoxide (CO) and unburned hydrocarbon (HC) pollution, any time the car’s air conditioning or heater was turned on, since the emissions testing protocol specified they need to be off for the test.”
In 1998, Honda Motor Company disabling of the misfire monitoring device on 1.6 million 1996 and 1997 model year vehicles.
same year 70k Ford Econoline vans to keep emissions low during the 20-minute EPA test routine, and then disabling the emissions controls during normal highway cruising.
1998, Caterpillar Inc., Cummins Engine Company, Detroit Diesel Corporation, Mack Trucks, Navistar International, Renault Vehicules Industriels, and Volvo Trucks, paid out fines of $83.4 million, for, in the same manner as Volkswagen, programming trucks to keep NOx emissions low during the test cycle, and then disabling these controls outside the test.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal
(cars afected in usa 500k)

#130 Albertan and Canadian on 11.06.15 at 11:46 pm

#111 CalgaryCarGuy

Exactly 45 minutes in off hours to the Calgary Automall translates to 1 1/2 hours to the downtown core especially when the weather is inclement – much of the time in Calgary.

#131 Tony on 11.06.15 at 11:47 pm

Home Capital Group Inc down 3 cents today.

#132 45north on 11.06.15 at 11:53 pm

condo surplus in Ottawa:

That’s bad news for existing condo owners because it could bring further price drops in a market that has already seen three years of decreases — 5.6 per cent in 2013, 7.3 per cent in 2014 and one per cent so far this year — even as prices have been rising in the residential, or non-condo, category.

http://ottawacitizen.com/business/local-business/condo-surplus-a-threat-to-health-of-ottawa-housing-market-cmhc

#133 Doug in London on 11.06.15 at 11:57 pm

Interest rates going up in the USA? No, it can’t be true, according to the comments in the steerage section of this blog for the last 3 months or more. So who are the “experts” here in the steerage section who said rates will never go up? The same “experts” who said the US Fed would never taper and eventually end quantitative easing 2 years ago.

#134 Kenchie on 11.06.15 at 11:59 pm

#43 Jeffrey Green on 11.06.15 at 7:49 pm
“Love the blog still but you’re wrong, no increase in rates. Will be revised downward job numbers. Look at the jobs created, crappy. Welcome Walmart Greeters.”

And what happens if you’re wrong?

I asked my mum about when my parents bought their first house in 1985 if they ever thought they’d see mortgage rates below 3%. Unsurprisingly, she said “No, I never thought back then I’d see that day”.

Now, maybe in 30 years you’ll be like those Baby Boomers who bought in the 1980s looking back to this period and saying “No, I never thought I’d see 5% mortgage rates again”.

The sad thing is that’s not even a big leap – from 2.5% to 5%.

Funnily enough, I just renewed at 2.59% on Oct 4th. My buddy renewed for 5 years yesterday at 2.64% (which he worked down from 2.69%), despite his leverage being significantly smaller than mine and him being in a DINK relationship with +$200k income (with bonus).

PS: relax folks, my mortgage is small and my monthly savings ratio will still be north of 50% if it is ever vacant for a month (that includes prop tax, strata and insurance payments).

#135 Smoking Man on 11.07.15 at 12:05 am

Obama chucks Keystone.

America will chuck the Democrats.

Go Trump Go.

#136 45north on 11.07.15 at 12:07 am

Greg Ellis: With Ontario having incomprehensible house prices, why have cottage prices languished? Mine is not in Muskoka but it located on the water on the Bruce Peninsula which is incredibly beautiful. Yet prices are a way below 2006 levels. Are people tapped out or are cottages a thing of the past?

you mean with Toronto having incomprehensible prices. Yes it looks like people are tapped out. And yes cottages have had their heyday.

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/heyday

The 1960’s, cottages were an expression of success in the big city, the men and the women who had fought in the Second World War drove up to the cottage. I can still see it.

#137 Kenchie on 11.07.15 at 12:24 am

#76 Alberta wing-nuts on 11.06.15 at 8:48 pm
“NOPE, not gonna happen… It is easier to get out of an inflation problem than a deflation one, putting the brakes on at just the beginning could do just that, bring it all to a STOP. Besides, If the US raise rates their dollar will shoot to the moon and everybody knows it. “Normalize rates”, what does that even mean when everything we knew as “normal” doesn’t exist anymore. This is the new normal… Low rates…”

Because you’re so much smarter than these guys… right?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-06/here-s-who-is-and-isn-t-changing-their-timeline-for-the-first-fed-hike

#138 45north on 11.07.15 at 12:27 am

Rational Optimist: We sure are silly

we sure are

beer store: I’m taking back my empties to the beer store (in Ottawa, Bank Street south of Walkley) – I’m down to 4 bottles of Beck “sans alcool”. Outside there is a crew with yellow gloves. I make eye contact. The man asks me if I want to donate my empties to leukemia research. I say “sure – I’m glad that I don’t have leukemia”. He says “you sure are”.

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2013/05/26/junkies/#comment-243727

#139 Smoking Man on 11.07.15 at 12:52 am

Everyone worrying about a rate hike, when thermo nukes are getting primed.

O well, no one is me, not all can see, I’m a poet and don’t know it.

Lets face it, NutAndYahoo and his closet men run the show on this side of the Atlantic..

Read art of war…please read it now.

Putin has it memorized..

#140 Riding the Pine on 11.07.15 at 12:54 am

Really!? She said “it all but insures that the Federal Reserve will hike rates for the first time in a decade…”
She must be ESL along with any other grammar challenged reader that thinks Yellen indicated a strong possibility of raising rates. Read the language carefully. She’ll have no problem pointing to her words, after the fact of no rate hike, and say I told you so….it was only ever a possibilty, that’s all.

Remember when the fed said that the target rate of 6.5% unemployment was the marker for an increase? We’re at 5.1 and still no increase. It will be another excuse again in December as they kick the can down the road. Doesn’t mean mortgage rates here won’t rise though.

#141 chanman on 11.07.15 at 1:10 am

Hey Garth, horny people the world over. You might want to check out Sweden for another example of other horny northern schmucks

http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21677671-house-prices-sweden-continue-soar-regulators-despair-home-where?fsrc=scn/fb/te/pe/ed/homeiswheretheheartacheis

#142 For those about to flop... on 11.07.15 at 1:12 am

One of the things that has bothered me since I found this blog is the amount of people that come here to tell Garth he was/ is wrong about rate hikes and the like.
I don’t feel the need to stick up for the guy as he is big enough and ugly enough to stick up for himself but remember this, how much more boring would this blog be if he never made any predictions or recommendations.
Sure the guy is wrong occasionally but he has a financial IQ most of us can only dream of and must be given a decent amount of respect when he predicts what is about to happen.
There are plenty of other blogs out there that have zero humour and make zero predictions and that’s great when you want straight facts but I find this format way more entertaining.
Garth has not earned me one red cent since I have been coming here but he has enhanced my financial knowledge and one day I might be in a position to take advantage of this.
I will make my own prediction now ,you guys will keep coming back too.

#143 Kinkalgary on 11.07.15 at 1:15 am

Fourth, since commodities are traded in US$, prices slumped. Oil was hit again, falling almost 1.5% to the $44 range. This happened on a bad day – when the American president announced there will never be a Keystone pipeline to carry Alberta oil to the southern States. It was a big win for the environmentalists who decry ‘dirty’ and energy-sucking Canadian oil, and another punch in Alberta’s gut.
Well guess what they will just keep moving it by rail, how’s that for decreasing your carbon foot print – it’s all political bullshit and whoever can’t see that should try living their daily lives without oil or oil related products.

#144 Monday on 11.07.15 at 1:19 am

Monday please check ratehub and ratesupermarket for the rate hike confirmation! Nobody here will mock mr. Turner. Except foreign investors that buy houses in Surrey lol

#145 Bram on 11.07.15 at 1:38 am

604 home owner here, who bought in 2013.
If cbc’s news item on +47.7% median price in 2 yrs (for east-vancouver) is true, I am not too worried.
If prices crash to half, I’m just back at where I started, no big deal. It helps that my equity is large.

Also, every year, there are fewer detached houses here, because many houses get replaced with high-rise. So yeah, a crash will come at some point, but it will probably be a soft landing in Vancouver.

#146 Smoking Man on 11.07.15 at 1:44 am

The art of life.

Give no shit..Say it like you see it. let the the cards play out..Whether your right or wrong is not important.

If you lose, at leased you had fun..If you win.No.big deal.

Only a gambler will understand this.

#147 cynically on 11.07.15 at 1:49 am

#62 —– know it all ignorance!!!

#148 Panhead on 11.07.15 at 1:56 am

Have a bud that used to have a cottage. Whenever anyone went to visit him we all ended up working on it. Never really got to enjoy it. Four hour drive each way too. People don’t have the money or time to invest in that kind of pleasure anymore. Life is WAY too hectic these days, sad as we will never see it like that again … but then those that never did see it won’t miss it I guess.

#149 juno on 11.07.15 at 2:14 am

One thing to note. Trudeau has just taken over

They are going through the numbers and any idiot can see harper has been playing a shell game.

The numbers are terrible. The Liberals WILL NOT WANT TO WEAR THIS… So they will do exactly what Obama did when he took over… Hey guys the numbers are bad, we are in trouble….. Cant give you what you ask for because the conservitives left one hell of a mess

Let the Markets rebalance. blame the conservitives so they can start from a clean slate and not be the ones to be blame for the mess Harper left.

So get ready for some terrible news the next few months and we should see the markets overshoot equilibrium and then find its way back to a normal state

#150 liquidincalgary on 11.07.15 at 2:16 am

#38 Randy on 11.06.15 at 7:42 pm

Trudeau Liberals Launch National Energy Program Phase 2.

============================================

yes, more colloquially known as “a carbon tax”

#151 juno on 11.07.15 at 2:20 am

125 X…

No Canadian Rate Hike, but the bond market will force mortgages slowly up.

The US will be hiking,

The loonie will tumber to 72 cents.

When Trudeau start to need money to fulfil his spending promises, That will be interesting, especially if he cannot see Saving bond to raise capital. Mabey try to do a QE , and slaughter the loonie.

Too bad so sad, Glad Im diversified into the US markets in USD

#152 Cici on 11.07.15 at 2:21 am

“Or simply people waking up, looking at the granite and asking, ‘what have I done?’

Same as it ever was, same as it ever was…

#153 David on 11.07.15 at 2:29 am

Obama’s decision to not grant the Presidential permit for the KXL truly came as a big surprise no matter side of the fence people were aligned with. Obama has been kicking the can down the road for several years, but the decision was his alone. Alberta looks to have a large number of orphaned assets that will not be sending any discounted bitumen to Port Arthur Texas probably forever, as it stands now.

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/a_presidential_decision_that_could_change_the_world_20130212

A healthy skepticism about US job numbers is in order, more so if it becomes the impetus for interest rate changes.

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2015/11/06/another-phony-payroll-jobs-number-paul-craig-roberts/

#154 Riding the Pine on 11.07.15 at 3:06 am

A great documentary on the history of world economics and where we’re headed. A real eye opener for the blind, and some great solutions to a system that simply doesn’t work.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5fbvquHSPJU

#155 Jobs News Great, Interest Rate Hike...We Will be Fine on 11.07.15 at 3:24 am

As long as there are jobs, people will be fine even with a mortgage rate hike (for the exception of poor Alberta, for now and until oil recovers).

Historically, rates will not go up that fast in a short period of time and enough to make people sell quickly/walk away from their homes which is what bursts RE bubbles in a short period of time.

To make that happen, another large or a few large enough economic shocks will have occur to hurt the economy and job creation.

Not everyone will have to renegotiate rates in a few months time. The hurt (as in lower RE prices) will be slow and gradual with no huge burst bubble.

Alberta’s burst bubble was fast as their economy was devastated in a short period of time, but large million dollar properties aside, 6 months after the oil price drop, RE prices overall have not plummeted by 20 to 40% which is a true burst RE bubble.

BTW, one of your best written articles G. Enjoyed reading it.

#156 Frank on 11.07.15 at 3:39 am

A correction in earnings has already started. Here are my updated Canada wide earnings charts:

http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html

And these data have a 2 month lag.

Dude, you you throw every stat possible on a chart? They’re barely readable

http://blog.hubspot.com/marketing/excel-graph-tricks-list

Your charts are the graphical equivalent of a drunk on the street shouting everything he can at once. Sure it makes sense but when it comes at you so fast it’s an overload and most people just turn away.

#157 Charles Ponzi on 11.07.15 at 3:39 am

This U.S. earnings season is on track to be the worst since 2009 as profits from oil & gas and commodity-related companies plummet.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-04/this-is-the-worst-u-s-earnings-season-since-2009

#158 Charles Ponzi on 11.07.15 at 3:42 am

The U.S. trade deficit in manufacturing hit a record $74.7 billion in September.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-04/u-s-posts-a-record-deficit-in-manufacturing-trade

#159 jane 24 on 11.07.15 at 4:13 am

The problem with the cottage lifestyle is that it depended on the parents and children having every weekend free and this just doesn’t happen today. It also depended on the Mother being free all summer to take the kids up to the cottage while dad worked in the city and joined them on the weekends and this doesn’t happen either today. Must have been nice.

If a cottage is only going to be used for two weeks a year then it makes sense to rent one rather than be stuck oneself with a year of maintenance and bills for your own place.

Kids today need 24 hour wifi and cell phones.

Why go to the same place every holiday. If you want a movie star cottage for peanuts on great lakes with all modern toys, places like Slovakia are cheaper.

A lot of cottages out there have not been improved for years and are reverting to real cottages.

The world has just changed and cottages are often a liability rather than an asset

but

if Garth’s forecasts do come to pass, in the biblical sense, then cottages will be one of the first places that cash strapped folk will try to flog to raise money to keep the city house going. In other words sadly cottage prices are going down. Now.

#160 Sam the Sham on 11.07.15 at 8:16 am

Janet Yellen with her continuous promises of rate hikes is like the cartoon character Lucy with the football. We are all like Charlie Brown. He keeps trying to kick the football, and she pulls it away at the last minute. We all believe Yellen and every time she pulls away the rate hike at the last minute. You’d think Charlie Brown and the rest of us would wise up!

#161 maxx on 11.07.15 at 8:22 am

“What’s next? “A major correction,” he says. “As we have long argued, the trigger that eventually bursts Canada’s housing bubble is irrelevant and will only be known after the fact.””

The doubling of the welcome tax will continue to spread and is simply governments pricing in large, and perhaps huge drops in re valuations, thereby stabilizing buy-side tax inflows.

The screaming and yowling for tax reductions following lower assessments will do little good. Stonewalling and fiddling with rates will take care of the annual inflows.

#162 Rational Optimist on 11.07.15 at 9:09 am

138 45north on 11.07.15 at 12:27 am

“Outside [of the Beer Store] there is a crew with yellow gloves. I make eye contact.”

This reminds me: At the Beer Store in my neck of the woods, we only have the leukemia drive once a year. But we do have recyclers (most people call them bums- down in Bogota the slang term for people who do this for a living is ‘zorras’). The last few weeks, I have noticed a guy out and about with the usual shopping cart, peaking into garbage cans. But he’s different: he wears an outfit like a nurse’s scrubs, with long yellow gloves. I now see him at the Beer Store sorting out in the alley several times a week.

I wonder if his business will suffer when my neighbours start finding the hassle worth the $2.40. Until then, though, he’s doing pretty well.

#163 jerry on 11.07.15 at 9:18 am

I think that China has now passed Canada as the USA number one trading partner.

This can’t be good either.

#164 BobC on 11.07.15 at 9:57 am

At the risk of being labeled a “doomer” I can only shake my head in disbelief that anyone can look at our employment numbers, past the headlines, and consider them good. Unbelievable.

#165 TurnerNation on 11.07.15 at 10:28 am

Smoking man you dislike Wynn but like casinos?
WYNN.US is a great trading stock.

#166 TurnerNation on 11.07.15 at 10:39 am

I was looking at a high end men’s casual shirt (3 figure price) the other day – I’d not buy unless on sale for 2 fig – and noticed its label says made in Myanmar.

Myanmar (aka occupied Burma)….was in the news a few years ago, we were told of its VeryBadMen military Junta after a typhoon. This, as US warships were stationed outside of it.
Wait were those warships keeping people in or out?
Our captive sweatshop slave colony.

(“You are free to leave at any time”). Coming soon my fellow tax farm slaves. From cubicle to cuticle, their work will cut deeply.

#167 TurnerNation on 11.07.15 at 10:42 am

Danier’s stock price is at a very low $2.50. Dividend is history. Their leather jackets state: Make in Pakistan. Low loonie cannot be helping. Keep waving that flag for OurWayofLife.

#168 economictsunami on 11.07.15 at 10:45 am

When you say it out loud, this is how it sounds:

After 7 years of ZIRP, several incarnations of $4T worth of QE and finally it appears the Fed is poised for a measly 1/4 pt rise in rates.

Not exactly inspiring considering how long in the tooth the business cycle has become. Or has the all omnipotent Fed conquered the business cycle?

The Jobs Report headline number of 271K invoked initial giddiness, until you checked out under the hood and observed the engine is 55 years old.

That’s right, the overwhelming amount of jobs went to those poor souls 55 and over. Weren’t these people retiring and this was the reason given for the falling participation rate?

This realization pours cold water on the main driver of consumer – centric domestic economy’s; household formation.

If the Fed does raise, how much longer before the next round of QE?

Of course, totally due to external/ unforeseen circumstances…

(Never an endorsement but Roberts always has a list of interesting reads every weekend.)

Weekend Reading: Copious Contemplations:

http://streettalklive.com/index.php/blog.html?id=2966

The Fed has no intention of raising rates a quarter point and stopping. This will begin a tightening cycle lasting several years – precisely the reason policymakers were so overly cautious about when to begin. — Garth

#169 common sense on 11.07.15 at 10:47 am

Garth:

Can you please do an article about how demographics will negatively effect housing of all forms in the next few decades until the large baby boom generation rolls over and a new crop of youngsters with money (!!!???) comes around to buy again?

I’ve been telling everyone my age – 55 to not even think of buying a vacation place south as they will be on a fire sale sooner than later and for the next 20 years at least.

#170 Smoking Man on 11.07.15 at 10:52 am

Nice..

Larry King going back on the air..

For RT.. wonder if McClain will ever be interviewed.

#171 Greg on 11.07.15 at 10:57 am

Hi #135,139 Smoking Man,

I wonder how much influence in President Obama cancelation timing of the pipeline has to do with Trudeau telling him he was going to remove Canada’s “token” (in comparison) fighter jet contribution in their first phone talk after the election and before his swearing in to be the PM?

As for thermo nukes don’t fret too much about them because if they are insane enough to cross that line (and yes some may be, hopefully the cooler head will prevail), we all lose!

This 1 min 37 sec trailer version is kind of racy.
Dr. Strangelove trailer, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gXY3kuDvSU

Maybe if the insane people in the war room were doing more “token” maybe we wouldn’t need to worry about them fighting?? (some special brownies on the food table in the war room might help lead to more loving instead of more killing?) Dr. Strangelove (2/8) Movie CLIP – No Fighting in the War Room (1964),
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WI5B7jLWZUc

There seems to be many truths touched a pond and based on facts in the Dr. Strangelove movie, and without saying more I now understand the message of, Dr. Strangelove (4/8)Movie CLIP – Water and Commies (1964).
For, Dr. Strangelove (1964) Full movie, (1:52:00) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rej09EBrXtQ

Hi #97 conan,

Thanks for the info about the other new pipelines and land issue. Yes they surely are a bigger consideration in the Obama pipeline cancelation.
And the timing often has a political angle, removing our fighter jets maybe?

There was that softwood lumber issue that didn’t work out very well for Canada (PM Harper) either.

#172 Nora Lenderby on 11.07.15 at 11:00 am

#171 Panhead on 11.05.15 at 12:47 pm
#158 Sonny on 11.05.15 at 10:27 am
“Telus to cut 1,500 jobs but hike dividend 10%”
Ah yeah, good old Telus…Somebody should invent an App that sends voltage down a phone line … if you know what I mean …

I have an idea that would be better than this (I once worked on SS7 billing software, for my sins).

At the end of every unsolicited phone call, or in every unsolicited email, would be an opportunity for you, the spammee, to charge the spammer a fee.

Automatically credited to your bill (phone or ISP) and deducted tfrom theirs.

A small matter of regulatory and international approval (ITU, FTC, CRTC etc.) but perfectly simple technically.

It would make them a lot more polite to say the least :-]

#173 NoName on 11.07.15 at 11:01 am

@#44 robert james

Alberta has only one problem it is landlocked, so basicly anything they wont to export or import is an average a week delayed vs similar province with access to ports sea.

http://www.unmillenniumproject.org/documents/JHD051P003TP.pdf
“In 1776, Adam Smith observed that the inland parts of Africa and Asia were the least economically developed areas of the world. Two hundred and twenty-six years later, the Human Development Report 2002 still painted a stark picture for most of the world’s landlocked countries. Nine of the twelve countries with the lowest Human Development Index scores are landlocked,
thirteen landlocked countries are classified as ‘low human development’ and not one of the non-European landlocked countries is classified as ‘high
human development’.”

#174 Nora Lenderby on 11.07.15 at 11:05 am

#192 jess on 11.05.15 at 4:35 pm
huh? The pyramids were built by aliens?
Dr Ben Carson 1998 graduation key note speaker..

Sigh. I have to stop saying “Not a brain surgeon” referring to a person of confused or diminished intellect?

People are amazing.

#175 Nora Lenderby on 11.07.15 at 11:23 am

#62 RayofLight on 11.06.15 at 8:24 pm
Pres. Obama’s cancellation of the Keystone pipeline is a low political blow to Canada. At the same time as China’s use of coal was purposely under stated by 20%, (and they get a pass), and the oil pipeline constructed in the states was 10 times the Keystone in length over the deferred review time, the motive for Pres. Obama’s decision was not “to protect the environment”, but to enhance his personal finances by salvaging his legacy. Yes Pres. Obama is green, he is green with envy of Bill’s lecture fees and he wants a piece of this financial action post presidency. Pres. Obama is blatantly catering to the wealthy progressive liberal tree huggers, and is counting on them the pay substantial follower lecture fees. This decision had nothing to do about the environment. Pres.Obama’s legacy, in retrospect, will be he will make G.W. look good.

Well, my little Ray of Sunshine, you just demonstrated that you are not following current affairs. Climate change is the Next Big Thing as far as the world is concerned (regardless of what you or I think of it).

Mr. Obama has no need to enhance his future worth for the “lecture circuit”; he has always had what is called “star quality” or charisma. If you have listened to him speak, you’ll understand that people will pay to be inspired and to feel good. There are some things more compelling than money :-)

#176 Nora Lenderby on 11.07.15 at 11:25 am

#81 bigtowne on 11.06.15 at 8:57 pm
Mr. Poloz knows there is no escape from the FLATTER yield curve…The good ship LOLLYPOP…I mean Canada is grounded out on some rocks off the coast in the northern reaches of our planet and we need a CAPTAIN. Don’t let us down Mr. Poloz.

Arrrr! Them’s that die, they be the lucky ones!!

Avast behind!

#177 Carlo on 11.07.15 at 11:27 am

As per Peter Schiff. “Just because a rate hike is a possibility doesn’t mean it’s going to happen. It’s been a possibility all year. People thought it was possible they were going to raise rates in March. They didn’t. They thought it was possible they’d do it in June, September. Some people thought they might have raise rates last month. That was possible, but it didn’t happen… Yellen didn’t say that if we get all the improvements we want, we’re going to raise rates. She said if we get all the improvements we want, we might raise rates. She didn’t even use the word probable… Probable would imply the possibility was greater than 50/50…”

#178 Tony on 11.07.15 at 11:29 am

Re: #142 For those about to flop… on 11.07.15 at 1:12 am

You also have to look to the future not the present. Boomers will retire Millennials will stay lazy. Demand for just about everything will fall. Taxes will skyrocket, the birth rate will plunge. We are looking at decades or more of falling interest rates like Europe. Once interest rates fall and demand never picks up rates stay where they are for a long, long time. If world economies ever pick up at all collectibles look to be one of the best investments left out there.

#179 Nora Lenderby on 11.07.15 at 11:29 am

#93 Sheane Wallace on 11.06.15 at 9:26 pm
#89 Freedom First
We Canadians, are way nicer and much more stupid than the Japanese and the Europeans. We will never forget to say: Thank You while being screwed.

The secret I have found is only to screw with people you like a lot. Then you can be sincere in your thanks :-)

#180 Nora Lenderby on 11.07.15 at 11:37 am

124 diolch yn fawr on 11.06.15 at 11:31 pm
I live in sticks and I have grade 6 . And we are poor. Teeth don’t get fixed and we don’t take trips. We are the new indigenous except without land claims or gov’t help. No French do we speak and no repression can we claim No CBC do we watch. We are the unwashed and the ignorant

lol…my grandmother told me about people like you. She used to say, “Soap is cheap, they’re just down-hearted!” and it is and you are.

Seriously, save up to get your teeth looked after, though.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H6g1I37_r1E

#181 NextYear on 11.07.15 at 11:37 am

#90 Sheane Wallace

Wasn’t it 70% chance in september… and june… and march?? By december 15 it will be 20%…and everyone will be 70% in april

OMG this time that is it… until it’s not…

What is interesting is what the excuse is going to be… Especially if we don’t get some kind of stock market correction until then. Maybe it will be about not ruining christmas!! We know in april the excuse will be about the winter… that one is easy

#182 Tony on 11.07.15 at 11:42 am

Re: #168 common sense on 11.07.15 at 10:47 am

One thing I noticed but didn’t expect is boomers as they get older get lazier and don’t think clearly. We see boomers retire in Port Perry. The whole idea is to move to a big city with low housing costs and sell properties that are grossly overpriced. This would mean cities like Peterborough and Bellville. Yet none of the boomers have sold their overpriced properties in the greater Toronto area before the big collapse in prices and moved to somewhere else to lock in a profit or capital gain. This is what I mean about boomers as they age don’t think clearly. I guess the old adage will always hold true for most “the average person will always die broke”. Bad decisions and pure stupidity are to blame for this sad reality.

#183 Drill Baby Drill on 11.07.15 at 11:57 am

#130 Albertan and Canadian
Get real. No one is going to sell their house at a 60% discount because they do not like the commute. As far as upkeep and taxes go they are even more expensive in Brittania, Mount Royal etc.
I have been commuting to from Calgary for 34 yrs and most people who do it chose to do it.

#184 Dyugle on 11.07.15 at 12:01 pm

The last time the FED hiked rates ’04 the ten year yield was close to five percent. The 30 day was a little below 1%. A couple of years later the hiking ended. During the entire time the 10 year vacillated between 4.5 & 5%. The 30 day went from 1% to 5.25% inverting the yield curve.

Prior to the first hike the ten year bottomed at 3% and change. So the jawboning the FED does prior to the first rate hike moves the ten year not the actual rate hikes that follow. These seem to affect only the shorter duration notes. This can be checked at the daily treasury yield curve web site.
This time the jawboning has taken the 10 year from 1.5% to 2.5%. Will the 10 year continue its assent?
If it follows the last pattern then the answer is NO!!!

#185 Patrick on 11.07.15 at 12:01 pm

#174 Nora Lenderby on 11.07.15 at 11:23 am
#62 RayofLight on 11.06.15 at 8:24 pm

Well, my little Ray of Sunshine, you just demonstrated that you are not following current affairs. Climate change is the Next Big Thing as far as the world is concerned (regardless of what you or I think of it).
__________________________________

Let me fix that for you: “Climate Change is the next big thing as far as the FIRST world is concerned.”

The other 5 billion people on this planet don’t give a shit. They just want to have food and cars and iPads, just like us.

We should come up with a term for people who enjoy a substantial standard of living but preach the virtues of environmentalism. Kind of like a “champagne socialist”. Maybe we could call them the “diesel environmentalists”. Oh, oh, or maybe the “gasoline-greens”, that has a nice ring to it.

#186 Gordon Canada on 11.07.15 at 12:09 pm

The U.S. unemployment rate is now down to 5.0%, 0.6% below the median unemployment rate (for as long as the data goes back – 1948). This unemployment rate suggests that the U.S. economy is very strong, historically speaking. Only 30% of the time has the U.S. unemployment rate been lower than 5.0% (32% of the time over the last 20 years).

It is asinine that interest rates are still as low as they are. They should be 500 bps higher than what they are.

#187 EspressoP on 11.07.15 at 12:18 pm

“prefs tumbled in despair (while continuing to pay their full dividend)”

While potentially not representative of the universe of preferreds, CPD distributions have actually been cut this year given coupon rates resetting lower, at least on the rate reset portion of the portfolio.

Let’s hope the recent surge in yields will correct this in the future.

#188 For those about to flop... on 11.07.15 at 12:20 pm

Even Sherry Cooper couldn’t polish it.-Garth

/////////////////////////////////////

That’s because you can’t polish a turd…

#189 jean on 11.07.15 at 12:31 pm

From your lips to God’s ears, Garth. But I’m not holding my breath on the rate increase. The Fed has lost all credibility, and they will come up with some excuse to delay it and then delay it again. I guess we will see.

#190 Don Derc on 11.07.15 at 12:39 pm

“Is that trigger the Fed’s first rate hike in a decade? The collapse in oil? A tumbling dollar? The surge in bond yields and mortgage costs? The death of Keystone? Alberta houses auctioned for 60% off? A swelling, unrepayable pile of debt? Families caving after one missed paycheque or a $500 mortgage pop?”

Which is why the rates won’t go up in Dec. You can champion the yanks all you want as well, but the Super Committee that was formed 5 years ago to address the ceiling debt never addressed the problem – they just raised the ceiling!

Look, it’s Lehman/Enron 2007 all over again, only in Canada – Garth has clearly pointed it out. But as usual, market forces have not played a role here. It’s the Saudis/Yanks conspiring to gain oil market share, it’s gov’t shell games. The rates should have been boosted in 2010 and stayed there. It’s what you vote for… the falsifying of data/records.

The rates going up will bankrupt a certain number of companies, and mortgage/debt holders. The banks, and the gov’t have done the math. They know YOUR numbers and your neighbor’s as well…intimately!

And the math says “no rate increase in in 2015”. Yes Dorothy, it’s that bad. It’s Kansas 2009 all over again.

Remember folks…it will be a SLOW death – I wonder where we will all be in 2017. Scary.

#191 Russ on 11.07.15 at 12:46 pm

Snowboid on 11.06.15 at 8:39 pm

BTW we pay about $ 100 CAD a month for each of us for excellent medical coverage plan while in the US, even with my ‘pre-existing’ conditions.

Here is Arizona average pricing is about 40% less overall than Kelowna, so we won’t start getting too concerned until the CAD drops below 60 cents.

Don’t get your hopes up about older Canadians retiring to a place where they have to drove 150 km to get any major medical issues dealt with.
===================

Hey Snowy,

Thanks for the short review about the downside of living old on the east side of Vancouver Island.

I am a little concerned when there is talk in these comments about other people moving here. We don’t need any more Albertans, thanks very much.

Oh, and tell them we have rats. That creeps ’em out too.

#192 Nagraj on 11.07.15 at 12:53 pm

The photo: so this is how Canada’s 1% dispose of dead Xmas cookies.

Quite the funeral procession, and rewritten burial service, “Dearly beloved, we are gathered here . . . crumbs to crumbs.”

At the fancy memorial there were many finely framed colourful cookie photographs displayed; bakers wept, but were consoled knowing that Julia Child would be receiving them (the cookies) in heaven. Cue Faure’s “In Paradisium”.
[Of course this cemetery is well guarded to prevent Stelco pensioners, for example, from grave robbing.]

And just as one of the wards (18th floor, I think) at the Princess Margaret gets – in perpetuity – fresh flowers every day (as per the last will and testament of a deceased Canadian soft drink magnate) Mom has contracted with a florist to perpetually supply the cookies grave with fresh blossoms, come rain or come snow.

*** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** ***

With the Canadian Oct unemployment rate comin’ in at zero, and the US rate below zero, the Palace Press is, in a body, singin’ “We’re so swell, we’re so great! Can’t you tell? Just you wait: everything’s comin’ up roses! Roses!”

But in a far off corner of this cemetery a new deep grave is quietly being dug, for delusional Canadians. It’s unfathomably deep.

[Omelette: ” . . . the dread of something after death, the undiscovered country from whose bourn no cookie returns, puzzles the will . . . “]

#193 BC Guy on 11.07.15 at 1:05 pm

Justin Trudeau’s to-do list:

1. Bring back long form census.
2. Allow scientists to talk to media.
3. Create cabinet with a 50-50 gender split.
4. Increase taxes on 1%.
5. Roll back OAS age limit from 67 to 65.
6. Export Smoking Man to first country that will take him.

#194 TurnerNation on 11.07.15 at 1:12 pm

Inflation as per the State and Party estimates is 1%.
Got it?

“City staff is recommending that council approve an eight per cent hike to water rates and a 3 per cent hike to garbage collection rates for 2016.”

http://www.cp24.com/news/toronto-homeowners-could-see-bump-in-water-garbage-rates-1.2645751

#195 Tony on 11.07.15 at 1:15 pm

As if it wasn’t bad enough already look what rising rates did to this unfortunate chap.

http://100000goal.com/

#196 Ronaldo on 11.07.15 at 1:17 pm

#62 Ray of Light –

”At the same time as China’s use of coal was purposely under stated by 20%, (and they get a pass)”

Yep, and that would still represent a trainload of coal reaching the length from earth to the moon each and every year and growing. Makes us look squeaky clean don’t it?

#197 DON on 11.07.15 at 1:38 pm

#37 Kilby on 11.06.15 at 7:41 pm

The price difference is as staggering as the difference in climate between Victoria and these US cities that have summer-like winter weather. Year-round beautiful weather in these cities makes purchasing a vacation property attractive to thousands of Canadians each year.

Try spending the OTHER six months in those cities, 100 + degree weather and same humidity in some. We have neighbours on the island that own by the ocean in San Clemente and spend 6 months in their Parksville home to escape the heat.

Many older Canadians with health issues are buying here as well because of the costs of medical insurance, with an impending 70 cent dollar we will no doubt see more moving here.
***************************

Vancouver Island has “summer-like winter weather”. If you consider living in the cold rain, fog, lack off sunlight. DAMP cold is not good for Health issues either or your joints and bones. Yes it is not -30, or -5 but Washington state and Oregon would be better bets for winter living, or even Hawaii in the winter. Qualicum and Parksville have already started to quietly revert to the mean. Too many houses built solely for those who have retired – the whole town of qualicum now has an average age of 70-75 plus. Parksville is heading the same way – where’s the sustainability.

Already I know off trades friends who have shuttered their businesses due to lack of work related to construction, new lot development. Nope: the island is not a bad place to live, but not an easy life either – lack of good transportation keeps older people with limited services and when the wind and rain storms hit.

#198 Bill on 11.07.15 at 1:44 pm

#176 Carlo
You might want to check out Peter Schiffs track record? His funds he sells to clients have been destroyed. He got everything wrong.
Just saying.

#199 Kreditanstalt on 11.07.15 at 1:49 pm

More likely, rates will never be raised – at least not lastingly. The central banks are boxed in by their own reliance on their own “data”.

The Bernank said so himself: “we will not likely see rate normalization in my lifetime” – or something to that effect.

Houses will continue to sell, though…just fewer and fewer and fewer of them, as has been happening since the depression started in 2007-08.

#200 TurnerNation on 11.07.15 at 1:52 pm

So, it’s not enough we worry over terrorists entering our bedrooms now that local corporations are selling us old, toxic, re-packaged red meat (as posted CBC Marketplace report)?
Is this a tip for the Barbaric Cultural Practices hotline?

#201 DON on 11.07.15 at 1:59 pm

#60 waiting on the westcoast on 11.06.15 at 8:21 pm

If you look at how actual herds work… Individuals slowly start pointing in a direction. Over time, the group desiring to move surpass the number that indicate staying put. Once the tipping point is reached, it is a mad dash forward.

Watch the herd slowly come to terms with the situation and then the accelerating movement in a new direction…

I learn about humans from my chickens… We really are not that sophisticated. ;-)
******************************

Agreed

Believing we are more sophisticated….lacking a healthy amount of humility. The herd is definitely starting to get spooked. One can feel it in the air, the tension is increasing.

#202 TurnerNation on 11.07.15 at 2:16 pm

#154 Riding the Pine
Even simpler: the world runs on these top 5 businesses I’m sorry to say. Frame ever ‘crisis’, invasion, new law in these terms, and it all makes sense.

1. Oil/Natural Resources extraction.
2. Weapons trade.
3. Human trafficking and slavery.
4. Drug trade.
5. Media control.

#203 gumboot princess on 11.07.15 at 2:24 pm

I’ve lived all of my life roughly divided between Vancouver Island and Calgary. Born in Alberta, I love the sunny days in winter and the drive out to Priddis in the spring – the shining white peaks of the Rockies never fail to inspire. Lots of proud country families around that area. Generations deep history of ranchers who work hard and raise great families.

Vancouver Island is home now, and I hear the same old criticisms about living here from those who don’t. The thing I like is that the ferry to the mainland keeps the population from growing rampantly and the perceived “always rainy” mindset turns people away, too.

It is cloudy and rainy sometimes, but not as much as people think and snowdrops blooming beginning in February never fail to impress. Brisk days in the winter are fantastic for walks on the beach and to pick up seaweed for our gardens. The gardens here are amazing but not everybody likes gumboots. Life is pretty good here, but it isn’t for everyone.

I get out my pearls and little black dress, too, when I go to town – or when I go to Victoria, Nanaimo or Comox to catch a direct flight to Calgary.

Please visit us, and if you like it, please stay – or I’ll visit you in Arizona if it does get dreary!

#204 BobC on 11.07.15 at 2:26 pm

You guys should be proud. I hope socialism doesn’t do to you what it did for us in the states. We’re not on either list anymore. We have another year of destruction to go.

http://news.yahoo.com/canada-ranks-first-in-world-for-personal-freedom-and-social-tolerance-211723934.html

#205 Nora Lenderby on 11.07.15 at 2:30 pm

#184 Patrick on 11.07.15 at 12:01 pm
#174 Nora Lenderby on 11.07.15 at 11:23 am
“Well, my little Ray of Sunshine, you just demonstrated that you are not following current affairs. Climate change is the Next Big Thing as far as the world is concerned (regardless of what you or I think of it).”

Let me fix that for you: “Climate Change is the next big thing as far as the FIRST world is concerned.” The other 5 billion people on this planet don’t give a shit. They just want to have food and cars and iPads, just like us. We should come up with a term for people who enjoy a substantial standard of living but preach the virtues of environmentalism. Kind of like a “champagne socialist”. Maybe we could call them the “diesel environmentalists”. Oh, oh, or maybe the “gasoline-greens”, that has a nice ring to it.

Well, we’ll see soon, won’t we?

Incidentally, I don’t think that world access to food, transportation and mobile computing devices is unachievable. It’s pretty well available in most of the world as it is.

Btw, making up clumsy names for people you disagree with may make you feel good, but it is lazy to assume that everyone is as venal as you say. Just because you might not like a concept, doesn’t make it unimportant (or wrong).

#206 Nora Lenderby on 11.07.15 at 2:41 pm

#198 Kreditanstalt on 11.07.15 at 1:49 pm
More likely, rates will never be raised – at least not lastingly. The central banks are boxed in by their own reliance on their own “data”. The Bernank said so himself: “we will not likely see rate normalization in my lifetime” – or something to that effect. Houses will continue to sell, though…just fewer and fewer and fewer of them, as has been happening since the depression started in 2007-08.

At least you didn’t make tasteless remarks about Mr. Bernanke’s underwear. For that you have my thanks :-)

#207 Liberals have zero respect for Canada on 11.07.15 at 2:41 pm

The leftist Hater Harper agenda held by the civil service aka ‘pigs in the trough’ has revealed itself very clearly in the aftermath of the CBC’s soft coup and rape of Canadian democracy by unions and special interests.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/public-servants-shed-cloak-of-impartiality-at-least-for-a-day-and-fawn-over-trudeau

#208 Russ on 11.07.15 at 2:55 pm

I wonder if the Keystone death announcement is an opportunity.

the Libs want to invest in infrastructure, we have stranded supply of very cheap heavy oil in Alberta and the price of refined products (gasoline) is still high across Canada. A dollar per litre beyond Hope and $1.30 in 604.
http://www.bcgasprices.com/GasPriceSearch.aspx

Labour, engineering & steel is dirt cheap right now. I wonder what the ROI on a new refinery in the Prince Rupert area would be.. with say , a 50-50 public, private partnership and a pipeline @ 100% private funding.

#209 John Doe on 11.07.15 at 3:05 pm

I don’t agree with your arguments Garth. I have followed your blogs for three years and you got to admit maybe you are missing something in your analysis as your predictions about real estate seems not very accurate. We all know sometime in future a correction might happen but so is Armageddon.

A visitor from Hong Kong told me a few years ago that home prices in Vancouver are still way below that of the comparable homes in Hong Kong and that is way they still look at homes here as bargains!

I think the real estate market in hot markets in Canada is more related to Chinese economy than it is to Canadian economy. I don’t expect any change here unless we see some disturbance in Chinese economy.

Wanna bet?

Tell them in Calgary, Montreal, Saskatoon or Halifax. YVR is not the nation. — Garth

#210 Washed Up Lawyer on 11.07.15 at 3:14 pm

The other day there was some discussion here about the 50/50 gender split in Pete’s kid’s cabinet.

Researchers instantly noticed a 5000% spike in the interest of long term Canadian males in “meritocracy”.

http://www.thebeaverton.com/national/item/2204-50-female-cabinet-appointments-lead-to-5000-increase-in-guys-who-suddenly-care-about-merit-in-cabinet

#211 bdy sktrn on 11.07.15 at 3:22 pm

today’s deal.
ask – 1.18 ; sold 1.27 days on market 9?

tiny 100yr old structure is a 25k liability. 33’lot a little too close to a busy street

east van/the drive area

listings are few and don’t last.

#212 David McDonald on 11.07.15 at 3:37 pm

#132 45north
I saw the article about dropping condo prices in Ottawa. As further confirmation of this reality there is a gorgeous condo for sale in our building for cheap relative to recent prices but no customers, nada! I have finally won the argument with my wife who wouldn’t consider renting but it’s a high price to pay.

#213 kommykim on 11.07.15 at 3:54 pm

RE:

#208 Washed Up Lawyer on 11.07.15 at 3:14 pm
Researchers instantly noticed a 5000% spike in the interest of long term Canadian males in “meritocracy”.

The question that we should ask ourselves is this: What was the criteria for selecting a cabinet before? Was it merit, paying back favours owed, or strategic regional politics? Or some combo of all three?

#214 jess on 11.07.15 at 4:09 pm

270K! Lift Off!!!!

1998 The Federal Reserve Bank of New York
The Dollar and U.S. Manufacturing
Linda S. Goldberg and Keith Crocket
http://ftp.ny.frb.org/research/current_issues/ci4-12.pdf

http://www.ny.frb.org/research/current_issues/
Eight Different Faces of the Labor Market
http://www.ny.frb.org/research/data_indicators/index.html

http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
137(P) 271(P)
preliminary

For example, in the establishment survey, estimates for the most recent 2 months
are based on incomplete returns; for this reason, these estimates are labeled
preliminary in the tables. It is only after two successive revisions to a monthly
estimate, when nearly all sample reports have been received, that the estimate is
considered final.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm
http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesfaq.htm

#215 Ronaldo on 11.07.15 at 4:12 pm

#177 Tony

”We are looking at decades or more of falling interest rates like Europe.”

There aren’t too many months of interest rate drops to be had let alone decades. Love your forecasting though. About as good as Sherry Coopers. Anyways, keep them coming, we all need a good laugh once in awhile. lol

#216 bdy sktrn on 11.07.15 at 4:29 pm

#161 Rational Optimist on 11.07.15 at 9:09 am
I now see him at the Beer Store sorting out in the alley **several** times a week.

———————————
you sure go to the beer store alot!

why not just buy 2 months worth so you don;t have to keep going back?

#217 Victoria Real Estate Update on 11.07.15 at 4:34 pm

Weather Update

Rainy and cool again in Victoria today. Victorians know it will be like this most days for the next number of months. Many people I see on the street are wearing winter gear.

Most people I’ve talked to lately have complained about Victoria’s weather, but that’s Victoria at this time of year.

I know many Victorians who have flown south again for their yearly escape to Florida, California, Arizona, Texas… They say they can’t handle Victoria’s cold, wet, dreary, depressing, dark winter weather.

Note that this weather update isn’t my personal complaint but rather it is the collective complaint of the many Victorians I’ve talked to lately.

#218 Timing is Everything on 11.07.15 at 4:35 pm

#69 Snowboid – said, “Don’t get your hopes up about older Canadians retiring to a place (Vancouver Island) where they have to drove [sic] 150 km to get any major medical issues dealt with.”

Seems like you miss the island, to me.

Qualicum to Courtenay—> 40 minutes, 66 km

http://nihp.viha.ca

Parksville to Naniamo —> 30 minutes, 40 km

http://www.viha.ca/locations/nrgh.htm

Just 4 U…

http://tinyurl.com/k4mxfqp
————————————————————-
#202 gumboot princess

We’re seeing more Alberta car/truck plates in Victoria these daze.

Jasper (Ha!), our black lab, loves island life…So, we’re staying (retiring) ‘on the island’. Oh well, could be worse.

#219 bdy sktrn on 11.07.15 at 4:35 pm

The Fed has no intention of raising rates a quarter point and stopping. This will begin a tightening cycle lasting several years – precisely the reason policymakers were so overly cautious about when to begin. — Garth

———————
both are right

raise one soon – stop for a year or 2 – raise again – wait till 2020 – third raise as rates hit 0.75%

#220 bdy sktrn on 11.07.15 at 4:36 pm

unless ‘data dependent’ gets tossed out.

#221 Patrick on 11.07.15 at 4:40 pm

Incidentally, I don’t think that world access to food, transportation and mobile computing devices is unachievable. It’s pretty well available in most of the world as it is.

Btw, making up clumsy names for people you disagree with may make you feel good, but it is lazy to assume that everyone is as venal as you say. Just because you might not like a concept, doesn’t make it unimportant (or wrong).
_______________________________

You’re right, it is achievable. But will more access to food and transportation be possible while reducing greenhouse gas emissions? Tractors require gasoline, food needs to be transported, new cars require steel.

Will we impose carbon taxes on those in poverty while we ‘feed at the carbon trough’? Or worse, make us a nation in poverty? Rich chinese are already pricing us out of real estate markets (apparently). What if they price us out of food?

I use mockery and ‘clumsy’ names (I thought it was clever) to bring attention to ideas that are not well thought-out. I managed to engage one more thoughtful person in a conversation today.

I would think twice before supporting the current environmental movement. For all its good intentions, I firmly believe that it is short-sighted and will cause more harm than good.

And for the record I think climate change is an issue. But not one we are on the path of solving.

#222 Washed Up Lawyer on 11.07.15 at 5:22 pm

Garth:

I am drafting an excessively long comment about the Keystone XL pipeline having followed the file closely for about 7 years. I do not profess to have any particular expertise but maybe my comments might strike some key points. The Globe and Mail, National Post and Calgary Sun have missed the point entirely.

Can I post it here or should I take it down the hall to The Economist or 350.org?

In short, it addresses the fact that I have not seen a single cogent argument that the pipeline is somehow in the national interest of the US.

It also contains some salacious points.

Yours,

WUL

#223 OXI in GREECE !! on 11.07.15 at 5:26 pm

Phoney Job Numbers in both countries…..

No Rate Hike

#224 BS on 11.07.15 at 5:28 pm

Let me fix that for you: “Climate Change is the next big thing as far as the FIRST world is concerned.”

The other 5 billion people on this planet don’t give a shit. They just want to have food and cars and iPads, just like us.

Well stated. What China and India do is what matters. With 30 million people what Canada does will have close to zero impact on the environment and climate change. Carbon taxes will just ship our jobs to Asia where there are few environmental regulations with little enforcement which will make the problem worse.

#225 common sense on 11.07.15 at 5:35 pm

Read George H.W. Bush’s Lips..

“There WILL be a rate increase in December.”

And we all know how that turned out for him…

#226 jess on 11.07.15 at 5:41 pm

http://www.va.gov/budget/docs/summary/Fy2015-VolumeII-MedicalProgramsAndInformationTechnology.pdf
page 6 of 424
2016 advance appropriations request 58.662 billion VA medical care program in addition ….
————-
geoparks

In the vicinity of notorious Katla volcano that gave Katla Global Geopark its name, Presidents Hollande and Ragnar Grímsson visited the vast area that has been exposed by the melting of the Sólheimajökull glacier in recent decades. More than 1 kilometre of the glacier’s ice has melted back leaving nothing but black sand and bare rocks. The melting that is currently occurring has resulted in the formation of a glacial lagoon.

http://www.globalgeopark.org/

…”Global Geoparks are territories, which promote their geo-diversity through community-led initiatives to enhance regional sustainable development. They promote awareness of geological hazards and many help local communities prepare disaster mitigation strategies. They celebrate the 4.6-billion-year history of our Planet and the geo-diversity that has shaped every aspect of our lives societies. ”

The Global Network now numbers 120 Geoparks in 33 countries.

#227 BS on 11.07.15 at 5:45 pm

Mr. Obama has no need to enhance his future worth for the “lecture circuit”; he has always had what is called “star quality” or charisma. If you have listened to him speak, you’ll understand that people will pay to be inspired and to feel good. There are some things more compelling than money :-)

It is always about the money. Obama is no different. He has been a failure of a president. In 7 years he has got almost nothing done. Look at his original election promises. Laughable. He is desperately trying to make a legacy by doing the few things of significance that he can, like killing Keystone.

Obama is no different than Al Gore or David Suzuki. Both are part of the elite 1/10th of 1%, own multiple mansions, fly on private jets and want you do what they say and not what they do. These guys add more carbon and pollute more in a few months with their life styles than the average person in the world will pollute in a life time.

#228 ANON on 11.07.15 at 5:55 pm

*Sigh*
Not the climate change talk again…
Seriously, highly educated people can’t accept the simple mathematical fact of lending with interest and its implications as the primary driver in any bubble. Climate change? Who knows?! A myriad of variables and gibberish based on pure assumptions upon which math is applied to give it a sense of authority; it’s religion at its finest.
In either scenario, the climate effects (if any) are a mere consequence of the bubble, and the bubbles can always be explained without any assumptions, only by pure arithmetic, nothing more, nothing else, no mind tricks, no gibberish, just the simple equation of compounding promises.
No wonder the TAE gal went almost literally in the wilderness…

#229 Broke Dick on 11.07.15 at 6:00 pm

#214 bdy sktrn on 11.07.15 at 4:29 pm
#161 Rational Optimist on 11.07.15 at 9:09 am
I now see him at the Beer Store sorting out in the alley **several** times a week.

———————————
you sure go to the beer store alot!

why not just buy 2 months worth so you don;t have to keep going back?

———————————————

Maybe he only has a small pickup.

or

pogey check is not enough for two months worth.

#230 BS on 11.07.15 at 6:02 pm

A visitor from Hong Kong told me a few years ago that home prices in Vancouver are still way below that of the comparable homes in Hong Kong and that is way they still look at homes here as bargains!

I have a 1 kilo bar of iron I will sell you for $1000. My friend will tell you it is a bargain compared to a 1 oz bar of gold he bought for $1500. How many would you like to buy at that bargain price?

#231 Snowboid on 11.07.15 at 6:13 pm

#216 Timing is Everything on 11.07.15 at 4:35 pm…

My observations were based on about 15 visits to RJH – almost all the folks I talked to were from up island. If Courtenay and Nanaimo can do major surgeries now that’s great. If you are blessed with good health, then you have nothing to worry about.

I do miss Victoria, it was really wonderful when the weather was nice. I enjoyed cycling to work, walks along the ocean, yes it was great except for the winters. I don’t like snow or horizontal rain. Maintenance on a SFH a couple of hundred feet from the ocean, with a yard full of mature garry oaks and evergreens consumed most weekends, not to mention the power washing of sidewalks, decks and driveway every couple of months to clear the moss off.

You are right, retiring on the island is better than most provinces. But summer in the Okanagan and winter in Arizona is even better IMHO.

#232 espressobob on 11.07.15 at 6:15 pm

Prefs have taken a beating recently, but still as globally diversified investing goes, this is a non event.

Over time those who stay the course, should do well. Buy on weakness. Most don’t.

Pull up a long term chart on CPD and judge for yourself.
It might not seem so bad on a long term basis.

http://www.blackrock.com/ca/individual/en/products/239836/ishares-sptsx-canadian-preferred-share-index-fund

#233 Snowboid on 11.07.15 at 6:32 pm

“…A 75-cent buck means more inflation and a sickening rise in the price of Fat Boys…”

I thought I might see you in Scottsdale today for the opening of the worlds’ largest HD dealership. It’s 150,000 sq ft with a theatre, chapel, tattoo parlour – as well as about 220 new and used HDs.

Actually couldn’t get in (so maybe you were there), the parking lot was full of bikers who were there for the opening and an event. So it was really just a drive by – but an impressive dealership nonetheless.

http://tinyurl.com/HDScottsdale

Based on what I saw there isn’t much doubt the economy is doing fine here. We also popped by one of the larger arts/crafts annual sales today – we were told that by early afternoon they had racked up three times the sales of the last ten years.

#234 Nora Lenderby on 11.07.15 at 6:45 pm

#220 Washed Up Lawyer on 11.07.15 at 5:22 pm
… excessively long comment about the Keystone XL pipeline … It also contains some salacious points.

Ooh, we are most intrigued, Mr. L! It’s not often that we can get some sauce on these dry topics…Do tell!

#235 Dee on 11.07.15 at 6:49 pm

@#115 Deviled Eggshells

#166 Dee on 11.06.15 at 11:30 am
“US adds 271,000 jobs, making Feb hike done deal.”

Wait, I thought we were still expecting December? I mean, I agree it’s very definitely coming, but I’m curious why expectations got pushed back again…

“Fed”, not “Feb.” — Garth…

I hope Dee is not a trader…I could see him wiping out a small fortune by mistaking a + for -.

The devil is in the detail…

The typo was Garth’s, not mine. It was then fixed. If you look at other (previous) comments, you’ll see the same typo pasted in. (And be careful about assuming gender…)

#236 Herb on 11.07.15 at 6:53 pm

#220 WUL,

… I have not seen a single cogent argument that the pipeline is somehow in the national interest of the US.

You’re credible. No point inconveniencing a lot of electrons to say more.

#237 Nora Lenderby on 11.07.15 at 7:00 pm

#225 BS on 11.07.15 at 5:45 pm
It is always about the money…Obama is no different than Al Gore or David Suzuki. Both are part of the elite 1/10th of 1%, own multiple mansions, fly on private jets and want you do what they say and not what they do. These guys add more carbon and pollute more in a few months with their life styles than the average person in the world will pollute in a life time.

Considering the average person is probably living in a city in India or China, that is undeniable, but completely irrelevant. You could say that about any public figure (it’s so much easier to throw mud than to be constructive).

If it was “about the money” all these people would be working in some other line of business. Power, influence, some say in how the world or the country is managed, an opportunity to change history…I think you’re teeniest bit envious :-)

#238 maxx on 11.07.15 at 7:13 pm

#29 The American on 11.06.15 at 7:28 pm

Absolutely correct.

#239 Timing is Everything on 11.07.15 at 7:15 pm

#215 Victoria Weather Update

You’re weird. Just move to Texas, or ANYwhere else but Victoria, BC and be happy. Whatever makes your meat loaf!

…Gotta go. Taking Jasper to Durrance Lake for a hike and swim. Loves the water. He’s only 4 months old (see post above), but swims like the otters at Durrance (literally). Tomorrow is Island-View beach, rain or shine!

http://tinyurl.com/l4kltcv
http://tinyurl.com/o5eemaw

Just 4 U 2…

http://tinyurl.com/nhhwy5v
http://tinyurl.com/k4mxfqp

#240 Rational Optimist on 11.07.15 at 7:18 pm

214 bdy sktrn on 11.07.15 at 4:29 pm

“you sure go to the beer store alot!

why not just buy 2 months worth so you don;t have to keep going back?”

If I buy a week’s worth, it lasts a week. If I buy two months’ worth…it lasts a week.

Unfortunately, the Beer Store is on my way home from work. I gotta move.

#241 Ret on 11.07.15 at 7:35 pm

I don’t care a whit about Keystone, Obama, climate change or long census forms.

Let’s get our priorities in order here. Has anyone tried to bake that recipe yet?

#242 Ontario's Left Coast on 11.07.15 at 7:38 pm

My take on cottage life.. Disclosure: we Have a $.6M Viceroy on a small lake in the heart of Muskoka. Beautiful area but I’m not a cottager at heart, so the pros are outweighed by the cons, which include: never-ending maintenance, you need two sets of everything, minimal relaxation time is ruined over the guilt of all the other crap you should be doing. Biggest con: the opportunity cost of all the other travel etc. you could be doing when you’re up there. Anyway, it’s paid for and it keeps peace in the family… you can’t win ’em all. Cheers!

#243 For those about to flop... on 11.07.15 at 7:52 pm

Earlier this week a few people on the blog commented that Garth’s voice is not as deep as it is in their minds when they read his words.
Here’s the one that gets me ,whenever I read one of Washed Up Lawyers innocent ramblings I am instantly transported to Matthew McConaughy doing one of his Lincoln commercials.
There he is in my head driving down main St. Fort Mac talking about the local real estate market in a fresh pressed suit and with half a bottle of cologne on…

#244 45north on 11.07.15 at 7:56 pm

First, the US created 271,000 new jobs last month, blowing the doors off estimates and reaffirming the country is in the heat of a sustained recovery. That news was enough to convince Sherry and everybody else that the Fed will initiate rate lift-off in six weeks.

a story to illustrate that the public readily-available data is not what insiders use:

once a year I go to the Rideau Carleton ( racetrack ) in Ottawa. You can pick up sheets which show past performance of the drivers and the horses. In one night, 100 horses race ( about ). On one side of the track are the stands where the public watches the races. On the other side are the stables with the horses, the drivers and trainers. They know a whole lot more than what’s on the sheets.

The US employment data is like the sheets showing past performance at the race track.

#245 gumboot princess on 11.07.15 at 7:58 pm

I’m just curious. Does anyone know how much property tax is on a 1.5 million dollar home in Vancouver?

#246 espressobob on 11.07.15 at 8:23 pm

Profit taking (rebalancing) from any asset class has no regrets. Unless an investor operates on emotion.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6a_KFJ5Ksc

#247 Daisy Mae on 11.07.15 at 8:24 pm

#162: “I wonder if his business will suffer when my neighbours start finding the hassle worth the $2.40….”

*****************

Yes, it is a hassle. We need containers that self-destruct on ’empty’….problem solved.

#248 salonist on 11.07.15 at 8:34 pm

A lot of house horny Americans here in the Bahamas! They buy up everything! I guess we are very similar

don’t think americans know where Canada is.

daughter was on one of those volunteer tours in tanzania
you pay them to volunteer
there was a contingent from newyork.asked my daughter where she’s from.. she replied Toronto, Canada
the response was, where is canada

#249 ANON on 11.07.15 at 8:45 pm

#240 Ontario’s Left Coast on 11.07.15 at 7:38 pm

I’m not a cottager at heart

Thank you, it is always good to have confirmation of the assumption that there will be available retreats for the poor willing souls, if things get truly hairy. Cottages and RVs will probably be the first to be abandoned, and our gracious host has already touched the subject in the past. *

(*)Not that I would personally drive a diesel pusher right into the cottage country to live on fish, beans, MREs, white tails, popcorn, and homebrew, while really hairy events evolve into whatever the new normal might become, that would be a moldy doomer’s “plan Z” thought, perish it!

PS: Are wood stoves generally available in cottages? ;)

#250 BS on 11.07.15 at 8:49 pm

Considering the average person is probably living in a city in India or China, that is undeniable, but completely irrelevant.

Irrelevant that people in China are struggling to heat their 100 square ft shack and Al Gore wants them to stop burning coal while he has a $30,000 per year utility bill?

If it was “about the money” all these people would be working in some other line of business.

Al Gore had a declared net worth of $700K in 2000 when he ran for the Presidential nomination. Today he is worth an estimated $200 million. What line of business pays better than that? Climate change advocacy is one of the best paying careers out there. Obama wants his piece too.

Who wouldn’t want to attend this conference to help save the planet:

http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2015/01/20/1700-private-jets-fly-to-davos-to-discuss-global-warming/

#251 Timing is Everything on 11.07.15 at 8:53 pm

#231 Snowboid

Well, that’s your ‘meat loaf’ then. Good on ya!

We need ocean and an International airport (pretty damn good health care here too, IMHO).

Bro’ has a large Phoenix house and a beach front in Puerto Morelos. I must say, we love Morelos. They like visiting Victoria and we like visiting them, too.

It works. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

#252 LIES - Canada rates will be -1% in 5 years on 11.07.15 at 8:53 pm

just more LIES – Canada rates will be -1% in 5 years

minus, baby!

like in Europe and US (after the 2020 total crash)

#253 Rexx Rock on 11.07.15 at 9:14 pm

VICTORIA REAL ESTATE,stop comparing US house prices to Victoria.The average family income in Victoria is over $110,000.Affluent price for affluent people.It could be worse like Vancouver.Victoria is considered the San Diego of Canada.Its all about sacrifice to where you want to live and afford.

#254 Victoria Real Estate Update on 11.07.15 at 9:15 pm

#239 Timing is Everything

You obviously didn’t read my entire post. I wrote that my post wasn’t my personal complaint.

Also if you had been following the comments throughout the entire thread you would have realized that what I wrote was relevant and directed at those commenters who claim that Vancouver Island doesn’t have dreary weather in the winter.

You don’t seem capable of following and understanding a conversation.

#255 OXI in GREECE !! on 11.07.15 at 9:37 pm

#253 Rexx Rock on 11.07.15 at 9:14 pm
VICTORIA REAL ESTATE,stop comparing US house prices to Victoria.The average family income in Victoria is over $110,000.

YOUR TAXDOLLARS AT WORK…….to bad the rest of the plebs make 1/2 that…..

#256 Robert Henry on 11.07.15 at 9:44 pm

Was intrigued by the gravestone with recipe. I guess someone asked for the recipe and got the answer “Over my dead body !”

#257 dr. talc on 11.07.15 at 9:56 pm

@ the guy who thinks leighigh acres is a.good investment -that place was known as.ground .zero in the last.RE.collapse
Dood, buy 5 of those boxes on slab, take Mark with you, he can buy some too
You cant flip em but you can rent them to mexicans, tourists wont rent tbere, put cash aside for the IRS, maybe some for rev.can too.

#258 DON on 11.07.15 at 9:56 pm

#202 gumboot princess

We’re seeing more Alberta car/truck plates in Victoria these daze.

Jasper (Ha!), our black lab, loves island life…So, we’re staying (retiring) ‘on the island’. Oh well, could be worse.

*******************
Yah…lots of those Albertan plates are returning from the oil field related work and drove their vehicles back to BC as the work is over.

If prices continue to fall in Alberta…I wonder how many retirees will want to move to BC where prices are still sticky in most of the larger urban areas.

#259 Freedom First on 11.07.15 at 10:01 pm

#254 Victoria Real Estate Update

Victoria. I enjoy your posts. The RE updates about Victoria, Calgary, U.S., everywhere. Also your description of Victoria winters from its inhabitants.

However, many people do not want the truth. I think I will refer to this intense dislike of the truth as “The Brad and Sherry Syndrome.” People who succumb to this Syndrome are overwhelmingly people who have “skin in the game”, so to speak. The “characteristics” of the people with this Syndrome are: denial, ignorance, dickheadedness, compulsive lying, and, of course, the number one characteristic found in people suffering with this Syndrome, “greed.”

Victoria. Thank you for your part in exposing who is suffering from this Syndrome. I must say, I really like it when Garth publicly exposes these sick individuals on his pathetic free blog.

#260 Nora Lenderby on 11.07.15 at 10:05 pm

#250 BS on 11.07.15 at 8:49 pm
Al Gore had a declared net worth of $700K in 2000 when he ran for the Presidential nomination. Today he is worth an estimated $200 million. What line of business pays better than that? Climate change advocacy is one of the best paying careers out there. Obama wants his piece too.

Oh…you are envious. Gotta let it go.

For me, I welcome our lizard overlords (same as the old overlords but with less lace trim :-)

#261 Chris on 11.07.15 at 10:55 pm

Nobel prize winning economist Paul Krugman is not nearly as convinced as you are Garth.
http://tinyurl.com/npb26sq

#262 Smoking Man on 11.07.15 at 11:00 pm

Disclosure coming to a city near you shortly.

Then we will be outed along with the tall whites, the greys.

At which point all religions fall apart. The religion with the most power over humanity is the one resisting disclosure the most.

http://www.openminds.tv/hillary-clintons-campaign-chairman-encourages-alien-inquiry/35164

#263 SWL1976 on 11.07.15 at 11:40 pm

Like I said earlier things are twisted when the President of Russia acts like a true Statesmen and the President of America lacks credibility.

http://www.sott.net/article/288204-Play-time-is-over-children-Putins-message-to-the-Western-elites-is-most-important-since-Churchills-Iron-Curtain-speech

While Yellen can baulk all she wants about interest rates, many, many people the world over are beginning to really see through the shell game that is the Federal Reserve.

Once that confidence is lost, it is gone baby gone

Remember what the USD is backed by…

Confidence

Will, and can she pull the trigger???

#264 Ronaldo on 11.07.15 at 11:53 pm

#250 BS on 11.07.15 at 8:49 pm

”Irrelevant that people in China are struggling to heat their 100 square ft shack and Al Gore wants them to stop burning coal while he has a $30,000 per year utility bill?”

Here are some stats that should cause people to sit up and take notice.

Coal consumption has increased by more than 70% from 4.6 billion tonnes in 2000 to 7.876 billion tonnes in 2013 and expected to grow by more than 2% per year for the forseable future.

China is the largest importer of coal in the world but that only represents 5% of their total consumption.

To give an example of just how much coal 7.876 billion tonnes represents, it is a trainload of coal that would circle the earth 31.5 times. And that is annually. China’s portion alone would circle the earth 13 times.

What would be interesting to know is what percent does Canada contribute to total world pollution. I suspect we are but a wee speck when considering the above statistics.

#265 Smoking Man on 11.08.15 at 12:02 am

#263 SWL1976 on 11.07.15 at 11:40 pm
Like I said earlier things are twisted when the President of Russia acts like a true Statesmen and the President of America lacks credibility.

http://www.sott.net/article/288204-Play-time-is-over-children-Putins-message-to-the-Western-elites-is-most-important-since-Churchills-Iron-Curtain-speech

While Yellen can baulk all she wants about interest rates, many, many people the world over are beginning to really see through the shell game that is the Federal Reserve.

Once that confidence is lost, it is gone baby gone

Remember what the USD is backed by…

Confidence

Will, and can she pull the trigger???
….

Obama not as bad as you think…he’s taken on the machine, and I bet Putin is in on it with him.

The deal with Iran. Letting Russa do the heavey lifting in Syria… phyco NutAndYahoo, McCain pissed out of there minds…

My theory, A Nectonite, lover of all sane humans flew to Russia and Washington, and said.

Get your shit together boys or else…

#266 BlackDog on 11.08.15 at 12:27 am

@FreedomFirst#259

WTF is wrong with you?

#267 Freeman on 11.08.15 at 2:16 am

To ANYONE who thinks Global Warming is a scam or a hoax, just go up to the far north and take a look at how the permafrost is melting at amazing speeds. The trees that stood up straight for hundreds of years are now all falling down or are at weird angles due to the ground below them melting, something that never happened before. These leaning trees are called “DRUNK TREES”.

Of course there will be people who will swear that the Earth is flat and not round, but they are idiots aren’t they?

#268 Vampire studies GMST 454 on 11.08.15 at 2:44 am

239 Timing – gotta agree with you. A very strange person.
Just scroll baby, scroll!

#269 Leo Trollstoy on 11.08.15 at 4:01 am

#261 Chris on 11.07.15 at 10:55 pm

Krugman is a left wing hack. Biased and No credibility.

Obama won the Nobel too.

Both are clowns.

#270 SWL1976 on 11.08.15 at 9:27 am

#267 Freeman

To ANYONE who thinks Global Warming is a scam or a hoax, just go up to the far north and take a look at how the permafrost is melting at amazing speeds

I just happen to be north of the Tiaga, or the Fort Mac area for those who do not follow the entertaining ramblings of WUL, and I was stunned by the warmth of the November sun yesterday. It felt more like a warm spring day here than the onset of a cold dark winter.

Anyways, I couldn’t help but picture a Matthew McConaughey type Washed up lawyer driving down Franklin Ave narrating the flaws in the local housing numbers in the warm afternoon sun.

SM – If Putin is on it he deserves an Oscar. I don’t doubt anything at this point, but I don’t think he’s in on it. Obama has been a complete lackey to the real crazies and sadly I think he is also just now realizing how badly he has been played. Putin is the wildcard that the elites – the real crazies – wish they had under their thumb.

#271 Smoking Man on 11.08.15 at 9:31 am

#267 Freeman on 11.08.15 at 2:16 am
To ANYONE who thinks Global Warming is a scam or a hoax, just go up to the far north and take a look at how the permafrost is melting at amazing speeds. The trees that stood up straight for hundreds of years are now all falling down or are at weird angles due to the ground below them melting, something that never happened before. These leaning trees are called “DRUNK TREES”.

Of course there will be people who will swear that the Earth is flat and not round, but they are idiots aren’t they?
…..

Anyone who thinks global warming is real gives me a visual of happy stupud cows being coaxed to walk the plank to the economic kill floor.

http://www.climatedepot.com/

#272 Smoking Man on 11.08.15 at 9:42 am

Now this is a real teacher.

http://www.thefederalistpapers.org/us/professors-epic-class-intro-has-gone-viral-heres-why

Welcome back to class, students! I am Mike Adams your criminology professor here at UNC-Wilmington. Before we get started with the course I need to address an issue that is causing problems here at UNCW and in higher education all across the country. I am talking about the growing minority of students who believe they have a right to be free from being offended. If we don’t reverse this dangerous trend in our society there will soon be a majority of young people who will need to walk around in plastic bubble suits to protect them in the event that they come into contact with a dissenting viewpoint. That mentality is unworthy of an American. It’s hardly worthy of a Frenchman.

Let’s get something straight right now. You have no right to be unoffended. You have a right to be offended with regularity. It is the price you pay for living in a free society. If you don’t understand that you are confused and dangerously so. In part, I blame your high school teachers for failing to teach you basic civics before you got your diploma. Most of you went to the public high schools, which are a disaster. Don’t tell me that offended you. I went to a public high school.

Of course, your high school might not be the problem. It is entirely possible that the main reason why so many of you are confused about free speech is that piece of paper hanging on the wall right over there. Please turn your attention to that ridiculous document that is framed and hanging by the door. In fact, take a few minutes to read it before you leave class today. It is our campus speech code. It specifically says that there is a requirement that everyone must only engage in discourse that is “respectful.” That assertion is as ludicrous as it is illegal. I plan to have that thing ripped down from every classroom on campus before I retire.

One of my grandfathers served in World War I. My step-grandfather served in World War II. My sixth great grandfather enlisted in the American Revolution when he was only thirteen. These great men did not fight so we could simply relinquish our rights to the enemy within our borders. That enemy is the Marxists who run our public universities. If you are a Marxist and I just offended you, well, that’s tough. I guess they don’t make communists like they used to.

Unbelievably, a student once complained to the Department chairwoman that my mention of God and a Creator was a violation of Separation of Church and State. Let me be as clear as I possibly can: If any of you actually think that my decision to paraphrase the Declaration of Independence in the course syllabus is unconstitutional then you suffer from severe intellectual hernia.

Indeed, it takes hard work to become stupid enough to think the Declaration of Independence is unconstitutional. If you agree with the student who made that complaint then you are probably just an anti-religious zealot. Therefore, I am going to ask you to do exactly three things and do them in the exact order that I specify.

First, get out of my class. You can fill out the drop slip over at James Hall. Just tell them you don’t believe in true diversity and you want to be surrounded by people who agree with your twisted interpretation of the Constitution simply because they are the kind of people who will protect you from having your beliefs challenged or your feelings hurt.

#273 Ontario's Left Coast on 11.08.15 at 9:42 am

#249 ANON on 11.07.15 at 8:45 pm
#240 Ontario’s Left Coast on 11.07.15 at 7:38 pm

I’m not a cottager at heart…

Woodstoves etc. are still available but I couldn’t believe how militant my insurance broker was about documentation, pictures, code fidelity etc. It’s pretty much the only thing they asked about.

#274 Chris on 11.08.15 at 10:46 am

Perhaps someone can offer a more nuanced argument against Paul Krugman’s belief that interest rates should not be raised, other than “he is a hack.” Job numbers did exceed expectations and wages grew 2.5% over the previous year, but wage growth is still below pre-crisis levels and core inflation is still below the Fed’s target level. Based on this, Paul Krugman’s view that interest rates should not be raised is perfectly legitimate.

#275 Nora Lenderby on 11.08.15 at 10:55 am

#269 Leo Trollstoy on 11.08.15 at 4:01 am
#261 Chris on 11.07.15 at 10:55 pm
Krugman is a left wing hack. Biased and No credibility. Obama won the Nobel too. Both are clowns.

Ooh, troll me now! Troll me now! :-)

#276 Prairieboy43 on 11.08.15 at 11:03 am

Isn’t Victoria home of the Newly Wed & Nearly Dead?

#277 Prairieboy43 on 11.08.15 at 11:11 am

#267 @Freeman. Last time I was up North. Inuvik, Tuktoyuktuk. There were no tree’s. Maybe 6′-10′ trees. Permafrost yes. Wonder how the aboveground sewer system is performing? HeaveHo!

#278 For those about to flop... on 11.08.15 at 11:32 am

SwL1976 I just happen to be north of the Tiaga, or the Fort Mac area for those who do not follow the entertaining ramblings of WUL, and I was stunned by the warmth of the November sun yesterday. It felt more like a warm spring day here than the onset of a cold dark winter.

Anyways, I couldn’t help but picture a Matthew McConaughey type Washed up lawyer driving down Franklin Ave narrating the flaws in the local housing numbers in the warm afternoon sun.

///////////////////////////////////////

Geez are you complimenting my post or just plagiarising me. If your not gonna give me any credit than get your own stupid thoughts,these ones are mine.

#279 family beagle on 11.08.15 at 11:51 am

#267 Freeman on 11.08.15 at 2:16 am
To ANYONE who thinks Global Warming is a scam or a hoax, just go up to the far north and take a look at how the permafrost is melting at amazing speeds. The trees that stood up straight for hundreds of years are now all falling down or are at weird angles due to the ground below them melting, something that never happened before. These leaning trees are called “DRUNK TREES”.

Of course there will be people who will swear that the Earth is flat and not round, but they are idiots aren’t they?

…….

On a whim I searched ‘historical earth temperatures’ and looked at charts. Some of the charts include solar activity, carbon, ice ages, etc. Some of the past anomalies looked quite dramatic, especially during the Maunder and Dalton solar periods. Anyhoo, the trend line since 500 million years BP definitely appears cooler. This most recent warming stint, since the last ice age, maybe our last great hope before we sink further. Of note, the Minoan and Roman temperature spikes which exceeded the current one, as I suspect they had more volatile volcanic activity. I guess this is all why bone hunters find ferns and dinosaurs in the fossil record up north. I know some people don’t like change, but change is coming. It’s going to get hotter, a lot hotter over the next 20k years. Then it’s going to get very cold, over the following 5 million years. Thank Zeus we aren’t having the hot flash they had back in the Mesozoic Era after the Permian period. Temperature shot up like a bottle rocket.

#280 SWL1976 on 11.08.15 at 12:00 pm

#278 For those about to flop… Definitely not plagiarising. That was a shout out, but I couldn’t remember who mentioned it and didn’t have time to dig

Classic material For those about to flop… and I always enjoy your posts

#281 Renter's Revenge! on 11.08.15 at 12:02 pm

@274 Chris

Maybe the old links between interest rates and inflation, employment and wage growth are broken or different than they were in Keynes’ day. If lowering rates doesn’t increase inflation, than maybe raising rates won’t kill it.

The world is a different place now. For example, maybe in the past, lowering rates discouraged saving and encouraged borrowing and investment, leading to industrial growth, more jobs, higher wages and inflation.

But now encouraging investment with lower rates leads to better technology, reducing costs of production, replacement of human labour with robots, increased export of jobs to lower cost countries due to greater ease of shipping products long distances, all leading to lower job and wage growth and less inflation or even deflation.

#282 family beagle on 11.08.15 at 12:03 pm

Nice tombstone. Yeah, I saw the pic and thought, hey there’s a quality countertop that got away. Actually, now that there’s political strife, Egyptian marble is the hot topper. Granite is as last year as arborite, so middle class.

Jobs/interest rates, also concerns of the middle class. Tra la.

#283 Harbour on 11.08.15 at 12:16 pm

WCS is getting known to the general public in the U.S. by Obama as dirty sludge.

#284 Smoking Man on 11.08.15 at 12:44 pm

OK, let me get this right…

The usa navy decided to test missles over Los Angeles.

Bahahaha

Its Ashman going for smoke’s, the idiot forgot to fly in stealth mode.

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-08/california-missile-test-sparks-ufo-social-media-frenzy/6922594

#285 For those about to flop... on 11.08.15 at 12:46 pm

#280 SWL1976 on 11.08.15 at 12:00 pm
#278 For those about to flop… Definitely not plagiarising. That was a shout out, but I couldn’t remember who mentioned it and didn’t have time to dig

Classic material For those about to flop… and I always enjoy your posts.
/////////////////////////////////////////////
I didn’t mean to sound like a prat ,it’s just that I try to write original thoughts and material and there are a lot of people on here that write the same old bollocks time after time.
You know what I’m talking about? You see their name tag and you already know what rented donkey they are going to beat.
I am one of the least educated people on the blog and if a dumbo like me can contribute something original than there is no reason for the intellects not to spark some new thoughts .
Thanks for the reply and were all good here now.

#286 Victor V on 11.08.15 at 12:54 pm

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/11/janet-yellens-quiet-revolution-213331

Yellen’s problem, basically, is this: Unemployment is statistically very low at about 5 percent, more than low enough to justify an increase in rates. In the past, as the labor market tightened (i.e. unemployment went down), wages and inflation began to rise. Today, that just isn’t happening. The Fed and its staff, like any good economists, rely on past patterns as a guide to future outcomes. And now, those patterns are no longer working: Wages are no longer following productivity upwards, and thus even many nominally employed people still feel poorer. At the same time, inflation appears all but nonexistent, despite many warnings to the contrary. So how can you justify raising rates?

Thus Yellen’s challenge—and, in truth, our collective challenge—is that the standards that are supposed to guide monetary policy appear to have collapsed.

#287 Doug in London on 11.08.15 at 1:10 pm

@Tony, post #182:
This is what I mean about boomers as they age don’t think clearly.
————————————————————-
I’m a boomer, 54 years old and turning 55 later this year. As I get older, more experienced, and have seen many cycles of the ebb and flow of many sectors of the economy I have a far better understanding of what’s going on than when I was younger. I don’t own a house in the GTA but if I did I would know BEYOND ANY SHADOW OF DOUBT that NOW is a once in a lifetime chance to make a KILLING selling my house. The present bubble prices are an anomaly, I know that from experience, something you get when you are my age, having seen real estate go bust before like in the 1990s. So why aren’t more boomers cashing in their winning lottery tickets? I don’t know, but think they just aren’t paying attention to what’s going on around them.

#288 Doug in London on 11.08.15 at 1:24 pm

@Patrick, post #185:
The other 5 billion people on this planet don’t give a shit. They just want to have food and cars and iPads, just like us.
————————————————————
That’s quite true, but it could change in years to come when more of these 5 billion people are affected by extreme weather events, which are becoming more frequent and more severe. You’re right about the “gasoline greens”. If we, in the developed world want the rest of the world to do their part to reduce emissions causing climate change, we should be setting a better example.

#289 SWL1976 on 11.08.15 at 1:31 pm

#272 Smoking Man

Now this is a real teacher.

I agree that, that needs to be said and understood

Liberty will not descend to a people; a people must raise themselves to liberty; it is a blessing that must be earned before it can be enjoyed – Charles Caleb Colton

Most people are sleeping late, but the wake up call is now folks, and there are plenty of alarm bells ringing.

#290 gumboot princess on 11.08.15 at 2:19 pm

#282 family beagle

Loved your comment about the granite countertop that got away. (With all due respect for the Christmas cookie recipe and the mom who made them, of course.)

#291 TRT on 11.08.15 at 2:31 pm

Most price increases are artificial today. Read on to the end and I’ll tell you one way to save money. Guaranteed!

Airline duopoly is protected.
Telecom is protected.
Vertical integration of Oil Industry.
Vertical integration of media starting.
Taxi industry + Municipal politicians ‘partnership’
Dairy cartel.
BC Liquor Mafia.
ICBC autoplan licence moratorium.

List goes on and on..,

How to save? Ditch your $1000 iPhone and buy a Xiaomi smartphone and save 75%. Xiaomi is the 2nd largest (‘market cap’) company in the world behind Uber.

Making huge waves in China and about to make even bigger waves in India.

#292 For those about to flop... on 11.08.15 at 2:34 pm

Doug#287. So why aren’t more boomers cashing in their winning lottery tickets? I don’t know, but think they just aren’t paying attention to what’s going on around them.

///////////////////////////////////////

The only reason I can think of besides the fact that we are being constantly bombarded with propaganda that real estate only goes up is a lot of people as they get older crave familiarity and have probably been in these houses for a long time with a lot of memories.
They know they don’t have enough money for retirement but choose memories over money.

#293 jess on 11.08.15 at 2:36 pm

Self -sufficiency ? Is there such an existence?

aguifer under libya

The transport of pipe segments for the Great Manmade River in the Sahara desert, Libya: a network of pipes that supplies water from the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System, a fossil aquifer in the Sahara Desert of Libya. The Great Manmade River is the world’s largest irrigation project.
Recently the Great Man-made River Project (GMMR) in Libya began extracting substantial amounts of water from this aquifer, removing an estimated 2.37 km3 per year. This system is primarily used to supply water in the Kufra oasis.
The Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System (NSAS) is the world’s largest known fossil water aquifer system. It is located underground in the Eastern end of the Sahara Desert and spans the political boundaries of four countries in north-eastern Africa.[1] NSAS covers a land area spanning just over two million km2, including north-western Sudan, north-eastern Chad, south-eastern Libya, and most of Egypt. Containing an estimated 150,000 km3 of groundwater,[2] the significance of the NSAS as a potential water resource for future development programs in these countries is extraordinary. Recently the Great Man-made River Project (GMMR) in Libya began extracting substantial amounts of water from this aquifer, removing an estimated 2.37 km3 per year. This system is primarily used to supply water in the Kufra oasis.

Groundwater: the unknown resource
Marc Bierkens | 18 March 2013
http://www.thebrokeronline.eu/en/Blogs/Prioritising-Water/Groundwater-the-unknown-resource

#294 OXI in GREECE !! on 11.08.15 at 2:43 pm

#267 Freeman on 11.08.15 at 2:16 am
To ANYONE who thinks Global Warming is a scam or a hoax, just go up to the far north and take a look at how the permafrost is melting at amazing speeds. The trees that stood up straight for hundreds of years are now all falling down or are at weird angles due to the ground below them melting, something that never happened before. These leaning trees are called “DRUNK TREES”.

Of course there will be people who will swear that the Earth is flat and not round, but they are idiots aren’t they?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Tell that to the 250,000 Lama’s that FROZE TO DEATH in Peru. You know? Those animals with the 6 inch thick fur. Global Warming is a TOTAL SCAM. There are frozen cold temperatures being broken all over the world. The earth is more than just “the arctic and permafrost” you know. That is one of the scams about Global Warming. The earths magnetic field “moves”. Imagine that. And so does the cold sections of the earth. It takes place over time and has nothing to do with man and his Ford truck……

#295 kommykim on 11.08.15 at 3:19 pm

RE:

#250 BS on 11.07.15 at 8:49 pm
Al Gore wants them to stop burning coal while he has a $30,000 per year utility bill?

Credible link please.

#296 conan on 11.08.15 at 3:23 pm

The only people I know who deny climate change are those beholden to the oil industry.

2 temperature increase in the oceans means great white sharks potentially swimming to Quebec City.

That sounds like fun and also a good idea for sharknado 4 .

#297 BS on 11.08.15 at 3:31 pm

RE:
#250 BS on 11.07.15 at 8:49 pm
Al Gore wants them to stop burning coal while he has a $30,000 per year utility bill?
Credible link please.

Al Gore’s ‘Inconvenient Truth’? — A $30,000 Utility Bill

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/GlobalWarming/story?id=2906888

Armed with Gore’s utility bills for the last two years, the Tennessee Center for Policy Research charged Monday that the gas and electric bills for the former vice president’s 20-room home and pool house devoured nearly 221,000 kilowatt-hours in 2006, more than 20 times the national average of 10,656 kilowatt-hours.

“If this were any other person with $30,000-a-year in utility bills, I wouldn’t care,” says the Center’s 27-year-old president, Drew Johnson. “But he tells other people how to live and he’s not following his own rules.”

#298 Mark on 11.08.15 at 3:35 pm

“Yellen’s problem, basically, is this: Unemployment is statistically very low at about 5 percent, more than low enough to justify an increase in rates. “

Except that the 5% number is pretty much complete nonsense. The participation rate has fallen so much on account of involuntary unemployment and people having given up on looking that if adjusted to the same participation rate basis as in 2008, the official ‘unemployment’ rate would be in excess of 10%. And job quality is horrible, with most of the alleged “jobs” going to people over 55. Under 55 males actually lost significant net jobs over the same interval. Even worse if you consider that guest worker visa issuance is disproportionally comprised of under-55 males.

Additionally, there is very little credence to the theory that low unemployment is a precursor to inflation. The economy was down to an ‘official’ unemployment rate close to 2% in the 1999-2000 era (at the height of the Internet bubble), yet inflation didn’t rear its ugly head.

Central bankers that run overly tight interest rate policy, as we’ve probably seen in Canada over the past 30-40 years, are really robbing the nation of economic potential. For instance, the raise to 1% over the past few years probably was completely inappropriate in light of the fact that Canada’s housing market rolled over 2 and a half years ago not on account of rising interest rates, but rather because “F” decreased the availability of CMHC subprime mortgage insurance.

So if the Fed ends up hiking, it is likely that it will be a complete mistake in hindsight. But that probably won’t stop them.

#299 Mark on 11.08.15 at 5:01 pm

“If lowering rates doesn’t increase inflation, than maybe raising rates won’t kill it. “

Higher rates may very well induce more inflation on account of increasing the hurdle rate to investment in capital equipment and plant. Capital investment, of course, being the long-term precursor to deflation. Cut off capex, and of course, inflation starts to appear as the plant wears out and isn’t replaced. Which, in turn, often causes interest rates to rise even further, causing even more inflation for the same reason. A self-reinforcing cycle.

Likewise, higher interest rates depress currencies over the long term. Even though, in the short term, there might be a bounce as the dummies blindly chase the “higher interest rate”.

Investment is the root of lower inflation/deflation. So anything that causes people to invest less, such as higher interest rates (ie: a higher hurdle rate), will cause higher inflation.

#300 Victor V on 11.08.15 at 9:40 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/us-business/former-fed-chair-bernanke-warns-of-outside-threats-in-interest-rate-decision/article27169760/

When Janet Yellen leads the Federal Reserve to its first interest rate hike in nearly a decade, widely expected as early as next month, she can count on at least one prominent economy watcher to avoid second-guessing the decision.

That would be Ben Bernanke, her predecessor as Fed chairman, who led the desperate retreat to near-zero rates in December, 2008, at the height of the worst financial crisis since the Great Recession. They have remained at rock bottom ever since.

Mr. Bernanke, who left his Fed post last year after eight tumultuous years at the helm, is determined to follow the tradition of former central bankers never commenting on policies adopted after their departure. But he does observe that raising rates is going to be a tougher call than many analysts believe, because of external threats.

“The main challenges for the U.S. right now come from outside our borders. A slowing global economy and potential financial risks around the world are probably the main headwind,” Mr. Bernanke said in an interview from Washington. “That’s essentially the balancing act that the Fed and other policy-makers have to address. Is the momentum in the domestic economy sufficient to overcome the drags that are coming from abroad?”

#301 Squish on 11.08.15 at 10:41 pm

#145 Bram on 11.07.15 at 1:38 am

“604 home owner here, who bought in 2013.
If cbc’s news item on +47.7% median price in 2 yrs (for east-vancouver) is true, I am not too worried. If prices crash to half, I’m just back at where I started, no big deal. It helps that my equity is large.”

________

Quick math lesson, ignoring any fees, costs, interest payments etc. outside the very basic equation: gaining 50% and then losing 50% does not put you back where you started.

If you have 100 dollars, a fifty percent gain puts you at $150. A subsequent loss of 50% means you’re then winding up in the end with just $75.

#302 Patrick on 11.10.15 at 11:25 am

#288 Doug in London on 11.08.15 at 1:24 pm
That’s quite true, but it could change in years to come when more of these 5 billion people are affected by extreme weather events, which are becoming more frequent and more severe. You’re right about the “gasoline greens”. If we, in the developed world want the rest of the world to do their part to reduce emissions causing climate change, we should be setting a better example.
_________________________________

I was wondering if somebody would point out my seemingly contradictory stance. Here’s the deal. It’s not setting an example. Look at India’s expansion of coal power plants and China’s understated coal consumption. They don’t care. We would be morons to cripple ourselves with carbon taxes and green energy policies.

I consider myself a Climate Change Realist. Climate change is REAL and nothing is REALLY going to be done about it.

In Canada, we are barely a drop in the bucket in terms of total GHG emissions. Our actions have zero impact. We shouldn’t have been the leaders in Ontario with Green Energy Act. We screwed it up and lost some of our trade advantage. Let America lead the way, they are bigger and can absorb a screw-up, like Ontario did, much better.

#303 Amando on 11.10.15 at 12:05 pm

Hi Garth, Agree completely with your economic analysis, but I need to point out that CPD has not exactly had a stellar performance since October 2007 (the earliest date I could get pricing in Yahoo quotes).

CDP has returned a total of 8% (less than 1% per year) over that period INCLUDING DIVIDENDS. In the interim you’ve also had drops as large as 28%. So anyone living off of the dividends has been eating up their capital. Maybe I’m missing something, but this doesn’t seem like such a great investment.

Here are the sad stats:

Max. Drawdown: -28.02% on 11/28/08
Total Gain: +8.00%
CAR: +0.96%
Ulcer Index: 6.53
Winning Years: 55.56%