It’s all good

SAFE modified

US adds 271,000 jobs, making Fed hike done deal. Link.

In the last 12 months people in this northern paradise – with the shiny new PM who will solve all issues because he’s gender-sensitive and smoky hot – have borrowed $75 billion more to buy houses. That’s new debt. We increased mortgage indebtedness by 6% in a year when inflation was 1.4%, real wages went down and our biggest export industry lost 54,000 jobs. Brilliant.

No wonder the boss at the Bank of Canada found it necessary to hit the speaking tour with a single overriding message: we’re not responsible for people’s bad choices.

Of course your mom, BIL and all the guys at work think it’s okay to borrow your booty off because houses always appreciate. Realtors facilitate this game with the kind of reports published this week in Toronto and Vancouver – touting record sales, record profits and up, up, up.

Toronto Real Estate Board President Mark McLean announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 8,804 home sales through TREB’s MLS® System in October 2015.  This is the best result on record for the month of October. “It is clear that many GTA households remain upbeat about home ownership because owning a home represents a high quality, long-term investment.  We will see a big, new record this year for home sales reported through TREB’s MLS® System,” said Mr. McLean.

See? Up’s the only direction realtors know. And while average prices have been popping as mortgage rates scrap bottom and household debt balloons to new levels of turgidity, nobody actually makes money until they sell, and stick it in the bank. So if real estate board reports of rollicking sales and frolicking sellers have you convinced debt is good, consider a few things housing analyst Ross Kay whispered to me yesterday:

  • Only 28% of all listings active in the GTA during October sold.  20% didn’t sell and were removed from the market while 52% of buyers are still trying to sell.
  • The best 25% of the homes selling in October caused the average reported price to increase by 0.61%, the smallest gain in seven months.
  • In the City of Toronto itself only a quarter of all active listings during the month sold while one in five were withdrawn, with 55% of those listed still for sale.
  • The best 25% of the homes for sale in Toronto on caused the average price to increase 0.2%, the smallest growth of the entire year.
  • And high prices are actually slowing the market. On average, people now stay 6.35 years in their existing home before moving. Every month this number increases, “as the market continues to slow behind misleading sales data.”
  • And what about those “record sales” numbers? Also misleading. Six years ago 8,476 houses sold during October (2009), when there were 14% fewer households than today. So for the realtors to claim “the best result on record for the month”, sales would have to nudge 10,000.

Well, you should also know that Urbanation just reported sales of new condos in Toronto fell 13% in the latest quarter. Sales of detached houses in Toronto are actually lower than last year by almost 10%. And, as previously reported, soon places like Mississauga, Brampton, Vaughan and Burlington will be considering whether to double the already-painful land transfer tax – which in Toronto adds $32,200 to the cost of a million-dollar dump.

But if none of that concerns you – nor our slagging economy, falling dollar, deficit spending, cheap oil, roll-back of savings, job losses, higher taxes or our Twitter PM – dig in. If you crave debt, this is your country. What could possibly go wrong?

CARRIER modified  Two days ago I came across this picture of a disabled dog with a goofy smile and a kind owner. So it graced this blog yesterday. About that time Sheryl, a woman I do not know (living in San Diego), was in a dark place. She wrote me, and I wish to share her words with you.

Today I mourned the loss of our golden retriever Sasha, faithful friend and companion for almost 13 years. Monday we had to “put her down”.  The cancer and damage to her front leg was too far gone, with profound internal bleeding, swelling and pain.

Although she would smile, wag her tail and stagger to rise to greet us, I could see the suffering she tried so hard to hide behind her eyes.

I struggled with the thought of “putting her down”.  In my mind, heart and soul I instead envisioned us “raising her up” to God, to a place where she would be happy, whole, loved and running around on all 4 legs.

Monday morning came.  Sasha refused to be carried in to the vet’s office from the back of our old beat up Jeep, but limped in with dignity and pride by her daddy’s side.  Her passing was fast but peaceful, on a warm, soft pink blanket they had put down for her.  My torment and sadness was overwhelming.  Did we do the right thing? Should we have waited longer?  Could we have done more?  DID I JUST KILL MY DOG?!

Tuesday the numbness set in, feeling her loss everywhere around us, and after a freak night of lightening, thunderstorms and blackouts, I comforted myself with the knowledge at least she was safe from the storm.  I prayed that when she was able, Sasha would send us a sign that she was fine and whole and happy.  And that she loved us still.

This evening after another draining day dealing with work, never-ending problems and challenges, I decided to check out one of my favorite blogs by Garth.  His postings were always so insightful and amusing and the distraction would do me well.

I clicked on today’s link and came face to face with Sasha.  She was being lifted up to God (Angels come in all shapes and forms apparently!) and had the biggest smile on her face, letting me know she was happy and well.

My sister and I have an ongoing joke about our “backpack of life” and how we have a tendency to fill it with heavy rocks and stones of regret, loss and sadness which weigh us down and keep us from being happy.   Sasha just showed me what should be in my backpack.  Love and joy don’t weigh a thing.

What’s in your backpack?

259 comments ↓

#1 DJ on 11.05.15 at 6:01 pm

Love these real stats – would you consider doing a monthly “real numbers” update to counteract the Frankenumbers?

#2 DJ on 11.05.15 at 6:01 pm

My word – am I really first?

#3 Lillooet,BC on 11.05.15 at 6:01 pm

It’s all good indeedl

#4 ARP on 11.05.15 at 6:07 pm

My backpack is filled with Hydro One shares. :-)

#5 mitzerboy aka queencity kid on 11.05.15 at 6:07 pm

beautiful words garth

I just took my old boy in to the vet and took him over the rainbow bridge a few days ago.
The way they go out with the needle is a quick peaceful experience for me and my 14 year old dog in pain.

#6 Darryl on 11.05.15 at 6:08 pm

Wow! What a great story to end today’s blog… teaches you there’s more to life than our piles of money. Thanks Garth and Sheryl.

#7 Calgary's Housing Market on 11.05.15 at 6:15 pm

Calgary’s housing market could be in the early stages of a price crash with houses like these selling for 60% below assessed value.

Of course these two sales were not included in the Calgary board’s monthly stats. There are probably more examples like these. This brings up the question: what else is the Calgary board doing with their stats to create the illusion that prices haven’t fallen much?

We can safely conclude that house prices in Calgary have fallen more than what the board’s (questionable) stats indicate. Naturally, the stats released by all other Canadian real estate boards must also be questioned since they are all part of the same index.

Conclusion: Calgary’s housing market is in serious trouble.

Falling house prices will further weaken and chill Calgary’s economy. This will negatively impact incomes and household finances of families for many years, helping to push house prices down and keep them down. Rising interest rates will do the same. And $45 oil…

Whether Calgary goes through an all-out crash or something a little slower, there will be a deep price correction. As a result, many Calgary families will be stuck dealing with the devastating financial consequences of a major price correction for many years. This is what happens when housing bubbles deflate.

This will teach generations of Calgarians what Americans learned about buying real estate at inflated prices.

Calgary’s economy and housing market have a history of boom and bust cycles. Calgary’s housing market crashed in the 1980s along with Edmonton, Victoria and Vancouver. Toronto crashed in the 1990s.

Calgary’s most recent housing bust began in 2007 and ended in 2009, only after interest rates were suddenly dropped from near normal levels to emergency levels. (By far) the most powerful source of housing market stimulus was thrown at the housing market at that time.

. . . . . . . . . . . . .Calgary House Prices. . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . (September 2007 to June 2009). . . . . . . . .
. . . . .(Percent Below September 2007 Price Level). . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . 0%. . . *. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 0.5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 1.0%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 1.5% . . . . . *. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 2.0%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 2.5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 3.0% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . *. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 3.5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 4.0%. . . . . . . . . *. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 4.5% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 5.0% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 5.5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 6.0%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 6.5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .*. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 7.0%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 7.5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 8.0%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 8.5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
– 9.0%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .*. . . . . . . . . .
– 9.5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-10.0% . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-10.5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-11.0%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-11.5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-12.0%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-12.5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .*. . . . . . .
-13.0%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-13.5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-14.0%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-14.5%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-15.0%. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . *. .
——————————————————————————————-
. . . . . . . .Sep. .Dec. .Mar. .Jun. .Sep. .Dec. .Mar. .Jun. .
. . . . . . . . 07. . .07. . 08. . .08. . .08. . 08. . .09. . .09. .

(Source: Teranet’s index)
(link)

(Victoria Real Estate Update)

#8 Broke Dick on 11.05.15 at 6:17 pm

#195 MF on 11.05.15 at 5:35 pm
#188 Roial1 on 11.05.15 at 4:40 pm

Garth has gone on and on about how rents are tied to incomes. My statement was in reference to stagnant incomes. Therefore rents can’t rise too much. Get it?
=============================

MF that is very naive of you.
Rents like house prices are based on supply and demand.
If it was based solely on what people could afford how in the world can you explain SFH prices in Van??

#9 Todd on 11.05.15 at 6:18 pm

Kitchener Waterloo is down yr over yr sales in seven of the last ten months. Only months with increased sales were March, April, and May. Also the amount of sales data that is shared on the KWAR site has dropped off as well. Looks like it’s unraveling here too.

#10 JSS on 11.05.15 at 6:19 pm

I should’ve went to school to become a shareholder, rather than receive training to become an employee.

Telus: Dividend increase + 5%;
1,500 employee positions cut

http://www.thestar.com/business/2015/11/05/telecom-giant-telus-cuts-1500-jobs.html

#11 Jim dandy on 11.05.15 at 6:19 pm

Had an interesting conversation with a woman at work who just bought her first condo at the tender age of 50. She was already slagging “renters ” and beaming with pride at becoming socially accepted by her peers. I asked her what had changed. Did she kick holes in the walls and leave garbage strewn about before becoming an owner? Nope. Keep pitbulls tied up out back with the old cars and refrigerators? Nope. Actually there were no quantifiable differences excepted a marked decrease in cash flow and quality of life.

In the same conversation we talked about a former coworker who had to come out of retirement to pay for a rather large assessment on his condo, this after paying a rather large assessment a month before retirement. Late 60’s and in poor health, back at the millstone again. Grist for the RE mill perhaps.

Not for me thanks. I’d much rather go into my golden years with money in the bank and greater mobility while I’ve still got time on this planet.

#12 Muttley O'Toole on 11.05.15 at 6:21 pm

You can find all great things in Garth’s blog – what a wonderful end story.
Of course everything Garth wrote beforehand has gone out the window.

#13 Broke Dick on 11.05.15 at 6:23 pm

nobody actually makes money until they sell!

No reason to sell yet in the 6. The trend is your friend, my friend.

#14 Kender on 11.05.15 at 6:24 pm

Telus laying off 1500 people.

Likely many have mortgages, and probably not small mortgages considering Telus pays good salaries.

Severance will end in 2 weeks to 4 months. After that, a few weeks of panic and some houses will go on the market.

1- Energy patch layoffs
2- National Bank layoffs
3- Bank of Nova Scotia layoffs
4- Telus layoffs
5- Next?

Other companies will do layoffs, because they can now point to those blue chips layoffs.

#15 DisgustMadeMePost on 11.05.15 at 6:25 pm

Well, through the haze of my tears… Our golden is almost 12 … Trying not to go there..

On another note… Heard today that Telus is dropping 1500 jobs!! I hope they didnt all get great big mortgages…

#16 Vundo on 11.05.15 at 6:27 pm

Debt is not always bad thing. I would never have furthered my education after high school if I had to pay for everything upfront from whatever I could have saved from my minimum wage job. I went into debt in order to get a shot at a completely different tier of employment. It worked. I could have done something requiring less skill and put away more dollars into a portfolio, but I would be regretting that today now that a pulse no longer guarantees employment in Alberta. As it stands, I have no regrets. Slaying my debt used to be for the end goal of being able to qualify for a mortgage on a house. Before getting there I learned why not to take my shiny new freedom from debt and immediately surrender it to the bank in exchange for a single asset. I am grateful for what I have learned, and I am blessed.

#17 Leo Trollstoy on 11.05.15 at 6:28 pm

Amazing story Garth. Thank you for sharing Sheryl’s story.

RIP Sasha

#18 Wall Of Worry on 11.05.15 at 6:31 pm

Garth…why is it that you point out the short sighted fixation Canadians have with home ownership and why the broader data would suggest the peril of such yet you refuse to acknowledge that 10 years of sub par growth in the US with government debt growing from $5 T to $19 T is somehow different? Can you explain how the US can support interest rate increases with those numbers? Or do you just know that somehow this time it is different?

#19 Ben on 11.05.15 at 6:32 pm

Just a lovely story from Sasha’s mom. Thank you for sharing.

And thank you for all the helpful guidance, Garth.

#20 Nick on 11.05.15 at 6:33 pm

“But if none of that concerns you – nor our slagging economy, falling dollar, deficit spending, cheap oil, roll-back of savings, job losses, higher taxes or our Twitter PM – dig in. If you crave debt, this is your country. What could possibly go wrong?”

slagging economy? – Says who? Sunny days are back
deficit spending? – it’s wise to spend in a downturn, we can save when the boom returns
cheap oil? – good for Canadians to heat their homes and fill their gas tanks
falling dollar? – great for tourists, movie industry, and exports
higher taxes? – the rich can afford it
job losses? – Those Liberal social programs will come in handy. Or apply for a job with the Federal gov, I hear they’re hiring ;)

#21 Paul Veryze on 11.05.15 at 6:34 pm

But, but, the CBC says prices are soaring in Van and TO!

#22 JG on 11.05.15 at 6:37 pm

I dread the day when I have to put my dog down.

#23 Frank on 11.05.15 at 6:38 pm

So many numbers, so little context.

The meaningful part of the post was about Sasha. That took my back 4 years ago when we said good bye to our best friend of 14 years. The pain is so immense. Now it’s a distant memory but reading stories like this brings it back for a minute. Then it brings back good memories for the rest of the day. The pleasure makes the pain worth it.

#24 Cici on 11.05.15 at 6:39 pm

So Beautiful Sharon!

And I know how you feel…had a similar experience after my Grandpa died. He was obsessed with gardening (as am I), and used to bring me Hollyhock seeds every year for my birthday, which we would plant together.

Just after he died, I got a call from the city to let me know that a space had finally opened up for me in a community garden (I had put my name on the list 5 years prior and had almost given up hope of every getting in).

Imagine my surprise when the master gardener showed me to my lot: it was full of white hollyhocks, all in bloom. Yes, I know, it sounds hokey, but I know it was my Grandpa reaching out to me ;-)

#25 tammy on 11.05.15 at 6:40 pm

Beautiful story. Thanks for sharing.

#26 Cici on 11.05.15 at 6:40 pm

Oops, meant Sheryl…

#27 young & foolish on 11.05.15 at 6:42 pm

“My backpack is filled with Hydro One shares. :-)”

Hahahaha ….. I bought a whole whack today as well !!!

#28 tom on 11.05.15 at 6:46 pm

DJ, eh no sorry..

I don’t often agree with Garth’s train of thought especially on the US economy, but I find myself thinking he may for the first time be correct with his US interest rate call. Janet Yellen is now under intense pressure from all sides to raise interest rates. Even Trump is calling her out! Raising rates is something she should have done in her first month in office. Her problem now is horrible data coming through, showing that indeed the economy is once again spiralling downwards. (I spent 9 months in the US recently, it’s far from rosy)

Many, myself included believe there has never actually been a true recovery and the last 7 years have seen the greatest transfer of wealth from the lower & middle classes, pass to the ruling elite. How can it be that sales of luxury yachts, Ferrari’s bentley’s and multi million dollar properties are at an all time high? Seriously how many of us know anyone capable of making a said purchase? even the dream is dead. They have succeeded in killing our dreams.

Now we will see a calamity of events as the Fed push the button and markets react to the news. I actually don’t have the slightest idea how this will play out. (Garth will know) It might be temporary and she will rush to reduce rates once more following the impact of the slight rise. One things for sure, there will be turmoil in the markets, precious metals will fluctuate and fortunes will be won and lost.

We have to look to the past for answers and to Countries like Japan that have played with interest rates and money printing. I’m left with the impression we are slowly bearing witness to the decline of the West, yes we are slowing dying. We will all need to get used to a new norm of less, equalling more. It is time for our friends in the East to enjoy their industrial revolution and all of the pathetic consumerism that it brings.

good luck..

#29 robert james on 11.05.15 at 6:47 pm

Dogs are heart breakers as they just don`t live long enough..In 2006 I had to put down my big yellow lab called Buddy because of lung cancer at the age of 13 and a half.. I still havn`t got over him yet.. I couldn`t bare to get another yellow lab so I got a chocolate lab I called Joey.. Now Joey is 9 and a half so in a few years I will have to go through it all over again.. They both probably had the best life a dog could have,, maybe if I were a butcher it may have been better,,don`t know.. They get the easy part ,get the needle and go to sleep while we are left thinking about them for the rest of our lives..

#30 tom on 11.05.15 at 6:48 pm

sorry correction

Yes DJ first! I missed your first post

#31 Retired WI Boomer on 11.05.15 at 6:51 pm

Wonderful story from Sheryl. I only hope someday, we can be able to use the same venue to terminate our life if filled with painful disease ourselves.

Humans can be so stupid, griped by religious intolerances, of whatever form.

That said, trust your RE stats, NOT. Anyone believing RE press on price, appreciation deserves what they bought.

Used car peddlers, as well as those running for elected offices often fall under the same genre. Whoops!! Didn’t you just ‘buy’ one of them, peddling promises of sunshine unicorns, and rainbows?

Reminds me of a bad Lesley Gore 45 from the 1960’s, but that’s noise for another post. Enjoy your new world.

#32 Canadian on 11.05.15 at 6:55 pm

So with Trudeau going with throne speech in December and having a parliament session before 2016 I think your TFSA 10K on Jan 4 idea is going to be DOA Garth. Thoughts?

Only if there’s a budget. At least, that is the usual. — Garth

#33 Admirer on 11.05.15 at 6:55 pm

The story of Sasha was extremely touching.

But, you’re kind of losing me Garth. Everyday you bombard us with your talk of gloom and doom. About the housing market, the politics, the household debt, job losses, the dollar. And, most everything else I read is about how stocks are super expensive, bonds are screwed, world growth is slow and getting slower.

You used to kid about men with tin foil hats and rations in their cellars. But, your blog is making me feel that you’re stockpiling your own pantry now.

How about some inspiration one of these days – economically I’m talking about.

#34 april on 11.05.15 at 7:02 pm

Garth, is there any chance that you could do the same sort of analysis for the Vancouver area?

#35 Basil Fawlty on 11.05.15 at 7:02 pm

Per Rueters, Janet Yellen has told a House of Representatives committee that the possibility of negative interest rates is on the table.
This interest rate issue is as clear as mud.

She said nothing of the sort. I thought you were an informed person. — Garth

#36 Diogi on 11.05.15 at 7:07 pm

I love dogs. And a very sweet story.

But, have you seen the cost of caring for pets in Canada lately. Raw organic food, grooming, day care, boarding and most importantly.

The way the economy is going We won’t be able to afford pets. But, who cares – us renters can’t have pets anyways.

#37 Exurban on 11.05.15 at 7:15 pm

Voters around the democratic world face the same problem; if they elect the party/politician that is most favored by the media, that same media will avoid holding that party/politican accountable.

One obvious example: the Obama Administration’s moves in Egypt, Libya and Syria have not had positive results, to put it mildly. The major American media have very little to say about that; it’s not hard to imagine how different things would be if another party was responsible.

Our media’s torrid love affair with Justin does not bode well.

#38 Jimmy on 11.05.15 at 7:16 pm

What’s in your backpack?
Watch “Up in the Air” with Clooney and Vera Farmiga.
Great movie!

#39 I am the Babblemaster on 11.05.15 at 7:21 pm

“No wonder the boss at the Bank of Canada found it necessary to hit the speaking tour with a single overriding message: we’re not responsible for people’s bad choices.” – Garth

——————————————————–

The sheer hypocrisy! Poloz is an a&&. The previous regime (and the BoC is just a pawn of the govt.) did everything in their power to whet the publics appetite and increase the price of housing. If govt. policy shouldn’t have any effect on people’s financial (or other) decisions, then maybe we can cut a lot of positions in all levels of govt. related to policy and governance.

#40 Marky on 11.05.15 at 7:27 pm

So after years of failed propoganda and wishful thinking, Victoria Housing Update has been forced to throw in the towel and move on to what she sees as greener patures. She’s now “Calgary’s Housing Update”.

#41 Nemesis on 11.05.15 at 7:28 pm

#ForSasha&Sheryl… #CrossCountryDetours…

https://youtu.be/ACXJvI4XlwU?t=1m35s

#42 Basil Fawlty on 11.05.15 at 7:33 pm

Okay, here is the quote from Janet Yellen. ” Potentially anything – including negative interest rates – would be on the table. But we would have to study carefully how they would work in the U.S. context.”

Interpret her words as one sees fit, but please save the chastising.

Out of context, therefore meaningless. She did not say negative rates are ‘on the table.’ They are not. — Garth

#43 Freedom First on 11.05.15 at 7:45 pm

The Boss of the Bank of Canada; “we’re not responsible for people’s bad choices.” True. And individuals who make bad choices will be the sole bearers of all consequences resulting from their decisions. Individuals do not fall under the umbrella of “too big to fail.” This is very very good. As is profiting from ones decisions. I can’t do anything about the CMHC being backed up by the taxpayers. I only have control over my own decisions, and I gladly accept all consequences for them, as any responsible adult would.

Yes. Touching dog share. I learned a great deal from having dogs from puppydom to old age. One of the biggest things I learned from having dogs, and there were many, is, if I am not as happy as a well treated dog, I am doing something wrong. Ones perspective has a great deal to do with everything. I am happy and grateful every day. I’ve been blessed.

#44 Nagraj on 11.05.15 at 7:46 pm

You can now get sympathy cards for the death of a pet.

It’s now more widely recognized that the loss of a beloved pet can be as devastating as the loss of a human loved one.

The distinction between human and animal is of course subjective. I, who have connections, can tell you with absolute certainty that all animals go straight to heaven when they die, whereas almost all humans go straight to hell where they most certainly belong.

[Lotsa old geezer Cons voluntarily go straight to hell, because it bills itself as a gender-insensitive (as vs gender-sensitive) paradise.]

Our “Twitter-PM”, JT&Co, will, I submit, not be blamed for the Canadian economy’s inevitable infernal descent – because he and hisn is us, see?
Evil big business AND HARPER will get the blame. Not to mention the real estate crooks.
I figger JT is fireside chat material (a la FDR).
JT haters are in for a world of pain.
[By the way, what politician IN HIS RIGHT MIND, and looking for votes in a democracy, is gonna agree with Poloz that the people are dumb?]

“Abandon all hope ye who enter here.” Cue evil laughter.

[I hear Mrs. Pross: “There has been a great noise, and I feel that I shall spend the rest of my life in silence.”]

#45 prairie person on 11.05.15 at 7:46 pm

Euphoria! The 995,000 house at the end of the street has a sold sign on it. I will be most interested to see who paid over a million dollars when you incorporate the expense of buying. This is a nice middle class neighbourhood but this price seems out of the normal price band. It’s a nicely redone heritage home but…someone has a lot of cash or a big mortgage Never did see an open house sign. If I had, I’d have been nosy enough to take a look. I read all the posts by the person who writes about Victoria house prices but everywhere I go there are new condos that sell out just about right away, new houses that don’t stay on the market long. Are these buyers Eastern Canadians who would have bought in the US but because of the low Canadian dollar are buying in Victoria? Are they American buyers buying because housing is cheap in US dollars? Are they the feared buyers from China? Are they aliens from a distant planet?

#46 Brian Ripley on 11.05.15 at 7:49 pm

re: “Only 28% of all listings active in the GTA during October sold.” Ross Kay

Hmmmm, Well I just updated and published my GTA chart and I get a different picture:

http://www.chpc.biz/toronto-housing.html

I get (from the TREB) for the GTA:
Total Res Sales = 8804
Total Res Listings = 16,180
Thus an Absorption Rate of 54%

If Ross Kay gets an absorption rate of only 28% then he must have total listings at almost twice what the TREB is reporting.

Is Ross Kay’s calculation data source different than the TREB? (My contact is on my site)

#47 I Stand Corrected on 11.05.15 at 7:52 pm

We sold our house in Calgary in February 2014. A couple of months ago my old neighbour messaged me that the neighbour on the other side listed their house. Curious to see what they were asking, as we had almost the exact same house, I was shocked to see them trying to get $10K more than our initial asking price. We listed on a Thursday and accepted an offer on Saturday for $5K under asking which was $15K over what I would have accepted anyways. Their house sat on the market for two months and on Sunday the house was off mls, but back up today for $10K less or our original asking price. A 2.5% drop, the watch continues!

#48 Smoking Man on 11.05.15 at 7:54 pm

Sorry about the dog.

But, But…

TPP leaked today out of New Zealand..

Its a game changer… Canada is fkd.

#49 Mark on 11.05.15 at 8:00 pm

I guess the question right now is how quickly will the curtains finally fall on the last vestages of the delusion that house prices are increasing. The RE boards have managed, on account of a very significantly changed sales mix, to somewhat mask declines over the past 2 years or so. But now it is pretty undeniable, with market transactions occurring at 60% off in Calgary.

Will Justin and his new Finance Minister lackey give the flush to the housing sector rapidly, so Canada can move on with the next phase of growth? Or will they continue the catastrophic folly of the United States and try and prop the housing market up to the destruction of the Canadian dollar and Canada’s finances?

If they play things right, things could be a very vibrant next few years, with the cost of capital lowered significantly to productive business. If they don’t play things right, well, the bond market probably will puke. Somewhat like it did when his father was in office.

#50 Reasonfirst on 11.05.15 at 8:04 pm

I am a little weirded out by the timing of this post. My 16+ year old lab has been on a slow decline for about a year and just yesterday evening my wife and I decided that she had had enough – trouble standing and lost appetite. We called the vet today and set an appointment for tomorrow.

Hopefully tomorrow afternoon my backpack will be full of the happy memories she brought us and we can recall the great adventures she did with us.

#51 Basil Fawlty on 11.05.15 at 8:16 pm

“Out of context, therefore meaningless. She did not say negative rates are on the ‘on the table’. They are not. —- Garth

Okay, just what did she mean when she said ” would be on the table”?

The context was a hypothetical question of what the Fed might consider in the event of an economic disaster. Meaningless. Move on. — Garth

#52 amazon girl on 11.05.15 at 8:24 pm

Amazon girl to Smoking Man

Missing you Smoking Man !
your thoughts on the last Russia plane,that went down

back from a trip from Barcelona…
fan#51

#53 Henry Simpson on 11.05.15 at 8:27 pm

It looks like 2016 will be a interest charging bonds not interest earning bonds on the shorter end for now and $18,000 less in TFSA’s for our family of 4 adults.

Just the fact that anyone would mention in the U.S. Federal Reserve or not that interest rates can go below zero is an indication of how thieves are not done stealing. This is the same people telling us that deflation is a real threat when we all know everything will and does cots more from taxes to food prices to gasoline to hydro rates etc. etc.

Look up the definition of interest rates, a percentage paid on the principal amount not the borrower getting paid interest to use the money.

They have to call it something else. Call it a interest charging bond for instance.

#54 BC Guy on 11.05.15 at 8:30 pm

Thanks for sharing Sheryl’s story.

Pets are like children. We love and adore them and we are inconsolable when we lose them.

#55 SWL1976 on 11.05.15 at 8:34 pm

#42 Basil Fawlty – Sounds to me like there is more than just negative rates on the table.

I’m surprised at how many still have faith and trust in the United States government and the Federal Reserve.

America is no longer the beacon of hope it once was. If shooting up a for charity, doctors without borders hospital with a war plane is not a whole new low… I don’t know what is, or what will be.

The war on terror is a complete fraud folks!!!

War is terror – Think about it

Anyways, I have been called a doomer more times then I can count and quite often I am the barer of bad news. However, just because I can see, and choose to research the corruption and deception in this world doesn’t mean I carry that shit around with me.

Life’s too short for that

There is a better way folks, but first we must acknowledge the root cause of the problem before the problem can be resolved

It starts and ends with money from nothing

#56 bigtowne on 11.05.15 at 8:34 pm

Vanguard of the index funds for low fees manager Bogle sees returns of 4% over the next ten years for equities…if that is the case kind of makes you wonder where the Canadian dollar will find a floor.

#57 For those about to flop... on 11.05.15 at 8:39 pm

In these trying and uncertain times I find myself asking the same key question each night.
What is Sherry Danson eating for dinner tonight ?

#58 Snowboid on 11.05.15 at 8:39 pm

#40 Marky on 11.05.15 at 7:27 pm…

We keep an eye on RE in Victoria, as we saw the peak in 2010. This is confirmed as we see properties near the inner harbour where we used to live selling in the last year for 10-15% less than the peak values. It’s also confirmed by the VIREB stats.

If you don’t agree or like the VREU information you are either misguided or an agent (or both).

Either way, since Calgary is hooped it makes sense to provide the analysis of what’s up.

I say bravo, Victoria Real Estate Update.

#59 conan on 11.05.15 at 8:40 pm

Sheryl’s Sasha tale bought back the same feelings of profound loss that I felt after I lost my pet to illness.

15 years of amazing companionship.

It is not til they are gone that you realize how hard they work to make you happy and balanced. Sniff.

Amazing read. Thank you.

#60 BC Guy on 11.05.15 at 8:41 pm

I just want to emphasize Garth’s best advice: don’t buy individual stocks – they are too risky.

Look at former darling stocks like Valeant and Volkswagon. Even Magna crashed 10% today. WTF?

If you buy an individual stock and it goes up, you think you’re a genius. But who could have predicted the meltdown in Valeant and Volkswagon? Nobody.

Never buy individual stocks. Only ETFs from now on. Lesson learned.

#61 BG on 11.05.15 at 8:42 pm

Don’t feel bad for not waiting longer Sheryl.

I know by experience that if you tried to hard, they suffer for nothing.

#62 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.05.15 at 8:42 pm

@#51 Sibal Waftly

Apparently you seem to interpret “hypothetical” situations much the same way as “Penniless Richard” aka Broke Dick.
It was a “what if” question posed by the interviewer that she answered.
Not a policy that she will be implementing.
Now go beat Manuel
Not

#63 Big English on 11.05.15 at 8:43 pm

Thanks for sharing the note from Sheryl.

Put a lot of things into perspective.

#64 Bby604 on 11.05.15 at 8:45 pm

Funny how we talk about compassion empathy and caring when regarding our beloved pets down But then can’t translate the same ideas to a person wishing to choose when they go. Think about it.

#65 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.05.15 at 8:49 pm

@#55 SWL1976
“I have been called a doomer more times then I can count and quite often I am the barer of bad news….”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

I have a friend like you.
We dont talk much any more. Too depressing listening to his conspiracy theories, doom and gloom scenarios gleaned from the internet……..hmmmmm……
Steve? Is that YOU?

#66 Snowboid on 11.05.15 at 8:50 pm

#45 prairie person on 11.05.15 at 7:46 pm…

“…Are they American buyers buying because housing is cheap in US dollars…”

Do you realize that the $ 760K USD to buy that home in Victoria would buy an absolutely spectacular mansion in most US cities?

As I said before, the peak in Victoria was 2010 – prices have a ways to catch up to those prices.

The mini-Mcmansion we sold in early 2011 fetched a bit less than the assessed value. It’s currently assessed at 12% less, even with the hike this year!

So while the heritage home you mention sold for $ 995,000 (how do you know that?) the areas we follow and our former neighbours that sold tell a story quite different.

#67 Smoking Man on 11.05.15 at 8:52 pm

What I love about this pathetic blog.

Dominated by dog people.

Makes my wonder where the feline hang out.

#68 RayofLight on 11.05.15 at 8:55 pm

#60 BC Guy on 11.05.15 at 8:41 pm
I just want to emphasize Garth’s best advice: don’t buy individual stocks – they are too risky.

Look at former darling stocks like Valeant and Volkswagon. Even Magna crashed 10% today. WTF?

If you buy an individual stock and it goes up, you think you’re a genius. But who could have predicted the meltdown in Valeant and Volkswagon? Nobody.

Never buy individual stocks. Only ETFs from now on. Lesson learned.
————————————————————
It depends on how you define risk. Volatility is not the risk.

#69 Big Dipper on 11.05.15 at 8:56 pm

“the boss at the Bank of Canada found it necessary to hit the speaking tour with a single overriding message: we’re not responsible for people’s bad choices.”

What BS. Of course he is! If you give away free beer people will drink in excess. Believing that giving away free money would not lead to excess borrowing and spending shows complete ignorance of human nature.
Nothing to do with people’s bad choices – everything to do with creating an environment which stimulates “bad” choices and next complaining about that very consequence.

DID I JUST KILL MY DOG?!

No lady, someone else killed the dog for you. This was very much the right thing to do as the dog was obviously suffering, and had no hope of recovery. I’ve been there, and so have many others.

But the obvious religious component of this lady’s mourning process made me reflect on the very fortunate situation we now have in a Canada – having been cleansed of the miserable ideology of the Harperites. The liberals are committed to “dying with dignity” – and not just for dogs.

#70 Smoking Man on 11.05.15 at 8:57 pm

#52 amazon girl on 11.05.15 at 8:24 pm
Amazon girl to Smoking Man

Missing you Smoking Man !
your thoughts on the last Russia plane,that went down

back from a trip from Barcelona…
fan#51
….

I’ll be back more in a while, I’m kind of back in school. My head hurts..New gig is a mind fk.

I’m use to being the go to dude. Its not natural for me to be the grasshopper.

I have to be the best, it’s how I’m wired..so lots of studying, experimenting. Im just to tired at end of the day to contribute anything worth while.

#71 8102 on 11.05.15 at 9:06 pm

Let’s not forget it was the previous government that is responsible for the mess we are in right now with low interest rates and the debt orgy that is now going on.

As soon as “F” was out of the picture the train came off the rails.

The new government inherited this mess, they did not create it.

Reminds me of the mess Obama inherited from Bush.

#72 spaceman on 11.05.15 at 9:08 pm

This just in, mortgage rates in Canada go up tommorrow, a little bird told me… how much? I dunno, but watch the panic as people lock in…

#73 Daisy Mae on 11.05.15 at 9:16 pm

#11: “In the same conversation we talked about a former coworker who had to come out of retirement to pay for a rather large assessment on his condo, this after paying a rather large assessment a month before retirement…..”

******************

Gated communities don’t have this problem. We’re responsible for the condition of just our home — townhouses — however, were governed under the condo act. Condo living is scary….

#74 Daisy Mae on 11.05.15 at 9:29 pm

#22: “I dread the day when I have to put my dog down.”

****************

It happens to all pet owners. It’s tough. It’s sad. It’s life.

#75 lala on 11.05.15 at 9:31 pm

Well done sire Turner, well done. That’s why I keep coming back, you bring light to peoples life, you feed us with inspiration. This country is constipated, went to far and is no way back. Well… What is bad for some people is good for some, you know lala is making more money in bad times, business is bumming so you know what is going on. I’m a cat person but tonite I’ll during to Sasha, hope my liver it will allow me.

#76 Terry on 11.05.15 at 9:33 pm

Priceless Sheryl……….God speed to Sasha and God bless you in your Faith.

Yours in Christ,

Terry

#77 TJ on 11.05.15 at 9:40 pm

There are vets that make house calls. Is there some reason people putting their pets down don’t have it done in their home, where their pet is most comfortable? Why drag the ailing critter in to the vets office? Surely the few extra dollars for a house call is worth it in such a case.

I assume it’s because they haven’t thought of it. The vets themselves should probably suggest it, as it is what is best for the pet…

#78 nonplused on 11.05.15 at 9:41 pm

Sheryl,

The tough decisions have to be made eventually. Stop beating yourself up and know you did the right thing. I am sure that Sasha appreciated the love and great life you gave her and I don’t know if dogs know they must one day meet the maker, but we all do.

#79 rainclouds on 11.05.15 at 9:49 pm

#71 8102
Reminds me of the mess Obama inherited from Bush.

Yea, Bush Sr. probably wont go hunting with “both barrels” Cheney ……….

Sheryl, The ultimate act of kindness…never easy.

On a lighter note:
Check out what the VPD is doing with their dogs

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/11/04/repelling-vancouver-police-dog_n_8474598.html

#80 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 11.05.15 at 9:52 pm

Yellin is the forth FED official to float the idea of NIRP.
Nevertheless monetary policy is a joke determined with the same thoughtfulness as a coin toss.

She did not float it. She was asked a what-if-the-economy-tanks question. You guys are unreal. — Garth

#81 Lea on 11.05.15 at 9:54 pm

#66 Snowboid

Exactly! As an American living in Canada I suffer from sticker shock every time I see what real estate costs here. Even after the C$ slide, it seems very, very expensive.

On the other hand, I think the condos near my house in L.A. are getting a little frothy. The prices, however, are still $100,000 LESS than they were in 2008 so a recovery takes a long time.

#82 Victor V on 11.05.15 at 9:56 pm

http://business.financialpost.com/news/fp-street/home-capital-group-incs-probe-into-alleged-fraud-by-mortgage-brokers-widens

TORONTO — Home Capital Group Inc. says mortgage brokers who were suspended for allegedly falsifying income information generated nearly twice as much in mortgages as the company originally reported.

The mortgage lender said in July that the 45 brokers that it cut ties with generated $960.4 million of loans in 2014 — or 5.3 per cent of the outstanding loans on its balance sheet.

In its third-quarter earnings report, issued after markets closed on Wednesday, Home Capital said the total value of outstanding loans generated by the suspended brokers — which extends beyond those loans initiated in 2014 — was $1.72 billion as of Sept. 30.

#83 Victor V on 11.05.15 at 9:57 pm

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/bell-media-to-cut-jobs-in-toronto-montreal/article27130545/

Ongoing cost-cutting at Bell Media will see the company slash about 270 jobs in Toronto and 110 more in Montreal by the end of November.

The 380 proposed cuts are outlined by Bell Media’s vice-president of human resources, Anne McNamara, in a pair of letters to the new Minister of Employment, Workforce Development and Labour, MaryAnn Mihychuck. The letters are dated Nov. 5, and The Globe and Mail obtained copies.

In Toronto, the cuts will eliminate about 220 positions from the production, editorial and operations functions of Bell Media, a division of BCE Inc., 45 jobs from sales and marketing, and five administrative or clerical roles. In Montreal, the breakdown for the same categories will be 70, 35 and five.

A Bell Media spokesperson confirmed that the letters were posted inside Bell’s Toronto and Montreal offices on Thursday.

#84 Washed Up Lawyer on 11.05.15 at 9:58 pm

It is not only the legitimacy of real estate board data that matters. Timeliness should count as well. You would think that averaging the price of 40 house sales in Fort McMurray would not take 2 weeks to calculate. Still no October data.

I guess that no news is good news. I will watch for it.

The data will probably pale in comparison to the looks of Rona Ambrose.

#85 AfterTheHouseSold on 11.05.15 at 10:02 pm

Kraft Heinz to close plant in St Marys, Ontario. 200 jobs gone.

#86 Bill Gable on 11.05.15 at 10:14 pm

Thank you for sharing Sheryl’s words. I was very moved by her sensitivity. As animal lovers, we get so much from our animal friends, it is hard to put into words.
You allowed Sheryl to do it, with grace and charm.
Sasha, was a beauty.
Thanks, for sharing this, Mr. Turner.

#87 april on 11.05.15 at 10:18 pm

#73 – Are you sure. I have a relative who had to pay $10.000 towards a new roof on her townhouse of 13 yrs in Walnut Grove langley BC – not a condo as no one above or below and her own entrance.

#88 Balmuto on 11.05.15 at 10:21 pm

The wife of a friend of mine works in mortgage origination at one of the large banks in Toronto. She says business was booming earlier in the year but in the latter half of the year it’s been dead.

Another anecdote about the banks – a friend of mine just got hired at one of the large banks in T.O. in the “wholesale” credit group, which basically means commercial lending, specifically to assess credit risk on the oil and gas companies. Apparently the banks are starting to really worry now as they are now seeing the oil companies drawing on their lines of credit in a big way. Which is increasing their exposure to the sector at the worst time.

Does seem like there is trouble brewing.

#89 SWL1976 on 11.05.15 at 10:49 pm

#65 crowdedelevatorfartz

@#55 SWL1976

I have a friend like you.
We dont talk much any more. Too depressing listening to his conspiracy theories, doom and gloom scenarios gleaned from the internet……..hmmmmm……
Steve? Is that YOU?

————–

I’m surprised you have a friend

No this is not Steve, but I understand why the two of you no longer speak much

Without first understanding the problem there is no hope in solving it

Cheers!

#90 Snowboid on 11.05.15 at 10:50 pm

#73 Daisy Mae on 11.05.15 at 9:16 pm…

Beg to differ, my late parents were in a gated community in south Kelowna, and were hit with a hefty special assessment to fix a major problem with the common ‘waterways’

It was totally unexpected as my folks thought they were only responsible for maintaining their home.

#91 Kreditanstalt on 11.05.15 at 10:51 pm

In the coming deflationary depression a lot of things will look out of line.

I have a neighbor who started to offer his very ordinary bungalow here on V.I. for $324,000 – over a year ago. Since then he’s gone through three agents and has only come down to $285,000.

Point is, sellers are greedy, sticky and far behind the times. If it were ever possible for interest rates to rise, a lot of stuck pigs would be hollering and homes would be flying back onto the market at much more reasonable prices…but that’s not going to happen.

There’s a good case too for government-imposed “minimum wages” to be reduced in a time of deflation…when teachers’ salaries/pensions/benefits/perks become so expensive that school boards choose to close schools and cut programs instead of attacking those salaries, you know something is out of line with reality…

Do YOU know anyone you could productively hire at $10.50/hour + benefits these days?

I don’t…and a WHOLE LOT of wages, costs, benefits, programs and house prices are going to have to adjust to the new deflationary reality.

#92 tundra pete on 11.05.15 at 10:57 pm

Just to relay our experience.

My buddy, wire hair fox terrier , wells, had to be put down when he was 14. He was such a character. Our lives are diferent now because of him. In a great way.

The squirrel population in our hood suffered because of Wells and his instinct. Many a squirrel tail was layed out at the back door for our trophy collection. I got him extra marro bones and rawhides as I thought I could convince him otherwise but the squirrel mortality rate in our hood remained high.

When the day finally came I thought I could convince my wife otherwise. But I couldnt. After he was peacefully euthanised, it came to me that he was in a better place and perhaps we may have let him suffer for a month more than he should have. So I found great warmth in knowing I helped my buddy.

I still laugh when I think about his last trip in that office. In his usual way he skulked about, he looked at the receptionist and when he realized she lacked any redeeming qualities he cranked his leg one last time on her desk and let her have it!

#93 canadian on 11.05.15 at 11:05 pm

#77 TJ on 11.05.15 at 9:40 pm

Agreed. The comfort factor is so important I have no explanation for why someone who “loves” their pet would deny them the comfort of departing their existence in familiar, calm, surroundings.

No amount of money is worth that.

#94 Observer on 11.05.15 at 11:18 pm

U.S. Jobs report in A.M.
Bellwether.

#95 Ontario's Left Coast on 11.05.15 at 11:26 pm

#57 For those about to flop – Sherry Danson

Bahaaahaa, good one! It’s a great question… After the rough ride Garth gave her, there’s no guarantee she’s on solid foods yet! I’m thinking dollar store tapioca pudding.

#96 Roasted Albertan Nutz on 11.05.15 at 11:30 pm

Kiss Alberta bye-bye. Minister of Climate Change!

http://i.cbc.ca/1.3305173.1446728803!/fileImage/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/original_620/canada-politics.jpg

#97 Fuzzy Camel on 11.05.15 at 11:32 pm

The sheer volume of layoffs should concern anyone.

Either the economy stinks right now, or they forecast it will stink shortly. Either way the big corps are positioning for hard times, banks seldom layoff.

BoC already said an economic slowdown coupled with record consumer debt is problematic.

#98 Nora Lenderby on 11.05.15 at 11:34 pm

Sad to hear about the dog, Sheryl. You did the right thing.

So did you, Mr. T. Thanks.

#99 Nora Lenderby on 11.05.15 at 11:41 pm

#64 Bby604 on 11.05.15 at 8:45 pm
Funny how we talk about compassion empathy and caring when regarding our beloved pets down But then can’t translate the same ideas to a person wishing to choose when they go. Think about it.

Well said, Mr. B.

I knew it! Beneath that crusty old b*gger exterior of yours beats a heart of gold (or at least precious metal futures :-)

#100 kommykim on 11.05.15 at 11:43 pm

RE:

She did not float it. She was asked a what-if-the-economy-tanks question. You guys are unreal. — Garth

Reminds me of John Cougar Mellencamp’s “Walk Tall” lyric:

People believe what they want to believe
When it makes no sense at all……

#101 Nora Lenderby on 11.05.15 at 11:47 pm

#84 Washed Up Lawyer on 11.05.15 at 9:58 pm
The data will probably pale in comparison to the looks of Rona Ambrose.

Poor woman. What are they thinking?

#102 Awwwwction on 11.05.15 at 11:48 pm

Garth

Great discovery on the auction action in Alberta….do you or any fellow blog dogs know of where to find out when auctions will be taking place. Specifically looking for information on Vancouver Island auctions, Oceanside area with valuations of 30 cents on the $.

#103 OXI in GREECE !! on 11.05.15 at 11:55 pm

“My sister and I have an ongoing joke about our “backpack of life” and how we have a tendency to fill it with heavy rocks and stones of regret, loss and sadness which weigh us down and keep us from being happy. Sasha just showed me what should be in my backpack. Love and joy don’t weigh a thing.

What’s in your backpack?”

That just made my families day…..

#104 Nora Lenderby on 11.05.15 at 11:57 pm

#200 MF on 11.05.15 at 5:35 pm
#188 Roial1 on 11.05.15 at 4:40 pm
Congrats on your wife though (serious). Hard to find a good one for many guys, especially those in your age bracket.

Not hard at all. Good women are all over the place, especially in an older demographic. You just might have to be more interesting and fun to be with.

And less picky, considering that very few of you have the racy good looks, the breeding, the athletic form and the flowing locks of the lovely Mr. Trudeau (who currently has to have women dispersed with tear gas).

I told you he was a babe magnet.

#105 kommykim on 11.06.15 at 12:00 am

RE:

#91 Kreditanstalt on 11.05.15 at 10:51 pm
Do YOU know anyone you could productively hire at $10.50/hour + benefits these days?

You sound like you are worth about $2 an hour.

#106 Lillooet,BC on 11.06.15 at 12:03 am

#60 BC Guy on 11.05.15 at 8:41 pm
I just want to emphasize Garth’s best advice: don’t buy individual stocks – they are too risky.

Look at former darling stocks like Valeant and Volkswagon. Even Magna crashed 10% today. WTF?

If you buy an individual stock and it goes up, you think you’re a genius. But who could have predicted the meltdown in Valeant and Volkswagon? Nobody.

Never buy individual stocks. Only ETFs from now on. Lesson learned.

***********************

If you want to beat the market, buying ETFs won’t work.

Shawn can attest this theory

#107 For those about to flop... on 11.06.15 at 12:09 am

Hey OLC,glad you liked it .I just slipped that one in to see who was paying attention and you are tonight’s winner.
I don’t know what she ate for dinner but I sure know she got the rough end of the pineapple!

#108 not 1st on 11.06.15 at 12:09 am

#94 Observer on 11.05.15 at 11:18 pm

U.S. Jobs report in A.M.
Bellwether.
—-

nah, just a bunch of uber drivers and fast food cooks being hired. 20 years ago the market would have ignored low skilled hiring like this. Where are the manufacturing and high tech jobs and engineers at.

#109 Ken R on 11.06.15 at 12:09 am

Had to put down our dog this past August on our 30th wedding anniversary. Very tough day; she was a terrific family dog. I took her in for a chap who was down on his luck and he never came back to get her. We enjoyed her company for 8 years.

#110 Lillooet,BC on 11.06.15 at 12:10 am

#68 RayofLight on 11.05.15 at 8:55 pm
#60 BC Guy on 11.05.15 at 8:41 pm
I just want to emphasize Garth’s best advice: don’t buy individual stocks – they are too risky.

Look at former darling stocks like Valeant and Volkswagon. Even Magna crashed 10% today. WTF?

If you buy an individual stock and it goes up, you think you’re a genius. But who could have predicted the meltdown in Valeant and Volkswagon? Nobody.

Never buy individual stocks. Only ETFs from now on. Lesson learned.
————————————————————
It depends on how you define risk. Volatility is not the risk.

*******************

Mr Buffett explained volatility and risk in one of his annual letters.

#111 Bby604 on 11.06.15 at 12:18 am

#99 Nora Lenderby on 11.05.15 at 11:41 pm

I knew it! Beneath that crusty old b*gger exterior of yours beats a heart of gold (or at least precious metal futures :-)
————
U don’t know the half of it, most of my posts don’t make it on here … Garth is sensitive ya know ?!

#112 Victoria Real Estate Update on 11.06.15 at 12:51 am

# 45 prairie person

The fact of the matter is that sales of SFHs in Victoria have been below Victoria’s long term average so far in 2015.

You sound like a realtor or perhaps you are just an average Victorian who has chosen to believe the hype of the local real estate board.

It’s hilarious that you seem to think that Victoria compares to warm American cities in terms of a vacation home destination. Americans are not buying real estate in Victoria as you suggest.

There are many US cities that have warm weather ALL YEAR, unlike in Victoria where it’s rainy and cold for six months of the year.

Surely you couldn’t have missed all of the examples of houses in warm US cities that I’ve posted links to over the past year or two.

Prices in those desirable, warm US cities can be bought for one quarter or one fifth of the cost of a similar house in Victoria. Even with the stronger American dollar those American homes are still only a fraction of the cost of a similar Victoria home. Again, why would Americans buy in a small, cold and rainy Canadian city when they have what they have in their own country?

You sound quite delusional about what’s happening with Victiria’s housing market and the way that people from the US and eastern Canada view Victoria in general.

I know many people from Victoria who leave here each year to live in warm US cities for six months of the year. The reason: to get away from Victoria’s cold and rainy winter weather.

What makes things worse for the performance of Victoria’s housing market is that sales of SFHs are below Victoria’s long term average while interest rates are at historically low levels.

The last average year for Victoria in terms of SFH sales was in 2007. That year mortgage rates were at near normal levels. Sales in 2015 should be much higher than in 2007, but they are lower. You probably didn’t read that information in the local board’s latest public release.

#113 MF on 11.06.15 at 12:52 am

#104 Nora Lenderby on 11.05.15 at 11:57 pm

“Not hard at all. Good women are all over the place, especially in an older demographic. You just might have to be more interesting and fun to be with.

And less picky, considering that very few of you have the racy good looks, the breeding, the athletic form and the flowing locks of the lovely Mr. Trudeau (who currently has to have women dispersed with tear gas).

I told you he was a babe magnet.”

Lol I’m in my early 30’s. Get told I look early 20’s all the time.

I assure you the athletic and breeding ability are well intact. Locks to boot still too.

Also could care less about older women (most of the time) and Trudeau’s looks LOL looks like a kid to me. One of my hockey pals.

Run the country though? Nah.

MF

#114 great on 11.06.15 at 12:52 am

Friend of mine working at Ausenco engineering in Vancouver just got the pink slip, his department went from 100 people in 2014 to 2!!! Well paid jobs for yvr in the 60.000+ range. Telus is firing mostly here too, and when you think the Telus garden building is bought 80% by employee…
The only good news today was the long form census which will soon shed a light on the real demographics and economy of this country.
Still a lot of cool aid here on the west coast, but the port of Vancouver traffic is down 5% from last year.
Home Capital Group will collapse soon enough give it 3-6 months, then the party is becoming real.

#115 MF on 11.06.15 at 1:05 am

#8 Broke Dick on 11.05.15 at 6:17 pm

“MF that is very naive of you.
Rents like house prices are based on supply and demand.
If it was based solely on what people could afford how in the world can you explain SFH prices in Van??”

I think you are partially correct. But you can’t put a value on the flexibility afforded by renting.

Supply and demand are only part of the equation. Price the rent too high for the market and no one will rent the place because they will look for something more competitive.

Too high means in comparison to average rentals in the area as well as income (and supply and demand).

I look at myself. If my landlord came to me and said he would raise the rent of my Tdot condo next month I’d look elsewhere instantly. Billions of these suites being built all bought by amateurs -sorry- investors looking to rent out. No reason to pay too much.

Also, the lack of maintenance to pay for makes renting cheaper.

As for GVR..No idea man. Never been there and from what I read on here that place detached from reality a decade ago and is floating off into outer space with no oxygen or food on board.

MF

#116 MF on 11.06.15 at 1:10 am

#104 Nora Lenderby on 11.05.15 at 11:57 pm

Also, got a bone to pick with this idea that women voted for Trudeau based on how he looks.

Not from what I heard from the majority of females in my life (demographic 20’s-mid 40’s).

Most can’t stand him to be honest. Flaunting around the fact he is young. He is like the cute waitress at the bar who is smiling at you and is so “nice”.

The females I know examined his policies and ignored the facade.

But hey we have exactly 48.999% females in the cabinet to keep people like you placated.

MF

#117 OXI in GREECE !! on 11.06.15 at 1:50 am

#14 Kender on 11.05.15 at 6:24 pm
Telus laying off 1500 people.

Likely many have mortgages, and probably not small mortgages considering Telus pays good salaries.

Severance will end in 2 weeks to 4 months. After that, a few weeks of panic and some houses will go on the market.

1- Energy patch layoffs
2- National Bank layoffs
3- Bank of Nova Scotia layoffs
4- Telus layoffs
5- Next?

Other companies will do layoffs, because they can now point to those blue chips layoffs.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

govt is always hiring. They are so smart they think there is an endless supply of money to fund them…..even from laid off people….

BYE BYE CANADA…..

#118 Tony on 11.06.15 at 1:50 am

Re: #2 DJ on 11.05.15 at 6:01 pm

Yes my first postiness!

#119 Washed Up Lawyer on 11.06.15 at 2:27 am

So, the TPP agreement is 6000 pages long. Could someone else parse it???

Mark?

#120 DON on 11.06.15 at 3:07 am

#89 SWL1976 on 11.05.15 at 10:49 pm
#65 crowdedelevatorfartz

@#55 SWL1976

I have a friend like you.
We dont talk much any more. Too depressing listening to his conspiracy theories, doom and gloom scenarios gleaned from the internet……..hmmmmm……
Steve? Is that YOU?

————–

I’m surprised you have a friend

No this is not Steve, but I understand why the two of you no longer speak much

Without first understanding the problem there is no hope in solving it

Cheers!
********************
Easier for him to make fun of others and stick his head in the ground. School yard tactics.

#121 DON on 11.06.15 at 3:11 am

#114 great on 11.06.15 at 12:52 am
Friend of mine working at Ausenco engineering in Vancouver just got the pink slip, his department went from 100 people in 2014 to 2!!! Well paid jobs for yvr in the 60.000+ range. Telus is firing mostly here too, and when you think the Telus garden building is bought 80% by employee…
The only good news today was the long form census which will soon shed a light on the real demographics and economy of this country.
Still a lot of cool aid here on the west coast, but the port of Vancouver traffic is down 5% from last year.
Home Capital Group will collapse soon enough give it 3-6 months, then the party is becoming real.
******************

Friend of mine who works for a mining company stated that “worry is in the air, the rides about to get wild”. He’s working on an exit plan.

#122 DON on 11.06.15 at 3:28 am

#58 Snowboid on 11.05.15 at 8:39 pm
#40 Marky on 11.05.15 at 7:27 pm…

We keep an eye on RE in Victoria, as we saw the peak in 2010. This is confirmed as we see properties near the inner harbour where we used to live selling in the last year for 10-15% less than the peak values. It’s also confirmed by the VIREB stats.

If you don’t agree or like the VREU information you are either misguided or an agent (or both).

Either way, since Calgary is hooped it makes sense to provide the analysis of what’s up.

I say bravo, Victoria Real Estate Update.
**************************************
Victoria Real Estate Update can read between the lines…real estate no longer a central topic. No longer new builds on every street. Slowing down like the 80’s. Prices still sticky in certain areas and rents are slowly coming down but still out of touch for the incomes in the areas. Many people I know own two properties or and a vacation one up island. My brother and friend both picked up foreclosures in the last year. Below market prices but still pricey for the areas.

Government’s property transfer tax revenue stream – not looking good. Most likely why the gov won’t get involved as they stand to loose. Gotta balance that budget at all costs. Welcome to BC, the lawless west

#123 fake buyers on 11.06.15 at 3:29 am

Here in Vancouver realtors are getting crafty as the supposed hot market is on fire…..one agent who sells e side house’s has started running 1 hour open houses as fewer buyers are lurking. ..less and less bids so they are having cohorts put in phoney bids with subject’s in hopes the 1 or 2 actual buyers compete and overpay. Agent’s also bring in fake buyers at private showings to create sense of urgency to make o buyer bid

#124 Fred johnson on 11.06.15 at 5:05 am

Ottawa board warns about looking at one month average price number as condo’s drop 13% year over year from $290 to $251 thousand, saying we should look at the year to date average of $258

Yet in rankng the number of sales by price without giving actual sales numbers they say “there were also a good number of sales in the $500 to $700 thousand dollar range”.

“good number of sales” ??

#125 Fred johnson on 11.06.15 at 5:06 am

http://www1.ottawarealestate.org/home/NewsInformation/LatestNewsRelease.aspx

#126 Fred johnson on 11.06.15 at 5:06 am

forgot link

http://www1.ottawarealestate.org/home/NewsInformation/LatestNewsRelease.aspx

#127 Love my Kia on 11.06.15 at 5:54 am

First time this blog made me cry. God bless both Sasha and Sheryl.

I think its time for a discussion about what we carry in our backpacks. It may persuade those seduced by housing to consider what really matters beside keeping up with the Jones.

#128 Londoner on 11.06.15 at 6:03 am

“No wonder the boss at the Bank of Canada found it necessary to hit the speaking tour with a single overriding message: we’re not responsible for people’s bad choices.”

It’s not just the BoC, the BoE is at it as well:

“Raising interest rates to deal with housing market problems would hit the rest of the economy too hard, Bank of England deputy governor Dame Nemat (Minouche) Shafik has told the BBC.”

and also, just to add a bit of fuel to the fire ;) …

“Just last month, we looked at this again and we said that actually we do have room to lower interest rates if we had to and we could do more quantitative easing if we had to and in fact the governor’s letter to the chancellor this month explains precisely that”

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34741331

#129 Saul Goodmann on 11.06.15 at 6:09 am

It’s all good man…..

Garth

Has anyone ever told you that you bear striking resemblance to Brian Cranston from Breaking Bad…..

#130 Vangrrl on 11.06.15 at 6:33 am

#22 JG: Just make sure you have someone with you that day- I had a rock star of a friend and she helped me make it a beautiful day, with a visit to the beach first where my dog lay in the sand with the sun on his face.
He left this world lying on my lap eating liver treats (I had an amazing vet too).
#50 Reasonfirst: Much strength to you in the days ahead.

#131 cropgrower on 11.06.15 at 7:51 am

the first time I heard someone say they were their dog’s mommy or daddy, I laughed out loud. Now, I hear this quite often, and just feel sad.

#132 Victor V on 11.06.15 at 8:24 am

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/canadas-new-finance-minister-urged-to-cool-down-housing-market/article27140929

“What is not clear is what the Liberal government will do regarding housing,” Mr. Watt said this week in a report on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s new cabinet.

“In our view, there is a strong case for further macro-prudential measures to manage potential risks to economic growth and financial stability from the housing sector,” he added.

“We await Mr. Morneau’s comments on this issue.”

#133 Tony on 11.06.15 at 8:25 am

Taking a shot at the U.S. jobs report and looking for a huge rally in silver and to a lesser extent gold. The print should come in at exactly 167,000 jobs.

#134 IHCTD9 on 11.06.15 at 8:32 am

#198 Spellcheckcantsaveyou on 11.05.15 at 5:35 pm
#168
“Unfortunately, some of my longstanding morals may be cast aside depending on what this new crew decides to do. If the plan is to pound us all into an even deeper hole for some environmental of social justice concerns – than I can not be held accountable…”

Then, not than.

Also, are you threatening violence upon the government? You may be in violation recent terrorism laws. Really.

Another uneducated internet tough-guy that’s, presumably, right-wing. What a shock on Garth’s comment section.
____________________________________________

Hey guy, check the spelling on this:

You are a complete Moron.

The morals I made reference to, are those that have thus prevented me from doing what SO MANY out my way are now doing: working and “contracting” for work under the table.

Another left wing internet douchebag who has a crystal ball and can read minds.

#135 Grantmi on 11.06.15 at 9:32 am

here comes the RATE HIKE!!!!!

270,000 new YOBS in the USA

#136 AB Boxster on 11.06.15 at 9:36 am

But if none of that concerns you – nor our slagging economy, falling dollar, deficit spending, cheap oil, roll-back of savings, job losses, higher taxes or our Twitter PM – dig in. If you crave debt, this is your country. What could possibly go wrong? – Garth

———————————————
None of this should concern us Garth….

It’s 2015!

Kumbaya.

#137 crowdedelevatorfartz on 11.06.15 at 9:41 am

@#89 SWL1976
“Without first understanding the problem there is no hope in solving it….”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Treatment for Paranioa requires psychiatrists and meds.
Neither of which I currently have access to. ( Much to Don’s dismay).
But according to our resident Doctor.
Smoking Man sez…..alcohol does help
So Cheers back to you.

#138 Tony on 11.06.15 at 9:43 am

Got the jobs print wrong but old Nvidia saved me today making new high after new high and cracked the 30 dollar U.S. area in premarket trading. This is the only U.S. stock I’m long. 4K tv’s and monitors greatly increase the need for new video cards.

Wrong? That’s an understatement. — Garth

#139 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.06.15 at 9:44 am

Sheryl’s story reminds me of the time I had to put my human down. She had a terminal case of House Lust.

I couldn’t bear to watch the pain and suffering…

#140 jess on 11.06.15 at 9:56 am

“trigger” happy blind rats that can’t tell a F from an A

e.g. Pinstripe I CDO Ltd.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ah839IWTLP9s

wiki:
Credit rating agencies (CRAs) — firms which rate debt instruments/securities according to the debtor’s ability to pay lenders back — played a significant role at various stages in the American subprime mortgage crisis of 2007-2008 that led to the Great Recession of 2008-2009. The new, complex securities of “structured finance” used to finance subprime mortgages could not have been sold without ratings by the “Big Three” rating agencies — Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s, and Fitch Ratings. A large section of the debt securities market — many money markets and pension funds — were restricted in their bylaws to holding only the safest securities — i.e securities the rating agencies designated “triple-A”.[1] The pools of debt the agencies gave their highest ratings to [2] included over three trillion dollars of loans to homebuyers with bad credit and undocumented incomes through 2007.[3] Hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of these triple-A securities were downgraded to “junk” status by 2010,[1][4][5] and the writedowns and losses came to over half a trillion dollars.[6][7] This led “to the collapse or disappearance” in 2008-9 of three major investment banks (Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and Merrill Lynch), and the federal governments buying of $700 billion of bad debt from distressed financial institutions.[7]
https://m.moodys.com/mt/www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-11-tranches-from-3-RMBS-resecuritization-deals–PR_182302

#141 Ole Doberman on 11.06.15 at 9:57 am

Garth was right all along – the US is in recovery.

He was right about QE coming to an end, and now will be right about interest rates.

Only thing he’s been wrong on is real estate in last 8 years!

Not in the 75% of the nation’s markets now stagnant or in decline. — Garth

#142 IHCTD9 on 11.06.15 at 9:57 am

#69 Big Dipper on 11.05.15 at 8:56 pm

What BS. Of course he is! If you give away free beer people will drink in excess. Believing that giving away free money would not lead to excess borrowing and spending shows complete ignorance of human nature.
Nothing to do with people’s bad choices – everything to do with creating an environment which stimulates “bad” choices and next complaining about that very consequence.
____________________________________________

If you gave me free beer, I would not drink in excess, nor would most folks I know.

The BOC moves on the behalf of the economy. That made borrowing cheaper. I did not run out and buy the biggest house I could afford, nor did anyone I know.

If you throw a French fry out on the highway in front of a speeding bus, every seagull in the parking lot will go for it, completely ignorant the bus that would crush them. Humans have a frontal lobe, we can reason, and learn – these are hallmarks of humanity. If anyone is ignorant about human nature, you are.

Sure bad choices were made, and are being made – put the blame where it belongs: on the house horny buyers.

You will eventually find out that the vast majority of home owners in Canada DID NOT sell their souls to the mortgage brokers, no matter what carrots were dangled.

#143 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.06.15 at 10:00 am

@Washed Up Lawyer

Please, no. Mark’s “parsed” explanation of the TPP would be 12,000 pages.

#144 Bottoms_Up on 11.06.15 at 10:01 am

Exxon mobil mentions they knew global warming was real in the 1970s.

Exxon Mobil subject of probe regarding climate change research
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/ny-ag-exxon-peabody-climate-change-1.3307005
Shared via the CBC News Android App

#145 Andre the Giant on 11.06.15 at 10:03 am

But Garth won’t rising rates crash the markets, I think the DOW is going down today.

Fed can’t have this cause pension funds need the equity returns.

Unlikely. Everybody knows higher rates are coming. The market will express some disappointment then advance. Higher rates means a strong economy. — Garth

#146 james on 11.06.15 at 10:07 am

So Canada actually created jobs in the latest report.

But it appears many of them were actually just short term election jobs.

So……..if Justin can simply call an election every couple of months, we should be able to ride out any storms, no problem.

And we can all get back to installing more kitchen granite and flipping our income properties.

Sunny ways!

#147 Andre the Giant on 11.06.15 at 10:09 am

Unlikely. Everybody knows higher rates are coming. The market will express some disappointment then advance. Higher rates means a strong economy. — Garth
————————————————————-
Do you see those companies with no debt doing better than those with debt in a rising interest environment?

#148 Trojan House on 11.06.15 at 10:09 am

“US adds 271,000 jobs, making Feb hike done deal”

Except that the real numbers show that the total overall unemployment in the US is at least 12% and some would argue, closer to 23%.

More people quit looking for a job than actually were hired. It’s all smoke and mirrors. In today’s global economy, rate hikes are never a done deal.

Give it up. — Garth

#149 The American on 11.06.15 at 10:13 am

At #133: Tony, wrong again. You’re VERY good at being wrong every time. Congratulations…again! Canada… the cold apartment above the party.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/06/us-usa-economy-idUSKCN0SV0HQ20151106

#150 Daisy Mae on 11.06.15 at 10:26 am

#36: “But, have you seen the cost of caring for pets in Canada lately. Raw organic food, grooming, day care, boarding and most importantly.

The way the economy is going We won’t be able to afford pets.”

*****************

And…to add insult to injury, $400 minimum to buy a rescue dog.

#151 Nora Lenderby on 11.06.15 at 10:27 am

#116 MF on 11.06.15 at 1:10 am
#104 Nora Lenderby on 11.05.15 at 11:57 pm
Also, got a bone to pick with this idea that women voted for Trudeau based on how he looks. …But hey we have exactly 48.999% females in the cabinet to keep people like you placated.

Irony is obviously lost on a man of steel :-)

My point was the media hype around the Second Coming, and the grumpiness that the lovely Mr. Trudeau has provoked from certain people (…you know who you are :-)

At this stage, I’d settle for an attempt at competent administration from anyone, no matter their gender, race, age or, indeed, species.

I’d prefer smart to stupid. Hard work over poll-watching. As, I know, would any sentient being here.

#152 Nora Lenderby on 11.06.15 at 10:31 am

#124 Fred johnson on 11.06.15 at 5:05 am
Ottawa board warns about looking at one month average price number as condo’s drop 13% …Yet… they say “there were also a good number of sales in the $500 to $700 thousand dollar range”.

“good number of sales” ??

Haha…more than none?

#153 Broke Dick on 11.06.15 at 10:40 am

She did not float it. She was asked a what-if-the-economy-tanks question. You guys are unreal. — Garth
===================================
So, what if the economy does tank?
I’m not implying that it is, but what if it did in the not too distant future? Then what?
Nothing to lose sleep over, simply a discussion point.

Like an asteroid attack. Or President Trump. — Garth

#154 Bby604 on 11.06.15 at 10:55 am

Doesn’t this sound like July August? C’mon November will be a miss then they will wring their hands , I’m enjoying the show though.

#155 saskatoon on 11.06.15 at 10:55 am

“done deal”?

where is this said?

link?

#156 JM on 11.06.15 at 10:56 am

Oh, right, this time rates will go up. Of course, on the 4th try this year they’ll finally pull the trigger.
The economy has changed so much in the last week.
Just over a week ago Yellen was dovish but now based on one very fabricated jobs report, rates will go up, kill US exports and sink stock markets, which will in turn have a very nasty domino effect.
Let’s see them pull the trigger.
I’d wager that there is no chance in hell rates move in December.

#157 Roasted Nutz on 11.06.15 at 10:56 am

#153 Broke Dick on 11.06.15 at 10:40 am

She did not float it. She was asked a what-if-the-economy-tanks question. You guys are unreal. — Garth
===================================
So, what if the economy does tank?
I’m not implying that it is, but what if it did in the not too distant future? Then what?
Nothing to lose sleep over, simply a discussion point.

Like an asteroid attack. Or President Trump. — Garth
———————————–
Asteroids are not sentient, and therefore can’t ‘attack’. Just massive pinball physics.

Trump on the other hand appears to be sentient, though not far above pond scum. Still a triumphant Trump would most certainly be an attack on the sanity of world and require negative interest rates.

#158 Broke Dick on 11.06.15 at 11:00 am

#115 MF on 11.06.15 at 1:05 am
#8 Broke Dick on 11.05.15 at 6:17 pm

“MF that is very naive of you.
Rents like house prices are based on supply and demand.
If it was based solely on what people could afford how in the world can you explain SFH prices in Van??”

I think you are partially correct. But you can’t put a value on the flexibility afforded by renting.

Supply and demand are only part of the equation. Price the rent too high for the market and no one will rent the place because they will look for something more competitive.
=================================

True enough. But what if vacancy rates were close to zero. You would then have to find a less suitable place (basement) or take in a roomy.
Landlords in general don’t care what you can pay, more so what they can get. Same as someone selling a home.

#159 Retired WI Boomer on 11.06.15 at 11:00 am

272,00 is the Jobs Frankenumber for Oct.

Will that translate into a FED rate hike in December? Stay tuned, and get your secret decoder ring clues after this message from our sponsor…..

Yes, the wait and see -extend and pretend- is now in it’s (what inning, I’ve lost count)….

Is this heaven?…No, this is Iowa… field of Dreamers…

Meanwhile, Oscar Mayer is closing its 100 year old facility in Madison eliminating 1,000 jobs. Anybody could see this one coming a decade ago.. why is it BIG NEWS ??

#160 Broke Dick on 11.06.15 at 11:02 am

#153 Broke Dick on 11.06.15 at 10:40 am
She did not float it. She was asked a what-if-the-economy-tanks question. You guys are unreal. — Garth
===================================
So, what if the economy does tank?
I’m not implying that it is, but what if it did in the not too distant future? Then what?
Nothing to lose sleep over, simply a discussion point.

Like an asteroid attack. Or President Trump. — Garth

===============================
Garth would you go out on a limb then and state that the chance of the economy tanking in the next three years is less than 5%? Less than 10%?

#161 Daisy Mae on 11.06.15 at 11:11 am

#87: “Are you sure. I have a relative who had to pay $10.000 towards a new roof on her townhouse of 13 yrs in Walnut Grove langley BC – not a condo as no one above or below and her own entrance.”

*************

Of course, there are costs involved with home-ownership. We homeowners agreed years ago, in order to keep strata fees low, to foot the cost of our individual roofs when the time comes. We’re independent of each other.

#162 Tony on 11.06.15 at 11:14 am

Re: #149 The American on 11.06.15 at 10:13 am

Somebody deleted my reply.

Get used to it. You add nothing here. — Garth

#163 Daisy Mae on 11.06.15 at 11:19 am

#90: “Beg to differ, my late parents were in a gated community in south Kelowna, and were hit with a hefty special assessment…”

******************

I guess that’s why we have a substantial contingency fund….

#164 The American on 11.06.15 at 11:22 am

Fed hike guaranteed, bitches :-) YAY!

#165 The Other Chris on 11.06.15 at 11:25 am

If you look at the intraday chart for the Canadian dollar, right at the moment the US jobs report came out, the Canadian dollar spiked hugely downwards. It’s down more than 1% right now.

I think all the smart money is now betting on a US rate hike. Garth is right.

#166 Dee on 11.06.15 at 11:30 am

“US adds 271,000 jobs, making Feb hike done deal.”

Wait, I thought we were still expecting December? I mean, I agree it’s very definitely coming, but I’m curious why expectations got pushed back again…

“Fed”, not “Feb.” — Garth

#167 Mike in Edm on 11.06.15 at 11:33 am

On Wed, I heard on the radio on my drive home from work the dj’s talking about the 2 mansions down in Priddis that sold for a 50% discount. Never heard that kind of discussion before on the radio.

It’s also the general consensus around Leduc/Nisku (heart of the O&G) that oil will be at around $45/bbl for at least another year, maybe 2, 3 or longer. Crazy how things can change in a year. This time last year i’d guess that 90% of the ppl I talked to said oil would be back up to at least $70 by Summer of 2015.

Send them here. We’ll scare the crap out of ’em. — Garth

#168 conan on 11.06.15 at 11:36 am

I will be surprised if there is a rate hike even though the numbers came in above 200k.
The non participation number is ridiculous, 94.5 million yikes!

#169 Pete on 11.06.15 at 11:37 am

Are you sure that dog with the sweet smile is disabled? I thought maybe the harness was for somebody who wanted to take the dog with them over rough terrain or mountains.

I saw Golden recently that had lost a front leg (cancer) and it was doing really well, quite mobile and happy as a lark.

#170 BlackDog on 11.06.15 at 11:43 am

As a life long cat person, recently turned dog person in love with a dog for the very first time (does this make me bi-animal?), I don’t want to think about saying good-bye.

#171 When will they raise rates? on 11.06.15 at 11:43 am

OK, I’m skeptical that the FED will pull the trigger because I’ve seen this carrot before, but screw it, I’ll bite.

So, what will Trudeau do to help Canadians when rising rates FINALLY prick this bubble?

Many Canadians will be underwater, trapped in a negative equity position if we get a steep correction, right Garth?

I know you said it won’t be a “crash”, but I’m thinking if rates do normalize over the next few years, it may be even worse, more like a bloodbath when fixed 5-years start renewing at higher rates; Didn’t you say that almost half of Canadians can’t afford to miss even one paycheque? What happens to these people when their mortgage payments start spiking up, and they can’t sell because they’re underwater?

Maybe today’s blog post can touch on this, Garth?

Oh, and here’s to 2016 being the year of “Garth was right!”. Fingers crossed!

(I know that sounds bad, but I’ve been waiting on the sidelines for a LONG time waiting for a crash, and I have very little sympathy for people who bought at these crazy levels)

#172 old gringo on 11.06.15 at 11:49 am

Would be my guess that many seniors will “celebrate” the coming rate hikes. Most have been living on super low returns on their savings.
The herds have borrowed insanely with these rates so low, but perhaps the ill wind turns.
There is always a silver lining for some while others feel the pain for a change.

#173 Obvious Eye on 11.06.15 at 11:50 am

DELETED (anti-Chinese)

#174 Tony on 11.06.15 at 11:50 am

Re: #156 JM on 11.06.15 at 10:56 am

In the past higher rates had about a 6 to 8 months lag into the real economy. So the American economy would fall apart in the summer next year if they pick December this year. It could be an election ploy because if they raise rates later than December the lag period would be too close to the November election. If they raise in December they can ease rates coming into the election next year.

#175 BlackDog on 11.06.15 at 11:52 am

@DaisyMae #150 re: “And…to add insult to injury, $400 minimum to buy a rescue dog. ”

I paid $650 for my dog which I got from a no-kill shelter in Quebec. When you figure the animals are already fixed and vaccinated, and that the shelter needs to feed and house other homeless dogs and cats, the fee is more than reasonable. I was happy to pay it. I’d rather that, than purchase a pet from someone trying to make money selling animals. Stay away from pet shops. They are the worst!

#176 S.Bby on 11.06.15 at 11:54 am

Mortgage mess:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/td-bank-reviews-foreclosure-after-cbc-makes-inquiries-1.3307092

#177 Arse on 11.06.15 at 12:00 pm

Rate hike by the FED is much more likely now

#178 Jaymo on 11.06.15 at 12:02 pm

“I think all the smart money is now betting on a US rate hike. Garth is right.”

We’ve done this song and dance a few times this year… March, June, September. Garth along with the other ‘smart money’ was in each of those camps. Yes, the fed would love to raise rates, but they are treading lightly for very good reasons. A rate hike is far from a done deal. Saying so is as ridiculous as every other time it’s been said.

I wonder if Madame Lagarde will be out poo poo’ing the idea this time around.

#179 Tony on 11.06.15 at 12:11 pm

Re: Get used to it. You add nothing here. — Garth

Believe it or not I would like nothing better than to see higher interest rates, much higher interest rates. For me each one quarter increase in rates means one more trip to Downtown Fine Cars.

#180 IHCTD9 on 11.06.15 at 12:14 pm

I get the feeling that competition in the finance of homebuyers as a whole is nasty cut-throat like never before.

If rates go up in the US, and eventually here – how hard are the banks going to scramble trying to get some margin on Mortgages if a little momentum develops?

If buyers dry up with interest rate increases, I can see some pretty tough times for them unless they can all put the rates up substantially and simultaneously.

#181 pbrasseur on 11.06.15 at 12:20 pm

So, what will Trudeau do to help Canadians when rising rates FINALLY prick this bubble? #171 When will they raise rates?

If history is any guide there’s absolutely nothing he can do to stop an exploding bubble besides throwing borrowed money around to alleviate a tiny bit of the pain.

And believe it or not it’s a good thing because if he could to something to reflate the bubble it would only makes things worse further down the road, not that he might not try mind you…

Canada in an overrated, overextended, overleveraged nation. Problems run deep and are structural. The ONLY thing that can fix that is a long and painful correction, only a matter of time IMHO.

#182 Leo Trollstoy on 11.06.15 at 12:20 pm

Wow the U.S. jobs report just crushed it. Perhaps will even be revised higher in the future.

I had thought that the CAD was likely done its fall but I seem to be wrong.

Smoking Man you win again!

#183 Retired WI Boomer on 11.06.15 at 12:30 pm

#171 When Will They Raise Rates?

Curious question you ask. “What will Trudeau do to help Canadians when rising rates FINALLY prick this bubble?”

What would make you thin he should DO a darn thing?
He signed his own mortgage, from what I’ve seen here several times I do believe. He will have his own issues, why should he care about other dumb Canadians?

If your mortgage goes up, that’s the price of admission isn’t it? What if your car is on an adjustable term as well?
How about the HELOC?

I see a time of stir-fried indebted wonders should the “rate game” move decidedly. THAT will bring prices down as there would be fewer buyers, and even less demand.

No, seen this circus before, and it is not pretty, but many clowns in there. The ‘good news’ is bankruptcy is not forever. It merely feels like that.

#184 Market Man on 11.06.15 at 12:31 pm

They will raise rates a quarter point
Then they will sit on it

How much do you really think the 5 year
Mortgage rate will go up maybe back to
3%
A year ago the 5 year bond rate was about
1.5% today it’s under 1

You need a SPIKE in either interest rates
Or unemployment

#185 omg we are almost there on 11.06.15 at 12:32 pm

Garth, we are almost there! Rate hikes incoming.

Is CPD going to dip here? what’s a good portfolio for someone starting out with 20K in cash to invest???

I have e-series set up and a TD brokerage. what to do? someone must have some good ideas :)

#186 Bill on 11.06.15 at 12:37 pm

Telus is chopping jobs because they dont want employees.
I was an employee and now a contractor.
I made 4 times an employee but bust my ass. And theres neverending paperwork to track business and the gov. Corp tax, GST PST WCB Remuneration ect.
The days of employees and pensions is over. The working middle class jobs that paid well are over.

#187 AfterTheHouseSold on 11.06.15 at 12:40 pm

#159 Retired WI Boomer
“Meanwhile, Oscar Mayer is closing its 100 year old facility in Madison eliminating 1,000 jobs. Anybody could see this one coming a decade ago…”

I’ve added Quaker Oats in Peterborough Ontario to my won’t-be-surprised-to-see-close list. Although there have been no rumblings of such, it’s also housed in a 100+ facility and given the trend to repatriate…”

#188 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.06.15 at 12:47 pm

Sorry for sounding insensitive, but I can see coffins,eulogies, wakes, funerals and headstones coming.
Buy shares of those businesses.

#189 Kenchie on 11.06.15 at 12:49 pm

Death to Boomers!! (Joking)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2015/11/05/baby-boomers-are-whats-wrong-with-americas-economy/

#190 Infrared on 11.06.15 at 12:51 pm

oh boy, how can you combine in one post real estate and such a lyric story?!

#191 ALBERTA IS FINISHED on 11.06.15 at 12:51 pm

Houses for sale at deep deep discount in what used to be known as Oilberta!

Energy east, northern gateway, morgan kinder are all dead too….. rolling train bombs to continue, but but….

The new minister of climate change will sign a massive carbon tax by year end to ensure us western knuckle draggers are finished off.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/obama-to-reject-transcanadas-keystone-xl-pipeline-source-says/article27144973/

#192 omg the original on 11.06.15 at 12:53 pm

US adds 270,000 jobs
————————-

So somehow the world muddles through and recovers.

And again the US is the leader.

For all its faults, weaknesses and excesses the US is the world innovator.

I’ve said it before, as have many other rational, long-term thinkers on this blog……

“Bet against the US at your own risk”

#193 Kender on 11.06.15 at 12:56 pm

Garth might finally be 6 weeks away from the first rate hike. Even if this will have a negative impact for indebted canadians, I feel happyness for this blog, after so many years of no movement in rates, waiting and waiting.

The best Christmas gift Garth could get.

#194 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.06.15 at 12:56 pm

Ha Keystone dead. Obama and Kerry bent over and took it up the keester for the tree hugging commie pinko climate assholes. Wait until the climate gate assholes cant get to their tree hugging ceremonies cause there aint no gas. Better try walking losers.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/06/politics/keystone-xl-pipeline-decision-rejection-kerry/index.html?sr=twCNN110615keystone-xl-pipeline-decision-rejection-kerry0409PMVODtopLink&linkId=18557123

#195 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.06.15 at 1:00 pm

#164 The American on 11.06.15 at 11:22 am

Fed hike guaranteed, bitches :-) YAY!
____________________________________________
It was just a matter of time………………
Bring it on baby.
BTW 86 degrees and partly cloudy, I might drown my sorrows today in a Yellow Bird or two. Looking at a used boat today, guy from FL selling and moving back to mainland.

#196 OXI in GREECE !! on 11.06.15 at 1:05 pm

Canada in an overrated, overextended, overleveraged nation. Problems run deep and are structural. The ONLY thing that can fix that is a long and painful correction, only a matter of time IMHO.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

A problem that will never be solved as long as the provincial and federal govts continue to allow foreign money laundering in kanukustan……

Having 120% MORE govt workers than Germany that depend on tax dollars for funding does not help either…..

#197 Pete on 11.06.15 at 1:11 pm

#179
So, what will Trudeau do to help Canadians when rising rates FINALLY prick this bubble? #171 When will they raise rates?

If history is any guide there’s absolutely nothing he can do to stop an exploding bubble besides throwing borrowed money around to alleviate a tiny bit of the pain.
————–
Why the hell SHOULD they do anything? The role of government is not to bail out stupid, self indulgent people – oh, wait, maybe that is exactly what a Liberal government has been elected for!

#198 Broke Dick on 11.06.15 at 1:16 pm

Hello Nagraj.
I am sitting here waiting for your unique interpretation of today’s photo. “Safe Removals”.
You know, some people refer to condos as safes ;)

#199 ALBERTASTROPHE on 11.06.15 at 1:29 pm

KEYSTONE DEAD!!!!!!!!

This is it, Alberta. The moment of reckoning is upon us, and the Paris summit just a few weeks away will seal the deal.

If you are dumb enough to be hanging on to your real estate “equity”, you are now officially doomed.

The tone of Obama’s announcement should send a shudder down the spine of every Albertan. This is just the beginning.

Expect to see a decline in Alberta real estate values of about 75%.

The only question is “when”?

2018? 2017?

Maybe 2016?

SELL NOW WHILE YOU CAN – find a greater fool, be reasonable, and GET OUT of Alberta home ownership.

(Or be prepared to hang on til about 2050, when you might “break even” – not including opportunity costs, maintenance, taxes etc…)

#200 OXI in GREECE !! on 11.06.15 at 1:30 pm

Phoney US Jobs Report…..

Uh huh….as usual……read the fine print losers……MOSTLY McJobs and Starbucks jobs……but go ahead and jump up and down…..

“Employment gains in October were broad-based, though manufacturing added no jobs and mining shed 4,000 positions.

Manufacturing has been hurt by a strong dollar, efforts by businesses to reduce bloated inventory and spending cuts by energy companies cutting back on well drilling and exploration in response to lower oil prices.

The mining sector has shed 109,000 jobs since peaking in December 2014. Oilfield services provider Schlumberger (SLB.N) last month announced further layoffs in addition to the 20,000 jobs it has already eliminated.

Construction payrolls, however, increased 31,000 last month, the biggest gain since February.

The services sector added 241,000 jobs in October, with large gains in retail, health and leisure. Professional and business services added 78,000 jobs, the largest gain since last November. Government payrolls increased 3,000 last month.”

#201 fancy_pants on 11.06.15 at 1:32 pm

I take any Fed hike done deal advice with a grain of salt. My ears have become numb. I still cling to a sliver of hope that this time will be different but excuse me for being apathetic and not standing up in anticipation.

I prefer to play the odds differently. All my umbrellas are inverted should they start dropping money from the sky.

#202 omg we are almost there on 11.06.15 at 1:33 pm

So how does one play this?

Say you are getting 20K and want to invest it?

Wait until rates go up to plunk it into diversified e-series?

there is lots of smart people on here. how are people going to play the rate hike?

Smart people invest, instead of trying to time the market with $20K. — Garth

#203 SWL1976 on 11.06.15 at 1:36 pm

#192 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol

Ha Keystone dead. Obama and Kerry bent over and took it up the keester for the tree hugging commie pinko climate assholes. Wait until the climate gate assholes cant get to their tree hugging ceremonies cause there aint no gas. Better try walking losers.

You’re directing your anger at the wrong crowd there Tylenol

There is no shame in wanting to improve our environment, our home and perhaps leave this world better than we found it. Something that many people living off the land for thousands of years clearly understood, but something few people, dare I say from the boomer generation understand today

Now if you really want to understand the true agenda behind the green movement, I suggest you pay close attention to TurnerNations notes refering to Agenda 21

For the new green movement has nothing to do with grassroots individuals wanting a better environment for themselves and their children. On the contrary, it has everything to do with this corporatocracy we live in having utter control over our daily lives

#204 bdy sktrn on 11.06.15 at 1:39 pm

#158 Broke Dick on 11.06.15 at 11:00 am
#115 MF on 11.06.15 at 1:05 am
#8 Broke Dick on 11.05.15 at 6:17 pm

“MF that is very naive of you.
Rents like house prices are based on supply and demand.

True enough. But what if vacancy rates were close to zero. You would then have to find a less suitable place (basement) or take in a roomy.
Landlords in general don’t care what you can pay, more so what they can get. Same as someone selling a home.

————————–
you can watch this in action in core604 daily. near 0 vac rates, rents pushing up substantially.
wages may be flat on average but there are more people of all payscales , including the well paid and
fewer houses to rent (for anti condo types)

#205 MF on 11.06.15 at 1:40 pm

#151 Nora Lenderby on 11.06.15 at 10:27 am

“Irony is obviously lost on a man of steel :-)”

haha agreed.

“At this stage, I’d settle for an attempt at competent administration from anyone, no matter their gender, race, age or, indeed, species.”

Double agreed.

#158 Broke Dick on 11.06.15 at 11:00 am

“True enough. But what if vacancy rates were close to zero. You would then have to find a less suitable place (basement) or take in a roomy.
Landlords in general don’t care what you can pay, more so what they can get. Same as someone selling a home.”

Are you calling me a musty basement dweller? How dare you lol.

Valid point but it is my opinion that there is always a constant supply of rentals on the market because most people’s idea of investing consists of 1 condos and 2 houses… and it ends there.

I’m not one of these guys that discounts all statistics, but I am skeptical. There are a million condos coming up here in Toronto. So many you can actually see the supply side overtaking the demand side with your own eyes. I think the vacancy rate is higher than is reported. It also is not hard to see more condos coming on the market since they take no time to build. Houses are a little different but still the same principle holds.

As a renter you just have to be armed with knowledge of going rental rates for your area, dwelling size etc.

You can also use math like price:rent ratios (I think that is what it is called) to see if you are over paying.

MF

#206 pbrasseur on 11.06.15 at 1:44 pm

There you go Canada…

http://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/canada-5-year-bond-yield

#207 When will they raise rates? on 11.06.15 at 1:52 pm

@ pbrasseur on 11.06.15 at 12:20 pm and Retired WI Boomer on 11.06.15 at 12:30 pm

Oh don’t get me wrong, I don’t think Trudeau should do a damn thing to help either reflate the bubble, or bail out those who over-leveraged themselves into oblivion. That’s their problem, and the rest of us should not shoulder the burden to bail their asses out when this thing pops. Why should I be on the hook when I didn’t participate in the bubble? Why should my taxes go up to subsidize those who are going to lose everything, when all these years I’ve rented, stayed out of debt, saved like a financially responsible Canadian and DELAYED buying my first home, while all of my friends and everyone around me partied it up, gorging on cheap debt buying overpriced homes, taking out HELOCS and living way beyond their means? I say let them reap what they have sown, and they can keep their grubby hands out of my pocket when it blows up in their face!

What I’m afraid of, is that when this thing pops, this government will do what governments do best $$$. And it will be done in the name of “Helping Canadians”.

I’m afraid that they are going to ask that we ALL “pay our fair share”.

Hence why I asked, what will Trudeau do? I have my ideas… And none of them are good.

#208 MF on 11.06.15 at 1:52 pm

#203 bdy sktrn on 11.06.15 at 1:39 pm

I see. I really can’t explain Vancouver.

Again, I’ve never been there, but from what I hear I can’t understand why someone would want to live there. To work as a RE agent maybe?

Vancouver sounds like the posterchild city for the destructive implications of ZIRP. A city that offers nothing except selling houses to one another like some kind of economic masturbation.

Vacation sure. But live and work? Can’t see it.

MF

#209 Cici on 11.06.15 at 1:58 pm

Today all of the doomers who constantly argue with, interrogate and harass Garth must bow down and offer their mea culpas:

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/odds-of-fed-hike-in-december-just-jumped-to-72-after-massive-u-s-jobs-report

#210 pbrasseur on 11.06.15 at 2:02 pm

When a single job report in the US can send the Canadian 5 year bond yield up by almost 8% you know the RE market in Canada is running on fumes… And so goes the economy that depends on it.

Hoping CBC/Radio-Canada really enjoy their new flavour of the month PM, something tells me that party will end abruptly four years from now!

#211 omg we are almost there on 11.06.15 at 2:06 pm

Smart people invest, instead of trying to time the market with $20K. — Garth

Thanks! But…..if rates are going to start hiking, aren’t we going to see a protracted downturn?

aren’t we going to see a lot of downward pressure over the next few weeks as the markets price in the rate hikes? better to hold off?

im not trying to be facetious, it would just be extraordinary annoying to make a lump sum investment at a market top

Why would US markets drop when the US economy is growing? This is no surprise. — Garth

#212 Shame on Us on 11.06.15 at 2:20 pm

Obama just pantsed Trudy Turdeau . He did to Trudy what he never dared do to Stephen Harper. Obama is a coward who couldn’t face any one who stood up for themselves…..Trudy Turdeau just bent over to a cowards whim. So much for Canadian sovereignty.

#213 Leo Trollstoy on 11.06.15 at 2:28 pm

As we have seen for the last few years, U.S. tech employees saw largest wage growth of +13.9% while healthcare and government salaries decline.

http://www.stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2015/11/06/careerbuilder-and-emsi-release-list-of-industries-with-the-greatest-pay

#214 pbrasseur on 11.06.15 at 2:30 pm

«What I’m afraid of, is that when this thing pops, this government will do what governments do best $$$. And it will be done in the name of “Helping Canadians”.» #207 When will they raise rates?

Even if Justin does nothing he’ll be deep in deficits because income will be less than expected, possibly much less and durably so. If he merely tries to keep his stupid promises the deficit will grow larger, even bigger yet if he attempts to provide extra «stimulus». Plus of course there will be bailouts, possibly (god forbid) CMHC.

Bottom line is we live beyond our means in this country, we are about to realize it, suffer from it and yet very likely to make things worse on the way there…

#215 Broke Dick on 11.06.15 at 2:32 pm

#205 MF on 11.06.15 at 1:40 pm
It also is not hard to see more condos coming on the market since they take no time to build. Houses are a little different but still the same principle holds.

As a renter you just have to be armed with knowledge of going rental rates for your area, dwelling size etc.

You can also use math like price:rent ratios (I think that is what it is called) to see if you are over paying.

MF
==================================
No doubt many more condos are coming into the market. Houses however, nope. Basically zero, except for few infills.
I will concede your others points but supply and demand still dictates rents and home prices. This is why SFH in 416 are going hockey stick mode. You want one you pay. No new ones coming to market, only condos.

#216 Nagraj on 11.06.15 at 2:34 pm

#198 BROKE DICK, “Hello Nagraj.”

Hello Broke Dick, how are you?

Because this is a family values blogsite I cannot properly respond to your question.

#217 Blacksheep on 11.06.15 at 2:34 pm

Rate, rates, rates…always with the rates.

This ones for the rate obsessed, whom actually believe rates are going to move more than a token amount, (to save face) regardless of job #’s . It should also give the global warming weenie’s a warm and fuzzy knowing 60% less fuel is being burnt in the good ole US of A.

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=A103600001&f=M

Everyone’s riding bicycles? Amazonian drone delivery?

I don’t think so.

Yes, the Cattle are back to buying cars, (can’t afford houses so a shinny new, makes em feel better) but they aren’t driving and goods just aren’t moving like in the past. The GFC came at the worst possible time, in regards to demographics. The Boomers spending has long peaked, many are in damage control mode and just trying to make it to the bell.

https://confoundedinterest.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/m1mfedfundeff.png

https://confoundedinterest.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/m2vfedfunds.png

Remember, the US needs 150K jobs a month, just to avoid going backwards.

No the world hasn’t ended, so rates will move, but with out some serious growth (5%+), anything more than small moves, might choke the nearly flat lining economy.

#218 young & foolish on 11.06.15 at 2:35 pm

Housing will never be cheap … you will either pay big mortgages or high rents … in areas where jobs are concentrated (like large urban centers). Get over it already.
Sure, there will be ups and downs, but such is the case with every market (commodities anyone? preferreds?).

#219 AfterTheHouseSold on 11.06.15 at 2:36 pm

It’s payback time!

Brad Duguid, the Economic Development Minister of the Ontario Liberal Party has come-a-calling. He is looking for a “transition adjustment program” to support the Ontario auto sector re the TPP.

Not to be outdone, the Quebec Economy Minister office is looking for a cool billion to help Bombardier with its C-series jet, “just like the help Ontario’s auto sector received.”

In the meantime back at the Federal Liberal Party, Scott Brison has taken to musing that the fiscal situation “not as rosy” as Conservatives said.

Let the games begin!

#220 salonist on 11.06.15 at 2:36 pm

195 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol

stick around for junkanoo if you dare
ps, the local jail is just around the corner.

http://www.google.ca/imgres?imgurl=http://www.my-bahamas-travel.com/image-files/junkanoo2.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.my-bahamas-travel.com/bahamasjunkanoo.html&h=640&w=853&tbnid=y3yffK8cJEzeUM:&tbnh=150&tbnw=200&usg=__kunjRRjRNGkg-CaRci-JDBlHLno=&docid=RDHMmzKpkzUoNM&itg=1

#221 Ronh on 11.06.15 at 2:38 pm

The FED will raise the rate and there will be a reaction.
As the rates goes up and up, there will be a point where
the mal-investments will start to pop. Then we will get a
reaction. It will be ugly.

Equity markets long ago priced in a Fed hike. — Garth

#222 Shame on Us on 11.06.15 at 2:39 pm

How is this anti-Chinese?

http://business.financialpost.com/investing/global-investor/canadian-banks-help-chinese-flout-their-laws-to-get-piece-of-smurfing-billions

It was the hateful words I refuse to publish. — Garth

#223 Broke Dick on 11.06.15 at 2:39 pm

#208 MF on 11.06.15 at 1:52 pm
#203 bdy sktrn on 11.06.15 at 1:39 pm

I see. I really can’t explain Vancouver.

Again, I’ve never been there, but from what I hear I can’t understand why someone would want to live there. To work as a RE agent maybe?

Vancouver sounds like the posterchild city for the destructive implications of ZIRP. A city that offers nothing except selling houses to one another like some kind of economic masturbation.

Vacation sure. But live and work? Can’t see it.

MF

———————————————————
Not the place for me either but you have to take those blinders off.
Beautiful scenery.
Temperate climate.
Safe.
Perfect for outdoorsy types.

All you need is cash.
And work. Ha, that’s for poor types like you and me ;)

Careful though. Lots of bad drivers there.

#224 young & foolish on 11.06.15 at 2:43 pm

“Point is, sellers are greedy, sticky and far behind the times.”

Nortel … Bombardier … RIM?

#225 Nick on 11.06.15 at 2:46 pm

DELETED (anti-Chinese)

#226 Nemesis on 11.06.15 at 2:50 pm

#FantasyIsland,Or… #It’sBetterInBC… #No,Really…

“Overall employment on Vancouver Island peaked around 2008 and has been declining since. Only the Kootenay comes close to Vancouver Island’s disengagement with working life, at 55 per cent.”

[TimesColonist] – Almost half of Islanders aren’t working

http://www.timescolonist.com/opinion/columnists/les-leyne-almost-half-of-islanders-aren-t-working-1.2104206

#BonusBC,Or… #LeadingByExample?…

[G&M] – B.C. legislature sits 36 of 579 days. Is this responsible government?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/bc-legislature-sits-36-of-579-days-is-this-responsible-government/article14245947/

#227 omg we are almost there on 11.06.15 at 2:54 pm

Why would US markets drop when the US economy is growing? This is no surprise. — Garth

arent the US markets at least partially propped up by stock buybacks and other borrowing leveraging low rates?

as a millienial, i realize investing isn’t a choice. its a requirement….but still, it seems like now, more than ever, things are duct taped together, and that all choices are fraught with heavy risk

#228 Daisy Mae on 11.06.15 at 2:58 pm

“…Or President Trump. — Garth

********************

Bite yer tongue! ;-)

#229 Roial1 on 11.06.15 at 3:00 pm

#37 Exurban on 11.05.15 at 7:15 pm
Our media’s torrid love affair with Justin does not bode well.
———————————————————–
I quite disagree with your assessment.

The real reason for the press,s like for Justin is that they may not be muzzled by such a paranoid as our past PM and thus have some real political news to report.

I am sure that it is hell in a news room when they can not fill a news cast and the editor is screaming for some filler for the 6 o’clock deadline.

#230 defying odds? on 11.06.15 at 3:02 pm

Is Vancouver different? Too many rich investors?
one bedroom starting at only $379K

http://www.kensingtongardens.ca/

#231 Bob on 11.06.15 at 3:11 pm

“Smart people invest, instead of trying to time the market with $20K.” — Garth

What do you suggest for someone who just sold a business and needs to deploy $2.2M?

Just drop it in and hope for the best from a diversified portfolio?

Depends if you’re investing for the next 60 days or the rest of your life. Amateurs trying to time a market almost always lose. — Garth

#232 The Great Canadian Bubble Co. on 11.06.15 at 3:12 pm

The US innovates while Canada stagnates. Selling each other homes is not a long-term strategy …

#233 S.Bby on 11.06.15 at 3:12 pm

#188 Ponzius

Be careful. Look what happened to the Loewen Group.

#234 bdy sktrn on 11.06.15 at 3:23 pm

#230 defying odds? on 11.06.15 at 3:02 pm
Is Vancouver different? Too many rich investors?
one bedroom starting at only $379K

http://www.kensingtongardens.ca/
————————————————
some of he cheapest new units in town – on kingsway one of the last down and dirty streets left in van.

#235 Bby604 on 11.06.15 at 3:31 pm

#209 Cici on 11.06.15 at 1:58 pm
Today all of the doomers who constantly argue with, interrogate and harass Garth must bow down and offer their mea culpas:
————–
Are you serious? He loves it , and I think you forgetting he said the same thing about September also think you got some boot polish on your lips aswell

#236 Mf on 11.06.15 at 3:32 pm

#215 Broke Dick on 11.06.15 at 2:32 pm

I don’t see it that way. I think most torontonians think an ETF is a highway north of the city and a mutual fund is a family outing together.

There is tons of speculation here. The speculation is driving the demand and is artificial. Like Rim, Nortel, bb, once some cracks appear in the market the hockey stick will start to point downward. Not much else supports these prices.

if people are buying in the GTA with cash or massive mortgages, increased interest rates will dampen enthusiasm as gains diminish. Couple that with ongoing higher property taxes, utilities, land transfer etc etc. and the enthusiasm will fade further. Mounting Job losses don’t help. Suddenly speculators will flee and the precarious condo glut will crash and ripple into the almighty sfh market. Nothing goes on forever. Not even the sun. Supply and demand can’t alone account for a doubling of prices in half a decade. Speculation is the X factor.

My “evil” boomer parents who bend over backwards for me said they have seen this all before. They bought in the early 90’s with zero competition and paid cash. History is destiny.

By the way, I’m definitely not an outdoorsy type. I’m going to grudgingly stick with Toronto and continue to complain like a true torontonian!

Mf

#237 Nagraj on 11.06.15 at 3:44 pm

Lunch at the Harper home.

Laureeny isn’t speaking, just sitting there staring at her laptop screen, with a look of bitter hatred. Harpo gingerly asks what she’s lookin’ at.

“You wanna know what the hell I’m lookin’ at?! I’ll tell ya what the hell I’m lookin’ at, oh playboy of the western world! I’m lookin’ at a movie. Wanna know what movie? I’ll tell ya. It’s called FLYING DOWN TO RIO. FLYING DOWN TO RIO! Ya thinkin’ of FLYING DOWN TO RIO are ya? Ya are, aren’t ya. You think I dunno, but I do know. First yas gonna play footsie with that Ronia Miranda Ambrosia when yer plunked next to her oh so tightly in the House, and then you’ll whisper Oh Ronia what’s it like in Rio? And then little Miss Ronia Carmen Mirandia Ambrosia – minister of everything, she HAS been minister of everything, hasn’t she – ”

At this point Laureeny breaks into sobs, and screams:
“How could you? How could you do this to me?!”

Harpo mumbles: “What a disgusting display of jealousy.”

Laureeny: “I disgust you? You – you – YOU disgust ME! After every time ya kissed me I’d wipe my lips, WIPE MY LIPS, like this – And every time ya touched me it made my skin crawl, just CRAWL. I hate you, I hate you, I HATE you! I, I, I’ll KILL myself!”

[Before she watched Flying Down to Rio, she watched OF Human Bondage which is where she got the above Oscar-winning little speech.]

Somewhere quieter in Alaberta, Rona Ambrose is writing thank you notes to all the people who sent her congratulations and copies of various works by Ayn Rand.

#238 Ole Doberman on 11.06.15 at 3:45 pm

Wow Obama just rejected Keystone pipeline – now what for Calgary?!

#239 Prairieboy43 on 11.06.15 at 3:49 pm

Events are accelerating. Two changes in Government. Oil glut, Feds increase rates after a decade. Obama squashing keystone. Twenty-five thousand refugee’s coming here in < 60 days. Vancouverites all choked up about foreign cash. "People will eat drywall before taking a loss in real estate". GT
PB43

#240 LP on 11.06.15 at 3:57 pm

#198 Broke Dick on 11.06.15 at 1:16 pm
********************
I’m sitting here looking at today’s photo and re-living a day from near the end of our vacation last July. A little tired of the small shower in our RV, we decided to splurge on a hotel in order to enjoy a king size bed and larger bathroom with shower/tub.

Upon being directed to the parking area for said RV, hubby took the most direct route – beneath the portico at the hotel entrance. Wiped out the whole roof top air conditioner and some other piece of equipment. It was one of those times when the wife keeps her thoughts to herself and her mouth shut.

Thank goodness for insurance!

#241 Canadian on 11.06.15 at 3:58 pm

So was Obama killing Keystone a retaliation for Canada kicking out our relatively pro-american Harper government? Trudeau says he’ll pull the jets out of Syria, is this Obama’s sour grapes?

#242 Blacksheep on 11.06.15 at 4:05 pm

Daisy #228,

Why is Trump getting traction with the American citizenry ?

Like him or hate him, it’s hard to dispute the facts presented by Stefan Molyneux.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6NYP9qmjfU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4u1J6EEhkyM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8hyQDQPEsrs

#243 Retired WI Boomer on 11.06.15 at 4:23 pm

#207 When Will They Raise Rates?

Oh, sorry I mis-understood your post. I AGREE that nothing “should” be done to help the fiscally stupid by government.

Your fear about what Trudeau MIGHT DO may well be founded. I can not tell from my distance of what he, and the others governing might do, but somehow I envision any ‘aid’ to be offered would come with increasing burdens on the solvent and practical. Therefore, your fear is understandable.

Governments believe they must ‘help’…. often with little regard for the additional burdens, or damage done.

When that opinion is incorrect as a broadside, let me know…

#244 Smartalox on 11.06.15 at 4:34 pm

@ S.Bby:

That family profiled in the CBC story, being foreclosed upon by TD, pretty much filled the bingo card of misfortune. A high-ratio, interest-only HELOC? For them? That’s ridiculous; the Feds (F) were right to change the rules and make that kind of lending illegal.

Interesting to see the consequences of the rule change, though: the rules change, and we all think “Crisis Averted!” but for those that signed the contract before the rules changed… are still bound by that contract.

Kind of like entering a room, and hearing the door slam shut behind you, turning to find there’s no knob on the inside.

The fact that the terms of the first contract changed their loan-to-value ratio, so as to disqualify them for returning to a conventional mortgage, we’ll that’s the equivalent of being locked in a room that’s filling with water…

#245 };-) aka Devil's Advocate on 11.06.15 at 4:51 pm

Smart people invest, instead of trying to time the market … – Garth

BINGO ! In financials and real estate

#246 Drill Baby Drill on 11.06.15 at 5:12 pm

Obama having the Keystone application fail today was pure politics. He has to pander to the far leftist crowd in the US or much of the future Democratic funding would leave. Whomever stated previously in this blog today that Obama has pegged Son of Trudeau as weak was dead on the money. What is really insulting is that Obama is very weak himself.

#247 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.06.15 at 5:14 pm

#203 SWL1976 on 11.06.15 at 1:36 pm

#192 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol

Ha Keystone dead. Obama and Kerry bent over and took it up the keester for the tree hugging commie pinko climate assholes. Wait until the climate gate assholes cant get to their tree hugging ceremonies cause there aint no gas. Better try walking losers.

You’re directing your anger at the wrong crowd there Tylenol

There is no shame in wanting to improve our environment, our home and perhaps leave this world better than we found it. Something that many people living off the land for thousands of years clearly understood, but something few people, dare I say from the boomer generation understand today

Now if you really want to understand the true agenda behind the green movement, I suggest you pay close attention to TurnerNations notes refering to Agenda 21

For the new green movement has nothing to do with grassroots individuals wanting a better environment for themselves and their children. On the contrary, it has everything to do with this corporatocracy we live in having utter control over our daily lives.
_____________________________________________
Not angry at all just pointing out the that the tree huggers have a job called climate-gate. They make a living off of the fear of the world becoming an India or China. We are already cleaner than they will ever be. Ive been over to both countries and they have total disregard for the environment. The tree huggers want to tax the hell out of us to pay for their bulbous, pompous fat gravy train of a bullshit make believe corporation that makes what? Nothing. They complain about anything that expires greenhouse gas. Try taking a freaking sailboat across the Atlantic Ocean in the middle of January to go to your climate meeting if you really want to impress us on your commitment to a small carbon footprint! NOT A JET! Take a horse to your daily commute, oh I forgot they fart, that’s green house contribution. Anyway not angry Just pointing out that this carbon taxing bullshit will only work if the whole freaking world is in on it. Otherwise you are shooting yourself in the foot. We need oil, plain and simple! Until fusion is perfected we better use it to our advantage and sell what we don’t need! That is good business sense!

#248 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.06.15 at 5:16 pm

#220 salonist on 11.06.15 at 2:36 pm

195 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol

stick around for junkanoo if you dare
ps, the local jail is just around the corner.

http://www.google.ca/imgres?imgurl=http://www.my-bahamas-travel.com/image-files/junkanoo2.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.my-bahamas-travel.com/bahamasjunkanoo.html&h=640&w=853&tbnid=y3yffK8cJEzeUM:&tbnh=150&tbnw=200&usg=__kunjRRjRNGkg-CaRci-JDBlHLno=&docid=RDHMmzKpkzUoNM&itg=1
_____________________________________________
Oh hell yes I know all about Junkanoo. Your talking to an ex air force pilot quite familiar with Island life.

#249 Drill Baby Drill on 11.06.15 at 5:18 pm

The irony of the leftists in the US forcing the Keystone Pipeline down is that it will now increase shipments of oil by rail. Shipping oil by rail is very hazardous to the environment. Oil shipments by rail have increased 600K barrels per day ever since the initial Keystone application pushback. The rail shipments are guaranteed to increase now.

#250 eddy on 11.06.15 at 5:18 pm

check this, rev can want’s you to donate to Syrian relief fund,, oh yes I’m not making it up

http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/menu-eng.html

#251 Vundo on 11.06.15 at 5:19 pm

#230 defying odds: it does not matter what causes that. The only cure is for people with the means to pay that to look at that product for that price and say “I don’t want to pay that, and I will not buy if I can not get a good deal.” It may require the supression of fear and greed, but things will stop being different when people start saying no.

#252 waiting on the westcoast on 11.06.15 at 5:26 pm

Broke Dick & MF – re: Demand

Income does have a significant effect on demand as it will put a ceiling on the amounts people will pay. Eventually, even in a zero vacancy market, there will be a ceiling to the demand available (based on the highest price someone is willing to pay at that time).

Agree with the commentary in general. With localized supply being diminished, more and more landlords will continue testing the demand curve by pushing up prices.

#253 That didn't take long on 11.06.15 at 5:31 pm

Got an email from the mortgage broker with which i have a lock until January. Lenders are pulling rates up and they have until 4PM today to roll over their current commitments.
Dominion Lending Centres The mortgage hub

#254 Vundo on 11.06.15 at 5:53 pm

#252: I just saw the same thing on social media. Did we just witness the tipping point?

#255 S.Bby on 11.06.15 at 6:12 pm

#244 Smartalox on 11.06.15 at 4:34 pm

and did you notice that the report never actually stated what the final solution to their problem was? It just said the bank was “working with them on a solution”…

#256 Big Dipper on 11.06.15 at 6:19 pm

“#142 IHCTD9 on 11.06.15 at 9:57 am”

“Humans have a frontal lobe, we can reason, and learn – these are hallmarks of humanity.”

We are, just like any other animal on earth, born with just the basic operating brain system and only gain additional synaptic programming from our experiences. Those experiences comes from our environment.

Tell me, what organ do we use that tells our brain what to do?

#257 Patrick on 11.06.15 at 6:24 pm

#236 Mf on 11.06.15 at 3:32 pm
#215 Broke Dick on 11.06.15 at 2:32 pm

There is tons of speculation here. The speculation is driving the demand and is artificial. Like Rim, Nortel, bb, once some cracks appear in the market the hockey stick will start to point downward. Not much else supports these prices.
________________________________

There is still the massive generation of millennials who believe home ownership is the only option. I know a lot who haven’t bought yet and will jump at the chance, even a small 10% price reduction will bring many into the market.

Things that could prop up the bubble for a while still: Continued low rates, Boomers not-just-yet retiring, large cohort of millennials looking to buy, decreasing lending standards and Trudeau’s deficit spending plan could let the good times continue. The Bank, O&G, and Telecom layoffs may have an impact though.

#244 Vundo on 11.06.15 at 5:19 pm
#230 defying odds: it does not matter what causes that. The only cure is for people with the means to pay that to look at that product for that price and say “I don’t want to pay that”
___________________________________

I have come to terms with the fact that I will be the laughing stock of my peers for the time being while I continue to rent. The girlfriend can scream at the top of her lungs about Pinterest and her friends pics on instagram. I’ll let her walk before I buy now lol. Too expensive, just gotta say no.

#258 Ponzius Pilatus on 11.06.15 at 11:58 pm

#233 S.Bby on 11.06.15 at 3:12 pm
#188 Ponzius

Be careful. Look what happened to the Loewen Group.
————–
The Loewen Group did dog funerals?

#259 young & foolish on 11.07.15 at 1:20 pm

“Telus is chopping jobs because they dont want employees. I was an employee and now a contractor.”

It’s the new trend in work. Your future holds less “rights” and less “ownership” …. sort of like the slaves of times past. It’s never different this time ….