Yesterday you read here that markets think the odds of rates rising, are rising. On Wednesday the most powerful babe in the world gave further clarity. Fed boss Janet Yellen testified before Congress – the financial services committee – and said if the economy chugs along, rates go up next month.
So will that happen, Janet?
“At this point, I see the U.S. economy as performing well,” she said. “Domestic spending has been growing at a solid pace and if the data continue to point to growth and firmer prices, a December rate hike would be a live possibility.”
What does that mean? Should you call the bank tomorrow and lock in for five years on that mortgage?
Well, we’ll know more Friday morning. That’s when the all-important jobs report is published, and GreaterFool’s Washington-based unit will be uplinking the data here the moment it’s released. The magic number is two hundred thousand. Over that, and Janet gets aroused. Under, all bets are off.
But you might be interested in knowing what the bond market thinks. This is the place where your mortgage rate is actually set, so it matters. As Yellen addressed the politicians, here’s what happened to yields on US Treasuries.
Also as Yellen spoke: the US dollar strengthened and the Canadian dollar went limp. The loonie ended the day down a half cent, just sneaking over the 76-cent mark. As suggested here yesterday, commodities took a bullet. Oil was down 3% on the day, and gold’s lost twenty-five bucks in the last two days. Expect more if the Fed does move on December 16th and, yeah, I would definitely lock in that home loan.
Now a rate bump, even a baby one this year followed by more in 2016, will not help Canadian real estate one bit. In the bubbly places (there are only two left) news of higher rates coming will further inflame sales and prices as the greater fools among us rush to get in. Yes, that’s the way fools think: it’s better to spend more money now and take on a greater debt at a lower finance rate than to wait and pay less later resulting in a smaller mortgage that has a higher rate. This is known technically as Hipster Logic.
In the not-bubbly markets (the rest of Canada, especially Alberta), a looming rate pop will have the opposite effect – decreasing sales, scaring off buyers and rendering sellers suicidal. This is human nature at its finest. We lust after stuff that’s inflated and rising, while we shun things that are falling and unwanted – even though we loved them previously when they cost more.
After the little tempest I stirred Monday in Calgary – talking about those mansions auctioned off for 40% of their value and the numbers not being included in real estate board stats – I heard from housing analyst Ross Kay.
“Yesterday the entire province of Alberta became aware that two of the most stunning and quality newly built homes were sold. Those homes’ selling prices immediately established their Current Market Value Price in the same way banks have allowed tens of thousands of Calgarians to be encumbered by mortgage debt at their local bank branch. The problems have only begun,” he says.
Kay states that when a $3.9 million house goes at auction for $1.5 million there are more losers than the owner. “The municipality just lost $20,000 a year in property taxes and is now faced with thousands of potential challenges to assessments. Obviously every owner in Calgary with a home worth over $700,000 that is under 10 years old, should immediately be challenging their assessment.”
Banks are having a kitten, too, Kay adds, since a 60% drop in the price of quality homes going to auction makes a joke of thousands of appraisals done over the last year, on which mortgage loans are based. Plus: “Realtors who only months ago claimed that houses were great investments and prices would make small gains this year, are now faced with telling over 52,000 Calgarians who they encouraged to buy homes with those words, that some of those buyers face the real prospect of a 56% loss in one year.”
This is how housing markets unravel. Banks get nervous and pull in their horns. The media starts doubting the Frankenumbers real estate board spoon-feed them every month. Buyers hold out for the better prices they know are coming. The stage after that is capitulation.
Well, we have a shiny new finance minister on whose shoulders such issues will settle. Bill Morneau inherits an economy barely growing, with oil woes, housing imbalances, and a population pickled in debt expecting ponies and sunshine, tax cuts and jobs – exactly what they were promised. Bill has a net worth north of $30 million and last year earned $1.07 million running the HR business his dad founded and passed along.
Of course, we won’t know he’s trustworthy until we learn if he reads this pathetic blog. Watch for the warning signs. They include shedding.
203 comments ↓
Marijuana stocks on the TSX have been going up.
The Trudeau effect possibly?
“Live Possibility” in Yellen-speak = no chance
With CAD here, SFHs in 604 and 416 look positively cheap compared to other cosmopolitan cities in the world. Especially for those with wealth or income in USD, GBP, or RMB.
hopefully the new finance guy for Canada is doing his job/duty for the same reasons you garth are doing this money/dog blog.
thanks again
Finance Ministers seem to have pet names around here, going back to the late Elfin Deity.
Some variation of “More No” ? (Or is he a ‘yes man’?)
“Mourn-Oh” (if its bad news)
1 trillion is direct bank payments + 3 trillion in QE bond buying + 10 trillion in govt deficit spending all to arrive at a 2.2% GDP after 8 years.
It would be comical if it wasn`t so depressingly sad. The economics books can all be burned now cause this is uncharted territory.
Wait, whaaat? The new finance minister is an HR guy? Oh jeez.
#1 JP, big tobacco will scoop up the marijuana business as soon as it’s legalized. After all they can’t sell tobacco anymore, and the production is essentially identical.
hmmm.. back to a blog pet name for Bill Morneau.
paying taxes = Mourning that I have to pay the Bill.
there’s fodder for creativity here!!
So what will Garth’s nickname be for Bill Moreau? I seem to recall Flaherty was the “Dwarf King” or something similarly colorful. I suggest you put it to vote on your blog.
#8 Danforth – Sorry, synchronicity.
Then you better hope for no Yellen hope, becuase that means RECESSION !!! And when US cough, Canada catches a cold, this time around we have 39C fever already ,….
No money, no mortgage payments… figure that rich fools of YVR
The magic number is two hundred thousand. Over that, and Janet gets aroused. Under, all bets are off.
Cover every bet and you can always say you were right.
Now, who could know the labour stats in advance? Fixed that thing yet, by the way? — Garth
Also as Yellen spoke: the US dollar strengthened and the Canadian dollar went limp. The loonie ended the day down a half cent, just sneaking over the 76-cent mark –
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others might concur that the petro dollar is down because oil is.
Read it all. — Garth
Perfect definition of human nature today. Pure gold.
Speaking of gold, this is the exact reason why people were lined up at the bank on Garth’s way to work to buy gold at $1900 and no one is anywhere in sight as gold edges closer to $1000.
Alberta RE. Moving quickly the same way right now.
As I have stated numerous times on this Blog, I have done well being diversified, balanced, liquid, and always having cash, cash flow, income streams, 0 debt, and buying re-balancing regularly, and only buying property to live in when it made mathematical sense. I am a numbers man and use 0 emotions when it comes to my financial security.
I have shared in the last couple of years a few of the movements I have made. I am here to help, and I also appreciate all I learn here too.
In the bubbly places news of higher rates coming will further inflame sales and prices as the greater fools among us rush to get in.
————————————————
As Smokey would say, now you understand Grasshopper.
Whenever I read about huge, luxury, “estate”, dream homes, I think about Casa Loma and megalomania.
Bidding wars are crazy here two separate million dollar homes just sold for $1.4 or $400,000 over asking.
If you take out condos there are barely any homes under a million. No one here sees a bust. And to be honest a one percent rise in rates will not change things.
Asian buyers, no word of a lie some parents were looking at a $1.5 million dollar condo for their son to go to school here for four years, they did not take it, why do you ask? Because the 18 year old wanted one win a view, this one was on the for floor. So mommy and daddy went up two million and bought him a room with a view.
Housing bubble, not here.
What Garth chose to tune out:
YELLEN SAYS IF OUTLOOK WORSENED FED MIGHT WEIGH NEGATIVE RATES
YELLEN SAYS NEGATIVE RATES COULD HELP ENCOURAGE BANKS TO LEND
If rates rise, it’s 1 and done and back to QE just like Japan. The only way the mountain of debt in the economy can be serviced and collapse avoided is with eternally low interest rates.
The con continues.
She said an economic disaster would require other tools. Then she made it clear one is not coming. There will be no negative rates. — Garth
“Marijuana stocks on the TSX have been going up.”
Good momentum investing plays … but certainly not for the long run.
#5: A nickname for the new finance minister is definitely in order. How about More-doe, as in he’ll be taking more money out of our pockets?
Talked with family living in northern Alberta. They have lived there for over 20 years and have never seen the crime rate climb so fast. Homicides and breaking and entering, are off the charts.
Everyone is sitting on pins and needles.
They all still believe (or hope) oil prices will go past $100 real soon.
C’est la vie
Now, who could know the labour stats in advance? Fixed that thing yet, by the way? —
===============================
Not broke in that way, still as irritating as every.
re: Obviously every owner in Calgary with a home worth over $700,000 that is under 10 years old, should immediately be challenging their assessment.”
that is not the way taxes work, if everyones assessed value drops at the same rate taxes will stay the same
Even a 50% drop of too much is still too much. Bring back the $160K starter homes in Harvest Hills and put an end to these $500K inner city knock downs that turn into second rate infills that go for $800K a side.
What a day!
Five year fixed mortgage locked in at 2.54%
And “Mr. Market” finally woke up after Sleep Country released Q3 results. Up 13.27% Today!!
House prices in Calgary are falling much faster than what the Calgary board is admitting through their home price index.
If those in charge of putting together Calgary’s home price index were honest and didn’t exclude sales of homes that sold for 60% below assessment, their price index may be showing a year over year price plunge of 10-15%.
In Victoria we’ve seen monkey business with price indices over the last 5 years.
Calgary’s last major housing price decline saw prices of SFHs drop almost 20% from mid 2007 to early 2009. Before that there was Calgary’s epic housing market crash in the 1980s.
Calgary’s economy is known for its boom and bust cycles. The same can be said about its housing market.
Realtors post comments every day on Garth’s blog claiming that it’s different in Canada. I read one such comment recently claiming that Canadians would rather give up everything else before giving up their homes, making it sound as though people in the US, Spain, Greece, Ireland, Japan, Iceland, etc. wouldn’t do the same with their homes. In other words Canadians are different and this will present a major price correction from happening here in Canada.
Such self-serving claims are pure BS and not backed with any evidence.
It isn’t different in Canada. Plenty of Albertans and British Columbians gave up their homes in the 1980s when house prices crashed.
Canada will go through a major (not skow) price decline. There’s no getting around it for Canada no matter how much mortgage fraud is allowed to happen or how much stimulus is thrown at the housing market or how much lying there is from the housing industry in terms of how far house prices have fallen.
Oh goodie, another 1% sleazeball that profited handsomely off the suffering of other. Ever try having your benefits administered through a Morneau Shepell outsource? I have. Not pretty. They squeeze the sick for every penny of actuarial savings they can.
Can’t wait to see what kinds of reforms to benefits coverage for the public service these two will cook up for “stimulus”.
Garth,
Seems Trudeau is going to act on his TFSA promise first, with recalling parliament on Dec 3 and throne on the 4th. I hope any change is delayed but it’s not looking that way.
#213 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.04.15 at 5:27 pm
Smoking Man you have been very quiet? You have been hitting the books again haven’t you? Your schooled now with your new job. Went to dinner last night at a Casino here in the Bahamas. A place called Seafire, highly recommend if you come here to order the Red Wagyu 14 oz cut. Excellent! The wife and I went out with friends who know the Island well. My wife put $100 on a roulette table and walked out with $1000 after a few bets. She is a brilliant mathematician and can do some math in here head that even makes me spin. Jesus I hope she doesn’t become a Mrs Smoking Man.
……
Ha, enjoy your trip. Yes back in bean town for more training. Went out with the executives last night. We got absolutely trashed. Naturally I was the first one in the office. No light weight in the department of drinking. Had about 15 Manhattans inside 2 hours.
But I’m struggling big time on the reading materials. but I’ve never learned that way anyway.
Making good process, this new Shit not my speciality but the company certainly invests heavily for training.
Everyone helps everyone. great business model.
Love this gig.. By my brain is being punch all the time.
Well it’s a lot better than the social worker running the finance-show in Alberta.
Justin Trudeau declares a war on the 1% during the election and then puts a guy who is part of the top 1/10th of 1% (both in net worth and income) in charge of the war. Think there my be a few loop holes coming in the new tax the rich policies? Too funny.
Hi Garth,
Any comments on the new study in Vancouver West that shows %70 of homes bought worth 600mln in the last 6 months by mainland Chinese of which 30% housewives?
Thanks
Done. — Garth
Good luck Bill, you’ll need it. You might find yourself wishing Joe was still in your job in, say, about a year.
#185 MF on 11.04.15 at 2:58 pm
“I know, and respect, Dion. One of the few men of principle I have encountered in public life. — Garth”
Point taken. His flaw was his inability to have that quality resonate with the voters then. I’m still surprised he is around.
Disagree, you didn’t actually take Mr. T’s point (which is that you need a dope-slap, clearly).
Perhaps you never looked beyond your pearl-clutching response to Mr. Dion’s sensible suggestions about carbon taxes because you were beguiled by the character assassination of said Mr. Dion by He-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named?
#16 Victoria Real Estate Update on 11.03.15 at 7:16 pm
Is Canada a world leader in mortgage fraud?…Housing bubbles always end with a deep (not slow) housing price correction – a deep, economy-chilling price correction that has a multi-year negative impact on wages, jobs and household finances of families…
As always with your posts, I read this with interest.
Although Mr. T has been discussing the foolishness of
real estate speculation for a while, we are starting to see and hear news stories about it more often. This is new; until recently the stories were a lot more upbeat.
I think you are right to focus on “sub-prime” mortgage lending as an indicator of a worsening situation.
A most interesting consideration is what will happen when people cannot afford to make their payments. At the astronomical level of lending in some markets there must eventually be large numbers of complete defaults. Where prices didn’t rise quite so high, perhaps the lenders will keep their borrowers in their houses at least for a while…
Have you looked at any of the research on the US experience?
Interest rate rise in December – “ForgetAboutIt”.
Even a tiny rate increase would cause a huge blow up in the massive derivative market that has been allowed to grow and fester. The truth is that you can’t taper a Ponzi scheme. No rate increase is possible…ever!
A real estate appraisal is an estimate of market value as at a specific date.
If Ross Kay does not understand that, his real estate knowledge is limited. Very limited.
Moreau has to grow into a name…
It could end up being ‘More owe’ or ‘Morose’ or something with ‘Billy’ in it. Either way, he has to make some decisions before getting named.
Give him some time people. Give him some time.
Vancouver is only for rich people now.In the next few years all schools in the lower mainland will be Chinese immersion.The shame of not owning house or condo would be to much for some people in Vancouver.
Go away. — Garth
#116 Ontario’s Left Coast on 11.04.15 at 6:40 am
#32 Freedom First
…Socrates. Actually, when you think about it, it sort of makes sense… As I recall, he didn’t have much use for women either.
Poor Xanthippe, three kids, married to that old coot. A bit like Mrs. Smoking Man, come to think of it.
Give me links to gloom and doom !!!
If she raises rates it will kill housing. Considering our economy is essentially borrowing money to build houses over prime A farmland, I welcome it. This has to be the dumbest economy I’ve ever seen. What better way to guarantee poverty than to destroy prime farmland, close factories, and bankrupt everyone doing it.
I’m renting, because when this goes sour, and it will, this country will look like the soviet union after it tanked.
#14 Freedom First
At current prices, gold is still $1450 in Canadian dollars. Down from $1900 (when we were around par), so it’s not as terrible. It’s bad when money sitting in a savings account beats your rock solid investment, with not even a pitiful monthly payout to keep you warm. Keeping US dollars in a savings account would have done even better since those days, but what kind of an idiot would buy something when it’s on a historic sale, right?
This blog has been forecasting higher rates for the better part of 5 years now. I’ll see it when I believe it.
The Federal Reserve is a quasi-private institution and it is owned by its member banks. The Fed will raise rates when it is in the interest in its member banks to do so. The bigger and better question is, have the banks properly recapitalized.
My view anyway is that this is Japan all over again. Maybe the Fed increases rates to 1%, maybe 2%. They won’t get much higher, not with government and corporate balance sheets the way they are. America’s biggest companies used ZIRP to raid their balance sheets to buy back stock and boost EPS.
Will be very interesting to see the Fed try and get out this one. America’s debtors, including its own government, can afford higher rates. Yet, pension funds will go insolvent without higher rates.
I still remember my finance class in the early 90s when we used 7% as the risk free rate of return in our calcs. Wouldn’t that be nice? We wouldn’t need higher TFSA limits to encourage savings! 5% rates would encourage Canadians all on their own. Funny how free markets work.
IT IS URGENT THEY NORMALIZE TO RESTORE BALANCE TO OUR ECONOMY.
I doubt we’ll ever see a print for the jobs report above 200,000 in our lifetime again. As America slides deeper into recession more and more people will exit the country. One thing for certain is for the uneducated the jobs print each month from now on will be below the ADP print. What we’re looking at is either QE4 followed by negative interest rates in America or negative interest rates without QE4. America has become the “new” Japan.
The U.S. is not in recession, and rates will not be cut. — Garth
Home Capital Mortgage Brokers reveals that the amount of mortgages obtained fraudulently is actually DOUBLE what was first reported… and they’re only one quarter of the way through their review.
Meanwhile, RBC plans to lift limits on mortgages written for newcomers. (NOTE: I’m not saying that mortgages to newcomers are obtained fraudulently! But I do want to raise the point of shoddy vetting practices that got Home Capital into a deepening pit of trouble, and wonder aloud about how prevalent it is in the industry)
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/home-capital-brokers-alleged-fraud-bigger-than-estimated/article27110594/?service=mobile
A group of 45 brokers suspended by Home Capital Group Inc. for alleged mortgage fraud generated nearly $2-billion worth of outstanding mortgages for the lender, twice as much as executives originally estimated, the company revealed Wednesday.
Earlier this year, Home Capital, Canada’s largest alternative mortgage lender, admitted it had suspended dozens of brokers after an internal investigation revealed that some had submitted fraudulent mortgage applications that artificially boosted the incomes of borrowers. At the time, the company said it believed the brokers had generated a total of nearly $960-million in mortgage loans for the lender last year.
Not a chance on Yellen raising rates…..keep on wishing for that one. Love your blog.
#5 Danforth on 11.04.15 at 6:50 pm
Finance Ministers seem to have pet names around here, going back to the late Elfin Deity.
————-
Let’s see…Moreau as in Dr. Moreau? According to Wikipedia, “The Island of Doctor Moreau is an 1896 science fiction novel by H. G. Wells, who called it ‘an exercise in youthful blasphemy’.”
Should be lots of fertile soil for a moniker in here!
TrudeauMania 2.0 I tell thee. Just wait till this Gen X dude gets on the world scene. And oh yes, I see the TFSA rollback in place for Jan. 1, 2016. He is not letting moss grow under his election promises.
#3 LH on 11.04.15 at 6:48 pm
With CAD here, SFHs in 604 and 416 look positively cheap compared to other cosmopolitan cities in the world. Especially for those with wealth or income in USD, GBP, or RMB
***************************************
Sure, if a person wants to buy one to actually LIVE in it, that’s true.
If, on the other hand, a person wants to purchase a unit to use it as a store of wealth or to speculate then no – property in Canada is a loser. I mean sure, the thing is cheap – but would it be an investment of the sort that has encouraged foreign investment up till now? Not to my way of thinking.
#158 chapter 9 on 11.04.15 at 1:20 pm
Muslim migrants…immigration jihad/Trojan horse…Islamic..rape…HIV/Aids, polio, TB, typhoid, syphillis, cholera…And it will only get worse…
Even if you are a troll, I’m pretty sure you have rabies with all that froth flying about…I do wish you’d go and spew elsewhere, you sad, sad man.
Re: #23 rk usa on 11.04.15 at 7:19 pm
If nothing is actually sold in a certain area of Calgary the assessment value will actually increase with the Mil rate setting for that year. Something has to be sold for assessments to drop. Prices have already fallen about 25 percent from last November. Remember what a house is listed at and what it sells at are two completely different things.
You think that negative interest rates are going to be bad. Wait until your $500,000 house becomes $150,000 like it did in Japan in the 1990’s and still has not recovered.
Also, municipalities and provinces will scarp property assessments for taxing policies and just raise taxes by what they can get away with.
I would not be surprised of a doubling of property taxes in 6 to 7 years after real estate properties crash.
The September job report was for 142k. For the life of me I can not see it doing better then that. What industries in the States hire in October?
Is it Santa Clause training time?
#3 LH on 11.04.15 at 6:48 pm
With CAD here, SFHs in 604 and 416 look positively cheap compared to other cosmopolitan cities in the world. Especially for those with wealth or income in USD, GBP, or RMB.
With a comment like that one LH must stand for “Lunk Head”.
The biggest achievement today is that harpo is done and gone as PM. The cpc and the fearmongering is a failed experiment.
It is uncertain what the future will bring, but many Canadians know that it will be better than the harpo policies.
“Tax authorities in the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia have purchased a USB stick reported to hold evidence of tax avoidance and illegal deals worth more than €600m (£427m).
The news magazine said the data covers trade volume of €70bn and holds information pertaining to hidden money, as well as details of fake business transactions – deals that led to an unjustified refund of capital gains tax to certain companies…The seller is a former high-ranking tax expert with an in-depth knowledge of tax secrets in the German and European financial industries, and is reported to have negotiated with tax authorities for more than a year over the information, according to the German financial daily Handelsblatt.”
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/nov/03/north-rhine-westphalia-tax-avoidance-usb-data-germany
#45 Tony on 11.04.15 at 8:10 pm
I doubt we’ll ever see a print for the jobs report above 200,000 in our lifetime again. As America slides deeper into recession more and more people will exit the country. One thing for certain is for the uneducated the jobs print each month from now on will be below the ADP print. What we’re looking at is either QE4 followed by negative interest rates in America or negative interest rates without QE4. America has become the “new” Japan.
The U.S. is not in recession, and rates will not be cut. — Garth
…..
Agree with Garth.
The only thing impeading the grouth of the corp I’m billing is finding qualified resources. We are moving to a bigger office in Jan. And this week had a Shit load of people looking to sub lease building we are in..
USA is booming in The smart services business.
Sucks for dress makers and tool and dye makers.
Thats life, adapt or starve…Change is constant.
Re: #12 Broke Dick on 11.04.15 at 7:02 pm
Taking a shot at the Friday jobs print. Reasoning the jobs print will always be about 15,000 below the ADP print each month in the future ad infinitum lets try 167,000.
Everybody should be challenging their assessment.
Highly unlikely as you are probably statute barred.
Come on Ross, read the provincial Assessment Act. A bit of legalese, however it’s a good read.
Re: #53 conan on 11.04.15 at 8:32 pm
The jobs print and the ADP print aren’t supposed to be far apart. Obama has told Yellen to keep interest rates low. So the Jobs figure will always be below the real world ADP figure. At an ADP print of 182,000 it would be almost impossible for a jobs print below 142,000.
The White House does not tell the Fed how to set monetary policy. — Garth
We can all point to key financial metrics. If the US has had 10 consecutive years of growth less than 3%, and with other nations increasing stimulus, a rate hike is only going to create more headwinds for the US. How can you refute that Garth?
If rates are increased it will be a one and done approach only intended to preserve the optics around the perception that the Fed has it figured out.
The Fed has never had a one-and-done policy, and won’t now. — Garth
#34 Nora Lenderby on 11.04.15 at 7:44 pm
“Disagree, you didn’t actually take Mr. T’s point (which is that you need a dope-slap, clearly).
Perhaps you never looked beyond your pearl-clutching response to Mr. Dion’s sensible suggestions about carbon taxes because you were beguiled by the character assassination of said Mr. Dion by He-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named?”
Hey Nora,
Your post sounds like a pathetic attempt at bad poetry.
Garth knows the man and I don’t.
As a voter I only know SD’s political persona.
Remember the 2008 election results? If you can’t remember that SD’s problem was his good traits and intentions did not come across well on the political stage then it is you that needs a dope smack (whatever that is)..
Come to think of it, our new PM may make that easier for you to obtain very soon.
MF
#61…so please enlighten us Garth. how can you believe that GDP growth at 3% or less, inflation around 2% and a US debt load of $19 Trillion actually support a series of rate hikes? You got me…where’s the camera?
OMG
RBC sent me a letter.
They’re going to increase my HELOC from prime to PRIME + 1/2%
Ugh.
Now Garth after all the lies and BS the Fed has come out with, in particulat the past 8 years, do you actually believe anything Mother Fellen says? Yes, negative interest rates are likely in the US,( she said that!) and eventually Canada. It’s in Sweden, Austria, Switzerland, Germany…and many other countries..We’re next..Get ready for that boys and girls..The Fed wants you to take your cash out of your savings accounts and buy RE or Stocks!! That’s what negative interest rates is all about. They don’t want you to save…but rather speculate!! The stock markets are up because in the US as well as Europe, the individual companies as well as the central banks are buying stocks!! Why? .This is their last desperate attempt to keep the game going.. Not gonna end well..
She most certainly did not say negative rates were likely. The misinformation here is stunning. — Garth
Even if you didn’t vote for Justin the Boy Wonder, you gotta admit politics in Canada has been pretty darn interesting since the election.
Wonder how long the honeymoon will last.
I just updated my Vancouver housing charts:
http://www.chpc.biz/
Vancouver SFD & Strata average prices scored a hat trick with all classes of un-affordable housing hitting new record high prices.
Take that San Francisco, New York, London etal.
Now what are we doing for cash flow?
The Fed has never had a one-and-done policy, and won’t now. — Garth
————
The fed also has never had rates this low for this long or embarked on such a money printing spree either. How can they raise when the rest of the world is easing without erasing the little inflation they have ? You never answer this oh wise one
Yes Garth……negative interest rates..from none other than CNBC…September 20th ..and there are other more recent sources as well..
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/20/fed-raises-possibility-of-negative-interest-rates.html
She was asked a hypothetical, and answered it. She did not say negative rates are likely. Nor will they occur. Get a grip. — Garth
Good news for savers, I first meet Bill when he was working at St Michaels. He saved a lots of money for hospital by bringing new ideas on the the table. Full brakes on housing market, mark my words.
Its a live possibility that ms yellen will be sitting on her hands for the next decade.
#63 Wall Of Worry on 11.04.15 at 8:56 pm
#61…so please enlighten us Garth. how can you believe that GDP growth at 3% or less, inflation around 2% and a US debt load of $19 Trillion actually support a series of rate hikes? You got me…where’s the camera?
———–
Bump. And they wish they had 3 percent ! They have 8 years of way below trend growth pretty much a recession and they are going to raise now? Gimme a break , the world is so screwed if they do, Christine will never allow it
Mr. Turner,
– “Yellen keeps yapping”. No, the FED won’t raise (short term) rates anytime soon. The FED FOLLOWS the market rates. If the FED would do so then the US is in VERY DEEP doo-doo. Long term rates (10 year or 30 year) is quite a different story. Yes, those are going higher. And rates going higher means that the price of a T-bond will drift lower. VERY Deflationary.
– No, the US economy is actually weakening. Take this news: US Earnings are the worst since 2009.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-04/this-is-the-worst-u-s-earnings-season-since-2009
Another worrying tid bit: Corporate solvency has reached the lowest level since 2009.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-15/corporate-america-s-epic-debt-binge-leaves-119-billion-hangover
And now I am supposed to think the FED is raising (short term) rates ?
#46 Smartalox
The brokers who participate in fraud obviously don’t get a pass, but it’s important to remember that for every lie or fraudulent document they produce there is a ‘willing accomplice’ going along with it. The mortgage applicant. Who are these people and why are their numbers increasing? That’s the question nobody wants to ask. Too ‘sensitive’.
I am pleased that Kent Hehr from Calgary Centre is in the Cabinet. He defeated Joan Crockatt of the CPC. Kent is a good man and will serve us well.
Joan was no Nora Lenderby, the latter being a woman whose intellect is only exceeded by her beauty.
” Bill has a net worth north of $30 million and last year earned $1.07 million running the HR business his dad founded and passed along.”
I wouldn’t hire an inheritance case to clean my toilets….and now we have a ‘maintenance man’ for a finance minister…..no wonder the BNS came out today and announced that the $C will be at .72 cents long before 2017 comes around and will stay ‘limp’ when the rest of the bad news on the economy dogs Canadians who made a protest vote at the behest of the Hate Harper media.
Joey Goebbels was right…..lie big…lie long and eventually people will believe anything. I take solace in the fact that 70% of Canadians did not vote for Trudy and the Turds…..but I’m getting out of the $C and leaving the country ..because I can.
I pity the people who have to stay here….can you imagine what lettuce is going to cost when the $C hits .72 cents? It makes me wonder why the unions are all getting whopping big raises now. The cash offload to the civil servants might look bad when seniors are eating garbage thrown out by the Food Banks.
#9 pathcontrolmonk
“So what will Garth’s nickname be for Bill Moreau?”
I propose “Bill Morass”.
http://www.cansofunds.com/the-canadian-housing-market/
What kind of an idiot would buy a house that big for that amount of money? How can people so rich be so stupid? I guess he got what he deserved.D
#215 The Other Chris on 11.04.15 at 5:39 pm
I don’t think Trudeau’s cabinet choices are all that bad overall. Except Justice Minister Wilson-Raybould, who is a massive s.35 activist.
——————————
racist. misogynist. how dare you.
if the photos are much of an indication her strongest asset relative to all the other ministers are her freckles. (get a close-up shot now!) – they had to adjust the other 2 bc mps photos in the van sun cause hers was so close up!
http://torontolife.com/how-private-lenders-and-debt-crazed-homebuyers-are-pushing-torontos-real-estate-market-to-the-brink/
And the walls fell down.
#17 “So mommy and daddy went up two million and bought him a room with a view.”
“To heck with New York, L.A. or those ivy league schools. We wanted the best for our son, so we paid more for a condo so that he could go to school in Vancouver.”
Yeah, right. Just give me a second to turn off the siren and flashing strobe lights on my crap detector.
Here’s the latest on negative interest rates in the US Garth…Stated by Janet Fellen herself today..
http://news.yahoo.com/fed-consider-negative-rates-economy-soured-yellen-173212674–business.html
Work on your reading comprehension, Mikey. Nowhere has she said this improbable event is likely. It isn’t. — Garth
Moreau
Mor on
Mor ass
Mor bid
Mor tax
This is going to be fun! I think we’re about to find out if the theory (in the everyday sense of the word) of peak government turns out to be fact.
Dear Pathetic Blog although I do agree with you the the US Fed does need to raise rates. Her babeness per the great grandmother set did say these very same words on the conditions required by the economy just 6 months ago.
That sound you hear is a gigantic industrial strength vacuum engine sucking in greenbacks from all the way out to Mars; back into some machine/vault in the USA. Apparently, money is being pulled out of Canada at a very high rate and things have barely started. No job. No mortgage. Hunker down time. No debts is a great buffer if that describes your space.
I love our little RE short position…
and no margin!
http://torontolife.com/how-private-lenders-and-debt-crazed-homebuyers-are-pushing-torontos-real-estate-market-to-the-brink/
There are many qualities that make a good homeowner. Aaron Miller had none of them, and the banks knew it. He wasn’t good with tools or money. As a self-employed contractor in film and television post-production, his job security was precarious. His credit history was spotty at best. He and his wife, Jenna, whose names have been changed for this article, had three kids, and the prohibitive cost of daycare kept Jenna at home, which put them at a financial disadvantage. But they wanted a house of their own, and by 2004, with his family’s help, they had accumulated a nest egg of $70,000.
They wanted to put that money down on a $317,000 could-be-charming Victorian semi in Dovercourt Village. “It was a rooming house,” recalls Aaron, “so it had been carved up into lots of small rooms. We planned to fix up the kitchen and the bathroom. Jenna wanted to make it the house of her dreams.” But the mortgage shopping didn’t go as well as the house shopping. They went to a broker, who hooked them up with Meridian, Ontario’s largest credit union, to secure a mortgage. Luckily, Meridian didn’t require someone else to co-sign.
#43 devore
Yes. It is wise to buy/rebalance, be diversified and liquid at all times, as one never knows what is going to happen.
Yes. I could have used a better example than gold because of the cad drop. Perhaps all of the recent RE crashes world wide would have been a better example. Even silver which went from $48 to $16. I have also said many times on here to keep your PM exposure to a maximum of 5% of your net worth, as it won’t hurt anyone but will hopefully restrain the gold bug in them.
Going all in any one a$$et is insanity. Any idiot is aware of this. I know.
#57 Smoking Man on 11.04.15 at 8:42 pm
#45 Tony on 11.04.15 at 8:10 pm
USA is booming in The smart services business.
Sucks for dress makers and tool and dye makers.
________________________
Not my industry but tool and die seems pretty busy in southern ontario. Not sure what the numbers say. Can’t speak for the dress makers tho.
The Globe and Mail reports in its Wednesday edition that Target Corp.’s largest landlord in Canada is feeling the pain of its worst year yet for retail failures. The Globe’s Marina Strauss writes RioCan REIT, whose malls had housed 26 of Target’s 133 stores, now owns 19 of those leases, resulting in more than $11-million of annual unpaid rent plus an estimated $7.5-million-plus of annual maintenance costs and taxes. RioCan is in talks with Target’s U.S. parent over its obligations to cover landlord guarantees for rent on remaining lease terms. RioCan is grappling with issues around such faltering merchants as the Future Shop and photo retailer Blacks. “This has been one bad year,” RioCan chief Edward Sonshine told The Globe. “It’s been a very ugly year — the ugliest ever. Just look at the amount of square footage returned to us.” RioCan’s third-quarter occupancy rate fell to 94 per cent from 97 per cent a year earlier, and Mr. Sonshine does not expect to see its usual 97-per-cent level until 2017. RBC analyst Michael Smith said the financial impact of “re-tenanting” empty Target stores “will be manageable” because most Target leases are well located with below-market rents.
Finance Minister ( 30 mill Bill) is a name for Billy although I have to ask,why does one need to work with wealth like that? Maybe he can fix thing for the rest of us?
Is it just me, or does Bill Morneau look like Mark Carney’s twin brother?
I love this place
#60 Tony on 11.04.15 at 8:47 pm
Maybe not Obama per say but I know what you mean.
Garth did you not get the invite to the Illuminati decoder ring club when you were in Privy Council?
#94 Dave on 11.04.15 at 10:01 pm
I love this place
Its the start of you’re down fall. Trust me.
We will just have to wait until Dec to see if Janet will raise rates. I noticed the 10 year has raised a bit already.
I would love to see rates raise .25 to .5% good for ST Bonds. Then, a little later do it again, then again. At 3-4% we should be better than zero.
Since I don’t set policy and have no crystal ball I’ll wait with the rest of the humans.
As for markets we are doing quite well in my humble thoughts. Numbers look pretty fair, other than oil impacted stuff, rest seems to be humming right along.
I will not complain. I find most ‘dumb’ events happen when my ham hands get involved. That’s a lessen well learned over the years.
I kind of like “Morose” for the new Finance Minister Bill Moreneau, myself. Will likely fit the conditions he finds before too long.
As some people are saying it’s really hard to believe that Vancouver home prices will ever decline………might as well move away……..
The “yes she will, no she won’t” bluster, bull and banter on this commiserable, deplorable, distressing, feeble, inadequate, lamentable, miserable, paltry, rueful, sorry-assed blog (or simply “pathetic” if you prefer), is all rather laughable, this being a financial/investing/RE blog and all.
Fact is, you ham-and-eggers are completely missing the point. Much to your chagrin, Granny Yellen, the Federal Reserve, the Dow, the S&P500, the NASDAQ, the Russell2000, and even the bruised & battered TSX still fail to give a rat’s inflamed ass what you think.
Ms. Yellen has never been wrong yet on a direction-of-the-economy call. Why, you poor unwashed impoverished fools ask? Because she always has managed from the facts, pure and simple. She manages from the facts. This is not to suggest that current Chairman of the Federal Reserve is without passion and emotion. Not at all. But unlike some of you trollops, she plays with those things when suitable, and then wraps them up and puts them away where she found them. They are far removed from her decision-making processes. And thus her success.
Were some of you jackasses to follow her example, you might find ways to profit from what is surely coming; namely a series of rather miniscule rate hikes that will be insignificant when viewed from a couple of years in the future.
So. What to do?
1. Avoid commodities for now, as they are as badly damaged as a Fort Mac crack-whore, and will treat you about as well.
2. Increase holdings of US equity-based ETFs. Personally, I like those indexed to large-cap growth & value, US REITS, US small caps, US mid-caps, International equity (including small-caps), US Tech, US healthcare, and US financials.
3. The common, conventional wisdom holds that Emerging Markets would suffer from a rate-hike, so avoid for now.
4. There are hundreds of badly broken stocks and ETFs right now that might appear to be ‘bargains’. A word of caution. ‘Bargains’ are only proven to be bargains with the benefit of hindsight. Be prudent and patient and wait for these cripples to get into confirmed uptrends. This infers a series of higher highs and higher lows, with rising moving averages.
Good luck
#81 Ret: “To heck with New York, L.A. or those ivy league schools. We wanted the best for our son, so we paid more for a condo so that he could go to school in Vancouver.”
That’s your fabricated perspective, not theirs. Whatever their reasons, rich Asian students are a fact of life in Vancouver. Their parents buy them condos and six-figure cars. Ain’t nothing new or unusual about it.
I am chipping in to the give the Finance Minister a nick name pot.
1) Carney Clone
2) Sauron of Mordor
3) Bill the Chill
#99 JimH on 11.04.15 at 10:18 pm
Translation: I’m scared. Don’t do anything.
I propose “Bill Morass”.
Winner!
#67 Brian Ripley on 11.04.15 at 9:04 pm
Love your website.
Fantastic work. Kudos!
We will see what Justin and the Liberal party promised and do or is it all a front? Justin played the Jack Layton style by rolled-sleeved shirt, faded jeans and shaking hands with ordinary people. I believe that #31 BS is correct is saying “loopholes for the rich.” My guess for nickname is B(S) Moron, lol.
Socialism can be argued back and forth, is well and alive now here, with that aside, we should be careful of extracting resources, who has the power, the control to align with the earth (a referee for us to live by).
“Yes, that’s the way fools think: it’s better to spend more money now and take on a greater debt at a lower finance rate than to wait and pay less later resulting in a smaller mortgage that has a higher rate.”
LoL. More like, over the next few years, greater fools will be left scratching their heads yet again when faced with double digit RE price gains, marginally higher interest rates and through the roof rental costs – in the 416 that is.
Is there a stat for Finance Minster life Expectancy? Seems like a stressful job. Unless you are Brian Wilson. ” lying in Bed like Brian Wilson did”. Insurance companies wouldn’t insure you. But Canada will, because we got your back. The job would require picking a winner/loser daily. Good luck Bill Morneau.
#75 Washed Up Lawyer on 11.04.15 at 9:19 pm
I am pleased that Kent Hehr from Calgary Centre is in the Cabinet. He defeated Joan Crockatt of the CPC. Kent is a good man and will serve us well. Joan was no Nora Lenderby, the latter being a woman whose intellect is only exceeded by her beauty.
Haha…idiot (I saw what you did there :-)
…of course there is at least one MP from Alberta in the Cabinet…it’s the new inclusive world of Mr. Trudeau’s team, doncha know?
Ottawa is full of vapid, giggly fans gasping for a glimpse of the Messiah. And that’s just the press corps.
Stereotypes of Calgary Neighborhoods…..pretty funny if you know the city.
http://imgur.com/udpgw0D?tags
Priddis is in the South west….where all the “Horsie” People live.
x-nay on BM.
how’s about “Bill More Dough”?
“would be a live possibility” – yeah right. I won’t hold my breath. Raise rates right before Christmas and when Americans spend the most on crap they don’t need and pay for it in January. Not very likely.
The word ‘possibility’ can be taken any which way. Anything is possible, even me winning the lottery… ain’t gonna happen though and neither is this sham.
The municipality just lost $20,000 a year in property taxes and is now faced with thousands of potential challenges to assessments. Obviously every owner in Calgary with a home worth over $700,000 that is under 10 years old, should immediately be challenging their assessment.”
Priddis is too far from Calgary to immediately affect assessments in the City ( 40 kms from Calgary according to Google Maps ). Ross Kay is in Toronto, where established practice is to take comparables up to 1 km away. He can challenge this if he likes.
On Google Maps, there are a dozen houses in Priddis which are the same kind of houses that just sold. These should take an immediate shellacking.
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/shellacking
established practice upholds current assessments in Calgary but the unravelling will come in the spring. Block by block.
BM= Bill Money
For quarter percent rise there is so much of drama what a Joke
#106 Mike C on 11.04.15 at 10:48 pm
Have you ever read one of Garth’s posts?
Rental market aint going anywhere.
Had a raise lately? Me neither.
MF
113 Freedom First on 11.04.15 at 11:36 pm
BM= Bill Money
—————————————————-
William Munny coming to town to clean up the rot.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KmhGYB4NdYc
NO US STYLE HOUSING CRASH IN CANADA
Let’s get this out of the way – HOUSING PRICES IN SOME CANADIAN MARKETS ARE MORBIDLY OVERVALUED. Toronto and YVR are in as much or bigger a bubble than the most bubbly of US cities pre-GFC.
But we simply do not have the conditions in Canada for a meltdown like occurred in the US.
The US housing meltdown was a combination of massive mortgage fraud, massive overbuilding, significant unemployment.
MOST IMPORTANTLY it caused insolvency in much of the US financial sector and resulted in a GLOBAL financial market teetering on insolvency.
During the GFC banks were not lending to one another let alone some smuck in Phoenix that wanted to buy a house.
No matter how much people HOPE, we do not and will not have those conditions in Canada. AND MOST IMPORTANTLY a Canadian housing crisis will have little if any impact on major Canadian banks and absolutely no impact on world financial markets.
Yes, I know people have all kinds of stories about mortgage fraud in Canada, and overbuilding in YVR and CMHC’s bloated obligations – but its all bush league compared to the US experience. The Americans know how to have a financial crisis of excess and almost blow-up the world. We in Canada are a more civilized bunch, and at best would maybe blow-up a tin can with a firecracker.
So do not expect anything but a muted price correction in TO and YVR – maybe 10-15% initially.
BUT MARKETS WILL REVERT back to LONG-RUN NORMAL VALUES. It may just take a DECADE like it did in Toronto the last time we had a housing bubble (late 1980s for those of you under 50).
Housing market always correct to long-run values and this time is no different.
#114 MD on 11.04.15 at 11:40 pm
“For quarter percent rise there is so much of drama what a Joke”
Completely agree.
But I think it’s a big event only because it signals a reverse of the course of the last decadeish.
Means a lot because the economy has become totally dependent on zero rates that even a minute rise will have big consequences.
Anecdote: Girlfriend said one of her friends, a family of 4 new Canadians, just lost a bidding war for a modest Scarborough home.
They intended on spending 550,000, all with a massive down payment of 25k. The parents make minimum wage.
Probably had all the scum realtors and slimeball mortgage brokers drooling for their blood.
This market is based on nothing but hot air it’s so pathetic.
MF
RE:
Like trickle down economics…..
Jim H #99
“2. Increase holdings of US equity-based ETFs. Personally, I like those indexed to large-cap growth & value, US REITS, US small caps, US mid-caps, International equity (including small-caps), US Tech, US healthcare, and US financials.”
Agreed…take the hit on the Canadian Peso ( like the smart money the world over….the outflows of money out of Canada since the election have been like the Christmas Eve Tsunami in SE Asia)…..and buy the US ETFS. The BNS forecasts the $C below 70 cents through 2017 and beyond.
Don’t walk…run away from Canadian investments…unless your 20 and have 45 years to wait. Then perhaps look at super companies like CGI Group…GIB.A….or QSR…the new and improved TIMS run by smarter people than Canada could muster.
The ones that cost the least and have the best overall track record and exposure are the
1) VTI ( costs like $40 bucks to own for 10 years…stupid cheap) . US Large Cap all Index
2) IWM ( same stupid cheap MER.) US small cap..Russell 2000
3) VXUS International all Index.
You ever think that maybe the “yellow peril” that everyone is lighting their hair on fire about,might just start to sell their properties.All the dumbass don’t have a million people will flock to pay even more to not be priced out anymore,leaving the rich investors even richer,they could even come back and buy the same house back for 50% from the distressed owners.If I had lots of cash(which according to a lot of the posters the “yellow peril”does)this is how I would acquire more wealth by milking the herd.Rinse and repeat.
We lust after stuff that’s inflated and rising, while we shun things that are falling and unwanted.
————————————————————–
That’s news to me. I had no second thoughts about scooping up REITs 2 years ago when they were dirt cheap, nor did I have any second thoughts about scooping up CPD and XPF this year when they were (and still are) on sale. Who in their right mind doesn’t like a good bargain?
Garth, don’t you know by now it is all a hoax… Rate will not rise because they can’t.
No one talks about the fact that she also mentioned if things were to worsen she is not ruling out Negative interest…
For how many more years will you fall for this con??
Does anyone want to speculate how we are going to spend/invest our 10 billion dept/stimulus per year?
Obviously Bombardier will get a fair bit to stay afloat. Not the end of the world, high tech manufacturing will have some good people (We should at least try to be the best, better than Boeing and Airbus. Not just prop up inferior tech with handouts.).
Pipes to shift the dirty black goop? Good way to spread the loot to a wide range of the population (blue/white collar, lots of provinces), but, given how terrible the commodities are (and if the price rebounds, the American frackers will come back online) and the environmental concerns, not the best option.
Better urban transit? The rest of the country can’t stand Toronto (Calgary people are truck/car people). But it might work. But, instead of paying some foreign companies to dig the tunnels, get the engineering departments of the top 10ish Uni’s to teach/build those tunnel boring machines (like the Chunnel one) and put in kick ass subways under Toronto, Montreal way out to the burbs (Vancouver is probably too earthquake-y). Too far fetched.
Try to start a silicon valley north? Invest in the CS departments at the top 10ish Uni’s and just fund a bunch of small groups for 1-3 years and let them do whatever they want (95% will screw up, but their might be a gem or two)? There is already tons of wasted government tech handouts that go to companies that don’t really do any high tech stuff. So probably a no go.
Replace the CN tracks with some high speed thingamadoodle? Good spread on the money if we design and build the thing ourselves. Again too pie in the sky foolishness.
Try to bring manufacturing back from Asia by teaching kids how to build/code robots to make the stuff here? (Most of my ideas involve pouring money into CS/Engineering for some reason ;)) Then shift it around on the TGV CN V2.0 tracks?
*sigh*
No, we will probably shovel it into housing somehow. At least when they are writing the textbooks in 100 years we will #1 for something in history (take that tulips, east indies and south sea companies).
I wanna build robots, tunnels and TGV trains!
complexity and prosperity
Here’s a quote from an article about the aerospace industry in Canada. The message is that prosperity is based on managing complexity.
I make the link to government and argue that government must manage complexity but one of the things that inhibits this management is its simplistic policy on internet publishing. The policy being the common-look-and-feel.
aerospace industry: Instead, Canada’s industry remained focused on exports, not on securing a guaranteed place on a national champion. We can measure that success using trade figures with the U.S., Canada’s largest aerospace trading partner by a large margin. Canada’s total aerospace exports to the U.S. grew by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just 3.7% in 2005-14, dragged down by slumping platform sales, particularly Bombardier regional aircraft. But Canada’s exports of aircraft structures and components to the U.S. (to be used in U.S. aircraft) grew by a very strong 11.4% CAGR. Engines and engine parts grew at a respectable 5.3% pace.
http://aviationweek.com/commercial-aviation/opinion-how-canada-s-aerospace-industry-dodged-bullet
the medium is the message: complexity In some ways the Government is well disposed to master complexity. At Agriculture Canada there are dedicated experts who work at improving Canada’s agriculture. It’s very complicated: crops, pests, pesticides , fertilizers, transportation, trade agreements, food safety. And soils. However the Common-Look-And-Feel Standard interferes with the ability of the Department to publish its work. As documented by Anne Kingston, Canada’s data is vanishing.
http://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/vanishing-canada-why-were-all-losers-in-ottawas-war-on-data/
One of the drivers of the standard is the policy to enable access to the visually handicapped. While a noble policy, it basically enforces the erasure of reams and reams of internet pages. Such as the Canadian Soil Information Service where I worked for 30 years:
http://sis.agr.gc.ca/cansis/index.html
The result of the common-look-and-feel policy is to attack complexity. The Canadian Soil Information Service has been threatened with being shut down. Again and again. Once shut down, it will be 100% compliant with the new policy. In attacking complexity, the common-look-and-feel is attacking the prosperity of our country.
Oh, so our favorite schoolmarm, Janet Yellen tells us that the Fed is predicting continued growth in the US economy. Well that’s a relief! I mean when has the Fed ever been wrong in their economic predictions? Just like when good ol’ Helicopter Ben assured us that those pesky little sub-prime mortgages would not impact the US economy in the least.
Of course, as anyone managing a factory will tell you, in order to manage production you must be able to forecast accurately the results that changing your inputs will generate. In the case of the Fed, the inputs are interest rates and QE. Their extremely accurate forecasting record will allow them to precisely manage these inputs to get exactly the desired level of growth in the US economy. What could possibly go wrong??
#5 Danforth on 11.04.15 at 6:50 pm
Finance Ministers seem to have pet names around here, going back to the late Elfin Deity.
Some variation of “More No” ? (Or is he a ‘yes man’?)
“Mourn-Oh” (if its bad news)”
Maybe Canada could be referred to as the The Island of Doctor Morneau, land of the real estate hounds,
#121 Gee We’re Stupid when we protest vote. on 11.05.15 at 12:01 am
Jim H #99
“2. Increase holdings of US equity-based ETFs. Personally, I like those indexed to large-cap growth & value, US REITS, US small caps, US mid-caps, International equity (including small-caps), US Tech, US healthcare, and US financials.”
Agreed…take the hit on the Canadian Peso ( like the smart money the world over….the outflows of money out of Canada since the election have been like the Christmas Eve Tsunami in SE Asia)…..and buy the US ETFS. The BNS forecasts the $C below 70 cents through 2017 and beyond. …”
Wouldn’t it make sense to buy Canadian equities on margin….as the currency plummets, settle up with your USD that you have been hoarding for years….or of course run a currency hedge if you have new USD stockpile
Maybe I’m the last hopeless optimist left, but I just can’t see how Morneau can be worse than Oliver.
I just set the lowest bar possible. We’ll see if he manages to clear it.
56 jess on 11.04.15 at 8:38 pm
“Tax authorities in the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia have purchased a USB stick reported to hold evidence of tax avoidance and illegal deals worth more than €600m (£427m).
The news magazine said the data covers trade volume of €70bn and holds information pertaining to hidden money, as well as details of fake business transactions – deals that led to an unjustified refund of capital gains tax to certain companies…The seller is a former high-ranking tax expert with an in-depth knowledge of tax secrets in the German and European financial industries, and is reported to have negotiated with tax authorities for more than a year over the information, according to the German financial daily Handelsblatt.”
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/nov/03/north-rhine-westphalia-tax-avoidance-usb-data-germany…”
This is why you should always hide your usb stick where the sun don’t shine!
#59 Nora Lenderby
Even if you are a troll.I’m pretty sure you have rabies with all that froth flying around….I do wish you’d go away and spew elsewhere,you sad,sad,man.
You don’t get out much do you! Any one travelling” to “Somolia/Sudan has to be vaccinated for hepatitis A,hepatitis B,typhoid,yellow fever,polio, tetanus-diphtheria,measles-mumps-rubella,cholera,chicken pox, malaria, and even rabies. Many of these diseases are unknown in Europe and the fact that this demographic of people have not been inoculated against,say polio that we eradicated years ago is a health risk. Travel in these countries and then try and donate blood when you get back home,not going to happen. Let’s really dumb it down, Canadian Border Services has a list of restricted products that are not allowed back in the country, why, contamination,we don’t need other countries problems. The only thing worse than being blind is having sight but no vision!!!
Bill Morneau = Bill each Morning
Morneau, Bill = More Bills
Bill More No mercy
Bill More ‘N more
Bill More, eh?
She most certainly did not say negative rates were likely. The misinformation here is stunning. — Garth
Must be within sight of the cliff…people starting to hope for lower rates, which means a bad ass economy, which means job losses…which can lead to forced house sales and so on.
Higher rates, lower costs of housing and a strong economy seems to be what we are aiming for…no?
Hipsters!? Well at least they are not wearing skinny jeans anymore, on to the next urban fade. Please Please don’t bring back 80’s Hair music, fashion or mustaches.
is this our first sports minister who is obese?
Just got back from Moab….one of the coolest places to visit in the USA. DEADSVILLE. We rented two different whole houses with magnificent views of the red rocks and canyons….
Both houses under $200 a night.
The US is not chugging along especially if you take out the taxpayer funded phony war on terror, the 267 injections they force you to get there (Big Pharma) and continual invasion of foreign countries…..
We saw dead town after dead town on our drive down. ZERO traffic except for Seattle (defense and high tech industry) and Salt Lake (religion) areas. 1200 miles to get there.
Take out all that and…..deadsville. Still love the USA though.
I just updated my Vancouver housing charts:
I love what you say and the soundness of your conclusions but you need to work on presentation. Your charts are almost unreadable, they have way too much detail. There is too much text on them and too much data. You should let simple results speak for themselves instead of cramming everything into a single chart.
#125 JamesA on 11.05.15 at 12:13 am
Does anyone want to speculate how we are going to spend/invest our 10 billion dept/stimulus per year?
——
Initiate the “Eliminate jobs program” ™.
Create “the most automated economy in the world” ™.
Pay “robo-dividend” ™ from the profits of the most automated economy to replace income from selling human labor.
Introduce “Zero Tax” ™ on “robo-dividend” ™.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-11-02/china-s-money-exodus
#35 Nora Lenderby
In Los Angeles, my neighbors that “lost” their homes were not sub-prime borrowers. They had good credit but took on too much debt. When houses ceased appreciating, they were unable to refinance an adjustable rate loan and found their equity rapidly declining. Of course, maybe the sub-prime borrowers started the price decline in the first place, but the malaise spread quickly.
#49 gut check
If I sold my house in Los Angeles and bought one to live here in Vancouver, how would I feel if the C$ declines further? Or if the bubble bursts?
The only way Vancouver real estate makes sense to me is if I think of Tulipmania in Holland. Who would ever think of spending a year’s earning on a single bulb? Who would spend 75% of their earnings on a non-liquid asset? Canadians are bewitched by real estate, just as Americans were around 2006.
“Try to start a silicon valley north? Invest in the CS departments at the top 10ish Uni’s and just fund a bunch of small groups for 1-3 years and let them do whatever they want (95% will screw up, but their might be a gem or two)? There is already tons of wasted government tech handouts that go to companies that don’t really do any high tech stuff. So probably a no go.”
Sounds like a disaster. I agree. Not a fan of direct government assistance, even to the IT industry. The focus of the government “should” be to reduce the cost of capital to industry enough that it makes investments and allocates capital on its own. The appointment of a Bay Street banker type tells me that Justin may very well be serious about this, rather than just spraying money around at random projects such as what you suggest above.
The IT sector itself is likely heavily over-invested, but Canadian corporations themselves aren’t aggressive enough users of IT because there’s no risk taking attitude. Business risk taking needs to be incented and rewarded in the Canadian economy. The quicker the hatchet is taken to the CMHC and its housing-bubble inducing policies (which direct capital straight towards the housing sector to the exclusion of other investments), the better. Trudeau is no dummy; they must at least conceptually understand that the housing market is beyond repair on account of oversupply/overcapacity and an expansion of CMHC pumping won’t reverse the past 2 years of price declines seen across Canada.
Re 3 LH
With CAD here, SFHs in 604 and 416 look positively cheap compared to other cosmopolitan cities in the world. Especially for those with wealth or income in USD, GBP, or RMB.
______________________________________
Hi LH, I have GBP and yes houses in 416 do look cheaper in my currency but why would I buy one? They are going down in value as your Cdn $ sinks. Surely I would be better with a house that is going up in value? And why would I want to spend my precious GBP in a provincial town like TO with shocking winters.
if I was buying now it would be a place in the sun and Barcelona, Spain would be top of my agenda. Has everything and only 90 mins by plane from London.
As I have said on this blog a zillion times, get out and see the world, open up your perspective on life.
At the end of the day, if people do not have a job they will “bail” out of their homes and high unsustainable mortgage payments. And quickly so as #26 Victoria Real Estate Update points out.
Recent Payroll Reports show job losses and salary losses in virtually all Provinces and Industry sectors. If that continues, that will be the trigger for Real Estate losing value and quickly.
Higher mortgage interest rates will only exacerbate the sell at any price mentality – but slowly.
Look at the history.
Mortgage rates climb up over and at least 5 years and decrease over and at least 5 years; yet, catastrophic real estate value drops happen quickly, within 2 to 3 years:
-Late 70’s rates were 10% and it took more than 5 years to climb to over 20%.
-It then took rates more than 5 years to fall from 20% to 10% in the early to mid 80’s.
-YET it took only 2 years for RE to lose 20-40% in early 80’s Western Canada.
-Even late 80’s/early 90’s Toronto RE values collapsed by nearly 35% in just 3 years.
It has always been about the capacity to pay and the cash people have on hand – that will tell the truth in the end as to what will happen to RE in Canada, including YVR and 416.
Rates only exacerbate the problem. Recent actual data shows the capacity to pay is dismal with unprecedented debt loads as % of income.
The trigger will not be mortgage rate increases, it will be about jobs and cash on hand.
“The magic number is two hundred thousand. Over that, and Janet gets aroused. Under, all bets are off.”
I would expand on that and say that it depends on a few other factors including:
1. Revisions to prior month’s data
2. Quality of jobs (e.g. sector split and full-time vs part-time)
3. Rate of wage increases (wage inflation)
4. Labour force demographics and participation rate
If all of those data points support economic growth forecasts then you will have an “all clear” to consider a rate rise. The headline number is probably less important to the Fed.
Also wanted to say that the USD has been appreciating on the expectations of a rate rise for while now. I wouldn’t be surprised if it actually sells off a bit (not looking against CAD).
Plus, if the Fed doesn’t move then that would be supportive of a santa rally into the new year :)
So who benefits from higher rates?
The government or people with lots of debt?
Just dont see the up side.
Yeah so your right up she goes.
It’s not all doom and gloom… just do what this guy did:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/mortgage-pay-off-tips-1.3304291
There’s still hope for us, Canada!
a whole buncha new ministers whose first language is French, and JT as well, swore allegiance (whatever that is) to her majesty’s HAIRS and successors
that happined of course cuz they was taught that in English you do pronounce the H at the beginning of a word, they forgets that Heirs (which is for some reason pronounced airs) is an egyptian
so now her majesty’s hairs (and suxessers) got a lot of new allegiancers in this hear ye hear ye Dominion
which raises the question wether or not all that white hair on her majesty’s head, so carefully coiffed, is hairs or not. I myself had one monarkist SCREAM at me that no no no it’s not a wig (not that I care, actually) maybe you do
and a lotta the British royals folks is kinda horse-faced, eh
********************************************
If you don’t know where Owen Sound is, get a map. Owen Sound is the capital of The Other Ontario.
Well, as the new Minister of Defense was being sworn in, suddenly every available ambulance in Owen Sound kept racing to and from the hospital. What a racket! Woo-ee woo-ee woo-ee all over town.
All the old Diefenbaker Legionnaires (for the sake of whom Her Majesty took tea with turbaned men, remember) was havin’ either palpitations of the heart, heart attacks, catatonic fits, frothing at the mouth, rabies, and various hysterical and even psychopathic episodes. Their relatives – who do realize that time does and has passed and that yes it is 2015 believe it or not – are worried. (About the expense. Hospital parking, not to mention gittin buried, is such a ripoff).
To Nora Lenderby and Washed Up Lawyer:
Sheesh, stop fawning over each other and get a room, you two!
(I hear the ballroom at Rideau Hall is free this morning – should be enough space there for your collective grandiloquence and mutual admiration)
#132 chapter 9 on 11.05.15 at 12:49 am
#59 Nora Lenderby
Travel in these countries and then try and donate blood when you get back home,not going to happen.
Ah. troll…you say I don’t get out much…I lived in the UK for more than 6 months after 1980. I am consequently no longer permitted to donate blood* in Canada. It is often said that I am a mad cow, but at least I’m not a frothing hypochondriac.
* Apologies to anyone that got BSE from my donations 1982-1990 :-)
Yeah, we are pooched.
Misery loves company so to all the cowboys, you think Alberta has problems?
The Ontario liberals start the sell-off of Hydro One today. The wicked witch seems hellbent to do as much damage to the province as she can. All the proceeds will be taken and spent in her inner province called Toronto but the long term pain will be shared with the greater province. You think you are paying high hydro rates in Ontario now? what and see what happens when shareholders demand their profits.
Add to that the Ontario Pension Plan costs once implemented … if you think that will ever help you down the road, think again, you are fleeced. That is simply another today tax to pay for today’s mismanaged projects.
““Realtors who only months ago claimed that houses were great investments and prices would make small gains this year, are now faced with telling over 52,000 Calgarians who they encouraged to buy homes with those words, that some of those buyers face the real prospect of a 56% loss in one year.””
Could this open the door to lawsuits?
How many buyers are now shackled with excess debt based on Franken-valuations?
#139 Lea on 11.05.15 at 2:32 am
#35 Nora Lenderby
In Los Angeles, my neighbors that “lost” their homes were not sub-prime borrowers. They had good credit but took on too much debt. When houses ceased appreciating, they were unable to refinance an adjustable rate loan and found their equity rapidly declining. Of course, maybe the sub-prime borrowers started the price decline in the first place, but the malaise spread quickly.
Thanks for the response. Hmm. Probably sub-prime borrowers are a symptom of the last stages of such a bubble. Once susceptible speculators with decent incomes had already been drawn in, the growth of the “market” could only be sustained by bringing in more warm bodies.
I saw some research that said that prices some housing markets had already levelled off up to 18 months before the crash. Can’t find the reference, right now.
The people that ended up with the worst results were probbaly those sub-prime (i.e. poor) borrowers, though. They should have remained as renters:
Black families lost 43 percent of their wealth
@#139 Lea on 11.05.15 at 2:32 am
#49 gut check
If I sold my house in Los Angeles and bought one to live here in Vancouver, how would I feel if the C$ declines further? Or if the bubble bursts?
**************************************
Like I said, you wouldn’t feel it if you bought the house to live in. It would only be felt if you were using the vacant home as a store of wealth, planning to sell it and convert the currency at a later date. In that case the combination of the decline in the CAD as well as depreciation of the original asset would make purchasing a unit here from abroad a losing investment, IMO. But then again there are likely tax implications for the wealthy in other countries that I am unaware of that would make up for the loss in actual $$.
Hello Garth.
Now is your time, unfortunately… You were right all along.
Been reading your blog for years. I don’t comment much. I started when I first moved to Calgary from NS in 2006. Everything was flying high; oil, real estate, etc.
Two short years later, U.S. real estate and the related toxic securities imploded, nearly taking the global economy with them.
But. Oil was still there, real estate was still bonkers in Canada, and so many people were laughing at you.
After a stint away, I’ve returned to Alberta this year, and things are a little different, to understate the case a tad.
It has taken time as you have always said, but markets on many fronts are correcting, and people are in deep in debt and in deep trouble. Underwater.
I for one am grateful that I have paid attention to your very straightforward commentary. Supply. Demand. Historical patterns. Avoid debt, build wealth. Liquidity. Manage risk, and don’t put the cash in the mattress (or a crappy GIC,) and call it “saving.”
Then, as now, I frequently get asked, when are buying a house? When are you buying a car? A walrus? Anything expensive that comes with a huge debt?
The social pressures you have described are very real. And many cave.
Being 44 and debt free, with an (admittedly modest,) well balanced portfolio comprised of broad market ETFs with rock bottom fees, makes me feel like the one eyed man in the land of the blind.
Thanks again. Unfortunately, in many cases, one can’t save a grown man from himself.
‘ Bill has a net worth north of $30 million and last year earned $1.07 million running the HR business his dad founded and passed along.’
So our new finance minister is not only a member of the 1% – at least in Canada – but he inherited all his wealth from Daddy, just like his boss and his boss’ father. And this guy is gonna look out for the middle class? He never had to do anything like get a job or anything like that, or make a mortgage payment rather than buy groceries, or sweat when the car breaks down, again. This won’t end well.
“Bill Morneau” anagrams into: Liberal Um No
Luma Loco
Not quite. Inherited a smallish operation grew it big time. Did bear his name though.
Most are missing the point. his 30m is lunch money to his wife’s billionaire family
Now that the euphoria from yesterdays photo op has settled and we now can see the faces of those who will either keep us afloat or sink us I have to ask why the name changes?
You can put lipstick on a pig it’s still a pig!
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberals-cabinet-names-1.3304561
Reminds of an ex premier’s (M.H.) quote when he said something like: Get those $#@% natives out of the park.
That’s us now, btw.
Remember what I said…the new religion being pushed is Environmentalism. Worship our new gods…or else. Their word is law:
http://www.thestar.com/news/2015/11/05/environmental-groups-hope-to-nearly-double-size-of-the-greenbelt.html
“Greenbelt, meet “Bluebelt.”
That’s the vision of a collection of environmental groups that wants to almost double the size of the protected band of land around the Golden Horseshoe to include water systems such as the Oro Moraine and the Humber River headwaters.
The proposal calls for 1.5 million acres to be added to the 1.8 million-acre Greenbelt — already the biggest of its kind in the world — as the Liberal government continues a review of the protected zone that was mandated upon its creation 10 years ago.”
We linked up to a internet feed yesterday with some other couples from Canada to see the swearing in spectacle. One of the wives commented, “Oh they are so cute, and young, look at them what a lovely family, we are so lucky” At that point I had to open my mouth and say why are we so lucky? Justine Trudeau’s family has nothing to do with how well he will run the country. What is important is how he can handle the economy, finances, taxation, jobs, investment in Canada and exports. On top of that how he can defend the country from terrorism. I got the deer in the headlights look from her, then I got the oh no you didn’t look from my wife. Needless to say we are all good friends but if the mentality of the average Canadian is “look how cute he is and his family, then we are screwed! Anyway 84 degrees and sunny today. Going out for a afternoon boat ride with friends. Oh and by the way nobody in the Bahamas gives a shit about Canada or our politics!
“Telus to cut 1,500 jobs but hike dividend 10%”
Telus Corp. says it’s planning to reduce its workforce by 1,500 positions in an effort to cut annual costs by up to $125 million…
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/telus-to-cut-1-500-jobs-but-hike-dividend-10-1.3305210
Why?
Anyway 84 degrees and sunny today. Going out for a afternoon boat ride with friends.
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nice – same here in van, but a touch cooler. less coral.
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i’m going to bang the table a bit here – BUY OIL (etfs) if you haven’t yet.
i was at general fusion yesterday, still very promising but progress is slow. thankfully there is plenty of oil around to carry us 100yrs to fusion.
US weekly jobless claims total 276,000 vs 262,000 estimate
New U.S. applications for unemployment benefits last week recorded their largest increase in eight months, but remained at levels consistent with a fairly healthy labor market.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 16,000 to a seasonally adjusted 276,000 for the week ended Oct. 31, the Labor Department said on Thursday. It was the largest weekly gain since late February.
Claims had hovered near 42-year lows for much of October.
The prior week’s claims were unrevised. It was the 35th straight week that claims were below the 300,000 threshold, which is normally associated with a strong jobs market.
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this one points to no hike.
#108 Praireboy43 on 11.04.15 at 10:58 pm
Is there a stat for Finance Minster life Expectancy? Seems like a stressful job. Unless you are Brian Wilson. ” lying in Bed like Brian Wilson did”.
================================
This reference is of Brian Wilson of The Beach Boys, who was lying in bed because he was a manic depressive.
See you can always learn new things at The Greater Fool
#155 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.05.15 at 10:14 am
Now that the euphoria from yesterdays photo op has settled and we now can see the faces of those who will either keep us afloat or sink us I have to ask why the name changes?
You can put lipstick on a pig it’s still a pig!
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberals-cabinet-names-1.3304561
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ALBERTA IS FINISHED
Minister of Climate Change!
And the Minister of Science in a climatology professor.
Dion in charge of foreign affairs
Massive carbon tax on the way….off to paris they go.. where do I sign they ask?
New investment in oils sands are toast.
Hey anyone want to buy my house? Dirt cheap Greenberta formerly known as Oilberta
#157 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.05.15 at 10:24 am
We linked up to a internet feed yesterday with some other couples from Canada to see the swearing in spectacle. One of the wives commented, “Oh they are so cute, and young, look at them what a lovely family, we are so lucky” At that point I had to open my mouth and say why are we so lucky? Justine Trudeau’s family has nothing to do with how well he will run the country. What is important is how he can handle the economy, finances, taxation, jobs, investment in Canada and exports. On top of that how he can defend the country from terrorism. I got the deer in the headlights look from her, then I got the oh no you didn’t look from my wife. Needless to say we are all good friends but if the mentality of the average Canadian is “look how cute he is and his family, then we are screwed! Anyway 84 degrees and sunny today. Going out for a afternoon boat ride with friends. Oh and by the way nobody in the Bahamas gives a shit about Canada or our politics!
——————–
Fair to say nobody in Canada no one gives a shit about politics in the Bahamas as well, n’est pas?
Renewed my mortgage last month. Presented with 2.5% for 2 year variable or 2.6% variable for 5 years or fixed 2.5% for 5 years. The rate will not drop further. Given that Canadian mortgages are variable(most renew every 5 years) you arent losing by locking in on fixed, you can change your mind in 5 years.
So it is outrage huh that some housing in Calgary is losing value? Newsflash: ALL housing in Calgary is a ripoff. The mountains, clean air, clean water are nice, sure. The traffic is horrible and the revenue collecting cops are everywhere. Some police are reasonable, but violence in Calgary is everywhere. When possible I do not drive anywhere because between too slow speed limits and tailgaters it is a hassle.
As far as waiting for housing to drop in Calgary, that may happen but likely will rebound because things happen very slowly here. Look at the government. It took 40 years for the voters to get a clue and throw out the conservative government.
Likely now the Liberal government will do good things, which includes taxing those that make $200K+ and legalize marijuana.
Those people in Calgary out in Bearspaw that are trying to sell houses in the $1 mill+ range, good luck. The commute and the housing cost? You cant justify a house on a blank slot of land with a big commute to downtown.
Check article at Market Watch
Overall, the implications for a standard balanced portfolio are grim.
A balanced portfolio (roughly half in stocks and half in bonds) should return around 3.5% for the next decade. Adjusted for inflation or in “real” terms, a balanced portfolio will return 1.5%, barely increasing purchasing power.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/john-bogle-says-you-wont-make-much-money-from-stocks-2015-11-05?dist=lcountdown
Meaningless for a balanced, globally-diversified investor. Bogle is talking about US-only assets, no preferreds, no REITs, no varied fixed income. — Garth
#158 Sonny on 11.05.15 at 10:27 am
“Telus to cut 1,500 jobs but hike dividend 10%”
———————————————————
Ah yeah, good old Telus. They phone me almost every night at dinnertime even though I have requested to be taken off their call list many times. But try and phone them and actually talk to someone that breathes … not so easy. Somebody should invent an App that sends voltage down a phone line … if you know what I mean …
#31 BS on 11.04.15 at 7:37 pm
Justin Trudeau declares a war on the 1% during the election and then puts a guy who is part of the top 1/10th of 1% (both in net worth and income) in charge of the war. Think there my be a few loop holes coming in the new tax the rich policies? Too funny.
____________________________________________
Yep, and also another inexperienced rookie politician.
In fact – 18 out of 30 of Trudeux’s ministers are in parliament for the first time ever.
I’m thinking we will indeed be getting some real change, real soon. It’s now a collection of ex-civil servants, activists, and social workers – as well as a few seemingly unemployed individuals running the country.
Dam I’m glad to be over 40!
Unfortunately, some of my longstanding morals may be cast aside depending on what this new crew decides to do. If the plan is to pound us all into an even deeper hole for some environmental of social justice concerns – than I can not be held accountable…
@ Maxx
“Could this open the door to lawsuits?
How many buyers are now shackled with excess debt based on Franken-valuations?”
Why lawsuits? Caveat Emptor.
Why should anyone put their faith and trust in a salesperson working for commissions.
@Londoner
Might I add:
5. Federal election Nov 2016.
Cheers
Remember when the Queen of England invited some men wearing turbans to tea, to teach certain Royal Canadian Legionnaires a lesson in civility? Remember that? No? Well, you should.
I don’t think the lesson took.
Because it was woo-ee woo-ee woo-ee all over Owen Sound on Wednesday, ambulances all over the place. Taking old Diefenbaker fans to the hospital.
When the new Minister of Defense stepped up to take the oath, these old geezers got heart attacks, catatonic fits, psychotic episodes, and rabies.
(The same thing happen when Dief lost the flag debate, but not as bad as now. Then it was jest a whole lotta forners stealing our flag, now it’s perverts wreckin’ everything.)
[If you don’t know where Owen Sound is, get a map. It’s the capital of The Other (Blue) Ontario.]
Bad enough that the Premier of Ontario “aint a real woman”, eh, and bad enough that we got “another one from Quabeck”, and then a lotta them new Frenchy ministers swore allegiance to “her hairs and successors.”
(Justin also said hairs instead of heirs) (can’t even speak English proper)
But when the Minister of Defense showed up, it was just too much. Boom! They all freaked out. Many died on the way to hospital.
This is not all bad news, especially for the surviving younger relatives; hospital parking is so expensive and cash is scarcer than hen’s teeth here in The Other (Blue) Ontario.
Truth to tell – some folks think the capital of The Other (Blue) Ontario is Meaford, but even I don’t know where Meaford is. (I don’t know where Moose Jaw is either.) (Anybody know where this Syria place is?) (Mars?)
In the good old days our honest and hard-workin’ farmers would write “McDonald & Sons” on the barn. What about Susan and Evelyn? “Well, Susie wants to go to Teachers Collidge in Tronna, and Effie wants to apply to the Owen Sound School of Nursing, but I think they’ll jest git married and have babies. Chuckle chuckle.”
#109 Nora Lendervy: Ottawa is full of vapid, giggly fans gasping for a glimpse of the Messiah. And that’s just the press corps.
_________________
Well said. I could not believe the star treatment on the CBC yesterday.
Anyhow, waiting to hear from the new gvt how they inherited larger problems than they anticipated and how the conservatives misled the poor Canadian people, and now they have their hands tied, and will have to rethink how they do things. Wait for it in the new budget.
#73 Willy2
Couldn’t agree more. Rates can’t rise (in any significant way) or the house of debt cards all the banks are sitting on collapse, and that is being avoided at all costs. Threats to raise are so old. QE4 is their only card.
Negative interest rates are already in Europe. The Swiss will charge you to invest in them! Insanity, but reality.
The U.S. economy has been on borrowed time for many years. Things have only gotten worse since 2008 because the reset was not allowed to happen. Banks have about twice the debt now than they had then, and raising the rate would unwind it all.
have had v good svc with their isp side since the 90’s – tech guys there 24/7
dumped the phone for voip years ago so don’t know on that side.
mobility very good too.
nobody there ever calls me. mabe its the voip number.
i have so much fun with unsolicited callers they never call back ie “he’s dead/in jail/been looking for you etc.” or launch into the ultra hard line ;jesus saves; speech
forgot to add the telus comment from panhead
According to this article the value of outstanding reverse mortgages will double in 2015. From $200M to $405M.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/retirement/retire-housing/reverse-mortgages-gain-popularity-as-canadians-turn-to-their-homes-for-cash/article27111238/
Re 3 LH
”With CAD here, SFHs in 604 and 416 look positively cheap compared to other cosmopolitan cities in the world. Especially for those with wealth or income in USD, GBP, or RMB.”
Why on earth would anyone with USD’s buy a SFH in Canada when they can buy something in their own country for a quarter of the price…? Americans are not stupid. They learned their lesson in 05/06. We havn’t yet.
#170 Pre-Retiree on 11.05.15 at 1:13 pm
#109 Nora Lendervy: Ottawa is full of vapid, giggly fans gasping for a glimpse of the Messiah. And that’s just the press corps.
_________________
Well said. I could not believe the star treatment on the CBC yesterday.
Anyhow, waiting to hear from the new gvt how they inherited larger problems than they anticipated and how the conservatives misled the poor Canadian people, and now they have their hands tied, and will have to rethink how they do things. Wait for it in the new budget.
___________________________________________
The CBC has effectively been reduced to a collection of sweaty degenerates afflicted with advanced persistent genital arousal disorder. Ever since JT started rising in the polls they’ve needed a full time squeegee squad to keep the halls safely traversable during work hours.
They’re just off-the-deep-end partisan, gushing over “cool”, and “badass” new Ministers. You’d need hip waders and a good raincoat to get into CBC headquarters without drowning right now.
I tried to get thru the news today on the CBC, but I had to ejac… I meant eject from the website just looking at the photos for the headlines.
““The municipality just lost $20,000 a year in property taxes and is now faced with thousands of potential challenges to assessments.”
They will just freeze the taxes assessments. Quebec government did that in the 90’s for Montreal.
Or they can just double the taxation rate.
#164 Holy Crap Wheres the Pot on 11.05.15 at 11:07 am
#157 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.05.15 at 10:24 am
We linked up to a internet feed yesterday with some other couples from Canada to see the swearing in spectacle. One of the wives commented, “Oh they are so cute, and young, look at them what a lovely family, we are so lucky” At that point I had to open my mouth and say why are we so lucky? Justine Trudeau’s family has nothing to do with how well he will run the country. What is important is how he can handle the economy, finances, taxation, jobs, investment in Canada and exports. On top of that how he can defend the country from terrorism. I got the deer in the headlights look from her, then I got the oh no you didn’t look from my wife. Needless to say we are all good friends but if the mentality of the average Canadian is “look how cute he is and his family, then we are screwed! Anyway 84 degrees and sunny today. Going out for a afternoon boat ride with friends. Oh and by the way nobody in the Bahamas gives a shit about Canada or our politics!
——————–
Fair to say nobody in Canada no one gives a shit about politics in the Bahamas as well, n’est pas?
____________________________________________
Well I have to agree there but like I said Nobody gives a shit about Canadian politics. Just before we caught a commuter flight from Miami to the Bahamas the same old same could be said. The USA doesn’t even know we exist south of the Mason Dixon Line. Lady at the airport heard us talking about the new government and said I didn’t know you had elected politicians? Duh? She was one of those that though the Queen ran everything. Duh again.
Oh goody my buddy (retired oil exec) just told me he still gets all sorts of inside poop on oil. Apparently Canada has at least 165 billion barrels of oil reserve that we know about. By the way the oil companies have stopped looking for new oil. Hmm at the current rate of world consumption we should good for 4.85 years if we sold it all. Apparently the world has about 1.5 Trillion barrels left. Lets see the Saudis should be broke in 5 years oh shit, that’s not going to work.
D-day 28 days and counting.
http://www.parl.gc.ca/housechamberbusiness/chambercalendar.aspx?Language=E
Why would Bill Morneau quit his $1M job running his company to be an MP paying a quarter of that?
Do you know if he was given the job before the election (if elected, he gets it)?
Bwahahahahahahahahaahahaaaa….NP this am ran a story comparing Trudy to Ronald Reagan Bwaahahahahahahaaaa
http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/kelly-mcparland-trudeau-appoints-a-cabinet-of-people-more-qualified-than-he-is
The international press has been consistently calling out Trudy as ‘not the brightest guy in the room’….this was a protest vote brought on by years of CBC Hate Harper propaganda….Joesph Goebbels style.
The Hate Harper media has been paying publicists for placement of articles in local and international media to try and push Trudy as ‘the sexy alternative’…and a an ‘agent of real change’.
BTW…didn’t the Libs rip the ‘hope and change…and middle class meme from the Obama clods in the US?
How stupid can Canadians be? Think groceries are expensive now….the price of everything is going up by the day…so are your taxes….good luck boneheads.
Trudy could have gone into any bar on Saturday night at closing time and picked a cabinet “More qualified than he is”.
Oh Lord….the Canadian dollar is the Typhoid Mary of the global FX universe since the election. What are the media trying to sway us to do now…fall asleep?
On why the free market won’t develop new forms of energy fast enough:
bill gates interview
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/11/we-need-an-energy-miracle/407881/
Canada is in for a world of hurt. I just don’t see any upside for this country anywhere.
We are too expensive on every level. Our cost of living is too high, our labor costs are too high and the cost of our government and services are too high.
The pain will start come and soon.
Who cares when foreign millionaires buy RE in the 604 but don’t live there or don’t invest in businesses there. When the RE sells, the transaction is done. Short lived.
On top of that, the native local population can no longer afford to live and work there.
But at least our PM has a nice face.
The CFPB Takes Action Against Mortgage Insurers to End Kickbacks to Lenders
Four Companies to Pay $15.4 Million in Penalties
http://www.consumerfinance.gov/newsroom/the-cfpb-takes-action-against-mortgage-insurers-to-end-kickbacks-to-lenders/
..”The CFPB alleges that four mortgage insurance companies violated federal consumer financial law by engaging in widespread kickback arrangements with lenders across the country. The CFPB believes the mortgage insurers named in today’s enforcement actions provided kickbacks to mortgage lenders by purchasing captive reinsurance that was essentially worthless but was designed to make a profit for the lenders.”
..”The kickbacks at issue in today’s actions were paid to the lenders through “captive reinsurance arrangements.” “Reinsurance” is simply insurance for insurance companies. Many insurance companies purchase reinsurance in order to cover their own risk of unexpectedly high losses. When a mortgage lender sets up a subsidiary company to provide reinsurance to the mortgage insurers, it becomes a “captive” arrangement. It is “captive” because the lender both originates the loan and, through its own subsidiary, provides the reinsurance.
The four companies named in today’s actions are Genworth Mortgage Insurance Corporation, United Guaranty Corporation, Radian Guaranty Inc., and Mortgage Guaranty Insurance Corporation. In exchange for kickbacks, these mortgage insurers received lucrative business referrals from lenders. These types of kickbacks were a common practice in the years leading up to the financial crisis. These four companies were key players during that time.
#129-FrankenR
“Wouldn’t it make sense to buy Canadian equities on margin….as the currency plummets, settle up with your USD that you have been hoarding for years….or of course run a currency hedge if you have new USD stockpile”
Sure..as long a contract short the $C you can afford is the way to go….the government is desperate to slow the outflow by throwing cash at the problem to regulate the bleeding but the writings on the wall…as taxpayers we’ll all lose billions on the falling $C….might as well get on the right side of the trade.
Canada is dead money….perhaps until another industrial cycle hits somewhere in the world…with China off the table….we might have to wait a decade or longer for India to industrialize.
Buy US Equities with USD….Canadian equities have no where to go but down vis a vis the $C value vs all other currencies….and there’s no floor in sight. Bottom line…stay out of Canada. At least with the US you have a chance at capital gains with small dividends.
This is another reason there will be no rate increase in Canada….zero chance of that for a decade or more….the new Liberal government has to feed the short sellers to keep the currency from complete collapse.
Published on Oct 10, 2012
huh? The pyramids were built by aliens?
Dr Ben Carson 1998 graduation key note speaker..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FrqShRhxJBM
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kristinakillgrove/2015/11/05/archaeologists-to-ben-carson-ancient-egyptians-wrote-down-why-the-pyramids-were-built/
Rental market ain’t going anywhere.
Had a raise lately? Me neither.
MF
That just tells me you do NOT fallow Garth’s advice.
I have and am doing well.
I am not in the “1%” but do not have to be. I have learned to be happy with what I do have.
I am retired with enough.
When will you “money grubbers” ever have “enough”. My guess is never. And that is why you will never know happiness.
Oh. And I have a great wife too.
A friend on Facebook just posted a picture of an article from a Swedish business magazine, citing Vancouver’s 20.9% real estate rise as the ‘highest, anywhere in the world’!
And let me be the first to welcome the Hot Swedish Money to Vancouver: your gummy candies, gooey meatballs, and incomprehensibly – named furnishings will be a welcome addition to the buffet of intolerance that masquerades as civility in Vancouver, right alongside the Dim-sum and Iranian caviar.
Re: #186 Welcome to your funeral Canada on 11.05.15 at 4:15 pm
The big problem with that is just like a professional poker tournament the good players will let you win the small pots and break you in two for the big one. The FED and the bankers are the house and they let the suckers win the small pots only to bust them all when it’s time for the house to unload.
#151 Bluenose Cowboy
Good on you. You are on the right track. Keep ignoring the social pressure around you and you will do very well. Congrats.
“We lust after stuff that’s inflated and rising, while we shun things that are falling and unwanted – even though we loved them previously when they cost more.”
Garth,
Would you consider buying American stocks as buying low, while selling commodities as a good thing to shun?
#168
“Unfortunately, some of my longstanding morals may be cast aside depending on what this new crew decides to do. If the plan is to pound us all into an even deeper hole for some environmental of social justice concerns – than I can not be held accountable…”
Then, not than.
Also, are you threatening violence upon the government? You may be in violation recent terrorism laws. Really.
Another uneducated internet tough-guy that’s, presumably, right-wing. What a shock on Garth’s comment section.
“Bill [Morneau] has a net worth north of $30 million and last year earned $1.07 million running the HR business his dad founded and passed along.”
Garth, isn’t he an example of the “successful” people you constantly moan are being “milked” by governments of all stripes? The guy inherited a multi-million dollar business from Daddy. Why does that make him “successful” or an “entrepreneur” (like Pops was) or anything other than a rich guy who can easily afford another few grand in taxes here and there?
Read his bio. Compare it to yours. Then criticize. — Garth
#188 Roial1 on 11.05.15 at 4:40 pm
I don’t get your post.
Who said I am a money grubber?
Who said I need money to be happy?
Garth has gone on and on about how rents are tied to incomes. My statement was in reference to stagnant incomes. Therefore rents can’t rise too much. Get it?
You missed the point.
Congrats on your wife though (serious). Hard to find a good one for many guys, especially those in your age bracket.
MF
The Trudeau win, and the composition of his cabinet (“it looks like Canada”, “because it’s 2015”) feels to me like the Pearson win in the great flag debate.
The economy played second fiddle to the cultural issue: Harper’s gross misreading of Canadian character.
The plain nasty reaction on this blog reminds me of the bitter reaction by champions of the old flag.
As the Canadian economy deteriorates more, it’s likely Trudeau will turn out to be a “Teflon” PM; most will blame corporate greed and malfeasance, not JT or his gov’t. Au contraire, most will see JT&Co as victims of “vested interests”.
As Harper will most likely sit next to the new Cons leader in the first row of the opposition benches – blame for whatever (including the time of day) will still fall on him; even some Cons fingers will slyly be pointed in his direction.
The Libs have successfully established a highly popular identity. With a view to drama per se, I think the caniption fits within the post-Harper Con party . . . are actually more interesting than Lib doings.
This blog, generally tone-deaf to sexism, homophobia and stupidly unsympathetic to the aspirations of young adults (recall Poloz’s mindboggling “Why don’t they work for free for a year”) risks irrelevance, GT’s good intentions and great advice notwithstanding.
Those of you who lost this election will gain nothing with silly anti-JT insults, you have no-one to blame but yourselves (and poor old Harper).
#199
So believing that people who make a mil a year should pays somewhat higher taxes than they do is “criticizing” them? Geez, you rich geezers have the thinnest skin!
do not post
Total Single Family Home Sales
. . January through October. . . .
. . . . . Greater Victoria. . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2007…*****************
2015…**
———————————————–
. . . . . . -5%. . . . . . . . . . 0%
(source: Victoria’s board)