Ted the blog dog lost his job in Calgary (“along with many others”) two months ago but his wife, mercifully, is still employed in the now-anorexic oil & gas biz. So, he was driving her to work Tuesday morning when he heard an angel. Well, that might be misleading. Actually it was me.
“Turning the corner onto 6th avenue SW to swing west and to organize my household grocery run, my new position since being cast off, I heard a gentle voice on CBC radio opine on how much house prices have actually dropped and explaining how CREB fashions its uber optimistic figures so as not to spook the rubes with money burning a hole in their pockets and advising caution and realism when looking at buying or selling the family pile,” he says. “I thought, at long last here is someone telling it like it is in Calgary and Lo! it is my daily breath of snarky common sense Garth.
“Perhaps you are still a lone voice in the wilderness but I wish you could do a weekly local counterpoint to the property pimps who flood the airwaves and pages of the local rags to gull the folks into being the envy of their peers by buying their bubblicious dream property in lovely, luxurious Pepperidge Farms, Saddlesore or elegant Spiffington Estates (formerly farmer Brown’s duck slough halfway to Lethbridge. ) Thanks. I hope it did gave a few listeners pause and made some realturds sputter with indignation.”
It did. I heard from a few, after the radio guys tracked me down for a follow on the ‘Pooched in Priddis’ blog published here two days ago. You may remember I featured two houses in the luxury exurb of Cowtown which were recently auctioned, selling for a 60% discount to appraised values. This, I suggested, might be a harbinger of what Calgarians can expect down the road as oil stays stuck in the $40 range, thousands more people are punted from their downtown office cubicles, and the Dippers up in Edmonton pursue their tax-and-spend agenda.
Here’s a key question: how can properties go to auction – which is as pure a market indicator as you can get – and sell for 60% less than expected, while local realtors claim average prices are off just 6%? Huh?
Even that 6% decline in October has shocked the city, since it’s the worst in a generation when combined with a 33% sales plunge and a jump in listings of almost 20%. But when absolutely everybody in town knows three other people who have lost their jobs, or are living in fear of it, how can inflated house prices not reflect street reality?
Remember that the results of those auctions (offered for $3.9 million, sold for $1.5 million) are excluded from Calgary Real Estate Board stats, because they’re not MLS listings. Ditto for many sales by builders to the buyers of new houses. Or private sales which are not listed on Realtor.ca. The numbers are further diddled when you consider the final selling price of a property is reported as a percentage of the last listing value – not the original asking price. Thus a property can be reduced in price several times, and the board ignores the decline. Its monthly package therefore is not an accurate reflection of the steady erosion of the market, which is likely by design. As posters here have reported to us, if you want to move your house in Calgary, you’d better be ready to eat at least 15%.
Further, the local board says prices have now declined two months in a row. Others, like housing analyst Ross Kay, say the air’s been coming out now for nine consecutive months, since last February. And it may be just starting.
Remember, oil is Canada’s big export. Commodity prices are at a 16-year low. And it’s all about to get worse – on December 16th.
Over the last few days bond yields have spiked like an excited gland, and traders are giving 50% odds to an interest rate increase next month by the Fed. That’s a big deal, since two weeks ago the odds were less than 30%. A survey of economists by Bloomberg this week found six in ten of them are thinking rates will soon pop. And we’ll probably know more on Wednesday when Janet Yellen does her thing in front of a Congressional panel.
The Fed has messed with everyone’s head now for months, suggesting rates will rise, only to snatch it back at the last minute. The expected lift-off day in September was nuked by turmoil in China, and the October window was shut by a weaker jobs report. But all that fear has melted away, thanks partly to hot car sales numbers (2015 may be the best year ever), a steamy US real estate market (prices ahead in 20 markets), better-than-expected corporate earnings and a big bump in consumer confidence.
There’s no guarantee the Fed will move, of course, but it seems likely. And here’s what it means:
- There won’t be one hike. Rather this will be the first in a series – as has always been the case.
- Rates should grow by about 1% a year for the next two.
- The bond market will swell in sympathy and since that’s where mortgages are funded, fixed-term rates will also jump.
- The Fed move will strengthen the US dollar.
- It will weaken commodities, which are priced in US$ – bad news for Canada.
- The loonie will also weaken against the greenback. A Bay Street guy who manages billions told me today he’s planning for a 70-cent dollar.
- And, in Calgary, you know what happens next. Stay tuned.
225 comments ↓
The real TurnerNation is furrst? Imposter got skunked.
No hike. Fed has zero credibility. All bluff.
And the stock market will do what? Should we go to cash before the December meeting? 40% in bonds will drop which leaves 60% in equities that better go up right?
Anybody?
Back to worrying I guess.
Already priced in. — Garth
Garth…you really can’t be serious? You are calling interest rates 2% higher than today two years from now? Keep in mind that with the Q3 GDP report, this year will be the 10th year in a row that the US has experienced a GDP growth rate less than 3%. Without growth, and the $19 Trillion dollar government debt, it is virtually impossible for the Fed to embark on a series of rates hikes. I thought that you had a little more moxy than to suggest something so moronic. Your fixation on Canadian housing prices (also an issue) is obscuring any common sense that you might have had when it came to macro-economics.
been waiting for interest rates to rise since 2006…
“The numbers are further diddled when you consider the final selling price of a property is reported as a percentage of the last listing value – not the original asking price.”
If that’s the case, how is this allowed to happen? Are they presented as prices as a percentage of last listing? Otherwise, how can it not be considered fraudulent?
…And if the usual pattern is followed gold will also drop.
Sing it with me folks
Oil Canada our home and native land
True tar sands love/hate in all thy sons command
With shuttered rigs we see thee die
The true north gone for me
From tar and sand, Oh canada
We stand in debt indeed
“And, in Calgary, you know what happens next.”
And what’s next? Jobs have already been slashed, house prices are also dropping.
good snark garth
I was looking at XIU today. It’s only about 2 bucks off the highs (~10%). I didn’t look any closer into the index constituents, may be I misunderstand something. Given the commodities situation and the loaded spring of housing, isn’t there a lot of potential downside to buying XIU at this time?
People love to hate the bearer of bad new. I think you better shave before going to cowtown Garth. They may have a date at sundown with you on main street.
Saskatoon appears just as bad. Too many new builds sitting on the market, everything else moving very slowly. Friend at work has been trying to sell her 4 year old mini-mansion for 8 months with 2 price reductions, and just received her second offer on the place- for 60K under asking.
A bit of a shocker for her, and I sympathized… but thought to myself that offer might not look bad in 6 more months.
Prices could fall 60% in major markets like Toronto, Vancouver, Calgary, Kelowna and they’d still be overpriced.
Seriously, a $3.9 million dollar house selling for $1.5 million is still not a bargain for the average middle-class Canadian.
Even a $1 million house selling for $400k is not a bargain when average incomes are $40k/yr.
A long way to come back down to reality.
One need look no further than the University of U-Haul.
Four years ago, a 15-foot U-Haul rental from Ontario to Alberta cost 3 times that of a rental from Alberta to Ontario.
Next year, to book the same rental a week after New Years, now costs $100 more going east than it does going west.
Expect to see this ship lean a little more from port to starboard as the year unfolds.
Is Canada a world leader in mortgage fraud?
There’s certainly enough of it happening in our country and apparently not much is being done about it. The problem is growing fast.
You always hear about how Canada is one of those countries that is supposed to set the standard for other countries to measure up to.
Is Canada sending a message to other less fortunate countries that allowing mortgage fraud to happen is a good idea and safe for the economy?
We’ve all had to listen to how Canada’s mortgage lending has been conservative and safer than in other courtiers and that it is, therefore, different in Canada.
The fact of the matter is that mortgage lending in Canada hasn’t been conservative or safe at all.
Canada has:
•. A growing problem with mortgage fraud (liar loans).
•. Some of the laxest mortgage lending standards in the world. For example, the minimum down payment here is 5%. In most areas of the US it’s 20%.
•. SUBPRIME LOANS – tons of new mortgages in Canada are subprime (insured by CMHC), given to applicants with no money and questionable credit. What’s worse is that these dangerous loans are being handed out like candy AT BUBBLE LEVEL HOUSE PRICES (much higher prices than in the US at the peak of its price run-up in 2006).
The list could go on.
Allowing mortgage fraud and the rest of these dangerous mortgage lending practices to continue may inflate Canada’s housing bubble more but it will definitely guarantee a deeper and probably faster price correction.
Holding off the deflation of a national housing bubble has been attempted by many other countries, however, this has always ended in failure.
Housing bubbles always end with a deep (not slow) housing price correction – a deep, economy-chilling price correction that has a multi-year negative impact on wages, jobs and household finances of families.
Once a housing bubble has been allowed to inflate in a country, the above series of events can’t be avoided, no matter how much cheating is allowed to happen or how much stimulus is thrown at the housing market.
There is no chance that it will be different in Canada.
I wager one big bird outfit for a dog that rates fall again before rising.
The loonie will also weaken against the greenback. A Bay Street guy who manages billions told me today he’s planning for a 70-cent dollar.
I am planning for 45. In the next 3-5 years,
Garth, If Oil is at a 16 year low, and most people say to buy low and sell high, why should we be selling oil? Should we not be buying? Or is it seriously different this time?
housing down by 60% …
loonie down to .45 cents …
wow … it’s the Gloom & Doom blog
There goes another couple hundred jobs
http://globalnews.ca/news/1761346/up-to-250-workers-at-grande-cache-coal-mine-face-layoffs/
Even a $1 million house selling for $400k is not a bargain when average incomes are $40k/yr.
This is entitlement. Even in the early 90’s when home values were more ‘normal’, Vancouver west side was $250K (against a national average of 90K). You’ll never buy a Vancouver house with an average income. Make more money.
took flight WG681 at 8am from Toronto to Calgary this morning. Only 45 people on board. That’s gotta tell you something.
The rising rates will be a massive whammy to various levels of government. Trudeau will blow the budget when borrowing costs rise. Promises about to be broken. Likewise in the U.S. Ditto for Alberta.
Not just mortgage/LOC carriers will be crying, but so will all the voters who will get old waiting for the goodies the Libs and NDP promised in the Fed and AB elections.
Oh well. Time to scrape the bottom of the sailboat and put her away for winter. Albertans will be scraping bottom this winter too. If they’re lucky. If not thiws could leave a mark felt all over the country.
In the blog picture you can see a street sign, so I Google mapped Maywick View Lane, turns out to be in Lexington, KY. When you zoom in you can see a Wendy’s even has a similar looking ad sign on the corner.
http://www.cbc.ca/player/Radio/Local+Shows/Alberta/Calgary+Eyeopener/ID/2678271616/
The USA is fighting off deflation with a stick , without significant wage growth rates are going nowhere. The October hold off already demonstrates the fed is beholden to the IMF, rates go nowhere. And look to Qe4. Who cares what your bay st buddy says I thought you don’t use anecdotes….
….and rate reset preferreds will continue to rise from the depths!
Hey Garth
They have been saying higher interest for years.
BofC had been saying of higher interest rates when Carney was higher only to lower it this year.
Feds have been talking about raising rate but they get cold feet and don’t pull the trigger. This will continue.
If there is a rate hike by the Fed, it will one and done.
This will have no impact on the Housing Market here.
Higher rates will be met with looser Mortgage rules here. You can count on this.
not only were your dulcet tones heard on the morning program…every news break, 30 mins apart, we were reminded of your predictions. the news reporter even mentioned your use of the Priddis situation.
From the Calgary Real Estate Board website:
“When a handful of men met in the Albertan board room on January 26, 1943, they had simple enough aims. They wanted to bring respectability to their industry, serve their customers in an ethical manner and….”
Seeking respectability for 24 fewer years than you know who….
Maybe a shakeup at the top and a draft choice or two will help.
Yes, I live in Alberta and the SHHTF and is getting worse every Friday when more people are given their pink slips.
I don’t hear denial anymore just silence until another bunch announce they just got axed. Not pretty to watch. I take no joy in other people’s pain.
Yes. I lived through the 20% mortgage rates in the 80’s. People then were of the opinion rates would never go down, exactly the same as today where many can’t see rates ever going up. Recency. It can kill ya.
The timeline of the rates staying high or staying low is irrelevant. How people play the times is very very relevant. Amazing how people can lose their shirts at both times.
It’s like Socrates said, “I can’t teach anyone anything, I only hope to get them to think”.
I try to speak nothing but the truth when I post, and though you may not agree with me, I hope you can do the same, just think.
Disgusted at yesterday’s HAM comments.
Housing is a privilege ! It so that way around the world. We are now just joining the global community so accept it. Many families overseas have substandard housing and this is the norm worldwide. Choices made affect your future. I own on the Westside knowing this would happen in the future.
Accept it.
More years, not fewer.
#19 Buy Low Sell High
New technologies are going to kill oil. It’s a two pronged approach:
On the one hand, new technologies are making it possible to extract oil from just about everywhere on the planet (not just in Alberta, like Canadians seem to think). This will mean that supply will remain plentiful for the foreseeable future.
On the other hand, new technologies are both dramatically reducing fuel consumption and making alternative sources of energy viable. This will decrease demand for oil. Another x-factor decreasing demand is general global economic malaise and geopolitical turmoil in Africa, the middle east, and Europe. Refugees don’t drive much.
Some people say that oil will have one more “good run” before it’s put to bed forever. I’m not so sure.
So yes, you can gamble that oil will shoot up again someday. Or you can go to the casino and put it all on black… same effect, but much quicker results.
Calgary is officially “off the charts” and the nutbars around here just don’t get it…
About a year ago, right at the peak in Calgary, three houses around the corner sold to a developer, hoping to make a killing on the ever rising market. He managed to sell and move the houses before stalling out on the projects. Today, he re-listed the fenced off gravel pits for 12% MORE than he bought them for last year (at the peak).
I can only shake my head wondering what is going through this developer’s brain (if he has one).
It’s going to hurt immensely when realization kicks in about the true situation in the Calgary market.
#11 Lee Bow on 11.03.15 at 7:07 pm
I was looking at XIU today. It’s only about 2 bucks off the highs (~10%). I didn’t look any closer into the index constituents, may be I misunderstand something. Given the commodities situation and the loaded spring of housing, isn’t there a lot of potential downside to buying XIU at this time?
===================
Consider HXT, which is HORIZONS S&PTSX60 ETF instead of XIU: MER of XIU is .18% whereas HXT is only .03%.
Click here to got to its summary
So, I just reduced my indexing annual expense for the TSX tracker by .15%/annum.
#273 jess on 11.03.15 at 7:10 pm
———————————
Exactly. This is real. If it wasn’t, new buildings in Manhatten wouldn’t be being built with breaker walls.
Here’s my daily snark. Talk about hypocrisy. Forcing CRA to hand over to the IRS, resident Canadians on a platter – a witch hunt where the costs are being paid for by Canadian taxpayers, and clients of Canadian financial institutions(notice those higher fees lately and lost jobs), all the while “US ranks as top tax haven, refusing to share tax data despite FATCA.” Eventually, once all countries succumb to FATCA, USA will be the ONLY tax haven.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertwood/2015/11/03/u-s-ranks-as-top-tax-haven-refusing-to-share-tax-data-despite-fatca/
JSS on 11.03.15 at 7:05 pm
“And, in Calgary, you know what happens next.”
And what’s next? Jobs have already been slashed, house prices are also dropping.
—————————–
Calgary is an example of how people will sell their left kidney before losing money on their home. They will hang on until absolutely forced to sell.
Whether Cowtown is down 6% or 15% (and the truth is likely somewhere in between), that decline is minuscule in a market that has double in the last decade.
If the oil price induced recession continues in AB people will slowly be forced to sell.
– Unemployment insurance runs out.
– Savings/severance is exhausted.
– Parents realize they cannot fund their kid’s house forever.
– the laid-off go back to school
– the laid-off move someplace else (parents basement?).
– more and more houses hit the rental market and rents cannot sustain costs.
It all has the makings of a SLOW GRIND down in house prices until oil recovers.
And that could be next year, 5 years from now, or 10 years form now.
It’s difficult to imagine the CAD weakening further against the USD.
Won’t complain if it happens tho.
Bondage with credit card debt can be a decades long process of deprivation and loss of family members. I am reading CHARLES DICKENS best seller: LITTLE LORRIT which takes place in 19th century Britain where debtors were placed in prison for years with their family members. Of course, now we don’t go to prison but one thing has not changed…your family suffers with the debt bondage.
Our family cleared the decks a while back and we are forever grateful for the freedom from bondage and glory every day we are able to be a family without the credit card burden.
Title to CHARLES DICKENS is LITTLE DORRITT. sorry kids.
No way interest rates are going up. All eyes on Japan and the thought that even the US can end up this way. What’s needed is to somehow get inflation ignited and raising interest rates is exactly the opposite thing to do. The whole world is stuck and eventually coming to realize that what is needed is Keynes simple advise, that government this time must lift the economy out of this mess and continue to do so until inflation reaches the rate of 4% and even there let it settle in further and only then gently begin to regain control…. But you were talking about Dec 2016 weren’t you??? Oops…
Q: What are one of the key conditions the fed says are required to raise interest rates?
A: 2% inflation.
Q: Is the Fed’s preferred indicator for guaging inflation at 2%?
A: No. The latest Core PCE index (less Food and Energy) is 1.31%, unchanged from the previous month. There is a general disinflationary trend in this index since 2012.
It’s not magic. Just listen to what Janet Yellen is ACTUALLY saying.
#33 Disgusted at YVR on 11.03.15 at 8:24 pm
Disgusted at yesterday’s HAM comments.
Housing is a privilege ! It so that way around the world. We are now just joining the global community so accept it. Many families overseas have substandard housing and this is the norm worldwide. Choices made affect your future. I own on the Westside knowing this would happen in the future.
Accept it.
—————
Wow I’m disgusted with your point of view which Is “alot of the world has it worse than us so just accept things are going to get tough here oh and by the way I bought on the west side already ” What an ass you are ! Canadian soil should be for Canadians , not a place for foreign millionaires to Park their cash, Empty houses and streets are detrimental to our neighbourhoods and local business
#41 bigtowne
Congrats on killing your credit card debt. Very smart. Credit cards are meant as a convenience card for paying for things and making it easy to operate in the world. Not meant to act as a loan or LOC. Most people should not have one. Just look at Canadian credit card levels. The truth.
Triple # 271,
“6mm equates to ~48 inches over 20 years.
…..or 8 feet over 40 years.
That is a serious scenario if you’re living in Richmond close to YVR or on the oceanfront.”
“The house I lived in in 1960 should be almost totally submerged by now, but it isn’t.
Hmmmmm….6mm. Someone’s math is wrong. Or is everyone’s math wrong?”
———————————–
Math not’s wrong, but your interpretation might be.
My point was, sea levels are NOT rising anywhere near the rate (6mm a year) it did just 10,000 to 20,000 years during the last cyclical melt.
Remember this change occurred, without man’s influence.
http://curry.eas.gatech.edu/Courses/6140/ency/Chapter10/Ency_Oceans/Sea_Level_Variations.pdf
Read the supplied, Kominz pdf. and dispute the facts.
Anyone?
#37 Bottoms_Up
dude…
you can’t even spell “Manhatten”…
let alone comprehend advanced scientific matters.
hopefully this isn’t a repost, but you made it on CBC News:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-mansions-sell-for-bargain-1.3302103
p.s. you are a “real estate blogger”, did you know?
“The numbers are further diddled when you consider the final selling price of a property is reported as a
percentage of the last listing value – not the original
asking price. Thus a property can be reduced in price
several times, and the board ignores the decline. Its
monthly package therefore is not an accurate reflection
of the steady erosion of the market….”
We’ve discussed this before. List price means nothing.
As long as sale prices are what is consistently reported
we will get an accurate view of the market.
There is an explosion of wrinklies on scooters on sidewalks. These things go way too fast with their ludicrous mode and immediate regulation of these things is needed before these boomers start causing pileups and carnage on the sidewalks. On an off day maybe Garth can bring attention to this issue?
Any advice one the Ottawa housing market – Job market has been pretty tight here since 2012 but no market correction. Maybe condos have gone down a bit but not even by a meaningful amount.
@ The American post 207 from yesterday’s blog:
At ease, Yankee. Read my post (#208) and you’ll understand my point. You made more wrong assumptions than I did (and I only had one).
I was the one in the back of the classroom chewing gum (and selling it to classmates) and I don’t have a lawn to mow – got rid of all RE property not long ago. What hurt me most is people around me trying to be good little citizens and make sure I had a colonoscopy done orally because I had more money than they did. And I said “ok, if this is how things are done around here, I’ll blend in!” hence, my demonstrative over-zealous protection of local, provincial and federal laws.
In the end though, I am too busy tending to my family, job and portfolio to snitch on others. I trolled a bit. But I still think that CRA should get their fair share from the madness around us and they’re not doing it fast enough.
USA interest rate hike?
One and done just to show they can, then back down early in 2016 to keep things smooth until the election.
Janet is a Democrat.
Just a guess…
“Remember, oil is Canada’s big export. Commodity prices are at a 16-year low. And it’s all about to get worse – on December 16th.”
Garth,
You really out did yourself with wild conjecture. The FED has been talking smack for a year now. When the FED does move it will be because the bond market forces it to. Then, the risk off trade will reverse, which means treasuries sold, which means foreign flows back to where they came from which means US $ down. Your Bay Street guy’s chatter is nonsense and not worthy of mention.
Deflation will turn to inflation, commodites and the loonie will rise, just as it did after much more difficult circumstances for oil in 1986 and 2009. Please review the history of the oil markets. We have bottomed if history is any guide. Moreover, most of the oil stocks are up dramatically from their lows, so it is not just a dead cat bounce.
I do appreciate the contrarian signal you gave a couple of days ago.
IF the MLS site is at all accurate, you can’t get a half decent 2 bedroom condo in a decent neighbourhood in Calgary close to the centre for less than 300K. This makes me think that everyone is asking over inflated prices, or that the market hasn’t really dropped much. Most of us don’t care about the obscenely big, mcmansions.
#32 Freedom First –
”Yes. I lived through the 20% mortgage rates in the 80’s. People then were of the opinion rates would never go down, exactly the same as today where many can’t see rates ever going up. Recency. It can kill ya.”
I remember it well, BCTV were interviewing a couple when interest rates hit 23% and asked them why they were buying a house with rates this high. Their answer was that they were afraid they would go higher. The herd behaves in mysterious ways. Today we have the opposite. Lowest rates ever and highest prices ever and the herd is still rushing to buy at these levels. It ain’t gonna end well since the same people causing the problem of high prices will be the same ones causing the prices to come down as they turn around and bail. We may not be too far off such an event.
#32 Freedom First on 11.03.15 at 8:24 pm
You had me at ” I can’t teach anyone anything …”
“There’s no guarantee the Fed will move, of course, but it seems likely.” – Garth
———————————————————
No guarantee at all. It has also seemed likely many times previously that they would go up, but they didn’t. I believe that even if they do go up, they won’t stay up for long. These central bankers are all the same. Remember Carney?
Re”Wow I’m disgusted with your point of view which Is “alot of the world has it worse than us so just accept things are going to get tough here oh and by the way I bought on the west side already ” What an ass you are ! Canadian soil should be for Canadians , not a place for foreign millionaires to Park their cash, Empty houses and streets are detrimental to our neighbourhoods and local business”
Here, here! Many of us couldn’t agree with you more…
“The Fed has messed with everyone’s head now for months, suggesting rates will rise, only to snatch it back at the last minute.”
Months? How about 4 years…
There will absolutely be no rate increase this year or next because as you say, the economy is pooched!! Here, the USA,Europe, everywhere..
The other day I commented that something between a kerfuffle and a stick swinging event was brewing up here in the Athapaskow Oil Sands and that if it hit the MSM or social media, I would offer it to the dogs.
Herewith:
https://www.change.org/p/sef-suncor-com-media-suncor-com-suncor-energy-abandons-fort-mac-residents-in-poor-economic-times
I am the first to support labour mobility rights in this dandy little country of ours. If the lad or lass in Cape Breton is more qualified than a local, then the former should get the job.
Nonetheless, the locals are piping up. We’ll see how it plays out.
Yeah rate hike will come about the time they nail down that “Middle east peace process” they’ve been dangling over our heads for what 50 years now?
Protip: flip backwards what the elites tell us and the world makes so much more sense. Try it.
Could you please supply some more information about Spiffington Estates? The name alone makes it the place I want to live. My letterhead will look so very impressive with an address like that.
I have already begun packing.
It is a shame that in a city with million dollar homes the facilities and schools are so old and outdated. Don’t worry too much about vancouver west side, that was unreacheable for mortals long ago. The east side will be the epicenter of the eartquake, where the locals are bidding againts fake rich foreigners.
Do you think the canadian government will jump to the help of yvr when bigger real problems are in the east?
I am tired of this shit, keeping my money safe because if the deflation kicks in money is king!
It is worse for debtors in deflationary environments, because the wages are not growing…
Congratulations mr. Turner for the cbc articles quotes, albertans will hate you for telling the truth.
#45 Bby604 on 11.03.15 at 9:06 pm
#60 Dave on 11.03.15 at 9:52 pm
What an ass you are ! Canadian soil should be for Canadians , not a place for foreign millionaires to Park their cash, Empty houses and streets are detrimental to our neighbourhoods and local business
Oh dear, so you won’t like my conclusions then. I have been reading memoirs and biographies of people coming to Canada in the early 1800’s. Many of these settlers had a very difficult time financially – although they brought money with them, they were often hopeless managers of their lives, usually broke (except for land speculators) and had to beg for top ups of cash from “home”. It’s clearly traditional for white Canadians to lose money on real estate, resort to foreign funds, Bank of Mom etc.
People should be free to do whatever they want with their money, don’t you think?
Otherwise we’d have to put up barriers to the free movement of capital and that’s not always worked out so well in the past :-)
“And, in Calgary, you know what happens next.” – HonGT
#”NeverYouMind,Honey”… #”NeverYouMind”…
https://youtu.be/nejXDl9BPbY
The FED raise rates in Dec?
Federal election day exactly 1 year from today. Would I make book on that BIG world-changing .25% rate hike being delivered in Dec? NO!
COULD rates rise 2% over the next 2 years. Sure Thing…
Just as likely that I will lose 100 lbs and oil hits $110 bbl and I am going back to work…… could happen…..
With The Liberals planning on bringing refugee’s to Canada. How many Germans would like to come to Canada (I think many).German’s manufacture stuff. Probably a few good VW Engineers available. Make our Country stronger.
“Spiffington Estates (formerly farmer Brown’s duck slough halfway to Lethbridge. )”
I think they call it Mahogany.
#47 Blacksheep
Remember this change occurred, without man’s influence.
Read the supplied, Kominz pdf. and dispute the facts.
Anyone?
Yes. We get it climate change does happen naturally. It doesn’t take a rocket appliance to figure that one out.
It should also be quite obvious to anyone alive right now that; yes, humans do play a role in our changing climate. Our earth we inhabit is a closed loop system. So, essentially everything we do is going to have cumulative effect, be it small, or be it large.
For the people who think a few billion internal combustion engines circling our planet has zero effect, then perhaps you should try a smaller scale experiment. Start your car in your garage with your door closed and let us know how that works out for you? The net result will be an increase in the air temperature of the shop as well as an air quality that is toxic to human health.
I have worked in many heavy industries, and currently work at and plant that extracts oil from dirt. Every plant I have ever worked at creates heat, and exchanges in with cool air or water from the environment. Thus heating up the environment around it. Every car, and house on the planet also crates heat. People can’t seriously think this has zero effect on our environment.
Our home.
Now, I also full well know that the real crazies are going to spin this and create carbon taxes to further siphon money from the hands of us, the many, to the hands of the few. Never let a good crisis go to waste. Like TurnerNation has be saying… The elites (the real crazies) want it all. Every last cent you earn.
Modern day slavery.
The real crazies care not about having a hospitable climate for us to live in. They care about lies, confusion, corruption, complete control of everything, EVERYTHING, and ensuring this illusion we are living in is perpetuated to keep the power from the people (where it belongs) and in the hands of just a few.
Most are simply taking the bait on the climate change hoax. I love a good conspiracy as much as the next, but this one has been spun, and spun around again.
Simple observation around us tells a tall tale.
I mean we have well documented and known geoengineering happening now, and has been happening for decades.
That, by very definition is man made climate change.
Garth, when I read your posts, in my minds eye (ear?), I read your words in a much more basso profoundo voice than what I heard in that interview.
How is one to reconcile this?
Spiffington Estates? Like, is that a real place? That’s a joke name…or should be. Cripes, and I thought “McKenzie Towne” sounded gay…
I already hate anyone buying there…pooftas!
Over the last couple yrs we’ve heard from home owners on this blog who Belligerently stated in their opinions realestate can only go up and “if” by chance there was a property correction they would just hold and avoid selling at loss until prices reflate..Seems that’s not working for those living the dream in Priddis.
Unfortunately when bubbles burst the losses can be much higher then those optimistic musings..
This oil price shock is deeper than most can imagine.
What happens when all the leveraged companies involved cannot service their debt at 44 bucks a barrel?.We are just seeing the beginning of this train wreck for both Canada and the U.S
#55 ROCK BEATS PAPER
If Fed increases the rates (and they will be the first to do so) oil will go to 25-35 and loonie to 0.6. With fallout from CMHC loonie goes to .35-.45 long term
If they don’t increase rates oil will trade between 30-55 for years to come. Loonie goes to .45-.55 due to housing fallout.
Until inflation hits. The Swiss national bank just indicated relatively low rates for decades to come.
Risk adjusted loonie .45. Period.
“…bubblicious dream property in lovely, luxurious Pepperidge Farms, Saddlesore or elegant Spiffington Estates…”
*************************
You also forgot the illustrious Mortgage Heights neighbourhood.
Garth you have been calling for higher interest and mortgage rates for some time now. You think in two years that mortgages will be almost double what they are now? There is no way that they are going to rise that fast. Not gonna happen. You are way off on this.
I always said decline in prices would be in the 50-70 % range. Unless they kill the loonie.
Now I think both are feasible: decline of 60 % and loonie down the toilet.
#3 BobC
do_not_sell_your_stocks.
get_rid_of_your_bonds.
buy_em
#48 saskatoon on 11.03.15 at 9:30 pm
——————————–
Please enlightan me.
Dave: This makes me think that everyone is asking over inflated prices, or that the market hasn’t really dropped much.
replace or with and: everyone is asking too much and the market hasn’t really dropped much. The thing about the two Priddis houses was the owners could afford to sell for half. That’s what rich people do. That makes me think that we’re looking at a 50% price drop!
Washed Up Lawyer: from your link: Suncor Energy abandons Fort Mac residents in poor economic times
that’s what it paid for: a work force that could be safely laid off.
Maywick View Lane: thanks for the tip ( Kentucky )
Victoria Real Estate Update: Is Canada a world leader in mortgage fraud? Mark Hanson says it’s only when prices drop that you discover the mortgage fraud. wasn’t it Warren Buffet that said it’s only when the tide goes out that you see who’s swimming naked?
Please stop talking about Calgary. Get back on topic – the GTA is the centre of the universe.
@Gregor Samsa, post #35:
I heard exactly the same thing you said back in 1998, when the price of oil got as low as $11/barrel. I’m having another nostalgia trip to the time tunnel. Say, have you heard that new song Lucky Man by The Verve? How about Downtown by Days of the New? This past weekend I was on a road trip, including a long drive on the 401. What did I see? A lot of cars, including the one I was in that use GASOLINE. I know that because I saw many of them getting refueled at those On Route petrol stations. I also saw a lot of trucks, and a Greyhound bus, which have DIESEL engines. I also saw a long CN freight train on tracks running along side the 401 with 2 DIESEL locomotives at the front, and another radio controlled DIESEL locomotive in mid train. While going by the Toronto Pearson International Airport I saw many planes, that use JET FUEL taking off and landing. Yes, new technologies are going to kill oil very soon. I live in Southwestern Ontario, where last month the harvest was going on in farming country. Tell me, do all those tractors, trucks and other farm vehicles all run on solar energy?
#66 Nora Lenderby on 11.03.15 at 10:23 pm
#45 Bby604 on 11.03.15 at 9:06 pm
#60 Dave on 11.03.15 at 9:52 pm
What an ass you are ! Canadian soil should be for Canadians , not a place for foreign millionaires to Park their cash, Empty houses and streets are detrimental to our neighbourhoods and local business
Oh dear, so you won’t like my conclusions then. I have been reading memoirs and biographies of people coming to Canada in the early 1800’s. Many of these settlers had a very difficult time financially – although they brought money with them, they were often hopeless managers of their lives, usually broke (except for land speculators) and had to beg for top ups of cash from “home”. It’s clearly traditional for white Canadians to lose money on real estate, resort to foreign funds, Bank of Mom etc.
People should be free to do whatever they want with their money, don’t you think?
Otherwise we’d have to put up barriers to the free movement of capital and that’s not always worked out so well in the past :-)
——-
Wow did you hurt our back with that stretch?
Canada already has controls like this in place for farmland and the sale of resources and/ or land to foreign corporations or citizens , canada isn’t exactly a bastion for free markets and capital flows, What was your point in that incoherent rambling? And how did it relate to mine?
It is a tough time for the US to be increasing rates when most countries are dropping theirs. This will push up the US dollar at a time when the Dallas Fed has decreased the countries manufacturing outlook 10 months in a row and US exports are down 11%, so far this year.
In addition, according to HSBC, global GDP is down 3.4% in 2015.
Finally, 20% of US auto loans are estimated to be subprime and 51% of US workers make less than $30,000 gross per year.
This are the conditions for rate decreases.
*********************** :
How the elites plant to grab all of our money.
Fellow tax slaves, we work to pay off our debt but it is ever increasing, coupled with the new fines and penalties our masters heap onto us. We are told this is necessary for our master’s survival, because after all where would we be without him? (H)e makes us.
Each year, more and more laws and fines and penaities and fees come into law. Mainly around air and car transportation. It’s all to keep us safe you see.
Next, carbon taxes to criple our travel.
But brother you say, I have $50 in my wallet. It’s mine.
Ok, with 5% inflation yearly – I’m looking at my cell, internet, insurance, electricity, prop tax, bank fee, food bills….that $50 will become $48.50, then $45.50..then…
But our officials tell us inflation is 1% – almost nothing, childs play number. Lulling us into sleeping.
That cash…soon to be banned as they cannot profit? You’ll be forced into Email money transfers ($1.50 fee), Apple or Amazon or Google Pay (3% fees to be embedded into purchase price)? Plus carbon taxes (5%?).
Paypal went public, stock is doing well.
So, $50 (which was $80 pre-income tax!) – 5% – 5% – 3% – 14% HST = ….killing us softly.
#72 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.03.15 at 10:44 pm
Garth, when I read your posts, in my minds eye (ear?), I read your words in a much more basso profoundo voice than what I heard in that interview. How is one to reconcile this?
Much more youthful on the radio, agreed. Must be the Doppler Effect.
Already priced in. — Garth
===
Keep dreaming.
The train-wreck is balanced. Part of the portfolio.
#71
Nope. Nice try though.
#73 stage1dave on 11.03.15 at 10:46 pm
Cripes, and I thought “McKenzie Towne” sounded gay…I already hate anyone buying there…pooftas!
Blimey, Mr. Dave, that’s fighting talk! Careful, or I’ll have to get Ye Horrible Olde Englishe Hande Bagge and whack yer one around yer lughole…
#72 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.03.15 at 10:44 pm
Garth, when I read your posts, in my minds eye (ear?), I read your words in a much more basso profoundo voice than what I heard in that interview.
How is one to reconcile this?
——————————————————–
Agreed! Pleasant and helpful too – where was the snark and blustering that we have come to know and love? It’s like when a favorite book is made into a movie and the casting isn’t what you imagined.
Personally, I’m going to pretend it never happened.
#53 gladiator on 11.03.15 at 9:38 pm
@ The American post 207 from yesterday’s blog:
At ease, Yankee. Read my post (#208) and you’ll understand my point. You made more wrong assumptions than I did (and I only had one).
I was the one in the back of the classroom chewing gum (and selling it to classmates) and I don’t have a lawn to mow – got rid of all RE property not long ago. What hurt me most is people around me trying to be good little citizens and make sure I had a colonoscopy done orally because I had more money than they did. And I said “ok, if this is how things are done around here, I’ll blend in!” hence, my demonstrative over-zealous protection of local, provincial and federal laws.
In the end though, I am too busy tending to my family, job and portfolio to snitch on others. I trolled a bit. But I still think that CRA should get their fair share from the madness around us and they’re not doing it fast enough.”
Nice moonwalking!
Reminds me of that worn out old WW2 joke,
Q: How many gears does an italian tank have?
A: 1 forward, 5 reverse
#89 As Is Old Man
#71
Our earth we inhabit is a closed loop system.
Nope. Nice try though.
———————-
Care to enlighten us then?????
“better-than-expected corporate earnings and a big bump in consumer confidence.” – Garth
Earnings are almost always better than expected as wall street plays the game of lowering the bar sufficiently such that beating the consensus is practically guaranteed. Consumer confidence is not translating into overall sales.
Sales have declined for three quarters straight. Thomson Reuters forecasts that in the third quarter, earnings per share will drop 2.8% while sales drop 4%.
#89 AS is Old Man
Yes the Earth is a closed loop system. Otherwise we would not have an atmosphere which by the way is constantly trying to balance itself thermodynamically due to it’s rotation and other changes put upon it. (man made perhaps, volcanic)
The huge demographic shift in the next decade or so will have an even greater effect on property values than what rate the fed sets or what the employment numbers show.
A combination of boomers downsizing and families having less children will leave languished areas (mostly suburban) in many cities. 500K to million plus valued homes today will be sold at deep discounts when this comes to fruition.
The harsh reality of supply and demand economics will make all of today’s talk child’s play. The best bet for those who save and live below their means is to wait it out if possible and to get in the market when this shift gains momentum.
Buzz today. North Vancouver, average 60 yo house, average lot.
View of city. Ask $1,500,000, 17 offers,
Sell…..$2,250,000
Crazy!!!!!
Prairieboy 43 – Germans coming to Canada
—————————-
Not likely.
In Germany they actually manufacture things.
They also have excellent trades programs and apprenticeship programs, that actually successfully train for skilled jobs in industry.
Talked to a stone mason the other day who is going back to Germany after living and working several years in Calgary.
His reason:
“you Canadians live to work, Germans work to live.
Eight weeks holidays, shut down at Christmas.”
He makes far more in Germany, gets far more time off, and will build himself a stone home that will last for 2000 years, for 200,000 euros.
Why would a skilled worked from the most succesful industrialized country in the world want to come to live in Canada?
Especially after we have hollowed out our manufacturing base and replaced it with selling each other inflated real estate.
Bye, bye Canada.
It appears the “don’t have a million” bunch should raise it to two million. If people around the world are really eating up Vancouver real estate, what’s two million to the world’s rich? That’s barely money to an ontario teacher.
Your “guy” on Bay St who manages billions is planning on a 70c CAD, but as I write this, the Loonie is at 76.6 cents US.
Am I missing something? Are the Forex people that stupid? Someone here is wrong. Very wrong.
#97 Dirt Dog on 11.04.15 at 12:18 am
Buzz today. North Vancouver, average 60 yo house, average lot.
View of city. Ask $1,50d 0,000, 17 offers,
Sell…..$2,250,000
Crazy!!!!!
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Not crazy. Money laundering BC Govt approved…..
And another FED snooze fest with no rate hike…….the big sign in my living room "The FED will raise rates tomorrow". Not to mention we are going on five years of "The FED will raise rates next year". Kinda like the sign in my living room.
#98 AB Boxster on 11.04.15 at 12:19 am
Prairieboy 43 – Germans coming to Canada
—————————-
Not likely.
In Germany they actually manufacture things.
They also have excellent trades programs and apprenticeship programs, that actually successfully train for skilled jobs in industry.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
And they have 1/3 the size of Govt.
BYE BYE CANADA……
Was at a luncheon for retired fellow employees out here in 604land today. One fellow, 80 plus years old, tells the crowd at the lunch table that he has sold his house (had it for 40 plus years) and is currently renting. It was like a din fell over the table, everyone just looked at each other. I was the only one that congratulated him on a good move. It’s just the way it is out here … ain’t gonna change till it does … he must have made off like a bandit.
Gartho, buddy get a grip – rates won’t be rising for a long time, the world is a mess there is no way rates are going up, maybe down. By the way you made the local Calgary news at 11 pm – putting the fear into people :)
Oil determines the market here – we are an oil economy no ands ifs or buts, the dippers don’t get it, with their tax and spend policies and oil in the shitter – we are screwed either way. I am in the construction side of things and I can tell you it’s ugly – like someone turned my phone off!
Good thing I invested heavily in USA real estate 3 yrs ago – only thing saving my ass now :)
Garth you should do a post on how future real estate prices will affect Boomers who are banking on reverse mortgages. I know plenty with little or no savings who have this down as their complete retirement strategy.
#45 Bby604 on 11.03.15 at 9:
Well said.
maybe everything is global now and all of our norms are out of whack when trying to quantify and understand housing markets, Vancouver is only one. When 80 % of Chinese Gazillionaires want to leave China…..that must tell any thinking person that China Inc, is not sustainable and the people that have robbed and stolen from their own now want to live with us
Even if I could afford the West Side I wouldn’t live there. Have you seen the place lately?
Climate change makes for interesting reading, I will give you that, but people this is a economy/business/investment blog not a blog about Climatology nor the 1st Law of Thermodynamics as it applies to Earth.
_____________________
I agree with some comments that people will exhaust a good measure of their finances before selling their home in Calgary (severance, EI, savings, etc.).
Having said that, EI and severance will not pay your mortgage indefinitely.
I believe it will get worse (read the recent August 2015 Payroll Report by Stats Can – it is dismal).
When payroll losses are that high, something has to give in the economy.
People, whether they live in Calgary or elsewhere, will eventually “cut and run” by selling their home to recoup as much of their equity in cash to live off until the economy gets better and/or relocate elsewhere there are jobs.
I lived through 2 Alberta “Oil & Gas” recessions and it did not take years for the real estate market to plummet in Calgary or Edmonton.
In the early 80s recession, I saw a 20% price drop in my Calgary property in Lake Midnapore 6 months after the onset of the recession. I sold for that price drop before it got worse, and it did.
Look up the historical data, there was a 20% to 40% price drop in Alberta properties then and that’s adjusting for inflation.
Mortgage interest rate discussions aside, when people do not have an income they will sell at lower prices which I believe we are about to see happen in Calgary and Edmonton (i.e., 6 months ago the oil price was over $100/bbl).
#58 For those about to flop
Reminds me of the movie where she says “you had me at how much?”
Money Flows Out Of Canada At Top Speed As Manufacturing Hits Record Low
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/11/02/canada-economy-manufacturing-capital-investment_n_8452426.html
It appears Canada is a”one horse show”.
Now that oil has crashed, that horse appears to have a thrown a shoe.
Manufacturing has mostly left for warmer climates and lower wages.
$$$$$ are leaving CDN at the fasted rate in history.
Chapter two might get ugly.
hey Prairieboy number 69
Why would Germans want to come to Canada? Are you insane? Have you ever been to Germany? Fab place.
High wages
Very very cheap housing, both to own and rent
6/7/8 weeks paid holiday a year.
An hour from most of the capital cities in Europe.
Buckets of jobs, all totally secure.
High tech everything.
Short winter, not so cold.
Been around this world a lot and Berlin is the place I would love to have a city flat.
These migrants don’t speak German, they speak English and once they have their refugee papers I’ll give you one guess as to where they will go – to us in London.
Cheers
We must intervene to avoid further thread slide into dickensianism, search engine confounding, and keyword index database overload.
The correct title is in fact “Little Dorrit”.
Thank you, and have a good snark day!
-The Canadian Spelling Academy/Academie Canadienne de l’Orthografie [sic]
“There won’t be one hike. Rather this will be the first in a series – as has always been the case.
Rates should grow by about 1% a year for the next two.”
The Fed may raise rates in Dec but there’s currently no data to show that this will be the first in a series or that they will grow by 1% a year. These are just the Fed’s forecasts but they have to be validated by data after the Dec rate hike to see how the economy and inflation are tracking. Significant rate rises like you’re talking about will only happen when inflation rises at or above the target rate. When that happens I agree the Fed will have to move quickly. However, given inflation has been far below target and expectations, we should expect interest rates to stay “accomodative” until inflation catches up. The Fed has said as much in ther statements. Predicting that rates will rise 1% a year is as nonsensical as predicting a one and done approach. Only the data will show the path of future interest rates.
#45 Bby604 on 11.03.15 at 9:06 pm
“Canadian soil should be for Canadians , not a place for foreign millionaires to Park their cash, Empty houses and streets are detrimental to our neighbourhoods and local business”
_____________________________________________
Canadian houses shouldn’t be reserved for only people who are a citizens of the country. They are available to whoever has the means to purchase them and rightly so. Your sense of entitlement is overwhelming your sense of logic. Or perhaps your intention is to create an “us” vs “them” paradigm where you can justify your fear and hatred towards another group of people.
#32 Freedom First
–
Wait a minute. We all know what a humble man you are, so I have to ask if you’re seriously comparing yourself to the Greek philosopher Socrates. Actually, when you think about it, it sort of makes sense… As I recall, he didn’t have much use for women either.
Personally, if I were a stone mason, I’d rather not live in a house designed with three pillars, and built with only two:
“[…]Banking Union was conceived with three pillars: a single supervisory mechanism, a single resolution mechanism, and a uniform deposit insurance scheme, which remains to be specified. For money to be truly one, we need all three”
Source
But that’s just me, I’m sure it’s different there, it can never happen (again), and locals are the most informed to know the difference, as they always do, every single time. :)
People should refer to house sales as “a $100,000 house on a small piece of land valued at $1.4M” rather than a “$1.5 million dollar house” or maybe even “a $150,000 liability (to tear it down) on a $1.65M piece of land” most houses are less than $200 per square foot to build brand new and depreciate quickly.
Just like real estate where people have backed themselves into a corner where a 0.5% rise in rates will destroy them by ignoring all evidence that interest rates will rise, people have built huge cities where a 15 cm rise in sea levels will destroy them and displace a couple of billion people because they ignored all evidence that sea levels can rise and fall dramatically over the years.
I was hoping for the Fed to move in september and I sure hope they will do so in december after everybody (almost…) has realized that systemic risks from China and oil were exagerated.
Construction of homes and auto sales are on fire in the US, the recovery is slow but relentless, asset bubbles are forming everywhere.
It’s time.
Oh my. A whole lotta stuff in the comments that interests me.
1) NORA L. is now, it seems, reading things like the book by Susanna Moody, “Roughing It In The Bush”. Margaret Atwood has said the overriding theme in Canadian writing is survival. (I myself think the inability of the British to recreate a British system of land ownership in Canada is THE largely unwritten history of early Ontario.)
2) LITTLE DORRIT has a famous paragraph that begins “Marseilles lay broiling in the sun” – the BBC did an excellent tv mini-series. (Mr. Merdle’s last conversation, before he slits his own throat, is a hoot.)
3) Can I suggest the phrase “Don’t shoot the messenger” to ESTRELLA, and refer her to Cleopatra’s treatment of the bearer of bad news. Or Hitler’s order to have the guy who told him that Stalingrad was lost charged with treason because “What he is telling me is an impossibility.”
4) ROCK BEATS PAPER on earnings exceeding expectations: yes, I recall reading that in the US they routinely exceed analysts’ forecasts 70% of the time.
5) #51 SEBEE “There is an explosion of wrinklies on scooters on sidewalks.”
BOOM! BOOM! BOOM! BOOM! BOOM!
(This is putting my imagination into overdrive.)
6) Looking at GT’s Mephistophelian picture, yes, one would properly guess basso profundo. But rich and clever men do tend to be soft spoken.
7) Finally, one blogdog complains of Calvary and Alaberta getting too much press here, that Hogtown is really where it’s at.
Bang on. “The Prairie Provinces” were created by God to grow wheat and cows. Period.
@ #66 Nora Lenderby on 11.03.15 at 10:23 pm
Otherwise we’d have to put up barriers to the free movement of capital and that’s not always worked out so well in the past :-)
******************************
Are you under the illusion that there are not ‘barriers to the free movement of capital?’
It has always been and continues to be an uneven playing field. Getting moreso, I’m afraid, in spite of the lauding of ‘free trade’ agreements the world over.
We are shoulder deep in globalization now and things have only gotten more restrictive for the small entrepreneur. Yes, we are creative and tenacious so we are still able to fight through, but it’s getting more and more difficult.
I would like to see people wake up from the brainwashing and realize that running around holding on to the belief that there are not barriers to the free movement of capital is actually hurting them even if they are not themselves entrepreneurs.
@ #116 Ontario’s Left Coast on 11.04.15 at 6:40 am
#32 Freedom First
–
Wait a minute. We all know what a humble man you are, so I have to ask if you’re seriously comparing yourself to the Greek philosopher Socrates. Actually, when you think about it, it sort of makes sense… As I recall, he didn’t have much use for women either.
——————————–
But would Freedom First ever deign to ask questions, or would he rather tell us all the answer?
#98 AB Boxster on 11.04.15 at 12:19 am
Prairieboy 43 – Germans coming to Canada
—————————-
Not likely.
In Germany they actually manufacture things.
They also have excellent trades programs and apprenticeship programs, that actually successfully train for skilled jobs in industry.
Talked to a stone mason the other day who is going back to Germany after living and working several years in Calgary.
His reason:
“you Canadians live to work, Germans work to live.
Eight weeks holidays, shut down at Christmas.”
He makes far more in Germany, gets far more time off, and will build himself a stone home that will last for 2000 years, for 200,000 euros.
Why would a skilled worked from the most succesful industrialized country in the world want to come to live in Canada?
Especially after we have hollowed out our manufacturing base and replaced it with selling each other inflated real estate.
Bye, bye Canada…”
Not to mention the fact that he can drink outstanding beer at a reasonable price while watching the world’s best soccer…
I AM STILL IN CHARGE! DON’T FORGET IT!
When your not-ready little friend takes his oath today, yours truly will still be making all the important decisions.
Thanks to C-51 and the last three omnibus bills, my powers remain unadulterated. Small but important measures in those bills assure that I remain in charge of everything, a little behind the scenes, which suits me fine. (Thanks to you, Vladimir, for pointing out just how to do this, comrade!) The national surveillance equipment is fully in place and is password protected.
(The password is about cat names, and only I know it, btw)
As the new President of Canada, I will maintain a steady hand. But it’s not about me, it’s about a greater Canada.
FYI, I also maintain a steady hand over the data dump I have engineered these last two weeks. I know everything about all of you, including the freaks who come to this blog. That includes you too, Garth, my little turncoat with some very strange habits.
Today my Presidency begins.
Obey or face the consequences.
Vancouver Real estate outperforming every balanced portfolio. It has gone vertical.
A detached home on the Westside is rising by $1000 per every 24 hours!!
What stock/bond portfolio can do that???
Prediction: $3 million average price by spring. Rising to $4 million by 2019.
You must have loved Nortel, RIM, Bombardier and Bre-X. — Garth
from the Post:
“The dominant influence of Chinese investors in Vancouver has finally been proven with comprehensive data.”
http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/in-a-six-month-period-70-of-detached-homes-sold-in-vancouvers-west-side-went-to-mainland-china-buyers
So, Garth, what do you think?
We had that discussion yesterday. Try to keep up. — Garth
Sooner or later everyone sits down to a banquet of consequences…Largest outflows of capital in the world are happening to Canada. Good summaries are here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-02/money-flooding-out-of-canada-at-fastest-pace-in-developed-world
and here:
https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/canada-experiences-fastest-cash-outflows-in-history-nathan-mcdonald.html
…..”And we’ll probably know more on Wednesday when Janet Yellen does her thing in front of a Congressional panel”….
Her again????
….”There’s no guarantee the Fed will move, of course, but it seems likely”….
Each time it’s seems likely.. and they have always a good reason why IR will not rise.
The result is people still buying (before IR rise.. of course) with a fix mortgage.
#2 – No hike. Fed has zero credibility. All bluff.
That’s right!
# 5 – been waiting for interest rates to rise since 2006…
LOL…
C’est ridicule! It’s ridiculous!
#32 Freedom First on 11.03.15 at 8:24 pm
Yes, I live in Alberta and the SHHTF and is getting worse every Friday when more people are given their pink slips.
I don’t hear denial anymore just silence until another bunch announce they just got axed. Not pretty to watch. I take no joy in other people’s pain.
Yes. I lived through the 20% mortgage rates in the 80’s. People then were of the opinion rates would never go down, exactly the same as today where many can’t see rates ever going up. Recency. It can kill ya.
The timeline of the rates staying high or staying low is irrelevant. How people play the times is very very relevant. Amazing how people can lose their shirts at both times.
It’s like Socrates said, “I can’t teach anyone anything, I only hope to get them to think”.
I try to speak nothing but the truth when I post, and though you may not agree with me, I hope you can do the same, just think.
===============================
There ya go! A whole post without boasting. Your mother would be proud.
“and the Dippers up in Edmonton pursue their tax-and-spend agenda”
-Somehow the Conservatives that controlled the entire provinces fiscal policy for 40 years are not at fault – Its the NDP in power for 3 months?.. I am noty political but this is pure nonsense and partisan shilling at its worst.
#72 Bytor the Snow Dog on 11.03.15 at 10:44 pm
Garth, when I read your posts, in my minds eye (ear?), I read your words in a much more basso profoundo voice than what I heard in that interview.
How is one to reconcile this?
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My sentiment exactly. Man with a harley, rippling six pack and firm buttocks you’d expect a vin deisel like growl.
But no matter we’re all unique in our way – maybe if Gartho was on steroids.
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#115 Londoner
Canadian houses shouldn’t be reserved for only people who are a citizens of the country. They are available to whoever has the means to purchase them and rightly so. Your sense of entitlement is overwhelming your sense of logic. Or perhaps your intention is to create an “us” vs “them” paradigm where you can justify your fear and hatred towards another group of people.
===================================
Wow. that’s quite an inference you made there based on nothing.
Please explain why someone who is not a citizen of Canada and who does not live in Canada would need a house in Canada. What purpose would this serve that non-citizen non-resident? I am eagerly awaiting your response.
@Londoner
“Only the data will show the path of future interest rates.”
The data is flawed: http://www.forbes.com/sites/perianneboring/2014/02/03/if-you-want-to-know-the-real-rate-of-inflation-dont-bother-with-the-cpi/
“A president typically has every incentive to encourage low interest rates in the run-up to an election, for instance, even though it could come at the cost of unpleasant and self-defeating inflation over the long run.”
Trump is quoted as saying Obama is telling the Fed to keep interest rates low, leading up to the election. So as not to pop bubbles on his way out.
He says as a business man low interest rates are great, but they are leading to asset bubbles.
If he were to win in 2016 he would definately up rates.
Cheers.
I should say : Trump would appoint a Fed chairman and board of directors that would side with him on raising rates.
Cheers.
Spiffinton Estates in Priddis.
Priceless.
#121 gut check on 11.04.15 at 8:44 am
@ #66 Nora Lenderby on 11.03.15 at 10:23 pm
“Otherwise we’d have to put up barriers to the free movement of capital and that’s not always worked out so well in the past :-)”
I would like to see people wake up from the brainwashing and realize that running around holding on to the belief that there are not barriers to the free movement of capital is actually hurting them even if they are not themselves entrepreneurs.
So, you don’t think we should be putting up more barriers to moving money around, then? I think we are sort of in agreement.
#84 Bby604 on 11.03.15 at 11:37 pm
#66 Nora Lenderby on 11.03.15 at 10:23 pm
#45 Bby604 on 11.03.15 at 9:06 pm
#60 Dave on 11.03.15 at 9:52 pm
What an ass you are ! Canadian soil should be for Canadians , not a place for foreign millionaires to Park their cash, Empty houses and streets are detrimental to our neighbourhoods and local business
“Oh dear, so you won’t like my conclusions then. …It’s clearly traditional for white Canadians to lose money on real estate, resort to foreign funds, Bank of Mom etc. People should be free to do whatever they want with their money, don’t you think?
Otherwise we’d have to put up barriers to the free movement of capital and that’s not always worked out so well in the past :-)”
——-
Wow did you hurt our back with that stretch?
Canada already has controls like this in place for farmland and the sale of resources and/ or land to foreign corporations or citizens , canada isn’t exactly a bastion for free markets and capital flows, What was your point in that incoherent rambling? And how did it relate to mine?
Ah, historical or literary allusions can be overdone. To others it may have been a parable with a point, but to you, dear sir, it was incoherent rambling. Sigh.
Let’s try again:
You complained about wealthy foreigners buying up houses, leaving them empty and damaging the way of life you have come to think of as “Canadian”.
I say you are doomed to continued disappointment, if we are lucky. I say people should be free to do what they want with their money.
That entirely skirts the discussion about “What is a Canadian?” Or of the houses and businesses left empty or barely used (in my town) by wealthy Canadians of United Empire Loyalist stock.
As for Mr. Dave being an ass? You are clearly the better judge of ass flesh than I am :-)
I heard on the Edmonton radio this morning driving to work some “rock-something” home builder’s advertisement stating in their words not mine “Think it’s bad for car dealers when their lot is full? Now imagine that for house builders! We have 30-50 houses that are built and that we need to sell!!! Make us an offer!!!”
It’s taken longer than expected, but those small cracks are getting much much bigger. I still see a lot of sticky pricing on MLS, but prices are dropping.
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I can’t believe people are willing to throw Bombardier under the street car. Those communists don’t play fair. Sending street car frames out of spec so the body doesn’t fit was timely given the C Series, after decades of R&D, is ready for sales. If the company becomes another Land Rover or Volvo and is bought by the Chinese communists it’ll be too much. Meanwhile, in Canada all they think about the price of housing and from non-existent foreign buyers. Only in Canada you say? pathetic
Man with a harley, rippling six pack and firm buttocks you’d expect a vin deisel like growl.
============================================
“rippling six pack” exchanged for kegger
Waking up to 84 degrees and partly sunny again. I can get used to this. I’m glad I’m warming up my sorry old as here in the Bahamas. The new boss just got his parking spot and keys to the executive washroom. Hope the hell he doesn’t sink the ship. He is going to need some good staff around him, but 50% woman of course. Hey wait a minute the bastards forgot transgender. OK now we have a real problem in the PM’s office. This is the end……………
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ar27ChFKqA
#141 Mike in Edmn
Same deal down here in Calgary as well.
The builders are all advertising……..”QUICK POSSESSION”……..new homes and condos everywhere………many have ads that say 30-50 to choose from……….
S.Bby on 11.04.15 at 11:42 am
#115 Londoner
Canadian houses shouldn’t be reserved for only people who are a citizens of the country. They are available to whoever has the means to purchase them and rightly so. Your sense of entitlement is overwhelming your sense of logic. Or perhaps your intention is to create an “us” vs “them” paradigm where you can justify your fear and hatred towards another group of people.
===================================
Wow. that’s quite an inference you made there based on nothing.
Please explain why someone who is not a citizen of Canada and who does not live in Canada would need a house in Canada. What purpose would this serve that non-citizen non-resident? I am eagerly awaiting your response.
===========================================
why was it allowed for canadians to be the largest buyers of US real estate??
BlackDog on 11.03.15 at 8:38 pm
Here’s my daily snark. Talk about hypocrisy. Forcing CRA to hand over to the IRS, resident Canadians on a platter – a witch hunt where the costs are being paid for by Canadian taxpayers, and clients of Canadian financial institutions(notice those higher fees lately and lost jobs), all the while “US ranks as top tax haven, refusing to share tax data despite FATCA.” Eventually, once all countries succumb to FATCA, USA will be the ONLY tax haven.
====================================
Please stop with the idiocy. Your situation is unfortunate, but you’re going to have to adapt. Either find the means to renounce your US citizenship, or use the US passport to your advantage. Being a “victim” in Canada is a highly competitive sport, but you just aren’t a strong contender.
Your statement about the US being “the only tax haven” doesn’t even make sense. The main adjustment other countries banks have made is that if forced to hand over the records of US Persons, they simply won’t take US Persons as clients any longer. For example my bank in Switzerland required me to make multiple legal declarations that I am not a “US Person” before I could open investment accounts. While my American colleagues here in the UAE have abruptly had their Swiss and Luxembourg accounts closed.
So no, safe havens for money will continue to thrive outside of the USA. Just perhaps, not as much for Americans.
From that standpoint it is perhaps too bad you have been classified a “US Person”, but then again many would consider having more than one passport an advantage. The banks have adapted, perhaps you should too.
Remember me? I thankfully sold my house up in Fort McMurray in Oct/14 for exactly what I paid for it 6 years prior. My dumba$$ room mate bought an average house up there in Sept/14 for $700k. Visited him last weekend, and here’s the highlights of what he had to say:
-After putting $50k of reno’s (or I should say repairs) into his house, his realtor figures it’s now worth $550k!
-He named off countless friends, co-workers, etc that he knew that lost their jobs, were forced to sell, leave, move in with someone else, etc.
-One of his friends has 4 houses up there. He lived in one (lost his job), his inlaws live in another (lost their jobs, so they all live in 1 house now), and the renters he had in his other 2 houses all lost their jobs. One group of renters all lost their jobs a couple months ago, but were scraping together rent money, but finally couldn’t survive anymore, so had to give him notice they were leaving. So the guy has 3 empty houses (remember, vacancy rate up there right now is 22%).
-I had a quick look at kijiji for what houses and bedrooms are being listed for right now, and there are a ton that are still in outer space, but for the most part (compared to 2yrs ago the last time I was looking for tenants to fill my house), I’d say prices have dropped by 25-40%. So I’m sure all landlords up there would be extremely lucky if they are even breaking even each month. I would guess only 10% or less (The ones that bought pre-2005) are though.
-And last but not least! My ex-roommate told me of another one of his friends that had to hand the keys to their house over to the bank. They figured it was going to be one of the first occurances of it up in Ft Mac, but the bank told them that they were the 8th clients THAT DAY to hand over their keys. That is insane to someone like me who lived up there for so many years in the good times.
Ever wonder why developers are using fancy English names to pander their wares to rich Asians?
Instead of “Golden Treasures of Solitude and Fortune” they call it “Barrington Walk”.
Barrington Walk is a 120 unit luxury Townhome complex in Richmond.
Further to my comment #142.
The mostly Asian owners who live at Barrington Walk affectionately call it “Immigration Prison”.
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/real-estate/narrows+between+condo+house+prices+greater/11490332/story.html?__lsa=3d2f-3f65
and
http://www.vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/barbara+yaffe+cmhc+arrives+obvious+conclusion+about/11490007/story.html?__lsa=3d2f-3f65
Crazy! I wonder when a significant number of people will decide to live elsewhere. It is very stressful to be a wage slave to your house/condo.
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So we now have a woman as Minister of the Environment and Climate Change. Good!
I guess that means the mentally challenged misogynist science deniers on this blog (you know who you are) will soon be saying…..
“But wait, she does not exist!”
Wow — check out the downward move on the Canadian Dollar right after Yellen announced that interest rate hikes next month are “a live possibility”.
Why is anyone surprised? — Garth
So are you thinking Irish style country wide real estate implosion or a more regional burst? 604 & 416 still immune to this or do you believe it’s just a matter of time before it starts to unravel on the wet coast and the centre of the universe see some serious declines in the market?
So….Obozo turns Keystone into a farce by insisting he’ll kill the now non existing pipeline……what a moron…nothing he won’t do for those donor dollars eh? He should have been declared an enemy of Canada.
Because the truth about climate change is that it is all a farce…..cooked up by those who hate Canada competing in the global market and supported by the truly ignorant and those paid to torture the statistics and a complacent media who hates Harper.
Look at the facts…..apparently the original science was correct…it’s global cooling…a natural phenom…not warming……and the tiny countries who vote in the UN who want a huge cash injection for ‘sustainable development’ are keeping this thing going with the help of the affirmative action troll & now elf king…Obozo.
http://www.express.co.uk/news/science/616937/GLOBAL-COOLING-Decade-long-ice-age-predicted-as-sun-hibernates
#98 AB boxster
eight weeks holiday,shut down at Christmas
Hans and Fritz are going to be working to pay for this invasion,forget about holidays.
Muammar Qaddafi, once said”Europe would be conquered without guns and swords,with Muslim migrants over running the continent. What is happening right now is hijra,or immigration jihad/Trojan horse. It is written in the Quran and is a powerful Islamic strategy to overwhelm countries and dominate. The majority of the migrants are coming from Sudan,Somalia,Pakistan,Nigeria,Iraq,Afganistan and a quarter from Syria. The vast majority are young men that where ever they go are involved in criminal activities and wreak havoc on the host population, rape is the number one offence as non Muslim women are looked upon as a piece of “meat”.Sweden is now the rape capital of the world. And let’s not forget about terrorism, what percentage of migrants are ISIS, 1%,5% who knows and do these people have passports,ID,are they being fingerprinted,impossible the numbers are too great. Coming from Africa what kind of diseases do they carry,HIV/Aids,polio, TB,typhoid,syphillis,cholera are they being screened coming into a country? What effect will it have on the welfare system, no education,no skills,can’t speak the language,and are unemployable. Imagine providing a million people with medical care,food, clothing,housing,transportation,interpereters,education,and other goods and services for the rest of their lives.And once refugee status is granted they can petition to bring in family members. And it will only get worse.
Doesn’t Junior want to bring over 25,000 by the end of the year??
I am appalled at how many lightweight rookies have been appointed in Trudeau’s cabinet. I was hoping for Trudeau jr. to at least have the good sense and respect for Canadians to pick candidates who, unlike himself, have stellar credentials and track records; this shows that he is not comfortable with surrounding himself with such people. What a terrible mistake. I wonder if these choices have been driven by his puppet masters, which now will have even greater influence and access, without any of the formal encumbrances. Do we know who Justin’s puppet masters are? (I sure hope Jean Chretien is not one of them…)
did not know much about bill morneau, i see his wife is billionaire old money family and he helped craft the orpp.
Re: #136 Marco on 11.04.15 at 11:50 am
Obama would be too ashamed to even think about running for re-election. Any chance America had of staving off third world status is now gone under Obama’s leadership.
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Insider trading reports indicate that, at last filing, Morneau still indirectly owned 2,066,480 common shares in Morneau Shapell, worth about $32 million, through a numbered company in Alberta.
he did very with his daddys company, he did oversee great growth however. (trudy saw something in common?)
it’s an hr business, not exactly high finance, but he must have a good business sense.
we see soon!
#161 Tony
After Roosevelt, U.S. presidents are limited to two terms.
Today was a happy day at the coffee shop.
With Justin as PM and harpo resigning, the entire crowd cheered like never before.
Today is a PROUD day for Canada.
I want 30% to 50% off on houses in Edmonton and Calgary, before I swoop in, buy, and rent out.
Can smell the fear.
MUAHAHAHAHAHA
Musing… I don’t have much, but I do have blood, and no history of cancer, stroke, diabetes, or heart failure in our family. Hell, I didn’t even get zits. I’m from along line of centenarians. In fact, my aunt was recently honored at her 106th bday.
Can I sell my blood for an RE downpayment? I would be willing to let go a pint every two weeks over a one year contract. Shall we start the bidding at $20k a pint? Who will buy, and who would broker the deal? I would need a qualified and experienced blood sucker. It is legal to sell hair, toenail clippings, portraits, and spunk, why not blood?!? I would use the money for necessities like shingles, central heating, walls, and a big screen. Plumbing to follow.
I will stay healthy and pure for the right buyer. I don’t drink, smoke or eat meat. I am very fit and G Clooney handsome. Can I get a manufacturing grant? Shelter is a necessity and so is blood. Don’t blow all your hard earned cash on a house, save some for my blood. What good is an expensive sfh if you are in and out of hospital? Buy my blood. Bidding wars accepted. My wife is also open to surrogate pregnancy if you are too busy shopping to pop out your own kid. Or, I could do the fertilizing for you, if need be. We also have kittens.
Signed BC Interior, the new Alabamy
(Only two hours from 604 on our privately maintained highways)
#37 Bottoms_Up on 11.03.15 at 8:38 pm
Explaining the NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer
Tuesday, October 29, 2013
good tool for planners climate smart!
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/explaining-noaa-sea-level-rise-viewer
===================
…”At the edge of southern Louisiana sits Port Fourchon—the hub that services 90 percent of all deepwater oil drilling activity in the Gulf of Mexico. The only road leading to and from this major port is the Louisana-1 Highway. Up to 1,200 trucks a day travel in and out of Port Fourchon by way of the LA-1, carrying supplies and materials for rigs and platforms in the Gulf.”
=============
47 Blacksheep on 11.03.15 at 9:28 pm
Isn’ the Earth System in positive feedback …> the stable hot state of past climates.
climate refugees
http://www.jameslovelock.org/page24.html
Filmed July 2005 at TEDGlobal 2005
https://www.ted.com/talks/martin_rees_asks_is_this_our_final_century?language=en#
Heard on the news yesterday some Chinese investor wants to build a one thousand homes development in Britannia Beach. This originally was to be a four thousand home development but got scaled back for some reason. I can’t imagine where there is enough land there to build 1,000 homes let alone 4,000. But it could all just be a pipe dream.
#152 Lea on 11.04.15 at 12:33 pm
from you link…
87 per cent of the 21,600-plus concrete condo units scheduled to be finished by the end of ***2018*** have already sold.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver said Tuesday sales of apartments reached 1,543 in October 2015, an increase of 21.7 per cent compared to the 1,268 sales in October 2014, and an increase of 40.5 per cent compared to the 1,098 sales in October 2013.
price of an apartment property increased 11.4 per cent from October 2014 to $425,800.
——————–
the fire is spreading from shf to condos too.
van vacancy rate is near zero – get in line if you want to stay in 604
750k over ask in n van is about par for the course these days
#135 S.Bby on 11.04.15 at 11:42 am
Please explain why someone who is not a citizen of Canada and who does not live in Canada would need a house in Canada. What purpose would this serve that non-citizen non-resident? I am eagerly awaiting your response.
__________________________________________
For the same reasons Canadians buy real estate in other countries. Whatever the reason an individual has, it’s none of your business.
#154 Marlene from Victoria on 11.04.15 at 12:45 pm
I guess that means the mentally challenged misogynist science deniers on this blog (you know who you are) will soon be saying…..
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just as soon as the brainwashed cult following gore disciples science illiterates start talking about record EVER ice in the antarctic, growing arctic ice etc
Well there you have it folks. The complete list of the new cabinet sworn in on Wednesday. See you in four years! :)
Oh did I say were all doomed? :)
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau
Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale
Agriculture Minister Lawrence MacAulay.
Foreign Affairs Minister Stephane Dion.
Immigration Minister John McCallum.
Indigenous and Northern Affairs Minister Carolyn Bennett.
Treasury Board President Scott Brison.
Government House leader Dominc LeBlanc.
Innovation, Science and Economic Development Minister Navdeep Singh Bains.
Finance Minister Bill Morneau.
Justice Minister Jody Wilson-Raybould.
Public Services Minister Judy Foote.
International Trade Minister Chrystia Freeland.
Health Minister Jane Philpott Health.
Families, Children and Social Development Minister Jean-Yves Duclos.
Transport Minister Marc Garneau.
International Development Minister Marie-Claude Bibeau.
Natural Resources Minister James Carr.
Canadian Heritage Minister Melanie Joly.
Revenue Minister Diane Lebouthillier,
Veterans Affairs Minister Kent Hehr.
Environment Minister Catherine McKenna.
Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan.
Employment Minister MaryAnn Mihychuk.
Infrastructure Minister Amarjeet Sohi.
Democratic Institutions Minister Maryam Monsef.
Sports Minister Carla Qualtrough.
Fisheries Minister Hunter Tootoo.
Science Minister Kirsty Duncan.
Status of Women’s Minister Patricia Hajdu.
Small Business Minister Bardish Chagger.
I especially like Transport Minister Marc Garneau as he has some really long logistics work in his CV.
Garth I checked the menu at Wendys and didn’t see any shit on the list?
Wendys
1792 Alexandria Dr, Lexington, KY 40504
(859) 276-4214
http://www.viewmenu.com
That was last week. — Garth
At the swearing in today did anyone notice if 50% of the singers where women? Just sayin!
Oh in case any body doesn’t know at the end of the swearing in ceremony everybody sings Oh Canada!
#171 Londoner on 11.04.15 at 2:22 pm
#135 S.Bby on 11.04.15 at 11:42 am
Please explain why someone who is not a citizen of Canada and who does not live in Canada would need a house in Canada. What purpose would this serve that non-citizen non-resident? I am eagerly awaiting your response.
__________________________________________
For the same reasons Canadians buy real estate in other countries. Whatever the reason an individual has, it’s none of your business.
____________________________________________
Yep agreed, I’m in the Bahamas now home shopping, staying at a very nice residence renting with option to purchase. I have six months to decide. Unless they kick my ass off this Island. Oh my god I just realized I’m a foreigner in a foreign land looking at purchasing a home in which I only intend to occupy a portion of the year!
Shhhhhhhh please don’t tell on me , they think I’m American, Oh hell Americans are foreigners here too!
Happy with this new government so far. Negative neo-cons might disagree but who cares now that …content disabled… is no longer in power.
#169 S.Bby on 11.04.15 at 2:16 pm
Heard on the news yesterday some Chinese investor wants to build a one thousand homes development in Britannia Beach. This originally was to be a four thousand home development but got scaled back for some reason. I can’t imagine where there is enough land there to build 1,000 homes let alone 4,000. But it could all just be a pipe dream.
———————————
plenty of room going up the hill there.
good dirtbiking too.
#173 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.04.15 at 2:30 pm
-Foreign Affairs Minister Stephane Dion.
LOL the same guy that ran the Liberal party into the ground a couple years back? Why is this guy still in politics? Actually it’s perfect. Can’t wait to watch him (and all of them) screw up.
I guess it makes complete sense when you are going to have a wishy washy and weak foreign policy that will enable everyone to walk all over us while we throw our allies under the bus.
MF
I know, and respect, Dion. One of the few men of principle I have encountered in public life. — Garth
Bottoms_Up:
Just saw the well worded post you responded to me with on Thursday of last week concerning the kid’s policies.
I still disagree with 90% of his policies but I thank you for the well thought out response.
MF
#149 Ft Mac House Guy on 11.04.15 at 12:22 pm
What you are going to see happening in Ft. Mac with 22% vacancy is landlords dropping rents to lure renters as what happened in other one resource towns when things turned ugly. Those who bought in 2005 or before as you say who have positive income will put rents down and those who bought at the peak or earlier will be highly subsidizing renters or have none at all and forced to turn the keys over to the bank. Then watch prices drop like a rock. I see easily 50% in very near future.
#159 what a lightweight cabinet! on 11.04.15 at 1:27 pm
I am appalled at how many lightweight rookies have been appointed in Trudeau’s cabinet. I was hoping for Trudeau jr. to at least have the good sense and respect for Canadians to pick candidates who, unlike himself, have stellar credentials and track records; this shows that he is not comfortable with surrounding himself with such people. What a terrible mistake. I wonder if these choices have been driven by his puppet masters, which now will have even greater influence and access, without any of the formal encumbrances. Do we know who Justin’s puppet masters are? (I sure hope Jean Chretien is not one of them…)
_____________________________________________
Give him a chance to see what a menagerie he has created, logic and reason will kick in and he will start the slaughter of the cabinet. They will make some majors mistakes that will cost his credibility in the world view. He will adapt and assimilate more predator blood into the zoo.
I know, and respect, Dion. One of the few men of principle I have encountered in public life. — Garth
Point taken. His flaw was his inability to have that quality resonate with the voters then. I’m still surprised he is around.
MF
#146 Keith in Calgary on 11.04.15 at 12:14 pm
#141 Mike in Edmn
”Same deal down here in Calgary as well.
The builders are all advertising……..”QUICK POSSESSION”……..new homes and condos everywhere………many have ads that say 30-50 to choose from……….”
Next, the “reduced signs” will be coming on. Saw this all happen in the 90’s. Selling at cost or less just to get rid of the inventory.
Two years ago TD suggested it was a good time to lock into a 5 year fixed at 3.8% … evidence that crystal balls are free and often worth as much.
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2013/08/27/be-bold/
… projected by TD Economics , we might be at a point of inflection where locking into a fixed 5-year rate could actually provide interest cost savings relative to a VIRM over the next 5 years. Locking in at today’s special 5-year rate at 3.8% …
#125 YVR on 11.04.15 at 9:26 am
When I told my dad I was investing on my own last summer he was ecstatic.
Couple days later he came back with a stock recommendation he had read about: Valeant Pharmaceuticals.
I looked at the chart and saw that VRX had gone up none stop all year, and was in nosebleed territory.
Good thing I did that.
Vancouver and Toronto real estate = VRX in early August.
MF
#172 bdy sktrn
just as soon as the brainwashed cult following gore disciples science illiterates start talking about record EVER ice in the antarctic, growing arctic ice etc
——————–
I know listening is not really your forte, but let me explain a theory about expanding sea ice in the antarctic…
With the melting ice sheet there is a large amount of fresh water that flows into the sea. This fresh water then floats on the colder more dense sea water without mixing thoroughly. Fresh water also freezes at a slightly warmer temperature than salt water resulting in a large thin sheet of sea ice. Nothing in comparison to thick multi year sea ice.
Dealing with climate change is not about one side or the other. It’s about understanding.
The real crazies are screwing us whether the climate changes or stays the same.
Seeing through the lies will only help us understand.
Name calling and taking sides only perpetuates the elites (the real crazies) twisted agenda
#176 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.04.15 at 2:41 pm
At the swearing in today did anyone notice if 50% of the singers where women? Just sayin!
#177 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.04.15 at 2:42 pm
Oh in case any body doesn’t know at the end of the swearing in ceremony everybody sings Oh Canada!
*******************
And still, in 2015 for Pete’s sake, we’re supposed to sing “in all thy sons” command. Geesh!!!
#115 Londoner on 11.04.15 at 6:32 am
#45 Bby604 on 11.03.15 at 9:06 pm
“Canadian soil should be for Canadians , not a place for foreign millionaires to Park their cash, Empty houses and streets are detrimental to our neighbourhoods and local business”
_____________________________________________
Canadian houses shouldn’t be reserved for only people who are a citizens of the country. They are available to whoever has the means to purchase them and rightly so. Your sense of entitlement is overwhelming your sense of logic. Or perhaps your intention is to create an “us” vs “them” paradigm where you can justify your fear and hatred towards another group of people.
————
#115 Londoner on 11.04.15 at 6:32 am
#45 Bby604 on 11.03.15 at 9:06 pm
“Canadian soil should be for Canadians , not a place for foreign millionaires to Park their cash, Empty houses and streets are detrimental to our neighbourhoods and local business”
_____________________________________________
Canadian houses shouldn’t be reserved for only people who are a citizens of the country. They are available to whoever has the means to purchase them and rightly so. Your sense of entitlement is overwhelming your sense of logic. Or perhaps your intention is to create an “us” vs “them” paradigm where you can justify your fear and hatred towards another group of people.
—————-
A Canadian is Canadian no matter their heritage , and by your logic I guess our water and resources should go to the highest bidder aswell ? How about our pesky environmental standards that foreign corps deem to stringent, It’s not always about selling to the highest bidder. It’s not entitlement it’s about future generations
Bill Morneau for Canada’s Finance Minister. What an appropriate pick because the higher tax bill from losing an annual $4,500 TFSA contribution.
We will be morning for years our hundreds of thousands of dollars income tax free.
RE:
No the’ve just gone to their fall back position of, “Ok, she exists, but a man had nothing to do with it.”
For those wondering who is pulling the strings in the background on Son of Trudeau. Look no further the PM Wynne. She will want payback big time for lending her Liberal machine to SoT for this election.
@ #139 Nora Lenderby on 11.04.15 at 12:00 pm
So, you don’t think we should be putting up more barriers to moving money around, then? I think we are sort of in agreement.
———————
yes, on that point we are.
BTW every time I try to code for the italics it messes up… what am I doing wrong. See here:
is this going to come out in italics?
well halelujah! I did it!
and then I spelled Hallelujah wrong. :(
You can post this on the fridge. I’m very confident.
The loonie is heading for most likely mid .50 cent range.
This will keep realestate propped up. Its going to look cheap for foreigners….
There a chance as a snowball in hell that rates are going up for years in Canada. Last time the Canadian Toilet paper dollar went way into the tank we actually produced things here. Autos, fishing, logging, manufacturing. Find me something made in Canada?!
There is NOTHING to pull us out out of this swan dive. Oh yes….we still have real-estate probably going sideways for the most part.
Here’s a piece that I totally agree with John Johnson.
Second one down.
http://moneytalks.net/article-and-commentary/michael-campbell/mikes-interview-of-the-week/16158-oct-31st-editorial-a-interview-of-the-week.html
“Spiffington Estates”
Change that to Spliffington Estates, build it on Vancouver Island, and you’ve got a, er, growing market again.
Id also like to add all the blog dogs here championing free movement of capital…..how does a empty home or apartment floor do anything to benefit the neighbourhood its built in? its detriments far out-weigh its benefits, dont be led blindly into the argument of free markets, they are not free in canada. try to buy a car in cash, or start a dairy farm or import export beer/wine. dont kid yourself the only people benefit from our open real estate market are the house floggers.
I see no problem with a ban on RESALE housing to foriegn citizens, they can purchase new builds to their hearts content.
#127 GTA on 11.04.15 at 10:01 am
Sooner or later everyone sits down to a banquet of consequences…Largest outflows of capital in the world are happening to Canada. Good summaries are here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-02/money-flooding-out-of-canada-at-fastest-pace-in-developed-world
and here:
https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/canada-experiences-fastest-cash-outflows-in-history-nathan-mcdonald.html
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Yes, and I’ll be making it even worse next week just a little bit after another visit to my banker.
Trudeau is giving important jobs to folks based on their gender, and he’ll likely kick things off with a 1 Billion dollar taxpayer funded “investment” into Bombardier. That 10 Billion deficit he promised will be 20 Billion in no time. If he takes any advice from Wynne – call it 30 Billion.
I’ve recently nuked the balance on my mortgage, and am rebalancing my investments. I have plans to heat my home in a non traditional fashion. I have a 3 year plan to get off the Ontario Hydro grid. I have purchased very fuel efficient vehicles (paid cash). I have no consumer debt.
All Canadians need to pay attention to what is most important in the years to come. While the lost praise Trudeux for his 50% female cabinet ministers, you need to watch the employment rates, GDP numbers, foreign investments (if any!) in Canada etc.. If you live in Ontario – you had better be twice as vigilant if you happen to have something to lose.
Trudeux so far sounds a lot more like an NDP’er than a classic Liberal – if he uses Federal revenues to bail out Bombardier – any questions I had will be answered.
“A prudent person foresees danger and takes precautions. The simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the consequences.” – Proverbs 22:3
\#192 Jake Stanton on 11.04.15 at 3:30 pm
Bill Morneau for Canada’s Finance Minister. What an appropriate pick because the higher tax bill
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like bill-more-now? is that his plan for our tax bills?
Garth, I disagree; the Fed will not increase rates. The market has never recovered and all reports to the contrary are simply lies. Don’t you find it odd both the stock market AND the bond market are at record highs? These market are supposed to work in opposite directions. The markets are being manipulated.
I know. Aliens. — Garth
@Tony, post #161:
Why would that be so? The United States recovered from the worst financial crisis since the 1930s, and that’s thanks to the EXCELLENT leadership of the Obama Administration. it’s still recovering, while much of the world flounders in the aftermath of this financial crisis. Looks to me like FIRST CLASS leadership, something the rest of the world needs more of.
#170 bdy sktrn
Exactly why we are leaving Van in January.
For those suggesting that Canadian houses should be for Canadians, what do you think of Canadian snowbirds leaving their Palm Springs and Florida homes empty?
While I understand your frustration, perhaps you should consider writing to your elected officials and asking them to close loopholes in taxation and figure out how to structure immigration so that they are more invested in growing the Canadian economy.
#189 SWL1976 on 11.04.15 at 3:09 pm
#172 bdy sktrn
With the melting ice sheet there is a large amount of fresh water that flows into the sea. This fresh water then floats on the colder more dense sea water without mixing thoroughly. Fresh water also freezes at a slightly warmer temperature than salt water resulting in a large thin sheet of sea ice.
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pure comedy gold right there at best.
unbelievable hogwash to keep the funds flowing.
tell us the energy sink causing this freeze of water that supposedly just melted because of warmer air (further south), the very same air that is passing over , and freeing the very same water it just melted???
idiocy of the highest order.
heat transfer/fluid mechanics/thermodymanics fundamentals are in complete opposition to this bunk.
@Panhead, post #103:
I don’t understand. With prices the way they’ve gone, I figured there would be a thermonuclear explosion of for sale signs, by greedy people all trying to cash in their winning lottery tickets. I thought by now there would be lineups of people all eager to sell extending all the way to William’s Lake of even farther. What am I missing here, is there something in that wet coast air that completely annihilates any greed or desire to get rich? We Easterners just don’t get it, never did, and probably never will.
#191 Bby604 on 11.04.15 at 3:23 pm
A Canadian is Canadian no matter their heritage , and by your logic I guess our water and resources should go to the highest bidder aswell ? How about our pesky environmental standards that foreign corps deem to stringent, It’s not always about selling to the highest bidder. It’s not entitlement it’s about future generations
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Houses are not natural resources and by your logic I guess shares of Canadian companies should only be owned by Canadians? Your argument is absolutely about entitlement.
I know listening is not really your forte, but let me explain a theory about expanding sea ice in the antarctic…
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btw – thanks for explaining a theory which was hastily created when the last theory proved spectacularly incorrect . even a couple of years ago when it was first floated it was still foolish anti-science.
still is.
#190 LP on 11.04.15 at 3:19 pm
#176 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.04.15 at 2:41 pm
At the swearing in today did anyone notice if 50% of the singers where women? Just sayin!
#177 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.04.15 at 2:42 pm
Oh in case any body doesn’t know at the end of the swearing in ceremony everybody sings Oh Canada!
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And still, in 2015 for Pete’s sake, we’re supposed to sing “in all thy sons” command. Geesh!!!
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Should it be in all thy sons, daughters, he-she’s, she-hes, Lesbians, Gays command? Did I miss anyone?
Oh shit the PETA group will be after me now for forgetting our four legged, two winged, aquatic, slithering, ………………………oh to hell with it I give up.
Stick with “in all thy sons” I can remember that one. Funny when we were in school I can still recall learning America the Beautiful. I was raised in several states during the 60s. Public schools I attended sang the national anthem and recited the pledge of allegiance every morning. I can still sing the American national anthem and recite the pledge of allegiance on sight, Oh my god I was brainwashed.
Yellen hinting at negative rates if economy goes bad.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/04/usa-fed-yellen-rates-idUSN9N0X501620151104
My thoughts are that it is going to go bad before it gets better.
Call me Mr. Negative.
Smoking Man you have been very quiet? You have been hitting the books again haven’t you? Your schooled now with your new job. Went to dinner last night at a Casino here in the Bahamas. A place called Seafire, highly recommend if you come here to order the Red Wagyu 14 oz cut. Excellent! The wife and I went out with friends who know the Island well. My wife put $100 on a roulette table and walked out with $1000 after a few bets. She is a brilliant mathematician and can do some math in here head that even makes me spin. Jesus I hope she doesn’t become a Mrs Smoking Man.
#165 Pin (Head)
“With Justin as PM and harpo resigning, the entire crowd cheered like never before.”
LOL…..the protest vote effect was apparent when almost no one except 3000 Liberal hacks and Canadian media showed up for the crowning of The Head Liberal Goon.
If Trudy was at all ‘a man of the people’ then more people would have showed up…..there was more people piling into the local shopping mall than this sorry display of who was really behind the soft coup by a leftist media cabal of Hate Harper barking seals.
So Trudy paid back the old time hacks by appointed the worst dead heads of all time to his ‘cabinet’……Climate Change Dion and his Husky ‘Kyoto’….really? ‘Spend it all Goodale’…..you gotta be kidding…..is this patronage from the onset or what?
What everybody’s asking is will the next Governor generals now begin to be picked from the loyal squad of shrill CBC Hate Harper bobble heads….like Clarkson and Jean were…awarded patronage for loyal service?
Will the weeping Mansbridge finally be crowned with a 42 million dollar a year allowance for Hating Harper louder than anyone for so many crazy years?
I don’t think Trudeau’s cabinet choices are all that bad overall. Except Justice Minister Wilson-Raybould, who is a massive s.35 activist. I wouldn’t count on any substantial new mines, logging, or pipelines in BC for at least another two decades if she pushes hard for an expansive application of Tsilqot’in Nation.
Dion looks like he’s aged two decades since he was at the helm of the party. Is he a smoker?
#208 Doug in London on 11.04.15 at 5:00 pm
@Panhead, post #103:
What am I missing here, is there something in that wet coast air that completely annihilates any greed or desire to get rich? We Easterners just don’t get it, never did, and probably never will.
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i used to rent from a doug in london back in uwo days.
what we all have in common is lack of anywhere decent to go with all our re riches.
until we can be beachfront in the bahamas and world travelling full time we will stay put thanks. we know millions more are coming to unload to when the time comes.
pocketing my sub-2M re gains would , like most 604’ers, not make up for having to live east to the cascades.
also : i never felt richer than when i landed in van in nov and it was a tshirt day, and i realized that i was still in canada and could live here permanently. ( i had less than 40 bucks in my account!)
life is way way better in the warmer climate (take that greenies!)
#209 Londoner on 11.04.15 at 5:02 pm
#191 Bby604 on 11.04.15 at 3:23 pm
A Canadian is Canadian no matter their heritage , and by your logic I guess our water and resources should go to the highest bidder aswell ? How about our pesky environmental standards that foreign corps deem to stringent, It’s not always about selling to the highest bidder. It’s not entitlement it’s about future generations
____________________________________________
Houses are not natural resources and by your logic I guess shares of Canadian companies should only be owned by Canadians? Your argument is absolutely about entitlement.
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haha what do houses sit on?
tractorman..:I’ve recently nuked the balance on my mortgage, and am rebalancing my investments. I have plans to heat my home in a non traditional fashion. I have a 3 year plan to get off the Ontario Hydro grid. I have purchased very fuel efficient vehicles (paid cash). I have no consumer debt.
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did i mention advantages of bc – heat is cheap ng. very cheap. don’t need much with a completely uninsulated house. very cold day and it;s 77F in here , maybe $50/mo over the summer baseload
gasoline was 0.62/l is blaine wa yesterday when i filled up the tank of a thirsty suv, it sure is nice to ride in comfort.
the grid is 500x cheaper than buying and running PV panels in BC weather (i use both)
#209 Londoner
Houses are not natural resources and by your logic I guess shares of Canadian companies should only be owned by Canadians? Your argument is absolutely about entitlement.
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You “guess”?
You like to put words in people’s mouths…
I always felt sorry for Mr. Stephan Dion. I believe it was after some messed up scandal that Good ole’ “Duffy” reported about him that cause his political downfall.
I also think that it was because of this scandal that SH eventually gifted Good ole’ with a senatorship.
We all know what happened there right?
It takes some guts to put yourself back under public scrutiny and I value his service.
I hate to say this, and I am almost ashamed to admit that today I felt a certain level of pride in the new government. They are very diverse, and just as accomplished as any I have seen in the past. I have to also say that I felt hopeful with “Twodreau.”
His family is adorable. I wonder if sophie will keep the charming blond locks? The children are beautiful.
I felt like the walk up to Rideau Hall was signalling a new , young and vibrant era. A breathe of fresh air. I hope to God it lasts past 2016.
#207 bdy sktrn – You truly are a piece of work.
BTW you really think your advantages to living in BC (warm climate) really apply to the entire province???
Having trouble seeing past your front porch???
Thought so.
heat transfer/fluid mechanics/thermodymanics fundamentals are in complete opposition to this bunk.
Really???
You of all people should understand, or perhaps you just talk a big game
Ice melts in the summer and freezes in the winter
#211 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.04.15 at 5:08 pm
#190 LP on 11.04.15 at 3:19 pm
#176 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 11.04.15 at 2:41 pm
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Should it be in all thy sons, daughters, he-she’s, she-hes, Lesbians, Gays command? Did I miss anyone?
Oh shit the PETA group will be after me now for forgetting our four legged, two winged, aquatic, slithering, ………………………oh to hell with it I give up.
Stick with “in all thy sons”
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Dear Crao
How about “all of us” or “all our hearts”? See, not so hard…even for you.