“Wrong again Garth.” That was a refrain on this pathetic, mongrel blog yesterday, as all the xenophobes in VYR woke up to the latest yellow journalism of the local (dying) newspapers. “Your myopic politically correct thinking continues to blind you from the truth,” a fan wrote. “Those of us born and raised here have known the truth all along, but you’ll never admit you were wrong. You’ll just attack the methodology.”
What’s the big deal? What caused the Sun and the Province to turn over their front pages to a massive anti-Chinese assault? Here, look at this…
And here’s the story. A local Dipper politician (David Eby) pulled land records for 172 sales in one small area of Vancouver (on the ultra-expensive Westside) and handed them over to a researcher for analysis. By the way, 172 sales represents 0.52% of the 33,116 residential properties that changed hands last year, and closer to 0.4% of the number expected to trade in 2015. In other words, it’s statistically meaningless.
But that never stops a good story. So Eby’s guy then looked at the names of the 172 buyers, screening them for ‘non-anglicized’ Chinese names, which is a racist little thing some people do in Vancouver to try and ferret out Asians who might be more Asian than the vast number of locals of Asian heritage. Of course just looking at names does not reveal if the buyers are Canadian citizens, landed immigrants, permanent residents or the children and spouses of people working abroad but investing here.
To David Eby’s shock and delight (the media now loves him) the researcher concluded 70% of the names looked like they belong to people from China. And to further rattle the city, it was revealed that 82% of the purchases involved mortgages – so obviously the banks have been in collusion with the billionaire communists. (Even though it kinda squelched the meme of crooked Chinese investors arriving with bags of cash.)
To recap: an analysis of a handful of sales in one area very popular with Asian buyers, representing one half of one per cent of all Vancouver sales, found seven in 10 have names that might suggest they’re possibly from China, but could actually be Canadian residents or citizens. Wow. Front-page stuff. But it didn’t stop there. Dig this bit of reportage from one of the biggest China-bating media outlets in Canada, the Globe and Mail:
“Mr. Yan (the researcher) acknowledged he could only deduce that buyers were purchasing with money from mainland China. But, he argued, it’s not much of a leap, considering the median income for 25- to 55-year-olds with bachelor degrees in Vancouver is $41,981. Those dependent on the local job market couldn’t compete.”
The average price for a detached property on the Westide of Vancouver – where the richest of the rich have always made a home (like Toronto’s Bridle Path or Montreal’s Westmount) is $2.8 million. Does anyone expect a person with a ‘median income’ and a BA to be in the market for a house like that? Or that a mansion-buyer would actually ‘have a job’ as opposed to being a business owner, entrepreneur or beneficiary of old stock money?
Well, the feeding frenzy continued Monday.
“Unless somebody tells me that it’s suddenly possible to make a ton of money selling cellphones at Parker Place Mall in Richmond,” Mr. Yan said, erasing any lingering and generous doubt that he’s an idiot, “this situation is problematic for locals.”
At this point it’s worth recalling that when looking at the market as a whole – not 172 sales in a particular hood – the BC Real Estate Association has said foreign buyers account for about 5% of deals, with the locals chiming in for the other 95%. The Van real estate board itself puts the number at 4% (I published its stats here a few weeks ago). The BC government agrees with this assessment. And across the ditch the Victoria board lists offshore buyers at 1.6% of total sales.
Now, in fairness, the argument supporting the view that this small group has screwed things for everyone has some validity. It goes like this: when foreigners buy expensive digs it makes everybody spend more money in a ‘trickle-down’ effect that ends up jacking the prices for crap houses on the downtrodden east side to over a million. Then you get whiny moist Millennials having sad rallies and sending out #donthave1million Tweets, cries for politicians at all levels to ‘do something’ about the barbarians at the gate and reporters cruising around Dunbar looking for yellow dudes in shiny suits.
Why would reasonable, normal, employed middle class people actually care about fools buying $5 million houses over in the most affluent part of town? Because, if they own real estate, it might make theirs worth more. Because, if they don’t, they want someone to blame. Because, if they sell it, they want buyer panic. Because, if they finance it, they score. Because, if they write about it, they matter.
Vancouver’s a great city, working tirelessly to be otherwise.
279 comments ↓
Acknowledge it Garth.
Otherwise the blog Is going to have some serious credibility issues.
You’re right. I acknowledge this is a bogus story and a meaningless piece of data. — Garth
Hey Garth my dogs neurotic – kinda like homeowners in Vancouver but not as pompous – cheers
“Vancouver’s a great city”
I’ve never understood the appeal. Victoria is very nice though and you can live in a mansion for the price of a Vancouver crack shack.
Garth, your efforts at reason and logic are noble but it will not change many people’s minds. The above article was designed to add fuel to what is already burning in YVR. Resentment and Fear. People rarely want to blame themselves for whatever mess they find themselves in…we like to point fingers. The classic herd mentality. Blame the proverbial “other”.
Bought by “students” and “homemakers” with cash, no mortgage. Sounds like money laundering to me.
I have certainly registered properties in the name of my wife. No laundry involved. — Garth
Question about mortgages: Is it safe to assume that mortgages are granted only to Canadian citizens and permanent residents of Canada?
Our experience in Canada is that our U.S. credit rating did not transfer across the border and that a SIN number that start with a 9 stunts your credit rating.
The Sun article says that 70% of the financing comes from Canadian banks, so is it safe to assume that that 70% of the buyers have at a minimum permanent residence? (ergo, most of the people purchasing the houses are not mainlanders)
well one thing is for sure. Locals making 70K per year cannot afford a 1 M mortgage.
What about the other story of the banks increasing mortgage limits for new residents?
So what? — Garth
Blaming 52 chinese homemakers for one of biggest housing bubbles in the world. We’re really scraping the bottom of the scapegoat bucket now.
I have certainly registered properties in the name of my wife. No laundry involved. — Garth
With all due respect Garth, your properties make money. Vancouver has multimillion dollar homes sitting vacant while companies put fake pumpkins in the yard to make them look lived in. Many social problems result.
Sad, sad symptom of the dumbing down of our the average person. Scapegoats arise when the collective mentality is low. But has it ever been any different? I grew up with a father who loved to imitate East Indian convenience store owners. For years Americans were the targets; now it is the Chinese. Perhaps we really are a befuddled, backwater nation, deluded into thinking we were something more.
The Sun and the Province (heck, most of the Postmedia rags) ceased being real newspapers a long time ago.
Coming up on 10 years since you called a housing top….
Admit that…
Read the post yesterday? I’d call that post-top. Coming to a city near you. (BTW, this pathetic blog is only seven years old.) — Garth
#AndYetItMoves… #InOtherNews”Peril”…
[Reuters] – Beijing’s covert radio network airs China-friendly news across Washington, and the world
A Reuters investigation spanning four continents has identified at least 33 radio stations in 14 countries that are part of a global radio web structured in a way that obscures its majority shareholder: state-run China Radio International, or CRI.
http://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/china-radio/
real estate board stats are always bullcrap unless they support the argument one is trying to make.
I grew up in West Richmond. The homes in the neighborhood I grew up in I would estimate to be 80-90% owned by Chinese immigrants. The K-7 elementary school that I went to that had 250+ students now has less than 40 because the majority of these foreign owned, $2mil + houses are sitting empty, no people, no kids. The local rags’ data may be somewhat inaccurate but the reality is not exaggerated. The causes are indisputable and the result is a ghost town.
Last I checked the bank didn’t give diddly squat where the money comes from. Your cell phone job or your grandmother or an off shore numbered company in Macau. Its all the same to them.
Hi Grath,
Sure it is very small sample but there are many other semi-research that point to the same result.
“The Van real estate board itself puts the number at 4% ”
Same people that publicly admit do not collect any data on the subject.
“The BC government agrees with this assessment”
Are you really agreeing with Christy Clark that also says high real estate price is the ugly side of great economy that we have in BC around recession time.
http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/home-prices-rise-quickly-in-toronto-and-vancouver-even-faster-in-some-suburbs-1.2610943
You always ridicule the trickle down effect yet never say why?
What annoys me is government simply putting their head in the sand and say sorry we do not have any data but we think its 5%.
If the government want to actually have answers why simply use the BC hydro number to at least figure out the vacant property number. I don’t care if these houses are owned by Chinese billionaire or Syrian refugee. The BC hydro would show which houses and or apartment are vacant for most of the year. These house bought by people who don’t live here, don’t pay taxes or contribute to society in a meaningful way. This is the source of the problem. I am sure a lot of Vancouver Condo, which are terrible investment now are bought by foreign money NOT FOREIGN INVESTMENT as well.
The population has not exploded recently or the land hasn’t shrunk neither, yet its harder to find a descent place to buy or rent. And higher interest rate will not make either one any easier.
just my angry two cents. Cheers and thanks for writing and educating me everyday regarding finance side of things.
People in B.C. gotta quit smoking that B.C. Bud. Their thinking is all whacked out. Imagine what it will be like if JT follows through on legalizing it. Bad enough that alcohol is legal.
Thanks for quoting me Garth. Although you disagree with me, I’m surprised you had the guts to quote my post.
For that, you have my once reluctant respect.
Lea to your question regarding house mortgages in Canada you must at least have permanent residency, wife is from the US and the banks wouldn’t even touch her with more than a $500 Visa prior to having permanent residency.
Garth, yes there are some flaws with the methodology, but I would argue that the sample size is larger than most polls use, and the most accurate to date.
I don’t have a dog in this fight, but obviously people on the ground are noticing this, and I respect their opinion, more than any stat.
No poll has 172 responses. — Garth
This whole Chinese buyer thing seems like a waste of time …. like who cares who bought the expensive houses?
The truth of the matter is that China at this point is stuck some place between slavery and industrialization. All subsidized by us at our own expense.
Whether it’s ethical or not, it is good that we can offset our current account (abysmal) with the money transferred from abroad and sunk into bricks. At the expense of all those Chinese people in Apple factories living in absolutely inhumane conditions.
Every time I see a “second generation rich” Chinese boy driving an Audi, my heart overfills with joy. That’s the ultimate wealth redistribution. Shame that we don’t make Audis in Canada.
Stop whining and move on. There are many places in Canada where real estate is dirt cheap. Move there and find something to keep you busy. Look at Niagara Falls, for example. The southernmost point on the northern shore of lake Ontario. Dirt cheap. Close to the border, great infrastructure. What keeps you there?
And, while at it, I believe Chinese people are not dumb. They can see pretty well that the CPC folks are taking advantage of them. This is gonna end sooner or later and those houses will change ownership.
Vancouver: “HAM is real. Look, here’s some evidence. It doesn’t cover the entire city market, but it does provide a glimpse of the situation in better neighbourhoods. Future studies of different key areas of the city will show similar patterns.”
The rest of Canada: “Even though we mockingly asked you for some evidence to back up your claims, which you then provided, we knew all along that we never planned to accept your data (tee-hee-hee), and besides, clearly this mythical HAM of which you speak does not have an equal investment pattern in all of the as yet unstudied areas of the city, therefore you are racists! Hang your head in shame!”
Vancouver: “… But you said…”
The rest of Canada: “Silence!” ( the sound of whipping ensues…)
The report is consistent with what I’ve been saying all along. And that is, credit, not “foreign money” has been driving the Vancouver RE market. With the “foreigners” actually bringing very little “money” to the table.
Banks lend against collateral, not generally income, when it comes to mortgages. After all, if the payments stop arriving, they can merely foreclose upon the house, sell it, and be made whole. So all this talk of needing to qualify based on income really isn’t all that meaningful.
wife is from the US and the banks wouldn’t even touch her with more than a $500 Visa prior to having permanent residency.
This is because a Visa is typically an unsecured form of credit. A mortgage, by definition, is secured credit, with the borrower pledging a charge against the property (called a mortgage) in exchange for the advancement of funds.
In the wise words of Rob Ford, they* “work like dogs”, so is it any surprise that the (on average) lazy locals are being gentrified out?
If the usual gentrification of hoods like Regent, Moss, or Alexandra Parks is a Good Thing, we cannot resent the gentrification of Shaughnessy, Kitsilano, Dunbar without being guilty of a double standard.
*this includes citizens, permanent residents, and fresh off the boat tiger moms alike
Londoners have dealt with this issue with stride. Locals have been locked out of Maryleborne and Mayfair for decades now, yet the economy is wickedly dynamic and the envy of the world, thanks in good part to foreign money.
I have certainly registered properties in the name of my wife. No laundry involved. — Garth
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Oh no, not laundry again!
Too bad, so sad and late to the party.
Published April 18th 2013
http://www.vancourier.com/community/vancouver-special/west-point-grey/west-point-grey-the-neighbourhood-at-a-glance-1.380242
Forty-odd years ago, Louise Weinberger and her husband bought a West Point Grey home for $16,000. Its value has since soared to $1.6 million. Weinberger said wages at the time were about $8,000 a year and the house needed a lot of work, but its clearly been a solid investment in whats become one of Vancouvers most affluent neighbourhoods, bounded by Blanca and Alma streets between West 16th and English Bay. – See more at: http://www.vancourier.com/community/vancouver-special/west-point-grey/west-point-grey-the-neighbourhood-at-a-glance-1.380242#sthash.XXYm2rll.dpuf
#15 pathcontrolmonk on 11.02.15 at 7:12 pm
I grew up in West Richmond. The homes in the neighborhood I grew up in I would estimate to be 80-90% owned by Chinese immigrants. The K-7 elementary school that I went to that had 250+ students now has less than 40 because the majority of these foreign owned, $2mil + houses are sitting empty, no people, no kids. The local rags’ data may be somewhat inaccurate but the reality is not exaggerated. The causes are indisputable and the result is a ghost town.
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I’ll believe that from a local.
Garth,
I know this is off today’s topic but I would really appreciate your opinion on the Winnipeg housing market. CMHC identifies it as one of the most risky cities in Canada. Do you agree? How overvalued do you think it is?
Who cares who’s buying the property? When the crash/bubble burst or whatever comes, everyone will be affected. So those on the sidelines now moaning about not being able to afford houses should be so lucky they haven’t bought in at the peak. Plus they can get their dream homes (like in Calgary) for a discount.
Garth,
Harper also thought he was right and continued with a loosing campaign to the end. Contrary to his belief, It turnout out that 70% of the population are not sheeple.
Are you trying to make your blog irrelevant?
Because I disagree with you? Funny. — Garth
I think we should check out Mr. Yan too. Doesn’t sound canadian. Whats he hiding?
Garth, I’m going to put my 1980s home on the market in North Van… only one 4 in the address… I’m thinking of asking $5,000,000 and open to offers… it does have good feng shui, however…
Given the recent recognition of the near-lack of income verification and really any type of vetting in Canada’s mortgage market, witness Home Capital, Home Trust, and others, whose defence consisted of “following CMHC guidelines” but somehow did NOT include telephoning applicants’ place of business, to confirm details like salary, position, or whether the company even existed, before advancing funds, or granting insurance on the mortgage.
I’m inclined to believe that similar standards exist at the big banks’ screening of mortgages for ‘recent Canadians’, where additional barriers such as language, culture and time difference might further dissuade what minimal efforts might be made to verify income verification.
Now the story that RBC is lifting limits on mortgages for recently-arrived foreign buyers?
Yeah, this is going to end badly.
Average wage in Vancouver area is well over $60,000 a year.There is no way in hell you can have pittance wage for that for such a high cost of living.Housing prices reflect the wage to sustain these prices.Its just common knowledge.
CRA is cracking down on HML ( housing money laundry) they are serious this time as they asked for help. If you work as contractor, REA, mortgage broker, flipper watch out. Process it was simple, buy an old house, tear down, rebuild with cash, sell with cheque, profit is money laundry no tax either.
I am a foreigner who has purchased property in a country other than Canada, and the existing RE bubble in the particular city where my condo is didn’t occur because of foreigners, but rather locals brainwashed by the banks, brokers and ‘gubmint……..one program in particular, aimed directly at the lower income middle class is called “minha casa, minha vida”……etc…….
So while I disgaree with the premise of the article, the real reason that RE in YVR has been out of sight price wise for decades is not due to the last few years of spending by foreigners, but by the sudden rash of money from the mid eighties when HK was going to go back to China.
Same symptom, different cause.
Sorry Garth, I just can’t buy your spin on this.
This study is small but well done and credible.
And you usually slag real estate boards – except, it seems, when they support your views like the VRB does, you say.
I will continue not to have faith in real estate boards, but in studies done by professionals whose methodology is open, not a secret.
While not solely responsible by any stretch, foreign buyers have been the accelerant making the housing bubble that much more dangerous to all.
DELETED
When you realize housing has become a hidden tax, your world will change. If you have to spend 75% of your after tax paycheque to cover housing costs, and the remaining 25% on living expenses, you are playing a zero sum game, where you have no money to invest, guaranteeing a lifetime of debt slavery.
If you only spend 25% of your after tax paycheque covering house and living expenses, and can keep 75% of it, you now have money to invest, you could be quite rich someday if you invest it well.
Real estate right now, is the biggest scam I’ve ever seen. Near 0% interest rates, loose lending policies, and record immigration is the perfect recipe for a housing bubble of all bubbles.
If you lived in Vancouver, you would know that the study only verifies what any resident could tell you. We see it with our own eyes and the stories we hear are not second- or third-hand. This is not fear, speculation or gossip.
And it’s not only on the West Side. A member of my family recently sold a property in a not-great part of Burnaby. The buyer? An off-shore Chinese investor who paid $200,000 over asking.
With each sale, there are ripple effects. As the West Side empties out, those sellers buy farther East, as do those sellers. Each time, the buyer is flush from a big sale and buys a property or builds a house in a less expensive part of town. Each time, a renter is evicted somewhere along the line, and average price is pushed a little higher.
I generally agree with your views on real estate and there is no doubt that locals are also stoking this fire. But foreign purchase is playing a big part as well.
I blame people from Tuvalu for Vancouver’s high housing prices. Sure only Vatican city has less people then this country of 11000 people but hey they might flood out if sea level gets to high.
My wife is a soon to be specialist physician and we can’t afford a house on the westside…..the hospitals are having recruitment issues the last 5 years.
Something is wrong with this picture. In previous generations this was possible. It has to be foreign investors.
If a family making $400,000+ is priced out of this market we have bigger issues in Vancouver!
With many overseas buyers purchasing their home through numbered companies, and/or having bought a Canadian passport, defining “foreign ownership” becomes problematic if not impossible.
Below is a thoroughly researched article from the G&M one month ago. It details the number of Chinese buyers, how they avoid paying taxes and how this trend is decimating communities. A great factoid in there: “There have been no prosecutions for tax evasion of people in Vancouver who claim to be non-resident or claim China as their primary residence…”.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/the-real-estate-beat/foreign-investors-avoid-taxes-by-buying-real-estate-in-canada/article26683767/
Sure, go ahead and dismiss YVR’s sad reality as racist. As someone else suggested, all non-Chinese are free to move somewhere else in Canada.
When the CRA goes after tens of thousands of YVRers who pocket cash from renting illegal suites, then we can worry about a few dozen people who bought properties and deferred transfer taxes. If you’re worried about government revenues, stay focused. — Garth
#227 For those about to flop… on 11.02.15 at 2:32 pm
…I will just have to become a full time blogger and annoy you lot! Better pray for me Nora!
Hmm…I’d better pray for all of us, dear.
Good luck with the surgery…nothing trivial, I hope :-)
#23 lee bow
Stop whining and move on. There are many places in Canada where real estate is dirt cheap. Move there and find something to keep you busy. Look at Niagara Falls, for example. The southernmost point on the northern shore of lake Ontario. Dirt cheap. Close to the border, great infrastructure. What keeps you there?
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I live here and its not dirt cheap if you have no job,
You know what we have a lack of ?
Jobs good paying that is but thanks to NAFTA they be gone now.
Now here comes TPP going to get interesting .
#22 young & foolish on 11.02.15 at 7:26 pm
This whole Chinese buyer thing seems like a waste of time …. like who cares who bought the expensive houses?
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this is an excellent point. It really doesn’t matter who bought them all – what DOES matter, however, is that they are sitting vacant, driving up prices for people who actually want to live in the area.
The use of homes as safe deposit boxes is creating an increasingly severe crisis in many major cities across the world.
It would be good if our host here could acknowledge that fact, at least.
Did you lose out on your bid for a $3 million house? No? Then it’s none of your business. — Garth
I downloaded a new keyboard, no more mistakes. The bastard predicts my words perfectly.
Watch this. The connetic molecular theory.
USA road trip tomorrow, thank fking God…
Working from home sucks, Mrs smoking man in full blown menopause compounded with general female phycosis, pissed shes not coming on this trip, it’s a living hell right now.
WooHoo..free for awhile…
I may never comeback. It would take just one 300 lbs 80 year old black woman with a bad case of acne and poor hygine that says have a nice day sir…
That would be it..I would fall in love on the spot.
Wiffy would lose the F&$*-*%: asshole for ever.
I would love to see some serious analysis of the “trickle down” effect, but I guess it would be difficult to do.
In related news from down-under the Chinese (looking) buyers appear to have disappeared from our auction rooms:
http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11538906
Impossible to know if these are a result of the recent changes requiring tax ID numbers for a sales (from home country if non-resident), because it’s now harder to get money out of China, or whether it’s just all anecdotal.
Ahem the first poster is not me…I’ve never been interested in that meme.
I read somewhere today that another set of academics are doing a study on home occupancy (or lack thereof) in Vancouver using BC Hydro data. I think the aim is to determine what percentage of homes in Vancouver are unoccupied.
Does anyone have any more information about this study? I don’t think it’s out yet, but it would fill in another piece of the puzzle, and presumably the methodology would be more robust than this study.
Already done, and as useless as this one. Do you want the government to force people to stay home and turn on lights? — Garth
#39 D.E.N.I.A.L. on 11.02.15 at 8:07 pm
the existing RE bubble in the particular city where my condo is didn’t occur because of foreigners, but rather locals brainwashed by the banks, brokers
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Yep, I have too many friends who are 8% down with borrowed money, on ‘investment’ real estate that they couldn’t afford without 3% interest rates. I don’t think any of them have considered the reality of starting off life $100k underwater on a house.
minha casa, minha vida = You’re richer than you think
Easy solution to any debate, let’s collect proper and thorough data…..
I have certainly registered properties in the name of my wife. No laundry involved. — Garth
—
Bought for cash only?
Always. — Garth
I was going to post a rant on War on Cars/Transportation with the new HOV lane tolls coming to Toronto’s roads. Cars will become only for Party Elites and Sunshine Listers. They want up to 100% of our income to be spent on taxes.
I’m surprised that no one from Vancouver has pointed out who David Eby is….
A lawyer that used to work for the BC Civil Liberties Association (constantly berating the Vancouver police for their “tactics” in the drug infested Downtown eastside which made for excellent free publicity).
Now he’s a politician for the Provincial NDP ( he won his riding running against the Premier Christy Clark….she had to run in a safe riding in Kelowna to get elected).
He’s a bit of an opportunist with a socialist bent never passing up a chance to get his name “out there” in the media.
Careful what ya wish for folks. David Eby will have all of us living in social assitant housing Co-ops next to subsidized Skytrain stations.
He doesnt give a rats derriere about offshore money and what it may buy.
David Eby dee bee dee
https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CCcQFjABahUKEwjEr7CL_vLIAhXDN4gKHUyoB7E&url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FDavid_Eby&usg=AFQjCNEfpn2SIB9Cd5pURqZ6lqBaII1c5g&sig2=g6S8UBQnBZeGmcI6dmut0w
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, my suspicion is that Vancouver house prices are crazy because the bikers have found a way to use houses as a way to launder drug money. If you can keep the mortgage payment under $10,000 a month you can still pay it cash and end up with a “legit” asset. No one else in their right mind would pay $1,000,000 for a tear down in a sketchy neighborhood.
I read this blog from time to time, and I must say, Garth, you have a lot of insightful things to say, but you are losing your credibility by continually downplaying the affect of Chinese money in the local real estate markets.
I can tell you I grew up in West Vancouver and graduated in the early 90s. I was lucky enough to buy a house in 2009 when the market dipped very close to where I grew up.
Virtually all of the houses in my area are owned by people of Chinese origin that weren’t here 10 or 15 years ago. Homes are being torn down and rebuilt all over the place, and the listing agents all cater to buyers of Chinese origin.
When I grew up, there were families and kids in the parks nearby. Nowadays, nothing. I really don’t know if people are living in these houses or not, but it is very quiet (except for the construction). Sometimes I see what appears to be four generations of family in the house, other times the house appears vacant.
Whether these people are Chinese Canadian, recent immigrants, or what have you, again, I don’t know, but I have my suspicions. However, as a person in the Vancouver business community, and with holdings in development property, I’m highly doubtful they are earning their money here.
Maybe you should spend some time here with people in the market, and with developers who are pre-selling condos, and maybe you should walk these neighborhoods to give you some context of things. Money from China is 100% affecting things in Vancouver.
You want a wall? — Garth
Xenophobes have no imagination.
So you get the “rage rage house prices really high because Asians.”
Someone says “if Asian name (in Vancouver!), must be Chinese mainlander.” uh huh.
“Dis here is ev-ee-dense,” shout the xeno crowd en masse.
RealFlogger says “Last chance you buy house because Asians. Get in now or never.”
Local says to self “I haz grate get rich quick scheme. Me am buy super expensive house and wait for bigger fatter offer from Asian invaders.” {cackles while rubbing hands together}
House sits there empty, waiting, waiting, ….
This is easily as plausible as anything the xenos come up with. And is very likely true for a lot of those empty houses.
Blame people with exotic names for pricing milennials out of the market, but keep quiet about the old white folks who own the rest of those houses. Obviously those people with their Anglo names worked for those sick housing gains, unlike those “others”.
Thank you, Garth, for not letting the racist fearmongering go unchallenged.
#11 Alberta Ed on 11.02.15 at 7:08 pm
“…..The Sun and the Province (heck, most of the Postmedia rags) ceased being real newspapers a long time ago……”
___________________________________
Absolutely correct.
The Sun (news)paper chain is nothing more than an ideological bullhorn for former PMO mouthpiece Kory Teneycke and his lunatic fringe of anti-government, anti-tax, anti-labour, Tea Party wannabe’s aimed at the ‘Ford Nation/Harper’ voter base of less-fortunate, less-educated, easily distracted, easily manipulated citizens, who do not think critically, favour simple solutions, and are easily convinced to vote against their own self interests by well-financed special interest groups with the money to do so through deceitful, divisive, unfounded, inflammatory propaganda and other means.
Oops.
Key board not that good. Try again.
The only thing preventing BOC rate cut in Dec is a Fed spike.
Long USDCAD
Owner occupation of owners of $3 million homes: housewife and student. Wake up Garth, I’m losing my faith in you to be credible.
Who cares? Get a grip, dude. This is a handful of people in a neighbourhood you can only afford to drive through. — Garth
I don’t understand, why did David Eby use a researcher from China, I mean his surname is Yan, so he must be from there. Don’t we have researchers here that he could give the work to.
Obviously being facetious.
With today’s world being so globally interdependent, it is amazing that someone actually has such closed minded thinking in regards to names and citizenship.
I couldn’t give a rat’s ass whether “Chinese are buying all the houses” or not. (And, as Garth says, they’re not.)
Get over it. Their economy produces actual goods affordably, living standards are rising there and they have the money.
More power to them!
The real danger, and the real cause of unaffordability, is the expanding supply of money and credit.
Sigh. People full of envy and fear. Greed running rampant. Rumours abound. The local rag doing its best to lead the mob.
Sadly this is an experiment with predictable results; even more hatred, delusion and loss of reason.
If people would almost rather die than admit they have lost money on a house, they would certainly prefer to blame a minority for the bubble rather than their own cupidity.
#33 not 1st on 11.02.15 at 7:46 pm
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Exactly. Why do we have an off-shore reporter (Mr. Yan) investigating this story?
I’ll try again, perhaps my last attempt to post this went accidentally into the spam folder… ?
I agree with the poster who asks, “Who cares who is buying all these expensive properties!?”
It doesn’t matter who – it matters that there are so many vacant units being purchased for astronomical prices.
Using homes like safe deposit boxes is hurting many major cities. I believe the London, UK business association is petitioning the government to step in as the vacancy phenomenon is destroying the city.
the vacancy problem, surely, cannot be up for debate.
Garth – what is your take on foreign earned money coming into Canada? Overall good? But with the kick that these expensive housing neighborhoods are considered poor because they pay the least amount of taxes?
How do we fix that? Under what basis should we write to Trudeau and claim that e.g. man of the household is earning money overseas and sending money to wife and kids in Canada? They pay a disproportionate amount of income taxes.
Then again, it was stupid BC’ers who voted to repeal the harmonized sales tax… i.e. a consumption tax.
Now, in fairness, the argument supporting the view that this small group has screwed things for everyone has some validity.
if someone brings $2.3 million into Canada and buys a house, that is going to have an impact on home prices. If a hundred do it then it’s going to have a significant, disproportionate impact. This is capital flight which benefits Canada – $2.3 million was injected into the Canadian economy, the owner has to pay property taxes. Maybe maintenance.
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/10/06/spawn/#comment-402135
across the kitchen table I heard that it is in fact hundreds
The foreign investment on the west side of Vancouver is something I have lived with daily over the last decade or so.
I work predominantly on high end houses 5m/12m price range and so I have benefited from the development of this area and although I would love to live there it was never a realistic goal in the first place.
I have completed hundreds of houses in this time and if I had to guesstimate what percentage were Chinese owners/ buyers I would say around 25%.
I guess what I am trying to say is that I think from what I have seen that the number of foreign buyers( some of them were from other parts of Asia) that the percentage is a lot higher than the 5% that gets bandied about but most of the problem lies with cheap credit and the fact that this bubble has gone on so long.
I have worked on Caucasian people’s houses that owned pre-2000 and have since bought and sold 2 or 3 more times and have moved up the ladder and I have got to see more luxurious properties as the market rose.
Several developers cater their builds to Asian buyers ( wok kitchens -gold accents – fend shui friendly )
They even pay to change the address if the feedback is not positive but in the end they sell the house to the highest bidder regardless of ethnicity so the cycle can start again.
Garth,
I think we are missing a few essential things, one of them being the actual facts. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but we do not agree on the facts because they have not been properly accumulated.
However, 5% at the margin can have a very significant effect, if it is the case.
As I have mentioned before, we should market more agressively to foreign buyers while the prices are obscene. When oil was expensive we let Nexen and other properties in the patch go. Similarly, when metals were high we let those assets go at a premium.
Now that real estate is dear, we should sell as much of it as possible before the inevitable downturn. All the better if foreign wealth is transferred here, that is until Canada runs out of land…
Some interesting facts:
2015 World population 7,378,000,000:
http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
2015 China population 1,404,880,000
China cancels 1-child rule, adopts 2-child rule:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-child_policy
“Rich Chinese Angry Over Cancelled Immigration Policy:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/rich-chinese-angry-over-cancellation-of-canadian-immigrant-program/article17269390/
“…leaving behind the 65,000 people on an enormous backlog of applicants…”
“Richmond’s Chinese-Only Sign Debate ….”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/richmond-s-chinese-only-sign-debate-leads-to-poster-crackdown-1.3082090
Connect the dots, Garth.
They’re taking over, right BC Guy? Did you enjoy your last post? — Garth
Already done, and as useless as this one. Do you want the government to force people to stay home and turn on lights? — Garth
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Exactly. I live in a neighbourhood with many (white) retirees. Their garbage output is nil. These people are not spending much money into the local economy but we are not up in arms about them. At this point in time, unless you are a multi-millionaire looking to buy in Vancouver, you really have no right to complain about foreign ownership of these houses.
#62 Kreditanstalt — “Get over it. Their economy produces actual goods affordably, living standards are rising there and they have the money.”
From somebody who can usually be relied upon to bring up the Austrian Economics party line on malinvestment, such a comment about the current Chinese economy is pretty funny. Malinvestment on a leviathan scale, using debt that ain’t ever going to be repaid.
Go to Kerisdale and spend 10 minutes there and tell me that it is only a small portion of the market being affected by offshore investment and money laundering.
That’s amazing. You can look at an Asian person and tell where they came from. Are they labelled? — Garth
Not sure I understand the problem with foreigners overpaying for Canadian houses.. I bought a beach condo in Florida for $369k in 2000. Sold it in December 2009 for $1.1 million. I didn’t care who the buyer was or where he was from. Just took the money and ran. He offered it back to me 3 years later for $600k.
I understand jealousy if you don’t own one to sell and feel left out. I see the secret being though of knowing when to sell and take advantage of the situation. Do you really care if it’s a Chinese or American or Cuban or German buyer? Take the money and run. Buy it back a couple years from now for much less and laugh at them.
Hate the game not the players.
Similar news in London, England.
Expensive parts of town have been “bought up” by mysterious foreign (not Chinese, amazingly) oligarchs and other appallingly rich people. According to Her Majesty’s Press*, shockingly many houses are allowed to rot while their owners ponce about the planet doing whatever oligarchs do. Elsewhere poor Londoners can’t find affordable housing.
While these stories may be true, correlation doesn’t imply causation.
*Anyone who quotes the Daily Mail as a reliable source of any information, including today’s date, is a few slices of spam short of a sandwich.
Um, 16 years ago median income earners were in the market for those homes. That’s the problem.
In Dunbar and Shaughnessy? Think not. Of course the ‘middle class’ hood of Leaside in Toronto now averages $1.6 million. Put on your big boy pants, Vancouver. — Garth
Did you enjoy your last post? — Garth
Oh, there he goes again. See ya.
Hmm….there has to be a solution to this Asian invasion, so say the extremists here.
I suggest that all the same anti-Asian climate change alarmists who say that the arctic ice is melting put their money where their mouth is.
Put all that melted ice west of Vancouver. We’ll build an ocean between Vancouver and China. That should stop the Asians!
But of course, you can’t do that, can you, you idiots! Because the ice is not gonna melt and make an ocean to deal with all your lies about HAM.
Coincidence? I think not.
I think not.
Are their loans backed by CMHC?
All high-ratio loans are insured. — Garth
” This is a handful of people in a neighbourhood you can only afford to drive through”
The disconnect is between that statement and what people are seeing. I suspect people are really complaining about how easy it is to buy canadian citizenship so that it makes garth argument seems valid.
There are foreigners (no citizenship) and recent “canadians” who don’t get labelled foreign.
Remind us how easy it is ‘to buy Canadian citizenship.” — Garth
#56 TurnerNation on 11.02.15 at 8:30 pm
I was going to post a rant on War on Cars/Transportation with the new HOV lane tolls coming to Toronto’s roads. Cars will become only for Party Elites and Sunshine Listers. They want up to 100% of our income to be spent on taxes.
…..
You’re up against an irrational religion. Taught from grade one by teet sucking stupids.
The commies are intrenched at 3 levels of government.
Salivating at the prospect of stealing more of private sector money.
Its going to get ugly for those who have not hedged.
People are angry with the current Canadian real estate situation in Vancouver and require a scapegoat. However people need to focus on the true culprit about why the high real estate is happening and that is CMHC. The insurance coverage provided by CMHC make the banks have no skin in the game because their lending is backed by the Canadian taxpayers. Therefore the banks (with the help of the govt) have become irresponsible and its causing a cancer on our society. Significantly cut down the CMHC insurance level and house prices would sink overnight.
All high-ratio loans are insured. — Garth
Ah that’s a problem, canada backs the mortgages of foreigners. So as a tax payer i have to cover their asses. I never our country was so stupid.
Lenders are insured, not borrowers. I agree about the stupid part, however — Garth
The average price for a detached property on the Westide of Vancouver – where the richest of the rich have always made a home (like Toronto’s Bridle Path or Montreal’s Westmount)
————————–
is the bridle path or westmount fully 50% of the land mass of it’s city?
Neither are the three hoods surveyed. — Garth
#86 Smoking Man on 11.02.15 at 9:38 pm
———————————-
You might be right on Long Branch and your upside down batman, but you couldn’t be more wrong on the universe and on climate change.
Face it: you’ve been schooled by the schooled. That must hurt.
Remind us how easy it is ‘to buy Canadian citizenship.” — Garth
Canada’s investor class immigration program let in tens of thousands. They flash some cash (prove wealth) and blam you’re an instant canadian.
Remember the 65,000 invester class immigrants who’s applications were stalled and they sued the government? They were from china.
The program is over. It required a sizeable investment to be locked up, not a cash flash. — Garth
Garth
I hereby bestow on you the Socrates blogger of the month award for your endless attempts to educate the great unwashed…..from Socrates himself, “I cannot teach anybody anything. I can only make them think”
I wanted to remind folks complaining about the Chinese home buyers in Vancouver. A little history lesson here for the dumbed down folks. The Chinese helped build the British Columbia railway Between 1881 and 1884, as many as 17 000 Chinese men came to B.C. to work as labourers on the Canadian Pacific Railway. Point being does that make these folks Canadian? Canada is an immigrant country and we are all immigrants from one country or another.
The program is over. It required a sizeable investment to be locked up, not a cash flash. — Garth
That programmed has morphed into something a bit different, so it’s not totally dead.
In the end it did give tens of thousands of people canadian citizenship by ‘buying’ into that original program. Those are the people that posters here are talking about.
#88 Bottoms_Up on 11.02.15 at 9:46 pm
#86 Smoking Man on 11.02.15 at 9:38 pm
———————————-
You might be right on Long Branch and your upside down batman, but you couldn’t be more wrong on the universe and on climate change.
Face it: you’ve been schooled by the schooled. That must hurt.
….
Dude, please make me respect you..tell my you got a big bet out there, positioned to profit from this gigantic bull shit of man made climate change.
I can dig that..but if your just a idiotic follower you deserve what’s coming your way.
Garth,
You spend a lot of time on your blog dissing Realtors and their statistics so I find it interesting that in this case you are trumpeting the stats from BCREA and the Van and Vic RE boards. What incentive would the boards have in downplaying the number of foreign buyers in Vancouver? Is it possible they want the foreign buyers and fat commissions to continue?
I live in Vancouver. I am also a licensed Realtor and a renter. I do not begrudge foreign buyers wanting to come to Canada to build a better lives for themselves and their families. As I see it, they want what every Canadian wants. It also gives me great pride to walk around Vancouver on Canada Day and see Canadians of every shape, size and colour celebrating our national holiday together in peace. That said, as Canadians, I think it is ok to ask “what is the price of admission to our country?”
I also think the amount of foreign money speculating in Vancouver RE is insane. Here is an article from Business in Vancouver on the subject. 91% of wealthy Quebec foreign immigrants have Vancouver addresses! https://www.biv.com/article/2015/6/bc-immigration-goes-negative-wealthy-migrants-floo/
You also need to consider Macdonald Realty’s stats that over 70% of their buyers of high end properties in Vancouver are from mainland China. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/the-real-estate-beat/data-reveals-chinese-buyers-making-mark-on-vancouvers-luxury-housing/article25932534/
Are you really wanting to believe the BC Real Association on this? The globe article you link to is telling when it asks about BCREA’s methodology.
I’m happy to send you more links on this. Vancouver is the Chinese money laundering capital of the world. Not according to me but the Province newspaper: http://www.theprovince.com/travel/Chinese+money+launderers+snap+Vancouver+real+estate/11262931/story.html
The sad reality is that we cannot make an informed decision because our government keeps no statistics on foreign ownership. Yes, low interest rates and house lust are also behind house prices here but the true rate of detached house appreciation is also being under reported by the BCREA. Detached houses in YVR have quadrupled in the last 15 years. Same house, unrenovated has doubled and doubled again.
I appreciate the motive behind your wanting to counter the “yellow peril” fear mongering but foreign ownership is playing a role here. Because our government is asleep at the wheel and has no stats, we have no idea how big a role which makes it impossible to have a grown up conversation about it. Unfortunatley, there will be a lot of new home owners hurt badly here if this market ever comes to its senses.
#5 Marius on 11.02.15 at 6:57 pm
Bought by “students” and “homemakers” with cash, no mortgage. Sounds like money laundering to me.
I have certainly registered properties in the name of my wife. No laundry involved. — Garth”
Garth, does she still iron your shirts?
Relax!
The cure for high prices, is high prices.
When Real Estate prices inevitably correct, increasing affordability (the current crisis), we will have a crisis due to some homeowners having negative equity.
Then, of course, people will call for the government to ‘do something’ about this imagined crisis.
Bank on it.
According to Remax, the number of single sized detached sales in the west side in 2014 was 1765 so the sample size is actually pretty decent if you’re just taking into account the west side which is where all of the samples were taken from.
Speaking anecdotally, I personally know some non-mainland Chinese home buyers in the west side who have ridden the property ladder and gotten big down payments from the bank of Mom and Dad who may have Heloc’d some of that money. Call me and my asian wife racist, but my eyes, ears and gut tell me most of the money in that particular neighborhood is coming from China.
I’m not sure that you can call the methodology of extrapolating place of origin by analyzing names racist – it’s not unique to this research.
#46 Nora Lenderby on 11.02.15 at 8:16 pm
#227 For those about to flop… on 11.02.15 at 2:32 pm
…I will just have to become a full time blogger and annoy you lot! Better pray for me Nora!
Hmm…I’d better pray for all of us, dear.
Good luck with the surgery…nothing trivial, I hope :-)
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Thanks Nora ,yes the surgery is well needed but at the same time I was thinking about getting lip filler so I can pout like a proper Vancouverite about how tough it is to live here. :0
here is an interesting house sales data from Calgary…
http://calgaryherald.com/business/real-estate/year-over-year-mls-average-price-drop-in-october-biggest-of-2015
this is an excellent point. It really doesn’t matter who bought them all – what DOES matter, however, is that they are sitting vacant, driving up prices for people who actually want to live in the area.
The use of homes as safe deposit boxes is creating an increasingly severe crisis in many major cities across the world.
It would be good if our host here could acknowledge that fact, at least.
“Did you lose out on your bid for a $3 million house? No? Then it’s none of your business. — Garth”
________________________________________
No – but that 3 million dollar house should only be a 1 million dollar house, and the current 1 million dollar houses should be $300,000.
THAT’S the point and it is very much everyone’s business. We aren’t talking about the price of gold or lear jets here – boo hoo you can’t afford a Picasso – we’re talking about HOUSING. There are not alternatives to HOUSING.
What would you say if a city’s water became contaminated and Dick McNasty flew his people in from on high to buy up all the bottled water within a 50 km radius? Would you say that was fair? Would you say it was none of the townspeople’s business?
Garth great blog lots of great simple easy to understand financial advice thank you. but I’m going to have to agree to disagree on this one. how many times did you pullout victoria real estate data that supports your position and use it as an indicator for foreign ownership #’s in vancouver? Now we have similar data (granted far from a comprehensive study but something that could definitely be extrapolated to represent the city as a whole) and you refute the studies conclusion? Get on the ground and stop gazing at us through a narrow sighted telescope from your eastern perch and you will see the truth which is accepted fact in van. Furthermore, you disdain the anti-chinese commenting but set up your blog posts to fan the flames. Curious.
Bottoms up, universe is shrinking, science is bull shit. We got fiber optics, Kevlar, silicon chips from revered engineering from crashed space ships. These idiots with equations on the black board don’t know shit. But because the herd has been trained to respect them, they get it. They can’t fool me.
They still can’t figure out the UCC..
You need to come from my home town to understand it.
You want see a real life Nectonite.
Click my name..note the big head, and no ears…
Hey Garth,
There are actually mathematical models out there to calculate the margin of error on these polls……too last to look them all up, but look at this website for a simple rule of thumb,
http://www.robertniles.com/stats/margin.shtml
“The margin of error in a sample = 1 divided by the square root of the number of people in the sample..
So a sample of just 1,600 people gives you a margin of error of 2.5 percent….”
So for 172 people the margin of error would be, 1/√172 or slightly higher at around 7.6%
Not the point. A sample of 172 has been extrapolated to the entire YVR market. Otherwise it would not be front page ‘news’. — Garth.
#102 gut check on 11.02.15 at 10:10 pm
THAT’S the point and it is very much everyone’s business. We aren’t talking about the price of gold or lear jets here – boo hoo you can’t afford a Picasso – we’re talking about HOUSING. There are not alternatives to HOUSING.”
Here’s an alternative, albeit an extremely sad, but free one
https://gma.yahoo.com/family-survives-week-week-airport-living-091922616–abc-news-topstories.html
I get it, YVR is a nice place to live, but if you cannot afford to live there – move. There are a lot of places in this world where I would like to live but cannot afford too.
Okay, this confirms the stupidity of the average person if these commentators take a bit of racist media hype for fact.
#6 Lea: I always wondered that about immigrants and the credit market, too. When I arrived in Canada from the U.S. as a grad student I could barely even get a cell phone or a basement apartment above board. Only Rogers could check my U.S. credit bc they had some cross border relationship with AT & T. I always think about that when people claim immigration will prop up this market. Certainly not recent immigrants, IME.
#74 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 11.02.15 at 9:07 pm
Garth,
I think we are missing a few essential things, one of them being the actual facts. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but we do not agree on the facts because they have not been properly accumulated.
However, 5% at the margin can have a very significant effect, if it is the case.
As I have mentioned before, we should market more agressively to foreign buyers while the prices are obscene. When oil was expensive we let Nexen and other properties in the patch go. Similarly, when metals were high we let those assets go at a premium.
Now that real estate is dear, we should sell as much of it as possible before the inevitable downturn. All the better if foreign wealth is transferred here, that is until Canada runs out of land…”
Excellent point, and similar to what the Yanks did selling off everything to the Japanese in the 80s, 90s and then standing back while it plummeted…
Somebody please explain how it’s “xenophobic” to say “foreigners are driving the real estate market” in Vancouver?!?
Anybody who has been to a few open houses in Vancouver knows who’s buying houses here. There’s nothing racist/xenophobic about discussing this.
Going on and on about how it’s all BS and that it’s “locals” (average household income = 85K) driving $3 million tear-downs (for a 50ft lot) makes you seem crazy. The banks are backing “homemakers” and “students” on these mortgages?! Seriously… get a grip.
My wife and I are 1%ers and we can barely afford a house in Vancouver. Remember, this is a city with virtually no industry. Where is all this money coming from? Everything, points to offshore money.
I love Canada but one thing that Canadians are unfortunately good at, is jumping on the racist bandwagon when it comes to blaming something for their problems.
Maybe BC wants to open a Chinese internment camp now?
@BobC 79:
I will assume you are a Canadian citizen.
Can you please describe how you reported your capital gain on the condo in Florida, what forms you used and how it was taxed by the CRA?
Garth: please retain this poster’s IP and email addresses. I would like to do my country a favour and report this case to the CRA if anything in this poster’s reply will sound fishy to me. I want my country to get its fair share of the gains its citizens realize outside its borders.
An article in the weekend Globe and Mail described the devastating effects on Vancouver neighbourhoods:
“Vancouver house-buying frenzy leaves half-empty neighbourhoods”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/vancouver-house-buying-frenzy-leaves-half-empty-neighbourhoods/article27056534/
The article also identified the cause:
“Real estate agents and accountants told The Globe and Mail some foreign clients keep new homes to use only periodically, if at all. The point, they say, is to invest as much money as possible in Canada, which is considered a financial haven.
Many come and go using Canada’s new “temporary resident” visa, which allows them to be in the country up to six months each year for 10 years with no strings attached. More than 300,000 Chinese citizens were issued those visas last year.”
So, it appears the true causes are the brain dead immigration policies from the Harper govt. How come I’m not surprised?
Garth stirring up a Hornets Nest.
Anyone who believes 172 respondents can tell the truth behind a Province of 1.8M people is out to lunch.
But then, one does not change xenophobic prejudice with statistics. They’re dense to begin with.
I sold my house 2 yrs ago for $3M in the middle of Cambie Village. Jewish doctors bought it, not Mainlanders. Since I am 1 statistic, let’s use the commentators’ logic here and extrapolate. What’s the conclusion now?
#68 Nora Lenderby on 11.02.15 at 8:55 pm
Bang on
Please use the vacant spec apartments downtown Vancouver for Syrian refugees
“Why would reasonable, normal, employed middle class people actually care about fools buying $5 million houses over in the most affluent part of town?”
Because, large swaths of this ‘most affluent part of town’ were middle class neighbourhoods 10 years ago, that’s why.
Hoods change. Get over it. — Garth
The one thing that media is forbidden, by law, to do, is print stories of this nature without solid, solid proof. We have hate crime laws in Canada that absolutely forbid it.
This is not a race story, this is a story about where huge pools of money are coming from AND whether it is legal. Country of origin IS an issue.
Nope, just the sensationalizing of a non-story written to feed the gullible. — Garth
#60 Mike A –
I echo you mike a. I do believe it is all temporary. I’ve lived in west van for 4 yrs now, lived in two different rental homes/basement suites and know exactly what I see with my eyes. Mostly foreign money purchases. Many homes torn down, rebuilt by certain developers, sold to folks to put kids in local schools with no patriarch in sight. Sale is staged approx 8 months after rebuild with staged pretense that someone with legitimacity was living in the property (tax avoidance?) All pretend with occasional seasonal decor that sits in the same place for the appropriate length of time. If CRA were more inventive and would team up with MSP and Canada customs, we could actually track those that take more than they “give”. This is not a good time to buy real estate, however my diversified portfolio over the last yr is at zero percent gain. Honestly not sure where to turn.
I think most are missing the actual point of the whipping up of this racist fury. It’s part of the overall conditioning process, constructed by the powers that be and carried out by the MSM, to demonize the Chinese for geopolitical purposes. The exact same way they do it with the other enemies that they’ve constructed for us to hate.
$afe in $ilver.
Here’s Bloomberg’s take on the issue:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-11-02/china-s-money-exodus
#89 bdy sktrn on 11.02.15 at 9:41 pm
The average price for a detached property on the +Westide+ of Vancouver …. (like Toronto’s Bridle Path or Montreal’s Westmount)
————————–
is the bridle path or westmount fully 50% of the land mass of it’s city?
Neither are the three hoods surveyed. — Garth
—————————–
it was your mention of ‘westside’ to which i referred.
if i recall , dunbar (included in the survey) is/was recently upper/middle class (or used to be) – We could have bought in there in the 90’s as two kids just starting careers.
much of the real high end (shaunessey, kerrisdale,southlands) was NOT included. These area make dunbar look absolutely blue-collar.
china is buying ALL of the above hoods plus more (kits excepted?), including along ALL major traffic corridors, ALL across the westside.
not saying bad or good, just is.
Due to heavy competition, home prices in Vancouver are unaffordable for most Canadians trying to break into the market. We are prevented from proving the origin of the buyers outcompeting us due to lack of verifiable data, so are reduced to relying on anecdotal evidence or studies such as these which are lacking in rigour. That leaves us with four options:
1) Blame ourselves (not credible based on the average home price to income ratio of Vancouverites).
2) Blame others – foreigners and immigrants (not credible because you will be called a racist).
3) Suck it up and don’t complain.
4) Convince yourself that the problem is actually a good thing (now that is the Canadian way).
All of you smart asses say “it must be foreigners, avg. Vancity family makes 85k” listen up.
Average Toronto family makes 75k, and has had literal castles in neighbourhoods like Rosedale and the Bridal Path for decades.
If we’re into taking in small sample sizes, the people buying $750k+ rowhouse dumps (16 feet wide lots!) from elderly Portugese widows in my neighbourhood all have pasty white skin and have this weird tendency to avoid eating foods that contain gluten. I suspect half of them don’t bother to vaccinate their children either.
I don’t understand Vancouverites who bang their head against the wall complaining about the cost of housing, the commute times, the cost of living, blah, blah. There are plenty of smaller, more livable cities and towns in BC that would welcome their skills. I live in Smithers and it’s only an 1.5 he plane ride to Vancouver. I can spend a weekend, several times a year visiting family, and then go home to my 5 minute commute and an affordable life. Your wages go a lot further, food can be more expensive, but so many other aspects of life are much better.
I have friends that live in the Lower Mainland that acknowledge life would be so much less stressful living somewhere else but they just can’t seem to make the change.
If I’m not mistaken, 2016 is a census year. Perhaps that will help show absentee, off-shore homeowners, if they exist in large numbers. I would expect a large number of non-returns in certain areas if that’s the case.
Please send them east. I have several rental homes I would love to sell them. And invest the profits in a balanced portfolio, of course.
#122 batt519 on 11.02.15 at 10:50 pm
…. whipping up of this racist fury. It’s part of the overall conditioning process, constructed by the powers that be and carried out by the MSM, to demonize the Chinese for geopolitical purposes.
—————
jesus man, paraniod much?
ever think it’s just people talking about what they see happening around them?
Why do near 100% of the posters who actually live in, or live within a short drive of the westside say over and over ham is real, yet all those who are NOT HERE say they know better about what we see every day than we do?
It like me arguing with some guy in edmonton about whether its raining in edmonton. he soaked, im in BC, but i should tell him he’s dry?
Garth:
I respect your objectively but…
I live on the North Shore in Vancouver. My friends include real estate developers and realtors; their experience is that recent immigrants from mainland China are the dominant factor in increasing prices of high end properties in Greater Vancouver.
I know that cheap mortgages and the BOMum are driving “affordable” sub $1M sales, but money from mainland China seems to be goosing top end prices.
Visit YVR and take a look for yourself. You might reach the same conclusion.
There often. And I don’t form opinions based on anecdote. — Garth
“When the CRA goes after tens of thousands of YVRers who pocket cash from renting illegal suites, then we can worry about a few dozen people who bought properties and deferred transfer taxes. ”
As of more than a few years ago, the suites are no longer illegal. I know many home owners here, and they declare the income. As for why the CRA doesn’t go after those who don’t – do the math. It’s generally a wash with what they’d write off in interest, repairs, etc.
“Remind us how easy it is ‘to buy Canadian citizenship.” — HonGarth
#Well,YouDidAsk…
[SCMP] – Group based in Chinese graft suspect Michael Ching’s office helped stage big Toronto gala for PM contender Trudeau
…”Tru-Youths United, a political organisation based in Chinese graft suspect Michael Ching Mo Yeung’s office, helped Canada’s Liberal Party stage a major fundraiser in Toronto, representing the third large Tru-Youths-linked event known to have been attended by prime ministerial contender Justin Trudeau.
A photo shows that Ching – a wealthy Vancouver developer who is wanted by China for alleged embezzlement and is seeking Canadian refugee status – travelled to Toronto and joined Trudeau on stage at the June 15, 2014, gala at the Sheraton Centre Hotel. More than 200 Tru-Youths volunteers are said to have helped run the official Liberal Party event.”…
http://www.scmp.com/news/world/article/1863178/group-based-chinese-graft-suspect-michael-chings-office-staged-big
#44 Chaddywack on 11.02.15 at 8:14 pm
If a family making $400,000+ is priced out of this market we have bigger issues in Vancouver!
————————————————–
you’ll fit right in on the east side!
Garth,
I respect you, forget about that silly survey. People can see HAM all the time. If you don’t want to see, then you won’t see it. Period.
“YVRers who pocket cash from renting illegal suites”
————————–
why go after those providing a DESPERATELY needed product to needy BC’ers (a roof over head) rather than those simply dodging tax and removing available housing stock?
The anti-Chinese gang allege foreign buyers are not paying their fair share of tax. Those locals with illegal suites and untaxed income are a far greater revenue drain. Just sayin’ — Garth
Chinese using Canada to launder their ill gotten money isn’t the cause of this bubble, certainly isn’t helping, but the cause is debt. Look at housing prices vs Canada household debt levels, they correlate perfectly.
If interest rates went up to 5%, would the wealthy Chinese care? Doubt it, they’d keep exploiting the tax loophole. But 75% of Canadians would be bankrupt and real estate prices would plummet.
Let’s use some logic here, easy to figure out the driving force: loose lending regs + low interest rates + mass immigration = housing bubble.
Most Canadians are tapped out, priced out of the market. In my area, new Canadians, mostly Indians, are taking their families life savings and using it as a downpayment for a $650k house, they want the Canadian dream (I know they are nuts). They’ve never seen a housing crash, so this crash is going to hurt a lot of people, and wipe out generational wealth which is really hard to get back.
“In regional news tonight, Canadians are up in arms over a few hundred foreign real estate investors….meanwhile in other news, foreign investment, has been flooding out of Canada at the fastest pace in the developed world…..over to you Lloyd…”
http://www.thestar.com/business/2015/11/02/money-flooding-out-of-canada-at-fastest-pace-in-developed-world.html
Maybe the xenophobes can start a Canadian Patriots Economic Alliance to stop foreign outflows of capital….after all xenophobia is a 2-way street innit?
Good luck with the surgery…nothing trivial, I hope :-)
—————————-
sarcasm?
isn’t trivial surgery the best kind?
or do you consider a triple bypass to be trivial ;)
Re”The Van real estate board itself puts the number at 4% (I published its stats here a few weeks ago)” Oh, so it must be true lol…why don’t you take a trip out here and see for yourself what everyone who lives here already knows instead of denying the facts?
#113 gladiator on 11.02.15 at 10:33 pm
@BobC 79:
I will assume you are a Canadian citizen.
Can you please describe how you reported your capital gain on the condo in Florida, what forms you used and how it was taxed by the CRA?
Garth: please retain this poster’s IP and email addresses. I would like to do my country a favour and report this case to the CRA if anything in this poster’s reply will sound fishy to me. I want my country to get its fair share of the gains its citizens realize outside its borders.”
what if the poster is a non-resident?
#126 bdy sktrn on 11.02.15 at 11:32 pm
Good luck with the surgery…nothing trivial, I hope :-)
—————————-
sarcasm?
isn’t trivial surgery the best kind?
or do you consider a triple bypass to be trivial ;)
//////////////////////////////////////////
I did wonder what Lenderby meant by this but she has a wicked sense of humour and also has wished me well so I took it in good spirit.
Besides this is not a medical blog but I just brought up the other day how I was determined to keep investing despite health and employment issues.
Peace.
#63 MSM-Free Zone on 11.02.15 at 8:40 pm
#11 Alberta Ed on 11.02.15 at 7:08 pm
“…..The Sun and the Province (heck, most of the Postmedia rags) ceased being real newspapers a long time ago……”
___________________________________
Absolutely correct.
The Sun (news)paper chain is nothing more than an ideological bullhorn…
————————-
woah there tiger.
after that eloquent and thorough trashing of Sun papers you have mixed up your suns – van sun/province are VERY different than the ‘rob ford’ sun group.
Way to go Garth!
Thanks for trying to show these insular fools that the hard data shows that they need to stop smoking so much of the good stuff.
Seriously…everywhere else in Canada has multimillion dollar neighbourhoods and overpriced RE, without all the clucking on about foreigners and immigrants being the root cause.
I was born and raised in BC, and from what I saw before I left, the realtors started milking this cow as early as 1997, during the “Handover” of Hong Kong to China.
During that time, the realtors concocted a great scheme: pump up the (at the time) fading market by taking advantage of a rising wave of Hong Kong buyers looking to flee Chinese “annexation,” and quote them ridiculous house prices, then go around door to door offering locals twice as much as anyone who already lived there would pay for them. That house that had been on the market for $300,000 for twelve months with no buyer interest? Suddenly it had sold for $700,000 to some rich Asian dude…
As a result, prices probably escalated earlier and more sharply in BC than in the rest of Canada, where price increases were specifically correlated to falling interest rates. Hence, the reason why BCers can’t get past the Yellow Peril meme.
“When the CRA goes after tens of thousands of YVRers who pocket cash from renting illegal suites, then we can worry about a few dozen people who bought properties and deferred transfer taxes. If you’re worried about government revenues, stay focused.” — Garth
Thank you. The number of times I’ve listened to my peers complain about foreign buyers, while they themselves airbnb their properties and rent out illegal suites, take on massive mortgages with downpayments from mom, or make cash payments from their pot grow-ops… it’s too much to take, sometimes. Double points for people spouting off about off-shore money while owning property in a foreign country themselves.
Everything does NOT point to offshore money, even if there’s plenty of it around. Everything in fact points to the guzzling of enormous debt, and frenzied psychological delusion.
It’s really sad.
#68 Nora Lenderby on 11.02.15 at 8:55 pm
Sigh. People full of envy and fear. Greed running rampant. Rumours abound. The local rag doing its best to lead the mob.
Sadly this is an experiment with predictable results; even more hatred, delusion and loss of reason.
If people would almost rather die than admit they have lost money on a house, they would certainly prefer to ***blame a minority for the bubble rather than their own cupidity.
———————–
the ‘ham is real’ mostly own in core 604.
we are multi-millionares for doing nothing special.
we ain’t blaming, we be lovin’ it and just pointing out the situation.
ps: we are not angry. not one bit. i surely don’t think an influx of saskatonians would have had the same impact on prices.
the plural of anecdote is data
… the only thing separating a scientific observation from an ‘anecdote’ is that an anecdote is not written down. The minute it is, it shifts to being a data point.
true fact.
Garth, your facts are getting in the way of a good story.
Vancouver has thought it’s special to Asians since the early 90s. We convinced ourselves that Hong Kong 1997 only had one exit. Li Ka Shing was dying to get his grubby hands on my Surrey bungalow and would bury me in cash if he had to.
It’s a waaay better narrative than, “we foolishly bid up our own houses and employ about a third of our population in building, renovating, selling and financing residential real estate.” That makes us sound kinda foolish.
Since only 1/3 of our population is of Chinese heritage it’s really easy to see which ones are foreign. For my next prediction, I’ll assume that every white person I see is Australian. I bet they want my house too.
Re #60 Mike A
Well said. You reflect the views of many of us locals here. I think it is obvious to so many people here that we are being driven out by offshore speculation and money laundering. It has not only made the city unaffordable for the young and people in the arts and care professions, but it has really changed the demographic and the culture of the city–not for the better.
That’s amazing. You can look at an Asian person and tell where they came from. Are they labelled? — Garth
Oh right, maybe they came from Mars
is the bridle path or westmount fully 50% of the land mass of it’s city?
Neither are the three hoods surveyed. — Garth
—
*sigh* Here we go again.
Three hoods were surveyed, but it is happening all over the West Side of Vancouver. The neighbourhoods most affected include, but are not limited to, basically every thing west of Fraser and North of 33rd. This includes the formerly working class neighbourhoods of Kitsilano (not the beachfront – I’m talking all that stuff south of Broadway and east to Arbutus), Cambie, Mount Pleasant and Fraser.
So yeah, we’re talking fully 50% of the city, if you include the Shaugnessies, Dunbars and Point Greys on that map as well.
How money is being smuggled from china.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-11-02/china-s-money-exodus
Hey Garth.
You have had many posts on how the Real Estate boards fudge the numbers and have criticized their Frankenumber (HPI) on more than one occasion. But at the same time you seem to take for granted the 4-6% of homes being purchased by foreign buyers as Gospel. I think the estimate of 70% being purchased by either foreigners or “new” Canadians is a bit high, but not far off the mark, even for the higher end homes. A study based on names is still just that. Many of my Chinese Canadian friends still use their “Chinese” name. Some because their name works well in English, others because they keep their Chinese name as a legal name and use a nickname among friends. Then there is the assumption that they are foreigners, when they could simply be “New” Canadians.
Is the study statistically significant? Yes it is, but only for the area in question. You won’t find similar statistics for homes purchased in Langley or Maple Ridge. You may find similar stats for Vancouver, Richmond, Burnaby and the North Shore. And it does have a trickle down affect both in sales and rental prices for the surrounding areas.
You also have to wonder why Vancouver prices are so much higher than everywhere else in the country. Its not wages.
Kilt.
#69 Bottoms_Up
Andrew Yan is born and raised in Vancouver. He is a UBC professor. He is not a foreign reporter.
The only Poll that matters is at the No 5
Looks like a late night for you Garth. I appreciate seeing your rebuttals to various comments but might I suggest a more relaxing end to the day instead of moderating nutty comments; maybe a good book perhaps. Is Dorothy ok with you spending all this time and energy in front of a screen? Remember, happy wife happy life.
#147 Big D on 11.03.15 at 12:06 am
Since only 1/3 of our population is of Chinese heritage it’s really easy to see which ones are foreign. For my next prediction, I’ll assume that every white person I see is Australian. I bet they want my house too.
///////////////////////////////////////
Um ,Big D Oz is very multicultural too .
Lots of different skin colours .
People aren’t to sure about me they sometimes guess Kiwi or Saffa.
I do want your house though,just not at these prices.
Garth – not sure why you wanted to open this can of worms again… ;-)
People – someone posted this earlier and I will paraphrase… If it’s too expensive, don’t do everything in your capacity to buy it…. Wait and the lack of demand will put downward pressure on the price.
Why is it so hard to wait? What are all of you so afraid of? Why this need to buy if it doesn’t make sense? Why not move to a different city/province? Why not invest money in assets that are under valued rather than overvalued? Why blame others (anyone) for your inability to participate? It is really that simple.
BTW – I have the resources to play and I refuse because it does not make financial sense. I don’t care why (drug money, offshore money, mom and dad money or just plain stupid money)…
March 2015 (Liquidty Provider)
Assets Eligible as Collateral under the Bank of Canada’s Standing Liquidity Facility
Nov 2015 (Liquidty Taker)
Royal Bank scraps size limit on newcomer mortgages to keep up with Chinese demand
99% of housing analysts and commentators have no clue how mortggaes are funded and what's driving the market. Forget the Chinese. The Government (GG), Bank of Canada and CMHC are Canada's biggest property market makers.
There are no sellers and buyers in this market. Only sellers and lenders backed by a central bank.
There’s a really smart guy living in his parent’s basement somewhere in Vancouver saving tons of cash. It’s called a cellar’s market.
Easy folks….Money talks no matter where it is from.
Adapt or die aka move if you can.
This too shall soon pass and in 4 years, you will wonder what all the fuss was about…
But his name is Yan. Therefore he must be a foreign investor from China, he must launder money, he must not pay taxes and he must own several empty multi-million $ houses. Isn’t that the conclusion of the ‘study’? How would the study differentiate Mr. Yan from the others labeled as foreigners?
And THESE 2 articles should be on EVERYBODY living in Canada’s radar…..
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-02/transcanada-just-killed-keystone-xl-pipeline
and
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-02/forget-china-extremely-developed-country-just-suffered-its-biggest-money-outflow-eve
Once again this Halloween … Kids moving up and down my side of the street. The other side? Completely dark.
In fact , several of those homes are never lit.
No idea who owns these places. Whoever it is must have money to be able to ignore 2-3 million dollar investments.
Right? Wrong? Dunno.
I don’t particularly like how it shapes the neighborhood.
What an incredible change YVR has undergone.
I agree that the sample is small and biased, so why not get some accurate numbers for the GVA and put an end to the story? And I don’t mean numbers from Realtor groups. If this is just a statistical anomaly, then invested interests have nothing to worry about. But at least informed discussions and policy could occur …
And I agree with a previous poster about the social effects these kind of investor-class foreign buyers are having. You purchasing a property and renting it out here under your wife’s name is not even close to the same thing Garth.
I really don’t get why this is an issue. Buy in an area you can afford or rent and stop whining. Real estate is a free market and government should keep its nose out. If someone buys a house and leaves it empty that is their right. If foreigners are buying west side property that should be their right. Buy elsewhere whiners!
eriously…everywhere else in Canada has multimillion dollar neighbourhoods…
______________
miss cici you have been away for a while it seems. This is not about having some MM$ hoods.
This is about the entire city having ONLY MM $ hoods , something else every other city most definitely does not have.
Both sides of this argument lack substantial data. It is strange GT keeps quoting from the people who cook up his Franken-number in Victoria about the offshore buyers stats and it’s too bad racism keeps creeping into the other side’s position on the matter. I doubt we’ll ever get the statistics needed to fully understand the issue. This crazy real estate market is making a lot of people in the financial services sector rich. No doubt about it. It is these people that likely have the best data in determining where all the money is coming from. They’re probably not in favor of messing with a good thing either. With the exception of the filthy rich (from domestic or foreign places) buying RE in the lower mainland is a fool’s game.
Garth, this has nothing to do with race, they could be Dutch, Polish or Star-bellied Sneetches for all I care. But it does so happen that a conspicuous majority of people from the same country are buying so much of Vancouver that it is no longer sustainable for other locals (Chinese / Hongkees included) to live there. It is pretty difficult to compete with the buying power of those who make no secret of tax avoidance and money laundering, but if dirty money isn’t an issue, perhaps start inviting more of the Russian mafia over too.
BTW
I’m in Property management in Vancouver, we have a mainland Chinese client who has now purchased 5 multimillion dollar commercial properties in Van
We asked him what his criteria was for adding new properties to his position ..his response was
…..”if it’s for sale”…
4 cmhc on 11.02.15 at 9:31 pm
Are their loans backed by CMHC?
All high-ratio loans are insured.
____€_________
Cmon finish the logical argument…
None, zip, zero of these loans are high ratio.
Therefore none are CMHC insured.
The 1m CMHC limit barley covers the pool house and garage. Houses are 3-10 m. No CMHC for you.
#124 Bdy Skytrn
china is buying ALL of the above hoods plus more (kits excepted?), including along ALL major traffic corridors, ALL across the westside.
And just how do you know this? Do you have some inside knowledge of all real estate transactions taking place on the westside? This is just more hype-crap from you.
Without reading all the comments I was talking to a friends 41 year old daughter several weeks ago in Richmond and she has issues with the “housewife” and “student” owners not having any declared income and not contributing to federal and provincial taxes which pay for their schools, hospitals, transportation etc…no issue with actual ownership, just the tax evasion that is happening.
This ‘tough luck’, ‘move’, ‘don’t ask questions’, ‘it happens everywhere’ attitude that is mainly coming across from Boomers in the top 1% here is really not what I remember from my own childhood. It isn’t the way my grandparents spoke to my parents. I worry what my son will inherit by the time this is all said and done.
You don’t have to be a foreigner to be spending foreign money. Once you’re a Canadian, you’re not a foreigner. But somebody could still be sending you money from China.
“Most Canadians are tapped out, priced out of the market. In my area, new Canadians, mostly Indians, are taking their families life savings and using it as a downpayment for a $650k house, they want the Canadian dream (I know they are nuts). They’ve never seen a housing crash, so this crash is going to hurt a lot of people, and wipe out generational wealth which is really hard to get back.”
So true. And Canada is going to have a black eye around the world for being a money hole once these immigrants, who, along with their life savings took on huge amounts of credit, are financially destroyed. A few elite immigrants will have scurried some assets outside of the banking system (ie: back in their homelands, where “interest rates” are often double-digits), but most basically won’t know what hit them.
All this talk about not knowing who the people are who buy the property on the Westside is ridiculous. I have lived in a small enclave near the water on the westside for 20 years, and it is, or was a very close knit neighbourhood. Everyone knew everyone, we know who has bought the houses and knocked them down because we know the people who sold the houses and the number of asian buyers is a lot more than 5%, we know the Chinese buyer who bought across the street. He lives here with his daughter and his wife is a developer in China. he went back to his town and brought 5 or 6 people back who bought about 10 or 15 houses in the neighbourhood, tore them down and have left them empty. One is for sale for $7 million dollars. 50 foot lot. It is not a myth. It is not sinophobia, it is just a fact and our neighbourhood is very quiet. We had 15 kids here on halloween. Usually we have a hundred or more, but there are no people here.I don’t actually mind it because there are no cars on the street, no noise, but it is a bit creepy. There are still Christmas wreaths up from last year.
When the CRA goes after tens of thousands of YVRers who pocket cash from renting illegal suites, then we can worry about a few dozen people who bought properties and deferred transfer taxes. If you’re worried about government revenues, stay focused. — Garth
City Governments are simply a form of Tyranny.
They make all sorts of laws so that virtually all home-owners are breaking at least one of them.
They enforce these laws often only when a home-owner doesn’t get along with his neighbour and a creepy call to the bylaw enforcement department results in a gestapo like visit from a bylaw enforcement officer.
Who then doles out a large and ever increasing daily fine until the problem is fixed to the satisfaction of the proletarian guard of our police state.
In the case of illegal suites. Our good government needs these suites in order to house a third of the population.
The only reason they are illegal is so the police state can maintain tyrannical powers of entry to your home and force you to keep a discreet lid on your activities.
This forces you to smile broadly when you see the neighbour you hate and say “Have a nice day Mrs. Lipshits”
#157 waiting on the west coast
Nice post. Sound thinking. Good on you.
as the topic of HAM on this blog always proves, it’s impossible to have an objective conversation about foreign ownership of Canadian real estate without accusations of racism and xenophobia. it’s pretty sad. I rarely read this far into the comments, but this is an interesting topic to me. I see a pattern of ad hominem attacks against people who “believe” in HAM by the other posters, as well as an unwillingness to accept any of the information in the many links posted by the “believers”.
it’s people who make racial issues out of things that need not be who should have their own obsession with race questioned.
1 in 3 who reside in Surrey BC were not born in Canada. High schools are 95% Indian. There are more white teachers then students.
Fact not racist.
But Garth, come out west, and see what is going on here, French is no were to be seen, English is at best a second or third language behind Punjabi, Cantonese or Mandarin.
Also when do you see my diversified fund recover back to the high of this year? Still down 4 percent from its high earlier this year.
House prices went up 15% so I am hoping my money on the side line can at least make me 7% this year,
Thanks.
#154 Suede on 11.03.15 at 12:35 am
The only Poll that matters is at the No 5
aaahhhh men brother
Pretty sure we were there three weeks ago!!
just asking,
is CMHC still on the hook if it can be shown that the bank
did not do it’s due diligence?
were some of these loans made that weren’t kosher?
can CMHC renege if the bank wasn’t paying attention?
(I hope so)
If true this would be so easy to fix.
Increase the capital gains tax on non-resident RE profit from 25% to 75% and make small corporations pay it too. The money is only invested in Canada because profits can easily be removed.
Answer is so simple you have to wonder why politicians don’t do it.
Cheers
150+ responses and about 5 people understand basic economics and finance. Foreign buyers have undoubtedly impacted the price of real estate in Vancouver. 100% their fault? Nope. But there’s a bubble and it’s only a matter of time before it bursts.
From Bloomberg news. You people are all racist for expecting Chinese to obey the law. I predict no banker will be jailed. Canadians are fools.
Moving money in small increments to avoid reporting requirements is called “smurfing,” after the little blue cartoon characters who as small individuals constitute a larger whole. A record $194 billion exited China in September, according to a Bloomberg gauge estimating capital flows. The Chinese use numerous tactics to transfer money abroad, and smurfing is routine, with some of the cash flowing into overheated property markets in Vancouver, Hong Kong, New York and Sydney.
Now, as Chinese citizens bypass the country’s limit of converting $50,000 a person per year by enlisting friends, relatives and even employees to send out cash on their behalf, banks and regulators around the world are being forced to decide: Is it okay to knowingly allow Chinese citizens to evade their government’s controls if it doesn’t break your own country’s laws?
In Vancouver, a Supreme Court case showed that one lender, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, had assisted such transactions. The case arose when a CIBC financial adviser allowed a wealthy Chinese client to route two deposits of $50,000 through her private accounts to buy a home, leading to the dismissal of the banker for “commingling” her own funds with her client’s.
Some time ago in Hitler’s Deutschland a thoughtful Nazi came to the perfectly sensible conclusion that as Jews were morally inferior they most certainly shouldn’t be allowed to have pets. And, indeed, a law was passed forbidding Jews to keep pets.
My reading informs me that this law wasn’t strictly enforced – not enough people squealed on their Jewish neighbours because separating the children from Rex and Mitzi did seem a bit over the top.
Once a great lie gains respectability, all sorts of idiotic and vicious corollaries naturally follow.
HAMophobia is a symptom of collective insecurity.
Here we depend on free speech, contract law, and, to put it one way, an Englishman’s sense of fair play (e.g., GT) to keep the politically ambitious yahoos in check.
[Not that GT is an Englishman as such – but you get my point.]
DELETED
#113
Nope, American from Indiana. Did what’s called a 1031 exchange which allowed me to transfer the gains tax free from one like investment to another. I used the money to build a class a office building.
Lost it all in 2010 when our commercial real estate crashed so settle down.
Canada is an immigration country and clearly immigration, immigrants, their relatives play a role in feeding the bubbly Canadian RE market.
BUT it think it’s a mistake, and I tend to agree with Garth on this, to think this is the cause of the real estate bubble, it’s merely a symptom. Immigrants have joined the rest of the Canadian herd, that’s all.
Besides, other objective facts have fed the bubble, the commodity boom (some would say bubble) for example.
But the true cause of the massive bubble we have is this: Cheap credit made easy by CMHC.
That’s not to say there is no dirty money and money laundering in real estate, I think there is plenty. Only it has joined the party, not created it.
Why do people think that Canadian real estate or Canadian jobs should be reserved for people born in Canada? I don’t get it.
Terrific commentary Garth, I was incensed when I read the article in the Globe and Mail, how a credible journalist could publish something with such inherent bias and terrible science/logic is beyond me. B.C has a shamefully history of scapegoating its problems on the local Chinese population. It is sad this scapegoating manifesting itself in the modern age.
Back in the late 70’s/early 80’s Richmond already had corner stores with Chinese signs. Lived in Port Moody for 14 yrs, saw it with my own eyes.
HAM has certainly played a role in making YVR a hot spot. But it is an accumulation of many factors that created the conditions that brought us to today’s prices. Immigration, low rates, greed, quick capital gains/herd mentality, climate, location (mountains and sea) all contributed to fueling the YVR bubble. ( …well maybe not climate unless you grow feathers and quack.) although liquid snow is easier to shovel.
If prices were equal, where would you rather live, Winterpeg or Vancouver? yeah, 99 out of 100 people agree with you. and the prices reflect that.
I grew up and worked in Richmond (1970s to 2000s) and saw the change from working class suburb (1976 my parents bought a brand new house for $79k now worth north of 1.5m) to millionaires Mecca. Richmond turned into an exclusive area precisely because it became a locale for laundering dirty money. RE values are not based on incomes of locals rather on foreign (mostly dishonest) capital. Wash, rinse, repeat lol!
#141 For those about to flop… on 11.02.15 at 11:50 pm
#126 bdy sktrn on 11.02.15 at 11:32 pm
“Good luck with the surgery…nothing trivial, I hope :-)”
I did wonder what Lenderby meant by this …
I do wish you well, all of you. Having a laugh is a fine way to relieve stress and anxiety. Grumpiness can kill you.
You must forgive my weakness for feeble passive-aggressive jokes. I blame it on my pussy :-)
#117 Leo Trollstoy on 11.02.15 at 10:38 pm
#68 Nora Lenderby on 11.02.15 at 8:55 pm
Bang on
Oh, I do, Mr. Trollstones. To the point of being a pest :-)
Being that Canada is full of beavers that build houses one should only hope that immigrants and off-shore money keep coming.If the music stops there will be no chairs.Unemployment and negative growth beyond your worst nightmares.Open up your hearts to all newer Canadians because they are the ones supporting your real estate values.
#184 Nagraj on 11.03.15 at 5:23 am
Once a great lie gains respectability, all sorts of idiotic and vicious corollaries naturally follow. HAMophobia is a symptom of collective insecurity.
Yes, it is easy for those of us who are immigrants, or who have moved around a lot in our lives, to underestimate the fear and anxiety of some of our fellows (who come across as nativist). This is real to them, which makes it real.
A bit like the fear of windfarms, but with the reverse effect on “property values” :-)
Re: The folks who let the houses sit vacant
If this is truly the case, why wouldn’t they rent them out? Whether it’s HAM or rich locals, why would they be leaving serious cash on the table by letting the homes si empty instead of renting them out for $1000’s per month?
“And to further rattle the city, it was revealed that 82% of the purchases involved mortgages”
Haven’t you guys noticed the big 5 building up their wealth management businesses over the years?
Btw – you don’t need to be a Canadian resident to get a mortgage in Canada.
Garth, I read your blog daily. I am disguised by the media to blame the high price of real estate to Chinese. From your blog, I know at least part of Canadian is clear in their minds.
For sure, some rich from Mainland China bring bag of cash to buy expensive house in Vancouver. But that’s just very small portion. But for the houses in the west-side of Vancouver, they are only for those 1% people, not for the salaried middle-class.
I always wonder who the sellers are? are they yellow, white and black?
Freedom First,
Arrogance is so ridiculous, no one has a reason to be so. Do you not realize how small you are in such a huge world?
I have certainly registered properties in the name of my wife. No laundry involved. — Garth
—
Bought for cash only?
Always. — Garth
=====
With historically low mortgage rate, isn’t the opportunity cost of buying with cash to high?
Not if you remove equity in a tax-deductible fashion. — Garth
From my experience in GTA, it is the local residents who, with one income, overextend any purchase with <5% down 3-5k sqft properties, then have no money to ever go out, pay property taxes, or even purchase gas.
#196 Hot Albertan Money on 11.03.15 at 10:17 am
”Re: The folks who let the houses sit vacant
If this is truly the case, why wouldn’t they rent them out? Whether it’s HAM or rich locals, why would they be leaving serious cash on the table by letting the homes sit empty instead of renting them out for $1000’s per month?”
Maybe they just don’t need the money. Could be many different reasons.
#196 Hot Albertan Money on 11.03.15 at 10:17 am
“”Re: The folks who let the houses sit vacant
If this is truly the case, why wouldn’t they rent them out? Whether it’s HAM or rich locals, why would they be leaving serious cash on the table by letting the homes si empty instead of renting them out for $1000’s per month?””
The questions for many of us who own properties in the Okanagan. Why do so many Albertan’s leave their homes empty for months on end with grass growing over the fences and gutters full of leaves? I can coun’t five on my street alone all purchased with Hot Alberta Money. Soon they will all have ”For Sale” signs on them. Same thing happened in the 70s, 80s and 90s.
I think the point many posters are making that it matters not where the buyers are from. What is at issue is that these hoods are sitting empty. And while the owners of these empty homes are still paying their property taxes they are not however supporting local businesses.
A side note to property taxes. Many of these low income housewives and students are able to defer property taxes with the governments blessing.
At #113: Gladiator… Damn! Paranoid much? Not only did you make an apparent false assumption, but you’re trying to coax the blog owner into retaining people’s IP addresses to report them to your government for tax evasion? That’s pretty extreme. For all you know that person could have been making it all up. You must have been that annoying kid in the front of the class who tattled on the other kids who chewed gum, or drank maple syrup in the classroom. Chill the [email protected] out, mow your damn lawn, and sit the hell down!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JGhoLcsr8GA
Snitching, eh?
Have you ever had the taxman audit you on something that others reported to them, thinking that you avoided paying the due taxes? Fortunately, all was in order, but it makes you understand that “the community cares”… /sarc
Is it a bad thing to be a law-abiding citizen who is acutely aware of what is happening and lets authorities know of any possible fraud or crime? It is also called “giving back to the community”.
BobC: you being non-Canadian of course changes the situation and I don’t care whether you kept or lost your gains, as long as you played fairly and paid your dues.
Garth can we talk about “gentrification” of Toronto one day?
Governments love it when the little people argue amongst themselves. The Central Banks are the real culprits with their artificially low interest rates. This is the only reason for hugely-inflated house prices. Divide and Conquer – the oldest trick in the book, works every single time.
Detached homes in Vancouver now almost $1,600,000 – up 26% yoy. And last year at this time it was up significantly from the year before.
http://www.yattermatters.com/2015/11/affordability-not-a-hope-in-hell-for-vancouver-real-estate/
Listings for All types of homes down 30%. Sales up from last year for All types of homes in Vancouver.
Sorry Garth, but we would agree with the majority of the blog here that this survey DOES MATTER.
We have been readers and followers of your blog since you started back in 08′ and we fear you are letting your bias get in the way of facts here. The survey will show that there is foreign buyers buying at the top of the market influencing the home prices. Be it 172 or 1.7 million, it is now implanted in the minds of men and Mr. Market.
As they say in finance, don’t stand in the way of a run-a-way train.
What most people want to believe (that they are personally in no way responsible for stupid prices) does not make it so. The survey is bogus. — Garth
C’mon People,
How many times does Garth need to stoke these fires before you stop biting?
Anecdotally and logically, based upon average incomes and demographic trends, it is highly likely that
prices are influenced by offshore wealth. The fact that no one of any authority is willing to actually track these transactions, or rationally discuss the possible impacts (positive or negative), is the most telling.
The likelihood is:
#1. Foreign wealth is influencing the Canadian real estate market, more in certain regions.
#2. Forever low interest rates are influencing the Canadian real estate market.
#3. External forces such as the price of oil, also influence real estate in certain regions.
Your elected leaders, all owning Canadian real estate, don’t care about either #1 or #2, and in fact will support
any and all efforts to keep this bubble alive.
Have you not figured this out yet?
Even GT, who is a voice of reason regarding real estate in Canada today, his argument is that
possible issues of tax evasion are ok because other Canadians do it.
So, the point then being, that for those of us not evading taxes, well we should get on the bandwagon and evade a few of our own?
The Canadian way.
And then there are those that believe that any discussion of the impacts of globalization (effects of foreign wealth, offshoring of production and jobs etc.) is nothing but xenophobia and racism.
(Right Trollstoy?)
These are the real dangerous ones. Those who attempt to shut down discussion by portraying any and all who disagree as extreme.
Garth is right about one thing.
Complaining about things will get you nowhere.
Do what is right for you, and listen to the financial advice of GT in this blog.
Let Canada end up where it does.
If it all turns into one massive mess, whatever.
Your efforts to ‘give a shit’ are not appreciated.
Tax evasion is illegal, and every evader should be brought into conformance. — Garth
It might be true that Chinese immigrants are driving the price of real estate in Van. But can we all agree that this is a bogus methodology. Even if the sample size was significant, searching for non-anglicized names proves nothing.
I could easily use the exact-same method to prove that house prices in Woodbridge are being driven up by those damn, wealthy-foreign Italians. And wealthy-foreign Indians are driving up prices in Brampton.
All this survey proves is that people of a certain nationality tend to settle and concentrate in one area. Which is true all across Canada.
Money is getting through the cracks in our Banking System, as few in Vancouver have “tax paying” jobs that would suggest an upscale living standard, let alone a down payment on a $million house in Richmond, Vancouver, Surrey, West Vancouver, N. Vancouver. A .75 cent CDN dollar against the $US puts foreign money at an advantage. And sitting money in Vancouver property, like money sitting in property in London England, it has been washed by the Banks. FINTRAC is useless. Even, KPMG helps high-end clients hide money.
For those who have forgotten where they came from, here is a little refresher.
https://www.pier21.ca/research/immigration-history/settling-the-west-immigration-to-the-prairies-from-1867-to-1914
I know Garth means well, but he needs to get out of Canuck land and see the world. Take a quick trip to NYC, LA, Vegas, or even Washington DC and see the impact Chinese easy money is having on local markets.
Then he should take a trip across the Pacific, do a little tour of the Chinese mainland – with a quick stop in Singapore or Australia — see the overcapacity and endemic corruption up close and personal.
We’re now in the post-global age, Canada is but a small refuge for the world’s excess liquidity swashing around in the system. It’s ‘ordinary’ Canadians who are going to get the short end of the rope when the music skips a beat.
#25 Mark
“Banks lend against collateral, not generally income, when it comes to mortgages. ”
False. Major banks will do equity loans for low advance rate, usually 65% and below and still require debt service testing (albeit more generous) as well as a minimum credit score. Some may do equity loans only without income testing but not sched. I banks that I am aware of. Certainly CMHC insured loans do require debt servicing cacapity testing.
http://www.scmp.com/property/international/article/1189254/singapore-property-taxes-aim-deter-foreign-speculators
#197 Londoner
“Btw – you don’t need to be a Canadian resident to get a mortgage in Canada.”
I believe you need to be a permanent resident to get CMHC insurance though and with a higher downpayment.
“Who cares? Get a grip, dude. This is a handful of people in a neighbourhood you can only afford to drive through. — Garth”
Who cares ? I do, and many others who helped build this country do. A handful of people from outside of Canada who have no intention of contributing to Canadian society with BILLIONS of dollars that the richest Canadians don’t have to flip houses every couple of months. Clue-in time Garth.
Bitter. Ugly. Get used to the fact there will always be people with more than you. And most who have less. — Garth
‘when foreigners buy expensive digs it makes everybody spend more money in a ‘trickle-down’ effect’
So the NDP believes in ‘trickle-down’ economics when it comes to house prices, but not tax policy?
I agree with Garth. We might as well look at the sales on a single street to reach a conclusion like this. I don’t like where this is headed and it’s going to make Canada look bad…
Save your taxes.
If you’re a salaried employee, ask to get paid the minimum wage tipped off with a contract that pays you cash.
Everyone is condoning tax evasion and illicit money flows so if you don’t join the club, you will be left behind.
Many people in the lower mainland have begun to do just that. Work at minimum wage salaried. Then have a separate contract with the company for consulting etc.
Just an FYI
DOW has broken the downtrend and TSX is still in a solid downy…This is telling.
Dear Garth,
As a statistician, I figure there is one influential number which was not reported, and this flaw was not mentioned by anyone yet.
What % of the population have Chinese-like names in that area? This would be the baseline control.
Higher % of Chinese = High % of Homes bought by Chinese
I could’ve spinned the numbers saying, the Canucks have a larger % of Chinese supporters than Jets. Doesn’t mean anything without the controlling the Chinese population in Winnipeg.
Why most will never dig out. Its not a cash flow problem its psychological issue…
Hey just like the Gov!! Stupid asses….
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-hidden-reasons-people-spend-too-much-1446433200?mod=WSJ_article_EditorsPicks_5
last!
Great dialogue – my opinion is that HAM is not responsible for high prices in YVR. Cheap mtge rates, and still cheap money are the reasons. Plus limited space, and a growing population. Plus gov’t/media/realtors/developers have had a big hand in it too. Amazing what you accept in order to “keep the economy going”….
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/the-law-page/canadian-banks-helping-clients-bend-rules-to-move-money-out-of-china/article26246404/
“Bitter. Ugly. Get used to the fact there will always be people with more than you. And most who have less. — Garth”
Bitter ? Neighborhoods suddenly gone empty like Chinese ghost cities is a good thing ? Sometimes morals come before greed Garth.
«Yellow peril» in a drop in the bucket compared to what the collapse in commodities might do to the Canadian economy.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/tanking-commodities-could-mean-dark-days-for-canadian-economy/article27068889/
But I guess it’s easier when you find somebody to blame…
Why is it a problem when assumed “Asian” buyers purchase luxury properties; but it has never been a problem when assumed “European” buyers purchase luxury properties? Racism? Xenophobia?
I wonder if the locals in Mexico, Belize, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Ecuador, Spain, Greece, etc. are as racist as Canadians are when we go there and buy up their property?
“This is a handful of people in a neighbourhood you can only afford to drive through”. — Garth
Perhaps. My suspicion however is a similar study undertaken in neighbourhoods across the LML would reach the same conclusions. That would be inconvenient, wouldn’t it?
This study is a joke from start to finish. I cannot fathom how so many people can fall for such blighted methodology. — Garth
Canadian seniors are in such dire straits due to the ZIRP and Clown Prince Poloz’ insane ‘Canadian Peso’ campaign that the Food Banks have reported a huge surge in hungry seniors looking for fresh vegetables…..THX Poloz…..you and Justin make a great team.
Not only veg…but now that food inflation has gone hyper…people have resorted to stealing meat in numbers that have finally caught the attention of international media.
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2015/11/02/beef-thefts-on-the-rise-experts-say/
2/3 of buyers of detached homes in North vancouvrr are from foreign asian decent. Regardless of ethnicity, it’s presumed foreign and most of those mortgageS are at 82%… I didn’t see the concern of the big mortgages being taken on homes in north vancouver from foreign buyers. How about the background check regulations competency of the three banks involved with the three canadian banks lending big mortgages to these foreigners…HSBC, Bank of Montreal and CIBC….
Are we or I missing something…they come here and borrow here, what risk to them if the house of cards falls apart?
Garth, don’t call people names, it doesn’t help your image either.
No names called. And it’s not North Van. — Garth
Let’s assume this survey is true for a moment. Shouldn’t the anger be directed at our government and our property laws and not an ethnic group that is simple being smart? If you are going to be angry, be angry at the right thing.
I see no error governments have made. It’s a free country, a blessing we should jealously protect. — Garth
That’s amazing. You can look at an Asian person and tell where they came from. Are they labelled? — Garth
——————–
It’s actually not that hard to tell them apart.
Why would one care?
Most Asians actually appreciate when you acknowledge their ethnicity.
Most Chinese would not like it being called Japanese.
Asians are as distinct as Europeans.
The labeling I referred to was ‘of Asian heritage, born in Burnaby’ as opposed to ‘Asian, off the plane.’ I should have used crayons. — Garth
Arrogance? Me? You must be joking.
However, in my world, I will admit, I am big. Come first as a matter of fact. As it should be. Many men learn to late that in this world they are only regarded as a utility or a wallet. In our society, men are disposable. Not me, of course. I have perfected looking after myself. Had to. I am a man.
Last Post to #199 Sandy
I see no error governments have made. It’s a free country, a blessing we should jealously protect. — Garth
Yes free but fraud abound?
As someone who lives in Vancouver, I can “vouch” for the fact that many of these homes sit empty, that there is now a problem with rents going up also for people — the middle and working class people so necessary for a dynamic and diverse city.
And yes, there are lots of Chinese buying — but I cannot vouch for who is an “investor” land banking and who is moving their family here for our healthcare and what is left of our education system.
I can say that on a financial blog supposedly populated by smart people, I am SHOCKED to see how many Climate Change Deniers there are here.
You science-denying luddites are contributing to the extinction of the ecosystem we all depend on — as we know it — and quite simply can no longer be allowed to endanger the rest of us.
Climate change is REAL. IT IS MAN-MADE and luckily many nations are stepping up to try and do something about it.
Regrettably Canada put too many of its eggs in the corporate polluters’ fossil fuel basket.
But this can be changed — and lots of those “in the know” are seeing the shift, which is why Canadian farmland is being bought up at a fast pace now.
We can become a beacon for renewable energy — and the changing climate will shift the “growing belt” that has been California to Canada. There ARE ways out of this, but those ways do NOT include continuing to deny proven science.
In fact it has also been PROVEN that Exxon Mobil knew about climate change decades ago and effectively endangered the ENTIRE PLANET by hiding it and promoting a disinformation campaign.
Now some savvy folks are trying to figure out how to prosecute them just as the tobacco companies were taken to task for the same thing (though certainly not as deadly as what Exon and their kin have done). But of course, you can never get back what we have lost. Cod in the Atlantic – salmon in the Pacific regions, are just the beginning. Ask those in Syria dealing with a country where there is no longer water whether climate change is real.
The REST OF THE WORLD is putting all of you knuckle-dragging climate change deniers on notice.
You will NOT stop all of us who wish to deal with the REALITY OF SCIENCE.
And please do not reply quoting your phony “science facts” — go lock yourselves in your doomer basements with your toilet paper and a gun and leave the adults to try and figure out how to deal with this mess and leave a livable world to our children.
The pathetic irony is that all these posters who claim that ‘it’s obvious’ that foreign buyers are bidding up prices in Vancouver can’t provide any evidence.
Only anecdotes.
If it’s ‘so obvious’ then show us the evidence. Go to the land registry, cross reference with citizenship data, and present your case.
Obviously it’s not so obvious.
And then there are others who are gullible and stupid.
I’m with you Garth on putting down the pitchforks on the anti-Chinese witch hunt.
Where I differ is over the allegation of empty houses. You claim that people should be free to buy and house and do what they please and I get the libertarian stay-outta-my-life-government attitude but I also live here in Vancouver. I have to tell you, the housing situation is dire and it’s not letting up. It’s not just the crazy SFH prices, it’s the rental market too. Vacancies numbers are razor thin and rental prices continue their march upwards (contrary to the rest of the country). We have a nice climate, a good city and a non-sputtering economy that is attracting folks domestically and abroad. We don’t have many homes for them all so there is a squeeze. Part of that blame is on the city for caving to NIMBY homeowners who don’t want increased density in their neighbourhood. However, if the ’empty homes’ theory holds any water then I think individual liberty takes back seat to greater good (as it often does) and we agree that we need to maximize the use of the housing we have. If that means taxing those that choose to use our valuable real estate as an ornament for the gluttonous debt consumption then fine. Lets disincentivise that behaviour and use the proceeds to help those marginalized people at the bottom of the totem pole.
Two points:
1) A federal requirement for social insurance number (or country+passport# if foreign) for ALL buyers on a deed would provide the data to resolve this argument. More importantly, however, it would give the CRA a fighting chance to detect non-exempt capital gains generated by domestic property flippers. Since this might affect boomer house values, I can’t see it happening any time soon :-(
2) The following link compares birth rates in Canada and China since 1960:
http://www.google.ca/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&met_y=sp_dyn_tfrt_in&idim=country:CAN:USA:AUS&hl=en&dl=en#!ctype=l&strail=false&bcs=d&nselm=h&met_y=sp_dyn_tfrt_in&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=region&idim=country:CAN:CHN&ifdim=region&hl=en_US&dl=en&ind=false
Birth rate when today’s 40-50 year olds were born was a little over 2 in Canada vs. about 5.5 in China, and yet both countries are now a little over 1.6. Note the slope of the Chinese line between 1970 and 1980.
Considering the problems that demographic changes are causing in Canada (economic torpor, increasing earner/retiree ratios, health cost issues), I suspect that the Chinese economy is going to do relatively poorly over the next 20-30 years. The issue of extra money leaving for investments in Canada may become moot as there may not be much.
As per Cramdown’s mention of KMI.US I’m calling a camel toe’s bottom here.
The labeling I referred to was ‘of Asian heritage, born in Burnaby’ as opposed to ‘Asian, off the plane.’ I should have used crayons. — Garth
—————-
Typical cultural relativist’s response.
Garth, thought you called that guy an idiot on your thread.
There’s a report from that same asian dude on BNN from yesterday regarding North Vancouver home purchases.
Please have a look:
http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=740687
http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=740651
Few comments from yesterday.
It’s okay. He is, in fact, an idiot. — Garth
Cheers
Pardon me west side
watching tvo
brian cox and High-Rise Harry are sitting on his couch overlooking Sydney and all the apartment blocks harry built.
harry says to brian that 80% of his apartments have been bought by mainland Chinese
waltzing matilda
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XrkThaBWa5c
#241 gtrz4peace
“In fact it has also been PROVEN that Exxon Mobil knew about climate change decades ago and effectively endangered the ENTIRE PLANET by hiding it and promoting a disinformation campaign.”
dude…you need to get out of propagandizing mode.
first off: man-made climate change is a THEORY based on “advanced” computer models.
it is FAR from a fact–MANY disagree.
perhaps you should learn about both sides of the argument before spouting more irrationality.
try this:
http://www.moralcaseforfossilfuels.com/
@ #18 Freedom First
Your name is Freedom First, and you don’t see any irony in bashing legal weed and saying it’s bad enough that alcohol is legal?
#241 gtrzforpeace
Great post. Yes, I don’t have kids, and will never have grandkids, so I do find it amazing that the majority are so ignorant/brain dead/stupid/greedy/selfish and apathetic to the already obvious damage to our air, land and oceans which they are leaving their children and grandchildren to live with. Not to mention the species disappearing from the world at at an alarming rate. But then again, I have to remember 2 things, most people can’t handle the truth, or stand to be called out on their $hit. We are all responsible.
#49 Smoking Man on 11.02.15 at 8:25 pm
I downloaded a new keyboard, no more mistakes. The bastard predicts my words perfectly.
Watch this. The connetic molecular theory.
USA road trip tomorrow, thank fking God…
Working from home sucks, Mrs smoking man in full blown menopause compounded with general female phycosis, pissed shes not coming on this trip, it’s a living hell right now.
WooHoo..free for awhile…
I may never comeback. It would take just one 300 lbs 80 year old black woman with a bad case of acne and poor hygine that says have a nice day sir…
That would be it..I would fall in love on the spot.
Wiffy would lose the F&$*-*%: asshole for ever.
___________________________________________
88 degrees and partly sunny, listening to Bob Marley today in the Bahamas. My road-trip has taken us to the Bahamas Smoking Man. The first thing my wife said is lets go get some groceries, beer, Irish whiskey and go find a boat. We are considering just purchasing a boat as we can run just about anywhere over the entire Island and really don’t need a car. I’m in she want to drive the power boat. First two days here looking good. I do really miss the scumbag bastard politics of Canada, however you don’t get much in the way of daily TV here mostly Florida TV feeds and CNN. Going to get better internet. Batelco BTC isn’t too bad and I need to get a phone here. Keep us updated on your forays without Mrs Smoking $itch. Don’t get into too much trouble. Send her taxi money for here Niagara Falls Casino. I’m sure she’ll have fun without you too.
You would think the population in Vancouver would be shrinking with no more houses for the “real Canadians”. All of these empty streets on Halloween, etc. Honestly, it is pretty sad when people think 1 person in 20 move the market and the other 19 have to go along…
Maybe that is why there is a1% and the rest. The 1% spend their time and effort on what they control rather than feeling victimized by ” others “. Good luck victims… Gnash your teeth some more.
#232 HabsFan YVR
“I wonder if the locals in Mexico, Belize, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Ecuador, Spain, Greece, etc. are as racist as Canadians are when we go there and buy up their property?”
………………
In a word – ABSOLUTELY!
I’m from Central America and can tell you that all the prime beach front property has been bought up by foreigners mainly from The US and Canada. As a result, there is hidden but deep resentment of “gringos”. And maybe, rightfully so.
The only locals who like it are the few property owners sitting on hectares of prime land who have seen their networths rise exponentially over the years. But they are by far the minority.
There is a lot of class warfare in these countries.
… transparency has to have light at all ends
http://www.icij.org/offshore/leaked-records-reveal-offshore-holdings-chinas-elite#
http://www.icij.org/offshore/british-virgin-islands-forbidden-city
==
http://www.scmp.com/news/world/article/1875255/eu-failing-tackle-tax-dodging-one-year-after-luxleaks-campaigners
======
Blackmoney: HSBC whistleblower seeks protection to reveal to India
Urban vs Rural. As a renter in 604, I am delighted with our vacant mainland Chinese neighbours. Without them, I would have moved long ago. They are the best neighbours I’ve ever had, and better than the obtuse, noisy locals who always wanted to meddle in our lives. ( I sell on ebay and amazon so I need to be close to shipping depots.)
The owner of our rental house is a stressed out East Indian who ages 3 years to every one of mine. He constantly complains about taxes. He likes us, because we do yard work. He hates the weather and complains he can never get warm. He often flies home to Dehli.
I met the Chinese neighbour once; he thought I was an owner, and through a translator he asked if I minded his yard turning into a bramble patch–due to lack of maintenance. I said, no, I did not mind and the returning wildlife and habitat would bring him good fortune. He left and I’ve not seen him in four years. The house is returning to the earth. I built the gate on his driveway, au gratis.
BC born, we saved and paid cash for a pristine acreage with our own mountain a few hours away in area code 250. The site makes Vancouver look like 8 Mile, Detroit. Vancouver does not have a monopoly on scenery. Vancouver does have neon, which draws moths, deluded locals, and foreigners into the urban gyr and leaves the rest of the map to us. (Kelowna excluded).
As winter approaches, and minus 40 rolls down from McBride through Wells Grey and into the BC interior, I value what only mother nature can offer… Solitude. Winter in Canada is the best fence to keep out urban opportunists, whether they be yellow, green, or fish belly white. Vancouver could slide into the ocean and many of the interior wouldn’t know until days or months later, when they will say, “Whatever.”
Family beagle and freedom first (recent posts on responsibility)
+1
The local CBC radio station talked about GT’s prediction at 11:30 AM but at 12:30 PM – the item mysteriously disappeared.
Let’s see how long the website keeps this story:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-mansions-sell-for-bargain-1.3302103
first off: man-made climate change is a THEORY based on “advanced” computer models.
===============
Controversies and criticisms
In 2011: Rep. Waxman calls for inquiry, re possibly misleading testimony on industry ties, funding sources
On January 25, 2011, Rep. Henry Waxman sent a letter to Rep. Fred Upton seeking to call in Michaels for questioning about his science and funding. In the letter, Waxman wrote that Pat Michaels testified before the Energy and Commerce Committee in February 2009 “that widely accepted scientific data had ‘overestimated’ global warming and that regulation enacted in response to that data could have ‘a very counterproductive effect.’ Among the scientists who testified before this Committee on the issue of climate change in the last Congress, Pat Michaels was the only one to dismiss the need to act on climate change … Dr. Michaels may have provided misleading information about the sources of his funding and his ties to industries opposed to regulation of emissions responsible for climate change.”[16]
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php/Patrick_J._Michaels
========
…”Asking how the climate denial ‘scientists’ are funded is an important part of uncovering whether this is legitimate science, or a climate replay of tobacco’s fraudulent racketeering enterprise,” Mr. Whitehouse said. “No one is saying the industry ‘scientists’ should be silenced, just that the public should know how they’re paid.”
===========
The overwhelming majority of scientists who study climate change agree that human activity is responsible for changing the climate. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is one of the largest bodies of international scientists ever assembled to study a scientific issue, involving more than 2,500 scientists from more than 130 countries. The IPCC has concluded that most of the warming observed during the past 50 years is attributable to human activities. Its findings have been publicly endorsed by the national academies of science of all G-8 nations, as well as those of China, India and Brazil.
follow the money
see -May/June 2005 Issue
Put a Tiger In Your Think Tank
ExxonMobil has pumped more than $8 million into more than 40 think tanks; media outlets; and consumer, religious, and even civil rights groups that preach skepticism about the oncoming climate catastrophe.
Herewith, a representative overview.
=====
The Coal Industry’s “ICE” Campaign (1999)
“Those strategy papers, developed by the polling firm, Cambridge Reports, recommended moreover that the campaign specifically target “older, less-educated men” and “young, low-income women” in districts which get their electricity from coal and which, preferably, have a Representative on the Energy Committee of the House of Representatives. ”
======
the common man vs the libertarian man
http://newdeal.feri.org/wallace/haw23.htm
Henry A. Wallace
An article in the New York Times, April 9, 1944.
I love the smell of white people self-righteously calling other white people racist in the morning
Well…….Racism has become the law of the land……with ‘no limit mortgages’ for new comers only. if that isn’t a sad commentary on the politically correct HAM deniers I don’t know what is.
All a ‘new comer’ has to do is have his mortgage broker on the line to a chartered bank and keep raising the bid until locals are priced out….how nice for them.
#260 jess
“ExxonMobil has pumped more than $8 million into more than 40 think tanks; media outlets; and consumer, religious, and even civil rights groups that preach skepticism about the oncoming climate catastrophe.”
8 million?!??!
U.S. government spends around 25 BILLION per year on “global warming” related research/subsidies.
yes, follow the money…
gtrz4peace # 241,
“Climate change is REAL. IT IS MAN-MADE”
—————————————
Wow….lots of EMOTION there G4P.
How bout we calm down and have a look at some basic math.
The following is from: M. A. Kominz, Western Michigan University, 2001.
http://curry.eas.gatech.edu/Courses/6140/ency/Chapter10/Ency_Oceans/Sea_Level_Variations.pdf
————————————–
Quote from Kominz pdf: “For example, about 20 000 years ago, great ice sheets covered northern North America and Europe. The volume of ice in these glaciers removed enough water from the oceans to expose most continental shelves. Since then there has been a sea level rise (actually from about 20 000 to about 11 000 years ago) of about 120 m.”
————————————–
OK, the math.
Glaciers melted raising the sea level 120 M (393 ft) within the last 20,000 years.
120,000 millimetres (120m) divided by 20,000 years
= 6 MM rise in sea level, per year.
Here is why.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles
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Quote from Kominz pdf: “This is just the most recent of many, large changes in sea level caused by glaciers, These variations in climate and subsequent sea level changes have been tied to quasi-periodic variations in the Earth’s orbit and the tilt of the Earth’s spin
axis.”
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Is climate change real?
Of course.
Is it a cyclical natural event that last occurred 2,000 to 20,000 years ago, without Man emitting, any Co2.
Is the sea level currently rising at a rate anywhere near, 6MM per year?
Nope.
Please explain why we are all doomed again?
#251 Andre
Alcohol and pot are both drugs. I see the havoc caused world wide by all illegal drugs and alcohol causes more problems than all drugs combined. No family does not have a relative whose lives have been destroyed by one or the other. However, I do realize it is impossible to win an argument against insanity. It is the same as trying to argue with a smoker. Yes, I do live by my placing my own Freedom First. Those of us who do, know how much fun it is, those who don’t, have no idea how much fun we are having. Also, as usual, follow the money. People are being hoodwinked.
263 saskatoon on 11.03.15 at 5:40 pm
check that date of that article…. Mon Apr. 18, 2005 2:00 AM EDT and perhaps read the rest of the articles
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2005/05/put-tiger-your-think-tank
…”EXXONMOBIL’S FUNDING OF THINK TANKS hardly compares with its lobbying expenditures—$55 million over the past six years, according to the Center for Public Integrity. And neither figure takes much of a bite out of the company’s net earnings—$25.3 billion last year. Nevertheless, “ideas lobbying” can have a powerful public policy effect.”
http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2005/05/some-it-hot
http://www.publicintegrity.org/search?query=exxon&submit=#gsc.tab=0&gsc.q=exxon&gsc.page=1
Top 50 donors to ballot measure committees
http://www.publicintegrity.org/2015/02/05/16678/who-tried-buy-2014-ballot-measures
#241 gtrz4peace on 11.03.15 at 2:44 pm
….You science-denying luddites are contributing to the extinction of the ecosystem we all depend on — as we know it — and quite simply can no longer be allowed to endanger the rest of us.
Climate change is REAL. IT IS MAN-MADE and luckily many nations are stepping up to try and do something about it.
Regrettably Canada put too many of its eggs in the corporate polluters’ fossil fuel basket.
But this can be changed — and lots of those “in the know” are seeing the shift, which is why Canadian farmland is being bought up at a fast pace now.
We can become a beacon for renewable energy
——-
Do yourself a favour, go on flightradar24 and take a good gawk at how many steel birds are in the air and where they are flying. Canada looks like a blank wasteland. Canadians aren’t the problem.
Ten million years ago the Chilcotin plateau formed and spread half mile thick lava rendering my region unihabitable. Then came multiple ice ages. The current ecosystem in my region is only 14,000 years old. We know this because there’s no fossil record prior.
15k years ago, much of north america was a mile deep in ice. The impending methane release is as inevitable as tectonic movement.
Earlier, the tars sands bubbled up naturally to the surface rendering northern alberta region uninhabitable for thousands of years.
Carbon is not the big factor in global warming. Water vapor is. It’s systemic.
If you do not consider the Himalayan Carbon Sink in your arguments on global climate change, anyone with an iota of scientific methodology will write you off as a loon. Best to educate yourself on the key factors in the carbon cycle. http://recherche.crpg.cnrs-nancy.fr/spip.php?article1150&lang=fr
http://www.geo.cornell.edu/geology/research/derry/publications/CFLDerry97.pdf
Have humans evolved into parasites? Perhaps, but that is a different issue and filed under ‘scourges’.
Lastly, I put my money where my mouth is and personally stewarded two ecological preserves in BC. One is in 604 ALR, the other is provincially designated, re my comments above. I earned the right to bitch. While your passion is evident, ranting entrenches some people into a defensive posture. Yet, I also lose it on occasion. I get frustrated. However, at street level, I involve others in positive actions they can do for individual conservation and to change their consumption habits. Invite, rather than accuse and then attitudes of your audience will change. I’m a vegetarian financing a natural ecological preserve, yet even I get my back up when some self appointed inquisitor goes on a witch hunt. Keep it cool. Be the sane, calm voice.
People buy stuff to fill a void, so I design renewable products and sell them online. When they buy from me, I give them a dusting of joy and they feel good. No one is forcing them. It’s win/win.
Lastly, the enemy is anyone who says “we (plural) have plans for you (singular).” Humans inherently err. Groups of humans err more often. All humans are in this together, even if I choose to live remotely. (I’m a sinner for typing this on plastic.) But smile… Many of the residents here, in my rural region, share your attitude of conservation and preservation, and that should give you some solace. Btw, my wife owns a gun. She does yoga and also is a vegetarian. Sorry to muddy the paradigm.
Signed,
4000 hectares strong and home to indigenous ponderosa, puma, and big horn sheep.
Thank Garth for this post
Please could you explain the following:
>Not if you remove equity in a tax-deductible fashion. — GarthD
I just want to learn
Thank you
#264. Black sheep
6mm equates to ~48 inches over 20 years.
…..or 8 feet over 40 years.
That is a serious scenario if you’re living in Richmond close to YVR or on the oceanfront.
The house I lived in in 1960 should be almost totally submerged by now, but it isn’t.
Hmmmmm….6mm. Someone’s math is wrong. Or is everyone’s math wrong?
I’ve been reading your Blog for over 5 years and agree on a lot of points, but your ongoing denials about overseas buying in GVRD and its impacts is laughable.
I live here (South Surrey) and the radical transformation of our neighborhoods even in the last 2 years is unbelievable. Rental Detached homes are almost 100% foreign owned (I know, I rent and have done a lot of looking). Many houses are largely vacant or temporarily occupied (we live next to them). I could go on and on but of course it can all be argued as anecdotal.
The problem is that unless the powers that be (ie. our Government) actually analyze the situation, all we are left with is anecdotes. For some reason, there seems to be a low desire to find out what is actually occurring.
Why is this? There definitely are a lot of people getting rich off this current state of affairs. Land developers, earlier owners cashing out, flippers, real estate agents (I’m married to one). The Mayor of Vancouver’s biggest campaign donor was, of course, a major real estate marketer.
I’m not sure which vested interest you a defending here, but the stance of this blog on overseas buyers seems to defy the obvious facts on the ground.
http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevelclimate.html
Sea level can rise by two different mechanisms with respect to climate change. First, as the oceans warm due to an increasing global temperature, seawater expands—taking up more space in the ocean basin and causing a rise in water level. The second mechanism is the melting of ice over land, which then adds water to the ocean.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level
Sea level
Saturday, July 12, 2014
Why it matters
In the United States, almost 40% of the population lives in relatively high population-density coastal areas, where sea level plays a role in flooding, shoreline erosion, and hazards from storms. Globally, 8 of the world’s 10 largest cities are also near a coast, according to the U.N. Atlas of the Oceans. In urban settings along coastlines around the world, rising seas threaten infrastructure necessary for local jobs and regional industries. Transportation, energy production, and waste disposal systems that support these populations are also at risk from rising waters. In the natural world, rising sea level is a stressor on coastal ecosystems that provide recreation, protection from storms, and habitat for fish and wildlife.”
#269 family beagle on 11.03.15 at 6:50 pm
“4000 hectares strong and home to indigenous ponderosa, puma, and big horn sheep.”
__________________________________
As commendable as your environmental efforts are, the reality is that if 7 billion people in the world tried to live like you, life would be miserable and our effects on the environment would be infinitely worse.
If it is really a ‘natural ecological preserve’ then I assume you’re burning wood or peat for heat. If the entire northern hemisphere did this we would quickly wipe-out the forests and actually release more carbon because of the low heating value of these compared to natural gas. I’m sure you’ve had this explained to you already. You’re actually burning a fuel that creates MORE pollution then the equivalent natural gas.
So there’s is no moral high ground. It makes you feel good inside, you enjoy living like this, and that’s your right but you are not an example of how others should live, in fact you are the opposite.
I won’t do the math but 7 billion people living in small groups with 4000 hectares each (not even possible) we would quickly descend into war, chaos, wipe-out livestock, forests and ecosystems.
So as much as you disagree with modern society it has created an enormous amount of good, wealth and improved quality of life.
_________________________________
#243 gtrz4peace on 11.03.15 at 2:44 pm
But this can be changed — and lots of those “in the know” are seeing the shift, which is why Canadian farmland is being bought up at a fast pace now.
___________________________________
geez, I wish I could be ‘in the know’.
People could also be buying up farmland because the middle class is growing and standards of living are improving worldwide. Creating an increase demand for reliable food supplies.
This puts pressure on food prices, leads to tech innovation, leads to increased production capacity. This prevents mass poverty and also creates fat profits because companies can produce more food for less cost and sell to a bigger market.
So unless you want to keep a billion people in poverty while maintaining your standard of living then you have no moral high ground. In fact, you are despicable and a hypocrite.
And the end result of all this? Increased demand for fossil fuels. Unfortunately, you can run a massive farm production with a Prius. So let those ‘in the know’…well know, that they are wrong. And to stop wishing poverty on people. Or maybe in a few years we won’t be worried about rich-chinese pricing us out of real estate but pricing us out of food supplies.
It is the environmentalists who will do more damage to the environment in the long run. Not only that but they will try and create poverty along the way.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2015-11-02/china-s-money-exodus
Yellow peril
I lived in Van 1986 on.
The chinnese began to move into Richmond (Rich man)
Now thier wall to wall. Migration has been going for the whole time. Nothings changed. Im married to a Philippino that migrated here 37 years ago. There was certain critera to come t Canada. Now I Think they just mesure the thickness of your wallet.
This is my personal view. The Chinnese are some of the ruddest people I’ve experienced. Maybe thats because they come from a place where theres 1.4 billion and climbing. Thats is the root of the modern worlds problems. Theres not enough to go around. Animals are the first to go. This is an unsustainable trajectory. I prefer animals over most humans.
Re. Post 60
So Garth’s response to my post with real observations on foreign activity in Vancouver RE, is a sarcastic, “you want a wall”, which I can only assume is a reference to Trump and inference to racism.
A few things:
1) My comment simply discussed my observations as someone who has developed properties and is in the marketplace. The evidence of HAM in Vancouver is overwhelming, despite the efforts of the BCREA and Banks to downplay it, and the incompetence of government to study it.
2) While I do think the BCREA and the banks are downplaying HAM because they have an economic incentive to do so, I don’t believe there is a government conspiracy to withhold this data. The public, for some reason, attributes politicians with god-like status, when the reality is they are really ordinary people with different motivations and an incompetent and unmotivated bureaucracy supporting them. I’ve dealt with many of these people and the whole bureaucratic system is truly incompetent. Christy Clark is also bought and paid for the big developers and is highly conflicted. Her top economic advisors include Bob Rennie. Not a conspiracy but she surround herself with her big doners and that is just a political reality.
3) Garth doesn’t live in Vancouver so should really ridicule us and call us racists. I suspect his community is not affected by the same challenges. The Canadian political and corporate agenda over the past 30 years has been to create a secular and multicultural agenda and Canadians are generally supportive of immigrants to come to our country, regardless or race, embrace our culture, even if they maintain their own heritage, and contribute to our economy.
People in Vancouver are not seeing that from Mainland Wealth affect, which is why the outrage is not directed to the also very large South Asian and Filipino communities.
Garth again doesn’t understand it, because he doesn’t live in this community and really doesn’t understand how it all works.
I understand it well. A third of YVR’s population is Asian, and the majority were born there. You are so typical in lumping everyone together based on ethnicity or racial characteristics. Vancouver is an adolescent city in a global context. When it grows up, as Toronto has (where vast, and wealthy, areas are entirely Asian – and nobody is fussed) guys like you will be ignored as dinos. — Garth
– And all those “Chinese” buyers have gotten their mortgages from canadian banks. Ouch.
http://jugglingdynamite.com/2015/11/02/big-canadian-bank-mortgages-behind-asian-buying/
How is that possibly (a) news or (b) interesting? — Garth
@278:
– it undermines the idea that real estate in Vancouver is propped up by chinese money coming out of China.
– It certainly was news for me. Because people were to led believe that it was “flight capital” from China.