Forty clicks outside of Calgary, where the rich O&G execs used to flee to their estates in Priddis, things are unhappy. It was just twenty months ago, when oil was $100.55 a barrel, that Sotheby’s listed the most expensive house ever to hit the market in Alberta – $38 million for a 5,000-foot pile of excess on 200 acres of ranchland.
Things sure look different when viewed through the lens of $46 oil. If a recent auction means anything, and it seems to mean plenty, luxury real estate has also declined by more than half. Ten weeks ago an auction in Priddis saw a $2.9 million, 5,500-foot mansion sell for a discount of 62%. The buyer paid $1.1 million – the price of a dumpy 1970s Vancouver Special. A neighbouring estate suffered the same fate, tumbling from $3.9 million to a mere $1.5 million, or less than the materials used to build it.
Appraised $2.9 million, sold $1.1 million
___________________________________________________
Neither sale was included in stats compiled by the Calgary Real Estate Board. That’s helped Cowtown realtors maintain the fiction that prices dipped a little as oil collapsed, but have since stabilized with the market able to “weather the storm.” The official count to the end of October looks like this: sales down 31%, listings up 19% and average prices lower by just 6%. This is amusing, and bitter, to people who can’t sell their homes unless they’re willing to take a discount closer to 15%.
Plus, there’s more to come.
Shell pulled the plug on a major energy project last week, walking away from an investment of $2 billion. Weekly we hear of more majors punting workers. It looks like the oil patch has so far shed 11% of its workforce – some of the best-paying jobs in the nation. Alberta lost about 54,000 jobs in the past 12 months, or 3% of the entire workforce, and Saskatchewan almost 7,000.
No wonder the number of folks moving to Alberta has crashed 50%, or that real estate values in most of the province – along with Saskatchewan – will follow. Nor is the rest of Canada immune, as this pathetic blog has been trying to point out for a while. In vain.
Everybody should pay attention to what’s going on. Oil – our largest export – has lost more than half its value. Thus, our national income has dropped. Prices for copper, nickel and grains have fallen 50% or more within the past five years. Now we have slagging demand in China, where GDP growth has fallen the most since the financial crisis. Construction and manufacturing activity in that country – the largest consumers of steel, zinc and copper – have plopped.
There are 400,000 more tons of copper being produced a year than the world needs. The US has so much oil (and is running out of places to put the stuff) that it will soon begin selling off a hunk of its vast underground strategic reserves. And the weird thing is that unlike the last time we had a commodity collapse (2009) the world is now growing and expanding, not contracting into recession.
This suggests the commodity surplus might be structural. We’ve become too efficient at digging up, growing and sucking stuff, while at the same time personal technology is changing the world. Like shuttering stores and sending retail sales online.
Maybe this will ultimately be good for the planet, but it’s tough news for a country which has lots of land, oodles of commodity resources, and relatively few people, busy selling each other million-dollar houses with borrowed money. Look at the at StatCan’s latest payroll report. Damn scary.
BTW, don’t confuse the government’s ‘labour force survey’ with its ‘payroll employment and hours’ survey – they’re different ways of measuring essentially the same thing. The first one showed a modest jobs gain in August, and the latter is evidencing a jobs disaster – the loss of 58,600 positions in the same month. The media feeds off the first one. Economists believe the second is closer to the truth, since it includes actual data from the CRA.
So, here’s what to focus on: wages for Canadians as a whole are shrinking (by about 8% a year), and in the last 12 months we created 0.3% more jobs while the population increased 1.3%. At the same time, the value of our exports declined, decreasing national wealth. So we did what? We elected a government promising to fix things by taxing the successful, spending billions a year we don’t have, making it harder for citizens to save and giving people money for having children. At least we’re amusing.
I think they’re getting all this in Priddis. Losing half your equity does that.
Of course, the really smart money saw it coming. Still does.
268 comments ↓
Furrrrrrrrrrst!!!!
….no comments ??…..FIRST!!!
I am in the construction industry and am seeing change coming, lots of undercutting. I have sold and elected to rent and work on building a balanced portfolio as I see retiring in Canada, as I dreamed, becoming more difficult in the future years. Have taken away some good advice from this site since day 1, keep up the good work Garth. Overhead has dropped and saving rate has increased, hoping to relax in 5 years or so, with the knowledge and investments I have acquired.
Great post and so early too! I woke up extra early just to read it ;) I hope I can get a house for 60% of!
Garth
Have you considered moving out west….with your rock star online presence why not consider it?????
I’ve been keeping an eye on RE prices in an area right outside of the GTA for about 5 months. Prices, for a lot of listings, have been reduced by about 7%.
Are people tapped out or finally learning?
At least there will be more immigrants. Don’tknow if there are jobs for them though. But they will find something to do, be it the super market or taxi drivers or nurses. They will bring their life savings and their skills and their family. Canadian economy is immigration and government economy, sorry to say. Private sectors that depend on immigration related are pretty big in the Canadian economy now, International students, housing, banking, construction, etc.
“This suggests the commodity surplus might be structural. We’ve become too efficient at digging up, growing and sucking stuff…”
No. ZIRP has allowed non-profitable companies (particularly in oil & gas) to stay afloat, that’s why we have a surplus. Even at $100 a barrel these fracking companies weren’t profitable. These zombie companies exist not just in commodities but other sectors as well. Interest rates so low for so long have messed up capitalism. If you’re expecting 6% annualized returns (or was is 7%, i forget) on your investments over the next 15 or 20 years then God bless you.
There is so much wrong with that paragraph it’s unworthy of a response. — Garth
“Vulching” has its benefits.
A nation of “Uber” chauffeurs with leased luxury Cadillac SUV’s delivering expensive meals on demand to my Priddis estate….. I cant wait.
http://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=5&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CEMQFjAEahUKEwiO3YK8qu_IAhXB1x4KHcdMCLg&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.healthychefdelivery.com%2F&usg=AFQjCNEuhgx4vW2C_APaHIilWKr2K5mZPA&sig2=_faVIFGb_-pnZNOJcmBlXA
As far as Alberta goes, i think this is only the start, with a much more structural change coming to the downside.
Masked in the turmoil that has started you can probably find that some of the big and middle sized oil companies are voting with their wallets by not choosing to buy or develop and in fact, like Shell, are terminating and walking away from massive sunk costs. I think Suncor’s bid on the Canadian Oilsands is probably much less than the replacement cost, even at current costs. And the fact that Husky appears willing to actually dispose of some properties ( if a market actually exists ) is unusual for them as well. Also the fact that there appears to be no one so far to make a competitive bid against Suncor also looks like a tell as well.
As to the Priddis properties, the only caveat that i would have is to wonder whether they were marketed openly and fairly or whether there may have been some shenanigans in the disposal process as it seems a bit too much too soon yet.
Between the ” Kid ” as the new PM and Notley et al, amongst the rest of the Bollocks there is no way this place ain’t toast though.
The great neoliberal debt based Ponzi scheme has begun to unravel. The GTA homeDEBTRENTER in 2020 is facing:
-prices down 20-30%
-property taxes up by 30% or so
-new fees for storm water (starting in Mississauga in 2016) and a host of other services. Chicago just raised property taxes by the most ever and on top of that they will start charging $10/month
-unemoyment rate of about 15-18%
Much of what these moron governments do is not to help people, it is to keep taking more and more to pay the interest on the massive hoard of debt taken on by bought and paid for politicos that mostly benefitted state cronies and special interests
Mount Royal and Britannia are circling the drain as well, with Roxboro next, from what I am hearing and seeing. All throughout the Calgary area the stress is starting to permeate any talk of real estate and those bloated valuations. People are feeling desperate, caught between reality and their ridiculous expectations of what they think things should be. So sad.
I will say it again, Albertans:
If you think you might want to sell and move in the next few years, DO IT NOW.
List for a REASONABLE price and AGGRESSIVELY sell, this month.
Once winter fully sets in and the impact of the Paris climate conference is upon is, it will be too late, likely for another generation.
(But by 2040, who knows, could be another boom, huh?)
This province’s unbelievable self-delusion is going to be toxic – it will lead to even more dramatic price drops down the road. I fully expect many Calgary homes, in prime areas, to be sold well below $300,000 within just a couple of years.
Doom and gloom, doom and gloom, doom and gloom. Garth what’s with all the doom and gloom. Did someone egg your house last night. All this scary talk is what keeps people from socking away more in their investment account.
Meanwhile the sun is shining and it’s a beautiful fall day, maybe you should take the dog for a walk.
“BTW, don’t confuse the government’s ‘labour force survey’ with its ‘payroll employment and hours’ survey – they’re different ways of measuring essentially the same thing. The first one showed a modest jobs gain in August, and the latter is evidencing a jobs disaster – the loss of 58,600 positions in the same month. The media feeds off the first one. Economists believe the second is closer to the truth, since it includes actual data from the CRA.”
There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.
This is also generally true of the numbers coming out of the US. Double seasonally adjusted data, downward revisions after the fact, etc… The FED has the real data, and there is a reason they are not raising rates.
Witnessing similar thing happening on my street in Unionville. Last year 1.8, this summer 1.75, last week 1.66. All homes are 30 years old built by same builder. Winter is coming…
Also there is bigger things to worry about than Calgary RE.
For example, your time stamps for the comments is off by an hour. AGAIN.
Liberals’ new motto once it all comes crashing down on Junior’s watch in 3, 2, 1:
“This is all Harper’s fault, his policies led to this…” (as he continues the same policies)
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/vancouver-house-buying-frenzy-leaves-half-empty-neighbourhoods/article27056534/
I understand why copper and nickel have dropped in prices. But why–grains? We all have to eat don’t we.
referring to: ” Pond Scum” in a previous post of yours…
http://money.cnn.com/video/technology/2015/09/10/elon-evolution-solayzme.cnnmoney/index.html
Pond Scum Rocks !
#17 YVR Fed Up with the ‘Game’ on 11.01.15 at 10:48 am
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/vancouver-house-buying-frenzy-leaves-half-empty-neighbourhoods/article27056534/
—————————————-
A new “Ghost City” being built on this side of the Pacific… You don’t say?
That’s what eating too much candy does to you.
They’d have to pay me to live in a place called Priddis.
“…giving people money for having children.”
Lovely! I just filled in a full sheet of Curmudgeon Bingo!
Seriously though, it is a difficult problem. Too many people on the planet? Too many dependents? Too many entitlements? Too many neglected, abused or homeless children? Forthcoming demographic imbalance? Climate change?
What to do? Get re-elected.
Time for a defensive portfolio?
60- 40 becomes 40-60 etc. Reenter the market in stages, taking advantage of blood in the street days.
Tech is bubbleisious IMHO.
Smoking Man’s dog.
Expect the media to ramp up coverage of the challenge of climate change in the next weeks. Another reason for Albertans to sell their homes quickly to greater fools, climate change deniers, Flames fans, people who love snow in June, etc..
This radio really grabbed my attention. Tim Flannery, a scientist and author from Australia, speaking of how the Great Barrier Reef will be dead and gone within just two to three decades.
Imagine that. Dead. Gone.
The Great Frickin’ Barrier Reef!!!!
That’s just the beginning folks, and it will get much worse if we do nothing, as we have done under Harper and his pals.
Albertans thinking the world will just turn away blindly if we continue with the tar sands just don’t have a clue what we are heading into.
http://www.cbc.ca/radio/thesundayedition/tim-flannery-on-climate-change-in-praise-of-the-humble-donkey-tribute-to-leon-bibb-justice-lynn-smith-1.3296242
#18 unbalanced on 11.01.15 at 11:06 am
I understand why copper and nickel have dropped in prices. But why–grains? We all have to eat don’t we.
Sure. However there has been a lot of land recently opened up for agriculture or brought back into production. Many improvements in productivity. And attention is being paid to waste in production and processing.
I’ve seen thousands of acres come back into production just in Eastern Ontario. Land that was first cleared by the Loyalists and then allowed to revert to bush has been dug up and now produces corn and soybeans on an industrial scale.
In other parts of the world – South America, Africa, Indonesia – grasslands or forest are being turned to agriculture.
Solution to all the empty houses in Vancouver.
Use them to house Syrian refugees, just as they do in Germany.
Maybe Justin can get the Nobel Price for Peace, that eluded Merkel.
There is no growth and Demographics is destiny. There isn’t a country in the OECD without an inverted population pyramid outside of the USA, and ‘barrels’ aren’t much better either. With China sliding into an inverted pyramid its pretty much over for global engines of growth. The worst of the inverted hurt the most first – Greece, Spain, Japan, Italy… mired in decades long, or soon to be decades long recessions. Germany escaped by a hair by forseeing and cranking up the Mittelstand to Global exporter. They’ll get whacked too yet. The Anglo countries take giant gasbag housing bubbles into this. Tokyo real estate sells for 25% what it did at the top in 1990. Plug that into your computations and tell me what Anglostan looks like in 2032???
The pop. pyramids get worse, its a slow steady grind to fair value. Priddis is just where the creamy middle ends up 15 years from now….
#12 Broke Dick on 11.01.15 at 10:20 am
Doom and gloom, doom and gloom, doom and gloom. Garth what’s with all the doom and gloom. Did someone egg your house last night. All this scary talk is what keeps people from socking away more in their investment account.
Meanwhile the sun is shining and it’s a beautiful fall day, maybe you should take the dog for a walk.
///////////////////////////////////////////////
Actually all this scary talk makes me want to put more in my investment account.
Things don’t look to good for me at the moment,just lost my job as the company I work for is closing down.
I am also on the wait list for two surgeries and the wrong side of 40.
So with money about to get a hell of a lot tighter I wired 5k to my Australian portfolio yesterday so that it can keep chugging along during this uncertain time.
I’ve got this nagging feeling that later on in life I will be punished by the government for trying to look after myself when I really should have been living hand to mouth like a lot of other people do.
I don’t earn a lot of money but I believe that it is my responsibility to fend for myself and if you have never had a lot of money it is easier to go without all the toys that people waste their money on.
We pay 1050 a month for rent in Toronto (Etobicoke), a 2 bedroom my fiancé and I. She wants to move, I have been stalling but not sure how long I will be able to. We will definitely have to pay about 4000 more per year for anything nice, I asked her exactly where that money is going to come from. Hopefully not the 10 grand in stocks/RRSP I’ve been managing to put away the last few years.
#18 unbalanced on 11.01.15 at 11:06 am
I understand why copper and nickel have dropped in prices. But why–grains? We all have to eat don’t we.
———————
Increased supply.
Buy low – sell high. Sounds simple enough but………
Quite early today, guess the time change…? No matter, a good read, and a worrisome forecast.
Well, everybody who reads the ‘news’ could see with demands worldwide slowing down, all things would slow.
Exceptions being debt stress, bankruptcies, and fear.
Will such a ‘slow down’ impact your investments? Dam straight it will. How much it will impact it is unknown, but the commodity guys are not looking too great from my perch. Yes, I have oil, copper, and healthcare. Geezers we have, demand for the rest if more ‘iffy.’
So it goes…
Wake me when things start to perk the other way -they always do. During the wait, I’ll do what the smart ones always do.
#31 Hanging on on 11.01.15 at 11:42 am
We pay 1050 a month for rent in Toronto (Etobicoke), a 2 bedroom my fiancé and I. She wants to move, I have been stalling but not sure how long I will be able to. We will definitely have to pay about 4000 more per year for anything nice, I asked her exactly where that money is going to come from. Hopefully not the 10 grand in stocks/RRSP I’ve been managing to put away the last few years.
Why does she want to move. $1050 for 2 bed is cheep!
Gee Garth with things so dire here in Canada we should bring in tons more immigrants who need government assistance. I am not against immigrants just not now and not ones who do not share our values, manners or philosophy. It just causes friction.
Alberta politicians already took a wage and benefits freeze. I hope the entire government takes a three year wage freeze with no sneaky language that it will all be made up after three years.
Actually, we elected a federal government that promised to stimulate the economy by funding massive investments in infrastructure. And this is one of the few things likely to work.
Only half the deficit spending is for building stuff. The rest is just, well, spending. — Garth
Well, I was aware of the difference in the two August jobs reports (thanx to a piece in the Slop&Pail) (and the China Story died some time ago) but the 8% drop in Canuckistan wages: holy cow! (How about hours worked?)
How many years can you go with an annual 8% drop in wages? And not get cops breakin’ up street demonstrations of various sorts? (Especially with a household debt ratio over 160%.) Not too long: I read that the well-heeled unions will be out in the streets this month in Quebec already.
Canadian economy: FUBAR.
Thanks, Garth.
This is just the beginning.
re: # 9 Hicksville “Between the ” Kid ” as the new PM and Notley et al, amongst the rest of the Bollocks there is no way this place ain’t toast though.”
I live in Tofino BC..but visit family every year in Drayton Valley area. They’ve been there since mid ’60’s. My view on Alberta is positive..infastructure in and paid for ..roads, schools, hospitals, etc…educated populous, wealthy enough in the lst years to buy and pay for housing ( if they didn’t piss it away ) …set up business, etc. HOWEVER, where only a few years ago the worry was peak oil and rising energy prices….the 21st century changes the world as we know it…online retail, music, and much less demand for oil.
See Eric Morris Urban Planning Thesis . ” Morris points out that, by the late 1800s, large urban centers were “drowning in horse manure.” Not only were there no solutions in sight, people were making dire predictions:
In 1894, the Times of London estimated that by 1950 every street in the city would be buried nine feet deep in horse manure. One New York prognosticator of the 1890s concluded that by 1930 the horse droppings would rise to Manhattan’s third-story windows.”
and then there was Ford. No more horse shit.
#31 Hangin-on
Think of the finance (girlfriend), in the same light as the cheap apartment – a rental.
At this time, I would like to think of a prospective lifetime partner as just that. Being on a different plane i.e. wanting to ‘move’ with no logical reason tells me maybe that’s an early warning sign… I need to heed……
That’s just me… (going on 41 yrs with my first choice).
We awaken this morning to some more indicators of where our economy is going, from an Ontario perspective.
This morning, everyone in the province faces a hydro rate increase of 3.4%. More is expected in the years ahead. And the province is hell-bent on selling off hydro to pay its credit card bills – sounds like Mike Harris selling off the 407 all over again.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-hydro-rate-increase-1.3298396
Toronto taxi fares, interestingly, are dropping by 23% on the initial charge today, to compete with unregulated Uber. Sounds like many drivers say their incomes have already dropped a lot more the last year or so, competing with the upstart.
http://toronto.ctvnews.ca/toronto-taxis-to-drop-base-fare-starting-sunday-1.2636751
Increasing home costs and lost government assets. Decreasing wages and more precarious employment.
Throw in personal/housing debt, and a looming home price correction, and you’ve got four horseman in search of an apocalypse.
Straight ahead, we’re heading right into it.
I know you don’t like the zero guy, Garth, but I think this one may be of particular interest to you, fresh off the press:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-01/output-gap-appears-closed-feds-model-just-confirmed-december-rate-hike
Well, I’ll be damned. Bring on that December rate hike, and let the games begin!
Hi #26 ALBERTASTROPHE, re: climate changing issue
Thought you might be interested in having a look at how ‘Geoengineering’ may or may not be helping???
Anyway just some more info to thing about, see links.
And there is also the fluctuation in solar output…
(we humans think we are so smart, or are we really?
BTW, I’d be first to not claim to know it all.)
-Geoengineering And The Collapse Of Earth 2014 – THIS MUST BE SHARED!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c34U0Pwz4_c
http://www.geoengineeringwatch.org/
-Geoengineering Whistleblower ~ Ex-Military ~ Kristen Meghan, Hauppauge, NY, January 18th, 2014
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHm0XhtDyZA
-What Chemtrails Are Doing To Your Brain – Neurosurgeon Dr. Russell Blaylock Reveals Shocking Facts.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X3lW-TGGlk0
-Geoengineering Hidden In Plain Sight For Decades
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhLBW3b5WSM
#22 Ponzius Pilatus
Priddis is sw of Calgary right in the middle of the foothills with an absolutely fantastic view of Kananaskis.
Ponzius you are an ignorant person
Hi Garth
Prices dropping year over year of just 6 percent in Alberta where there is a financial disaster just tells you how strong housing is in the country.
GTA, for prices to drop 6 percent, will take years for it to occur. Employment is firm here, and immigration is strong.
If any imbalances occur in GTA, will quickly resolve itself with the thousands waiting on the sidelines to become home owners.
For most of Canada, housing is safest investment for people. Govt got your back, so you cant loose.
Garth I so do appreciate your reporting!
I warned a few friends 1.5 years ago that there would be a flame out. Cash always looks good then even at 2.5% I look like a hero. I also warned family 6 months befor on the US side about their pending housing collapse. They didn’t believe me as houses were going to the moon!!! Sadly 2 family members lost everything.
If your leveraged and hand to mouth then god help you near the end of a boom….and all booms end.
We can all take a lesson from these events on how to manage our lifes and avoid the maddness.
Cheers
I’ll still stick to my Couch Potato portfolio with 33% of the growth stuff in Canada.
But I have to admit my faith is being tested lately.
Boy, it’s a good thing we don’t have anything close to all that subprime lending stuff that brought down USA housing!
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/mortgage-fraud-on-the-rise-among-brokers-trying-to-help-clients-qualify/article27051297/
Some highlights from this article —-
-as early as 2012, it was known that about 10% of all mortgage applications were fraudulent
-banks officials at TD, Scotiabank and CIBC, among others, have directly been involved in falsifying documents – it’s not just small-time mortgage brokers doing this
-“cut and paste” is very common, faking documents and inflating salaries to seek mortgage approval, and is now an expected part of the mortgage trade, say insiders
The good news? Well, apparently the mortgage industry calls all of this “soft fraud”, so we can all rest easy. And the poor bank chap from BC who had to quit his TD mortgage job due to fraud has now been approved by the province’s financial regulator to work as an independent mortgage broker.
So all seems well. Carry on. It’s different here.
#40 lore is on target. Things change.
People generally hate change so much they will even deny change can happen while it is running them over. For the love of inflexibility, move on…
Let the doomers cry. Look for opportunities.
Can you do something with very cheap oil that you could never have done 3 or 4 or 5 years ago? Probably. Probably a lot of things.
If someone from a foreign land wants to buy a Canadian asset at 3X its worth, you should absolutely sell it to them. That brings cash into the economy that was not there before.
Can you do some tech thing impossible 5 years ago and make some money on it? Get on it.
If indeed we as a nation or world will be a bit poorer, there are even opportunities in that. Dollarama type businesses catering to the economically challenged (I shop there myself) become investment gold.
Change your views. Step back from the detail and go “big picture”. The world is changing, and the less time spent thinking you are in some time warp circa 2000 forever, the better off you can become.
If you have a need to believe in the stability of something, here it is:
Change happens. Change shakes out the stodgy and unimaginative like dust from a rug. Change creates opportunities. Change is good.
Imagine that. Dead. Gone.
The Great Frickin’ Barrier Reef!!!!
That’s just the beginning folks, and it will get much worse if we do nothing,
——————————–
i you you feel a deep and profound guilt for your responsibility in killing an underwater reef on the opposite side of the planet. If you are heating your house then it’s YOUR fault!
(sounds like just like the guy(climate ‘expert’ ‘scientist’ who said kids in uk will never see snow past the year 2000-whoops!)
get off the road. live in the dark. parkas and sorels inside the house. we need to save the hc’s for flying jt and his crew to paris and onward!
Forgot to mention the giant debt bubble o&g companies took out on the assumption of $80 dollar oil. Watch for the dominoes to start falling with the trillions of debt sloshing around and a oil recovery that hasn’t materialized
#42 Apocalypse2015
Mike Harris did not sell the 407. He leased it out. Stop spreading this misconception.
The 407 lease was necessary to pay down debts incurred by Bob Rae’s fiscal implosion.
Ontario still owns the 407. We get income from the taxes on its revenues. It is maintained for us free of charge. Many of our pension funds are invested in it.
What I would like to highlight is the comparison of the 407 to Hydro One. The 407 is a “luxury”, a toll highway which you have a choice in using – there are alternatives if you don’t want to pay. I have only ever used it on one occasion where I have had to pay out of my own pocket. Hydro One is not the same. Hydro is a necessity in this day and age, not a luxury. Customers – especially in rural areas (the ones who typically vote blue and as a result get the bum treatment from the Ontario Liberals) have no choice but to use Hydro One (and now get perpetually screwed) or go off the grid.
Please stop comparing the two.
This is nothing more than typical Wynne corruption (using the capital gained to reimburse gas plant scandal shortfalls), short-sightedness (loss of recurring revenue for an upfront capital injection), union-pandering-vote-buying (stock giveaway to employees of both H1 and OPG, for some reason) and punishment to those outside of her voting base in the GTA.
“This suggests the commodity surplus might be structural. We’ve become too efficient at digging up, growing and sucking stuff”
Garth that is the most scary thing I ever heard. I think I need to chill out and watch something a lot less scary like the Exorcist or Texas Chain Saw Massacre.
The Jaguar was at the hair salon yesterday, one of the busiest in Calgary. Stylist cutting the Jag’s hair advised several of his senior oil & gas clientele told him there would be more layoffs. Nobody is brushing this off anymore as a temporary ‘blip’. An oil price recovery above $60.00 is as likely as a return of Tupac. It isn’t just the big homes in places like Priddis. High earning O&G professionals who thought the good times would never end like the high life. Fancy SUV’s, second homes in the BC interior or Canmore, expensive vacations, and yikes, leveraged stock portfolios. Oh oh…..
I think it might finally be starting to sink in that this is not a normal market driven turndown. Global warming backed by real political will, no way to get the product to market (bye bye Keystone XL, etc), fundamental changes in the way energy is extracted and produced and the ‘know how’ being exported all around the world. None of that is ‘blip’ material, it’s a game changer. And I notice people are leaving the city. Now the talk is all about O&G layoffs, but the construction industry is right behind……..
I was at the bank this week and had this exchange:
Teller: (sees 400k self directed portfolio + cash) “I see you dont have a mortgage with us. Would you be interested in switching your mortgage to our bank?”
“No thanks, I don’t have a mortgage.”
Teller: “Oh! Well one of our advisors would love to help you get another!”
http://i.onionstatic.com/avclub/4384/43/16×9/960.jpg
If you can fog a mirror you can get a loan in Serf Nation. Our bank is practically falling over itself to sell us debt. It’s high school cringe-worthy.
in the global economy the big corps are totally focused on keeping the shareholder on board. these corps will do whatever it takes to make a dollar. their role is strictly to satisfy the shareholder and not to create jobs, innovation and creativity is designed to reduce workers and add dollars to the bottom line. to protect their bottom line they will use whatever method of fear mongering is available.
There is a wide gap between what the big corps say and what they do, and that gap is getting wider. This is what forces many people to vote either ndp or liberal.
The harpo policy makers created this big mess. Unfortunately the people will be taking the brunt of this mess.
as one old gezzer summed it up in the coffee shop. “ndp govt in alberta, liberal govt in Canada, the sun is shining today, EVERYTHING is GOOD”
“”Prices for copper, nickel and grains have fallen 50% or more within the past five years.””
In Canadian Dollars from Oct29 2010 (about $4.20)to Oct 29 2015($3.06) is actually about 27% drop not 50% as noted
Commodities are priced in US$. — Garth
I was having dinner with the family on Friday, and we got into the topic of housing. My brother has a 500k mortgage, his wife lost her job recently, his income is down about 30% this year (he’s in sales), he has quite a bit of credit card debt, and he admits there probably will be a slide in house prices going forward. And yet, he thinks I’m an idiot for being a renter and paying the landlord’s mortgage. LOL!
I’ve simply given up on trying to explain to my family why being a home owner is actually more expensive than renting. They can’t wrap their heads around what opportunity cost is, which is income that your downpayment can no longer bring in as it’s tied up in an asset that doesn’t make money. They don’t account for property taxes, maintenance, etc. They just compare rent payment vs mortgage payment and conclude it’s better to own than to rent. Sigh. I’ve given up. I’m happy with my balanced diversified portfolio (even though it’s down on the year, oh well, I’m hanging in there for 3 decades) and freedom from debt slavery.
Keep up the good work Garth, enjoyed today’s post.
Garth How does the real estate agent cartel get away with selective inclusion of only certain sales in the stats. Would love to call these criminals out on that.
The new Alberta is a state of mind.
Last time I worked on a contract in Alberta one of my co-worker ladies was wearing a fur-lined jean jacket. Elegance was nouveau and expense accounts were puffy. One lady had a house with a video system that would track her kids so that she would be able to find them in her huge house. Does anybody really need all this?
I just can’t imagine the conversation around the river rock fire pit when all this goes south.
Face it Garth, you are a doomer (although just on Canada FOR NOW).
I have been waiting for you to bash oil again as a contrarian signal, just like when you jumped on the band wagon “reporting” Goldman’s $20 price target. As if Goldman cared for anything except their derivative book which thrives off of volatility (not direction).
It is true that we are filling up in the US, but oil (and soon gas) are global, and the worlds’ stored reserves are barely above their long term average.
Moreover, those US wells have a 70% decline rate in the first year. You should expect that without drilling the production decline in the US will Accelerate!
BUY THE DIP, resources are forever cyclical! Do not listen to doomers.
I report on the sunny and doomy forecasts. Guess which have been more accurate? — Garth
#40 lore –
”See Eric Morris Urban Planning Thesis . ” Morris points out that, by the late 1800s, large urban centers were “drowning in horse manure.” Not only were there no solutions in sight, people were making dire predictions:
In 1894, the Times of London estimated that by 1950 every street in the city would be buried nine feet deep in horse manure. One New York prognosticator of the 1890s concluded that by 1930 the horse droppings would rise to Manhattan’s third-story windows.”
and then there was Ford. No more horse shit.”
I read somewhere that Ford had toyed with the idea with using the horse manure as a fuel source for his automobile. After several unsuccessful attempts at making it work he gave up. The reason being that “the shit kept hitting the fan”. Pretty shitty.
OK, I’m officially calling it: Calgary is Done.
With information that I have gathered over the last 24 hours, I’ll make a prediction that the real average selling price of a property in Calgary will decline in excess of 40% from the peak over the next two years. Any bets on how much that estimate is exceeded are fair. This includes both residential and commercial properties.
You can smell the fear…
And, these things are often contagious.
Consider yourself warned.
Garth has exposed the truth about what is happening with house prices in and around Calgary – down a lot more than what Calgary’s real estate board is willing to acknowledge and publish.
It’s interesting that Teranet’s index appears to have almost mirrored the Calgary board’s price index since the price of oil collapsed – both seem to claim that not much of a price decline has happened at all. However, now Garth has proof that the price decline in Calgary is significant.
Claims made by both indices should be looked at critically and the public should note that both indices are put together by groups that have a vested interest in keeping house prices high in Canada.
In contrast, the Case-Shiller index in the US is an independent source of housing market information and no such caution is necessary on the part of the American public.
The same thing has been happening in Victoria with the claims made by the local board through their index. Their claims certainly didn’t match what the monthly median price data indicated for individual areas of Greater Victoria until the end of 2013, when that information was no longer published.
It’s interesting that the price recovery shown by the local board’s index began exactly one month after that median data was no longer available to the public, in January 2014. It was a case of perfect timing on the part of the local board.
Teranet’s data for Victoria seems to support the local board’s (suspicious) index data as it does for Calgary.
#30 For those about to flop…
‘I’ve got this nagging feeling that later on in life I will be punished by the government for trying to look after myself when I really should have been living hand to mouth like a lot of other people do.’
Yup.
#62 Rock Beats Paper….
… Garth’s comment. Yes, suppose you, Garth tell us which report Doomer, vs Sunny has been more accurate?
I just based on my own experiences following your admonitions will venture a guess that Sunny has been more accurate.
Not to say that when seeing obvious stumbling blocks to one’s own well-being like inflated asset prices, or falling commodities, and demand, or even the changing of government to lollipop promises and unicorns all around
won’t be deleterious to one’s income moving forward.
Still, the balanced should weather the years ahead better than most, yet I would prefer to see where the Doomers vs Sunny reports shake out.
#62 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 11.01.15 at 2:43 pm
I follow a couple managers that shorted Oil last year..
Good luck with you bounce. Its a long way away…Commodities can stay sideways for years as they always do..I follow the brains and the facts…
There seems to be an inherent bias out there towards a higher oil price, despite the fact that global market dynamics have changed. In our opinion,
the $100 oil days are a thing of the past for now and we think that it will take years before the price goes back to $75 again. People had a tough
time adjusting to a change in supply/demand back in 2003, when there was strong demand and low growth in supply, and now seem to be looking
in the rear view mirror. Today, we believe that a new paradigm has arrived. Demand growth for oil is slowing because of 1) the economic challenges many emerging markets such as China are facing, 2) an aging population in the developed world (older people drive less), 3) cars are much more
efficient, we now have Tesla and huge growth in electric cars and 4) supply growth now thanks to new technology (multi-fracking) use for shale oil. When thinking about multi-fracking technology and its potential impact on supply growth moving forward it’s really quite simple. Let’s start with what it’s done for North America as it really hasn’t been used much elsewhere yet. U.S. production, for example, has increased by 1 mm barrels per day over the last 3 years before this recent correction in oil price. So if oil were to recover even to $70 per barrel (instead of $100), the rapid rise in
production could resume in a matter of months.
@#63 Ronaldo
“I read somewhere that Ford had toyed with the idea with using the horse manure as a fuel source for his automobile. After several unsuccessful attempts at making it work he gave up. The reason being that “the shit kept hitting the fan”. ”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Bullshit.
#26 ALBERTASTROPHE on 11.01.15 at 11:38 am
Expect the media to ramp up coverage of the challenge of climate change in the next weeks. Another reason for Albertans to sell their homes quickly to greater fools, climate change deniers, Flames fans, people who love snow in June, etc..
This radio really grabbed my attention. Tim Flannery, a scientist and author from Australia, speaking of how the Great Barrier Reef will be dead and gone within just two to three decades.
Imagine that. Dead. Gone.
The Great Frickin’ Barrier Reef!!!!
That’s just the beginning folks, and it will get much worse if we do nothing, as we have done under Harper and his pals.
Albertans thinking the world will just turn away blindly if we continue with the tar sands just don’t have a clue what we are heading into.
http://www.cbc.ca/radio/thesundayedition/tim-flannery-on-climate-change-in-praise-of-the-humble-donkey-tribute-to-leon-bibb-justice-lynn-smith-1.3296242
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Please name one period of time in the last 3.6 billion years that the climate hasn’t changed? Also exactly what % of climate change is natural and what % is man made? And please don’t quote that crap BS “97% of scientists agree” garbage. That statistic is as demonstrably fake as Hillary’s claims about the Benghazi video. Propaganda. Nothing more.
Fighting “Climate Change” is a meaningless fear-mongering tactic to soften up people for a new round of tax grabs. To paraphrase one of JFK’s old classmates said “It’s nothing more than a transfer of money from poor people in rich countries to rich people in poor countries”
It’s all bout the Benjamins. The Climate Change debacle cost the world economy $1.2 TRILLION last year and what good did it do? Zero. How can I say that? Easily and with great confidence. The Earth’s temperature has flatlined for the past 18 years and 9 months. So spending even $1 over the past 18 years 9 months on climate change has been a waste. Spending trillions is beyond criminal.
But as many claim, there is a “Social cost” to carbon. Perhaps there is, but if there is a “Social Cost” there must be a “Social Benefit”, which there obviously is as people like to keep warm. Studies have been done to show that the “Social Benefit” of carbon use is 100X greater than the social cost. Not using carbon is foolish in the extreme.
Besides, The Great Barrier reef is thriving, not dying. If anything, damage is done by eco-tourists using sunscreen which is highly toxic to reefs. Maybe we should ban eco-tourism? That would make more sense than the CO2 hocus pocus that scientifically illiterate politicians are blindly following.
There…. done… time to put on my Gore-Tex, drive down to Starbucks, have a latte using only the freshest beans flown in from Guatemala by charter jet, roasted over a natural gas burner, order an imported Italian biscotti and enjoy the fruits of a fossil fuel driven society. The only difference is that I freely acknowledge that fossil fuels support our luxury. Meanwhile while the hypocritically blindered Greenies pretend that it doesn’t and rail against it while they sit next to me Starbucks, drinking lattes, eating imported biscotti, and also wearing Gore-Tex.
Deliciously ironic.
It’s no wonder sales are slipping in Alberta, it would seem that they are all moving to Vancouver Island, nearly all our new neighbours are from Edmonton or Calgary…..
In Norway, oil is also the biggest export.
So, how the oil crash affecting them?
I’d glad you asked. They are swimming in cash and just passed a tax cut.
All of this thanks to terrible, terrible govmt policies Garth would never endorse.
http://www.thestar.com/news/atkinsonseries/2015/08/28/unlike-alberta-norways-economy-insulated-from-falling-oil-prices.html
Have a great Sunday folks
Garth, when you quote the price of oil, why do you not specify the grade? I should think you are aware the the typical quote generally cited by media is for West Texas Intermediate, while the quote for Alberta bitumen, Western Canada Select, is significantly lower? To me, this makes the Alberta picture even worse, particularly when you factor in the poorer exchange rate. C$41 per barrel of WCS only buys $30 USD in revenue. If I were a multinational, who needs to earn revenue in USD, is this not a horrible deal? Or am I missing something?
Fearing a (major) credit event in the next months. Maybe it’s the DB tremors resembling foreshocks, maybe the Valeant fiasco, could be oil swinging huge percentages daily, shocking October market performance, or Bill Bonner’s latest missive published on Wolstreet, Wolf’s own musing on junk loans, Draghi’s admission the slowdown is not temporary, San Fran’s FED Williams’ epiphany of just how effing clueless they are, and more I cannot remember right now. Oh, yeah, there was also dude Thomas, Comptroller of the Currency or something, having a flash of lucidity last week.
Just a really, really, REALLY bad feeling. Mushrooming forsale signs in the hood and on they daily route don’t help shaking it off, either.
“….the world is now growing and expanding, not contracting into recession.”
I nearly choked on my late espresso when I read this. Seriously Garth
Global GDP +3%. — Garth
Garth, some more time might have been spent researching the two home sales. New builds, overvalued, basically a clever way to advertise and move a property. Alberta is slowing, happened before and will happen again.
Since you have referenced Mike Fotiou before, here is his explantion of what happened.
http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2015/10/30/luxury-home-buyers-find-deep-discounts-in-calgary-area/
Fotiou is a realtor whose criticism of my Calgary analysis in the past proved spectacularly wrong. He has a monetary interest in the market. I don’t. — Garth
Oil again? Prices won’t stay low forever. We’ve got at least one more cycle before we manage to wean ourselves of hydrocarbons to any major degree. But prices aren’t going up again until supply gets taken out. Closing your eyes and wishing that demand growth is going to solve it soon, or natural depletion in fracked US wells is going to solve it soon? I don’t think so. High cost sources are going to have to be shut in. Producers will go broke, bondholders will be stiffed, and the majors with the low debt balance sheets and the great cash flow are going to be the ones left to pick up the pieces at a discount. And I wouldn’t bet on that whole carbon tax/climate change thing blowing over any time soon..
Why some companies would want to sell light/sweet assets now and concentrate on heavy/sour/unconventional plays is a bit of a headscratcher to me. It seems like a geared, directional bet on prices rising sooner than other people expect. Risky.
Yes, Priddis is the canary in the coal mine in the Calgary area. Though the RE fear and downward trend is spreading fast in Alberta, from Fort McMoney, to Edmonton, Red Deer, and Calgary to all surrounding areas too.
However, my monthly expenses keep going down, from rent to food to clothes and everything else I pay for. The true “on sale” pricing is remarkably lower. I always like to be in a position to take advantage of buying everything at a lower price. Whether I am buying a new Layzee Boy Recliner or a house for 50-60% off, it all helps.
Also Garth is dead on about owning ETF REIT’s, he even told people when to buy them, and Preferred ETF’s like CPD and others, which I also own, And Garth also told people when to buy these too.
Nothing is consistently profitable and low risk at the same time as always being liquid, balanced, and diversified. Any idiot can do it. I know. I like always having cash, cash flow, multiple income streams, and of course, 0 debt.
Learned that the RE agents were against Viewpoint.ca re Nova Scotia real estate so, apparently it no longer exists. Correct me, if I’m wrong. Anyways, we will not be buying another property.
#44 Greg on 11.01.15 at 12:43 pm
Hi #26 ALBERTASTROPHE, re: climate changing issue
—–
Looks like chemtrails have rotted your brain. Squadrons of planes spraying the earth 24/7 as part of a diabolical plot by Dr blofeld.
# 71 Oceanside
You are probably a realtor.
SFH sales in Greater Victoria have been below Victoria’s long term average so far in 2015.
You probably wouldn’t know that from reading what the local board has written in their public releases.
They would much rather compare SFH sales in 2015 to sales totals from some of the most recent years which is extremely misleading. It is misleading because in Victoria we have seen record low or close to record low SFH sales totals in recent years.
There is no data to make 2015 look like anything other than an average to below average year overall for Victiria’s real estate market.
#12 Broke Dick
Garth is only helping people by telling them the truth. Garth is doing fine and walks Bandit every day.
Broke Dick. Try thanking Garth instead. Otherwise, you look like a Dickhead (RE salesperson) for not acknowledging the truth of what is today’s reality.
“… unlike the last time we had a commodity collapse (2009) the world is now growing and expanding, not contracting into recession.
This suggests the commodity surplus might be structural.”
How you assume so blithely that not merely the US but THE WORLD is “growing and expanding”, while ignoring the vast expansion of the monetary base is rather strange.
If you use government statistics (“GDP”, measured in ‘dollars’) to arrive at this determination, you can also be quite sure that a lot of what you assume is ‘growth’ is actually bubble activity – misallocations of capital brought on by the expanding money & credit supply.
We’re in a hall of mirrors. I’ll bet the REAL, economically-justifiable, bona-fide investment-measured “growth” rate is negative.
“I think Suncor’s bid on the Canadian Oilsands is probably much less than the replacement cost, even at current costs. “
Of course its below replacement cost. Its a worn out plant that’s been neglected in many years of asset stripping. Plus the offer is being paid in significantly discounted, under-replacement-value Suncor shares. Since most investors own both COS and SU shares, particularly the indexxers and pension funds, it is very likely the deal will be accepted. And the 40 or so people who ‘work’ for COS in investor relations will be out of jobs when Suncor fires them. Adding further to Calgary RE carnage that started a few years ago and is now in the exponential growth phase.
#31 Hanging on
Time to have a talk with her about everything to see if you and her are on the same page. May be time to let her go.
As Billy Idol sang, “….with a rebel yell she cried more more more….” I love women, but I got snipped as a young man, and I live alone so I can always do as I please. I love my life and have no regrets. An oldtimer told me once, “let everyone else have the kids, you enjoy your life”. I am blessed and I am grateful.
“Religious attendance may be on the decline in Canada, but we’re worshipping at the altar of home ownership in record numbers.”
http://calgaryherald.com/life/swerve/a-renters-manifesto-unpredictable-real-estate-prices-and-uncertain-economy-give-new-legitimacy-to-renting
What Ralph Cramdown said.
Priddis?
Vancouverites often say it is where can you ski in the morning and sail in the afternoon.
If you live near Priddis, you can hunt elk in the morning in Wildlife Management Units 404 and 406, play nine holes of golf in the afternoon at Priddis Greens and quaff draught beer all night at the Black Diamond Hotel.
Heaven on earth.
#49 Dominoes Lining Up
Great Post!
Who is reporting global GDP at +3%? Commodity prices are in the toilet, the Baltic Dry Index is in the crapper, the US labor participation rate is the lowest in 40 years and the US debt ceiling was increased about $1.5T. University grads can’t find work and you have 60M vacant new apartments in China.
The economies of the world can’t be doing well if the demand for commodities are falling. China is not buying as many commodities, since the West is not buying their products.
Yet, GDP is at 3%! I gotta call bullshit.
These guys. — Garth
“Of course, the really smart money saw it coming. Still does.”
– pray tell us O’ wise one, where is really smart going now. Is it still in the “balanced portfolio”?
More of a case of where it is exiting from, which was (of course) the point of the article. — Garth
[email protected]:
“I understand why copper and nickel have dropped in prices. But why–grains? We all have to eat don’t we.”
Sir, The media has scared everyone off Bread – Thirsty Diapers are one “One a day” pills and Millennials on ecstasy – soon to be replaced by Trudeau’s legal weed.
Garth, monetary easing is not GDP.
Go tell the IMF. I’m sure they’ll be all ears for the anonymous, credibly-named “not 1st” dude. — Garth
No. 26 ALBERTASTROPHE
“This radio really grabbed my attention. Tim Flannery, a scientist and author from Australia, speaking of how the Great Barrier Reef will be dead and gone within just two to three decades.”
And a very discredited ‘Paleontologist’ is our Tim – when it comes to the real world of climate science.
Forget about climate modelling which is yet to get just one prediction right.
For all those “chicken little’s” out there I suggest you acquaint yourselves with a dose of reality – http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/
Canada also has a favorite son of the real world – Mark Steyn- why not catch-up with his musings?
Remember – just follow the money if you want to really know what is happening around you.
Another example when the politicians do not look after the abuse of taxpayer money.
In alberta many examples of WASTE generated by the PCs continue today because of the long term contracts.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/nova-star-seizure-1.3298863
Why has real estate only dropped 6% considering oil has been around 40/barrel for over 6 months?
The 6% is a Frankenumber. Did you read the post? — Garth
Freedom First – I am blessed, I am grateful, blah, blah, blah
–
Why do we have to hear your personal manifesto every night? Exactly how insecure are you? Do you honestly think you’re the only person here who has a balanced portfolio, passive income streams and is debt free?
Let me share a few things we know about you so you won’t have to repeat them every night for eternity:
1) You’ve been on your own since 17
2) You’ve lived in 4 provinces
3) While you say you like to help people, all you really do is criticize them to make yourself feel better
4) You hate / distrust women
5) You always put your own freedom first
6) You suck up to Garth / Smokey at every opportunity
7) You’re super lonely
8) You have an compulsive need to brag to strangers who don’t care about you
9) You repeat the same, self-congratulatory crap incessantly
10) When you say you’re blessed and happy beyond belief, we all know that it’s the exact opposite of the truth
How have I done? Now I have just one question for you: “Exactly how small is it?”
#90 Basil Fawlty — “Who is reporting global GDP at +3%?”
Apple, most recently. But it doesn’t take a large quantity of commodities to make something that flies off the shelf at US$650, and even less to make the apps, music and video that it gets a cut of.
I think the Baltic Dry index is a completely useless gauge of world growth right now. China overbuilt steel mills, China built lots of shipyards, China sold lots of freighters to anyone who could get financing for pretty much the price of the steel in them. Now we’ve got the world’s biggest glut of shipping capacity. It’ll turn around eventually, I suppose, but until then it isn’t much of a measure of anything.
Do any of you here know of the game or played the game “Kerplunk”? The game with a clear plastic container and at the half way point it was stuffed with thin plastic sticks. Then one filled it with marbles. The game was players pulling out these thin sticks and try not to get any marbles to fall through into their holding tray. But as each stick gets pulled eventually a crap load of marbles will fall into a player’s holding tray. It is eventually a ‘fait accompli’.
Real estate in Canada is like this game of Kerplunk. But for a decade or more we not only had a make shift container with many thin plastic sticks stuffed in at the midway point holding up a crap load of marbles, we also have been adding marbles to it. But as with life nothing is always PERFECT! Perceived perfection in this case our real estate, looking INVINCIBLE and to always be a perfect thing to pile money (cough, cough carry more credit with) as a real estate owner or adding as a new buyer is not and will not remain so.
As in Kerplunk pulling out these sticks one at a time ( the sticks in real estate represent monetary, economic, social and government actions each and all beyond our direct control) at first do not look to be to hard or bad. Oh a marble or two falling through here and there go mostly un-noticed.
But at times a few more marbles fall through as sticks are pulled and can have some effects for some people. Soon enough though, a stick will be pulled and a TON O’ MARBLES will fall and that in our real estate game will be not just tough, but for many especially those who have OVER LEVERAGED on their gorging frenzy of Canadian real estate will likely suffer drastically.
Nothing in an over valued, over leveraged economy and today especially in real estate is a perfect unfailing vehicle to riches. In Kerplunk when you pull the stick that finally will release that crap load of marbles into your holding tray SUCKS and YOU KNOW THAT YOU HAVE LOST! The economy in Canada has seen many sticks pulled but we still try to add more marbles into the container thinking the weight will hold, BUT IT WON’T!
Beware what myopic visions of greed and wanted lust may bring to you.
I’ve always found Albertans a bit insular. Who else would buy a 2 million dollar ‘cabin’ somewhere nobody else would live? No younger person will live out there, either.
Like, seeing a Ferrari parked outside Earl’s restaurant on 4th St SW.
There’s money, smart money, and AB money.
#97 Ontario’s West Coast
Now now….once in a while FF does hit a home run but at what expense?
Perhaps you should ask “What size are your stereo speakers? and Monster truck or Yellow vette?
Oops…the last question I already know the answer to.
Both. Of course…
I was always taught 1+1 = 2
But the stats the real estate board puts out is
1 + 1 = window.
Scary how the government allows this industry to be so unregulated and puts makes it up as they go.
But that where we are now so believe what you want to believe, But like Garth Says, the smart money knows!!!
So, where did the smart money go? Where’s the growth?
#54 Ray Skunk on 11.01.15 at 1:50 pm
————————————
Actually the 407 is owned by a company known as 407 express toll route, which I have heard is based in Spain or something. However, the current extension of the 407 will be owned by the province.
RE:
Some of us are not.
54 ray skunk that was some sickening boot licking.
What is GTA’s population growth over last 20 years? How many new highways we get (keeping in mind 50% of gas price is taxes)? Just one. A private troll highway.
As I say, the elites will never again allow us a 1st World infrastructure project without new fees. Our taxes? Shipped overseas for new conquests for the King/Queen
#100 Turner Nation
”There’s money, smart money, and AB money.”
And there is ”Ali-money”. That is one you want to try to avoid. Check this out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlvuatQH12E
#12 ALBERTASTROPHE on 11.01.15 at 10:03 am …
“…Mount Royal and Britannia are circling the drain as well…”
I spent my teen years in Mount Royal, and watched with interest as our former home come back on the market a couple of years ago (my parents sold in the late 60s).
It hasn’t sold, despite several price changes. Our relatives in Edmonton talk of similar problems, wanting to sell but can’t afford the loss.
Most of our Canadian friends in Phoenix are already basking in the heat by now, but our Albertan neighbours haven’t shown up yet – one retired oil exec. and the other a lawyer.
We’ve only seen one Alberta plate while shopping recently, unusual but it will be interesting to see what happens over the remainder of the winter!
Re:
Why has real estate only dropped 6% considering oil has been around 40/barrel for over 6 months?
The 6% is a Frankenumber. Did you read the post? — Garth
————–
Have you looked on MLS? Prices don’t look very cheap to me
I pissed 2 realtors today in burnaby, both selling townhouses over half a million at 30 minutes by train crom downtown yvr.
Q1: why are you not advising your client to wait if he wants to upgrade to house? Th bought with the same agent 2 years ago. I follow up with you know we are in recession and rates are going up… He answered the prices are gonna go even higher
Q2: do you have the price history? Answer : no but i can find it. Q2 why are you here if you dont have the only information that i cannot find on mls?
It is pointless i know and the number of people going in the open houses in a rainy day… Incredible.
I am done! Looking for a new place to rent.
I hope nice hair has a magic wand to fix this ship but i think we are doomed scuze my french
@FreedomFirst re: ” As Billy Idol sang, “….with a rebel yell she cried more more more….” I love women, but I got snipped as a young man, and I live alone so I can always do as I please. I love my life and have no regrets. An oldtimer told me once, “let everyone else have the kids, you enjoy your life”. I am blessed and I am grateful.”
Too bad, everyone did not have your attitude. If they did, there would be no society, no bonds, no family. no taxpayers, no daycare required, no trick or treaters, no Santa….sigh…heaven!
RE:
Wow. Literally unbelievable.
@FreedomFirst, Seriously…you have issues. Anyone who has to continually seek out feedback and is obsessed with convincing everyone else that a life without significant others and children is best for everyone, obviously is unsure about his own choices.
Its OK. We get it. You are old and alone. Guess what? It gets better. You get older. Soon it won’t matter how much money you have. No one will care.
And while I am in my pissy mood, thought I would share my letter with my new Liberal MP(sorry Garth, please humour me, you humour FreedomFirst):
I voted Liberal. Now please support me and one million Canadians (and their families) who were thrown under the bus when Harper hid FATCA in bill c-31.
I have been Canadian since birth. My parents and grandparents were born in Canada. Unfortunately, I happened to be born on American soil while my parents were living in USA temporarily. I returned home to Canada under the age of 2 years and have lived here ever since (am now 53 years old).
According to US law, I am a criminal because I have not been filing annual Foreign Bank Account Reports (FBARS) detailing my Canadian bank accounts to the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network(FINCEN) in the USA. The penalties are 50% of the value of each account for every year of non-reporting for up to 6 years (i.e. 300% of the value of each account).
Like the majority of Canadians with a US birthplace, I had no clue until FATCA reared its ugly head, that USA considered me a US taxpayer on my Canadian income, nor that I was required to report my Canadian accounts annually to FINCEN.
The American law FATCA, is designed to search out and find people such as myself and thanks to Harper is now law in Canada. Canadian financial institutions are now required to ignore privacy laws, and charter rights, in order to send the bank account details (balances, etc) to the CRA which in turn forwards the information to the IRS. The first round of data was sent to the IRS in September with more to follow on an annual basis. Canadian taxpayers are footing the bills for Canadian financial institutions and for the CRA to send IRS what it wants. Note that although US claims FATCA is reciprocal, since we don’t care what Canadians living in other countries have in their bank accounts, Canada isn’t getting anything out of the ‘deal.’
It doesn’t take a genius to deduce what happens next. Soon, unfortunate Canadians will be getting scary letters in the mail from the IRS. It will start slow, and eventually pick up steam, as more tax evading Canadians owned by the USA are discovered hiding out in Canada (note the sarcasm here).
Unfortunately, renouncing US citizenship does not solve the problem for many of us. USA has raised its renunciation fee from $0 in 2009 to $450 a couple years ago, and then again to $2350 most recently (in US dollars). In addition, one must swear to having 5 years of tax compliancy at time of renunciation. If I told you what it takes to get ‘tax compliant’, your head would spin. Lets just start by saying that a single Canadian mutual fund is considered a ‘passive foreign income corporation’ subject to confiscatory taxation and mind-boggling reporting. For the average middle-income, middle-aged Canadian holding possibly several different mutual funds, reporting is a complicated, expensive nightmare requiring detailed banking information that is not normally even provided by Canadian banks. There is more. For example, RESPs and TFSAs are “foreign trusts” requiring more paperwork and are taxable by the USA. I’ll stop here. Personally, as a very middle-class Canadian who is a stay home parent, I am looking at several thousand dollars per year for each of the last 5 years just in reporting costs.
Since I don’t have 30 or 40K laying around, I am stuck with unwanted US citizenship. So are hundreds of thousands of other Canadians. Apparently we are in effect OWNED BY THE USA simply because we were born on American soil. And we must pay for our freedom. This is WRONG and a human rights violation.
In case you are not aware, there is a lawsuit that was filed against the Conservative government for agreeing to supply the IRS with the personal financial details of Canadians deemed ‘US persons’ by the USA. Concerned Canadians and citizens throughout the entire world (USA has inflicted FATCA on ALL countries in the world) have been funding the lawsuit while the Conservative government uses taxpayer funds to pay for its defense.
Please support the rights of all Canadians, even those born on US soil, to live normal financial lives in Canada, and to be free from the threat of confiscation of hard earned, already taxed life savings by the USA, not to mention the privacy risks (identity theft) of having their personal information sent to a foreign country.
The Riksbank is in a “battle to fight deflation.”
What exactly constitutes deflation?
Whatever equation you construct and arbitrarily decide what to include/exclude.
When many of the models you consult are broken; CBs have been changing their Franken-formulas.
As Swedish central bank fights deflation, housing bubble worries mount:
“On the other hand, consumer debt is about 175 percent of disposable income, one of the highest rates in Europe. Housing prices keep rising – apartments in Stockholm cost around $6,350 per square meter, on a par with London’s $6,750. Most Swedes would take a century to repay mortgages at current rates.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/01/us-sweden-housing-idUSKCN0SQ1L320151101
Another fine example of incentives gone wild…
#97 Ontario’s Left Coast
You are a liar. I love women.
Priddis is not just eyed by oil executives. There is also the undereducated/big spending oil patch workers that were making big bucks that thought that good times would last for ever.
I’m sure they are all feeling the reality right now, as is everyone in Calgary.
One thing that you do preach is financial literacy, and saving/investing rather than gambling and overspending on things that are too much for what you can handle. It probably would made these tough times easier for them, but most of these oil “monkeys” wouldn’t take your advice anyways.
#114 BlackDog (AKA Whitecat)
If I have to measure the length of your post by the number of times I need to press my PgDn key then your post is too long. No one cares about your FATCA tax problems.
#71 Ex-Cowtown on 11.01.15 at 3:50 pm
———————————
Sorry, your arguments are about as weighty as an ass feather of a humming bird. Weather over historical times is not an argument against anthropogenic climate change; it’s irrelevant to assessing impact of humans on climate. And to answer your questions, humans are now more responsible for climate change (+50%) over the past 150 years than natural sources. We are dumping carbon into the atmosphere in the forms of CO2 and CH4 at an unprecedented rate; this has acidified our oceans, and warmed global surface temperatures.
#19 unbalanced on 11.01.15 at 11:06 am
———————————-
Supply and demand. Grain is in oversupply this year.
#11 Black Dog
No Chance. 7 billion and growing. Dickhead.
whoops….#111 Blackdog
At least we now learned that FF can’t procreate.
#113 Blackdog
I care. That’s enough.
I neglected to mention one advantage to the Priddis lifestyle of hunting elk, golfing and hitting the night life in Black Diamond.
Mossy Oak camo clothing meets the dress code in all three activities.
Make no mistake, they want 100% of our money.
It’s theirs. They think so.
Ontario sees beer tax increase
CBC.ca – 46 minutes ago
Enjoying a cold beer may cost you more in the province of Ontario. That’s because Premier Kathleen Wynne’s Liberal government is bumping up the beer tax.
Beer Prices Increase in Ontario 640 Toronto News
The cost of beer goes up today Newstalk 1010
Ontario sees hydro rates jump — again
CBC.ca – 14 hours ago
Electricity prices in Ontario officially increased Sunday and the rate hike is expected to push up the average household hydro bill by 3.4 per cent.
Price of electricity goes up Nov. 1st CHCH News
Hydro Rates Increase for Winter Junior College
+ more Land Transfer taxes, Carbon taxes. All of it they want.
#114
For the average middle-income, middle-aged Canadian holding possibly several different mutual funds, reporting is a complicated, expensive nightmare requiring detailed banking information that is not normally even provided by Canadian banks. There is more. For example, RESPs and TFSAs are “foreign trusts” requiring more paperwork and are taxable by the USA. I’ll stop here. Personally, as a very middle-class Canadian who is a stay home parent, I am looking at several thousand dollars per year for each of the last 5 years just in reporting costs.
—————
Wow. I need to raise my rates. My rates for two Canadian tax returns, one or two US tax returns, FATCA reporting, and RESP/TFSA reporting is a little north of $US500.
Christopher Mewhort, EA
I find most people think now Trudeau is elected the economy will be improving in Canada. They think the last 10 years were just terrible due to Harper and soon good times will be here. When I explain to them the last 10 years were the good times they look puzzled.
Sure Trudeau pulling out the credit card to spend money we don’t have may temporarily give the illusion of some prosperity to a few who get the money. More money going to construction companies and government workers. What happens when RE is crashing and building stops, no new capital spending is going towards oil and mining projects and Trudeau has blown his wad and the infrastructure projects are done? It won’t be pretty. We will have government, consumers and many companies maxed out on debt they can’t pay back. Wages will be down, company profits down, house prices down, government revenue down along with interest rates and debt up. Five years from now people will be looking at the Harper years as the good times.
Lol…Ex-cowtown weighs in with an absolutely psychotic assessment. Probably from the FOS camp haha.
@S.BbY #118 I think you are a great example of a human being too. Thanks for your understanding and support. I can tell that you really do get our new young Prime Minister when he said, “A Canadian is a Canadian is a Canadian!” …ooops, that is unless said Canadian is property of the USA. I am so happy to be a free Canadian! I am so happy I voted for Anita!
@Chris, What if we add in 3 RESPs, 4 TFSAs, 6 RRSps. god knows how many PFICS, Foreign Bank Account Reporting, joint accounts with elderly parent…and wait for it…a partridge in a pear tree.
So, no one gets the human rights violation here eh? Just want to question my numbers, tell me they don’t give a crap….thanks fellow Canadians. I look and act and live just like you do! I could be you. Why are you all so mean?
#127 TurnerNation on 11.01.15 at 9:34 pm
+ more Land Transfer taxes, Carbon taxes. All of it they want.
______________________________________
Land Transfer Tax + People being able to raid their RRSPs to buy a house is not a coincidence. Boomers downsizing, millennials getting starting. Lots of property changing hands. What a genius tax revenue stream.
Real Estate Taxes are going up, Tax servicing costs are going up, Electricity Rates are going up. Giving with one hand while picking your pocket with the other. When did the left go from being a workers/labour movement to being hijacked by ‘big govt’.
#82 Victoria Real Estate Update
With a name like Oceanside do you really think that person is talking about Victoria? Use your head and stop your senseless rambling.
Oceanside=Parksville/Qualicum area
@S.sby, Oh and one other thing. I am assuming you are a Canadian when I say that you have your rude, ignorant, attitude is a debasement to the value of Canadian citizenship.
“These guys. – Garth”
Thanks Garth, I figured you had gone to a respected source for the data.
However, the figures are still odd, given the state of economies worldwide. What is Christine Legardes background, rowing?
ooops…edit function would be nice…but the point was made. Ssby is an embarrassment to Canadians who realize how hard won freedom is and how easily it is lost. It starts with a few, and grows, soon no one is free.
How come there are so many grumpy people on the blog tonight?
Didn’t you guys take advantage of the time change and get an extra hours sleep?
I had a bad dream that Freedom First and I were room mates.It was truly terrifying!
“Of course, the really smart money saw it coming. Still does.”
Haha. Yup. Just be a paleoconservative and no party can f__k you around.
#119 Bottoms_Up on 11.01.15 at 9:07 pm
#71 Ex-Cowtown on 11.01.15 at 3:50 pm
———————————
Sorry, your arguments are about as weighty as an ass feather of a humming bird. Weather over historical times is not an argument against anthropogenic climate change; it’s irrelevant to assessing impact of humans on climate. And to answer your questions, humans are now more responsible for climate change (+50%) over the past 150 years than natural sources. We are dumping carbon into the atmosphere in the forms of CO2 and CH4 at an unprecedented rate; this has acidified our oceans, and warmed global surface temperatures.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Sorry bud. but you’re the one dressed in ass-feathers.
1. No real world evidence of what % of climate change is due to CO2 has ever been shown. Hundreds of computer models and “expert guesstimates” have been made, but not even one hard experiment has shown any real live number that ties back into reality. This is self-evident in that global temperatures have not risen in 18 years 9 months.
2. Sunscreen kills reefs.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/22/sunscreen-ingredient-may-be-killing-off-coral-reefs-study.html
3. Ocean acidification science is not settled.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/21/new-paper-debunks-acidification-scare-finds-warming-increases-ph/
4. Meanwhile, NASA says Antarctica is adding ice mass:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/10/31/ooops-new-nasa-study-antarctica-isnt-losing-ice-mass-after-all/
5. But don’t panic, that beacon of open mindedness an freedom, Al-Jazeera agrees with you.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/11/01/al-jazeera-climate-deniers-costing-400000-lives-year/
Climate Alarmism is toast. Another delicious irony.
#132 BlackDog — “So, no one gets the human rights violation here eh? Just want to question my numbers, tell me they don’t give a crap….thanks fellow Canadians. I look and act and live just like you do! I could be you. Why are you all so mean?”
Get yourself some dignity already, and stop being such a supplicant wimp. If you don’t consider yourself an American, haven’t lived there since infancy, and you’ve never availed yourself to the rights and privileges of American citizenship, then draft a document to that effect, renouncing your citizenship, tell ’em that if they don’t like it they can go pound sand, notarize it, and send it registered letter to the Secretary of State.
And unless you’re feeling gutsy, don’t travel in the US or over US airspace. But stop grovelling.
Ontario’s Left Coast on 11.01.15 at 7:10 pm
Freedom First – I am blessed, I am grateful, blah, blah, blah
Why do we have to hear your personal manifesto every night? Exactly how insecure are you? Do you honestly think you’re the only person here who has a balanced portfolio, passive income streams and is debt free?
Let me share a few things we know about you so you won’t have to repeat them every night for eternity:
=====================
Hey Ont,
Good summary.
Is your post just the “top 10”?
Or did you omit: 11) “self neutered” , intentionally?
@BlackDog (all over the place)
Start your own blog if you have an issue with FATCA, don’t post about it here ’cause NO ONE CARES.
I have to get out more….I’ve had the most laughs from this post tonight….
Thanks Russ, Flopper and West Coast.
Hahaha #99
And here is the image of Kerplunk!
http://c2.q-assets.com/images/products/p/qj/qj-016_2z.jpg
You are obviously an aging baby boomer with this kind of recall! Hahaha!
Tim Flannery, a scientist and author from Australia, speaking of how the Great Barrier Reef will be dead and gone within just two to three decades.
Imagine that. Dead. Gone.
The Great Frickin’ Barrier Reef!!!!
————————-
Actually he’s late to the game.
Don’t put too much stock in long term predictions.
They have been predicting the demise of the GBR for the last 30 years.
He must be drinking the same cool-aide as Canada’s own enviro “guru” Suzuki.
I remember being at a presentation in the 1980s when the esteemed DS said the Great Lakes were dead and could not recover for 100 years.
25 years later the Great Lakes are doing amazingly well and there is a thriving fishing industry on them. Chalk up 1 for nature.
The long-term prediction from biologist are as good as those from economists.
Their likelihood of being correct are no better than random.
# 69
Check your facts. Oil demand has risen every single year and will continue to, because the population is growing at 100 MILLION per year and the EM middle class even faster.
The bounce as you call it is over 30% and has already had a re-tested. With Garth calling for world GDP growth, US production decline and OPEC budgets under severe strain good luck with your Tesla.
#114 BlackDog on 11.01.15 at 8:41 pm
And while I am in my pissy mood, thought I would share my letter with my new Liberal MP(sorry Garth, please humour me, you humour FreedomFirst):
I voted Liberal. Now please support me and one million Canadians (and their families) who were thrown under the bus when Harper hid FATCA in bill c-31.
I have been Canadian since birth. My parents and grandparents were born in Canada. Unfortunately, I happened to be born on American soil while my parents were living in USA temporarily. I returned home to Canada under the age of 2 years and have lived here ever since (am now 53 years old)….
Look at the bright side, you could have been born in North Korea,……
Sold almost a year and a half ago, original 1950s 2-storey. The overseas buyer let the property grow over for many months then tore the house down and rebuilt, never lived here. Now I see it listed for 2.5x more, for the same piece of dirt, but with 5 more bathrooms. As the 3rd generation to live at that address, I witnessed the sense of ‘community’ progressively disappear. The houses are showpieces, nicely maintained by hired help, you’ll never meet a neighbour though. Thankful that where we live now (original 1950s, but split-level, just to mix it up) people all around us answered the door this weekend to my two out for Halloween. Funny, how I value that…
Who wants to bet it’s wealthy civil servants snapping up those million dollar homes as Alberta’s new Barons of Industry……the One Percenters win again. It’s only the civil servants who’ve got the cash and the ability to cashin on credit to buy the big homes in todays market. I’ll bet it’ cabinet ministers and union back room sharks who’re gobbling up the debris of the NDP windfall.
Do people actually believe this? — Garth
Oceanside on 11.01.15 at 3:57 pm
It’s no wonder sales are slipping in Alberta, it would seem that they are all moving to Vancouver Island, nearly all our new neighbours are from Edmonton or Calgary…..
——————-
That’s right.
Losing their nice cushy $150-$300K per year jobs in Calgary.
Not able to sell their Calgary home or else renting it out for a massive negative cashflow/month.
And moving out to Victoria to buy a $700-$900k bungalow with no income.
Sounds plausible.
Vancouver Island Realtors have been pitching this fantasy since the price started falling.
That stupid priddis place should be dealt with by a bulldozer. Just like that stupid BC place Garth blogged about a few months ago. Including that stupid car in front. Push the entire disgrace under never to be seen thought of or remembered ever again.
#140 Ex-Cowtown on 11.01.15 at 10:33 pm
#119 Bottoms_Up on 11.01.15 at 9:07 pm
#71 Ex-Cowtown on 11.01.15 at 3:50 pm
———————————
Sorry, your arguments are about as weighty as an ass feather of a humming bird. Weather over historical times is not an argument against anthropogenic climate change; it’s irrelevant to assessing impact of humans on climate. And to answer your questions, humans are now more responsible for climate change (+50%) over the past 150 years than natural sources. We are dumping carbon into the atmosphere in the forms of CO2 and CH4 at an unprecedented rate; this has acidified our oceans, and warmed global surface temperatures.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Sorry bud. but you’re the one dressed in ass-feathers.
1. No real world evidence of what % of climate change is due to CO2 has ever been shown. Hundreds of computer models and “expert guesstimates” have been made, but not even one hard experiment has shown any real live number that ties back into reality. This is self-evident in that global temperatures have not risen in 18 years 9 months.
2. Sunscreen kills reefs.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/22/sunscreen-ingredient-may-be-killing-off-coral-reefs-study.html
3. Ocean acidification science is not settled.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/21/new-paper-debunks-acidification-scare-finds-warming-increases-ph/
4. Meanwhile, NASA says Antarctica is adding ice mass:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/10/31/ooops-new-nasa-study-antarctica-isnt-losing-ice-mass-after-all/
5. But don’t panic, that beacon of open mindedness an freedom, Al-Jazeera agrees with you.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/11/01/al-jazeera-climate-deniers-costing-400000-lives-year/
Climate Alarmism is toast. Another delicious irony.
…
Bottoms up will one day look in the mirror and say…
I was so stupid…what was I thinking.
But that day is not here yet…….
I enjoy reading his delusional religious perspective of the second biggest bull shit scam of the century.
This is were I get my grandeur of superiority complex.
People are so stupid…..
To be a fly on the wall when he eventualy develops a brain.
Well that doesn’t affect Vancouver much, we’re not dependent on commodity prices. Prices are still going through the roof.
Stubble Jumper on 11.01.15 at 10:16 pm
#82 Victoria Real Estate Update
With a name like Oceanside do you really think that person is talking about Victoria? Use your head and stop your senseless rambling.
Oceanside=Parksville/Qualicum area
——————————–
BTW People – DO NOT come to Victoria.
…Rains all the time.
…Traffic sucks.
…Costs $100 each way to get off the Island.
…Property taxes and fees are up 805 in the last 7 years and will be increasing at 5-7% due to sewage treatment and dumb infrastructure spending.
…Everythings costs more.
Move to Oceanside or Parksville or Qaulicum – much better choice.
Royal dutch shell looks tasty….
# 155 omg the original
Senseless rambling? I take that as an invitation to post the facts for you.
#97 left coast: you left out the part where he lives his life the way he wants rather than living to seek someone else’s approval. Can you say that yoi are as true to yourself as he is to himself? I knkw very few people who could. While his posts may become a little predictable to long time followers, I respect him for his honesty and don’t mind him waving his flag around here. It might not be everyone’s cup of tea but it is certainly better than the guys who come here thinking they have one hyperlink that “proves” that Garth is all wrong about HAM not being the cause of everything wrong with Vancouver.
Speaking of Vancouver, any thoughts on when we will see the Priddis effect out there?
Don’t hate on each other….it’s what the program wants us to do to each other.
Hope the link below works, it’s worth a cut and paste if you like to know the “plans they have for you”
http://www.invisibleserfscollar.com/rapprochemont-or-civilization-surrender-how-to-force-human-solidarity-starting-with-preschool-education/ calls attention to the International Decade of the Rapprochement of Cultures.
Regards
#107 Ronaldo
Good video Ronaldo. Yes, I was aware of the tragic anti-male court systems in the U.S. and Canada before you could even find the info on the internet. Marriage is too high risk for males in our society. Marriage and kids? Ultra high risk of true nightmares being lived by millions of men in the U.S. and Canada today. Marriage rates are down significantly in the U.S., Canada, and even Japan today, especially among the millenials. Millenial Japanese men are also refusing the workaholic slavery demanded by their society that they have watched their fathers endure. Politicians are very worried.
I’m thinking of the long game. Now that China has removed the 1-Child policy I will just hold on for another 20+ years and hope to sell to the 2nd round of Foreign Investors. Maybe PEI will be the next GVA?
RE:
A fly has approximately 100,000 neurons and 10^7 synapses vs a typical humans 86,000,000,000 neurons and 10^15 synapses. So at that point he’ll still be smarter than you.
#114 Blackdog
Sounds painful. Yes. I understand. Nobody cares about me either.
#123 Not 1st
It’s reversible.
Oceanside on 11.01.15 at 3:57 pm
It’s no wonder sales are slipping in Alberta, it would seem that they are all moving to Vancouver Island, nearly all our new neighbours are from Edmonton or Calgary…..
——————-
That’s right.
Losing their nice cushy $150-$300K per year jobs in Calgary.
Not able to sell their Calgary home or else renting it out for a massive negative cashflow/month.
And moving out to Victoria to buy a $700-$900k bungalow with no income.
Sounds plausible.
Vancouver Island Realtors have been pitching this fantasy since the price started falling.
Not Victoria, upper Island….. Lots of new 1, 800 sq ft ranchers for under $500k Victoria is too expensive for most.
#138 For those about to flop
Relax. I live alone. 0 divorce lawyers, 0 kids, 0 alimony, 0 child support, 0 Dickhead room mates. No man or woman is worth living with.
#166 Freedom First on 11.02.15 at 1:00 am
#138 For those about to flop
Relax. I live alone. 0 divorce lawyers, 0 kids, 0 alimony, 0 child support, 0 Dickhead room mates. No man or woman is worth living with.
//////////////////////////////////////////
I will move in with you but where will you put your Cabbage Patch Dolls collection to make room for me?
#118 S.Bby on 11.01.15 at 9:06 pm
#114 BlackDog (AKA Whitecat)
If I have to measure the length of your post by the number of times I need to press my PgDn key then your post is too long. No one cares about your FATCA tax problems
——–
You should care if you bank or pay taxes in Canada. That would mean you’re paying for US law to be imposed upon Canadians in Canada. You are also paying towards grants from the Government of Canada to RESPs and RDSPs, when some of that grant money will go to the IRS if the US gets to turn Canadians into “US persons for rax purposes” against their will.
Only in Calgary would the expensive area of town be forty clicks outside the city centre. That sums the city up perfectly. May the last one out turn off the lights.
#125 Washed Up Lawyer on 11.01.15 at 9:29 pm
I neglected to mention one advantage to the Priddis lifestyle of hunting elk, golfing and hitting the night life in Black Diamond.
Mossy Oak camo clothing meets the dress code in all three activities.
——————————————————–
Any swamp donkey’s to be had out there?
140 Ex-Cowtown:
“Munich Re, Swiss Re and the other reinsurers, along with the Lloyd’s of London insurance market [are] on the same page as scientists on climate change. ”
Must just be idiots running all those billion dollar reinsurance companies eh?
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-magazine/an-industry-that-has-woken-up-to-climate-change-no-deniers-at-global-resinsurance-giant/article15635331/?page=all
Relax. I live alone. 0 divorce lawyers, 0 kids, 0 alimony, 0 child support, 0 Dickhead room mates. No man or woman is worth living with.
There’s probably a reason for that. You probably suck.
I’d like to see a source cited for the claim of “less than the materials used to build it” pertaining to the second home mentioned.
If I have to start paying tolls to get to the ACC to watch the Leafs, i’ll be pissed.
#113 BlackDog on 11.01.15 at 8:33 pm
@FreedomFirst, Seriously…you have issues. Anyone who has to continually seek out feedback and is obsessed with convincing everyone else that a life without significant others and children is best for everyone, obviously is unsure about his own choices.
Its OK. We get it. You are old and alone. Guess what? It gets better. You get older. Soon it won’t matter how much money you have. No one will care.
#132 BlackDog on 11.01.15 at 10:11 pm
So, no one gets the human rights violation here eh? Just want to question my numbers, tell me they don’t give a crap….thanks fellow Canadians. I look and act and live just like you do! I could be you. Why are you all so mean?
====================================
Just a thought, but when seeking sympathy, maybe it’s a good idea not to be such a dick yourself?
I too ran briefly afoul of FATCA. I am a longtime expat, but have one meagre Canadian RRSP account languishing in Canada due to my non-resident status – all other ties have long since been cut. I received a FATCA compliance letter due to the fact the phone number I had on record was a US-based Skype number (the CRTC of course, does not allow Skype to have Canadian-based numbers – gotta protect those telecoms!). This alone was enough to trigger a letter demanding I proceed to the IRS website and download this and that form and filed them, etc..
I promptly called my Canadian bank and instructed them to change my phone number to my landline in Dubai and pound sand. The letter went away. But yes, the Canadian banks and government seem eager to please their US overlords.
I no longer consider myself a Canadian citizen, but a world citizen who holds a Canadian passport. This is of course only a mindset, not legal reality. And why shouldn’t I think this way? I’m not permitted to vote. I don’t avail myself of any Canadian services whatsoever beyond the Passport Office (for which privilege I now pay vastly increased fees for: $260).
Instead of whining why not try to think of a way to use your dual citizenship to your advantage? Many would kill for your “problem”. Have you ever considered seeking employment in the US, and living part-time there and in Canada? Or are you on the same bandwagon as many Canadians who refuse to believe that there is nothing better outside of their own borders? In which case I can’t help you.
Piddliss is SW of Calvary right in the middle of the feethills with an absolutely fantastic view of Kananasskiss. AND you can hunt elk there, before breakfast, if you want. (The elks, which are a sort of horse, are very angry.) [Credit for the above information goes to WUP and DROOL BABY DOLL.]
Where is “Moose Jaw”? Hog’s Holler? (Hog’s Holler must be in West Virginia.)
Piddliss is also the name of the dramatic little dog in Garth’s photo, he’s re-enacting the death of Richard III as played onscreen by Olivier. (Or channeling Harpo after the election.) (Or IRS-tortured Canadians.) (No laughing matter that, actually.) Maybe he’s dead.
PONZIUS “i mogs net” PILATUS wouldn’t be caught dead living in a place called Piddliss. Quite right.
In my day, self-respecting and astute Canadians lived in Toronto and did not ever venture north of St.Clair, west of Spadina, or east of Parliament Str. (In Mtl that would be north of Sherbrooke, east of St.Laurent, west of I forget.)
“The Prairie Provinces” actually make less sense than “The Maritimes”. I keep having to look on the map to see just where these CBC fictions are. Like this NORWAY place which, incredibly, was mentioned yet again by a blogdog.
#73 Nicolas:
********************************
I want to move to Norway!
#97 Ontario re: Freedom First
*******************************
I thought I was the only one who thought he was too self-righteous.
#173 Me — “I’d like to see a source cited for the claim of “less than the materials used to build it” pertaining to the second home mentioned.”
No definitive source, but here’s a Herald article:
http://calgaryherald.com/business/real-estate/two-new-luxury-homes-in-priddis-to-go-for-sale-by-auction
And the auction house’s last word:
http://www.conciergeauctions.com/auctions/302-hawks-nest-hollow-priddis-alberta-canada-t0l-1w0/#forward
The referenced house sold for $167/sqft, including the land it’s on (a piddling 2/3 of an acre), less than the supposed reserve price. And the 9,200 sqft figure includes the finished basement. And it comes with an included membership to that ‘exclusive’ golf club it is on.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3A9rLoz_0o
oil too high. oil too low. either way, the sky is falling. Few predicted $45 oil 18 months ago. Now all the prophets are saying oil will be low for like … for-e-ver.
You just found the greater fool. He sold a 2.9 mil mansion for 1.1 mil. Time to close up the blog and brand your search as a smashing success.
where in the equation does sell low fit into any portfolio?
Oil will not be low forever, obviously. But it could remain below the cost of production for oil sands operators for long enough to hollow out the industry and make the Priddis seller look wise indeed. Unlike money, real estate has no intrinsic value. — Garth
Actual sales stats, not the phony ones reported by realtards, make a great case for renting.
Not only are many owners shackled with a rapidly declining non-asset, they remain increasingly firmly rooted in place as tax targets for capital-starved governments.
Evolving bank lending standards, interest rate creep and continuing job loss will exert unrelenting downward pressure on the market.
Study claims Vancouver housing market dominated by Chinese
The study says one hood was dominated. Not the market. Stop being a drama queen. — Garth
#60 Smoking Man on 10.30.15 at 7:55 pm
Working on my next Big Drunk, two wines deep and a long way to go..
Why does one do this…Hell I don’t know
At Stir, where else on a Friday or Saturday night.
Hanging out with losers.. Makes me feel kind of superior..Teachers did a number on me. Now their running a county.
Demented habit for sure…
Waitress two more please.
__________________________________________
Mr Smoking Man I saw your disgusting up-skirt photos of the waitresses at Stir Friday night on your blog. Really your a sicko. Noticed you took them off in the morning though! What happened? A change of mind, perhaps or did you wake up and look at me in bed and say what the f$%K did I do? Again? Why did I marry you?
“Study claims Vancouver housing market dominated by Chinese”…
And it IS having a ripple effect across our province. Less so the further away but definitely affecting markets outside the Greater Vancouver area.
Unlike money, real estate has no intrinsic value. — Garth
Right you are Garth! You are soo wise.
Money- gold and silver have intrinsic value.
Currency- Those digits on the computer screen and paper promises in your pocket- don’t have INTRINSIC VALUE.
Real estate- currently- has a depreciating intrinsic value.
Gold, like oil, has no intrinsic value. It is only market value. — Garth
Get ready for a week of distraction as politics returns. Harper out (but still hanging around?), Trudeau in and the NDP….well, probably confused in the corner.
JT will have free rein for a while, so here’s hoping he makes some good moves quickly. Dealing with the real estate problem is not likely one of them however.
The NDP are in a festering mess that is going to get worse, I think.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/mulcair-to-ask-ex-mps-to-examine-what-went-wrong-for-ndp-in-election/article27031551/
“Defeated parties usually have a tradition of inviting defeated MPs to the inaugural caucus meeting following the election, but Mulcair said that won’t be happening in the case of the NDP.”
My sources tell me the internal invective is only getting worse by the day, and the knives are coming out. A major rethink of just who the party is will likely be coming up.
In fact, this may be a generational turning point for the NDP, Layton only a blip in the rear-view mirror. For too many Toronto NDP-type people, this was the last straw, waiting for a party to not lose its nerve when it finally had a chance at victory.
They have lived through the Ontario NDP’s strange platform last year, moving to the right of the Liberals and losing badly; the weird campaign for Toronto Mayor by Olivia Chow, also too right wing and a loser; and now this truly bizarre austerity campaign far to the right of the Liberals.
Anyone who wanted an NDP platform in this election had little choice but to vote for the Liberals. How strange, and how decisive that was in the vote.
The provincial internal bickering against Andrea Horwath included deans of the party taking out ads to denounce her last year. Expect some of those in the national party, including the defeated ones not invited to parliament this week, to do the same.
Despite the pasted-on smile, Mulcair has shown some of the same kind of controlling centralization of power in the party that Harper was famous for. This campaign was very much about him and his inner circle.
Expect the unexpected. Trudeau will have barely any coherent opposition for a year or two, I am guessing.
Tom? You blew it. You refused to let the party simply be itself, at a time when the public was more ready than ever to give a chance, to be the face of change for change’s sake. Such a chance will likely not come about again for a generation, maybe more. In the meantime, expect more to involve themselves with the Liberals, at least until it starts to cynically turn. And many more will consider the Greens, who seem very consistent.
Shame on the NDP. The other parties turn into hypocrites after being in government, we all know that.
The NDP can’t even be honest about who it is during the campaign!
The Canadian RE market is plagued by opaqueness and government control and intervention. This obviously makes the market oblivious to or at least slower to respond to economic fundamentals.
On one hand it may help prevent a sudden violent crash/correction as we saw in the US but of the other it also means that the adverse effect of the real estate bubble will be with us for longer. The more time we take to correct the longer we stay on the wrong path.
From this you should expect a couple of things. Most importantly our productivity will be in the doldrums for a long time, hence our standard of living will decline for a good while to come, at least compared to the US. This means among other things that public finances will be affected and governments will be tempted to raises taxes all over to maintain services and the sinecures of public sector employees, when that happens it’s bound to impoverish us yet even more.
The fact that at the same time commodities are entering a durable decline and population ageing is entering its most delicate phase with boomers exiting the work market, is overwhelming. In Canada we have been somehow shielded from economic fundamentals for a very long time, mostly by a debt binge and a commodity bubble. Those days are now behind us, it’s showing already of course, but it’s just a beginning.
#73 nicolas
the current prosperity of norway is a direct result of freedom-oriented pre-socialist policies.
circumstances have been getting progressively worse since the left-wing takeover.
historical knowledge is a wonderful thing.
#171 Bobs ur uncle on 11.02.15 at 2:13 am
140 Ex-Cowtown:
“Munich Re, Swiss Re and the other reinsurers, along with the Lloyd’s of London insurance market [are] on the same page as scientists on climate change. ”
Must just be idiots running all those billion dollar reinsurance companies eh?
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Nope. Just people who want in on a scam. What better way to make money in insurance than to sell people insurance on something that they’ll never collect on? 100% profit. No risk. Best gig EVAHHHH! Far from being stupid, these guys see a massive scam and want in on it.
As to scams, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the US is now fighting U.S. Congressional subpoenas to explain why the historical temperature records were altered to show the past several degrees colder, and the present warmer. Over the years numerous researchers downloaded previous versions of the temperature records and have shown data tampering. NOAA is refusing to cooperate on what was done and by whom.
Hardly sounds like science to me, more like a Watergate style cover-up.
#125 Washed Up Lawyer on 11.01.15 at 9:29 pm
I neglected to mention one advantage to the Priddis lifestyle of hunting elk, golfing and hitting the night life…
Around here hitting the night life mostly involves deer, although that is usually survivable. With elk your chances are lower.
#30 For those about to flop… on 11.01.15 at 11:41 am
I don’t earn a lot of money but I believe that it is my responsibility to fend for myself and if you have never had a lot of money it is easier to go without all the toys that people waste their money on.
Good for you. Sorry to hear about your job. However, there is no wrong side of 40 ± 10 years :-)
For the fringe climate change deniers:
The policy summary representing the work conducted by thousands of experts in the field, endorsed by top governments including Germany and the USA.
Figure 1. Shows increased surface temps, sea level rise and human emissions.
Figure 3. Shows anthropogenic contribution on the observed temperature change (relative to natural forces). We are most responsible for the observed changes over the past 150 years.
Figure 5b. Shows the correlation between CO2 emissions and temperature.
The evidence is very clear.
http://ar5-syr.ipcc.ch/
More fuel on the fire in Vancouver – they going to keep this propped up for a century:
http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/11/2/Royal-Bank-of-Canada-scraps-limit-on-size-of-newcomer-mortgages.aspx
The home shown in the picture is worth the 1.1 Mil or more. The tear downs sold in GTA for the same prices are a shame to buy…
#162 kommykim on 11.02.15 at 12:42 am
RE:
#153 Smoking Man on 11.01.15 at 11:26 pm
People are so stupid…..
To be a fly on the wall when he eventualy develops a brain.
A fly has approximately 100,000 neurons and 10^7 synapses vs a typical humans 86,000,000,000 neurons and 10^15 synapses. So at that point he’ll still be smarter than you.
………………………….
I’m Kind of curious, when was your logical belief system hijacked.
Primary School?
High School?
Collage?
Bar?
Chic?
#137 BlackDog on 11.01.15 at 10:24 pm
…but the point was made. Ssby is an embarrassment to Canadians who realize how hard won freedom is and how easily it is lost. It starts with a few, and grows, soon no one is free.
This is an important point.
My insignificant story is about me old mum and her gigantic, copper-bottomed defined benefit widow’s pension from the UK.
She got a letter from the administrator saying that to improve her service charges by three quid they were going to send the pension to Canada a different way. Emphatically they said, “she did not have to do anything”.
Another two months go by. Then a form is required to be filled in for the US authorities…and lo! jolly old Western Union is the new means of transfer…
Well, my mother is nothing if not feisty. She will not fill in said form – Western Union is the trigger of a million old ladies’ nightmares about being swindled and she is not a terrorist and she doesn’t have to do anything!
Another two months pass, then the pension stops. Ordure hits ceiling ventilation…
I am now required to communicate with a completely incompetent pension administration outfit apparently run out of an Indian boiler room. Never the same email respondent twice. Hilarious.
Eventually, she gets three pension payments for 2 months. The saga continues.
Would I be a paranoid to think that Western Union is underbidding money transfer services to acquire data about money movements between non-US countries?
#160 Freedom First on 11.02.15 at 12:38 am
#107 Ronaldo
I was aware of the tragic anti-male court systems in the U.S. and Canada before you could even find the info on the internet.
Even before the internet, men were leaving women with children in poverty. What’s a State gonna do? Can’t let the babies starve… bad behaviour all around and the heavy hand of social policy encourages other bad behaviour.
Marriage is too high risk for males in our society.
And yet, didn’t I read some research that appeared to show married men live longer and more happily than single men? Women, not so much…probably because they have the old coot to look after :-)
Anyway, anything that reduces the number of unwanted children is fine by me.
#176 Nagraj on 11.02.15 at 5:24 am
…PONZIUS “i mogs net” PILATUS wouldn’t be caught dead living in a place called Piddliss.
Frankly, I’m surprised you don’t wash your hands of this business.
#58 pinstripe on 11.01.15 at 2:09 pm
in the global economy the big corps are totally focused on keeping the shareholder on board. these corps will do whatever it takes to make a dollar. their role is strictly to satisfy the shareholder and not to create jobs, innovation and creativity is designed to reduce workers and add dollars to the bottom line. to protect their bottom line they will use whatever method of fear mongering is available.
There is a wide gap between what the big corps say and what they do, and that gap is getting wider. This is what forces many people to vote either ndp or liberal.
The harpo policy makers created this big mess. Unfortunately the people will be taking the brunt of this mess.
as one old gezzer summed it up in the coffee shop. “ndp govt in alberta, liberal govt in Canada, the sun is shining today, EVERYTHING is GOOD”
____________________________________________
The various privately owned, run, and held corporations of Canada do not owe anyone a job. Many speak as if there is some obligation of them to “provide jobs” – somewhat like the various governments claiming they can “create jobs”.
NDP, Liberal – whoever you vote in will not change this fact. Private enterprise does not owe anyone a job – and the more leftwingnutizm that persists in Canada, the less jobs there will be as Private enterprise does not have any obligation to operate in Canada either (unless they’ve been bailed out ala GM, Bombardier etc)
When lights-out manufacturing becomes more common – you’d better make sure you are one of those shareholders.
#97 Ontario’s Left Coast on 11.01.15 at 7:10 pm
Freedom First – I am blessed, I am grateful, blah, blah, blah
–
Why do we have to hear your personal manifesto every night? Exactly how insecure are you? Do you honestly think you’re the only person here who has a balanced portfolio, passive income streams and is debt free?
Let me share a few things we know about you so you won’t have to repeat them every night for eternity:
1) You’ve been on your own since 17
2) You’ve lived in 4 provinces
3) While you say you like to help people, all you really do is criticize them to make yourself feel better
4) You hate / distrust women
5) You always put your own freedom first
6) You suck up to Garth / Smokey at every opportunity
7) You’re super lonely
8) You have an compulsive need to brag to strangers who don’t care about you
9) You repeat the same, self-congratulatory crap incessantly
10) When you say you’re blessed and happy beyond belief, we all know that it’s the exact opposite of the truth
How have I done? Now I have just one question for you: “Exactly how small is it?”
—————————————————
Well said. Some things are worth repeating, like this post. For FF you can just F OFF.
#188 maxx
re home owners”…they remain increasingly firmly rooted in place as tax targets for capital-starved governments”.
Well said maxx. A direct pipeline to your wallet via your home.
this is the way democracy works:
http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2015/11/dogbert-for-president-taxes1.jpg
http://www.acting-man.com/blog/media/2015/11/Election-Comic.jpg
HAM ?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/rbc-mortgage-limit-size-1.3299631
Keep the bubble building.
It seems hardly a day goes by someone isn’t complaining about all that HAM (hot Asian money) buying up fancy expensive houses in Vancouver and further driving up prices. Why aren’t those people with all that HAM scooping up houses in places like Priddis, where these big, fancy monster homes are on sale?
Looks like deflation might not have as big an impact on the currency as the rapid exodus of capital by smart money…
http://www.financialpost.com/m/search/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com/investing/global-investor/money-is-flooding-out-of-canada-at-the-fastest-pace-in-the-developed-world&q=Canadian%20dollar
Even when our fearless leaders cry n “No HAM”…”No HAM’…..the facts keep crashing through the politically correct barriers to truth
http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/in-a-six-month-period-70-of-detached-homes-sold-in-vancouvers-west-side-went-to-mainland-china-buyers
http://www.mortgagebrokernews.ca/news/rbc-does-away-with-mortgage-limits-for-foreigners-198845.aspx
#73 nicolas on 11.01.15 at 3:58 pm
In Norway, oil is also the biggest export.
So, how the oil crash affecting them?
I’d glad you asked. They are swimming in cash and just passed a tax cut.
All of this thanks to terrible, terrible govmt policies Garth would never endorse.
http://www.thestar.com/news/atkinsonseries/2015/08/28/unlike-alberta-norways-economy-insulated-from-falling-oil-prices.html
Have a great Sunday folks
____________________________________________
Yes good old Norway and the 50% truth.
Fact is in Norway, Big Oil get’s a free ride on the back of its taxpayers, the government plows Billions into Big Oil Corps to lure them where they would not otherwise go.
Oil Tycoons make billions, and the Norwegian Taxpayers take 80+% of the risk. Sound like a good deal?
30+% of government revenue up there is Oil, they’ve peaked, and there is no way “alternative” energy is going to provide an equal benefit.
Speaking of oil. Yea many supposedly smart and wealthy individuals got it all wrong. While i coffess to neither got it exactly right. I didnt lose a de in the fallout. Ramond James has a very good team. Also a friend and hedge fund manager who consistently stays out of harms way says. ” a low teafing rang for years is most likely”. We have 75% us side investments and I think Garth is on the same as page!
The trickle down takes time while most will spend the time lieing to themselves.
When things are booming everyone and thier dog is pumping BS. Including real estate goon show.
When we turtle numbers are sqewed and people lie to your face. Welcome to The human race. The whole things built up like a ponzi scheme.
I posted a long term chart on the TSX and the loonie. Th TSX always ended up doing a face plant in the wake of a declining loonie no acceptions. At this moment the TSX is in a solid down trend while the Dow has broken its DT.
SPEAKING OF CLIMATE CHANGE has anyone seen “Cowspiracy” ??? Its on Nutflex. I wouldn’t mind hearing back on this!
#191 Nora Lenderby on 11.02.15 at 10:22 am
#30 For those about to flop… on 11.01.15 at 11:41 am
I don’t earn a lot of money but I believe that it is my responsibility to fend for myself and if you have never had a lot of money it is easier to go without all the toys that people waste their money on.
Good for you. Sorry to hear about your job. However, there is no wrong side of 40 ± 10 years :-)
///////////////////////////////////////////////
Ah,poop happens! Thanks for your encouragement, I’m sure I will find something to do next year after the surgery.
If not I will just have to become a full time blogger and annoy you lot!
Dude were screwed. Lol
Well its not super ugly but dont expect the easy money of the past. Worth a rundown.
http://www.cknw.com/money-talks/
#182 Dup on 11.02.15 at 10:28 am
The home shown in the picture is worth the 1.1 Mil or more. The tear downs sold in GTA for the same prices are a shame to buy…
————————–
it the price of the dirt.
1.1m dozerbait is 100% land value
a 1.1m mansion in the country on less than multi acres is <10% land value
so the urban dirt is worth 100x more at minimum (assuming 10x smaller urban land)
van city is still shooting upwards, in the 'cheaper' areas land value is about 12M/acre (about 10 lots)
45 minutes away nice land can be as low as 75k/ac CDN or 10k/ac US
what's that ratio?
and this…
Royal Bank scraps size limit on newcomer mortgages to keep up with Chinese demand
Canada's largest bank used to limit loan sizes to $1.25M for those with no local credit history
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/rbc-mortgage-limit-size-1.3299631
and this too…
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/bank+mortgages+bags+cash+behind+chinese+home+buys+vancouver/11485324/story.html
#204 Doug in London on 11.02.15 at 11:52 am
It seems hardly a day goes by someone isn’t complaining about all that HAM (hot Asian money) buying up fancy expensive houses in Vancouver and further driving up prices. Why aren’t those people with all that HAM scooping up houses in places like Priddis, where these big, fancy monster homes are on sale?
——————————
really?
they are not at all interested in anything much east of cambie or main st. when priddis has 100+ good dim sum places let us know.
208 IHCTD9 on 11.02.15 at 12:47 pm
#73 nicolas on 11.01.15 at 3:58 pm
In Norway, oil is also the biggest export.
So, how the oil crash affecting them?
I’d glad you asked. They are swimming in cash and just passed a tax cut.
All of this thanks to terrible, terrible govmt policies Garth would never endorse.
http://www.thestar.com/news/atkinsonseries/2015/08/28/unlike-alberta-norways-economy-insulated-from-falling-oil-prices.html
Have a great Sunday folks
____________________________________________
Yes good old Norway and the 50% truth.
Fact is in Norway, Big Oil get’s a free ride on the back of its taxpayers, the government plows Billions into Big Oil Corps to lure them where they would not otherwise go.
Oil Tycoons make billions, and the Norwegian Taxpayers take 80+% of the risk. Sound like a good deal?
30+% of government revenue up there is Oil, they’ve peaked, and there is no way “alternative” energy is going to provide an equal benefit.
____________________________________________
How many Norwegians are there? Less than the GTA. Yep if they didn’t have a big government sucking away money like ours then they would be pooched. Alberta should have separated from Ottawa.
#184 };-) aka Devil’s Advocate on 11.02.15 at 9:33 am
“Study claims Vancouver housing market dominated by Chinese”…
And it IS having a ripple effect across our province. Less so the further away but definitely affecting markets outside the Greater Vancouver area.
—————————–
ripple effect outside gva? thats a stretch.
it’s a tsunami in e van and parts of bby, surfable in coquitlam/newwest, much smaller over the port mann and near zero by langley.
#82 Victoria Real Estate Update
# 71 Oceanside
You are probably a realtor.
SFH sales in Greater Victoria have been below Victoria’s long term average so far in 2015.
You probably wouldn’t know that from reading what the local board has written in their public releases.
They would much rather compare SFH sales in 2015 to sales totals from some of the most recent years which is extremely misleading. It is misleading because in Victoria we have seen record low or close to record low SFH sales totals in recent years.
There is no data to make 2015 look like anything other than an average to below average year overall for Victoria’s real estate market.
—————————————————-
(1) Why is everyone who states Victoria/island prices are rising is a realtor?
(2) Do you have any real stats to back up your claims?
(3) Why do you care so much for a price crash? Seriously what’s the goal?
My wife and I have been looking for a spot on the island for a commercial venture for two years. We are specific in what we want. We also are looking for a house and that problem was solved. Prices have improved over the last two years. I know this cause the stats back me up.
http://www.housepriceindex.ca/default.aspx
http://www.vreb.org/current-statistics
When we first started looking two years ago, prices were down and listings were up. the reverse is true today. You can blab on all you want but stats do not lie. Now for some garbage anecdotal information. We paid cash for our house. From Alberta. We looked at roughly 60 homes on the southern part of the island. Waterfront was a must. We are not seniors. We work and have nothing to do with O&G.
And no I have zero affiliation with the realty industry.
In the Globe and Mail, read the tale of Mr. Dhaliwal who resigned from TD and who then got approved to become a mortgage sub-broker by B.C.’s financial services regulator.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/mortgage-fraud-on-the-rise-among-brokers-trying-to-help-clients-qualify/article27051297/
PS My guys were calling for .70c loonie a couple years ago (I agreed!) and its occurred much fast than anticipated…WE ARE heading for probably .55c…
Prepare your selves accordingly! No shit. Put this ion the fridge.
I argued with the Gold bugs about a rally exactly one year ago…I said they were fools (actually a lot worse). Gold stocks lost ANOTHER 40%…
Titanic is sinking fast:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/news-sources/?mid=cnw.20151102.C9139
TORONTO, Nov. 2, 2015 /CNW/ – The latest RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI survey pointed to another downturn in overall business conditions, with output, new orders and employment all declining since the previous month. Moreover, new export sales dropped for the first time since April, with survey respondents noting that weaker global economic conditions had weighed on new business volumes.
Meanwhile, input costs rose at a sharp and accelerated pace in October, which placed pressure on operating margins and contributed to a further slight increase in factory gate charges.
A monthly survey, conducted in association with Markit, a leading global financial information services company, and the Supply Chain Management Association (SCMA), the RBCPMI offers a comprehensive and early indicator of trends in the Canadian manufacturing sector.
Adjusted for seasonal influences, the RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI posted 48.0 in October, down from 48.6 in September and below the neutral 50.0 threshold for the third month in a row. Moreover, the latest reading signalled the sharpest rate of deterioration since the survey began in October 2010.
“Heightened global economic uncertainty and ongoing energy price weakness continues to weigh on the Canadian manufacturing sector, as indicated by October’s record-low reading of 48.0,” said Craig Wright, senior vice-president and chief economist, RBC. “As we move toward the end of the year, we expect that a strengthening U.S. economy and weaker Canadian dollar will fuel demand for Canada’s exports, resulting in a shift to positive growth territory.”
Apparently weak energy prices drag down the manufacturing sector,
I bet that both loonie will go down and exports will decline.
#175 BillyBob on 11.02.15 at 4:27 am
Instead of whining why not try to think of a way to use your dual citizenship to your advantage? Many would kill for your “problem”. Have you ever considered seeking employment in the US, and living part-time there and in Canada? Or are you on the same bandwagon as many Canadians who refuse to believe that there is nothing better outside of their own borders? In which case I can’t help you.
Gaining dual citizenship has been a positive move for myself and my family. My kids are dual citizens too and so will their kids. They will have the opportunity to live and work anywhere in US and Canada. My sacrifice was waiting for 10 years in the US to get my citizenship. It was well worth it. I file my taxes for both countries and will continue to do so with pleasure. If you do not take advantage of your circumstance, you are the only one to blame.
#73 nicolas
In Norway, oil is also the biggest export. So, how the oil crash affecting them?
Good thing they didn’t have to subsidize their neighbors by sending them billions every year…
But even then, economically Norway is a one trick pony and now that horse is very sick. The rest of the economy is composed by either the public sector or a massively subsidized private sector or by real-estate since there is a world class housing bubble going on there. Households are in debt to the tune of an astounding 225% of their income. Besides oil the growth potential in Norway is basically non-existent and potential for a heavy duty correction significant. If things turn sour Norway could eat up that fund in a hurry only to maintain its ridiculous welfare state and fight off population ageing.
In other words it’s only a matter of time before economic fundamentals catch up to Norway and when that happens I don’t think anyone in Alberta will envy them!
Loonie VS TSX Chart
http://jugglingdynamite.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/TSX-and-C-since-1997.png
#209 Bill — ‘Also a friend and hedge fund manager who consistently stays out of harms way says. ” a low teafing rang for years is most likely”’
Tell your friend to put his false teeth back in, or take off your mittens when you’re typing. Google figured out what you were trying to say, after I couldn’t.
#187 pbrasseur, spot on. Sadly, I have to agree.
splainin things to #198 NORA LENDERBY:
I’m also tryin to get a bit more outa PONZIUS PILATUS than those hilarious one liners he comes up with. “i mogs net” is Austro-Bavarian dialect for “I don’ like it” but that’s a far from satisfactory translation – the humour of it doesn’t translate, period. As far as I can tell, PONZIUS, LALA, and KREDITANSTALT are expatriate Oesterreicher (and ditto for Austrian-born moi). Isn’t it odd there should be four (or more?) Habsburg blogdogs?
There actually is a Hog Hollow in West VA – which slipped into my head as Hog’s Holler when I read Hawk’s Hollow Nest (the name of that house pictured in the blogpost). As for Pissdill or whatever, to new stock ears from the defunct empire a whole lot of new world nomenclature sounds ludicrous. (To say nothing of English place names.)
RE:
Probably around the same time that your sense of humour was.
#191 Nora Lenderby on 11.02.15 at 10:22 am
#30 For those about to flop… on 11.01.15 at 11:41 am
I don’t earn a lot of money but I believe that it is my responsibility to fend for myself and if you have never had a lot of money it is easier to go without all the toys that people waste their money on.
Good for you. Sorry to hear about your job. However, there is no wrong side of 40 ± 10 years :-)
///////////////////////////////////////////////
Ah,poop happens! Thanks for your encouragement, I’m sure I will find something to do next year after the surgery.
If not I will just have to become a full time blogger and annoy you lot!
Better pray for me Nora!
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/canadas-factory-activity-sinks-to-fresh-low-in-october/article27062124/
Looks like A BOC rate cut back on the table
here’s a quick question:
is the “family tax cut” gone for tax year 2015?
Norway, some interesting facts :
«In 1971 — when the North Sea oil was just beginning to flow — the average Norwegian was about as poor as the average Greek»
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/02/17/2119329/how-will-the-oil-crash-affect-norway/
This begs the question: when the source of easy money is tapped out how will Norwegians maintain their standard of living? With the best practice of capitalism they have learned in the past decades? Don’t think so and my money still prefers Alberta’s chances!
Vancouver housing market fueled by foreign money… most common occupation reported by owner was “homemaker”
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/vancouvers-housing-market-fuelled-by-chinese-buyers-study/article27064577/
I’m not surprised you wouldn’t post my article link when it criticizes your methodology, but all valid opinions that don’t tow your line of thinking clearly get deleted.
The article link was posted multiple times. — Garth
Regarding::
Broadway sktrn on 11.02.15 at 1:11 pm
#204 Doug in London on 11.02.15 at 11:52 am
It seems hardly a day goes by someone isn’t complaining about all that HAM ………….Why aren’t those people with all that HAM scooping up houses in places like Priddis, where these big, fancy monster homes are on sale?
——————————
really?
they are not at all interested in anything much east of cambie or main st. when priddis has 100+ good dim sum places let us know.
————————-Here’s my comment ———–
If there was any merit to HAM or Smart Asian Money Not buying in Pridis, they would buy the whole golf course and real estate project. Not a House. Many deals in BC ( west of Cambie..) not going through because they are too small, below $200,000,000 canadian dollars to double that! Insider info that.
Regards
#Speaking of Pooched…
“These guys.” — HonGarth
#Or,TheSamePeople… #WhoBroughtYou… #ThisGuy…
[DailyMail] – Disgraced former IMF chief and ‘sex addict’ Dominique Strauss-Kahn emerges as favourite to become the next French PRESIDENT
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3147694/Disgraced-former-IMF-chief-sex-addict-Dominique-Strauss-Kahn-emerges-favourite-French-PRESIDENT.html
[NoteToGT: On the brighter side, we can at least deduce that not all economists are dull…]
#223 Ralph Cramdown on 11.02.15 at 2:07 pm
#209 Bill — ‘Also a friend and hedge fund manager who consistently stays out of harms way says. ” a low teafing rang for years is most likely”’
Tell your friend to put his false teeth back in, or take off your mittens when you’re typing. Google figured out what you were trying to say, after I couldn’t.
///////////////////////////////////////
Nice one Ralphie ,can you translate for me ,I was wondering what he was on about.
#212 bdy sktrn — “it the price of the dirt. 1.1m dozerbait is 100% land value”
But what’s land value? It’s the price that the developer can sell the new house for, minus his profit and all his costs. If the anticipated price of the redeveloped house declines, so does the land value the developer will pay… and by a similar dollar amount and a greater percentage amount, as labour and material costs are less elastic.
Some of the biggest % losses in the US housing crisis were on raw or serviced land which homebuilders were caught holding in inventory. Defaulted on and sold by the banks for dimes on the dollar.
RBC removes the mortgage limits for foreign clients? A few sharp-eyed posters have linked to this.
A couple of questions come to mind:
1) I thought HAM paid with cash? Why would they need monster mortgages?
2) Given the mortgage industry’s famous history of NOT verifying income sources, or the means to repay lately, at what point does the OSFI not start cracking down on verifications?
How big is too big to fail, Canadian style?
Some of the biggest % losses in the US housing crisis were on raw or serviced land which homebuilders were caught holding in inventory. Defaulted on and sold by the banks for dimes on the dollar.
—————————————-
central urban land was sold for dimes on the dollar?
#NoSexPlease,Or… #’DeflationaryExpansion’…
#BankOfAmerica’sEconometricForecast…
[BloomBerg] – Here’s How Much QE Helped Wall Street Steamroll Main Street
“The markets have not priced in quantitative failure.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-02/here-s-how-much-qe-helped-wall-street-steamroll-main-street
“In a six-month period, 70% of detached homes sold in Vancouver’s west side went to Mainland China buyers”
http://tinyurl.com/o6o4phl
Ho lee Smook !
Not to be outdone by BC (bring cash) the Mayor of Niagara Falls , Jim Diodati along with Premier Kathleen Wynne are off to China to round up a pile of the fleeing capital for a Billion dollar City within a Ghost City project.
http://www.niagarafallsreview.ca/2015/10/30/chinese-development-significant-milestone-for-niagara
#235 For those about to flop… on 11.02.15 at 3:30 pm
Ya I didn’t even know what the hell I said. I’m on the biggie now..Its a bitch to navigate on a small hand set.
Oil to stay low for years. Any rally will be met with more spigots on. Also interest rates to stay in the bunker for years…..
The loonie is far from a bottom.
Good luck Canada your going to need it!
#186 Linda on 11.02.15 at 10:03 am
Get ready for a week of distraction as politics returns. Harper out (but still hanging around?), Trudeau in and the NDP….well, probably confused in the corner.
JT will have free rein for a while, so here’s hoping he makes some good moves quickly. Dealing with the real estate problem is not likely one of them however.
The NDP are in a festering mess that is going to get worse, I think.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/mulcair-to-ask-ex-mps-to-examine-what-went-wrong-for-ndp-in-election/article27031551/
“Defeated parties usually have a tradition of inviting defeated MPs to the inaugural caucus meeting following the election, but Mulcair said that won’t be happening in the case of the NDP.”
My sources tell me the internal invective is only getting worse by the day, and the knives are coming out. A major rethink of just who the party is will likely be coming up.
In fact, this may be a generational turning point for the NDP, Layton only a blip in the rear-view mirror. For too many Toronto NDP-type people, this was the last straw, waiting for a party to not lose its nerve when it finally had a chance at victory.
They have lived through the Ontario NDP’s strange platform last year, moving to the right of the Liberals and losing badly; the weird campaign for Toronto Mayor by Olivia Chow, also too right wing and a loser; and now this truly bizarre austerity campaign far to the right of the Liberals.
Anyone who wanted an NDP platform in this election had little choice but to vote for the Liberals. How strange, and how decisive that was in the vote.
The provincial internal bickering against Andrea Horwath included deans of the party taking out ads to denounce her last year. Expect some of those in the national party, including the defeated ones not invited to parliament this week, to do the same.
Despite the pasted-on smile, Mulcair has shown some of the same kind of controlling centralization of power in the party that Harper was famous for. This campaign was very much about him and his inner circle.
Expect the unexpected. Trudeau will have barely any coherent opposition for a year or two, I am guessing.
Tom? You blew it. You refused to let the party simply be itself, at a time when the public was more ready than ever to give a chance, to be the face of change for change’s sake. Such a chance will likely not come about again for a generation, maybe more. In the meantime, expect more to involve themselves with the Liberals, at least until it starts to cynically turn. And many more will consider the Greens, who seem very consistent.
Shame on the NDP. The other parties turn into hypocrites after being in government, we all know that.
The NDP can’t even be honest about who it is during the campaign!
____________________________________________
Mulcair to ask ex-MPs to examine what went wrong for NDP in election? Here is what went wrong. MulClair, Horvath & Chow!
#234 Nemesis on 11.02.15 at 3:26 pm
#Speaking of Pooched…
“These guys.” — HonGarth
#Or,TheSamePeople… #WhoBroughtYou… #ThisGuy…
[DailyMail] – Disgraced former IMF chief and ‘sex addict’ Dominique Strauss-Kahn emerges as favourite to become the next French PRESIDENT
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3147694/Disgraced-former-IMF-chief-sex-addict-Dominique-Strauss-Kahn-emerges-favourite-French-PRESIDENT.html
[NoteToGT: On the brighter side, we can at least deduce that not all economists are dull…]
_____________________________________________Makes sense to me, dirty old man, sex addict, of course hes French?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=35IG66H7vLE
What a stinker! Pull up a five year chart.
http://www.blackrock.com/ca/individual/en/products/239839/ishares-sptsx-capped-energy-index-etf
On the other side of the equation for globally and diversified investors? Way better.
http://www.blackrock.com/ca/individual/en/products/239697/ishares-msci-world-index-etf
Market timing, sector & commodity plays loose more than most think. How do some make back losses into big gains unless they continue “rolling the dice”?
Why take the hit?
A lot of angry posters on this Post by Garth. I am sure the volume of hate mail to Garth has been spiking as the Canadian economy and RE markets continue their descent.
Also, of course, everything I write is the truth backed up by facts easily googled.. Inspires a lot of personal stabs at my lifestyle and character. This is to be expected, and why I keep a low profile in my everyday life. Many many many people cannot handle the truth. Either through ignorance or brainwashing. The good thing is that I am a humble man and instantly forgive everyone. Few people have the awareness I do.
#241 Bill on 11.02.15 at 4:40 pm
#235 For those about to flop… on 11.02.15 at 3:30 pm
Ya I didn’t even know what the hell I said. I’m on the biggie now..Its a bitch to navigate on a small hand set.
Oil to stay low for years. Any rally will be met with more spigots on. Also interest rates to stay in the bunker for years…..
The loonie is far from a bottom.
Good luck Canada your going to need it!
////////////////////////////////////////
Hey Bill ,thanks for the clarification and the sense of humour.
You might not agree with someone but you at least want to give them a chance to explain what they are getting at,which is the whole point of a comments section.
Glad you followed up.
189 Ex-Cowtown
Thank you for showing the error of my ways. I completely forgot that it was a worldwide conspiracy, now including the reinsurers as part of the scam. Your wisdom knows no bounds!
On a completely unrelated topic, I have some low lying land for sale in Florida that I can offer you real cheap!
Limited time offer tho…
JT wants to increase immigration…more HAM”s on the way!! Goodbye first time home buyers, you’ll be renting from the HAMsters!
Sir Garth: If I may! would this be a good time to buy in to then OPG, IPO? Just a rookie here wanting to know?
#238 bdy sktrn — “central urban land was sold for dimes on the dollar?”
Nope. Suburban. But they were bought for “land value” and sold again for “land value.” Back In January, someone here was talking about how cheap building lots supposedly are in Vancouver. I responded by quickly finding a similarly priced but better lot in L.A. (original poster’s choice of comparison city, not mine) — in an area many could recognize from the description even if they’ve never visited the city:
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/01/20/the-shock-3/#comment-346277
Well, here it is November and that L.A. lot is still for sale, down from $800k to $700k:
http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/3075-Beckman-Rd_Los-Angeles_CA_90068_M22171-53316
I don’t know what you’d consider a comparable Vancouver area lot, maybe something in West Vancouver with a view? What are they, $2-3mm?
#183 Smoking Mans Wife on 11.02.15 at 9:31 am
#60 Smoking Man on 10.30.15 at 7:55 pm
Working on my next Big Drunk, two wines deep and a long way to go..
Why does one do this…Hell I don’t know
At Stir, where else on a Friday or Saturday night.
Hanging out with losers.. Makes me feel kind of superior..Teachers did a number on me. Now their running a county.
Demented habit for sure…
Waitress two more please.
__________________________________________
Mr Smoking Man I saw your disgusting up-skirt photos of the waitresses at Stir Friday night on your blog. Really your a sicko. Noticed you took them off in the morning though! What happened? A change of mind, perhaps or did you wake up and look at me in bed and say what the f$%K did I do? Again? Why did I marry you?
……
Ha
Hardly up skirt photo. Just a horizontal shot, they are very shot skirts.
And yes I took em down when I could actually focus and see what I posted.
My blogs them is universal shrinkage. didn’t fit.
Just referencing an article that supports what I am personally experiencing in here Kelowna and what those REALTORS® I work with in other parts of the province between there (Vancouver) and here (Kelowna) are saying about their markets.
As prices are pulled up, by whatever demand, in Vancouver many are choosing to relocate to less costly areas and their demand is subsequently pulling prices up in those communities they relocate to.
I’m not saying it’s a good or bad thing. It is what it is. The market is what it is and neither you nor I can change it. Which brings me to REALTORS® apparently manipulating the market. NO ONE CAN. Squeeze it here it bulges out there, squeeze it there and it bulges back out here. It does what it does and “corrects” itself eventually as needed up or down.
Price follows volume. Volume is the best leading indicator. Introduce a new source of volume and it’s going to have upward pressure on prices. Just as simple as that.
BILL #218
Thanks for the links..excellent.
Please post more.
#235 For those about to flop… on 11.02.15 at 3:30 pm
Ya, I didn’t even know what the hell I said. I’m on the biggie now..Its a bitch to navigate on a small hand set.
Oil to stay low for years. Any rally will be met with more spigots on. Also interest rates to stay in the bunker for years…..
The loonie is far from a bottom.
Good luck Canada your going to need it!
#248: If a Chinese landlord wants to lease me a space for less money than it would cost me to own it, who am I to complain? This yellow peril fearmongering is disgusting. Like JT says, a Canadian is a Canadian is a Canadian. Yes, including Canadians with non-anglicised names.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-09-19/system-world-infographic
Think this pretty much sums it all up in a nutshell.
#251 Smoking Man on 11.02.15 at 5:48 pm
My blogs them is universal shrinkage. didn’t fit.
—–
We have many organs that depend on blood flow. Shrinkage of which is your problem?
From the G&M article about Chinese buyers in Vancouver:
“The resulting study looks at transactions in three neighbourhoods on Vancouver’s west side from August, 2014, to February, 2015. It amounts to 172 sales in total, priced upward of $1.25-million. ”
“The study found that two-thirds of all sales of detached houses in the University Endowment Lands, Dunbar and Point Grey neighbourhoods were purchased by buyers with non-anglicized Chinese names”
______________________________________
Let’s not get too excited. It looked at just three neighbourhoods and the methodology was to screen for non-anglicized names.
I bet plenty of Chinese-Canadians still use their Chinese names on official documents, like land titles, which is where they got their data. And I wonder what percentage of chinese people in YVR are first/second gen canadians?
I would actually bet that you would get a similar result if you did the same analysis near UWaterloo or UofT.
Let’s say 52/172 sales are actually off-shore buyers. That means we’re using 52 chinese homemakers as a scapegoat for the biggest housing bubble in the world.
Thank Garth for your daily lesson. Please, could you expose your definition of intrinsic value? In my humble opinion this concept became harder to define since the money was detached from gold, allowing the money to be created by typing debts in one computer
I just want to learn
I can buy a case of beer with something of intrinsic value. It does not require a market and a trade to be converted into currency. — Garth
Grey dude?
Ever read a tabloid?
Zerohedge, Yeeeesh!
What nutshell?
#259 espressobob on 11.02.15 at 7:03 pm
Yes Zero Hedge and 99% of the media is absolute crap..
#252 common sense on 11.02.15 at 6:05 pm
Cheers. Just working with the hand I am dealt…
I wish the loonie was flying…While it is kinda but its a swan dive. I think a rally is in the cards and If I see .80c I’m swapping possibly 7 figures.
The trend can be your friend or your enemy.
I also agree with Garth for the most part but I prefere to be heavy in cash while risk it high and markets are wobbling.
https://api.soundcloud.com/tracks/230968346/download?secret_token=&client_id=0f8fdbbaa21a9bd18210986a7dc2d72c
– Nope. The US are going to sell oil from the strategic petroleum reserve because it’s part of the deal over the US federal budget. It means that the federal government & Congress can reach a financial deal more easily. Everyone wants to spend more but no one wants to cut expenses too much. So, the compromise was to sell some oil. It greased the (financial) wheels, so to speak.
– Falling real estate prices in Calgary/(“Cowtown” ??) is very deflationary. Take that house in the Priddis. Appraised for $ 2.2 million but was auctioned/sold for $1.2 million. If the previous owner had a mortgage of $ 2.2 million as well, then that owner is in deep trouble. The owner could still have debt to the tune of $ 1 million without a house. Sounds like the bank who gave the loan could end up writing off $ 1 million. Very deflationary.
#225 Nagraj on 11.02.15 at 2:14 pm
…As far as I can tell, PONZIUS, LALA, and KREDITANSTALT are expatriate Oesterreicher (and ditto for Austrian-born moi). Isn’t it odd there should be four (or more?) Habsburg blogdogs?
It’s presumably because you’re all economics hounds who happen to be Austrian. If we have reached the peak Austrian economist event horizon, we’re doomed beyond any possible rescue…
On the subject of dogs, I have to announce the demise of my dear Mother’s senior dachshund, Winston. He was old, fat, deaf, had a leg at each corner, loved his grub and was game for anything. He is survived by Salem (Sally) who doesn’t care a bit. I suppose he was a bit of a drag – for our own amusement we insisted on harnessing them together, so she probably killed him by pulling him too far and too fast.
Nope to whom?
The oil sale is no big deal in the big pic.
If a house is appraised for 2.2mil does not mean the owner had a 2.2mil mort.
Anyone that could buy a house for 2.2mil certainly wouldn’t finance 100% even if they could unless they had a screw loose.
People cant just wake away from the keys. Its more complicated.
If it auctioned then maybe the original price or cost was 1.2mil??? So assuming those numbers is pretty much useless without facts or a balance sheet….
We WILL be stuck in the mud with virtually no growth or inflation for some time.
#247 Bobs ur uncle on 11.02.15 at 5:13 pm
189 Ex-Cowtown
Thank you for showing the error of my ways. I completely forgot that it was a worldwide conspiracy, now including the reinsurers as part of the scam. Your wisdom knows no bounds!
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Do you honestly believe that these guys go into a business to lose money?
Well, maybe you do. They don’t though. They want bonuses and stock options. They smell money, and a lot of it.
“Only half the deficit spending is for building stuff. The rest is just, well, spending. — Garth”
What was Harper’s deficit spending for?
Some people are still mistaken many Canadian passport holders as Canadians.
As for anglicized Chinese names, how does one anglicize
Wong?
[…] “The buyer paid $1.1 million — the price of a dumpy 1970s Vancouver special,” wrote investment advisor and former MP Garth Turner in a recent blog. […]