Porkers

POO modified

Chris owns a rental house in the Kingdom of 416, and asked me in an email this week if he should bail, because of the kid PM. “In one of your recent posts you discuss the impact of the Liberals budget that could be announced  – if they move quickly. I have an investment property in a desirable neighbourhood that I’ve been thinking of selling next spring.

“In your mind, how quickly does real estate get affected by this? Obviously the Feds are really the ones holding the cards in terms of interest rates going up, but long story short in your mind is a housing crash coming as early as spring? I’m pretty green when it comes to this sort of thing so figured I would ask the expert.”

So I said to him, expect no crash. But with a smoky market and shortage of listings, why not sell now? And he said:

“Investment properties have made the smartest people in my life richer than investing in stocks. That in 1-2 years the property could bring in more and more positive cash flow. Suffice it to say that if I sell in ten years the building would be worth more even after weathering dare-I-say a huge recession, and the mortgage will be paid down. It’s been 8 years of real estate growth in a hot market and it’s given me a great return, anyway I have been back and forth like a chess player analyzing the outcome because it’s a big decision and a big house.”

My reply was what you’d expect from a pucker-lipped, calcified, emotionless curmudgeon who sees nothing but augmenting risk in a one-horse, house-lusty portfolio strategy in the age of interventionist politics. Smart investors harvest profits, I said. And you’ve made no ‘great returns’ until you sell. Greedy people, on the other hand, usually suffer. When things inevitably fall, they bail and get plucked.

This brings us to the latest house price forecast, from the pointy heads at CMHC. Given that the government agency is married to the real estate development and financing industries, you should always expect these guys to see unicorns, sunshine and ponies in the years ahead. So this forecast is telling. Almost dour.

Here are the conclusions: First, more people will be looking for “moderately-priced houses”, which is tough news for Vancouver and the Lower Mainland, detached sellers in 416 as well as all those oil execs trying to bail out of Calgary’s tony hoods. Second, housing starts will decline for the next three years, even without those inevitably higher mortgage rates. Third, MLS sales are also expected to drop modestly and, fourth, prices will rise 1.3% in 2016 and 1.4% in 2017.

If accurate (and CMHC traditionally errs on the side of unbridled endorphins) that means real estate appreciation over the next two years will be less than inflation. Meanwhile, does anyone really expect property tax increases to be under 1.5%? Or the cost of electricity to stay stable? Or insurance premiums? And yes, Trudeau II will also be raising taxes for many homeowners while running deficits that will likely increase mortgage rates and prevent the Bank of Canada from nipping theirs.

Meanwhile, after eight years of gains, why would you not want to crystallize the profits? Maybe our ambitious new leader will decide to eat the rich further in budgets to come, upping the capital gains tax by dropping the 50% exclusion rate to, say 40% or less. I’ve heard rumblings. After all, only the wealthy own investment properties, Chris. Rentiers = evil.

The point is simple: real estate as an investment involves a huge capital outlay, usually massive financing at variable rates, unknown future maintenance costs, recurring ownership charges, a poor ROI (especially when vacancies and renos are factored in), stiff purchase and exit fees and taxable returns. If you were lucky enough to own during a period of capital appreciation that overcomes these drags, why not grab the prize?

Because, says Chris, there may be more to come.

Let’s review what they say on The Street, where equity investors live and die. Bulls make money. Bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered.

If you think the second Monday night in October changed nothing, you had stars in your eyes. This is now selfie nation. And it’s not about you.

M-0219-Trudeau-mb-1 - Federal Liberal leader Justin Trudeau pauses for a selfie with Zhara Ghane as he makes his way through the throngs at Pacific Mall, Thursday. Mr. Trudeau stopped in to participate in Chinese New Year Celebrations.

193 comments ↓

#1 MSM-Free Zone on 10.28.15 at 6:20 pm

“kid PM” ?

When does a 43-year-old graduate from being “kid” to “old stock”?

Inquiring minds need to know….

#2 Broke Dick on 10.28.15 at 6:20 pm

Granted, approximately no one expected the Fed to raise rates, what with a slew of so-so U.S. economic data (employment numbers disappointed earlier this month) and continuing uncertainty over the global landscape.

http://business.financialpost.com/investing/investing-pro/the-u-s-feds-glass-is-half-full-and-half-empty-so-investors-will-just-have-to-wait

The U.S. Federal Reserve left its key interest rate unchanged today, but economists and analysts parsing the statement say the more hawkish tone puts a December rate hike back on the radar.

“This is more of a hawkish statement,” said Gary Pollack, who manages $12 billion as head of fixed-income trading at Deutsche Bank AG’s Private Wealth Management unit in New York. “It’s not as dovish as the Street was expecting. It leaves December wide open for the Fed to move if it wants to. But many suspect the move for a December rate hike is to uphold Garth’s reputation with the dogs.”

http://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/the-fed-tells-markets-see-you-in-december

#3 Goldie on 10.28.15 at 6:22 pm

Ugh. Selfie Nation. Please no.

#4 Alberta wing-nuts on 10.28.15 at 6:23 pm

Each of the 3 parties understood and still understand, “don’t mess with housing”, period. I doubt they’ll be messing with capital gains especially those in regards to housing. It has become too-big to mess with just because it has become such an important job sector…

#5 S.Bby on 10.28.15 at 6:28 pm

Chris is the typical amateur real estate “investor”; don’t really know what they are doing but got lucky with speculation on the way up. Will get killed by their greed on the way down. Probably doesn’t even know what cap rate is or how to calculate it. He will not sell until it is too late.

#6 Peter on 10.28.15 at 6:34 pm

Hey Justin send us Snapchat

#7 BC Guy on 10.28.15 at 6:35 pm

Real estate values in most parts of Canada will never drop, and in many areas, will only keep rising. Why?

– Canada is the “best country in the world”
– Canada has a generous immigration and refugee policy – they all gotta live somewhere
– the crisis in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan will only accelerate the number of people wanted to migrate to Canada, and with a new Liberal PM, the numbers allowed in will increase
– interest rates will stay low for a long, long time, maybe rise a 1/4% this year, maybe 1/2% next year – maybe
– Boomers and other wrinklies are hanging on to their real estate for much longer
– many wealthy Canadians are speculating on real estate, buying up condos, multi-unit rental accomodations, houses, cottages, some wealthy people own 5 properties or more
– the rich foreign investors (China, US, Russia, UK) are buying up houses and large plots of land for development
– there have been many young Canadians shut out of the housing market, wanting to start families and are desperate to buy a place they can afford
– all levels of government are not releasing land for development
– all levels of government, including the banks, real estate agents and developers are making it easier to borrow money, giving incentives to buy homes, renovate them, flip, repeat

A perfect storm to drive up the price of real estate for decades to come.
Average house price Vancouver 2015 – 1 million
2017 1.5 million
2020 2.0 million
2022 2.5 million

The sky’s the limit.

#8 praire person on 10.28.15 at 6:36 pm

Stockhouse @ the Bell: A stock market rally fades, then comes back, as traders watch the Fed; Bond yields rise

#9 james on 10.28.15 at 6:49 pm

“Investment properties have made the smartest people in my life richer than investing in stocks.”

What does this statement mean?

That he doesn’t know many people who invest in stocks.

Taken on aggregate, markets beat home prices over medium to long time horizons.

The only reason that Canadians love housing so much as an investment is that it offers them 95-100% leverage, something no brokerage would ever contemplate.

Although not a Canadian homeowners, I take some solace in fact that our corporate shares (forming 50% of my income) have risen from 300 to 750 in the last two years. Yes, I greatly envy your 7% rise in home prices per year.

(PS: prices in our neck of the woods in Seattle are up 11% YoY two years running.. no one here is celebrating, because they know that high home prices are not a good thing)

#10 NextYear on 10.28.15 at 6:49 pm

No rate hike from the FED today… Rate hike now most likely for April 2016…

Remember a year ago, it was set for March 2015… then June 2015… then September 2015… then December 2015 and now April 2016.

Well still a small chance of a December Hike… until we reach December of course

When will people wake up to the CON???

#11 Jacko on 10.28.15 at 6:50 pm

Wow…every day I read the new rules of trying to make it in this country, you have to wonder why those who want are willing to take risk, employee people, supply affordable rent and want to get ahead, will stay in this country? Now there is a push to lower capital gain exemption down to 40% on rental properties? I guess the only way is to pay more to save more, that is to go about the final ways to save from the tax man.

So I had to incorporate myself, opened a family trust, buy an incorporated company that manufacturers and employees people and contracts myself to lead my purchased company and own an 6plex (2 commercial, 4 residential ) that I better sell now to the “condo” developer (there goes affordable housing). Hopefully I will be able to curb the government on their own rules, but sheesh, its getting harder and more expensive to do this every year. When is it the right time to cash in and move on to where money and risk is truly rewarded? Do I leave the money in the country I love or take to the country that treats me fair?

#12 Bobs ur uncle on 10.28.15 at 6:53 pm

I am starting to wonder. If this guy had asked the same question 5 years ago you’d have given him the same advice, and he might be regretting it now. Very difficult to time the market, whatever market it may be. The indicators suggest we will hit a price ceiling soon, but no one knows for sure when. I’d still say sell if you want to sleep comfortably at night, but I wonder what a betting man like smoking man would do…ride it out with a bottle of JD to settle the nerves?

#13 JG on 10.28.15 at 6:56 pm

Just got a memo from Scotiabank that effective Nov 2, they are raising their 5 year closed VRM by .10%.

Not much, but I can’t recall the last time they sent me a rate increase. :)

#14 Bottoms_Up on 10.28.15 at 7:01 pm

T2 is our first GenX PM, and will do well for our country (already has).

#15 common sense on 10.28.15 at 7:08 pm

The question is…after taking his profits after he sells, will he have the discipline to invest it wisely?

And in this environment where bad news is good news, will a large portion of his portfolio be bought at the top range of the market?

Yes I know, diversify, diversify, diversify and yes, no crystal ball of the future market..

#16 young & foolish on 10.28.15 at 7:10 pm

Rental property in 416 sounds like certain positive cash flow to me …. sort of like preferreds.

Not a chance. Positive cash flow is almost impossible to achieve. — Garth

#17 common sense on 10.28.15 at 7:14 pm

Question…Just what IS a rate hike?

I forget everything after 8 years…

#18 JimH on 10.28.15 at 7:15 pm

#7 BC Guy on 10.28.15 at 6:35 pm
“Real estate values in most parts of Canada will never drop, and in many areas, will only keep rising. Why?”
—————————————————————
Really? Take your head out of your butt and come up for air.

On second thought…

Put it back in… The word will be a better place.

#19 jerry on 10.28.15 at 7:18 pm

I can’t help but notice that Justin Trudeau’ plan to allow easier access to use RRSP for housing purchases is now coinciding with the Ontario Liberals plan to expand the potential of doubling the land transfer tax obligation on those very purchases.

The meager savings in a young millenial’ RRSP would simply disappear into the Liberal cash grab.

Do government tax departments actually think strategically like that?

#20 Stephen J. Harper Airport Security Guard on 10.28.15 at 7:21 pm

Dear Mr. Turner

Per the letter that is being sent to you, please be advised:

On your next trip through Stephen J. Harper International Airport, you will be subjected to enhanced frisk and pat-down procedures, as a possible threat to the Right Honourable Mr. Harper, ex officio.

Please bring additional undergarments when you go through security screening. Also, due to the electrical impulses you will be subjected to, we advise you also bring a rubber mouth guard and some toilet paper.

Welcome to Calgary!

#21 45north on 10.28.15 at 7:22 pm

S.Bby: Probably doesn’t even know what cap rate is or how to calculate it. He will not sell until it is too late.

cap rate: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capitalization_rate

Chris doesn’t know real estate until the day he puts his house up for sale.

pigs get slaughtered

#22 young & foolish on 10.28.15 at 7:26 pm

“Yes I know, diversify, diversify, diversify ….”

These days, with markets so interdependent, I wonder if that strategy still works … ??

Still love your name. — Garth

#23 Van Isle Renter on 10.28.15 at 7:27 pm

Re: yesterday’s GTA tax bill discussion.

I see what was happening; we were having an apples to oranges discussion. I assumed by tax bill at $32K, GT was talking annual property tax bill, not the land transfer tax.

We were both right; the LTT is $32K, but the annual tax bill is ONLY around $7500 (which still makes me puke a little bit in my mouth).

The devil is in the details, or in the GTA’s case, in Queen’s Park.

#24 Spectacle on 10.28.15 at 7:29 pm

So, Chris believes there are only two ponies in the race to bet on: 1) Real estate, and 2) stocks? Ouch….

From the Matrix:
Morpheus: This is your last chance. After this, there is no turning back. You take the blue pill – the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill – you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit-hole goes.

As Smokey would say….the “Harvested” , the “everyday sheeple” chooses the blue pill. Same old story .

Mr Turner shares the red pill ……… So we can write our own story with vision and clarity of sorts .

#25 Brian on 10.28.15 at 7:33 pm

The fundamentals that have propped up prices at ridiculous levels will continue on the same course.

I forsee no changes in this stupid RE market. Been reading this blog for 3 years now and things have just gotten worse. Ferf*cksakes.

In a majority of markets in Canada real estate is stagnant or slipping. 604 and 416 do not constitute the nation. — Garth

#26 Nora Lenderby on 10.28.15 at 7:34 pm

“…pucker-lipped, calcified, emotionless curmudgeon…”

At least you’re not slack-jawed, spineless or gushing, Mr. T. For the curmudgeon, there’s an organization:

http://www.cafepress.ca/mf/63520023/curmudgeon_sticker?productId=604108309

#27 Prairieboy43 on 10.28.15 at 7:36 pm

Trudeau2 !! LOL.
Been waiting for a while. Just picked up a Bank Business Dispersal for $0.05 on the dollar. Divorce case. Didn’t end well. Back in Business. Not sure about retirement in my forties. “Just not ready yet”. Time for more fun. Time to Create and Keep a customer. Love the West.
PB43

#28 omg the original on 10.28.15 at 7:36 pm

Suffice it to say that if I sell in ten years the building would be worth more even after weathering dare-I-say a huge recession, and the mortgage will be paid down.
——————————–

RE in TO has had a spectacular run, absolutely spectacular. To bank on it being worth more in ten years time really is betting against the odds.

TO is so out of sync with long run house valuation for a city of its size. Of course people will ell you its different in TO – it never is.

So…….people figured they were golden in 1989 in Toronto – real estate had about doubled in the previous 7 years, people were paying key money just to get the right to lease an apartment, and TO was a “World Class City”. From the lens of 1989 TO prices could do nothing but go up.

Ten years later TO prices were down about 25% (40% when adjusted for inflation).

TO was the poster child for slow and grinding retrenchment to the long run valuations.

You could be right and prices could continue to go up, but there is a much higher likelihood of a return to normal.

#29 MSM-Free Zone on 10.28.15 at 7:48 pm

#7 BC Guy on 10.28.15 at 6:35 pm
_________________________

In other words, extraction-dependent Canada continues to circle the toilet, as no corporation in its right mind would ever re-invest into skills and training in a country who citizens require above-market wages to pay for overpriced housing.

#30 Randy on 10.28.15 at 7:53 pm

Race to the Bottom. If Ontario has a serious Debt Crisis, the feds and the rest of Canada will have to bail us out. Quebec and the Atlantic provinces will continue to spend like crazy to get in on the action.

The Fed disgusts me more everyday. They should be NUKED.

#31 PeterfromCalgary on 10.28.15 at 7:54 pm

Why has the voting public gone insane? Left wing crazies are now in charge of Alberta and slightly less crazy liberals will also soon be running the country. What is wrong with our democracy? We vote in losers based on some stupid desire for change rather then what is best for our finances and our country?

#32 young & foolish on 10.28.15 at 8:01 pm

“So, Chris believes there are only two ponies in the race to bet on: 1) Real estate, and 2) stocks? Ouch….”

well, you can buy debt …
stocks are usually bets on future earnings …
what else is there?

#33 Snowboid on 10.28.15 at 8:06 pm

#7 BC Guy on 10.28.15 at 6:35 pm…

What? The crickets at your open house getting you down?

How about posting something out of the realtors top twenty reasons to close with those wary buyers?

Oh wait, you just did!

Disclosure: We did make some pretty good dollars on investment properties, but sold them may years ago.

Still own a property in AZ (and our home in the Okanagan), but the AZ home wasn’t intended as an investment – it just turned out to be a good one anyway.

However, now is not the time to try and make money on RE in Canada.

#34 the Jaguar on 10.28.15 at 8:09 pm

On the subject of real estate ownership including out of country ownership, both national papers included interesting bits today about how being absent from the country too much could result in a claw back of OAS benefits. Possible enhancements to the 2011 Perimeter Agreement could mean that people departing and arriving at border crossings or on airplanes will be ‘tagged and tallied’ for number of absent days. OAS benefits involve 40 years residency in the country after age 18, so if your absentee total depletes those 40 years your benefits will be reduced. I think there is something on the CRA site as well about these changes as they impact other tax credits.
Good stuff to know who think they want to buy a second home down south or in other places….

#35 omg the original on 10.28.15 at 8:10 pm

Not a chance. Positive cash flow is almost impossible to achieve. — Garth
——————-

Unless you use a realtor’s cash-flow calculations;

– no vacancy allowance
– no maintenance costs
– no allowance for opportunity cost of the down payment
– no management fees (ok you can manage it yourself so long as you don’t mind those 3 AM emergency phone calls)

#36 Ret on 10.28.15 at 8:10 pm

#29 I agree.
No one would set up a factory for any manufacturing operation in Ontario for the same reasons. Who can compete with public sector workers such as fire, police, teachers, nurses etc. all making >$90,000, many over $100,000.

Postal workers, school caretakers and public sector secretaries clock in at $50,000 with a full package of benefits and pension. City workers are good for $60,000 minimum even if they just drive around all day in a truck looking for a place to hide.

#37 Just wondering on 10.28.15 at 8:12 pm

Wonder if RE prices in 416 and 604 will stay high, similar to New York, and London UK because people seem to want to live in these places. When/if there is a correction is it possible it may not be as low or long as in the Rest of Canada? RE prices are cyclical yes, but perhaps variable depending on the market?

#38 Mark on 10.28.15 at 8:14 pm

If the 1990s are any indication, landlords will stagnate for at least a decade, if not longer, while suffering the burden of increasingly high finance costs. Meanwhile, a mere downpayment, 25%, invested at the beginning of the stock market’s rally circa 1993, in the next 7 years, grew to be enough to purchase the house outright, in cash at the end of the decade. Even more if one invested in Nortel or Bombardier shares.

I can’t believe anyone would put the words “real estate” and “smart investor” in the same sentence these days. Actually RE has traditionally been an asset class that capital has gone to die in. As it stands today, you get at least triple the value by buying a plain old index fund like XIU.

#39 Mark on 10.28.15 at 8:17 pm

“Wonder if RE prices in 416 and 604 will stay high”

Doubtful. They didn’t in the 1990s. Why would they today?

Real estate values in most parts of Canada will never drop

Doubtful. We’re already a couple years into the slow-motion RE melt, and by all indications, it has started to accelerate downwards. Timeframes are unfolding similar to that of the USA, with roughly 3 years between the statistical apex of the market, and the panic phase. We’re on the leading edge of the panic phase after the statistical peak was reached in mid-2013, coinciding with changes to subprime mortgages at the CMHC introduced by the Minister of Finance in Budget 2013.

#40 MSM-Free Zone on 10.28.15 at 8:19 pm

#31 PeterfromCalgary on 10.28.15 at 7:54 pm
Why has the voting public gone insane?
_________________________

Au contraire, they sanely voted out a bunch of hypocritical liars, at both the provincial and federal levels, who had no intention of governing conservative.

#41 bdy sktn on 10.28.15 at 8:26 pm

#5 S.Bby on 10.28.15 at 6:28 pm

Chris is the typical amateur real estate “investor”; don’t really know what they are doing but got lucky with speculation on the way up. Will get killed by their greed on the way down. 
____________________
Bitter and resentful much? Sure seems like it.

#42 Gulf Breeze on 10.28.15 at 8:29 pm

Doesn’t seem like the best advice to me. Take money out of a house he purchased eight years ago and will be paid off in 10 years — to do what? Harvest paltry bond yields, or enter into risky stock markets? Decent rental real estate is very hard to come by and that is not likely to change anytime soon.

Revenue generating real estate may be risky, but everything else is looking riskier.

The only money he’s made is on market-driven capital appreciation, and not to harvest it defeats the goal of investing. Instead of having a one-asset strategy his risk would be considerably reduced with a diversified portfolio. — Garth

#43 Leo Trollstoy on 10.28.15 at 8:30 pm

Normally I would quickly agree with Garth and his advice to Chris. But Toronto is such a messed up animal. Chris is 8 years into his investment and has probably seen the value of the property double like virtually every other property in godless 416.

Although Toronto real estate across the sales mix has defied gravity for almost 20 years I think Chris can’t go wrong selling.

Sell. Pay your cap gains tax. Move your gains into a balanced portfolio that has a 60% allocation to the U.S.

#44 young & foolish on 10.28.15 at 8:30 pm

“I can’t believe anyone would put the words “real estate” and “smart investor” in the same sentence these days. ”

Incredible statement …. stay with XIU … it’s done really well over the last 10 years.

Investing in one fund is as nonsensical as having all your net worth in one address. Bad argument. — Garth

#45 John on 10.28.15 at 8:33 pm

RE 20 Stephen J. Harper Airport Security Guard

Many have already signed a petition aiming to prevent naming the airport after a man with no moral compass:

http://www.thepetitionsite.com/en-gb/157/899/440/prevent-renaming-the-calgary-international-airport/

Here is another one suggesting to rename the East Calgary Landfill to Stephen Harper Landfill

http://www.thepetitionsite.com/en-gb/249/927/546/rename-the-east-calgary-landfill-the-%22stephen-j.-harper-landfill%22/#sign

“Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s legacy of trashy politics, garbage policies and wasteful corruption makes this an excellent way to remember him. Canada dumped him as PM and now you could dump your junk in the Harper Landfill!”

#46 Paul on 10.28.15 at 8:33 pm

Well one thing you can thank landlords for is having something for people to rent and put a roof over their heads.
At least 30% of “single family homes” in Durham region have basements or some other rental in their home.
Just where would they live without these landlords?
There is not enough low cost housing for 1/10 of the folks that need it.
So the by-law office, C.R.A.and the politicians look the other way

#47 Ray Skunk on 10.28.15 at 8:35 pm

#19 Jerry

I can’t help but notice that Justin Trudeau’ plan to allow easier access to use RRSP for housing purchases is now coinciding with the Ontario Liberals plan to expand the potential of doubling the land transfer tax obligation on those very purchases.

The meager savings in a young millenial’ RRSP would simply disappear into the Liberal cash grab.

Do government tax departments actually think strategically like that?

This is a prime example of the Gerald Butts strategic mind at work.

There is another edge to the raid-the-RRSP-to-fund-RE sword, that is to further erode private retirement savings (along with rolled back TFSA) which then “justifies” an enhanced CPP, and in Ontario’s case, the ORPP – the proceeds of which will be “invested” in union kickbacks for perpetual reelection.

Justin and Nanny Wynne know best for your retirement and don’t you dare question it.

#48 young & foolish on 10.28.15 at 8:36 pm

“Not a chance. Positive cash flow is almost impossible to achieve. — Garth”

Agreed, if you are using current market valuations to calculate cap rate. But, it’s also about diversification and maintaining multiple sources for cash flow.

Buying one building gives you zero diversification. — Garth

#49 MSM-Free Zone on 10.28.15 at 8:39 pm

#36 Ret on 10.28.15 at 8:10 pm
____________________

Actually, given our housing bubble and current cost of living here in Canada, the wages you speak of are not exorbitant.

In retrospect, it is the private sector of the middle class who have witnessed their incomes gutted through foreign outsourcing, off-shoring, and an accelerated Temporary Foreign Worker program.

#50 Daisy Mae on 10.28.15 at 8:40 pm

#1: “kid PM” ? When does a 43-year-old graduate from being “kid” to “old stock”?

************************

Some respect is in order. No doubt about it. If the 1% is miffed, wait for the damn budget and quit jumping to conclusions.

Many here gave the last PM no respect. It’s fair comment. — Garth

#51 omg the original on 10.28.15 at 8:40 pm

Just wondering on 10.28.15 at 8:12 pm
Wonder if RE prices in 416 and 604 will stay high, similar to New York, and London UK
————————

Actually NYC prices are lower than Toronto and YVR. And London is also in bubble mode right now.

Most people do not know, that London had a major bubble run-up in the 1980s only to retrace to pre-bubble levels by the mid 1990s. Yep, all the way back to pre-bubble levels in real dollar terms.

And BTW, as much as we might aspire that they be so, TO and YVR are not anything close to NYC or London. At best they are pleasant mid-sized 2nd or 3rd tier cities on par with the likes of Seattle, Milwaukee, but a hard stretch to Chicago.

#52 bdy sktn on 10.28.15 at 8:43 pm

Keep the house . Rent will cover all your expenses in life in 10 yrs once it is paid off.

It’s sweet to collect rent on a paid place.

5k per month goes a long way in 416/604

The same money invested in financial assets would double the income and halve the tax. Bad advice. — Garth

#53 bdy sktn on 10.28.15 at 8:45 pm

Yvr=Milwaukee

Ho Ho ha snort ohhh wow. Breathe. Hahaha haha haha. Breathe. Ahhhh Ho hahaha. Wipe up spittle….

#54 bdy sktn on 10.28.15 at 8:47 pm

Milwaukee . Jesus.
The hate for 604 has you gone way over the edge of sanity.

#55 Leo Trollstoy on 10.28.15 at 8:50 pm

#48 young & foolish on 10.28.15 at 8:36 pm

Being primarily a property investor I just wanted to let you know that it’s virtually impossible to achieve diversification in real estate unless the investor is dealing with astronomical sums of money.

Even a well-to-do U.S. peer of mine, who purchased a 40-50 unit apartment in 2010, is still confined to 1 building on a single block.

Sure, he’s diversified in the sense that typical vacancies won’t hurt, but outside of that, I would say that he’s more concentrated than diversified.

#56 Leo Trollstoy on 10.28.15 at 8:52 pm

#1: “kid PM” ? When does a 43-year-old graduate from being “kid” to “old stock”?

After 2 consecutive terms?

#57 Randy on 10.28.15 at 8:55 pm

In the Canadian Welfare State people choose to live around the urban centres that never run out of Welfare money.

#58 young & foolish on 10.28.15 at 8:58 pm

OK, I give up …. RE is just too expensive, so if you own some, sell it, and if you don’t , wait.

Or be a pig and get slaughtered.

#59 cramar on 10.28.15 at 8:59 pm

#1 MSM-Free Zone on 10.28.15 at 6:20 pm
“kid PM” ?

When does a 43-year-old graduate from being “kid” to “old stock”?

Inquiring minds need to know….

——————–

When he has 2 terms of PM in his CV. Welcome to Trudeaumania 2.0.

#60 Mark on 10.28.15 at 8:59 pm

“Incredible statement …. stay with XIU … it’s done really well over the last 10 years.”

That’s why XIU is so cheap. It hasn’t moved much in 10 years while the Canadian economy, and the Canadian corporations of which it is constituted, have grown, cleaned up their balance sheets, and are largely priced closer to the bottom of their cyclical ranges rather than at the top. On a P/E, P/B, dividend yield basis, the Canadian stock market indices haven’t been this cheap for a very long time. The index level is similar to 2009 levels once you adjust for retained earnings.

I’m not advocating a one-asset strategy by any means (yes, follow Garth’s advice, be diversified), but smart investors buy things when they’re cheap. Ideally after a lengthy period of stagnation. Not when they’re at nosebleed prices such as most Canadian real estate is, and increasingly, a good chunk of US real estate.

#61 Mark on 10.28.15 at 9:01 pm

” I just wanted to let you know that it’s virtually impossible to achieve diversification in real estate”

Guess you’ve never heard of a REIT then.

#62 young & foolish on 10.28.15 at 9:03 pm

#55 Leo Trollstoy on 10.28.15 at 8:50 pm

In mentioning diversification, I am assuming multiple investments are made (including stocks and bonds and as in beyond Canada).

#63 common sense on 10.28.15 at 9:06 pm

Same in Canada?
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/2015/10/7-charts-single-family-housing-industry/

#64 Washed Up Lawyer on 10.28.15 at 9:07 pm

A contretemps is brewing up here in Ft. McMortgage. I will await it hitting the local rag before dangling the steak in front of the dogs.

At this time it is not clear if it will result in a bench clearing, a pier six brawl or a brouhaha.

It might just be a face rubbing from a former Junior hardrock blueliner who hits the JD hard.

Stay tuned. And no, do not ask. I will not disclose the local jaw wagging and chirping until it plays out.

#65 Victor V on 10.28.15 at 9:23 pm

Oilsands producer Devon Canada lays off 150 employees, reducing Alberta workforce by 15%

http://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/oilsands-producer-devon-canada-lays-off-150-employees-reducing-alberta-workforce-by-15

#66 Randy on 10.28.15 at 9:51 pm

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10153700164067629&set=p.10153700164067629&type=3

#67 Gulf Breeze on 10.28.15 at 9:55 pm

Garth, You say, “the only money he has made is on capital appreciation.” Uh huh… And your point is?

If he doesn’t have to generate income, that sounds okay. You know, the old buy and hold scenario that stock bugs love so much? Be patient, weather downturns. Be disciplined, keep ploughing money into diversified funds, come rain or shine. Do a big yippee if you are getting 4% yield from bonds!!! Yeay!! What is the difference?

Interest rates are going up like….never. If stocks keep taking a beating, capital will continue to pool in tangible assets in areas deemed ‘safe’ by the domestic population and citizens from other countries.

Hold on to that revenue real estate…houses, not condos.

#68 Smoking Man on 10.28.15 at 9:57 pm

Exhausted, year end sucks.

What have I missed

#69 45north on 10.28.15 at 10:03 pm

Meanwhile, does anyone really expect property tax increases to be under 1.5%? Or the cost of electricity to stay stable?

Kathleen Wynne plans to sell Hydro One to raise money. You have to expect that the transfer to the private sector would raise rates. This is a betrayal of the spirit of Adam Beck who pioneered the development of electricity in Ontario.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adam_Beck

Joanne Chianello’s article provides an insight into Hydro One: 45,000 people who live within Ottawa’s municipal boundaries are customers not of the 100 per cent city-owned Hydro Ottawa, but of the provincially owned Hydro One.

http://ottawacitizen.com/opinion/columnists/0317-col-chianello

these 45,000 people are basically cash cows for Hydro One who subsidizes more remote areas in Ontario.

It may be impossible to supply Ontario with cheap reliable electricity. Kathleen Wynne seems to adopt a Homer Simpson-like philosophy “you know son, if something is hard, it’s not worth doing”.

#70 Freedom First on 10.28.15 at 10:14 pm

Yes. Greed and fear are deadly and to be avoided like the plague.

Experience and knowledge pay the best dividends over time. Newbies, especially the moist virgin homebuyers unthinkingly buy into homes they cannot afford, thinking houses always go up. What the virgins do not know, is their risk tolerance. The same goes for people investing in markets who do not know what they are doing and are unaware of their risk tolerance.

I know my risk tolerance. I can buy when things bottom, and I can sell when they soar. I keep it simple. I am always liquid, diversified and balanced enough to be in my comfort level. When opportunity knocks, I don’t hesitate. When it is re-balancing time, I just do it. I am never concerned with trying to ever hit the absolute bottom to buy, nor the absolute peak to sell. And never never never be over exposed to any one a$$et that could hurt me.

Now, the majority, not knowing their risk tolerance, nor what they are doing, have no idea of the bad judgments they will make when the emotions of fear or greed kick in. Until they do the worst possible thing at the worst possible time. They call it panic when selling, and euphoria when buying, both at the wrong times. Euphoria can lead to extreme greed, holding to long, or shudder, doubling down.

#71 common sense on 10.28.15 at 10:21 pm

#70 Freedom First

Best post of yours I have ever read…beautiful.

#72 G on 10.28.15 at 10:35 pm

“Many here gave the last PM no respect. It’s fair comment. — Garth”

That’s because he doesn’t deserve any respect. The Cons even tampered with some of the ballots in this election and they finally admitted to cheating in previous elections

Link? — Garth

#73 Smoking Man on 10.28.15 at 10:48 pm

Humanity.

Wierd Energy force occupying meat and bones.
Made of Star Dust.
Free ride on a plant circling a ball of fire.
Which circles a black hole.
Which is slowly being drawn to other black holes.

Lord, why didn’t you make me a black hole.

Ok dogs save the ass hole jokes I beat you to them. In my mind anyway.

If I can shake this fever, year end done.

Senica tomorrow till Saturday… Good posts coming.

#74 Leo Trollstoy on 10.28.15 at 10:49 pm

#61 Mark on 10.28.15 at 9:01 pm

Everything in bricks or everything in a Trust still doesn’t sound diversified to me.

#75 Millmech on 10.28.15 at 10:50 pm

#50 Daisy May
I’m still waiting for your numbers on how the TFSA only benefits the rich as you posted.Could you please post your math/budgeting for how this is a detriment to low and middle class Canadians.Thanks

#76 espressobob on 10.28.15 at 11:03 pm

Diversified investors look to cash flow or “yield” along with some growth. RE may play center stage but could prove a black hole with many beyond the event horizon.

Owners pay the exorbitant costs. Leverage on one asset class could bite one in the ass. S.O.B. Renting has its merits.

#77 learningfromyou on 10.28.15 at 11:06 pm

Thank Garth for the post.

Just to add pain to the injury in relation to the insurance companies, look at this real example of 3 days ago

My friend was paying the car insurance monthly,around 35$ per month, he never paid it with any half of any dollar bill, the car was made in 2000, a few days ago another car gently “touched” the passenger side and the repair costs 1800. He was not guilty in the accident.

The insurance company declared the car as a total lost and said that because of the year of the car they can only buy the car from him in 900 dollars.

In one side we can think that the car is too old, and based in the books this is the real value of it, etc.

In another side I think that for the insurance companies we pay for a service to be received on these circumstances,but in fact we’re paying an expensive service that in reality we won’t receive, then my question is always the same
?WTF we were paying for…?

With all due respect, for me it’s like legal robbery. IMHO we suppose to pay the service according to its qualities.

So, there is one metric to determine the “Premium” of your car insurance, and another complete different metric to receive back the service we expected.

I do not live in Ontario where one day people will ride horses because of the insurance prohibited prices,
every time I bring the subject to colleagues living there I had the feeling they wanted to grab and squeeze my neck through the telephone line.

#78 Upenuff on 10.28.15 at 11:24 pm

604 madness in real estate carries on…..neighbour’s place put on market for 1,840000 just to see if any takers …. well over priced they thought. 3 offers in less than 4 days too which became almost a bidding war selling at over 1.9 Cash deal….off shore money, zero inspection and want the furniture inside….. the madness in 604 continues. Dont even consider real estate price comparisons with yvr unless u r hong kong, new york, LA, or Sydney buyers….. speechless

#79 Interstellar Old Yeller on 10.28.15 at 11:25 pm

Chris: you’ve seen a handsome appreciation on your house. Take the money and run. No one ever went broke doing this.

pucker-lipped, calcified, emotionless curmudgeon

Amazing! Someone PLEASE use this in their match.com profile!

#80 Smoking Man on 10.28.15 at 11:30 pm

The machine at work.

Trump is number two, Ben Carson number 1

They chucked everything at him…dident work , he’s still number one but MSM just opens its mouth says hes numbet 2. Hoping for the herd wanting to back a winner. and it may become reality. The herd is stupid.

But if he some how wins…

Its over for the machine…and long overdue might I add.

#81 Victoria on 10.28.15 at 11:34 pm

Talking to a nice gentleman who lives outside of Victoria – near the ferries. People seem to think property will keep going up near the ferries because more and more chinese are moving near the ferries ????? Okay.

#82 Ret on 10.28.15 at 11:40 pm

I’ll mention that Ontario teacher’s pension increase will be 1.3% for next year. They use the same statistical model as CPP and OAS so the number for those will be close to 1.3% in Jan./16.

So why are my property taxes, water and sewage rates going up by 2-4%?

#83 conan on 10.28.15 at 11:41 pm

Anyone find the secret scotch yet?

#84 John Prine on 10.28.15 at 11:48 pm

#3 Goldie on 10.28.15 at 6:22 pm
Ugh. Selfie Nation. Please no.

Biggest selfie in the last 10 years was Stephen Harper, an embarrassment on the world stage and to all Canadians.

#85 Observer on 10.29.15 at 12:19 am

That Trudeau selfie pic caused my iPad scrolling thumb to involuntarily twitch, causing the page to speedily lurch downward…..

#86 Nagraj on 10.29.15 at 12:20 am

Re NORA LENDERBY #183 Oct 28th, 9:11AM

Quant aux “Mesdames Trudeau” je n’en ai rien a dire (Mlle Coyne y incluse).

As for the “Harpers At Breakfast”, ha ha, Harpo is a developing tragic figure. We’re nowhere near the last Act here. (Mrs. Harper is certainly no Lady MacBeth, more like Doris Day maybe.)

I’m actually fascinated by Harper’s character, high profile Canadian villains are few and far between. How does a “Sweet Caroline” crooner end up the most publicly reviled man in the country?
Of course he believed he was doing the best he could for his country and his party.

#87 Paully on 10.29.15 at 12:31 am

I think that it is worth repeating that our PM designate, a rather wealthy individual by all account… RENTS!

#88 Tony on 10.29.15 at 12:37 am

Re: #10 NextYear on 10.28.15 at 6:49 pm

It was actually 2011 when the FED first started talking about rate hikes.

#89 Peter on 10.29.15 at 12:49 am

No crash and the bulk of people live in 416 and 604.

Even if it appreciates less than inflation you still win. Will have a house paid off, tax free, and enjoyed life in.

#90 Shrilleker on 10.29.15 at 12:54 am

#201 Bytor the Snow Dog on 10.28.15 at 8:27 pm
Did somone say “Free Will”?

“Freewill” By Rush

There are those who think that life has nothing left to chance
A host of holy horrors to direct our aimless dance

A planet of play things
We dance on the strings
Of powers we cannot perceive
‘The stars aren’t aligned
Or the gods are malign…’
Blame is better to give than receive

[Chorus:]
You can choose a ready guide in some celestial voice
If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice
You can choose from phantom fears and kindness that can kill
I will choose a path that’s clear
I will choose freewill

There are those who think
That they were dealt a losing hand
The cards were stacked against them
They weren’t born in Lotusland

All preordained
A prisoner in chains
A victim of venomous fate
Kicked in the face
You can’t pray for a place
In heaven’s unearthly estate

[Chorus]

Each of us
A cell of awareness
Imperfect and incomplete
Genetic blends
With uncertain ends
On a fortune hunt that’s far too fleet

[Chorus]”

Put headphones and listen at full blast this song on the subway while trying to imitate Geddy Lee’s voice….see if you get any strange looks from fellow passengers….

#91 Tony on 10.29.15 at 12:56 am

For anyone that day trades the stock market indexes should drop about 2 and a half to 3 percent Thursday and Friday this month. The last 2 business days of the month.

#92 Protea on 10.29.15 at 1:03 am

From #7 Real estate values in most parts of Canada will never drop, and in many areas, will only keep rising. Why?

You must have got onto the BC Bud early today ?? what an
illusionist but what can one expect from a Real Estate Agent. No wonder Realtors are so admired ??

#93 Shrilleker on 10.29.15 at 1:06 am

#22 young & foolish on 10.28.15 at 7:26 pm
“Yes I know, diversify, diversify, diversify ….”

These days, with markets so interdependent, I wonder if that strategy still works … ??

Still love your name. — Garth

Garth,

At one time this was indeed a foolish comment, but now with programmed trading and markets interlinked, it is harder to achieve geographical diversion….eg. The Tokyo Exchange open almost always follows the NYSE open from the day before, barring so act of God like a quake or tsunami

#94 Sean on 10.29.15 at 1:10 am

Question is, what is a young family supposed to do?Especially in a tight rental market like the 604? Landlords are getting extra greedy, and prices for modest town homes just keep climbing beyond sanity.

How did our generation get so screwed in a country so great?

#95 Hogwash on 10.29.15 at 1:58 am

Don’t sell.

Rents will be going up. We accept more migrants than other G7 nation. Trudeau promised to accept 25,000 Syrian refugees in next 65 days.

Word around Liberal circles is that they want a quick path to all temporary migrants already in the country. All 751,000 of them. See statscan.

What you think is going to happen to rents? And thus the price rent ratio?

Don’t sell.

#96 Hogwash on 10.29.15 at 2:02 am

@post 78 Upenuff

I bet it’s a local average family making $100,000 that bought that. ;)

That’s all I can say on this blog.

#97 Freedom First on 10.29.15 at 2:13 am

#71 common sense

Yours too.

Kidding. Thanks.

#98 Great Canadian Bubble Co. on 10.29.15 at 2:32 am

Come on Garth, who’s your source on the captial gains tax changes? Any more details?

#99 Vangrrl on 10.29.15 at 4:41 am

I’m quite enjoying Trudeau so far- the whole world is taking notice of our young, handsome, leader. Look at him in that pic!! And about to reinstate millions for ocean research. Oh yeah- he’s the MAN!!
Go Trudeau!!

#100 no agenda on 10.29.15 at 5:02 am

#80 Smoking Man on 10.28.15 at 11:30 pm
The machine at work.

Trump is number two, Ben Carson number 1

They chucked everything at him…dident work , he’s still number one but MSM just opens its mouth says hes numbet 2. Hoping for the herd wanting to back a winner. and it may become reality. The herd is stupid.

But if he some how wins…

…………

Trump is not buying advertising on the Networks. He is/ was getting free coverage. MSM… You have to pay to play.

Its over for the machine…and long overdue might I add

#101 Jay on 10.29.15 at 5:22 am

Having lived through a few recessions now, I laugh at anyone who ever says something can’t go down. Anyone who believes that probably shouldn’t be investing their own money unless it’s in GICs.

Anyone who believes in the fiction that the Conservatives weren’t going to be running constant deficits hasn’t been paying attention. Liberals may tax and spend, the Conservatives cut taxes and increase deficits because they don’t intend to pay for their tax cuts. In their quest to buy your vote, they never saw balance the budget they didn’t hate.

#102 Freeman on 10.29.15 at 6:09 am

At Alberta’s largest job fair: NOT ONE OIL AND GAS COMPANY !!! Not even a single one!

Imagine what that will do to the housing economy in Alberta if this continues for another 5 years?

“Not one oil and gas company shows up at Alberta’s biggest job fair” : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZxMojwAiZs

#103 no agenda on 10.29.15 at 6:41 am

#80 Smoking Man on 10.28.15 at 11:30 pm
The machine at work.
……..
“Trump campaign officials say he has only spent about $2 million – far less than fellow GOP candidates Dr. Ben Carson and Sen. Ted Cruz, for instance. each spent $5.5 million just through July, according to the latest FEC reports. Hillary Clinton’s campaign, meanwhile, spent $18 million in the same period; that’s nine times Trump’s entire spending to date. ”

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/donald-trump-not-spending-campaign-money

Trump is not playing by the rules.

MSM is crying as they get no money from him.

Same thing with Bernie Sanders. They do not have a chance unless they start spending.

#104 Bottoms_Up on 10.29.15 at 7:01 am

#93 Shrilleker on 10.29.15 at 1:06 am
—————————-
I think you’re missing the point of what diversification is.

#105 Bottoms_Up on 10.29.15 at 7:06 am

#82 Ret on 10.28.15 at 11:40 pm
—————————–
People are using less water these days, so they need to charge more to maintain the infrastructure.

Property taxes pay for more than teachers, including garbage pick-up, municipal transit, police, fire services, municipal debt etc.

#106 LP on 10.29.15 at 7:10 am

#83 conan on 10.28.15 at 11:41 pm
Anyone find the secret scotch yet?
********************
Oopsie…sorry, were we supposed to save some for you?

#107 HogtownIndebted on 10.29.15 at 8:24 am

#77 learningfromyou

With all due respect, for me it’s like legal robbery. IMHO we suppose to pay the service according to its qualities.

So, there is one metric to determine the “Premium” of your car insurance, and another complete different metric to receive back the service we expected.
—————————————————————-

Ah yes, car insurers, a favourite source of consumer complaints angst.

I think time is our friend on this one, learningfromyou.

Expect prototype testing to be completed and self-driving cars to be populating our roadways in about a decade.

At that point, consider who will own the liability for car crashes? Won’t it be the manufacturer? Probably, insurance will be bought as part of your purchase package from the dealer, much cheaper. And those who want to drive their own 2015 KIAs will likely have to pay a fortune in insurance to do so, given the human error factor so much greater than the robots.

Likely, a revolution in car insurance is headed our way. I would be trimming my portfolio, and not want to be investing in such companies after about 2019. And sadly, the employment prospects there will be pretty poor down the road as well.

I would guess that by about 2035, valid complaints such as yours would be history.

#108 Paul on 10.29.15 at 8:33 am

#75 Millmech on 10.28.15 at 10:50 pm

#50 Daisy May
I’m still waiting for your numbers on how the TFSA only benefits the rich as you posted.Could you please post your math/budgeting for how this is a detriment to low and middle class Canadians.Thanks
———————————————————-
Don’t hold your breath for a reply.
She thinks it’s a detriment to her personally, because she does not or is unable to participate and wants all your money to be taxed and redistributed so she can get a piece of it.

#109 fancy_pants on 10.29.15 at 8:35 am

nobody saw $45 oil coming when we were rolling along at $100 a barrel last year. But predatory pricing is impossible to predict when you are not in the monopoly.

Once the riffraff competition (frackers, tarsands) has been driven out of the market, moderate prices will return, and carefully adjusted up and down to maximize profits while keeping the competition at bay.

Maybe JT should advise his friends in the middle east that under Section 78(1)(i) of our Competition Act, such gestures are not friendly and if it doesn’t stop we will … we will.. we’ll send less holiday cheer cards this year! take that!

#110 nubbers on 10.29.15 at 8:38 am

I hope Chris follows his own instinct, does what he knows in himself is right, and resists the temptation to sell now.

That would make for one more repossession to choose from for Carmen (yesterday’s blog) in a few years time.

#111 Budd RDC on 10.29.15 at 8:57 am

Garth –

C’mon up to Yonge & Eligible one of these days and marvel at all the cranes a-hoisting and a-building. There are currently about six or seven condos in various stages of construction within a five-minute walk of my rental apartment. Am I tempted to buy? Nope. Do I see an astonishing number of twentysomethings all dreamy-eyed at the prospect (or reality) of owning a skybox? Yup. What did you write the other day? ‘Prick – meet balloon’. It’s coming. Very soon, I think.

#112 IM in C on 10.29.15 at 9:00 am

http://business.financialpost.com/business-insider/people-in-sweden-are-hiding-cash-in-their-microwaves-because-of-a-fascinating-and-terrifying-economic-experiment

This could never happen in Canada because : “it’s different here!!”

#113 IHCTD9 on 10.29.15 at 9:06 am

#19 jerry on 10.28.15 at 7:18 pm
I can’t help but notice that Justin Trudeau’ plan to allow easier access to use RRSP for housing purchases is now coinciding with the Ontario Liberals plan to expand the potential of doubling the land transfer tax obligation on those very purchases.

The meager savings in a young millenial’ RRSP would simply disappear into the Liberal cash grab.

Do government tax departments actually think strategically like that?
____________________________________________

We have a few millennials here where I work. They just love that Trudeux got in with a majority. They feel Canada got “better” just like that, and all the world will think we Canadians are cool again.

I sincerely hope that the very few children the millennial generation is producing end up being fabulously wealthy and supremely patriotic…

#114 Retired WI Boomer on 10.29.15 at 9:15 am

I get a charge out of the candidates every election cycle.

My mailbox is stuffed every day with advocacy letters asking for a donation to this democrat, or that republican, plus all the usual charity invites. Computer is as bad with the daily bleating for $3…

Did you need MY donation to fund this crap? Junk mail costs $$ an ad on Tee Vee much more so. None of these potential potentates have shown me how they will improve things. The Republicans have 1 muddled message “cut taxes” sure, fine. Right AFTER we get the DEBT reduced by half through less spending, and the herd doesn’t go apoplectic because they “lost” a benefit, we CAN discuss the reduction of taxes – right AFTER we get the rest of the DEBT paid off.

The Democrats have an me more muddled message of making the worker better off. Except they’re clueless, too..

Canadians have elected a dreamer, we shall see what is produced.

Show me a candidate, or party- with a solid spending plan that will reduce spending, thus reducing the deficits & DEBT….. that candidate – I’ll listen to.

By the way, you will not be buying my vote by advertising. You will earn it by your records elsewhere.

#115 Guy Fawkes on 10.29.15 at 9:18 am

Washed Up Lawyer
I loved the Golden Age of Wrestling. Your musings make me chuckle.

#116 Ralph Cramdown on 10.29.15 at 9:20 am

I don’t believe capital gains will be taxed more heavily.

As much as the Liberal and Conservative parties court the common person’s vote, many of the backroom powers are rich. Old money rich, capital gains rich, not so much this year’s salary rich. Monikers for the type include “limousine liberals,” “champagne socialists,” and, on the right… I can’t think of any (just “rich”? Anyone?).

The people who help propel those party leaders into power are not keen on tax changes that fall heavily on themselves. For that kind of change, you’d have to look to the NDP. I’m not currently worried. Cripes, Canadians spent most of the 20th century under Liberal government, and rich people did just fine. Why all the fearmongering?

I could be wrong.

#117 Daisy Mae on 10.29.15 at 9:39 am

“Many here gave the last PM no respect. It’s fair comment. — Garth”

***************

After 10 years of dictatorship, Harper didn’t deserve our respect.

#118 conan on 10.29.15 at 9:39 am

#106 LP on 10.29.15 at 7:10 am

Well …yeah…… I was going to come over and hang out.

I had big plans to look for the dogwood stained glass window then follow the clues to the GT Treasure( single malt I presume.)

Had a big selfie photo shoot all planned with dramatic shots of over the shoulder chases from security.

Hollywood was calling…they were interested.

#119 Craig on 10.29.15 at 9:43 am

I prefer “Two-deau” to “Trudeau II”

#120 Daisy Mae on 10.29.15 at 9:45 am

#56: “After 2 consecutive terms?”

***************

Guilty until proven innocent?

#121 Patrick on 10.29.15 at 9:49 am

#113 IHCTD9 on 10.29.15 at 9:06 am

We have a few millennials here where I work. They just love that Trudeux got in with a majority. They feel Canada got “better” just like that, and all the world will think we Canadians are cool again.
__________________________________________

We were indoctrinated growing up by our teachers. Anti-Harris, Anti-PC. Thank god they don’t vote. They’re all socialists.

#122 Ralph Cramdown on 10.29.15 at 9:55 am

#107 HogtownIndebted — “Likely, a revolution in car insurance is headed our way. I would be trimming my portfolio, and not want to be investing in such companies after about 2019.”

You think like I do. I think Buffett is a genius, and I have a fraction of my funds invested in Berkshire. But if I could ask him one question, it would be about how he’s going to get ahead of automatic cars. As far as I’m concerned, it’s probably the biggest risk to his business, ahead of weather events.

#123 Daisy Mae on 10.29.15 at 10:06 am

#75: “I’m still waiting for your numbers on how the TFSA only benefits the rich as you posted.”

***********

If 99% can’t contribute, they can’t benefit. This is not rocket science.

#124 Broke Dick on 10.29.15 at 10:13 am

#81 Victoria on 10.28.15 at 11:34 pm
Talking to a nice gentleman who lives outside of Victoria – near the ferries. People seem to think property will keep going up near the ferries because more and more chinese are moving near the ferries ????? Okay.
================================

In China it is considered good luck if you live close to a fairy.

#125 bdy sktrn on 10.29.15 at 10:13 am

Expect prototype testing to be completed and self-driving cars to be populating our roadways in about a decade.

At that point, consider who will own the liability for car crashes? Won’t it be the manufacturer?
——————————
may be a bit longer.

scenario: which way does the car swerve when a baby stroller +mom step out in front at the last second, a bus is approaching in the opposite lane and a crowd is standing on the sidewalk

#126 Peter on 10.29.15 at 10:21 am

#117 Daisy Mae

“Many here gave the last PM no respect. It’s fair comment. — Garth”

***************

After 10 years of dictatorship, Harper didn’t deserve our respect.
———–
Get a grip with that silly hyperbole, will you? That is truly insulting for people who have lived under a true dictatorship.

#127 paul on 10.29.15 at 10:29 am

#117 Daisy Mae on 10.29.15 at 9:39 am

“Many here gave the last PM no respect. It’s fair comment. — Garth”

***************
After 10 years of dictatorship, Harper didn’t deserve our respect.
———————————————————-
Just maybe it shouldn’t read ‘our respect’ and read your respect as usual low information people think everyone believes what they do!

#128 common sense on 10.29.15 at 10:32 am

#97 Freedom First

Wow…Give a person a sincere comment and you still can find a way to be a dick and slap someone down.

Why? Is it pleasure you get out of slighting someone? A feeling of superiority? Just what is your point?

How hard to is it to just ignore the compliment and say nothing or just say something either positive or neutral?

#129 Tony on 10.29.15 at 10:39 am

On any near term strength in the stock market indexes over the next 30 minutes to an hour get short today and tomorrow, lock stock and barrel… bet the farm on it.

#130 cramar on 10.29.15 at 10:43 am

#87 Paully on 10.29.15 at 12:31 am
I think that it is worth repeating that our PM designate, a rather wealthy individual by all account… RENTS!

——————

If so, then maybe this fellow has more financial acumen than the other fellow who re-mortgaged his house 11x.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

99 Vangrrl on 10.29.15 at 4:41 am
I’m quite enjoying Trudeau so far- the whole world is taking notice of our young, handsome, leader. Look at him in that pic!! And about to reinstate millions for ocean research. Oh yeah- he’s the MAN!!
Go Trudeau!!

———-

Welcome to Trudeaumania 2.0!

To those who already think that we should quickly head to the U.S. since he will surely destroy our country, let’s wait for a couple of years to evaluate his track record.

To those who think already think he is the great salvation for this country, please compare to the euphoria when Obama was first elected. I still can picture that black woman from the deep south who was dancing around singing that “Obama was going to pay off her mortgage!”

I’d like to ask her today, “How did that work out for you?”

#131 AB Boxster on 10.29.15 at 10:44 am

Interesting article on Sweden.

Bank account rates now negative. (-.35% today)
Meaning, if you have cash in your account, the bank can charge you for saving it.
Not actually do so yet, but there is little to sto them if they decide to.

Take your cash and run?
Well, problem is that Sweden is almost cashless and have almost eliminated cash.
So, guess what?
You can’t take your cash out.

Good case for gold.
Not as an investment, but as a capital preservation vehicle.

The global financial system is a mess.

http://business.financialpost.com/business-insider/people-in-sweden-are-hiding-cash-in-their-microwaves-because-of-a-fascinating-and-terrifying-economic-experiment

#132 MF on 10.29.15 at 10:45 am

#50 Daisy Mae on 10.28.15 at 8:40 pm

All we heard from you during the entire election of 4 months or so was how evil Harper was. None stop daily name calling and personal attacks backed up by thin political arguments.

All I heard on my FB mini feed during election night was the pot smoking/underemployed/band wagon voter/sore loser for the last 8 years crowd calling Harper as “racist, fascist, dictator, etc. “.

Throw stones in glass houses and….

#108 Paul on 10.29.15 at 8:33 am

Exactly. Don’t hold your breath.

#117 Daisy Mae on 10.29.15 at 9:39 am

Lol here it is again:

“After 10 years of dictatorship, Harper didn’t deserve our respect.”

You don’t like Harper we get it. But go live in North Korea if you want to see a real dictatorship.

MF

#133 AB Boxster on 10.29.15 at 10:47 am

@120 Daisy Mae
———————-

Daisy,
It seems you may have PTSD.
(Pathetic Trudeau Sappiness Disorder)
Or perhaps HDS
Harper Derangement Syndrome.

Simple cure.
Watch or listen to 5 minutes of CBC radio or TV and you will soon violently retch, thus purging yourself of all foul thoughts.

#134 MF on 10.29.15 at 10:54 am

#113 IHCTD9 on 10.29.15 at 9:06 am

Lol yeah my generation is so dumb. My place of employment is owned by a rich 1%er. He treats us all fairly and is quite successful. Yet a lot of we millennials voted for the kid because of the evil rich (who signs their pay cheques).

What I saw was the millennials that voted for the kid were usually:

1) still in school and were part timers being indoctrinated in the world of academia
2) parents who work for government in some form and depend on tax payer money to survive
3) smoked marijuana/were pot heads
4) were amongst the laziest of workers

There were a lot of us voted Con (usually older/harder working) but we were overshadowed by these types.

#70 Freedom First on 10.28.15 at 10:14 pm

Beautiful post here that should be read by everyone. Ignore the haters Freedom First your message is correct.

MF

#135 MF on 10.29.15 at 10:58 am

#29 MSM-Free Zone on 10.28.15 at 7:48 pm

Exactly. That’s why the ultimate aspiration here is to work for government, and not start your own business.

Sky high real estate (I live in the GTA) has just made it even worse for businesses.

MF

#136 MF on 10.29.15 at 11:06 am

#84 John Prine on 10.28.15 at 11:48 pm

Uh no.

My girlfriend is a new immigrant. She (and everyone of her friends) had 2 countries as their ultimate destination, Canada and the US. The families are all pushing hard to come here too.

By the way she’s grateful to Harper and would have voted for him (if she could).

Embarrassment on the world stage? For standing up to the corrupt leaders of the world? I don’t think so. Watch as the kid tries to Neville Chamberlain everyone he can.. and subsequently gets walked all over.

MF

#137 M_S on 10.29.15 at 11:09 am

“If you think the second Monday night in October changed nothing, you had stars in your eyes. This is now selfie nation. And it’s not about you.”

Garth,
Why being negative now? Election is a done deal and the Liberals are here to stay for the next 4 years

#138 liquidincalgary on 10.29.15 at 11:48 am

Paully on 10.29.15 at 12:31 am

I think that it is worth repeating that our PM designate, a rather wealthy individual by all account… RENTS!

============================================

not any more…he now has the ultimate in Public Housing

#139 liquidincalgary on 10.29.15 at 11:57 am

fancy_pants on 10.29.15 at 8:35 am

nobody saw $45 oil coming when we were rolling along at $100 a barrel last year. But predatory pricing is impossible to predict when you are not in the monopoly.

Once the riffraff competition (frackers, tarsands) has been driven out of the market, moderate prices will return, and carefully adjusted up and down to maximize profits while keeping the competition at bay.

=============================================

a more appropriate indicator of oil prices may be the amount of US reserves…now at an 85 year high ! (not a typo)

#140 fancy_pants on 10.29.15 at 11:58 am

77 learningfromyou on 10.28.15 at 11:06 pm

unfortunately the car insurance industry is riddled with fraud. And the financial burden falls to the honest folk. Toronto is one of the country’s worst geographical offending areas. Ontario auto insurance rates are the highest in Canada. but of course no coincidence lots of immigration there. that would be poopoo and politically incorrect to think that way. sort of like bombing ISIS, that is just naughty. there is love for everyone unless you are mainstream. that’s how this world works. someone sins, someone else pays for it.

#141 bdy sktrn on 10.29.15 at 12:03 pm

#123 Daisy Mae on 10.29.15 at 10:06 am

If 99% can’t contribute, they can’t benefit. This is not rocket science.
———————————-
of course they can’t , dont ya know drake concert tickets are 500/pair and new iphones are not cheap!!!

#142 Millmech on 10.29.15 at 12:07 pm

Daisy May
Most of the 99% are avoiding the rrsp realizing what a tax trap it is and are now directing their resources to the TFSA(70% of Canadians do not want TFSA reduced).All the people in my income bracket are putting in money into TFSA first and most max it out.In reality the RRSP benefits the 1% more than the TFSA,so you should be pushing for the RRSP to be eliminated first.As for Harper being a dictator I don’t get that viewpoint because if he was he would still be in power as dictators never lose elections ie Putin

#143 Ralph Cramdown on 10.29.15 at 12:08 pm

#125 bdy sktrn — “scenario: which way does the car swerve when a baby stroller +mom step out in front at the last second, a bus is approaching in the opposite lane and a crowd is standing on the sidewalk”

The cheapest way, of course. Picture a world where human life values, likely injuries and property damage can be estimated in a few tenths of a second before the collision, and the vehicles can act accordingly. I can imagine the insurance companies agreeing on how to apportion the damages and costs even before the collision occurs.

But the real benefit is that far fewer collisions will occur. Fretting about how to handle them is focusing on the trees to the detriment of the forest.

Bonus question: Given that everything will be captured on camera, is the mother or her insurance willing to compensate the owners of the car and the bus if the car hits the bus to avoid the mother, having evidence that the incident was her fault?

#144 ALBERTASTROPHE on 10.29.15 at 12:30 pm

A lot of the news that seems off the horizon should be looked at very closely by Albertans and those who work there or draw off the oil economy. There is ever more evidence that there will be no oil recovery of any meaningful scope in Canada.

The IMF now predicts only $60 oil by 2020 and – wait for it – a Saudi Arabia bankruptcy.

http://www.worldfinance.com/home/imf-predicts-saudi-arabia-will-become-bankrupt-shortly

If even the Saudis will be in such trouble, what on earth will protect Fort McMurray McMansions from crumbling by 50%, probably more?

To my fellow Albertans, let me say once again, if you might need to move and sell your shack in the near future, consider doing it right now. Take what you can get, and get liquid. There is no light in this tunnel as far as the eye can see.

#145 Mike in Edm on 10.29.15 at 12:32 pm

We continue to hear about the steady flow of layoffs in Calgary and Alberta, but I haven’t heard an update as to the total O&G layoffs since the summer. MSM still reports the total at 35k or 36k. It MUST be a lot higher than that by now. Anyone have any details?

#146 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 10.29.15 at 12:33 pm

#73 Smoking Man on 10.28.15 at 10:48 pm
Humanity.
Wierd Energy force occupying meat and bones.
Made of Star Dust.
Free ride on a plant circling a ball of fire.
Which circles a black hole.
Which is slowly being drawn to other black holes.
Lord, why didn’t you make me a black hole.
Ok dogs save the ass hole jokes I beat you to them. In my mind anyway.
If I can shake this fever, year end done.
Senica tomorrow till Saturday… Good posts coming.
____________________________________________
Ok Smoking Man go get loaded and then try to figure this one out. Now don’t attempt to think about it until your fifth glass of vino. You enter near a powerful gravitational field that is enormous, much like the ones produced by a spinning black hole. The massive gravitational field greatly warps the fabric of existence so that space-time loops back on itself. This creates a CTC “closed time-like curve,” a loop that could be traversed to travel back in time. So if you kill your grandfather what happens to you?

#147 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 10.29.15 at 12:35 pm

#136 MF on 10.29.15 at 11:06 am

#84 John Prine on 10.28.15 at 11:48 pm

Uh no.

My girlfriend is a new immigrant. She (and everyone of her friends) had 2 countries as their ultimate destination, Canada and the US. The families are all pushing hard to come here too.

By the way she’s grateful to Harper and would have voted for him (if she could).

Embarrassment on the world stage? For standing up to the corrupt leaders of the world? I don’t think so. Watch as the kid tries to Neville Chamberlain everyone he can.. and subsequently gets walked all over.

MF
____________________________________________
Can hardly wait to see who J T’s Hitler is! Vlad?

#148 YVROptimist on 10.29.15 at 12:39 pm

I have a 3-bedroom rental property in Whistler, where the market has stagnated for the last few years. I’m one of those pigs, waiting to be slaughtered. The investment is a long-term one, and I haven’t seen a stellar return, but it’s not bad, even if I do an honest cap rate analysis (2.8% ish)

However, one thing I did want to bring up which hasn’t been noted here is the tremendous pressure that businesses like AirBnb and VRBO put on rental stock, especially in places like Whistler and Vancouver. If a large portion of the traditional long-term rentals are now short-term illegal ‘hotel rooms’ the upward pressure on rents is noteworthy. Why rent to a bunch of ski bums (which includes my renters, but they pay in full and on time every month – thanks guys) for $2000 a month when you can get $400 a night for the place in the winter? $800 a night over Christmas?

I imagine Toronto is the same.

#149 BS on 10.29.15 at 12:41 pm

Vangrrl: I’m quite enjoying Trudeau so far- the whole world is taking notice of our young, handsome, leader. Look at him in that pic!! And about to reinstate millions for ocean research. Oh yeah- he’s the MAN!!
Go Trudeau!!

I find it interesting how a woman qualifies some to be prime minister. Young, handsome and takes a good selfie? People wonder why there are not more women in executive positions.

#150 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 10.29.15 at 12:43 pm

#1 MSM-Free Zone on 10.28.15 at 6:20 pm
“kid PM” ?
When does a 43-year-old graduate from being “kid” to “old stock”?
Inquiring minds need to know….
_____________________________________________
When he gets his tattoos lased off, stops trying to play boxer, and stops strip teasing us (urrrggghhh), stops the selfie photo ops, learns that a Canadian is a Canadian is a Canadian, when you’ve earned the privilege of being a Canadian by waiting your turn to come here in due process, hard , honest work and not expecting this to be a welfare state where we dole out dollars to support you while you get your act together. Oh yes and not come here to terrorize those of us that truly love this fine country.

#151 lee on 10.29.15 at 12:56 pm

I notice a lot of SFHs in Toronto listed for $450,000 to $550,000? Not great homes, but often decent areas. What gives? Are agents just trying to suck people into a bid? I even saw one decent one listed for $385,000??? What’s up?

#152 MF on 10.29.15 at 12:57 pm

#117 Daisy Mae on 10.29.15 at 9:39 am

#132 MF

Lol here it is again:

“After 10 years of dictatorship, Harper didn’t deserve our respect.”

You don’t like Harper we get it. But go live in North Korea if you want to see a real dictatorship.

#126 Peter on 10.29.15 at 10:21 am

“Get a grip with that silly hyperbole, will you? That is truly insulting for people who have lived under a true dictatorship.”

#127 paul on 10.29.15 at 10:29 am

“Just maybe it shouldn’t read ‘our respect’ and read your respect as usual low information people think everyone believes what they do!”

#133 AB Boxster on 10.29.15 at 10:47 am

“Daisy,
It seems you may have PTSD.
(Pathetic Trudeau Sappiness Disorder)
Or perhaps HDS
Harper Derangement Syndrome.”

Sounds like a case of HDS to me too.

It doesn’t matter. This poster has been called out on this repeatedly in the past and continues to just ignore and post his/her hatred of Harper drivel. Maybe he/she is paid for by the Liberal party of Canada to troll these boards?

Scary thing is he/she is an example of what our entire country just did: blamed all their problems of the last 8 years on the government.

It’s Harper’s fault my pants don’t fit!
It’s Harper’s fault my remote ran out of batteries
etc.

Daisy, listen to AB Boxster’s cure. It might help.

MF

#153 Cici on 10.29.15 at 12:58 pm

The pointy heads at CMHC are now definitely following the Greaterfool blog:

Canadian housing market overvalued in most cities, CMHC warns
Strong evidence of overheating in Toronto, Montreal and Quebec City, while overbuilding is biggest in Winnipeg, Saskatoon, Regina, and Moncton

http://www.financialpost.com/index.html

#154 Investorz on 10.29.15 at 12:58 pm

This is new, CMHC sounding worried:

“Inventory management is therefore necessary to make sure that these condominium units under construction do not remain unsold upon completion,” said CMHC.

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/mortgages-real-estate/cmhc-warns-that-canadian-housing-market-is-overvalued-in-most-cities

#155 S.Bby on 10.29.15 at 1:07 pm

#52 Bdy Skytrn

Wow, is that what you really think?
You read all the great financial advice offered on this blog and then spew out that crap? Good grief.

#156 Dual Citizen In Canada on 10.29.15 at 1:15 pm

#123 Daisy Mae on 10.29.15 at 10:06 am
If 99% can’t contribute, they can’t benefit. This is not rocket science.

Can’t or won’t? As I see it, many people are living beyond their means and then have an excuse not to contribute. Downsize that house, car, make lunch rather than buy lunch, you don’t need that 60″ TV just because your neighbor or friends have one, etc.
So keeping up with the Jones’ is the excuse? You can’t want it all then complain that only the rich can contribute. Sheesh….

#157 Nora Lenderby on 10.29.15 at 1:32 pm

#99 Vangrrl on 10.29.15 at 4:41 am
I’m quite enjoying Trudeau so far- the whole world is taking notice of our young, handsome, leader. Look at him in that pic!! And about to reinstate millions for ocean research. Oh yeah- he’s the MAN!!
Go Trudeau!!

Sigh…I think you’re being naughty, trying to stir up the irascible old fogies on this forum. Watch out for flying teeth, prescription spectacles, sticks, zimmer frames… :-)

Some ocean research did continue under our late, great, dictator. For example (presumably not due to Trudeaumania) cod are coming back in increasing numbers:

http://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/10.1139/cjfas-2015-0346#.VjIVhberTqA

#158 Nora Lenderby on 10.29.15 at 1:34 pm

#77 learningfromyou on 10.28.15 at 11:06 pm
I do not live in Ontario where one day people will ride horses because of the insurance…prices…

lol…and we’ll have mandatory helmets for riders and license plates for the horse, natch.

#159 retired WI Boomer on 10.29.15 at 1:39 pm

#77 & #108

Auto Insurance 101

Without knowing all the rules on Canadian Auto Insurance..let me ask a question, and then ask what YOU expect from Auto Insurance.

I live in a place that uses “comparative negligence” to asses fault. Iv you and the other party were each 50% at fault nobody collects from the other party. Say you hit the car in front of you in the rear – it’s your fault 100% unless you can show their brake lights weren’t working, they were driving at night with no lights etc.

2nd Point…

Your friend was driving a 2000 model car. That is 15 years old, and worth buttress in terms of “value” Sure, he might be able to sell the car (prior to wreck) for a fair price assuming it still has an underside not eaten by salt after 15 years, and assuming it doesn’t have 350,000 km on the odometer. Still it has nearly NO value in car terms.
IF the other party’s insurer is offering him $900 for the damage, and HE gets to keep the car, that might sound fair to me.

People should consider dropping collision and comp coverages when their car is paid for, or when the beast reaches about 6-8 years old. After that, it is easier to “self-insure’ (by saving the insurance premium in a cash fund) than give it to an insurance company. This has worked for me. Last crash that was my fault over 30 years ago – and the other party was uninsured! go figure!

My state did not then require insurance, but you did have to be legally responsible for any damage that was deemed ‘your fault.’ Now, proof of insurance is required.

RB

#160 jess on 10.29.15 at 1:41 pm

overvaluation? cmhc warns

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC) report described one of three epidemics of accounting control fraud that drove the financial crisis in these terms.

“Some real estate appraisers had also been expressing concerns for years. From 2000 to 2007, a coalition of appraisal organizations circulated and ultimately delivered to Washington officials a public petition; signed by 11,000 appraisers and including the name and address of each, it charged that lenders were pressuring appraisers to place artificially high prices on properties. According to the petition, lenders were ‘blacklisting honest appraisers’ and instead assigning business only to appraisers who would hit the desired price targets” [FCIC 2011: 18].

The FCIC Report then documents scale of this epidemic of loan origination fraud.

The Wall Street Journal Still Refuses to Grasp Accounting Control Fraud via Appraisal Fraud
Posted on December 2, 2014 by William Black | 7 Comments

By William K. Black
Kansas City, MO: December 2, 2014

The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC) report described one of three epidemics of accounting control fraud that drove the financial crisis in these terms.

“Some real estate appraisers had also been expressing concerns for years. From 2000 to 2007, a coalition of appraisal organizations circulated and ultimately delivered to Washington officials a public petition; signed by 11,000 appraisers and including the name and address of each, it charged that lenders were pressuring appraisers to place artificially high prices on properties. According to the petition, lenders were ‘blacklisting honest appraisers’ and instead assigning business only to appraisers who would hit the desired price targets” [FCIC 2011: 18].

The FCIC Report then documents scale of this epidemic of loan origination fraud.

“One 2003 survey found that 55% of the appraisers had felt pressed to inflate the value of homes; by 2006, this had climbed to 90%. The pressure came most frequently from the mortgage brokers, but appraisers reported it from real estate agents, lenders, and in many cases borrowers themselves. Most often, refusal to raise the appraisal meant losing the client” [FCIC 2011: 91].

http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2014/12/wall-street-journal-still-refuses-grasp-accounting-control-fraud-via-appraisal-fraud.html

#161 Julia on 10.29.15 at 1:43 pm

#105 Bottoms_up
“People are using less water these days, so they need to charge more to maintain the infrastructure.”

And people are using less water thanks to incentives like free rain barrels, grants for low flow toilets and front loading washing machines etc…
The City of Toronto promoted these using the angle that by saving water consumers would save money. Then they raise the rates to compensate for lost revenues…

#162 Nora Lenderby on 10.29.15 at 1:45 pm

#139 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 10.29.15 at 12:43 pm
#1 MSM-Free Zone on 10.28.15 at 6:20 pm
When does a 43-year-old graduate from being “kid” to “old stock”?

– …Oh yes and not come here to terrorize those of us that truly love this fine country.

I admit it. He’s a babe-magnet and is patently terrorizing grumpy old geezers. There oughta be a law…

:-)

#163 Julia on 10.29.15 at 1:45 pm

#123 Daisy Mae
Of that 99% that you say “can’t” contribute, how many really can’t vs how many make choices other than contributing?

#164 Paul on 10.29.15 at 1:46 pm

#145 Dual Citizen In Canada on 10.29.15 at 1:15 pm

#123 Daisy Mae on 10.29.15 at 10:06 am
If 99% can’t contribute, they can’t benefit. This is not rocket science.

Can’t or won’t? As I see it, many people are living beyond their means and then have an excuse not to contribute. Downsize that house, car, make lunch rather than buy lunch, you don’t need that 60″ TV just because your neighbor or friends have one, etc.
So keeping up with the Jones’ is the excuse? You can’t want it all then complain that only the rich can contribute. Sheesh….
———————————————————-
You don’t get it it’s not about the 1% or the 99% it’s about her and her situation woe is me!

#165 bdy sktrn on 10.29.15 at 1:58 pm

#144 S.Bby on 10.29.15 at 1:07 pm
#52 Bdy Skytrn

Wow, is that what you really think?
——————
you weren’t here but over the years i have clearly said buy east van lots at 600-700k again at 8, again at 9, etc.
(when everybody else said sell)
going rate is pushing 1.4M.

Urban 416/604 land IS different. Constant and relentless reduction in supply with demand swelling daily.
Outside of ‘kingdom416’ i agree with our host sell it.

the house will double faster than the sp500 or the tsx.

#166 fancy_pants on 10.29.15 at 2:01 pm

Twodeau a babe magnet?
easy on the sales pitch, you are frightening the children

#167 bdy sktrn on 10.29.15 at 2:06 pm

———————————————————-
You don’t get it it’s not about the 1% or the 99% it’s about her and her situation woe is Daisy!
—————————-
i have a friend who seems to love yanking the tfsa from the ‘rich’ because the 99% can’t afford it.

and boy does he looove to dine out/shop for clothes 10x what i pay/see pricey shows/drive a shiny new car

knows he will never save a cent so nail those that do.

#168 Bottoms_Up on 10.29.15 at 2:25 pm

#131 AB Boxster on 10.29.15 at 10:44 am
——————————-
Well my Canadian bank charges me $11 monthly to have an account, and considering my small sums in there works out to a negative interest rate of about -10%

#169 Muddleclass on 10.29.15 at 2:45 pm

As a retired old fart, I am not rich nor do I consider myself middleclass. My TFSA is maxed out as its one of the few ways possible to avoid earned investment returns being taxed and clawed back in income taxes. For Trudeau to make decreasing the TFSA a campaign promise is pandering to the extreme. A multi millionaire Prime Minister who inherited a portion his fathers millions says he intends to help the middle class, part of which is to reduce the TFSA. A vote in favor of this shows the level of financial resolve of the 39% of 65% of 35 million voters ( about 9 million RED voters).
Why, because they can’t afford to use the TFSA? Priorities , $5 Latte’s, bi annual warm place vacations, nail spas, nannies, granite countertops, $50 haircuts,$200 a month cable bill, $300 a month cell bill ,new import or two in the driveway , regular job won’t cut it unless you have a large chunk of inheritance from good old Dad!

#170 Smoking Man on 10.29.15 at 2:48 pm

#146 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 10.29.15 at 12:33 pm
#73 Smoking Man on 10.28.15 at 10:48 pm
Humanity.
Wierd Energy force occupying meat and bones.
Made of Star Dust.
Free ride on a plant circling a ball of fire.
Which circles a black hole.
Which is slowly being drawn to other black holes.
Lord, why didn’t you make me a black hole.
Ok dogs save the ass hole jokes I beat you to them. In my mind anyway.
If I can shake this fever, year end done.
Senica tomorrow till Saturday… Good posts coming.
____________________________________________
Ok Smoking Man go get loaded and then try to figure this one out. Now don’t attempt to think about it until your fifth glass of vino. You enter near a powerful gravitational field that is enormous, much like the ones produced by a spinning black hole. The massive gravitational field greatly warps the fabric of existence so that space-time loops back on itself. This creates a CTC “closed time-like curve,” a loop that could be traversed to travel back in time. So if you kill your grandfather what happens to you?

Reverse Time Travel Impossible, Change one tiny atom 1000 years ago, world will be very different, the traveler would not be born.

Now forward time travel absolutely doable

#171 Daisy Mae on 10.29.15 at 2:52 pm

#163/#164: Who cares? Lighten up. :-)

#172 Paul on 10.29.15 at 2:59 pm

#161 Julia on 10.29.15 at 1:43 pm

#105 Bottoms_up
“People are using less water these days, so they need to charge more to maintain the infrastructure.”

And people are using less water thanks to incentives like free rain barrels, grants for low flow toilets and front loading washing machines etc…
The City of Toronto promoted these using the angle that by saving water consumers would save money. Then they raise the rates to compensate for lost revenues…———————————————-

Same as ‘smart hydro meters’ = dumb populace GRIND GRIND GRIND! It’s a no Wynne situation!

#173 vancouver poorboy on 10.29.15 at 3:06 pm

Federal audit takes aim at money-laundering real estate transactions in Vancouver area
http://www.theprovince.com/business/Federal+audit+takes+money+laundering+real+estate+transactions+Vancouver+area/11311753/story.html

#174 jess on 10.29.15 at 3:09 pm

Keynote Address at the Managed Fund Association: “Five Years On: Regulation of Private Fund Advisers After Dodd-Frank”

Chair Mary Jo White

MFA Outlook 2015 Conference, New York, New York

Oct. 16, 2015

…”
On completing their presence exam initiative last year, our examiners identified several areas where cracks in this bulwark were found.

-some hedge fund advisers may have used marketing materials that included back-tested performance numbers, portable performance numbers, and benchmark comparisons without key disclosures.

– some hedge fund advisers may not be adequately disclosing conflicts related to advisers’ proprietary funds and the personal accounts of their portfolio managers. e.g. advisers allocating profitable trades and investment opportunities to proprietary funds rather than client accounts in contravention of existing policies and procedures.

In exams of private equity advisers, examiners also observed instances of conflicts involving fees and expenses. For example, staff was concerned that some advisers may have been improperly shifting expenses away from the adviser and to the funds or portfolio companies by, for example, charging a fund for the salaries of the adviser’s employees or hiring the adviser’s former employees as “consultants” paid by the funds. Examiners also continue to observe advisers collecting millions of dollars in accelerated monitoring fees without disclosing the practice.

Our fee and expense observations go beyond private equity advisers. Our Private Funds Unit in OCIE is completing a review of private fund real estate advisers, many of which may be hiring related parties. Staff is concerned that disclosure about these arrangements may be non-existent or potentially misleading, particularly with regard to whether or not the related parties charge market rates.

In addition to these exam findings, I urge you to focus on a number of recent, important enforcement actions by the Commission against private fund advisers. Many of these actions also center on disclosure and conflicts of interest, including advisers misallocating expenses to funds;[21] failing to disclose loans from clients;[22] using funds to pay their operating expenses without authorization and disclosure;[23] and failing to disclose fees and discounts from service providers.[24]

#175 Lude Jude on 10.29.15 at 3:25 pm

Is bombardier dead? Is smoking man’s stock pick going to zero?

#176 MF on 10.29.15 at 3:29 pm

#147 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 10.29.15 at 12:35 pm

Lol yeah probably Vlad and it will most likely be over our arctic land mass.

I can see it now. The kid getting off the plane waving a paper in his hand. Reporters snapping photos all around: “I spoke to Vlad. He just wants a tiny sliver of land up there, and then he will go away.”

It will be interesting to see what JT does when there are geopolitical issues that arise around the world. TBH, he sounds like a good guy, but I think the reality of being on the world stage as a western leader will sink in quickly.

MF

#177 young & foolish on 10.29.15 at 3:35 pm

“‘Prick – meet balloon’. It’s coming. Very soon, I think.”

Yup, but don’t worry, the economy will not be affected.

#178 MF on 10.29.15 at 3:49 pm

#150 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 10.29.15 at 12:43 pm

Amen. Repeated for everyone to see.

“When he gets his tattoos lased off, stops trying to play boxer, and stops strip teasing us (urrrggghhh), stops the selfie photo ops, learns that a Canadian is a Canadian is a Canadian, when you’ve earned the privilege of being a Canadian by waiting your turn to come here in due process, hard , honest work and not expecting this to be a welfare state where we dole out dollars to support you while you get your act together. Oh yes and not come here to terrorize those of us that truly love this fine country.”

MF

#179 Zinc on 10.29.15 at 3:55 pm

“the second Monday night in October” was Thanksgiving…

#180 young & foolish on 10.29.15 at 4:08 pm

What is so different about current first world economies?

A near total financialization has taken place. Money begets money. Who wants to invest in risky and expensive R&D to develop new products when you can just buy your competition? Just the whiff of reduced earnings sends a stock tumbling these days. The “main street” economies are in the grips of financial markets. The moat between that haves and have-nots is increasingly getting wider.

It’s not your daddy’s economy anymore … but it’s starting to look a lot like your grandpa’s.

#181 Freedom First on 10.29.15 at 4:12 pm

Sorry. I did not mean to insult you.

I meant it as a sincere thank you.

#182 Freedom First on 10.29.15 at 4:13 pm

181 Freedom First

oops, sorry, I forgot to write your handle common sense.

#183 Broke Dick on 10.29.15 at 4:14 pm

#170 Smoking Man on 10.29.15 at 2:48 pm

Reverse Time Travel Impossible, Change one tiny atom 1000 years ago, world will be very different, the traveler would not be born.
——————————————————————
So true. I saw it on The Simpsons Halloween Special once.
Every time Homer went back in time something drastically changed in the present.

#184 Bottoms_Up on 10.29.15 at 4:34 pm

#149 BS on 10.29.15 at 12:41 pm
——————————————–
Our next PM takes selfies (thus identifying with millions of younger Canadians), but our outgoing PM shakes the hand of his middle school child when he drops her off at school, and that is not considered weird, or an act unbecoming of a PM?

Come on people! Garth, you of all people have pointed out how futile ad hominem attacks are. Who cares if our PM takes efforts to identify with the masses?

Actually, I care. I think it makes him look good.

Signed, a mid-30’s yr old.

#185 bdy sktn on 10.29.15 at 4:34 pm

 ….said CMHC.

In Vancouver, the Crown corporation says it is only now detecting ”moderate evidence of overvaluation” and adds that overheating, acceleration in house prices and overbuilding is not a concern for that market
Low risk of correction.
_______
Even chmc likes 604

#186 HD on 10.29.15 at 4:36 pm

#143 Ralph Cramdown on 10.29.15 at 12:08 pm
#125 bdy sktrn

http://www.alanwinfield.blogspot.co.uk/2014/08/on-internal-models-part-2-ethical-robot.html

http://arxiv.org/abs/1510.03346

Just to add to the conversation.

Best,

HD

#187 Bottoms_Up on 10.29.15 at 4:42 pm

#178 MF on 10.29.15 at 3:49 pm
——————————————
Again, nice Ad Hominem attack.

You are attacking the man.

Try attacking the policies. Then we can have an intelligent discussion.

#188 rainclouds on 10.29.15 at 5:16 pm

185 BSKYTRN
….said CMHC.

What they didn’t mention, aside from the obvious conflict

Price to income
Price to rent

Think I will stick with Economist

#189 Bottoms_Up on 10.29.15 at 5:24 pm

http://www.ottawasun.com/2015/10/28/beware-of-trudeaus-payroll-tax

Who writes these things? They suggest the average person is better off investing their own money than a board of profesionals overseeing billions of dollars of investments.

Sure, a 1%’er may have access to similar investment advice, but your average Canadian does not.

Also, when the chickens come home to roost, the piper needs to be paid. We either plan now to ensure a better future for our retirees or we pay the consequences later. Seems like a short term pain for long term gain type scenario to me.

#190 Mf on 10.29.15 at 5:32 pm

#187 Bottoms_Up on 10.29.15 at 4:42 pm

You mean how Daisy and every other JT supporter repeatedly called Harper a dictator, fascist?

You missed the whole thread.

Doesn’t matter.

Disagree with:

The Kid’s stance on:

Tfsa
Income splitting
Marijuana legalization
Increased spending and deficits
Stance on Convicted terrorists in Canada
Syrian refugees
Taxes on our most successful

Mf

#191 triplenet on 10.29.15 at 6:35 pm

#148 YVROptimist
If you are trying to value your ‘investment’ sfd in Whistler with a 2.8%-ish OCR – you should write a book……or read one.
Real estate should always produce a return ‘of and on’ the investment. Unless you REALLY know what you’re doing.
I suspect you don’t. Your cap rate is showing a return on land value only….which means – what are you doing??

#192 Bottoms_Up on 10.29.15 at 7:02 pm

Tfsa-is a mechanism to avoid taxation on capital gains. Capital gains are largely the realm of the wealthy.

Income splitting-this can benefit many needy families, but makes no sense to hand extra tax breaks ti wealthy families. I think they could keep this, but scale back the tax break for wealthier families.

Marijuana legalization-why should someone’s life be ruined by a criminal charge for possessing a small amount of a naturally occuring plant, that is actually healthier to smoke than tobacco, a legal substance?

Increased spending and deficits-Recent relevations have shown that austerity does not work in complex economies, and increased spending can have synergistic benefits.

Stance on Convicted terrorists in Canada–I would think all Canadians agree these people should be punished

Syrian refugees-millions of people displaced, with nothing left to lose but to walk thousands of miles to a better life. Why wouldn’t we try to help as many as we can as fast as possible?

Taxes on our most successful-the wealthy have never before in history been taxed so low. We are at record inequality. The middle class has record debt, and the poor has mo money. The rich are the only ones left. Really people need millions in stock options and crafty ways to avoid paying their fair share?

#193 Steve on 10.30.15 at 12:37 am

How boomer, regarding a forty year old man as a child. As I recall, the boomers would be enraged at such a label in their own tender forties. The genius of vanity is turning something like exceptionally advanced age into a podium from which to urinate scorn upon others. Soon this revolting analogy will be a literal daily ordeal foisted upon nurses nation wide as the blow and show generation enters the “Grand Decline”. Just think of the sing alongs by the Ol’ piano in the activity room. The grizzled renditions of “born to be wild” croaked out by the aged sheep of Woodstock. Take your used up easy riding culture and shove it in your holes you twisted old goats.

You may have noticed I poke all generations equally. Especially the humourless one, that thinks it matters most. Your post is why. — Garth