Pooched

JAYS modified

When people are in the midst of a boom, they believe it’ll last forever. When things tank, they think everything will go to zero. As always, fear and greed motivate us. At least until we max our lines of credit.

Mike’s in the RV business. In fact, it’s his professional job to track things. “This,” he says, pointing to the most recent sales stats he has assembled, “is a harbinger,” . Mike also (correctly) points out almost nobody in this country buys a motorhome to actually live in, replacing a house. We just buy them to drive around for three weeks a year and eat up driveway space for the other forty-nine. In other words, they’re toys. Unlike Harleys, in contrast, which are necessities.

So when Canadian motorhome registrations tumble 29% in a single month and are down 27.4% for the year, it’s probably telling us something. Mike reports sales are awful (negative 31%) for the big suckers that look like party buses, and off almost 27% for the small units which are built on van chassis.

The takeaway here is simple. Lots of people are out of money. Wages haven’t increased for years, and yet debt is swelling at an annual rate of 5%, with many households already pooched. Lax lending standards have allowed sales of big-ticket items like bloated buses with granite countertops to continue, and nowhere has that been more evident than with residential real estate.

Ex-realtor and housing consultant Ross Kay seems to be one of the only people charting this. And his latest findings are scary. Walking dead scary. He is alleging that millions of loans have been made in Canada which are considered normal, but are actually sub-prime. This sounds eerily like what happened prior to the US housing debacle, in which it was discovered vast numbers of borrowers could not actually service their loans.

“Sub-Prime mortgages,” Kay reminds us, “have been defined for decades as loans that were approved where the consumers ability to repay the debt in timely monthly terms was outside a level of risk tolerance. The risk tolerance measure most commonly used by lenders in Canada is the Gross Debt Service Ratio (GDS) and Total Debt Service Ratio (TDS), two measures that have been developed with government oversight.  The risk tolerance was designed to protect both consumer and lender by preventing consumers from making a home buying decision that would take up too much of their monthly income.”

Fair enough. We get it. The GDS has been set at a max of 32% of a borrower’s income and the TDS at 40%. The problem, Kay argues, is that the percentages become misleading and irrelevant when interest rates are at historic lows, and (of course) not destined to remain there. For example a couple buying a $1 million house with 50% down qualify to carry the monthly costs of $3,620 (mortgage, taxes and heat) with an income of $137,740.

“The problem for these buyers of a one million dollar home,” says Kay, “is that after all their expected home ownership costs are taken into account they are left with under $1,500 a month to live on.  Simply in order to own the home they just purchased and ensure its value remains protected year after year, over 80% of their after tax income will go towards owning their home. This is Sub-Prime Lending at its worst.”

Kay argues that the GDS and TDS are irrelevant numbers, since rates are so low, allowing people to qualify for huge loans. But lenders do not take into consideration all of the other costs of home ownership, including maintenance, repair, endless renos and insurance. His conclusion: since 2007, over three million mortgages arranged in Canada are sub-prime. That means a whole lot of your neighbours are residing in fancy digs, while living hand-to-mouth. And they’re sure not buying RVs or maxing out their TFSAs.

If you want to see his slide show on how to lose money by owning a house for 25 years, go here.

Finally, a note on TS – Trudeau Stimulation. The latest inflation number came in Friday at a paltry 1%, thanks largely to a big drop in energy costs as the price of oil languishes in the $40-range. This week the Bank of Canada also lowered its outlook for the economy, saying growth will be just 2% this year and 2.5% in 2016. Many economists forecast less.

So, expect big deficits in the next couple of years – and beyond. Capital Economics is calling this “the best policy option” given our weakened growth and crashed commodity values. “The new Liberal government will begin with a relatively small net fiscal loosening, but we suspect that will eventually need to be expanded.”

Ya think?

Deficits are everywhere. Alberta will introduce a whopper on Tuesday. Ontario is screwed. Manitoba’s sinking. Only BC seems to be balancing things, which is in sharp contrast to the epically indebted people who live there.

If you ever wonder why two-thirds of the growth assets in your balanced portfolio should not be maple, look around. We’re addicts.

DEFICTS

218 comments ↓

#1 Ed on 10.23.15 at 6:08 pm

No motor homes are being sold because they trade in USD and our CAN peso is worthless.

btw I live in mine 6 months of the year.

#2 MSM-Free Zone on 10.23.15 at 6:08 pm

“….Unlike Harleys, in contrast, which are necessities…..”
_________________________

Best advice all week.

#3 Paul on 10.23.15 at 6:08 pm

A friend just bought a new f2500 pickup plus a fifth wheel trailer home for a grand total $110,000 showing no income.They finance the whole thing . I know the readers will challenge this but is a fact.

#4 Leo Trollstoy on 10.23.15 at 6:08 pm

Unlike Harleys, in contrast, which are necessities.

Lol

#5 Patrick on 10.23.15 at 6:21 pm

So, skip the house and use this data to negotiate a big discount on a motor home?

#6 Mark on 10.23.15 at 6:22 pm

Let’s see. A deflating RE market. Deflating consumer spending. Inflation which is only at 1%, which is significantly away from the BoC’s policy target of 2%. It all screams for additional rate cuts. And the housing downturn, into its 3rd year now, really hasn’t even started making the headlines yet. Imagine how bad things will be when it does!

The involvement of the CMHC in providing subprime mortgage insurance (a fact that they vehemently deny, but smart people like Mark, Ross Kay, and others can see through the ruse) has temporarily covered up the very poor metrics of the housing finance market in Canada. But sooner or later the cracks will show, and they will drift right into the finances of the government as CMHC’s ultimate guarantor. Expect massive government spending cutbacks if the new Trudeau government is to meet its target of “only” $10B deficits (in contrast with Harper’s roughly $260B of added debt over his decade in power!).

The only thing I’d implore policy makers at this point to do is resist the temptation to engage in QE, as in the United States. Merely do ZIRP and NIRP, letting the market sort out where the lower discount rates associated with such end up stimulating investment. QE in the USA was fundamentally flawed as it stimulated new capacity in sectors which already suffer over-capacity, namely the public sector and housing, through the purchase of US Treasuries and MBS under such programs.

#7 Londoner on 10.23.15 at 6:23 pm

“Kay argues that the GDS and TDS are irrelevant numbers…”

I reached the same conclusion almost 15 years ago when I first started working in banking. The debt ratios only consider the payment terms at a fixed point in time and never appropriately reflect the risk of the total debt obligation. That was back when 5yr rates were at 6-7%. Btw – if the mortgage application was high ratio and qualified for CMHC or GE insurance then the debt ratios could always be stretched (GDSR up to 40% if I recall correctly).

#8 kommykim on 10.23.15 at 6:24 pm

RE:

The latest inflation number came in Friday at a paltry 1%, thanks largely to a big drop in energy costs as the price of oil languishes in the $40-range.

Core inflation is much higher. Funny how the media adds/removes energy from the inflation figures whenever it supports their side of the argument.

#9 Dwight on 10.23.15 at 6:28 pm

It’s been said that men who ride Harleys must have a small dick. Much better to ride a Vulcan, twice the bike, at half the price!!!

But does it throb? — Garth

#10 Mark on 10.23.15 at 6:33 pm

” The debt ratios only consider the payment terms at a fixed point in time and never appropriately reflect the risk of the total debt obligation. That was back when 5yr rates were at 6-7%. “

Merely using ratios instead of considering the quality of the income has a whole set of problems associated with it. I never could understand why an oil and gas worker, being in a highly cyclical industry buying a highly cyclical and correlated asset, had identical CMHC terms to a dentist in the GTA whose income was likely to only be minimally impaired by cyclicality. Other than to come to the belief that CMHC was anything but an ‘insurance’ company but rather a glorified and gameable welfare scheme for Canada’s banking and real estate sectors.

Core inflation is much higher. Funny how the media adds/removes energy from the inflation figures whenever it supports their side of the argument.

Even if we use core inflation, considering the significance of the currency devaluation YoY, its an indictment of the strength of the Canadian economy that “only” 2% core inflation could be achieved over that time period. Canadians have obviously cut back their spending significantly, particularly on imported goods. The housing decline and the reversal/neutralization of the ‘wealth effect’ thus associated is a likely culprit.

#11 james on 10.23.15 at 6:37 pm

A slightly dated article discussing RV sales as an economic indicator (in the context of the USA):

http://wealthyretirement.com/tho-thor-wgo-winnebago-rvs-astonishing-indicator-most-investors-overlook/

There is a handy bar chart of yearly sales. Notice the big dump in 2008-2009.

Canadians would be astonished to hear of all the RV makers that went bottoms up here after the housing bubble imploded. Of course, housing in Canada is immune to this sort of thing. It always goes up.

#12 HP on 10.23.15 at 6:43 pm

its been over 10 years now. Ive officially capitulated. Its over (im from vancouver).

#13 ed on 10.23.15 at 6:46 pm

Hmm, since HD is cutting hundreds of jobs, looks like people cannot afford “necessities” anymore…

#14 Ken on 10.23.15 at 6:49 pm

Real Inflation is running at 7% the CPI numbers are cooked. Maybe no one at the Bank of Canada buys Groceries, Electricity, Medical, Car Insurance along with a whole list of other essential items. Note the 7% I quoted comes straight from of a friend of mine who has had a masters political science for 35 years. 1% is almost laughable

#15 Victoria Real Estate Update on 10.23.15 at 6:57 pm

Sub-Prime mortgages have blown Canada’s massive housing bubble bigger for well over a decade.

Many argue that US Sub-Prime mortgages were responsible for the spectacular crash that took place south of the border. They say that it’s different in Canada because our mortgage lending has been conservative in comparison to that in the US.

They are wrong about it being different and safer in Canada.

Canada’s housing bubble has been inflating on Sub-Prime mortgages (with lax lending standards) for 15 years. In contrast, the US bubble took only 5 or 6 years to inflate.

Mortgage lending in Canada has been reckless – based on, perhaps, the laxest lending standards in the world.

Canada’s housing bubble has inflated for the last 6 years with interest rates at emergency levels. In contrast, the US bubble inflated while rates were at near-normal levels. This is another reason that Canada’s bubble is bigger and more dangerous than the 2006 American bubble.

Housing markets in Canada have crashed before, despite some hilarious attempts to make it sound like this didn’t happen by those who work in the Canadian housing industry.

Canada’s housing market may crash, it’s certainly possible. What’s certain is that Canada’s housing market will go through a deep price correction and it won’t be slow and grinding like some realtors on this site want you to think for their own self-serving reasons.

It isn’t different in Canada.

#16 LittleBitBent on 10.23.15 at 6:57 pm

Note the red and blue colours in the graph do not reflect Liberal vs Conservative.

#17 Retired WI Boomer on 10.23.15 at 7:01 pm

The Harley, I can understand THAT necessity. There ARE other neseccities, too. A house is NOT one of them.

Ask me if my house delivered $5,000 of gains in the last two days? No, but my portfolio did just that.

Besides, the weather is turning crappy. Time to stock up on them there necessities like booze, good music, etc. for the lousy weather due anytime now.

Already got the condo rented in FL so unless something pukes up that forces me to slip, and slide on the ice and possibly doing a Garth imitation, I’ll be seeing if I can get some sun damage in Tampa Bay while chomping Bay Scallops.

In the meantime, I’ll just let the new PM settle in, watch the endless parade of jerks for President here, and try to make sense of things. Trust me, there is a lot of brain wattage being wasted on trivial shit.

Everything seems to be going rather well for us, so with no dire plights, I’ll remain upright, mostly sober, well off, and most of all contented.

#18 balanced my @$$ on 10.23.15 at 7:06 pm

Let me tell you how Krispy klark balanced the budget in bc… bc hydro fees doubled in last 3 years, icbc the car insurance monopoly cost for a Toyota yaris now is exactly how much I paid 3 years for Toyota 4runner with worst accident score…
Should I mention the property transfer tax? Golden goose of bc government, nobody there will pop the bubble.
Port of Vancouver is slowing significantly due to the oil provinces not buying dollarama trinkets…
Ruuuuuuuuuun…
Btw I just got evicted from my 1250$/month rental and I cannot find anything similar…
I dunno whTs going on with the rental market here, friend at bental Kennedy says their residential rentals are crazy but the business rentals occupancy is dropping. Good signs?

#19 ANON on 10.23.15 at 7:08 pm

Mike also (correctly) points out almost nobody in this country buys a motorhome to actually live in, replacing a house.

Mike is correct, for now, excluding warmer parts of BC, where it is probably happening.

#20 balanced my @$$ on 10.23.15 at 7:09 pm

Remember we still need to pay for that 2010 party … I hope that after they show the January house assessments the cities will raise the property rates accordingly 20% is my guess. Party on Garth!

#21 bigtowne on 10.23.15 at 7:10 pm

I was doing my LCBO shopping in Vaughan. It is easy to see why Canada has no growth…all you have to do is walk up and down the aisle at the LCBO and see how duty and tax is so high the Europeans; the Australians; the Americans; the South Americans and the whole planet is hit with skyhigh custom and duty and taxes preventing our trade partners from doing business here. So we do not buy their wine and they don’t buy our exports. We are the author of our miseries…treat your clients bad and they don’t show up.

#22 Freedom First on 10.23.15 at 7:10 pm

Yes. Time for an Alberta update on this topic. I am an avid cyclist and walker/hiker. It is very noticeable right now the inordinate number of Rv’s for sale sitting in driveways. These are usually sold in the spring. Also, there is an even higher number of newer expensive cars and trucks sitting in driveways with not only for sale signs on them, but the trucks have had their nutz removed.

And, the number of layoffs are escalating. Keep in mind, last fall, when I reported on this Blog the thousands of layoffs that were happening in the oil and gas sector, people on this Blog called me a liar, because if it was true, the msm would have reported it. Of course, I was right, and the msm only reported what I had been saying when the msm could no longer hide it.

The same thing is happening now, only, this time it is the Albertan’s themselves who still have jobs who are trying to downplay just how $hitty things are in Alberta. Denial does not work. Reality will take their nutz, and it is happening now. Many people in Alberta have lapsed into silence. Now that I like.

#23 NoOneOfConsequence on 10.23.15 at 7:17 pm

Why is no one mentioning the tax windfall coming?

Trudeau has promised to do something that no politician has done in decades…introduce a truly new source of taxation that doesn’t over-stress the average consumer…controlled sales of marijuana!

Look at what happened in the US states that legalized….over 100 million in tax revenue in the first quarter alone.

#24 Freedom First on 10.23.15 at 7:17 pm

#10 Retired WI Boomer

Good on you! Rock on!

#25 TurnerNation on 10.23.15 at 7:23 pm

Now our forum host must be a Jay’s fan. If I were him I’d blog early then get all liquored up and be ready to yell at TV set in case of any eventuality – good or bad.

Speaking of, I almost bumped into W. Gretzky in Ritz hotel lobby last night. Kept my distance, but a few fans went up and later got pics with him in back patio.

#26 Ken on 10.23.15 at 7:24 pm

Not sure where Mike is located but here on Vancouver Island I can confirm people are living in Motor Homes and RV’s and many 4 season RV parks are now at capacity. I myself live in a 5th wheel the reason is simple rent averages $700.00 monthly including hydro, cable and internet and thanks to Garth I now have savings. Sadly the majority are seniors on fixed incomes where a motor has now become cheaper than an apartment. If I reflect back just over 15 years ago you could drive one end of the Island to another and you would not see one RV at these parks in the winter. What changed in those 15 years Its everything Garth talks daily regarding over inflated house prices which in return inflated rental prices

#27 Godth on 10.23.15 at 7:28 pm

…but look at the stock market Garth! Yeeesss! I’m getting rich! Who cares if it’s all manipulated, I Rock! The chickens will never come home to roost because they’re free range with no (credit/debt) limits. Life is great!

#28 Nora Lenderby on 10.23.15 at 7:30 pm

Oh good grief. Not just the Economist writing about Canada, but now Mr. Krugman too. I’m beginning to feel we’re doomed to be a future example in an economics text book.

#29 Rentier renter on 10.23.15 at 7:30 pm

Looks like the National Post still has the Y2K problem in their charting software…

#30 Reality on 10.23.15 at 7:30 pm

1% inflation?

Only fools would believe that. Try 10% after our currency devaluation.

The 1% number is to keep interest rates low and to limit indexed pensions.

Now, the gov should be selling bridges to people who buy this BS.

#31 Nemesis on 10.23.15 at 7:31 pm

“Only BC seems to be balancing things, which is in sharp contrast to the epically indebted people who live there.” – HonGT

#FunnyYouShouldSayThat,Or… #SomeBalancingActsAreHarderThanOthers&… #It’sNoXunFunInClubFed…

[CBC] – Richmond man, Xun Wang, gets 7 years behind bars for illegal immigration scheme

…”After he was arrested last year, the married father of two pleaded guilty to 15 charges, including illegal immigration consulting, misrepresentation, forgery, fraud, illegally obtaining tax credits and tax evasion.

Wang’s profitable enterprises included creating fake Chinese passports and misrepresenting clients so it would appear they have Canadian addresses and phone numbers when they actually lived in China.

Wang admitted in court that he took these steps in order to create the fictitious appearance of Canadian residency for his clients so they could maintain permanent resident status and obtain Canadian citizenship.”…

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/xun-wang-sentence-1.3285937

#32 squidly77 on 10.23.15 at 7:47 pm

http://calgaryherald.com/life/swerve/a-renters-manifesto-unpredictable-real-estate-prices-and-uncertain-economy-give-new-legitimacy-to-renting

Article sure didn’t stay up for long.

#33 Nora Lenderby on 10.23.15 at 7:52 pm

#21 bigtowne on 10.23.15 at 7:10 pm
I was doing my LCBO shopping in Vaughan. It is easy to see why Canada has no growth…all you have to do is walk up and down the aisle at the LCBO and see how duty and tax is so high the Europeans; the Australians; the Americans; the South Americans and the whole planet is hit with skyhigh custom and duty and taxes preventing our trade partners from doing business here. So we do not buy their wine and they don’t buy our exports. We are the author of our miseries…treat your clients bad and they don’t show up.

Have you been drinking, Mr. Big?

#34 Arfmooocat on 10.23.15 at 7:53 pm

#22 Freedom First

According to Sarah it’s up up and away

http://edmontonrealestateblog.com/weekly-update

#35 ANON on 10.23.15 at 7:58 pm

a new source of taxation that doesn’t over-stress the average consumer […] over 100 million in tax revenue in the first quarter alone

Take that, Brian, you, and your unlucky next door neighbor!
That’s how you perform a world class miracle, I say! Fish and bread…pffft!

#36 lifeisgood on 10.23.15 at 7:58 pm

Sold the house, and for 1/10th of the price of that same house bought 2 RV’S … 6 months in Arizona and 6 months in Alberta. No F150 for me, drive my Lexus in between !

P.S..: Don’t miss the house one bit…

#37 Retired WI Boomer on 10.23.15 at 8:04 pm

#31 Nemesis

Curious to know how many of the 1,200 illegal immigrants “helped” by the Xun Wang bought Real Estate in the greater Vancouver area? After all, people with 10 million to foster illegal immigration don’t quite “stop” there, or DO they?

Interesting thread there….wonder where it will lead?

#38 Nora Lenderby on 10.23.15 at 8:04 pm

Here’s an interesting idea for you, Mr. T.

A pdf of a Bank of England working paper “This study investigates the effects of housing futures trading on housing demand, house price volatility and housing bubbles in a theoretical framework.”

#39 Ralph Cramdown on 10.23.15 at 8:09 pm

But does it throb? — Garth

If it’s a V twin and they’re not at 90 degrees, bring Loctite.

#40 tundra pete on 10.23.15 at 8:14 pm

#9 dwight.
Depends if the bike is a “rainbow” coloured bike or not. If it is, then that could mean the rider may be LGBT which could mean they do not have a dick. But they might. You just never know these days.

#41 Washed Up Lawyer on 10.23.15 at 8:17 pm

Garth:

You said “We just buy them (RV’s) to drive around for three weeks a year and eat up driveway space for the other forty-nine.”

The real estate boards of Fort McMurray and Williston, North Dakota will set you straight.

Particle board enclosed porches and insulation duct taped to the outside of the 5th wheeler in the campground help you enjoy the shinny match on January Saturday nights. That blast of -35 degree wind that hits the couch as your buddies arrive with the Labatt’s Blue is lessened.

#42 RayofLight on 10.23.15 at 8:22 pm

Why should the TFSAs be cut back, when government employee retirement plans are being unfairly enriched. They want the double taxation revenues from ordinary Canadians to finance these huge gold plated public employee retirements. I guess all Canadians are equal, only public employees are more equal.
———-
http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/managing-wealth/cutting-tfsa-limit-unfair-when-our-tax-dollars-pay-for-gold-plated-public-pensions-citizens-group-charges.

#43 not 1st on 10.23.15 at 8:30 pm

“If you ever wonder why two-thirds of the growth assets in your balanced portfolio should not be maple, look around. We’re addicts.”

—–

This comment makes my blood boil. US, Europe, China, Japan, all have just as much debt as we do, its just not in housing. We aren’t the only ones by any means and we are just riding along on the great fed debt experiment.

It’s about commodities, obviously. Boil away. — Garth

#44 A Renter on 10.23.15 at 8:35 pm

Remember all those buyers from China. John Budden who has a podcast at CFRA radio station. You can listen to him here http://www.cfra.com/podcasts.aspx. It is near the very end of his podcast that he talks about Capital Conrols in China (You need to look for his program, called “Business at Night”) . He suggests that China may soon be putting controls in all the money that is leaving the country. Should controls be put in place, watch the prices of condos in Vancouver and Toronto go south. Another worry to consider!

#45 Paul on 10.23.15 at 8:41 pm

#30 Reality on 10.23.15 at 7:30 pm

1% inflation?

Only fools would believe that. Try 10% after our currency devaluation.

The 1% number is to keep interest rates low and to limit indexed pensions.

Now, the gov should be selling bridges to people who buy this BS.
———————————————————-
B.S.
Is right look at Costco.com and compare to Costco.ca Find the same product 30% less it the States and their prices and up 6-10 %

#46 Lee Bow on 10.23.15 at 8:41 pm

People are overstretched, no question about that. I wonder how soon this will become a policy and election issue.

Will the public follow Mr Creosote?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=lhbHTjMLN5c#t=83

#47 Paul on 10.23.15 at 8:46 pm

#23 NoOneOfConsequence on 10.23.15 at 7:17 pm

Why is no one mentioning the tax windfall coming?

Trudeau has promised to do something that no politician has done in decades…introduce a truly new source of taxation that doesn’t over-stress the average consumer…controlled sales of marijuana!

Look at what happened in the US states that legalized….over 100 million in tax revenue in the first quarter alone.
———————————————————-That’s funny nothing is free if they are buying that much weed then they are not buy other things. Plus their over all health care cost rise and their productivity falls through the floor. Groovey Maann

#48 Trudeau’s Wingman on 10.23.15 at 8:47 pm

Is there really a Ross Kay or does he only exist in Garth‘s imagination?

I linked his site. Go find out. — Garth

#49 conan on 10.23.15 at 8:55 pm

Pan Am game hot dogs?
Austerity forever?
The economy is getting moldy and …
sovereign debt is out of control.
It is not going to end well.

#50 Frank on 10.23.15 at 9:02 pm

Is there really a Ross Kay or does he only exist in Garth‘s imagination?

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Ross+Kay

Bah, just let the housing market soften or pop or whatever. I spend 9% of my income on housing and want to spend more (to get a nicer place) but not to rent. Right now the places I want cost $2700 to rent or $3300 to buy (I don’t know where you people are renting $1M places for $2000). That extra $500/month won’t appreciate significantly (especially against 3% yearly rental increases) faster than the place itself so I just rent a cheaper place. I want to see a market move.

#51 Timmy on 10.23.15 at 9:04 pm

Thanks to our former “Conservative” government, we are in this mess. Getting behind the oil industry with at the expense of manufacturing or developing small business.

#52 Arfmooocat on 10.23.15 at 9:05 pm

Retirees: I Did Not Buy IBM To Sell; It’s About The Dividend Income, Stupid

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3599876-retirees-i-did-not-buy-ibm-to-sell-its-about-the-dividend-income-stupid

#53 Keith in Calgary on 10.23.15 at 9:10 pm

#47 said…………”That’s funny nothing is free if they are buying that much weed then they are not buy other things. Plus their over all health care cost rise and their productivity falls through the floor. Groovey Maann”

———————

False.

The people buying legal weed are same people buying illegal weed. Productivity and health care will not change. See Washington State, Colorado, Alaska, and now Oregon for reference.

Just like when prohibition was cancelled, booze sales continued, but just got taxed.

More conservative lies.

#54 Lee Bow on 10.23.15 at 9:16 pm

It is a major negative result of the Right Honourable H times that there is nobody in the Cons party to fill the shoes. I feel many people didn’t like him for his coldness, perceived or real. He does leave almost inhumane impression at times.

Garth, may be it’s time to request your reinstatement in the party and run for leadership? I’d write a check in your support, seriously. I’m sure many would do. It’s clear to everyone that under that tough, rhino skin of yours there is a compassionate heart. That’s what people need to come and vote Conservative again. Plus your beard may attract the hipster vote.

#55 Rexx Rock on 10.23.15 at 9:26 pm

Motorhomes are great for 6 months of the year to live in Canada.2 years ago I met a Quebecer who lives in Puerto Vallarta 6 months of the year and lives in his motorhome in Quebec the other 6 months.He pays pad rental and electricity and internet for $230 a month by a beautiful lake in Quebec.Thats a smart guy on how to live cheap.

#56 For those about to flop... on 10.23.15 at 9:32 pm

Someone smarter than me might be able to work this puzzle out.
Hypothetically how much return would some one have to make in their TSFA in the next3/4 years to make up for the 4500 dollar reduction before the cons get voted back in 2019.
Not sure if it’s realistic but with the small surge in the markets I wondered if this could happen.
I guess you would have to factor in the magic 7% but then my maths gets worse with every beer I drink.

#57 vatodeth on 10.23.15 at 9:36 pm

I’d think that the Stimulus Package would be a positive policy. Isn’t this similar, to how Obama handled the 2008 Recession in America?

#58 Sheane Wallace on 10.23.15 at 9:41 pm

Ex-realtor and housing consultant Ross Kay seems to be one of the only people charting this. And his latest findings are scary. Walking dead scary. He is alleging that millions of loans have been made in Canada which are considered normal, but are actually sub-prime. This sounds eerily like what happened prior to the US housing debacle, in which it was discovered vast numbers of borrowers could not actually service their loans
………………………….
80 % of the loans after 2009 are sub-prime and would have never been made if not for CMHC.

house prices would have been 35 % of the current valuations in Toronto and Vancouver.

I cannot really describe how rally screwed we are.

#59 Leo Trollstoy on 10.23.15 at 9:44 pm

Never considered an RV.

How much do those party buses cost?

#60 Sheane Wallace on 10.23.15 at 9:46 pm

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-10-23/international-buyer-has-been-absent-unsold-hamptons-mansions-pile-bubble-bursts

Just a few months ago, Hamptons 2nd home-hunting was an elitist’s dream. Home sales were surging (highest sicne 2007’s peak) even as home prices soared (in the face of bad weather and economic angst). But that has all changed. As Bloomberg reports, sales of luxury homes in the are have tumbled 16% YoY in Q3, prices have plunged 18% YoY, and inventories are surging (up 34%). The reason is simple, as one realtor notes, “the international buyer has been absent.”
……………………….
The international buyers were busy bying in Vancouver and Toronto!

#61 young & foolish on 10.23.15 at 9:47 pm

“he Harley, I can understand THAT necessity. There ARE other neseccities, too. A house is NOT one of them.”

Sigh* A house is EXACTLY a necessity (unless you intend on sleeping under a bridge). The question is who should own one (obviously somebody must build and own homes for people). Either way, you will pay for a roof over your head. Housing is an expense, NOT an investment. But it’s an expense that seems to be tied to inflation and affordability … where I live, basement apartments used to go for $500 per month, now they are at $1000. Will they go back to $500 after a housing “correction”??? (not holding my breath for that one).

#62 Paul on 10.23.15 at 10:06 pm

53:

Your can’t really think it’s a good thing?

#63 young & foolish on 10.23.15 at 10:07 pm

“Getting behind the oil industry with at the expense of manufacturing or developing small business.”

Memo to Blog Dogs regarding manufacturing jobs … they are not the well paying jobs of yesteryear any more.

#64 Freedom First on 10.23.15 at 10:08 pm

#34 Arfmooocat

Garth has already covered what is really happening in the Alberta RE market. This Blog is about revealing the truth. Work harder.

Alberta is in a $hitstorm. And it is in its early stages.

#65 young & foolish on 10.23.15 at 10:15 pm

So, tapped out consumers, sub-prime loans, falling sales volumes …. economy’s in trouble. Canadian banks under increasing shorting pressure.

The banks are fine. — Garth

#66 Millmech on 10.23.15 at 10:21 pm

#53
I don’t care if it’s legal and taxed,the same unmotivated people doing the same job,it’s good for menial labour positions as low thought process is needed.Just watch for more jobs to be drug tested to weed them out(no pun intended).

#67 CalgaryCarGuy on 10.23.15 at 10:39 pm

I have been living full time in a large motorhome since the spring of 2013 and I love every second of it. In Alberta out close to the mountains near Bragg Creek. My coach was close to 400,000 U.S. new in 1997 and I snapped it up off ebay for 47,900. Almost mint condition and paid cash for it. Dual pane windows and enclosed tanks in heated bays. I have always been warm in it and I have seen -40! It does take some prep like skirting, etc. Diesel boiler hydronic heating but I seldom use that. I heat mainly with firewood believe it or not. I have built what I call a heat battery right outside the coach. It is basically a large wood stove buried in sand in a cinder-block structure. Six inch steel piping in the sand next to the stove is routed into one of my coach windows. I use a big computer fan to push air out of the coach through the piping into the heat battery and then back into the coach. This way I can heat with wood and not have to have the hassle of smoke and ash. It’s like a luxury apartment really. Plus, I have mobility. If things get bad enough here in Alberta I can fire it up and move my house to anywhere the jobs are in Canada. Works for me plus it is a fun, adventurous lifestyle.

#68 JSS on 10.23.15 at 10:48 pm

#64 Freedom First

Based on the number of RX350’s being sold at a particular Lexus dealership in Edmonton, I’d say Alberta is still doing fine at this moment in time. Like I said a few days ago, the buggers don’t want to haggle even a grand off a used Lexus RX that’s like 10 years old. I was shocked and I’m still pissed.

There ya go – the barometer of economic health of a nation, province, city etc is the demand and haggle room for an RX

#69 Washed Up Lawyer on 10.23.15 at 10:50 pm

Dr. Smoking Man:

A while ago, you insisted that if we had a question for you, we had to open with your formal title. Hence I did.

What do you make of this gal’s writing style?

Title:

I Worked in a Strip Club in a North Dakota Fracking Boomtown

A short sample of her efforts:

“I went to report on life in the oil fields and ended up working as a cocktail waitress. Here are some of the crazy people I met and the stories they told me.”

“They recycled rumors about secret fights in rooms with padded walls and padded doors, where a winner can walk away with $50,000 to $60,000 in cash, and home poker games with buy-ins of more than $1,000. I quickly began learning the challenge of reporting from the oilfields: rumors are rampant—there is not, for example, a cache of weapons and explosives stashed in a bunker behind Scenic Sports and Liquor, despite claims that it’s so—yet the most insane-sounding things have actually happened.”

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/10/inside-north-dakotas-crazy-oil-boom

#70 conan on 10.23.15 at 11:05 pm

Rain delay? Rain delay?
Bartender!!

#71 kommykim on 10.23.15 at 11:22 pm

RE:

#67 CalgaryCarGuy on 10.23.15 at 10:39 pm
Six inch steel piping in the sand next to the stove is routed into one of my coach windows. I use a big computer fan to push air out of the coach through the piping into the heat battery and then back into the coach.

Do you have a CO alarm?

#72 Oil on 10.23.15 at 11:24 pm

Shell is posting fresh new jobs on linked in. Oil bust was a game, one of the reasons was to fire the overpaid blokes and re-hire cheaper labour. It is a cycle that happens continuosly, just as it happened with the auto industry in 08-09. Prices are there to serve a bigger purpose, read between the lines.

#73 Smoking Man on 10.23.15 at 11:25 pm

#69 Washed Up Lawyer on 10.23.15 at 10:50 pm
Dr. Smoking Man:

A while ago, you insisted that if we had a question for you, we had to open with your formal title. Hence I did.

What do you make of this gal’s writing style?

Title:

I Worked in a Strip Club in a North Dakota Fracking Boomtown

A short sample of her efforts:

“I went to report on life in the oil fields and ended up working as a cocktail waitress. Here are some of the crazy people I met and the stories they told me.”

“They recycled rumors about secret fights in rooms with padded walls and padded doors, where a winner can walk away with $50,000 to $60,000 in cash, and home poker games with buy-ins of more than $1,000. I quickly began learning the challenge of reporting from the oilfields: rumors are rampant—there is not, for example, a cache of weapons and explosives stashed in a bunker behind Scenic Sports and Liquor, despite claims that it’s so—yet the most insane-sounding things have actually happened.”

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/10/inside-north-dakotas-crazy-oil-boom
…….

Its not very good, like being in a crowded street car.

But hell what do I know. I Don’t read. So my opinion is probably worthless.

Its just describing a scene. Have no sence of the writes sole.

My style. Chapter 6

We gather on the flight deck after dinner, I’m trying not to show how horny I am at the prospect of flying this beast. Ashman’s still in a foul mood, Jeremiah relieved after a chat talking family and religion with Isaac. Barrington sucking up to Isaac not realising Isaac is now an outlaw. Greenola, Mohammed and Abraham right by Isaacs side uneasy with all of us…

Ashman sarcastically blurts out, “So what’s the plan commander Smokey?”

“Same as Always.” I said.

Ashman looks at his father and rolls his eyes.

“Ok crew, we need to make a quick pit stop to the sun, fuel up, then we’re going back to Las Vegas. We will put on a slow flyby then me and Barrington will go back to the Flamingo and get captured. Ashman stay here and talk to your dad, Jeremiah you need to go back to New Orleans, many counting on you” I said.

I start flying this bitch, a lot easier and a hell of alot more powerful than I thought, I over shoot the sun by two Galaxies. Shift it into reverse and in less than a second we are hovering over the sun. I deploy the plasma intake nozzle, and in less than five minutes got enough fuel for two trips around the universe.

This is bad news for for earth, they’re all betting on global warming, I think I just started a new ice age. Should have went to a bigger star, all this booze of late is starting to affect my judgment. Going to have to move the entire family to the equator now.

#74 Smoking Man on 10.23.15 at 11:34 pm

#69 Washed Up Lawyer on 10.23.15 at 10:50 pm
Dr. Smoking Man:

I retract my early comments. I just read the link..

Its very good..

#75 omg the original on 10.23.15 at 11:47 pm

Lots of people are out of money. Wages haven’t increased for years, and yet debt is swelling at an annual rate of 5%, with many households already pooched. Lax lending standards have allowed sales of big-ticket items like bloated buses with granite countertops to continue, and nowhere has that been more evident than with residential real estate.
———————-

Yes this is what government policies do that divert resources – there is always collateral damage and it usually not clear what the damage is until years later.

And usually nobody really understand it except some Phd student that has to write a paper.

So what might Canada’s Millenials obsession with spending 60% of after tax income do to our society in the future…….

1) lower birth rate because Millenials cannot afford as many kids

2) later retirement for Millenials’ parents that lent them $150K to by that house in Burnaby

3) less expenditures on other discretionary goods and services – as already pointed out by GT

4) a army of home builders/trades that may have to retrain when the bubble starts deflating and $60/hr drywallers are no longer in demand (although those in the oil provinces are already having to hustle for work)

5) ??

#76 The Great Canadian Bubble Co. on 10.23.15 at 11:53 pm

Any prediction on how adviser fees in Canada will change in the next two years

http://business.financialpost.com/personal-finance/managing-wealth/financial-advisers-push-back-against-intervention-on-compensation

No idea, as I do not sell mutual funds. Nor should you buy them. — Garth

#77 SAM on 10.23.15 at 11:55 pm

http://startouch.thestar.com/screens/adb175c4-7699-4e97-9052-bfb35ba90639|_0.html

#78 Debtfree on 10.24.15 at 12:04 am

If 24 Sussex is a heritage building owned by Canada . Then why is it up to the sitting PM whether or not the thing either poisons or falls on or both on the occupants ? A real estate politico like you must have thought about it today . As heritage goes it doesn’t get better . Why let it go ?

#79 Rice Hogger on 10.24.15 at 12:05 am

Garth,

Maybe your RV friend should re-focus his business on trailer parks, which could become the wave of the future.

Now speaking of austerity Garth, any chance of you trading in the expensive Harley hog for a fuel efficient rice rocket?

#80 Rice Hogger on 10.24.15 at 12:14 am

#33 Nora Lenderby on 10.23.15 at 7:52 pm
#21 bigtowne on 10.23.15 at 7:10 pm
I was doing my LCBO shopping in Vaughan. It is easy to see why Canada has no growth…all you have to do is walk up and down the aisle at the LCBO and see how duty and tax is so high the Europeans; the Australians; the Americans; the South Americans and the whole planet is hit with skyhigh custom and duty and taxes preventing our trade partners from doing business here. So we do not buy their wine and they don’t buy our exports. We are the author of our miseries…treat your clients bad and they don’t show up.

Have you been drinking, Mr. Big?…”

Don’t yous be frettin’, once the gov’t sponsored ganja floods the markets, you will be able to get a cheap high, forget about all your debt, wander the aisles of the LCBO admiring the pretty colours of the bottles of booze you can’t afford, and then head over to the nearest fast food joint to deal with those munchies….

#81 Tim on 10.24.15 at 12:20 am

“Memo to Blog Dogs regarding manufacturing jobs … they are not the well paying jobs of yesteryear any more.”

That’s because big business has systematically weakend unions bargaining power. I’m not in maufacturing, but I’m sure it pays better than many retail jobs.

#82 ozy - that is an incoherent analysis on 10.24.15 at 12:31 am

that is an incoherent analysis

good start but erroneous results… FORCED

#83 Money Coach on 10.24.15 at 12:43 am

#56 For those about to flop… on 10.23.15 at 9:32 pm
“Hypothetically how much return would some one have to make in their TSFA in the next3/4 years to make up for the 4500 dollar reduction before the cons get voted back in 2019.”
Ok, I’ll take a stab at this. Two people have $41,000 in their TFSA on Dec 31st 2015. On Jan 2nd they both max out their TFSA with their new contribution room. One has $10k of new contribution room not indexed. The other has $5,500 indexed to inflation. The indexed contribution is rounded to the nearest $500. If inflation is 1.5% their contribution limit will be $5,500 in 2016, 2017, and 2018 but in 2019 their contribution will grow to $6,000. Assuming both people max their limit and earn a 7% return, the person with the $10k limit will have $101,250 at the end of 2019, while the person with the $5,500 limit will only have $80,407. In order for the person with the lower limit to have $101,250 at the end of 2019 they would have to earn a consistent return of 14.18% over the four years.

#84 Smoking Man on 10.24.15 at 12:49 am

Bicycle ridding, tree hugging, car hating Kathleen Wynee toe sucking climate change warriors in pink shirts.

Your team lost…

My condolences..

#85 Fuzzy Camel on 10.24.15 at 1:02 am

So our factories/businesses are closing, while citizens rack up endless consumer debt, enabled by fudging the lending standards. We have a huge amount of loans considered sub-prime.

Now let’s see how Garth is with technical analysis of stock charts. Look at the textbook head-and-shoulders pattern forming on WTI-oil. That’s right, in the next 6 months we will see oil go to $15/barrel if it is right.

My advice is to get out of all Canadian dollar assets. You will see the loonie tasting $0.60 soon. Inflation is going to be extreme on food. The house-poor will be squeezed really hard soon.

#86 DON on 10.24.15 at 3:08 am

#26 Ken on 10.23.15 at 7:24 pm
Not sure where Mike is located but here on Vancouver Island I can confirm people are living in Motor Homes and RV’s and many 4 season RV parks are now at capacity. I myself live in a 5th wheel the reason is simple rent averages $700.00 monthly including hydro, cable and internet and thanks to Garth I now have savings. Sadly the majority are seniors on fixed incomes where a motor has now become cheaper than an apartment. If I reflect back just over 15 years ago you could drive one end of the Island to another and you would not see one RV at these parks in the winter. What changed in those 15 years Its everything Garth talks daily regarding over inflated house prices which in return inflated rental prices
******************************

I’ve seen the same thing this summer camping up and down the island, lots of full year RV parks. While the concept isn’t new to the island the increased demand (or need) is. A $400 pad feed saves a lot of rent. More retirees and are doing it – especially the single ones, regardless if they have public sector pensions or not. Walking through the campsites / RV parks one gets the sense of community. Not a bad thing! Lower maintenance costs, mobility, travel from place to place. This may continue when rents finally do come down.

#87 Freedom First on 10.24.15 at 3:20 am

#68 JSS

Invalid comparison. Dig deeper.

#88 DON on 10.24.15 at 3:24 am

#59 Leo Trollstoy on 10.23.15 at 9:44 pm
Never considered an RV.

How much do those party buses cost?
***********************************
Just heard a story of a neighbor of my BIL. Neighbor sold the family farm in Sask for millions, bought a new $750K Bus with granite counter tops. Guys health is not good, but why the hell not. Enjoy!

#89 Nagraj on 10.24.15 at 4:40 am

If I remember BIBLE SCHOOL rightly, little David knocked Goliath off with his little slingshot. (If ya wanna know what little David really looked like there’s a statue of him in Rome, JT posed for it.)
Little David did not Riverdance in triumph on Goliath’s cooling corpse and go home. No. Here’s what he did: he got out his little Swiss Army pen knife and laboriously sawed Goliath’s head off. (A messy business to be sure.)
Why? Well, Mother Angelica says David did it to make absolutely certain the giant creep would never ever get up again.

The Cons corpus (which unlike Goliath’s body is NOT even seemingly dead) wants a new caput, a head transplant. And I see where Mr. McKay, for one, is also sawing away by calling for an INCLUSIVE Cons party. Michelle Rempel has got herself a chainsaw.

The mind-boggling bigotry of the Harper campaign might be exclusively attributed to Harper’s leadership – hopefully that’s the case.

#90 GC on 10.24.15 at 5:31 am

For example a couple buying a $1 million house with 50% down …

You mean 5% or 50%?

As stated. — Garth

#91 crossbordershopper on 10.24.15 at 6:24 am

Im just a poor guy living in hamilton. But, let me get this straight, you have 500,000 equity in a home thats worth a million. and you make 137000 a year with the wife i guess and you live on 1500 a month after all expenses.
thats funny, because i live on 1500 a month, without the fancy house, i rent, and its not by choice you understand. so you go to work every day, like every single day of your life to have the privilidge of living in a home, that you dont live in its just to store your stuff and to sleep in.
i have an apartment where i store my stuff and sleep in , and net 1500 a month, well that it, what is the difference between working and not working. a house? ok, a nice house? sure, i find people dont understand that working for most people is not a happy thing to do, they must do it, this wage slave is very relevent, i chose to be a bum, i saw people working, still do, i even tried working a few times because i have nothing to do, but for a guy with no job ever, im 47 i basically have everything that everyone else has, you will be surprised the stuff people through out or give away or you can haggle for next to nothing, bartering etc.
so, am i a looser, perhaps in some people eyes, but im free, i owe nothing, well i have nothing too. but this junior trudeau is going to look after me, with more money, your money, im ok with it, i am sure you are too, since you voted for him.
i know a guy i see at the coffee shop worked here 30 years, came from ireland, makes all in 2700 a month, private pension, irish pension, oas, cpp etc. and im at 1500 for nothing. never worked. i fiind the difference way too little for the difference in working.
my financial advice, dont work. dont get caught in the consumerism world. its a drug, you will never have enough stuff they try to sell you and you will die litterly trying to make enough money to buy it. you dont need it. live simple, happy and comfortable. you dont need 4 washrooms and 4 bedrooms house for that. how often do people need to pee anyway?

#92 Blow Jays destroyed, Argggh-Os crushed, Toronto and Canada going down the toilet on 10.24.15 at 8:14 am

The Jays were something like O for 8 with men on base. Face it, they just did not deserve a win.

Sounds a lot like Canada’s two-trick economy – oil and real estate. With those heavy hitters in trouble, we’ll be losing too, bigtime. We don’t manufacture anything of importance anymore, sort of like the Jays unable to manufacture runs.

Thank you for that, Stephen Harperhole.

And because I don’t wish to be cruel, I have not even mentioned the Leafs…………

#93 Linda on 10.24.15 at 8:25 am

The inflation numbers are viewed by many as suspect.

For example, the same report shows that fresh food has actually increased by 11% over the last year.

Yes, ELEVEN per cent.

That’s what most folks are noticing. Too much is left out of inflation calculations for it to be a very useful indicator.

#94 HogtownIndebted on 10.24.15 at 8:45 am

Closely related to RVs is the sale and resale of boats. This has never really recovered in the USA since 2008, and has been sliding in Canada for three years already.

Check out craigslist and kijiji and you can see that now is the start of “free boat” season. Lots of people willing to give away a boat for free (or provide free winter storage or a trailer) if you will just take the ongoing costs off their hands.

So boat sales are also a great indicator of cash-flow stress. If you were dumb enough to have bought a factory new power boat for $50K in 2000, you’d be lucky to get $10K for it today from some greater fool, which barely covers one year’s storage and maintenance, not including gas, of course, which could easily be over $500 per fill up.

Lots of people just give up instead and try to sell. If you care to own one, the next six months are a great time to vultch, with people giving you free moorage for 2016 as well.

But why would you? Rent one, or a cottage for the week or two you might actually use it, and sae thousands.

#95 maxx on 10.24.15 at 8:53 am

#10 Mark on 10.23.15 at 6:33 pm

“Merely using ratios instead of considering the quality of the income has a whole set of problems associated with it.”

Excellent point. The quality of jobs continues to seriously deteriorate as we go forward- in terms of long-term opportunity, salary levels and especially benefits. That, coupled with the continued increase in momentum of debt acquisition is a recipe for disaster in terms of the already compromised structure of our economy.

“Canadians have obviously cut back their spending significantly, particularly on imported goods. The housing decline and the reversal/neutralization of the ‘wealth effect’ thus associated is a likely culprit.”

No question. Second-hand stores have gone mainstream. Beamers, Mercedes and other assorted higher-end rides parked right out front. Nearly everyone is looking for bargains as well as NO TAX on them. Inside, people of all stripes share info on where the best deals are to be found.

How things have changed. TPTB have got to ratchet back these insane debt-promoting lending standards.

#96 maxx on 10.24.15 at 9:06 am

It would appear that TPTB do not recognize that a relatively happy citizenry is a more productive one – one that works better and often invokes imagination to move forward and do better.
Debt effectively and inexorably vaporizes that variable.

#97 George S on 10.24.15 at 9:13 am

A few years ago I was talking to a loan person at the bank. I asked her if anyone actually borrowed up to the 40% of gross household income level as monthly payments. She said yes, but usually people that did that often were either divorced or bankrupt after a year or so. Not very many made it for very long.
More years ago one of my co-workers arrived at work with a new minivan. After making sure it was his I asked him how he managed it. I knew he was in the same position as me and there was no possible way I could afford the payments. He said that it was difficult and that they had to be really careful because they couldn’t afford anything else and had to discuss simple purchases like a pair of pliers as to whether they could afford them or not. About 3 weeks later he sold the minivan and was driving an $1100 used half ton to work.

People buying these really expensive properties to live in are crazily setting themselves up for a lifetime of wage slavery.

On another note, my wife and I were discussing the other day whether if at first everyone had granite counter tops because it was the only thing available if Arborite would be the thing everyone was after: finally something nice and soft, warm, looks like granite, dishes don’t break knives don’t get dull, nicely contoured, light, cheap, change colour for a couple hundred dollars yourself. Our first counter top in our small house cost $6 plus glue.

#98 james on 10.24.15 at 9:17 am

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/24/maldives-vice-president-charged-over-alleged-plot-to-kill-president

See Garth? That’s how it’s done when you have an a-hole as a leader!

Why couldn’t you have just slipped a little something into Harper’s lipstick or blush containers when you were in the caucus? We could have saved ourselves almost ten years of economic stupidity – think of the children!!!

(And you’d be out on parole by now)

You have disappointed Canadians.

#99 earlybird on 10.24.15 at 9:22 am

#90 crossbordershopper….Im in the same camp…working a good part time job. I gave up consumerism, and now don’t need to work full time…the time you get back is priceless!

Is your qualifying amount for mortages calculated before tax? (can’t remember) if so…wouldn’t that make the tdsr and gdsr a hell of a lot higher of a percentage? anyone?

#100 CalgaryCarGuy on 10.24.15 at 9:44 am

Re #71 by kommykim
#67 CalgaryCarGuy on 10.23.15 at 10:39 pm
Six inch steel piping in the sand next to the stove is routed into one of my coach windows. I use a big computer fan to push air out of the coach through the piping into the heat battery and then back into the coach.

Do you have a CO alarm?
—————————————————————–I do but you are obviously not understanding the concept. The byproducts of combustion never enter the coach. The air is sealed inside welded steel pipes that pass through very hot sand. There is no way for CO or anything else to enter my coach. By the way I have never seen either of my CO detectors read anything but zero.

#101 Herb on 10.24.15 at 9:47 am

My dear Tylenol,

please look at the graph at the bottom of Garth’s post and prove once again the complete divorce from reality of the current Canadian Conservative by proclaiming once again that balancing the budget was one of Harper’s accomplishments.

#102 Trailerpark Trash on 10.24.15 at 9:57 am

#67 CalgaryCarGuy

Your motorhome sold for $400,000 new and 18 years later it’s only worth $47,900! That’s a terrible investment.

I had a lady friend that bought a new mobilehome five years ago on leased land. Stainless steel appliances and granite etc. Now five years later, she’s retired, the mobilehome has seriously depreciated, she has no equity in the land and the bank won’t renew her loan. Terrible investment!

#103 Leo Trollstoy on 10.24.15 at 10:37 am

As Toronto real estate prices continues to increase with no end in sight, the developers are becoming more and more insane.

http://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2015/10/24/the-rise-of-willowdale-torontos-hottest-new-neighbourhood.html

#104 800RMK on 10.24.15 at 10:41 am

I see that Justin Trudeaus ass of a father was in power during a lot of those big deficits. Even after all that money he stole from western Canada. Hmm. Scary what his half with son will do, what with his big time economic understanding he accumulated as a drama teacher and public speaker.

A drama teacher being elected prime minister shows how out to lunch people have become in this country. I had a better resume when I was 25 years old, and at 31 have more qualification to run the country then this fool.

His moron off a father stole billions of dollars from western Canada. Carbon taxes and the like are nothing short of national energy program point two if you look at the overall picture. Not wanting pipelines – northern gateway prevents job creation. I guess this idiot would rather blow tax payer money go into debt and have more people reliant on government. But then again I wouldn’t expect much more from a dope smoking drama teacher.

His attack on “rich ” people is a another attack on western Canada – re: the disproportionate number of high income earners in the west.

I hope we get western Canadian separation revived because its absolute bull crap how much wealth has been pillaged from western Canada to pay for eastern Canadas bs. Yes Garth we would be better off on our own , let’s start adding up the billions we have sent out east – there is or sovereign wealth fund. It went All to a bunch of useless socialists and elitists out east.

Enjoy your NDP deficit. And don’t bother coming back here. — Garth

#105 Ole Doberman on 10.24.15 at 10:45 am

Gartho is it time to start buying stocks again? Markets appear to be in recovery mode after testing August lows.

Why did you not buy in August? I told you it was a correction, not a coronary. — Garth

#106 For those about to flop... on 10.24.15 at 10:53 am

#82 Money Coach on 10.24.15 at 12:43 am
#56 For those about to flop… on 10.23.15 at 9:32 pm
“Hypothetically how much return would some one have to make in their TSFA in the next3/4 years to make up for the 4500 dollar reduction before the cons get voted back in 2019.”
Ok, I’ll take a stab at this. Two people have $41,000 in their TFSA on Dec 31st 2015. On Jan 2nd they both max out their TFSA with their new contribution room. One has $10k of new contribution room not indexed. The other has $5,500 indexed to inflation. The indexed contribution is rounded to the nearest $500. If inflation is 1.5% their contribution limit will be $5,500 in 2016, 2017, and 2018 but in 2019 their contribution will grow to $6,000. Assuming both people max their limit and earn a 7% return, the person with the $10k limit will have $101,250 at the end of 2019, while the person with the $5,500 limit will only have $80,407. In order for the person with the lower limit to have $101,250 at the end of 2019 they would have to earn a consistent return of 14.18% over the four years.
/////////////////////////////////////////////
Thanks money coach for taking the time to try to explain this to me.
You explained your findings really well and you got most of my points but I don’t have the financial vocabulary to explain totally what I meant and so I will call this a win.
I wish you a good weekend,thanks.

#107 Ole Doberman on 10.24.15 at 11:00 am

Gartho is it time to start buying stocks again? Markets appear to be in recovery mode after testing August lows.

Why did you not buy in August? I told you it was a correction, not a coronary. — Garth
———————————————————-

Oh ok. I think you said you see the DOW going to 25Kish or so in a book you wrote awhile back – what will be the catalyst to push it that high? Is the bond market crumbling?

Thx bro!

The bond market is fine and the book was written 20 years ago. This blog is updated daily. Take your pick. — Garth

#108 Leo Trollstoy on 10.24.15 at 11:02 am

My advice is to get out of all Canadian dollar assets. You will see the loonie tasting $0.60 soon.

I dunno. I was a USD bull in the past but the downside of the CAD seems limited. I wouldn’t be surprised if it stays at this level for awhile.

#109 Patrick on 10.24.15 at 11:04 am

#63 young & foolish on 10.23.15 at 10:07 pm

“Memo to Blog Dogs regarding manufacturing jobs … they are not the well paying jobs of yesteryear any more.”
___________________________________________

Well obviously they can’t compete with the 6-figure sunshine list jobs that the government provides.

The difference being is that these jobs are for companies that actually generate wealth, not spend it. Also, where do the taxes that pay those expensive teachers come from? Maybe, just maybe, we can all work in the public sector one day.

#110 Lea on 10.24.15 at 11:10 am

Couple of questions for the inhabitants of Garthland (forgive my ignorance):

Why would they put something as heavy as granite in something you have to use gas to move around? Wouldn’t it make sense to use the lightest materials?

Do many people in Alberta actually put truck nutz on their trucks?

#111 TurnerNation on 10.24.15 at 11:10 am

Was this posted: Calgary, again.

“Globalnews.ca reported that nearly 400 people in Calgary were told about the downsizing plan and CBC said it was contacted by a Scotiabank employee who estimated 200 people in her region could be affected.”

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/10/23/scotiabank-to-close-some-regional-offices

#112 Ole Doberman on 10.24.15 at 11:16 am

The bond market is fine and the book was written 20 years ago. This blog is updated daily. Take your pick. — Garth
————————————————————

Ok I’ll try to attend the daily blog more. But what about wars and debt crisis coming?

#113 Ret on 10.24.15 at 11:16 am

#90 – Welfare is a lifestyle choice for far too many in Hamilton.

I have repeatedly have warned readers about RE in Hamilton. It is a value trap. Once better areas are in slow but steady decline which means that personal safety and schools are also not what they were just a few years ago.

The lower city is filled with large numbers of people on social assistance who strut around like they are on top of the world. Lots of $3500 scooters to make those beer store runs too. (Thanks Kathleen!)

Insurance rates for auto and home owners that reflect the true joy of living in a high crime rate city with increasing numbers of incidents involving drugs, hookers, guns and stabbings.

The highest property taxes in Ontario and zilch by-law and enforcement round out the picture.

#114 CalgaryCarGuy on 10.24.15 at 11:24 am

Re #102 by Trailerpark trash
Your motorhome sold for $400,000 new and 18 years later it’s only worth $47,900! That’s a terrible investment.
—————————————————————–
You are right. They are a terrible investment to purchase new but they are sure a sweet deal after all that depreciation. It is quite luxurious inside with leather furnishings and solid oak cabinets. Very comfortable and well built. Best of all its paid for.

#115 Washed Up Lawyer on 10.24.15 at 11:24 am

#110 Lea on 10.24.15 at 11:10 am

I cannot answer your first question about granite in RV’s. I have never been in one.

To your question about truck nutz, in Ft. McM I have only seen them hanging from the trailer hitch twice. Behind the wheel (100% of the population drives a truck), about 65% of trucks have nutz.

#116 JimH on 10.24.15 at 11:26 am

#92 WallOfWorry on 10.23.15 at 6:27 am
#96 Newbie Investor on 10.23.15 at 9:13 am
in response to my post #78 JimH on 10.22.15 at 11:51 pm referencing QE and “money printing”.

Hey, I appreciate your comments and concerns.

There remains a great deal of misunderstanding about QE (at least as practiced by the US Federal Reserve).

First, QE did NOT inject massive amounts of cash into the system via “money printing”. Back in 2009 there was great panic by many economists and others (who should have known better) that this was exactly what the Fed was doing, and as such was driving the USA down a hyper-inflationary path. The end result, so they predicted, would make the US dollar worthless, send the price of gold soaring and initiate another depression even worse than the ‘ten lost years’ of the 1930’s. So-called ‘economist/fund managers’ like Peter Schiff held onto those predictions long enough to lose their investors very large sums of money. (see; http://www.economicpredictions.org/peter-schiff-predictions/index.htm).

The simple truth is that there was no hyper-inflation at all post 2008, extremely low inflationary pressure (after a modest and rather ill-considered silly buying spree in commodities with the result you see), the US economy made glacial but positive progress, and the greenback has not only survived, but in fact appears to be rather globally desirable.

The many dire predictions failed to come true for the simple reason that QE did NOT add any NEW assets to the private sector. None. No money was printed. (The US Fed can’t print money in the first place, but that’s another matter.)

QE is an asset swap whereby bonds held by banks were exchanged for increases in their reserves. Bank reserves are like a savings account held by the Fed. Banks do not lend out their reserves, by the way. Bank reserves simply ensure liquidity within the banking system and reduce stress in the banking system. It adds no liquidity directly to the markets nor to the economy.

The Fed auctions off those bonds (usually at maturity) and the proceeds find their way to the US treasury, so yes, the private sector is out some interest. But nothing new has been created. The assets were there in the first place, just like you juggling your deposits between checking and saving accounts in a way.

As Ben Bernanke tried over and over to explain, “Now, what these reserves are is essentially deposits that commercial banks hold with the Fed, so sometimes you hear the Fed is printing money, that’s not really happening, the amount of cash in circulation is not changing. What’s happening is that banks are holding more and more reserves with the Fed.”

He might have added, “And we are relieving them of some of their bond holdings.”

The term “money printing” is more than an unfortunate semantic choice of words. It has led many into very bad investing decisions, like seeing gold at $1,700/Toz as a “bargain”, predicting $200/Bbl oil, and putting whatever of their hard-earned dollars remained into various forms of weaponry and ammunition.

Cullen Roche has some excellent stuff on QE here:
http://www.pragcap.com/understanding-quantitative-easing/

BTW, the US Fed is NOT responsible for financing US debt and never has been.

All forms of QE are not at all equal, BTW! For example, the European Union version of QE involves the creation of member-state bonds which are bought with ECB Euros or are in many cases ‘guaranteed’ by the ECB. This does create Euros in the hands of the bond -issuing member-state and has put pressure on the Euro as a result. This seems much more like “money-printing” to me!

Like as if Nova Scotia issues a bond and the Canadian Government buys it, thereby ‘creating’ funds so that Nova Scotia could continue to pay its bills and continue to function as a member of Confederation.

The Chinese version of QE is opaque and complex enough to give me a headache, but somebody here might help out.

#117 Ralph Cramdown on 10.24.15 at 11:32 am

#104 800RMK — “A drama teacher being elected prime minister shows how out to lunch people have become in this country. I had a better resume when I was 25 years old, and at 31 have more qualification to run the country then this fool.”

Are you a lawyer? It’s time to start work on getting Canada’s natural governing class (lawyers) back into power.

http://www.parl.gc.ca/parlinfo/compilations/federalgovernment/primeministers/biographical.aspx

N.B. Joe Clark should rightly be classified as a failed law student who married a lawyer.

”The first thing we do, let’s elect all the lawyers” — Wm. Shakespeare, Henry VI Part II

#118 Broke Dick on 10.24.15 at 11:41 am

Question for Crossbordershopper.
Where does the $1500/month come from? Disability pension?

#119 Ponzius Pilatus on 10.24.15 at 11:46 am

I thought most of blog dogs are 1 per centers.
Turns out many live in a trailer park.
The power of the Internet.

#120 Retired WI Boomer on 10.24.15 at 11:47 am

#61 Young & Foolish

A house is NOT a necessity. Shelter IS one. Please do not confuse the two.

You can rent shelter, versus owning shelter. You can further lower your shelter costs by sharing said shelter with another (roommate).

Married, you probably don’t need the roommate, but for the young, single & foolish out there that is a possibility.

let’s discuss “owning” a home. I own mine, free and clear. It is in a wee tiny town of 560 people because I like the area, worked from home, and the fully improved land was a steal at $11,900. How am I doing so far?

OK, take said land, build a decent 4 bedroom 2 popper, 2 car garage, and deck. 1997 build date set me back $109K.
Paid it off.

Monthly carry on a PAID FOR home (per my 2014 calculations of actual expenses) $9,210.75 or $767.56

Real estate taxes, insurance, electric, natural gas, hydro, garbage collection, phone & cable, in 2014.

The monthly does NOT include the lost opportunity costs per anum (compounded) on the original $109,000 cost.
It does include a $100. monthly anticipated “sunk cost” reno/repair/improvement escrow.

Now… Thinking it costs $767.56 just to turn the key in the door….on a PAID home, How should one look at shelter expense?

Rent? What is included?

Buy? acquisition cost, money rental (interest), and all of the items outlined above.

Make an INFORMED decision, buying SHELTER, it IS a lifestyle choice it is NOT an investment.

#121 Broke Dick on 10.24.15 at 11:52 am

#103 Leo Trollstoy on 10.24.15 at 10:37 am
As Toronto real estate prices continues to increase with no end in sight, the developers are becoming more and more insane.

http://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2015/10/24/the-rise-of-willowdale-torontos-hottest-new-neighbourhood.html

====================================
Ha! Your link is giving Mark ammo to continue his rant on his sales mix theory and how Toronto real estate has been on the decline going on three years now.

So Trollboy, either your are too stupid to realize your error or you are just hoping that Mark comes out and plays with you cause you miss him, and no one else will play with you.

#122 Panhead on 10.24.15 at 11:58 am

I was recently over in our neighboring province of Alberta to attend a wedding. Returned via Edmonton, Calgary, Banff. I could not believe the number of RV’s for sale along the highway. Lots FULL of them. Seemed like there was one for every Canadian. The money those places had tied up in inventory must be staggering. Never seen anything like it over here in B.C.
And if you want something that really throbs … try a rigid panhead Garth…

#123 Doug in London on 10.24.15 at 12:01 pm

It seems we Canadians got it ass backwards. Shouldn’t we have been using these historically low interest rates to pay off debts rather than accumulating more? If you absolutely MUST accumulate debt, use it to buy stocks or ETFs when they are ON SALE, as was the case recently, and sell them when they go back up as they always do. It’s money for nothing, although there’s no guarantee you’ll get the chicks for free (Dire Straits, circa 1985).

@LittleBitBent, post #16:
They do reflect Liberal vs. Conservative in a sense, although the colours are reversed. Strange how the surpluses were during a Liberal government and the deficits were during a Conservative government. While this new Liberal government probably won’t be running surpluses any time soon , there’s no guarantee we would be running surpluses if the Conservatives got back in either.

#124 TurnerNation on 10.24.15 at 12:05 pm

Remember folks the world is set up like Pyramid. We’re at the bottom. Our money flows upwards.

How may litres of gasoline gets sold in Canada each year? Anyone know?
50% of its price is taxes.

So, total sales x $1/litre x 50% ?

Should be enough to pave our streets with gold? Or twin all those dangerous highways on which Canadians die by the thousands each year?

Naw. How about billions taken to keep us safe from the overseas boogeyman.

Look up.

#125 Prairieboy43 on 10.24.15 at 12:10 pm

“Trudeau2”, is in. First thing on his agenda, Paint closets 3 coats. Shuffle things around. Wait until late 2016, see what happens with American election. Hilary vs Trump. Trump wins could be interesting conversation for Trudeau2. Trump, “let’s talk about the Arctic”? Trudeau2,” let’s go for a smoke”. Trump “Your Fired”!

#126 blomainerw on 10.24.15 at 12:17 pm

#113 Ret on 10.24.15 at 11:16 am
#90 – Welfare is a lifestyle choice for far too many in Hamilton.

I have repeatedly have warned readers about RE in Hamilton. It is a value trap. Once better areas are in slow but steady decline which means that personal safety and schools are also not what they were just a few years ago.

The lower city is filled with large numbers of people on social assistance who strut around like they are on top of the world. Lots of $3500 scooters to make those beer store runs too. (Thanks Kathleen!)

Insurance rates for auto and home owners that reflect the true joy of living in a high crime rate city with increasing numbers of incidents involving drugs, hookers, guns and stabbings.

The highest property taxes in Ontario and zilch by-law and enforcement round out the picture.”

Sorry but Hamilton has always been dogy since the 60s or so…anyone remember the Barton street gang terrorizing people in the 70s????

#127 pinstripe on 10.24.15 at 12:17 pm

the coffee shop has been very vocal since the election. The daggers are starting to be thrown about. The locals are determined to swing back to the rule of the PCs because the harpo CPC is a total failure. the fear mongering and pitting one group, public vs private, against the other is unbelievable. there are some deep wounds and the bitterness is expanding. harpo has betrayed many Canadians. harpo forced many Canadians to lose trust and confidence in government.

the hope now is that Justin will recognize the effects of harpos policies and avoid that route at all cost.

#128 Arfmooocat on 10.24.15 at 12:18 pm

#64 Freedom First on 10.23.15 at 10:08 pm
#34 Arfmooocat

Garth has already covered what is really happening in the Alberta RE market. This Blog is about revealing the truth. Work harder.

Alberta is in a $hitstorm. And it is in its early stages.

…………………………………………………………………

You obviously can’t see the sarcasm

#129 Rapier Wit on 10.24.15 at 12:53 pm

Looks like this couple failed GreaterFool 101. And, I have to admit that I find the analysis unconvincing.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/retirement/retire-housing/can-this-couple-save-enough-for-retirement-after-buying-a-home/article26960068/

#130 Wild Roasted Nutz on 10.24.15 at 12:57 pm

According to the commie leaning Guardian… there are too many old white guys riding a Harley!!… job cuts on the way… millennials ain’t buying.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/oct/24/harley-davidson-brand-revenue-loss-easy-rider-image

#131 Catalyst on 10.24.15 at 1:23 pm

Sooo at the end of 25 years in Kay’s analysis the cost of ownership was $50K. How much was spent on rent for the last 25 years?

#132 Shrivelled Nutz on 10.24.15 at 1:38 pm

Yeah baby, debt til you drop. We’ll soon catch up with Ontario and Quebec.

Debt til the end of time. Klein 2.0 in 4 years

http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/ndp-to-table-largest-deficit-budget-in-alberta-history-on-tuesday

#133 Herb on 10.24.15 at 1:39 pm

“Enjoy your NDP deficit”. (Garth to 800MRK at #104)

What you must remember, 800MRK, is that provincial deficits, as well as potential federal ones, have nothing to do with economic circumstances, such as recessions, a shrinking manufacturing base, the price of oil and other commodities, or lack of tax revenue due to the foregoing.

Just look to Alberta, where a socialist party has been in power for six months and will manage to accumulate the horrendous deficit to be announced shortly. Such deficits are due solely to the failed doctrine of socialism that malicious or misguided Dippers keep trying to impose on unsuspecting Canadians.

Stick to the true ideology of taking care of business, and everything will be alright.

#134 Alberta Ed on 10.24.15 at 1:45 pm

There are 20+ townhouses, about 15 brand new (the others have been on and off the market all summer), for sale in four blocks in the development in Cochrane where we rent, plus four unfinished foundations. The sales office down the street has been closed for several days, no realtors to be seen, and the sign with the balloons advertising units for sale that has been sitting down at the corner has disappeared.

#135 NoName on 10.24.15 at 1:48 pm

@TN

43,522,454,000 liters (gros gas and diesel @ road rate)
21,7B in tax collected (if I got math right) based on
1$/Liter.

http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26?lang=eng&retrLang=eng&id=4050002&&pattern=&stByVal=1&p1=1&p2=37&tabMode=dataTable&csid=

taxation without representation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hy37hjPUFWo

#136 For those about to flop... on 10.24.15 at 1:55 pm

About 7 years ago I bought a Camperized Van for $13k ,a new version of mine runs you close to 100k.
It is the only vehicle I own .To get my monies worth I drive it to work everyday and when I want to vacation in it I simply switch out my work tools and put in my camping gear ,which takes about 2 hours.
Another advantage of living like this is I don’t have 2 insurances,storage fees and I park it right outside I live to keep an eye on it .( motor homes are magnets for thieves).
It is over height so sometimes I can’t park in parkades but this also stops me from being stupid and buying an overpriced condo.
R.v.ing is a life style ,you can spend 5k on a clunker or 1m on a truly mobile home. The choice is yours but the feeling of freedom is priceless.

#137 Kreditanstalt on 10.24.15 at 2:04 pm

Reading the headlines – and the topics covered – in the Globe & Mail or Vancouver Sun would make one think Canada is in the midst of a boom.

“EVERYTHING IS AWESOME!!!!!”

SOME people, many of them your neighbours, have been doing well since well before 2007-2008 and these people love this economy.

But not so good for the rest of us. Or for the Conservatives…

#138 conan on 10.24.15 at 2:21 pm

”The first thing we do is bring in the drama teacher.” — Wm. Shakespeare, Henry VI Part II

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYGy5eu3B1M

#139 Bottoms_Up on 10.24.15 at 2:35 pm

#123 Doug in London on 10.24.15 at 12:01 pm
——————————-
I don’t buy the argument that low rates should be used to pay off debt. Wouldn’t the reverse situation make more sense (pay off debts when rates are high, to avoid accumulation of interest charges?). So it’s somewhat of a misleading statement, might as well just say pay off debt if you have it.

#140 Doug in London on 10.24.15 at 3:24 pm

@Bottoms_Up, post #139:
I probably should have worded my comment to say pay down debts WHILE interest rates are low because, surprise surprise, the amount of interest being paid out of YOUR pocket will be less while interest rates are low. If you’ve been following this blog for anything more than a week, you might actually get the impression these low rates are an anomaly and may not last forever. Use these low interest rates wisely, while they last. The one exception, as I said above, is using these low rates to buy investments that are on sale, and thus have a yield higher than the interest you are paying to buy them but don’t overdo it. You don’t want to get caught with a margin call. Myself, for the most part I think debt is a 4 letter word.

#141 Rexx Rock on 10.24.15 at 3:38 pm

To live in a socialist country you have to think like a socialist.Canada needs affordable housing.What you”ll see in Canadian big cities are 2 and 3 bedroom condos for sale for about $200,000.These condos will be for middle and low income families.The mortgage will be for 2% for 25 years.At the end of the term you will own it but if you decide to move on our divorce than you’ll get whatever that is you paid off the mortgage.There will be a waiting list so no losses will be incurred.Drastic measures for drastic times.This will surely come to pass in some sort of way.Its already happening in Langford B.C.

#142 Mark on 10.24.15 at 3:45 pm

“So Trollboy, either your are too stupid to realize your error or you are just hoping that Mark comes out and plays with you cause you miss him, and no one else will play with you.”

There’s no denying that high end real estate has/is doing well in the GTA. And the GVR. The real issue is that what appears in the newspapers’ hype, is not a statistically relevant representative sample of the entire city/region in question. Therefore, to draw conclusions based on such could lead the owner of an ‘average’ house to some extremely erroneous conclusions as to the price or potential sales prospects of his/her individual house.

Ross Kay has some interesting interviews where he discusses the sales mix, his theory of the so-called ‘sales chain’, etc. on the howestreet.com audio interviews. I don’t agree with 100% of what he says, but he has some good theories and good practical insight as a long-time participant in the transactional side of the real estate market.

#143 Kreditanstalt on 10.24.15 at 3:51 pm

“Left with” $1500/mo. to live on…???

Many of us don’t MAKE $1500/mo.

There are more and more and more people effectively dropping out of the ‘work-earn-pay taxes-consume” money economy living paycheck to paycheck, government check to government check, borrowing for consumption or consuming their savings.

But don’t expect ‘government statistics’ to measure this or even to recognize it.

I’ve been reading Barry Broadfoot’s 1973 book “Ten Lost Years 1929-39”, about The Depression in Canada, and it sounds eerily like what I think’s coming in the next few years.

#144 Freedom First on 10.24.15 at 4:17 pm

#128 Arfmoocat

No. But I have seen all your Posts. Troll.

#145 Freedom First on 10.24.15 at 4:22 pm

#142 Mark

I like the work that Ross Kay is doing. However, Mark, I find you tiresome.

#146 Freedom First on 10.24.15 at 4:24 pm

#141 Rexx Rock

Huh? Are you drunk?

#147 Freedom First on 10.24.15 at 4:30 pm

#139 Bottoms Up

Low rates. High rates. When most Canadians had high rates they lacked cash flow. Now Canadians have low rates and they lack cash flow.

Think.

#148 Leo Trollstoy on 10.24.15 at 4:34 pm

Effectively trolling multiple people with a single post.

I’m living up to my namesake.

This is too easy.

Or I’m just tooooo good!

Lol

#149 Freedom First on 10.24.15 at 4:46 pm

I wouldn’t live in a trailer park, or a trailer on a piece of land. Neither would I buy a RV of any kind. Too many reasons for both, but I will give a few: 1) bad investments/high overhead 2) too much driving 3) trailer park trash 4) I like my freedom and those are nothing but a myriad of problems/headaches

#150 Smoking Man on 10.24.15 at 5:16 pm

What a crapy day….the little voice between the ears said head to falls…cross the bridge.

And I listened…

Bonus, 2 row seats to see some
Comedian. I should be good and smashed by then.

Im due for a good drunk. Only time I feel like posting.

#151 Nora Lenderby on 10.24.15 at 5:25 pm

#91 crossbordershopper on 10.24.15 at 6:24 am
…my financial advice, dont work. dont get caught in the consumerism world. its a drug, you will never have enough stuff they try to sell you and you will die litterly trying to make enough money to buy it. you dont need it. live simple, happy and comfortable.

I have friends and acquaintances who live like this,
they mostly reside on boats – some in RVs (a little higher budget), some have both.

We lived for 2 years on a boat in a very modest style, travelled to Florida and back twice. Nice way to travel North America at about 5 m.p.h. (Old boats and RVs are quite inexpensive as long as one doesn’t get too elaborate with the outfitting.)

Here’s the transcript of a book written in 1932, that one could re-live today:
http://www.woodenwidget.com/milionaire.htm

Consider those times. People were fed up with “the system” then as well.

#152 kilby on 10.24.15 at 5:37 pm

I know a couple that are selling both their expensive Harley’s. Both have decent jobs but have decided they want something more practical for travelling on and also a bit quieter….keeping their horses.

#153 TurnerNation on 10.24.15 at 5:44 pm

14 foot wide semi in Leslieville! Bet it will go for 550k

http://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/16281600/155-COXWELL-AVE-Toronto-Ontario-M4L3B4-Greenwood-Coxwell

#154 Nora Lenderby on 10.24.15 at 5:49 pm

#149 Freedom First on 10.24.15 at 4:46 pm
wouldn’t buy an RV…
1) bad investments/high overhead

Depends upon the price and the running costs vs. personal enjoyment of the lifestyle and alternatives.

2) too much driving

Can’t argue with that (unless you stay in one place which somewhat defeats the object, imo.

3) trailer park trash

Ah, the fellow men (and women). You’d be surprised at the interesting and smart people I’ve met. Almost all of them are great people, and the others are dangers only to themselves. Random meetings with strangers is one of the good things about any kind of travel.

4) I like my freedom and those are nothing but a myriad of problems/headaches

Your choice, obviously. I prefer to have problems to solve and to address challenges. Sometimes it is difficult but I find adventure makes life more interesting.

#155 Nora Lenderby on 10.24.15 at 5:52 pm

#110 Lea on 10.24.15 at 11:10 am
Why would they put something as heavy as granite in something you have to use gas to move around? Wouldn’t it make sense to use the lightest materials?

They put marble/granite countertops in luxury boats as well, ffs. For the cognoscenti there is apparently no such thing as “roughing it”. These are rolling palaces. Although they do appear to be the last habitable spaces on Planet Earth using wall-to-wall carpeting in new contruction.

Do many people in Alberta actually put truck nutz on their trucks?

I can’t say, I had my niqab on backwards the entire time ;-)

#156 Broke Dick on 10.24.15 at 6:02 pm

#148 Leo Trollstoy on 10.24.15 at 4:34 pm
Effectively trolling multiple people with a single post.

I’m living up to my namesake.

This is too easy.

Or I’m just tooooo good!

Lol

============================
It’s just that you have no life outside of these bubbles.
You remind me of the Rodney Dangerfield joke about the kid no one liked. The parents had to tie a steak around the kid’s neck just so the dog would play with it.

Even Mark has more friends than you.

#157 For those about to flop... on 10.24.15 at 6:05 pm

O.k ,since there seams to be a lot of negative energy on here I will try to say something positive .
I just checked my TFSA and I am back to even for the year which whilst nothing to write home about given the tumultuous year I’m calling that a win.
I only opened my TFSA in December last year so I missed out on the gains of 12/13/14. But I hung in there and kept topping it up until it was maxed and invested .
Things don’t look too bright a the moment but I have a long window and so will slowly build it up.
I have a portfolio in Australia as well that I did get some double digit returns in recent years.
Also something else on the positive side was I found out the other day when I was 16/17 years old I paid couple of grand into an enforced retirement fund but had forgot about it until I found out it had grown to 22k after 25 years . I was going to remove this money but it got 13% last year so maybe one day it will be worth 50 k and I can buy a second hand Motorhome.
It’s nice to have some achievable dreams.
Also the other day Nora you called me a smart man,you are mistaken.

#158 Broke Dick on 10.24.15 at 6:10 pm

DELETED

#159 jess on 10.24.15 at 6:26 pm

15k grant money for down payment on a home …

Wells Fargo’s Master Spin Job
Reporters and politicians are lining up to congratulate Wells Fargo for its multimillion-dollar neighborhood grant program – but they’re leaving out one small detail
By Matt Taibbi October 2, 2015

Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/wells-fargos-master-spin-job-20151002#ixzz3pWgZd2AY

===================
Of Course Wells Fargo Is Helping St. Louis Homebuyers. Legally, It Has To
Posted By Nicholas Phillips on Thu, Sep 3, 2015 at 6:00 AM

#160 kommykim on 10.24.15 at 6:44 pm

RE:

#100 CalgaryCarGuy on 10.24.15 at 9:44 am
Do you have a CO alarm?
—————————————————————–I do but you are obviously not understanding the concept. The byproducts of combustion never enter the coach.

Yes, they are not supposed to. But with any heat exchanger there is a risk of CO from the combustion process getting into the air if there is a leak in the combustion chamber. Now, your “sand heat battery” will mitigate this risk, but without seeing the actual setup myself, I figured I’d give you a heads up.

#161 kommykim on 10.24.15 at 6:49 pm

Justin Trudeau is a renter. He’s “just not ready” to buy.

#162 Mark on 10.24.15 at 7:14 pm

“Consider those times. People were fed up with “the system” then as well.”

Poor people usually denounce the perks of the rich. Until they become rich themselves.

Then its full steam ahead on getting richer for even more perks!

I almost think some times that Canadian “DNA” is programmed to want to be poor. There’s few other explanations as to why Canadians consistently vote for governments with the stated intention of making people poor. There’s little other explanation as to why Canadians dump all their money into RE with incredibly poor implied returns, making them poorer. Its an entire mindset against wealth creation that seems to have infected a large number of Canadians in the choices they make each and every day.

Its almost never been easier than ever in Canada to become wealthy. Merely don’t own housing, and if you have a few extra bucks lying around, put them into cheap inversely correlated investments. $200k in a margin account levered up can easily generate the net equivalent of $100k of wage-slave tax farm income.

#163 Smoking Man on 10.24.15 at 7:35 pm

I’m so smart… Geo politics figured out on my third glass tonight.

Im starting to have a lot more respect for Obama. He’s tired of being dictated by NutAndYahoo..lets face it, look what the silent majority just did to good old Harpo.
They said, sign me up to pay more taxes, and screw the the bullying of the weak.

World has changed..MSM has been Ubered by the web.

Everybody knows the Captin lied.

He’s letting Russia do the dirty work. Playing stupid. Apac is royaly pissed. NutandYahoo in a tizzy.

Perhaps it time to play nice you Nut. You ever ask yourself why Palestinians, especially the youth are so retarted as to stab cops knowing the result is certain death.

The bully on the beach kicking sand in peoples faces now has to face Putin while Obama has turned his back.

Love It.

Dr Smoking Man
Phd in Gonzo Herdonomics.

#164 Herb on 10.24.15 at 7:39 pm

#132 Shrivelled Nutz,

citing from your Calgary Heraldlink,

Finance Minister Joe Ceci hinted this week the deficit will be just shy of $6.5 billion — nearly $1.5 billion more than Prentice forecast last March in a budget that was never passed.

Non-renewable resource revenue was projected to fall from $8.9 billion to $3.6 billion this year and income tax revenue was expected to tumble with it. …

“The implications of this unattractive fiscal situation are obvious,” noted author Melville McMillan, professor emeritus and fellow of the University of Alberta’s Institute for Public Economics. “Albertans will be faced with significant cuts to provincial public services or they will face higher taxes.”

What does that article prove, except that there will be a shortfall, that this might be greater than the one forecast by the Prentice Government, and that the new (or any) government’s choice is to gore someone’s ox on the service side, or to gore someone else’s ox by raising revenue/taxes?

How about taking a breath and waiting for the “socialist” budget to see whose ox they propose to gore to save or sink Alberta?

#165 Ronaldo on 10.24.15 at 8:02 pm

#143 Kreditanstalt on 10.24.15 at 3:51 pm

”I’ve been reading Barry Broadfoot’s 1973 book “Ten Lost Years 1929-39”, about The Depression in Canada, and it sounds eerily like what I think’s coming in the next few years.”

First of all, you cannot compare those times to current times. Back then 85% of the people lived on farms and were pretty much self sufficient like my grandparents and my parents. There wasn’t much money but they had plenty of food and other necessities of life. The 15% who lived in the towns and cities with no jobs, that is a different story. Today, those percentages are reversed so you can imagine how things would be if we didn’t have the social safety nets that we have today. EI, social security, medical, etc. Back in those times I believe that the unemployment rate was around 25% and that would not have included those living on farms. Imagine that same unemployment rate today when 85% live in the towns and cities and 15% on the farms.

#166 CalgaryCarGuy on 10.24.15 at 8:25 pm

Re #161 kommykim
Yes, they are not supposed to. But with any heat exchanger there is a risk of CO from the combustion process getting into the air if there is a leak in the combustion chamber. Now, your “sand heat battery” will mitigate this risk, but without seeing the actual setup myself, I figured I’d give you a heads up.
——————————————————————
Thanks for your concern. It’s ok. A friend of mine didn’t understand it either until he saw it. Then he got it. The wood stove still has a chimney—a tall one–taller than my coach. All the combustion goes up and out the chimney. Hot sand is just that–hot sand. After the fire is out the sand will keep it’s heat for days.
——————————————————————
Re/ #149 Freedom First
Of course there are maintenance and repair costs involved in owning a large complicated RV such as the one I have. It’s expected. I believe that they are less than owning a house over the long run though. Also I pay no property taxes. I live in it by myself on 112 acres of wilderness land. It is a million dollar property that I rent for 500.00 a month. I often see wildlife right outside my window. It is a very quiet, secluded lifestyle and it is a welcome relief from my very busy customer retail job in the city. After almost forty years spent in customer service I have learned a great deal about people. First and foremost–Everybody is different. Each has their own ideas of freedom, enjoyment, and desires. These differences are what make life (and my job) so interesting. You may not like the lifestyle I live and love and that is perfectly ok. To each their own.

#167 Paul on 10.24.15 at 8:28 pm

#154 TurnerNation on 10.24.15 at 5:44 pm

14 foot wide semi in Leslieville! Bet it will go for 550k

http://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/16281600/155-COXWELL-AVE-Toronto-Ontario-M4L3B4-Greenwood-Coxwell
———————————————————-Leslie Ville??
Garth after you living in Leslie Ville are you going to let him get away with that?
Coxwell and Queen lol

#168 RayofLight on 10.24.15 at 8:37 pm

I saw on program on the Science Channel that stated globally, cattle are hastening global warming more than autos & trucks. Methane is somewhere between 10-15 times more efficient than CO2 at global warming. Each of the approx. 1Bln (yes, with a B) cows produce about 500 L of methane/day, and this amount methane is worse than the CO2 from global cars and trucks. Maybe the tree huggers should picket the farms and not the pipelines . Becoming more vegetarian can be easier on your health , and the environment.

#169 Suede on 10.24.15 at 8:48 pm

If you plot a chart…

of how many times i read GreaterFool.ca over the years vs the price of real estate in Vancouver over the years…

You will see a direct correlation of more reads = higher prices.

Data is data.

#170 Ralph Cramdown on 10.24.15 at 8:54 pm

#143 Kreditanstalt — “There are more and more and more people effectively dropping out of the ‘work-earn-pay taxes-consume” money economy […]”

To take a broader view, about two billion people have recently graduated INTO the money/consumer economy from the subsistence economy those peoples were living in before. It was only a few decades ago that famine and mass starvation occurred regularly, and we in the west were subjected to images of emaciated, fly encrusted children with a soundtrack of sanctimonious pop musicians.

It is, in some ways, a testament to the living standards of the “middle class” 2/3 of the population that some people can (by choice or otherwise) live so far below that level and still keep body and soul together.

Here’s some interesting, germane reading:
https://www.marxists.org/reference/subject/economics/keynes/1930/our-grandchildren.htm

P.S. I don’t hang out at Marxist sites (Not that there’s anything Wrong with that…), it was just the first link that showed up when I googled for the essay.

#171 Freedom First on 10.24.15 at 9:09 pm

#155 Nora Lenderby

I only want to own things that pay me to own them. Plus, I want to be paid for anything I do, or I do things I enjoy that cost me nothing to do. Creativity is worth its weight in gold. It is sorely lacking today. Look at the debt levels. There is 0 reason for that craziness. Insanity reigns. It is the reason Garth signs off some of his Blogs with “why do I bother”.

Keep in mind Nora, people in my life tell me I am too generous. I am here to help. Of course, me first. This is not rocket science.

#172 Smoking Man on 10.24.15 at 9:19 pm

I love it, my little waitress reserving my booth. 4 buck a tip is all thats needed for god status.

Sad…

#173 Smoking Man on 10.24.15 at 9:21 pm

Mind you, 4 times 20 adds up…

#174 Freedom First on 10.24.15 at 9:23 pm

#167 CalgaryCarGuy

Yes, you love your lifestyle, and that is very very good. Personally, I don’t want to pay for, or look after, anything.

40 years customer service. People complaining. You are an angel. I work from home going on 7 years. Before that I had a company vehicle, worked in the field, and was known as “Boss”. I live by “never complain”, and “never explain”. Our host and a few of the dawgs are like that. 0 dippers are like that. Entitled whiners.

#175 Smoking Man on 10.24.15 at 9:28 pm

If any of you bastards what to know the booth at stir.

First one on Right side of the stage.. Just ask for a pino say you know Smokey… You will know what it feels like being a god.

#176 Smoking Man on 10.24.15 at 9:38 pm

DELETED

#177 Jaybee on 10.24.15 at 9:50 pm

This blog is great. A senior citizen is telling millennials to get off his lawn. I love the internet!

#178 Nora Lenderby on 10.24.15 at 9:51 pm

#158 For those about to flop… on 10.24.15 at 6:05 pm
It’s nice to have some achievable dreams.

That’s a good idea, otherwise they are fiction. Nothing wrong with that unless you take it seriously. That can get you killed. You could write a book though. Hmm…

Also the other day Nora you called me a smart man,you are mistaken.

I don’t make mistakes (well, unless you count the time…and the time…and that other time, OK, hardly ever) unless you don’t accept the epithet “man” :-)

…but you could try subscribing to Smarter Every Day: he recently had a fascinating item about toilet swirl here and there:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDorTBEhEtk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ihv4f7VMeJw

#179 lee on 10.24.15 at 9:52 pm

Leo Trollstor,

Why don’t you go to that Willowdale neighbourhood and see what houses really sell for, how long they stay on the market and what the developers really make after agents fees, carrying costs, opportunity cost on their money, and of course don’t forget this is their job so factor in $120000 a year as the value of their time and about an eighteen month process. Most tear down builders will tell you they’d do better being tradesmen flogging their skills rather than building a house a year. Just agents fees on a 2.5 million dollar house is about $150000 with HST. And remember the profit is fully taxable. It’s not capital gain except any growth after you move in.

#180 BS on 10.24.15 at 10:00 pm

Today, those percentages are reversed so you can imagine how things would be if we didn’t have the social safety nets that we have today. EI, social security, medical, etc. Back in those times I believe that the unemployment rate was around 25% and that would not have included those living on farms. Imagine that same unemployment rate today when 85% live in the towns and cities and 15% on the farms.

No need to imagine. Greece currently has a 25% unemployment rate and Spain is at about 22%. Canada should look similar to those places in few years of Trudeauanomics.

#181 dodgedbullet on 10.24.15 at 10:07 pm

hey blog dogs… should I move my UK pension into CAD assets in Canada… I will have only worked 7 months this year so the taxman won’t want as big a chunk if I were to do it now… thoughts?

#182 Shrivelled Nutz on 10.24.15 at 10:13 pm

#165 Herb on 10.24.15 at 7:39 pm

#132 Shrivelled Nutz,

citing from your Calgary Heraldlink,

Finance Minister Joe Ceci hinted this week the deficit will be just shy of $6.5 billion — nearly $1.5 billion more than Prentice forecast last March in a budget that was never passed.

Non-renewable resource revenue was projected to fall from $8.9 billion to $3.6 billion this year and income tax revenue was expected to tumble with it. …

“The implications of this unattractive fiscal situation are obvious,” noted author Melville McMillan, professor emeritus and fellow of the University of Alberta’s Institute for Public Economics. “Albertans will be faced with significant cuts to provincial public services or they will face higher taxes.”

What does that article prove, except that there will be a shortfall, that this might be greater than the one forecast by the Prentice Government, and that the new (or any) government’s choice is to gore someone’s ox on the service side, or to gore someone else’s ox by raising revenue/taxes?

How about taking a breath and waiting for the “socialist” budget to see whose ox they propose to gore to save or sink Alberta?
—————————
Hey Herb, spark one up dude and breath deeply… it’s all we got left.

#183 for the record on 10.24.15 at 10:19 pm

#65 young & foolish on 10.23.15 at 10:15 pm

So, tapped out consumers, sub-prime loans, falling sales volumes …. economy’s in trouble. Canadian banks under increasing shorting pressure.

The banks are fine. — Garth

Time will tell.

But they can always start to charge for savings deposits.

http://www.businessinsider.com/banks-discussing-negative-interest-rates-for-consumers-2015-10

#184 Leo Trollstoy on 10.24.15 at 11:26 pm

For those looking to buy a house in the RED HOT Toronto real estate market, this blogger answers a reader’s questions:

http://canadianbudgetbinder.com/2015/10/22/buy-the-least-expensive-house-in-the-most-expensive-neighbourhood/

As the Toronto Star correctly noticed, the median home price is increasing rapidly as developers pile in alongside regular Joe buyers to bid up prices.

This creates an unsustainable increase across the sales mix as both median home prices increase from the buying activity of developers, who then flip and sell at prices at the high end as well.

When Toronto real estate reverses its current trend of price increases, the decline will be felt for years.

#185 Hallelujah on 10.24.15 at 11:42 pm

#177 Smoking Man on 10.24.15 at 9:38 pm

DELETED
————————–
Yeah baby, who luvs ya. Ladies of the night make ya see god.

#186 Washed Up Lawyer on 10.24.15 at 11:43 pm

A bright spot on the upcoming budget in Alberta.

OK. About a $45 billion spend. $19 to $20 billion on health care. Another $9.5 billion on education.

$6 to $8 billion deficit.

But, lowered health costs due to the eradication of Harper Derangement Syndrome with the vaccination we received this past Monday.

That is about a billion saved on hospital visits. Thanks to you voters elsewhere in Canada. You saved us a bundle.

#187 For those about to flop... on 10.24.15 at 11:53 pm

Nora, stop calling me man ,man!

#188 Smoking Mans Wife on 10.24.15 at 11:57 pm

Hey Smoking Man, stop drinking wine and trying impress waitresses at the Casino. Your a toothless pathetic old fart. Now get your sorry ass back to bed before I come tell everyone you wear depends.

#189 Nagraj on 10.25.15 at 12:06 am

The Harpers at breakfast.

They eat silently. Harpo’s having his usual black coffee, dry toast, and bowl of sugar-frosted thumbtacks.

Laureeny’s having her Saag Paneer.
(She latched onto Saag Paneer in Brampton where she danced.) (In case you don’t know what Saag Paneer is, it’s a kind of rich deep-green spinach soup with little white home-made cheese balls in it.) (Of course the pro bikes&babes paternal centrists on this blog eat their spinach right outa the can like Popeye while riding their crotch machines – ) (When I eats me spinitch I rides to the finitch – )

SUDDENLY Bluto (or Pluto or Harpo) notices that Laureeny is googlin’ sumpin on her laptop. She tells him that just as she was lookin’ at him slurp his thumbtacks, for no reason at all the strange words “frumious bandersnatch” popped into her head.

LATER, Old Stock In The Mud asks if she found what she was lookin’ for. Kindly lying through her teeth she says, “No, I didn’t.”
[She also omits mention of the fact that she was also checkin’ out JT’s Bhangra dancin’ moves on youtube.]

[In case you don’t know what a paternal centrist is, it’s some old hick geezer what doesn’t understand why JT said “I’m proud to be a feminist”, a remark as calculated as it was smart and quite right, bang on, to win votes.]

#190 Smoking Man on 10.25.15 at 12:12 am

On a good drunk.

I love this dude
https://youtu.be/_Jtpf8N5IDE

#191 Ralph Cramdown on 10.25.15 at 12:15 am

#181 BS — “No need to imagine. Greece currently has a 25% unemployment rate and Spain is at about 22%. Canada should look similar to those places in few years of Trudeauanomics.”

One thing I find amazing about macroeconomics is that EVERYBODY has an opinion. If this were a blog about brain surgery or gene splicing, few people ignorant in the field would bother commenting. Not macroeconomics, though.

Macroeconomics is hard. It is difficult to do live experiments, because it is widely believed that purposely screwing with some people’s economic lives and comparing the outcomes to a control group is unethical (and pretty much unpalatable to the politicians). So conclusions need to be drawn from observations alone, such as when one society changes economic policy, and can be compared to a similar economy that didn’t. In that respect, the last decade or so has given us lots of stuff to observe, as developed world governments in various states of cluelessness have fiddled with the knobs affecting their economies. But for people like us to learn anything from this, a lot of reading and study is required. Or just continue to go with your partisan, ill-informed gut.

#192 Smoking Man on 10.25.15 at 12:18 am

https://youtu.be/kijpcUv-b8M

#193 Smoking Man on 10.25.15 at 12:54 am

WhyJFK got Shot
https://youtu.be/dpWEv9Q0XQ4

#194 Jas on 10.25.15 at 1:07 am

Friends:
If you want to buy RE or invest in Stock market, use your own common sense, You can take the view of experts in your decision BUT never ever let the ‘expert view’ stop you in you tracks.

Take their view with not even with ‘a pound of salt’, let alone a pinch.

Experts are OFTEN WRONG with their ‘EXPERT OPINON’

#195 Mark on 10.25.15 at 1:37 am

“As the Toronto Star correctly noticed, the median home price is increasing rapidly as developers pile in alongside regular Joe buyers to bid up prices. “

Careful Troll. Just because the median *transactional* price has changed so much, doesn’t mean that median *home* price has changed. Only a small number of houses change hands within the overall housing stock per year, and whether that sampling of houses is statistically representative, and to what degree, also changes.

Its the divergence between the mean and median which should be carefully watched, so as to determine whether the sampling itself has changed (ie: the sales mix), or not. Evidence is significant that the GTA/GVR transactional mixes are increasingly dominated by new units (as opposed to resale units), and by higher end properties versus lower-end. Hence, the changes to the sales mix itself have given the allusion of rising prices in a market which has clearly decelerated dramatically since its 2013 apex.

#196 Mark on 10.25.15 at 1:43 am

“But they can always start to charge for savings deposits.”

Don’t they already? But on that note, hyperinflation and deflation start to look awfully similar — people start to lose confidence in the system and significantly reduce their lending in both a negative interest rate environment (why lend at negative interest??), and a high interest rate environment (why lend into a strong inflation environment instead of investing in hard assets??). This is why gold is so misunderstood — people want to think of gold as being either an inflation hedge, or either an deflation hedge, but in reality, it acts as both. Particularly as a hedge against what is more broadly known as “monetary instability” which can best be described as a lack of confidence.

The 1930s was deflation. The 1970s was inflation. The 2010s…. Looks to be deflation. See a pattern?

#197 Leo Trollstoy on 10.25.15 at 4:05 am

I have a power.

A siren call that is irresistible to the unenlightened.

I call. They come. And get rekt.

I will use it to save the world.

Easy as pie.

Lol

You’re welcome.

#198 Julia on 10.25.15 at 7:48 am

#99 early bird
“Is your qualifying amount for mortages calculated before tax? (can’t remember) if so…wouldn’t that make the tdsr and gdsr a hell of a lot higher of a percentage? anyone?”

Income used is gross.

#199 maxx on 10.25.15 at 7:50 am

#14 Ken on 10.23.15 at 6:49 pm

“Real Inflation is running at 7% the CPI numbers are cooked. Maybe no one at the Bank of Canada buys Groceries, Electricity, Medical, Car Insurance along with a whole list of other essential items. Note the 7% I quoted comes straight from of a friend of mine who has had a masters political science for 35 years. 1% is almost laughable”

Agreed. That bs is just an excuse to force and keep rates destructively lower.

#200 Julia on 10.25.15 at 7:50 am

#154 TurnerNation
“14 foot wide semi in Leslieville! Bet it will go for 550k”

I bet it will be even more than that. You can’t get in for less than $750k for a semi in the most sought after neighbourhoods so areas like Leslieville are the next in demand areas.

#201 Rational Optimist on 10.25.15 at 9:05 am

113 Ret on 10.24.15 at 11:16 am

“The highest property taxes in Ontario and zilch by-law and enforcement round out the picture.”

This is an important point that people can’t grasp until they actually live in Hamilton for a while. The same people who are happy to milk social services are for some reason loathe to have the municipality enforce standards that are taken for granted in other cities, because they think government “should mind its own business [shoveling money to me].”

I guess these are all paradoxical symptoms of the residents’ general entitlement issues- they are entitled to government handouts, but they are also entitled not to maintain their properties to any standard, or to break whatever rule that pops into their heads.

Long term, bad idea. Taxes will only go up; services will probably be about as poor as they are now; and, yes, most neighbourhoods will struggle.

#202 liquidincalgary on 10.25.15 at 9:46 am

RayofLight on 10.24.15 at 8:37 pm

I saw on program on the Science Channel that stated globally, cattle are hastening global warming more than autos & trucks. Methane is somewhere between 10-15 times more efficient than CO2 at global warming. Each of the approx. 1Bln (yes, with a B) cows produce about 500 L of methane/day, and this amount methane is worse than the CO2 from global cars and trucks. Maybe the tree huggers should picket the farms and not the pipelines . Becoming more vegetarian can be easier on your health , and the environment.

=========================================

now playing on Netflix: Cowspiracy. great documentary about the true effect of animal agriculture on GHG’s

#203 Nora Lenderby on 10.25.15 at 10:17 am

#188 For those about to flop… on 10.24.15 at 11:53 pm
Nora, stop calling me man ,man!

I was brought up to believe that man was a shorter version of the word person. I accept the description myself, but then I am an antique feminist who believes in universal sufferage.

Some of my best friends are men :-)

#204 Nora Lenderby on 10.25.15 at 10:45 am

#204 Nora Lenderby on 10.25.15 at 10:17 am
sufferage suffrage.

lol, isn’t English fabulous?

#205 what rate hike? on 10.25.15 at 11:04 am

http://www.businessinsider.com/hsbc-global-investment-seminar-2015-2015-10

#206 For those about to flop... on 10.25.15 at 11:13 am

#204 Nora Lenderby on 10.25.15 at 10:17 am
#188 For those about to flop… on 10.24.15 at 11:53 pm
Nora, stop calling me man ,man!

I was brought up to believe that man was a shorter version of the word person. I accept the description myself, but then I am an antique feminist who believes in universal sufferage.

Some of my best friends are men :-)

#205 Nora Lenderby on 10.25.15 at 10:45 am
#204 Nora Lenderby on 10.25.15 at 10:17 am
sufferage suffrage.

lol, isn’t English fabulous?
//////////////////////////////////////////////

I was only joking ,and you are only outwitting yourself.
My money is on you to win in the end.

#207 fake on 10.25.15 at 11:15 am

#198 Leo Trollstoy on 10.25.15 at 4:05 am

I have a power.

A siren call that is irresistible to the unenlightened.

I call. They come. And get rekt.

I will use it to save the world.

Easy as pie.

Lol

You’re welcome.

You are a fake.

Lol

You’re welcome.

#208 Vampire studies GMST 454 on 10.25.15 at 11:23 am

166 Ronaldo – Though I agree with the trend, I believe your percentages are out of whack. This article is for the US. I tried to find some stats for Canada but got nothing as concise as this summary.

http://www.nytimes.com/1988/07/20/us/farm-
population-lowest-since-1850-s.html

farm pop was around 30% during the depression in the states. There are some difficulties in the analysis though. My grandfather was a good example. Though my Dads family owned a small farm and were therefore well-fed, my GP still had a job in a mine.

#209 Debtberta on 10.25.15 at 11:42 am

Debt til the end of time. Triple DDD douse of it.

Thou shalt Diversify yer economy – poof done.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/gary+lamphier+taxpayers+warned+word+back/11463550/story.html

First though, a gazillion dollar Deficit.

http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/ndp-to-table-largest-deficit-budget-in-alberta-history-on-tuesday

Meanwhile, oil remains in the Doldrums for many a year.

http://calgaryherald.com/business/energy/oilpatch-firms-in-for-an-ugly-third-quarter-as-crude-doldrums-linger

All delivered by a finance minister who looks like he’s from Mad magazine.

#210 ESL on 10.25.15 at 12:04 pm

#205 Nora Lenderby on 10.25.15 at 10:45 am

#204 Nora Lenderby on 10.25.15 at 10:17 am
sufferage suffrage.

lol, isn’t English fabulous?

—-

I have to look them up in the dictionary first… I might be familiar with the first, the other one looks fancier and and more classy just by the looks.

#211 pinstripe on 10.25.15 at 12:11 pm

There is a reason why there so much energy devoted to educate the masses?

When someone has financial success in whatever they are doing, why would that someone share the secret recipe to the financial success? It just doesn’t make sense.

OTOH, when there is the potential that the someone will make additional financial gain to their success then it makes sense to throw out bits and pieces of the (secret) recipe to the masses. That is what advertising is all about.

When someone asks me what they should do about a financial transaction, my answer is simple. When I have something to sell, I tell them to BUY. When I want to buy something, I tell them to SELL. When I have no desire to either buy or sell, I tell them that it doesn’t matter what they do.

In the real world, everything has a cycle. What is missed on the up cycle can be picked up on the down cycle, or not. regardless of all the advertising, Nothing is linear. NOTHING.

#212 Dan on 10.25.15 at 1:01 pm

Garth was right, and wrong at the same time. Apparently, interest rates are never rising, and stock markets are never crashing again.

Of course rates will rose. Of course markets will correct. But there has to be a reason for a ‘crash.’ There is none. — Garth

#213 For those about to flop... on 10.25.15 at 1:13 pm

#208 fake on 10.25.15 at 11:15 am
#198 Leo Trollstoy on 10.25.15 at 4:05 am

I have a power.

A siren call that is irresistible to the unenlightened.

I call. They come. And get rekt.

I will use it to save the world.

Easy as pie.

Lol

You’re welcome.

You are a fake.

Lol

You’re welcome.

///////////////////////////////////
I can’t be the only bozo on here that thinks that Leo Toilespray and FF are the same person ,can I?
They write the same sort of poop over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over…
You get the picture.

#214 kommykim on 10.25.15 at 1:16 pm

RE:

#197 Mark on 10.25.15 at 1:43 am
The 1930s was deflation. The 1970s was inflation. The 2010s…. Looks to be deflation. See a pattern?

No, three data points don’t make a pattern.

#215 Jacko McFarlane on 10.25.15 at 1:24 pm

The Alberta Budget will be a whopper. But…they will continue to borrow to raise and sustain the civil servants grossly overpaid lifestyle and pension schemes while average people suffer. Higher taxes, higher taxes, higher taxes…more spending on ‘social services’…..

if ‘social services were having any positive effect on hardship then the DTES in Vancouver would be blooming with daisies…instead of now having 265 ‘social agencies’ hunkered down in 6 sq blocks…all stuffed with hundreds of 100K p/a +++ civil servants….you’d think the Albertans had voted for Trudy….and Vancouvers poverty wasn’t fueled and supported by civil servants hanging on to thie jobs.

#216 Nora Lenderby on 10.25.15 at 2:07 pm

#212 pinstripe on 10.25.15 at 12:11 pm
There is a reason why there so much energy devoted to educate the masses?

“We must educate our masters.” Is the classic quote from Robert Lowe (a not-terribly-successful finance minister).

Basically if many ill-informed people make poor decisions that will ultimately affect our well-being, it is in our best interest to try to inform them.

Your comment implies that the best result is if you make a deal that only benefits you. Ultimately, the best result is if all parties to a deal think the deal is fair (even in retrospect). Then you can make another deal at a later time.

#217 Nora Lenderby on 10.25.15 at 2:27 pm

#190 Nagraj on 10.25.15 at 12:06 am

“Sugar-frosted thumbtacks”. Classic!

Saag paneer for breakfast? Ms Laureen might be onto something…Sunday dinner chez Lenderby is chana masala (with chicken because the gentleman of the house likes his meat…)

#218 M on 10.25.15 at 2:54 pm

Mark #197
Careful Troll. Just because the median *transactional* price has changed so much, doesn’t mean that median *home* price has changed. Only a small number of houses change hands within the overall housing stock per year, and whether that sampling of houses is statistically representative, and to what degree, also changes.
Its the divergence between the mean and median which should be carefully watched, so as to determine whether the sampling itself has changed (ie: the sales mix), or not. Evidence is significant that the GTA/GVR transactional mixes are increasingly dominated by new units (as opposed to resale units), and by higher end properties versus lower-end. Hence, the changes to the sales mix itself have given the allusion of rising prices in a market which has clearly decelerated dramatically since its 2013 apex.
Fascinating theory….but the reality is your wrong. Interesting how you spin an opinion to sound like a fact. The cool thing is you wrote two paragraphs without one fact to back up anything you stated.
Would be nice if you stopped calling other posters names, sounds petty!