Turkeys

MAZE modified

More long lineups at the 400 advance polls across the nation yesterday. People (like me) waited an eternity to scratch their X in a process that’s being overwhelmed. The better part of a million people voted on Friday alone, up from the last election by 26% and ahead of the one before that by a stunning 98%.

If that day’s any indication, 16% of all eligible voters in Canada may end up having chosen an advance poll. If the final voter turnout is similar to 2008 (61% – which I doubt), then almost a third of all voters couldn’t wait for October 19th.

What does this tell us?

Beats me, but an Elections Canada background paper on advance polling reached the conclusions that (a) advance voters tend to be older than those who wait for election day and (b) they’re more “motivated by an engagement in politics.” Layer over that the results of a bunch of polls, like one done by Ipsos in August showing two-thirds of voters think this election “is about change”, and Mr. Harper may not be too hungry as he stares at his Thanksgiving dinner tomorrow night.

Speaking of turkeys, there’s new evidence about how many foreign Chinese buyers are gobbling up BC real estate. It comes on the heels of remarks by premier Christy Clark that it’s probably unwise to blame Hot Asian Money for Vancouver real estate being the most expensive in North America. Clark says her government’s “rough estimate” of the number of foreign investors is 4% or 5%, and most of the deals they’re doing are concentrated in a small area – that rarified, carrot-up-your-butt hood known as the Westside.

As we all know, this has turned into an election issue, with the Cons and Libs both vowing to analyze the origins of buyers and then take action, if necessary. Said Stephen Harper a few weeks ago: “If such foreign ownership non-resident buyers are artificially driving up the cost of real estate and Canadian families are shut out of the market, that is a matter we can and should do something about.”

Well, we actually already know this isn’t the case. The BC Real Estate Association says phooey, that foreigner investors account for about only 5% of transactions. The Victoria Real Estate Board, which actually surveys its members, puts the number of non-Canadians in that market at 1.6%. And as blog dog Sunni points out, at least one North Van realtor has published new data from the YVR board showing the number of foreign investors over the past year doubled – from 1.9% to 4%. Wow.

Here’s the full report:

VAN STATS

As you can see, 90.3% of all buyers in the Vancouver area came from BC. Another 4% were refugees from Canada. So a relative handful either emigrated from outside the country or were foreign investors. Of course, this won’t stop the squawking and wailing among those who need something other than their own house lust to blame for high prices in the Lower Mainland. They’ll continue to argue that when rich Chinese zillionaires buy mansions all the regular people suffer the trickle-downs, or that a lot of “BC residents” are really just relatives of wealthy foreigners. Some of that may be true. But evidence of a wholesale invasion simply does not exist. And soon the taxpayers of Canada will have spent many new millions to prove it.

By the way. Christy Clark is correct to lay more blame for stupid prices on low interest rates than voracious Chinese. But in the same breath she proposes raising taxes on high-end homes so first-time buyers can be subsidized. Yes, that will certainly take more pressure off the market. Not.

Finally, while we’re talking about delusional Wet Coasters, here’s Kijiji-reading Elaine in Van. “If you ever thought rents were not in line with housing costs in Vancouver, here is a perfect example. Rent this house for $2900 a month, or buy for $1,500,000. Mortgage = $6000 a month, or you can rent for $3000 less. Nice neighbourhood, we live a few blocks away in a house that’s assessed at about a million, and our rent is $2k. Still not the time to buy is it?”

Nope. It ain’t. BTW, here’s the house:

VAN RENTAL

I just hope all those people jamming advance polls in Vancouver this weekend don’t think casting their vote for anyone is going to impact the price of real estate. As this pathetic blog has indicated, every major party leader has turned into a housing pimp during the course of this campaign. They’re all merchants of debt.

The election’s fascinating, but it reminds me of a bidding war. Nobody wins.

202 comments ↓

#1 Gobble Gobble on 10.11.15 at 5:44 pm

vote early and vote often.

#2 A roasted turkey. on 10.11.15 at 5:45 pm

One week till PMO JT. Harpo’s toast.

#3 IKnow on 10.11.15 at 5:49 pm

Garth, if 5% of buyers of Apple stocks are committed and gave the resource to long the stocks at any price level, then what do you think that knowledge will do to the value of AAPL?
Will you expect the Bears can win say in the next 10 years?

It’s absolutely childish to think or say that 5% of China buyers have just a 5% effect on Yvr house prices.
That marginal effect us much greater, (all) vancouverites feel chinese money will never stop coming.
Make as much fun of them as one likes, but market irrationality likely will last longer than the remaining life spans if many old geezers on this blog.

And it’s beaten to death here and many other blogs, the number people feel is much higher than 5%.
Lots of astronaut families are likely not counted on that 5%.

If you stop obsessing about it, there might be less effect. Just sayin’. — Garth

#4 common sense on 10.11.15 at 5:50 pm

Local small town advance polling saw seniors and many first time voters…

What’s the old saying “Why buy the cow (house), when you can get it(rent)close to free?”

Lower interest rates after the election?

#5 Steve French on 10.11.15 at 5:50 pm

OMG I could be FFFFUUUUUURRRRSSSTTTT!

As Russell Oliver says…

Ohhhh yeaaaaaahhhhhhhh

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgymX4VDDu4

#6 Ashes ashes we all fall down on 10.11.15 at 5:52 pm

And now you’re trusting the numbers provided by the real estate boards? Numbers obtained by unscientific surveying of their own, self-interested members?

Shame on you.

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2012/07/18/statistics/
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2013/10/16/truth-trust/
http://www.greaterfool.ca/2013/10/16/truth-trust/

I provided those from the BC government, the provincial association and two local boards. Please give us yours. — Garth

#7 Mocha on 10.11.15 at 5:54 pm

It’s nice to read that you finally made a concession on the foreign “residents” in Vancouver, but does it signify a real change in mind or were you simply throwing us non-PC readers a scrap of turkey?

Happy thanksgiving buddy, and all you other weirdos as well…

That was a concession? You’re easy. — Garth

#8 Freedom First on 10.11.15 at 5:55 pm

5 things come to mind. 1) people who cannot or will not think, want what they want when they want it, no exception. 2) people who live like #1 want to do what they want to do without input from anyone to the contrary, yet are the first to cry/whine for a bailout when everything turns to crap, which it always does. 3) All of the above people refuse to take responsibility for their mistakes. 4) the majority of people lack discipline. 5) politicians (Garth is an anomaly), give the people what they want.

#9 Nora Lenderby on 10.11.15 at 5:57 pm

Blimey. No-one has lived in that place for a while – the wisteria monster is taking over the garage.

I’ll get the secateurs.

#10 Kuato Lives on 10.11.15 at 5:57 pm

5809 residences on the market in Calgary now. It seems to be rising by about 50 a day.

#11 IKnow on 10.11.15 at 5:59 pm

Spelling corrections:
us much = is much
counted on = counted among

By the way, it was the Hong Kong people who perfected the greed of real estates speculation.
Then Mainland chinese learn about that get wealthy quick greed.
Vancouverites now are catching the bugs now.

At work, a young 30 years old white Canadian male coworker is seriously making real estates investment, buying rental condos and rental warehouse spaces.
He only has seen the winning side of real estates ownership.

#12 Joe on 10.11.15 at 6:00 pm

Trudeau says PMO role in refugee resettlement ‘disgusting’

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-middle-class-tax-cut-refugees-1.3264339

#13 A Rod on 10.11.15 at 6:03 pm

Did I make it to first? Nice blog

#14 Joe on 10.11.15 at 6:07 pm

Academics slam Harper over inflammatory Campaign Tactics

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/letter-conservatives-campaign-1.3264946

#15 I.T. is a dead end career on 10.11.15 at 6:13 pm

CGI, Canada’s largest I.T. company, has just finishing laying off approximately 600 middle class Canadians over the month of September. And that’s just in the GTA. The divisions supporting the Banks saw the biggest cuts, with smaller cuts to those supporting retailers, manufacturers, insurance companies, and government.

I wonder how many of them have huge mortgages, big credit card debts or lines of credit and thought that with the current cheap interest rates they would always be able to keep up with their debts. I do know one 30-something who just bought a new condo townhouse down near Liberty Village.

It just seems like all the negative economic elements are starting to line up for the Country and we haven’t even started to feel pain yet.

#16 The real Kip on 10.11.15 at 6:17 pm

I’m on vacation in Newfoundland next week and we are awaiting the ferry in North Sydney now. We voted Friday before we left Ontario as well and they said it was heavy.

Helen and I both voted for Harper, steady as she goes Canada.

It snowed a little in Edmunston last night, beautiful.

#17 Sad Elf on 10.11.15 at 6:20 pm

Any chance we could get a reference to the full survey? Ignoring the issue that the data seems sourced from Realtors who have (what can only imagine are fairly obvious) self reporting biases, I’d like to see the data and draw my own conclusions.

Regardless the data misses the mark even if taken at face value. Almost the entirety of the debate is centered around the origin of the cash influx, not the people who claim to be buying the house. The real issues are potential tax-evasion and owner absenteeism – not so much xenophobia as you tend to frame it.

The entire situation doesn’t even pass a basic sniff-test.

#18 For those about to flop... on 10.11.15 at 6:21 pm

Speaking of turkeys, seems there’s new evidence about how many foreign Chinese buyers are gobbling up BC real estate. It comes on the heels of remarks by premier Christy Clark that it’s probably unwise to blame Hot Asian Money for Vancouver real estate being the most expensive in North America. Clark says a “rough estimate” of the number of foreign investors is 4% or 5%, and most of the deals they’re doing are concentrated in a small area – that rarified, carrot-up-your-butt hood known as the Westside.Speaking of turkeys, seems there’s new evidence about how many foreign Chinese buyers are gobbling up BC real estate. It comes on the heels of remarks by premier Christy Clark that it’s probably unwise to blame Hot Asian Money for Vancouver real estate being the most expensive in North America. Clark says a “rough estimate” of the number of foreign investors is 4% or 5%, and most of the deals they’re doing are concentrated in a small area – that rarified, carrot-up-your-butt hood known as the Westside.

/////////////////////////////
Garth I think it’s only carrots and cucumbers in the summer.
I think this time of year they switch over to squashes and zucchini!

#19 John Doe on 10.11.15 at 6:23 pm

Re: #3 IKnow on 10.11.15 at 5:49 pm

Well, if you know that the Chinese economy is not only slowing down, but perhaps collapsing (because its housing bubble had already begun to burst). There is not an infinite amount of money from China that will flee to Canada…

#20 Love my Kia on 10.11.15 at 6:26 pm

I love Newfies!

This is so Canadian, using humour to retaliate against fear and division. We have the right to vote with anything we want on our faces.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/mask-face-covering-voting-1.3266109

#21 Victoria Real Estate Update on 10.11.15 at 6:27 pm

Recently, The Economist pointed out how severely overvalued Canadian real estate is and that houses in the US are actually undervalued by 6% when measured against incomes.

Incomes in Canada and the US are approximately equal and, up to 2006, house prices in these two countries had been at the same level for a long time.

The US correction put house prices there back to where they should be, based on rents and incomes. This allowed the US economy to reset and grow new roots. American companies were once again able to be competitive on the international stage. Sky-high house prices ruins the economy. The Canadian economy, on the other hand, is the only G7 country in recession in 2015. Bubble house prices has a lot to do with this. No country in the world has solved its economic problems by intentionally creating and maintaining a housing bubble. Recent actions in Canada to further inflate the housing bubble will only make the Canadian economy worse in the future.

If house prices in Canada corrected back to where they should be, based on rents and incomes, it would restore the long-time housing price parity that existed between Canada and the US.

How low is this level? It’s easy to understand where that level is when we take a look at where house prices currently are in various regions of the US.

The following houses have at least 3 beds, 2 baths, 1,800 sq. ft. of primary (above ground) living area, no older than 2005 and have an attached double garage.

It’s almost impossible to find a comparable house in any Canadian city for less than $350 K, whether you are talking about Winnipeg, Saskatoon, Regina, Edmonton, Calgary, Victoria, Vancouver, Toronto, Hamilton, Toronto, Quebec City, Montreal or Halifax. In a lot of cases, a comparable Canadian house would cost $700 K to over a million.

Examples:

$ 85 K, Arizona City, Arizona (Phoenix)

$ 90 K, Carrollton, Georgia (Atlanta)

$ 130 K, Vero Beach, Florida

$ 114 K, Converse, Texas (San Antonio)

$ 135 K, Las Vegas, Nevada

$ 90 K, Indianapolis, Indiana

$ 100 K, Charlotte, North Carolina

Note that foreclosures were not included.

The conclusion is simple: with similar incomes, Americans can afford their homes, Canadians can’t.

#22 I.T. is a dead end career on 10.11.15 at 6:28 pm

Trudeau says PMO role in refugee resettlement ‘disgusting’

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-middle-class-tax-cut-refugees-1.3264339
————————————————
The funny thing is that these same type of folks that Justin wants to bring in happen to make up 96% of Thorncliffe Park, right around the corner of his grand standing at the Longo’s in Leaside.

I’m one of the 4% who have yet to abandon the neighborhood and I was at the advance polls this weekend, lined up with some 40 of these muslim folks.

Sorry Justing but they will NOT vote for you. You are tied to Kathleen Wynne and they absolutely, positively, overwhelmingly hate her.

From the protests against the sex-ed curriculum that have been going in the province over the last few months it should now be noticeable to the NDP and Liberals that millions of the people who have been immigrating to this country lately have very conservative social values that are much closer to Harper’s than to any other party or party leader.

#23 Flamed out in Kitchener on 10.11.15 at 6:30 pm

Humans study Lemmings, yet we learn nothing but to follow in their ways; silly humans. Which ever way you all vote on the 19th, I’m sure that the winning politicians will fix everything in this great land. I’ve seen all of their commercials, so it must be true.

Oh and … Happy Thanksgiving Garth.

#24 rainclouds on 10.11.15 at 6:34 pm

Mmmmm carrots. ….

The reformacon war room cranking up the vitriol for the final push. “Friends, Justin can’t manage the economy” meanwhile former P.B.O. head Kevin Page (appointed by the current PM) is dutifully throwing the cons and their abysmal 9 yr record under the bus.

The Irony is delicious .Mr Transparency/ grassroots /fiscal wizard is hanging on by his cloven fingernails, nasty game plan unraveling.

Minority 2 yrs. The genius quits. Canada moves on from this sorry period.

#25 John on 10.11.15 at 6:39 pm

I was so pissed off over the lower TFSA limits proposed that I was certainly going to vote conservative. I’m a small business owner and need all the TFSA room i can get to build up my own retirment fund. Upon further reflection there are too many negative things Harper has done. He forced the very unpopular bill C51 on us and now he’s trying to ram through the TPP without anyone reading it first. I just found out the TPP is full of Internet censorship legislation. Someone needs to read that thing and be honest with us. He’s like a dictator forcing all his MPs to tow the party line no matter what they think. Trudea will legalize and regulate pot. Canada can be a world leader in ending this ridiculous war on pot and all the crime that comes with it. That’s something we can get excited about. Voting for my TFSA would be very selfish when there are bigger things on the horizon. We need a change. I’m voting Libs now.

#26 Mark on 10.11.15 at 6:41 pm

“I wonder how many of them have huge mortgages, big credit card debts or lines of credit and thought that with the current cheap interest rates they would always be able to keep up with their debts.”

Given that the IT sector really has done very little hiring since the late 1990s in Canada, there’s a pretty good chance that most of those workers are in their 40s and 50s. Hence, they wouldn’t be on their way to default as quickly as say, the oilpatchers or mortgage brokers hired in the past 5-10 years who ran up huge debt with likely very little equity.

Of course, with the IT sector in such shambles in Canada, its anyone’s guess if they’ll ever be able to find replacement jobs. After all, there’s a good 10-15 years worth of grads who have largely been ignored by the sector as nearly all incremental growth has been through offshoring and outsourcing to the usual offshore centres and domestic use of TFW’s.

It would seem to me that only Trudeau has outlined anything resembling a productivity and investment agenda for the next government should they be elected. Mulcair’s agenda seems to be anti-productivity. And Harper hasn’t been able to achieve anything along those lines.

At work, a young 30 years old white Canadian male coworker is seriously making real estates investment, buying rental condos and rental warehouse spaces.
He only has seen the winning side of real estates ownership.

I knew a guy who did that 15 years ago. He’s done well for himself since because he picked up houses on the cheap. But today, we call those guys getting into it right now, “bagholders”.

Lower interest rates after the election?

Likely. The Canadian dollar is going up, as is to be expected in deflation. House prices are declining. Consumer price inflation is non-existent. Points to a rate cut next week, although I’ve certainly been wrong before about such (and no, this time, I am not going to take a hiatus!).

#27 Rapier Wit on 10.11.15 at 6:44 pm

I came across this piece – its a combination of scary and confusing. Seems in line with what has been written about Canada in the recent past though.

Seems that all is not so rosy and the financial underpinnings of our Southern neighbors not so solid.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/most-americans-have-less-than-1000-in-savings-2015-10-06

#28 Retired Boomer - WI on 10.11.15 at 6:44 pm

Well eight more days to find out who ‘won’ the Canadian Political Lottery.

Who believes the ‘winner’ whoever that may be, will have an honest chat with the citizenry on where the economy is, and where indicators point it is headed near term.

I do not believe you will ever hear such a report.

Still, we muddle on. I wonder what this week has in store for us all?

Good to hear so many are exercising their citizen duty to choose their representatives. Hope the citizens win.

#29 dosouth on 10.11.15 at 6:45 pm

Waiting for the next 1/4 % drop just after the election. Just like the other one, none of the parties elected or not are going to touch this with any force. Probably the last one this year but hey……..the banks are making money either way by not passing on the savings to clients.

#30 BS on 10.11.15 at 6:53 pm

As you can see, 90.3% of all buyers in the Vancouver area came from BC. Another 4% were refugees from Canada. So a relative handful either emigrated from outside the country or were foreign investors.

Yes but the 95% don’t get press every time they buy. The 5% do. That is enough to fool the sheep.

I live in Vancouver and it seems everyone I know owns 2 or 3 places. Instead of selling their current place when they move up they keep it and buy a second or third. Almost unheard of 10 years ago but the norm now.

Just today I overheard a 20 something lady explaining to the store clerk she couldn’t use her Visa card because it was maxed out for a recent downpayment on an ‘investment’ condo. Too many people with average incomes are up to there eye balls in debt and real estate is what is driving this market.

#31 Sam the Sham on 10.11.15 at 6:58 pm

Garth actually quotes the BC Real Estate Association for positive information! Will wonders never cease!

The survey was done by the GVREB, not the provincial association. However those groups and the province has reached a similar conclusion. — Garth

#32 For those about to flop... on 10.11.15 at 7:01 pm

Can’t put that one up?
I thought it was alright!

#33 Freeman on 10.11.15 at 7:02 pm

From my current research I have come to the conclusion that the world is slowly sinking into a recession. Just imagine Greece, how they spent themselves into a big hole and now cannot dig themselves out of that financial pit. If we are going into a recession, a global recession, there won’t be the income from any exports to other countries to pull us out of it, and it we spent way more than what be bring in with taxes then we do the same stupid stuff that Greece did = OVER-SPENDING.

So even though I don’t like the Conservatives for their scandals, if we get the Liberals in or the NDP in they will spend us into a black hole to which we will never be able to recover. So I’m going to vote for the guys I hate (Conservative) because at least that way out debt won’t go to the moon. We won’t become the next Greece.

#34 BS on 10.11.15 at 7:03 pm

More long lineups at the 400 advance polls across the nation yesterday. People (like me) waited an eternity to scratch their X in a process that’s being overwhelmed.

Massive line up today at my polling station in Vancouver. Somehow I got put in the short line and got through in 30 minutes. Others waited hours. Really a poorly run boondoggle. If they want people to vote they need to streamline this. Like anything the government runs it is run poorly. Felt good to vote for a small government (and a TFSA). Just more proof the less things the government runs the better.

#35 BC Guy on 10.11.15 at 7:15 pm

True story:

In the 1960’s, you could buy land in BC for about $100/acre from the BC government. That’s because the BC government wanted to make it easy for people, average citizens to own land. Nowadays, land in BC can easily cost $100,000/acre or more. What happened?

– the BC government drastically reduced the amount of crown land they sold
– the BC government dramatically raised the price per acre
– wealthy speculators, businesses and multi-national corporations began buying up large tracts of land and held onto it, either leaving it undeveloped, or logged it and sold the timber, then subdivided and raised the price by a factor of 100 or 1000 times the original price
– the population of BC has steadily increased

So real estate in Vancouver and BC is sky-high because of supply/demand. The average Joe-bag-of-donuts cannot afford to buy land anymore and has to settle for a tiny lot (1/4 or 1/2 acre) or condo or townhouse in a town or city.

The BC and federal government could fix this problem by exponentially increasing taxes on larger plots of land, like the 100,000 hectare ranch owned by the Walmart exec or the 10,000 hectare ranch owned by the Saudi prince, to give just a couple of examples. This would:

A) dramatically increase tax revenues collected from these billionaire land owner/speculators
B) ultimately force them to subdivide and sell their large land holdings
C) allow average Canadians to own a plot of land around 5 acres
D) this would stimulate the economy by bringing services to the land (BC Hydro, water systems/wells)
E) this would create a massive construction boom in rural parts of BC as people can now afford to buy outside the city
F) it would relieve the congestion and traffic of the large cities

If you keep voting for Christy Clarke and Stephen Harper, land reform will never happen because they favour the wealthy 1% land owners. They want you to keep renting in a dense urban area.

Wealth disparity takes on many forms; there’s income disparity, financial asset disparity, and land disparity.

There’s on one way to mark you ballot next week:

Stephen Harper – you’re fired! X

#36 Gerry on 10.11.15 at 7:16 pm

conservative candidate were members of cheating site ashley madison, all from ontario

“Regrettably for him Ashley Madison didn’t fully delete the account” http://canadampleaks.com

#37 Overlord on 10.11.15 at 7:18 pm

“2014 statistics from Macdonald Realty and ReMax show that 70 per cent of their clients were from mainland China.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/housing/the-real-estate-beat/foreign-investors-avoid-taxes-by-buying-real-estate-in-canada/article26683767/

Actually they just have Chinese names. McDonald admitted that was its methodology. — Garth

#38 Garth on 10.11.15 at 7:18 pm

There’s no point in debating the Chinese influence in the Van market. It is obvious to everyone who lives here, regardless of what the developer-funded media reports.

Understood. I will stop confusing you with facts. — Garth

#39 Timmy on 10.11.15 at 7:23 pm

Re #21 Victoria Real Estate

I see you have cited examples of cities where many people don’t want to live or those with poor job prospects. What about the prices for Los Angeles, San Diego, San Jose, Boston, Chicago, San Francisco, San Jose, Austin, Seattle, Denver for a more accurate comparison. Try finding a home in a decent neighborhood in these cities for less than $300K

#40 Happyjack on 10.11.15 at 7:37 pm

There has been mention made that we could end up with a minority govt. History has shown that this is not necessarily a bad thing.

Lester B Pearson ( 1897-1972 ) During his tenure in office as leader of a minority govt. (16 January 1958 – 22 April 1963) was able to accomplish many great things ! Among them, (universal health care, student loans, the Canada Pension Plan, the Order of Canada, and the new Flag of Canada. Pearson also convened the Royal Commission on Bilingualism and Biculturalism, and he struggled to keep Canada out of the Vietnam War. In 1967, his government passed Bill C-168, which abolished capital punishment in Canada) .

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lester_B._Pearson

These achievements appear to be due to the great leadership skills of Mr. Pearson. I would ask, do any of our current leaders running have these great leadership skills ?

Mr. Pearson was undoubtedly “One Great Canadian”.

Keep Smiling !

#41 TurnerNation on 10.11.15 at 7:39 pm

All this talk over Tim Hortons. (Why?)
Horrible food and coffee. All from frozen. You get friendly TFWs or grumpy locals.

Where I go… $7.50 all in gets you coffee and breakfast sandwich:
A thick creamy Americano in large cup. Italian beans. Sugar if you desire is a wetish mix of raw sugar and ground expresso beans (!).
Sandwich’s dough is made in house night before. Can get vegetarian or Mortadello or pork With fancy cheese and garnish. Delivered to your table on real plates with water service.

Like I said same price as trucked in timmies truck.
Kanadians, stop bending over for corporate mediocrity.

#42 Mark on 10.11.15 at 7:39 pm

“Waiting for the next 1/4 % drop just after the election. Just like the other one, none of the parties elected or not are going to touch this with any force.”

Touch what? Interest rates? Those are set by the market, and in the case of the short-term overnight rates, are influenced by BoC monetary policy. I’m not sure what a government could really do, aside from going on a spending binge that would drive up interest rates. Is a spending binge simply to achieve higher rates something that is desirable? I don’t know about that. If the spending is wasteful, then we’ll have been left with higher interest rates and higher inflation, which will certainly lead to lower real returns for cash savers. If the spending is directed on accretive infrastructure investment, then it is possible that such investment may actually drive rates even lower by increasing productivity.

People who adopt a one-asset strategy and complain about its poor returns really have only themselves to blame. Garth has outlined, repeatedely, that the returns on a balanced portfolio have been in line with historic norms in terms of real returns. Balanced portfolios are not rocket science. However, it takes a ‘special’ kind of silly to think that lending all your money to TNL&TB will, over the long term, lead to a favourable outcome. Yet that is exactly what people who demand “higher interest rates” because allegedly “seniors are starving” seem to be most interested in — the government somehow rescuing them from the outcome of poor decision making (ie: lending their life savings to banks by buying GICs instead of actually investing it properly).

Higher interest rates would likely be terrible for savers, particularly seniors, as they would be accompanied by higher inflation and lower real after-tax returns. Likely negative real after-tax returns, as seen in times past when rates were in the high single digits. Not something we should wish to go back to, IMHO, and a reflection of an incredibly poor quality economy at the time, even if the high interest paid masked such, at least temporarily.

#43 zee on 10.11.15 at 7:40 pm

Garth

First off, define “Foreign ownership” then we can have this discussion.

I find that everyone has a different definition of this.

#44 kommykim on 10.11.15 at 7:42 pm

RE:The election’s fascinating, but it reminds me of a bidding war. Nobody wins.

Realtors win.

#45 Nagraj on 10.11.15 at 7:44 pm

Mr. Harper stares and stares and stares at the perfectly roasted and delightfully stuffed turkey.
Mrs. Harper again gently suggests that he start carving, but he just stares and stares and stares.

So she says, “Dear, let’s change places why don’t we.”
Zombie-like he does as she suggests.

Mrs. Harper, to lighten the atmosphere, smilingly brandishes the carving knife and warbles, “Well! Who’s for the Pope’s nose?”

No-one.
“Pope’s leg?”
Several hands go up. She declares, “Well, there’s only two, you know, ha ha ha. I think I saw Poloz’s hand shoot up first. There you are, Steve, aren’t you swift. But, forgive me friends, I’m saving the other leg for the other Steve, my esteemed husband.” She passes the leg-laden plate to Steve but he does nothing, just sits – staring staring staring –

SUDDENLY the guest from Vancouver’s Westside stands up, grabs a large honey-glazed minted carrot and begins unbuckling his belt. Our ever alert hostess: “Oh no no no no! Those are COOKED carrots, Walter. They’re quite SOFT.” Wally wordlessly puts the glazed and minted carrot back, buckles his belt and sits down.

On a warm light breeze little noises from the outside world drift into this dining room through the partially opened, richly curtained windows: there’s the English gardener madly chopping back the megalomaniacal wysteria, a raggedy group of blind and toothless seniors from Hamilton waiting for fresh scraps weakly singing “Rock of Ages”, and there’s this faint but powerfully unsettling “eave eve eave eve” echo from the nearest advance polling station.

UNEXPECTEDLY Mrs. Harper’s two cute little vampire pet bats come fluttering in. Mrs. Harper: “Oh, hello there! Welcome fellers! Would you like – ”
But the female guests cover their hair with their hands and jump up screaming in fear.
Our hostess just loses it and shouts, “STAND NOT UPON THE ORDER OF YOUR GOING, BUT GO!”
Everyone leaves.

Except of course for Mr. Harper who just sits there, staring and staring and staring and staring . . .

clip clip clip goes the hedge cutter clip clip clip

” … cleft for me … ” weakly resonates in the empty room

the air hums “eave eve” “eave eve” “eave eve”

The bats have settled on Mr. Harper’s shoulders, close to his neck.

#46 Daisy Mae on 10.11.15 at 7:45 pm

“The better part of a million people voted on Friday alone, up from the last election by 26% and ahead of the one before that by a stunning 98%.”

********************

Yes. It’s about ‘change’. The electorate is disgusted and damn angry…

#47 Ralph Cramdown on 10.11.15 at 7:47 pm

Harper is running ads on the radio. Says the Conservatives will keep income splitting for families AND SENIORS. I was pretty sure that the other parties have no plans to touch income splitting for seniors, but I checked. Sure enough, and the Conservatives have been spouting this little canard since the spring. When I was young, my parents taught me that saying something that was technically true with the intent to mislead or deceive was about the same as lying.

Steve also says this election is not a popularity contest. He wishes.

#48 Mark on 10.11.15 at 7:47 pm

“Felt good to vote for a small government (and a TFSA). Just more proof the less things the government runs the better.”

The Federal government’s size and spending in the economy has expanded significantly under the Conservatives.* Not to mention the Conservative government now has taxpayers on the hook for up to $900B in loan guarantees against housing mortgages.

So what party exactly did you vote for? I’m not aware of any other party that is promoting the TFSA, but to paint the Conservatives as a party of smaller government and fiscal austerity just doesn’t seem accurate to me.

* source: http://www.taxpayer.com/media/Federal%20Expenditures%20by%20Year%20and%20Item%20(Total),%201961-1962%20to%202011-2012(1).pdf

#49 rainclouds on 10.11.15 at 7:48 pm

http://ipolitics.ca/2015/10/11/kevin-pages-pre-election-fiscal-warning-the-process-has-been-completely-broken-2/

#50 IHCTD9 on 10.11.15 at 7:48 pm

#15 I.T. is a dead end career on 10.11.15

I wonder how many of them have huge mortgages, big credit card debts or lines of credit and thought that with the current cheap interest rates they would always be able to keep up with their debts. I do know one 30-something who just bought a new condo townhouse down near Liberty Village.

It just seems like all the negative economic elements are starting to line up for the Country and we haven’t even started to feel pain yet.

—————————-

My bet is that the generally weak overall economy in Ontario is going to draw first blood in the two remaining hot RE markets in Canada, starting with Toronto obviously. The list of cutting and outright failing companies in this province continues to increase, and with a fool Premiere at the helm; all we can do is watch. Eventually, it’s going to start affecting confidence, and I’m guessing that this will happen before interest rates climb high enough to put on the brakes.

#51 omg the original on 10.11.15 at 7:53 pm

The BC Real Estate Association says phooey, that foreigner investors account for about only 5% of transactions.
————

Funny wasn’t the BC REA one of the biggest stokers of the HAM myth over the past few years.

Now that S**t may Hit The Fan over it they are finally saying its not a problem.

#52 omg the original on 10.11.15 at 7:57 pm

As we all know, this has turned into an election issue, with the Cons and Libs both vowing to analyze the origins of buyers and then take action, if necessary.
———————-

Too bad tho Political Hacks weren’t so keen as to provide some transparency to markets.

That is, kill the tacit monopoly power the Real Estate Boards have over MLS listing and statistic.

Imagine how much more competitive the Canadian Real Estate market might be if we had a Zillow like entity with real previous sales data, DOM and full listings.

But I am guessing the Real Estate Boards make sure they grease the right political hands.

#53 IHCTD9 on 10.11.15 at 8:00 pm

#22 I.T. is a dead end career on 10.11.15 at 6:28 pm
Trudeau says PMO role in refugee resettlement ‘disgusting’

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-middle-class-tax-cut-refugees-1.3264339
————————————————
The funny thing is that these same type of folks that Justin wants to bring in happen to make up 96% of Thorncliffe Park, right around the corner of his grand standing at the Longo’s in Leaside.

I’m one of the 4% who have yet to abandon the neighborhood and I was at the advance polls this weekend, lined up with some 40 of these muslim folks.

Sorry Justing but they will NOT vote for you. You are tied to Kathleen Wynne and they absolutely, positively, overwhelmingly hate her.

From the protests against the sex-ed curriculum that have been going in the province over the last few months it should now be noticeable to the NDP and Liberals that millions of the people who have been immigrating to this country lately have very conservative social values that are much closer to Harper’s than to any other party or party leader.
———————————-

Harper gave an interview down in the US a while back and spoke to this fact. Socially conservative immigrants were the newest and fastest growing support base for the Conservatives.

And yes, if any of them were political agnostics at the last election, Wynne has surely turned many of them into instant partisans with that sex-Ed scheme. She could not have screwed herself any harder than she did. I get the impression a lot of these new Canadians don’t even historically vote – I bet they are now!

I’ll be watching how she does in her riding in the next Provincial election with interest…

#54 Washed Up Lawyer on 10.11.15 at 8:03 pm

Settling in now to watch the boys of summer.

Mr. Gibbons, tell the lads to hit the ball where they ain’t.

Simple. Or, if that don’t work, goon it up.

#55 Chris on 10.11.15 at 8:08 pm

A big turnout for advance voting means trouble for Harper. People are eager to vote because they are angry and are eager for change. That is the only way to read this. The Cons are turning desperate recently and are throwing the kitchen sink at the voters and see what works. Harper beginning to talk about limiting foreign ownership of real estate and cannot stop talking about niqab. There was an ad about mentally ill and being a criminal. Oh, and Kenney is praising Chinese Nobel prize winner and Chinese medicine. You get the picture…

#56 Suede on 10.11.15 at 8:09 pm

Voting in this election is like making one of the following 3 decisions.

1) going furniture shopping with my wife
2) watching an entire CFL game
3) giving all my money to my unemployed brother who loves conspiracy theories.

But then again if I don’t vote then I’ll be Facebook shamed for not exercising my democratic right that people have died for.

People have also died for speed records, dumb cults, Darwin awards, etc.. But no one judges me for not following in their footsteps.

Do i vote for my wallet, or the “greater good”.

Decisions..

#57 Mark on 10.11.15 at 8:12 pm

“When I was young, my parents taught me that saying something that was technically true with the intent to mislead or deceive was about the same as lying.”

The Tories put a flyer in my mailbox claiming the stock market would crash if they weren’t re-elected. I would have to agree with your comments — such campaign tactics are usually the moves of a desperate proponent likely on the losing end of the polls.

Good thing that’s an easy myth to disprove though, that the stock market can’t do well under, for instance, the Liberals. After all, it was under the Liberals in the 1990s that the TSX (TSE) index tripled. The Liberals succeeded in reigning in the size and scope of government which allowed Canada to experience economic success in the midst of a severe downturn in the resource sector. Unemployment fell to the lowest level in Canadian non-wartime history. Job quality went through the roof.

#58 omg the original on 10.11.15 at 8:13 pm

Victoria Real Estate Update

It’s almost impossible to find a comparable house in any Canadian city for less than $350 K, whether you are talking about Winnipeg, Saskatoon, Regina, Edmonton, Calgary, Victoria, Vancouver, Toronto, Hamilton, Toronto, Quebec City, Montreal or Halifax. In a lot of cases, a comparable Canadian house would cost $700 K to over a million.
————————-

Yes we have truly become a country that has rationalized high prices as the NORM.

So what determines the price of a house – most people would say supply and demand is the major factor – and be wrong.

As big or bigger of factor is the “anchor” to which you compare prices (called the anchoring effect by economists).

We in Canada have become “used to” house prices being multiples higher than what they were in the past.

So that house in S’toon that 15 years ago would have sold for 3 time average income seems to be a normal deal at 7 time average income.

Essentially Canadians have come to view exorbitant as NORMAL.

So people will pay $900k for a bungalow in Victoria, $650k for a nice condo in downtown S’toon, or $1 million for an east Van dump.

Just because that’s seems to be what they are worth based on…..what other places in those cities seem to be worth.

It hasn’t gotten to this level of absurdity over night – tis taken several years.

It will revert to the mean – markets always do – whether its high tech growth stocks, US house prices, or the S&P 500.

But short of a massive increase in interest rates house prices will not unwind quickly in Canada.

There are just too many factors working against a sudden and deep correction.

#59 West Coast on 10.11.15 at 8:19 pm

http://www.ekathimerini.com/202405/article/ekathimerini/news/greek-minister-says-eu-refugee-relocation-program-undermined-by-racism

speaking of Greece…..the current Migration Minister Yannis Mouzalas said in an interview that Greece was having trouble finding refugees to send to certain countries because the receiving nations had set what he called “racist criteria”……….
…..several thousand (refugees), mostly Afghans, have ended up trapped in Greece for lack of money. European authorities are reluctant to treat Afghans systematically as refugees, and a result, they are shut out of the relocation process.
“It’s absurd to think that Afghans are coming to find better work. There is a long-lasting war, you aren’t safe anywhere, that’s the reality,” Mouzalas said.

Interesting to think about Canada’s current ‘racist criteria’ concerning refugees…………..

#60 gumboot princess on 10.11.15 at 8:20 pm

My family voted today on Vancouver Island and we had about a 30-minute wait.

What I wasn’t expecting was a bit of a party atmosphere. No grumbles or impatience. First-time voters were announced and given a round of applause by those in the line-up. I love my country!

#61 JOHN on 10.11.15 at 8:20 pm

Garth,
Don’t confuse “rough estimate” with facts. The government can get the exact numbers from the land registry office, but they don’t want to do it.
In Florida government knows who the non-residents so they can taxed accordingly.

#62 kommykim on 10.11.15 at 8:25 pm

RE:And as blog dog Sunni points out, at least one North Van realtor has published new data from the YVR board showing the number of foreign investors over the past year doubled – from 1.9% to 4%. Wow.

It’s not surprising that there is a large variation considering the small sample size. Only 160 realtors surveyed in 2014 and 152 in 2015.

#63 pete on 10.11.15 at 8:27 pm

You write a good blog Garth, but this post is embarrassing. I place little faith in “foreigners are coming” anecdotes, but frankly they’re up there with “rough estimate”, a column which I’ve never seen in a Stats Canada spreadsheet and realtor releases.

Until actual stats are kept why even counter rubbish data that’s no better than “my BiL’s next door neighbour said”. It only debases your argument.

The post contained numbers from the local industry. Or did you miss that big box full of numbers? Now, that would be embarrassing. — Garth

#64 David on 10.11.15 at 8:28 pm

When I was a kid they had polling stations in the Avon lady house up the street. No body here voted for Mike Pearson, but at least voting was not difficult.The last election my family in Alberta was asking me why I was phoning them them from a 701 number in North Dakota?
This whole mysterious Chinese investors thing is a hoax. China has extremely restrictive controls on exporting capital and same with Korea.
Justin Trudeau is a flyweight and a Harper me-too.
Before my middle class life goes down the toilet I am not going to vote for Harper or Trudeau.
This housing bubble is going to end and the financial results will probably be horrifying no matter who is in government.

#65 Leo Trollstoy on 10.11.15 at 8:30 pm

If Garth is right, and the advance polls are pulling big numbers from older voters then the PC are a lock. Primarily because older voters vote PC.

Congrats Steve!

#66 conan on 10.11.15 at 8:37 pm

#56 Suede on 10.11.15 at 8:09 pm

All the cool people are voting for the greater good.

#67 young & foolish on 10.11.15 at 8:40 pm

If cheap money is an enabler of RE speculation, then it is likely also propping up the equity markets.

Retail investors don’t buy stocks with 95% leverage from lenders whose loans are insured by taxpayers. No comparison. — Garth

#68 Numbers Man on 10.11.15 at 8:42 pm

“I provided those from the BC government, the provincial association and two local boards. Please give us yours. — Garth”

Okay I will, 8 13 26 27 & 4. I base these numbers on absolutely nothing. I simply pulled them from my ass the same way the leaders do when they talk a billion here billion there.

As I thought. — Garth

#69 Marius on 10.11.15 at 8:44 pm

So the “evidence” is a politician’s “rough estimate” and a survey of a few realtors??? Hardly scientific, and neither of those professions inspire much faith in me.

#70 Numbers Man on 10.11.15 at 8:46 pm

“#60 gumboot princess on 10.11.15 at 8:20 pm
My family voted today on Vancouver Island and we had about a 30-minute wait.

What I wasn’t expecting was a bit of a party atmosphere. No grumbles or impatience. First-time voters were announced and given a round of applause by those in the line-up. I love my country!”

I guess the ‘shrooms are ready on Vancouver Island.

#71 Lorne on 10.11.15 at 8:52 pm

#65 Leo Trollstoy
If Garth is right, and the advance polls are pulling big numbers from older voters then the PC are a lock. Primarily because older voters vote PC.

Congrats Steve!
…………..
Sorry, Leo….all the older voters I know, some who voted yesterday, are NOT voting for the PC’s. Now, does that mean much…..probably just a bit more than the drivel you posted!

#72 young & foolish on 10.11.15 at 8:53 pm

“The Federal government’s size and spending in the economy has expanded significantly under the Conservatives.”

You bet! Why? Because it’s a myth that smaller government allows the private sector to take more risks and be more efficient.

#73 young & foolish on 10.11.15 at 8:57 pm

“Retail investors don’t buy stocks with 95% leverage from lenders whose loans are insured by taxpayers. No comparison. ”

True, but huge numbers of retails investors and numerous funds are in equities seeking “higher yield” … at least until interest rates start going up.

#74 Leo Trollstoy on 10.11.15 at 8:57 pm

Like Garth’s poll, the PC win easy. Other party supporters just whine more loudly. But majority vote PC

#75 Squish on 10.11.15 at 9:03 pm

#30 BS on 10.11.15 at 6:53 pm

“I live in Vancouver and it seems everyone I know owns 2 or 3 places. Instead of selling their current place when they move up they keep it and buy a second or third. Almost unheard of 10 years ago but the norm now.

Just today I overheard a 20 something lady explaining to the store clerk she couldn’t use her Visa card because it was maxed out for a recent downpayment on an ‘investment’ condo. Too many people with average incomes are up to there eye balls in debt and real estate is what is driving this market.”
————

Squamish is experiencing the same thing, but with property prices going nutso due to spill-over of people moving from the Vancouver area, and a major rentals crunch at the same time (zero vacancy rate for a few years now) pushing rents sky-high so it looks like it’s a better financial decision to buy. People talk about foreign money driving up prices, while they buy their 2nd or 3rd half-million townhouse “investment property” with money from mom or credit cards used for the minimum down payment. The logical disconnect is mind boggling. And the positively frenetic pace has an air of un-acknowledged desperation to it, honestly.

#76 Mark on 10.11.15 at 9:15 pm

“You bet! Why? Because it’s a myth that smaller government allows the private sector to take more risks and be more efficient.”

That’s not what the 1990s told us. Per the previous link I offered up, the Liberals held spending down in the 1990s, yet the economy experienced extremely vibrant growth through the end of the decade. All in a resource sector depression, no less.

In fact, according to that link, the Liberal government spent roughly the the same inflation-adjusted in 1993-1994, as it did when it lost its majority in 2003-2004.

Compare and contrast with the Tories who grew spending from $208B (2005-2006) to $271B in 2011-2012.

Its also noteworthy to note that government spending fell significantly in the 1996-1999 period. One of the hottest periods and most vibrant periods of productivity growth in the Canadian economy in recent history.

True, but huge numbers of retails investors and numerous funds are in equities seeking “higher yield” … at least until interest rates start going up.

Equities have largely been left for dead by retail and institutions have concentrated themselves elsewhere. Hence the popularity of private equity, real estate, and other non-traditional investments. Canadian equities also exhibit decent inverse correlation to bond prices and should outperform in a rising rate environment as they have underperformed in the falling rate environment with no realized equity risk premium.

“If Garth is right, and the advance polls are pulling big numbers from older voters then the PC are a lock. Primarily because older voters vote PC.”

Older voters go for the dippers where I live. Whether its rational or not (I would argue not!), there are a lot of old people who truly believe we have a lot of inflation in Canada, and feel that low interest rate policy has actually been hurting them. Income splitting is largely irrelevant because most don’t really have a lot of income to split aside from their government benefits.

I highly doubt the TFSA is such a wedge issue as the (vocal) posters here make it out to be. Bottom line — I think the Tories are in trouble, and they seem to be playing the part.

#77 Smoking Man on 10.11.15 at 9:19 pm

Going to be a wild week on the markes.

Usa sent 2 F16 to take out infrastructure in Syria.
British pilot have green light to fire on Russian jets.

MH17 report out in a few days, along with counter Russia proof.

BOC rate cut

Its going to be wild.

Bet accordingly..

#78 White Crock BC on 10.11.15 at 9:20 pm

RE:The election’s fascinating, but it reminds me of a bidding war. Nobody wins.

Realtors win.
————————————–

Pretty sure the seller wins as well. Oftentimes selling at a price that is well over asking.

#79 For those about to flop... on 10.11.15 at 9:20 pm

#71 Lorne on 10.11.15 at 8:52 pm
#65 Leo Trollstoy
If Garth is right, and the advance polls are pulling big numbers from older voters then the PC are a lock. Primarily because older voters vote PC.

Congrats Steve!
…………..
Sorry, Leo….all the older voters I know, some who voted yesterday, are NOT voting for the PC’s. Now, does that mean much…..probably just a bit more than the drivel you posted!

/////////////////////////////////
Thanks Lorne you helped me complete my toilet trifecta .
I knew I forgot one step in yesterday’s post.
Freedom First makes me sick in the guts
Joking Man gives me the shits
Leo Toiletspray is what to use to get rid of the stench!

#80 conan on 10.11.15 at 9:29 pm

#73 young & foolish on 10.11.15 at 8:57 pm

I believe QE has distorted the markets to some degree.
It led to institutional investing that otherwise would not have happened.

#81 ROCK BEATS PAPER on 10.11.15 at 9:31 pm

Garth,

How do we double this figure up to 10% and beyond? We should be aggressively selling as much real esatate as possible at this time and at these prices.

We now have the third FED official, and this time a voting member, Dudley bringing NIRP into the equation:

“Some of the experiences [in Europe] suggest maybe can we use negative interest rates and the costs aren’t as great as you anticipate,” said William Dudley, the president of the New York Fed, in an interview on CNBC on Friday.”

The FED’s easing is not having the usual palliative on the markets as participants finally start to lose faith in central planning.

This will likely delay any real estate reversion.

A note on prefs: Since the FED brought ZIRP and QE, the retail investor and others have crowded into yield investments. The Prefs are a good example of a reversion. Since a lot of conservative investors were in these and did not anticipate 15-20% price drops, you can expect lots of tax loss selling. That is a buying opportunity, but these will not go back to $25 since the latest flavour of rate resets have a guaranteed floor.

Hapy Thanks Giving

#82 Turkeys | Realties.ca on 10.11.15 at 9:40 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/10/11/10914/ […]

#83 Ralph Cramdown on 10.11.15 at 9:41 pm

#53 IHCTD9 — “Harper gave an interview down in the US a while back and spoke to this fact. Socially conservative immigrants were the newest and fastest growing support base for the Conservatives.”

When I was younger, a lot of areas with high concentrations of new immigrants voted for what at the time was referred to as “Canada’s Natural Governing Party.” I figured many of them were committed Liberals. Lo and behold, the tide changed and a lot of those ridings went blue. So I updated my assumption, and now believe that a lot of them see the value in having their local MP in government rather than in opposition. Also, while it’s harder to model an individual voter’s plan for it, it pays to live in a riding that is in play rather than a safe seat for any party: That’s where the goodies go.

Contrast that with my riding. Five term incumbent sitting near the back corner. But she’ll probably be the next Minister of Health.

#84 Nora Lenderby on 10.11.15 at 9:42 pm

#8 Freedom First on 10.11.15 at 5:55 pm
…1) people who cannot or will not think, want what they want when they want it, no exception. 2) people who live like #1 want to do what they want to do without input from anyone to the contrary, yet are the first to cry/whine for a bailout when everything turns to crap, which it always does. 3) All of the above people refuse to take responsibility for their mistakes. 4) the majority of people lack discipline. 5) politicians…give the people what they want.

Things are complicated. It’s very slow, difficult and unglamorous to get out of a mess.

Dan Geer gave a talk on cybersecurity that contained the following words (not sure if they are his originally). I thought it was interesting in other contexts:

“The four verities of government are these:
. Most important ideas are unappealing
. Most appealing ideas are unimportant
. Not every problem has a good solution
. Every solution has side effects.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nT-TGvYOBpI
http://geer.tinho.net/geer.blackhat.6viii14.txt

#85 LH on 10.11.15 at 9:44 pm

Long lines = PC majority
Lefties are too busy working overtime or whining on Twitter to endure the wait

#86 TurnerNation on 10.11.15 at 9:56 pm

I forget, the egg.

Anyway, QSR (Timmy’s stock) assuming it holds 45 is probably a good buy. Good bye.

Ditto Cara (CAO.TO) with its cardboard offerings:
http://www.cara.com/brands.php

If you can’t eat ’em, join em at the dividend table.

As this is a boomer music blog…Jimmy Page + Black Crowes live – ‘What is and what should never be’
Southern swagger combined with axe-like dagger playing on the …ax. The only band Jimmy let play his Zep.
Best part is 3:45 where he shreds guitar like no other leading into a absolutely bombastic Bonzo drum line.

#87 young & foolish on 10.11.15 at 9:56 pm

“Compare and contrast with the Tories who grew spending from $208B (2005-2006) to $271B in 2011-2012.”

Great Financial Crisis increased every country’s debt.

“Its also noteworthy to note that government spending fell significantly in the 1996-1999 period. One of the hottest periods and most vibrant periods of productivity growth in the Canadian economy in recent history.”

Brief and not representative of government’s significant involvement in modern economies.

#88 TurnerNation on 10.11.15 at 9:56 pm

Link to above: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zikZw9lzKsE

#89 JSS on 10.11.15 at 10:01 pm

Long line ups at advance polls = pissed off Canadians = bye bye Conservatives

#90 conan on 10.11.15 at 10:03 pm

#85 LH on 10.11.15 at 9:44 pm

The Conservatives are trying their hardest to sound like an electable government but their record is abysmal.

Subvert Parliament
Omnibus bills
They cheat to win
They have a lot of internal problems with honesty
They hitched their wagon with incompetent war mongers.

Canada will tear itself apart if Harper wins again.

#91 Ryan Perich on 10.11.15 at 10:03 pm

In Edmonton it’s kind of the opposite rent vs prices….
My townhouse rent will go from 975 to 1200 for a 1950’s townhouse this December. I just called a house for rent by the university, and the DOWNSTAIRS on the OLD OLD house also built in the 50’s is renting for $1300 / month for a 1 bedroom BASEMENT suite (utilities included).
And prices to buy are stupid high too…..
there is NO way in Edmonton you can rent a house like that for under $3,000….just no chance.

#92 Victoria Real Estate Update on 10.11.15 at 10:05 pm

# 58 omg the original

Before the US bubble deflated people like you said high prices were the new norm there too. Then prices corrected in a manner that shocked almost everyone.

In the US they said there would be a soft landing. There wasn’t .

In the US bloggers like you with a vested interest in keeping prices high tried to convince others that bubble prices were the new norm. They were wrong as the old norm proved to be the only norm.

In the US they said it was different. But it wasn’t different and prices corrected in spectacular fashion.

They said the same in Japan, Ireland, Greece, Spain, Iceland, etc, but they were all wrong too.

I asked you a long time ago to find an example of a COUNTRY that had a housing bubble where the bubble deflated in a safe, controlled, soft landing manner. You have failed to provide an example. Why have you failed? It’s simple – there is no example to find.

You have talked on this blog about finding an investment property. You are probably a realtor.

There will be no safe, soft landing in Canada because it isn’t different here.

#93 young & foolish on 10.11.15 at 10:07 pm

I don’t know about the rest of you blog dogs, but I am not counting on 7% this year, or likely the next without significant risk taking.

Markets go up. They go down. Investors who worry react to them usually lose. Keep your eye on longer-term returns. They mean much more. — Garth

#94 gtrz4peace on 10.11.15 at 10:08 pm

Hi Garth – I’ve been a loyal reader, appreciating the financial advice you offer that is sound.

But you and others who ignore the sea change happening worldwide, I fear, are wrong. We the peoples of the world who are not the famed “1%” are sick of watching corporate criminals rape and pillage and steal, and then leave like locusts to destroy the next country.

THAT is a system as doomed to failure as the BC Real Estate Board telling people the housing bubble will never end.

Sometimes we do not choose the times, the times choose us. And worldwide, the time is NOW when people are beginning to wake up and stand up. Some of us — even some of us with money — could not be happier. Even if in the short term, there will be much social pain before we see the longterm social gains.

The heyday of runaway predatory capitalism will end soon, and I am looking forward to seeing what it can evolve into.

But new models are coming and perhaps sooner than we thought.

So — what portfolios do you offer that contain no fossil fuel stocks, no weapons, no GMO technology stocks? Portfolios focused on renewables, food security and social justice initiatives, etc.? Do these “portfolios” exist?

A whole bunch of folks like us are going to divest from the former and are only looking to invest in the latter.

I presume you bought Tesla and made 900%. Or is this just talk? — Garth

#95 Dirt Dog on 10.11.15 at 10:08 pm

#45 Nagraj

That was Entertaining!!!

#96 young & foolish on 10.11.15 at 10:13 pm

” … I figured many of them were committed Liberals. Lo and behold, the tide changed and a lot of those ridings went blue…. ”

Good point, but don’t forget to mention most of our recent immigrants are from different lands than those from the 60s and 70s.

#97 Smoking Man on 10.11.15 at 10:13 pm

#79 For those about to flop… on 10.11.15 at 9:20 pm
#71 Lorne on 10.11.15 at 8:52 pm
#65 Leo Trollstoy
If Garth is right, and the advance polls are pulling big numbers from older voters then the PC are a lock. Primarily because older voters vote PC.

Congrats Steve!
…………..
Sorry, Leo….all the older voters I know, some who voted yesterday, are NOT voting for the PC’s. Now, does that mean much…..probably just a bit more than the drivel you posted!

/////////////////////////////////
Thanks Lorne you helped me complete my toilet trifecta .
I knew I forgot one step in yesterday’s post.
Freedom First makes me sick in the guts
Joking Man gives me the shits
Leo Toiletspray is what to use to get rid of the stench!
….

You haven’t beem here that long have you.

#98 ben on 10.11.15 at 10:21 pm

you can get plenty for 350k in Montreal. And it’s not in Texas which is a bonus.

#99 West Coast on 10.11.15 at 10:34 pm

Just came back from voting in Vancouver Centre…no wait time – everyone was busy eating dinner I guess….. yesterday at 4pm the lines were out the door and the wait time must have been 2 hours plus….strategic voting plus strategic voting time……….

#100 Steve French on 10.11.15 at 10:38 pm

“The evidence suggesting that Australian real estate is a magnet for illicit Chinese funds is overwhelming.”

Documentary report on Australian public broadcasting tonight:

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2015/10/four-corners-targets-chinese-money-laundering/

(Uh oh! Will Garth delete this post ? Let’s see…)

Is this Australia? — Garth

#101 Mark on 10.11.15 at 11:07 pm

“I don’t know about the rest of you blog dogs, but I am not counting on 7% this year, or likely the next without significant risk taking.”

Markets are less risky after a prolonged period of no returns. And the TSX hasn’t moved forward in 8 years now. If anything, the implied future returns are significantly greater than 8% on account of experiencing zero returns for such a prolonged period. Adjusted into US dollars, the TSX index hasn’t delivered a return since 2006.

The greatest risk exists in markets when they’ve only gone up for a prolonged period of time, and are at their all-time highs. This most certainly doesn’t describe Canada’s stock market, that’s for sure.

#102 BS on 10.11.15 at 11:08 pm

The Federal government’s size and spending in the economy has expanded significantly under the Conservatives.* Not to mention the Conservative government now has taxpayers on the hook for up to $900B in loan guarantees against housing mortgages.

So what party exactly did you vote for? I’m not aware of any other party that is promoting the TFSA, but to paint the Conservatives as a party of smaller government and fiscal austerity just doesn’t seem accurate to me.

I would agree the Conservatives have not been as fiscally responsible as I would like, however, in comparison to the other parties promised $10 billion deficits, government run child care and expanding CMHC the Conservatives are far and away the most fiscally responsible of the three in contention. You can only vote for the best choice. There is no perfect choice.

#103 Smudgekin on 10.11.15 at 11:12 pm

British jets green light to fire on Russian.
Ain’t gonna happen. Maybe they’ll lock on and make lots of hot air. That’s just it – hot air. British already have agreements with Putin to stay out of Ukraine. They just sound hot air. Putin stays away from N. Ireland & Gibraltar Rock irritants.

#104 Bottoms_Up on 10.11.15 at 11:20 pm

So when Harper goes down in flames on Oct 19th, who will replace him? Oh right, he’s destroyed the ability for independent thought in his MPs, perhaps his dog would be a good successor?

Sorry. He has cats. — Garth

#105 Harbour on 10.11.15 at 11:24 pm

#91 Ryan Perich on 10.11.15 at 10:03 pm
In Edmonton it’s kind of the opposite rent vs prices….
My townhouse rent will go from 975 to 1200 for a 1950’s townhouse this December. I just called a house for rent by the university, and the DOWNSTAIRS on the OLD OLD house also built in the 50’s is renting for $1300 / month for a 1 bedroom BASEMENT suite (utilities included).
And prices to buy are stupid high too…..
there is NO way in Edmonton you can rent a house like that for under $3,000….just no chance.
……………………………………………………………………

I rent a beautiful fully furnished 1 bdr suite in Twin Brooks backing on a lake for $895 a month
It includes all utilities, internet and 1000 channels including Netflix
There’s nothing but Ferrari’s, Benz and Beamer’s in this neighborhood of $$Million + homes… except for my Blazer

#106 Bottoms_Up on 10.11.15 at 11:25 pm

#102 BS on 10.11.15 at 11:08 pm
————————-
“Fiscally responsible” does not mean “best for the economy”. In an economy growing at 1-2% such as Canada’s, you can run a deficit of 1-2% and actually reap the benefits of extra spending while achieving a budget balance the next year due to increased GDP.

#107 TSX or bust on 10.11.15 at 11:27 pm

#101 Mark on 10.11.15 at 11:07 pm

“I don’t know about the rest of you blog dogs, but I am not counting on 7% this year, or likely the next without significant risk taking.”

Markets are less risky after a prolonged period of no returns. And the TSX hasn’t moved forward in 8 years now. If anything, the implied future returns are significantly greater than 8% on account of experiencing zero returns for such a prolonged period. Adjusted into US dollars, the TSX index hasn’t delivered a return since 2006.

The greatest risk exists in markets when they’ve only gone up for a prolonged period of time, and are at their all-time highs. This most certainly doesn’t describe Canada’s stock market, that’s for sure.
———————–
Well that’s it I’m selling my house tomorrow and putting it all in the TSX. I knew there was a reason I came here. Thanks for the amazing recommendation. Where did you learn these amazing skills of observation. I see you post here a lot. Who are you?

#108 Bottoms_Up on 10.11.15 at 11:29 pm

#65 Leo Trollstoy on 10.11.15 at 8:30 pm
————————–
Think about it. People don’t rush out and wait in 2 hour lines and vote early just to select the incumbent. They are voting for change. These early voting stats are a harbinger that Trudeau will be our next PM.

#109 Bam Bam on 10.11.15 at 11:29 pm

Putin told everyone to get out and vote. Justin in the home stretch, Yee-haw!

#110 Retired Boomer - WI on 10.11.15 at 11:34 pm

#93 & #96 YOUND AND FOOLISH

As your name implies… do not sweat the markets.

1. Never put money into stocks you are not afraid to lose.
2. Balance what you are not afraid to lose with safe stuff.

On Elections: Vote from your Heart not your wallet.

Never try to second guess what government you would like. Vote for the one you wish you had instead.

#111 Gregor Samsa on 10.11.15 at 11:35 pm

#102 BS said:
>the Conservatives are far and away the most fiscally responsible of the three in contention.

To quote Harper “That’s simply not true.” Harper’s fiscal record is abysmal, and includes the following lowlights:

– Ran deficits every single year except for the election year.
– Achieved the one balanced budget by selling off one time assets such as Canadian embassies (who needs those?). Next year there will be no more embassies to sell…
– Holds the record for the largest single year deficit in Canadian history.
– $150 Billion added to the national debt.
– Grew the size of the public service to record highs, only to cut back from that high later, resulting in destroyed efficiency at government agencies (the responsible thing would have been to not grow it in the first place).
– Hundreds of millions blown on useless partisan government advertising (such as years of “economic action plan ads on TV”)
– Has the least qualified finance minister perhaps in all history (Joe Oliver).
– Presided over the run up of record high levels of Canadian personal debt.
– Presided over the run up of record high levels of Canadian government debt.

In comparison, Trudeau is saying 2 or 3 deficits to clean up the mess Harper is leaving us. That’s perfectly reasonable. And if by some fluke of the niquab, Harper wins the election, I guarantee you his next budget will not be balanced.

#112 BS on 10.11.15 at 11:39 pm

Mark: “That’s not what the 1990s told us…”

You have a selective memory about the Liberal ‘glory days’. The Liberals are the ones who started the CMHC credit bubble. Without their changes in the early 2000s to CMHC we wouldn’t have a housing bubble today. The Jr. Trudeau Liberals are promising to blow the bubble even bigger by allowing anyone to use RRSP money for a down payment.

If you compare the job the Liberals did relative to the world economy in the 90s it wasn’t so hot. The US was booming and reducing debt at the time under the Democrats. If you compare how the recent Conservatives have done relative to the world economy it looks pretty good. The US under the current Democrat regime have added way more debt per capita compared to Canada since Harper was elected. Comparing both eras, the Conservatives relative to the world economy and the US win no question.

#113 Mark on 10.11.15 at 11:43 pm

“I would agree the Conservatives have not been as fiscally responsible as I would like, however, in comparison to the other parties promised $10 billion deficits, government run child care and expanding CMHC the Conservatives are far and away the most fiscally responsible of the three in contention. You can only vote for the best choice. There is no perfect choice.”

In practice the Conservatives have presided over one of the largest expansions of the CMHC in history, with “F” even dropping, for a while, the qualification requirements for subprime mortgage insurance to the 0% down, 40 year amortizations.

I personally don’t agree with the childcare stuff, or creating government institutions around it. But I think its a far more equitable situation than the Tory income splitting which basically throws single mothers/fathers under the bus, while providing a huge relative benefit to married families. Married families who probably are statistically less likely to be in need of such benefit than the single mothers of the world who are often single of no real fault of their own. I do believe such a system is ripe for abuse and interprovincial wealth redistribution though — much like the contemporary EI has been abused by successive governments for redistributing wealth to the maritime provinces where much of the available work is seasonal in nature.

Additionally, the Tories have pursued some rather bizarre policies aimed largely at reducing the value of large businesses, typically creators of the highest quality (but not necessarily the most numerous) jobs in the Canadian economy. For instance, the TFSA. The tax preference accorded to small business. Etc.

I only have the record of the current Conservative government (dismal) and the record of the previous Liberal government (excellent) fiscally to go upon, and the Liberals, by far, blow the Conservatives away in practice. Having Paul Martin in the back room, and probably Ralph Goodale front and center as Finance Minister gives me a lot of comfort that policy will be designed to move the economy forward. Compared to the Tory policies which simply have done little other than expand government spending and create a dismally performing economy.

#114 Mark on 10.11.15 at 11:52 pm

“If you compare the job the Liberals did relative to the world economy in the 90s it wasn’t so hot. “

Canada, traditionally highly weighted towards the resource sector, was in a resource sector depression in the 1990s. Yet the Liberal government still managed to create an environment which allowed Canada’s tech sector to flourish. Many key reforms were implemented including the privatization of Canadian National Railways — ultimately a smashing success story in North American large business. I’m sure Chretien/Martin weren’t angels in everything they did surrounding the economy (*cough*gun registry*cough*), but their actual record throughout their administration puts the current Tory record to shame. With no benefit of high resource prices to boot.

“The Jr. Trudeau Liberals are promising to blow the bubble even bigger by allowing anyone to use RRSP money for a down payment. “

The bubble has already popped (prices have declined for the past couple years), so I don’t see how such is really even all that relevant. With ownership rates >70%, basically everyone who wanted to buy, has already bought. Okay, Trudeau might let the odd rare youngster put more of his/her RRSP into housing, but we’re talking about an incredibly limited number of people here who even have funds in a RRSP to make use of such a program. Its a promise/policy which really doesn’t amount to much compared to the actual Tory behaviour of pumping the housing bubble to such elevated heights that its collapse promises a significant era of consumer stagnation on account of deflation.

#115 Herf on 10.11.15 at 11:53 pm

re: #32 Trudeaumania 2 on 10.09.15 at 7:01 pm

“No way I can vote for the neocon.
Trudeau, you got my vote.”

Hey sonny, you appear to have been born after the FLQ crisis and/or never studied recent Canadian history (assuming it’s still taught in Canadian schools (aka. indoctrination centres).

Justin “MiniPET” Trudeau isn’t the reincarnation of his old man, Pierre Eliott Trudeau (PET). As much as I disliked a lot of the things PET did as Prime Minister, he actually was a leader with balls who took a stand on issues without backing down and he didn’t pander to those who opposed him, or to the bleeding-heart liberal media, as seen here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7_a2wa2dd4

The video clips at the following links show what you’re voting for:

http://www.therebel.media/justin_trudeau_says_harper_s

http://www.therebel.media/human_rights_activist_trudeau_s

I think Justin inherited his brains and personality from his mother.

#116 BS on 10.11.15 at 11:54 pm

In comparison, Trudeau is saying 2 or 3 deficits to clean up the mess Harper is leaving us.

Trudeau is promising the biggest deficits of any party running. His dad ran a deficit every year but 1. The Liberal gun registry alone wasted more money that all the things you listed.

If you think Harper was bad with spending Jr. Trudeau will worse. He is actually promising $10 billion deficits per year to start (from a balanced budget). That is on top of tax increases and cutting the TFSA. Jr. Trudeau will be a disaster if elected. Nice hair, no brain.

#117 For those about to flop... on 10.11.15 at 11:55 pm

#97 Smoking Man on 10.11.15 at 10:13 pm
#79 For those about to flop… on 10.11.15 at 9:20 pm
#71 Lorne on 10.11.15 at 8:52 pm
#65 Leo Trollstoy
If Garth is right, and the advance polls are pulling big numbers from older voters then the PC are a lock. Primarily because older voters vote PC.

Congrats Steve!
…………..
Sorry, Leo….all the older voters I know, some who voted yesterday, are NOT voting for the PC’s. Now, does that mean much…..probably just a bit more than the drivel you posted!

/////////////////////////////////
Thanks Lorne you helped me complete my toilet trifecta .
I knew I forgot one step in yesterday’s post.
Freedom First makes me sick in the guts
Joking Man gives me the shits
Leo Toiletspray is what to use to get rid of the stench!
….

You haven’t beem here that long have you.

————————————
Your lovin it ,don’t pretend you don’t .
Time for you to be the student for once.
Goodnight grasshopper …

#118 Mark on 10.12.15 at 12:02 am

“The US under the current Democrat regime have added way more debt per capita compared to Canada since Harper was elected. Comparing both eras, the Conservatives relative to the world economy and the US win no question.”

Just out of curiosity, how did Trudeau (Sr.) compare to Presidents Nixon, Ford, and Carter?

I wasn’t alive at the time, and I’m too lazy to do research tonight, but it seems to me that the Canadian economy significantly outperformed the US economy in that era as well. At least the TSE did (TSE300 = 2000, Dow = 1000 in 1980!). Am I right?

#119 Leo Trollstoy on 10.12.15 at 12:05 am

in comparison to the other parties promised $10 billion deficits, government run child care and expanding CMHC the Conservatives are far and away the most fiscally responsible of the three in contention

This is why the PC has this election won at the federal level.

#120 Yuus bin Haad on 10.12.15 at 12:17 am

Foreign buyers an election issue? Lynton Crosby.

#121 kommykim on 10.12.15 at 12:18 am

RE: #116 BS on 10.11.15 at 11:54 pm
If you think Harper was bad with spending Jr. Trudeau will worse. He is actually promising $10 billion deficits per year to start (from a balanced budget).

You are basing your argument on a false premise. Harper’s preelection budget is not balanced.
At least Trudeau is being honest.

#122 Mike T. on 10.12.15 at 12:31 am

this is fun

Everywhere you see the word economy, especially in a speech by a politician, replace it with ‘plan to screw people over’.

Ill go first.

Homeownership rates @72.5% will be good for the economy

Homeownership rates @72.5% will be good for the plan to screw people over.

Protect the economy is one banner you see everywhere

Protect the plan to screw people over

You can’t be mad at them, they told you what was really happening, you just mis understood the meanings.

They all do it.

Obama’s economy is amazing.

Obama’s plan to……

I am thankful for them because they taught me what i am not!

#123 Great Canadian Bubble Co. on 10.12.15 at 12:38 am

I think your argument that Chinese buyers are not the reason behind high housing prices in Vancouver is somewhat true. Obviously they are not directly responsible (cheap money, weather, land lock, etc. has more of an impact), but with 4-5% of the most visible property going to absentee owners from China, it clearly has a measurable psychological impact on the local market.

It is real enough to spur the masses on that they are either missing out because of it, or may in fact score real estate gold as a result.

#124 Mark on 10.12.15 at 12:41 am

“He is actually promising $10 billion deficits per year to start (from a balanced budget). That is on top of tax increases and cutting the TFSA. Jr. Trudeau will be a disaster if elected. Nice hair, no brain.”

Are deficits a problem if the money is used to develop/upgrade/maintain/invest in depleted infrastructure? Because that appears to be a cornerstone of the Liberal platform which naturally will end up causing some deficits, but should result in the formation of useful long-term assets.

Trudeau might have flunked out of engineering school (as 2/3rds of first year students typically do!). But I hope he at least walked away with an appreciation for the work that engineers do, and can deal with the infrastructure, scientific and engineering community in a far more constructive manner than the Harper government has.

#125 Tony on 10.12.15 at 12:50 am

Something has to be done about money laundering in Canada. Without the foreign buyer real estate in Canada would cost the same or less than in America. The only other way would be to freeze Millennials from buying to protect the rest of the population the sane buyers who don’t pay 4 times what a house is worth. This would also save the taxpayers a fortune when the housing market implodes because of sheer stupidity. I think the offspring of the Millennials should have to pay for the mistakes of their elders not the taxpayers of Canada. That way the taxpayers would be paid back the trillions the Millennials cost the present day taxpayers of Canada.

#126 Great Canadian Bubble Co. on 10.12.15 at 12:50 am

#60 your post made me smile. That is the Canada I remember. Thanks for sharing! Happy Thanksgiving Blog Dogs

#127 texasT on 10.12.15 at 12:51 am

#203 Smoking Man on 10.10.15 at 3:49 pm

Ok finally , my kid and his partners finally get their first app published to the apple store.
————–
1.2 million apps available – people don’t even bother getting 10 apps…

#128 pathcontrolmonk on 10.12.15 at 12:53 am

I (40 yo white male) voted today in Richmond, BC and I was one of perhaps 3 or 4 visibly non-immigrants there to vote among perhaps 200 people. Whether that is indicative of the demographics of the community, or the fact that new Canadians are more participatory in their adopted country I am not sure. What the chubby, Caucasian, middle-aged Elections Canada woman did say to me was, “It has been a crazy day, glad you came.” Honestly though, I have no idea what she meant? I wasn’t sure whether to vote Green or Libertarian, so, as an American/Canadian dual I voted for the Conservative incumbent to spite the minority

#129 Comical Hero on 10.12.15 at 1:05 am

#103 Smudgekin on 10.11.15 at 11:12 pm
British jets green light to fire on Russian.
Ain’t gonna happen. Maybe they’ll lock on and make lots of hot air. That’s just it – hot air. British already have agreements with Putin to stay out of Ukraine. They just sound hot air. Putin stays away from N. Ireland & Gibraltar Rock irritants.”

Where’s Tom Cruise when you need him, the Top Gun- Mission Impossible combo may be just what is needed to save the world…

#130 Tony on 10.12.15 at 1:14 am

Re: #91 Ryan Perich on 10.11.15 at 10:03 pm

Rents are in a free-fall in Edmonton. I think you meant to say your rent is falling from 1200 to 975 dollars this December. The vacancy rate is doubling every six months.

#131 Steve French on 10.12.15 at 2:36 am

You know.. the more I read about Chinese property investors in Canada, the more outraged I get.

Think of it.

The gall.. the sheer.. hubris, of it all.

Untold dozens of wealthy Chinese people…. are taking their hard earned money… built up through years and years of diligent work and saving….

… and investing it in Canada…. and supporting our economy!

This is completely outrageous and needs to be stopped immediately…. for the sake of all our children and our children’s children and our children’s children’s children.

#132 DON on 10.12.15 at 2:45 am

#65 Leo Trollstoy on 10.11.15 at 8:30 pm

If Garth is right, and the advance polls are pulling big numbers from older voters then the PC are a lock. Primarily because older voters vote PC.

Congrats Steve!

******************************
The pole I lined up for 15 minutes prior. Mix of people mostly middle age, some young, some old. Funny thing – the vote was held in a local church and when church got out (just happened to be leaving) most if not all vent right to their cars. Voting station right there…local church…local poll…they don’t leave in the area??

#133 DON on 10.12.15 at 2:47 am

Spelling mistakes fixed.

The pole I lined up for 15 minutes prior. Mix of people mostly middle age, some young, some old. Funny thing – the vote was held in a local church and when church got out (just happened to be leaving) most if not all went right to their cars. Voting station right there…local church…local poll…they don’t live in the area??

#134 Entrepreneur on 10.12.15 at 2:51 am

B.C. Liberal Premier Christy Clark also said “By moving foreign owners out of the market housing prices will drop.” Christy Clarks ratings are falling. Child poverty is one of the highest in Canada but yet she was going to stop traffic on a bridge in Vancouver with 150? other people to perform yoga!!!

As for voting for the Liberals for legalizing pot Trudeau pointed out that he will be looking at it in about 2 or 3 years. Good luck with the so-called legalization. Trudeau will get a lot of wishful voters here; the other parties should say the same. Also, the Liberals are handing out candies but on a deficit and for years. Easy talk but payback will be a bitch. They also agree with Harper on many Bills so don’t trust them.

Conservative and the Liberals are the same and both had their time in the spotlight; time to give both a boot and vote NDP who will speak up for Canadians and fight for us. The NDP will fund for mental health which is in dire need (they end up in the hospital, no place to go). By the way, the NDP will look at the fine print of the TPP to make sure it is in the best interest for Canadians.

Happy Thanksgiving and all a good night!

#135 PT on 10.12.15 at 2:58 am

“As you can see, 90.3% of all buyers in the Vancouver area came from BC. Another 4% were refugees from Canada. So a relative handful either emigrated from outside the country or were foreign investors”

Only the Real Estate Boards, the government’s and you are believed in these number. no one else. Pretty sad case.

#136 M on 10.12.15 at 3:06 am

Nobody wins ?
HA !!!
I do :)

May the prime interest drop to 0.25 % !!

Shorting the crap out of everything canadian will be the national sport in a year time :)

#137 voting and boating on 10.12.15 at 3:11 am

1 hour wait at advance polls on south vancouver island today for “We are voting”
tantruming 3 year-old after ballots cast and loading back into car “I want to go boating!”

#138 M on 10.12.15 at 3:12 am

Guys… stop it. grow up. elections in modern “democracies” are not about any ideology a party or other might have.
is only about how one spend the public dough, politically correct speeches and groveling to the idiot masses (idiot masses because the lore said masses are not citizens these days but rather an entertainment mob)

since there will be no more public dough to spend in the next 2 to 3 years, what difference does it make who will come in power .

here.. “democracy” to you.

#139 Frank on 10.12.15 at 3:20 am

I wish the rest of the rental market in Van was like that. A townhouse in my area rents for $2900 or can be bought for $800K (~$3K mortgage).

#140 Freedom First on 10.12.15 at 3:29 am

#92 Victoria Real Estate Update

I admire your intestinal fortitude to keep posting the truth.

This Blog saves lives.

The economy does not ruin people. People do it to themselves. Trust me.

#141 Freedom First on 10.12.15 at 3:39 am

#117 For those about to flop…

You calling Smoking Man grasshopper. Now that is hilarious.

#142 M on 10.12.15 at 5:38 am

For the ones that still believe in “location , location, location” when in a bubble:

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/making-sense/location-location-location-real-estate-bs/

:)

#143 M on 10.12.15 at 5:51 am

Can we laugh ? Can we ? Can we ? huh ? huh? huh ?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/mortgage-rule-crackdown-spurring-move-to-uninsured-lending-imf-warns-1.2988637

..old..but quite telling… Can’t even imagine what will be with 0.25% prime..

#144 M on 10.12.15 at 5:54 am

..and Gartho baby.. write a post about how the 5 or so big banks in Canada will NOT be affected by this:

http://www.canadalend.com/blog/is-a-private-mortgage-right-for-you/

:)

Sure. The effect is zero. — Garth

#145 M on 10.12.15 at 6:02 am

..hell..am I active today or what.. might be my night shift ending,,

..from 2 big to fail to 2 big to bail:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/banks-got-114b-from-governments-during-recession-1.1145997

.. beautiful baby ! Gents..please start a bet log for which one will go down first . Will it be Scotia ?.. BMO ?..have your pick :)

..can’t possibly believe that the good central bank will bail them out again with 4 or 500 bills ?
:)

No bank will fail. — Garth

#146 paul a on 10.12.15 at 6:43 am

now for some good news- our blue jays staved of elimination and looked like the champs we all hope they will be …go jays

now for some reality, if im not mistaken the current TFSA rules and limits are essentially good until such time a change in legislation is brought, that may or may not happen after the current election, my point: i hope that the readers of this pathetic (but Very Us full) blog are loading up there TFSA accounts to the maximum in order to grandfather this hidden win fall and future benefits, even if you have to borrow at rock bottom rates to do so

good advice garth?

#147 David W2 on 10.12.15 at 7:16 am

Garth,
If all the parties plan to fan the flames, do we just jump into RE cuz it ain’t coming down? If you can’t beat ’em, join ’em, right?

#148 Herb on 10.12.15 at 7:19 am

Does any of this look familiar?

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/is-the-housing-bubble-2-0-about-to-encounter-a-pin/?utm_source=wysija&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Mailing+List+PM+Monday

#149 Julia on 10.12.15 at 8:41 am

Poll: Vote for a party or vote for candidate?

I usually vote for a party but this year the candidate I prefer is for a party I would not vote for. Boundaries have changes so I’m in a different riding. All 3 main candidates are new to me.

#150 Ralph Cramdown on 10.12.15 at 10:24 am

#147 Herb — “Does any of this look familiar?”

Yep, it fits the classic crackpot pattern. The first chart is nominal house prices for 10 US cities. The second one is inflation adjusted incomes. Was the author too stupid or lazy to create an inflation adjusted national home price chart, which you can do in about fifteen seconds at FRED? Or did the bogus comparison better fit his narrative?

Speaking of crackpots, what’s with some of the goofy election predictions here? I can understand shading the pollsters’ predictions one way or another to account for trends you see continuing until election day, or for theories about sampling errors with a persistent skew. But to make a prediction with no basis in the data whatsoever (“Conservative majority!”) is just to hang a big Crackpot sign around your own neck.

#151 John on 10.12.15 at 10:26 am

I live in a high end condo in Yorkville, Toronto. Its packed full of Asian students. Hard to believe that they are having zero impact on our real estate market.

Seriously? Students of Asian heritage renting condos? Oh, the horror. — Garth

#152 Broke Dick on 10.12.15 at 10:30 am

#100 Steve French on 10.11.15 at 10:38 pm
“The evidence suggesting that Australian real estate is a magnet for illicit Chinese funds is overwhelming.”

Documentary report on Australian public broadcasting tonight:

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2015/10/four-corners-targets-chinese-money-laundering/

(Uh oh! Will Garth delete this post ? Let’s see…)

Is this Australia? — Garth
====================================
Of course not, it’s Canada.
It’s different here.

#153 conan on 10.12.15 at 10:31 am

“No banks will fail.” -Garth

Not so sure, many would have failed without the bail out and Governments have sworn that will not be another one. Instead, they cleared the docket and legislated Bail in legislation.

2020 is the year when all good countries will have “Bail in ” in place.

Tick tock.

No Canadian bank came close to faltering in 2008, nor would have without the government boost. There is no bail-in provision in Canada that will affect any depositor or borrower. Period. — Garth

#154 LP on 10.12.15 at 10:49 am

#133 DON on 10.12.15 at 2:47 am

Voting station right there…local church…local poll…they don’t live in the area??
*****************************
Maybe not. Our polling station on the 19th is our church but we couldn’t vote there yesterday after service because our advance poll is the town legion.

Weird eh? (or is that “wierd”?)

#155 Steerage Bilge on 10.12.15 at 11:01 am

Trashing Harpo in the Guardian.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/12/stephen-harper-last-remnant-george-w-bush-north-america

#156 For those about to flop... on 10.12.15 at 11:09 am

#141 Freedom First on 10.12.15 at 3:39 am
#117 For those about to flop…

You calling Smoking Man grasshopper. Now that is hilarious.

——————————————————-
Damn , the student part was meant to annoy him not the grasshopper part .
Ah well, as long as it’s not all one way traffic…

#157 DisgustMadeMePost on 10.12.15 at 11:17 am

Just got back from the Kootenays… Where it is notoriously PC country. Apparently no party even puts up signs as they just KNOW blue has it wrapped up. This year is much different. Signs everywhere… Orange everywhere … As well as blue.

A bit of Albertan sentiment has overflowed here.

#158 Stoopid Idiot on 10.12.15 at 11:21 am

Merchants of Debt.. Love it

http://usawatchdog.com/were-in-a-new-recession-john-williams/

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com
(Early Sunday Release)

At the beginning of 2015, economist John Williams predicted the U.S. economy would continue to slow down to stall speed, but it is much worse than that. Williams explains, “I’ll contend we’re in a new recession and recognized likely to be timed from December of 2014. . . . The downturn in 2007 wasn’t recognized until the end of 2008. I think by the end of this year, people will recognize the economy turned down in December of 2014. I’ll tell you why I say that. There are a couple of very solid leading indicators . . . of the broad economy. One is industrial production. Industrial production contracted in both the 1st and 2nd quarter of this year. Those are the official numbers out of the Federal Reserve. Estimations for industrial production are for continued contraction. Industrial production used to be the GDP measure. . . . Retail sales contracted in the first quarter, adjusted for inflation. Year over year growth have dropped to levels you only see in a recession. It’s the same thing again with industrial production.

https://youtu.be/sAA_9UMAhIQ

#159 Freeman on 10.12.15 at 11:21 am

more data showing that the U.S. will soon fall into recession:

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/10/09/last-time-this-ratio-reached-that-level-stocks-crashed/

“This can get ugly in a hurry, ranging from a business cycle recession, as in 2001, to a panic, as seen in October 2008, when the supply chain began to freeze over. During both periods, stocks crashed. And now stocks are perched at ludicrously high levels, teetering, waiting for just such an event.”

The US will not soon fall into a recession. — Garth

#160 Stoopid Idiot on 10.12.15 at 11:25 am

http://www.jsmineset.com/

Posted October 11th, 2015 at 10:45 PM (CST) by Bill Holter & filed under Bill Holter.

Dear CIGAs,

I must apologize for leaving so many e-mails and comments unanswered last week. My wife Kathryn and I travelled to northern Michigan and the upper peninsula for the week and saw some wonderful fall foliage. Cell phone and wifi coverage was somewhat spotty. While there we celebrated her birthday and our 10 year wedding anniversary. The week away did allow me to step back from the global economic and financial fray to a vantage point of the very big picture and headlines rather than minutia.
Last week was a true dichotomy of fantasy and reality. We witnessed a massive short squeeze and the best week for U.S. equities in over a year. While the markets were oversold and due a bounce, the “bounce” came with a backdrop of very dire news! Day after day brought forth new and consistently worse news.
In no particular order of importance; Deutsche Bank reported a $6.5 billion loss (10% of their net equity), UBS joined the derivatives implosion party and required a capital raise, Glencore ‘fessed up to $100 billion in debt versus the previous $19 billion (with three or four other major commodity firms in the same boat), the Bank of England required their banks to disclose how much of this debt they were exposed to, China’s yuan surpassed the yen in the settlement of global trade, China also went live with their alternative settlement of trade in yuan (non dollars), Saudi Arabia and Norway disclosed they are now in deficit and thus no longer “buyers” of dollars (are they now sellers?) …and the U.S. was effectively kicked out of the Middle East! I might add that several recent economic reports even though fudged, massaged and outright falsehoods were unable to hide the reality of global AND U.S. recession and decline in the real economic sectors.
To top all of this off, the U.S. Fed has now attracted naysayers including our (their) own bought and paid for media. They have effectively lost credibility. Since the last Fed meeting, the world has collectively come to the conclusion they have no options left and credible monetary policy is not a possibility. In fact, Mr. Trichet of Europe’s central bank has admitted that global central banks http://finance.yahoo.com/news/central-bank-cavalry-no-longer-191849195.html can no longer save the day or even buy time. On the other side of the financial coin, John Boehner resigned a couple of weeks back and his proposed replacement Congressman Kevin McCarthy withdrew http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2015/10/08/house-speaker-john-boehner-surprised-kevin-mccarthys-withdrawal-race/73586678/ his name from consideration. Please understand what this really means, the U.S. House of Representatives has now been hijacked by a minority which controls the majority. Normally this might be a good thing as a divided Congress cannot spend money (it does not have). Currently I believe this is a very bad event because it proves the further loss of credibility in U.S. leadership is valid.

#161 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 10.12.15 at 11:26 am

Garth, as usually the politicians are way behind the curve with what really happened to inflame real estate prices in Vancouver. It didn’t just begin two or three years ago. It began with EXPO 67. We Vancouverites watched it and are still watching it happen. I lined up to pre-buy a condo in North Vancouver about 7 years ago. There were about 30 very well dressed Koreans with expensive cars at the front of the line. When I got finally got into the sales office I noticed that one of the sales ladies was Korean. These Koreans had already snapped up the 1 to 1.5 million $ upper level condos with the great views. And people wonder why Canadian are pissed. Christy Clarke is a smiling moron who didn’t even get voted in. Didn’t even get a seat in Parliament and yet she leads us. FK Canada is not the country we thought it was nor will it ever be again.

#162 For those about to flop... on 10.12.15 at 11:32 am

#145 paul a on 10.12.15 at 6:43 am
now for some good news- our blue jays staved of elimination and looked like the champs we all hope they will be …go jays

now for some reality, if im not mistaken the current TFSA rules and limits are essentially good until such time a change in legislation is brought, that may or may not happen after the current election, my point: i hope that the readers of this pathetic (but Very Us full) blog are loading up there TFSA accounts to the maximum in order to grandfather this hidden win fall and future benefits, even if you have to borrow at rock bottom rates to do so

good advice garth?
//////////////////////////////////////////////
As you probably know ,the three main parties have only talked about changing the contribution limit.
No one has said anything about rolling anything back and so if you don’t lose the contribution room why would you go into debt to load up your TFSA.?
I not like the markets are on fire or anything anyway.
I will try to keep mine maxed out but I’m not going to cry if I can’t because there are a lot of self employed people who don’t earn similar amounts each year.
If you make it a priority ,eventually you will catch back up no matter what the limit is unless you are pissing your money up against a wall.

#163 Stoopid Idiot on 10.12.15 at 11:34 am

Hey Garth… Happy Turket Day, enjoy the Day

Farage provokes Hollande to admit Brexit is logical
Posted on October 07

UKIP leader Nigel Farage provoked French President Hollande to admit in a debate in the European Parliament, Strasbourg today that Brexit was a logical choice.

Speaking in the presence of Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande, the UKIP leader said that we are living in a German dominated Europe which is causing resentment and division. After badly mishandling the migrant crisis, Europe was not an area of peace but of disharmony.

https://youtu.be/LLeFfiYgcro

#164 TurnerNation on 10.12.15 at 11:35 am

Conspiracy theories are fun but ultimately useless when confronted with the market itself: Strong dividend yields, many in excess (double) of S&P500’s avg. yield. Tons of cash on the books. Layoffs galore.

Globbleing has begun in Canada. Suncor (Buffet invested) filling its maw with Cdn. Oil Sands. More to come I am sure. Find the horse to bet on.

Slightly embarassed to say it, I went long SLV.US (silver) last week via a calendar spread. Testing my mettle.

#165 Cici on 10.12.15 at 11:36 am

#41 TurnerNation

Good post. Timmies and Starbucks are for posers who don’t know anything about real food or coffee.

#166 For those about to flop... on 10.12.15 at 11:44 am

#164 Cici on 10.12.15 at 11:36 am
#41 TurnerNation

Good post. Timmies and Starbucks are for posers who don’t know anything about real food or coffee.

/////////////://////////////////
You got that right Cici.
It helps that they are ubiquitous but I have no trouble walking past them.
I rather support “ma and pa” type of establishments.
The coffee and food is better and posers aren’t in there to steal the wifi.
Use your local businesses or lose them,it’s that simple.

#167 chumpy le chump on 10.12.15 at 11:48 am

dude,

Have to disagree on this one. HAM buyers may be 5% of the total transactions but they are spending 50% of the total value of those transactions.

i live in West Van, and the listings are dominated by either Chinese or Persian realtors. Take a drive in any neighborhood besides Horseshoe bay or Eagle Harbor. Old-school white West Van realtors are having a tough go of it, because so few white families are moving to West Van.

The Persian and Chinese realtors successfully convince the sellers that the only buyer for their house is a foreign buyer who will only deal with their own kind. Foreign chinese buyers do not buy from whitey.

The surge in prices in East Van (which is more expensive than parts of West Van- go figure- you get free needles in your back alley) is due to West Siders selling to foreigners fro $2.5M +, enabling them to outbid other buyers, driving prices over the listing price. What do they care if they overpay by $100K? They just cashed out of the west side for $2.5M on a place they bought 15 years ago for $600K.

The sellers in West Van are the same. Tend to be older empty nesters, selling a place they bought 25 years ago. They’re taking their winning and paying $800K to $1m for a condo which would normally cost half that. But since they figure they got a pile of free money, they don’t care.

#168 TurnerNation on 10.12.15 at 12:13 pm

One more rate cut would mint another round of snaggle tooth Long Branch Millionaires.

More of their sh_t bungs would surge toward a 1 mill:

http://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/16177599/21-BELLMAN-AVE-Toronto-Ontario-M8W4A2-Alderwood

#169 Cyclist on 10.12.15 at 12:15 pm

35 BCG – most people dont want 5 acres, or to live in those areas where it is valued cheaply. I can get you ten acres for $100K in the boonies, or larger pieces closer in for $10-20K per acre.

#170 TurnerNation on 10.12.15 at 12:16 pm

164 cici I’m not even a “foodie”. Meal of choice would be me BBQing a steak I’ve marinated. Refuse SBUX, too.

#171 pinstripe on 10.12.15 at 12:20 pm

#135 PT on 10.12.15 at 2:58 am
“As you can see, 90.3% of all buyers in the Vancouver area came from BC. Another 4% were refugees from Canada. So a relative handful either emigrated from outside the country or were foreign investors”

Only the Real Estate Boards, the government’s and you are believed in these number. no one else. Pretty sad

———————————————————-

What I hear from the old geezers living on the wet coast, geezers that take pride in having their ears very close to the ground at all times, is that the 4% (people) use off shore money for real estate purchases. The off shore money accounts for about 90% of the real estate money on the wet coast. This One person would buy many units under one name. CASH money. NO mortgage.

if people heads are counted then the stats are probably right. OTOH, if $$ are counted then the stats are very fuzzy and can be interpreted and implied many ways. it all depends on the interpreter and their answer could be right. The process for the stats is well designed.

#172 Leo Trollstoy on 10.12.15 at 12:49 pm

Use your local businesses or lose them,it’s that simple

Nobody goes to local shops. That’s why they’re local.

#173 Leo Trollstoy on 10.12.15 at 12:53 pm

East Van skyrocketing in price too huh? That’s insane. Toronto and Van, two crazy peas in the real estate pod.

#174 Mark on 10.12.15 at 1:07 pm

” i hope that the readers of this pathetic (but Very Us full) blog are loading up there TFSA accounts to the maximum in order to grandfather this hidden win fall and future benefits, even if you have to borrow at rock bottom rates to do so “

If the decision to shut down the TFSA is made, I have my doubts as to whether there would be a lengthy period of the tax system providing an advantage. I suspect the accounts would simply be de-registered as of an implementation date, and the price of the shares in the account as of the de-registration date would become the cost base for the purposes of computing taxes.

But truth be told, since neither of the two TFSA-disliking major parties have put legislation on the table, any guesses on how a transition would look are, at best, guesses. Nobody, let alone Garth, can give you any solid advice along those lines. I doubt TFSA owners would be penalized under any non-Conservative regime retroactively, but it would not take much simply to wind the TFSA down rapidly if a future government chose to do so. Contrast such with the RRSP which is designed with integration with the rest of the pension/retirement savings system in mind, and for which the abolishment of such would require the government to implement something to replace it as well as a whole host of transitional measures as overnight de-registration would force a huge (and likely unacceptable) tax liability on every RRSP owner.

#175 TurnerNation on 10.12.15 at 1:32 pm

Feeling Looney?

From marketwatch.com:

Aeterna Zentaris Inc. AEZS, -12.32% (AEZ) (the “Company”), a specialty biopharmaceutical company engaged in developing and commercializing novel treatments in oncology, endocrinology and women’s health, today announced … the decision to close its Quebec City office.

David A. Dodd, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Company commented, “After a comprehensive review, the Company’s Board reached the decision to take these actions, including the closure of our Quebec City office by the end of December, making all associates based there redundant. We will transfer many of the functions now performed in our Quebec City office to other personnel and we will strengthen our financial team with the addition of new finance and accounting personnel in our Charleston, South Carolina office.

#176 Tony on 10.12.15 at 1:37 pm

Re: #163 TurnerNation on 10.12.15 at 11:35 am

The idea is to quote “catch” silver after one of the infamous FED beatdowns on the precious metals. Short term commodities look good but as America enters recession even with negative interest rates gold will outperform silver as silver acts more like a commodity rather than a precious metal.

#177 Foreign Money on 10.12.15 at 1:56 pm

Garth – you did it again.
You are being as closed-minded as the realtors.

The issue isn’t foreign buyers vs domestic buyers.

The issue is foreign earned MONEY vs domestic earned MONEY.

It is about why some neighborhoods are considered poor based on their income tax filings (there’s data for this, I’ve sent it to you via email!) but yet houses cost 2m+ each.

So stop it. You are confusing the issue with post after post. Dig a bit deeper please.

#178 SWL1976 on 10.12.15 at 2:10 pm

#165 For those about to flop…

Use your local businesses or lose them,it’s that simple.

You got that right.

Good to see TurnerNation is on a roll again. I can’t for the life of me comprehend the starbucks, timmy’s fascination, but then again I have never been one to homogenize with the herd.

CHERRY BLOSSOM – I have no dog in the Vancouver RE fight, but you had me at…

Christy Clarke is a smiling moron who didn’t even get voted in

#77 Smoking Man

Going to be a wild week on the markes.

Usa sent 2 F16 to take out infrastructure in Syria.
British pilot have green light to fire on Russian jets.

MH17 report out in a few days, along with counter Russia proof.

I agree, and am looking forward to how the state and corporate controlled media here in the west are going to spin this one…

FREEDOM ain’t FREE comes to mind

#179 For those about to flop... on 10.12.15 at 2:15 pm

#171 Leo Trollstoy on 10.12.15 at 12:49 pm
Use your local businesses or lose them,it’s that simple

Nobody goes to local shops. That’s why they’re local.

/////////////////////////////////////
This statement is not true .
One example is when I am vacationing in the states at the gas station or supermarket I just ask the local where is the best place to grab coffee/lunch .
People will go out of their way to help you find that spot because they know you are trying to find out what makes that town different from the next .
People hear my accent and see my B.C plates and will recommend local bars,campgrounds, hikes and such where as in Starbucks it’s all business ,get in and get out.

#180 Daisy Mae on 10.12.15 at 2:19 pm

#113: “Tory income splitting which basically throws single mothers/fathers under the bus, while providing a huge relative benefit to married families….”

******************

Income splitting doesn’t do much for the great majority of seniors, either…

#181 Daisy Mae on 10.12.15 at 2:27 pm

#113: “Having Paul Martin in the back room, and probably Ralph Goodale front and center as Finance Minister gives me a lot of comfort that policy will be designed to move the economy forward….”

******************

Agree wholeheartedly. Trudeau may reverse his position re TFSA limits. We just don’t know. I, personally, take ‘promises’ with a grain of salt. And so, voting based on this alone as some posters have done, is ridiculous.

#182 kommykim on 10.12.15 at 2:36 pm

RE: #78 White Crock BC on 10.11.15 at 9:20 pm
RE:The election’s fascinating, but it reminds me of a bidding war. Nobody wins.
Realtors win.
————————————–
Pretty sure the seller wins as well. Oftentimes selling at a price that is well over asking.

Only if the seller exits the market. Otherwise he just loses in the next bidding war.

#183 Daisy Mae on 10.12.15 at 2:40 pm

#131: “….for the sake of all our children and our children’s children and our children’s children’s children.”

*****************

You remember! That was the cutest commercial, was it not? :-)

#184 kilby on 10.12.15 at 2:41 pm

Anything Christy Clark says has to be taken with a tumbler of salt….Like Real Estate Board statistics…..

#185 Daisy Mae on 10.12.15 at 2:44 pm

#148: “…usually vote for a party but this year the candidate I prefer is for a party I would not vote for.”

***********************

Do you actually believe a single candidate can/will make a difference?

#186 Brunett43 on 10.12.15 at 2:45 pm

In Canada we hold elections in October because….
IT’S THE BEST TIME FOR PICKING OUT A TURKEY!!!

Gobble…gobble….

#187 not 1st on 10.12.15 at 2:57 pm

Garth, your ‘research’ into vancouver buyers goes just far enough to justify your opinion.

Try asking how many people are signatory to the mortgage title and their nationalities. Ask if the money was cash and if it landed on Canadian shores via a back door line of credit from Macau.

Chinese people cannot move more than $50k in cash abroad, but if they are rich enough, black market lenders in Macau will extend them a LOC if they gamble there. The people then spend a little jack around the casinos, then repatriate the remainder to Canada where they will buy a house for cash with the hopes of selling it in a few years and pocket the capital gains.

#188 Hellandback on 10.12.15 at 3:00 pm

I’m sure all the money laundering agents would be jumping to fill out the stats paperwork. When billions are being siphoned into Vancouver only the naive will bite on the industry’s numbers and BC government’s tailored script lines.

http://www.theprovince.com/travel/Chinese+money+launderers+snap+Vancouver+real+estate+because+lenient+border+laws+loose/11262931/story.html

#189 Vanreal on 10.12.15 at 3:05 pm

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/10/11/10914/#comment-403083

Actually east van is becoming more desirable than the west side. It’s turning into the west side of 30 years ago. Good neighbourhood and friendly neighbours. It’s filling up with the children of west side families who have been priced out of the west side.

#190 For those about to flop... on 10.12.15 at 3:07 pm

Mark# 173If the decision to shut down the TFSA is made, I have my doubts as to whether there would be a lengthy period of the tax system providing an advantage.

————————————-
Huh? Shut down the TFSA, I don’t see this happening.
The TFSA is in its infancy and is having a few teething problems .
Different governments will impose their will on it but it will survive in my opinion.
In the meantime you can only play by the present rules and if people are constantly raiding them to feed their granite addiction then a lot of after tax money will be feed back into the economy.

#191 Bonnie on 10.12.15 at 3:16 pm

Sold our home and have been to open houses every weekend for the past 5 months. 9 out of 10 people are Asian every time. My chinese realtor said it’s true too so how do you not believe what you see,

#192 Washed Up Lawyer on 10.12.15 at 3:28 pm

I think capitulation is starting to appear in the Calgary and Fort McMurray Real Estate Boards’ numbers.

On a more positive note, with the latest polling numbers showing a gain for the Libs, I find my HDS symptoms on the wane.

#193 Bottoms_Up on 10.12.15 at 3:29 pm

#165 For those about to flop… on 10.12.15 at 11:44 am
————————
Anyone that lumps timmies with SBUX clearly knows nothing about coffee quality. Like lumping kia and acura.

#194 Mark on 10.12.15 at 4:06 pm

“Huh? Shut down the TFSA, I don’t see this happening.”

IIRC, the Liberals phased out the Family Allowance payouts, and revoked certain long-term capital gains exemptions in the 1990s. So if it is their stated policy to reign in the TFSA, I fully expect that they will go forth with such.

As I’ve argued in other posts, the primary outcome (although not the stated intention) of the TFSA has been to create a preference for fixed income investment (as opposed to equity) for the Canadian investing public. Which is largely funnelled into RE mortgage credit by the banks. In an economy where equity investment is desperately needed, particularly for industrial revitalization, a future government looking towards encouraging economic growth definitely would want to look at the TFSA as being quite negative.

Harperites will argue that the TFSA has some benefit to low income families who face income tests for social benefits. Which might be true in theory. But in practice, relatively few actually have been able to take advantage accordingly.

#195 TurnerNation on 10.12.15 at 4:13 pm

Hi SWL1976.

In case of Rapture this trading desk will be manned (and, on holidays ;) )

#196 waiting on the westcoast on 10.12.15 at 4:34 pm

Let me make an observation…

There are many “asians” buying Ferraris, Lambos, and Bentleys in Vancouver. That doesn’t cause the prices of Mazda 3s, Fiat 500s or god-forbid even Kias to rise… its called segmentation…

People that buy $2-3-4M+ homes are not affecting the prices of homes that are under $1M. That is caused by people speculating that the price will continue to go up in that segment.

It will be interesting to see the looks on the faces of the average person who watches their home prices collapse (whether quickly or not) as the markets revert to the mean. I saw the same thing happen in the early 80s and it was not pretty.

#197 Julia on 10.12.15 at 5:36 pm

#184 Daisy Mae
“Do you actually believe a single candidate can/will make a difference?”

I really don’t feel strongly about any of the 3 main parties or leaders this time, wondering if that should be the fallback instead of just voting for the lesser evil.

#198 For those about to flop... on 10.12.15 at 6:12 pm

#192 Bottoms_Up on 10.12.15 at 3:29 pm
#165 For those about to flop… on 10.12.15 at 11:44 am
————————
Anyone that lumps timmies with SBUX clearly knows nothing about coffee quality. Like lumping kia and acura.

———————————–
Huh? Too many peach snapps this holiday ?

#199 For those about to flop... on 10.12.15 at 6:21 pm

Mark ,we both know anything is possible but with Canadians in record debt and the goverment pouring fuel on the house bubble fire as much chance as they can get surely we need some other investment encouragement.
With all three parties aiming to keep this thing going how about allowing the other 30% of non home owners another avenue to get a leg up in life.
Sure this Ponzi scheme needs new money but I think it will be the savers who start the next phase of growth after this thing pops.
One eye on today ,one eye on tomorrow is all I’m saying.

#200 OXI in GREECE !! on 10.13.15 at 10:33 am

I “trust” that anyone voting for the “Stephen Harper Party” – we have no democracy – will see the Canada we used to know transform itself more and more into a Po-Leece state……

Happy Voting !!

#201 OXI in GREECE !! on 10.13.15 at 11:10 am

#196 waiting on the westcoast on 10.12.15 at 4:34 pm
Let me make an observation…

There are many “asians” buying Ferraris, Lambos, and Bentleys in Vancouver. That doesn’t cause the prices of Mazda 3s, Fiat 500s or god-forbid even Kias to rise… its called segmentation…

People that buy $2-3-4M+ homes are not affecting the prices of homes that are under $1M. That is caused by people speculating that the price will continue to go up in that segment.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

This is a very poor comparison….most rich dudes do not buy Lambos. They buy Fords. Its a cultural thing for Asians and Indians who buy beemers and mercedes though. They are always wishing to keep up with the Wongs instead of the Jones's. I have Indian and Chinese friends who tell me this…..

#202 oli on 10.13.15 at 11:39 am

Completely agree with your points about how low interest rates and locals also contribute to the high real estate prices.

BUT! Don’t you think that rich foreigners helped jumpstart the engine and keeps the machine well oiled? There’s no doubt that foreign buyers do exist. Some may only be interested in the huge mansions but many are also snapping up properties in the sub $2M range. This range is exactly in the westside of YVR.

They may not touch East Van yet, but it’s indisputable that there is a trickle down effect. Ie: Locals who initially wanted to buy in the westside can now only afford East Van or Burnaby, which in turn generates more demand and pushes prices higher in those neighbourhoods.

Many families will prefer owning over renting for stability/personal reasons. Even if they realize they are taking on more debt from owning vs renting.

http://unrealwatchdog.com/post/130986728252/does-foreign-investment-really-have-an-impact-on