#firstworld

TOILET1

First world problems. That’s what this pathetic blog is all about, of course.  So why should we start getting serious now? Social justice, world peace and tree health is for wusses. Fortunately – to keep our eyes firmly trained on our navel – we have Charles. He’s beset with FWPs.

“Garth I enjoy your blog, read it regularly and need your serious help. I’m 44, my wife is 42 and hot. Lovey is a stay at home Mom, we have two little girls 8 & 3. We have a dog who is a black hole of emotional need, he’s around 8, also no job.

I have my own company, underpay myself and make about $250-300K/year in US$. I have around 350K in RSPs/TFSAs. We have very little consumer debt – we run a small deficit if we have to.

Now it gets tricky …We own a house that we owe under 400K on. We bought for 469K about 6 years ago. We live in a ‘hood that everyone would like to live in, and the batshit crazy “investments” that have been made around here are nuts. Tear downs sell for at least 500K and up to 650K. New houses sell for 1M or more. If I listed my house today, I’d ask $700K and I’d probably get it. There are 2 new houses behind us – each selling for 1.4M.

We have finished plans to do an addition to our home and I have cold feet.  We owe 400, add 300 we now owe 700K .  If you believe the crazies, I could list my house post reno for 1.4M as it’s a fair comparison to the house listed behind me now. Lovey wants this house done. Yesterday. She sees it as an immediate life experience upgrade, a workable house and she believes it has a lot of equity, and that even though a crash is coming, we are safe.

I have managed to win a round or two, delay the project and if the crash would cooperate and show up on time  I’d be looking like a genius.

Options: I can do nothing and make due with a house that needs some $ spent and has a kitchen just big enough to make a drink in. I can move – I’d have to move to a new part of town, we don’t want to do that and anything I buy here is going to cost 850-900K.

I can rent – I have lobbied for this but for now it’s a no go – there isn’t enough to rent (yet) and we are not quite at condos. I can do the reno and live here for years. Kids are little, school is at the end of the street, high school is right over there and ride it out, taking comfort in my desirable neighborhood and proximity to downtown etc.

Am I over-thinking this?”

Is the Pope cuddly? Is Joe Oliver actually a Styrofoam cut-out? Does Tom Mulcair love mortgages? Of course you’re overthinking this, and missing the most obvious option: borrow three hundred grand, do the reno, list for $1.4 million, sell, net $700,000. Then move Lovey, the screamers and the emotional-black-hole into a new $900,000 house across town with a mortgage 50% less than the one you now have. Better house, half the debt. More equity to borrow against for your business, creating a tax-deductible mortgage while removing the proceeds tax-free if you have a big outstanding shareholder’s loan. (Most owners do.) And happy wife.

Fundamental to this, Charlie, is the fact you stand to make a big capital-gains tax-free profit from the stupidity bubbling around you. Rapid, mindless and unsustainable price appreciation is a gift, even to a downtrodden, problem-plagued 1%er like you. You can benefit from it – by harvesting the windfall and using it to trash debt and liberate equity – or you can double down and play the same game as the delusional neighbours.

Fundamental to this is the fact that in your forties with four dependents, no pension, making serious money, you’re behind the curve. Three hundred thousand in liquid assets is not stellar when you have a mortgage larger than that and only $70,000 in real estate equity. By doing the project and moving you’ll end up with ten times the equity, which can then be removed to add to your liquid net worth. Given your income, tax-deductible interest expense will be halved, meaning you can borrow at 1.5%. Invest in a balanced and diversified portfolio for retirement inside your TFSAs and a non-reg account averaging 6% or 7% over the long-term, and Lovey will think you’re a genius.

So why isn’t everyone doing similar – cashing in on property the gains that dumb interest rates and dumbass politicians have wrought? Two words. Recency bias. It turns normal people into gamblers or losers.

Recency bias means thinking what has happened recently is more important than history, and determines what will transpire next. So, when stock markets go down (like in 2008, or last week), people assume they’ll continue to fall until they hit zero and the dead rise out of the ground to pursue us. Similarly, when houses go up, your mom tells you they’ll go up forever so you’d better buy now or buy never. Recency bias, in other words, is why people always buy high and sell low.

Logic dictates that when equities or preferred shares are cheap (like now) you should buy some. Logic says when the market adds a fat premium to your house, tax-free, you should grab it. However, most people do the opposite, selling decliners and buying advancers believing current events are now permanent. So when the trend lines inevitably change and markets revert to the mean, poof.

Of course, you can always write to some guy on the Internet and seek advice, thinking any of this really matters more than climate change or ISIS. But that would be lame.

 

165 comments ↓

#1 Victoria Real Estate Update on 09.30.15 at 5:09 pm

Below is what happened to SFH prices across Greater Victoria from 2010 to 2013/14 (surprisingly while 5-year mortgage rates were falling).

Greater Victoria: – 9.1%
Victoria: – 11.0%
Vic West: – 10.6%
Oak Bay: – 10.6%
Esquimalt: – 12.3%
View Royal: – 6.9%
Saanich East: – 9.7%
Saanich West: – 10.9%
Sooke: – 14.1%
Langford: – 12.8%
Metchosin: – 18.6%
Colwood: – 13.9%
Highlands: – 17.5%
North Saanich: – 14.5%
Sidney: – 11.4%
Central Saanich: – 14.2%

(source: index – Victoria’s R/E board):

Prices in some areas fell almost 20% and this is by admission of the local real estate board.

Not surprising is that the yearly average price of SFHs across Greater Victoria fell less than 5% over the same period of time (source: Victoria’s R/E board).

It is misleading and unfair to use the yearly average to assess how much prices fall over time. It is simply not an accurate gauge of the price performance of a housing market.

#2 TurnerNation on 09.30.15 at 5:10 pm

Nervous nellies the bull is back. It’s an election year.

#3 Victoria Real Estate Update on 09.30.15 at 5:13 pm

Housing markets in Victoria, Vancouver, Edmonton and Calgary crashed in the 80s.

CMHC was bailed out in the 80s as a result of house prices falling fast and deep in certain areas of Canada (the above cities, for example).

Within a 4 to 5 year period of time the yearly average price of houses fell somewhere around 25% to 30% in these cities. From my previous post we know that if indexed data was available from that time, it would show much deeper price declines. Indexed price data would show that house values crashed, perhaps, 40% to 60% in these cities over 4 to 5 years.

Canadian cities have a history of fast and deep price crashes.

Realtors post comments on this site claiming that it’s different in Canada and that price crashes don’t happen here. Of course they provide no proof to back their claims. Realtors want you to think that any price correction in Canada will be slow and safe. They say this to make you feel safe about buying a house right now. They don’t get paid unless people buy houses.

#4 Edward on 09.30.15 at 5:13 pm

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/09/28/trudeau-wont-do-his-math

#5 Jimmy on 09.30.15 at 5:13 pm

Furrrrrst!

#6 cto on 09.30.15 at 5:14 pm

Wow! Garth!
Did read you right?! You told him to invest 300 in the house and sell, then buy another cheaper one.
Should my wife and I do that? Were in the combined 160 range

#7 waiting on the westcoast on 09.30.15 at 5:16 pm

Assuming his 300k in renos will double the value… but if its possible, that is an awesome option.

I had a guy who bought a house a couple of blocks down for 700k and did about 100k in renos (did almost all the work himself part-time over a year) and sold for just shy of $1M. So – he probably made himself 100k total at best on the deal. Not bad for a construction guy to make on the side for a year…. beats bingo.

What about keep the place… do a more modest upgrade and keep the debt lower (maybe only a 100k addtional) and wait and see what happens. Spouse stays happy and risk stays low. Is your business recession proof?

#8 M_S on 09.30.15 at 5:24 pm

“Of course you’re overthinking this, and missing the most obvious option: borrow three hundred grand, do the reno, list for $1.4 million, sell, net $700,000.”

If he can’t sell for $1.4 million after the renovation (presumably takes a few months) what then?

It was Lovey’s fault. — Garth

#9 Glen on 09.30.15 at 5:25 pm

Seriously…what 44 year old refers to his wife as “hot” and calls her “Lovey”

Even I…a misguided dipper can see that this guy should have more liquid assets than he currently has given his salary.

#10 waiting on the westcoast on 09.30.15 at 5:26 pm

#1 Victoria Real Estate Update on 09.30.15 at 5:09 pm

Re: real estate in Victoria

I think there has been lift in the regular housing market since 2013/14 but still fairly flat. The market does seem to be pretty steady at present.

That said, I have been looking at larger acreages in Saanich / Metchosin and noticed that they are sitting on the market for at least a year and periodically dropping in price. Many are down around 10% in their asking price and have not moved. I am still waiting for something that hits the market a little stronger to knock the prices down.

I have been looking at Uruguay. My wife and I are going to check it out this fall. You can buy 20 acres about 15-30 minutes from Montevideo for 100k. Build a house for another 150k but pay a lot for travel while checking on your businesses up here… ;-)

Still – much better than spending between 1-2M in Greater Vancouver or Victoria areas with longer commutes from the metro (but shorter than the transcontinental flights). ;-)

#11 Jamie on 09.30.15 at 5:27 pm

What little we know about the Harper government’s many international trade deals is cause for grave concern.

Selling Canada out, one deal at a time

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/commentary/2015/09/30/selling-canada-out-one-deal-at-a-time.html

#12 Editrix on 09.30.15 at 5:29 pm

Um, Garth, isn’t your advice to Charles poor if the market dips before he can get his house on the market? Not so great to borrow $300K if he might not get a decent profit and as you say, house prices may go down, but debt doesn’t.

The market would have to dip substantially and it sounds like he has a wife issue, anyway. We all live in the real world. — Garth

#13 Victoria Real Estate Update on 09.30.15 at 5:32 pm

Toronto’s housing market crashed in the 90s.

CMHC was bailed out again in the 90s as a result of house prices falling fast and deep in certain areas of Canada (Toronto, for example).

A Toronto realtor told me that house prices were falling at a rate of $10 K per week during that time and that many sellers were too slow in dropping their prices to get a deal done.

As well, I know someone who sold his house in a nice area of Toronto for half of what he paid two years earlier because the market was crashing.

Toronto’s housing market crash in the 90s in another example that proves that it isn’t different in Canada.

The above examples of crashing markets happened at a time when there was no national housing bubble in Canada like we have now.

Canada’s housing bubble is, perhaps, the biggest the world has seen.

Recently, national housing bubbles deflated in the US, Ireland, Spain, Greece, Iceland, Japan,…. Prices crashed fast and deep in these countries much like prices crashed in Victoria, Vancouver, Edmonton and Calgary in the 80s and Toronto in the 90s resulting in two bailouts of CMHC.

It wasn’t different in the above Canadian cities in the past and it won’t be different this time in Canada either, no matter how hard realtors on this site try to convince you that it will be.

#14 M_S on 09.30.15 at 5:39 pm

“By doing the project and moving you’ll end up with ten times the equity”

Garth,

Just to clarify a local realtor suggested a very similar plan:

– buy an old house for 700K
– borrow 300K and do a renovation
– sell for 1.4M

400K gain

(optional – repeat several times, until the desired amount of money is accumulated)

Is it a good plan? Should I do it?

#15 Disgust will make me vote on 09.30.15 at 5:40 pm

Oh yes, another episode of the sniveling rich. God how I wish they would shut the f*** up already. Is it too much to ask for if we can get more practical advice for regular dudes, instead of how some guy can make his lottery winnings last? Holy crap.

Anyway, I want to comment on the interesting parts of the post.

Is the Pope cuddly?
https://youtu.be/l2tibsvUMu4

Is Joe Oliver actually a Styrofoam cut-out?
Pretty damn sure he is.

Does Tom Mulcair love mortgages?
Does a mulbear s*** in the woods? Errr, I mean yes. Yes, of course.

And finally, the most important question of all.

In a couple of weeks, should we give another majority mandate to the person who will take care of our country’s most serious problems, giving income splitting and free money for people like Charles?

After all there’s nothing better than a single mom who works at McD!cks and can’t income split with anyone, using her tax and EI deductions to help lighten the load on Mr. Business Owner’s taxes, and giving him some free money on top of that so his wife can stay at home and watch HGTV all day. If she gets horny enough, some of that sweet dosh might “trickle down” to a few construction jobs for a few weeks while the ol’ abode levels up to the kind of place fit for a socialite. That’s what we call welfare queens that get their money from the husband instead of the government, right? I’m pretty sure socialite is the polite term. Garth, correct me if I’m wrong. I’m not usually in with this crowd.

What? You’re saying that might not be the best use of public money? You’re saying maybe there’s more needy citizens the government could help? What are you, some kind of communist? Don’t make me invoke C51 and sic the RCMP on you, like Health Canada said they would on city authorities in Vancouver, because some old lady in Alberta heard someone somewhere is smoking weed and she is NOT OKAY WITH THAT. Oops, getting a bit offtopic.

Back to what are definitely not handouts. Nope. Definitely not. Hey, look, an unemployed over there trying to claim welfare so he doesn’t sleep in the streets! Boo! Get him, boys!

So, do we vote for income splitting so Business Guy’s tax burden is even less, and do we vote for free government money for his wife staying at home instead of tackling the unaffordability of daycare? After all, we wouldn’t want the two offspring to grow up in some kind of $15/day government daycare, yuck, you know poor people would send their kids there, right?

P.S. At least we finally found *someone* who benefits from a low Canadian dollar. I thought this mythical person didn’t exist. This blog teaches me something erryday.

#16 Londoner on 09.30.15 at 5:44 pm

#229 Mf on 09.30.15 at 12:18 pm

Did Anyone predict oil’s collapse?
____________________________________________

Yeah, a lot of people did. Not the least of who was Bob Hoye from Institutional Investors, who in early 2014 said:

“Somewhere in the next couple of months the price advance in crude will probably have maxed out for this business cycle. It’s easy to say that crude oil could fall to 25 per cent of its recent high. It will change things enormously.”

Maclean’s even did an article on it:
http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/why-the-price-of-oil-may-be-about-to-tank/

I didn’t realize that you were such an amateur investor until you said something about this being your first stock market correction(?). I know it must seem like you’ve got things all figured out but it appears like you’re just towing the line for this blog rather then doing some critical thinking.

#17 Mark on 09.30.15 at 5:45 pm

I have my own company, underpay myself and make about $250-300K/year in US$. I have around 350K in RSPs/TFSAs. We have very little consumer debt – we run a small deficit if we have to.

Now it gets tricky …We own a house that we owe under 400K on. We bought for 469K about 6 years ago.

I hope this isn’t politically incorrect to ask, but how does someone “make” $300k/year, and only manage to have $69k in paid-in equity in their house after 6 years? Probably starting with a 5% down-payment?

Doesn’t seem to add up to me. Also, the RRSP/TFSA amounts are trivial — if you figure $50k for the TFSA, and the balance in the RRSP @ at 50% discount, this “$300k/year” earner has only managed to save over $200k after-tax in the 6 years.

Sounds like not only investment advice, but some overall spending advice is needed here. Unless there’s huge equity being accumulated in the business — which may very well be something that can be restructured so as to qualify the house mortgage interest for tax deductibility.

#18 conan on 09.30.15 at 5:50 pm

If a 300k reno will add 700k to your house value then sell that concept to the person who will buy the house as is and build to preference.

Every country has had a downturn in RE except for Canada.

Logic says we are due.

I think it begins this spring in earnest.

Sell Sell Sell.

#19 Mark on 09.30.15 at 5:53 pm

“It is misleading and unfair to use the yearly average to assess how much prices fall over time. It is simply not an accurate gauge of the price performance of a housing market.”

Of course, a point I’ve been hammering at for years. The ‘sales mix’ is subject to change over time, and in places where there is a substantial addition of new RE, there is naturally a skew to the sales mix on account of minimally depreciated RE coming to market relative to the transactions that occur in ‘old stock’ RE.

Prices have spent the past 2-2.5 years falling on account of shifts to this sales mix. The average Canadian homeowner is getting poorer, and is adjusting their consumer demand accordingly. Discount stores like Dollarama are doing banner business on account of such, while higher-end middle class retailing is going the way of the dodo-bird. The economy is obviously in a state of deflation, as even a 30% drop in the currency relative to our largest trading partner couldn’t even budge CPI into the Bank of Canada’s target range.

The next shoe to drop is clearly the headline RE prices. Evidence is mounting that there is panic emerging in some of the major centers. The RE sell side propaganda machine is in full strength mode, trying to push a fundamentally false narrative on the very few Canadians still in a financial position to actually purchase residential RE. The concept of a RE crash is now such a fear of politicians that it is a sort of ‘third rail’ that they fear touching in the political campaigns. Even though the governing politicians clearly hold much of the blame for causing it through CMHC subprime mortgage guarantee policies.

#20 Frank on 09.30.15 at 5:55 pm

Oh, do me.

Couple making $110K and $85K, renting. $120K RRSPs, $80K TFSA, $60K other savings.

Should we buy a $900K house too!

#21 M_S on 09.30.15 at 5:59 pm

“It was Lovey’s fault. — Garth”

I would be careful here. If Charles starts to point out Loveys’ faults he might find himself without a house and without a wife …

#22 MSM-Free Zone on 09.30.15 at 5:59 pm

TIP:
It is a well-known fact that certain Plenty-of-Fish women (you know, the ones that are logged-in 24/7 and refuse to purchase a subscription) steadfastly refuse to date male renters.

SOLUTION:
Inform your misinformed lady that you actually ‘own’ your vertically stacked rabbit cage, a.k.a. condo., you purchased it as an ‘investment’, since real estate goes up in value forever (block any websites on your open laptop that access new archives while you’re taking a shower), and she’ll be putty in your arms forever, or, at least for the weekend.

(DISCLAIMER: No need to explain to your little-miss-poisson where all your extra spending cash is coming from.)

#23 Freedom First on 09.30.15 at 6:01 pm

Reminds me of a Billy Idol song. And with a rebel yell she cried more more more.

Yes. First world problems. Our society is very sick. Debt ridden. Whacked out. Selfish. Self centered. Entitled. Ungrateful. Expectation governed. I want I want I want. Enough is never enough. Pu$$y whipped. Trust me.

#24 M_S on 09.30.15 at 6:06 pm

“The market would have to dip substantially and it sounds like he has a wife issue, anyway. We all live in the real world. — Garth”

What if this is not a “substantial dip” problem but rather a liquidity problem, as in the house sitting on market for months without many willing buyers for his 1.4$ asking price?

His wife issue will prevent him from selling the house anyway. Reno yes, but never a sell. Not while house prices are going up

#25 Godth on 09.30.15 at 6:07 pm

#248 Ralph Cramdown on 09.30.15 at 2:46 pm
“They’re cancer rats. If you let the study run a couple of years, they all get cancer, no matter what you feed them. If you don’t control their food and water intake, they all get cancer even sooner, no matter what you feed them. Guaranteed great pictures, if that’s what you’re looking for.”

Evidence? Peer reviewed studies? Why are these rats used as a norm in scientific studies then? All of a sudden you’re a rat expert, sounds plausible.

#26 Smoking Man on 09.30.15 at 6:10 pm

Life is stranger than fiction..

True Story, how can I expect anyone to beilive it after years of claiming the title of the world’s best bull shit artist.

So I’m explaining last week to usa customs, my gig involves looking at shit New Delhi developers did, then advise my clients on how to fix it..

I’m the best VBA Developer in the world, I said I should teach it. I can’t keep up with the demand.

They checked some data base, and said, you are.

Customs guy says, you can teach but they need to be upper folks whatever that ment.

So as a joke and feeling a bit mischievous I fire off a letter to a top University in the USA. And I mean top.

Waiting patently for the well crafted rejection letter.

Told them my story, say it’s not taught in any University at a pro level, they scratch the surface. But every business is dying for MBA students with solid VBA.

I propose a course, I tell em, I’m a high school drop out, who can’t spell due to Dyslexia, but been working with this shit every day, for at leased 10 hours a day for the last 20 years.

I don’t know what date base these customs guys or school are tapping into but wow.

I’m not lieing, they want to talk to me, proposed an hounery degree of sorts. And are desperate to find some one like me, that knows fixed income, and every object in the Vba library.

Would that not be a total slap to the face to every idiot that memorized, regurgitated on demand and obeyed and payed for it.

Trapped in a one year contract right now.

Dr Smoking Man with a real accredited certificate.

Fk. I must be hi…

There are rules, and there are exceptions.

#27 Danger Dan on 09.30.15 at 6:11 pm

I love the communiqués from the damned. I guess if you’re married to someone who has bought into the delusions of grandeur pervasive in Canadian middle class society, it would be smart to have a large emergency fund for soaking up the damage done by the significant otter’s bright ideas.

#28 Godth on 09.30.15 at 6:22 pm

#248 Ralph Cramdown on 09.30.15 at 2:46 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORbseYAkzRM

|It’s a long way back down to the ground.

Enjoy your margarine.

#29 MSM-Free Zone on 09.30.15 at 6:25 pm

#17 Mark on 09.30.15 at 5:45 pm
“…..but how does someone “make” $300k/year, and only manage to have $69k in paid-in equity in their house after 6 years?……”
_________________________

I think you know the answer is buried in the story:

“….Lovey wants this house done. Yesterday. She sees it as an immediate life experience upgrade……”

There is usually a price to pay in keeping a ‘hot 42-year old wife’. Just take a stroll down a Port Credit or downtown Oakville sidewalk any summer weekend afternoon. Lots of trophy wives strutting around in $400 pre-ripped jeans.

#30 Bottoms_Up on 09.30.15 at 6:30 pm

Not sure how a shrewd business man goes from a 469k house (assuming some type of downpayment next) to only 400k owing 6 years later. Unless they are following a strategy to not pay off the mortgage because rates are so low?

#31 SWL1976 on 09.30.15 at 6:30 pm

#16 Londoner on 09.30.15 at 5:44 pm

I know it must seem like you’ve got things all figured out but it appears like you’re just towing the line for this blog rather then doing some critical thinking.

I don’t think that critical thinking is MF’s strong suit. Now that being said I was going to nominate him for the cheerleader and the official, unofficial ambassador to the willfully ignorant, and the brainwashed masses.

I know he does not speak for his entire generation, nor should any single person speak for any generation, but I do hope that he is not the consensus for the entire millennial cohort.

We all have much to learn and soon we will all have to face the music to all these ‘crazy conspiracy theories’ many have spoke and warned about. Much like the ‘unforeseen’ collapse of oil

Furthermore, all this talk of monsanto without mention of their aluminum resistant seeds (patent pending)

I know it’s a tuff pill to swallow, but once one does, you will free yourself from the hopeless illusion many, many people are trapped in.

Freedom from the lie is refreshing

I highly recommend it

Simple observation of the world around us is all the evidence we really need. Unless of course, you find the illusion much more comforting?

#32 B Riding Dirty on 09.30.15 at 6:34 pm

So a renovation of 300k would take 9-12 months.

Then sell would push you into this time next year.

Garth says to do it, meaning house prices to raise or stay where they are for the next 12-16 months.

+ Real estate up 20% year to date in YVR and T dot.

– Diversified funds down 10%.

Anyone who sold there home and invested with a adviser last year lost 25-30% of there net worth.

Fact. No who can we blame? Our self for being on the wrong side of the swings. “Good advise should make you money, not cost it” Johnny C.

Worst of all they are paying rent to a man/woman/holding company that gained 20% return on your rent vs mortgage paying back.

#33 Bottoms_Up on 09.30.15 at 6:36 pm

#25 Godth on 09.30.15 at 6:07 pm
————————
Just google:

Comparison of NTP Historical Control Tumor Incidence Rates in Female Harlan Sprague Dawley and Fischer 344/N Rats

#34 omg the original on 09.30.15 at 6:37 pm

Editrix on 09.30.15 at 5:29 pm
Um, Garth, isn’t your advice to Charles poor if the market dips before he can get his house on the market? Not so great to borrow $300K if he might not get a decent profit and as you say, house prices may go down
——————————

In the world of Canadian housing prices never go down quickly, there is simply too much fat on the system.

Look at Calgary for example – the layoffs of very well paid professionals in that city is astounding, proportionally way more than would ever occur in TO or Vancouver due to a recession. But houses prices in Calgary have hardly dropped at all, especially considering average CowTown prices have double since 2005.

So as long as Charles gets the reno done in the next year he’s golden.

#35 Smoking Man on 09.30.15 at 6:39 pm

My entire goal with my letter to school was to get a negative response with words I would need to google.

This world is amazing, I just showed the wife the email from the school, thinking she would say that’s amazing.

She’s hammered playing penny slots, I need more money she says…

God love her….

#36 Londoner on 09.30.15 at 6:42 pm

Some good advice in today’s post. Rates will be low for a very long time and house prices are not about to crash. Take advantage of the situation and make some cash.

#37 Mf on 09.30.15 at 6:43 pm

#16 Londoner on 09.30.15 at 5:44 pm

Rookie investor yes but not stupid. Did lots of research, read a few books, and basically studied the market for a few years. No experience like actually jumping in and experiencing it all first hand though. Surely someone who has “figured it all out” and was born financially astute such as yourself can agree on that.

It wasn’t easy. I had zero financial background because I was always a science and politics guy. No one I knew knew anything about finance either, and everyone believed and still believes real estate is the only investment there is. Especially here in the the Gta. I Almost bought a condo in 2013 but I realized something was off with the prices. Just didn’t seem right that a 600 sq ft condo should be near 300k. The blog was one reason I decided to teach myself about investments beyond real estate. Garth’s advice is at the end of the day to be financially aware and balanced. I agree with that mentality. Not going 270k in debt to buy a 600 sq ft condo and embarking on a 2 year journey of learning while facing your fears is critical thinking to me.

Mf

#38 omg the original on 09.30.15 at 6:43 pm

Lovey is a stay at home Mom, we have two little girls 8 & 3. We have a dog who is a black hole of emotional need, he’s around 8, also no job.
——————–

“also no job”……..”ALSO NO JOB”

Hopefully his hot wifey does not read this blog as that statement implies that BOTH SHE and the dog have no job.

Nothing gets a stay at home mom more p*ssed off then being told they have NO JOB.

She actually has the most important job in the house – raising two kids to be productive, tax paying members of society, who will help fund my healthcare.

#39 LH on 09.30.15 at 6:48 pm

Wow even Garth concedes, “Happy Wife, Happy Life”

market would have to dip substantially and it sounds like he has a wife issue, anyway. We all live in the real world. — Garth

#40 omg the original on 09.30.15 at 6:52 pm

Victoria Real Estate Update

Not surprising is that the yearly average price of SFHs across Greater Victoria fell less than 5% over the same period of time (source: Victoria’s R/E board).

It is misleading and unfair to use the yearly average to assess how much prices fall over time. It is simply not an accurate gauge of the price performance of a housing market.
—————–

Real estate boards are expert at alway getting positive headlines.

Every month our local MSM newspaper dutifully regurgitates the press release of the VREB.

There is always sunshine someplace in Victoria to report….

– always higher sales in some area,
– higher year/year price,
– higher YTD price,
– or if all else fail a forecast for a stronger housing market.

Strangely over the past 8 years I can never recall there being a headline about prices falling in Victoria.

Gotta’ give them credit – the RE hacks are pretty good at using the media.

#41 LH on 09.30.15 at 6:54 pm

I would add how Charles has been a crazy UAW in Danko’s terminology but such a riff is too easy. Somebody with his emolument should have more than 5 million in net worth by now, were his lucre to have been saved and invested.

#42 Mf on 09.30.15 at 6:57 pm

#16 Londoner on 09.30.15 at 5:44 pm

To counter your comment that lots of people predicted oil’s collapse. I say hogwash. You’ve got our entire oil industry on edge because the price of oil is below where they predicted it would be considering all metrics like demand, supply, regional conflict etc. If there were lots who predicted the current oil glut then the industry wouldn’t be hurting like it is.

Truth is People may have thought oil prices would go down, but I am willing to bet not as much as they did and for as long as they did.

SM made it seem like he could read the minds of others and make money of that. Almost like he could predict the future. My point was obviously no one can predict the future, and that we can only surmise on the plans of others. Using the conspiracy theory card like many do here is a simplistic way of trying to find order in a completely disorderly universe. Professing that you know better like he did is laughable.

Mf

#43 Mike in Toronto on 09.30.15 at 7:03 pm

“Logic dictates that when equities or preferred shares are cheap (like now) you should buy some.”

It’s why I loaded up on Nortel at $60!

#44 Millmech on 09.30.15 at 7:08 pm

#22
You meant Plenty of Syph right,lol!

#45 Greed is God on 09.30.15 at 7:12 pm

VBA? LOL

#46 Smoking Man on 09.30.15 at 7:15 pm

#33 Greed is God on 09.30.15 at 7:12 pm
VBA? LOL

Exactly, not respected, but critical to every trade floor.

#47 common sense on 09.30.15 at 7:22 pm

“equities are cheap” ? Compared to housing?

Sincerely please explain Mr. Turner.

Thank you.

#48 Smoking Man on 09.30.15 at 7:24 pm

42 Mf on 09.30.15 at 6:57 pm
#16 Londoner on 09.30.15 at 5:44 pm

To counter your comment that lots of people predicted oil’s collapse. I say hogwash. You’ve got our entire oil industry on edge because the price of oil is below where they predicted it would be considering all metrics like demand, supply, regional conflict etc. If there were lots who predicted the current oil glut then the industry wouldn’t be hurting like it is.

Truth is People may have thought oil prices would go down, but I am willing to bet not as much as they did and for as long as they did.

SM made it seem like he could read the minds of others and make money of that. Almost like he could predict the future. My point was obviously no one can predict the future, and that we can only surmise on the plans of others. Using the conspiracy theory card like many do here is a simplistic way of trying to find order in a completely disorderly universe. Professing that you know better like he did is laughable.

Mf
…..

Dude I know you won’t belive I’m from Nectonite, a plant billion light years away.

Sent to keep you pricks from enlightening, wrong word, let’s go with an easier one, killing each other.

I’m the real deal…

Yes, an immigrant struggling with English.

I come from the land of the ice and snow.

We are your over lords.

https://youtu.be/kEGuHdKn0Lc

Don’t let the talking dick distraction in chapter 1 of my book fool you.

We are real and here…

#49 crossbordershopper on 09.30.15 at 7:36 pm

millions of canadians live pay cheque to pay cheque, struggle to pay the bills and make sure their children have a meal at the end of the day, many do not.
This lady wants a million dollar home, is their current home not big enough for her ego. i hope her two children grow up grounded, come to barton street in hamilton and i will show them what living poor is all about.
they can stay with us, im sorry they are going to share a bed and wednesday morning the food bank has cheese and it opens at 8 am.at Barton and Gage.

#50 Godth on 09.30.15 at 7:46 pm

#33 Bottoms_Up on 09.30.15 at 6:36 pm

Just google:

“Nobody knows what they’re talking about; Too many variables”
or
“billions of years of evolution and subtle interactions won’t be made better by human arrogance”
or
“I am a blockhead and simple linear narratives and mechanistic thinking are idiotic”

Learn the way of the Coywolf young grasshopper.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTYhMZpxQTA

#51 lee on 09.30.15 at 7:56 pm

#3, nobody in Canada makes money if houses aren’t selling.

#52 LJ on 09.30.15 at 7:56 pm

Here’s an improvement story: Dateline Calgary.

Neighbour bought a house up the street in ’06, at the prior peak, for over $500,000. Then he proceeded to put $300,000 of renovations into the house and it went back on the market in ’09 – with no takers, surprise. He listed at $950 and lowered to a bare-knuckled $875 with no results.

Listed again in ’12 after doing landscape and decorative improvements – ~$50,000. No takers and the first offers came in around $600,000 (he was mad!).

Listed again last year and one offer came in, at the most recent peak (to the month), at $700,000. He had to turn it down, since he had re-mortgaged the original property for far more than that – and the banks let him…

He is currently back on the “improvement train” adding a second unit to the property by building a new garage with a rental unit on top: Cost unknown and rental vacancies rising. He thinks that this will improve the property enough so that he can get out with a profit in the next year or two. He’s hoping to list for around $1.1 million, which he says will give him a “decent profit” (if he doesn’t count all of the interest that he has paid over the last ~10 years).

He is unemployed and does all of the renovations and building himself (material costs are still present – as listed), he has been churning the “equity” in his house to stay afloat until the “big payday.”

I figure he goes bust. The Calgary market is toast (and sinking) but there are a lot of these guys out there throwing money like this into “improvements” that they hope will get them out of the Huge Hole that they dug for themselves!

Someone forgot to tell them that the “property ladder” was stolen by an unemployed rig worker and it’s a long waaaaay down.

#53 IHCTD9 on 09.30.15 at 7:57 pm

#15 Disgust will make me vote on 09.30.15 at 5:40 pm

Oh yes, another episode of the sniveling rich. God how I wish they would shut the f*** up already. Is it too much to ask for if we can get more practical advice for regular dudes, instead of how some guy can make his lottery winnings last? Holy crap.
——————–
Hey guy, I was wondering if you could help me out with something. The other day my Gallardo gave me trouble again. Ever since I had AMS twin turbo it the rear rubber just disappears off the rims – like gone- after 4-5 hours of driving time. I have no idea what is going on!? I’ve been taking my hot stay at home wife’s Vanquish into work all week, and I’m starting to feel… Well, a little beta, if you know what I mean.

Should I keep taking my hot wife’s Aston Martin into work, or would it better to just take my old Bentley Continental GT instead?

#54 Mark on 09.30.15 at 7:58 pm

““equities are cheap” ? Compared to housing?”

Yup. The TSX index has a P/E of around 15, with most of the cyclicals in the toilet. Canadian housing has a P/E on average of around 35. In the big cities like Vancouver/Toronto, the P/E is right off the charts.

Normally for an asset class that grows its rents over the long term at the rate of inflation, a multiple of only 8-10X earnings is justifiable. If you go through the math, you can see that this roughly equates to the rule of thumb that its a bad idea to pay more than 100X monthly rent for real estate.

Therefore, it logically follows that housing is extremely expensive relative to stocks. And that housing is likely to underperform relative to stocks.

If the 1990s are any model, a mere housing downpayment invested in a TSX stock market index fund (ie: the TIPS at the time) would have, by the end of the decade, on account of housing depreciation and stock appreciation/dividends, been enough to completely pay for the house in cash. Those who were lucky enough to invest in the tech sector at the time did dramatically better (but mostly were destroyed during the next decade as Canada’s tech sector collapsed!).

#55 ANON on 09.30.15 at 8:06 pm

#firstworld: Underpaid single provider with 50k+ in debt and running unknown deficits, overthinking if the family should dig the hole a little deeper, instead of ruminating over climbing out while they still can. :)

#56 Sebee on 09.30.15 at 8:17 pm

Fake.

This guy earns too much to have so little invested. And honestly, how could he not have had what you suggested? That should have been his option A, B at most.

Interesting how the point of an article can be entirely missed. People would rather just dis other people. — Garth

#57 Tony on 09.30.15 at 8:23 pm

Re: So why isn’t everyone doing similar – cashing in on property the gains that dumb interest rates and dumbass politicians have wrought?

The reason why the average person always and will always die broke. The clueless masses always end up doing the wrong thing. That’s why the average person dies broke. It’s that simple but ad infinitum the process will repeat generation after generation.

#58 Ralph Cramdown on 09.30.15 at 8:24 pm

“They’re cancer rats.”

#25 Godth — “Evidence? Peer reviewed studies?”

Dude, they’re DESIGNED to get cancer more quickly, to test stuff like this.

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=rats+susceptible+cancer

#59 Bytor the Snow Dog on 09.30.15 at 8:26 pm

Cuddly Pope, Styro Joe, and Multi Mortgage Tom are all great ones Garth.

Just one thing I must question (or maybe several).

Why does the Internet make:

1) Every man’s wife hot?
2) Everyone’s IQ over 140?
3) Every guy a tuff 6 foot 4 235 lb. Mofo?

Things that make ya go hmmm…

#60 Smoking Man on 09.30.15 at 8:28 pm

God lives in Canada,
No on sees it ,this is his words

Dance Me To The End Of Love”

Dance me to your beauty with a burning violin
Dance me through the panic ’til I’m gathered safely in
Lift me like an olive branch and be my homeward dove
Dance me to the end of love
Dance me to the end of love
Oh let me see your beauty when the witnesses are gone
Let me feel you moving like they do in Babylon
Show me slowly what I only know the limits of
Dance me to the end of love
Dance me to the end of love

Dance me to the wedding now, dance me on and on
Dance me very tenderly and dance me very long
We’re both of us beneath our love, we’re both of us above
Dance me to the end of love
Dance me to the end of love

Dance me to the children who are asking to be born
Dance me through the curtains that our kisses have outworn
Raise a tent of shelter now, though every thread is torn
Dance me to the end of love

Dance me to your beauty with a burning violin
Dance me through the panic till I’m gathered safely in
Touch me with your naked hand or touch me with your glove
Dance me to the end of love
Dance me to the end of love
Dance me to the end of love

#61 Tony on 09.30.15 at 8:30 pm

Re: #54 Mark on 09.30.15 at 7:58 pm

Flawed logic, the TSX generally will mirror the American stock indexes unless a huge move in oil or gold is the exception rather than the rule. The U.S. indexes are still more overvalued than any other point in time except earlier on this year. Changes in reported accounting and total manipulation have brainwashed plenty a person. When the U.S. indexes go down for the 10 bells the TSX will go down with it.

#62 Sebee on 09.30.15 at 8:32 pm

Interesting how the point of an article can be entirely missed. People would rather just dis other people. — Garth

Not at all Garth. Simply, how could a guy try to make a case that he’s given this plenty of thought, yet not come across that obvious and top option? I find it hard to buy. Being totally liquid and a renter I share your view that people are totally bonkers over RE. But I see the Cons 72.5% goal as one they will achive because they control policy. You sure made a good case to re-elect them. And you will soon find out there is a higher % of greater fools than your forecasts predicted, unfortunately.

#63 Rexx Rock on 09.30.15 at 8:35 pm

Freedom 55 is alive and well in Vancouver and Toronto thanks to owning a simple investment as a house.The trend is your friend until it ends.Therefore real estate is still a good investment as long as you get a great deal.Boomers are laughing all the way to the bank!!!
The young are screwed big time unless they get a good education and move to the USA.Canada is finished because the cost of living is off the charts to own a home and raise a family.

#64 the Jaguar on 09.30.15 at 8:40 pm

What if Charles & Lovey live in Calgary? The description of ‘Hood” sounds like inner city infill material, and there are lots of listings for those, but buyers have cold feet.

#65 gladiator on 09.30.15 at 8:42 pm

@SmokingMan

Funny! I am a VBA pro of sorts. One of my records is reducing 2.5 days of a person’s manual work to under 4 minutes of machine work. I had the opportunity to hone my skills under a very good professional who was my manager for 5 years.
Also, my best professor ever teaches at an American university and I had the idea to suggest a curriculum geared to students of Finance who also want to learn VBA. It never materialized because of my laziness…
As a finance professional, learning VBA was THE best investment in my skills that help me with my main profession.
If only people realized how important it is to know programming… That’s why my 9 year-old daughter is going to a robotics class and will be learning to program in C.

#66 Smoking Man on 09.30.15 at 8:49 pm

To my wife.

I love you….

……..

When I’m all through if I haven’t been what they think I should be
If the total isn’t high enough when they figure me
When I grow old if there’s no gray from worry in my hair
What do I care? What do I care?

What do I care just as long as you were mine a little while?
When the road was long and weary you gave me a few good mile
What do I care if I miss a goal because I make a slip?
I’ll still be satisfied because I tasted your sweet lips

What do I care if I never have much money?
And sometimes my table looks a little bare
Anything that I may miss is made up for each time we kiss
You love me and I love you, so what do I care?

What do I care just as long as you were mine a little while?
When the road was long and weary you gave me a few good mile
What do I care if I miss a goal because I make a slip?
I’ll still be satisfied because I tasted your sweet lips

What do I care if I never have much money?
And sometimes my table looks a little bare
Anything that I may miss is made up for each time we kiss
You love me and I love you, so what do I care?

#67 Intuitive Missus on 09.30.15 at 8:50 pm

#60 Smoking Man.

You romantic devil; who knew.

#68 Steve French on 09.30.15 at 8:56 pm

Smoking Man:

As Dudeist Priests lets set aside our global climate change debate.

What’s the UCC telling you on Putin-Syria…

SteveO

#69 Mike T. on 09.30.15 at 8:58 pm

who cares about anything right now

BLUE JAYS PLAYOFF BASEBALL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 22 YEARS

after that’s over we can go back to less important matters like….life and the economy

#70 Steve French on 09.30.15 at 9:03 pm

Smoking Man:

“In other words, other rebel groups – any rebel groups – opposed to President Assad are being targeted [by Russia]. And that raises another huge question. What if the Russians start hitting US backed and armed rebel groups? That is not going to end well.

And who knows how many US special forces there might be on the ground helping those rebel groups? What if they find themselves coming under fire – do they call in US close air support to see off their Russian attackers?”

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-34405983

#71 Juan Gonzolez on 09.30.15 at 9:05 pm

Garth I enjoy your bog, read it regularly and need your serious help. I 44, wife is 42 and cold. She work 3 jobs, we have two kids, they sell on beech trinkets. We have dog duz jobs everywhere.

I work at otto plant make $2 an hour, underpay in US$.

it tricky …We own cardboard shanty we live in a ‘hood that everyone live in.

we have finish plans to do addition to shack, I have cold feet when winter comes. Wife want this cardbord addition done, sees it as upgrade, as storms coming are we safe?

#72 Smoking Man on 09.30.15 at 9:06 pm

#68 Steve French on 09.30.15 at 8:56 pm
Smoking Man:

As Dudeist Priests lets set aside our global climate change debate.

What’s the UCC telling you on Putin-Syria…

SteveO

….

Long gone.. Steve

I’ve consumed more booze than would have killed an elephant by now.

Ask me in the morning. Late morning..?

Shity way to live, arthritis hurts, you do what you do. .

Can’t turn me head anymore..

#73 IHCTD9 on 09.30.15 at 9:07 pm

#52 LJ on 09.30.15 at 7:56 pm
Here’s an improvement story: Dateline Calgary…
—————-
I know a couple in their early thirties who are playing this same game, except via building new homes, moving in for a year, and selling for tax free profit.

Their current house has been on the market for over a year and a half. One offer conditional on the bidder’s house selling which it did not. I’ve been watching it, they have recently lowered the price by $1000.00 (LOL!).

During this time their next house got built, and is now complete – except they can’t move in because the first one is not sold yet. Nor can they put the second one up for sale until they’ve lived in it for a year.

They are getting harder to talk to when I ask how the house sale is going, it used to be all they ever wanted to talk about.

The fact is, they are stuck. They are paying two big mortgages on a combined income of approx 50-60K a year, and the market for upscale houses out my way is dead, only one of the local biggies sold this year. They really can’t lower the price, but the longer they pay mortgage interest and taxes on these two houses, the more their real life margin erodes.

They’ve ignored the writing on the wall so far, but they most assuredly have some tough decisions to make coming up soon. The minute Yellen makes her move, they had better quit dreaming.

#74 DM in C on 09.30.15 at 9:08 pm

44 with an 8 and 3 year old.

Makes me happy we are 44 with a 20 and 16 year old. I know what they’re in for, and I wouldn’t want to be almost 60 dealing with it.

And bought a house for $469k 6 years ago and still owe $400k on it? On an ‘underpaid’ salary of $250k USD?

WTF is the money going?

#75 Godth on 09.30.15 at 9:18 pm

#58 Ralph Cramdown on 09.30.15 at 8:24 pm

Dude, this sounds like a waste of time then. If the goalposts get moved over a specific strain of in-bred rats that Monsanto chose to test their product on then change the experiment. We’re not all in-bred rats.

Why don’t these chemical companies allow for numerous independent long term epidemiological studies to take place? You know, let science happen.

Why don’t these same companies want GMO labeling to happen? You know, the marketplace and all that b.s.

Why are the people ignored? You know, democracy and all that.

Too bad the whole story (yields, superweeds, pests) is completely falling apart though. Best to just double down, failing that triple down.

Good luck with your investment, I’m sure it’s just short term – about the life span of an in-bred rat.

#76 Harbour on 09.30.15 at 9:27 pm

The oil crash hasn’t done shit to stop Alberta’s population growth

http://economicdashboard.albertacanada.com/Population

#77 #firstworld | Realties.ca on 09.30.15 at 9:33 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/09/30/firstworld/ […]

#78 Nora Lenderby on 09.30.15 at 9:38 pm

#59 Bytor the Snow Dog on 09.30.15 at 8:26 pm
Why does the Internet make:
1) Every man’s wife hot?

I told my husband I was hot.
He made me install 3 ceiling fans.

#79 For those about to flop... on 09.30.15 at 9:44 pm

So I go to work today and my boss calls me outside and tells me he is shutting down his company in about a month . Too many hours not enough reward apparently.
He told me I am free to find a new job or I can stay for the month.
I told him not to worry about me and that I have been taking care of myself since I was 15 but I am a little bit nervous this time .
Maybe I will become a real estate agent…nah I’m not sleazy enough, I come from a small island ( Tasmania )
and although I’ve lived in decent size cities like London and Vancouver I still have the village mentality of being honest and looking after people.
Maybe I’ll see if the Libs or the orange guys need there own Australian spin doctor.The Tasmanian Devil at your service!

#80 Harold on 09.30.15 at 9:49 pm

I think it’s time to bring in a capital gains tax on residential real estate. That should put a lid on all this speculation and make people think twice about selling and moving up.

#81 ozy - NO RENO & FIRE DA WIFE on 09.30.15 at 9:50 pm

patched-on gigs do not sell for 1.4 mil – you’re lucky if u net 80000

2 options: fire the wife and live like a king…

or tell her to suck it up, or be fired

that’s it – I am surprised someone that makes that much dough has low level of manipulative behavior detection skills…

dump her

#82 Smoking Man on 09.30.15 at 9:55 pm

To my tradres… Tosed out like bath water.
This cash tune for you
Pricks…
…….
It don’t hurt anymore
All my teardrops have dried
No more walkin’ the floor
With that burnin’ inside
Just to think it could be
Time has opened the door
And at last I am free
I don’t hurt anymore
No use to deny I wanted to die
The day you said we were through
But now that I find you’re out of my mind
I can’t believe that it’s true
I’ve forgotten somehow
That I cared so before
And it’s wonderful now
I don’t hurt anymore
No use to deny I wanted to die
The day you said we were through
But now that I find you’re out of my mind
I can’t believe that it’s true
I’ve forgotten somehow
That I cared so before
And it’s wonderful now
I don’t hurt anymore

#83 cmj on 09.30.15 at 9:58 pm

Garth, I’m glad you have given Charles another way of moving money around and finding a solution for investments and having his wife happier with a new home.
There is a balance in “money, money, money”. A friend of mine wanted to renovate her 25 year old tired townhouse yet her husband refused. He didn’t want to take on any debt. Her $75K renovation was able to be done through an LOC. They are in their late 70s with great pensions and other investments. Both are happy with the renos and have no difficulty with the added costs.

#84 Randy Randerson on 09.30.15 at 10:08 pm

For those who has a CCPC and is wondering whether it’s better to invest your surplus within it, or withdraw it and invest in you TFSA, Jamie Golombek has a new article to answer that question.

http://www.jamiegolombek.com/media/TFSAs-for-Business-Owners-EN.PDF

TL;DR version: With interest and eligible dividend, stick with TFSA. Capital gain realized annually is a wash. Deferred cap gain is better within CCPC. Author assumes that you’re in the top marginal bracket for non-eligible dividend. If you’re in a lower bracket, mileage may vary.

#85 Ronaldo on 09.30.15 at 10:09 pm

#57 Tony

”The reason why the average person always and will always die broke.”

Why would you want to die rich? Seems like bad planning to me.

#86 how many Torontonians does it take to screw in a lightbulb? on 09.30.15 at 10:15 pm

http://henrymakow.com/upload_images/WorldPride_810_500_55_s_c1.jpg

#87 20 Days to an NDP Government! on 09.30.15 at 10:17 pm

The NDP will actually be the best of all parties in dealing with the imminent housing correction.

As for the one percenters, stock up on thirsty underwear. You’ll need it :)

#88 Investorz on 09.30.15 at 10:20 pm

“most people do the opposite, selling decliners and buying advancers believing current events are now permanent.”

Canadians are trend followers. Garth is a value investor. The trend has been your friend. Can’t put a stop loss on a house though.

My sister in law makes 40k a year and a lender offered her a 550k mortgage with 3.5% down. The party keeps going.

#89 Holy Crap Whered The Tylenol on 09.30.15 at 10:24 pm

Smoking Man as I told you before war is coming!

#90 MF on 09.30.15 at 10:30 pm

#48 Smoking Man on 09.30.15 at 7:24 pm

Okay that message made me smile.

#192 maxx on 09.30.15 at 8:10 am

Here’s an update from that story about my relative.

He’s in the rehab wing of the hospital now and being watched over by a social worker. The same social worker went to check out his house and while she was there this Realtor showed up with someone else! She called my parents as soon as possible to ask about this real estate agent asking “personal financial questions”. She made sure not to say anything.

It’s insane man. The depths of which these realtors will steep. I told my parents to get in touch with the realtor ASAP and threaten legal action (not necessarily go through with it), just to shoo them away.

What scum.

MF

#91 MF on 09.30.15 at 10:38 pm

#69 Mike T. on 09.30.15 at 8:58 pm

Incredible! Just went back to the parents house and dug up the Toronto Star newspaper from October 1993 that I meticulously saved. Was like opening up a time capsule. All the big names were there: Molitor, Carter, Olerud, Alomar etc. Even the Leafs articles were nostalgic. They were all about Andreychuk, Gilmour, Potvin. No raptors since they didn’t exist yet lol

Unbelievable. Hopefully we can repeat 1992/1993.

MF

#92 TurnerNation on 09.30.15 at 10:40 pm

Re; McJobs Toronto Star reporting some local McDonalds replacing order takers by tablets.
Self serve.

I’d eat there if it was the last place on Earth.

#93 Ronaldo on 09.30.15 at 10:40 pm

Tony, thought this might be interesting reading for you.

http://www.bankrate.com/finance/financial-literacy/forget-about-retiring-live-rich-and-die-broke-2.aspx

#94 Edward on 09.30.15 at 10:46 pm

The often quoted (by this blog and others) noble prize winning economist, Robert Shiller says that Canadian housing could be in a bubble. But he also says the Dow could drop to 11,000 in the next 2 years.

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/9/30/Dow-could-drop-to-11000-Economist-.aspx

#95 Steve French on 09.30.15 at 10:52 pm

Smokey:

Drinking JD every day.. i don’t know how you can do it.

After one solid booze up, and I’m out of action for the next 2-3 days.

Hangovers makes me feel depressed.

#96 gut check on 09.30.15 at 10:52 pm

odd advice tonight.
seems like a capitulation which, given the track record, must mean the market is finally about to catastrophically burst.
if you don’t mind me saying, it’s just that I’ve been reading for a few years and ‘live in the real world’

#97 45north on 09.30.15 at 10:56 pm

We have finished plans to do an addition to our home and I have cold feet. We owe 400, add 300 we now owe 700K . If you believe the crazies, I could list my house post reno for 1.4M as it’s a fair comparison to the house listed behind me now. Lovey wants this house done. Yesterday. She sees it as an immediate life experience upgrade, a workable house and she believes it has a lot of equity, and that even though a crash is coming, we are safe.

couple of things: when you do a $300 K renovation on a $500,000 house it’s not the same as building a $800 K from the footings up. it’s just not that valuable.

as B Riding Dirty says it’s gona take a year

I have my own company suppose you have some asset worth $500 K. I’m selling something here’s my pitch “invest another $300 K and then sell the whole thing for $1.4 million”. You figure that’s most unlikely.

oh yeah LJ’s story: Neighbour bought a house up the street in ’06, at the prior peak, for over $500,000. Then he proceeded to put $300,000 of renovations into the house

as Garth says “we all live in the real world”. Okay, here’s my question/ theory: your business is co-related to the housing market? Means that if housing goes down then so does your business. That doesn’t mean you go out of business just that you have less business. So tell your wife. She needs to know.

#98 Washed Up Lawyer on 09.30.15 at 11:22 pm

#93 Ronaldo on 09.30.15 at 10:40 pm

Re: Living Rich and Dying Broke
****************************

My life is just a race between a bankruptcy trustee and the Canada Revenue Agency. I’ll be watching from the sidelines.

#99 For those about to flop... on 09.30.15 at 11:23 pm

#92 TurnerNation on 09.30.15 at 10:40 pm
Re; McJobs Toronto Star reporting some local McDonalds replacing order takers by tablets.
Self serve.

I’d eat there if it was the last place on Earth.

———————————-
I’d rather eat laundry lint.You know the shit you get out of the tumble dryer filter.

#100 SarahP on 09.30.15 at 11:49 pm

#26 Smoking Man on 09.30.15 at 6:10 pm

True Story, how can I expect anyone to beilive it after years of claiming the title of the world’s best bull shit artist.

I’m the best VBA Developer in the world, I said I should teach it. I can’t keep up with the demand.

——-
heh – vba is on the bottom

http://www.devsaran.com/blog/10-best-programming-languages-2015-you-should-know

#101 Edward on 09.30.15 at 11:51 pm

It’s also interesting that Robert Shiller has a new book out about manipulation of the market. He co-wrote it with George Akerloff, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen’s husband and himself a Nobel winner. Do you think he might have some insight at the potential risks of the market when he says that the Dow could be at 11,000 in a couple of years?

He also says that he has been measuring investor confidence in the markets since 1989. It is now at a low.

#102 Smoking Man on 10.01.15 at 12:00 am

Naked In my room fighting the keyboard, dancing to when I was young songs.

It’s sort of pathetic, but feels good.

If bastards could only live one day in my life.

It would be magic…

#103 Smoking Man on 10.01.15 at 12:03 am

9 Holy Crap Whered The Tylenol on 09.30.15 at 10:24 pm
Smoking Man as I told you before war is coming.

You told me?

Kiss your kids, I’m going for another drink.

#104 Edward on 10.01.15 at 12:07 am

“There’s no love lost between Canadians and the stock market. Canadians have found something else to be emotionally and financially invested in: real estate.”

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/money-economy/theres-no-love-lost-between-canadians-and-the-stock-market/

#105 Hemingwasted on 10.01.15 at 12:19 am

#95 Steve French on 09.30.15 at 10:52 pm
Smokey:

Drinking JD every day.. i don’t know how you can do it.

After one solid booze up, and I’m out of action for the next 2-3 days.

Hangovers makes me feel depressed.”

Agreed, I am calling BS on this SM’s reported drinking….most likely a teetotaler with a penchant for literary fictional drinking….kind of like Hemingway, although it didn’t end well for him either….

#106 Don Derc on 10.01.15 at 12:26 am

Charles, you greater fool….do nothing! Do not take on more debt. You, like most Canucks, will now learn to “live with less”, like your forefathers. Only you don’t have to crap in the woods (unless your homeless in Kitsilano).

And Charles, since smoking man is doing his Sinatra impersonation….

Get a job
Sha na na na
na na na na na

yip yip yip yip
yip yip yip yip
boom boom boom boom
get a job

Harper – 700,000 new home owners by 2020? Really? Does this offset the baby boomers and the RRSP/mandatory RIF that will have the grey herd withdrawing all at the same time?

Nothing like running an illegal war economy on a credit card….

Chris Hedges anyone?

#107 Gold on 10.01.15 at 12:35 am

Pure gold:

“First world problems. That’s what this pathetic blog is all about, of course. So why should we start getting serious now? Social justice, world peace and tree health is for wusses.”

#108 OXI in GREECE !! on 10.01.15 at 12:37 am

Canada? First world?

If you have ever traveled to “other” first world countries I think Canada rates a 1.5…..but not a 1.

#109 Tony on 10.01.15 at 12:39 am

Re: #93 Ronaldo on 09.30.15 at 10:40 pm

This is dying broke.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2275206/Hong-Kongs-metal-cage-homes-How-tens-thousands-live-6ft-2ft-rabbit-hutches.html#comments

#110 jane 24 on 10.01.15 at 12:49 am

Garth this would be very good advice if this couple has asked you last year. Now it is too late as such a major reno would take a year to do and by Oct 2016 it will be a different RE world.

So great idea but the timing is probably off.

#111 Nagraj on 10.01.15 at 1:48 am

I had to take a laugh break after “my wife is 42 and hot. Lovey … ” and never really recovered.

A LETTER FROM LOVEY
Dear Dr. Turner,
I just accidentally ran over my fat husband as I was backing out of the garage. He’s all mangled and dead. I thought I ran over a leaf bag. I would appreciate some advice on estate taxes and short term investments.
Sincerely yours, L.

P.S.
I will be taking tango lessons to help me get over my grief.

P.P.S.
You may call me Sweetie.

#112 Bill on 10.01.15 at 2:28 am

Garth, I would have told this guy to ram it!
Maybe I should share my million dollar sob story then your readers can boot me in the berries.

#113 Freedom First on 10.01.15 at 2:48 am

#82 Smoking Man

Thanks Smokey. Cash is good. That made me feel better, as I just realized something from your Post. Women handle me letting them go pretty good over the years, compared to women I’ve seen getting divorced. I am sure it’s because I don’t live with them. I call it another bonus in being a single man. Nobody really cares about you. I am sure it’s because nobody can control me. I appreciate it too, as it is never my intention to hurt anyone. They know my rules going in.

#114 Freedom First on 10.01.15 at 3:07 am

#71 Juan Gonzolez

She is cold? Wants a bigger shack? First things first. Send the kids for a blood test. They’re probably not yours. Then vamoose, as in adios. De Nada.

#115 MSM-Free Zone on 10.01.15 at 3:30 am

#53 IHCTD9 on 09.30.15 at 7:57 pm
_________________________

Marco Muzzo! Is that you???

http://toronto.ctvnews.ca/muzzo-allegedly-drove-twice-the-speed-limit-before-fatal-vaughan-crash-police-sources-1.2589370

#116 Great Canadian Bubble Co. on 10.01.15 at 4:41 am

Networth of only $370,000 in your mid 40s? Globe and Mail would give you half a star on your retirement review.

But seriously, good job on the business. Now what do you do?

#117 Ralph Cramdown on 10.01.15 at 7:09 am

#65 gladiator — “If only people realized how important it is to know programming… That’s why my 9 year-old daughter is going to a robotics class and will be learning to program in C.”

Why stunt her growth like that?

http://web.mit.edu/alexmv/6.037/sicp.pdf

#118 jess on 10.01.15 at 7:19 am

BLUE JAYS PLAYOFF BASEBALL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 22 YEARS

Biologist EO Wilson on Why Humans, Like Ants, Need a Tribe

#119 Ralph Cramdown on 10.01.15 at 7:23 am

#75 Godth — “Why don’t these chemical companies allow for numerous independent long term epidemiological studies to take place? You know, let science happen.”

Millions of tons of the stuff is grown every year, and you only need a few bushels of each of the GMO and the non-GMO to do a large enough study. I’m sure most farmers would give you that much for free, or you could hop a fence and they’d hardly notice. Get to it!

Or sit at home, do nothing, and complain that it’s because the company isn’t giving you permission to act.

#120 jess on 10.01.15 at 7:51 am

Starting Saturday, the real-estate industry will be subject to new disclosure rules, courtesy of the Dodd-Frank law and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Lenders will be required to make transparent and complete disclosure of the terms of mortgages — including all costs and fees.

Financial Reform?
Crocodile Tears From Mortgage Lenders
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-09-30/crocodile-tears-from-mortgage-lenders

#121 TJM on 10.01.15 at 8:21 am

My first thought is, “Has Garth’s blog been hacked by a very clever impostor?”

Like, let’s give this a basic sniff test. Could list for 700 today and probably get it. With a 300k reno, could turn around and sell it for 1.4 million. So…. 300k automatically returns 700k? That sounds like some seriously wishful thinking.

If it were that simple, why are people buying houses to tear down and build $1.4million houses? Why don’t they just buy the houses, spend $300k and make the profit themselves?

Even assuming that, 300k automatically nets 700k quickly enough that you know you can make the sale before everything comes crashing down? Maybe, maybe not… this bubble has gone on longer than any reasonable expectation it could, but then bubbles are like that.

“If you believe the crazies around here” is a pretty big if. “Garth” seems to be suggesting not only that you should believe them, but also that they’ll stay right for the next year or so. Very un-Garth.

Seems to me you’re just as likely to borrow 300, make the reno, market tanks while you do it and your end product sells for under a million, or not at all… a lot of work and hassle for nothing.

Also, just gotta say… how is it you bought for $469 six years ago and now still owe “under $400k” which I take to be the high $300’s? How much are you paying each month? At your income, what the hell? Where is it all going? It’s sure not paying down your mortgage.

#122 jess on 10.01.15 at 8:41 am

5 Disgust will make me vote on 09.30.15 at 5:40 pm

yeah, and that latest bloc ad

“Fear,” as the Roman poet Lucretius said, “was the first thing on earth to make the gods.”

#123 Jamie Dimon on 10.01.15 at 9:00 am

some real world financial tips an strategies and all I can think about is this guys hot cougar wife.

#124 Renter's Revenge! on 10.01.15 at 9:09 am

#104 Edward

“There’s no love lost between Canadians and the stock market. Canadians have found something else to be emotionally and financially invested in: real estate.”

Housing is like the “distraction noodle” in the KD commercials, while your roommate steals your bowl of dividend paying stocks.

#125 saskatoon on 10.01.15 at 9:11 am

#91 MF

unless you are on the team…

“WE” aren’t going to repeat anything.

“THEY” are.

#126 AfterTheHouseSold on 10.01.15 at 9:16 am

Lovey? Isn’t that Thurston Howell 111’s wife? After living in that cramped shack on the island for all those years its no wonder she wants the reno! It all makes sense now.

#127 gladiator on 10.01.15 at 9:51 am

@117 Ralph Cramdown:

Because Miley Sirius and Justin Beeber will stunt her growth even more if I don’t take her focus away from them.
I’d rather she uses her time to create than consume the pop-fart stuff.

#128 45north on 10.01.15 at 10:03 am

Nagraj: I will be taking tango lessons to help me get over my grief.

pretty funny

TJM: Has Garth’s blog been hacked by a very clever impostor?

e-mails asking for free advice on a public blog are fair game. As Garth says: So why should we start getting serious now?

#129 fancy_pants on 10.01.15 at 10:13 am

problem: red light flashing from below
solution: safety device reporting to Canadian Security Intelligence Service

#130 Dave in Kincardine on 10.01.15 at 10:22 am

Garth, this recommendation although good, has too many variables. Reno? Selling? Buying? Moving? The more variables the less chance of it working the way you want.

As Dave Chilton says be good savers. That is half the battle. What you put it in; House, RSP, TFSA, RESP can come next. It seems obvious to me that you get the later items topped up before anything else is discussed. Simple.

#131 Broke Dick on 10.01.15 at 10:28 am

Chuck bought house for $469, owes just under $400. But says he could list and sell for $700. Is his equity not $300?
Less fees of course.

Fundamental to this is the fact that in your forties with four dependents, no pension, making serious money, you’re behind the curve. Three hundred thousand in liquid assets is not stellar when you have a mortgage larger than that and only $70,000 in real estate equity – G

#132 NoName on 10.01.15 at 10:40 am

@gladiator

I had same idea 4yrs ago, daughter same age got her aurdino, whole bunch of sensor servos etc, but didn’t work out…

Maybe you should shelf C for couple of years, and get her lego ev3 or nxt2 at that age would be bit better choice.

#133 Godth on 10.01.15 at 10:45 am

#119 Ralph Cramdown on 10.01.15 at 7:23 am

Oh wow, that’s a brilliant suggestion. Maybe you should contact one of these folks and ask them why they never thought of it:
http://www.centerforfoodsafety.org/press-releases/3766/are-gmos-safe-no-consensus-in-the-science-scientists-say-in-peer-reviewed-statement#

They’ve provided their e-mails and everything.

#134 Ralph Cramdown on 10.01.15 at 11:07 am

#127 gladiator — “Because Miley Sirius and Justin Beeber will stunt her growth even more if I don’t take her focus away from them.”

Sorry — I was glib and too trite. Teach her computer programming, by all means. But I’m a big believer in the Whorf hypothesis. If you teach her a crummy language to start, you’ll limit what she thinks computers can be programmed to do. I don’t have too many regrets in my life, but that I didn’t discover the book I referenced above, twenty years earlier… would make the top ten. I am quite aware of how bizarre that sounds.

Enough about that… way off topic for this blog, and I thank the moderator for his indulgence thus far.

#135 Letsrig on 10.01.15 at 11:12 am

BNN interviews Ira Gluskin. Real Estate bull. He definitely reads this blog. Likely the comments too.

http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=717555

#136 Eddie on 10.01.15 at 11:28 am

If

1. you make $250-300k per year
2. Only have 350k saved up
3. Bought a house for $469k but still have $400k on the mortgage 6 years later

then I think the first thing you have to do is go over your spending habits, there appears to be a black hole in your pocket.

Spending basically all the money you are making (just over 1 year’s income saved up at 44??) means you’re poor or stupid. Hey, I’m not against living like a player, but you gotta make the money to back it up.

#137 MF on 10.01.15 at 11:34 am

#125 saskatoon on 10.01.15 at 9:11 am

Yeah i’m actually the back up bat catcher lol.

Of course, but if you talk to any Torontonian who experienced the repeated attempts and failures of the Blue Jays from the Mid 80’s to early 90’s, you will hear about how much they were loved as a team. Everyone was obsessed, especially kids like me at the time.

Talk to anyone who remembers those days and they are fondly remembered as warm and fuzzy. The city was brought together unlike anything I have seen since.

Obviously we are all old and cynical now, but it’s still fun to watch and remember how it felt way back then when houses in the GTA cost 30000 and the Blue Jays finally accomplished the impossible after trying year after year.

MF

#138 Edward on 10.01.15 at 11:50 am

http://t.thestar.com/#/article/news/federal-election/2015/10/01/conservatives-out-in-front-new-poll-finds.html

#139 Calgary Rip off on 10.01.15 at 12:02 pm

That guy that wrote saying his wife wants a home renovation-he married the wrong woman. All this and she still isnt happy? What a joke! Man up dude, the worst that can happen is she can leave! What is she going to do, shoot you if she doesnt get her way?

I dont know what it is with these guys that marry these women are they stupid or what?

Does he not realize that all women have certain assets? Why did he marry one with high maintenance?

Him and his wife are both morons.

#140 Mister Obvious on 10.01.15 at 12:46 pm

#97 45north

“…when you do a $300 K renovation on a $500,000 house it’s not the same as building a $800 K from the footings up. it’s just not that valuable.”
——————————–

I’ll say! The contractor will tell you he needs six months to complete the job. That will be a lie. Double it and add a month or two more. You will need to move out for that period of time or risk your marriage.

In the early eighties I was in home renovation. The bottom had fallen put of the new home market and anyone with cash on Vancouver’s west side was doing massive renovations to their 40-year-old junk boxes.

There were families crowded into the corners of basements cooking on a hot plate and spending the night in sleeping bags. For months. Children were miserable and marriages failed.

Contractors had several houses on the go and rotated their crews through them. Some houses only had workers on the job every three days or so. I witnessed a few fisticuffs.

In the end they were left with beautifully renovated junk boxes. Today they are being demolished to build new homes. Warning!!! Money sink!!!

#141 M_S on 10.01.15 at 12:52 pm

“I figure he goes bust. The Calgary market is toast (and sinking) but there are a lot of these guys out there throwing money like this into “improvements” that they hope will get them out of the Huge Hole that they dug for themselves!”

Similar story here:
http://www.milliondollarjourney.com/net-worth-update-september-2015-nobleea-the-oil-and-gas-engineer-3-82.htm

I see too much networth in housing, at what appears as a bad timing for Alberta RE market

Before I thought that Garth was saying too much net worth in housing is a “no no” – Not sure anymore what Garth is saying

#142 Edward on 10.01.15 at 1:02 pm

http://calgaryherald.com/business/real-estate/calgary-housing-market-see-biggest-price-drop-this-year-in-september

#143 Anthony on 10.01.15 at 1:05 pm

If he expects his house to be worth $650K

You suggest a $300K reno and he will be able to sell his house for $1.4M, increasing the value by $750K. There’s no way.

I agree with a lot of things you say Garth, but that sounds like something that would be said on HGTV.

#144 S.Bby on 10.01.15 at 1:17 pm

Overheard at the local community center last night; youngish 20’s guy: “my best friend just bought a house and I’m going over there with a bottle of champagne”. Congratulations on your new debt… I mean, new house…

#145 Ralph Cramdown on 10.01.15 at 1:27 pm

#133 Godth — “Oh wow, that’s a brilliant suggestion. Maybe you should contact one of these folks and ask them why they never thought of it”

Why would I do that? You sent me a link to an advocacy group run by another lawyer who pays himself $250,000 a year to:
a) not do any science
b) complain that others aren’t (apparently) doing enough science for his liking.
In my earlier message, I suggested you could start experimenting. Alternatively, you could donate money to somebody who is experimenting. Or, hey, you could give money to the lawyer so he can keep complaining that nobody is doing anything.

But asking me to email the lawyer? Total waste of your time and mine. I’ve already put a significant amount of money on what I think will be the winning side of the issue.

#146 young & foolish on 10.01.15 at 1:36 pm

The secret of financial success? Ride the big trends, and arrange to have multiple sources for cash flow to keep you solvent.

#147 Godth on 10.01.15 at 1:58 pm

#145 Ralph Cramdown on 10.01.15 at 1:27 pm
Maybe you should have read the link until the end.
For interviews, contact:
Doug Gurian-Sherman, PhD, Senior Scientist, Center for Food Safety, contact Abigail Seiler, [email protected]
Michael Hansen, PhD, Senior Scientist, Consumers Union, [email protected]
Marcia Ishii-Eiteman, PhD, Senior Scientist, Pesticide Action Network, contact Paul Towers, [email protected]
David Schubert, PhD, professor and head of the Cellular Neurobiology Laboratory, Salk Institute [email protected]
Ray Seidler, PhD, former Senior Scientist, Environmental Protection Agency, [email protected]

#148 Investorz on 10.01.15 at 2:00 pm

BMO raises rates on its advertised “Smart” fixed mtgs:
→ 5yr jumps 0.10% to 2.69%
→ 10yr rises 0.05% to 3.64%

Why now, I wonder.

#149 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 10.01.15 at 2:03 pm

#102 Smoking Man on 10.01.15 at 12:00 am
Naked In my room fighting the keyboard, dancing to when I was young songs.
It’s sort of pathetic, but feels good.
If bastards could only live one day in my life.
It would be magic…
____________________________________________
Went out to dinner last night with a buddy of mine who owns a company on Grand Island NY. The restaurant we went to is called Salvatore s up in Depew. Its OK not bad food and sort of overdone decor. My buddy has a cabin cruiser on the upper Niagara River. Anyway we were discussing Russia & USA re Syria and have the same conclusion that if ever a middle east war starts it could be here and now with this being the trigger for the big one. Putin thrusts his chest forward like the cock of the rock and cant step backwards. Mr Obama is a lame duck and is just trying to ease out of the presidency without dragging his name into a war. He is however the President and if he gets pushed, he has to push back. I mentioned your the IT guy on a blog that rolls heavy at Seneca Casino. My buddy laughed hard, he said that place is like walking through a smouldering ruins as it is smoky as hell. I said well he calls himself Smoking Man! My buddy said he used to play craps and cards there but they lowered his comps and now he strictly does Las Vegas for his gambling as they fly him out and pretty much pay for everything. I had to ask him what he used to spend gambling at Niagara Falls and he said around $500K per year! He can afford it easily but I asked him wouldn’t you rather gamble on the market? He said nope, this was the wife’s and his bi-monthly fun until they got cheapo. He used to get front row tickets to every show, Ipads, Iphones and his wife got Micheal Kors purses. Every time he went they gave them spas, dinners at a really nice steak house and once he was given a Seadoo. Apparently new management came in from some other Native Casino and it all went to hell. He said screw them and stopped going. They have called him almost every week to get him to come back for about 6 months now. So whats the story at this place Smoking Man? What is so attractive?
Oh yes for you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=632H5C-hNts

#150 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 10.01.15 at 2:15 pm

#237 TheManwhoStaresatSheeple on 09.30.15 at 1:10 pm
Re #200 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol
Putin has an agenda!
Yes, he has one, and it is to protect his people.
Now, you can watch this video and tell me – what the USA agenda is.
https://youtu.be/xi7M_P2ldsQ?t=1m14s

And it is a recent one – so one cannot claims things has changed since…!
_____________________________________________
Lets face it the US wants to rule the world and a destabilized Europe is conducive to US interests. That is without Germany and the Russians hooking up. The Germans need USA and they want to keep it that way. We were talking of the Euro being the new dominant world currency now it doesn’t look as likely. As for ISIS in spite of what they are saying it is a threat. However the greater threat is from within the US. That they are aware of! You can always wipe ISIS out outside the borders but you have to watch your own backyard.

#151 M_S on 10.01.15 at 2:42 pm

“If he expects his house to be worth $650K

You suggest a $300K reno and he will be able to sell his house for $1.4M, increasing the value by $750K. There’s no way.

I agree with a lot of things you say Garth, but that sounds like something that would be said on HGTV.”

Just checked Brad J Lamb’s twitter. No, he is not promoting diversified portfolios …

#152 Edward on 10.01.15 at 2:49 pm

“Canadian house price rise outstrips all but 3 other global markets. Low dollar makes Canadian housing cheap.”

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canadian-house-price-rise-outstrips-all-but-3-other-global-markets-1.3252406

#153 Russ on 10.01.15 at 3:16 pm

Anthony on 10.01.15 at 1:05 pm

If he expects his house to be worth $650K

You suggest a $300K reno and he will be able to sell his house for $1.4M, increasing the value by $750K. There’s no way.

I agree with a lot of things you say Garth, but that sounds like something that would be said on HGTV.
===================================

Hey Tony,

I suggest that you (and many others) reread Garth’s message.

Chuck provided the details, not Garth.

Garth generously provided a plan to deal with the fruits of Chuck’s plan. If it doesn’t work out as expected then c’est la vie. Count it as experience and move on.

The fact most of us think Chuck is full of crap is truly expressed in the above comments.
I believe chuck is running out of time to benifit form the upcoming experience, but that is not my problem. At least Lovey will be happy for a while :)

#154 Russ on 10.01.15 at 3:19 pm

correction request:
change “benifit form” in the final paragraph, to “benefit from”

Thanks, R

#155 Josh in Calgary on 10.01.15 at 3:36 pm

#74 DM in C on 09.30.15 at 9:08 pm
44 with an 8 and 3 year old.

Makes me happy we are 44 with a 20 and 16 year old. I know what they’re in for, and I wouldn’t want to be almost 60 dealing with it.

And bought a house for $469k 6 years ago and still owe $400k on it? On an ‘underpaid’ salary of $250k USD?

WTF is the money going?
————–
I know a lot of people like that. It wouldn’t matter how much money they make, they spend virtually every penny they make every year. If they make more? It just means they buy a car every 2 years instead of 4. A Lexus instead of a Toyota. 5 star vacation instead of 4. $50 bottles of wine on the rack at home instead of $30. Eat out at $50 a plate places instead of $25. Own the latest model of phone every year instead of every 2, etc., etc.

It doesn’t matter how much money you make if you have the mentality that it’s ok to spend it if it’s in the bank (or worse yet if there’s room on the credit card). There’s always someone willing to help you spend it.

Like I said, there are probably more people out there like this than there are people who get a “thrill” out of watching their liquid assets grow.

#156 Smoking Man on 10.01.15 at 4:00 pm

#149 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 10.01.15 at 2:03 pm

Your buddy is gambling wrong, your status is based on average play your last ten visits.

So you’re stay over, wife plays her free play 100 bucks, adds a few more hundreds, you need play low latency slots, they pay offen but huge. Hence for a few 100 you have a 50 point night, by the way, only 25 points gets you in the loser lounge (chairman)

Next day they offer 25 in free slot play, so your buddy probably plays it out, getting one point. That brings the average down. He’s now a nobody again.

Also we just play on one card, hence doubling points.

Centre suites,
Corner suites
Free Golf
Free Cruise.

Ask your buddy if he is hooked up with Ceasars, Ron runs the entire north east, he’s my pall. I’ve gotten non gamblers on flights with us to AC and LasVegas if flight has Xtra seats.
…….

As for me, I don’t play much, I like getting blitzed on premium drinks, listening to tunes, and coming on here sharing my adventures.

As far as Obama, I’ve figured it out. He’s in on it with Putin, the Iran nuke deal for example, I know old Henry Kissinger is his pall. The NEOCONS have pushed things too far, they’re trying to rain them in a bit. Isreal will perhaps starts playing nice with the rock throughers.
But Obama look of displeasure is an act.

But it sucks for Ala akbar dudes. They’re meeting God very soon. Got a feeling Russia is not messing around.

Watching Lindsay Graham, and McCain having a sissy fit is truly enjoyable.

#157 Smoking Man on 10.01.15 at 4:02 pm

Damn last post.

For points
You play machines that pay often but not big amounts vs machines that rearly pay out, but when they do its huge.

#158 LTL_FTC on 10.01.15 at 4:12 pm

You funny Garth,

Realizing that many of your commenters have trouble reading what’s on the lines, let alone what’s between them, your piece seems to be saying ‘bring it on’ to them!

Ralph Waldo Emerson:

“To be great is to be misunderstood.”

You must be great.

#159 LTL_FTC on 10.01.15 at 4:13 pm

Addendum

I know that it is a logical fallacy to say All A is B, therefore all B must be A.

#160 Smoking Man on 10.01.15 at 4:23 pm

#100 SarahP on 09.30.15 at 11:49 pm
#26 Smoking Man on 09.30.15 at 6:10 pm

True Story, how can I expect anyone to beilive it after years of claiming the title of the world’s best bull shit artist.

I’m the best VBA Developer in the world, I said I should teach it. I can’t keep up with the demand.

——-
heh – vba is on the bottom

http://www.devsaran.com/blog/10-best-programming-languages-2015-you-should-know
…..

Ha you missed the obvious, vba isn’t even on the list.

Sure Java is sexy but developers are a dime a dozen, supply and demand, and I can do java with my eyes closed but it don’t pay.

Excel VBA. Is vast, not respected, what is the number one tool that big businesses use. Why it’s excel vba.

University only scratches the surface, dire need for experts especially now that alot of off shore us less dudes are putting out garbage. Where you going to find them.

Hence Supply and Demand, chuckle away while I earn over 1000 US a day getting paid to do a hobby. Oh and mostly working from home(senica) on my new us gig.

#161 jess on 10.01.15 at 5:20 pm

Harper 1997 speech
” libertarian side of the conservative spectrum”
read how he describes canadians etc

The full text of a speech by Stephen Harper, then vice-president of the National Citizens Coalition, to a June 1997 Montreal meeting of the Council for National Policy, a right-wing U.S. think tank, and taken from the council’s website:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/text-of-harpers-speech/article1131985/?page=all

http://www.truth-out.org/buzzflash/commentary/islamophobia-sweeps-across-canada-as-conservative-party-supports-veil-ban

#162 jess on 10.01.15 at 5:36 pm

it seems that the more some of those ‘republicans’ speak more money flows into Mr. Saunders

Bernie Sanders Raises $26 Million In 3rd Quarter, Nearly As Much As Clinton
NPR‎ – 9 hours ago

http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2015/10/01/444951689/bernie-sanders-raises-26-million-in-third-quarter-nearly-as-much-as-clinton

#163 Investorz on 10.01.15 at 7:40 pm

National Bank just announced it will layoff a few hundred employees. Let’s assume other big banks will do the same.

Big banks are huge employers, especially in Toronto. We’ll see what that does to the demand for condos downtown.

#164 farsyd on 10.02.15 at 8:33 am

Spend the 300K and do the reno. Then only partly listen to Garth as his advice was that of someone without small kids. List and move only if the new commute to company is not going to take away from time with your kids. Also the school area you move to should be just as good, not just academically but socially (i am a fan of multicultural schools). Also will the new area have libraries, community centres and shopping for your family. Think about your family and your relationship to them. An extra $500K is just gravy over the things that really matter.

#165 Charles on 10.02.15 at 6:18 pm

Wow. Am I sorry I emailed in.
Truthfully, “Lovie” isn’t that hot, I love her and she s really beautiful as far as I am concerned, I knew she’d read the blog so I called her Lovie that to make her feel good. I’m such a terrible person. Oh, and my dog is just a dog, he isn’t really a black hole of emotional need, that’s not even my joke.
I haven’t been making a lot of money for a long time. I only recently (last few years) started making that much money. The money I was “wasting” over the last few years on partying and snorting coke off my hot wife and my first world problems was actually going to paying off a lot of debt, and my share-holder-loan that, as Garth points out, “most businesses have.” I no longer have a share holder loan, and I even have the money in my account for my giant tax bill. Imagine! I own my cars too, a 2008 and a 2010 – I’m living like a rockstar in a minivan and a jeep with two dented fenders and a cracked windshield that I don’t want to pay to fix. That I have paid off all the debt I have, and also $70K on my mortgage is amazing. I did all of this while creating employment for employees and contractors and paying a lot of taxes – corporate and personal, and with the assistance of Lovie, who buys her clothes second hand (at Ricochet in Westboro for those who care.) My house would sell for $700K because people are crazy, I would never buy my house for $700K. Each year I contribute at least $50K to my RSP, as well as to various charities – some of them are corporate donations to organizations in the USA, so I don’t even get a tax credit, which is cool, because that’s not why I donate. I owe $400K (approx, actually less) and if I spent $300K my total debt would be $700K. There are zero houses in my ‘hood (which is in Ottawa) for sale for $700K or less that are comparable to mine. If there were, I’d buy one. They are, truly, tear downs. My reasoning – and clearly I must be some kind of greedy, 1%er who never ever worked 7 days a week for years, not going on vacation and building a business with zero assistance from any of you – is that if my house were done, and I owed $700K I could at the very least ask for $1.something as all the other houses that are for sale, (and selling) sell for that much, and they would not be nearly as nice as mine post reno. I have no desire to do this. Even I, moronic 1%er know that being 44 and owing $700K is a bad idea – thanks for the benefit of the doubt.
Here is the biggest lesson … you cynics, is your immediate jump to assume the worst of someone. Holy cow. Hey so you know, I also own a cottage outright, and I own my mother’s condo and pay the mortgage there so the original Lovie (that’s my mom watch it) can enjoy her 80s without concern. I have about 100K equity in that place.