For the love of a house

CONDOMS1

In June of 2002, three years before the US housing market collapsed in an event which nearly brought the world down, President Bush issued America’s Homeownership Challenge. The ownership rate spurted as a result of tax breaks, generous lending and government support. In 2004 it peaked at 69.2%.

Homeownership, said George Bush, “is the cornerstone of America’s vibrant communities and benefits individual families by building stability and long-term financial security.” Not long after, middle class families had lost trillions in net worth and faced personal crisis as real estate shed 32% of its value. No stability. No security. Many tears.

Since then, the rate’s crashed to 63.4%, the lowest since 1967 – almost four decades. Government, it turned out, pushed on a string, appealed to emotion and greed, encouraged excessive debt and helped create the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. All for the love of a house.

On Tuesday, in a distant Toronto suburb, Stephen Harper wielded a nail gun, gave a presser and said this: “Homeownership provides Canadian families with financial stability and strengthens our communities.” The home ownership rate in Canada is 70%, thanks to historically low rates and an epic mountain of mortgage debt. The Conservatives have now pledged to push that to an unprecedented 72.5%.

Why? A party backgrounder lays that to rest. This is not so much about families, but trying to rescue the economy. “This target would support residential construction and local job creation. Nearly half a million Canadians are employed directly in the residential construction industry, a sector that largely employs local workers and contracts with small and local businesses. Expenditures in this sector are more than $100 billion per year and account for more than 6% of Canada’s GDP.”

The condo economy – encouraging more family debt and further inflating housing –   has blown up economies in the US, Ireland, Spain, across Europe and now threatens China. Mr. Harper wants 700,000 more households to buy real estate, pushing them to invest in assets which have never been more costly, at a time when interest rates are at low tide and posed to ascend.

He’s trying to out-Bush the Yankee president with a 40% increase in the amount people can suck out of their retirement funds to buy property; a permanent home renovation, get-a-hot-tub, tax credit; permission from CMHC to allow fatter mortgages for people with rental suites; and, in a sop to the xenophobes, a census of foreign buyers. Of course, the others guys aren’t much better. The Libs would allow people to dip into RRSPs to buy real estate with each live event, repeatedly, while the Dippers will give amateur landlords capital gains tax relief.

But, still, 72.5% is off the charts. A new benchmark for excess. And nobody should be foggy about the potential outcome.

Just this week we learned people have been gorging on loans like this was the Last Supper. New monthly mortgage debt is now increasing at the rate of 7.5% on a year/year basis, and already stands at more than $1.2 trillion – having doubled since the Tories came to power. Borrowing is the highest it’s been in almost three years, while the savings rate has declined and 51% of Canadians report they’re already living paycheque-to-paycheque, saying they couldn’t survive missing a single one. Is there any other government in the world so actively encouraging people into a one-asset strategy amid record debt and bubble prices?

Well, there used to be. That turned out well.

The homebuilders, framers, realtors, mortgage lenders, plumbers, developers and especially the bankers want this. Given the highly-conclusive but massively-maligned GreaterFool poll last week, it appears this is exactly what we’re going to get. Thus, we can all expect a systemic rise in real estate risk – Canadians thinking they can be safe and secure selling each other castles, on borrowed money and time.

I wonder. Has that ever worked before? Anywhere?

267 comments ↓

#1 Editrix on 09.29.15 at 4:37 pm

Homeownership is a way to stifle labour unrest. If you’ve got a mortgage, you’re not going to get too uppity and risk losing your job.

#2 Mark on 09.29.15 at 4:39 pm

The Tories obviously hate landlords (who would see their property values and rental income prospects damaged by such high ownership rates). The Tories obviously hate (big) business which sees investment capital siphoned off and put towards the housing sector. The Tories obviously hate cash savers who will probably see interest rates in the negative territory once this all blows up.

I can’t see why anyone would support them. And Trudeau is actually talking some sense these days, especially with his reference to a Mintz evidence-based study of small business taxation. Or the recent announcement of a $900M innovation fund for a sector of Canada’s economy which has faced an extremely high cost of capital in the wake of the tech industry collapse over a decade ago.

The Dippers probably aren’t trustworthy and bring a lot of baggage with them with their connections to organized labour. So is there really much of a choice in this election on who to vote for?

#3 Sheane Wallace on 09.29.15 at 4:40 pm

Mr. H. will make it work.

If it does not work he will redefine the meaning of ‘work’. It is just a single word, after all.

Promising a bridge without a river, but don’t worry, he will dig up a river as a bonus.

#4 Sheane Wallace on 09.29.15 at 4:41 pm

#1 Editrix

You mean a form of enslavement? What if there are no jobs to support the mortgages (I think we have far passed that point)

#5 Boombust on 09.29.15 at 4:42 pm

What is also worth “noting” about Harper is that the man claims to be an “economist” by profession.

So, he should know what his policies re: housing will eventually lead to.

However, being the psychopath that he is, a “world of hurt” is something he might enjoy seeing.

#6 fncenerd on 09.29.15 at 4:44 pm

This is exactly why I’m moving to the United States within the month (on election day actually). For the same job I do in BC I will be paid twice as much (after tax), and with the dollar where it is I will earn another 35% on top of that. I’m 25, zero debt, 150k in a diversified portfolio.

Plan is spend 2-4 years in the US putting away 35-40k (US) a year, converting back to CAD would be ~47k Canadian. If I stay two years that will leave me with 250k, four I’ll have closer to 400k.

At that point hopefully the housing market will have corrected in Canada and I’ll be able to either buy a reasonable place in cash (assuming rates return to historic norms), or leave the money in the market and know that when rates do rise I can tell the bank to “kiss my assets”.

Worst case scenario the housing market in Canada will still be crazy and I’ll be able to buy a place in the US. (In my opinion Seattle’s housing market is overvalued again, apparently it is supposed to cool off within a couple of years. Even “crazy” Seattle pricing is better than what you would pay in Vancouver.)

Any thoughts Garth?

#7 gladiator on 09.29.15 at 4:51 pm

As I’ve posted this before, please forgive me my posting it again: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Canada
Scroll to Key Industries and see that “Real estate and rental and leasing” is the largest industry in our economy.
Crazy!

By the way, I am not sure the Cons’ plan will work, as an acquaintance of mine – a really skilled carpenter told me about 2 months ago that the commercial RE development in the GTA is on the ropes, so he switched to residential and even this one is slowing down significantly.

#8 Bottoms_Up on 09.29.15 at 4:57 pm

#179 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09.29.15 at 3:02 pm
————————————–
Did Germany revoke Helmut’s german citizenship? Was the Canadian terrorist a first OR second generation Canadian?

If you’re born here, you are Canadian no matter what you do. If you’re invited here that could be a different matter altogether.

#9 Dan on 09.29.15 at 4:57 pm

So are you going to un-endorse him? Has he pushed too far?

I have endorsed no one. — Garth

#10 Ralph Cramdown on 09.29.15 at 4:57 pm

‘None of the measures announced Tuesday are new. They involve a mix of tax incentives and savings loopholes, buttressed by a pledge to collect data on foreign home ownership and to take “concrete action” against “foreign non-resident real estate speculation.” […] A sign advertising homes in the subdivision Harper appeared at Tuesday listed a price of over $880,000’

#11 Bottoms_Up on 09.29.15 at 4:59 pm

#6 fncenerd on 09.29.15 at 4:44 pm
———————–
Some Canadians end up back in Canada simply because they identify better with our values.

#12 Mark on 09.29.15 at 5:01 pm

“By the way, I am not sure the Cons’ plan will work, as an acquaintance of mine – a really skilled carpenter told me about 2 months ago that the commercial RE development in the GTA is on the ropes, so he switched to residential and even this one is slowing down significantly.”

Of course, no surprise given the falling prices in the GTA and everywhere else in Canada. The government basically threw everything but the kitchen sink at the RE market, including $900B of subprime loan guarantees through the CMHC. And could only achieve a 70% rate. The only reasonable way to get higher than that is likely to crash the market altogether, such that, housing becomes incredibly cheap.

I’m not sure many Harpers’ supporters, which are heavily in the transactional RE sector, really understand the true implications of his campaign ‘pledge’.

#13 Freedom First on 09.29.15 at 5:05 pm

A Politicians goal is to get elected. Except for people like Garth, who, unfortunately, are in the minority.

A fool and his money are soon parted.

Debt is not wealth.

After every Real Estate crash I read about the smart rich buying up 10-20-100 Properties at a time. During every Property Bubble I read about the Herd mortgaging to their truck nutz to get in.

I buy low and sell high. I know I am right when I have bought Properties because people asked me: why are you buying now? houses aren’t worth anything. Fact.

#14 gladiator on 09.29.15 at 5:11 pm

@11 Bottoms_Up:

Having spent 4 years in the US and now in Canada for 10 years, I could say that the values are pretty much the same: family, friends, a good beer, a good job, need money for this and that and so on.

However, if one is biased to see only negatives in the country of residence – one will always find them.
I know a Pole who went back to Poland just because he was looking at all the bad things in Canada and could not get over that. He is happy now.

#15 lol on 09.29.15 at 5:12 pm

What better way to get more people into housing than to loosen the reins on CMHC. How about more Zero down and 40 year amortizations on the comeback. I am sure the finance minister won’t mind. It seems people will get into a mortgage at any cost.

#16 Nora Lenderby on 09.29.15 at 5:13 pm

#1 Editrix on 09.29.15 at 4:37 pm
Homeownership is a way to stifle labour unrest. If you’ve got a mortgage, you’re not going to get too uppity and risk losing your job.

I think you’re right. It perhaps also pushes mortgage owners into much a more risk-averse and conservative mindset. At least for now.

#17 Bottoms_Up on 09.29.15 at 5:14 pm

Ok, Mark at #159 must have meant a 6 pack of beer for $12. Or, he got the country wrong. Or, he just revealed he’s a 14 year old boy blogging from his mother’s basement, and came across beer pricing from the 1960s. Lol

#153 Sheane Wallace on 09.29.15 at 12:35 pm
——————————–
Let’s get a few things straight:

Fluoride in water-this is studied intensely by top doctors and scientists in Canada. There are no ill efdects from current levels of drinking water fluoridation.

Organic food-check the definition of what makes something organic, and i can assure you there are no guarantees of higher quality or increased safety.

GMO foods-DNA has been manipulated in foods since forever. Cross-breeding anything creates a “gmo”. Itvis not a big scary black hole. It’s biology, and changes in DNA are very normal. Modifying something to make it drought or pest resistant, while retaining nutrition and safety, is the key.

#18 FormerSaskie on 09.29.15 at 5:17 pm

Curious, can anyone answer… has Canada, in it’s history gone off of the rails over one sector/asset as the Conservatives are now with housing?

#19 pinstripe on 09.29.15 at 5:18 pm

The coffee talk this morning continued on a more heated note about the failure of harpo and the zirp policy.

The geezers in the area are ranchers, farmers, and small business people. Saving, staying out of debt, but now are punished like never before with the harpo policies.

furthermore, with the dollar at 75 cent mark any new equipment purchase is at the US price.

harpo policies are designed to reward debt and punish saving. The locals are saying Enough is ENOUGH.

The advance polls open Oct 9. Many will be there one half hour before the doors open. The choice is ABC.

#20 Mf on 09.29.15 at 5:19 pm

Here’s a story for the blog dogs. A family member is in his mid 80’s and is about to be moved to a nursing home. He has lost most mental and physical faculties and has no one else. My parents have been made responsible for his finances. To their astonishment, even though he owns a long time paid off 1.2 million dollar house in Toronto, he is actually in debt and can barely afford to feed himself.

The reason: he was approached by a realtor who manipulated him into buying a house in Scarborough. This realtor scum said he would first oversee a renovation because he has “friends in the business”, and then he would stage the place and sell for a “large profit”.

Well, that was two years ago and the supposed renovations have not even started. The house is in complete disarray and my relative continues to pay a mortgage and property tax on this thing!! My parents are trying to figure out who in the world would give a mortgage to an 80 year old. So far they are totally stumped. They will soon learn about our seedy mortgage industry for sure. This loser realtor received his commission, of course.

This RE industry is full of scum at every stop. From agents to brokers to the insurance groups Etc. And to think they make up such a large part of our gdp. Wow we are way worse off than the US pre housing collapse.

Mf

#21 Barry in Pickering on 09.29.15 at 5:25 pm

Garth: But, still, 72.5% is off the charts. A new benchmark for excess.
===================================================================================
Nope, not off the charts, nor a benchmark for excess. 72.5% home ownership is in the “middle of the pack” Here’s a full list by country of home ownership. Canada is 31st of 45. For example, Norway higher at 83.5%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_home_ownership_rate

Romania? Lithuania? China – where rental accommodation essentially doesn’t exist? Like I said, off the chart. — Garth

#22 Bytor the Snow Dog on 09.29.15 at 5:26 pm

@#1 Editrix- Absolfugginlutely right.

@Garth- You haven’t directly endorsed anyone, but I think it’s pretty obvious to most of us who you support.

#23 JSS on 09.29.15 at 5:26 pm

what will be the impact on Canadian banks if/when this whole deck of house cards falls apart?

#24 Mark on 09.29.15 at 5:27 pm

“Ok, Mark at #159 must have meant a 6 pack of beer for $12. Or, he got the country wrong.”

Pre-tax you silly guy. Of course taxes bring it up to $2/can. Alcohol taxes in Canada are crazy (but since I don’t drink much, I’d rather alcohol be taxed than the revenue come from income tax).

#25 Mf on 09.29.15 at 5:30 pm

8 Bottoms_Up on 09.29.15 at 4:57 pm

Dicey legal and moral question. Should be handled on an individual basis. If you are a convicted murderer, or you are convicted of attempting to carry out murder, you should be in jail regardless.

Tired story, but Canadians like Khadr who are murderers and are only using our citizenship for convenience and protection need to be extradited to face trial where they are being sought for example.

Mf

#26 Victoria Real Eatate Update on 09.29.15 at 5:33 pm

Housing bubbles always deflate and have a long lasting negative effect on the economy and household finances of families. Recent examples of countries where this has happened include the US, Ireland, Spain, Greece, Iceland, Japan… and so on.

There is no example of a country with a housing bubble where the bubble deflated in a safe, controlled, soft landing manner.

All housing bubbles deflate in such a way that there is widespread negative economic effects stemming from falling house prices. It wasn’t just a US phenomenon like many realtors want you to think and it doesn’t just last for a year or two before prices head higher again. It’s alway much worse than that.

Is there a country in the world with looser mortgage lending standards than in Canada. It’s doubtful.

Any action to further loosen lending standards will result in an even deeper future price correction and a Canadian economy that is even less able than it is now to function without the abnormally high contributions from housing related industries and today’s emergency interest rates.

#27 Pete on 09.29.15 at 5:41 pm

#6 fncenerd
Make sure you arrange everything correctly concerning not remaining a resident of Canada or the Canadians will be taxing you on your US earnings as if you were still living here.

#28 Ralph Cramdown on 09.29.15 at 5:43 pm

“has Canada, in it’s history gone off of the rails over one sector/asset as the Conservatives are now with housing?”

Like when Nortel’s market cap ($398 billion) was more than 50% of Canada’s GDP ($739 billion) in 2000?

#29 Doug in London on 09.29.15 at 5:46 pm

It just goes to show you that the only thing humankind learns from history is that we learn nothing from history.

How does home ownership provide Canadian families with financial stability and strengthen our communities? How does being deeply indebted buying a house at grossly inflated prices provide financial stability? How does home ownership strengthen communities? Aren’t renters also part of the community? It wasn’t that long ago the Conservatives were babbling about how important labour mobility is. What ever happened to that idea? Aren’t renters more mobile, so they can relocate to fill jobs? It’s going to be interesting to see what happens when this Ponzi scheme eventually collapses.

#30 Leo Trollstoy on 09.29.15 at 5:48 pm

We haven’t seen nuthin’ yet boys and girls! As Toronto real estate prices continue to ratchet higher once the PC get into power it’ll be like pouring gasoline on this fire!

Crazy.

And if people think that retail prices have gotten worse over the last year, wait till next year! Ouch!

#31 Mocha on 09.29.15 at 5:57 pm

Oh, how I do love to take your bait:

“…in a sop to the xenophobes, a census of foreign buyers…”

So now merely wanting to collect data is xenophobic, or is this, in your imagination, some precedent to a great anti-foreigner movement in this country? None of the main parties would ever even remotely support those kinds of policies. It’s really just about squeezing some extra money out of foreigners.

If you consider regulating foreign ownership of real estate to be xenophobic, many countries in the world are xenophobic by your definition, including many who are granted unlimited access to our residential market but themselves either heavily restrict or even deny Canadians the privilege of owning in their countries. Do you support reciprocity between nations on such policies? I do.

I believe that it was one of the commenters in this very block

#32 Mocha on 09.29.15 at 5:59 pm

… In this very blog who posted the stats that Canada is the only country in the most popular countries for foreign residential real estate investment with no regulation whatsoever.

#33 Sheane Wallace on 09.29.15 at 6:00 pm

#17 Bottoms_Up
—————————
Cross breading is not GMO.
https://gmoanswers.com/ask/please-explain-difference-between-gmo-and-cross-breeding-or-cross-pollination-and-how-prevalent
——————————
Organic food-check the definition of what makes something organic, and i can assure you there are no guarantees of higher quality or increased safety.

USDA organic:
http://www.ams.usda.gov/services/organic-certification
—————————

fluoride in the water (from a medical doctor):

http://fluoridealert.org/articles/50-reasons/
——————————–

GMO and cancer:
http://www.collective-evolution.com/2014/07/15/new-study-links-gmos-to-cancer-liverkidney-damage-severe-hormonal-disruption/

n November 2012, the Journal of Food and Chemical Toxicology published a paper titled Long Term Toxicity of Roundup Herbicide and a Roundup-Tolerant genetically modified maize by Gilles-Eric Seralini and his team of researchers at France’s Caen University. (source) It was a very significant study that made a lot of noise worldwide, the first of its kind under controlled conditions that examined the possible effects of a GMO maize diet treated with Monsanto’s Roundup Herbicide.

http://www.morningticker.com/2015/08/possible-cancer-causing-herbicide-being-used-on-gmo-crops/

#34 Smoking Man on 09.29.15 at 6:01 pm

#23 JSS on 09.29.15 at 5:26 pm
what will be the impact on Canadian banks if/when this whole deck of house cards falls apart?
……

Don’t assume if and when a housing correction happens the herd will capitulate and take a loss. They would rather eat dirt.

And remember with many more years of zero rates, stuff might actually get paid off.

What I see is those that can’t buy, will leave town and make room for those that can.

#35 Sheane Wallace on 09.29.15 at 6:09 pm

#30 Smoking Man

Outstanding and ‘insured’ mortgages are actually increasing consistently, so they are not being paid off.
————————-
#26 Victoria Real Eatate Update

Is there a country in the world with looser mortgage lending standards than in Canada. It’s doubtful.

No, there isn’t such country. Ireland is nothing compared to us. The CMHC ‘insurance; is fraudulent from actuary’s perspective and will destroy the whole economy, the CAD and all savings.

Not that the fuhrer cares. He is an ‘economist’ after all.

#36 S.Bby on 09.29.15 at 6:15 pm

Housing. There is no plan “B”.

#37 Nagraj on 09.29.15 at 6:18 pm

Acshully the real reason Shell has given up on Arctic drilling (a none-too-bright idea to begin with) is the YETI.
The YETI are a kind of Arctic SASQUATCH. (The YETI originated in the Himalayas but some of ’em migrated to Novaya Zemlya and thence swam to the Aleutians.) (In terms of genus they are closely related to Norwegian TROLLS.)
Repeated encounters with YETI freaked out the Shell guys. “OMG! It’s a YETI! Run! Run!”

Glencore’s – strange – indebtedness isn’t YETI-related but a function of extreme discontent among those EARTH ELEMENTALS known as MOUNTAIN DWORFS. (The other ELEMENTALS are SALAMANDERS, fire; ARIELS, wind; and I forget the rest. You can look it up.) Like the YETI, the MOUNTAIN DWORFS like things very quiet. Today’s pathetic dead liar bounce in Glencore notwithstanding, the DWORFS is gonna wreck Glencore. You can be sure of that.

Which gits us to MARTIANS and HARPER. The little green peoplets on Mars are worried that once Canada is completely covered with nice houses and happy (if impecunious) homeowners, HARPER (a creature of as yet undetermined genus) will invent very exciting tax breaks to encourage suburbanization on their tomato-like planet.

And why not? Harper does believe his Canada ought to play a greater role in the universe. Harper, Prime Minister and Prime Martian. Sounds good, eh?

Speaking of genus, the species catalogued as FCC (Fiscally conservative Canadians) is highly endangered, practically extinct. If you meet somebody nowadays who’s tearing their hair out by the roots and babbling incoherently, it’s most likely an FCC.

#38 I'm stupid on 09.29.15 at 6:18 pm

Has anyone ever wondered why the casino uses chips instead of real money? It’s because people gamble more when they see a plastic chip. It’s the same as taking a loan or paying with a credit card instead of real cash, if you bought a home with a million in cash I bet you would think twice.

#39 JSS on 09.29.15 at 6:21 pm

Why buy a house that eats your money, when you can buy dividend growth common shares.

—-

Fortis(TSE:FTS): 2015 dividend increased to $0.375 per share from $0.34 per share – 10.3% increase in quarterly dividend equivalent to annualized dividend of $1.50.

Annual dividend per common share growth through 2020 targeted at 6%

http://www.stockhouse.com/news/press-releases/2015/09/29/fortis-announces-fourth-quarter-dividends#kywpHfZ6p8Q2xf5B.99

#40 Adam on 09.29.15 at 6:22 pm

It’s fun watching you rationalize how different the cons versus the libs & dippers views are towards real estate in this country. “They aren’t much better..” proceeding to list reasons that pale in comparison to Harpers promises.

Actually when it comes to dealing with all-important housing policy and personal debt levels, nobody impresses me. I hope that has come across. — Garth

#41 Always Play Blackjack on 09.29.15 at 6:25 pm

#38 I’m stupid

I was a casino operator for 12 years. While there is the side-benefit of what you’re saying, the reasons for using chips are it’s easier to watch for theft, dealers and players are able to move faster increasing hands per hour and its easier to count and reconcile tables quickly. At some of our mid to higher end tables we allowed cash since some players preferred the feel of holding real money.

#42 Londoner on 09.29.15 at 6:27 pm

Had a few too many tonight. Millennial’s don’t come to London – they will turn you into a lush. Btw, Garth is wrong about rates. Carry on…

#43 fill in the blanks Garth... on 09.29.15 at 6:28 pm

So who should we vote for?

You said NDP principles are great, just not the party should be in power.

You said Justin and his party dropped the ball on its policy, appearing to go more left than the NDP.

And Harper, well, we all know the history. And now this blog entry. Vote Harper = short term more real-estate appreciate and greater systemic risk, and that probably equals more low interest rates, punishing savers and investors.

And you said vote for something, i.e. representation – so you can’t throw away a vote to the Greens or some other dinky party.

I said neither statement about the NDP or the Liberals. Find the best candidate. Vote for him or her. — Garth

#44 Senator of drunken second thoughts on 09.29.15 at 6:28 pm

Unfortunately it’s far from the first time we have watched a policy fail elsewhere and then enact the same thing here.

#45 Smoking Man on 09.29.15 at 6:30 pm

You won’t see this on MSM

https://youtu.be/VbZDyr2LkdI

Holy Crap Tylenol, care to comment.

#46 Bob The Builder on 09.29.15 at 6:31 pm

And yet the CPC is your party of choice to continue to lead Canada.

Who cares if the entire economy implodes on debt? As long as those $10K/yr TSFAs for the rich don’t get reduced. That’s what matters in the big picture – right?

#47 Senator of drunken second thoughts on 09.29.15 at 6:34 pm

Funny I just remembered that earlier in this same election cycle Mulcair actually did remark at least once that he didn’t think this housing market was going to turn out so great. He hasn’t made mention of it again though so maybe pollsters that?

#48 jess on 09.29.15 at 6:35 pm

The low failure rate shows that the ‘Drive Clean’ program isn’t necessary. Therefore, an “illegal tax,” they declared.
==================
skeletons of wood and cement surrounded by rolling grasslands, with too few residents who can afford them.
“We are overbuilt,”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-29/man-camp-exodus-spurs-real-estate-crisis-across-u-s-shale-towns

#49 saskatoon on 09.29.15 at 6:36 pm

#17 Bottoms_Up

1. of course there are doctors/scientists against forcibly medicating people with NaF through the public water supply; this is the reason (in part) why many communities around the world have rejected NaF: http://fluoridealert.org/content/communities/

2. of course there is a difference between organic foods and conventional foods: many more harmful chemicals are used in the production of conventionally-grown food…these chemicals are not just on the surface, but are often absorbed. also, many gmos contain pesticides in their OWN DNA–no need for hardcore spraying. you eat this altered DNA…and your own DNA can, in turn, become modified, producing pesticides within your own gut.

if you can’t understand these things…well…you’ve probably ingested too much NaF.

that sucks.

#50 Paul on 09.29.15 at 6:39 pm

#44 Bob The Builder on 09.29.15 at 6:31 pm

And yet the CPC is your party of choice to continue to lead Canada.

Who cares if the entire economy implodes on debt? As long as those $10K/yr TSFAs for the rich don’t get reduced. That’s what matters in the big picture – right
———————————————————-
If you think 10k a year ,that is money that tax has been paid tucked away for retirement if for the RICH you have a bigger problem then a tsfa.

#51 jess on 09.29.15 at 6:40 pm

compression ?

http://www.maplefinancial.com/toronto_branch/index.htm
OSFI B-20 Mortgage Disclosure

Insured Residential Mortgages
As of June 30, 2015

By Geographical Location:

#52 Lea on 09.29.15 at 6:41 pm

#37 Nagraj

Where does the chupacabra fit in?

#26 Victoria Real Eatate Update

Spot on. My neighbors in Los Angeles held onto their house after the crash and recently sold at less than what they paid over 7 years ago. “Way worse” indeed.

#53 prairieboy43 on 09.29.15 at 6:42 pm

Completed another successful alberta hunt. Love the west.
However, business doors closing, contractors equipment in yards all over the North. Equipment going to auction. Every street has 2-3 listings. Big hospital unfinished. Who will work here? Should have refurbishished old hospital for $25 million. However building $375 million hospital in the middle of nowhere? AB(Canada), is in for a world of pain.
PB43

#54 JV on 09.29.15 at 6:43 pm

Doom and gloom. Canada is one of the best places in the world to live. Most people enjoy the pride of owning your own home. Do not give your money to your landlord who can kick you out at anytime.

#55 zee on 09.29.15 at 6:46 pm

I said this many times in the past and just mentioned it yesterday, Canadian govt will not let housing crash. They will continue to support it since this is all we have here, now that oil has crashed.

It is different here and it will work out here.

#56 MSM-Free Zone on 09.29.15 at 6:47 pm

One of the best, most insightful, logical, accurate, and surprisingly non-partisan posts I’ve ever read here.

Definitely a keeper for future reference.

#57 Catalyst on 09.29.15 at 6:50 pm

The question is, how does he plan to do it.

To me the answer is obvious:
-low(er) rates for longer
-longer amortizations coming back
-increased CMHC thresholds

Scary stuff.

Soon (or maybe already is) the housing related industries have become so large that to campaign against them would lose too many votes so its better to promise them goodies despite whats best for the country.

#58 Md on 09.29.15 at 6:53 pm

I’m a framer. Been reading this blog since 08′. I agree with Garth on the state of RE, but a as my job is so closely tied to housing I don’t mind the home ownership going rate going up. More work for me ! !

#59 Bby604 on 09.29.15 at 6:57 pm

Why don’t they just bring back the zero down 40 year and stop messing around. Jim f would be turning In His grave. What incompetence by our “leaders”

#60 Linda on 09.29.15 at 6:59 pm

This is reckless and appalling economic policy.

Harper and his entitled pals in the real estate economy plan to go binge drinking, on the public dime, then climb into their well-protected SUVS and race down the road, oblivious to how many middle class families they will crash into, killing them.

Unlike other tragedies, a vote may go a long way towards stopping this one.

#61 Greg Thompson on 09.29.15 at 7:17 pm

The problem is not real estate or owning a primary residence but the high debt to service it.

Central banks, bankers, lenders, speculators, government, tax assessors etc. all have artificially made this a big sham.

Real estate prices should go up with inflation and maybe 2% more a year. Anything more than that is all overpricing and overvaluation.

A $200,000 home in say Toronto 20 years ago should cost at most $400,000 and that is being generous. These $600,000 to $1,000,000 homes are at least $275,000 to $475,000 overvalued.

There should be a market correction every 6 to 7 years. to

#62 roial1 on 09.29.15 at 7:20 pm

#17 Bottoms_Up on 09.29.15 at 5:14 pm

GMO foods-DNA has been manipulated in foods since forever. Cross-breeding anything creates a “gmo”. Itvis not a big scary black hole. It’s biology, and changes in DNA are very normal. Modifying something to make it drought or pest resistant, while retaining nutrition and safety, is the key.

————————————————————-

What do you call it when the purpose is ONLY to make the plant resistant to “round-up” a herbicide.

This is what Monsanto is doing to canola in Canada so as to be able to use more of their plant poison. Not to make a better plant.

#63 TurnerNation on 09.29.15 at 7:24 pm

Today’s Economic Action Plan update.

Hudson’s Bay to cut 265 head office staff
TransAlta slashing 239 jobs in cost-cutting move

They will come for you in your bedrooms and take your job away!

#64 WillD on 09.29.15 at 7:24 pm

#45 SM
You won’t see this on MSM

https://youtu.be/VbZDyr2LkdI

Holy Crap Tylenol, care to comment.

Totally agree…although it also seems that Putin has his own imperialist objectives.

On another note, health care has not really become a talking point in this election but if it concerns you, then vote anyone but Trudeau. The way he has joined forces with Wynne and the way the Ontario liberals have decimated health care in Ontario is disturbing.

#65 Nerf Hurder on 09.29.15 at 7:26 pm

Good read:
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/dd7ac2f2-472d-11e5-af2f-4d6e0e5eda22.html#axzz3nAkYeHEv

#66 EB on 09.29.15 at 7:27 pm

#49 saskatoon on 09.29.15 at 6:36 pm – “you eat this altered DNA…and your own DNA can, in turn, become modified, producing pesticides within your own gut.”

DNA does not work that way unless you’re a single-celled organism.

#67 Slow Canada on 09.29.15 at 7:28 pm

Garth, I’m sorry, but your defense of “the others guys aren’t much better” is pretty lame. This blog’s entire reason for being is to combat the over-inflated housing market. Harper is the one stoking it with the most gusto, and you are still tilting towards him. Sometimes an election is about choosing the least-bad option. I find your stance baffling, disappointing, and frankly dangerous. I ask you to please re-consider.

Reconsider being objective and analytical so I can turn into a partisan? Nah, but thanks. — Garth

#68 bubu on 09.29.15 at 7:39 pm

Time to leave Canada….. only in communism you find so many “home owners”…

#69 Form Man on 09.29.15 at 7:40 pm

#23 JSS and #34 SM

Canada’s mainstream banks do not hold on to dodgy mortgages. They have been sold off to mutual funds…………….

#70 westcdn on 09.29.15 at 7:40 pm

SM – I am wrong a lot of times. I speak too many times from my heart. It is my best learning tool.

#71 MSM-Free Zone on 09.29.15 at 7:42 pm

#58 Md on 09.29.15 at 6:53 pm
“….I agree with Garth on the state of RE, but a as my job is so closely tied to housing I don’t mind the home ownership going rate going up. More work for me ! !….”
_________________________

You’re not trying to become the poster boy for everything that’s wrong with world, are you?

#72 Bytor the Snow Dog on 09.29.15 at 7:46 pm

@Smoking Man- I totally agree with what Putin said.

No one asked the US to be the World’s Policeman. They just do it for the same reason a dog licks itself….because they can.

And don’t gimme any crap about this being US hate. Many people in the US itself feel the same way.

#73 Kaganovich on 09.29.15 at 7:48 pm

It would be alright if we were just building passivhaus structures, but alas, we will be misallocating more capital in the form of poorly insulated shacks.

#74 conan on 09.29.15 at 7:51 pm

#45 Smoking Man on 09.29.15 at 6:30 pm

Scary isn’t it ? The USA seems to be on a losing mission and will kick over the chess board rather then admit they screwed the world over.

Putin is the only one making sense.

Let the flaming begin.

#75 Freedom First on 09.29.15 at 7:52 pm

#38 I’m stupid

Smart comment. Yes, people are easy to fool, world wide. Looking at Canadians debt levels, it is not different here. Fact. Canadians are proving themselves to be the greatest fools. Trust me.

#76 Aggregator on 09.29.15 at 7:56 pm

You dawgs still here waiting for a crash?

#77 Tony on 09.29.15 at 7:59 pm

Re: #6 fncenerd on 09.29.15 at 4:44 pm

In four years time the unemployment rate in Canada should be at least ten percent so the chances on a job in your vocation even being available is questionable. Stay in America.

#78 Bcweatherman on 09.29.15 at 7:59 pm

Garth, given what you say today, how can you possibly support these guys. They’re effectively sacrificing “moist property virgins” to keep themselves in power. ABH. Anybody but Harper. Either of the other 2 parties has to have at least a remaining shred of honesty. I trust the NDs the most. (Greens aside)

#79 bigtown on 09.29.15 at 8:02 pm

The commodity story surely can take the wind out of your Canadian sales like a Newfoundland spring morning. So what else does our ever growing diverse tolerant ex-British colony have up our sleve? Well there is Toronto and Vancouver and the big housing boom and the immigrant sector should keep us in enough cash until China is on the mend…maybe.

One thing we can be sure ….we always pay our bonds so that will keep a bid under the loonie. God Bless. I love you kids.

#80 Rainmaker on 09.29.15 at 8:04 pm

Post #21 Barry in Pickering

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_home_ownership_rate

Interesting to see that a powerhouse economy like Germany is at a home ownership rate of 53.5%. Is there something for all of us and our Leader’s to learn from Germany? We may end up there or at least heading in that direction one day – just maybe not by plan.

#81 Harry on 09.29.15 at 8:05 pm

Help defeat Harper

http://we.leadnow.ca/str_vancouver_granville

#82 pwn3d on 09.29.15 at 8:07 pm

Actually when it comes to dealing with all-important housing policy and personal debt levels, nobody impresses me. I hope that has come across. — Garth
————–
It comes across to rational people, but to the frothing activists who post here anything but a declaration that Harper is Satan and Canada is a hell hole means you’re a neoconbot.

What isn’t coming across is why you continue to let that maroon Mark post here. He’s offending anyone with an IQ higher than 40.

#83 Tony on 09.29.15 at 8:09 pm

Re: #58 Md on 09.29.15 at 6:53 pm

The home ownership rate in Canada will only fall. As prices collapse the cost of rent will fall sharply meaning more renters and smart fence sitters who can properly access things will rent for maybe 10 to 20 years to ride out the long sideways movement in prices after the “great” initial crash. Also factor in much higher property taxes (well above the inflation rate) as Canada goes broke in the future. Just another reason for the fall in home ownership.

#84 Some Other Mark on 09.29.15 at 8:09 pm

#6 fncenerd – If you’re in the U.S, be there on a work visa. Don’t get a green card or become a citizen and don’t buy property there. If you do any of the above, you’re in for a lifetime of tax hell trying to satisfy two different tax systems. Once the U.S. considers you a “U.S. person,” you are expected to report your finances to the U.S. forever even if you move back to Canada and preparing tax returns and investing become costly nightmares.

#85 Daisy Mae on 09.29.15 at 8:11 pm

“I said neither statement about the NDP or the Liberals. Find the best candidate. Vote for him or her. — Garth”

***************

The candidates may espouse this or that…but in the final analysis they’ll tow the party line.

I didn’t. — Garth

#86 tundra pete on 09.29.15 at 8:13 pm

Many politicians are like used car salespersons. They will tell you whatever they think you want to hear. Say one story and do another. This Harper character is night sweating. He honestly does not know wether he will have a job in a few weeks. He is going to bs any one who will listen.

People are stupid. What can you say. Harper yaps something and people buy it hook, line and sinker. It is true you can’t fix stupid. It is also a shame that being stupid doesn’t hurt. Harper is not stupid though. I pray extra each night that the Cons get tossed out on voting day.

#87 JSS on 09.29.15 at 8:16 pm

Transalta just cut 239 head office jobs in Calgary…

http://Www.calgaryherald.com

#88 BG on 09.29.15 at 8:17 pm

Do you still think the Conservative are the lesser Evil now?

#89 Chris on 09.29.15 at 8:22 pm

Harper would do anything or say anything to win. That is really cynical. What would F think about this if he was alive. At least F had integrity.

#90 Retired Boomer - WI on 09.29.15 at 8:26 pm

Bush is an idiot. I actually MADE money on, and during the so called “housing crisis” because I saw it was essentially a “debt crisis” at hand.

Today, in the U.S. I view it a tad differently. I see an equity over-valuation crisis at hand. Sensing that, I have lightened up a whole lot on equities, except for healthcare (geezers are aging), and Utilities as there is not yet an alternate, and consumer staples as people still eat, and wipe their behinds.

All the rest can go down deeply in value in a minute!

Who say I am right? Nobody I know. I just trust my rather ample gut. Still hold oils, and dividend paying equities in commodities. Somebody’s gonna need a new cell phone with copper someday… an internal combustion is here for a while despite our wishes.

Harper, in the Bush mode is an idiot, too. Maybe a better grade of idiot, I’ll grant that, but basing Canada’s future on housing is only as good as the low mortgage rate. Lift those, and a large quadrant will be hooped. Not my problem, thanks. Never overbought the home. 1300 square feet is plenty for us. I don’t need to impress anybody but, my wife, and she don’t like circuses.

So, despite the incredibly obvious people still do silly tricks to try to satisfy themselves, or others.

Me, I’m happy with life just the dam way it sits for now.
Wonder what the place would look like should everybody be ‘satisfied.?’

#91 Tony on 09.29.15 at 8:32 pm

Re: #23 JSS on 09.29.15 at 5:26 pm

Credit will dry up wholesale, that is both residential and commercial real estate as well as businesses and individuals. It won’t be pretty.

#92 Randy Randerson on 09.29.15 at 8:36 pm

Wage slaves only know one thing, and that’s to keep their heads down at work, plugging away whilst their masters slowly strip off their freedom. One sure way is to tie them down with a huge mortgage. The fear of losing the home, losing face and respect from neighbors and family, and losing the “Provider” facade make wage slaves stay with a job that slowly eats them alive. When their souls are completely crushed, the mass of men lead lives of quiet desperation.

#93 Bottoms_Up on 09.29.15 at 8:37 pm

It’s easy enough to find one kooky expert turned doomer to say anything. Just check out “wheat belly” for that.

It’s quite another to have a report from an expert panel at health canada that has studied fluoridation and easily determined the exposure levels are safe.

Organic foods have not been proven to be of higher nutritional value. The definition of organic foods boils down to being grown in soil that hasn’t had pesticide use for 3 years. Has anyone ever heard of persistent chemicals? Fact of the matter is that we have an organisation that regulates pesticides and ensures they are used at safe levels. So spend more money on nothing of benefit if you wish.

Anyone that understands biology 101 knows that a gene can be easily changed, thus changing the amino acid sequence. So the protein that is produced (or no longer produced) is still a ‘natural’ substance as it all derives from nature. As long as a GMO is shown to be equally safe (no toxin is created) then it is for all intents and purposes the same as a non-gmo food.

All of this is easily findable on the internet.

#94 tundra pete on 09.29.15 at 8:42 pm

#17 bottoms_up

Enjoy your gmo food. Canada and the US are some of the only countries that allow this garbage to be sold. Most other countries have written laws against it being let in their countries. Any time you play with genetics is like a crap shoot. Never know what might happen especially down the road.

Fluoridation of water is carried out to keep people compliant and complacent kind of like you. You believe what you are being told. Big government is overseeing big industry that sells hydrofluorosilicic acid and they want to sell a lot of it. They will offer payments to regulators to ensure this happens.

You may also believe that World Trade Centre 7 fell down all by it’s lonesome and no other party was involved. This is good you are compliant the fluoride thingy is working.

#95 Renter's Revenge! on 09.29.15 at 8:43 pm

#39 JSS on 09.29.15 at 6:21 pm

“Why buy a house that eats your money, when you can buy dividend growth common shares.”

Fortis is about as sexy as stocks get, eh?

But seriously, imagine if you told everyone you know that you own 11,000 shares of FTS (about $400,000 worth) instead of a house, and that your dividends just increased from $14,960 to $16,500 a year.

80% of people would give you a blank stare.

Another 10% would accuse you of being a greedy rich person, and then change the topic to hockey or football.

The other 10% would thank you for the update and think “damn, why didn’t I buy more FTS in 2013?”

Thanks for the update, by the way.

You should be thankful that most Canadians are financial morons. If everyone thought Fortis was a good investment, it would be selling at 40x earnings, just like houses, and you’d have to wait for a crash to buy more.

#96 Scumop on 09.29.15 at 8:46 pm

Is Tuesday tinfoil hat night?

At least the Americans got to deduct their mortgage interest from taxes. That may have covered their losses, except so many bought much more house than they needed instead of investing the tax savings on a smaller place.

Here, you can stuff some $ in an RSP. Get taxed now on money you made to pay mortgage interest and later on get taxed on the money in your rsp. There are no winners in this game.

I want to start the Procrastinator Party. Since it will never get around to doing anything, it will cause the least damage of any political party in world history.

__ not jaded (much).

#97 Retired Boomer - WI on 09.29.15 at 8:47 pm

#17 Bottoms-up

$2 Beer is the NORMAL price here for a bottle or can at my favorite watering hole, $3 for a mixer. I mean a 12 oz not a ‘shortie’ They are 7 for $10 at the local pub. Even a bit less if you are buying a 6er, 12er, 18, 24, or 30.

So, no his prices are right on (these are US -Wisconsin prices where the beer tax has not been raised since 1969).

No wonder we are all tippers here…

#98 Washed Up Lawyer on 09.29.15 at 8:48 pm

I have an uncanny knack of spotting trends. 10 to 15 years too late.

Boy oh boy, if you are a young legal beagle specializing in “elder law”, you may be knee deep in alfalfa in the next decade or two. This few acres of snow we call a country is about to be infested with a bunch of aged boomer zombies driving poorly in a ’68 Dodge Polaris with a moose carcass strapped on the roof. They will need help and some of them have a lot of money.

#99 gladiator on 09.29.15 at 8:52 pm

@38 I’m stupid:

I agree, once the transaction is done and the real money have been spent on some substitute, it is much easier to spend/deplete that substitute, because the perception is that it is now somewhat free.
Example: I made some home made wine this fall, 20 liters of Chablis. I now enjoy a bit more wine than I usually do, because after paying 40 CAD for the juice, that transaction is history , but now I have some excellent stuff to enjoy “for free” and with not stinky chemicals.
Beauty!

#100 Smoking Man on 09.29.15 at 8:55 pm

#64 WillD on 09.29.15 at 7:24 pm
#45 SM
You won’t see this on MSM

https://youtu.be/VbZDyr2LkdI

Holy Crap Tylenol, care to comment.

Totally agree…although it also seems that Putin has his own imperialist objectives.

On another note, health care has not really become a talking point in this election but if it concerns you, then vote anyone but Trudeau. The way he has joined forces with Wynne and the way the Ontario liberals have decimated health care in Ontario is disturbing.
……

Get this, from our activist premier Wynee , free invetro fertilization to any woman, any age, any health status.

How is that even a health issue, when sick people can’t get life saving drugs..

Gay Men you disappoint me. if you had a set. It wouldn’t be LGBT should have been GLBT.

Know this, the Ls Hate all Men.. You’re no exception.
After they eat neanderthals like me, they’re coming for you.

That’s why I’m leaving town.

#101 R on 09.29.15 at 8:57 pm

Don’t worry, Joe Oliver is watching housing closely

#102 Retired Boomer - WI on 09.29.15 at 8:57 pm

#72 Bytor the snow dog.

You are quite correct.

This Amerikan citizen is very tired of seeing 54% of the US budget devoted to “defense purposes.” Such excess bullshit, if it were reduced to the threat level 22% would be huge!

#103 In the cold from Toronto on 09.29.15 at 8:57 pm

#21 Barry in Pickering:

Most of the countries with very high house ownership rates used to be a communist countries. Moving people in flats was one of the main ideas of Communists everywhere… it was all part of the way history was supposed to progress: from an agricultural society to an urban one.

Some of those buildings were much like the US Projects (but without the crime, as there were no drugs or guns in those countries). Just google “Russian communist apartment blocks” and take a look at those images; I am certain nobody in their right mind would like to live in such buildings.

I do not see how the list you presented adds anything to this discussion… Garth’s point is a valid one: in most things we resemble the US (with less drugs, fewer guns and nicer people); therefore it makes sense to learn from their history.

#104 gladiator on 09.29.15 at 9:07 pm

@93 Bottoms

I spent 2 weeks in Eastern Europe this summer and ate food grown by my parents: home-raised chickens, veggies and fruit from the garden etc and can attest that first, one needs a much smaller quantity of food to not feel hungry, and second, my wife and I felt much lighter after eating copious amounts of meat and other heavy stuff. Right after coming back to Canada we got back to our usual skin problems, stomach heaviness after having a small steak, oilier skin and hair etc. It sounds crazy and I apologize for such personal details, but this is what is happening.
My wife stopped eating meat because it is well-known that it’s full ofmantibiotics and hormones and she feels waaaay better. There is bad stuff in what we eat here. Too bad that authorities do not have more stringent standards for the food industry. After this summer, I am convinced that food heremis mostly tasteless nutritionless stuff crammed with crap that is not meant to enter our bodies.
At least we got a water filter that gets the sodium fluoride out. A Berkey. Garth, hope you won’t consider this as advertising. I do not sell them.

#105 Ralph Cramdown on 09.29.15 at 9:08 pm

#86 tundra pete — “This Harper character is night sweating. He honestly does not know wether he will have a job in a few weeks.”

There is ALWAYS a corner office in a Bay Street law firm available, at far higher hourly pay than the Prime Minister’s, and without the inconvenience of having to fire a communications director every 8 months.

#106 conan on 09.29.15 at 9:10 pm

Not sure I buy the 20 dollar a barrel predictions for oil.

The Middle East looks like it go into flambe mode at any moment.

And….. winter is coming.

#107 Ralph Cramdown on 09.29.15 at 9:11 pm

Bottoms_Up:

The traditional internet admonishment is “don’t feed the trolls!” But these nuts are true believers, you won’t change their minds, and you’ll incur a psychic cost. Just don’t engage. As an inspired man once said, “The ignorant will always be with us.”

#108 Washed Up Lawyer on 09.29.15 at 9:12 pm

#79 JSS on 09.29.15 at 8:16 pm
Transalta just cut 239 head office jobs in Calgary…
****************************

Recently the mood surrounding burning coal and manipulating electrical power prices in Alberta has been on a bit of a downer.

#109 Never Coming Back on 09.29.15 at 9:12 pm

-you get the government you deserve.

#110 For the love of a house | Realties.ca on 09.29.15 at 9:35 pm

[…] Source: http://www.greaterfool.ca/2015/09/29/for-the-love-of-a-house/ […]

#111 Leo Trollstoy on 09.29.15 at 9:38 pm

#37 Nagraj on 09.29.15 at 6:18 pm

What do you take on your camping trip to protect yourself from Bigfoot?

A camera.

#112 Linda on 09.29.15 at 9:39 pm

Today, Stats Can reports that the number of +65 year olds outnumbers children (under 14) for the first time.

This trend will increase dramatically for the next decade and more.

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/150929/dq150929b-eng.htm

Many of these will be selling their homes out of necessity.

Huge changes are just around the corner for our county.

#113 X on 09.29.15 at 9:41 pm

I get why the gov’t wants to prop up RE, as we really have nothing else going for our economy, other than a dropping $, but I really do feel sorry for those buying now. Putting everything into a home, with nothing else after they raided their RRSP’s and TFSA’s for the house money….

With any luck, the US will chug along, and raise rates so our RE market can have a correction. Corrections are healthy. Continual RE market ascension and tinkering will end badly….

#114 Smoking Man on 09.29.15 at 9:41 pm

I’ve listened to commies on here, I understand there plight. It’s almost voting time.

Being an entrepreneur most of my adult life, a problem solver, only way you could last all these years, cause if you can’t solve problems, you work for the civil service.

Trudeau, nice hair, wants to spend billions by putting me, my kids, my future grand kids in dept. Now if I thought for one minute the money would go into infrastructure he’d get my vote, but if Ontario is any example, it would be wasted on stupidity and cronies handouts.

Tommy Boy, wants to punish us with Carbon bullshit, he’s more right of the Lib’s, with the conference coming up, global warming Nazis, we would be locked into a treaty that will cost us huge

Harpo, my wallet loves his policey, I hate him, he hangs with the architects and phycos of 911, was sad about those three kids killed in a car crash in Vaughan , yet not a single tear for dead Palestinian kids.

I cry for all dead kids. I hate being bullshited especially about global warming con men, and I hate idiots that spend other people’s money like drunkin sailors.

Hence the dilemma.

#115 John in Mtl on 09.29.15 at 9:45 pm

#23 JSS on 09.29.15 at 5:26 pm

“what will be the impact on Canadian banks if/when this whole deck of house cards falls apart?”

Unless there’s massive unemployment, a world financial/monetary crash or a massive loss of faith in the system, this won’t fall apart.

#116 Nosty, etc. on 09.29.15 at 9:46 pm

DELETED (anti-Semetic)

#117 BS on 09.29.15 at 9:46 pm

I wonder. Has that ever worked before? Anywhere?

No, real estate bubbles always end in busts. Left, right or middle they are always pumped by the government in power until they pop. You can’t let off the gas or it implodes. The can must be kicked further down the road. That fact Harper is still pumping is normal.

Jr. Trudeau and Mulcair will also pump until it bursts if they get the chance. The only way it ends is a bust. It is never different.

#118 John in Mtl on 09.29.15 at 9:48 pm

#83 Tony on 09.29.15 at 8:09 pm

Re: #58 Md on 09.29.15 at 6:53 pm

” The home ownership rate in Canada will only fall. As prices collapse the cost of rent will fall sharply…”

Doubtful – supply and demand. If lots of people lose their house, they still need to live somewhere so they may rent for cheaper. More rental demand = less supply = price goes up.

Plus, there may not be enough supply because 1 – it doesn’t pay all that much to be a landlord, especially with rent control boards in some provinces; 2 – fewer rental properties were built in the last 10-20 years; 3 – many of the older 50’s to 70’s buildings were not maintained properly and those that were are quite expensive to rent.

#119 Dual Citizen In Canada on 09.29.15 at 9:52 pm

#84 Some Other Mark on 09.29.15 at 8:09 pm
Don’t get a green card or become a citizen and don’t buy property there. If you do any of the above, you’re in for a lifetime of tax hell trying to satisfy two different tax systems.

Seriousy? As a dual citizen, it’s the best move I ever made. I get my taxes professionally prepared and it’s well worth the expense to have a choice to live and work in Canada or the US. Don’t limit yourself. I own property in the US, rent in Canada and will come out unscathed at whatever happens here.

#120 Frank on 09.29.15 at 9:52 pm

So here’s the thing about bubbles. Even with a crash/correction there’s always a point in time where you were still better off getting in. Lets say the crash happened tomorrow and the average price went down to $350K (about $100K drop). Anyone that bought before 2010 would still be above water:

http://www.otterwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/april29.png

Now from the tone of this blog post and absence of any evidence it looks like the crash/correction won’t happen tomorrow. Maybe not for some time. So who’s to say that those who buy today won’t be better off if the reset price of the future correction is at or above today’s price.

The chart says one thing: sell. — Garth

#121 Maximum on 09.29.15 at 9:53 pm

It’s all about the BIG capitalist master plan you know… How can you enslave people? You either chained them in a shop like in the 18th or 19th century – didn’t quite work, to much unrest. Or you educate people about being good and servile citizens – that is being subjugated to social status, which translates into a lot of debt for most of the common.

Please God, give us 5 new versions of Iphone yearly, new colours of granite countertop weekly, new Audi Blue Engine technology and plenty of credit for thee – Amen

#122 Sheane Wallace on 09.29.15 at 9:59 pm

#93 Bottoms_Up

If your health care ‘experts’ in Canada are of comparable quality as the actuaries at CMHC I won’t trust them.

I can go on with the people that approve construction of glass condos, cardboard particle houses etc.

#123 BS on 09.29.15 at 10:00 pm

Do you still think the Conservative are the lesser Evil now?

Yes, because the other parties have proposed other new measures to inflate housing and nothing to deflate it like changes to CMHC, etc. Housing will be pumped no matter who wins the election. It is the other policies which differentiate the parties.

Although you could make an argument the NDP or Liberals will screw up the economy so bad it will cause housing to collapse quicker.

#124 Sheane Wallace on 09.29.15 at 10:02 pm

#107 Ralph Cramdown on

Don’t forget those words when you get the cancer boy,

#125 TurnerNation on 09.29.15 at 10:03 pm

India cut rates. Trend is your friend.

From Bloomberg.com

“India central bank Governor Raghuram Rajan built on his record of surprises with policy decisions Tuesday, taking advantage of a rout in commodity prices to lower borrowing costs by more than forecast.
Rajan, who unleashed emergency measures to prop up the rupee days after he took office and began this year with two unscheduled interest-rate cuts, lowered the benchmark repurchase rate by half a percentage point, to 6.75 percent. Most of the 52 economists surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted a quarter-point move, and just one made the right call.” <——- :-o

#126 45north on 09.29.15 at 10:06 pm

But, still, 72.5% is off the charts. A new benchmark for excess. And nobody should be foggy about the potential outcome.

it bears repeating: the US was able to cushion the collapse of housing by reducing the interest rate from 5% to 0%. Canada can only reduce from .5% to 0%. Half of all US mortgages were ( and are ) 30 year fixed rate mortgage. Unlike Canada where the longest is 5 years.

The Bank of Canada’s recent cut in interest rates and Poloz’s comments confirm that the Canadian economy cannot tolerate any increase in rates. None.

the whole thing will come crumbling down if the US Fed raises rates.

#127 Marco on 09.29.15 at 10:14 pm

Thanks Garth

Say what we may about Harper, he’s one shrewd politician.

He knows the Canadian ‘Zeitgeist’ = Homeownership. His only hope of winning big come Election Day is to pump it up, ja.

Cheers.

#128 Smoking Man on 09.29.15 at 10:17 pm

#120 Frank on 09.29.15 at 9:52 pm
So here’s the thing about bubbles. Even with a crash/correction there’s always a point in time where you were still better off getting in. Lets say the crash happened tomorrow and the average price went down to $350K (about $100K drop). Anyone that bought before 2010 would still be above water:

http://www.otterwoodcapital.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/april29.png

Now from the tone of this blog post and absence of any evidence it looks like the crash/correction won’t happen tomorrow. Maybe not for some time. So who’s to say that those who buy today won’t be better off if the reset price of the future correction is at or above today’s price.

The chart says one thing: sell. — Garth
….

Absolutely garth if you thought logic rules, but I don’t, I know how MSM rules, the influence it has on the Herd, perception of reality rules. For now.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

#129 Ralph Cramdown on 09.29.15 at 10:18 pm

#120 Frank — “So here’s the thing about bubbles. Even with a crash/correction there’s always a point in time where you were still better off getting in.”

True… sort of. These studies generally assume that buyers pay all cash (use no leverage) and otherwise leave their money under the mattress earning nothing.

Except at the very bottom of the cycle when no lenders are lending, most real estate investors use leverage. Except in deflationary panics, most people with capital have it invested at better than 0%.

And the whole “would have been better off getting in” thing is ex post facto.

#130 Jeff in Moose Jaw on 09.29.15 at 10:21 pm

What a great policy:

money for nothing…

#131 Jeff in Moose Jaw on 09.29.15 at 10:23 pm

What a policy:

Money for nothing…

#132 Steve French on 09.29.15 at 10:25 pm

Smoking Man:

I suggest you start back-pedalling on your climate change denier schtick.

You are starting to look very stupid indeed.

SteveO

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/

#133 DON on 09.29.15 at 10:25 pm

#34 Smoking Man on 09.29.15 at 6:01 pm

Don’t assume if and when a housing correction happens the herd will capitulate and take a loss. They would rather eat dirt.

And remember with many more years of zero rates, stuff might actually get paid off.

What I see is those that can’t buy, will leave town and make room for those that can.
***************************

Past herd actions indicate that they will buy an extra house (as an additional investment) or toy and not pay down existing debt.

Have any bubbles deflated in a controlled manner? Only takes one variable to go sideways and the avalanche begins.

Just and observation…but I’ll leave the economy to the trained real estate agents and their supreme leader who studied economics.

Lots of former oil workers returning to BC – lots of trucks on the side of the highways for sale.

Taxes/user fees are increasing in BC that should take care of any expendable cash.

#134 Tiger on 09.29.15 at 10:30 pm

Busting the myth that you can’t afford a home in Vancouver Presented by Wesgroup Properties

can u please talk about this in your blog tomorrow ?

http://www.vancitybuzz.com/2015/09/dontneed1million-busting-myth-need-1million-buy-home-vancouver/

http://thebrewerydistrict.ca/dontneed1million-to-own-a-home-in-vancouver/

http://thebrewerydistrict.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/WES_0439_dontneed1million-Infographic_f02.jpg

https://twitter.com/wesgroup

https://www.facebook.com/wesgroup

#135 BG on 09.29.15 at 10:42 pm

#92 Randy Randerson

If you’d come back at ground level you would notice many “wage slaves” live happy lives.
That you don’t want to be one is one thing.
Despising them to comfort yourself is another.

#136 Nora Lenderby on 09.29.15 at 10:43 pm

#98 Washed Up Lawyer on 09.29.15 at 8:48 pm
This few acres of snow we call a country is about to be infested with a bunch of aged boomer zombies driving poorly in a ’68 Dodge Polaris with a moose carcass strapped on the roof. They will need help and some of them have a lot of money.

Yup. Today we were nearly run down at a stop sign by a 75-year old lady driving her late husband’s Buick Century with her 95-year old mother riding shotgun. Very slowly.

Who knew that a steady diet of GMOs and bubble perms would provide such longevity? No fluoridation here, but we drink water from the St. Lawrence River (Colon of the Great Lakes™ ) so there’s plenty of variety in our chemical residues.

#137 bb on 09.29.15 at 10:46 pm

For the 51%, the word is “Paycheque-to-paycheque”. That means the working class Canadians. A lot of them renters.

#138 MF on 09.29.15 at 10:48 pm

#72 Bytor the Snow Dog on 09.29.15 at 7:46 pm

You mean the same Americans who drive huge SUV’s and enjoy the fruits of democracy every day. They don’t seem too upset.

As for the world’s policeman. Unfortunately a lot of people actually ask for US assurances. See a history of WW1 and WW2 when the US last tried to be a sleeping giant. Didn’t work out too well did it?

#74 conan on 09.29.15 at 7:51 pm

I watched the video. Putin talks about the US policy of arming mercenaries, rebels, and how it created the mess in Iraq/Syria/Libya…………all this while ignoring Russia’s involvement in the Ukraine (where they are arming mercenaries.) Makes complete sense.

MF

#139 Leo Trollstoy on 09.29.15 at 10:48 pm

Global home ownership rates.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_home_ownership_rate

It’s the combination of high home ownership and debt that is explosive.

#140 omg the original on 09.29.15 at 10:53 pm

SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF OUR HOUSING OBSESSION

Ultimately the chickens come home to roost.

The social consequences of our housing lust will be enormous over the next few decades. Of course nobody will wear it – the creators will all have moved onto to other jobs, retired, or gone to the great condo development in the sky.

Just a few ideas of the potential consequences:

– lower birth rates as house poor Millenials work two jobs to pay the mortgages and burgeoning upkeep on their chip board mansions. Lower birth rate will mean fewer Canadians to pay taxes for Millenials in their old age.

– a whole whack of drywallers, plumber, carpenters etc that will be underemployed when the housing market slows. They will be forced to retrain or just work at Walmart.

– there is only so much $$ to go around. So there will be a distortion towards residential construction and away from other sectors. What helps one sector hurt others.

– house building is a low tech, domestic industry while the world economy is evolving to transboarder information services. We are not going to be doing plumbing for the Chinese but the Chinese will be providing professional services to Canada.

– more delayed retirement of Boomers as they work to shore up their meagre retirement savings and pay for their kid’s $800k starter home. So fewer good jobs in the short term for Millenials.

– when Boomers do finally retire from all their professional jobs, government jobs, service jobs there may not be enough qualified Millenials – so many Millenials spent their education years learning to build condos. Or the smart ones ended up going to the US/Europe/Asia for work.

– and when Boomers try to cash out of their houses – which realistically will not happen in a major way until 2025 – the market may just be saturated. So that house sale mom and dad may have be relying on to fund their winters in Spain may disappoint.

– Boomer payback time – lots of Boomers will end up living in their kid’s basement suite as the Boomer can’t afford retirement and the kids can’t afford the mortgage/upkeep on the house.

#141 Bottoms_Up on 09.29.15 at 10:53 pm

#114 Smoking Man on 09.29.15 at 9:41 pm
———————————
You are right about the dead kids, and wrong about global warming.

You should have more faith that liberals, while running a small deficit, will actually balance the books due to economic growth.

You should have more faith that environmental protection and action is the right thing to do for your kids and your grandkids.

You should not vote for a man you hate.

#142 Expert bubu on 09.29.15 at 10:54 pm

#68 bubu
Time to leave Canada….. only in communism you find so many “home owners”…

—–

You do realize that “in communism” all privately owned homes were nationalized and former home owners were forced to pay rent for the new landlord, the government?

#143 Mark on 09.29.15 at 10:54 pm

” Lets say the crash happened tomorrow and the average price went down to $350K (about $100K drop). Anyone that bought before 2010 would still be above water:”

That’s just half the story (although a drop of far more than $100k would be likely — if the US is any model, prices would revert back to levels more typical of the year 2000, so probably that $350k house goes down to $150k!). A drop in housing prices would significantly impair the collateral that underlies mortgages in the banking system. Risk premia would thus expand significantly as a result.

Since we’re over 2 years into house price drops in Canada, we’re already seeing an expansion of risk premia, especially in the consumer sector. BoC policy rates have dropped by 50bp since January, but the bank-administered “Prime” rate has only fallen by roughly half of that. Normally they move in lock-step. The failure of the banks to cut “Prime” the full 50bp is a reflection of the diminishing credit-worthiness of borrowers linked to “Prime”.

Thus far, most of it is accruing to the bank’s income statements, resulting in record profits. However, impairments in collateral eventually result in defaults, and loss reserves at the banks will need to rise to reflect the increased risk of such.

As to the effect on the banks, I personally believe the housing crash is going to create a bifurcation between banks that are highly diversified/internationalized (RY, BNS), and banks that are less diversified. Certain Credit Unions are very scary, especially since they tend to have heavy concentration in lending against mortgages with weaker metrics, a structurally higher cost of funding, less effective supervision at the provincial level and by the markets themselves, and significantly greater concentration in lending to small business correlated with the real estate sector.

The end result, IMHO: the big banks will do well, but the government is likely to strong-arm them into taking over, at a loss, many of the insolvent Credit Unions. To avoid the spectre of the Credit Unions requiring an explicit government bailout and voter anger that would result if a bunch of little old ladies had their savings accounts haircutted by way of an ordinary resolution (ie: “bail-in” as such has been colloquially termed).

#144 Bottoms_Up on 09.29.15 at 10:57 pm

#112 Linda on 09.29.15 at 9:39 pm
———————————-
Of approximately 10 couples or singles i know post-retirement age, 90% want or do stay in their homes as long as feasibly possible. My great grandmother lived in her own home until late 80s.

So while boomer demographic is aging, a flood of housing on the market is just not going to happen.

#145 Mark on 09.29.15 at 10:59 pm

“2 – fewer rental properties were built in the last 10-20 years;”

Every property that is currently ‘owned’ can become a rental giving a willing owner. I think you are slightly confused between the concept of a ‘purpose-built’ rental, and a rental generally.

Falling house prices may in the short term reduce rents, especially as risk premia rises against housing-related debt, and hoarders of empty real estate are forced to lower their prices to actually attract tenants. However, over the long term, housing prices dropping below depreciated replacement cost will eventually truncate supply, leading to rising rents. This probably will take at least 5-10 years to really show up as there is certain to be a significant liquidation period involved with the RE supply sector which will bring additional RE supply to market, even with falling prices.

#146 NotAGreaterFool on 09.29.15 at 11:00 pm

Economist keep saying in the absence of a trigger event (job losses, sudden spike in rates), there is no real danger of deep price drops.

Harper agrees. As such, he is doubling down. His pledge to drive up home-ownership is really a risk mitigation plan for an ailing Canadian economy.

House prices will keep rising.

#147 MF on 09.29.15 at 11:00 pm

#116 Nosty, etc. on 09.29.15 at 9:46 pm

**I really hope Garth lets me post this. This is a link from this Nosty clown at post 116. He called it “the slave state”

Last quote from this article:

“The Jews have to go, and we have to reclaim our birthright and repair our damaged planet. It is too beautiful a place to be left in the hands of evil psychos.”

That’s what this clown is all about. Garth needs to ban the clown once and for all to stop him from spreading his poison.

MF

Agreed. I missed that, and regret it. This bigot has been warned previously. He is gone. — Garth

#148 Mark on 09.29.15 at 11:00 pm

“Many of these will be selling their homes out of necessity.”

To whom? The demographically weaker under-14 crowd? Good luck with that. Just that statistic alone, nevermind the severe overpricing, instability of the credit markets, etc., already guarantees a crash beneath depreciated replacement cost for the Canadian RE market.

#149 Mark on 09.29.15 at 11:04 pm

“You should be thankful that most Canadians are financial morons. If everyone thought Fortis was a good investment, it would be selling at 40x earnings, just like houses, and you’d have to wait for a crash to buy more.”

Extremely good point. I’ve been saying this for years. Canadian stock investors should be thanking their lucky starts that the dumb speculators are all tied up in housing, and not in the real high quality income producing assets such as what you describe.

Owning housing will be what makes Canadians poor in the future. Owning solid income producing non-RE correlated assets will make smart Canadians rich.

The ‘math’ is so simple, as you point out, that one would almost have to be a dummy not to see it right at them staring them in the face. Houses should have what, a P/E ratio of 8-10 considering that they are low-growth assets over the long term. Not the 35-40X P/E that you (correctly) describe. A 70-80% relative correction is quite likely for housing versus Canadian stocks.

#150 Bottoms_Up on 09.29.15 at 11:05 pm

Garth you really do get lots of crazies out here. It’s seriously dangerous, as these are the types of people that propagate misinformation and lies, and who are believed by the gullible.

#151 Bottoms_Up on 09.29.15 at 11:12 pm

#94 tundra pete on 09.29.15 at 8:42 pm
————————————-
And for the record, some European countries are anti-gmo simply because it’s politically sexy, and has nothing to do with a solid understanding of science and safety.

The masses can be wrong. Look at the European vs. Western approaches to climate change. Look at Hungary’s treatment of Syrian refugees.

#152 MF on 09.29.15 at 11:16 pm

#150 Bottoms_Up on 09.29.15 at 11:05 pm

Agreed. Like a poster said a few weeks ago, we are lucky to have a live moderator. It ensures good, “mostly” respectable dialogue lol.

#146 NotAGreaterFool on 09.29.15 at 11:00 pm

That’s right. But at some point we will reach a point where house prices are completely unaffordable. When housing depends on increases in capital gains to offset expenses like mortgage interest, property tax, utilities etc., it will implode under it’s own weight. We are seeing some of that now with the extreme leverage people are taking on.

MF

#153 Jorge Best on 09.29.15 at 11:20 pm

#107 cynically on 09.29.15 at 1:11 am
#s 58 and 79 — Canada’s diminished reputation and declining world influence are a figment of your imaginations. Are you living in the real world? Apart from and since the heroic efforts of Canadians in the second world war, Canada has always been propped up by its mother country, Britain, and its good neighbour, the U.S. …… Had we opened our immigration at the turn of the 19th century like the Americans did we would be a far different and stronger country today and what you say would have some merit but we were British and the rest is history.”

The British connection may explain why Canada is so useless at football/soccer..

#154 omg the original on 09.29.15 at 11:23 pm

Victoria Real Eatate Update on 09.29.15 at 5:33 pm

There is no example of a country with a housing bubble where the bubble deflated in a safe, controlled, soft landing manner.

All housing bubbles deflate in such a way that there is widespread negative economic effects stemming from falling house prices.
—————————–

Not sure how old you are so you may not know about this……….but the PRIME example of a LONG, SLOW grinding CORRECTION was the Ontario market of the 1990s.

And this correction was not really the prime mover behind the economic malaise in Ontario at the time – it was the massive shift in the manufacturing sector. Housing was really collateral damage to the collapse of rustbelt north.

But lets remember back to the simpler times of the late 1980s. Property values had reached epic bubble heights in TO and southwestern Ontario by late 1989. There were bidding wars, condo pre sells, people buying multiple rental units.

The early to mid 1990s saw modest annual decreases in house prices followed by price stagnation for several more years on Toronto and SW Ontario. The price stagnation continued in southwestern Ontario until the mid 2000s.

The result was that Toronto prices from 1990 to 2000 lost almost 40% value IN REAL 1990 DOLLAR terms.

In places like London, Windsor, Chatham price fell 40-50% in real terms from 1990 to the mid 2000s.

But luckily people do not view the world in Real Dollars. So people kept feeling OK about their house investment – they just didn’t realize that though the 1990s housing lost ground against every other asset class out there.

#155 Randy Randerson on 09.29.15 at 11:24 pm

#135 BG on 09.29.15 at 10:42 pm

Do animals born and raised in a zoo know true freedom?

Wage slaves are prisoners of their own minds and thoughts; they can’t see past the path that’s already laid out for them from The Man/Society. It’s sort of like The Matrix, with the red and blue pill.

I’ve taken the red pill, but most of my peers are happy to take the blue pill. Ignorant is bliss.

#156 Jorge Best on 09.29.15 at 11:28 pm

#136 Woke To The Sounds Of Horking on 09.29.15 at 10:45 am
What if you’re a Canadian expat and you live in a Third-World — oops, I mean, Developing — Country, and your expenses are wayyyyy below your cost of living, and you’ve no debt, and you’ve got a very modest (not enough to live off) diversified portfolio containing 18% Canadian kindling. What do you do then? Do you eat the scorpion on the bamboo skewer? Garth has no answers for guys like me.”

You should definitely show your cultural origins by responding to the horking, with a hockey-esque snot rocket….instant friends with the locals, but don’t drink the whiskey with the snake in it…..

Here’s a snot rocket for dummies guide in case you have forgotten

http://www.runnersworld.com/running-tips/5-steps-to-the-perfect-snot-rocket

#157 Fluor on 09.29.15 at 11:29 pm

#150 Bottoms_Up
Garth you really do get lots of crazies out here. It’s seriously dangerous, as these are the types of people that propagate misinformation and lies, and who are believed by the gullible.

You were never forced to drink water without fluor, eat GMO-free, organic food – yet you think these “crazies” are the seriously dangerous:)

#158 whatever I said my name was last time on 09.29.15 at 11:35 pm

“The candidates may espouse this or that…but in the final analysis they’ll tow the party line.

I didn’t. — Garth”

Which is why you do what you do now. I don’t say this despairingly, actually quite the opposite. We need more people in all levels of government that will stand up for what they think is right and not just spout the party talking points and vote as they are told.

Sadly our system has deteriorated in the opposite direction even further than when you were an MP. Michael Chong put forth the best effort to correct this and his bill was watered down to be very ineffective as far as some of the reforms desperately needed. He at least made a great attempt though. Canadians can respect a guy like that. So many others deserve nothing more than our contempt given their antics whether on the political shows or out in public either pushing the limits of the rules or outright breaking them. The whole time spewing things that they know are just not true.

#159 Jorge Best on 09.29.15 at 11:41 pm

The homebuilders, framers, realtors, mortgage lenders, plumbers, developers and especially the bankers want this. “- Garth

Sir,

May I suggest that the beaver is in fact a suitable Canuck national symbol based on this…instead of clogging up the waterways, these human beavers are clogging up the economy by literally blocking the flow to other key areas of the economy….

#160 For those about to flop... on 09.29.15 at 11:44 pm

It’s a pity Jim Prentice isn’t running in this election because there seems to be a lot of people blaming banks and the government when they should be looking at the greedy dick in the mirror.

#161 Mike h on 09.29.15 at 11:46 pm

Garth,
Im asking if you would please change your picture for tonight’s blog. The loss caused by a drunk driver t-boneing that mini van and killing those children and grand dad angers me so much. This your blog and I respect that but please consider my request. Thanks

A tragedy, but I fail to see the connection. — Garth

#162 Herf on 09.29.15 at 11:52 pm

#93 Bottoms_Up

“Organic foods have not been proven to be of higher nutritional value. The definition of organic foods boils down to being grown in soil that hasn’t had pesticide use for 3 years.”

Whenever I hear of or see food labelled “organic”, I instantly have visions of things like e-coli, Walkerton, garden produce tainted with cow manure, stomach cramps, diarrhea, vomiting, organs shutting down, etc.

Makes me wonder what the nimrod that dreamed up the “organic” food sales pitch was thinking.

#163 MF on 09.29.15 at 11:55 pm

#148 Mark on 09.29.15 at 11:00 pm

Exactly. StatsCan just released a report that said for the first time the over 65 crowd outnumbers the under 15 crowd.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/statistics-canada-seniors-1.3248295

I think it will take a couple decades to actually play out though. The boomer seniors are, on average, healthier than their parents were. They will probably live longer and continue to work and make mortgage payments, help out kids with down payments, finance kids etc. for longer too.

What will finally end the bubble will be a combination of excess debt, lousy job prospects, and rising interest rates rather than demographics IMO.

MF

#164 Nemesis on 09.29.15 at 11:58 pm

“Just this week we learned people have been gorging on loans like this was the Last Supper.” – HonGT

#GreatPortrait… #TooBadAboutTheDenouement…

https://youtu.be/VA1sx-vyWVk

#165 OXI in GREECE !! on 09.29.15 at 11:59 pm

#17 Bottoms_Up on 09.29.15 at 5:14 pm

Let’s get a few things straight:

Fluoride in water-this is studied intensely by top doctors and scientists in Canada. There are no ill efdects from current levels of drinking water fluoridation.

Organic food-check the definition of what makes something organic, and i can assure you there are no guarantees of higher quality or increased safety.

GMO foods-DNA has been manipulated in foods since forever. Cross-breeding anything creates a “gmo”. Itvis not a big scary black hole. It’s biology, and changes in DNA are very normal. Modifying something to make it drought or pest resistant, while retaining nutrition and safety, is the key.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Yes lets get a few things straight.

1. Doctors work for Govt. Govt does not give licenses, grants or approves anything doctors do unless they are toting the Govt line.

2. You really want to compare naturally splicing some varieties of wheat to putting pesticide INTO THE CORN GENETICALLY like BT ready corn in "Murica"? And your right….safety is the key. And there is no safety because Govt is bought and paid for by Corporations who don't give a crap about people…..only money.

And I will make a lot of money, and I will bless it, and I will laugh;
(Book of crooks, 1:1-2)

#166 OXI in GREECE !! on 09.30.15 at 12:01 am

#162 Herf on 09.29.15 at 11:52 pm
#93 Bottoms_Up

“Organic foods have not been proven to be of higher nutritional value. The definition of organic foods boils down to being grown in soil that hasn’t had pesticide use for 3 years.”

Whenever I hear of or see food labelled “organic”, I instantly have visions of things like e-coli, Walkerton, garden produce tainted with cow manure, stomach cramps, diarrhea, vomiting, organs shutting down, etc.

Makes me wonder what the nimrod that dreamed up the “organic” food sales pitch was thinking.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Whenever I see Corporate Non-Organic food I think of pesticides, pesticide genetically engineered corn, flavorless crap they try to pass off as food, a sickly population who is not getting any nutrients from the crap they try to pass off as food…….

#167 debtified on 09.30.15 at 12:04 am

I am a big fan of Blue Rodeo. They just got political.

http://m.music.cbc.ca/blogs/2015/9/Blue-Rodeo-slams-Stephen-Harper-government-in-new-protest-song-watch#/

Just sharing, not endorsing.

I have always said that Harper is a bad public servant but a great politician. This time he could get lucky and win again because the other parties are just so dumb to go with bad policies. This election is between the heart and the brain. Let’s see which one the Canadians listen to.

#168 Millmech on 09.30.15 at 12:09 am

My foreman tried to sell me his house today,bought in 2006 for 400,000,put in “about”$100,000 in renovations since then,has had it on the market for a year,no bites.Offered it to me at a 25% discount for what he paid in 2006.Said no as I like to be mobile and untethered in case work changes.Basically lost $1600/mth in equity since purchase over nine years not including interest and property taxes.Thats close to two weeks take home pay being lost every month for nine years,yikes!

#169 Nemesis on 09.30.15 at 12:19 am

“I didn’t.” – HonGT

https://youtu.be/F9ByLDrajh4

#170 Steve French on 09.30.15 at 12:25 am

Read it and weep Smoking Man.

Guess what Alberta. The tar sands are a stranded asset.

#wrongsideofhistory

– SteveO

——–

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/622de3da-66e6-11e5-97d0-1456a776a4f5.html#axzz3nBnPVXI5

Financial Times

September 29, 2015

“Mark Carney warns investors face ‘huge’ climate change losses”

The governor of the Bank of England has thrown down the gauntlet to the fossil fuel industry with a blunt warning that investors face “potentially huge” losses from climate change action that could make vast reserves of oil, coal and gas “literally unburnable”.

In a sweeping assessment of the financial risks posed by global warming, Mark Carney acknowledged there was a danger the assets of fossil fuel companies could be left “stranded” by tougher rules to curb climate change.

“The exposure of UK investors, including insurance companies, to these shifts is potentially huge,” he told a Lloyd’s of London dinner on Tuesday night, explaining 19 per cent of FTSE 100 companies were in the natural resources and extraction industries.

“The challenges currently posed by climate change pale in significance compared with what might come,” he said.

[continued…]

———

#171 Bob dog on 09.30.15 at 12:39 am

If you take into account speculateors with multiple properties the ownership rate is over 70%. I know single women in Vancouver with average jobs who own multiple properties.

Harper got his education from the bible. What do you expect.

NDP or USA. Which is it going to be for the b-dog in 2016.

#172 Nagraj on 09.30.15 at 12:41 am

#52 LEA: chupacabra
#111 LEO TROLLSTOY: Bigfoot

The chupacabra or, literally, Goat Sucker (no, I am NOT making this up, who could?) was first sighted in Puerto Rico, and differs from the species I mentioned in my previous post in that the chupacabra is defined as a cryptid.
Oddly enough, Bigfoot is also defined as a cryptid; I myself don’t think that’s quite right. I’m sure, and I just bet you are too, that Bigfeet, Sasquatches, Yeti and Trolls read newspapers, and write letters to editors. Cryptids are not literate.

What, I think, we might be particularly worried about as Canadians, is jobschupas, creatures who energetically suck jobs out of existence. For some reason a lot of these jobschupas wear suits and ties, and are quite unconscious of their daily activities. They tend to inhabit urban centres.

******************************************

#73 KAGANOVICH: The origins of the Passivhaus are the native igloo, tepee, and yurt. Especially young Canadians, priced out of real estate in Condoronto and elsewheres, would be well advised to consider the supreme utility of these affordable and classic structures.

(Ach! Du lieber Augustin, Augustin, Augustin! Alles ist hin. Hut is weg, Stock ist weg, liegt im Dreck. Ach! Du lieber Augustin, alles ist hin.)
[Alas, dear Augustus, all is lost. Designer duds gone, fancy car’s gone, all down the drain. Everything’s FUBAR.]

#173 Mister Obvious on 09.30.15 at 12:45 am

Get some soapy water and blow a bubble. Can you figure out a way to make it deflate slowly?

I thought so.

A bubble is a rather poor analogy for RE prices if one wants to leave open the possibility of slow drop. A real bubble pops unpredictably but not unexpectedly.

Just sayin’. Anyone got a better analogy?

#174 Herf on 09.30.15 at 1:02 am

#103 In the cold from Toronto

“Just google “Russian communist apartment blocks” and take a look at those images; I am certain nobody in their right mind would like to live in such buildings.”

I can’t speak about the apartments in Russia, but when the commies controlled Slovakia, their solution for providing housing to the masses was the same – build block-after-block of concrete low and high-rise apartment buildings, apparently heated from centrally located heating plants. Most looked weathered and utilitarian on the outside, but on the inside the individual apartment units that I witnessed (when I was there in ’96) were actually well-kept. The country was still just emerging from under communism, so people were generally not well-off financially or high-income earners, but they seemed to take pride in the small spaces (i.e. apartments) they called home.

Points of interest I observed while there:

– a high-rise building had only one small elevator that could hold 4 to 6 people (while not burdened with any luggage or parcels).

– the elevators used a somewhat primitive electrical control system and stopped between two floors, after which you had to walk up or down a flight of stairs to get to your floor. (In fact, if I recall correctly, the elevator on the “ground floor” was located up a flight of stairs from the lobby). This made moving in or out of the apartment fun (not). I helped an older couple from the U.S. who were serving there as missionaries, move all their stuff up to their 6th floor apartment – i.e. 12 flights of stairs. The elevator was too small for their up-right piano, so we (five or six of us) had to carry it up the stairs. I think we managed to only put one chip in it).

– the door thresholds between rooms in the apartments all had slats of wood (equivalent to a 1″x 3″ board) laid across the door opening on the outside of the room, creating a “speed bump” threshold. It was probably used to hold the carpeting on both sides of the door opening in place, but it was a pain to have present when trying to push or drag a mobile cart or table with wheels through the doorway. (Guess the Europeans haven’t heard of the thin metal molding we use in Canada). Also, it took a bit of getting used to stepping “over” the doorway when entering or leaving a room.

– most apartments had balconies and people hung their laundry on a clothes line out on the balcony.

– 1-metre satellite dishes hanging off the exterior walls and/or located on apartment balconies, were common, and this was before the small satellite-dish t.v. services became available in Canada.

#175 Randy Randerson on 09.30.15 at 1:12 am

#161 Mike h on 09.29.15 at 11:46 pm

Aren’t you a special snowflake, because a photo offended you for no reason, you’ve asked the host to remove it. Out of thousands of visitor a day, what makes you think your one special request will make GT changes his mind? Imagine he does that to every special snowflake who has ever asked him to change the photo, what do you think will happen?

In case you didn’t get it, it was a rhetorical question.

And honestly, on this planet of 6 BILLION people, you will be lucky to have 100 of them who care about your feeling. Such is life, so toughen up and stop being a pussy.

#176 juno on 09.30.15 at 1:14 am

Hate to say it, I can see Canada lowering the interest rates another 1/4 point.

Doesn’t look like Harper Cares, just wants to get re-elected and let the party roll on

#177 Jon Prine on 09.30.15 at 1:17 am

#101 R on 09.29.15 at 8:57 pm
Don’t worry, Joe Oliver is watching housing closely

Good one….
“We are monitoring the situation” Where did anybody think he was a good candidate for F’s job? What a joke!

#178 jane 24 on 09.30.15 at 1:58 am

Canada is in for a decade of pain as the Winner of this election instantly becomes, upon election, the Loser of this election.

You cannot make a housing boom run for the next four years when the rest of the world has gone in a different direction.

The global black swans are landing on Canada’s lawn. Why would anyone think that Canada is immune to events? It just boggles my mind.

In the next month or two US and UK interest rates will rise and global funds will switch out of the Cdn dollar chasing higher rates. The loonie will fall and to try to control domestic inflation whoever the govt is will raise rates. This is just the way it is. Higher rates mean lower prices for anything that requires financing such as houses. This is Finance 101. The only thing I can’t believe is how anyone would think that life is any different.

Of course here in England a loonie is a politically incorrect term for a person with mental difficulties, so that may say a lot.

#179 nonplused on 09.30.15 at 2:05 am

Everyone should have a hot tub, so I guess it’s Harper.

On the other hand capital gains reductions on rentals would be sweet! I guess it’s Mulcair.

Except that there isn’t going to be any capital gains for a while, so I guess it’s Harper. I’m voting for the hot tub party!

#180 Freedom First on 09.30.15 at 2:09 am

#76 Aggregator

English must be your second language. Or, your reading comprehension skills are poor. You have missed the whole essence of this Blog.

It is ok. I’m here to help. Top right hand corner. Top Personal Finance Blog Award.

Aggregate, you are welcome. No charge.

#181 Ferdinand on 09.30.15 at 2:33 am

Completely agree with you Garth. Same policies, different country. Government via Fred/Fan, HUD, FHA, CRA, and the alphabet soup cult of statism, created that last great downturn, which is far from over. Zero rates and printing pretty paper will have their own deleterious consequences.

I remember Harper from his days as a von Mises school of economy acolyte. Like Greenspan [Ayn Rand disciple], it appears that power distorts, twists and shapes Keynesians and Marxists.

Harper is about as ‘conservative’ as big gov’t loving Georgie Bush.

If the fall of 2008 did not happen, OClowna would not be prez…..imagine that. The Father and God of us all, would be working with the ACLU in the Chicago Ghetto. Apparently housing downturns do have consequences.

#182 Freedom First on 09.30.15 at 2:37 am

#117 BS

Yes. I agree. I could not have said it better.

It is like a game of “Takeaway”. Give the people everything they want. Then take everything away. The game never changes. If you can’t think for yourself. Trust me.

#183 Freedom First on 09.30.15 at 3:12 am

#144 Bottoms Up

Wrong. The RE flood will happen and it will be epic.

Garth has gone over the $$$$$ numbers of the Boomers. The majority are not well prepared for retirement. Too much debt, too little
cash outside of their houses, and the vast majority have no, or poor, work place pensions.

Plus, their entitled offspring are bleeding them dry of their few resources and their own home equity. The majority of Boomers are hanging onto their jobs much longer than they want too. Trust me.

#184 Freedom First on 09.30.15 at 3:27 am

#155 Randy Randerson

Congrats on your red pill. My generation, you were just identified as a confirmed bachelor. I have to say, that today, it is a much more dangerous world for men with every passing year. For many obvious reasons that I can see you are aware of. I read your Posts. Make sure you get snipped. It is your only defense. Enjoy your life. Consider it your duty.

#185 Ken Lovegrove on 09.30.15 at 5:22 am

Was just thinking about the interest rate historical average. Looking at Bank of England figures I estimate probably around 8%

#186 Steve French on 09.30.15 at 5:53 am

Capitalism (The love of money)

Is trying to destroy

Socialism (The love of people)

Us

Not those 1% pricks who steal the wealth we create.

#187 David on 09.30.15 at 6:45 am

After all Mr Bush did help us put food on our families.

#188 ANON on 09.30.15 at 6:46 am

The homebuilders, framers, realtors, mortgage lenders, plumbers, developers and especially the bankers want this.

It’s a pretty sure bet that home-buyers (i.e.everyone missing from the list) also want this. :)
If it looks like a mania, walks like a mania and quacks like a mania, it probably is a raving mania.

#189 saskatoon on 09.30.15 at 7:28 am

#186 Steve French

the initiation of force is not loving.

theft is not compassion.

violence is not peace.

#190 DJG on 09.30.15 at 7:41 am

The irony is that the core tory voter in the suburbs is a bigoted xenophobe. The home ownership strategy would actually work better if there was a more open immigration policy, but Harper will also have to pander to the base who don’t want Johnny Foreigner coming in and buying up all of our precious real estate.

#191 Millenial on 09.30.15 at 8:00 am

Garth,

Unrest in China.

But what does it matter, all the way over there, right?

#192 maxx on 09.30.15 at 8:10 am

#20 Mf on 09.29.15 at 5:19 pm

“…….This RE industry is full of scum at every stop. From agents to brokers…………..”

Time to start suing for realtor bs.

Recently viewed a place with a the scummiest of realturds. He went on and on about how a crack in the foundation had never let water into the basement and that the seller was being pro-active in having had a “friend” waterproof the exterior.

We kept at him as it looked suspect to say the least. He (finally) got it from the horse’s mouth and, lo and behold, there had been water in the basement.

Scum is not a big enough word. Beware of these moronic, commission-mad predators. Many are way stupid and would be so easy to catch in their own lies and sue. Bring along a witness wherever possible.

#193 maxx on 09.30.15 at 8:21 am

#38 I’m stupid on 09.29.15 at 6:18 pm

“Has anyone ever wondered why the casino uses chips instead of real money? It’s because people gamble more when they see a plastic chip. It’s the same as taking a loan or paying with a credit card instead of real cash, if you bought a home with a million in cash I bet you would think twice.”

Move to the head of the class.

#194 Smoking Man on 09.30.15 at 8:34 am

#132 Steve French on 09.29.15 at 10:25 pm
Smoking Man:

I suggest you start back-pedalling on your climate change denier schtick.

You are starting to look very stupid indeed.

SteveO

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/
…….

Steve O I’m old school, “beilive nothing you hear,and half of what you see.”

I know this, the environment, AK weather has been the same for the last 50 or so years I remember.

We have a dishonest MSM that buckles to political pressure.

The polar ice isn’t melting, climate scientists know who butters their bread, and the consequences of not towing the party line.

It’s a scam that I haven’t figured out how to profit from yet, when I do..

I’ll be the first dude on Bay street with a black tee shirt and sign that says, save the world from Carbon Nazis.

#195 The American on 09.30.15 at 8:48 am

At #72: Bytor the Snow Bitch, you are really disillusioned and ignorant. Practically devoid of any global affairs or comprehending the sheer mass of requests that constantly bombard the U.S. for intervention, assistances, and aid.

Your ignorant comment that “No one asked the US to be the World’s Policeman. They just do it for the same reason a dog licks itself….because they can…” is so fundamentally Canadian that it is laughable. It is the remark of one with a vast inferiority complex.

Let’s see here… Countries specifically asking for U.S. assistance and aid in 2015 that have received it *so far* include:
Israel
Afghanistan
Egypt
Pakistan
Nigeria
Jordan
Tanzania
Kenya
Ethiopia
Uganda
Haiti
Mexico
Barbado & Eastern Carribean
Dominican Republic
Cuba
Jamaica
The Bahamas
Trinidad & Tobago
Colombia
Peru
Guatemala
Honduras
El Salvador
Paraguay
Nicaragua
Guyana
Venezuela
Panama
Brazil
Costa Rica
Chile
Belize
Argentina
Uruguay
Equador
Uganda
South Africa
Mozambique
Zambia
South Sudan
Democratic Republic of Congo
Somalia
Malawi
Rwanda
Ghana
Zimbabwe
Cote d’ivoire
Liberia
Mali
Senegai
Madagascar
Botswana
Angola
Burundi
Namibia
Swaziland
Cameroon
Lesotho
Morocco
Benin
Guinea
Burkina Faso
Djibouti
Cape Verde
Sudan
Niger
Mauritania
Sierra Leone
Chad
Suriname
Togo
Gabon
Seychelles
Comoros
Mauritius
Republic of Congo
Sao Tome & Principe
Gambia

If you believe for a second that the U.S. should blindly write checks to these countries, without any kind of understanding or agreement in advance, then you are sadly mistaken. These countries do ask for U.S. to intervene.

I ask you this… What countries have asked for Canada to assist them in 2015 alone? With comments like yours, I truly do wonder what they teach you up there. It’s very, very sad indeed. By the way.. I only provided you partial data.

#196 Smoking Man on 09.30.15 at 8:49 am

Steve O

If you want to worry about something real..

It’s begun

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11900853/Putin-request-for-use-of-Russian-troops-in-Syria-approved-live.html

#197 Maple Leaf Limited on 09.30.15 at 8:53 am

Garth –

I hate to be a pedant, but REALLY!

‘…In June of 2002, three years before the US housing market collapsed in an event which nearly brought the world down…’

Three years? Try five, or even six. The first hint of housing market problems occurred in early August 2007, when a couple of mortgage-backed CDO funds had to suspend redemptions. How do I remember? The day after, a Friday, I was riding back to Toronto from New York aboard the Amtrak train, sitting in the first-class section reading a complimentary copy of the New York Times, and the news was splattered all over page one. Seven months later – March/2008 – Bear Stearns went down, Lehman Bros. collapsed in September 2008 and that was it.

Perhaps your original date was a typo? Generally your accuracy is better.

US house prices peaked in the Spring of 2005 and began a relentless descent thereafter. Too bad you missed ‘the first hint’, but I’m happy you got a free newspaper. — Garth

#198 Smoking Man on 09.30.15 at 9:04 am

On a positive note

Canadian GDP going the right way. Don’t expect a BOC Cut in Oct.

The low rate dollar killing policy seems to be paying off.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/leading-economic-index

#199 Ralph Cramdown on 09.30.15 at 9:04 am

#124 Sheane Wallace — “Don’t forget those words when you get the cancer boy”

Thanks for the kind words! Of twelve first- and second-generation descendants of my maternal grandparents, I’ve buried four. All from cancer, and younger than 60. All non smokers, very occasional drinkers and, for the most part, ate meat and vegetables that they produced themselves. So I’m guessing I’m susceptible, just like the rats in the flawed study by Séralini. Beats dementia.

#200 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09.30.15 at 9:17 am

#45 Smoking Man on 09.29.15 at 6:30 pm
You won’t see this on MSM
https://youtu.be/VbZDyr2LkdI
Holy Crap Tylenol, care to comment.
_____________________________________________
While Putin may speak part truths the Russians have their own global agenda as well. Putin was an ex KGB agent for almost two decades before he got into politics. These KGB agents don’t change much. Have a look at the video and now ask your self why is Russia bombing this part of Syria? Its quite obvious.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/30/politics/russia-syria-airstrikes-isis/

#201 Admirer on 09.30.15 at 9:42 am

Carl Icahn is very worried about high yield bonds (junk bonds). Especially when they are being bundled in etf’s. He chastised Blackrock for offering these etf’s and says that it will not end well.

Are these part of the balanced, diversified portfolio that is always talked about here?

A small weighting in high-yield bonds makes sense. Investors should seek a vehicle containing credit-worthy assets and with high liquidity. — Garth

#202 Mf on 09.30.15 at 10:08 am

#195 The American on 09.30.15 at 8:48 am

Exactly. See my post at 138. Everyone moans and complains about the us -then runs to it asking for help in times of regional conflict, natural disaster, epidemic, or economic malaise.

Wheres The Tylenol on 09.30.15 at 9:17 am

Hilarious eh? Like I said in my above post, I watched that video posted with Putin talking about what he thought was a failed US policy of arming mercenaries in Libya/Syria/Iraq….all while he is doing the exact same thing in the Ukraine. The sanctions from Ukraine and the lower price of oil have severely hurt the Russian economy. Maybe he should worry about that?

Mf

#203 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09.30.15 at 10:08 am

#114 Smoking Man on 09.29.15 at 9:41 pm
I’ve listened to commies on here, I understand there plight. It’s almost voting time.
Being an entrepreneur most of my adult life, a problem solver, only way you could last all these years, cause if you can’t solve problems, you work for the civil service.
Trudeau, nice hair, wants to spend billions by putting me, my kids, my future grand kids in dept. Now if I thought for one minute the money would go into infrastructure he’d get my vote, but if Ontario is any example, it would be wasted on stupidity and cronies handouts.
Tommy Boy, wants to punish us with Carbon bullshit, he’s more right of the Lib’s, with the conference coming up, global warming Nazis, we would be locked into a treaty that will cost us huge
Harpo, my wallet loves his policey, I hate him, he hangs with the architects and phycos of 911, was sad about those three kids killed in a car crash in Vaughan , yet not a single tear for dead Palestinian kids.
I cry for all dead kids. I hate being bullshited especially about global warming con men, and I hate idiots that spend other people’s money like drunkin sailors.

Hence the dilemma.
_____________________________________________
The Palestinian Kids deaths are a result of a war that is still going on today and until they are accepted back into Islamic based nations as citizens it will continue. May 4, 1948, the Arab Legion attacked Kfar Etzion. The defenders drove them back, but the Legion returned a week later. After two days, the ill-equipped and outnumbered Jewish settlers were overwhelmed. Many defenders were massacred after they surrendered. In all, 148 people were killed, women, children including the settlement’s Palmach defenders. So war kills children Smoking Man! Are you upset that Jewish children also died?
The Koran clearly states (Sura 5:21) that God granted the Land of Israel to the Children of Israel and ordered them to settle there. In addition, it is predicted that before the end of days, God will bring the Children of Israel to retake possession of the Land, gathering them from the different countries and nations (Sura 17:104). This is a fact that can not be refuted for any follower of the Koran. You may blame the British for fomenting discord between Muslims and Jews and maintaining a “divide and conquer policy” when Israel was formed.
When Arab nationalism was destroyed, this left a void, which was filled by Saudi Arabia and Wahhabism. Because Israel borders on the Arab countries and is in the center of the Middle East, it is a more direct threat to Arab regimes. They are afraid that if there were normal relations between their countries and Israel, their citizens would be able to compare between the democracy and advanced society in Israel and their own backwardness. I have been to Israel and when you see what a Palestinian area looks like compared to a Israeli area it is like walking back in time 1000 years.
Today, official Palestinian Authority propaganda denies any connection of the Jews to Jerusalem. In doing so, they are not only revising history but also classical Islamic sources. The Koran presents the same history as the Bible. This was clear to Muslim scholars for centuries – Al Aksa and Solomon’s Temple are in the same place. When the Caliph Omar first arrived in Jerusalem, he called the city Bayet Al Makdis – Beit Hamikdash or the House of the Temple. This was shortened to Al Quds. Its still Solomon’s Temple.
I have been in a very unpopular war and in any circumstance the death of innocents is unacceptable. On the Palestinian issue I have as much sympathy for their children as Israeli children or for that matter any children. Children don’t start wars, but they are part of them.

#204 IHCTD9 on 09.30.15 at 10:09 am

The banks and politicians can make a sweet deal for folks wanting to get into the RE market as an incentive. But no one is holding a gun to anyone’s head saying sign on the dotted line.

If every house in Canada cost 1 Million, and they were giving money away at .01% – I still would not buy. These tear downs aren’t worth it. Neither are the non tear downs.

If these “enticement” policies continue to stimulate both sales numbers despite the full-retard pricing, I will have to eventually concede that Canadians have been fully given over to their emotions.

This is going to get real bad before it starts getting better….

#205 Nora Lenderby on 09.30.15 at 10:23 am

#132 Steve French on 09.29.15 at 10:25 pm
Smoking Man:I suggest you start back-pedalling on your climate change denier schtick. You are starting to look very stupid indeed.

Starting? Oh c’mon, don’t be bitter. He’s so far past the stupid that he’s come back up the other side and re-emerged as a celebrity high-wire performance artist.

#206 Godth on 09.30.15 at 10:25 am

#107 Ralph Cramdown on 09.29.15 at 9:11 pm

Ignorant trolls…

Jane Goodall and Steven Druker Expose US Government Fraud over GMOs
http://sustainablepulse.com/2015/03/04/jane-goodall-steven-druker-expose-us-government-fraud-gmos/#.VgvvTflViko

#207 Nora Lenderby on 09.30.15 at 10:36 am

#124 Sheane Wallace on 09.29.15 at 10:02 pm
<i.Don’t forget those words when you get the cancer boy,

Famously this punchline did not win any argument in the view of the onlookers. But no-one was up for conversion anyway.

On the bright side, we are all more likely to get cancer than to win the lottery.

#208 Smoking Man on 09.30.15 at 10:41 am

Holy Crap Tylenol good post,
but reality is, they’re all phycos, racist, tribesmen in that part of the world.

The leaders in the Arab world and Isreal foster hate amongst there flock. For what, their version of the boggie Man in the sky.

I can find no justification for killing kids of any stripe no matter how it’s spun.

Humanity is one sick spices, lucky for this kid, a Nectonite pretending to be homeless, observing and studying humans came to his rescue.

https://youtu.be/B8p6vu6qXJI

#209 Mister Obvious on 09.30.15 at 10:52 am

#38 I’m stupid

“…if you bought a home with a million in cash I bet you would think twice.”
—————————————–

Unless it was someone else’s cash.

#210 Sheane Wallace on 09.30.15 at 10:52 am

#199 Ralph Cramdown on 09.30.15 at 9:04 am
#124 Sheane Wallace — “Don’t forget those words when you get the cancer boy”

Thanks for the kind words! Of twelve first- and second-generation descendants of my maternal grandparents, I’ve buried four. All from cancer, and younger than 60. All non smokers, very occasional drinkers and, for the most part, ate meat and vegetables that they produced themselves. So I’m guessing I’m susceptible, just like the rats in the flawed study by Séralini. Beats dementia.

————————

Exactly because of that history you should be listening.

There are theories that cancer (in relatively young age) is a vitamin deficiency disease. Driven my modern diet.
GMO is exacerbating it.

#211 Sheane Wallace on 09.30.15 at 10:54 am

#199 Ralph Cramdown on 09.30.15 at 9:04 am

GMO is prohibited in Europe. I wonder why.

#212 Sheane Wallace on 09.30.15 at 10:57 am

#199 Ralph Cramdown on 09.30.15 at 9:04 am

All your relatives probably enjoyed one way or another 30 + years of preservatives in the food, (that yoghurt that lasts 30 + days).

#213 waiting on the westcoast on 09.30.15 at 10:59 am

#148 Mark on 09.29.15 at 11:00 pm
““Many of these will be selling their homes out of necessity.”
To whom? The demographically weaker under-14 crowd? Good luck with that. Just that statistic alone, nevermind the severe overpricing, instability of the credit markets, etc., already guarantees a crash beneath depreciated replacement cost for the Canadian RE market.”

While there may be blood in the streets, not every person will be bleeding. There will be investors, both domestic and international, who will come in and scoop up assets cheap. This will assist in creating a floor for prices at some level.

#214 onpar on 09.30.15 at 11:03 am

Harper is many things: a megalomaniac, a warmonger, a nerd, a fascist… but above all he is a failed economist.

#215 Julie K. on 09.30.15 at 11:18 am

On the heels of the StatsCan report on reality of our aging demographics makes one wonder if the NDP should reconsider their $15/day Child Care promise.

Data seems to support an opportunity to promise $15/day Senior Care.

#BoomersRule

#216 M_S on 09.30.15 at 11:27 am

” The home ownership rate in Canada is 70%, thanks to historically low rates and an epic mountain of mortgage debt. The Conservatives have now pledged to push that to an unprecedented 72.5%”

Well this is going to be bad for Canada in the long run
But it is good for the renters with diversified portfolio. Overbuilding will cause even bigger correction

#217 Smoking Man on 09.30.15 at 11:28 am

#202 Mf on 09.30.15 at 10:08 am
#195 The American on 09.30.15 at 8:48 am

Exactly. See my post at 138. Everyone moans and complains about the us -then runs to it asking for help in times of regional conflict, natural disaster, epidemic, or economic malaise.

Wheres The Tylenol on 09.30.15 at 9:17 am

Hilarious eh? Like I said in my above post, I watched that video posted with Putin talking about what he thought was a failed US policy of arming mercenaries in Libya/Syria/Iraq….all while he is doing the exact same thing in the Ukraine. The sanctions from Ukraine and the lower price of oil have severely hurt the Russian economy. Maybe he should worry about that?

Mf
……..

May the best bull shitter win…

MF you don’t get it, you chose sides, you will never be a great trader until you figure out that all sides have an agenda, a spin designed to separate loot form your wallet.

It’s really difficult to be an un biased observer and capitalize when the moment is right.

Lots of conditioning and programing you need to work out of your mind.

Only then can you appoint yourself as Dr of Herdonomics.

#218 Ralph Cramdown on 09.30.15 at 11:32 am

#206 Godth — “Jane Goodall and Steven Druker Expose […]”

Before you go any further, draw us a Venn diagram showing Jane Goodall’s circle of competence, and Steven Druker’s. Do they even overlap? Now plot the subject that they’re “exposing.” Is it in either circle?

Does “litigator and primate anthropologist opine about genetics and molecular biology” sound persuasive to you?

N.B. Just bought Monsanto, after a long wait. A company that will help feed the world, and make a handsome profit doing it. Good luck.

#219 Smoking Man on 09.30.15 at 11:32 am

It’s all over CNN Russia is not attacking ISIS they are targeting rebels who are after Assad.

Bahahaha.

Propaganda as side, am I the only one, with my trading terminal open and watching crude ready to pounce…

#220 Godth on 09.30.15 at 11:35 am

#203 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09.30.15 at 10:08 am

What a can of worms you’re opening.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gaMNApYKtU

Why are Saudi Arabia and Israel working together these days?

Why is Saudi Arabia encouraged to spread Wahabism through the funding of Madrasas all over the Muslim world since the creation of Al-CIA-duh in the late ’70’s?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYvO3qAlyTg

You may want to revisit your 1948 narrative.
http://www.deiryassin.org/op0010.html

How about that 1969 story?
https://electronicintifada.net/content/new-evidence-1967-war-reveals-israeli-atrocities/14635

It would sure be nice to have some archaeological evidence that King David and/or King Sol Om On ever existed too.

People have been writing historical fiction for a very, very long time. Group think requires it.

12 tribes of Israel, 12 Apostles of Jesus, 12 Knights of the round table…a Bull, a Ram, and a couple of Fish…the precession of the equinoxes? Nah, it’s all literally true like eating rocks.

#221 Housing Bubble? on 09.30.15 at 11:36 am

When the US housing crash happened, very few economists or market observers predicted it’s demise. Yes a few very insightful individuals did, but not many.

Canada is a completely different story. The Great Canadian Housing bubble (so far it hasn’t happened), has been talked about now for 6 years or more. I don’t know how many blogs, across Canada, were dedicated to predicting doom and gloom and gloating about it every day. Hell in Vancouver alone, there must have been 6 alone. they’re all quiet and dead now.

Hedged funds shorting the banks, the OECD, the IMF, S&P, the Economist magazine, the BOC, illustrius economists, etc… all stating how inflated our housing is?

I’m not saying it’s not going to happen, but if it does, it will be the most telegraphed bubble in the history of any financial or investment market.

**DISCLAIMER:
Not a closet realtor.
Don’t have a vested interest in Real Estate.

Have you read ‘The Big Short’? — Garth

#222 Panhead on 09.30.15 at 11:45 am

#199 Ralph Cramdown on 09.30.15 at 9:04 am

So I’m guessing I’m susceptible, just like the rats in the flawed study by Séralini. Beats dementia.
————————————————————
Don’t know if it’s true but once read that Trudeau Sr. was diagnosed with prostate cancer and dimensia. Opted not to be treated for the cancer so he would not suffer the demensia. What a choice to have to make … put’s life in perspective.

#223 Sheane Wallace on 09.30.15 at 11:48 am

#207 Housing Bubble?

Hedged funds shorting the banks, the OECD, the IMF, S&P, the Economist magazine, the BOC, illustrius economists, etc… all stating how inflated our housing is?
…………………
shorting CAD has been working really well lately. It is catch all for the above

#224 Sheane Wallace on 09.30.15 at 11:51 am

#207 Nora Lenderby on 09.30.15 at 10:36 am
#124 Sheane Wallace on 09.29.15 at 10:02 pm
<i.Don’t forget those words when you get the cancer boy,

Famously this punchline did not win any argument in the view of the onlookers. But no-one was up for conversion anyway.

On the bright side, we are all more likely to get cancer than to win the lottery.

……………………..

It was not meant to, I am not looking for endorsement, I am simply the messenger.

#225 Sheane Wallace on 09.30.15 at 11:54 am

#199 Ralph Cramdown on 09.30.15 at 9:04 am

Having experienced cancer bellow 40 in your immediate family makes you start searching for information and thinking.

Than you start eating organic.

#226 Housing Bubble? on 09.30.15 at 11:59 am

Have you read ‘The Big Short’? — Garth
………………….
No, I haven’t read Lewis’s book but I have read a description of it. As I acknowledged, some “very insightful” individuals and investment houses profited beyond belief and correctly foretold the pain that was about to unfold. But the reason that so few made out like bandits, was because it was not publicy adopted by the main stream media or top economists.

In fact many like the Fed and other top economists were denying that US real estate was grossly overvalued.

That’s not at all the situation in Canada. That’s my point.

#227 Housing Bubble? on 09.30.15 at 12:02 pm

#223 Sheane
“shorting CAD has been working really well lately. It is catch all for the above.”
…………………
CAD’s fall has had little to do with real estate so far.

#228 whocaresaboutyourcrusade on 09.30.15 at 12:13 pm

#199 Ralph Cramdown on 09.30.15 at 9:04 am

Than you start eating organic.

‘Than’ you annoy everyone you meet by proselytizing endlessly with no regard for the forum, apparently.

This reminds me of the soap box crusaders in front of my office building. Convincing no-one and wasting their lives for over a decade. To each their own.

#229 Mf on 09.30.15 at 12:18 pm

#217 Smoking Man on 09.30.15 at 11:2

What do you mean I don’t get it? I refute the opposing side because,as you say, I can see the opposing agenda at work. What are you talking about?

Even though you think higher education is a waste (because I am assuming you didn’t do any?), being skeptical of everything you read is a by product. Well in my case it was. Not all “schooled” are zombies. To me it’s obvious what the opposing agenda is. I gotta ask if, you or anyone else, doesn’t like this comfortable life we have in Canada then why are you here?

Now that that is out of the way. You are correct about the difficulty in being an outside unbiased observer. Name me one trader who is unbiased though. Everyone has a strategy with an inherent bias worked into it. Everyone believes that their strategy is superior. You are no different. Think you are the only one betting on an oil rebound? Did Anyone predict oil’s collapse? The conflict in Syria has been going on 5 years now. We also had revolutions in Egypt, Tunisia, a Libyan war, an Israeli work during that time…yet oil prices have cratered. As an unbiased observer, where you able to predict the oil collapse as well?

Mf

#230 Godth on 09.30.15 at 12:22 pm

#218 Ralph Cramdown on 09.30.15 at 11:32 am

I think it’s all within the circle of some of those people that have endorsed the book. I’m out of the circle and I’ll go out on a limb and guess that you are too.

Goodall is on the periphery of the circle and I would guess is privy to conversations that you and I are not. It’s my understanding that lawyers are pretty good at due diligence and to my knowledge Drucker hasn’t been sued yet. Why not?

#231 Network Admin on 09.30.15 at 12:27 pm

#103 In the cold from Toronto on 09.29.15 at 8:57 pm

> Just google “Russian communist apartment blocks”
> and take a look at those images; I am certain nobody
> in their right mind would like to live in such buildings.

See this: http://www.cian.ru/cat.php?region=1&deal_type=2&metro%5B0%5D=126&room1=1&object_type%5B0%5D=1
The lowest price for studio 340 sq feet is 5,000,000 RUB, which is 100,000 CAD.

#232 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09.30.15 at 12:35 pm

#220 Godth on 09.30.15 at 11:35 am

#203 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09.30.15 at 10:08 am

What a can of worms you’re opening.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5gaMNApYKtU

Why are Saudi Arabia and Israel working together these days?

Why is Saudi Arabia encouraged to spread Wahabism through the funding of Madrasas all over the Muslim world since the creation of Al-CIA-duh in the late ’70’s?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYvO3qAlyTg

You may want to revisit your 1948 narrative.
http://www.deiryassin.org/op0010.html

How about that 1969 story?
https://electronicintifada.net/content/new-evidence-1967-war-reveals-israeli-atrocities/14635

It would sure be nice to have some archaeological evidence that King David and/or King Sol Om On ever existed too.

People have been writing historical fiction for a very, very long time. Group think requires it.

12 tribes of Israel, 12 Apostles of Jesus, 12 Knights of the round table…a Bull, a Ram, and a couple of Fish…the precession of the equinoxes? Nah, it’s all literally true like eating rocks.
___________________________________________
Merely trying to point out to SM that children died on all sides, Palestinian, and Israeli. Why are Russia and the United States working together? Why are the United States and Iran working on a understanding? “keep your friends close and your enemies closer” We all make strange bedfellows at one point or another. As for atrocities every country has some. Canada even has a few. Hell if you want to find out who exists or who has existed on this plane of existence then I pose the question, “Are you alive? Are you an sentient being with the faculty of sensation and the power to to perceive, reason and think or an algorithm that autonomously generates responses”?
Perhaps your part of the Matrix? By the way nice work on creating all of us, “I think”.

#233 Nora Lenderby on 09.30.15 at 12:44 pm

#224 Sheane Wallace on 09.30.15 at 11:51 am

A messenger? How nice of you, but why would you bother if, as you say, you’re not looking for “endorsement”.

You seem to get some pleasure from arguing with people on comments here, but persistant repetition doesn’t make you right.

Of course, I could be wrong about that.

#234 fancy_pants on 09.30.15 at 12:54 pm

since this blog started alarming people to believe RE is a bad investment, how much has it gone up? albeit in Garth’s defense, all the equations used were correct; it’s just that the math has changed so common sense no longer works.

Eventually this blog will be correct but the told you so event will be mediocre relative to the lost gains

We are so busy worried about our own backyard we really dont see the danger that is approaching. It will come.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3253789/Isis-planning-nuclear-holocaust-wipe-hundreds-millions-face-earth-claims-reporter-embedded-extremists.html

Try to be correct: I have warned consistently about a one-asset strategy, emphasizing people should own real estate appropriately within the context of their total net worth, and adopt a balanced approach to their overall lives. Argue with that. As for ISIS wiping out humanity, will that affect house prices in YVR? — Garth

#235 Godth on 09.30.15 at 1:00 pm

#232 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09.30.15 at 12:35 pm
“By the way nice work on creating all of us, “I think”.”

Telling ourselves b.s. stories and re-making the world in our own techno-narcissistic image, don’t forget the crystal balls – Godth.

Mau-Mau
http://www.radiolab.org/story/mau-mau/

#236 Bottoms_Up on 09.30.15 at 1:10 pm

#225 Sheane Wallace on 09.30.15 at 11:54 am
——————————————————-
Cancer is a disease with complex etiology. If it wasn’t, we’d all have cancer right now just due to the air we breathe.

But talk to any cancer doctor and they will tell you family genetics plays perhaps the largest role in susceptibility to developing cancer.

So spend your future away eating organic apples that are for all intents and purposes equivalent to non-organic apples, trying to stave off that which you ultimately likely cannot control.

As one of my (cancer) profs once said to me, if you live long enough, you will get cancer. What does this tell you? It is inevitable, although we are each on our own timeline to it.

#237 TheManwhoStaresatSheeple on 09.30.15 at 1:10 pm

Re #200 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol

Putin has an agenda!
Yes, he has one, and it is to protect his people.

Now, you can watch this video and tell me – what the USA agenda is.

https://youtu.be/xi7M_P2ldsQ?t=1m14s

And it is a recent one – so one cannot claims things has changed since…!

#238 Greg on 09.30.15 at 1:14 pm

Hi #199 Ralph Cramdown,

I recall that rat-GMO corn study. The picture were pretty telling!

I also recalled hearing later that the rats were the same type that Monsanto used in there study that concluded GMO was ok to eat, only Monsanto study was only run for just a few months, were as the study finding GMO is bad, ran for a couple years.

The PR from the GMO industry was quick to NOT point that out.

The FDA haven’t run their own study, even to this day, before they Ok’d GMO sale to public in the West.
The FDA just ‘trusted the industry paid for study’ they received. The FDA isn’t claiming it’s safe to eat, just that the GMO industry is saying it’s safe to eat.

For people that may be interested in finding out more (lost on the web of course), this book (title in link) is informative. http://seedsofdeception.com/

Food that is coming from Russia and other countries that have now banned the use and sale of all GMO food is sounding better and better all the time.

#239 BG on 09.30.15 at 1:31 pm

#155 Randy Randerson on 09.29.15 at 11:24 pm

Morpheus did not come to you to reveal some “true reality”.
You are not special or “wild”. You have been raised in the same “zoo” as anybody else.
Whatever view you developed, could have been developed by anybody else.

Beside, you seem to confuse freedom with being constraint free.
Freedom means you get to decide.
Sometimes you may choose some constraints because they help you reach a goal.

#240 TheLaughingCON on 09.30.15 at 1:35 pm

Re # 198 Smoking Man

“On a positive note
Canadian GDP going the right way. Don’t expect a BOC Cut in Oct.
The low rate dollar killing policy seems to be paying off. ”
=================================

Are you sure in that, Mr PhD in Herdonomics

Good title, but beneath the surface are some troubling facts.
And the PhD in Herdonomics should learn to understand what is written between the lines of this “feel good” economic news release. (and not becoming part of the herd themselves)

The “feel good” monthly increases are just that – feel good factor. What counts at the end is the year over year increase.
And never mind that some “components” in that “GDP” and “GDP growth” may not be that positive for the overall health of the economy.

Case in point #1 – the money that the various governments pays for their employees (salaries, pensions, benefits). The money spend by the governments for the above purpose is considered directly spend on purchasing products and services and count towards the GDP.
And with the governments having traditionally more employees compared with a year ago and also the government paying them more NOW (as some of them gained a year in seniority and jumped into a higher pay-category) we will have a “growing” GDP even if all of the other GDP components are stagnant or even slightly down…
But hurrah – we have a GDP growth!!! will proclaim the PhDs in Herdonomics

Case in point #2 – the Canadian are highly indebted and and just recently if not yesterday it was reported that the debt (or a major component of that debt) is growing by 7.7%. The interesting part is that the interest paid to service this monstrous debt load is considered return on capital and as such is counted toward the GDP. So with record high debt load come a record high amount of interest paid to service that debt and hurrah – we have a GDP growth (even if all other GDP components are stagnant or decreasing slightly)

So with the above in mind one can suspect where the “GDP growth” will come – education (major part is public), health care (major part is public), finance and insurance, public services…

Lets see if this assumption is true and compare it with the “feels good” points in the article.

The Stats Canada report is here:
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/150930/dq150930a-eng.htm

1. You can read the actual report and once done you can click on the grayish box labeled “CANSIM tables” in the top left corner just under the title of the report.

2. Click on the table (379-0031)

3. You will see “Gross domestic product (GDP) at basic prices, by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)” but it starts with data for March 2015.

4. Click on the “Add/Remove data” tab, and scroll down to the “Step 5 – Select the time frame”, then adjust the data to start with July 2014 and then click on the “Apply” button under Step 7.

You can compare now how Canada is doing year over year and if this is matching with the “feels good” points from the article.

Lets see for ourselves:

All industries is up by $12.5 Billion (which is good)
but “goods producing” are down by $9.3 Billion (bad) when the “service producing” (government, health care, education, banking …) are up by $22 Billion (who pays for all that…)

More details:
Industrial production is down $3.7 Billion
Durable manufacturing is down $2.2 Billion
Energy sector is down $2.4 Billion
Mining, oil and gas is down $2.5 Billion
Construction is down $4.7 Billion
Manufacturing is down $1.2 Billion

but, but, but…
“The Public sector” is up $3.1 Billion
Finance and insurance is up $7.7 Billion
RE and leasing is up $6.4 Billion
Education is up almost $2 Billion
Health care is up but not even a Billion (not much money left)???
“Pure” Public administration is up only 221 million (but growth is growth is growth)

Canada, enjoy your growing economy!

Take care,
TheLaughingCON, PhD in Herdonomics Destruction

#241 Godth on 09.30.15 at 1:37 pm

#218 Ralph Cramdown on 09.30.15 at 11:32 am
“N.B. Just bought Monsanto, after a long wait. A company that will help feed the world, and make a handsome profit doing it. Good luck.”

You may regret that.
US workers sue Monsanto over ‘cancer-causing’ weed-killer
https://www.rt.com/usa/316995-usa-workers-sue-monsanto-roundup/

Who wouldn’t trust a chemical company with such a stellar history?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-38Bq9lV-U4

Maybe these chemical companies should stop hiding behind patent protection and allow for long term independent epidemiological testing of their seeds?

Higher yields? Superweeds? Resistant pests? Feeding the world what?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/24/usda-gmo-report-idUSL1N0LT16M20140224

http://www.wsj.com/articles/limits-sought-on-gmo-corn-as-pest-resistance-grows-1425587078

#242 Mark on 09.30.15 at 2:06 pm

“While there may be blood in the streets, not every person will be bleeding. There will be investors, both domestic and international, who will come in and scoop up assets cheap. This will assist in creating a floor for prices at some level.”

Of course, but at dramatically lower real prices than we see today. And since houses are somewhat a perishable good, a lot of the older/undesirable stuff is likely to go to zero. This is simply what the demographics tell us — that there will be more housing sold by the >65-year-old crowd, than there will be future under-14-year-olds to buy. And with such a robust capability at this point in bringing new supply to market, and likely another 3-5 years of significant construction unless prices start crashing very quickly, the glut created is likely to be epic.

#243 Ralph Cramdown on 09.30.15 at 2:19 pm

#230 Godth — “I think it’s all within the circle of some of those people that have endorsed the book.”

And had you heard of any of them? I hadn’t. You started off with a comment saying “Jane Goodall and Steven Druker Expose […],” but that isn’t really true. Goodall only wrote the foreword to the book, and appears to have no experience or expertise in the field. The reason you mention her is that nobody’s heard of the author (also with no training in the field) or anyone else who wrote a blurb. N.B. people who write book blurbs typically haven’t read the book, as it hasn’t been published yet. Just so you know. Also, the book is self-published:
http://www.manta.com/c/mb0rc3y/clear-river-press-inc
…not that there’s anything wrong with that, but it ain’t a badge of quality.

So really, it’s a book about genetics written by a lawyer, based on materials he got in discovery in a case he lost in summary judgment (i.e. at the first hurdle). Not that there’s anything wrong with that.

“Goodall is on the periphery of the circle and I would guess is privy to conversations that you and I are not.”

This is a presumption without foundation in fact. On the other hand, she thinks Bigfoot might exist.

“It’s my understanding that lawyers are pretty good at due diligence and to my knowledge Drucker hasn’t been sued yet. Why not?”

Some lawyers are pretty good at writing things that aren’t explicitly libellous. Others don’t have enough assets to make suing them worthwhile. How much time did you actually spend researching whether he’d been sued?

#244 Sheane Wallace on 09.30.15 at 2:23 pm

#227 Housing Bubble?

CAD’s fall has had little to do with real estate so far.
———————————————-
It has to do to some extent with the cuts in rates
More to come.

………………………………
#233 Nora Lenderby

Of course, I could be wrong about that.

Time will tell, time will tell…
………………………………………

#236 Bottoms_Up

They (organic and non organic apples) are not the same for any intends and purposes.
Europe is not banning GMO because they/Europeans are stupid.

Of course if you live long enough you will get cancer (when your immune system dies), but trust me, it matters if it happens to you when you are 40 vs 94.

#245 FitBitKid on 09.30.15 at 2:30 pm

Home ownership forces one to spend less on the JUNK from China… Win Win

#246 IHCTD9 on 09.30.15 at 2:30 pm

#220 Godth on 09.30.15 at 11:35 am

…It would sure be nice to have some archaeological evidence that King David and/or King Sol Om On ever existed too…
____________________________________________

Google Tel Dan Stele. The nation of Judah referred to as “House of David” by a King who lived within 150 years of David. Also mentions a couple other Old Testament Kings of Israel. It’s been available for viewing for the last 21 years. This is about as good as it gets when it comes to archaeological evidence of any kind.

It was displayed at the R.O.M. a few years back. I’ll bet the crowds were massive.

I went to an exhibit years ago at R.O.M. containing artifacts from the Davidic period. It was so choked with people from all walks of life, we barely got into the exhibit. It was pretty amazing, Christians, Muslims, and Jews all jammed shoulder to shoulder into the same building. Only in Canada :).

It is fairly well assured that more of the same will eventually be unearthed…

#247 Vundo on 09.30.15 at 2:42 pm

#242 Mark: the value can never go to zero. Anything within reasonable distance of a viable economic centre will retain value in the land alone. I accept that the correction can be quite drastic in some places, but there will never be nobody willing to own land near Vancouver if the price was right.

#234: you totally miss the point. It is not that RE will crash at any given time. It is that sooner or later, it will, therefore it is insane to literally build our entire lifestyles around getting the biggest mortgage possible to own as much house as possible to the detriment of all other assets. Garth is arguing against insanity, not against owning real estate.

#248 Ralph Cramdown on 09.30.15 at 2:46 pm

#238 Greg — “I recall that rat-GMO corn study. The picture were pretty telling! I also recalled hearing later that the rats were the same type that Monsanto used in there study that concluded GMO was ok to eat, only Monsanto study was only run for just a few months, were as the study finding GMO is bad, ran for a couple years.”

They’re cancer rats. If you let the study run a couple of years, they all get cancer, no matter what you feed them. If you don’t control their food and water intake, they all get cancer even sooner, no matter what you feed them. Guaranteed great pictures, if that’s what you’re looking for.

#249 IHCTD9 on 09.30.15 at 2:58 pm

http://www.radiolab.org/story/mau-mau/
.#236 Bottoms_Up on 09.30.15 at 1:10 pm
#225 Sheane Wallace on 09.30.15 at 11:54 am
——————————————————-
Cancer is a disease with complex etiology. If it wasn’t, we’d all have cancer right now just due to the air we breathe.

But talk to any cancer doctor and they will tell you family genetics plays perhaps the largest role in susceptibility to developing cancer.

So spend your future away eating organic apples that are for all intents and purposes equivalent to non-organic apples, trying to stave off that which you ultimately likely cannot control.

As one of my (cancer) profs once said to me, if you live long enough, you will get cancer. What does this tell you? It is inevitable, although we are each on our own timeline to it.
____________________________________________

This is great news, all my grandparents are dead, all from strokes, heart attacks, and going to sleep. I am using my maternal Grandfather who died just short of 100 as my model for living so as to enjoy a long life as follows:

1. Smoke a Pipe every day.
2. Don’t drink
3. Work your balls off dusk till dawn
4. Be a giant hard-ass
5. Ensure most folks dislike you
6. Eat 2-3 times more than you need to, make sure you are still good and fat on your 98th birthday.
7. Never eat anything other than meat, potatoes, and vegetables. (occasional Rusks adorned with Hagleslag is ok)
8. Eat your big hot meal of the day at Lunch time, not Supper time.
9. If a World War erupts around where you live – if you can’t get out the first time it happens, make sure that you do the second time.

Pertinent to this discussion:
He lived off of food from the garden, and meat from the barn most of his life, and had well water exclusively. Although his wife did the same and was dead in her 80’s (although, she was nice and friendly and didn’t smoke)

#250 Calgary Phantom on 09.30.15 at 3:21 pm

#6 Thinking of moving to Seattle? Do you like rain? Do you like wishy washy people? Do you like inconsistencies? Seattle is nice. To visit. In July when it is sunny. There is a reason Kurt Cobain committed suicide. If you are going to go to the U.S., better is Texas. Housing is a ripoff in Seattle.

On and on this blog goes about mortgage ownership an evil. What do you propose Garth to those in areas with rents the same as mortgages and a reasonably secure job? Rent until retirement? Then what?

This blog goes on and on about the same thing over and over, the sky is falling, etc etc. Is this because the readers are old and need “news” in traditional Global news category to give them enough energy to get off their a$$es and do something? Because if you are happy then you wont do anything?

More of the same…..Pile it high and deep….

The sky is falling….

#251 Smoking Man on 09.30.15 at 3:27 pm

#240 TheLaughingCON on 09.30.15 at 1:35 pm

Proud of you grasshopper, with that brilliant bit of research you have earned a yellow belt in Herdonomics.

Well done.

#252 Nagraj on 09.30.15 at 3:31 pm

#240 TheLaughingCON

This blogdog’s breakdown of Canadian GDP component data is one of the most informative posts I’ve read on this blog. Or anywhere else.

#253 Smoking Man on 09.30.15 at 3:44 pm

#229 Mf on 09.30.15 at 12:18 pm
#217 Smoking Man on 09.30.15 at 11:2

What do you mean I don’t get it? I refute the opposing side because,as you say, I can see the opposing agenda at work. What are you talking about?

Even though you think higher education is a waste (because I am assuming you didn’t do any?), being skeptical of everything you read is a by product. Well in my case it was. Not all “schooled” are zombies. To me it’s obvious what the opposing agenda is. I gotta ask if, you or anyone else, doesn’t like this comfortable life we have in Canada then why are you here?

Now that that is out of the way. You are correct about the difficulty in being an outside unbiased observer. Name me one trader who is unbiased though. Everyone has a strategy with an inherent bias worked into it. Everyone believes that their strategy is superior. You are no different. Think you are the only one betting on an oil rebound? Did Anyone predict oil’s collapse? The conflict in Syria has been going on 5 years now. We also had revolutions in Egypt, Tunisia, a Libyan war, an Israeli work during that time…yet oil prices have cratered. As an unbiased observer, where you able to predict the oil collapse as well?

Mf
…..

Not only did I call it, but even showed everyone how to profit from it.

When USDCAD was at 1.22 told everyone to get an AVA trade contact for difference account, buy 100 contracts and in a few months you’ll be millionears, it’s in the archives.

Two dogs followed my advice and made a million,

Dogs who sent me your P&L do I have permission share?

If so email me. I’ll post on my blog.

MF you should learn to respect your elders and learn. Bitch slapping Nosty for link I’m sure he didn’t read all the way through, man’s at the end of his life, he’s entitled to say what he want’s.

That’s democracy, when topics or opinions are taboo that’s the accent of tyrany. You disagree with someone, debate him.

#254 westcdn on 09.30.15 at 4:18 pm

SM #138

My last sentence in my post yesterday was uncalled and over the top. Sometimes my rants get the better of me. I apologize to you and others I may have offended.

#255 Smoking Man on 09.30.15 at 4:21 pm

Russia parliament green lights troops in Syria.

Reminds me of my childhood, I use to pick on my younger cousin George, I was a bully, can you beilive that. I picked on him all the time.

The prick stated to grow, one day he realized he was a bit taller, I was making fun of him, he said enough enough.

I ended up with a broken nose.

I never picked on George again.

#256 Smoking Man on 09.30.15 at 4:33 pm

Wow, the spin….. Syria is it realy worth it.

Ww3 is on…

Kiss your kids good night, kiss strangers good night.

Russia ain’t backing down, nor is the USA.

Question, who studied San Tuz art of war more.

Mushrooms clouds coming to a town near you…

God please for once make me the laughing stock, make me wrong please…

#257 Bytor the Snow Bitch on 09.30.15 at 4:35 pm

@#195 The Ugly American-

Reading comprehension, get some.

All of the countries on your list asked for Police (AKA MILITARY) intervention, eh?

Grow a brain.

#258 Bottoms_Up on 09.30.15 at 4:56 pm

#241 Godth on 09.30.15 at 1:37 pm
——————————-
No one is debating that high exposure to certain chemicals can cause cancer. The chemical you refer to is call glyphosate. 2 agricultural workers have sued as they believe their exposures caused their cancer. Perhaps. But 2 cases is weak given the scale of likely exposed workers. The lawsuit will not hold up as the evidence is just not there.

The fact of the matter is we have agencies that ensure the protection of health as they regulate to very low levels of exposure.

#259 Bottoms_Up on 09.30.15 at 5:05 pm

#249 IHCTD9 on 09.30.15 at 2:58 pm
——————————
Probably news to you, veggies (organic or not) contain atmospheric deposition of cancerous substances. At higher levels than BBQ’ed meat. This comes from the car and tractor exhaust and fireplaces nearby.

#260 waiting on the westcoast on 09.30.15 at 5:09 pm

#234 fancy_pants on 09.30.15 at 12:54 pm
“since this blog started alarming people to believe RE is a bad investment, how much has it gone up? albeit in Garth’s defense, all the equations used were correct; it’s just that the math has changed so common sense no longer works.
Eventually this blog will be correct but the told you so event will be mediocre relative to the lost gains”

Hate to shatter your delusion… the math still works but the people are irrational. Over time, the trend line will come back and likely overshoot the other way.

Have people (including myself) missed out on this most recent asset lift due to unprecendented cheap $$$ available, YES. Does that mean it was a smart play… maybe if you are a “house trader” and flipped and exited the market with your big stash.

But if you are buying for the long term – the economics of owning has been poor and worse if you don’t leave when the multiples tell you it is time to leave. People that have bought over the past couple of years will be locked in for a long window with significant financial stress over the coming decade. Not exactly a “richer than you think” moment…

#261 TheLaughingCON on 09.30.15 at 5:36 pm

Slightly off-topic but wonder how many people have seen this new research (and cards) regarding our best and worst provincial premiers since 1981:

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/former+ontario+premier+mike+harris+ranked+best+pauline/11400954/story.html#ixzz3nF7dkqpd

http://aha.world/premier-cards/

Ontario’s Mike Harris in number one spot as the best one!

Quebec’s Pauline Marois as the worst one!

Ontario’s McGuinty at the bottom too with Wynne quickly approaching his position!

#262 Godth on 09.30.15 at 5:36 pm

#195 The American on 09.30.15 at 8:48 am

Ground control to Major Tom
https://www.google.ca/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=the%20school%20of%20the%20americas

https://www.google.ca/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=full+spectrum+dominance+US+military

Clueless, not anymore.

http://www.amazon.com/War-Racket-Antiwar-Americas-Decorated/dp/0922915865

http://www.amazon.com/War-Racket-Antiwar-Americas-Decorated/dp/0922915865

http://www.amazon.ca/The-Grand-Chessboard-Geostrategic-Imperatives/dp/0465027261

There’s no excuse for ignorance anymore.

#263 Godth on 09.30.15 at 5:47 pm

#258 Bottoms_Up on 09.30.15 at 4:56 pm

lol, look up regulatory capture. So boring, so brain dead.
The merger of State and Corporations is called what? The Revolving door is called what?Actually we’re moving far beyond that though, it may best be called a Technocracy but we’ll have to watch the last vestiges of Capitalism die first (happening as we speak).

It’s all lunacy. A brave new world. There was a dream in ancient Sumeria of Universal Empire.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zi6wNGwd84g

#264 Bytor the Snow Dog on 09.30.15 at 8:30 pm

#Godth-

Why did you waste your time. “The American” is only gonna believe what he sees on Faux News.

#265 whipster1 on 09.30.15 at 10:17 pm

Maybe Mr. H is hesitant to (in reality) limit foreign investment in real estate because it is seen as a “profitable business” and he agreed to 31 years of allowing China to do such business with little to no interference. ? Likely why he is stalling to even research it…if he really believed he could find out it would have been done already. His hands are tied perhaps because of the FIPA issue a year ago….

“Chinese companies will be able to seek redress against any laws passed by any level of government in Canada which threaten their profits. Australia has decided not to enter FIPA agreements specifically because they allow powerful corporations to challenge legislation on social, environmental and economic issues.”

Full article here : http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/fipa-agreement-with-china-what-s-really-in-it-for-canada-1.2770159

I know you’ll just say this is paranoia ;-)

#266 liquidincalgary on 10.01.15 at 4:27 am

#138 MF on 09.29.15 at 10:48 pm

#72 Bytor the Snow Dog on 09.29.15 at 7:46 pm

You mean the same Americans who drive huge SUV’s and enjoy the fruits of democracy every day. They don’t seem too upset.

As for the world’s policeman. Unfortunately a lot of people actually ask for US assurances. See a history of WW1 and WW2 when the US last tried to be a sleeping giant. Didn’t work out too well did it?

=========================================

to fully engage the US, it took pearl harbour to wake that ‘sleeping giant’

when sir winston requested the canadian pm ask the US for help, the pm was told to relay the message to “just give up to hitler”. it was at that moment that the canadian pm knew what his decision was going to be.

#267 Investorz on 10.01.15 at 4:07 pm

Ira from Gluskin money manager in Toronto says to be rich you either:

1- Marry rich
2- Work in real estate

Says those who call for a housing collapse don’t understand that 50,000 new immigrants coming to Toronto will keep prices up. Oh snap.

http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=717555