A little screwed

BABY1

Andrew just bought a condo in DT Calgary. Poor Andrew. Unlucky in love, now horny over property.

“A few years ago my life changed and I stopped owning a house (along with a wife and a couple dogs, I really miss the dogs) but with my divorce winnings (I mean home equity buyout) I put down a deposit on a condo. Seemed like a good idea at the time; shortly after I found your blog which I’ve been following ever since,” he says. “The logical side of me regrets buying the condo (since renting is cheaper) but the emotional side is excited for it as its a pretty sweet condo in downtown Calgary (which as a single guy can only help my cause).”

This is a small lesson in delusion. It goes to the federal election coming up in 26 days, because people will make themselves believe just about anything, in the face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.  For example, Andrew works in the oil sands, a fly-in-fly-out guy who should know that on days like Tuesday (oil lost another 2% of its value) he has the job security of a gnat.

Second, buy in Calgary in the autumn of 2015? What’s he thinking? Sales are way down (off 33.5% this week year/year), prices are starting to slide (the average is now 5% lower) and housing starts are a disaster. Last month new house construction plunged 30%, according to the Conference Board of Canada. In short, the real estate plop has only just started in Alberta as more sellers realize crude ain’t coming back soon, nor the jobs it swept away.

Third, hormonal little Andrew (he’s 28) tells me he’s trading a rented condo costing $1,500 a month all-in for a $370,000 unit that will drain $2,000, not including property tax or utilities – in which he plans to live only 50% of the time when not up in Fort Misery. So there you have it – converting cash into a combination of debt and eroding equity at a time when the economy is sagging and jobs blowing up.

But Andy reads this pathetic blog: “It was always my intent to put down another 10% on the condo to get rid of cmhc fees and lower my monthly payment but with mortgage rates currently so low I’m starting to think I should use that money (37k) to max out my rrsp, beef up my tfsa and pay off my motorcycle.” At least the bike goes fast and vibrates.

I hold up this young dude as today’s example of why we’re a little screwed. Collectively, we’re making risky choices. The house lust continues unabated – in fact it’s picked up speed. The descent into debt is unprecedented – in fact I expect more, now that everyone believes interest rates can never rise. And voting intentions among the sub-35 cohort show a serious tilt to the left, in the belief the country can tax and spend its way forward. After all, this is what they’re being told. Similar happened in Alberta when the NDP won a historic election there.

Against this, lie some ugly facts.

For example, in the Conservatives’ last budget – the one on which all the parties are basing their projections – economic growth was pegged at 2% for 2015. In reality, it will (maybe) be half that. “For this year as a whole, we think the economy will be lucky to grow by 1.0%, possibly falling just short of this,” says economist David Madani.  “What’s more, if our fundamental concerns about the overvalued and overbuilt housing market begin to play out next year, then growth next year won’t be any better.”

What does this mean? Simply, nobody can believe anything in the economic promises of the NDP, the Libs or the Cons. The numbers are outdated.

Thus, if Mr. Harper is reelected and maintains the status quo, there’ll be no surplus unless the economy rebounds, which is doubtful. Instead, the deficit should be about $4 billion per year (including this one). If Mr. Mulcair is elected, promising over $4 billion in additional spending all to be paid for with higher corporate taxes, there will still be a $4 billion deficit, plus pissed-off employers. If Mr. Trudeau is elected, his forecast of a $10 billion annual deficit will be something closer to $15 billion, and he will have increased taxes on companies and higher-income individuals in the process.

But there’s another problem Andy knows all about (or should). Oil. The stuff is currently trading around $45 a barrel and is under pressure as commodity prices sit at 16-year lows. Several credible forecasters say the bottom is somewhere between $20 and $30, with recovery to take years. But the Conservative budget of just six months ago (which all parties are using) predicted crude would soar to $75 a pop in a little over a year. Oops.

So chew on that. Economic growth 50% less than forecast and the price of our major export 40%  under the estimate. What else could go wrong? Oh yeah, a housing correction, with rising mortgages as bond yields swell, plus more layoffs. And did I mention that since last July the number of Albertans collecting employment pogey has increased by 72.2%? Or that a survey of business confidence released Tuesday finds most Albertan entrepreneurs now believe things are getting worse?

If you think this is the time for more tax, well, meet Andy. He’s confused, too.

The ATB Business and Economy Indexes (CNW Group/ATB Financial)

The ATB Business and Economy Indexes (CNW Group/ATB Financial)

203 comments ↓

#1 Edward on 09.22.15 at 5:46 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/http-www-cbc-ca-news-business-hillary-clinton-opposes-building-keystone-pipeline-1-3239215-1.3239215

#2 Randy on 09.22.15 at 5:47 pm

It’s hard to be optimistic in the short run.

#3 Paul A. on 09.22.15 at 5:53 pm

ok so i think we should collectively get it …… Fasten your seat belts this will be a bumpy ride

#4 Dave's my hero. on 09.22.15 at 5:53 pm

“says economist David Madani. “What’s more, if our fundamental concerns about the overvalued and overbuilt housing market begin to play out next year”
————————–
He’s been wrong for 7 years. Hey why not double down again.

#5 GaryBlack on 09.22.15 at 5:55 pm

Hi Garth,

You’ve been predicting these falling house prices since 2008. I guess sooner-or-later you’ll be correct with your forecast.

Actually they are falling in Alberta, as referenced. — Garth

#6 Edith on 09.22.15 at 5:56 pm

SFH’s in Vancouver just keep getting rarer.

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/million+dollar+land+assemblies+speculate+zoning+changes/11380019/story.html

#7 Randy on 09.22.15 at 5:59 pm

“And voting intentions among the sub-35 cohort show a serious tilt to the left, in the belief the country can tax and spend its way forward.”
———————————————————-
Newsflash – I ain’t paying any more taxes than I’m already paying. If you want the government to spend more it is just getting added to your bill.

#8 Eddie on 09.22.15 at 6:03 pm

Victoria and Vancouver building permits hit record.

https://www.biv.com/article/2015/9/bc-building-permits-hit-new-record-july/

#9 LifeAccordingToGarth on 09.22.15 at 6:04 pm

Do you wanna bet that we see QE4 before we see 4% Prime interest rate?

#10 Smartalox on 09.22.15 at 6:04 pm

CMHC premiums are calculated based on the ratio of the value of the loan to the value of the property.

The value of the property fluctuates with the market; if you’re lucky, the value of the property goes up, and you make your payments, so the value of the loan goes down, along with the LTV.

If you’re unlucky, and the value of the property goes down, the LTV goes up, and either CMHC charges you again for insurance when you go to renew your mortgage, or the bank hits you for a balloon payment to get your LTV back in line before okaying your renewal.

Dump that extra 10% into your TFSA! You’ll make a few bucks in interest, and you’ll be able to tap that cash if you need it when it’s time to renew your mortgage.

#11 Mf on 09.22.15 at 6:10 pm

Andy is more or less a typical example of my cohort, which might be the dumbest ever.

Largely finacially illiterate, believe housing can only go up, and mostly left leaning politically. What do these people believe will happen to housing if the ndp were to get elected? Jobs?

Hate to say it, but above all else Andy’s biggest mistake was getting married too early.

Mf

#12 Fire Jim Benning on 09.22.15 at 6:11 pm

This is mildly out of place, but Luca Sbisa just isn’t an NHLer. And housing prices are far too high in Vancouver.

#13 Yaroslav on 09.22.15 at 6:14 pm

Garth, the Alberta NDP hasn’t even had an opportunity to try to “tax and spend” its way forward. Nor have they had time to even table a budget yet.

That you claim to know so much about the Alberta NDP’s policies (and future outcomes) shows your bias, and undermines your arguments in general.

Those of us who actually live in the province of Alberta don’t even know where the NDP provincial government is going, or how they are going to get there. That information hasn’t been released yet, and it hasn’t been in the media. The NDP Finance Minister (Joe Ceci) is still taking the time to mull over the books before releasing any numbers or strategy.

Garth, your arguments seem to be based less and less on hard facts, and more and more on a dislike of anything that threatens your holy TFSAs, or the status quo.

(For years, the federal Liberals were always referred to as “Tax and Spend Liberals. In reality, Harper’s Conservatives have done far more “tax and spend” in the last 10 years than any Liberal federal government in the last 20 years). Mull that for a moment, before you criticize Mulcair or Notley.

My words were: “And voting intentions among the sub-35 cohort show a serious tilt to the left, in the belief the country can tax and spend its way forward. After all, this is what they’re being told. Similar happened in Alberta when the NDP won a historic election there.” Where is that statement incorrect? Or are you just insecure? — Garth

#14 Rational Optimist on 09.22.15 at 6:16 pm

145 Mark on 09.22.15 at 2:51 pm

‘“However, I believe I read that the Libs are going to reinstate the inflation adjustment so that the value can keep rising gradually.”

Given that deflation, not inflation, is a far more likely path for the future, the assumption can be made that it is the intent of the Liberals to shrink the TFSA.’

Ugh. What a thin ‘reason’ to bring up asinine predictions of deflation. Very little that is indexed to inflation goes the other way in the rare instances of deflation, and the TFSA wasn’t (and would not be) any exception.

There is no deflation. There is no hyperinflation. There is modest inflation for the time being. I think the poster’s point about the Tories’ removing inflation indexing to the TFSA was a decent one- as it stands, our TFSA contribution room increased, and now will decrease.

It will decrease in real terms, not nominal terms, because there is no deflation. And won’t be.

#15 BC Guy on 09.22.15 at 6:17 pm

Saudi Arabia gets 90% of it’s income from oil revenue, which has dropped 50% this year. They are hurting as much as Alberta.

The pressure is on Saudi Arabia from other OPEC countries to cut production and raise prices. Just a matter of time …

I heard that last year. — Garth

#16 Tiger on 09.22.15 at 6:19 pm

The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine is a non-fiction book by Michael Lewis about the build-up of the housing and credit bubble during the 2000s.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWr8hbUkG9s

Best part is at the end of the movie- “Why do mean i can’t finance on all my loan,i have 5 houses and a condo”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Big_Short

#17 Randy Randerson on 09.22.15 at 6:20 pm

Time for me to re-read Harry Browne’s “How I Found Freedom In An Unfree World.”

#18 Tiger on 09.22.15 at 6:22 pm

The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine is a non-fiction book by Michael Lewis about the build-up of the housing and credit bubble during the 2000s.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Big_Short

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LWr8hbUkG9s

Best part is at the end of the movie- “Why do mean i can’t finance on all my loan,i have 5 houses and a condo”

#19 iskandar on 09.22.15 at 6:24 pm

Harper’s words “you won’t recognize Canada when I’m done with it”. I think we should give him another four years to complete his mission of making Canada the Zimbabwe of North America.

#20 A Nobody on 09.22.15 at 6:26 pm

All the problems with job layoffs in Alberta just mean more people flying into Toronto looking for work… And housing.

Up we go again for house prices.

The GTA really is different and invincable

#21 Londoner on 09.22.15 at 6:27 pm

In your prediction for higher mortgage rates by Thanksgiving do you mean the Canadian one or the American one?

#22 Nemesis on 09.22.15 at 6:29 pm

#ThematicallyApropos… #InterMezzoForA… #SunnyAfternoon…

https://youtu.be/VLs09J_x6-c

#23 One more economic shock... on 09.22.15 at 6:33 pm

One more outside shock and our economy will be in more trouble than it is.

One may be China free falling again and that will hit the BC economy and worsen the AB economy.

Another may be higher interest rates next month in the US and there goes real estate, our last large GDP sector that is growing.

Yet another may be more instability in the Middle East oil countries due to war.

And another shock may be the election of a left leaning government which will stop corporate investment until the new rules playbook is revealed.

One more shock and we are in trouble including real estate. Garth’s predictions will seem understated then.

#24 Cory on 09.22.15 at 6:34 pm

The Fed cowered. The economy is not good if they do not feel they an raise even a mere 25bps.

If they do not raise this year now then they should stop talking about it….they are creating the market uncertainties everyone is experiencing now.

Too bad our…any….politicians/bank heads don’t have guts anymore. They want to be all things to all people all in pursuit of power to feed their sociopathic and narcissistic needs. Lee Iacocca wondered aloud, and in his book, “Where have all the Leaders Gone”. Out of all of them running today, I see none that are worthwhile to vote for. No wonder voter apathy reigns supreme.

A rate increase looks less likely now that they caved on a Sept hike. I would like rates to rise but as suspected, they painted themselves into a corner and don’t know how to get out.

#25 kilby on 09.22.15 at 6:38 pm

My twenty something children who both vote will vote for anybody but the Conservatives, yes, they don’t care about the TSFA limits or the F-35….. A Green and an NDP I think. Joking yesterday with my wife I said that with so many arguing about how much they hate Mulcair and the little king that Trudeau will come out the default winner next month. Shame about the selection we have.

#26 Freedom First on 09.22.15 at 6:44 pm

Andrew Andrew Andrew. You have already been bopped over the head. But you got off lucky. However, your thinking in every area of your life will be your downfall. For your sake, you need help. A lot of help. Trust me.

#27 Porsche on 09.22.15 at 6:50 pm

Fort Misery

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2015/09/22/hillary-clinton-comes-out-against-keystone-xl-pipeline.html

#28 Vanecdotal on 09.22.15 at 6:53 pm

“And voting intentions among the sub-35 cohort show a serious tilt to the left, in the belief the country can tax and spend its way forward.”

I may have interesting, albeit anecdotal insight why droves of sub-boomers are tilting “left”.

True story: A Libertarian, an Orphan Progressive-Centrist(?), and a retired Harper Con MP walk into a bar…

Not long ago my friend and I found ourselves sharing wine and conversation with a long serving, now retired HarperGov MP at a VIP event. The man was gracious and engaging. Conversation lively. Steered clear of politics myself (in spite of SO wanting to drop the “so whaddaya think of Garth Turner-He Who Shall Not Be Named?”) – I didn’t. Kept it light, but worked in a few ah-general queries on the status quo, couldn’t help myself.

What struck me was this almost cult-like adulation of Herr Harper. This absolute, unquestioning belief that he stood for Everything Canadian, Everything for the Greater Good, was Truly a Visionary, Best Interests of the People, etc. The man truly seemed to believe in what he was saying, that that NeoCon mandate is in the Best Interest of All Canadians, even if they didn’t really understand it. Hard for friend & I to keep our mouths shut, but we did, and excused ourselves after a while, before the wine loosened lips past the point of good manners.

It really was a fascinating peek into the mind shaped by that ideology, under that leader. He echoed some of your core beliefs Garth, which I expected. The reason younger gen’s want radical change is that they (GEn X, & Y majority) are absolutely INVISIBLE to this party. This fellow is a 1%er, and the conversation centered around first world problems I can’t even relate to.

Yes, plenty of 1%ers in the Liberal and NDP camps steering policy as well, am fully aware, and not impressed. I do n’t believe NDP will balance the budget, pure politicking, nor do I want an idealistic, inexperienced trust fund baby steering our ship. Green, while not perfect, was the most appealing to me, until I found out our green candidate is a project manager for one of Canada’s largest RE developers. Conflict of interest anyone? This is the only party on record as saying the housing bubble needs to be pierced. Conflict of interest much, WTF?! HELLO GREEN PARTY lurkers, vet your candidates better please.

So I can either spoil my ballot or not vote at all, which equals a de fact vote for the incumbent. (No thanks), or I can vote “least awful”, (NDP?), or strategically ABH.Awful choices all the way around. First past the post needs a re-think. 2 term limit please while it gets re-thunk.

This is why the pendulum is swinging so radically, and why the Cons can’t get traction with younger voters. Even those trickle-down believers who seem to be of solid integrity, and decent human beings (like yourself, truly don’t seem to even understand on the most basic level, much less RELATE to, the lives of average working Canadians. They are operating in another universe. Just my 2¢.

#29 IKnow on 09.22.15 at 6:57 pm

Repeat after me, house prices in vancouver have nothing to do with Canada fundamentals, it tracks Hong Kong and maybe Beijing. As long as hkers are still paying $1M CAD for a 400sqft shoe box in rote suburb then that is the support here. $2M Sfh in urban Vancouver is an unthinkable bargain by that metric.

They are ranking about a correction there now, maybe 5% off so far. But only until prices there go down 30% or more, no chance for correction here. And tons of money in Vancouver on the side line waiting for that fanciful 20% correction to happen.

#30 rawdiswar on 09.22.15 at 6:59 pm

Ok Garth, by now I think most of your readers get the point.

So how do we profit from all the impending heartache and strife that will surely occur? I would say short the banks, but they’ll inevitably get a tax payer funded bailout.

And anyone calling it cruel to profit off a bubble burst needs to grow a pair.

#31 jess on 09.22.15 at 7:00 pm

three lies about finance …but what about the liars?

21 September 2015
Remarks given at the Harvard Club UK Southwark Cathedral dinner, London.
LIE I: “THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT”
LIE II: “MARKETS ALWAYS CLEAR”
LIE III: “MARKETS ARE MORAL”

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/2015/843.aspx

#32 Vanecdotal on 09.22.15 at 7:03 pm

#8 Eddie/Edith realtroll™

Yes, Spec-U-Vestor and foreign $ fueled. Cranky FINTRACcers. Cranky foreign gov co’s hunting stolen loot. Cranky Moonbeamer. Quiet Premier.

Median Van family income @ $70k. Seems totally sustainable.

#33 Godth on 09.22.15 at 7:10 pm

blah, blah, blah, who gives a shit? It’s all exponential curves and the laws of thermodynamics from here on in Garthy-baby. Waahhh, first world problems – the world doesn’t fit my model!

#34 Confused on 09.22.15 at 7:12 pm

It was stated on here that you buy an etf for yield. But if the unit value drops, how are you farther ahead?

If you buy an asset that pays you 5%, for example, why would you care about a temporary decline in capital value? If you bought for capital gain, you bought badly. — Garth

#35 cramar on 09.22.15 at 7:15 pm

This will not end well for Andy.
This will not end well for Albertans.
This will not end well for Canadians after the election.

#36 Godth on 09.22.15 at 7:18 pm

Let’s have a good old fashioned war! That’s the manly thing to do. Send the boys and girls out to fight and I’ll sit back and place my bets. There’s money to be made.

#37 TurnerNation on 09.22.15 at 7:20 pm

Stoning us…they need to raise money for basic 1st World infra?
What of the 50% of gas price that is taxes, Ontario income tax, all property taxes, auto fees and taxes? Where is being siphoned off too?
I know…every project I’ve seem is overbudget (a few new subway stations in Toronto, Queen’s Quay redevelopment, Pan-Scam games, and so on) with fat contracts and public union excesses.

The party elite – those couples together earning 200k living on public service union jobs,sunshine list – can afford Toronto houses. The rest get 500sq foot condos.

“Wynne later defended it, saying the $9 billion from selling a 60-per-cent stake in the utility will raise money for transit and infrastructure, including “roads and bridges in rural Ontario,” and debt reduction.”

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/09/22/hydro-one-privatization-plan-stands-on-shaky-ground-wynne-rivals-say.html

#38 Eddie on 09.22.15 at 7:21 pm

#32 Vanecdotal

“Median Van family income @ $70k. Seems totally sustainable.”
———————-
Do you really believe it’s the $70,000 household families who are buying $1,000,000+ houses?

Vanectodal=Victoria Housing Update

#39 IHCTD9 on 09.22.15 at 7:31 pm

“If Mr. Trudeau is elected, his forecast of a $10 billion annual deficit will be something closer to $15 billion…”
___________________________________________

20 Billion – minimum.

If Trudeau resembles the McGuinty/Wynne Liberal disaster in Ontario even slightly, factor in a few more billion on additional public sector compensation, and 10 or so billion more for scandals.

Be careful if he starts saying stuff like no new money for [X], Libs seem to have a thing for semantics…

#40 canuck on 09.22.15 at 7:34 pm

#13 Yaroslav on 09.22.15 at 6:14 pm

Those of us who actually live in the province of Alberta don’t even know where the NDP provincial government is going, or how they are going to get there. That information hasn’t been released yet, and it hasn’t been in the media. The NDP Finance Minister (Joe Ceci) is still taking the time to mull over the books before releasing any numbers or strategy

____________________________________________

…and that doesn’t concern you?

Don’t worry, we see your bias quite easily.

#41 dutch4505 on 09.22.15 at 7:40 pm

I wonder how ATB (Alberta Treasury Branches) is doing? A provincial financial institution with high exposure in oil and gas along with residential real estate. It was not that long ago the provincial conservatives had to pump in money to ATB’s balance sheet. (done quietly) I am sure they will receive provincial support from the NDP.

#42 MSM-Free Zone on 09.22.15 at 7:46 pm

“…….Similar happened in Alberta when the NDP won a historic election there………”
_________________________

In retrospect, the Alberta (C)onservatives, not be confused with true (c)onservatives, won a historic rejection.

#43 MSM-Free Zone on 09.22.15 at 7:51 pm

“….Simply, nobody can believe anything in the economic promises of the NDP, the Libs or the Cons……”
_________________________

Can’t argue with that.

Always a pleasure to read the truth here, instead of blatant, MSM ideologically-blinded partisanship.

#44 gladiator on 09.22.15 at 7:52 pm

Just for fun, go to this link and scroll down to Key Industries.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Canada

There you go.

#45 TRT on 09.22.15 at 7:52 pm

Haha, Conservatives won’t be supported by any party?

Looks like the author of this blog is upset.

At what? I’m not running. — Garth

#46 Greg Seybien on 09.22.15 at 7:55 pm

My friend said I should get an investment loan for $50,000 and get Bell Canada strip bonds for $20.00 each and in my non-registered account.

He said I can deduct all the interest every year from the investment loan which is currently $1,625 a year compared to the first years interest of $2,562.50.

However, he showed me on a spreadsheet that the interest earned will grow each year as a $50,000 will mature to $250,000 by 2047-December-1 having a 5.125% Yield to maturity.

The average compound interest per year is $6,211.80 on the Bell strip bonds so even if interest rates jump on the investment loan from currently 3.25% to 5.25%, $2,625 interest paid per year, there is still an annual, net interest margin of $3,586.80.

#47 omg the original on 09.22.15 at 7:56 pm

Talking to my bro-in-law in S’tooner the other day.

He tells me one of his kids just bought a place 1/2 hour OUTSIDE S’tooner for $450k!!!!!

Nice house, new construction 4 Bed with full unfinished basement but really $450K???

(Now for those of you in TO, YYC or YVR 30 minutes sounds like nothing, but in S’tooner, where anywhere in the city is 12 minutes away, 30 minutes is a forever commute.)

This is yet another indicator that Canada’s housing market is unhinged from reality.

Let me count the ways why you delusion naysayers.

1) don’t get me wrong I love the S’tooner, or S’toner as I recall it growing up there. BUT S’toon is a friggin mini city in the middle of FRIGGIN’ NOWHERE – someplace dusty prairie village 1/2 hour away is not even in a galaxy close to somewhere.

2) of course I am told S’tooner is “where the JOBS are” – what?? – like you are forgetting mining is in the dumps, potash is risking over capacity with all the new mines coming on and the province’s finiances are taking a hit from oil revenues being down. Ok there is the Univiersity and a smattering of high tech, I’ll give you that.

3) when interest rates rise – which they inevitably will – who will want to support a $400k mortgage in some dinky backwater town 30 minutes from the closest Timmy’s.

But WTF I am just some old fart that has seen up and down housing markets in Canada at least 3 times before – I could be wrong – at least my nephew best hope I am.

#48 Doomsday Prepper on 09.22.15 at 7:56 pm

Funny Garth, you tell B.C. Guy (#15) that you “heard that last year”… Yet you’ve been preaching the same thing for SEVERAL YEARS! What a hypocrite you are!
Love your blog though… But Harperman has got to go!

My response was factual. Oil patch boosters have been claiming an early rebound when every data point tells us otherwise. Now how is that hypocritical? Maybe you should look that word up, son. — Garth

#49 Vanecdotal on 09.22.15 at 7:59 pm

#38 Eddie

Um, sarcasm? You reinforce my point. That it’s NOT sustainable, NOT local families currently propelling SFH price increases in Metro Van. They are largely priced out.

.. and no, not VHU. Am however an impartial local observer paying attention.

#50 vanreal on 09.22.15 at 8:02 pm

What I don’t understand is why places like Calgary and Ft MacMurray had high housing prices to begin with. It’s certainly not due to a shortage of land which means it must have been due to supply. That is easily fixable either by building more and by people leaving. It looks like the latter is happening and that’s why Calgary housing is going lower. There is nothing exceptional about either location other than they were close to oil. Their days are numbered. Toronto and Vancouver on the other hand are really the only two places in the country that are true urban centres. Montreal doesn’t count because of its unattractiveness to the bulk of immigrants that want to speak English. Vancouver and Toronto are highly desirable each for its own reason and therefore either won’t drop or won’t drop easily like Calgary.

#51 omg the original on 09.22.15 at 8:04 pm

#34 Confused on 09.22.15 at 7:12 pm
It was stated on here that you buy an etf for yield. But if the unit value drops, how are you farther ahead?
———————-

Seriously man, get some basic investing books and do some reading – don’t expect to get turnkey financial advice from a free blog.

Fro example your question indicates you misunderstand ETFs.

There are hundreds of ETFs and they come in dozens upon dozens of flavours. Most you do not by for “yield” – expectations of returns and risks really depends on the type of ETF you are buying.

#52 Daisy Mae on 09.22.15 at 8:06 pm

#19: “Harper’s words “you won’t recognize Canada when I’m done with it”. I think we should give him another four years to complete his mission of making Canada the Zimbabwe of North America.”

********************

Well, we were warned. We just didn’t heed that warning. There’s much more to this than just economics. Harper is dangerous….and we’d better start paying attention.

#53 ANON on 09.22.15 at 8:15 pm

#30 rawdiswar on 09.22.15 at 6:59 pm
So how do we profit from all the impending heartache and strife that will surely occur? I would say short the banks, but they’ll inevitably get a tax payer funded bailout.
And anyone calling it cruel to profit off a bubble burst needs to grow a pair.

True. Skirmishing at the bank, to be the among first to promise the impossible and profit the most from a head start in the bubble is the exact same thing. Profiting from the burst should not be moralized either (and you get the bonus of not participating in the melee), but it is, as most things are. It is the way of the world, it can’t be helped, it should not be fought either. World changers are a penny a dozen.
Alas, profits will be hard to come by when promises are broken (yeah, wealth is debt, always was, it should be crystal clear for everyone by now, or you’re not really paying attention), the key is to at least hold on to some of the remaining promises, and not be bound by promises to others, especially if they are bigger and badder than you, and they have friends who are ready to back them up. ;)

#54 Bytor the Snow Dog on 09.22.15 at 8:20 pm

#28 Vanecdotal- I’m having a hard time understanding “those who cannot see” as well. Intelligent people seemingly blinded by ideology.

#55 bigtown on 09.22.15 at 8:22 pm

The inflation we all imagined would never show up despite the low loonie has arrived. I did my WINNERS stop today to pick up my bag of STARBUCKS coffee for 7.99 and as I was paying at the cash the reusable bags normally on display were at $1.50….not the .99 they have been for years. My word, a 50% increase. My hippie background will help me deal with this scrimping business. I remember back in the 70`s when being poor was cool so I am not disturbed and see the new prices as a competition to see how little I can spend.

#56 Retired business owner on 09.22.15 at 8:22 pm

If you buy an asset that pays you 5%, for example, why would you care about a temporary decline in capital value? If you bought for capital gain, you bought badly. — Garth

Can’t argue with that. That’s why I read this blog.
Thanks

#57 Blacksheep on 09.22.15 at 8:24 pm

Garyblack # 5,

“Hi Garth,

You’ve been predicting these falling house prices since 2008. I guess sooner-or-later you’ll be correct with your forecast.”
——————————————————-
Garth’s already been vindicated.

But blind patriotism, is clouding the view of the big picture.

Try thinking more like a Corporation, where borders mean nothing and $’s flow back and forth, freely.

The reserve currency of the world, IS the US $.
The real world value of Oil / Gold, IS measured in US $.
The real world value of Canadian RE, IS also, measured in US $’s.

Anyone holding immobile assets in Canadian $’s has already lost 25% of it’s real world value in the past 2 years.

And no…hiding inside Canada, will not stop inflation from finding you.

#58 Eddie on 09.22.15 at 8:25 pm

#49 Vanecdotal

“.. and no, not VHU.”
——————-
I didn’t say that you and VHU were the same person, just alike. You have many things in common – uninformed, boring and there’s few who read your made up spew.

#59 Brian Ripley on 09.22.15 at 8:30 pm

“The descent into debt is unprecedented…” Garth

I just published a mashup of CBC’s James Fitz-Morris video examination of debt-to-income levels for the average Canadian family and charts on U.S. home ownership dropping back down to the 1980’s levels as well as a study on the under reporting of consumer debt:

http://www.chpc.biz/history-readings/unrecognized-unsecured-debt

If debt levels are under reported in the U.S. it’s probably a similar failure in Canada as well.

#60 Vanecdotal on 09.22.15 at 8:30 pm

#57 Eddie

Slow day on the condo flogging floor Eddie/Edith?

Stay classy.

#61 JSS on 09.22.15 at 8:34 pm

I don’t know what to believe.

Both West Edmonton Mall, and Southgate Mall in Edmonton are p-a-c-k-e-d to the nuts every time I go there. People buying shit like there’s no tomorrow. Wife’s facebook friends who live in tony SW Edmonton suburbs are still living in the same 3500 sf walkout cul-de-sac homes, and driving them Lexus RX SUV’s. Not everyone in Alberta is an oil patch worker. Her friend’s (some hot soccer moms – look like they do lots of aerobics) and their husbands have good jobs like prof, dentists, doctors, pharmacist owners, etc. These families are freakin’ loaded. And yes, there’s lots of them here.

I see NO change in house prices, vehicle prices, clothing, etc. in Edmonton. Looks the same to me like it did from 5 years ago. I’d love to see a correction, just to take the smugness of these people. Guess we’ll wait and see.

Edmonton house sales were down 5.6% year/year last month with no price growth. — Garth

#62 John in Mtl on 09.22.15 at 8:36 pm

#17 Randy Randerson on 09.22.15 at 6:20 pm

Time for me to re-read Harry Browne’s “How I Found Freedom In An Unfree World.”

Read that book over the summer. Geez, I wish I had found it in my 20’s. Oh well, its never too late.

#63 Freedom First on 09.22.15 at 8:39 pm

#11 Mf

Nice Post, but it needs editing:

Andy’s biggest mistake was getting married. Fixed. No charge.

#64 Patrick on 09.22.15 at 8:45 pm

“And voting intentions among the sub-35 cohort show a serious tilt to the left, in the belief the country can tax and spend its way forward.”
____________________________________________

If there was ever a demographic that should be voting conservative or at least leaning more right with their views, it’s the millennials. Who do they think will be footing the enormous health care bill for the aging, retiring boomers?

I’m part of the sub-35 cohort, we grew up with universal health care, it was nice. But it just doesn’t make sense as a generation to continue down this path.

It will cost us more then we will benefit from it. And it has nothing to do with ideology or political stances, it’s just math. But given our crappy public-education system and poor math scores, I’m not surprised.

#65 Confused on 09.22.15 at 8:45 pm

Seriously man, get some basic investing books and do some reading – don’t expect to get turnkey financial advice from a free blog.

Fro example your question indicates you misunderstand ETFs.

There are hundreds of ETFs and they come in dozens upon dozens of flavours. Most you do not by for “yield” – expectations of returns and risks really depends on the type of ETF you are buying.

Sorry if I upset you. Some people come here to get an education. The [email protected] said you lose the management of your money in a down market with an ETF

I got the impression you buy them for yield and not capital gains. If you know a good book, website I am looking for a starting point.

I appreciate the response Garth, thank you

#66 Mark on 09.22.15 at 8:46 pm

“The average compound interest per year is $6,211.80 on the Bell strip bonds so even if interest rates jump on the investment loan from currently 3.25% to 5.25%, $2,625 interest paid per year, there is still an annual, net interest margin of $3,586.80.”

The long-run average of Canadian T-Bills going back to 1954 is approximately 5.4%. Certainly you’re going to pay a spread above that, so make it even 7%/annum for the long-term cost of funding a position on a margin account.

Is investing in a 5.4%/annum fully taxable obligation paying an average of 7%/annum interest a winning proposition?

Personally, I don’t think so. And going out 32 years from now, you have to assume that the economy will have gone through at least a good chunk of the next interest rate cycle.

Basically what I’m saying is that you’re already at a huge disadvantage by being a small investor, with relatively disadvantaged access to credit. You’re probably paying some pretty hefty embedded brokerage commissions to buy the Bell bonds. You have no diversification. The long-term predicted outcome of your position is negative cash flow.

Could you win in the short term though? Absolutely. But why not skew the odds a little more in favour of yourself by just buying the sort of balanced portfolio that Garth advocates here? Its probably even a lot safer and better returning to (moderately) leverage the “Garth” portfolio than it is to concentrate yourself in the corporate bonds of one issuer.

#67 prairie person on 09.22.15 at 8:48 pm

Eddy #8
Thanks for the post. Good to know that my observations are not wrong. Everywhere I go there are houses and condos being built. Places that have been up for a while are sold out. It’d be interesting to know where the buyers are coming from. I don’t get the impression that is HAM or Germans. When the Canadian dollar was done before, a lot of Americans bought, particularly on the islands. They then sold when the Canadian dollar went up. Now, they may be back.
https://www.biv.com/article/2015/9/bc-building-permits-hit-new-record-july/

#68 Gray Man on 09.22.15 at 8:48 pm

#37 Turner Nation
Where are all the taxes siphoned off to?

Well let me tell you , they mostly go to pay the interest on money borrowed into existance by our Federal Government from The Bank of Canada . A privately owned Central Bank that we now owe over a trillion dollars that can never be paid off , thats basically it in a nutshell .
Don’t forget to vote !

#69 Harbour on 09.22.15 at 8:52 pm

#34 Confused on 09.22.15 at 7:12 pm
It was stated on here that you buy an etf for yield. But if the unit value drops, how are you farther ahead?

If you buy an asset that pays you 5%, for example, why would you care about a temporary decline in capital value? If you bought for capital gain, you bought badly. — Garth
………………………………………………………………………

Kind of like owning a revenue property… if it’s paying you rent money who cares if it loses half it’s value…. dumb

#70 Mark on 09.22.15 at 8:55 pm

“Her friend’s (some hot soccer moms – look like they do lots of aerobics) and their husbands have good jobs like prof, dentists, doctors, pharmacist owners, etc. These families are freakin’ loaded. And yes, there’s lots of them here.”

All cities have those. Just because you picked a certain section of Edmonton in which those upper-class families are concentrated, doesn’t constitute a representative sample for the rest of the city. Is there any evidence that Edmonton has more dentists/doctors/pharmacy owners per capita than other cities in Canada?

You make a good point about prices — they’re not down. Which is true. But the Canadian dollar has dropped roughly 25% over the past year or two. The fact that prices on imported goods can remain relatively constant, while the currency has taken a nosedive is proof that demand is down significantly with retailers having little “pricing power”.

“People buying shit like there’s no tomorrow.”

That’s not what the car dealer guys are saying these days. Business has basically fallen off a cliff from what I’m hearing. What’s the average family’s capital and maintenance spend on vehicles annually? $5-$10k? That’s right up there with food and certainly dramatically greater than clothing for most.

#71 LH on 09.22.15 at 8:55 pm

we had that kitchen from Ikea
the toddlers loved it
super cute

#72 Gray Man on 09.22.15 at 8:57 pm

Prime Minister David Cameron PigGate scandal …..oink oink

I think he must of really ticked someone off. Think he may be looking for a new job soon!

#73 Estrella on 09.22.15 at 8:59 pm

so from this podcast (which is excellent is from “as It happens“ cbc.ca) we gather that the NDP is relying on a former the finance minister from sask. Andrew Thomson.

Apparently his activity while in office has put into question whether he worked off 2 different sets of books. Hum. Think about this when you vote.

http://www.cbc.ca/1.3233973

#74 Don Derc on 09.22.15 at 9:00 pm

“Several credible forecasters say the bottom is somewhere between $20 and $30, with recovery to take years. ”

Good point, since I was thinking that Andy could wait until oil bounces back to $90 and he’d be in a good position to bail out with some tax free capital gains….in 2020. Maybe.

So what’s the countermeasure for Andy?

I like the $37K cash. I love how bankers/investment advisers get all Lady Ga Ga when they see me with cash. I remind them that big wad did come from their efforts. They have no answer when I ask them how they think I acquired the moola.

answer: real estate (sorry Garth).

I say to Andy…you made your bed now lie in it. Use the $37K to pay the fees/taxes etc over the next 5 years. It’s almost like saying “who cares about the BOC rate….oil prices determine real estate prices in Alta”. Hopefully Andy, you will remain gainfully employed.

But I made a point (a few times) in this blog about us not being “masters of our domain” (no Kleenex jokes please).

Natural, ethical market forces blessed us with $90 a barrel 2 years ago, a far cry from the $130 range many years before that. Alta was on the edge of its seat in 2013 wondering which way the price would go.

Do you agree with me when I say the yanks and the Saudis conspired to flood the world market with product to ensure profit and market share? (yikes…just like 911).

Forget the election… ask Obama Bin Laden what’s next. He’s the one who is setting the price.

Like a liberal being tossed out of white rock south surrey….something funny is going on here.

Je suis Charlie?

Je suis a dropper of cdn bombs in the middle east….harpo said so, and mulcair and pierre Elliot jr will , if elected, continue the dance.

This will not end well.

#75 Darrell on 09.22.15 at 9:00 pm

Garth, I thought that this was a financial, real estate and sometime political blog?

Why is it that those that are in agreement about an impending real estate meltdown and having balanced a
& diversified portfolio are part of the “in crowd”

Those posters on your blog who are proponents of real estate are automatically labelled as “realtors”. Posters who question the financial markets continued boyancy as “doomers” or “metal heads”?

Maybe a little inclusion for those who have differing opinions might widen this blog’s appeal.

#76 fool me once on 09.22.15 at 9:00 pm

Ya think once in office how many of the “Promises” are kept?

Just like Harpo’s lie that he would keep income trusts, Ya right!

They will find all kind of excuses (rationale) to reneg.

Waste our time, another election within a year.

#77 Don Derc on 09.22.15 at 9:01 pm

error:

I remind them that big wad did NOT come from their efforts.

#78 Estrella on 09.22.15 at 9:05 pm

Here`s another link. Why would you think you could trust the NDP, they will dig us a hole to china, and you don`t want to go there….

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-ndp-platform-costing-defence-1.3231835

#79 Ray Skunk on 09.22.15 at 9:06 pm

Hey Andrew!

A few years ago my mrs dumped me too! Fancy that!
Although I got to keep the cats. Winner.

I now enjoy renting, have saved a shedload of cash and am engaged to a lady who is several years younger and possesses larger breasts than my ex.

Cheers buddy!

PS Get a pet. When I rented a condo during my single days I found a couple of well-placed ads on certain websites, followed by a few drinks at the pub across the street, culminating in “wanna come over and meet my cute cute kittens?” reaped many rewards.

#80 Washed Up Lawyer on 09.22.15 at 9:12 pm

Garth:

Thanks for the update on Athabaska.
***********************************

#47 omg the original on 09.22.15 at 7:56 pm

He tells me one of his kids just bought a place 1/2 hour OUTSIDE S’tooner for $450k!!!!!
***********************************

Is it north of S’tooner?

Surely being 30 minutes closer to Waskesiu commands a slight premium for a house.

Canoeing and Pil. ’85 and ’86 went there from Edmonton. Got pics to prove it.

I looked more rugged in the Grummond than PET and Justin while my girlfriend was teaching me how to paddle her stern.

I felt like Grey Owl but looked like Archibald Belaney.

#81 Freedom First on 09.22.15 at 9:13 pm

#60 JSS

Debt debt and more debt. Debt levels in all the Provinces have been posted on this Blog 33 times this year. Albertan’s are in deep doo doo.

Lots of people look rich, but they’re not.

#82 Jake Sanders on 09.22.15 at 9:17 pm

To TRT

This is totally ruined totally. An NDP, brainwashed, no dame progress party.

He is an internet troll working for the NDP or is on the some kind government dole.

Notice that TRT’s comments are not that long and are not that intelligent, never thought out and are just talking points with no real substance.

We can see right through you and you will be done through and through like your socialist, communist friends and comrades.

#83 Washed Up Lawyer on 09.22.15 at 9:17 pm

I guess it is spelled Grumman. Too much Pil.

#84 Jake Sanders on 09.22.15 at 9:19 pm

NDP, correction, NO DAM PROGRESS PARTY!!!!!!!!!!!

#85 Mark on 09.22.15 at 9:21 pm

“Places that have been up for a while are sold out. It’d be interesting to know where the buyers are coming from.”

With the decline in house prices, a lot of the activity is merely the construction firms themselves speculating on the market and trying to eke the last dollars out of their capital investments before they become permanently impaired due to lack of demand.

In the game that is RE construction, the developer that converts his machinery, land, supply chains, and other holdings to cash-in-the-bank “first” lives to fight another day. Less nimble developers find themselves in insolvency, stuck with rapidly depreciating portfolios of fixed assets.

Also, with declining prices, to pay management of these development firms the same salaries and bonuses with reduced net margins requires the delivery of much more supply.

Basically, its typical behaviour at the end of a RE bubble. It rather reminds me of the late 1990s when the most aggressive technology investment efforts existed just slightly past the profit peak of the tech sector in Q2/1999. Only took another 3 years before the sector was in full-scale liquidation on account of severe oversupply. Companies that had a solid base of modern shipping products circa 2001 did well. But latecomers were almost entirely destroyed.

#86 Jake Sanders on 09.22.15 at 9:30 pm

To Mark

I doubt we will see historical interest rates of the past. If an investment loan does cost 7%, which you are predicting a 115% increase in loan rates, 7.00%/3.25%, I will have it already paid off and will still have my $250,000 by maturity.

I can also transfer my strip bond investment in kind to my RRSP and TFSA as I will have contribution room.

#87 Sheane Wallace on 09.22.15 at 9:35 pm

It seems the stock market could easily hit 12 k if the Fed’s language does not change and first rate hike is ruled out, then additional QE introduced.

It is a fine balance between trust in the dollar, the ‘return’ on bonds and the stock market returns.

Can all three dive? You betcha. Considering the bonds and stocks as derivative of the USD, they surely can.

BTW Dow could hit 14 and even 12 k by the time they decide that it is necessary to change the language and hit the dollar with more QE.

Of course Dow would rebound but only if the dollar is not in jeopardy.

Some mix of cash and dividend yielding stocks makes sense, as well as staying out of bonds, some international exposure might help but EM seem very risky.

I highly question ability of dividend player to generate return without additional stimulus. European and Japanese stocks look like a good bet.

The stock market is not for the faint-hearted. If you need some cash short term maybe now is the time to sell. If you are in for the ride in 3-4 years we probably would be at Dow 20 k. Then Dow 30 k. It is coming, the question is what is it going to be worth.

#88 Washed Up Lawyer on 09.22.15 at 9:36 pm

Oh, and while I am fulminating, I call this part of the country Athabaska because that was the natural, historical and logical name for the province. But no, it had to be named after a member of the Royal Family.

On a related note and in connection with the federal election, I could never. ever vote Conservative. Those creeps hung Riel and now we erect statues and name schools after the Father of Manitoba.

It is odd that my anger management issues predate my birth by between about 140 and 110 years ago, but that is what a B.A. in History will do to a fellow.

Anybody but Sir John A and Harpo. Can’t let it go.

Sorry Garth. I’ll calm down.

#89 young & foolish on 09.22.15 at 9:37 pm

It used to be “Don’t bet against America”, but now I think it’s more like “Don’t bet against the 1%”.

#90 Smoking Man on 09.22.15 at 9:40 pm

#67 Gray Man on 09.22.15 at 8:48 pm
#37 Turner Nation
Where are all the taxes siphoned off to?

Well let me tell you , they mostly go to pay the interest on money borrowed into existance by our Federal Government from The Bank of Canada . A privately owned Central Bank that we now owe over a trillion dollars that can never be paid off , thats basically it in a nutshell .
Don’t forget to vote !
……
Bank of Canada is owned by us, Canadians.
The Bank was founded in 1934 as a privately owned corporation. In 1938, the Bank became a Crown corporation belonging to the federal government. Since that time, the Minister of Finance has held the entire share capital issued by the Bank.

Now
The Fed is a completely different story.. Pay attention.

#91 Dragonsayer on 09.22.15 at 9:42 pm

Jake Sanders #83- You mean the NDP is not going to make progress on any dams?

Might you mean: “No damn progress?”

#92 Sheane Wallace on 09.22.15 at 9:43 pm

The deflation myth is just that, myth.

CAD going to 0.6/ sixtyish, houses diving by 60 % at the same time, is it possible? And bread at 5 $ and food further rising by 50 %?

It is very likely? I give it 85 % probability. Actually betting on it.

what I don’t buy is Harper’s confidence. It seems like he is either cool player who knows that he is loosing and setting up the successor’s ruling party to a certain failure.

Or he is just completely out of touch with reality and thinks he has a chance to continue ruling with the CMHC ponzi scheme and scam?

Really hard to say.

Look the idiots at the helm of BOC are another story, completely and very dangerously clueless .

#93 Ralph Cramdown on 09.22.15 at 9:44 pm

#46 Greg Seybien — “My friend said I should get an investment loan for $50,000 and get Bell Canada strip bonds for $20.00 each and in my non-registered account.”

One way or another, that’s gonna end in tears.

#94 For those about to flop... on 09.22.15 at 9:44 pm

Message to “Confused.”
Don’t let them get to you,keep asking questions and seeking financial knowledge .
I am an investment hack but have my tfsa maxed and invested .
I don’t trust myself with ETF’s and so I stick with mutual funds.one day I will probably switch over but I am crawling before walking.
I honestly don’t know why some” experts” are on this blog because they already know it all.
Good luck with your ETF’s .

#95 Bottoms_Up on 09.22.15 at 9:47 pm

The 1%’ers are out of touch. Talked with a financial guy, buddy of mine. He says the only people maxing out the TFSAs are the wealthy.

I don’t think status quo “harpers conservatives” is the best way forward for this country. With banks and insurance companies making record profits, perhaps taxing them a bit more to offer tax breaks to families that will spend into the economy makes sense. Perhaps a higher minimum wage makes sense too…they are doing it in a lot of major US cities, why would that be so bad for Canada?

How about the fact 80% of RRSP contributions have not been made and the plan gives a greater benefit the more you earn. Does the NDP plan to eventually curtail this plan as well? — Garth

#96 Mark on 09.22.15 at 9:48 pm

“I doubt we will see historical interest rates of the past. “

Is that an assumption you really want to make over the next 32 years??? Interest rates, over the long term, are inherently a mean-reverting process, and there is significant evidence that we’ve spent at least a significant chunk of time below the mean in the past 15 years. Which is a pretty significant indicator that we’ll see at least some period in the future of significantly above mean rates.

If an investment loan does cost 7%, which you are predicting a 115% increase in loan rates, 7.00%/3.25%, I will have it already paid off and will still have my $250,000 by maturity.

How will you have paid it back? Certainly not from the investment’s cashflow (that would take nearly 20 years, not even accounting accrued interest on the investment loan!!). And if you use your own personal cashflow, then you need to consider opportunity costs on such.


I can also transfer my strip bond investment in kind to my RRSP and TFSA as I will have contribution room.

Carefully study the taxation aspects of strip bond investments before you do that. You will be taxed each year on a certain notional calculation of imputed coupons, which will serve to adjust your cost base. If interest rates rise (or Bell runs into distress as an issuer), you may have a capital loss which you will not be able to claim if you transfer it in-kind to a related trust.

I’m not trying to give you any advice here, but I am merely telling you that there are tax aspects to this investment that you do not appear to have properly researched, *and* you’re taking a lot of risk for a predicted reward that may not be any greater than simply doing a standard “Garth” balanced portfolio out of your personal earnings cashflow.

Another way of thinking about this is that if a concentrated position in Bell bonds was such a slam-dunk, why don’t the banks simply buy them and put them in their own portfolios instead of lending someone like you money to do the same?

#97 Leo Trollstoy on 09.22.15 at 9:51 pm

The deflation myth is just that, myth.

CAD going to 0.6/ sixtyish, houses diving by 60 % at the same time, is it possible? And bread at 5 $ and food further rising by 50 %?

It is very likely? I give it 85 % probability. Actually betting on it.

Scary, but I think you’re spot on.

#98 Leo Trollstoy on 09.22.15 at 9:55 pm

Places that have been up for a while are sold out. It’d be interesting to know where the buyers are coming from.

I would like to know this as well, but there seems to be very little interest to do so from anybody with the power to do so.

However, I still believe that the bulk of the buying is local.

RE prices continue their unsustainable rise in YYZ and YVR…

At least inflation is fully under control … aside from US imports anyway…

#99 Warf on 09.22.15 at 9:56 pm

DELETED (Anti-Chinese)

#100 Freedom First on 09.22.15 at 9:57 pm

#86 Sheane Wallace

Gibberish.

If you read this Blog regularly you have learned nothing.

#101 Leo Trollstoy on 09.22.15 at 9:57 pm

I doubt we will see historical interest rates of the past.

Never say never, but at least in the short to medium term, you are correct.

By the time we see interest rates ‘of the past’, I’ll be too old to care.

#102 Empty the Garbage on 09.22.15 at 10:00 pm

Hello Garth,

Like other free blogs that anyone can post on, one has the option to BLOCK some posters. There’s a lot of good information on here. But also lot’s of trash. Maybe you could install a feature so I wouldn’t have to sift through the garbage of Mark, Sheane Wallace, Vanecdotal & Victoria Housing Update – just for starters?

#103 Leo Trollstoy on 09.22.15 at 10:02 pm

People buying shit like there’s no tomorrow.

Completely agree.

But that’s the case when money is free.

Look at Canadian auto sales, they’re solid.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canadian-auto-sales-stay-strong-in-august-1.3211760

#104 For those about to flop... on 09.22.15 at 10:02 pm

#94 Bottoms_Up on 09.22.15 at 9:47 pm
The 1%’ers are out of touch. Talked with a financial guy, buddy of mine. He says the only people maxing out the TFSAs are the wealthy.

/////////////////////:////////////

This statement is wrong ,wrong ,wrong.
My wife and I earn 70 k a year and we have our tfsa maxed.
No mortgage ,no kids ,so no excuses for us.
Just a matter of priorities .

#105 Ralph Cramdown on 09.22.15 at 10:04 pm

#85 Jake Sanders — “I doubt we will see historical interest rates of the past. If an investment loan does cost 7%, which you are predicting a 115% increase in loan rates, 7.00%/3.25%,”

Yep.

“I will have it already paid off and will still have my $250,000 by maturity.”

Minus the interest you paid on the loan, and minus the tax you paid on $200,000, in instalments, every year. And $250,000 in 2047 sure isn’t going to buy what $250,000 buys today.

“I can also transfer my strip bond investment in kind to my RRSP and TFSA as I will have contribution room.”

…and if all that wasn’t bad enough, you can transfer it to a registered account after interest rates have ticked up and incur an unclaimable capital loss. Brilliant!

If you feel the urgent need to do something silly, borrow the $50k, buy BCE common stock, and keep using the dividends to buy more of it. It’ll work out better.

El Predicto guesses Investors Group has a hand in this scheme.

#106 Bobs ur uncle on 09.22.15 at 10:04 pm

Where is that statement incorrect? Or are you just insecure? — Garth

Folks who can’t take constructive criticism are generally insecure…not that anyone on this blog falls into that category, right?

#107 april on 09.22.15 at 10:08 pm

#66 Why would they when they can buy more for less at home.

#108 Bottoms_Up on 09.22.15 at 10:10 pm

#47 omg the original on 09.22.15 at 7:56 pm
——————————
That sounds a bit crazy, i hope it’s a mansion. For 450k you can be in a suburb of some major canadian cities in. a 4 bedroom single, 10 min. from anything, great schools and lots of jobs.

#109 Linda on 09.22.15 at 10:14 pm

Garth, this is not a reflection on you, but…..

What kind of sadistic, narcissistic bastard would take the time to pull out a camera and take pictures of that stuck little toddler in the pic, rather than rescue her right away?

This is the social media/selfie world we live in, apparently.

#110 Ralph Cramdown on 09.22.15 at 10:15 pm

#95 Mark — “Another way of thinking about this is that if a concentrated position in Bell bonds was such a slam-dunk, why don’t the banks simply buy them and put them in their own portfolios instead of lending someone like you money to do the same?”

Not a bank, Great West Lifeco. They exit their position in long strips and are able to sell it at retail (minus the broker’s commission) AND make a callable, floating loan at 3 1/4%

http://www.powercorporation.com/en/about/organization-chart/

#111 Charity on 09.22.15 at 10:19 pm

#13 yaro
You must work as a troll for the ndp, Joe Ceci has no plan as he just met with a bunch of ngo’s on Friday last week and was gathering information in Cold Lake. He isn’t spending time trying to pour over numbers. He is just keeping his head above water. Symptomatic of the entire ndp caucus, who are holding back their ideology riddled budget until the Feds have finished.

#60 JSS
If you actually live in Dedmonton pick up today’s Sun, where they actually have a story on what Garth is talking about and is counter to what you are saying, are you in anyway related to or work with Yaro?
Nothing but ndp pill pushing tonight and it is becoming worse than ever.

#112 Vanecdotal on 09.22.15 at 10:25 pm

#98 Empty the Garbage/Edith/Eddie etc.

Feel free to post some “good information”.

Troll on, scroll on…

#113 Wildroasted Nutz on 09.22.15 at 10:26 pm

Renters… sheesh. Another trashed rental in violent saskatoon

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/every-inch-of-the-house-is-damaged-especially-awful-tenants-stuff-rotting-food-in-walls-before-fleeing-saskatoon-home

#114 tundra pete on 09.22.15 at 10:28 pm

#15 bcguy
Saudi Arabia induced this price fix. They will flood the market as long as it takes. Dont dismiss 10.00 oil.

There is such a reliance on Saudi oil by unemployed radical jihadists that if that gravy train dries up, they will go apeshit.

Ever wonder where ISIS came from? Well besides the US govt and CIA.

#115 Volkswagen Senior VP Corporate Ethics on 09.22.15 at 10:30 pm

Just packing up my things here before heading out and seeking future endeavours.

Anyone on this blog know the phone number for the HR department at CREA?

Also, if Harper gets back in, I think I’d be a natural fit – anyone know who I should approach about working in the PMO?

#116 City of Champions on 09.22.15 at 10:38 pm

#60 JSS

Maybe you should read this.

http://www.edmontonsun.com/2015/09/21/edmonton-flooding-with-million-dollar-houses

#117 Retired Boomer - WI on 09.22.15 at 10:40 pm

The Fed Balked over a mostly symbolic .25 bp raise.

Yes, the many pointers around the world down right now, but confidence is paramount. No confidence. no improvements. I give you the stock markets exhibit #1.

You’re exempt? Look at Potash today, what a wiper!
Commodities are on sale, but never fear they WILL go lower, them buy.

Sure, buy that RE the more the merrier! I always enjoy seeing a big bust when the last buyer has fallen…

#118 SWL1976 on 09.22.15 at 10:40 pm

#89 Smoking Man on 09.22.15 at 9:40 pm
#67 Gray Man on 09.22.15 at 8:48 pm
#37 Turner Nation

Where are all the taxes siphoned off to?

Well let me tell you , they mostly go to pay the interest on money borrowed into existance by our Federal Government from The Bank of Canada . A privately owned Central Bank that we now owe over a trillion dollars that can never be paid off , thats basically it in a nutshell .
Don’t forget to vote !
……
Bank of Canada is owned by us, Canadians.
The Bank was founded in 1934 as a privately owned corporation. In 1938, the Bank became a Crown corporation belonging to the federal government. Since that time, the Minister of Finance has held the entire share capital issued by the Bank.

Now
The Fed is a completely different story.. Pay attention.

———————————————-

Not so fast there SM

In 1974 the late Pierre Trudeau, decided to sign over Guidance and Control of the Canadian Banking System to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Up until 1974 Canada had a sound banking system.

They own us too, and I am surprised you thought otherwise

For any others would would like to know a little more on this subject… See What the BIS?

#119 Edward on 09.22.15 at 10:47 pm

China’s economy is running out of steam. The Fed’s statement mentioned this as one of the main reasons that they did not raise rates. I wonder how this will/can change in the months ahead. Yet another drag on commodities and more world wide deflationary fears.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/22/flash-china-caixin-pmi-falls-to-47-in-september-a-6-12-year-low.html

#120 bubu on 09.22.15 at 10:50 pm

#110 Charity, #60 JSS is right…. we’ll not see any price decline in Edmonton, unless we see a spike in the interest rate… -5% in Calgary for one month is nothing… next month the prices will be back…. why a 5% decrease for stocks is ok in one month and it is tragic for real estate ? Look at TSX for the year…. at least you live in the house when the price is down 5%….

#121 45north on 09.22.15 at 10:55 pm

Washed up lawyer: It is odd that my anger management issues predate my birth by between about 140 and 110 years ago, but that is what a B.A. in History will do to a fellow.

that’s because you project yourself as Métis. It’s a totally natural thing to do. I mean to project yourself into some group of people in the past. Like Evangeline:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evangeline

#122 young & foolish on 09.22.15 at 10:55 pm

“People buying shit like there’s no tomorrow….
… But that’s the case when money is free.”

Money is not free … you still have to pay back the principal.

#123 Bottoms_Up on 09.22.15 at 10:56 pm

Trudeau announces he will kill the F35 purchase, buy cheaper fighter planes, and use the savings to bolster the navy fleet. Another reason to vote liberal.

#124 Ret on 09.22.15 at 11:05 pm

#37
“Wynne later defended it, saying the $9 billion from selling a 60-per-cent stake in the utility will raise money for transit and infrastructure, including “roads and bridges in rural Ontario,” and debt reduction.”

Jobs first Wynne, infrastructure later. Get your priorities straight.

Six or seven years ago, they gave these goofballs in Hamilton infrastructure money. Every section of sidewalk in West Hamilton that had a hairline crack was replaced. Great if you owned the local concrete company.

A year or so after that, someone had a shower when there was a major rainstorm and hundreds of homes in the east end had sewage swimming pools in their basement.

Well, at least we had nice sidewalks in the west end so I quess that the infrastructure money wasn’t totally wasted.

#125 Big Dipper on 09.22.15 at 11:07 pm

“the sub-35 cohort show a serious tilt to the left, in the belief the country can tax and spend its way forward.”
Nonsense, the sub 35 know that they have been royally screwed by corporate tax cuts and vote buying giveaways to the rich. Garth statement is a gross misrepresentation, but obviously well received by the pea brained ideology of the cut spending and taxes crowd.
How the confusing graph gets to be linked to a tax increase aversion is beyond me. But here in Alberta we have a problem. The problem is the extremely short-sighted previous Con admins running the place into the ground by their total reliance for Provincial budgetary funding from oil and gas revenue. Lowest tax rate in the country and no PST, but no income buffer whatsoever – and spending like drunken sailors
This is where Notley finds herselves. Being handed a bucked of excrement created by folks with the conservative mindset – and now being blamed for the content of said bucket! This is chutzpa supreme!
Seeing that even the greatest of the “don’t tax me whiners” still want their medical services immediately, their roads drivable and their kids taught more than Con’s “Cut taxes” drivel, something must now replace the lost income that Alberta relied on. The wet dreams of Con’s to cut govt spending drastically has been proven only to aggravate the economic situation.
The answer is therefore to either create large deficits and borrow the money in the hope that energy price recover (unlikely) – or increase taxes. My personal favorite is a Provincial sales tax to be announced in the October budget. It will be the only way to make Alberta financially sustainable over the long term.

#126 Freedom First on 09.22.15 at 11:08 pm

#111 Vanectodal
“Feel free to post some “good information”.
—————-
Like your posts???

#127 Mark on 09.22.15 at 11:09 pm

“Look at TSX for the year…. at least you live in the house when the price is down 5%….”

Not sure what your argument is here. Yes the TSX is down, but this year’s dividends from the TSX index constituents are at record levels.

So if one had their money invested in the TSX versus the real estate market, the dividends (or imputed rent) still flows in, as usual, even if the prices have dropped.

Now, the big difference between the TSX and housing is that the contemporary TSX has a payout ratio of approximately 1/3rd of earnings. While housing pays out the entirety of its earnings. So considering that the net cash-flow yield of housing and the TSX index is similar these days, the implication here is that the TSX index is perhaps valued at only 1/3rd of the housing market. Or in other words, set to at least triple relative to housing as housing goes out of favour and stocks come back into favour.

#128 whitehorn on 09.22.15 at 11:14 pm

#15 BC Guy “Saudi Arabia gets 90% of it’s income from oil revenue, which has dropped 50% this year. They are hurting as much as Alberta.

The pressure is on Saudi Arabia from other OPEC countries to cut production and raise prices. Just a matter of time …” Yes, I agree Saudi Arabia is hurting as well, “but” the longer oil prices remain on the low side, puts enormous strain on all other oil companies and works in their favor. Hence, there is a reason why they increased their production instead of decreasing this year. Also, each additional month this goes on, the casualties will continue to grow. There is a reason share prices on many oil related stocks are at least 50 percent cheaper than a year ago, and no immediate sign of a turn around. Who knows – Saudi Arabia could turn up the taps more with decreases in oil production else where in the world.

#129 Smoking Man on 09.22.15 at 11:16 pm

#102 Leo Trollstoy on 09.22.15 at 10:02 pm
People buying shit like there’s no tomorrow.

Completely agree.

But that’s the case when money is free.

Look at Canadian auto sales, they’re solid.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canadian-auto-sales-stay-strong-in-august-1.3211760
…………..

Capitalism is based on ignorance. The smart eat the dumb. The lier feasts on the honest.

Now go buy a black tee-shirt, get some cardboard, a magic marker, make a sign and go protest.

My observations as an illegal alien sent a billion light years to study you bastards has formed an opinion.

It’s all about evolution, the smart will have the resources to make many copies of themselves. The dumb, will struggle.

Your teachers job and mandate is to make you a zombie. Memorize, regurgitate, obay. Be an honest slave, please master or down to the principles office you go. They have no idea they belong to tribe dumb, dumb. Its the beauty of the smart.

Now there are smart people who see this, the way the game is played. What a huge advantage they have over the dumb.

The dumb have virtue, integrity, honestly. They associated those feelings with years of programming.

The Smart play the player, lie, cheat, and do what’s ever nessasary to win the game of the day.

Morality should be restricted to the family home.

9 to 5 it’s game on…. May the best player win.

Look at this video

https://youtu.be/ZhlCM7NcRxw

Valid points, looks like they have a point.. But they are destined to failure.

If they won, they would find they would have no trading partners.

But they won’t win..

The machine knows it’s a game.. And it takes no prisoners.

So, screw your schooling and play the game hard.

#130 Sherri on 09.22.15 at 11:19 pm

We live in West Vancouver and we had two real estate agents in two days come knocking on our door asking if we wanted to sell. We’d love to but we rent the damn thing! Anyway, today we asked what’s going on and were told that inventory is very low and they have buyers just waiting for property to come on the market! How can that be local money? When you live here you see the reality of foreign money every day…..mostly Asian and Persian with the odd Russian thrown in!

#131 young & foolish on 09.22.15 at 11:22 pm

“Look the idiots at the helm of BOC are another story, completely and very dangerously clueless .”

Right, the BOC guys are idiots, but us commentators on here can see clearly how our economy works, and what it obviously needs.

#132 young & foolish on 09.22.15 at 11:27 pm

“… as housing goes out of favour and stocks come back into favour.”

Housing will not go out of favour, since it is shelter, and people have no choice but to buy/rent some. And you mean to tell us that stocks have been out of favour during this no-rate environment?

#133 OXI in GREECE !! on 09.22.15 at 11:31 pm

Coming to Holecouver. Home of the 1.5 million dollar tear downs, $1.20 gas (with 50 dollar oil) and taxes taxes taxes taxes……

Homeless workers…..

http://www.rt.com/usa/316245-nyc-city-workers-homeless/?utm_source=browser&utm_medium=aplication_chrome&utm_campaign=chrome

#134 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.22.15 at 11:31 pm

Time to go back to bet on the next Fed rate hike.
I bet a couple of squids there will be no hike this year.
Any takers?

#135 Millmech on 09.22.15 at 11:33 pm

#78 Ray Skunk
The next Andrew part two.Thinking of loading up on VW shares,great discount right now!

#136 Vanecdotal on 09.22.15 at 11:35 pm

#125 Freedom First

Those who live in glass houses…

#137 Vanecdotal on 09.22.15 at 11:51 pm

There’s no way the conservatives can bring in new voters to the electorate. Only the dippers can appeal to the youth. They have the fresh ideas that millenials are looking for.

I will also be voting them. To hell with an increase in taxes. To hell with a balanced budget in the future. To hell with a tax free retirement plan for my or your future. To hell with pipelines to secure our energy future. To hell with keeping Canada corporately competitive.

Anybody but (the) Conservatives.

#138 Smoking Man on 09.22.15 at 11:51 pm

How to spot a Nectonite.

Big head
Ears small
Wild crazy eyes
Cigarette always lit
The bulge in the jeans abnormally large.

Click on my name..

I give you Blithe Barrington, took a photo of him on my boat.

#139 Corduroy Cowboy's Wife on 09.22.15 at 11:53 pm

” At least the bike goes fast and vibrates.”

Garth you never disappoint, thanks again for another great chuckle, never mind the sage advice. Your wicked sense of humour and clever wordsmithing is a breath of fresh air in such a dour world.

PS I don’t want to scare you, but I think I love you.

Ha, ha….JK (don’t want to wind up in the Koo Koo files)

Just really appreciate your wit, advice and your writing.

…Not sucking up either, lol.

#140 Vanecdotal on 09.22.15 at 11:56 pm

Sorry, I said dippers. I meant the Green Party.

#141 Space on 09.23.15 at 12:24 am

Freedom First,

Don’t worry about Vanecdotal. He posts as a realtor named Westside Realtor on the Vancouver Condo Blog. He is ridiculed all the time.

#142 Spectacle on 09.23.15 at 12:35 am

Regarding the wise young :
#117 SWL1976 on 09.22.15 at 10:40 pm
…………….
#89 Smoking Man on 09.22.15 at 9:40 pm
#67
#37
———————————————-

Not so fast there SM

In 1974 the late Pierre Trudeau, decided to sign over Guidance and Control of the Canadian Banking System to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Up until 1974 Canada had a sound banking system.

They own us too, and I am surprised you thought otherwise

For any others would would like to know a little more on this subject… See What the BIS?
#########################

#SWL1976 , actually amazed that Garth Turner didn’t correct SM on that one. Young Man, you have been doing your work & thinking of how the pieces fit.
Good!

#143 realadmirator on 09.23.15 at 12:40 am

Garth,

Complain as we might, one has to admire the marketing brilliance of the realturds in Vancouver. They have managed to convince foreigners to buy overpriced crap in a dreary and dully city where it rains for 11 months per year. These realturds could sell snow to the Eskimos, and are one of the greatest national resources…..time to unleash this marketing savvy worldwide….why not start by selling the oilsands to China….

#144 Mark on 09.23.15 at 1:22 am

“Money is not free … you still have to pay back the principal.”

Exactly. And as the economy trends closer to outright deflation, and wages/prices continue to stagnate/drop, the price of that credit is certain to rise in real terms. Rising risk premia also increases the cost of credit, and evidence is clear that banks have started cracking down significantly on their most indebted customers.

So for most borrowers at the margin, what Troll alleges about the cost of money, simply has little truth. The fall in policy rates over the past year has done very little to reduce the cost of credit for Canadian retail borrowers. This is why the Bank of Canada will need to make additional adjustments to monetary policy, including ZIRP/NIRP and QE, in order to re-start Canadian consumer consumption and at least partially arrest housing-led deflation. The failure to lower another 25bp at the most recent policy meeting was a giant mistake, and even the Fed in the US finally is starting to realize that the economy is far weaker than most in the mainstream media have been hyping.

#145 OXI in GREECE !! on 09.23.15 at 1:32 am

#124 Big Dipper on 09.22.15 at 11:07 pm

Seeing that even the greatest of the “don’t tax me whiners” still want their medical services immediately, their roads drivable and their kids taught more than Con’s “Cut taxes” drivel, something must now replace the lost income that Alberta relied on. The wet dreams of Con’s to cut govt spending drastically has been proven only to aggravate the economic situation.
The answer is therefore to either create large deficits and borrow the money in the hope that energy price recover (unlikely) – or increase taxes. My personal favorite is a Provincial sales tax to be announced in the October budget. It will be the only way to make Alberta financially sustainable over the long term.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

So you are suggesting that we are taxed fairly?

Germany has no natural resources unlike the trillions of dollars Canada has.

Germany has 50% LESS actual Govt Employees (actual people not percentage) than Canada has.

Germany has 91 million people to Canada's 35 million.

Canada is over taxed over governed and overdue for a serious overhaul of our way of govt.

And by the way…..our "medical system" is the worst in the G-20……so these people that are "whining" as you call it…..deserve that right. Especially when "public sector workers" get to go to the front of the line while the plebs have to wait a year or two for the same privilege.

#146 PeterfromCalgary on 09.23.15 at 1:50 am

Calgary is on the verge of a long slow decline. It is hard to predict what will happen but we know from history that these long periods of low oil and gas prices have destroyed a lot of wealth.

Here is some recomended reading for young Calgarians. It is a shame they don’t teach this stuff in school.

http://www.cbc.ca/history/EPISCONTENTSE1EP17CH3PA1LE.html

#147 West Coast on 09.23.15 at 2:00 am

http://www.volkswagenag.com/content/vwcorp/content/en/the_group/compliance.html

http://www.volkswagenag.com/content/vwcorp/info_center/en/publications/2010/07/Verhaltensgrundsaetze_des_Volkswagen_Konzerns.bin.html/binarystorageitem/file/The+Volkswagen+Group+Code+of+Conduct.pdf

Got nothing better to do – enjoy reading Volkswagen’s 24 page ‘Code of Conduct’………..I’m very curious to see what the ramifications of this scandal will be for those ‘at the top’. Maybe some will be taking ‘early retirement’…..

#148 Freedom First on 09.23.15 at 2:19 am

#125 Freedom First

Not written by me. The one and only “Freedom First”.

#149 Blobby on 09.23.15 at 3:42 am

I love this website, I’ve been coming here for years.

But common Garth.. After how Harper treated you, and hows he’s been treating the country, what’s with all these pro-tory posts?

And what’s with removing my post asking if you’d seen him without his wig? He spent 100s of millions telling us how nice the oppositions hair was, isn’t it good for us to know about his?

#150 Londoner on 09.23.15 at 4:38 am

Come on – you can’t take a little criticism of the predictions you and Madani made a few years ago?

#151 liquidincalgary on 09.23.15 at 5:50 am

Gray Man/Shawn

The Bank of Canada . A privately owned Central Bank

============================================

wrong again.

in 1938, the BOC was legally designated a Crown Corp

#152 Stupesing in Cabbagetown on 09.23.15 at 6:58 am

#46 Greg Seybien – “However, he showed me on a spreadsheet that the interest earned will grow each year as a $50,000 will mature to $250,000 by 2047-December-1 having a 5.125% Yield to maturity.”

Ah. Maybe I’m mistaken, but I thought that strip bonds don’t earn interest. The coupons have been stripped away.

Bingo. — Garth

#153 Victor V on 09.23.15 at 7:07 am

http://www.nationalpost.com/m/wp/news/blog.html?b=news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/every-inch-of-the-house-is-damaged-especially-awful-tenants-stuff-rotting-food-in-walls-before-fleeing-saskatoon-home&pubdate=2015-09-23

The Fyfes are like a lot of other young families with two homes to their name — in this case the house they’ve rented since moving to Calgary three years ago, and the house they own back in Saskatoon, which they use as a revenue property.

It’s an arrangement that helps pay the bills for themselves and their two kids — but Sean and Miranda never expected being landlords would mean having to pay a massive bill themselves, after their apparently ideal tenants trashed their house back in Saskatoon.

“We really weren’t in a position to afford something like this,” said Sean, who works in IT in Calgary.

“All our credit cards are now maxed.”

#154 fancy_pants on 09.23.15 at 7:11 am

Competition Bureau battle begins over public access to crucial real estate stats

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/competition-bureau-tribunal-treb-1.3238561

#155 LP on 09.23.15 at 7:13 am

#108 Linda on 09.22.15 at 10:14 pm
Garth, this is not a reflection on you, but…..

What kind of sadistic, narcissistic bastard would take the time to pull out a camera and take pictures of that stuck little toddler in the pic, rather than rescue her right away?

This is the social media/selfie world we live in, apparently.
************
You’re exactly right – my thought too.

#156 mark on 09.23.15 at 7:13 am

“credible forecasters”

No such thing has ever existed. Nor will it ever.

#157 fancy_pants on 09.23.15 at 7:23 am

#122 Bottoms_Up on 09.22.15 at 10:56 pm

perfect. Cessna’s would make a far nicer match along the rowboats and sea king copters.

it’s all exhibition pieces any way you dice it. A real war breaks out and we will have white flags out singing kumbaya before the first shot is fired.

so for that reason my vote is not for the kid.

#158 Bottoms_Up on 09.23.15 at 7:29 am

#144 OXI in GREECE !! on 09.23.15 at 1:32 am
—————————————-
No one gets to go to the front of the line, except people with good connections to the medical profession.

#159 TFSAs are for the rich on 09.23.15 at 7:30 am

Moneysense debunked the myth that TFSAs are for the rich by pointing out they favoured low to middle income earners because it requires less pretax income to hit your contribution targets. Maybe Mulcair and Trudeau should get a subscription.

#160 Sheane Wallace on 09.23.15 at 7:49 am

#99 Freedom First
#101 Empty the Garbage

Do you have an argument? Lay it down.

#161 Dee on 09.23.15 at 8:16 am

I like Garth’s summations of the various parties and their plans, and how they’re basically all bad news.

But what should be even more worrisome, as oil, debt, etc all look worse and worse, is that it seems likely we’re heading into another era of successive unstable minority governments.

Hopefully cooler heads prevail if that happens. But right now all three parties are pumping themselves up while ruling out any form of coalition or working together. Which sounds like a great recipe for elections every year, year and a half again, with none of them getting to enact their grand plans. Massive deficits, probably, with the party of the moment giving huge handouts to bribe votes without wanting to pay for it in taxes?

Won’t that do wonders for the economy? Pretty good if you’re a sign printer or media conglomerate selling ads, not so great for the rest of us…

#162 CJBob on 09.23.15 at 8:43 am

From Garth: “Sales are way down (off 33.5% this week year/year), prices are starting to slide (the average is now 5% lower) and housing starts are a disaster. Last month new house construction plunged 30%, according to the Conference Board of Canada.”

This is the data you use to back up your point? Sales during a specific week? I know you’re smarter than this and would look at a trend and not cherry pick a specific week if you were investing your own money.

Housing starts are down? That’s actually good for real estate in the long run, it’s part of a normal correction that as demand drops the number of new homes drop.

If after 7 years of predicting a drop in housing prices across the country this the best evidence you can find then I guess I should go out and buy a McMansion right now. Come on Garth, you’re better than this.

Obviously the stats are not for a week, but rather accurate as of this week. September transactions are down 33.5%, relative to sales to the same date in September of 2014. Monthly sales have been consistently negative for most of 2015, with a noticeable slip in September, which is traditionally stronger than the summer. Two suggestions for you: learn to read and try not to be a dickhead. — Garth

#163 Smoking Man on 09.23.15 at 8:58 am

#141 Spectacle on 09.23.15 at 12:35 am
Regarding the wise young :
#117 SWL1976 on 09.22.15 at 10:40 pm
…………….
#89 Smoking Man on 09.22.15 at 9:40 pm
#67
#37
———————————————-

Not so fast there SM

In 1974 the late Pierre Trudeau, decided to sign over Guidance and Control of the Canadian Banking System to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Up until 1974 Canada had a sound banking system.

They own us too, and I am surprised you thought otherwise

For any others would would like to know a little more on this subject… See What the BIS?
#########################

#SWL1976 , actually amazed that Garth Turner didn’t correct SM on that one. Young Man, you have been doing your work & thinking of how the pieces fit.
Good!
…….
Yes, I Know all that stuff.

Just sucking up to the machine, it studies every single thing I type. my new goal?

I think it’s HI time a Nectonite got an invite to Bilderburg.

#164 Prairieboy43 on 09.23.15 at 8:59 am

Alberta happy index has definitely taken a nosedive. Went to register my vehicle. Not many happy people there. One guy didn’t even have $20.00 to his name to get a new D.L.. I gave him $20.00, while keeping my place in line. Many from Ontario, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia. Were complaining about government expenditure. They were still happy to be in AB.
Buddy of mine laying off 8 metalworkers, lathe cad/cam guys this week. Starting to see the workload slowing down.
$450,000.00 will get you a nice place in Chilliwack. Waterfront property on the Island (albeit no home). But in rural Sask??
Election who to vote for? According to CBC poll, I am a conservative with a conscience little toward center. Close to normal conservative.
Do I reward the current status quo? Alternatives are worse.

#165 Alan Smith on 09.23.15 at 9:02 am

To Stupesing in Cabbagetown

Strip bonds and zero coupon bonds are all based on accruing compound interest yearly so it is no different than buying compound interest GIC’s, expect they are liquid which can be sold at market value and have longer terms than 5 to 7 years.

The $200,000 difference from $50,000 to $250,000 is all compound interest paid at maturity.

The $20.00 price quoted to him for those strip bonds are based on a 5.125% annual compound interest rate over 32.2 years. This is basic math of all the compound interest accrued over 32.2 years which he will pay $20.00 today for a $100 strip bond tomorrow in 2047-December-1.

Greg Seybien used the incorrect words of earning interest growing every year and should of used accruing interest growing every year.

The $20.00 per strip bond matures at $100, so $80 interest is accrued for every $20 strip bond over 32 32.2 years.

So the yield he stated at 5.125% is a net, annual yield but with compound interest, it is 12.42% a year.

The only reason he can deduct the annual interest paid on his investment loan is because it is in a non-registered account. He can’t do this in an RRSP, RRIF, RESP, LIRA, LRIF, LIF, TFSA and any other registered accounts.

#166 Empire State Express on 09.23.15 at 9:02 am

‘…And voting intentions among the sub-35 cohort show a serious tilt to the left, in the belief the country can tax and spend its way forward.’

Well, why not? Millennials have never seen a recession, simply because the economy hasn’t seriously recovered since 9/11. Moreover, they’ve never seen how ugly interest rates can become. So it, like, can’t happen here, dude.

The shame is not that these under-35s are so ignorant or, even worse, naive. Given our educational system, that’s hardly a surprise. What IS a shame is how Justin Trudeau, and especially Thomas Mulcair, are pandering to this ignorance. You got it right yesterday, Garth, a coupla one percenters on the public payroll, claiming to bring change. LOL

#167 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09.23.15 at 9:17 am

#137 Smoking Man on 09.22.15 at 11:51 pm
How to spot a Nectonite.
Big head
Ears small
Wild crazy eyes
Cigarette always lit
The bulge in the jeans abnormally large.
Click on my name..

I give you Blithe Barrington, took a photo of him on my boat.
____________________________________________
To get rid of the bulge in your jeans just change your Depends!

#168 maxx on 09.23.15 at 9:21 am

#2 Randy on 09.22.15 at 5:47 pm

“It’s hard to be optimistic in the short run.”

Structural recessions don’t play out short term.

#169 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09.23.15 at 9:24 am

Thus, if Mr. Harper is reelected and maintains the status quo, there’ll be no surplus unless the economy rebounds, which is doubtful. Instead, the deficit should be about $4 billion per year (including this one). If Mr. Mulcair is elected, promising over $4 billion in additional spending all to be paid for with higher corporate taxes, there will still be a $4 billion deficit, plus pissed-off employers. If Mr. Trudeau is elected, his forecast of a $10 billion annual deficit will be something closer to $15 billion, and he will have increased taxes on companies and higher-income individuals in the process.

But there’s another problem Andy knows all about (or should). Oil. The stuff is currently trading around $45 a barrel and is under pressure as commodity prices sit at 16-year lows. Several credible forecasters say the bottom is somewhere between $20 and $30, with recovery to take years. But the Conservative budget of just six months ago (which all parties are using) predicted crude would soar to $75 a pop in a little over a year. Oops.

So Garth, essentially no matter how is elected we are screwed?
Mr Harper same screwed as we are.
Mr Mulclair more screwed.
Mr Trudeau most screwed.

#170 johnsaccy on 09.23.15 at 9:25 am

Garth, do you agree with his assessment?

Canada wasn’t in a recession before and still isn’t now, Joe Oliver says

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/joe-oliver-recession-1.3239948

#171 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09.23.15 at 9:30 am

#162 Smoking Man on 09.23.15 at 8:58 am

#141 Spectacle on 09.23.15 at 12:35 am
Regarding the wise young :
#117 SWL1976 on 09.22.15 at 10:40 pm
…………….
#89 Smoking Man on 09.22.15 at 9:40 pm
#67
#37
———————————————-
Not so fast there SM
In 1974 the late Pierre Trudeau, decided to sign over Guidance and Control of the Canadian Banking System to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). Up until 1974 Canada had a sound banking system.

They own us too, and I am surprised you thought otherwise

For any others would would like to know a little more on this subject… See What the BIS?
#########################

#SWL1976 , actually amazed that Garth Turner didn’t correct SM on that one. Young Man, you have been doing your work & thinking of how the pieces fit.
Good!
…….
Yes, I Know all that stuff.
Just sucking up to the machine, it studies every single thing I type. my new goal?
I think it’s HI time a Nectonite got an invite to Bilderburg.
_________________________________________
Your malapropisms are excellent for comedic fodder.

#172 Steve French on 09.23.15 at 9:32 am

hehe..

… Sir Garth called CJBob a dickhead…

SteveO

Not exactly. I warned him against dickheadedness. — Garth

#173 broader mind on 09.23.15 at 9:32 am

Excerpt from a meeting held by Harpie and his band of hired mercenaries.A Gartho like member speaks up from the back of the room:Sir we have a problem,one of our constituents wants to sell his million dollar crackshack and just like, spend the money . Harpie replies: You tell that serf to sit tight and I’ll make his crackshack worth 2 million otherwise I’ll make his million worth 50 cents U.S.Nobody gets off my merry-go-round. Gartho like member :But,but,Sir he can’t afford to fix it or even pay the property taxes. Harpie:To bad so sad and your fired.

#174 Nora Lenderby on 09.23.15 at 9:34 am

#71 Gray Man on 09.22.15 at 8:57 pm
Prime Minister David Cameron PigGate scandal …..oink oink I think he must of really ticked someone off. Think he may be looking for a new job soon!

He already said he wouldn’t run again if he won (which he did). It’s tricky though to “retire” now…never piss off a billionaire, is perhaps the moral.

Anyway, I don’t see what everyone’s problem is, pig-sticking was always a well loved sport of the British in India. And playing with your food, although unsanitary and peurile, isn’t a crime :-)

#175 A New Era on 09.23.15 at 9:43 am

#129 Sherri

I’ve lived in West Vancouver most of my life. And it’s been a relatively wealthy enclave for the past 20 years. But it always kept it’s community spirit. The West Van that I knew is now virtually gone.

But now it’s REALLY changing. It’s taking on the feeling of complete exclusivity. Homes (listings) that floundered a couple of years ago or kept popping up because they were unsaleable are now sold. New buyers don’t care about what condition the house is in, they’re buying for the land. It’s being bought up quickly.

All of a sudden, any land below the upper levels highway is in hot demand – there are few listings. Your alternative is to buy a lot high up in the new British properties. But be prepared for snow, monster homes, outrageous prices, “architectural” controls and zero neighborhood atmosphere or sense of community. But you have a view!

(*disclosure* – not a realtor)

#176 Roasted nutz on 09.23.15 at 9:46 am

#147 Freedom First on 09.23.15 at 2:19 am
#125 Freedom First

Not written by me. The one and only “Freedom First”.
——–

And is unable to make copies of himself.

#177 Joe2.0 on 09.23.15 at 9:54 am

We are screwed because of the propaganda that the finely tuned system feeds everyone.
Nice house nice car ….
People are just doing what they are told.
It’s the sheeple shearing machine.

#178 Renter's Revenge! on 09.23.15 at 9:58 am

To Alan Smith/Greg Seybien

1) While your obsession with fixed income products is charming and quaint, you have to realize that in order for Bell Canada to be able to pay your strip bonds back in 32 years, they still have to be around then, which means they have to earn at least as much money as they’re paying in interest on the bonds. Meanwhile, they’re using borrowed money to produce a return on equity of 20%, paying a nearly 5% dividend on the common shares, and raising the dividend every year.

2) Please stop changing your handle every time you post. It’s really weirding me out and everyone here knows that it’s the same person posting each time. You’re not fooling anyone! LOL

#179 Nora Lenderby on 09.23.15 at 10:02 am

#175 Roasted nutz on 09.23.15 at 9:46 am
‘Not written by me. The one and only “Freedom First”.’
——–
And is unable to make copies of himself.

No, I think we could still clone him, it’s sexual reproduction that he says he cannot do.

#180 Llewelyn on 09.23.15 at 10:04 am

The theory behind capitalism is that in a free market system supply will increase to meet demand.

However capitalists are a resourceful lot and it didn’t take them long to realize that the demand side of the equation is subject to considerable manipulation. By adjusting perceptions capitalists were able to create, or influence, demand and to generate substantial profits.

Once capitalists realized that demand for goods and services could be increased through credit a very profitable industry developed to supply an insatiable demand.

Fantastic model right? Everybody gets a taste and who cares if the boys who got the credit ball rolling end up controlling the majority of total wealth, they deserve it. So what if economic growth is fuelled by addiction to debt the ability to buy lots of stuff is definitely worth it!

Here is the sad reality!. The repayment of personal debt, corporate debt or government debt all rests on the backs of ordinary citizens living today or citizens who will be born in the future. The global economy has been inflated by debt and that debt must be serviced.

Through a very clever system of derivatives all risk has been transferred away from the original issuers of credit to the general population. Income taxes = debt, mortgages = debt, credit cards = debt, car payments = debt.

Debt of any form, not real capital, has become the primary fuel of capitalism and the general population seems oblivious to the irony of this switch.

Collateralized debt obligations transfer risk from the boys who made credit available to a wide range of investors convinced that the credit balloon has no limits. The only way this crazy house of cards avoids collapse is by increasing the supply of money and credit, by reducing debt servicing costs, and by convincing ordinary citizens to transfer an increasing portion of their income into instruments of debt or to cover debt servicing obligations. Debt is creating a hamster cage for an increasing majority of citizens around the world.

If you choose not to participate in a system that is turning the general population into a source of wealth for a minority you are branded as a fool.

All I ask is who is fooling who here?

#181 Richard R. on 09.23.15 at 10:06 am

# 129 Sherri
# 174 A New Era

Even the old established top realtors are being bypassed in West Vancouver. They’re being bypassed by new upstarts who’s name’s I have trouble pronouncing. Even though I see they’re add on the back of the bus almost everyday.

Homes that I thought would never sell, or were over priced are now sold.

#182 Nora Lenderby on 09.23.15 at 10:08 am

Um…Mr. T, what is your advice for Poor Andrew?

Buy a puppy, sell the misbegotten condo at a loss and get ready to move if/when he loses his job in the oil patch?

#183 LOL Canada on 09.23.15 at 10:08 am

Oil, resources, and real estate make up such a huge percentage of Canada’s economy that a resource collapse or real estate collapse will have huge, long-lasting changes to our economy for years and years to come. We already have seen the oil collapse, and the government is probably trying to keep that industry afloat while they wait for the price to bounce back. The real estate industry will be subsidized as well. Right now, we have cheap rates. If the rates change, and the USA starts rising interest rates, then Canada will need to keep this industry going to support the government.

Why not bring back some of the old programs to keep the good times rolling? 40 year ams, 0% down payments, no income loans, etc. The government cannot afford a housing bubble to pop, so they will keep it going. Unsustainable? yes. However, likely.

Canadians fly to real estate like bees to honey.

#184 Ralph Cramdown on 09.23.15 at 10:12 am

#134 Millmech — “.Thinking of loading up on VW shares,great discount right now!”

Good luck with that one. I spent hours analyzing that trade, looking at the financials of the top ten carmakers, etc.

The pros:
– largest carmaker in the world. economies of scale
– reasonable but not great margins pre-crisis
– great brand recognition, ad campaigns
– much profit comes from the US, and much from the Audi brand, so there’s less to analyze
– some consumers are so dumb that they don’t know VW = Audi
– no horrendous, compelling video, unlike BP’s deepwater horizon
– after Japanese airbags and GM’s ignition switch, are consumers numb to the details of large auto recalls?

Cons:
– diesels were 25% of VAG’s sales in the US
– unknown billions in fines. VW only has 18bn working capital
– regulators may put the screws to a foreign carmaker to help their domestics
– who knows if their diesels will be drivable with the patch
– brand stigma. driving one won’t be cool, except maybe in “if you ain’t cheatin’, you ain’t tryin'” NASCAR country. Low resale value
– if their credit rating drops AND car resale values drop, how can their lease rates be competitive?
– they were already “de-contenting” models (newer ones missing features older ones had) and selling prior generation models (“City Golf”)
– as of now, their quality is only average to subpar, except at Porsche
– brand loyalty is also subpar

The last two cons were the nails in the coffin for me. If they weren’t retaining current customers through multiple cars, and quality isn’t giving new ones a reason to come, and they’ve now got stigma because of the scandal… then the only way they’ll be able to move the metal is discounting. They’ll become a no margins/no profits carmaker just like Fiat Chrysler.

The first thing they have to do is fire their CEO. Not let him resign. If the board doesn’t do that on Friday, it’s a sign they’re not taking it seriously enough.

The stock may get a short term bounce, but it’ll take years and probably a couple of product cycles to turn it around. I don’t want to be an owner, even at 1/3 off what was already a fairly cheap stock last week.

At least I’m not a VW dealership owner in Greece.

#185 Toasty gonads on 09.23.15 at 10:19 am

#166 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09.23.15 at 9:17 am

#137 Smoking Man on 09.22.15 at 11:51 pm
How to spot a Nectonite.
Big head
Ears small
Wild crazy eyes
Cigarette always lit
The bulge in the jeans abnormally large.
Click on my name..

I give you Blithe Barrington, took a photo of him on my boat.
____________________________________________
To get rid of the bulge in your jeans just change your Depends!
——————–
Casino gamblers are always clad in a good set of thirsty underwear.

#186 Millenial on 09.23.15 at 10:22 am

Yes, real estate is very emotional. I work with this girl who is about 30 years old I’m guessing. She is a semi-skilled medical professional: she’s not a nurse or a physician, but she has some training and certification. A while back she tells me she’s quitting her job, something to the effect of: “I don’t want to keep doing a job I’m not excited about, gonna stop working for a while, try to find something meaningful.” So, she’s having a mini-career crisis, I think we all have those. A month and a half after that conversation I see her at work and I ask her “hey I thought you were quitting?” And she tells me: “I decided to keep working. I’m looking to buy a house.” She’s single by the way, with no dependents. A while later she tells me she bought a detached house in the greater Toronto area.

It was a totally bizarre sequence of events. I don’t think she kept working to pay the mortgage bills. I think it was more like she solved her existential work crisis by finding meaning in owning a home. By the way, I’ve always thought her to be bright, and she works hard.

Real estate to some is like that blanket you loved when you were a kid. The one you’d take off your bed Saturday morning and take to the couch to watch cartoons.

#187 Toasty gonads on 09.23.15 at 10:23 am

“The Smart play the player, lie, cheat, and do what’s ever nessasary to win the game of the day. ”
————–
And nectonites would never been found wearing thristy underwear in a VW!

#188 TurnerNation on 09.23.15 at 10:30 am

They are winning… standard communist playbook we’ve seen through history. Muzzle science and free press.

And Big rush and news stories of new re-programming classes starting in Grade 1. Get em young. What’s needed is a global workforce of faceless, genderless worker drones/slaves draping themselves in brand/brand names (even syrian refugees wear Nike and Adidas)

Typical Kanadian duopoly of CTV and Bell/Globemedia.

“There are conflicting reports today that the CBC plans to sell all its buildings across Canada including its downtown Toronto broadcast headquarters at Wellington and John. The Canadian Media Guild is reporting that an announcement came at a town hall meeting and was in response to the decline in funding the CBC is receiving from taxpayers.”

http://www.blogto.com/city/2015/09/cbc_might_sell_all_its_buildings_including_toronto_hqs/

#189 conan on 09.23.15 at 10:38 am

#156 fancy_pants on 09.23.15 at 7:23 am

The kid has Andrew Leslie and he will be key in fixing the armed forces.

I would also vote George Jetson but he is not running.

Only choice is the PET son

#190 Ralph Cramdown on 09.23.15 at 10:48 am

#15 BC Guy — “Saudi Arabia gets 90% of it’s income from oil revenue, which has dropped 50% this year. They are hurting as much as Alberta.”

Let’s take a look at the balance sheet and the cash flow statement, all summed up in one incredibly easy to understand chart, shall we?
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=19971

Any questions?

#191 broader mind on 09.23.15 at 10:51 am

To# 179 Llewelyn you’re brilliant . The masters that developed Usury,ethical or not,still control the world today.Often mimicked (banks) but never bested ,they are the original Sultans of Sleaze.

#192 Daisy Mae on 09.23.15 at 10:56 am

#103: “This statement is wrong ,wrong ,wrong.
My wife and I earn 70 k a year and we have our tfsa maxed. No mortgage ,no kids ,so no excuses for us.
Just a matter of priorities.”

*********************

Yes, it is about priorities. However, most of us prefer to start families — kids are great but kids aren’t cheap.

#193 Randy Randerson on 09.23.15 at 11:05 am

#134 Millmech on 09.22.15 at 11:33 pm

I also considered getting my some VW. The only two symbols traded as ADR are VLKAY and VLKPY, ordinary and preferred share, respectively.

However, they’re traded on Pink Sheets/OTC Markets. When I logged into my online brokerage, it couldn’t give me the bid/spread. So without knowing the present price (without the help of Google Finance), I didn’t feel comfortable with the VW trade, so logged out and went to work.

#194 Ralph Cramdown on 09.23.15 at 11:27 am

#192 Randy Randerson — “However, they’re traded on Pink Sheets/OTC Markets. When I logged into my online brokerage, it couldn’t give me the bid/spread.”

http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/VLKAY/quote

Fill your boots

#195 IHCTD9 on 09.23.15 at 11:30 am

#20 A Nobody on 09.22.15 at 6:26 pm
All the problems with job layoffs in Alberta just mean more people flying into Toronto looking for work… And housing.

Up we go again for house prices.

The GTA really is different and invincible
____________________________________________

Is that so? The GTA is loosing manufacturing faster than anywhere in Canada (Alberta excepted, but only recently) while simultaneously getting the vast majority of new immigration. Food bank usage in the inner suburbs is up 45% (!), over 30% of new immigrants are packing up and leaving Canada because Timmies wages can’t earn you a life in Toronto (or anywhere urban). Even professional engineering/management positions in manufacturing are paying peanuts these days due to the huge surplus of desperate immigrants with masters degrees competing for what’s left. Look at GTA manufacturing employees on LinkedIn, half of them can’t keep a job for more than a couple years.

Toronto is the job king of Canada where brain surgeons are driving taxi cabs. Those folks from Alberta had better be content going from 100K a year to 25K.

Listen Millenials:

The good paying jobs are exiting stage left. It does not matter who ends up running the show, this will continue unabated. The only difference will be how much faster they start packing up, and how much more of your paycheque will disappear.

This is largely your generations’ good paying jobs heading to the States and Mexico. Us “rich” Gen X’ers and the remnant of working Boomers will be that last ones out the front door, you guys will be the first. We’ve got our mortgages paid.

You Millenials (and especially your kids) will also be shouldering much more of the public debt through taxes in the future than us, just because you have a lot longer to work – and you’ll probably not have much of a choice either with the way things are going.

In Ontario Wynne is getting nowhere with the 300 BILLION Provincial debt, she is also going nowhere fast on her promise to eliminate our 10 figure deficit. She is privatizing Hydro One which surely will not lower the already insane cost of electricity. On top of that she is shelling out tax dollars again on even more public servant compensation (after saying “no new money” for them.). In short, she is doing nothing to help those who still have 30 years left to work. These are the actions of a woman who can’t stand the way Harper has handled Canada (LOL!)

The effects of loose government spending, taxes, and massive debt will have very limited effect on me, or anyone else who has no debt, savings, and knows how to protect what he has (ie rich, boomers, corps etc). You can vote to punish Harper, Boomers, Corporations, and the rich if you like. But it just won’t work the way you hope it will. They will in all likelihood suddenly forget about taxing the hell out of Corps and Boomers, and ding everyone instead. This is the voice of experience – govern yourselves accordingly…

#196 Roasted Nutz on 09.23.15 at 11:44 am

#178 Nora Lenderby on 09.23.15 at 10:02 am

#175 Roasted nutz on 09.23.15 at 9:46 am
‘Not written by me. The one and only “Freedom First”.’
——–
And is unable to make copies of himself.

No, I think we could still clone him, it’s sexual reproduction that he says he cannot do.
—————————–
Well that would be most unfortunate…. a string of DNA, that does not have the zest and the zeal to replicate itself should best be left to the dustbins of herstory… meanwhile, the womyn he fears so much have embraced turkey basters.

#197 Russ on 09.23.15 at 1:17 pm

#124 Big Dipper on 09.22.15 at 11:07 pm

… The problem is the extremely short-sighted previous Con admins running the place into the ground by their total reliance for Provincial budgetary funding from oil and gas revenue. Lowest tax rate in the country and no PST, but no income buffer whatsoever

– and spending like drunken sailors

This is where Notley finds herselves. Being handed a bucked of excrement created by folks with the conservative mindset …
================================

I must take issue with this comment.

It perpetrates the myth of drunken sailors. We spend our own money, sometimes in turn, and not money we don’t have.

It doesn’t matter if we have Cons, Libs or Dippers. They always over-spend your money.
No party has the balls to take on the bureaucracy, the faceless civil servants who are building empires with your money because elected representatives have good ideas and say to these minions, “Make it so (by law).” And then do not provide proper oversight to the spending. The long gun registry just to name a few.

The bureaucracy sees revenue problems, not spending problems. And the MSM is willing to report it as such too.

In Nanaimo, according to a poll result I saw, had the NDP @ 39% and Greens @ 32%.
I will give the Greens a nod for two reasons: their expressed position of smaller government and for the strategic besting of NDP in this old bastion of NDP support.
I hope this election results in a minority government and with the Cons realizing that the only way they can achieve the next majority is to get a different leader.

If you’re gonna dream. Dream big!

#198 Kilby on 09.23.15 at 1:26 pm

We have owned many VW’s over the years, we realize that they are not as good as maybe Toyota, Honda, Subaru etc..But they are fun to drive! We have had 3 diesels but this time chose the 1.8 turbo gas engine and are glad we did, still 45 mpg highway and no urea additive to worry about. Somebody mentioned that they may not be drivable with the “patch” that will not likely be a problem, they will just have less horsepower. Our experience is that the new 2007 and new 2015 we have purchased the quality is pretty good, like little Audis inside. Not perfect cars maybe but we enjoy driving and VW’s always provide well in that department.

#199 The REAL Vanecdotal on 09.23.15 at 1:35 pm

#136 & #139 Vanecdotal

NOT me. Impersonator troll.

#140 Space

Not sure who/what you’re referring to but you’ve mistaken me for someone else.

#200 Yaroslav on 09.23.15 at 3:29 pm

Garth, your statement (see above references) is incorrect in that it assumes the NDP in Alberta are trying to “tax and spend” their way forward.

They haven’t even had the opportunity to put forward a budget yet. How can you judge them on their taxing or spending at this point?

Another comment that you often like to make is that the corporations will just pack up and leave if their tax rate is increased.

In the case of the oil and gas companies, let’s see them do that (up and leave) if the provincial government increases royalties and says, “Don’t let the door hit you in the butt on the way out, and give us back your land titles before you go. We are giving them to other international players who know that paying fair royalties is only fair”.

The resources (the oil and gas) are in the ground. The corporate fat cats can leave. The resources will stay. There are plenty of CNOOCS (Nexens) who would love to come into Alberta and develop the resources, while paying fair royalties.

Let the corporations leave. Let the government tell them that once their gone (and the jobs are gone) others will be given the land and mineral rights instead.

#201 Alan Smith on 09.23.15 at 4:49 pm

To #177 Renters Revenge

How long as Bell Canada been around. So you are admitting that companies and corporations are not long term going concerns.

Who knows, Canada might not exist in 32 years and the Canadian dollar might not exist but you keep holding those paper, plastic things.

We may not be here in 32 years so by your logic, don’t do anything and just vote NDP, Liberal and become a socialist state which we all know what that outcome is, very bad!

Just to let you know, nobody uses their real name on the internet, I doubt your name is Renter’s Revenge.

#202 nonplused on 09.24.15 at 12:47 am

People shouldn’t buy motorcycles on payments unless it’s their only vehicle. But it sounds like this isn’t the only mistake this guy has made.

Folks, you only get one vehicle on payments, the one you need for work. And if your wife needs one on payments because she works too ok she can pay for that out of her income. Anything else, bikes, boats, trailers, skidoos, or even a second car for a stay at home mom, if you can’t buy it cash you can’t afford it. And it’s pretty easy to buy a motorcycle cash. It might not be a brand new Fat Boy but it’ll get you where you are going.

You can get a decent used bike with not many km’s for less than $3000. You only need one buying tip. Touch the motor with your hand and make sure it’s cold before starting it. If it smokes upon starting don’t buy it unless you get such a discount you can rebuild it. If the owner has warmed up the motor before you got there pull the spark plugs and look for signs of oil fouling. If the plugs are black or obviously brand new see tip #1. Doesn’t work for 2 strokes though, you need to bring a compression tester for those. The rest of the bike should prove itself out with a test drive and lookover. Chain and sprocket are worn out? Deduct a couple hundred. Forks are leaking oil? Again a couple hundred. Tranny problems are rare the big thing is the engine hence the smoke/oil thing.

#203 IHCTD9 on 09.24.15 at 9:44 am

#200 Yaroslav on 09.23.15 at 3:29 pm
Garth, your statement (see above references) is incorrect in that it assumes the NDP in Alberta are trying to “tax and spend” their way forward.

They haven’t even had the opportunity to put forward a budget yet. How can you judge them on their taxing or spending at this point?

Another comment that you often like to make is that the corporations will just pack up and leave if their tax rate is increased.

In the case of the oil and gas companies, let’s see them do that (up and leave) if the provincial government increases royalties and says, “Don’t let the door hit you in the butt on the way out, and give us back your land titles before you go. We are giving them to other international players who know that paying fair royalties is only fair”.

The resources (the oil and gas) are in the ground. The corporate fat cats can leave. The resources will stay. There are plenty of CNOOCS (Nexens) who would love to come into Alberta and develop the resources, while paying fair royalties.

Let the corporations leave. Let the government tell them that once their gone (and the jobs are gone) others will be given the land and mineral rights instead.
____________________________________________

Garth can make that assumption because that is what they campaigned on, that is what they say they are going to do, and that is what the NDP is all about by their own admission: tax the corps and people, and “help” the disadvantaged. Go read the Leap Manifesto, some of the dippers would be happy to see Ft Mac shut down all together.

Alberta crude is some of the lowest quality in the world. The words “light” and “sweet” are not uttered aloud in Ft. Mac. It can fetch only a small fraction of that paid for Saudi crude. They are not making jet fuel from Albertan Crude, they are making pavement and shingles from it. Adding to that is the fact Oil Sands are essentially mined and processed using huge amounts of energy, and you have a much slimmer margin than just about any other crude outside of Venezuela, or miles deep horizontal Ocean Rigs.

NO ONE is going to pay top of the industry royalties and taxes for bottom end product and lowest in class margin while located in Canada – at least not as long as the USA is still Fracking.