The head fake

BLONDE 1 modified

Close, but no cigar. The geniuses running the US central bank have erred on the side of caution, delaying that inevitable first interest rate hike in a decade for another month. The new D-date is now Wednesday, October 28th. We got all hormonal for nothing.

The howling skeptics who say rates will never rise again feel vindicated. But the Fed says… not so fast. This is still a done deal and nobody should expecting otherwise. In order to head off inflationary urges and bigger asset bubbles, the US will still be jacking the cost of money. But chief central banker Janet Yellen has turned out to be one cautious woman.

Remember – when the Fed starts this process, it will be an extended one. There’s never been this long a period of rate stability, of zero interest costs or such central banker patience. So when the tightening begins, it will carry on for at least a couple of years – until 0% now turns into something north of 3% in 2017.

The last time US rates started to hike (the summer of 2004) inflation was almost 3% and 66% of the population was working or looking for work. Today inflation is less than half a percentage point and 63% of Americans are employed. Obviously it’s take a lot longer than anyone expected to clear away the rubble from the financial meltdown and credit crisis of 2008-9.

Nonetheless, we’re almost there. The US is growing robustly and employment is swelling fast. The contrast with Canada, now leaning dangerously left politically, is stark. Some tough days lie ahead for the dollar, the oil patch, and anyone who doesn’t use the next four weeks to lock in their mortgage.

So, go ahead and be smug for a while. I can take it.

301 comments ↓

#1 Enthalpy on 09.17.15 at 2:03 pm

I guessed they wouldnt. *eating cookie*

#2 Frank on 09.17.15 at 2:06 pm

The last time US rates started to hike (the summer of 2004) inflation was almost 3% and 66% of the population was working or looking for work. Today inflation is less than half a percentage point and 63% of Americans are employed.

In other words we’re a long way off from the circumstances that caused the last rate hike. This is sounding like a broken record.

Borderline deflation but robust employment, how is this different from Japan?

#3 Smoking Man on 09.17.15 at 2:07 pm

She did the right thing….damn I was hoping for a USDCAD at 1.35 then 1.4

Surprised its gaining … Woo Hoo anyway.

#4 bdy sktrn on 09.17.15 at 2:07 pm

So when the tightening begins, it will carry on for at least a couple of years – until 0% now turns into something north of 3% in 2017.
——————————
Data dependent stance and continued weak economy may say otherwise.

I think we are in for a pace of hikes which is positively glacial when they do start.

#5 TRT on 09.17.15 at 2:09 pm

It will be “one and Done”.

One hike early next year. And that’s all folks.

#6 Slow Canada on 09.17.15 at 2:10 pm

I’m glad you can take it, Garth, because I can’t. The nightmare continues …

#7 TRT on 09.17.15 at 2:13 pm

Ralph Crandown on last blog post stated something very telling.

–> Only 1 person voted in favour of a hike. The rest of the committee said NO. Wow, only one.

In Canada, big money is betting rates won’t rise for a decade. One analyst saying 55 cent loonie coming.

#8 Jeff on 09.17.15 at 2:14 pm

Demographics are destiny.
Median age of Japanese in 1990 was lower than median age of American today.
Low rates, low growth, low inflation until probably 2040.

#9 gut check on 09.17.15 at 2:14 pm

Look – and this is important…
They didn’t raise rates because they CAN’T raise rates.

this isn’t incompetence, it’s a coup.

Once you accept this, everything else gets easier. Okay it gets exceptionally terrifying and disorienting to the point of utter hopelessness for a while, but after *that* it gets easier.

#10 Purdy on 09.17.15 at 2:16 pm

How is Garth Turner so based? Yelled is going to crash this re bubble with no survivors. 34yo renter with a balanced portfolio sitting on the side line waiting

#11 japan on 09.17.15 at 2:16 pm

Disappointing for sure, but i guess there is no inflation in USA, except in housing as it is in Canada. The only hope for canadians that want to buy a house at a decent price is to wait for the next recession, maybe we are in one here, Alberta is for sure. Other than that, be diversified and don’t overspend.

#12 saskatoon on 09.17.15 at 2:16 pm

if they can’t “raise” rates now based on the available data…

how will the next 30/60 days of data suddenly make such a raise viable?

short and obvious answer: it won’t.

garth, you are correct about many things, but this ain’t one of them.

#13 Sheane Wallace on 09.17.15 at 2:19 pm

I was wrong, as usual. No rate hike.

Show must go in.

#14 Sheane Wallace on 09.17.15 at 2:20 pm

Show must go on.

#15 darn it... on 09.17.15 at 2:21 pm

It would have been more fun if we could have been snarky without you asking for it…

oh well, we’ve been wrong about interest rates for the last several years too. we so smart we’ve been both wrong.

#16 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.17.15 at 2:21 pm

Looks like Obama owed Harper a favor.

#17 Confused millenial on 09.17.15 at 2:22 pm

Looks like you were wrong about rate liftoff, Garth. Again. But anyway it’s an open admission that the U.S. economy is not doing so hot so the most the fed can do is leave rates at a fixed 0.25% instead of present floating 0-0.25%.

#18 Samantha on 09.17.15 at 2:24 pm

Talk is cheap…I’ll believe it when I see it, until then pity the savers…

#19 dd on 09.17.15 at 2:24 pm

OK … as I told you back 2010 no rate rise. You have been on and on and on about September lift off. Ok – enough.

World events … LOL. When does the US give a sh*t about anything but them. Its now obvious, the US economy, is slowing down.

#20 Down 'n Dirty on 09.17.15 at 2:28 pm

CDN Dollar expected to plummet to 55 cents under current Regime of Clowns.

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/9/17/Loonie-could-tumble-to-55-cents-against-the-greenback-warns-strategist-.aspx

Even if the US Fed raises in October…there will no change in Canada from our Clown Prince Poloz for years. The Canadian economy is set to languish until we’re running neck and neck with Tajikistan.

Our politicians have lots of room to tax before they hit 100%…so you can forget about any focus on the economy.

In my work I get paid in international currency…USD….but I do hate to see my country being run into the ground by overpaid labour unions and turned into a third world ghetto where drug dealing or a civil service job is the only option to financial stability.

And Garth….think positive….you can kvetch for at least another five years about an out of control real estate market….and nonexistent HAM putting Canadians out of their homes using cheap Canadian dollars and laundering higher priced Yuan into Canada.

#21 Smoking Man on 09.17.15 at 2:28 pm

Im calling 250 comments by 9pm

#22 Gulf Breeze on 09.17.15 at 2:29 pm

Gold hedging the Canadian dollar nicely. Just roared up 10.00 American in about 5 minutes. Kiss deflation goodbye! No hikes now or in the foreseeable future, here or in the U.S.

Any hint of a “maybe, might, could, should” nadanadanada, are carefully constructed to prop markets while injecting just enough doubt to prevent massive asset bubbles. They are all,about blowing the froth off or preventing it from forming. Stocks are already overvalued.

#23 Jim B on 09.17.15 at 2:30 pm

So Canada is “leaning dangerously left politically”? Okay, your opinion. But have you ever written (or felt) that Canada was “leaning dangerously right politically”? I get that you believe entrepreneurs are the salt of the earth, but tell me one business that Stephen Harper ever founded. The guy’s a career politician, period. Which doesn’t make him evil (it’s his policies that do that).

#24 Chris on 09.17.15 at 2:32 pm

Haven’t seen my last couple of comments – starting to wonder if I’m banned or something?? This comment will be the test. Garth, I think you are correct in saying rates will eventually rise – they pretty much have to at some point. Where you are wrong is in your repetitive predictions – it will happen on this date. As I said before, I don’t know, and neither do you, so quit trying to make it seem like you do. One question about preferreds – I am intrigued, however don’t understand. If they pay a fixed rate until some reset date, and the price really doesn’t fluctuate – how would their price go up with increasing rates? Shouldn’t this cause their price to go down, just like bonds? If you don’t want to explain, can you point me in the direction of a good Canadian source for this explanation. Thanks

#25 Nyaah, nyaah, Garth was wrong!!! on 09.17.15 at 2:32 pm

Seriously, though, past behaviour being the best predictor, this hesitancy does suggest that October 28 is far from certain, and any rate hike this year could still be in doubt. The U.S.A economy is a puzzle in many ways and does not seem to be in any kind of a robust recovery yet.

“…..Canada, now leaning dangerously left politically….”

Garth, do you mean as opposed to ‘dangerously right’, such as with:

-reckless gambling on the oil and real estate sectors to the exclusion of others
-turning CMHC into a subprime lender that puts us all at risk of default costs
-allowing 40 year mortgages, endless granite reno credits etc….
-creating greater wealth disparity that threatens to undermine social stability
-destroying a hard-earned inherited surplus and running deficits year after year

-etc…..etc….

I’ll take “dangerously left” any day over that, thanks :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ei50lM6ab1c

#26 B Riding Dirty on 09.17.15 at 2:33 pm

All I care about is making money in my diversified portfolio, which now is supposedly well balanced. Do you see a time when it will happen?

We all seem to know when houses will correct, or interest will go up, but when will our portfolios beat thr house market?

17.2% in YVR and surrounding area this year so far. And in the Fraser Valley still tents set up with campers waiting to buy a town home. No joke, I will email picture to prove.

NUTS, feeling like I am on the Titanic and not sure if my captain has a clue whats ahead!!

Purple Juice, god damn what else is there to drink…

#27 TurnerNation on 09.17.15 at 2:35 pm

Sorry folks no rate hike at least till 2016.

That old saying: Trade what you see not what you think.

TLT.US well above 100 says it all.

#28 Butch on 09.17.15 at 2:37 pm

Markets will freak again in October.

Rinse, repeat, no rise.

I’ll put money on it. Just like I did today (and won).

Why? Because nothing will change between now and October.

#29 Gulf Breeze on 09.17.15 at 2:37 pm

DD,

The American economy, on average isn’t slowing. I have many friends and family down there. It’s real. But and it’s a big butt…there are two Americas.

Many of the new jobs being created are service sector or part time in the one America. And then you have real career jobs that drive the economy, concentrated in specific areas.

Developed nations are moving toward a more steady state third world type of situation. Unless the F.I.R.E Ponzi can keep adding to the bottom of the pyramid with fresh loans, the long term prognosis is not good. This is fuelling the impetus behind the drive to bring up wages.

Personally, I feel it’s going to come apart at the seams, but gradually, with most people being ground down financially while the rich continue to reap the benefit of a sick system.

#30 NextYear on 09.17.15 at 2:38 pm

Rate will raise Next Year, like in 2011,2012,2013,2014,2015.

Simple… it’s always Next Year

#31 neo on 09.17.15 at 2:43 pm

Garth wrote:

“So when the tightening begins, it will carry on for at least a couple of years – until 0% now turns into something north of 3% in 2017.”

Not sure where you got that from. CNBC put up the new projections and it is 2.0% in 2018.

2017 was something like 1.7%.

I’ll await Oct when you tell us December for sure. I promise.

#32 alan on 09.17.15 at 2:44 pm

The world must be in some deep doodoo to not allow the rate to increase by a paltry .25 point.

#33 Andrew on 09.17.15 at 2:44 pm

So predictable. And the Fed will not raise in October either – they will never raise, only go from ZIRP to NIRP. The US debt has doubled in 8 years. The fake recovery is a fake recovery, just like the UK (where I live) is going through a fake recovery. If the recovery was real, a 0.25% rise would be no big deal. It is a big deal because of unsustaintable debt and that the recovery is not a REAL one.

Garth, time to stop talking up the US – you will look foolish by the end of the year when they haven’t raise their rate…and that WILL be the case.

#34 waiting on the westcoast on 09.17.15 at 2:45 pm

Well – I missed on this one. I was sure they would have the balls to do the right thing. I did get the call on Canada correct twice. It definitely has to happen soon.

I know the numbers are not as good today as they were in 2004 but I would argue they waited too long. That easing led to the housing market bubble. Too much momentum built up…

Good article on Bloomberg outlining how quick the raises will be once they start. Like Garth says a quarter point a quarter for two years.

A reprieve for Harper.

#35 LOL on 09.17.15 at 2:48 pm

Welcome to Japan!

#36 Victoria Real Estate Update on 09.17.15 at 2:49 pm

When the Fed makes its first of many rate hikes next month, it will indirectly cause Canadian 5-year fixed mortgage rates to begin moving higher.

This will affect all first-time buyers in Canada. Qualifying for a mortgage will suddenly become more difficult for those entering the market, and a lot more difficult over time as the consecutive rate hikes add up over the next 3 years (approximately).

Three years from now Canadian 5-year fixed rates will be north of 5%.

Recent first-time buyers or those who bought near the peak (that was 2010 in Victoria) will be shocked as rates rise. They will be forced to accept that they bought at the wrong time as they slowly learn that house prices fall as rates rise. Many will be angry at those who promised them that:

* it was safe to buy
* emergency level rates were the new normal and permanent
* prices could only go higher
* wealthy buyers from China, Alberta, Mars or elsewhere would make prices soar to unimaginable heights (those unsubstantiated claims have been used for decades)
* mortgage debt is good debt
* this is Canada – it is different here (even though several Canadian cities have experienced housing market crashes in the past)
* no bubble exists in Canada (even though the Canadian bubble is much bigger than the 2006 US bubble that imploded with spectacular results), and so on…

All housing bubbles correct and there is no example of one that went through a slow, safe, soft landing.

#37 lala on 09.17.15 at 2:54 pm

Samantha nice try but better wash the dishes and clean the house

#38 Barry in Pickering on 09.17.15 at 2:54 pm

I expect no Fed rate change at all in 2015.

#39 A Nobody on 09.17.15 at 2:55 pm

Smoking man .09.17.15 at 2:01 pm
Damn…

—-

I am assuming that comment from you is with regard to your forex bet on a rate hike and the losses you have incurred as a result of your wrong call.

My call on higher RE prices in the GTA just got another lift.

#40 Londoner on 09.17.15 at 2:59 pm

“The howling skeptics who say rates will never rise again feel vindicated.”

We’re not saying that rates will never rise but that they will rise very slowly. There’s no chance rates will be north of 3% by 2017. History has shown that, without extraordinary moves in inflation, interest rate cycles can last decades.

#41 Mike T. on 09.17.15 at 3:02 pm

doesn’t matter because the end game remains the same

next time central banks ruin the economy people will get bailed out and it will be a trick into accepting the real NWO

#42 Londoner on 09.17.15 at 3:06 pm

“Janet Yellen has turned out to be one cautious woman”

She was always a dove. Becoming Fed Chairman didn’t change her views.

#43 FitBitKid on 09.17.15 at 3:09 pm

It may be surprise to you, but really its as expected.
What’s the reason for raising rates ? Minimal overall Inflation…Worldwide currency war, economic slowdown and commodity slowdown.

Only thing we have to worry about in future is food inflation. Everything else is well under control due to globalization.

Only reason Fed may raise in 2016…that too maybe… is because of stocks overheating.

#44 jimmy on 09.17.15 at 3:10 pm

The Fed didn’t raise interest rates. They can’t.

They couldn’t even boost it 0.25% which really is nada.

That’s gotta tell ya something about the USA economy.

#45 Edward on 09.17.15 at 3:10 pm

Market now saying first rate cut will not be until March 2016.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/17/fed-holds-off-market-moves-bets-on-hike-to-2016.html

#46 pbrasseur on 09.17.15 at 3:12 pm

I find the FED’s decision disappointing.

I guess it’s ok to err on the side of prudence but as far as I can see current rates serve absolutely no purpose besides feeding unbalances that may end up being dangerous later on.

Lending is on the rise, including for housing. The recovery is slow but steady. There is no reason to believe that a small increase of short term rates would jeopardize anything.

The FED has missed an opportunity in my opinion.

#47 Smoking Man on 09.17.15 at 3:13 pm

#38 A Nobody on 09.17.15 at 2:55 pm
Smoking man .09.17.15 at 2:01 pm
Damn…

—-

I am assuming that comment from you is with regard to your forex bet on a rate hike and the losses you have incurred as a result of your wrong call.

My call on higher RE prices in the GTA just got another lift.
……

I bought in big at 1.22 to 1.23. Every cent gives me 100k still way up.

But Im greedy. Plus made a few bad bets too, that I wont talk about….

Still up huge.

#48 Ralph Cramdown on 09.17.15 at 3:14 pm

I didn’t make a public prediction — didn’t see the point. The consensus prediction was for no hike. Not ‘consensus’ as in average of everybody who made a public prediction, but ‘consensus’ as in the dollar weighted average of everybody who bet on the outcome with real money, with one dollar equalling one vote.

I don’t know that all of those voters are necessarily smarter than me, but they certainly work harder and have more assistants. The largest ones, I’m guessing, have detailed models of the economy which get updated every time a regional Fed spits out a new economic statistic, and are designed to estimate growth, inflation and employment. The Fed itself has similar models (AOL keyword DSGE), designed by a small army of PhDs and updated by a larger army of data entry clerks, telephone canvassers and Excel drivers at the Fed, the Bureau of Labor and elsewhere.

Why somebody would want to bet against the consensus of organizations spending millions on models because they’re running billions of clients’ cash is beyond me. This game is NOT “On any given Sunday.” The only intelligent reason to bet in the first place is that you’re running an active fixed income portfolio, and need to beat your peers and/or the benchmark. Good luck, Bill Gross, Jeff Gundlach and whoever’s at the helm of Pimco this year. Good luck anyone reading this who wants to bet against them.

#49 salonist on 09.17.15 at 3:15 pm

jr. says you ain’t seen the end of the grocery price increase
so, as much as grocery items have increased in price,
consider the prices now, a bargain.

as mentioned by Wallace

these new grocery prices coming, that’s the new norm..they’re not going to reverse

#50 Rational Optimist on 09.17.15 at 3:21 pm

8 Jeff on 09.17.15 at 2:14 pm

“Demographics are destiny.
Median age of Japanese in 1990 was lower than median age of American today.”

I won’t bother to check if that was the case or not.

Japanese birth rate 1989: 1.57 children per woman.
American birth rate 1987: 1.87
American birth rate 2014: 1.86

Now here’s the really big divergence between Japan and the U.S., that you forget about.

Net migration rate: 2.45 migrants/1,000 population

In Japan, closer to zero.

#51 Rational Optimist on 09.17.15 at 3:24 pm

How is this going to play in tonight’s leaders’ debate?

What impact will this have in October? I’d say this is positive for the ruling party in the same way a rate increase would have been negative for the ruling party.

#52 Go Fed Yourself on 09.17.15 at 3:25 pm

Given the several, yes several, years of rising rate warnings by central bankers and finance ministers, and sitting on the sidelines for a housing correction, I am now convinced after today’s gutless decision that its time to wade into the market.

Rates will move at a glacial pace. Those realtors that predicted low rates for 5-10 years back in 2009 actually knew what they were talking about – ‘who kudda known, gee weez’

This bear is done waiting. I got giddy with the price declines of 2008, then confused when prices stopped and quickly started their assent, then stunned when they kept going up in 2012/13/14, and now even backwater places are seeing rises in 2015.

Looks like smart renters with balanced portfolios just got hooped again. Looks like another 8 years of slow price declines when rates go up, making a perfect entry point in 8 years. Gee weez, nothing like waiting 16 years to be vindicated for a housing correction.

So ‘FED’ up….missed out on a once in a generation bull market in RE where I can never catch up to my peers who, it turns out, were smarter than me and bought….

#53 Ralph Cramdown on 09.17.15 at 3:25 pm

>> “Janet Yellen has turned out to be one cautious woman”

> She was always a dove. Becoming Fed Chairman didn’t change her views.

“Let’s appoint the reckless Radical to be head of the Fed” said Nobody, ever.*

* – Except maybe Ron Paul?

#54 S.Bby on 09.17.15 at 3:25 pm

Dammit. I even had it marked on my calendar.

#55 TRT on 09.17.15 at 3:28 pm

Wow. Market now pricing in a rate hike in March 2016.

What can happen between now and then?

China slowdown?
U.S. Equity correction?
Low inflation?

List goes on Garth. Acknowledge it and move on.

#56 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09.17.15 at 3:28 pm

The current consensus of Wall Street economists is that the Fed will wait until October at the earliest to raise rates, given concerns about China and recent surveys showing weak consumer and business confidence.
Big-ol-chicken shits! All of them!

#57 Armando on 09.17.15 at 3:31 pm

Wouldn’t it be funny if the US (and world) economy starts tanking before the Bozos at the Fed get around to raising interest rates?? Markets will be crashing everywhere and these idiots will have no ammunition to do anything about it since QE-to-infinity won’t do squat when push comes to shove. I can’t wait!

#58 Sideshow Rob on 09.17.15 at 3:32 pm

The Fed has stared into the chicken entrails and decided to jumped the shark. Typical 2 handed economists…on the one hand all is sunshine and puppies! No emergency. On the other hand they need to maintain emergency interest rates. Those central planners are wearing no clothes. One of these days the world will see that.

#59 Brian Ripley on 09.17.15 at 3:38 pm

The no rate hike will not add gas to the gasbag that is real estate in the short term. The real estate market will sleep until January 2016 if the cyclical nature is any indication:

http://www.chpc.biz/mar-moi.html

The chart link above is the Monthly Absorption rate. Clearly it’s snoozing. Will it wake up in 2016? Notice 2013 on the chart. That could be the picture in 2016 especially with Alberta in a major trend change. We could be looking at lower highs and lows rather than an upside surprise.

The labour force is going to have to follow where the Federal government is dumping money because the corporate sector left Canada some 18 years ago (see the FDI data on my household debt chart). So from that point of view, it will further labour’s ambitions to have low debt and the ability to move to where the employment is.

#60 TRT on 09.17.15 at 3:41 pm

Holding interest rates at zero are to reward the 1 percenters at the expense of the working class. It’s all about protecting asset values : bonds, stocks, and RE.

Believe anything else and you’ve drank the Koolaid.

#61 why raise it? on 09.17.15 at 3:47 pm

Why is it “good” to raise the interest rate?

Why is higher interest rate better than lower interest rate?

(Other than real estate considerations.)

#62 Kilby on 09.17.15 at 3:49 pm

Analyst on CBC this morning said no rate hike until December.
Funny song….

http://bowserandblue.com/you-tube-play.php?id=40411

#63 Yitzhak Rabin on 09.17.15 at 4:02 pm

Why gloat? It’s sad that there are still legions like you hanging on the FED’s every word and believing their rhetoric when they have proven themselves incompetent and the worst forecasters in the world.

They are completely trapped and they know it. Central banks created the conditions for the 2008 financial crisis, and any recovery since has only been papered over with 0% interest, bailouts, QE and even more debt.

What this shows is that after 7 years the financial system and economy is so screwed up it cannot handle a measly 0.25% rate hike. The FED apologists are being played. First they were supposed to hike, in their own words, when the unemployment rate went under 6.5% – they moved the goal posts.

At the start of the year, there were 2 camps. Those who thought a rate hike was coming in March, and those who thought in June. Surprise, nothing by September.

If any hike comes, it is one and done, followed by a reversal and QE4.

#64 Joe2.0 on 09.17.15 at 4:03 pm

Fed fails to raise rates for the 55 time.
Something’s broken bad.

#65 Chris in Nanaimo on 09.17.15 at 4:06 pm

Cool….the Chinese now control US interest rates….their world domination is almost complete….:-)

#66 Evangeline on 09.17.15 at 4:11 pm

Peter Schiff said there would be no rate hike and the case he made sounded right. He is also saying that before there’s a rate hike, there will be QE4, probably early next year.

#67 JSS on 09.17.15 at 4:12 pm

I have completely forgotten what life was like with normal interest rates.

#68 Kreditanstalt on 09.17.15 at 4:13 pm

The Fed will only “start this (rate rising) process” if their “recovery” can be proven to exist.

This is a systemic, peak-debt/peak counterfeiting event. NOT cyclical. When the hikes DO come, they will be market-driven and the Fed will be an irrelevancy.

#69 Jakethesnake on 09.17.15 at 4:19 pm

Goddammit smoking man….I didn’t follow your fedora wearing, grapefruit sized advice bro…what do you think,I’m crazy or something? I drink and smoke but I’m not crazy you drunk genius, teacher tormentor you….

What I DID do was short usdcad to the tune of 168 contracts….like 42k in the margin acct. Everything was going swell and was ready to close the orders at 2:50pm for a nice 136k profit….then my damn laptop crashed. When I got it back up and running that retracement you always talk about took me back to par for crying out loud….I let 136k slip outta my hand….I should sue the laptop manufacturer…

Let me know if you wanna see my account history….you might be able to learn something about how I made a 615% profit in 4 months of trading….

As long as you can teach me more about batman.

#70 Monetary Morphine on 09.17.15 at 4:22 pm

Like they say “it ain’t over till it’s over”. Fasten your seatbelt for this week’s epilogue of “quadruple witching hour”

#71 zedgt87 on 09.17.15 at 4:23 pm

Raising rates is not a done deal.

>The US is growing robustly and employment is swelling fast.

Lol, that is a good one. If that were true rates would not still be target at ZIRP.

The fact that we are still zero bound 7 years after the GFC with a slowing global economy speaks very loudly to the true state of things. If another depression sets in and we are still at zero, we are up shit creek.

One of the FOMC members is predicting negative rates in the future according to the dot plot. Hardly a guaranteed thing that rates are going up.

#72 Doomer Gloomer on 09.17.15 at 4:28 pm

I told you so! … The only interest rate move you see from the FED is to negative rates. One FOMC member hinted at that today. Too bad you censor all my comments. I thought you’re a better man than that.

#73 alf on 09.17.15 at 4:33 pm

please; someone tell me what the feds are signaling? If they wanted to show that they were serious about raising rates they could have gone with a token rate increase or at least rigged the vote to show 4 out of 9 were in favor of a rated increase.

#74 Mister Obvious on 09.17.15 at 4:35 pm

#65 Evangeline

“Peter Schiff said there would be no rate hike and the case he made sounded right. He is also saying that before there’s a rate hike, there will be QE4, probably early next year.”
————————————-

Peter Schiff has been predicting a runaway inflation to occur any minute now for several years.

#75 Jakethesnake on 09.17.15 at 4:36 pm

No way in heck Yellen was gonna hike…the US economy is like a heroine addict being provided small doses at a clinic….can’t mess with that until the doctor gives the all clear….Yellen is a sheep in sheep’s clothing….she doesn’t have a beard and nobody would run to her for cover in an earthquake…..

#76 Setting the Record Straight on 09.17.15 at 4:38 pm

@52
#52 Ralph Cramdown on 09.17.15 at 3:25 pm
>> “Janet Yellen has turned out to be one cautious woman”

> She was always a dove. Becoming Fed Chairman didn’t change her views.

“Let’s appoint the reckless Radical to be head of the Fed” said Nobody, ever.*

* – Except maybe Ron Paul?

$$$$$$
Actually we have had three reckless radicals beginning with Greenspan.

#77 Setting the Record Straight on 09.17.15 at 4:47 pm

@60

https://mises.org/library/thrall-federal-reserve

#78 Investorz on 09.17.15 at 4:49 pm

10 year bond yields went down 3.4% as soon as the news came out.

This is GOOD for canadian REITS which pulled back. People still need yield and they won’t get it with bonds!

This is BAD for insurers like Manulife. Low interest rates for longer.

#79 Now what? on 09.17.15 at 4:52 pm

It’s probably a good bet that preferred share ETf’s won’t be going up for a while. You might get an even better entry level by waiting especially if there is more turmoil in the markets.

#80 Freedom First on 09.17.15 at 4:54 pm

Right on. What, Canadians today owe about $1.65 for every $ earned, say this like an auctioneer, “who’ll give me 1.70”. We had the “crazy canucks” label at one time in history. Will this be a repeat?

Garth is dead right. If you do have a mortgage, God help you, lock it in. Trust me.

#81 Rory on 09.17.15 at 4:54 pm

“But the Fed says… not so fast. This is still a done deal and nobody should expecting otherwise.”

Not so fast Garth. One policy maker is calling for negative rates! It is not a done deal.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-17/one-monetary-policymaker-wants-negative-rates-in-the-u-s-

#82 betamax on 09.17.15 at 4:56 pm

Welcome to the new Japan.

#83 Londoner on 09.17.15 at 4:58 pm

“The new D-date is now Wednesday, October 28th.”

I’m reading the same Fed statement as you are. They’re citing global concerns as key risks to the outlook for economic activity. Can you please explain what could possibly change in the next 4 weeks that would make the Fed change it’s risk assessment?

#84 Retired Boomer - WI on 09.17.15 at 4:59 pm

As expected… no rate increase. AND.. the market closed OFF!!

So, dumped an overseas fund that hadn’t been doing much more in int. term bonds.

Me thinks there is time to thin the equity holdings and sit in CASH until – IF – there is a move upward on the price of money. No move up-NO Investments in equities, or Bonds.

The subliminal signal is “The American Dollar / Economy is NOT worth betting on/in” never had THAT signal before!

We are still the best looking dog in the pound, but mange is spreading fast in here. The management is too cautious.

#85 Rexx Rock on 09.17.15 at 5:01 pm

Give it time,if the fed doesn’t raise rates this year all credibility of the fed is out the window.The people will not believe anything they say anymore and panic will begin.Hopefully qe 4 comes in like some say on bnn.That would be great,another big stock rally.

#86 Setting the Record Straight on 09.17.15 at 5:02 pm

@#79 Rory on 09.17.15 at 4:54 pm
“But the Fed says… not so fast. This is still a done deal and nobody should expecting otherwise.”

Not so fast Garth. One policy maker is calling for negative rates! It is not a done deal.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-17/one-monetary-policymaker-wants-negative-rates-in-the-u-s-
&&&&&&&&&

By the pricking of my thumb, Something evil this way comes

#87 MSM-Free Zone on 09.17.15 at 5:03 pm

Moving right along….big Leaders’ debate on the ‘economy’ this evening.

Had to turn off the 3D function on my bigscreen. Can’t take a chance on getting harpooned by Harper’s growing nose again:

“My clear friends, let me be clear, there has never been a clearer time for more clearer clarity and clearness …… yadda ….. yadda….”

#88 Fed-up with the Fed on 09.17.15 at 5:04 pm

Yellen and the Fed, what a joke. Absolute zero credibility…none, zip, zilch, nada. The boy who cried wolf is Albert Schweitzer by comparison.

Somebody please wake me up when a significant rate hike actually happens. In the meantime, I’ll be watching my balanced portfolio doing squat in comparison to mindless idiots buying dirt and pressed cornflakes with 95% leverage looking like geniuses in spite their ignorance. But hey, will may be right…someday.

At this rate maybe there will be a 10-15% real estate correction and slow melt roughly around the same time Justin Trudeau is as bald as his papa was.

Ciao for now.

#89 Llewelyn on 09.17.15 at 5:04 pm

I never was sure all the economic fundamentals in the US were all that strong but I honestly thought the the FED might finally start the required upward adjustment in interest rates today.

Delaying the inevitable is not in the best long term interest of economic growth. The pump was primed with $4 trillion of debt and it is time for the economy to generate revenue in the traditional way, by expanding including reasonable increases in wages.

If a zero interest rate environment actually stimulated growth one might ask why countries or companies around the world ever paid a premium to borrow money.

In the real world disposable income of the labour force has to increase to keep the economy rolling along. The supression of incomes that occured over the past six years is coming to an end and inflation will not be far behind.

I am hopeful that sanity will prevail eventually but ever since we all fell down that rabbit hole and attended that crazy tea party we seem to have lost sight of what sanity ever meant.

#90 Vanecdotal on 09.17.15 at 5:19 pm

Ho-hum. Starting to believe we’re turning Japanese after all.

#25 B Riding Dirty

Curious where in tha Valley you’ve seen peeps lining up for townhomes? Surrey to Langley there’s swaths of unsold “brand new” units to choose from 3 years+ later and counting, and 1000’s more completing shortly.

“Tent people” are usually (entirely?) unemployed craigslisters paid cash to pose as buyers and camp out to drive the illusion of demand. Throw in a few more paid bodies-er-proxies for “investors” and the odd legitimate sucker & there’s your standard “New Release” line-up.

Standard marketing tactic employed to great effect, even if flirting with fraud. At best extremely unethical. Increases Kool-Aid consumption though.

#91 Retired Boomer - WI on 09.17.15 at 5:20 pm

“When the tightening starts”…

It will feel like two large thumbs pushing on, and eventually CRUSHING your wind pipe.

The good news is, for the rest of 2015 forgetaboutit, despite what piddley comments have emanated from MSM. Actually, the world is too indebted already -ON CHEAP MONEY.

Start raising rates, on past mortgages, new cars where you actually have to pay interest during the first 48 to 60 months? NOT gonna sell something that depreciates faster than a politician’s promises are you?

Yes, the fail to raise today marks the begin to fail parade.

It’s been a valiant run, but the dummies are winning now.

#92 Mel on 09.17.15 at 5:28 pm

Please Garth, give up on higher interest rates for a long….long time. World cannot afford higher interest rates because it is becoming more evident every day, the world is in too much debt.

For over 30 years, interest rate went lower and lower to keep consumption humming. Well, it spent all of that money. There is no more future consumption, there is only debt.

The Feds for sometime now is feeding the system with lies, after lies. It cannot do anything for the economy. It has screw up, and sooner we realize it is fools who run the Fed. system, the sooner we can all repair our balance sheets. There will be no more milk and honey for a long time. Get ready!

#93 Marcus on 09.17.15 at 5:28 pm

It’s a done deal that will happen at some time in the future. – I’m a damn genius!

#94 Londoner on 09.17.15 at 5:29 pm

#86 Fed-up with the Fed

The Fed has no credibility? Seriously? Did they ever say they were going to raise rates in Sept? No. And guess what – they still control the FFR so everyone is still going to hang off every word they say no matter what they do.

#95 bob dog on 09.17.15 at 5:30 pm

I would like to know when the financial terrorists of 2007 are going to be held accountable for their crimes against humanity.

Also Darth Cheney and his little puppet Bush.

#96 MD on 09.17.15 at 5:35 pm

Looks like someone stole the trigger from the FED gun and has promised to return it when U.S. Debt will reach 22.5 Trillion. I am sure most of the people writing on this blog don’t even know how many Zeroes are there in a trillion, just kidding no offense. The game will change only than and it’s just a couple of years away till this happens, that’s when the creditors will ask for more interest on their bond buying. From now till than expect max rate hike of 0.3-0.45 that too with a lot of cautionary words from Yellen and her gang. I enjoy reading this blog as it improves my financial knowledge. By the way if you haven’t googled it yet a Trillion has 12 zeroes.

#97 David on 09.17.15 at 5:35 pm

The delay to raise rates is all about the asymmetric risks associated with raising too early vs raising too late.

The raise rates camp has been spitting out a multitude of reasons for a hike that are not particularly compelling. Inflation is well under control and can be dealt with relatively easily. Weimar we ain’t. There’s still plenty of underutilized capacity in the economy and it’s riskier to hike rates and potentially write off those businesses and workers rather than allow a little inflation to run.

Canadian housing bubble? Yes, definitely, but not the Fed’s problem. End CMHC insurance for all new mortgages starting tomorrow, this would probably be more effective than a rate rise anyway.

#98 Mel on 09.17.15 at 5:38 pm

One more thing Garth, by next year in Canada, we shall see 5 year mortgage rates at 2%.

I would not recommend people to lock in their mortgage. Mind you, I would not buy real estate even if they gave me money for free. Long term, interest rates will go up, however, first we will be in deflation for many years to pay off our debts.

#99 TurnerNation on 09.17.15 at 5:42 pm

Getting this one in early: 350th?

A fresh round of Long Branch millionaires today was minted.

#100 mark on 09.17.15 at 5:54 pm

Never make predictions, Garth.

No one knows anything.

#101 BC Guy on 09.17.15 at 6:01 pm

” now leaning dangerously left …”

Give me a break. Under the Cons, the C$ has collapsed, the Canadian stock market as dropped 15%, oil prices have tanked, real estate bubble inflated to dangerous levels, wealth disparity at an all-time high and continuing to grow, the Cons “balanced the budget” but cut OAS, democracy in Canada has fallen down a slippery slope, environmental collapse around us, record number of forest fires in BC, Alberta, NWT, hottest summer on record, whole communities scorched or flooded, fisheries in a collapse worldwide, Pacific garbage pile as large as Texas and growing … sheesh Garth wake up.

Garth, all you seem to care about is whether your millions will be taxed at 15% by the Cons or a 17% by the NDP.

#102 Edith on 09.17.15 at 6:04 pm

So now, if it becomes true that the Fed doesn’t raise rates until the Spring of 2016 – expect single family homes in Vancouver to keep rising in value even further. Maybe not by much, but there is a drastic listings shortage, high demand, a robust economy, pressure from overseas buyers (debatable by how much but it’s there) and a generational transfer of wealth taking place.

There’s no reason for a drop in values – none.

#103 john duffy on 09.17.15 at 6:06 pm

What ever happened to “green shoots?” The fed are nothing but a bunch of liars. There is no economic recovery. If you measure unemployment the way it used to be measured, it is 23%, not 5.1%.

#104 marnic on 09.17.15 at 6:07 pm

55 Head Fakes in a row…anyone fallen for it yet? Oh right…

#105 Chris on 09.17.15 at 6:16 pm

All this low rate thing is crazy. It is putting the whole world on drugs. Why would anybody think this is normal. It is not.

#106 Keith in Calgary on 09.17.15 at 6:20 pm

You are wrong again Garth.

Japan & Co. has been in a ZIRP scenario since 1998 according to the BIS.

Lotta good it has done them eh ? We’re screwed.

#107 Keith in Calgary on 09.17.15 at 6:22 pm

Drove thru the Nanaimo hinterland today, as well as the coastal highway 1A along Ladysmith,Chemainus, Cowichan Bay, etc……..lots of lots (heh) and single family property for sale. Pretty mouldy looking realtors signs too.

#108 Nemesis on 09.17.15 at 6:26 pm

“The contrast with Canada, now leaning dangerously left politically…”… HonGT

#TheWayBackMachineTakesUsTo… #FuddleDuddleLand

https://youtu.be/YXKSGRyZtz8

#109 Rational Optimist on 09.17.15 at 6:30 pm

62 Kilby on 09.17.15 at 3:49 pm

I didn’t know those two were still around! They’re still the best, apparently.

#110 prairieboy43 on 09.17.15 at 6:33 pm

At #107 Keith in Cowtown. I echo your statements. Quiet up Island.

#111 Debate on 09.17.15 at 6:35 pm

A surplus, manufacturing strength, no housing bubble in the foreseeable future, oil bottoming, 67% want to keep TFSA and now no Fed rate hike. A Harper minority government coming.

#112 'normal' interest rate on 09.17.15 at 6:35 pm

#105 Chris
All this low rate thing is crazy. It is putting the whole world on drugs. Why would anybody think this is normal. It is not.

===

A quick google search will tell you that there is absolutely no “scientific” or economic definition for “normal interest rate”.

#113 Smoking Man on 09.17.15 at 6:36 pm

Bit off topic but I must warn you of what’s coming down the pipe here in Ontario. The total castration of anything male.

Listing 1010 am, the scene,

Kathleen Wynne at a center for abused woman was taking questions. A man asks, have you ever been assaulted, she leads into it slowly, guess she need some time for the onion to kick in.
Full blown crocodile tears. Whimpering that it was basically men’s fault for not getting the promotion or this and that. She finishes by saying no I’ve never been assaulted.

Made it clear to me and my suspicions confirmed.

This premier is on an all out assault on anything with a dangler. Ladies that includes your hubby, your son, your grandfather. Your unborn grandson..

So then a caller calls in, a female, also very upset, apparently she was physically and sexually assaulted by an other female. Every support place she turned to shunned her, ridiculed her. She has no place to turn, the only pounce on men it seems, who would have known.

In other words, no such thing as an aggressive abusive female out there. Just all men are bad ass.

Then this

Top British MSM Feminist Says Put Men in Concentration Camps
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1JQUG7doCE

This is funny.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PwYN7l–3oY

#114 Obvious Truth on 09.17.15 at 6:38 pm

#102 Edith

That’s what the people on this blog from Calgary were saying about their town a few months ago. My how things change.

Janet will raise. YOY numbers will change as oil bottoms. Even if it goes nowhere. The world just got a huge tax cut. Watch it go.

Markets did what they always do on fed day – not much.

#115 My Life is a Pile of Shit on 09.17.15 at 6:41 pm

“So when the tightening begins, it will carry on for at least a couple of years – until 0% now turns into something north of 3% in 2017.”

Did you think you were getting guidance from the Fed? It was misinformation all along! Raising the rate is a ruse, and now the bluff has been called! 3% Fed funds rate in 2017 is a fantasy! What can you say about an economy that can’t withstand a rate hike of 25 basis points (finally admitted by the Fed itself)? Do you think a few months will make a difference? You drank the Fed’s Kool-Aid, and although your eyes are open, they might as well be closed. I’m sure you won’t publish this comment, because this is too much truth for your blog, and what will your acolytes think?

#116 SWL1976 on 09.17.15 at 6:43 pm

#9 gut check

Look – and this is important…
They didn’t raise rates because they CAN’T raise rates.

this isn’t incompetence, it’s a coup.

Once you accept this, everything else gets easier. Okay it gets exceptionally terrifying and disorienting to the point of utter hopelessness for a while, but after *that* it gets easier.

I agree.

People need to wake up and understand the US Federal Reserve for what it is. A giant scam on the American people and the people of the world. It is time we all acknowledged and accepted this and get on with our lives. It really does suck though just how much power and influence they have over us, but also in part because we give it to them.

Our current economic system is so dysfunctional and broken that no amount of QE, ZIRP, NIRP, or ‘normalization’ of interest rates is going to solve the problem.

We cannot kick the can much further

I know there are the people who say that things are ok and that the world is not coming to an end. People who say; every generation thinks that the end is near. However, aside from being on the brink of a major currency collapse, we are also facing an ecological disaster that will really put our value for paper and electronic currency, and numbers in one’s portfolio into perspective.

The biggest game changer in the coming years of living through this economic collapse (and it is happening) is going to be that; unlike previous generations and civilizations before us. Most everything that sustains human life on this planet is very sick or dying. Our ecosystem which is far more important than our debt based economy is sick. Very sick. Most people are so disconnected from mother earth and ignorant to this simple fact.

Until we reach a critical mass of critical thinking and a mass awakening by the masses, I would expect more of the same. We will remain living within a deteriorating and failing economic system that only values money and material things. A system that serves the ultra rich while further taxing working class to remain poor. There are no easy answers but relying on the Federal Reserve and central banks is only a race to the bottom. A race to the bottom in which we all will lose.

While the masses were consumed with consuming the rules of the game were changed.

We need a reset

#117 Brian on 09.17.15 at 6:44 pm

What a shitty time to be a houseless working schmuck.

#118 Macrath on 09.17.15 at 6:51 pm

You would think that at least one of the geniuses running the central banks could explain to us how this continuous zero interest rate world is supposed to function.
Like maybe explain why we are stuck in a situation not seen since the dark ages.

Do they really think people will continue lending money to deadbeat governments and others indefinitely for nothing.

Like many blog dogs today I also believe the global economy is in seriously deep debt dodo, run by a bunch of clowns, and today was an eye opener.

#119 mitzerboy aka queencity kid on 09.17.15 at 6:55 pm

seems like the fed mite b helpin out steve h to git back in

the fed don’t like the herb … even if they can tax it
the herb is the healin of the nations

#120 Conrad on 09.17.15 at 6:56 pm

The fed is scared to hike even 25 bps. What will be any different on Oct 28th? The Chinese economy is a huge ship, that’s not turning around in a month. That is the reason they gave for not hiking, what makes you think that will change?

I still say another round of QE is most likely the next move before any kind of rate hike (maybe 2025, but not 2015)

#121 Canadian on 09.17.15 at 6:57 pm

#96 MD on 09.17.15 at 5:35 pm
I am sure most of the people writing on this blog don’t even know how many Zeroes are there in a trillion, just kidding no offense. The game will change only than and it’s just a couple of years away till this happens, that’s when the creditors will ask for more interest on their bond buying.

___________________________________________

I wonder how many of us, as you imply, stupid people, know the difference between “than” and “then”. Can you tell me that oh great sage of knowledge?

#122 OXI in GREECE !! on 09.17.15 at 6:58 pm

Nonetheless, we’re almost there. The US is growing robustly and employment is swelling fast.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

1. No its not

2. I have a framed picture on my wall that says "The Fed will raise rates tomorrow"

#123 OXI in GREECE !! on 09.17.15 at 6:59 pm

http://www.cruisingdaytona.com/ebimage/LAT/1094.jpg

Replace Free Beer with Fed Rate Hike

#124 Vundo on 09.17.15 at 7:00 pm

Seems like good news for some of us. If BOC follows them as often as Garth says, it means we are not destined for rising rates here very soon. I see that as more time for people to get debt paid off before it gets more expensive to carry it. I am the opposite of an expert in this area, but it sure makes more sense to me to expect rates to return to normal. I am always skeptical whenever anyone says or implies the words “new paradigm.” Rates will come back. Debt will be more expensive. House prices will be pulled back in from orbit. I don’t know when, but I can’t see any reason why it won’t happen. That’s more than enough to keep me away from the mortgagemonger for the foreseeable future.

#125 Godth on 09.17.15 at 7:02 pm

The USA total debt to GDP isn’t even at 350%, c’mon USA Grow! Grow! New goal, 400%.
http://www.macrotrends.net/1381/debt-to-gdp-ratio-historical-chart

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/

#126 S.Bby on 09.17.15 at 7:04 pm

#102 Edith (the realtor):
welcome back.

#127 The Signal & The Noise on 09.17.15 at 7:06 pm

Making predictions is futile.

I’ve looked everywhere and I could be wrong but no one predicted a $40 oil barrel this summer.

#128 Rich Young on 09.17.15 at 7:06 pm

Garth,

As expected. The employment rate is a statistical scam. It is calculated from those in labour force. Those that are on food stamps and welfare don’t count anymore making the employment rate look rosy. The USA is in a depression guised by retarded central bank policy that puts the USA in a bankrupt state. But, they have military power so good luck calling them on it.

This non-hike is proof that the doomers on your site are right. WE are in a depression. If the economy was actually growing they would hike rates. However, like the liars they always are, they blame other factors for the low rate policy that punishes savers.

I remain a renter but my wife is getting sick of waiting. We save tons a month and I’m happy here. She is not. So, if I wish to stay married I’m going to have to make the worst choice financially in 10 years… buy another home. Owned twice before and now we are going to pay 3x what we did for our last place!

What a joke!

#129 confuzed on 09.17.15 at 7:07 pm

I thought Garth recommended keeping mortgages variable, so now it’s lock it to a 5 or 10 year fixed?

#130 B Riding Dirty on 09.17.15 at 7:07 pm

#90 Vanecdotal on 09.17.15 at 5:19 pm
——————————————————————–
The address is 208th and 84th.
Place is called Yorkson Creek
Website: http://www.yorksoncreek.com/

And it had a propane camp fire for them to stay warm while they lined up.

Keep on drinking the purple koolaid Vanecdotal! Dont hate on me, i am drinking it too! Cheers, oh shit I got some on my shirt and that [email protected] never comes out!!

#131 They will not until... on 09.17.15 at 7:08 pm

The Fed will not raise rates until inflation picks up significantly. Whether that will happen depends as much on global circumstances (China etc) as on american consumption by consumers and businesses. So, it is far from certain that any raise will take place this year. The massive theft from the working and middle classes to the benefit of the investing classes will continue. (Yes, according to recent political science theory, we can still consider and define world political issues as class issues – the main class distinction now being investing classes vs non-investing classes.)

#132 LL on 09.17.15 at 7:10 pm

..”Close, but no cigar”…

Not even close..just ..no cigar!

It’s the 54 th meeting and no IR rise (as usual).

Looks like negative interest rate are coming as in Europe.

#133 B Riding Dirty on 09.17.15 at 7:14 pm

#20 Down ‘n Dirty on 09.17.15 at 2:28 pm
“In my work I get paid in international currency…USD….but I do hate to see my country being run into the ground by overpaid labour unions and turned into a third world ghetto where drug dealing or a civil service job is the only option to financial stability”

—————————————————————–

Well said, standing ovation!

#134 Nattie on 09.17.15 at 7:14 pm

A bit off-topic regarding the rate hike, but interesting:

http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/high-rise-more-upper-income-seattleites-renting/

#135 Scott on 09.17.15 at 7:16 pm

I guess if you say theirs no inflation you just gotta believe it…NOT

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/inflation-targeting-unmasked-todays-cpi-crushed-the-case-for-zirp/

Maybe when the job market in zimbabwe strengthens they’ll consider raising rates…NOT. The casino never closes in this central bank’s world of economic dystopia.

#136 Panhead on 09.17.15 at 7:25 pm

#49 salonist on 09.17.15 at 3:15 pm
jr. says you ain’t seen the end of the grocery price increase
so, as much as grocery items have increased in price,
consider the prices now, a bargain.
———————————————————
Thanx for the warning … got a moose tag to fill starting tomorrow…

#137 PJ on 09.17.15 at 7:29 pm

The Fed will most likely raise the rates by the end of the year, for if they don’t they will end up with a serious pension and hedge fund crisis on their hands.

Once the rates go up however, the rise of the USD will cause some serious deflationary ramifications on the American economy, thus endangering the world reserve status.

If they cut the rates on the other hand, there will be enormous influx of money coming from Europe and Japan, and could send the DOW to stratospheres before one final crash.

If you were a money junkie, what would you do?

Yup. Me too.

#138 BG on 09.17.15 at 7:31 pm

Predicting is futile.

But just for fun, we should all bet. I bet $100 the fed will not raise this year.

Seriously, there must be some website out where Garth could open a bet and we can all participate.

#139 hotdamn on 09.17.15 at 7:31 pm

Insane – our Toronto house since ’09 has increased over double. We bought at the right time and now its about selling at the right time. That might be next year, or do we stick it out and stay? Personally I hate Toronto but the increasing amount of house worth is making us stay a little longer. What say you?

#140 Babblemaster on 09.17.15 at 7:38 pm

“We got all hormonal for nothing.” – Garth

————————————————-

Not I. Ask my wife. Actually, I expect that we will see continued low rates and maybe more QE in the future.

#141 Oceanside on 09.17.15 at 7:40 pm

#107 Keith in Calgary on 09.17.15 at 6:22 pm
Drove thru the Nanaimo hinterland today, as well as the coastal highway 1A along Ladysmith,Chemainus, Cowichan Bay, etc……..lots of lots (heh) and single family property for sale. Pretty mouldy looking realtors signs too.

Try finding a decent rancher in Parksville, Nanoose or Qualicum under $500,000. Hardly any inventory and anything that is any good sells quickly, lots of folks from Sask., Manitoba, Alberta and the lower mainland. Best year for sales in a long time.

#142 Sherwood Park on 09.17.15 at 7:44 pm

The Fed will not increase rates on October 28 for the simple fact there is no presser scheduled after that particular meeting. Statement only.

#143 ANON on 09.17.15 at 7:44 pm

Once you see money as promises, whose value must mathematically diminish as more promises pile up on those already made, try seeing rates as trust in those promises. It makes forecasting a lot easier, and it’s also therapeutic in dealing with conspiracies and internet noise.
The Fed is rooting for the trust we all root for, but doing it at a time when reality begins to disagree with the mere concept.
Rates will rise, it’s just that they won’t rise voluntarily.

#144 Daisy Mae on 09.17.15 at 7:48 pm

#24: “Where you are wrong is in your repetitive predictions – it will happen on this date. As I said before, I don’t know, and neither do you, so quit trying to make it seem like you do.”

*****************

He has repeatedly given a few dates and readily admits it could be delayed somewhat — and it has — so what’s the problem?

#145 Daisy Mae on 09.17.15 at 7:53 pm

#31: “I’ll await Oct when you tell us December for sure. I promise.”

***************

What does it matter? It’ll happen, in due time.

#146 charles on 09.17.15 at 7:54 pm

Closing on the second Tuesday of November next year. Raising interest rates in an election year is a no no.
All is not lost, you still have the stackers to kick around.

#147 Deano on 09.17.15 at 7:57 pm

Garth is a lot more interesting when he doesn’t wax too political.

#148 Smoking Man on 09.17.15 at 7:59 pm

#69 Jakethesnake on 09.17.15 at 4:19 pm
Goddammit smoking man….I didn’t follow your fedora wearing, grapefruit sized advice bro…what do you think,I’m crazy or something? I drink and smoke but I’m not crazy you drunk genius, teacher tormentor you….

What I DID do was short usdcad to the tune of 168 contracts….like 42k in the margin acct. Everything was going swell and was ready to close the orders at 2:50pm for a nice 136k profit….then my damn laptop crashed. When I got it back up and running that retracement you always talk about took me back to par for crying out loud….I let 136k slip outta my hand….I should sue the laptop manufacturer…

Let me know if you wanna see my account history….you might be able to learn something about how I made a 615% profit in 4 months of trading….

As long as you can teach me more about batman.
……

No need to see history, believe you, your contracts with used capital are about right.

I have my own style that works for me. Yours will work for you.

You’re more of a cowboy, I loaded incrementally up to 300 contracts between 1.22 to 1.23

Two things will burn me in my quest for 1.4

Russia in Syria, tension spiking crude, or the Gutless Fed not sitting on there asses.

You have to addmit, trading, gambling is addictive..

#149 sideline sitter on 09.17.15 at 8:00 pm

Why does The Fed care about credibility? It’s not like people can go elsewhere

#150 Derek R on 09.17.15 at 8:06 pm

Sorry, everyone. I should have shared this with you when it came out in January. It’s been pretty well spot on for the last nine months. Still, better late than never!

Outlook 2015: Global Debt Deflation & Manipulated Asset Markets

#151 ANON on 09.17.15 at 8:08 pm

Bit of advice: try holding on to the most trusted and presently approved promises…the ones which someone might accept in direct exchange for essentials, when most other promises are broken and go up in smoke. If you can afford, then by all means, diversify your holdings of promises, but if you cannot afford, stick to the ones you can.
…Or not, whichever you choose, while the luxury of choice still exists.

#152 Smoking Man on 09.17.15 at 8:16 pm

#115 SWL1976 on 09.17.15 at 6:43 pm
#9 gut check

Look – and this is important…
They didn’t raise rates because they CAN’T raise rates.

this isn’t incompetence, it’s a coup.

Once you accept this, everything else gets easier. Okay it gets exceptionally terrifying and disorienting to the point of utter hopelessness for a while, but after *that* it gets easier.

I agree.

People need to wake up and understand the US Federal Reserve for what it is. A giant scam on the American people and the people of the world. It is time we all acknowledged and accepted this and get on with our lives. It really does suck though just how much power and influence they have over us, but also in part because we give it to them.

Our current economic system is so dysfunctional and broken that no amount of QE, ZIRP, NIRP, or ‘normalization’ of interest rates is going to solve the problem.

We cannot kick the can much further

I know there are the people who say that things are ok and that the world is not coming to an end. People who say; every generation thinks that the end is near. However, aside from being on the brink of a major currency collapse, we are also facing an ecological disaster that will really put our value for paper and electronic currency, and numbers in one’s portfolio into perspective.

The biggest game changer in the coming years of living through this economic collapse (and it is happening) is going to be that; unlike previous generations and civilizations before us. Most everything that sustains human life on this planet is very sick or dying. Our ecosystem which is far more important than our debt based economy is sick. Very sick. Most people are so disconnected from mother earth and ignorant to this simple fact.

Until we reach a critical mass of critical thinking and a mass awakening by the masses, I would expect more of the same. We will remain living within a deteriorating and failing economic system that only values money and material things. A system that serves the ultra rich while further taxing working class to remain poor. There are no easy answers but relying on the Federal Reserve and central banks is only a race to the bottom. A race to the bottom in which we all will lose.

While the masses were consumed with consuming the rules of the game were changed.

We need a reset
……..

Sort of like playing monopoly, someone eventually owns everything. In the game monopoly, you just start a new game. Winner has bragging rights.

When it happens in real life monopoly, history is litterd with kings heads on sticks who refused to start a new game.

But good luck waking the masses. Educational Industrial Complex has put the herd in a prophetical hypnosis were they have no hope of snapping out of.

Dr Smoking Man.
Phd Herdonomics.

#153 interest rates on 09.17.15 at 8:19 pm

5 year money for 2.2% rates are down for a long time still baby

#154 Nosty, etc. on 09.17.15 at 8:21 pm

“So, go ahead and be smug for a while. I can take it.”

Somewhat surprised you didn’t use Dilbert’s pointy-headed boss, aka Bernie Madoffwithyourmoneyhaha, as a fine example of how not to invest.

Most don’t realize that we are walking on the face of a living life form, namely this planet and when it gets ticked off at us parasites for treating it poorly, it react in various ways, but climate change is not one of them.

Hence, ‘quakes, volcanoes, cyclones, tornadoes etc. and here’s another — NASA given fair warning, and the Sahara Desert — previous cycles; Hijiinks How are the dinglenutz able to freeze the US debt for 175 days? CC – bribing writers; EU breaking away from US? Monsanto and the WWF GMO Amazon.

#155 Randy Randerson on 09.17.15 at 8:25 pm

Why are people so angry on the comment section today? So what if the Fed doesn’t raise rate today, it’s not like you depended on it. Get on with your lives, people. Go smell some flowers, play with your dogs/kids, and talk to chicks/guys.

#156 Republic_of_Western_Canada on 09.17.15 at 8:39 pm

#69 Jakethesnake on 09.17.15 at 4:19 pm
[…]
What I DID do was short usdcad to the tune of 168 contracts….like 42k in the margin acct. Everything was going swell and was ready to close the orders at 2:50pm for a nice 136k profit….then my damn laptop crashed. When I got it back up and running that retracement you always talk about took me back to par for crying out loud….I let 136k slip outta my hand….I should sue the laptop manufacturer…

What on earth are you trading on a subprime system for? Got a death wish? On a consumer-grade laptop no less. Probably with some vile piece of ms software out of Redmond too, no doubt.

Even for a retail trader, you should have at least a server-grade desk computer c/w redundant SAS drives in an old-fashioned RAID5 configuration, with high-end stable client/server or web software running on top-grade Linux or Solaris. With backup HD and video cards ready for deployment. And dual internet feeds based on two different technologies from 2 different vendors. All running off an industry-grade Alpha UPS. And a complete (cheaper) hot-backup system running right beside it on the same UPS. And both a land line and a cellphone with your [investment grade] broker on speed-dial.

For a total outlay, you’d still be ahead over a hundred grand right now. Know what else? It’ll happen again if you don’t make changes.

#157 gut check on 09.17.15 at 8:45 pm

#105 Chris on 09.17.15 at 6:16 pm
All this low rate thing is crazy. It is putting the whole world on drugs. Why would anybody think this is normal. It is not.
________________________________

How long does it have to go on before you accept that it is, in fact, normal ? I’m not being facetious, just curious.

#158 Smoking Man on 09.17.15 at 8:47 pm

Watching debate, Trudeau is a wing nut..

Mulcair a blue tie disguised as orange doing ok.

Harpo, as much as I despise his Neocon ideology, my wallet comes first..

#159 addicted on 09.17.15 at 8:48 pm

People addicted to income from high interest rate are similar to people addicted to welfare, when it comes to the feeling of entitlement.

#160 learningfromyou on 09.17.15 at 8:49 pm

Garth, it will happen somewhere in the future, for sure.

Please could you provide some guidance to our lack of knowledge in how to invest properly, some time ago I bought some ETFs, they have gone south in value and dividends paid does not cover the losses, also you mentioned that some ETFs were not good to buy, I’d love to read from you comments about it.

#161 gut check on 09.17.15 at 8:53 pm

@ #151 Smoking Man on 09.17.15 at 8:16 pm
and
@ #115 SWL1976 on 09.17.15 at 6:43 pm

you both pretty much covered it.
of all of it – for me – the most distressing aspect is the poisoning and modifying of our food and water.

Whether it be through purposeful acts like genetic modification and weather engineering or via industrial pollution and animal die-offs as byproducts of industrial carelessness I think we are in for a rough go of it until we get our heads out of our asses and press our weight against the machine that is hell bent on destroying what it can’t sell back to us.

#162 Nora Lenderby on 09.17.15 at 8:53 pm

#115 SWL1976 on 09.17.15 at 6:43 pm
Most everything that sustains human life on this planet is very sick or dying. Our ecosystem which is far more important than our debt based economy is sick. Very sick. Most people are so disconnected from mother earth and ignorant to this simple fact.

Yes. There are disconnected/ignorant and then there are stupidly wilful who ignore reality.

We juggled hard for a long time, clever monkeys that we are, but the term for an organism that exhausts its ecological niche?

Extinct.

#163 Vanecdotal on 09.17.15 at 8:53 pm

MSM finally waking up, advertisers be dammed? Corroborates what I’ve noticed for the last 8-10 years in those Gen Xrs & a few Ys who won’t sell their starter condo/townhome and crystallize a loss, and/or can’t afford to move up to a larger home more suitable to the size of their growing family. All earning well above median Van household income.

. http://www.vancouversun.com/business/affordability/metro+vancouver+families+trapped+starter+homes/11370219/story.html?__lsa=daf5-27b5

“We wanted to point out there’s a real lack of units that are appropriate for families,” said Andy Broderick, Vancity CEO of impact marketing development. “The efficiency units that a $65,000 dualincome family can really afford is probably around $400,000, but these are typically 400 square feet – not ideal for families… People are jammed in quarters that are less than ideal and couples are putting off starting their families,” Broderick said.

He said some families are making the choice to leave Metro Vancouver because of the lack of affordability.

“If you want to keep families in the Lower Mainland,” he said, “you have to make sure the units they need are hitting the market.”

> and this:

” While apartments are the most affordable solution in Metro Vancouver, the majority have two bedrooms or less
38% were detached properties; typical price of $1,159,600
Minimum down payment: $231,920 (20% down payment required on properties over $1 million)
Annual household income: more than $159,150 to be affordable
17% were attached properties typical price of $511,500
Minimum down payment: $25,575 (5%)
Annual household income: more than $86,364
45% were apartments; typical price of $405,400
Minimum down payment: $20,045 (5%)
Annual household income: more than $68,438

In 2014, median total income for Millennials in Metro Vancouver about $32,746, translating to an annual household income of $65,492 for dual-income families.”

YIKES. Median (PRE-tax?) income for Gen Y in 604 @ $12k above poverty line. Bunch of “entitled brats”./sarc OFF.

Bye-bye move-up buyers and future tax-base. Hello increased immigration to compensate for the dearth of young & able tax-paying bodies necessary to support the looming wave of govn’t entitlements for our aging population. Quite the rabbit hole we’ve built for ourselves(!) History will not judge our “leadership” of this epoch kindly imho.

#164 paddler on 09.17.15 at 8:53 pm

No wonder people think interest rates will never go up. How many times have we read on this blog in the past year that interest rates will be going up. Nothing has happened yet and I doubt that they will go up this year. I say it again, nobody can predict the future. Look at the Global mess we are in. Look at China, look at Europe who knows what will happen in the next few month in the Global picture. Things can change in a hurry. It would not surprise me if in 6 month from now interest rates would still be where they are today.

All I see right now is that interest rates were lowered to stimulate the economy. What I see is that it stimulated the borrowing power for cheap loans and increased the debt load of families. The banks created a powder keg and know very well what is going to happen if they increase interest rates. Just my 2 cents for what it’s worth.

#165 AfterTheHouseSold on 09.17.15 at 8:55 pm

#133 hotdamn
“Personally I hate Toronto but the increasing amount of house worth is making us stay a little longer. What say you?”

I say don’t be greedy. It’s better to be a day early than a day late. Sell.

#166 Trojan House on 09.17.15 at 8:55 pm

#115 SWL1976 on 09.17.15 at 6:43 pm

You have your history wrong. Better go back and study what the Federal Reserve was established (and for that you have to go back even further than 1913) for and what the American Congress did to it in 1917.

Once you understand what happened then you will see that it was not the Fed but Congress that created the mess we’re in to today.

#167 Yuus bin Haad on 09.17.15 at 8:59 pm

With apologies to Homer Simpson: Central bankers. Is there anything they don’t know?

#168 Harper is FINISHED on 09.17.15 at 9:07 pm

Debate on 09.17.15 at 6:35 pm
A surplus, manufacturing strength, no housing bubble in the foreseeable future, oil bottoming, 67% want to keep TFSA and now no Fed rate hike. A Harper minority government coming

__;________________________________

Harper is going to get smoked. Harper will suffer a humiliating defect. It’s a fact.

#169 Ogopogo on 09.17.15 at 9:08 pm

Live: Federal leaders debate in Calgary

For what it’s worth, Mulcair is the only one so far in this debate who has explicitly denounced the Canadian housing bubble, citing the nosebleed prices of bungalows in Vancouver and Toronto. Trudeau dodged the question, and Harper just harped on about the home renovation credit.

This is not an endorsement, just reporting facts.

#170 tundra pete on 09.17.15 at 9:08 pm

Lucky for the indebted……….for now! It’s like waiting for the Leafs to score or win a game. You wait, wait then boom, it finally happens.

Consider it a period of grace. Those don’t happen very often. So take advantage. Google what happened in the early 80’s if you are to young to remember.

#171 Sheane Wallace on 09.17.15 at 9:12 pm

#28 Butch on 09.17.15 at 2:37 pm
Markets will freak again in October.

Rinse, repeat, no rise.

I’ll put money on it. Just like I did today (and won).

————————
The only winners today were gold and gold miners. Very minor variations in Fx

#172 Smoking Man on 09.17.15 at 9:12 pm

Wait, Mulcair is droping corp taxes on small business.

I look in the mirror. He thats me.. Soon as Wynee bird hits me with the pension bomb, We stop drawing salary’s and take everything in divideds.

Now hes saying droping C51 ..

Fk

This is going to be hard.

Justin is so not ready..

#173 For those about to flop... on 09.17.15 at 9:14 pm

If the Fed raised the rate I would have gone to work tomorrow .
They didn’t raise the rate so I will still go to work.
Other people’s problems…

#174 CON Harper and CON wolf Mulcair on 09.17.15 at 9:15 pm

Con Harper and CON wolf Mulcair getting spanked by Trudeau. Trudeau being honest and upfront with Canadians while CONs and CON wolf Mulcair playing politics and not answering the questions.

#175 Smoking Man on 09.17.15 at 9:28 pm

#172 CON Harper and CON wolf Mulcair on 09.17.15 at 9:15 pm
Con Harper and CON wolf Mulcair getting spanked by Trudeau. Trudeau being honest and upfront with Canadians while CONs and CON wolf Mulcair playing politics and not answering the questions…..
….

If thats the way you see, you’re insane.

Justin is just as retarted if not more than Wynee.

I’m liking tom. To bad I’ll be living in the usa come election time . cant vote

#176 SWL1976 on 09.17.15 at 9:35 pm

#164 Trojan House

#115 SWL1976

You have your history wrong. Better go back and study what the Federal Reserve was established (and for that you have to go back even further than 1913) for and what the American Congress did to it in 1917.

Once you understand what happened then you will see that it was not the Fed but Congress that created the mess we’re in to today.

————————————–

I mentioned nothing of history. I simply mentioned that the US Federal Reserve is a scam on the American people and the people of the world. Which it is.

Care to enlighten us?

#177 Steve French on 09.17.15 at 9:45 pm

this one’s for Mr. Herdonomics, Dr. Smoking Man

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9637452/why-ive-finally-given-up-on-the-left/

#178 Trudeau spanks the two Cons on 09.17.15 at 9:53 pm

Canadians screaming Trudeau across Canada…. Trudeau surprised Canada in this debate. Trudeau won the debate hands down. Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau Trudeau

#179 Gonkman on 09.17.15 at 9:56 pm

#172 CON Harper and CON wolf Mulcair on 09.17.15 at 9:15 pm
Con Harper and CON wolf Mulcair getting spanked by Trudeau. Trudeau being honest and upfront with Canadians while CONs and CON wolf Mulcair playing politics and not answering the questions…..

—-

Lol… Yeah Justin the Man. “Interest Rates are Low! LETS SPEND MONEY!! Wooo hooo!”

Only 30 Billion plus over 3 years.. lol.

His comments probably appeal to all the people still buying RE at these prices. Money’s cheap why not.

Justin send me a check for a Million… I will send 1/2 to Smoking Man and he can double it up for me when the Fed finally spikes the ball.

I like how none of them had the balls to tell Canadians to STOP Spending and Pay down your debts.

But hey that doesn’t get you elected.

#180 Trudeau spanks the two Cons on 09.17.15 at 9:58 pm

Smokingman #173…..Conservatives are liars and you claim to be a master liar and so you know that Trudeau spanked CON harper and CON wolf Mulcair.

#181 Smoking Man on 09.17.15 at 10:01 pm

#175 Steve French on 09.17.15 at 9:45 pm
this one’s for Mr. Herdonomics, Dr. Smoking Man

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/9637452/why-ive-finally-given-up-on-the-left/
……
Its got to be morning down under. No hang over?

Listening to the newly schooled on tv under 25..they love Justin.

Save the trees, spend money, hurt the man…

To be young again is what im thinking. Not this generation.

Thank god I was born in a time where you could say to a pretty girl..

Your beautiful…I want to take care of you for the rest of your life. And you did.

Its what real men do and did.

Today’s man….

Forget it. Worship wynee and justin…knock your self out.

#182 joblo on 09.17.15 at 10:02 pm

What I learnt today:

“Well look……..”
“look………”
“look…….”
“We are in a fragile global economy” repeat a billion times

No new ideas, same old same old
So screwed!

#183 Cici on 09.17.15 at 10:03 pm

I won’t take any stabs at Garth; in a sea of talking heads, he’s one of the only voices of reason.

Unfortunately, I no longer believe in the rising interest rates meme. But it’s not Garth’s fault that Janet’s: Seriously. Way. Too. Dovish. The right time to start hiking was now or never, and I don’t think it will get better than this for a while. For cryzakes, they didn’t even have the guts to raise rates by .15%, and in the near future all kinds of threats are looming: sucky oil driving down markets, a shaky Europe now even shakier under a huge influx of migration, China’s debt Dragon, and so forth.

It’s not looking good out there…

#184 eddy on 09.17.15 at 10:06 pm

gee i guess i must be abnormal, i like low interest rates.
all you hypnotized moonies wishing for higher interest rates should take a pill, i suggest Zyprexa

#185 eddy on 09.17.15 at 10:11 pm

#166 Harper is FINISHED on 09.17.15 at 9:07 pm

Debate on 09.17.15 at 6:35 pm
A surplus, manufacturing strength, no housing bubble in the foreseeable future, oil bottoming, 67% want to keep TFSA and now no Fed rate hike. A Harper minority government coming

__;________________________________

Harper is going to get smoked. Harper will suffer a humiliating defect. It’s a fact.

agreed, wanna empty a room?………….

play Beatles music

no one told Harpo

#186 Trojan House on 09.17.15 at 10:12 pm

#174 SWL1976

How is it a scam on the American people? You can’t call it a scam without knowing the history of it. Again, the real scam came fro the Congress.

#187 Cici on 09.17.15 at 10:14 pm

#112 Smoking Man

Trying to fill the blog with 200 comments, you missed that call. It’s 10 p.m. and we’re still under 200.

Now seriously, about your comment. Cry me a river.

How do you think most of the women on this blog feel? I guarantee you that it’s much harder to survive (especially in the workplace) without a dangler, thank you very much.

I work about 150% harder than certain male colleagues of mine, who get 200% more credit for producing absolute crap. All because I don’t have a dangler, and because danglers look out for danglers.

Seriously, knowing what I know now, if I had had the choice in early childhood, I would have opted for the dangler just to get an easier ride.

#188 Leo Trollstoy on 09.17.15 at 10:18 pm

Not sure why everybody is so concerned about the Fed today. As I’ve said before and I’m saying again, the exact timing of the hike is irrelevant.

It’s coming.

Be prepared.

Jobs are plentiful. Get one. And wait.

#189 for Smoking Man on 09.17.15 at 10:22 pm

I ended up with an older woman at a club last night. She looked pretty good for a 60-year-old.

In fact, she wasn’t too bad at all, and I found myself thinking that she probably had a really hot daughter.

We drank a bit, and we had a bit of a snuggle, and she asked if I ever had a
‘Sportsman’s Double?’.

‘What’s that?’ I asked.

‘It’s a mother and daughter threesome,’ she said.

‘Oh…’ I said as my mind began to embrace the idea,

‘No, I haven’t.’

And I wondered what this daughter of hers might look like.

We drank a bit more, then she says with a wink that tonight was ‘my lucky night’.

I went back to her place.

We walked in.

She put on the hall light and shouted upstairs:

‘Mom, you still awake’?

#190 Leo Trollstoy on 09.17.15 at 10:23 pm

#171 For those about to flop… on 09.17.15 at 9:14 pm

Agree.

Smart.

This person gets it.

#191 saskatoon on 09.17.15 at 10:24 pm

#185 Cici

you’re in the wrong industry.

try porn.

#192 Leo Trollstoy on 09.17.15 at 10:25 pm

#156 Smoking Man on 09.17.15 at 8:47 pm

Yeah JT lost that one.

#193 Smoking Man on 09.17.15 at 10:26 pm

The reason some woman hate men and switch teams and shave they’re heads, they we’re not lucky enough to have stong fathers, brothers to protect them against dip shit predator ass wipe men.

Its funny sort of, what woman would trully want to be a stay at home mom, love her kids. And not worry about shit.

The educational industrial complex has a problem with that. Lets squeeze out more labour making widgets , get the bitches working two for the price of one.

What really makes a mom happy. Her kids.

Brain wash her, get a nany, make your mark your special.

When in her mind, she just want to be with her beautiful children at the park, buy them ice cream, kiss them all over.

But conditioning, school, brain washing..

Beautiful woman are doomed.

Now get me the report bitch..and my starbucks order. Orders given by her female boss.

#194 Smoking Man on 09.17.15 at 10:37 pm

#185 Cici on 09.17.15 at 10:14 pm
#112 Smoking Man

Trying to fill the blog with 200 comments, you missed that call. It’s 10 p.m. and we’re still under 200.

Now seriously, about your comment. Cry me a river.

How do you think most of the women on this blog feel? I guarantee you that it’s much harder to survive (especially in the workplace) without a dangler, thank you very much.

I work about 150% harder than certain male colleagues of mine, who get 200% more credit for producing absolute crap. All because I don’t have a dangler, and because danglers look out for danglers.

Seriously, knowing what I know now, if I had had the choice in early childhood, I would have opted for the dangler just to get an easier ride.
……

You just missed a lesson, probably smoking dope when I was in the lecture hall.

If you played it right, you would have found a sucker, thought you we’re amazing. You failed.

Work, a job, thats for idiots.

Casino now god damn it…

#195 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 09.17.15 at 10:43 pm

KEEP THIS SKIPPER ON THE JOB

The debate was interesting: Mr. Harper kept his cool, inspite of being heckled by the two others; and Mssrs. Mulcair and Trudeau looked like two kids fighting in a sand box over a very important “toy” the future of Canada.

Mr. Harper repeatedly spoke of his government’s various economic programs.

But most of all her said over and over how economic activity ALWAYS RESULTS FROM LOWER TAXATION.

It’s something the other two putative PMs never addressed as if they’ve never heard of that economic reality.

Mssrs. Mulcair and Trudeau are not up to the job and should remain on the Opposition benches.

Mr. Harper has ALSO BEEN IN OFFICE AS PM FOR THE PAST NEARLY 10 YEARS.

He was there for the GFC and took actions that were, rightly or wrongly, actions that did keep the lid on our economy.

He also mentioned over and over how these economic times are very tough and unstable in the world.

Of course they are. And never more so than on this date when the US Central Bank literally chickened out and did not jack the rate by a miserly quarter of a point.

The US Fed STILL has next to no interest rate wiggle room should something “bad” happn, and it is:

-with migrants pouring into an overstressed Europe;

-China on the economic ropes;

-Russia now firmly planting a big military contingent in Syria and telling the Yanks to screw off;

-tepid economic growth throughout the Emerging Markets.

And some of you want to vote Mr. Harper out of office?

Are you plain nuts?

#196 cd on 09.17.15 at 10:57 pm

The fed has two types of regular meetings: 1) they meet and then they release a statement; and 2) same as 1) but they also have a press conference afterwards. Since changing rates is big stuff, they would want to do it when there is a press conference scheduled afterwards. So with that logic they could have done it this time, definitely won’t do it in oct, and possibly might do it in dec, or they have to wait till next march.

#197 MF on 09.17.15 at 10:58 pm

#6 HD on 09.15.15 at 5:17 pm

Thank you for the article.

I’ve realized that no one has any clue what the future of the market holds. The best thing to do is just have a plan and stick to it like an emotionless robot. Basically what Garth recommends (to the guy yesterday who mentioned the suck ups among us -count me in. Don’t care). The past month was a bit of a rollercoaster as I saw my portfolio go deep in the red. I’m still down big, but I’m determined to just ride it out and resist the urge to panic sell, which is way stronger than I had imagined. So far so good.

After spending two years learning, and the last six months watching my etf’s go red, I think that you need to just zone out the market most of the time and enjoy life.

For those that missed it:

http://www.dividendmantra.com/2015/08/time-in-the-market-trumps-timing-the-market-for-the-long-term-investor/

Thanks again for the link HD. I will read it and report back.

MF

#198 JimH on 09.17.15 at 11:00 pm

What a frolicsome and hilarious last few days on this blog!
So many so fanically focused on whether or not their prediction is “right”. Precious few have shared their insights into what a prudent investor should consider vis a vis the eventual rise in rates!
Personally, I’d rather be rich than right, and recently gave my opinion on what I considered a prudent move; lighten up on treasuries, hold but not increase bonds; wait for a good entry into preferred and go heavier weighting on equities.
Those who waste their time and limited brainpower arguing over predictions or smugly denying the obvious reality that “price is the only thing that pays”, should of course stick to their childish and impotent ramblings.
Read Janet Yellen carefully and with the respect she has earned. I followed her carefully over tha last few years and got the strong impression she had a fantastic grasp of reality and the future path most conducive to the interests of the United States.
So many of you poor wannabes seem to think you are so much intelligent and astute compared to this outstanding Fed Chair, who has so far been right far more often than wrong.
You couldn’t keep up an intelligent conversation with Janet Yellen for more than 30 seconds if continued ownership of your testicles depended on it.
As for the outright silly and stupid conspiracy theorists that worm their way in here; for god sakes; perhaps you might just, with great effort, contribute something intelligent and meaningful to an investment blog???? (I notice with chagrin that you utterly fail to give us any useful tips for the upcoming Zombie Apocalypse!)
I do not apologize for the rant. Nor do I apologize for my wealth.
I didn’t always deserve or ‘earn’ it, and was quick to reap where I hadn’t sown; but I never made a nickel by winning a pointless and silly argument!

Now; take your ‘winnings’ to the bank!

#199 Dan on 09.17.15 at 11:03 pm

Holding cash, some government bonds, and puts on the S&P500 until this turkey blows up. Preferreds, REITs and global equities are in ugly downtrends that will continue.

#200 M on 09.17.15 at 11:08 pm

Gartho baby.. I drink Grey Goose.. so feel free to pay your respects. :)
Yes, FED will rise interest rates in October…but the year is unspecified :)
Maybe 2044 or so
They WILL raise well before that but only because MrMarket will force them to. And China man. This will happen soon when Dow will explode downwards…is just a matter of weeks.
Meanwhile in Kanukistan.. Mr Harper will have a fair chance to win peddling more house$hit. The others do too but Harpy is better at it.
And in a last ditch morons will vote for him.
Oh..I forgot… Our cdn rates will go DOWN.. in October :)
Start counting from then and the big padapadaboom in housing march-april 2016. It so happens that all those fracking loans, and derivatives on the loans and/or barrel insurance will be coming due by that time also.
Worth having gold and silver thinking the debacle of the canadian dollar.

#201 Keith on 09.17.15 at 11:13 pm

@193 Victoria tea party

When tax cuts go so far, they don’t create any economic activity, you have Canada today. Idle capital doesn’t create jobs, doesn’t grow the economy. You prescribe even more of the same?

http://behindthenumbers.ca/2014/08/19/the-truth-behind-corporate-tax-cuts-in-one-chart/

#202 rate policy on 09.17.15 at 11:13 pm

Nobody owes you high interest rate because you have some money.

Guess what? The FED can print more than you will ever have, without sweat, unlike you can put it together the drops in the bucket.

Suck it up.

#203 MF on 09.17.15 at 11:22 pm

#13 Londoner on 09.15.15 at 5:42 pm

Great post. Touche.

So Yellen didn’t raise the rate. Not a big surprise since there was only a 33% percent chance of a raise today or something along those lines.

One thing is for certain. The fed can’t catch a break.

1) Raising rates = They are crashing the stock/bond market on purpose and killing our savings!

2) Keeping rates low = Rising stocks only benefit the 1% bankers and the low yield is killing our savings!

Which one is it?

I’ve noticed that there is a lot of “I told you so” today in the comments section. All good. If rates had gone up today I would have done the same thing. When they finally do, I will also do the same thing here. But are we going to go through this every 6 weeks or so after every fed meeting? It’s just a matter of time.

I also noticed on this board and other boards that the comments sections seem to suggest the majority wanted lift off. There definitely is lots of frustration out there. Maybe the fed is waiting long enough that enough frustration builds that they can raise rates with less criticism? I don’t know. From what I am reading lots of people do not like the the present situation.

My call is October. If not then, then the next meeting etc.

“up she goes”.

MF

#204 Admirer on 09.17.15 at 11:26 pm

Wow, I think Garth let a bunch of foxes in the hen house tonight. All the messages are getting through and he’s not responding to any of them.

Maybe we finally pushed him too hard? Nah, he’s just reloading after a bitter defeat.

#205 Mike T. on 09.17.15 at 11:28 pm

if you are the lucky winner of a recent Nigerian lottery…
bad news…

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-17/nigeria-central-bank-urges-dont-panic-banks-halt-lending-each-other

the steerage material I read has this thing falling apart before the end of the rugby world cup

or not

#206 MF on 09.17.15 at 11:30 pm

Anyone notice there are no replies from Garth tonight?

Almost feels like a mutiny.

MF

#207 SWL1976 on 09.17.15 at 11:31 pm

#184 Trojan House on 09.17.15 at 10:12 pm

#174 SWL1976

How is it a scam on the American people? You can’t call it a scam without knowing the history of it. Again, the real scam came fro the Congress.

———————-

I am well aware of the history of the Federal Reserve and how they serve private bankers not the American people. There is nothing federal (public) about it, and that is what makes it a scam to the American people. Also, thru the use of the petrol dollar this scam is further perpetuated to the rest of the world.

See what happens to nations who choose to sell oil outside the USD.

They suddenly need to be ‘liberated’

I am curious to hear your view on the involvement of congress.

Give me control of a nations money supply, and I care not who makes its laws

#208 kommykim on 09.17.15 at 11:38 pm

It was interesting to watch the S&P500. A little flash dip at 2:06pm as traders quivered in lusty anticipation. The 10 minute surge starting at 2:40pm. Then going quickly flaccid at 3:02pm, the traders spent, exhausted, rolling over, and snoring by 4:00pm. Disappointing.

#209 Tony on 09.17.15 at 11:42 pm

Re: #126 The Signal & The Noise on 09.17.15 at 7:06 pm

I predicted 32 dollars U.S. a barrel oil right here on this blog back at the very start of January 2015… this year.

#210 savers are punished on 09.17.15 at 11:46 pm

“Savers are punished.”

Not really.

They are just not rewarded, the same way as they used to be.

But nothing is guaranteed, why would “savers” be different?

Welcome to the club.

#211 Love my Kia on 09.17.15 at 11:46 pm

Mulcair made a good point, why have a home reno tax credit if you can’t afford the home in the first place?

Booya!

#212 MF on 09.18.15 at 12:00 am

#200 M on 09.17.15 at 11:08 pm

Lots of predictions there. Can you please refer to your all knowing sources and check to see if the Blue Jays will be the World Series Champions this year?

You should be a billionaire by now making all that money off of Proline.

#145 Daisy Mae on 09.17.15 at 7:53 pm

Exactly.

Here’s 222 years of interest rates in the US

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/talking-numbers/222-years-interest-history-one-chart-173358843.html

Low rate periods are indeed once a lifetime. If you are a millennial like myself, take a look at this chart next time you think rates will never rise again.

#113 Smoking Man on 09.17.15 at 6:36 pm

Even though most of what you say is conspiracy theory crap, your dislike of Wynne and decision to vote for Harper gets a thumbs up from me (hesitantly).

#61 why raise it? on 09.17.15 at 3:47 pm

Will take a stab at it.

-Low rates create asset bubbles that are painful when they inevitably pop (think Tdot Real estate).

-Individuals gorge on debt like morons (think Tdot Real estate).

-Corporations/Governments borrow and become wasteful and inefficient (think Ontario Government).

-The misallocation of resources into unproductive assets like real estate means other more productive areas of the economy suffer. Think Tdot real estate, and how if you are not some former stoner turned tradesman now building condos (generalization), the high paying corporations will not be hiring your university educated bum for anything of use like research and development/scientific discovery/technology etc.

Basically the whole country just stagnates. I think we are kind of seeing that in Canada.

MF

#213 M on 09.18.15 at 12:09 am

JimH @196

Yes Jim, some of us have a despicable opinion about fed officials, Yellen including. The right thing to do now is to go Volker on rates but god forbit of doing the right thing.

all the $hit that’s happening is because after LTCM debacle in the late nineties, these morons went commie with dineros, i.e. they politicized TOTALLY the money creation and such distorted the markets.
And since gringo doesn’t produce anything of any significance lately, they went “bubble” i.e. printing and creating bubble after bubble after bubble.
It’s a ponzi scheme baby.
How can these %^%$#suckers can be respected ?
In a normal world they should be good for hanging

#214 cici on 09.18.15 at 12:09 am

#194 Smoking Man

I am amazing and I did not fail, because my goal has never been to gamble, drink and sit on my butt all day trading Forex. Some people need a vocation.

#215 Sherri on 09.18.15 at 12:09 am

Fed makes the same mistake as in 1927 …..history always repeats…………

Interesting article anyway..

http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37240

#216 AckNack on 09.18.15 at 12:13 am

Garth, what the American media report about the recovery is ‘weak’. But you call it ‘robust’. Something’s got to give.

Not only did Yellen forgo raising rates. She also warned of falling inflation. And that means Fed’s attempts to ignite inflation have failed. Just as similar policies also failed in Japan.

Your being more bullish on the USA than the Fed and the American mainstream media who would love to be more bullish, is baffling.

#217 Balmuto on 09.18.15 at 12:46 am

It’s pretty simple. The Fed will raise rates when they start seeing some, you know, inflation. Until then, fuggedaboutit!

#218 Broken Clock on 09.18.15 at 1:07 am

The Fed produces trillions of dollars (“money”) out of thin air.

And we are supposed to wait anxiously for them to ‘correct to normal’ based on fundamentals?

Remind me: What fundamentals were involved in creating “money” out of thin air again?

Thought so.

Don’t blink or you’ll miss it when good ol’ fundamentals make things normal again, and this broken clock will be showing exactly the right time.

#219 Freedom First on 09.18.15 at 2:00 am

#184 eddy

Yes eddy, you and the majority of Canadians like low interest rates. It is easy to see. Just look at the debt levels of Canadians.

Personally, for myself, I lived through the high rates as an adult on my own in the eighties, and the low rates we are having now, in your lifetime. I have found both to be lucrative for me. May you be as fortunate as me.

#220 Freedom First on 09.18.15 at 2:08 am

#187 Cici

Yes, I believe being a woman is probably more difficult if you are not attractive.

#221 juno on 09.18.15 at 2:15 am

Like I said. The feds will wait til after the Canadian Election. They like Harper

The eventually have to raise, otherwise the US will be overheated. 5.1 unemployment is extremely low, soon there will be wage inflation. A quarter point is nothing

#222 TRT on 09.18.15 at 2:48 am

The USA missed its opportunity to raise rates.

Global growth now slowing…Dollar appreciating….means they CANT raise. maybe one token increase and thats it.

And Canada? Hahaha. not for a long time…..oh what was that? Bond yields??…hahaha….ever hear of QE1 for mortgage bonds??

#223 Joe2.0 on 09.18.15 at 5:07 am

The U.S. Is not growing robustly unless your slinging burgers or counting low paying jobs.
The U.S. is in dire economic condition.
Hence the 0 bank rate interest hike for almost 8 years.
Breathe deep people look around at what’s going on.
For the first time in history all significant economies are printing money.

#224 Londoner on 09.18.15 at 5:27 am

#203 MF

Hey Dude,

Since the Fed began it’s monetary easing program one of it’s goals was to sustain asset prices with the aim of creating a wealth effect that would pull the economy out of recession.

The Fed has never set a target timeline for raising rates. It’s provided a forecast timeline but has always caveated it by saying that it was data dependent. The forward looking Fed forecast is based on data available today along with projections based on it’s policies. If they believe their policies are working (and why would they think otherwise?) then their forecasts would always assume an upward path. If it didn’t then it would mandate a policy change. The data they continue to receive is showing progress is subdued but still following the path they’ve forecasted. Add to that unexpected global economic events and it may actually be hypocritical for them to raise rates in the face of the data they’re receiving.

Most people have bought into an interpretation of the Fed’s policy rather then understanding the policy itself. There are many different interpretations out there and some of those are self serving. I encourage you to read the policy statements and reach your own conclusions. In the mean time I look forward to hearing what you think will change from now until October to make the Fed reassess their policy decisions.

Cheers.

#225 Led on 09.18.15 at 6:54 am

do we say we told you so? No. Maybe I just did.
The sad part is that the economy is so fragile that they think we couldn’t take the rate hike. 7 years of this. Seems the world changed in 2008.

The USD is looking like it’s going to fall. That should be interesting.

#226 Smoking Man on 09.18.15 at 7:37 am

#214 cici on 09.18.15 at 12:09 am
#194 Smoking Man

I am amazing and I did not fail, because my goal has never been to gamble, drink and sit on my butt all day trading Forex. Some people need a vocation.
…..

Cici. No doubt you work hard. And yes I agree some dudes get s free ride.

But if a man or a woman really wants to get a head.

Swipe the customer list. Hire some schooled, and open up shop across the street.

No guarantees, its risky, but its really the only way to make it these days.

#227 sue on 09.18.15 at 8:09 am

I’m pretty sure that’s good news for me bc I don’t receive a lump sum until next month. Hoping to buy into preferred while they’re still low.

#228 pbrasseur on 09.18.15 at 8:18 am

The thing to watch for is bank lending. If lending goes up notably (there are indications of that lately) it will be a sign that the massive reserves accumulated by the banks during the FED «relaxed» phase (during which the banks could exchange various assets against FED reserves) are being increasingly used to back lending because, among other things, the banks judge that they (the bank reserves) don’t pay sufficient interests. When that happen the new supply of money will create inflation. What is clear is that given the massive reserves accumulated by the banks during this low rates/ QE era the potential for a huge increase in loans, therefor rapid inflation, is very real.

That’s why the FED needs to be careful about not being late raising rates, history shows that when it falls behind the curve it can be hard to get control back.

People on this blog and elsewhere seem to think that because the economy is sluggish inflation is no threat. They are wrong, inflation doesn’t just happen in an overheating economy, inflation is simply a matter of the supply of money in circulation growing faster than what is warranted by the economy. It can happen in a slow economy, it’s just a question or markets mood and appetite for loans and lending. Just look at Canada for example, our central bank has had policies similar to that of the US (low rates, asset purchases) except here the money has been lent, is circulating and has generated inflation, notably in housing and now cause the of low CAD. That happened even during recession periods.

#229 fancy_pants on 09.18.15 at 8:34 am

hard medicine will always taste better tomorrow. So the monetary medical community will continue to prescribe QE as the medicine of choice. It is a much more seductive remedy; far more alluring in this new landscape of instant gratification.

And since we elect those who write the prescriptions, you can see why tomorrow may never come. Society prefers to party through a slow death than suffer through a long recovery.

darn… and to think of all those warnings Dr. Carney put forth.

#230 Ponnaps on 09.18.15 at 9:26 am

Very unlikely we’ll see sustained increments in the FED rates..
granted there might be that one hike in Oct/Noc/Dec/2016 but every subsequent hike is going to be looked at with the same caution that’s been delaying the first one..
heck there might even be a rollback after the first one..who knows..

its too facetious to say the rates will only go northbound…

#231 MoneyMyHoney on 09.18.15 at 9:27 am

Mirage, again and again

#232 Llewelyn on 09.18.15 at 9:29 am

After watching the debates last night I have this nagging feeling that no one in Canada, including the leaders of political parties campaigning to form the next government really has a clue of where the global economy might be headed and where Canada might fit into this economy.

One party was confident that incurring additional debt and improving our internal infrastructure and transportation networks will kick start our economy. These may be necessary initiatives but the image I got was a crew improving the heating system on the Titanic as it was sinking.

One party was confident that reducing the cost of day care and tinkering with the tax rate for small businesses will kick start our economy. While there is no doubt a reduction in childcare costs could result in surplus disposable income for two income families the image I got was young families in our future struggling to keep one job let alone two.

One party was confident that the current downturn was a global phenomenon and that Canada had fared much better than other countries around the world and that all was well. All that seemed to be missing in that scenario was a fiddle and flames in the background.

I am frightened that Canadians have not only been seduced by the euphoria obtained through debt but seem convinced that our position in a rapidly changing global economy is safe.

We sold a substantial portion of our ‘common wealth’ to multinational companies without a moments concern over how Canada fits into their future plans.

We watched hundreds of thousands of manufacturing jobs leave Canada with only a ripple of genuine concern over how these employment opportunities might be restored.

We noticed that the demand for commodities that once supported our standard of living was declining without an appropriate level of concern over how this contribution might be replaced.

In short we have become far too complacent and nothing I heard during last nights debate indicated that any political party realized the urgency to redefine Canada’s place in the Global economy. All we got was the same old same old and I fear that if we do not change direction soon it may be too late.

I waited to hear someone emphasize the importance of increasing support for research and development, funding to cultivate joint ventures in underdeveloped countries, and additional support for the sectors of our economy that remain viable and have the potential to expand. Na Da nothing but lip service and passing references to the need for economic growth. Our political parties seem to have turned myopia into an artform!!

This debate was branded as a discussion about the future of the Canadian economy and if that was how current political parties view our economic future we are in serious trouble. SOS!!

#233 still waiting on 09.18.15 at 9:29 am

So I can’t vulch yet? I guess I’m going to keep on renting….

#234 Lake Shore Electric Railway on 09.18.15 at 9:35 am

Garth –

Fed’s antsy about China, slowing global growth, deflation – not necessarily in that order. Did you bother listening to Ms Yellen’s press conference?

Hit the USD!

#235 Ponnaps on 09.18.15 at 9:41 am

The world is a lot more interconnected than it was in 2004 so its facile to think what happened then would be replicated now..
The uncertainty in the emerging markets seems to have had a heavy bearing on the decision(the md-east is another story) and its no more the local metrics that we can afford to look at..

also the local metrics look good thanks to that one thing that’s been historically low,a reversion of which would only be counterproductive… and a sustained reversion- not a chance..

#236 LL on 09.18.15 at 9:41 am

….”Give me control of a nations money supply, and I care not who makes its laws”…

Right on Garth!

#237 Daisy Mae on 09.18.15 at 9:48 am

#206: “Anyone notice there are no replies from Garth tonight?”

*********************

What would be the point?

#238 Daisy Mae on 09.18.15 at 9:53 am

#211: “Mulcair made a good point, why have a home reno tax credit if you can’t afford the home in the first place?”

**********************

The ‘cons’ don’t care — least of all Harper, the economist, whose primary goal is to lure us all deeper in debt.

#239 Stoopid Idiot on 09.18.15 at 10:11 am

#17 Mister Obvious

“Why would anyone pay me the same price for a 5% bond, when now they can go down the street and get 10%? The only way I can sell my bond is if I drastically slash the price.”

Sorry, thought it was obvious that it was only an example. I have not owned Bonds since Russian Strip Bonds. Hard lesson for a young man. I learned that Bonds are not assets but liabilities. Most of all what I did learn was it’s not life, it was a choice that I have not repeated since, it was a choice that I paid for with my after tax dollars. 80 Months of ZIRP should show us that Savers are what’s left of the asset class to be fleeced. All one needs to do to get a base line of our economic health is by looking at the Baltic Dry Index since 2008… nothing more is needed to understand the direction we’ve been heading. Any course of a reversal in directions is a fabricated pipe dream. Garth, rates will rise no doubt and when they do it only signals a change in direction of unprecedented water where we have never been before, simply because of the Debt.

Consider:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBFuUC3iZXE

#132 Ralph Cramdown

Oh, look. The computers are trading with each other. Aren’t they cute?

LOL… That’s the smartest thing you’ve said

#240 Nora Lenderby on 09.18.15 at 10:28 am

#191 saskatoon on 09.17.15 at 10:24 pm
#185 Cici you’re in the wrong industry. try porn.
#220 Freedom First on 09.18.15 at 2:08 am
#187 Cici Yes, I believe being a woman is probably more difficult if you are not attractive.

Now take this as a warning, saskatoon young lad. This is what you’ll become when you grow up :-)

Getting rich isn’t difficult. Being strange isn’t difficult. Being human is quite hard.

#241 Nora Lenderby on 09.18.15 at 10:30 am

…and sakatoon – you still didn’t tell us how to solve all the world’s problems…manifesto, please.

Marks will be deducted for late submission.

#242 aizlynne on 09.18.15 at 10:39 am

I know you read this Garth so let’s review again. The Feds cannot EVER raise rates. For an economy running on all cylinders that had to be her most dovish statement ever! Raising rates will collapse their economy and they know it. But as long as they have “greater fools” believing them they can keep kicking the can, we’ll at least for the time being.

#243 saskatoon on 09.18.15 at 10:43 am

close paraphrasing from yesterday:

reporter:

“is it possible that zero percent interest rates will last forever?”

janet:

“we can’t rule that out.”

#244 Trojan House on 09.18.15 at 10:51 am

#207 SWL1976

I see you’ve been reading The Creature from Jekyll Island! Most likely that’s where you got your history from.

I don’t like posting long responses, so like I’ve been saying in my other related posts, don’t blame the bankers blame Congress for what the Fed is today.

#245 Londoner on 09.18.15 at 11:04 am

BoE’s chief economist says the bank’s next move could be to cut rates instead of raising them…

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34291815

#246 theobvioustruth on 09.18.15 at 11:16 am

“This debate was branded as a discussion about the future of the Canadian economy and if that was how current political parties view our economic future we are in serious trouble. SOS!”

Our version of Democracy has, over time, evolved and been dominated by, Politicians. I mean that in the worst sense of the word.

We have no leaders, no visionaries, no nation builders; only sound-bite quipping, talking point spewing, makeup wearing Politicians. They are in every way interchangeable.

We’ll get more of the same until we upgrade our democracy to remove first passed the post and introduce term limits.

Serving the nation in parliament shouldn’t be a 35 year career

#247 Obvious Truth on 09.18.15 at 11:29 am

What if we go green today?

#248 Rational Optimist on 09.18.15 at 11:35 am

179 Gonkman on 09.17.15 at 9:56 pm

‘Yeah Justin the Man. “Interest Rates are Low! LETS SPEND MONEY!! Wooo hooo!”

Only 30 Billion plus over 3 years.. lol.

His comments probably appeal to all the people still buying RE at these prices. Money’s cheap why not.’

That’s actually one of the few things said last night that made any sense. You can’t compare an individual household incurring short-term debt to buy into an asset bubble, with a government locking in historically low interest rates for decades in order to build infrastructure that will increase productivity and improve standards of living for generation.

As we neglect our existing infrastructure, we add to the deficit that will have to one day be repaid. Why not repair and replace it now, when money is cheap for governments?

#249 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09.18.15 at 11:45 am

It was no game changer. There was no magic moment when the earth moved.
Nobody screwed it up. Nobody won it going away.
Many thought this would be Harper’s game to play.
After all, Thursday’s verbal tug-of-war was about jobs and the economy, the bread and butter battle suiting the prime minister’s taste, all served up on the man’s home ground.
Harper decided to play it calm, cool and collected, most often talking in the measured tone of the guy selling you mutual funds at RRSP time.
Trudeau was pushy and passionate.
Mulcair tried to portray an image of someone not scary and therefore able to run the country.
Harper is fighting to keep power.
____________________________________________
Mr. Trudeau is an Idiot. Never trusted his father would never trust him. Young voters are in love with this guy and his I have a dream socialist agenda. They are too young to recall PET and his destruction of Canada over 3 decades in politics. Go ahead idiots vote for him and see what we went through for 3 decades. Jesus getting rid of his father was like finding a cure for Ebola. Almost impossible to do!
Mr. Mulcair is still the quintessential Cheshire cat. That forced smirky smile makes him look creepy. What is behind that grin? “I’m for the middle class bullshit, ya right you will rape every single citizen in taxes to feed the homeless, unemployed crack addicts that don’t want to work, own a home or escape the matrix.”
Mr. Harper well Stephan, and I did identify him by his first name as almost every media outlet appears to be rude to him. Well Stephan you’ve got your self into this freaking mess by alienating the masses. Can’t say that you have hurt my paycheck or my business interests at all, so I may not like you but I will vote with my wallet!

Oh an just for fun Wynne Never like you or your agenda either, your not better than the last provincial government just as bad, no then again you the worst government for business Ontario has ever had. Have you ever really worked in a business? Perhaps making flags to wave?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/trending/canada-election-2015-globe-debate-weird-moments-1.3233233

#250 Kreditanstalt on 09.18.15 at 11:46 am

“The Fed remains in a box of its own making. We are beginning to doubt whether central bank will ever be hike rates again voluntarily. What is however eventually highly likely to happen is that the markets will force the Fed to act – or as Bill Fleckenstein puts it, ‘the bond market may take the printing press away from them’.”

Puts it more accurately and succinctly than I ever could. The Fed is an irrelevancy.

#251 prairie person on 09.18.15 at 11:49 am

Negative interest rates suggested in England. Ban cash. Give the government complete control over everyone’s money.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/bank-of-england/11874061/Negative-interest-rates-could-be-necessary-to-protect-UK-economy-says-Bank-of-England-chief-economist.html

#252 Sheane Wallace on 09.18.15 at 11:52 am

Herr H has completely lost it

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-debate-political-leaders-spar-over-wash-red-032225591.html

On Thursday, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper said the ability of Canadians to continue borrowing in spite of global financial instability should be a source of pride.
“Well, no doubt there are some people who are overextended — (but) I think the housing story is a very positive story in this country,” Harper said during the debate in Calgary.
“You know, you look around the world where there have been all of these financial and other crashes — a lot of them centred around the housing market. In Canada, we have seen home ownership rise to record levels.”
Harper said Canada now has higher home ownership than the United States because people have taken advantage of lower interest rates at a time when their incomes have been growing.
“That’s a positive Canadian story that we should celebrate.”
During the campaign, he added, the Conservatives have laid out plans that would encourage Canadians to spend even more on homes. They include his party’s promises to revive a home-renovation tax credit and to examine the impact of foreign home ownership.
He has also pledged to raise the amount first-time home buyers can withdraw from their registered retirement savings plans for a down payment — to $35,000, up from the current $25,000 limit.
Last spring, Harper said debt-servicing costs in Canada had fallen and default rates remained extremely low.
Harper’s opponents, meanwhile, focused on their respective plans to help Canadians keep up with their expanding credit levels.

#253 Roadrunner12 on 09.18.15 at 11:58 am

>>>Nonetheless, we’re almost there. The US is growing robustly and employment is swelling fast. The contrast with Canada,<<<

Garth, the economist that you listen to could change places with the honest real estate board snake oil salesmen without missing a beat. It may take a while but you will sooner or later learn that the US is not growing robustly. How long this takes remains to be seen. Until then you can remain in denial. And yes gold is part of a diversified financial plan.

1. The Fed should have raised rates years ago. There is going to be a lot of hurt one way or the other. The Fed will ensure that the hurt is long and extended rather than biting the bullet and bursting the debt bubble it has created.

2. The Feds song is "I think I'm turning Japanese, I think I'm turning Japanese, I really think so."

#254 jess on 09.18.15 at 12:12 pm

What would higher interest rates do to these?

pension obligation bonds
http://www.propublica.org/article/when-wall-street-offers-free-money-watch-out
Cezary Podkul
GASB, pronounced GAZ-bee
http://gasb.org/resources/ccurl/399/602/GASBS67.pdf

#255 Cici on 09.18.15 at 12:15 pm

#191 Saskatoon

DELETED (vulgar)

#256 Cici on 09.18.15 at 12:16 pm

#220 Freedom First

How attractive are you, Mr. Misogynist?

#257 Cici on 09.18.15 at 12:18 pm

#226 Smoking Man

Thank you. That was actually very good advice ;-)

#258 Nagraj on 09.18.15 at 12:24 pm

In the 5 days going into Aug 25, the DJIA dropped about 1,750pts, straight down, cliff dive. (Intraday it fell below 15,500.) I’d call that a market break. If there’s a technical indicator that doesn’t imply a bear mkt, please tell me what it is.

I don’t know this, but I doubt that Fed intentions as to ending its financial repression (especially via an initial sliver of a rate increase) motivated the break.

So what’s going on? We do know that INDU and SPX have peaked.
No matter how you slice it – the break does qualify as a good old-fashioned panic sell-off.

MSM silence on this has been expectedly stunning; business media has also been quiet about this; more worrisome is that most bear commentary has also politely avoided the issue – I didn’t see any told ya so write-ups. Nobody is willing to say that for about a week the mkt went nuts.

Guess it’s necessary in the minds of media to stick to the idea that the stock mkt is a wise proxy for the economy and that smart and responsible people are in control of the universe.

#259 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 09.18.15 at 12:25 pm

STUFF AND NONSENSE, #201

@193 Victoria tea party

When tax cuts go so far, they don’t create any economic activity, you have Canada today. Idle capital doesn’t create jobs, doesn’t grow the economy. You prescribe even more of the same?

http://behindthenumbers.ca/2014/08/19/the-truth-behind-corporate-tax-cuts-in-one-chart/

MY RESPONSE:

The CCPA is a left-wing group and I have problems agreeing with anything it spouts.

It continually calls for government intervention in the market place, as if unlimited taxation policies for (against) “the Corporations” will solve our economic problems, which it won’t.

Corporate Canada is a key institution, not for the plucking by NDP and Liberal governments, but as a safe harbour for its owners: SHAREHOLDERS aka those who get CPP, OAS, and so on. Those pensions get much of their “cash” from investing tax revenues in said corporations which, in turn, spin off regular dividends to the shareholders, namely the REST OF US, who are eligible for those benefits.

So when Mr. Mulcair bloviates about corporations needing to pay a “little more” tax, their “fair share”, what this financial ignoramus (who’s mortgaged his own home 11 times over the last 20 years or so and will not explain why to us) is really taking money from “our pockets” by putting those vital dividends at potential risk.

The other risk is this: if said corporations decide to maintain dividends at current levels, inspite of
being forced to pay more taxes, then they will simply cut jobs, and that will add to government expenditures through higher unemployment insurance demand, and see even more corporations paying even more taxes. Do you get it now?

You see, NDP supporters never connect the dots when it comes to studying economics.

They don’t because either they can’t or they don’t because they can’t stand the TRUTH.

Nohing is free, never has been, never will be.

SOMEONE gets stuck with the bill at day’s end.

So, if that economist who wrote that piece is correct and corporations are sitting on cash, it’s not because they love hoarding the stuff, because they don’t (they want ALL their cash working hard for the shareholders) it’s because of something bigger’s going on: worries about the global financial crisis that still permeates EVERYTHING.

Just look at today’s stock markets. What a flaming mess, caused by the US Fed yesterday which failed to raise its rates, and now investors the world over have no clue what anything is worth in the market anymore.

That’s why corporate Canada has been sitting on this cash.

It is a VERY WISE MOVE.

#260 Sheane Wallace on 09.18.15 at 12:35 pm

#249 prairie person on 09.18.15 at 11:49 am
Negative interest rates suggested in England. Ban cash. Give the government complete control over everyone’s money.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/bank-of-england/11874061/Negative-interest-rates-could-be-necessary-to-protect-UK-economy-says-Bank-of-England-chief-economist.html
———————–

Interesting, they propose negative interest rates, abolishment of cash and inflation target of 4 %.

They sure will get control of the British pound. Whether at this point it would be considered ‘money’ is another question. I certainly won’t.

#261 Maggie the Tech Writer on 09.18.15 at 12:42 pm

# 58 Mr. Sideshow
“The Fed has stared into the chicken entrails and decided to jumped [sic] the shark. Typical 2 handed economists…on the one hand all is sunshine and puppies! … Those central planners are wearing no clothes. …”

Block those metaphors before they explode and destroy the website! By writing that way, you’re risking the life of any blog dog or bitch who happens to be near a computer!

Using four completely different images within a few sentences suggests a high degree of mental confusion. Or possibly desperation. Hope you feel calmer today.

#262 fancy_pants on 09.18.15 at 12:52 pm

$20 oil possible? last one out of Alberta, turn off the lights… but remember a pendulum swings both ways.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-17/goldman-sees-15-years-of-weak-crude-as-20-u-s-oil-looms-on-glut

… markets, environment, behaviors becoming more volatile every year. no wonder so many flock to RE, it is an investment you can take comfort and hide in.

#263 Marco on 09.18.15 at 12:54 pm

Thanks Garth,

@pbraseur

“Just look at Canada for example, our central bank has had policies similar to that of the US (low rates, asset purchases) except here the money has been lent, is circulating and has generated inflation, notably in housing and now cause the of low CAD. That happened even during recession periods.”

Exactly, that is why the US has to raise rates sooner then later to keep tabs on inflation which is on the rise.
US Banks are starting to lend more in a low interest environment and an improving job market.

So much for Canadian prudence.

This is a very interesting article on money growth and inflation, the difference between printing money and lending money.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johntharvey/2011/05/14/money-growth-does-not-cause-inflation/

Cheers.

#264 Nemesis on 09.18.15 at 12:58 pm

#HeadFakes&FridayMischief,Or… #TheWayBackMachineRemembersEverything…

“Elizabeth May will never be prime minister but Stéphane Dion has a possibility.” – HonGT [circa 29 OCT 2007]

[Macleans] – Could the queen of green be mean?

…Building the Greens is a long-term game. And that has redirected some high-profile potential candidates to establishment parties. May courted former Conservative MP Garth Turner after he was kicked out of caucus last fall, but he went to the Liberals…

http://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/could-the-queen-of-green-be-mean/

#BonusMischief,Or… #TerryMalloyLaments… #DaysOfFuturePassed…

https://youtu.be/AwlqKiCpQ9Y

#265 OXI in GREECE !! on 09.18.15 at 1:00 pm

I wonder how much support the party that said “we are going to cut the size of govt to match Germany” would get? They have less than half the actual number of public sector workers with more than twice the populations.

And before anyone says “Canada is bigger”. Don’t be so stupid as to think TWICE as many govt workers are needed for some skinny single lane highway maintenance.

#266 Stoopid Idiot on 09.18.15 at 1:01 pm

On a lighter note

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3239257/In-America-s-expensive-city-350K-buys-San-Francisco.html

#267 Herf on 09.18.15 at 1:07 pm

How can any sane Canadian desire to replace Harper (despite his faults/mistakes) with the mini-PET, who’s never had a real job in his life, let alone had to meet a payroll:

http://www.therebel.media/trudeau_thinks_small_businesses_are_just_a_way

And as to the mini-PET’s priorities:

http://www.therebel.media/trudeau_s_first_day_as

As for Mulcair, I think his dual citizenship should disqualify him from holding elected office, especially that of PM:

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/07/31/mulcair-cant-keep-dual-citizenship

We can perhaps debate Mulcair’s fiscal competence based on his refinancing his house 11 times in 20+ years. Personally, I’d like to hear his side of the story (e.g. did he have gambling debts? Shopaholic wife? Was he being blackmailed?). It does raise questions. I think the public is entitled to know the reasons, if he’s going to hold elected office, particularly PM, and particularly after the left-wingnut media went after Vic Toews over his personal affairs.

#268 Steve French on 09.18.15 at 1:25 pm

Just finished Walking Dead Season 5….

Jees Rick Rhymes went a bit bonkers there eh?

He was talking about “defending the community”. In reality he just wanted a piece of that hot married blonde woman’s tail.

Things are spiraling downwards in Walking Dead land.

Just like in Canada and Oz property markets…..!!!

We’ve got Zombie property speculators.

#269 Q2 Class 4-4-6-4 on 09.18.15 at 1:35 pm

No. 257 – Victoria Tea Party

Well said.

I see Mulcair uses that line about corporations ‘paying a little bit more’. Obama used that early in his presidency to justify taxing US corporations. It’s pretty clear, I think, how well that strategy worked out.

All this is for naught, though; Canadians, like the docile bovines they are, will vote in the NDP-Liberal coalition on October 19th. A pity.

#270 Nemesis on 09.18.15 at 1:49 pm

#SomeHeavyLifting,Or… #YouCan’tTellThePlayersWithoutAProgram… #AssortedThoughtsOnTheSillySeason

[CounterPunch] – Donald Trump and the Ghosts of Totalitarianism by Henry Giroux

…”Yet, what is often missed in analysis of political and civic illiteracy as the new normal is the degree to which these new forms of illiteracy not only result in an unconscious flight from politics, but also produce a moral coma that supports modern systems of terror and authoritarianism. Civic illiteracy is about more than the glorification and manufacture of ignorance on an individual scale: it is producing a nation-wide crisis of agency, memory, and thinking itself.”…

http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/09/18/donald-trump-and-the-ghosts-of-totalitarianism/

#271 Sheane Wallace on 09.18.15 at 1:59 pm

#265 Herf

after reading this about Justin despite my under-appreciation of Harper I might still vote for him. How can this guy be so lucky to get such pathetic opponents (NDP and the Liberals)?
Taking back all bad thoughts. Go Harper, get them boy!

#272 Daisy Mae on 09.18.15 at 2:08 pm

#267: “Canadians, like the docile bovines they are…”

******************

Not this time. This time we’re disgusted and mad as hell.

#273 Daisy Mae on 09.18.15 at 2:18 pm

#265: THEREBELS — “Hello to all and welcome to the Rebels league when we play each other we report our losses to this ladder. We are now celebrating our first year of starting…”

********************

Considering the source, I’d be inclined to take anything these ‘rebels’ have to say with a grain of salt….

#274 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09.18.15 at 2:18 pm

#266 Steve French on 09.18.15 at 1:25 pm
Just finished Walking Dead Season 5….
Jees Rick Rhymes went a bit bonkers there eh?
He was talking about “defending the community”. In reality he just wanted a piece of that hot married blonde woman’s tail.
Things are spiraling downwards in Walking Dead land.
Just like in Canada and Oz property markets…..!!!
We’ve got Zombie property speculators.
_____________________________________________
Yes but you have 365 days of decent weather. Your accent is awesome and your women hotter than Badlands of the Queensland Outback.
Giday mate!

#275 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.18.15 at 2:20 pm

Wish I’d have a job like Yellen.
Getting paid a ton to do nothing.

#276 Same time same place on 09.18.15 at 2:20 pm

HAM on the move in the USA…but none ‘officially’ logged in Canada yet….whew….I guess we dodged a bullet there.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_HOUSING_MARKET_CHINESE_BUYERS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-09-18-10-35-14

#277 Daisy Mae on 09.18.15 at 2:28 pm

#267: “Canadians, like the docile bovines they are…”

*********************

….and remember, Harper wasn’t a popular choice the last time ’round with that so-called ‘majority’.

#278 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09.18.15 at 2:30 pm

#226 Smoking Man on 09.18.15 at 7:37 am
#214 cici on 09.18.15 at 12:09 am
#194 Smoking Man
I am amazing and I did not fail, because my goal has never been to gamble, drink and sit on my butt all day trading Forex. Some people need a vocation.
…………………………………
Cici. No doubt you work hard. And yes I agree some dudes get s free ride.
But if a man or a woman really wants to get a head.
Swipe the customer list. Hire some schooled, and open up shop across the street.
No guarantees, its risky, but its really the only way to make it these days.
_____________________________________________
Swiping the customer list shows no integrity, self worth, intelligence, creativity, or self motivated ambition. Only a low underhanded, slimy, wormy weasel does this. Weasels operate from behind cover. Their weapons include, sly comments from behind their hand, cutting remarks, sarcasm, sneakiness and lying. I’m surprised Smoking Man, I thought you were a skilled programmer with intelligence? Why would you recommend such an illegal method of setting up shop? Laziness? Lack of self worth? An opportunist? Are you loaded in your backyard under you gazebo sneaking JD without wify poo knowing again?

#279 MF on 09.18.15 at 2:41 pm

#224 Londoner on 09.18.15 at 5:27 am

They would never give a specific date for liftoff but I think the crucial point is that they have been explicitly stating they are looking to increase the rate once the data supports it. That is important since there is a whole generation that believes rates will never rise again. If you read the statement, you can see The fed seems to be watching employment and inflation numbers the closest. We have had years of consistently improving jobs numbers in the US, and along with these improvements there should be some healthy inflation on the horizon. To go up from where we are now is not a lot since we are so low.

As for any changes that may occur from now until October, these markets are so emotional it’s laughable. Mr Market is manic depressive and should be in the mental institute. Every day it goes down 2% there are people on here howling about another great depression. Every time it goes up 2% the other side howls about QE to infinity and stocks to the sky for the “1%”.

To answer your question, in one month concerns about China may subside since everyone’s memory of news stories is about a few hours long, energy may shoot up due to some report of supply crunches somewhere in the world, and, there may be some metric of inflation that says it’s creeping up ever so slowly.

Like I said, I’m still betting on October, or December etc. etc.

MF

#280 cross river on 09.18.15 at 2:42 pm

They won’t raise the rate due to the global DEBT BUBBLES. It’s so simple.

#281 jess on 09.18.15 at 2:47 pm

new tools?

The “New” Science of Credit Risk Management at Financial Institutions : Remarks at the Conference on Recent Developments in the Financial System, Jerome Levy Economics Institute of Bard College

PART OF: Statements and Speeches of Janet L. Yellen

securitization : intermediation

DATE: April 11, 1996
intermediation
https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/scribd/?item_id=36158&filepath=/docs/historical/federal%20reserve%20history/bog_members_statements/yellen_19960411.pdf#scribd-open

==================
decade later

Janet L. Yellen, 2009. “A Minsky meltdown: lessons for central bankers,” FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue may1.

This Economic Letter is adapted from a speech delivered by Janet L. Yellen, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, to the 18th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference on the State of the U.S. and World Economies on April 16, 2009, in New York City.

http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2009/may/minsky-central-bank-asset-price-bubbles/

#282 MF on 09.18.15 at 2:48 pm

#270 Daisy Mae on 09.18.15 at 2:08 pm

“Not this time. This time we’re disgusted and mad as hell.”

Not this Canadian. I get disgusted when I see Justin in over his head with his sh*t policies or Mulcair who cannot even pay his own mortgage.

#269 Sheane Wallace on 09.18.15 at 1:59 pm
#265 Herf

“after reading this about Justin despite my under-appreciation of Harper I might still vote for him. How can this guy be so lucky to get such pathetic opponents (NDP and the Liberals)?
Taking back all bad thoughts. Go Harper, get them boy!”

This^ Although I like Harper. More of a leader than the other two whiny babies.

MF

#283 Lea on 09.18.15 at 2:49 pm

#274 Same time same place

You could say the same about Canadian snowbirds in Florida, Arizona and California.

#284 Ralph Cramdown on 09.18.15 at 2:56 pm

#263 OXI in GREECE !! — “[Germany] have less than half the actual number of public sector workers with more than twice the populations.”

I don’t know what makes you think this is true. The OECD says they have 15.4% (Employment in public sector as a percentage of total employment) as compared to Canada’s 20.31%. Source: http://stats.oecd.org/

I don’t know if the German stat counts 300,000 Deutsche Bahn workers. It certainly doesn’t count Germany’s share of all the Eurocrats in Brussels. The suggestion that Germany public sector is proportionally less than 1/4 the size of Canada’s is laughable.

#285 OXI in GREECE !! on 09.18.15 at 3:04 pm

#269 Sheane Wallace on 09.18.15 at 1:59 pm
#265 Herf

after reading this about Justin despite my under-appreciation of Harper I might still vote for him. How can this guy be so lucky to get such pathetic opponents (NDP and the Liberals)?
Taking back all bad thoughts. Go Harper, get them boy!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

As usual in Canada there is no one to vote for. The only reason I am voting for the Thomas Mulcair dictatorship party is because “he” (not the party) is going to repeal Police State Bill C-51. That is the only reason I’m even voting in our anti-democracy pro-dictatorship system.

#286 Q2 Class 4-4-6-4 on 09.18.15 at 3:07 pm

No. 270 Daisy Mae

‘Not this time. This time we’re disgusted and mad as hell.’

Not yet Canadians aren’t, not by a long shot. Americans are PO’d, Canadian are merely irritated. If that.

#287 Q2 Class 4-4-6-4 on 09.18.15 at 3:12 pm

No. 275 Daisy Mae

Harper was running against Iggy the brainiac. Election before that he ran against Stephane Dion, which is french for idiot. You or me coulda beat those two. This election, Canadians aren’t scared (enough) of Mulcair or are mesmerized by Trudeau’s hair. Justin Trudeau! His father’s arrogance and his mother’s brains. A lethal combination but Canadians dig him.

#288 Bill on 09.18.15 at 3:17 pm

Here’s a hot off the press from my fav hedge fund manager that has a knack for getting it write year in and out..Garth we are anything but out of the woods…US is better shape than others that’s for sure…….Now on the market / economy…
“This sell-off was the culmination of many problems brewing throughout the world, a number of which we had mentioned in previous commentaries.
For many months now, we’ve been talking about problems in emerging markets and specifically China. In fact, Chinese currency devaluation was one of the predictions we made in published in December of 2014.
We believe it will get worse for Asia because China’s economy will remain a drag on this region for a little while longer. We believe China is in a recession for a number of reasons, one of which being that wages have increased substantially over the past few years and
the manufacturing cost advantage that China once had is arguably now gone. As a result, jobs are moving back to the U.S., Mexico, Vietnam and
so on. Since 2008, China has overbuilt its manufacturing capacity and increased its debt substantially as a % of GDP. Although China has a lot of
foreign currency reserves, we think that they will eventually deplete them (roughly 500 billion dollars gone so far). In our opinion, China’s current
problems will continue to have a negative effect on the rest of the world but particularly on emerging markets, commodities and currencies.
Let’s not forget about the U.S. dollar’s rapid rally here and the pressure that it’s putting on the rest of the world, especially on emerging markets,
which are awash with U.S. dollar denominated debt (we see estimates of 9 trillion dollars’ worth). Every time the U.S. dollar moves up it becomes
more expensive for these countries to service their U.S. dollar debt. We see high debt levels combined with elevated carrying costs as putting
undue strain on fragile emerging market economies. This ongoing pressure could eventually cause some big problems (bigger than what we’ve
seen this year) and the bubble could burst. We see the strong possibility of a full blown crisis arising in some emerging markets which could further
scare investors and we think it’s possible that the aggressive sell-off we saw in August is not completely over. If this market recovers a good portion
of its recent loss, we remain ready to short more.”

#289 Ralph Cramdown on 09.18.15 at 3:18 pm

#256 Nagraj — “MSM silence on this has been expectedly stunning; business media has also been quiet about this; more worrisome is that most bear commentary has also politely avoided the issue – I didn’t see any told ya so write-ups. Nobody is willing to say that for about a week the mkt went nuts.”

http://assets.bwbx.io/images/is9YusPv2zHA/v1/-1x-1.jpg

Even the Mop and Pail had articles about circuit breakers and wild ETF pricing…

Prior to the correction, we’d gone the third longest stretch in market history without one:
http://americasmarkets.usatoday.com/2015/06/03/what-you-need-to-know-when-a-10-correction-finally-hits/

So I see recent market action as back to normal after a long period of unusually low volatility. I bought some great companies in August that I’d been looking at longingly for years, but the prices were just too expensive for me. Some of them had been drifting lower over the summer, and then when the market puked on August 24-26, I bought.

#290 Ralph Cramdown on 09.18.15 at 3:21 pm

#257 VICTORIA TEA PARTY — “Just look at today’s stock markets. What a flaming mess, caused by the US Fed yesterday which failed to raise its rates, and now investors the world over have no clue what anything is worth in the market anymore.”

The principles of valuation have not changed. People who knew what stuff was worth — long term — last month, still do. People who didn’t and just let the market do all their pricing for them still don’t. The Fed makes a convenient scapegoat for people who can’t price securities.

#291 ch on 09.18.15 at 3:29 pm

“The new D-date is now Wednesday, October 28th. We got all hormonal for nothing.”

oh for christ sakes, ive finally capitulated, its just not going to happen.. there is no D day this is the new normal. i never though id be saying this .. but its over. especially out in Van. Mainland Chinese just have way too many tricks up their sleeve.. the housing market will not slow down here.

#292 Freedom First on 09.18.15 at 3:41 pm

#254 Cici

Whining, self pity, and name calling. Traits of the modern feminists. And you have all 3.

#293 Waterloo Resident on 09.18.15 at 3:53 pm

I’m now beginning to believe that the Global economy really is falling into a depression, a global depression, and that the FED never will be raising rates; not now, not in October, not in December, and not in 2016 either. In fact, I have a feeling that come spring we will be seeing another wave of Quantitative Easing, more bond buying by the FED as it becomes clear that the world’s economy is slowing down dramatically.

As Harry Dent said:

“Breaking News: We’re Already Moving Back Into Recession! ”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esmE1YSHe1E

And as for Canada = in 2016 we will probably be seeing negative interest rates from our government. All in a bid to try to keep the consumers spending.

#294 Smoking Man on 09.18.15 at 3:56 pm

#276 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09.18.15 at 2:30 pm
#226 Smoking Man on 09.18.15 at 7:37 am
#214 cici on 09.18.15 at 12:09 am
#194 Smoking Man
I am amazing and I did not fail, because my goal has never been to gamble, drink and sit on my butt all day trading Forex. Some people need a vocation.
…………………………………
Cici. No doubt you work hard. And yes I agree some dudes get s free ride.
But if a man or a woman really wants to get a head.
Swipe the customer list. Hire some schooled, and open up shop across the street.
No guarantees, its risky, but its really the only way to make it these days.
_____________________________________________
Swiping the customer list shows no integrity, self worth, intelligence, creativity, or self motivated ambition. Only a low underhanded, slimy, wormy weasel does this. Weasels operate from behind cover. Their weapons include, sly comments from behind their hand, cutting remarks, sarcasm, sneakiness and lying. I’m surprised Smoking Man, I thought you were a skilled programmer with intelligence? Why would you recommend such an illegal method of setting up shop? Laziness? Lack of self worth? An opportunist? Are you loaded in your backyard under you gazebo sneaking JD without wify poo knowing again

….

All of the above.. Lol

I knew that one would rattle you. Us self-employed think alike.

Re. Your comment

Mr. Trudeau is an Idiot. Never trusted his father would never trust him. Young voters are in love with this guy and his I have a dream socialist agenda.
……
Ask your teacher wife why they love the socialist agenda..

#295 jess on 09.18.15 at 4:02 pm

#280 MF on 09.18.15 at 2:48 pm

…. the recent conviction of the broker Tom Hayes
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-14/was-tom-hayes-running-the-biggest-financial-conspiracy-in-history-

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/banking-criminals-exposed-rowan-bosworth-davies

#296 Nemesis on 09.18.15 at 4:03 pm

#YouCan’tMakeThisStuffUp…

[UK Telegraph] – Married church minister ‘ran bottom spanking cult’

…Howard Curtis, 72, former senior minister of the Coulsdon Christian Fellowship, south London, allegedly ran a “cult” where grown women were persuaded to strip naked so he could spank them over his knee for his own pleasure…

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/11875172/Married-church-minister-ran-bottom-spanking-cult.html

#297 chapter 9 on 09.18.15 at 5:04 pm

Junior(having last name Trudeau,is better than winning the lottery) and Tom(mortgaged my house 11 times) plus every union in this country are more than concerned about bill c-377 which comes into effect Jan./16. Unions will now have to disclose to CRA and online to the public how roughly $ 4 billion a year of forced union dues are being spent. These tax exempt organizations are going to be accountable for just about every nickel that is spent from salaries, to political lobbying( supporting the separatists in Quebec PSAC) to questionable groups inside and outside of Canada. Unions are going under the microscope and it is understandable why the NDP and the Libs are chomping on the bit to get elected so they can scrap this bill. And don’t kid yourself when you see Tom and Junior sparring it out on TV, it’s pure theatre.

#298 Tony on 09.18.15 at 5:33 pm

A big move down from the open to the close of trading in the Canadian dollar today. One that won’t make the news. Either the NDP gets a minority or majority in the Canadian election.

#299 Alex on 09.18.15 at 7:15 pm

Just as I predicted – no rate hike – won’t be one until we are well into 2016 so sitt back and enjoy free money for a while longer.

Manipulated stats are not US reality – feds know that

#300 300 % on 09.19.15 at 1:54 am

Worthy of 300…. 300% chance no fed hike for a long long time

#301 Burton on 09.19.15 at 3:42 pm

Hey Garth,
Could explain how the “Leap Manifesto” might effect ones balanced portfolio? Stephen Lewis is quoted as claiming this to be NDP policy, even though it did not come up in the recent leaders debate.