The irreconcilable

SEAL modified

Six sleeps only now until we know if the Americans will be raising rates. The current betting? About one in three that the hike will come on Thursday, two in three that it will be in October and three in three that it will be by the end of the year.

This is called “tightening of monetary policy,” in case your boyfriend happens to ask. It’s also referred to as “the removal of stimulus,” which might equally interest him. The US central bank wants to throttle back on cheap money since the economy there is growing smartly and (as with your mate) too much stimulus could lead to explosive consequences. So better to reduce the incentive to borrow and spend too much now before inflation jumps and pesky workers start demanding more raises.

The contrast between them and us is stark. While the Bank of Canada opted this week not to drop its key rate for a third time in 2015, lots of people still think another chop is inevitable. “The Bank of Canada’s decision to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 0.5% last week was largely as expected in light of the recent news that the real economy returned to growth in June,” says economist David Madani. “Nevertheless, we expect GDP growth to be pretty underwhelming in the second half of this year and, as a result, we still anticipate that the Bank will be forced to cut rates for a third time to only 0.25% soon.”

That would be a big deal – a rate cut in Canada happening just as the US moves rates higher for the first time in a decade. You can just imagine where that would leave the loonie. By the way, the next possible date for a Canadian rate change would be Wednesday, October 21st – just two days after the federal election, which will also be consequential. After all, if the tax-and-spend Dippers or the we-love-deficits Libs gain power, expect the dollar to already be wobbling. Should be one heck of a week.

Now, let’s talk about you.

The discussion here yesterday on whether or not it’s fair or insane to rein in TFSA contributions (as Mulcair and Trudeau have promised) nicely illustrates what’s going on in our society. On one side there are the bulk of people who have saved little, if anything, and believe anyone better off than them must be crooked, parasitic, exploitative, privileged or an evil, wealth-sucking ‘rentier’. On the other are those who have money or aspire to be affluent, and think the first group are commies.

Collectively, there’s no mistaking the fact we’re in serious crap. The gap between these two groups is growing wider by the day. There are only about 250,000 wealthy people in Canada (investible assets of over a million), even though 70% of us own property which is more inflated in value than ever. The trouble is, that real estate comes with massive debt, the extent of which we learned on Friday.

StatsCan says it’s hit a new high of just under 165% of after-tax income. Given the fact lots of people have no debt, the ones who do are shouldering massive amounts of it – mostly related to real estate. Mortgages and secured lines of credit are romping ahead about 6% a year. Overall credit growth was just under 2% in the second quarter of 2015, at which time income grew by 0.8%. So, yeah, debt is increasing more than twice as quickly as wages. If interest rates were not at historic low level, this would be an economic disaster.

That, of course, is why we obsess on this pathetic blog about the future direction of rates. Most people, including almost everyone under 35, believe rates will never rise again. Older people, in general, understand what a jump in the cost of money can do. They’ve lived it. Given the fact older people tend to have more assets and income than younger ones, this just adds to the fun we’re all heading for over the next two years.

By the way, if you think voting for the NDP or the Liberals will delay the inevitable Bank of Canada, mortgage fate and LOC increases, think again. Our central bank and bond markets have followed the US ones almost 95% of the time over the last quarter century, and there’s no reason to expect a change now. The federal government does not dictate interest rates, which have only one long-term direction in which to travel.

Well, after the discussion here yesterday there’s little more to be said. The divisions between us are stark and economic in nature. Irresponsible election candidates are making them worse. Telling people their lives will be improved if the affluent and corporations are dinged is a lie. Plain and simple. You could screw over every one of the 254,000 rich people in Canada and average families would see no benefit. Besides, you can be sure a bunch will leave. Wouldn’t you?

Maybe this weekend we should look at this through the eyes of a homeless Syrian family running from the cops down a railway line in central Europe. Let’s try it.

267 comments ↓

#1 lala on 09.11.15 at 6:47 pm

lala first in the row.

#2 lala on 09.11.15 at 6:51 pm

Feds are going to test the water by 0.25 increase next Thursday. Damage it will be bigger if the show they scared, 100 % positive, lala knows everything.

#3 Randy on 09.11.15 at 6:52 pm

I knew there were a lot of dippers in Canada but seeing the latest polls make me realize that my estimate was way too low.

#4 Bob Guccione on 09.11.15 at 6:58 pm

“…too much stimulus could lead to explosive consequences…”

Sigh.

Tonight’s post is as good as reading our old “Letters to Penthouse” section, Garth.

Sadly, there’s no quality porn in Heaven for Jim Flaherty and me to read.

Thank God for this blog :)

#5 Brian on 09.11.15 at 6:58 pm

If the fed moves, then I think that Canada will not. The further diversion of two economies.

#6 Eddie on 09.11.15 at 7:00 pm

“You could screw over every one of the 254,000 rich people in Canada and average families would see no benefit. Besides, you can be sure a bunch will leave. Wouldn’t you?

Maybe this weekend we should look at this through the eyes of a homeless Syrian family running from the cops down a railway line in central Europe. Let’s try it.”
———————-
I’m not sure I get the analogy…?

#7 Owe Canada on 09.11.15 at 7:00 pm

The following numbers are from the credit market summary data table for Canada which is on the Statistics Canada website:

At the end of June, 2015 the total household, government (all levels) and business debt in Canada (bottom line of the credit market summary data table – total debt outstanding) was $6.02 trillion.

In the first 6 months of this year the total debt outstanding increased by $258 billion. In the calendar year 2014 it increased by $258 billion. In 2013 it increased by $287 billion. In 2012 it increased by $272 billion.

The approximate beginning of the global financial crisis was June, 2007. At the end of June, 2007 the total debt outstanding was $3.74 trillion. In the last 8 years it has increased from $3.74 trillion to $6.02 trillion. This is an increase of 60%.

Looking at the total debt outstanding in Canada excluding domestic financial institutions (7th line up from the bottom of the credit market summary data table):

At the end of June, 2015 the total debt outstanding excluding domestic financial institutions was $5.04 trillion.

In the first 6 months of this year the total debt outstanding excluding domestic financial institutions increased by $228 billion. In the calendar year 2014 it increased by $246 billion. In 2013 it increased by $272 billion. In 2012 it increased by $259 billion.

At the end of June, 2007 the total debt outstanding excluding domestic financial institutions was $3.01 trillion. In the last 8 years it has increased from $3.01 trillion to $5.04 trillion. This is an increase of 67%.

(The start date of the data table can be changed by clicking on the “add/remove data” tab at the top of the page.)

http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/pick-choisir?lang=eng&p2=33&id=3780122

#8 Paul on 09.11.15 at 7:08 pm

By the way, if you think voting for the NDP or the Liberals will delay the inevitable Bank of Canada, mortgage fate and LOC increases, think again.
————————————————————-
Most likely it will raise them sooner as our dollar will need defending.

#9 Smoking Man on 09.11.15 at 7:10 pm

We are living in one fk-up world.

Power, The boss, our overlords who hide behind the curtains are truly a demented species of late..

These are the offspring of truly great thinking men, they grew up in decadence and privilege, their confidence and fist pumps all based around the job they pulled off on Sept 11 2001. Bad timing YouTube happened.

When you humiliate, and don’t finish the job, you make a great enemy. For Example:

Japan was inspired after ww2 to become a great producer and exporter of goods, they refused imports out of pure hate, mistake, their currency spiked and they got crushed.

Now the new Russia, I would bet that Putin memorized Sun Tuz’s Art of War and can instantly re sight any sentence. Not us, No men of logic left. Russia has far superior weapons than we do.

You don’t act like Putin unless you are holding pocket aces and two on the flop. (Dr Smoking Man)

I’m a conservative, with the Neo part left out. Do I hate Jews? hell no, but those freaks in hats who wail at the wall are disturbing to me. Just as much as those Ala Akbar bums in the air facing east. Those Christians in the south with nothing behind the eyeballs.

How does one get so psychotic, at what point on the trail did they get lost. Who got to them? What thing happened in there lives that made em go bat shit crazy?

This Syria thing is the most dangerous thing to happen to the Human race in the last 200000 years. That’s when they were exiled from Nectonight.

And no one sees it.

Dr Smoking Man
PhD Herdonomics

Broadcasting Live From Seneca Casino tonight

#10 Smartalox on 09.11.15 at 7:12 pm

I sure hope that all this talk about TFSAs has an impact on the campaign. I’m pretty peeved that after years of being looked down upon by the members of my extended family because we deign to rent and save instead of taking on ruinous levels of debt – suddenly I’m being targeted for tax hikes because my family’s combined income apparently makes us ‘millionaires’.

Screw them. I don’t earn a million dollars, and I’m no millionaire, not by half. But I am on track, and after spending 15 years digging myself out of debt – after growing up in a family often less than two paycheques away from eviction – I have no intention to return to those conditions.

I’d hate to leave this country; I’m tied to it, and I have a role to play within it. But I won’t stand to be punished for my success.

#11 Kuato Lives on 09.11.15 at 7:12 pm

People in Japan in 1990 thought rates would never rise again. 26 years later – they’re still right …..

#12 kommykim on 09.11.15 at 7:13 pm

RE:After all, if the tax-and-spend Dippers or the we-love-deficits Libs gain power

Hmmmm. I seem to remember that it was the Liberals, with Paul Martin as finance minister, who posted surpluses and started paying down the debt.
Under Mulroney the debt increased by 67% in 10 years.
Under Chretien the debt increased by 1.8% in 10 years.
Under Paul Martin the debt DEcreased by 4.7% in 2 years.
Under Harper the debt increased by 13% in 8 years.

#13 Grey Man on 09.11.15 at 7:13 pm

Tightening of monetary policy = Tapering a Ponzi .
Can’t be done the pyramid collapses.
QE4——–QEI I=Infiity . Saw a Trillion Zimbabwe dollar today worth about 40 cents US , thats what happens when they print print print.
Think it can’t happen just watch.

#14 Former Fool on 09.11.15 at 7:14 pm

You could screw over every one of the 254,000 rich people in Canada and average families would see no benefit. Besides, you can be sure a bunch will leave. Wouldn’t you?

Well said Garth! I’m not a member of the 254,000 rich people in Canada but I have a good job that pays me well here. I’m here because of that good job (which I enjoy) and I have family here. But if we get a government here hellbent on taxing those with high incomes and taking away incentives from businesses to operate here, I’ll be looking for opportunities down south. Plain and simple.

I have to say, I’m so tired of all the pissing and moaning people do, blaming everybody but themselves for their problems. Life isn’t fair. Deal with it. Adapt!

#15 MSM-Free Zone on 09.11.15 at 7:15 pm

“…By the way, if you think voting for the NDP or the Liberals will delay the inevitable Bank of Canada, mortgage fate and LOC increases, think again……”
_________________________

Sadly, if our Prime Manipulator had only stuck to his original campaign promises of openness, transparency, and accountability (plus a few small-c values thrown in for good measure) we wouldn’t be having this conversation today.

Instead, he now searches for the secret to the Holy Grail from Down Under.

#16 X on 09.11.15 at 7:21 pm

Even if the NDP or Liberals took all of the $ from the 1% and dispersed it to the 99%, it would be a matter of years before the financially ignorant pissed it away again, and it came back to the hands of the financially prudent…..

#17 cramar on 09.11.15 at 7:27 pm

Just read the other day that if the interest rate in Canada were to rise just 1% over the next few years, this would add another $500 million to the payments on Ontario’s existing debt. Gasp!

#18 common sense on 09.11.15 at 7:29 pm

And just think with the size of the USA and it’s potential, it’s debt is ONLY 18 trillion….

And Thank W. for most of that and creating havoc on the world to please his pappy…..

#19 mark on 09.11.15 at 7:29 pm

I’d vote for the guy who’d actually admit “your life will likely be worse no matter who wins and my plans are mostly hot air and bulls!%$”

#20 Cici on 09.11.15 at 7:34 pm

#1 and #2

Lala…are you in fact Smoking Man?

#21 Ken Nash on 09.11.15 at 7:34 pm

“There are only about 250,000 wealthy people in Canada (investible assets of over a million)”

Does this include an employer pension plan? There’s 55,000 teachers in Ontario. After 30 years of working the Teachers Pension Plan states there is $1.4 million invested in plan, 50% by the teacher matched by the province, to cover the teachers retirement.

Please tell me I’m wrong! Ontario teachers make up 22% of Canada’s most affluent people? It can’t be true.

#22 Andy on 09.11.15 at 7:36 pm

In my mind, many people are using the current election grandstanding to blame the Harper government for their lack of savings and high debt and assume that anyone else will be able to fix things.
Sorry, but it won’t make any difference to the financial issues facing many people regardless of who wins.
The election will not resolve personal financial challenges that are the result of bigger house focus, poor saving behaviours and lack of personal responsibility out there.
For many people who have played the system with expensive toys and no savings, on Oct 20, regardless of who is in Ottawa, their current debt issues, real estate myopia and blaming everyone else will continue.

#23 joblo on 09.11.15 at 7:46 pm

Lucky seal

#24 bigtown on 09.11.15 at 7:48 pm

Goldman Sachs sees oil as low as $20 a barrel for WTI….my word they can be a tad depressive on occasion.

Our family buys the basic Roger’s package with CTV and CBC news which gives a periscopic Canadian view of world affairs. All week both CTV and CBC were hammering away at Harper and the foreign service for inadequate response to the Syrian implosion. Most media in Canada is framing the Liberals and the NDP as a more humane and caring vote at any and all opportunities.

Yesterday I cannot recall if it was CBC or CTV who interviewed the Swedish AMBASSADOR to Canada repeatedly baiting and goading him in a quagmire query to the effect Canada is a n’er do well in not enough aid to the Syrian mission. The professional civil servant ever on his toes with as much charm as our glorious Queen Elizabeth II declined to comment but added nicely, “Sweden and Canada are joined together in our common values of protecting human rights for all.” You can only imagine the frustration the anchor must have experienced as he tried over and over at the end of the interview to get the Swedish Ambassador to fold and frame the Syrian affair with their network’s anti Harper rhetoric. It was a true Canadian moment.

#25 Brian Ripley on 09.11.15 at 7:49 pm

“Besides, you can be sure a bunch (the affluent and corporations) will leave. Wouldn’t you?” Garth

I updated my Household Mortgage & Debt Chart this morning that also contains plots for GDP, Net Trade and FDI data.

http://www.chpc.biz/household-debt.html

I argue that many “affluent and corporations” have already “left” Look at the FDI plot on the chart.

Foreign Direct Investment OUT has been higher than IN over the last 18 years meaning that “Canadian” companies are investing outside of Canada to get a better return on Capital and Labour.

18 years is definitely a trend that shows no sign of reversal. The private sector capital flow is towards low labour and less regulation jurisdictions.

In the U.S. the net FDI appears to be rolling over from a big rolling top created since about 2006 (according to a lookup at tradingeconomics.com). In 2002 net FDI in the U.S. was negative.

The world is devaluing currencies as a means to increase exports. I would be surprised if Canada did not follow suit.

#26 prairie person on 09.11.15 at 7:51 pm

The heritage home at the end of the block that is up for sale for 995,000.00 is still not sold. No sign of people standing in the yard ogling it and salivating. No women stroking the stone foundation. No guys walking around the yard imagining themselves being the envied owners. No HAM. The price is high for this area. Standard advice is don’t own the most expensive house on the street. This would be it. Since it had a sold sign on it about two years ago, no one has lived in it. Extensive renovations, upgrading, fixing problems associated with age. Wish I knew that was paid to get some idea of what the hoped for profit is. Price paid+cost of transaction+cost of holding+cost of upgrade+cost of selling. My best guess is that hoped for profit would be 200,000. Maybe some blog dog with experience has some idea of what a renovator, flipper has in mind as a percentage profit. Keeping in mind that as good as the neighbourhood is, assessments have slid a bit every year for the last four years.

#27 Let's try on 09.11.15 at 7:52 pm

#6 Eddie on 09.11.15 at 7:00 pm

“You could screw over every one of the 254,000 rich people in Canada and average families would see no benefit. Besides, you can be sure a bunch will leave. Wouldn’t you?

Maybe this weekend we should look at this through the eyes of a homeless Syrian family running from the cops down a railway line in central Europe. Let’s try it.”
———————-
I’m not sure I get the analogy…?

Very simple.

Garth is encouraging the 254,000 rich Canadians to adopt the estimated 9 million Syrian refugees, who have fled their homes since the outbreak of civil war in March 2011.

#28 nnso on 09.11.15 at 7:53 pm

you can be sure a bunch will leave

To where? USA
British loyalist return to their home land because of socialist government.

#29 John on 09.11.15 at 7:54 pm

CAGARY PAWN SHOPS BUSY – FOLKS HEADING BACK EAST..
“Which means that for all the pain in the oil sector, one industry is booming: pawn shops. As CBC reports, “some of the newly rich and long time wealthy in Calgary’s once hot economy are now looking for fast cash because of the economic downturn, and they’re turning to pawn shops.”
“Right now we have one, two…10 Rolexes for sale, two Panerais, a few Tag Heuers,” said John Sanford, one of the owners of Rocky Mountain Pawn on Macleod Trail, as he counts the luxury watches in a glass case.
He has 100 more in a back room. He will have many more because “the economy has changed his clientele too, as formerly well-paid people are telling him they’ve been laid off or plan to leave town.”
“People have come in and they’ve said, ‘That’s it, I’m heading back to Ottawa, Montreal,'” he said.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-11/inside-ground-zero-canadas-burst-oil-bubble

#30 Guy Willoughby on 09.11.15 at 7:57 pm

Good day Garth:

Interesting article. if the Federal Reserve ups the interest rate, it will be nominal. The American currency has been going up and it has a negative effect on their ability to trade, further increases in the value of the American dollar will have a greater negative effect on trade.

Do you think we should tell them? — Garth

#31 Nomad on 09.11.15 at 7:57 pm

Early this year I said that we won’t see 4% mortgage rates in Canada before the end of 2015. Some people here thought rates would go up. Sure, one day they will, in 2017 maybe. Instead, for now, they’ve been REDUCED twice.

Look at what Mulcair and Trudeau are promising and realize that politicians will ALWAYS take the side of voters.

#32 FED and Syrian refugees on 09.11.15 at 7:57 pm

And the most important question that could not make it to today’s blog:

How is the FED interest rate increase going to improve the life of the Syrian refugees?

#33 saskatoon on 09.11.15 at 8:02 pm

#239 Daisy Mae

unfortunately, advocating any governmental taxation (unless ‘voluntary’) involves the initiation of force.

in other words, there would no need for a TFSA in a truly free and peaceful society.

#34 DON on 09.11.15 at 8:05 pm

@ #6 Eddie and the rest of the blog.

If it helps to understand the Syrian folks running down the railway with their children…just picture Harper and his PMO are the cops in hot pursuit.

#35 tkid on 09.11.15 at 8:10 pm

No, Garth is not saying ‘adopt a Syrian’, he’s saying there but for the grace of God go you and I. Houses, debt, possessions are things that get left behind if the neighbourhood becomes unsafe.

I agree with SM, what is happening in Syria is of great concern. Why did western civilization stir the hornets nest in the middle east?

#36 Shawn on 09.11.15 at 8:20 pm

Calgary Cash Running Out?

Not by the look of the Rolex prices at the pawn shop that was mentioned above.

Rolex 69173 White Roman Dial $2450.00
Rolex 69173 Black Diamond Dial & Bez $3950.00
Rolex 16600 Seadweller “Z” Series $7250.00
Rolex 16600 Seadweller “M” Series $7950.00
Rolex 16520 Daytona $11,700.00
Rolex 11610LN Ceramic Submariner $8250.00
Rolex 116713 Ceramic TT GMT $12,500.00
Rolex 116710 BLNR Batman GMT II $10,200.00

***********************************
Who would pay over $5,000 for a used watch? Not exactly blow-out prices.

But I imagine prices on new Rolexes must be set to soar given the dollar. If you want a Rolex (and who doesn’t?) rush out and see if you can get one at a price that has not jumped due to the low dollar. New is just so must better than a questionable used one.

Money still abounds in Calgary it seems. At least for the 1%.

Half the people today are poorer than average!

#37 Let's try on 09.11.15 at 8:22 pm

#14 Former Fool on 09.11.15 at 7:14 pm

You could screw over every one of the 254,000 rich people in Canada and average families would see no benefit. Besides, you can be sure a bunch will leave. Wouldn’t you?

Well said Garth!

suckup/

I’m not a member of the 254,000 rich people in Canada but I have a good job that pays me well here. I’m here because of that good job (which I enjoy) and I have family here. But if we get a government here hellbent on taxing those with high incomes and taking away incentives from businesses to operate here, I’ll be looking for opportunities down south. Plain and simple.

Fine. Someone else can take your good job.
You can continue to represent the interest of a group where you don’t belong, according to your own admission, “down south”.

I have to say, I’m so tired of all the pissing and moaning people do, blaming everybody but themselves for their problems.

Exactly. you can stop your own moaning now, no need to blame anyone for you moving down south.

Life isn’t fair. Deal with it. Adapt!

So long…

#38 Shawn on 09.11.15 at 8:23 pm

OMG the debt

This just in: average debt is 1980% of monthly after tax income.

Why is the ratio to annual income so important when the debt might be paid off over 20 years?

Why would debt NOT be at record highs when interest rates are at record lows?

#39 Gary in Kelowna on 09.11.15 at 8:23 pm

Garth, The change back on the TFSA issue seems like a forgone conclusion. What about the changes that were made to RRIF withdrawals? Will the NDP or Liberals change that back too? I have not seen any discussion regarding that issue. Any input? Thanks

#40 Average Canadian on 09.11.15 at 8:24 pm

Garth,

Please write a blog post on what your platform would be to improve the state of affairs for Canadians. We can then only hope someone from one of the three parties rips of an idea and implements it if elected.

Thanks,

Average Canadian

#41 JimH on 09.11.15 at 8:26 pm

#14 Former Fool on 09.11.15 at 7:14 pm
“…I have to say, I’m so tired of all the pissing and moaning people do, blaming everybody but themselves for their problems. Life isn’t fair. Deal with it. Adapt!”
=================================
Excellent post! Couldn’t agree more! Well said!

#42 Smoking Man on 09.11.15 at 8:28 pm

#20 Cici on 09.11.15 at 7:34 pm
#1 and #2

Lala…are you in fact Smoking Man?
……

That was insulating, I thought we had a thing going..

#43 Irwin on 09.11.15 at 8:29 pm

Today’s word count:
Alberta: 0
Calgary: 0
Ft Mac: 0
Irma la Douce: 0

I think we’re on a roll!

#44 Bob Santarossa on 09.11.15 at 8:30 pm

Harper goosing RRSP transfers to real estate and increasing rent income per CMHC; hence increasing debt to equity, is even more scandalous and shameful.

Garth, you cannot have it both ways. Harper will add to the over leveraged problem and make it so people will not save for retirement.

I’ll take some rich people bashing from the Libs/NDP over what Harper the “economist” offers which will lull many into economic hardship when rates go up and well into the future.

#45 Sheane Wallace on 09.11.15 at 8:31 pm

#17 cramar

more like 3 billions
——————-

#7 Owe Canada

The great legacy of Steve’s pee ci party
He is experienced and has a proven track record.. of screwing up. The nice part is that his opponents are of similar quality. So he has a chance! Go Steve!

——————–
#29 John

Oil at 20 would be delight. Will expedite my departure.
As for the CAD….

#46 cramar on 09.11.15 at 8:34 pm

“Maybe this weekend we should look at this through the eyes of a homeless Syrian family running from the cops down a railway line in central Europe. Let’s try it.”

———–

Yes. It will help to be thankful and to get our existence in Canada in proper perspective. Vastly different than being homeless because you cannot buy a house for $1 million cash.

Just watched a TED video (25 min), an interview with Bill and Melinda Gates. Very interesting!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aSL-iIskEFU

The two things that impressed me were:

1. Melinda and her daughter stayed for a few days with a family in rural Tanzania to see what life is like in their shoes. They stayed in a hut used by goats. Very impressive.

2. They were asked by the TED interviewer, if they were going to make their three children billionaires (through inheritance). Bill immediately shot back “NO!” He said they want their children to make it on their own.

#47 Here there on 09.11.15 at 8:35 pm

Nobody will screw the 245K. We will stay the course, no matter what. Let’s no be confused by figures. So, in 2007 total debt was $3.01 trillion. On November seven of 2007 the Canadian dollar was worth the equivalent of $1.1024 U.S. Dollar. Debt equivalent of $2.70 trillion U.S. dollars. Today thanks to the steadfast, strong economic PC leadership of Mr. Harper and a 30 per cent Canadian dollar devaluation, the debt represent only, $3.5 trillion U.S. dollars. Piece of cake. Even on today’s picture of the couple with the young PC follower, are smiling.

#48 Balmuto on 09.11.15 at 8:41 pm

Global deflation means that if the Fed starts hiking it will be short-lived. Am I a doomer? No. I think we’ll do just fine with a little deflation or low inflation for some time. I think the deflationary forces are not coming from weak demand but from relentless improvements in productivity and cost-cutting as globalization allows companies to more easily shift to lower-cost producers. There are too many competitors globally that will compete with you on cost so you can’t raise prices significantly. That’s why with all the employment gains and even some wage gains in the U.S. inflation hasn’t budged. It looks to me like there’s a secular shift underway to a lower inflation environment that has very little to do with business cycles or interest rates.

#49 Sheane Wallace on 09.11.15 at 8:41 pm

#41 Here there

And of course you do realize how much our GDP has shrunk in USD, do you? How about 40 %?

So the debt to GDP has still doubled! And this is what matters.

#50 Freedom First on 09.11.15 at 8:42 pm

Yes. Jealousy and envy abounds. On this Blog and in the face to face world. It is why I live an incognito Freedom First lifestyle. Easy for me to do too, as I always sought Freedom First. I’m impressed with myself, what others think is irrelevant. When you are thrust out on your own in this world at 17 you find out quickly you are all you got. And that is ok. I wouldn’t change one second of my life, and for good reason. I am blessed.

#51 BC_Doc on 09.11.15 at 8:47 pm

“Maybe this weekend we should look at this through the eyes of a homeless Syrian family running from the cops down a railway line in central Europe. Let’s try it.”

Here’s to our great country, Garth. How lucky we are to live here. I feel so fortunate that I was accepted here as an immigrant over two decades ago.

Cheers,

BC Doc

#52 Freedom First on 09.11.15 at 8:53 pm

#38 Shawn

The thinking behind your comment is puke inducing.

#53 Ret on 09.11.15 at 8:55 pm

#14

Does this include an employer pension plan? -No

After 30 years of working the Teachers Pension Plan “states” there is $1.4 million invested in plan, 50% by the teacher matched by the province, to cover the teachers retirement.

$1.4M sounds very high for 30 years. Over $40,000 a year for 30 years? I’m not buying the numbers. And the link is???

A full teacher pension in Ontario is 35 years, and not 30 years so I don’t know why that 30 year number was quoted.

Parents and communities that support their schools and their teachers have better academic and social outcomes for their students than those who don’t.

No link, just a 30 year observation.

#54 Sheane Wallace on 09.11.15 at 8:57 pm

I advise everyone to go to the grocery stores this weekend, and in the following few week in order to enjoy for the last time the current ‘relatively low ‘food prices.

You have not idea what is going to happen to the CAD.

#55 Ret on 09.11.15 at 8:58 pm

That would be #21, not #14.

#56 For those about to flop... on 09.11.15 at 9:04 pm

That seal smelt something fishy going on!

#57 Smoking Man on 09.11.15 at 9:05 pm

#50 Freedom First on 09.11.15 at 8:42 pm
Yes. Jealousy and envy abounds. On this Blog and in the face to face world. It is why I live an incognito Freedom First lifestyle. Easy for me to do too, as I always sought Freedom First. I’m impressed with myself, what others think is irrelevant. When you are thrust out on your own in this world at 17 you find out quickly you are all you got. And that is ok. I wouldn’t change one second of my life, and for good reason. I am blessed.

You are blessed , you figured it out early, took me like fifty years..

Although im lucky sort of… I found a phyco, crazy ass woman who i married. And happy I did. One in a million.

She read my book and was disgusted, I said, its cause you never worked, never had to hustle. Never had to play the game, I protected you.

She got it. Aggreed.

Showed her the comments from my new pal on the book review, bones thats you. Thanks for the inspiration to finish.

Wifee poo hated 50 shades of gray, and mine, Vegas Fiction… But it was more of the fear of judgement, what will her two true frends think when they realize her hubby wrote it…

Bones, you have no idea how you’ve help my life.

Thank you..

#58 The Markets The Last 15 Times The Fed Tightened on 09.11.15 at 9:07 pm

What Happened To Markets The Last 15 Times The Fed Tightened… from Deutsche Bank Chief U.S. Equity Strategist David Bianco.

http://www.businessinsider.com/history-of-federal-reserve-tightening-2013-1

#59 SWL1976 on 09.11.15 at 9:11 pm

#9 Smoking Man

And no one sees it.

Many many people do see it SM. However, few people accept that we have indeed for years been played a fool.

I just finished a week long visit to small town Ontario and I can assure you that the illusion there is alive and well. It’s too hard for most people to accept the reality of the situation. Distractions are comforting and plentiful in todays society. Most are still living off the coat tails of the post war boom, oblivious to the fact that the take down of America is almost complete. The real crazies know that to form a global government you cannot have any superpowers. At least not one with a constitution based on the declaracion of independence.

So as many millions of people in North America this weekend will celebrate the start of another NFL season, they will also unknowingly participate in the most influential propaganda campaign the world has ever seen.

It’s getting harder everyday to ignore the reality of the situation. Sadly, it doesn’t matter who wins the up coming elections here at home or south of the border. It really won’t make a lick of difference. Modern democracy, better known now as corporatocracy is simply a show to pacify the masses

The stage has been set.

How people come to terms with our new reality is entirely up to the individual. Personally I would rather know than not, but that’s just me. I understand why people don’t want to look, or simply deny a harsh reality, but that is their choice.

My analogy of the herd goes like this…

As a young boy growing up on a farm we used to let the cows out into a fresh pasture in late spring or early summer. We would herd the cows close to the gate that was wide open to a fresh lush green field of grass. All the cows would stand by the open gate not wanting to make a move into the fresh field of pasture. Eventually one brave cow would sniff things out and cross the line to the fresh pasture. Once that happened, all the dummy cows, once afraid of the open gate would stampeed the open gate now terrified of being left behind.

And that is how from a young age I have understood the herd. Who would have thought that collectively we are not that much different from docile domesticated animals that live on farms.

Hopefully a mass awakening can unfold like cows rushing the gate…

Time will tell

#60 For those about to flop... on 09.11.15 at 9:18 pm

I earn less than 40k a year and I am maxing out my TSFA.
There are two reasons for this ….over the last decade I was saving for a down payment on a condo/ bungalow and I have now given up on this plan and I now switch that money over once a year and invest it.
The second reason is that I am making it my top financial priority ,I am not going to do the RRSP thing and so it is a matter of having a chance of having a respectable retirement not sucking on the goverments teat until I die .
Message to the future government :don’t worry about me I’ll be fine just give me the tools to fend for myself.Its not fun being a one legged man in an ass kicking contest.

#61 Waterloo Resident on 09.11.15 at 9:33 pm

The washing machine in my house went on the ‘Fritz’ again today. Called the repair guy but he cannot come over to fix it until AFTER the weekend.

So I went down to my local laundromat, haven’t been there in 2 or 3 years now. Last time I visited the place it was in perfect condition, like new. It has been in the area since around 2002 so its a common fixture here. But I was shocked at what I saw; out of every 6 machines, 5 of them have “out of order” signs on them !!! And for the driers; half of those are not working either ! Something weird is going on, it was at the normally busy time of the day yet the place was EMPTY. Maybe the lack of customers is one reason the owner has no money to fix the broken down machines?
I attribute this the the fact that fewer people have money to spend on things other than mortgages now that more and more of their money is being funneled to buying a new home, or buying a newer LARGER home.

The previous day I met a friend at the local IKEA store, I just love their Salmon dinners. But I was a bit surprised to see that the price has gone up from $7.99 to $9.99 , and more importantly, the size of the salmon is now half the size it once was, and there is no more round ‘Vegie-patties, only a few green string beans on the side. In other words, only about 1/2 of the food now for about 20% more in price. I attribute this to the rising cost of food now that our Canadian dollar is sinking?

So from what I have seen the past few months, consumers are pumping more and more money into homes with hopes to get RICH QUICK, and because of rising food prices they have less and less disposable cash, and at the same time restaurants are rising their prices and shrinking serving sizes, making consumers desire to go out to eat even less than before.

The result is that our Service Economy is seeing a dramatic shrinkage in demand for practically everything. If this continues or gets worse as interest rates rise, a lot of service sector jobs are going to disappear.

I wonder what the lag time will be between a few million service workers losing their job and the fall of real estate prices? How long can a laid off worker keep his house when he cannot pay the mortgage anymore?

#62 Linda on 09.11.15 at 9:43 pm

‘tax & spend Dippers & we love deficits Liberals’. Interesting. The NDP have never been the federal government majority; we only have their provincial legacy to look at. Despite claims to the contrary, it hasn’t been 100% unmitigated disaster in all cases, though I’ll certainly grant that it all too often has been one fiscal mess.

Now lets look at the two parties that have formed Canada’s government – the Liberals vs. the Conservatives. Slight deficits were the norm under both Lester B Pearson & Pierre Elliot Trudeau for their many years in power prior to 1980. PET ran some whopping deficits for his final 4 year stint as PM prior to Mulroney taking over the reins, but prior to that time deficits were generally slight in nature. There were even a couple of very slight surpluses under Pearson & Trudeau.

Mulroney came into power in 1984 & was in power until 1992, with Kim Campbell succeeding for a brief 9 month period before the Liberals regained power. From 1984 to 1992, Mulroney ran 9 consecutive deficits & most of them were not slight in nature. The succeeding Liberal Mr Chretien ran 4 deficits from 1993 to 1996, which began as big deficits & slowly subsided to much smaller deficits by 1996. Then came 7 consecutive surplus years from 1997 to 2003. Mr Paul Martin succeeded Chretien when he stepped down & for the 2004/2005 years the Liberals ran two more surpluses, for a grand total of 9 consecutive surplus years. Now we come to Mr. Harper. For 2006/2007 his government also had surpluses, but since then it has been 7 consecutive years of deficits, including 2014. The Conservatives (& the ‘Con’ part could be construed as truth in advertising) did announce they had finally kept one of their election promises which was balancing the budget. Which the slump in oil & commodity prices in general destroyed almost as soon as it was announced. But I’m not about to let them off the hook because they balanced the budget by stealing funds from the EI fund – to the tune of a billion with a B. So ‘they’ didn’t exactly balance the budget so much as move items around the spreadsheet to make it look good – & used our taxpayer dollars to make political hay. Which all politicians do, but – I’m pretty sure not one thin dime of the billion taken out of EI will ever be returned, especially if the CONservative’s do get re-elected. What I think is that we will see yet more deficits even as they pound their chests proclaiming they’ve balanced the books. Because you know, if raiding EI worked before, you can bet that little piggy bank is going to be shaken next time the Conservative’s are looking to make political hay.

My characterization of the Liberals as deficit-embracers is based on Mr. Trudeau’s pledge to run many years of deficits, if elected. — Garth

#63 Smoking Man on 09.11.15 at 9:44 pm

The moment a writer knows hes a writer .

The hot chic on stage singing, bouncing , and all your thinking about is.

The freek on the dance floor, dancing by him self. Wondering who he has murdered.

#64 Here there on 09.11.15 at 9:50 pm

#49 Sheane Wallace
Of course, the old GDP. Rest assure that Harper and his minions, even, if they don’t read e-mails, are now very busy looking for who else is peeing on coffee mugs. But they will deal with that pesky, trifle of GDP imbalance.

#65 kommykim on 09.11.15 at 9:55 pm

RE: #14 Former Fool on 09.11.15 at 7:14 pm
I have to say, I’m so tired of all the pissing and moaning people do, blaming everybody but themselves for their problems.

Me too. I’m also tired of people pissing and moaning about having to pay taxes. Deal with it!

#66 Leo Trollstoy on 09.11.15 at 9:55 pm

#50 Freedom First on 09.11.15 at 8:42 pm

/thumbsup

Well done!

#67 Leo Trollstoy on 09.11.15 at 10:00 pm

#16 X on 09.11.15 at 7:21 pm

I totally agree.

People are either able to build wealth more make excuses.

The evidence is clear over time. One either has increasing $ or doesn’t.

Nuff said

#68 Leo Trollstoy on 09.11.15 at 10:01 pm

My characterization of the Liberals as deficit-embracers is based on Mr. Trudeau’s pledge to run many years of deficits, if elected. — Garth

Bingo!

#69 Vancouver Troy on 09.11.15 at 10:08 pm

If someone has a low income and can only afford to invest a few grand a year in their TFSA, 100% of it would be tax free.

If someone is rich and had $100k-$200k a year to invest only 5%-10% of it would be tax free in their TFSA.

TFSAs benefit lower income people more than rich people. I make a low income but can still do that math.

#70 Bottoms_Up on 09.11.15 at 10:08 pm

Mr. Trudeau’s pledge to run many years of deficits, if elected. — Garth
——————————-
Actually his pledge is to look after crumbling infrastructure, something that has been neglected in Canada for decades.

#71 Berniebee on 09.11.15 at 10:09 pm

#11 Kuato Lives

“People in Japan in 1990 thought rates would never rise again. 26 years later – they’re still right …..”

People in Japan in 1985 never thought house prices would fall and not recover for 30 years – they were wrong…

#72 Nemesis on 09.11.15 at 10:15 pm

#MeanWhileBackInLunenburg,Or… #ClassWarfare!GoodGod,IsThat… #GreyPouponOnYourWiener?

https://youtu.be/wyzxg66CZ68

#73 common sense on 09.11.15 at 10:23 pm

#58..It’s different this time…much different…

FREEDOM FIRST..I love ya and respect you but really your tag line of “Putting your freedom first always” is fine branding but getting a little stale and I’ve only been here a few weeks..can we have an updated line…Please?

L. Cohen lines has been from the song “Everybody Knows” have been running run my head lately..

Everybody knows the dice are loaded
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich stay rich….

Everybody knows the boat is leaking
Everybody knows the captain lied
Everybody’s got this broken feeling
Like their father or their dog just died…

Well in my small town those that never felt that way in the past are really starting to feel it now..

We live in interesting times and really can the 3 parties stir up any hope this election? I doubt it….

#74 Freedom First on 09.11.15 at 10:46 pm

#57 Smoking Man

Yes, you are blessed in many ways. I have met some nice beautiful phycos of my own. Would have kept them around if they could live apart from me. I live alone. I believe it’s better for both of us, me for sure. Must be a lot of worse a$$holes than me in the world. I’ve never been the one let go. Also, can’t imagine ever being with an old woman. Already have to go down 15-20 years younger.

#75 Smoking Man on 09.11.15 at 10:48 pm

https://youtu.be/JZi6yIDwnxw

Nectonite message

#76 Mark in Guelph on 09.11.15 at 10:49 pm

If the Fed fails to hike in September, what will change in time for a hike in October? Seriously, if we get no hike next week, will you US recovery cheerleaders concede that maybe things aren’t as good stateside as CNBC would have you believe?

#77 Prairieboy43 on 09.11.15 at 10:54 pm

Fall for me is the best time of year. Fishing for Salmon on West Coast, then Hunting season. Myself and some buds are heading up Northern AB for our annual Moose Hunt. We may luck out.
We will discuss Business, Politics, this blog, etc. Likely walk 10 -15 miles day in the Bush with full gear. It is a good workout. We will take the Old men with us this year. The 70 year olds want to hang with the GenX crowd. No complaining in this group.
Yes It will be a good time. Enjoy!

#78 Freedom First Always on 09.11.15 at 11:07 pm

#73 common sense

Yes. You are right. Done. Thank you!

I don’t have to write it anymore.

#79 Marco on 09.11.15 at 11:07 pm

Thanks Garth.

In 2006-07, the Conservatives inherited a surplus of $13.8 billion — which they turned into a deficit of $5.8 billion within two years.

Trudeau is the only candidate that is basing his economic platform on today’s reality. The only candidate seemingly not deceiving the electorate.
Even the Greens have come out and said they will not run a deficit. Hogwash.

Cheers.

#80 Washed Up Lawyer on 09.11.15 at 11:10 pm

It is interesting that up here in Fort McMurray I am starting to breathlessly follow the periodic shifts in the interest rates set by Central Bonkers and the potential for a reduction in TFSA contribution limits.

Here in the Taiga and being reliant upon oil sands development, I should be more interested in two other possible significant shifts.

First and foremost is the Primate Change Conference in Paris later this year. Next are the Alberta Government’s potential changes to my RFMA.

Changes to my RFMA (Registered Fur Management Area) could cripple my $4900 annual income from trapping. Mukluks on the ground tell me that the lynx population is not exactly burgeoning up here.

#81 Stu on 09.11.15 at 11:20 pm

Garth, I love the way you write. I don’t agree with some of your take on things but it’s always a pleasure to read your work. It always makes me take sober consideration before I’m in comfortable disagreement with you.
I thank you for your witty, elegant, and cogent arguments.
I, respectfully, disagree.
Mais, continue, s’il vous plait.
You’re fun.

#82 DON on 09.11.15 at 11:21 pm

59 SWL1976 on 09.11.15 at 9:11 pm

#9 Smoking Man

And no one sees it.

Many many people do see it SM. However, few people accept that we have indeed for years been played a fool.

***************************************

Head in sand! We can only hope for evolution inducing cosmic radiation.

What is happening is Syria is a little concerning…unarmed people fleeing due to war. Shouldn’t all efforts be put into ensuring that the bad people are stopped by the international community. This is ass backwards! I guess that’s why we have the term “Less We Forget”.

SWL1976: Thanks for the herd analogy. Like how you described the cows rushing through the fence worried about being left behind…Oh shit!

Smoking Man: I’d like to see the cards Putin is holding. The US warns him to stay out of Syria…he listens, waits, waits a little longer, a bit longgerr and then does what he wants. His opponents were too busy living the life to actually apply what they learned. Lost generation…when’s the next ship leaving to Nectonite.

#83 For those about to flop... on 09.11.15 at 11:24 pm

#74 Freedom First on 09.11.15 at 10:46 pm

Yes, you are blessed in many ways. I have met some nice beautiful phycos of my own. Would have kept them around if they could live apart from me. I live alone. I believe it’s better for both of us, me for sure. Must be a lot of worse a$$holes than me in the world. I’ve never been the one let go. Also, can’t imagine ever being with an old woman. Already have to go down 15-20 years younger.
—————————————-

Wow you really are a piece of work.
Ladies run don’t walk…
For all the people who stick up for this bag of poo,shame on you.

#84 Sheane Wallace on 09.11.15 at 11:27 pm

To say somebody can fix this mess without running deficit is a lie.

Enough political correctness, tell us the truth!

#85 Herf on 09.11.15 at 11:29 pm

With regards to yesterday’s comment by #170 Small Business,

“I listened to Mulcair and Trudeau’s interviews and they both want to help small businesses. What a joke. If they really wanted to help small businesses, they could try to help out the owner’s of small businesses struggling to make them work. It’s a huge sacrifice starting one.”

see the video clip at the following link for Trudeau’s view of small businesses:

http://www.therebel.media/trudeau_thinks_small_businesses_are_just_a_way

From a guy who’s never had to meet a payroll.

I think small business owners should feel absolutely insulted by Trudeau’s comment, and scared about what his party’s economic policies mean to them if they should form government on October 19th.

#86 lala on 09.11.15 at 11:31 pm

Cici that is unsalting…lala is unique bread. GT please don’t release who am I. Anyhow, someone explains me why my kid speaks better English then me. I have been living in NA for 15 years and she is 6 years old. That’s not fair.

#87 Jane Goodhall on 09.11.15 at 11:37 pm

To cramar

Just in time for the Ontario Liberals to raise Ontario portion of the H.S.T to back to 15% or higher.

This would bring in hundreds of millions if not billions so they will make us pay again.

#88 Jane Goodhall on 09.11.15 at 11:50 pm

To Gary in Kelowna

The NDP and Liberals are going to hit retirees, seniors, investors etc., basically anyone with money and income.

So, just assume that if they can tax it and take away your money sooner then they will do it.

To Sheane Wallace

A 1% increase will not cost 3 billion in interest because most of Ontario’s debt does not mature for 15, 20 years etc.

This is where the 500 million dollar amount in extra interest amount comes from a 1% point increase in interest rates. Probably 50 billion or less matures and is new borrowing.

#89 DON on 09.12.15 at 12:07 am

#63 Smoking Man on 09.11.15 at 9:44 pm

The moment a writer knows hes a writer .

The hot chic on stage singing, bouncing , and all your thinking about is.

The freek on the dance floor, dancing by him self. Wondering who he has murdered

***********************
LOL – thanks for the laugh. Don’t turn your back on guy!

#90 45north on 09.12.15 at 12:11 am

bigtown: All week both CTV and CBC were hammering away at Harper and the foreign service for inadequate response to the Syrian implosion. Most media in Canada is framing the Liberals and the NDP as a more humane and caring vote

In 1980 our parish brought over a family from Cambodia. It was a major effort and required time and money. I mean time and money from individual people. People that chose to give.

The government should be helping groups who chose to give but it shouldn’t be doing it by itself. There has to be real people to help.

#91 Austin Powders on 09.12.15 at 1:00 am

“This is called “tightening of monetary policy,” in case your boyfriend happens to ask.-Garth”

Garth,

I wonder if this will be Goldmember “toight like a toiga”…or just plain tight

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HlbyOEyI02M

#92 Tony on 09.12.15 at 1:25 am

Re: #21 Ken Nash on 09.11.15 at 7:34 pm

I’ve looked at what the Teachers Pension Plan is quote invested in. Good advice would be to hedge the positions held in the plan. Most look like losing propositions in future years. I wish I could believe interest rates are headed higher but I don’t and can only see a bloodbath for the Teachers Pension in years to come.

#93 Millmech on 09.12.15 at 1:47 am

#77
Good plan been running around bugling like crazy,no big ones yet,good luck!

#94 Adam on 09.12.15 at 1:57 am

My characterization of the Liberals as deficit-embracers is based on Mr. Trudeau’s pledge to run many years of deficits, if elected. — Garth

What is inherently bad about deficits? I’m sure you understand that government budgets aren’t like family budgets… A balanced budget means nothing is Canadians are of of work or infrastructure is crumbling.

Not even a lib voter, but your doom and gloom about the left with zero historical data to back it up its getting a little sad. ‘just wait and see what happens to the dollar with the other guys’. Boogeyman talk. You sound like Jim Prentice.

Thanks for the blog though! Your financial insight is invaluable.

#95 Mike T. on 09.12.15 at 2:47 am

2 things

3, I guess

1) Blue Jays

2) I still remember when three in three were calling the September rate hike, lots of time between now and December to push it off into 2016, I mean, it’s already been like 5 years of fake outs with the rate hike, seriously what is likely to happen here

3) the growing gap between your 1% and the 99% is exactly why we are heading to a New World Order

when criminal bankers are exposed people will be offered a bailout

bingo bango NWO implemented

it’s a trick and you will fall for it

4) Blue Jays

#96 Freedom First Always on 09.12.15 at 3:50 am

#83 For those about to flop…

I am an honest man. A woman knows the rules I have right off the bat. Also, if I run into any of them, they are always happy to see me. I treat people well, and never lied, cheated or conned any woman in my life. And they all know it. Freedom is not merely physical. I need an uncluttered mind. I have loved women, as I have loved my male friends and relatives, but like I said before, if I was a woman, my handle would still be the same. I am a simple man.

#97 earhtboundmisfit on 09.12.15 at 6:08 am

Hmmm. A trained seal. Poilievre doppelganger? In some traditions, a harbinger of bad luck. We can hope!

#98 juno on 09.12.15 at 6:18 am

It doesn’t matter if rates go up or down

If it stays at this rate, Housing prices are capped here and has very little upside

If it goes down, we’ll thats another story, because .5 % vs .25% is 100 % increase. By the banks calculator they can lend twice as much

If if goes up be .5 to 1 percent. That means the bank can led half as much. Basically at this rate there is no stability

#99 Brian on 09.12.15 at 6:48 am

As Garth did blather “we-love-deficits Libs gain power”

Hmm…LIBS handed over a budget SURPLUS which Harpo and his minions not only squandered, they turned the surplus that the LIBS crafted into the biggest deficit in Canadian history.

Hard to believe Ol’ Garth still kneels submissively before Harpo given the past.

Secretly Sub?

As stated, Trudeau has declared his government would run multi-year deficits. Try to keep up. — Garth

#100 Sheane Wallace on 09.12.15 at 8:16 am

#88 Jane Goodhall

Bond interest is paid periodically, not on maturity, the face value is paid at maturity:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_bond
A government bond is a bond issued by a national government, generally with a promise to pay periodic interest payments and to repay the face value on the maturity date.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_government_debt

Ontario government debt

he Ontario government debt is the amount of money the Government of Ontario borrowed from the general public, institutional investors and from public-sector bodies. As of September 30, 2013 the Ontario government’s total debt stood at CDN$288.10 billion.[3] The interest on the debt was CDN$10.3 billion for the 2012-2013 Ontario budget at an effective interest rate of 4%.[4] It represented 8.4% of the total budgetary expenses and is the fastest-rising cost for the Ontario government.[5] The Debt-to-GDP ratio in 2013 was 37.4%, the highest in Ontario’s history.[6]

#101 Sheane Wallace on 09.12.15 at 8:23 am

#88 Jane Goodhall

On another hand if you count only rolled over debt and new debt 500 millions additional payments due to 1 % rate increase might be OK for the first year (assuming 50 billion in rolled over and new debt?)

But in long term it is 3 billions as we are not paying the debt, only rolling it over. And it grows…

#102 TurnerNation on 09.12.15 at 8:41 am

As mentioned: A Dollarstore Nation. Aka Harperstores.

They have telegraphed…a single wage for all: $15/hr. Ask US auto workers.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/dollarama-dollar-stores-calgary-economy-second-quarter-results-1.3223918

“The slower Alberta economy means people who usually shop at discount dollar stores like Dollarama for cheap batteries, glow sticks and helium balloons are now adding groceries and household goods to their carts.”

#103 Chris on 09.12.15 at 8:49 am

It is scary that one third of the population are even thinking about voting NDP. Taxes will go up in due course. No need to speed it up.

#104 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.12.15 at 8:54 am

@#12 Kommy Kim
“Under Mulroney the debt increased by 67% in 10 years.
Under Chretien the debt increased by 1.8% in 10 years.
Under Paul Martin the debt DEcreased by 4.7% in 2 years.
Under Harper the debt increased by 13% in 8 years”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Total agreement. The “Progressive” conservative govt’s name is almost as ridiculous as their claims of fiscal responsibility.

@#21 Ken Nash
“Please tell me I’m wrong! Ontario teachers make up 22% of Canada’s most affluent people? It can’t be true….”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
But! Whenever they go on strike for more wages and benefits…..”its about the kids”. When is their first “pro-D” vacation day anyway? Sept 26?

@#63 Smoking Man

Subconscious rearing its ugly head again Smokey? Or are you the lone dancer on the floor?

#105 Catalyst on 09.12.15 at 9:06 am

I always here that – if you raise taxes the rich will leave. It’s total b/s and not proven statement, just a made up scare tactic by our red friends south of the border.

To really tax the ‘rich’ (which most people describe by income but I look at as wealth) you need to raise consumption taxes. There shouldn’t be an income tax in Canada – let people who save benefit from that and those who spend can carry the tax burden for a while.

#106 Just sayin on 09.12.15 at 9:16 am

Freedom First must think that all the women he runs into want to marry him. I’ll bet that most of them; when they get to know his narcissistic personality, would prefer to let him know “Freedom First, Buddy!”

#107 Daisy Mae on 09.12.15 at 9:32 am

#16: “Even if the NDP or Liberals took all of the $ from the 1% and dispersed it to the 99%…”

**********************

Maybe the government can leave the 1% alone, and bring back Paul Martin….

#108 Llewelyn on 09.12.15 at 9:35 am

While I was no fan of most Conservative government I must be fair and acknowledge that the much maligned Mulroney government actually managed to create an operational surplus of $30+ billion during his time in office.

However the increased cost of carrying in the $190 billion in debt added by the Liberals in the 1970’s resulted in substantial deficits. If you factor out the cost of carrying additional debt incurred by the Liberals the Mulroney boys ran a pretty tight ship.

Harper Conservatives on the other hand added $150 billion in debt since 2009 but low interest rates mitigated debt servicing costs. If interest rates were equivalent to those imposed in the 1980’s the debt incurred by Canada since 2009 would have generated average annual deficits well in excess of $60 billion per year.

Even with interest rates at historical lows it will still cost the Government of Canada over $30 billion to service total debt in 2015.

#109 Daisy Mae on 09.12.15 at 9:39 am

#22: “In my mind, many people are using the current election grandstanding to blame the Harper government for their lack of savings and high debt….”

******************

Well, actually, it WAS Harper who introduced the 40-year mortgage amortization. And after four ‘adjustments’ for which they take ‘credit’ — it’s back where it should be, namely 25 years. So yes, we CAN blame the feds. People are stupid, as well, for allowing themselves to get sucked in.

#110 4 AM Sunrise on 09.12.15 at 9:41 am

About that Derek Foster thing…

What bothers me about him is that, if I recall correctly, the gist of his first book was “if you diligently put away $200 a week in a diversified ‘lazy’ portfolio, you, too, can retire early just like me!” That brought out muckrakers saying, “not in Canada you can’t, even if you live a minimalist life.” Options trading is not “lazy” investing. His sales pitch falsely led people to believe that you can build a large nest egg with little capital on Garth-like rates of return…and all that on a non-Garth timeline.

There are more honest early-retirement authors out there who attribute their success to, for example, a very good job right out of university and a keen interest in swing trading the markets.

Disclosure: I would not be where I am today if not for a five-figure insurance settlement invested in one of them “balanced” funds (because I didn’t know any better at the time). I had crappy jobs like Derek Foster, too, but I squirreled away WAY more than $200 a week.

#111 Nora Lenderby on 09.12.15 at 9:45 am

#61 Waterloo Resident on 09.11.15 at 9:33 pm
The washing machine in my house went on the ‘Fritz’ again today. Called the repair guy but he cannot come over to fix it until AFTER the weekend.
So I went down to my local laundromat…

After years of not being a customer of a laundromat, are you surprised that the business is in disarray?

Your conclusion that people cannot afford to use the service because they have mortgages doesn’t seem likely. People still wash their clothes (and I don’t think they’re beating them on the rocks!)

Other people have washing machines and dryers, just like you. They (the machines) are, on the whole, very reliable. Almost every machine made in the last few decades is probably still in service.

FWIW, in my small, poor village the laundromat is also struggling. Partly management, partly market decline.

I sympathize about $2 more for your meal at IKEA. Perhaps their market can stand the increase – so you could find a cheaper diner. If you don’t buy anything else in IKEA, no loss. If you like the ambience, cleanliness, cheery decor and opportunity to buy plastic housewares, pack a lunch. They even have microwave ovens to heat up your baby food :-)

Things change, we have to adapt.

#112 David on 09.12.15 at 9:52 am

Deficits are not our biggest concern right now. We’re still facing a lack of aggregate demand and should be taking advantage of historically low rates to increase it.

The IMF reports Canada’s debt is nowhere near crisis levels.
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2015/sdn1510.pdf

So endless deficits? Obviously not, but running a few more to help kick-start the economy is a low-risk proposition. Of course if you’re content to write off Canada’s existing underutilized capacity then by all means keep fetishizing balanced budgets.

#113 Stickler on 09.12.15 at 10:01 am

A lot of talk about the hate for increased taxes…but very little talk about the need to improve services, while reducing the cost of government. What a shame.

Keep the Cons in and you will see the same story repeat. Cuts to services that many people actually need.

…And neglecting health care…why is this not talked about? This is a top priority for most Canadians.

#114 Nora Lenderby on 09.12.15 at 10:04 am

#97 earhtboundmisfit on 09.12.15 at 6:08 am
Hmmm. A trained seal. Poilievre doppelganger? In some traditions, a harbinger of bad luck. We can hope!

Q. What’s the difference between a seal and a sea lion?
A. An electron.

Sorry. Old chemist’s joke.

#115 Marco on 09.12.15 at 10:06 am

#109, Daisy Mae

“People are stupid, as well, for allowing themselves to get sucked in.”

Yep.

The conservatives thank all of you for saving our economy, as it started sliding into correction territory in 2008, alongside our big brother to the South.

Cheers.

#116 Daisy Mae on 09.12.15 at 10:08 am

#52: “…because they balanced the budget by stealing funds from the EI fund – to the tune of a billion…..”

****************

Just imagine? I wondered at the time just how stupid they thought the electorate was….

#117 Ralph Cramdown on 09.12.15 at 10:10 am

Thought of the day:

The combined deficits (or surpluses) of the federal government, provincial governments, corporate sector and households, plus net foreign investment…. have to net out to zero.

If one sector (like, say the federal government) spends seven years climbing out of a huge deficit back to zero, some other sectors (maybe households and the provincial governments?) must be going the other way.

How, exactly, are households and provincial governments to fix their debt-laden balance sheets if the federal government runs balanced budgets? By selling off our country’s assets to the countries currently running huge trade surpluses?

I’m open to suggestions.

#118 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.12.15 at 10:10 am

What’s the big deal with balancing the Federal budget?
Just load off more to the Provinces, Bingo!

#119 Daisy Mae on 09.12.15 at 10:13 am

“My characterization of the Liberals as deficit-embracers is based on Mr. Trudeau’s pledge to run many years of deficits, if elected. — Garth”

*****************

On infrastructure….job creation…

#120 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.12.15 at 10:13 am

Let me just say that I’m glad that Mr. Harper has only a small, under equipped army.

#121 Daisy Mae on 09.12.15 at 10:25 am

A ‘redo’

#85: “…If they really wanted to help small businesses…they could try to help out the owner’s of small businesses struggling to make them work.”

********************

What ARE you talking about?

#122 BigM on 09.12.15 at 10:25 am

Jeremy Corbyn just got elected as leader of the Labour Party in the UK.

Oh my, the Trotsky Marxists are still really alive from the 1970’s.

Better watch out.

#123 Sammy Hoo on 09.12.15 at 10:33 am

Lets keep this thing in perspective…..more people have been killed by the RCMP in Canada over the past year than Syrian refugees have been gored by Hungarian police. Lets not forget the dangers of a sea-change in civilization as we know it. Syrians are predominately Muslim…with no interest in being good little Canadians…they share none of our values and their leaders bash them every Friday to kill the Jews and burn the west. The Muslim invasion of Europe will inevitably end in flames and blood…much like every Muslim country has experienced historically under it’s murderous reign. Like it or not…politically correct or not….those are facts…not dreamy liberal wishy washy fantasy about lambs lieing down with lions.

#124 Daisy Mae on 09.12.15 at 10:33 am

#112: “So endless deficits? Obviously not, but running a few more to help kick-start the economy is a low-risk proposition.”

********************

I agree. The economy needs a kick-start and that can only be achieved with temporary deficits.

#125 TurnerNation on 09.12.15 at 10:37 am

“You can pry my TFSA out of my cold dead hands.”

Typical. Either vote for their ‘NWO’ candidate or get hard lefties who’ll further remove your means of production (saving accounts – we no longer have a manufacturing economy).

“They’ll stone you just like they said they would.”.
(He was on to something.)

#126 Daisy Mae on 09.12.15 at 10:37 am

#115: “The conservatives thank all of you for saving our economy, as it started sliding into correction territory in 2008, alongside our big brother to the South.”

******************

…and here we are today. In worse shape than we ever were. Thanks to the ‘cons’.

#127 Omg the original on 09.12.15 at 10:52 am

29 John – Calgary pawn shops busy, folks heading back EAST
———–

That’s odd, out here in Victoria our real estate board is saying those who lose their jobs in Calgary are coming to Victoria and buying $800k houses.

#128 For those about to flop... on 09.12.15 at 11:22 am

Freedom First # all your posts.
I know you are set in your ways and you do what’s good for yourself,but you make it sound like spending time with a woman is a chore.
I know it doesn’t always work out as my brother has been divorced twice ,but you can’t always blame the other person for the failure to connect.
There are plenty of gals on this blog who could take you to task better than me ,but I view my wife and any female as my equal and not as a second class citizen .

#129 Republic_of_Western_Canada on 09.12.15 at 11:23 am

#61 Waterloo Resident on 09.11.15 at 9:33 pm

The washing machine in my house went on the ‘Fritz’ again today. Called the repair guy but he cannot come over to fix it until AFTER the weekend.

Ever think about taking the back plate off the appliance TO FIX IT YOURSELF?

As modern machines go, those are pretty simple. All you’ll probably need to do is replace a couple wear parts such as belt or bearing or switch. Get the model number of the appliance, and the parts involved, and get on the internet to find a replacement. And learn how to use a DVM.

Then you can learn how to do the brakes on your car, too.

And shame one person in your neighborhood to not be fat.

The world will be a better place.

#130 Setting the Record Straight on 09.12.15 at 11:26 am

@82
“What is happening is Syria is a little concerning…unarmed people fleeing due to war. Shouldn’t all efforts be put into ensuring that the bad people are stopped by the international community. This is ass backwards! I guess that’s why we have the term “Less We Forget”.”
$$$$$
Unfortunately, we have met the bad people and they is us.

ISIS Is reported to have been financed by Saudis and the Gulf states, our allies. Turkey, our fellow NATO member allowed militants to move into Syria and Iraq. Turkey then said it would mob ISIS but spends the majority of its effort bombing Kurds who are fighting ISIS. As an aside have you looked at the size of the Turkish armed forces? Sitting right on the borders. And yet we have Canadian fighter jets conducting missions.

But let’s face reality. The western elites have destroyed the economies ofLibya, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan. We created the waves of refugees which will lower standards of living in Europe, create cultural conflict and result in draconian restrictions on personal freedoms.
Invade the world, invite the world.

The State always benefits from a good crisis.

#131 Setting the Record Straight on 09.12.15 at 11:29 am

@84
“To say somebody can fix this mess without running deficit is a lie.

Enough political correctness, tell us the truth!”

$$$$$$
To say somebody can fix this mess by running a deficit is a lie.

Enough political correctness, tell us the truth.

There fixed it for you

#132 Panhead on 09.12.15 at 11:45 am

#77 Prairieboy43 on 09.11.15 at 10:54 pm
Fall for me is the best time of year. Fishing for Salmon on West Coast, then Hunting season. Myself and some buds are heading up Northern AB for our annual Moose Hunt.
———————————————————-
With the price of meat, maybe, just maybe, hunting will actually pay for itself this year. Moose numbers are low and getting lower it seems (in BC anyways). I think most of us just go for a good time, and some meat is just a bonus … best of luck …

#133 Victor V on 09.12.15 at 11:51 am

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/drilling-company-phx-cuts-half-of-work-force-500-jobs-lost/article26341436/

Calgary-based drilling company PHX Energy Services Corp. has laid off nearly 50 per cent of its work force, putting more than 500 people out of work.

The company, which provides drilling technology and services to oil and gas companies in Canada, the United States, Albania and Russia, says most of the job cuts affected people living in Alberta.

PHX said in a statement that the layoffs were necessary due to “current market challenges and uncertainty with respect to future oil commodity prices and drilling activity.”

The job cuts, announced Thursday, came despite company-wide salary reductions earlier this year of between 5 and 20 per cent.

The cuts follow an Alberta government report that more than 12,700 people have lost their jobs in the province in group layoffs as of Sept. 4.

#134 Cici on 09.12.15 at 11:54 am

Although I feel horribly about what is happening to the Syrian people and I understand their plight, I actually support the Harper government so far in its dealing of this affair, because I think that fast-tracking mass immigration is not the right response, and for the following reasons:

1. Most countries can’t afford it, especially European countries, most of which are already grappling with high unemployment and rising inflation.

2. Even rich countries like Canada are in a slowdown. We can barely afford healthcare for our own people, our retirement age keeps getting pushed up, and the CPP that we pay into probably won’t even be sufficient to cover the needs of GenX or the Millenials, but meanwhile, they’ll keep making us pay more into it. Bring in a mass immigration that will be given free public housing and be able to work for $2 an hour while the rest of us toil on UE but still have to pay obscene rents and mortgages, and there you have a very big social problem that could potentiailly bankrupt our country, especially once things get better in the country of origin and the temporary residants return to their homeland with Canadian $, but continue to take advantage of government benefits.

3. The better response (for us and for the fleeing Syrians) would be to “correct” the situation in Syria so that the people would not have to flee. As far as I know, the Syrian government is reported to responsible for the majority of civilian casualties, yet the Syrian war is considered a “proxy” war due to foreign involvement. So just who is this “foreign involvement,” and who are they supporting, and why?

4. The terrorism risks associated with fast-tracking immigration are very real due to the plausibility of insufficient checks and balances. Heck, appartently even the Syrian father who accused Canada for his childrens’ deaths during his own escape attempt hadn’t actually applied for Canadian asylum. His own family says he was looking to reach Germany in a quest for new teeth (http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x34oysd), and an Iraqi couple who were on the boat claim he was the captain of this people-smuggling operation (http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/iraqi-couple-allege-alan-kurdi-s-father-was-captain-of-boat-that-capsized-1.2559016). Who knows where the truth lies; however, I certainly can’t trust a father who blames Canada for a tragedy on the basis of a refused application that was never actually submitted.

#135 common sense on 09.12.15 at 12:02 pm

Anyone notice Brazil’s bonds are now graded JUNK status?

Emerging markets in big trouble with falling currency as well…

And China is not slowing down?

Yet in this global market we are not somehow affected?

Please.

#136 pwn3d on 09.12.15 at 12:09 pm

#62 Linda on 09.11.15 at 9:43 pm
blah blah blah
———————
This is a prime example of why I hate politics and people like this. Martin raided EI, CPP and cut transfer payments by 40%. But because he’s a Liberal idiots on the left who don’t really know what they’re talking about use him as an example of what they want. Meanwhile Harper or Harris are Satan. Why? Harris did the same thing as Martin, only he annoyed the teachers unions. If you’re not a teacher you’re a fool for buying into this. Harper, in order to keep a minority brought in huge stimulus spending demanded by the left. So he did what you wanted and now you’re pointing at his deficits. Transfers have gone nothing but up.

Now you fools who argued that Harper was wrong for running deficits, even though that’s exactly what you wanted, have to eat sh!t because your Wynne/JT team are proposing the exact same thing, more deficits, which is doing wonders in Ontario btw.

And Mulcair is unelectable because he’s lying every time he opens his mouth. You cannot not raise income taxes, not run a deficit, and wildly increase spending. Yet this is exactly what he is proposing. And the activists running for the NDP are a scary group of people. You do not want these people running a country.

What does that leave? A tired politician who should have stepped down and let a fresh face run.

#137 OttawaMike on 09.12.15 at 12:10 pm

#133 Cici on 09.12.15 at 11:54 am

Same old argument every time we admit refugees. Vietnamese boat people being one of the best examples. Probably the most successful cohort of refugees in our country’s history.

But yeah, we should have a plan and sufficient support for these people as the Somali influx didn’t go as well as the Vietnamese one. Most cost benefit analysis studies have shown that refugee’s present a net cost of zero to our society as their taxes and contributions tend to cancel the upfront costs within a decade.

That glorious statesman Putin warned that the Arab Spring and regime changes in the Mid East would create more problems than solutions and sadly he was right.

#138 Great Canadian Bubble Co. on 09.12.15 at 12:23 pm

Garth, what is to stop the Feds from making quarter point increase or two and kicking the can down the road for another decade? Surely with the amount of worldwide debt there isn’t much incentive to make more than a symbolic gesture. I guess I just want to hear the argument against this. Or do you think this is a strong possibility?

#139 Tim on 09.12.15 at 12:25 pm

What benefit has the avg family received under Harpo..?

#140 SWL1976 on 09.12.15 at 12:36 pm

#130 Setting the Record Straight

ISIS Is reported to have been financed by Saudis and the Gulf states, our allies.

But let’s face reality. The western elites have destroyed the economies of Libya, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan. We created the waves of refugees which will lower standards of living in Europe, create cultural conflict and result in draconian restrictions on personal freedoms.
Invade the world, invite the world.

The State always benefits from a good crisis.

Thanks for ‘setting the record straight’

The war on terror is a perpetual war with a fictitious enemy. Terror is a dynamic enemy that can easily fit the bill of any current agenda.

War is terror, and anyone who thinks fighting a war on terror will solve anything is simply being a pawn in the game ochestrated by the real crazies.

#141 Julia on 09.12.15 at 12:44 pm

#129 Republic_of_western_Canada
Ever think about taking the back plate off the appliance TO FIX IT YOURSELF?

As modern machines go, those are pretty simple. All you’ll probably need to do is replace a couple wear parts such as belt or bearing or switch. Get the model number of the appliance, and the parts involved, and get on the internet to find a replacement. And learn how to use a DVM.

********************
We tried that with our 6 year old washer.
We could not do it or find the parts and neither could the repairman. Says they don’t make them to be repaired anymore. Keep the cost down.

Went to the laundromat while trying to fix and waiting for the repairman. Actually found a brand new Laundromat.

#142 JimH on 09.12.15 at 12:54 pm

Since 1949, Canada has spent most of the time running Current Account Deficits. The few spurts into surplus territory seem to be inevitably followed by plunges into deep deficits.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/current-account

(Current Account to GDP isn’t much better)

The USA for the most part, has been running said deficits ever since the Revolutionary War.

#143 economy plan for Canada on 09.12.15 at 1:01 pm

Canada has natural resources, energy, know-how, low population, close proximity to one of the largest consumer economy.

It is a no-bainer what Canadian economic policy should be for Canada for this century.

Canada should be the most competitive, fully automated, human labor-less China of manufacturing.

The most efficient and productive economy is the one that does not rely on human labor.

Eliminating human labor initially from manufacturing would create the most profitable manufacturing sector in the world.

All government “job creation” funding should be directed to manufacturing automation, to build up the best quality, most efficient manufacturing in he world.

The profit from this human labor-free manufacturing industry could provide Canadian citizens with royalty revenue in exchange of wages from lost jobs.

Due to the low population, Canada is perfectly positioned to this transition.

Countries which used their high population to provide low labor cost manufacturing, would lose their competitive edge in turning their manufacturing economies human labor-less, due to their large population.

Canadians, who would no longer need to work for living could spend their time on things that they love to do the most, which would potentially enable them to do the most out of their life.

The labor of love activities would create the foundation of the “blue-print economy”.

The “blue-print economy” provides the blue-prints for automated manufacturing facilities.

People creating “blue-prints” (or “apps to manufacture”) would get higher royalty from the sales of the products, based on their manufactured blue-print app”. All blue-print app royalty income is tax free, just like the personal labor-less manufacturing royalty.

The TFSA contribution level is equal to the labor-less manufacturing royalty, to provide the most effective way for Canadians to tap into and profit from the global financial markets.

#144 BS on 09.12.15 at 1:28 pm

I always here that – if you raise taxes the rich will leave. It’s total b/s and not proven statement, just a made up scare tactic by our red friends south of the border.

It happened here in BC when the NDP was voted in provincially for two terms in the 90s. They increased income taxes and many professionals including medical doctors left for the US and other provinces. Business investment also dried up and many businesses relocated. Those that became unemployed also left to find work where business was welcome. Tax revenue actually declined while the NDP was in power even with higher taxes. We had a doctor shortage in BC until the BC Liberals were voted in and lowered income taxes back to normal levels. After they lowered income taxes and corporate taxes the net tax revenue in BC increased.

Something NDPers don’t get is when you raise taxes high enough tax revenue decreases. By lowering taxes and creating economic activity you increase tax revenue which pays for the social programs. The NDP and Liberals can only run deficits and strangle the economy with their anti business taxation policy for so long and at some point social programs will have to be cut.

#145 Shawn on 09.12.15 at 1:35 pm

Success Is As Success Does?

#141 JimH on 09.12.15 at 12:54 pm

Since 1949, Canada has spent most of the time running Current Account Deficits. The few spurts into surplus territory seem to be inevitably followed by plunges into deep deficits.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/current-account

(Current Account to GDP isn’t much better)

The USA for the most part, has been running said deficits ever since the Revolutionary War.

***************************************
Given the enormous success of the USA and Canada in raising the living standards of their increasing populations since the start of the current account deficits mentioned one would be hard pressed not to consider that maybe, just maybe, these deficits have been a smart and successful thing?

#146 Shawn on 09.12.15 at 1:39 pm

Deficits

Do people even realise that when a company builds a factory that it is counted as capital spending and does not create or add to a loss or deficit in the year built since the thing is counted as an asset but that for government accounting spending on a building or road adds to the deficit?

People rail against deficits but often have no concept of the above feature of government accounting.

Deficits are neither inherently good or bad. It depends on the situation.

#147 Shawn on 09.12.15 at 1:41 pm

Assets of government

Do people stop to realise that the collective governments of Canada have assets that FAR exceed their debts?

#148 Doug in London on 09.12.15 at 1:55 pm

@4Am Sunrise;
Making a good salary, keeping your expenses low, and choosing good investments are all contributing factors to being able to retire early. While I made a decent salary in my working years, I never made 5 figures but had the luck of making Toronto wages but living in a smaller city, Timmins, with lower costs of living. I also managed money sensibly, yet never felt like I was depriving myself. My biggest mistake was for years investing in those lousy mutual funds with the high management costs. In more recent times I’ve gotten with the program choosing better investments. That’s where Derek Foster got it right from the start, buying good companies that pay increasing dividends over time. I’m willing to bet he’s taken advantage of when stocks go on sale, as has happened many times over the years. I notice that when that happens, a lot of people (many right here on this blog) bitch and complain, rather than take the opportunity to buy more stocks, EFTs, REITs, or whatever else is on sale at the time. No wonder some people believe it’s impossible to save enough to retire early.

#149 Linda on 09.12.15 at 2:01 pm

So Trudeau has pledged to run ‘many years’ of deficits. At least he isn’t lying about it & as Daisy Mae points out, the plan is to build infrastructure or repair infrastructure. Have to say, I wonder how we ever managed to build the stuff in the first place, because the cost of repair or replacement is staggering.

One thing I am wondering about though, is that most if not all of the comments including my own seem to indicate that there are only 3 parties to vote for. Out of curiosity, why isn’t the Green Party considered as a viable alternative? Is the party platform any more unrealistic than what the other parties are presenting?

#150 Doug in London on 09.12.15 at 2:05 pm

@Economy plan for Canada, post #142:
Makes sense to me. Over the last 100 years, productivity has kept increasing so it takes less and less labour to provide the goods and services we want or need. During that time the work week kept shortening from 60 hours, to 48 hours, 44 hours, and to 40 hours where it is now and has been stubbornly stuck for at least 50 years.

What is needed now is a shorter work week, job sharing, or a system where you work for a period like 20 years then are out. Because such needed changes haven’t been made, all kinds of hair brained schemes have been tried to prime the pump, as the saying goes, to stimulate aggregate demand. All it has led to is problems like governments running up deficits trying to create jobs, or low interest rates which cause bubbles that collapse and cause more problems.

#151 Marco on 09.12.15 at 2:31 pm

@Cici

“yet the Syrian war is considered a “proxy” war due to foreign involvement. So just who is this “foreign involvement,” and who are they supporting, and why?

Proxy war between Shiites (majority) Iran and Saudi Arabia Sunni (majority).
Russia and Iran are backing Shittes – Assad against ISIL who are backed by the Saudis and the West to oust Assad.
Canada and others are bombing ISIS (Sunnis) who in turn are killing mostly Shiites and even Sunnis that don’t believe in their Jihaad.

What a Quagmire.

Cheers.

#152 JimH on 09.12.15 at 2:35 pm

#146 #145 #144 Shawn

Agreed. Also that there appears to be an inverse relationship between Private Sector Profits and Public Sector Debt. Also that someone’s debt is someone else’s asset.

You are quite correct to say that talk of Government Debt should include reference to Government assets, and that debt is not in and of itself by necessity a bad thing. (I have estimated that the total assets of the US Government are running close to $300 trillion)

This does not mean that Debt incurred through wasteful, inefficient spending is in any way positive.

#153 saskatoon on 09.12.15 at 2:51 pm

#145 Shawn

when a company builds a new factory, there is no inherent violence involved. there is no force initiated.

government deficits = stolen money via initiation of force for current and future citizens.

somehow, you manage to compare these two things.

there is MUCH more government today, and much more taxation.

hence, there is much more violence in society.

this violence increases with time, proportionally to government expansion.

a world of increased violence never functions to truly increase living standards.

your ‘infrastructure’ does not need to come from violence.

it is sad and telling that you continue to measure “living standards” against the quality/quantity of “public” roads, rather than ostensible individual freedom.

#154 Daisy Mae on 09.12.15 at 2:54 pm

#136: “What does that leave? A tired politician who should have stepped down and let a fresh face run.”

***********************

Exactly. I believe Garth awhile ago mentioned Harper should consider retiring. We don’t LIKE Harper. We don’t TRUST Harper. He has an attitude problem — arrogant as hell. We do need a fresh face.

#155 Herf on 09.12.15 at 2:59 pm

#121 Daisy Mae

“What ARE you talking about?”

I was quoting #170 Small Business’ comment from the previous day, so ask him/her. I gather s/he is expressing his/her frustration and doubts concerning specific statements/promises made by Mulcair and Trudeau (the Mini-PET) to “help” small businesses, while at the same time s/he wishes they would “help small businesses to “work”. A bit nonsensical of a comment, but what I sense is #170’s frustration and doubts about ambiguous promises from Mulcair/Trudeau to “help”, while s/he struggles to run his/her small business in the real economic world.

I agree with #170’s closing comment that starting a small business (or any business) usually requires a huge sacrifice. Hence, why I linked to the video interview of Trudeau in which he expressed his uninformed and naive opinions about small business owners, which I thought are insulting to small business owners.

#156 Shawn on 09.12.15 at 3:02 pm

Saskatoon

Feel free to use your real name in posting your views. I trust you are brave enough to do so and have nothing to hide?

#157 Marco on 09.12.15 at 3:11 pm

@BS

“The NDP and Liberals can only run deficits and strangle the economy with their anti business taxation policy for so long and at some point social programs will have to be cut.”

The NDP say they will not need to run a deficit for their promised economic plan. Hard to believe.

For starters how about getting us out of Iraq and Syria, a war that cannot be won through military intervention, and putting Canada back to where it once was – a proud peacekeeping nation.
Helping directly broker peace in Northern Ireland’s sectarian violence.
This would save quite a bit of coin for any social program cost shortfalls, if as you say there would be any.

Cheers.

#158 kommykim on 09.12.15 at 3:33 pm

RE:#136 pwn3d on 09.12.15 at 12:09 pm
What does that leave? A tired politician who should have stepped down and let a fresh face run.

So you admit that it IS Harper’s fault!

#159 OttawaMike on 09.12.15 at 3:34 pm

Who said govts. are not efficient at supporting the auto industry:

http://autofocus.kinja.com/how-the-canadian-government-spent-100-000-on-a-plain-6-1729696637

#160 kommykim on 09.12.15 at 3:38 pm

RE: #144 BS on 09.12.15 at 1:28 pm
We had a doctor shortage in BC until the BC Liberals were voted in and lowered income taxes back to normal levels

We HAVE a doctor shortage in BC and it’s way worse than when the NDP was in power. Try again.

#161 Panhead on 09.12.15 at 3:41 pm

#149 Linda on 09.12.15 at 2:01 pm

One thing I am wondering about though, is that most if not all of the comments including my own seem to indicate that there are only 3 parties to vote for.

Just returned from a day trip to Victoria and there are lot’s of Green signs over there. Stronghold I guess, beautiful day and beautiful city …

#162 maxx on 09.12.15 at 3:45 pm

#61 Waterloo Resident on 09.11.15 at 9:33 pm

“I wonder what the lag time will be between a few million service workers losing their job and the fall of real estate prices? How long can a laid off worker keep his house when he cannot pay the mortgage anymore?”

‘Till the drywall pudding runs out- num, num!

#163 kommykim on 09.12.15 at 3:47 pm

RE #153 saskatoon on 09.12.15 at 2:51 pm
when a company builds a new factory, there is no inherent violence involved. there is no force initiated.

What about blasting and excavators? Construction workers hitting nails with hammers? Plenty of force and “violence” there. The horror!

#164 maxx on 09.12.15 at 3:57 pm

#79 Marco on 09.11.15 at 11:07 pm

“Trudeau is the only candidate that is basing his economic platform on today’s reality.”

Today’s reality is that I want him to keep his cashmere mitts off of TFSAs.

#165 doberdog on 09.12.15 at 4:04 pm

The Fed will be one-and-done this year. If you think this is removing stimulus, you are dreaming. Even with a .25 interest hike, the Fed is still highly accommodative. After this hike, the Fed will be on the sidelines due to a possible China correction and a long list of other world factors. Canada can stay the course with our interest rates for a long time yet, I predict until 2017. Garth will have you believe that rates are going to spike. Hardly, there will be VERY modest tightening in the US and Canada has a long wait until oil recovers. Low rates for a long time to come.
As for the NDP and Liberals, people get want they ask for… The good news is it will take a generation for the NDP ever to get power again, look at Ontario and the NDP, it’s taken 20 years for them to even be considered.

#166 Setting the Record Straight on 09.12.15 at 4:29 pm

@146
“Deficits

Do people even realise that when a company builds a factory that it is counted as capital spending and does not create or add to a loss or deficit in the year built since the thing is counted as an asset but that for government accounting spending on a building or road adds to the deficit?

People rail against deficits but often have no concept of the above feature of government accounting.

Deficits are neither inherently good or bad. It depends on the situation.”

&&&&&&

Just because a physical item is long lived doesn’t make it an asset.

A company is subject to the dictates of the market. If you purchase machinery to make widgets and nobody wants widgets your capital asset is sold for scrap and the stockholders and bond holders suffer for their error in judgement.

When goats excuse me governments pay for something their is often no market test as to whether it is an asset.
If you build a road that issued for free, you have no idea whether the road was an investment or just outdoor sculpture. Then there are obvious failures like Mirabel.
If the govt sets up a crown corp to provide electricity and then pays for wind power that you have to pay other jurisdictions to take (Ont hydro) or have them build nuke plants that have to be shut down, you don’t have a capital asset, at least not one worth what the taxpayers are on the hook for.

Nope they are just deficits.

#167 Setting the Record Straight on 09.12.15 at 4:33 pm

@#154 Daisy Mae on 09.12.15 at 2:54 pm
#136: “What does that leave? A tired politician who should have stepped down and let a fresh face run.”

***********************

Exactly. I believe Garth awhile ago mentioned Harper should consider retiring. We don’t LIKE Harper. We don’t TRUST Harper. He has an attitude problem — arrogant as hell. We do need a fresh face.

&&&&&&
You prefer Justin “somewhere some village is missing its Idiot” Trudeau?

#168 Danger Dan on 09.12.15 at 4:40 pm

The wealthy won’t leave, they’ll just hire KPMG.

#169 T.J.BONES on 09.12.15 at 4:41 pm

#57 Smokingman on 09:11:15—- 21:05 ?

#170 Setting the Record Straight on 09.12.15 at 5:04 pm

https://www.lewrockwell.com/1970/01/murray-n-rothbard/the-republicans-favorite-economist/

Written in 1971, this article is a deconstruction of the myth of Milton Friedman as a believer and supporter of the free market.

For the many here who are statists it outlines the history of the Chicago school and its evolution and why they are your friends not your enemies.

In looking at Fischer/Friedman on monetary aggregates and monetary policy, we have intimations of the current train wreck at the Federal reserve.

At the very least an understanding of this article make clarify the differences that exist between us on this Blog.
I hope that you will read it.

#171 Nora Lenderby on 09.12.15 at 5:27 pm

#134 Cici on 09.12.15 at 11:54 am
Although I feel horribly about what is happening to the Syrian people and I understand their plight, I actually..

I don’t buy it; you actually don’t feel that bad. Perhaps a frisson of fear. Your rationalizations allow you to say to yourself, “I don’t have to do anything” and still let you feel that you are a good person.

During the 1930’s when Jews were being hounded out of Germany, pretty well all economies in the world were in worse shape than they are now. In my opinion, most of the countries made the wrong choice, to not allow Jewish refugees in. “None is too many…” etc.

The situation in Syria is so broken, I don’t think it can be “corrected”. All that can be done is to try to help the people leaving, whether in refugee camps or elsewhere. Then much patience, diplomacy, and gradual change, perhaps ultimately peace, although perhaps not in decades.

fwiw, and read around to some less mainstream views, for example, Mr Gwnne Dyer is worthwhile:

http://gwynnedyer.com/2015/europes-refugee-crisis-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly/

#172 jess on 09.12.15 at 6:05 pm

https://www.fdic.gov/news/news/speeches/spsep0215.html

“Chart 9 shows that the number of banks on the “problem list” fell to 228 during the second quarter. This is the smallest number of problem banks since 2007, and it is about one-quarter of the 888 problem banks at the peak in early 2011.

Only one insured institution failed during the second quarter. This is the first time since 2007 that only one bank failed during a quarter.

Through the first half of 2015, there were 5 bank failures. This is down from 12 bank failures during the first half of 2014.

Chart 5 shows that the share of longer-term assets has been increasing for the industry as a whole since 2009. Over the same period, community banks have increased the share of longer-term assets at a faster pace than the rest of the industry.

On the liability side, the industry has not increased the share of longer-term funding at the same rate. This has left banks more vulnerable to interest-rate risk, and is a matter of ongoing supervisory attention.”

========

Hidden in Plain Sight: New York Just Another Island Haven …
http://www.icij.org/…/hidden-plain-sight-new-york-just-another-island-haven
Jul 3, 2014 – The property: a $1.575 million apartment in Manhattan’s Onyx Chelsea, a glass and metal tower …. “You have to prove the nexus between the corruption and the property itself,” he said. “Sometimes judges are skeptical: Why are we are going after some foreign guy who did something in a foreign country?

#173 Shawn on 09.12.15 at 6:21 pm

People Indeed Do Not Understand the Meaning of a Government Deficits

Setting the Record Straight on 09.12.15 at 4:29 pm
@146 quoted me and gave a response

Do people even realise that when a company builds a factory that it is counted as capital spending and does not create or add to a loss or deficit in the year built since the thing is counted as an asset but that for government accounting spending on a building or road adds to the deficit?

**************************************
Thank you for the response which nicely demonstrated a lack of understanding of accounting and government deficits and the definition of a capital asset.

(Under accounting rules applicable to corporations the value of a capital asset on its books generally reflects its cost, not its value. Government deficit accounting generally expenses everything and shows no value for any asset. Zero.)

Thank you for demonstrating a dogmatic “all government deficits are bad” attitude despite hundreds of years of history to the contrary.

As intelligent posters like Jim H above have indicated, deficits are not necessarily good or bad. It depends on the situation.

Most countries have found it beneficial to their citizens to run a deficit most years.

#174 Shawn on 09.12.15 at 6:27 pm

OMG I ran a deficit

Joe makes $100k per year pre-tax. He buys a house at a modest 3 times salary for $300k.

OMG he has just ran a deficit of 200% of pre-tax income just on the house purchase alone.

His after-tax income is maybe $75k and he spends at least $50 to live. Now he has spent $350 in one year which makes a deficit of $275k or 366% of take-home pay.

OMG?

#175 greg on 09.12.15 at 6:34 pm

A homeless Syrian family displaced because they were being bombed by US and Canada! The Syrians invited Russia for help NOT the US or Canada. Why? Because the US created ISIS. Research before you squake-sheeeple.

#176 Ret on 09.12.15 at 7:12 pm

If voting really let you have a say or make a difference, they wouldn’t let you do it.

#177 Harbour on 09.12.15 at 7:15 pm

#174 Shawn on 09.12.15 at 6:27 pm

His after-tax income is maybe $65k

#178 The Other Chris on 09.12.15 at 7:23 pm

That 254,000 number must exclude pension accruals. There are more than that number of people covered by OMERS alone with an accrued pension NPV >$1 million.

Accrued pension is not the same as investable assets. They are not millionaires or members of the 1%. — Garth

#179 jess on 09.12.15 at 7:41 pm

European Union investing $4 billion to speed the development of robotics
Robots could take half of German jobs…new wave of automation will hit white-collar workers hardest, according to Jeremy Bowles, a researcher at the Brussels-based Bruegel Institute.
Jason Overdorf, GlobalPost 11:10 a.m. EST January 13, 2015
http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2015/01/13/robots-take-german-jobs/21685339/

Machinery takes place of migrants in Maine blueberry fields
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published September 6, 2015 – 8:45pm
http://www.businessinsider.com/robots-being-developed-to-automate-farm-labor-2013-7
==============
House of Commons taking the auditor general to court?
F35’s
By PAUL McLEOD Ottawa Bureau

#180 jess on 09.12.15 at 7:42 pm

Laura Kane, The Canadian Press
http://www.570news.com/2015/09/11/canada-only-country-to-charge-refugees-interest-on-travel-loans-advocates/

#181 South.burnaby.gardener on 09.12.15 at 7:43 pm

Garth and blog dogs,
I will display my ignorance and ask what lead to the disappearance of purpose built rental stock. In the lower mainland, nothing seems to have been built since the mid 1960s. Is it as simple as the 1966 change of law to allow condos/strata properties ? Maybe I was oblivious, but I don’t recall any great rush in the late 1960s or 1970s to build condos. Was there a change in tax law? I am just wondering why this type of building and investment vehicle stopped being built.

#182 BS on 09.12.15 at 7:50 pm

We HAVE a doctor shortage in BC and it’s way worse than when the NDP was in power. Try again.

And increasing the doctors income tax rate will encourage more to stay? Like I said NDPers just don’t get it.

#183 BS on 09.12.15 at 7:55 pm

Just because a physical item is long lived doesn’t make it an asset.

Exactly. Google BC Fast Ferries. An NDP infrastructure project that flushed a billion down the toilet. Sold off for 3 cents on the dollar.

#184 Daisy Mae on 09.12.15 at 7:56 pm

#167: “You prefer Justin “somewhere some village is missing its Idiot” Trudeau?”

*****************

Did I mention Trudeau?

#185 Daisy Mae on 09.12.15 at 8:05 pm

CBC News: Party leaders are debating the possibility –pros and cons — of a coalition government forming.

#186 Daisy Mae on 09.12.15 at 8:06 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-leaders-coalition-1.3218868?cmp=rss&cid=news-digests-canada-and-world-morning

#187 voluptuousvanessa on 09.12.15 at 8:07 pm

The American economy has been up on heavy doses of viagra.qe and will go very limp on withdrawal of essential performance medication.

#188 Paul on 09.12.15 at 8:10 pm

Re181
It war rent control

#189 bb on 09.12.15 at 8:31 pm

Here’s a nice house in Unionville/Markham that’s within your budget.

http://www.realtor.ca/Residential/Single-Family/16120080/28-UPPER-DUKE-CRES-Markham-Ontario-L6G0C3-Unionville

#190 Paul on 09.12.15 at 8:38 pm

Was

#191 Marco on 09.12.15 at 8:43 pm

@Greg.

…”Because the US created ISIS. Research before you squake-sheeeple”

They didn’t exactly create ISIS (ISIL).
It’s a breakaway group of al-Quiada. Al-Quiada was supported by by the U.S. In Afghanistan against the Soviets.
Al-Quida ironically opposes ISIS now. The U.S. is now looking to see how they can exploit this division between the two groups.

http://news.yahoo.com/al-qaeda-leader-al-zawahiri-declares-war-isis-151231254–abc-news-topstories.html

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/03/us-isis-syria-iraq

Cheers.

#192 NoName on 09.12.15 at 8:53 pm

of topic but worth spending 5min

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0zySGE82HY

#193 kommykim on 09.12.15 at 9:09 pm

RE: #182 BS on 09.12.15 at 7:50 pm
We HAVE a doctor shortage in BC and it’s way worse than when the NDP was in power. Try again.
And increasing the doctors income tax rate will encourage more to stay? Like I said NDPers just don’t get it.

Doctors didn’t leave BC because of income taxes. They left because of billing caps.

#194 greg on 09.12.15 at 9:30 pm

yahoo news??? Way to dig deep! Epitome of sheeple.

#195 Smoking Man on 09.12.15 at 9:34 pm

Went to my nephews sons baptism today, ironically the same church I had been nearly been drowned about 56 years ago.

The closer I got to the alter, the tighter my chest became, for a moment I thought I was having a heart attack, poped three 80 mlg aspirin.

At the reception, as luck would have it. I engaged I in a serous conversation with a high school teacher..

He was 30 ish full of himself.. All he asks of his student’s, doesn’t care if the student is a door knob, just wants respect, and a descent effort. It will be rewarded with a passing grade.

So I asked him, what would you do with a student who aced every test, did not do his homework or hand it in on time, and had a bad attitude..did not respect you, thinks your an idiot.

He pondered my question for about a minute, said he would fail him.

I asked why, he couldn’t come up with a good reason, then told him my lifes story..explanied to him, you are a slave maker. Nothing more and nothing less.

I go full smoking man on the bastard, when the dust settled.

Hey wants to hook up on linkedin , I opened his eyes, he is now aware that he is a creativity killer, and a slave maker.

Saving humanity one life at a time.

Dr Smoking Man

#196 lee on 09.12.15 at 9:44 pm

178,

Wrong Garth. They are millionaires. If they live to even 80 most will have drawn over one million from the pension plan without factoring in inflation adjustments. They can’t access the money like a real millionaire but the end result is the same. A million working for you in retirement.

Actually not. A pension, unless commuted, is held by an administrator that the beneficiary has zero control over, and may be relinquished upon death. It is not calculated as a portion of personal net worth. — Garth

#197 Country Girl on 09.12.15 at 10:33 pm

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tfsas-who-really-benefits-from-new-contribution-limits-1.3066478

Maxing out tfsa contributions has more to do with age than income. Perhaps this helps explain the divide in comments to your previous post.

“In fact, if you look at those who are expected to have mature savings accounts — 55 and over — they make up 70 per cent of those who hit the cap.

Of those under 55 and making less than $60,000 (presumably those “saving money to buy their first home, or to start their first business”) about 270,000 fully loaded up their TFSAs.”

“Fully one in five people over the age of 75 maximized their TFSAs — only about 1 per cent of 18 to 24 year-olds have done the same.”

#198 45north on 09.12.15 at 10:40 pm

Telling people their lives will be improved if the affluent and corporations are dinged is a lie. Plain and simple. You could screw over every one of the 254,000 rich people in Canada and average families would see no benefit. Besides, you can be sure a bunch will leave.

rich defined as having investible assets of over $1 million (Canadian)

I know three men who could leave Canada. Easily. They would simply get on a plane ( to the US ). They may not be exactly rich but they earn a good living. Their loss would be our loss.

Cici: Although I feel horribly about what is happening to the Syrian people and I understand their plight, I actually support the Harper government so far in its dealing of this affair, because I think that fast-tracking mass immigration is not the right response,

there but for the grace of God go I.

Concern for the Syrian refugees must extend to Syria itself. One cannot pretend to be concerned with one and not the other.

OttawaMike: Same old argument every time we admit refugees. Vietnamese boat people being one of the best examples. Probably the most successful cohort of refugees in our country’s history.

We had a party for the families that were sponsoring boat people. A man from Cambodia explained: “in Cambodia, husband first, wife second, children next and then dog. In Canada just opposite”

#199 Bottoms_Up on 09.12.15 at 10:50 pm

the beneficiary has zero control over, and may be relinquished upon death.
————————————–
Yes Garth, a family member paid into cpp and a hydro pension plan his whole life. At 65, had a “million dollar” pension in front of him. Died at 66 (had to even pay back ‘over-payments to the pension plan from his estate). So it is not an asset that can be passed on to the next generation, and therefore does not count as being a millionaire.

#200 Lorne on 09.12.15 at 11:38 pm

#144 BS on 09.12.15 at 1:28 pm
I always here that – if you raise taxes the rich will leave. It’s total b/s and not proven statement, just a made up scare tactic by our red friends south of the border.
…..

It happened here in BC when the NDP was voted in provincially for two terms in the 90s. They increased income taxes and many professionals including medical doctors left for the US and other provinces. Business investment also dried up and many businesses relocated. Those that became unemployed also left to find work where business was welcome. Tax revenue actually declined while the NDP was in power even with higher taxes. We had a doctor shortage in BC until the BC Liberals were voted in and lowered income taxes back to normal levels. After they lowered income taxes and corporate taxes the net tax revenue in BC increased.

Something NDPers don’t get is when you raise taxes high enough tax revenue decreases. By lowering taxes and creating economic activity you increase tax revenue which pays for the social programs. The NDP and Liberals can only run deficits and strangle the economy with their anti business taxation policy for so long and at some point social programs will have to be cut.
………
Nice rhetoric….stats please????

#201 Lorne on 09.12.15 at 11:40 pm

#149 Linda
One thing I am wondering about though, is that most if not all of the comments including my own seem to indicate that there are only 3 parties to vote for. Out of curiosity, why isn’t the Green Party considered as a viable alternative? Is the party platform any more unrealistic than what the other parties are presenting?
……
According to Garth, absolutely…according to others, certainly not!

#202 Lorne on 09.12.15 at 11:49 pm

#183 BS on 09.12.15 at 7:55 pm
Just because a physical item is long lived doesn’t make it an asset.

Exactly. Google BC Fast Ferries. An NDP infrastructure project that flushed a billion down the toilet. Sold off for 3 cents on the dollar.
…….
Geez BS, you truly are full of it! Fast ferries were overpowered, similar to what has happened with the “Coastal” model built by the Liberals (which sit at the dock most of the winter as the older ferries are cheaper to run). The fast ferries were sold off very cheaply, to friends of the government (the Washington’s) who made a handsome profit reselling them. Gotta keep feeding your friends….this, the Liberals have mastered!

#203 taxaka on 09.13.15 at 12:21 am

#105 Catalyst on 09.12.15 at 9:06 am
I always here that – if you raise taxes the rich will leave. It’s total b/s and not proven statement, just a made up scare tactic by our red friends south of the border.

To really tax the ‘rich’ (which most people describe by income but I look at as wealth) you need to raise consumption taxes. There shouldn’t be an income tax in Canada – let people who save benefit from that and those who spend can carry the tax burden for a while.”

Raising consumption taxes has almost driven Japan back to the verge of recession…..people spend less, GDP goes down….

#204 Retired Boomer - WI on 09.13.15 at 12:29 am

#144 Gonkman (yesterday 9/11)

LOVED your timeline & your recognition of WHAT is really important.

WELL Done!!

#205 Retired Boomer - WI on 09.13.15 at 12:39 am

Garth-

Put me in the no interest rate increase until Dec, or whenever hell freezes over.

Yelin has seen her shadow, and is now hiding in the closet in her office. Check back on next Ground Hog Day….

#206 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.13.15 at 12:42 am

Talking about balancing the budget.
It’s easy.
My wife asks me to balance our household budget, I cut back on maintenance of our bung.
But of course sooner or later it’s gonna bite us in our ass.
Kinda reminds me reading in the The Economists awhile ago
that Canada needs urgent infrastructure upgrades to the tune of 98 billions, pronto.
Where is the budget for that ?
Voodo economics

#207 Mf on 09.13.15 at 1:05 am

#137 OttawaMike on 09.12.15 at 12:10 pm

Vietnamese and every other refugee group were not known for world wide terror and extremism. Syria is a hotbed of religious fundamentalism right now. It’s not the “same old story” at all actually.

Ask Europeans what the “studies” show about massive immigration from the Mid East, and what it means.

If we are to let in some refugees from the area, I really hope there is some form of screening process in place.

Mf

#208 kommykim on 09.13.15 at 1:16 am

RE: #181 South.burnaby.gardener on 09.12.15 at 7:43 pm
I am just wondering why this type of building and investment vehicle stopped being built.

As has been gone over here ad nauseam, the math just doesn’t add up. It just costs too much to build and rents are too low. Add in the new pro-renter rules, where rent increases are limited, tenants win most disputes, and landlords have a hard time evicting bad tenants, why would anyone build residential rentals?

#209 Lobster Man on 09.13.15 at 1:52 am

#181 South.burnaby.gardener on 09.12.15 at 7:43 pm

In 1971 Canada introduced the capital gains tax, with your principal residence being one of the few and remaining exceptions. From then on, any newly-built rental stocks would have to factor that in, not just on the diminished capital gains upon disposition, but also on the theory that only a few would rent, given the special appeals of gains-free owner-occupied dwellings.

Sorry, there are no links, but that was what I was told by my old landlord ages ago.

#210 BS on 09.13.15 at 4:06 am

Doctors didn’t leave BC because of income taxes. They left because of billing caps.

Bottom line many doctors will leave if they can make more money somewhere else. Income taxes are factored in there. Same as other highly valued professionals. The 1% are mobile and in demand in other countries.

#211 Andrew on 09.13.15 at 8:36 am

The US is also in a mess – doubling its massive debt in 8 years. No way they’ll raise rates – they just pretend they have the option to.

#212 NEVER GIVE UP on 09.13.15 at 8:37 am

A possible solution to the refugee problem.

I think the UN should gather a coalition of heavily armed nations and carve out a 30 mile x 30 mile piece of land on the coast of Syria that is somewhat defensible.

Then they should put a Fantastic Fence around it. Defend it with massive artillery and air support.
Declare it a tax free work zone, then let in any refugee who want to start a new life.

Use Israeli style security at borders to keep all weapons out.
It could be a huge positive out of the negative.
This could be replicated anywhere there are mass migrations happening.

Use a benevolent dictatorship headed by the experts in that area… Singapore.

Make a Government of strictly outsiders only for 10 years and then start adding only 10% locals per 5 year period in a graduated handover of power. (unlike shoving democracy into Iraq when they aren’t ready ).

Consider handing back the enclave if the host nation gets its act together.

It will be cheaper and safer than having to subsidize and accommodate millions in Europe.

Just an idea for debate.

#213 maxx on 09.13.15 at 8:59 am

#141 Julia on 09.12.15 at 12:44 pm

“We tried that with our 6 year old washer.
We could not do it or find the parts and neither could the repairman. Says they don’t make them to be repaired anymore. Keep the cost down.”

I hear you. As we all know, manufacturers keep their costs down to be competitive and this very often has negative repercussions to the “consumer’s” health, safety, wallet or all of the above. So, costs to the consumer in one way or other(s), go up.
Wherever possible, we buy second-hand at 10% or less (with no tax) of retail prices.
Think of the number of times you’ve had to take a brand new item back to a store for a refund/replacement because it was damaged/defective. And got free snotty attitude to boot.
Retail, in this zirp environment, is such a colossal waste of precious cash.
We live better, healthier and far more economically now than when interest rates were “normal”. We carefully crafted this way of deploying hard-earned money over the years as rates dropped and we’re saving big-time. Just a few recent examples: Panasonic DVD player, in the box with remote, wires and manual: $5.00, no tax; Whirlpool dehumidifier in perfect nick, $8.00, no tax; paper shredder, $4.00, no tax…..and the list goes on.
Your money, your choice.

#214 mobile 1% on 09.13.15 at 9:00 am

#210 BS on 09.13.15 at 4:06 am

Doctors didn’t leave BC because of income taxes. They left because of billing caps.

Bottom line many doctors will leave if they can make more money somewhere else. Income taxes are factored in there. Same as other highly valued professionals. The 1% are mobile and in demand in other countries.

====

How many doctors would you like to have?
You can have them over here in a week, from Syrian refugees in Europe.

#215 saskatoon on 09.13.15 at 9:03 am

#149 Linda

because green party leader (elizabeth may) has openly called for a forced china-esque two child policy law in canada.

one of MANY reasons.

#216 OttawaMike on 09.13.15 at 9:17 am

#207 Mf on 09.13.15 at 1:05 am

I could argue that the Vietnamese people were subjected to over a decade of guerrilla style warfare, carpet bombing by the US and an extensive domestic organized crime network.

Germans and Japanese were once accused of the same and we never saw that transpire either.
If we go way back into the 19th century, Catholics were thought of as a risk to our nation.

But yes, our security organizations should definitely vet all refugee candidates. That is why we have those agencies.

#217 Mf on 09.13.15 at 9:20 am

#181 South.burnaby.gardener on 09.12.15 at 7:43 pm

Just to add to the great info the last posters said, my grandfather was part owner of a large rental building that was built in the 1950’s in the GTA. He has since passed, but the building was sold in 2013. Couple things: rents only paid off the mortgage in 1997, something like three decades after the building was built. There were always issues with elevators or something else and it required large sums of capital each time. And lastly and most importantly, when the building sold the capital gains taxes were in the millions and much much higher than anyone expected. Enough that even my parents decided totally against investing in further real estate (well that plus they believe this market is bloated beyond belief and will not touch it with a ten foot pole).

Mf

#218 Mf on 09.13.15 at 9:23 am

^ meant to say 4 decades before the rental building mortgage was done.

Mf

#219 OttawaMike on 09.13.15 at 9:25 am

#198 45north on 09.12.15 at 10:40 pm

I was a high school student in those days but remember the churches getting heavily involved in settling the boat people. I wonder if that was part of the secret to their successful integration?

#220 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.13.15 at 9:46 am

http://bc.ctvnews.ca/video?clipId=703153

Well, thats one way to “get rid” of a North Van condo….

#221 The Other Chris on 09.13.15 at 9:54 am

@Garth’s comment for 196

The way you’re defining net worth is unusual.

Evaluating one’s personal net worth is the same as preparing a corporate balance sheet. You would certainly include the NPV of future cash flows on your balance sheet. (And yes, when calculating NPV you factor in the mortality/longevity risk.) There’s no reason why pension cash flows are any different.

Putting it another way, more concretely: there clearly is a difference in net worth between two people, age 64, each of whom has $50k in the bank, if one of them will start earning a $90k pension next year and the other will earn nothing.

#222 Daisy Mae on 09.13.15 at 10:01 am

#200: “They (NDP) increased income taxes and many professionals including medical doctors left for the US and other provinces. Business investment also dried up and many businesses relocated….”

***************

I remember. The NDP on ANY level results is disaster.

#223 Daisy Mae on 09.13.15 at 10:05 am

#198: “I actually support the Harper government so far in its dealing of this affair, because I think that fast-tracking mass immigration is not the right response…”

*********************

It’s just common sense.

#224 Nora Lenderby on 09.13.15 at 10:20 am

#207 Mf on 09.13.15 at 1:05 am
#137 OttawaMike on 09.12.15 at 12:10 pm
Vietnamese and every other refugee group were not known for world wide terror and extremism. Syria is a hotbed of religious fundamentalism right now. It’s not the “same old story” at all actually.

Actually? I think you may be too young or too old to remember. I recall many “Reds Under the bed” rumours of 5th columnists spead among the many people who objected to bringing in Vietnamese refugees. Not to mention the “fact” that they were uneducated and diseased! Vietnam was apparently a “hotbed” of Marxism-Leninism…

The difference is that mainstream politicians didn’t give such a voice to dog-in-the-manger attitudes.

Anyway, who did kill D’Arcy McGee?

#225 Paul on 09.13.15 at 10:25 am

Check out this N.D.P.er
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/katherine-swampy-facebook-1.3225904

#226 Nora Lenderby on 09.13.15 at 10:38 am

#199 Bottoms_Up on 09.12.15 at 10:50 pm
“the beneficiary has zero control over, and may be relinquished upon death.”
————————————–
Yes Garth, a family member paid into cpp and a hydro pension plan his whole life. At 65, had a “million dollar” pension in front of him. Died at 66 (had to even pay back ‘over-payments to the pension plan from his estate). So it is not an asset that can be passed on to the next generation, and therefore does not count as being a millionaire.

Sorry to hear this. If married, his widow will probably be getting a decent pension though. Not a glamourous inheritance, but it will probably be there when she gets to 90.

#227 maxx on 09.13.15 at 10:52 am

#197 Country Girl on 09.12.15 at 10:33 pm

“http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tfsas-who-really-benefits-from-new-contribution-limits-1.3066478

Maxing out tfsa contributions has more to do with age than income. Perhaps this helps explain the divide in comments to your previous post.

“In fact, if you look at those who are expected to have mature savings accounts — 55 and over — they make up 70 per cent of those who hit the cap.

Of those under 55 and making less than $60,000 (presumably those “saving money to buy their first home, or to start their first business”) about 270,000 fully loaded up their TFSAs.”

“Fully one in five people over the age of 75 maximized their TFSAs — only about 1 per cent of 18 to 24 year-olds have done the same.””

Lord save us from the drooling twits of TFSA envy.
Yes, older people do have a higher rate of maximizing their TFSA contributions. However, ad nauseam, the younger you are, THE MORE YEARS YOU HAVE TO CONTRIBUTE and the contribution room is NOT LOST!!
It appears that some Canadian youth couldn’t be any more disabled by bitterness. Incapable of thinking past their noses whilst making a point of looking over the fence to see how much others have and then assuming that it was handed to them on a silver platter.
Vote the wrong way and you’ll soon be able to use an “app” to track what you’re losing for a long time to come. Don’t forget to figger lost interest as well as all of the lost opportunities at retirement.
Even at pathetic 5- year GIC rates of ~2% over 40 years, the difference is over 200K. Imagine when rates go up, or investing these funds as Garth recommends.
Voting against TFSA status quo will cost you.
Big time.

#228 Steerage Bilge on 09.13.15 at 10:59 am

Debt, debt, debt, debt, and more debt….

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11858952/BIS-fears-emerging-market-maelstrom-as-Fed-tightens.html

#229 kommykim on 09.13.15 at 11:01 am

RE: #210 BS on 09.13.15 at 4:06 am
Doctors didn’t leave BC because of income taxes. They left because of billing caps.
Bottom line many doctors will leave if they can make more money somewhere else. Income taxes are factored in there.

True, but that wasn’t my point. My point was that the doctors didn’t leave because of high taxes under the NDP. They “left” because of a billing cap.
So it wasn’t because the NDP were big bad taxation tyrants, it was because they were big bad spending restraint tyrants as far as the doctors were concerned.

#230 kommykim on 09.13.15 at 11:13 am

RE: #222 Daisy Mae on 09.13.15 at 10:01 am
I remember. The NDP on ANY level results is disaster.

And the CONs are not? Give your head a shake!

#231 Steve French on 09.13.15 at 11:26 am

I’ve been banned from the GF comment section !!!

I will not accept vids of gratuitous animal cruelty. — Garth

#232 slicing the shrinking pie on 09.13.15 at 11:32 am

The most disappointing part of this election and the discussions about the economic future of Canada is the complete lack of vision for how to grow the shrinking pie.

The whole story is all about how the shrinking pie is getting sliced, who gets what piece.

There is not a single platform to think bold, without the restrains of the old cliches, there is no visionary for the coming decades.

Like a whole country is in an intellectual coma, without a single sign of innovative thinking about economy, society, politics as a whole system.

#233 Nora Lenderby on 09.13.15 at 11:32 am

#212 NEVER GIVE UP on 09.13.15 at 8:37 am
Just an idea for debate.

A Modest Proposal? :-)

#234 Marco on 09.13.15 at 11:34 am

@Greg

Yahoo News gets their news from leading news agencies, duh.

Is this one better for you then:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/jun/10/how-isis-crippled-al-qaida

Cheers.

#235 Mulcair a CON wolf in ndp clothing on 09.13.15 at 11:40 am

kommykim on 09.13.15 at 11:13 am
RE: #222 Daisy Mae on 09.13.15 at 10:01 am
I remember. The NDP on ANY level results is disaster.

And the CONs are not? Give your head a shake!
____________________________________

Give your head a shake if you can’t see Mulcair is an evil CON wolf in NDP clothing.

#236 Mulcair a CON wolf in ndp clothing on 09.13.15 at 11:44 am

Beware of CON wolf’s on here posting they are voting NDP. A vote for NDP is a conservative wolf vote. CON wolf Mulcair has no chance of winning. I am as orange as they come and will not vote NDP. If Jack Layton was still here I would scream from the roof tops to vote NDP. If jack were here you can bet the propaganda to vote NDP would not be happening like it is now.

#237 TurnerNation on 09.13.15 at 11:50 am

#206 now you know we too are to become a 2nd World country.

Looks how much elites charge us for 100-200 year old technologies: cars, electricity, gas. This stuff should be almost free by now.

Meanwhile their wars and causes have taken trillions from us for technology we cannot imagine. The whole of earth and space blanked/weaponized. Endless money of ours for war/efforts. What of the billions we sent to Haiti. Now by bank is shilling for refugee funds. I don’t give to bilionaires and bilderbergers who steal from me.

#238 pete on 09.13.15 at 11:50 am

greg on 09.12.15 at 6:34 pm
A homeless Syrian family displaced because they were being bombed by US and Canada! The Syrians invited Russia for help NOT the US or Canada. Why? Because the US created ISIS. Research before you squake-sheeeple.

____________________________________

Most people hate reality and the true. Most will hate the truth you post.

#239 For those about to flop... on 09.13.15 at 11:52 am

The wife and I went to Canadian Tire yesterday. They are having a big sale and I had been waiting for three months to pounce on some bargains.
On my list was some tools for work ,my wife wanted some cleaning supplies and a new shower head and today is my MIL birthday so picked up a nice planter box as she likes to garden.(chocolates and flowers are a waste of money).
Any way when we got the bill I wanted to see how much money we saved by being patient and shopping methodically .
The result was$98.15 spent and $93 .45 saved.
Sure they still get a lot of money but I feel like I did good and with more belt tightening seemingly on the way it seems like I might have to more shopping like this 3/4 times a year.
Happy Birthday Mother in law !

#240 TurnerNation on 09.13.15 at 11:57 am

My online banking says: “Canadians can now donate to help with efforts in response to the Refugee Crisis Appeal”

This is rich. Elite billionaires asking for my pennies. Sure I’ll give, if they agree to lower my predatory bank fee levels, or insist their candidate leave 10k TFSA room.

All levels of governments just announced tens or hundreds of millions of our money to fund their part of their assault & cleanup on Syria.

The veil is slowly lifting… social mediums help. I started waking up on Sept 12th all those years ago.Watch the smartest people in the room. Not Instagram.
Something ain’t right – don’t pass the smell test

#241 Syrian solution on 09.13.15 at 11:57 am

#212 NEVER GIVE UP

Better plan than what the UN, EU and all the other refugee agencies combined have proposed so far.

#242 Slim on 09.13.15 at 12:01 pm

I like this point quoted from the linked article.

“Generally, there is always competition for jobs. That affects immigrants as well as locals. But there is no scientific evidence that suggests locals will become unemployed because immigration exists. Quite the contrary, unemployment would be much higher without immigration. The assumption behind the theory that immigration equates to increased unemployment among locals is that there are a fixed number of jobs, and that is a false assumption. More importantly, when it comes to qualified immigrants, that displacement does not take place.”

http://www.dw.com/en/immigration-expert-no-immigration-more-unemployment/a-18702312

#243 TurnerNation on 09.13.15 at 12:10 pm

So…everyone ask themselves. For a top electric car in 2015 why is it costing over $100,000 and requiring billions of our tax dollars in Government subsidies (cough…TSLA) when decades ago GM had a great electric car which was squished:

http://www.ev1.org/

And even 100 years ago! The joke’s on us folks, open up your wallet.

http://jalopnik.com/5870808/how-a-new-york-taxi-company-killed-the-electric-car-in-1900

“In the early 20th century, electric cars were actually mainstream. In 1900, there were more electric automobiles on New York City streets than cars powered by gasoline. True, there were only 4,192 cars sold in the United States that year, but 1,575 of them were electric. The advantages were obvious — electrics were quiet, clean, and easy to use. Battery power looked like the ideal choice for personal urban transportation (For what it’s worth, both electrics and gas-engined cars were both beaten in sales by steam-powered cars — 1,681 of them, to be precise — but who the hell really thinks steam still makes sense?).”

#244 Retired Boomer - WI on 09.13.15 at 12:45 pm

No country is ever going to reduce “inequality” by taking from those that “have” to give to those who “have not.”

This has been tried for years, and simply ends up with the “have nots” (most of them) spending it all frivolously, and complaining louder the “have not.”

Try something really noel: tell them “NO!”

NO geezer raises, no increases in benefits until we get the debt paid down by 50%. That will take forever… I’m in the United Snakes, CanaDUH isn’t far behind. If this doesn’t work goose taxes for DEBT REDUCTION, no increases in gov spending until debt levels are down.

WE used to have higher margins here. We could still go there but only if spending is restrained. Just look at the defense bloat 57% now and that’s, what’s the word? Oh yes, Bullshit!

#245 family beagle on 09.13.15 at 12:45 pm

Government and voting for it perpetuates the myth that you must pay for the privilege of being born. There is plenty of rural land in Canada where you can start a community, attract service providers, and tell government to go f themselves. If you study the evolution of cities, you will learn how government was developed to answer a human need within extended social groups. I recommend Alvin Toffler, Desmond Morris, Orwell, Lincoln Barnett to start.

Politicians cater (read ‘whore’) to cities because a politician’s goal is not government, rather, acquiring power in whatever social paradigm presents itself. Stewardship of a nation is quite different and no current political leader indicates the wherewithall to steward a nation, only pandering to selective groups within it. Thus, cities have become useful and controllable consumption camps with incentivized democracy. The political plan clearly evidenced through policy is to continue to herd masses into the cities. Attract them with neon, shoppes, and boutiques. Shelter them in pre-form mdf, osb and concrete pens furnished in worthless flotsam. Pay for it with voodoo algorhythms from investment vehicle withdrawal velocities. Now we observe as citizens’ meaningless lives spent in hamster wheel fulfillment culminate in the satiated gurgles of impending death… a mere decade on the horizon.

Subjectively, good riddance, ye civilized parasites. There will be celebration and much tossing of flowers when the last boomer drives their mall cart off the plank. Today’s exploitative and core political boomer culture will be known throughout history as the generation who did nothing for no one and sucked the system dry shopping until they dropped. (Likewise, barely a footnote in the asphalt annals shall be dedicated to their unemotive progeny, the selfies.) The real issue facing political leaders today is whether they can use fossilized ideologies to beguile youth into believing that government is good? At least until current entitlements are paid.

What’s a tfsa?

“The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those who cannot read and write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn.” Toffler.

#246 SWL1976 on 09.13.15 at 12:51 pm

238 pete

Most people hate reality and the true. Most will hate the truth you post.

The further a society drifts from the truth, the more it will hate those who speak it – George Orwell

#243 TurnerNation

So…everyone ask themselves. For a top electric car in 2015 why is it costing over $100,000 and requiring billions of our tax dollars in Government subsidies (cough…TSLA) when decades ago GM had a great electric car which was squished:

There’s a great documentry on this subject called ‘Who Killed the Electric Car’ for those who care to understand more on the subject

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vRnUY6V2Knk

A blatant slap in the face to the public by the big corps who we coincidentally we had to bail out

#247 Jane Goodhall on 09.13.15 at 12:54 pm

You missed my important point about 15-20 year maturities.

Most of Ontario’s and other provincial government debt is already fixed today at the lower interest rate of say 2.5% to 3.25% at most.

If interest rates do rise 1% point in a 1 year or so but actually they dropped over the last 5 years by 1.0% to 1.5% point, so called fixed income analysts and economists wrong again, it will impact only new borrowing which is about 10 billion or less a year from current deficits and matured bonds that need to be put in the current bond market yield, interest rate.

Ontario’s whole $289 billion debt does not get set at new interest rates higher or lower every year. It is not like a 1 year mortgage.

Most of Ontario’s debt and rate is locked in for decades at fixed interest rates.

This is why 500 million a year in extra interest with a 1% point increase in bond yields, rates is a good estimate.

#248 Steve French on 09.13.15 at 12:56 pm

I’ve been banned from the GF comment section !!!

I will not accept vids of gratuitous animal cruelty. — Garth

——–

Alright, no horrifying link this time, but that brutal BC Grizzly Bear hunt can be googled.

What is wrong with our society, that certain men feel the need to take out their anxieties on proud noble creatures of nature like Canadian grizzly bears.

These type of insecure hunter-losers probably have truck balls too.

Grizzly trophy hunts should be banned.

And we should be ashamed for allowing this…atrocity to occur in Canada.

We are no better than those Chinese businessmen slurping up endangered wildlife soup to supplement their flagging, pitiful sex drives.

Sir Garths- requesting a photo of a noble proud – and alive — Canadian grizzly , for tomorrow’s post.

A “real man” — someone like David Suzuki–or our own Mr. Turner– protects nature and supports its wildlife (and dogs too). He doesn’t destroy it for his own personal… pathetic kicks.

Signed

– An ashamed Canadian abroad.

Steve-O.

#249 BS on 09.13.15 at 1:00 pm

The fast ferries were sold off very cheaply, to friends of the government (the Washington’s) who made a handsome profit reselling them.

The fast ferries were sold at a public auction to the highest bidder. Anyone could have bid on them and bought them. The highest bid was 3 cents on the dollar because they were so poorly designed nobody wanted them. In the end they were never put into service again and used for scrap metal. Washington lost money even after paying $20 million for ferries that cost the tax payer $900 million. Just another NDP disaster with tax payer money.

In the end, the government went with an auction. Ritchie Bros., one of the biggest and most reputable firms in the world, advertised the vessels globally and handled the sale itself on March 24, 2003.

Bidding started at $10 million apiece and went downward from there. After a mere 20 minutes, all three ships sold for a combined price of just under $20 million.

http://www.canada.com/story.html?id=2c1d58b9-4b51-470e-8c5c-b120cfd2b6a7

#250 Bill on 09.13.15 at 1:20 pm

And Im prying for those GDam ferrys in increases everyday. $4000 a year I spend and I predicted this outcome from day one with my friend and Capt at Seaspan. Gov are $#%###%%%#!!!!!!!!

And Garth you are so pretty pos on a resumption of the stock market run?! Ive stated here its to dam soon.
My cash looks good still. Heres a piece from a manager that beats the averaged year after year.
“So, unless the Federal Reserve gives the market another massive dose of QE, it is unlikely that the S&P500 Index will climb to new highs over the coming months. If anything, given the extremely poor market breadth and recent spike in credit spreads, it is probable that the ongoing rally in the stock market will fail soon and at the very least, we will get a test of the recent low. Moreover, if the recent low does not hold, the bear market will gain momentum and we may witness an autumn plunge!
At this stage, nobody can guarantee whether the recent panic low will hold but we suspect that the stock market will slice through that level. In fact, unless the Federal Reserve unleashes QE4 soon, it is conceivable that the US stock market may give back almost all of its QE3 gains. Under this scenario, the S&P500 Index could decline over the following months and we may bottom out around the 1,300-1,450 level.”
I dont spend much time here because Im a busy camper.
I did warn months ago keep lots of cash for sweet bargains. We may even get a good energy bounce!

#251 BS on 09.13.15 at 1:48 pm

True, but that wasn’t my point. My point was that the doctors didn’t leave because of high taxes under the NDP. They “left” because of a billing cap.
So it wasn’t because the NDP were big bad taxation tyrants, it was because they were big bad spending restraint tyrants as far as the doctors were concerned.

The NDP tried to take from the rich and give to the poor. It didn’t work. The NDP cut doctors pay and gave huge raises to unskilled government union labour such as hospital janitorial staff. They also increased income taxes for everyone. The skilled labour such as doctors and RNs left the province but we had lots of people willing to be janitors. The net result was less tax revenue for government, higher government expenses (paid to unskilled union labour) and less of the people we need like doctors and RNs in the province. There is a reason the NDP have lost 4 consecutive elections since in BC.

#252 Bottoms_Up on 09.13.15 at 2:24 pm

#238 pete on 09.13.15 at 11:50 am
—————————————-
What’s happening in Syria is a result of the 2011 arab spring uprising by the people, and then the government squashing the protests and killing innocent people. Half the country has now been displaced. Around 11 million people. Canada and the USA had no part in that.

If you want the truth, just google “whats happening in syria” and read the bbc news article.

#253 Bottoms_Up on 09.13.15 at 2:27 pm

#237 TurnerNation on 09.13.15 at 11:50 am
———————————–
Banks are a trustworthy place to donate to humanitarian crises. They do not keep the donated money. They are doing a good thing by encouraging people to donate. If you ask they will tell you the money goes to red cross or similar outfit.

#254 Tony on 09.13.15 at 2:36 pm

Re: #250 Bill on 09.13.15 at 1:20 pm

I’m still waiting for the second shoe to drop from the ’87 lows. Maybe in the next few years we’ll see a retest of the ’87 lows.

#255 OXI in GREECE !! on 09.13.15 at 2:41 pm

Fed Increase? Maybe. But we are still headed for a depression.

#256 OXI in GREECE !! on 09.13.15 at 2:45 pm

#251 BS on 09.13.15 at 1:48 pm
True, but that wasn’t my point. My point was that the doctors didn’t leave because of high taxes under the NDP. They “left” because of a billing cap.
So it wasn’t because the NDP were big bad taxation tyrants, it was because they were big bad spending restraint tyrants as far as the doctors were concerned.

The NDP tried to take from the rich and give to the poor. It didn’t work. The NDP cut doctors pay and gave huge raises to unskilled government union labour such as hospital janitorial staff. They also increased income taxes for everyone. The skilled labour such as doctors and RNs left the province but we had lots of people willing to be janitors. The net result was less tax revenue for government, higher government expenses (paid to unskilled union labour) and less of the people we need like doctors and RNs in the province. There is a reason the NDP have lost 4 consecutive elections since in BC.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

So instead under the Fiberals we have whiny constantly complaining 50 year old biddies nurses who WILL NOT allow new graduates full time jobs – making $120,000 dollar a year who bitch about working conditions by day and drive home in their beemers to their big awesome houses and trips to Mexico twice a year by night……

Forgot that part I see…..

#257 OXI in GREECE !! on 09.13.15 at 2:57 pm

These type of insecure hunter-losers probably have truck balls too.

Grizzly trophy hunts should be banned.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

All hunting should be banned. Everything that people wish to eat can be farmed. Bears, cougars, deer, elk etc. Animals should only be shot with digital cameras….

#258 kommykim on 09.13.15 at 3:18 pm

RE: #251 BS on 09.13.15 at 1:48 pm
The NDP tried to take from the rich and give to the poor. It didn’t work

The BC Liberals have taken from everyone and given to the rich and corporations. I guess that’s the way you like it. Enjoy.

#259 Lorne on 09.13.15 at 9:31 pm

#249 BS….again!

This government had an option to fix the Fast Cats but instead elected to put the BC shipbuilding industry virtually out of business by outsourcing work that could have been done here. Further they shrink wrapped these ships to leave a monument and reminder that the NDP screwed up.

What they don’t tell you, is that the ferries could have been altered to conform to what was required.
What they also don’t tell you, and the Ferry Corp is dancing around, is that these new ferries appear to have as many problems as the Fast Cats. So I wonder if the Government is going to give these White Elephants away? I really don’t think that they know the difference between a Railway or a Ferry Fleet. Do you?

So you see by exempting the Ferry Corp from FOI we the public don’t get all the story. In fact this government, I allege, has deliberately manipulated laws and legislation to suit their own ends. And that is to cover up and hide anything detrimental to their looking good in the eyes of the public.

#260 Doug in London on 09.13.15 at 10:40 pm

@Bill, post #250:
What you said about the stock market is exactly why it’s still somewhat cheap these days. We’re you one of those bargain hunters who went on a frantic buying spree when the market was really on sale in late August, or were you waiting for “better’ bargains that never materialized?

#261 Spectacle on 09.13.15 at 11:49 pm

Just a Holla out to Nosty.

I’ve been very busy with my little 2 month old baby these last posts…but want to Thank You Nosty, for the postings, links, and comments!

Greatly appreciate the links, and reading other topics on those linked sites! Wow……

Regards,

#262 Bill on 09.14.15 at 11:57 am

#254 Tony on 09.13.15 at 2:36 pm

Yes time to be careful. Things are a bit weird out there.
Need the down trends to break and a confirmed Uppy in these…

#263 Bill on 09.14.15 at 12:22 pm

Gdam Gov. Just political grand standing.
http://www.cknw.com/money-talks/

#264 Nomad on 09.14.15 at 1:40 pm

Prices have fell in Montreal and Quebec City. In french from the newspaper “LesAffaires”:

http://www.lesaffaires.com/mes-finances/immobilier/immobilier-les-prix-en-baisse-a-montreal-et-quebec/581596

#265 IHCTD9 on 09.14.15 at 3:47 pm

#236 Mulcair a CON wolf in ndp clothing on 09.13.15 at 11:44 am
Beware of CON wolf’s on here posting they are voting NDP. A vote for NDP is a conservative wolf vote. CON wolf Mulcair has no chance of winning. I am as orange as they come and will not vote NDP. If Jack Layton was still here I would scream from the roof tops to vote NDP. If jack were here you can bet the propaganda to vote NDP would not be happening like it is now.
____________________________________________

LOL! I know you are a troll and all, but I somewhat agree! I asked my NDP voting wife just the other day who she expected to vote for. I noticed that JT actually appears to left of TM, so I had to see if she had been paying attention. She said NDP LOL!! I told her that TM is probably right of JT, and that JT was her man – but no it’s the never-ending destruction party for her.

“The best way for a government to create wealth is to leave the free market alone and get off the back of businessmen and businesswomen,”

— Tom Mulcair, to the Quebec National Assembly in 2001.

#266 Bill on 09.14.15 at 11:56 pm

#260 Doug in London on 09.13.15 at 10:40 pm
Yes still standing by and many high yielding stocks Im watch are lower. Theres no buyers yet. I will wait for a break of the down trend and will commit when there is a confirmed up. No markets are in confirmed uptrends and if and when it does happen… prior to that there is no rush to commit 1-2 million capital to it.
Many stocks are down 10-20 points and that my friend is money Ive made in a hell of a hurry.

#267 Bill on 09.15.15 at 12:02 am

Actually just looking at companies yielding 8% are down 30-50%. Now if I had sat on them they have to move 100% to reach highs of a 2 month ago!
We are in a deflationary environment and nothing wrong with a pile of cash. The ONLY thing I ng I own is one fund that I know the manager and hes pretty much all US side now. Its not down at all. I never bet against him as he would make me look like an idiot Lol