Wallowing

MUD modified

Kate Whyte, a 48-year-old princess and media hound from North Van made news last week claiming to be homeless, even though she has $1 million in cash. This happened about the time that little boy washed up dead on a beach and thousands of Syrian refugees, also homeless, were being waterbombed and beaten by countries that don’t want them. Kate made a fake ‘Homeless’ sign on a piece of cardboard so she could be photographed holding it. The gimmick worked. She was famous for a day or two.

No, this post is not about our egocentric, sad society losing its way, although there’s a strong case. Instead, let’s focus on what comes next.

By the way, Kate the princess and her husband sold their Van home (on which they made a huge, taxless capital gain) for $1.3 million, wanting to downsize. Then she found it was hard to buy in again for two hundred less, since the local market is suffering from too few listings and too many fools. Renting is beneath her, but being a media pimp apparently is not. Anyway, here she is:

KAREN modified

Now, the world is changing which suggests this may be peak house. Seeing what Kate  did (she’s not alone), the attention she received plus events like an uninhabitable east-end Toronto house selling for a million a few days ago, should make anyone wary about jumping into the real estate circus at this time. But you should also keep an eye on the single greatest factor which created bubble conditions in 604 and 416. That, of course, is cheap money.

Looks like we’ve hit the bottom in Canada, but will know for sure Wednesday morning. That’s when the central bank makes a key announcement which affects the chartered banks’ prime rate, lines of credits, HELOCs and variable-rate mortgages. Lots of people on this blog and elsewhere have argued the Bank of Canada will cut that rate for the third time in 2015, because the economy now blows. The collapse in commodity prices back to 1999 levels, taking oil with it, is having a dramatic effect.

For example, here’s what Bloomberg had to say this weekend about our vaunted oil sands industry:

The last place oil producers want to be when prices plummet to profit-demolishing lows is midstream on a billion-dollar project in one of the costliest parts of the planet to extract crude. Yet that’s exactly where half a dozen oil sands operators from Suncor Energy Inc. to Brion Energy Corp. find themselves with prices for Canadian oil now hovering around $30 a barrel. While all around them projects have been postponed or canceled, their investments were judged too far along when the oil game suddenly moved from offense to defense. These projects will add at least another 500,000 barrels a day — roughly a 25 percent increase from Alberta — to an oversupplied North American market by 2017.

So, if there ever was a time to pull out the stops and try to mitigate the coming damage, you’d think it would be now. Until you realize that might make things worse. This is exactly where the Bank of Canada sits. And why, the experts agree, rates are not doing down.

“We expect the Bank of Canada to remain on hold on Wednesday with the overnight rate unchanged at 0.5%,” says Scotiabank Economics. “85% of the Canadian economy is not accounted for by the direct and indirect effects of the energy sector despite the (wrong) global impression that Canada just produces a whole lot of tarry black stuff.

“The media and some politicians call this a recession, but it doesn’t fundamentally pass the smell test for such a call. In fact, if the pace of job growth so far this year holds up over the remaining four months then 2015 will post the fastest pace of job growth over the past three years and come in at about 170,000 jobs having been created. This. Is. Not. A. Recession. The risk is that the more we keep wrongly hearing the country is in recession, the more people might actually start to believe the nonsense and make it a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

Well. Strong words from a bank.

Even economic bear economist David Madani has changed his tune. “August’s employment gain of 12,000 was better than most had expected, thanks mainly to a hiring spree in the public sector. This is more evidence supporting our view that the economy likely returned to positive growth in the third quarter,” he says.

Plus look at his comments on the recent trade numbers: “The narrowing of the trade deficit in July indicates that the economy began the third quarter on a solid footing. This supports our view that, after suffering a mild recession in the first half of the year, the economy has returned to positive growth. Indeed, the risks to our forecast that third-quarter GDP growth will be 1.5% annualised now lie to the upside.” Madani also says no rate hike on Wednesday.

So these guys conclude the following: the energy sector’s in deep crap, but the rest of the economy is not. In fact, things are getting measurably better. If the central bank were to drop rates again it’d be a mistake. The dollar would wilt and household borrowing would plump, without an offsetting positive. Besides, money is too cheap now. That’s gotta change.

This is the conclusion the Fed has also reached. The era of monetary stimulus – using government money to buy bonds or subsidize consumers while pushing lending rates into the ditch – must end. If not, we’re sowing the seeds of a destructive round of inflation while bloating dangerous asset bubbles

So, our central bank will not move this week. The Fed will increase this autumn. Bond yields and fixed-rate mortgages will rise as a result. The cheapest rates ever will be gone. House prices will begin to reset. And Kate will really, really regret that picture.

159 comments ↓

#1 Peter W on 09.06.15 at 4:49 pm

“I wholeheartedly agree with the statement “technical factors can push the market away from fundamentals.” Indeed, that’s been the case now for going on seven years. A confluence of unprecedented monetary inflation, interest-rate manipulation, government deficits and leveraged speculation inflated a historic divergence between securities markets Bubbles and underlying fundamentals. The global Bubble is now faltering. Risk aversion is taking hold. De-leveraging is accelerating.”

The Unwind

http://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.ca/2015/09/weekly-commentary-unwind.html

#2 DJ on 09.06.15 at 4:58 pm

Very informative. Your posts are more powerful when your prose is cleansed of bitter cynicism…

Come over here and say that. — Garth

#3 Carlos, Richmond BC on 09.06.15 at 5:00 pm

Maybe the best time to sell the condo here and try and get most of my money back.

But trying to convince the wife to rent a place with our two little ones… Tougher. Doable, just tougher. Good 3+ bdrm rentals in Richmond under $2k/month are almost impossible to find around here. Especially ones that take pets.

#4 boo hoo on 09.06.15 at 5:05 pm

Karen is a pretentious idiot.

#5 PeterfromCalgary on 09.06.15 at 5:10 pm

Good news! Maybe the polls will turn around and I will be able to keep my TFSA increase.

#6 go fish on 09.06.15 at 5:18 pm

top 10

#7 Globe Bunny on 09.06.15 at 5:21 pm

“The last place oil producers want to be when prices plummet to profit-demolishing lows is midstream on a billion-dollar project in one of the costliest parts of the planet to extract crude. ”

91 countries, home to 5 billion souls are sinking into revolution, starvation and conflagration because of Obama’s insane ‘Attack on Oil’ policy. Just this morning Total ( France) announced it was abandoning many African projects altogether. Nigeria. Ghana, Gabon, Angola etc etc etc are a hairs breadth away from becoming failed states. Don’t make it sound like there’s a focus on Harper or Canadian businesses having anything to do with the global crash…..that’s entirely the work of the insane clown posse to the south of the 49th.

#8 paul a on 09.06.15 at 5:22 pm

well i think we shall meander our way through it,there will be corrections in areas that are befitting, I.E.real estate if you where stupid enough to buy into this carnival game within the last year or so you are likely dead meat swinging, to quote P.T. Barnham ( There is a sucker borne every minute) otherwise life goes on, you will trade down your meals out and reduce your spending , eliminate one of the trips to timmies daily and likely be concerned enough to realize its time to deal with the credit card bill, maybe wait for the next new car, and dispatch the newest I Phone to the would like to have but can not afford it file, in short its tough times to be sure,not a depression,not the end of our debt financed world , but a pause and reality check moral of the story : pay down debt, spend but be frugal , use the windfall tax free programs (TFSA) to the max, forget real estate, at least short term, relax and enjoy life

#9 Cici on 09.06.15 at 5:25 pm

Scotia is wrong. This is a recession, and the jobs growth comes from an uptick in government (municipal, provincial and federal) hirings (= unsustainable with governments running record deficits), as well as an uptick in construction jobs.

And, even if cutting again IS the wrong thing to do right now, for sure Poloz and his cohorts are going to go forward in that direction. Anything to give construction, renovation and housing another boost (probably the #1 sector driving GDP), as well as their chances at winning the election.

Karen is classic idiot, but never before in the history of Canada have so many idiots made it rich thanks to real estate. And of course she won’t rent or move to a smaller town with cheaper housing and take an early retirement…she thinks she’s above that. Time to take out another mortgage honey! Don’t worry, it always goes up! Take out two!!

#10 Smoking Man on 09.06.15 at 5:40 pm

Looks like we’ve hit the bottom in Canada, but will know for sure Wednesday morning. That’s when the central bank makes a key announcement which affects the chartered banks’ prime rate, lines of credits, HELOCs and variable-rate mortgages. Lots of people on this blog and elsewhere have argued the Bank of Canada will cut that rate for the third time in 2015, because the economy now blows. The collapse in commodity prices back to 1999 levels, taking oil with it, is having a dramatic effect.
…..

I was one of those that called for a cut, and I have huge skin in the game, with a nice 10 cent buffer…but the last two trade balance reports basically negates that call.

Plus with BOC thinking Yellen will pull the trigger. He can let someone else take the heat for crushing dollar and hopefully gets us back in a posative trade balance position.

Aim your crysal balls at the trade balance numbers if you want to play with FX, Helocks or Swaps.

Dr Smokey….

#11 waiting on the westcoast on 09.06.15 at 5:41 pm

Canada should not have lowered last time either… superfluous.

Sticking with my call on the US raising in September. Economy is continuing to heat up. My only worry is that something happens in the financial markets that freezes up liquidity like in 2008-9 (much smaller scale though). Right now, there is testosterone flowing in the US. And when Americans feel could, they buy!

I guess the “look at me” attitude is trans-generational. I thought we gen-x’rs were perfect. ;-)

#12 Former Fool on 09.06.15 at 5:43 pm

Nice post Garth. I was wondering when you were going to write about that “homeless” woman with $1m in the bank. I rolled my eyes when I read that story. Keep up the good work, your blog keeps me sane in these volatile times…

#13 Jerry McGuire on 09.06.15 at 5:44 pm

That’s ‘one million dollars Canadian’. Meaning it’s only $600,000 USD…or Chinese Renminbi….500,000 GBP. Which means that foreigners can outbid Canadians decrepit peso currency with real money and make it impossible for Canadians to compete. If you say ‘1 million dollars’, take into account that buyers in the million plus category are primarily foreigners…then no…Canadians don’t stand a chance of buying a house in the country to pay taxes in.

#14 KarenE on 09.06.15 at 5:44 pm

Carlos, Richmond BC: “Good 3+ bdrm rentals in Richmond under $2k/month are almost impossible to find around here. Especially ones that take pets.”

They’re out there. I’m in a 3 bedroom townhouse in Vancouver South, with a cat, for $1750/month and a view of the river.

#15 Mister Obvious on 09.06.15 at 5:47 pm

Edmonton has its mall, Toronto, its tower and PEI, its bridge but Vancouver has The Shivering Beggar. No, not the famous Robert Graves poem, this Guy…

http://tinyurl.com/nwhdams

#16 Freedom First on 09.06.15 at 5:48 pm

Yes. Karen is an ingrate.

The BOC could lower on Wed. The election is close.

H has already offered increase RRSP usage for RE, and a permanent home reno tax credit if elected. Perhaps 40 year 0% down mortgages are coming too. Let’s not rule out any insanity, I mean seriously, look at the debt levels of Canadians. Insanity abounds. Canadians are for sale and will hang themselves. Fact.

#17 Hicksville Alberta on 09.06.15 at 5:50 pm

” August’s employment gain of 12,000 was better than most had expected, thanks mainly to a hiring spree in the PUBLIC SECTOR “.

Add that to Notheadley’s unwillingness to deal with public sector bloat both in terms of price and quantity in Alberta and you can see the way the wind blows in this country as to the ultimate future fundamental value of the Canadian currency. For Notheadley’s stance is a good symbol of what is going on in the Public Sector throughout the country at all levels.

So Garth it seems you are right about being light on Maple investing but when you look at most or all of Europe and even the good old USA, it seems this disease is thoroughly embedded throughout all of the so called developed nations, so where to next?

I’ll bet that well over fifty percent if not up to all new net employment in this country created since the GFC has been at the Public Trough.

#18 Drill Baby Drill on 09.06.15 at 5:51 pm

Karen is a self entitled idiot! “Someone please sell me their house because my mom told me I am special and I deserve it.”

#19 Smoking Man on 09.06.15 at 5:52 pm

A man boarded an airplane and took his seat. As he settled in, he glanced Up and saw the most beautiful woman boarding the plane. He soon realized She was heading straight towards his seat. As fate would have it, she took The seat right beside his. Eager to strike up a conversation he blurted out, “Business trip or pleasure?”
She turned, smiled and said, “Business. I’m going to the Annual Nymphomaniacs of America Convention in Boston.”
He swallowed hard. Here was the most gorgeous woman he had ever seen Sitting next to him, and she was going to a meeting of nymphomaniacs!
Struggling to maintain his composure, he calmly asked, “What’s your Business at this convention?”
“Lecturer,” she responded. “I use information that I have learned from my Personal experiences to debunk some of the popular myths about sexuality.”
“Really?” he said. “And what kind of myths are there?”
“Well,” she explained, “one popular myth is that African-American men are The most well-endowed of all men, when in fact it is the Native American Indian who is most likely to possess that trait. Another popular myth is That Frenchmen are the best lovers, when actually it is men of Mexican Descent who are the best. I have also discovered that the lover with Absolutely the best stamina is the Southern Redneck.”
Suddenly the woman became a little uncomfortable and blushed.. “I’m Sorry,” she said, “I shouldn’t really be discussing all of this with you. I don’t Even know your name.”
“Tonto,” the man said, “Tonto Gonzales, but my friends call me Bubba”.

#20 David on 09.06.15 at 5:53 pm

Rates can easily be increased if indeed we see anything like a ‘destructive round of inflation’. However, we’re essentially still at the zero lower bound and the risks associated with stunting a recovery are greater than the risk of inflation.

#21 Retired Boomer - WI on 09.06.15 at 5:53 pm

#7 Globe Bunny

“…that’s entirely the work of the insane clown posse to the south of the 49th.”

…Put a sock in it….

#22 Rockyl on 09.06.15 at 6:02 pm

The sooner the better.

#23 Leslie on 09.06.15 at 6:12 pm

Money is meant to be free to borrow … I think it will get there one day

#24 Marco on 09.06.15 at 6:22 pm

The entitlement is astounding.

Perhaps a new HGTV series?

The millionaire homeless of Vancouver; Find me and renovate me a house stat!

Or simply: The entitled bunch

Cheers.

#25 JSS on 09.06.15 at 6:28 pm

So far in Alberta, house prices are still sky high, malls are still filled, and restaurants are still busy. And unemployment is still relatively low here.

So I call bullshit to what’s being said on this pathetic blog.

It’s not 1982 here in Alberta.

#26 Skool Lern Me Good on 09.06.15 at 6:31 pm

Wifey says only men are pimps, so that make her a “media whore”.

A verrrry rich one, nontheless

$1.3 Mil in a Garth Boring&BalancedInvestingPlan(tm) would easily crank out $90K annually. She could rent a decent pad for that.

#27 DisgustMadeMePost on 09.06.15 at 6:31 pm

Media Pimp.

Oh, you so nailed that one.

My God. I didnt find the #donthaveamillion woman nearly as repulsive.

Wonder if she’s friends with Honey Boo Boo…

Damn those nasty 1st world problems.

#28 pinstripe on 09.06.15 at 6:32 pm

at the sunday brunch the discussion focused on Vancouver and Toronto joining the list of the world class cities. the 1% big money is buying up the property in these areas and forcing the 99% people to the non desirable areas. ioW, Toronto and Vancouver are directly competitive with cities like Paris, New Yourk, London, Geneva, san Francisco, etc.

This is all part of the global economy and the b ig money follows the best.

#29 saskatoon on 09.06.15 at 6:32 pm

you know things are getting crazy when “the experts agree” line gets trotted out.

#30 Mocha on 09.06.15 at 6:36 pm

You are right to mock Karen. Truly pathetic social media attention whoring.

#31 Mocha on 09.06.15 at 6:40 pm

@peter from Calgary:

The overreaction of the NDP and liberals to this Syrian thing is going to help Harper in the polls. I’m not too happy about that, but on this issue he is the only one of the main 3 that is keeping a level head, although of course he still wants to drop more bombs.

#32 j shum on 09.06.15 at 6:41 pm

No sympathy for this lady. Read the CBC story first. Claims she is willing to rent and can’t find anything. Read Metro story with her talking about playing She has to has a house. Bought 1 million dollar dump to renovate.
I think her name is Kate by the way

“Whyte recognizes her family is in a better position than many people. They did everything they were supposed to, climbing the real estate ladder over the past 15 years with a small condo then a larger one before stretching to buy their house seven years ago”

You continue to play to try to climb the property ladder lady. Let me know how your latest attempt works out

http://www.metronews.ca/news/vancouver/2015/09/02/north-vancouver-real-estate-market-squeezes-residents.html

#33 Smartalox on 09.06.15 at 6:50 pm

Kate doesn’t have a Million dollars; what she has is a million-dollar mortgage that she has to port over to a new property within 90 days, or else pay a hefty break fee.

But even if she had the million, it just goes to show you that a million doesn’t buy much any more – certainly not class, at least!

As for the hiring data, lots of school boards hire staff in August (signing contracts, if not actually paying until after school starts, though. Also, what proportion of public sector hires were elections Canada workers? Those are full-time jobs, at least until October 20th right?

These jobs numbers are a SHAM; that’s why the unemployment rate still went up.

#34 Lead Paint on 09.06.15 at 6:51 pm

Does this scare anybody else? “August’s employment gain of 12,000 was better than most had expected, thanks mainly to a hiring spree in the public sector”. Why don’t we all just work for the government to erase unemployment and fix the economy altogether?

#35 Mocha on 09.06.15 at 6:51 pm

@jerry McGuire 13

In the used truck auction market, it’s exactly as you are claiming: US block auction buyers are easily outbidding Canadians for the high end vehicles and then taking them back to the states for a solid profit on the used car lots. Canadian buyers have a 25% “handicap”.

#36 devore on 09.06.15 at 6:53 pm

#firstworldproblems

#37 Gregor Samsa on 09.06.15 at 6:54 pm

#9 Cici – good post, completely agree.

On what planet is a public sector hiring spree count as an economic recovery? Particularly when pretty much every government in Canada, including the Feds, are in the red.

Canada’s economy is anaemic. People are cash strapped and struggling. And the BoC is going the kill the only thing keeping the condo economy going? Fat chance.

Take Alberta – there are cranes and construction projects EVERYWHERE here. There must be thousands and thousands of people being employed in this industry. Lots of Harper voters in that crowd. Poloz is a puppet and Harper has the strings. I expect, at best, the BoC to hold stead on the current interest rate, with about a 50% chance of rate cut.

#38 Ardy on 09.06.15 at 6:54 pm

I remember when GM offered incentives for tens of thousands of workers to retire early, moving them off the active employment numbers and onto the pension plan.

Is this what is happening in the public service ?

People are retiring and collecting a public service pension, and they are being replaced with taxpayers picking up the cost ?

Well then…………just a reminder that GM went bankrupt shortly thereafter.

#39 Blobby on 09.06.15 at 6:55 pm

“This. Is. Not. A. Recession”

Well, now we know what Harpers meeting with Poloz was about.. Getting him to repeat that we’re not in a recession to help out his buddy with the bad hair.

#40 Brian Ripley on 09.06.15 at 6:58 pm

“self-fulfilling prophecy”

One item that is self-fulfilling is the diminution of desire to buy real estate until 1Q next year.

My sales and absorption rate charts:
http://www.chpc.biz/sales-listings.html

…updated with August data is manifestly seasonal. Most people drop out of the real estate rat race until the spring. So for the next quarter, good news will be good, but bad could be ugly for the bulls who are riding high at this point.

#41 jess on 09.06.15 at 7:01 pm

entitlement?

February 22, 2013, 1:52 PM
Study confirms widespread mortgage fraud

The authors specifically studied two types of mortgage misrepresentations: mortgages taken for primary residences that were not, in fact, primary residences, and mortgages taken for one property, while the second mortgage on the same property was concealed.

=
http://neweconomicperspectives.org/2015/08/the-worst-of-the-worst-of-the-worst-new-century-and-its-economics-shills.html#more-9626

Worst Ten in the Worst Ten
http://www.occ.treas.gov/news-issuances/news-releases/2009/nr-occ-2009-112b.pdf

=
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/fsr-june15-christensen.pdf

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/07/30/canadas-highly-touted-conservative-mortgage-standards-sink-into-liar-loan-scandal/

#42 Gregor Samsa on 09.06.15 at 7:02 pm

#31 Mocha – Over the past several years, Canada has let in about 2000 Syrian refugees out of potential millions, while Harper promotes both a civil war (supporting “Syrian” opposition) in Syria and an ineffectual, destabilizing bombing campaign that are both creating more refugees every day. Makes me ashamed of my country.

Most Canadians do care about this issue, more than TFSAs even.

#43 Ilona on 09.06.15 at 7:10 pm

Ok, will buy one more strip bond on Tuesday just in case… :) But, if we’re not in a recession and the worst is [almost] over, do you think it’s a good idea:

1) Open a non-reg trading account and fund it with 3.7% HELOC (thinking to start with 10K)
2) Buy one third each monthly dividend paying stocks and/or ETFs to take care of interest payments (for example, Pembina Pipeline and ZPR)
3) Buy a growth ETF with quarterly or semi-annual dividends to use for capital gains and principal repayment (VFV, XEF or XAW)
4) Keep adding borrowed cash and buying more if markets go further down
5) Hold for 10+ years, adding tax returns from interest payments to the principal repayment
6) Sell some holdings, repay the remaining debt, keep the rest

(We’re in 40%+ marginal tax rates, make regular contributions to our registered accounts and won’t have a problem repaying the initial loan quickly if things don’t go as planned)

Thanks in advance to anyone who’s doing something similar for their opinion (and to Garth if he chooses to answer :)

#44 Mean Gene on 09.06.15 at 7:22 pm

Million dollars and homeless, WTH? More money than intelligence is more accurate. Clueless and entitled living in North Van.

#45 MSM-Free Zone on 09.06.15 at 7:32 pm

“….So, our central bank will not move this week…..”
_________________________

Never underestimate the far-reaching tentacles of a PMO in 3rd place at the polls.

#46 S.Bby on 09.06.15 at 7:35 pm

That Kate person typifies Vancouver entitlement. I have never seen it so much me, me,me, as in the last few years in Vancouver.

Concerning rents, they have really shot up this year, perhaps owners are tying to cover their inflated costs; don’t know, but asking several hundreds more per month for most units this year over last.

BoC could cut again; Harper has shown he is willing to throw the dollar under the bus to get re-elected and he is desperate. Never underestimate a desperate man.

Interest rates have been held too low for too long. Undeniable damage has been done to world economies due to this reckless central bank policy.

#47 MSM-Free Zone on 09.06.15 at 7:50 pm

#5 PeterfromCalgary on 09.06.15 at 5:10 pm
“….Good news! Maybe the polls will turn around and I will be able to keep my TFSA increase….”
_________________________

Sorry, I’ve had enough.

I simply can’t justify a $5k increase in my TFSA contribution limit for four more years of contempt of parliament, contempt for democracy, contempt for our Charter of Rights, contempt for the Supreme Court, vote-rigging, voter suppression, muzzling back-benchers, muzzling science, snubbing first ministers conferences, gutting Statistics Canada, fake balanced budgets, record national debt, unaffordable home ownership, hypocritical hidden omnibus bills, character assassinations, auditing opposing think tanks and charities, photo-opping with overseas veterans, then throwing returning wounded veterans under a bus, Action Plans that don’t exist, faking free-market principles, then gutting Canadian middle class wages with Temporary Foreign Workers, abandoning peace-keeping in favour of putting targets on Canadians backs, and bombing Canadians with perpetual daily fear-mongering and frightfully misleading attack ads.

These ‘posers have to go. I want my true (c)onservatives back.

#48 Retired Boomer - WI on 09.06.15 at 8:05 pm

Love the picture on tonight’s blog of the dog in the mud (cooling off maybe?)…not so much the picture of the other dog (purebred whiner to be sure)…

#49 Tunker on 09.06.15 at 8:10 pm

My partner and I sold our home in west end Toronto. $100 shy of $1,000,000. 3 month closing. We looked in TO for our next home, but zilch — couldn’t stomach parting with loads of $$$ in exchange for a gut job. Looked outside TO, within 1 hr to work, and still nothing. We’ve decided to rent a house and wait it out. Now our biggest concern is where we park our proceeds. Cash rich, house poor.

#50 Grey Man on 09.06.15 at 8:14 pm

I walked into a pub last night and saw three large ladies at the bar chatting with strong accents that I thought was Scottish
Good evening lassies are you from Scotland ?
Well the biggest turned and said angrily “Wales Wales we are”
So I say ” My apologies are you three whales from Scotland ?
Thats was the last I remember.

#51 prairie person on 09.06.15 at 8:14 pm

Went downtown today. The local paper is correct. I’ve never seen so many tourists. Holidays are thirty percent cheaper than they were. It might be 84 dollars for take the ferry from Tswassen to Vancouver Island but that’s only 84-(84 x 70%)= 58.80 if my math is right, hotel rooms, meals, all the same. Circled the downtown three times looking for a parking spot. Finally gave up. The parkades all had full signs. Parked a good distance away at Beacon Hill park and had to make a couple of circuits to find a spot. Local downtown businesses have been closing because there isn’t enough business but times are better. It was impossible to get a seat at Milestones. The Blues concert was packed. Some business people and employees are benefiting from the low dollar but, of course, most of these jobs are low paid and seasonal. We need factories, not pedicab peddlers.

#52 Tony on 09.06.15 at 8:18 pm

I do remember the housing peak in the fall of 1987 said to be in 1989. Back then I did read the newspapers a lot. The tip-off was a guy selling his garage beside his house under the premise “Garage for sale $99,000 can easily be converted into a house” This was in Toronto at the time.

#53 Grey Man on 09.06.15 at 8:29 pm

Good joke Smoking man .
I’m calling a rate cut again same as last 25points , get your precious metal before Wed. CAD $1.37

#54 Tony on 09.06.15 at 8:31 pm

Re: #46 Tunker on 09.06.15 at 8:10 pm

Day trading isn’t easy when everything at the moment seems rigged. So unlike Smoking Man I just mostly play spreads and straddles.

#55 Peter on 09.06.15 at 8:32 pm

“My partner and I sold our home in west end Toronto. $100 shy of $1,000,000…Now our biggest concern is where we park our proceeds. Cash rich, house poor.”

If you read this blog and need to wonder about this you clearly do not get it.

#56 Daisy Mae on 09.06.15 at 8:40 pm

#33: “As for the hiring data, lots of school boards hire staff in August (signing contracts, if not actually paying until after school starts, though. Also, what proportion of public sector hires were elections Canada workers? Those are full-time jobs, at least until October 20th right?”

*****************

I agree. Is this what we call a ‘false positive’? LOL

These jobs numbers are a SHAM; that’s why the unemployment rate still went up.

#57 Snowboid on 09.06.15 at 8:42 pm

51 prairie person on 09.06.15 at 8:14 pm…

While you may be correct that it’s busy, but most tourists with US dollars aren’t likely that impressed.

There were always lots of US tourists in Victoria when we lived there, even when their dollar was lower.

Although Washington and Oregon prices are higher than Arizona, it’s still questionable whether there really is much value in vacationing in Canada.

Just checked and fuel at our regular Phoenix station is $ .87 CAD per litre and the local economists are predicting $ .69 CAD by Christmas.

Most necessities for our winter stay run 40-60% less than in Kelowna, and the gap is widening.

If we didn’t get the Phoenix flyers by mail, we may be reluctant to question the near obscene prices of essentials in Kelowna.

Instead, our weekly visit to the local Kelowna supermarket leaves us gasping for air.

My latest WTF moment was thinking I may get new tires for the beast before we head south. Best price for the tires I wanted mounted in Kelowna $ 1200 for four, at the local tire shop in Phoenix $ 650 – both prices in CAD.

Rant off/

#58 Freedom First on 09.06.15 at 9:00 pm

#43 Ilona

Ilona, you are in/headed for trouble. Find a personal financial adviser, definitely not a financial salesman. Big difference. Research this and read all of Garth’s Blog. Good luck.

#59 Smoking Man on 09.06.15 at 9:07 pm

#53 Grey Man on 09.06.15 at 8:29 pm
Good joke Smoking man .
I’m calling a rate cut again same as last 25points , get your precious metal before Wed. CAD $1.37
……
Precious metals, nah, cant compete with Central bankers.

Cant see a rate cut from BOC in near future, It would be amazing . even my used boat goes up in value when USD gets stronger.

My big bet has a bit to go, just need Yellen to do the wrong thing and spike….

#60 common sense on 09.06.15 at 9:12 pm

Forum question…

Does the CDN gov’t know the amounts within our bank accounts?

As a dual citizen living in Canada, I must report the balances yearly to the IRS in the States…

#61 Drill Baby Drill on 09.06.15 at 9:20 pm

#25 JSS
I have been thru 5 downturns in Alberta over the past 37 years. This downturn is going to get very nasty. People have not felt the real bite as yet from this oil plunge. They have access to credit which they will soon learn to regret. Their buyouts and or EI benefits are still holding them but let’s talk in 2 months.

#62 Llewelyn on 09.06.15 at 9:35 pm

It would appear that Stats Can may be using a different methodology to establish our labour force and official unemployment rate.

Between August 2014 and August 2015 the official Canadian labour force increased by 203,600 persons to a total of 19,312,000 persons.

Employed members within the Canadian labour force increased by 193,300 persons to a total of 17,966,000 persons.

As a result the official unemployment rate in Canada increased to 7.0% in August 2015

The population of the United States is 9.15 times as large as the population of Canada.

While the distribution of age cohorts in the United States and Canada is slightly different one might expect that a country with a population 9.15 times greater than Canada to record an official labour force in the range of 157,000,000 persons.

According to the Department of Labor the United States labour force was recorded at 157,065,000 in August 2015, a 956,000 person increase since August 2014.

As I commented earlier this month the offical labour force in the United States actually shrank by 115,000 persons since January 2015.

Without adjustment to exclude citizens eligible to work the official labour force in the United States should have increased by a minimum of 1,600,000 persons over the past 12 months. This would be comparable to the increase experienced in Canada

Employed members within the United States labour force were reported to have increased by 2,589,000 persons between August 2014 and August 2015.

As a result the official unemployment rate in the United States declined to 5.1% in August 2015

It would appear that the United States excluded 650,000 persons from their official labour force with the objective of reducing their unemployment rate. I am not sure of the justification of this exclusion but I can tell you that if the Canadian labour force increased by 203,600 in 12 months an increase of only 956,000 in the United States deserves further examination.

While there is no doubt that the unemployment rate in the United States is declining I am pretty sure the official figure of 5.1% reported in for August 2015 was a very gilded lily.

The fact that not a single source in the Canadian media questioned the abnormally low increase of the official labour force in the United States when compared to increases in the Canadian labour force concerns me.

Could it be that we have become conditioned to swallow whatever our neighbour decides to put on the menu?

Bitter pills may follow.

#63 Grey Man on 09.06.15 at 9:37 pm

Another Hysterical B.L.S report USA unemployment 5.1

1. Official labour force =157m

2. Unemployed not counted in labour force 94m

3. Official unemployed =8.2m

Official unemployment rate (3/1)=5.2%

4. Real labour force (1+2) =251

5. Real unemployed (2+3) =102.2

6. Real unemployment (5/4) =40.7 %

Is it possible Harpers numbers are as hysterical?

#64 Woke To The Sounds Of Horking on 09.06.15 at 9:46 pm

Kate’s attitude exemplifies why I left Vancouver.

Anyone wanna roughly estimate when the CAD will get closer to par with USD?

#65 Mark on 09.06.15 at 9:48 pm

“And why, the experts agree, rates are not doing down.”

“Experts” were actually saying that the BoC was on the precipice of rate hikes from 1% as little as a year or two ago. The data didn’t support them then. The ‘experts’ are failing to grasp the sort of carnage unfurling in the housing market, employment market, and the general economy. No wonder they come to the bizarre conclusion that the future won’t feature more rate cuts.

As it stands, the BoC is way behind the curve in providing appropriately stimulative policy. Housing prices have been stagnant to falling for over 2 years now. Overcapacity reigns supreme in the key sectors of economic growth for the past decade. Despite a 25% drop in the Canadian dollar, domestic demand is so weak that there has been no impact on StatsCan-calculated inflation.

Barring a new demand driver in the Canadian economy, the BoC will need to continue to lower rates and engage in stimulative policy. What that demand driver might be, I don’t know. But it is obvious that the BoC made a giant series of policy blunders 1-2 years ago when they raised the policy rate to 1% in the absence of a sustainable recovery.

#66 Grey Man on 09.06.15 at 9:53 pm

The advice of Jean-Claude Juncker ” When it becomes serious you have to lie” It seems U.S. and Canadian politician’s are following this advice.

#67 For those about to flop... on 09.06.15 at 10:08 pm

#2Very informative. Your posts are more powerful when your prose is cleansed of bitter cynicism…

Come over here and say that. — Garth

//////////////////////////

You crack me up man!
By the way 6 more sleeps to your next”Lesson”
Probably not in your best interests to challenge me as I am a 6ft 2 250lb gorilla but you could possibly correct me to death.
Keep bangin’ the drum my friend there are people listening to your message.

#68 bigtown on 09.06.15 at 10:09 pm

The family did a cross border trip to upstate New York along the St. Lawrence River between Cornwall and Ogdensburg on the U.S. border….the U.S. side is like one of those 19th century Monet landscapes. Of course I did my due diligence and shopped my favourite W’s: Walmart and Walgreens.

The Wal-Mart in Watertown, N.Y. was stocked with great fashion and prices compared to Canada Walmart is like shopping in Cuba in There were many promotions for Canadians. The Walmart accepted Canadian money at a very good rate and the Holiday Inn took Canadian at par.

CBC Marketplace did a story on COLLATERAL MORTGAGES which are a sleeper product at the banks sold to the poor trustful Canadian consumer unaware of the pitfalls of naivite. Folks believe they are getting a regular mortgage unaware the collateral mortgage ties heavy debt filled obligations onto the contract that must be met before the mortgage is discharged.

CBC also did an expose on EASY FINANCIAL. This outfit charge usury rates up to just under the criminal code limit of 60% and does not alert the poor duped client to the added insurance charges of the loan which are not mandatory but SNEAKY little land mines allowed in our very well regulated financial industry.

#69 Grey Man on 09.06.15 at 10:13 pm

#64 Anyone want to estimate when the US and CAD will be on par ?
The USD wil rise and rise then rise some more then die soon to become
ZIMBABWE dollars.

#70 common sense on 09.06.15 at 10:17 pm

#68 Bigtown..

EASY FINANCIAL ? Anything but…

Kinda like changing the terminology of Gambling to Gaming in the 1990’s…We are all just playing a game called taking your money…It’s just a fun game!!

#71 stage1dave on 09.06.15 at 10:21 pm

“Peak house”…haha…love it!

Hell, I’ve already been thru “peak muscle car”; (and pretty much sold everything) now I’m waiting for “peak OPC”…raw or graded; over the next couple years. And I think “peak late 50’s-early to mid 60’s classic cars” is still to come, (hope so, ’cause that’s what I started buying late last decade) but the price points won’t be 10% of what #1 LS-6 Chevelles, Hemi’cudas, & Shelbys were bringin a decade ago. People seem to be buyin’ drivers to enjoy these days, not trailer queens. And “peak 80’s cars” is here right now…Gn’s, 5 litre foxbodys, IROC Z’s, T/A’s; etc.

Got thru “peak t shirt” as well, that ended about a year ago.

(Apparently everyone in Asia that wanted a black H-D shirt or trucker t with “FLYING J travel plaza-Amarillo Texas” on the back has one) There may be some further room for appreciation in well-preserved 80’s wearables from Maiden, GnR, Metallica, etc; but most of the market now seems to in the lower price point stuff. Besides, I see lotsa millenials wearin’ the reprints (band licensed) which can be bought for under $20. (Most people don’t know the difference, & wouldn’t shell out another zero to put it on their back if they did)

Funny how these niche markets flounder after a crash, looking for a bottom. The upper end of any hobby may be recession-proof (kinda like the market for 3m homes in la-la land, or original swiss-cheese SD ponchos, or that 666 Oilers t that Maiden sold in ’88 during it’s western Canadian swing, or PSA 8 Bobby Orr RC’s) but the broad general expanse of any hobby quits spending it’s money pretty quick.

Come to think of it, I’m still waiting for “peak 8 track” & “peak Aurora plastic model”…hmmm…

Nostalgia always sells for a while, so I’m wonderin’ what people will be lookin for to “invest” over the next 2-5 years; it sure as hell won’t be housing!

#72 Garth Vader on 09.06.15 at 10:21 pm

Hello.

I have a question maybe somebody can answer. If elderly people (95’ish) with no history of “investing” have a POA that takes a large part of their savings and puts it in high-yield private REITS, is this legal? Any help on this matter would be appreciated. Additionally, the private REITS are part of the POA’s boyfriend’s portfolio as well.

#73 gut check on 09.06.15 at 10:28 pm

“#34 Lead Paint on 09.06.15 at 6:51 pm
Does this scare anybody else? “August’s employment gain of 12,000 was better than most had expected, thanks mainly to a hiring spree in the public sector”. Why don’t we all just work for the government to erase unemployment and fix the economy altogether?”

yep, it scares me.

The more people who work for any level of government the fewer people who are free. To work for the government one must swear an Oath and if those people dare to even make an off-colour comment about said government (any level) they can be fired.

Essentially this would be indentured servitude.

Terrible situation for people – AMAZING boon to socialist / communist / dictatorships / fascists / oligarchies and monarchies.

But this is the banality of evil.
I already know a large number of people who are silenced in just this way. Some of them push the limits, some of them have turned to addictions of one sort or another, others distract themselves constantly with hockey or food or parties or travel – all of them are building a shitty future for their kids in spite of those steady paychecks.

#74 millenial1982 on 09.06.15 at 10:43 pm

General contractors in the housing industry are loosing workers steadily to the reopening of the wood industries and mines in our area. Our dollar is cheap again and there’s demand from the USA stoking the fire. Sounds hard to believe but theres a general shortage of workers for these positions all around! Not to mention the strong US dollar is making our land attractive to Americans and they are once again starting to buy and build cottages here. Appears good news to me for our economy just a matter of a few more quarters to see the effect. Might not be as bad as people are making it out to be.

#75 Bottoms_Up on 09.06.15 at 10:43 pm

#48 prairie person on 09.06.15 at 8:14 pm
—————————–
Bauer hockey helmets are made inTaiwan. Shame.

#76 common sense on 09.06.15 at 10:49 pm

#70 Stage1dave…

Quality vintage as long as it’s affordable will always be valuable have found…One of a kind, super rare items…everything else takes a loss when disposable income is down.

Walking around classic car shows this summer, I kept asking myself..”Who are these 65 plus yr old’s going to be selling their vintage 40-50-60’s cars to in the future?” Their grand kids don’t care and the middle class has no money…

My lovely 74 VW Ghia should have been for sale a year ago….now it is a nice summer driver…

#77 Terry on 09.06.15 at 10:56 pm

Things are not good in Canada these days. Just moved some more money out of Canadian denominated investments. Canada is not the place to be for good investment returns going forward toward the end of this decade. I also see a relentless slow housing meltdown for the next 10 years here. It was a good run in Canada in the past………but not anymore. It is what it is so if you want growth on your money don’t invest in Canada!

#78 Ralph Cramdown on 09.06.15 at 11:04 pm

THE RICH MAN’S PANIC OF 2015

I’ve found the whole concept of a “technical recession” very entertaining. It seems that the same people who’ve been telling us for decades that a recession is two consecutive quarters of shrinking output now want to shade the definition somewhat if it happens at an inconvenient point in the election cycle or the credit cycle.

If output shrank in the face of a growing population and labour force, somebody lost. If it wasn’t employees, it was either owners/shareholders or lenders/bondholders. Depending on how the loss is apportioned, spending will be affected, and wealth will be redistributed.

I understand how a gaggle of bank economists are loth to yell “fire!” in a crowded credit market, even as their preferred government is facing tough re-election prospects. So sad.

Special award of merit goes to Philip Cross, former Statscan honcho and now economics hack-about-town, who opined a week ago that 2nd quarter “GDP will almost certainly be positive.”

“Data driven” is the mantra for the next few months.

#79 Smoking Man on 09.06.15 at 11:08 pm

#73 gut check on 09.06.15 at 10:28 pm
“#34 Lead Paint on 09.06.15 at 6:51 pm
Does this scare anybody else? “August’s employment gain of 12,000 was better than most had expected, thanks mainly to a hiring spree in the public sector”. Why don’t we all just work for the government to erase unemployment and fix the economy altogether?”

yep, it scares me.

The more people who work for any level of government the fewer people who are free. To work for the government one must swear an Oath and if those people dare to even make an off-colour comment about said government (any level) they can be fired.

Essentially this would be indentured servitude.

Terrible situation for people – AMAZING boon to socialist / communist / dictatorships / fascists / oligarchies and monarchies.

But this is the banality of evil.
I already know a large number of people who are silenced in just this way. Some of them push the limits, some of them have turned to addictions of one sort or another, others distract themselves constantly with hockey or food or parties or travel – all of them are building a shitty future for their kids in spite of those steady paychecks….
….

Brilliant, god I wish I had your techicaly perfect writing and penminship skills.

Right on..

Humans have an addiction to tribes, I’m a civil servant, I’m a Jew, I’m loyal to alla, Im a Leaf Fan…

This loyalty to anyone but yourself is why little boys drown in Oceans. Entire populations are in consentration camps in 2015. Can you beilive that.

Yet the losers in the Journalism tribe.. Sorry I need to eat, I regret I cant tell the truth. Even if it saves my life.

Im not happy about it. It is what it is…

Sept 27th 2015 , the entire population of earth faces extinction. Big a ass planet Is paying a visit. A direct trajectory to the atlantic ocean.

Lucky for you earthlings. me , Ashman, Jeremiah, and Barrington, are working that day..

Your Welcome Humans..

#80 Nosty, etc. on 09.06.15 at 11:08 pm

Blacksheep and SMan — here’s a special message from Dog just for you. We’ll understand if you’re away for a week or three!

#81 Leo Trollstoy on 09.06.15 at 11:18 pm

So, our central bank will not move this week. The Fed will increase this autumn. Bond yields and fixed-rate mortgages will rise as a result. The cheapest rates ever will be gone.

Garth is likely correct again.

#82 Mark on 09.06.15 at 11:28 pm

“I have a question maybe somebody can answer. If elderly people (95’ish) with no history of “investing” have a POA that takes a large part of their savings and puts it in high-yield private REITS, is this legal? Any help on this matter would be appreciated. Additionally, the private REITS are part of the POA’s boyfriend’s portfolio as well.”

POA’s are held to a very high standard as fiduciaries. In theory, if losses arose from such an arrangement, the Estate could pursue the POA for damages, especially if there is evidence that such was not done in good faith, was not done within the authority granted by the POA, or was outside of the norms expected by a POA managing a portfolio of a 95-year-old person.

As for redress, ideally, someone in the family would have obtained an injunction against the POA *before* the decision was implemented (or during any cooling off period, as appropriate). If the deal has already been done, then its largely a matter of the Estate pursuing the POA for damages if such occurs. Which, with the way our legal system is structured, could take years to make it to trial, with most costs taxable against the Estate. There might be some form of redress against the dealer of the investment through the investment regulators which is another avenue to look at.

Basically, unless we’re talking about millions of dollars here to overcome the high cost of litigation, it sounds like the beneficiaries are screwed in the case of loss.

But by all means, you really shouldn’t take the words of a random greaterfool poster to have any meaning on this topic — consult qualified legal counsel with the facts specific to the circumstances in question.

#83 Investx on 09.06.15 at 11:35 pm

You might actually be right this time about soon-to-be-rising interest rates, Garth.

#84 prairie person on 09.06.15 at 11:35 pm

Snowboid

Yes, the difference is shocking. I’ve lived and worked in the US in two different states. A dollar definitely went further in the USA. Financially, I probably should have stayed there. Little tense, though. Pistol for the car. Pistol for the kitchen. More relaxing here. Still, I miss the pulled pork and the gumbo. The Texas beaches. Draw fast, shoot straight and you are fine. Learn the barrios, neighbourhoods to stay away from. Learn to say vee-hickle with a straight face.

#85 Smoking Man on 09.06.15 at 11:41 pm

#77 Nosty, etc. on 09.06.15 at 11:08 pm
Blacksheep and SMan — here’s a special message from Dog just for you. We’ll understand if you’re away for a week or three!

Nosty
That was Ashman…Ive turned him into a lush.. He always fks up….at every turn..

He should have just asked..

Not proud of my Nectonight partners..He’s young, cut him some slack.

#86 Sheane Wallace on 09.06.15 at 11:51 pm

We gambled on the losing horse:

http://washpost.bloomberg.com/Story?docId=1376-NU2D8R6KLVR501-2T4KBBANSMT8EHC59PR0T5IS1S

#87 Sheane Wallace on 09.06.15 at 11:53 pm

it seems even 30 cents loonie won’t help the tar sand oil companies. But hey, Steve might work it out to 25 cents?

He is capable.

#88 Urgent Tina on 09.06.15 at 11:55 pm

#28 pinstripe on 09.06.15 at 6:32 pm
at the sunday brunch the discussion focused on Vancouver and Toronto joining the list of the world class cities. the 1% big money is buying up the property in these areas and forcing the 99% people to the non desirable areas. ioW, Toronto and Vancouver are directly competitive with cities like Paris, New Yourk, London, Geneva, san Francisco, etc.

This is all part of the global economy and the b ig money follows the best.”

Using your logic, Toronto is now in the same class as Luanda, Angola which is one of the world’s most expensive cities…RE is also extremely expensive in Mumbai, Delhi….Toronto should join with these other newbies to form a nouveau riche RE club…

#89 David_TO on 09.06.15 at 11:56 pm

Conservative candidate Jerry Bance caught in CBC sting urinating in homeowner’s coffee mug :

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/jerry-bance-marketplace-1.3217797

#90 Terry on 09.07.15 at 12:00 am

Extra…..The Fed in the States WILL be raising the discount rate very soon even if it’s only a token 10 basis points. Janet Yellen has to make her mark and to send a message to the world that this is Janet Yellens Federal Reserve Bank. She needs to put and end to the Greenspan/Bernanke “PUT”. Raising interest rates tells the world that the patient (economy) can now start to come off of life support imposed back during the 08/09 financial crisis. Rising interest rates tells me and investors like me that we are recovering and our economy is really improving. Rates in the gutter means that our economy is sick and teetering on the edge of the abyss. Traders on Wall and Bay Streets will have to re-learn how to make money during a rising interest rate environment since all they know for the past decade is how to use more borrowed cheap money for investing.

#91 Great Canadian Bubble Co. on 09.07.15 at 12:06 am

Repeat after me, ‘This is NOT a Bubble!, This is NOT a Bubble!, This is NOT A BUBBLE!’

Right?

(crickets)

#92 Tony on 09.07.15 at 12:12 am

Garth Vader :

“I have a question maybe somebody can answer”

Lawyer up. Nothing you learn here will help. And buckle down for a hard slog.

#93 Great Canadian Bubble Co. on 09.07.15 at 12:15 am

Regardless of her lack of tact, the argument can be made by real estate supporters that she has effectively ‘won’. Whether she realizes it or not, sitting on 1.3 Million tax free (even in loonie-toony CDN dollars), is an enviable position to be in for the vast majority of Canadians. One that her family seems to have achieved by ‘investing’ in the CDN Real Estate Bubble. No?

#94 Yuus bin Haad on 09.07.15 at 12:18 am

Peak house? Peak something.

#95 Gone Bye Bye on 09.07.15 at 12:31 am

I don’t understand. If Canada is running deficits in both Federal and Provincial levels, and employment levels only boosted by public sector hiring, how is that sustainable? Oh that’s right, it isn’t!!!

#96 Dee on 09.07.15 at 12:31 am

@#13 Think about it, though. Why would anyone in the US or UK buy here? If you’ve got US$600k to invest in real estate, it goes so, so much farther down there than in Vancouver.

And if you want to invest outside the country for whatever reason, you can buy a mansion in a warm sunny place for peanuts compared to a sad condo in a place where it rains 300 days/year in a country where the governing party sponsors a man who gets busted peeing in a mug on CBC.

This whole idea that foreigners will save our real estate bubble just doesn’t pass the smell test. Even with our plummeting dollar, real estate in the 604/416 still makes no sense compared to almost anywhere else. They’ll buy an estate in Central or South America, or they’ll invest in something like VNQI.

#97 MF on 09.07.15 at 12:35 am

#7 Globe Bunny on 09.06.15 at 5:21 pm

I disagree that our southern neighbour is solely responsible for the current oil situation. You gotta put some blame on the Saudi’s, who are trying to corner the market and bankrupt Iran. And we can’t forget some of the other infighting at the OPEC circus as the other little totalitarian and dictator member states try to jocky for more powerful positions among themselves.

I think the US wisely realized the need to become less reliant on mid east oil during the 70’s when OPEC used their oil as a political weapon. Since then other anti US/Western statesmen have tried the same card, with varying successes. It’s smart policy IMO. The move by the Saudi’s was unforeseen t hough. Irony now is US oil industries are hurting at these prices….yet the US economy as a whole thrives on the lower priced energy.

It’s hard to tell if the whole thing is a net positive or negative for the US. I say good less reliance on foreign oil is a good move. Definitely pissing a lot of other people off though.

MF

#98 betamax on 09.07.15 at 12:39 am

#33 Smartalox: “Kate doesn’t have a Million dollars; what she has is a million-dollar mortgage that she has to port over to a new property within 90 days, or else pay a hefty break fee.”

Exactly. Here’s the epilogue to the story, from CBC news: she bought a $1 mill dump to keep her mortgage alive. When prices correct, dumps will correct most.

“Unfortunately for Whyte, her extra efforts didn’t pay off in time…she ended up buying a house “sitting in the market that nobody wanted.”

She paid $1 million for a three-bedroom fixer-upper that she figures will need $200,000 in renovations.

“It literally looks like a mobile home dropped on a slab,” admits Whyte. “It’s not your dream house.”

#99 OXI in GREECE !! on 09.07.15 at 12:47 am

Even economic bear economist David Madani has changed his tune. “August’s employment gain of 12,000 was better than most had expected, thanks mainly to a hiring spree in the public sector. This is more evidence supporting our view that the economy likely returned to positive growth in the third quarter,” he says.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

What loser company would hire this guy? Hire public sector workers is positive growth? So ah…..where does the money come from to pay all these people? From the shrinking private sector?

David Madani <—————– YOU'RE FIRED

#100 S.Bby on 09.07.15 at 12:48 am

#71 stage1dave
Then look at deluded people like this:
http://vancouver.craigslist.ca/nvn/cto/5208480632.html
$25,000 for a Datsun

http://vancouver.craigslist.ca/van/cto/5209104893.html
$8,000 for an old RX7

Greed and madness is a bad combination.

#101 Joe2.0 on 09.07.15 at 1:47 am

Re 85.
Stats for Vancouver.

#102 Moses71 on 09.07.15 at 1:59 am

To #61 post
Aaaand don’t forget the futures contracts up soon when some felt a little more positive about oil prices rebounding by this fall. This was buoying a few companies until now.
We will see…

#103 Mark on 09.07.15 at 2:23 am

“Garth is likely correct again.”

Will you take a posting holiday Trollstoy if you’re proven to be incorrect in your view that the BoC will not lower policy rates at their next announcement (on Wednesday)?

I’ve committed to not posting for 2 weeks if the BoC doesn’t implement a policy rate cut. Will you put your proverbial currency in this forum on the line if you’re wrong? Or are you all troll, no action?

#104 cynically on 09.07.15 at 2:26 am

#28 pinstripe — sorry to disappoint you but Toronto and Vancouver are not “world class” cities just because they have very high-priced real estate. This ridiculous term has come to mean much more than costly real estate and both cities lack much of the criteria recognized for it. However Toronto with its large population, business development, culture and sports is getting up there but Vancouver will remain only one of the most beautiful cities in the world and no more so just let the chambers of commerce and real estate boards of both cities believe otherwise.

#105 Tony on 09.07.15 at 3:02 am

Re: #69 Grey Man on 09.06.15 at 10:13 pm

The debt per capita is a lot lower here than in America. The long term debt in America should increase exponentially in future years assuring a total collapse of the U.S. dollar. Unless that changes our dollar should push through par eventually. I’d guess around 3 to 4 years. The world’s reserve currency should change to a basket of world currencies in about 3 to 4 years.

#106 Tony on 09.07.15 at 3:18 am

Re: #62 Llewelyn on 09.06.15 at 9:35 pm

If unemployment in America was still measured the way it was way back in the Clinton era the official unemployment rate in America today would come in at about 23 percent. That’s what all this talk about raising rates in America is just that, talk.

#107 Nagraj on 09.07.15 at 3:30 am

I share #78 RALPH CRAMDOWN’s point of view, except that I think “Panic of 2015” is too strong, so far it’s more like Fear of 2015. But panic may very well be in the cards.

Dare we think the unthinkable: that Q3 GDP in Canada comes in at zero or negative.

Ralph says “I understand how a gaggle of bank economists are loath to yell Fire! in a crowded credit market … ”
I think of bank economists as a pack of “yellow running dogs” and of the current PMO as Canada’s “court camarilla”. (Delightful Commie terminology.) And of Canadian MSM as “palace press”.

GT writes “Looks like we’ve hit bottom in Canada, but will know for sure Wednesday … ”
Maybe we haven’t hit bottom. Definitely, Wed will be interesting.

Outsiders: Shedlock warned ages ago that Canada is heading into Recession, and Wolf Richter does an excellent job of trashing Canadian optimism.

#108 Ken Lovegrove on 09.07.15 at 5:22 am

There are now a whole generation of people that are rich (or think they are rich), not because they went out into the great wide world and started a business, but because they could borrow money cheaply and get a mortgage. They were lucky. This Lady is a good example. No one should be surprised by these people.

#109 David on 09.07.15 at 6:51 am

Kate does not make the cut when it comes to worthy victims.

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/09/04/office-tower-bubble-calgary-alberta-canada-turns-into-office-tower-glut/

#110 courage and poo on 09.07.15 at 6:58 am

Finally the energy sector will stop hogging professional services.

BTW, i like Garth’s attitude, bitter cynicism and all, what’s not to like?

#111 VH on 09.07.15 at 7:31 am

“The Fed will increase this autumn.”

You keep saying it and while you do, I’ll keep telling you that you’re absolutely wrong in that prediction. The whole US eekonomy is a hugely inflated bubble. Raising interest rates, even by a shred, would be the pin that pricks that bubble. Honestly Garth, you have got to stop regurgitating the BS you’re collecting from the likes of Bloomberg, CNBC, BNN or MSNBC. Here are more examples of what those aforementioned presstitutes happily obfuscate:

‘Why The New Car Bubble’s Days Are Numbered’

Link: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-06/why-new-car-bubbles-days-are-numbered

‘MOAR Debt!’

Link: https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=230635

‘Employment Report: Hmmm….’

Quoting: “…the gains continue to happen, on-balance, in lower-skilled no-degree-required positions — which are also lower paid.

In addition, and this is deeply troubling, the only group among non-disabled persons who had a participation rate increase on a comparative basis were seniors 65 and over. Non-disabled persons among both men and women younger than 65 lost jobs on a participation-rate basis.”

Link: https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=230630

#112 Llewelyn on 09.07.15 at 7:57 am

# 63 Grey Man

You have no idea how relieved I am to discover that there is at least one other Canadian citizen paying attention to anomalies related to the unemployment rate in the United States. Several months ago I pointed out that the rapid increase in the number of American citizens that require assistance from government to purchase food seemed at odds with claims that the economy was booming.

I also pointed out that social entitlements were the primary reason why all governments in the United States would incur deficits of more than $600 billion in 2015.

Garth told me to stop obsessing.

You do not have to be a statistician to realize that adjusting the size of the official labour force will have a significant impact on the official unemployment rate. It is not really an obsession to ask what 94 million employment aged citizens in the United States are doing other than lining up for nutrition supplements.

When over 37% of the total employment aged population is being excluded from the official labour force, and this ratio is actually increasing, I have trouble marching behind the Sgt. Pepper’s Productivity Pontificating Band.

#113 maxx on 09.07.15 at 8:02 am

I. Don’t. Believe. Commercial. Nor. Central. Bank. “Communications”. Any. Longer.
Engineering. Of. Sheeple. Behaviour.

There. Is. A. Recession.
Government. Hiring. Is. Irrelevant.
Dropping. Rates. Makes. No. Difference.
Simply. Causes. More. Macroeconomic. Damage. For. A. Much. Longer. Period. Of. Time.

Stop. Borrowing.
And. Grow. Rich.

#114 Raise a Cup to Jerry Bance :) on 09.07.15 at 8:16 am

Garth, the entire Harper team salutes you and your readers. We are the team that will move Canada forward, not those inexperienced lefties.

We truly have respect for Canadians, taxpayers, customers all.

Go on, have a sip everyone!

#115 foggy on 09.07.15 at 8:32 am

1. Are Canadians so isolated from the real problems of the world that, without shame, we would complain about having a million in cash? Yet another example of how great our quality of life is when this is what motivates us to write up a placard and call in the media.

2. How does hiring 12,000 more public sector employees support the view that there will be positive growth in the 4th quarter, other than 12,000 more paychecks being spent? Governments hire regardless of future GDP projections. Unfortunately, the money governments continue to borrow to pay in part for public sector employees (and their pensions) continues to add to the ever increasing debt load of all Canadians.

#116 Millmech on 09.07.15 at 8:32 am

You would have thought that Goebbel TV would have had this as their headlining story for the next week.Imagine a million dollars and being homeless the horrors of living in Vancouver.

#117 Kaganovich on 09.07.15 at 9:05 am

Tony, Llewelyn
https://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2015/09/06/the-un-recovery-94-million-not-in-labor-force-is-60-percent-of-the-civilian-labor-force/

The people aren’t chanting ‘reee-cov-reee’ loud enough.

#118 Mf on 09.07.15 at 9:13 am

#42 Gregor Samsa on 09.06.15 at 7:02 pm

“Ashamed of your country?”

Your post basically puts the blame for what is happening in Syria on Canada. Ever heard of Isis/Assad/Saudi Arabia/Iran/Russia?

The opposition parties used that poor boy as a political pawn (really think they care?). its laughable hearing so many here waver in the wind on what they and who they support support, conveniently ignoring the origins of the conflict.

Harper still has a silent majority. I think it will be another minority government for the cons. This whole thing may work to his advantage (hopefully).

Mf

#119 maxx on 09.07.15 at 10:01 am

#57 Snowboid on 09.06.15 at 8:42 pm

“My latest WTF moment was thinking I may get new tires for the beast before we head south. Best price for the tires I wanted mounted in Kelowna $ 1200 for four, at the local tire shop in Phoenix $ 650 – both prices in CAD.

Rant off/”

No. Your rant is good. Very good. Keep ranting.

We get royally ripped off here in Canaduh. Next time we need tires, we are heading south. It also grates that oil is a mere fraction of its price last year, yet there is practically no difference at the pumps.

I have no territorial loyalty when it comes to spending. The lowest price wins- every single time. Better prices in the U.S. means it gets my business.

I buy second-hand in Canaduh and new in the U.S. (on sale of course!).

Consumers are treated like crap in this country.

#120 Jerry Bance, REALTOR® on 09.07.15 at 10:11 am

Well, friends, you may have heard I am no longer a Conservative candidate. Let me explain.

Stephen met with me this morning, with his wonderful assistant Ray Novak.

They explained to me that my brilliant candour was too honest and classy for the current campaign. While the Harper Government definitely plans to pee in the cups of all Canadians, my very direct approach to stating this will be seen by some as too forthright, given that weaselly Justin’s tax tricks.

I understand completely. That guy would pick his nose in public to get a vote. Disgusting!

They have wished me well in my future endeavours (you too, Steve!).

Very kindly, they have inspired me to take up a career in residential real estate, where everyone knows you’re peeing in their cup and even asks for a second serving. They even care if the cup will match their new granite kitchen!!

I have found my true calling – thank you Stephen!

#121 Ralph Cramdown on 09.07.15 at 10:18 am

#112 Llewelyn — “It is not really an obsession to ask what 94 million employment aged citizens in the United States are doing other than lining up for nutrition supplements.”

Some of them are sixteen years old, and still in high school.
Some are twenty, and in college.
Some are sixty-four — or ninety-four, happily retired in Miami.
Some are happy homemakers.
Some are too disabled to work, but not institutionalized.

All of the above are counted as part of the US labour force.

#122 Doug in London on 09.07.15 at 10:29 am

Dear Kate:
What, you cashed in the winning lottery ticket and you’re complaining that if you buy another ticket it probably won’t be a winner? What’s wrong with you? Keep those lottery winnings and rent now like any sensible person would do.

#123 Westernman on 09.07.15 at 10:37 am

” looks like we’ve hit the bottom in Canada”
WRONG again, Garth. when next spring finally arrives we’ll look back and consider this the good ol’ days..
And of course there will be no rate hike … the economy, such as we call this slow motion train wreck, is on the critical list now so ANY rate hike will spell the end – so no rate hike … there’ so now you know…

#124 go high-tech on 09.07.15 at 10:41 am

This software just made available for free, go high-tech on labor day :)

ESPlannerBASIC Canada’s Top Personal Financial Planning Software provided free to all Canadians
by The School of Public Policy, University of Calgary.

Video demo:
http://canada.esplanner.com/node/184

http://canada.esplanner.com/

#125 Frank Blood on 09.07.15 at 10:47 am

Re:#116 Millmech- “You would have thought that Goebbel TV …..” Hahahahahhahaha… Very clever.

#126 Shawn on 09.07.15 at 11:23 am

Dear Labour Force Participation Rate Alarmists

Llewelyn at 112 stated:

“When over 37% of the total employment aged population is being excluded from the official labour force…”

Kaganovich just above is also apparently alarmed about this.

*************************************

While spreading alarm about the labour force participation rate in the U.S. would you be kind enough to point out that the “labour force” uses a definition that counts everyone age 15 and older as part of the labour force?

Are you really alarmed that high school students are not working and not looking for work? University students?

That octogenarians are not looking for work?

Prisoners? (of which there are not a few)

Those unable to work for various medical reasons?

That well-off retirees on pension are not looking for work.

That stay-at-home-by-choice parents are not looking for work?

There are been no change in the method of calculating the official unemployment rate in the U.S. in the past few years and it has fallen from about 9% to 5.1%.

There is no perfect way to count the unemployed but it is not unreasonable to exclude from the “unemployed” ranks those not even looking for work.

Be alarmed no more. Alarm others do more, and if you must then give the definition of this labor force.

P.S. By your alarmist views what was the unemployment rate in the mythical 50’s when it only mythically took one income to live a mythical grand middle class life? 50%?

#127 Retired Boomer - WI on 09.07.15 at 11:44 am

I hope everybody is enjoying the holiday.

Yes, the US has a large debt. Canada is hardly debt free.

If we would stop playing the world’s ‘policeman’ and the other war crap, maybe we wouldn’t have such high debt.
Oh, right that military-industrial complex president Eisenhower warned about back in 1959 is merely much more entrenched like any good cancer.

Where does it end? Beats me, but we all need to keep our eyes open, read with discernment, and never be surprised by fast changing -incredible-stories.

Syrian refugees…. sad, but … Why should they be headed for western Europe, not their ‘arab brother states’ next door? HHHMM..???

#128 Nora Lenderby on 09.07.15 at 11:44 am

#118 Mf on 09.07.15 at 9:13 am
Harper still has a silent majority. I think it will be another minority government for the cons. This whole thing may work to his advantage (hopefully).

Your reasoning may just as easily point to a coalition government of other parties. (I have no idea but I am notorious for soft-heartedly feeling sorry for losers*. I am starting to feel sorry for Mr. H.)

As for Syria imploding, there is a demographic and climate story at the root of this. The rebellion in Syria started as demonstrations against the government caused by poverty and high food prices (serious drought, spring of 2011).

I agree that this is not the fault of Canada’s government, but they have not been helping much. Sending a small military force is not really useful or significant. Probably better to take more refugees.

And perhaps we should be ready to take even more as there are a number of other states on the brink of failure.

* Let him who has never peed in a coffee cup, let him cast the first stone.

#129 auto sales on 09.07.15 at 12:01 pm

@111 True dat…last year mb dealers were pulling ahead leases 6-8 months early to make sales qoutas. This yr they pulling 8-12 month’s ahead. If that ain’t robbing from the future I dunno what is. Also preowned sales way down. ..with low rates and incentives to buy new why buy used. MB cpo cars 0 percent finance and sales slowing. Conclusion like other sectors the automobile bizz are due for a slump

#130 Nora Lenderby on 09.07.15 at 12:01 pm

#117 Kaganovich on 09.07.15 at 9:05 am
Tony, Llewelyn
https://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2015/09/06/the-un-recovery-94-million-not-in-labor-force-is-60-percent-of-the-civilian-labor-force/
The people aren’t chanting ‘reee-cov-reee’ loud enough.

I don’t know if it is significant or not. What are people doing? My guess is, apart from ageing slackers like me, that they are doing something else other than measurably waged work.

Don’t worry, they’re not all running meth labs or about to riot and take your stuff. Some will be minding people’s kids, cleaning houses and doing yardwork for senior citizens and the gentry, looking after their own families. Selling baked goods or fruit at the local market. Suffering. Getting by.

If and when they can get better paid work, they’ll take it, imo.

#131 TurnerNation on 09.07.15 at 12:05 pm

I’m always a bit suspicious when our Tax Farm farmers open the gates and say You’re free go.
Berlin wall fell…then EU created an economic meltdown. No so free.

“They’ll stone you when you’re young and able…”

#132 stage1dave on 09.07.15 at 12:23 pm

#76 common sense
#100 S.Bby

Good points…and scary links. I’ve had the opportunity to talk to a few (concerned) shop owners, tradesman, gearheads, whatever, this year about the state of the car “hobby” & restoration biz, & the consensus is nobody knows where it will be in a decade. Pretty scary thought…if you have employees, buildings, etc.

The “generational” thingie has expired…anyone who bought a 69 SS chevelle new is retired, & probably isn’t thinking about replacing it. We’ve moved on another couple gens now, & no one is certain there will be a hard-core segment of enuff size to keep the car hobby relevant in years to come. Probably not enuff to keep it bubbling along at current (or even recent) levels, anyway.

From my own perspective, I see very little new blood entering…car shows these days are pretty much gen x’ers, boomers, & wrinklies.

Plus, Bobby Orr was eligible for OAS a couple years back, and I remind myself of that every time I meet a youngster looking for a Crosby or Ovechkin RC in a BGS 10 holder…

Like all other peeps that are growing older, I’m pretty much deafened by the gradually increasing roar of my own irrelevance!

Time to start saving for a Tesla & get my hands on some Green Party campaign literature, I guess. And keep renting…

#133 Nora Lenderby on 09.07.15 at 12:29 pm

#126 Retired Boomer – WI on 09.07.15 at 11:44 am
I hope everybody is enjoying the holiday.
You too, big guy. Hotter than heck on the dock today :-)

Syrian refugees…. sad, but … Why should they be headed for western Europe, not their ‘arab brother states’ next door? HHHMM..???

They are in other states nearby. Lebanon (a country of 4M people) has 1M refugees. Turkey has more. The whole thing is made worse by the fact that already residing in Syria were waves of refugees (Palestinian, Iraqi) from previous decades. Syrian population was about 17M. Demographcs of the area, huge numbers of under-30’s, who don’t want to be drafted and get their bollocks shot away. They don’t want their kids or their families to be killed. You hear it all the time, they want peace, and they don’t see much of that in the Middle East, anywhere.

Consider other previous diasporas. It’s complicated. Once people get on the move, it’s hard to stop them.

Irish famine, for example: many, many people went to England. Not much welcome, but some got work doing crap jobs. Their descendants live there today. Some decided to go to North America, Australia, and other places, in worse circumstances than today’s refugees. Many died; in Ireland, on the way elsewhere, and when they arrived.

I would argue that the Irish diaspora, nearly 150 years later, has been a good thing for their descendants and the countries they settled in.

Causes: sudden population increase, crop failures, government failure, war.

We are past the time when this can be stopped. (You can donate to UNHCR).

#134 Smartalox on 09.07.15 at 12:43 pm

Re: Kate the ‘homeless’ millionaire

FYI, with the recent BoC rate cuts, Kate was probably facing a mortgage break fee of between $50,000 and $65,000, depending on how much time and principal remained on her original loan.

So even if she profited by $200, 000 after paying her Realtor’s commission, she probably couldn’t afford to pay the break fee.

All this, on top of the point that she and her husband sold their place because they felt the need to ‘downsize’ – probably because they couldn’t afford THOSE payments, either.

#135 Jerry Bance - Trickle Down Economist on 09.07.15 at 1:00 pm

Urine a lot of trouble if you think some stupid leaked story will derail Team Harper.

Don’t let those NDPee’ers piss you off enough to vote for them!

And you can still make your campaign donation to Team Harper today – Bladder Late than Never!!!

#136 OttawaMike on 09.07.15 at 1:25 pm

Nora Lenderby
* Let him who has never peed in a coffee cup, let him cast the first stone.

———-

Hey you stole my tweet.

It should be cast the first kidney stone though in keeping w the theme

#137 Retired Boomer - WI on 09.07.15 at 1:34 pm

#133 Nora Lenderby

Thanks for the thoughtful reply. I had totally forgot about the refugees from years gone by. YIKES!!

We are headed off to visit friends from TN who are up here visiting nearby. Dinner out, maybe a trip to a nearby casino, the lake, who knows?? Rain this am now getting warm. Will be a decent day after all.

Enjoy the heat, think in 3 months we will want it all back!

#138 Jerry McGuire on 09.07.15 at 1:43 pm

“Carlos, Richmond BC: “Good 3+ bdrm rentals in Richmond under $2k/month are almost impossible to find around here. Especially ones that take pets.”

They’re out there. I’m in a 3 bedroom townhouse in Vancouver South, with a cat, for $1750/month and a view of the river.”

Yeah…but that strip along the slope of marine Drive is probably the crappiest location in the city anyone could choose to live….no access to shopping..transpo…entertainment…freaking foggy cold river air….dumpy industrial mixed residential is ghetto…crappy little side roads overgrown with blackberry bushes. It’s a good place to take a hooker…smoke dope…or dump a body…but live along the Fraser….no way…there’s a reason why it’s slightly cheaper…..it’s like living under a freeway overpass. The same 3 bed t/h in Richmond is $2750 and up because it’s got everything easily accessible and modern first world living. Sorry for you.

#21 Retired Loser….any Canadian who’s sympathetic to Obama is an obvious malcontent.

#35 Mocha … “In the used truck auction market, it’s exactly as you are claiming: US block auction buyers are easily outbidding Canadians for the high end vehicles and then taking them back to the states for a solid profit on the used car lots. Canadian buyers have a 25% “handicap”.

You’re right to point that out. Canadians by the thousands are losing their jobs and homes because Americans can buy us out easily and we can no longer compete. The used car business employs hundreds of thousands of people directly and indirectly and ‘The Poloz Peso’ is killing jobs ad hoc in many private sector businesses.

The idea that we should be sucking up to tourists for tips is an egregious affront.

#139 JimH on 09.07.15 at 2:00 pm

#65 Mark on 09.06.15 at 9:48 pm
…”The ‘experts’ are failing to grasp the sort of carnage unfurling in the housing market, employment market, and the general economy. No wonder they come to the bizarre conclusion that the future won’t feature more rate cuts.
As it stands, the BoC is way behind the curve in providing appropriately stimulative policy. Housing prices have been stagnant to falling for over 2 years now. Overcapacity reigns supreme in the key sectors of economic growth for the past decade. Despite a 25% drop in the Canadian dollar, domestic demand is so weak that there has been no impact on StatsCan-calculated inflation.”
===================================
More of Mark’s misinformation and total hogwash!
Job growth is currently in an uptrend:
3Q econ growth is clear and obvious with GDP grt of 1.5%; per capita GDP trending higher; The negative GDP grt Q1 (-.2) and Q2 (-.1) annual rate expected to rise to +1.6 Q3 and +1.8 Q4.
Since April 2015, inflation has risen every month from 0.8 to 1.3 : core inflation 2.4
Balance of trade improving from a low of -$3,853M to -$811M June -$593M July (still negative, but the trend is obvious)
Canada’s new housing price index rising from 111.6 to 113.0 /y/y
CPI ballooned from 124.3 in Jan 2015 to 127.3 currently.

This data from http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/indicators and based mostly on StatsCan, which you incorrectly make reference to.

“The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.3% in the 12 months to July, after increasing 1.0% in June.”
Source? (http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/150821/dq150821a-eng.htm)

Mark, you silly little gerbil! You accuse the “experts” of ignoring facts?

Mark; in the past, I have accused you of being a poseur, an outright liar, a sophist, a phony and a tireless generator of false information and mis-information.

Please, would you take a break and cease constantly struggling to prove me right?

#140 Snowboid on 09.07.15 at 2:04 pm

#84 prairie person on 09.06.15 at 11:35 pm…

You are right about avoiding bad areas, but it’s no different than any large Canadian city.
Guns are an issue in the US, however the area our winter abode is located has a much lower crime rate than Kelowna. Go figure!

We’ve had our US neighbours and friends visit us over the last five years, both here and when we lived in Victoria – and I’m embarrassed to say that twice they were victims of crime – once in our own driveway in Victoria and once in downtown Kelowna!

#141 DisgustMadeMePost on 09.07.15 at 2:05 pm

Trickle down!

Hahahasnorthahahaarr

F u n n y… Disgusting but funny.

Yup, hello Canada, meet your candidates.

#142 AfterTheHouseSold on 09.07.15 at 2:30 pm

#129 auto sales
“pulling ahead leases to make sales quotas…Also pre owned sales way down…the automobile bizz are due for a slump”

I recently suggested Chrysler as a contender for Garths assertion that we will soon hear of an industry collapse.
On Sunday Sergio Marchionne of Fiat Chrysler again announced that he would like to pursue a merger with
GM. GM is not interested. Given Chryslers recent crappy numbers in Canada, could something be afoot?

This, along with the struggling used car industry would certainly qualify as an industry collapse.

#143 jess on 09.07.15 at 2:47 pm

‘Speed of Wealth’ founder McKelvy indicted in alleged $54M Ponzi scheme
Sep 4, 2015, 7:37am MDT Updated Sep 4, 2015, 2:43pm MDT

…”According to Thursday’s indictment, “McKelvy taught investors to liquidate all their assets such as mutual funds and 401k plans, to take out as many loans out as possible, such as home mortgages and credit card debt, and invest all those funds in Mantria”

http://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/indictment-charges-three-people-running-54-million-gree

#144 Bottoms_Up on 09.07.15 at 2:50 pm

#124 go high-tech on 09.07.15 at 10:41 am
——————
Awesome thanks for posting.

#145 jess on 09.07.15 at 2:53 pm

Press Release
Walter Investment Management Corp. Pays More than $29 Million for the Alleged Submission of False Claims Related to Servicing Reverse Mortgage Loans

http://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/walter-investment-management-corp-pays-more-29-million-alleged-submission-false-claims

#146 45north on 09.07.15 at 2:56 pm

This happened about the time that little boy washed up dead on a beach and thousands of Syrian refugees, also homeless, were being waterbombed and beaten by countries that don’t want them.

Trudeau requests meeting with Harper, Mulcair on Syrian refugee crisis

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/life/trudeau+requests+meeting+with+harper+mulcair+syrian+refugee+crisis/11345001/story.html

40 years ago our parish brought over a Cambodian family. We rented a house for them. I dragged up some big old rugs from the basement out to the trash. This is Justin Trudeau’s legitimate role: to haul up old rugs from the basement.

#147 Mark on 09.07.15 at 3:24 pm

“From my own perspective, I see very little new blood entering…car shows these days are pretty much gen x’ers, boomers, & wrinklies. “

True — these are the only people in the economy who can actually afford to participate at this time. As a counter-argument though, the collapse of the Canadian housing bubble and the inevitable inflation of another bubble should redistribute wealth to a whole different set of actors who are likely to be far narrower in scope and thus far wealthier than created by the current housing bubble.

These individuals are likely to be significant consumers of higher-end luxury goods, higher-end services, higher-class travel, etc.. The US classic car restoration / enthusiast community over the past few decades has been so vibrant on account of a fairly wealthy upper middle-class existing to fund it. I don’t see why such won’t emerge in Canada in the future as a new wealthy upper-class emerges.

#148 Nora Lenderby on 09.07.15 at 3:34 pm

#138 Jerry McGuire on 09.07.15 at 1:43 pm
#21 Retired Loser….any Canadian who’s sympathetic to Obama is an obvious malcontent…

Are you calling Mr. Retired-in-Wisconsin a loser? Blimey…I’ll have to ask you to step outside where I’ll sing Kumbayah at yah, laddie.

Am I missing the irony or something? I do have sympathy for poor Mr. O. and his efforts to change the unchangeable, or correct the incorrigible, if you will. Every idea is all fine until it hits the real world.

You’re right to point that out. Canadians by the thousands are losing their jobs and homes because Americans can buy us out easily and we can no longer compete. The used car business employs hundreds of thousands of people directly and indirectly and ‘The Poloz Peso’ is killing jobs ad hoc in many private sector businesses. The idea that we should be sucking up to tourists for tips is an egregious affront.

Er…used cars? Oh, you gotta be trollin’ me, dude. Love it!

#149 westcdn on 09.07.15 at 3:50 pm

My left hand says I should be rich, my right does not. Maybe I should keep them apart?

#150 Nagraj on 09.07.15 at 4:06 pm

(Never fails: when the mkt gets hysterical I’m, thru no fault of my own, someplace else. This week I’ll be visiting family in the States.)

For those of you interested in the very short term: the classic bearish pennant on the SPX implies a fast trip down to the tune of about 100pts. That would be, roughly, 800 to a thousand pts on the DJIA. Forget correction, it’s a bear.
Even if you’re a disciplined long term investor, you’ll find the media reaction interesting.

#151 Mark on 09.07.15 at 5:01 pm

“Mark, you silly little gerbil!”

Ordinarily this would be enough of an uncalled for remark to have me ignore you. But this time I won’t.

““The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.3% in the 12 months to July, after increasing 1.0% in June.””

From your own quote, CPI growth over 12 months significantly less than the BoC policy target of 2% annualized. In an environment of 25% currency devaluation against our largest trading partner in the same interval. That data point alone should tell you everything you need to know about how healthy demand is in the Canadian economy, and the necessity of future policy rate cuts.

Employment-wise, sure, the job boards are full of jobs (especially in light of the recent TFW crackdown), but its mostly minimum wage crap. Manufacturing isn’t taking off in any meaningful way on account of collapsing consumer demand. Face it, the consumer is tapped out and not only will consumer spending not be a growth contributor, it is likely to contract from growth as consumers concentrate on repaying debt. A classic sign of the deflationary collapse that is unfolding.

#152 Repent on 09.07.15 at 5:38 pm

#146 45north on 09.07.15 at 2:56 pm

40 years ago our parish brought over a Cambodian family. We rented a house for them. I dragged up some big old rugs from the basement out to the trash. This is Justin Trudeau’s legitimate role: to haul up old rugs from the basement.

Don’t be ridiculous… you are old enough now.

#153 kommykim on 09.07.15 at 5:42 pm

RE: #146 45north on 09.07.15 at 2:56 pm
This is Justin Trudeau’s legitimate role: to haul up old rugs from the basement.

Well, it’s better than Harper’s rug in the attic.

#154 Fed Speak on 09.07.15 at 6:25 pm

A Fed rate hike will happen only because the insurance and pension companies are screaming.

A rate hike of .25% causing that much anxiety?

I say no rate hikes again, ever. New rounds of QE from the Fed once the EU has shot its bolt, and QE from the Chinese.

#155 Vundo on 09.07.15 at 6:36 pm

Don’t worry, Kate, Uncle Steve is in your corner: http://www.conservative.ca/cpc/supporting-home-ownership/?sig=8d94a7d4

Don’t we all wish we could realize the dream?

#156 Andrew Woburn on 09.07.15 at 8:04 pm

#119 maxx on 09.07.15 at 10:01 am

We get royally ripped off here in Canaduh. Next time we need tires, we are heading south. It also grates that oil is a mere fraction of its price last year, yet there is practically no difference at the pumps.
===================

You may not need to drive anywhere. Three years ago I needed mid-range tires for an older sports car. I decided some Korean tires met my price/performance need. The best price I found in Canada was $800 per tire plus tax and installation. I was amazed to find that US dealer TireRack.com would deliver from Utah to a designated installer in West Van for $600 per including duty, tax, freight and installation. My only extra was $30 per for balancing.

#157 Andrew Woburn on 09.07.15 at 8:16 pm

Some people think this is an urban legend, but apparently not. On the other hand, can you blame millennials if this is what they get for parenting?

-Leave mom at home: Why Canadian business owners are having such a hard time hiring.

“Most surprising to me was the number of business owners who have had a candidate joined by mom in the interview. More than a few said mom did all the talking during the interview taking helicopter parenting to a new level.”

http://business.financialpost.com/entrepreneur/cfib/leave-mom-at-home-why-canadian-business-owners-are-having-such-a-hard-time-hiring?__lsa=1c1c-f699

#158 4 AM Sunrise on 09.07.15 at 11:40 pm

#157 Andrew Woburn on 09.07.15 at 8:16 pm

Not an urban legend at all when you take into account the other urban legends about universities hiring security to keep helicopter parents off campus.

#159 Armando on 09.09.15 at 1:39 pm

“August’s employment gain of 12,000 was better than most had expected, thanks mainly to a hiring spree in the public sector”. Well isn’t that nice – more public employees! I’ll bet 6,000 of them are digging holes, while the other 6,000 are filling them up again (I would prefer to be one of those doing the filling). So I guess Garth must right – nothing but Blue Skies as far as the eye can see!