Racing the rats

Booze modified

Next Wednesday morning at ten Stephen Poloz will visit the National Press Theatre in Ottawa and make a big interest rate announcement on behalf of the Bank of Canada. “No change,” he’ll say. And the prime minister will heave a sigh of relief.

After all, it’s been one kick in right-honourable teeth after another. StatsCan revealed the country slipped into recession, reminding voters of why they feel pissy. Then RBC said housing affordability has taken a big drop with hot Vancouver getting ‘risky’, reminding people they’re not getting ahead. Then a drowned Syrian child half a world away, epitomizing tragedy, was linked to a Canadian cabinet minister. During a federal election campaign, any one of these is tough to survive politically.

So at least the central bank won’t make it worse by saying the economy is so pooched it must make money even cheaper for the third time in a year. That’s the thinking right now among economists, most of whom believe the country is already starting to emerge from half a year of negative growth.

A lot depends on Friday morning and the latest jobs numbers – the best indication whether or not the US recovery’s still motoring ahead. If it is, if oil prices recover a bit and China doesn’t blow up, then an interesting scenario is likely to develop. The expectation as I write this is that America cranked out at least 213,000 more new hires last month, consistent with the past year. (Update: 173,000 new positions added and jobless rate dips to 5.1%) Add in that huge GDP number of a few days ago (3.7% growth) and it means the Fed can raise its key rate for the first time in a decade. That could happen September 17th, October 28th or December 16th. But it will happen by the end of the year.

Remember, the Bank of Canada has more than a 90% track record of following the Fed, and our bond market is even more closely correlated. In other words, everybody should expect five-year, fixed-rate mortgages to cost more this autumn. The fact the Bank of Canada will not be raising its rate next week – despite the crapstorm our economy has been in – should tell you something. This is it. Rates go down no more. They start to rise.

What have Canadians been doing to prepare?

Gorging themselves on new debt, of course! While inflation is running at just over 1% and wages in Toronto and Vancouver have actually slipped 2.8% in recent years, your friends and idiot relatives increased their borrowing by 4.9% in the last year, says RBC. Together we now owe $1.84 trillion (a trillion is a thousand times a billion).

The bank says we’ll shortly establish a new record for overall debt, at more than 164% of household income, as consumer spending continues to surge despite the oil crisis, lousy job creation, recession and Justin Bieber crying in shame at the VMAs. In short, cheap money’s done nothing but encourage more borrowing and more spending. People have not used it to pay off loans faster, just make them bigger.

“Canadians ‘spent’ their interest savings on mortgage debt, not consumption,” says a bank economist. So what Canadians saved on interest payments, they peed away on higher house prices and epic mortgages. And that brings me to Bonnie.

“I was hoping you could give me some advice on whether or not we should purchase a house now or hold off,” she writes me. (By the way, I do not make these letters up. I’m not that good.)

“We sold our home in the suburbs of Vancouver (Coquitlam) a few months ago for $720,000, after buying it in June, 2009 for $538,000 (we took your advice then about purchasing a home in a downward market). We sold within a few day thinking we could just upgrade to a new home with a purchase price of around $900,000.  But we did not realize how crazy the housing market was and had lost out on several homes due to a bidding war.”

Bonnie says they ended up in a rental house, “that we like a lot” which is costing $2,000 a month – no stretch on a household income of $155,000. “But I feel a bit desperate to get back into the housing market even though I know this is crazy.” Thus, Bonnie is considering a $700,000 mortgage with $200,000 down (if they find the right place) which she says will cost about $3,600 a month.

Of course, that’s just for the mortgage at current low rates. Add in the opportunity cost of the down payment, insurance, property tax and maintenance, and the monthly soars past $4,000. So why would a family double their housing costs at a time when interest rates are about to start a slow ascent, and real estate risk (especially in YVR) is through the roof?

“I guess I’m getting caught up in the rat race,” she says. And truer words were never spoken.

The big jump in house prices – even while sales levels are unimpressive – in Toronto and Vancouver last month has pushed those markets further into the red zone, making them outliers in Canada. For example, sales plunged 26% in Calgary last month, with similar misery across all of Alberta.

In Atlantic Canada listings are piling up on top of each other and asking prices are in a steady decline. And remember that runaway housing boom that flatlanders came here to crow about a couple of years ago? Pfft. Here’s the latest report from the Saskatoon realtors:

“August represented the eighth straight month with a year over year reduction in the number of home sales in Saskatoon. This, coupled with a continued elevation in inventory levels equates to a buyers’ market. Currently there are just over 2,000 residential listings on the market in Saskatoon, an increase of 26% from just 12 months ago. Considering that there were 329 sales in August, it would take 6 months to liquidate the current inventory of homes. Year to date 2,812 homes changed hands, a 12% reduction from last year. The sales to active listing ratio for August was 39% significantly lower than the five year average of 54%.

“This suggests that only four out of every ten homes placed on the market will result in a sale. Meanwhile the average home required 50 days to sell compared to the five year average of 41 days “The reality is that our market is feeling the effects of slower economic times” comments Jason Yochim, CEO of the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS®. “If someone is serious about selling their home they need to sharpen their pencil regarding price to ensure a successful sale.” he adds.

“The number of sales are down in nearly every price range but most notably between $450,000 and $500,000 and $750,000 and $900,000. This reduction has also impacted the new home market where the number of housing starts are down significantly over 2014. Year to date single family housing starts totaled 510 representing a 28% reduction from 2014 while multi-family starts increased by 10% to 798 units.”

Now, take out the word ‘Saskatoon’ and insert your city.

It’s coming.

228 comments ↓

#1 Love my Kia on 09.03.15 at 6:28 pm

I think Rosemary Barton single-handedly put the cons back into 3rd place yesterday.

Beats the last guy who hosted by a country mile.

#2 JSS on 09.03.15 at 6:35 pm

The picture of that beautiful little boy lying face down dead in the sand leaves me sad.

RIP little guy. You a cutie.

#3 bdy sktrn on 09.03.15 at 6:36 pm

Now, take out the word ‘Saskatoon’ and insert your city.
——————————
saskawhere? aren’t there buildings in 416/604 that are bigger than the ‘toon?

china will keep van westside at a median near 3mil and continued spillover to the east side means even higher prices for slanty main/comm/sunrise specials

#4 Edmonton Fool on 09.03.15 at 6:40 pm

Calgary slides down list of hot job markets to #19, survey says

http://www.cbc.ca/m/news/canada/calgary/calgary-jobs-market-survey-1.3213983

#5 Drill Baby Drill on 09.03.15 at 6:41 pm

I see the Eurozone is going to get ASAP a new QE injection. They are going to need it to help many in the EU deal with the immigration flood.

As far as the topic of today, well most people just can’t help themselves.

#6 Danger Dan on 09.03.15 at 6:42 pm

Calling it a rat race is insulting to the rats, those noble creatures have much better sense when it comes to fleeing a sinking ship.

#7 it's coming on 09.03.15 at 6:42 pm

Supply demand fluctuation.

Commodities, stocks, real estate, labor market. Up and down cycles.

Markets do what markets are supposed to do. That’s why we have them.

Isn’t this what Capitalism is all about?

What’s the big deal?

#8 common sense on 09.03.15 at 6:43 pm

New jobs created in USA…what type? what wage? as compared to the mounting job losses in the US oil patch…

Everyone worried about their homes in Metro Toronto close to retirement or can cash out…move down to the Niagara Peninsula where there are no jobs but houses even in this inflated market are affordable by your standards….Miss the city you say?…We have Buffalo, NY minutes away where even with the dollar at $1.33 it’s still less expensive to eat out, do some selective shopping, have access to professional sports and an active arts scene….

And no…I’m not a realtor…

Sitting on 50% cash, 50% shorts…just waiting..

#9 BC Guy on 09.03.15 at 6:44 pm

Hey Garth, could you please try to explain why preferred shares are dropping so much in value?

I bought quite a few preferreds last year because they were “safe”, would hold their value give or take a percent, and pay between 4 and 5%.

Now, some of them are down 8 or 10% with no signs of coming back up. WTF?!

I regret buying them and wish I had bought some risky, high-flying tech or biotech stock instead. About the same downside risk, but a much, much higher upside reward.

#10 Loonie Watcher on 09.03.15 at 6:44 pm

Idiots.

That is all.

#11 MSM-Free Zone on 09.03.15 at 6:49 pm

“….And the prime minister will heave a sigh of relief……”
_________________________

A little premature, considering the Prime Manipulator’s popularity is plunging in the polls.

#12 Zorba on 09.03.15 at 6:53 pm

It’s caming,B I G T I M E !

#13 MoneyDriven on 09.03.15 at 6:55 pm

Canada in Recession, energy sector and commodities are suffering. MOST cities are adjusting the house sales and prices except Vancouver or Toronto. Could it be that we have different kind of economy here? or do I dare to say foreign money is running the show? Just to be clear, I do NOT think foreign INVESTMENT is that significant here. but foreign MONEY combine with low interest rate is the root of all evil.

New immigrant or foreigner who have family here or move their kids for education tend to buy houses with bloated prices from local. Locals get the money and buy something further east for themselves and give some “nest eggs” to their kid. End of the day most these locals are getting to bidding wars fueled by low interest rate and “nest eggs”.

Thanks again for your great blog. I read it everyday. PS i just sold my apartment. I agree with you and thank you for opening my eyes there :)

#14 The Real Pop Tart on 09.03.15 at 6:59 pm

I have lived in Victoria for nearly my whole adult life (13 years), in that time I have rented from three separate landlords, and through that entire time, no one has raised the rent on me. I stayed at one place for 7 years and it was $650 a month all included, that’s it, no extra, didn’t have to cut the lawn, water the garden, repaint the house… My partner and I now rent a much nicer suite, 3 years old, granite and stainless steel everything, heated bathroom floor… All for a measly $1125 a month with everything included (I mean everything!). Just got told after our first year there that they will not raise the rent at all as they want us to stick around. The most interesting thing about the renters market now is that it really feels like landlords with suites really value a good tenant and need them in there generating “income” so that they can afford to pay the mortgage. With the system we have in BC, renters have so much power and flexibility, why would you ever give that up for a mortgage? Trust me, I’d love to own a piece of land and build my own house on it, at these prices though, you’d be a fool to even do that. We will be seeing some great buys in 3-5 years, just enough time for us to be able buy something outright. Play the long game and don’t get caught up in the housing market today, just imagine the look your family and friends will have when you tell them the real deal you got!

Stay strong chachos!

#15 bdy sktrn on 09.03.15 at 6:59 pm

#6 Danger Dan on 09.03.15 at 6:42 pm
…. insulting to the rats, those noble creatures

——————————–
you mean filthy, garden wrecking, sh%t spewing disease vectors?

their only saving grace is the ease of nailing their furry necks in a well placed trap – SNAP!

#16 Mark on 09.03.15 at 7:03 pm

“Next Wednesday morning at ten Stephen Poloz will visit the National Press Theatre in Ottawa and make a big interest rate announcement on behalf of the Bank of Canada. “No change,” he’ll say. And the prime minister will heave a sigh of relief.”

Not a chance given how weak the data is, and that’s even without the benefit of the numbers in housing turning really bad (soon to come!). And I’ll take a 2 week time-out from here if the Bank of Canada fails to do what the data indicates it must to maintain its credibility and integrity, and cut the policy rate an additional 25bp.

The Canadian economy is running at a mere fraction of its capacity. Inflationary pressures are non-existent despite a 25%+ drop in the currency over the past year. Housing prices are in a gentle fall which looks to accelerate downwards. The stock market hasn’t provided an iota of return since its 2008 apex. Unemployment is accelerating. None of these factors support the BoC standing back and not cutting policy rates.

#17 Smartalox on 09.03.15 at 7:06 pm

The problem with debt is that once you have some, it’s more likely that you’ll pile on more.

I’ve been there: I accumulated debt, and though I made more than the monthly payments, I made up any shortfalls with more debt. The increases were incremental, but over time, they added up.

it wasn’t until I made a radical lifestyle change and disciplined myself that I began to see my debts retire. It took me 10 years, but now 5 years later, I can’t imagine how I lived like that.

#18 Freedom First on 09.03.15 at 7:08 pm

Yes. Going in the opposite direction of the majority has paid me well, and continues to do so.

I have another ear to the ground report from Alberta, where I currently reside. Alberta is the 4th Province I have lived in.

Well, as silly as is this may sound to me, there is many people who will probably think this looks like astute behavior. I have been talking with home owners who have lost their jobs in the oil and gas sector, who are putting money into extensive renovations to better their chances of selling their property (their words). People I know well enough to reply to this, I say perhaps you should list it right now, don’t wait, as winter is coming, and the economy in Alberta is in a worsening $hit$storm. I am glad to report their reactions have been very positive. I know for myself, in the past, I appreciated people who did the extensive renovations and replaced all the appliances for me before I bought their property for 50% off of what they paid several years before I bought. It’s all ok. It’s just business. I happily accept all consequences for everything I do and say, while avoiding self pity, blame and criticism. As always, Freedom First.

#19 common sense on 09.03.15 at 7:09 pm

Can anyone say the word : DEFLATION anytime in the next 2 years?

And yes Garth it will have a horrible impact on those with debt…

But not to those who made wise choices and lived within our means….

It’s going to be bittersweet to be told “it must be nice” to go on vacation, live stress free the next decade after years of “Why are you not buying bigger, more, etc,etc?”

Cycles, cycles, cycles…

#20 Vanecdotal on 09.03.15 at 7:09 pm

#3 bdy sktrn

True, for now… at least until the post-election policy changes come into effect. Election’s over in, what – 7 weeks? The game is changing, make hay while the sun shines.

Christy’s been awfully silent lately, not even an official statement on the recent announcement re: Feds cracking down on money laundering, FINTRAC irregularities, etc. Nada, zip. Those rumblings from CRA are also getting louder.

Time your market accordingly.

#21 common sense on 09.03.15 at 7:10 pm

Is it just me or is there a very strong Bear sentiment brewing here tonight???

#22 Smartalox on 09.03.15 at 7:12 pm

@ Mark: if the BoC cuts interest rates again, the optic will be ruinous to the Harper Campaign.

An interest rate cut will be viewed by many as an admission of failure in terms of stewardship of the economy. The resulting plunge in the value of the loonie is viewed by many (often incorrectly) as a loss of national pride – and a hit to Tory voters habits of cheap, all-inclusive vacationing in Mexico.

A rate cut will cost the Tories the election.

#23 DON on 09.03.15 at 7:17 pm

Late reply to Jen’s situation.

Having read other comments I was about to respond. But then the thought of a father losing his wife and two boys aged 5 and 3 hit me like a tidal wave.

I am from Gen X (44) and grew up slightly different from Boom and Y (I have one Gen X and two Y siblings). I have been called ‘wet behind the ears’ before as I always asked people WHY? I will never stoop to generational ranting. I believe in associating with like-minded people transcending all generations (using string theory, each personality combination exists in each generation, things rhyme but the context is different to varying degrees ultimately leading to different outcomes). Some Boomers have made the point – they were competing against a larger cohort of their peers (True). Back then most industries relied on physical man/woman power – now, not so much. I came out of University with utterly no job prospects right in the middle of a nasty recession (thought I could at least land a high paying mill job). I hit the payment and got jobs doing what I could – not even related to my field and no-where near what a mill job paid. Yes I was young, felt slighted and wondered why the boomers had it so good. University does not guarantee a job as times change and so does our climate. Education provides you with knowledge, but experience is what provides you wisdom. How to get experience? Claw and fight for it – challenge your assumptions, adapt your plans accordingly and don’t believe everything you see or hear. People lie! (let me rephrase that…People don’t always include all the details in their version of the truth. Example: Your friend lands her/his dream job and forgets to tell you that his/her relative is best friends with the hiring manager). To assume that you should reap the benefits of generation past is not a good starting point. So you can’t get a job in Van (I know it is hard to leave the scene, the young life and the excitement of the city) move to another location, redefine the ways of old. By the way – you have your youth – take advantage of that. Life is not perfect – shit hits the fan all the time – learn to adapt and embrace change. You do need to ground your expectations in the reality of the day and the sooner the better.

You must pay attention and exercise your right to vote. Until we have proportional representation or independents properly representing communities – I will vote strategically. To stay the course is not an option and will cause more harm in the long run. Don’t stamp your feet and give up…put your nose to the grind stone and persevere and count your lucky stars that you didn’t just lose your wife and two small children. (I will not judge him for I do not know the context). In your 20s you may feel that you know everything but as you progress through life you’ll realize you didn’t. Yes you know stuff but not the complete picture. You have the internet, use it for research and less for staying connected with friends etc.

Climate change I can deal with…polluting the crap out of our planet enrages me. Make your coffee at home, better yet stop drinking it. Some in the boomer generation are finally coming to grips that eating McDonalds over the last 30 years – not so good when you are in your 60s. The one generation expected to live the longest via medical innovations are not making it much farther than their parents.

And question your peers, professors, teachers and parents for they are only human. My children (boys 5 and 3) question me all the time and I grow as a person when they do. My heart goes out to another human who has just had his life smashed (FUBAR!). He has declined our offer to be a Canadian – I fear he is on a path to self destruction. I know I would take out the people who started that war in the first place. Please do yourself a favour and put your problems in perspective, utilize that critical thinking that society has tried to suppress. Listen to what your elders have to say, and analyze accordingly. Don’t fret the day to day headaches – stick to your long term plans and have several options to reach your goals. Just realize life is not perfect for anyone rich or poor.

All the best and Good luck!

#24 Porsche on 09.03.15 at 7:19 pm

This jobs number will guarantee a Fed rate hike

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/this-jobs-number-will-guarantee-a-fed-rate-hike-162805543.html

#25 LH on 09.03.15 at 7:20 pm

millennials like Jen do not deign to live in flyover country
(nor will they “stoop down” to work, but that’s their loss)
And foreign cash at 1.33 fx is not interested in anything other than 416 or 604

That leaves the two-horse market we are seeing this year. Simple supply and demand folks. Just follow this trend as Nectonite tells me there’s tons of juice left.

#26 White Crock BC on 09.03.15 at 7:20 pm

#10 Loonie Watcher on 09.03.15 at 6:44 pm

Idiots.

That is all.
————————-

What about trolls who predicted the Loonie would be below 70c by Labor Day?

You have one day to go.

“Mark it”

#27 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.03.15 at 7:26 pm

Just had the “car dealer” scam phone call.
Offering to “take my 1.5 year old vehicle and swap me a brand new one that got way more options…”

“uhhhhh, wny would you do that? ” I asked.
“We have a shortage of used vehicles and we NEED yours today for a potential buyer!”
“uhhhh, what would I owe on the new vehicle?”
“Your payment would remain EXACTLY the same!”
“Uhhhh, thats not what I asked, I only have 30 months left on my vehicle. If my payments remain the same, how many months would I have to pay?”
Well, we’d give you a brand new vehicle because we need yours and you’d make the same payments that you are now for 48 months. But we need you to bring your vehicle in this afternoon or the deal falls through…”
“Uhhhh, are you a part time real estate agent?”
Click!

#28 Murphy on 09.03.15 at 7:28 pm

#9 BC Guy
Hang on to your preferred shares.
They will still pay you a nice dividend and as interest rates rise so will your preferred share prices. In fact it may be a good time to buy more as interest rates begin to go up.

#29 ronh on 09.03.15 at 7:28 pm

But Garth, isn’t it all “good debt”? (sarc off).

#30 Brian Ripley on 09.03.15 at 7:37 pm

“This is it. Rates go down no more. They start to rise.” Garth

And when costs go up, disposable income goes down.

I have the earnings data (2 month lag) and chart up now:

http://www.chpc.biz/earnings-employment.html

Alberta, earnings momentum has of course has hit resistance and is falling. There are only 4 provinces with average earnings above the National average and the 4th, Ontario, is barely above the line.

#31 Freedom First on 09.03.15 at 7:38 pm

#14 The Real Pop Tart

I enjoyed what you wrote. I just thought I’d let you know something. Hopefully this will help you. When you score big on RE, nobody will be happy for you. Not your co-workers, your friends, your family, and least of all your neighbors. Jealousy and envy. Trust me. And that goes for all of your other financial transactions also.

I learned many years ago to keep my financial anonymity. Read the book the millionaire next door.

#32 Victoria Real Estate Update on 09.03.15 at 7:46 pm

#14 The Real Pop Tart

Only the greater fools are buying now at today’s bubble prices.

House prices in Victoria are no higher now than they were in 2010 despite 5 straight years of emergency interest rates, mortgage fraud, 5% mortgages (vs 20% in the US), etc.

A normal functioning housing market would have
posted strong price gains over the last 5 years in Canada’s highly stimulated housing market. Toronto, Hamilton, Winnipeg and several other Canadian cities have experienced price gains of up to 40% since 2010.

As Garth has explained, Canadian 5-year fixed rate mortgages will begin moving higher this fall. Naturally prices fall as rates rise. All first time buyers will be affected by rising fixed rates in Canada.

Renting and waiting for much lower prices is a no-brainer. Victoria’s market will experience a deep, multi-year price correction and you will look brilliant for not buying right now.

There will be unbelievable deals in the future.

#33 bdy sktrn on 09.03.15 at 7:46 pm

And I’ll take a 2 week time-out from here if the Bank of Canada fails to do what the data indicates it must to maintain its credibility and integrity, and cut the policy rate an additional 25bp.
———————-
i think they should , but won’t.
somehow we will survive another 2 weeks without your sales mix and CADpositive story, which is how many years old now?

#34 Andrew Woburn on 09.03.15 at 7:47 pm

If you are wondering how the fracking taps get shut off, here it is.

“Energy companies borrow from banks to drill this money into the ground. These loans – usually lines of credit – are secured by oil and gas reserves. Then companies issue bonds, often unsecured, to pay off the bank loans and have some operating cash. The cycle works, until it doesn’t.

And now it doesn’t.

The value of the collateral has plunged by more than half with the price of the hydrocarbons they’re estimated to contain. Twice a year, in April and October, banks look at this collateral to determine how much they want to lend on it. So during the re-determination next month, banks are going to cut back their loans by 10% to 15% on average, according to Bloomberg, thus wiping out $15 billion in sorely needed credit.

It sets off the liquidity death spiral. Companies will have to issue new bonds or leveraged loans to pay down these credit lines. But this time, investors won’t be lining up to buy them. ”

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/09/02/liquidity-risks-spike-to-worst-level-since-financial-crisis/

#35 DayOfReckoning on 09.03.15 at 7:49 pm

While the focus may be on US unemployment rate, the labour participation rate and lack of wage growth (in fact decrease in wages) has to troubling? Coupled with a stronger American dollar, global economic slowing present real risks to the US. Arguably, the US cannot support higher interest rates either?

Why do you continue to only focus on unemployment rate and ignore other pertinent variables? Somewhat myopic don’t you think Garth?

#36 bdy sktrn on 09.03.15 at 7:50 pm

although the sub50, even 60’s calls on the CAD do seem unlikely from here.

#37 Dan Oulette on 09.03.15 at 7:57 pm

Quebec’s finance minister is thinking of cutting Quebec’s income tax and increase Quebec’s sales tax.

This is a good move in my opinion for the overall economy and GDP.

#38 Llewelyn on 09.03.15 at 7:58 pm

Here is a little history to mull over;

In 1970 the Government of Canada introduced their Innovative Housing Program and appropriated $200,000,000 for CMHC to begin implementation of this program. In 1973 the Innovative Housing Program was expanded to include;

• funding for Assisted Home Ownership Program,
• the Neighbourhood Improvement Program
• the Residential Rehabilitation Assistance Plan
• non-for-profit housing programs under Section 15.1
• cooperative housing programs under Section 34.18.
• a Municipal land assembly program

In 1974 and 1975 the Government of Canada introduced the;

Registered Home Ownership Savings Plan (RHOSP), allowing potential first time home buyers to invest funs in a RHOSP, deduct the deposits from taxable income and withdraw their investment without tax implications to purchase a new home.

Multiple Unit Residential Building (MURB) allowing investors to apply any losses incurred from their investment in approved housing projects from any source of income. This plan was expanded in 1977 to increase the deductable capital cost allowance for wood framed buildings to 10.0% per annum.

Assisted Rental Program (ARP) directing monthly grants to private landlords assuring a reasonable return on equity. The program was amended in 1976 and 1978, to offer interest free loans to private landlords covering the spread between market rents and economic rents. It was anticipated that capital gains on the escalating market value of the projects would be used to retire the loan principle.

By 1979 the Government of Canada was providing over $5 billion dollars in tax related housing benefits to Canadian citizens each year. These tax related benefits did not include an additional $1.8 billion per year in benefits provided by CMHC under specific programs set out in the NHA.

In 1982 the interest rate charged on residential mortgages increased to an all time high of more than 20.0%/annum. The Government of Canada responded to this crisis by introducing several initiatives to minimize the impact of these unreasonable mortgage rates on Canadian citizens.

• Canadian Home-ownership Stimulation Plan
• Canadian Mortgage Renewal Plan
• Interest Deferral Program
• Direct Grants to Reduce Debt Service payments
• Canadian Rental Supply Plan (CRSP)

These programs though short-lived transferred hundreds of millions of dollars in benefits to Canadian citizens.

After substantial research I have determined that between 1950 and 1985 the Government of Canada through CMHC and the Department of Finance provided Canadian citizens with housing related benefits valued at more than $52.0 billion.

Many contributors to this blog seem convinced that the value of their dwelling escalated without any help. I can guarantee that the much-maligned CMHC played a very significant role in the wealth accumulated by Canadian citizens after 1950.

While all direct housing assistance not related to aboriginal interests was terminated by CMHC 20 years ago the transfer of billions of dollars in housing related benefits prior to 1995 must be acknowledged before wagging too many fingers at citizens who missed out on the ‘good times’. Just saying!

#39 BS Meter Reader on 09.03.15 at 8:00 pm

Love my Kia #1

I think Rosemary Barton single-handedly put the cons back into 3rd place yesterday.

Beats the last guy who hosted by a country mile.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Sadly, she has no future at the CBC. :(

She doesn’t beat up her dates, refuses to privately broker artwork to her on-air guests, and won’t take paid speaking gigs from corporations she has to report on. She knows nothing about working for the CBC. All she knows about is journalism.

Loser.

#40 Andrew Woburn on 09.03.15 at 8:07 pm

Another view of the Nordic Miracle

“Between the 70s and the 90s Sweden fell from fourth richest nation in the world to 13th. (Following free-market reforms at that time, they climbed back up to 10th by 2010.)

In 2004, only 38 of 100 businesses with the highest revenues in Sweden were privately owned. And only two of those 38 opened their doors after 1970. (IKEA, for example, began in 1943. Incidentally, its founder, Ingvar Kamprad, moved his wealth to the Netherlands and IKEA is owned by a family-controlled foundation in Liechtenstein, says Sanandaji.)

Meanwhile, net job creation in Sweden between 1950 and 2000 was close to zero in spite of the increase in population.”

http://business.financialpost.com/fp-comment/a-scandinavian-myth-buster-whats-wrong-with-the-idea-of-swedens-utopia

#41 Blacksheep on 09.03.15 at 8:15 pm

Bottoms # whatever,

“That now puts you in the realm of the ‘man on the moon’”
————————————————————–
I still get chuckle when ever some talks about the fictional story, of man walking on the moon.

So many things wrong with the physics of that tale it’s laughable.

I guess they haven’t gone back in 40 years, cause the just don’t want to : )

#42 ben on 09.03.15 at 8:17 pm

Debt service ratio for Canada. Oh dear…

https://twitter.com/LJKawa/status/639470003998355456/photo/1

#43 Mangos are $2 each? on 09.03.15 at 8:21 pm

Seriously, 2 bucks for a mango? These food prices are insane. I’m a mango addict, this is not good.

#44 Interstellar Old Yeller on 09.03.15 at 8:33 pm

#9 BC Guy

Read Garth’s Jul 19 post (sorry, link not handy.)

#45 Interstellar Old Yeller on 09.03.15 at 8:36 pm

Bonnie, at least you’re aware you’re afflicted with housing mania. Stay strong and listen to your head (and the numbers.) $2k rent sounds very reasonable. You could build up a serious portfolio of investments making $155k pa and only paying $24k pa in rent.

#46 Bottoms_Up on 09.03.15 at 8:37 pm

#361 TheLaughingCON on 09.03.15 at 5:59 pm
———————————————-
Please explain to me how a portfolio that has gone from $34 billion in 2009 to $112 billion in 2015 is putting taxpayers at risk?

#47 Mr.Hulot on 09.03.15 at 8:37 pm

Not to lessen the tragedy of the death of the child but these people are Kurds. The bigger question is why are they making this dangerous journey to come to the West when they can go to Iraqi Kurdistan which is safe and well defended?

#48 common sense on 09.03.15 at 8:37 pm

#43 Mango Man..

Head to Cuba May June..peak mango season…return with 44 lbs of Mangos for $2 CDN…

Give your old clothes away to make space, no problems yet in 20 trips with Canada Border services…

A few bottles of nice rum, some delicious honey…cheap

Your trip is basically free..

#49 lala on 09.03.15 at 8:38 pm

Don’t be so proud about Canada. Third world people are the ones who wants to come and live here. Propaganda BS. At the moment you stop the emigration and weed this country goes in toilet.

#50 Drill Baby Drill on 09.03.15 at 8:39 pm

Dear Pathetic Bloggers;
The right thing to do is raise the interest rates and I do agree with Garth that this will happen this fall. However it will be for display purposes only because we are facing deflation (except for US imports) and in order to prevent this at all costs we can expect another QE wave of monopoly money coming to a bubble near you.

#51 greyswan on 09.03.15 at 8:40 pm

Donald Trump type running in Canadian election?!

#52 pwn3d on 09.03.15 at 8:50 pm

the picture of that boy is one of the saddest things I’ve ever seen. that the Star did not fact check (we did not deny any request from that family) makes me ill. people who politicize things like that are sick in the head.

#53 Who or What on 09.03.15 at 8:53 pm

Who or what is a Rosemary Barton?

#54 TurnerNation on 09.03.15 at 8:54 pm

Re. Yesterday’s article. Universities have long been infiltrated with change and undercover agents who recruit and soften (cough LSE). Today’s university is generating beta males and ’empowered’ females taught to lay blame on capitalism.
Waiters and baristas abound.
Ask yours.

I worked after high school, earned 30k/yr at age 21. Good money in late 90s. I started university at age 23. Parttime grad school now. Thank goodness I developed my own skills of thinking critically.
We all are in sales. Starting with selling your labor to employer. Schools don’t teach that.

#55 ANON on 09.03.15 at 8:57 pm

In my native country, when there was obviously no growth happening (because we were asked to pay back the loans when Volcker raised the rates in the 80’s, or else!) the growth would appear on teevee in large letters followed by a bombastic commentary. Probably because we were commies at the time, and they imagined an economy can work without promises. No biggie, I imagined it also, because I honestly had no clue how it worked, same as the economists and the politicians.
Now the country is capie full steam free market, no rules, no barred holds, you can find its photo in the dictionary if you look under free market capitalism. Amazingly though, the debt is crashing all by itself (un-payable by the very definition), along with the economy, obviously.
Same as it is happening here, except here they’re still trying the old tricks, like: maybe we are technically in a recession, but if we changed the definition, then we would not be, right?
Let’s change the definition, then. :)

#56 OXI in GREECE !! on 09.03.15 at 9:09 pm

Can’t wait for the Friday part time low paying Mc Jobs report to come out !! Because in the Govt … we all lie continuously to you . . .. . . Raunchy Ronnie would be proud !!

#57 Tony on 09.03.15 at 9:13 pm

America will be told they cranked out less than 200,000 jobs last month. Every financial web site prints the same thing. No way on Earth the public will be told there was more than 200,000 jobs last month as the consensus is 100 percent certain under 200,000 means no September rate hike.

#58 Retired Boomer - WI on 09.03.15 at 9:25 pm

The US will likely not raise rates in Sept (though they should). Canada I can not call, but a decrease is more in line than holding steady. Why, your leader is none too bright, in my humble opinion. Joe Owe will take whatever order is barked at him.

Where’s F when you need him? RIP

Yellin ain’t Jellin here, look for a replacement after the FED election regardless of which mannequin gets placed in the window. (Oh, am I being too cynical here)?

Thursday night at the pub, with the boys. How’s the economy? NOT one business guy had good words. Soft, a dry patch, commodity issues (we know that) In a word crap!! I look for a revision downward. Too many people from manufacturing, sales, and transportation say things are weak. Not like 2008 I heard FIVE times tonight. “Not like 2008 but…” Be governed accordingly.

After a few, tongues loosen up. These are the front line sales guys, service guys, mill guys, drivers….

I trust them not the CNBC crowd. Business is “off ”

Think before you BUY prices here will not hold long

#59 Tony on 09.03.15 at 9:27 pm

Re: #24 Porsche on 09.03.15 at 7:19 pm

The entire world already knows the jobs report for August will be below 200,000 but not too far below as to “crash” the stock market. That’s how things work in America forget the past.

#60 kommykim on 09.03.15 at 9:35 pm

RE: #28 Murphy on 09.03.15 at 7:28 pm
#9 BC Guy
Hang on to your preferred shares.
They will still pay you a nice dividend and as interest rates rise so will your preferred share prices. In fact it may be a good time to buy more as interest rates begin to go up.

That would depend on which shares he bought. Perpetuals will continue to fall if rates rise. Rate resets will eventually recover their value. When depends on the reset date, terms of reset, and the going 5year bond rate at that time.
But you’re right. He needs to hang in there if he can.

#61 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.03.15 at 9:39 pm

@#53 Who or What?
“Who or what is a Rosemary Barton?”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

seriously?

There’s a new invention called “google”.
Try typing her name..
You’ll be amazed.

Next lesson.

Fire.

You eeeeeeee deeeee ott

#62 Leo Trollstoy on 09.03.15 at 9:43 pm

IT job boom in Toronto and Vancouver. The two cities rank in the top 30 in North America.

http://www.financialpost.com/m/wp/blog.html?b=business.financialpost.com//news/property-post/how-the-boom-in-technology-jobs-is-transforming-toronto-and-vancouvers-office-markets

Tons of IT jobs. Not enough candidates.

Canadian exports picked up by automotive. Inflation completely under control. It looks like the BoC won’t drop rates.

Garth is likely right. We are now witnessing the end of low rates. The climb upwards to begin shortly. You’ve been warned (for months).

#63 Smoking Man on 09.03.15 at 9:44 pm

#61 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.03.15 at 9:39 pm
@#53 Who or What?
“Who or what is a Rosemary Barton?”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

seriously?

There’s a new invention called “google”.
Try typing her name..
You’ll be amazed.

Next lesson.

Fire.

You eeeeeeee deeeee ott
…….

Ah the schooled

#64 kommykim on 09.03.15 at 9:44 pm

RE: #41 Blacksheep on 09.03.15 at 8:15 pm
So many things wrong with the physics of that tale it’s laughable.

Oh, please do tell!!

#65 bb on 09.03.15 at 9:55 pm

Why not implement something like a “Housing Tax Benefit (CHTB)” much like the Child Tax Benefit (CCTB) and UCCB?

For every house/condo you own you get some sort of tax benefit/money depending on income. That should reduce risks of potential defaults and encourage renters to buy. That should also make socialized housing obsolete. Everybody wins!!

#66 For those about to flop... on 09.03.15 at 9:55 pm

Message to someone with to much time on their hands…
I am a duel citizen of Canada and Australia and I think both of my countries could do more on immigration .
Australia ….less than 30 million people, slightly dusty.
Canada ….less than 40 million people ,slightly cold.
My question is percentage of the worlds land surface do the two countries have combined and what percentage of the worlds population in correlation to that .
I like the wide open spaces but there are people dying out there for no good reason.

#67 Under 50 Days to an NDP Government! on 09.03.15 at 10:00 pm

Garth, you gotta agree, Mulcair was statesmanlike and reasonable today in his response to the refugee crisis. Head and shoulders above the other two leaders. The next polls should reflect this.

Trudeau was rather petulant in playing the blame game, though not terribly off base in his comments.

Harper was an obfuscating weasel once again, saying this all proves we have to focus on fighting ISIS – even when everyone knows most of these refugees are fleeing from Bashar al-Assad, not ISIS. Shameful and soulless behaviour on a day like this will really hurt his brand, just watch.

A change is coming!

#68 Mark on 09.03.15 at 10:03 pm

“For every house/condo you own you get some sort of tax benefit/money depending on income. That should reduce risks of potential defaults and encourage renters to buy. That should also make socialized housing obsolete. Everybody wins!!”

There’s only so much housing that can be shoved down the throats of Canadians. Record percentages already own. There are negligible numbers of renters sitting on the sidelines. Its just not realistic to expect teenagers, children, the infirm, etc. to become owners.

House prices are falling on account of physical overcapacity in supply, and more importantly, the ability to create future housing supply. The industry has been hyper-stimulated to the extent that the crash that is in the early stages of unfolding will be far more severe than it really needed to be had the government taken a more hands-off approach all along.

#69 Sheane Wallace on 09.03.15 at 10:04 pm

CAD interest rates cannot be increased as then we all go kaput, instead they will keep it low and the dollar will dive, that’s it. Does someone believe that Poloz will increase interest rates in this environment? He has to due to his mandate but we can’t as everybody goes bankrupt.

There will be no meaningful rate increase, inflation will be higher than interest rates (aka NIRP – negative real interest rates) for quite some time. Is has been that – TALKS for a while and will keep going while there are believers. Any interest rate would be symbolic.
US will raise rates ‘eventually’ and then will pause for a very long time.

Stock markets at these valuations make sense only when predictions are for a very long period of very low rates in the future.

Balancing the delicate bond and stock markets has been a pretty remarkable act lately. One wrong step and….

You savers are blesses as you would be picking the tab.
Cheers.

#70 Mark on 09.03.15 at 10:14 pm

“Does someone believe that Poloz will increase interest rates in this environment? He has to due to his mandate but we can’t as everybody goes bankrupt.”

Poloz’s mandate is price stability, ie: the 2% inflation target. Inflation is currently 1%, and even such is probably overstated. Going into a deepening housing price decline, no less. Which should suppress consumer demand quite nicely and cause the CAD$ to rise as the real cost of consumer credit rises.

In light of the Canadian economy not experiencing anywhere near the inflation target inflation-wise, and the huge output gap that persists, Poloz’s mandate is basically to lower interest rates and continue to lower them until inflation re-appears. Thus far he has done a poor job on executing such as inflation is persistently and significantly below target. One could say that the BoC has found itself “behind the curve” in providing appropriately stimulative monetary policy.

#71 paparotty on 09.03.15 at 10:16 pm

#62 Leo Trollstoy

We are now witnessing the end of low rates. The climb upwards to begin shortly. You’ve been warned (for months).

===

Warned?!

Thank you Nostradamus.
Did you also call the oil collapse?
Some might have missed your insight there.

#72 Sheane Wallace on 09.03.15 at 10:17 pm

The future of our kids:

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/waiting-canadian-retail-workers-face-volatility-call-shifts-131813827.html

Waiting for Work: Canadian retail workers face volatility of on-call shifts

#73 Smoking Man on 09.03.15 at 10:18 pm

The meaning of life..

Wake up, hangover.. Never doing this again you say to yourself.

You hustle someone one.. They actually get a better deal you did.

Long story…

You drink again.

#74 OttawaMike on 09.03.15 at 10:20 pm

#41 Blacksheep on 09.03.15 at 8:15 pm
Re:Moon Shot Hoax

————————-

Fun theory but how did they keep it a secret all these years? Thousands of NASA employees all in on it and sworn to secrecy>

#75 Louise on 09.03.15 at 10:25 pm

Rosemary Barton should resign or be fired. It was discovered today that it was lies – the family had never applied for refugee status in Canada – the aunt had applied for the brother . Shame on the NDP/Liberals. The media should be held accountable for this. Just because somebody says it, doesn’t make it true. I thought journalists were suppose to check facts before publishing – Obviously not!

#76 Sheane Wallace on 09.03.15 at 10:26 pm

#70 Mark on 09.03.15 at 10:14 pm

Poloz’s mandate is price stability, ie: the 2% inflation target. Inflation is currently 1%

————————-
Price stability with inflation target 2 % and rates 0.25? When is the last time you used thermometer?

Inflation at 1 %? With CAD divind 25-30 % and everything imported? I want to live in your world, boy.

#77 OttawaMike on 09.03.15 at 10:27 pm

#62 Leo Trollstoy on 09.03.15 at 9:43 pm
Re:IT jobs

————————

As much as I hate to, I must once agree with that annoying little prick.

IT jobs that are available are only for the most highly skilled and experienced positions. I have friends in senior IT management, and it is not the growth industry it once was. Lots of bodies going over the gunwales, outsourcing to China amongst other offshore locales.

#78 Smoking Man on 09.03.15 at 10:27 pm

Matchstick men.

Best flick I’ve ever watched…

My congrats to the writer… Brilliance bro…

#79 Louise on 09.03.15 at 10:27 pm

The rest of the media should be ashamed of themselves. The star, globe all of them – publishing “World blames Canada” absolutely disgraceful. Why isn’t anyone holding these media outlets accountable ?

#80 Chris on 09.03.15 at 10:28 pm

The low interest rate has caused the GTA market to be extremely hot. I am talking avout east of Toronto, the 905 regions. I have been told by a friend that recently they bid on two houses that both went 50k over asking. And this is Durham region, not Markham, Richmond hill,…. I guess the realtors of Toronto have now discovered Durham region and are going for the kill here. Hoises here used to change hands right around asking price. I guess that has changed.

#81 Sheane Wallace on 09.03.15 at 10:29 pm

#70 Mark

Looking at nice imported shoes, the price has gone up 40 % in 3-4 years. Food? Don;t get me started. 1% but monthly. Somebody noticed the new yoghurt containers at 650 mll. at Lablaws? Used to be 750. And che cheapest yoghurt was 3.99. I remember prices of 2.79 few years ago and 2.25 going back in not so distant past.

#82 Observer on 09.03.15 at 10:30 pm

$700,000 mortgage and rock bottom rates with almost nowhere to go but up…..to each their own. In addition, I wonder how Poloz would feel if his kids had to live and work in VAN or TO and buy a house and try to raise a family!

#83 Boombust on 09.03.15 at 10:40 pm

#22…

A “rate cut” will cost the Tories the election?

Are you kidding?

Duh. It goes a little “deeper” than that; there are MANY REASONS why that psychopath, Harper will be thrown out on his ass.

You’re such a dunce.

#84 DisgustMadeMePost on 09.03.15 at 10:41 pm

Message to someone with to much time on their hands…
I am a duel citizen of Canada and Australia and I think both of my countries could do more on immigration .
Australia ….less than 30 million people, slightly dusty.
Canada ….less than 40 million people ,slightly cold.
My question is percentage of the worlds land surface do the two countries have combined and what percentage of the worlds population in correlation to that .
I like the wide open spaces but there are people dying out there for no good reason.

……………..

I feel the same.

I’d gladly have welcomed these people, and over any fast tracked investor immigrants.

Just seems so barbaric to be happening in 2015.

#85 Smoking Man on 09.03.15 at 10:46 pm

#74 OttawaMike on 09.03.15 at 10:20 pm
#41 Blacksheep on 09.03.15 at 8:15 pm
Re:Moon Shot Hoax
,
————————-

Fun theory but how did they keep it a secret all these years? Thousands of NASA employees all in on it and sworn to secrecy…
………

Nope, they are a bit sacred, Ashman’s father ouns the moon, his name is Isaac.. He has two bastard sons with Greenola. His green skined off spring. His pure breed son is pissed.

Little Abraham and Mohammad..so cute.

The prick broke all the rules… Went against counsel, the rules. The purity challenged .

Matted with the sub specie’s….

Hes in a whole lot of shit back on Nectonite …

Buy the book, take the ride…

Fk i need to develop a work ethic to deliver this beast of a book…

Its got to wait…airshow weekend.

#86 OttawaMike on 09.03.15 at 10:53 pm

I enjoyed the sunset view of parliament and the city skyline from the cockpit of my boat today. It is a beautiful night to be sleeping on the water and typing this.
The marina is unusually busy as Gatineau is having it’s Hot Air Balloon “Montgolfieres” Fest over the river.

I couldn’t help but think of the Syrians also taking boat trips this weekend.
We are a truly blessed people with our bounty and riches. That kid likely didn’t die in vain. It has brought the world’s undivided attention to this tragedy.

My family also took the refugee route via Germany post WW2. I am proud to be the first born in Canada in my family.

http://werbas.blogspot.ca/2011/10/culpability.html

#87 OttawaMike on 09.03.15 at 10:56 pm

#76 Smoking Man on 09.03.15 at 10:46 pm
————————————

Smokey,

Stick to beer and wine. Jet fuel really affects your writing skills.

#88 Mark on 09.03.15 at 11:02 pm

“Looking at nice imported shoes, the price has gone up 40 % in 3-4 years. Food? Don;t get me started. 1% but monthly. Somebody noticed the new yoghurt containers at 650 mll. at Lablaws? Used to be 750. And che cheapest yoghurt was 3.99. I remember prices of 2.79 few years ago and 2.25 going back in not so distant past.”

One-off statistics which are not a representative sample of the consumption basket of Canadians. I can easily rattle off a list of a few dozen items which have seen big drops over the past year particularly airfares, but doing so no more so proves my point than your examples prove yours. When Statistics Canada compiled the data, they could only justify an inflation rate which fell significantly below the 2% target. The bond market tends to agree by bidding up longer-term bonds, typically inflation-sensitive, to basically all-time highs.

#89 Buystander on 09.03.15 at 11:05 pm

“Here’s the latest report from the Saskatoon realtors:

“August represented the eighth straight month with a year over year reduction in the number of home sales in Saskatoon. This, coupled with a continued elevation in inventory levels equates to a buyers’ market.”

————–
A buyers’ market. That’s funny.

#90 DON on 09.03.15 at 11:05 pm

#84 DisgustMadeMePost on 09.03.15 at 10:41 pm

I feel the same.

I’d gladly have welcomed these people, and over any fast tracked investor immigrants.

Just seems so barbaric to be happening in 2015
**********************
Technology has advanced but human nature hasn’t. I gotta ask. Have you just arrived to the planet?

#91 Sheane Wallace on 09.03.15 at 11:06 pm

#85 Smoking Man

What are you drinking today? I am on scotch.

#92 DON on 09.03.15 at 11:08 pm

#84 DisgustMadeMePost on 09.03.15 at 10:41 pm

I gotta agree with you over accepting the fast tracked investor immigrants especially the criminal ones fleeing their countries with stolen money.

#93 BS on 09.03.15 at 11:16 pm

SunShowers on 09.03.15 at 1:46 pm

“Unemployment is lower now than it has been in the past decades like the 70s, 80s and 90s.”

Only if you ignore the entire context of this issue and consider only the raw unemployment rate over time.

Go to Statscan and restrict the unemployment data to 15-24 year olds (you know, recent university graduates, the age group most Millenials are now) and you’ll see the unemployment rate for this age group is higher now than in most of our history since the 70s.

Sunshowers if the unemployment rate is down in aggregate then there are more jobs per worker looking today than in decades past. If the Millennials as a group have higher unemployment as a group that is because employers do not want to hire them. The jobs are there, they are just being given to others. That was my point. Same amount of jobs, just employers are passing on millennials because of their entitlement attitude. The only way millennials will start getting jobs is if they change their attitude and work ethic. Keep whining though. I am sure it will get you far in life.

#94 CP on 09.03.15 at 11:22 pm

37. “Quebec’s finance minister is thinking of cutting Quebec’s income tax and increase Quebec’s sales tax.

This is a good move in my opinion for the overall economy and GDP.”

Should cut corporate and income tax and replace revenue with a wealth tax.

#95 Mark on 09.03.15 at 11:22 pm

“Price stability with inflation target 2 % and rates 0.25? When is the last time you used thermometer?”

Interest rates were considerably above inflation for much of the past 35 years. The average 3-month T-bill rate going back to 1980-2014 was approximately 6.3%, while inflation 1980-2014 was 3.1% annualized (ndir.com and bankofcanada.com are the sources).

The typical long-term real return of T-bills is approximately 1%. 1980-2014, it was approximately 3.2%. Hence, there is likely to be a prolonged period of negative real rates on T-bills to mean-revert excessive returns achieved in T-bills over the past 35 years in the falling interest rate environment.

It should be noted that the fact that policy rates are negative on a real basis does not imply inflation.


Inflation at 1 %? With CAD divind 25-30 % and everything imported? I want to live in your world, boy.

Not everything is imported. Only a relatively small chunk of Canada’s overall consumption basket is imported. The Canadian dollar has not weakened significantly against all of Canada’s trade partners — only the USA primarily. And even USD$-quoted prices are falling on account of deflationary forces.

Now, I guess if you live in US and collect CAD$, then its misery. But to the average Canadian, inflation is practically non-existent, and the risks are clearly weighted towards an acceleration of deflation as housing price declines significantly truncate consumer demand and creates demand for CAD$ to facilitate debt repayment.

#96 Blithe Barrington on 09.03.15 at 11:25 pm

#78 Smoking Man on 09.03.15 at 10:27 pm
Matchstick men.

Best flick I’ve ever watched…

My congrats to the writer… Brilliance bro…

……

I’ll have to give that a try.

I just finished watching the first episode of “Mr. Robot” and you should definitely check it out. The main character is perhaps a younger Smoking Man (tech guy, good at sizing people up) but lacking the drive towards loot.

#97 Godth on 09.03.15 at 11:28 pm

Yeah, the Russians have landed in Syria to help fight ISIS! Isn’t that great news!

Oh, maybe not.

#98 Steerage bilge on 09.03.15 at 11:31 pm

How buzz aldrin takes care of those who think moon walk was a hoax….

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wptn5RE2I-k

#99 Mike on 09.03.15 at 11:41 pm

The popular word in the heart of the Edmonton Oil & Gas (which is actually Nisku and Leduc) is that rig counts will remain relatively unchanged until at least this time next year. We just laid off several key people in an effort to trim more fat and not go under, and if you remember earlier this week Pennwest and ConocoPhillips laid off close to 900 ppl in Calgary. The reason for all this (plus Tervita laying off 15% of their staff) is that the winter window has now shut. All the big boys finally decided that they weren’t going to go ahead with any new rigs over this winter, so now all the smaller guys who were holding out to see what the big guys were going to do are starting to do another round. So expect a couple more weeks of big layoffs in Alberta.

Our company figures things will remain flat (so that means extremely poor with everyone in survival mode by keeping minimal staff and only buying the absolute minimum to get by) till at least this time next year, and then just hope that next years winter drilling window has better news, but they aren’t very optimistic.

Hearing several companies in this area are going into receivership, or at the very least laying off at least 15% of their staff. Things are very ugly here, but are going to get worse. It is scary.

#100 Mark on 09.03.15 at 11:41 pm

“. If the Millennials as a group have higher unemployment as a group that is because employers do not want to hire them.”

Really? Any evidence for this or the rest of your claim that Millennials aren’t willing to work?

What we have in the Millennials is one of the most educated generations of young people in the existence of the planet, just begging for their place in the economy. For their opportunity to repay student loans, accumulate some wealth for themselves, and to enjoy some of the fruits of their labour.

But everywhere they turn, there are barriers that didn’t exist for the boomers. Private sector employers who are so scantly capitalized that they can’t afford to hire in significant numbers. Employers who claim lack of skills, yet refuse to even respond to candidate resume submissions with any useful feedback due to litigation fears or simply being overwhelmed with resumes. Automobile insurance rates which outright discriminate against the young solely for being young. Tuitions and student debt that dramatically exceeds anything experienced in generation past. And a government that basically has turned a blind eye to certain companies ignoring the Canadian labour market and its pricing dynamics by importing temporary foreign workers.

#101 Nosty, etc. on 09.03.15 at 11:44 pm

#41 Blacksheep on 09.03.15 at 8:15 pm — “Bottoms # whatever,

“So many things wrong with the physics of that tale it’s laughable.”

Good point. Are these the rats in the rate race?

This is interesting — Japan kwits US$ Fear of rising oceans? Not for these ultra-rich!

#102 Mark on 09.03.15 at 11:56 pm

“Hearing several companies in this area are going into receivership, or at the very least laying off at least 15% of their staff. Things are very ugly here, but are going to get worse. It is scary.”

So true. Overtime bans for people in the Alberta construction and O&G sector who would often enjoy as much as half of their compensation as overtime is a story that won’t be told in the headline employment numbers either.

A significant number of other perks are already gone at many of the contractors. Was chatting with some Newfies at the bar in Corner Brook the other day who do the Fort McMurray thing, and they no longer have their flights paid. Yet another reduction in compensation that may not show in the official statistics, but exists nonetheless.

#103 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.04.15 at 12:04 am

#66
“I am a Duel Citizen”
——————-
which one will decide the choice of weapon?

#104 BG on 09.04.15 at 12:06 am

Smoking Man,

You mentioned you are a codesmith for Bay street.
How come you haven’t written you own automated trading system yet?

Is it because it is of no use to a retail investor?
Or maybe you prefer trading with your guts?

Just curious.

#105 Nico Whirl on 09.04.15 at 12:12 am

Garth

With all the gloom and doom of this thread, I am unable to read anymore without my greek worry beads in hand, though this makes it incre astily diffgalt to tyape messooges

#106 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.04.15 at 12:13 am

Is it just me, or is the lump under the carpet in the middle of the room looking more and more like a dragon?

#107 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.04.15 at 12:17 am

Harper sent our boys to fight bad Arabs.
Now they are fighting back.
Seems to be the nature of things.

#108 kommykim on 09.04.15 at 12:17 am

RE:#95 Mark on 09.03.15 at 11:22 pm
The Canadian dollar has not weakened significantly against all of Canada’s trade partners — only the USA primarily.

In the past 3 years the CAD has sunk 15% against the Euro; 25% against the USD; 25% against the Chinese Yuan; 22% against the British pound; and 4% against the Mexican Peso. These are our 5 biggest trading partners. The USA is our biggest trading partner (71% of it) so the 25% drop against the USD means a lot!

#109 kommykim on 09.04.15 at 12:32 am

RE: #98 Steerage bilge on 09.03.15 at 11:31 pm
How buzz aldrin takes care of those who think moon walk was a hoax….
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wptn5RE2I-k

Gotta love that guy! He simply thumped the bible thumper.

#110 Zusa Flint on 09.04.15 at 12:38 am

Garth

Any more info on which big Canadian company to take a big hit, as you promised to inform recently?

On a different note, looks like Bombardier could have its hands full with the Japanese entering the picture.
I wonder if a Japanese takeover of Bombardier is in the making….sushi could replace poutine in the factory canteen, which would be a good thang!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-31/japan-set-for-first-flight-of-regional-jet-in-late-october

“This battle is going to get nasty,” Addison Schonland, a Baltimore-based partner at aviation consultant AirInsight, said in a telephone interview Monday. “Embraer and Bombardier are not going to give up the fight. We don’t know if there’s room for three players. The pie’s not getting bigger.”

#111 MF on 09.04.15 at 12:51 am

#66 For those about to flop… on 09.03.15 at 9:55 pm

Do more? There are billions of people who want to come here. Do you plan on personally letting some of these people into your house and feeding them? Providing them medical care? Finding them jobs?

More importantly, there are thousands of hard working people already here in Canada hoping to become citizens by going through various immigration programs. It’s their dream. Some have been waiting years for paperwork to go through while constantly living in fear of the nightmarish scenario of deportation, and then being left with nothing. They are the ones that do jobs that we Canadians find “below” us. The vast majority have left their families back home and are overwhelmingly committed to becoming Canadian and starting life here. “Doing more” should mean they should come first IMO.

As for the Syrians. If we are to allow thousands of them in, I really hope that there is some Government agency that screens these people and protects against the importation of extremists.

#49 lala on 09.03.15 at 8:38 pm

I watch those people from the “third world” work their butts off on a daily basis trying to start a life here. They are the ones, unlike you, who realize how lucky we are in Canada. It’s okay. Sometimes I have to be reminded as well. By the way, you think it would be better if we were to get tons of rich Saudi princes instead? Think about it.

MF

#112 SWL1976 on 09.04.15 at 12:57 am

#54 TurnerNation

Today’s university is generating beta males and ’empowered’ females taught to lay blame on capitalism.

The communist revolution tis in full swing, just most can’t see the forest for the trees. This is why ‘sustainable development’ and ‘common good’ are such an easy sell these days.

The 2030 Agenda is not about eliminating poverty world wide. On the contrary the real crazies would much prefer universal poverty for all except them. They will however grant their gang of thugs who enforce their rules a slightly higher standard of living, but you better not question orders.

Free markets are long gone and there is only so much lipstick one can put on a pig

The democratic parties are corrupted, the people are ignorant – they’ve got no idea what’s going on or what to do about it, and neither do the economists – and certainly the policy makers in government have no clue and so correcting it is really out of the question – it’s going to blow up. – Dr Paul Craig Roberts

#113 Freedom First on 09.04.15 at 1:15 am

#73 Smoking Man

Don’t let the hangovers get to you. You are doing good. Only start to worry when you can’t remember what happened when you come to. Remember, your fellow dawgs are counting on you, and if you can’t remember what happened, how are we supposed to know what is going on?

Sincerely, concerned fan #33.

#114 Tony on 09.04.15 at 1:37 am

Re: #100 Mark on 09.03.15 at 11:41 pm

On the flip side of the coin an employer will always hire a quote retiree over a Millennial. One of the fall-outs of these Millennials is the sad shape of the world economies and retirees having to come back to work because of zero interest rate policies brought on because of the Millennials.

#115 Vanecdotal on 09.04.15 at 1:42 am

#62 Leo Trollstoy

“Booming”, true. I get your point re: no BOC further rate drop, and agree. However, I wonder, how many of those jobs are going to Canadians? Can’t speak to TO, but here in 604 IT and accompanying bright shiny new office space is a govn’t sponsored TFW mecca.
http://www.bcbusiness.ca/tech-science/vancouvers-temporary-tech-boom

“There are multiple ways to bring an employee into Canada. If the employee is from Mexico or the U.S., securing a work visa under provisions set out in NAFTA is relatively straightforward, at least for in-demand fields like software development; if the applicant has been on the same payroll for one year or longer, they’re eligible for an intra-company transfer visa. But when it comes to new hires, employers have typically turned to Canada’s temporary foreign worker program, says Craig Natsuhara, a Vancouver lawyer who works on business immigration issues. The temporary foreign worker visa required a labour market opinion (LMO) from Service Canada, whereby the employer had to prove that they could find no Canadian qualified for the position. That process often took months, says Natsuhara—unless you were hiring for a position eligible for an LMO exemption, the list of which included most computer programming roles. The LMO exemption made Canada an attractive place to set up shop. A company could hire for certain occupations—like software developer and game designer—without advertising the position in Canada, allowing them to bring in a developer within weeks.”

… and this chestnut: “And even though the new federal rules have caused some concern, it hasn’t curtailed demand for foreign workers, says lawyer Craig Natsuhara. Vancouver’s digital media studios alone have around 2,000 positions to fill in the next quarter, he notes. “There’s a real need for foreign workers in key positions.” ”

I am familiar with this industry, worker exploitation/wage suppression via TFWs new normal. The employers bitching they “can’t find qualified local or Canadian hires” are largely gaming (pun intended) the system to import the cheaper foreign supplicants.

#116 Albcerta on 09.04.15 at 1:43 am

I recently reported the flood of Alberta plates seen here in Vancouver. ..well its getting much more noticeable. .like you can’t drive 1 block around town without seeing the Red n White plate. Nuts.

#117 Jeff B on 09.04.15 at 2:09 am

#94:
37. “Quebec’s finance minister is thinking of cutting Quebec’s income tax and increase Quebec’s sales tax.
This is a good move in my opinion for the overall economy and GDP.”

Should cut corporate and income tax and replace revenue with a wealth tax.

—–

Taxing the wealthy is futile. There aren’t enough of them, so the tax rate would need to be so onerous that they’d simply leave.

A consumption tax (VAT, GST) is egalitarian, can’t be avoided by loopholes, and is far less likely to scare the wealthy into moving elsewhere. Jack the GST back up to 7% and reduce corporate taxes.

#118 John on 09.04.15 at 2:11 am

#28 Murphy
Ugh, why would preferred shares go up in value as interest rates rise? Preferred shares are tied to the bond market. The bond market is in a bubble.
Dump the preferred shares and buy common stock etfs while they are on sale.

#119 Kreditanstalt on 09.04.15 at 2:15 am

Kind of difficult to on the one hand repeat the government line that…

“…inflation is rising at just 1%…”

…on a blog devoted to the topic of SOARING housing – and rent – costs.

Hint: FORGET government statistics and try actually buying something people need and use.

#120 BS on 09.04.15 at 2:44 am

Really? Any evidence for this or the rest of your claim that Millennials aren’t willing to work?

I did not say they are not willing to work. Millennials are willing to work under their terms for “jobs worth doing”. I said based on their entitlement attitude employers pass on hiring them.

What we have in the Millennials is one of the most educated generations of young people in the existence of the planet, just begging for their place in the economy.

Education may be a plus but that is more than offset by the poor work ethic and entitlement.

But everywhere they turn, there are barriers that didn’t exist for the boomers. Private sector employers who are so scantly capitalized that they can’t afford to hire in significant numbers.

But unemployment is lower than in the past? Someone is getting hired. The millennials have created their own barriers. They should be the most sought after. They are not for good reason.

Employers who claim lack of skills, yet refuse to even respond to candidate resume submissions with any useful feedback due to litigation fears or simply being overwhelmed with resumes.

Give feedback on resume submissions? Is that another millennial entitlement?

I will give you some feedback. I have posted 100s of jobs online over the years. Most job postings get tons of resumes but few candidates I would interview. 95% of the resumes get tossed out immediately because the person applying does not take the time to respond to the job posting as requested. Millennials rarely do. If you can’t follow basic instructions on your very first correspondence then your resume is not worth reading and you certainly are not worth interviewing.

#121 John on 09.04.15 at 3:07 am

The housing talk in winnipeg is extremely quiet lately. There is almost no one left who thinks housing prices are going to continue to rise. The media never brings up real estate anymore and you never hear people say things like “you just gotta get in the market before you’re priced out” or “I’m buying a new build condo. It’s a great investment opportunity!” or “why are you still throwing away your money on rent?”. Thank god! Real estate prices clearly peaked here in 2013 and everyone knows it now. The condo market is so overbuilt and a disaster for anyone who bought in the last few years. Most condo buildings have a row of for sale signs out front that sat in the same place all summer. I don’t even care if housing prices rise or fall. I’m just glad all the annoying chatter is over.

#122 Tiger on 09.04.15 at 3:11 am

i am lost for word guys,the bubble continue.Right around the corner u can buy any drugs in the world

405-370 Carrall Street, Vancouver – 383 Sq Ft – $289,900

https://www.locatehomes.ca/bc-real-estate-listings/vancouver/mls-V1141894/405-370-Carrall-Street-Vancouver-V6B2J7?id=262000961

#123 Tiger on 09.04.15 at 3:13 am

THIS IS THE CORNER https://www.google.ca/maps/@49.2814625,-123.1043358,3a,75y,56.91h,85.22t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1svL7PI81YgguBQudxM4sn-Q!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

#124 TRT on 09.04.15 at 5:04 am

@Sheane Wallace

Let Mark post. He wants to feel like he is an expert in economics. There is a reason why he doesn’t work in the field. Let him at least have this avenue with his good grammar to boot.

#125 CJBob on 09.04.15 at 7:14 am

A city that relies on one main industry has a much greater risk than a city that has a diversified workforce.

Could Vancouver and Toronto experience a housing correction? Sure. Will they due to a drop in the price of oil when high tech jobs are flooding INTO these cities (according to the FP below)? I won’t bet on it.

http://business.financialpost.com/news/property-post/how-the-boom-in-technology-jobs-is-transforming-toronto-and-vancouvers-office-markets?__lsa=4b6e-4cad

#126 Bottoms_Up on 09.04.15 at 7:20 am

#23 DON on 09.03.15 at 7:17 pm
————————–
You were making some good points until you said stop drinking coffee.

#127 Bottoms_Up on 09.04.15 at 7:31 am

#41 Blacksheep on 09.03.15 at 8:15 pm
——————————
You’re being facetious right? Or do you need a punch in the face from Buzz?

https://youtu.be/wptn5RE2I-k

#128 Condo Nightmare in TO on 09.04.15 at 7:42 am

Garth is 100% right about the risk in buying condos…look at this mess

http://toronto.ctvnews.ca/etobicoke-building-residents-struggle-with-rising-condo-fees-1.2547396

#129 CHERRY BLOSSOM on 09.04.15 at 8:56 am

Show your readers how bad credit really is: $10,000 on a credit card: WAKE UP CALL ON CREDIT
Estimated time to repay the balance if you only make the minimum payment is 31 years and cost you about $46,000

Perhaps you should make a chart to scare people away from credit: ie How much $1000, and $2000 and $3000 and go to $10000 How much will this cost if one only makes the minimum payment. No wonder the kids cannot get ahead. They are working for the bank and the government. Garth I think you should start lectures on the damage of credit…..

#130 housedoc on 09.04.15 at 8:59 am

Wow!
Mark is kinda pathetic, though articulate, as anyone who pays their own way knows what inflation and shrinkflation feels like.
Smoking Man (I hate teachers, emasculated males, and entitled piss-ants too) is a joke who posts with other names and then converses back and forth with them (himself).
And for the record, the tragedy of the little drowned boy is no worse than the hundreds or thousands of others that have died in the fighting or fleeing it.
Flavour of the week bullshit!

#131 TurnerNation on 09.04.15 at 9:05 am

Haven’t been following this but I smell a rat.
Great news for the sitting War President/PM.

News said Canadian who was held in Syria is bringing his brutilizers to justice.
– Nwo wants to flood us with?
– A new story involving kids hits us.
– Let’s hope the backward brutalizers don’t slip in eh? And surely they’d have the money and connections to do so. Like the 3rd Reichers who were allowed free passage to South America after our invasion.
Damn history repeating?

Like we went to space with our ‘enemies’ the Ruskies. Wink wink. Known as IS(I)S. Joke’s on us.

No wonder most of my co workers aged 25-45 spend their evenings playing video games and sports on TV.
Reality is that tough.

#132 Ae 8/14 on 09.04.15 at 9:09 am

Hey Garth –

Canada had stellar employment numbers this AM. You updated the American numbers – which, with the revisions, weren’t bad – but the Canadian stats were great! Full-time +54.4, part-time -42.2, rate rose (always a good sign) to 7.0%. The BoC won’t be raising any time soon.

#133 Llewelyn on 09.04.15 at 9:10 am

August labour statistics for the US just in and wouldn’t you know all the cheerleaders quickly shifted from the number of jobs created to focus on a reduction in the unemployment rate to 5.1%.

Here is the skinny based on actual statistics circulated by the US Department of ‘Labor’ .

Between January and July 2015 the employment aged population in the US increased by 1,150,000 persons.

The number determined to form the actual labour force in the US actually declined by 74,000 persons between January and July 2015. I would be interested to learn why after the employment aged population increased by 1,150,000 the official labour force actually declined.

The official number found to be employed increased by 640,000 persons between January and July 2015 while the number of citizens of employment age but not officially classified as part of the labour force increased by 1,225,000 persons between January and July 2015.

For some as yet unexplained reason the ‘official’ labour force declined while the percentage of the labour force that were classified as employed increased. The net result was a substantial reduction in the employment rate to 5.1%.

Not one single media source reported that the number of US citizens classified as part of the ‘official’ labour force actually declines between January and July 2015.

When the employment aged population increases by 1,150,000 and the ‘official’ labour force is adjusted downward by 74,000 I get suspicious. What did 1,075,000 citizens decide to do rather than seek employment. Did an additional 1,000,000 citizens suddenly enrol in a post secondary institution?

Surely if the economy of the US was in such great shape their ‘official’ labour force should be increasing not shrinking.

I guess if the ‘official’ labour force continues to shrink the ‘official’ unemployment rate will vanish.

Once the actual August stats come on line I will investigate this further.

#134 liquidincalgary on 09.04.15 at 9:14 am

Jeff B. says:

A consumption tax (VAT, GST) is egalitarian, can’t be avoided by loopholes, and is far less likely to scare the wealthy into moving elsewhere. Jack the GST back up to 7% and reduce corporate taxes.

=========================================

here! here!

tax consumption, not income

#135 Tory No More on 09.04.15 at 9:20 am

The appalling behaviour of Stephen Harper continues to embarrass me as a lifelong conservative. He won’t get my vote this time.

His insanely insensitive attitude towards refugees is the final straw for me, and will be for many other previous supporters. This week will probably cost him a chunk of his base.

Here is what one legendary conservative, Pat Carney, (who I used to think of as more right wing than most of us) says about why we should take in many more refugees, and how Harper is behaving right now:

“Act from your guts and your heart, not the pollsters and campaign”

“Otherwise the Conservative Government should be swept out of office by a tsunami wave of anger that your government is so unresponsive to a humanitarian crisis of Biblical proportions.”

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/cabinet+minister+from+calls+ottawa+increase+canada+refugee+intake/11337868/story.html

That’s what thoughtful conservatives are thinking.

I can see why you could not tolerate being part of this government, Garth.

It speaks to your integrity and humanity, qualities sorely lacking with all those who obediently surround Stephen Harper.

#136 Henry Simpson on 09.04.15 at 9:20 am

To #94 CP and Jeff #117

A wealth tax is a future income tax in disguise because the taxes you saved years and years are taxed at once so that is just stupid and counterproductive to people saving money and increasing capital in the economy.

By the way, high tax rates of 48% to 52% RRSP, RRIF, LIRA, LRIF, LIF taxes at death and capital gains taxes at 25% to 27% plus probate taxes are already hefty estate taxes that already exist.

We should see a government pension and government benefit tax that goes up for every $5,000 of income.

This will help government’s control costs and their debts as they promised too much to all government workers that most Canadians are paying for and will never see in their lifetime.

#137 fancy_pants on 09.04.15 at 9:25 am

has anyone told the king?

http://www.businessinsider.com/south-korean-exports-august-economic-bellwhether-2015-9

chicken little

#138 Shawn on 09.04.15 at 9:25 am

U.S. Employment

Tony guessed right that the U.S. jobs would come in under 200,000.

But note that the unemployment level is 5.1%. Wages also rose.

To me, that is a smokin’ hot economy. There have been very few periods in my 45 years of paying attention to such rates that it has been that low.

People can bleat all they want about other unofficial numbers. I just observe that the official rate is very low.

I own U.S. stocks and certainly feel good about the particular stocks I own which are in banking and home building.

My bet is that the FED will increase rates by some small amount in September.

#139 Godth on 09.04.15 at 9:26 am

#111 MF on 09.04.15 at 12:51 am

Sounds like you’ve been listening to Stefbot, the anarcho.-capitalist ideologue.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCOLcMqdpls

You may want to balance that out with some reading:

The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism
http://www.amazon.ca/The-Shock-Doctrine-Disaster-Capitalism/dp/0676978010
Confessions of an Economic Hit Man
http://www.amazon.ca/Confessions-Economic-Hit-John-Perkins/dp/0452287081

Of course people from around the world want to get into the beating heart of the empire (USA, Can. is along for the ride). It’s dangerous to live in the outer vassal states. It requires a never ending cycle of violence for 5% of the world’s population to consume 25-30% of the world’s resources.
Heaven forbid if any of the violence we must inflict on others is done to us. It’s a great excuse to ramp up the violence to new levels though and that’s profitable stuff, plus there’s the booty. To bad about the refugees.

#140 Smoking Man on 09.04.15 at 9:31 am

Well judging by the payrole numbers.

Sept 17th Gartho goes full tarzan , ohhhh, o ohhhh

Told you bastards the Fed will spike….then Dr Smoking Man gets slammed…with his no spike call.

Well, I’ll probably be quiet, humiliated I was wrong, not use to it.

So i will spend the day, watching my p & l on my massive long USDCAD bet go through the roof..

Ahhhh

Not easy being me.

#141 dodgedbullet on 09.04.15 at 9:33 am

#9 BC Guy

If you don’t have your preferred’s in a TFSA speak to your brokerage about moving them into a self directed TFSA… it will trigger a capital loss which helps your taxes whilst still retaining your investment…. I think.

#142 Nagraj on 09.04.15 at 9:36 am

It’s 9:20AM and the US stock mkts response to the US jobs data – OR some talking Fed heads’ response to it – is confirming GT’s take on the future course of US rates.

Dow futs are down over 200pts (DAX is down ca 2.7%) and what interests me – perhaps not all readers – is the developing TECHNICAL picture. It is not a given that the stock mkt will end this correction at a max 20% down.

#143 Paul on 09.04.15 at 9:56 am

#253 GeorgeSoonToBeRetired on 09.03.15 at 9:03 am

#248 paul

You said:

“So this is Harper’s fault a Child drowns half a world away!”

——————————————–

Did you even read the story?

A request to allow this family in was HAND DELIVERED to Chris Alexander months ago.

A Stephen Harper cabinet minister.

Who expresses in his actions the essence of this so very hyper-PMO-controlled government.

It was rejected.

Harper has promised to allow in 10,000 Syrian refuges, but where are they? No one can find more than few.

Instead, Canadian forces are used in the Middle East to help make life so unbearable that people are forced to flee.

Harper makes fun of Trudeau sending clothing to help the Syrian refugees.

I’ll bet some clothing, maybe a life jacket or two, could have helped that boy’s family.

Chris Alexander has suddenly discovered compassion, and “suspends” his campaign for a day to deal with this crisis.

How cynical.

How opportunistic.

How calculating.

How inhumane.

These people are making us look awful all around the world right now.

You right wing extremists who post so many comments on this blog – you really want to vote for these people?

(And no, thankfully, many commenters here are not right wing loons, and actually quite thoughtful)

What a horrible look in the mirror we are getting today
———————————————————-
So I guess most of the story was so much BS as far as how heartless Canadians and there leaders are.
Here is your chance to apologize!!!

#144 working guy in BC on 09.04.15 at 9:59 am

In yesterday’s comments section, Daisy Mae # 277 said:

“Notice the NDP in BC are never re-elected? Always…one term.”

That is simply not true. The last time the NDP were in power in BC, they governed from 1991 to 2001, winning two elections in a row, the 1991 election and the 1996 election.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_New_Democratic_Party

#145 Smoking Man on 09.04.15 at 10:11 am

The NDP keeps sending me emails…
This is what Rebecca sent me, and my reply bellow…
___________

Election countdown: 45 days
NDP

Smoking,
Every vote in this election will make a critical difference. Winning or losing will come down to supporters showing up.

More than 4.5 million Canadians put their trust in the NDP in the last election. Thanks to our remarkable team and supporters like you, we’re now 45 days from bringing change to Ottawa.

Smoking, the first step is saying you’ll vote.

Commit to vote right now.

This election is about change.

Under Stephen Harper’s Conservatives, Canadians are working harder, but falling further behind. Tuesday’s news that Canada is officially in a recession proves what you and I already know:

Stephen Harper’s plan isn’t working.

Tom Mulcair has the experience and the plan to defeat Stephen Harper and get Canada on track. If each of us votes, and we ask our neighbours and friends to join us, we can bring change to Ottawa.

Commit to vote right now, and ask your friends to do the same:

http://www.ndp.ca/commit

Thanks and solidarity,

Rebecca

Rebecca Blaikie
President
Canada’s New Democrats

Donate
_____________

My reply to Rebecca.

Dearest Rebecca.

I fully intend to follow your below instructions and bring all my palls out to vote.

Unfortunately not for your party; being an entrepreneur, an amazing day trader. Its not in my best interests to vote in Communist..

You’re really nice people on the surface but I fear once you get your hand in the cash box and spend it all, you will then come after my cash box…hell you might even come after it before you bankrupt this great country of ours.

Toms a very nice guy with a big heart..but lets face it, he sucks with finance. On the internet, they say he re mortgaged his home several times…a bit scary don’t you think.

I have no pension, I like the TSFA , you guys want to take that away leaving me with very little options.

Now I know within the Communist movement you are all a bit psychotic when it comes to climate change..

Rebecca, I’ve been on this planet for 56 Years…I can attest the climate hasn’t change one bit, winters are damn cold, are summers are hot..same every year.

All your going to do is make life a living hell for those poor bastards you all love and Cherish, who can least afford the huge cost of living increases those tree hugging policy’s will punch them in the face with.

So keep me up dated on the campaign, keep up the good fight.

Thanks for reaching out..

Sincerely

Dr Smoking Man
Phd Herdonomics

#146 maxx on 09.04.15 at 10:15 am

#1 Love my Kia on 09.03.15 at 6:28 pm

“I think Rosemary Barton single-handedly put the cons back into 3rd place yesterday.”

She can also think on her feet better than most members of tptb and doesn’t need to interrupt the flow of business to accomplish her work either.

#147 miketheengineer on 09.04.15 at 10:16 am

Garth et al:

Isn’t this fraud….?

A former Stelco president and the provincial government are accusing U.S. Steel of setting up its Canadian business to fail so it could wipe out the claims of 14,000 local pensioners and keep the best parts of the company.

Here is the link:

http://www.thespec.com/news-story/5828592-ex-stelco-boss-accuses-u-s-steel-of-manipulations-/

Sooooo they take a billion and screw little old pensioners that are in their 70’s, 80’s and 90’s out of their pension money, and can’t fight for themselves….

Wow…amazing they can do this.

#148 cramar on 09.04.15 at 10:18 am

#138 dodgedbullet on 09.04.15 at 9:33 am
#9 BC Guy

If you don’t have your preferred’s in a TFSA speak to your brokerage about moving them into a self directed TFSA… it will trigger a capital loss which helps your taxes whilst still retaining your investment…. I think.

—————-

Thought of this the other day, so called my investment advisor. He says it does not work! If you transfer an investment outside of a TFSA into your TFSA it is known as an ‘in-kind’ transfer. If there was a capital gain on the investment from when you bought it, it will trigger a ‘disposition’ and you will will be required to pay capital gains. BUT, if the investment is in a loss position, CRA deems it to be ‘nil’ and will not allow you to claim the loss.

How fair is that?

#149 Jane Pitmond on 09.04.15 at 10:20 am

It is already beginning, the NDP lost a seat in Calgary last night.

I guess a few months in and people are realizing that it is not a real alternative but are an economic and jobs liability.

#150 $406,000 on 09.04.15 at 10:25 am

Condo prices in Toronto have just reached an average of $406,000. I GUARANTEE you that this is it. They will go no higher. This time next year, they will be at $386,000 and heading down. Within five years, expect $275,000 to be the average (after lumping out the top 0.5%) as people dump these investment sponges by the dozen.

#151 maxx on 09.04.15 at 10:32 am

#2 JSS on 09.03.15 at 6:35 pm

“The picture of that beautiful little boy lying face down dead in the sand leaves me sad.

RIP little guy. You a cutie.”

While we’re at it, let’s also spare a moment or two for the thousands upon thousands that died of starvation, war and abuse in that same time frame around the entire planet.

#152 GeorgeSoonToBeRetired on 09.04.15 at 10:32 am

#143 paul

Nothing to apologize for. The lady relative in Canada made it very clear that her ‘other’ brother had applied and been rejected, true. But that was to be the litmus test for whether the family of her second brother could also apply to get in. When the first family were refused, the second family lost hope and took to the boats. It still has the root cause of Chris Alexander’s and Stephen Harper’s indifference to the plight of refugees, and this extended family in particular

(Harper and Alexander continue to dig themselves deeper into this hole, fudging the numbers of actual refugees and Alexander keeps fudging the Syria numbers by bringing up Iraqi refugee numbers. A really misguided strategy that will bite them hard. They are not acting with honesty, in the public’s eye.)

You really have to try to split hairs to make the difference you are trying to make. That is a very distasteful enterprise – surely, would that not be beneath you in light of the suffering of that child, face down I the sand?

Notice that none of the Conservatives are doing that? They are guided by smart PR people telling them that there really is no difference in the public’s eye and it would seem very petty and inhumane to do what you are doing, Paul.

But there is nothing quite so smart guiding you, huh?

Do you really wish to cast your lot with Harper? He appears each day as a more and more despicable human being.

#153 A Canadian Abroad on 09.04.15 at 10:35 am

From the USA based Market-Ticker:

Oh Please
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=230623

Here it comes you fools…

Kate Whyte almost got to the point where she was going to stand on a street corner with a sign stating: “Homeless: have $1 million dollars, can’t find a home to buy. Please sell me your home.”

She was nearing her breaking point. She sold her five-bedroom North Vancouver house in March for $1.3 million. Whyte, her husband Peter and her youngest child planned to downsize and buy a smaller house in the same area.

WHAT?!

The benchmark house in Vancouver is over $1 million? Toronto is just under that?

Are you out of your ****ing minds?

Canada learned nothing from the United States and our housing bubble and both deserves to and will have a monstrous blow-up and crash.

As for those of you in the Canadian Real Estate Market, since you saw what happened here and know, but are involved in this anyway, perhaps those who wind up under a freeway overpass will decide that the endless excuses I’m sure you will be putting forward simply don’t wash.

#154 Lorne on 09.04.15 at 10:43 am

#149 Jane Pitmond
It is already beginning, the NDP LOST a seat in Calgary last night.

I guess a few months in and people are realizing that it is not a real alternative but are an economic and jobs liability.
……………..
Really?? I did not know you could lose something you never had?? This riding is and always had been a Conservative stronghold….but is now controlled by the Wildrose, who many would characterize as being even further to the “right”. You could definitely say the Conservatives LOST a seat in Calgary….but the NDP certainly did not LOSE something they have never owned! Pretty pathetic attempt at spin.

#155 Shawn on 09.04.15 at 10:59 am

Hear Him

here! here!

tax consumption, not income

***********************************
I like that saying or exhortation or whatever you would call it but I believe it’s “hear, hear” as in hear him, hear him.

#156 It has been coming for a decade now on 09.04.15 at 11:01 am

“your friends and idiot relatives increased their borrowing by 4.9% in the last year, says RBC. Together we now owe $1.84 trillion (a trillion is a thousand times a billion”

I wonder what the correlation is between your blog readers who qualify as idiots and those readers who need explanation of what “billion” means. And how many of those need clarification of what “correlation” means? All this shows you that it is not so much about haves vs not-haves – it’s about the educated vs uneducated. Educated does not only mean degrees in something hard, it includes education in the ways of the world and how you do or can fit into it. The latter, no government can solve for you.

#157 Sheane Wallace on 09.04.15 at 11:12 am

#125 CJBob

High Teck jobs flooding into Toronto and Vancouver?
It is a myth and a lie.

There are more IT job openings, that is true, however they pay very little and in depreciating CA dollars, in very expensive cities.
So they can’t be filled and stay open for a veeeeeeeery long time. Agents getting crazy for not being able to fill them and earn the commission.

In US you can make easily in average (USD adjusted) twice the money here with much cheaper cost of living, maybe 2.5-3 times in SF and NY.

It is interesting that Canadians are not used to pay for brains and are not increasing the IT wages despite the lack of resources.
A VP of IT level that I know at a top Canadian bank can not afford house in Toronto. Really?

Input from top management consulting agencies: in the last few years, everywhere, in finance, retail, you name it in Canada the IT Business Systems are disintegrating after decades of non-investment in IT, refusal to recognize the cost of running business and keeping the light on and the truly nasty mistreatment of IT talent by the likes of canadian HRs.

Good luck in filling these position that will require you to pay 10-12 times of your ‘highly paying job’ annual salary (before taxes!) for a crappy house in Toronto.

There are no smart professional in demand that will work for peanuts except in Steven Harper’s wet dreams. Period.

The IT job market is much hotter in US, look at these published stats, the ‘growth’ here is around 5 % (Toronto and Vancouver) while in the hot places in US it is around 30-40 %!

#158 Llewelyn on 09.04.15 at 11:13 am

Just looked at the official stats issued by the US Department of Labor for August 2015.

Employment aged population increased by 220,000 people in August 2015 and has increased by 1,370,000 persons since January 2015.

The ‘official’ labour force declined by another 41,000 people in August 2015 and has declined by 115,000 persons since January 2015.

The number recorded as employed within the ‘official’ labour force increased by 196,000 persons in August 2015 and by 836,000 since January 2015.

The employment aged population not participating in the labour force increased by 261,000 people in August 2015 and by 1,486,000 since January 2016.

I cannot find any explanation for why the size of the ‘official’ labour force has declined by 115,000 since January 2015 or what 1,486,000 additional employment aged people are doing instead of joining the labour force.

Strong economic growth results in a labour force that seems to be shrinking.

Very conflicted data if you ask me!!!

#159 Derek R on 09.04.15 at 11:21 am

#149 Jane Pitmond on 09.04.15 at 10:20 am wrote
It is already beginning, the NDP lost a seat in Calgary last night.

Nope, the PCs lost a seat in Calgary last night. Alberta is still voting ABC, Anyone But Conservative.

#160 kommykim on 09.04.15 at 11:29 am

RE:#148 cramar on 09.04.15 at 10:18 am
BUT, if the investment is in a loss position, CRA deems it to be ‘nil’ and will not allow you to claim the loss.
How fair is that?

Yea, it sucks. Since preferreds are still trending down, he could sell them, wait 31 calendar days, and buy them back in the TFSA. There is a risk that they might bounce back in that timeframe though.
One nice thing is that you can carry that loss forward indefinately to offset any future capital gains.

#161 Derek R on 09.04.15 at 11:37 am

#134 liquidincalgary on 09.04.15 at 9:14 am wrote:
tax consumption, not income

Trouble is that one man’s consumption is another man’s production. A tax on windows reduces the number of windows sold; a tax on clothes reduces the number of clothes sold; a tax on sales reduces the number of sales of windows, clothes and everything else sold. And fewer sales means fewer jobs making stuff to sell.

So a tax on consumption is not good because it’s even more of a tax on jobs than income tax is. If you’re going to tax stuff, you should tax stuff you want less of. And that doesn’t include jobs.

#162 Paul on 09.04.15 at 11:55 am

#152 GeorgeSoonToBeRetired on 09.04.15 at 10:32 am #152 GeorgeSoonToBeRetired on 09.04.15 at 10:32 am

#143 paul

Nothing to apologize for. The lady relative in Canada made it very clear that her ‘other’ brother had applied and been rejected, true. But that was to be the litmus test for whether the family of her second brother could also apply to get in. When the first family were refused, the second family lost hope and took to the boats. It still has the root cause of Chris Alexander’s and Stephen Harper’s indifference to the plight of refugees, and this extended family in particular
————————————————————-
Yea right nothing to apologize other than the fact you and the Toronto Star tried to blame Harper.
But what the hell that’s what Progressives do it’s not about the truth it’s about the political mileage.

It sounds like you have personal knowledge of how they gave up hope and “went to the boat’s” or it that just another BS embellishment? To which I applaud, you are Quite good at it!

#163 Mf on 09.04.15 at 11:56 am

Godth on 09.04.15 at 9:26 a

It’s the usual story from people like you. Nice of you to complain about the west while enjoying its riches though.

The problems in the world are not all the result of the west. Is it our fault there are religious extremists and high levels of corruption in the countries? No, actually it isn’t.

Sorry to break it to you but the world is not fair and never will be. We are lucky to be on this side in this country at this time. I for one, and for our future’s stake, hope it stays that way.

Mf

#164 Paul on 09.04.15 at 11:59 am

#154 Lorne on 09.04.15 at 10:43 am

#149 Jane Pitmond
It is already beginning, the NDP LOST a seat in Calgary last night.

I guess a few months in and people are realizing that it is not a real alternative but are an economic and jobs liability.
……………..
Really?? I did not know you could lose something you never had?? This riding is and always had been a Conservative stronghold….but is now controlled by the Wildrose, who many would characterize as being even further to the “right”. You could definitely say the Conservatives LOST a seat in Calgary….but the NDP certainly did not LOSE something they have never owned! Pretty pathetic attempt at spin.
———————————————————-Yes you can not lose something unless you tried to win.
Oh wait a minute

#165 Leo Trollstoy on 09.04.15 at 12:05 pm

#71 paparotty on 09.03.15 at 10:16 pm
Warned?!

Correct. Garth has been mentioning this for months.

No reason not to be prepared.

#166 Mister Obvious on 09.04.15 at 12:07 pm

#9 BC Guy

“I bought quite a few preferreds last year because they were “safe”, would hold their value give or take a percent, and pay between 4 and 5%.

I regret buying them and wish I had bought some risky, high-flying tech or biotech stock instead.”
———————————-

What you should do is think carefully about why you bought preferred shares in the first place. They are closer to bonds than equities. They pay a fixed dividend and are redeemed at par if and when the issuer decides to call them. In the meantime they generate income.

If you want to make money only through capital gain they are a poor choice. However, you should not build a portfolio based on a single philosophy. Preferred shares are one plank in an overall investment strategy that balances various vehicles.

Has Garth taught you nothing?

#167 Lea on 09.04.15 at 12:16 pm

#125 CJBob

We moved to Vancouver for the “tech boom” and will be moving back to the U.S. when my husband’s contract is over. Anecdotal evidence is that many are of the same mind.

Vancouver is breathtakingly expensive. We compare it to Los Angeles, but even those from London complain. Not one expat is planning to invest in real estate, many are planning to move. While Vancouver is nice, it is not worth the prices for many who are here.

#121 John

Isn’t it a relief when the chatter dies? The awful part is watching people suffer when things crash. People moved all over the place when things burst in 2008.

#168 Godth on 09.04.15 at 12:19 pm

#162 Mf on 09.04.15 at 11:56 am

I know self reflection is taboo in the west, and critical thinking is frowned upon though it’s a foundation for western civ. but the facts are on my side bub. I know it’s easier to blame the victims though, especially if they’re barbarians or worse – savages.

“The American way of life is not up for negotiations. Period.” GHW Bush

Greg Grandin on “Kissinger’s Shadow”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pYonvL46yYs

You’re correct though, life is not fair – bombs away then I guess. OOOhh, those poor refugees!

The chickens have come home to roost in so many ways (bill C-51), what goes around comes around.
The ‘Good Germans’ Among Us
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/14/opinion/14rich2.html?_r=0

#169 Drill Baby Drill on 09.04.15 at 12:21 pm

#158 Derek R

You do not understand. The Wildrose are the new PC’s.

#170 Bill on 09.04.15 at 12:26 pm

Canada
Lalalalal a wonderful place where goverment will tell you what you want to here and save the day. Lets keep the immigrant spigot turned up full blast.
Taxes through the roof. Enviro fees on everything you touch. It takes two to keep a home afloat on the the wages that never get an increase. Including the oil patch now. Stock market hasn’t gone anywhere in years.
Aint it a peach?! Were the hell do I put my cash to work?!!

#171 JimH on 09.04.15 at 12:27 pm

#157 Llewelyn on 09.04.15 at 11:13 am
“Just looked at the official stats issued by the US Department of Labor for August 2015… &etc.”
================================
As an old and grey equities and derivatives trader, I learned many years ago (from Todd Harrison now of Minyanville fame) that all “news” (including reports, announcements and rumors) is for the most part inconsequential, irrelevant, and of little predictive value.

What is critically important therefore, is not the news itself, but rather how the market reacts to it.

Personally, I listen to what the market is trying to tell me, rather than listening to those who try with their airy predictions to get the market to listen to them!

The bottom line is simply this:
“Price is the only thing that pays.”

#172 Bytor the Snow Dog on 09.04.15 at 12:29 pm

Anecdotal re: IT in Toronto but I’ll throw this out there.

My son just got an entry level IT position at the Canadian HQ of a multinational corporation in TO.

Pay- $40,000 PA. This leaves him barely enough to rent and live on as he is young and single (Renting a 1 br apt. on Bayview).

His department contains three employees that do software development on a particular product. When he was hired via a nationwide search he was one of three that applied. I advised him to take the job to get his foot in the door despite the low pay.

After he was hired one of the others left. They are now conducting another search for applicants and finding no takers.

Gee I wonder why?

I told my son to use this opportunity to talk to his boss about the compensation levels for his position. Doubt if he’ll get anywhere. Corps want it all. And they want it all for nothing.

#173 4 AM Sunrise on 09.04.15 at 12:37 pm

#120 BS on 09.04.15 at 2:44 am

I did not say they are not willing to work. Millennials are willing to work under their terms for “jobs worth doing”. I said based on their entitlement attitude employers pass on hiring them.

Yeah, about this “jobs (not) worth doing” stuff…in my experience, HR-o-bots can be quite unforgiving when it comes to work experience that doesn’t match that of their imaginary ideal candidate. Too many years working hard at jobs that aren’t in the field that you trained for and…they look down on you. The margin of forgiveness for wrong turns in one’s education and career seems tight. No wonder people lie on their resumes nowadays.

Give feedback on resume submissions? Is that another millennial entitlement?

Yes. Another HR-o-bot (probably a Millennial herself) asked me if I asked this other place for feedback on my resume. When I said no, she seemed quite disappointed and told me that I’m supposed to ask for feedback.

#174 Calgary Rip Off on 09.04.15 at 12:41 pm

There is zero anyone can do about forces in the economy.

Fact: China owns North America. Fact #2: Oil industry is dependent on what Saudi Arabia wants.

All the things are reactive: Jobs, opinions, politics.

The oil industry is a joke in Alberta. It doesnt matter what anyone thinks. Pumping oil out of sand or fracking will always be more expensive than what Saudi Arabia provides. Nothing you can do about it. It’s kind of like death. It will happen, only a matter of when. Best to accept it and save your breath. There really isn’t any solution to any of this because of the way society is structured based upon petroleum. Everything is linked to petroleum in some way.

Compounding that enormous problem is the rapidly aging population which more and more are a waste of space. Soon the younger people will end up bearing the burden of that generation. In another 20-30 years most of that will be over cause the baby boomers will mostly be dead.

Oil problems + baby boomers + domesticated society = unfixable problems.

Perhaps this is the solution: Ghostrider Stockholm outruns cops: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=un3I95pRI04

#175 jas on 09.04.15 at 12:41 pm

Just an other view:

Financial advisors say: Stock market investment is for long term. And when asked to define ‘long term’ most of them would say 5 years+ whereas in reality, it is anything but 5years+, rather it is 15years+, (if you ask me again, it is even longer).

With that time horizon, I would like to ask the question,
what is wrong with rental RE?

And when you calculate the return, please take into account the pay-off of your mortgage by the tenant as well as the positive cash flow you get.

The fact that RE is illiquid should be looked upon as a positive(i.e. you can’t let your emotions get the better of you as it often happens with Stock market investments).

Interested to know others views.

#176 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.04.15 at 12:42 pm

Could a little Syrian boy bring down the mighty Harper?
Sounds almost biblical, does it not?

#177 Bill on 09.04.15 at 12:53 pm

Like i said:
Gov=idiots
I had to share. Lol
http://www.cknw.com/money-talks/

#178 The American on 09.04.15 at 12:59 pm

Shawn, Tony guess nothing at all. The time stamp of his post indicates a time after those numbers were available on certain U.S. websites. Tony has NEVER been right about any prediction he’s made. Be clear about that.

#179 BillyBob on 09.04.15 at 1:00 pm

“GeorgeSoonToBeRetired on 09.04.15 at 10:32 am
#143 paul

When the first family were refused, the second family lost hope and took to the boats. It still has the root cause of Chris Alexander’s and Stephen Harper’s indifference to the plight of refugees, and this extended family in particular.”

====================================

Except this is completely untrue. Just watching BBC World here in Dubai and the story is mentioning that the family was denied exit visas from Turkey, so they were not permitted to leave.

(For those who have never been outside of Canada and the USA, most countries in the world have visa controls on both entry and exit, not just entry…)

The story is tragic, but economic migrants are not refugees in the traditional sense and the father put the family in harm’s way and they all paid the price. Period.

The attempts to make political hay on both sides of the story of the drowned migrants is disgusting.

#180 bdy sktrn on 09.04.15 at 1:14 pm

But that was to be the litmus test for whether the family of her second brother could also apply to get in. When the first family were refused, the second family lost hope and took to the boats.
—————————–
bullshit.

-the first app was incomplete.
– the 2nd family was in turkey, not syria
– there is no danger in turkey.
-even if the second app was complete and submitted there would be no choice to deny it as turkey is not a conflict zone.
-the father made an extremely poor choice and it cost him dearly.
-wtf does this have to do with canada?

#181 Nagraj on 09.04.15 at 1:21 pm

#170 JIM H

Todd Harrison – I miss him badly – is no longer as active at Minyanville. Very popular, universally liked, and a great humanist. (He has a history of various health problems.) He also has a history of coining terms that became popular (Turnaround Tuesday, Freaky Friday) and a penchant for puns. (Remember Crash the cat?) His writings about his family experiences are perenially memorable, he grew to hate NYC.
His charts were singularly useful; he liked to say that he liked his tech analysis simple.
And he had no use for Fed-directed mkts, to put it one way.
Minyanville is a poorer place without him.
(How’s Hoofy and Boo? Loved the snake with the glasses and the bow tie.)

#182 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.04.15 at 1:26 pm

Here’s my unsolicited advise the Mr.Harper:
Suspend his campaign.
Sponsor all 10K Syrian refugees (via primenisterial executive privilege)
Settle them all in his riding.
Become an international humanitarian hero.
Win in a landslide.
(maybe settling them in his Alberta riding could backfire, though)

#183 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.04.15 at 1:34 pm

#179
-wtf does this have to do with canada?
——————
Probably nothing.
But remember the medium is the message.
And he who lives by the medium, dies by the medium.

#184 cramar on 09.04.15 at 1:47 pm

Billionaire has to slash house price by $46 million! Tough times!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/billionaire-jeff-greene-slashes-46-million-off-mega-mansions-asking-price-2015-09-04

What does this have to do with common RE prices in Canada or even in the U.S.? Absolutely nothing! Just interesting.

#185 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.04.15 at 1:49 pm

With all their oil generated billions.
Why isnt Dubai, U.A.E., Qatar, Saudi Arabia, etc etc etc accepting a few thousand of these refugees?
Why isnt the media covering that?

#186 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09.04.15 at 1:51 pm

#78 Smoking Man on 09.03.15 at 10:27 pm
Matchstick men.
Best flick I’ve ever watched…
My congrats to the writer… Brilliance bro…
___________________________________________
Really you’ve got a lot of catching up to do in your retirement old man.

Still the best track from Status Quo.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3D4YYI8G5EM

#187 Ponzius Pilatus on 09.04.15 at 1:51 pm

About 800,000 refugees from Syria are expected in Germany this year.
Not saying it’s right or wrong.
Just pointing out different ways to deal with the problem.

#188 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09.04.15 at 1:58 pm

#354 Smoking Man on 09.03.15 at 4:51 pm

#346 Bottoms_Up on 09.03.15 at 4:16 pm
#305 Smoking Man on 09.03.15 at 12:41 pm
——————————
That now puts you in the realm of the ‘man on the moon’ deniers, and anti-vaxxer crowd. Nice.
……..

How typical of a tree hugger. cant defend your views wth logic and fact, so resort to name calling qne mobbing.

Dude , the weather is exactly the same today, than when I arrived from Nectonite in 1957
____________________________________________
We all know your a professional liar Smoking Man however at least keep your lies repeatable. You just told us you were turning 56 back in July, so that would mean you were born in 59. So explain the 57? Some of us have memories so keep it consistent!

#189 Hotdogs ate my brain on 09.04.15 at 1:59 pm

I.T.? Who wants to go into I.T.?
CGI just laid off hundreds of workers throughout the GTA this week. Lots of work moved to “the cloud” and so it can now all be managed and enhanced from India. Oh, and our guys were told that the company would not give them full severance if they did not stay and help train their Indian replacements.

Anything digital can be done overseas and much cheaper (the rupee has fallen more than the loonie in the last year). Do NOT go into I.T. or let your kids study it unless they can specialize in an industry as a content expert (banking, insurance, health care, etc).

Of course, not one word of this from any of the political parties or their representatives in Toronto. CGI will be needed to bid on government projects no matter who wins in October and of course the real benefit will go the office in Bangalore, India.

#190 crowdedelevatorfartz on 09.04.15 at 2:16 pm

@#144 Working guy in BC
I would be too smug about those “back to back” NDP election wins in BC.

In 1991 Mike Harcourt only won with 41% of the popular vote running against appointed premier Rita Johnson. A trained monkey could have beaten her.
He resigned before the 1996 election due to the Bingo-gate scandal.
Then we had NDP appointed premier Glenn Clark winning the 1996 election with less votes than the Liberals but squeeked out a victory by winning a few more seats.
https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CB0QFjAAahUKEwjMgsXm-t3HAhWUNogKHbrFAu4&url=https%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FBritish_Columbia_general_election%2C_1996&usg=AFQjCNEUu6RG9lW7ncnkuktCLHWCy-dc5g&bvm=bv.102022582,d.cGU

Glenn Clark then resigned after his own scandal boosting unwinnable Ujal ( politically correct, visible minority) Dosangh to the forefront.
Unfortunately the NDP seem to unlearn from their leadership choices mistakes.
Now the pathetic NDP leadership candidate choices has foisted upon the BC electorate…… a cornucopia of Liberal leadership candidates best described as convicted drunk drivers or ex bar maids.
Neither of which, unfortunately will ever be exposed as the truly machavellian, scheming sub species of human that they are.

#191 Canadian on 09.04.15 at 2:56 pm

DELETED

#192 Smoking Man on 09.04.15 at 2:56 pm

#187 Holy Crap Wheres The Tylenol on 09.04.15 at 1:58 pm
#354 Smoking Man on 09.03.15 at 4:51 pm

#346 Bottoms_Up on 09.03.15 at 4:16 pm
#305 Smoking Man on 09.03.15 at 12:41 pm
——————————
That now puts you in the realm of the ‘man on the moon’ deniers, and anti-vaxxer crowd. Nice.
……..

How typical of a tree hugger. cant defend your views wth logic and fact, so resort to name calling qne mobbing.

Dude , the weather is exactly the same today, than when I arrived from Nectonite in 1957
____________________________________________
We all know your a professional liar Smoking Man however at least keep your lies repeatable. You just told us you were turning 56 back in July, so that would mean you were born in 59. So explain the 57? Some
of us have memories so keep it consistent…..
……….

Everything in my book has a historical significance. Searchable google events.. Your correct me, I 1959.

But my split personally came here on a starship in 1957.

See excerpt below.

Please tell me your wife dosent have a tourcher chamber in the basement, and is printing and Scotch taping all my posts on the walls..

Google , UFO sept 20 1957 peace bridge

“It’s a planet one billion light years away, it has a high concentration of nicotine in the atmosphere, we can’t live without it, that’s why I’m chain smoking all the time. We landed here on Sept 20th 1957, to study you. How do you bastards welcome us, we nearly got shot out of the sky by two F86 fighters over the peace bridge near Buffalo New York, Google it.” I said.

#193 OXI in GREECE !! on 09.04.15 at 3:06 pm

#138 Shawn on 09.04.15 at 9:25 am
U.S. Employment

Tony guessed right that the U.S. jobs would come in under 200,000.

But note that the unemployment level is 5.1%. Wages also rose.
,<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

wages – 8 pennies…WOW

Shawn if you believe that unemployment % I have a Star Destroyer to sell you – and your dumberererer than I thought…….

#194 OXI in GREECE !! on 09.04.15 at 3:12 pm

OH……and most of the Canadian jobs …..were GOVT jobs. Please someone draw us all a picture and show us where the money will come from to pay for all these jobs funded by an every decreasing level of tax dollars. Shawn your up….

#195 Linda on 09.04.15 at 3:22 pm

BillyBob and bdy sktrn

You are both incorrect. What that poster said was right.

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2015/09/03/canada-rejected-request-to-take-in-family-of-drowned-syrian-boy.html

“Tima Kurdi planned to apply for Abdullah and his family once Mohammed was approved, but it never happened.”

“While the brother is not named in the letter, an official in Donnelly’s office confirmed that Kurdi specified in an attachment to the letter that she and her family were sponsoring Mohammed and his family, but that the attachment does go over the family histories of both Mohammed and Abdullah. ”

So it does seem clear that the Ministry’s bureaucratic indifference lead to the refusal to allow the first brother to come, which would have lead to the second applying.

Meantime, Alexander talks bullshit about approving thousands of Syrians to come, over years, yet barely a small fraction have been actually allowed. No explanation? Many more refugees have been resettled by Canada in mere weeks, when the political will was there.

Stephen Harper’s bigoted, indifferent and fascistic government killed that little boy, his brother and his mother.

Period.

#196 cramar on 09.04.15 at 3:26 pm

I’m glad this excellent book is still getting good reviews after all these years. The article has some interesting things to say on RE.

Except for RE investment (specific currently to the U.S.), this sounds a lot like GT:

“The word ‘millionaire’ used to evoke a world of extravagant wealth. But, these days, it’s nothing special, as everyone needs to save at least $1 million for retirement.

“And that money shouldn’t be spent in retirement, but instead lived on through income-producing investments such as dividend stocks, bonds and real estate. What’s important is how much income you can generate with that nest egg to keep you (and your spouse or partner) living comfortably for an indefinite period.”

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-how-you-can-be-the-millionaire-next-door-2015-07-14/print

#197 CraigM on 09.04.15 at 3:47 pm

#184 crowdedelevatorfartz

With all their oil generated billions.
Why isnt Dubai, U.A.E., Qatar, Saudi Arabia, etc etc etc accepting a few thousand of these refugees?
Why isnt the media covering that?
_________________________________________

They are:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34132308

#198 Godth on 09.04.15 at 3:54 pm

#194 Linda on 09.04.15 at 3:22 pm

…but there will be a gas pipeline built from Qatar through Syria to the Med. once Assad is thrown out so the Euros. won’t have to be so reliant on dr. evil pootie-poot.

Progress requires sacrifices. When the contract is awarded there will be big bucks to be made. Invest and get a slice. Gotta walk on the sunny side of the street.

#199 M on 09.04.15 at 4:07 pm

Gartho…STOP it, you silly :)
Dorothy will kick you over the head with a towel !!!!
US WILL NOT jack up $hit nevermind interest rates. Those job creations are crap part timer low wage misery.

“It will come” YESSSSS baby.. in Canada will come because , halllellujjjaaaa,..Mr Market will crap on kkdian bond like there’s no tomorrow. And yes.. we will see another rate cut ..before that’ll happen

..then..smoking hole in the ground Libertas Real Assets baby. If thta one’s no scam, it’ll make a lot of dough for many boyz an’ gals

#200 jas on 09.04.15 at 4:20 pm

#188 Hotdogs ate my brain

I agree with you. I.T work can be done from offshore with no expensive office rents to pay. And the salary paid is a fraction of what one demands in the developed world.

Perhaps this also gives an interesting insight into why Warren Buffet is not a great fan of I.T industry.

The only thing remaining to come to us from abroad are our burgers…and no doubt a day will soon come when it will become a reality.

Question is: How to position yourself (as a country) to counter the market forces of globalization?

#201 The Other Chris on 09.04.15 at 4:22 pm

@196 CraigM

Nothing in the article you linked to says that the wealthy gulf states (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Oman, etc.) are accepting refugees. From what I’ve read, the big 6 wealthy gulf countries have agreed to take zero refugees.

The Arab countries that have do their part are primarily Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon. Basically only the poorer countries.

Not only are they not taking refugees, but the big 6 wealthy gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, are the ones funding ISIS, which is creating this refugee disaster in the first place.

#202 JRH on 09.04.15 at 4:24 pm

Excellent point Crowded…..#184

#203 4 AM Sunrise on 09.04.15 at 4:36 pm

#200 The Other Chris on 09.04.15 at 4:22 pm

The “they” in CraigM’s response refers to the media covering the issue of why Gulf countries aren’t accepting refugees, and not the countries themselves.

#204 Blacksheep on 09.04.15 at 4:40 pm

Bottoms # 127,

Want to talk about Buzz, OK.

This video displays that even with extreme pressure, while multiple cameras rolled that Buzz Aldrin, choose to punch his religious harasser in the face, risking an assault charge and potential public backlash, rather than swear on a bible, that he landed on the moon…

https://youtu.be/wptn5RE2I-k

This all makes perfect sense to me, I’m sure Buzz is an acknowledged atheist and of course had every right to deny his harassers, religious request.

But I bet given some time to think, a clearer headed non-believing Buzz, would have realized the risks involved in punching someone for simply asking you to swear on a bible, I mean the bibles BS anyhow, so why not just appease the idiot for the cameras?

He’s gotta now, it would make for great PR to be used over and over in the future.

Sound plausible to me, so lets visit Buzz light-years Wiki page and get some background on this american hero:

Quote:

“Aldrin, a Presbyterian, was the first person to hold a religious ceremony on the Moon. After landing on the Moon, he radioed Earth: “I’d like to take this opportunity to ask every person listening in, whoever and wherever they may be, to pause for a moment and contemplate the events of the past few hours, and to give thanks in his or her own way.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buzz_Aldrin

Whaaat!…seems Buzz is a deeply religious man. He is also, an old man and in his mind, not far from meeting ‘his’ maker.

Buzz clearly had a reason, for not wanting perjure himself, to ‘his’ god.

Here’s our man B.A., being asked about going back to the moon, by a student.

Watch him squirm, dismiss and deflect, for a full 5 minutes, funny stuff.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HV_bD3xQG9Y

Did you now Aldrin was a raving alcoholic, post the Apollo 11 mission, I wonder what internal demons he was dealing with, all for greater good of the nation.

#205 Millmech on 09.04.15 at 4:41 pm

#194 Linda
What have you done to help this situation?Have you agreed to sponsor a family?Put them up in your house?This reminds me of the Cecil the lion story,another social media sensation that in a year no one will remember.Sad what happened,but if you feel truly guilty about it,go over to Turkey and work in those camps don’t sit and point fingers from your seat in comfy old Canada.

#206 Smoking Man on 09.04.15 at 4:43 pm

#197 Godth on 09.04.15 at 3:54 pm
#194 Linda on 09.04.15 at 3:22 pm

…but there will be a gas pipeline built from Qatar through Syria to the Med. once Assad is thrown out so the Euros. won’t have to be so reliant on dr. evil pootie-poot.

Progress requires sacrifices. When the contract is awarded there will be big bucks to be made. Invest and get a slice. Gotta walk on the sunny side of the street…
….

Based on my reconn evening flights around the world. Don’t think that pipeline will get laid with out some huge resistance.

#207 Victoria Is Up, Up, Up on 09.04.15 at 4:55 pm

Victoria #32

Not to burst your repetitive bubble, but the numbers are out for Victoria – prices up 8%!

This has been the busiest tourist season on record. Ontario RE has shot through the roof, giving retirees the cash to actually retire here now; tons and tons of mainland chinese tourists and students here now; and oil money from returning workers pouring in. The Island has been exposed as a jewel now – no turning back.

You may have missed the boat on this market. Just as the market has done nothing for 5 years in spite of interest rate drops means that it may not decline either in spite of interest rate hikes. Same logic as you.

#208 Prepared on 09.04.15 at 5:02 pm

#164 Leo Trollstoy on 09.04.15 at 12:05 pm
#71 paparotty on 09.03.15 at 10:16 pm
Warned?!

Correct. Garth has been mentioning this for months.

No reason not to be prepared.

—-

Like what? Paying back the national debt quickly before the interest rate goes up?

#209 Godth on 09.04.15 at 5:09 pm

#200 The Other Chris on 09.04.15 at 4:22 pm

CrossTalk: Annihilating Yemen
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X08f9Ei9pbg

Qatar and Saudi are Wahhabi (Suuni) ruled (like ISIS), why would they invite Shiite Barbarians inside the gates while they’re trying to annihilate them outside the gates?

Maybe Israel, as the only democracy in the ME, could take some in? Bwahaha

It’s all broken, we dun broke it good. I hate to be a pessimist (haha) but there’s no fixing this. Turkey is going insane too. It’s only begun, our tax dollars at work.
British SAS Special Forces “Dressed Up as ISIS Rebels” Fighting Assad in Syria
http://www.globalresearch.ca/british-sas-special-forces-dressed-up-as-isis-rebels-fighting-assad-in-syria/5466944

#210 CraigM on 09.04.15 at 5:23 pm

@200 The Other Chris

Nothing in the article you linked to says that the wealthy gulf states (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Oman, etc.) are accepting refugees. From what I’ve read, the big 6 wealthy gulf countries have agreed to take zero refugees

__________________________________________

Sorry, I should have been more clear: what I meant by “They are” is that the media is covering, albeit sparingly, the fact that the rich countries aren’t accepting refugees.

#211 DON on 09.04.15 at 5:24 pm

#126 Bottoms_Up on 09.04.15 at 7:20 am
#23 DON on 09.03.15 at 7:17 pm
————————–
You were making some good points until you said stop drinking coffee.
************************

Imagine the reaction if I had said stop drinking alcohol>> YIKES! lol

#212 Paul on 09.04.15 at 5:25 pm

#200 The Other Chris on 09.04.15 at 4:22 pm

@196 CraigM

Nothing in the article you linked to says that the wealthy gulf states (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Oman, etc.) are accepting refugees. From what I’ve read, the big 6 wealthy gulf countries have agreed to take zero refugees.

The Arab countries that have do their part are primarily Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon. Basically only the poorer countries.

Not only are they not taking refugees, but the big 6 wealthy gulf countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, are the ones funding ISIS, which is creating this refugee disaster in the first place.
———————————————————-
Canadians should just wake up and stop the feel good self flagellation.

#213 OXI in GREECE !! on 09.04.15 at 5:33 pm

#199 jas on 09.04.15 at 4:20 pm
#188 Hotdogs ate my brain

I agree with you. I.T work can be done from offshore with no expensive office rents to pay. And the salary paid is a fraction of what one demands in the developed world.

Perhaps this also gives an interesting insight into why Warren Buffet is not a great fan of I.T industry.
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

I'm surprised Social Media has not set up some kind of boycott blockade to IT companies that do this. There are many many choices for games, movies, entertainment etc these days. I would gladly stop buying anything from a company that uses "outsourced" IT which puts Canadians out of work.

#214 Leo Trollstoy on 09.04.15 at 5:39 pm

Perhaps this also gives an interesting insight into why Warren Buffet is not a great fan of I.T industry.

Except for his giant stake in IBM

#215 Larry Laffer on 09.04.15 at 5:46 pm

@200 The Other Chris
Amen to that. The Western World, the United States in particular, held a very questionnable course of action in this region in the past decades, and as a consequence has poorly chosen its allies.

Al-Quaeda originates from Saudi Arabia, as did most 9/11 hijackers, and before that the original 1993 WTC bombing.

Saudi Arabia and Turkey are just too happy seeing ISIS murder Chiis and Kurds, which they hate. Turkey has barely helps the campaign against ISIS for far, preferring to hit its own Kurds population instead.

Turkey is also buying ISIS’s contraband oil production, which keeps them well funded.

Saudi Arabia has commited way more troops and funding fighting against Iran’s influence in Yemen than it did fighting ISIS, so far.

Meanwhile, Iran could be a powerful ally against ISIS and could help stabilize Iraq further.

Just sayin’…

#216 Godth on 09.04.15 at 5:52 pm

#205 Smoking Man on 09.04.15 at 4:43 pm

lol, I read the news and I can’t keep up with all the protests and uprisings taking place. It’s a goddamn lunatic asylum. Then there are the wars that are sitting on a knife edge to wider conflagration.

Too much greed and corruption; too few resources; too many mouths wide open. Have you been saved – bwahahaha! Apocalypse always.

#217 Bottoms_Up on 09.04.15 at 6:03 pm

#203 Blacksheep on 09.04.15 at 4:40 pm
—————————————
Someone asks that you’re a man a thousand times I’m sure you would punch them in the face too rather than ‘swear on the bible’.
Explain to me then why the Chinese are now trying to send someone to the moon, explain the space station, explain the hubble telescope, explain why we are now in the process of sending people to Mars.

Right, but we didn’t put anyone on the moon despite the efforts of 300,000 Nasa employees. You are clearly nuts.

#218 JimH on 09.04.15 at 6:07 pm

#180 Nagraj

Hey there! Yes, Minyanville has seen many changes since starting up about 14 years ago! There still are updates almost daily from T3, but Hoofy and Boo have moved on.

Thanks for the reminder of some of Todd’s many ‘wisdoms’.

My favorite was “Always remember to be humble…
or the market will do it for you!”

Good luck!

#219 Blacksheep on 09.04.15 at 6:09 pm

Know, not now.

#220 Smartalox on 09.04.15 at 6:14 pm

@212 OXI:

Social media tried to host a protest, but the (outsourced) IT professionals that support those social media sites blocked it!

#221 JimH on 09.04.15 at 6:19 pm

#180 Nagraj

Also, regarding good technical analysis. You might consider Brian Shannon, another trader now settled down in Colorado.

His website is alphatrends.net and he does a valuable daily market analysis. Subscription, but the bronze is really all a swing-trader needs.

Chess’nWine over at http://marketchess.com/ also has a good tech analysis overview.

#222 Vanecdotal on 09.04.15 at 6:28 pm

#212 OXI in GREECE !!

Noble idea, but you’ll be reading a book/playing Scrabble. The TFWs are already that pervasive in the industry here. I’m including IT, gaming, social media, animation, VFX & lately film post production as well. Y’know, all the “growth” industries in our recent “tech boom” LOL.

Has created a labour pricing environment whereby the wages for local hires are often below even a bare-bones living wage for the region, resulting in fewer local applicants. Another tactic is to advertise the jobs (that aren’t LMO exempt) with completely unrealistic hiring criteria (intentionally). Then the multinational co. can now “legally” bring in their non-resident pick hire they had in mind THE ENTIRE TIME. It’s a ruse and both the BC and Fed govn’t allow and seem to encourage this. Needs to be (another) election issue. The locals who do get hired generally are poorly paid. The low-middlun’ TFWs are also poorly paid. The key foreign hires are often well paid. How many locals are given opportunity to advance to the higher pay grades within these multinational companies I wonder? I suspect it is a small % of all local hires. There is no incentive to invest in training/upgrading the pay scale of our resident workforce. These co’s are happy to tax our generous tax credits though. Ridiculous… and it’s common knowledge in the biz.

Turnover/burnout rate also extremely high in these industries for these reasons and more. Employers then cry to govn’t. “we can’t fill these positions, we need yet more TFWs”. Negative feedback loop continues. Rinse, repeat. Voila – organic wage suppression. We are devolving into a 2nd world country with this type of economic policy, needs a major re-think.

#223 Vanecdotal on 09.04.15 at 6:30 pm

Re: prev. post “These co’s are happy to tax our generous tax credits though.”

should be “use our generous tax credits though.”

#224 Dean on 09.04.15 at 6:33 pm

#199 jas on 09.04.15 at 4:20 pm
#188 Hotdogs ate my brain

———————————-
do not expect get an iPhone from dollar store. The most convoluted IT project I have ever seen was done Indian brogrammers :)

#225 doogie f on 09.04.15 at 6:39 pm

#120 BS on 09.04.15 at 2:44 am

I will give you some feedback. I have posted 100s of jobs online over the years. Most job postings get tons of resumes but few candidates I would interview. 95% of the resumes get tossed out immediately because the person applying does not take the time to respond to the job posting as requested. Millennials rarely do. If you can’t follow basic instructions on your very first correspondence then your resume is not worth reading and you certainly are not worth interviewing.”

You sound like you work for HR—Human Remains

#226 Where’s Joe Oliver? on 09.04.15 at 11:18 pm

“Joe Where”?

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/wheres-joe-oliver-why-in-turkey-of-course/

#227 Setting the Record Straight on 09.05.15 at 2:25 pm

#215 Larry Laffer on 09.04.15 at 5:46 pm
@200 The Other Chris
Amen to that. The Western World, the United States in particular, held a very questionnable course of action in this region in the past decades, and as a consequence has poorly chosen its allies.

Al-Quaeda originates from Saudi Arabia, as did most 9/11 hijackers, and before that the original 1993 WTC bombing.

Saudi Arabia and Turkey are just too happy seeing ISIS murder Chiis and Kurds, which they hate. Turkey has barely helps the campaign against ISIS for far, preferring to hit its own Kurds population instead.

Turkey is also buying ISIS’s contraband oil production, which keeps them well funded.

Saudi Arabia has commited way more troops and funding fighting against Iran’s influence in Yemen than it did fighting ISIS, so far.

Meanwhile, Iran could be a powerful ally against ISIS and could help stabilize Iraq further.

Just sayin’

+1
Good post

#228 VH on 09.06.15 at 9:00 am

I enjoy this blog and agree with most points made in it by you with the exception of the US eek-onomy and your disillusionment that it is ‘recovering’ and that interest rates in the US will rise. On the latter, they can’t raise rates..it would collapse the “bubble recovery” they have created.

Below are links to those who live within the borders of that nation where you claim that the so-called ‘recovery’, that you so often write about, is occurring:

‘MOAR Debt!’

Link: https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=230635

‘Employment Report: Hmmm….’

Link: https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=230630

‘Meet QT; QE’s Evil Twin’

Link: http://www.europac.com/commentaries/meet_qt_qes_evil_twin

‘No, the Federal Reserve Cannot Set Interest Rates’

Link: http://dailysignal.com/2015/08/26/no-the-federal-reserve-cannot-set-interest-rates/

‘Fed Most Certainly Will Not Raise Interest Rates’

Link: http://usawatchdog.com/fed-most-certainly-will-not-raise-interest-rates-paul-craig-roberts/