Lessons

PUPPY modified

This week Wall Street lost a thousand points in mere minutes on Monday and by Friday hosted the biggest two-day rally in six years. Oil crashed by 10% in a single day, then finished the week gaining 16% in two sessions. On Tuesday the mainstream media was wall-to-wall doomerism, screaming “Stocks CRASH.” On Friday they still couldn’t get enough of the whacko who lit up two reporters. The stunning financial recovery was boring.

This is a world in which Ashley Madison and Donald Trump matter. The economy and bond yields don’t stand a chance. It’s no wonder most people are financial illiterates who end up with maybe a house and a mortgage, while expecting the government to send them cheques.

Remember the four things this pathetic blog told you when the markets took a dump?

  • Corrections are normal. Corrections are good. They blow off steam, prevent bubbles and reset markets at more realistic levels. Despite that, people always react the same way, because fear is greater than greed.
  • Nothing about the US changed. America’s job-spewing recovery continues, corporate profits are good and growth is robust. In fact we now know that economic expansion has exceeded all expectations.
  • China will fix itself, but it’s the US that really matters.
  • Commodities are oversold. Prices are below levels experienced during the GFC when the world was contracting, and yet today the world is growing. “It’s hard to see how this will not snap back.” I said. And it did.
  • Create a balanced, diversified portfolio and ignore any storm that comes along. Having both fixed income and growth assets, plus the right geographic mix (little maple, even less China) will mitigate losses. So when the TSX was down 11%, this portfolio was off a faction of that.

Most people will never have this kind of portfolio, never max their TFSA, never find the discipline to invest, never get investment help, never understand markets or financial events, and never try. When reversals come and the media shouts at them, they’ll bail, take a loss and blame others. Most people have a one-asset strategy, embrace debt and ape their parents. In fairness, the biggest goals for the majority are to have a family and a nice house.

So, is it any wonder society’s self-dividing into the 1%, and the rest? If this week taught us anything, well exemplified by the comments on this blog, it’s how incredibly naïve and myopic many can be, even in an age when a few clicks will teach you anything.

Well, there’s more on the way.

The volatility is not over, and the coming weeks will bring more big swings on equity markets and in emotions. China has stemmed the wave of selling, but remains a manipulated market (what else would you expect in a socialist paradise?). The US central bank will raise rates in either September or October, depending on the next round of data. As the first hike in almost 10 years, and marking the start of a cycle of tightening, it will be consequential.

And poor Canada has its own swamp to crawl out of. On Tuesday we’ll get the latest economic data, and it won’t be pretty. The betting is the country contracted in the second quarter of the year by about 1%, on top of the 0.6% negative growth in the first three months. The loonie has fallen against the US dollar by 12% since the beginning of the year – a far worse record than the Chinese yuan. And while the snap-back in oil prices by Friday was welcome, the serious damage has already been done.

Calgary house sales are still running 26% behind last year. Retail sales at the West Edmonton Mall have tanked, and car sales in the West are sagging. The dollar volume of commercial real estate transactions in Cowtown has fallen 57% from last year. And the next round of labour stats for Canada is expected to be grim.

Says Capital Economics: “Further declines in commodity prices, droughts and weaker business confidence indicate that the economy is struggling to escape the mild recession that began in the first half of the year. We still expect the economy to return to positive growth in the second half of the year, but the recovery is going to be even more modest than we feared a couple of months ago.”

Many economists still expect the Bank of Canada to cut its key interest a third time next month, even as the Fed is clearly heading in the opposite direction. That would throw more misery on the loonie, as well as the trading on Bay Street. Thus the yawning gap between the US and us grows right along with the divide between the wealthy and the wannabes. If folks think real estate will save their butts as the economy contracts and rates inevitably rise, may Allah be with them.

By the way, a lead story generated by Bloomberg at the end of the week was about Canada being a bigger threat to the US than China. Maybe Stephen Colbert was right all along?

There is a way out, of course. And it’s not just voting NDP. Do what your neighbours are not – become liquid, balanced and diversified. Between now and Christmas you’ll see why.

273 comments ↓

#1 Gabe on 08.28.15 at 6:23 pm

And a Conservative government wouldn’t manipulate markets, would it? Or politicize the Bank of Canada?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/in-rare-move-harper-talks-directly-with-poloz-about-market-upheaval/article26084979/

#2 Dirty debtor on 08.28.15 at 6:26 pm

The annual back to school sale is over, and those who held on and bought in are seeing their gains.

Meanwhile YVR economy is buzzing along. Stepped off a plane on thursday and into a job on monday without making a phone call. Wasnt even looking for a job.

Keep reading about poor economic performance, but 604 seems busier than usual.

#3 nubbers on 08.28.15 at 6:26 pm

‘it’s how incredibly naïve and myopic many can be, even in an age when a few clicks will teach you anything’

The trouble is that anything (on the internet) includes a lot of junk. Unless you already know your stuff, it is very hard to filter out the tiny fraction of worthwhile knowledge from the huge heaping piles of garbage that have been so freely posted without any sort of controls or peer review.

#4 Randy Randerson on 08.28.15 at 6:28 pm

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-28/while-many-panicked-japanese-day-trader-made-34-million

Bloomberg’s article GT referred to. Time to bail out of Maple assets! Buy Bale Eagle assets now!

#5 Randy Randerson on 08.28.15 at 6:29 pm

Correction, *Bald.

#6 Fed-up on 08.28.15 at 6:31 pm

Happy Halloween and Merry Christmas for the liquid, balanced and diversified.

For the house humpers, meh, not so much.

#7 MSM-Free Zone on 08.28.15 at 6:40 pm

“…..but remains a manipulated market (what else would you expect in a socialist paradise?)……”
_________________________

That’s a little rich, don’t you think?

Considering it was a ‘capitalist’ paradise that blew its brains out in 2008 bringing the entire financial world to its knees, only to be rescued by an intense ‘socialism’ of tax-payer funded bank bailouts.

Socialist? Capitalist? Makes no difference. Without openness, transparency, accountability (sound lackingly familiar?) along with integrity and regulatory oversight, either one is doomed to certain failure.

#8 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.28.15 at 6:40 pm

@Julia #261-

People are “attacking women” on the Internet? Really? If you consider men stating some of their life experiences as “attacks” then I might suggest you and your ilk (gut check, I’m talkin’ to you) are a wee bit too sensitive.

Keep rebuildin’ that mound “ladies”.

#9 Randy Randerson on 08.28.15 at 6:41 pm

#2 nubbers on 08.28.15 at 6:26 pm

Most people are too tired being a wage slave at their jobs to think critically when they get home. They just want to watch TV, find simple and fast solutions to their woes. That explains the popularity of Jim Cramer and Mad Money, and Zerohedge.

#10 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.28.15 at 6:41 pm

PS- The title pic is the cutest dog pic I’ve ever seen.

#11 Londoner on 08.28.15 at 6:42 pm

On Tuesday the mainstream media was wall-to-wall doomerism, screaming “Stocks CRASH.” On Friday they still couldn’t get enough of the whacko who lit up two reporters. The stunning financial recovery was boring.

We don’t need no education
We don’t need no thought control

#12 Bobby13 on 08.28.15 at 6:43 pm

Best lesson I’ve learned here is you can be wrong most of the time and people will still listen if they like your story. Also, markets go up 100%ish in 7-8 years and go down 10% and they call it a correction. I’m still trying to figure out why I keep reading this blog???

#13 Greg on 08.28.15 at 6:45 pm

Hi #113 Nosty, etc.,
I wondered if you saw this article, titled in link,
http://www.infowars.com/china-confirms-it-has-begun-liquidating-treasuries-warns-washington/

#14 OttawaMike on 08.28.15 at 6:45 pm

Then there is this guy on Bloomberg, the the contrarian:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-28/why-predictions-of-another-drop-in-canada-output-may-prove-wrong

#15 OttawaMike on 08.28.15 at 6:46 pm

#189 bill on 08.28.15 at 5:55 pm

just starting the old 490 would give a fellow religion…
——————-

Used to run 465 Yammie and 430 Hondas plus the Can Am 400’s but didn’t make expert class until I went down to the 200s.

As the boys in open used to say”What is your wife riding today, with you racing her bike”

#16 53 Days to an NDP Government! on 08.28.15 at 6:47 pm

“There is a way out, of course. And it’s not just voting NDP.”

;) Message received, Garth.

We knew you were too smart not to be part of the much-needed change from that prick Harper.

#17 jess on 08.28.15 at 6:48 pm

donald trump matters?

Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist David Cay Johnston, who has covered Trump off and on for 27 years. He recently wrote an article for The National Memo titled “21 Questions for Donald Trump.”

http://www.democracynow.org/2015/8/19/david_cay_johnston_21_questions_for

#18 Waterloo Resident on 08.28.15 at 6:49 pm

So, are Toronto home prices still climbing 17% year over year,,,,,, Still?

(I have no clue, I live in Waterloo, and homes here sell in less than a week after listing.)

#19 Serenity Now on 08.28.15 at 6:52 pm

@ #1, Dirty Debtor
What kind of job did you stumble into?

#20 Freedom First on 08.28.15 at 6:59 pm

Good day everyone. I wish the best for everyone. Especially me. I know Garth feels the same way, (except for the me part) , and it’s why he writes this pathetic Blog. Altruism is rare today.

As I have said I have lived in 4 Provinces, and currently reside in Alberta. An update to my ear to the ground report on Alberta. (Remember, I reported the layoffs on here that were happening in the oil patch before the msm finally came clean because they had to). Well, the redneck arrogance has all but disappeared in Alberta now. Don’t get me wrong, Albertans are friendly people once you learn to get past their MacMoney attitude, truck nutz, and mansions lust.

Well, people are openly talking about their situations of being over leveraged, many on rental property as well as their own house. That’s people of all ages too. Everyone knows someone who has been laid off, and people are worried about their own employment. The fear is palpable, and now even the msm has reported there is many more layoffs coming in Alberta, especially in the oil and gas sector. Also, there is EI recipients getting near the end of their benefits, and are starting to look for any job to tide them over until they can resume working for the big bucks. These people are not just people I know telling me this, but, and because I am such a lovable friendly guy, total strangers are disclosing their intimate financial worries to me. I try to help where I can, as you all know. I really do care. And I know I am useless to others if I am not looking after myself. I exercise no complaining, no explaining, total control over my emotions, and always man up to every situation. And, as always, my own Freedom First.

#21 Scumop on 08.28.15 at 7:00 pm

Maybe I am unusual, but I found watching the market go a bit crazy more entertaining than scary. Its doing what you should expect it to do from time to time. Grab some popcorn and enjoy the show.

The only negative is having $0 to get buying as the bargains appear.

As for the Trump popularity thing, he is leading a big pack of competitors on a popularity split. Looks more like 3/4 of republicans are in “anyone but Trump” mode.

#22 awwwwwwwww!! on 08.28.15 at 7:02 pm

Thanks for making my heart melt Garth! Thanks a lot!!

#23 i.see.debt.people on 08.28.15 at 7:08 pm

Volatility is good for trading. Went all in Tuesday morning (a basket of oil stocks)….when people are fearful, be greedy. +35% today (Friday).

#24 BG on 08.28.15 at 7:11 pm

I was not ready to buy the sales. Damn those 2-3 days cash transfer delays.

I hope we do get some more, but I doubt it’s going to go that deep again soon.

#25 Prairieboy43 on 08.28.15 at 7:14 pm

Ottawa Mike. Yz465 sitting in my shop. Sold Maico 490 (81). Like Yz better. Big,bold, and powerful. Better than a Husaberg 540.
Upstream side oil taking a beating. Downstream laughing all the way to the bank.
Buddy working for Dow Chemical. There feedstock prices have dropped considerably. Now their (Dow)customers want a better deal. Squeeze, squeeze, squeeze!!

#26 common sense on 08.28.15 at 7:14 pm

Volatile???? My guess is the next 3 months will look like a 1976 teenage drinking party….

Funny how the fed had to pump in so much money last Monday…FREE market? And had to “hint” a rate increase “may not” happen…

What a joke…

In the words of Bette Davis “Fasten your seatbelts, it’s going to be a bumpy night.”

#27 espressobob on 08.28.15 at 7:15 pm

The recent pullback in “Mr. Market” seems like a tease? Almost, but not quite. Fear, yes but lacking capitulation.

Hopefully an opportunity awaits. A good one!

#28 Interstellar Old Yeller on 08.28.15 at 7:18 pm

It’s easier to be a non-panicker with your guidance, Garth. Thank you!

#29 Daisy Mae on 08.28.15 at 7:19 pm

“This is a world in which Ashley Madison and Donald Trump matter.”

******************

Is it any wonder, then, why all levels of government treat us like the idiots we are? ;-)

#30 B Riding Dirty on 08.28.15 at 7:20 pm

#1 Dirty debtor on 08.28.15 at 6:26 pm

Welcome home! Good to see you back on top,#1 here tonight. Obviously as usual you are not working hard at work today.

For a lot of us it was a wake up call to the power of the world economic power synergy. Even with a diversified portfolio it got whacked hard! I usually like a hard whacking but this time it didn’t feel good!

But Garth, staying calm is great advice. Also your heading a few days ago “Be A Man”

But still Dirty Debtor is right, busy out here, advice not to buy a home out in 604 may not be smart, hard to see change out here for a few more years. And at growth of 10-15% year, even when it does correct you will be still at your entry price into the market.

But who knows! I am going with the model best investment is a business! So here’s to hopefully starting a new venture of a Saturday Flee Market for the people!

#31 jeff on 08.28.15 at 7:21 pm

“…..but remains a manipulated market (what else would you expect in a socialist paradise?)……”

____________

pfft, without the Fed in 2008 your precious capitalist system would have fallen apart….not to mention the trillions of dollars still lost to individuals and states around the world via the derivatives market, default swaps, etc., calculated by the greed of hedge fund managers and Wall Street bankers….manipulated markets indeed….

#32 Yvr bonanza on 08.28.15 at 7:21 pm

I cannot convince anybody in yvr that the housing market is overvalued, despite that i get:
One colleague upgraded location more central and doubled his mortgage.
Another one got a 700k lot in burnaby and plans to build a 4000sqft monster for 500$ total 1.2 mil if everything falls in place and 2 suites included
Another friend plans to build over his 370.000 bought in 2006 house another one for 400k
Nobody believe in higher interest rates, this year moves by BoC was criminal for vancouver and eternal fear of being priced out by rich foreigners. I don’t doubt they exists maybe even up to 5% of the market but the rest are locals. Most of the people are working in the FIRE and construction industry. I cannot see a happy ending

#33 waiting on the westcoast on 08.28.15 at 7:21 pm

For Mark when he gets back….

Explains some of the nuances of being a reserve currency (tames inflationary pressures) and how inflationary currency devaluations are to non-reserve currencies (like Canada).

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-28/a-currency-drop-is-inflationary-right-

#34 Smartalox on 08.28.15 at 7:25 pm

@Nubbers (#2):

The trouble is that anything (on the internet) includes a lot of junk. Unless you already know your stuff, it is very hard to filter out the tiny fraction of worthwhile knowledge from the huge heaping piles of garbage that have been so freely posted without any sort of controls or peer review.

One thing the internet has taught me, it’s that filtering the good from the bad is less about what people KNOW and more about what people BELIEVE.

#35 OttawaMike on 08.28.15 at 7:31 pm

#16 jess on 08.28.15 at 6:48 pm

Good dirt on Trump story. Thanks.

#36 Dirty Debtor on 08.28.15 at 7:32 pm

#18 Serenity Now

commercial (non residential) construction

lots of friends in the field in 604, and everybody is busy.

#37 Renter's Revenge! on 08.28.15 at 7:33 pm

“By the way, a lead story generated by Bloomberg at the end of the week was about Canada being a bigger threat to the US than China. Maybe Stephen Colbert was right all along?”

Canada is the US’s #1 export market? So when Canada sneezes, the US will catch a cold! Bwahaha!

And now for some funny math (probably the kind Donald Trump uses):

Since exports to Canada account for 20% of total US exports, and the US economy is 10 times the size of Canada’s, that means that US exports to Canada are 2 times the size Canada’s economy!

#38 Retired Boomer - WI on 08.28.15 at 7:36 pm

The end of the week. China appears to be selling US Treasuries and may use the proceeds to help stabilize the Yuan.
Good, that may force up longer term treasury rates, which should;d have been done before Janet’s recent diddlying. Goose ’em up 1 -1.5 % the world will not end, maybe burp a wee bit. That might put more pressure on a Sept bump on short rates of that .25 or, could it be… even a .5%?? I dream big, but rates will be elevating, whether by decree or, market force.
We will just add that into the sudden bump in oil, and what of it? Still too cheap.
Glad I don’t use leverage, pressure building there, and who said thew correction has run its course?
Follow the plan, and never fret the daily noise. It always changes, like our underwear, sometime with brown streaks from fear, other times just normal wear & tear…

#39 OttawaMike on 08.28.15 at 7:38 pm

#24 Prairieboy43 on 08.28.15 at 7:14 pm

I bought the YZ465 brand new in Toronto in ’81 for $2485 inc. tax.
Set it up for enduro racing. Amazing machine, which still commands a premium on the vintage moto-x circuit.

I am curious what the Maico fetched?

I sold my collection of vintage moto-x mags and posters in 2005 when the CAD was low and fetched almost $25 for some copies. The factory poster for that Maico went to an Australian on eBay for something like $50.

Maico –Breako was not a big force in the east. Dealerships were much more common in the west.

Disclaimer:Subject is on topic with the blog since vintage motocross paraphernalia is an investment.

#40 Joseph R. on 08.28.15 at 7:43 pm

The Albertan royalty review panel has announced that there will be no changes to royalties before at least 2017:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-royalty-review-no-changes-to-rates-before-2017-1.3207381

A bit of relief of the oil sands operators, at least for the time being. Despite that, another round of layoffs (10%) is expected in September and October

#41 Nora Lenderby on 08.28.15 at 7:43 pm

#7 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.28.15 at 6:40 pm
@Julia #261-
“People are “attacking women” on the Internet? Really? If you consider men stating some of their life experiences as “attacks” then I might suggest you and your ilk (gut check, I’m talkin’ to you) are a wee bit too sensitive.

Sometimes I can read some sense coming from some of the posters here. It’s an education and I mean that with only a little irony.

Believe it or not, this wasn’t one of them. You have said some interesting things in the past so I was a bit surprised.

Do feel free to vent your anguished inner child, dear.

#42 salmon rear end arm on 08.28.15 at 7:44 pm

OttawaMike on 08.28.15 at 6:46 pm
#189 bill on 08.28.15 at 5:55 pm

just starting the old 490 would give a fellow religion…
——————-

Used to run 465 Yammie and 430 Hondas plus the Can Am 400’s but didn’t make expert class until I went down to the 200s.

As the boys in open used to say”What is your wife riding today, with you racing her bike”

Honda 430 ?? cr 480 r

#43 Nora Lenderby on 08.28.15 at 7:46 pm

#35 OttawaMike on 08.28.15 at 7:31 pm

Still no apology? Shame.

#44 i.see.debt.people on 08.28.15 at 7:47 pm

http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forums/150mm-day-trader-hermit

#45 Daisy Mae on 08.28.15 at 7:51 pm

#6: “Without openness, transparency, accountability (sound lackingly familiar?) along with integrity and regulatory oversight, either one is doomed to certain failure.”

********************

Yes, unfortunately for Canadians, it does sound familiar. The NDP is not the answer. However, I don’t know what is….

#46 Smoking Man on 08.28.15 at 7:52 pm

Seneca is rocking tonight…

And I’m not into the party, I shared the first 4 chapters of my book with a fellow blog dog,, a gifted artist might I add.. She’s going to do my book cover..

The encouragement and kind words snaped me out of my coma and why bother with this, I only have 50 or so fans.

I’m tuned out and hammering keys strokes like a mad man.. Haven’t even gambled yet.

You know who you are…

Thanks….

#47 Prairieboy43 on 08.28.15 at 7:52 pm

Ottawa Mike. Yes Vintage Mx is an investment of your time. A lot of it!
Old Maico 490 (Barn Find). In Central AB many years ago. $50.00. New piston/Rings, refurbish, hold for 8 years. Sell $5500.00. Now bike would sell maybe 8-10k.
Wife happy one less bike, I continue with hobby. She gets a dinner out on me. Win/Win.

#48 Obvious Truth on 08.28.15 at 7:59 pm

Treasuries and utilities were telling the story.

They still are.

Could growth really be the leader?

#49 Big Picture on 08.28.15 at 8:03 pm

Stephen Harper has been a genius at achieving his goal of shrinking government.

In the ’50s and ’60s, when we had a healthy middle class, both corporate and personal tax rates were substantially higher than they are now. Along came Milton Friedman and the Chicago School of Economics (with Reagan and Thatcher as disciples) and corporate tax rates were slashed and personal taxes made less progressive (i.e., the rich paid less) on the theory that they would create jobs and the benefits would “trickle down” to the rest of us. They didn’t, as Picketty has proven.

Harper has followed this game plan. Tax cuts are popular after all. And we must keep taxes on corporations and the rich “competitive” with the other right-wing governments that are cutting theirs or they will leave. It’s a race to the bottom. And Harper knows that it will be difficult for successors to raise taxes even part way back to their former levels.

It was a genius plan: shrink taxes to starve government (and the CBC, the arts, evironmental scientists and other things Stephen Harper hates). And who would dare take back the tax break from hockey parents!

We need to reverse course and slowly undo the damage.

#50 OttawaMike on 08.28.15 at 8:04 pm

More proof that there is no God:

http://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/sarah-palin-to-interview-donald-trump-and-jeb-bush/270761

#51 BC Guy on 08.28.15 at 8:06 pm

Sure, the 1% don’t have a single-asset strategy. They have a million dollar house, a half-million dollar cottage, a million dollar balanced investment portfolio and a half million dollar condo in Florida. Nice and balanced.

The rest of the 99% spend twenty or thirty years getting an education, paying off the debt, saving a down-payment for a condo, pay the condo for five years, then save up enough for a starter home, then work another ten years, saving and working towards a mid-level home. Then they get laid off by big-corporate during a wave of downsizing so that the CEOs can get bigger bonuses and stock options. Then their dreams of moving into a nicer home and neighbourhood dry up as they scramble to get a near-minimum wage-slave job for a large American big box store like Walmart just to make ends meet.

And then they’re told by 1%’ers like Garth Turner and Kevin O’Leary that it’s their own damn fault they’re struggling, they’re too stupid to save enough dough to get rich on the stock market and they’re too stupid to write the next killer app or brainstorm a Dragon’s Den startup winner. They’re too stupid and should just shut the F up and keep voting Conservative. Cause the Cons have their back, cutting taxes to corporations at the same time as they’re cutting their OAS pensions.

The average Joe-bag-O-donuts doesn’t expect a handout, they just want decent work at a decent wage and not have every middle-class job downsized by a corporation or cost-cutting Conservative govt, so they’re gonna vote NDP come hell or high water.

And what will that accomplish, bitter guy? — Garth

#52 Prairieboy43 on 08.28.15 at 8:09 pm

Ottawa Mike. Latest Investment is Condor A580. Suisse WW2 bike.
My Motto don’t loose money. Buy stuff appreciates, skim off your cream. Have Fun!!
60/40 long term Investor
Like” Freedom First”, not a debt slave.
PB43

#53 Nora Lenderby on 08.28.15 at 8:16 pm

#11 Bobby13 on 08.28.15 at 6:43 pm
Best lesson I’ve learned here is you can be wrong most of the time and people will still listen if they like your story.

Ah yes, the secret of politics, perhaps. Only tell people what they want to hear. It’s tricky though. A great example is poor Mr. Prentice who had a fit of honesty when he said something about looking in the mirror.

Clearly what he meant was, “Well you elected this bunch of turkeys and weasels, what were you thinking?”

What people heard was different.

Also, markets go up 100%ish in 7-8 years and go down 10% and they call it a correction. I’m still trying to figure out why I keep reading this blog???

For the quality of the advice and wit (Mr. T’s anyway). The comments are a bit sad and limp in my opinion.

Let’s try and stiffen it up a bit, people.

#54 james on 08.28.15 at 8:19 pm

#2

“Meanwhile YVR economy is buzzing along. Stepped off a plane on thursday and into a job on monday without making a phone call. Wasnt even looking for a job.”

Buzzing eh? What ‘industry’ did you get a job in?

That’s not the story I hear from Canadians sending in their resumes en masse. I interview at least 4 a month.

This is a province that was gushing over Microsoft’s plans to build a holding pen for largely foreign workers while they await their H1B visa permits. The software industry, electrical engineering and a few other industries in Vancouve are not doing well. I can’t imagine the mining or gold companies are doing well, nor forestry.

Well, I guess houses are selling. So all the spinoffs from that industry. Maybe a bit of tourism. I wonder about retail given rising debt levels.

#55 Bob Santarossa on 08.28.15 at 8:22 pm

604 will crack end of year or earlier if GDP and job numbers bad this Sept. Also 604 still a commodities driven economy and that is tanking – ask China.

Flash crash of real estate as in 2009, early 80s and early 90s…just a matter of time. Been thru all of them and the next is coming this year. Why liquidated and invested.

But hey dream and party on…have fun with the hangover and hole in your pockets that will take years to heal.

#56 Dirty Debtor on 08.28.15 at 8:39 pm

How many Vancouverites to screw in a lightbulb? 1 – just put it above their head and the world will revolve around them. you can even watch the how-to video on HGTV

On a global scale, we are a tiny village. With limited economic diversity, thin profit margins, and slow growth.

@ #30 B Riding Dirty

Dirt in 604 still way over-valued.

If it was a good investment, you’d see way more foreign money going down on it than the little there arguably is.

#57 waiting on the westcoast on 08.28.15 at 8:52 pm

#37 Renter’s Revenge! on 08.28.15 at 7:33 pm
“And now for some funny math (probably the kind Donald Trump uses):

Since exports to Canada account for 20% of total US exports, and the US economy is 10 times the size of Canada’s, that means that US exports to Canada are 2 times the size Canada’s economy!”

The US economy is not just it’s exports.. that is why your math appears funny.

#58 Canadian Mortgage fraud on 08.28.15 at 8:54 pm

Imagine the junk they would find if a third party were to open up all the mortgages over the last few years to see what they find? Mortgage fraud is so common in Canada and everyone knows it.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/big-banks-defend-mortgage-scrutiny-in-wake-of-home-capital-fraud-allegations-1.3206970

#59 Newbie on 08.28.15 at 9:02 pm

Alternative (real) statistics http://www.shadowstats.com

#60 SunShowers on 08.28.15 at 9:02 pm

“There is a way out, of course. And it’s not just voting NDP. Do what your neighbours are not – become liquid, balanced and diversified.”

I plan on doing both.
Believe it or not, Mulcair is the one promising balanced budgets, while Trudeau trumpets 3 more years of deficits like it’s a good thing. And Harper is a tool, something I’m sure you know better than anyone.

#61 Balmuto on 08.28.15 at 9:09 pm

“Commodities are oversold. Prices are below levels experienced during the GFC when the world was contracting, and yet today the world is growing. “It’s hard to see how this will not snap back.” I said. And it did. – Garth”

Hat-tip to you for that call. You may very well have called the bottom in commodities to the day.

#62 Smoking Man on 08.28.15 at 9:10 pm

Damn, just learned a reg at senica, Steven, Died on monday, 61 years old, fitness nut.. Didn’t smoke or drink.. He was only here to please his young trophy wife who loved the slots..

She’s here tonight. I think. A bit of fog on my glasses.

He was a Roger waters look alike….

Rest in peace bro.

#63 For those about to flop... on 08.28.15 at 9:12 pm

Freedom First @ all your posts .
Every time I accidentally read your crap I remind myself that there are approximately 3.5 billion females on the planet and that each and everyone of them are the luckiest lady on the planet for not ending up with you!
Stay crusty my friend…

#64 John on 08.28.15 at 9:16 pm

The China story is mort. Canada’s currency has crashed against the US by at least 25% — stick a fork in that one on your net worth.

Bonus.. Raoul Pal:
“I think the whole consumption-is-going-to-increase argument is groupthink and is not borne out by evidence or rigorous analysis. It sounds appealing at first hearing, but that is it. I’m still very bearish on oil and that is going to have an even bigger effect if it starts to fall again.” pdf

#65 Timmy on 08.28.15 at 9:18 pm

Environment Canada scientist who specializes in bird migrations has been placed on leave with pay after penning and performing protest song calling for PM to stand down.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015/08/28/singing-federal-civil-servant-placed-on-leave-for-scathing-harperman-song.html

Unbelievable that this happened in Canada

#66 not me on 08.28.15 at 9:20 pm

#32 Yvr bonanza on 08.28.15 at 7:21 pm

…’and plans to build a 4000sqft monster for 500$’..

good luck with that one.

#67 Smoking Man on 08.28.15 at 9:21 pm

Steve was taken away by cancer..

I have a theory, you feed cancer a salad, v8 drinks, whole foods..run, bike.. You just feed the bastard.

Feed him, JD, a bottle of wine, two packs of smokes a day.

Mr cancer shits his boxers, and goes to eat off a healthier host…

I’m going to miss my sobar pall at the bar who always got me a security escort back to my room.

Life sucks sometimes

#68 Joe2.0 on 08.28.15 at 9:21 pm

Garth what are you smoking?
You talk as though the markets are normal.
As soon as there’s any mention of no more QE it dumps.
Or when they say that QE’s going to be pushed down the road the market goes up.
QE is normal and the low bank rates is normal?
Yikes

#69 Joe2.0 on 08.28.15 at 9:26 pm

Typo
Got emotional.
When they say no interest rate hike markets go up.
Markets are broken, no ifs or buts.

#70 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.28.15 at 9:27 pm

Nora, your stiff upper lip Englishwoman schtick is getting old.

This is the 21st Century, and shaming doesn’t work anymore, dear.

Would you care to counter my point vis a vis men’s life experiences?

#71 John on 08.28.15 at 9:31 pm

Cons are on the skids in the polls. May end up in 3rd place if this trend picks up speed. The speed may pick up if unemployment starts hitting close to home. And, when the home fires starting singing repo songs, then folks may actually get off their duffs and go out and vote this October. As pointed out by Garth awhile back, holding an election in a recession is a recipe for bad news for the governing party. The guy in orange shorts may take on new meaning.. lol

#72 John on 08.28.15 at 9:34 pm

Speaking of orange… did any of you notice that the Liberal lawn signs are only a couple of notches off being orange… In Calgary the winners of the lawn sign wars may actually end up being real estate for sale signs!!! Reduced price..

#73 Victory on 08.28.15 at 9:41 pm

@ #48 Big Picture

Standard operating procedure for neo-con giveaways to private industry:

Step 1 – Underfund the public sector (education, health care, roads, what have you).

Step 2 – Wait until the problems are at “crisis levels” and blame government ineptitude.

Step 3 – Propose a solution that benefits private interests (your donors).

Here’s a classic case:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Privatisation_of_British_Rail

#74 45north on 08.28.15 at 9:46 pm

Bobby13: Best lesson I’ve learned here is you can be wrong most of the time and people will still listen if they like your story.

and the story is low interest rates and high house prices. On that all three parties agree.

Yvr bonanza: One colleague upgraded to a more central location and doubled his mortgage.

a lot of people are going to be hurting when house prices go down

#75 Panhead on 08.28.15 at 9:49 pm

#60 Smoking Man on 08.28.15 at 9:10 pm
Damn, just learned a reg at senica, Steven, Died on monday, 61 years old, fitness nut.. Didn’t smoke or drink.. He was only here to please his young trophy wife who loved the slots..

——————————————————-
That’s what happens when you are just too healthy … you die of nothing at all.

#76 Blacksheep on 08.28.15 at 9:50 pm

OttawaMike, Prairieboy43,

Hey guys, this isn’t a motocross blog!

Actually…

I’m on the hunt for a clean 1975, XR 75, first dirt bike I ever owned, I got it new for my 12 th birthday. Going to restore it and hang it in the shop.

I remember when I first got it, my parents wouldn’t let me leave the yard with it, that was until after about 3 days of my burning laps around the house, nice little berms had formed in the front and back lawn.

Then, they told me to leave the yard.

Simpler times…

Where did you guys race?

#77 Steerage bilge on 08.28.15 at 9:52 pm

Bars still bumping in cowtown. Party on.

#78 saskatoon on 08.28.15 at 10:03 pm

#58 SunShowers

not.

#79 Smoking Man on 08.28.15 at 10:04 pm

Everytime I lose someone I like.

Always go back to this tune… Sorry savers

https://youtu.be/G5NtzB-voZo

#80 Blacksheep on 08.28.15 at 10:10 pm

Sun # 58,

“Believe it or not, Mulcair is the one promising balanced budgets,”

“while Trudeau trumpets 3 more years of deficits like it’s a good thing”.

“And Harper is a tool, something I’m sure you know better than anyone.”
——————————————————
Mulcair is lying, Harper is lying, Trudeau is being honest (on the budget) and is on the right track.

If we are in recession, the gov needs to spend and replace the broke ass consumer.

Harper should have been running surpluses to use on a rainy day, but he’s too busy trying to be a player.

#81 Berniebee on 08.28.15 at 10:18 pm

#2 Dirty Debtor
“Stepped off a plane on thursday and into a job on monday without making a phone call. ”

Yes, the Tim Horton’s at the airport does have high turnover. How “suite” it is to be living on minimum wage in YVR.

BTW, be careful how you interpret economic activity: the homeless people lined up to return bottles at the liquor store are not a leading indicator.

#82 45north on 08.28.15 at 10:25 pm

MSM-free zone: Socialist? Capitalist? Makes no difference. Without openness, transparency, accountability along with integrity and regulatory oversight, either one is doomed to certain failure.

well I would argue that even with openness, transparency and accountability they face an uphill battle. Municipal politics is open, transparent and accountable but it is très compliqué It’s all right to start out simplistic but unless you can back that up with in-depth knowledge, shrewd dealings and years of hard work you’re not going to get very far.

Here’s the story that inspires my caution:
http://ottawacitizen.com/news/politics/reevely-ottawas-former-planning-boss-goes-into-business-with

oh and by the way, in the article “to advice” is simply wrong. It should be “to advise”. The verb.

#83 Marco on 08.28.15 at 10:25 pm

@Sunshowers

“Believe it or not, Mulcair is the one promising balanced budgets, while Trudeau trumpets 3 more years of deficits like it’s a good thing.”

Mulcair won’t achieve a balanced budget without austerity. With all his campaign promises, doesn’t seem plausible.
Trudeau on the other hand, doesn’t mince words, he will run a deficit, stimulate the economy with infrastructure funding. Job creation.
Paul Martin calls Harper “the king of deficits”.
Paul Martin supports Justin’s plan, enough for me.

Cheers.

#84 christ on 08.28.15 at 10:26 pm

i borrowed 100K last june as an investment loan with B2B Bank. Invested it in a well diversified portfolio with the help of my advisor. I pay back only the interests (300$ per month). Interests are deductible! So far i have paid 600$ in interests. The value of the investment is now worth 104 717$ as of tonight (even after this crazy week). Life is good!

#85 Just Checking on 08.28.15 at 10:29 pm

#8 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.28.15 at 6:40 pm
Keep rebuildin’ that mound “ladies”.

You’re a class A jerk. Sexist Neanderthal go back to your cave!

#86 bill on 08.28.15 at 10:33 pm

blacksheep ,ottawa mike and Prairieboy43
maico breako…oh yeah! google maico and read the whole sordid tale…
suffice to say I found a lot of older parts on my alpha 1…
My 250 and 490 were very competitve bikes but that chain primary wasnt up to the 250’s 37 hp let alone the 50 or so the 490 was putting out.
on one occasion the lower fork tube just shattered while riding along. rock might of hit it but the quality control while the Maico bros fought was pathetic.
when I get the cash to spare AND the initiative I have a enduro transmission for the 490.
more flywheel effect and a very low first gear.
the mx trans made for scary speeds on tight trails….
didnt race..well a bit on the ‘night shift’….

#87 Frank on 08.28.15 at 10:34 pm

Yeah yeah, don’t gorge on real estate and keep a balanced portfolio. You’re preaching to the choir.

Times of hurt are when people with high liquidity do well. It’s how fortunes are made. So when and where do we strike?

#88 Freedom First on 08.28.15 at 10:41 pm

#52 Nora Lenderby

First, welcome to the Blog. I have already enjoyed some of your comments. Relax Nora, we will grow on you. Not sure if we will be able to give you a stiffie though.

#89 BS on 08.28.15 at 10:52 pm

50:

Sure, the 1% don’t have a single-asset strategy. They have a million dollar house, a half-million dollar cottage, a million dollar balanced investment portfolio and a half million dollar condo in Florida. Nice and balanced.

The rest of the 99% spend twenty or thirty years getting an education, paying off the debt, saving a down-payment for a condo, pay the condo for five years, then save up enough for a starter home, then work another ten years, saving and working towards a mid-level home. Then they get laid off by big-corporate during a wave of downsizing so that the CEOs can get bigger bonuses and stock options. Then their dreams of moving into a nicer home and neighbourhood dry up as they scramble to get a near-minimum wage-slave job for a large American big box store like Walmart just to make ends meet.

And then they’re told by 1%’ers like Garth Turner and Kevin O’Leary that it’s their own damn fault they’re struggling…

You are confused. I will simplify if for you.

Although the 1% may own real estate, they buy it after becoming rich not prior. The 1% invest first and usually start a business and after success they buy the RE.

The 99% tend to go all in on RE first and become a wage slave because the RE anchors them to a dead end job. They never have the money to invest or start a business because it goes all into a house. Then if they do get extra money every penny goes to a new car payment or a trip on the credit card. They never become rich.

The NDP won’t help you.

#90 Shawn on 08.28.15 at 10:52 pm

Canada matters little to the U.S.A.

Renters revenge said:

Since exports to Canada account for 20% of total US exports, and the US economy is 10 times the size of Canada’s, that means that US exports to Canada are 2 times the size Canada’s economy!”

And Waiting on Westcoast rightly responded:

The US economy is not just it’s exports.. that is why your math appears funny.

****************************************
Think of it this way. Exports and Imports represent about 35% of Canada GDP. USA is the largest trading partner. With them being 10 times larger the exports to Canada represents about 3.5% of their GDP.

If that slumps to 3.0% (which is a big drop) it is hardly noticeable to U.S.A. GDP.

Contrary to popular belief trade with other countries is not a requirement for a strong economy. (Witness the earth which trades with no other planet).

The U.S.A. has an economy that is largely devoted to trade within its own boundaries. Yeah, it exports and imports a lot. But compared to its total economy, trade is not as important to the USA as it is to Canada, not by a long measure.

#91 Steve French on 08.28.15 at 10:55 pm

Smoking Man:

“Live for Today”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9EDpbjNRFr4

#92 Freedom First on 08.28.15 at 10:59 pm

#61 For those about to flop….

Yes. I agree. It’s a win/win situation.

Remember, I have said if I was a woman I would still live the same way. Too many guys are high risk too. I am here to enjoy my life. Freedom First rules.

#93 Yuus bin Haad on 08.28.15 at 11:03 pm

Maybe Stephen Colbert was right all along? Bears?

#94 Chris on 08.28.15 at 11:04 pm

Vote for liberal is the sensible thing to do then. Seems to be the least evil of the three.

#95 Nora Lenderby on 08.28.15 at 11:05 pm

#68 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.28.15 at 9:27 pm
Nora, your stiff upper lip Englishwoman schtick is getting old.

Like me. Sad, but true :-)

This is the 21st Century, and shaming doesn’t work anymore, dear.

There is considerable evidence to the contrary. (But I accept that you may be personally shameless.)

Would you care to counter my point vis a vis men’s life experiences?

Life grinds most people into caricatures. We are all damaged. (No exception, as Mr. FF would say.) There is enough pain and hurt and grimness to go around.

The mistake, in my opinion, is seeing one’s experiences as somehow the fault of someone else you actually have never met.

And I seriously don’t understand why people are so unwelcoming to women posters on this comments section.

I presume that you have something to say. Say it clearly. Inflammatory comments just drive the point home that you might not be worth reading.

#96 Greg on 08.28.15 at 11:19 pm

Hi #69 John, re: 3rd
There are more than three parties in the run so you never know for sure were they end up until the votes are all tallied up. But it’s hard to tell there are more than three parties if you only get your news from the big Corporate owned media.

#97 Milla on 08.28.15 at 11:21 pm

Amazing photo:))

#98 maxx on 08.28.15 at 11:23 pm

27 August 2015:

“GIC-lovers and fear-biters who crave a market crash to justify their own wussiness.”

Yes, and one investment size fits all, eh wot?

I LOVE, LOVE, LOVE GICs – yet, I do not crave a market crash. Makes zero difference.

GICs have always served me well (since my teens) and afford a great night’s sleep. Most people haven’t the time, nor desire to put up with all of the “market’s” volatility and opacity. Both are WAY up now and going forward. Too much liquidity there and nowhere near enough in the real economy where jobs are usually found.

Diddling the “market” usually results in diddly squat. For most. As I’ve said in a previous post, I need a performance guarantee before I entrust ANY cash to an “investment professional”. No exceptions. Ever. As they don’t seem to exist, I will continue to LOVE GICs!

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-28/fed-up-investors-yank-cash-from-almost-everything-just-like-2008

#99 Carpe on 08.28.15 at 11:24 pm

#51 BC Guy

Garth, correct me if I’m wrong.

What Garth is suggesting is not vote NDP since voting for them will result in more taxes for corporations. There are lots of small ones, like mine which end up hiring less people.

The Liberals … they want to tax the rich people. I.E those execs that got more. The 1%.

NDP’s direction of taxing companies is stupid. Companies create jobs.

Taxing rich people sure sounds better from a socialist view point. Liberals are talking about this.

Me … I’m not rich but someday my company might break-thru and hire lots of people.

Or maybe I move my company down south and hire folks in Mexico for a lot less.

Tax me … ok. Tax my company … not ok.

#100 Greg on 08.28.15 at 11:34 pm

Hi #94 Chris,
There are more than three parties. They all can’t be, as you mentioned ‘evil’ can they? Do your best to make an informed choice and hope for the best. And if you feel you could do a good or better job and why wouldn’t you, I believe you still have time to run.

#101 Ron on 08.28.15 at 11:41 pm

You never cease to amaze me Garth. You are still on the US bandwagon that they are firing on all cylinders. A month or 2 ago I quoted stats that in the 50’s and 60’s the manufacturing sector employed a little more than 40% of the population. Today it is around 9 or 10%. It is now a country of consumers and a government who counterfeits money. You replied that the manufacturing sector has been replaced by a massive technology sector. I researched your statement and all technology represents approx. 2% of all jobs. You basically sound like all the YVR’s that talk about the helicopters of Chinese investors gobbling up all of Vancouver real estate. You are as delusional about the US as Vancouverites of their real estate always going up. The reality of the US is that they are identical to Greece. They totally and absolutely broke. The difference is they have their own currency and print all they want. It can keep going for a while but it has to collapse. I use this example to describe the US economy. Lets invent a guy named Bob. Bob’s brother in law is a bank manager named Sam. Bob makes $50,000 per year. Sam one day says to Bob…why don’t I give you a loan for $100,000. Bob says great and immediately goes out and buys a McMansion, new cars, etc. the next year he gets another $100,000 and for the next 20 years he keeps getting loans and spending like a drunken sailor. His neighbour….lets call him Garth….begins to think that Bob is this amazing businessman who is incredibly successful. Then one day Sam boss from head office says that the loans to Bob with interest is well over $5,000,000 and the loans have to stop. Sam breaks the news to Bob. He is shocked but he is so used to his lifestyle and feels so entitled to his fake life that he simply can’t go back to a simple existence. He goes home all depressed trying to figure out a way to keep the party going. His only answer is to turn on the home computer, the laser printer and he starts to counterfeit $100 bills. He is nervous at first when he starts spending them at different stores. They all know Bob and he has been their best customer for 20 years. They know the money is counterfeit but they don’t want to lose Bob as a consumer. They take his money and deposit it into the bank thinking that the bank won’t might not accept them. Much to their surprise the bank says nothing. After a while the whole city is taking in as much counterfeit bills as Bob can print. This is where we are right now. Bob/USA still looks like a winner. The big question is when are the banks in Bob’s town finally going to put an end to his criminal counterfeiting. Somewhere and at sometime the world markets are going to pull the plug on the US counterfeiting ring. I don’t know when and the
party may continue for a while but it has to end. When it does the markets won’t rebound.

#102 HFT Dude on 08.28.15 at 11:42 pm

I spent the last two weeks in the bush, no phone, no electricity, no Internet. Coming home this afternoon, I realized this had been a crazy week. In my younger days as a high-frequency trading algo dude, this would have been the most stressful times. But my algos allowed me to retire very early and because I peaked behind the curtain, I am sticking to passive investing with my own money. My Garth-style portfolio survived, I am down less than 4% for the month, and still in the black this year. Diversify, stay balanced, avoid fees, minimize taxes and sleep well at night. And as another poster keeps saying, put your Freedom First.

#103 Balmuto on 08.28.15 at 11:52 pm

NDP is in the lead because of Quebec. Simple as that. They only have to do reasonably well in the rest of the country to win the election. The Liberals used that playbook in the past many times to win. The big question mark is whether or not the Conservatives will win enough seats in small town/suburban Ontario to counter the “orange wave”. It worked last time. But you had a very weak Liberal party at that time. If Trudeau can split the non-NDP vote in Ontario it’s curtains for the Tories.

#104 Leo Trollstoy on 08.28.15 at 11:54 pm

#89 BS on 08.28.15 at 10:52 pm

This is so true.

Most people see the wealthy and assume that the home was purchased first. That’s 99% mentality.

The fortune was made first. The financial anchor (ie home) was bought later.

Only the 99% would acquire the anchor first.

#105 Leo Trollstoy on 08.29.15 at 12:00 am

Sure, the 1% don’t have a single-asset strategy. They have a million dollar house, a half-million dollar cottage, a million dollar balanced investment portfolio and a half million dollar condo in Florida. Nice and balanced.

The 1% get the investments first and the rest of that other junk later.

The 99% get all the junk first. And stay 99%.

#106 Nosty, etc. on 08.29.15 at 12:01 am

“Thus the yawning gap between the US and us grows right along with the divide between the wealthy and the wannabes.”

Dad (Nostradamus Jr.) was bang on only a few short years ago when he stated the US would bankrupt TROTW, while possibly moving to WW3. I’m listening to classical lightning-fast blues – rock (Johnny Winter and Stevie Ray Vaughan) to be even mildly disturbed by the stuff of this world.
*
#12 Greg on 08.28.15 at 6:45 pm — Hi Greg. I read about it a few weeks ago. Things are happening so quickly now.
*
SWL, Spectacle, SMan and a few others — A21 is now A30 on steroids, with a whole host of other goodies added on; Reality Check Guns or anti-depressants? Police State USA Drones with tasers and / or chemical weapons; Warp Speed in this century Traveling a mile per second; Koch dumped for Trump.

#107 Edward T Fragile on 08.29.15 at 12:10 am

#183 West Texas Trader on 08.28.15 at 4:47 pm
“Stocks have recovered in Europe and in China, where the index soared 5.3% amid more moves by the interventionist government to stabilize markets and restore investor confidence. ”

Yes…stocks recovered…..but the real story of the week was how ETF’s got hammered most by algorithm trades in what became a bottomless market Monday morning…..dispelling the myth that ETF’s are ‘safer than stocks’.

There is no market maker on the floor of any stock exchange trading ETF derivatives the way stocks are handled. That’s why when the crash open up wide it was the ETF’s that opened down as much as 50% and more…while stock handled it much better. Stock holders have for the most part recovered…many ETF holders will get some very bad news on their statements over the next two weeks.

Don’t say I didn’t tell you to trade stocks instead of passively avoiding the hard work of fundamental analysis..or hiring someone who understands how to analyze equity issues?

Buy main index, mainstream ETFs with lots of liquidity. Problem solved. — Garth

Garth,

Agree with you somewhat, but maybe it is time for you to write a full blog on the limitations of ETFs as well, so the rabble know what they are really getting into

see below

USA TODAY
Black Monday reveals the trouble with ETFs

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2015/08/28/downside-etfs-black-monday-china-halted-trades/71312286/?utm_source=feedblitz&utm_medium=FeedBlitzRss&utm_campaign=usatodaycommoney-topstories

#108 Vanecdotal on 08.29.15 at 12:15 am

#36 Dirty Debtor

Agree, commercial space springing up relentlessly across YVR, however the FOR LEASE signs that follow completion persist… and persist… already oversupplied. Market saturated. Job growth absent. Who’s leasing all these new spaces?

#32 Yvr bonanza

Agree, the fear of being priced out, esp. by foreign $ is palpable here. RE cartel will continue MILKING this perceived cow until a responsible (new?) government drops the regulatory hammer on them. Rates rising will be gravy. Creditworthiness as lenders tighten, & CRA cracks down on undeclared rental income and other FINTRAC “irregularities” coming to an overpriced 604 shite hole near you, likely sooner than later. Will be interesting to see how China’s slowing affects our RE market. Maybe a little, maybe a lot?

#55 Bob Santarossa
Also agree, stress cracks everywhere. People almost out of credit. Builder spec “luxury” flips continue piling up in the good ‘hoods. Swaths of “new” condos/townhomes for local worker bees can’t find buyers 3+ years post completion. Cheap credit only thing keeping the illusion alive. In the home stretch to correction it seems. It’s cozy here in the bunker, hunkering down for a long wet winter.

#54 james
Also agree. My first thought was “hospitality/service/tourism”. Yes, there are low paying, tip-reliant service jobs to be had. This is one of the “pillars” of the BC “economy” LOL. Quite a few openings, since the (often abused) TFW program got axed last year. You are spot on with your other observations, I can corroborate that. Would also add, in certain industries that appear to be “booming” right now, wage regression/suppression is the new normal. People just happy to have a job. ANY job. Even if they used to be paid more for the same, or less amount of work.

#109 John on 08.29.15 at 12:16 am

This kind of volatility is not “normal” The market is behaving like the beginnings of the Tacoma Bridge collapse,
Who knows the time frame

#110 millenial1982 on 08.29.15 at 12:32 am

Gee..maple used to be 20% of the balanced portfolio, then 15%. Is it even lower now??

#111 Sean on 08.29.15 at 12:38 am

Regarding Garth’s widely misinterpreted NDP comment… the problem is “there is no answer!!”. The problem is 40% or so or Canadians actually think the NDP is a viable choice! These are your co-workers, friends.. the people in your neighborhood. Another 20% or more think that vacuous little Jr. is a viable choice, despite any evidence of a platform of any substance. And this is coming from a guy who does not think much of Stephen Harper, nor who can understand why semi-reasonable fiscal policy always needs to get wrapped up with xenophobia and homophobia.

So (despite the scotch, and still trying to make a point).. the problem is, as usual, 60% plus of your fellow Canadians are sympathetic to some socialist loser who literally wants to take every wrong step for the country. The problem is, you live in a democracy, lol… and the majority believe in a big gov’t that will love them and take care of them and tuck them into bed at night.

Oh well, Garth’s answer is the ONLY ANSWER, and why I still love this blog. Take care of YOURSELF financially! Have the grace to accept the things you cannot change,
the courage to change the things you can, and the wisdom to know the difference.

If that sounds like a prayer.. it is! And you will need it once the Orange crush the land.. haha!

#112 Vanecdotal on 08.29.15 at 12:52 am

#99 Carpe

I appreciate your entrepreneurial perspective, as in a sense I share it. However, it’s the old chicken or the egg argument (“capitalist vs. socialist ideology”) re: taxation treatment of business.

True, as your co. grows, and profits increase, you may hire more workers. In reality though, the company does not “create” the jobs. The company exists in the first place to fill a consumer demand niche identified by the clever entrepreneur, who then takes the financial risk to form the co. and is rewarded with PROFIT, and a lower tax rate than that on income

Reasonable, but the level of taxation should be balanced to maintain and grow a healthy, diversified economy without harming future generations. I believe we all have some responsibility here, entrepreneurs or otherwise. Sure you can pull up stakes and leave to “create” jobs in a lower paying jurisdiction, this IS playing out in Canukistan presently. It also ensures the next generation(s) of a continued race to the bottom as every other business does the same. I realize we are in an increasingly commoditized, global marketplace (I deal with this myself everyday) and that’s the reality, but at what point do we look past the end of our own nose?

The way I see it, it’s actually the consumer demand that creates the desire to form the company, which then fills that niche and “creates” jobs in the process as the entrepreneur sees a way to PROFIT from that demand (people with $ to spend). The jobs are a “side effect” of creating the company. Profit is the entrepreneur’s reward for taking risk. Companies do not exist “to create jobs”, it’s consumers with money to spend who do… and why “trickle down” economics do not work. No, I’m not a screaming “socialist”, just trying to find an ethical, balanced middle way that doesn’t necessarily cripple future generations in the process.

#113 Frank on 08.29.15 at 1:14 am

while Trudeau trumpets 3 more years of deficits like it’s a good thing

More like it’s a realistic output. We were only projected to have a surplus after a good run in commodities in 2014. With oil and other commodities at half price we aren’t going to have as much tax revenue so without severe cuts it looks like deficits for some time.

#114 OttawaMike on 08.29.15 at 1:25 am

#86 bill on 08.28.15 at 10:33 pm

Yeah Maicos were delicate creatures but also works of art from west Germany. That is why they are sought after today.

The one I still wish I had the most is the 1975 MX2 Can Am. Low pipe motocrosser that ruled the roost. My first serious bike.

Prairieboy
Latest Investment is Condor A580. Suisse WW2 bike.

I have to read about that one.

Blacksheep

Yeah those old xr75s and xr80s were bullet proof and can handle a full grown man riding them. Just take care of the cam chain and they run forever. I suspect you will still be able to find one fairly easily.

#115 pjwlk on 08.29.15 at 2:21 am

Speaking of lessons, here’s a great TED talk on the how to teach your kids financial prudence.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_VB39Jo8mAQ

#116 DON on 08.29.15 at 2:31 am

#95 Nora Lenderby

Bang on Nora!

Welcome to the blog!

Not all men are gentlemen! Most feel threatened by smart intelligent women. I may not always agree but I will do so in a respectful evidence based manner. I don’t like bullies…pushing people around (rude comments).

I am reading your comments (7 or 8 years now) Unfortunately I read all comments on the blog (well not entirely all…I do know when to scroll) let’s just call it a lesson in psychology. Herdonomics as SM refers to it.

Thank you for your insight, keep on shaming people…they have forgotten their manners and left their morals in the gutter.

Saw my first stop Harper sign and that catchy song the scientist came up with. Truth hurts…I actually can’t believe Canada is where it is…it is like we went ass backwards in time. I take offense when legislation challenges OUR Charter Rights. I promised my WW2 grandparents I would draw the line in the sand there.

Nice having you on the sight.

#117 DON on 08.29.15 at 2:32 am

#95 Nora Lenderby

Should have read.

Nice having you on the blog!

#118 Tony on 08.29.15 at 2:47 am

Re: #18 Waterloo Resident on 08.28.15 at 6:49 pm

The real estate market implodes from the north to the city core. Listings are exploding in cottage country and in the north right now. Get a clue and sell a house to one of those blithering idiots in Kitchener while you still can.

#119 DON on 08.29.15 at 2:48 am

Funny story – somewhat relevant.

Watching ET with kids tonight. Got to go back in time to 1982. Neat experience.

So…watching the part where the kids take ET in a basket on the bmx riding through the neighborhood while avoiding the government agents. At one point they are riding through a half completed empty housing development featuring rows of houses, with no siding and nature looked to be reclaiming the lots.

Freedom first – from our exchange a few weeks ago.

I understand your choice of freedom…up until a couple years ago I will on your path. I have friends doing exactly what you are to varying degrees. I understand and respect your choice of freedom.

For me it’s different my freedom has its roots in our constitution, charter and fact I will not entrust others to speak on my behalf.

Everything else to me is just an experience…time is precious…live your life on your own terms as long as your actions don’t adversely affect others.

#120 Tony on 08.29.15 at 2:55 am

Re: #23 i.see.debt.people on 08.28.15 at 7:08 pm

I also went long oil around the same time. It was easy enough to see as the calvary of the FED and all the bankers tried their best to rescue the stock exchanges. But they forgot oil and then remembered when the stock market is manipulated upward well the price of oil and the stock indexes usually move in tandem. They forgot but only for a little while.

#121 BS on 08.29.15 at 4:41 am

And I seriously don’t understand why people are so unwelcoming to women posters on this comments section.

Most posters do not state their gender nor is there a system that welcomes comments. Maybe before you make such a silly statement you should back it up with something?

Please do not mention the looser Freedom First. Hardly representative of this blog. Yes he likes to tell everyone how happy he is without women in his life but anyone can easily see he is a person making excuses for why women don’t like them. Not the other way around.

#122 Nagraj on 08.29.15 at 5:51 am

GT: “And the next round of labour stats for Canada is expected to be grim.”

Wonder how MSM will spin that? “The sun will come out tomorrow . . .”?
The NDP has no friends in the MSM universe and nonetheless looks to become the next federal gov’t. What an astonishing failure on the part of corporate media to shape public opinion.

#51 BC GUY
aptly expresses a certain anger which, I think, is widespread. Corporate opinion and public opinion: a great gulf. A rising unemployment rate will bring on the fear that will, maybe dramatically, impact the insane housing bubble. Seems to me that Canadians are angry, but not yet especially fearful.

I’m inclined to think that public mood is way ahead of lagging ec indicators like jobs stats, GDP. etc.
(A daring suggestion: I suspect public mood unconsciously ANTICIPATES future developments.)

MSM featuring Trump, Ashley Madison, what have you like Justin Bieber, doesn’t signify anything other than that corporate media underestimates its audience and greatly overestimates itself.

The public, in a sense, doesn’t need to know what it knows, nor is it at all necessary for the public to clearly articulate anything. The public is not an individual, and it is more than the sum of its parts, it’s a thing sui generis. When the public is moved to roar, and you don’t like what you hear, go home.

#123 M on 08.29.15 at 6:01 am

Gartho baby:.. repeat after me:

FED WILL NOT RISE INTEREST RATES> NOT IN SEPTEMBER>NOT NEVER if they would have a choice.

ONLY the BOND MARKET WILL PUSH THEM UP !!!!

..when ? sometimes, when herds will be sick and tired of GICs, Gov bonds, etc.

#124 Sheane Wallace on 08.29.15 at 7:08 am

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/in-rare-move-harper-talks-directly-with-poloz-about-market-upheaval/article26084979/

Harper will have his chance to explain the fiasco with the CMHC and the CAD, at least he can not hide that he is controlling his puppets and solely responsible for the credit and housing bubbles and CMHC. The good manager.

#125 Sheane Wallace on 08.29.15 at 7:09 am

The most important part is that BOC is monitoring the situation.

#126 Llewelyn on 08.29.15 at 7:29 am

It would appear that the GDP of Canada in 2015 may not exceed $1.8 trillion (USD). By the end of 2015 the total debt incurred by our Federal and Provincial governments will approach $1.180 trillion, or 66% of total GDP. For comparison the total debt incurred by the Federal and State governments in the United States will exceed 100% of GDP in 2015.

The projected deficit of our Federal, Provincial and Territorial governments in 2015 is estimated at less than $20 billion or 1.1% of total GDP. In the United States the total projected deficits of the Federal and State governments will exceed $600 billion or 3.0% of total GDP. Approximately one third of the projected deficits in the United States relate to interest that must be paid on government debt.

What Garth and his fellow cheerleaders seem to be ignoring is that even a modest increase in interest rates will have a significant impact on the ability of all governments in the United States to provide essential services to their citizens without raising taxes or sinking further into debt.

GDP growth of 3.0% in 2015 will not even cover the projected deficits to be incurred by all governments in the USA. Looks more like a zero sum game than an economy firing on all cylinders.

The Congressional Budget Office has cautioned that a combination of continued deficits and rising interest rates could increase the debt-servicing costs of government by $600 billion by 2026. They also point out that a substantial portion of current government debt has been borrowed from government agencies that require debt repayment to meet projected obligations to American citizens.

I get that corporate America is doing very, very, well these days. All I am trying to point out is that economic growth fuelled by government debt has a serious downside that is not being given the attention it deserves. As interest rates increase, as they inevitably must, all governments in the United States will find it increasingly difficult to maintain operations without raising both personal and corporate taxes.

#127 Dr. Talc on 08.29.15 at 7:44 am

here’s a great short clip that explains how we got c51
watch the RCMP at the 35 sec mark.

#128 jerry on 08.29.15 at 7:45 am

If a “Balanced portfolio” has survived this past weeks’ volitility, does it stand to reason that it will survive again during the forthcoming rounds of volitility?

#129 Dr. Talc on 08.29.15 at 7:45 am

here’s a great short clip that explains how we got c51
watch the RCMP at the 35 sec mark.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IXmIPk851g

#130 Dr. Talc on 08.29.15 at 7:46 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IXmIPk851g

#131 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.29.15 at 8:06 am

@#85 Just Checking- If you know what “rebuilding the mound” refers to, then I can understand your fear of men waking up.

@#95 Nora Lenderby- I appreciate your response. Still think you’re a made up persona though. In any event, you are operating from a false premise (or maybe you’re just trying to change the frame which is common) that if a man makes a statement such as “I’ll never get married” that therefore he must hate women.

Facts not in evidence Ma’am.

#132 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.29.15 at 8:15 am

@Garth re: BC Guy’s comments

Garth, you can’t ignore the angst in that post because it’s very real. There are many out there who feel the same. If the number of people who feel that strongly reaches a tipping point, look out.

That said I don’t think any political party can help them. There needs to be world wide reform.

#133 young & foolish on 08.29.15 at 8:23 am

“Considering it was a ‘capitalist’ paradise that blew its brains out in 2008 bringing the entire financial world to its knees, only to be rescued by an intense ‘socialism’ of tax-payer funded bank bailouts.

Socialist? Capitalist? Makes no difference. Without openness, transparency, accountability (sound lackingly familiar?) along with integrity and regulatory oversight, either one is doomed to certain failure.”

A good observation …. and it underscores the absurdity of our political situation. Be assured, our governments are determined to maintain the status quo (therefore, the wealth divide will prevail). A million dollars is just not what it used to be.

#134 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.29.15 at 8:27 am

@112 Vanecdotal- Exactly how I feel. Great post.

#135 young & foolish on 08.29.15 at 8:54 am

You only “lose” when you sell low … whether it be preferreds, bonds, stocks, or rental properties. If you are enjoying good cash flow, then you don’t need to worry and can wait out the downturns.

#136 young & foolish on 08.29.15 at 8:59 am

Question: Why do markets keep going up?

Answer: Because the keep creating more money

#137 jess on 08.29.15 at 9:05 am

Ottawa Mike

bread and circus …how ‘Juvenal’

Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

#138 Buystander on 08.29.15 at 9:09 am

“The US central bank will raise rates in either September or October, depending on the next round of data.” (GT)

—————–
And Canada will eventually do the same. That’ll be more interesting than Ashley Madison and Donald Trump.

#139 Seth Cohen on 08.29.15 at 9:20 am

Yes, bond yields don’t stand a chance going up of coarse.

All the fixed income and interest rate analysts and so called forecasters were wrong, are wrong and are still so wrong.

#140 Nagraj on 08.29.15 at 9:21 am

#109 JOHN
Your Tacoma Bridge collapse (1940) metaphor beats the current roller coaster stock mkt metaphors by a country mile – what a hoot, there’s something hopelessly funny about that bridge thoughtfully twisting itself into bits and pieces.
– because no human lives were lost. There was however a canine fatality. The guy in charge of the dog wasn’t its owner. Strangers’ attempts to save the dog failed. Why in the world didn’t they just let it out of the car?
How do you feel about the Hindenburg?

#141 young & foolish on 08.29.15 at 9:41 am

Nothing new on this blog …. just more of the same “you’re with us or you’re not” blind devotion to “dysfunctional capitalism”.

People are coming around to the idea that when the economy is no longer working for them then time for real change may be at hand. Dippers are beginning to get traction here and across the Eurozone. Scarry? Yes! Meanwhile, the US is still mesmerized by Donald Trump and “gun culture”. The have a better “bread & circuses” act than anybody else to keep their 99%ers at bay.

Boom and busts continue (stay invested).

#142 Estrella on 08.29.15 at 9:45 am

Boo. It’s Saturday. No blog post. No wringing of hand and comiseration of fortunes, or lack their of. While the socialists go to sleep with dancing sugar plum NDP in their heads, the rest of us wait to see the cards drop.

I don’t usually quote the SUN. But here is an article all the NDP people should read.

http://www.torontosun.com/2015/08/25/manitobas-warning-dont-vote-ndp?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=recommend-button&utm_campaign=Manitoba%E2%80%99s+warning%3A+Don%E2%80%99t+vote+NDP%21

#143 Afghan Muttison on 08.29.15 at 9:56 am

“Life is short. Cheat on your dog.”

Dear Mr. Turner – Account #3144910101806

We are the sister agency of Ashley Madison which you are familiar with from your online activity the last three years.

As a result of hacking attacks, we are advising you that your personal information is now available on the dark web. (As opposed to the ‘dim web’, which refers to this comment section)

For three years you have been cheating on Bandit, those files will demonstrate conclusively.

Taking long walks in the park together with your new hairy flirt, picking up the poop of a new four-legged fling, scratching your new companions behind the ears and buying milkbones for other dogs while faithful Bandit stays at home wondering where you are is hardly the sign of an upstanding and devoted pet owner.

And seriously, what’s up with your fetish for Pomeranians!!??

(That is even sicker than asking for ‘light BDSM’ on AM.)

To prevent this information from reaching Bandit, we require a good faith payment to be made immediately.

Please send a cheque for $90,172 to Ray Novak at the PMO. He knows all about this kind of thing and will forward the payment appropriately.

And maybe you should consider spending a little more time playing with Bandit, a little less time browsing the Human Society adoption pages, you cheating bastard.

#144 OttawaMike on 08.29.15 at 10:04 am

#131 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.29.15 at 8:06 am

@#95 Nora Lenderby- I appreciate your response. Still think you’re a made up persona though. ….
————————-

Nah. she is the real deal.

#145 John on 08.29.15 at 10:08 am

So when the Poloz poodles twice cut interest rates… like wowie who Wylied into the canyon?…. In reverse, when Janet pops up interest rates, by a smidge, likely not much gyration either despite the end of the world meme being pumped. Now, if the Fed started getting religion and raised the margin debt ratio, unchanged since 1975, from 50% to 60% and next 70%, then the Wall Street gambling casinos would snap to attention, as it is so long overdue. It is there that jivers have been snarfing down on stock by-backs and arbitrage etc. Now that would be a lesson in Fed credibility – long MIA.

Maybe you should worry more about CMHC’s 95% margin limit. — Garth

#146 Dean on 08.29.15 at 10:25 am

Rich people don’t create jobs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_VB39Jo8mAQ

If they spend, they create jobs. — Garth

#147 ANON on 08.29.15 at 10:48 am

#7 MSM-Free Zone on 08.28.15 at 6:40 pm
“Socialist? Capitalist? Makes no difference.”

Right, but for the wrong reasons. Socialism also requires money supply expansion in form of promises (physical printing makes promises wothles rather quickly).
As a matter of fact, all expansions whether they’re called The Late Great _insert name here_ Empire, the Golden age of Renaissance, the _insert name here_ Revolution keep the narrative alive by the expansion of promises, up until the trust in promises is either lost (the famous hyperinflation the goldbugs repeat like broken records), or the promises disappear into thin air (the very little understood BigD “deflashun” thingy).

#148 crossbordershopper on 08.29.15 at 10:50 am

#51 bc guy is correct. i have seen it personally with many of my friends, and even my own brother.
the corporations with the help of the government, the banks, and the Canadian version of the Oligarp 175 families that control every frozen pizza we eat, the toilet paper we wipe our bum with, the price of gas we pay to drive their vehicle around. etc etc. and in the end, they chew you up and spit you up. The worst thing is immigration in Ontario, not other provinces all it has done is increase real estate prices more than interest rate decline has and lower wage prices. Lots of smart educated people come from all over the world to Ontario and live like poppers for $14 per hour. driving 12 year old cars living in the basement in Brampton. Why would any educated guy from India do that?
My summertime trip to Saskatchewan did outline that living where there is no smog, nice people, low real estate prices and jobs that pay, makes for a much better lifestyle then overcrowded Ontario.
I have a crazy one for you. my wife a first time home buyer is maxing out her 50 grand rrsp withdrawl, 2 year clear and then $3333 added to her income for 15 years after that. The house costs $129,000. Interest rate 2.19%. The all in cost is $700 per month for a 3 bedroom 1 washroom 1200 sq house. cheaper then renting. the way it was many years ago. can always rent it for 1100 per month, positive cash flow. or sell it.
either way, low cost of living and good paying jobs, not everyone works in the oilfields out west. everyone talks about oil, lots of other industries out here.

#149 jobs on 08.29.15 at 11:22 am

jobs in yvr are mostly in retail, a major company here advertised a middle manager job and got 2500 resumes. In IT/programming the jobs are slowing down, recruiters don’t spam me anymore, we have plenty of decent candidates out of a sudden.
Housing is a tale of two stories, apartments and townhouses are not selling but houses are overdid. The different is that SFH is not a single family home anymore but a multisuite illegal complex. This is the reason they don’t fail yet. Simple example
700.000 mortgage @2.5% = 3.300$ monthly mortgage – 2 * 700 = 1.900
When the rates go up 1% to maintain the same monthly mortgage will be 600.000 a 15% drop.
Don’t forget the stampede caused by media pointing a 15% drop in RE, capitulation will be epic.
September 17 baby

#150 OffshoreObserver on 08.29.15 at 11:27 am

More, intelligent support for Garth’s US interest rate rise thesis: http://ggc-mauldin-images.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pdf/150828_TFTF.pdf

#151 Nora Lenderby on 08.29.15 at 11:29 am

#116 DON on 08.29.15 at 2:31 am
“Bang on Nora!
Welcome to the blog!”

#117 DON on 08.29.15 at 2:32 am
“Should have read.
Nice having you on the blog!”

Heh…sigh…now where’s that old joke about a marshmallow and a coin box when you want it? Hmm?

#152 Keith on 08.29.15 at 11:31 am

Most people will never have this kind of portfolio, never max their TFSA, never find the discipline to invest, never get investment help, never understand markets or financial events, and never try. When reversals come and the media shouts at them, they’ll bail, take a loss and blame others. Most people have a one-asset strategy, embrace debt and ape their parents. In fairness, the biggest goals for the majority is to have a family and a nice house.

61% of Canadians favour expansion of CPP, because they know that the above is true and 20% of your working income doesn’t cut it. We have one of the lowest pensions in the western world. Conxervative response, no CPP expansion, increase the DIY pension route that is a proven failure. Idiots.

Only taxes so high as to completely disincentive personal savings will create a livable public pension system. Even so, it will be one guaranteeing only subsistence. And make no mistake, it will not be the wealthy or corporations financing it – everyone will pay more. Witness Norway’s 25% HST. Is that the country you wish? — Garth

#153 kommykim on 08.29.15 at 11:31 am

RE: #131 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.29.15 at 8:06 am
In any event, you are operating from a false premise (or maybe you’re just trying to change the frame which is common) that if a man makes a statement such as “I’ll never get married” that therefore he must hate women.
Facts not in evidence Ma’am.

I agree. The fact that most men don’t want to get married is because the system is usually stacked against them in divorce. Since a large number of marriages end in divorce, why take the risk if you don’t have to?

#154 kommykim on 08.29.15 at 11:33 am

RE: #128 jerry on 08.29.15 at 7:45 am
If a “Balanced portfolio” has survived this past weeks’ volitility, does it stand to reason that it will survive again during the forthcoming rounds of volitility?

It survived 2008, which is as good a test as any.

#155 Paul on 08.29.15 at 11:46 am

Maybe you should worry more about CMHC’s 95% margin limit. — Garth
————————————————————-
Actually it’s more like 110% limit. But what the hell in for a penny in for a pound!

#156 Renter's Revenge! on 08.29.15 at 11:56 am

“I don’t usually quote the SUN. But here is an article all the NDP people should read.” – Estrella

Yes they should. All you dippers out there have no idea what you’re asking for. Please don’t destroy our country by making the rest of it look like Manitoba. You do not want this – unless you’re poor and lazy. Once the NDP get in power, any ambitions you have in life will be met with crushing resistance, not just from high taxes but from the defeatist attitudes of people around you.

Besides, the federal equalization payment scheme only works if a few of the provinces are socialist and the rest are fiscally conservative and have successful economies. Once everyone jumps on the gravy train, it will grind to a halt.

#157 Godth on 08.29.15 at 12:18 pm

The Optimism Bias
http://www.ted.com/talks/tali_sharot_the_optimism_bias

Depressive Realism
https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/hide-and-seek/201206/depressive-realism

Here’s Why The Markets Have Suddenly Become So Turbulent
A perfect storm of failing trends
http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/94160/heres-why-markets-suddenly-become-so-turbulent

#158 Nora Lenderby on 08.29.15 at 12:19 pm

#121 BS on 08.29.15 at 4:41 am
“And I seriously don’t understand why people are so unwelcoming to women posters on this comments section.”

– Most posters do not state their gender nor is there a system that welcomes comments. Maybe before you make such a silly statement you should back it up with something?

So the narrative goes like this; Mr. T. (our esteemed host) posts a blog about a man having a disagreement with his wife about their financial future. Mr. T, in his inimitable way, goes for the jugular and snarkily tells the hapless accountant to “Be a Man” and stand up to his wife’s desires for housing bling.
(For the record, I totally agree with Mr. T’s advice and, incidentally, he adopts the same tone when advising women with fathers/partners who aren’t sensible.)

Some people who commonly post on this blog then rose like carp making nasty remarks about men who let women push them around and women who do that. You don’t see it? If you swim in this all the time, you don’t realize you’re a fish, apparently.

“gut check” said it made her puke. “Julia” got a completely uncalled for lewd comment from OttawaMike (who isn’t an idiot, believe me) and, let’s say, she didn’t welcome it. I asked Mike to apologize. He didn’t exactly but said it was a joke and perhaps kinda felt awkward.

Another apparent woman commented that I was wasting my time on people who weren’t worth it (only she said it differently). I don’t think you or this blog are a waste of time.

This isn’t Reddit or 4chan. This is a place where people can exchange ideas and learn from some well-informed people in some very widespread places. We have an interesting opportunity. Personally I think hearing diverse opinions is a real key to understanding the world.

“Please do not mention the looser Freedom First. Hardly representative of this blog. Yes he likes to tell everyone how happy he is without women in his life but anyone can easily see he is a person making excuses for why women don’t like them. Not the other way around.”

Mr. FF is a character. There are a number of established characters here. Why do you call him a loser? I respect him and his POV. His lifestyle isn’t for me, but I think he’s trying to make a valid point that you, I, or anyone should first love themselves before they can thrive and love other people. And to avoid people who are not capable of behaving as adults.

Or something.

But you make fun of Mr. FF in the same way some people make fun of women commenters. If you can explain that then perhaps I’d understand, but right now it doesn’t compute, Captain.

I don’t mean any disrepect for you or anyone else here. I actually want to learn and to contribute.

#159 Nora Lenderby on 08.29.15 at 12:27 pm

#88 Freedom First on 08.28.15 at 10:41 pm
“First, welcome to the Blog. I have already enjoyed some of your comments. Relax Nora, we will grow on you. Not sure if we will be able to give you a stiffie though.”

Ah yes, we don’t have to be so serious about everything, do we?

:-)

#160 Effluence Greasy on 08.29.15 at 12:28 pm

#109 John — “This kind of volatility is not “normal” The market is behaving like the beginnings of the Tacoma Bridge collapse”

Totally normal. Not Gaussian, but totally normal market behaviour. Mandelbrot knew this.

What were you expecting? We haven’t had a market break since September 2011… a historically long time without a correction. People get complacent. Even the computers programmed by people get complacent, because the algorithms typically incorporate RECENT volatility and RECENT asset class correlations. When volatility and correlations have been low for a while, they lever up. After a few high volatility days (Thursday and Friday the 20th and 21st), they dial down the leverage to keep their value at risk within parameters. Then Saturday, George from Podunk looks to see what his investments have done this week and decides to sell on Monday morning.

The media pulls out the case of REALLY BIG TYPE and sets headlines like Carnage! and Turmoil! Trump blames China. Zerohedge claims it’s a 17 sigma event. Goldbugs do what goldbugs do.

And those of us who’ve spent the last few weeks reading the technician’s descriptions of advance decline lines, fewer leaders and more laggards, and more big names 10, 15 or 20% lower than their 52 week highs, but ignored it all up until Monday? We went shopping. We bought with both hands. We bought from the algos, we bought from George in Podunk, we bought on margin using money that our banks printed for us on the spot. All perfectly normal. And it will happen again, when you’re least expecting it.

#161 OttawaMike on 08.29.15 at 1:12 pm

Nora Lenderby

I totally agree with your rant and that endangered rare species of middle aged white guys, needs to be more welcoming to females here.
Sorry to Julia if I offended but I have not heard my post discussed by her since her funny rebuttal.

Julia?

#162 Rainclouds on 08.29.15 at 1:13 pm

Justin is our man

http://bowserandblue.com/you-tube-play.php?id=40411

#163 Randy Randerson on 08.29.15 at 1:22 pm

#84 christ on 08.28.15 at 10:26 pm

Hmm, that sounds interesting. Would’ve helped me tremendously to have an investment loan/LOC last week to pounce on the cheap equities. I looked up B2B, seems like they only work with advisors. Anyone have any idea how to secure an investment loan at your local bank?

#164 Blacksheep on 08.29.15 at 1:45 pm

Dr # 130,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IXmIPk851g
——————————————————–
You can not hide the human condition…it unconsciously, seeps out.

Any body who has lost someone very close them should view this a few times and assess if their experience with a personal loss, parallels that, of the multiple parties on display in this 3:02 long video.

Both my parents died at a relatively young age and at no point since their untimely deaths 13/15 years ago, have I thought of their loss as humours, forget being able to laugh, the next bloody day. I could not imagine the loss of a child.

Sorry folks, but the world we live in, is simply not as advertized.

#165 Ogopogo on 08.29.15 at 1:49 pm

This was one of my favourite blog posts of recent memory. Garth truly rose to the occasion this week when everyone else was leaving skidmarks in their underwear.

What a tremendous opportunity on Monday to buy from panicked lemmings falling off the proverbial cliff. While savvy long-game investors like myself watched our portfolios serenely the talking heads on BNN were preaching the apocalypse to the foam-at-the-mouth masses.

Doomers never learn. But then again, without them many of us wouldn’t profit as much. So be afraid, doomies, be very afraid.

#166 Godth on 08.29.15 at 1:52 pm

#140 Nagraj on 08.29.15 at 9:21 am

I wonder where that metaphor came from?
http://kunstler.com/podcast/kunstlercast-270-gabbing-with-david-collum/

#167 Calgarian on 08.29.15 at 1:53 pm

Stock market and Oil correction happened and now recovery. Recovery in oil too.

Guess what? No drop in house prices in Calgary. Only sales slowdown. Prices are not going down in the cities. But keep writing.

#168 Calgarian on 08.29.15 at 1:56 pm

Is Nora the old Mark?

Hey didn’t Bruce become Caitlyn Jenner?

#169 Chris in Nanaimo on 08.29.15 at 2:17 pm

I sense a disturbance in the force….

Men grow a pair….women get their panties in a knot…

#170 Herb on 08.29.15 at 2:37 pm

Don’t know if I should put on chest waders and wade into the ideological swamp, or a white coat and wade into the persona‘s strutting their stuff across this site.

So I’ll go and do something useful instead.

#171 james on 08.29.15 at 2:43 pm

Mr. Harper is encouraging Canadians, at this overinflated market, to save for a first home. On the campaign trail, a key part of his party’s pitch to younger voters has been increasing the home ownership rate, currently at nearly 70 per cent. This, despite the fact that Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. recently identified Toronto, Regina and Winnipeg as high-risk markets, a fear echoed by many domestic and foreign economists, who have been issuing stern warnings about our overheated market for some time.

Encouraging Canadians to enter into an exceptionally inflated housing market, where two houses are being built for every new person added to the working-age population, may well lead to catastrophic results once the market goes into correction – as it did in the United States in 2008, when that country’s ownership rate reached 69 per cent.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/rob-commentary/stephen-harpers-approach-to-real-estate-issues-is-flawed/article26151677/

#172 jess on 08.29.15 at 2:45 pm

lessons from the “sophisticated ”

Magazine
The Mutual-Fund Scandals
January 11, 2004

http://www.bloomberg.com/bw/stories/2004-01-11/the-mutual-fund-scandals

——————

#173 james on 08.29.15 at 2:55 pm

This is a fun 10 minutes or so to watch, a debate about whether you should dive into real estate “investing”.

See the ugly smiling shark dismember the cutie hipster real estate pimp:

http://www.marilyn.ca/AtHome/segments/Daily/April2015/4_9_2015/KevinOLearyScottMcGillivray

#174 Keith on 08.29.15 at 3:09 pm

@Garth Is that the country you wish for? I will walk out on a limb and generalize. Scandinavian countries have fewer superrich and wealthy people, higher taxes across the board, less entrepreneurial economies and vastly superior public services, better health care outcomes, cleaner cities, lower crime rates and a much more secure existence for the vast majority of their populations. Would I trade a supremely low odds shot at the wealthy economic brass ring in exchange for personal financial security and a civilized society financed by everyones taxes? I’ll make that trade.

#175 Lorne on 08.29.15 at 3:15 pm

“Witness Norway’s 25% HST. Is that the country you wish? — Garth
……
Seems like we have been here before….and many people, including the people of Norway, are okay with paying taxes, if the services they receive are pretty good.
http://craigcrawford.com/2013/11/21/living-the-good-life-in-socialist-norway/

Are you okay with a 52% average tax rate and a 25% HST? — Garth

#176 westcdn on 08.29.15 at 3:19 pm

Nora
Can’t help myself. Never say never. I do like women.

#177 kommykim on 08.29.15 at 3:26 pm

RE: #156 Renter’s Revenge! on 08.29.15 at 11:56 am
Please don’t destroy our country by making the rest of it look like Manitoba. You do not want this – unless you’re poor and lazy. Once the NDP get in power….

What? So we should vote for the CONs who we know are screwing up the country or the federal NDP which _might _ screw up the country?
You can’t compare the provincial parties to the federal ones. Here in BC, the Liberals are anything but liberal, and are more like CONs.

#178 Leo Trollstoy on 08.29.15 at 3:36 pm

#172 Keith on 08.29.15 at 3:09 pm
I’ll make that trade.

When are you leaving?

#179 Bob Santarossa on 08.29.15 at 3:47 pm

#108 Vanecdotal

What you said is exactly my realtor said 3 months ago when I sold, a top 1% guy with Remax that I have dealt with for 15 years.

Don’t get me wrong, have lots of friends back in YVR and do not wish bad things on anyone…just trying to warn and pass on benefit of experiences that teach the warning signs.

Current YVR reminds me of pre ’81 or so real estate fervor before the crash…well, decimation was more like it.

#180 Retired Boomer - WI on 08.29.15 at 4:03 pm

Americans have had Federal Tax rates ranging from 92% to as low as 28%.

Reagan cut Federal taxes to 28%. Then raised taxes 15 times during his presidency. Still increased the Federal deficit more than all former presidents before him combined! If THAT is the mark of a “conservative” I personally want no part of it.

I do not know where tax rates should be placed. I DO believe a spending regime that increases a country’s level of debt every year is a FARCE and needs to end. Ending it either by reduced spending, or -reluctantly- increased taxation, or a bit of both.

remember, our middle class tax rates are below 2000 levels here.

Which party do I trust in the U.S.? Neither of our two majors at this juncture.

I can not give advice on Canada. I would suggest you might wish to look at which province is handling their finances the best for a start.

Past performance is no guarantee, mileage will vary.

#181 Julia on 08.29.15 at 4:07 pm

#160 OttawaMike

You have not heard from me because there was enough back and forth on the subject. I let the whole thing go and just sat back. Takes a lot more than that to offend me otherwise I would have left my job a long time ago.

Glad you thought my rebuttal was funny, that was the intent ;-)

Nora Lenderby, thanks for your posts.

#182 Hawk on 08.29.15 at 4:20 pm

For all those who love Norway so much, the country having the system they desire already exists.

There isn’t a need to change our country into some unrecognizable socialist basket case.

Norway’s mineral wealth can sustain the relative indolence and low productivity of 5 million people, plus a few more, ……..ours can’t manage the same for 35 million plus.

Canada is Canada,…….. its not Norway……….PERIOD!

#183 Washed Up Lawyer on 08.29.15 at 4:23 pm

Garth:

If you were an MP, would you advance a private member’s bill in Parliament imposing a “mercy rule” for Major League Baseball in Canada?

With the Jays leading the Tigers 15-1, there are probably a high number of folks in Michigan who are thinking that we Canucks are not very polite.

I note your view that corrections are good and healthy for a market. Are they supposed to take place in 15 minutes on a Monday morning?

#184 BS on 08.29.15 at 4:37 pm

The problem is, you live in a democracy, lol… and the majority believe in a big gov’t that will love them and take care of them and tuck them into bed at night.

I would add that the majority only want the big government if someone else will pay for it. Few people support paying higher taxes themselves unless the benefit far exceeds the taxation even if it means more social programs.

Here in BC we have had two recent revolts agains higher taxes by the middle class. The first was the HST in 2011 where it was repealed through a referendum. This would have increased taxes on services. The second was a recent plebiscite to improve transit through an increased provincial sales tax by 0.5%. It couldn’t get close to a majority to pass even though everyone agrees we need better transit and road infrastructure which the small tax increase would have funded.

In both cases people said no to higher taxes if they would have to pay part of it. The NDP likes to run on the premise the rich and corporations will pay the higher taxes for all the social programs they promise. The fact is the only viable option to collect more taxes is from the middle class. That is the majority of the population and they are the easiest to tax. They have no choice but to pay because they are not mobile like business or the wealthy. They must continue to work in Canada and buy goods. Businesses and the wealthy actually have a choice. Norway proves that the middle class must pay for social programs with their 25% VAT tax and 52% income tax rates for middle class workers in addition to all the other extremely high hidden taxes such as on fuel, alcohol, etc which are double and triple that of Canada. If social programs could be paid for by the wealthy and corporations Norway wouldn’t need these extreme tax rates on the middle class. In reality the university is not free and child care is not free in Norway. The middle class are paying for all of it but paying a premium with the government running it since anything the government administers is wasteful.

#185 Rainclouds on 08.29.15 at 4:38 pm

#140 NAGRAJ
“There was however a canine fatality”

Correct, Dog bit the potential saviours so went down with “Gallapin Gertie”

Dog’s Name? “Tubby”. Bridge? Obliterated! Sadly the engineers of the day declined to consult with subject matter experts as they “already knew how to build a bridge”Many Parallels for the un-ethically gifted CPC party.

See, if you work hard enough even a bridge collapse in another country, 75 yrs ago can be tied to Harpo…….

#186 Renter's Revenge! on 08.29.15 at 4:44 pm

“What? So we should vote for the CONs who we know are screwing up the country or the federal NDP which _might _ screw up the country?
You can’t compare the provincial parties to the federal ones. Here in BC, the Liberals are anything but liberal, and are more like CONs.” – KommyKim

I don’t know. Vote for the lesser of two evils? Better the devil you know?

I think we should have as small a government as possible at the federal level. The provinces can be socialist or capitalist as they see fit. At least that way ambitious people can escape to the capitalist provinces and the lazy communists can take refuge in the socialist provinces. With NDP as a federal government, there’s nowhere to escape and the whole ship sinks with people voting themselves other people’s money until it runs out.

#187 Lorne on 08.29.15 at 4:57 pm

“Witness Norway’s 25% HST. Is that the country you wish? — Garth
……
Seems like we have been here before….and many people, including the people of Norway, are okay with paying taxes, if the services they receive are pretty good.
http://craigcrawford.com/2013/11/21/living-the-good-life-in-socialist-norway/

Are you okay with a 52% average tax rate and a 25% HST? — Garth
…..
Absolutely, in exchange for the myriad of benefits it supplies, as Keith in #172 suggests:
“Would I trade a supremely low odds shot at the wealthy economic brass ring in exchange for personal financial security and a civilized society financed by everyones taxes? I’ll make that trade.”

#188 BobC on 08.29.15 at 4:57 pm

If bonds drop as interest rates goes up and interest rates can only go up from here wouldn’t it be smarter to put the money in REITS?

#189 Lorne on 08.29.15 at 5:03 pm

#182 BS
Norway proves that the middle class must pay for social programs with their 25% VAT tax and 52% income tax rates for middle class workers in addition to all the other extremely high hidden taxes such as on fuel, alcohol, etc which are double and triple that of Canada. If social programs could be paid for by the wealthy and corporations Norway wouldn’t need these extreme tax rates on the middle class. In reality the university is not free and child care is not free in Norway. The middle class are paying for all of it but paying a premium with the government running it since anything the government administers is wasteful.
…..
Of course, if Norway’s citizens chose to, they could simply raid the 1 trillion dollar “heritage” fund and cut taxes on present day Norwegians, and still maintain the same benefits….at the expense of future population of the country. Some people and countries choose to do this…others do not. Which side makes the most sense overall??

#190 saskatoon on 08.29.15 at 5:26 pm

#173 Lorne
#172 Keith

norway’s “prosperity” is not due to socialism.

socialism is now the parasite, feeding off the wealth generated by capitalism.

take a long look at norway’s recent history to verify.

#191 not me on 08.29.15 at 5:30 pm

‘Are you okay with a 52% average tax rate and a 25% HST? — Garth’

Whether good or bad – it’s all relative to what you get in return. You don’t see Norwegians flocking to Canada in search for a better life, do you?

Are Canadians flocking to Norway? — Garth

#192 Setting the Record Straight on 08.29.15 at 5:33 pm

@172

@Garth Is that the country you wish for? I will walk out on a limb and generalize. Scandinavian countries have fewer superrich and wealthy people, higher taxes across the board, less entrepreneurial economies and vastly superior public services, better health care outcomes, cleaner cities, lower crime rates and a much more secure existence for the vast majority of their populations. Would I trade a supremely low odds shot at the wealthy economic brass ring in exchange for personal financial security and a civilized society financed by everyones taxes? I’ll make that trade.”

Except you are not trading. You are using force.

#193 Mister Obvious on 08.29.15 at 5:43 pm

#182 BS

“The second was a recent plebiscite to improve transit through an increased provincial sales tax by 0.5% […….] people said no to higher taxes if they would have to pay part of it.”
——————————-

Wrong.

The ‘people’ said no because raising transit taxes would be putting the cart before the horse.

The transit system in Greater Vancouver is in a complete shambles because the provincial government turned over it’s management to a consortium of regional mayors who have been squabbling amongst themselves for years.

Meanwhile, the system has slowly degraded as hired hands in upper management got paid huge bucks for doing the square root of zero.

The taxpayers want the corporate and political rot fixed first. Then they will pay. Until then, the wallet is closed.

The provincial government knew this was coming. They gave the municipalities enough rope to hang themselves, and they proceeded to do just that.

Now we need a realistic plan going forward. Then we need to talk about how we will pay.

#194 Nora Lenderby on 08.29.15 at 6:16 pm

#167 Calgarian on 08.29.15 at 1:56 pm
Is Nora the old Mark?
Hey didn’t Bruce become Caitlyn Jenner?

I can assure you all my equipment is original :-)

I dunno about Mark, I worry about people with such a strange sense of the world, I really do.

#195 kommykim on 08.29.15 at 6:18 pm

RE: #184 Renter’s Revenge! on 08.29.15 at 4:44 pm
With NDP as a federal government, there’s nowhere to escape and the whole ship sinks with people voting themselves other people’s money until it runs out.

Well, the CONs seem to like to give my/your money to other people. Home reno tax credit, income splitting for wealthy parents, child care benefit cheques, over $1billion in subsidies every year to oil and gas companies, etc.
I’m gonna try the new devil instead. Maybe it’s worse, maybe it’s better, but we won’t know until we try it.

#196 Nora Lenderby on 08.29.15 at 6:24 pm

#168 Chris in Nanaimo on 08.29.15 at 2:17 pm
“I sense a disturbance in the force….
Men grow a pair….women get their panties in a knot…”

“You always sense a disturbance in the Force. But yeah—I sense it too.”

#197 Nora Lenderby on 08.29.15 at 6:25 pm

#160 OttawaMike on 08.29.15 at 1:12 pm
“I totally agree with your rant and that endangered rare species of middle aged white guys, needs to be more welcoming to females here.”

Spoken like a mensch. Sorry to be a PIA, but it’s actually important to me.

#198 Nora Lenderby on 08.29.15 at 6:35 pm

#174 westcdn on 08.29.15 at 3:19 pm
Nora – Can’t help myself. Never say never. I do like women.

Glad to hear it, luv. Me too (just probably not in quite the same way :-)

And I think men are great, BTW. People are amazing.

#199 Washed Up Lawyer on 08.29.15 at 6:57 pm

I have enjoyed the back and forth of the 3 or 4 motocross motorcycle enthusiasts over the last couple of days.

Two of the myriad reasons for my being flat broke as I approach retirement are that I bought dirt bikes for my son and horses for my daughter from their early ages. I hauled the boy and his Yamaha to Blackfoot, now Wildrose, Motocross Park (Calgary) about three times per week and the daughter to the stables south of Calgary what seems like thousands of times.

There were benefits from the expenditures that will impair my retirement (assuming I live long enough to actually retire). Kids being turfed on their mush in the dirt and sitting up to spit clay out of their mouths builds resiliency, confidence and toughness. Sort of like what life throws at you.

As a result, if something has an infernal combustion engine and a steering mechanism, the boy can fix and operate it. The 1000 pound knot head Thoroughbred that the daughter rode taught her that cowgirls don’t cry.

#200 The Big Picture on 08.29.15 at 6:58 pm

In the next ten to twenty years, things are really going to suck for homo sapiens. We will see, in the beleaguered middle class, generally falling incomes, greater competition for jobs, and life in general is going to get much worse; I mean it is going to suck harder than trying to start a Harley by putting your lips on the tail pipe.

Any job that requires analysis of numbers or other data, or taking orders, providing services, writing in some cases (short articles, annual reports, business comms), legal research, and many other white collar jobs are going to be done by software tools that are now aborning. A lot of jobs now done by people are simply going to disappear to be replaced by software tools. And forget about our manufacturing sector coming back: robots, robots, robots, and more robots.

Even the major banks are instituting large, AI-type systems that will analyze consumer transactions and interactions (such as opening a bank account) to suggest additional services and other changes to a customer’s profile. This is happening today; these systems exist. Such investments in technology will enable one person to do the work of 10 to 20 people.

Arguing about which stripe of pol to elect, or the continuous bleating about the need to protect jobs is going to be as futile as re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic. While we continue to be preoccupied by our expectations of fair treatment, the supposed role of government as protectors, and the preservation of a way of life that is simply untenable, we are not seeing the massive changes that are going to overtake us.

Simply put, life is not fair, nor has it ever been thus. The only thing that offers some protection is to be prepared and be as self-sufficient as possible. It makes a lot of sense to follow the recommendations that Garth Turner espouses: invest wisely, spend wisely, and hire good help. And start early so that you can finish early; being 55 years old when you finally figure this stuff out is decades too late.

#201 Estrella on 08.29.15 at 7:24 pm

Nora and Julia. Good for you. I usually skip any immature posts, but it is important to establish a female presence. After all women tend to keep things civilized, even when dealing with Dawgs.

#202 OttawaMike on 08.29.15 at 7:38 pm

#197 Washed Up Lawyer on 08.29.15 at 6:57 pm

Also, Horses are much more dangerous than motocross bikes –– contrary to popular opinion.

An machine is somewhat predictable, whereas sitting high up on a skittish herd animal, that can bolt at something as innocuous as the sight of a floating plastic bag, is not.

#203 Shawn on 08.29.15 at 7:45 pm

The Little Brain…

#198 The Big Picture on 08.29.15 at 6:58 pm said
In the next ten to twenty years, things are really going to suck for homo sapiens. We will see, in the beleaguered middle class, generally falling incomes, greater competition for jobs, and life in general is going to get much worse; I mean it is going to suck harder than trying to start a Harley by putting your lips on the tail pipe.

Any job that requires analysis of numbers or other data, or taking orders, providing services, writing in some cases (short articles, annual reports, business comms), legal research, and many other white collar jobs are going to be done by software tools that are now aborning. A lot of jobs now done by people are simply going to disappear to be replaced by software tools. And forget about our manufacturing sector coming back: robots, robots, robots, and more robots.

*****************************************
You are describing a massive increase in productivity.

If you are right output per capita should rise a lot.

Question is, will “the middle class” get their share?

More relevant: Will YOU get your share?

You might, either through taxing the owners of the corporations who will produce so much with so few workers or (more assuredly) by being an owner of such corporations.

The conclusion is clear: OWN Equity shares.

The stock market is the middle class’s ticket to being owners of corporations. Buy equity shares or risk the sucky life described above.

#204 Shawn on 08.29.15 at 7:51 pm

Why Do Stock Markets Go Up?

#136 young & foolish on 08.29.15 at 8:59 am asked:

Question: Why do markets keep going up?

Answer: Because the keep creating more money

**************************************
That is correct if you mean because companies keep making more money.

If you mean it’s because of money printing and inflation, well yes, inflation is part of it but stock markets return more than inflation over the years because companies keep growing their profits and usually they pay dividends on top of that.

If you have missed out thus far, then change your approach NOW.

#205 Nora Lenderby on 08.29.15 at 7:53 pm

#131 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.29.15 at 8:06 am
@#95 Nora Lenderby- I appreciate your response. Still think you’re a made up persona though. In any event, you are operating from a false premise (or maybe you’re just trying to change the frame which is common) that if a man makes a statement such as “I’ll never get married” that therefore he must hate women.
Facts not in evidence Ma’am.

“Made up persona?” I could bore everyone with my life. It’s not that important. I’m 60, retired computer jockey, born in England. I try really hard not to be an idiot and to keep myself informed.

I have no problem that someone doesn’t want to get married. There has to be some provision for the welfare of children, though. In the past so many people walked away from their families (including one of my grandfathers) that governments decided, for social policy reasons, to have the rules we have today. And yes, these rules can be oppressive. Rules usually are the result of the failure of people to behave well.

I think people should be careful who they shack up with – I wish I had been :-) However it’s usually useless to tell young people that…Humanity has a Prime Directive.

And I think everyone deserves respect.

#206 VICTORIA TEA PARTY on 08.29.15 at 8:01 pm

GENGHIS KHAN: GOOD, MR. HARPER: BAD (BECAUSE NDP & LIBERAL SUPPORTERS SAY SO!)

#1 Gabe

NDP and Liberal supporters just can’t get over seeing Conservative party conspiracies under every rock and bed.

It is normal for a responsible government leader in a democracy to consult with his central bank head from time to time. I’m sure Mr. Obama and Mr. Cameron do as well. Why shouldn’t Mr. Harper?

The PM is also an economist unless you’ve forgotten while your left-wing fantasies seek to conjure up pie-in-the-sky for one and all if Mulcair or Trudeau win on October 19th.

While central banks are independent of political pressure in theory in fact central bankers have been looking over their shoulders, at the governments they serve for some time now, especially since the onset of the GFC in 2008.

This is not the same thing as politicizing the central bank and/or its bankers.

It’s just that so much consumer confidence and outcomes arise from their decision making.

That’s why the US Fed, the central bank to the world in fact, has held off raising rates, even by a smidge, for almost a decade. The Fed really worries about bad outcomes.

So, to insinuate that Mr. Harper would “politicize” the Bank of Canada is simply a brain dead notion. Period.

BTW, those opposed to Mr. Harper are amongst the most enraged, ignorant and besotted paranoid ninnies I’ve ever had the displeasure of “listening to.” They’re everywhere!

In BC, they are the same ones who excoriated Christy Clark as she was seeking re-election in 2013. They and the media all swore on a stack of empty Spam cans that she was done.

She WON!

To now listen to these same mouth breathers, calling open line radio these days for example, you’d think Genghis Khan was a brilliant democrat and overall good guy while he was pillaging the Central Asian world; as well as Joe Stalin who killed millions of his people because of his insanity; and Hitler…

Give it a rest.

Mr. Harper was elected fair and square and this October he may be unelected fair and square.

The voters will decide, all of us.

Meanwhile, kindly pay attention to St. Garth of a “stitch-in-time-saves-nine” if you want any kind of decent financial future.

Otherwise, dream on about how the NDP or Liberals will rescue you from your utter financial incompetence by:

–taxing the rich,

–the corporations,

–your wealthier next door neighours,

–and then enjoy your life-long unemployment “lifestyle” that will surely follow.

Remember, the opposition party promises, every single one, won’t be just broken, they’ll be shattered. Just wait for it.

#207 Tony on 08.29.15 at 8:05 pm

Re: #181 Washed Up Lawyer on 08.29.15 at 4:23 pm

Day trading Monday look for a very strong up day and the Volatility Index will get slamdunked hard. XIV would have been the thing to buy at the close Friday.

#208 For those about to flop... on 08.29.15 at 8:07 pm

#63 For those about to flop… on 08.28.15 at 9:12 pm
Freedom First @ all your posts .
Every time I accidentally read your crap I remind myself that there are approximately 3.5 billion females on the planet and that each and everyone of them are the luckiest lady on the planet for not ending up with you!
Stay crusty my friend…
————————–
#92 Freedom First on 08.28.15 at 10:59 pm
#61 For those about to flop….

Yes. I agree. It’s a win/win situation.

Remember, I have said if I was a woman I would still live the same way. Too many guys are high risk too. I am here to enjoy my life. Freedom First rules.
//////////////////////////////////

Hey Freedom First I’ve got to give you props for taking it in good spirit.Maybe your not so crusty after all!
Also some people were arguing the other day about the
” happy wife / happy life ” saying.
I prefer Grumpy wife / Lumpy life because if you marry the wrong one your in for a hell of a ride.
No problems on my end married for 13 years no kids ,lots of travel.
I have my freedom too ,I just choose to share it with my best friend .
Each to their own I guess ,as long as your happy that’s all that matters.

#209 Nora Lenderby on 08.29.15 at 8:11 pm

#198 The Big Picture on 08.29.15 at 6:58 pm
In the next ten to twenty years, things are really going to suck for homo sapiens. We will see, in the beleaguered middle class, generally falling incomes, greater competition for jobs, and life in general is going to get much worse; I mean it is going to suck harder than trying to start a Harley by putting your lips on the tail pipe.

…A lot of jobs now done by people are simply going to disappear to be replaced by software tools. And forget about our manufacturing sector coming back: robots, robots, robots, and more robots.

Plus transportation – professional driving of any kind, couriers, trucking, bus driving, trains could be automated. A huge potential loss of employment.

I agree with your main point, but I’m not so pessimistic. Perhaps I’m naive but I think productivity improvements are a good thing. For example mining – why should men have to risk their lives underground when they can virtually drive automated tools? Right now it’s cheaper to let people do this.

25 years ago every professional or manager had a typist and a secretary. Now people do their own typing, filing, photocoying, making coffee. I don’t see hordes of unemployed women around (they were all women). Most of them have found more meaningful employment as, oh, social media consultants, social workers or bloggers (just kidding).

#210 Doug in London on 08.29.15 at 8:30 pm

Stocks CRASH you say? What crash? I closed my eyes for about 1.2 seconds on Monday while a truck spewing out unturned diesel fumes (which burns an oil based fuel I should add) went by and missed most of it. I swear the “crash” was over almost as quick as it started. It had to be the shortest “crash” in all of the world’s 4.5 billion years of history. I still don’t know what all the fuss was about. If you should meet Warren Buffet in your travels and mention the “crash” or “correction” he’ll probably look at you quite baffled or flummoxed, wondering what you’re talking about. Why? He’s gotten quite used to calling these events buying opportunities.

#211 BS on 08.29.15 at 8:52 pm

The ‘people’ said no because raising transit taxes would be putting the cart before the horse.

Do you think if the plebiscite was for a daycare tax it would have been passed? How about a tax to build new hospitals?

It does not matter what the government does they will do it inefficiently. That includes running transit, hospitals or daycares. That is the reason why it is best to have the government run as few organizations as possible. There is no reason to have government run daycares for example. They would be run like transit. Poorly.

The point is people will never voluntarily vote to increase their own taxes (although that is exactly what they will be doing by voting NDP). All this talk of socialism is about other people paying the taxes. Not possible. The middle class will pay.

#212 Charles Ponzi on 08.29.15 at 8:59 pm

Now that the stock market crash is behind us Yellen can go ahead and raise interest rates. No more worries about the global debt crisis. China has everything under control.

The next few weeks might prove interesting.

#213 BS on 08.29.15 at 8:59 pm

Well, the CONs seem to like to give my/your money to other people. Home reno tax credit, income splitting for wealthy parents, child care benefit cheques, over $1billion in subsidies every year to oil and gas companies, etc.

They are not giving YOUR money away at all. They are letting people keep THEIR money. Big difference.

#214 BS on 08.29.15 at 9:06 pm

Absolutely, in exchange for the myriad of benefits it supplies, as Keith in #172 suggests:
“Would I trade a supremely low odds shot at the wealthy economic brass ring in exchange for personal financial security and a civilized society financed by everyones taxes? I’ll make that trade.”

Sounds like you guys need to start a new political party. It would be based on increasing the GST to 25%, 52% average income tax rate for middle class workers, tripling alcohol and gas taxes and putting the money into more social programs. Good luck.

Do you wonder why no other political party has any of that in their platform? Because people do not want to pay more in taxes! They want other people to pay. The Norwegian system is based on taxing the middle class.

#215 Setting the Record Straight on 08.29.15 at 9:09 pm

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2015/08/david-stockman/the-despicable-war-on-savers/

The Central Bankers’ Malodorous War On Savers

Well, that didn’t take long!

After just three days of market turmoil the monetary politburo swung into action. This time they sent out B-Dud to promise still another monetary sweetener. Said the head of the New York Fed,

“From my perspective, at this moment, the decision to begin the normalization process at the September FOMC meeting seems less compelling to me than it was a few weeks ago.”.

Needless to say, “B-Dud” is a moniker implying extreme disrespect, and Bill Dudley deserves every bit of it. He is a crony capitalist fool and one of the Fed ring-leaders prosecuting a relentless, savage war on savers. Its only purpose is to keep carry trade speculators gorged with free funding in the money markets and to bloat the profits of Wall Street strip-mining operations, like that of his former employer, Goldman Sachs.

The fact is, any one who doesn’t imbibe in the Keynesian Kool-Aid dispensed by the central banking cartel can see in an instant that 80 months of ZIRP has done exactly nothing for the main street economy. Notwithtanding the Fed’s gussied-up theories about monetary “accommodation” and closing the “output gap” the litmus test is real simple.”

Continued at above link

#216 Freedom First on 08.29.15 at 9:40 pm

#206 For those about to flop…

I am happy for you. Agree with everything you wrote. Absolutely right, if you enjoy your life you’re doing it right. Peace.

#217 Blacksheep on 08.29.15 at 9:41 pm

Washed # 197,

Racing MX changed my life. Shaped my personality.

It takes balls to row the tranny as fast as you can while holding the throttle wide open into an ever narrowing first turn, with 30 other Alpha fools, all thinking they are gonna out brake the other guy.

Carnage sometimes ensued.

Like your boy, wrenching on MX bikes helped me acquire mechanical skills that launched my career as as a machinist. Still ride regularly today.

If your kids getting in trouble, get em into dirt biking, they will thank you when they become adults for saving them.

#218 Sally Saskatoon on 08.29.15 at 9:59 pm

“Corrections are normal. Corrections are good. They blow off steam, prevent bubbles and reset markets at more realistic levels. Despite that, people always react the same way, because fear is greater than greed.”

It’s too bad nobody told Greenspan about the natural good of markets correcting rather than creating the ZIRP on which governments have gorged themselves on debt. Government borrowing has been a disaster for all except the civil service who have all reaped windfall increases in pay and pensions ‘while there has been so much new money around’. Too bad it’s been the savers who have to suffer and the taxpayer that has to pay it back.

#219 kommykim on 08.29.15 at 10:14 pm

RE: #211 BS on 08.29.15 at 8:59 pm

Well, the CONs seem to like to give my/your money to other people. Home reno tax credit, income splitting for wealthy parents, child care benefit cheques, over $1billion in subsidies every year to oil and gas companies, etc.

They are not giving YOUR money away at all. They are letting people keep THEIR money. Big difference.

I’m not swallowing your BS. The government needs X number of dollars to maintain infrastructure, military, police, hospitals, etc. If someone ELSE is given a tax break, it means that _I_ will pay more either through reduced services (while paying the same taxes as before) or by MY taxes or user fees INCREASING. You can move the beans around under the three cups all you want, but at the end of the day someone has to pay the piper.

#220 Cyclist on 08.29.15 at 10:27 pm

215 Blacksheep et al

A bike with a motor?

I don’t get it.

#221 Smoking Man on 08.29.15 at 10:50 pm

https://youtu.be/QI1rpt4oPjg

Nosty, another demolition fail… Should have dropped at free fall speed according to NIST…

Is NIST in the same building as the Department of USA statistics?

That would explain alot.

#222 Bottoms_Up on 08.29.15 at 11:11 pm

#95 Nora Lenderby on 08.28.15 at 11:05 pm
——————————
I have read this blog since inception and the vast majority of comments are sincere and not inflammatory and not gender biased. Sure Garth slips up the odd time and has let anti-women (and anti-men) comments through.

But at the end of the day, generalizations speak volumes about the commenters.

#223 45north on 08.29.15 at 11:13 pm

Nora Lenderby ( formerly Sue ): Plus transportation – professional driving of any kind, couriers, trucking, bus driving, trains could be automated.

I read somewhere the obvious stage would be semi-automation – that is the truck would drive itself but the driver could take over in emergencies.

Truck drivers are on a very short leash. GPS tracks their every move. 1967, I had a summer job driving a truck. Nobody knew exactly where I was.

#224 Lorne on 08.29.15 at 11:52 pm

#212 BS

Absolutely, in exchange for the myriad of benefits it supplies, as Keith in #172 suggests:
“Would I trade a supremely low odds shot at the wealthy economic brass ring in exchange for personal financial security and a civilized society financed by everyones taxes? I’ll make that trade.”

Sounds like you guys need to start a new political party. It would be based on increasing the GST to 25%, 52% average income tax rate for middle class workers, tripling alcohol and gas taxes and putting the money into more social programs. Good luck.

Do you wonder why no other political party has any of that in their platform? Because people do not want to pay more in taxes! They want other people to pay. The Norwegian system is based on taxing the middle class.
……..
Actually, people are easily fooled by believing taxes have been cut, while being made to pay “fees” for everything…and actually end up with less $ in their pockets than before the “tax cut”.

#225 Blacksheep on 08.29.15 at 11:57 pm

Cyclist # 218,

That’s what you do when you get to old (to scared?) to race MX.

I road Rocky mountains when everything was still hand built, before they sold out, Blizzard Hardtail, Speed FS (URT), and Elements FS, current ride is ETSX 70.

Ever heard of The Cheakamus Challenge, it’s another one of your, men from the boys type races. 70K long with 6000 FT of vertical gain, did it from 1996 to 2001 until the last one almost killed me from lack of training.

What’s your flavour?

#226 Mike T. on 08.30.15 at 12:35 am

Maybe we should just elect AA Prime Minister

for those who don’t know, AA is Alex Anthopoulos, GM of the Toronto Blue Jays.

Something happened at the HomerDome today and it was special.

http://m.mlb.com/cutfour/2015/08/29/146119438/after-edwin-encarnacions-third-home-run-fans-throw-hats?partnerId=as_mlb_20150829_51666046

if AA promises more of that…child subsidy stuff is going to take a back seat!!

#227 Hindenburg Blues on 08.30.15 at 12:37 am

Just can’t get “Something in the air” by Thunderclap Newman out of my head.

#228 Nagraj on 08.30.15 at 1:56 am

Well, #181 the WASHED UP LAWYER asks if corrections are supposed to happen in all of 15 minutes first thing Monday morning.

Ladies, jellybeans, and captains of industry: no matter how you slice it, that thousand point drop looks exactly as stupid as it is, and makes the mkt look like a Keystone Cops movie.

Ever alert to humorous possibilities, I was quite taken with JOHN’s hilarious metaphor for mkt volatility: the 1940 Tacoma Bridge Collapse.

So GODTH – let nobody underestimate his perspicacity – says to me: you might want to consider that the 1940 Tacoma Bridge Collapse metaphor may not have been originated by JOHN.
So immediately I’m forced to face my own naivete (for just assuming JOHN was brilliant) and now feel like Bo-Peep in that Laurel&Hardy movie where they sing “Don’t cry, Bo-Peep, we’ll find your sheep, tra la la.” (Which kinda ties in with the Keystone Cops, eh?)

[And thank you to RAINCLOUDS: I’d forgotten the name of the dog, “Tubby”.]

**********************************

In other blog news: Fer cryin’ out loud! N O R W A Y is back, with a vengeance.
And GT asks – inexplicably – why Canuckistanians aint flocking to Norway.
Gartho baby, Canuckistanians do not flock.
And for another thing, NORA LENDERBY is the only person who knows where the hell the place is because she’s actually been there. [Nora, if yas went to a gay strip club in Oslo yas mighta seen Trollo who’s now workin illegal at Bulto’s in Tronna. (He’s good but he aint human.)]

#229 BS on 08.30.15 at 3:26 am

The government needs X number of dollars to maintain infrastructure, military, police, hospitals, etc. If someone ELSE is given a tax break, it means that _I_ will pay more either through reduced services (while paying the same taxes as before) or by MY taxes or user fees INCREASING

If they cut income taxes and increase user fees both end up in government revenue. Just the people who use the services more pay more where the people who don’t pay less. Sounds fair to me.

The government can maintain tax revenue by creating economic activity even with tax cuts. The BC Liberals proved that after the NDP were thrown out last time. They cut income taxes and corporate taxes while tax revenues increased. Just watch Alberta’s tax revenue decrease after the recent round of tax increases. This has been proven time and time again.

I guess you want all the services and feel someone else should pay? Is it not time you started paying your own way?

#230 young & foolish on 08.30.15 at 7:47 am

“socialism is now the parasite, feeding off the wealth generated by capitalism.”

Simplistic and uninformed comment. This is what you get after years of simplification toward an “us vs. them” (Liberal/Con, Democrat/Republican) diversion from how the world actually works.

#231 Bob Santarossa on 08.30.15 at 7:53 am

#227 BS

Not a dipper here but careful with the facts. Under the Republican President Eisenhauer upper tax bracket at 70% marginal tax rate and tax revenue and GDP went up.

Reagan and his upper income trickle down tax cuts decreased tax revenue. After that failed experiment Reagan had to raise taxes twice. After that, revenue increased as did GDP.

Agree with conservatism when it comes to the public purse.

#232 young & foolish on 08.30.15 at 8:18 am

Ashley Maddison … a brilliant scheme designed to separate fools from their money (lots of men, and lots of fake women). Surprised?

Can you think of other “services” which are now being sold and promise you a special advantage?

Every government-run lottery in Canada is designed to separate idiots from their money by extending the probability of the unattainable. — Garth

#233 Nagraj on 08.30.15 at 8:23 am

Morgenlaune, early morning madness. RANT. (Danger! Do NOT read most of what follows literally.)

So what the hell ever happened to Wunderkind, Rescuer of Blackcrap, Thorsten Veblen (sic)? [Don’t nobody bother telling me.] Remember how gushy and all bubbly the G&Mush got when he showed up (absent a Hugin and Munin on the shoulders) to rescoo Waterlue?
[And I’m actually sorry Prem Watsa got into this at all (Main Prem Ki Diwani Hoon) I like his India Fund.]
Fine. So guess what? Here’s what. Monday morning the phone rang at the tv station (Hello, Jimmy? Yeah. Cooky here, our sales are terrrrific. Yeah? Yeah, so tell everybody, now. Sure thing, Cooky).

Mebbe the Mobilickity ex-KFC guy, Veblen (sic), Larry King AND Tim Cook could all go to a Forbes&Manhattan party and ontrapranoorialize together. I’s waitin for a invite m’self. Free food.

Years ago the newly installed head honcho of McDonald’s gave a party. Too many people showed up. A Toronto Star reporter used one of the upstairs washrooms and discovered that the toilet seat lid was a mock-up of the top half of a sesame seed bun.

Our gracious host is what I call Old Guard. Otherwise I wouldn’t have ranted here.

#234 westcdn on 08.30.15 at 8:36 am

What drives me? I was raised by a single mother – yeah, we were dirt poor. I don’t want to be in the poor house again. I learned a lot from her. She sacrificed for me. She also gave me morals which I struggle with now and again.

One of her favourite stories was when she was taking me on a bus trip and a Sheik got on. I blurted out ” Look, its Jesus Christ”. The people on the bus laughed. I was silent for a while.

Ahh, such is me. Flawed but still tying to be better.

A ‘Sheik’? Seriously? — Garth

#235 Nora Lenderby on 08.30.15 at 8:50 am

#226 Nagraj on 08.30.15 at 1:56 am
Gartho baby, Canuckistanians do not flock.

Sure they do. Don’t drive through any local strip mall the day before a long weekend. The beer and booze stores are absolutely flocking.

There were others who had been to Norway. I’m sorry I didn’t go to Oslo for the jolly nite life, I did go into a den of pizza though. It made a change from herring :-)

#236 Llewelyn on 08.30.15 at 9:04 am

#51 BC Guy

Nice try!! People that accumulated wealth during the last thirty years are not very receptive to the suggestion that there might have been an element of good fortune involved. When I was growing up my parents constantly reminded me that ‘There but for the grace of God goes You or I”.

I spent over 20 years working with First Nations who invested their substantial resources with the British Crown in Right of Canada after being promised an equitable rate of return on this investment. I discovered that a majority of Canadian citizens have not only forgotten the investment First Nations made to the Canadian economy but have actually come to resent the modest return on this investment currently being provided to First Nation members.

The fortunate tend to rationalize their good fortune by creating the myth that all one has to do is work hard, invest wisely, take advantage of opportunities as they arise. Canadians that do not take advantage of opportunities are criticized when they suggest that all citizens are entitled to a more equitable share of Canada’s ‘common wealth’. The very concept of democracy is based on the collection and distribution of benefits generated by a ‘common wealth’. What would be the point of electing a government that directed the majority of the benefits generated by our ‘common wealth’ to a privileged few?

The fortunate label the redistribution of benefits to the less fortunate as ‘socialism’ as if the provision of a basic return on investment to all citizens is an absurd notion. However as ordinary shareholders of a company these same individuals would be furious if 100% of the profits were directed to preferred shareholders or to corporate management. It is all a matter of perspective.

There is a big difference between providing a fair rate of return on investment to all shareholders and allowing a disproportionate share to be directed to a select group. The GDP of Canada represents the contribution of all citizens, even the less fortunate or those who lack ambition, and all citizens are entitled to a basic return on their investment.

#237 Shawn on 08.30.15 at 10:09 am

Lesson from Thomas Piketty – Capital in this Century

And I did read the book, the whole book.

It is described by many as a condemnation of capitalism because the rich get richer.

Take it instead as a “how to”.

And the “how to” is to be an owner. Be the capitalist.

Very simple, spend less than earned in early years in order to invest in equity of companies (stocks, ETFs, even, yes, equity mutual as a start). In later years the system will reward you. Go more of a balanced approach if you want although honestly portfolio losses in the early years mean nothing much as your annual savings may be much larger than the drop and it will recover. In later years be balanced.

There are many approaches but the key lesson from Piketty is to own capital. Own equity.

Others have pointed out that wages are not rising. Well, output is rising. If wages are not rising and prices are not falling then profits are rising. Get in on it. Or don’t, and become a whiner instead. Your choice.

If too late for you, then maybe the kids and other young relatives.

#238 Minion of the Robot Overlords on 08.30.15 at 10:45 am

Reference The Big Picture (Post 198) and Responses:

The particularly thorny problem that has to be solved is that we really are going to face mass unemployment. In the past, when automation was adopted, it was usually in service of some increased demand. For example, the Canadian Post Office was, in the early 80s, well on its way to adopting automated mail processing equipment.

It did this because mail volumes were rising and it was getting to the point that it was physically impossible to manually sort and handle mail and tell provide reasonable service in the face of increasing demand. The rather hostile unions certainly did not help matters. So, the CPO embarked on procuring tools and making process changes that enabled it to maintain service, meet the increased demand, and all the while lower its operating costs as a percentage of revenue.

And of most importance, as with other examples of automation, no one really lost jobs. Instead, capacity increased to meet demand. People were retained, people got pensioned off, and some learned new skills.

We are not in that world anymore. The world is awash in excess manufacturing capacity. Likewise, there are well-educated people all around the world who can take on all sorts of complex tasks. But, even with these conditions, companies are looking for ways to reduce costs further. Foxconn, a major assembler of Apple products, is moving towards increased automation to reduce its workforce.

Amazon has implemented robotics in its warehouses that will substantially reduce its labour costs. And if Amazon is able to get approval for the use of drones as delivery vehicles, many involved in delivery of packages will not be needed. How hard would it be to sell the idea of a solar-powered drone for delivery versus a great big diesel truck roaring along city streets?

It has to be understood that productivity increases will no longer necessarily be in lock step with rising wages or rising employment. Governments at all levels are probably going to face unprecedented demands for social assistance. Simply raising taxes may not be enough even though it will be the middle class who will have to bear the brunt of the almost certain tax increases that are likely headed our way.

#239 the Jaguar on 08.30.15 at 10:50 am

13 posts by nora lenderby

The idea is to post thoughtful commentary on the subject matter, not ‘take over’ the blog.

#240 Don Derc on 08.30.15 at 10:52 am

Step-grandmother passed away. She’s not blood so I wasn’t consulted on her “exit strategy”…but I respect that.

Sold her house and put $400K in her pocket but she then “downsized” to a 2 bdrm condo (pre-sell) 3 years ago – bought for $245K and sold (estate sale) last week for $205K after 2 price drops. Take another $10K off for the realtor. The Cdn real estate market has been “softening” for the last 3 years…big time.

Here is an email from my mom in regards to the sale:

“I spent the evening with Shauna and Ron (old neighbours). Wasn’t expecting the
barbecued steak dinner with all the trimmings but was very nice. We had a good visit.

I went over to see their 2 bdrm apt $1069/month includes balcony and outdoor parking.
Hydro approx $45/month. Nice community in there and the grounds are well kept.

I also saw a 1 bdrm – apparently $830/month – don’t know if that includes parking.

They have settled in nicely there and is good for them at this time. Ron is 76 and finally retired
last fall from working. Shauna still works 2 shifts a week.

They are watching their $ as well. Their treat is a pizza at DD’s on the day they have 25% off.
No alcohol, Shauna drinks water or they may share 1 coke.

Life in the retirement lane. Some are sharing a coke and some are booking their winter holiday next year
for 4 months. They say money isn’t everything, but it sure helps.”

heartbreaking….dd

#241 Smoking Man on 08.30.15 at 11:12 am

230 young & foolish on 08.30.15 at 8:18 am
Ashley Maddison … a brilliant scheme designed to separate fools from their money (lots of men, and lots of fake women). Surprised?

Can you think of other “services” which are now being sold and promise you a special advantage?

Every government-run lottery in Canada is designed to separate idiots from their money by extending the probability of the unattainable. — Garth
…….

I would also like to add, auto insurance, monopoly in airlines, banking, gas price rigging, just to name a few.

And let’s not forget, Woodbine casino. Olg..the tightest set slots in the entire world…and you can only buy one wine at a time… Sheesh glad Wynee has my back..

#242 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.30.15 at 11:12 am

#233
that’s the problem with a socialists paradise like Norway.
Can’t get pizza with herring.
In Canada, you can order anything on your pizza.
The customer is always king.
Ah, the pleasures of capitalism.

#243 saskatoon on 08.30.15 at 11:14 am

#234 Llewelyn

notice how the language he uses obfuscates reality.

this is typical of the psychologically unhinged mind.

it is hyper-rationalization.

“contribution” and “investment” are used to mitigate what can only be described as the initiation of governmental force (i.e., theft).

forced taxation is compared to “rate of return”–as if freely investing in and profiting from a company is somehow the equivalent of being mugged.

notice also how the word “fair” is tossed in there for good measure.

and, of course, only the “rich” call “the redistribution of benefits to the less fortunate as ‘socialism’”.

poor people don’t call it this, obviously. notice how the word “benefits” is used here to further obfuscate.

reality is twisted here:

theft becomes morally justified, and welcomed.

the initiation of force becomes charity.

this is the most dangerous type of person.

#244 Ponzius Pilatus on 08.30.15 at 11:18 am

Shawn #237
If too late for you, then maybe the kids and other young relatives.
———–
I say, let the kids play and wait for you to die a rich man and then scoop up the inheritance.

#245 Mister Obvious on 08.30.15 at 11:26 am

I’ve known many people who’ve earned good wages throughout their careers, and by their own admission, ‘just couldn’t save’.

They also admit it was never because their normal monthly expenses regularly exceeded their income. It was always because reward ‘now’ was far preferable to reward ‘later’.

It’s the classic story of the grasshopper and the ant. I don’t know whether one is ‘born’ a grasshopper or an ant or whether a leaning for one camp or the other develops early in life.

I do know this:

There are many more grasshoppers than ants. Our financial systems utterly depend upon that.

Ants are generally resented. It is assumed they have somehow cheated or gamed the system.

Grasshoppers find sympathy among other grasshoppers, and occasionally, a few ants.

Neither animal ever seems to morph into the other but both collect at this blog and argue a lot about ‘fairness’.

#246 Bytor the Snow Dog on 08.30.15 at 11:27 am

@239 the Jaguar-

Stop attacking women!

#247 X on 08.30.15 at 11:39 am

re#51-And what do you suppose happens to the cost of everything, if minimum wage gets jacked, and more jobs get unionized. LOL. Everything goes up, and you end up paying more out of your pocket.

re#152 – I would argue the idiots are those referred to as ‘most people’ in your quote of the initial post.

re#232-My father always said lotteries were a tax on the poor. Perhaps he should have said unintelligent instead.

#248 saskatoon on 08.30.15 at 12:06 pm

#230 young & foolish

this is not an argument.

try again.

#249 OttawaMike on 08.30.15 at 12:12 pm

13 posts by nora lenderby

The idea is to post thoughtful commentary on the subject matter, not ‘take over’ the blog.

————

Yeah Nora, shouldn’t you be making samiches he’s for your hubby?

Sorry. I couldn’t help myself. I’m a bad,bad man :)

#250 Obvious Truth on 08.30.15 at 12:13 pm

#237 Shawn

Simple and perfect.

Where capitalism ends or if it does nobody knows. So predicting it is a fools game.

We live in a capitalist system. Each persons belief in capitalism matters not. Making it work for you is what matters. There are ways to give back that can meet everyone’s induvidual moral mandate. Capitalism and personal beliefs do not need to align in any specific way.

#251 jess on 08.30.15 at 12:16 pm

Cross border lession e.g the word ‘guarantee’

“During the financial crisis, to avoid failure of its guaranteed
conduits, Citigroup bought $25 billion of commercial paper from them and placed them on the books of its
commercial bank. Citigroup also “chose” to bring $49 billion of unguaranteedSIV assets onto its balance
sheet, even though it hadno legal obligation to do so. Citigroup was forced to recognize huge losses on
these securities and other positions, which dramatically reduced itscapital, helped to bring the company to the brink of failure, and required hundreds of billions of dollars in government bailuts. Ultimately, Citigroup required more total
Federal rescue aid than any other single entity or firm in connection with the financial crisis($476 billion). Its
assumption of affiliates’ losses, including from nominally unguaranteed affiliates, contributed to that.
Other transnational banks –including Barclays, HSBC, Dresdner, and Bank of Montreal –also moved SIV assets onto their balance sheets to avoid reputational damage. In fact, there is a long history of parent companies taking huge losses from the derivatives trading activities of their foreign subsidiaries and affiliates, includingsome of the most infamous debacles in recent financial history.”

http://www.bettermarkets.com/sites/default/files/Cross-Border%20Guarantee%20Fact%20Sheet%206-19-14%20%282%29_0.pdf

‘de guarantee’
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/21/usa-banks-swaps-idUSL3N10S57R20150821

http://www.bettermarkets.com/blog/must-read-investigative-report-highlights-wall-streets-latest-lobbying-avoid-key-financial

#252 kommykim on 08.30.15 at 12:18 pm

RE: #229 BS on 08.30.15 at 3:26 am
If they cut income taxes and increase user fees both end up in government revenue.

User fees take more bureaucracy to administer than just collecting taxes. So you want MORE government waste?

The government can maintain tax revenue by creating economic activity even with tax cuts.

This is a fallacy perpetuated by the 1%. I don’t buy it.

The BC Liberals proved that after the NDP were thrown out last time.

I live in BC and can tell you that this is not true. The BC Libs have “balanced” the budget by selling off crown assets. Hardly sustainable. Services have declined and Provincial responsibilities have been offloaded onto municipalities and charities.

#253 Ray Skunk on 08.30.15 at 12:23 pm

Every government-run lottery in Canada is designed to separate idiots from their money by extending the probability of the unattainable. — Garth

Absolutely. It’s a tax on the hopelessly optimistic; theft from those with no self-control.

Too often at the convenience store I see patrons blowing $10, $20, $50 on scratchcards. Boom, done – in a matter of seconds. There’s the kid’s milk money for the week.

Here in Ontario on the TV, radio – non stop OLG ads trying to get me to part with my money. Apparently gambling is good, even from non-union, non-government controlled corner stores.

Heaven help me if I run out of beer at 10pm in this province. I can still go out and get a scratchcard, though.

#254 Mr Happy on 08.30.15 at 12:32 pm

“#51 BC Guy on 08.28.15 at 8:06 pm
Sure, the 1% don’t have a single-asset strategy. They have a million dollar house, …CHECK
a half-million dollar cottage, …CHECK
a million dollar balanced investment portfolio…CHECK
and a half million dollar condo in Florida. (well Mexico but…CHECK
Yup…..Nice and balanced.”

How did I get there by 55? Lived within my means, saved 20% off the gross, and once mortgage was paid off saved even more. We came to Canada with nothing in the 60’s. Worked hard. One last comment, I have seen the NDP come and go in BC since the early 70’s. EVERY time they get the boot the place is a mess. Be careful what you wish for and mark my words, Canada will be a mess after 4 years of NDP. WAY worse than anything Harper has done. Simply my opinion….

#255 jess on 08.30.15 at 12:36 pm

232 young & foolish on 08.30.15 at 8:18 am

so anon. hackers but what about these anonymous companies

http://greatripoffmap.globalwitness.org/#!/

https://www.globalwitness.org/campaigns/corruption-and-money-laundering/?gclid=CJWYyIWd0ccCFQIEaQodbIMGyw#more

#256 young & foolish on 08.30.15 at 12:53 pm

“It has to be understood that productivity increases will no longer necessarily be in lock step with rising wages or rising employment.”

I would not be the first time in history that the “captains of industry” pushed above their weight and killed the golden goose. Something better pick up the slack and put people to work, or rationalizations will begin to emerge for a new “redistribution” model and for another “new era/new deal” to come forth. Remember how quickly sentiment turned in Alberta?

#257 young & foolish on 08.30.15 at 1:01 pm

“this is not an argument.
try again.”

Just for you … it’s like Obama said:

“There are a lot of wealthy, successful Americans who agree with me—because they want to give something back. They know they didn’t—look, if you’ve been successful, you didn’t get there on your own… If you were successful, somebody along the line gave you some help. There was a great teacher somewhere in your life. Somebody helped to create this unbelievable American system that we have that allowed you to thrive. Somebody invested in roads and bridges. If you’ve got a business—you didn’t build that. Somebody else made that happen.”

Does this help?

#258 upenuff on 08.30.15 at 1:17 pm

So the boy is twenty and does not want to hear about economics and the way the world evolves through his old man’s rants….. is there one book on economics out there that I could get him to open to see the light now, as opposed to going through a life of hard knocks……?

#259 young & foolish on 08.30.15 at 1:22 pm

“Others have pointed out that wages are not rising. Well, output is rising. If wages are not rising and prices are not falling then profits are rising. Get in on it. Or don’t, and become a whiner instead. Your choice.”

Well, yes, but I think Piketty represents the beginning of new thinking about our system. He may be the first academic to lay down arguments and get big press, but he won’t be the last. Look, the danger here is that too many get left behind and become disillusioned before new opportunities arise. You can put on blinders and expect the profits to roll in, until all of a sudden, they don’t.

#260 Julia on 08.30.15 at 1:49 pm

#249 OttawaMike
“13 posts by nora lenderby

The idea is to post thoughtful commentary on the subject matter, not ‘take over’ the blog.

————

Yeah Nora, shouldn’t you be making samiches he’s for your hubby?

Sorry. I couldn’t help myself. I’m a bad,bad man :)

************************

Seriously? Of course not. Sundays we do the laundry and iron hubby’s shirts for his working week ahead.

#261 Hawk on 08.30.15 at 2:01 pm

#236 Llewelyn on 08.30.15 at 9:04 am

No people are NOT entitled to the earnings or wealth of others

There is a reasonable case for citizens of a land being entitled to share in access and usage of the land’s natural resources, (Norways much vaunted SWF being a case in point) but beyond that no one is entitled to receive what others, work or save for.

That Marxist worldview has caused untold damage to the world and most basket case countries continue as the living proof of it.

#262 saskatoon on 08.30.15 at 2:13 pm

#253 Ray Skunk

no one is stealing joe blow’s money –enabling him to buy lotto tickets.

theft involves the initiation of force (i.e., taxation).

if taxes were involved, say, in the generation of lotto “propaganda”…this would involve theft and be morally wrong.

#263 Doug in London on 08.30.15 at 2:16 pm

@ Mister Obvious, post 245:
Good post, sums it up well. Being more of an ant than grasshopper myself, I’ll add a few observations. Over the years I’ve heard many grasshoppers say things like: if I had your money I’d buy….. fill in the blanks. All the while I’d think, that’s why you don’t have the wealth I’ve accumulated. I got into a discussion with a guy I worked with, who said he wanted to buy a pickup truck for lugging various items around. I went into an explanation about how if you have a high duty cycle, meaning the load bed is used a lot then it makes sense. However if the duty cycle is low, it’s more economical to lug stuff around in a trailer instead. He replied: that’s gay, I don’t care about duty cycle, I want a truck! That goes a long way to explaining why some people can’t accumulate wealth even though they make a good wage like he did. It’s also worth noting the grasshoppers think we ants are somehow depriving ourselves. I NEVER thought that way and NEVER will, figuring I’m almost drowning in affluence in this wealthy country.

I’ve explained one side of the wealth accumulation process, namely saving. The other, equally important, is investing. To me it makes sense to buy investments when they are on sale, I understood that even when I was a teenager back in the 1970s. However, whenever there is a sale, like last Monday I hear and read a lot of people bellyaching (some on this here blog), and of some who sell, rather than going on a frantic buying binge like they should be doing.

Last but not least, not only do the grasshoppers resent the ants, thinking they somehow “cheated” to accumulate wealth, they also look for other scapegoats like complaining we pay too much taxes, high cost of food and fuel, and whatever other excuses for their inability to accumulate wealth. Keep in mind I’m not talking about poor low income people here, but rather those who were making a good wage but still have little to show for it even after many years.

#264 saskatoon on 08.30.15 at 2:17 pm

#260 Julia

you do realize that by snarking like this you are effectively crapping all over those women who CHOOSE to do this, right?

but i guess that’s all part of modern-day feminism.

sad.

#265 BobC on 08.30.15 at 2:20 pm

#257 young and foolish
Then why are there poor people? If it’s that easy why don’t they get help and become rich business owners?

#254 Mr. Happy
The only way to cure a liberal is to give them what they want.

#266 saskatoon on 08.30.15 at 2:21 pm

#257 young & foolish

nope.

not even close.

you need to learn the difference between rhetoric and logic.

#267 Doug in London on 08.30.15 at 2:24 pm

@Ray Skunk, post 253:
Funny you mention that about lottery tickets. In recent times when I’ve filled up my car at a petrol station, and while paying the attendant asked me if I want to buy any lottery tickets. I replied: no, I’ll pass, and instead buy funds that invest in oil companies because they’re on sale now! The attendant usually looks at me puzzled, like I just arrived from some distant world many light years away. Great fun!

#268 Julia on 08.30.15 at 3:08 pm

#264
#260 Julia

“you do realize that by snarking like this you are effectively crapping all over those women who CHOOSE to do this, right?

but i guess that’s all part of modern-day feminism.

sad.”

***********
It’s called kidding around, Ottawa Mike gets it.
How do you know I don’t do it for my husband at home?

Lighten up.

#269 Mister Obvious on 08.30.15 at 3:25 pm

#263 Doug in London

“Keep in mind I’m not talking about poor low income people here, but rather those who were making a good wage but still have little to show for it even after many years.”
——————————–

Yes. An important distinction.

I happen to know several nurses by association through my wife and other family. They’re career professionals with decades of seniority who have risen to high pay levels.

Every one is pathetic at managing their money. They are either deep in debt and/or working at stressful jobs long past the age of youthful resilience.

They have made every financial mistake Garth has ever pointed out and are at a complete loss to understand why they should be in difficulty.

They claim not to know where their money went. Nor is it apparent to me. They don’t seem to have been living a life of opulence and yet they have little or no savings and still hold substantial mortgages in their fifties, if they have real estate at all.

All around me are people who believe getting ahead is synonymous with making more money. Talk of saving and investment is utterly foreign to them.

Therefore, anyone with a more modest income who somehow manages to accumulate wealth clearly must have done it dishonestly.

#270 Julia on 08.30.15 at 3:35 pm

#264 Saskatoon
By the way, you said my comment was crapping on women, called it feminism and sad yet you didn’t call out Ottawa Mike’s comment as sexist?

Interesting isn’t it?

#271 Shaggy Face on 08.30.15 at 3:41 pm

Theres far too many micro-aggressions on this site. I’d like all comments related to gender changed to ‘Ze’ please. Stop referring to where people come from or what they contribute…these are statements of white privilege. You might have built this country….but it’s ours now.

#272 Munch on 08.31.15 at 2:25 am

“•Corrections are normal. Corrections are good.”

Hey Garth, wise words indeed, because they are true.

Now, when is a correction no longer “good” and when does it turn “bad”?

By stating this is a good correction you make the error of assuming that it is over or nearly over, not so?

Thank again, sunshine! This is the Big One!

Lock up your daughters …

#273 Deborah on 08.31.15 at 12:34 pm

“Between now and Christmas you’ll see why.”

Garth, you are being foolishly bold, but at least you are giving your blog readers a time line. Which I must say is new for you. For nearly a deacde you have been screeching from the hill tops saying that the sky is falling in the CDN realestate market…

Your regular blog followers either have a long term memory problem, a lust for meaningless fear mongering, or way too much time on their hands. (I suspect it’s the latter two.)

Where does this blog ‘screech’? My message has been consistent – those without balance and a one-asset strategy have assumed ever-greater risk. Feel free to ignore me. You know where the door it. — Garth